Watford @ Norwich City

Could be a competitive match this one, Watford are not a club that gives up when there is nothing to play for, while Norwich do have something to play for, their Premier League survival.

The result of this match may end up being meaningless if Sunderland win their game against Everton, if that happens then Norwich and Newcastle United will join Aston Villa and be relegated, regardless of the final result.

Norwich are playing at the same time as Sunderland, obviously they will know the score throughout the game, but their focus from kick off will be to get all three points.

Watford will not be easy to dispatch, they are not a bad side and will be hard for Norwich to break down, Norwich have lost their last four games without scoring, which makes this all the more harder.

Norwich will have a passionate home crowd urging them on and I do expect them to finally find the back of the net, it is a shame for them that their dip in form has happened at the critical part of the season.

But while I believe that Norwich will score I also think the same about Watford, as stated above they are not a team that gives up simply because there is nothing to play for, plus their manager is under pressure and the players hold him in high regard and will want to win for him.

All things considered I see both teams scoring at least once, even Norwich and it is more likely that one of them will score twice than not, you have to remember that Norwich must score, they will go all out to score, which means that they will either achieve that or leave themselves wide open at the back as they throw men forward.

Everything is set up for this game to go overs and that is exactly what I will be backing.

Stromsgodset @ Molde

Molde have hit a little bump in the road over their last couple of games and are up against a Stromsgodset side that have hit a rich vein of form.

However, I am confident that Molde will get back to winning ways today and stop the away side in their tracks and bring the current good run to an end.

Molde are one of the top sides in the Norwegian league, they are one of the favourites to win the title and until their last couple of games they had been playing to form.

It should also be noted that one of those recent losses was in the Cup and they fielded a very weakened team, they also bounced back with two wins following a massive 4-0 loss to Sarpsborg earlier in the season and I see no reason why they cannot do that again.

Stromsgodset are on a five game unbeaten run in the league, winning four of those games and so they are clearly in form, but playing away at a wounded Molde is not the ideal game to keep an unbeaten run going.

I accept that Stromsgodset are on form, but Molde are the better team, they may be showing some signs of inconsistency, but I am confident they will get back on track today and register a home win.

Man Utd @ West Ham

West Ham United will host Manchester United in their final game at the Boleyn Ground, and can be expected to dent their opponents’ chances of a top-four finish by taking a share of the points this evening.

West Ham have been a thorn in United’s side, playing the Red Devils three times this season in the Premier League and FA Cup. The Hammers drew on the first two occasions, and United were forced to throw everyone into defence to edge past them in the FA Cup replay match. The club have remained at their stadium since 1904, and the West Ham players will be desperate to give it a fitting send-off before their move to the Olympic Stadium.

While Louis van Gaal’s men are unbeaten in their past six matches in all competitions, their performances have been inconsistent and lucky at best. Without talismanic forward Anthony Martial during their match against lowly Norwich, the United attack were toothless and posed little threat. Martial remains injured, and facing a team vying for Europa League qualification, the Red Devils will struggle to create any meaningful chances.

It is hard to see United taking a a win from this highly-charged fixture, and West Ham look good to  secure either a draw or home victory tonight.

Take West Ham to cover the spread

Partick Thistle @ Dundee United 

Dundee United’s woes are not yet over, with the relegated side unlikely to win against Partick Thistle in their final home match of the Scottish Premiership campaign.

United’s fate was sealed after derby defeat to local rivals Dundee, and their status remains uncertain after news that only four players have been told they have a future at the club. Although they overcame Inverness in an excellent 3-2 victory on Friday, a repeat performance against Partick is a tall order. A demotivated team with little to play for will probably feature inexperienced youth prospects, as caretaker manager Gordon Young decides to offer some senior playing-time with nothing at stake. 

Meanwhile, Partick Thistle’s squad will enter the fixture positively, with relegation play-off positions avoided and another season in Scotland’s top division guaranteed. They will enter as favourites for the tie, having beaten United in each of their previous three league encounters this season. Alan Archibald’s side have struggled in recent weeks though, and with a number of players sidelined through injury, a draw may still be possible.

Either way, I am confident that Partick Thistle will cover the spread on this one

New England Revolution @ LA Galaxy

LA Galaxy supporters should expect to celebrate another home victory when they host Eastern Conference struggler's New England Revolution at the StubHub Center on Sunday.

The LA Galaxy have opened the season strongly, losing just one of their eight league matches, and remaining undefeated at home. Bruce Arena’s men lead MLS scoring charts with 18 goals, and will be likely to cause Revolution’s disorganised defence some serious trouble. The team have impressed home fans with large score-lines against Real Salt Lake, DC United and San Jose Earthquakes, and are set to do so once again, with striker Giovani dos Santos in excellent form recently.

New England Revolution are unlikely to pose much of a threat to their hosts, as Jay Heaps’ squad continues to search for their first away victory of the campaign. Although often avoiding defeat, the Revolution have encountered difficulties in attack, recording a remarkable seven ties in ten matches. The coach has admitted being frustrated with their problems in front of goal, and their woes will probably continue against one of the league’s tightest defensive units.

LA Galaxy are clear favourites for the victory on Sunday, with their superior attack and defence likely to overwhelm New England.

Take LA Galaxy to cover the spread

Arsenal @ Manchester City 

Manchester City host Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium tomorrow afternoon, and will be considered favourites for the win as both teams target a top-four finish in the league.

Manuel Pellegrini will be hoping to wish a fond farewell to the City faithful with a home victory as the Citizens chase Champions League qualification, well aware that rivals United are just a single point behind. After a disappointing end to their European campaign, City will be aiming to put their frustrations behind them and retain their position. The players will be motivated to continue their efforts until the final whistle, with incoming manager Pep Guardiola certainly keeping an eye on their performances.

Although Arsenal initially boasted a strong away record this season, their recent travels have left much to be desired, including a lacklustre stalemate to relegation-threatened Sunderland. The Gunners have struggled in attack and are unlikely to frighten the City defence. Main striker Olivier Giroud has not registered a league goal since January, and rumours of a rift between Alexis Sanchez and Arsene Wenger could further disrupt their chances.

Arsenal are a team without inspiration at the moment, while the Manchester City team are keen to prove themselves to their fans after the midweek loss to Real Madrid.

All things considered I am taking Man City to cover the spread. 

Sporting Gijon @ Getafe

La Liga’s relegation battle could be decided on Sunday afternoon, with Getafe favourites to see off visitors Sporting Gijon in this important clash at the Coliseum Alfonso Perez.

Despite currently being below their opponents on goal difference, Getafe enter the fixture as favourites due to recent form. Juan Esnaider’s team earned impressive away victories against Deportivo La Coruna and Real Sociedad, and were unlucky to draw at home to Valencia after dominating for large spells of the game. Indeed, Los Azulones have already beaten Gijon earlier in the league campaign and are tipped to repeat the result once more this weekend.

Although Sporting have recorded shock home wins against high-flying Atlético Madrid and Sevilla in the past couple of months, their away form by contrast has been woeful. Aberlado Fernandez’s men have won just three times on the road this season, with the last occasion happening over Valencia back in January. Even fixtures against fellow relegation candidates has yielded poor results, including an away stalemate at already-condemned Levante.

Both teams will be desperate to avoid relegation, but with the better recent results, and Sporting’s dismal travelling record, Getafe are firm favourites to claim the win and all three points this weekend.

I am going for Getafe to win outright

Southampton @ Tottenham 

Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham Hotspur will be aiming to end their season on Sunday, with the Lilywhites looking to take all three points when hosting Ronald Koeman’s Southampton at White Hart Lane.

Despite falling just short of the Premier League title, Spurs players will be well aware that a victory would practically guarantee second-place. Significantly, the win would place the team above rivals Arsenal for the first time in 21 years, and securing the achievement in front of the home support would be a memorable result. The north London club have enjoyed an excellent campaign, and will want to reward their fans’ loyalty by ending it in style.

Southampton will be desperate to pick up a result in their bid for a Europa League qualifiers position, but have struggled on the road this season. The Saints have equal numbers of wins, draws and losses away from home, with even their recent 4-2 victory over lowly Aston Villa unconvincing. In particular, the team have conceded at least once in their past ten matches, and will likely be punished by the strong Spurs attack.

The reverse fixture at St. Mary’s Stadium in December finished in favour of Tottenham, and supporters can expect the same result again on Sunday.

Take Tottenham to win and cover the spread

Portland Timbers @ Vancouver Whitecaps

Vancouver Whitecaps will be hosting Portland Timbers at the BC Place this weekend, with the visitors looking good for a win in the hotly contested MLS Western Conference fixture.

Defending champions Portland Timbers enjoy a good record over their opponents, including last season’s semi-final play off win. Despite a difficult start to the current campaign, the Timbers have gone undefeated in the past three games across all competitions and will be hoping to continue their momentum on Saturday. Caleb Porter’s squad have yet to claim a win on the road, but will be motivated by their Cascadia Cup rivalry to turn out a positive result for the travelling support.

Vancouver have also endured a poor opening to the season, already falling to five league defeats. The Whitecaps’ leaky defence was a significant problem during their recent 3-2 defeat to New York City FC, and the team have shown little sign of improving. Although offering a reasonable home record, the advantage means little in this match-up, with Vancouver winning just one of their past seven games against Portland at the BC Place. 

Motivated to beat their rivals, and with a game in-hand over the Whitecaps, the Timbers are the pick to cover the spread.

Everton @ Leicester City

On Saturday evening, Leicester City will play their first match as Premier League champions, hosting Everton in what promises to be a goalfest.

The Foxes will be providing their supporters with free refreshments in the stands, and will hope to compliment the gesture with entertainment on the pitch. Although the title has been secured, Leicester will be aiming to add to the celebrations with a victory over Everton. Claudio Ranieri’s men scored four times in their most recent home match over Swansea, and will be aiming to replicate the result against the Toffees.

Meanwhile, Everton have been decent up-front this season, though lacking in defensive discipline and susceptible to errors. Roberto Martinez will be well aware that his job could be under threat, and will likely name an attacking line-up to spoil the party. In addition to selecting the prolific Romelu Lukaku, Everton will be aiming to capitalise on the three-match suspension of Robert Huth. The Leicester defender has played in all but one of the Premier League fixtures this season, and has been integral to the Foxes defence.

Over the past couple of seasons, every match between these teams has provided plenty of goals and I expect at least three on Saturday, probably more. 

The totals is quite high to be fair, but I am confident that these two will not let us down.

Chelsea @ Sunderland

Chelsea will encounter tough opposition tomorrow afternoon when they travel to face relegation candidates Sunderland, with a stalemate expected at the Stadium of Light.

Sunderland are usually at the bottom end of the table towards the end of each season, though always manage to remain in the Premier League with stubborn performances. Manager Sam Allardyce was brought in because of his experience in these situations, and Sunderland will be desperate to out-do their local rivals Newcastle and avoid the drop. The Black Cats have managed several draws recently against attacking teams such as Arsenal and Southampton, and can surely hold out for another point with their defensive unit hosting Chelsea. 

The Blues mounted an impressive comeback against Tottenham Hotspur earlier in the week, coming back from two goals down to hand the league title to Leicester. However, supporters should not expect the same result during the weekend, as Chelsea have nothing left to play for. Their players showed plenty of determination and passion against a rival, but with neither silverware nor European qualification an option, many will be more focused of their summer break.

Unless there any surprises, the fixture looks like ending in a draw. Chelsea’s league results are no longer important, but Sunderland will lack the attacking firepower to threaten the Blues’ defence. 

All things considered a draw is the pick

Manchester United @ Norwich City

One of the weekend’s most important matches will be contested at Carrow Road Saturday, when relegation-threatened Norwich host a Manchester United side pursuing Champions League qualification.

Manchester United are favourites to take all three points in the fixture, boasting an excellent run of form over recent weeks. The Red Devils have lost just one of their last ten matches, with opposition including the likes of champions Leicester, Manchester City and West Ham. Positive results will have given the squad a significant morale boost in their push for a top-four finish, and it seems doubtful that United will squander their opportunity against a much weaker opponent.

Meanwhile, Norwich’s fortunes are bleak in comparison, having lost three consecutive matches in which they have failed to score a goal. Defeats to fellow struggler's Sunderland and Crystal Palace prove that the Canaries will not have what it takes to threaten United, and the players seem resigned to relegation. 

While Norwich were able to edge out a victory the last time these two teams met in December, it should be noted that United were in the middle of an injury crisis at the time. With their current squad nearly fully fit and desperate to qualify for Europe ahead of their local rivals, another major upset won’t be on the cards.

