The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Vikings 8* (4:25 EST).

The 6-4-1 Minnesota Vikings are on the road to take on the 8-3 New England Patriots and while the outright win isn’t out of the question obviously, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last.

The Vikes are averaging 24.1 PPG. QB Kirk Cousins has a sharp 22/7 TD/INT. 

The Pats are averaging 27.9 PPG. QB Tom Brady has a 19/7 TD/INT. 

These teams are evenly matched. The difference comes in the trends though, as note that Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last ten non-conference game and 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while New England is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.” 

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tennessee Titans 8* (4:05 EST).

New York enters off a 27-13 home loss to new England, while Tennessee comes in off a 34-17 setback to the Texans on the road. 

Overall New York is averaging only 20.1 PPG, while conceding 25.5. QB Sam Darnold has missed the last two games with injury and he’s doubtful here. Backup Josh McCown has 276 yards and a TD last week vs. the Pats, but also a costly INT.

Tennessee had won two in a row before last week’s 34-17 loss to the Titans. Overall the Titans are averaging 17.7 PPG and allowing 20.3.

The Titans though are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six after two or more SU losses, while New York is just 2-6 ATS as an underdog this year and only 1-4 ATS on the road.

For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* AFC Game Of The Month is on the Houston Texans (1:00 EST).

The 4-6-1 Cleveland Browns are at Houston to take on the 8-3 Texans on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, this one has home side “blowout” written all over it.

The Browns comes in content after winning two straight. Cleveland’s been a lot better at home than on the road as well, having lost four of its last five road games. QB Baker Mayfield has 17 TDs and seven INTs. Nick Chubb leads the ground game with 663 yards and six TDs. Overall the defense concedes 25.7 PPG.

The Texans come in as the hottest team in football with eight straight wins. Houston has won four straight at home. Home field advantage can not be overlooked at all as a very real deciding factor as well. Deshaun Watson has 2,807 passing yards with 20 TDs and nine INTs. 

I’ll point out that the Browns are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games and 0-4 ATS the last four in this series, while the Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following a five games or more SU unbeaten streak.

This sets up as a classic trap for the over achieving Browns. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Showdown is on the Tennessee Titans (8:15 EST).

Clearly this is a big game. The Titans beat the Texans 20-17 at home in Week 2. Houston comes into this one as one of the hottest teams in the league now though, having won seven straight.

The Titans had a nice two game win streak going, including a dominant victory over the Patriots, but they’d come crashing back down to Earth last weekend against a surging Colts team.

The Texans hold a two-game lead in the division over the Titans and Colts, so as mentioned off the top, clearly this is a “big” game for both teams.

Overall, they’re very evenly matched. Great QB’s with above average receiving. Also great ground games. The defense and special teams are also all above average.

The oddsmakers also agree with us that these teams are evenly matched with this smaller spread. 

So where’s the advantage?

This is essentially a “do or die” game for Tennessee, much like it was when it faced New England three weeks ago. The Titans performed at their very best when everything was on the line, and I’m expecting a similar thing here as well.

Houston comes in tired after playing at such a high level and I think the outright upset isn’t out of the question here.

Note that Tennessee is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 vs. the division and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston is already just 1-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and only 6-8 ATS in its last 14 against divisional foes.

For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* SNF MAGIC is on the Green Bay Packers (8:20 EST).

Minnesota enters off a devastating divisional loss to Chicago. The Vikes have now lost two of their last three. Green Bay fans can empathize, as their team sits at 4-5, having now lost three of its last four. 

It’s do or die for the Packers this weekend, as another loss will officially knock the team out of playoff contention. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the ions.

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has a sharp 19/1 TD/INT on the year and he had 332 passing yards and two TDs in last week’s 27-24 loss at Seattle. Davante Adams was another standout with 166 receiving yards on ten catches.

The Vikes’ offense has been a disaster with QB Kirk Cousins, who has a weak 5/4 TD/INT over his last three games. Two of those INTs were returned for TDs as well. Stefon Diggs was a bright spot in the setback last week with 125 yards and a TD. 

I’ll point out that Green Bay is still 9-5 ATS in its last 14 vs. clubs with winning records, while Minnesota is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a loss vs. a division rival.

For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Oddsmakers Error is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (4:25 EST).

The Broncos ended the Chargers' six-game winning streak with a 23-22 win last Sunday in LA , as a TD underdog. However, at 4-6, Denver has more than a little work to do to avoid consecutive losing season for the first time in 46 years! This game marks Denver's lone home contest in a four-week span (in LA against the Chargers last week, with trips to Cincy and San Fran following the Steelers coming to town on Sunday). As for those Steelers, they visit “Mile High” having won six straight contests (who needs Bell?), following a comeback win against the free-falling Jaguars last Sunday. Pittsburgh is 4-0-1 SU on the road this season, after going 7-1 last year (that's an 11-1-1 SU run away from home!). Can't let the small impost stand in the way of taking "Big Ben" over Case Keenum!

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Showdown is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST).

I think the defending champs have now thrown in the towel on their season and I look for the surging Giants to take advantage. New York’s offense is firing on all cylinders, coming into this one off a 38-35 win over Tampa last week.

The Eagles on the other hand come in off an embarrassing 48-7 loss to the Saints. Note that this is an “in season revenge game” as well for New York, as Philly posted the 34-13 road win last month. 

New York’s offense has been great of late, but the weakness has been on the defensive side of the ball. But the Giants’ defense catches a break here facing an Eagles unit which is struggling with consistency. 

While New York has now won two straight, the Eagles enter having lost two straight (and three of their last four.) Philly is just 2-3 at home and it’s averaging only 20.5 PPG, while conceding 23.1. 

I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home, while New York is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four on the road.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).

Both teams need wins, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 2,192 passing yards with 23 TDs and five INTs. Wilson has been very sharp of late, with three TD passes in four of his last six games. The ground game has been strong as well in averaging 154.3 YPG, led by Chris Carson with 580 rushing yards and three TDs. Overall the defense has been pretty good as well by allowing 21.6 PPG. 

Carolina has won all five of its home games this year. The Panthers’ Cam Newton has 2,443 yards, two TDs and six INTs. Newton has two or more TD passes in each of his last nine games. The ground game has also been strong by averaging 130.2 YPG. On the year the Panthers are allowing 25.2 PPG.

These teams are evenly matched on paper and each is desperate for wins. Note though that Seattle is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 on the road and only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a road dog of three points or less, while Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last ten at home and note that the home team is 4-1 ATS the last five in this series as well. 

Carolina has been a “different” team at home all year. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Detroit Lions (12:30 EST).

The Bears on the road on a short week to take on the Lions. Chicago enter off a satisfying 25-20 home win over Minnesota, while the Lions prevailed 20-19 over the Panthers on Sunday. 

Note that this is an “in season revenge game” for Detroit after falling 34-22 in the first meeting in Chicago back on November 11th. 

The Bears have been great, but I think this sets up as a natural “letdown” spot. After four straight victories and then hitting the road for a nationally televised contest on a “short” week, would anyone at all fault Chicago if it did have a “letdown” here?

The Lions come in with momentum and nothing to lose. Last week Detroit controlled the clock 31:40 to 28:20. Note that the Lions are 3-2 ATS at home this year. 

Additionally note that Detroit is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 after a four games or more SU unbeaten streak.

While the outright upset isn’t out of the question obviously, I’ll recommend grabbing the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the LA Rams (8:15 EST).

I don’t think that that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this prime time and big time non conference Monday Night game.

KC is averaging 35.3 PPG and it enters off a tougher than expected 26-14 win over Arizona last weekend. Is it a sign of things to come for this explosive offense? It was its lowest output of the year thus far (just saying.) 

LA is averaging 33.5 PPG and the Rams enter off a hard-fought 36-31 win over Seattle last Sunday. The Rams though are in a neck and neck race with the Saints (the only team they’ve lost to) and I look for them to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here.

Look for the Rams to take a page out of the Cardinals’ defensive playbook this week, as KC was held to a season-low 330 yards last Sunday. 

The Chiefs’ have been horrible defensively all year, especially against the run. I’m expecting Rams’ star RB Todd Gurley to have a big game here. Last week he topped 100 yards for the fifth time this year against a tough Seattle front. 

KC came up short against the Patriots in a Sunday night game last month, but the Rams feature a much more explosive offense. This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion.

Play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Bears (8:20 EST).

The Vikes smashed the Lions 24-9 in Week 9 before their bye week and suffice it to say, I believe they come to this difficult venue with some “rust.” 

Chicago on the other hand destroyed Detroit 34-22 and I believe it’ll carry that momentum over here as well.

Additionally note that this is a “double revenge” game for the Bears after Minnesota took both contests last season.

Overall the Vikings average 24.6 PPG, while conceding 22.7. QB Kirk Cousins has 2,685 passing yards and a sharp 17/5 TD/INT.

The Bears are averaging 29.9 PPG and they’re conceding only 19.4. QB Mitchell Trubisky has 2,304 passing yards and a 19/7 TD/INT. 

I’ll point out though that Minnesota is still just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 vs. the division, while Chicago already 2-0 ATS against the division this season and now 3-1 ATS after two or more SU wins.

Lay the points and expect a blowout.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Eagles.

It’s do or die for the defending champs.

The Eagles are 4-5 and in desperate need of a victory. Philly has lost two of its last three on the road, but QB Carson Wentz definitely hasn’t been the issue, as he so far has completed 71 percent of his passes for 2,148 yards, 15 TDs and three INTs. 

Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor remain elite as well with 1,244 receiving yards and six TDs combined.

Defensively the Eagles are conceding a respectable 20.3 PPG. 

New Orleans is 8-1 overall, having won eight in a row. All good things come to an end right? Well, I won’t actually call for an outright upset here 

Saints’ veteran QB Drew Brees has 2,601 passing yards with a 21/1 TD/INT. The Saints lead most offensive categories and they have too, as the defense has been nothing special, allowing 25.8 PPG. 

I’ll point out that Philly is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 following a divisional contest and 4-1 ATS in its last five following a loss to a division rival, while New Orleans is already 0-2 ATS this year as a home favorite of 7.5 to ten points. 

Wentz and the offense will be given the green light and they catch a break today facing the Saints’ terrible secondary. 

I like Philadelphia to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Wipeout Winner on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).

I think the Titans predictably stumble here after their epic win over New England last week.

The Colts and the ever-improving Andrew Luck continue to get little respect, as they come into this one on top form with three straight victories.

Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota has sure looked a lot better of late as well, leading his team to back-to-back victories. Last week Mariota had 228 yards and two TDs against the Pats. Prior to this two-game sure though he had six TDs and eight INTs.

Luck has been the beneficiary of a revamped offensive line and he’s now playing arguably the best ball of his entire career. Luck or Mariota in College, who would you take? Last week Indy had 366 yards and 29 points on Jacksonville. 

I’ll point out as well that Tennessee is still just 9-13 ATS in its last 22 on the road and a horrible 2-8 ATS in its last ten after two or more SU wins, while Indy is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home favorite of three points or less.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Colts.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 35 Club Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).

Both teams are 4-5 and each is desperate for a victory. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this match-up though.

It’s difficult to win on the road and the Cowboys come in off a big road victory just last week over the Eagles in Philadelphia, but asking Dallas to duplicate that big effort on consecutive weeks is going to be just too much for the visitors today.

Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott had 270 yards and a TD in the win over the Eagles last week, while RB Ezekiel Elliot had 151 yards and a TD. 

The Falcons most recently lost to the Browns after they had won big on the road the week before. As stated off the top, having to win on the road is difficult at the best of times, but having to do it two weeks in a row is extremely difficult and Atlanta fell victim to a hungry Cleveland team.

The Cowboys now face the identical situation here. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan had 330 yards and two scores last week, while WR Julio Jones had 107 receiving yards and seven catches. 

I’ll point out that Dallas is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win, while Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a non-conference road loss of more than ten points.

The stage is set for a predictable letdown for Dallas after its big prime time win over the defending champs. Lay the points and expect a rout.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Showdown is on the Green Bay Packers (8:20 EST).

This is essentially a do or die game for each team. Both are on the fringe of the playoff picture and a loss today would pretty much spell the end.

So with that in mind, I’m absolutely expecting a battle until the final whistle. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.

Green Bay enters off a confidence building 31-12 home win over Miami, while Seattle comes in off a deflating 36-31 road loss to the Rams.

Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has 2,741 passing yards with a 17/1 TD/INT. Overall the Packers out gained the Fish 377-294. I believe that Green Bay carries over both its offensive and defensive momentum into this one vs. an motivationally drained Seahawks side. 

Seattle QB Russell Wilson has 1,967 yards with 21 TDs and five INTs. So far Wilson has been sacked 29 times this year. Chris Carson leads the ground game with only 497 yards and two scores.

It’s a short week, so I don’t think home field advantage is a factor. Additionally note that Green Bay is 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night games, while Seattle is just 10-14 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite (only 1-2 ATS in its three Thursday night games as well.)

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Monday Night Madness is on the New York Giants (8:15 EST)

These are two horrible teams, but I think that a week off to prepare for this one will do Eli Manning and Odell Beckham and the rest of the Giants “good” on Monday night. 

