My NFL 10* Game of the Week is on the Dal Cowboys at 4:25 ET.

The 8-5 Los Angeles Rams are two games better than the 6-7 Dallas Cowboys but they face an uphill climb to make the playoffs with just three games remaining in the regular season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are below .500 and mired in a three-game losing streak, but currently are tied for the NFC East lead with Philadelphia, while owning the tiebreaker due to a 37-10 Week 7 home win over the Eagles. LA's postseason chances appeared to be on 'life-support' following a 45-6 drubbing by Baltimore in Week 12 but the Rams have rebounded with lopsided victories over Arizona and Seattle to move within one game of Minnesota for the sixth seed in the NFC. In contrast, the Cowboys have lost THREE in a row and badly need a win here, as they travel to Philadelphia next Sunday

The Rams were the NFC's highest scoring team in 2018, averaging 32.9 PPG (only KC scored more in the AFC) but they managed only 35 points in a three-game stretch (1-2),  before erupted for 62 points in back-to-back victories in Weeks 13 and 14. Jared Goff threw for 717 yards and four TDs in the two wins, after posting QB ratings of 51.2, 69.9 and 62.0 with five INTs and zero TDs while averaging only 209.3 YPG passing in from Weeks 10 through Week 12. Is the Rams' offense back? Maybe but I'm not sure? Gurley is NOT the same player he was last season, WR Woods has just one TD reception all season and fellow WR Cooks' miserable season continued against the Seahawks, and his limited playing time (27 of 70 offensive snaps) is another concern to add to the list. He's been held to just 12 receptions for 162 yards over the past seven games (note: he's averaged 80 catches for over 1,200 yards the last five seasons).

Dak Prescott leads the league in passing yards (4,122) while Ezekiel Elliott (1,071 yards) and Amari Cooper (1,054 yards) each rank fifth in their respective categories, marking the first time Dallas has a 4,000-yard passer along with a 1,000-yard rusher and receiver. However, while Dallas is averaging an NFL-high 430.8 YPG, the Cowboys' average of 25.7 PPG ranks just 9th-best. On the defensive side of the ball, Dallas has been reasonably consistent all season and enters this contest allowing 20.5 PPG (12th) on 326.2 YPG (8th).

I realize the Cowboys are in a funk but a win here gives them a chance to clinch the NFC East next Sunday. The Rams' win over Arizona hardly proves anything and while the Rams dominated a strong Seattle team last Sunday, the Seahawks were overdue for a 'flat spot' after three straight hard-fought wins at San Francisco and Philadelphia plus at home to Minnesota. My bet says the Cowboys "come up big," while the Rams playoff hopes all but disappear with a loss.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Min Vikings at 4:05 ET.

The 9-4 Minnesota Vikings hope to move closer to a playoff spot when they visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. Minnesota is one game ahead of the LA Rams in the battle for the NFC's second wild-card spot but also stands just one game behind Seattle for the No. 1 wild card spot, as well as one game behind the first-place Green Bay Packers in the NFC North. As for the 5-8 Chargers, they have already been eliminated from playoff contention, missing the playoffs for the EIGHTH time in the last 10 seasons.

Minnesota DE Danielle Hunter recorded three sacks in last Sunday's 20-7 victory over the Detroit Lions, raising his season total to 12.5 and career count to 52.5 (note: he's the youngest player, at 25 years, 40 days, in NFL history to reach 50 career sacks. He's the star of a defense that has allowed 14 or less points in five games and enters this contest allowing 19.2 PPG (7th). Dalvin Cook (1,108 RY / 4.6 YPA / 13 TDs plus 50 catches for 503 yards) is one of the NFL's best all-purpose RBs, while WR Stefon Diggs (56 catches / 997 yards / 17.8 YPC / 5 TDs) will top 1,000 receiving yards on Sunday. That will make them the first Minnesota duo since RB Adrian Peterson (1,383 rushing) and Sidney Rice (1,312 receiving) in 2009 to each top 1,000 yards. QB Kirk Cousins is often criticized but he's s completing 70.1 percent on the season with 24 TDs and just four INTs (112.0 QB rating ranks third-best).

Los Angeles established season highs for points, total offense (525 yards) and first downs (27) against Jacksonville in last Sunday's 45-10 win. Rivers has thrown for 3,748 yards and is almost assured of eclipsing 4,000 passing yards for the 7th straight season and for the 11th time in the last 12. However, he's thrown 15 INTs putting him on pace for the third-most in any of his seasons. WR Allen has 81 catches but fellow WR Williams has 40 catches with just one TD, after catching 10 last season.  RB Gordon has played in just nine games (only 523 yards on 4.0 YPC), while backup Ekeler has 481 yards (4.3 YPA) plus a 73 receptions (team-high 8 TD catches). LA's defense is allowing just 19.3 PPG and ALL eight of the team's losses have come by seven points or less.

Yes, the Chargers are MUCH better than their 5-8 record, as they own a plus-38 point differential. However, LA's late-game execution has doomed them repeatedly all season. In contrast, the Vikings pulled out a pair of narrow victories in November, helping their playoff push which has seen them win SEVEN of nine with Cousins throwing 21 TD passes against just two INTs in that nine-game stretch. The Vikings have only lost at KC and Seattle in their last nine games and as noted above, the Chargers have found ways to lose games all season. No "margin" to worry about here and I believe the Vikings win quite handily.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 15 Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 1:00 ET.

The 10-3 Seattle Seahawks will travel to Charlotte to take on the 5-8 Carolina Panthers on Sunday. The Seahawks had a five-game winning streak snapped with last week's 28-12 loss at the Los Angeles Rams and are one game behind the first-place San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West, while holding the top wild-card spot. Carolina won FIVE of six after an 0-2 start but at 5-3, has dropped FIVE straight games. That led to the firing of ninth-year head coach Ron Rivera earlier this month, with Perry Fewell being named interim coach for the remainder of the season

The Seahawks have posted EIGHT straight winning seasons under coach Pete Carroll and with a win on Sunday, can clinch a playoff berth for the SEVENTH time in eight seasons. QB Russell Wilson has thrown 26 TD passes while being intercepted just five times but after posting a 118.2 QB rating through his first nine games, Wilson is at just 82.7 over the past four (4 TDs and 4 INTs during the stretch). Seattle's had a excellent set of complementary RBs with Chris Carson (1.057 yards on 4.3 YPA and 5 TDs) as the primary option and Rashaad Penny (370 yards on 5.7 YPA and 4 TDs) as the change of pace. However, Penny suffered an ACL injury on his first offensive touch last Sunday against the Rams and is through for the season. Seattle's "Legion of Boom" defense is no more, as Seattle is allowing 24.7 PPG (23rd) on 335.5 YPG (26th)

Fewell said that Kyle Allen, who has thrown 12 interceptions over the past seven games, will remain the QB over third-round pick Will Grier. Just maybe, the Panthers actually do miss Cam Newton. Newton underwent foot surgery earlier this week and there are no guarantees he will be back with Carolina for the final season of his contract. Then there is Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey has 1,220 rushing yards and 726 receiving yards and is looking to join Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig as the only players in NFL history to reach 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season. He needs 274 yards receiving in the last three games to join that elite club. The Carolina defense is allowing 27.7 PPG (5th-most) on 373.9 YPG (9th-most).

The Seahawks were overdue for a 'flat spot' after three straight hard-fought wins at San Francisco and Philadelphia plus at home to Minnesota. I don't make too much of Seattle's loss at the Rams. The Seahawks have won seven of the 10 regular-season meetings with the Panthers and are 4-0 at Carolina in the regular season during the Russell Wilson era. Let's NOT forget that Seattle was 6-0 SU on the road prior to last Sunday OR that Carolina has been outscored on average 31.2-to-18.2 PPG during its current five-game slide. Seattle clinches a playoff spot with a win, as Carolina's slide continues.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 14 Las Vegas Insider is on the NE Pats at 4:25 ET.

The New England Patriots opened the season 8-0 but a Week 9 loss at Baltimore (37-20) ended the team's run at replicating the 16-0 regular season they accomplished back in . Now, as team welcomes the KC Chiefs to Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, last Sunday's 28-22 loss at Houston leaves the Pats at 10-2, tied for teh NFL's best record with the 49ers, Saints, Seahawks and Ravens),. However, the pats have lost their grip on the No. 1 seed for the AFC playoffs Ravens own the tie-breaker due to that Week 9 win). The Patriots look to rebound from their second loss in four weeks and clinch their 11th consecutive postseason berth against visiting Kansas City on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs suffered a pair of narrow defeats to New England last season, 37-34 in the regular season (MNF in New England) and a 37-31 home loss in the AFC championship game , one that kept them from reaching the Super Bowl. However, the 8-4 Chiefs can clinch the AFC West title with a win (would also need an Oakland loss) and in the process, could end the Patriots' 18-game home winning streak.

QB Patrick Mahomes 'exploded' on the scene in 2018, throwing for 5,097 yards with 50 TDs and just 12 INTs (113.8 QB rating) to win the league's MVP award. He opened strong again in 2019, throwing for 1,510 yards (377.5 per) in KC's 4-0 start with 10 TDs and zero INTs. However, KC then lost back-to-back home games to the Colts (19-13) and Texans (31-24). The following week in Denver (on a Thursday night), Mahomes suffered a dislocated kneecap that kept him sidelined for the next two games. He returned in Week 10 at home against the Titans and while he threw for 446 yards, KC lost 35-32. The Chiefs have won two in a row since (sandwiched around a bye week), but Mahomes has thrown for just 182 and 175 yards in those wins. Mahomes sure doesn't get much help from his running game, with Darrel Williams going on injured reserve and Damien Williams (rib) still not practicing. The leaves veteran LeSean McCoy and rookie Darwin Thompson to carry the load, which they haven't done very well. KC is averaging 94.5 YPG (24th). The defense has started to play better but KC still can't stop the run, allowing 141.3 YPG, third-worst in the NFL.

Tom Brady know all about not getting much support from his running game. New England barely averages more rushing yards than KC (96.3 YPG) but the Pats are averaging a pathetic 3.5 YPA, to KC's 4.2. New England's offense continues to sputter and only two late TD passes from Brady last week enabled the team to surpass 20 points for the first time in the last four games. Yes, Brady has 18 TD passes against six interceptions but he has barely completed more than 50 percent of his passes over the last three games and has not registered a QB rating of at least 100.0 since Week 5 at Washington. Since opening with seven TDs and zero INTs in his first three games, Brady's ratio is just 11-6 over the Pats' last nine games, as he's thrown one or zero TD passes SIX times. However, New England's defense has been superb, allowing an NFL-low 12.1 PPG on 258.0 YPG (2nd).

Here's the bottom line. Mahomes has not looked the same in his last two games and while New England's and Brady's recent play have caused some to say, "the Pats are finally becoming human," this is NOT the spot to go against them. The Patriots have lost to the Ravens and Texans, failed to cover against the Cowboys and only scored 17 points in beating the Eagles in their last four games (have averaged just 18.0 PPG in that span). However, the two losses have come on the road, NOT here in Foxboro. New England has won 22  straight home games (including the postseason), with 19 coming by SIX points or more. Want more? New England is coming off a loss and the Pats are a remarkable 42-16 ATS (that's 72.4%) off a SU loss going back to Dec 29, 2002.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

The NFL enters Week 14 with FIVE 10-2 teams The AFC features Baltimore and New England, while the NFC features New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle. Tow of those 10-2 teams square off Sunday when the 49ers take on the Saints in the Superdome. The Saints have already clinched a postseason berth and wrapped up a division title but they have the inside track on the top seed in the NFC playoffs. The Saints have won three straight and NINE of 10, as they welcome the 49ers to New Orleans. The 49ers opened 8-0 but have lost two of four, both on last-second FGs, to fall into a tie with Seattle atop the NFC West, although the Seahawks own the tiebreaker.

San Francisco's defense is allowing a league-low of 250.9 YPG and ranks second in points allowed at 15.3 PPG. It held up well against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week, allowing just 20 points but still lost. I've always been somewhat skeptical of QB Jimmy Garoppolo but he's had a very good season, completing 69.0% for 2,896 yards with 21 TDs and 10 INTs (he's registered a QB rating of at least 110.2 in five of his last six games). He's done all this with a mediocre group of WRs, although TE Kittle (54 catches) is a "big time" performer. The running game averages 148.0 YPG, which ranks second-best to only Baltimore (Ravens are averaging a 'monster' 207.8 YPG). Keeping its RBs healthy as been a major issue, as Breida, Mostert and Coleman have all been in and out of the lineup with nagging injuries.

This has been some impressive season for the Saints, as when Brees missed five games due to a thumb injury, Bridgewater stepped in to go 5-0 as starter. Brees is back and while he's not quite the "Brees of old," he's completing 73.8% with 12 TDs and just four INTs (104.4 QB rating). WR Thomas has 110 catches and has been the "go-to" guy for both Brees and Bridgewater. The Saints miss Ingram (now with Baltimore) but in Kamara (587 yards on 4.7 YPA plus 64 catches) and Murray (464 yards on 4.4 YPA) make up a quality RB duo. The New Orleans D has been plenty good enough, allowing 20.7 PPG on 323.4 YPG.

Here's the rub. The 49ers opened 8-0 but in that span, they beat just ONE team with a winning record at the time of the game (Rams were 3-2). They are 2-2 their last four, losing to now 10-2 teams Seattle and Baltimore. The Saints are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS their last 10 and have extra rest and preparation time (played on Thanksgiving), while the 49ers are off a physical road loss to Baltimore. To combat that, instead of flying home after last week's game in Baltimore, the 49ers opted to spend the week in Florida instead to avoid more cross-country flights and another time change (will it help?). It can't hurt but this is an off-surface and different environment for the 49ers playing on carpet inside a dome. In the end, Drew Brees owns a HUGE edge on Jimmy Garoppolo at QB, making the Saints a STRONG play at this price.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET.

The Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys enter this game with identical 6-6 records but while the Bears sit two games out of the sixth and final NFC playoff , the Cowboys actually lead the NFC East by one game and for all intents and purposes, remain in control of their playoff destiny. The Cowboys have seen a 3-0 start to the 2019 season go 'south, as Dallas followed its 3-0 start with an 0-3 skid and after back-to-back wins over NFC East rivals Philadelphia and New York, has lost THREE of four (Cowboys enter on a two-game slide). The Bears opened 3-1 but then lost FOUR in a row. However, Chicago has kept its slim playoff hopes alive by winning THREE of four (more on that, in a little bit).

Dallas was held to just three FGs by the Pats in a four-point Week 12 road loss and then surrendered 23 unanswered points to the Bills in a 26-15 defeat at home on Thanksgiving. Dallas has the No. 1 offense in the NFL at 432.8 YPG, as Dak Prescott has passed for an NFL-best 3,788 yards with 23 TDs, 11 INTs and three rushing TDs. RB Ezekiel Elliott has 990 yards rushing (4.4 YPA and 7 TDs)  plus WR Cooper has 64 catches (15.2 YPC) for 7 TDs. However, Dallas couldn't get in the end zone at New England plus repeatedly came up empty after scoring on the opening drive vs Buffalo. With over 430 YPG of offense, Dallas should be scoring more than 25.8 PPG (ranks 8th). The Dallas D has done a decent job, ranking 8th in both points allowed (19.7) and yards allowed (321.6).

Chicago's defense has again been strong in 2019, as the Bears are allowing just 17.3 PPG (4th) on 319.7 YPG (7th). However, the Trubisky-led offense has averaged only 17.7 PPG (27th) on 281.8 YPG (29th). However, Trubisky got untracked against on Thanksgiving by throwing for a season-high 338 yards to go with three scores (he directed a winning 90-yard  drive at Detroit). WR Anthony Miller had a breakout game with a career-high nine catches for 140 yards while fellow WR Allen Robinson added eight receptions for 86 yards and a score. Rookie RB David Montgomery had 75 yards rushing on only 16 carries, after he was limited to 40 yards or less in FIVE of his previous seven contests (he's Chicago's leading rusher at 594 yards, averaging 3.5 YPA for a  team averaging only 79.3 YPG on the ground)

Are we really seeing a Trubisky turnaround? He is 94 of 145 for 979 yards, eight TDs, four INTs and a 91.1 rating in the past four games. However, the three wins have come against last-place teams like the Lions (twice) and the Giants (Detroit & New York are a combined  5-18-1). Crunching the numbers further, we find that Tubisky has a 124.4 QB rating in two games against the Lions this season and a passer rating of  72.1 versus the rest of  the league! I'm sure no fan of Dallas or beleaguered head coach Jason Garrett but while the Coboys haven't done too well beating good teams, they have been able to get past the beatable ones (save the Jets). "Talk is cheap right? We've talked a lot," QB Prescott said. "We've talked a bunch and got ourselves right to where we are. In a moment like this I say hell with the talking and I'm going to do more. I'm going to work harder and if you're a young guy looking for somebody to figure it out, how to do it, yeah, look at me and some of these other guys because that's exactly what we're doing -- putting our head down focusing and doubling down on ourselves." Dak CAN and WILL be able to beat the Bears and Trubisky.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Week 13 Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:15 ET.

The Saints moved to 10-2 with a Thanksgiving win in Atlanta and the NFC's current No. 1 seed (the 49ers at 10-1) have a real test at 9-2 Baltimore on Sunday (Ravens have won SEVEN in a row). Green Bay, which is tied with Minnesota  atop the NFC North at 8-3, will be at the struggling 2-9 Giants on Sunday, so it's clear that this MNF contest between the 8-3 Vikings and 9-2 Seahawks (one game back of San Francisco in the NFC West, pending Sunday's outcome) at CenturyLink Field has a 'ton' of playoff seeding implications. Minnesota enters this contest off a bye, having won SIX of seven prior to getting a week off. The Seahawks are coming off a 17-9 win at Philly last Sunday (Seattle is 6-0 on the road in 2019) and have won four in a row  since getting ambushed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens at home in Week 7. Will this game come down to which QB plays best? Minnesota's Kirk Cousins has upped the ante with his recent play, strengthening his league-best 114.8 passer rating by throwing for 18 touchdowns against one interception in his last seven games. Seattle's Russell Wilson trails his former Big Ten adversary in passer rating (112.1) but last Sunday he became the first QB in NFL history to begin his career with EIGHT straight winning seasons following the Seahawks' 17-9 victory in Philadelphia (Seattle's NINTH win of 2019).

The oft-criticized Cousins is completing 70.6% of his passes for 2,756 yards with 21 TDs and only three INTs. He's supported by outstanding RB Dalvin Cook, who has run for 1,017 yards on 4.8 YPA with 11 TDs (Cook also has 45 catches for 455 yards). There were mid-season complaints about Minnesota NOT using its WRs enough but that seems to have settled down. Diggs has 46 catches on 19.1 YPC with five TDs and Thielen, despite missing three games, has 27 catches (14.5 YPC and six TDs). Thielen has had hamstring issues but he's listed as probable. The Minnesota defense has not gotten much 'pub' but its allowing just 18.6 PPG (6th-best).

MVP 'talk' seems to have come down to Baltimore's Jackson and Seattle's Wilson. Wilson is completing 67.3 % for 2,413 yards with 24 TDs and only three INTs. He's always a threat to make plays with his feet and has regularly made the key play when Seattle's needed it most. Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season (160.0 YPG) but while the Seahawks have not run the ball that well in 2019, they do rank 7th with 136.9 YPG. RB Chris Carson ran for 1,151 yards in 2018(14 games) but with 879 yards (on 4.2 YPA and 4 TDs) through 11 games in 2019, is on pace for almost 1,300 yards. Then again, maybe not. Last week against the Eagles, Rashaad Penny was the star, rushing for a career-high 129 yards and a clinching 58-yard TD in the fourth quarter. Carson was relegated to a lesser role, getting only eight carries to Penny's 14 (we'll see). Tyler Lockett (63 catches / 13.2 YPC / 6 TDs) is Wilson's favorite target but Ole Miss rookie Metcalf owns a team-best 16.6 YPC average on 38 catches with 5 TDs. Defensively, the "Legion of Boom" days are past , as Seattle allows 23.9 PPG (21st) on 370.2 YPG (24th). That said, Seattle IS, 9-2!

I noted that Seattle is 6-0 on the road, so doing the math reveals that the Seahawks are just 3-2 at home. However,  Wilson has eviscerated the competition at home with 14 TD passes (only one INT in 177 attempts) plus has added  two more TDs on the ground in just five games. I wondered at the top, will this game be won by the better QB? My bet says yes and that means I'm 'on' Wilson and the Seahawks. How does on ignore the following. Wilson has a history of shining in prime-time games, while Cousins is 0-7 SU on Monday night. What's more, the Vikings are 1-9-1 ATS the past 11 times they have been on the road against an opponent which owns a winning  record. This marks Seattle's first home game in four weeks (two road games sandwiched around a bye week) and it means SOOO much!  One last thing. Seattle sports a 28-5-1 record (.838) in prime-time regular-season games with Carroll at the helm, including 18-2 at home.

Monday update: The 49ers did lose at Baltimore and a Seattle win now means the Seahawks would move into a tie atop the NFC West with San Francisco. A Seattle win also means the Seahawks, 49ers and Saints would all be 10-2, with San Francisco and New Orleans meeting in Week 14, meaning ONE would have to lose for the third time this season. GREAT opportunity here for Seattle and I expect them to get that "W!" 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET.

The Pats were dominated at Baltimore 37-20 in a Week 9 SNF contest but that's the LONE blemish on the defending champs 2019 resume. The Pats survived a pair of "close call's' after the loss at Baltimore, winning 17-10 at Philly and last Sunday at home against the Cowboys, 13-9. That victory set an NFL mark, as the Pats have now won at least 10 games in 17consecutive seasons. New England is tied with San Francisco (both at 10-1) for the NFL's best overall record and own a slim one-game lead over the 9-2 Ravens, in a race for the AFC's No. 1 seed. Knowing that Baltimore holds the tie-breaker due to that Week 9 win, could keep New England focused all the way until Week 17.

The 7-4 Houston Texans welcome the Pats to NRG Staium with a one-game lead over the Cols and Titans (both 6-5) in the AFC South. Tennessee is at Indianapolis at 1:00 on Sunday, so by the time Houston takes the field against the Pats, the Texans will know which team is 'lurking' at 7-5 and rooting for a New England win. Texans head coach Bill O'Brien worked in New England under Bill Belichick from 2007-11, before leaving to take over at Penn State and then here in the NFL with Houston. The Texans have always had a tough time against New England and are 1-8 in the series (0-4 under O'Brien), with their only win coming back on Jan. 3, 2010.

Defense continues to carry New England, which scored just a combined 30 points in back-to-back victories over Philadelphia and Dallas. The playing conditions were miserable in New England last Sunday and Tom Brady completed a season-worst 45.9 percent of his passes. It didn't help that he had two rookies as WRs, although Julian Edelman had eight catches for 93 yards (he has 76 catches on the season). Brady's struggled all season, posting mediocre numbers for him (62.2% for 2,942 yards with just 15 TDs, five INTs and  a QB rating of 88.5). The Pats have rarely featured a strong running game but this year's group is averaging just 91.9 YPG (23rd), with leading rusher Michel gaining a modest 600 yards on a poor 3.4 YPA. However, while the Pats rank just 18th in total offense (352.8 YPG), they are scoring 27.3 PPG (5th-best). The defense held Dallas with a TD last Sunday and is allowing a league-low 10.6 PPG on 256.4 YPG (2nd).

There are times that Houston DeShaun Watson gets compared to Jackson and/or Wilson but too often, he throws in a 'clunker.' He's completing 69.0%  for 2,899 yards with 20 TDs and seven INTs ( QB rating) plus has 301 yards rushing with five TDs. RB Carlos Hyde has 'saved' the running game (Lamar Smith was lost for the year at the end of the preseason schedule), as he's run for 836 yards on 4.8 YPA. Watson got WR Will Fuller back at last week (had missed more than a month with a hamstring injury) and he had seven receptions for 140 yards (has 41 catches in eight games).  DeAndre Hopkins caught two TDs in Houston's 20-17 win over Indy and has 81 on the season with six TDs. However, while Houston ranks 7th in total offense (to New England's 18th), the Texans are scoring a more modest 24.1 PPG (a FG less than the Pats). Houston's D comes nowhere near matching New England's, allowing 22.6 PPG (12 points more than the Pats) to rank 17th, while allowing 367.3 YPG (over 100 YPG more) to rank 20th.

Here's the bottom line. The Pats find ways to win, something the Texans have yet to master (more at the end), especially when playing New England (see above). Brady's NOT having a vintage season but he will likey get WR Phillip Dorsett  back (he was cleared from the league's concussion protocol on Wednesday) and he'll be throwing against a Houston pass D allowing 66.0% completions with just five INTs (in 429 attempts against 22 TDs (opposing QB rating of 101.0). In comparison, Watson faces a New England pass D allowing 53.9% completions, while allowing just four TD passes against 20 INTs (opposing QB rating of 50.5!). The Pats have the league's best turnover ratio (plus-19), EIGHT better than any team. Getting back to Houston, the Texans are 2-9 ATS (just 18.2%ATS) when playing an opponent with a better than .500 record since the start of the 2018 season. Safe to say the Pats are a "winning team!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland (SI's "cover team") in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. Sometimes, "change is good." After averaging 16.3 PPG with Mariota under center, the Titans have won FOUR of five with Ryan Tannehill taking over at QB (more in a bit). Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, the Colts, like the Titans, are 6-5. Both are one game behind the 7-4 Texans, who host the 10-1 Pats in a SNF contest in Week 13. Both Tennessee and Indianapolis will be rooting for New England but both also know, regardless of the result of that contest, the loser of this game will see its division hopes take a big hit, likely throwing them into crowded wild-card field.

