My 10* "Granddaddy of the Them All' Rivalry G.O.Y. on the GB Packers at 4:25 ET.

The Bears/Packers rivalry is the NFL's oldest, as two of the NFL's "Originals' meet for the 202nd time. Green Bay leads the series 100-95-6 but I'll have more to say about that a little later. The 12-3 Packers can clinch a first-round bye and the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win or a tie against the Bears. The Packers can also get a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if the 11-4 Seattle Seahawks lose or tie against the San Francisco 49ers. As for Chicago, 'Da Bears can clinch an NFC playoff berth with a win but there also are two other pathways for the Bears to secure a postseason spot. They need 8-7 Arizona to lose at the 9-6 Los Angeles Rams OR, if the Bears and Cardinals each finish Sunday's games with tie scores. Wouldn't that be some 'Daily Double?' Green Bay is on a five-game winning streak and Chicago on a three-game run. More on those streaks in a little bit, as well.

The 37year-old Aaron Rodgers has put up MVP-caliber numbers, completing 70.3% for 4,059 passing yards with 44 TDs and only five INTs. He has a 119.4 QB rating, which leads the league and is the second-best of his HOF career (122.5 QB rating in 2011). RB Jones has 1,062 rushing yards (5.6 YPC / 8 TDs) plus 43 catches for two more TDs. WR Adams has missed two games but has 109 catches for 1.328 yards with 17 TDs plus TE Tonyan's 50 catches and 10 TDs is a big improvement from LY's starter, Jimmy Graham. This balanced offense leads the NFL in scoring 31.6 PPG.

Mitchell Trubisky has played a key role in the late-season turnaround, after he was benched for veteran Nick Foles during a Week 3 game against the Atlanta Falcons. He reclaimed his starting job in Week 12 and has posted a 99.3 passer rating since then with 1,243 passing yards, 10 TDs and four INTs. Montgomery has run for 1,001 yards (4.4 YPC and 7 TDs) plus has 45 catches with another two TDs. WR Robinson has exactly 100 catches for 1,213 yards with six TDs and TE Jimmy Graham (remember that name?), has bounced back with a strong season, catching 48 passes for eight TDs.

Neither defense is anything special, with Green Bay allowing 23.5 PPG and Chicago giving up 22.3. Let me deal with the two teams' streaks. Green Bay is 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS, although both ATS losses have come in games the Packers won by SEVEN and EIGHT points (would have covered both at this point spread. Much has been made of Trubisky's and Chicago's late run but the team's 3-0 SU & ATS streak has come over the Jags, losers of 14 straight, the Vikings, losers of three straight and SIX straight ATS and the 4-11 Texans, losers of FOUR in a row going 1-3 ATS with the lone ATS win coming by a half-point!

As for recent head-to-head matchups, the Packers routed the Bears 41-25 at Lambeau in Week 12, as Rodgers threw four TDs (Bears led 41-10 entering the fourth quarter. The oldest rivalry in the NFL has been a rather one-sided affair in recent years, with Green Bay winning 18 of 21 against Chicago counting the postseason. As for games in which Rodgers  has started, the Packers are 20-5 (again, including the playoffs). It's been rumored that Trubisky's future with the Bears is tied to Chicago beating Green Bay in this one. If that's true, it's time to "Hit the Road, Mitch!"

Good luck...Larry 

My 8* NFL Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Cowboys at 1:00 ET.

There are two things we are sure about in the NFC East and that is the division winner will finish with a losing record, making them the FIFTH team since the NFL-AFL merger to enter the playoffs with a losing record, and only the THIRD to do so during a 16-game season. However, we know that the defending champion Eagles are the ONLY team in the division with NOTHING to play for on Sunday! The 6-9 Cowboys and 5-10 Giants meet at MetLife Stadium and the victor will keep its division title hopes alive for at least a few more hours. Both teams need a victory by the Philadelphia Eagles over the visiting Washington Football Team on Sunday night to clinch the crown. As the Cowboys and Giants take the field Sunday afternoon, it's two teams headed in the opposite direction The Giants won FOUR in a row from Week 9-13, including that HUGE 17-12 upset at Seattle. However, the Giants are 0-3 SU and ATS since that win, as the offense has scored a total of just 26 points! Meanwhile, 'left for dead' at 3-9, the Cowboys enter with THREE straight wins (3-0 ATS).

It's been a "Year of Redemption" for veteran QB Andy Dalton, who has the Cowboys averaging 36.0 PPG in their winning streak, while completing 66.3% for an average of 257.0 YPG through the air with seven TDs and just one INT. Elliott missed a game for the first time in career in Week 15 but ran for 105 yards (just his second 100-yard game in 2020) last week. Dalton's has a terrific WR trio in Cooper (86 catches), Lamb (69) and Gallup (55), with all three having five TD grabs. TE Schultz has 56 catches and four TDs.

I'm not sure how the Giants' sad-sack offense can keep up with the Cowboys in this one and while Daniel Jones was a full participant in practice during the week, the second-year QB had just nine TD passes in 423 attempts this season. The Giants do not have a RB in the class of "Zeke" and their receiving corps has nowhere near the talent of Dallas' group.

The Cowboys’ 37-34 home victory over the Giants back in Week 5 was their SEVENTH consecutive win in the series, going 6-1 ATS with an average margin of victory of 12 points. What changes here? I say NOTHING. The Cowboys win and then get to root for the Eagles to beat Washington on SNF.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET.

The 10-4 Tennessee Titans visit the 11-3 Green Bay Packers for a SNF matchup of first-place teams that pit the NFL's first- and third-ranked scoring offenses. Tennessee leads the league at 31.1 PPG and Green Bay is 'FAR' behind at 31.0. The Titans are tied with Indianapolis atop the AFC South (but hold the tiebreaker) plus will know well before they take the field if the Colts won or lost at Pittsburgh. As for the Packers, they already know the Saints moved to 11-4 with their rout of the Vikings on Christmas (Packers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with New Orleans) plus will also know just before kickoff the result of the Rams/Seahawks contest. If the Rams win, Green Bay will clinch the NFC's No. 1 seed by beating the Titans.

The Titans made a run to the AFC championship game last season on the 'legs' of Derrick Henry and the "game management" skills of QB Ryan Tannehill. Henry's 'legs' remain as good as ever, as he leads the NFL with 1,679 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC with 15 TDs. What's been different on offense for Tennessee in 2020 has been the play of Tannehill. He's having a "career season," completing 66.5% for 3,482 yards with 31 TDs and just five INTs (QB rating is 110.4). The team's improved offense has made up for the Tennessee D allowing 25.8 PPG (up from 20.7 and 18.9 the previous two seasons) on 390.5 YPPG, which ranks 26th (about 45 YPG more than in 2019),

Green Bay's defense is allowing 24.2 PPG (14th) but just 337.7 YPG (8th). However, the Packers are counting on Aaron Rodgers and the offense to 'win the day!' Rodgers has completed 69.6% for 3,828 yards with 40 TDs and just four INTs, giving him an NFL-best QB rating of 118.0. It's just another 'ho-hum' season for the future Hall of Famer. WR Adams believes he ranks with the best in the business and may be right, with 98 catches for 15 TDs despite missing two games. TE Tonyan has 49 catches and 10 TDs. Aaron Jones is one of the league's better all-purpose backs, rushing for 968 yards on 5.4 YPC with 8 TDs plus catching 41 passes for another four TDs.

Since losing 34-17 at home to the Colts in Week 10, the Titans have won FOUR of five, averaging 37.4 PPG. The Titans and Packers have each committed a league-low NINE turnovers but the Packers haven't committed a turnover in their last FOUR games (Green Bay is 10-0 when it doesn't have a turnover!). The Packers are 13-2 SU at Lambeau field since the start of the 2019 season (7-1 LY / 6-1 TY) and REALLY want that No. 1 seed. "The Pack" can't control what Seattle does vs the Rams but they can "take care of business" here, in their final regular season game of 2020. That's the bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* is on the Dal Cowboys at 4:25 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC East at 9-7 in 2019, while the HUGELY disappointing Dallas Cowboys finished 8-8. When the season opened, the Eagles and Cowboys (with new head coach Mike McCarthy) were expected to battle for the East title. However, both teams have struggled all season with Philly at 4-9-1 and Dallas at 5-9 but ironically, BOTH remain in the hunt for the NFC East title, as 6-8 Washington is the division-leader (the Giants, like the Cowboys, are 5-9). These teams met back in Week 8 at Philly, when the starting QBs for the game were rookie Ben DiNucci for the Cowboys and veteran Carson Wentz for the Eagles. That situation has been reversed here, as 33-year-old veteran Andy Dalton is under center for Dallas, while 22-year-old rookie Jalen Hurts makes his THIRD straight start for Philly.

Hurts is 1-1 as the starter since replacing Wentz. The Eagles pulled an upset of New Orleans in his first start (167 yards passing one TD / 106 rushing yards) but then lost in Arizona (338 passing yards and three TDs / 63 yards rushing and one TD). RB Miles Sanders has missed some time but it's been a good sophomore season for the RB with 810 yards on 5.4 YPC with five TDs. TE Ertz has been hurt and while he's returned the last three games, he's had just two catches in each one (he caught 88 and 116 passes the L2 years with 14 TDs!). Goedert (43 catches / 3 TDs) has filled in well but Philly's WR corps has seen Jackson miss almost all season (he may play here) with Ward leading with 50 catches (6 TDs) and Fulgham catching 45 with 4 TDs. The Eagles are averaging 21.6 PPG (25th) and allowing 25.8 PPG (22nd).

Dak Prescott was again putting up big numbers before his injury but Dallas wasn't winning. Little changed after he went down but all of a sudden, the Cowboys won 30-7 at Cincy and 41-33 at home to the 49ers. Veteran Andy Dalton has been efficient in the wins, completing 62.5% with four TDs and zero INTs (has averaged a modest 197.0 YPG through the air). He has a VERY talented trio of WRs in Cooper (82 catches / 5 TDs), rookie Lamb (66  / 4 TDs) and Gallup (49 / 3 TDs)  plus TE Schultz (53 / 4 TDs) is solid. RB Elliott has underachieved (832 yards on just 3.9 YPC with 5 TDs). He missed his first-ever regular season game due to a calf injury last week but did resistance training at practice Wednesday and could be back in the lineup Sunday. Tony Pollard scored twice and gained 132 yards from scrimmage (69 yards on  5.8 YPC with two TDs), against the Niners in Elliott's absence. The Dallas defense has been a MAJOR issue all season, allowing 30.9 PPG.

The winner here could have a chance to win the division title if Washington loses at home to the Panthers today. Philadelphia won the first meeting 23-9 and supporters will point to this stat. Since 2017 when they won the Super Bowl, the Eagles are 11-2 in games they must win or they'd be eliminated from the playoffs or mathematically knocked out of contention. However, the Eagles enter this contest having lost FIVE in a row on the road, going 0-5 ATS while allowing 30.0 PPG. Dalton has been very solid in the Cowboys' back-to-back wins (see above) plus he's led the Cowboys to wins in three of their last five, completing 66.1 percent of his passes for 1,097 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs during that five-game stretch. He has not been intercepted since Dec 8. Dallas is also plus-seven in turnover margin the last two games, after being among the NFL's worst at minus-13 through the first 12 games. Those seven takeaways in two games came after Dallas forced just 11 in the first 12 games. Again, neither team can control the Carolina/Washington outcome but the winner just could be playing a meaningful game in Week 17, IF Washington loses. My pick says Dallas wins.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET.

How does one explain the Rams losing 23-20 at home last Sunday to the 0-13 NY Jets (as a 17 1/2-point favorite) when they had a chance to clinch a playoff berth with a win??? Were the Rams "looking ahead" to this game in Seattle with the Seahawks? "The only thing that makes you feel better is when you say, ‘All right, let's learn from it, let's own it, and let's move forward accordingly,'" Rams head coach Sean McVay said. "Because dwelling on it or getting still (ticked) off about it really doesn't do you any good for how you move forward." Here's the bottom line. The Rams won the first meeting against Seattle 23-16 back on Nov 15 in LA, as Jared Goff threw for 302 yards and Malcolm Brown rushed for a pair of TDs. That means the Rams would own the first tiebreaker against the Seahawks should they win Sunday to sweep the season series and go into the final week with matching 10-5 records. Speaking of clinching a playoff spot, the Seahawks did just that, holding on for a 20-15 win at Washington, in a game that was NOT as close as the final. Seattle has now clinched its NINTH playoff berth in head coach Pete Carroll's 11 seasons. "(That) was a really big weekend for us," Carroll said. "Real happy with the game that we put together, the way that the whole approach of it worked out well. We got the win that we were looking for and we got a little bit of help too, the Jets, getting their game. All of that adds together and sets up a really big opportunity this weekend coming up."

Jared Goff has had a solid if unspectacular season, completing 68.0% for 3,718 yards with 20 TDs and 12 INTs. He has an excellent WR duo in Kupp (84 catches) and Woods (82) plus TEs Higbee and Everett have a combined 75 receptions (Higbee has 5 TD catches). The running game has NOT missed Gurley but the Rams will be without leading rusher Cam Akers (591 yards on 4.8 YPC), who suffered a high ankle sprain in the loss to New York. LA's in playoff position and has a chance to capture the NFC West because of its defense. The Rams allow just 19.2 PPG (3rd) on 286.1 YPG (1st). LA ranks first in allowing 192.0 YPG through the air and 2nd in allowing just 94.1 YPG on the ground. To win in Seattle, LA will need a great game from its defense.

Seattle jumped out to the best record in the NFC early on, then had a midseason swoon but back-to-back wnsn have them back on the cusp of winning the NFC West. QB Russell was near-perfect early on but then 'cooled off' but what is one's definition of cooling off? With two weeks to go, he's completed 70.2% for 3,806 yards with 37 TDs and 13 TDs plus has run for 475 yards on 6.3 YPC. He's got a terrific trio of WRs in Lockett (85 catches with 8 TDs), Metcalf (74 catches and 10 TDs) and Moore (33 catches / 6 TDs). As Carson (568 yards on 5.0 YCPC with 5 TDs / 32 catches with 5 TDs) has regained his health, the Seattle running game is again very good. Speaking of defense, Seattle allowed 30.4 PPG through its first eight games but has allowed just 16.0 PPG (that two TDs less per game!) over its last six.

CenturyLink Field has been easily one of the toughest home venues in the NFL and even with COVID restrictions taking away Seattle's "12th man" in 2020, the Seahawks are 6-1 SU at home this season. This contest is their final home game of the regular season and the Seahawks aren't just satisfied with a playoff berth (which they clinched last Sunday), as they haven't won an NFC West title since 2016 and haven't hosted a playoff game since January 2017. A win here (no pointspread to worry about) will give them the NFC West title and at least ONE home game in the postseason! "The Price is Sure Right" on the Seahawks.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on the Was FB team at 4:05 ET.

NFL 2020 has been a trying season for all the with the raging pandemic and Washington head coach Ron Rivera has had the added issue of his skin cancer diagnosis and treatment. Rivera coached the Carolina Panthers the previous NINE seasons and led them to a Super Bowl appearance after the 2015 season. When Carolina and Washington last met (Week 17 of 2019), Washington beat Carolina and Rivera was fired two days later. Now, more than a year after being fired from his first head NFL coaching job, he can clinch the NFC East title by beating the team that fired him. Yes, the 6-8 Washington FB Team can become division champs with a win!

The Panthers "got rid of Rivera," but it's clear Carolina's woes run 'deep.' It sure didn't help that superstar RB McCaffrey has played just THREE games. QB Teddy Bridgewater's numbers are not awful (69.8% for 3,360 yards with 14 TDs and eight INTs) but Carolina 'limps in' with SEVEN losses in its last eight games (Panthers are 4-10 on the season). The Carolina offense averages 23.1 PPG (22nd) and its defense allows 25.4 PPG (20th). Most troubling is the fact that the Panthers haven't been able to 'close out' games. The Panthers have lost EIGHT games in which Bridgewater had the ball in his hands on a late fourth-quarter drive with a chance to take the lead or tie. "When you have the opportunity to have that last shot, you want to be able to deliver," Bridgewater said. "And we haven't been able to deliver. We want to get over that hump." Bridgewater is 3-10 as the team's starting QB this season and owner David Tepper seemed to put him on notice with his comments this week. Bridgewater still has two years left on his contract, but the Panthers could have a top-five pick in next year's draft. Blame Bridgewater if you like but about maybe the idea that head coach Matt Rhule would be a difference-maker was 'a bridge too far!' Check his resume. Why give him that 'monster' contract?

Washington opened 2-7 but then won FOUR straight (4-0 ATS), before losing 20-15 at home to Seattle last Sunday (a FIFTH straight ATS win for Washington!). The QB situation has been a revolving door and rookie RB Gibson (659 yards on 4.7 YPC and 11 TDs) plus WR McLaurin (80 catches) BOTH missed the Seattle game. McLaurin is out here but Gibson may play. It seems like Alex Smith will be back starting at QB and his recovery from that brutal leg injury has been one of the season's "feel-good" storylines. Smith is 4-1 as the starter two years removed from breaking his right leg in gruesome fashion. If Smith makes enough progress that his strained right calf feels good enough to play, he will start. If not, it'll be 2019 first-round pick-turned third-stringer-turned starter again Dwayne Haskins, despite being disciplined for breaking COVID-19 protocol by partying without a mask last weekend.

That said, the key to a Washington win is a defense that has allowed just 14.4 PPG over its last five, against a Carolina offense that has 'failed to finish, as noted above. How 'sweet would it be' for Rivera to clinch a division title against the team that fired him last season to bring in the 'legendary' Matt Rhule, The team "without a nickname" clinches a division title today. How fitting for Daniel Snyder, an owner without a 'FB brain!'

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

"Once upon a time" Pittsburgh was 11-0 and had some wondering that just maybe, the Steelers had a chance at a 16-0 regular season. However, the 'dream' ended in "unlucky" Week 13 at home vs Washington, 23-17. Now, after back-to-back losses at Buffalo and Cincinnati, Pittsburgh's 'dream season' is on the verge of turning into a 'nightmare!' The Steelers have fallen two games back of the Chiefs for the AFC's No. 1 and currently loses a tiebreaker with the 11-3 Bills for the No. 2 seed. A loss here to the Colts and Pittsburgh could wind up with the No. 4 seed. The Colts are tied with the Tennessee Titans at 10-4 but Tennessee holds the tiebreaker, meaning the Colts have slipped to the No. 6 seed, as they also lose a tiebreaker to the 10-4 Browns. Indy can't afford a slip up either, as both the Dolphins (current No. 7 seed) and Ravens are both 9-5. Yes, there is plenty on the line in this game.

While the Steelers have clinched a spot in the playoffs despite three straight losses, the Colts are surging, having won three in a row, as well as FIVE of six. Philip Rivers has delivered for Indy, as the team's major offseason FA signee has thrown for 3,753 (he'll top 4,000 yards for the EIGHTH straight season and 12th in his last 13) with 22 TDs and nine INTs. Rookie RB Taylor looked like a bust with just 428 rushing yards through his first nine games but he's averaged 103.5 YPG on 5.8 YPC over his last four (team is 4-0). Indy's defense checks in allowing 22.9 PPG (11th) on 334.1 YPG (7th) but I'll look a little closer into those numbers in my 'close!'

The 'wolves' are out after "Big Ben," as he's taken most of the blame for Pittsburgh's slump. It's fair to say he cannot throw the deep ball anymore but he does enter this game with 3,462 passing yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs on the season. He's got excellent depth in his WR corps, with Smith-Schuster catching 82 balls with 7 TDs, Johnson catching 77 with 6 TDs, rookie Claypool catching 53 with 8 TDs and Washington catching 28 with 5 TDs. TE Ebron has 51 catches but did miss practice (back) mid-week. However, RB Connor (663 yards on 4.3 YPC) did practice and should play. Snell (384 yards) filled in last week and had 84 yards, so while Connor's return would be nice, it's NOT a game-changer.

I believe the key is Pittsburgh defense. First let me go back for a 'peek inside' Indy's numbers. The Colts allowed just 14.0 PPG through their first four but their defense has been VERY mediocre since, allowing 26.4 PPG over its last 10 games. Pittsburgh's offensive woes are real, as the Steelers have averaged just 16.3 PPG in their three-game slide (also scored just 19 points vs a COVID-ravaged Baltimore team the week before the slide began) and "Big Ben" has averaged 178.5 YPG passing the last two games with three TDs and three TDs. However, the Pittsburgh defense has been at the top or right near it week after week. Pittsburgh currently ranks second in points allowed (18.9 per) and second in total D (297.9 YPG), while Its pass D also ranks second (193.3 YPG) and its rush D ranks 8th (104.6 YPG)

The game may be played without snow but it's going be VERY cold in Pittsburgh Friday and Saturday and Sunday's forecast doesn't expect temps to be much above freezing (good old-fashioned Steeler weather). Does it mean "all that much" that Pittsburgh has won SIX straight over Indy (5-1 ATS with a MOV of 14 points)? Maybe not, but it sure doesn't 'scare me away' from my Pittsburgh play!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:30 ET.

Much has changed since Arizona upset San Francisco 24-20 back in Week 1 of the 2020 season. The 49ers entered that game as the defending NFC champs (off a 13-3 regular season), while Arizona was coming off a 5-10-1 season but was looking forward to "what could be" with Kyler Murray coming off an impressive rookie season. However, as the teams get together for a rematch in Week 16, the 5-9 Niners are coming off a 41-33 loss to the Cowboys, a defeat that officially ended the team's postseason hopes. Meanwhile, the Cards beat the Eagles 33-26 last Sunday to get 8-6 and into the No. 7 seed in the NFC (final playoff spot). A final twist to this game is that BOTH teams will be playing on the State Farm Stadium field for the THIRD time in the last four weeks, as the 49ers have been forced to relocate from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Ca, because of COVID-19 restrictions in the region. The 49ers have lost their first two 'home' games in Arizona, falling 34-24 in Week 13 to Buffalo 34-24 and then a week later 23-15 to Washington 23-15

The 49ers lost more than just a game that eliminated them from playoff contention against Dallas. The team's best (only?) RB Raheem Mostert has been ruled out for the season after aggravating a high ankle sprain in the loss, while QB Nick Mullens suffered an elbow injury that the 49ers fear could require Tommy John surgery. Mullens was not playing all that well in place of Jimmy G (12 TDs / 12 INTs) but with Garoppolo unlikely to get medical clearance to return to game action either this week or in the finale against Seattle (per head coach Kyle Shanahan), the last man standing appears to be C.J. Beathard. What's more, the San Francisco defense, which was so much a part of last season's run to the Super Bowl, has been riddled with injuries throughout the season and enters this contest having allowed 32.7 PPG during its recent three-game slide.

The Cardinals will take the field in third-place in the NFC West, two games behind Seattle (10-4) and one back of the Los Angeles Rams (9-5). The Rams are at Seattle this Sunday and if the Cards win, they would be just ONE game back of both teams if the Rams win or be tied with the Rams if they lose, going into their matchup in LA in Week 17. Best case scenario for the Cards would be a win and a Chicago loss at Jacksonville, which would clinch a playoff spot. However, the Jags are on a 13-game losing streak. Then again, so were the Jets until last week. Murray threw for a season-best 406 yards and three TDs in last week's home win over Philadelphia. He's thrown for 3,637 yards with 26 TDs and 11 TDs in 2020, while adding 741 rushing yards (6.0 YPC) with 11 TDs. RB Drake leads the team with 874 yards on 4.1 YPC (9 TDs), as the Cards rank 4th in the league averaging 147.8 YPG on the ground. WR Hopkins ranks with the best in the NFL, hauling in 103 passes with six TDs. The Cards D has struggled at times but overall, comes in allowing 23.5 PPG on the season (13th).

I'm assuming the 49ers won't take a chance on Jimmy G but if they do, he couldn't possibly be "ready for primetime." It's likely Beathard will start or maybe even Josh Rosen, who the Niners claimed off the Tampa Bay practice squad to serve as Beathard's backup (Can I vote for Rosen?). Murray should have little trouble against a San Francisco defense that gave up 41 points without forcing a TO against an Andy Dalton-led Dallas team. Meanwhile, the 49ers coughed it up FOUR times, giving them 29 giveaways and a minus-11 TO margin on the season (both rank 2nd-worst in the NFL next to the Broncos). The Cards win with ease and depending how a few other games turn out Sunday, should be in excellent shape for an important Week 17 game, as well as a wild card game the following weekend.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:05 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC East last season (9-7) and despite a 4-8-1 record in 2020, are just ONE game back in the loss column behind NFC East leader Washington (6-7) with three weeks remaining. What a year 2020 has been! The Eagles are in Arizona to face the 7-6 Cardinals (no easy challenge) but do know that Washington is hosting an excellent Seattle team and the 5-8 Giants should have their hands full with the New & Improved Browns in SNF. An upset win here by the Eagles, "could be a game-changer. However, the Eagles are facing a team also  BADLY in need of a win in the Cardinals. Arizona had lost three straight (and four of five) before winning 26-7 last Sunday at the Giants. That victory gave the Cards a 7-6 record, moving them into the SEVENTH and final NFC playoff spot. The 6-7 Bears and Vikings loom at 6-7 and since Chicago is at Minnesota, the winner moves to 7-7, meaning a loss would drop the Cards to 7-7 and into tiebreaking protocol!

The Eagles made a change at QB last week, benching Wentz in favor of rookie Jaen Hurts. The former Alabama and Oklahoma QB went 17 of 30 for 167 yards (one TD / zero INTs) plus ran for 106 yards, as the Eagles delivered a pivotal 24-21 win at home against the New Orleans Saints (Saints had won NINE in a row!). Philly also got news with RB Sanders back on the field, as he ran just 14 times but for 115 yards with two TDs (he has 746 yards on 5.7 YPC on the season, despite being in and out of the lineup). The Philly offense has struggled all season (21.3 PPG on 326, 3 YPG rank 23rd and 25th, respectively), while the D has been only middle-of-the back, allowing 25.2 PPG (19th) on 347.9 YPG (14th).

Arizona QB Kyler Murray had been slowed some in the Cards' 1-4 skid but what's to complain about him throwing for 3,231 yards (23 TDs / 10 INTs) plus rushing for 712 yards (6.2 YPC) and 10 TDs? RB Drake (848 yards on 4.2 YPC with 9 TDs) give Arizona a strong running game (151.2 YPG ranks 4th), while WRs Hopkins 994 catches / 5 TDs) plus Fitzgerald (45 catches ) and Kirk (38 catches / 6b TDs) give Murray quality targets. on the defensive side of the ball, the Cards were allowing just 18.7 PPG over their first six games entering their Week 7 game with Seattle and although the Cards won (37-34), the defense had allowed 30.7 PPG over its previous six, before holding the Giants to seven points and 159 yards on 10 FDs.

Murray is a proven commodity, while Hurst is at best, a "work in progress. The Eagles visit "the desert" having gone 0-4 SU and ATS their last four on the road and I say make it 0-5 SU & ATS after this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The 6-7 Minnesota Vikings welcome the 6-7 Chicago Bears to U.S. Bank Stadium with both teams sitting just outside the final playoff spot in the NFC, one game back of the 7-6 Arizona Cardinals. Minnesota owns the tiebreaker against Chicago thanks to a 19-13 road victory in Week 10. Nick Foles suffered hip and glute injuries at the end of that game, prompting head coach Mike Nagy to reinsert Mitch Trubisky as the starter. Foles started eight games following the early-season benching of Trubisky. Trubisky has passed for at least 242 yards in each of his three starts since, and last week finished 24-of-33 for 267 yards and three TDs as the Bears snapped a SIX-game losing streak with a 36-7 home rout of Houston. Minnesota is coming off a 26-14 loss at Tampa Bay and head coach Mike Zimmer has been non-committal regarding the struggles of PK Dan Bailey. He missed three FGs and an extra point against the Buccaneers, one week after missing a FG and two extra points in an overtime win against Jacksonville. Asked first whether Bailey will kick against the Bears and later if the team will pursue another kicker, Zimmer responded with "We'll see," both times.

Neither Foles nor Trubisky seems like the 'answer' at QB for Chicago and it surely doesn't help that Cjhicago's running game averages just 93.2 YPG (28th) on YPC. Montgomery is the lone RB of note, rushing for 760 yards on 4.5 YPC and four TDs. WR Robinson (86 catches / 6 TDs) is again having a good season, while TE Graham has 42 catches (had just 38 LY with Green Bay) and six TDs (had a total of just FIVE the previous two seasons). The defense remains solid, allowing 22.4 PPG (9th) on 347.5 YPG (13th) but the offense averages just 21.7 PPG (25th) on 319.8 YPG (28th).

Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins rarely gets respect but he's completing 67.5% for 3,298 yards with 27 TDs and 12 INTs for a 102.7 QB rating in 2020. That comes on the heels of him completing 70.1 and 69.1% in his first two seasons with the Vikings, passing for 4,298 and 3,603 yards with 56 YTDs and 16 INTs with QB ratings of 90.7 and 107.4. He misses WR Diggs (at Buffalo) but rookie Jefferson has 65 catches on 16.6 YPC with seven TDs, while veteran Thielen has 60 catches with 12 TDs. RB Dalvin Cook topped 100 yards for the third time in four games last week and is the No. 2 rusher in the league (1,352 yards on 5.0 YPC) and is the leader in rushing TDs with 14. Of course, the defense has struggled for most of the season (27.3 PPG allowed ranks 24th).

However, Minnesota's defense DOMINATED the Bears in that Week 10 contest, holding Chicago to 149 yards and a mere 10 FDs. The Bears gained just 41 rushing yards on 17 carries and the team's lone TD of that contest came on a 104-yard KO return. The Bears had beaten the Vikings in all four meetings in 2018 and 12019, so Minnesota's Week 10 win at Chicago was a nice breakthrough. Not sure the Vikings can catch the Cards but this is a VERY winnable game, as is their Week 17 game with the Lions. Next week's game with the Saints? Not so much. Minnesota "keeps hope alive' with a solid home victory here, as the Bears say bye-bye to the 2020 postseason.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on the Sea Seahawks at 1:00 ET.

The Seattle Seahawks are making a habit of facing the first-place team from the NFC East. After beating the Eagles 23-17 at Philadelphia (Week 12) and losing 17-12 at home to the Giants (Week 13), the 9-4 Seahawks will play at 6-7 Washington on Sunday in Week 15, which currently tops the NFC East. Washington has won and covered four straight to take the lead in the NFL's worst division, while Seattle's 9-4 record has them tied atop the NFC West with the Rams but LA owns the tiebreaker. That means Seattle finds itself with the top wild card seed in the NFC (5th).

Russell Wilson quickly established himself as the early favorite for league MVP but after a 5-0 start, Seattle has gone just 4-4. Wilson entered last week's game with just four TDs and three INTs in his previous four games but the in beating their hapless Jets, he had four TD passes. By any measure, Wilson's having a terrific season, completing 70.4% for 3,685 yards with 36 TDs and just 12 INTs (109.0 QB rating. He's got two top-notch WRs in Metcalf (69 catches on 17.1 YPC with 10 TDs ) and Lockett (81 catches with eight TDs). The running game is better than average, gaining 121.1 YPG (12th). The Seahawks' defense has been another story, ranking last in the 32-team league for most of the season but moved up to No. 27 (390.3 YPG) after allowing just 185 total yards in last Sunday's 40-3 pounding of the winless New York Jets.

Washington QB Alex Smith suffered a strained right calf shortly before halftime in last weekend's 23-15 victory at San Francisco and has missed practice time this week, as has leading rusher Antonio Gibson (toe). Coach Ron Rivera said Smith could be a game-time decision. Dwayne Haskins, the No. 15 overall pick in 2019 who was benched after starting the first four games of the season, would replace Smith if he's unavailable. Haskins was 7-of-12 passing for 51 yards against the 49ers. Gibson's absence (he's listed as doubtful) would be HUGE, as he's really come on (659 yards on 4.7 YPC with 11 TDs). Neither Smith nor Haskins 'scare' any defense, even Seattle's. Speaking of defense, Washington's scored twice last week, on an interception 76 yards for a TD and a fumble recovery that went 47 yards for a score. It marked the first time since 1992 Washington won on the road without scoring an offensive TD. In the team's 4-0 run, the defense has allowed 14.3 PPG.

Maybe I'm being stubborn but I'm having a lot of trouble 'buying' Washington and will take Seattle here, which can be pretty sure it will need a win to stay even with the 9-4 Rams, who are hosting the 0-13 Jets. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET.

The 6-7 New England Pats are staring at what likely is their first non-playoff season since 2008, the last time they didn't win the AFC East. The AFC East winner that season was the 11-5 Miami Dolphins. Miami entered this season having not made the playoffs in 16 of the last 18 seasons but at 8-5, have a chance to claim a wild card spot in 2020. The Bills own a two-game lead over Miami in the division but the Dolphins are currently the No. 7 seed, although only by virtue of owning the tiebreaker over the 8-5 Ravens. However, the Dolphins are just ONE game back of the 5th-seeded Browns and 6th-seeded Titans, who are both 9-4.

Patriots QB Cam Newton, a former league MVP in 2015, is just 6-6 as a starter this season, throwing just five TD passes while getting intercepted 10 times (QB rating is a pathetic 78.9). He has run for 451 with 11 TDs and along with RB Harris (691 yards on 5.0 YPC) gives New England a very good running attack (147.5 YPG ranks 5th). However, Harris injured his back in the fourth quarter of Week 14's loss to the Los Angeles Rams and has been ruled out for Sunday. The receiving corps is one of the league's least impressive, with Edelman having not played since Oct 25. WRs Byrd and Mathis each have 42 catches but between the two, have just one TD catch!. New England's defense ranked first in scoring D (14.1 PPG) and total D (275.9 YPG) in 2019 but this year's unit is allowing 21,5 PPG (that's a full TD higher) on 342.9 YPG (about 70 YPG more per game).

Miami began the season with a 21-11 loss in Week 1 at New England, as veteran Ryan Fitzgerald was the starting QB. However, in the return matchup, Tua Tagovailoa, the No. 5 overall pick in this year's NFL Draft is under center. Despite a lack of healthy, front-line starters at RB, WR, TE or on the offensive line, Tagovailoa is 4-2 as a starter, throwing nine TDs against just one INT (95.2 QB rating). Miami's running game is mostly non-existent (95.2 YPG ranks 27th), so the fact Myles Gaskins 477 yards on 3.9 YPC) is out hardly matters much. TE Gesicki (44 catches / 8 TDs) is not expected to play (big loss) and WR Parker (56 catches / 8 TDs) is questionable. However, as noted above, Tua is making things happen despite missing key offensive players. Just ask KC, which saw him pass for 316 yards and two TDs in last Sunday's hard-fought 33-27 loss. 

While New England's defense is way off from last year, Miami's D ranks second in the league in allowing 18.8 PPG. Miami's 25 takeaways ties them for tops in the league with Pittsburgh, with the team's turnover margin of plus-10, being just ONE behind Pittsburgh's leading total of plus-11. Looking back at the Week 1 game, Fitzgerald threw THREE interceptions and still Miami trailed just 14-11 before a fourth quarter TD gave New England the 10-point win. The Pats are just 2-5 on the road, winning only at the 0-13 Jets (on a FG as time expired) and at the 5-9 Chargers. Meanwhile, the Dolphins own the NFL's best ATS record at 10-3, TWO games better than ANY team in the league. Even when the Pats were the division's dominant team the last three seasons, the Dolphins were able to beat them once each in 2019 (27-24 in New England), in 2018 34-33 in Miami) and 2017 (27-20 in Miami). This time around, the Dolphins are the better team and a win is NEEDED to hold the team's playoff position. Tua over Cam and Miami's defense over New England's.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET.

Tampa Bay (8-5) currently sits in sixth place in the NFC, after a 26-14 victory last week at home against Minnesota. Tom Brady was nothing special (15 of 23 for 196 yards and two TDs) but he has 30 TD passes on the season, the EIGHTH time he's done that. The Bus visited Atlanta for a game with the 4-9 Falcons, who are hoping to play the spoiler's role in another lost season. The Falcons' 20-17 loss last week at the Los Angeles Chargers clinched a third straight sub.-500 campaign. Barring a season-ending three-game winning streak, Atlanta will fail to match its 7-9 record of the last two years.

Atlanta fired head coach Dan Quinn after starting 0-5 but is 4-4 under interim coach Raheem Morris, with mostly competitive efforts. QB Matt Ryan has thrown for 3,660 yards (will top 4,000 for the 10th straight season!) with 19 TDs and 11 INTs. Todd Gurley (645 yards on just 3.6 YPF but 9 TDs) has NOT helped the running game, as Atlanta averages a woeful 08.3 YPG on 3.76 YPC. The defense allows 390.6 YPG (28th) but a more modest 24.8 PPG (16th).

Brady's completing of 64.8% for 3,496 yards with 30 TDs and 11 INTS and RB Ronald Jones (900 yards on 5.0 YPC with 6 TDs) has given Tampa Bay a nice offensive balance. However, he was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday. He was already considered questionable after undergoing surgery Tuesday to have pins placed in a fractured pinkie finger. Leonard Fournette (271 yards) will take over but note that 103 of his 271 rushing yards this season came back in a Week 2 win. Tampa Bay's season-long defensive rankings look solid, allowing 22.6 PPG (11th) on 330.3.9 YPG (7th) but in the team's 1-3 slide (before its win over Minnesota in Week 14), the "stop unit" had done little 'stopping,' allowing 28.8 PPG. The Vikings scored just 14 points but missed three FGs and an extra-point.