San Francisco comes in off a 34-3 win over the hapless Raiders, but with its bye week upcoming, I absolutely feel that this sets up as a classic “let down/look-ahead” spot for the home side.

Beckham recently joked that he expects his team to finish the season on an 8-0 run and make the playoffs and while that clearly isn’t going to happen, I think Manning has at least one more decent effort in him (especially after the bye week.) 

The 49ers are on their third QB of the year in Nick Mullens and while he looked decent against a poor Raiders’ unit, I think he’ll have his hands full with this much deeper Giants’ defense. 

Note as well that New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following its bye week and on a three games or more SU losing streak.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Sunday Night Magic is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:20 EST).

Golden Tate makes his debut with the Eagles on Sunday night and I think he and Carson Wentz will be too much for the struggling Cowboys to handle.

After a slow start, the defending champs now sit one game behind the Redskins for the NFC East lead. Washington is now suffering through injuries, so the door is now open for the Eagles to put the foot on the gas and re-gain command.

Dallas comes in reeling, it’s dropped two straight, most recently a listless 28-14 setback on Monday to Tennessee. WR Amari Cooper had five catches for 58 yards and a TD. 

Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott threw for 243 yards and two TDs, but he was also sacked five times and he’d go on to throw an INT in the end zone as well. 

The Dallas defense looked horrible as well, allowing Tennessee to convert 11 of 14 on third down. Also note that the Cowboys committed two turnovers for a second straight game.

Wentz dominated the Cowboys last year in two games, going for 413 yards, four TDs and zero INTs.

The Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 following an ATS win and after dropping their last two games at home, I expect Philadelphia to lay the hammer down here early and often.

For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).

Cleveland isn’t going to the playoffs. The Browns have already won a couple of games this year, which is clearly a vast improvement over last season’s winless squad.

But the Falcons come in on top form and I believe that momentum is going to be carried over.

After a 1-4 start, Atlanta has now won three straight. 

The Falcons are averaging 28.5 PPG and they’re allowing 28.3. The offense is averaging 338 YPG through the air. QB Matt Ryan has 2,685 passing yards and a sharp 19/3 TD/INT ratio.

Cleveland has “improved” over last year’s inept squad, but the numbers still aren’t great. Overall Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense is averaging 21.1 PPG, while the defense is conceding 27.4. 

I’ll point out as well that ATL is a sharp 9-4 ATS in its last 13 following two or more SU victories, while Cleveland is just 6-23 ATS in its last 29 after two or more consecutive SU losses.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Falcons.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST).

The 7-1 New Orleans Saints are in Cincinnati to take on the 5-3 Bengals on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, I think that Drew Brees and company finally run out of gas here.

New Orleans most recently took care of the Rams in a high-scoring affair at home last weekend. Brees had 346 yards and four TDs, while Alvin Kamara had 83 yards and two TDs. 

The Saints have to be feeling pretty content after that last win and I think this non-conference road game will lead to a mental letdown after last week’s big victory.

Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton had 280 yards and two TD’s in his team’s most recent win over the Bucs. 

From a trend based stand point, note that New Orleans has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors by going just 4-5 ATS in its last nine non-conference games.

Despite AJ Green having to sit this one out for Cincinnati, I think the Bengals will keep this competitive. 

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).

Two desperate teams collide on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, the home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up.

Both teams are 3-5. 

Jacksonville comes in on a four-game slide, most recently getting man-handled in England by Philadelphia 24-18. QB Blake Bortles has 2,021 passing yards, but a weak 10/8 TD/INT. TJ Yeldon leads the run game with 334 yards. Overall the Jags are averaging only 16.9 PPG, while allowing just 313.2 YPG on the defensive side, good enough for second in the league.

The Colts come in with momentum, they most recently destroyed Oakland 42-28. QB Andrew Luck has 2,187 passing yards with 28 TDs and eight INTs. RB Marlon Back has 381 yards and three TDs. Overall the Colts are posting 28.9 PPG. 

I’ll point out as well that the Jags are just 1-5 ATS in their last six following a loss, while the Colts are 32-13 ATS in their last 45 against teams with losing records.

The Colts’ suspect defense catches a big break this week facing the horrible Jags’ offense. Look for Luck to push the pace and for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* Showdown on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 EST).

Carolina looks poised for a letdown here after its third straight win, a satisfying 42-28 conference victory over Tampa Bay at home on Sunday. 

Pittsburgh will look to take advantage of his favorable non conference matchup at home and improve upon its four-game win streak, most recently a hard-fought 23-16 road victory over Baltimore on Sunday. 

Carolina QB Cam Newton has 1,893 passing yards with 15 TDs and four INTs. He’s also been sacked 12 times. Newton has a plethora of weapons surrounding him and his defense is above average.

Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has 2,560 passing yards with 16 TDs, seven INTs and 11 sacks. Like his counterpart today, Big Ben has many weapons to utilize and his defense continues to improve each week. 

So where’s the advantage?!

Note that Carolina is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Pittsburgh is already 2-0 ATS this year after two or more consecutive SU victories. 

Lay the points and expect a rout. 

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* Monday Night Magic on the Tennessee Titans (8:15 EST).

Dallas made a move last week to acquire WR Amari Cooper from the Raiders and while the move may prove to pay dividends, both in the short and long-term, I expect the desperate Titans to pull out all the stops today and at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. 

Both teams come out of their bye weeks, so each has had the extra time off to prepare, making that angle a “wash.” 

Both teams have struggled to put points on the board this season, getting inconsistent play from their star QB’s. I’m going to call this area a “wash” as well.

Special teams and defensive play is almost entirely on par as well in my opinion. Dallas is already 2.5 games behind the Redskins, but the Titans are equally as desperate and hungry for a victory here as well.

Note that Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and 5-0 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Dallas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a division rival and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (8:20 EST).

With a chance to smash the Packers out of contention further, I think Tom Brady will get the better of Aaron Rodgers on Sunday night.

Green Bay comes in off a disheartening setback to the Rams, covering the spread, but ultimately coming up short on the SU outright upset. The Pats meanwhile beat the Chiefs at home before then crushing the Bills on the road last Monday. 

Rodgers was held to just 286 passing yards and one TD last week. The Packers looked pretty good defensively, but having to perform at such a high level on back to back weeks on the road against such elite level offenses is going to be just too much for Green Bay’s unit to handle in my opinion. 

The Pats’ defense looked awesome last week, holding the Bills out of the end zone. Brady continues to dominate and he’s going to have his way with this “gassed” Packers secondary in my opinion.

I’ll point out as well that New England is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 following an ATS win and 13-3 ATS in its last 16 against teams with losing records, while Green Bay is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road.

Rodgers and the Packers are in the wrong place at the wrong time in trying to hope for a bounce back. Brady is playing like a man on a mission right now and I think he can smell the blood in the water.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns 8* (1:00 EST).

Kansas City has been nearly unstoppable this season, but I think the Chiefs will get caught “looking past” their lowly opponent today.

KC comes in off a 30-23 home win over Detroit, while Cleveland lost 33-18 to Pittsburgh last week. 

The Chiefs are averaging a whopping 36.2 PPG, but they’re allowing 25.6. Patrick Mahomes has a 26/6 TD/INT thus far.

The Browns are averaging 21.1 PPG and they’re conceding 26.2. QB Baker Mayfield has 1,471 passing yards and a positive 8/6 TD/INT. No. 1 receiver Jarvis Landry has 18 catches over his last two games. 

Note though that KC is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a road favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Cleveland is already 3-1 ATS at home this year.

The Browns have been competitive in front of the home town crowd this season and I expect that trend to carry over here. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets 10* (1:00 EST).

These are two terrible teams with plenty of issues. As wild as he’s been at times, I still think that the Jets’ Sam Darnold is a better pivot the Dolphins’ back up QB Brock Osweiler. 

Darnold lost 24-10 to the Bears last Sunday, going for 154 yards and a TD with no picks. New York’s strength though is on the defensive side of the ball, last week holding Chicago to just 259.8 yards through the air. 

Osweiler and the home side come in off a terrible 42-23 loss at Houston last Thursday. Osweiler had 241 yards passing and an INT. The offense ranks 27th overall. 

I’ll point out that New York is a sharp 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after two or more consecutive losses and 6-4 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Miami is 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses and just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against clubs with losing records.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Losers Night Out is on the Oakland Raiders (8:20 EST).

The Raiders are in tough as they come in off a third straight loss in a 42-28 setback to Indianapolis, while the 49ers fell 18-15 on the road in Arizona this past weekend. 

Raiders’ QB Derek Carr is the difference maker for me though in this one. Carr is the best player on the field and he so far has 2,027 passing yards and a 10/8 TD:INT. RB Marshawn Lynch is out for the season, which is likely  good thing. Now it’s just “next man up.” Doug Martin so far has 40 carries and 171 yards. 

The 49ers are 1-7 and have nothing to play. The Raiders are essentially playing for pride as well today, but as stated off the top, I think Carr has a major advantage over 49ers’ QB CJ Beathard, who has 1,252 yards with eight TD’s and seven INT’s. Last week the 49ers put up just 267 yards of offense, while allowing 20 first downs.

Additionally I’ll point out that Oakland is still 12-7 ATS in its last 19 when the line in the contest is between +3 and -3, while San Francisco is a horrible 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a favorite, including 0-3 ATS this year.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Sunday Night Football Magic is on the Minnesota Vikings (8:20 EST).

New Orleans enters off a tough 24-23 road win over Baltimore and I think it’ll predictably stumble in this difficult road venue and against one of the league’s other great defensive units. 

Minnesota is back on track after a shaky start to the campaign, most recently destroying the Jets 37-17 on the road last weekend. These teams met in the playoffs last year and the Vikes won 29-24. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar result here as well.

New Orleans has averaged 42.0 PPG in the early going, but the unit struggled for most of last week in Baltimore. And it’s not going to get any easier in Minnesota. The Saints have one of the best run defenses in the league, but they’re ranked 28th against the pass, which doesn’t bode well facing Kirk Cousins and a Vikes offense which has suddenly “found” itself. 

Minnesota is ranked 13th in total offense and last week it gave up just 263 total yards to Sam Darnold and the Jets.

Note as well that the Vikes are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with winning road records.

I think Drew Brees and the Saints finally have a letdown. Play on the Vikings.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).

After a big come from behind win over the Eagles on the road last weekend, I think the Panthers carry that momentum over here in this non-conference matchup at home against the Ravens, who enter off a loss to the Saints.

Baltimore’s defense has been superb this year, allowing only 14.4 PPG, but I think it comes in “gassed” and deflated this week after the late collapse last week against New Orleans. QB Joe Flacco continues to be consistently inconsistent and I don’t see that trend changing this week either in what is a very difficult road venue.

Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had 269 passing yards and two TD’s in last week’s come from behind victory for the ages. Newton was unbelievable, but so too was the Panthers’ defense when it needed to be down the stretch. 

Note that Carolina is 6-2 ATS in its last eight at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while Baltimore is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine non-conference games.

For all the reasons listed above play on the Panthers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST).

A couple of hungry 3-3 teams collide on Sunday afternoon, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest. 

I think Seattle stumbles here in this difficult road venue after winning three of its last four. QB Russell Wilson has 1,308 passing yards and a 13/4 TD/INT. Overall the ground game is averaging 127.8 YPG, with Chris Carson leading the way with 352 yards and a TD. Overall the Hawks are allowing 19.5 PPG.

Detroit comes in having won two in a row and five of their last seven at home. QB Matt Stafford has 1,602 passing yards and a 12/5 TD/INT. 

Note that Stafford has two or more TD passes in seven of his last nine games. The ground game has been strong for the Lions as well with an average of 122.3 YPG. Overall Detroit is giving up 26.3 PP, but note that the Seahawks are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 following an ATS victory.

Detroit will look to take advantage, note that it’s already 4-1 ATS in its last fie at home (note as well that the home team is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series.)

I think the extra rest off leads to rust for the visitors and I look for the Lions to carry over their recent momentum.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Jacksonville Jaguars (9:30 AM EST).

A “trip across the pond” is just what the doctor ordered for the Jags to get back on track in my opinion, while I believe this trip will have a detrimental effect on the struggling defending champions.

Philadelphia comes in off a deflating 21-17 home loss to Carolina and I believe it’s ripe for the picking here. 

Jacksonville enters off a second straight loss in a 20-7 setback to Houston in its latest action. 

Philadelphia has dropped three of its last four and it’s averaging 22 PPG and conceding 19.7. QB Carson Wentz has been fantastic in his time on the field with a 10/1 TD/INT over five games.

Jacksonville got off to a great start in Week 1 over the Patriots, but overall it’s averaging only 16.6 PPG. The defense has been a strength of the Jags, conceding only 20.9 PPG. 

The Jags have the No. 1 pass defense in the league, which doesn’t bode well for Wentz. 

Additionally note that Philadelphia is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Jacksonville is 9-3 ATS as an underdog in the same points range.

For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF MONTH is on the Houston Texans (8:20 EST).

These two teams are trending in opposite directions and I expect those trends to continue on the short week.

The Dolphins are reeling, losers of three straight, most recently a 32-21 setback at home to Detroit last weekend, while the Texans are surging, posting their fourth straight victory with a convincing 20-7 road win at Jacksonville. 