Truthfully, I cannot see any other result than a comfortable United win on Sunday, most likely putting at least a couple of goals past woeful Norwich.

Take United to cover the spread

Villarreal @ Liverpool

Second leg of the Europa League semi-final between Spanish side Villarreal and English giants Liverpool. The Spaniards carry a one goal lead over from the first leg.

Will be a cracking atmosphere at Anfield this evening as there always is on a European night and I expect the action on the field to match the crowds passion.

Bottom line is that Liverpool must win and stop Villarreal scoring, however I only see one of those events happening.

I do see Liverpool winning, but I also see Villarreal scoring, which will create a problem for the Reds as the Spaniards will get that all important away goal in my opinion.

If Liverpool win 2-1 then they are eliminated, if they win 1-0 then extra time and possible penalties, if Villarreal score then Liverpool will have to win by two clear goals to progress to the final.

I am not sure how many Liverpool win by, I fear it will be by a single goal, but I do not rule them winning by more at home.

But, because I see Villarreal scoring and Liverpool winning the logic means that there will be more than 2.5 goals in this game.

The reason I see Liverpool winning is simple, they are at home and they have rested some of their key players in anticipation of this game, they will be very up for this match and backed by the crowd they will attack throughout the game, just as they did against Dortmund in the previous round.

Villarreal have qualified for the next seasons Champions league already, they did that last weekend and so they come into this game with a lot less pressure, because the winners of this tournament not only pick up a trophy but also get automatic qualification for the champions league.

So, we have two teams, both good decent teams, Liverpool have home advantage while Villarreal have the goal advantage, it sets us up for a classic European encounter, one that I am confident will have goals in it.

All things considered I am backing over 2.5 goals in this game

Hibernian @ Raith Rovers

This is a play off game between 3rd and 4th in the Scottish Championship for the right to play Falkirk and the winner of that game then plays whoever represents the Scottish Premier League relegation play off side, convoluted for sure, but bottom line, this is a very important game with the prize of a place in the top Scottish league on the horizon.

Hibernian are the clear favourites and I can understand why that is, but I disagree with it, the recent statistics, form and performances simply do not justify it.

Hibs have only lost once in their last six games, but have only won four times in their last ten Championship games.

Raith on the other hand have only lost once in their last 15 Championship games and that was against the runaway champions Rangers, add to that the fact they beat Hibernian last time they met on this ground 2-1, they held Rangers to a 3-3 draw on this ground and two games back drew with second place Falkirk on this ground, all in the last two months, you can see why I do not agree with the big odds disparity.

Raith have the form, in fact they are top of the league based on the last six games, they are at home and they have momentum, it would take a very good Hibernian side to beat them and while this Hibs side are decent, I can see no good reason why they should be hot favourites.

All things considered and the high odds on a Raith Rovers outright win, I am going for them on the money line to win this game and take an advantage into the second leg.

Tottenham @ Chelsea

The English Premier League will be decided this evening in favour of Leicester City if Tottenham do not beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

Tottenham must win, there is simply no way of getting round that and it will be a tall order against a team they have not beaten at Chelsea in 26 years, but this is not the Chelsea team of past years and neither is it the Tottenham team of years gone by.

Chelsea have been woeful this season and will end it without qualification for Europe or any silverware, quite a come down for last season's Champions, but they are very up for this game with no less than five of their players publicly stating they will not lose to Tottenham, their bitter London rivals.

Thing is this, the Chelsea players can say they will not let Tottenham win all they want, simple truth is that they are not good enough to make any sort of promise, not unless they are admitting that they have not tried all season but they will try against Tottenham.

Tottenham are a better team that Chelsea, that is a fact, they have better players, have a top class manager and are far more stable, they are not a team of ego's like Chelsea and they play for the team and not themselves.

Chelsea will come out all guns blazing but they will not be able to maintain it, they have not all season including in critical games and there is no reason to believe they can do something in this game that they have been unable to do so far.

Tottenham had a hiccup against West Brom, they should have won, but it was just one of those days, to make matters worse they have lost Dele Alli for the rest of the season through suspension, but in players like Lamela, Kane, Dembele, Eriksen and Dier, they have more than enough to over run this mediocre Chelsea side.

I do not see Tottenham losing unless they have one of them games when it goes wrong or Chelsea play like they have not all season.

All things considered I take Tottenham on the Spread.

QPR @ Burnley

Burnley will go all out this evening to beat QPR and take a massive step towards automatic promotion to the Premier League.

Burnley are now in the driving seat following Middlesbrough's weekend draw away to Birmingham and with only relegated Charlton to play on the last day of the season after this match they know that their destiny lies in their own hands.

Burnley now know that winning their last two games and they are once again a Premier League side and the riches that come with that, the idea that they could drop points against QPR seems unfathomable, but this is soccer and anything can happen.

QPR have absolutely nothing to play for, they have been win-less in their last three games which included a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of Brighton, one of the three teams, along with Burnley and Middlesbrough fighting for the two automatic promotion spots.

In theory Burnley could be promoted tonight if Brighton do not win their game, though they should, simply because Brighton and Middlesbrough must face off against each come the final day of the season.

Bottom line is I see Burnley winning this game comfortably, they have the motivation, QPR do not, they are in form, QPR are not, they are at home where they have lost just twice all season against a QPR team that have registered just four wins away in 22 games.

The spread has been set high but I do not see Burnley getting a one goal lead and sitting on it, far too dangerous and do expect them to cover the high spread.

All things considered I take Burnley to win by at least two goals covering the spread  

Toronto FC @ Portland Timbers

Toronto face yet another game on the road, their 8th this season, mainly due to Stadium work, and they have done rather well to sit in third spot in the Eastern Conference and come into this game full of momentum.

Toronto beat Montreal last week 2-0, a game I watched live here in Europe and that result will have filled the entire team with belief, especially after what happened last season with Montreal and I expect them to do well this season.

Portland have had a mixed start to their season, well, a poor one, they currently sit second bottom in the Western Conference, but the current MLS Cup champions are of course better than the standings suggest.

Portland have won twice at home, drawn one and lost once, however, last season they lost just three times at home and are difficult to beat at Providence Park.

So what we have here is last seasons MLS Cup winners having a poor start to the season at home against a Toronto side that have done remarkably well considering all their games this season have been on the road.

However, I do see the home side winning and kick starting their season once and for all, Toronto will not be easy to beat, they have shown resilience all season, but Portland are a good solid team that is strong at home and I expect them to show that this evening and cover the spread.

Man City @ Southampton

Very tricky game for Man City who need the points to maintain a top four spot while at the same time looking ahead to their Champions League second leg match at Real Madrid.

Even if Man Utd drop points in the earlier game with Leicester City, Man City would still not be certain of a top four finish, plus they would want to finish third and avoid a qualifying game to make the Champions League groups.

The problem for City is that they do have the semi final midweek and that will be on the minds of both the players and management, they have to avoid injuries for starters as well as keeping certain players fresh.

Southampton are a decent team, they themselves are looking for a European spot and a win would see them go within two points of West Ham in fifth and they will not be easy to beat on their home ground.

When you consider that City have struggled away from home, that they have the Champions League semi final midweek, that they are playing a team with their own ambitions and strong at home then you can see why a case can be made for opposing City.

The problem with that is that City have their own domestic motivation, they are finally on form, they have Kevin de Bruyne at the top of his game and driving City on.

Bottom line is this game could go either way, there are too many elements to this game to pick a winner with any confidence, but that does not mean that there is not an opportunity to be had.

For me there has to be goals, both teams cannot afford to lose and a draw could be damaging, in better words both will go for the win, both can score, that has been proven time and again and I do expect both to find the back of the net at least once.

I am very confident that this game will be over 2.5 goals and that is my pick

Leicester City @ Manchester United

The romance of Leicester City winning the Premier League today is overwhelming, but that clouds the reality on the ground and I am of the opinion they will have to wait a little while longer to be crowned champions.

That Leicester thrashed Swansea City last week should not be taken as proof that they are doing fine without Jamie Vardy, Swansea were a joke, they should be ashamed, every single professional pundit in the UK condemned them for their performance, they did not try and were clearly mentally on holiday, it was probably the worst performance all season and that is saying something when you have Aston Villa in the same league.

United must win to retain any hope at all of getting an unlikely top four spot and they are not Swansea City, Leicester are up against real opponents today and it is in this sort of game that they will miss Jamie Vardy and his speed.

But lets not kid ourselves, Leicester City deserve to be champions, they have been the best team all season and United will have to be at their very best to stop them, but that is what I expect today, I do expect United to be at their best and with a fit again Wayne Rooney  back in play they will offer up a far more potent attacking force than has been the case in recent months.

United have not been the best this season, I accept that, but they have momentum, they have motivation, albeit not to same degree as Leicester, they are at home and for me they will have enough about them to inflict the fourth loss on the Foxes this season.

All things considered I am going for Man Utd to spoil Leicester's party today.

Norwich City @ Arsenal

Two clubs that really need to get the win today, Arsenal because they need to maintain a top four spot and relieve the pressure from the fans and Norwich for their survival in the Premier League

Anything less than a win today for Arsenal and they really do open the door for Man Utd to overhaul them in fourth spot, they currently sit five points above the Red Devils, who have a game in hand, so you can see how important a win would be.

It should also be noted that a whole bunch of Arsenal supporter clubs will protest today against the Gunners manager Arsene Wenger.

Norwich are in a relegation dog fight with Sunderland and Newcastle to avoid filling one of two relegation spots left following the relegation of Aston Villa, a loss could be devastating if the other two win, which is of course possible.

So that is the context, however, there are some basic truths that have to be recognised.

Arsenal are a far better team than Norwich City, they are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League fixtures, they finally have some pivotal players back from injury including Jack Wilshere and of course they are at home.

Norwich are third bottom, they have won just three games on the road all season, they have lost their last two games on the bounce including a loss at home 3-0 to fellow relegation struggler's Sunderland.

Basically, if Arsenal play to form today, they will win and win comfortably, but will they play to form?

I think they will, they will have a hostile crowd today as their own fans intend to protest, they are under pressure without a doubt, but that is why I believe they will play to form, they will want to change the atmosphere as soon as possible, they will want to relieve the pressure and they will want to finish the season on a high and secure a top four spot, they only way they can do that is by playing to form.

Norwich may have heart, they may have desire, but they lack the talent and players to cope with an Arsenal side capable of brushing them aside, providing Arsenal are in the mood to do so.

All things considered I am going for an Arsenal win and for them to cover the spread.  

Aalesund @ Molde

Molde host Aalesund today in the Norway Eliteserien in a game that the home team will want to win after last weeks debacle against Sarpsborg.

Molde are one of the top two teams in Norway and are expected to fight Rosenborg for the title, however, last week their start to the season came decisively off the rails in a 4-0 thumping at the hands of Sarpsborg, a loss that saw them fall four points behind Rosenborg, they simply cannot afford to fall further behind.

It was not that Molde lost that game but how they lost it, losing away from home is no disaster, but to lose 4-0 is, it was a freaky result and Molde will be looking to put that right in front of their home fans today, that you can be certain of.

Aalesund will be on a bit of a high themselves, they trashed Tromso 6-0 last week and even though they have already lost four times in their seven games this season, they have shown in glimpses that they are no walkovers, in fact they lost only 1-0 away at Rosenborg and showed that against best they are not cannon fodder.

That said, this is not the game that Aalesund will have wanted this week, they would not have wanted to travel to a wounded Molde, they will know that they will spend the vast majority of this game on the back foot and must be expecting a reaction from Ole Gunnar Solskjaer men.

I fully expect Molde to win this game, I accept that Aalesund are on a high themselves but they will be facing a team that will want to repair what happened last week and Molde are more than capable of doing just that.

The spread is set quite high at 1.5 goals, but I am very confident that Molde will overcome that and win this game by at least two goals.

Sunderland @ Stoke City

A must win game for Sunderland away at Stoke City today as they fight to avoid relegation from the Premier League.

Stoke City are not doing so great at the moment, they have shipped in 12 goals in their last three games and are in a real bad slump, they may be safe but I am not convinced that they have mentally gone on holiday despite those recent hammering's, they are certainly not like Swansea City who are already on the beach.

The Stoke manager Mark Hughes is a passionate man and he will be devastated at recent results and he will have made his players aware of his anger, that you can be sure of and they will not another bad result in front of their home fans.