This marks the first of two matchups between the Bucs and Falcons in the season's final three weeks (Falcons play at Tampa in Week 17). I realize that the Bucs are focused on breaking a 13-year playoff drought, the second-longest drought in the NFL, but the Falcons are 6-2 ATS their last eight as a division home dog. Also, current Atlanta head coach Morris was Tampa Bay's head coach from 2009-11 before being fired. How much would he 'love' to play spoiler here? Home dog 'barks' loudly.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Year is on the LV Raiders at 8:20 ET.

The Raiders have allowed 200-plus rushing yards in their last two games but were able to split the two games, escaping with a 'miracle' win at the Jets in Week 13 but getting 'run over' 44-27 by the Colts last Sunday at home. The Raiders are now 7-6 and currently or on the outside looking in as the ninth seed in a crowded seven-team AFC playoff race. A loss here in Thursday night's home game with the 4-9 Los Angeles Chargers is as the saying goes, "NOT an option!"

The Chargers have found a franchise QB in  Justin Herbert (66.3% for 3,467 yards with 25 TDs and 10 INTs in his rookie season) but the team has found a myriad of ways to blow big leads. Despite Herbert and WR Allen's (99 catches / 8 TDs) excellent seasons, the offense is averaging a modest 22.8 PPG (22nd), while the defense allows 27.8 PPG (26th).

QB Derek Carr is "on pace" for the best season of his career (68.2% for 3,343 yards with 24 TDs and 7 INTs / QB rating of 102.1), supported by RB Jacobs (831 yards and 9 TDs) plus TE Waller (84 catches / 7 TDs). Las Vegas' offense is scoring a bit more than LA's at 26.9 PPG but its defense has struggled most of the season (30.1 PPG ranks 30th!).

These teams met back in LA on Nov 8 (Week 9) and in that one, it looked like the Chargers had won on a 4-yard TD pass on the final play of the game. However, the score was eventually overturned when a replay review showed the ball hit the ground as the receiver came down on the sideline chalk before establishing full control (Las Vegas won, 31-26). That Week 9 win gave the Raiders THREE straight victories over the Chargers. The Chargers are coming off a 20-17 victory over Atlanta on Sunday, hitting a 43-yard field goal as time expired for the winning points. Herbert produced the first game-winning, fourth-quarter drive of his career. 

However, considering that the Chargers haven't won back-to-back games all season, I want NO part of them here. As noted above, the Raiders are in a "must-win" situation, as their game next week with the Dolphins won't mean much if they lose here. Las Vegas was a one-point favorite in LA, meaning the Raiders should be a much bigger favorite than they are here at home. Here's some stats to 'chew on!' The Raiders are 8-2 ATS since the start of last season vs AFC West foes, while the Chargers are 1-7-1 ATS over the same time frame vs division opponents. That's a pretty sweet 'daily double' in favor of the Raiders!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC North Game of the Year (MNF Magic) is on the Bal Ravens at 8:15 ET.

The Cleveland Browns are looking to end a 17-season playoff drought after taking a big step in the right direction with last Sunday's 41-35 win at the Tennessee Titans, a team that played in last season's AFC title game. The 9-3 Browns welcome the hated-Baltimore Ravens to Cleveland on Monday night, a team that got a much-needed 34-17 win last Tuesday at home over the Cowboys. Baltimore opened the season 5-1 but had lost FOUR of its last five prior to the win over Dallas, dealing with inconsistent play and severe COVID-19 issues. Cleveland currently owns the No. 5 seed in the AFC, while Baltimore is 7-5 and out of the playoffs at the moment. However, a Baltimore win moves them into a tie with 8-5 Miami for the No. 7 seed (final playoff spot) plus would put them just ONE game back of the 9-4 Browns and Titans.

QB Lamar Jackson was activated off the reserve/COVID-19 list a day before the game with Dallas and looked fresh, despite passing for just 107 yards. He rushed for 94 yards as the Ravens dominated the trenches by racking up 294 on the ground. Jackson won't come close to last season's MVP numbers (3,127 passing yards with 36 TDs and 6 INTs / 1,206 rushing yards with 7 TDs) but he does have a solid 17-7 TD/INT ratio and leads Baltimore in rushing with 669 yards 5.8 YPC (4 TDs). Baltimore averaged an NFL-record 206.0 YPG (5.5 YPC) last season and again leads with 169.0 YPC on 5.2 YPC. Mark Ingram joined Jackson with more than 1,000 yards rushing last year but has just 260 yards in 2020. However, Edwards has 487 yards (4.8 YPC / 7 TDs) and rookie Dobbins 451 yards (5.4 YPC / 4 TDs). Baltimore's D allowed 17.6 PPG (2nd) on 300.6 YPG (4th) and this t0year's unit is not far off those numbers, allowing 19.3 PPG (4th) on 337.7 YPG (10th).

Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield passed for four TDs and a season-high 334 yards against the Titans last week, with all of his TDs coming in the first half. Mayfield also threw four of his five TDs in the second half of a win against Cincinnati back on Oct 25. No other QB has matched that in the NFL in 2020. However, note that Mayfield had thrown just two TD passes over his previous four games. His season high prior to last Sunday was just 297 yards. He's barely averaging over 200 YPG passing in 2020, although he's greatly improved his TD/INT ratio to 21-7, after last year's 22-21 mark (his QB rating is 97.9, up from 73.8 in 2019). Cleveland's two-RB attack is just behind Baltimore, ranking second in the NFL by averaging 157.8 YPG on the ground (4.9 YPC). Chubb has 799 yards (6.0 YPC / 7 TDs) and Hunt has 739 yards (4.3 YPC / 4 TDs). However, Cleveland's defense is allowing a worrisome 26.8 PPG (24th).

Cleveland's win over Tennessee was just its SECOND over a team with a current winning record (also beat the 9-4 Colts 32-23 back in Week 7). The Browns' other seven wins have come over Ciny (twice), Washington, Dallas, Houston, Jacksonville and Philadelphia. Just for the record, those seven own a combined record of 21-55-2 (.282). There is NO doubt that Cleveland's first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski has established a different culture but I still don't trust them vs Baltimore, which CRUSHED them in Week 1 by the score of 38-6! That's not exactly news, as since John Harbaugh was named Baltimore's head coach prior to the 2008 season, the Ravens had won 20 of the 24 meetings from through 2019, including a 10-2 mark in Cleveland. Having made it 21 wins in the last 25 games with that Week 1 win, the Ravens now go for a NINTH season-sweep of the series. BTW, Lamar Jackson passed for 275 yards and three TDs and added 45 yards on the ground in that Week 1. Deja vu? 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Buf Bills at 8:20 ET.

The Pittsburgh Steelers visit Buffalo for a SNF game with the Bills and for the FIRST time in 2020, the Steelers are coming off a loss. Pittsburgh was upset 23-17 by Washington last Monday and will head to Buffalo 11-1 and hoping to keep pace with (or move ahead of) the 11-1 Chiefs by beating Buffalo. That will be no easy chore, as the Bills are 9-3 after also playing last Monday but coming away with a 34-24 win over San Francisco in a game played in Glendale, Az (home of the Cardinals.

"Big Ben" has bounced back from missing all of last season with a strong season (66.9% for 3,105 yards with 27 TDs and 7 INTs). He's got an excellent trio of WRs in Smith-Schuster (73 catches / 6 TDs), Johnson (65 / 5 TDs) and rookie Claypool (47 / 8 TDs) plus TE Ebron has 49 catches with four TDs. However, Pittsburgh RBs have fought injuries all season and Pittsburgh enters the game averaging only 92.6 YPG on the ground (29th), averaging 3.7 YPC. The defense has been the 'star' of the 2020 season, allowing 17.6 PPG (1st) on 300.5 YPG (3rd).

That defense will be tested by Buffalo QB Josh Allen who is having a breakout year!  I say that even though he began the current season as just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. However, his 2020 season has been "pretty darn good!" THREE times this season he has thrown for at least 375 yards and three TDs, with a passer rating of at least 130. That includes Monday night, when he threw for 375 yards and four TDs with a 139.1 QB rating. He is the AFC Offensive Player of the Week for the THIRD time. His Y-T-D numbers have him completing 69.9% for 3,403 yards with 26 TDs and eight INTs (QB rating of 105.9). Buffalo's running game is much better than Pittsburgh's (107.4 YPG on 4.0 YPC) but the addition of WR Diggs has been HUGE. He leads the team with 90 catches (four TDs)., while fellow WR Beasley, who has averaged 59 catches per season the last five, has 66 through 12 games (on pace for 88).

After a long winning streak ends, many assume a "bounce-back" but just as often, that team suffers a let down. Pittsburgh's offense has averaged just 18.0 PPG its last two games an as noted above, I believe the Pittsburgh D will have its hands full with Josh Allen. Buffalo's trying to win the AFC East for the first time since 1995 and this contest is its LONE home game in a four-week span. NO "bounce-back" here for the Steelers!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Non Division Game of the Year is on the SF 49ers at 4:25 ET. 

Washington and San Francisco are both 5-7 but while Washington is tied for first in the NFC East, the NFC defending champion 49ers are mired in last-place in the NFC West. Washington began the season 1-5 but its shocking 23-17 win Monday against the previously unbeaten Steelers kept them in a tie with the Giants, who had pulled off quite an upset of their own last Sunday in winning 17-12 at Seattle as an 11-point underdog. Meanwhile, the 49ers made an uphill climb a good bit steeper with a 34-24 loss to the Buffalo Bills last Monday night in Glendale, Az. San Francisco will again 'host' Washington in Glendale on Sunday.

Washington's recent surge has coincided with QB Alex Smith's return from a near career-ending injury (actually, life-threatening). Smith's comeback is truly remarkable but he has just four TD passes and five INTs with a VERY poor QB rating of 83.8. In fact, Washington's defensive play has been the key, as Washington ranks eighth in points allowed (21.7 per) and 4th in total yards (310.9 YPG). That's because in the team's 3-0 SU and ATS run, Washington's D has allowed just 14.0 PPG on 281.7 YPG.

San Francisco has been riddled by injuries all season but ironically, the 49ers were healthier than they've been in a while for Monday's game with Buffalo. However, the San Francisco defense couldn't handle Buffalo QB Josh Allen who threw for 375 yards with four TDs (no INTs). Nick Mullens (still in for Jimmy G) threw for 316 yards and three TDs (but had two INTs). San Francisco's defense has not quite played up to the standards of last year's edition but the 49ers have allowed 24.0 PPG (13th) on 326.3 YPG (6th).

Kudos to Washington's recent play but the 49ers have WON five of their last six meetings with Washington and a closer look at Monday's loss to Buffalo reveals that San Francisco turned the ball over on downs at the Buffalo one-yard line plus Nick Mullens threw two interceptions, including one in the end zone. The 49ers are almost sure to miss the postseason but expect them to get the better of Washington in this one, "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET.

The Colts opened the season losing 27-20 at Jacksonville (the Jags have lost 11 in a row since!) but have recovered from that embarrassment to sit 8-4 as the season enters Week 14. Indy is tied with Tennessee atop the AFC South but the Titans own the tiebreaker. The Colts also lose a tiebreaker to the 8-4 Dolphins, so they currently are the No. 7 seed, the final playoff spot. The Raiders welcome the Colts to Las Vegas off a last-second win last Sunday at the Jets, giving them a 7-5 record which has them in the No. 8 slot, although the Ravens are also 7-5.

After spending his entire career with the Chargers, Philip Rivers signed with the Colts as a FA prior to the start of the current season. He's well on his way to another 4,000-yard season, passing for 3,263 yards with 18 TDs and nine TDs. He hasn't got much help from Indy's running game (only 104.8 YPG), as rookie Taylor (609 yards on 4.1 YPC) has been a disappointment. The Colts defense was near the top of the league for most of the season but the Colts have allowed 32.0 PPG over their last three games. 

Las Vegas QB Derek Carr (68.1% for 3,027 yards with 22 TDs and just five INTs / 104.1 QB rating) is having the best season of his career and comes as the star of last Sunday's 'storybook' 31-28 victory over the winless New York Jets. Taking advantage of an all-out blitz, he hit rookie WR Henry Ruggs III in one-on-one coverage for a 46-yard TD with five seconds to go! It was the 20th career fourth-quarter comeback for Carr, an NFL record for most in a player's first seven seasons. He finished with 381 yards passing with three TD passes and one TD run. RB Josh Jacobs (782 yards and nine TDs) gives the offense balance and TE  Darren Waller has 77 catches and seven TDs on the season, after his 13 catches for a career-high 200 yards and two TDs vs the Jets. He is just the fourth tight end in NFL history to have 200-plus receiving yards and two TDs in a game. The defense has been an issue most of the season, allowing 28.9 PPG (28th).

Rivers is well-familiar with the Raiders, as this will be his 29th start against them. This contest has major playoff implications for both teams, as the Colts hold the 7th and final playoff spot in the AFC, while the Raiders are just ONE game back. The good news for Las Vegas is that this contest is the first of THREE straight home games, although the Chargers should be a win, this game and the Week 16 game with the Dolphins will likely determine the team's playoff fate. As for the Colts, they follow this game with a second game in their last three with the Texans. The Raiders are the only team to beat the Chiefs (won in KC) and almost took down the Chiefs here in Las Vegas back in Week 11 (lost 35-31). Las Vegas is a very 'LIVE' home dog!

Good luck...Larry 

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Arz Cardinals at 1:00 ET.

Arizona, the LA Rams and Seattle were all 6-3 and tied atop the NFC West entering Week 11. However as Sunday Dec 13 dawns, the Rams are 9-4, Seattle 8-4 (and poised to join them at 9-4 with a home game against the Jets on tap) but the Cards have fallen off the pace at 6-6. Arizona has lost FOUR of five (lone exception was its 'miracle' Hail Mary win against the Bills). However, in this "season like no other," Arizona's 6-6 record would have them in first place in the 2020 NFC East, ONE game up on New York. The slumping Cards are at MetLife Field on Sunday to take on the surging Giants, who have won FOUR in a row, after a shocking 17-12 win in Seattle (as an 11-point underdog) last Sunday.

Arizona Kyler Murray has been contained better recently but the second-year player is having an impressive season. He's thrown for 2,997 yards with 22 TDs and 10 INTs plus he's run for 665 yards on 56.5 YPC with 10 rush TDs. Drake (768 yards on 4.3 YPC with 5 TDs) has become a reliable RB and his ankle is said to be fine. The problem for Arizona has been its defense. The Cards were allowing just 18.7 PPG over their first six games entering their Week 7 game with Seattle and although the Cards won (37-34), the defense has allowed 30.7 PPG its last six.

The Giants' 2020 season seemed "all but dead" after eight games, when they fell to 1-7 with a 25-23 MNF Week 8 loss to the Bucs. However, the Giants had been competitive in four straight games, a one-point win and three losses by a combined SIX points. The Giants enter this contest on a FOUR-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) and are now tied with Washington for first in the NFC East (Eagles are only 3-8-1) but do own the tiebreaker. QB Jones missed last week's win at Seattle, despite Colt McCoy going just 13 of 22 for 105 yards with one TD and one INT (67.4 QB rating). However, RB Gallman ran for 135 yards and the New York defense held Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense to just one TD. 

The victory marked New York's first win this season over a winning team but while the Cards are just 6-6, Arizona is still 'alive' in the NFC wild card chase. Jones is expected to be back but is that really good news. He has more INTs (9) than TD passes (8) on the season with one of the NFL's worst QB ratings (78.7) among regular starters. The Cards are the better team and are overdue for a breakout performance. The "numbers" tell us that the Cards are 8-3 ATS in non-division road games AND that the Giants are just 3-12 ATS their last 15 as a home dog since the start of the 2018 season (an 80% go-against).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked as good as any team in the NFC when they were sitting at 6-2 but a 1-3 run has seen them fall back to 7-5 and all of a sudden, the Bucs are fighting for a wild card spot. As for the Vikings, they were 10-6 last season and upset the 13-3 Saints in the playoffs but opened the 2020 season 1-5. However, in contrast to the Bucs, the Vikings come into this contest having won FIVE and six and at 6-6, are tied with the Cards just ONE game back of the Bucs plus Minnesota currently own the tiebreaker over Arizona. Both teams can bolster their NFC playoff chances with a win on Sunday.

Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins rarely gets respect but he's completing 67.8% for 3,073 yards with 26 TDs and 12 INTs for a 103.9 QB rating in 2020. That comes on the heels of him completing 70.1 and 69.1% in his first two seasons with the Vikings, passing for 4,298  and 3,603 yards with 56 YTDs and 16 INTs with QB ratings of 90.7 and 107.4. He misses WR Diggs (at Buffalo) but rookie Jefferson has 61 catches on 17.0 YPC with seven TDs, while veteran Thielen has 57 catches with 12 TDs. RB Dalvin Cook is the No. 2 rusher in the league (1,250 yards on 5.0 YPC) and the leader in rushing TDs with 13. He had 38 touches (32 rushes, 6 catches) in Minnesota's 27-24 overtime win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. Of course, the defense has struggled for most of the season (27.4 PPG allowed ranks 26th) but let's not ignore those FIVE wins in six games (loss came by THREE points).

Tampa Bay limped into its bye last week with three losses in its last four games,  two by three points each to the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs. A Week 13 bye was likely good news, as the team has been plagued by slow starts (Bucs have been outscored 52-7 in the first quarter of their last four games). Brady's passed for 3,3000 yards with 28 TDs and 11 INTs (on pace for about 4,400 yards with 37 TDs) and RB Ronald Jones is fourth in the NFL in rushing yards with 820 (5.1 YPC and five TDs). WRs Goodwin (49 catches and three TDs ) and Evans (48 catches and 11 TDs) are also getting contributions from TE Gronk (37 catches and four TDs). The season-long defensive rankings look solid, allowing 23.3 PPG (11th) on 329.9 YPG (7th) but in the team's 1-3 slide, the "stop unit" has done little 'stopping,' allowing 28.8 PPG.

Brady has surely made the Bus better but the Bucs continue to struggle as a home favorite (long-time 'ugly' numbers), going 1-3 ATS in that role in 2020. Minnesota's balanced offense should give Tampa Bay's defense fits and I will NOT ignore Minnesota's 5-1 SU run with the LONE loss coming by just THREE points. Take the big points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Ls Vegas Insider Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

The New England Patriots have won FOUR of their last five, including a 45-0 'spanking' over the Chargers last Sunday. That game was played SoFi Stadium and New England head coach Bill Belichick and his team celebrated that triumph by staying in Los Angeles and working out at UCLA as opposed to making a pair of cross-country flights, as the Pats are right back in SoFi Stadium on Thursday night to face the Los Angeles Rams. Arizona, the LA Rams and Seattle were all 6-3 and tied atop the NFC West entering Week 11 but as Week 14 dawns, the Rams and Seahawks are tied at 8-4 (Rams currently own the tiebreaker), while the Cards have fallen off the pace at 6-6.

That Pats won 45-0 last Sunday in a game in which they gained just 291 of total offense. QB Cam Newton passed for only 69 yards but did have 48 rushing yards with two TDs. The Pats became the seventh team in league history to have a punt returned for a TD (70 yards) and a blocked field goal returned for a TD (44 yards) in the same game. New England did run for 165 yards and for the season have averaged 150.9 YPG on the ground (3rd in the NFL). However, Newton has been just AWFUL as a passer with just five TDs and nine INTs and a QB rating of 80.3 (among the worst of all QBs). The team's top-two pass catchers (Byrd and Meyers) have a combined 75 receptions and just one TD! New England's defense ranked first in the NFL in points allowed (14.1 PPG) and total defense (275.0 YPG) last season but even after last week's shutout, is allowing 21.3 PPG (NINE points per game more than LY) on 344.6 YPG (about 70 YPG more).

Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing for 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for around 4,500 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 17-10 (QB rating of 93.7). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 124.2 YPG (ranks 9th) this season. Henderson, Brown and recently Akers have shared the ball carrying duties. Cam Akers ran 21 times for 72 yards and a TD in LA;s 38-28 win over the Cards but he has an ailing shoulder. Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown will fill in just fine if he's not 100 percent. While New England's top-two receivers have combined for just 75 catches, LA's Kupp has 74 catches and Woods 71. The TE duo of Higbee and Everett have a combined 66 catches with five TDs. As for defense, led by two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Los Angeles ranks fifth in scoring defense (20.3 PPG) and second in total defense (295.3 YPG).

An important matchup will be New England's running game (150.9 YPG ranks 3rd) against LA's rush D, which allows 93.1 YPG (3rd-best). The Pats were just 1-4 SU on the road before last Sunday's 45-0 blowout, with their LONE win coming against the still-winless Jets, game game the Pats trailed 27-17 in the fourth quarter before winning 30-27 on a 51-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock. A quick turnaround here vs a VERY good Rams team is NOT a good spot for the Pats. The Rams own impressive wins over Seattle and at Tampa Bay plus last week's 10-point win at Arizona over their last four games (loss came on a FG by the Niners on the final play of the game). Rams are the play!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Buf Bills at 8:15 ET.

The 8-3 Buffalo Bills and 5-6 San Francisco 49ers meet MNF at the home of the Arizona Cardinals, State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Az. The 49ers' home field is Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Ca and due to new COVID-related restrictions in Santa Clara County San Francisco's "home" games in Week 13 (Buffalo) and Week 14 (Washington) have been relocated to the Cardinals' home stadium. The Bills sit atop the AFC East but Miami's win on Sunday means that Buffalo needs to win here to stay one game up on the Dolphins. As for San Francisco, the defending NFC champs are currently in last place in the NFC West, although a win here would move them to 6-6 and into a tie with Arizona and Minnesota, just ONE game behind 7-5 Tampa Bay, which currently holds the NFC's final wild card spot.

Buffalo enters the contest having won FOUR of five, with the lone loss having come at Arizona in Week 10 with what was an almost UNBELIEVABLE ending! The Bills got a much-needed bye in Week 11 Bills and returned in Week 12 with a 27-17 home win over Los Angeles Chargers behind a running and a passing TD from QB Josh Allen and a trick-play score on a 20-yard pass from Cole Beasley to fellow WR Gabriel Davis. Josh Allen is in his third season. He made great strides in his second season (2019) and began the current season as just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. He's come into his own in 2020, completing 68.8% for 3,028 yards with 22 TDs and eight INTs, while rushing for 311 yards with six TDs. His QB rating was 67.9 in his rookie season, 85.3 in 2019 and it's up to 102.3 in 2020. More importantly, he has the Bills at 8-3, putting them in position to capture their first division title since 1995. Allen doesn't get much support from his running game either, as the Bills are averaging just 10.4 YPG on the ground (21st). However, the addition of WR Diggs has been HUGE, as he leads the team with 80 catches (four TDs). Fellow WR Beasley, who has averaged 59 catches per season the last five, has 57 through 11 games (on pace for 83). Buffalo's defense allowed just 16.2 PPG last season (2nd to only New England) on 298.3 YPG (3rd) but this season is allowing 25.6 PPG (about 10 points higher), on 373.1 YPG (about 75 yards more per game).

The 49ers have struggled all season with significant injuries and Nick Mullens (67.5% for 1,642 yards with six TDs and seven INTs) will again get the start at QB with Jimmy G still sidelined. RB Mostert (772 yards on 5.6 YPC with eight TDs) has played just five games (346 yards), leaving McKinnon as the "best of the rest" with 315 yards on 3.9 YPC but does have five TDs and 27 catches. San Francisco upset the Rams 23-20 last Sunday and the good news was Mostert returned and WR Samuel returned to catch 11 passes for 133 yards but TE Kittle (37 catches leads the team despite him playing just six games) remains sidelined. The 49ers are averaging only 112.0 YPG on the ground (averaged 141.0 LY) and with Mullens and injuries to their receiving corps, are averaging only 23.7 PPG, down from 29.9 PPG last season.

The Bills have steadily improved under head coach Sean McDermott and want to make sure they DON'T repeat last season 2-3 finish, when they were also 8-3 through 11 games. Buffalo controls its own destiny in the AFC East and after this game, has only one "sure win" in its four remaining games (Denver). The other three are against Pittsburgh (11-0), New England (has won FIVE of six) and Miami. "Big game" for the Bills and a win would be "just desserts" coming in the same stadium they lost that heartbreaker to the Cardinals!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC Game of the Year is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET.

The 5-6 New England Patriots have won the AFC East 11 straight years (17 of the last 19) and last had a losing season back in 2000, going 5-11 in Bill Belichick's first season as the Pats' head coach. The Patriots visit LA on Sunday for a game with the 3-8 LA Chargers, having won THREE of their last four to get them to within one game of .500. The contest marks the first of a three-game road trip beginning with Chargers, then staying in LA for a Thursday night game with Rams in Week 14 and finishing up with a game at Miami in Week 15. "We are not where we need to be or want to be," said Belichick. "[A fast start] will be important this week. It's important every week."

The Chargers will take the field having lost FOUR of their last five to fall to 3-8 in what was expected to be a rebuilding year. In fact, the matchup will be the first between the Patriots and Chargers NOT to feature either Tom Brady or Philip Rivers at QB since 1997. Brady famously left New England after 20 years and Rivers left the Chargers after 16 year to sign with the Colts.

New England was counting on former MVP Cam Newton to lead the offense but has just FOUR touchdown passes in 266 attempts with nine INTs. He does have 387 rushing yards (9 TDs) for a running game that ranks fifth by averaging 149.6 YPG on the ground. However, the team's receiving corps is a pathetic group. Edleman is out with an injury (had just 21 catches after six games), while WRs Byrd and Meyers have 71 combined catches and just one TD reception. New England's defense ranked first in the NFL in points allowed (14.1 PPG) and total defense (275.0 YPG) but this season the Pats are allowing 23.2 PPG (that's NINE more per game) on 352.5 YPG.

The Chargers lost Rivers but have found a "franchise" QB in Justin Herbert. He's completing 66.9% for 3,015 yards with 23 TDs and seven TDs (110.9 QB rating). WR Allen is having another brilliant season with 85 catches and seven TDs plus TE Henry has 48 catches with three TDs. The running game is no better than average (117.2 YPG ranks 11th) but the return of Austin Ekeler last week is GREAT news. He ran for 557 yards (3 TDs) and caught 92 passes (8 TDs) last season and last Sunday at Buffalo ran for 44 yards and caught 11 passes for 85 yards. The Chargers are allowing 27.3 PPG (25th) but a more modest 342.9 YPG (12th).

The Chargers have blown double digit leads on a regular basis but I like them here vs the Pats. Yes, the Pats have won three of four but in five road games in 2020, they are 1-4 SU with their LONE win coming against 0-11 Jets, game game the Pats trailed 27-17 in the fourth quarter before winning 30-27 on a 51-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock.

Methinks the Pats have a VERY good chance of a losing season!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Phi Eagles at 4:25 ET.

My 9* Division Game of the Month (NFC West) is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET.

Arizona, the LA Rams and Seattle were all 6-3 and tied atop the NFC West entering Week 11. Seattle is currently 8-3 but the Rams (7-4) and the Cards (6-5) have fallen off the pace, as they square off in a critical game at Glendale, Az on Sunday. The Rams fell out of a first-place tie with the Seahawks on Sunday after a last-second 23-20 home defeat to the San Francisco 49ers, while the Cardinals fell two games off the pace after they lost 20-17 at the New England Patriots, also on a last-second FG. Catching Seattle will be tough (Seahawks have a very easy schedule ahead) but the loser of this game will really hurt its wild card chances.

Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing for 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for around 4,400 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 16-10 (QB rating of 92.7). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 124.6 YPG (ranks 9th) this season. Henderson (510 yards on 4.3 YPC with four TDs) and Brown (371 yards on 4.3 YPC and five TDs) have shared the workload. WRs Kupp (66 catches) and Woods (61) plus the TE duo of Higbee and Everett have combined for 56 catches and four TDs. Led by two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Los Angeles ranks fourth in scoring defense (19.5 PPG) and second in total defense (296.7 YPG).

Kyler Murray has thrown for 2,814 yards with 19 TDs and nine INTs. He's also run for 650 yards (6.7 YPC) with 10 TDs. RB Kenyan Drake is turning into a solid player, rushing for 719 yards (4.3 YPC) and seven TDs. Future HOF Fitzgerald may have 43 catches but he's averaging only 7.8 YPC without a TD. Hopkins is now the team's "go-to" WR with 77 catches, with Kirk catching 34 passes with six TDs.

However, here's the rub. The Cardinals have lost three of their last four games and are a successful Hail Mary pass from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins away from being on a four-game losing streak. Opponents have started to contain Murray's passing ability with blitzes and have stifled his running ability by focusing on him rather than the backs on handoff zone-reads. The Rams defense is surely capable of doing the same. Speaking of defense, when the Cards beat the 49ers back on Oct 25, they entered that game with their defense allowing just 18.7 PPG. However, including that 34-31 win in OT, the Arizona defense has allowed 29.2 PPG over its last five games.

Jared Goff lost a fumble in Sunday's defeat to the 49ers and threw TWO interceptions, one which was returned for a TD. After the game, head coach Sean McVay said his quarterback has to take better care of the football. As for Goff, he responded, "I'm a big boy," he said. "I can handle it." Goff shouldn't lack for confidence, as this series has clearly been one-sided over the last three years with the Rams going a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS. Why not a 'Lucky 7' in a row?

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET.

The New Orleans Saints opened the 2020 season with a 34-23 home win over Tom Brady and the Bucs but then lost in Las Vegas to the Raiders and at home to the Packers to fall to 1-2. However, the Saints have won EIGHT in a row since, including the last two with Taysom Hill filling at QB for the injured Drew Brees. The Saints now own a 2 1/2-game lead over Tampa Bay atop the NFC South and a one-game lead over Green Bay atop the NFC. The Falcons opened the season 0-5, which led to the firing of head coach Dan Quinn. Raheem Morris has been named interim head coach and the Falcons have gone 4-2, after routing the Raiders 43-3 last Sunday.

These two teams just met in New Orleans in Week 11 with the Saints winning 24-9 in Hill's first career start at QB. Hill has yet to throw TD pass but has run for 93 yards in his two starts with two rushing TDs in each contest. RB Kamara is one of the NFL's most versatile players, rushing for 585 yards (8 TDs) while catching 68 passes (4 TDs). Fellow RB Murray has 551 yards on the season, after gaining a season-high 124 yards at Denver last Sunday (scored two TDs). The Saints have always been known for their offense but after allowing 29.8 PPG in 2015 and 28.4 PPG in 2016, New Orleans has turned into a good defensive team. The Saints allowed 20.4 PPG in 2017, 22.1 in 2018 and 21.3 in 2019. This season, the Saints are allowing 20.5 PPG (5th) on 284.9 YPG, which ranks first in the NFL.

The Falcons have played well since the coaching change and if not for a TD pass by Detroit QB Stafford on the final play of the game in Week 7, the Falcons would be 5-1 under Morris. Ryan is on pace to throw for 4,500 yards and has 17 TDs and eight INTs. Gurley (610 yards on 3.7 YPC) has not given the running game the boost expected but he does have nine rushing TDs. Atlanta has a trio of good WRs in Ridley (54), Jones (45) and Gage (45) plus TE Hurst has 41 catches. The good news here is that WR Julio Jones and RB Todd Gurley hope to return Sunday after missing the game against Las Vegas.

Kudos to the New Orleans D and Hill's play at QB but the Saints are facing an Atlanta team with a strong revenge motive plus an offense led by Ryan, who in NO way resembles the QB 'nightmare' situation the Broncos served up last Sunday at Mile High. I really like the way Atlanta has played under Morris and the fact that the Falcons come in on a 6-1 ATS run as a NFC South home dog, doesn't hurt. Bow Wow!

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.

The Indianapolis Colts won a huge game 34-17 in Tennessee against the Titans back in Week 10 and followed in Week 11 with a 34-31 OT win at home over the Packers (trailed 28-14 at the half) but 'ran out of gas' last Sunday at home, when the Titans (behind Henry's 178 rushing yards and three TDs) crushed the Colt 45-26. The 7-4 Colts now trail the 8-3 Titans in the AFC South as they visit Houston to take on the Texans. The Texans entered the season having won FOUR of the previous five AFC titles but not much has gone right for Houston this season. The Texans crushed the sad-sack Lions 41-25 on Thanksgiving but Houston is just 4-7 on the season and the playoffs are hardly a serious likelihood.

The Colts signed QB Philip Rivers in the offseason as a FA and he's been solid. Rivers took over as the Chargers' starting QB in 2006 and over the next 14 seasons, started EVERY game, topping 3,000 passing yards in every one, including passing for over 4,000 yards 11 times (he's topped 4,000 in his last SEVEN seasons). He's on pace for another 4,000-yard season in 2020, as through 11 games he's got 2,978 yards. His completion rate of 67.3% is slightly above his career mark (64.8) and his QB rating of 93.9 is just below his career mark (95.0). Rookie RB Taylor (518 rushing yards / 3.8 YPC) has been a disappointment but fellow RB Hines leads the team with 44 catches. WRs Hilton (33 catches) and Pascal (32) are hardly special but the Indy defense, despite some recent issues, has been strong. The Colts are allowing 23.0 PPG (9th) and 311.8 YPG (5th).

Houston signed QB Deshaun Watson to a huge contract before the season and it's hard to blame the team's poor season on him. He's completing 68.9% for 3,2101 yards with 24 TDs and just five INTs. He enters this game without an interception in SIX straight games but the Texans are just 3-3 in those contests. No one really expected that Houston could play its way into the playoff picture but with WR Will Fuller V and cornerback Bradley Roby earning season-ending suspensions based on violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs, the Texan's slim hopes have 'left town!' Fuller was having the most productive season of his five-year career with 53 receptions, 879 yards and eight touchdowns. Replacing him will be all but impossible on the heels of the Texans losing WR Randall Cobb (38 catches / 3 TDs) to injury. The team's prospects are not helped by a defense allowing 27.0 PPG (23rd) on 409.5 YPG (30th).

These teams will meet again in Week 15 but I'm taking the Colts here, as they've covered SIX of their last seven matchups with the Texans, who have very little left to play for in 2020.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET.

Entering Week 11, the Cards, Rams and Seahawks all were 6-3, tied atop the NFC West. Meanwhile, the defending NFC West champion 49ers (not to mention the defending NFC champs), were just 4-6 and 'enjoying' their bye week. Seattle won 28-21 at home over Arizona on Thursday, moving to 7-3 and dropping the Cards to 6-4. The Rams were in Tampa for MNF against the Bucs and needed a win to stay tied with Seattle and did just that with a 27-24 win. The 49ers travel to LA's SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Ca on Sunday, with the Rams hoping to avenge a 24-16 loss at San Francisco back in Week 6. 

The 49ers have struggled all season with significant injuries and Nick Mullens (67.3% for 1,390 yards with six TDs and six INTs) will again get the start at QB with Jimmy G still sidelined. Garoppolo threw three TD passes in that Week 6 win, all to receivers who are currently injured (tight end George Kittle), trying to return from an injury (wide receiver Deebo Samuel), or attempting to get reinstated from the COVID-19 list (wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk). Garoppolo is currently on injured reserve himself, with a high-ankle sprain. RB Mostert (772 yards on 5.6 YPC with eight TDs) has played just four games (303 yards), leaving McKinnon as the "best of the rest" with 294 yards on 3.8 YPC but does have five TDs, The 49ers are averaging only 11.,0 YPG on the ground (averaged 141.0 LY) and I already noted the receiving woes. After averaging 29.9 PPG last season, the 49ers are averaging just 23.8 PPG (20th) in 2020. 

Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing for 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for just over 4,500 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 16-8 (QB rating of 95.5). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 124.5 YPG (4.2 YPC) this season. Henderson (491 yards on 4.5 YPC with four TDs) and Brown (367 yards on 4.4 YPC and five TDs) have shared the workload. Kupp had 11 catches vs Tampa (64 on the season) and Woods had 12 catches (54 on the season) plus the TE duo of Higbee and Everett have combined for 53 catches and four TDs. Led by two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Los Angeles ranks second in scoring defense (19.2 PPG) and  1st in total defense (291.9 YPG). Goff came up HUGE in outplaying Brady on MNF (376 passing yards with three TDs) and enters this contest with THREE consecutive 300-yard games. As for the Rams D, it  recorded six sacks and two interceptions against Seattle's Russell Wilson, before limiting Tampa Bay's Tom Brady to just 216 passing yards with two interceptions. Hard to see them NOT containing Nick Mullens.

The Rams should be primed to break a three-game losing streak to the 49ers and why shouldn't they win here at SoFi Stadium, where they are 4-0 (3-1 ATS), while holding opponents to just 13.0 PPG. 

Good luck...Larry    

My 10* Signature LEGEND Play is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The Carolina Panthers ended a five-game slide with a 20-0 win last Sunday against the Lions (win doesn't mean much after Detroit's Thanksgiving effort), while the Minnesota Vikings saw their three-game winning streak end with a last-minute 31-28 loss to the Cowboys (looks even worse off Dallas' Thanksgiving effort). The 4-7 Panthers travel to the 4-6 Vikings for a Sunday game between two teams not expecting to be playing postseason football in 2020. However, there is a good storyline to this contest, as Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater has been cleared to play (he was a full participant in practice on Wednesday). This will mark his first start against his former team since he suffered a horrific left knee injury during the Vikings' 2016 training camp. The bad news for Carolina is that although RB Christian McCaffrey returned to practice Wednesday after missing the past two games with a shoulder injury, head coach Matt Rhule doesn't expect his star RB to play against the Vikings.

Bridgewater missed Carolina's 20-0 win last Sunday but despite the team's poor season, he's completed 72.1% for 2,552 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. However, with McCaffrey playing only three games, Carolina's running game has NOT given Bridgewater much help, averaging only 106.4 YPG (21st). RB Davis has a modest 449 rushing yards but does help the passing game, as he's tied for second on the team with 49 catches, matching WR Samuel. Samuel averages just 9.1 YPC but WRs Anderson (team-leading 71 catches) and Moore (46 catches / 18.8 YPC / 4 TDs) have had good seasons. Carolina's shutout last week was its first in FIVE years but the D has been middle-of-the-pack all season,  allowing 24.7 PPG to rank 15th (more later).

Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikings to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. 2020 is destined to follow the same script. Minnesota had won three straight games plus covered SIX of seven before its loss to the sad-sack Cowboys. RB Dalvin Cook ran for 115 yards, the FIFTH time he had done so in his last seven contests. Cook now leads the NFL with 1,069 rushing yards on 5.3 YPC with 13 TDs. In his last seven games, he's averaged 136.6 YPG on the ground while scoring 10 of his 13 rushing TDs on the season. QB Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. He has NOT been that good this year but is still completing 66.9% for 2,461 yards with 20 TDs and 11 INTs (102.7 QB rating). It was NOT good news that WR Thielen (49 catches  with 11 TDs) was placed on the COVID-19 list on Monday but he has yet to be ruled out for Sunday. He's been a mentor to rookie WR Jefferson, who has 45 catches with a team high 18.8 YPC average and four TDs. Both TEs contribute, as Rudolph and Smith (combined 36 catches) but Smith may miss a second straight game. The problem all season has been a Minnesota defense which is allowing 27.8 PPG.

Zimmer's a defensive coach and after he saw his young defense help lead the team to three straight wins by allowing 18.3 PPG, the 'stop unit' reverted to its previous form against the Cowboys. "I thought we were getting better defensively after the last three weeks but that didn't show against Dallas," coach Mike Zimmer said. However, speaking of defenses, I don't put too much credence in the Panthers' shutout of the Lions. Why? It's pretty simple. It was an amazing turnaround for a Panthers defense which had allowed 32.7 PPG over the team's previous four contests in which Carolina had forced just TWO punts! Thielen or no Thielen, the Vikings have a balanced offense that has scored 28 or more points in SIX of its 10 games in 2020. The Vikings enter this contest on a 23-11-3 ATS  run as a home favorite and Bridgewater's "return to Minnesota" ends badly for him and the Panthers.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC 'Least' Battle 4 First is on the Dal Cowboys at 4:30 ET.

Dallas plays its annual Thanksgiving Day game in 2020 against Washington and while both teams come in a poor 3-7 on the season, the winner will own first place in the cynically-named "NFC Least!" That is until Monday, when the 3-6-1 Eagles will have a chance to regain the division lead if they can upset the Seahawks. Both Teams will take the field with their Opening Day starter at QB on the sidelines.

Washington opened the season with Dwayne Haskins at QB, before he lost his job to Kyle Allen. Then Allen was replaced in a Week 9 game against the Giants by Alex Smith, who was the team's former starter before a brutal leg injury almost ended his career and even his life! Smith is without a doubt one of NFL 2020's great "feel-good" stories. Smith passed for 325 yards in relief of Allen in that 23-20 loss vs the Giants but threw THREE interceptions. He then passed for 390 yards in a 30-27 loss to the Lions the following week but just FOUR days after the second anniversary of an injury that threatened his life (this past Sunday), Smith led Washington to a 20-9 win over Cincinnati. Smith threw for just 166 yards vs the Bengals (zero TDs and zero INTs) but the "W" had to feel VERY good! Washington is averaging just 99.1 YPG on the ground but rookie Antonio Gibson ran for 94 yards last week (note: he had season-high 128 in the team's 25-3 over Dallas in Week 7) and now has 530 yards on the season with eight TDs (he also has 27 catches). WR Terry McLaurin is on pace for close to 100 catches (62 catches / 14.0 YPC / 3 TDs), TE Thomas has 30 catches (3 TDs) and RB McKissic has added 44 receptions. The Washington defense is allowing 315.8 YPG (6th-best) and a modest 22.7 PPG.

Dallas has a 'feel good" story of its own last Sunday, as Andy Dalton had three TD passes, including the game-winner with 1:37 left in the game, as the Cowboys snapped a four-game losing streak with a 31-28 win at Minnesota (Vikings entered on a three-game winning streak plus a 6-1 ATS run). It was Dalton's first game since Oct 25, when Washington linebacker Jon Bostic knocked him out of a 25-3 loss in the third quarter with a late hit to the helmet as Dalton slid to end a scramble. A battle with COVID-19 kept Dalton on the sidelines as Dallas continued to cycle through third and fourth-string quarterbacks with little success. The Cowboys offense that shriveled up and died when Dak Prescott ended his season with a frightening leg injury in Week 5. Prescott had averaged over 400 YPG passing through four weeks, with nine TDs and three INTs. However, Dallas finally displayed a balanced offense, as Elliott (675 yards on 3.9 YPC with 5 TDs) ran for more than 100 yards (103) for the first time all season with Dallas running for 180 yards, while passing for 196. More importantly, the team's four TDs touchdowns were TWICE as many as the Cowboys had produced during their four-game skid. Dalton has plenty of targets, with WRs like Cooper (65 catches / 2 TDs), Rookie Lamb (48 catches / 4 TDs) and Gallup (31 catches / team-high 16.0 YPC) plus TE Schultz (39 catches / 3 TDs).

Dallas MUST play better defense, as the Cowboys are allowing an NFL-high 31.8 PPG but Washington enters on a six-game road losing streak (0-4 in 2020) and is just 2-10 on the road since the start of 2019. Let me add that Washington has won just ONE of its last eight Thanksgiving games with Dallas and for all its recent woes, the Cowboys are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 NFC East contests. Dallas gets some revenge from that Week 7 loss in Washington and moves to 4-7, before serving as Seattle 'cheerleaders' Monday night in Philly.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the TB Bucs at 8:15 ET.

The 6-3 Los Angeles Rams need a win to keep pace with the 7-3 Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West and the 7-3 Tampa Bay Bucs need a win to stay just a half-game back of the 8-2 Saints in the NFC South. Tampa Bay has a lot of prime-time exposure with the addition of TB-12 but tonight's game "main attraction" could be two of the NFL's best defenses. Led by  two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald (nine sacks), Los Angeles ranks second in both scoring defense (18.7 PPG) and total defense (296.4 YPG), while also ranking third in passing defense (199.7 YPG) and fifth in rushing defense (96.8 YPG). Tampa Bay's "stop unit" ain't bad themselves, ranking first in rushing defense (76.6 YPG) and third in total defense (300.3 YPG). Tampa Bay is eighth in scoring defense (22.6 PPG) and ninth in passing defense (223.7 YPG).

Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing fir 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for just over 4,300 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 13-6 (QB rating of 94.9). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 134.2 YPG (4.3 YPC) this season. Henderson (486 yards on 4.8 YPC with four TDs) and Brown (347 yards on 4.3 YPC and five TDs) have shared the workload. Kupp (53 catches / 2 TDs) and Woods (42 catches / 4 TDs) are quality WRs and the TE duo of Higbee and Everett have combined for 45 catches and four TDs.

Brady has completed 66.0% for 2,739 yards with 23 TDs and seven INTs and RB Jones has 730 rushing yards on 5.1 YPC on 5.1 YPC with five TDs, after running for a career-high 192 yards last Sunday. Brady has plenty of targets, in WRs Evans (40 catches / 8 TDs) and Miller (27 catches / 2 TDs) and TE Gronk (29 catches / 4 TDs), who has 17 catches and all four TDs in his last five games. Then there has been the addition of the controversial Antonio Brown (10 catches in two games), who when "not in trouble," caught 100-plus passes for six consecutive seasons for Pittsburgh (2013-18) with 67 TD receptions!

Both teams are hoping to win their respective divisions but the winner of this game also takes a step toward a wild card spot. The Bucs entered the week trailing the Saints by a half game in the NFC South but realistically it’s a game and a half because New Orleans owns the first head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0 this season vs Tampa). Speaking of those two games with the Saints, Brady has thrown FIVE of his seven INTs on the season in them, while his TD/INT ratio in Tampa Bay's other eight games is 21-2, with the Bucs going 7-1. Yes, the Bucs were embarrassed by the Saints at home but they are 3-0 in their other three home games, averaging 35.7 PPG. The Bucs already have matched their win total from 2019, but that was never the goal. You don’t sign a 43-year-old Brady, trade for tight end Rob Gronkowski and add receiver Antonio Brown, and running backs Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy as free agents unless it’s Super Bowl or bust. Lay the points with Tampa Bay.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Rivalry Rout is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

SNF features a classic AFL rivalry, the Chiefs and Raiders. The defending champs are 8-1 and are coming off a bye to visit Las Vegas, where they will take on the 6-3 Raiders. The Raiders shocked the Chiefs 40-32 at Kansas City back in Week 5, as 11-point underdogs. The Raiders got crushed 45-20 at home by the Bucs in their next game but enter this contest on a 3-0 SU & ATS run. Mahomes is completing 66.9% for 2,687 yards with 25 TDs and just one INT (115.9 QB rating) but Carr is not far behind, completing 69.3% for 2,56 yards with 16 TDs and just two INTs (107.4 QB rating).

However, hanging over the game is COVID-19 issues. This paragraph is copied directly from a game preview to give the info its proper respect. The Raiders had their Oct 25 prime time game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers shifted to the afternoon when offensive tackle Trent Brown came down with the virus and the entire starting offensive line was forced into quarantine until the morning of the game because of their high-risk contact with Brown. Tampa Bay cruised to a 45-20 victory. Following a positive test by starting defensive end Clelin Ferrell on Tuesday, seven more Raiders defensive players were put on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday - safety Johnathan Abram, defensive tackles Maliek Collins, Johnathan Hankins and Kendal Vickers, defensive back Isaiah Johnson, defensive end Arden Key and practice squad defensive end David Irving. They join safety Lamarcus Joyner, previously identified as a close contact of Ferrell, Brown and linebacker Cory Littleton, who was placed on the list last week. Ferrell is likely out for Sunday night's game as is Brown, who isn't expected back until next week. But the other players will be eligible to play Sunday, as long as they continue to test negative. Kansas City has its own COVID-19 issues with both starting offensive tackles, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, as well as backup Martinas Rankin going on the COVID list earlier this week after being in close contact with someone who tested positive. All could play Sunday, barring a positive test result.

As noted above, Mahomes is having a superb season. Rookie RB Edwards-Helaire 'exploded' on the scene in Week 1 with 138 yards but he's had just one 100-yard game since. He has 586 yards on 4.7 YPC with two TDs on the season. The KC offense revolves around Mahomes and his spectacular group of receivers. Kelce is the best TE in the game and leads with 58 catches and six TDs. WR Hill is a game-changer/game-breaker with 44 catches and nine TDs (one rushing TD, as well). The WR trio of Hardeman, Watkins and Robinson have combined for 67 catches and five TDs. On the defensive side of the ball, KC's improvement helped them win the Super Bowl last season and make them one of the favorites to possibly win again in 2020. KC allowed 405.5 YPG (second-worst in the NFL) in 2018, while allowing 26.3 PPG. However, KC allowed just 19.3 PPG in 2019 and here in 2020, is allowing 20.3 PPG.

Carr's having a career-season and second-year RB Josh Jacobs has proven his rookie season was no fluke (1,150 yards on 4.8 YPC with 7 TDs in 13 games). Jacobs may be averaging a modest 3.8 YPC but he's run for 700 yards with eight TDs plus has 23 catches (just 20 all of last season). TE Waller may not be Kelce (just yet, anyway) but he has 53 catches and four TDs. WR Renfrow has 29 catches but the team's "big play" receiver is Agholor who has made his 18 catches count, averaging 19.7 YPC with five TDs.

Here's the rub. Gruden's defense has allowed 26.8 PPG on the season. Ferrell is likely out for Sunday night's game as is Brown, who isn't expected back until next week. The other players will be eligible to play Sunday, as long as they continue to test negative. However, those players will be limited to virtual practices and meetings until then and won't be allowed on the practice field together. Not exactly the best way to get your defense prepared for reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes and Co. KC has a HUGE "revenge motive" from the Raiders' 40-32 in their first meeting on back on Oct 11, the team's LONE loss in its last 18 games (including the postseason) in 18 games (17-1) plus then there is ONE more important stat. KC head coach Andy Reid is 18-3 SU in regular-season games after a bye during his 22 seasons as a head coach! Also, despite the Raiders' win at KC earlier this season, they've won just TWO of their last 11 against the Chiefs since 2015. One closing thought. Yes, KC has a 'number' to cover but the well-rested Chiefs check in on a 23-8 ATS run as an away favorite. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner of the Month is on the Green Bay Packers at 4:25 ET.

The Packers opened the season 4-0 SU & ATS and while it hasn't been a smooth ride, Green Bay 7-2 is tied with New Orleans for the NFC' best record (note: San Francisco, Green Bay and New Orleans were all 13-3 last season, with the 49ers and Packers getting the No. 1 and No, 2 seeds, respectively due to tiebreakers). QB Aaron Rodgers has helped steer the Packers, despite various injuries to some of the team's most reliable playmakers. The Colts made a big 'splash' in the offseason by singing Philip Rivers as a free agent but the key to Indy's 6-3 record (tied with Tennessee atop the AFC South) has been a defense that ranks first in total yards (290.4 per game) and 4th in scoring (19.7 PPG). These two first place clubs square off Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Rodgers is again at "the top of his game," completing 67.8% for 2,578 yards for 2,578 yards with 26 TDs and just three INTs (116.4 QB rating). RB Jones has dealt with injuries (he's missed two games) but he has 493 rushing yards on 4.8 YPC with five TDs, while catching 28 passes with two more TDs. WR Davante Adams missed practice Wednesday after tweaking a previously balky ankle in a Week 10 home win against Jacksonville, but indications are he will play against the Colts. In his seven games he's caught 61 balls with nine TDs on the season, after 38 catches with seven TDs in his last four games. Fellow WR Valdez-Scantling has a modest 22 catches (he hasn't missed a game) but he's averaging 21.0 YPC with four TDs. TE Tonyan has 27 catches and five TDs. Green Bay is averaging 30.8 PPG, with only Seattle and KC (each at 31.8 PPG) scoring more. The defense has been middle-of-the-pack, allowing 24.9 PPG.

Rivers has provided a steady hand at QB but while he's completing 68.7% for 2,395 yards but his TD/INT ratio is a modest 11-7. Big things were expected from Wisconsin rookie Jonathan Taylor but he's got a modest 428 rushing yards on 3.8 YPC with four TDs. The Indy running game is averaging only 105.8 YPG on 3.8 YPC. Fellow RB Hines has just 177 yards on the ground but leads the team with 33 catches and with four TD receptions. WR Hilton has been banged up on-and-off this season and  checks in with just 26 catches and not a single TD catch. WR Pascal has 28 catches (2 TDs) and TE Alie-Cox adds 20 catches and two TDs. As noted above, the Colts are where they are because of their D (see above for a reminder).

The Colts have beaten Green Bay's fellow NFC North 'partners' (Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota) but Green Bay is a 'horse of a different color!' The Packers are off an uninspiring 24-20 over hapless Jacksonville but that so-so effort should have them VERY focused on this game. Green Bay can 'sniff' the NFC's No. 1 seed, as after the Colts, Green Bay faces just ONE team with a current winning record (Titans in Week 16) over its final six games. As for the Colts, they come off a HUGE win at Tennessee in Week 10, moving them into a tie atop the AFC South with the Titans. Indy's defense gets a real test against Rodgers and Co plus just could be peeking ahead to next week's home game with the Titans. I view this as the perfect situation for a Green By win. That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insiders is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

The New Orleans Saints have won SIX in a row and at 7-2, lead the 7-3 Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFC South by just a half-game. However, they own the important tiebreaker, having beaten the Bucs in BOTH regular meetings, including a 38-3 beatdown at Tampa in Week 9. It's 'lucky' Week 11 but the Saints will be without QB Drew Brees for an indefinite period of time due to rib and lung injuries. Visiting New Orleans on Sunday will be the 3-6 Atlanta Falcons, who are coming off a bye week and have turned things around after a 0-5 start with a 3-1 record under interim head coach Raheem Morris. This contest marks the first of two matchups between the Falcons and Saints in a three-week span, as the Saints will visit Atlanta for a Week 13 game.

When Atlanta lost 23-16 at home to Carolina to fall to 0-5, head coach Dan Quinn was fired (should have been gone right after that INCREDIBLE Super Bowl collapse). The Falcons named Raheem Morris as interim head coach and the Falcons are 3-1 but with ANY luck, would be 4-0 (lost to Detroit on the game's final play). Matt Ryan will be close to 5,000 passing yards once again, as he's completing 67.2% for 2,746yards with 15 TDs and five INTs. Third-year WR Ridley is having an excellent season (43 catches / 15.3 YPC / 6 TDs) but he was limited in practice Wednesday because of a foot injury. The good news is that superstar WR Julio Jones is rejuvenated (and healthy), catching 28 balls for an average of 106.2 YPG over the last four games  The signing of RB Todd Gurley has NOT improved the running game as much as expected. He does have 584 yards but has averaged just 3.7 YPC. Still, his nine TDs through nine games "ain't bad!" The Atlanta defense has been a problem all season and can't be counted on, allowing 27.9 PPG on 410.0 YPG.

Many will remember that the Saints went 5-0 with Teddy Bridgewater at QB in 2019 while Brees recovered from thumb surgery. Former Tampa Bay starter Jameis Winston is expected to replace Brees, although Taysom Hill could also take some snaps from center in addition to his usual reps at a variety of skill positions. Winston completed 6 of 10 passes for 63 yards after Brees went down last Sunday, while Hill rushed eight times for 45 yards (he did lose a fumble). Whichever QB is in the game, "Job One" is to get the ball to RB Alvin Kamara, who is second in the NFL in yards from scrimmage. Kamara has 486 yards rushing (4.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and is tied for second in the NFL with 67 receptions (Diggs leads with 73 but has played one more game) plus has four TD receptions. Brees' injury last Sunday was the "bad news" but the "good news" was that WR Michael Thomas (149 catches last season, an NFL record) played  for the second straight week. Let's NOT forget the New Orleans defense, which is allowing 308.2 YPG (more than 100 YPG less than Atlanta's), to rank 4th in the league.

Of course, I'd prefer a healthy Brees but I'm NOT sure I'd play the Saints laying more than a TD (the likely line with Brees at QB). Winston has NEVER been a favorite of mine but he's no backup. He started 70 games the last five seasons with the Bucs and I'm convinced Payton will be able to use Hill's talents in a complementary role. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC North Game of the Year is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.

Baltimore was just 2-2 through the first four games of the 2019 season but the Ravens would win their final 12 games, covering NINE of their last 10. QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP, posting a 113.3 QB rating (36-6 ratio) while rushing for 1,206 yards (6.9 YPC / 7 TDs), which set a single-record for QBs. Baltimore set a single season record for team rushing yards and became the first team since at least 1950 to average 200-plus pass YPG (201.6) and 200-plus rush YPG (206) in the same season. The D was not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG). However, the Ravens were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs last season, losing 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites.

Ryan Tannehill took over at QB for Mariota midway through the 2019 season and was a steady hand during the Titans' strong regular season finish and their playoff run. That playoff run saw them win at New England and Baltimore before losing at KC in the AFC championship game. However, most thought of Tannehill as little more than a "game-manager," with the Tennessee offense relying on RB Derrick Henry. That's changed in 2020, as Tannehill has completed 64.8% for 2,128 yards with 20 TDs and three INTs (106.9 QB rating). Henry is having another strong season, running for 946 yards on 4.7 YPC with eight TDs. That's all well and fine but after opening 5-0, the Titans have lost THREE of their last four. While Tannehill's numbers on the season remain very good, he's barely completed 50% of his passes (25 of 48) for an average of just 152.5 YPG in the team's last two games. He had completed 67.4% of his passes in his first seven games, averaging 244.0 YPG through the air. The Tennessee defense is also allowing almost SIX points per game more than last season, 26.1-to-20.7.

The Ravens opened the season 5-1, with their lone loss coming to the defending champion Chiefs. However, Baltimore has has lost TWO of its last three, falling at home to Pittsburgh 28-24 in Week 8 and 23-17 at New England in Week 10. Jackson is playing well, completing 64.0% for 1,762 yards with 14 TDs and five INTs, while again leading the team in rushing with 524 yards on 5.8 YPC with three TDs. The running game is averaging a healthy 164.0 YPG but that's down from the team's NFL record 206.0 YPG last season, RB Ingram joined Jackson as a 1,000-yard rusher in 2019 but he has just 230 yards so far this season, as Edwards (370 yards) and Dobbins (310 yards) join him as a rotating three-back attack. WR Brown has 32 catches, while the trio of Snead, Boykin and Duvernoy have combined for 53 catches. TE Andrews has a team-highs in catches (33) and TD receptions (six). The Baltimore D is allowing  18.3 PPG (17.6 LY) on 323.0 YPG (330.6 LY).

The Ravens HAVE to win this one and the extra bonus of "playoff revenge" makes me like the play even more. Let me review that playoff game from last year. Baltimore outgained Tennessee 530-to-300 in yards and 29-15 in FDs. Jackson passed for 365 yards and ran for 143 but coughed up THREE turnovers and was 0 of 4 on fourth down attempts. If the Ravens can't win here, their season is effectively over.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET.

The NFC West has a three-way tie at the top between the Cards, Rams and Seahawks (all are 6-3).The Cards and Seahawks square off in Seattle and barring a tie, one will move to 7-3. The Rams play Monday night in Tampa against the Bucs, making their path to 7-3 a real test. The Cardinals overcame a 10-point fourth quarter deficit back in Week 7 in a SNF matchup at home, to edge the Seahawks 37-34 on a Zane Gonzalez 48-yard FG with 15 seconds remaining in OT (note: Gonzalez had previously kicked a 44-yarder as time expired in regulation). The loss was Seattle's first of the season (after opening 5-0) and the Seahawks have gone to drop two of their next three games, as well. Arizona's win over Seattle was the team's THIRD in a row and after a bye in Week 8, the Cards have lost a close one (34-31 to Miami) and won a close one (32-30 over Buffalo), all at home. 

I'm sure ALL are aware that Arizona's win over Buffalo belongs in the 'miracle' category and the Cards head to Seattle off THREE straight games (2-1) decided by three, three and two points. QB Kyler Murray is having a superb 'sophomore' season, completing 68.2% for 2,375 yards with 17 TDs and eight INTs. He's also the Cards' leading rusher with 604 yards on 6.9 YPC with 10 rushing TDs! Kenyon Drake (612 yards on 4.5 YPC with four TDs) has developed into a dependable RB and the Cards have now edged ahead of the Ravens to own the NFL's top rushing offense at 168.9 YPG (5.3 YPC).  Fitzgerald is heading to the HOF but while he has 35 catches, he's averaging only 7.8 YPC and has yet to snare a TD pass. Hopkins caught the game-winner against the Bills and leads the team with 67 receptions (four TDs). Fellow WR Kirk has a modest 27 catches but leads the team with six TD grabs. Arizona's defense allowed just 18.7 PPG through its first six games but enters this contest having allowed 30-plus points in each of its last three (32.7 per).

Defense has been a season-long problem for Seattle, as it is allowing a league-high 448.3 YPG and almost 30 PPG (29.6). However, led by Russell Wilson's MVP-caliber play (19 TD passes and just three INTs), Seattle got off to a 5-0 start. However, in Seattle's recent 1-3 slide, Wilson had four TDs and zero INTs in Seattle lone win in that span, while passing for only five TDs against seven INTs in the three losses. He didn't throw a TD pass in last week's loss at the Rams (had two INTs), just the second time since the start of the 2019 season in which he went without a TD pass in a game (the other time was also against the Rams, in a 28-12 road loss last season). However, he is completing 69.8% for 2,789 yards with 28 TDs and 10 INTs on the season (110.5 QB rating). Wilson is also the team's leading rusher (325 yards on 7.2 YPC) but the Seahawks have been without their top two RBs, Chris Carson (mid-foot sprain) and Carlos Hyde (hamstring), for the past three games. Carson remains out but Hyde has returned to practice on a limited basis. Wilson has a 'dynamic duo' in WRs Lockett (58 catches with six TDs) and Metcalf (45 catches on 18.1 YPC with eight TDs).

The Cards are on the road for the first time since Week 6 (three home games and a bye week), while this marks Seattle's ONLY home game in a four-week span. What's more, after leading the division since Week 1, Seattle would fall from atop it for the first time this season with a loss. I realize Seattle has RB issues (it has all season) but I'm not sure why Seattle is favored here at home, by pretty much the same as it was in Arizona! A win keeps Seattle atop the NFC West (all by itself if Tampa Bay can beat the Rams) plus Seattle's next four opponents (Philadelphia, the NYG, the NYJ and Washington) have  a combined 8-28-1 record in 2020. CenturyLink Stadium doesn't offer the same kind of home field edge it did in 'normal' times but Seattle is still a perfect 4-0 at home in 2020, averaging 34.3 PPG. That's almost the exact point total the Cards' defense has allowed (see above) in its last three games.  Don't be fooled by Arizona's 3-1 road record in 2020, as its opponents have been San Francisco, Carolina, the NY Jets and Dallas, teams with a combined record of 9-29! Lay the 'cheap' price!

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* MNF Magic play (NFC North Game of the Month) is on the Chi Bears at 8:15 ET.

Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikings to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. A non-postseason year in 2020 will NOT be acceptable but the Vikings will be hard-pressed to avoid that from happening. The Chicago Bears hired John Fox as head coach in 2015 and he had three straight losing seasons, going 3-13 in 2016 and 5-11 in 2017. That was enough and the Bears hired Mike Nagy on January 7, 2018, Nagy was one of six candidates for the Bears' job and sure seemed like the 'right choice,' as Chicago went 12-4 in his first season. The Bears fell to 8-8 last season but surprised by opening 3-0 and 5-1. However, they enter this contest off THREE straight losses.

The Vikings were manhandled by the Packers in Week 1 and after a 40-23 loss Week 6 to Atlanta, stood 1-5. However, the team's Week 7 bye seems to have rejuvenated the team, as Minnesota won 28-22 at Green Bay in Week 8 and then beat Detroit 34-20 at home in Week 9. QB Kirk Cousins connected on 13 of his 20 pass attempts for 220 yards and 3 TDs in the win over the Lions, while RB Dalvin Cook ran for 206 yards on just 22 carries with two TDs. Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. He's has NOT been that good this year, completing 65.6 percent for 1.855 yards. He has 15 TDs but 10 INTs, FOUR more than he had all last season. Dalvin Cook (858 yards on 6.0 YPC with 12 TDs), when healthy, is as good as any RB in the NFL. Cook has run for 369 yards (7.1 YC) for five TDs (plus one TD catch) in Minnesota's back-to-back wins. More on Cousins, Cook and Minnesota's defense in my 'closing argument.'

The Bears have used two QBs this season but with Trubisky sidelined with a shoulder injury, Foles is the current 'man.' He blows hot-and-cold but with RB Montgomery (472 yards) out with a concussion, he's thrown 93 passes the last two games (64 completions / 68.9%) for 607 yards with four TDs and just one INT. Chicago's best receiver, Allen Robinson (57 catches with three TDs) is listed as questionable but is expected to play. Fellow WRs Mooney and Miller have combined for 63 catches and four TDs, while TE Jimmy Graham looks 'young' again, with 35 catches and five TDs (had just 38 catches with Green Bay all of last season).

In closing, let's look defense, first. The Vikings are allowing 29.2 PPG on 417.9 YPG, while Chicago allows 21.1 PPG on 335.1 YPG. Chicago head coach Mike Nagy is a perfect 4-0 SU vs Minnesota in his first two seasons (1st of two meetings this season, tonight) and Kirk Cousins is 0-3 in three meetings with the Bears as a Viking (sat out meaningless Week 17 game in 2019), with Minnesota averaging a WOEFUL 12.0 PPG in those contests. There is no denying how good Cook can be but in Cousins' three losses vs the Bears, Cook has averaged a miniscule 28.7 YPG on the ground. Two last factoids. Cousins is 0-9 in his career on Monday nights, which is the worst record of any QB in NFL history! If that's not enough, how about the fact that Minnesota is a dismal 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games at Soldier Field? Not sure why there has been so much 'play' on Minnesota but I'm taking the home dog.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC West Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET.

The NFC West owns a collective 20-13 (.606) record, second to only the AFC North's mark of 21-10-1, plus it has the best point differential of any division at plus-144 (all four teams are in the plus category). The Los Angeles Rams spent last week on a bye and actually gained ground, as Seattle, Arizona, and San Francisco all lost. "It was a pretty solid bye week," Rams WR Cooper Kupp said. "They did us some favors there." The 5-3 Rams are within a game of the first-place Seahawks (6-2) as the teams get set to meet Sunday at SoFi Stadium.

Seattle opened the season 5-0 but has lost TWO of its last three, with Russell Wilson showing a 'human' side. He's completing 71.0% on the season for 2,541 yards for 2,818 yards with 28 TDs and 8 INTs (117.1 QB rating) but FIVE of his eight INTs on the season have come in the team's two losses. Seattle's run game (without Russell's 265 yards on 7.2 YPC) is very mediocre and what's more, the Seahawks have been without RBs Chris Carson (mid-foot sprain) and Carlos Hyde (hamstring) each of the past two weeks and it's uncertain if they'll return for this one. Then there is Seattle's defense, which has been a HUGE concern all season. Seattle ranks dead-last in allowing 455.8 YPG and is 30th of 32 teams in points allowed at 30.4 per game.

LA's Jared Goff is not having a great season but still completes 65.5% for 2,145 yards with 13 TDs and six INTs. He's got an excellent WR duo in Kupp (48 catches) and Woods (37 catches) plus a pair of TEs who have each caught 20 passes and combined for four TD grabs. The departure of RB Todd Gurley has not hurt a bit as in fact, the Rams averaged just 93.7 YPG rushing on 3.7 YPC last season, while this year's "RB by Committee" concept has produced 137.8 YPG on 4.4 YPC. Then there is the LA defense, which is allowing just 291.9 YPG (2nd-best) and more importantly, only 19.0 PPG (also 2nd-best)!

Seattle returns from a performance at Buffalo (allowed John Allen to throw for 415 yards and three TDs) and finds themselves on the road again here. This well-rested Rams team is on a 9-3-1 ATS run after a bye and is 3-0 at home in 2020, allowing just 12.0 PPG. Rams move into a first-place tie with the Seahawks after with win (will the Cards make it a three-way tie?).

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:05 ET.

Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years that ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, it seemed like the perfect opportunity for someone other than the Patriots to win the AFC East. Why not the Bills? Buffalo opened 4-0 but then lost B2B games at Tennessee and home to KC but enters Sunday's game off THREE straight wins, giving them a 7-2 record. Kliff Kingsbury coached six seasons at Texas Tech and was only 35-40 with three bowl appearances (Tech was 1-2). However, he found two NFL suitors in the Jets and Cards, choosing Arizona in January of 2019. His 'rookie' season did not go well, as the Cards finished 5-10-1. However, while Arizona saw its three-game winning streak end last Sunday against Miami, the Cards are 5-3 (tied with the Rams), just one game back of the 6-2 Seahawks.

Buffalo QB Josh Allen made great strides in his second season (2019) and began the current season as just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. He's been terrific so far, completing 68.9% for 2,587 yards with 19 TDs and just five INTs, while adding 241 rushing yards with five TDs. However, even with his help, the Bills are averaging only 100.3 YPG rushing on 3.9 YPC. The addition of WR Diggs has been HUGE, as he leads the team AND the NFL with 63 catches AND 813 receiving yards (three TDs). Fellow WR Beasley, who has averaged 59 catches per season the last five, has 44  through nine games (on pace for 78). Buffalo's defense allowed just 16.2 PPG last season (2nd to only New England) on 298.3 YPG (3rd) but this season is allowing 25.9 PPG (almost 10 points higher), on 36.59 YPG (about 67 yards more per game).

Arizona's defense is playing slightly better than Buffalo's, allowing 22,5 PPG on 370.1 YPG but it's unlikely that defense will win this one. Former Heisman winner Kyler Murray was solid as a rookie and has improved noticeably in 2020. He's completing 68.1% for 2,130 yards with 16 TDs and seven INTs. He's Arizona's leading rusher with 543 yards (7.1 YPC) and eight TDs. Drake (512 yards / 4.3 YPC / 4 TDs) has become a solid RB, allowing Arizona to average 162.9 YPG (2nd to Baltimore) on 5.2 YPC. Hopkins has 60 catches (tied for 2nd-most behind Diggs) and fellow WR Kirk has 23 catches but six TDs (17 catches and five TDs in his last four games).

Allen and Murray have quickly established themselves as two of the most dynamic young QBs in the NFL and both are coming off fabulous games, as Allen threw for 415 yards with four TDs (three passing) and Murray had 283 passing yards with three TDs and no INTs (150.5 QB rating was a career-best), while adding 106 rushing yards (9.6 YPC) and a fourth TD. As old friend Nick Bakay likes to say, "Advantage push!" Why I like Arizona here is that the Cards are off a disappointing three-point home loss to Miami (a game the team could have EASILY won), while the Bills are traveling off not only last week's big win over Seattle but the week before, the Bills edged the Pats 24-21, ending a SEVEN-game losing streak to their AFC East tormentors! Nick's a Buffalo guy but sorry, the Cards "get the cash!"

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET

The Raiders relocated to Las Vegas for the 2020 season, as Jon Gruden's second stint with the team entered its third season. The Raiders went 4-12 in Year One and then 7-9 last season. Will the third time be the charm? The now Las Vegas Raiders begin the second half of their season Sunday afternoon against the visiting Denver Broncos off back-to-back victories and at 5-3, are in the thick of the AFC wild card play 'picture' (catching 8-1 KC in the AFC West is a bit of a stretch). Denver opened the current season off THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972 and Drew Lock got the start in Week 1, giving Denver's its 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning led the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win. He has missed some time earlier but he has been 'at the controls' the last four games.

Denver comes in off Denver a 34-27 loss at Atlanta, after the Broncos had beaten the Chargers the previous week 34-30, scoring the winning TD with 0:00 on the clock. The week before that, the Broncos lost 43-16 to the Chiefs. Doing some quick math, the Denver D has allowed 35.7 PPG over its last three games. While Lock has had his moments, he's completing a poor 56.5% on the season for 1,240 yards with six TDs and six INTs (QB rating of 73.6). The Broncos expected much more from FA Melvin Gordon but he's got just 393 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) with four TDS. Denver is averaging a modest 116.3 YPG on the ground and its passing game is inconsistent, at best. TE Fant leads with 32 catches, while WRs Jeudy (30 catches / 16.1 YPC / 2 TDs) and Patrick (27 catches / 14.2 YPC / 3 TDs) are not exactly a dynamic duo. Jeudy (shoulder) didn't practice much this week and is questionable. More bad news came to a defense already struggling in that DE Shelby Harris, who sat out the loss to the Falcons while in self-quarantine following close contact with someone who had contracted COVID-19, tested positive for the disease on Wednesday morning and will not play Sunday.

The struggling Denver defense will have to find a way to slow down Las Vegas QB Derek Carr, who is having a "career season." He's completing 69.8% for 2,002 yards with 16 TDs and just two INTs (110.0 QB rating). His favorite targets are TE Waller (50 catches / 4 TDs) and WR Renfro (27 catches / 2 TDs). WR Agholor may have just 17 catches but he's averaging 20.4 YPC and has a team-high five TD receptions. The Raiders OL has been devastated by injuries but Carr just keeps getting the job done plus 2nd-year RB Jacobs has followed an excellent rookie season (1,150 yards and 7 TDs), by rushing for 588 yards with six TDs plus had added 26 catches (had only 20 all last season).

The recent play of the Denver defense (see above) makes me believe Carr and Co. should be in complete control. The fact that the Raiders have lost EACH of their last two home games makes me like them even more. Note that those two losses came against the 7-2 Buffalo Bills and the 6-3 Tampa Bay 'Bradys.' Denver is nowhere near in the class of those two teams. Want more? The home team is on a perfect 8-0 SU run (6-2 ATS) in this series plus the Broncos are on an 8-19-1 ATS run vs division opponents. C'mon, the sad-sack Falcons (just 2-6 at the time) closed as 4 1/2-point home favorites over the Broncos last Sunday. This price is 'CHEAP!' Lay it.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET.

It's Week 10 and the 2-7 Giants can actually say with a straight face, if we win on Sunday, we are "right in the hunt" for the division title. It's true, thanks to the NFC East being arguably the worst in NFL history here in 2020. The 3-4-1 Eagles are in first place, followed by 2-6 Washington and then the 2-7 Cowboys and Cowboys. These teams met back on Oct 22 in Philadelphia (Week 7), with New York controlling most of the first 3 1/2 quarters, leading 21-10 with less than five minutes left. However, Carson Wentz threw 3- and 18-yard TD passes to 'escape' with a 22-21 win.

Philly QB Wentz entered this season having thrown EXACTLY seven INTs in each of the last THREE seasons, while passing for 81 TD passes. However, Wentz has really struggled in 2020, completing only 58.4% for 1,883 yards with as many INTs (12) as TDs (12), His 12 INTs are an NFL-high and he's also lost FOUR fumbles. His QB rating is just 73.2, after posting ratings of 101.9, 102.2 and 93.1 the last three years. Philly's many injuries haven't helped. TE Ertz and WR Jackson remain on IR but after a bye week, RB Miles Sanders and WR Alshon Jeffery are expected back. Miles led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving) and has run for 434 yards (6.1 YPC) with three TDs in five games this season. Philly's defense is no better than average, allowing 340.1 PPG (10th) but 25.6 PPG (17th).