Last week Miami was out gained 457-322, including allowing a whopping 248 rushing yards. QB Ryan Tannehill has 972 passing yards and a weak 8/5 TD/INT. But he’s been injured the last two games and he’s questionable for this one as well, meaning the volatile Brock Osweiler will likely start here and he has six TDs, two INTs and he’s also been sacked six times.

The Dolphins are also without Cameron Wake, who is out having knee surgery last week. 

Texans’ QB DeShaun Watson will look to take advantage. He so far has 1,937 passing yards with ten TDs and seven INTs. Lamar Miller leads the ground attack with 371 yards and a TD. WR DeAndre Hopkins has 707 yards and four scores this year as well.

Additionally I’ll point out that Miami is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU victories.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Texans.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Losers Night Out is on the Atlanta Falcons (8:15 EST).

It’s “do or die” essentially for both teams. The Falcons come in off a much needed home win over the Buccaneers and they’ll look to win two in a row for the first time all year and once and for all extinguish any hopes for Giants fans this season.

The Giants’ are getting poor defensive play and their aging QB Eli Manning is unable to make the same throws that he used to. That has led to a “rift” between him and his main WR Odell Beckham Jr. 

The one bright spot for New York has been the play of rookie RB Saquon Barkley, who topped 100 yards rushing in last week’s loss, but who also had 99 receiving yards. 

Atlanta catches a break this week defensively facing New York’s incredibly one-dimensional offense. 

Last week Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan threw for 354 yards and three TD’s. Over his last four games Ryan has posted 1,432 passing with an incredible 12/0 TD/INT ratio while completing a whopping 73.2 percent of his passes. 

Atlanta has plenty to be positive about, as it does in fact only sit 2 1/2 games behind the Saints for the division lead. And with upcoming games against “bottom tier” competition (including Cleveland), the Falcons will look to deliver the “knock out blow” to the Giants early in my opinion. 

I’ll point out as well that New York is still just 3-6 ATS in its lsat nine as a road underdog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the same points range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Falcons.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Sunday Magic is on the Cincinnati Bengals (8:20 EST).

This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to come out on top and because of that, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

Cincinnati will be hungry to get back into the winners circle here after a 28-21 loss at home to Pittsburgh, while KC looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its 43-40 loss in New England last Sunday night.

The Bengals are averaging 29 PPG and they’re conceding the 23rd most points. QB Andy Dalton has 1,674 passing yards and a respectable 14/7 TD/INT. 

The Chiefs are averaging 35.8 PPG, but they’re 32nd in the league in total yards allowed per game. 

I’ll point out as well that the Bengals are already 3-1 ATS this season as an underdog and 6-3 ATS in their last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while KC is still only 1-3 ATS in its last four against the AFC North.

After a hard-fought loss to the Pats, I think the Chiefs are “running on empty.” I like the Bengals high-flying offense to keep this one competitive. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 35-Club Play is on the Dallas Cowboys (4:25 EST).

Washington sits atop the NFC East, but each team comes in with identical 3-3 records. To say this is an important game would be an understatement. 

Washington has looked great at times this year and pretty pedestrian in others this season. Dallas has struggled, but it broke out in a big way last week and I think it’ll carry that momentum over into this one.

Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott led his team to a 40-7 win over Jacksonville last week, going 17 of 27 for 183 yards and two TDs. WR Cole Beasley had two TD catches and 101 yards on the night. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 106 yards rushing and a 15-yard TD run as well. 

The Dallas defense looked great, limiting the Jags to just 204 yards of total offense, while also forcing two turnovers.

Overall the Cowboys are averaging 20.5 PPG and conceding 17.2. 

The Redskins are averaging 21.2 PPG and conceding 20.8. Last week they held on for a 23-17 victory over the Panthers as Alex Smith would go for 163 yards and two TDs. RB Adrian Peterson would post 97 yards on 17 carries.

I’ll point out though that Washington is a poor 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. the NFC East and only 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a SU victory. 

Dallas on the other hand is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after posting more than 150 yards rushing in its previous game. 

The Boys have covered in five of the last seven in this series and the underdog has covered in 30 of the last 40 meetings. 

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).

Carolina comes in off a 23-17 loss to the Redskins on the road, while the Eagles enter off a 34-13 road win over the Giants (I had Philly in that one.) 

Note that this is a revenge game for Carolina as Philadelphia won 28-23 on the road last year.

Overall the Panthers are averaging 24.2 PPG and conceding 22.8. RB Christian McCaffrey has 349 yards and he leads the fourth ranked rushing unit in the league. In last week’s loss Cam Newton was solid in defeat with 275 yards, two TD’ and an INT.

Philadelphia looked a lot better last week, but I’m going to caution in reading too much into the victory over the hapless Giants. Newton and the Panthers are an entirely different “animal.” 

Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz was a stand-out last week with 278 yards, three TDs and no INTs. Overall Philadelphia is averaging 22.8 PPG and conceding 19.5. 

I’ll point out thought agh Carolina is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog, while Philadelphia is only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

The Panthers desperately need a road victory to keep pace with their division and I think they catch the defending champs “flat footed” here. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 EST).

Tampa looks to get back on track at home after three straight losses and take advantage of a Browns team which enters off a blowout loss at home to the Bolts.

Baker Mayfield’s numbers have declined steadily each game he’s played. He doesn’t have much help either throwing to the likes of Antonio Callaway, Jarvis Landry and Damion Ratley. Note that no pass catcher has more than one TD on the team.

For the record, Mayfield has four TDs and five INTs. Last week he was held to 47.8 percent passing with one TD. 

Tampa comes back home desperate for a win as well after last week’s 34-29 loss to the Falcons. The defense has fallen apart of late, allowing 439.8 YPG, but clearly the unit catches a big break to bounce back this week facing Cleveland’s anemic attack. 

The Bucs’ offense looked a lot better with Jameis Winston back under center last week though and I think that momentum gets carried over here.

Note as well that Tampa is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 after allowing more than 350 yards in its previous game, while Cleveland is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 on the road.

I think this is going to be a blowout from start to finish. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* “Loser’s Night Out” is on the Denver Broncos (8:20 EST)

Denver is on the road to face Arizona desperate for a victory after dropping four straight, most recently a 23-20 setback to the Rams. 

Arizona beat the 49ers, but then it predictably came back down to Earth in last week’s 27-17 road loss in Minnesota. 

Denver’ QB Case Keenum has 1,647 yards with seven TD’s and eightt INT’s this year. Philip Lindsay has been a standout on the ground with 346 yards and a TD, while Royce Freeman has 272 yards rushing with three TD’s. 

The Cards have been splitting time at QB between Josh Rosen (626 yards, two TD’s, two INT’s and seven sacks) and Sam Bradford (400 yards, two TD’s, four INT’s and six sacks.) David Johnson has 297 yards and five TD’s. 

Denver closed strong last week though and I think it carries that momentum over here. The Broncos are the more “skilled” team across the board and note that they’re also 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.

The Cards on the other hand are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight at home.

I have a hard time seeing Arizona’s offense producing against Denver’s aggressive defense. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFL Week 6 las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 8:20 ET.

KC is so far unbeaten (5-0), but I think that string finally comes to an end in this difficult road venue. 

Last week the Chiefs beat the Jaguars 30-14 at home. Patrick Mahomes was average, throwing for 313 passing, two INT’s, while also running for a TD.

After a 1-2 start, the Patriots have now won two in a row, most recently smashing the Colts 38-24 on October 4h. QB Tom Brady was phenomenal in the victory with three TDs, while rookie RB Sony Michel had 98 yards rushing and a TD as well.

A loss would top the Pats three games behind KC and potentially two behind the Jags, while also being two grind the Bengals. New England’s success over the years has counted on earning the bye in the first week of the playoffs, so for all intents and purposes, this has become a “must win” game for New England if it hopes to keep that string of success alive.

Note as well that the Patriots have won ten straight home games since a 33-30 loss to Carolina in Week 4 of 2017. New England has in fact averaged 34.3 points and 425.3 yards in three home wins this year.

And finally note that New England is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 after scoring 30 points or more in its previous contest, while Kansas City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after reposing more than 350 yards in its previous game.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Patriots.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Dallas Cowboys (4:25 EST).

I believe the more “desperate” team will win here. Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott’s ability is being called into question and I believe the beleaguered pivot will respond with his best performance of the season.

The Jags come in off a tough 40-14 road loss at Kansas City and they now have to muster up the energy for another difficult road match-up this week. 

Dallas enters off a 19-16 OT loss at Houston last Sunday. 

The Jags are averaging only 20.5 PPG and they’re conceding 17.4. QB Blake Bortles has 1,525 passing yards and a weak 8/7 TD/INT. RB Leonard Fournette has struggled with a hamstring issue and it’s clearly effected the chemistry of the offense.

Dallas is averaging only 16.6 PPG and it’s conceding only 19.2. Prescott had 961 passing yards with five TDs and four INTs, while also running for 121 yards. RB Ezekiel Elliot has 480 yards and two TDs.

I’ll point out though that Jacksonville is a poor 3-6 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 as a favorite, while Dallas is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog of three points or less range.

I think Elliot and the home side defense delivers a victory for Jerry Jones on Sunday afternoon.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Oddsmakers Error is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).

I think this spread could in fact be a lot larger considering all of the great situational factors working in favor of the desperate Falcons today.

Atlanta is just 1-4 overall after three straight loss to the Saints, Bengals and Steelers. Tampa started the season well, but it stumbled with two straight losses before its bye week.

Now Tampa welcomes back starting QB Jameis Winston to the fold, after Ryan “Fitz-Magic” predictably came back down to Earth after a couple of big games to start the year.

The Bucs’ weakness on defense? Their pass rush and defending the pass. Jason Pierre-Paul has four sacks and nine QB hits, however Tampa is still tied for 26th in sack rate after five weeks. 

Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan is still seventh in the league with 1,601 passing passing yards. The Falcons will look to take advantage of a Tampa team which has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against teams with losing home records and 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 on the road overall. 

I think Winston will go through some “growing pains” in his debut and I believe it’s also worth noting that the favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 in this series as well.

Lay the points, play on Atlanta.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).

The Jets broke a two-game slide with a 34-16 win over Denver last week. QB Sm Darnold was just 10 of 22 for 198 yards, but he also had three TD’s. The big difference offensively was the run game, which posted 323 rushing yards. Darnold has a weak 7/6 TD/INT and he’s looked brilliant at times this year and very much like a rookie in others.

Overall the Jets are averaging 24.6 PPG and conceding 21. 

Indianapolis comes in off a 38-24 loss to the Patriots last Thursday night. QB Andrew Luck had 365 passing yards, three TDs and two INTs. TE Eric Ebron finished with 105 yards and two TDs. So far Luck has a strong 12/5 TD/INT. The Colts have come out on the short end of the stick this season, as they’ve been outscored by four points per game on average. Overall Indianapolis is averaging 23.6 PPG and conceding 27.6. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Indianapolis is still 6-2 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive losses, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite of three points or less.

I think Luck is the difference here. The Colts finally get over the hump here and find a way to punch one into the win column. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFC East Showdown is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:20 EST).

While they’ve struggled to this point, I still think that the defending Champion Philadelphia Eagles have the better QB, defense and special teams in this match-up and I look for them to find a way to get the job done on the short week.

Philadelphia has yet to win on the road this year, but the Eagles are still 5-3 SU their last eight away from friendly confines. 

Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz has completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 914 yards, five TD’s and one INT. Note that Wentz has two or more TD passes in ten of his last 12 games. With Jay Ajayi now out for the rest of the year, look for Wentz and Zach Ertz to step up here. Overall the Eagles are allowing 20.8 PPG and only 343.2 yards.

New York’s ground game is averaging only 75.6 YPG. Rookie Saquon Barkley has looked brilliant at times and poor in others. QB Eli Manning is completing 71.7 percent of his passes for six TD’s and three INT’s. 

Home field advantage has been anything but for New York though, which is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home.

The Eagles though loving coming to “The Big Apple,” as evidenced by their sharp 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 played in New York.

Additionally note that Philadelphia is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three Thursday night games, while New York is 0-2 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests.

I’m banking on a blowout. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* SNF MAGIC is on the Dallas Cowboys (8:20 EST).

Both teams got back into the win column last week. Each will be as equally hungry this week for another victory. I’m expecting an all out war until the final whistle.

Dallas enters off a 26-24 home win over Detroit last week to even its recent at 2-2. RB Ezekiel Elliot was unstoppable, going for 152 yards rushing, four catches for 88 yards and also a TD. QB Dak Prescott was 17 of 27 for 255 yards and two TD’s. 

On the defensive side, Cowboys DE DeMarcus Lawrence had three sacks last week. 

Houston is still on the ropes despite last week’s victory, sitting at 1-3. DeShaun Watson had 375 yards, two TD’s and an INT in an exhausting 37-34 OT win over Indianapolis. De’Andre Hopkins had 169 yards and a TD. 

I’ll point out though that Houston has really struggled in this spot for bettors, going 0-6 ATS in its last six off a win against a division rival (also note that it’s a poor 8-9 ATS In its last 17 at home), while Dallas has in fact excelled in this position by going 10-7 ATS in its last 17 on the road (despite being 0-2 ATS this year) and 6-3 ATS in its last nine against teams with losing records.

