My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:30 EST).

The 5-5 Green Bay Packers are in Pittsburgh to take on the 8-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Green Bay is reeling without Aaron Rodgers, coming in off a 23-0 loss at home to Baltimore. Backup QB Brett Hundley has struggled, last week he was 21 of 36 or 239 yards, no TD’s and three INT’s. 

Hundley has 940 yards and 2/7 TD/INT ratio since taking over for Rodgers. Rookie RB Jamaal Williams had 57 yards on 18 carries. 

Defensively the Packers looked decent, holding Baltimore to 219 total yards.

But now Green Bay faces a Steelers unit which just exploded for a 40-17 win over Tennessee last Thursday. Ben Roethlisberger was 30 of 45 for 299 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. 

The Steelers defense was tremendous, making four INT’s and allowing only 52 rushing yards. Overall Pittsburgh allows just 287 total yards per game, ranked fourth in the NFL. 

Note that Green Bay is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after getting blanked in its previous outing, while Pittsburgh is 2-1 ATS in its last three after scoring 40 points or more in its previous game.

For all the reasons listed above, lay the points with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 12 Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET.

The 8-2 New Orleans Saints are in LA to take on the 7-3 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

New Orleans is the hottest team in the NFL and railled for a 34-31 win over Washignton last week. Suffice it to say, I’m finally expecting a letdown here from Drew Brees and company. 

LA will be hungry for a rebound performance here after laying a dud in last week’s 24-7 road loss in Minnesota. The Rams also play with revenge after the Saints crushed them 49-21 last year. 

I think New Orleans is ripe for the picking though, gassed after such a long stretch of dominance. Last week the defense conceded 456 yards to the Redskins. New Orleans’ defense is a big reason why the Saints are so improved this year, but continued regression seems imminent against this dynamic Rams offense.

LA has steamrolled over almost everybody it’s faced this season, but last week it came up short against the Vikings’ amazing defense. Overall the Rams have been terrific defensively as well, allowing an average of 123 rushing yards per game. 

Additionally I’ll point out that New Orleans is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road dog of three points or less, while LA is 4-3 ATS as a favorite already this season and 2-1 ATS against clubs with winning records.

I think there’s some room to read between the lines with the Saints’ improved defensive performance this year, as note that their last four opponents certainly haven’t been “World beaters” in the Packers (without Rodgers), the Bears, Bucs and Bills. 

Last week the Saints gave up 31 points to a strong offense on their home field, so things clearly won’t be any easier for them in this hostile environment. 

I’m banking on a blowout, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Jacksonville Jaguars (4:25 EST).

The 7-3 Jacksonville Jaguars are in Arizona to take on the 4-6 Cardinals and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

Jacksonville easily handled the Browns 19-7 on the road last week, while the Cards enter off a 31-21 road loss to Houston. 

Jags’ QB Blake Bortles was 17 of 30 for 154 yards, one TD and no INT’s. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette had 111 rushing yards on 28 carries. WR Marqise Lee had 45 yards receiving. 

But it was once again Jacksonville’s defense which was the difference maker, allowing Cleveland just 184 total yards of offense, while also forcing five turnovers. The Jags feature the No. 1 defense in the league, a unit which has already posted 40 sacks.

Blaine Gabbert got the call for Arizona under center last week and he threw for 257 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s in place of the injured Drew Stanton. RB Adrian Peterson was a no-show for a second straight week, posting 26 rushing yards. 

Arizona’s defense also looked shaky, giving up 357 yards, including 134 on the ground. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Jacksonville is already 4-1 ATS on the road this year and 3-2 ATS against teams with losing records, while Arizona is just 1-2 ATS at home and only 1-4 ATS as an underdog. 

I think the Cards will have a tough time moving the ball against the Jags elite defense. Bortles hasn’t been spectacular this year, but Fournette should be able to do some damage. This line should be a lot bigger in my opinion, play on Jacksonville.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST)

The Falcons come in with a ton of momentum with consecutive victories over Dallas and Seattle. After a slow start to the 2017/18 campaign, I look for Matt Ryan and company to keep the foot on the gas again this weekend.

The Bucs are reeling. Tampa is without starting QB Jameis Winston for a third straight game and it had lost five straight before winning the last two over bottom feeders New York and Miami. 

Tampa has turned to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who comes in off the 30-20 win over the Fish this last weekend, going 22 of 37 for 275 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. 

But Atlanta looks poised for a big run to end the year in my opinion, getting improved play in all three phases right now:

“We’re getting our swagger back,” Falcons’ receiver Julio Jones assessed. “Last year’s last year–but you can’t win games off last year and it can’t do anything for this year. We’re just trying to get it going and get an identity as the 2017 Falcons.”

I’ll point out that Tampa Bay is just 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 against the NFC, while Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after scoring 30 points or more in its previous contest.

This is an important stretch for Atlanta, as this is the first of three straight in front of the home town crowd. I expect Ryan to open up the playbook and I look for Fitzpatrick to stumble down the stretch.

Lay the points, play on the Falcons.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the LA Chargers (4:30 EST).

The 4-6 LA Chargers are in Dallas to take on the 5-5 Cowboys and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

LA comes in having won four of its last six, most recently smashing the Bills. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers had 251 yards and two TD’s in that one.

Rivers has been dominant this year with 2,514 yards, 17 TD’s and seven INT’s. Melvin Gordon keeps defenses honest, so far posting 633 yards and five TD’s on the ground. 

The Cowboys though are reeling. After winning three in a row, Dallas has now dropped two straight to Atlanta and Philadelphia respectively. Dak Prescott looked terrible in his last outing, throwing for 145 yards and three INT’s. 

Prescott has 16 TD’s and seven INT’s thus far, but he’s going to struggle again without RB Ezekiel Elliot in the lineup. 

I’ll point out as well that LA is 94-68 ATS in road games when playing with six or less days of rest since 1992, while Dallas is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after its QB failed to register 150 passing yards in its previous outing. 

Without Elliot playing, Dallas is very one dimensional. The Cowboys have averaged only 16 points over their last two games. That’s not going to cut it against a red hot Rivers and company.

Play on the Chargers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Lions (12:30 EST).

The 8-2 Minnesota Vikings are in Detroit on Thanksgiving to take on the 6-4 Lions and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Minnesota comes in off a 24-7 win over the Rams in its latest action, its sixth win in a row. Detroit enters off a tougher than expected 27-24 road win at Chicago, its third straight victory. 

If recent history is any precedence though, then Detroit has to be loving its chances, because when these teams played on October 1st, it was the Lions that scored the 14-7 upset victory.

Minnesota’s Case Keenum was 27 of 38 for 280 yards and a score last week. Overall the Vikes held the Rams to just 45 rushing yards on 17 attempts. Minnesota enters this game ranked second defensively, conceding just 17.2 PPG.

Lions’ QB Matt Stafford had 299 yards and two TD’s last week, but Detroit posted just 66 rushing yards. Detroit has struggled with the run this year, ranked 28th, while been dominant in the passing game, ranked sixth. 

Ultimately I think the short week favors the home side. Minnesota has been playing incredible defense, but I believe the unit finally comes in “gassed.” Expect Stafford to air this one out early and often and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Lions.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers (4:05 EST).

The Bills were destroyed 47-10 at home to New Orleans last weekend, a beatdown so bad that the team has benched QB Tyrod Taylor in favor of backup Nate Peterman moving forward. Peterman was 7 of ten for 79 yards and a TD last week. 

Buffalo comes in ranked 28th in the league in total offense with just 292 YPG and 19th in scoring with 20.4 PPG, while the defense has been middle-of-the-pack, allowing 21.8, ranked 15th.

The Chargers rank 23rd in scoring with 18.6 PPG, while ranked ninth on the defensive side by conceding just 19.1 PPG. 

LA comes into this one with four losses of three points or fewer (after having five losses of four points or fewer last season.) 

The Chargers’ run game has been a weak point, but the Bills have been gouged for 492 yards on the ground over the last two weeks combined.

Last week LA QB Philip Rivers was 21 of 37 for 235 yards, two TD’s and an INT. 

I’ll point out that the Bills are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 following a double-digit loss at home, while the Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six in this series in front of the home town crowd.

If Melvin Gordon is going to have a break out performance, then this is the team to have it against. Rivers is going to have plenty of opportunities as well against this Bills team which is once again searching for an identity in all three phases. 

Lay the points with confidence as the Bolts lay down the hammer at home. 

Good luck…Larry

My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST).

The 5-4 Detroit Lions are in Chicago to take on the 3-6 Bears and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Detroit comes in off a 38-14 win over Cleveland, while Chicago dropped a tough 23-16 decision at home to Green Bay. 

These teams split a pair of games last year, each being decided by a single field goal.

Detroit QB Matt Stafford has a 17/5 TD/INT ratio this year. Last weekend RB Ameer Abdullah had 52 yards on the ground, part of 104 total for the Lions. Stafford had 249 yards, three TD’s and an INT. 

The Lions looked poor defensively though, conceding 413 yards, including 201 on the ground.

Chicago allowed 342 total yards to the Packers last week. QB Mitchell Trubisky was 21 of 35 for 297 yards, a TD and no INT’s. Trubisky looked more comfortable last week and I expect that progression to once again get carried over here. RB Jeremy Howard had 54 yards on 15 carries. 

The strength of the Bears’ defense is against the pass, which is also in Chicago’s favor facing the Lions’ pass-centric offense.

I’ll point out as well that Detroit is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Chicago is 6-3 ATS in its last nine off a loss against a division rival.

I’m expecting a nail-biter. Grab the points, play on the Bears.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the LA Rams (1:00 EST).

The Vikes have now won five in a row, coming out of their bye and getting the better of the Redskins last week. 

LA also comes in on top form, with wins over the Jags, Cards, Giants and Texans.

Last week the Rams posted the 33-7 victory over Houston. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley lead a dynamic offense, while the LA defense has been better than orginally advertised. 

Minnesota has Case Keenum under center now and he so far has 11 TD’s and five INT’s. Keenum has thrown at least one INT in four straight games and he had two in last week’s 38-30 win over Washington.

I’ll point out that LA is already 3-1 ATS on the road this year and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 “dome” games, while Minnesota is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after scoring 35 points or more in its previous contest. 

Ultimately I think that LA’s depth on the offensive side of the ball will win the day over the Vikes league leading defensive unit. Grab the points, play on the Rams.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFL Week 11 Las Vegas Insider GOY is on the GB Packers at 1:00 ET.

The 4-5 Baltimore Ravens are in Green Bay to take on the 5-4 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Baltimore last played on November 5th in Tennessee and lost to the Titans 23-20. 

Green Bay comes in with momentum with Brett Hundley under center, coming off an upset 23-16 victory at Chicago last Sunday. 

In the Ravens latest loss, QB Joe Flacco had 261 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The run game posted just 73 yards on 22 carries. 

Overall Baltimore is ranked 30th in total offense by averaging 286.6 YPG, while ranked in the middle of the pack defensively, allowing 184.7 YPG through the air and 125.9 on the ground. 

Green Bay ranks 23rd in total offense with an average of 313.7 YPG, while ranked 24th in total defense by conceding 353.6. Hundley though has started to find his groove and will benefit today from playing in front of the home town crowd.

I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine non-conference games (including 0-2 ATS this year) and just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 when playing the role of favorite, while Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine off a win against a division rival and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog.

The Ravens were in “free fall” before their bye and I don’t think the extra time off is going to help their issues. Hundley meanwhile has gotten progressively better with each start and I look for that trend to continue on Sunday afternoon.

Play on Green Bay.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the PIttsburgh Steelers (8:25 EST).

The 6-3 Tennessee Titans are in Pittsburgh to take on the 7-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

It wasn’t pretty, but the Steelers battled tough and scored the 20-17 win in Indianpolis last weekend, while the Titans also rallied to post the 24-20 win at home over the Bengals. 

Both teams are on fire, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be overlooked in this case. 

Both teams come in off victories, but neither looked overly impressive. Each will be looking for a bounce back performance, but the trends support the home side in this spot, as note that Tennessee is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive SU victories (including 0-2 already this year) and just 6-14 ATS in its last 20 on the road (including only 1-3 ATS this season), while Pittsburgh is 11-6 ATS its last 17 at home (including 2-1 ATS this year) and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 against teams with winning records (including 2-0 ATS this season.)

Tennessee has been great in stopping the run, ranked seventh, but horrible against the pass, ranked 28th. 

And that doesn’t bode well facing big Ben Roethlisberger, who will be out to atone for last week’s near disaster.

The Pittsburgh defense though has been superb, ranked second in the NFL in overall yards given up per game (284.4)

The Steelers’ defense has been remarkable of late, allowing 20 or less points in four straight games. 

I think the Titans have a letdown on the short week in this tough atmosphere and I look for the veteran Roethlisberger to take full advantage.

Lay the points, play on the Steelers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Denver Broncos (8:30 EST).

The 6-2 New England Patriots are in Denver to take on the desperate 3-5 Broncos and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Now, I’m not suggesting to “sprinkle” a little on the money line, but I do definitely think this one will be a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The Pats come to town off their bye week, last beating the Chargers 21-13 at home. 

The Broncos lost their fourth straight in a 51-23 setback on the road at red hot Philadelphia last weekend. 

So far the Pats are seventh in the league in scoring with 27 PPG, while ranked 16th on the defensive side in conceding 22.4. QB Tom Brady has 2,541 yards, 16 TD’s and two INT’s this season.

Brady though has been sacked 21 times. Mike Gillislee leads the rushing attack with 355 yards and four major scores.

This is it for Denver, as another loss will almost assuredly have the team planning for next season. 

So far the Broncos rank 22nd in the leauge in scoring with 18.8 PPG, while ranked 25th defensively in conceding 24.8. QB Trevor Siemian has 1,669 yards with nine TD’s and ten INT’s. CJ Anderson has 482 yards and two TD’s. 

I’ll point out though that Denver is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 at home (including 2-1 ATS this season) and still 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog, while New England is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite of 7.5 to ten points. 

Denver’s defense remains its strength and I think it’s going to come up big at home here. The outright upset? Probably not. But all signs point to a nail-biter. I’m grabbing the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the LA Rams (4:05 EST).

The 3-5 Houston Texans are in LA to take on the 6-2 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

LA comes in off three straight wins, while the Texans are reeling after two straight losses.

Houston staring QB DeShaun Watson was lost to injury and backup Tom Savage was just 19 of 44 for 219 yards and one TD in the 20-14 loss to the Colts. 

In all the Texans were outgained 371 to 288. 

LA seems on a mission now that it’s left St. Louis. LA is ranked third in total offense this year with 382.1 YPG. In fact, Jared Goff and Todd Gurley lead the league’s No. 1 scoring offense with 32.9 PPG. Last week Goff had four TD’s in the win over the Giants.

Gurley meanwhile has a league-high ten major scores. 

I’ll point out as well that Houston is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games against teams with a winning home record, while LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a three game unbeaten streak. 

In the two games since Savage took over as QB, the Texans have managed seven and 14 points total in those two contests.

I like Goff to continue his hot play and for the Rams’ defensive unit to come up big against the “gassed” Texans offense. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 10 Las Vegas Insider is on the Was Redskins at 1:00 ET.

The Vikings are sitting pretty in the NFC North at 6-2, as only the Lions are above .500 (5-4) in the division. They are also off a bye week plus come into this contest on a four-game winning streak. However, let's take a closer look at those four wins. First came the Bears (now 3-5) in Mitch Trubisky’s first start, then the Packers in a game in which Aaron Rodgers got KO’d early. Up next were the slumping Ravens (in the midst of losing four of five games), and then win-less Browns in London (Cleveland is 0-8 and 1-23 since the start of 2016). Let's just say, not exactly a Murderer's Row!

The Redskins are still right in the mix for one of two NFC wild card spots, after their timely 17-14 win last Sunday in Seattle. QB Kirk Cousins is completing 67.9% with 13 TDs and four INTs, for a QB rating of 102.0. That comes on the heels of him completing 68.3% with a 54-23 TD-to-INT ratio, with QB ratings of 101.6 and 97.2. The ONLY organization that thinks he's not a top-flight QB in the NFL is the Redskins. Maybe they would prefer Minnesota's Case Keenum. I prefer Cousins and the Redskins in this one.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST).

The 6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers are in Indianapolis to take on the 3-6 Colts and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Pittsburgh posted a 20-15 road win over Detroit in its latest action, while Indianapolis definitely looks primed for a letdown here after its shcoking 20-13 victory at Houston last Sunday. 

The Steelers have to be feeling pretty confident here, because when these teams met last year it was Pittsburgh that won easily 28-7, with QB Ben Roethlisberger throwing three TD’s, while RB Le’Veon Bell had 120 yards. 

Roethlisberger had 317 yards in the victory over the Detroit. Bell had 75 yards on 25 carries. 

The Steelers uncharacteristically gave up 482 yards to the Lions, but they came up clutch in the most important moments, holding Detroit to 0 for 5 in the red zone. Pittsburgh enters out of its bye having won three straight.

Indianpolis QB Jacoby Brissett was 20 of 30 for 307 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week, while RB Frank Gore had 51 rushing yards on 17 carries. 

The Colts’ defense looked sharp, holding the Texans to 288 total yards.

I’m not reading too much into the one decent performance though. Houston had just lost a 41-38 game against the Seahawks on the road and clearly it looked out of gas last week. 

Indianapolis snapped a three game slide, but remains in last place in the AFC South.

