The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST).

The 7-5 Atlanta Falcons are in LA to take on the 4-8 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

LA has lost seven of its last eight, but hasn’t thrown in the towel yet, most recently falling to New England.

Atlanta is just 3-4 after a 4-1 start and is most recently coming off a frustrating 29-28 home loss to KC last weekend. 

The Falcons have to be especially deflated after last week’s setback, as after erasing a double-digit deficit to take a 28-27 lead, Chiefs’ safety Eric Bery intercepted the ensuing two-point conversion and returned it for the improbable 29-28 victory.

The Rams were in over their heads last week, posting only 25 yards in the first half, before then recovering in the second to make it look somewhat respectable. Jared Goff has now completed 51 of 95 attempts for 509 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s. But thankfully for Goff and the home side, they’re going up against Atlanta’s atrocious secondary today. Goff and company did put up three TD’s against the Saints a couple weeks back, so should also have plenty of opportunity to move the ball today as well.

I’ll point out that Atlanta is just 5-17 ATS in its last 22 as a favorite (including only 2-4 ATS this season), while LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog of 3.5 to seven points.

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points as I look for Goff to play much better in friendlier confines. 

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets (4:05 EST).

The 3-9 New York Jets are in San Francisco to take on the 1-11 49ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Last week San Francisco fell 26-6 at Chicago, while New York was trounced 41-10 by Indianapolis on Monday night (note that I had the Colts in that one). 

Jets’ QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was only five of 12 for 81 yards, no TD’s and one INT last week. Bryce Petty came on in relief and he’d go 11 of 25 for 135 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Petty has been given the green light for the final four games of the season and looked a lot better than Fitzpatrick, despite the two picks. 

San Francisco’s QB situation is much worse though. Colin Kaepernick was benched during the fourth quarter last week after completing one of five passes for four yards. Blaine Gabbert came in in relief and was 4 of 10 for 35 yards. 

I’ll point out that New York is interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of December, while San Francisco is just 1-4 ATS this year against teams with losing records and just 8-14 ATS in its last 22 in front of the home town crowd.

I think that Petty is better than either Gabbert or Kaepernick and believe that’s going to be the difference in end between these two cellar dwellers. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFL Week Las Vegas Insider is on the Was Redskins at 1:00 ET.

Philadelphia’s 3-0 SU & ATS start has been put in the ‘rearview mirror,’ as the Eagles are 2-7 in their last nine games, failing to cover any of those seven losses. The Redskins opened 0-2 but then won four in a row. However, Washington is just 2-3-1 over its last six games and at 6-5-1, sits seventh in the NFC, when only six teams make the postseason. These NFC East rivals meet for the second time on Sunday,  with Washington winning 27-20 at home back in Week 6. However, the game was not as close as the final score, as the Redskins outgained the Eagles, 493-239 in total yards.

The Eagles have currently turned into a bottom-six NFL team, done in by weak skill position players, made even weaker by key injuries and a defense which, after a strong start, has allowed 26 points or more in FIVE of the last six games. Rookie QB  Carson Wentz averaged 256.3 YPG through the air with five TDs and zero INTs as the Eagles opened 3-0. He had a 7-1 TD-to-INT ratio through five games but over the last seven, has just five TD passes and 10 INTs, earning a QB rating below 76.0 in FIVE of those seven games (it’s just 80.1 for the year). His best WR, Jordan Matthews (57 catches / 686 yards) has ankle issues and missed last week’s game (remains questionable for this one) and leading rusher Ryan Matthews has missed two straight games with a knee issue (is also questionable for this one).

The Redskins won the division last year and may be a better team in 2016 but the problem is, the Cowboys have been the NFL’s best team in 2016 at 11-1 and the vastly improved Giants are 8-3. QB Cousins has proven doubters wrong, as he’s completing 67.5% and his 309.1 YPG through tyeh air ranks 2nd in the NFL (21-8 ratio for a QB rating of 99.6).  Washington owns a deep group of receivers, as Cousins has targets like DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon,  Jamison Crowder and Vernon Davis. It’s an added bonus if star TE Jordan Reed can play after missing last Sunday with a shoulder injury. Note that the Eagles have only six sacks in their last six games and the team's battered secondary has permitted multiple TD passes in SEVEN of their last nine games.

Washington’s defense is mediocre at best (24.6 PPG to rank 20th) but the Philly offense has scored 15, 13 and 14 points the last three weeks! The Eagles have ‘hit a wall’ but Washington is still very much alive for a playoff berth. A win here and Washington faces the crumbling 4-8 Panthers and the sad-sack 3-9 Bears the next two weeks. A win here could be the first of a three-game winning streak which would put Washington at 9-5-1 heading into a Week 17 game with the Giants. Not getting ahead of myself but Washington (8-2 ATS in its last 10!) earns a top-rating of 10*s in this Week 14 game.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:25 EST). 

Last week the Vikes and Cowboys went down to the wire on Thursday night and all signs point to another close one this week, but for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The short week is tough at this time of year and it’s twice as hard for the visiting side. At 10-2, Oakland is looking tie up home-field advantage through the playoffs still, but I think it’s going to finally have a letdown here in this tough atmosphere on the national stage. 