It should also be noted that the recent losses that Stoke City have suffered have been against a fantastic Tottenham team, Champions League semi finalists Man City and Europa League semi finalists Liverpool, Sunderland are certainly not in that bracket.

Sunderland have lost just once in their last seven, but they have registered just one win in those games, away to fellow relegation fighters Norwich 3-0 and I watched that game, they were definitely flattered by that result, in fact, Sunderland have won just twice in their last 13 Premier League games, hardly a team in winning form.

Sunderland have won just three times on the road from 17 games this season, not exactly the best of travellers, while Stoke have lost seven from 17 at home, not a fortress, but considering they are mid table it is what is to be expected.

I am not convinced that Sunderland will win this game, I expect to see a reaction from Stoke to their last three thrashings, Sunderland are not world beaters, in fact, they are a poor side, that is why they are in the relegation dog fight and all things considered, I am confident that we will see a very much improved performance from Stoke today.

I am taking Stoke on the spreads.

Crystal Palace @ Newcastle United

Relegation fighters Newcastle United host FA Cup finalists Crystal Palace this afternoon in England at St James Park in a game of critical importance.

It seems to me that the assumption all week is that Newcastle will win this game, the thinking goes that Palace have nothing to play for in the league, that their minds will be on the FA Cup and that Newcastle have the motivation.

I believe it would be a big mistake to make that assumption without analysing the context of this match.

Palace players will want to play in the FA Cup final and so will want to convince their manager Alan Pardew, that they deserve a place on the team, putting in bad performances before the Cup Final will not do any player any good.

Also Pardew was sacked by Newcastle and treated abysmally and he would love nothing more than to get a win today over his former club, that cannot be dismissed either.

Of course Newcastle are at home and have a very good manager in Rafael Benitez, they have been doing well recently beating Swansea 3-0 and drawing with both Man City and Liverpool and are a much better organised team these days.

I do see Palace putting in a good performance today, they are on a high after reaching the FA Cup final, the players do have motivation to put in good performances, the manager will have got his players up for this game based on his own personal experience at Newcastle and they will be competitive today.

Newcastle are the favourites, they are at home, they are better organised, they have taken on the top teams recently and not lost and of course have the motivation of survival in the Premier league.

Based on all that I am of the opinion that a draw is the most likely result today and that is what I am doing today.

Draw on the money line.

FC Koln @ Augsburg

Very tricky game between two Bundesliga sides that have not had the best season.

Augsburg are still in a little bit of a tricky situation, they are five points clear of relegation with three games to play and six teams below them, so in reality they look safe, but they cannot be too complacent and will be more desperate for the points today than what Koln are.

Koln are safe, they are on 40 points and because two teams below them play each other there is no way they can be dragged into relegation, there is a good chance that they will not come into this game totally on the ball, why would they, they have done what they needed to do.

Both teams are on winning runs, Augsburg have won their last three on the bounce while Koln have won their last two, so neither team carries any advantage with regards to form.

What this game comes down to is motivation, there is little to choose between them but it is Augsburg that have everything to play for and not Koln and whatever way you look at it, it is the home team that has the more motivation.

Because of what is at stake in this game and because Koln have nothing to play for compared to Augsburg, as well as having home advantage I am going for Augsburg to cover the spread.

Viborg @ AGF

Two teams that are still not safe from relegation, in fact they are in trouble, there are just seven games left in the Danish Superliga and only four points separate second bottom AGF from Viborg, so you can see what a win does for either team.

Both these teams will be very up for this game, both need the points, however, both teams are also in dreadful form.

AGF have not won a single game in their last eight league fixtures, while Viborg have not fared much better winning just twice in eight matches and one of them was against the hopeless Hobro, who sit bottom.

On form the advantage lies slightly with Viborg, but they are away and even against a team with a poor home record it is still difficult to win on the road.

I am not confident in either team to be honest, this game could go either way, however, I like the totals in this game, especially the overs.

With both teams needing a win they will attack, they simply have no choice, a win is so important at this stage of the season, but whoever scores first will find it hard to hang on to the lead, they do not exactly have great defences.

Over the season games involving Viborg has averaged 2.36 goals while games involving AGF have averaged 2.73 goals, that tells me that there is every chance that there will be over 2.5 goals in this game, certainly as much as there will not be.

But once you add the context to this game, the need for points, the fact that both teams are in bad form, the fact that the away team is in slightly better form than the home team and that the home team needs points even more than the away team, then I see goals in this game, it is a case of needs must.

Then there is the odds, despite the averages, despite the context, the odds maker make under the clear favourites, I do not get that and am happy to take their generosity on more than 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals for me.

Sevilla @ Shakhtar Donetsk

Europa first leg semi final featuring current holders Sevilla of Spain who travel to Ukraine to face off against Shakhtar Donetsk

On paper it would be easy to plump for Sevilla, they are looking to win this title for a third season running, with the added bonus of automatic Champions League qualification for the winners, something they will not achieve via La Liga this year.

But, football games are not won on paper and there is every reason to believe that the Spaniards will come away from this game with nothing.

Sevilla won their first La Liga match in six games when they beat bitter local rivals Real Betis in the Sevilla derby at the weekend, that win will no doubt send them in to this game with a smile on their faces, but it only masks the bad state of their game at this moment.

Shakhtar sit second in the Ukrainian league and are set to qualify for the Champions League, they have lost just once in their last 18 domestic games, they have won their last five Europa league games and of course have home advantage.

It should also be noted that their only loss in their last 18 games was against last seasons Europa League finalists Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk.

Sevilla are not the side they were in previous seasons, they are well beatable, their defence is no longer as strong as it was and they are now a very vulnerable team away from home.

Shakhtar are in form, they are at home, they are just as motivated as what Sevilla are and most importantly they are playing probably the weakest Sevilla side we have seen in a very long time.

All things considered, I am going for the Ukrainians to cover the spread on this game and take something back to Spain for the second leg.

Liverpool @ Villarreal

Very tricky game for Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool this evening as they travel to Spain to face Villarreal in the Europa League semi final first leg.

Liverpool are a team in transition, now and then they will produce a mighty performance, as they did at Anfield in the previous round against German giants Borussia Dortmund, but too often they show their frailties, especially in defence, just as they did against Newcastle when they squandered a two goal lead, not the first time they have done that this season.

Villarreal have done well this season in Spain, they are very close to securing fourth spot and qualification to next seasons Champions League play off's and at home have lost just twice all season and that was not against Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid or Barcelona, they actually beat the two Madrid sides and drew with Barcelona.

Liverpool will have to be at their very best and most consistent to get anything from this game, but the loss of Mamadou Sakho due to a failed drugs test is a heavy blow, it weakens their defence and casts a shadow over the whole team.

Liverpool come into this game in better form, they are unbeaten in their last seven matches in all competitions, whereas Villarreal have not won in three, but I saw Villarreal in their last game, a draw at home to Rayo Vallecano and they were very unlucky, they should have won that game in a canter, they are not in a slump by any stretch of the imagination.

All things considered I am of the opinion that Liverpool will struggle this evening, Villarreal are formidable at home while Liverpool are vulnerable and not the best travellers.

I am going for Villarreal to cover the spread.

Djurgarden @ Elfsborg

Sixth placed Djurgarden travel to second bottom Elfsborg in the Swedish Allsvenskan in a game that is already critical to both sides despite the season being so young.

Djurgarden could go top with a win if other results go their way this evening, while Elfsborg could potentially lift themselves out of the relegation zone.

A defeat for Elfsborg could see them go rock bottom and the prospect of a slump setting in and a battle to turn their season round, a loss for Djurgarden could see them start to drop behind the leaders and give them their third consecutive loss after such a promising start.

So this game is critical, it could be the start to the sort of season that each team will face, momentum is everything in soccer and these two teams are lacking it at this time.

It is not easy to pick a winner between these two to be honest, either could step up to the plate and collect all three points, but that does not mean an opportunity has not presented itself.

In four of Elfsborg five games this season there have been at least three goals in the game, in Djurgardens five opening games, three have finished with at least three goals, that tells me the prospects of goals in this game are high, but not just that.

Djurgarden can get their season back on track with a win and possibly go top, they will not playing for a draw, Elfsborg are desperate for points and you can be assured they will not be playing for a draw, especially in front of their home fans.

So, we have two teams that are desperate for the win and that will be looking to score, you have two teams that regularly play games that have at least three goals in it and you have two teams low in confidence with shaky defences.

All that points to this game going over 2.5 goals and that is my pick.

Kalmar @ Sundsvall

This game is between two teams that were very similar last season, but that has not been the case so far this season.

Last season only one point separated these teams with Sundsvall one spot above Kalmar, both teams were just above the relegation zone and are not expected to perform much better this season.

However, Sundsvall have got off to a flyer, in fact if they win this game and results go there way then they could go top.

Kalmar have had an expected start, they sit just one place above the relegation spots and have amassed just four points from five games.

Sundsvall have won their last three games on the bounce, including impressive wins over Malmo away and second placed Orebro, really really good results.

Kalmar have won just once all season, against second from bottom Elfsborg, so it is fairly easy to see which team has form and momentum and which team does not.

The odds makers have been quite generous to be honest on Sundsvall, maybe they are expecting normal service to resume, they may be right in that, Sundsvall are unlikely to maintain this form all season, but until their form drops and they start losing it makes no sense to not take decent odds when you can.

All things considered, Sundsvall are at home, they are on a three game winning run, they could go top against a team just above the relegation zone with just one win all season, then it is Sundsvall to cover the spread for me.

Bayern Munich @ Atletico Madrid

Massive game for both clubs in the Champions League semi final first leg at the Vincente Calderon stadium this evening in Spain.

If there is ever a club that is regularly under rated it is Atletico Madrid, they are never given credit for what they have achieved over the last few years and I suspect that applies in this game as well.

The Spanish side dismissed Barcelona in the previous round, a massive achievement, but it should not have been a huge surprise.

Atletico have a very good defence, a solid midfield and a forward line that is clinical, their manager Diego Simeone, has proven he is a top manager and at home, they are formidable.

Bayern Munich are no slouches of course, they are one of Europe's elite clubs, they have probably the best manager in the world in Pep Guardiola and a team full of winners, they dominate their domestic league for fun and showed in the last round that they have character and a never die spirit coming back from a two goal deficit.

So what we have here is two huge clubs with pedigree, with world class talent and world class managers, a truly epic encounter awaits us.

You can never under estimate Bayern Munich, they are formidable, but they are clearly not as strong away from home as they are at home, especially against the top teams, whereas Atletico are very strong at home.

I do not see Atletico losing at home, I believe there is more chance of them winning this game than Bayern, I do not see why Bayern can do what Barcelona did not do and beat Diego Simeone's men in their own back yard, yes Bayern are world class, but so are Atletico.

Atletico will of course do everything they can to prevent Bayern scoring, an away goal is damaging, neither will they want to travel to Munich without an advantage, they will look to score and then probably defend that until the final whistle

Bayern will probably have most possession, but that does not convert to goals against Atletico, just ask Real Madrid and Barcelona about that and the Germans will also be looking to defend as much as they can, basically we could have a chess game on our hands.

All things considered I see a very tight game, very tactical and probably low scoring and for me the value lies in backing Atletico Madrid on the spreads.

I picked Atletico to cover the spread against Barcelona in the last round first leg and I am doing exactly the same in this game and take the Spaniards to cover the spread against the Germans.

Dumbarton @ Hibernian

This is a very important game for Hibernian and one they must win if they are to have any chance of having to play an extra play off game.

A quick explanation of how the play off's work in the Championship is required here to add some context.

Rangers are already champions and automatically promoted, however, the clubs finishing 2nd, 3rd and 4th then enter the two-legged Premiership play-off. The 3rd-placed club plays the 4th-placed club, with the winner then playing the 2nd-placed club. The winner of that tie then plays against the 11th-placed Scottish Premiership club.

Now, Hibernian sit third as things stand, they are three points behind second placed Falkirk, so a win would take them level with just one game to go for both sides, but Falkirk have a seven goal better goal difference, a huge amount to make up, but a massive win today for Hibernian would see them reduce that gap.

At the very least Hibernian must win and hope they do better than Falkirk in the last game of the regular season.

Dumbarton have absolutely nothing to play for, they are third bottom and safe from relegation, there is zero motivation for them here other than pride.

So, what we have here is a home team fighting for promotion against an away team with nothing to play for, it really is as simple a that.

In 16 away games this season Dumbarton have lost 11 out of 16 games, winning just twice and worst of all, scoring just eight times, while conceding 27.