Additionally I’ll point out that the Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last six after posing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game, while the Colts a horrible 1-9-1 ATS in theit last 11 following a SU victory. 

Indianapolis owns the league’s worst defense, allowing an average of 29 PPG. And that’s music to a well rested “Big Ben” and company.

I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Play on the Steelers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Detroit Lions (8:30 EST).

The 3-4 Detroit Lions are in Green Bay to take on the 4-3 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

This is a double revenge scenario for the Lions as well after the Packers took both games from them last season.

That was of course with star QB Aaron Rodgers under center. But Rodgers is injured and lost for the year, meaning that Green Bay backup Brent Hundley has been forced into the spot light.

Two weeks ago Hundley made his first start at home against the Saints and he looked horrible, going just 12 of 25 for 87 yards, no TD’s and a pick. RB Aaron Jones had 131 yards on 17 carries with a TD, but note that the Lions are seventh in the league against the run, allowing only 91.6 rushing yards per game. 

In last week’s loss to the Steelers, Lions’ QB Matt Stafford did everything but find the endzone unfortunately, finishing 27 of 45 for 423 yards. 

Admittedly the Lions’ run game is horrible, but Stafford catches a break this week in facing the Packers’ 16th ranked pass defense which gives up 223.1 YPG. 

Note as well that Detroit is 3-1 ATS in its last four Monday night games, while Green Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU loss.

Stafford isn’t the highest paid QB in the history of the NFL for nothing. If he can’t get the better of Hundley today, then there is something seriously wrong in Detroit. I’m banking on Stafford answering the call though and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

Play on the Lions.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Cardinals (4:05 EST).

The San Francisco 49ers traded a 2018 second-round draft pick for New England Patriots QB Jimmy Garoppolo on Monday night. However, Garoppolo is not expected to start Sunday against the Cardinals, as C.J. Beathard will remain starter for now.

Brian Hoyer started the first six games for San Fran but was benched in favor of C.J. Beathard in the team's loss to Washington on Oct. 16. Beathard has started the past two games, going 39 of 74 for 402 yards with one TD and two interceptions. However, after losing five straight games by three points or less, the 49ers have lost 40-10 and 33-10 with Beathard starting. San Francisco is now a pathetic 1-22 SU last 23 (only win was 22-21 over Rams in Week 17 of 2016), falling to 0-8 to open the 2017 season, the first time that's happened in franchise history.

Drew Stanton was the fifth QB drafted in 2007 (43rd overall pick) and the only one still on an NFL roster, See if you can find Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb and John Beck these days on any NFL rosters? He came to Arizona in 2014 and will be making his 10th regular season start (6-3 first nine). Stanton has the raw arm and athleticism to put points on the board.

Arizona has excelled in this spot for bettors as well, going 2-1 ATS in its last three off a loss against a conference rival and 11-3 ATS in its last 14 in all games where the line was set between +3 and -3.

Conversely, the 49ers have really struggled in this position for bettors, going just 5-6 ATS in their last 11 games where the line in the contest is between +3 and -3 and only 10-14 ATS their last 24 after two or more consecutive SU losses. 

I’m banking on Stanton doing just enough to secure his team the victory here. Play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Washington Redskins (4:05 EST).

The 3-4 Washington Redskins are in Seattle to take on the 5-2 Seahawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Washington will be hungry here after its 33-19 home loss to Dallas, while I think Seattle looks primed for a letdown after its thrilling, last-second 41-38 win over Houston at home last week.

The Redskins so far average 22.9 PPG, while conceding 25.7. Clearly that’s not a recipie for success. Last week QB Kirk Cousins was 26 of 39 for 263 yards, a TD and an INT. Cousins has been solid so far with 1,900 yards, 13 TD’s and four INT’s this season. In fact, Cousins 103.3 QBR is third overall.

The Hawks are averaging 25.0 PPG and conceding 18.9, ranked seventh. QB Russell Wilson was 26 of 41 for 452 yards, four TD’s and an INT last weekend. The run game was non-existent though, producing just 33 yards in the win over Houston.

That’s not going to get the job done most weekends. 

I think Cousins and the desperate visiting side will have their opportunities today, just like the Texans did last week.

I’ll also point out that the Redskins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games and 7-3 ATS their last ten against teams with winning records, while Seattle is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following a straight up victory. 

Ultimately I feel that Cousins will be able to keep his team competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST).

The 3-4 Cincinnati Bengals look to move back to .500 with a win in Jacksonville against the 4-3 Jaguars this afternoon.

It wasn’t pretty, but the Bengals bounced back and edged Indianapolis 24-23 last week. Jacksonville has so far been better than advertised this season, but I think it’s going to show some signs of rust after its bye week, previous to that smashing the Colts 27-0 the last time it was on the field of play.

Cincinnati gave up 331 yards, including 115 rushing last week. The Bengals’ defense has been a strength this year and I think it’s going to be a difference maker this afternoon as well. After a very slow start to the year, the Bengals have now won three of four.

QB Andy Dalton started slowly as well and has since been getting into a groove, for the season he has an 11/8 TD/INT ratio. WR AJ Green has 572 receiving yards and four TD’s.

Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles has been inconsistent from game-to-game this year as well and so far has 1,398 passing yards and a 9/5 TD/INT. 

The Jaguars have also been getting above average defensive play, holding Indianapolis to just 232 yards last week. Note that Jacksonville is particularly tough against the run, but does have issues against the pass.

Which of course doesn’t bode well in facing Dalton in my opinion. Additionally I’ll point out that Cincinnati is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 on the road, while Jacksonville is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 at home.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bengals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST).

Both teams have been scuffling. The Broncos have lost two straight, most recently getting shutout 21-0 by the Chargers this past weekend, while the Chiefs have also fallen on recent hard times by dropping two straight, most recently a crushing 31-30 setback to Oakland on October 19th.

I think KC bounces back in a big way here though as it looks to take advantage of a Denver team which is dealing with several injuries to its offensive line and at the WR position. 

Denver WR Emmanual Sanders missed the game against LA because of a sprained ankle and he’s listed as questionable for this one as well (if he does happen to play, clearly he’s going to be less than 100% capacity.) 

Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian was 25 of 35 for 207 yards and a pick in the loss. 

Denver’s defense remains its strength, allowing only 258.5 YPG. That unit though clearly faces a stiff test against this prolific offense and in this hostile environment.

Last week Chiefs’ QB Alex Smith was 25 of 36 for 342 yards and three TD’s. So far Smith has 15 TD’s and zero INT’s on the year. RB Kareem Hunt added 87 yards and now has 1,002 yards and six TD’s on the season. 

KC ranks third in YPG overall with 392.4, but it ranks 29th on the defensive end in conceding 396.3 YPG.

The Chiefs’ defense catches a big break this week though in facing the one-dimensional Broncos’ offense. 

KC opened the year 5-0, but it’s since dropped its last two. The game against the Raiders could have gone either way though, so they could easily be sitting at 6-1. Oakland was desperate last week and it managed to take care of business at home against a divisional opponent.

But with those two losses behind them, I’m expecting Smith and the Chiefs to return to form on the national stage and to ultimately pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover on Monday night.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:30 EST).

The Steelers come in on top form and catch a Lions team that’s going to be rusty coming out of its bye week. In my opinion, this line could easily be a lot larger.

Detroit has lost two straight, most recently to Carolina and New Orleans, while Pittsburgh has won two very tough games in a row against KC and Cincinnati.

Ben Roethlisberger threw five INT’s in a 30-9 loss to Jacksonville earlier in the month and since then has gone 2-0 with three TD’s and one INT. 

Big Ben has gotten plenty of help as well, as RB Le’Veon Bell has 313 yards combined over his last two games. 

The Steelers rush defense has been dominant as well, holding the Chiefs to 28 yards and the Bengals to 71: 

“The sky’s the limit,” Steelers’ linebacker Bud Dupree assessed after last week’s win. “Not even the sky’s the limit. We’re not going to put a ceiling on our head. We’re going to keep going up.”

Detroit ranks 26th in the NFL in total offense with 298.0 YPG and the run game averages just 4.6 YPC. QB Matt Stafford has 12 TD’s and six picks on the year. 

The numbers/trends also support Pittsburgh this weekend, as note that the Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game, while the Lions are just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and only 1-6 ATS in their last seven against clubs with winning records.

Detroit’s leading receiver Golden Tate has a shoulder injury and is listed as day to day. If he does happen to play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity. Stafford doesn’t have too many options left (Marvin Jones Jr. has 20 catches for 280 yards and three TD’s), and he’s turned the ball over six times in the last three games.

Pittsburgh continues to gain confidence though, especially by RB Bell, who looks poised for another big game tonight. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Steelers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 8 Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

The 3-4 Oakland Raiders are in Buffalo to take on the 4-2 Bills on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, all signs point to a comfortable cover for the home side.

Oakland looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its thrilling 31-30 home win over Kansas City. 

Conversely, I think the “under the radar” Bills are poised for another big day after holding on for a 30-27 win over a dangerous Tampa Bay team at home last weekend. 

Note that this is a “revenge” game for the Bills as well after they fell 38-24 in Oakland last season.

So far Oakland has averaged just 22.1 PPG, while ranked 18th overall in allowing 22.3 PPG. QB Derek Carr has looked brilliant at times this season and downright awful in others. 

He was sharp against the Chiefs, going for 417 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. On the year Carr has 1,341 passing yards, 11 TD’s and four picks. Amari Cooper had a big game against KC, hauling in 11 passes for 210 yards and two TD’s. 

Note though that previous to that Cooper had just 146 total yards over his first six games, so reading too much into one decent start is in my opinion, dangerous.

Buffalo enters ranked 19th in scoring with 19.8 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end in conceding just 16.8, ranked fourth. LeSean McCoy had 91 yards and two TD’s last week. QB Tyrod Taylor has 1,178 yards, seven TD’s and just two INT’s on the season. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Oakland has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 games played in the month of October and just 2-4 ATS in its last six against teams with winning records, while Buffalo has excelled in this position by going 10-8 ATS in its last 18 at home (including 2-0 this season) and 2-1 ATS in its last three played in the month of October. 

The Raiders looked good with their backs against the wall last week, but as I stated earlier, I’m not reading too much into one decent performance. The Bills have been sharp all year and have been at the best at home.

In my professional opinion, this line could/should easily be a lot larger. Play on Buffalo.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST).

I’ve played the Saints the last two weeks and I think New Orleans is going to keep the goods times rolling with another convincing victory at home this afternoon. 

New Orleans most recently posted a solid 26-17 road win over Green Bay last week, while the Bears held on for an improbable 17-3 home win over Carolina. 

Chicago’s defense saved the day last week, because QB Mitchell Trubisky had just 107 yards on four passes. Over three games Trubisky has shown promise with 348 yards, two TD’s and one pick. 

The Bears’ offense struggled overall though and failed to score a TD. Chicago forced three turnovers, but note that despite that it still owns the 31st ranked pass defense in the league. 

New Orleans conceded just 260 total yards to Brett Hundley and the Packers last week. Hundley is no Aaron Rodgers, but there’s no question that the Saints looks vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball this season. 

The Saints’ offense is of course led by QB Drew Brees, who wasn’t at his best in the victory last week, posting 338 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Overall though Brees is putting together another solid campaign with 1,652 passing yards and an 11:4 TD to INT ratio. One other player for New Orleans to keep your eyes on today is WR Ted Ginn Jr., who had 141 receiving yards on seven catches last weekend. 

I’ll point out as well that Chicago has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 on the road and only 3-11 ATS in its last 14 after allowing less than 15 points in its previous outing, while New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last five following a SU victory and 7-1 ATS in its last eight against teams with losing records. 

New Orleans comes into this one on top form. The Bears’ biggest strength is their defense and the biggest weakness of that unit is the pass defense. That’s bad news facing a confident Drew Brees at home.

I’m laying the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets (1:00 EST).

Atlanta is 3-3 SU and comes off a horrible effort in New England last weekend. The Falcons have now lost three straight and look like a team with more questions than answers right now.

New York has looked much better than almost everyone expected, but it will be looking to get back on track after consecutive setbacks to New England and Miami. 

In last weekend’s loss to New England, Atlanta suffered another injury to LB Duke Riley, who will be out for at least four weeks. 

After three straight wins, Matt Ryan and company continue to struggle with consistency.

And that doesn’t bode well in facing this “under the radar” Jets’ defense in my opinion. 

Even at 3-4, New York is still in contention in the wide open AFC East. QB Josh McCown has been better than expected, last week going 17 of 27 for 209 yards, three TD’s and one pick, while also rushing a TD in himself. 

I’ll point out as well that ATL is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 following a SU loss, while New York is 4-0 ATS in its last four in front of the home town crowd.

McCown is on fire this year and won’t be shy to open up the playbook again today against this porous Falcons’ secondary. Note that McCown has completed almost 70 percent of his passes and already has ten TD’s. 

Ryan on the other hand has been a complete disaster, throwing six picks and just seven INT’s. 

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the Jets to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

Good luck…Larry

The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 EST).

The 4-3 Carolina Panthers look to get back on track after a humbling 17-3 loss to Chicago last week, while the Bucs will be looking to take out their frustrations on someone after a tough 30-27 road loss in Buffalo.

If recent history is any precedence though, then Tampa Bay has to be liking its chances today as it took both meetings in the series last year. 

Panthers’ QB Cam Newton was 21 of 34 for 211 yards, no TD’s and two INT’s last week. Newton is starting to show signs of fatigure already this year, having thrown five INT’s over his last two games (owns a poor 9/10 TD/INT ratio.) RB Jon Stewart managed just 48 yards on 14 carries. 

Note that in three games already this season the Panthers have scored 13 or fewer points. 

The defense remains a strength of the team and it looked good against the inept Bears last week, but clearly the unit faces a much stiffer test against the dynamic Jameis Winston and company.

Winston was 32 of 44 for 384 yards, three TD’s and one INT in last week’s loss. So far he has 1,643 passing yards and 10/4 TD/INT ratio. WR Mike Evans continued his strong campaign with seven catches for 88 yards. 

Tampa’s defense struggled last Sunday, but it catches a break this weekend in facing a suddenly struggling Newton.

Also note that Carolina is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 against the division and just 1-3 ATS in its last four against teams with losing records, while Tampa Bay is 2-1 ATS in its last three against clubs with winning records and 2-1 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses. 

Winston and his offense comes in on top form and he rides the wave of emotion in front of the home town crowd. Newton is struggling and I think that gets carried over here. Play on Tampa Bay.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:25 EST).

The 4-2 Miami Dolphins are coming off an epic 31-28 win at the Atlanta Falcons. In that win they lost starting QB Jay Cutler to injury and were led to victory by backup Matt Moore. 

The Ravens meanwhile are just 3-4 and they’ll be eager to get back into the winners circle after falling 24-16 at Minnesota this past weekend. 

As mentioned off the top, Moore came in to replace Cutler last week and he’d go for 188 yards, two TD’s and a pick. RB Jay Ajayi though had just 51 yards on 23 attempts. 

The Fish are ranked 32nd in total offense this year with just 261.8 yards per game accumulated on average. Miami has made up for it on the defensive end though, giving up 18.7 PPG thus far.

Baltimore QB Joe Flacco was 27 of 39 for 186 yards with one TD and no picks last weekend. The Ravens are now dealing with injuries to the WR position and the unit is putting up just 18.3 PPG this year. The defense is poor against the run, but great against the pass (allowing 189.3 YPG in the air thus far.)

I’ll point out though that Miami is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off a divisional game and just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 as an underdog, while Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of three points or less.

Moore looked “ok” last weekend, but this is a difficult place to play and the short week won’t help matters. There’s big time pressure on Moore to perform and I think he’s going to stumble here. The correct call is on Flacco and the hungry home side. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Washington Redskins (8:30 EST).

The 3-2 Washington Redskins are in Philadelphia to take on the 5-1 Eagles on Monday night and while I obvoiusly wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the hungry visiting side to at the very least, take this one down to the wire.

The Eagles most recently beat the Panthers 28-23, while the Redskins are coming off a 26-24 home win over the 49ers last Sunday.

Note that this is a revenge game after Philadelphia scored the victory in the first meeting between the team’s this year, a 30-17 win back on September 10th.

Last week Redskins’ QB Kirk Cousins was 25 of 37 for 330 yards, two TD’s and a pick. Washington looked a little flat footed coming out of its bye week, but managed to pull off the win in the end. 

So far the Skins have been getting the job done on the ground by committee, averaging 122.8 YPG thus far. Defensively Washington looks solid as well, allowing just 316 total yards per game, including only 88 rushing.

The Eagles have been getting great play from QB Carson Wentz, who now has 1,584 yards, 13 TD’s and just three INT’s. While Philadelhpia is stout against the run (just 65.7 YPG), Cousins and company definitely catch a break today in facing the Eagles’ 29th ranked pass defense, which allows 273.5 YPG.

Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 against the division and only 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite of 3.5 to seven points, while Washington is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 on the road and 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. 

I think Cousins has a big day against this pathetic Eagles’ secondary. 

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST).

The 3-2 Seattle Seahawks will look to take advantage of a depleted New York Giants team that could come in contented and flat-footed here after finally geting the monkey off its back in last week’s Sunday nighter.

The Hawks went into their bye week off consecutive victories over the Colts and Rams, while the Giants got off the schneid with a victory in Denver this past weekend.

Seattle has looked signficantly better after a shaky start to the season, but with an extra week to prepare for this one, I believe that Russell Wilson and company are going to have a big night. 

