Betting College Football – Not All Home Fields Advantages Are Created Equal

Betting College Football – Not All Home Fields Advantages Are Created Equal

By The Rocketman Sports Group

All your top oddsmakers and handicappers that have been successful thru the years have sets of power ratings they have developed thru the years. Oddsmakers use their numbers as a starting point to set lines on games and make adjustments according to public tastes, while cappers and sharp bettors trust their numbers to find potential betting opportunities to beat the odds and make money from betting on sports.

There are many extremely intelligent computer gurus who have put together predictive programs that provide a potential outcome to single football game. Opinions will vary as to how useful their material is when it comes to betting on college football for example; nevertheless, it makes for interesting reading and is fun to compare against actual results.

Among the more noted individuals in this field is Jeff Sagarin, who has published his material in the USA Today for years as well as at his website. While Mr. Sagarin has extremely useful numbers and the science to back his predictive claims, very few sharps, wise guys or oddsmakers would ever use a standard deviation of three points for every home team like Mr. Sagarin. While the Sagarin Ratings are not in the handicapping business, they are compared to sporting betting lines in newspapers and online.

In the real football betting world, there are sharp contrasts in home field. For example, does anyone really think Boise State or Oregon would have the exact same edge at home as Akron or Eastern Michigan? Of course not. There are a number of factors that go into a “true” home field compared to just “playing a home game”. Certainly having a talent edge is a big plus and bolstered by a sellout crowd over a substantial period per of time creates an intimidating atmosphere, that works in harmony. The effect of the harmony can work in the favor of the home team to elevate their play in a comfortable environment and possibly decrease the effectiveness of the visiting opponent.

Our research has the following conclusions for this upcoming season. Whether you use your own power ratings or Sagarin numbers, understand the real differences in home field matter. Here is a list of the teams with the top home field advantages.

(6 –points) – Boise State, Oklahoma and Oregon

(5.5-points) – Alabama, Ohio State, TCU, Virginia Tech and Wisconsin (Penn State will start the season at this number, but might need an extremely rare in-season adjustment based on results and attendance)

(5-points) – Arkansas, Clemson, Florida, Iowa, LSU, South Carolina and Texas

In addition, there are teams that fall below the traditional three-point number, having poor football programs, where interest is low and the only real edge is familiarity.

(2-points) – Akron, Duke, Eastern Michigan, Memphis, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Tulane and Western Kentucky

In tune bettors and sharp handicappers like those at Rocketman Sports also understand making special adjustments based on team’s history, whether they are home or away. Here are some unique circumstances from various teams that play directly into setting and adjusting lines.

• Arizona State is an increased road underdog of one-point because of their 13-23-2 ATS record as an away dog.
• Army is a standard 3-point home favorite, but it drops to -2 as home underdog with 13-23-1 ATS mark.
• Auburn and Wisconsin both go up a half a point when in the role of a home team catching points, because both schools are 8-3 ATS when positioned in this manner.
• Home teams lose a point when Boston College visits, since the Eagles are 21-11 ATS the last 11 years as road pooches.
• Connecticut is 17-5 against the spread as a home dog and moves up a whole point to -5 in that role.
• Fresno State’s regular number is 3.5, however, because they are 12-29-3 ATS as a home favorite, they fall to -2.5 based on their poor results.
• Subtract a point from any home favorite hosting the Navy, who is 26-10 ATS when receiving points on the road.
• Northern Illinois is already a 4.5-point betting choice in DeKalb, but dress up these Huskies as home underdogs, they zoom to 5.5 with their superior 10-1 ATS record.

If you want to sharpen your handicapping skills, use the type of tools the pros use to fatten your bankroll.