In 15 home games Hibernian have lost just once, won 12 and knocked in 31 goals, quite a significant difference compared with Dumbarton.

This will be the fourth meeting between these sides and it must be noted that when this game has been played in Dumbarton, the home side has won both games, that said, Hibernian ran out 4-2 winners when this game was played at Hibernian.

Whatever way I look at this game I see a home win all day long, not only that, I see a convincing home win, certainly by more than 1.5 goals.

I will be taking Hibernian to cover the spread on this game.

Real Madrid @ Man City

This is a historical game for Manchester City and probably one of their most important in their long history as they host Spanish giants Real Madrid in the first leg of the Champions League semi final.

Real Madrid need no introduction, they are European royalty, they have won the Champions League or European Cup as it used to called, more than any other team.

This is the first appearance for City in the Champions League semi finals but it does not mean they will be overawed by the occasion, this is what they have been working towards for a very long time.

It will be a very tough game for sure, but that applies to both sides, remember that in the last round Real Madrid lost the first leg away at Wolfsburg 2-0, they are no different to most teams when they play away from home against a top team.

Of course Madrid will have Ronaldo, Bale, Benzema and a whole host of other stars for the Man City defence to contend with, but Real Madrid will have to cope with Sergio Aguero, arguably the best player in the English Premier League, as well as other season internationals that City have in their squad.

So, we have two top teams, Madrid are slightly the better side, but they are away from home, both sides have suspect defences, but formidable front lines, certainly an interesting match up.

For me, the advantage lies with city, they are at home, their fan will be bouncing, they are in good form, they have momentum and they know they must take a lead to Madrid for the second leg.

Madrid will of course not be easy to beat, but they are not as solid away from home, they struggled to beat Rayo Vallecano at the weekend and had to come back from 2-0 down, they did lose away to Wolfsburg in the previous round and they are not exactly the most harmonious club around.

Gareth Bale is starting to come into his own at Madrid, but Ronaldo is not the player he once was and it is City star Aguero that I see as being the biggest player on the field this evening in Manchester.

If Madrid can contain the diminutive Argentine then they may come away with a good result, if they do not and I do not think they will, then they face an uphill task.

That does not mean that City are a one man team, far from it, City have a world class player in Kevin de Bruyne, he has made such a difference to City since he returned from injury and just like Aguero, if he is not contained, then Madrid will be in trouble.

All things considered I am backing Man City on the spreads and do see them getting a result they can take to Madrid for the second leg.

Hammarby @ Norrkoping

Last seasons Swedish Allsvenskan champions Norrkopping host Hammarby in a game that is already important to both sides despite the season being so early.

Norrkopping were stunned last Friday losing away to bottom side Falkenberg, who had lost their opening four games of the season.

It looked like Norrkopping did not take Falkenberg seriously in that game and thought that all they needed to do was turn up to collect the three points, they will not make that mistake again.

Norrkopping should be top now, but they sit in fourth spot and they have no one to blame for that other than themselves.

Hammarby sit in seventh spot and are doing as expected, they drew their last game, played at home, against second placed Jonkopings Sodra, a credible result for sure, but this game is much harder for them.

Norrkopping will be very motivated for this game, they are in front of their home fans and will be looking to repair the damage their loss to Falkenberg inflicted, they will want to get back to normal service and go back to the top of the table, albeit for probably just the one day.

Hammarby will not roll over, they are doing ok, but they are up against last seasons champions that are wounded and will find themselves on the back foot, probably from the first whistle.

I fully expect Norrkopping to win this game and collect all three points.

Helsingborgs @ Kalmar FF 

These two sides have had identical starts to the season, both have lost twice, drawn once and won once and both will be looking for a win to lift themselves up the table.

Kalmar have a little bit of momentum building, they are unbeaten in their last two starts after losing their opening two games.

Helsingborgs bounced back from a comprehensive 5-1 thrashing at the hands of Hammarby to register a home win over Falkenberg and will be looking to build on that.

Kalmar are the favourites here, they are at home and have the better momentum behind them, but I am not that confident that they will win, I am not saying that they will not, I am saying that my confidence in them is not high.

I have even less confidence in Helsingborgs getting the win and it would be guesswork to plump for the draw, but that does not mean that there is not an opportunity here.

Both teams want the win, a draw, even at this early stage, is not the best outcome, Kalmar have the edge and will want to continue their current run, especially in front of their home fans, but Helsingborgs will also want to build on their recent win, this to me means that both will be looking to find the back of the net.

All things considered I see goals in this game, even when Helsingborgs got thrashed at Hammarby they still scored and Kalmar where involved in a five goal thriller last time they were at home.

Therefore I am going for over 2.5 goals in this game.

Stabaek @ Haugesund

Still early days in the Norway Eliteserien, but patterns are starting to develop and the way these two teams have started the season is very telling.

Stabaek have won just once in their six games, drawn once and lost four, whereas Haugesund have won on three occasions, drawn once and lost twice, quite easy to see who has had the better start.

Haugesund remain unbeaten at home, while Stabaek have not won away, though in all fairness they have played just two games apiece at home and away respectively.

The question for me is do I see that pattern changing this evening and the answer is I do not, I cannot see Stabaek wining and I do see Haugesund collecting all three points.

Stabaek are expected to be fighting relegation this season, they may well stay up as there are teams inferior to them, however, they are not considered one of the better Norwegian sides, that said, neither are Haugesund, but they are expected to be a mid table team and do have an outside chance of making the top three.

For me this looks like it will be  a home win and I am confident that is what the result will be come the final whistle.

AC Milan @ Verona

Milan have been handed a great opportunity here to close the gap on Fiorentina and move to within three points of fifth place.

They face off against the bottom team in Serie A  and though Verona have not yet been relegated, the outlook for them does look bleak.

Milan have changed manager this season after yet another disappointing campaign, though they do face Juventus in the Italian Cup final so may end up with some silverware this season, but it is their league position that has been the biggest concern.

Verona may be fighting for their Serie A survival but with just four games to go, including this one, they are 10 points from safety, so a loss this evening would see them relegated.

So what we have is a team that has been inconsistent this season in Milan who are looking to improve their league position and build up some momentum before the Cup final against a team that will be relegated if they do not win this evening.

That tells me that Verona must score, that they must attack, which will leave them open to counter attack, it will also breed nervousness and anxiety among both the players and fans.

All things considered I think that Verona are cooked, that they will be relegated today and take AC Milan to get the win and cover the spread.

Napoli @ Roma

Napoli mathematically can still win the Italian Serie A but in all reality Juventus are now the champions and Napoli know that. Juventus are 12 points clear with three games to go, Napoli would have to win all their four remaining games and hope that Juventus lose all their remaining three, that is simply not going to happen.

Juventus winning last night will have been a body blow to the Napoli players and it would be no surprise to see that impact them somehow in this game at Roma.

Roma sit in third place in Serie A, they are four points ahead of Inter Milan and with Italian soccer only getting three champions league spots, they will not want to release their grip on that third spot.

A win tonight for Roma would see them go seven points clear of Inter with just three games to go, it basically makes it an almost certainty that they will finish at least third, so a win is what they will be after.

Napoli sit just one spot ahead of Roma in the standings and are five points clear, that would be reduced to just the two if Roma win, so Napoli, even though disappointed at almost certainly losing out on the title, will not want to allow Roma to get too close to them.

These two sides are very closely matched, there is little to separate them, however Roma have two advantages in my opinion, one, they are at home and two, Napoli will be a little down after yesterday's Juventus result.

Therefore the pick for me is Roma on the spreads.

Juventus @ Fiorentina

Massive game for both sides, Fiorentina need the win to keep their hops of European football alive and Juventus could basically wrap up the title with a win, though there is still some mathematical chance Napoli could still overhaul them, but that is very unlikely.

Juventus would go 12 points clear if they win and second place Napoli will only have four games left to play, so you can see how important a win is for Juventus, but a draw would suit them very much as well.

Fiorentina are in fifth spot, they are unlikely to finish third and grab a Champions League spot and a loss would make it almost a certainty, but they can still qualify for the Europa league and they are six points ahead of AC Milan in that regard, but a loss could open up that door for AC Milan, something that Fiorentina will want to avoid at all costs.

Both teams would probably be happy for a draw, a win would of course be welcomed by either side as explained above, but the reality is that a draw is a good result.

The problem for Fiorentina is that they are not in good form, they have won just once in their last six games while Juventus have won all their last six games, however, Fiorentina have lost just twice at home all season and are not an easy team to beat on their home patch.

This game just looks like it could be a draw to me, however having weighed up everything, the motivations for both sides, Fiorentina's home record and what is at stake I am of the opinion that there is more chance of a draw or even a home win than there is of an away win.

All things considered I am taking Fiorentina on the spreads.

Real Sociedad @ Villarreal

An interesting game this one, especially for Villarreal who need to win to keep hold of fourth spot in La Liga and a place in next seasons Champions League qualification stage.

But, they do face Liverpool in the first leg of the Europa League semi final on Thursday and there is a chance that the mind of the players could be on that game, especially when you consider that the winners of the Europa League get automatic qualification to the Champions League.

So, Villarreal have two good shots at Champions League football next season, but if they were to lose this evening, they could open the door up for Celta Vigo to close within three points of them, something they will not want to happen.

A win for Villarreal would more or less make them a certainty to claim that fourth spot with just three games to go, so they do have motivation.

Real Sociedad have nothing to play for really, they will not be getting relegated and have no chance of a European spot, that does not mean they will not try their best, but one has to question their motivation.

Villarreal are in better form than Sociedad, they are at home, they have motivation and a home win really is the way to go.

Start @ Valerenga

The bottom two in the Norwegian Eliteserien face off today in a game where both sides are desperate for points.

Start are hopeless, it must be said, they will surely be relegated, it would be a surprise if they were not and their position at the bottom of the standings is not really a shocker.

Valerenga are not hopeless, but they have had an appalling start to the season, they are much better than what their position indicates, they are certainly a better team than Start.

Valerenga did get their season back on track with a comprehensive 4-0 win over Tromso, but they then went and followed that up with a desperate 4-0 away loss to Molde and while Molde are one of the best teams in Norway, a 4-0 loss is still a very bad result for Valerenga.

That said, at least Valerenga have registered a win in their opening six games, albeit losing five, Start however have not won a singe game, their three point all come from draws.

If both teams play to form then Valerenga will win, but it is open for debate if they will play to form, but I picked Valerenga to beat Tromso and they did and the reason was because I do not feel they are beaten mentally just yet, they are still a team that can produce good football and I am very confident they will against Start this evening.

I just cannot see Start getting anything from this game other than a defeat and all things considered, I am very confident that Valerenga will win and cover the spread.

Viking @ Rosenborg

Top of the standing and title favourites Rosenborg host seventh spot Viking in a game that the home side should win comfortably.

Rosenborg are one of the two top teams in Norway, they are expected to fight it out with Molde for the title and already both those sides are performing as expected.

Viking are not expected to be challenging for the title and their return of three wins, one draw and two losses is about what one would have expected after six games.

Viking could challenge for a European qualification spot, they are not a hopeless side, certainly one of the top six, but the gap between them and Rosenborg is fairly big and that will show today, providing Rosenborg play to form of course.

It should also be noted that Viking have won all three of their away games so far this season, however, Rosenborg have won all their three home games and not conceded a single goal, a much stronger challenge for Viking than what they have faced already this season.

I accept that Viking are in form but they are facing a formidable opponent and I cannot see beyond a Rosenborg win this afternoon.

Crystal Palace v Watford

Massive game for both teams, a place in the FA Cup final against Man Utd awaits the winners and the chance of glory in a season that has been a little disappointing for both sides.

Only two points separate these teams in the Premier League and truth be told, there is very little difference to choose between the pair.

Nether team comes into this game in great form, both have registered just the one win in their last six games, though Palace have only lost twice compared to Watford's four losses.

So what we have is two teams fighting for a FA Cup final spot that are not in form, with very little to separate them, even on the head to heads this season they have both beaten each other and on both occasions away from home, go figure.

But, that does not mean that there is not an opportunity to had here, for some reason the totals has been set at just 2, for me that is a mistake, both these teams are more than capable of scoring and in a cup game if you fall behind you tend to throw caution out the window.

I do see goals in this game, I am not saying there will be a goal feast, but I do see there being at least two goals in this game, if not more and that is my pick in this game, over 2 goals.