Wilson is a time management master and he’s going to be able to keep his offense on the field of play as long as possible today, so as to keep the Giants’ Eli Manning off of it.

The Giants needed their defense to step up big last week and it did. Manning was adequate, but I think he’s going to struggle against the Seahawks elite defensive unit. 

New York has become completely one dimensional because of some key recent injuries and this is not a favorable defensive matchup for it whatsoever.

I’ll point out as well that Seattle is interestingly 5-2 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a victory.

The Giants won last week despite only posting 266 yards of offense. That’s simply not going to get it done against this rested/focused Seahawks side.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 7 Las Vegas Insider is on the Car panthers at 1;00 ET.

The Panthers hosted the Eagles in Week 6's Thursday game in a showdown of two, 4-1 teams. Carolina came up on the short end of that one, as Carson Wentz out-played Newton, throwing three TD passes without an INT. Newton attempted 52 passes and had three INTs against just one TD. The Bears come in off a 27-24 OT win last Sunday at Baltimore, as Chicago's Mitchell Trubisky, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, earned his first win as an NFL starter. Trubisky did nothing special, completing 8 of 16 passes for 113 yards but didn't throw an interception and had one TD pass. However, he also lost one of his two fumbles.

Carolina takes its 4-2 record (good enough to lead the NFC South) to Soldier Field on Sunday, with Chicago coming in at 2-4 (Packers and Vikings lead the NFC North at 4-2, while the Lions are 3-3). The Panthers are typically successful when Newton has rushing stats like in Week 6 (11 carries for 71 yards) but the problem was the rest of the team's running attack was non-existent (just nine yard on 14 attempts!). Newton was off back-to-back outstanding efforts in road wins at New England (33-30) and Detroit (27-24), where he had completed 77.4% for 671 yards with six TDs and just one INT. His effort against Philly was quite a come-down, going 28 of 52 for 239 yards with one TD, three INTs and a QB rating of 48.5.

While Newton got no help from his RBs, Trubisky saw Jimmy Howard run for 167 yards, a the Bears ran for 231 yards as a team. However, don't expect a repeat effort here, as the Panthers rank 5th in the NFL in rush D, allowing 83.3 YPG. Overall, Carolina ranks 4th in total D (280.0 YPG) and 9th in points allowed, at 20.3 PPG. Trubisky still has a lot to learn and he'll lead an offense averaging just 17.5 PPG (28th) and the Chicago D ranks 25th in points allowed (24.7 per), which won't make his job any easier.

Two recent stats favor Carolina, as the Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss, while the Bears are 0-7 SU and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win. Let me also add that Carolina is 3-0 SU & ATS on the road in 2017. Newton out-played Brady in New England and coming off a loss (with some extra time to prepare off a Thursday night game in Week 6), my bet says he 'takes down' the rookie Trubisky (and the Bears), "with room to spare!'

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST).

The surging 3-2 New Orleans Saints are in Green Bay to take on the devastated 4-2 Packers this Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

I had a play on New Orleans as my “Las Vegas Insider” last weekend it went on to annihilate Detroit 52-38.

Green Bay comes in off a crushing 23-10 loss at Minnesota last weekend, losing Pro Bowl QB Aaron Rodgers to injury in the process. 

New Orleans so far averages 29.0 PPG, ranked fourth in the league. Defensively the Saints aren’t great, ranked 21st in conceding 23.2 PPG. However, compared to last season’s dumpster fire of a defense, New Orleans looks markedly improved this year on that side of the ball (sacked Matt Stafford five times.)

QB Drew Brees was 21 of 31 for 186 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. So far he has 1,321 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s on the year. 

Green Bay is ranked tenth in scoring with 24.5 PPG, but with Rodgers out, that stat is meaningless now. The defense has been middle of the pack, ranked 18th in allowing 22.5 PPG. 

I’ll point out that New Orleans is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 on the road, while Green Bay is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a straight-up loss. 

Brett Hundley is not going to be able to keep pace with Brees today, who will smell the blood in the water and who will put the foot on the gas early to try and deliver the knock out blow. 

I don’t think the Green Bay defense will be up to the task of slowing down the Saints’ veteran pivot. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Cardinals (1:00 EST).

The 3-3 Arizona Cardinals are in LA to take on the 4-2 division rival Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Last weekend Cards’ RB Adrian Peterson rushed for 134 yards and two TD’s on 26 carries in Arizona’s 38-33 win over Tampa Bay. 

QB Carson Palmer looked much better and he’ll now look to take advantage of this suspect Rams’ secondary. 

The Rams stumbled out of the gate against the Jaguars last weekend, but recovered in the second half for an impressive victory of their own. 

But strictly from a trend based stand-point, there’s no question that this one heavily favors the visitors today, as Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game, while the Rams are a brutal 0-5 ATS in their last five against the NFC West.

This one has the feel of whichever team has the ball in its hands last will find a way to win this game. And in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the underdog. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Indianapolis Colts (8:30 EST).

The 2-3 Colts are in Tennessee to take on the 2-3 Titans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Indianapolis comes in off a confidence building 26-23 OT win over San Francisco, while Tennessee looked horrible in its 16-10 road loss in Miami last weekend.

If recent history is any precedence, then the Colts have to be liking their chances today, as they’ve won 11 straight in the series, including a a 24-17 home victory in the most recent matchup.

Of course, most/all of those games in that win streak were started by either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. Regardless, I absoultely believe that the visitors have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

So far the Colts average 19.4 PPG and allow 32.8 The team looked better last week though, winning the yardage battle 447-402 and had a sizeable advantage in time of possession, going 37:17 to 31:05. 

Indaianpolis QB Jacoby Brissett so far has 997 yards, two TD’s and three INT’s. Brissett though is learning on the fly and has definitely looked stronger with each outing. Frank Gore leads the ground game with 239 yards and two major scores thus far.

Tennessee averages 22 PPG and allows 28.4. Last week the Titans gave up six sacks, while also committing 11 penalties. 

Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota has 792 yards, three TD’s and three INT’s thus far, while also posting 116 yards rushing and three more scores on the ground. He missed the Miami game, but is expected to start here. If he does play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity.

And if he doesn’t play, then Matt Cassel will get the call, so far he has 162 yards, a TD and two INT’s this season. RB DeMarco Murray has 273 yards and one TD.

I’ll point out though that Indianapolis is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

Mariota’s health? It’s definitely a big question mark for this one. I think Brissett can keep his team competitive, so grab up those points!

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST).

The 0-5 Cleveland Browns never expected to make the playoffs this season, but they also weren’t expecting things to be quite this bad. 

While the Browns are now already “looking ahead” until next year, I still think they offer plenty of value in this spot.

Cleveland is most recently coming off a hard-fought setback at home to the Jets, while Houston was smashed by the Cheifs in the Sunday nighter, losing star defensive player JJ Watt for the season again to injury in the process.

The Browns once again turn to rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who has three TD’s and nine INT’s thus far. QB Kevin Hogan could see time though as well and so far he has 377 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s on the season. 

The good thing though is that Cleveland faces another rookie QB in DeShaun Watson this weekend, Clearly Watson is further along with his progression than Kizer at the moment, but it’s not like he’s going up against an Aaron Rodgers or anything this afternoon.

It’s interesting to note as well that the Browns are 2-1 ATS in their last three against the AFC South, while Houston is already just 1-2 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year.

After the humbling loss to Kansas City, not only does this set up as a letdown spot for the home side, but with its bye coming next week, it also sets up as a look ahead spot. 

While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Browns.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New England Patriots (1:00 EST).

Both division rivals sit at 3-2 to open the season, but for a number of different reaosns I think this one favors the visiting side.

After falling at home 33-30 to Carolina, the Pats bounced back with a solid 19-14 road win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. 

Pats’ QB Tom Brady was 30 of 40 for 303 yards, one TD and one INT last week. New England also posted 113 yards on the ground. 

New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is not taking the Jets’ defense lightly: “They’re a really hard-nosed, tough, physical team,” McDaniels assessed. “They know us very well. We know them. They’ve got a physical front. They’ve got a very talented front. They’ve got speed at linebacker. They’ve got length on the edge. They’ve got some really, really talented inside players with (defensive linemen Leonard) Williams, (Muhammad) Wilkerson, (and Steve) McLendon. Those guys are tough to block and do a really good job for them inside. And they’ve got some new guys in the secondary that this will be our first opportunity to play against them and get to know them this week with (safeties Marcus) May and (Jamal) Adams. (Cornerback Morris) Claiborne we’ve played against before, but not as a Jet. So this is a new group; a physical bunch.”

The Jets offense took a hit when RB Bilal Powell strained a calf this weekend, making him day-to-day. Starting RB Matt Forte is already out with turf toe. If either manages to suit up for this one, clearly they’re not going to be at 100% capacity.

I’ll also point out that the Patriots have in fact excelled in this spot for bettors over the years, going 7-1 ATS in their last eight against teams with winning records (they’re also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games overall.)

Additionally note that the Jets are interestingly just 1-5 ATS in their last six after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their previous game. 

Brandin Cooks already has 18 catchs for 379 yards and two TD’s for New England this year and Brady has shown no signs of slowing down.

After a couple of mediocre performances in a row, I look for this high-powered New England offense to finally get untracked. Lay the points with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 6 Las Vegas Insider is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

The Lions opened the 2017 season with a 35-23 home win over the Cardinals and followed with a 24-10 MNF win at the NY Giants in Week 2. However, neither of those wins look very impressive now and Detroit will head to New Orleans having lost two of its last three, needing a win to not fall back to .500 at 3-3. Meanwhile, the Saints opened the 2017 season with double-digit losses at Minnesota (29-19) and home to New England (36-20) but then shocked the Panthers 34-13 in Carolina in Week 3 before shutting out the Dolphins 2-0 in London during Week 4. New Orleans was one of four teams with a Week 5 bye and now welcomes the Lions to the Superdome, a team which has beaten them in each of the last three seasons, 24-23 in Detroit in 2014, then 35-27 and 28-13 the last two years here in New Orleans.

The Lions hosted the Panthers last Sunday, entering that game surviving by being extremely opportunistic on both sides of the ball, Detroit was averaging 24.8 PPG but just 299.8 YPG in total offense plus was allowing just 17.5 PPG (4th-best), despite ranking 15th in total defense. The team's plus-9 turnover margin had played a huge role in the team reaching 3-1. However, the Lions could not force a single TO against the Panthers, as Cam Newton ripped Detroit's pass D for 355 yards and three TDs. The Lions gained only 192 yards of offense on their own, going 5 of 13 on third down tries (0-1 on 4th-down). QB Stafford is completing 64.6% with nine TDs and just one INT but the Lions rank just 23rd in passing (200.6 YPG). RB Ameer Abdullah had a career-high 94 yards in the Week 4 win at Minnesota but is averaging just 48.5 YPG on the ground in Detroit's other four games, as the team ranks 26th in rushing on the season at 87.6 YPG. 

If the Lions think that they can win by forcing Brees into mistakes, they had better think again. New Orleans' age-less QB hasn't thrown an interception in 152 attempts this season, while passing for eight TDs (108.3 QB rating) and leading the Saints to average 276.5 YPG through the air (ranks 4th). In fact, the Saints have yet to commit a single TO through four games, only the third NFL team since 1935 to open the season in such a manner! As for the New Orleans' D, talk about turnarounds! The Saints allowed a league-worst 777 passing yards and tied for the league lead with six TD passes allowed in opening 0-2. However, they then hen they flipped the switch, becoming the only NFL team that didn’t allow a TD pass in Weeks 3 or 4. That Week 3 game came against Cam Newton and the Panthers and while Newton shredded the Lions last Sunday in Detroit  for 355 yards and three TDs, the Saints held him to 167 yards with no TD passes and three INTs on his home field (QB rating of 43.8)!

In Weeks 1 & 2 the Saints allowed 11 passing plays of 24-plus yards and 23 passing plays of 15-plus yards but in Weeks 3 & 4, they allowed one passing play of 24-plus yards and six of 15-plus yards. The Lions are overrated and while I'm not completely sold on the Saints as of yet, they have the advantage of an extra week of rest coming into this one off that London game. Lay the points!

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).

The Falcons are rested, coming off their bye week and I look for them to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

Atlanta will be especially motivated here as well after falling to the Bills in their last outing.

Conversely, Miami comes in contented after its two-game slide ended with a win over the Titans.

Despite that 16-10 victory though, the Fish have scored a grand total of 41 points through the first four games and QB Jay Cutler has for the most part struggled. 

Note that the Miami offense was shutout by the Saints earlier in the year.

The bye couldn’t have come at a better time for the Falcons though: “It’s a perfect time for us to reset,” head coach Dan Quinn noted. “For whatever reason, the bye hit us at the right time based on some injuries. It was great to have those guys back.” (Julio Jones, OT Ryan Schraeder, LB Vic Beasley and safety Ricardo Allen.)

I’ll point out as well that the Dolphins are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against clubs with winning records, while the Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five following their bye-week.

Cutler is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game, which clearly doesn’t bode well in this hostile environment.

With a week to re-focus and plan for this one, all signs point to an epic lop-sided destruction. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (8:25 EST).

The short week almost always favors the home side and I believe that’s going to be the case here.

The Eagles are 4-1 SU/ATS, while the Panthers are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. 

Philadelphia cruised to a 34-7 win over the Cardinals last weekend, while Carolina won 27-24 in Detroit for a second straight road victory. 

The Eagles are flying high, but let’s not get too carried away as their level of competition has been very low, beating the Giants 27-24 and the Chargers 26-24. Clearly the Cardinals have major issues as well. 

In my opinion Philadelphia has yet to be tested this year, something which is about to change this weekend. 

Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz was 21 of 30 for 304 yards and four TD’s last week, while RB LeGarrette Blount had 74 yards on 14 carries. 

Philadelphia is averaging 397.8 YPG and conceding 346. Carolina is averaging 327.2 YPG and conceding 274 (ranked third.) 

Panthers’ QB Cam Netwon had 355 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s last week. RB Christian McCaffrey caught a TD pass in that one.

Philadelphia though has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 3-7 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite of three points or less.

As mentioned off the top, this is going to be the best defense that Wentz has seen all season and ultimately I think the opportunistic home side unit will prove to be be the difference maker in this contest. 

I’m laying the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Bears (8:30 EST).

The Vikings are 2-2 SU/ATS while the Bears are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS.

Minnesota comes in off a listless 14-7 loss at home to Detroit. Starting QB Sam Bradford is listed as day-to-day with a knee injury. If Bradford does suit up for this one, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity. 

The Vikes also lost rookie RB Dalvin Cook to a torn ACL last week when he fumbled the ball, a costly turnover which led to a Lions’ TD. 

Once Cook went down, the offense stalled and suffice it to say, I think that’s going to be the case again on Monday night. 

Minnesota’s backup QB Case Keenum was 16 of 30 for 210 yards.

Chicago enters off a 35-14 loss at Green Bay with QB Mike Glennon under center in that one. Glennon is out for this one though, as the Bears turn to rookie Mitch Trubisky. 

Trubisky showed a lot of promise in the preseason and he’ll have a big opportunity here facing this less than 100% Vikings squad. The Bears’ pass defense was a bright spot in last week’s loss, holding Aaron Rodgers to just 179 passing yards (although he did throw four TD’s.)

Trubisky will be leaning heavily on RB Jordan Howard, who has 302 yards and four TD’s. 

Chicago’s defense is going to be a big difference maker in my opinion though, as it allows 220.8 YPG through the air and just 85.5 YPG on the ground. 

And that’s bad news for Minnesota’s offense in my opinion, as right now the unit is a disaster. Trubisky is a rookie, but Vikes’ coach Mike Zimmer doesn’t have a lot of game tape on the kid yet. I think the door is wide open for an outright upset. That said, I’ll grab the points in the end.

Good luck….Larry

My 8* NFL Week 5 Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET.

Four weeks into the 2017 season, four teams remain win-less. The list includes the Browns, Chargers, Giants and Niners. Two of those teams, the now-LA Chargers and the NY Giants, will go head-to-head at MetLife Stadium in Week 5 with one team (barring a tie), getting off the schnied. The Chargers' schnied is quite a bit 'bigger' than the Giants', as while New York made the postseason in 2016 (lost badly at Green Bay in the wild card round), the Chargers are coming off a season in which the team was 5-11 and lost its final five games. That means the Chargers enter this game on a nine-game losing streak, with an 0-8-1 ATS record, as well (Opening Week push at the Broncos in 2017 is LA's lone non-loss ATS in that stretch).

The Chargers narrowly lost to the Eagles 26-24 last Sunday, the team's third straight home contest. QB Philip Rivers threw for 347 yards and two TDs (covering 22 and 38 yards) on 22 of 38 passing. The Chargers had a pair of 100-yard receivers, as Keenan Allen (24 catches on the season) caught five balls for 138 yards, while Tyrell Williams caught five passes for 115 yards. RB Melvin Gordon struggled once again (10 carries for just 22 yards) and has only 168 yards (3.1 YPC) after four games. LA is averaging only 67.5 YPG (3.6 YPC), which ranks 29th among the NFL's 32 teams. LA's offense wasn't the problem in Week 4, as the defense allowed 454 yards of total offense, while being dominated in the time of TOP battle, allowing Philly to hold onto the ball for just over 39 of the game's 60 minutes.