Speaking of QBs that make mistakes, let me submit the name of Daniel Jones. He's completing 62.4% for 1,878 yards with eight TDs and nine INTs. I will add that he's also New York's leading rusher, adding 320 yards on 8.0 YPC. He WAS turnover free in New York's win last Sunday (more later) but even with that mistake-free game, the second-year QB has committed a whopping 36 turnovers in 21 career starts. The only NFL quarterback with a worse ratio to start his career was Ryan Leaf (OUCH!). With Barkley done for the season, the New York running game is non-existent. Subtract Jones' totals and New York's RBs are averaging 70.4 YPG on 3.7 YPC. TE Engram leads with 36 catches, followed by WR Slayton (33 catches / 14.9 YPC / 3 TDs). It's possible we'll see more of Golden Tate in this game. Tate signed a four-year, $37 million deal last year (he had 90-plus catches with Seattle for four straight seasons from 2014-17) in an attempt to fill the void created by the trade of Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns. However, he's been in 'the dog house' in 2020, playing just over 50% of the offensive snaps the past few weeks prior to his benching. Tate has 22 catches on 29 targets for 226 yards with two TDs this season in a reduced role. He apologized earlier this week so maybe...The New York defense is similar to that of Philadelphia's, allowing 24.3 PPG on 360.0 YPG.

Philly's Week 7 22-21 win over the Giants gave the Eagles SEVEN straight victories over their NFC East rivals but note that the Giants have covered in FIVE of those contests. The Giants lost that Thursday night game at Philly by allowing two TDs in the final 4:38. The Giants led 20-3 at Washington last Sunday but needed TWO fourth-quarter interceptions to hold on for a 23-20 win. That said, the Giants enter this contest having covered FIVE of their last six, while averaging 24.2 PPG in their last five. I want the points but I'm calling for the OUTRIGHT win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC South Game of the Year is on the Ten Titans at 8:20 ET.

The 5-3 Indianapolis Colts visit Nashville on Thursday night to take on the 6-2 Tennessee Titans. The Titans can open a two-game lead in the division with a win, while the Colts can move into a first-place tie with the Titans by winning. The teams meet again at Indianapolis in Week 12. The Colts signed QB Philip Rivers in the offseason as a FA and he's been solid (more below) but it's the team's defense that's been the key, as the Colts are allowing a league-low 290.0 YPG and 20.0 PPG (3rd-best). The Titans entered the season off their great playoff run of last season (won at New England and Baltimore before losing at KC in the AFC championship game) and got off to a 5-0 start. However, back-to-back losses followed, before last Sunday's 24-17 win over the Bears.

Rivers took over as the Chargers' starting QB in 2006 and over the next 14 seasons, started EVERY game, topping 3,000 passing yards in every one, including passing for over 4,000 yards 11 times (he's topped 4,000 in his last SEVEN seasons). He's on pace for another 4,000-yard season in 2020, as through eight games he's got 2,087 yards. His completion rate of 67.9% is slightly above his career mark (64.8) and his QB rating of 91.9 is just below his career mark (95.0). However, he has thrown a modest 10 TD passes and has seven INTs. WR Hilton (22) looks like he'll be able to play but TE Cox (17) is out. The team's leading receiver is RB Hines (28 catches for three TDs). The running game offers little help, averaging 102.4 YPG on 3.7 YPC. Rookie RB Taylor has underwhelmed so far, with 416 yards on 3.9 YPC with four TDs. As noted earlier, it's been the defense that's led the way for the Colts in 2020.

Ryan Tannehill took over at QB for Mariota midway through the 2019 season and was a steady hand during the Titans' strong regular season finish and their playoff run. However, most thought of him as little more than a "game-manager," with the Tennessee offense relying on RB Derrick Henry. Henry dominated most of the time in 2019 but here in 2020, Tannehill has broken through (out). He's completing 65.7% for 1,981 yards with a great TD/INT ratio of 19-3 and a QB rating of 109.4. Henry ran for 1,540 yards with 16 TDs in 2019 and is on pace to duplicate that in 202 with 843 yards and eight TDs. The Tennessee defense has NOT played as well this season, allowing about 30 more YPG and more importantly, 25.1 PPG, after allowing 20.7 PPG in 2019.

The Colts had won five of six before Sunday's 24-10 home loss to Baltimore, which dropped them a game behind Tennessee for first place in the AFC South. Meanwhile, Tennessee ended a two-game slide with its best defensive effort in a month. The Titans held the Bears scoreless through  three quarters and fixed their third-down issues, allowing Chicago to convert just 2 of 15 after permitting opponents to cash in on nearly 62 percent during the first seven games. The Bears are no offensive juggernaut but that's the case with the Colts too, with Indy averaging 26.o PPG (15th) and  360.5 YPG (21st). Yes, the Colts D has been terrific but the Titans are averaging 29.0 PPG (7th-best).

As noted above, this will be the first of two meetings between the teams in 17 days, as they play again on Nov 29 in Indianapolis. Earning a win here is HUGE. My bet says it's Tennessee, as the Titans are 8-3 SU at home since Tannehill assumed the starting job and this price means a "W" is basically a cover!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the TB Bucs at 8:20 ET.

When the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints met in Week 1, it featured the first game ever to involve two QBs in their 40s, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. However, that was hardly the ONLY storyline, as those particular 40-year-old QBs are QUITE special. Brees was the NFL's all-time leader in yards passing with 77,416 and passing TDs with 547. Brady was second in both categories with 74,571 and 541. The Saints won that Week 1 game 34-23 but as teams meet again in Week 9, the 6-2 Bucs sit atop the NFC South with the 5-2 Saints right on their heels. 

Brees is completing 73.1% for 1,898 yards with 13 TDs and just three INTs, while Brady's completing 66.2% for 2,189 yards with 20 TDs and only four INTs. Brees still has more career passing yards than Brady (about 3,000 more) but TB 12 now leads Brees in career TD passes, 561 to 560. Brees, who has had shoulder issues this season, has played almost the entire season with WR Michael Thomas (caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. He has practiced on a limited basis this week but the Saints have yet to make a firm commitment on his status. As for Brady, he threw two INTs and was sacked three times in the opener but has since led the Bucs to a 6-1 record with 18 TDs and just two INTs.

RB Kamara didn't sign a new deal with the Saints until right before the 2020 season opened but he's run for 431 yards (5.0 YPC) with four TDs, while leading the team in receptions with 55 (three TD catches), The Bus have a solid RB as well in Jones, who has 529 yards (4.5 YPC) with four TDs.  WR Evans has 30 catches and a team-high seven TD catches, while fellow WR Miller has 25 catches (two TDs), averaging a team-high 16.0 YPC. Then there's Gronk, who is back in form after catching 14 passes the last three games, adding one TD catch in each game. Of course, the HUGE news out of Tampa recently has been that the Buccaneers activated wide receiver Antonio Brown from the suspended list earlier in the week. They signed the former Steeler, Raider and Patriot on Oct 27. "He'll have his role," Bucs head coach Bruce Arians said. "It could be 10 plays, it could be 35 plays. I wouldn't anticipate 60 plays, for sure, but we'll just see how it goes." Arians said Brown was "full speed" in his first workout with his new team.

I had the Saints in that Week 1 win but will "Back the Bucs" in this one. Tampa Bay's defense is third in yards allowed (299.5 per game), tied for first in takeaways (14) and tied for 2nd in sacks (28). However, the most important defensive number is always points allowed and the Bucs are allowing 20.6 PPG, compared to the 28.1 PPG allowed by the Saints OK, the Bucs have traditionally been a VERY poor home favorite but that was ALL pre-TB 12. Tampa Bay has played three home games in 2020, beating the Panthers 31-17, the Chargers 38-31 and the Packers 38-10. This is Tampa Bay's LONE home game in a four-game stretch and a win means the Bucs will extend their lead over the Saints to 1 1/2-games (two up in the loss column). Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC/NFC Game of the Month is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:25 ET.

The Dolphins and Cards are both 2020 surprises. Miami's playoff appearance in 2016 is its ONLY one over the previous 11 seasons. The Dolphins had gone 18-30 in the three seasons since that 2016 playoff appearance but enter this contest 4-3, having won FOUR of five, including three straight. Arizona was 13-3 back in 2015 but followed with four straight non-winning seasons, including a combined 8-23-2 record the last two seasons. However, the Cards come off their bye week at 5-2 and also enter this game on a THREE-game winning streak. Drawing top-billing in this game will be former first-round QB picks Kyler Murray (No. 1 overall in 2019) and Tua Tagovailoa (No. 5 in 2020).

The Dolphins made the decision to bench veteran QB Ryan Fitzgerald and give Tua his first career start in Miami's Week 8 game against the Rams. Last Monday's headline read: Tua wins his first NFL start! Can't argue with Miami's 28-17 win over the LA Rams but didn't Miami win DESPITE Tua? He fumbled on his first pass attempt as Rams star defensive tackle Aaron Donald knocked the ball loose, setting up the Rams on Miami's 15-yard line. Three plays later, it was 7-0 LA. However, the Dolphins scored 28 consecutive first-half points to take a 28-7 lead, thanks in large part to four turnovers (two interceptions, two fumbles) by Rams QB Jared Goff. One fumble was returned 78 yards for a TD plus Miami added an 88-yard punt return TD, as well. As for Tua, he completed 12 of 22 for 93 yards with one TD (zero INTs). His longest completion was for 15 yards and his TD pass was a three-yarder.  Miami's running game has not been ANY help, averaging just 98.0 YPG on 3.6 YPC. Myles Gaskins leads the team with 387 yards rushing on just 3.9 YPC and two TDs. WRs Parker (30 catches / 12.2 YPC / 3 TDs) and Williams (14 catches / 16.3 YPC / 5 TDs) will give Tua some quality targets but can he deliver the ball to them? We'll see. Miami's defense allows 376.0 YPG (middle-of-the-road) but only 18.6 PPG, the lowest of any team!

That defense will get a good test vs Murray and the Arizona offense. Murray is completing 66.8% for 1,847 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. He adds 437 yards rushing on 6.7 YPC with seven TDs. Drake has turned into a solid RB, rushing for 512 yards on 4.3 YPC with four TDs. While Miami averages under 100 YPG on the ground (see above), Arizona averages 160.7 YPG on 5.2 YPC. Future HOF Larry Fitzgerald is still around but he averages just 7.1 YPC on 29 receptions (zero TDs). However, Hopkins has 57 catches (12.4 YPC / 3 TDs) and Kirk just 18 receptions but averages 15.4 YPC and five TDs. Arizona's D entered its Week 7 game with Seattle and Russell Wilson allowing just 18.6 PPG but allowed 572 yards and 34 points, as Wilson threw for 388 yards and three TDs. However, Arizona despite trailing by 10 points midway through the 4th quarter, Arizona came back for a 37-34 OT win, Seattle's only loss of 2020. BTW,,,The Cardinals picked off Wilson THREE times, the same number of interceptions he's thrown in Seattle's SIX wins, combined.

I talked about Arizona's advantage in the running game earlier and Miami's Gaskin (knee injury) and backup running back Matt Breida (hamstring) did not practice on Wednesday. Then, Gaskin was put on injured reserve Thursday and will have to miss at least three games. Murray has 23 starts under his belt and gets better week-by-week, while Tua makes only his second career start, after a very mediocre first one. What's more, this start comes on the road. The Dolphins are just 5-10 ATS as a non-division road dog, while Arizona comes off a bye on a THREE-game winning streak SU and ATS, with an average margin of victory of 17.0 PPG.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET.

The 3-4 Broncos are in Atlanta on Sunday to take on the 2-6 Falcons and BOTH teams know all about "down to the wire" finishes in 2020. Denver opened the current season off THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972. The Broncos lost their season opener 16-14 to the Titans, when Tennessee kicked the game-winning FG with just 17 seconds left in the game. Just last Sunday, the Broncos came back from a 24-3 first-half deficit against the Chargers to win 31-30 on a TD pass on the game's final play! The Falcons have never been the same since losing a 28-3 lead to the Pats in the Super Bowl in the 2016 season and early this season were involved in notable collapses in Week 2 vs the Cowboys and Week 3 vs the Bears plus just two weeks ago in their most recent home game, they lost on the final play to the Detroit Lions, 23-22.

Drew Lock opened the season as Denver's 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning led the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win and missed some earlier but has been back in the staring lineup for each of the last three games. He completed 26 of 41 passes for 248 yards with three TDs (including the game-winner with 0:00 left) and one INT, earning a QB rating of 94.4. That said, I will NOT ignore that fact that in his two previous starts, he completed just 53.1% with zero TD passes and four INTs, with QB ratings of 57.7 and 34.9! Gordon has NOT been a big boost for Denver's running game (375 yards on 4.2 YPC / 4 TDs), which averages only 112.9 YPG. TE Fant leads with 29 catches and WR Jeudy has 23 catches  (15.6 YPC / one TD). Denver's D is no better than average, allowing 26.1 PPG on 360.0 YPG.

When Atlanta lost 23-16 at home to Carolina to fall to 0-5, head coach Dan Quinn was fired (should have been gone right after that INCREDIBLE Super Bowl collapse). The Falcons named Raheem Morris as interim head coach and the Falcons are 2-1 but with ANY luck, would be 3-0 (lost to Detroit on the game's final play). Matt Ryan will be close to 5,000 passing yards once again, as he's completing 66.8% for 2,462 yards with 12 TDs and four INTs. Third-year WR Ridley is having an excellent season (543 catches / 15.3 YPC / 6 TDs) and superstar WR Julio Jones is rejuvenated (and healthy), catching 23 balls for 371 yards the last three games. Like Gordon for Denver, Atlanta's signing of Gurley has NOT improved the running game as much as expected. He does have 531 yards but averaged just 3.8 YPC. Still, his eight TDs through eight games "ain't bad!" The Atlanta defense can't be counted on (especially to hold a lead), allowing 28.0 PPG on 410.6 YPG.

I guess one could call this a rematch of SB XXXIII, a game that saw QB John Elway cap his career with a 34-19 victory and MVP honors. However, that seems like a lifetime ago. Atlanta is in a bad historical ATS situation but I think Lock is overrated and the Falcons catch Denver off its 'miracle' comeback won over the Chargers last Sunday. As mentioned above, the Falcons have responded VERY well to the coaching change, so I'm laying the points, expecting a comfortable Atlanta win.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC Championship Game Rematch is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET.

The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers both went 13-3 and met in the NFC championship game in 2019. The result was a DOMINATING San Francisco win, as the 49ers led 27-0 at the half and cruised to a 37-20. It's a rematch of that contest in this Week 9 Thursday Night game, as the 49ers again welcome the Packers to Levi's Stadium. The 49ers opened 2-3, then followed with B2B wins (24-16 at home against the Rams and 33-6 at the Pats), but then lost 37-27 at Seattle last Sunday. The 4-4 Niners find themselves in last-place in the NFL's toughest division, behind the 6-1 Seahawks, 5-2 Cards and 5-3 Rams. The Packers sprinted to a 4-0 SU & ATS start but after a bye (Week 5), have sandwiched a 35-20 Week 7 win at Houston with a 38-10 loss at Tampa Bay (Week 6) and a 28-22 home loss to Minnesota (Week 8). Green Bay is 5-2 and just a half-game up on the Bears in the NFC North.

Aaron Rodgers entered last week's game with Minnesota on quite a roll, except for the team's 38-10 loss at Tampa. Rodgers was 16 of 35 for only 160 yards without a TD pass and was intercepted twice in that one. However, in Green Bay's five wins, he'd thrown for 1,497 yards (299.4 per game) with 17 TDs and not a SINGLE interception in 173 attempts! Rodgers had a solid game vs the Vikings, completing 27 of 41 for 291 yards with three TDs and zero INTs. However, RB Aaron Jones (389 yards on 5.2 YPC and 5 TDs plus 18 catches for 2 TDs) missed his second straight game with a calf injury and Green Bay was able to run for just 109 yards. In contrast, Minnesota's Dalvin Cook ran for 163 yards with three TDs and added a TD catch. Green Bay WR Davante Adams had missed two games this season but had 13 receptions for 196 yards and two TDs in Week 7 and while his seven catches last Sunday only totaled 53 yards, THREE went for TDs. He has 43 catches and seven TDs in five games this season, while TE Tonyan has five TDs in a modest 23 catches. Green Bay's defense has underperformed from last season, allowing 26.7 PPG after allowing 19.6 PPG in last season.

San Francisco's loss at Seattle not only dropped them into last place but adding insult to injury, TE Kittles (foot) and QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) both got hurt and each will miss multiple games. It is possible that neither player will suit up again this season. The team's best RB Mostert (303 yards on 5.9 YPC) is out with an injury and after Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed for a career-high three TDs and 112 yards in the win over Houston, he sustained a high left ankle sprain that landed him on injured reserve. The 49ers ran for just 52 yards (2.4 YPC) against Seattle. Nick Mullens replace Jimmy G last week and completed 18 of 25 for 238 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Mullens is completing 70.4% for 852 yards with seven TDs and five INTs (5-5 ratio prior to last week).

I'll admit that San Francisco as a home dog (climbing to almost a TD by Wednesday) seems tempting. However, this team has SO many key injuries and now COVID issues, that the 49ers are a 'shell' of the club which led KC 20-10 in last year's Super Bowl midway through the fourth quarter. THREE of San Francisco's four wins have come over the NY Giants, NY Jets and the NE Pats, a trio which owns a combined record of 3-20. Green Bay gets some revenge from last year's NFC championship loss and gets its season back on track with a comfortable win.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET.

The Seattle Seahawks came back from its bye week 5-0 but the team had been 'walking a tightrope' for most of those five games, as THREE of Seattle's five victories had come down to the game's final 15 seconds. Seattle entered its SNF contest in Arizona with a defense that had allowed a league-high 431.2 YPG. Seattle led 34-24 midway through the fourth quarter but couldn't hang on, as Murray drove the Cards 75 yards to close within three points with just 2;28 remaining. Seattle punted it back to Arizona, which tied the game with a 44-yard FG on the final play of regulation and won it with a FG in OT.

5-1 Seattle welcomes the 4-3 SF 49ers to CenturyLink Field this Sunday. The 49ers are not just defending NFC West champs but they are also defending NFC champs. The Niners opened 2-3 but have won two in a row (24-16 at home against the Rams and 33-6 at the Pats) to get back to 4-3. However, the 49ers still find themselves in last-place in the NFL's toughest division, behind the 5-2 Cards and Rams plus the 5-1 Seahawks. Safe to say, this is a big game for both teams.

Jimmy Garoppolo was 20 of 25 for 277 yards in San Francisco's 33-6 rout of the Pats, in what was his first game against his former team. However, he didn't throw a TD and had three INTs. Leading rusher Mostert sat out with an injury but Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed for a career-high three TDs and 112 yards but sustained a high left ankle sprain that landed him on injured reserve. TE Kittle is back from an early injury and has 31 catches in his last four games. The WR corps is mediocre at best and who knows who will be healthy among the RBs. The San Francisco defense is again playing well, allowing 19.4 PPG, the same it allowed in 2019

Russell Wilson was widely considered the front-runner for the NFL's MVP award through Week 6, as he had completed 72.8% for 1,502 yards while leading the league with 19 TD passes (just three INTs) and with a 129.8 QB rating. Wilson completed 33 of 50 passes for 388 yards and three TDs vs Arizona but he also had THREE costly interceptions. Wilson  is also a key part of Seattle's rushing attack, running for 237 yards on 8.2 YPC. RB Carson adds a team-high 323 yards on 4.9 YPC and three TDs plus also has 22 receptions with three TDs. Lockett has 45 catches and a team-high seven TDs, while fellow WR Metcalf is the "big play" receiver, with 24 catches, a 21.6 YPC average and five TDs. The two-headed TE duo of Olsen and Dissly combine for 27 catches and two TDs. However, the defense had better get better, fast!

"There were so many opportunities to win the football game," Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said of last Sunday's game, in which a 48-yard touchdown reception by DK Metcalf in overtime was wiped out by a penalty. "We've been in the situation where we count on things to happen in the right place, happen in the right situations and the right complementary play occurs, and we just missed it." QB Russell Wilson added, "I thought we played a great game except for those three plays. Those are my fault. There's so much that we can do, and we have so much confidence. Our confidence is not going to waver. They're a great football team, too. We knew it was going to be a battle."

Except for a win over the Rams in Week 5, San Francisco's three other wins have come over the sad-sack Giants and Jets (a combined 1-13) and the Pats, who are beginning to look like a team 'going nowhere!' The 49ers come in with significant injuries on "both sides of the ball," while Russell Wilson comes off losing a game for the first time in his nine-year career when leading by four or more points at halftime. He had been 59-0 in such situations. I'm "all over" the Seahawks!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider (Week 8) is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.

The Colts signed QB Philip Rivers in the offseason as a FA but while the veteran has completed 69.7% for 1,598 yards, he's thrown just seven TDs with six INTs. However, the 38-year-old veteran came to the rescue in Indy's last game, passing for 371 yards in a 31-27 win over Cincinnati in Week 6. The 4-2 Colts come off a bye week when they travel to Detroit to take on the 3-3 Lions, who have won back-to-back games for the first time since Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2019 season. The Lions beat the hapless Jaguars 34-16 in Week 6 and then edged the Falcons 23-22 last Sunday. Stafford passed for a season-high 340 yards against the Falcons, the first time he's reached the 300-yard mark this year. and also wasn't picked off for the second time this year. Most importantly, Stafford led the Lions on a 75-yard TD drive in just 1:04, capping it with an 11-yard TD pass on the game's final play. The extra-point gave Detroit the win.

The Colts are really struggling with their running game, averaging a measly 98.0 YPG on an NFL-low 3.6 YPC. Rookie RB Taylor gets most of the carries and leads with 367 yards but with a modest 4.1 YPC average. While Rivers came up big in Indy's comeback win vs Cincy, he's NOT the Rivers of old and part of that is the team's mediocre at best, receiving corps. However, the Colts are allowing just 288.0 YPG, second to only Pittsburgh for fewest in the NFL. Indy leads the NFL in interceptions with 10 and the team's pass D ranks second-best by allowing 199.7 YPG through the air. As always, points allowed is the most important stat and the Colts allow 19.2 per game, 4th-best in the league.

Stafford is used to putting up huge numbers but the Lions have only made three playoff appearances in his seasons prior to 2020. He enters this game 72-81-1 as a starting QB, not including his 0-3 playoff record. TE Hockenson leads with 22 catches and four TDs, although WR Golladay is rounding into form after recovering from a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the team's first two games. Golladay has exceeded the 100-yard mark in the last two victories and now has 20 catches (in four games), averaging 16.9 YPC with two TDs. However, Detroit's running game isn't much better than Indy's, averaging 108.5 YPG on 4.1 YPC. Adrian Peterson may be headed to the HOF but he's no longer an "impact player," rushing for 314 yards on just 3.9 YPC. On the defensive side of the ball, the Lions 27.5 PPG, more than EIGHT points higher than Indy has allowed.

Yes, the Lions have won back-to-back games but those wins have come over 1-6 Jacksonville and 2-6 Atlanta. I noted that the last time Detroit had won back-to-back games was in Weeks 2 and 3 of 2019 and in the time between those two, 2-0 streaks, the Lions had gone 2-15 SU and 5-12 ATS. Indy's defense will be the difference in this one and it doesn't hurt that the Colts enter this contest 8-2-1 ATS in their recent matchups against NFC opponents. Detroit winning THREE in a row is too much to ask!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.

The Pittsburgh Steelers lost "Big Ben" in Week 2 of 2019 and missed the playoffs for the second consecutive season last year. However, the 38-year-old Roethlisberger is playing with a surgically repaired right elbow in 2020 and is "looking good!" When the Steelers beat the Eagles 38-29 in Week 5, it marked the first time Pittsburgh had opened 4-0 in 41 years (hard to believe but true!). The Steelers have tacked on two more wins since then, 38-7 at home to the Browns and 27-24 at Tennessee, in a 'battle' of unbeatens. When Seattle lost at Arizona in Week 7's SNF, Pittsburgh stood as the last remaining undefeated NFL team (6-0 and 5-1 ATS). The Steelers will carry that mantle into a game at Baltimore on Sunday with the Ravens, who are 5-1, losing only a MNF game to the KC Chiefs (anyone know if KC is any good?). The winner of Sunday's contest will move on as the AFC North's first place team, a game Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin labeled as the league's game of the week. Reasonable enough, don't you think.

Roethlisberger is completing 68.2% for 1,446 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs (QB rating of 105.2). RB James Connor (451 yards on 4.7 YPC with four TDs) leads a rushing game averaging 129.7 YPG. WRs JuJu Smith-Shuster (32 catches) and Diontae Johnson (24 catches) each have three TD receptions but NEITHER is averaging as much as 10.0 YPC. Chase Claypool, a second-year WR from Notre Dame, has 18 catches but averages 18.5 YPC with four TDs. Three of those TD plus a rushing TD came in Pittsburgh's 38-29 Week 5 win over Philly. TE Ebron has been solid with 22 catches and one TD. The Pittsburgh defense allows 19.7 PPG (6th-best) but is No. 1 in total D (286.3 YPG), first in sacks (26) and second in rushing yards allowed (68.8 YPG).

Baltimore was just 2-2 through the first four games of the 2019 season but the Ravens would win their final 12 games, covering NINE of their last 10. QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP, posting a 113.3 QB rating (36-6 ratio) while rushing for 1,206 yards (6.9 YPC / 7 TDs), which set a single-record for QBs. Baltimore set a single season record for team rushing yards and became the first team since at least 1950 to average 200-plus pass YPG (201.6) and 200-plus rush YPG (206) in the same season. The D was not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG). However, the Ravens were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs last season, losing 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites.

Baltimore and Jackson sure have "something to prove" in 2020 and while they are 5-1, a 34-20 home loss to the Chiefs on MNF (Week 3), "ups the ante" on this first-place showdown with Pittsburgh. Jackson is playing well, completing 63.0% for 1,135 yards with 10 TDs and two INTs, while again leading the team in rushing with 346 yards on 6.9 YPC with two TDs. The running games is averaging a healthy 164.3 YPG but that's down from the team's NFL record 206.0 YPG last season, RB Ingram joined Jackson as a 1,000-yard rusher in 2019 but he has just 225 yards so far this season, as Edwards and Dobbins join him as a rotating three-back attack. WR Brown leads with 26 catches (14.5 YPC but just one TD), while the trio of Snead, Boykin and Duvernoy have combined for 32 catches (also just one TD, combined). TE Andrews has 20 catches and a team-high five TD receptions. The Baltimore D is allowing 339.8 YPG (53 yards more per game than Pittsburgh) but the Ravens are allowing a league-low 17.3 PPG. And after all, isn't that the MOST important stat?

The Ravens are the old Cleveland Browns and this rivalry NEVER lost its intensity with the move to Baltimore. The Ravens are coming off a bye week and get back on the field on a 'money-making' 12-4 regular season ATS run. As noted above, after that MNF loss to KC, the Ravens NEED a "W" here, badly. That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the season 3-0 and then a COVID-19 outbreak had their Week 4 showdown with the Steelers was rescheduled for Week 6. The team's Week 5 game with 4-0 Buffalo was pushed back to a Tuesday night and after winning their first three games by a combined margin of just NINE points (going 0-3 ATS), the Titans routed the Bills 42-16. Tennessee then won a 42-36 OT at Houston, before losing their first game of the season 27-24 to Pittsburgh, The Steelers led that game 27-7 in the late third quarter, before the Titans nearly sent the game to OT but Gostkowski missed a game-tying FG with just 19 seconds left.

The Bengals were coming off a 2-14 season in 2019 but drafted Heisman-winner Joe Burrow with the first overall pick of the 2020 Draft, Head coach Zac Taylor is in just his second season but felt like Burrow was the type of QB the Bengals could build around. Cincy is just 1-5-1 but despite MANY flaws, the Bengals are 5-2 ATS and have been "right in" every game except their 24-3 loss at Baltimore. 

QB Tannehill has been terrific (68.5% / 1,590 yards with 15 TDs and two INTs / 112.3 QB rating) and RB Henry has been his usual self (663 yards / 4.6 YPC / 7 TDs) for the Titans. However, the Titans' D has NOT been good, allowing 401.8 YPG and 25.2 PPG. The team's 'stop unit' can't "make a stop" on third down, as opponents are converting 61 percent of the time, the worst mark for an NFL team in 30 years. Pittsburgh shown a light on just that last Sunday, converting 13 of 18 on third down tries.

Joe Burrow gets little help from his running game (98.9 YPG on 3.7 YPC) and the team's only RB of note, Joe Mixon (428 yards), will miss a second straight game with a foot injury. The OL has allowed Burrow to be sacked 28 times but the rookie has still managed to complete 66.6% for 2,023 yards with nine TDs and five INTs. The defense is about as bad as Tennessee's, allowing 27.7 PPG on 395.1 YPG.

However, except for that loss at Baltimore, the Bengals have beaten the Jags 33-25 at home, tied the Eagles 23-23 in Philly and and lost FOUR games by margins of just THREE, FIVE, FOUR and THREE points! The Titans have played just two road games in 2020, winning by 16-14 at Denver (2-4) and 31-30 at Minnesota (1-5). Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET.

The NFL enters its Week 7 with THREE unbeaten teams. The 5-0 Steelers and 5-0 Titans will square off in Nashville at 1:00 ET and the lone remaining unbeaten, the 5-0 Seahawks will play at Arizona vs the 4-2 Cards. The Raiders were scheduled to host the Bucs in Las Vegas for NBC's Sunday Night Football but had to place four starting offensive linemen plus a safety on the reserve/COVID-19 list. All five players were deemed high-risk contacts and the NFL then announced on Thursday that the Raiders' game against the Bucs had been moved to 4:05 ET "out of an abundance of caution to ensure that a game would be available for fans on Sunday Night Football." This Seattle/Arizona contest will now be Week 7's SNF matchup.

Seattle QB Russell Wilson is widely considered the front-runner for the NFL's MVP award a third of the way through the season, as he's completing 72.8% for 1,502 yards while leading the league with 19 TD passes (just three INTs) and with a 129.8 QB rating. He also contributes to the Seattle running game, rushing for 153 yards on 6.7 YPC with three TDs. RB Carson is the "featured" back and has 289 rushing yards on 4.7 YPC with three TDs. Carlson also has 21 catches with three more TDs. Wilson has an outstanding group of receivers, as Luckett leads with 30 catches but Metcalf has become the big playmaker with 22 catches, a 22.5 YPC average and five TDs. WR Moore has 10 catches (17.3 YPC and three TDs), while TD Olsen adds 15 catches. Seattle's Achilles' Heel is a defense allowing a league-high 431.2 YPG. With scoring way up this year, at least Seattle isn't one of the NINE teams allowing 30-plus PPG (27.8).

Arizona's second-year QB Kyler Murray completed just 9 of 24 attempts against the Cowboys but two went for TDs, including an 80-yarder to Christian Kirk that gave Arizona a 21-0 lead. Murray also rushed for 74 yards and a TD. He's completing 65.9% for 1,487 yards with 10 TDs and six INTs. Those are not quite Wilson-like stats but he's also run for 370 yards (7.3 YPC) with six TDs. RB Kenyan Drake is turning into a solid player, rushing for 4678 yards (4.6 YPC) and four TDs. Future HOF Fitzgerald may have 21 catches but he's averaging only 6.9 YPC without a TD. Hopkins is now the team's "go-to" WR with 47 catches, with Kirk catching 13 passes (18.5 YPC) with three TDs. Arizona owns a HUGE edge on defense, holding opponents to about 100 YPG less than Seattle's D and to just 18.7 PPG (almost 10 PPG less).

Seattle will NOT go 16-0, so a loss is coming and it's a fact that THREE of Seattle's five victories have come down to the game's final 15 seconds. However, Seattle is coming off a bye week (covered FIVE of the last seven in that situation), while Arizona is off its MNF win at Dallas. Murray vs Dalton was a mismatch but can Murray outplay Wilson? My bet says no.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.

The defending Super Bowl champion KC Chiefs have opened the 2020 season 5-1 and sit atop the AFC West. However, KC is the LONE division winner from 2019 to actually lead its division here in 2020, as the season gets set for Week 7. I won't list all of the reigning division winners 'looking up' to at least ONE team in their respective divisions here but WILL discuss TWO of those seven teams, as they meet Sunday in Foxboro. The San Francisco 49ers won the NFC West last season at 13-3 (and advanced to the Super Bowl) but their 3-3 record leaves them in last-place in 2020, behind not only the 5-0 Seahawks but also the 4-2 Rams and Cards. The Pats are more than just the defending AFC East champs, as New England entered 2020 having captured the AFC East title the previous 11 years and in 17 of the last 19 seasons (since 2001). The Pats welcome the 49ers to Gillette Stadium on Sunday with a 2-3 record. New England hasn't been under .500 through the fifth game or later in any season since they were 3-4 in 2002, which was the last season the Patriots did not win 10-plus games.

The 49ers just evened their record at 3-3 last Sunday night, beating the Rams 24-16. The 49ers rode the excellent play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (69.1% for 3,978 yards with 27 TDs and 13 INTs / 102.0 QB rating), the NFC's best running game (144.1 YPG) and the NFC's stingiest defense (281.0 YPG) all the way to the Super Bowl last season. However, injuries have plagued them all season, on both sides of the ball. Garoppolo was completing 67.3% of his passes (4 TDs / 0 INTs) when he got hurt in Week 2. He returned in Week 5 but with the Miami Dolphins up 30-7 at halftime (Niners would lose 43-17), 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan pulled him during the half (concerned for his health). Garoppolo 'was on the money" against the Rams, throwing three first-half TD passes, finishing 23 of 33 for 268 yards without an INT (124.3 QB rating). RB Raheem Mostert also got back in the lineup and ran 17 times for 65 yards before suffering an ankle injury and leaving the game early in the third quarter. TE George Kittle caught seven passes for 109 yards and one TD, as the 49ers offense that did most of its damage in the first half en route to a 21-6 lead. The San Francisco defense, which was last seen serving up 436 yards and 43 points in a blowout home loss to the Miami Dolphins last week, held the Rams to 311 yards, in large part by limiting QB Jared Goff, who finished with a modest 198 passing yards on just 19 of 38 completions. Jason Verrett stalled a Los Angeles Rams third quarter rally with an end-zone interception and a fourth-and-goal (allowing San Francisco to retain a 21-9) and when LA made it a one-score margin on a 40-yard TD pass from Goff with 3:24 to play, the San Francisco offense ran out the clock (Rams never got the ball back).

The New England didn't allow a TD in Week 6 but Denver's Brandon McManus kicked a franchise-record SIX field goals to lift the visiting Denver Broncos to an 18-12 victory last Sunday. The game originally scheduled for Oct 12 and was pushed back to this past Sunday due to several COVID-19 cases in the Patriots' organization. New England was unable to hold many practices over the previous two weeks, including having Friday's session canceled due to center James Ferentz being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. QB Cam Newton saw his first action since Week 3 and ran for 76 yards and a touchdown and went 17-for-25 passing but for only 157 yards with TWO interceptions. He has options at WR in Edelman (20 catches), Harry (18 catches) and Byrd (17) plus RB White has 165 catches in the last two games. Newton lead the Past with 225 rushing and has five rushing TDs but they'll need better passing number out of him. RB Sony Michel has run for 173 (6.7 YPC) in just three games but was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list for the Denver game (status unknown at this time for Sunday). The New England D did its job vs Denver, allowing just 299 yards plus holding Denver to 4 of 14 on third downs. The Pats D was the best in the league last season but one can't and didn't expect this year's unit to hold opponents to 14.1 PPG, again. Scores are up in 2020 and the Pats are allowing 22.1 PPG (not bad) and rank 9th in total D, allowing 275.9 YPG.

The 49ers and Patriots are among the NFL’s most storied franchises with 11 SB titles between them (Pats own six and the Niners five). Garoppolo would NO doubt love to get a victory over the team that drafted him (sat behind Brady from 2014-17) but Newton (a former MVP) has MUCH to prove as well. The clincher for me is, it hasn't been often that one can back Belichick (coming off TWO straight losses) at such a small 'price' and at HOME, no less! The 49ers may be 2-0 on the road in 2020 but those wins have come at MetLife Stadium over the Giants and Jets (a combined 1-11).

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 7 Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

It's the "Battle 4 Ohio" Part 2. The Browns won Part 1 back in Week 2 on a Thursday night, 35-30. In that contest, Cincy took a 3-0 lead but Cleveland never trailed after going up 7-3. However, the Bengals "never went away," and Burrow's third TD pass of the game (with 43 seconds left) gave the Bengals the "backdoor cover." Burrow threw for 316 yards and three TDs (zero INTs) in his second career start, while Baker Mayfield threw for 219 yards with two TDs and one INT. The difference in the game was Cleveland's running game, which produced 215 yards (6.1 YPC) compared to Cincinnati's 68 yards on 2.8 YPC. The Browns lead the NFL in rushing (169.5 YPG) with Kareem Hunt (387 yards on 4.7 YPC with three TDs) filling in admirably for starter Nick Chubb (knee), who remains on injured reserve. The Bengals average only 101.8 YPG on the ground, with Joe Mixon doing almost all of the heavy lifting (428 rushing yards / 3.6 YPC / three TDs).

