Saturday morning SEC’s Mississippi State will host the Big 12’s Kansas State. This matchup marks the third straight home game to begin the season for Mississippi State. Penn State quarterback transfer Tommy Stevens has looked efficient. Yet look for Kansas State’s pace of play to be a boost ATS here. Grab the full touchdown of points.

The North Carolina Tar Heels will aim to go 3-0 as they travel in-state to take on Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have shown a prolific offense scoring 38 points and 41 to begin the season. They’v also played both of their first two games on Friday. Look for a full four quarters of focus to continue to benefit the Tar Heels. Grab North Carolina. 

The prime time lights will feature two Monday night football games. One of focus will be the Saints. They’ll take on a Houston Texans team that has octane weapons at wide receiver and one of the streakiest quarterbacks in football in DeShaun Watson. The Saints will have to adjust without former tailback Mark Ingram and the fact that there are still concerns at the receiver position behind Mike Thomas. Expect the ageless veteran Drew Bree’s to deliver a typical Brees prime time performance and a Saints cover. 

Over the years the Carolina Panthers have developed a stout reputation with Cam Newton under center as a great home team. They’ve had a way of controlling pace and finishing off games in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile the Rams were one of the few teams to not play their starters one bit in pre-season. Expected rust and a long road trip have trimmed this spread down. Yet I expect to see Jared Goff prepared with his vast weapons at wide receiver to showcase the Goff that flashed to begin 2018.

The hype for the Cleveland Browns finally takes center stage Sunday. All the additions and coaching changes have shifted the mentality of on field expectations. They’ll face an AFC opponent in the Titans that have under achieved multiple years with Marcus Mariotta as quarterback. His pre-season performance put a cloud on if he’ll be able to maintain the starting job over Ryan Tannehill. Defensively they can stay in this game. While the Titans offense gets enough done to cover here. 

Justified concerns exist for both Stanford and USC entering Saturday. Injuries to their top quarterbacks have cast doubt on the prospects of their season. Stanford showed in week one that their offense is going to be a work in progress all season, and this hit probably expands those worries. As much as people harp on David Shaw’s coaching style this is the type of game where he can lean on a structured balanced game plan. Grab Stanford.

The Colorado Buffaloes showed strengths and weaknesses in their opening victory over Colorado State. Their offense is dynamic with multiple potent weapons in their backfield and familiar names at wide receiver. A plus for their quarterback Steven Montez is his best collegiate performance came against Nebraska last year in which he threw for 351 yards. Trying to replicate that performance and an up tempo game plan bodes to the advantage of the Cornhuskers. Grab Nebraska to avenge last year’s home loss.

One of the worst performances of week one came from the Akron Zips. They were blown out by an Illinois team that dominated from start to finish 42-3. Returning home for week two they’ll face a UAB team that struggled to beat Alabama State 24-19. Yet look for UAB’s dual threat quarterback Tyler Johnston III to keep pace on UAB’s side. Eventually look for the ground game of the Blazers to over power the Zips. Grab UAB. 

The first game to kick things off Saturday comes between the ACC Pittsburgh Panthers and MAC Ohio Bobcats. This is a familiar spot and number for Ohio who faltered a year ago against Virginia. Senior quarterback Nathan Rourke has never been a light it up type of collegiate quarterback but has the savvy to keep the Bobcats in this one. Expect a close competitive game where the Bobcats hold on for the cover in the fourth. 

For the second straight week the Wake Forest Demon Deacons will play on Friday. Last week they had a thrilling comeback victory and held off Utah State. Now they’ll face a Rice team that had a disastrous 2018 season in which they finished 2-11. Offensively they did not show much in week ones loss to Army scoring just seven points. Yet they gained confidence defensively and should maneuver against a Demon Deacons defense that isn’t as strong as years past. Grab Rice

The Oklahoma Sooners will be in the Sunday prime time spot as they take on the Houston Cougars. Lots of changes have been made for the Houston Cougars as they brought in former West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen. Holgorsen inherits lethal dual threat senior quarterback D’Eriq King and a talented Cougars team that finished he regular season 8-4. Holgorsen’s familiarity of the Big 12 and Oklahoma could be a catalyst early for the Cougars. Yet expect the Sooners who have steadily improved defensively to push through for the cover. Grab Oklahoma. 