This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to be the one which comes out on top. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 35-Club Play is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST).

To “be the champ” you have to “beat the champ.” That’s the old saying right?

Seattle hasn’t really been the “top dog” in the NFC West for a couple years now, but no team has really stepped up to dominate the No. 1 slot. It’s been in limbo until this season, as clearly the 4-0 Rams are the “cream of the crop” of the division, the conference and perhaps the league at this point.

However, this will be LA’s chance to officially and once and for all take full control as the division leader and I look for the high-powered Rams to do just that.

Rams’ QB Jared Goff already has 1,406 yards, 11 TD’s and just two INT’s, while RB Todd Gurley II has 338 rushing yards and four TD’s. WR Brandin Cooks has 452 receiving yards, while Cooper Kupp has 348 yards and four TD’s.

Overall the Rams are averaging 35 PPG and conceding just 16.8.

Seattle comes in off a much tougher than expected 20-17 win at Arizona last week. QB Russell Wilson has 888 yards, seven TD’s and three INT’s. RB Chris Carson has 177 yards on the ground, while WR Tyler Lockett has 249 yards and three TD’s. 

Overall the Hawks average just 21.2 PPG, while allowing 20.3.

The Rams come in well rested after playing last Thursday and they have all the motivation in the World this week to put one more nail in the Seahawks’ coffin this season.

I’ll point out as well that Seattle is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU wins, while LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rams.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).

Both teams are desperate for a victory and I’m expecting an all out battle until the end. 

Atlanta is 1-3 overall and it’s coming off consecutive home losses to New Orleans and Cincinnati. The Steelers have struggled as well this year, most recently coming off a humbling loss at home to the Ravens.

Atlanta is 28th in the league on the defensive side of the ball, but it did look somewhat better in the second half of its 37-36 loss to the Bengals. The offense took a step back last year, but it’s now the team’s strength. 

Matt Ryan and company will be given the green light here today obviously to test this suspect Steelers’ secondary.

The Steelers have been dealing with on field and off field issues all year. Note that Pittsburgh isn’t going to have star RB Le’Veon Bell back until Week 8 against Cleveland and his backup James Conner is averaging just 3.7 YPC. 

With such a one-dimensional offense, the Falcons’ defense definitely catches a break this week. 

I’ll point out as well that ATL is still 7-3 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records, while Pittsburgh is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine in the same position.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST).

The New York Giants’ season is on the line, as a 1-4 record would almost assuredly be too much for it to dig out of to make the playoffs.

Last week the Giants fell 33-18 at home to the Saints. QB Eli Maning so far has 1,055 yards with four TD’s and one INT, wile RB Saquon Barkley has 260 rushing yards and three TD’s. WR Odell Beckham Jr. has 331 receiving yards. The offense has been the weak point to this point, but the defense has kept the team competitive each week.

The Panthers are clearly the “better” team, but they come in off their bye-week and think that “rest” is going to lead to “rust.” QB Cam Newtwon has 646 yards with five TD’s and one INT, while also rushing for three more TD’s. RB Christian McCaffrey has 271 yards on the ground. 

Fortunately for the Giants, the Panthers only average 23.7 PPG. 

Also note that Carolina is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New York is 5-2 ATS In its last seven as an underdog in the same points range.

I think the Giants’ defense once again keeps them in this one. Grab the points, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New England Patriots (8:20 EST).

I had a play on New England last week in its 38-7 win over the Dolphins. 

A short week is tough on both teams, but doubly so for the road side. The Pats come in off a confidence building win and they’ll be out to build off that victory and take advantage of this favorable spot against a dejected Colts team which comes in off a 37-34 OT loss to the Texans.

The Colts rallied from a 28-10 hole, but in the end it wasn’t enough and after that heart-breaker, I don’t believe the team has had enough time to collectively re-group to face New England. QB Andrew Luck has 1,126 yards, nine TD’s and three INT’s so far, but he’s also been sacked nine times.

Pats’ QB Tom Brady has 918 yards with nine TD’s and four INT’s. He’s been sacked six times. Note that the offense gets a major boost here as well with the return of main WR Julian Edelman from his four game suspension. 

TY Hilton is listed as questionable for the Colts and if he does manage to suit up, one has to wonder what type of form he’ll be in?

I’ll point out that the Colts are a poor 12-15 ATS in their last 27 as the underdog, while the Patriots are a superb 29-12 in their last 41 as the favorite.

For all the reasons listed above, play on New England.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Denver Broncos (8:15 EST).

The bookmakers are leading us to believe that Kansas City will continues its blistering start to the season with another massive offensive performance on the road and on the National stage.

I’m not convinced though. A “letdown” is imminent at some point for Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs, and the thin air of Mile High will prove to be the difference in my opinion.

Outright upset? Of course it’s not out of the question, but in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever one of these team’s has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.

The Chiefs are 3-0, but the Broncos are 2-1 and they aren’t going down without a fight tonight.

Here is an amazing fact, and one which I believe will catch up to Kansas City today, as note that it’s been out-gained in all three games that it’s played in so far this year.

Denver ran out of gas against Baltimore in Week 3 after holding a 14-10 lead after one quarter. 

Mahomes and the Chiefs played in Denver in Week 17 last year and he wasn’t his best, going 22 of 35 for 281 yards and an INT. KC won the game 27-24.

I’ll point out as well that KC is still just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records, while Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Broncos.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* MAGIC is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 EST).

Pittsburgh comes in off a big win over Tampa Bay, but I think it’ll take a predictable step back here. 

Baltimore lost to Cincinnati, but it bounced back big last week against the Broncos and I look for it to carry that momentum over here.

Ravens’ RB Alex Collins has struggled so far this year, but he now faces a porous Pittsburgh defensive front which is allowing 122.3 YPG on the ground to opposing offenses. QB Joe Flacco continues to look great at times and poor in others.

Pittsburgh managed to put together its best effort of the season in last week’s victory over Tampa Bay. WR Antonio Brown had 50 yards receiving and a TD. 

Ben Roethlisberger looked great last week, but he’s always had his hands full with the Ravens’ pass rushers. 

Note as well that Pittsburgh is a poor 8-10 ATS in its last 18 at home and only 5-7 ATS In its last 12 against the division, while Baltimore is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 against the division and 9-5 ATS in its last 14 games when the line in the contest is set between +3 and -3. 

I think the Ravens take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Cleveland Browns (4:05 EST).

I had a play on the Browns last Thursday night and I think they’ll keep this one competitive here as well.

Cleveland comes in off its first win in two years against the Jets after Baker Mayfield replaced Tyrod Taylor. 

Oakland on the other hand is ripe of the picking, dejected and still searching for its first win of the season. Jon Gruden is rich, but he obviously can’t be happy where his team is currently sitting.

Last week Mayfield was 17 of 23 for 201 yards. He didn’t throw a TD, but I think he’ll have plenty of chances today against this suspect Raiders’ secondary.

Oakland has given up an average of 374.3 yards and 28 points on average this year. QB Derek Carr has averaged 312 passing yards per game, but note that he has three more INT’s than he does TD’s to this point. RB Marshawn Lynch has been a bright spot with 170 yards and three scores.

I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five at home. The Browns don’t have too many positive ATS stats after such a long losing streak, but as mentioned off the top, I do absolutely feel that the pieces are in place for Cleveland to continue progression across the board.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (1:00 EST).

It’s been a lack-lustre start for the Pats, while everything has gone right for the Dolphins to this point.

Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home team. And there’s no doubt that’s the case in this one in my opinion, as Tom Brady and New England will be out to atone for last week’s disastrous 26-10 road loss to Detroit (I had the Lions in that one, my Week 2 LEGEND.)

I think this is a classic letdown spot/trap game for Miami though after starting the year 3-0. QB Ryan Tannehill had 289 passing yards and three TD’s last week. The run game only posted 41 yards though. 

The Dolphins’ defense also allowed 345 passing yards last week. Overall Miami is averaging 25 PPG and allowing 17.3.

Brady was 14 of 26 for 133 yards, one TD and one INT last week. RB Sony Michel had 50 yards rushing last week. The defense conceded 414 total yards and overall the unit is allowing 25.7 PPG. 

I’ll point out though that Miami is still just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against the division, while New England is 8-4 ATS in the same position (also 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range.)

Brady was embarrassed last week and he’ll be out to destroy the Fish to make amends. Look for the veteran super star to put together his biggest game of the year and lay the points with confidence. Play on the Pats.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST).

My Week 3 LEGEND was on Detroit last Sunday night and it came away with the convincing win over the Patriots. I think the Lions carry that momentum over here.

Dallas is a mess and I think it’s ripe for the picking. So far it’s scored the fewest points through its first three games of a season since 1990. 

Last week the Cowboys fell 24-13 to Seattle. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 127 yards, but QB Dak Prescott was just 19 of 34 for 168 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Prescott has been a disaster, not throwing for more than 170 yards in any game so far while posting a miserable 33.7 QBR.

The Cowboys’ defense took a blow last week as well when DL Tyrone Crawford and safety Jeff Heath both left with injury. So far Dallas averages 13.7 PPG, while allowing 17.7.

Detroit is averaging 393.3 YPG, but just 23.3 PPG. The defense is allowing 29.3 PPG, but clearly the unit catches a big break this week facing the punchless Cowboys’ offense. 

Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford was 27 of 36 for 262 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Pats’ QB Tom Brady was held to just 133 yards, one TD and one INT. 

Note as well that Dallas is just 12-25-1 ATS in its last 38 on field turf, while Detroit is 6-1-1 ATS In its last eight against a team with a losing record.

Detroit’s offense looked good last week and I expect it to be a difference maker in tho sone as well. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Vikings (8:20 EST).

Outright victory? Anything is possible. Just ask the Vikings, who were 17 points favorites at home over the lowly Bills last week and they’d end up falling 27-6. 

Minnesota handled a dangerous 49ers team 24-16 in Week 1 and then laid everything on the line in a 29-29 tie with Green Bay in Week 2.

Clearly the Vikes were still hung over from that divisional battle and while there’s definitely some room for concern, I’m not going to over-react to one poor game.

Minnesota has been the cream of the crop over the last two years, so I’m expecting an immediate return to competitive form on both sides of the ball here.

The Rams are 3-0 to start the year and I think they come in complacent. Everything’s gone right for LA to this point, while the Vikes at 1-1-1 are not happy at all. In fact, another loss and Minnesota’s season will be on the line for all intents and purposes.

There’s no question in my mind who this game means more too. Overall the Vikes are ranked 14th in the league in offense, while LA is ranked fifth (although those defensive numbers are skewed because of the shutout win over the Cardinals in the early going.) 

Last week the Rams allowed 300 yards passing, and note that Minnesota ranks sixth in the league in passing with 305.7 YPG. LA had three picks last week, but doing so again against Kirk Cousins will be much more difficult.

LA has a strong one-two punch with QB Jared and RB Todd Gurley, but the Vikes’ strength on defense is against the run, allowing 84.8 YPG last season. 

The Vikes’ pass defense is strong as well, giving up just 237 yards to the Niners and only 253 to Aaron Rodgers, while also sacking him four times. 

Is it important that Minnesota is 3-0 ATS in its last three against the NFC West? It doesn’t hurt anyways. Also note that LA is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU wins.

Grab the points, play on the Vikes.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Everything has gone right for Tampa to this point, while everything has gone wrong to Pittsburgh in the early going. 

Despite that being true to this point, I think the now desperate Steelers behind their Hall Of Fame QB will find a way to get the job done here. 

And that’s because it’s virtually impossible to even make the Playoffs, let alone contend for the Super Bowl after starting the year 0-3. 

The Steelers gave up 21 points to the Browns in Week 1’s tie, but it allowed 42 points in the blowout loss to the Chiefs in Week 2. 

Pittsburgh’s defense has long been a strength of the team, but clearly those days are in the rear view mirror. Still, the unit does have talent and I don’t think it’s nearly as horrible as what it showed in the loss to the Chiefs. 

Tampa’s Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed almost 80 percent of his passes over the first two game salong with an 8/1 TD/INT ratio. The Bucs have caught their first two opponents “off guard,” but I don’t think that’s going to be the case here today against a hyper-focused Steelers unit which will be playing with a chip on its shoulder after last week’s embarrassing performance. 

The Steelers are desperate and they’ll be leaving everything they have on the field of play today to try and secure their first win of the season. Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a road favorite of three points or less, while TB is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home dog of three points or less.

Play on the Steelers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on the Detroit Lions (8:20 EST).

An outright victory? I wouldn’t be shocked. In the end though I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

New England is ripe for the picking in my opinion after it’s listless 31-20 road loss at Jacksonville last week. 

And the Lions will be looking to take advantage, they come in desperate at 0-2 after falling 30-27 in San Francisco last weekend. 

Pats’ QB Tom Brady had 234 yards and two TD’s last week. So far he has a 5/1 TD/INT and 511 yards passing after two games. Rookie RB Sony Michel made his debut last week and he had 34 yards on ten carries. TE Rob Gronkowski had just two catches for 15 yards. So far the offense is averaging just 23.5 PPG, ranked 16th. The defense is allowing 25.5, ranked 20th. Note that offensive standout Julian Edelman will not be in this one once again, as he is still serving his four game suspension.

