Sports Betting College Bowl Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Betting College Bowl Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
With 35 bowls to choose from, here are the line moves which have hit the most early on. As usual, we will follow these the entire bowl season and provide updates along with our choices when the games are to be played. As we say everyday, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
ROYAL PURPLE LAS VEGAS BOWL – DEC. 21/ 3:30 E ABC
(203) USC vs. (204) FRESNO STATE
The first bowl game being looked at by football bettors is in Vegas of all places. Not sure if they like USC or are just really uncertain about Fresno State’s defense, which is giving up 29 points a game and gave up more than 37 points on four separate occasions. The Trojans have been beefed up from -4.5 to -6. The Bulldogs defense has to step up as they are 41-82 ATS when they allow 28 or more points.
MILITARY BOWL by Northrop Grumman – DEC. 27/ 2:30 E ESPN
(217) MARSHALL vs. (218) MARYLAND
Marshall opened as one-point favorite and has been chased to -2.5 over Maryland. What those betting on football wonder is can Maryland score with the Thundering Herd if their offense starts cranking. However, it should be noted, Marshall’s offense is not nearly as strong in away games, scoring 34.6 PPG compared to over 52 points at home. Marshall is less turnover-prone on offense and forces more miscues on defense. Additionally, the total jumped from 59 to 61.5 for this contest. You look at the Herd and find they are 8-1 OVER off two or more consecutive Over’s and they are a prime candidate to send the total higher.
BELK BOWL – DEC. 28/ 3:20 E ESPN
(225) CINCINNATI vs. (226) NORTH CAROLINA
Both these teams’ offenses were most consistent in scoring the second half of the season and that is expected to continue. The total has been lifted from 54.5 to 57, but what makes this intriguing is Cincinnati averages 26.8 PPG away from home and North Carolina averages just 21.6 PPG in the same circumstance. Two angles to consider: the Tar Heels are 13-4 OVER if they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and the Bearcats are 15-3 UNDER off a home loss.
VALERO ALAMO BOWL – DEC. 30/ 6:45 E ESPN
(235) TEXAS vs. (236) OREGON
This might change later, but for now, football bettors are ignoring the possible emotion Texas might play with as Mack Brown is stepping down as coach and built Oregon from -12 to -14. The Ducks certainly deserve to be large favorites, yet will the Longhorns want to send their coach out in glory and play beyond their abilities. Also, Oregon could well think this bowl is beneath them.
NATIONAL UNI. HOLIDAY BOWL – DEC. 30/ 10:15 ESPN
(237) TEXAS TECH vs. (238) ARIZONA STATE
With Texas Tech finishing the regular season 0-5 SU and ATS, it is hard to fathom they will be able to play like they did early in the season when they were 7-0. I would not expect Arizona State coach Todd Graham to not have his squad prepared and the Sun Devils have been juiced two points to -14. The Red Raiders are 0-7 ATS after two or more spread losses since last year.
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL – DEC. 31/ 8:00 E ESPN
(245) DUKE vs. (246) TEXAS A&M
The total elevating from 71 to 74 should come as a surprise to nobody. There is a very good chance this will be Johnny Manziel’s last college football game and he will want to put on a show. Duke can certainly move the pigskin and all season we have witnessed the Aggies defense as a moveable object. Texas A&M is 6-0 OVER after three consecutive spread losses with the average score 83 total points.
ROSE BOWL GAME by VIZIO – JAN. 1/ 5:00 E ESPN
(255) MICHIGAN STATE vs. (256) STANFORD
With the Pac-12 thought to be a stronger conference than the Big Ten, Stanford went from -3 to -4.5 against Michigan State. While the Spartans defense is the finest in the country, the Cardinal have played in more big games than Michigan State and is getting the call in the Rose Bowl. Also, the Stanford offense is more consistent than Michigan State’s and they are 8-1 ATS on the road when on grass the past three years. VIW Take – Lean with Stanford
TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL – JAN. 1/ 8:30 E ESPN
(257) CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. (258) BAYLOR
Let’s see, Baylor led the country in scoring at 53.2 points a game and the total went from 66.5 to 68.5, shocker! Well not really. With time to heal, the Bears passing attack should be back in high gear and a name being talked a great deal in NFL scouting circles as a high draft choice is Central Florida quarterback Blake Bortles. Baylor is 10-1 OVER when the total is between 63.5 and 70 over the last three seasons.
VIZIO BSC NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP JAN 6/ 8:30 E ESPN
(269) AUBURN vs. (270) FLORIDA STATE
While Florida State is a fairly significant favorite in the title tilt, what people want to know is can the Seminoles defense stop Auburn’s seemingly unstoppable run game? The short answer is probably not and the total has been altered from 65 to 67 points. The other part of this equation is will the Tigers be able to stop Heisman winner Jameis Winston and the Florida State offense?
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NBA ATS Trend
Portland is 12-1 ATS playing against a team with a losing record this season.
CBB ATS Trend
Southern Illinois is 0-13 ATS off a home loss the last three seasons.
NHL Money Line Trend
Chicago is 13-2 after playing a game where four or fewer goals were scored the last two seasons.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
