The Buffalo Bills (2-0) host the Miami Dolphins (0-2) at Highmark Stadium on Thursday, September 18, 2025, for their Week 3 matchup. The Bills are favored to win by 12.5 points.
Here are the betting trends for the matchup:
| Category | Bills | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -12.5 | +12.5 |
| Moneyline | -833 to -850 | +590 to +595 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 49.5 | Over/Under 49.5 |
| Against The Spread (ATS) | Covered in both prior games this season | Failed to cover in 8 of the last 9 games as underdogs against AFC teams |
| Home Trends | Won 17 of last 19 at home vs. AFC East opponents | Have not won at Highmark Stadium since 2016 |
| Road Trends | — | Lost 8 straight road games to AFC teams on a winning streak |
| Head-to-Head | Won 9 of the last 10 meetings | Lost 13 of the last 15 meetings |
Recent performance and context
- The Bills are 2-0 on the season and lead the AFC East. They secured a 41-40 comeback win against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 and defeated the New York Jets 30-10 in Week 2.
- The Dolphins are 0-2, with losses to the Indianapolis Colts (33-8) and the New England Patriots (33-27). They are last in the AFC East standings. Miami’s defense has struggled, allowing 66 points in two games.
- Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa performs significantly worse on the road, with fewer touchdowns and more interceptions compared to home games since the start of 2024.
- Bills quarterback Josh Allen is 12-2 against the Dolphins in the regular season and has thrown 37 touchdowns against them, the most against any opponent.
Injuries
- Dolphins: Tight end Darren Waller (hip), cornerback Storm Duck (ankle), and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu (calf) are out. Wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (shoulder), defensive tackle Benito Jones (oblique), and linebacker Chop Robinson (knee) are questionable.
- Bills: Linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral) and defensive tackle Ed Oliver (ankle) are out. Linebacker Shaq Thompson (hamstring/hand), cornerback Taron Johnson (quad), and defensive back Cam Lewis (shoulder) are questionable
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| 19 | Matt Fargo Sports | 80.00 | 53% | 8 | 7 | 0.5 |