The Browns lost their 2020 opener at Baltimore 38-6 but then ripped off FOUR straight wins to open 4-1 for the first time since 1994. The Cleveland offense was terrific in the winning streak, averaging 37.5 PPG. In fact, the Browns scored at least 30 points in each of those four straight wins, marking the first time they had reached that total in four straight games since 1968! However, as I noted last Sunday in winning a 10* play on the Steelers (Rivalry Game of the Year), the Cleveland defense was the team's Achilles' heel. Cleveland entered its game in Pittsburgh allowing 29.8 PPG, which was a TD and two-point conversion higher than what Pittsburgh was allowing (21.8 PPG). The result? A 38-7 rout by the Steelers. The Browns would appear to be on track for their first winning record since 2007 at 4-2 but it doesn't seem that way to QB Baker Mayfield. or wide-receiver OBJ. "The feeling throughout (our) building after that loss -- 4-2 has never felt so much like 0-6 before," Mayfield said. "But that's because we have very high expectations for ourselves." Odell Beckham Jr. added, "I'm pissed. And at this point, I don't really care to keep trying to make myself look like a good guy to the world and all that. ... Tired of losing. Tired of losing to good teams." Mayfield is completing 60.6 percent for 1,095 yards with 10 TDs and six INTs (QB rating of 84.3). Not bad but he was supposed to Cleveland's 'savior.' WRs Landry (24 catches / 13.3 YPC / 0 TDs) and OBJ (23 catches / 13.9 YPC / 3 TDs) have hardly been "as good as advertised." 

"Tired of losing" is a sentiment that Cincinnati is all too familiar with. The Bengals lost another winnable game last Sunday in a 31-27 setback at the Indianapolis Colts. The now 1-4-1 Bengals jumped out to a 21-0 lead, but lost after a missed fourth-quarter FG and Joe Burrow's interception in the red zone inside the final minute. "I played really well for three quarters and 14 minutes and then had one bad play," said Burrow, who threw for 313 yards. The 2020 NFL Draft's overall No. 1 pick is completing 65.0 percent for 1,617 yards with six TDs and four INTs. He has four 300-yard passing games in six starts this season but has now gone two games without a TD pass (69 attempts). Burrow said after the loss, "Put it behind us and go back to work tomorrow." However, his OL is shaky (he's been sacked 24 times, 2nd-most in the league) and I've already noted the problems with the running game. Of more concern is that Joe Mixon did not practice Wednesday with an injured foot. He rushed for a team season-high 151 yards in the Bengals' lone win in Week 4 vs Jacksonville.

After ripping off four straight wins, the Browns were held to just SEVEN points, 12 FD’s and 220 yards at Pittsburgh. Cleveland has now lost to the AFC North's two-best teams, 38-6 at Baltimore and 38-7 at Pittsburgh. OK, the Browns now face the 1-4-1 Bengals but let's remember, they'll arrive in Cincinnati with a defense allowing 31.2 PPG. The Bengals have been "right in" FIVE of six games this season (lone exception being a 27-3 Week 5 loss at Baltimore) plus let me note that Cincinnati has covered 10 of the last 12 games in this series dating back to the midway point of 2014. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY enough in this one to earn a SU win!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET.

The Atlanta Falcons opened 0-5 and that start got head coach Dan Quinn fired. In my opinion, he should have been fired immediately after Atlanta blew a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI against the Patriots (New England scored the game's last 31 points to win 34-28 in OT). Raheem Morris spent three seasons as head coach of the Bucs, producing a poor 17-31 record and had just been promoted to DC in Atlanta at the start of 2020. He was named interim head coach after the firing of Quinn and had to be pleased with Atlanta's 40-23 win at Minnesota last Sunday. Detroit's head coach Matt Patricia knows all about 'feeling the heat,' as he went 6-10 in his first season as head coach in Detroit (2018), before going 3-12-1 last season. The Lions ended 2019 on a NINE-game losing skid. Detroit ended its 11-game slide (2-9 ATS) with a 26-23 win at Arizona in Week 3 but lost the following week at home to the Saints. Detroit opened a 14-0 lead but the Saints then scored on their next FIVE possessions to take a 35-14 lead (Saints won 35-29). The Lions did win last Sunday, crushing the sad-sack Jags 34-16 in Jacksonville

Lions offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has used Adrian Peterson, rookie De'Andre Swift and Kerryon Johnson in the backfield. Peterson has received the bulk of the work (285 yards on 4.1 YPC / 2 TDs) but Swift had a breakthrough performance against the Jaguars, rushing for 116 yards on 14 carries and two TDs. I'm not sure where that effort came from, as Swift had run for just 44 yards the first four games. The Detroit running game averages just 117.4 YPG. QB Matthew Stafford always puts up big numbers (he surpassed 4,000 yards passing seven straight seasons from 2011-17) but he's just 71-82-1 as a starter in the regular season plus is 0-3 in three postseason games. He's thrown for 1,240 yards through five games (on pace for just under 4,000 yards) with nine TDs and four INTs but his receiving corps seems pretty mediocre. TE Hockenson leads with 17 catches and three TDs but the WR trio of Golladay (14), Jones (14) and Amendola (12) don't scare any secondary.

Matt Ryan, like Stafford, always puts up big numbers (he entered 2020 with NINE straight seasons of 4,000-plus passing yards) but except for Atlanta's 2016 Super Bowl run, he has shown only modest success. Atlanta had a solid running game back in 2016 but the addition of Todd Gurley has not worked out as hoped. He has run for 422 yards (4.3 YPC / 5 TDs) but in the big win over Minnesota last Sunday, he was a non-factor with 47 yards on 20 carries. Who was a factor for Atlanta was WR Julio Jones. It's no secret that Jones makes the Falcons a much more dangerous team. Following a strong opening-day performance against Seattle, Jones missed two games and struggled through two others with a hamstring injury. It was part of the reason why the Falcons started 0-5, However, he caught passes against the Vikings for 137 yards and two TDs. With Jones sidelined or ineffective early on, Calvin Ridley leads the team with 35 catches and five TDs. Fellow WR Gage has 25 catches and TE Hurst has 17 catches with three TDs.

Neither the Lions (28.6 PPG) nor the Falcons (30.7 PPG) play much defense, so this game will be decided by which team plays the better offensive game. My bet says that will be Atlanta, as with Jones back, Ryan has WAY more receiving 'weapons' than Stafford and this contest will NOT be decided by either team's running game. The Lions are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings with the Falcons plus getting that "first win of the season," should let the Falcons play with confidence. Atlanta knows it is not making the playoffs this season but being competitive the rest of the way is a reasonable goal. However, losing at home to the Lions would upset the apple cart. The 'apples stay in the cart' for at least one more game.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:15 ET.

The Dallas Cowboys opened NFL 2020 with a new head coach for the first in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green bay in the season) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherits what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owned just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. As Dallas gets set to welcome the Arizona Cardinals to "Jerry's House" for a MNF game which wraps up Week 6, one could say truthfully, that the Cowboys sit atop the NFC East. However, a closer look reveals that the Cowboys have attained their "high perch" only because the other three teams in the division are a combined 3-14-1! Dallas is just 2-3 and more notably, 0-5 ATS (only the 'minor league' Jets are worse, going 0-6 SU & ATS!).

The Arizona Cardinals visit Arlington at 3-2 but reside in one the NFL's toughest (meaning best) divisions. Seattle is atop the NFC West at 5-0, the Rams are 4-2 and the defending NFC champion 49ers are 3-3. The Cards are led by former Heisman-winner Kyler Murray, who is completing 69.6% for 1,299 with eight TDs but also six INTs (QB rating of 90.9). Murray also makes plays "with his legs," rushing for 296 yards (on 7.2 YPC) with four TDs. Kenyon Drake is the team's top RB with 314 yards but averages only 3.7 YPC. With Murray's help, Arizona is rushing for 141.0 YPG, an excellent number. Future HOF Larry Fitzgerald has 28 catches but he's no longer a playmaker, averaging just 6.8 YPC. DeAndre Hopkins is now 'the big dog' of the receiving corps, with 45 catches and three TDs. A greatly improved defense may be the biggest storyline in 2020 for Arizona, as the Cards ranked last in the NFL in 2019, allowing 402.0 YPG. However, the Cards have cut that figure to 346.6 YPG and more importantly, are allowing 20.4 PPG, after allowing 27.6 PPG in 2019.

This game is when the Cowboys formally begin life without QB Dak Prescott, whose season is over after he sustained a compound fracture and dislocation of his right ankle during last Sunday's game against the NY Giants. Prescott had passed for an NFL-leading 1,856 yards and was the driving force in making the Cowboys No. 1 in total offense (488.0 YPG), while ranking third in scoring (32.6 PPG) through Week 5. Stepping in will be veteran Andy Dalton (more on him in a bit). Zeke has 364 yards rushing and five TDs but is averaging only 4.1 YPC. WR Amari Cooper has 39 catches but averages just 10.9 YPC and has just one TD reception. However, Dalton also has three more VERY good options. Rookie WR CeeDee Lamb has 29 catches (14.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and fellow WR Gallup has 17 catches (20.5 YPC ab]nd one TD). Then there is TE Schultz, who has 19 receptions (11.8 YPC / 2 TDs). Defense HAS been a big problem and why the Cowboys are 0-5 ATS. No "Doomsday Defense" these days, as the team is allowing 404.4 YPG (29th through Week 5), while allowing 36.0 PPG (32nd of 32 teams!).

Murray has proven he can play at this level but the Arizona running game doesn't give him much cover. Take away Murray's 296 rushing yards on 7.2 YPC and Arizona RBs have contributed just 409 yards (that's 81.8 YPG) on 3.8 YPC. Making 'life' more difficult for the Cards here, is that they are playing on the road for the THIRD consecutive week. Getting back to Dalton, I expect him to "fit right in" with this talented offense. He was  9 of 12 for 111 yards in relief last week and I believe will THRIVE. He got a "bad rap" in Cincy. He took the Bengals to the playoffs in each of his first four seasons and had the team at 10-3 when his 2015 season ended due to an injury. Yes, Cincy lost in the wild card round in each of those five consecutive postseason appearances (Dalton was 0-4 with just one TD pass and six INTs) but c'mon. When he arrived in Cincy as a rookie in 2011, the franchise had missed the playoffs in 18 of the previous 20 seasons, winning for games or less in EIGHT of those seasons, including going 4-12 the year before he got there. Dalton turned things around to 9-7 as a rookie and then led the Bengals to 10-plus wins the next FOUR seasons. Is Dalton as talented as Prescott, no. However, don't be surprised if the Cowboys win seven or eight of their final 11 games with him starting. For tonight, Dallas wins impressively.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the SF 49ers at 8:20 ET.

The LA Rams went 13-3 and represented the NFC at the Super Bowl in the 2018 season (lost to the Pats) but it was the SF 49ers who went 13-3 last season and made the Super Bowl, only to lose to the Chiefs. The Rams used a two-game sweep over its California rival to capture the NFC West in 2018 and the 49ers "returned the favor" with a two-game sweep of the season series in 2019. The teams meet on SNF in Week 6 at Levi's Stadium with the Rams off to a 4-1 start, while the 49ers check in at just 2-3. Seattle sits atop the NFC West at 5-0 and even the Arizona Cards have 'thrown their hat in the ring,' by opening 3-2.

LA's Jared Goff has started strong, completing 71.7% for 1,372 yards with eight TDs and three INTs (QB rating of 108.8). He has two talented WRs in Kupp (28 catches / 2 TDs) and Woods (23 catches / 2 TDs) plus TE Higbee has 15 catches and a team high three TD grabs. LA sure doesn't miss RB Gurley, as the team's two-headed RB tandem of Henderson (260 yards) and Brown (213 yards) has the Rams averaging 139.6 YPG on the ground (7th), well above the 93.7 YPG (26th) the team averaged last season. The LA defense is also improved , allowing 18.0 PPG, down from 22.8 PPG last season.

The 49ers rode the excellent play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (69.1% for 3,978 yards with 27 TDs and 13 INTs / 102.0 QB rating), the NFC's best running game (144.1 YPG) and the NFC's stingiest defense (281.0 YPG) all the way to the Super Bowl. However, injuries have plagued them all season, on both sides of the ball. Garoppolo was completing 67.3% of his passes (4 TDs / 0 INTs) when he got hurt in Week 2. He returned last week but with the Miami Dolphins up 30-7 at halftime (Niners would lose 43-17), 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan pulled him during the half (concerned for his health). RB Raheem Mostert also returned and while the 49ers were embarrassed at home by Miami, Mostert ran for 90 yards on 11 carries (he has 238 yards on 7.0 YPC on the season). TE Kittle has been back the last two games and while he had just four catches in the rout, he had 15 catches the previous week vs Philly. WR Bourne has 15 catches in playing all five games (15.1 YPC) but the 49ers need WR Samuel to return to his rookie form. Is this the week? The defense has had a drop-off (no Bosa is HUGE) but even after last week's debacle, check in allowing 22.8 PPG on 323.0 YPG (not terrible numbers, by any stretch).

Here's the bottom line. With Seattle at 5-0 (is on a bye week) and the Rams at 4-1, the last-place 49ers would fall to 2-4 with a loss in this one, with the Rams moving to 5-1. After going 7-1 SU at home last season, the 49ers  are 0-3 at home so far in 2020 and this marks their THIRD straight home game. Talk about a "must win," if San Francisco has ANY designs on making the playoffs this season. Home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the TB Bucs at 4:25 ET.

It's a 'Battle of the Bays' on Sunday from Raymond James Stadium, as well as a showdown between two of this era's greatest QBs, Rodgers and Brady. The Green Bay Packers are 4-0 (also 4-0 ATS) and come off a bye week to meet the 3-2 Tampa Bay Bucs, who struggled to finish off their drives in a 20-19 Thursday Week 5 loss at Chicago. Those surprising Bears are 4-1 and right behind the Packers in the NFC North, while Tampa Bay is in a three-way tie for first in the NFC South with New Orleans and Carolina.

The Packers got good news this week, as their No. 1 WR Davante Adams will return for Sunday's game. Adams has sat out Green Bay's last two games with a hamstring injury, but had caught 17 passes for 192 yards with two TDs before sustaining his injury in a 42-21 rout of Detroit back on Sep 21. Adams has averaged 86 catches per season the last four years, while catching 40 TD passes. Getting Adams back is truly great news but with or without Adams, the Packers have had some start to the season. They are averaging a league-high 38.0 PPG, while ranking second in total offense (454.3 YPG), fourth in rushing (150.8 YPG) and fifth in passing (303.5 YPG). It's hard to argue against Brady being the G.O.A.T. but Rodgers is a special QB and in 2020 he's completed 70.5% for 1,214 yards with 13 TDs and not a single INT in 139 attempts. His QB rating of 128.4 is topped by only Russell Wilson's 129.8 RB Aaron Jones is having a terrific season, rushing for 374 yards (5.8 YPC) with four TDs, while catching 15 passes for two more TDs. Green Bay's defense has been pretty mediocre in allowing 25.3 PPG but when one's offense is averaging 38.0 PPG, it's good enough for the team to have an average margin of victory of 12.7 points (now wonder the Packers are 4-0 ATS).

The Bucs signed Brady to a two-year, $50 million contract in fully guaranteed money, despite the fact that he turned 43 in August. I guess that's the going rate for a six-time Super Bowl-winning QB. The biggest post-game talk in Tampa Bay's loss in Chicago was that Brady appeared to forget the downs on his team's last unsuccessful series, Not sure if that was the case or not but things went awry for him and the offense well before then. The Bucs committed 11 penalties and its OL not only allowed Brady to be sacked three times but he was pressured on a "way too high" percentage of his 41 passes. The Buccaneers scored 10 points in the first quarter, and couldn't match that for the game's remainder. I mentioned the team's inability to finish off drives at the top and that's reinforced by Tampa Bay settling for four FGs, three from inside of 40 yards. Brady's completed 64.3 % of his passes for 1,375 yards with 12 TDs and four INTs and has looked better than he did in his last couple of regular seasons with the Pats. RB Ronald Jones may not be quite as good as Green Bay's Aaron, but he has 359 rushing yards (4.9 YPC) and 15 catches, as well. WR Mike Evans has become Brady's favorite target, catching 22 passes with five TDs. Fellow WR Miller has 15 catches and averages a team-best 16.7 YPC. TE Howard (11 catches with two TDs) is sidelined but Gronk has 10 of his 12 catches this season in the last three games. Tampa's defense is allowing just 2898.2 YPG (second-best in the NFL), which is just over 80 yards less than last season's 'stop unit.' The Bucs allowed 27.8 PPG last season but that's down to a more respectable 22.4 PPG allowed in this VERY high-scoring season.

One CAN'T ignore that Green Bay's 4-0 SU and ATS mark has come against four opponents whose combined record is 5-15. Is it also noteworthy that Green Bay has failed to cover FOUR of its last five games when  returning from bye? I'm not so sure about that but I am sure that this is a HUGE game for the Bucs, which happens to be the team's LONE home game in a four-game span. It's possible that this could be the last regular-season meeting between Rodgers and Brady (they've met just TWICE before, with each winning once) and I'm backing the G.O.A.T.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

AFC North contests between the Browns and Steelers have always been heated given the teams' proximity and history but this first of two meetings here in 2020 draws extra meaning because the Browns have opened 4-1 for the first time since 1994 and the 4-0 Steelers are one of just FOUR unbeaten NFL teams. The QB matchup has more than a little intrigue as well, with some believing that Baker Mayfield (at 25) is blossoming into the franchise QB the Browns have been seeking for years. On the Pittsburgh side, the 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger has bounced back from elbow surgery a year ago to post a QB rating of 110.4 through four games, which would be teh highest for a career that began back in 2004 (note: Baker was NINE years old in 2004!). It's also  a game between the NFL top rushing offense (Cleveland is averaging an NFL-best 188.4 YPG)  going up against the NFL stingiest rush defense (Pittsburgh is allowing 64.0 YPG on the ground.

The Cleveland defense is clearly the team's Achilles' heel, allowing 29.8 PPG, which is a TD and two-point conversion higher than what Pittsburgh allows (21.8 PPG). However, since losing in Week 1 by the score of 38-6 to the Ravens, the Cleveland offense has been terrific, averaging 37.5 PPG. The Browns have scored at least 30 points in each of their four straight wins, the first time they have reached that total in four straight games since 1968 (can you say Leroy Kelly and Bill Nelson?). Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). However, since that Week 1 loss, Mayfield has turned into more of a "game-manager." He's completing 61.2% for 976 yards with nine TDs and four INTs. Those certainly aren't eye-popping numbers but they represent the efficiency and dependability that had been missing from Cleveland's QB position for what seemed like an eternity. Whether it's Hunt (347 yards on 5.0 YPC with 3 TDs / 11 catches with three TDs) or Chubb (335 yards on 5.9 YPC with 4 TDs). WRs OBJ (21 catches with three TDs) and Landry (21 catches but zero TDs) are quality targets but late Thursday afternoon it was announced that OBJ was sent home with an unexplained illness.

Big Ben is completing 69.9% for 1,016 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT (see above for his QB rating). RB Snell filled in for a less-than-100 percent James Connor in Week 1 with 113 yards but Connor then topped 100 yards rushing in consecutive games (Weeks 2 and 3) for the first time since the first half of 2018 (224 yards on 5.6 YPC with two TDs). However, he did have just 44 rushing yards with one TD in last week's win. WRs JuJu Smith-Shuster (21 catches / 3 TDs) and Diontae Johnson (15 catches / 1 TD) are part of a young and diverse pass-catching group that saw rookie which also features rookie Chase Claypool, who had  a breakout game vs the Eagles last Sunday. The Notre Dame product caught SEVEN passes for 110 yards with three TDs plus added a rushing tD. He now has 13 catches on the season, averaging 20.1 YPC with four receiving TDs. I noted Pittsburgh's rush D at the top but will add here that the Steelers rank third in the league in total defense, allowing 301.5 PPG.

I don't know the status of OBJ but Cleveland is also dealing with the following. Mayfield came out of last weekend's 32-23 win over Indianapolis with tender ribs and was limited in practice Wednesday, saying he was "sore ... but that is why we have the rest of the week until game day." In addition to Mayfield, safeties Ronnie Harrison (concussion) and Karl Joseph (hamstring) and receiver Jarvis Landry (hips/ribs) were out Wednesday, although head coach Kevin Stefanski said he expects Landry to return to practice this week. RB Kareem Hunt (thigh), who has been carrying the load with Nick Chubb hurt, was limited Wednesday.

This matchup surely qualifies as a rivalry but it sure is a ONE-SIDED one. Here's the rub. The Steelers have dominated this series dating back to 2004 (Big Ben's rookie year) with a 27-4-1 SU record (not much of an impost in this one!). Pittsburgh was a perfect 3-0 ATS in 2019 in home games inside the NFC North, while the Browns are a 'money-burning' 11-20 ATS in their last 31 games against their NFC foes. That includes a blowout loss at Baltimore in Week 1 and a win but non-cover at home vs the Bengals in Week 2. Lay the MORE than reasonable price!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic is on the LA Chargers at 8:15 ET.

The 1-3 LA Chargers are in New Orleans for a MNF contest against the 2-2 Saints. The Chargers drafted Philip Rivers back in 2004 and he took over as the team's starting QB in 2006 and started EVERY game for the team over the last 14 seasons. However, the Chargers only made the playoffs in TWO of the previous 10 seasons. He left via free agency with the Chargers drafting Oregon QB Justin Herbert with the sixth pick of the 1st round in the 2020 draft as his eventual replacement. Tyrod Taylor started in Week 1, a game the Chargers won 16-13 at Cincinnati. However, a team doctor accidentally punctured one of the Taylor's lungs, while attempting to administer a shot to Tyrod Taylor's ribs. Taylor has been sidelined ever since and while the Chargers have lost three in a row, don't blame Herbert. He's completing 72.0% for 931 yards in his three starts, with five TDs, three INTs and a QB rating of 102.2 (more later).

Herbert was just 6 years old when Drew Brees left his final game for the Chargers with a career-threatening shoulder injury. A decade-and-a-half later, they're set to be on opposite sidelines on MNF. Brees has broken about every passing record that matters since joining New Orleans in 2006. However, while Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. He enters this game completing 71.3% of his passes for 1,006 yards with eight TDs and two INTs for a 108.7 QB rating.

The Chargers will NOT have RB Austin Ekeler for this game due to a hamstring injury and that's NOT good news. He's run for 248 yards (5.1 YPC) and has 17 catches. UCLA rookie Joshua Kelley gets the start and he's run for 174 yards, averaging only 3.3 YPC. Herbert does have excellent receivers, headlined by Keenan Allen, who has 32 catches (the last three seasons, Allen has had 102, 97 and 104 catches with six TDs receptions in each season). Mike Williams may be back for this one and that would be great news. He had 49 catches (20.4 YPC) last season and 43 catches with 10 TDs in 2018. TE Henry has 18 catches, adding to Herbert's 'weapons.'

Speaking of WRs, the Saints are still listing Michael Thomas as questionable with a groin injury that has kept him out the last three games. Thomas caught 149 passes in 2019, an NFL record for the most in a single season. RB Alvin Kamara has been terrific, rushing for 236 yards with four TDs and grabbing a team-high 30 receptions for three TDs. Murray is an excellent backup, rushing for 184 yards with two TDs. Brees needs WRs Smith (14 catches / 2 TDs) and Sanders (14 catches / 2 TDs) to contribute more, if Thomas is not back.

Comparing the defenses shows that while the Chargers are allowing 373.8 YPG to the Saints' 334.3 YPG, LA is holding opponents to 23.8 PPG, while New Orleans is allowing 30.8 PPG (that's a full TD difference!). Herbert passed for over 300 yards in his first two starts and while he had 290 last week, he completed 20 of 25 passes with three TDs and one INT, giving him a QB rating of 137.9. Yes, the Chargers have lost three straight but they took defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City to OT and only a dropped lateral on the final play deprived them of a golden opportunity to pull out a Week 3 win over Carolina. Last week, they led Brady and the Bucs 24-7, before losing 38-31. Meanwhile, the Saints fell behind 14-0 early at Detroit, before scoring TDs on FIVE consecutive drives. Those things happen when a team is playing the sad-sack Lions, who have lost 12 of their last 13 games, going 3-10 ATS. The Chargers will battle you all the way and are 2-0 ATS as a road dog already this season. Take the big points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Min Vikings at 8:15 ET.

The Minnesota Vikings went 10-6 last season and as the NFC's No. 6 seed, played at New Orleans (No. 3 seed with a 13-3 record) and upset the Saints, 26-20 in OT. Seattle went 11-5 last season and captured the NFC's No. 5 seed and drew the NFC East champion Eagles, who they beat 17-9. Both teams then lost road games at San Francisco and Green Bay, respectively. These same two teams meet tonight in Seattle for SNF on NBC but their respective 2020 seasons have begun quite differently. The Vikings opened 0-3 before winning their first game of the season last Sunday 31-23 at Houston, which has opened 0-4. Meanwhile, Seattle has opened 4-0 SU and ATS. 

Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer has been known for his defense but this year's Vikings are allowing 31.3 PPG on 426.5 YPG. QB Kirk Cousins entered the current season off two excellent seasons, completing 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs (99.7 QB rating) in 2018 and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and six INTs (107.4 rating) last season. He played OK vs Green Bay in Week 1 (19 of 25 for 259 yards with two TDs and one INT / 118.6 QB rating) but that performance was dwarfed by Aaron Rodgers' 364 passing yards with four TDs in a 43-34 Green Bay win. Cousins struggled in Weeks 2 and 3 with FIVE interceptions but bounced back in the team's road win at Houston last Sunday, going 16 of 22 for 260 yards with one TD and zero INTs (127.1 rating). RB Dalvin Cook ran for just 113 yards in Minnesota's 0-2 SU and ATS start but for 311 yards (6.4 YPC) with three TDs in the Vikings' last two games (team is 2-0 ATS). Stefon Diggs has shuffled off to Buffalo but veteran Adam Thielen has 20 catches *(14.2 YPC) with four TDs and is loving the chance to mentor LSU rookie Jefferson, who has 15 catches, averaging 21.8 YPC. TE Rudolph, who has averaged 58 catches the last five years while catching 40 TDs, is off to a slow start (eight catches and one TD).

2020 has opened as "The Year of the QB" and it's hard to find anyone playing better than Seattle's Russell Wilson. He's completed 75.2% for 1,285 with 16 TDs and just two INTs (136.7 QB rating leads the NFL). He's tied Peyton Manning's record with 16 TD passes in the first four games and already has 16 completions of more than 20 yards and is averaging 9.4 YPA. RB Carson ran for just 21 yards in Week 1 but caught six passes with two going for TDs. The last three games, he's run for a solid 216 yards on 6.3 YPC. WRs Lockett (26 catches / 4 TDs) and Metcalf (16 catches / 25.2 YPC / 3 TDs) are a dynamic duo plus TE Olsen has 14 catches (one TD) and RB Carson 15 catches with three TDs. The issue has been Seattle's defense, which has allowed a league-high (meaning worst!) 476.8 YPG. The Seahawks have allowed 27.3 PPG, a figure which would likely be higher if their offense wasn't playing so well, which has kept opposing offenses off the field.

Seattle has a bye next week and would love nothing more than to head into that week off at 5-0. However, the history books tell us Seattle has NEVER started a season 5-0. As for the Vikings, a closer look at their season reveals that despite the team's 1-3 start, there's some optimism lying beneath the surface. Minnesota has been at its best inside the red zone booth offensively and defensively. The offense is tied for eighth in the NFL in goal-to-go TD rate (87.5%) and fifth in inside-the-20 TD rate (76.9%). The defense is seventh in goal-to-go TD rate (58.3%) and second in inside-the-20 TD rate (41.2%).

These teams are meeting for the FIFTH since 2015 (high number for non-division opponents), including last season in Seattle, when the Seahawks won 37-30 but were just a three-point favorite, Here, Minnesota gets a full TD and they'll get a break as CenturyLink Field (arguably the NFL's toughest home venue) will be silent outside of what gets piped through the stadium speaker system. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 5 Las Vegas Insider is on the Cle Browns at 4:25 ET.

Cleveland owner Art Modell relocated the Browns to Baltimore as the Ravens in 1996 and the Browns' franchise was reactivated in 1999. It's hardly been smooth sailing, as entering the current season, Cleveland had produced just TWO winning seasons in the previous 21 years, with ONE postseason appearance (2002). Don't look now but after the team's 49-38 win at Dallas last Sunday, the Browns are 3-1 on the season. It marks the first time they've been 3-1 since the 2001 season. Cleveland welcomes the Indianapolis Colts to town on Sunday, who are also off to a 3-1 start. With Andrew Luck finally succumbing to his injuries, the Colts opened the current season with just ONE winning season in its previous five, so their start is almost as surprising as Cleveland's. BOTH teams lost their Week 1 contests, with each ripping off THREE straight wins since.

The "big news' for Indy in the offseason was the FA signing of Philip Rivers to play QB. Rivers has been solid (72.7% for 984 yards with four TDs and three INTs / QB rating of 97.3) but his performance has been DWARFED by the OUTSTANDING early-season performances by so many starting QBs in 2020. Rivers has seen five players catch 10 or more passes (a sixth has nine receptions), with RB Hines leading the team with 16 receptions (he has averaged only 6.1 YPC) but WR Cox has been the most effective (11 catches / 17.6 YPC / 2 TDs). The running game hasn't helped much, averaging just 115.3 YPG on 3.5 YPC, as rookie Jonathan Taylor is underachieving so far (250 yards on 3.8 YPC). However, the Indy defense leads the league in both scoring and total yards, allowing 14.0 PPG on 236.3 YPG.

The Cleveland defense is clearly the team's Achilles' heel, allowing 31.5 PPG on 402.3 YPG. However, since losing in Week by the score of 38-6 to the Ravens, the Cleveland offense has been terrific, averaging 39.3 PPG. Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looking promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did  win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). However, since that Week 1 loss, Mayfield has turned into a "game-manager," completing 51 of 76 pass attempts (67.1 percent) for 540 yards with six TDs and just one interception. While those certainly aren't eye-popping numbers, they represent the efficiency and dependability that had been missing from Cleveland's quarterback position for what seemed like an eternity. 

Cleveland's front office has invested heavily in its OL in recent years and those investments have paid immediate dividends in the pass-protection department. Mayfield has been sacked just six times through four games and hasn't been taken down more than twice in the same contest (note: He was sacked 40 times in 2019). The OL is also helping a 'deep. RB corps which currently leads the NFL in rushing (204.5 YPG / 5.9 YPC). Chubb (335 yards / 5.9 YPC / 4 TDs) and Hunt (275 yards / 5.5 YPC / 3 TDs) are a 'deadly duo' but when Chubb got hurt last week, D'Ernest Johnson (13 carries, 95 yards) stepped up and the running gamer NEVER missed a beat. WRs Beckham and Landry may not be getting force-fed the ball as they were last season but they're still capable of taking over games. Landry had five catches for 48 yards Sunday, while OBJ had a vintage performance against the Cowboys, He caught five passes for 81 yards (2 TDs) and ran for 73 yards, including a 50-yard TD run.

This contest is Cleveland's ONLY home game in a four-week span (played at Dallas last Sunday and will play at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati in Weeks 6 and 7). I never thought I'd say this in 2020 but I'm starting to believe Cleveland has a team that could make the playoffs. One of the biggest reasons for Cleveland's collapse in 2019 was the ineptitude of head coach Freddie Kitchens. He never seemed to have a reliable game plan, he too often put his offense on the shoulders of second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield, and he forged a culture completely devoid of accountability. However, new head coach Kevin Stefanski has steered a steady ship since Week 1 against Baltimore. The Browns have been racking up points, in part because Stefanski has been putting them in position to do so. While the defense has given up a 'ton' of yards, the Browns lead the NFL with 10 takeaways, as well as leading the league in TO margin (plus-6). Not sure why Indy opened as the road favorite in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My Oddsmaker's Error is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET.

The Panthers opened the season with back-to-back losses plus saw the team's MVP, RB Christian McCaffrey, go down with an injury during Week 2's loss. However, Teddy Bridgewater is showing promise as a long-term replacement for Cam Newton at QB, plus RB Mike Davis (in his 7th season) is flourishing as a short-term substitute for McCaffrey. The Panthers are 2-0 without McCaffrey and travel to Atlanta on Sunday to face the winless Falcons (0-4). Atlanta couldn't handle Russell Wilson in Week (no other team has either) but then blew HUGE leads in losing back-to-back games at Dallas and home to the Bears. The Falcons then lost this past Monday night 30-16 in Green Bay, as Rodgers ripped them for four TD passes..

Are the Panthers emerging as a surprise contender in the NFC South? A loss here would negate that theory. Bridgewater has completed 73.1% of his passes for 1,147 yards but has a modest four TD passes (also three INTs). He went 5-0 as a starter in New Orleans last season when Brees missed time and enters this game 18-8 as starting QB since 2015. mike Davis has done little in his first six NFL seasons but he's started the last two weeks, gaining 130 yards on 29 carries (4.5 YPC).Bridgewater has a trio of WRs that are not bad at all, with free agent pickup Robby Anderson's 28 catches being among the leaders through four weeks, plus Moore (18 catches / 16.0 YPC) and Samuel (14 catches) also contributing. The defense allowed 65 points in opening 0-2 but has allowed just 37 points in the team's back-to-back wins.

Matt Ryan, who somehow earned the nickname "Matty Ice," despite winning NOTHING, can still throw the ball. He's passed for 1,246 yards through four games, with seven TDs and just two INTs. He's got plenty of receivers, including Julio Jones, who is one of the best when healthy. He missed the second half against Green Bay after aggravating a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the previous week against Chicago. He has 15 catches in 2 1/2 games and has a history of finding a way to play games after missing practice time because of injuries. Fellow WRs Ridley (21 catches / 16.6 YPC / 4 TDs) and Gage (19 catches) are excellent options, as is TE Hurst (13 catches / 2 TDs). Todd Gurley was a key FA pickup but so far has been average (254 rushing yards on 3.9 YPC) but does have four TDs. The defense is another story, ranking 31st (of 32 teams) in points allowed (34.5 per) and total yards (448.3 YPG).

The Falcons won their last four games last season to save head coach Dan Quinn's job but after an 0-4 start in 2020, Quinn's job status is again the subject of weekly speculation. It could be "win or else" here for Quinn, considering the Falcons have owned this series over the past four seasons, going 7-1 SU & ATS. That includes 29-3 and 40-20 victories a year ago. Carolina is just 8-17 ATS (32%) against NFC South opponents its last 25. The line says WIN and COVER for Atlanta and that's my bet!

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* AFC Game of the Month is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

The Houston Texans win the AFC South with a 10-16 record last season, the team's FOURTH division title in a  five-year span. Houston would edge Buffalo 23-20 (OT) in the wild card round in 2019 and then went to KC, where it took a 24-0 lead over the Chiefs, before getting run over by Patrick Mahomes and Co. KC would score the game's next 41 points, on their way to a 51-31. I realize that Bill O'Brien was the team's head coach in each of the team's four division-winning seasons but NEVER warmed to him as a head coach. I was really surprised that following that loss to the Chiefs, the Texans appointed O'Brien to the role of general manager. Houston had gone the entire 2019 season with the position vacant. During the offseason, O'Brien traded DeAndre Hopkins (the team's best receiver) to the Arizona Cardinals, a move that was heavily criticized. Star defensive end J.J. Watt wouldn't address reports that he got into a verbal altercation with O'Brien in practice two weeks ago but he did say that he thought a team with Deshaun Watson at quarterback needed a change after the 0-4 start. O'Brien was fired by the Texans on October 5, 2020. Team owner Cal McNair then made Romeo Crennel the team's interim coach for the rest of this season. Crennel has been an assistant for O'Brien since 2014 and has coached both the Browns and the Chiefs in an NFL and college career spanning 50 years (more on him later).

Visiting Houston on Sunday will be the 1-3 Jacksonville Jaguars. QB Gardner Minshew took over for an injured Nick Foles as a rookie last season and showed plenty of promise. He has opened his sophomore season completing 72.1 percent for 1,138 yards with eight TDs and four INTs (101.2 QB rating). The Jags have a shaky OL with Minshew being sacked 13 times. He also gets little help from his running game, which is averaging just 104.3 YPG. The team's best WR, DJ Chark (73 catches and 8 TDS as a rookie), returned in Week 4, after missing Week 3's game. He had EIGHT catches last Sunday, giving him 15 (in three games), averaging 13.6 YPC with three TDs (two came last week). WRs Cole (19 catches / 10.2 YPC / 2 TDs) and Shenault (16 catches / 11.9 YPC / one TD) are decent 'helpers.' The Jacksonville D is allowing 399.5 YPG and also 29.3 PPG (not good).

Watson signed a HUGE extension before the season and the Texans didn't expect an 0-4 starts. Watson is completing 65.6% for 1,092 yards with six TDs and three INTs (solid but NOT what Houston needs). He's also added very little 'with his legs,' rushing for only 58 yards (3.4 YPC) without a TD. The overall running game is a mess, as David Johnson looked good in Week 1 (77 yards on 11 carries) but he's gained only 120 yards the last three games on 40 attempts (3.0 YPC). Houston misses Hopkins but Fuller (18 catches / 15.2 YPC / 2 TDs) is excellent plus veterans Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks have been excellent receivers in this league. TE Akins (14 catches with one TD), is MORE than adequate. The defense allows 393. YPG and 31.5 PPG. Do I need to add a comment?

Getting back to Crennel, his head coaching record in the NFL is 'ugly.' He is 28-55 (.337) in five-plus seasons with the Browns and Chiefs but he's had an excellent history as an assistant, being part of coaching staffs that won FIVE Super Bowl titles. Parcells and Belichick may have had something to do with that. He's well-liked and while he is NOT the long-term solution for Houston, I say he's just perfect for this underachieving team, right now. Let me note that Houston may be 0-4 but the Texans opened the season with KC (4-0), Baltimore (3-1) and Pittsburgh (3-0). Of course, there's NO excuse for last week's loss to the previously winless Vikings. However, Minnesota was a playoff team in 2019. 