The Titans have surged into the playoff picture by scoring 77 points in home victories over Kansas City and Jacksonville, sandwiched around their Week 11 bye The Titans' turnaround has been led by Tannehill, who has thrown 10 TDs against just three INTs in the team's 4-1 run, posting QB ratings between 109.8 and 155.8 in the four wins. He was 14 of 18 for 259 yards with two TDs and zero INTs in the team's 42-20 win over the Jags, posting a near-perfect QB rating of 155.8 ( is perfect). Aiding and abetting Tanehill in the team's last two wins has been RB Henry, who now has 991 yards on the season (4.8 YPA / 10TDs / plus two receiving TDs), after running for 347 yards (8.3 YPA and 4 TDs) in those home wins over KC and Jax. Tennessee's defense has had another solid year, allowing 19.7 PPG (10th), after allowing 18.9 PPG ( 3rd) in 2018.

One thing is for sure, Indy head coach Frank Reich, has demonstrated he can cast aside the outside 'noise.' The Colts started 1-5 last season (his rookie year) and were left for 'dead.' However, the Colts rallied to win EIGHT of nine and clinch a wild card berth. Entering 2019, Andrew Luck's retirement during the preseason left almost all discounting Indy's ability to rebound. Instead, Jacoby Brissett took over and led the Colts to a 5-2 mark. However, there IS concern, as the Colts have lost THREE of their last four. The Colts will play their second straight game without RB Marlon Mack (broken right hand), who has 862 rushing yards on the season. However, Jonathan Williams got his first 100-yard game after the injured Mack left the Jacksonville game 116 yards on just 13 carries) and followed that with a second 100-yard game last Thursday at Houston (104 yards on 26 carries), his first career start. Brissett did NOT play well in Indy's 20-17 loss at Houston in Week 12 (16 of 25 for 129 yards without a TD) but on the season, he's completing 64.6% with a 15-4 ratio and a QB rating of 95.7.

Brissett threw three TD passes in Indy's 19-17 Week 2 win at Tennessee. The Titans  now look for revenge at Lucas Oil Stadium but there's one small problem. The Colts are 10-1 SU & 9-1-1 ATS  (90%) the last 11 times hosting the Titans. What's more, the Colts are also 9-1 ATS (again, 90%) the last 10 times playing against an opponent with a winning record since the start of the 2018 season.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind 2nd-year QB Baker Mayfield. Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Cleveland would go 2-6 through the season's first eight games, as QB Mayfield, who energized the Cleveland fan base during his rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), regressed in Year 2. He completed only 58.7 percent with 7 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 71.3 in the team's first eight games. However, the Browns were able to snap a four game losing strek in Week 10 (19-16 ay home over the Bills0 and have followed with two more home wins, 21-7 over the Steelers and 41-24 over the Dolphins. The Steelers lost starting QB Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2 but after a 1-4 start, surged  into playoff contention by winning FOUR of their next five. Better-than-expected QB play from Mason Rudolph and improved defensive play led the way.  However, the Steelers lost 21-7 at Cleveland in Week 11 (you may just have heard about "the brawl") and followed with a less-than-impressive 16-10 victory at the winless Bengals in Week 12. As the team's get set for  a quick "rematch," the Browns are 5-6 and the Steelers 6-5. both teams are both fighting for a wild-card spot and the winner of Sunday's game will have the upper hand in a tight race that features five teams within ONE game of the No. 6 slot in the AFC.

In Cleveland's three-game winning streak, Mayfield has seven TDs and just one INT and is coming off his best game of the season last Sunday, completing 70.6% for 327 yards with three TDs and just one INT for a 118.1 QB rating. He has excellent skill players in RB Chubb (1,117 yards / 5.0 YPA / 7 TDs / 30 catches) plus WRs Landry (59 catches / 14.3 YPC / 5 TDs) and OBJ (54 catches / 14.4 / 2 TDs). However, the Browns' D is no better than average, allowing 22.9 PPG (18th) on 338.5 YPG (14th).

Mason Rudolph had not exactly been 'filling Big Ben's shoes" but he was playing well enough for Pittsburgh to win. However, he played poorly in that Thursday night loss in Cleveland (four INTs and a QB rating of 36.3) and was just 8-of-16 for 85 yards and a interception before being replaced against the Bengals. Rookie QB Devlin "Duck" Hodges followed Rudolph and was 5 of 11 for 118 yards with a TD and zero INTs. Rudolph will be on the sidelines for Sunday's game, as here's what Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin said. "We met as a staff, we decided that we're going to start Duck this week," he told reporters. "Really, the decision is clear for us. ... I thought he provided us a spark in-game. I'm hopeful that he's capable of continuing to provide that spark as we step into this stadium." Hodges was effective but hardly overwhelming in a 24-17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers back on Oct 13 while filling in for an injured Rudolph. Still, he's won over teammates with his confidence and won over his coaches by avoiding the kind of killer mistakes that have dogged Rudolph recently.

Yes, the Browns have won THREE in a row (I had  them in their Week 11 win over the Steelers) but I'm not buying into Cleveland's hope of making the playoffs. Cleveland's been a 'dog' franchise for quite some time now and now that there's a 'sliver of hope,' I expect the Browns to return to "being the Browns." It's a wide-open AFC wild-card race but through all its ups-and-downs in 2019, Pittsburgh currently holds the last spot. This is a HUGE rivalry and expect an electrified atmosphere Sunday at Heinz Field, on the heels of "the brawl." The Browns have been the 'betting choice," as Pittsburgh opened a three-point favorite but now it's Cleveland in the role of a road favorite in Pittsburgh, where the Browns haven't won since 2003 (you read that right!). As bonus, it's Mike Tomlin on the sidelines over a seemingly clueless Freddie Kitchens. It's 'Duck Season', not 'Wabbit Season' today in Pittsburgh.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Thanksgiving Roast is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.

The New Orleans Saints are 9-2 and own a four-game lead in the NFC South. However, the Saints still have much to paly for, as they are battling the 10-1 49ers and 9-2 Seahawks for the NFC's No. 1 seed (note: 8-3 Green Bay and Minnesota lurk). New Orleans have survived an injury to its future Hallof Fame QB, as Teddy Bridgewater stepped in and the team never 'blinked.' Now, Brees is back as the Saints enter their playoff 'push.' As for the Falcons, doesn't it seem like their Super Bowl appearance (2016 season) was more like 10 years ago? Atlanta 'limps' into this Thanksgiving night game 3-8, including 1-4 at home. Thursday night's game is a rematch of a Week 10 contest in New Orleans. The Saints were riding a six-game winning streak when they were blindsided by the visiting Falcons, 26-9. It marked the first time New Orleans failed to score a TD at home with Brees operating the offense since he came to the Saints in 2006.

The Saints are in command in the NFC South but the team's defense is trending in the wrong direction. New Orleans had  held FIVE straight opponents to fewer than 260 total yards but the Saints have allowed an average of 334.0 YPG over their last three games, with the 351 total yards they surrendered to the Panthers last week marking their highest total since Week 3. Drew Brees and the offense took a one-game 'hiatus' in the above-mentioned loss to the Falcons but put up 418 total yards last week as Brees threw three TD passes for the second straight game (Saints have scored 34 points in back-to-back games after scoring NINE in that loss to the Falcons). Brees is completing 75.7% of his passes and while Ingram is in Baltimore these days, RBs Kamara (526 rushing yards on 4.6 YPA plus 60 catches) and Murray (462 yards on 4.5 YPA) give him enough 'cover.' On the season, New Orleans' D is allowing 20.9 PPG (13th) on 321.3 YPG (10th).

Matt Ryan passed for 300-plus yards in each of Atlanta's first six game but the Falcons won just ONE of the six. He's averaged a more modest 230.8 YPG passing the last four contests, with Atlanta going 2-2. Is passing less 'the ticket.' Not really, as the Falcons have the second-worst running game in the NFL, averaging 72.9 YPG on the ground (3.5 YPA). Atlanta's 26-9 shocker of the Saints in New Orleans was followed by a 29-3 win at Carolina but anything idea that Atlanta had 'righted the ship,' came crashing down in last Sunday's 35-22 home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons surrendered 446 total yards and had a hard time getting the run game going with 57 rushing yards (note: TB entered that game at 2-8 ATS, the worst pointspread record of an NFL team).

Atlanta's upset win at New Orleans in Week 10 was one of NFL 2019's most improbable wins (sacked Brees SIX times) but forewarned is forearmed. The Saints are 4-0 SU & ATS on the road this season and come into this contest an NFL-best 20-8-1 ATS (71.4%) in road games since 2016. Atlanta was once an excellent home team but no more. The Falcons beat Philly 24-20 at home in Week 2 but they have since lost FOUR in a row at home, allowing 30.8 PPG. "Matty Ice" (what a fraudulent nick-name) gets out-dueled by Brees in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET.

All the NFL's top teams won on Sunday, as the 49ers and Pats moved to 10-1, while the Seahawks and Saints (just barely) moved to 9-2. Monday night, the 8-2 Baltimore Ravens will bring their six-game winning streak (NFL's longest current winning streak) to LA in an effort to "Keep up with the Joneses!" Baltimore has DOMINATED in its last four victories, winning 30-16, 37-20, 49-13 and 41-7, as QB Lamar Jackson has catapulted himself into the top-tier of MVP candidates (more later). The Rams welcome the Ravens to the LA Coliseum with a 6-4 record. They are badly in need of a win, as they are 'stuck' in the same division as the 10-1 49ers and 9-2 Seahawks. The Rams won the NFC West in both 2017 and 2018 (on their way to a Super Bowl berth) but they haven't looked like the same team here in 2019.

Jackson has "the whole league talking about" his recent efforts. He ripped apart the NFL's stingiest defense with his arm and legs, accounting for three TDs and directing a dominant running game in a 37-20 victory on SNF over the Pats in Week 9. He's coming off a four-TD performance in Baltimore's 41-7 rout of Houston last Sunday, becoming the first NFL quarterback to produce at least 2,000 yards passing (2,258 with a 19-5 ratio) and 700 yards rushing (781 on 6.7 YPA with six TDs) through the first 10 games of a season. RB Mark Ingram (667 yards on 4.9 YPA and a team-high eight rushing TDs) joins Jackson to give Baltimore the NFL's best rushing attack (203.1 YPG on 5.7 YPA). The Baltimore D is not the vintage defense of the 'Ray Lewis era" but allowing 19.6 PPG works just fine when the offense is averaging an NFL-high 34.1 PPG!

The Rams were the NFC's highest scoring team in 2018, averaging 32.9 PPG (only KC scored more in the AFC). However, the Rams enter Monday night  having failed to score at least 20 points in back-to-back games for the first time under head coach Sean McVay. After following his breakout year of 2017 (28-7 ratio with a 100.5 QB rating), Jared Goff threw 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (101.0 rating) in leading the Rams into the Super Bowl in 2018. However, through 10 games this season, he's got an 11-10 ratio and a QB rating of 82.1. His production is off due to nagging injuries to WRs Woods (86 catches in 2018) and Cooks (89 catches), who have just 45 (in nine games) and 27 (in eight games), this season. It also hasn't helped that RB Gurley (525 yards with 7 TDs and 18 catches for one TD) is FAR from the player he  was in 2018 (1,251 yards on 4.9 YPA and 17 TDs / 59 catches for 4 TDs). The good news is, both Robert Woods (personal) and Brandin Cooks (concussion) are expected back for this contest. LA's defense has improved this season (allowed 24.0 PPG in 2018 but ranks 11th in allowing 19.6 PPG in 2019) and DT Aaron Donald was named the NFC Defensive Player of the Week after registering two sacks, four QB hits and a pass deflection in the Rams' 17-7 victory over Chicago last Sunday night.

Maybe I'm 'spitting into the wind' here by going against the red-hot Ravens but I will take the home dog Rams. This isn't your father's NFC West (remember 2010 when Seattle won the division with a 7-9 record?). The Rams' only path into the 2019 postseason is via the wild card. I'm not sure the Rams. chances are very good there either but those chances will all but disapear with a loss here. As Winston Churchill once opined, "If not now, when? If not us, who?" That's LA's mentality coming into this contest and Monday night home dogs have always held a special place with long-time handicappers/bettors.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET.

The 8-2 Green Bay Packers visit the 9-1 San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night, with the Packers atop the NFC North and the 49ers leading the NFC West. However, both teams face stiff challenges from division rivals. The Packers look over their shoulder and see the 8-3 Vikings lurking, while the 49ers have the 8-2 Seahawks right on their coattails. This primetime game has major homefield advantage and wild-card positioning at stake. The Packers are coming off a Week 11 bye but are sure to remember their last trip to the West Coast, a 26-11 Week 9 loss at the LA Chargers, as a four-point road favorite. As for the 49ers, they welcome the Packers to Lev's Stadium off three straight games against NFC West rivals, beating Arizona twice, 28-25 and 36-26, sandwiched around a 27-24 loss in OT to the Seahawks (MNF classic).

Aaron Rodgers is completing 64.8% for 2,718 yards (he owns two, 400-yard passing games) with a superb ratio of 17 TD passes against only two INTs. Rodgers no longer enjoys an elite receiving corps but RB Aaron Jones has had a 'breakout year." He is tied for the NFL lead with 14 TDs (11 rushing, three receiving) and has 943 scrimmage yards (589 rushing, 354 receiving). WR Davant Adams (39 catches in six games) is still dealing with a toe injury but he's had a week off and has played in Green Bay's last two games, catching SEVEN balls in each contest. The Green Bay defense ranks 28th in yards allowed (384.7 per) but 14th in points allowed, at a more modest 20.5 PPG. The key being, the  team's plus-9 turnover margin (16 takeaways against just seven giveaways).

San Francisco's lone blemish in 2019 has been that MNF loss to Seattle, a game the 49ers could have easily won. San Francisco's offense has been led by the steady, if unspectacular play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (68.8% for 2,478 yards with 18 TDs and 10 INTs), plus the NFL's second-ranked rushing attack (149.0 YPG). The good news is that star TE George Kittle (46 receptions, 541 yards) returned to practice Thursday and the 49ers are hopeful he will available after missing the past two games with knee and ankle injuries. The San Francisco offense is not viewed as prolific but it does rank second in scoring at 29.5 PPG. San Francisco's D ranks second to only New England's in points allowed (15.5 PPG) and yards allowed (253.0 YPG). The 49ers lead the NFL with 39 sacks, as DEs Arik Armstead (eight) and Nick Bosa (seven) lead the charge.

Let me "take apart" what I just noted about the 49ers. I've always maintained that Garoppolo's gaudy W-L record as a starting QB (17-3, including 2-0 with the Pats) conceals the fact that he's not much better than an average QB. Note that EIGHT of his 18 TD passes have come in two games against the Cardinals (over a three-game span), who rank 32nd in passing yards allowed in 2019. Now, let's take a closer look at that SF running game over that recent three-game span. The Niners relied heavily on their running game in averaging 181.1 YPG through the first seven contests but with nagging injuries to both Breida and Mostert, that aspect of the offense has gone missing the past three weeks. San Francisco has been held to 74.0 YPG (third-worst in the NFL during that span), averaging 2.9 YPA. Moving on to San Francisco's D, the 49ers suffered a big loss when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle in Week 9. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense. San Francisco has allowed 25, 27 and 26 points its last three contests, beginning with the game in which Alexander got hurt in.

This game against the Packers begins a grueling three-game stretch for the Niners. San Francisco follows this with two more against teams currently in first place with trips to Baltimore (8-2) and New Orleans (8-2). If the Ravens and Saints don't lose before facing San Francisco, the 49ers will be the first team in the Super Bowl era to play three consecutive games this late in the season against teams with a winning percentage of at least .800, according to ESPN. The 49ers' season could turn 'sour,' VERY quickly. 'Forgiving' the Packers their Week 9 loss at the Chargers (it was a non-conference road game, which does not factor into tie-breakers in the NFC standings), the Packers have won 10-3 at Chicago, 34-24 at Dallas (led 28-0) and 31-24 at KC. Any points here are a bonus, as I expect the Packers to win, outright!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.

The Patriots were held to 17 points at Philadelphia last Sunday but despite Tom Brady's admitted "frustration" with his team's offense, the Patriots won 17-10 and at 9-1, own the best record in the AFC. The win helped New England's opponent this Sunday, as the Eagles fell to 5-5, meaning that the Cowboys' 35-27 win at Detroit allowed 6-4 Dallqa to assume sole possession of first place in the NFC East.As Brady put it, "I came out of the womb as a Niner fan, so I've really not liked the Cowboys ever since." It's been more than 20 years since "the triplets" of Aikman, Irvin and Smith helped propel the Cowboys to their most recent Super Bowl win and since he entered the league in 2000, Brady has taken out his childhood frustrations on them, winning each of his four meetings against them as the Patriots' starting QB.

Dallas ranks first in the league averaging 446.0 YPG and is averaging 28.6 PPG (4th). QB Dak Prescott has been terrific, completing 67.7% for 3,221 yards (Dallas is No. 1 in passing yards) with 21 TDs and nine INTs, while adding three rushing TDs. WR Amari Cooper (56 catches / 15.8 YPC / 7 TDs) has been very good plus fellow WRs Gallup (42 / 16.1 YPC) and Cobb (35 catches / 14.1 YPC), not to mention ageless TE Whitten (41 catches), provide Prescott with plenty of options. RB Elliott has 833 yards (4.3 YPA and 7 TDs). Defensively, Dallas ranks 7th in both points allowed (19.7 per) and total D (322.1 YPG).

Brady is having a sub-par season by his standards (63.7% with 14 TDs and 5 INTs for a 90.1 QB rating) and a mediocre receiving corps plus a poor running game (Pats average just 91.0 YPG to rank 24th), sure don't make his job easier. Leading rusher Michel has a modest 515 yards and is averaging only 3.3 YPA. However, somehow, the Pats rank third in the NFL by averaging 28.7 PPG. Leading the way all season has been New England's defense, which ranks 1st in points allowed (10.8 PPG) and 1st in total D (249.9 YPG). The Patriots have given up only NINE total TDs on defense in 2019, FOUR of which came in their 37-20 loss at Baltimore in Week 9. New England has yet to allow a red-zone TD at home this season and own an NFL-best 28 takeaways (its 37 sacks rank third).

Here's the key. Just how good are the Cowboys? The team's six wins have come over the Giants (two), Redskins, Dolphins, Eagles and Lions. NONE of those teams currently own a winning record. The Eagles are 5-5 but the Lions are 3-6-1, the Giants and Dolphins are both 2-8 plus the Redskins are 1-9. Are you kidding me? The four losses have come against the 8-2 Packers and Saints, the 7-3 Vikings and even the 3-7 Jets. New England has won 17 in a row at home and a victory Sunday would give them 17 straight 10-win seasons, breaking an NFL record shared with San Francisco. More notably, the Pats enter this game on a 16-4 ATS run at Gillette Stadium (that's 80%!).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

It would hardly be a stretch to say that the 7-3 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 3-7 Denver Broncos have shown NO improvement from the 5-11 (2017) and 6-10 (2018) seasons that got Van Joseph fired. The Bills are in prime position to make a real run at an AFC wild card spot but they are facing a tough schedule down the stretch (more later). As for Denver, apologists say the 3-7 Broncos could be 7-3 with luck, as four of the team’s losses have been by a combined 10 points. However, as Bill Parcells once famously said, "You are who you record says you are!"

The Broncos looked to be on the verge of a second straight victory last week but then squandering a 20-point lead in a 27-23 loss at Minnesota. WR Courtland Sutton had five catches for 113 yards and added a 38-yard completion.Sutton is working with backup quarterback Brandon Allen (now Denver's starter), who is completing just 49.2 percent of his passes with three TDs and one interception in two starts.The now injured Flacco was a a bust and while RBs Lindsay (651 yards / 4.9 YPA / 6 TDs) and Freeman (405 yards / 4.0 YPA) are both quality backs, Denver ranks just 16th with 113.1 YPG on the ground. Through 10 games, Denver has averaged only 17.2 PPG (27th) on 321.6 YPG (25th). First-year head coach Vic Fangio  was known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Broncos' D is allowing 19.7 PPG (8th) on 310.8 YPG (4th).

Josh Allen is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (23) and 12 rushing TDs (15) in his first two seasons (still has six games remaining in 2019). Allen is completing 60.3% for 2,175 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs, while rushing for 331 yards and seven TDs. He was named the AFC's offensive Player of the Week after throwing for 256 yards and three TDs, as well as adding 56 yards and a rushing TD in last week's 37-20 drubbing of the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo's running game is averaging 128.7 YPG (8th) but Buffalo is only scoring 21.1 PPG (20th). However, its defense ranks 3rd in both points allowed (17.0 per) and total D (304.1 YPG).

The criticism of Buffalo is that its seven wins have come against teams entering Week 12 with a combined record of 15-55. The next five opponents are 31-19, and include three division leaders; Dallas (6-4), Baltimore (8-2) and New England (9-1). Fair enough but don't the 3-7 Broncos fall right into Buffalo's 'wheelhouse' of losing teams? Inept quarterbacking gets most of the attention but there are reports of internal strife caused by gruff first-year head coach Vic Fangio. Team Chemistry can’t be too good, after the Broncos ended a consecutive game streak of 99 contests in which a team ahead by at least 20 points at the half, didn't win! VERY fair price on the Bills in this one. Denver is 1-4 SU on the road in 2019 (lone win at the Chargers, who have NO home field edge), extending the team's road woes to 5-16 SU the last two-plus seasons.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Battle 4 First (AFC South) is on the Hou Texans at 8:20 ET.

Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, he's led the Colts to a 6-4 start and Indy will visit Houston for this Week 12 matchup tied with the 6-4 Texans atop the AFC South. Indianapolis rebounded from a stunning home loss to lowly Miami in Week 10 by rolling up a season-high point total in last Sunday's 33-13 win over the Jaguars. As for Houston, the Texans' D was 'carved up' by Lamar Jackson and Co. in last week's 41-7 shellacking at Baltimore, ending a two-game winning streak.

Brissett did not play in Indy's 16-12 home loss to Miami and was hardly needed in Sunday's win, as the Colts ran for a season-high 264 yards (highest total since 2004!) and the defense held the Jags to just 13 points (the third time in four weeks the Colts have limited an opponent to 16 points or less). Brissett threw for just 148 yards (one TD / one INT) against the Jags but on the season is completing 64.6% with 15 TDs and just four INTs for a 97.6 QB rating. The Colts rank 4th in rushing (141.1 YPG) but the bad news is RB Marlon Mack (862 YR / 4.5 YPA) fractured his hand during the game and is out indefinitely. Yes Jonathan Williams stepped in and gained 116 on 13 carries, but he entered the contest with just ONE rushing yard on the season. Wideout T.Y. Hilton, who has torched the Texans throughout his career, is hopeful of returning after sitting out three games due to a calf strain but he's still listed as questionable. On the season, Indy's D is allowing 20.6 PPG (15th) on 325.6 YPG (11th).

There are times Deshaun Watson looks the equal of Lamar Jackson (even Russell Wilson) and he threw for five TDs and zero INTs in back-to-back wins over Oakland and Jacksonville in Weeks 8 and 9. However, he put forth a dismal effort in Baltimore, absorbing a season high-tying six sacks, throwing for only 169 yards without a TD plus throwing one INT and losing one fumble. RB Carlos Hyde has been a solid addition to the backfield with 769 yards (4.9 YPA / 4 TDs) for a rushing game ranking just barely behind Indy at 140.7 YPG (5th). WR DeAndre Hopkins is second in the NFL with 75 receptions and enters the contest with at least seven catches in his last SIX games. Houston's defense is not the same without J.J. Watt and checks in allowing 23.2 PPG (19th) on 374.4 YPG (25th).

The Colts beat the the Texans back in Week 7 at home, 30-23. Brissett had a season-high four TD passes while throwing for 326 yards. It marked Indy's THIRD straight win over Houston, winning a Week 14 game in Houston 24-21 and then a wild card game 21-7 (also in Houston) last season. However, with Mack out and TY Hilton still FAR less than 100% (even if he plays), I'm going side with the Texans to bounce back off last Sunday's humiliating loss at Baltimore. Watson has thrown eight TD passes and zero INTs in his last two home games and has FIVE games this season with QB ratings over 100.0 (including a perfect 158.3 rating in a Week 5 win over the Falcons). The winner of the AFC South advances to the postseason but there's hardly a guarantee that the second-place finisher will earn a wild card berth in a VERY crowed field. I'll echo the sentiments of Texans linebacker Zach Cunningham who said, "It's definitely good that we've got that quick turnaround. You really have no choice but to look on to the next game." Playing the home team on Thursday nights during the second half of the season has proven to be a MONEY-MAKING proposition, as home teams have gone 20-5-3 ATS (that's 80%) since 2016 from Week 8 until the end of the season.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Rout is on the KC Chiefs at 8:15 ET.

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

The Los Angeles Rams won the NFC West for the second straight year in 2018 and went on to play New England in the Super Bowl. The Chicago Bears rode the NFL's best defense (in terms of points allowed) in 2018 to a 12-4 record and an NFC North title. Both teams entered 2019 with expectations that they would defend their respective division titles. However, as the Bears come to LA Memorial Coliseum to take on the Rams in Week 11, they sit at 4-5 in their division, well behind 8-2 Green Bay and 7-3 Minnesota. As for the 5-4 Rams, they are looking up at 8-1 San Francisco and 8-2 Seattle in the NFC West.