New England’s defense looked especially poor last week though, giving up 481 total yards and four passing TD’s to Blake Bortles and a pretty mediocre Jags’ offense.

Lions’ QB Matt Stafford had 347 yards and three TD’s in last week’s loss. So far though he has a poor 4/4 TD/INT ratio. WR Golden Tate was a bright spot in a losing cause as he had 109 receiving yards in the setback. 

So far Detroit’s offense has averaged 22 points, while the defense has conceded 39 PPG. That’s last in the NFL by a long shot, but with their season on the line, I think the Lions put it all together today with their best effort yet.

Brady is an amazing talent, but his offense is in shambles. So is his offensive line and his defense has more questions than answers.

Detroit’s new head coach Pat Patricia is already on the hot seat and with another loss the Lions can already start looking ahead to next season. 

I’ll point out as well that the Pats are in fact a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a losing home record. 

Detroit’s pass defense has been its strength on that side of the ball, allowing an average of just 168 per contest. New England is very one-dimensional with Brady obviously.

As mentioned off the top, I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, but in the end I’m going to grab the points. Play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST).

Cincinnati comes in off a confidence building 34-23 home win over Baltimore last week and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Carolina comes home off a deflating 31-24 road loss in Atlanta. 

Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton had 265 passing yards with four TD’s. Dalton so far has 508 yards and a 6/1 TD/INT ratio. RB Joe Mixon has been lost to injury, meaning that veteran RB Giovani Bernard is “the next man up.” AJ Green had a monster game last week and so far the offense has posted 34 points in each of its first two victories. 

The Bengals’ rush defense is ranked fourth in the league after two weeks, as Geno Atkins already has three sacks. Overall Cincinnati has given up an average of 23 PPG early.

Cam Newton had 335 passing yards with three TD’s for the Pantehrs last week and so far he has a 4/1 TD/INT ratio. Newton has plenty of weapons to utilize, but TE Greg Olsen remains out with injury. 

Carolina has relied on its run game early, which doesn’t bode well facing the Bengals’ tough run unit. So far Carolina has averaged 20 PPG and conceded 19.5. 

I’ll point out that Cincinnati is 10-8 ATS in its last 18 as an underdog, while Carolina is just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite.

I think this one will be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and as such, I’m going to grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Oakland Raiders (1:00 EST).

I don’t like either of these teams particularly, but I think the Dolphins are getting the job done right now with smoke and mirrors and I look for the hungry visiting side to keep it close.

Oakland comes in off a tough 20-19 setback to Denver on the road, while Miami comes home contented off its 20-12 road win over the hapless Jets. 

The Raiders beat the Fish 27-24 in Hard Rock Stadium last year and I think a similarly hard fought battle is in the cards here as well.

Oakland was blown out by the Rams in Week 1, but it looked a lot better in Week 2, despite the losing effort. It’s all or nothing though for the Raiders in Week 3, as virtually no team can even make the playoffs after starting the season 0-3. 

Raiders’ QB Derek Carr had 298 yards and a TD, but it wasn’t quite enough last week. 

But I do think it will be enough this week against a complacent 2-0 Miami team. This sets up as a classic “trap” game early in the season for the Dolphins and I think they’re going to fall right in.

Note that Miami is a terrible 16-45-3 ATS in its last 64 home games against teams with losing road records, while Oakland is a solid 4-1-2 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss.

The Dolphins have struggled against the pass this year, so the door is open for Carr to shine and deliver the goods in this crucial situation. While I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright win obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points.

Play on the Raiders.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on the Washington Redskins (1:00 EST).

Green Bay comes in off a hard-fought 29-29 tie with Minnesota at home and now has to contend with a desperate Redskins team which enters off a 21-9 home loss to Indianapolis. 

Washington is ranked tops in the league against the pass, which clearly doesn’t bode well for injured QB Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been superb in the early going, but one has to question the veterans health early, as he wore a brace in the match-up with the Vikes last weekend. Overall the Packers are averaging 26.5 PPG and allowing 26.

The Redskins are averaging 16.5 PPG and they’re allowing 13.0. Alex Smith had 292 yards through the air last week in a losing cause, but he now gets to face a Packers’ secondary which allowed Minnesota to throw for over 400 yards. 

Washington’s numbers are skewed. While averaging only 16.5 PPG, note that they’re still ranked 12th in total offense, including 14th in passing and 8th in rushing. 

The numbers don’t add up and I think we’ll see a massive correction here for the under-achieving Redskins.

With the Bills at home next week, look for Rodgers and company to fold up their tents early in the Nation’s capital on Sunday afternoon. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns (8:20 EST).

New York won its season opener against Detroit, but it fell apart in last week’s loss to Miami.

Cleveland lost its opener against the Steelers (a game it should have won), before then giving the Saints everything they could handle in Week 2.

Ultimately though I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

New York QB Sam Darnold had 334 yards against the Dolphins last week. Drew Brees struggled against the Browns’ re-worked defense and I think Darnold will have a difficult time here as well in this unfriendly road venue. 

The Browns forced six turnovers against Pittsburgh in their opener as well, including three INT’s. 

Cleveland QB Tyrod Taylor has looked decent under difficult circumstances so far and I don’t think that there’s any reason not to believe that he can’t continue his progression here as well. 

I’ll point out as well that the Jets are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine following a divisional contest.

I think the short week does Cleveland a favor in Week 3. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab as many points as I can.

The Colts come in off a 34-23 home loss to Cincinnati and they are the “hungrier” side here, as Washington returns home complacent after its 24-6 road win against Arizona.

Indianapolis looked good for three quarters last week, but in the fourth it would give up 14 points. QB Andrew Luck looked decent though, going for 319 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Overall the Colts looked good offensively against a solid defensive club. 

Indianapolis was also decent defensively, as one of the Bengals’ TD came via the defense. 

Alex Smith had 255 passing yards and two TD’s for the Redskins last week. Adrian Peterson had 96 yards rushing and overall the unit posted 182 on the ground. Washington looked sharp defensively in holding Arizona to just 213 total yards, but the unit clearly faces a much stiffer test against Luck, Ty Hilton and company.

I think the Colts’ more competent passing game brings Washington’s defensive numbers back down to Earth. Indianapolis played well enough to win last week, but shot itself in the foot with costly turnovers and penalties.

Look for a less rusty Luck to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Play on the Colts.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).

Divisional match-ups are always the most important in the NFL and for the most part, it almost always means more to the home side.

And there’s no question that that’s the case today, as Carolina comes in at 1-0, while Atlanta is 0-1.

The Panthers came out on top of the Cowboys 16-8 last week, forcing Dallas to go 0 for 5 on third down in the first half. 

The Dallas offense though is still trying to find itself, while the Atlanta offense is a well-oiled machine. And that machine mis-fired in the Week 1 loss at Philadelphia, as there were three trips inside the red zone which resulted in zero points. QB Matt Ryan was 21 of 43 for 251 yards, no TD’s and one INT. 

I’ll point out though that Carolina is just 2-4 ATS in its last six “dome” games and only 4-9 ATS in its last 13 against the division, while Atlanta is 12-9 ATS in its last 21 dome games and 7-5 ATS in its last 12 against divisional foes.

I look for the “hungrier” team to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oakland Raiders (10:20 EST).

Self-proclaimed Quarterback Whisperer Jon Gruden is back in Oakland, and Job One will be figuring out what’s going on with franchise signal-caller Derek Carr. Last season Carr’s numbers dropped from 2016 levels in every important category, so a good start is imperative to stop the bleeding that helped produce a 6-10 record after going 12-4 the year before. Expect Gruden’s West Coast offense to squeeze every last drop of blood out of power runner Marshawn Lynch in what may be his final season. Should be interesting in this Monday Night opener when Carr and Gruden go up against a Rams defense that includes three new Pro Bowlers – cornerback Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, and defensive lineman/provocateur Ndamukong Suh. The Rams came out of nowhere in winning the NFC West last season at 11-5, and should be in the driver’s seat again this year behind emerging third-year QB Jared Goff as the Seahawks and Cardinals don’t appear to have made strides and the 49ers will be under intense pressure to keep things going after last season’s 5-0 finish. Look for Oakland to cover the 3 here in the Raiders’ second-to-last season before the franchise moves to Las Vegas.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Chicago Bears (8:20 EST).

This is the NFL’s oldest rivalry and I’m expecting a much closer than expected battle between these long-time foes.

Note that this is a double-revenge game for the Bears after Green Bay took both games last year.

QB Mitchell Trubisky has many new weapons this year for the Bears, including Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Trey Burton and Taylor Gabriel. 

On the other side of the field, as Aaron Rodgers goes, so go the Packers. Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6 last year and the Packers season went down the toilet shortly after. 

Note that the Pack enter the 2018/18 campaign without RB Aaron Jones, who is suspended for the first two games. 

Ultimately though I think Rodgers is an amazing talent, but I’m just not convinced about the team around him. The Bears have a question mark at QB for the most part, but that’s nothing new, as they’ve had to deal with that issue for several years now. Chicago though has gotten better across its lines and I think it can keep this one competitive late. 

No upset, but a much closer than expected “nail-biter.” Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* BLOWOUT is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST).

Note that this is a rematch of the 2014 Super Bowl.

The Seahawks were long seen as strictly a “home team,” but last year they went 5-3 on the road and 9-7 overall. 

Seattle QB Russell Wilson is a difference maker though and I think he’ll keep his team competitive in this one as well. Last year Wilson had 3,983 passing yards and 34 TD’s. He also led the Hawks rushing with 586 yards and three more scores. 

The Hawks’ offense got better by drafting Rashaad Penny from San Diego State. The defense finished 11the last year and it has many new faces this season. Still. the Hawks are expected to be competitive on that side of the ball as well.

The Broncos’ defense was poor last year too though, allowing 290 yards per game. Note that Denver was just 4-4 at home last year and 5-11 overall. The Broncos were also just 1-3 against NFC teams. 

Is Case Keenum the answer for Denver under center? Last year he had 3,547 yards and a 22/7 TD/INT for the Vikes, but one has to wonder how much gas is left in the tank, especially in the the thin air of Mile High.

I’ll point out as well that Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six on the road, while Denver is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home.

While the outright upset isn’t out of the question, I’m going to grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST).

The Cleveland Browns may have been the most talked about team in the NFL over the offseason. 

When a team finishes 0-16 there's nowhere to go but up. However, realistically speaking, it will be quite an accomplishment for the 2018 Cleveland Browns to avoid a last place finish in the AFC North for an EIGHTH consecutive season. Cleveland head coach Hue Jackson is 1-31 SU in his two seasons with Cleveland, going  7-24-1 ATS (22.6%). Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin doesn't have a losing season on his head coaching resume in his 11 years. 

Bottom line is this. The last time the Browns won their Week 1 opener was back in 2004 when they beat the Ravens 20-3. The Browns welcome Pittsburgh to Cleveland on Sep 9 on a 13-game Week 1 losing streak, going just 3-10 ATS (average loss being 11.6 PPG) since that 2004 Week 1 win. The fact that the Steelers are 23-3 SU vs the Browns the last 13 seasons means I will not be too concerned about laying less than a TD, even on the road. 

NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is an 8* on the Pit Steelers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco 49ers (1:00 EST).

While I’m not predicting an outright upset, I wouldn’t be shocked if the 49ers did in fact win this one in Week 1.

San Francisco was just 6-10 last year, but it enters with high hopes with QB Jimmy Garoppolo under center. Over six games he’d post 1,560 yards and a 7/5 TD/INT. 

Garoppolo will be keying on Marquise Goodwin, who finished with 962 receiving yards last season. The 49ers averaged 20.7 points last year, but they’e expected to take a big step forward with Pierre Garcon and Trent Taylor as other offensive standouts. 

The defense allowed 23.9 points and it should only be better with the addition of CB Richard Sherman. 

The Vikes signed Kirk Cousins in the off-season and he’ll have plenty of targets to utilize, including Stefan Diggs, Adam Theielen and Kyle Rudolph.

The Vikes defense allowed just 15.8 PPG last year and the unit will be a strength again this season. 

San Francisco has nothing to lose though and it won’t simply roll over. The Vikes’ were a dominant team in 2017, but I think that regression could come in 2018. Even with Cousins. 

I’m banking on this one being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and as such, I’m going to grab the points. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Super Bowl Las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 6:30 ET.

Nearly two decades of NFL dominance will be on display when the Patriots play in their 8th Super Bowl this coming Sunday. And when the confetti falls sometime around 10 p.m. Eastern time at US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Roger Goodell will once again trudge to the makeshift platform on the 50 yard line and hand another trophy to Robert Kraft, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

An entire generation of football fans has known the NFL only when it has been dominated by the New England Patriots. Many will groan as the Patriots march to their 6th championship, wondering how a dynasty is possible in a league where salaries are capped and the draft rewards the worst teams.

The Eagles are a nice team. They seemingly have the Giants-like type of defense that twice defeated Brady – an attacking four-man front matched with solid corners. They have a feel-good story of backup QB Nick Foles coming off the best game of his life in the NFC Championship Game and Foles will be going against a Pats defense that gives up a lot of yards. They also have an effective running game that includes LeGarrette Blount, who will never have to pay for another drink in Philly if he can defeat NE one year after helping the Pats win the Super Bowl.