Anyway, I'm expecting a great effort from Houston and for the Jaguars to play the perfect foil. It seems like light years ago that the Jags led the Pats in New England in the AFC championship game in the mid-fourth quarter, before falling 24-20. However, that was actually the 2017 season, The Jags opened 3-1 in 2018 but then 'imploded,' going 2-10 the rest of the way. A 6-10 season followed in 2019 and the team's 1-3 start this season means the Jags are 9-23 since that 3-1 start in 2018, including 4-13 on the road. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

 My NFL 10* Thursday Night Game of the Month is on the TB Bucs at 8:20 ET.

You may just have heard that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Tom Brady in the offseason hoping the six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback could help them end a 12-year playoff drought. The 43-year-old Brady saw his production dip in his 20th and final season in New England but was able to sign a two-year, fully guaranteed $50 million contract with the Bucs. He was 'off' in Tampa Bay's season-opening loss at New Orleans, as he had two badly-thrown INTs, one of which was returned for a TD in a 34-23 loss. However, he's led the Bucs to THREE straight wins since that defeat, completing 65.5% with nine TDs and just two INTs. The Bucs have averaged 32.3 PPG in their winning streak, with an average margin of victory of 13 points!

The Bucs are in Chicago Thursday night for a game with the Bears, who opened the season 3-0, before struggling badly on offense in a 19-11 Week 4 loss at home to the Colts. The game wasn't as close as the final indicates, as the Bears trailed 19-3 before scoring a TD (and added a two-point conversion) with just 1:35 left in the game. Nick Foles replaced the obviously overrated Trubisky in Week 3 vs the Falcons, rallying the Bears from a 26-10 deficit to a 30-26 win. Foles threw three TD passes in the final 6 1/2 minutes of that contest but couldn't get the Bears into the end zone last Sunday until just under two minutes to go. In fairness, the Colts do own the NFL best defense early on in NFL 2020, allowing league-lows in points (14.0 per) and total yards (236.3 per).

Brady lost his favorite target in 2020, as TE Howard was lost for the season in last week's game. However, stepping in at TE will be a familiar face to Brady, Rob Gronkowski. WR Evans has loved the acquisition of Brady, grabbing 17 receptions with five TDs. Also, Miller (15 catches / 16.7 YPC / 1 TD) and Godwin (11 catches / 13.0 YPC / 1 TD) also not exactly slouches. RB Jones is off a very good season and is rounding into form with 253 rushing yards (4.4 YPC) and 12 catches. Brady loves to use his RBs as receivers and Sean McCoy (nine catches) and Leonard Fournette (seven catches) are reaping the benefits.

Foles played a Super Bowl for the ages when he led the Eagles to a 41-33 win against the Patriots (and Brady) in Super Bowl LII. He was the game's MVP completing 28-of-43 passes for 373 yards and three touchdowns plus caught a 1-yard TD pass on the “Philly Special" trick play that ranks as one of the most famous plays in NFL history. However, Foles has NEVER reached those heights again and will likely NEVER do so again. The Bears have a modest running game and it was all but completely shut down by the Colts, who held them to 28 rushing yards on 16 carries. Other than Allen Robinson (25 catches / 13.2 YPC / 2 TDs), the Bears have no receivers of note.

Yes, the Bears opened 3-0 but those wins came over the Lions, Giants and Falcons, who have combined to go 1-11 SU. I doubt Brady is thinking "Super Bowl revenge" against Foles, but one never knows. What we do know is that when Brady overcame a 17-point deficit to beat the Los Angeles Chargers 38-31 last week, he became the NFL's all-time regular-season victories leader (222), regardless of position. In the Bears, Brady will face a team that's never beaten him, as he's 5-0 with 1,595 passing yards, 14 TD passes and just four interceptions against Chicago. All in all, the Bucs seem like a strong play as a small road favorite in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC East last season and opened the 2020 season by taking a 17-0 lead over Washington in Week 1. However, NOTHING has gone right since that time. Washington would score that game's final 27 points, as the Eagles lost 27-17 to a team that went  3-13 in 2019 and has lost both games this season since beating the Eagles by 15 and 14 points (allowed 30 and 24 points). The 49ers were in last year's Super Bowl and held a 20-10 lead over KC with under 6 1/2 minutes left in the game. However, the Chiefs 'exploded' for three TDs in just a five-minute span, for a 31-20 victory. The Niners were upset at home in Week 1 by the Arizona Cardinals 24-20, as a seven-point favorite. San Francisco has rebounded with back-to-back wins the last two Sundays 31-13 and 36-9 but those wins have come at MetLife Stadium against the pathetic Jets and Giants (a combined 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS).

Philly QB Carson Wentz entered this season having thrown just seven INTs in each of his last three seasons, while passing for 81 TDs. However, he enters Sunday with the lowest passer rating in the NFL at 63.9 and has already thrown six interceptions. RB Miles Sanders missed Week 1 but has returned to rush for 190 yards (5.0 YPC) and one TD, while catching seven passes for 48 yards. He's an important cog, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). Wentz has a dynamic TE duo, Ertz (15 catches / one TD) and Goedert (13 catches / one TD). However, the Philly defense HAS to improve, as the Eagles have not forced a SINGLE turnovers on defense through 13 quarters this season (Eagles did recover a fumble on a punt return last week).

Jimmy G got hurt in Week 2 and remains out. Nick Mullens started in Week 3, completing 25 of 36 for 343 yards with one TD and zero INTs (108.9 QB rating). Top RB Mostert remains out and McKinnon gets the call again. He's gained 139 yards (6.9 YPC) with two TDs so far but had just 38 yards on 14 attempts in Week 3. The Niners have dealt with key injuries this season, including Garoppolo, TE George Kittle, CB Richard Sherman, 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa, RB Mostert and No. 1 receiver Deebo Samuel. The good news is that Kittle and Samuel will be back this week. The bad news is that TE Jordan Reed (11 catches with two TDs) joined RB Tevin Coleman on injured reserve.

"Right now we're not a very good football team," Philly head coach Doug Pederson said. "We're not very smart. We're shooting ourselves in the foot. We're leaving touchdowns on the field offensively, and we're just not executing." I'm NOT ready to give up on Wentz. Facing an 0-3 start for the first time since 1999 last Sunday, Wentz drove the Eagles 75 yards in the final three minutes. He picked up nine yards on third-and-6 to the Bengals 19 and then ran in from the seven with a head-first dive into the end zone. Elliott's extra point tied it with 21 seconds left. However, neither team could do anything in overtime. San Francisco has been a  poor home favorite, going just 7-17-1 ATS in that role its last 25 tries. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 4 Las Vegas Insider is on the LV Raiders at 4:25 ET.

The Buffalo Bills are one of seven NFL teams still unbeaten (3-0) and will travel to Las Vegas in Week 4 for a game with the 2-1 Raiders. The Bills blew a 28-3 third-quarter lead last Sunday at home against the Rams but then got 'bailed out' by a 'phantom' defensive pass-interference call that allowed Josh Allen to complete a three-yard TD pass with 15 seconds to go (Bills won 35-32). Meanwhile, the Raiders lost for the first time in 2020, falling 36-20 in New England to the Pats. 

Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. Buffalo has won its first three games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1991-92. Most would say that QB Josh Allen has had an up-and-down start to his NFL career in 2018 and 2019 but as I've noted before, he did become just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. What all will agree upon is that here in 2020, he's taken his game to another level. He's completing 71.1% for 1,038 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 124.8). The acquisition of WR Stefon Diggs (formerly of the Vikings) has been HUGE. Diggs has 20 catches and two TDs plus along with returning WRs Beasley (15 catches / 15.4 YPC) and Brown (10 catches / 15.2 YPC / 2 TDs), Allen has quite a trio. A concern is Buffalo's defense, which after allowing just 16.2 PPG in 2019, has allowed 25.7 PPG after three games of 2020.

Jon Gruden is in his second stint with the Raiders, with a stop in between in Tampa Bay with the Bucs (won the Super Bowl in his first season back in the 2002 season) and a VERY successful career in the TV booth. The Raiders were just 4-12 in his first season (2018) and 7-9 last season, However, the Raiders are now playing out of Las Vegas and things are looking up, although they do play in the AFC West with the KC Chiefs. QB Derek Carr has looked VERY good through three games, completing 74.0% for 784 yards with six TDs and zero INTs in 100 attempts (QB rating of 116.4).  RB Josh Jacobs had a terrific rookie season (1,150 yards on 4.7 YPC with 7 TDs) and while his start is more modest in 2020 (252 yards on 3.7 YPC with 3 TDs), this guy is "a player!" TE Waller is Carr's top target with 20 catches (just one TD) but he's averaging only 7.9 YPC (that HAS to improve). Defense has not been a Las Vegas strength, as the Raiders are allowing 30.0 PPG on 406. YPG.

I have great respect for the Bills but the Raiders beat the Saints in their only previous game in their brand-new stadium, 34-24 back in Week 2 on MNF. Buffalo's defense allowed Miami to score 28 and the Rams to score 32 (no one counts team's win over the Jets) and Carr and the Raiders can match scores with Allen and the Bills. I'm backing the home dog, as the Bills suffer their first loss of 2020.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Dal Cowboys at 1:00 ET.

The Cowboys opened the 2020 season with a new head coach for the first time in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green Bay in the season) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherited what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owns just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade.  Dallas welcomes the Browns to "Jerry's House" on Sunday just 1-2, with each of its first three games being decided in the final minute. A questionable offensive PI call prevented Dallas an opportunity to kick a game-tying FG at the end of its Week 1 game at the Rams (lost 20-17) and then Dallas overcame a 39-24 deficit at home to the Falcons in Week 2, scoring the game's final 16 points inside the last five minutes of the 4thb quarter (game-winning FG in a 40-39 victory came at 0:00). Dallas then overcame a 30-15 deficit at Seattle to take a 31-30 lead, only to see Seattle score with 1:47 to go. Down 38-31, Dallas drove to Seattle's 26-yard line, when Prescott was picked off to end the game.

We ALL know the plight of the Cleveland Browns, who won just four games from 2015-17.However, Baker Mayfield threw two TD passes, Nick Chubb ran for two more scores and the Browns moved over .500 for the first time since 2014 with a 34-20 win Sunday over the Washington Football Team in Week 3. First-year head coach Kevin Stefanski has the Browns 2-1 for the first time since 2011. It's also the first time they've had a winning record since Week 14 in 2014, as Cleveland had gone 90 consecutive weeks without a winning record. As the ad once said, "Is it Real or is it Memorex?"

Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did  win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). Mayfield has thrown for a modest 564 yards in three games (5 TDs / 2 INTs / QB rating of 91.5), as Cleveland's running game has been terrific. Chubb has 292 yards (5.7 YPC) and four TDs, while Hunt has 204 yards (5.2 YPC), giving the NFL's third-best rushing total (170.3 YPG on 5.2 YPC).

Speaking of RBs, Dallas' Zeke Elliott, a two-time rushing champion, has a modest 219 yards on YPC. Dallas QB Dak Prescott finished 37 of 57 for 472 yards, with three touchdowns and two interceptions against Seattle setting career highs for yards and attempts. However, Dallas lost. Prescott has topped 400 yards passing his last two games (is averaging 396.0 YPG on the season) but is that really helping? Better balance is a MUST plus the Dallas defense has been dreadful the last two weeks, allowing 39 and 38 points

The Cowboys have failed to cover 10 of their last 12 as a non-division home favorite but backing the Browns on the road is NOT an option. Yes, they own a winning record (2-1) for the FIRST time in 91 weeks but is that really a 'buy' sign? Cleveland's two wins have come over 0-2-1 Cincinnati (2-14 in 2019) and 1-2 Washington (3-13 in 2019) and come in  5-36 SU on the road since the start of the 2015 season (also: Browns are 6-15 ATS their last 21 vs NFC foes). Cowboys "get this one right" and win "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC Game of the Month is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

The 1-2 New Orleans Saints visit the 1-2 Detroit Lions on Sunday. The Saints come in off back-to-back losses, having lost consecutive games for the first time in THREE years. As for the Lions, they are well familiar with consecutive losses but Detroit just ended an 11-game, 11-month losing streak with last Sunday's 26-23 upset of the Cardinals in the desert (game-winning 39-yard FG came on the game's final play).

The Saints had hoped that WR Michael Thomas would return from a groin injury that has kept him out the last two games but he was ruled out late Friday. Thomas caught 149 passes in 2019, an NFL record for the most in a single season. He's been missed, although Brees is completing 70.2% for 760 yards with six TDs and just one INT (106.2 QB rating). In fact, while Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. RB Alvin Kamara didn't agree to a contract extension until right before the opening of the 2020 season but he enters this game leading the Saints in rushing with 153 yards and three TDs plus also leads the team in receiving with 27 catches for 285 yards and three TDs (he owns NFL-high six TDs from scrimmage).

The Lions finally ended an 11-game slide with last Sunday's win. The Lions were outgained 377-322 by the Cardinals, as the game's key stat was Detroit picking off Arizona QB Kyler Murray three times, while the Detroit offense did not turn the ball over even once. Matt Stafford had a solid game (270 yards passing with two TDs) but Detroit is still struggling to run the ball. Adrian Peterson is the team's featured back but Detroit ran for just 90 yards against the Cards, averaging 3.3 YPG. A.P. has 209 yards rushing (4.9 YPV) but does not have a rushing TD and the team comes in rushing for only 105.7 YPG. Detroit's defense is allowing 30.7 PPG on 409.3 YPG (both totals rank near the bottom of all NFL teams).

Embattled Detroit head coach Matt Patricia could really use  two straight victories, as Green Bay and Chicago are both 3-0 atop the NFC North. "It's a huge difference between being 2-2 and the alternative," Lions running back Adrian Peterson acknowledged. He's got that right. Getting back to New Orleans, the Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). The Saints sure don't want to fall to 1-3 and New Orleans does enter this contest having gone 12-4 (75%) ATS its last 16 as a road favorite. As for the Lions, they did eke out a win last week but as noted, that ended an 11-game losing streak in which they were 2-9 ATS. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

It's NOT exactly Brady vs Brees like in Week 1, when the Bucs played the Saints but  Sunday's Week contest between the Jags and Browns will feature Garner Minshew vs Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow. Minshew took over for an injured Nick Foles as a rookie last season and showed plenty of promise. He opened his sophomore season completing 73.8 percent for 787 yards with six TDs and three INTs (101.3 QB rating). You may just have heard about Burro, last year's Heisman winner who led LSU to a 15-0 season and the national championship, then was the overall No. 1 pick by the Bengals. He has opened his rookie season completing 64.5 percent for 821 yards with five TDs and just one INT (more modest 89.0 QB rating). Both QBs have shaky offense lines, leading Minshew to be sacked 10 times and Burrow has suffered 14 sacks. Neither QB gets much help from their respective running games, as the Jags are averaging 109.3 YPG on the ground, while the Bengals are averaging a woeful 79.3 YPG.

The Jags no longer have RB Fournette, who topped 1,000 yards rushing in TWO of his three seasons with the Jags, including 1,152 last year.  Rookie James Robinson has become the team's featured back and has 210 yards on the ground with all three of the team's rushing TDs on a solid 4.9 YPC. He's also added 10 catches for 129 yards. So far, he's been a better-than-expected replacement. Good news for the Jags is that DJ Chark (73 catches and 8 TDS as a rookie), is expected to play, after missing last week's game (7 catches / 15.6 YPC / 1 TD). Fellow WRs Cole has 15 catches and to TDs but averages only 9.9 YPC, while Shenault has 11 catches and one TD but averages only 9.5 YPC. The Jacksonville D is allowing a middle-of-the-pack 364.3 YPG but also 28.0 PPG.

Cincy RB Mixon has 164 yards rushing (about 70% of the team's total, while averaging just 3.2 YPC. Bernard is listed as a RB but has just TWO carries on the season and he's basically a receiving option out of the backfield (12 catches) in 2020. WR Boyd leads with 21 catches and former star Green has 13 catches but a sad 8.9 YPC average. His first five seasons he averaged 983 catches per, topping 1,000 yards in each while hauling in 45 TDs. If Burrow can't get him back in form, Green may soon be an ineffective player. The Cincy D is allowing 392.3 YPG but a few less points than Jacksonville's D, at 24.7 PPG.

It seems like light years ago that the Jags led the Pats in New England in the AFC championship game in the mid-fourth quarter, before falling 24-20. However, that was actually the 2017 season, The Jags opened 3-1 in 2018 but then 'implode,' going 2-10 the rest of the wat-y. A 6-10 season followed in 2019 and the team's 1-2 start this season means the Jags are 9-22  since that 3-1 start in 2018, including 4-12 on the road. The Bengals made FIVE straight postseason appearances under QB Andy Dalton from 2011-15 but lost each time in their first playoff game. FOUR straight losing seasons followed, including 2019's 2-14 disaster. That gave them the No. 1 pick, which the team used to take Burrow.

How will the "Burrow era" play out? TBD. The Bengals have plenty of weaknesses but they've been in ALL three games, losing 16-13 at home to the Chargers in Week 1 (led 13-6 in the 4th quarter), 35-30 at Cleveland in Week 2 and almost beat the Eagles last Sunday in Philly, settling for a 23-23 tie in OT (Eagles tied the game on a 75-yard TD drive with 21 seconds to go).  I REALLY like what I've seen from Burrow and I'm betting that Week 4 will 'be the charm,' as Joe gets his first NFL win as a starting QB.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

Is tonight's Kansas City/Baltimore game a preview of this season's AFC championship game? Maybe so, but note it was the one everyone expected to see last January. However, the Ravens (-10) were upset 28-12 at home by the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round and advanced to the AFC championship game where they lost 35-24 to the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Both teams have opened 2-0 in 2020 and while the Chiefs come in as the defending champs, the Ravens will enter this game on a 14-game regular season winning streak, with an average winning margin of  18.8 PPG! It pits 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes against 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson. Mahomes led the Chiefs to their first NFL championship since 1970 last season and was the Super Bowl MVP, while Jackson (36-6 TD/INT ratio and 113.3 QB rating) guided the Ravens to a 14-2 regular-season record, set the league mark for yards rushing by a QB (1,206 yards  / 6.9 YPA / 7 TDs) and directed the most prolific running attack in NFL history (206.0 YPG) . Are you ready for some football?

The Chiefs were dominant in their season opener, a 34-20 home win over Houston. Mahomes passed for a modest 211 yards but threw three TD passes (zero INTs) for a QB rating of 123.3, while rookie RB Edwards-Helaire ran for 138 yards and a TD. However, the Chiefs were lucky to escape with a win at LA vs the Chargers in Week 2, needing PK Harrison Butker's two field goals of 58 yards last week in an overtime win. Mahomes had 302 yards passing (2 TDs / 0 INTs) but Edwards-Helaire had only 38 yards rushing on 10 carries. The KC defense has allowed 419.5 YPG but just 20 points in each win.

It's hard to say a team off a 14-2 year has something to prove this season but that's the case with the Ravens. They routed the Browns 38-6 in Week 1 and then had little trouble with the Texans in Week 2, winning 33-16. Jackson has completed 77.6% of his passes for 479 yards with four TDs, no INTS and a QB rating of 134.6. He's added 99 yards rushing but no TDs) for a running game averaging 170.5 PPG on 5.1 YPC. Three RBs are sharing carries, Edwards has 90 yards (6.4 YPC) with one TD, Ingram 84 yards (4.4 YPC) with one TD and rookie Dobbins has 70 yards (9.8 YPC) with two TDs. The Baltimore D is not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG) last season and through two games of 2020, ranked T-2 in yards allowed (305.0 YPG) and 1st in points allowed (11:0 PPG).

The Ravens have been waiting since 2017 to have a Monday night game at home but now that they got one, they'll be forced to play without the backing of their fans (zero in attendance because of the pandemic). These teams met in Week 3 last season, as the Chiefs built a 23-6 halftime lead, before holding off a late Baltimore comeback (KC won, 33-28). The Ravens have won 14 straight regular season games but the Chiefs will bring an 11-game winning streak into Monday night's showdown (eight straight in the regular season / 3-0 playoff run last year) and while Jackson 21-3 as a starter during the regular season, with TWO of those losses coming against Kansas City. This is NOT a playoff game but it sure has that kind of atmosphere. Mahomes is 4-1 in the postseason (13-2 TD/INT ratio and 106.6 QB rating), while Jackson is 0-2 in the postseason, completing 51.1% with three TDs and three INTs for a 68.3 QB rating. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.

The Saints are back in primetime for teh second straight week, as they welcome the 2-0 Packers to New Orleans for Sunday Night Football on NBC. The Packers own two impressive wins, 43 34 at Minnesota (game was not as close as the final score) and 42-12 at home over the Lions. The Saints opened with a 34-23 home win over TB 12 and the Bucs in Week 1 but then lost by almost that exact same score (34-24) at Las Vegas on MNF to the Raiders in Week 2. BOTH teams are coming off 13-3 seasons in 2019. 

Aaron Rodgers has long ago 'punched his ticket' to Canton but while he threw for 4,002 yards last season (26-4 TD/INT ratio), the Packers averaged a middle-of-the-pack 23.5 PPG on 345.5 YPG. RB Aaron Jones was great (1,084 rushing yards with 16 TDs plus 49 catches with 3 TDs), as was WR Davante Adams (83 catches / 5 TDs), but those two were his only "playmakers." The defense allowed 352.6 PPG (18th) but held opponents to 19.6 PPG (9th).

Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. The Saints added WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency to a receiver group led by All-Pro Michael Thomas, who caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. Brees' other favorite targets include veteran TE Jared Cook (43 catches and 9 TDs to tie Thomas for the team lead) and RB Alvin Kamara (81 catches). Kamara led the team in rushing with 797 yards on 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs. 

Rodgers has thrown for 604 yards in the two wins with six TDPs and zero INTs (119.4 QB rating). Jones looks to be even better this season, running for 234 yards on 6.9 YPC with three TDs, while catching eight passes with another TD. Adams is a possession receiver with 17 catches and two TDs, while Valedes-Scantling ( 7catches / 22.9 YPC) and Lazard ( 7 catches / 15.4 YPC) have helped Rodgers stretch the field.

Brees had two TDs passes in Week 1 (no picks) but threw for just 160 yards. He got very little help from his running game as Alvin Kamara, who FINALLY agreed to a long-term deal with the club right before the start of the season, ran for just 16 yards on 12 carries (he did catch five balls for 51 yards. Murray added 49 yards rushing but the Saints had just 82 yards rushing for the game. Brees threw for 312 yards on MNF but a 17-7 first-half lead was wiped away as the Raiders outscored teh Saints 27-7 from the last second quarter through the end of the game. The good news was that Kamara ran for 95 yards and caught NINE passes. The bad news is that Thomas sat out the Saints' loss in Las Vegas with an ankle sprain and did not take the field when the Saints returned to practice on Thursday. Brees can always rely on TE Cook but he'll need the veteran Sanders plus two young WRs (Smith and Harris) to step up.

Green Bay WR receiver Davante Adams left last Sunday's victory over Detroit with a hamstring injury. Rodgers will need him close to 100 percent in this one. Yes, Green Bay is 2-0 but its wins are over a pair of 0-2 teams in the Vikings and Lions, who are a combined 0-4 ATS to open the 2020 season. The Saints enter this contest on a 12-4 (75%) ATS run over their last 16 regular season games. The Saints own an excellent rush D (3.3 YPC) and slowing down Jones could be the key to a victory.

I had the Saints in Week 1, went against them in Week 2 with the Raiders and I'm now back "on" them here vs The Pack.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

Big Ben missed all but SIX quarters of the 2019 season with an elbow injury that required surgery. Pittsburgh waa forced to use two QBs, Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, who had never appeared in an NFL game. The Pittsburgh offense scored only 13 offensive TDs in the team's final 10 games and were the only NFL team to NOT score 30 points in any game. Big Ben is back healthy in 2020 and Pittsburgh has opened 2-0.

While the Steelers failed to make the playoffs for a second straight season in 2019, the Houston Texans went 10-6 in winning the AFC South for the FOURTH time in the last five seasons. The Texans beat the Buffalo Bills in a wild card game and then jumped out to a 24-0 lead over the KC Chiefs in the Divisional Round, before the Mahomes-led Chiefs came back to win 51-31. The Texans and Titans were expected to go head to-head this season in the AFC South but while Tennessee has opened 2-0, Houston has started 0-2.

QB Deshaun Watson signed 4 a four-year, $177 million contract extension with the Texans on September 5 but has done little in the first two losses. He's thrown for 528 yards with two TDs and two INTs for a QB rating of 87.1. RB David Johnson showed signs of returning to previous form in Week 1 (77 yards on 7.0 YPC) but was held to just 34 yards on 11 carries (3.4 YPC) in Week 2. WR DeAndre Hopkins is gone (104 catches with seven TDs last season) but Watson still has an excellent set of receivers in WRs Cooks, Fuller and Cobb plus TEs Akins and Fells. Defensively, Houston has struggled, allowing 33.5 PPG. However, that may just have something to do with having had to face KC and Baltimore in the season's first two weeks (more later).

Big Ben has returned with vengeance, completing 68.5% for 540 yards with five TDs and one INT (107.1 QB rating). RB Snell was the star in Week 1 (113 yards) but Connor was healthier by Week 2 and he was the featured back with 106 yards. Pittsburgh was able to go "Back to Future" with its defense in 2019, reminding some of the old "Steel Curtain!" Pittsburgh was fifth in total yards allowed in 2019 (304.1 YPG) and was T-5th in points allowed (18.9 PPG). The team's 20 INTs was 2nd-best in the NFL and its 54 sacks ranked 1st. Pittsburgh has opened the current season allowing 18.5 PPG (T-5th) on 305.0 YPG (T-2nd), including allowing 66.5 YPG rushing to rank 1st.

However, one MUST consider the fact that the Steelers are 2-0 with wins over the Giants and Broncos, who are BOTH 0-2. Meanwhile, the Texans have faced the NFL's two-best teams in 2020, the defending champion Chiefs and the Ravens, who were the NFL's best regular season team with a 14-2 record last season. Don't be too quick to 'dish' Watson, as he's the first player to reach 10,000 yards passing (10,244) and 1,000 yards rushing (1,277) through his first 40 games in NFL history (not bad, huh?). Watson isn't exactly ready to panic with his team potentially facing its second 0-3 start in three years. "That's all we can do is just put our head down and grind," Watson said. "Just work and try to do what we do and see what the outcome comes like. Of course, we don't want to be 0-3, but that's not the main thing that's on our minds right now." I expect an outright Houston win but that doesn't mean I'm NOT taking the points.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

The LA Rams have opened 2-0 after an impressive 37-19 road win in Week 2 at Philadelphia. The Rams are back on the East Coast again on Sunday, when they take on the Buffalo Bills, who are also off to a 2-0 start. The duo is part of a group of 11 NFL teams that have opened 2-0 but barring a tie, one team will walk away 3-0 and the other 2-1 after Sunday's contest. On the coaching sidelines, it will be a battle of wits between two Seans.

Sean McVay got his first NFL head coaching gig with the Rams when he was hired in January of 2017. The hiring made him the youngest head coach in the NFL's modern era,  at the age of 30 years, 354 days. He immediately led the Rams to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth in 2017 and then went 13-3 in 2018, taking the Rams all the way to the Super Bowl. Last year's 9-7 finish kept LA out of the playoffs but a 3-0 start would sure be 'sweet,' considering the Rams play in the brutally tough NFC West (Arz and Sea are also 2-0 and the defending NFC champion 49ers are 1-1). The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 21-8 SU in road and neutral site games, including playoff games.

Buffalo's Sean is Mr McDermott, who was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, is this the year someone other than the Patriots win the AFC East? Buffalo's 2-0 start surely has fans taking notice.

The outlook for 2020 was a little murky for the Rams, as the roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley to  WR Brandin Cooks on offense, along with top pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton on the defensive side of the ball. However, as noted, the Rams are 2-0. QB Jared Goff was the overall No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft and he's surely NOT disappointed. He was solid (nothing special) vs the Cowboys in Week 1 (completing 20 of 31 for 275 yards with one TD and one INT), but threw for 270 yards with three TDs and zero INTs vs Philly (142.0 QB rating). RB Todd Gurley was the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade but was released and signed with the Falcons. The Rams have replaced Gurley with three RBs. Veteran Malcolm Brown got most of the workload against Dallas, running for 79 yards and two TDs but second-year pro Darrell Henderson led vs Philly with 81 yards (6.8 YPC) with one TD. Despite the team's defensive losses, the Rams held the Cowboys to just three points in the second half on SIX possessions and then Philly to just 19 points, while forcing three TOs.

Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen was part of the 2017 NFL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round (he was selected 7th, overall). He has not been a prolific passer in his first two seasons but he's a real leader and has produced. Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen has made excellent strides and became just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. The 2020 season looks like a "breakout" one for the former Wyoming Cowboy. He threw for 312 yards with two TDs and no INTs in a 27-17 Week 1 win over the Jets and followed with a career-high 417 passing yards vs the Dolphins in Week 2, with a career-best four TDs and again, zero INTs (QB rating of 147.0). The addition of WR Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with Minnesota, is a big deal. Diggs has averaged 73 catches per year in his five seasons with the Vikings, while grabbing 30 TD passes. He had eight catches for 153 yards a TD last week (had eight catches for just 86 yards in Week 1) and joins WRs Brown (72 catches / 6 TDs in 2019) and Beasley (67 catches / 6 TDs in 2019).

Buffalo had the Jets down 27-10 before a TD with under a minute to go made it a 27-17 final. Last week, it was 31-20 Buffalo, before the Dolphins got the backdoor cover with another TD with under a minute to go. The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 21-8 SU in road and neutral site games (including playoff games) but this is a tough spot for LA, back on the East Coast for a second straight week. I really like this Buffalo team and after B2B games against AFC foes, the Bills draw their first NFC opponent of the season. That's NOT bad news, as the Bills are on a current 11-5-1 ATS run vs NFC opponents.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic Play is on the LV Raiders at 8:15 ET.

Last Sunday night on NBC, the LA Rams opened their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium, by edging the Cowboys 20-17. The only thing missing was the fans. Monday night on ESPN, the Las Vegas Raiders get their chance to show off their shiny new $2 billion stadium near the Las Vegas Strip with a high-profile matchup against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints but like last Sunday night in LA, the stadium will be empty. Monday's night's Week 2 contest was supposed to be a big celebration of the NFL's arrival in Las Vegas but the atmosphere has been dampened a bit by the decision not to allow fans at Raiders games this season in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. That said, the venue is beautiful and both teams are coming off Week 1 wins.

The Raiders have been waiting for this moment for years, as they've spent the past 25 seasons playing in the rundown Oakland Coliseum. The team was unable to get an agreement on a new stadium in the Bay Area and was blocked from moving to Los Angeles, so it ended up in the desert instead. This game also marks the first time Saints coach Sean Payton and Raiders coach Jon Gruden, who are old friends and colleagues, have been on opposite sidelines since Gruden left Tampa Bay after the 2008 season. Gruden was the Eagles offensive coordinator under coach Ray Rhodes when Payton was hired to his first NFL job as Philadelphia's quarterbacks coach in 1997.

I had the Saints in their Week 1 win over Brady and the Bucs, noting that this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions.

Brees had two TDs passes last Sunday (no picks) but threw for just 160 yards. He got very little help from his running game as Alvin Kamara, who FINALLY agreed to a long-term deal with the club right before the start of the season, ran for just 16 yards on 12 carries (he did catch five balls for 51 yards. Murray added 49 yards rushing but the Saints had just 82 yards rushing for the game. The Saints' rush D has been excellent the last few seasons, as New Orleans has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 44 consecutive games entering this contest (held the Bucs to just 86 yards on 3.3 YPC last week). The Saints' D also gave Brady fits with two INTs, including a 'pick-6.'

The Raiders won 34-30 last Sunday at Carolina, as Derek Carr completed 22 of 30 (73.3%) for 239 yards with one TD and no INTs (107.8 QB rating. RB Josh Jacobs ran for 93  yards but averaged just 3.7 YPC. However, he did score three TDs and also caught four passes for 46 yards. Expect continued success by this Alabama product who ran for 1,150 yards (4.8 YPC) and seven TDs as a rookie last season (played just 13 games)! The Raiders blew a 12-point fourth quarter lead last Sunday but Carr engineered a nine-play, 75-yard TD drive (Jacobs capped it with a six-yard TD run) for the win.

As noted earlier, I had the Saints last Sunday but I was NOT impressed with Brees and WR Thomas, who has caught 100-plus passes the last three seasons, including 149 in 2019 for 1,725 yards, has been ruled out for this game. I am well aware that the Saints are on a 12-3 ATS run as road favorite but I'm counting on some MNF home team 'magic,' even without fan support. "It still is as a football fan a cool feeling to be able to play on Monday night," QB Derek Carr said. "We wish our city here, Las Vegas, we wish they could experience it with us. I'm sure they will be around somewhere. I'm sure there is a certain street or strip that they'll be on that our fans will be at. But I wish they could be there, but hopefully it still feels the same energy and all those kinds of things." Take the MNF home dog.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET,.

I featured a Brady (TB) vs Brees NO) marquee QB matchup in Week 1 (won with the Saints, BTW) and here in Week 2, it's a marquee head coaching matchup featuring Bill (NE) vs Pete (Sea) and it's showcased on NBC's Sunday Night Football. Carrol's first head coaching job was with the Jets (1994) and he went 6-10, before getting fired. However, he was hired by New England in 1997 and took the Pats to the playoffs that season and in 1998, before going 8-8 in 1999, when Bob Kraft fired him (guess who took over for him?). Carroll re-emerged at USC in 2000 and starting 2001, the Trojans never won less than 11 games in any season. A few noteworthy accomplishments were SEVEN consecutive AP Top-4 finishes, a 34-game winning streak, a national-record 33 consecutive weeks as the AP's No. 1-ranked team and two national titles. After a 9-4 finish in 2009 and amidst some controversy, he jumped to the NFL with the Seattle Seahawks. His first two seasons (2010 and 2011) saw Settle go 7-9 but the Seahawks actually won the NFC West in 2010. Beginning in 2012, the Seahawks have won 10-plus games in SEVEN of the last eight seasons, going to back-back Super Bowls at the end of the 2013 season (won) and the 2014 season (lost).

Now to Belichick. He was Cleveland's head coach from 1991 through 1995 but NO ONE wins there anymore. Belichick was 36-44 overall, making ONE playoff appearance in . He then took over in New England after Carroll was fired and after a 5-11 season in 2001, has earned the right to claim being the NFL's best-ever head coach. Some guy named Brady stepped in and replaced an injured Bledsoe at QB in the 2001 season and led the Pats to their first Super Bowl title. They went just 9-7 in 2002 (missed the playoffs but from 2003 through 2019, have never won less than 10 games in a season, while adding FIVE more Super Bowl titles. That Brady guy may have had something to do with Belichick's success, but that's an argument for another day.

Former league MVP Cam Newton is Belichick's starting QB in 2020 and he looked pretty darn good in Week 1, completing 15 of 19 for 155 yards (no TDs but ZERO interceptions!). He led the Pats in rushing yards with 75 and scored two TDs in the team's 21-1 win over Miami. New England's rushing game (minus Newton) is average at best (I think I'm being too kind) plus Newton's receiving corps isn't' much better. Edelman had five catches for 57 yards and Henry also had five catches but averaged just 7.5 YPC. However, New England's defense (despite significant players opting out), was as good as ever. The Pats led the NFL in points allowed in 2019 (14.1 PPG) and total yards (275.9 YPG) and bettered BOTH of those numbers vs the Dolphins, holding them to 11 points and 269 yards.

Speaking of defense, Seattle's "Legion of Boom" is a thing of the past, as Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards (THREE receivers topped 100 yards) in Week 1. However, Seattle's Russell Wilson was brilliant, completing 31 of 35 (88.6%) for 322 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 143.1). When asked about Wilson this past week, Belichick said, "Honestly, I think he's in a way underrated by the media or the fans, I don't know. But I don't really see anybody better than this player, This guy is a tremendous player." Seattle's running game is a 'mess,' with Hyde and Carson combining for 44 yards on 3.4 YPC in Week 1. However, when the final score was in, Seattle won 38-25.

Sunday's matchup between the 69-year-old Carroll and 68-year-old Belichick will bring together the two oldest coaches currently in the NFL. Even more noteworthy is that it's a rematch of one of the more memorable Super Bowls in recent years (XLIX), where NE snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in the final seconds with an interception at the goal line (Why not run 'Beast Mode?'). CenturyLink Field is one of the loudest venues in the NFL but will be silent for Seattle's home opener, as no fans will be allowed in for at least the first three home games. That said, Seattle is on a MONEY-MAKING run of 13-4 ATS in home openers. As for the Pats, without Brady, any past New England trends are "non-applicable." Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 2 Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Cowboys at 1:00 ET.

The Cowboys arrived in LA for Week 1's SNF encounter with the Rams with a new head coach for the first in a decade. Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green Bay in the 2010 season) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherited what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owns just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. The Rams finished with a 422-380 edge in yards, as the Cowboys were held to to just THREE points in SIX, second-half possessions in a 20-17 loss. The Atlanta Falcons opened their 2020 season at home vs the Seahawks, coming off back-to-back 7-9 seasons. Atlanta outgained Seattle 506-383 in total yards but would end up on the short end of a 38-25 final.

"Matty Ice" (what a nickname for a QB who has never won ANYTHING) threw for 450 yards (2 TDs / 1 INT), as three receivers topped 100 yards (Jones had 157, Ridley 130 and both TDs and Gage had 114). Newly acquired RB Todd Gurley ran for only 56 yards on 14 carries. The defense was helpless against Russell Wilson, who went 31 of 35 (88.6%) for 322 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 143.1).