Oakland most recently beat Buffalo 38-24 on Sunday as QB Derek Carr had 260 yards and two scores. RB Latavius Muarry had 20 rushes for 82 yards and two TD’s. 

Note though that it was the team’s sixth fourth-quarter comeback of the season. 

I think Kansas City is the “hungrier” team today, it’s a game behind Oakland in the AFC West. The Chiefs come in with plenty of momentum, most recently off an OT win in Denver and a victory at Atlanta last week. 

Note that the Chiefs are hopeful that standout WR Jeremy Maclin will return this week after sitting the last four with a groin injury.

I’ll point out that Oakland is just 1-2 ATS this year versus division opponents and 0-1 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while KC is 3-1 ATS against teams with winning records this season and 2-1 ATS against the division.

A major advantage working in favor of the Chiefs tonight is the weather, as it’s expected to be -8 Celsius or less in Kansas City on Thursday. Oakland isn’t used to performing in those types of conditions. 

I’m laying the points and expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PRIME-TIME PERFECT STORM is on the Indianapolis Colts (8:30 EST).

The 5-6 Indianapolis Colts are in New York to take on the 3-8 Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Indianapolis looks to get back on track after a 28-7 loss on Thanksgiving to the Steelers, one which saw starting QB Andrew Luck sidelined with injury. Luck is back for this one though and he takes on a floundering Jets team which enters off a 22-17 loss at home to the Pats. 

Note that the Colts play with revenge here after losing 20-7 to New York last season. 

Last week Indy’ back up QB Scott Tolzien struggled, throwing one TD and two INT’s. But as mentioned off the top, Luck is back and he’s so far had a very good season, with 2,827 yards and a 19:8 TD/INT ratio in ten games played. 

Note that the Colts average 24.5 PPG, ranked 12th overall. The defense has been the weak point, giving up 27.4 PPG, ranked 27th overall.

Indinapolis’ defense though clearly catches a break this week in facing the Jets’ anemic unit which averages 17.8 PPG, ranked 28th. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick looked decent last week, but overall he’s been a disaster with a horrible 10:13 TD to INT ratio. Note that the defense concedes 24.2 PPG, ranked 21st. 

I’ll point out that the Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record and 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss, while New York is interestingly just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 against teams with losing road records.

The Jets have struggled against the pass all year, conceding an average of 263 passing yards per game and I have hard time seeing that unit slowing down a refreshed Luck. New York has already been eliminated, while Indianapolis is in a dog fight for a playoff spot. I’m backing the “hungrier” side, play on the Colts.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 13 Las Vegas Insider is on the SD Chargers at 4:25 ET.

Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually getting close to turning the corner? The Bucs have won FIVE of seven games since a 1-3 start and after their 14-5 home win over the Seahawks last Sunday, they own THREE consecutive wins and find themselves just one game back of the 7-4 Falcons in the NFC South. No one ever doubted QB Jameis Winston’s talent but some questioned his character. However, he continues to silence his critics. He completed 21 of 28 passes against Seattle with two TD passes. which means he’s now stretched his streak to 27 straight games with at least one rushing or passing TD to begin his career. Both TD throws went to WR Mike Evans (eight catches for 108 yards), who ranks third in receptions (73) and second in receiving yards (1,020) on the season.

RB Doug Martin is starting to regain his health and had his best game since returning to the field last Sunday, gaining 87 yards (up from 33- and 63-yard efforts the previous two games). The defense checks in at 19th in points allowed (24.0 per) but is off its best game of the season, holding Seattle without a TD in last Sunday's 14-5 win. Seattle QB Russell Wilson battled injuries in October, going three straight games without a TD, passing or rushing, to close out the month. However, Seattle was 3-0 in November as Wilson’s return to health saw him pass for six TDs (without an interception) plus he added added a rushing and receiving score, as well. Seattle had averaged 29.3 PPG in its three-game winning streak but that all came to an end at Raymond James Stadium last Sunday. Russell was 17 of 33 for just 151 yards (0 TDs / 2 INTs), as Seattle scored only five points (a defensive safety and a FG), gaining only 245 yards while converting just 1 of 11 third-down opportunities.

The Bucs now travel cross-country to San Diego, looking to continue their outstanding road play which has seen them go 4-1 SU & ATS. However, they’ll meet a San Diego team which may be just 5-6 but owns a home win over Denver plus road wins at division leaders Atlanta and Houston. Let me also add that the Chargers 1-4 start included an OT loss at KC (blew a 27-10 4th-quarter lead), a four-point loss at Indy, a one-point loss to the Saints and a three-point loss to the Raiders. QB Philip Rivers is having another magnificent season, RB Melvin Gordon is headed for comeback player of the year honors and CB Casey Hayward leads the NFL in interceptions with six.