There is NOTHING wrong with Chicago's defense, as the Bears are allowing 17.4 PPG (4th), which is actually slightly better than the team's NFL-leading 17.7 average in 2018. However, Chicago's QB play has generally stunk (that's a highly technical NFL insider term!) and its running game also sucks (another highly sophisticated one). Trubisky is coming off a three-TD game in last week's 20-13 win over Detroit (one which snapped a four-game losing streak) but he has just eight TD passes in his eight games (he's missed two due to injury). A closer look reveals he has not thrown a TD pass in FIVE of his eight starts in 2019, accounting for his eight TD throws in last week's game with Detroit, a two-TD effort in a Week 7 loss at New Orleans and a three-TD game in the team's MNF Week 3 win at Washington. As for the running game, the Bears are averaging 80.6 YPG (28th) on a woeful 3.5 YPA. What's more, just as rookie David Montgomery appeared to have found his stride by rolling up 235 yards and three TDs over his last three games, after totaling 231 and two TDs in his previous six, an ankle injury in practice is raising doubts about his availability for this contest. If Monty doesn't play, here's the situation. No other Chicago player has as much as 100 rushing yards on the season.

Sean McVay has been labeled a "boy genius" for leading the Rams to back-to-back division crowns in his first two seasons at the helm, which included a Super Bowl appearance in just his second season. However, the Rams' once-high octane offense has gone missing since prior to last season's Super Bowl appearance, with QB Jared Goff taking large steps backward behind an offensive line that has been ravaged by injury. McVay himself realizes there's a strong argument to be made that the Bears ended the Rams' two seasons of offensive brilliance with their 15-6 victory at Soldier Field last season in Week 14. LA was 11-1 but Chicago reduced McVay's offense to a shadow of its usual self. RB Todd Gurley produced only 28 yards rushing, Goff went 20 of 44 for 180 yards, and the Rams managed only 214 yards, less than half of their season average. The current Rams' offense continues to be a shadow of its former self, averaging 25.1 PPG (10th) on 375.8 YPF (12th), after an inept performance at Pittsburgh last Sunday in which it scored only THREE of the team's 12 points.

OK, so why am I on the Rams? I go back to those technical terms regarding Trubisky (he stinks) and the state of Chicago's running game (it sucks). Chicago dominated the Rams in that Week 14 contest in Chicago, benefiting from the weather conditions of a chilly, biting night last December. The weather report for Sunday is sunny and in the mid-80s and don't forget that this is a 5:20 local time start (FB conditions will be perfect). This is a make-or-break game for LA, as while it plays Arizona twice in its final six games after this one, it also faces Baltimore, Seattle, Dallas and San Francisco. A loss here and LA can basically 'cancel' the rest of the 2019 season. Expect the Rams to 'show some life' against a VERY mediocre (I'm being nice here) Chicago team. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.

New England entered its Week 9 game at Baltimore (SNF) at 8-0, leading the league in points allowed (7.6), interceptions (19) and sacks (31),. However, its aura of defensive invincibility was punctured in a 37-20 loss, as the Pats had no answer for Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson (BTW...few teams have here in 2019). The Pats also saw Tom Brady get held to just one TD pass in 46 attempts, the FOURTH time in his last six games in which he had had one or none! New England's bye week couldn't have come at a better time but the defending champs return to play against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are tied with Dallas at 5-4 for the NFC East lead (note: as it stands, the loser of that division race will have a tough time earning a wild card berth in the NFC). The Eagles are also coming off a bye week, after getting their season back on track with wins at Buffalo and home to the Bears in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively.

My 8* NFL Week 11 Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

Lamar Jackson has long ago quieted any naysayers, as he continues to make NFL history. His Ravens handed New England its first loss of the 2019 season in Week 9 (convincing 37-20 victory) and then in a possible "let down" situation in Week 10, led Baltimore to its SIXTH straight win. The Ravens CRUSHED the Bengals 49-13 last Sunday, with Jackson completing 15-of-17 passes for 223 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, while adding 67 yards rushing (on just seven carries) with one TD. He posted a perfect QB rating of 158.3, joining Ben Roethlisberger as the only players in NFL history to have two perfect passer ratings in the same season (Big Ben did it in 2007). The 7-2 Ravens will welcome the 6-3 Houston Texans to Baltimore on Sunday. The Texans are coming off their bye week and enter the game winners of FOUR of their last five. Houston leads the AFC South (Indy is 5-4, Tenn 5-5 and Jax 4-5), as it begins a three-game stretch against the Ravens, Colts and Patriots.

My 9* Division Game of the Month (NFC South) is on the Car Panthers at 1:00 ET.

The Carolina Panthers nearly came back against the Packers in the snow of Green Bay last Sunday but fell fell short in a 24-16 loss. The Panthers are now 5-4 and with 8-2 Seattle and 7-3 Minnesota holding down the two NFC wild card spots, Carolina's playoff hopes are in serious jeopardy. Visiting Charlotte on Sunday will be the Atlanta Falcons, who returned from a Week 9 bye to shock New Orleans by beating the Saints 29-6 on the road. The Falcons' win snapped a Atlanta's six-game losing streak but the Falcons remain an afterthought in the 2019 season at 2-7.

Ironically, Atlanta's win in New Orleans was fueled by a heretofore non-existent running game and defense.The Falcons ran for 143 yards and their defense held Brees and the Saints without a TD (just three FGs). Last week notwithstanding, Atlanta still boasts one of the most prolific passing attacks in the league, although in fairness, that has something to do with how much the Falcons have played from behind this season. Atlanta is averaging 300.9 YPG through the air (2nd-best in the NFL), as Matt Ryan is completing 69.4% with 17 TDs and nine INTs. He needs just 254 passing yards to surpass Warren Moon (49,325) and move into the top-10 in NFL history.

Kyle Allen will QB the Panthers the rest of the season, with Cam Newton officially on injured reserve. The second-year QB has been solid (6-2 as a starter, including one start in 2018) and he passed for a career-high 307 yards last week. It sure doesn't hurt that he's supported by one of the NFL’s most versatile players in RB Christian McCaffrey. He has rushed for 989 yards (5.3 YPA / 11 TDs) and caught 48 passes for 396 yards with three TDs. 2nd-year WR Moore has 54 catches (he had 55 as a rookie) plus TE Olson (35 catches) and WR Samuel (34 catches with four TDs), give Allen plenty of options. Defensively, the Panthers are allowing 25.3 PPG (22nd) and have trouble stopping the run (allow 136.7 YPG, which ranks 29th).

Here's the bottom line. I'm not buying Atlanta's ONE-game resurgence. Yes, the Falcons ran for 143 yards last Sunday but even with that effort, the Falcons enter this contest averaging a woeful 76.8 YPG (29th) on 3.8 YPA. Yes, the Falcons held the Saints to NINE points but they are allowing 28.8 PPG (28th). Am I supposed to believe that Atlanta all of a sudden has found a pass rush after they sacked Drew Brees SIX timea? Are you kidding me? The Falcons entered that game with just SEVEN sacks in their first eight games. One last thing, the Falcons come to Carolina having gone 5-16 ATS in road games since the beginning of the 2017 season. That's a 76% "go-against."

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Rout is on the Cle Browns at 8:20 ET.

The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind 2nd-year QB Baker Mayfield. Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Cleveland snapped a 4-game losing streak last Sunday, edging the Bills, 19-16 to 'improve' to 3-6. However, the Browns are still holding out hope of making a run at a postseason berth and welcome their longtime time rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers, to Cleveland on Thursday. Cleveland is hoping to emulate Pittsburgh's turnaround, one which has seen the Steelers win FOUR in a row after a 1-4 start.

The Steelers lost starting QB Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2 but have surged into playoff contention and currently hold down the 6th and final playoff spot in the AFC. Pittsburgh's defense does not remind anyone of "The Steel Curtain" but it has scored in THREE of the past four games. "They are playing like the ‘85 (Chicago) Bears," QB Mason Rudolph said of his defense following Sunday's 17-12 win over the LA Rams. "It seems like, every week, forcing turnovers every other series." Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has made an enormous impact on Pittsburgh's defense since he was acquired from Miami in mid-Sep, returning a fumble 43 yards for a TD on Sunday and bringing back an interception 96 yards for a score in the previous week's two-point win over Indianapolis. Rudolph has settled into his role and while he's not prolific, he has completed 64.5% for 1,933 yards with 11 TDs and just four INTs for a 93.0 QB rating. He's 4-2 as Pittsburgh's starter, losing only a 4-point decision at San Francisco and a 3-point OT game at home to Baltimore.

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 59.9 percent with 9 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 75.2. However, the Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (919 rushing yards on 5.3 YPA with 6 TDs) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have 'tons' of talent, underachieving due to Mayfield's poor play (Landry has two TD catches and OBJ just one). The Cleveland D is allowing 24.6 PPG (21st).

Here's the rub. Kudos to Pittsburgh's improved defensive play and Rudolph's better-than-expected QB play. However, I am NOT convinced that the Steelers aren't doing it "with mirrors." They have no running game at all (average 83.2 YPG to rank 27th) and while Connor may return here, he reminds no one of Bell, with 380 YR on 3.9 YPA. As for Pittsburgh's passing game, it also ranks 27th, averaging 205.6 YPG. The Browns were able to snap a 4-game losing streak vs Buffalo,as Mayfiled directed a 10-play, 82-yard TD drive in the closing minutes. He's completing 66.3% the last two games, averaging 255.5 YPG thru the air with three TD passes and zero INTs in 80 attempts. Chubb ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing and eclipsed 100 yards for the 4th time in six games last week (he's had EIGHT straight games with at least 90 yards from scrimmage). Joining the backfield mix last Sunday after serving an 8-game suspension was former Kansas City RB Kareem Hunt, a former 1,000-yard rusher who picked up 30 yards rushing and added seven catches for 44 yards in his season debut. Also, Landry caught nine passes and a TD last week, while OBJ had five catches, his 4th straight with at least five receptions.

I'm not buying into Cleveland's hope of making the playoffs but I would not be surprised to see the Browns play MUCH better down the stretch with a .500 record within reach. FOUR of Cleveland's last six games (after this one) feature Miami, two vs 0-9 Cincy and a game with 3-6-1 Arizona. Pittsburgh's traveling on a short week and I think FIVE straight wins for this mediocre team is a 'bridge too far!'

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Nov Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:15 ET.

Who'da thunk it? Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but here in 2019, when the Ravens knocked off the Pats in Week 9's SNF game, the San Francisco 49ers found themselves as the NFL's lone remaining undefeated team. The 49ers have some extra rest (played the Thursday night game in Week 9) and they'll need every edge they can get, as Russell Wilson (leading MVPcandidiate?) leads the Seattle Seahawks into Levi's Stadium. Seattle is 7-2 and win would leave them just a half-game back of San Francisco in the NFC West. This once-fierce rivalry between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco had a bit of everything during a heated stretch early this decade but with the departure of Harbaugh, most of the steam came out of the rivalry. In fact, this is the first time since Thanksgiving night in 2014, where both teams have a winning record.

No QB is playing better than Russell Wilson, who has a 22-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has posted a passer rating of 102 or higher in eight of nine games. He's completing 68.3% for 2,505 yards and his QB rating of 118.2 is tops in the league. Tyler Lockett (team-high 59 catches and six TDs) has developed into Wilson's top target but note that rookie DK Metcalf is a star in the making, with 29 catches (18.1 YPC) with five TDs. Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season (160.0 YPG) but the team checks in averaging 131.7 YPG on the ground this season (7th). However, RB Carson is coming on strong. After totaling only 158 yards in Seattle's first three games, he's had 100-plus in FOUR of his last six (764 yards on the season). Seattle is a legitimate NFC title contender but its "Legion of Boom" defense is a thing of the past, as the Seahawks are allowing 25.6 PPG (22nd) on 380.8 YPG (25th).

While QB Jimmy Garoppolo takes up a lot of 'oxygen' (more in a bit), one HAS to start with San Francisco's defense. The 49ers rank first in total D (24.10 YPG) and second in scoring D (12.8 PPG). However, the 49ers suffered a big loss last week when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense. "Since Day 1, the defense has been what it is because of him," starting MLB Fred Warner said. "He was playing at a Pro Bowl level, but the things people didn't notice is what really made him stand apart." Getting back to Garoppolo, he threw for a personal-best four TDs and eclipsed 300 yards (317) for the third time in his career in San Francisco's 28-25 victory over Arizona on Oct 31. He's completing 70.3% of his passes but even with that four-TD effort, his ratio on the season is 13-7 (not 22-1 like Wilson). Garoppolo's 'LEGEND' is based on his record as a starter (16-2, including 14-2 with the 49ers). He's greatly helped by the NFL's second-best rushing attack (171.1 YPG), led by Matt Beida (524 yards on 5.3 YPA) plus supported by Coleman (355) and Mostert (307).

Seattle had won 10 straight in the series before a 26-23 (OT) loss at Levi’s in Week 15 of 2018. However, as noted above, San Francisco was in a "rebuilding mode" in that stretch. What has me 'loving' Seattle is this spot is Seattle going 4-0 SU on the road in 2019 and covering SIX in a row as an underdog going back to early in the 2018 season. I called Baltimore's upset in Week 9 over the Pats and predict it will be "deja vu all over again" here in Week 10, with Seattle handing San Francisco its first loss of 2019.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET.

The Minnesota Vikings lost 16-6 at Chicago in Week 4, falling to 2-2. In the aftermath of that loss, there were rumblings that the Vikings were depending too much on RB Dalvin Cook and not using their passing game to the fullest. Whether that was the spark or not, Kirk Cousins averaged 325.7 YPG passing with 10 TDs and just one INT the next three games, as the Vikings went 3-0 SU & ATS while averaging 36.0 PPG. Minnesota made it FOUR straight wins in Week 8, although that "W'" in a fairly listless effort over the sad-sack Redskins (Minnesota won 19-9). However, the Vikings lost a close one last Sunday at KC 26-23, despite the Chiefs playing without Pat Mahomes.

The Dallas Cowboys opened the season 3-0, averaging 32.3 PPG but the Dallas offense then got shut down in a 12-10 loss at New Orleans, fell behind the Packers 28-0 in a 34-24 home loss and followed that contest with a shocking 24-22 loss at the then-winless NY Jets! All of a sudden, the Cowboys looked like a fraud. However, Dallas responded with a dominating 37-10 home win over the Eagles in a Week 7 SNF contest and after a bye week, a 37-18 victory at the New York Giants in a MNF Week 9 contest. The Cowboys now play a THIRD straight primetime game, as they welcome the Vikings to Arlington on Sunday night in Week 10.

The Vikings got a nice break last week when the Chargers upset the Packers, so Minnesota remains just one game back of Green Bay in the NFC North. Kirk Cousins remains an enigma. He's completing 68.8% for 2,217 yards with 16 TDs and three INTs on the season (112.0 QB rating) but while hew threw fthree TDs last Sunday, he has still not guided Minnesota to a victory when trailing entering the fourth quarter. He fell to 0-10-1 in such games after Kansas City kicked two FGs in the final 2 1/2 minutes last week. Some bad news comes in the fact that WR Adam Thielen (27 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) aggravated a hamstring injury in Sunday's loss and will not play. RB Dalvin Cook has run for an NFL-leading 894 yards (5.1 YPA / 9 TDs) and may get more work. Minnesota's D has been very good, allowing 17.6 PPG (4th) on 320.9 YPG (8th).

Dak Prescott is having an excellent season, averaging 297.5 YPG passing and completing 69.6 percent of his passes (both would be career highs). He leads an offense that tops the NFL with 436.8 YPG, although Dallas is averaging 28.4 PPG (just 5th-best). WR Amari Cooper (42 catches / 16.7 YPC / 6 TDs) was diagnosed with a bruised knee that prevented him from practicing Thursday but he is expected to play Sunday. We can also expect Dallas to lean on RB Ezekiel Elliott (741 yards on 4.7 YPA with six TDs), as he's rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games, including 139 on 23 carries last week against the Giants. The Cowboys' D hasn't gotten enough credit, as it is allowing 17.8 PPG (5th) on 318.1 YPG (6th).

Here's the bottom line. Minnesota fell back into some bad habits at KC, as Kirk Cousins was again subject to the sort of pressure that often gets him rattled. The Vikings rarely played from behind their four-game winning streak but Cousins is now 0-10-1 SU in his career with Minnesota when trailing in the fourth quarter. Adding 'insult to injury,' Minnesota enters this contest winless in its last 10 road games (0-9-1) versus teams with a winning record. One more thing, Prescott, is 4-0 head-to-head against Cousins!

Good luck..Larry

My 8* NFL Week 10 Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

It would hardly be a stretch to say that stretch the 6-2 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 2-6 Cleveland Browns have been among the biggest disappointments.However, one could take the position that the Bills have taken advantage of a 'soft' schedule, as their SIX wins have come over teams with a 9-42 (.214) combined record. Then again, 6-2 is 6-2 and Buffalo currently down the No. 5 seed in the AFC. As for Cleveland, the Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind second-year QB Baker Mayfield .Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Now, as the 2019 season has passed its mid-point (Week 9 of a 17-week season), the Browns are just 2-6, after losing their FOURTH consecutive game 24-19 at New England last Sunday.

Josh Allen was drafted six spots behind Mayfield, despite concerns that he was not NFL-ready due to facing suspect competition at Wyoming. However, he is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs in his first two seasons (still has eight games remaining in 2019). Allen is completing 60.9% for 1,653 yards with 10 TDs and seven INTs, while rushing for 247 yards and four TDs, The running game is averaging 129.4 YPG (11th), led by veteran Frank Gore (3437 yards on 4.1 YPA). Devin Singletary has endured an injury-plagued rookie campaign but he ran for a season-high 95 yards and a TD last week and has 267 yards on the season, averaging a whopping 6.7 YPA. The key for Buffalo is a defense that ranks 3rd in both scoring D (16.4 PPG) and total D (296.2 YPG).

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his promising rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 58.7 percent with 7 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 71.3. The Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (803 yards on 5.2 YPA) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have both underachieved with Mayfield's poor play (each have just one TD catch!). The Cleveland defense is allowing 25.6 PPG (23rd).

A case can be made that Cleveland was at its worst last Sunday, as the the Browns were unable to beat a Denver team starting a QB (Brandon Allen) who hadn’t taken a regular-season snap! Rumors abound with stories of a fractured clubhouse, as rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens is already on the 'hot seat' (welcome to Cleveland). "Super Bowl or Bust" was the Browns’ motto entering this season and the 2019 are all but guaranteed to be a BUST. Bad teams don't execute consistently, have zero attention to detail, commit way too many penalties and get poor QB play. Don't the Browns check all those boxes? In stark comparison (putting aside the issue of a weak schedule), Buffalo has been the antithesis of Cleveland, succeeding without hype. QB Josh Allen has mostly avoided mistakes plus Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott seems 'light years' ahead of over-matched first-year head man Freddie Kitchens(will there be a second year?). A couple of things to 'chew on.' Cleveland ranks 25th in the league in red-zone offense (46.2 percent), while Buffalo ranks first (71.4). Buffalo is 3-0 on the road, while Cleveland has lost all three games at home. What changes here?

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

The Baltimore Ravens have been the 'kings' of the preseason (have won 17 straight!) but since winning the Super Bowl after the 2012 season, Baltimore has missed the playoffs in FOUR of the last six seasons. However, the 2019 Ravens are winners of FOUR in a row, after handing the Patriots their first loss of the season last Sunday night. Baltimore's convincing 37-20 victory over the Patriots leaves them 6-2 in the AFC North but more importantly, the victory could be the kind of signature win to propel the team to greater heights. Baltimore heads to Cincinnati this Sunday to take on the 0-8 Bengals, the NFL's only remaining winless team. The Bengals are coming off their bye week and decided to pull the plug on longtime starting QB Andy Dalton. Fourth-round draft choice Ryan Finley (NC St) will be making his first NFL start.

Many teams questioned whether Heisman-winner Lama Jackson had "the goods" to become an NFL starter but few (if any) have ny doubts now. Jackson has turned the Ravens into an offensive juggernaut that leads the NFL in scoring offense at 31.4 PPG. Baltimore is also first in rushing with 204.9 YPG (5.5 YPA) and second in total offense (427.0 YPG). Jackson is completing 64.3% for 1,813 yards with 12 TDs and five INTs, plus leads the team with 637 rushing yards (6.4 YPA and 5 TDs). Another former Heisman-winner, RB Mark Ingram, has 585 rushing yards, while averaging 5.1 YPA and leads the team with seven rushing TDs. Baltimore's defense is no longer in the mold of the Ray Lewis era but with its "new and improved" offense, allowing 22.0 PPG (16th) on 348.8 YPG (15th) is good enough.

The Bengals out-played the Seahawks in Week 1 at Seattle (429 yards to 232) but lost 21-20. It's been all downhill since, as the Bengals have gone 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS and now will turn the starting QB duties over to Finley, who has never taken a snap in an NFL regular-season game. Cincinnati's offense ranks 29th in scoring (15.5 PPG) and 25th in total offense (317.9 YPG) plus the team's turnover margin of minus-9 isn't helping a defense ranks last in yardage allowed (435.8 YPG) and 24th in scoring defense (26.3 PPG). The good news? How can it get worse? No Dalton at QB just may be a good thing. "I think I'm ready for it," Finley told reporters. "I'm confident in my ability to play, and I'm confident in this team's ability to bounce back and get some wins."

So why play Cincy? Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its nine division games since the beginning of last season (that's an 89% "go-against) and believe it or not, Cincinnati has won SIX of the last seven times it has hosted Baltimore. Baltimore is 'ripe' for a letdown after its Sunday night domination of the Pats and enters this game on an abysmal 2-12 ATS run when favored (an 86% "go-against), going back to Week 7 of last season..

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC North) is on the Chi Bears at 1:00 ET.

The 3-4-1 Detroit Lions and the 3-5 Chicago Bears meet Sunday at Soldier Field and while neither team looks "playoff-bound" (or playoff-worthy), the loser of this contest can pretty much start preparing for the 2020 draft and season. The Lions lost 31-24 at Oakland last Sunday, falling to 1-4 in their last five games. QB Matthew Stafford passed for 406 yards and three TDs but failed to connect on a fourth-down attempt in the waning moments. As for the Bears, they went three-and-out on their first five possessions and managed a meager nine total yards of offense in the first half at Philly, falling behind 19-0 in a 22-14 loss, the team's FOURTH in a row.

My 9* AFC West Game of the Month is on the Oak Raiders at 8:20 ET.

The 4-5 LA Chargers and the 4-4 Oakland Raiders are still both 'alive' for a playoff spot in the AFC but both teams will need to finish strong. The Chargers opened 2-5 but eked out a 17-16 win at Chicago in Week 8 and then played their best game of the year in beating the Packers 26-11 in LA last Sunday (Green Bay entered the game 7-1). The Chargers dominated the first half on both sides of the ball gained 250 yards in the first half, while holding the Packers to just 50 yards. However, LA led just 9-0, before RB Gordon added two rushing TDs and PK Badgley kicked a fourth FG for a 15-point win.

The Raiders went just 4-12 in 2018, in Jon Gruden's 1st year back as the team's head coach. All in all, Oakland has to be happy to be 4-4 midway through its 16-game schedule, as after opening with two home games (a win over Denver and a loss to KC), the Raiders played their next FIVE games away from home (four road games and a contest in London). Oakland's game last Sunday against the Lions was the team's first home game since Sep 15. The Raiders needed a last-second goal-line stand to hold off Detroit 31-24 but moved within a game of the sixth and final playoff slot. "I love this place. It's special," QB Derek Carr said of Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. "To come home in front of them and get a win, especially the way we did it. It would be nice to win something 40-0 some time. But when you win one like this, it does so many good things for a team."

LA fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt following the team's 17-16 victory in Chicago and in last Sunday's win over Green Bay, there was clearly more of an effort to run the ball. Melvin Gordon ran for 80 yards and two TDs, while Austin Ekeler added 70 yards, as the Chargers established a season-high of 159 yards rushing against Green Bay. Rivers threw for 294 yards on a season-low 28 attempts but as noted above, the result was LA's best game of the year. Rivers is averaging 292.6 YPG through the air and is well on his way to another 4,000-yard passing season (his 11th in the L12 years) but he's got a modest 12-7 TD-to-INT ratio. LA's defense has been solid all season, ranking 8th in both points allowed (18.7 per) and total D (322.8 YPG).

Rumors were that Gruden and QB Carr were not quite on the same page but Derek Carr is having an excellent season, completing 71.2% for an average of 251.4 YPG with 13 TDs and just 4 INTs (105.1 QB rating). Rookie RB Jacobs (from Alabama) is blossoming into a star, rushing for 740 yards on 4.9 YPA with six TDs. Carr has capable WRs in Williams (23 catches / 15.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and Renfro (24 catches / 10.7 YPC / 2 TDs) but his "go-to" guy has been TE Darren Waller, who leads the team with 48 catches and 548 receiving yards. Oakland's D has been a problem, allowing 27.0 PPG (26th) and an NFL-high 299.9 YPG.

Los Angeles has won four in a row in the series (including a pair of double-digits victories by a combined 46-16 last season) but Oakland is NOT a 4-12 team in 2019. I'm not ready to accept that the Chargers' rushing attack is now back on track because of ONE game, as after all, the Chargers rank 28th in the NFL by averaging 79.4 YPG on the ground on a 3.6 YPA. Meanwhile, Oakland's Jacobs has become the first rookie since Cincinnati's Ickey Woods to rush for two TDs three times in his first eight contests, while to leading a running game averaging 136.4 YPG on the ground (4th). Jacobs and Oakland's OL, which has permitted only one sack the last four weeks, have sure helped Derek Carr in playing mistake-free football. Carr has nine TDs and just one INT over his last five games, while posting QB ratings of 119.2, 125.0 and 116.2 in his last three.

This is a HUGE game for the Raiders, as after the Chargers, they play the Bengals (0-8) and Jets (1-7). Beat the Chargers and the Raiders could reasonably be 7-4 through 11 games!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NYG at 8:15 ET.