Dak Prescott didn't have a poor game (25 of 39 for 266 yards with one TD and no INTs) plus Elliott ran for 96 yards (4.4 YPC). Amari Cooper had 10 catches and highly-touted rookie CeeDee Lamb had five catches for 59 yards. However, Dallas has to find a way to get into the end zone more frequently, with its offensive talent. The Cowboys are back in "Jerry's House" in Week 2 but they're on a 2-8-1 ATS run as non-division home favorites. Then again, the Falcons just 5-16 ATS over their last 21 non-division contests. Throw in the fact that Atlanta is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road openers and it's Dallas which avoids an 0-2 start in 2020 with a "comfortable" win. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC Game of the Month is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The LA Rams eked out a 20-17 Week 1 win over the Cowboys last Sunday night, when they opened their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium. On the other side of the country, the Philadelphia Eagles jumped out to a 17-0 in the nation's capital against the Washington Football Team, before Washington scored the game's final 27 points in a 10-point Philly loss. As the Rams visit Philly to take on the Eagles in this Week 2 contest, all eyes will be on the QB matchup between Jared Goff and Carson Wentz.

Some quick history. Two QBs have been selected Nos. 1-2 in the NFL draft only SEVEN times since 1967. However, it NEVER worked out for both teams until Goff (Rams) and Wentz (Eagles) went 1-2 in the 2016 draft. Wentz finished third in MVP voting his sophomore season (2017) when the Eagles won their first Super Bowl title, although they would win without him after he tore two knee ligaments late in the season (threw for 3,296 yards with a 33-7 ratio in 13 games), Goff followed by leading the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance the following season (201*0, where they lost 13-3 to New England (Goff threw for 4,688 yards with a 32-12 ratio).

The outlook for 2020 was a little murky for the Rams, as the roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley (the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade) to WR Brandin Cooks on offense, along with top pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton on the defensive side of the ball. Goff was solid (nothing special) vs the Cowboys, completing 20 of 31 for 275 yards with one TD and one INT. The Rams have replaced Gurley with three RBs. Veteran Malcolm Brown got most of the workload against Dallas, running for 79 yards and two TDs but McVay went into the game expecting to give more playing time to rookie Cam Akers, who started and ran for 39 yards. McVay is likely to give more work to Akers and second-year pro Darrell Henderson against the Eagles, The defense did a VERY good job vs Dallas, holding the Cowboys to just three points in the second half, on SIX possessions.

Wentz (270 yards with two TDs and two INTs) had two TD passes as the Eagles took a 17-0 lead at Washington in the second quarter but a non-existent running game (17 for 57 yards / 3.4 YPC), an injury-depleted offensive line that allowed eight sacks and three TOs, "did in" Philadelphia. The bright spot was the Philly D, which allowed just 80 rushing yards (2.2 YPC) and 159 passing yards.

The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 20-8 SU in road and neutral site games, including playoff games. However, the Eagles have won SIS straight against the Rams (6-0 ATS, as well), including their most recent meeting in 2018, when the Eagles won 30-23 at LA in Week 15 as a 13 1/2-point underdog. Philly RB Miles Sanders is expected to return for the Eagles after missing the opener with a hamstring injury. His addition is no small deal, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). Eagles bounce back with a win and avoid an 0-2 start.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Battle 4 Ohio play is on the Cin Bengals at 8:20 ET.

The Browns opened the 2020 season with a new head coach, as Freddie Kitchens lasted just ONE season. Kevin Stefanski signed a five-year contract to become the 18th head coach of the Cleveland Browns on January 13, 2020 (was Minnesota's OC in 2019 and this marks his first head coaching job). QB Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did  win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!).

Marvin Lewis took over at Cincinnati and had just ONE playoff appearance in his first six seasons. However, he then led the Bengals to SIX postseason appearances over a  seven-year stretch (2009-15) but the Bengals always lost their first playoff game. Three straight losing years followed (2016-18) and he was finally fired. Zac Taylor got the job (his first head coaching gig) in 2019 and the Bengals were just 2-14. However, Cincy was pinning its 2020 hopes on Heisman-winner Jeff Burrow out of LSU, fresh off one of CFB's most prolific seasons.

Joe Burrow's NFL debut (he was the only rookie QB to start the first week of the season) was a mixed bag. He ran 23 yards for a TD but was a modest 22 of 36 for 193 yards without a TD pass. He put the Bengals in range for a dramatic, late-game win but threw an interception on a shovel pass to thwart one late scoring chance and then watched as Randy Bullock missed a 31-yard field goal with two seconds left, clinching the Chargers' 16-13 win. The good news was that the Cincy "D," which allowed 26.3 PPG in 2019, held the Chargers to just 16 points.

The Browns have won just ONE game on Opening Day since returning to the NFL in 1999 and last Sunday was no different. The Cleveland D had no answer for Lamar Jackson, who completed 20 of 25 for 275 yards with three TDs and zero INTs (152.1 QB rating). Jackson also added 45 yards rushing. As for Mayfield, he was a non-factor, going 21 of 39 for 189 yards with one TD and one INT. The offense converted just 3 of 12 third downs and was 0 for 3 on 4th downs

These are two sad-sack franchises but while I think the Browns 'whiffed' with Mayfield, I believe the Bengals "have a keeper" in Burrow. I'm taking the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic Play is on the Den Broncos at 10:20 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the 2019 season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. Tannehill and Derrick Henry, the NFL's leading rusher with 1,540, then took control of the Titans' offense. The Titans would go 7-3 the rest of the way, averaging 30.4 PPG. They qualified as a wild card and then beat the Pats 23-10 on the road, followed  by a shocking upset over the AFC's No. 1 seed, a 28-12 win in Baltimore. Henry ran for 182 and 195 yards (5.9 YPC) in those two wins, while Tannehill basically 'watched' (15 of 29 for just 160 yards in the two wins). Tennessee's 'Cinderella' run ended in the AFC championship game, when the Chiefs won, 35-24 (Tenn led 17-7 but KC then scored the game's next 28 points!).

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door' after the 2018 season. Vic Fangio was hired in January of 2019 and it was his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories. However, the Broncos would go just 7-9, giving them THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972. Heading into 2020, these are facts. Drew Lock is the 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning helped (did he really?) the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win and NO head coach has reached a THIRD season at Denver since John Fox in 2013.

Tennessee visits Denver for the second-half of the NFL's Monday Night doubleheader, as the Broncos host the Titans in an empty Empower Field at Mile High. I'm not even REMOTELY sold on Tannehill at QB and while Henry's a DOMINATING force in the backfield, he has struggled in two games against Denver in his career. He ran 12 times for 42 yards backing up DeMarco Murray as a rookie in a Titans' win on Dec 11, 2016 (no big deal there) but he was held to 28 yards on 15 rushes in a 16-0 loss in Denver last October. That EASILY was Henry's worst game last season. Tennessee added two "big names" on defense, Jadeveon Clowney and Vic Beasley Jr. However, Clowney didn't sign his contract until Sep 7 and Beasley didn't pass his physical until Sep 5, after spending training camp on the non-football injury list. Beasley is out and playing in the altitude of Denver could limit the number of reps Clowney gets.

Fangio's defense was not great last year but Denver still held opponents to 19.8 PPG, one of 10 teams under 20.0 PPG . Star linebacker Von Miller suffered a serious ankle injury and is out but five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Jurrell Casey was traded by Tennessee to Denver in the off season  in a salary dump (cleared $11 million in cap space). "It's going to be a little bit more juice," Casey said as his Denver debut approached.

Signing Joe Flacco was a big mistake  and I wouldn't underestimate Drew Lock. The Broncos went 4-1 with him as a starter, losing only to KC (Super Bowl champs). Denver averaged 26.0 PPG in his four wins. Philip Lindsay ran for 1,011 yards (4.5 YPC) last season but will be pushed by the acquisition of Melvin Gordon. He's always been overrated as a runner but he's an outstanding pass-catcher and fits well in OC Pat Schurmer's offense.

The Broncos are appearing on "Monday Night Football" for an NFL-best 29th consecutive season and I want the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

The Los Angeles Rams open their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium, on Sunday night and their opponents will be Jerry Jones' Dallas Cowboys (Jones knows a little about building a spectacular venue. Obviously, the absence of fans because of the coronavirus pandemic puts a massive asterisk on what should have been a triumphant occasion for the league and two of its most important owners, Jones and LA's Stan Kroenke.

The Cowboys come to LA with a new head coach for the first in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green bay in the season) takes over for Jason Garrett. He inherits what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owns just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. Sean McVay was 30-years-old when he was hired by the Rams in 2017 at the age of 30, becoming the youngest head coach in modern NFL history. The Rams went 11-5 and earned a wild card berth in his first year and then in 2018. McVay led the Rams to Super Bowl LIII, becoming the youngest coach ever to do so and earning him the NFL Coach of the Year award. The Rams finished 9-7 in 2019, missing the playoffs.

The Cowboys were a disappointing 8-8 last season and FINALLY, Jones gave Garrett the boot. QBB Dak Prescott (4,902 passing yards / 30-11 TD/INT ratio), RB Zeke Elliot (1,357 yards rushing with 12 TDs and 54 catches) and WR Omari Cooper (79 catches / 15.1 YPC / 8 TDs) are Dallas' current version of "The Triplets" (note: Don't tell that to Troy, Emmitt and Michael). Gallup caught 66 passes last season (16.8 YPC and 6 TDs) and joining Cooper and Gallup on the outside is Oklahoma star WR CeeDee Lamb. There is little doubt that the Cowboys have an offense that can match ANY in the league but that was the case last season too, and the team finished 8-8. was one of the NFL's best last season. The Cowboys are a popular pick to be an immediate Super Bowl contender under McCarthy. Well see.

The outlook is far murkier for the Rams, Their roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley (the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade) to WR Brandin Cooks. Top to pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton are also gone. QB Jared Goff was drafted 134 picks before Prescott in 2016, but Prescott has passed for more yards (15,778 to 14,219) and TDs (97 to 87) with a higher completion rate (65.8% to 62.4%) and fewer interceptions (36 to 42). However, after McVay's arrival, Goff's played in FOUR playoff games (including A Super Bowl), while Prescott's Cowboys have missed the playoffs TWICE in his four years, winning just ONE postseason game.

These teams met in Week 15 last season in Dallas, as the Rams suffered a thorough beatdown, with the Cowboys winning 44-21 and finishing with a 475-289 yard advantage. However, it's notable that Dallas was one-point dog in that contest while here in LA for Week 1, Dallas opened as a three-point road favorite. The Cowboys were just 3-5 on the road last season, winning games at Washington, at the NY Giants and at Detroit. Those teams combined for a 10-37-1 (.219) record in 2019. Dallas lost at playoffs teams New I=Orleans, New England and Philly, with the team's 'revered' offense averaging a pathetic 9.3 PPG. BTW...The Cowboys also lost at the Jets and Bears, who were both 7-9. The home dog 'BARKS' in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL Week 1 Marquee Play is on the NO Saints at 4:25 ET.

This Week 1 contest between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints features the first game ever to involve two QBs in their 40s, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. However, that's hardly the ONLY storyline, as these particular 40-year-old QBs are QUITE special. Brees is the NFL's all-time leader in yards passing with 77,416 and passing TDs with 547. Brady is second in both categories with 74,571 and 541. Brady's won a record SIX Super Bowl titles but for the first time in his career, he will line up under center for a team other than the Patriots. Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions.

Brady's been 'off' the last two seasons (QB ratings of 97.7 and 88.0) but reports out of camp are that Brady's arm is stronger than last year. He's brought to Tampa his own personal TE, "The Gronk" (no explanation needed). WR Mike Evans has averaged 77 catches per season over his first six years, topping 1,000 yards each time plus has 48 TD receptions. RB Jones had a solid second season in 2019, rushing for 724 yards on 4.2 YPG. Tampa has added six-time Pro Bowl selection LeSean McCoy and two-time 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette to the backfield mix. There's NO debate that Brady is an upgrade over Winston (5,109 yards with 33 TDs but also 30 INTs) and I expect the Bucs to have an excellent offense in 2020. However, defense IS an issue, as the Bucs allowed 28.1 PPG. More troubling is Tampa Bay's pass D, which allowed 270.1 YPG (30th), along with 30 TD passes but just 12 INTs.

The Saints stumbled out of the Blocks last season (it's become a ritual, lately) but then finished on a 12-2 SU run, going 11-3 ATS. Brees was great (see above) and the Saints added WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency to a receiver group led by All-Pro Michael Thomas, who caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. Brees' other favorite targets include veteran TE Jared Cook (43 catches and 9 TDs to tie Thomas for the team lead) and RB Alvin Kamara (81 catches). Kamara led the team in rushing with 797 yards on 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs. He's backed up by Murray, who added 637 yards on 4.4 YPC (note: Murray ran for 1,066 for Oakland in 2015 and scored 12 rushing TDs for the Raiders in 2016).

Most 'talk' revolves around Brady and can he lead the Bucs to their first postseason since 2006. However, this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). I'm laying the points with Brees over Brady in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.

The Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens will be forever be linked in NFL history. Cleveland owner Art Modell announced he was relocating the Browns to Baltimore and after negotiations and legal battles, an agreement was reached where Modell would be allowed to take his personnel to Baltimore as an expansion franchise (Ravens) but would leave Cleveland the Browns' colors, logos and heritage for a reactivated Browns franchise that would take the field no later than 1999. The Browns were reactivated in 1999 but the Browns have produced just TWO winning seasons in these last 21 years, with ONE postseason appearance (2002). Meanwhile, the Ravens were able to post their first winning season in 2000 (team's fifth year), capping the season by winning Super Bowl XXXV. John Harbaugh was given his first-ever NFL head coaching job in 2008 and led the Ravens to the postseason in each of his first five seasons. The number five was again 'magic,' as Baltimore won its second Super Bowl in the 2012 season (SB XLVII).

The Browns open the 2020 season with a new head coach, as Freddie Kitchens lasted just ONE season. Kevin Stefanski signed a five-year contract to become the 18th head coach of the Cleveland Browns on January 13, 2020 (was Minnesota's OC in 2019 and this marks his first head coaching job). As for the Ravens, Harbaugh is still around, entering his 13th season as Baltimore's head coach.

QB Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looking promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did  win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!).

Baltimore was just 2-2 through the first four games of the 2019 season but the Ravens would win their final 12 games, covering NINE of their last 10. QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP, posting a 113.3 QB rating (36-6 ratio) while rushing for 1,206 yards (6.9 YPA / 7 TDs), which set a single-record for QBs. Baltimore set a single season record for team rushing yards and became the first team since at least 1950 to average 200-plus pass YPG (201.6) and 200-plus rush YPG (206) in the same season. The D was not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG).

The Ravens were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs last season, losing 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites. Jackson passed for 365 yards (59 attempts!) and ran for 143 yards but his three TOs (two INTs) was the 'story' of the game (along with Tennessee RB Henry shredding the Baltimore D for 195 rushing yards). I expect the Ravens to be highly motivated in Week 1 and the Ravens should also well-remember that the Browns won here in Baltimore 40-25 (as 7.5-point dogs) in Week 4 of the 2019 season. That was Baltimore's LAST loss of the regular season, as the Ravens won their final 12 games, including a Week 16 rematch in Cleveland by the score of 31-15 (as 9.5-point favorites). DO NOT ignore the fact that the Browns last won a Week 1 game back in 2004, losing 13 in a row before playing a 21-21 tie in 2018, but then resuming their losing ways with a 43-13 home loss in Week 1 of 2019 against the Titans. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC Central) is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikes to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. He knows a non-postseason year in 2020 will NOT be acceptable. Green Bay head coach Matt LeFleur had quite a 'rookie year' with the Packers in 2019 (first-ever head coaching job), as he led the Packers to a 13-3 record and a spot in the NFC championship game (forgettable 37-20 loss at San Francisco in a contest that was NOT as close as the final score). The Packers beat the Vikings in BOTH 2019 meetings, 21-16 in Week 2 at Green Bay and 23-10 at Minnesota in Week 16. The two NFC Central rivals open their respective 2020 seasons on Sunday in Minnesota.

Aaron Rodgers has long ago 'punched his ticket' to Canton but while he threw for 4,002 yards last season (26-4 TD/INT ratio), the Packers averaged a middle-of-the-pack 23.5 PPG on 345.5 YPG. RB Aaron Jones was great (1,084 rushing yards with 16 TDs plus 49 catches with 3 TDs), as was WR Davante Adams (83 catches / 5 TDs), but those two were his only "playmakers." The defense allowed 352.6 PPG (18th) but held opponents to 19.6 PPG (9th).

Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. RB Dalvin Cook had a breakout season in 2019 (1,135 yards with 13 TDs plus 63 catches), despite missing the last two regular season contests. Minnesota loses outstanding WR Stefon Diggs (traded to Buffalo) but Adam Thielen is back healthy and don't forget, he had 91 catches in 2017 and 113 in 2018. Also, expect a big season from TE Kyle Rudolph (39 catches / 6 TDs). Zimmer's 'baby' has been the Minnesota defense but wholesale changes have been made with both DL and DB positions.

Cousins was terrific in 2019 BUT was just terrible in his two meetings with Green Bay, as he had his two-lowest passer ratings of the year at 52.9 and 58.8.Let n]me add that Dalvin Cook was not able to play in that Week 16 loss. However, here's the rub. How badly do you think Minnesota wants this game? Consider this. For the first time in the franchise's 60 seasons, the Vikings have their opener scheduled at home against the rival Packers, an immediate opportunity to avenge their decisive defeat at U.S. Bank Stadium on Dec. 23, 2019, that clinched the NFC North for Green Bay (Vikings were held to 7 FDs and 139 yards!). Rodgers is Rodgers but he's just 6-6 in his career at Minnesota plus the Vikings are on a 22-8-1 ATS run as a home favorite. Lay the 'small' number!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month (Super Bowl LIV) is on the KC Chiefs at 6:30 ET.

The Baltimore Ravens ended the regular season on a 12-game winning streak to enter as the AFC's No. 1 seed at 14-2. San Francisco survived in Week 17 at Seattle, holding on (by inches) for a 26-21 win at Seattle to finish 13-3 and earn the NFC's No. 1 seed. If the two No. 1 seeds had advanced to the Super Bowl, we were looking at a replay of Super XLVII (nicknamed the Harbaugh Bowl), when Baltimore beat San Francisco 34-31 to win the 2012 title. However, the Ravens were upset by the Titans, so on Championship Sunday, a rematch of Super Bowl I loomed, if KC could win (as expected) over Tennessee and the Packers could upset the 49ers. KC held up its end but Green Bay (much to my chagrin) were NO match for San Francisco. The leaves us with the 49ers looking to match the Pats and Steelers with the franchise's SIXTH Super Bowl title, after becoming only the SECOND team in NFL history to make the Super Bowl a year after losing at least 12 games. The 1999 St Louis Rams also went 4-12 the season before reaching AND winning Super Bowl XXXIV. Not to be outdone in "the history" department, the Chiefs return to the Super Bowl 50 years after last appearing in one. The Chiefs played in and won Super Bowl IV 16-7 over the Vikings, the final Super Bowl prior to the AFL-NFL merger. That 50-year span sets a record for longest stretch between Super Bowl appearances for any club (note: As mentioned earlier, the Chiefs also played in Super I, losing to Lombardi's Packers, 35-10).

San Francisco's defense was dominant during the team's 7-0 start (11.0 PPG) but "worse than average" during team's last nine games, allowing 25.9 PPG. However, the Niners D has been "back in form" in the postseason, holding the Vikings to 147 yards and just seven FDs (Minnesota was 2 of 12 on 3rd downs and 0 of 2 on 4th downs). The Packesr did gain 358 yards in teh NFC championship game but trailed 27-0 at the half and two 4th-quarter TD drives accounted for 167 of the team's total of 358 yards. San Francisco averaged 29.2 PPG on the season (2nd) and its running game, second-best to only Baltimore's in the regular season at 144.1 YPG, has led the way in the playoffs.The 49ers controlled the game vs the Vikings with 186 yards on the ground (just 4.0 YPA, with its longest run being 11 yards) and then 'exploded' vs the Packers by rushing for 285 yards (6.8 YPA). Mostert set a team playoff record with 220 yards and four TDs. Jimmy G directed a scoring drive on his first playoff possession but finished just 11 of 19 for 131 yards with one TD and one INT vs Minnesota. He was no more than a 'spectator' in the win over Green Bay, going 6 of eight for 77 yards (no TDs or INTs).

KC has thrilled its fans in reaching this season's "ultimate" game. The Chiefs fell behind Houston 24-0 but then scored a TD on SEVEN consecutive possessions in a 51-31 win. They then fell behind Tennessee 10-0 and 17-7, before again taking control. KC scored 28 straight points to open a 35-17 lead and win, 35-24. Leading the way is the NFL's most exciting (best?) QB, Patrick Mahomes. His performances have been dazzling, as he's completed EXACTLY 23 of 35 passes in both wins, throwing for 615 yards with eight TDs and not a single INT. He's also been KC's leading rusher (106 yards / 7.1 YPA), including a SPECTACULAR 27-yeard TD scamper right before the half vs the Titans. RB Damien Williams has been acquitted himself quite well, rushing for 92 yards (three TDs) while adding seven catches and one TD. TE Kelce was a 'beast' vs Houston (10 catches for 134 yards and three TDs) but then took a 'backseat' to WRs Watkins and Hill vs Tennessee. Watkins caught seven passes for 114 yards and one TD, with Hill adding five catches and two TDs. KC's D struggled during the first part of the season but held opponents to just 11.5 PPG during the team's six-game winning streak to end the regular season. KC's defense was hit hard by Houston early but shut down the Texans in the second half, allowing just SEVEN points. It was deja vu all over again against Tennessee, as the Titans were also held to just seven second-half points. More notable, Titans RB Henry came into the AFC championship game averaging 196.0 YPG rushing (7.1 YPA) in his previous three games but KC completely shut him down, holding him to 69 yards on 19 carries (3.6 YPA).

Kansas City has won EIGHT straight games, all by SEVEN points or more, with its average winning margin being 16.1 PPG. Mahomes over Jimmy Garoppolo (a glorified game-manager) is a "no-brainer." Yes, San Francisco's running game is superb but the Chiefs are allowing just 3.8 yards per carry during their last six games plus Kansas City has limited long completions and the Niners' WRs leave a  lot to be desired (TE Kittle is the biggest threat). What's more, KC's pass rush has been greatly upgraded with the return from injury of premier DT Chris Jones and the late-season signing of veteran DE Terrell Suggs.

Mostert had a game for the ages against the Packers in the NFC championship game and NO WAY he comes ANYWHERE close to that kind of performance, here. I'm not going to 'beat up' on Jimmy G but c'mon, him vs Mahomes? The only QBs the 49ers faced who can be compared to Mahomes this season were Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. The Saints scored 46 points against the 49ers, the Falcons scored 29 points at San Francisco and won, while the Seahawks averaged 24 points and were inches away from a TD that would have given them a season sweep. Garoppolo doesn’t have the arm, touch, mobility and craftiness Mahomes possesses. Garoppolo also doesn’t have the speed and depth the Chiefs have at the WR position. This could get 'ugly' for San Francisco.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Playoff Game of the Year is on the GB Packers at 6:40 ET.

If the San Francisco 49ers can beat the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, they will become only the SECOND team in NFL history to make the Super Bowl a year after losing at least 12 games.The Niners lost QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the year in Week 3 of the 2018 season and 'limped' to a 4-12 record. However, the team is now ONE win away from joining the 1999 St Louis Rams who also went 4-12 the season before reaching AND winning Super Bowl XXXIV. That said, the Packers have a pretty good story themselves, as Packers opemend teh 2019 season off back-to-back losing seasons (7-9 in 2017 and 6-9-1 in 2018), for the first time since 1990 and 1991. At the start of the current season, Green Bay playing in the NFC championship game was only slightly more far-fetched than San Francisco doing so

These teams played earlier this season in Week 12 in San Francisco. Aaron Rodgers lost a fumble on Green Bay's first possession, setting up a two-yard TD drive that gave San Francisco the lead. The Niners then broke it open with long TD passes to Deebo Samuel late in the second quarter and to George Kittle in the third quarter of a 37-8 win. Rodgers threw for just 104 yards (career-worst 3.2 YPA) and got sacked five times. The loss left Green Bay at 8-3 but the Packers would end the regular season by winning their last FIVE games, allowing just 14.2 PPG to claim the NFC's No. 2 seed. The Niners were 10-1 after that win and went 3-2 the rest of the way, holding the Seahawks inches away from a TD in the fianl seconds of Week 17, claiming the NFC's top-seed. San Francisco's defense was dominant during the team's 7-0 start (11.0 PPG) but "worse than average" during team's last nine games, allowing 25.9 PPG.

However, San Francisco's defense humbled the vikings last weekend (Saturday), holding Minnesota to 147 total yards in a 27-10 win. Jimmy G directed a scoring drive on his first playoff possession and finished 11 of 19 for 131 yards with one TD and one INT. San Francisco's running game ranked second to only Baltimore's in the regular season and controlled the game with 186 yards on the ground (just 4.0 YPA, with its longest run being 11 yards). Getting back to the San Francisco D, Minnesota was held to just seven FDs and was 2 of 13 on third downs plus 0-2 on fourth down tries. Green Bay played last Sunday and dominated Seattle in the first half, taking a 21-3 lead. The Packers led 28-10 in the late 3rd quarter but Russell Wilson NEVER gives up. Seattle cut it to 28-17 and then to 28-23, before missing a two-point try. Seattle only got the ball back ONCE after that (four plays) plus Rodgers converted two HUG third downs late, sealing the win.

These two franchises have combined for NINE Super Bowl titles and have a rich history when it comes to the playoffs. This will be their EIGHT meeting in the past 25 postseasons, three more than any other rivalry. In fact, the only other matchup to occur more often is Cowboys-Rams, which happened nine times. So here we are. I doubt anyone thinks the 49ers will rout the Packers again. Then again, maybe some do. Count me as one who DOES NOT!

Taking Jimmy G over Kirk Cousins is one thing but over Aaron Rodgers in an NFC title, while laying a TD? As of Friday afternoon, there were 7.5s galore. Rodgers had an off year, but threw for 4,002 yards (Jimmy G had 3,978) with 26 TDs and just four INTs (Jimmy G's ratio was 27-13). In the Division Round, Rodgers was 16-of-27 for 243 yards with two TDs and zero INTs (113.7 QB rating), while Jimmy G was 11-of-19 for 131 yards with one TD and one INT (74.7 rating). San Francisco's running game has better depth but Green Bay's Aaron Jones (1,084 rush yards, 474 receiving yards and 19 total TDs) will be the best RB of the field. Kittle's a terrific TE and gets the edge over the aging Jimmy Graham but the best WR on the field (by far!) is Davante Adams, who had eight catches for 180 yards (2 TDs) vs Seattle. San Francisco's D gets the edge but I don't think by much. Remember the Niners' second-half troubles and Green Bay's D finishing by allowing 14.2 PPG its final five games. Is shutting down Kirk Cousins proof it can be done to Rodgers/. Especially, when Rodgers not only has great motivation to "make up for" for his Week 12 'nightmare' plus he also has to realize his Super Bowl 'window' is closing.

One final reference to Green Bay's Week 12 loss at San Francisco. Discount that contest and know that the Packers were 8-0 SU  & ATS against EVERY other above-.500 team they faced in 2019. I'm grabbing the points and hoping we see a Super Bowl I rematch, Green Bay-Kansas City (note: I have NO play on Ten/KC on Sunday).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the GB Packers at 6:40 ET.

The 13-3 Green Bay Packers rebounded from 6-9-1 season in 2018 to earn the NFC's No. 2 seed. That gave teh Pack a first round bye and now a home game against the 5th-seeded Seattle Seahawks, who got past the injury-depleted Eagles last Sunday in Philadelphia, 17-9. Seattle win last Sunday gave them an NFL-best 8-1 record on the road, as do-everything QB Russell Wilson threw for 325 yards and a TD plus added a team-high 45 on the ground. Aaron Rodgers is nearly 10 years removed from his lone Super Bowl title but the 36-year-old feels Green Bay is poised to make another run at the championship.

Wilson was te driving force behind the Seattle offense all season, as he threw for 4,110 yards with 31 TDs and just six INTs (106.3). He was backed by a strong running game for most of the season (137.5 YPG ranked 4th) but one-by-one, Seattle RBs got hurt and last Sunday, Homer and Lynch ran for just 19 yards on 17 carries. Lockett was Wilson's favorite target during the season (82 catches / 12.9 YPC / 8 Tds but Sunday it was Metcalf (58 catches / 15.5 YPC / 7 TDs), who was the star. The second-round WR set an NFL postseason rookie record with 160 yards receiving on seven catches, including a 53-yard TD in the third quarter. "It was fun and it was scary at the same time. The way the season's been going, this team, you know I didn't want this to be our last time playing football," the 22-year-old said. Seattle's defense is no longer referred to as "the Legion of Boom," as it allowed 24.9 PPG (22nd) but the D held Philly to just three FGs and 282 total yards, while getting SEVEN sacks!

Rodgers was NOT great in 2019 but he did top 4,000 yards (4,002) and had 26 TDs compared to just FOUR interceptions. RB Aaron Jones had a breakout season, rushing for 1,084 yards (4.6 YPA / 16 TDs) plus caught 49 passes for 474 yards with three TDs. WR Adams played in just 12 games but led the way with 83 catches. FIVE more players caught between 34 and 49 passes, as Jones led that group while TE Jimmy Graham had just 38 receptions in 2019 to mark his lowest total since his rookie year in 2010. The Green Bay offense was middle-of-the-pack all season, averaging 23.5 PPG (15th) on 345.5 YPG (18th). The defense more than held up its own, allowing 19.6 PPG (9th).

For all Seattle's road success this season, the Seahawks have lost EIGHT straight at Lambeau Field and are 1-9 all time in the Packers' stadium. Wilson is 0-3 as a starter at Lambeau with a passer rating of 60.4. Wilson has completed just 55 of 96 his passes (57.3%) for 604 yards with SIX interceptions and just three TDs. What's more, Seattle lost a heart-breaker at home on Dec 29 against the 49ers (could have won NFC West with a win) and then had to fly cross-country to play the Eagles in a Sunday afternoon playoff game. The Seahawks returned to the West Coast after that win and now flies to the Midwest to face Green Bay. That kind of traveling can take a toll. One more thing, the forecast calls for a kickoff temperature in the low 20s, but a potential winter storm is shaping up to arrive in the region Saturday night, bringing gusty winds and up to 10 inches of snow.NONE of this helps the Seahawks.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* "signature' LEGEND Play is on the SF 49ers at 4:35 ET.

Neither the Vikings nor 49ers were in the postseason last year but are two of FOUR teams left in the NFC as the meet at Levi's Stadium on Saturday in the Divisional Round. The Vikings finished 10-6 to earn the No. 6 seed in the NFC and last Sunday, knocked the 13-3 Saints out of the playoffs with a 26-20 OT win in New Orleans. RB Dalvin Cook gained 130 yards from scrimmage (94 yards on the ground with two TDs), after missing the last two regular-season games with a shoulder injury. Kirk Cousin, with a reputation for NOT winning in prime time or against the league's better teams, passed for 242 yards without an interception. He finished with 242 yards and in OT, threw a "perfect" 43-yard pass to Adam Thielen that set up his four-yard game-winning TD pass to TE Rudolph. It was Minnesota's first road playoff win since Jan 9, 2005 (2004 season), when the Vikings beat the rival Packers at Lambeau Field in the wild-card round. The Vikings now get to play top seed San Francisco on Saturday.

The 49er were just 4-12 last season, as QB Jimmy Garoppolo was lost for the season in Week 3. However,  Garoppolo was healthy all season (more later) and the 49ers rode their defense and a 'soft' first-half schedule to open the season 8-0. The 49ers' 5-3 record in the second half was good enough for them to finish 13-3 and via tie-breakers, earn the NFC's top seed. A closer look at San Francisco' second half reveals a heart-breaking 30-27 home OT loss to Seattle (49ers had multiple chances to win), a 20-17 loss at Baltimore (which ended the season on a 14-game winning streak) and a "are you kidding me" 29-22 loss to the Falcons in Week 15 (need to see it to believe it!). Tfive wins came over Arizona, a rout of the 13-3 Packers, a "Game of the Year" 48-46 win at New Orleans, a 34-31 win over last year's NFC champs (Rams) and a thrilling 26-21 win at Seattle, avenging that OT loss and clinching the No. 1 seed. DON'T sell the 49ers short.

Kirk Cousins completed 69.1 % of. his passes this season, throwing for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and just six INTs (career high 107.4 QB rating). Dalvin Cook (1,135 rushing yards /  4.5 YPA / 13 TDs) plus caught 53 passes for 519 yards. He's one of the league's best all-purpose backs and one only need to look at Minnesota's MNF Week 16 loss to Green Bay (Cook sat out) to see his value. Diggs led the team in receptions (63), YPC (17.9) and tied for a team-high with six TDs. Thielen was able to play in just 10 games and caught a modest 30 passes (also six TDs) and his value was on display last Sunday (when healthy), as he caught seven for 129 yards. TE Rudolph (39) and his backup Smith (36) both contributed, with Rudolph tying Diggs and Thielen with six TD catches. The Minnesota D doesn't get enough credit but it allowed just 18.9 PPG (6th-best). Just ask Brees about the Viking D, which held him to 208 yards and a QB rating of 49.6 (note: Not counting Week 2 when Brees left after five attempts, the future HOFer had QB ratings of over 100 in EIGHT of 10 starts!).

Garoppolo is 21-5 as a starter in the NFL (19-2 with the 49ers) and that's been his 'calling card." I've questioned his talent before but he's thrown for more yards than Cousins (3,978), while also completing 69.1% His 27-13 ratio is not far off Cousin's and his QB rating is 102.0. The 49ers don't have a RB in the class of Cook but the trio of Mostert, Brieda and Coleman took turns contributing throughout the season, as San Francisco's 144.1 YPG ground was second to only Baltimore all-time record of 3.296 rushing yards (206.0 YPG). TE Kittle (85 catches / 5 TDs) is the team's best pass-catcher but Samuel (57 catches / 14.1 YPC) and Sanders, are capable. Sanders caught 36 passes in 10 games (after being acquired from Denver) and remember, he averaged 85 catches for 1,200 yards and 20 TD catches from 2014-16 with the Broncos. Yes, San Francisco's D dropped off in the second half, after allowing only 11.0 PPG through its first seven games but when all the dust had settled, San Francisco ranked second in total D (281.8 YPG) and 8th in scoring at 19.4 PPG.

Kudos to Minnesota for winning at New Orleans but should we now ignore this factoid? The  Vikings visit Levi Stadium (outdoors, unlike New Orleans' dome), having gone 1-14-1 SU and 2-14 ATS their last 16 road games against a winning team in an outdoor stadium!! The San Francisco pass DS was No. 1 in allowing only 169.2 YPG, while Minnesota's downfield pass coverage has had more than just occasional  problems this season. South Carolina rookie Deebo Samuel and vet Emmanuel Sanders allow Garoppolo to look downfield more (plus use TE Kittle over the middle) and that's why the 49ers were able to average 29.2 PPG, second to again, only Baltimore. "I'm just glad Kirk can't win big games, apparently," Rudolph 'crowed' after his game-winning TD grab against the Saints. "We proved that one wrong today." My bet is that Rudolph will 'eat' those words come Saturday evening!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the NE Patriots at 8:15 ET.

The New England Patriots jumped out to an 8-0 start but were humbled 37-20 at Baltimore in a SNF game in Week 9. The Pats managed to win FOUR of their next six games (just 3-3 ATS) and were all but penciled in for a first-round bye, as all they needed was to beat lowly Miami at home in their regular-season home finale to clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC. However, as a 17.5-point favorite, the Pats lost 27-24 and now New England will play in the wild-card round for the first time since 2009. Coming to Foxoboro on Saturday night will be the 9-7 Tennessee Titans, who saw their season 'turn' when former Heisman-winner Marcus Mariota was benched in favor of former Miami QB Ryan Tannehill. The Titans' 16-0 loss at Denver left the team at 2-4 but Tannehill's play at QB coupled with the running of  Derrick Henry, saw Tennessee go 7-3 (6-3-1 ATS) over its final 10 games to earn the AFC's final playoff spot.

Tannehill finished the regular season completing 70.3 percent for 2,742 yards with 22 TDs and six INTs, as his QB rating of 117.5 was tops among all QBs. Rookie A.J. Brown caught 52 passes for a 20.2 YPC average with eight TDs. RB Henry topped 100 yards in FIVE of his last six games. He sat out Week 16 but returned in Week 17 to run for 211 yards with three TDs in the 35-14 win at Houston that nailed down the AFC's No. 6 seed. Henry averaged 149.3 YPG over his final five game to surpass Cleveland Nick Chubb to lead the NFL with 1,540 rushing yards (5.1 YPA / 16 TDs). FYI...He averaged 146.3 YPG in his last four contests of 2018 (it's becoming a tradition!). The Tennessee D allows 20.7 PPG (12th) but its pass D is shaky, allowing 255.0 YPG to rank 24th.

There is NOTHING shaky about the New England defense, as despite its late collapse vs Miami last Sunday, the Pats finished No. 1 in the NFL in scoring D (14.1 PPG) and total D (275.9 YPG). New England has needed its defense in 2019, as its offense has fallen off. Brady did throw for 4,057 yards with 24 TDs and just eight INTs but his QB rating of 88.0 was far below his usual standards. Edelman had 100 catches but the receiving corps, as a whole, is one of the worst of Brady's career (RB White had 72 catches and was the ONLY other player with more than 30 catches). Michel ran for 912 yards (just 3.7 YPA) and no other RB had more than 302 rushing yards. The Pats rank 18th with 106.4 YPG rushing on 3.8 YPA.