Arsenal @ Sunderland

This is a very tricky game for Arsenal, they are playing away from home against a side that is desperate to stay in the Premier League, never an easy proposition.

There is no point looking at statistics or even the standings, Arsenal clearly are the better side, that is not up for debate, but as Newcastle showed against Liverpool, the better side does not always win when playing a side fighting for it's very survival.

Sunderland have home advantage and will have a massive passionate crowd cheering them on and in Sam Alardyce they have a manager that knows how to beat relegation.

Arsenal are of course capable of winning this game by three or four goals, but they are also capable of not winning it as well, they have been rather inconsistent for a top team this season.

The obvious pick is Arsenal, but this is not a normal game, far too much is at stake for me to back Arsenal, they should win, but I just do not have that level of confidence, especially at the odds on offer.

What I see happening in this game is goals, I really do see Sunderland scoring, they have to if they are to have any chance of staying up and I cannot see Arsenal not scoring.

All things considered I see this game having at least three goals in it and that is why I will be going over 2.5 goals.

Toronto FC @ Montreal Impact

Interesting match up between these two sides, it is easy to go with Montreal, after all they are at the top of the Eastern Conference standings and have 100% home record this season, albeit this is their first game of the season at the Stade Saputo, but I am not so sure this will be that easy for the Impact.

Toronto are getting used to playing on the road, this is their seventh game away, because of upgrades to their stadium, and yet they sit fourth, not bad considering the circumstances.

There is a little bit of animosity between these two sides, well, more than just a little, and you can expect a passionate game between two sides that are expected to do well this season.

It is difficult to nail down the form properly simply because of the situation regarding the stadiums and the fact that this is so early in the season.

Montreal are the favourites and will be looking to carry on where they left off at the end of last season when they beat Toronto in the one off play off 3-0, that followed the final game of the season win over their fierce rivals 2-1.

So Montreal have the form, they have home field advantage and they have the mental advantage of last season, but in reality a lot of that counts for little in these sort of games.

Bad blood and passion can change a game like this and while Montreal have the edge, Toronto are already showing signs of a mental toughness.

For me I can see the home side winning but do not have high confidence, by the same token I would not be surprised to see Toronto springing a surprise, but have even less confidence in that and the spreads just do not entice me in any manner.

What does attract me is the overs, I see goals in this game, I see both sides scoring and expect one or both to score at least twice and so that is what I am going for this evening, over 2.5 goals.

Everton V Man Utd

This FA Cup semi final game is so important to both the managers of Everton and Man Utd, a loss could quite easily see the losing manager out of a job, a win could salvage their season, that is how important this game is for Roberto Martinez and Louis van Gaal respectively.

Man Utd are clearly the form team of the two, they won midweek in the Premier League to move within two points of a top four spot, whereas Everton got mauled at the hands of their local rivals Liverpool 4-0, a beating that is almost unforgivable to the Everton fans.

So, on form the easy pick is to go with a Man Utd win, but I do not see it like that.

Everton may have lost 4-0 but they were reduced to ten men and that had an impact and they are far better than that result showed, they have a top six squad without a doubt, but for some reason their season has failed to live up to expectations, but only in the league, not in the FA Cup.

United have been consistent in their boring sub standard play all season, they struggle to score, that is a fact, even Everton have scored more than them in the league and they are 18 points behind United.

United have been saved time and again by their keeper David de Gea, he cannot keep on saving them, not in every game and if Everton can get their act together today they will score.

Everton will be looking to put things right and are capable of doing that, not sure that Man Utd can improve to the same extent.

This will be a very good game, I am sure of that and Everton can match United player for player, it really is a question of what Everton team turns up and I am very confident that we will see the right Everton team turn up.

For me it is simple, United are already playing at their level and cannot go any higher, they are what they are, Everton however, can improve and I expect them to, they know this is their last chance for the season and they know they owe their fans after the Liverpool humbling.

I am taking Everton to win this FA Cup match outright, I truly believe they will be at their best today and if they are then they are more than capable of beating United.

Malaga @ Atletico Madrid

This is a game that Atletico simply must win to maintain their push for the Spanish La Liga title, anything less and the chances are that their hopes of a second title in three years are over with.

Atletico sit second in the standing on the same points as Barcelona and have the same head to head, so it is all about goal difference and Barca have a far superior record there, which in effect gives them an extra point, so with just four games to go, including this one, you can see what dropped points would do.

Atletico are a top top team, they disposed of Barcelona in the Champions League and have won eight of their last nine league games, a team mentally strong and full of confidence.

Malaga are mid table and have nothing to play for, but that does not mean they will not be up for this game, they will be, all teams are up for the big games and this is a big game for Malaga.

Atletico should win this game but the spread is set at 1.5 goals and I struggle to see the Madrid outfit covering that against this Malaga side.

Malaga have only lost by more than one goal twice all season and they were not against the top teams, lets look at their record against the top three sides.

Barcelona beat them 1-0 at the Nou Camp and 2-1 in Malaga

Real Madrid drew both games home and away with Malaga

Malaga beat Atletico 1-0 in Malaga

So, you can see, that in five games against the top three Malaga have won once, drawn twice, lost twice and never lost by more than one goal.

Atletico are happy with one goal wins, though in four of their last six games they have won by more than 2 goals, but generally speaking Atletico do one goal wins for breakfast and I see that happening this evening in Spain.

So, in conclusion, I do see Atletico winning but not to cover the spread, Malaga just do not roll over against the big teams.

Sogndal @ Brann

Another game for us in the Norwegian Eliteserien and a very interesting one at that.

Sogndal are starting to slip down the table as was expected, they did get off to a decent start to the season but it seems that normal service has resumed with two consecutive losses before coming into this game.

Brann are sitting in fourth position and have lost just once all season, against title favourites Rosenborg on the road, and they will be looking to maintain their good early season form with a home win today.

On paper it does look like a home win for sure, however I have seen Sogndal in most of their games this season and while they are starting to slip down the rankings they are competitive, they do not roll over easy and this will not be an easy game for Brann.

Brann should win, they have the form and are at home but the odds on them doing that are simply not that attractive and the same applies with the spreads, plus I am not that confident that Brann will get the win, it would not be a surprise to me to see Sogndal sneak a win, as stated above, they are competitive.

What does look attractive is the overs, the odds favour this game going under 2.5 goals, but I do not see that happening in this fixture.

I have seen these two play regular already this season and they do attack, it is just that they struggle to convert, the stats do point to unders I accept that, but for me that is a mistake, one needs to look at the context of a game more than basic stats.

Brann will attack, they are at home, they want to maintain their league position, while Sogndal will be looking to put a halt to their recent slump and are capable of doing that, they will not be on the back foot throughout the game, they are playing Brann, not Molde, Odd or Rosenborg.

I see a competitive game with both teams going for it and based on that will be taking the generous odds on over 2.5 goals.

Newcastle @ Liverpool

Former Liverpool manager Rafael Benitez will make an emotional return today at Anfield with his beleaguered Newcastle side and will be looking to get a win against the club he won the Champions League with.

Newcastle are in serious trouble, they need points like a thirsty man need water in the desert and they showed they are ready to fight for every single point against Man City in midweek when they collected a very commendable point against far superior opposition.

Liverpool are doing rather well under Jurgen Klopp, they are in form, they are in the Europa League semi final and they are flying up the table, though it is probably a little late to grab a top four spot.

Liverpool are clearly the better team but they are up against a team fighting for their lives and these sort of games tend to be harder than when playing a better team that is already safe from relegation, beating a team fighting for premier league survival is no easy task.

Benitez has got Newcastle organised, they are no longer so easy to break down, they are showing signs of confidence and will be stern opposition today.

Today's game will be more about passion and spirit than talent or form, of course Liverpool could end up winning by three goals, they are a better team, they are at home, but Newcastle are a desperate team finally stabilising and I just do not see this being an easy game for the Reds.

All things considered I am going for Newcastle to get something from this game and to cover the spread.

Stoke City @ Man City

Man City need to keep picking up points with their bitter rivals Man Utd so close behind them in the race for a top four finish, if they do not, they could end up without Champions League football next season.

It would be silly for City to concentrate on their Champions League semi final on Tuesday and not give this game their full attention, they need to make sure that they deal with Stoke City today before they even think about Real Madrid next week.

City dropped points midweek against Newcastle and now sit just two points ahead of United, they simply cannot afford to drop points today.

Stoke City were thrashed last Monday by a very good Tottenham side and have been fending of accusations that they have basically already gone on holiday, but even though Tottenham were fantastic it did seem that Stoke were not fully engaged.

Stoke City will be looking to do better for sure and of course City will have their minds on Tuesday, but I do see this game going to form, which is bad news for Stoke.

Stoke may want to bounce back from such a beating but the truth is that they are not good enough to, City on the other hand will want to go into the Real Madrid game full of momentum.

All things considered I do see City winning this game and winning it by at least two goals.

Burnley @ Preston

Another massive game for promotion chasing Burnley, however, this could be the game that severely damages their chances.

Burnley needed a last minute goal midweek to salvage a home draw against fellow promotion hopefuls Middlesbrough and the signs are that they are starting to struggle to maintain their impressive form.

They have drawn four of their last six matches, dropping eight points and on ore than one occasion have needed last minute goals to rescue them.

Preston are not in great form themselves, they have dropped 12 points over their last six games and won just once, however, this is the sort of game that they love when at home as draws against Middlesbrough and Brighton show, both chasing promotion with Burnley.

Preston lift themselves when playing the better teams, they actually beat Burnley away and drew with Brighton away, the only loss against the top three was when they went down 1-0 to Middlesbrough.

So basically, in five games so far this season home and away Preston have lost just once, drawn three and won one.

Burnley are a very good team, but they are up against a team that does very well against the top teams in the Championship, against a team that already beaten them this season and a team that does not have the pressure on them that Burnley.

All things considered I am taking Preston to cover the spread.

Rosenborg @ Tromso

Rosenborg are a much better team than Tromso and should win this game, but it is very tricky backing an away team to cover a one goal spread so early in the season.

That is not to say that I do not think Rosenborg will cover the spread because I do, but the confidence is not high enough to make that my pick.

Neither can I back Tromso to cover the spread on the other side, their 4-0 loss to Valerenga in their last game, a game I watched, showed how easily they can be turned over.

But, Tromso are at home, they are unbeaten in their two home games this season and it does make a difference when you are playing in front of your home fans, especially when you are up against the best team in Norwegian football.

What I see happening, based on what I have seen before from these two sides, based on the fact that Tromso are at home, that Rosenborg are the better team is that there will be more than 2.5 goals in this game.

It would be no surprise to me to see Tromso score at least once and as stated above I do see Rosenborg winning, or it may be the case that Rosenborg run out 3 or 4 goal winners, either way it means over 2.5 goals.

Aalesunds @ Lillestrom

It is very hard to look beyond a home win in this game, especially when you consider how these two teams have started the season in Norway.

Lillestrom are strong at home, they are unbeaten this season, albeit they have just played twice at home, and ended last season with five consecutive home wins.

Aalesunds have had an awful start to the season and find themselves joint bottom, they have lost both their games away this season and lost on nine occasions on the road last season, managing just four wins.

Everything points to a home win, Lillestrom have the form, they have their formidable home record and of course because they are at home they have their fans, whereas Aalesunds are not in form, are awful away from home and show no signs of that changing.

All things considered I am confident that Lillestrom will cover the spread in this game.

Stromsgodset @ Stabaek

Two teams that have had a very average start to the season in Norway and it is not the easiest task to pick a winner between them.

Stabaek have only had two home games this season, winning one and losing one, however the one they lost was to Molde, one of the top two sides in the league, so their home record, although limited, is not so bad as it appears.

On the other side of the coin Stromsgodset have lost both their away games this season, though one of them was against Rosenborg, which was only a 1-0 loss and Rosenborg are also one of the top two sides in the league alongside Molde.

The problem though is that positives and negatives can be found for both sides and with the season being so young it is hard to see who will emerge the victor, if there will even be one.

But, that does not mean that there is not a good pick to have in this game, there is, it is over 2.5 goals.

The reason is simple, between them this season in 10 games, they have played 5 games over 2.5 goals and 5 under, but that does not factor in the head to head between these two sides.

Over the last six games they have faced each other, five times it went over, so what we have is two teams that 50% of the time this season feature in games that go over 2.5 goals but that rises to close to 90% when they face each other.

All things considered I am going overs in this game.

Odd @ Sogndal

Interesting match up between these two in Norway today, but I am fairly confident that I have the winner in this game.