My 9* SNF Magic is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET.

The New England Patriots have opened 8-0 behind a suffocating defense that is No. 1 in scoring D (7.6 PPG) and total D (234.0 YPG). New England also leads the league with 19 interceptions and 31 sacks. The Pats are No. 1 in turnover differential (plus-17) and have incredibly allowed just 15 third-down conversions in 96 attempts. Brady is not having a vintage season (64.7% for 2,251 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs), while New England's running game is averaging only 95.2 YPG (23rd). However, the Pats lead the NFL with an average of 31.2 PPG. Bill Belichick's team is seeking its first 9-0 start since 2015 when it visit Baltimore for NBC's SNF. The Patriots are 8-1 in the last nine regular-season meetings (6-1 with Brady) with the Ravens, but Baltimore has posted a pair of playoff victories at New England in that span.

The Ravens are 5-2 and lead a division (AFC North) which features three sub-.500 teams (Steelers are in 2nd-place at 3-4). The Ravens were off last week and QB Lamar Jackson threw for a season-low 143 yards in a 30-16 Week 7 win at Seattle. However, he ran for 116 yards and a TD. It was his third 100-yard game of the season to boost his team-leading total to 576. Jackson is the only QB to ever pass for at least 1,500 yards (1,650) and rush for 500 (576 on 6.9 YPC with 3 TDs) in the first seven games of a season. Mark Ingram has rushed for 470 yards (4.7 YPC) and seven TDs. That duo has Baltimore leading the NFL in rushing yards (204.1 YPG on 5.5 YPC) and only New England is averaging more than Baltimore's 30.6 PPG. However, the team's defense is no longer in the mold of the Ray Lewis era, allowing 22.3 PPG on 349.7 YPG (both averages rank 16th).

I could go on and on listing superlatives about New England. The Patriots have already squared off and WON against four QBs drafted in the first round in 2018 and will now face a fifth member from that class in Jackson. What's more, New England has won 21 straight against first- or second-year QBs but as noted above, Lamar Jackson is literally, in a "class by himself" (see above). I noted Baltimore's top-ranked rushing offense above and will add that the Pats allowed 159 rushing yards (7.2 YPC) last Sunday against the Browns. Could Baltimore run the ball and keep it away from Brady. Teams can't "win'em all" and it's tough to ignore that under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 9-2 SU coming off a bye week. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 9 Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The Bears won the NFC Central last season with a 12-4 record, led by a defense that ranked first in points allowed (17.7 per) and third in total defense (299.7 YPG). However, Chicago's postseason ended with Cody Parkey's double-doink FG misfire in a 16-15 home loss to the Eagles. Chicago still features an excellent defense, allowing 17.7 PPG (6th) on 316.6 YPG (7th) but the team's offense has been a HUGE problem. When Eddy Pineiro's (Chicago's new PK) 41-yard FG attempt went awry in the waning moments of last Sunday's 17-16 setback to the LA Chargers, the Bears fell to 3-4, leaving them in last-place in a division led by the 7-1 Packers and one which also includes the 6-2 Vikings. The Eagles have had a rough time of it in 2019 as well, although Philly is off an impressive 38-13 win last week at Buffalo, a team which entered with a 5-1 record. It was Philly's THIRD straight road game but the Eagles delivered their best effort of the season, coming off back-to-back road losses tat Minnesota and Dallas where they were outscored 75-30!

Pineiro's missed FG pushed Chicago's offensive woes off 'the front page' but things won't improve for the Bears unless they can 'fix' and offense which ranks 27th (18.3 PPG) on 281.4 YPG (29th). I read this quote and am 'forced' to 'borrow' it. "If here is one thing worse than whiffing on taking a QB high in the draft like the Bears did with Mitch Trubisky, it’s compounding that mistake by sticking with Trubisky. " As Archie Bunker once opined, "Case Closed!" Chicago ranks 29th in passing yards (198.3 per) and 26th in rushing (83.1 YPG), on 3.6 YPC. Those rushing numbers come AFTER rookie David Montgomery posted season highs in carries (27) and rushing yards (135) against the Chargers.

Chicago could sure use Jordan Howard, who rushed for 3,370 yards and 24 touchdowns during his first three seasons with Chicago. However, he was traded to Philadelphia for a conditional sixth-round pick. Howard leads the Eagles with 443 yards (4.4 YPC / 5 TDs). Conventional wisdom says Carson Wentz is having an "off year" but he kept pace with Seattle's Russell Wilson by tossing a TD pass in his 11th consecutive contest on Sunday. He's got a 14-4 ratio but his throws have been VERY conservative. TE Ertz (37 catches) is averaging only 11.5 YPC, while WRs Jeffrey (30) and Agholor (29) are averaging only 10.6 and 9.0, respectively. Philly's defense has battled injury problems most of the season (especially in the secondary) but the unit played its best game of 2019 at Buffalo, allowing 13 points on just 253 yards (note: the secondary has gotten healthie).

Sure, it's "playoff revenge" for Chicago but discounting a London game in Week 5 (Oct 6), the Bears haven’t played a true road game since Sep 23 (Week 3). Looking back, maybe it wasn’t such an upset that the Bears lost to the Raiders in London. Chicago just isn’t a very good team and its morale can't be very high due to inept QB play and a shaky PK. Meanwhile, the Philly offense just put up 38 points on a Buffalo D that entered last week's game allowing just 15.6 PPG plus it appears like WR Sean Jackson is ready to return from an abdominal injury that has kept him out since Week 2 (eight catches on 19.3 YPC!). Philly moves to 5-4 and then awaits the results of MNF, when the 5-3 Cowboys play at the Giants. As for the Bears, they will begin "looking ahead" to 2020, while trying to figure just why they chose Trubisky ahead of Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 draft. OOOPS!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error G.O.M. is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET.

The Minnesota Vikings lost 16-6 at Chicago in Week 4, falling to 2-2. In the aftermath of that loss, there were rumblings that the Vikings were depending too much on RB Dalvin Cook and not using their passing game to the fullest. Whether that was the spark or not, Kirk Cousins averaged 325.7 YPG passing with 10 TDs and just one INT the next three games, as the Vikings went 3-0 SU & ATS while averaging 36.0 PPG. Minnesota made it FOUR straight wins in Week 8, although that "W'" in a fairly listless effort over the sad-sack Redskins (Minnesota won 19-9). The Vikings are 6-2 and trail 7-1 Green Bay in the NFC North but also have themselves in excellent wild card position, as they visit Kansas City on Sunday.

The Chiefs opened the season 4-0 behind the marvelous Patrick Mahomes but then got shocked 19-13 at home by the Colts in Week 5 (SNF). A 31-24 home loss to Houston followed and then at Denver in Week 7 (Thursday night), Mahomes dislocated his kneecap. Matt More took over and played well enough for KVC to easily down the Broncos, 30-6. Mahomes was unable to go in KC's Week 8 game at home vs the Packers (SNF) and the Chiefs lost a close one, 31-24 (more later). Mahomes was limited in practice during this week and in the end was ruled out again for this contest. KC is 5-3 and with no other AFC West team above-.500, (Oakland is 3-4 and in 2nd-place), there is NO need to rush Mahomes back.

Dalvin Cook is the league’s leading rusher with 823 yards (5.3 YPC) and an NFL-best nine TDs (Vikings rank 3rd in rushing at 160.1 YPG). Cook also has 29 catches for 293 yards plus WRs Diggs (37 catches / 19.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and Thielen (27 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) are also happy now that they are getting more opportunities. Cousins is completing 72.1% for 1,997 yards with 13 TD s and just three INTs. Minnesota's D doesn't remind anyone of "The Purple People Eaters" but it ranks 3rd in allowing 16.5 PPG on 313.9 YPG (5th).

KC's defense has been the team's weak spot but the Chiefs have 13 sacks for 128 yards over the past two games, with an increase in pressure dialed up by new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo being a big reason for it. Overall, the defense is now allowing 22.6 PPG, ranking 16th in a 32-team league. It's hard to list KC offensive numbers with Mahomes sitting out. However, Matt Moore has been solid filling in for last year's MVP. He went 10 of 19 for 117 yards with one TD and zero INTs at Denver and then did his best in trying to stay with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last Sunday night. The hard-fought loss could NOT be blamed on Moore, as he was 24 of 36 for 267 yards with two TDs and again, ZERO interceptions (had a QB rating of 107.1).

Kansas City has lost three of its last four (all by seven points or less), with all three losses coming at Arrowhead Stadium (home teams have struggled league-wide in 2019). Ironically, this is the second straight week that KC faces an old Super Bowl foe. It was a SB I rematch last week with Green Bay and this game with Minnesota is a SB IV rematch. The Chiefs famously beat the Vikings 23-7 in the final Super Bowl before the 1970 merger (remember "65 Toss Power Trap?"). Why am I taking the 'injured' Chiefs here? Kirk Cousins can’t be trusted to make tough throws in a hostile road environment (he's NO Aaron Rodgers) and going back to 2016, the Vikings are 0-11-1 SU & ATS (that's a 100% "go against") in outdoor road games vs winning teams. Good enough for me to "take the points," with Hank Stram 'smiling from up above.'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Thursday Showdown is on the Arz Cardinals at 8:20 ET.

Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 7-0., joining the AFC's New England Patriots (8-0) as one of just TWO unbeatens in NFL 2019. The 49ers were among the early surprises in the NFC but they have now emerged as one of the front-runners to reach the Super Bowl. San Francisco permitted just 10 points in three straight wins (Weeks 5-7) and then BLASTED the visiting Carolina Panthers (who came in on a 4-0 SU & ATS run) in Week 8, 51-13 last Sunday, Arizona's 1st-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury’ got off to an 0-3-1 start in 2019 but the Cards rattled off three consecutive victories in Weeks 5 through 7, before coming back to earth in a 31-9 drubbing at New Orleans this past Sunday. Thursday's matchup will offer an intriguing subplot, featuring a showdown between the top-two picks in this year's NFL Draft, No. 1 pick QB Kyler Murray of Arizona and No. 2 pick Nick Bosa.(DE) of San Francisco.

Bosa earned a spot in the history books last week by becoming the third rookie to record at least three sacks and an interception in one game since the sack became an official stat in 1982. San Francisco's defense ranks 1st in total D (224.4 YPG) and 2nd in points allowed (11.0 PPG). QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets plenty of kudos for record as a starter (15-2 / 13-2 with SF) but his numbers are pretty average in 2019 (217.0 YPG with 9 TDs and 7 INTs). His receiving corps is fairly average as well but the team's running game ranks second in the NFL with 181.1 YPG. Little-known RBs like Breida (446 yards / 5.3 YPC) and Mostert (309 yards / 5.7 YPC) have seen former Atlanta Falcon Tevin Coleman really start to make a difference. He ran for 105 yards (9.5 YPC) with three TDs plus had a TD catch last Sunday vs the Panthers. Coleman missed three games earlier but now has 332 yards on 4.7 YPC with five TDs.

In stark contrast to San Francisco's running game, Arizona is dealing with some serious issues in its backfield due to injuries to its top RBs, David Johnson (ankle) and Chase Edmonds (hamstring). Those injuries necessitated the acquisition of Kenyan Drake from Miami on Monday. "I think Kenyan can come in and do some things that can fit what we need right now,” Kingsbury said of Drake, who rushed for 535 yards and had a career-high 53 receptions last season with the Dolphins. Murray is averaging 248.5 yards passing, completing 63.% with seven TDs and 4 INTs, while also rushing for 279 yards (two TDs). Arizona is averaging only 21.2 PPG (20th), more than a TD less then San Francisco (29.6 PPG) plus the Cards' D has struggled, ranking 29th in both points allowed (27.9) and yards allowed (407.1).

At first blush, the 49ers are CLEARLY a better team than the Cards. Yes, the Cards won three in a row before their loss to the Saints, but those wins cane over the Bengals, Falcons and Giants (that trio is a combined 3-21). However, the Cards are surely a better team than the Redskins, who at home in Week 7, lost just 9-0 to these 49ers. Aloso looming over this game is the fact that the Cards have beaten the 49ers EIGHT straight times, holding San Francisco to 18 points or less in the last FOUR meetings! I'm taking the "big points" with this division home dag!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

This Week 8 SNF game on NBC was expected to be a celebration of two of the NFL's storied franchises, the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs, teams that played in the first Super Bowl. The teams feature two transcendent QBs, Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay and Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City. However, Mahomes, the NFL's reigning MVP dislocating his kneecap in last week’s 30-6 win at Denver. He remarkably practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday and Thursday but Matt Moore is expected to start in his place. The Packers are atop the NFC Central at 6-1, but the Vikings loom at 6-2. The 5-2 Chiefs have some 'breathing room' in the AFC West, as Oakland is 3-3, while Denver and San Diego lag at 2-5.

Rodgers 'lit up' the Raiders last Sunday, passing for 429 yards and five TDs, plus added a rushing TD in a 42-24 win over Oakland in Green Bay. Rodgers is completing 64.8% for 2,109 yards with a 13-2 ratio, despite the fact that the team's best WR, Davante Adams (turf toe), has missed the last three games (all GB wins). He’s likely to sit out again on Sunday plus TE Jimmy Graham and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling are both battling ankle injuries (both are expected to play). Even Rodgers is not 100 percent, as he's playing with a tweaked knee. Rodgers has been effective despite the fact that the Packers have failed to crack 80 rushing yards in FOUR of their seven contests. Green Bay ranks 20th with 99.3 YPG on the ground. The Green Bay D allows 381.0 YPG (26th) but is somehow holding opponents to 19.9 PPG (9th).

Kansas City possesses the No. 3 offense in the league in both points scored (28.9 PPG) and total yards (400.4 YPG). Like Green Bay, KC gets very little from its rushing game, which averages only 82.3 YPG (25th). Of course, without Mahomes (65.1%, averaging 323.1 YPG with a 15-1 ratio), some of the team's offensive prowess will be affected. However, expect KC to get more creative. RBs LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams have more talent than they shown in 2019 plus WR Tyreek Hill is back making 'waves,' while TE Travis Kelce leads the team in receptions (38) and receiving yards (541). Kansas City’s defense has been maligned but the Chiefs have forced turnovers in SIX of their seven contests, including four games with multiple takeaways.

Green Bay has only been a road favorite FOUR times the last two seasons (1st time in 2019 in this contest), going 2-2 SU, with both wins coming in OT. I expect KC to 'circle the wagons' here on this Sunday night game behind Matt Moore. Note that KC has SEVEN players averaging between 13.4 and 17.7 YPC. Moore will be "good enough," here. Take the points but I don't expect we'll need them.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Car Panthers at 4:05 ET.

Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 6-0. The 49ers will welcome the Carolina Panthers to San Francisco for this Week 8 contest, as one of two undefeated teams in the league. The Panthers entered 2019 off a 7-9 season and opened 0-2 but Carolina has rallied to win four straight (4-0 ATS).

San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets plenty of hype (more in a bit) but what about Carolina's Kyle Allen? He took over for the injured Cam Newton and Allen is the first QB in the Super Bowl era to win his first five starts without throwing an interception (his first start in that stretch came at the end of the 2018 season / 4-0 in 2019). Allen is hardly prolific but he's completing 65.6% for an average of 226.8 YPG with seven TDs and zero INTs, giving him a QB rating of 106.0. Christian McCaffrey is arguably the best all-purpose back in the NFL with 618 rushing yards (4.9 YPC / 7 TDs) and 35 catches for 305 yards (2 TDs). He ranks second in the league in yards from scrimmage (923) and is tied for the NFL lead with nine TDs. Few think of Carolina as an offensive team but the Panthers rank 5th at 27.7 PPG. The team's defensive numbers are middle-of-the-road (22.2 PPG allowed ranks 15th and 344.0 YPG allowed ranks 12th) but Carolina has forced 15 turnovers, second to only New England's 22.

Speaking of defenses, the 49ers' defense is in the midst of a truly dominant stretch. San Francisco is coming off a 9-0 win at Washington and the 49ers have held THREE straight opponents to seven points or less, plus to fewer than 200 total yards (note: SF is only the SIXTH team to do so since 1990!). The 49ers currently rank second in both points allowed (10.7 per) and yards allowed (223.5 per). QB Jimmy Garoppolo keeps getting credit for his record as a starting QB and he should. He was 2-0 in New England subbing for Tom Brady and has now opened 12-2 with San Francisco. However, he's got a modest 19-14 TD-to-INT ratio in his 14 games as the Niners' starting QB, including a 7-6 ratio in 2019, with San Francisco ranking 25th in passing yards (214.5 per) thi season. The San Francisco D and its unsung running game (ranks 2nd at 172.7 YPG with virtual unknowns) has been the real key to the team's success.

Garoppolo is NOT a polished QB (see above numbers TY) and his receiving corps is below average. Meanwhile, the Panthers have taken off since Kyle Allen replaced a hobbled Cam Newton (note: Carolina was 0-8 in Newton’s last eight starts). He is efficient and the Panthers have rallied around him. Carolina is 11-5 as a road dog the last four-plus seasons (2-0 in 2019) and the Panthers have won SIX straight meetings with the 49ers, including a 23-3 victory in their last trip to San Francisco in 2017. It's also possible that the 49ers could be 'peeking ahead' to next Thursday's NFC West game at Arizona. Take the points but I seen an OUTRIGHT win by Carolina.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 1:00 ET.

Few will NOT remember the Falcons blowing a 28-3 lead to the Pats in Super Bowl LI. However, that Atlanta team is a distant memory. The Falcons have lost FIVE in a row and sit 1-6 on the season, well are their way to a second straight losing season (Atlanta is currently, hands down, the NFC South's worst team!). Off a 37-10 home loss to the Rams last Sunday, the Falcons welcome the 5-2 Seattle Seahawks to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Seattle lost at home last week too, 30-16 to the Ravens, ending the Seahawks' three-game winning streak.

Seattle QB Russell Wilson is tied for the NFL lead with 15 TD passes and has been intercepted just once while in 230 attempts, while completing 68.3% for 1,945 yards (114.3 QB rating). RB Chris Carson (1,151 yards in 14 games) led the way for a running game that led the NFL in rushing at 160.0 YPG. He's on pace to surpass last season's total (569 yards in seven games) but Seattle is down to 127.0 YPG on the ground (12th). The team's "Legion of Boom" defense is no more but unlike Atlanta, Seattle remains a solid playoff contender.

Atlanta's 'nightmare' season was unforeseen and there is rising speculation that head coach Dan Quinn's job is in real jeopardy. WR Julio Jones spoke out this week saying, "Well, at the end of the day, we're out there on the field. Coach Quinn is not on the field. I don't know as far as defensive calls and things like that, how he does that, but the effort is there. I just feel like us, as competitors and professionals, we can do a better job of going out there and gelling together more." Speaking of results on the field, FOUR of Atlanta's losses have come by 14 or more points. QB Matt Ryan threw for 300 or more yards in each of the team's first six games but that streak ended in last week's loss to the Rams, as Ryan was held to 159 yards before leaving with a sprained right ankle. Ryan's "big numbers" have not helped much, as Atlanta has gone from having one of the better 1-2 rushing tandems in the NFL with Devonta Freeman and Telvin Coleman, to ranking 29th in rushing at 68.4 YPG (just 3.7 YPC). For all of Ryan's passing yards, the Falcons are averaging a modest 20.7 PPG (19th). Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense is awful, allowing 31.9 PPG (31st).

Ryan's streak of 154 consecutive starts is in serious jeopardy and it looks as if veteran backup Matt Schaub is being prepared to fill in for Ryan, but he hasn't started a game since 2015 (with Baltimore). Does it really matter? Russell Wilson is likely salivating at the prospect of facing a Falcons defense that has allowed an average of 41.3 points over its last three contests. On the season, Atlanta's pass D is allowing 69.6% completions (3rd-wort in the NFL), while allowing 17 TD passes with just two INTs in 230 pass attmepts (opposing QB rating of 116.3 in an NFL-worst. Then there is Atlanta's non-existent pass rush which has recorded only FIVE sacks. The clincher? The road team (in this case the Seahawks) is a perfect 7-0 ATS in Seattle's seven games in 2019. Can you say 8-0?

Good luck..Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Year is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles 'limp' into Buffalo for a Week 8 game with a 3-4 record, after getting crushed 37-10 in Dallas last Sunday night. Welcoming the Eagles will be the Buffalo Bills, who at 5-1, are off to their best start since the 2008 season.This marks Philly's THIRD straight road game, as prior to the loss to Dallas, Philly lost 38-20 at Minnesota. Philadelphia is 1-3 on the road in 2019, allowing 31.5 PPG. Turnovers have led to slow starts in each of the last two games for the Eagles, who have been outscored 51-17 in the first two quarters in losses to Minnesota and Dallas. Mistakes need to be held to a minimum versus Buffalo, as the Bills rank 3rd in both scoring (15.2 PPG) and overall D (292.7 YPG). The Bills returned from a Week 6 bye to win 31-21 at home vs the winless Dolphins in Week 7.

Carson Wentz is completing 61.3% for 1,649 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs on the season but it's been reported that an anonymous teammate was critical of the QB's play. The criticism is probably fair, as Wentz has committed six turnovers in Philadelphia's three road losses. Wentz has NOT thrown the ball downfield, as the team's top-three pass-catchers, TE Ertz (35) plus WRs Jeffrey (26) and Agholor (25) are averaging only between 9.7 and 11.5 YPC. Philly's running game is just average (111.7 YPG ranks 14th) and its defense has underachieved (26.6 PPG ranks 27th).

Buffalo QB Josh Allen has led his team to a 5-1 start but his numbers are VERY average. He's completing 62.4% for 1,324 yards with as many INTs as TDs (seven each). He's been helped by a running game that averages 135.8 YPG (7th), led by the ageless Frank Gore (388 yards on 4.5 YPC). However, Buffalo is 5-1 because of its defense. Then again, maybe Buffalo is 5-1 because of the competition it has played. Buffalo's lone loss was a a very competitive 16-10 defeat at the hands of unbeaten Pats but look at the team's FIVE wins. The Bills have beaten the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans and Dolphins. Those five teams owned a combined record of 6-27 (.182).

Considering the competition, are the Bills really a quality team? My bet says N-O! Yes, the Eagles has struggled so far but I'm not about sell them short, just yet. Playing a THIRD straight game on the road is NEVER a positive but after playing at the Vikings and Cowboys, I believe playing at the Bills is a "step down in class." I checked a number of Week 1 NFL power ratings and if Philly had played at Buffalo in Week 1, the Eagles would have been a four to six-point favorite. Take ANY points available but expect the Eagles to win pretty comfortably.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Game of the Month is on the NY Jets at 8:15 ET.

There are just two unbeaten teams in NFL 2019 and one is the surprising 6-0 San Francisco 49ers. The other is NO surprise, as it's the 6-0 New England Patriots. The Pats visit the 1-4 NY Jets for Week 7's MNF contest, having suffocated the Jets 30-14 back on Sep 22. The Pats D, which is No. 1 in points allowed (8.0), while ranking second in total yards allowed (234.7 YPG), passing yards allowed (161.0 YPG) and rushing yards allowed (73.7 YPG), held the Jets to only 105 total yards back in Week 3, giving New England a SEVENTH straight win in the series. New York was forced to go with third-string QB Luke Falk it that first meeting. However, the Jets have to feel more confident this time around, as starting QB Sam Darnold is back in the lineup (more later)..

The ageless Tom Brady is completing 65.4% for 1,743 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs (97.5 QB rating). Despite little help from his running game (Pats rank 20th with 101.5 YPG rushing on just 3.5 YPC), Brday has led New England's offense to an average of 31.7 PPG, tops in the NFL. I note New England's overall defense at the top but will add here that the Pats also rank second to Carolina with 25 sacks! Another HUGE reason the New Enfgland D is so stingy is that the Pats have held teams to an NFL-low 10 of 73 (13.7 percent) conversion rate on third down. The fewest third downs allowed in a 16-game season is 49 by the 1991 New Orleans Saints (the Pats are on pace to allow just 26, but can't be expected to keep up that pace, right?).

The Jets opened the season by taking a 16-0 lead over the Bills in Week 1, only to lose that game 17-16. Making matters worse, Sam Darnold missed the next three games due to mononucleosis, as the Jets would lose all three, while scoring a total of just 23 points. However, Darnold returned in Week 6 and led New York to its first victory of 2019, passing for 338 yards and two TDs in a 24-22 victory over visiting Dallas. RB Bell finally scored his first rushing TD last week but he's run for only 256 yards on 3.0 YPC on the season. However, he is tied for the team-lead with 28 catches. WRs Crowder (28 catches) and Anderson (16 catches for 16.0 YPC) were both thrilled to see Darnold's return. Crowder had six catches for 98 yards vs Dallas, while Anderson had five catches for 125! Getting back to Bell, the return of Darnold should "open things up" for one of the NFL's best RBs going back to 2014.

OK, Brady is 28-6 against the Jets in the regular season during his career but it should be noted Brady has been intercepted in each of his last THREE games and has failed to throw a TD pass in TWO of them. Brady and the New England offense have not exactly been hitting on all cylinders as of late and let me add that Bill Belichick has often had problems at MetLife, where Pats have covered just ONE of their last six vs Jets. With Darnold back and some renewed confidence, this Monday Night home dog should 'bark' LOUDLY!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic (NFC East Game of the Month) is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET.

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi Bears at 4:25 ET.

My 8* NFL Week 7 Las Vegas Insider at 1:00 ET.