Many are calling for the Pats to struggle here but I'm NOT one of them. Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel won three Super Bowl rings in eight seasons with New England under coach Bill Belichick and said, "This is about the Titans and our preparation to go up there and face a team that’s won three Super Bowls in the last five years. They’re 8-0 at home (in the playoffs) in that span. They’ve got the No. 1 defense. They’ve got the best coach. They’ve got the best QB. So it’s quite a challenge.” Well said. Ryan Tannehill saw plenty of New England during his tenure with Miami and he has few good memories. It's early January in New England and in a Brady vs Tannehill QB matchup, as well as a HC matchup of Belichick ( SIX Super Bowl rings and 31 playoff wins) vs Vrabel (1st-ever postseason game as a head coach), am I really going to "step in front of" the Pats? Oh by the way, New England is coming off a loss (not just ANY loss but a near-historic one) and they are a remarkable 43-17 ATS (that's 71.7%) off a SU loss going back to Dec 29, 2002. In a tribute to Archie Bunker, I'll say "Case Closed!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 4:35 ET.

The 10-6 Houston Texans have won the AFC South title in in 2019 for the FOURTH time in the last five season but Bill O'Brien's team has just ONE playoff victory in its three postseason appearances. Houston wrapped up the AFC South title with a Week 16 victory in Tampa Bay, allowing head coach O'Brien to rest QB Deshaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins during the team's regular-season finale against Tennessee, one in which the Titans won going away, 35-14. The Buffalo Bills matched Houston with a 10-6 mark, good enough to earn the AFC's top wild card spot. It marks Buffalo's second playoff appearance in three seasons, after a playoff drought that lasted 17 years. The Bills had the No. 5 seed wrapped up heading into Week 17 and QB Josh Allen received an early exit in Buffalo's 13-6 home loss to the Jets. The Bills travel to Houston in search of the franchise's first playoff win since a 37-22 win over Miami in a wild card game back on Dec 30, 1995. The Bills have lost all FIVE postseason games since that victory.

Second-year QB' Josh Allen is completing a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio. However, he has also run for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen is far from being a Pro Bowl QB but he has made great strides in his second season. Allen is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. Allen has helped the Bills rushing game average 128.4 YPG (8th). Vet Frank Gore (599 yards but just 3.6 YPA) was the main man erarly on but the Bills have begun to lean on RB Devin Singletary and the rookie has paid dividends with 775 yards on 5.1 YPA. Allen's top targets are WRs Brown (72 / 14.7 YPC / 5 TDs) and Beasley (67 / 6 TDs). The Bills' bread and butter resides with their defense, which is allowing 16.2 PPG (2nd) on 298.3 YPG (3rd).

Houston QB Deshaun Watson is looking for his first playoff win after struggling in his playoff debut last season, a 21-7 loss to the Colts. When he's on, he's quite superb but he too often reminds us of Jameis Winston (that may be too cold!). Watson has completed 67.3% for 3,852 yards with 26 TDs and 12 INTs. He's also run for 413 yards and seven TDs. The preseason injury to Lamar Smith was supposed to cripple Houston's running game but Carlos Hyde has run for 1,070 yards (4.4 YPA), as Houston is right behind Buffalo in rushing for 125.6 YPG (9th). WR DeAndre Hopkins (104 catches / 7 TDs) was just named 1st-team All Pro and the really good news is that Will Fuller V (49 catches in 11 games) returned to practice this week after injuring his groin in Week 16. Note that the Texans own an 8-3 record and have averaged 26.3 points in games in which Fuller has played this season, as opposed to a 2-3 mark with a 19.6 point average in contests that he has missed. Houston's D is NOT a strength, as the Texans have allowed 24.1 PPG (19th) on 388.3 YPG (28th). However, J.J. Watt will return to the field a little more than two months after surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle in Saturday's game. Watt was a rookie in the 2011 playoffs when his spectacular performance against the Cincinnati Bengals led the Houston Texans to the first postseason win in franchise history. That game was tied at 10-all in the second quarter when Watt tipped a pass from Andy Dalton and grabbed it for an interception, which he returned 29 yards for a TD to put Houston on top for good. The DE also had four tackles, a sack and a quarterback hit in the 31-10 victory.

If one believes in "omens" (good or bad), Watt's return spells G-O-O-D news for the Texans. The Buffalo D is top-notch but the Bills haven't scored more than 17 points in any of their last four games. Allen is a gutty guy but the Bills just have too many offensive limitations to back them in a road playoff game at this price. With Baltimore awaiting the "lucky winner" of this one, maybe bowing out here won't be all that bad. I say the "unlucky winner' with be the home team and the final comes with more than enough "room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Battle 4 NFC West is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET.

The NFC West title is on the line when the first-place San Francisco 49ers (12-3) visit the second-place Seattle Seahawks (11-4) on Sunday night. The 49ers can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs with a victory but a Seattle win would give the Seahawks the division title as they won the first meeting with the 49ers. That first meeting was a Week 10  MNF "classic," in which the Seahawks won 30-27 in OT (FYI...I had Seattle as my Nov Game of the Month!). The stakes are clearly high, as the 49ers will either be the NFC's top-seed (getting home field all the way and earning a bye next weekend), or they will be the No. 5 seed, which would mean a road game next weekend at the NFC East winner (Dallas of Philly). Meanwhile, a season sweep would assure Seattle of at least the No. 3 seed, avoiding a road game next weekend vs that NFC East winner.

Jimmy Garoppolo has gained his "rep" by producing a 20-5 record as an NFL starter, not by putting up 'monster' passing stats. However, he has thrown 27 TD passes against just 13 INTs this season, while throwing for 3,693 yards. If he can throw for 307 yards against Seattle, he would  to join Jeff Garcia (franchise-record 4,278) and Hall of Famer Steve Young (two 4,000-yard campaigns) as the only San Francisco QBs to reach 4,000 yards in a single season. San Francisco is averaging 30.2 PPG (2nd-most) and Jimmy G has had lots of help from his running game this season,as three RBs have battled injuries to rush for between 533 and 715 yards. As a team, only the Ravens (Lamar and Mark) have run for more YPG than San Francisco's 145.1. San Francisco's WRs are nothing more than average (kudos to Jimmy G for making due), although TE Kittle (78 catches) is one of the best in the business. San Francisco's defense has fell off lately (more in a bit) but it enters this final game of the regular season allowing 277.4 YPG (2nd) and 19.3 PPG (8th).

Seattle QB Russell Wilson was a strong contender for MVP honors for most of the season but Lamar Jackson's play  has left all contenders "in the dust." That said, Wilson has thrown for 3,877 yards with 29 TDs and just five INTs, while rushing for 313 yards with three more TDs. For most of the season, he's been buoyed by an excellent rushing attack, led by Chris Carson (1,230 / 4.4 YPA / 7 TDs). However, Seattle's RB situation is a mess after starter Carson (hip) and reserve C.J. Prosise (arm) were hurt last week to join main backup Rashaad Penny (knee) on the injured list. Seattle signed two former team members in Marshawn Lynch (2010-15) and Robert Turbin (2012-14) to support new starter Travis Homer. I guess Curt Warner was NOT available! Seattle's defense no longer bears the moniker "Legion of Boom," as the unit is allowing 24.8 PPG (21st) on 380.5 YPG (26th).

OK, so what's the play, you ask? Yes, Seattle is banged up but let's go back and take a look at that "dominant" San Francisco defense. After allowing only 11 points per game the first seven contests, the Niners have given up 26.5 points PPG over their last eight contests (that's the NINTH-worst total in the league during that span!). Feeling a little better about my Seattle pick? How about trying this stat on? First, let me note that Seattle's home field is one of the loudest in the NFL and Jimmy Garoppolo will be starting in it for the first time, as he missed last season's visit because of a torn ACL. How have the 49ers fared in the Great Pacific Northwest? Not so well. The 49ers have lost EIGHT straight visits to Seattle, including the 2013 NFC Championship Game! Seattle gets to stay home next week with a win and would earn the No. 2 seed if the Packers lose (earning a bye) and the No. 1 seed if the Saints lose, as well (hardly likely). As for  the 49ers, I expect them to lose, which means they are off to Dallas or Philadelphia. 

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Division Game of the Month (AFC West) is on the Den Broncos at 4:25 ET.

The Broncos and Raiders met in Week 1 of the 2-019 season, in the second half of a MNF doubleheader. Oakland won 24-16 in that contest as a 2 1/2-point home dog (I had the Raiders, capping a 4-1 opening week!).  Here's how I opened my analysis of that contest.

Denver went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. The Raiders made it to the Super Bowl in 2002 (lost to Tampa Bay and Jon Gruden) but have since had just ONE winning season in the last 15. Ironically, Jon Gruden was hired away from the TV booth to resurrect the team last season but that hardly went well, as Oakland finished 4-12.

The Raiders enter this contest 7-8 and the Broncos at 6-9. However, thanks to the Steelers and Titans each losing in Week 16, the Raiders actually have a chance (more like a 'prayer') of earning the AFC's No. 6 seed. Here goes. To reach the playoffs, the Raiders need to beat the Broncos and get lots of help. That is; losses by the Titans and Steelers, a win by the Colts and a least a win by the Patriots, Bears, Chargers or Lions. Best of luck. However, NOTHING matters if the Raiders lose.

The Raiders still have a playoff 'prayer' because they beat equally forlorn Chargers 24-17 last Sunday, QB David Carr is completing 71.1% for 3,663 yards with 20 TDs and eight INTs (101.1 QB rating) but he has yet to throw for 300 yards in a SINGLE game this season. He's a "dink-and-dunker"  and other than Sutton (68 catches / 15.6 YPC / 6 TDs) he's got little to work with. Rookie RB Josh Jacobs (from Alabama) has been terrific, running for 1,150 yards (4.8 YPA) and seven TDs but he missed last week's game with a shoulder injury and had surgery to treat a skin injection on his leg Wednesday. Hard to imagine him playing here. DeAndre Washington was a 'savior' last week filling in for Jacobs with a season-high 106 yards from scrimmage (do NOT expect a repeat effort, here!). Darren Waller is second in the league among tight ends with 1,038 yards and third with 84 receptions. He's the first Oakland TE to record 1,000 yards in a season since Todd Christensen in 1986. However, the team's two starting WRs Renfrow (43) and Williams (42) COMBINED to catch just one more catch than Waller. The Oakland defense has been near the bottom of the league all season and enters Week 17 ranked 27th in allowing 26.9 PPG.

The Broncos opened 0-4 (1-3 ATS) but since those early woes, Denver has gone a competitive 8-3 ATS. The signing of Flacco turned out to be a bust plus Brandon Allen hardly looked ready for "primetime." However, as the saying goes, "the third time's the charm!" Drew Lock, a second round pick from Missouri, is the first rookie in franchise history to win THREE of his first four starts. Lock is completing 64.8 percent of his passes with six TDs and three INTs. It appears he has all the tools to lead the franchise moving forward. RB Lindsay (958 / 4.7 YPA / 7 TDs)  will reach 1,000 yards on Sunday plus his backfield partner, Freeman, has 500 rushing yards and 42 catches. Similar to Oakland, Denver has a single pass-catching threat. In this case, it's WR Sutton (68 catches / 15.6 YPC / 6 TDs). The Fangio-coached defense has gotten healthier week-by-week and enters this contest ranking 10th in both points allowed (20.1 PPG) and yards allowed (327.2 YPG).

Why would anyone want to trust Oakland in this one? Heading into its game last Sunday vs the sad-sack Chargers, the Raiders had lost FOUR in a row by an average of 21.7 PPG. Try these stats on for size. Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be in the 30s and that has usually spelled doom for QB Derek Carr and the Raiders. Carr has lost NINE straight starts when it has been below 50 degrees. He owns a 65.9 passer rating in those games, compared to 94.7 in all others. As noted above, Fangio has this Denver defense playing "up to snuff" and one wonders if the unit did not suffer a bout with mono early in the season, just maybe the Broncos would have had an 8-8 or 9-7 season. We do KNOW that the Broncos are 6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS the last seven times hosting Oakland.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Shocker is on the NY Giants at 4:25 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles returned from their Week 10 bye to lose THREE in a row. At 5-7, Philly's postseason chances seemed dim. However, the Eagles have vaulted to the top of the NFC East by putting together a season-high three-game winning streak in defeating each team in their lackluster division. Philly's 17-9 win last Sunday against Dallas means the Eagles can wrap up the NFC East title with a win at the New York Giants. The Giants are just 4-11, after their 41-35 OT win last Sunday against the Redskins. If history is a guide, the Eagles are in good shape. They've beaten the Giants SIX straight times and in 10 of the last 11 meetings.

Most feel as if QB Carson Wentz has had a "down" year but, he's thrown for 3.3750 yards on the season with 26 TDs and just seven INTs. He'll enter this contest having answered the team's three-game losing skid by throwing for 910 yards and six TDs and just one interception in wins over the Giants, Redskins and Cowboys. He's done all that (the last three weeks and for most of the season), while dealing with an injury-depleted WR corps. TEs Ertz (88 catches / 6 TDs) and Goedert (54 catches / 5 TDs) have been terrific but Ertz's availability for Sunday's game is in question after he sustained a broken rib against the Cowboys. "He is progressing, getting better. We'll keep monitoring him each day," head coach Doug Pederson said. Howard opened as the team's featured RB and played well when healthy (525 yards / 4.4 YPA / 6 TDs) but he hasn't played since Week 9 with an injured shoulder. However, he is expected to gain clearance to return to the backfield following a six-game absence. He'll be welcomed back but Miles Sanders has rolled up 328 scrimmage yards and three total TDs in his last two games. He has 766 rushing yards and 1,276 yards from scrimmage, with both totals serving as franchise records for a rookie. Philly's D has had a injury-filled season as well but has gotten healthier and now ranks 9th in total D (327.3 YPG) and 16th in scoring D (22.5 PPG).

The Giants ended a nine-game losing streak with 36-20 win at home in Week 15 over the Dolphins (Eli's last game with the Giants?) and then last Sunday, with rookie Daniel Jones back at QB, won 41-35 (OT) at Washington, as Jones (23 TDs / 11 TDs) passed for 352 yards with five TDs (zero INTs). More big news coming out of the Giants' last two wins is the return to "elite form" for RB  Saquan Barkley. He's run for 301 yards and three TDs in the back-to-back wins and now has 911 yards (4.6 YPA / 5 TDs) on the season, along with 49 catches. New York's WRs are finally healthy and Jones, Barkley and Co. will test Philly's improving defense. The Giants D is vulnerable (27.8 PPG ranks 29th), so it will be up to New York's offense to win this one.

The Giants gave the Eagles all they could handle when the teams three weeks ago, losing in overtime after being ahead by two TDs. In that one, the Giants had
old man Eli at QB plus Barkley not fully recovered from a high ankle sprain (was held to just 66 yards).  For this one, Barkley is back to 100 percent and Daniel Jones is fresh off a confidence-boosting effort last Sunday (see above for both). NOTHING has come easy for Philly this year and note that in the team's three-game winning streak, they needed to come back against both the Giants and Redskins, before slipping past the incompetent Cowboys. The Eagles' playoff fate is in their hands but a Philadelphia loss, coupled with Dallas win over Washington on Sunday, will spell the end of the Eagles' season. I see that as a very likely scenario.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

lt's called the "Battle of Ohio" but the winner of this Week 17 game between the 6-9 Browns and 1-14 Bengals wins nothing more than a "booby prize." The Cleveland Browns dropped their last two games, clinching another playoff-less campaign despite high expectations and have not made the playoffs since 2002 (last won a playoff game when Bill Belichick coached them past the New England Patriots in the 1994 divisional round). Their streak of 17 seasons without a playoff appearance is the longest active one in the league. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals clinched the worst record in the NFL and the No. 1 draft pick with its 38-35 overtime loss at Miami last week. The Browns posted a 27-19 home win over the Bengals in Week 14 and now own a three-game winning streak in the series, after dropping the previous six meetings.

Baker Mayfield had an excellent rookies season (27 TDs / 14 INTs / 93.1 QB rating) and expectations were high for him and the Browns enter the 2019 season (Cleveland was featured on SI's NFL preview edition). However, Mayfield has 19 INTs and 18 INTs with a 79.1 QB rating entering this final game. The Browns opened 2-6, with Mayfield throwing seven TDs and 12 INTs. A three-game winning streak followed (Mayfield d has seven TDs and just one INT) but the Browns have lost THREE of the their last four, with Mayfield throwing five TDs and INTs. It's not like he doesn't have quality offense 'weapons,' as RB Chubb (1,453 yards / 5.1 YPA / 11 TDs  / 35 catches) is closing in on the league's rushing title. Chubb leads Carolina's Christian McCaffrey by 92 yards and has a chance to clinch the title against a Bengals defense that has struggled against the run. WRs Landry (81 catches / 5 TDs) and OBJ (71 catches / 3 TDs) are a talented duo but the fact that they have combined to catch just eight TDs is troubling. To add insult to injury, Beckham (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday.

Cincinnati has been at the bottom of the league all season but the team is still putting in the effort. Cincy scored 16 points in 29 seconds to force overtime last week (lost 38-35 in OT), as QB Andy Dalton threw four TD passes without an interception. Dalton (3,304 yards 15 TDs a& 13 INTs ) has one year left on his contract, so he could be playing his final game for the team that made him a second-round draft pick in 2011.Then again, the Bengals could keep him to mentor a new QB through a rookie season. The Bengals placed WR A.J. Green (ankle) on IR Monday, officially ending a season in which he did not play a snap after suffering the injury in the preseason. Boyd (85 catches / 5 TDs) has been the team's top receiver and RB Joe Mixon is set to surpass 1,000 rushing yards for the second straight season (he has 975). It's hard to hide the fact that Cincy ranks last in scoring (16.4 PPG), while allowing 26.5 PPG (25th).

Cleveland hasn't finished with a winning record since going 10-6 in 2007. Since then, the Browns have gone 4-12 and 5-11 three times, won seven games twice, and had a three-year stretch of 3-13, 1-15 and 0-16. Their streak of 17 seasons without a playoff appearance is the longest active one in the league. As for Cincinnati, the Bengals  wrap up their fourth straight losing season. They haven't won a playoff game since the 1990 season, the fifth-longest streak of postseason futility in the NFL's century-old history. During that 29-year span, they've had only seven winning seasons. Some "Battle of Ohio," right? That said, the Bengals have secured the top overall draft pick and would love nothing more than to beat the Browns. Why not take some points with the Bengals? The dysfunctional Browns have lost and failed to cover their last FIVE road games!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Game of the Year is on the Min Vikings at 8:15 ET.

The Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears 21-13 in Week 15, upping their record to 11-3 (tied with New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle for the NFC's best record). The Packers are a long-shot to get the No. 1 seed but are the favorite to win the NFC North. A win over the Vikings on Monday night will clinch the division for Green Bay but even with a loss, the Packers would still win the NFC North by beating the Lions in Detroit in Week 17 (the Lions are currently 3-10-1). The Vikings routed the Chargers 39-10 in LA last Sunday and enter this contest 10-4 and all but assured of at the least, a wild card spot. The only way Minnesota doesn't clinch a wild card spot would be by losing their last two games (host the Bears in Week 17), while the LA Rams win their final two games, at San Francisco on Saturday and at home in Week 17 to the Cardinals. Assuming that the Packers lose here but win at Detroit, the Vikings will be relegated to a wild card spot.   They could only earn the No. 5 seed (a great position, as the five-seed will play the NFC East champ, either Dallas or Philly) if the 49ers OR Seahawks lose out and the Vikings win out. That sets the stage for this MNF contest. Confused?

The Packers may be 11-3 but they seem to have a patent on “winning ugly” in 2019. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 3,463  yards with 24 TDs and just two INTs (in 474 attempts) but similar to Tom Brady, he just hasn't "looked right' in 2019. The Packers rank just 21st in total offense (336.6 YPG) and 14th in scoring (14th). RB Aaron Jones has been Rodgers' "main' man," rushing for 830 yards (4.4 YPA) while scoring 14 TDs. He's also caught 45 passes for three more TDs. Adams leads the team with 63 catches (just 4 TDs) but no other WR has even HALF as many receptions as Adams. Defensively, the Packers are allowing 371.3 YPG (to rank 23rd) but the team has fared better in the category of points allowed (20.2 PPG ranks 9th).

Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins has often been criticized but he's completing 70.5 percent on the season with 25 TDs and just five INTs (111.1 QB rating ranks fourth-best). RB Cook (1,175 RY / 4.5 YPA / 13 TDs plus has added 53 catches for 519 yards) is one of the NFL's best all-purpose RBs. He hurt his should again last Sunday and there are conflicting reports surrounding his availability for this game. He's listed as doubtful but Cook has said "Im playing." WR Stefon Diggs has 60 catches (17.9 YPC / 5 TDs) and fellow WR Thielen played last week and had three catches (he has 30 catches but six TDs in nine games). Minnesota has two-headed TE combo (Rudolph and Smith) and the duo has combined for 71 catches and eight TDs. The Vikings offense has played well all season, ranking seventh in scoring (27.0 PPG) and their defense also ranks seventh in allowing a modest 18.5 PPG.

The Packers will likely win the division but the Vikings GUARANTEE themselves a wild card spot with a win here. Minnesota is a perfect 6-0 at home and as noted earlier, Rodgers (like Brady), just seems 'off.' The Packers enter this contest averaging only 19.6 PPG their last six contests and Rodgers enters the game averaging just 189.8 YPG passing in that span. Meanwhile, the oft-maligned Cousisns has thrived since the Vikings installed a moving pocket for him, after the team went 2-2 in September. Minnesota is 8-2 since then, with Cousins throwing 22 TDs and just three INTs, posting QB ratings of over 100.0 SEVEN times. Never thought I'd ever say this but....I'm taking Cousins over Rodgers in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Battle 4 NFC East is on the Phi Eagles at 4:25 ET.

The NFC East boasts a rich and decorated history but 2019 will NOT go down as a memorable season, unless one wants to focus on the moniker, "NFC Least." The Cowboys, Eagles Giants and Redskins have 'earned' that title, as the four teams are a combined 20-36 (.357), with Dallas and Philly 'leading' the way at 7-7.The Cowboys got a much-need 44-21 win last Sunday, snapping the team's second three-game losing streak of the season. Meanwhile, the Eagles come into this contest off back-to-back wins over the division's two bottom teams, needing OT to beat the Giants in a Week 15 home MNF contest and a fumble return for TD on the game's final play to get past the Reskins, 34-24 in Washington (the Eagles had just scored the go-ahead TD with 26 seconds remaining in the game). Dallas can clinch the division title with a win, while an Eagles win puts Philadelphia in control of its own destiny.

Dallas QB Prescott has thrown for 4,334 yards (2nd-best to Tampa Bay's Winston) with 26 TDs and 11 INTs. He's been dealing with a sprained right shoulder that limited him in practice this week but he declared that he'll "be good to go on Sunday," choosing to NOT add any additional drama surrounding this high-stakes game. WRs Amari Cooper has 71 catches and is averaging 15.1 YPC with eight TDs. Fellow WRs Gallup (56 / 16.3 YPC) and Cobb (45 / 15.0 YPC) give Dallas three receivers all averaging 15-plus yards per catch (that's impressive). RB Ezekiel Elliott had 117 rushing and 43 receiving yards (along with two TDs) in the Cowboys' 44-21 romp over the Rams and checks in with 1,188 yards on the season (4.4 YPA / 11 TDs). The current  Dallas D does not remind anyone of "Doomsday" Part 1 or 2, but the Cowboys rank seventh in total D (323.6 YPG ) and 12th in scoring D (20.6 PPG).

Most feel as if QB Carson Wentz has had a poor year and he sure was awful in when the Eagles lost 37-10 to the Cowboys in Week 7 at Dallas (he tossed an interception and had two of Philadelphia's three lost fumbles). However, he's thrown for 3,431 yards on the season with 25 TDs and just seven INTs. He'll enter this contest having answered the team's three-game losing skid by throwing for 591 yards and five TDs without an interception in wins over the Giants and Redskins. He's done all that (the last two weeks and for most of the season), while dealing with an injury-depleted WR corps. TE  Zach Ertz is headed to his third straight Pro Bowl with 84 catches and six TDs (47 receptions for 544 yards and five TDs have come over the last six games). The team's second TE, Goedert, has 45 catches and four TDs. Howard opened as the team's featured RB and played well when healthy (525 yards / 4.4 YPA / 6 TDs) but he hasn't played since Week 9. Miles Sanders had 172 scrimmage yards (122 rushing, 50 receiving) in the Eagles' 37-27 victory over Washington last Sunday to boost his season total to 1,120 (687 rushing), with both  totals serving as franchise records for a rookie. Philly's D has had a injury-filled season as well but has gotten healthier and now ranks 9th in total D (328.5 YPG) and 19th in scoring D (23.4 PPG).

No matter how many times the Cowboys disappoint, they still seem to have plenty who will say that Dallas will nail down the NFC East title, here. I'm NOT one of them. Wentz has battled through a tough season and enters this contest with at least one TD pass in 17 straight games, the longest streak of any QB. The Cowboys do not own a SINGLE win against a team that is currently "in" the playoff field and has lost to playoff-bound teams New Orleans, Green Bay, Minnesota, New England and Buffalo. Lose here and the Cowboys will likely make Philly a playoff team in 2019. That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

 

My 10* Division Game of the Month (AFC East) is on the NE Patriots at 4:30 ET.

The 10-4 Buffalo Bills and 11-3 New England are both in the postseason but there still is plenty at stake when the AFC East rivals square off Saturday afternoon at Gillette Stadium. New England, clinched a record 11th consecutive trip to the playoffs last week but the Pats can wrap up the division title and has a chance to earn a first-round bye with a win against the visiting Bills. History is sure on New England's side, as following a hard-fought 16-10 victory at Buffalo in Week 4 the Pats have won SIX straight against the Bills and 34 of the last 39! However, the Bills would argue, that was THEN and this is NOW. Buffalo has won FOUR of its last five, including road victories at Dallas and Pittsburgh, and holds a two-game edge for the fifth seed in the AFC and still has a shot at the division title with two wins and two losses by New England. However, that's NOT likely, as the Pats host the 3-11 Dolphins in Week 17.

Head coach Sean McDermott has done an excellent job with the Bills,as he has Buffalo in the postseason for the second time in his three years, after Buffalo had missed the previous 17 seasons. Second-year QB' Josh Allen is completing a modest 59.3% for 2,876 yards with an 18-9 TD/INT ratio. He also has run for 467 yards and nine TDs. Allen is far from a being a Pro Bowl QB but he has made great strides in his second season. Allen is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (28) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons plus has two more games to add to that total. Allen helps the Bills rushing game (see above), while rookie Singletary (729 yards / 5.4 YPA) and the ageless Gore (573 yards / 3.6 YPA) join him to give the Bills the NFL's fifth-best rushing attack (134.9 YPG). Allen's top targets are WRs Brown (71 / 14.2 YPC / 5 TDs) and Beasley (60 / 11.2 YPC / 6 TDs). The Buffalo D is playing as well as any the last month, limiting THREE of four opponents to 15 points or less and now ranks second in points allowed (15.9 PPG) and third in total D (291.9 YPG) on the season.

That said, NO team has played better defense in 2019 than the Pats. New England ranks first in scoring D (12.9 PPG) , as well as total D (268.4 YPG). The defense has been the key to a season in which Tom Brady has looked 'old,' the running game has never really produced with any consistency and the receiving corps has struggled with injuries and basically, a lack of quality talent. Brady has thrown for 3,565 yards with 21 TDs (his 17th straight season of at least 20) and seven INTs, hardly one of his better seasons. The running game ranks 19th, averaging only 101.8 YPG (Michel has 742 yards on just 3.6 YPA). Edelman (92 catches / 6 TDs) continues to play like the Energizer Bunny but other than RB White, who has 65 catches, the remaining group of New England receivers leave a lot to be desired. However, despite ranking 18th in total offense (349.9 YPG), the Pats are finding a way to average 26.6 PPG (8th-best).

Here's the bottom line. Gillette Stadium opened in 2002 and has been a 'house of  horrors' for Buffalo, as the Bills have won just TWO of 17 visits there. One of the victories occurred when Tom Brady was serving a suspension and the other time being when Brady just played a half. I gave kudos to Buffalo's McDermott earlier (with good reason) but he's 0-5 vs the Patriots, losing by an average margin of  15.6 PPG. As noted earlier, the Patriots are averaging 26.8 PPG. Meanwhile, the Bills rank 28th in passing and are 22nd in points (20.8), having scored 17 or fewer points in HALF of its 14 games. What's more, the only teams the Bills have beaten that now own a winning record are the 8-6 Titans and the 8-6 Steelers (reminder: Pats are 11-3). Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

The Houston Texans 'cooled off' the red-hot Titans last Sunday in Nashville, edging Tennessee 24-21. The victory gives the Texans a 9-5 record and they can clinch the AFC South division for the FOURTH  time in five seasons on Saturday afternoon when they visit the suddenly streaking Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose four-game winning streak is the team's longest since a five-game run in 2016.

QB Deshaun Watson was selected to the Pro Bowl for the second straight year, as he nears another 4,000-yard campaign. When on, Watson is among the very best in the league but he's been known to be inconsistent. Watson is completing 67.8% for 3,668yards with 26 TDs and 11 INTs, while adding 376 rushing yards (5.0 YPA) and seven more scores. WR DeAndre Hopkins joins him as a Pro Bowl selection. He has 99 catches with seven TDs and needs one catch to record his third career 100-reception season. Fellow WR Fuller is a terrific partner but has struggled with injuries (not sure about his availability for this one). TEs Akins and Fells each have 31 catches with Fells tying Hopkins for a team-high seven TD receptions. RB Hyde (1,030 yards / 4.6 YPA / 5 TDs) has been a 'savior,' stepping in when Lamar Smith was lost for the year in the preseason. Houston is hopeful that defensive lineman J.J. Watt (pectoral), who has been out since Week 9, could return in the postseason. Houston's defense has been up-and-down without him, allowing 23.6 PPG (19th) on 379.4 YPG (28th).

The Bucs were just 3-7 after 10 games but as noted above, have won FOUR in a row but need to win these last two weeks for just their SECOND winning season in the last nine years. QB Jameis Winston continued his hot streak in last week's 38-17 win at Detroit, passing for 458 yards and four TDs. Tampa Bay owns the NFL's third-ranked offense (400.1 YPG), led by the league's top-ranked passing attack (308.8 YPG). Winston became the first player in NFL history to throw for at least 450 yards in consecutive games (vs Indy in Week 15 and against Detroit in Week 16). He leads the league with 4,573 passing yards on the season and could become just the 12th player in league history to throw for 5,000 yards in a season. WR Goodwin leads the team with 86 yards (15.5 YPC / 9 TDs) but is nursing an ailing hamstring. What's more, Mike Evans (67 catches / 17.3 YPC / 8 TDs) is now on injured reserve. The running game is woeful, averaging 91.4 YPG (3.5 YPA), ranking 28th. The defense is allowing 350.1 YPG (15th) but 28.4 PPG, which ranks 30th.

With the pressure is off at 3-7, the Buccaneers put together a four-game win streak. Big deal. Those victories have been against the Lions, Colts, Jags and Falcons, who take a combined record of 19-36-1 (.348) into Week 16. Winston may have 30 TD passes but he also has 24 INTs, SIX more than any other QB. Watson is an elite QB with dual threat  skills, while Winston just could wind up with a 30-30 season (TD-INT). The Buccaneers are 2-4 SU & 0-5-1 ATS at home this season and I see little reason for them to 'spoil' Houston's chance to clinch its division.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Madness Play is on the NO Saints at 8:15 ET.

Drew Brees threw for 325 yards and five TDs (zero INTs) last Sunday, leading the Saints to 46 points. However, the 'kicker' is that New Orleans allowed the 49ers to score 48 points while rolling up 516 yards. The loss dropped the Saints (along with the Seahawks) one game behind the 49ers in the race for the NFC's  No. 1 seed . However, the Saints (as well as Seattle) got some help on Sunday from the Falcons, who beat the 49ers 29-22 in San Francisco. Seattle won its Sunday game at Carolina and is now 11-3 and owns the tie-breaker over San Francisco in the NFC West The 10-3 Saints reside in the NFC South but can now tie those two NFC West teams at 11-3 atop the NFC along with 11-3 Green Bay (tie-breakers pending) with a win over the visiting 6-7 Indianapolis Colts, who enter having lost FIVE of their last six.

The Colts were once 5-2 but they're now one loss from playoff elimination. QB Jacoby Brissett has done a good job at QB (was thrust into the starter's role with the abrupt retirement of Andrew Luck), completing 63.2% for 2,496 yards with 18 TDs and just six INTs. However, he threw for a pair of TD passes for the first time since Sep 29 in last Sunday's 38-35 setback to Tampa Bay. Brissett has been greatly hampered by the fact that four-time Pro Bowl selection T.Y. Hilton has missed five of his last six games with an ailing calf, after sitting out only four games in first seven seasons. Hilton has played in just seven games this season (35 catches / 10.8 YPC / 5 TDs) and will be a game-time decision here. Third-year RB Marlon Mack returned last week and played with a broken hand (900 yards / 4.4 YPA) but had just 38 yards on 13 carries. Here, he will face a New Orleans rush defense allowing just 94.Y2 YPG (4th). Indy's defense has been shredded for 69 points the last two games and can't be looking forward to seeing Drew Brees.

The Saints went 5-0 while Drew Brees was out with a thumb injury early this season. but while Bridgewater deserves kudos for the job he did, it's GREAT to have Brees back. After last week's game, he's completing 72.5% on the season with 17 TDs and just four INTs (109.5 QB rating). RB Alvin Kamara's offensive numbers haven't been up to his lofty standards but he's got 612 rushing yards (4.4 YPA) and has added 68 catches. He's ably helped by Murray, who has 533 yards (4.7 YPA) with five TDs. WR Michael Thomas has shown no sign of a letdown, as he made 11 catches for 134 yards last week to join Antonio Brown as the lone NFL players to have more than one season with 120-plus receptions and 1,400-plus receiving yards. Thomas has 121 catches  for 1,424 yards (7 TDs) and he and Brees will exploit an Indianapolis' pass defense that allowed Tampa Bay's Winston to throw for 456 yards and four TDPs last Sunday.

The Saints really need a win here to join Seattle and San Francisco at 11-3, as those two will meet in Week 17, where one HAS to lose. The Saints have NOT been as dominant at home recently (as in the past) but this Indy team is 'limping' to the finish line. The Saints will honor the 10-year anniversary of their only Super Bowl win, by bringing members of the 2009 team together for a reunion prior to the game. New Orleans posted a 31-17 victory over Indianapolis in Super Bowl XLIV. Another 14-pont margin, at a minimum, is expected here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the Pit Steelers at 8:20 ET.

The 9-4 Buffalo Bills had a three-game winning streak come to an end in a 24-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday and are staring at a tough two-game road stretch as they try to lock up a playoff spot. The Bills are currently the No. 1 wild card team but they must  visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday and  then  have to travel to Foxboro to take on the Patriots. The 8-5 Steelers are surging with wins in THREE straight and SEVEN of their last eight, but the red-hot Titans are also 8-5 (Pittsburgh currently owns the tie-breaker), after winning FOUR in a row. If the Titans beat the Texans earlier today, the loser of this game will be 'sweating.'

Buffalo QB Josh Allen has make great strides in his second season, as he'thrown foir 2,737 yards (17 TDs / 8 INTs) plus run for 439 yards and eight TDs. Allen is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (27) and 12 rushing TDs (16) in his first two seasons plus has three more games to add to that total. However, he struggled against a tough defense last week, completing just 17 of 39 (43.6%) for a modest 146 yards (QB rating of only 62.6). Buffalo's running game is averaging 135.3 YPG (5th) but Buffalo is only scoring 21.1 PPG (20th). However, its defense ranks second in points allowed (16.3 per) and third total D (296.8YPG).

The Steelers lost their first three games and Big Ben was lost in Week 2, for the season. However, using a combination of Mason Rudolph and Devlin "Duck" Hodges at QB, Mike Tomlin has his team right in the playoff hunt. Hodges became the first undrafted rookie to win his first three starts with last week's 23-17 triumph over Arizona. "He's been able to gain more traction and gain more exposure," Tomlin told reporters of Hodges, who is completing 71.3 percent of his passes and went 16-of-19 for 152 yards and a touchdown last week. Some good news could be coming Hodges' way, as RB James Conner (shoulder) and wide-out JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) both returned to practice this week. Kudos to the jobs Rudolph and Hodges have done but Pittsburgh's turnaround has been fueled by its defense, which has allowed  just 14.6 PPG over its last five games.

The 'knock' on Buffalo has been that the only team with a current winning record that the Bills have beaten is Tennessee (8-5, after four straight wins). As for Pittsburgh, while Baltimore's John Harbaugh is likely to be named coach of the year, Mike Tomlin deserves serious consideration. His Steelers opened 0-3 and again, Big Ben was lost for the season in Week 2. However, the Steelers have won EIGHT of 10 since that 0-3 start, losing only in OT at home to Baltimore and 21-7 at Cleveland. This is Pittsburgh's final home game of the season and a win here plus a win at the Jets in Week 16 would get them to 10 wins, meaning its Week 17 game at Baltimore may not need to be won. We saw Allen struggle last week vs Baltimore's D (at home) and here on the road, Pittsburgh's D should again give him fits. Pittsburgh lost two of its first three home games (by two points to Seattle and in OT by three to Baltimore) but is 5-0 SU and ATS in its other five home games (has won FOUR straight), holding those opponents to 13.2 PPG. Steelers get the win.

Good luck...Larry