The Giants also lost a close one in Week 4, 25-23 at Tampa Bay, when the Buccaneers kicked a game-winning 34-yard FG on the contest's final play. Eli Manning completed 30 of 49 pass for 288 yards and two TDs (no INTs) plus added a 14-yard TD run. Wayne Gallman led the team with 42 rushing yards on 11 carries but on the season, the Giants have run the ball worse than the Chargers, averaging only 59.3 YPG (3.2 YPC) to rank 31st. The Giants D allowed only 17.8 PPG in 2016, tops in the NFC and second-best in the entire NFL to New England. However, the Giants allowed the Bucs 434 yards of total offense, despite the Giants offense holding onto the ball for over 34 minutes. New York checks in allowing 23.8 PPG through four games, which is SIX points higher than last season's average.

The Chargers actually may get get more crowd support at MetLife than they do in their own StubHub Center, as it's quickly become obvious that the LA fans have shown little or no interest in welcoming the team from San Diego. As for New York fans, the team's 0-4 start has made “Fire Ben McAdoo” a popular search topic on Google. Both teams have significant issues but "someone has to win!" My bet says it's the Giants, as Eli has a plethora of receiving options in WRs like OBJ, Shepard and Marshall plus rookie TE Engram. New York also just may be able to get a running game going against a Chargers rush D which is allowing 163.5 YPPG (31st) on 4.8 YPC. The Giants WON'T be making the postseason in 2017 but after an 0-4 start, ENOUGH is ENOUGH!

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST).

The Bills are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS, while the Bengals are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. Clearly not many would have predicted that this would be the case for these teams at this point of the season.

Buffalo looks primed for a letdown here though after its big 23-17 road win against the Falcons. It’s hard to win on the road. It’s even harder to win back-tp-back road games, let alone cover both as well.

The Bills have come a long way no doubt, but they now face a super hungry Bengals team which comes in off its first win of the year after downing the Browns 31-17 last weekend.

Note that Cincinnati plays with revenge here as well after Buffalo won 16-12 on the road last season. 

Buffalo took advantage of an injured Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu last week. QB Tyrod Taylor was an unimpressive 12 of 20 for 182 yards, a TD.

The Bills have looked good, not great in my opinion. 

The Bengals have obviously looked pretty bad, but they sure looked a lot better in last week’s victory over Cleveland. 

QB Andy Dalton was 25 of 30 for 286 yards, four TD’s and zero INT’s. After a slow start, Dalton now has six TD’s over his last two games. WR AJ Green had five catches for 63 yards and a TD. 

The Bengals’ have looked much better defensively as well after a slower start to the season, last week allowing only 215 total yards, including just 45 rushing. 

A great situational play in my opinion. Buffalo gets caught “looking ahead” to its bye-week, while the desperate home side puts the foot on the gas from start to finish. Play on the Bengals.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).

The 49ers are 0-4 SU and 3-1 ATS, while the Colts are just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS.

San Fran looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its deflating 18-15 OT road loss to Arizona last week. 

After beating Cleveland at home, the Colts fell 46-18 in Seattle last weekend. 

So far the 49ers are ranked 26th in the league in scoring at 16.5 PPG, while ranked 24th in the league on the defensive side in conceding 23.5. QB Brian Hoyer was 24 of 49 for 234 yards and an INT last week. The defense looked decent, limiting the Cardinals to just 51 yards on the ground.

Indianapolis is ranked 25th in scoring with 17.8 PPG, while ranked 32nd in the league on the defensive side in conceding 34.0 PPG.

Colts’ QB Jacoby Brissett was 16 of 29 for 157 yards, a TD and an INT last week. 

Indianapolis actually led the game 15-10 at the break, before then falling apart in the second half. 

A couple of really lousy teams going head-to-head in this one, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be overlooked in this particular matchup.

I’ll also point out that San Francisco is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 against teams with losing records, while Indianapolis is 26-8 ATS in its last 24 in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Colts.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the surging visiting side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

Carolina beat the Pats on the road 33-30 last weekend, while Detroit comes in off a listless 14-7 win over the Vikings. 

Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had three TD passes and also ran another one in on the ground. The defense looked a little suspect, but look at who the opponent was. The unit bent, but it did not break:

“It can be a catalyst, a stepping-stone,” Panthers’ Coach Ron Rivera assessed afterwards. “It kind of felt a little bit like what happened a couple of years ago when we went to Seattle. They were the watermark for us, as far as the NFC was concerned. So we were able to have success there, and from that point we had success.”

Detroit was trailing 7-3 at half time last week, before coming back in the second half for the victory. So far the Lions have looked good, not great in my opinion.

Additionally I’ll point out that Carolina is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 250 or more passing yards in its previous contest, while Detroit is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten after allowing 15 points or less in its previous outing. 

I like Newton to build off his last performance and give the Lions’ defense everything it can handle. Play on Carolina.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:25 EST).

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the improving home side to give the defending champs everything they can handle today. 

The Pats are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, while Tampa is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS.

It’s a short-week, which almost always benefits the home side (for obvious reasons.)

Last week the Bucs came from behind to beat the Giants 25-23, while New England comes to town off a humbling 33-30 setback at home to Carolina.

New England’s defense is a mess right now and I don’t foresee things getting easier in this hostile environment. The Pats’ struggled against the mobile Cam Newton, allowing him to throw for 316 yards and a three TD’s, as well as rush for 44 and another major score. Remember, the Pats also gave up 44 points to the Chiefs on Opening Night (I had KC in that one.)

And that doesn’t bode well facing the extremely mobile Jameis Winston who was 22 of 38 for 332 yards and three TD’s with no picks last week. RB Jacquizz Rodgers added 83 yards on the ground. 

The Bucs’ defense looked stout as well, allowing just 379 yards to the Giants.

Winston isn’t getting nearly enough respect in my opinion, as he’s going to be able to pick apart this Pats’ suspect secondary. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Buccaneers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST).

Washington is 2-1 SU/ATS, while Kansas City is 3-0 SU/ATS. 

I base my picks on many different things. For the most part with this selection, I simply feel it sets up great for Kansas City.

The Redskins are coming off back-to-back wins, including a satisfying 27-10 victory over the Raiders at home last Sunday night.

With its “bye” coming next week, it’s not too hard to imagine at all Washington getting caught “looking ahead” in some small way to its time off.

Conversely the Chiefs are on the road again next week for a tough one against suddenly surging Houston, making tonight’s contest all that much more important. 

As I said, from an overall situational stand point, they don’t get much better than this. 

If we look at what each of these teams have done over the first three weeks, clearly they’re very evenly matched up and down the board and on both ends of the field. 

Redskins’ QB Kirk Cousins and Chiefs’ pivot Alex Smith are a “wash.” The defenses have been probably even better than the offenses (and the offenses have been getting great production, both through the air on the ground.)

Two even teams, but the overall “situation” greatly favors the home side. I’ll also point out that the Redskins are in fact just 1-3 ATS in their last four after allowing ten points or more in their previous contest, while KC is 6-4 ATS in its last ten off a win against a division rival.

I expect KC to take advantage of the above listed factors and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NON-CONFERENCE BLOWOUT is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:30 EST).

Both teams enter at 1-2 SU, however the Seahawks are 0-3 ATS, while the Colts are 2-1 ATS.

Many experts believed the Seahwawks would be in the Super Bowl this year, but clearly the team has issues in all three phases right now. The offense has been anemic, especially in the red zone. The defense has been decent, but has been susceptible to giving up the big play.

However, the Andrew Luck-less Colts come to town contented after their first win of the season, holding off the Browns 31-28 at home last weekend. 

The Seahawks will now be looking to take advantage of this complacency and take out their frustrations after falling 33-27 on the road at Tennessee.

Indy forced three turnovers last Sunday, but it’s still just ranked 20th in scoring offense with 17.7 PPG, The defense is the worst in the entire league though, conceding 31 PPG thus far.

QB Jacoby Brissett is 39 of 64 for 526 yards, one TD and one INT, while RB Frank Gore leads the ground attack with 145 yards and two TD’s. 

Seattle averages just 16 PPG so far, but it’s ranked eighth overall in scoring defense in conceding 19.7 PPG.

Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 729 yards, five TD’s and no INT’s, while adding another 100 yards rushing as well. Doug Baldwin is Wilson’s top target with 20 catches for 212 yards and a TD. 

I’ll point out that Indianapolis has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors for a while though, going just 1-7 ATS in its last eight after scoring more than 30 points in its last game, while also going 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU victory.

Conversely, Seattle has excelled in this position by going 5-1 ATS in its last six home games against a club with a losing record.

There’s no team in the league right now that’s under-performed more than the Seahawks to this point. Clearly they can’t be happy whatsoever. 

But here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against. The Colts picked up their backup QB just before the season began. Beating the Browns at home is one thing, but competing with this highly motivated Seahawks team which is playing with a chip on its shoulder in front of the home town crowd is quite another. 

I have a hard time seeing the Colts mustering much offense this week and I expect Wilson to finally have a break out signature performance. Lay the points with confidence, play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 4:05 ET.

It's Week 4 of the 2017 NFL season but Tampa Bay has played just two games (1-1), as its Week 1 contest against Miami was postponed due to Hurricane Irma. The Buccaneers welcome the win-less NY Giants (0-3) to Raymond James Stadium this Sunday for a game in which it's fair to say, both teams badly need to win. The Giants are looking to avoid an 0-4 start for the first time since 2013 and a loss here would all but 'bury' them in an NFC East division in which all three rivals sit 2-1 after three games. Expectations for the Bucs were high coming into 2017 but in the NFC South, the Falcons are already 3-0 and the Panthers 2-1, so a 1-2 start to a season in which the team will play the rest of the year without the benefit of bye, would likely not bode well.

The Giants' offense finally got going in the fourth quarter last Sunday, as Eli threw three TD passes and New York rallied for 24 points. However, Philadelphia PK Jake Elliott's made a 61-yard FG on the game's final play, giving the Eagles the 27-24 win. The Giants hadn't scored 20 points in eight straight games before Manning led them to 21 points in a span of 5:21. He tossed TD passes of 10 yards and four yards to Odell Beckham Jr. to tie it at 14. Manning then connected over the middle to Shepard, who broke a couple tackles and sprinted all the way for a 21-14 lead. However, it was all for naught, as Elliott, who hadn't made a FG of more than 40 yards in an NFL game prior to Sunday, connected on the longest game-winner in NFL history for a rookie and a franchise record for Philly (it's tied for the third-longest game-winning kick in the final 10 seconds in NFL history!). The Giants own the NFL's worst rushing offense (48.7 YPG) and so far, its defense has not looked like the dominating unit from 2016.

Tampa Bay also owns a poor running game, averaging just 71.5 YPG (26th). QB QB Jameis Winston has completed 65.7 percent of his passes for 532 yards with three TDs and three interceptions. However, as we saw against the Vikings last Sunday, he still has a tendency to force the ball into tight windows (Minny had three INTs!). The Tampa Bay defense has to be a worry, as last week it allowed a whopping 494 yards to a Minnesota team with Case Keenum at QB (entered the game 9-16 as an NFL starter). Keenum threw for 369 yards and three TDs (zero INTs), completing 25 of 33. Are you kidding me? The week before, the Bucs faced former QB Mike Glennon (was 5-14 as a NFL starter entering that contest), now with the Bears.

Against those two "marginal" QBs (I'm being kind here), the Bucs have allowed 329.5 YPG passing after two games, ranking 31st of 32 teams. Also, the pass rush has produced just one sack. Eli's OL is a worry but the Bucs don't seem all that suited to pressure him. The Giants came excruciatingly close to their first victory last Sunday and the team will either bounce-back from that near-win, or let it derail its season with another losing effort. Considering that Tampa Bay is just 2-8 ATS it last 10 as a home favorite, my bet says the Giants rebound.

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets (1:00 EST).

Both teams come off victories. Jacksonville smashed Baltimore 44-7 in London last week. Now the Jags have to transition back to America for another road game and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable “letdown” in this spot.

Conversely, New York is primed for another big effort here after knocking off the Dolphins 20-6 at home last Sunday.

Jags’ QB Blake Bortles had 244 passing yards and four TD’s last weekend, while the Jacksonville defense held the Ravens scoreless until the final possession of the game. RB Leonard Fournette had 59 rushing yards and a TD as well. 

Jacksonville looked great in an opening week win over Houston as well, only to then lay an egg at home in Week 2 against the Titans. Consistency from week to week is still a problem in my opinion.

The Jets held the Dolphins to just 225 total yards and I think the unit is going to have another big day against the road weary Jags’ offense. New York QB Josh McCown had 249 passing yards and a TD, while RB Bilal Powell added 37 rushing yards and a TD. 

The Jets would completely shut down the Dolphins run game, holding Jay Ajayi to 16 yards on 11 carries. 

I’ll point out as well that the Jags are in fact 0-2 ATS in their last two as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New York is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the same points range.

Bortles had a big game last week, but I think he stumbles here against this vastly underrated Jets’ defensive unit. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST).

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, as I expect the home side to keep this one competitive from start to finish.

The Bengals are getting too much respect in this position, considering their 0-3 in my opinion. QB Andy Dalton has been poor with 606 yards, two TD’s and four INT’s. 

Browns’ rookie QB DeShone Kizer can empathize, he has 646 yards, three TD’s and seven INT’s. 

The Bengals fell 27-24 in OT in Green Bay on Sunday, blowing a late 21-7 lead. Dalton had 212 passing yards and two TD’s. WR AJ Green was a bright spot with 111 receiving yards and a TD. 

Cincinnati though lost the yardage battle 344-301.

The Browns also come in off a nali-biting loss, falling 31-28 to the Colts in OT on Sunday. 

Expectations and pressure is a lot lower on Kizer and company than Dalton and his crew, so the setback is clealry a positive for this young Browns team. Kizer did finish with 242 passing yards and two TD’s (also three INT’s.)

Duke Johnson Jr. had 81 yards on six catches for the Browns, while Kenny Britt had 54 yards and a TD. 

The Browns offense can put points on the board and the team is just as skilled as the Bengals are in all three phases. As mentioned off the top, with the way that Dalton is playing right now, I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset in this one (but as also mentioned above, make sure to grab the points!)

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST).

I use many different techniques when handicapping throughout the season. Sometimes for me its all about the players on the field, but other times its about stats or situations.

And that for the most part is the case here. The Ravens are coming off a humiliating 44-7 loss in England and while they looked great over their first two games, I think they’re set up for another letdown here after transitioning back State side. 

The Steelers are also coming off a loss, falling 23-17 in OT to lowly Chicago.

QB Ben Roethlisberger was 22 of 29 for 235 yards and a TD, while also adding a six-yard rush and losing a fumble.

Roethlisberger has been decent, but not great to open the season. But with Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and pass-catching RB Le’Veon Bell, I think it’s just a matter of time before “Big Ben” returns to form.

After two decent outings, Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco was a disaster last weekend, completing eight passes for 28 yards and two INT’s. 

Flacco is playing behind a banged-up offensive line and it was finally exposed in this one as he was forced to continually settle for check downs. Note that the Ravens only scored on the final possession of the game, long after backup Ryan Mallett had taken over. 

The Steelers did play well defensively last week and I think that’s going to spell big trouble once again for Flacco and company this afternoon.

Additionally I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is interestingly 5-3 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of October, while Baltimore is just 1-7 ATS in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Steelers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Green Bay Packers (8:25 EST).

Lambeau is a tough spot to play in and suffice it to say, I think the Bears are going to predictably stumble here.

Chicago looks primed for a letdown after its upset win at home over Pittsburgh last week. Green Bay also won in OT, coming from behind to knock off the Bengals 27-24 at home.

Purely from a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one favors the Packers. Both teams off hard-fought OT victories, now have to transition to the short week for the nationally televised Thursday night game. The short week almost always favors the home side and certainly in this spot, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has an immense amount of experience in these scenarios.

The Bears got 138 rushing yards from Jordan Howard in their upset victory over Pittsburgh. Chicago’s passing game has been a disaster though because of injury. QB Mike Glennon was 19 of 22 for 101 yards last week and was also sacked twice and threw a pick.

That type of play simply isn’t going to get the job done this week against a now re-focused Packers team led by Rogers, who had 313 yards with three TD’s last Sunday. The running game looked weak, but the defense was decent in holding the Bengals to just 301 total yards. 

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 on the road, while Green Bay is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 in front of the home town crowd.

I think the Bears are content with their big victory, while the Packers are eager to atone for their near upset loss last Sunday. Lay the points with confidence, play on Green Bay.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Arizona Cardinals (8:30 EST).

Both teams come into this at 1-1 SU. The Cards have yet to play a home game, so there’s no question that that atmosphere is going to be electric in the building tonight. 

The Cowboys didn’t do so well in a similar environment, albeit at Mile High on Sunday Night last weekend, getting crushed 42-17 by the Broncos. 

After losing in Detroit in Week 1, Arizona finally got untracked and posted a victory in Indianapolis last weekend. 

The Cowboys’ offensive line was a strength last year, but it looked shaky last Sunday. In fact, the entire Dallas offensive unit looked out of sorts. 

The defense is also now a major issue, with several key injuries in the secondary.

And that doesn’t bode well facing Carson Palmer at home. Palmer had 332 passing yards last week to go along with a TD and INT. 

Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott threw two INT’s last week and he faces another stiff test, as last weekend the Cardinals allowed 190 passing yards and just 76 rushing yards.

I’ll point out that Dallas is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games, while the underdog is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SUPER SHOCKER is on the Washington Redskins (8:30 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I think the home side will at the very least, take this one down to the wire. 