The New York Giants opened the season with a 35-17 loss at Dallas and then a 28-14 home loss to the Bills. New York then decided it was time to bench Eli and give rookie QB Daniel Jones the starting job. Jones was outstanding in the Giants' 32-31 win at Tampa Bay (326 passing yards with two TDs and two rushing TDs) and backed that victory up with a 24-3 home win over the Redskins. However, the Vikings beat the Gianst 28-10 In Week 5 and the Pats beat them 35-14 in Week 6. Jones struggled in both losses, completing just 52.2% for an average of 171.5 YPG with two TDs and four INTs. The 2-4 Giants welcome the 2-3-1 Arizona Cardinals to MetLife Stadium on Sunday. Rookie QB Kyler Murray put on quite a performance as Arizona edged winless Cincinnati 26-23 in Week 5 on the road. He threw for 253 yards while running for 93 of the team's season-high 266 yards on the ground (also had a TD run). The reigning Heisman Trophy winner then threw for 340 yards and three TDs in last Sunday's thrilling 34-33 home win over Atlanta.

Murray was the No. 1 overall pick of the 2019 Draft, has started every game, and has the Cardinals on a two-game winning streak. He is an exceptional athlete who can beat teams with feet or his arm. Helping Murray out has been the team's rushing game, as the Cardinals have developed a versatile and productive two-man backfield with David Johnson and Chase Edmonds. Johnson is no longer an All-Pro like in 2016 but he has had at least 100 total yards in each of his past three games. His 30 catches for 315 yards both rank second on the team. His three receiving TDs rank first (note: he's on pace for a career-high 90 catches). Edmonds is a second-year player and he has 161 rushing yards (6.7 YPC) and has caught eight passes, including one for a TD. Defensively, the Cards have struggled, allowing 28.5 YPG (29th) on 411.0 YPG (30th). Arizona should get a boost with the return of eight-time Pro Bowler Patrick Peterson, who served a six-game suspension to begin the season, but how quickly he can make a difference is TBD.

Jones was the sixth pick of the 2019 Draft and while he is not as much of a runner as Murray, he has energized the offense with his ability to extend plays and throw accurate strikes. The Giants are well-rested (last played at New England in a Thursday night affair Oct 10) and expect to have star RB Saquon Barkley back on the field when they host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Barkley's high ankle sprain has healed enough for him to get back to full participation in practice this week. "No doubt in my mind," Barkley told reporters Thursday when asked if he felt that his ankle, which has caused him to miss three games, would hold up in a game. TE Evan Engram (knee) could also return after missing the loss to the Patriots.

Yes, the Cards have won two straight but the wins were over 0-6 Cincinnati and 1-5 Atlanta. It's more than just a little noteworthy that the Cards have blown 14 and 17-point leads past two weeks, respectively. The Cards beat the Bengals on a 31-yard FG as time expired and escaped with a one-point win over Atlanta when the Falcons missed a game-tying extra-point. Yes, the Giants have lost two straight but the loses have come against the 4-2 Vikings and 6-0 Pats. Arizona's win at Cincy in Week 5 marked just the team's SECOND win in its last 11 played in the Eastern Time Zone. This will mark Arizona's furthest trip of the 2019 season and a healthier Giants team will "make them pay!"

Good luck..Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 1:00 ET.

The Los Angeles Rams opened 3-0 but head to Atlanta in Week 7 on a three-game slide (first-ever under head coach Sean McVay). The defense allowed 55 points in loss to Tampa Bay and 30 points in a loss to Seattle but then it was the offense's turn to underachieve in last Sunday's 20-7 loss to the 49ers. The Rams have won the NFC West each of the last two seasons but at 3-3, trail both 5-1 Seattle and 5-0 San Francisco. The good news is that the Rams face the Falcons on Sunday, who have lost FOUR in a row to fall to 1-5 on the season. Two of the defeats were by fewer than four points, including a heartbreaking 34-33 loss at Arizona last week but the other two came by 14 and 21 points.

The Rams are coming off a truly 'ugly' offensive performance against the 49ers, as the Rams gained just 157 total yards and QB Jared Goff threw for a career-low 78 yards. However, the Rams still rank 6th in passing yards (272.5 YPG) and are averaging 25.5 PPG (11th). The defense has plenty of talent (despite its struggles in 2019) and Los Angeles made three moves this past week to try to address some weaknesses. It acquired star CB Jalen Ramsey from Jacksonville, center Austin Corbett from Cleveland and LB Kenny Young, who came over from Baltimore for CB Marcus Peters.

Atlanta is a mess, as it looks to avoid its FIFTH straight loss. QB Matt Ryan was 30-of-36 for 356 yards and four touchdowns last week but the Falcons lost again, 34-33 at Arizona. Ryan leads the NFL with 15 TD passes and last week joined Kurt Warner and Steve Young as the only players in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards in each of their team’s first six games of a season. However, Atlanta has gone from having one of the better 1-2 rushing tandems in the NFL with Devonta Freeman and Telvin Coleman, to ranking 29th in rushing at 73.5 YPG (just 3.7 YPC). For all of Ryan's passing yards, the Falcons are averaging a modest 22.5 PPG (16th). Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense is awful, allowing 31.0 PPG (31st).

Last year's Super Bowl was played in Atlanta (Rams lost 13-3 to the Pats) but Los Angeles returns to Atlanta as a .500 team with three straight losses, only EIGHT months after their Super Bowl appearance. The Falcons can feel the Rams' pain. Atlanta's 2016 Super Bowl season (blew a 28-3 lead to the Pats) seems like a distant memory, as with four straight losses leaving them at 1-5, the Falcons are well are their way to a second straight losing season (Atlanta is currently, hands down, the NFC South's worst team!).

Atlanta's loss and non-cover at Arizona last Sunday leaves them 4-16 ATS on the road going back to the start of the 2017 season. Yes, the Falcons are more viable at home but in their last home game, they lost 24-10 to the Titans, who have since lost 14-7 at home to the Bills and 16-0 at Denver. I believe the now-desperate Rams can regain their "mojo," after losses to 5-1 Seattle and 5-0 San Francisco. I won't ignore that the Rams are 15-4 SU on the road since McVay took over at the start of the 2017 season and the Falcons are a team in disarray with a head coach (Dan Quinn) on his way out!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos opened 0-4 while averaging a modest 17.5 PPG, while Fangio's defense was yielding 23.3 PPG. The Broncos broke into the win column in Week 5 with a 20-13 at the LA Chargers and then last Sunday back at home vs the Titans, Denver recorded its first seven-sack, three-interception performance in over 25 years in a 16-0 shutout of Tennessee.

Mahomes threw three TDs in the loss to Houston (also threw his first 'pick' of the season) but a second straight loss is worrisome. However, there was some good news, as WR Tyreek Hill made a spectacular return from a five-game absence due to sternum and right collarbone injuries with his NFL-best sixth multi-TD performance since 2017 (5 catches for 80 yards with 2 TD receptions). TE Travis Kelce leads the team with 32 catches and he has torched the Broncos for 762 career receiving yards, his most versus any opponent. I'm not sure Kansas City has done itself any favors by abandoning its 24th-ranked running game (82.7 YPG), as while LeSean McCoy is averaging 5.4 YPC, he only has 258 yards on the season and hasn't carried more than 11 times in ANY game. The KC defense continues to be a concern, allowing 406.2 YPG (27th), including 161.8 YPG on the ground (30th).

The Flacco-led Denver offense is averaging only 17.7 PPG (26th), as the former Super Bowl MVP owns six TD passes, five INTs and a poor QB rating of 87.4. Lindsay (397 yards / 4.7 YPC) and Freeman (284 yards / 4.3 YPC) are decent RBs but the team is averaging only 116.0 YPG on the ground (14th). Denver saw Indy rush for 180 yards against the Chiefs vulnerable rush D and maybe that could work for them, as well. Then again, Vic Fangio dismissed the notion that Indianapolis showed the blueprint on how to defeat Kansas City. "Every game has its own personality to it," Fangio said. "The Colts played well on that day in all three phases of the game and got some critical takeaways that stopped some drives."

Yes, it's a short week for KC (plus the Chiefs will be playing at high altitude) but the Broncos are long-time, familiar division rivals. Here's the rub. The Chiefs have won SEVEN straight over the Broncos, including FOUR in a row at Mile High. The Broncos haven’t yielded a TD in the last nine quarters but Mahomes' 14 TD passes this season are four more than the Broncos have scored as a team. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 17 of of their last 24 games and have 'owned' the Broncos as of late (see above). As for the Broncos, they check in just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 at home. No THREE straight losses for KC, here!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:05 ET.

The Arizona Cardinals visited the Bengals in Week 5 sitting 0-3-1 on the season and hadn't won in Cincinnati in 12 years. What's more, Arizona had won just ONCE in its last 10 games played in the Eastern Time Zone. The good news was, the 0-4 Bengals were in worse shape than the Cards. Rookie QB Kyler Murray put on quite a performance last Sunday, throwing for 253 yards while running for 93 of the team's season-high 266 yards on the ground (he had a TD run). Arizona edged winless Cincinnati 26-23, giving the Cardinals their first win of the season. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan threw for 330 yards to join Steve Young (1998), Kurt Warner (2000), Peyton Manning (2009 and 2013) and Patrick Mahomes (2019) as the only players in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards in each of their team's first five games of a season. However, the Falcons lost 53-32 at Houston, falling to 1-4 on the season (0-3 on the road).

Atlanta has spent a week in the desert after getting beaten at Houston, as the Falcons chose not to fly home after the loss. Instead, Atlanta flew directly from Houston to Phoenix and practiced this past week on Arizona State's campus.Sure, Ryan can put up huge numbers but in a few short seasons, Atlanta has gone from having one of the better 1-2 rushing tandems in the NFL with Devonta Freeman and Telvin Coleman, to ranking 28th in rushing at 67.6 YPG (just 3.7 YPC). Atlanta's defense is a mess (30.4 PPG allowed ranks 31st) and enters this contest having lost two safeties to injury while the team's non-existent pass rush could not sack Deshaun Watson even ONCE last Sunday (Watson had been sacked 18 times through his first four games).

Murray was the first overall pick of the 2019 Draft but so far, he's led an offense that looks great in the middle of the field but has bogged down in the red zone. Arizona ranks eighth in the NFL with 22 scoring drives this season but the problem is that 14 of those drives ended with FGs instead of TDs. However, Murray was superb during the Cardinals' game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter last Sunday, igniting it with a 24-yard pass and running for another 24 yards a few plays later, after his intended receiver slipped. Murray became the first rookie QB since Tennessee's Marcus Mariota in 2015 to throw for 250 yards and run for 90 in a game. He currently leads all first-year QBs in passing yards with 1,324. Arizona's had its issues on defense this season (27.6 PPG ranks 28th) but the Cardinals are tied for the NFL lead with 11 forced fumbles.

The Cardinals got their first taste of winning last Sunday (on the road, no less) and winning is contagious. However, so is losing. The record book tells us that is was just three years ago (the 2016 season), when the Falcons were playing in the Super Bowl and led the Pats 28-3 in the third quarter. However, that seems like 'light years' ago right now. Atlanta has gone 0-3 SU & ATS on the road this season (allowing 36.0 PPG). Going back to the start of the 2017 season, the Falcons have gone 4-15 ATS on the road, which is a 79% ATS "go-against!"

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Oct Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET.

Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 the first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 4-0 (3-1 ATS). A running game, led by unknowns Breida (340 yards / 6.5 YPC) and Mostert (236 yards / 5.8 YPC), leads the NFL in rushing at 200.0 YPG. QB Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't been great but he will enter this game 10-2 as San Francisco's starting QB. Then there is the team's D, which ranks 4th in allowing 14.2 PPG on 257.5 YPG (2nd).

Sean McVay was the offensive coordinator of the Washington Redskins from 2014 to 2016 but was hired by the Rams as their head coach on January 12, 2017. The hiring made him the youngest head coach since the start of the NFL's modern era. His first two seasons were almost entirely positive times (won back-to-back NFC West titles), as the Rams were shockingly good from the very start of his tenure. The Rams steadily improved all the way to the Super Bowl at the end of last season (just McVay's second year). The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but they've lost two straight, 55-40 at home to Tampa Bay and 30-29 at Seattle. In may be just Week 6 but this is a landmark game in the NFC West race (SF is 4-0, Sea 4-1 & LA 3-2).

Almost nothing has gone wrong for Jimmy Garoppolo and the unbeaten 49ers but the team's running game has taken a big hit on the injury front, as both FB Kyle Juszczyk and right tackle Mike McGlinchey are out for about a month with knee injuries, joining left tackle Joe Staley (leg) on the sidelines.Don't dismiss Juszczyk's absence, as he's a devastating lead blocker. As for LA's running game, Todd Gurley, missed the e team's only real practice of the last two weeks Wednesday due to a bruised left thigh. The once-prolific running back's touches are already down sharply this season, and McVay plans to use Malcolm Brown and rookie Darrell Henderson in the backfield against the Niners. Goff is third in the NFL in passing yards (1,649) but has tossed six INTs over his last three games and seven on the season, tied for the second-highest total in the league. He also has just 7 TD passes and an 83.0 QB rating. That's quite a drop-off from the last two seasons, when he owns a 60-19 ratio with QB ratings of 100.5 and 101.1.

Yes, the 49ers are 4-0 with some great stats BUT their wins have come over Tampa Bay, Cincy, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Those teams own a combined 5-15 (.250) record! The Rams are on just the second losing streak of McVay's tenure with back-to-back defeats in which the defense has allowed 85 points! No way LA's defense doesn't show up here, big time. The Rams are 3-0 against the 49ers the last two seasons with Goff starting (did not play in a Week 17 loss back in 2017), averaging 42.7 PPG. In those three games, Goff has thrown for nine TDs with no INTs. Never could have imagined that one could lay three points with the Rams at home vs the 49ers in Week 6 at the start of the season.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The 3-2 Minnesota Vikings have opened the 2019 season alternating wins and losses through their first five games but are hoping to put together back-to-back wins for the first time when they welcome the Philadelphia Eagles to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. The Eagles are also 3-2, after back-to-back wins at Green Bay (34-27) and at home to the winless Jets (31-6). Philadelphia became the first team in NFL history to record 10 sacks and score two defensive TDs in its romp over the injury-riddled Jets. As for Vikings, they won for the first time on the road this season last Sunday at the Giants, gaining a season-high 490 yards.

Carson Wentz has not done much in Philly's consecutive wins (just a total of 349 passing yards) but he has played well in 2019 (60.3% with 10 TDs and just 2 INTs). Philly's running game is averaging a modest 111.8 YPG (17th) but Jordan Howard has four total TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC over the last two games, establishing himself as Philly's lead back (248 RY / 4.7 YPC / 4 TDs). TE Ertz leads the team in catches (29) but WR Agholor has a team-high four TD catches among his 19 receptions. Philly's rush D is No. 1 in the league (63.0 YPG) but the pass D is allowing 271.2 YPG (27th).

Minnesota put some mid-week distractions behind them to dominate the Giants. WR Adam Thielen received an apology from QB Kirk Cousins for several missed throws in Minnesota's 16-6 loss at Chicago on Sep 29 and then went out and delivered season highs in catches (seven), receiving yards (130) and TDs (two) in a 28-10 victory over New York. The Vikes also got 132 yards from RB Dalvin Cook, who has 542 yards on the season on 5.9 YPC with five TDs. Minnesota's 166.4 YPG on the ground ranks 3rd-best in the NFL. QB Kirk Cousins has yet to prove himself since signing that HUGE contract before the 2018 season but he had his best game of 2019 against the Gainst, completing 22 of 27 for 2306 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. He came into the game averaging just 183.8 YPG passing with three TD and two INTs through the first four weeks.

My bet says Minnesota head coach 'learned something' last week. Yes, RB Dalvin Cook looks like a star but Cousins has two outstanding WRs (Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs), who NEED to be a bigger part of the offense. As for Cousins, he owns a career 101.2 passer rating with 17 TD passes in eight career games against the Eagles, whose secondary is decimated with injures to their top four CBs. Philly is averaging 28.2 PPG (7th) but is averaging only 338.2 YPG (24th). That kind of disparity will catch up to them. One last thing. The Vikings are 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less going back to 2015 (that's 77%!).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Week 6 Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET.

The Kansas City Chiefs lost for the first time in 2019 last Sunday night when the Colts beat them 19-13. That loss didn't do the Houston Texans any favors, who were blasting the the Atlanta Falcons 53-32 (Indy's win gives them a 3-2 record, same as Houston). Kansas City was held to a season-low 324 total yards by the Colts, while Houston rolled up a season-high 592 yards against the Falcons. Houston at Kansas City features a matchup of Watson vs Mahomes, who will go head-to-head for the first time since they were selected two picks apart in the 2017 draft (Mahomes was chosen with the 10th overall pick and Watson with the 12th pick).

Watson earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after completing 28-of-33 passes for 426 yards with five TDs and no INTs for a perfect passer rating of 158.3 against the Falcons. However, he's had an up-and-down season. Watson had a QB rating of just 75.3 in Week 5 of a 16-10 home loss to Carolina and in a 13-12 home win over the Jaguars in Week 2, posted a 70.9 QB rating. Watson is getting help from a solid running game averaging 129.4 YPG (10th), which should have success vs a KC rush D allowing 155.8 YPG (30th) on 5.3 YPC (2nd-most in the NFL). However, despite not allowing a single sack vs Atlanta, Houston's OL has allowed the mobile Watson to be sacked 18 times!

Mahomes hasn't gotten much help from his running game (88.6 YPG to rank 25th) but for the most part, it hasn't mattered. KC is No. 1 in the NFL in passing (356.0 YPG) and 4th in scoring (29.6 PPG). Mahomes is completing 65.6% for 1,831 yards with 11 TD passes and not a single INT in 195 attempts (QB rating of 114.7). Mahomes has thrived all season plus it's good news that speedster Tyreek Hill is expected to return for this game.

I have to like this set-up for KC. The Chiefs are coming off an almost inexplicable 13-point effort last Sunday, while Houston was rolling up 53 points. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 17 of of their last 23 games and have won 10 of their last 14 home games by double-digits. As for Houston, the Texans have scored 28, 13, 27, 10 and 53 points in their five games so far in 2019. Chiefs win and do so comfortably.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* SNF Magic is on the Ind Colts at 8:20 ET.

The 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs are one of three undefeated teams in the NFL and host the 2-2 Indianapolis Colts is the SNF Week 5 game. It's a rematch of an AFC Divisional Round matchup last season, when KC defeated the Colts 31-13 (marking KC's first home playoff win in 25 years!). Of course, Andrew Luck was Indy's QB in that one but his abrupt retirement means it will be Jacoby Brissett  going up against Patrick Mahomes.

Truth is, Indianapolis hasn’t fallen off too far offensively with Brissett at the Helm. He's completing 65.2% for 911 yards with 10 TDs and just two INTs (102.1 QB rating). He's also been able to rely on a very improved running game, which ranks 7th by averaging 132.5 YPG on 4.6 YPC. Marlon Mack has been especially effective, rushing for 338 yards (4.7 YPC). Indy's D is middle-of-the-pack and it's hard seeing them slowing down Mahomes, too much. He's completing 67.9% for 1,510 yards with 10 TDs and zero INTs (120.4 QB rating). All this, despite the absence of speedster Tyreek Hill (he returned to practice this week). With or without Hill, Mahomes has plenty of weapons, as SEVEN players have at least eight receptions and FIVE have caught TD passes. However, the KC defense is still vulnerable, allowing 408.5 YPG (30th).

Yes, the Chiefs have scored 25 or more points in an NFL-record 25 consecutive games but their D has allowed 58 points over the last two games. Brissett is much better than many think (he's the only QB with at least two passing TDs in each of his team’s first four contests this season). With Indy's improved running game (see above), expect Mack and Co. to move the ball easily on a KC defense than not only ranks 31st in allowing 149.8 YPG on the ground but ranks LAST in allowing a whopping 6.0 YPC! Indy's two losses have come by a total of 13 points, with one of the defeats occurring in overtime.Take the big points!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 5 Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

The Arizona Cardinals made a huge 4th-quarter comeback in Week 1 at home against the Lions (trailed 24-6) to earn a 27-27 tie. However, the Cards have lost THREE in a row since and at 0-3-1, face another winless team in the 0-4 Bengals on Sunday in Cincinnati. The Bengals also played their best game of the season in Week 1, losing just 21-20 at Seattle despite out-gaining the Seahawks 429-to-232. The Cards come into this contest off a 27-10 home loss to Seattle in Week 4, while the Bengals took a 3-0 lead at Pittsburgh this past Monday night, only to scoreless in the game's final 51 minutes in a 27-3 defeat. Something's gotta give here right?

Last year's Heisman winner Kyler Murray has just four TDs (also four INTs) on the season, while posting a poor 78.8 QB rating. This despite a pair of outstanding WRs. Larry Fitzgerald had five receptions against Seattle to increase his career total to 1,326 and move past Hall-of-Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez for second place on the all-time list. The 36-year-old has made five catches in each of his last three games but could be targeted even more this week,as Christian Kirk (team-high 24 catches) is sidelined with an ankle injury. RB David Johnson is no longer a "fantasy favorite," as he has just 173 rushing yards, although he has added 21 catches with two TDs. The running game ranks 23rd overall, averaging only 92.0 YPG. Arizona's D ranks 29th in allowing 28.8 PPG on 417.0 YPG (31st).

Dalton was sacked a career-high EIGHT times during a 27-3 loss in Pittsburgh on Monday night. His OL is troublesome and Cincy's running game has been almost non-existent (49.5 YPG ranks last in the NFL). A.J. Green will miss his fifth game with an ankle injury suffered during training camp and John Ross (16 catches / 20.5 YPC / 3 TDs) is out due to a shoulder injury. The defense is allowing 27.5 PPG (28th) on 386.2 YPG (23rd)

The Cardinals and Bengals can sure commiserate and both HAVE to realize that each have their best chance yet to get that elusive first win for either of the two first-year head coaches, Kliff Kingsbury (Arizona) or Zac Taylor (Cincinnati). Why bother with either side? The Cardinals haven't won in Cincinnati in 12 years (maybe NOT a big deal) but noting that Arizona has won just ONCE in its last 10 games played in the Eastern Time Zone, is.

Good luck...Larry

My AFC 10* Game of the Year is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET.

The Buffalo Bills opened the season 3-0, before suffering their first loss last Sunday at home, 16-10 to the Pats. Buffalo QB Josh Allen threw three interceptions against New England last week, as the Bills offense did very little. However, the Buffalo D held the defending-champion Patriots to just 224 yards. Brday had just 150 yards passing, was held without a TD pass despite 39 attempts and was interecpeted once (QB rating of 45.9!). Buffalo held the Pats to juts 74 yards rushing (3.2 YPC) and will visit Nashville allowing 15.8 PPG (5th) on 280.8 YPG (2nd). Allen got knocked out of the game on a helmet-to-helmet hit when he failed to slide on a running play and has spent the week in concussion protocol.He had completed 64.1 percent of his passes during the 3-0 start before going 13-of-28 against the Pats. The ageless Frank Gore (he needs 249 rushing yards to pass Barry Sanders and move into third place on the all-time list) ran for 109 yards and the Bills are averaging 147.2 YPG on the ground (4th).

The Titans are coming off three straight nine-win seasons and shocked the Browns (SI's cover team) 43-13 at Cleveland in Week 1. However, the Titans have been searching for consistency for far too long. They lost 19-17 at home to Indy in Week 2 and in Week 3 lost 20-7 at Jacksonville, before winning 24-10 last Sunday in Atlanta. QB Marcus Mariota has been no paragon of consistency but he's completing 62.2% with seven TDs and not a single interception in 119 attempts (106.2 QB rating). Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. The Tennessee D defense returned nine of 11 starters from 2018 and is currently allowing 15.5 PPG (4th) on 337.0 YPG (12th).

The Bills are waiting to see if Josh Allen will be cleared from the concussion protocol and he's listed as questionable. Backup Matt Barkley will start if Allen can't go and would make his first start since last season. He threw for 127 yards coming off the bench in last week's 16-10 loss. Whether it's Allen or Barkley, I'm backing the Titans. I'm still not sold on the Bills and believe that he Titans are a no-frills solid team without any major weaknesses, especially with Marcus Mariota stepping up his play (Mariota is the only quarterback to start every game this season without giving the ball away). The Titans didn’t permit a sack against the Falcons last Sunday (after allowing a league-high 17 sacks through the first three weeks). Now the Titans get back All-Pro offensive left tackle Taylor Lewan, who was suspended the first four games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug.

The Titans are sure to recall losing on a last-second 46-yard FG at Buffalo a year ago in Week 5, a defeat that loomed large, as the Titans lost a playoff berth in their regular-season finale. All teams in the AFC South are 2-2 and the Titans believe that with three of their next four games at home, it's a great opportunity to put together a winning streak. That streak starts right here, with Tennessee's first back-to-back wins of 2019.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has topped 300 passing yards in all four games in 2019 but the Falcons are just 1-3, after losing 24-10 at home last Sunday to the Tennessee Titans. Ryan threw for a season-high 397 yards in in Week 4 but did not throw a TD pass. All season, Atlanta's has lacked any offensive balance, as the running game is averaging just 70.2 YPG on 4.0 YPC, to rank 37th in the league. The defense ranks 8th in yards allowed (32.8 per) but 22nd in points (24.8 PPG). At the moment, Atlanta looks like the worst team in the NFC South and head coach Dan Quinn's seat warms up a little bit more with each loss.

The Texans are one of FOUR teams in the AFC South to enter Week at 2-2. Houston is coming off a lackluster 16-10 home loss to the Carolina Panthers and needs QB Deshaun Watson to "step it up." He passed for only 160 yards vs the Panthers. Watson (65.1%, 938 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT and a QB rating of 99.9) is capable of so much more, especially with a WR like Hopkins (24 catches) and a running game that's been better than average (120.2 YPG on 5.1 YPC), even after losing Lamar Smith. The defense is allowing 19.5 PPG (10th) and the Texans have forced a turnover in 17 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. and one that ranks second in franchise history. Houston is tied for second in league with eight forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries.