But while the pieces are there for Philadelphia, it won’t be enough. Just like it wasn’t enough in 2005, when the Eagles came up just short against the Pats in the 39th Super Bowl. New England has too much experience, too much preparation and too much focus.

How’s this for a stat? Next Sunday will be the Patriots’ 8th Super Bowl of the decade and they have not scored a single point in the first quarter of any of them? Does it matter in the slightest if the Patriots fall behind next Sunday? Ask the Falcons if you don’t know the answer.

Barring a disabling injury to the oldest player on the field tomorrow, the Patriots will win this one – and cover the 5-point spread while doing it. They have the best coach and the best quarterback and in a game where the talent gap is often measured in millimeters, most of the time that’s enough.

Quite simply, the Patriots know how to win these games and unlike the Eagles they will be prepared for every possible situation. And while they would never admit it even under torture, they probably already know what they’re going to say when Goodell once again forces a smile and hands them the Lombardi Trophy. Play on New England.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on the Minnesota Vikings (6:40 EST).

The 14-3 Minnesota Vikings are in Philadelphia to take on the 14-3 Eagles in the NFC Conference Championship on Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive “shootout” written all over it.

These are a couple of the league’s best defensive clubs, but I think this one will comfortably sneak over this lower-number once it’s all said and done.

Minnesota comes in off a 29-24 home win over New Orleans on a last second TD, while Philadelphia got the better of Atlanta 15-10 last Saturday. 

The Vikes managed the big win last week, but their vaunted defense looked pretty horrible in allowing 24 second half points. In the end Minnesota allowed 358 yards. 

Minnesota QB Case Keenum had 318 yards, one TD and one INT last week, while Stefon Diggs would go on to catch the 61 yard TD reception as time ran off the clock. 

The Vikings come into the Conference Championship game averaging 23.9 PPG, while conceding 15.8. 

Nick Foles is under center for the home side after starter Carson Wentz was lost to injury late in the regular season. Foles was an efficient 23 of 30 for 246 yards, no TD’s and no INT’s last week. 

The Eagles average 28.6 PPG, while conceding 18.4. Jay Ajayi had 54 yards on 15 carries last Saturday. Philadelphia looked sharp defensively, but I think it’ll have its hands full with Minnesota’s balanced attack.

I’ll point out as well that the Vikings have excelled in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in their last four after scoring 29 or more points in their previous outing, while conversely this has been one area in which the Eagles have struggled in, going just 1-2 ATS in their last three after holding their previous opponent to ten points or less.

I look for the Vikes to take this one back home and to be the first team in history to host a Super Bowl. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the New England Patriots (3:05 EST).

The 11-6 Jacksonville Jaguars are in New England to take on the 14-3 Patriots and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Jacksonville comes into this one completely “gassed” in my opinion after its epic 45-42 road win in Pittsburgh on Sunday. 

New England will look to take advantage after it annihilated Tennessee 35-14 last Saturday. 

The Jaguars average 26.1 PPG and they concede just 16.8. Jacksonville is No. 1 against the pass, but clearly the unit faces its stiffest test of the year in frigid New England and up against the NFL’s greatest passer of all time (arguably anyways.)

Leonard Fournette had a big day last week, posting 109 rushing yards, while Blake Bortles had 214 passing yards and one TD.

The Pats average 26.8 PPG and they concede just 18.5. Tom Brady had 337 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s last week. Brady owns a 66/31 TD/INT in 36 career playoff games.  

I’ll point out that Jacksonville is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 30 or more points in its previous game, while New England is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 following a straight-up victory over more than 14 points.

The Jags come in off a horrific defensive performance against a veteran QB, which clearly doesn’t bode well having to face Brady on his own field. 

As mentioned off the top, I think the Jaguars come in “flat footed” after last week’s “marathon,” while I expect it to just be “just another day at the office” for Brady and company.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Minnesota Vikings (4:40 EST).

New Orleans comes in off a thrilling 31-26 home win over Carolina in the Wildcard round, while Minnesota earned a first round bye after posting a 13-3 regular season record. 

Note that when these teams played in Week 1, it was the Vikes that easily took care of business 29-19. Saints’ QB Drew Brees had 291 yards and one TD in that one. 

Brees had 376 passing yards, two TD’s and zero INT’s last week. WR Michael Thomas had 131 yards, but was held to just five catches for 45 yards in the Week 1 loss to Minnesota. 

New Orleans looked very one-dimensional as well last week, posting just 41 yards rushing, including just 23 from rookie Alvin Kamara. 

The Saints comes into this one averaging 28 PPG and conceding 20.4. 

Minnesota averages 23.9 PPG and concedes a NFL best 15.8. In fact over their final three regular season games the Vikes allowed just 17 combined points. QB Case Keenum sports an elite 22/7 TD/INT and posted ten TD’s over his final six games. 

The Vikes run game played a key part in the team’s success as well as it finished seventh in the NFL on the ground. Keep your eyes on the duo of Latavius Murry and Jerick McKinnon. 

I’ll point out as well that New Orleans is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU victory, while Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six home playoff games. 

The Vikes got the job done all year with their smothering defensive plays (ranked second both against the pass and run) and I ultimately believe they’ll ride the unit to another solid victory in front of the home town crowd and with the extra week off to prepare.

The Saints have had a great year, but the story ends tonight in this tough atmosphere.

Lay the points, play on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Jacksonville Jaguars (1:05 EST).

Jacksonville looks to parlay its 10-3 home win over the Bills into another victory on the road in Pittsburgh in the divisional round. Pittsburgh enters off a bye after finishing with a 13-3 record.

Note that when these teams met in Week 5 it was Jacksonville which posted the 30-9 road win, as RB Leonard Fournette had 86 yards, while Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for 312 yards and five INT’s. 

Jacksonville comes into this one averaging 26.1 PPG, while conceding 15.9 (23 INT’s on the year.) Blake Bortles finished with a 22/13 TD/INT, while Fournette had 1,096 rushing yards. 

The defense looked particularly tough last week, holding the Bills to just 263 total yards, including just 133 passing.

Pittsburgh enters averaging 25.4 PPG, while conceding 19.2. Roethlisberger survived the five INT game and went on to post a 28/14 TD/INT ratio. RB Le’Veon Bell posted 1,291 rushing yards once it was all said and done.

I’ll point out though that Jacksonville is interestingly 12-5 ATS in its last 17 in this series, while Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last five following a SU victory.

The Jags allow just 169.9 passing yards per game and I look for them to contain Roethlisberger in this one. 

Note as well that Bell had just 47 yards on 15 carries against Jacksonville in Week 5.

While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to a comfortable cover. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Oddsmakers Error is on the Philadelphia Eagles (4:35 EST).

The Falcons come in off a big 26-13 road victory against the Rams and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here.

Philadelphia was 13-3 in the regular season, which was good enough to earn a first round bye.

Note that these teams didn’t play this year, but they did last season and the Eagles pulled away for the comfortable 24-15 victory. 

Atlanta comes in averaging 22.3 PPG, led by the eighth ranked passing attack. The Falcons have been decent defensively this year as well, allowing only 19.3 PPG (ranked eighth overall.) QB Matt Ryan was an unspectacular 218 yards, one TD and no turnovers last week, while WR Julio Jones was an offensive bright spot with 94 receiving yards.

Philadelphia averages 28.6 PPG and it concedes 18.4. Carson Wentz went down with injury late in the season and backup QB Nick Foles has filled in admirably to this point by posting 537 passing yards and a 5/2 TD/INT. 

Foles has played in the playoffs as well, back in 2013 for Philadelphia and he threw two TD’s and zero picks. Two other offensive players to keep your eyes on today are RB’s LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi. 

I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven off a loss against a division rival, while Atlanta is just 2-3 ATS this season after two or more consecutive victories. 

Winning and covering on the road is hard enough in the regular season and it’s even more difficult for a team when asked to do it on back-to-back weeks. 

Now throw in the fact that it’s the playoffs and I think that all the pressure is indeed on the visitors today.

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Eagles.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MOTNH is on the Carolina Panthers (4:30 EST).

The 11-5 Carolina Panthers get ready to battle the 11-5 New Orleans Saints in the final NFC Wildcard Game and while I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, as I expect this one to come right down to the wire. 

It’s difficult to beat a team three times in one season. New Orleans is a “good” team, but I don’t think it’s a great team.

The Panthers do indeed play with double revenge after dropping the first matchup 34-13 and the second one 31-21. 

Carolina averages 22.7 PPG and concedes 20.4. Cam Newton finished with a 22/16 TD/INT ratio this season, while also adding 754 rushing yards. Carolina features the fourth ranked run game, with Jon Stewart and Christian McCaffrey leading the charge. 

The Saints average 28 PPG and concede 20.4. QB Drew Brees finished with a 23/8 TD/INT. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are also a deadly one-two punch on the ground. 

I’ll point out though that Carolina has excelled in this spot for bettors all year, going 2-0 ATS off a loss against a division rival and 5-2 ATS as an underdog, while the Saints are just 2-3 ATS this season off a divisional contest.

As mentioned off the top, it’s hard enough to beat a team twice in the same season, let alone three times. Only truly great teams can usually accomplish a feat like that. I’m not convinced that the Saints are a great team.

Grab the points, play on Carolina.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Rams (8:15 EST).

The 10-6 Atlanta Falcons get ready to battle the 11-5 LA Rams on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

ATL needed a 22-12 win in Week 17 to notch its playoff berth this year. LA lost its regular season finale 34-13 to the surging San Francisco 49ers, but it had already secured home field in the Wildcard by winning the NFC West earlier.

Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan wasn’t his usual productive self this year, finishing with a 20/12 TD/INT. WR Julio Jones had 1,444 receiving yards on 88 catches. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman form a difficult duo to stop on the ground.

Note that ATL averages just 22.1 PPG (15th), while conceding 19.7 (8th.)

LA averages 29.9 PPG (1st) and concedes just 20.6 (12th.) QB Jared Goff had a huge year with a sharp 28/7 TD/INT. RB Todd Gurley had 1,305 rushing yards with 13 TD’s and 788 receiving yards as well. 

Additionally I’ll point out that this is in fact a spot in which the Falcons have struggled in this year for bettors, going just 2-6 ATS on the road and only 4-5 ATS against teams with winning records, while LA has excelled in this position by going 3-1 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and 5-3 ATS against teams with winning records.

LA has a “second gear” which I have a hard time seeing the Falcons keeping up too on the road in this hostile environment. I think Goff puts on a show and Gurley delivers the knock out blow down the stretch. 

Lay the points with confidence, play on the Rams.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Wild Card Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Chiefs at 4:35 ET.

The 9-7 Tennessee Titans get ready to battle the 10-6 KC Chiefs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Tennessee beat the Jaguars 15-10 last week to finish with the fifth seed in the AFC, while Kansas City got the better of Denver 27-24 in its finale, a victory which clinched the AFC West.

Note that this is a bit of a “revenge” game for the Chiefs, as the Titans beat them 19-17 in their lone matchup last year.

Tennessee averages 20.9 PPG (19th) and it concedes 22.2 (17th). The victory in Week 17 snapped a three-game slide. 

Clearly Bills fans are the most excited right now, but Titans fans aren’t far behind as the team hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2008. QB Marcus Mariota finished with a poor 13/15 TD/INT this year though. 

Titans’ RB Derrick Henry will be leaned upon heavily here, as DeMarco Murray sat out last week and he’s also questionable for this one (if he does play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity.)

KC averages 25.9 PPG and concedes 21.2. QB Alex Smith finished with 4,042 passing yards and a sharp 26/5 TD/INT ratio. RB Kareem Hunt finished with 1,327 rushing yards and 455 receiving yards. WR Tyreek Hill had 1,183 receiving yards and seven TD’s this season. 

The Chiefs come in on top form, having won four straight.

I’ll point out as well that Tennessee is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year, while KC is 6-2 ATS at home.

The Titans backed their way into the postseason, while the Chiefs come in as division winners. I expect Kansas City to take advantage of home field and to easily pull away down the stretch.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 17 Las Vegas Insider is on the Atl Falcons at 4:25 ET.

Carolina has clinched a playoff spot by beating Tampa Bay last weekend. The Falcons are going to need to win this game for a chance at the playoffs after falling 23-13 to the red hot Saints last weekend.

ATL QB Matt Ryan was 22 of 36 for 288 yards in the setback: “I think we stay on schedule,” Ryan assessed earlier in the week. “We can’t put ourselves behind the chains with self-inflicted wounds. We can’t do that. And then when we get our chances to make plays, we’ve got to make the plays. It’s not that complicated. When we get our opportunities, we’ve got to make plays. Again, we believe we’re going to do that. We’re going to have a great week of preparation.”

Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had 160 yards passing and 52 rushing last week. I’ll point out thought that Carolina is just 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 after allowing more than 350 total yards in its previous outing, while Atlanta is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game.

The “hungrier” team is the correct call here. Newton and company have done their job and I think they’ll “fold up their tents” early against this determined home side.

Lay the points, play on the Falcons.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST).

San Francisco has won four straight and it’s going to be eager to score another upset on the road here against a Rams team which just beat Tennessee 27-23 on the road on Christmas Eve. 