This is a long trip for the Raiders to make cross country. Throw in the national spot light and there’s no doubt that this one favors the Redskins from a situational stand point.

Oakland comes in off a 45-20 win over the Jets at home on Sunday, while Washington enters off a hard-fought 27-20 road victory over the Rams (which seems even more impressive now after what LA put up against San Francisco on Thursday night.)

So far the Raiders are 14th in the league in passing with 240 yards per contest and lead the league overall in scoring with 33.5 PPG. The defense is ranked tenth in conceding 18 PPG. QB Derek Carr has 492 yards, five TD’s and no INT’s so far this year. 

RB Marshawn Lynch has 121 yards and a TD thus far. 

Washington had 229 rushing yards against LA, while throwing just 27 passes. The Redskins got two turnovers and committed zero. 

So far Washington is ranked 13th in scoring with 22 points per game and 26th on the defensive side in conceding 25. QB Kirk Cousins has 419 yards with two TD’s and no INT’s. Cousins is surrounded by a bunch of offensive weapons on the ground and in the receiving game. 

I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Washington is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 when playing the role of underdog.

I think the Raiders finally stumble here and I expect Cousins to have his best game of the year to this point. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:05 EST).

The Seahawks enter off a hard-fought 12-6 win over San Francisco, which now doesn’t seem so bad after what the 49ers put up against the Rams on Thusday night, while the Titans got the better of Jacksonville 37-16 on the road. 

The Hawks struggled in their opening game in Green Bay and then had to hold on for dear life against the 49ers. So far Seattle’s defense has been stout and will remain a strength of the team moving forward (13 PPG conceded thus far.) 

QB Russell Wilson was 23 of 49 for 198 yards and a TD last weekend. So far Wilson has struggled this season.

The silver lining for the Hawks’ offense last week was that it did have 131 rushing yards.

Tennessee looked poor against Oakland and great against Jacksonville. So how should we judge the Titans at this point?

It’s difficult and the sample size is too small. We’ll absolutely have a much better idea where the team truly stands after this weekend though. The Seahawks are a dangerous team, one which will be getting after Titants’ QB Macus Mariota throughout. 

Wilson will also be looking to atone for some early lacklustre play.

Additionally I’ll point out that Seattle is 2-1 ATS in its last three off a win against a division rival, while Tennessee is 0-2 ATS in its last two in the same position.

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Seahawks.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the Ind Colts at 1:05 ET.

The Browns and Colts meet Sunday at the Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, with both teams looking to avoid 0-3 starts to the 2017 season. The Browns fought hard in a season-opening 21-18 home loss to the Steelers but were much worse last Sunday, losing 24-10 in Baltimore to the Ravens. The Colts 'flipped that script,' getting routed 46-9 out in LA against the Rams in Week 1, before losing 16-13 in OT last Sunday at home to the Arizona Cardinals. 

Browns rookie QB DeShone Kizer had a solid season debut, going 20 of 30 for 222 yards with one TD and one INT (85.7 QB rating), while also adding 17 rushing yards and a TD run. However, he suffered through a 'nightmare' of a game this past Sunday, interrupted with a migraine headache in the second quarter after four ineffective series; a three-and-out, a lost fumble, an interception and a punt. Kevin Hogan replaced him and went 5 of 11 for 118 yards with one TD and one INT. Kizer said the headaches are hereditary and that he hasn't had one crop up in a game since high school. He received medication, underwent concussion protocol, and finally received clearance to return in the third quarter with Baltimore up 21-10. He would finish 15 of 31 for 182 yards without a TD pass, three INTs and a lost fumble (27.3 QB rating). Once again, the Browns are showing no signs of a running game, averaging 75.0 YPG on 3.3 YPC. A silver lining is a defense that's allowed 22.5 PPG on 313.5 YPG, after allowing 28.3 PPG on 392.4 YPG last season.

Luck remains sidelined and the Colts decided that Scott Tolzein was not an option, so the quickly traded for New England's Jacoby Brissett. It was anybody’s guess as to how Brissett would play because last week was his first week that he ran the first-team offense in practice. He was still wearing a wristband with the play calls on it during the games. However, all in all, he showed plenty of promise. Yes, the interception he threw in OT set up the Cards' game-winning FG but as RB Frank Gore noted, "He's going to be just fine. He played the with type of confidence where you would have never guessed he’s only been here for a little bit.” Brissett was 22 of 40 for 267 yards, zero TDs and that one 'killer' interception. After allowing 46 points against the Rams, the Colts D held the Cards to just 16 points.

The Indianapolis Colts need a victory here in order to avoid their first 0-3 start since the 2011 season and the Browns could play the perfect foil. Cleveland is off a 1-15 season and enters on a 14-game road losing streak, last winning a road game back in October of 2015! I realize that Brissett has thrown 92 passes in the regular season without a TD pass but he's got an excellent target in T.Y. Hilton plus TE Doyle has 10 catches (on just 11 targets) in his first two games. As for the Colts D, if it can hold the Cards to 16 points (in OT), the struggling Browns shouldn't be much of a problem. The fact that the Colts have won SEVEN of their last eight games against the Browns, makes taking Indy even easier, as does the fact that Cleveland is just 1-20 SU in its last 21 road games!

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Denver Broncos (1:00 EST).

Denver comes in with a ton of momentum after destroying the Cowboys 42-17 last week.

Buffalo though has for the most part been a disaster after two weeks, barely holding on for a victory over the lowly Jets in Week 1, before suffering a 9-3 loss to Carolina last weekend (lucky in my opinion to have even covered the spread in that one.) 

Broncos’ QB Trevor Simien decimated the Cowboys vaunted defense for 231 passing yards and four TD’s to just one INT. RB CJ Anderson had 118 rushing yards on 25 carries. WR Demaryius Thomas had six catches for 71 yards. 

Both the run game and the passing game are firing on all cylinders right now for Denver.

But not to be outdone, the Broncos look even better on the defensive side of the ball, last week holding the Cowboys offense to a mere 268 total yards, including RB Ezekiel Elliot to just eight yards on nine carries. Von Miller was impressive with two sacks and two tackles for a loss. 

Bills’ QB Tyrod Taylor was just 17 of 25 for 126 passing yards, along with 55 rushing yards in last week’s pathetic effort. RB LeSean McCoy had a paltry nine yards on 12 carries. 

Buffalo’s silver lining so far this year has been on the defensive side of the ball, allowing a total of just 255 total yards last week and posting six sacks on Cam Newton.

But now that unit faces a white hot Broncos unit, one which I think will dominate and expose a group which has yet to be truly tested this year. 

I’ll point out as well that Devner is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four after accumulating more than 150 rushing yards in its previous game, while Buffalo is just 7-17 ATS in its last 24 after allowing 15 points or less in its previous contest.

Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish, play on the Broncos.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).

It’s a short week for Detroit, which beat the Giants on Monday night. Atlanta also comes in at 2-0, beating Chicago and then Green Bay (both convincingly.)

Atlanta has looked impressive in the early going, not succumbing to a “hang over” after last year’s devastating Super Bowl loss. Matt Ryan and the offense, both the receivers and RB’s, look like they haven’t lost a step whatsoever.

And the Falcons have also looked sharp defensively, coming out on top in two tough games to open the season.

Detroit has also looked good, getting by a struggling Giants team 24-10 on Monday. QB Matt Stafford was 15 of 21 for 122 yards and two TD’s. 

The Lions had the early lead and turned to the run game through most of it, accumulating 138 yards.

The defense looked stout as well by sacking Eli Manning five times and holding New York to 270 yards of offense. 

But stopping Manning and the Giants’ impotent offensive line is one thing, while slowing down the gun-slinging Matty Ice and the Falcons’ high-flying offense is quite another. 

I’ll point out as well that ATL is 8-2 ATS in its last ten road games, while Detroit is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven against the NFC.

The Falcons did a great job of containing Rodgers, so I have a hard time seeing Stafford doing much better. Atlanta could be a much bigger fav in this spot I think. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Francisco 49ers (8:25 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

The 49ers weren’t expecting to make the playoffs this year, but at 0-3 and with a three-game road trip on deck, Thursday night essentially becomes a “must win” game for San Francisco.

It’s a short week as well, which always favors the home side no matter the situation. 

LA looked good in beating an Andrew Luck-less Colts team, but came back down to Earth in last week’s 27-20 setback at home to the Redskins. 

There’s no question that the Rams look better under new coach Sean McVay, but they haven’t gotten around the corner quite yet.

LA QB Jared Goff was just 15 of 24 for 224 yards and one TD, while RB Todd Gurley had 88 yards and a score in last week’s setback.

In San Francisco’s 9-6 loss in Seattle QB Brian Hoyer was 15 of 27 for just 99 yards. However, RB Carlos Hyde had 124 yards on 15 carries. 

The big news of course was San Francisco’s defense though, which looked very good for a second straight week; make sure to keep your eyes on LB NaVorro Bowman, who had ten tackles on Sunday.

I’ll point out as well that the Rams are just 1-3 ATS in their last four as a road fav of three points or less, while the 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home dog of three points or less.

A great oveall “situational” play which is backed by strong and relevant trends. I like the more desperate team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 34-Club Play is on the New York Giants (8:30 EST).

I think New York is the more “desperate” side tonight and ultimately I believe this will prove to be a deciding factor in the final outcome of this game. 

The Giants came out flat in their 19-3 Opening Week loss to the Cowboys. That was without WR Odell Beckham Jr. though.

The Lions rallied from a 17-9 deficit in the third quarter to win 35-23 over the Cardinals in Week 1. 

But if recent history is any precedence though, then New York has to be liking its chances for a bounce back performance tonight,because when these teams met in December last year, it was the Giants which prevailed 17-6 at home.

Detroit QB Matt Stafford was 29 of 41 for 292 yards, four TD’s and a pick last week. The ground game did virtually nothing though, which does make the Lions’ offense very one-dimensional and thus, pretty easy to game-plan against (finished by averaging just 81.9 YPG on the ground last year.) Golden Tate was another standout with 107 yards receiving. 

Giants’ veteran QB Eli Manning had a terrible night in Week 1, finishing 29 of 38 for 220 yards and a pick. New York fell behind early and was forced to abandon the run. Manning himself was forced to throw a lot of short dump passes, as he was constantly under pressure. 

The silver lining for New York though was its overall play on the defensive end, holding Dallas to under 20 points and just 392 total yards of offense. 

I’ll also point out that Detroit is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 on the road and only 10-13 ATS when playing the role of underdog, while New York is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 at home and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite.

OBJ is back and that makes the Giants very dangerous offensively. Detroit’s achilles heel is its play on the road and I expect that to be the case again here.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Dallas Cowboys (4:25 EST).

Dallas looked dominant in all three phases in its victory over the Giants in Week 1, while the Broncos had to hold on for dear life in their Opening Week victory over division rival San Diego. 

The Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliot had 104 yards rushing and caught five passes for 36 yards last week. QB Dak Prescott was 24 of 39 for 268 yards and a TD to TE Jason Witten. 

Denver’ QB Trevor Simien was 17 of 28 for 219 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. RB CJ Anderson had 81 yards on 20 carries. 

The Broncos would also give up three TD passes to Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers, getting outscored 14-0 in the fourth quarter.

I’ll point out as well that Dallas is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 follwing a victory, while Denver is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against clubs with winning records.

Even though the Cowboys didn’t dominate offensively last week, the special teams and defense was on point. Denver on the other hand looked shaky offensively and then fell apart defensively down the stretch as well. That doesn’t bode well facing this dangerous and confident Cowboys side.

The correct call in this one is on Dallas.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 2 Las Vegas Insider is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET.

The Tennessee Titans went 9-7 last season, missing the postseason by losing a tie-breaker to the Houston Texans for the AFC South title. However, with Marcus Mariota coming off a solid season (19-10 TD to INT ratio) and RB Marco Murray running for 1,287 yards as both offensive stars operated behind an outstanding OL, many felt as if the Titans would be "the team to beat" in the AFC South in 2017. However, the Titans lost 26-16 at home to the Raiders last Sunday (note: the Raiders are a VERY good team!). As for the Jags, since an 8-8 season back in 2010, the team opened 2017 as the owners of six consecutive losing seasons, going 22-74 (.229), overall. So what did the Jags do last Sunday? Their D accumulated 10 sacks and held the Houston Texans (coming off back-to-back AFC South titles) to a single TD and 203 total yards in a dominating 29-7 victory. So much for preseason expectations.

That said, I'm not even close to ready to bail on the Titans after that opening-week loss. Mariota has the ability to wheel out of trouble unlike Houston's Savage and while Watson does have that ability, he came in down 19-0 and the Jags just "kept coming." In his first-ever regular season game, the rookie wasn't able to handle it. That WON'T be the case with Mariota. Also, no way Murray will be held to just 44 yards on 12 carries, again.

Fournette ran for 100 yards in his NFL debut, as the Jags ran the ball 39 times (155 rushing yards), against just 21 pass attempts. That allowed QB Blake Bortles, who was clearly on the 'hot seat' in the preseason (if Henne could play at all, he would have won the starting job!) to play without any real pressure. He was was mistake-free (no TOs) but completed 52.4% for a pathetic 125 yards (had one TD pass). That's what happens when your defense (10 sacks and 203 yards allowed) and running attack, controls the game.

I can't see Fournette having another big game against the Titans rush defense, as Tennessee allowed an average of 88.3 YPG on the ground in 2016, ranking second in the entire NFL (just 4.0 YPC). Let’s see how Bortles plays if Jacksonville has to play from behind? Series history is not on my side, as the home team has won six straight meetings between these two teams and eight of the last 10, overall (last time a road team won a game in this series was back in December of 2013!). However, I remain pretty high on the Titans and I won't forget that the Jags limped into this season 22-74 over their last six seasons. A surprising win in Week 1 of the 2017 season doesn't much change my feelings towards Jacksonville. I'll close by noting that the Jags have won back-to-back games just TWICE since the 2014 season. Give me the better team at this poinstspread.

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST).

Am I suggesting to you that you should “sprinkle a little on the money-line” in this one? Of course not. I do however think that the Browns can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

I think Baltimore comes in a bit complacent here after its big 20-0 road win over AFC North opponent Cincinnati last weekend. 

The Browns though almost shocked the Steelers in the 21-18 setback to Pittsburgh, getting great play from rookie QB DeShone Kizer and above average play from the defense.

Kizer was sacked seven times, but would finish 20 of 30 for 222 yards, one TD and one INT. Kizer though would also run for 17 yards and another major score. 

And as mentioned above, the defense was good, holding the Steelers to just 35 rushing yards (and that’s without top pick DE Myles Garrett in there.) 

Ravens’ QB Joe Flcco was 9 of 17 for 121 yards, one TD and a pick. Flacco though didn’t even attempt a pass in the second half, with the team focusing on the run after jumping out to the early lead. 

Baltimore’s defense looked fantastic as well, but it faces a much more versatile pivot this week. 

I’ll point out that Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road in this series, while Baltimore is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four off a straight-up victory of more than 14 points.

Kizer is a difference maker here. With a game under his belt, I think he’ll keep this one competitive. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Browns.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST).

While I’m not going to call for the outright victory, I do think that the hungry and motivated home side will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The crowd will be going crazy on Opening Night at the Mercedez-Benz Superdome against the defending champs.

The Pats were smashed 42-27 at home by the Chiefs last weekend and I think they look primed for another letdown here as well. 

New England’s vaunted defense would allow 537 yards, while QB Tom Brady was 16 of 36 for 267 yards and no TD’s. New receiver Brandin Cooks dropped four passes. 

New Orleans comes home off a tough 29-19 MNF setback to Minnesota. 

The Saints gave up 470 yards to the Vikes and allowed them to convert on 9 of 14 third down attempts. RB Adrian Peterson had just 18 yards on six carries. QB Drew Brees was 27 of 37 for 291 yards and a TD. 

I’ll point out that New England is just 1-2 ATS in its last three “dome” games, while New Orleans is 12-9 ATS in the same position (also interesting to note that the Saints are 2-0 ATS the last two seasons after playing on Monday Night Football.)

Does this game mean more to New England? Hardly! I like the home side to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST).

The Bucs haven’t played this year and don’t really know “what they have yet.” The Bears are 0-1 but came very close to upsetting the visiting Falcons last weekend in the eventual 23-17 setback.

While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do definitely expect the hungry visiting side to keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Tampa was scheduled to face Miami in Week 1, but Hurricane Irma postponed the game. Note that Chicago plays with revenge here as well after falling 36-10 in Tampa last November 13th.

Bears’ QB Mike Glennon was 26 of 40 for 213 yards and a touchdown, while rookie Tarik Cohen had 66 rushing yards and eight catches for 47 yards and a TD. The Falcons were the highest scoring team in the league last year, so the 372 yards given up has to also be looked at in a favorable light.

The Bucs turn to Jameis Winston, who had 4,090 yards, 28 touchdowns and 18 INT’s last season. The team acquired DeSean Jackson in the offseason as a big time playmaker, but with the team having to focus on “real life” issues the last couple of weeks, one has to wonder where Tampa Bay’s head is at right now?

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Tampa Bay is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a favorite in the same points range.

I think we have a battle on our hands here, not a blowout. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Cincinnati Bengals (8:25 EST).

Both teams are coming off disappointing Week 1 setbacks, as Houston fell 29-7 at home to Jacksonville, while Cincinnati would get shut out 20-0 at home to the Ravens. Note that the Bengals play with revenge here after falling 12-10 in Houston last year.