Sogndal have had a good start by their standards, they are considered more likely to be fighting relegation this season than challenging at the top and even though seven points from five games is not the greatest return, it is still decent enough for Sogndal.

Odd on the other hand are regarded as the third best team in Norway behind Rosenborg and Molde and they have lived up to that billing, sitting second in the standings with three wins and drawing two from their five games.

Now, Sogndal have won both their home games to date, but I cannot see that run lasting for too long and against Odd, they are up against a team with more than enough capability to break that small winning home record.

And that is how I am going with this game, I will be taking Odd to get the win, they are simply the better team, they are in form and as long as they maintain that form today, they will win.

Middlesbrough @ Burnley

Absolutely huge game for both sides, whoever wins this game will have taken a massive step towards automatic promotion to the richest league in the world, the English Premier League.

For some context lets look at the league standings as they currently stand.

Al have played 42 games with 4 left to play

Middlesbrough 85

Burnley 83

Brighton 81

Now, only two of these teams can grab automatic promotion and as you can see if Middlesbrough get the win then they are almost there, however, if Burnley get the win then it gets even tighter, especially if Brighton win their game, a draw would be OK and not disastrous for either side.

Both sides are in excellent form, both have been getting very late winners and it is very difficult to separate them if truth be told, however, I will be going for Burnley on the spreads.

Burnley have home advantage and that is important, the crowd will be manic this evening and out of 21 home games they have lost just twice.

Middlesbrough away have lost 7 times in 21 games on the road and drawn 4 from 21, basically they have failed to win more than 50% of time and that is telling.

That said, stats are not enough for me on their own in relation to this game, I will go on what I have personally seen and I have seen both these teams play regular this season and in recent weeks seen them in almost every game they have played and Burnley look the more confident and more accomplished as the pressure mounts.

Based on what I have seen and the respective home and away records, as well as how the spread has been set I am going for Burnley.

Vitesse @ PSV

Massive game for PSV Eindhoven this evening, they must win this game against mid table Vitesse and win it comfortably.

There are just three games to go in the Eredivisie and PSV sit second in the table on the same points as league leaders Ajax, however they are worse off on goal difference and that is critical.

There is a six goal difference between PSV and Ajax and with just three games remaining that will be very hard to close down, however, what it means in the context of this game is that PSV must not only win but win by as many goals as possible.

Vitesse do have a Europa league play off to play for and so they have an interest in this game, it is not like they have nothing to play for, but they are up against one of the giants in Dutch football and are a massive 30 points behind in the standings, that should tell you all you need to know about the difference in the teams.

I just cannot see Vitesse getting anything from this game, PSV are a far better team, they are at home, they need both a win and goals and for me this game will be all one way traffic.

All things considered I see PSV covering the spread even though it is high at 1.5 goals.

Bologna @ Napoli

Critical game for Napoli in Serie A this evening, they have to win after losing last weekend to Inter and going nine points behind leaders Juventus in the standings with just five games to go.

They at least sit five points ahead of Roma in third and a win this evening would give them a massive lift in their quest to secure automatic qualification to the champions league group stages next season.

They will also be looking to bounce back following that defeat to Inter Milan and there is no better place to do that than in front of your home fans.

Bologna sit seven points above the relegation zone and should be safe, but at this time they are not and will be looking to get some sort of result this evening, however eight losses on the road against a Napoli side that have not lost a single game at home all season tells you the scale of the task ahead of them this evening.

The spread has been set quite high at 1.5 goals, but I do see Napoli overcoming that, they must win, they are in front of their home fans, they have the very best home record in the league and in their last seven home games they have covered that spread five times and in their last three games covered it every time.

All things considered, the importance of this game, Napoli's fantastic home record, their current form at home and the context of this game I am going for Napoli to win by 2 goals or more.

Hammarby @ Djurgardens

Still very early days in the Allsvenskan but already there have been a few eye openers and both these teams have already experienced some interesting results.

For starters, Djurgardens sit at the top of the table with three wins from three, that is a surprise, though the teams they have beaten are not the top teams in Sweden, but still, three wins from three is a good start to the season by anyone's reckoning.

Hammarby have had a very mixed start, none less so than their 4-1 defeat away to Elfsborg, however, they did bounce back in their very next game beating Helsingborg 5-1, a very impressive result.

On paper it is easy to side with Djurgardens, but that is not the road I will be taking, I will be going for Hammarby, to at the very least get a draw, if not the win.

Djurgardens have had a good start yes, but it was a fairly easy opening and Hammarby should have done far better, but their last game showed me that they have finally righted the wrongs that marred their first two games of the season and I see them pushing on now.

Djurgardens may have the wins and some momentum but Hammarby are now into their groove and will provide a much sterner opposition than what Djurgardens have had to face so far.

All things considered I see Hammarby bringing the winning run of Djurgardens to an end, they look to me that they have finally clicked after a misfiring start to the season.

Tromso @ Valerenga

Valerenga have got off to a horrendous start this season losing all their opening four league games and find themselves firmly planted at the foot of the table.

This is not what was expected from Valerenga and they are better than this, it was a relief to see them win in the Cup midweek against non league Loten 4-1 an expected result of course, but it at least stopped the rot.

Valerenga must win today, their fans will be very anxious and on their backs, they simply cannot afford to register five consecutive league losses on the trot.

At least in Tromso they are facing an opposition that is very beatable, though they are unbeaten so far, recording three draws and a win.

Tromso will be closer to the bottom than the top come the end of the season and have already set their stall out with three consecutive draws before finally getting a win, their priority is simply not to lose and so far they are achieving that.

But, Valerenga are the better side despite their truly bad start and I am confident that they will finally get off the mark today and kick start their season.

Tromso will look to contain Valerenga but I do not see them doing that for the full 90 minutes.

Take Valerenga to cover the spread.

Crystal Palace @ Arsenal

Arsenal simply must win this game, a defeat would be horrendous for them, not only would it all but end their title hopes but also put their top four ambitions at risk.

The Gunners now sit fourth in the Premier League, if they do lose they will only be three points ahead of Man United with five games to go, not a position they want to find themselves in, that said, if they were to win then they would go back into third, maintain their slim title hopes and sit only three points bitter London rivals Tottenham.

A draw is no use either, Arsenal need the win whatever way it is dressed up and the chances are they will get it today against very limited opposition in Crystal Palace.

Palace have slipped down the table dramatically, they probably will not be relegated but they really cannot afford to take this game lightly, they are unbeaten in their last three games, 2 draws and a win, however, I cannot see that their recent stability will be enough to hold back Arsenal today.

For me Arsenal will win this, they are by far the better team, they are far more motivated, they are in front of their home fans and they are not facing the most formidable opposition.

The only question for me is will the Gunners cover the spread, I believe they will, it is high at 1.5 goals, but I am confident that this Arsenal team have enough about them to register a comfortable win this afternoon.

Molde @ Bodo/Glimt

Molde are one of the favourites to win the Norwegian championship this season and will be looking for the win to keep up with early pace setters Rosenborg.

In fact, it is going to be between Rosenborg and Molde who wins the title and the last thing that Molde will want is to fall behind their title rivals so early on.

Bodo / Glimt are a decent team by Norwegian standards, they may not win the title this season or even be in the race but they are fully expected to be near the top come the end of the season.

Molde have had a mixed start to the season really, they have not lost but two draws and two wins will have disappointed them, they would have hoped to have done slightly better, but still, not a bad start to the season.

Bodo / Glimt have also had a mixed start, winning twice and drawing and losing once, probably a sign of things to come, a few wins, some draws and the odd loss.

So, that is the scene set, two teams that have had OK starts who will be looking to go on a winning run, however, it is Molde I see doing that and not Bodo / Glimt.

I have seen both teams play this season and it is Molde that look the more settled, they have that look about them, they play positive attacking football and they just look the more accomplished side than what Bodo / Glimt do.

All things considered, based on what I have witnessed so far, based on quality of the respective teams I see Mode covering the spread today and getting the win.

AIK @ Norrkoping

Last seasons Allsvenskan champions Norrkoping host AIK in a clash between two of Sweden's top club sides.

Both sides have got off to OK starts, Norkopping lost their opening game away at Malmo but have since gone on to record two straight wins in their opening three games.

AIK have recorded two draws and a win in their opening three games and come into this game unbeaten, albeit behind the hosts in the league standings.

Norrkoping have more momentum at this point, two wins on the trot does that for you while AIK drawing at home 3-3 in their last game will have disappointed them.

It must be noted that AIK have beaten their hosts in their last two domestic meetings at Norrkoping's ground and will be looking for a hat trick today, however, I am confident that will not be the case today.

Norrkoping are the champions, they will be determined to retain the title, they have started winning after a bad start and will be very wound up for this game today.

AIK are stumbling slightly despite being unbeaten, they have drawn twice from their opening three games and they appear to be struggling to get into a winning pattern.

All things considered I see Norrkoping scraping out the win today, they just appear the more settled side at this time and have got into their stride quicker than what AIK have.

West Ham United @ Leicester City

The Leicester City bandwagon rolls on and on and it is now likely that they will win the Premier League title, they are simply too many points ahead, however if they were to stumble this is just the sort of game that it could happened.

Leicester have a lot of luck on their side, it must be said, they beat Sunderland last week 2-0 but when they were leading 1-0 Sunderland missed a sitter and should have equalised but of course they won and that is the sign of champions.

West Ham are a strong team, they are still fighting for a European spot and they must win today if they are to maintain their chances, a draw would not be a good result for the Hammers.

Leicester could draw this game and remain on course for the title, a draw for them would not be a devastating result, they would of course prefer to win, but their lead over Tottenham is such that they can afford to drop some points.

Both teams have match winners, Leicester have the likes of Vardy, Kante, Mahrez while West Ham have Carroll and Payet, point being is that West Ham, on paper, have just as strong a side as the Foxes and can match them on the pitch, as long as they play to form.

I cannot oppose Leicester outright, but neither can I oppose West Ham outright, either could win, but I can see West Ham getting something from the game, a draw is a strong possibility and weighing everything up I am confident that there is more chance of a draw or a West Ham win than a Leicester City win.

All things considered I am taking West Ham on the spreads.

Manchester City @ Chelsea

Man City are riding high at the moment following their progression into the Champions League semi finals, however they cannot ignore their domestic obligations and their fight to remain in the English Premier League top four.

Obviously if Man City win the Champions League they will automatically qualify for next seasons competition, but they cannot rely on that alone, they have to do the job in England as well, just to make sure.

Chelsea naturally have nothing to play for, they will not even make the Europa League next season, but that does not mean they will not put in a performance in front of their home fans against a fellow big club.

This is a game difficult to call, both defences are suspect, their midfield's are inconsistent and their respective forward lines can be hit and miss, on any given day these two can beat almost anyone, but they can also lose, as their league positions show.

That said, because of their suspect defences I am confident that this game will have goals, I am not sure who will win, but I am confident that both teams will score at least once and that one of them, if not both, will score twice.

Therefore, I am going for overs in this game.

Aston Villa @ Man Utd

Today will be the day that Villa get relegated, I simply cannot see how they will come away from Old Trafford with anything other than a beating.

United were undone against Tottenham last week that is true, however it was basically a ten minute period of madness for them that saw them collapse, however, in the FA Cup midweek against an in form West Ham they showed what they are truly capable of.

Villa have been utterly poor all season, 16 points at this stage of the season is woeful, they are a club in crisis, they have even cancelled their player of the year award, basically because there is not one they could pick.

United still harbour hopes of a top four spot and will be going all out for the win, they will be attacking from word go and even though they have been inconsistent this season, it would take some doing not to beat one of the poorest teams in the history of the Premier League.

I fully expect Louis van Gaal's men to win this game handsomely, by a minimum of two goals, probably more and the spread on offer is simply too good an opportunity to pass.

Take United to cover the spread today, it would be a big surprise t me if they failed to do so.

Burnley @ Birmingham City

An extremely important game for Burnley, they have to win this game really, they cannot afford to drop points if they want to maintain their push for an automatic promotion to the Premier League.

Basically there are three teams fighting for two automatic spots to the Premier league, they are as follows:

46 games in season

Middlesbrough played 41 – 82 points

Brighton played 42 – 81 points

Burnley played 41 – 80 points

So you can see the state of play, if Burnley do not win then it is not the end of the world, but it would mean that it is no longer in their hands, something no team wants to happen, especially when their next game after this one is against Middlesbrough.