Houston really needs this win at home, as FOUR of the team's next five games will be on the road. The good news is that the Falcons set up as the perfect foil. The Falcons are beginning a stretch in which four of their next six games are on the road plus this marks their THIRD straight contest against an AFC South team. The Falcons have lost the first two (at Indy in Week 4 and home to Tennessee in Week 4), falling to 1-12 SU their last 13 vs AFC South opponents. The ATS "clincher" is Atlanta going 4-14 ATS on the road since the start of the 29017 season, a 78% "go-against."

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC West Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

The LA Rams opened 8-0 last season on their way to a Super Bowl appearance against the NE Pats. The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but the team hardly looked as good as it did for most of the 2018 season. The Rams welcomed the Bucs to LA in Week 4 and got blasted, 55-40! Jared Goff set a career high with 517 yards passing but his two TD passes were offset by THREE interceptions and his NFL record-tying 45 completions were a telling sign of LA's one-dimensional offense. Seattle is also off to a 3-1 start in 2019 but its three victories have come against opponents with a combined 1-10-1 record, including a pair of wins by a combined three points!

Rams head coach Sean McVay said after Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown split 10 carries for a combined 30 yards rushing against the Bucs that, "We never really got back into our normal down-and-distance operation, where we could be underneath the center and have some run-pass balance. I think that puts a lot of stress on the quarterback, on the offensive line." WR Cooper Kupp, who went down in Week 10 of 2018 with a knee injury, is back healthy and has 32 catches and an NFC-best 388 yards in four games. Woods has 26 catches and Cooks has 19. The LA defense surely needs a bounce-back effort, after allowing 55 points and yards to the Bucs. Is this the same D which allowed 24.0 PPG on 358.6 YPG in 2018?

Russell Wilson did not put up eye-popping stats against Arizona with 240 yards and a score in the 27-10 win, but he registered his fourth consecutive game with at least a 102.6 QB rating. Wilson is completing 72.9% on the season for 1,141 yards with eight TDs and zero INTs (118.7 QB rating). “I think he’s off to his best start ever,” head coach Pete Carroll said. "I don’t care how big the numbers are, I’m not talking about how many yards or whatever, just his play has been really, really sharp." However, Wilson has not had the luxury of the NFL's top rushing offense like he did in 2018. Seattle averaged a league-high 160.0 YPG (4.8 YPC) in 2018 but is averaging a way more modest 115.0 YPG (4.0 YPC) so far in 2019.

Seattle was fortunate to eke out a one-point home win over Cincinnati in Week 1 (Bengals are currently 0-4) and then in Week 3, lost 33-27 at home to the Brees-less Saints. Seattle entered that game vs the Saints 15-0 in September home games since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, making the Seahawks the ONLY unbeaten team in September during that time frame (so much for that). The once-feared "Legion of Boom" defense is no more and Seattle's home field isn’t as powerful as it once was either, with the Seahawks going just 16-17-2 ATS since 2015 at Century Link Field. The Rams are are in full "bounce-back mode" after allowing 55 points in a two-TD loss at home to the Bucs and it is impossible to ignore that the Rams are 15-3 SU on the road since McVay has taken over. Rams get the 'W' and the cover.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Pit Steelers at 8:15 ET.

As NFL Week 4 comes to close, SEVEN teams remain winless. Two of those winless teams, long-time AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, meet tonight at Heinz Field. Both have opened 0-3, with the Bengals hoping to avoid their first 0-4 start since 2008 and the Steelers looking to avoid losing their first four games for just the SECOND time time since 1968! Neither team has been able to run the ball, with Cincy averaging 41.7 YPG on the ground (32nd) and the Steelers averaging 64.0 YPG (29th). Dalton has  played fairly well for Cincy but the team's D is allowing 27.7 PPG (27th) on 406.3 YPG (28th). With Big Ben out, Pittsburgh is averaging only 16.3 PPG (30th) on 269.3 YPG (30th). More troubling is the fact that the once-vaunted Pittsburgh D is allowing 28.3 PPG (28th) on 442.0 YPG (31st). So where does it leaves us for this game?

Dalton entered Week 4 ranked second in the league with 979 passing yards but it's hard to win when one's rushing game is averaging less than 50 YPG and is averaging only 2.4 YPC. Mason Rudolph made his first career NFL in Week 3 at San Francisco and overcame some early nerves to throw for 174 yards and a pair of second-half TDs. The Steelers actually had the ball and the lead late in the fourth quarter before James Conner's fumble set up San Francisco for the winning TD with just 1:15 left in the game, denying Rudolph his first win as an NFL starter. .

Someone will be 0-4 after this game (barring a tie) and I can't see NOT playing the Steelers in this one. After all, Pittsburgh has won EIGHT straight (including a wild card win at Cincy in 2015) and 11 of its last 12 against Cincinnati. The average margin of victory in Pittsburgh's three home wins over Cincinnati in that stretch is 8.7 PPG. Considering the line, Pittsburgh deserves a top-rating of 10*s.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SNF Magic Play is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.

The Dallas Cowboys fought all off-season with RB Elliott but he signed late and Dallas entered the season with lofty aspirations. The Cowboys have opened 3-0 SU and ATS, having eclipsed 30 points in each of their three victories. QB Dak Prescott has been outstanding, completing 74.5% for 920 yards with nine TDs and two INTs. His QB rating of 128.0 is second to only Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes. Elliott has 289 yards rushing (5.3 YPC) for a run game that is averaging 179.0 YPG (3rd-best in the NFL). The Cowboys will visit 2-1 New Orleans fro Sunday Night Football, with the Saints coming off an impressive 33-27 victory at Seattle behind backup QB Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater was 19 of 27 for 177 yards with 2 TDs and zero INTs in first 'real' start since 2015 (I'm not counting his Week 17 start in 2018, playing with "the scrubs").

Prescott's been terrific and WR Amari Cooper,has 16 catches and four TD catches. As for Elliott, he's posted back-to-back 100-yard games. However, the schedule-makers have been VERY kind to Dallas these first three weeks. Dallas hosted the defensively-challenged NY Giants (31.3 PPG on 460.3 YPG) in Week 1, won at sad-sack Washington (allowing 31.3 PPG, as well) in Week 2 and then beat pathetic Miami last week (0-3 & 0-3 ATS, scoring an NFL-low 5.3 PPG and allowing an NFL-high 44.3 PPG).

With Brees sidelined following thumb surgery, New Orleans put the ball in the hands of its best offensive player and Alvin Kamara responded by rushing for 69 yards and a touchdown and catching nine passes for 92 yards a score. Teddy Bridgewater should be even better with another week of reps and expect more from top-flight WR Michael Thomas (25 receptions), who scored his first TD of the season last week. However, the Saints D has to get better. New Orleans has allowed 27 points for the third straight week and checks in allowing 27.3 PPG (26th) on 436.0 YPG (29th).

It's hard to quote historical numbers for New Orleans, without Brees at QB. However, I sure love the small home underdog in this one. The Cowboys haven't been REMOTELY tested as of yet (see above for a reminder) and winning a SNF road game at this venue is a 'bridge too far.'

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 4 Las Vegas Insider is on the Den Broncos at 4:25 ET.

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos have opened 0-3 while averaging 15.3 PPG (30th) plus their defense is a so-so 17th in points allowed (22.3 PPG). Even more troubling, Denver doesn't have a SINGLE sack through three games. Is that even possible with Von Miller & Bradley Chubb?

Heading to Denver will be the 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville lost 10 of its final 12 games to finish 5-11 in 2018 and QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door." The Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract in the off-season but he was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. Rookie Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC in Week 1 and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. However, The Jags were impressive in their 20-7 home win on a Thursday night Week 3 game Minshew threw two 1st-quarter TDs and the Jags never looked back. The D took over from there, as Marcus Mariota was sacked NINE times.

Will the Jags' voracious pass rush be too much for Flacco, who doesn't seem to be too much of an upgrade (if at all) from Case Keenun? Is "Minshewmania" for real? After all, it's difficult to ignore this factoid. Minshew has posted a 73.9 completion percentage and 110.6 rating, both of which are the highest marks by a rookie over his first three career games in the Super Bowl era. He can join Mark Rypien as the only players in league history with a rating of at least 95 in each of their first four career contests.

It's true that Denver is in danger of approaching its worst stretch (8-23 SU last 31!) since the days of the old AFL in the mid 1960s. However, let's not be too quick to bury the Broncos just yet. Jacksonville was in dire straits in Week 3 (at 0-2) and was able to play VERY well at home. I see that same scenario working for 0-3 Denver at home in Week 4. Playing at "Mile High" has always meant a lot to the Broncos, especially early in the season when opponents aren’t in shape to deal with high altitude. Is it possible to ignore this? Denver entered its Week 2 game vs the Bears on a 13-game home winning streak in September, before losing a controversial 16-14 contest on 53-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock! It's was Jacksonville's 'day in the sun' in Week 3 (actually, it was a night game but you get the point) and it's Denver's 'day in the sun' (literally, as the forecast is sunny and in the mid 80s) on Sunday.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

Cam Newton is sidelined indefinitely by a Lisfranc injury in his foot, so the Carolina Panthers will give QB Kyle Allen his second straight start. The second-year player got the job done last week, going 19-of-26 for 261 yards with four touchdowns and zero interception in a 38-20 win at Arizona, Carolina’s first victory of the season. The Texans are 2-1 and just one defensive stop (and a 58-yard FG) away from being undefeated. However, in all fairness, they’re also just a couple plays away from being winless, as all three of Houston's games have been decided by seven points or less.

I'm not sure the Panthers are counting on or waiting for, Cam Newton to snap out of his malaise. The bigger question right now is, can Newton even play anymore given his various injuries? Newton had zero TD throws and just five rushing attempts in two games before missing this past Sunday. As for this game, we'll see if Allen is no more than a backup QB or is he not ready for primetime. We KNOW McCaffrey is ready. He had a breakout season in 2018 (his second), rushing for 1,098 yards (5.0 YPC) with seven TDs, while catching 107 passes for 867 yards with six more TDs. After three games in 2019, he's got 318 yards rushing (5.4 YPC) and three TDs plus 15 catches for 132 yards.

Houston’s offense has been inconsistent, scoring 28 points, then 13 and then 27. However, QB Deshaun Watson has been steady, completing 65.6 percent for 778 yards with six TDs and only one interception. Watson has a solid receiving corps led by DeAndre Hopkins (19 catches), but after the RB duo Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson (replacing the injured Lamar Smith) performed well in Weeks 1 & 2, Houston ran for just 39 yards against San Diego. The defense was torched by Drew Brees in a 30-28 Week 1 loss but has played much better the last two weeks, allowing just 32 points. Outstanding pass rushers J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus may give Allen "all he wants, and more!"

Is Allen really a better 'fit' for the Panthers? That's hard to say but let's note that the Panthers come into this game just 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS over their last 11 games. The two wins came last week at Arizona (3-13 in 2018 and 0-2-1 to open 2019) and the Saints in Week 17 of 2018, when Brees and the starters sat. Is anyone confident that Allen is up to the challenge of out-dueling Watson and a team that is 13-6 with a healthy Watson starting at QB since the beginning of last year!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 10:00 ET.

The Colts opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returned to Lucas Oil Stadium in Week and held on to beat the Falcons, 27-24. The Colts are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. The sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts. Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck but he was superb against the Falcons, completing his first 16 attempts while finishing 28-of-37 for 310 yards and two TDs. The 1-2 Oakland Raiders visit Indy on a two-game losing streak. The Raiders opened the season with a 24-16 home win over the Broncos(who are 0-3) but have followed with a 28-10 home loss to the Chiefs (Raiders led 10-0) and a 34-14 road loss at Minnesota.

Jon Gruden's "second go-round" as Oakland's head coach has not gone smoothly. The Raiders were 4-12 in 2018 and now 1-2 to open 2019. The offense is averaging only 16.0 PPG (29th) on 322.0 YPG (27th), while the defense allows 26.0 PPG (23rd) on 405.0 YPG (26th). Two players have made their marks early on for Oakland, TE Darren Waller and rookie RB (Ala) Josh Jacobs. Waller had career bests of 13 receptions and 134 yards last week and leads all players at his position and ranking second overall in the NFL with 26 receptions. Josh Jacobs tops all rookies with 228 rushing yards. However, Oakland's early season schedule is a 'killer' (more in just a bit).

Brissett is completing 71.7% of his passes with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 112.0), while RB N\Marlon Mack (299 yards / 4.9 YPC) leads a running game that averages a healthy 149.7 YPG (6th). Indy's defense heads into Sunday's game against Oakland ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards rushing, yards passing and total yards allowed plus only six teams have fewer takeaways than the Colts' three. However, the Colts have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in any of the team's last 21 contests.

The Raiders will go straight from Indianapolis to London, where they will spend the week practicing before a "home" game against Chicago. Oakland is in the midst of a stretch that features 48 days between games at the Oakland Coliseum, with four road games, one off week, and the trip to London. This week marks the second of FIVE straight games that start at 10 a.m. PT and Oakland has lost SEVEN straight in the early Sunday time slot. Want more? Oakland is just 3-14 SU and 4-12-1 ATS on the road (a 75% "go-against") since the team made the playoffs in 2016 with a 12-4 record. Those 14 SU losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 15.9 PPG. Has Gruden helped things? He's 1-8 SU on the road (in going 1-7 last year, the Raiders scored a league-low 12.7 points per game on the road), as the Raiders have been outscored by 137 points in their last nine away games. Switching back to the Colts, they lost first two home games last season but have reeled off SEVEN straight wins, the second-longest active streak behind New England (15). Last Sunday's 27-24 win also marked the NINTH in a row at home in which the Colts have scored at least 23 points. That's tied for the league's third-longest streak with the LA Rams and behind New England (13) and Kansas City (12). There's little doubt among the players that the noise and atmosphere of Lucas Oil Stadium have helped. I agree. Colts wish the Raiders well in their travels to London, sending them away with another double-digit loss. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Thursday Showdown is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET.

The Green Bay Packers fired longtime head coach Mike McCarthy late last season and gave 39-year-old Matt LaFleur his first head coaching job. So far, so good. The Packers are one of SEVEN teams to open 2019 at 3-0 (note: 136 of the 180 teams or 75.5 percent to start 3-0 have made the playoffs since 1980). The Packers are seeking their first 4-0 start in four years when they host the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles, who won the Super Bowl in the 2017 season, check in at just 1-2, with the two loses coming by a combined SEVEN points. Here's a stat the Eagles won't like. Only one team in the Super Bowl era, the 2001 New England Patriots, started the season 1-3 and rebounded to win it all.

The Eagles rallied from a 17-0 deficit in Week 1 against Washington to take a 32-20 lead. However, Washington scored with six seconds left to make it a 32-27 and a non-cover for Philly. The Eagles followed that Week 1 win with back-to-back games at Atlanta (24-20) and at home to Detroit (27-24).Head coach Doug Pederson canceled practice one day last week due to the number of injuries on the team but the receiving corps will get a boost with the return of Alshon Jeffery after he sat out Sunday's contest due to a calf strain. DeSean Jackson remains sidelined with an abdominal strain but Nelson Agholor has been a pretty good "fill in," with 18 catches and three TDs on the season. TE Zach Ertz has a team-high 17 receptions but has yet to find the end zone. Carson Wentz clearly needs more help from his running game, which is averaging 99.7 YPG (17th) on 3.6 YPC. The Philly pass D is a mess, surrendering 293.7 YPG (29th), with the pass rush recorded only two sacks in three games.

However, who could have imagined a Rodgers-led offense ranking 28th in total yards (286.7 YPPG), including 197.2 YPG passing (27th)? That's the case though, as the Packers check in scoring only 19.3 PPG (23rd). "We've never wanted to just manage the football game around here, so the standards are very high for us," Aaron Rodgers said. "We gotta play a lot better on offense. We've played some good defenses, no doubt about it, but the standard and the expectations are very high here and we haven't met them on offense. ... At some point, we can't expect our defense to shut everybody down. They have been. But at some point the offense is going to have to wake up and start making some plays." Defense has been the key to Green Bay's 3-0 start, holding opponents to 11.7 PPG (2nd-best in the NFL).

Wentz is completing 61.0% for 803 yards with six TDs and two INTs, which isn't bad. As noted already, he's NOT getting much help from his running game plus Wentz had EIGHT of his passes dropped against the Lions, including a deep ball to J.J. Arcega-Whiteside that could've been the go-ahead score in the final minute. A week earlier, Nelson Agholor dropped what could've been a go-ahead 60-yard TD with under two minutes left in a 24-20 loss at Atlanta. Philly could be 3-0, instead of 1-2. The Packers are not just 3-0 but also 3-0 ATS but I'm not convinced the Packers are a better team than the Eagles. Matt LaFleur may be 3-0 but Doug Pederson is a Super Bowl-winning coach and a 1-3 Philly start would put his team in "crisis-mode" before Oct 1. The Eagles are 0-3 ATS and Green Bay 3-0 ATS but that changes here. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Monday Night Madness is on the Was Redskins at 8:15 ET.

The Chicago Bears' defense (17.7 PPG allowed was an NFL-best) helped them win the NFC North last year at 12-4. Chicago's D has opened the current season allowing just 12.0 PPG but the team's offense has been absolutely pathetic, averaging 9.5 PPG to rank 31st of 32 teams! Chicago lost 10-3 at home to the Packers in Week 3 and then eked out a 16-14 win at Denver in Week 2. The Washington Redskins have opened 0-2, losing 32-27 at Philly and 31-21 at home to Dallas. Washington's defense has allowed 31.5 PPG (2nd-most in the league) on 455.0 YPG (3rd-highest total). It will be a QB 'battle' of Trubisky vs Keenum, not exactly a replay of Luckman vs Baugh in the 1940 NFL championship game (note: Bears famously won that won 73-0!).

Trubisky (58.3% for 348 yards without a TD pass and one INT for a 65.0 QB rating so far in 2019) was the "controversial" No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft but has led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions this season. Chicago's lone TD came on a 1-yard-run by David Montgomery last week and the team is averaging only 99.5 YPG on the ground (18th). That is hardly good enough when Trubisky ranks near the bottom of the league at 4.8 yards a completion. The defense is still impressive but....Washington QB Case Keenum has limited offensive 'weapons' but he's played well against two quality teams, Philly and Dallas. Keenum is completing 69.1% for 601 yards with five TDs, zero INTs and a QB rating of 111.2. Of course, the defense is a concern but Chicago's "O" may be "just what the doctor ordered" for Washington's "stop-unit." Is it fair to call Washington's D a stop unit?

Chicago is VERY lucky to be 1-1, as PK Eddie Pineiro bailed them out by making a 53-yard FB at the gun last week in Denver. Mitchell Trubisky has so far "taken a step back" in his third season and laying points on the road (no less on Monday night), seems like 'a bridge too far!' Jay Gruden's team has gone 6-2 ATS since the start of last year when his team was playing with a healthy starting QB. Keenum's healthy AND he's played very well. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET.

The Los Angeles Chargers needed OT to against the Colts in Week 1 to escape with a 30-24 win. LA is back at home on Sunday, looking to bounce back from a mistake-filled 13-10 loss at Detroit in Week 2. LA's miscues were personified by a third-quarter drive during which it had two TDs nullified and saw running back Austin Ekeler lose a fumble at the one-yard line. The Houston Texans visit The StubHub Center in Carson, Ca 1-1 as well, having lost at New Orleans 30-28 in Week 1 on a 58-yard FG as time expired but then surviving a failed two-point conversion try by the Jaguars in Houston at home in Week 2, eking out a 13-12 victory.

Houston QB Deshaun Watson was terrific in Week 1 at New Orleans, passing for 268 yards (3 TDs, 1 INT and 114.3 QB rating) plus rushing for 40 yards and a fourth TD. However, as the Texans have seen too often, he passed for just 159 yards against Jacksonville (0 TDs, 0 INTs and a 70.9 rating), while rushing for just FIVE yards. The Texans were thought to be in big trouble when RB Lamar Smith was lost in the preseason but Hyde (173 yards / 5.8 YPC) and Johnson (88 yards / 5.9 YPC) have surprised, with Houston averaging 153.0 YPG on the ground (5th), on 5.8 YPC. One would think the team's solid running game would be a HUGE plus for Watson but the Texans have yet to shore up their NFL-worst pass protection. Watson has been sacked 10 times in the season's first two weeks.

Philip Rivers (the 4th pick of the 2004 draft) will make his 209th consecutive start on Sunday, tying him with Eli Manning for the second-longest QB starting streak in NFL history. It's ironic that it comes in a week in which Manning, who was the No. 1 pick in the 2004 draft, was benched by the Giants for rookie Daniel Jones. Another alum from that 2004 draft, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (the No. 11 overall selection), will miss the rest of the season with an elbow injury suffered last week against Seattle. Meanwhile, Rivers just keeps chugging along. He's topped 4,000 passing in 10 of his last 11 seasons, throwing between 26 and 34 TD passes per year in that stretch plus has posted QB ratings of over 100 in FIVE of the 11. He's got a 377-to-180 TD-to-INT ratio for his career, after throwing 60 TDs with just 22 INTs the last two seasons. The Chargers were also expected to have running game issues with Melvin Gordon's holdout but Austin Ekeler has 287 yards from scrimmage (124 rushing, 163 receiving) and Justin Jackson is averaging an amazing 8.9 YPC while adding 116 yards rushing.

The small MLS venue in Carson (30,000 capacity) has never provided the Chargers with much of a home edge since the move from San Diego (6-10-1 ATS) but LA's top pass-rushers, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram could be huge difference-makers in this one, as Watson has been sacked at least FOUR times in EIGHT straight games. The Chargers had 424 yards at Detroit last Sunday but scored just 10 points, as two TDs were nullified by penalties (9 penalties in all for 70 yards). Throw in two TOs (one at the Lions' one-yard line) plus two missed FGs and you can see why. DO NOT expect a repeat performance.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 4:05 ET.

The 0-2 NY Giants head to Tampa to take on the 1-1 Bucs this Sunday but Eli Manning will NOT be the Giants staring QB come kickoff. Manning, a two-time Super Bowl MVP, has been New York's starting QB since the 10th game of 2004, Manning's rookie season.He has started all but ONE game for the Giants since the start of the 2005 season but is 8-25 over the past three years.Sure, there's plenty of blame to go around but it's understandable that the Giants are making a change at the NFL's most important position. Daniel Jones was drafted in the first round with the sixth overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft. He'll square off against Jameis Winston, who was drafted as the first overall pick by the Buccaneers in the 2015 NFL Draft.

The Giants are averaging 420.0 YPG (6th) but have not turned those yards into points, averaging only 15.5 PPG (27th). The first order of business for the 6-5 rookie from Duke will be to do just that.Jones completed 29-of-34 passes for 416 yards and two touchdowns during some impressive preseason play. He has one of the NFL's most versatile RBs in the NFL to help out, as Saquon Barkley ranks second in the NFL with 227 rushing yards and owns an eye-popping 7.8 yards per attempt. TE Evan Engram was Eli's top target (17 catches / 1 TD) but it's great news that WR Sterling Shepard (190 catches his first three seasons with 14 TDs) has cleared the concussion protocol over the course of this week and avoided an injury designation on Friday.

Bruce Arians is a highly-respected head coach and it will be interesting to see if he can "fix" Jameis Winston. Winston was awful in a Week 1 home loss to the 49ers (194 passing yards with 1 TD and 3 INTs and a QB rating of 45.4). Two of his INTs were returned for TDs! That said, in Week 2 at Carolina (a 20-13 Bucs win), he played a mistake-free game with 208 yards, one TD and zero INTs, for a QB rating of 103.4). However, Winston's consistency is his inconsistency. He can be a turnover 'machine.' He's not getting much help from Tampa's running game so far in 2019, which is averaging 111.5 YPG on 3.9 YPC.

Here's the bottom line. Winston's inconsistency has made the Bucs a very poor home favorite during Winston's tenure, checking in at 6-12 ATS since 2015. The Giants have won FOUR of the last five meetings in the regular season against Tampa Bay, including a 38-35 triumph at home last year in which Barkley ran for 142 yards and scored three times. Yes, the Giants went 8-24 SU in 2017 and 2018 but note that after losing and failing to cover at Dallas in Week 1 of 2018, the Giants finished the season with SEVEN straight covers as a road dog, before opening 2019 at Dallas in Week 1 of 2019 with a 35-17 loss (as a 7-point dog). Digging a little deeper, let me point out that since the start of the 2017 season, the Giants are 11-5 ATS as a road underdog, with THREE of those ATS losses coming at Dallas. Eliminate the hated-Cowboys and the Giants are 11-2 ATS as road dogs against the rest of the league. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.

Falcons head coach Dan Quinn denies he's on the "hot seat" in Atlanta but I'm pretty sure he's mighty glad that Matt Ryan drove the Falcons 75yards in just over a minute to what turned out to be the game-winning TD with 2:10 left in last Sunday night's game vs the Eagles. The Falcons avoided an 0-2 start but now travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts and if history is any guide, winning will not come easy.The Falcons have won just TWICE (in 16 meetings) in a series that began back in Atlanta's expansion year of 1966. That may not be all that relevant but I'll add some current trends later, that are. The Colts have opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returns to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time since Aug 24, when fans booed as Andrew Luck left the field before announcing his retirement (real classy move!).