Virginia Tech and Boston College will kick off the first true conference matchup on the new ACC network. The Golden Eagles ended last season on a three game slide after starting the year 7-2. The Hokies will attempt to avenge last years home loss to the Golden Eagles. Similar to last year the point of the season for this scheduled matchup gives the edge to the Golden Eagles style. Grab Boston College 

The Kentucky Wildcats will aim to take another big step forward after 2018s strong season. Minus running back Benny Snell the Wildcats will have a big void to fill. They’ll face a Toledo team that’s been ATS friendly and led by returning junior quarterback Eli Peters. Yet look for the Wildcats to put their imprint on this opener and get the ATS cover.

The Colorado Buffs were one of the more disappointing teams in the Pac-12 last season. Expected momentum off of prior seasons just did not happen. Quarterback Steven Montez’s struggles were well documented but he is a candidate to make one of the better turn arounds this season. In a battle of in-state teams look for the Buffaloes to pour it on and start the 2019 season off with a quality win. 

Noteworthy line movements in the NFL are typically correct. A three point line move from the initial Super Bowl offering to the Patriots is for proper reason. Towards the tail end of the season the Patriots utilize their defense to pick up their offense. Now in the playoffs the offense has met the defense to create a better team than last year’s run. Meanwhile the Rams injuries with Kupp/Gurley have diminished the offense. As great as the defense is they’re susceptible to both the run/pass. Look for the Patriots to squeeze out another Super Bowl title to the Belichick/Brady dynasty. 

During Tom Brady’s Father Time era he has produced to a high degree especially without Peyton Manning in his way. Sunday is a different story though as the Patriots will not host the AFC Championship. That’s a big key as Tom Brady and the Patriots are just 1-4 on the road in the AFC since 2005. Look for Andy Reid and the Chiefs to have the offensive production to protect quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Grab the Chiefs. 

The Saints turn around a week ago was brilliant from a defensive view. Yet the offense still has not been the same as it was through late November. The same can be said for the LA Rams who’ve limited Jared Goff’s passing and relied heavily on a ground attack. Look for more the Rams to get Goff going early and for the ground attack that the Eagles did not have to carry the Rams in the second half. Take the points here. 

The Philadelphia Eagles had the game that every big seed in March Madness has that does well. They survived a game they should have lost against the Chicago Bears. Now they’ll get new life with a prime matchup against a Saints team that blew them out 48-7. Since that game both teams have gone in different directions. While the Eagles still don’t have top notch personnel defensively they’ve grown enough to trust in this tough spot. Back the Eagles here.

Throughout the final leg of the NFL season the discussion of the Patriots has been Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski’s decline. While the offense has not been stellar guess which unit has? Their defense. Aside from the crazy game against Miami the Patriots defense has surrendered 17 points or less since mid-November. That’s a big key against a Chargers team continuing an East coast road playoff round for the second consecutive week. Grab the value on the Patriots. 

It’s another college football championship and yet another matchup between Clemson and Alabama. While Alabama has a lot of the same key pieces as prior runs, it’s Clemson that has modified their team. A true freshman quarterback and key upgrades defensively have them primed to stay in this game similar to their run with DeShaun Watson. Line detraction for the Tigers lies with suspensions on the defensive side of the football. Yet look for Dabo and his assistants to have a proper game plan in place. Grab Clemson. 

Conditions in San Diego are expected to involve rain. Throughout the year Northwestern was a darling ATS. Covering a plethora of matchups with late surges and underdog outright victories. Yet Utah is a team that has size on the defensive end to prevent Wildcats sustained drives. There offense is never great but look for key plays to lead to a spread clearance. Grab the Utes. 

Most of the games that have NFL playoff implications are slotted in the afternoon slots. With that being said the team needing to win to get in are the Minnesota Vikings. They’ll face a Chicago Bears team that likely knows off the bat that they aren’t going to hurdle the Rams for a bye week. That’s boosted the line too high on the Vikings side. Grab the value on the Bears. 

Down the stretch we saw the Virginia Cavaliers fade. They lost three of four in a tough ACC conference, and it appeared quarterback Bryce Perkins wore down a bit. The Cavaliers offensive system puts too much of a burden on Perkins which is a heavy factor in the original point spread. Although South Carolina’s schedule doesn’t match Virginia they’re the right side. Grab South Carolina. 

An aggressive line buy down has made tonight’s night matchup even more intriguing. Washington State will be the second bowl representative out of the Pac-12. It’s well known that the Pac-12 has been subpar and mediocre in bowl seasons of the past. Iowa State’s been a team that will fight no matter the scenario of their game. Yet look for Washington State to be able to counter Iowa State’s in-game adjustments to pull off the cover. Grab Washington State. 