A draw would actually see them go above Brighton as they do have the better goal difference, however with five games to go a seven goal difference can be over hauled.

Burnley will want the win, they will not be satisfied with a draw, the last thing they will want is to end up in the play off's and against Birmingham they do have a good shot at getting the win.

Birmingham can mathematically make the play off's but it is very unlikely and they are not in the best of form having registered just one win in their last seven Championship games.

I am going for a Burnley win outright as I am confident they have the motivation and mindset to get all three points and maintain their quest for automatic promotion.

Sunderland @ Norwich

Huge game for both teams, both are deep in the relegation mire and both are desperate to get maximum points today.

There are basically three teams fighting to avoid the last two relegation spots, these two and Newcastle and every single point will count, especially for Sunderland, who occupy the last relegation place and are four points behind Norwich, albeit with a game in hand.

Lets look at the bottom places for some clarity

38 Games in the season

Aston Villa played 33 – points 16

Newcastle played 32 – points 25

Sunderland played 32 – points 27

Norwich played 33 – points 31

So, as you can see Aston Villa are basically gone, any point for Norwich today and they are relegated, but even if Norwich lose the chances of Villa staying up basically zero.

Mathematically more teams can be dragged back into the relegation dog fight, but it is very unlikely and it really is between the three teams above Vila to fight off relegation and only one of those three will survive.

So you have the context, what does it mean for the game between Norwich and Sunderland.

Well, at this stage of the season, under these circumstances, statistics do not play as big a role as it does at any other point of the season, these teams will fight like they have not fought all season, especially against each other.

Norwich, on paper, have the advantage clearly, they are not so bad at home, while Sunderland are poor away and the Canaries are in slightly better form, but it would take a brave soul to pick Norwich with any degree of confidence, same applies picking Sunderland.

One has to envision how they see the game panning out, will it be a defensive affair? What happens if one team scores, will they go all defensive and sit back and defend? will the team conceding the first goal go all gung ho and try to find the equaliser?

Well, for me it is simple, I am confident there will be goals in this game, neither defence is strong enough to sit on a lead, otherwise they would not be where they are in the league, both teams need goals, both teams need to win and that will dictate the mentality of both of them today.

I cannot hand on heart predict who will win, but I have a high confidence that there will be more than 2.5 goals in this game, there is simply too much at stake for it not to be.

All things considered, overs for me

Middlesbrough @ Bolton

Top of the table facing off against the bottom club and it is not too difficult to pick who the winner will be.

The basic facts are that there is 56 points separating Middlesbrough at the top from Bolton at the bottom, Boro are in form, Bolton are not, in fact, I could roll out endless stats that would show that an away win is almost a certainty, but the standings tell you all you need to know.

So, Middlesbrough should win, but are they value? the short answer is no they are not, their odds are far too low and not for me.

What about the spreads, well, this is were it gets a little tricky and provides an opportunity for us.

The spreads have Middlesbrough giving up 1.5 goals, something they have managed to do on six occasions this season when away from home, a little expected considering they are top.

However, the interesting bit is this, in 20 home games Bolton have lost just once by more than 1.5 goals and they are rock bottom.

That tells me that even though Bolton are rank poor, they do not roll over at home, they obviously lose a lot, but not by a lot and to not lose by more than 1.5 goals in 19 of 20 home games is very telling to me.

Yes I think Middlesbrough will win, but they will struggle to cover the spread, Bolton simply do not lie down at home, even when losing.

Bottom line, I take Bolton minus 1.5 goals.

Fulham @ Brighton

Brighton were very lucky to come away with the win last Monday at Birmingham City scoring in the last minute of the game, they will not want to be leaving it that late again against lowly Fulham.

Fulham could still be mathematically be relegated, but it is unlikely as they are 10 points above the relegation zone with just five games to go.

That said, the Cottagers will obviously be playing for points against high flying Brighton, they still have to make certain of safety and so will be competitive.

Brighton are the better team, they are motivated, they are on a fantastic run having only lost once in their last 15 Championship games, winning ten of them, they must win this game to keep up their automatic promotion ambitions and simply cannot afford to drop any points, the last thing they will want is to end up in the play off's.

Brighton should win this game, they are at home, they need the points, they have the momentum and are playing a team that have only won 4 games from 20 away from home this season.

However, it must be noted that Fulham have won their last three games on the bounce, so they have some momentum themselves, they cannot easily be dismissed, not when they are themselves on a winning run.

The odds on a Brighton win are too low for me and the spread is difficult to win on, Brighton would have to win by two goals and that will not be an easy task against Fulham.

It leaves us with the totals market and that is where I am going, Brighton must win, but Fulham are in form also, I do believe that Brighton will win, but I can see Fulham scoring at least once, therefore the logic is that there will be more than 2.5 goals in this game.

Weighing everything up I am confident that over is the best position to take in this fixture.

Nice @ Lyon

Massive game in France for these two teams, both are in a desperate fight to claim a Champions League qualification spot.

Basically there are five games remaining and there are a whole host of teams fighting for the two remaining Champions League spots, Monaco (55 pts) Lyon (55pts) and Nice (53 pts) have the best chances and are separated by just two points, however you cannot count out Rennes and Saint Ettiene either, both on 49pts.

So you can see, if Lyon win this evening that would put them five points ahead of Nice with four games to go, if Nice were to win then they would leap frog Lyon and Monaco, though Monaco have their game to play yet.

So this is a very important game for both sides, they are both in good form at present, Lyon winning 5 from their last six and Nice winning 4 from their last 6.

With regards to head to head comparisons, Nice beat Lyon 3-0 earlier in the season, while last season they beat each other away from home.

There is little to separate these teams, the slight advantage does lie with Lyon, they are in slightly the better form and of course are at home, however, playing at home did not mean much last season.

Lyon are favourites to win, however, this game could easily end in a draw, but whatever happens I see it being a close affair and would not be surprised if Nice came out on top either.

Which is why I am surprised that Nice have been given a 1 goal start on the spreads, I struggle to make a case for Lyon winning by 2 clear goals, they can of course win this game, as stated above they are favourites, but a 2 goal favourite, I just do not see it.

All things considered I am taking Nice to cover the spread, for me there is more chance of a draw or away win than there is for the home team to win by more than one goal.

Borussia Munchengladbach @ Hannover.

A little bit of a mismatch this one between Munchengladback, who are chasing a Champions league qualifying spot against bottom side Hannover, who are almost certainly going to be relegated, possibly this weekend.

Munchengladbach need to win if they are to keep the pressure on Hertha Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen for the final two champions league spots and you can be certain that is exactly what they will be going all out to achieve tonight.

Hannoverr of course need to win, but it would only put off the inevitable for another week at best, they have not won at home since January and in fact, have lost 12 of 14 games at home this season, they really are in wretched form.

It would be a major surprise if Munchengladbach do not get all three points against the poorest team in the Bundesliga, a shock I simply do not see happening.

I am taking Munchengladbach to win this outright.

Villarreal @ Sparta Prague

I was surprised by the performance of Sparta Prague in the first leg, they are a better team than I gave them credit for.

The Czech outfit have done very well in the Europa League, no more so than when they dismantled Lazio 3-0 earlier in the previous round and they of course carry an away goal in to this game.

Villarreal should have done better at home, yes they won, but they conceded and that could end up being costly for the Spanish outfit.

Villarreal may well qualify, I am not saying they will not, but I do not see them winning this game, at best they may get a draw, they may even lose 3-2 and qualify, maybe 2-1 and win in extra time, I do not know, what I do not see them doing is going all out for a win unless they have to, which they don't.

Sparta Prague have to win of course and will go for it and in the event they score first they will sit back and defend, if that happens then Villarreal will go all out for the equaliser and then sit back, that is the pattern I see in this game.

All things considered I will take Sparta Prague to cover the spread, they may not win, they may not qualify, but I do not see them losing the actual game.

Borussia Dortmund @ Liverpool

Evening European football at Anfield is always special, the atmosphere is electric, especially when it is a really important match and that is certainly the case tonight.

The Liverpool crowd can be the 12th man that is for sure, they have on so many occasions in the past and will lift the Liverpool side, but it may not be enough.

Dortmund are a very good team, they are one of the best sides in the Bundesliga and it was surprising to see them not win in Germany in the first leg, but that should not reflect on how they will perform tonight.

That said, Liverpool at home are no walkovers, they are quite formidable actually and if the Germans are to get anything from this game then they will have to be at their best and that is what this comes down to, if Dortmund play to their best form they will win.

The problem for me is will Dortmund play to their best form, will the Anfield crowd have an effect, is there a mental block there concerning their previous manager and current Liverpool manager, Jurgen Klopp?

There is so much that can go wrong for Dortmund that it would take a brave person to back them outright.

The same applies to Liverpool, they may try and sit back and preserve the away goal advantage they have, which is a very dangerous game to play, they may well be facing a Dortmund side that put in their best performance, who knows.

Basically I find it risky to back either team to win outright, I really do see this game ending in a draw, I accept Dortmund are the better team but there is so much they have to overcome, the crowd, expectations, Klopp etc. and simply put, I do not see them overcoming it all.

This game for me has draw written all over it, either team could win, both have advantages and disadvantages, but I simply do not see either team getting everything in their favour.

All things considered I am going for the draw.

Barcelona @ Atletico Madrid

Barcelona hold the advantage here, but it is a very slim one indeed and if there is one team that can stop the Catalan juggernaut, it is Atletico Madrid.

Barcelona only managed to beat Atletico at the Nou Camp after Madrid went down to ten men, prior to that they showed little signs of being able to break down Diego Simeone's men and in recent weeks it has appeared that Barca are becoming a very tired team.

Of course Barcelona have the players to beat any team in the world on any given day, however, that has not been the case recently and there is every reason to think that they will struggle to qualify this evening.

But, they do have that one goal advantage and if they were to score just once it would make the task for Atletico all the more difficult.

Atletico are more than capable of grinding out a 1-0 win here, their defence is formidable, they are well organised and even at the Nou Camp, down to ten men, they only conceded twice.

I see Atletico sneaking a goal and holding out for a 1-0 win, however, I accept that Barca are more than capable of scoring, they are the best in the world at that, however I am of the opinion that if they were to score it would only be the once in 90 minutes.

Whatever way I look at this game I am convinced it will be below 2.5 goals and that is how I will play this game.

West Ham @ Man Utd

Could be a classic this one, two teams that are fairly well matched, the advantage is of course with West Ham, they are in better form and are at home and as they showed against Arsenal, they are very difficult to beat.

United had a terrible time of it at Spurs, however, it must be said that it was 10 minutes of madness that undone them, the worst part was how they were unable to cope with going a goal down and how quickly they collapsed.

United still have top four to go for and so it would not be the end of the world if they lost this game, but it would still be a hard blow, they are desperate to win this trophy and you can be sure they will make a better go of it tonight than they did against Tottenham.

West Ham are just one point behind United in the table and they also will be hoping to sneak a top four finish and just like United, they are also desperate to win this FA Cup.

It is difficult to pick a winner, I slightly fancy West Ham to be honest, however, not enough to back them outright, but I do see goals in this game.

This is a cup game and goals is the name of the game and that is what I am going for, over 2.5 goals.

Paris St Germain @ Manchester City

I have a feeling that this could be the year that City win the Champions League so it goes without saying that I am confident they will progress this evening.

The first leg between these two money bag clubs ended in a 2-2 draw and so the advantage clearly lies with City, however it would be a mistake for them to play for a low scoring draw against such formidable opponents.

Paris know they must score and that will dictate how they play this evening, a certain chess match mentality will come into play, however, if City score first then from that point onwards you can expect a very open game.

Man City defence is not that good for such an expensively created club, in fact it is rather average and is without doubt the weak link within the team, though the same can be said of PSG.

It is easy to imagine many different scenarios how this game will pan out and of course some have City parking the bus and holding out for a 0-0 draw, problem is this, I do not see that happening at all.

You could have Paris score first and try to hold onto that scoreline, again I do not see them being able to do that at the Etihad stadium.

Man City could go ahead as stated above, however, as in the other scenarios, I do not see City being able to hold such a lead for too long, a lot also depends on the timing of goals.

The bottom line is this, I see goals in this game and not because goals were scored in the first game but because of the circumstances of this particular game.

All things considered, knowing the respective defences, knowing what is at stake I am going for over 3 goals in this game.

Leeds @ Birmingham City

I will be opposing Leeds Utd this evening in a game that both teams will want to win, even though it would probably make little difference come the end of the season.