Atlanta's once-feared offense is averaging a modest 18.0 PPG (23rd) and QB Ryan, who had just SEVEN interceptions all of 2018 (608 attempts), already has FIVE after two games (89 attempts),including TWO in the red zone. Atlanta's rushing game is adding just 65.0 YPG (28th), as Devonta Freeman has run for only 41 yards (2.2 YPC) in two games, with no run longer than nine. Atlanta's rush D was gashed on the road by the Vikings in Week 1 (172 yards), in game Atlanta trailed 28-0 into the fourth quarter (final was 28-12). The Falcons are allowing 24.0 PPG (23rd) after two games.

The sudden and unexpected retirement of Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts, who could easily be 2-0 to start 2019. OK, Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew luck, throwing for just 336 yards after two games. However, he's completing 69.1% and has five TD passes and just one INT. The big news in Indy is the strength of the team's OL and its running game. Marlon Mack ranks No. 3 among all RBs with 225 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and the Colts are tied with the Vikings as the NFL's second-best rushing team (185.0 YPG on 5.5 YPC). Indy's D is so-so but Atlanta lacks a running game and Ryan has always been a much better QB at home, than on the road.

Indy, like the Vikings, should be able to control the tempo of the game by running and as noted, Brissett has been a playmaker. I could point to the fact that the Falcons are on a 1-8 ATS run as a road underdog but since the Colts are barely favored, I'll rely more on the fact the the Falcons are a 'money-burning' 4-13 ATS (that's a 76% "go-against") on the road since the start of the 2017 season. I was "all over" the Vikings against the Falcons in Week 1 and then had Atlanta in its SNF win in Week 2. I make it THREE in a row with Atlanta games this season by taking the Colts in Week 3.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC South Game of the Month is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET.

The Jacksonville Jaguars welcome the Tennessee Titans to TIAA Bank Field for an AFC South showdown on Thursday night with the NFL Network carrying the game. It's hard to believe that it was only January of 2018 when the Jags led the Pats by 10 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter of the AFC championship game. We all know the Pats scored a pair of TDs in that 4th quarter to win 24-20 and in effect, the Jags have imploded since. Jacksonville did open the 2018 season 3-1 (including a home rout of the Pats) but the Jags would lose 10 of their final 10 games to end the season at 5-11. QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door" and the Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract. He was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle.

The Titans are coming off three straight nine-win seasons. They shocked the Browns (SI's cover team) 43-13 at Cleveland in Week 1 but missed a great opportunity to open 2-0 by losing 19-17 at home to the Colts when their offense generated only 242 yards. Tennessee doesn’t have superstars but the Titans don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. Offensively, a lot of the Titans success will come down to Mariota simply staying healthy. Tennessee made several moves in an effort to upgrade the protection around him, giving a $44 million contract to free agent left guard Rodger Saffold and drafting guard Nate Davis in the third round.The Titans have upgraded Mariota’s receiving corps, adding slot-option Adam Humphries, rookie wideout A.J. Brown and getting tight end Delanie Walker back from an ankle injury that sidelined him most of last season. RB Derrick Henry showed how dominant he can be by rushing for 585 yards and scoring seven TDs during the final four games.

Rookie QB Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. Tennessee's pass D ranks second in the NFL (182.5 YPG) and the team's 16.0 PPG allowed ranks 6th. Minshew and the struggling Jacksonville offense will have its work cut out.

Mariota has passed for a modest 402 yards but he has four TDPs and zero INTs in 52 attempts (112.8 QB rating). Rookie WR Brown is averaging 20.8 YPC on his six catches plus now-healthy TE Walker has nine catches and two TDs. RB Henry has 165 yards (4.9 YPC) and two TDs. The Titans have won each of the last four meetings with the Jags, holding them to just 10.3 PPG. With a visit to Atlanta coming up in Week 4, the Titans NEED this one. Expect them to get it.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* SNF Magic Play is on the Atl Falcons at 8:20 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles fell behind the Redskins 17-0 in Week 1 at home in the early 2nd quarter and trailed 20-7 at the half. However, Philly scored the game's next 25 points, before Washington was able to add a "concession TD" with six seconds left for the 'cover!' Philly visits Atlanta for Week 2's Sunday Night Football contest, as the Falcons look to avert an 0-2 start for the first time since 2007. Atlanta was steamrolled at Minnesota last Sunday, falling behind 28-0. Matt Ryan was intercepted twice and sacked four times to put the Falcons in a sizable hole. He did throw two, 4th-quarter TD passes in the 28-12 loss.

Philly QB Carson Wentz looked to be in mid-season form, throwing for 313 yards and three TDs. DeSean Jackson caught two of those TDs, among his eight catches for 154 yards. Philly may have the deepest set of RBs in the league, with off-season acquisition Jordan Howard (over 3,300 rushing yards the L3 years with the Bears) joining veteran Darren Sproles and Penn St rookie Miles Sander. However, the Eagles finished 30th against the pass last season and showed no signs of improvement in Week 1, as Washington's Case Keenum threw for 380 yards against a suspect secondary that didn't get much help from the pass rush.

Atlanta had problems with both its offensive and defensive lines at Minnesota. The Falcons OL allowed 42 sacks and 108 QB hits in 2018 (gave up four sacks vs Minnesota) plus the DL gave up 172 rushing yards and three TDs vs the Vikes. Ryan has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 16 consecutive contests and with WRs Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley he has talented targets. Then there is TE Austin Hooper, who reeled in a team-leading nine catches in Week 1.

The Falcons have lost to the Eagles each of the last three seasons, averaging just 12.3 points in those games. However, all three of  the games were in Philadelphia and the last two times the Falcons were near the goal line with multiple chances to win. The Eagles have given up an average of  eight more points and 66 more yards per game on the road that at home during the past three years, while Matt Ryan had an 118.0 QB rating at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, compared to 99.7 on the road last season. Dan Quinn has brushed off any suggestion that he's starting to feel some heat but he has now lost 11 of his last 18 games going back to the playoffs at the end of the 2017 season. I doubt Quinn and Atlanta will ever 'live down' squandering a 28-3 lead to New England in the Super Bowl but Atlanta NEEDS this one and it's only a Week 2 game. I'm taking the home team.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET.

It may be nearly nine months ago since the Saints were done in by one of the more controversial no-calls in NFL playoff history but it seems like "just yesterday" to New Orleans and its fans. The blatant pass interference on CB Nickell Robey-Coleman late in regulation was missed by referees and it is still being discussed. The non-call forced New Orleans to settle for a field goal and eventually, the Rams beat the Saints 26-23 in overtime in last year's NFC Championship Game. It sent the Rams, not the Saints, to the Super Bowl. The non-call also prompted the NFL to change its replay review rules in the off-season, although many Saints fans still haven't stopped complaining about it. The two teams square off in Week 2, with both coming off close Week 1 wins. Drew Brees passed for 370 yards and two TDs but needed to lead a last-gasp drive that led to the Saints' game-winning, 58-yard FG with 0:00 time left (30-28). The Rams jumped out to a 13-0 lead at Carolina last Sunday but needed to hang on for a 30-27 victory.

RB Alvin Kamara will be the Saints featured back in 2019 (with Ingram gone) and he ran for 97 yards and had 72 receiving yards in Week 1, giving every indication he's up to the task. Meanwhile, Michael Thomas was Brees' top target with 10 catches for 123 yards. Jared Goff wasn’t all that sharp in LA's 30-27 win at Carolina (23-39 186 yards with one TD and one iNT), after just signing a huge contract. However, some good news was Woods hauling in eight passes and Kupp catching seven balls. As for RB Todd Gurley, concerns about his apparently balky knee looked fairly unfounded in the Rams' opener, as he rushed for 97 yards (6.9 YPC) and looked dangerous. Teammate Brooks ran for 53 yards and scored two TDs.

I get the feeling "most" will be on the Saints in this one and the week-long line move seems to bear that out. However, the Rams averaged 37.3 PPG at home last season and one should NOT ignore the Saints' "close call" in Week 1, as it has become a pattern. Going back to the start of the 2014 season, the Saints enter this contest 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS (that's 91% "go-against") in the first two games of the season these past five-plus years. Bet on it!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 2 Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET.

Sean McDermott got the Buffalo head coaching job in 2017 and ended a 17-year postseason drought for the franchise by going 10-6 in his first season to earn a wild card berth. However, the Bills regressed in 2018, going 6-10. Buffalo surprised most by going 4-0 in the 2019 preseason and then the Bills beat the Jets 17-16 at MetLife Stadium in Week 1. Buffalo allowed the first 16 points in its season opener before rallying in the second half to earn the one-point victory.Josh Allen orchestrated a pair of TD drives in the fourth quarter, scoring on a 3-yard scramble to get the Bills within 16-10, before connecting with John Brown for a 38-yard TD with three minutes remaining. Allen's late heroics helped atone for his earlier play, as he became the first NFL quarterback to commit four turnovers (two interceptions, two fumbles) in a victory since 2013.

The Bills return to MetLife Stadium looking for their first 2-0 start since 2014 to take on the Giants, who are trying to avoid a sixth 0-2 start since 2013. The Giants, like the Bills, delivered a 4-0 preseason. However, they were not up to the challenge of slowing down Dallas QB Dak Prescott in Week 1, as he threw for 405 yards and four TDs (zero INTs). Dallas jumped out early against the Giants and led 35-10 into the fourth quarter, with the Giants scoring with just over two minutes left in the game for the 35-17 final.

Which Josh Allen will we see on Sunday? The one who played so poorly for most of the game, or that one which led the 4th-quarter comeback. As for the Giants, Eli threw for 306 yards (1 TD / 0 INTS) plus Barkley added 120 yards rushing (10.9 YPC), but the Giants trailed by 25 points as the 2-minute warning approached. Buffalo as a road favorite? The Bills have been favored on the road just EIGHT times over their last 50 games, going 2-6 ATS in those rare occurrences .Daniel Jones is 'looking over Eli's shoulder' (and the fans are likely behind tat move) but I'm betting the vet can earn a win here against an improving but "not there just yet" Buffalo team.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

Both the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers did not play well in Week 1 but at the least the Seahawks picked up a win.Seattle escaped with a 21-20 home win over teh Bengals, despite getting nearly doubled up in yardage (429-233) and allowing the Bengals to control the ball for nearly 36 minutes. Russell Wilson was 14-of-20 for 196 yards and two scores in the opener (no INTs) but Seattle was able to run for just 72 yards (2.9 YPG), after leading the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 160.0 YPG. The offense gained only 232 yards with 12 FDs. Seattle's defense allowed 429 yards (22 FDs), as Andy Dalton completed 68.7 percent for 418 yards with two TDs and zero INTs.

Seattle's "rough outing" was a 'walk in the park' compared to what Pittsburgh experienced last Sunday night in Foxborough. The Pats opened a 20-0 halftime lead and cruised to a 33-3 win. New England outgained Pittsburgh 465-308, as Brady passed for 341 yards and three TDs. Big Ben threw 47 times, completing 27 for 276 yards and never got the Steelers into the end zone. The Pittsburgh running game gained just 32 yards on 2.5 YPG.

Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger engaged in a high-octane shootout the last time they shared the field, with Wilson passing for 345 yards and five TDs in a 39-30 home win. Roethlisberger passed for 456 yards but just one score. However, that was back in 2015. Here's what matters in this Week 2 meeting in 2019. The Steelers are 8-1 SU after losses by at least 20 points during Roethlisberger's 15-plus years in the league, while the Seahawks have made a habit of starting slow the last four-plus seasons. Seattle is now 3-6 SU the first two weeks of the season since the start of 2015, while going 0-8-1 ATS. That's a 100% "go-against!" Pittsburgh puts last Sunday night's debacle behind it with a CONVINCING win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC West Game of the Month is on the Oak Raiders at 10:20 ET.

The Broncos went 5-11 & 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Raiders made it to the Super Bowl in 2002 (lost to Tampa Bay and Jon Gruden) but have since had just ONE winning season in the last 15. Ironically, Jon Gruden was hired away from the TV booth to resurrect the team last season but that hardly went well, as Oakland finished 4-12 The Raiders went 3-1 in the preseason but the month of August was dominated by disgruntled wide receiver Antonio Brown.

It appeared that the Raiders were going to suspend Brown before he delivered an emotional apology to teammates Friday, when the club changed course and said he would play Monday. However, Brown posted "release me" Saturday on Instagram and Oakland complied after an tumultuous training camp and a heated exchange with 1st-year GM Mike Mayock. The Raiders released Brown two days prior to tonight's season opener. To add "insult to injury," Brown immediately signed with the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots.

That's the back story. Here in 2019, the Broncos and Raiders are expected to battle for 3rd 7 4th-place in the division (Chiefs are the clear favorite with the Chargers a legitimate threat and strong wild card contender). Joe Flacco is Denver's latest starting QB and I have NO faith he's got much of anything left. He burst on the scene to lead the Ravens to the playoffs in each of his 1st five years and in 2012, led Baltimore to the championship. Flacco had a "Montana-like" postseason in 2012, passing for 1,140 yards in four wins with 11 TD & 0 INTs (117.2 QB rating). His timing was just right, as on March 4, 2013, he became the highest-paid QB in NFL history when he signed a six-year contract worth $120.6 million (that has long-since be surpassed). However, after posting a 54-26 record as a starter through his first five seasons Flacco was just 42-41 as a starter the L6 seasons. A hip injury during a Wk 9 loss in 2018 saw Flacco replaced by rookie Lamar Jackson, who led the Ravens to a 6-1 finish. In February 2019, the Ravens agreed to trade Flacco to the Denver Broncos in exchange for their 4th-round pick in the 2014 draft. BTW... Jackson threw for 324 yards & 5TD passes in Baltimore's 59-10 Week 1 win.

Without Brown, Tyrell Williams will likely emerge as the marquee WR for Oakland, as he makes his club debut after catching 153 passes and scoring 16 TDs over the last three seasons with the Chargers. Oakland selected running back Josh Jacobs with the 24th overall pick and hope the former Alabama star can improve a ground game that was 25th in the league in each of the last two seasons, while taking pressure off QB Derek Carr.The Raiders made protecting Carr a bigger priority this season after he was sacked a career-worst 51 times last year. Let's not be too quick to forget. Carr barely missed throwing for 4,000 yards in 2015 and 2016 (3,900-plus) and featured a 60-19 TD-to-INT ratio. Despite getting sacked 51 times in 2018, he threw for 4,049 yards with 19 TDs and just 10 INTs in 553 attempts!

You may read the following and get nervous. Denver owns the league's highest Week 1 winning percentage at .672 (39-19-1) and has won seven straight season openers, which is the NFL's longest active streak. Then again, how about this for some current trends?The Broncos are just 5-13 ATS during their past 18 away matchups and have failing to cover in EIGHT of their last 10 division games. Better yet, let's note that he home team has won the last SIX meetings in the series and Oakland comes in as a home dog! I love Carr over Flacco in this matchup.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET.

The New England Patriots have won six world championships over the past 18 seasons behind future Hall of Famer Tom Brady (Belichick may deserve some credit here, as well) and will begin their bid for a FOURTH consecutive Super Bowl appearance (only team to have done that is the Bills) against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. The Patriots have won at least 10 games in 16 straight seasons, tying the San Francisco f49ers for the most in NFL history. The Steelers are a fitting Week 1 opponent for the Pats, as Pittsburgh is the only other franchise to win six Super Bowls and happens to be the last team to beat the Pats, winning 17-10 in Week 15 of last year at Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger begins his 16th NFL season, after throwing for 5,129 yards and 34 TDs last season. However, WR Antonio Brown, who surpassed 100 receptions and 1,200 yards in each of the last SIX seasons is now playing for Oakland (I think?) and Le'Veon Bell, arguably the NFL's most-versatile RB, is now playing for the Jets, after sitting out all of last year. The good news is that wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster showed he is capable of a No. 1 role by catching 111 passes and scoring seven times in 2018, while  James Conner stepped in for Bell and rushed for 973 yards and 12 scores while gathering in 55 receptions and a TD in 2018. 

Brady will surely miss Gronk but the 42-year-old showed few signs of slowing down in 2018, throwing for 4,355 yards and 29 touchdowns despite playing with a patchwork crew of WRs (that's not exactly new). Julian Edelman captured Most Valuable Player honors in Super Bowl LIII with 10 receptions for 141 yards plus RB Sony Michel rushed for 930 yards and six scores as a rookie, while backfield mate James White led the team with 87 catches. There have been naysayers recently with some of New England's defensive play but the unit held the Rams (32.9 PPG in the regular season) to just THREE points in the Super Bowl win.

The Steelers 17-10 win as 2 1/2-point home underdogs in Week 15 was the the team's first victory against New England since 2011. Brady has never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium (5-0), as Big Ben’s only career win at Gillette Stadium came when Tom Brady was sidelined in 2008. Brady owns a 13-3 record in Week 1, completing nearly 70-percent of his passes while throwing for 34 TDs against just 10 interceptions. The Steelers were 6-0 as an underdog in 2018 but how does one ignore that the Pats enters this contest with a 39-16-2 ATS mark (71.0%) their last 57 home games. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET.

The Cleveland Browns had a promising finish last year, winning FIVE of their last seven to end the season at 7-8-1. That's pretty rarefied air considering te team was 0-16, 1-15 and 3-13 the previous two seasons. That promising finish coupled with a strong off-season have expectations are running high in Cleveland. QB Baker Mayfield is trying to follow up an excellent rookie campaign (63.8% / 3,725 yards / 27-14 ratio). Star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. joined the team in the off-season and join fellow WR Jarvis Landry (81 catches). RB Nick Chubb (996 yards / 5.2 YPC / 8 TDs) expects to top 1,000 yards in 2019.The Titans are a solid team in the AFC South, the most competitive and strongest division in the AFC. The Titans have won nine games in each of the last three years and the hope is that this is the year QB Marcus Mariota stays healthy (he's yet to play all 16 games).

Tennessee doesn’t have superstars but the Titans don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. Offensively, a lot of the Titans success will come down to Mariota simply staying healthy. Tennessee made several moves in an effort to upgrade the protection around him, giving a $44 million contract to free agent left guard Rodger Saffold and drafting guard Nate Davis in the third round.The Titans have upgraded Mariota’s receiving corps, adding slot-option Adam Humphries, rookie wideout A.J. Brown and getting tight end Delanie Walker back from an ankle injury that sidelined him most of last season. RBDerrick Henry showed how dominant he can be by rushing for 585 yards and scoring seven TDs during the final four games.

The Browns haven’t been ranked inside the top-20 in offensive points scored since 2007 but that should change in 2019. However, the Browns gave up the third-most yards per game last year (393.0 YPG), while ranking 28th in run defense (135.2 YPG). I think expectations are running WAY too high on the Browns. Is Mayfield really that good? He struggled against the better defensive teams he played against  last season and the Titans will bring their "D" to Cleveland. Here's something I will NOT ignore. Cleveland is 5-14-2 ATS in its last 21 games in Week 1 and 9-20 ATS in its last 29 home games. As for the Titans, they have covered 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog of at least three points, while Browns have failed to cover EIGHT of their last 11 games as a favorite of at least three points. Finally, the Browns last won a Week 1 game back in 2004, losing 13 in a row before playing a 21-21 tie in 2018. At this pointspread, the Browns would have been 0-14 ATS in those games. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Sep Game of the Month is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The Falcons and the Vikings square off in a Week 1 matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota.on Sunday afternoon.The Falcons ended a 12-game preseason losing streak on Aug 30 witha 31-12 win at Jacksonville (Jags finished 0-4). The Vikings lost their final preseason game but had won and covered their first three. That's nothing new, as Mike Zimmer is 19-6 SU and 14-7 ATS in preseason plays since taking over as Minnesota's head coach. Atlanta's Dan Quinn enters his fifth season as Atlanta's head coach but one wonders if he and his team will ever be able to overcome the devastating loss in the Super Bowl to the Pats following the 2016 season (blew a 28-3 lead!). Zimmer begins his sixth year at Minnesota (47-32-1 record). The Vikes' best season under Zimmer was in 2017 (13-3), when they lost the NFC championship game at Philly.

Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been able to replicate what it did in the 2016 season when Matt Ryan (4,944 yards / 38-7 ratio) was the NFL's MVP and led the Falcons to the Super Bowl (Falcons were the NFL's highest-scoring team at 33.8 PPG).The Falcons averaged just 22.1 PPG in 2017 and while they improved slightly last season (26.8), they finished 7-9. The Falcons’ defense was 27th in yards per play allowed amid serious injuries to some of the team’s most important players in 2018. In fact, the defense has ranked no better than 20th in three out of four years under head coach Dan Quinn.

In Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, the Vikings have an excellent group of playmakers. The offensive line is expected to be much better than it was in 2018, when it had trouble giving Kirk Cousins much time in the pocket. Cousins' difficulties against good teams have been well-documented but I'm not sure the Falcons will be a "good team" in 2019. The Vikings went 8-1-1 SU last season against teams that finished the year with fewer than 10 wins and own an 18-2-1 record against such teams over the last two seasons.

Atlanta has covered the spread just ONCE in its last six games against Minnesota and checks in 4-12 ATS since 2017 on the regular season road (75% "go-against"). Minnesota is 36-16-1 ATS in its last 53 home games and Zimmer is 4-1 in season-openers plus checks in 9-3 ATS his last 12 September games.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (6:30 EST).

With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers all agree that these teams are very evenly matched. Honestly it wouldn’t be hard to write a convincing argument for either to this one.

New England of course is the most storied franchise in the recent history of the NFL. This is Pats’ QB Tom Brady’s ninth Super Bowl. Brady is looking for a record breaking sixth championship win and I believe his veteran poise in this big game will “win the day.”

As I stated off the top, clearly it wouldn’t be difficult to write a great argument on why the Rams should win this game. The combination of Jared Goff and Todd Gurley is a formidable one.

Goff and the Rams dispatched the Saints 26-23 in OT in New Orleans two weeks ago, avenging an earlier loss in which they were torched for 45 points. Plenty of controversy surrounded the Rams victory of course and while that’s now in the past, I think LA will have its hands full again with the veteran Brady.

Brady and company looked sharp in their 37-31 win in Kansas City. Pats’ RB Sony Michel had 113 yards on 29 carries, while WR Julian Edelman led the way with seven catches for 96 yards. 

The Pats’ looked extremely sharp defensively last week I thought though, although the score may not have completely reflected that, as note the unit held Chiefs’ dynamic QB Patrick Mahomes to just 16 of 31 passes, while also sacking him four times (Mahomes finished the regular season with 50 passing TDs).

I like Brady. I like New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and Bill Bellichick over their younger and less experienced counterparts.

He’s not my favorite player, but wagering on the Super Bowl has nothing to do with who you personally “like.” Brady is a man on a mission and I look for him to put on a vintage performance here.

Play on New England.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* signature 35-Club Play is on the NO Saints at 3:05 ET.

The Rams opened the 2018 season 8-0, finishing at 13-3 but after a 3-0 ATS start to the season, would go just 2-8-1 ATS before season-ending wins and covers over the hapless Cardinals and 49ers. The Saints opened the season with back-to-back home games (as 10-point favorites) against the Bucs and Browns. New Orleans lost outright to Tampa Bay in Week 1 and almost started 0-2, before eking out a 21-18 victory over Cleveland. However, that Week 2 win was the start of a 10-game winning streak in which the  Saints covered NINE in a row. A 13-10 loss at Dallas ended the streak in Week 13. The Saints then won three in a row, before sitting out their regulars in a Week 17 loss, to finish 13-3 (like the Rams). However, The Saints' 45-35 win over the Rams in Week 9 not only ended LA's eight-game winning streak to open the season but it earned the Saints the all-important tiebreaker, which in the end became the determining factor for allowing the Saints to host the Rams in this NFC championship game.

The Rams advanced to this game by rushing for 273 yards against Cowboys in a 30-22 win. Todd Gurley II, apparently beyond nagging injuries that limited his contributions (and kept him sidelined) in December, had 115 rushing yards and C.J. Anderson, a 1000-yard rusher in Denver last year, had 123. The team's ball-control offense gave cover to QB Goff, who threw for just 186 yards and zero TDs. I don't see the Rams being able to like that against the Saints (New Orleans ranks second in YPG allowed rushing at 80.2 per and held the Rams to 92 yards rushing in Week 9), so Goff will need to out-play Brees (not likely). Goff may have thrown 32 TD passes this season but he has only five TDPs in the last five games (including the postseason), with FOUR of them coming against the out-manned 49ers in the regular-season finale.

The Saints were rusty (regulars didn't play in Week 17) last week vs Philly and fell behind 14-0. However, Brees led te team back and the New Orleans D completely shut down Nick Foles and the Philly offense after teh first quarter. Philly gained 151 yards on their two first-quarter TD drives but were held to 99 yards the rest of the game! Remember when the Saints couldn't play defense? No more! Brees started slowly but wound up with 3-0101 yards and two TDs (one INT). New Orleans ran for 137 yards (4.4) and WR Thomas had 12 catches for 171 yards with one TD (note: he also had 12 catches in that Week 9 win over LA, setting a franchise-record 211 yards). As for teh running game, New Orleans ran for 137 yards (4.4 YPC).

The home-field edge MATTERS this time of year, as in each of the last five seasons, the team with home field advantage in both the NFC and AFC championship games advanced to the Super Bowl. The Saints have won their last seven home playoff games, with SIX coming under the watch of Brees and Payton. Enough said.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Playoff Game of the Year is on the LA Chargers at 1:05 ET.

I had a play on the Chargers last week, part of my perfect 4-0 Wildcard Weekend. In my analysis, I explained how I felt that the home field advantage in the Wildcard Round was much less important than in the Divisional Round. Philip Rivers and the Bolts would then go on to unequivocally prove that that was in fact true.

No one could benefit more from a week off from action than Patriots’ QB Tom Brady, who once again led his team to a division title.

Brady and the Pats continue to defy the odds and their story is well known.