The Chargers ranked 9th in total yards last year (371.8 YPG) but weren’t able to translate that into points, averaging only 20.0 PPG (25th). The team has fixed that this season, as they are gaining almost the same amount of yards (37.1 per game to rank 8th) but instead of averaging just 20.0 PPG, they are scoring 28.5 PPG to rank 4th in the entire NFL! Rivers is completing 62.9% for 271.5 YPG with 23 TDs and 12 INTs. He’s topped 4,000 passing yards in SEVEN of his last eight seasons, while averaging 29.6 TD passes per year in that span. Doing the math, he’s on pace to throw for over 4,300 yards in 2016 and 33 TDs. Gordon was San Diego’s 1st-round pick last year but flopped badly, rushing for just 641 yards (on 3.5 YPC) while not scoring a single TD. He’s got 908 rushing yards this season (on pace for over 1,300) and has nine rushing TDs while adding two more TDs on 37 catches!

At 5-6, this is “last stand” time for the Chargers and this Tampa Bay team just doesn’t have the pedigree to keep winning on the road. Expect the Chargers to even their record at 6-6, earning the win “with room to spare!”

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Denver Broncos (1:00 EST).

The 7-4 Denver Broncos are in Jacksonville to take on the 2-9 Jaguars and despite being down to their No. 2 QB, I think this one favors the visitors.

Denver comes in off a 30-27 OT loss to Kansas City, while Jacksonville fell 28-21 to the Bills. 

The Chiefs hit a game-winning field goal as time expried in OT last week. QB Trevor Simien was great, but he was injured near the end of the game, meaning the Paxton Lynch will get the call tonight. I don’t see much of a drop off between these two, as the offense is primarily focused around the run game anyways.

Denver wins games because of its defense and special teams’ play and I’m expecting these two phases to once again play a big part in the final outcome of this one as well. Note that the Broncos average 24.2 PPG, ranked 13th overall. The defense concedes 19.9 PPG, ranked 19th overall, but note that the unit did post six sacks last week.

The Jags are a mess and come into this one having lost six straight. Last week struggling QB Blake Bortles had 126 yards and two TD’s. The run game was decent with 183 yards with one TD. The offense though averages just 19.5 PPG, ranked 26th overall. 

The defense is on par with the offense, conceding 26.6 PPG, which also ranks 26th overall.

I’ll point out that Denver is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 following a straight up loss, while Jacksonville is interestingly, just 1-4-2 ATS in its last seven after posing more than 150 rushing yards in its previous game. 

As Bortles goes, so go the Jaguars. Jacksonville relies on Bortles to move this offense, which doesn’t bode well in facing the Broncos No. 1 ranked pass defense, allowing an average of just 193 passing yars per game. 

I’m laying the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EST).

The 8-3 Kansas City Chiefs are in Atlanta to take on the 7-4 Falcons and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

KC comes in off a confidence building 30-27 OT win over Denver, while Atlanta enters off a 38-19 win over Arizona. 

Last week Chiefs’ QB Alex Smith had 220 yards, one TD and no INT’s. TE Travis Kelce made eight catches for 101 yards. KC is once again in the thick of the AFC West race and averages 22.9 points per game, ranked 16th overall. 

Kansas City’s normally stout defense looked a bit shaky last week, but despite the sub-par performance, the unit still concedes an average of just 19.5 PPG.

Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan was solid once again last week, finishing 26 of 34 for 269 yards, two TD’s and an INT. WR Julio Jones had four catches for 35 yards, but the run game picked up the slack by posting three rushing major scores. 

Atlanta owns the league’s No. 1 offense, one which averages 32.5 PPG, but its defense has been a disaster, conceding 27.5 PPG, ranked 28th. 

I’ll point out that KC is 4-2 ATS on the road this year and 2-1 ATS when playing the role of underdog, while Atlanta is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 as a favorite (including only 2-3 ATS this year). 

I think the Chiefs’ superior defense and special teams will play a significant role in the final outcome of this game and while I clearly wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, ultimately I’m going to recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST).

The 6-5 Houston Texans are in Green Bay to take on the 5-6 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Houston comes in off a listless 21-13 loss to San Diego last week, while Green Bay got off the schneid with a convincing 27-13 win in Philadelphia on Monday night.

Last week Texans’ QB Brock Osweiler struggled with 246 yards, zero TD’s and three INT’s. So far he’s thrown 12 TD’s to 13 picks. WR DeAndre Hopkins has just one 100 yard receiving game this year. Note that RB Lamar Miller had just 57 yards on 19 carries last week. 

It comes as little surprise to learn that Houston ranks in the bottom of almost every offensive category, the unit averages just 17.6 PPG, ranked 29th overall.

The defense has also regressed as the season has progressed and now concedes 21.5 PPG, ranked 13th overall. 

Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers was 30 of 39 last week for 313 yards, two TD’s and no picks. So far Rodgers has 27 TD’s to just seven picks. Davantae Adams had five grabs for 113 yards and two TD’s. The offense averages 24.9 PPG, ranked 11th overall. 

The defense concedes 26.3 PPG, ranked 25th, but looked a lot better last week in allowing just 292 total to Philadelphia.

I’ll point out that Houston is already 0-3 ATS this year as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and just 1-3 ATS on the road, while Green Bay is 3-1 ATS his season as a home fav of 3.5 to seven points.

I simply can’t see the Texans keeping pace with the Packers and their surging offense, I’m laying the points.

Good luck…Larry