A Birmingham win would see them six points behind the play off spots with five games to go, a tall order for sure, but it gives them something to play for in front of their home fans.

Leeds could still mathematically be relegated and a win would make them basically safe, but the truth is that even if they were to lose they would still most likely be safe.

So, this match is not a nothing game, there is something to play for, which means that long term form, short term form, league position, head to head etc. all play a part in evaluating the respective chances of the teams and in all of them Birmingham come out on top.

Birmingham won at Leeds 2-0 back in October and there is very little reason to see that being any different this evening, they are in better form, they have more to play for and they are certainly a more settled side.

Whatever way I look at this I cannot see any other result than a home win and the better odds are taking Birmingham on the spreads.

Brighton @Nottingham Forest

This is a must win match for Brighton if they want to maintain any hope of an automatic promotion to the English Premier league, a loss would put them five points behind leaders Burnley and 4 behind Middlesbrough, who would have a game in hand as well and with just five games to go after tonight then you can see why a loss for Brighton would be damaging.

Forest are not quite safe from relegation, but it is unlikely that they will end up relegated, they are 9 points ahead of MK Dons and even if they were to lose this evening they are most probably safe, however, that does not mean that they will not be going all out for the win, they will be doing so.

But the 29 points difference between Brighton and Forest tells you all you need to know about the two teams, Brighton are far superior and the respective recent form of both teams underlines that fact.

Forest have won just once in their last ten games while Brighton have lost just once in their last 14 games, quite a difference I would say.

Brighton beat Forest 1-0 right at the start of the season and that was at a time when form had not yet settled down, since then Brighton have flown while Forest have dropped like a stone in water.

I cannot see anything other than a win for Brighton this evening, they must win , they are the better team, they are in far better form and they are much more motivated.

Take Brighton on the spreads

GIF Sundsvall @ Malmo

Early in the season in Sweden but that does not mean that certain fixtures are not easy to predict and I feel this is one of them that one can be confident in the result.

Malmo should comfortably dispatch Sundsvall as they have done over the last few seasons as the last five meetings between these two sides have shown.,

The spread between these two teams has been set at 1.5 goals, now look at the last five meetings

Malmö FF 4 - 0 GIF Sundsvall

Malmö FF 3 - 0 GIF Sundsvall

GIF Sundsvall 1 - 4 Malmö FF

Malmö FF 4 - 1 GIF Sundsvall

Malmö FF 2 - 0 GIF Sundsvall

Every single time Malmo have won by more than 1.5 goals and it is hard to see that being any different this evening.

Malmo have won once and lost once in their opening two games of the season while Sundsvall have a draw and loss against their name, in better words Sundsvall are probably playing to form while Malmo have some improvement to find, which should play out this evening.

I fully expect Malmo to win this fixture, they are simply the better team and their history against Sundsvall backs that up.

Giving up 1.5 goals can be a daunting task, however that is what I expect Malmo to do and will be taking them on the spreads to rack up a comfortable win over a team who's measure they have.

Take Malmo on the spreads.

Seattle Sounders @ Houston Dynamo

Both teams have got off to a poor start this season and will be looking for improvements this evening.

Seattle finally got off the mark last week against Montreal Impact after losing their opening three games, while Houston have lost their last two games after racking up four points from a possible six in their opening two games.

It is still too early to predict how these two teams will fare this season, but the signs are not encouraging and a tough season beckons for the pair of them.

That said, Seattle do at least come into this game with a last game win, it may be the start of some momentum and at the very least it shows that they have put a halt to the desperate run they were on.

Houston have no momentum now, they did have, but the last two games have robbed them of that and now it is a case of halting their run of losses, something that Seattle have done, question is, will Houston be able to do it this evening.

I do not think they will, I feel that the advantage is with Seattle and their mix of youth and experience up front will be the difference in what could be a nervy affair.

Having watched both teams recently Seattle do seem the more accomplished and the more capable of notching up a decent run, not sure that is the case with Houston.

I am of the opinion that Seattle will not lose and have the better chance of getting the win.

All things considered I am taking Seattle on the spreads.

Man Utd @ Tottenham

Massive massive game for both teams and I see Tottenham coming out on top and maintaining their push for the English Premier League title.

Tottenham have been absolutely brilliant this season, they deservedly sit second in the league and need to win this game to keep the pressure on league leaders Leicester City, who will have played their game earlier on in the day.

Tottenham will be looking towards Harry Kane to continue his fantastic goal scoring form, his partnership with Dele Alli has been a revelation this season, they have Eric Dier taking command of the midfield, a world class keeper, a solid string defence, no matter what back line Mauricio Pochettino picks, basically they are very strong and solid in every single position on the field.

United are where they are because they have been inconsistent, they still do not have what is called a settled team, their football is predictable and slow and even though they are still in with a chance of a top four spot they are not as good a team as what Tottenham are.

Both teams come into this game fresh, neither has had European commitments and so it really is a question of performance today and if both play to form then Spurs will win.

United will set their team out to try and negate Tottenham's attacking play, but they attack from all angles, the wings, through the middle and they have players like Ericken that can turn a game in a second.

Whatever way I look at this I can see nothing other than a home win and will be taking Tottenham on the moneyline to win.

Djurgardens @ Gefle

Early season Swedish match between Allsvenskan league leaders Djurgardens and sixth place Gefle in what promises to be a bit of a goal feast.

Both teams have got off to a good start to the season, both are unbeaten and you can be sure that both will want to keep the momentum going.

Djurgardens have yet to concede a goal having knocked in seven in their opening two league games and have continued the run going from last season where they were involved in games that averaged more than 2.5 goals per game.

Same applies to Gefle from last season, their games on average involved an average above 2.5 goals a game and of course are on target already this season to maintain that statistic.

So, we have two teams that on average are involved in games that see over 2,5 goals, that are both unbeaten in the opening two games of the season, both with momentum, both confident.

All the signs point to this game being over 2.5 goals and that is the pick that I am going with today.

Leicester City @ Sunderland

Leicester keep on rolling, no matter who they go up against they get a result, for a team that was expected to be fighting relegation this season, to be on the verge of winning the Premier League is nothing short of a miracle.

They will be facing a team in Sunderland that is in fact fighting for their lives in the relegation zone and on paper this season you would have the Foxes to beat the black cats today, however, I am of a different view.

Leicester have been grinding out results recently, how they beat Southampton last week I do not know, the Saints were unlucky not to get a draw against Claudio Ranieri's men, but Leicester showed that they really are Champions in waiting as they held on for the win.

But, that cannot continue, at some point their luck will fold and I believe today is that day.

There is nothing harder to beat in soccer, especially in England, than a team that is fighting for its life, of course if that team is already beat mentally like Aston Villa then there are no issues, however, Sunderland are not beat mentally, they believe they can fight off relegation and their most recent results have shown that, with 4 draws on the bounce.

Sunderland have now become a team very hard to beat, they no longer roll over and have a backbone that sees them fight for every ball and in Jermain Defoe they have a genuine top class striker, not something most relegation teams have.

Leicester would be far from heartbroken to get a draw at the Stadium of Light today and I do not expect them to take too many chances, they will still play their high tempo game but do not expect them to flood forward throughout the game, expect them to play a little conservative.

I am not saying Sunderland will win or that Leicester will lose, what I am saying is that I do not see Sunderland losing and therefore will take them on the spreads.

West Brom @ Man City

With seven Premier League matches remaining, every point counts for teams at the top of the table. While no longer considered league title contenders, Manchester City face competition from Manchester United and West Ham for the final Champions League qualification spot, and cannot afford to slip up with Pep Guardiola arriving in the summer. Just 4 points separate City from 3rd-place Arsenal, and a strong finish could see the side snatch automatic qualification away from the Gunners.

The Citizens face a relatively easy fixture at the Etihad this afternoon, hosting West Brom in what will certainly be a very one-sided affair. City have scored 3 goals against the Baggies in each of their last 3 matches, and will be expected to score at least another 2 in today’s match. Manuel Pellegrini’s side will be encouraged by their impressive performance in the mid-week, earning a deserved 2-2 draw against French champions Paris Saint-Germain. 

While West Brom edged to a victory against United last month, the mid-table team have struggled in their past couple of fixtures, with defeat to Norwich City and a stalemate away to Sunderland. Indeed, their away form has been inconsistent throughout the season, picking up just a single victory on the road in 2016 against Everton. 

Taking everything into consideration I do see Man City winning this game comfortably and by at least two goals, take them on the spreads.

Norwich @Crystal Palace

A very critical game for both sides, a loss for either one will really harm their chances of Premier League survival, while a win will be massive.

Palace have gone 14 games without a win, their season has really collapsed but they are a far better team than what their form represents and they have shown signs that they are very close to coming out of the slump they find themselves in.

Norwich have picked up seven points from a possible nine in their last three games and they are buzzing, especially after the last gasp win against Newcastle last week.

So, on form you would pick Norwich right, but nor for me, Palace are the better team and while they have found it very difficult to find a win I am of the opinion that today is the day that they finally get that elusive victory that will see their season get back on track.

Why? Because they have shown signs of a return to form, because the players and managers are still at one, because they have been very unlucky, because they are at home, because they now realise how precarious their position is, because they are better than Norwich, because they are still above Norwich in the table despite not finding a win in their 14 games, that is why.

Norwich are on a roll I accept that and I do believe they will end up staying in the Premier League, however, they are very average and luck has played a huge part in their recent run of results and over the whole season their form has been rather poor, I simply do not see them maintaining their recent run of results.

All things considered this is a home win for me and I will take Palace on the spreads..

Newcastle @ Southampton

I see goals in this game, the reason is simple, both teams are desperate for a win and both teams will be on the attack from almost word go

Southampton still retain hopes of a champions league qualification spot, while Newcastle are in desperate trouble in the relegation zone.

Southampton were very unlucky to lose against Leicester City last week but not as unlucky as what Newcastle were against Norwich and both sides will be looking to bounce back from such disappointing defeats.

There will be no sitting back in this game, both sides want goals, they have no choice and have zero option but to attack.

I agree that recent stats point to an unders game but the circumstances of this game are unique, plus you have to factor in the fact that nether defence is world class, especially the Newcastle defence which has allowed in an average of just under 2 goals per game this season, 58 in 31 matches.

Newcastle will throw the kitchen sink at Southampton today, they have to, they showed that against Norwich last week in a five goal thriller.

Southampton are a good team and do not lie down easily as they showed recently against Liverpool winning 3-2 after being 2-0 down and they will match every Newcastle attack with one of their own.

All things considered I see goals in this game, Southampton should win, but I do not see them keeping a clean sheet and I would not be too surprised if Newcastle managed the win and same as with the Saints, I do not see Newcastle keeping a clean sheet.

Sarpsborg @Lillestrom

An early season pick from Norway has Lillestrom hosting Sarpsborg and it is difficult to look for any result other than a home win.

Both sides are on the same points after three games, however, one needs to look at how the season has unfolded for both sides so far and then the picture becomes clearer.

Sarpsborg have drawn twice and lost once, however they have not scored a single goal in those three games and the calibre of team they have faced so far is not as strong as what Lillestrom have had to face.

Like Sarpsborg, Lillestrom have drawn twice and lost once, but that loss was against Molde who along with Rosenborg are clear favourites to win the title this season, in better words losing 4-2 at Molde is no great shame, in fact managing to score twice is not bad at all. They also drew with Bolde Glimt who currently sit at the top of the league table just ahead of Molde.

Lillestrom, despite being on same points as Sarpborg, have had the better start to the season, they are at home and as long as they play to the form they have done so already this season then they will win.

Arsenal @ West Ham

A London derby that both sides really need to win if they are going to maintain their push for a successful end of season.

Arsenal still retain slim hopes of winning the title while West Ham are hoping to secure a champions league qualifying spot, a draw is simply no good to either team.

This is going to be an open game, it may start off nervy but be assured as the clock ticks away the game will open up, goals are required by both teams, you do not win by not scoring.

The defences of both teams are average considering their respective league positions and with the likes of Payet for West Ham and Sanchez for Arsenal on the prowl they will be tested to the max.

I cannot see either team maintaining a clean sheet throughout the game, both forward lines have the fire power to penetrate most defences and as stated above, they are not facing the most formidable defences.

It will take a brave man to predict the winner of this game, Arsenal are the better team but they are not at home and West Ham have shown this season that they are a match for any team that visits, just ask Tottenham.

All things considered, suspect defences, good forward lines and the absolute need for all three points then the value for me has to be over 2.5 goals.