Seeing Auburn finish 3-5 in conference play was shocking. They’ll face a Purdue team that has rose to the occasion this year against top teams such as their win over Ohio State. Senior quarterback David Blough and the Boilermakers will look to replicate their upset last year as a small dog over Arizona. Instead grab the value on Auburn whom has the offensive and defensive balance to topple Purdue ATS. Grab Auburn. 

Stumbling into bowl season is typically a recipe for disaster. Vanderbilt comes into tonight’s bowl with impressive late season wins in SEC conference play. That in itself is an ATS inflator with eyes on the impressive SEC. Look for Baylor’s quick strike offense and speed to keep them in this game. Grab Baylor. 

The Seattle Seahawks continue to be small number underdogs or favorites at home. That’s a sign of their team not having much of an identity. During their five game win streak they found ways late to prevail to victory. Last week it finally bit them as they lost in overtime against San Francisco. Sometimes it takes a loss as such for the pendulum of confidence to settle in. Look for the Chiefs to be better prepared after a couple of rusty weeks minus Kareem Hunt. 

San Francisco suddenly has has found an offensive package that works for quarterback Nick Mullens. They’ll face a Chicago Bears team that has won seven of eight games and has covered in all victories (10) but one game. That’s created value similar to the small road number the Bears were in a loss to the Giants. Grab San Francisco whom seems to be riding the same end of season wave they had a year ago with Jimmy Garrapollo.

The MAC for years has been a disappointment during bowl season. That has changed to begin bowl play and I look for that to continue this evening with Buffalo. An interesting angle for today’s bowl is that Troy is playing in their home state of Alabama. The MAC is one of the few conferences thats travel is minimal throughout conference play for away games. That presents value on a Buffalo team thats program is on the rise. Grab Buffalo.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of a team that strangely became better minus their starting quarterback. With backup Kaleb Newman in the team has re-energized with upsets over NC State and a strong win over Duke. Although Memphis is tough to handle defensively for four quarters look for the ACC Demon Deacons to prevail ATS. 

A five game losing streak has left the Carolina Panthers from a likely playoff team to a what-if season. A tough five game stretch featured four of five road games. Yet overall the Panthers have been a great home team at 5-1 which likely downgraded Monday’s spread. In a division rivalry game look for the value to be on a Saints team that is oblivious to any opponents dire situations. Grab New Orleans.

Issues with the Eagles have been visible all season long. Lacking an impact runner due to injuries the offense has not looked the same. Now it appears Carson Went will sit out the final two games with the Eagles playoff chances slim. With the LA Rams coming off a loss one would expect the Rams to respond strongly. Yet look for the Eagles to show some pride. Nick Foles is similar to Ryan Fitzpatrick in the fact that he can produce in spot start opportunities. Grab the Eagles.

During bowl season the Sun Belt has done an outstanding job over the years. Appalachian State has stood out from the pack thanks to their superb regular seasons. They’ll look to finish off another great year against a Middle Tennessee team that lost two of their final three games. Yet Appalachian State’s methodical offense is an issue ATS. Grab the points here on Middle Tennessee. 

Fresno State will look to finish off a solid year with a victory over a potent Arizona State offense. Arizona State is led by senior quarterback Manny Wilkins whom has done a solid job transitioning from Todd Graham. Still, ASU’s defense is going to have high problems against the Bulldogs offense. That’s where the tail end growth of ASU nixing a defensive strategy comes into play. Look for ASU to match the Bulldogs scoring and cover an aggressive line move.  

This is a spot where a young team can grow within the season from a Chicago Bears stand point. In a similar spot the Bears stormed out to a sizable lead against the New England Patriots only to lose their composure in small areas (special teams, turnovers, etc). With Mitch Trubisky returning rust is expected but look for the Bears defense to continue being opportunistic. Grab Chicago. 

On the year the Arizona Cardinals have been a solid team ATS. They’re one of the few teams that have been able to accomplish this with a poor record. After last week’s outright win against the Packers their value is sky high. With the Lions poor road record and tailspin season this is a tough spot to assess, especially with the Cardinals new found rushing attack. Yet look for the Lions to get some balance going for four quarters and defeat Arizona. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers suddenly find themselves with their backs against the walls. Two straight losses and three straight wins by the Ravens have made the AFC North very interesting. While the Raiders are still abysmal on both sides of the ball they’re starting to show signs of fight. The ability to play spoiler should keep this team in another game on a high spread. Grab the Raiders. 