Note that San Fran is still just 21st in the league in scoring offense by averaging only 19.8 PPG, while ranked 26th in scoring defense by conceding 24.7 per contest. Jimmy Garoppolo has been fantastic in the early going, but note that the 49ers were actually out gained 472-369 in last week’s big 44-33 win at home over the Jaguars.

LA ranks first in scoring with 30.9 PPG, while ranked eighth on the defensive side by conceding just 19.7. Goaltender Jared Goff has a 28/7 TD/INT. Last week the Rams held a decisive 402-366 advantage in total offense in their victory over the Titans. 

One player to keep your eyes on today is LA RB Todd Gurley II, who has 1,305 yards rushing and 13 TD’s, as well as 788 receiving yards and six more major scores. 

Additionally I’ll point out that San Francisco is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while LA is 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss.

For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Bengals (4:25 EST).

The 6-9 Cincinnati Bengals are in Baltimore to take on the 9-6 Ravens in Week 17 and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

Note that this is a revenge game for Cincinnati after Baltimore shut it out 20-0 at home back on September 10th. 

The Bengals come in off a confidence boosting 26-17 home win over Detroit and while Cincinnati won’t be performing in the off-season, it’ll definitely be looking to avenge the earlier loss and try to play spoiler to the still playoff hopeful Ravens.

Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has a 22/12 TD/INT, while WR AJ Green has 1,061 receiving yards and eight TD catches this year. 

Baltimore comes in off a 23-16 home win over the Colts. QB Joe Flacco had 237 yards and two TD’s. RB Alex Collins had 51 yards on 18 carries. 

I’ll point out thought that the Bengals have done well in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to revenge a shutout loss against an opponent, while Baltimore is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to 17 points or less.

Note that the underdog is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in this series. 

The Ravens barely got by the Colts last weekend, which doesn’t bode well in facing this vastly more talented and revenge minded Bengals team in my opinion. Outright victory? Very possible. In fact, I’ll also recommend “sprinkling” a little on the money line if you can.

Play on the Bengals.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST).

Chicago enters its final game of the year having won two of its last three, most recently downing the Browns 20-3 at home on X-Mas Eve. 

Minnesota comes in having won ten of its last 11, most recently a 16-0 victory on the road against Green Bay. Note that Chicago plays with revenge after falling 20-17 at home to Vikes back on October 9th. 

Lets face it, the Bears are pretty terrible. Terrible offensively that is, averaging just 16.9 PPG. Rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky has been kept under a tight leash all year though, but he has shown flashes of extreme potential at times. 

Chicago’s defense has been pretty good this season. Last week the unit forced three turnovers, two of which came in the red zone. In all the Bears allows just 19.8 PPG, ranked tenth.

Minnesota averages 23.9 PPG, while allowing only 16.1. The Vikes will clinch a first round bye with a win today, or a Carolina loss. 

I think it’s interesting to note though that the Vikes got the win in Green Bay last week despite being out gained 239-236. 

Chicago has played better of late and it would love nothing more than to play spoiler here. Note that the Bears are 6-5 ATS as an underdog this season.

Minnesota has been unbelievable up to this point, but in my opinion all signs point to a bit of a letdown in its regular season finale. While I’ll stop short in actually calling for the outright upset, everything definitely points to a much tighter affair than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:35 EST).

Dallas has won three straight, but I think it’s ripe for a letdown here. Seattle isn’t out of the playoff picture either, but it comes in hungry off a humbling loss at home at the hands of the Rams.

In last week’s 42-7 loss to LA, QB Russell Wilson was 14 of 30 for 142 yards and one TD in garbage time. Note the week before the Hawks’ scored a big victory over Philadelphia and the team still seemed focused on that victory. 

Dallas held on for a 20-17 win over Oakland on SNF last week. The Cowboys finished with just 330 total yards and were only 2-of-10 on third down. QB Dak Prescott had 212 yards passing and two INT’s. 

I’ll point out that Seattle is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 following a SU loss, while Dallas is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams with a winning record. 

I believe this one will be decided by whichever team has the ball in its hands last and as such, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 16 Las Vegas Insider is on the SF 49ers at 4:05 ET.

Jacksonville comes in off a 45-7 win over Houston to clinch its division and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. 

The 49ers won’t be playing in the postseason, but they’ve quietly been dominating with three straight wins and I expect that momentum to get carried over here in this late season non-conference matchup.

The Jags posted 464 yards, while holding the Texans to just 186 total yards last week. Note though that Jacksonville was just 3-for-10 on third down. QB Blake Bortles was strong with 326 yards and three TD’s. 

San Francisco is 3-0 with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. Last week Garoppolo was 36 for 38 and so far he has been responsible for 127 points posted by himself for his new team.

I’ll point out as well that Jacksonville is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games (including just 1-2 ATS this season), while San Francisco is 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog.

It’s a classic letdown/trap spot for the Jags and I look for the home side to take advantage. Grab the points, play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Tennessee Titans (1:00 EST).

The 10-4 LA Rams are in Tennessee to take on the 8-6 Titans and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. 

LA is on the cusp of clinching the NFC West after last week’s 42-7 win over the Seahawks, while Tennessee fell 25-23 at San Francisco last Sunday. 

Rams’ QB Jared Goff was 14 of 21 for 120 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week, while RB Todd Gurley had 152 rushing yards on 21 carries, to go along with three major scores. 

Perhaps what was even more impressive than the offense, was LA’s defense. which limited Seattle to just 11 first downs and 149 total yards. 

Tennessee though will be desperate here after letting a late lead slip away in last week’s loss to the lowly 49ers. QB Marcus Mariota was 23 of 33 for 241 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. RB DeMarco Murray had 59 yards.

The Titans gave up 414 total yards last week, but I think they’ll bounce back with a much better effort here. Tennessee will need some luck to win the division, but it won’t be rolling over and quitting and still needs to secure a Wild card.

Note that the Rams are just 1-3 ATS in their last four after holding their previous opponent to a TD or less, while Tennessee is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 non-conference contests.

I think LA takes the foot off the gas here and as mentioned off the top, I look for the hungry Titans to step up and take advantage. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).

The 4-10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in Carolina to take on the 10-4 Panthers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Bucs come in off a crushing 24-21 loss to Atlanta on Monday night, a setback which officially ends their playoff hopes. Carolina enters off a 31-24 home win over Green Bay last week.

When these teams met in Week 8, it was Carolina that scored the relatively simple 17-3 victory. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had 154 yards and a TD in that one, while Bucs’ QB Jameis Winston had 210 passing yards, no TD’s and two INT’s. 

Tampa owns the league’s worst pass defense, which clearly doesn’t bode well against Newton and company. The Panthers have also been tough overall defensively, allowing just 307.9 YPG, ranked fifth in the league. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Tampa is just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight on the road, while Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four in front of the home town crowd.

Carolina has averaged 32 points over its last five games and I anticipate it having no issues at all moving the ball today against this dejected Bucs defense. 

Lay the points with confidence, play on Carolina.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 15 Las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.

The 10-3 New England Patriots are in Pittsburgh to take on the 11-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the defending champs.

After a loss to Miami last week, New England sits at 10-3 and one game back in the AFC, while Pittsburgh comes in having won eight straight, most recently coming from behind to knock off the Ravens at home in a thriller.

I think it’s important to point out though that the Pats haven’t lost back-to-back games since Week 12 and 13 of the 2015 campaign.

Clearly New England was collectively caught “looking ahead” to this much more important game last week: “It was a bad night,” Brady assessed. “We’ve had a lot of good nights this year. This was a bad night.”

I simply feel that Pittsburgh runs out of gas here. It’s win streak is extremely impressive and it does have the benefit of playing at home, but last week’s 39-38 Sunday night victory over Baltimore was an emotionally draining one and I believe the team comes in “hung over” still from that monumental win.

Remember, in January of 2017, New England throttled the Steelers 36-17 in the AFC title game. 

In conclusion, I guess we shouldn't have been too surprised by the Dolphins' win last Sunday. Sure, the Pats won 35-14 last season in Miami but the Dolphins had won iin New England' s three previous visits, including 2015 when the loss cost the Pats the AFC's No. 1 seed. What was shocking about last Sunday's result was Brady completing just 24 of 43 for 223 with one TD and two INTs (note: he entered the game with just four INTs on 438 attempts). What's more, the Pats were 0 of 11 on third down tries! 

Really think Brady will play that poorly again? Especially with so much on the line vs. Pittsburgh and Big Ben?

A check of the record book reveals that New England is 10-3 against the Steelers during the Belichick era, including 3-0 in the playoffs. 

What's more, the Pats are 54-18 SU and 48-24 ATS off a loss since 2000!

I’m jumping on the defending champs in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:05 EST).

Divisional games are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home side. 

LA had its two game win streak snapped in a 43-35 defeat to Philadelphia at home last Sunday, while Seattle also had its two game win streak broken in a 30-24 setback at Jacksonville. 

If recent history is any precedence though, then the Hawks have to be liking their chances this afternoon, because when these teams met back on October 7th in LA, it was Seattle that pulled away for the 16-10 victory. 

LA ranks second in the league in scoring with 30.5 PPG, while ranked 12th on the defensive side by conceding 20.4. QB Jared Goff has 3,383 yards, 22 TD’s and six INT’s. RB Todd Gurley has 1,035 rushing yards and ten TD’s. 

Seattle averages 24.2 PPG, while conceding 19.4. QB Russell Wilson has 3,537 yards, 29 TD’s and 11 INT’s. He also has a team high 482 rushing yards, plus three more scores on the ground. WR Doug Baldwin has 860 receiving yards and five TD’s. 

I’ll point out though that LA is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 40 points or more in its previous contest, while Seattle is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 following a straight up loss.

Seattle’s defense isn’t what it used to be, but it’s still very formidable, among the league leaders in almost every category on that side of the ball. The Rams have struggled to move the ball against the league’s better defenses and this will ceratinly be a difficult atmosphere to play in as well.

When you add it all up, all signs point to a crucial victory for the hungry Seahawks. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST).

The 7-6 Baltimore Ravens are at Cleveland to take on the 0-13 Browns and for a number of different reasons, i think this one favors the home side.

The pressure is on Baltimore this weekend after a crushing 39-38 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday. Cleveland can empathize, as it blew a late two-touchdown lead late in the fourth quarter to Green Bay last week, falling 27-21 in OT. Note that this is a revenge game for the Browns after the Ravens took the first one 24-10 back on September 17th. 

Last week Baltimore gave up 438 passing yards to the Steelers. RB Alex Collins was a bright spot with 120 rushing yards. QB Joe Flacco was 20 of 35 for 269 yards, two TD’s and a pick. The Ravens average just 298.1 YPG (27th), while conceding 329.2.

Browns’ QB DeShone Kizer had 214 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s in last week’s loss to the Packers. RB Isaiah Crowell has been solid this year with 716 yards and four TD’s. WR Josh Gordon has created quite the stir since his return and in two games he so far has 154 yards on seven catches with one TD.

Cleveland averages 311.4 YPG and concedes 328.3. 

It’s interesting to note though that Baltimore is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after allowing 38 points or more in its previous contest, while Cleveland is 2-1 ATS in its last three trying to revenge a loss against an opponent.

While I do indeed feel that the conditions are right for an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST).

Philadelphia comes to The Big Apple off a big 43-35 win over the Rams, while New York enters off a 30-10 loss to the Cowboys. Note that when these teams played earlier in the year, it was the Eagles that hung on for the hard-fought 27-24 victory.

The Eagles are ranked third in the league in total offense with 390.5 YPG, but No. 1 in scoring offense with 31.1 PPG. Defensively Philadelphia has also been sharp, ranked fourth overall by allowing 294.2 YPG.

This is a prime letdown spot for Philadlephia if I’ve ever seen it. Last week’s epic win over the Rams clinched the team the NFC East title. But the victory came at a massive cost, as starting QB Carson Wentz was lost to injury for the rest of the season. Backup Nick Foles has plenty of weapons to work with, but he hasn’t seen any serious action since 2013/14. Jay Ajayi looked decent last week, but the defense looked horrible.

New York averages just 15.3 PPG, while conceding 24.7, ranked 26th. In last weeks loss QB Eli Manning was 31 of 46 for 227 yards, a TD and three INT’s. 

Manning was playing from behind from the get-go and with nothing to lose this weekend either, we can expect the veteran to once again “air it out.” 

Manning is playing for pride this weekend after his recent benching. Certainly he can’t be happy with his performance last weekend. 

The Eagles are an awesome team, but all of the above external factors working against them here will be too much for Foles to overcome in my opinion.

While I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the desperate Giants can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:25 EST).

The winner of this contest will take first place in the division. LA enters off a 30-13 home win over Washington, while KC enters off a 26-15 win over Oakland.

If recent history is any precedence, then the Chiefs have to be loving their chances today, because when these teams met earlier in the year, it was KC that pulled away for the comfortable 24-10 victory.

The Chargers come into this one ranked fourth in the league in total offense with 372.7 per game, while ranked 12th in total yards allowed with 325.1 YPG conceded.

Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers was 18 of 31 last week for 319 yards and two TD’s. 

KC averages 371.3 YPG and concedes 373.4 per contest. Last week QB Alex Smith was 20 of 34 for 268 yards. 