Some would argue that the greatest QB to never win a SB is Dan Marino, but I submit that Rivers is at least in the discussion.

LA has the running game to keep opposing offenses honest this year with Gordon (885 yards / 5.1 YPC) and Ekeler (554 yards 5.2 YPC). It’s allowed Rivers to operate and once again put up huge numbers (4,308 yards / 32-12 ratio). This is also a “double revenge” scenario for Rivers, as Brady has gotten the better of him twice in the playoffs, 2007 in the divisional round and the conference title game in New England the following year (note: Chargers covered both games!).

Brady and the Patriots place in history is forever cemented, but there was something about this year’s Patriots which just didn’t “feel” the same as in season’s past (New England also benefitted from a very weak division). Brady had a 29-11 ratio but teh previous four seasons it was 32.23-6.5. Deep threat Josh Gordon was a bust and "Gronk" is no longer a major 'weapon.'

The Chargers 9-0 in games played outside of Los Angeles in 2018, a run that includes wins in Kansas City,Seattle and Pittsburgh. The LA defense has surrendered just 16.0 points per game the last three weeks (with eight takeaways in that span) and an AFC-low 16.9 PPG since the start of October.  Meanwhile, the Pats look vulnerable following a 4-3 stretch (3-4 ATS) to wrap up the regular season

Rivers is 0-7 lifetime vs Brady but this is his BEST-EVER (last-ever?) chance to exorcise his demons. The storyline finally shifts in favor of the Chargers and Rivers in this one. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFL Divisional Rd Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:15 ET.

LA was one of the hottest teams all year, but injury and fatigue seemed to wear on the Rams down the stretch.

Dallas was in danger of missing the playoffs at one point, but QB Dak Prescott (3,885 yards / 22-8 ratio) benefited from the resurgent play of star RB Ezekiel Elliot, who finished with 1,434 yards rushing. The Cowboys enter the Divisional Round as arguably the hottest team in the entire league, at 8-1 SU (lone loss to equally hot Indy!)..

I’ve never been completely convinced of LA and its QB, Jared Goff. The offense is great, there’s no denying (32.9 PPG and 421.1 YPG both rank 2nd). However, if there is any issue at all with RB Todd Gurley’s mobility because of an end of season injury, then that’s a major “monkey wrench” in the entire chemistry in my opinion.

The Rams struggled defensively (24.0 PPG ranks 20th) and even with Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald on the DL, Los Angeles ranked last in the league in yards per rush allowed at a whopping 5.1 yards per carry. Elliott gained nearly the same per carry on first downs alone, so it figures that Dallas will want to play some smash-mouth football, which will be huge for Prescott, as the Cowboys love play-action.

Jerry Jones’ shrewd mid-season addition of big-play WR Amari Cooper now gives Prescott a viable vertical option to stretch the field as well (Coopoer has 53 catches in nine games with 6 TD catches).

Dallas is not just any defense. The Cowboys allow a modest 20.2 PPG (6th) on 329.7 YPG (7th). Dallas also allows only 94.6 YPG rushing (5th), on just 3.8 YPG. The Rams will have trouble running, putting even more pressure on Goff (he did not play well in his first postseason game last year, against the Falcons).

LA’s offense is very similar to that of New Orleans and Dallas beat the Saints 13-10 in Week 13, thanks in part to its strong run game. The Cowboys have the potential to take this one outright but a TD (or more) "in the bank" is a nice bonus.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Showdown is on the Philadelphia Eagles (4:40 EST).

It’s been “do or die” for the Eagles for a few weeks now and last weekend they not only had to beat Washington (24-0), but they also needed the Bears to beat the Vikings to earn this spot.

Philadelphia now has its “foot in the door” and I think it’ll make the most of its opportunity.

Chicago beat Minnesota 24-10 on the road last Sunday. 

Overall the Eagles average 22.9 PPG and concede 21.8. QB Nick Foles has 1,413 passing yards with seven TDs and four picks so far. 

Chicago averages 26.3 PPG and it allows 17.7. QB Mitch Trubisky has 3,223 yards passing with a mediocre 24/12 TD/INT. 

Trubisky though is in unchartered territory at this point. Chicago hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2010 and I think this lack of experience will in fact come back to haunt it here.

Philadelphia has the veteran leadership in Foles to steak this one outright, but in the end I’m going to grab the points.

Play on the Eagles.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the LA Chargers (1:05 EST).

The Chargers will need three road wins now to reach the Super Bowl. Likely not going to happen. Home field is obviously an advantage in the playoffs, but less so in the first round.

The teams which earn a bye have a clear advantage as they have extra time off to heal up and game-plan for the upcoming contest. 

But the Wildcard games, there are no breaks, and it’s just business as usual right after the regular season ends. So, I do indeed feel that this scenario is working in favor of the Chargers in this one.

Especially with a rookie QB under center for Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has been fantastic for Baltimore since taking over for an injured Joe Flacco, but in a playoff “one and one” situation like this, I’m giving Chargers’ veteran pivot Philip Rivers the clear nod in this matchup.

The Ravens have to be thrilled just to back in the playoffs after a three year absence. Baltimore barely held on for a 26-24 win over Cleveland in Week 17 to punch its ticket. 

Note that this is an IMMEDIATE “revenge” game as well, as Baltimore knocked off LA on the road 22-10 in Week 16, a setback which ruined the Chargers chances of top spot in the AFC West.

The Chargers bounced back with a win over the Broncos the following week and while RB Melvin Gordon is questionable, I still think the value lies with Rivers. He finished with 4,308 passing yards and 32 TDs. 

In the loss to the Ravens, the Chargers effectively shut-down Jackson, holding him to a season low 39 rushing yards. 

I think LA has more than enough firepower to take this game outright, but in the end I’m grabbing the points.

Play on the Chargers.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Indianapolis Colts (4:35 EST).

Clearly these teams are very evenly matched. Indianapolis has the small advantage at the most important position, but the Texans have home field and the better defensive unit.

Las Vegas would agree that these teams are evenly matched, as evidenced by this spread.

However, I think that Andrew Luck is on a mission for Indianapolis and I think he’ll be the difference maker in this one.

Luck is up against DeShaun Watson, who had a bounce back year after tearing his ACL in 2017. 

Note that both teams won on the others home field by three points and each QB had a huge game in their victories.

Luck and the Colts clinched their spot in the final Week, beating Tennessee 33-17. Luck had three TD passing, while Marlon Mack had 119 rushing yards and a TD. 

Houston acquired Demaryius Thomas just before the trade deadline and the veteran WR was key in helping the Texans turn around an 0-3 start to the year. Thomas though tore his Achilles tendon in Week 16. 

I could list some strong ATS stats here, but I’m not going to bother. As good as Watson has been this year, I have to give the slight nod at QB to Luck and in my opinion, that’s enough to tip the scales in favor of the visitors today. 

While the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I’m grabbing the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* play is on the Philadelphia Eagles (4:25 EST).

The Eagles have fought themselves back into a playoff position if they win today and the Vikes lose. The Redskins will try their best to play spoiler, but after going just 1-5 in their last six, an inevitable letdown seems imminent here as well in my opinion. 

Philadelphia backup QB Nick Foles is once again dominating, last week he had four TD passes with one INT in a big win over the Texans. Foles also led the charge in an upset of the Rams in Week 15. 

The Redskins’ season officially ended last week in Tennessee, falling 25-16. The main issues come at QB, as Washington lost both starter Alex Smith and backup Colt McCoy to injury.

I’ll point out that the Eagles are interestingly 10-4 ATS in their last 14 after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game, while Washington is a terrible 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games vs. teams with winning road records.

No need to overthink this one. With everything on the line, look for Foles and company to once again step up and get the job done.

Also note that the favorite is 4-0 ATS in its last four in this series.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns (4:25 EST).

Baker Mayfield and the 7-7-1 Cleveland Browns are on a mission to close the season strong whether they make the playoffs or not. Cleveland already beat the Ravens in OT earlier this year.

Baltimore has everything to play for here, but Mayfield and company are out to play spoiler. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab this healthy amount of points.

The Browns come in as arguably the hottest team in the league with victories in five of their last six. Mayfield has completed nearly 65 percent of his passes for 3,394 yards and a now decent 24/11 TD/INT. The ground game has been respectable, averaging 122.9 YPG, with Nick Chubb leading the way with 972 rushing yards and eight major rushing scores. Overall the Browns allow 24.4 PG and they’re led by Myles Garrett on that side of the ball with 12.5 sacks.

The Ravens have won five of six and if they win today they’ll clinch a playoff spot. Rookie QB Lamar Jackson has completed 58.2 percent of his passes for 1,022 yards and a 6/3 TD/INT. Overall Baltimore gets the job done on the defensive side of the ball where it concedes only 17.5 PPG. 

I’ll point out though that the Browns are a sharp 8-4 ATS as the underdog this year, while Baltimore is just 4-6 ATS as the favorite and only 3-4 ATS at home. 

While I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, I’m going to grab the points. Play on the Browns.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the LA Chargers (4:25 EST).

No upsets here. I expect Philip Rivers and the 11-4 Chargers to put the foot on the gas from start to finish here as they look to finish up strong. 

LA had its four-game win streak snapped in a  22-10 loss to the Ravens last week. Rivers has been exceptional this season, going for 4,132 yards and 31/10 TD/INT. RB Melvin Gordon III had 843 rushing yards and ten TD’s. Overall the Bolts are averaging a whopping 27 PPG.

The Broncos have nothing to play for here and they come in dejected after three straight losses.

Most recently they fell 24-17 to lowly Oakland. QB Case Keenum has 3,598 passing yards, but a weak 17/14 TD/INT. 

Offense has been the main issue all year for Denver, which comes in averaging only 21.3 PPG. 

I’ll point out as well that LA is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 on the road and 8-2 in its last ten vs. the division, while Denver is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 at home and only 2-7 ATS in its last nine divisional contests.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Chargers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Texans (1:00 EST).

The 5-10 Jacksonville Jaguars are ripe for the picking. Jacksonville has lost five of its last six on the road and backup QB Cody Kessler has 709 yards, two TDs and two INTs. 

Kessler was inserted to try and spark an inept offense under Blake Bortles direction. The ground game has been average, with an average of 111.9 YPG. The Jags have been decent defensively this year allowing just 19.7 PPG. 

This one simply means more to the Texans. A lot more. Houston needs a win here to keep its top-two seed hopes alive. 

A date at home is just what the doctor ordered as well as the Texans have won five of their last six at home. QB DeShaun Watson has 3,931 yards passing and a 26/9 TD/INT. Note that he has two more TD passes in 13 of his last 20 games. 

The Texans have been stout defensively as well this year, allowing just 20.9 PPG. 

I’ll point out as well that the Jags are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six on the road and 0-2 ATS in their last two off an upset win by ten ore more as an underdog, while Houston is 3-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after scoring 30 points or more in its previous game. 

Despite having won back-to-back games, I think the Jags come out flat here. Over their last four home games the Texans have outscored teams by an average of 12.25 points.

This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

 My 10* Game Of The Year is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:20 EST).

Seattle desperately needs a win here to stay in the playoff hunt. At 8-4, the Hawks need to win this game to keep pace for the Wild card. But a date at home is just what the doctor ordered for the Hawks to accomplish that as they’ve won three straight in the Pacific Northwest.

This is a big game for the Chiefs as well as they’re still trying to lock up the top seed in the AFC. 

These teams are in fact very similar, led by a dynamic, play-making QB and strong running games on offense.

The Hawks however are much better defensively and I think this is going to play a major factor in the outcome of this one.

The Chiefs are led by QB Patrick Mahomes, who has 4,543 yards and a huge 45/11 TD/INT. The ground game averages 114.4 YPG. 

Defensively though Kansas City is allowing 27.1 PPG.

Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 3,025 passing yards and a 31/6 TD/INT. The ground game averages a whopping 154.9 YPG and the defense concedes just 20.9 PPG. 

Note as well that the Chiefs are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Seattle is already 4-2 ATS as an underdog this season, 4-1 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records.

The Hawks come in off a horrible OT loss to the 49ers and they’ll be eager to take out their frustrations in this “do or die” situation. The Chiefs are running out of gas and I believe their shoddy defensive play will finally expose them here in this difficult non-conference road venue.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Battle Of Titans is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (4:25 EST).

In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these talented non-conference opponents has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.

After three straight losses the Steelers got back on track with a key 17-10 win over the Patriots at home last weekend and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here.

Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger had 235 yards, two TDs and two picks in that one, while Jaylen Samuels exploded for 142 yards on the ground. 

The Saints lost to the Cowboys, but they’ve since bounced back with back-to-back victories, however they’ve been anything but easy (28-14 over the Bucs and 12-9 over the Panthers last weekend).

New Orleans’ QB Drew Brees looked particularly weak last weekend, going for 203 yards and an INT. RB Alvin Kamara had just 67 yards. 

I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is already 3-0 ATS in non-conference games this year and 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset win as an underdog, while New Orleans is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games.

Grab the points, expect a nail-biter.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (1:00 EST).

I base my picks on many different things. This one comes down to my “gut”, to the “eye test,” to just plain “common sense,” or whatever you want to call it, but after New England lost in Pittsburgh last weekend, I’m expecting the angry Patriots to take their frustrations out on the lowly Bills on Sunday afternoon.

The Bills have looked a bit better of late but they’ve still lost four of their last five on the road.

Rookie QB Josh Allen is completing just 52.2 percent of his passes for 1,633 yards and a 6/9 TD/INT. 

Buffalo has been decent defensively in conceding just 23.8 PPG, but as mentioned off the top, I think the visitors are going to have their hands full today with a motivated Tom Brady and company.

Thankfully for Brady and company, a date at home is just what the doctor ordered as they’ve already won all six games there this season so far. Brady is completing nearly 66 percent of his passes for 3,979 yards and a 24/9 TD/INT. Overall the Pats are conceding only 22.1 PPG.

I’ll point out as well that Buffalo is just 12-16 ATS in its last 28 as an underdog, while New England is 5-1 ATS as a home favorite this year and 7-2 ATS in its last nine off an upset loss as a favorite.

For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* AFC Seeding Decider is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 EST).

Baltimore is 8-6 and desperate for a victory. Baltimore has won four of its last five games. The Ravens got the better of Tampa Bay last week and got 131 yards and a TD from rookie QB Lamar Jackson (he also rushed for 95 yards). 

The Chargers are 11-3, but after four straight victories, a letdown at some point does seem imminent. Most recently Philip Rivers had 313 yards and two TDs in a win over the Chiefs. 

LA though has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while, going just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following an ATS victory.

Baltimore on the other hand is a solid 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 on the road. 

The Chargers last three victories could have gone either way and I think LA’s “luck” runs out this week. That said, grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* MNF GAME OF YEAR is on the New Orleans Saints (8:15 EST).

Carolina started the season 4-1, but it enters this one at 6-7. Unbelievably perhaps the Panthers still have a shot at the second Wild Card spot, with four other teams in the NFC sitting with an identical record. But after five straight losses, including a deflating 26-20 setback at Cleveland last weekend, I think Carolina is ripe for the picking.

The Saints are already assured a playoff spot, but they still have a lot to play for here as well as they look to lock down top spot in the NFC and the coveted first round bye and home field advantage. 

Last week New Orleans beat the Bucs 28-14, holding a fifth consecutive opponent to 17 or fewer points. 

Last week Panthers’ QB Cam Newton failed to throw a TD pass for the first time this year. Newton has been hit or miss this year, as while he does have nine TD passes during the five-game slide, he’s also been intercepted at least once in all five losses and he has eight picks overall. 

I’ll point out as well that New Orleans is already 7-3 ATS as a favorite this season and 3-1 ATS vs. the division, while Carolina is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 vs. the division (including 1-2 ATS this season) and only 1-3 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite.

With a chance to cement their lead and to end their rivals playoff chances, I look for the high-powered Saints to deliver the knock out blow.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* SNF Magic is on the LA Rams (8:20 EST).

Philadelphia won’t have Carson Wentz under center and they come in off a deflating 29-23 OT loss to Dallas last weekend, all but assuring the final nail in the coffin as far as trying to repeat as Super Bowl champs. 

LA will be eager to get back on track here after a lacklustre 15-6 road loss at Soldier Field last weekend.

Philadelphia averages only 21.6 PPG and with Wentz out, I think that his backup will struggle to find chemistry right away. Nick Foles was superb during Philly’s big SB run, but there’s no question he’s being thrown to the wolves this weekend.

LA averages 32.7 PPG and it allows only 24.1. With a victory today the Rams will clinch first place in the NFC West and they’ll be well on their way to clinching a first round bye as well.

Additionally note that Philly is a poor 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a road underdog, while the Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following a road loss in which they were held to six points or less.

This one has blow-out written all over it. Play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* CRUSHER is on the Baltimore Ravens (1:00 EST).

The 5-8 Buccaneers had their two game win streak snapped last week and they’ve now lost five of their last seven. They tried their best to play spoiler to division rival New Orleans, but with that attempt coming up short, I have a hard time seeing the struggling visiting side mustering up the same energy levels in this difficult non-conference road venue.

Bucs’ QB Jameis Winston has 2,154 passing yards and along with a weak 14/12 TD/INT. The ground game has been terrible, averaging only 98.7 YPG. 

The main issue for Tampa though has been on the defensive side of the ball as it allows an atrocious 29.5 PPG. 

Playing defense has been no issue for Baltimore most weeks though, as it allows just 18.5 PPG, No. 1 in the NFL. This is a crucial game for Baltimore as it looks to keep pace for the Wildcard. QB Lamar Jackson had 687 passing yards and a 4/3 TD/INT, while also rushing for over 400 yards already. 

I’ll point out as well that Tampa is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a loss vs. a division rival, while Baltimore is 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a road loss.

For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST).

The 5-7-1 Green Bay Packers invade Soldier Field looking to pull off an outright upset. While I do indeed feel it’s possible, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. 

Green Bay kept its slim wild card hopes alive with a convincing 34-20 win over Atlanta last weekend and there’s no reason not to think that Aaron Rodgers and company can’t keep that momentum rolling here in this “do or die” scenario. 

Rodgers has 3,700 yards passing and a ridiculous 23/1 TD/INT. Davante Adams has 1,196 receiving yards and 12 TDs. Overall the Packers are averaging 24.2 PPG.

The Bears enter off a very satisfying 15-6 win over the Rams in their last outing and I think they’re primed for a predictable letdown here. The pressure is now on the Bears to deliver the goods, as a victory will lock up the division. QB Mitch Trubisky has 2,579 passing yards and a ho-hum 21/12 TD/INT. Overall Chicago averages 19 PPG.

Additionally note that the Packers are 14-8 ATS in their last 22 after playing a home game, while Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five off an upset win as a home dog. 

The Bears play with revenge, but the Packers are playing for their lives. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Texans (4:30 EST).

The 9-4 Texans looks to get back on track after a 24-21 loss to the Colts at home last weekend. A date against the hapless Jets is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my opinion.

Houston QB DeShaun Watson had 267 yards and a TD last week, as well as 35 rushing yards. Indianapolis had lost at home to Houston earlier in the year and it was also coming off a horrible 6-0 loss to the Jags and the Texans just weren’t able to keep pace down the stretch to extend their win streak.

But a 4-9 Jets team that comes in off an upset win over the Bills looks ripe for a letdown. Jets’ rookie QB Sam Darnold had 170 yards, a TD and a pick. 

I’ll point out though that the Texans are 3-1 ATS at this year vs. teams with losing records and 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing a home game, while New York is just 4-6 ATS as an underdog this saxon and only 2-4 ATS at home.

I’m expecting Watson and company to respond big in this favorable matchup. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Thursday GAME OF THE YEAR is on the LA Chargers (8:20 EST).

It goes without saying that this is an important game. The Chiefs are fantastic on offense, but downright terrible defensively. The Chargers are the more complete all around team and they have the more experienced QB. 

In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab as many points as I can.

LA enters off a 26-21 home win over the Bengals last week, avoiding a potential “trap.” The Chiefs could be running out of gas after their 27-24 OT home win over Baltimore this past weekend. 

The Chargers have won three straight and nine of ten. Philip Rivers has 3,638 passing yards with a 29/6 TD/INT. LA is 5-1 ATS on the road so far this season.

The Chiefs are 3-3 ATS at home this year. QB Patrick Mahomes has a 43/11 TD/INT. The team has plenty of talent, bur recent off field issues involving star player Kareem Hunt could also be taking its toll.

I’ll point out as well that the Chargers are already 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, while the Chiefs are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight after scoring 25 or or more points in five straight games.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Chargers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* play is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:15 EST).

With so much on the line, I think that home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. 

The Vikes enter off a 24-10 road loss in New England last Sunday and now they travel across country to play in another extremely difficult venue. 

Seattle on the other hand comes in off a momentum building 43-16 destruction of the 49ers and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here.

Minnesota averages only 22.9 PPG and it concedes 22.5. Kirk Cousins has a 23/9 TD/INT and he’s been sacked 30 times this year. Last week the Vikes committed two fumbles and only created one of their own.

Seattle averages 26.6 PPG and it concedes 21.6. QB Russell Wilson has a 29/5 TD/INT and he’s been sacked 37 times. 

I’ll point out though that Seattle is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight after posting 150 yards rushing in its previous game, while Minnesota is a terrible 2-9 ATS in its last 11 Monday night contests and just 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with winning records.

The Hawks’ look better on offense, as their ground game is firing on all cylinders. I have a hard time seeing the visitors keeping pace down the stretch.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Battle 4 1st Play is on the Philadelphia Eagles (4:25 EST).

The 6-6 Eagles face the 7-5 Cowboys with their season on the line once again and I believe the improving defending champs will once again find a way to get the job done. 

After losing three of four, Philadelphia has won back-to-back crucial games over the Giants and Redskins. 

Last weekend Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz had 306 yards passing, two TDs and an INT, while WR Golden Tate had 85 receiving yards and a TD catch. 

The Eagles play with revenge here as well, as Dallas comes in having won four straight, starting with the Eagles and then followed by the Falcons, Redskins and Saints. Last week Cowboy QB Dak Prescott had 248 yards and a TD, while Ezekiel Elliot had 76 yards.

I’ll point out though that Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last five in revenging a close loss by 7 points or less vs. an opponent, while Dallas is only 0-2 ATS in its last two after two straight home victories.

For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Redskins (1:00 EST).

The 4-8 New York Giants are looking to deliver the knock out blow to the Redskins, but I think the desperate home side keeps this one competitive. 

The over-achieving Giants look primed for a letdown here in my opinion after winning three of their last four. Note though that despite that New York has still dropped four of its last six on the road. QB Eli Manning has a weak 15/8 TD/INT. So far Manning has one or less TD pass in eight of his 11 games. 

New York has been weak on the defensive side of the ball as well by conceding 26.3 PPG. 

A win today the Skins are back above .500 and right back in the NFC playoff race. QB Mark Sanchez will get the call here, but I’m not basing my play on the veteran whatsoever. Washington has many other weapons, including Jordan Reed and Josh Doctson. 

Overall Washington has been decent defensively, allowing 21.4 PPG. 

I’ll point out as well that New York is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite and only 1-5 ATS in its last six off an upset win as an underdog, while Washington is already a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as a home underdog and 7-3 ATS in its last ten following a loss by ten points or more.

For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on Indianapolis (1:00 EST).

This is a big game for both teams. The Colts come in off a 6-0 road loss to Jacksonville though and they’ll be hungry to bounce back here and to avenge a 37-34 OT home loss to the Texans ealier in the year. The Texans have been one of the hottest teams in the league, but regression at some point is imminent and after last week’s 29-13 home victory over Cleveland, I believe we’ll see that in this important divisional matchup.

Luck was dominant in the loss to the Texans, posting 464 passing yards and four TDs. 

The Colts are averaging 27.1 PPG and conceding only 23.2. Houston has been fantastic overall, but its weakness on defense is clearly against the pass. 

Houston’s won nine straight. It’s difficult to win every single week in the NFL and I think the Texans are primed for a letdown here finally. The Texans come in averaging 25.2 PPG and conceding 19.6. 

I’ll point out though that Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Houston is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after two or more straight ATS victories. 

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).

The 6-6 Carolina Panthers have no hopes of catching the New Orleans Saints for the division lead, but they’ll be looking to keep their slim wild card hopes alive with a win today. 

It’s do or die for Carolina after four-straight losses. QB Cam Newton has a 24/11 TD’INT and he has two or more TD passes in each of his last 11 games. The defense, once a strength, has taken a step back this year, allowing 25.5 PPG.

However, that unit catches a break facing the Browns inconsistent offense which averages only 21.3 PPG. 

Cleveland may have won three of its last five at home, but overall it’s dropped five of its last seven. QB Baker Mayfield has an 18/10 TD/INT. 

The Browns have been weak defensively as well in conceding 26 PPG. 

I’ll point out as well that Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference road games following a three games or more losing streak, while Cleveland is just 8-19 ATS in its last 27 at home.

I look at Mayfield and I look at Newton and then I place my wager on Carolina.

Play on the Panthers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 EST).

This is a big game for both teams, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one.

LA has won four straight and QB Phillip Rivers so far has 26 TDs and six INTs. Overall the ground game is averaging 128.8 YPC, with Melvin Gordon leading the way (Gordon is out for this one though). The defense has been sharp as well, allowing only 19.9 PPG.

Pittsburgh is out to atone for a loss last week, but overall the Steelers come in having won three straight at home. QB Ben Roethlisberger has a 24/12 TD/INT. Antonio Brown has 1,929 receiving yards and 15 TD catches. 

I’ll printout as well that LA is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Pittsburgh is already 3-1 ATS in this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

I’m banking on Pittsburgh bouncing back and for the Chargers to finally run out of gas in this difficult road venue. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry