Week Zero in Dublin: Kansas State vs. Iowa State preview (August 23, 2025)

August 11, 2025 | rocketman

Week Zero in Dublin: Kansas State vs. Iowa State preview (August 23, 2025)

The Aer Lingus College Football Classic drops Farmageddon into Aviva Stadium, and it fits the setting: old, spirited rivals in a foreign cauldron where recent Ireland games have been razor-thin. Oddsmakers opened with Kansas State favored by a field goal-plus, but these programs have been playing one-score grinders, and Iowa State has had the better of the head-to-head lately.

 

The essentials

Item Details
Date Saturday, August 23, 2025
Venue Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Ireland
Nickname “Farmageddon”
Opening line Kansas State -3.5; ML: KSU -150 / ISU +130; Total: 49.5

The matchup is part of the Aer Lingus Classic slate in Dublin. Books opened Kansas State as a small favorite, with a total just shy of 50. Recent Ireland games have skewed close, and Iowa State has covered frequently in this rivalry even as the all-time series tilts Cyclones by a modest margin.

 

Recent form and rivalry context

  • Iowa State has dominated the recent series stretch: 5–2 across the last seven meetings and 8–2 ATS across the last ten. Four of the last five Ireland games have been decided by three points or fewer, and the under has hit in four of the last six head-to-heads. The Cyclones lead the all-time series 54–50–4 and won the 2024 meeting 29–21.
  • Another lens adds texture: oddsmakers made K-State the early favorite despite Iowa State winning four of the last five meetings overall. Long arc? Since 1989, Kansas State is 26–9 vs. the Cyclones, underscoring the rivalry’s shifting eras. Four of the last five Aer Lingus Classics have landed within a field goal.

 

Iowa State: What travels to Dublin

  • Resume snapshot (2024): 11–3 overall, 7–1 in the Big 12, 8–6 ATS. The Cyclones beat Iowa 20–19, earned a Big 12 title shot (fell to Arizona State), then edged Miami 42–41 in their bowl. They return 12 starters, including QB Rocco Becht.
  • Offensive picture: Top two WRs Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins departed for the NFL, so incoming transfers Xavier Townsend (UCF) and Chase Sowell (ECU) are tasked with filling explosive-play voids. The top two RBs are back after combining for 1,300+ yards and 15 TD in 2024, giving Becht a stabilizing run game.
  • Defensive outlook: NFL-caliber talent headlines the secondary with linebacker depth behind it. The pressure point is… pressure: only 17 sacks in 14 games last season. Portal additions on the DL will be expected to turn hurries into hits.

What it means in Dublin: If the run game travels and the transfers settle quickly, Iowa State can play on schedule and shorten the game. The defense’s ability to manufacture more heat on passing downs will decide whether they tilt the turnover margin.

 

Kansas State: The next-step bet

  • Resume snapshot (2024): 9–4 overall, 5–4 Big 12, 4–9 ATS. A November swoon (losses at Houston, vs. Arizona State, and at Iowa State) offset a hot start, though they closed with a 44–41 bowl win over Rutgers.
  • Under center: Avery Johnson returns after an up-and-down first season as starter—2,712 yards, 25 TD, 10 INT on 58.3%—and now gets Year 2 in the chair. With dynamic backs Dylan Edwards and Joe Johnson, the Wildcats can stress edges and set up shot plays. The OL has questions, but the defense brings back heft at the line of scrimmage.
  • Subtext: The program chose Johnson over Will Howard (who transferred out and flourished elsewhere). With continuity and a sturdier supporting cast, K-State is banking on Johnson’s leap to lift the offense’s ceiling.

What it means in Dublin: If the line holds up, Johnson’s experience plus the backfield’s speed can challenge a Cyclone front still searching for a higher-pressure gear.

 

Matchups that matter

  • K-State OL vs. ISU pass rush
    • The Wildcats’ protection must survive early-down run fits to keep Johnson out of long third downs. If Iowa State’s portal DL pieces pop, they can disrupt timing before the secondary closes windows.
  • ISU WR reload vs. K-State front
    • With Noel and Higgins gone, the Cyclones need quick chemistry from Townsend and Sowell to keep safeties honest. Kansas State’s returning trench experience can squeeze the run and force Becht to thread tighter throws.
  • Explosives vs. control
    • Iowa State’s profile leans to control and situational precision; Kansas State’s upside lives in explosives off the ground game. In Week Zero travel conditions, the more “on-schedule” offense may own the fourth quarter.
  • Hidden yardage
  • Neutral-site special teams, penalties, and field position are notorious swing factors in Ireland—where one-score outcomes have been common.

 

Trends and totals

  • Close-game gravity: Four of the last five Ireland games have been decided by three points or fewer. This rivalry has produced a run of one-score outcomes, and the under has cashed in four of the last six meetings—angles that pair naturally with an opener of 49.5.
  • Market lean: K-State opened -3.5 with a modest total. Given Iowa State’s recent ATS edge and defensive stability, early value-minded bettors gravitated toward the Cyclones plus the points.

 

Keys to victory

  • Iowa State
    • Win early downs with the run duo to keep Becht in RPO/quick-game comfort.
    • Generate pressure without blitzing to deny K-State’s verticals.
    • Integrate transfers fast—one explosive play from the new WRs can flip field position.
  • Kansas State
  • Protect Johnson enough to unlock designed QB movement and play-action.
  • Let the defensive front dictate—stuff ISU’s base run and make them chase explosives.
  • Tilt hidden yardage via special teams and penalties in a neutral setting.

 

Prediction

  • The vibe is tight, methodical, and physical—an Ireland script. Iowa State’s continuity and recent series success counter Kansas State’s higher-variance ceiling. In a one-score tug-of-war, the free points matter.
  • Pick: Iowa State +3.5
  • Final score: Iowa State 24, Kansas State 23