At no point this season have the Eagles looked like prior Super Bowl champions. They’ve struggled to generate the same offense under the same scheme and defensively they’re not the same. They’ll take on a Washington Redskins team that has equal incentive to win with playoff hopes riding on tonight. Extra rest is tied into the Redskins MNF spread similar to their MNF matchup against the Saints (Off a bye week). Look for similar results as the Redskins have been a team ready to crumble for weeks. Grab Philadelphia.

Both the Chargers and Steelers have a common loss on their resume in losing to Denver. Aside from each loss both have ripped off big win streaks. In a potential playoff wild card matchup look for the Chargers to continue their upper level play on the road. Overall they’re 4-1 on the road and also have a home London win on their belt. Look for the Chargers to find plenty of offense on the Steelers defense similar to the way the KC Chiefs spread offense attacked. Grab LA 

The injury ravaged San Francisco 49ers have not been effective ATS. That’s not the norm for a team getting points on a weekly basis. Yet this week’s matchup bodes advantageous for the 49ers. Value factors are available with the 49ers heavy road travel. They’re coming off a trip to Tampa Bay, Florida and now will go into the always difficult Seahawks Century Link Field. The Seahawks recent big wins are a bit misleading as they’ve been in difficult holes. Look for that to be a catalyst in a 49ers cover. Grab San Francisco

It’s hard to believe that the Jets were once a .500 team near the mid-season point at 3-3. Five straight losses have all been linked to ATS results as well. After last week’s near cover it showcased just how poor the Jets talent is offensively. Many would expect the Titans to storm over the Jets but the Titans have a look of a team that’s shaken. Tough losses on the year including a failed two point conversion against the Chargers and consecutive division losses are gut wrenching. Grab the value on the Jets.

A revenge spot for the Sooners lies in Saturday’s Big 12 matchup against Texas. With a win and a Georgia loss the Sooners likely would make it back to the CFB playoff. Motivation to impress for the committee is certainly a spread uplifter. Instead look for Texas to play spoiler in more ways than one. The Sooners have been winning but they’ve shown plenty of weaknesses as of late. Grab Texas.

For the first time the Sun Belt hosts a conference championship. As expected Appalachian State is back but will take on a veteran UL Lafayette team. A vulnerable element for a high spread is the fact that the Mountaineers haven’t been scoring many points in-conference. Instead they’ve relied on their defense and that’s where the value on Appalachian State lies. In four of their six conference wins they’ve allowed ten points or less. Expect much of the same Saturday and a cover.

The second matchup of the season between the Packers and Vikings will be on Sunday Night football. This is a do or die matchup for both the Vikings and Packers as each team has to make a run to get into the post-season. While many are use to Aaron Rodgers willing his team after an average start times are changing. Look for the Vikings depth and prime time devalue (2 SNF losses) to play into the hands of the small favorite. Grab Minnesota.

Off a poor loss to the Broncos signs are that the Chargers may revert to the pattern of seasons past. Yet the NFL is a new style game that bodes to the advantage of the Chargers ATS Sunday against the Cardinals. The safe Cardinals passing offense under new OC Byron Leftwich appears to be hitting a bit of a wall. Look for the Chargers to be aggressive defensively and for a big day for the Chargers.

Two former top twenty-five teams have seen reversals of their seasons. California has turned theirs around thanks to improved defense and winning three of their last four. Meanwhile Colorado has dropped six straight while not covering any of those matchups. Damaging their season further was the firing of Coach MacIntyre, with him gone for Saturday the line has moved further up. Instead of looking at the Buffaloes dropping their heads look for them to play strong. They still have a chance to become bowl eligible and will put up a hard fought game. 

The SMU Mustangs will have one last try to secure a bowl bid after faltering last week to Memphis. They’ll take on a Tulsa team that’s record is not true to their true capabilities. With a chance to play spoiler expect Tulsa to play with impact energy. On the year all four of their home losses were by close margins. That’ll continue Saturday and on a small number be key to an SMU cover. 

In key spots the Syracuse Orangemen have shown they’re still a few key position spots away from having the talent to be elite. In all likelihood they’ll be without senior quarterback Eric Dungey and have to rely on freshman Tommy DeVito. DeVito did not look prepared last week but has shown the capabilities to be an emerging quarterback. Look for Syracuse’s defense to be prepared off the embarrassing performance and boost the Cuse’s chances.