The Texans looked horrible on both sides of the ball last week. QB Tom Savage was sacked six times and had two fumbles, one which was returned for a TD. DeShaun Watson came in and he was 12 of 22 for 102 yards and one TD and one pick. In all though the offensive line gave up ten sacks.

The defense allowed rookie RB Leonard Fournette run for 100 yards on 26 carries and 155 yards overall, while coming up with a total of zero sacks and zero forced turnovers. 

The Bengals also looked brutal, with QB Andy Dalton going 16 of 31 for 170 yards, four INT’s and one fumble. The run game produced just 77 yards on 22 carries. 

The defense looked decent though, allowing a total of 268 yards overall. Linebacker Vincent Rey had 11 tackles. 

I’ll point out though that Houston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road (also 0-7 ATS in its last seven “Thursday” night games), while Cincinnati is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a loss against a division rival.

Dalton has the pedigree and track record to shake off one lousy game, while Watson will be starting his first ever profesionall football contest tonight. 

Houston would appear to be still “hung over” with having to deal with the Hurricane, while Cincinnati is focused and ready to atone for the pathetic Week 1 effort. Lay the points, play on the Bengals.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Denver Broncos (10:30 EST).

I’m playing both the side and the total in this game (the Broncos and the UNDER.) Divisional games are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home side. 

Both teams have many questions as the season gets underway. LA is in a new home and has a new head coach. 

Denver also has a new coach which hopes to get his new team back into the playoffs after missing for the first time since 2011.

Last year the Chargers were horrible on defense, allowing 26.4 PPG, ranked 29th overall. The team made some moves in the offseason to address these issues, including using a fourth and fifth round pick for the secondary. Clearly the unit catches a break in Week 1 though in facing the Broncos run first offense.

LA’s offense should once again make some noise this year with veteran QB Philip Rivers and RB Melvin Gordon, but clearly the unit faces a stiff task out of the gate in facing the Broncos elite defense on the road. 

And Denver’s defense is expected to be even better this eason with the additions of second round pick DE DeMarcus Walker and third round pick CB Brendan Langley. Last year the Broncos were fourth in the league in yards allowed. The pass defense was No. 1, holding teams to just 185.8 YPG.

And clearly that doesn’t bode well for Rivers on opening night. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting to see a lot of Gordon while the visitors are on offense.

The weakness for Denver is on the offensive side of the ball as the team will try to once and for all determine if Paxton Lynch or Trevor Siemian will earn the starters role. The team did however go out and sign Brock Osweiler as third stringer as well. 

It’s interesting to note that LA is a money-burning 3-3 ATS in its last six games played in the month of September, while Denver is 6-0 ATS in its last six games played in September.

I like the Broncos to step up defensively and do just enough on the offensive side to seal the ATS victory. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (7:10 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, as this one has the feeling of whichever team has the ball in its hands last will win type scenario.

New Orleans enters off three straight 7-9 seasons and will be looking to break that trend with a playoff ticket. Minnesota jumped out to a massive start last year, only to fall apart down the stretch and finish 8-8. 

The Saints’ issue the last few years has been on the defensive side of the ball as the offense has pretty much remained elite with veteran Drew Brees in the pocket. Last year Brees had 5,208 yards, 37 TD’s and 15 INT’s. RB Adrian Peterson will be out to make a statement against his former team tonight.

New Orleans used three of its first four picks on defensive players and brought in LB’s Manti Te’o and AJ Klein through free agency over the offseason, so the unit is now finally expected to make some strides this season.

Minnesota had a great defense last year, ranked sixth in points allowed at 19.2. The unit should once again be a strength of the team, but clearly it’s going to have its hands full with Brees and company right out of the gates.

The Vikes’ offense though was lousy and it’ll be a weak point again this season. The team did bring in WR Michael Floyd.

New Orleans’ offense is tried, tested and true. It’s never deviated from its domination over the last three years. The Vikes were fantastic defensively last year, but I think the book is out on the unit still until it can prove itself again this season. 

The Saints’ will likely be terrible defensively again this year, but that said, we should also now definitely see some improvement moving forward after the offseason re-tooling.

The Vikes’ offense is also a big question mark at the moment and that makes the Saints the correct call in this matchup.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST).

I think Seattle is the deeper and more complete team and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

The Seahawks won the NFC West title last year and then lost to ATL in the divisional round. Green Bay won the NFC North and then was taken down by the Falcons in the Conference round.

Seattle just sent WR Jermaine Kearse and a 2018 second-round draft pick to New York in exchange for Pro Bowl lineman Sheldon Richardson. The Hawks made another move on the same day to acquire CB Justin Coleman from the Patriots for a seventh-round pick. 

The Seattle defense was already solid, but now it looks downright scary (last season it was eighth against the pass and seventh against the run.)

These teams have met five times since 2012 and the Hawks are 3-2. Green Bay though has won the last two, including a blowout 38-10 victory in Week 14. 

Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers went for 246 yards and three TD’s in that one. With Rodgers under center, Green bay will always be a contendor, but a lack of playmakers on both sides of the ball have many wondering if the dynamic pivot will be able to do it all by himself.

Seattle had a great pre-season and QB Russell Wilson is finally playing at 100% health. 

As stated off the top, I won’t be shocked by an outright upset, but I’m going to grab the points in the end.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1L00 ET.

John Harbaugh took over as the Ravens' head coach in 2008 (Ravens were 5-11 in 2007), the same year Baltimore drafted a little-known QB out of Delaware, Joe Flacco. That duo would help lead the Ravens to five consecutive playoff seasons (54-26 regular season record), winning a Super Bowl title in 2012. However, since that 2012 season, the Ravens have had just one winning season over the last four years (10-6 in 2014) and these last two years have seen the Ravens go 5-11 and 8-8. Flacco missed the entire preseason and returned to practice for the first time since the end of June mini-camp this past Saturday. Somewhat surprisingly, the Ravens were a perfect 4-0 in "practice" games, with victories over the Redskins, Dolphins, Bills and Saints. 

The Bengals stumbled to a 6-9-1 season in 2016, ending a five-year playoff run (six of the previous seven). This preseason, the Bengals opened with a win over the Bucs but then fell to Chiefs, Redskins and Colts to finish 1-3. QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green are "big-time" players plus RB Gio Bernard will be joined by speedy rookie RB Joe Mixon (Okla). Cincinnati added a few notable names in the off-season including LB Kevin Minter and OT Andre Smith but the OL is in a state of transition, while the defense will be missing starting LB Vontaze Burfict (three games) and CB Adam Jones (one game), both on NFL suspensions. 

Baltimore has consistently said that it expects Flacco to be fine for Week 1. However, is a full week to prepare for the regular-season opener in Cincinnati enough? Let me note here that Flacco's thrown just five TD passes and 12 interceptions in eight career games at Paul Brown Stadium. That makes sense when one notes that the Bengals have won and covered the last five years at home against the Ravens. Baltimore has gone 2-6 SU on the road each of the last two seasons, including opening 2-0 on the road in 2016 (wins over 1-15 Cleveland and 3-13 Jacksonville), before losing their final six on the road (1-5 ATS).

Was 2016 just a "down year," for Cincy or the beginning of a slide? Let's not ignore that this team has been quite consistent (few roster or coaching changes) and had put together four consecutive seasons of 10-plus wins prior to 2016 and entered last year having gone 19-4-1 SU at home from 2013-15, before going 4-3-1 last year. Cincinnati does own an 18-6-2 ATS record in their last 26 September games and I'm "all over" the Bengals at this 'workable' pointspread (8* on Cincinnati).

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets (1:00 EST).

If you called this one “The Toilet Bowl,” not many would argue.

New York was just 5-11 last year. Buffalo is also looking to improve and opens the season with a new head-coach and direction with Sean McDermott. 

If recent history is any precedence though, then the Jets have to be loving their chances today as they’d go on to take both meetings with the Bills last year.

Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle a little on the money line?” Of course not. 

But I do definitely expect New York to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

Josh McCown is under center for the Jets this year and the good news for New York fans is that it would be very hard for him to be any worse than Ryan Fitzpatrick was last season. 

McCown will be leaning heavily on RB Bilal Powell, who had 722 yards last year. New York had a decent defense last season, allowing 424.4 YPG, ranked 11th overall.

The Bills allowed just 16.8 PPG in the preseason, but last year they were rakned 16th in the league with 23.6 PPG conceded. Buffalo’s strength though is once again expected to be on the defensive side of the ball.

The Bills averaged just 15.5 PPG in the preseason. Beyond QB Tyrod Taylor and dynamic playmaker LeSean McCoy, Buffalo is thin on the offensive side of the ball. 

Additionally I’ll point out that it’s interesting to note that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four in this series.

I think the Jets above average defense will be able to contain Taylor and allow McCown a chance to keep this one within striking distance. Grab the points, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland Raiders (1:00 EST).

Both teams struggled in the preseason, with the Raiders going 0-4 and the Titans going 1-3. Of course, the preseason means nothing. Most of the time.

Both clubs finished second in their respective divisions last season.

The Raiders have won 29 of the last 49 in the series, including last year’s 17-10 victory in Nashville in Week 3. 

QB Derek Carr is back to 100% health after breaking his leg in Week 16 against the Colts last season. Carr will now be handing off to Marshawn Lynch, who the Raiders were able to talk out of retirement. 

You’ll also want to keep your eyes on Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, who are considered one of the best WR tandems in the league. 

The Titans’ Marcus Mariota also suffered a hurrendous leg injury to end the season. Mariota is also 100% ready to go in 2017. 

As good as Mariota is, the offense’s biggest strength is probably the run game, with three capable backs. 

I simply feel that Oakland is the deeper team through in all three phases. Also note that the Raiders are 9-3 ATS their last 12 on the road, while the Titans are just 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 in front of the home town crowd.

Grab the points, play on the Raiders.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST).

Pittsburgh won the AFC North with an 11-5 record last year and then fell 36-17 to the Pats in the Championship round. 

Cleveland was terrible last season, lucky to earn a 1-15 record. 

The Steelers won both games last year, 27-24 in the first one and 24-9 in the second. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much bigger blowout in the 2017/18 season opener.

I have a hard time seeing Cleveland slowing down Pittsburgh’s high-powered offense today. Big Ben is back under center, last year he finished with 3,819 passing yards and a big 29:13 TD:INT ratio. 

RB Le’Veon Bell is back after posting 1,268 rushing yards with seven TD’s in 12 games. Roethlisberger throws to perhaps the most dangerous tandem in the league in Antonio Brown and Martavias Bryant.

Pittsburgh was decent (not great) defenisvely last year, but clearly the unit catches a break in facing the Browns shaky offensive unit. 

Cleveland will be starting rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who had a decent preseason by going 25 of 49 for 351 yards, one TD and one INT. Kizer will be leaning heavily on RB Isaiah Crowell, who had 952 rushing yards. 

The Browns struggled defensively and while they should take a step forward this year, the unit still has more questions than answers currently. 

I’ll point out as well that the Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last six on the road, while the Browns are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine at home.

Divisional contests are always the most important. All signs point to Pittsburgh sending an early message. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST).

After winning the AFC West last year, the Chiefs knew that the perennial East-champion Patriots would be on the schedule in 2017. That KC heads to Foxboro in the opener makes a difficult game even more of a test. But the Chiefs – who may be the best team that no one talks about -- could be looking at at least a cover in this one. Kansas City may be one of the few teams in the league not intimidate by Belichick & Brady – the Chiefs gave the Patriots a decent game in the playoffs a few years ago before running out of gas, and the year before that laid a 41-14 regular-season beating on New England. This time around things could hinge on how KC’s solid secondary does against Brady and a slew of new and talented players that NE has brought on board. Keeping new burner WR Brandin Cooks is a must for keeping the Chiefs in this one until the fourth quarter, which will go a long way toward covering the number. One other note – the Chiefs are 43-21 over the last four seasons and have won three straight openers.

Good luck...Larry

My 10 SUPER BOWL 51 TOP SIDE PLAY is on the Atlanta Falcons (6:30 EST).

The Super Bowl-champion Atlanta Falcons.

Maybe not, but even if they don’t beat the Patriots in the 51st running of America’s favorite game, they will cover and reward bettors who risk some of their hard-earned cash.

It won’t be easy. Taking down the Patriots in a big game never is. But the Falcons are a freight train right  now, they have the league’s MVP, they have one of the top three receivers in the world, they have a defense that is getting stops and turnovers, and it is all coming together at the right time.

Atlanta will win it by taking a page out of the New York Giants’ SB playbook and pressuring Tom Brady, especially up the middle. Houston also had (a little) success coming straight at Brady, who is at his weakest when flushed from the pocket. And the Falcons’ offense has progressed far enough to understand and adjust to New England’s constantly changing defensive schemes.

Oddsmakers opened with the Falcons getting three from the 4-time Super Bowl champs, who have had to lay points in their last 8 games after showing that they are indeed for real. Grab the 3, put it in your back pocket. 

The Falcons are ready to take flight. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 33-Club Play is on the New England Patriots (6:40 EST).

The 13-5 Pittsburgh Steelers are at New England to take on the 15-2 Patriots and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Last week the Steelers barely held on for an 18-16 road win in Kansas City. The Patriots were in neutral in their victory over the Texans last week before hitting the gas in the second half to pull away for the 34-16 win. 

Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t playing, but the Patriots won 27-16 at Heinz Field in Week seven. 

The Steelers finished the regular season by posting 24.9 PPG, ranked 11th overall. The defense was ranked tenth, conceding an average of 20.4 PPG. 

The Patriots though were step above in both departments, finishing third in the league in scoring with an average of 27.6 PPG, while finishing No. 1 on the defensive end in conceding 15.6 PPG. Last week the unit held the Texans to just 285 yards and had three INT’s. 

I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 against New England, while the Pats are 6-0 ATS in their last six following a SU win and 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records.

The Pats strength on defense was stopping the run, which clearly doesn’t bode well for Steelers’ RB Le’Veon Bell. Note that Pittsburgh allowed an average of just 88.6 yards per game on the ground. So far Roethlisberger has two TD’s and three INT’s in the playoffs.

It’s a lot to ask a team to win on the road in the postseason, so to say it’s difficult to win SU twice away from friendly confines as the underdog would be a bit of an understatement I think. 

The Steelers’ secondary is average at best, so New England QB Tom Brady should be able to move the ball in this one. Also note that the Pats were able to rush for 140 yards in their Week 7 win over the Steelers.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Championship Sunday Las Vegas Insider is on the GB Packers at 3:05 ET.

Both Championship Sunday games have terrific QB matchups, with this Green Bay/Atlanta game featuring the NFL's hottest QB in Aaron Rodgers up against Matt Ryan, who many believe will win this year's MVP award (however, Rodgers could have something to say about that!). Rodgers owns a Super Bowl ring and the Packers are participating in the playoffs for the EIGHTH consecutive season. As for the Falcons, they did capture the NFC's No. 2 seed with an 11-5 record in 2016, but this is the team's first postseason appearance since 2012. 

Rodgers proved to be a man of his word when he told reporters that the Green Bay Packers were capable of running the table to secure a playoff bid. Six consecutive wins later and the Packers won the NFC North at 10-6. They've then beaten the Giants 38-13 at Lambeau in the wild card round before last Sunday's thrilling 34-31 last-second win in Dallas over the Cowboys, who had earned the NFC's No. 1 seed at 13-3. Rodgers finished the regular season with an NFL-high 40 TD passes and just seven INTs (QB rating of 104.2), which all followed him struggling down the stretch last season and in the early going of 2016. Despite losing Jody Nelson (led the NFL with 14 TDs among his 97 receptions) to a rib injury against teh Giants, Rodgers threw for 362 yards and four TDs without an INT in 40 attempts. Without Nelson against Dallas, Rodgers threw for 356 yards with two TDs, although he did throw his first INT since a Nov 13th game at Tennessee. Rodgers has 21 TDs and just one INT in the team's 8-0 run plus a Green Bay defense which allowed 24.2 PPG on the season (to rank 21st), has held opponents to 19.5 PPG during its winning run.

As good as Rodgers has been, Matt Ryan has delivered a "career season" for the Falcons. The Falcons scored 71 more points than any other team in the NFL during the regular season, leading all teams by averaging 33.8 PPG. He just missed throwing for 5,000 yards (4,944), while passing for 38 TDs and just seven INTs. His 117.1 QB rating not only led the NFL, but was the fifth-best in NFL history. In fact, he topped 100 in passer rating in 12 of 16 regular-season games, then did it again against Seattle (125.7) in the divisional round when threw for 338 yards with three TDs and zero INTs against Seattle, which owned the best defense of any NFC playoff team. In Julio Jones (83 catches for 1,409 yards), Ryan has one of the three-best WRs in the NFL plus the RB duo of Freeman and Coleman, have turned into a real force. Each can run, catch and gain yards after the catch. Freeman gained 1,541 yards from scrimmage (13 TDs) and Coleman 941 yards with 11 TDs during the regular season. However, defense has been an issue for the Falcons all season, allowing 25.4 PPG (27th) on 371.2 YPG (25th).

Then again, this is not grandfather's NFL or your father's, for that matter. Atlanta ranked 27th in the NFL in points allowed and Green Bay 21st but ONE of them is headed to Super Bowl 51. The knock on Ryan was his dismal 1-4 playoff record coming into this postseason and while he was great vs Seattle, did that real "get the monkey off his back?" The Falcons defense didn't get much of a test against Seattle, a team which averaged only 14.8 PPG on the road during the regular season and then 'laid an egg' in Atlanta. Seattle scored on its opening drive, then didn't get into the end zone again until 3:21 left in the game, when the team was down 36-13! Is the Atlanta defense really ready for Rodgers?

When these teams met in Atlanta back in Week 8, the Packers took the lead with just under four minutes to go but Ryan drove the Falcons 75 yards (in 11 plays) for the tying TD, with the extra-point being the game-winner (33-32). Can't see giving Rodgers and Green Bay any points in this one. I made "The Pack" a top-rated 10* last weekend and will do so again, here.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Div Round Las Vegas Insider is on the GB Packers at 4:40 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Wednesday evening.

My 10* AFC SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the New England Patriots (8:15 EST).

The 9-7 Houston Texans are in New England to take on the 14-2 Patriots and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the favorites.

Houston managed to get by Oakland 27-14 last week, while the Pats come in rested after enjoying a first round bye. In Week 2 the Patriots annihilated the Texans 27-0. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting an even bigger lop-sided beatdown tonight.

In that game Jacoby Brissett was at QB for New England, while Brock Osweiler had 196 yards, zero TD’s and one INT for Houston.

Looking good against a Raiders team that was down to its third string rookie QB is one thing, it’s obviously quite another in facing Tom Brady and company at Foxborough in January. Note that the Texans average just 17.4 PPG, ranked 29th overall. 

Houston’s defense was its strong point, finishing by allowing 20.5 PPG, ranked 11th.

That defense though is about to be tested by New England’s third ranked offense which posted 27.6 PPG. In the win over Houston in Week 3, LeGarrette Blount had 105 yards and two TD’s.

But as good as the offense is for New England, the Pats’ defense was even better, conceding just 15.6 PPG, ranked first overall. And note, that defense was especially strong against the run, which clearly doesn’t bode well for the Texans’ Lamar Miller.

I’ll point out that Houston is just 2-5 ATS on the road this year, while New England is 4-2 ATS in its last six when playing with two weeks off. 

I simply can’t see Osweiler mustering any sort of offensive attack today as he and the Texans are going to be out of their element in chilly Foxborough. The bottom line is, I’m expecting a huge performance from Brady as he looks to send a message to the rest of the league.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:35 EST).

The 10-5-1 Seattle Seahawks are in Atlanta to take on the 11-5 Falcons in the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

I played on Seattle last week in its destruction of the Lions and suffice it to say, I expect the playoff tested Seahawks to carry that momentum over here and give the home side everything it can handle. 

Seattle’s defense looked great in the 26-6 win over Detroit. It’s going to have to be sharp once again in facing Matt Ryan and the high-flying Falcons. 

Remember though, when these two played in Week 6, it was the Hawks that scored the 28-26 outright victory. Seattle had three rushing TD’s in the win, while Ryan threw for three for ATL. 

In the win over Detroit the Seahawks’ defense gave up just two field goals. QB Russell Wilson was 23 of 30 for 224 yards and two TD’s. RB Thomas Rawls had 161 yards on 27 carries and I’m expecting him to have a big day against the Falcons’ suspect line. 

Note that Seattle ranks 21st in the NFL on the offensive end in averaging 22.1 PPG. The Seahawks though concede just 18.2, ranked third overall. 

That defense will once again be put to the test as the Falcons average 33.8 PPG, ranked first in the league. As mentioned above though, the defense has been a disaster all season, ranked 28th against the pass and 27th overall in conceding 25.4 PPG. 

I’ll point out that Seattle is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog, while ATL is just 8-18 ATS in its last 26 when playing the role of favroite (including just 1-3 ATS in its last four). 

I think that Wilson and company have a big opportunity to put some points on the board and hang with Ryan down the stretch. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the New York Giants (4:40 EST).

The 11-5 New York GIants are in Green Bay to take on the 10-6 Packers and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points as I expect the visitors to take this one down to the wire. 

New York won three of its last four to finish with an 11-5 record, while Green Bay won its final six games to take the NFC North. The Packers beat the Giants 23-16 at home in Week five. Aaron Rodgers had 259 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s, while Eli Manning had 199 passhing yards, one TD and no INT’s. 

New York gets the job done on the defensive end and I think its underrated unit will prove to be the difference today. Last year the Giants had the 30th ranked defense, but this season the unit allows 17.8 PPG, ranked second overall.

Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers finished the season with a 40:7 TD to INT ratio. The run game struggled with injuries all year, so they’ll clearly be putting all their eggs in one basket this weekend, committed to the passing game. Green Bay finished ranked 31st against the pass this season and would go on to allow 24.2 PPG, ranked 21st overall. 

I’ll point out that New York is 5-1 ATS in its last six off a win against a division rival, while Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories.

Manning will have a big day against this weak Packers’ secondary and while he’s had a great run to this point, I have a hard time seeing Rodgers having such a productive day against the Giants’ top ranked unit. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:05 EST).

The 10-6 Miami Dolphins are in Pittsburgh to take on the 11-5 Steelers and for a number of different reasonss, I think this one favors the home side. Miami would win three of its last four to secure a spot, while Pittsburgh won its final seven games to take the AFC North. In Week six, Miami beat Pittsburgh 30-15. Suffice it to say, it’s now payback time for the Steelers!

Miami lost 35-14 to the Pats last week. Backup QB Matt Moore was decent, going 24 of 34 for 205 yards, one TD and two INT’s. RB Jay Ajayi will clearly be leaned upon heavily here, he’d finish with 1,272 rushing yards and eight TD’s. 

The Fish would finish the regular season averaging 22.7 PPG, ranked 17th overall. The defense was weak, conceding 23.8 PPG, ranked 18th and just got burned by three passing TD’s to the Pats last week.

Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger finished with 3,819 yards and a 29:13 TD to INT ratio. Pittsburgh would finish the year averaging 24.9 PPG, good for 11th overall. The defense was also decent, conceding 20.4, ranked tenth in the league.

I’ll point out that Miami is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 30 points or more in its previous game and just 6-21 ATS in its last 27 after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous outing, while Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home playoff contests.

Pittsburgh has the edge on both sides of the ball in this one. Moore has been decent, but the pressure gets dialed up considerably this week. I think the Dolphins finally have a letdown here and the home side pulls away for the comfortable ATS cover as the game comes down the stretch. Play on the Steelers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wildcard GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:15 EST).

The 9-7 Detroit Lions are in Seattle to take on the 10-5-1 Seahawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Detroit backed its way into the postseason, losing its final three of the year to finish in second place in the NFC North. Seattle was 3-3 over its final three games.

When these teams met in Week 4 last year, Seattle came out on top 13-10. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much bigger rout today. 

Detroit could have won the division and secured a first round bye with a win over the Packers in Week 17, but QB Matt Stafford struggled again. Stafford had an overall good year, finishing with 4,327 passing yards and a 24:10 TD to INT ratio, but the run game struggled. In all the Lions would finish ranked 20th in the NFL with an average of 21.6 PPG. Defensively the team is average as well, conceding 22.4 PPG, ranked 13th.

Seattle is back in the playoffs for a fifth straigh tseason. QB Russell Wilson had 4,219 yards and a 20:11 TD to INT ratio. WR Doug Baldwin made 94 catches for 1,128 receiving yards. In the end the Hawks averaged 22.1 PPG, ranked 18th overall, while conceding just 18.2, ranked third.

I’ll point out that Detroit is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year and just 2-4 ATS in its last six off a loss against a division rival, while Seattle is 5-3 ATS its last eight at home and 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records. 

It’s going to be cold in Seattle on Saturday night and there’s no question that the conditions favor the home side. I think the Hawks’ defense will be the difference maker today and expect Stafford and company to once again have a hard time finding any consistency. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Green Bay Packers (8:30 EST).

The 9-6 Green Bay Packers are in Detroit to take on the 9-6 Lions and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

This game will determine the winner of the NFC North. 

Green Bay enters on a five-game win streak, while Detroit comes in on the other end of the spectrum having dropped two in a row.

The Packers are riding the great play of QB Aaron Rodgers, who has thrown for 4,128 yards and 36 TD’s this year. Last week he had 347 yards and four TD’s, as well as scrambling for a fifth in the win over the Vikes.

Last week Matt Stafford was just 26 of 46 for 260 yards and an INT in his team’s 42-21 setback to the Cowboys. I think Stafford is regressing and believe he’ll be in for a long day against this amped up Packers’ secondary.

And note that Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in Detroit, while the Lions are interestingly just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 against the NFC North.

Stafford’s play has been suffering because of a stagnant run game and I don’t see anything changing this week. Packers’ QB Rodgers on the other hand is on absolute fire right now. Lay the points with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Redskins (4:25 EST0.

The 10-5 New York Giants are in Washington to take on the 8-6-1 Redskins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Giants are coming off a 24-19 road loss to Philadelphia, but would still go on to clinch their first playoff berth in five years after Tampa Bay fell to New Orleans. A win or loss this week has absolutely no effect whatsoever for the Giants as far as positioning, so the team is expected to rest most of the starters, including QB Eli Manning. Note even with Manning in the lineup, the Giants averaged just 19.4 PPG this year.

Washington though comes in off a 41-21 road win over Chicago to keep its playoff hopes alive. QB Kirk Cousins had 270 yards, one TD and zero INT’s. A few things need to happen for Washington to make the postseason, but the only thing the Redskins can control is laying everything on the line this weekend to try and secure the victory. Note that the Skins come into this one scoring an average of 25.7 points, ranked ninth overall.

This is a no-brainer for me, no need to overthink. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 EST).

The 13-2 Dallas Cowboys are in Philadelphia to take on the 6-9 Eagles and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Dallas didn’t have a lot to play for on Monday night after already clinching the division title and home field throughout the playoffs, but the Cowboys would come out and hammer the Lions 42-21. 

The Eagles won’t be going down without a fight and come in with momentum after beating the Giants 24-19 at home last week. 

Note that Philadelphia plays with revenge today after falling 29-23 in Dallas earlier in the year.

Dallas been fantastic and has a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl run this year, but it truly has nothing to play for this week. It’s been reported that Tony Romo could see a lot of time in this one.

It’s time for Carson Wentz to cement his spot as next years starter for Philadelphia and put on a show for the home town crowd with a big performance today. So far Wentz has 3,537 yards, 14 TD’s and 14 INT’s. 

Last week the Eagles looked great on the defensive side of the field, holding New York to four field goals and intercepting Eli Manning three times.

I’ll also point out that Dallas is just 2-3 ATS this year against the division, while Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in front of the home town crowd.

I think this one sets up perfectly for the much more motivated home side. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 17 Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

After a 4-0 SU & ATS preseason, the Vikings opened the 2016 season 5-0 SU & ATS, However, after returning from a Week 6 bye, the Vikings' season has 'crashed and burned,' as they will now just play to end the year at .500 after going 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games. Chicago's season started poorly and since a Week 9 bye, the Bears are just 1-6 SU and limp into their season finale at 3-12. Only the 1-14 Browns and 2-13 Niners are worse.

The Bears are down to their third-string QB Matt Barkley, after injuries to Jay Cutler and backup Brian Hoyer. He's hardly ready for prime time, as he's been intercepted EIGHT times in he last two games. Execution has been an issue for Chicago all season, as the Bears have an NFL-low 10 takeaways and are a minus-16 in turnover-differential. "Minus-16 is a big reason we're sitting here at 3-12," head coach John Fox said. "It's not a good formula when you're minus-16." It's part of the reason that while the Chcago offense ranks 13th in total yards at 358.7 YPG, but the Bears are scoring only 17.9 PPG (28th). The Bears are hoping to avoid the franchise's worst record since the NFL expanded to 16 games in 1978 and the second-worst mark in team history after a 1-13 record back in 1969.

Minnesota has played itself out of postseason contention despite that 5-0 start and the Vikings are left searching for answers. "I really don't think the team lost confidence, I didn't lose confidence," Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer said. "Our penalties were up this year; our pre-snap penalties were up especially. Offensive penalties were up this year. There's a lot of things to evaluate and try and figure out why." The Vikings' once-stout defense has allowed 72 points the past two weeks but the Vikings still rank 2nd in yards allowed (314.2 YPG) and 8th in points allowed (19.8 per). Despite a non-existent running game which averages 72.1 YPG (32nd) on 3.1 YPC, Sam Bradford owns the highest completion percentage (71.3) in history and has received high marks across the board from Zimmer. “Maybe this is the best year he’s ever had,” Zimmer said. “If you put all those together and look at the things he’s had to deal with, I think he’s been amazing.” Bradford has a chance to eclipse the single-season completion percentage set by Drew Brees (71.2%) back in the 2011 season.

The Bears have been competitive at home but head into this Week 17 game 0-7 SU (2-5 ATS) on the road, getting outscored 26.7-to-15.3 PPG. Mike Zimmer is a fiery head coach and i expect him to have the primed for this revenge spot from a Week 8 loss on a MNF game in Chicago. Expect Bradford to be "on target" against a Chicago defense that has not generated a takeaway in FIVE of its last six games. The Vikings have covered 75 percent of their last 28 home games and have won their last four home games vs the Vikings. Make it five in row and with plenty of "room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Lions (8:30 EST).

The 9-5 Detroit Lions are in Dallas to take on the 12-2 Cowboys and for a couple of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

Detroit won five-straight before falling to the Giants on the road last week. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defeated the Bucs 26-20 on Sunday night Football last week and have clinched a first round bye in the playoffs already.

It’s a natural letdown spot, but also note that the team has already statetd that it will rest any starters which it deems in risk of any sort of injury and it’s even been rumored that backup QB Tony Romo could see some action in the second half.

Lions’ QB Matt Stafford struggled last week, but I’m expecting a bounce back here as Dallas ranks 28th in defending the pass this season. 

The combination of RB Ezekiel Elliot and QB Dak Prescott, along with a Top 10 defensive unit and arguably the best offensive line in the league makes the Cowboys one of the favorites at this point to win Super Bowl 51. But as mentioned off the top, Dallas has already sewn up its positioning, so a mental letdown in this spot isn’t too difficult to imagine happening.

I’ll also point out that Detroit is 5-3 ATS this season when playing the role of underdog and 4-2 ATS against teams with winning records, while Dallas is just 3-4 ATS against clubs with winning records and just 12-15 ATS in its last 27 when playing the role of favorite.

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points, play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST).

The 8-6 Denver Broncos are in Kansas City to take on the 10-4 Chiefs on Christmas Day and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Denver comes in off a disheartening 16-3 home loss to New England, while KC also enters off a brutal 19-17 setback to the Titans last week.

But if recent history is an evidence, then the Chiefs have to be liking their chances for a bounce back performance here, as they’d beat the Broncos in Denver 30-27 in OT in Week 12. 

The Broncos started the season strong, but have been consistently inconsistent over the last two months. Last week QB Trevor Siemian had 283 yards, no TD’s and one INT. RB Jordan Norwood would fumble the ball twice, part of three total turnovers in the game for the defending champs.

The defense continues to be Denver’s strong point, last week holding Tom Brady to just 188 passing yards and no TD’s. The unit concedes just 18.4 PPG overall.

But I think that defense has a letdown here against the dangerous Chiefs offense which is itching to take out its frustrations on someone after last week’s collapse. 

KC actually had a 17-7 halftime lead, but was unable to score in the second half against Tennesse and it eventually blew it. QB Alex Smith was just 15 of 28 for 163 yards, zero TD’s and one INT. 

I like Smith to bounce back here though, note that the Chiefs average 22.8 PPG, which ranks them 15th overall. 

But the biggest difference maker for me today is KC’s underappreciated defensive unit, one which concedes just 19.6 PPG, ranked eighth overall. 

And from a trend based stand point, this one absolutely sets up great for the home side, as note that Denver is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records and only 1-5 ATS in its last six divisional games, while KC is 5-0 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records.

Denver’s defense is amazing, but as good as it is, is as bad as the offense is, managing just one TD over the last two games combined. And now the Broncos face one of the best defenses in the league in a critical game on national TV on its own field (note that KC has given up just one passing TD over its last three outings). 

All five of the Chiefs home victories this year have come by at least five points and I expect that and the rest of the trends listed above, to continue on Christmas Day.

Play on Kansas City as my 2016/17 NFL Game Of The Year!

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (4:25 EST).

The 8-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in New Orleans to take on the 6-8 Saints and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Tampa Bay lost 26-20 to Dallas last Sunday, while the Saints come off a hard-fought 48-41 road win at Arizona last week. 

Note that the Saints play with revenge today after falling 16-11 to the Bucs two weeks ago.

Tampa’s playoff hopes took a big hit last week, it’s now tied with Green Bay on the outside of the Wildcard picture. Note the Bucs are conceding an average of 24 PPG, ranked 18th overall, while posting 22.4 per game, placing them 18th in the league.

Last week Saints’ QB Drew Brees had 389 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. Suffice it to say, I expect the veteran to carry that momentum over here. 

And I’ll point out that Tampa is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten “dome” games, while New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 in revenging a loss against an opponent.

I think the stage is now set for a big Tampa letdown and I look for Brees and company to take full advantage. Lay the points with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST).

The 5-9 San Diego Chargers are in Cleveland to take on the 0-14 Browns and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Cleveland most recenlty fell 33-13 in Buffalo last week. 

San Diego has been eliminated from playoff contention and has lost three in a row, most recently at the hands of the Raiders.

So which of these two teams has more to play for today?

Clearly the answer is the winless Browns, who will still get the first draft pick if they manage to get off the schneid with an outright victory.

Last week San Diego QB Philip Rivers passed for only 206 yards, while the ground game posted a mere 73. Note that Rivers and company haven’t score more than 21 points in any of their last four games.

Robert Griffin III though is playing for his career right now. Last week he was 17 of 28 for 196 yards, no TD’s and no INT’s. 

San Diego is without starting RB Melvin Gordon and top WR Keenan Allen and has little to play for.

This is the Browns best opportunity for a victory this season and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can in this fantastic situational opportunity. 

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFL Week 16 Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

The Dolphins won 34-13 in frigid New Jersey last Saturday night, improving to 9-5. They currently own the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff picture, the second of two wild cards. Miami stays on the road this Sunday and travels to upstate New York to take on the Buffalo Bills, who at 7-7, have about a one percent chance of making the playoffs. It will again be cold (expected to be in the 30s) but not nearly as bad as last Saturday night.

The Dolphins’ six-game winning streak was snapped 38-6 by the Ravens in Week 13 but Miami rebounded with a 26-23 win over the Cardinals in Week 14. However, the Dolphins lost starting QB Ryan Tannehill to a left knee injury in that contest. The Dolphins selected Tannehill in the first round of the 2012 draft and he had started the first 77 games of his career but it was Matt Moore who took place last Saturday against the Jets. Moore went 3-of-5 for 47 yards and directed the game-winning drive  (ended in a FG) against the Cards but he entered the game against the Jets having attempted just 35 passes since the start of the 2012 season. Surprisingly, in tough conditions, he completed 12 of 18 for 236 yards with four TD passes and one INT (126.2 QB rating!).

The Bills jumped at the opportunity to hire Rex Ryan after the 2014 season, when he was fired by the Jets. I was never quite sure why, as he had gone 26-38 the previous four years with New York, without a winning season. As he is prone to do, Rex opened his “big fat mouth” right away, promising to return the Bills to the playoffs (Buffalo’s last postseason appearance came back in 1999). Well, after an 8-8 season last year, the Bills are 7-7 in 2016 and as noted earlier, have about a one-percent chance of making this year’s postseason field. Ryan is supposed to be a “defensive guy,” yet his Bills are a middle-of-the-pack 16th in yards allowed (349.2 YPG) and 14th in points allowed (22.4 PPG). I’m not quite sure what to make of QB Trod Taylor, as he hasn’t made many mistakes (14-6 ratio) and is an excellent runner (520 yards on 6.3 YPC with six TDs) but the Bills rank 31st (of 32 teams) in passing at 182.6 YPG. They are the NFL’s top rushing team, (163.6 YPG on 5.5 YPC), led by RB McCoy, who has 1,129 yards on 5.5 YPC with 12 TDs.

It seems highly unlikely that Moore will repeat last week’s heroics plus RB Ajayi, who had back-to-back 200-year rushing games in Weeks 6 & 7 (as well as an 111-yard effort in his next game), has not reached 80 yards rushing in any of his last six outings. He’s averaged only 51.3 YPG (on 3.0 YPC) over his last four. Meanwhile, the Bills (the league's No. 1 rushing team) will be up against a Miami rush D which ranks 30th against the run, allowing 132.5 YPG on 4.8 YPC. The Dolphins have lost at Buffalo by 16, 19 and 19 points the past three years, while compiling a woeful total of just 27 points (9.0 per!). Last week’s ATS win at the Jets marked just Miami’s second cover in its last 14 December games. The Bills earn a top rating of 10*s in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:25 EST).

The 10-4 New York Giants are in Philadelphia to take on the 5-9 Eagles and despite having been eliminated from contention already, I think this one favors the home side.

New York is looking to grab the top wildcard spot in the NFC, but plays its final two games of the year on the road, where it’s just 3-3 so far.

The Giants most recently beat the Lions 17-6 at home on Sunday, but the Eagles also play with revenge today after dropping the first meeting of the year 28-23. 

New York’s weak point is its offense. Last week Eli Manning was 20 of 28 for 201 yards, two TD’s and no picks. But on the season the offense averages just 320.6 YPG, including only 81.2 on the ground. The Giants get the job done on the defensive end, conceding just 17.9 PPG. 

Philadelphia had a chance to keep its playoff hopes alive last week, but QB Carson Wentz’s pass to Jordan Matthews for a two point conversion was tipped at the line. I think the Eagles and Wentz come out fired up this week. RB Ryan Mathews had 128 yards on 20 carries and a TD. 

The Eagles rank ninth overall in rushing yards with 112.9 per game, but are just 24th in passing YPC at 227.5. Defensively they’re ranked in the middle of the pack, conceding 344.2 YPG, 12th overall.

I’ll point out that New York is just 2-3 ATS on the road this season and only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Philadelphia is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU losses and 4-2 ATS this year when playing in front of the home town crowd.

The Eagles won’t be rolling over today and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Redskins (8:30 EST).

The 5-8 Carolina Panthers are in the nation’s capital to take on the 7-5-1 Redskins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The Panthers have been relegated to the spoiler role, while Washington is still fighting for a Wild Card spot. Washington is primed for a big day in front of the home town crowd in my opinion after dropping two of its last three contests by single-digit margins on the road. 

Carolina will most likely be without star LB Luke Kuechly once again. Note that the Panthers have only won once on the road this year.

In last week’s home win over San Diego, Cam Newton posted an unspectacular 160 yards passing, one TD and a pick. Carolina looked pretty good defensively, but the secondary has been “hit-or-miss” all season. 

And that secondary will be tested early and often by Washington QB Kirk Cousins, who has over 4,000 yards passing this year. 

I’ll point out that Carolina is just 1-8-1 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Washington is 8-2 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records. 

It’s do or die for the Redskins and I think Cousins will be able to easily exploit the Panthers’ third worst pass defense in the NFL. I look for the visitors go through the motions today and for the motivated home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Dallas Cowboys (8:30 EST).

The 8-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in Dallas to take on the 11-2 Cowboys and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The Bucs are poised for a letdown here after their big divisional win at home over the Saints last Sunday (16-11), while the Cowboys are primed for a bounce back after falling 10-7 on the road to the Giants on Sunday night. 

Last week’s win was Tampa’s fifth in a row. QB Jameis Winston had an unspectacular 184 yards, zero TD’s and zero INT’s. RB Doug Martin had 66 yards off 23 carries and one TD. WR Mike Evans had four catches for 42 yards. Tampa now faces two tough road games to end the year, this week in Dallas and then next Sunday in New Orleans.

It’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead to that divisional contest.

Granted the Bucs looked pretty good defensively, holding Drew Brees to 257 passing yards while also grabbing three INT’s, but those types of performances have been few and far between for Tampa this season though and now the unit will have its hands full with a determined Dak Prescott and Cowboys teams which faltered for the first time last weekend.

Prescott was just 17 of 37 for 165 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Dez Bryant had just one catch for ten yards. RB Ezekiel Elliot was the lone bright spot, finishing with 107 yards off 24 carries. The Bucs defense will be tested by the sixth ranked offensive unit which averages 26.2 PPG. 

The Cowboys continued their strong defensive play last weekend, holding Eli Manning to 193 passing yards and allowed a total of just 93 rushing yards as well. Note that Dallas concedes just 18.3 PPG, ranked fifth overall.

I’ll point out that the Bucs are just 2-3 ATS against teams with winning records this year and only 1-4 ATS off a win against a division rival, while Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last six at home and 3-1 ATS off a divisional contest.

I like Prescott and company to bounce back at home and as mentioned off the top, in my professional opinion the table is set for a letdown for the visitors. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Chargers (4:25 EST).

The 10-3 Oakland Raiders are in San Diego to take on the 5-8 Chargers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The Raiders won six in a row before stumbling at Kansas City last Thursday and I think are poised for a letdown here as well.

Conversely, the underachieving Chargers will be hungry after consecutive losses to Tampa Bay and Carolina.

Last week Raiders’ QB Derek Carr was just 17 of 41 for 117 yards. 

The Chargers took a hit when RB Melvin Gordon went down last week, but dodged a bullet on the defensive side of the ball as rookie standout Joey Bosa does not have a concussion as initially feared. Philip Rivers and the Bolts have lost plenty of close games this year and I think will remain competitive until the end of the season.

Also note that Oakland is just 1-3 ATS this year against the division and 1-2 ATS against teams with losing records, while San Diego is 3-0 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, 2-0 ATS after two or more consecutive losses and 4-2 ATS against teams with winning records.

This one sets up as a trap and while I would not be shocked by an upset, I’ll recommend grabbing the points. Play on the Chargers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 15 Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:05 ET.

The Cardinals went 13-3 last season and made the NFC championship game, where Carson Palmer imploded with four INTs and two fumbles, as Arizona lost 49-15 to Carolina. However, along with the Panthers (and Seahawks), the Cardinals were among the favorites to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 51. However, the season started poorly with a 23-21 home loss in Week 1 to the Pats, who played without Brady (and Gronk). The Cards have never found their ‘sea legs’ in 2016. An offense which ranked No.1 in yards per game (408.3) and second in scoring (30.6 PPG) in 2015, has averaged a more modest 363.8 YPG (10th) in 2016 and finds itself a middling 15th in scoring (23.0 PPG).

The Saints entered the season having gone 7-9 in THREE of the previous four seasons, making the postseason only in 2013 at 11-5. However, at 5-8, the Saints are all but guaranteed to miss the playoffs for the FOURTH time in the last five seasons here in 2016. New Orleans looked OK at the season’s mid-point at 4-4 but they’ve lost FOUR of their last five, beating only the Rams in that span (note: Rams have lost EIGHT of their last nine, heading into Week 15!). The Saints exploded for 49 points in beating the Rams but have averaged just 16.8 PPG in those four losses. That includes averaging just 12.0 PPG in losing their last two games, as Drew Brees has thrown SIX interceptions and not a single TD pass in those games (he’s attempted 85 passes!) Those type of results are unimaginable for Brees and while his 2016 numbers remain impressive (70.6% / 4,170 yards / 30-14 ratio / 100.7 QB rating), it’s clear that the Saints are a team in decline. The running game averages just 104.4 YPG (18th) and the defense remains among the worst in the NFL, checking 30th in points allowed at 27.0 per.

The Cards defense has fought hard all season and will come into this game ranked No. 1 in allowing just 298.5 YPG. Let me also note that Arizona’s pass D is up to the task of continuing Drew Brees’ current woes, as the Cards rank 2nd with 201.8 YPG allowed through the air. The Cardinals have allowed only just 13 TD passes through 13 games and not a single 300-yard passing game. I saw where someone wrote that Carson Palmer looked “washed-up” last week and that is probably a fair critique. Coming off a career season last year (4,671 yards / 35-11 ratio / 104.6 QB rating), Palmer has 20 TDs and 13 INTs with a QB rating of just 83.9.

However, a closer look reveals he’s got a 9-10 ratio (70.5 QB rating) in road games, while at home, he’s go 11 TDs and just three INTs with a 93.9 rating. RB David Johnson plays great home and away and enters with 1,085 rushing yards (11 TDs) plus 69 catches (10.8 YPC) and four more TDs. It’s been a deeply disappointing season for Arizona (Seattle will have likely clinched the NFC West by beating the Rams at home on Thursday) but this is Arizona’s final home game of 2016 and I expect the Saints to play the perfect foil. Arizona wins here by double digits.

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 EST). 

The 5-8 Philadelphia Eagles are at Baltimore to take on the Ravens on Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

The Eagles are just playing out their season after falling 27-22 to Washington on Sunday. Rookie QB Carson Wentz will get the call until the end of the year, last week he was a strong 32 of 46 for 314 yards, one TD and one pick. TE Zach Ertz had ten catches for 112 yards. So far Philadelphia has averaged 341.4 yards per game on offense and is conceding just 20.9 PPG, ranked 12th overall.

Baltimore was sloppy last weekend and I think it’s a sign of things to come. In all the Ravens would commit eight penalites for 47 yards and one turnover. They also made several major mistakes on special teams. QB Joe Flacco was 37 of 53 for 324 yards, two TD’s and one INT. RB Kenneth Dixon had just 39 yards on 11 carries. Flacco is an unremarkable 17 TD’s to 12 INT’s on the year. 

I’ll point out that Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games (including 2-1 ATS this year), 6-4 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive losses and 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival, while Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last six as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range and already 0-3 ATS in non-conference contests this year.

Baltimore is still in the playoff hunt, but Wentz and company won’t be going down without a fight. They’ll also be relishing the role of spoiler. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Jets (8:25 EST).

The 8-5 Miami Dolphins are in New York to take on the 4-9 Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Last week New York came from behind to beat San Francisco 23-17 in OT last week, while Miami beat the Cards 26-23 at home. 

Note that the Jets play with revenge today after the Fish beat them 27-23 in Week 9. 

Miami’s win last week came at a big price though, as starting QB Ryan Tannehill went down with a knee injury and didn’t return. He’s now been ruled out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Matt Moore took over in relief and he was 3 of 5 for 47 yards. Moore has only attempted 30 passes over the last three seasons. RB Jay Ajayi has struggled over the last month and had just 48 yards off 20 carries. 

So for the Dolphins average 21.6 PPG and concede 23.2.

Bryce Petty got the start at QB last week and he’d go 23 of 35 for 257 yards, no TD’s and one INT in the Jets’ come from behind win. RB Bilal Powell had 145 yards and two TD’s. New York ranks near the bottom of the league on both sides of the ball, but it looked a lot better in all phases last week, especially on the defensive end, holding Colin Kaepernick to just 120 passing yards.

I’ll point out that Miami is just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games played in the month of December and just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 versus the division, while New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine contests played in December and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 against the division.

I think the loss of Tannehill is significant. I also think that Petty and the Jets looked a lot better in the second half of their victory last week and expect them to carry that momentum over here. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:25 EST).

The 4-9 LA Rams are in Seattle to take on the 8-4-1 Seahawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. LA is in dissary after firing head coach Jeff Fisher, who was let go after the team lost its fourth straight and eighth in its last nine. 

Most recently the Rams were hammered 42-14 at home by Atlanta. 

Seattle is looking to bounce back after a 38-10 defeat at snowy Lambeau last weekend and it’ll also be out to atone for a 9-3 loss to LA back on September 18th. 

The Hawks have caught LA at the most opportune of times, as note that the Rams have been outscored 117-45 in their last three games. 

Rams’ rookie QB Jared Goff has now completed just 55.1 percent of his passs for 744 yards, four TD’s and five picks. RB Todd Gurley has taken a major step back in his second year, having just 740 rushing yards and five TD’s on 3.3 yards per carry.

Russell WIlson struggled last week in Green Bay, going 22 of 39 for 240 yards, one TD and a career high five INT’s. At 8-4-1 though, the Seahawks are looking pretty good in the NFC West and they’ll now look to return to form in front of the home town crowd.

Note that Seattle still ranks among the best in the league on the defensive end, conceding just 17.8 PPG

I’ll point out that LA is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Seattle is 3-0 ATS in its last three “Thursday Night” games and 2-1 ATS in its last three in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent.

I expect Wilson and the Hawks to bounce back in a big way and think that LA struggles with consistency on both sides of the ball and in the coaching transition. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New England Patriots (8:30 EST).

The 7-5 Baltimore Ravens are in New England to take on the 10-2 Patriots and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Baltimore has won two straight, most recenlty crushing Miami last weekend. QB Joe Flacco had four TD’s and 381 passying yards. Beating Ryan Tannehill and the Fish is one thing, imposing your will over Tom Brady and the No. 6 ranked offense in total yards gained is entirely another though. 

Last week Brady became the all-time winningest QB in the NFL in his team’s 26-10 win over the Rams last week. Malcolm Mitchell and Julian Edelman combined for 16 catches and 183 yards. 

From a trend based stand point, this one sets up perfectly for the home side, as I’ll point out that Baltimore is 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road, while New England is interestingly 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in its previous contest.

Baltimore has done well at home and struggled on the road. I think that trend continues here. After already getting thumped at home by the Seahawks on national TV, I expect Bill Belichick to have his troops focused tonight. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Green Bay Packers (4:25 EST).

The 8-3-1 Seattle Seahawks are in Green Bay to take on the 6-6 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Green Bay has won two straight, most recently a hard-fought 21-13 victory over the Texans. Seattle has been playing well and would crush Carolina 40-7 last week. 

After only scoring five points in Week 12 against Tampa Bay, the Seahawks looked much better against Carolina, led by QB Russell Wilson who was 26 of 36 for 277 yards and a TD. Seattle though is poised for a letdown as it’s already wrapped up the NFC West, sitting 3.5 games ahead of Arizona. 

Note that the Hawks average just 22 PPG, ranked 20th overall. The strength of the team lays on the defensive side of the ball as the unit concedes just 16.2 PPG, ranked No. 1 in the league.

Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers had 209 yards and two TD’s in the snowy conditions last week. So far he has 29 TD’s to just seven INT’s. WR Jordy Nelson was a standout with 118 yards and a TD. 

Note that the Packers average 24.6 PPG, ranked tenth overall. The defense has been a weak point for Green Bay, the unit concedes 25.2 PPG. But that said, there’s no question that the Packers looked a lot better last week, holding Texans’ RB Lamar Miller to just 22 rushing yards (note that the defense has in fact allowed just 13 points in each of the last two games).

I’ll point out that Seattle is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four against Green Bay, while the Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

I think Seattle comes in a bit complacent here after the big home win, while Rodgers and company once again take advantage of familiar surroundings. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Packers.

Good luck…Larry