I’ll point out though that LA is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after posting more than 350 total yards in its previous game, while KC is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 after psoting more than 150 rushing yards in its previous outing.

The Chiefs won’t be taking anything for granted here after breaking a four-game slide in their last outing. 

The Chargers have been on a roll, but this is a tough environment at this time of year and I think Rivers and company finally have a letdown.

Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Denver Broncos (8:25 EST).

The 4-9 Denver Broncos are in Indianapolis to take on the 3-10 Colts and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

The Broncos got off the schneid last week, ending an eight-game losing streak with a 23-0 win over the Jets on Sunday.

The Colts come in with zero momentum, having lost four straight, most recently a 13-7 loss in snowy Buffalo this past weekend.

When these teams played last year it was Denver that scored the 34-20 win and suffice it to say, I expect a similar result in this one once it’s all said and done. 

Last week Denver shutout the Jets and knocked out New York’s starting QB Josh McCown. Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian had 200 yards, a TD and no picks. Overall the Broncos ranks 22nd in total offense with 312.1 YPG, while ranked first in total defense, allowing 280.5 YPG. 

Last week Colts’ RB Frank Gore had 130 yards on 36 carries. QB Jacoby Brissett so far has 11 TD’s and seven picks on the year. Indianpolis though ranks 30th in total offense this season, averaging just 290.7 YPG, while ranked 29th on the defensive side by conceding 375.3 per contest.

Additionally I’ll point out that Devner is 3-1 ATS in its last four “Thursday” night games (playing on the short week), while Indianapolis is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the same position.

I think the Broncos’ tough defensive unit proves to be the difference maker today. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New England Patriots (8:30 EST).

The 10-2 New England Patriots are in Miami to take on the 5-7 Dolphins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

This is a big game for the Pats, who with a victory today would wrap up their ninth straight AFC East title. TE Rob Gronkowski is out, but I don’t think that’s going to slow down Tom Brady and company one bit. 

The Fish come in off a 35-9 home win over the lowly Broncos last week, but I think they suffer a predictable letdown here.

And if recent history is any precedence, then New England has to be liking its chances today, because when these teams met on November 26th, it was the Patriots that came away with the relatively simple 35-17 victory.

So far the Pats average 413.2 YPG, while allowing 375.7.

Last week Miami’ QB Jay Cutler had 235 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The Dolphins average just 292.6 YPG and concede 339.9. 

I’ll point out that New England is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 following an ATS victory, while Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight Monday night contests and just 1-5 ATS in its last six as the underdog in this series. 

I like New England and Brady to control this one on both sides of the ball and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory. Lay the points, play on the Patriots.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST).

LA has won six of its last seven, most recenlty coming off victories over the Saints and Cardinals. Philadelphia is 10-2, but it comes in off a tough setback in Seattle and suffice it to say, I think it’s primed for another letdown in Week 14. 

Philadelphia allows 17.9 PPG. But clearly the Eagles hit a wall last week and note that this is in fact a position in which they’ve struggled in mightily for bettors, going just 1-3 ATS in its last four following a SU loss.

RB Todd Gurley had 74 yards on 19 attempts for the Rams last week. QB Jared Goff had two TD strikes in the 32-16 win. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a winning home record, while LA is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 home games agianst teams with winning road records. 

I think the Eagles are running out of gas, while the Rams are just starting to hit their stride. 

Play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST).

The 8-4 Seattle Seahawks are in Jacksonville to take on the 8-4 Jaguars and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the visitors.

Seattle is still within striking distance of the division lead after beating Philadelphia 24-10 on Sunday. QB Russell Wilson had 227 yards and three TD’s. Note that Wilson is tied for second in the NFL with 26 TD’s and he also has 432 rushing yards on the year. 

The Seahawks will be confident as they come in having won four straight road games after opening season setbacks at Green Bay and Tennessee.

The Jags are tied with the Titans for the divison lead and they smashed the Colts 30-10 this past Sunday. QB Blake Bortles went for 309 yards and two TD’s. The Jacksonville defense posted four sacks and it now leads the league with 45 total. 

I’ll point out though that Seattle is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four on the road, while Jacksonville is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory. 

As good as Bortles has looked of late, I’m still giving the nod to Wilson in this matchup. And that’s the difference maker for me. While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 14 Las Vegas Insider is on the Car Panthers at 1;00 ET.

Carolina has questions marks with some of its key pieces on offense, but QB Cam Netwon will be under center. TE Greg Olson, RB Jonathan Stewart and WR Devin Funchess are all listed as day-to-day, but I still think that the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon.

The Vikes control the NFC North and come to town off eight straight victories. The Panthers look to get back on track as they saw their four-game win streak end in a loss to New Orleans last weekend.

Minnesota didn’t look overly impressive offensively in last week’s 14-9 win over Atlanta, but Case Keenum had 227 yards and two TD’s. 

In last week’s loss to the Saints, Newton had 183 yards, two TD’s and INT’s. 

Carolina though is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 30 points or more in its previous contest, while Minnesota is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to ten points or less.

In conclusion, Atlanta's 20-17 win Thursday night over New Orleans was great news for the Panthers. 

Carolina can now move back into a first-place tie with the 9-4 Saints in the NFC South with a win. The Falcons and Saints play again in Week 16, so the Panthers have a great chance to "make a move." 

This contest with the Vikings is the first of three straight home games, with the Packers (no Rodgers?) and the Bucs (just 4-8, currently), up next. The Vikings have done everything right and the team's D has been superb but remember, this is Minnesota's THIRD straight road game. The Vikings are a very good team but they are NOT a great team!

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST).

The 6-6 Green Bay Packers are in Cleveland to take on the 0-12 Browns and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

After losing five of six, the Packers came up with a win over Tampa Bay last weekend. 

Green Bay’s offensive line has given up 42 sacks this year, which doesn’t bode well for Packers’ backup QB Brett Hundley in my opinion. So far Hundley has five TD’s on 206 attempts to go along with eight iNT’s. 

Cleveland only averages 14.7 PPG, but it does possess a Top 10 defense in terms of yardage given up. WR Josh Gordon returned in last week’s loss and looked impressive. Duke Johnson Jr. is a decent RB. QB DeShone Kizer isn’t great, but he’s hungry. 

Green Bay’s win last week was encouraging, but the team faces an uphill battle with Aaron Rodgers still not at 100%. 

I do firmly believe this is Cleveland’s greatest chance this season to get off the schneid. While I obvoiusly wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. 

Play on Cleveland

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Atlanta Falcons (8:25 EST).

The 9-3 New Orleans Saints are in Atlanta to take on the 7-5 Falcons on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

A loss to division rival New Orleans this week would likely be too much for Atlanta to climb out of. The Falcons come in off a 14-9 loss to Minnesota. 

The Saints come in off a satisfying win over division rival Carolina at home and I think they have a letdown here against the now desperate Falcons.

New Orleans ranks second in total offense with an average of 408.6 YPG, while ranked 12th in total defense by allowing 330.1 YPG. 

Atlanta ranks eighth in YPG with 365.2, while ranked eighth on the defensive side by conceding 321. 

New Orleans has been fantastic in almost every single ATS statistical category there is this year, but note that it’s just 1-2 ATS in all games when the line is set between +3 and -3 (and just 2-6 ATS in its last eight in the same position), while Atlanta is a perfect 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog of three points or less and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog overall.

Division contests always mean the most and they almost always mean more to the home side. This has essentially become a “do or die” for Matt Ryan and company and I believe they answer the call at home on the short week. Play on the Falcons.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cincinnati Bengals (8:30 EST).

The Bengals season is for all intents and purposes on the line tonight and as such, we’re clearly not going to have to question the home sides overall effort this evening.

This is also a revenge game for Cincinnati after it dropped the first matchup with the Steelers 29-14 back on October 22nd. 

If the Bengals can pull off the upset, they’ll move back to .500 (6-6), with a very winnable game at home against the Browns on deck. This is a make or break part of the entire 2017/18 campaign for Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh on the other hand has won six straight, but had to hold on for dear life in last week’s 31-28 home win over the Aaron Rodger-less Packers. 

The Steelers’ defense is starting to show signs of fatigue and I think the unit has another letdown here against this revenge minded and improving Bengals offense. 

Additioanlly I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Cincinnati is 3-2 ATS as an underdog this season and 10-7 ATS in its last 17 against the division.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bengals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:30 ET.

Yes, the Eagles have won nine straight, own the NFL's best record at 10-1 and also its best point-differential at plus-160. However, are you aware that the Eagles have played just two teams which currently own a winning record? They lost to the Chiefs 27-20 back in Week 2 and note that KC is just 6-5, after having lost five of its last six. Then there is Philly's 28-23 win at Carolina in Week 6 and for sure, the Panthers are proving to be one the NFC's best teams at 8-3.

However, since that win at Carolina, the Eagles' last five wins have come over Washington, San Francisco, Denver, Dallas and Chicago. Only Washington and Dallas are competitive (both are 5-6) but note that Philly met Dallas without "Zeke" (0-3 without Elliott), LT Smith and LB Lee. As for the trio of the 49ers, Broncos (losers of seven straight) and the Bears, they own a combined record of 7-26 (.212).

It's true that Seattle's defense is not what it used to be and that the running game is highly suspect but Russell Wilson is carrying this offense. Let's mention that he is a remarkable 37-7 SU (.841) at home as a starting QB in the regular season and the Seahawks haven't been a home dog this big since Wilson took over the job under center in his rookie season of 2012. "Just for grins," I went back to Week 1 of the 2017 season and checked the power ratings of Seattle and Philadelphia. If these teams would have met in Week 1 at Seattle, the Seahawks would have been favored by eight points. That means we've had a two-TD swing (give or take)! You make the call!! No, let me.

Play on the Seahawks.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Cleveland Browns (4:05 EST).

The 0-11 Cleveland Browns are in LA to take on the 5-6 Chargers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

Cleveland comes to town off a 30-16 loss to Cincinnati last week, while the Chargers got by the Cowboys 26-6 on the road on Thanksgiving. 

The Browns only win came against the Chargers last season (20-17.) 

Last week Cleveland QB DeShone Kizer was 18 of 31 for 268 yards with no TD’s or INT’s. Kizer has for the most part struggled this year, but I’m expecting him to produce against the inconsistent Chargers’ secondary. RB Isaiah Crowell was a bright spot last week with 95 rushing yards on 16 carries. 

The Chargers looked great on the defensive side of the ball last week, holding the Cowboys to 247 total yards, including just 79 on the ground. That was of course without RB Ezekiel Elliot in the line-up. 

Dallas is a mess without Elliot, so I’m not reading too much into last weeks defensive performance by the Bolts. 

Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers was 27 of 33 for 434 yards and three TD’s in last week’s win. He’s been fantastic overall with a 20/7 TD/INT, but regression at some point does seem imminent in my opinion. 

Is the fact that Cleveland is 3-1 ATS its last four against the AFC West relevant in this situation? It doesn’t hurt (it’s also very interesting to note that LA is jsut 1-4 ATS in its last five against the AFC North.) 

Additionally I’ll point out that the Chargers are just 1-2 ATS in their last three after two or more consecutive wins. 

With Washington coming to town next weekend, I also believe that the home side gets caught “looking ahead.”

While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do like Kizer and the hungry Browns to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).

Minnesota has won seven in a row and I think it finally comes up short this weekend. The Vikes were most recently in action on Thanksgiving, taking care of business against Detroit. 

The Falcons come in on a three-game win streak, coming out on the right side of Dallas, Seattle and Tampa Bay. 

These teams are both on fire. The Vikes get the job done with an awesome defensive unit which leads the league in most categories. Case Keenum has emerged as an above par game manager. The run game and special teams are also strong, so when you add it all up you have a team which for the most part is pretty tough to matchup against.

The Falcons though have found their swagger. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are putting up impressive numbers (Jones had over 250 yards receiving last week). Atlanta also looked sharp defensively last week.

So where’s the value? 

I’ll point out that Minnesota is interestingly just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games played on a grass field, while Atlanta is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 following a SU win and interestingly, 4-1 ATS in its last five after scoring more than 30 points in its previous game.

I expect a war, but I think Ryan will in the end get the better of Keenum and I believe the Vikes’ defense finally “cracks.” Lay the points, play on the Falcons.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST).

The Bears look to stop a four-game slide on Sunday. Here comes the perfect opponent to get untracked against. San Francisco looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after it snapped a season-opening nine game skid with a win over the Giants, followed by an immediate return to mediocrity in a setback to the Seahawks this past Sunday. 

San Francisco will be turning to Jimmy Garoppolo moving forward. He entered in last week’s win after starter CJ Beathard went down with injury and in the end he managed a ten-yard TD strike to Louis Murphy on the final play. 

The Bears couldn’t get anything going in last week’s 31-3 loss to Philadelphia. Mitchell Trubisky struggled and so too did the ground game, producing just 65 yards. 

I’ll point out though that San Francisco has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five against the NFC, while Chicago is still 3-1-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss. 

The Bears’ run game will return to the norm here, previous to last week’s poor performance they’d held down the No. 5 rushing attack in the league. 

A tough spot for Garoppolo as well. I think Chicago’s defense and run game prove to be too much for the inconsistent visitors this afternoon. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry