Cincinnati +11.5

Undoubtedly the Bearcats have tailed off as far as any team in the country from where they were two even three seasons ago. Central Florida on the other has shown what hard work can do for a program in a short period. Yet, this line is a bit too high for my liking considering the up tempo game expected here. Grab the Bearcats.

Typically you won't see a team favored by a high amount after a loss but that's the case here with the Packers. Indianapolis just has not answered the bell when facing teams that are not subpar record wise as was the case against the Texans, Broncos, and Chiefs. Throughout all of Green Bay's issues with injuries they've developed their offense. The Colts have also received stellar play from Andrew Luck even in losses which further devalues them with an expected rise in turnovers.

Both the Panthers wins this season have come against NFC West opponents in the 49ers and Cardinals. You'd expect that to continue against a Rams team that has shown no signs of turning the page lately. Still, the Panthers execution on both sides of the football devalues them in my opinion on the road. Look for the Rams to implement safe short throws similar to the Saints/Falcons which the Panthers have struggled to defend. Grab the Rams.

Down in Baton Rouge I'll side with the value of an Alabama team that's caught the right side of the number consistently this season. Breaking down those covers the inflated lines grew to the Crimson Tides favor in large part due to special teams or defensive touchdowns. LSU not only has the size to contend with Alabama but I also believe they themselves can come up with an outlier play to turn the tide on Bama ATS. Grab the eight points here.

I've stated all season that oddsmakers have had issues with UL Lafayette. They have the talent on both sides of the football to be sizable favorites at home, but haven't fit the role of earning that label. In fact, they've been six point favorites or less at home in nearly all of their match ups. Turnovers have plagued them all season and Idaho is a team that has done well in converting turnovers into points. Grab Idaho to be the latest to drive oddsmakers nuts on Lafayette.

Similar to the NFL in CFB you can catch some eye-popping value on re-evaluated teams. Stanford's season isn't anywhere near expectations, while Oregon State has shown the ability to play within the number against both Boise State and Utah. Folks also probably remember the Cardinal losing momentum in last year's second half against the Beavers. Yet, the Beavers offense has not looked the part to sustain four quarters against the Cardinal. Grab Stanford.

Perhaps no conference has witnessed more instability from the top to bottom than the ACC. Wake Forest and Virginia exemplify that with inconsistent play on a weekly basis. Here I see a bit of devaluing on the Demon Deacons off a poor loss to Army. A game they let swing the opposite way at home with poor execution in the latter stages of the third/fourth quarter. Sometimes playing a non-conference game that late in the season can throw a team off. Grab the Demon Deacons to refocus Saturday and catch a Virginia team that has come full circle from an oddsmakers perspective from their early season struggles.

 The irish are the Forrest Gump of college football as you never know what you're going to get on a weekly basis. Yet, holding off a talented Miami team created value this week against the feisty Midshipmen. Rather than believe the Irish are setup to get in their own way Saturday, I believe they'll put together their first complete game. It may have took until November but the Irish take a step forward Saturday.

Georgia State

Georgia State is a team far less potent than last year's team. Yet, they are showing a bit of growth on a week to week basis that points to trending upward. Arkansas State on the other hand may be a flash in the pan in my opinion. They stomped on Monroe last week, defeated South Alabama handily, and caught a backdoor cover/win against Georgia Southern. Those are eye popping and attractive with a small road number. Today though I'm leery of their defense/offense continuing on the upward path on the road. Grab Georgia State.

Philadelphia

The Cowboys are coming off a bye week in which momentum is on their side. Yet, they've played close games in their division this season against the Redskins and Giants. There's also reason to believe Dak Prescott may not be able to shield the pressure of the Romo whispers further. Philadelphia is a team that can win in various ways and has scored an unconventional touchdown in three consecutive weeks. Grab the Eagles here.

Detroit +2.5

Is there a reason why Houston is favored here? The home angle is one. Another may be Detroit's way of playing in close games. Can Matthew Stafford deliver the same theatrics on the road? I believe so as the offense has continued to rise on a week to week basis, especially with the implementation of Golden Tate. Grab the Lions here.

Clemson -4

Clemson hasn't won pretty this season in games that you'd expect that to do so. Yet, they are still undefeated and have a key win over a Louisville team that Florida State struggled against. This just isn't the same Florida State Seminoles team of years past. This is a spot where the point of the season bodes to Clemson's side ATS. They know what they're capable of when playing at peak levels and what can happen if they play sluggish football. Look for Clemson to learn from last year's rusty performance against FSU to make the necessary plays to get us the cover.

Memphis -6.5

Memphis Coach Mike Norvell has quietly got the Memphis program going in the right direction. Keep in mind this was a program that lost several key players from last years ranked team including quarterback Paxton Lynch. Tulsa plays a similar action packed brand of football but Mike Norvell's is relentless with more layers. Grab the Tigers Saturday.

ASU +9.5

Last week we covered with the Sun Devils who had to use their fourth string quarterback. That was not expected, this week it is assured. Therefore, oddsmakers have had no choice but to put out a sizable number. Yet, ASU's defense has performed much better than the stats show the last three weeks. This is a game where ASU can run the football at will and rely on a big play or two defensively. Grab the Devils.

Georgia State +5 

South Alabama did cover the number in their last game against Troy. Yet, glaring issues with why they've struggled this season and ATS lurked as they blew a home lead. Georgia State on the other hand has talent level above their record achievement. Grab Georgia State to cover here.

UConn +7

UConn's been a distrustful team compared to the upward trend they showcased last season. Their defense has not been able to support them on a weekly basis similar to last year's game plans. On the road against East Carolina figures to be too steep of a challenge yet again. Still, this is a game where UConn can get enough going offensively to stay within this number. Grab the Huskies.

Pittsburgh +7.5

This is an interesting point spread as it's the same as last year's opening game when New England was at home. Obviously with Landry Jones inserted many people would expect the type of rust he showed in starts last season. Yet, I believe Jones is more prepared this season and can spark an offense that was completely out of sync last week against Miami. The biggest outlier here is the fact that this may be week seven but it's week three for Tom Brady. The Steelers defense should be in mid-season mode to get after Tom.

Miami +3

There's no denying that the Bills have dominated the Dolphins in the regular season for a long time. In fact, Ryan Tannehill may perform his worst on an annual basis in terms of turnovers against the Bills. Still, I like the vibe coming from Miami as they have gutted it out by going with young players that have hunger to be on the field. That says a lot and a big win over the Steelers is where you would expect a momentum builder. Buffalo is at it's peak value currently ATS. Will go opposite here with the Fish.

Kansas City -6

The Saints come back win over the Chargers and win holding off the Panthers do not have oddsmakers fooled here. It doesn't with me either. New Orleans quick passes do work for two to three quarters. It's the fourth quarter where defenses can clamp down which forces three and outs. When you can't keep the clock moving on the road it spells disaster. Grab the Chiefs balance to cash as touchdown favorites.

ASU +7.5

You can't fault oddsmakers for having a hard time with the number against ASU. They have had instability nearly the entire season at quarterback, and statistically have one of the worst defenses in terms of yards per play. That figures to be a huge issue against Washington State's vaunted passing attack, correct? After all, last season at Washington State it was post half-time adjustments from Mike Leach that allowed the Cougars to upset the Devils.

Yet it's a different ball game when your the favorite after exceeding expectations with dominating wins over Oregon and Stanford. Look for ASU to play this game safe defensively which should allow for a close game in the fourth quarter. Grab ASU to sneak under the number.

UL Lafayette -5

Down in the Sun Belt the Rajun Cajuns travel to face Texas State. In past seasons Texas State has been a quality team to back ATS led by their senior quarterback Tyler Jones. Yet, in sports we often see collegiate athletes in major conferences sputter during their senior seasons. It's hardly seen in smaller conferences but that's been the case with Tyler Jones. Something is off and Texas State as a whole is not a quality enough team to offset his down trending play. Grab Lafayette to be the latest team to hand Texas State a loss ATS.

UCLA -7

Between the Bruins and Utes it's hard to argue which team is underachieving more. Yet, in a game between two teams playing below their capabilities I harken back to coaching and in-game management. Time and time again the Utes have defeated themselves with improper play calling and costly errors. The Bruins also are a bit under rated here as their offense should be able to put up points against the Utes defense. That's an outlier here as the Utes have not been a potent offense all season long.

NY Jets

            I'm one to wait until a full board is finalized before posting plays. Even though this line has crept down I still see value here as I envisioned this line at 6.5-7 originally.

            Sometimes teams just don't have favorable schedule on a week to week basis. Arizona is one of them as the Jets have been horrible against the number in losses to the Bengals, Steelers, Chiefs, and Seahawks.

            Furthermore, their loss last week against the Steelers forced oddsmakers hands on a steep spread near ten.

            Frankly, Arizona has not found the identity rhythm typical of a Bruce Arians offense. They went to the ground game to defeat the 49ers and defeated a 49ers offense that was in need of a change.

            The same can be said for the Jets offense but Fitzpatrick is one of those quarterbacks that keeps his job when you expect him to falter. Grab the value here on the Jets.

Houston

            Perhaps no team in football has had a no-budge in oddsmakers line judgement over the last 2-3 years than the Indianapolis Colts.

            Playing in close games with a below .500 record has helped that from happening.

            The boomerang factor here has also been the Texans slump in recent losses in horrid fashion to the Vikings and Patriots.

            Yet, I see this game as a tide changer for a Colts organization that has not made the necessary changes to avoid the season they're on track for.

            Grab the Texans as Brock Osweiler's game management ways are a perfect negator to the Colts style of play.

Oakland Raiders

            There are compound factors in this AFC West matchup to expect the Chiefs to get back on track after their bye week.

            They showcases last year the ability to get rolling and also had Oakland's number in the process.

            In both wins over the Raiders, quarterback Derek Carr was the main culprit in the loss.

            In their home loss last year up 20-14, Carr threw three fourth quarter interceptions that resulted in a fourteen point loss.

            Also factored in here is the fact the Raiders could easily be 1-4 versus their 4-1 record. All four of their wins have been by seven points or less and three by three points or less.

            The culture has changed in Oakland. Take the value of a pick 'em for the Raiders to get to 5-1. 

Carolina

            The notion here is that the Panthers are nothing of their form from a season ago. That's certainly correct.

            Also factored in is expected rust plus added pressure on Cam Newton to dig his Panthers out of a hole.

            That should be troublesome against the Saints who are coming off a bye week, especially after playing the Panthers tough for three quarters at home last year.

            Yet, like most teams have done this season the Panthers should be able to attack the Saints and better their offensive output.

            Look for the Panthers defense to make the extra play or two that's been lacking to get the Panthers back on the winning track.

Notre Dame

            The inkling here is that Stanford hit a patch in a rigorous Pac-12 schedule amidst an unsettled offense. Possibly. In fact, if not for a late rally against UCLA they could be in a three game losing streak.

            Notre Dame has free falled to a destination no one imagined. Yet, there is an angle here as the independent Irish have played Stanford yearly. That's an edge factor for the Irish upperclassmen and the better quarterback in this game with DeShone Kizer. Do not forget how comfortable Kizer looked in the second half of last year's loss against the Cardinal. Look for the Irish to make enough x-factor plays to send the Cardinal to their third consecutive loss.

Arkansas State

            Arkansas State got their first win in come back fashion over Georgia Southern last Wednesday. In the win Georgia Southern let off the gas a bit with injuries at quarterback. That coupled with South Alabama coming off a bye in which they defeated San Diego State outright is a contrarian factor. Grab Arkansas State to get the cover on a cheap favored line.

Oregon State

            The mindset of the Pac-12 is the league has become watered down. I see the opposite as teams in transition are challenging the former elites properly. One of those teams still struggling to do so is Oregon State. Yet, they've shown toughness to play solid in stretches.

            Those elements of a solid quarter or a half can carry over at home against the Utes. Utah is not built to blow out teams. Grab the Beavers to become the latest Pac-12 team to surprise on Saturday.

Northern Illinois

            Out in the MAC conference I like the value on the slightly home underdog Northern Illinois. Central Michigan has had a tough time since early in the season after their upset win over Oklahoma State. That win is still factored in this spread versus their losses to Western Michigan and Virginia. Look for Northern Illinois to continue to score against a reeling Central Michigan defense.

TB Buccaneers

One thing that can't evaporate with a team is injuries. Carolina is banged up and likely will be without Cam Newton Monday.

Sure, Derek Anderson came in and did some nice things in relief against the Falcons.

Yet, in a divisional game the Buccaneers should be prepared to have a detailed scouting report for Anderson unlike against the Broncos.

This is also a game where Jameis Winston should not have to force the football early.

Limiting the turnovers on the road will be the emphasis for the Buccaneers and executed properly.

Grab the Buccaneers on a spread that is more fitted for last year's 15-1 team and not this year's team. 

GB Packers

Coming off a bye week there is obvious boosted line elevation here on the Packers. 

New York is also a detracted team at this point off an abysmal offensive showcase on the road against the Vikings.

Still, the emphasis on the Packers for me here is the Giants defense.

They haven't been truly tested this season. In week one the Cowboys played it safe with rookie Dak Prescott. In week two the Saints did not travel well to New York, and in week three Kirk Cousins self errors derailed drives. 

Last week the Vikings moved the football with ease off of basic designed runs and throws.

Many have been waiting for the Packers to showcase a 2014 offensive style. After three weeks of getting back in sync and off a bye, this is a great time to buy the Packers.

Lay the seven.

LA Rams

It's not often that a team wins in the fashion that the Rams have the last three weeks and still find themselves not garnering respect.

A main reason for that is the fact that the Rams have struggled for standout wins outside their division under Jeff Fisher.

Buffalo on the other hand seems to have found the balance offensively and defensively many anticipated to start the season. The Bills defense has wreaked havoc on opposing teams but also played back to back games against vulnerable offenses in Arizona/New England.

I'm also leery of the Bills inability to limit penalties which is a cause of concern on the road. 

Grab the Rams.

Dallas Cowboys

Coming off a Thursday game the Bengals should be ready to attack two rookies in Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, correct?

Maybe so, but there are carry over issues that suggest otherwise.

The Bengals have been a poor third down team and have lacked the ability to finish off drives.

If it were not for big plays to AJ Green the Bengals would likely be a 1-3 team.

Dallas on the other hand is riding the wave of their youth to perfection.

They've also done a superb job at keeping Prescott at bay against the 49ers and Bears. 

Expect the Cowboys to unveil more wrinkles with Prescott and confidence to continue to grow as they reach unanticipated levels with a 4-1 start.

ASU

As poor as the Sun Devils looked last week they're 4-1. UCLA handled their business in accorded fashion against Arizona. Yet, they have not resembled the growth expected of a promising Bruins team. 

With ASU quarterback Manny Wilkins likely out that leaves more concerns for an ASU team. 

This though could be a boost for ATS backers as Todd Graham may have to tone down his aggressive defensive ways.

There is enough talent offensively for the Devils to hang in this one, especially at home. Grab ASU.

Arkansas

We're at the point that is natural to happen with a Nick Saban dominant team. Alabama has drifted to maybe it's highest level of ATS value with their offense matching their stout defense.

Yet, oddsmakers are on top of it, and are in this one.

Arkansas has been flying a bit under the radar in an SEC conference that has seen value driven down with teams such as LSU--Georgia--and the helper skelter Volunteers.

Grab Arkansas to stay in this one and be prepared from a coaching standpoint for four quarters of rigorous football.

UL Monroe 

Monroe will be put the test against an Idaho team that can score the football. Yet, even off an embarrassing loss to Auburn I like the strides Monroe has shown on both sides of the football. Their defense is trustworthy at home to back as a small favorite. Lock in Monroe as our latest Sun Belt winner.

Minnesota

Trading for Sam Bradford was mocked throughout the NFL and amongst football fans. Yet, the Vikings were seeking someone capable of being a true game manager to rely upon their defense.

That's exactly what Bradford has done with huge wins against the Packers and Panthers.

New York on the other hand could easily be in the same position as the Vikings at 3-0.

Yet, they've also been fortunate to not be 0-3 with narrow week one and two wins.

There's a personnel disparity between these two teams and it's one-sided with the Vikings.

Latch onto Minnesota whose disciplined style on both sides of the football will be too much for the Giants.

St. Louis

Jeff Fisher may be inching closer and closer to saving his job for another year. His Rams have responded well since a poor opening MNF loss, with consecutive wins as underdogs.

This week they'll take on an Arizona Cardinals team that was destroyed by a Bills team that looked like the stronger team.

Frankly, Arizona may be over valued based on last season. 

St. Louis is a team that has done well in Arizona against Palmer. They won outright there last season and the year prior knocked out Palmer with an injury.

Even at home this is too steep of a line to back the Cardinals as rusty as they've been.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Suddenly the belief with Denver is that anyone can man this team under center. Heck, they did it with Tebow and a broken down Peyton Manning. Why not believe what you see from Trevor Semien?

In my estimation Cincinnati was flat against Denver. They dropped a couple of interception opportunities and played safe football offensively.

That's not the style Tampa Bay coach Dirk Koetter will roll with on any given week.

Off back to back losses in which there defense has surrendered over 35 points, it would seem like Denver is set to go 4-0.

Yet, Jameis Winston's development will be key here. Tampa Bay's defense should also propel forward based on CJ Anderson's poor road statistics of below four yards a carry.

New Mexico State

Last week New Mexico State lost to Troy in beat down fashion worse than last year's shellacking.

This week they return home to face a UL Lafayette team that oddsmakers can't get right.

They've covered three consecutive games on small numbers, which frankly has been fortunate.

Offensively they've turned the ball over at an alarming rate and quarterback Anthony Jennings seems a bit lost on the field.

Frankly, there defense has kept them in games but that will be a tough task against a New Mexico State offense that can spread the football around.

Grab the value here on the home dogs.

California

The Cal Bears have been a tricky team to evaluate as they've lost three consecutive games in small margins.

Defensively they've been torn apart as Texas, ASU, and San Diego State all piled up yards and points against them.

Seemingly facing a disciplined Utah team would figure against them as well.

Yet, last year Cal matched up well against Utah on both sides of the football. In fact, if it were not for a mistake prone game by quarterback Jared Goff they likely would have pulled off the upset at Utah.

Davis Webb was nearly the sole difference in a win last week against ASU, this Saturday he is. Take the Cal Bears.

BYU

Coming into this season expectations were high for BYU with sixth year starter Taysom Hill returning.

Those expectations have simmered as the offense has fallen backward from where it was last season.

Facing an underrated MAC representative in Toledo could pose a letdown spot for the Cougars.

Yet, there's two sides of units to factor in when handicapping and I believe it's the Cougars defense that rises to the occasion here.

Ignore Hill's struggles and look for the Cougars defense to deliver the value and cover Friday night.

Scissoring from a home game to Oakland and down to New Orleans is the scenario the Atlanta Falcons are faced with.

They'll take on a Saints team that's been in both of their early losses to the Raiders and Giants.

Frankly, they're failing to hit that extra level as their team identity remains undefined.

Atlanta on the other hand has shifted their offensive game plan to Matt Ryan's strengths. He is spreading the football around and becoming more of a take what the defense gives me quarterback.

It's a recipe that bodes well on the road with an improved defense. Grab the Falcons to send the Saints to 0-3.

The Bears may have looked like the worst team in football on MNF. Yet, we've seen time and time again that the NFL is a different league on a week to week basis.

Yes, the Cowboys could easily be 2-0, but lets not forget the youth leading the way for them with two rookies in Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott.

Elliott fumbled the ball twice last week which surely will be in the back of his mind in a prime time spotlight game. Prescott has shined but is the rookie wall lurking with more film on him?

I'll take the Bears to keep this interesting in a bounce back favorable points position off last week's prime time dud.

Throughout Arizona State's struggles this season, the Sun Devils have made proper adjustments in second halves to avoid a loss.

California has a style of play that bodes to Arizona State's home field advantage and ability to adjust as the game goes on.

Expect ASU's young defense to cause disruptions and for ASU's under rated scoring offense to pile up points against the Cal Bears.

Down in the Sun Belt there is a lot of unknown with the majority of teams. UL Lafayette is one as they've been a bit dysfunctional in the early portion of there season.

The past two weeks they snuck by McNeese State and South Alabama with fortunate turnovers and big plays from the offense.

Yet, Tulane's style of play fits to the advantage of UL Lafayette.

Though this is the Rajun Cajuns first road game of the season expect them to be prepared against the Green Wave.

Last year the Ducks resurrected their season with a big road win against Colorado as slight favorites.

In that game the big advantage centered on the Ducks clear speed advantage over the Buffaloes.

Even though quarterback Sefo Liufau's status is undetermined the Buffaloes have an extra level of confidence to trust here in Eugene.

Unlike last year where the Buffaloes ran out of gas, expect them to hang tough and play two full halves against the Ducks.

 The Vikings are set to open their new stadium with uncertainty at the quarterback position.

Will Sam Bradford or veteran Shaun Hill be the starter?

Either way they'll need to combat a Packers team that showed vast strides from the team that lost to the Vikings in week seventeen last season.

Yet, I'm still leery of the immense amount of pressure on Aaron Rodgers to deliver on high degree of difficult plays.

Balance was a key asset to the Vikings surprise season last year and their week one win last week. Grab the Vikings to open their new stadium in grand fashion.

Play Minnesota Vikings

In last year's three matchups neither the Steelers nor Bengals had a healthy Ben Roethlisberger or Andy Dalton available.

Still, all games were competitive which should be a constant in week two's matchup.

One key from the Bengals has been their ability to neutralize Ben Roethlisberger. In the last four games he has faced the Bengals he has thrown four touchdowns to six interceptions.

This is a spot where Andy Dalton must show a trend forward as a quarterback instead of scattered ability.

This will be another close game in which I'll gravitate towards the Bengals.

This is an opportunity that the Sooners could have only hoped for after losing to the Houston Cougars.

A win at home against perennial dominant Ohio State and continued wins and the Sooners will have bypassed the waiting game in December.

Having faced the Cougars duel threat quarterback in Greg Ward should have the Sooners better prepared for Buckeyes quarterback JT Barrett.

Expect a grand Big 12 style up and down game that will be unaccustomed for Ohio State in the Big 10. 

Home field and consistent big plays will be the difference on the Sooners side here.

Adjusting to LSU transfer quarterback in Anthony Jennings has been an early season transition for Louisiana Lafayette.

Furthermore, the Rajun Cajuns defense has not helped make the process for Jennings easy. They allowed forty-five points in week one against Boise State and twenty-two points a week ago against McNeese State.

To start the season this will be the Rajun Cajuns third consecutive home game, which will be a deciding factor here.

Don't be surprised to see Lafayette score a considerable amount higher than the points allowed from South Alabama's defense of just twenty one against Miss State and twenty-four against Georgia Southern. 

Appalachian State nearly became week one Cinderella stories yet again against the Tennessee Volunteers.

Falling short may have turned value in our favor here in week three against the Miami Hurricanes.

The Hurricanes have started off their new era under Mark Richt with a 2-0 record. Yet, they struggled in the first half last week against Florida Atlantic with two touchdowns in the latter part of the second quarter.

On the road expect that rust to carry over and play to the strength of Appalachian State, who will be prepared this time to finish off a major division one school.

LA Rams

The hiring of Chip Kelly and Blaine Gabbert's effectiveness in last year's marginal home win are key angles for the underdog 49ers.

Also, the unease of Coach Jeff Fisher's position combined with Case Keenum starting are value detractors on the road.

Still, the Rams possess a talent edge on defense and with tail back Todd Gurley to eek out a road win and cover.

Expect x-factors of special teams, penalties, and game management to be the main contributors to the Rams win.

New England Patriots

Were now entering out of bounds territory in terms of the oddsmakers catching up with the Arizona Cardinals home field advantage.

Sure, the Patriots will be easing backup Jimmy Garrapulo into the fold, and Gronkowski is stating he is not one hundred percent.

Yet, this is a spot that Garrapulo was prepared for a season ago when Brady's suspension was initially over turned.

Expect the Patriots vanilla offensive game plan to churn the clock and get the Cardinals out of their rhythm.

They're a team that thrives on big plays, an area that started to evaporate towards the end of 2016.

Buffalo Bills

Fixation on a franchise can be a deadly combination ATS. The Ravens seem to be the AFC eyeballed team as the Giants are in the NFC.

Rex Ryan may have not had a stellar year one with the Bills but there were positive signs. Instead of envisioning a pairing with his brother hurting the team, improvement should be in line for the defense.

Three years ago against the Bills Joe Flacco threw five interceptions in one of his worst starts of his career.

This is an older Ravens team, lacking stability defensively. Former Ravens and now Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor should be able to exploit his former team and get the Bills a cover.

San Diego State

It's not often that you'll see a Mountain West team favored by a touchdown over a Pac-12 school.

While the Pac-12 enjoyed a solid week one, California is a team that is in an obvious down-turn in the conference.

On the other hand San Diego State may be one of the more under rated teams in the country. They've been shielded by the great success of Boise State and the inability to attract a main bowl game.

Look for the small school Mountain West Aztecs to ride fourth year starting tailback Donnel Pumphrey to a statement win over the Pac-12 Bears.

New Mexico State

We're venturing under the radar for a Saturday in-state rivalry matchup.

After defeating South Dakota 48-21, New Mexico travels to face Sun Belt representative New Mexico State.

In each of the past two seasons the Aggies have lost by ten points or less against the Lobos.

Aggies senior quarterback Tyler Rogers has been apart of both games and will have his team prepared for an up tempo game.

Secure the value here on an overlay of points based on the Aggies double-digit loss to the Miners and the Lobos statement win.

An old Big East rivalry clashes tonight as Louisville takes on Syracuse in the historic Carrier Dome.

The Cardinal made some noise last week with a scrimmage-like offensive performance churning 70 points against Charlotte.

Over the years they've enjoyed strong success against a Syracuse program transitioning with a new Coach in Dino Babers and a new athletic director.

Yet, I'll side with the home dog to as Syracuse should be prepared to limit Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson's effectiveness on the ground.

A new regime begins for the George Bulldogs under new Coach Kirby Smart.

Transitioning the program with a light opponent will not be the case as the Bulldogs will take on the rising North Carolina Tar Heels.

The Tar Heels return several key players from a surprising 11-3 season last year. 

At quarterback many are anticipating an upgrade with junior Mitch Trubisky taking over the reigns.

Yet, there is a bit of mirage over the SEC losing its luster after shaky non-conference performances last season.

With change over in Smart, expect to see an aggressive refreshed Bulldogs team.

Play: Georgia -3

Post Freddie Knighten the Arkansas State Wolves will aim to move forward collectively.

To open the season they'll host the Toledo Rockets whom they lost to last year 37-7. In that game Knighten was hurt which contributed to the downfall.

While the Rockets did lose quarterback Philip Ely to graduation they still have dynamic tailback Kareem Hunt at their disposal. 

This may seem like a revenge spot for the Wolves, but I harken back to the great defense the Rockets played in last year's contest.

Expect the Rockets to be prepared for the same schemes defensively and cover a small number as an underdog.

Play: Toledo +4.5

Play Arizona +3

            For the NFC Championship we'll grab the Cardinals plus the points. This game figures to be a dandy as this is the best combined record of an NFC Championship game since 1998 between the Falcons and Vikings. As great of a season as the Panthers have had I believe they're facing the one playoff opponent they likely wanted to avoid. Arizona's ability to spread the football out is a dimension of football that the Panthers have struggled with this season against the Colts, Eagles, Giants, Packers, Saints, and Seahawks last week. Arizona is also prepared to correct the past two seasons---missing the playoffs with an 11-5 record under Carson Palmer/Bruce Arians and last year's 9-1 start thwarted by a season ending injury to Palmer.  Also keep in mind last year the Cardinals led 14-13 at half with Ryan Lindley starting against the Panthers in the wild card round. That was done with just 64 offensive yards. Grab Az plus the points.

Green Bay +7

            This in my opinion is one of the strongest underdog value plays over the last five years in the playoffs. Arizona's rise to an ATS juggernaut has not been seen to this fast of a rise in quite some time. They were right up there with the Patriots week in and week out with public support. For their great games there were too many alarming games of inconsistency. Against the Bengals, Ravens, Rams, Seahawks, and a couple of other games I saw performances that gave the vibe of a team that would crumble in the playoffs. Green Bay on the other hand is at the bottom of the spectrum in terms of perceived value. That will change this weekend as the Packers avenge their loss to the Cardinals with an outright win.

Alabama -6.5

            We'll conclude the bowl season with a play on Alabama to win. This is Alabama's year and I think the second time around oddsmakers have got it right with favoring a BCS team properly against Clemson. The ACC has shown it's down side overall in the bowls while the SEC has shined heavily. Clemson should pose a challenge but you have to believe Saban and companies adjustments will be too much for the Tigers to overcome. Play Bama as last play of the collegiate football season.

Play Green Bay +1

            The lone premium NFL play will be on the Green Bay Packers +1. As great as Kirk Cousin's second half surge has been it needs to be examined further. His 19 TD's and two interceptions all came against losing opponents. Before that stretch Cousins had thrown 28 touchdowns and 28 interceptions in 22 starts. As poor as Green Bay looked the past two weeks I believe Aaron Rodgers can find a way to deliver a win here similar to wins against the Seahawks and Bears earlier in the season. Look for Rodgers to attack the Redskins 28th rated defense.

Oakland Raiders +7.5

            Kansas City finds themselves into the playoffs off of balanced offense and an uncanny ability to score with their defense. Oakland's season took a final dagger when they let a six point lead in the fourth quarter erode against Kansas City. Carr threw three interceptions in that fourth quarter including a pick six. I believe that loss stung the Raiders and that they'll come out ready on both sides of the football in Kansas City. They also have motivation as a team to send out Charles Woodson in style. Grab the Raiders.

New Orleans Saints +6

            The reported rumors of the end of the Payton/Brees era has not effected the quarterback whatsoever. The Saints offense was back in order against the Jaguars and I expect it to have its way against the Falcons as well. Atlanta may have knocked off the undefeated Panthers but there issues are well documented. We'll grab the value of the Saints to close out the regular season.

Oregon +1

            On the collegiate level there is not a quarterback more entertaining to watch in bowl season than Vernon Adams Jr. Whether the defense gives up a touchdown or he throws an interception his mindset and play does not change. TCU has the back ground of a top five to ten team with senior players exiting. It just was not their year and I believe the Ducks will have their way to close out the Horned Frogs strong program run over the last three years.

Iowa +7

            How Stanford is a seven point favorite here is the one spread I have not figured out. Having watched nearly all their games this season they've played to level of their competition more times than not. Two wins over USC may have their ATS value skewed here. Iowa's defense will force enough turnovers off of Kevin Hogan to keep this within the number.

Michigan State +10

            In the books in Vegas I love to here the commotion on teams. Everyone's mindset is that this is Alabama's year. Maybe it is, but from an ATS stand point they've faltered more times than not. Michigan State Head Coach Mark Dantonio has put on the best coaching job of the season in my eyes. From poor performance wins against Indiana, Purdue, and Central Michigan to solid wins over Iowa/Ohio State. They've also progressed as the season has went on. Alabama will be put the test and likely prevail but expect another strong effort from the Spartans.

Florida State -7

            Florida State in my book has the best value of any team favored by seven or more in bowl season. Two losses this year---one on a blocked field goal as time expired and another against undefeated Clemson---has put this mirage that FSU has had a down season. Instead I expect FSU to show the same pedigree of a championship caliber team that they've displayed over the past two years. Houston's strength in the American conference was their athleticism. That will be nullified at quarterback with Greg Ward Jr and through the defense of the Cougars. Grab FSU.

Miss State -5

            NC State's 19th rated defense has to be looked at under a microscope. Their five losses in conference they allowed over 37 points a game and mind-boggling yardage. Their only wins in-conference were against the bottom feeders of the ACC who had a combined record of 10-28. Nothing changes here as the Bulldogs have too prolific of an offense for the Wolfpack to hold down. Dak Prescott goes out a winner and adds on to a stellar season statistically.

Auburn -2.5

            Memphis strong start and win over an SEC team in Ole Miss may seem like a good reason to back them against the Auburn Tigers. Yet, I did not like what I saw from the Tigers to conclude the season. The offense has not looked the same and the defense may be one of the worst in the bowl season. Adding Mike Norvell as their new Coach puts an added twist in the reason to back the Auburn Tigers. Norvell showed true inconsistencies at ASU as their offensive coordinator that will be spotlighted in this game.

LSU -7

            Les Miles and LSU should have their way defensively and offensively against the Big 12 Texas Tech. It's the same old script we tend to see from the Big 12 in bowl season and won't change against the more physical and powerful Tigers.

California -7

            Jared Goff had woes all season long and did not play like the elite level quarterback that draft prognosticators foresee him as. But when you've been a starter for numerous seasons and are in the Pac-12 your going to face elite talent. California just did not have the talent to surround Goff and be successful in the Pac-12. Facing Air Force will be a different story and I expect Goff to finally have a performance worthy of a high drafted quarterback.

Cincinnati Bengals +3.5

            The Broncos downfall is one of the more peculiar stories of the season. Their strong defense has somewhat worn down from the lack of offensive support received from quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler.  How will an offense suddenly shift especially in a spot where Osweiler is dinged up and Manning is ready to come back on the field? Even at home and with backup AJ McCarron starting I'll side with the balance of the Bengals here. Grab Cincinnati to solidify their rights to a bye week on the road against the struggling Broncos.

Central Michigan +6

            This is one bowl game where I'll put an asterisk on a defense in the Chippewas that can be supported solely by quarterback play. The Gophers are not a juggernaut scoring team which gives value to the Chippewas who are led by an underrated bowl quarterback in Cooper Rush.

Navy -3

            Something just was off with the Pittsburgh Panthers football team as the season waned on. Under a new Coach they seemed to hit that wall of change. Navy led by all time leading QB rusher Keenan Reynolds should handle this game.

Green Bay +4.5

            Green Bay is a team in December that I won't fade against. We've been 5-0 for/against them ATS this season backing them against the Vikings, Lions, Cowboys, Seahawks and once against the Broncos. They've been 17-4 since 2011 in the months of December and are getting road value here simply for the fact that the Cardinals have been a dominant team at home.  But, with two games left and Arizona up two games on the Packers for a bye there is a chance for the Packers to close out and hurdle the Cardinals with help from Seattle in week seventeen.  Get ready for the first playoff atmosphere type game since the Broncos/Patriots a few weeks back. Back Aaron $$ Rodgers and the Packers Sunday who are getting too many points.

Houston -5

            The QB carousel of the Texans has been hard to watch over the course of this season. But Brandon Weeden starting in this spot may be the conservative need the Texans need. I feel they've stirred away from the running game a bit over the last six weeks. Weeden showed against the Eagles that he can run a simplistic conservative style with a protected defense. That's the recipe here as the Texans defense led by JJ Watt is on a mission to break their funk of missing out on the playoffs

Nebraska +6.5

            A 5-7 team does not belong in bowl season but I believe we'll see a worthy effort from the Corn Huskers. Don't forget Mike Riley has a Pac-12 background from 03-14 as Oregon State Coach. Also, Nebraska has been a great team at playing close games. Five of their losses were by five points or less and all seven by ten or less. UCLA like Memphis defense is too much of an eyesore to back in bowl season.

Philadelphia Eagles -3

            Each time I've counted out Philadelphia they've showed the toughness to battle back. We did get a win last week with Arizona against them. Luckily for Philadelphia they still have a fighting chance to win the NFC East and make the playoffs.  One of the best first to second half turn around performances that still led to a loss was the Eagles against the Redskins earlier this season. Trailing 13-0 the Eagles came out of the half with a quick surge. They did fall short but look for the strengths they discovered in the second half of that game to come to the forefront here. Grab the Eagles Saturday.

Duke +3

            Indiana has now crept up to a three-point favorite. Yes, they did have some formidable games in the Big Ten against the Buckeyes and Spartans. But there are certain teams in bowl season that nearly a full month of preparation poses a disadvantage. The Hoosiers are one in my book as they play a style of play game to game that never had any wrinkles. Look for Duke who can win in an array of ways to come out as an underdog winner.

Washington -8.5

            Chris Peterson and people in Washington know that they have a legitimate top 15 team heading into next season. Southern Miss has immense talent but this matchup just doesn't suit them. The Huskies close the season with two wins to become bowl eligible and will have the type of performance that likely will place them as a top fifteen 2016 team.

UConn +5

            UConn has the look of one of those 6-6 teams that puts on a performance far superior than what they showcased in the regular season. Teams from smaller conferences that are juggernauts point wise often are trap teams in bowl scenarios. Look for UConn to be prepared and deliver as an underdog

Was going to leave today alone but we'll play the Saints.

New Orleans -2.5

The Saints abysmal season has continued to drop their value ATS. Once a guaranteed 6 point or higher favorite at home, they've become normal to be low favorites at home now. That is the case today against a Lions team that has fallen back to Earth after a late October-early November hot streak.   I like how the Saints have not mailed in their season and have begun to look like a team that will carry momentum into 2016. While the Lions are who they are. Grab the Saints as a MNF mid-day add.

Arizona Cardinals -3.5

            Arizona has answered the bell time and time again in big spots ATS. Around a month ago they created distant separation in their division by defeating the Seahawks on the road. This team has thoughts of side stepping woes that caused their team to falter in 2013 and 2014. The Eagles may have won two games in a row but I do not believe their offense is capable of matching Arizona's. We'll grab the Cardinals Sunday night.

Denver Broncos +7.5

            The Steelers have won with so much ease that it seems like they're the AFC leader en route to a bye week. Yet that's not the case. They're 8-5 and have faced off against backup quarterbacks in consecutive weeks. Brock Osweiler will be the third but the difference for Denver is they have the top defense in the NFL. Look for the Broncos to bring the Steelers offense down to Earth a bit. We'll grab the 7.5.

Baltimore Ravens +7

            Baltimore has had a disastrous season after years of winning football. A losing record may not look good overall but surprisingly they've been a decent ATS team. Getting seven at home against a Chiefs team that is red-hot is all the inflation I need. Look for Baltimore to play another tightly contested game. Win/loss they'll fall within the seven point spread.

12/14 05:30 PM  NFL   (133) NEW YORK GIANTS VS (134) MIAMI DOLPHINS (12/11 03:26 PM) edit

Take: (134) MIAMI DOLPHINS 

Reason: Play Dolphins +1.5 The NFC East is as tough as any division to figure out. One team that I won't buy in the division is the New York Giants. Believing a team can rectify their consistent issues in the fourth quarter is not a philosophy to approach in December. The Giants have lost five leads in the fourth quarter this season and are over rated ATS currently in my opinion. Miami is also stellar outside their division this season with a 5-2 record versus 0-5 against AFC East opponents. We'll grab the Fish.

12/13 01:25 PM  NFL   (129) DALLAS COWBOYS VS (130) GREEN BAY PACKERS (12/11 03:24 PM) edit

Take: (130) GREEN BAY PACKERS 

Reason: Play Packers -6.5 I commented on two teams before their surges to snare in the Seahawks against the Steelers which rolled over to last week's win against Minnesota and also the Packers who were fortunate to defeat the Lions. Yet, they are in great position at 8-4 to not only win the NFC North but possibly challenge the Cardinals for a bye week. They face the Cardinals soon and also the Vikings. Dallas just has not shown the dedication offensively to sustain battles against formidable offensive teams. Aaron Rodgers may not be getting top notch play from position players but sooner than later you have to expect his core group of receivers to come together for a big game. A few scores here at home and that will be too much for the Cowboys to match.

12/13 10:00 AM  NFL   (113) WASHINGTON REDSKINS VS (114) CHICAGO BEARS (12/11 03:31 PM) edit

Take: (113) WASHINGTON REDSKINS 

Reason: Play Washington +3.5 The team being counted out the most in the Redskins in the East is probably going to perform the best of the NFC East teams week fourteen. Washington faces a Bears team that is just 1-5 at home and plays to the style that their defense and offense has excelled against this season. Look for Kirk Cousins and the Redskins to get back to a better style of offense after a far too conservative game plan against the Cowboys. The Bears are unconfident at home and a bit too banged up to back Sunday.

12/13 10:00 AM  NFL   (123) TENNESSEE TITANS VS (124) NEW YORK JETS edit

Take: (123) TENNESSEE TITANS 

Reason: Play Titans plus 7 We'll buy the Titans Sunday against the Jets getting a full touchdown. The transformation the Jets have undergone under new head coach Todd Bowles and journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a great story. Yet, they don't blow you away with the caliber of play they've displayed in their wins. This is a value play as the Jets likely would have been 5.5 point favorites had they not came back against the Giants last week. Mariotta has looked comfortable since Whisenhunt was fired and I expect him to be able to keep the Titans in Sunday's matchup. Grab the Titans.

Dallas +4.5

The Redskins have been as dominant as you can possibly be at home, with all five of their wins coming at home. Their only loss was week one against Miami in what was a winnable game. Yet I like the Cowboys in this spot. For once the high hopes of the Cowboys have darted and been tossed out the window. That takes the pressure off of the team that had no chance with Romo out for practically the entire season. Lets not forget Matt Cassell was also thrown into the fire after being traded by Buffalo with the demotion of Brandon Weeden. Now he's had time to learn the system and also sat on the sideline for nearly two starts. He is use to a backup role and I believe coming off the bench will serve him better this game. I do not expect the Redskins to bypass their typical game managing game plan with Kirk Cousins, especially with the division lead. Look for the Cowboys to grab this cover.

Saints +7.5

            It looks like the oddsmakers have finally set a steep enough line on the undefeated Panthers to back the opposing team. The Saints may have had the best performance by an offense this season against the Carolina Panthers and that came with their backup starting in McCown. They moved the football well all game and had a chance to win late before an interception. Even though Carolina has been winning they've shown blemishes on offense that have been side stepped because of their defense. The defense can't always bail you out. Expect the Saints to battle hard in this one and cover a high number.

Raiders +3

The Raiders and Chiefs have been two of the toughest teams to figure out this season. Kansas City has stormed back into the AFC playoff picture while the Raiders are a team that has shown poise and unexpected growth. I'm always a believer in the month of December that you can find value ATS pursuing wild card teams. Separating the believers from the non-believers. KC I just can't buy. Their five wins in a row need to be looked at under a microscope. They annihilated a Lions team in Europe that immediately made changes upon coming home. Pittsburgh started third string quarterback Landry Jones and Denver started an obviously hindered Peyton Manning. San Diego has been in landslide mode and Buffalo just didn't have enough on the road in KC.   They've also won by opening up the offense for Alex Smith, which has not been his strength over his entire career. Look for Oakland to utilize their home crowd and for Carr to put up solid numbers to pull off the ATS cover.

UL Lafayette -2

            Fans of the Rajun Cajuns are unaccustomed to the struggles they've witnessed from their team this season. The offense has sputtered in close losses to South Alabama and New Mexico State that was topped off by a 21-point loss last week to Appalachian State. To end a three game skid they'll look to do so against Troy which has also had a less than stellar season. The personnel is there for Lafayette. Expect them to grind out another close game but this time pull out the W against a Troy team that will not have an answer for Elijah McGuire.

UL Monroe +2

            Monroe has been an absolute untrustworthy team for the month of November ATS, and has had an abysmal year with a record of 1-11. Yet I like the effort in the way they battled back from a big deficit last week to Hawaii to cover in a two-point loss. Typically you would not find value on a 1-11 team that's just a two-point underdog at home. Monroe will battle hard in this one and get their second victory of the season with a win over New Mexico State which should be relenting on defense

Temple +6

            The Houston Cougars and Temple Owls seemed like they were on track to battle in the championship as undefeated teams just a bit over a month ago. Two losses by the Owls and a recent loss to UConn by Houston changed all of that. Houston responded in great fashion a week ago with the return of Greg Ward Jr. to the lineup from injury. Yet often times people forget just how much can be lost by missing two games of action. This is a championship game against a veteran team in the Temple Owls. Expect Ward to show some rust and for the Owls to continue to show proper strides they've showcased the last several weeks. Grab the Owls.

Green Bay -3

            Thursday the Packers travel on the road to try and avenge a home loss to the Lions. Just a little over a month ago the Packers were 6-0 but have stumbled losing four of their last five games. Still at 7-4 the Packers are in prime position to go on a December run with games against the Lions, Cowboys, and Raiders before playoff position games against the Cardinals and Vikings. Look for September and October's normalcy to return from the 0-5 Lions and 6-0 Packers as the Packers start a December run.