Bettors are backing the strength of schedule of Marshall over Florida Internationals. Marshall faced Southern Miss in conference as the Panthers did not, they also had a non-conference loss to NC State. Returning from three of four road games the pressure is certainly on the Panthers. Look for them to respond 

Nebraska’s end of season conclusion in the right direction has one more stop Friday. They’ll travel to Iowa and take on a Hawkeyes team that is coming off one of the more dominating victories of the season. Last week they walloped Illinois 63-0 to improve to 7-4 on the year. The Cornhuskers will face a step up in class against the Hawkeyes in a road environment. Yet look for the line move to provide value on the underdog. Grab Nebraska. 

The Atlanta Falcons disappointing season has finally crossed over to value depreciation. On a short week they’ll take on a Saints team that has shown no mercy against countless opponents including last year’s Super Bowl champion in the Philadelphia Eagles. The dismantling of the Eagles on a high number forced the oddsmakers hands on a short week. Look for Atlanta to show signs of a divisional team and cover a high number. 

Coming off a bye week the NFC North race can be swung a tad with Sunday Night football’s matchup between the Vikings and Bears. From a strength of schedule standpoint oddsmakers have not been fooled by the Bears. Their lone win against a quality opponent came in week two against the Seahawks, and their 3-straight wins came against the Jets, Bills, and Lions. Yet there is a moment to swing a division and give a new team momentum. The Vikings still have ATS value attraction based on last year’s strong run but look for the Bears to add a cushion to the division. 

Growing momentum ATS has continued to pick up for the Chargers. Beyond the mid-season it can be hard for bettors to gravitate towards a team. Well the Chargers have rolled off six straight wins and covered five in a row. After four straight games on the road one would expect a team rolling to continue at home. Yet look for the Broncos and their inner divisional knowledge of the Chargers to keep this closer than oddsmakers think. Grab the Broncos.

Since changing over and firing offensive coordinator Mike McCoy the Cardinals have looked much better. New OC Byron Leftwich has blended the offense for proper play calls to aide rookie Josh Rosen. A comeback win over San Francisco and a tough loss to the KC Chiefs showcased that the Cardinals are playing harder. That can’t be said for the Oakland Raiders whom have looked poor in every possible phase. Yet this is a spot where the Raiders personnel is not over whelmed talent-wise. Grab the value on Oakland. 

There are few teams in college football that have got more out of their talent than ASU. There’s no doubt that Herm Edwards has had his team well prepared week in and week out. Now they’ll venture on the road to Oregon against a Ducks team that’s decimated with injuries on both sides of the football. That’s a big factor in the small line but look for the Ducks to be ready for the Devils simplified game plan. Grab Oregon.

After the Cowboys faltered in the fashion they did one has to wonder their psyche for Saturday. They’ll face a Mountaineers team that has shown no mercy home or away and is primed to put on another offensive dazzling show behind quarterback Will Grier. Oklahoma State’s poor conference record has created value on them Saturday. Look for an enthused Cowboys squad that puts in a max effort. Grab Oklahoma State. 

The fact that Georgia State has not been winning is well known at just 2-8. Yet they’ve been able to produce points within the conference. They’re averaging 31 points per game through six conference games. Yet Appalachian State has a size/speed advantage to limit the Panthers offense. Grab Appalachian State to cruise Saturday.

The Dallas Cowboys hit a team low point losing to the Tennessee Titans off their bye week. A defense that had been strong most of the year failed to get off the field and the offense continued its woes. They’ll face an Eagles team that for the third time this season will have extra days of preparation (2 Thursday games/Bye Week). That’s a factor into this spread as well as the Cowboys abysmal 0-4 record. Grab the Cowboys.

The Packers did not get any scheduling benefits with their criss cross consecutive games against the Patriots and Rams. They’ll face a Dolphins team that has a bit of confidence at 5-4 with a sound home performance win over the Jets. This is where the early season high lines of the Packers finally sways to their advantage. Even off their high mileage consecutive road games expect the Packers defense to hunker down and limit a Dolphins offense that’s struggled on the road. Grab Green Bay. 

After a stretch that featured three of four home games the Oregon State Beavers now venture on the road to take on Stanford. Thus far on the year Oregon State’s Pac-12 losses have all been by high-teens or higher. With a Stanford team looking for confidence one would expect this to be a boosting ATS performance. Instead the Cardinals issues are prevalent against any Pac-12 opponent. Look for Oregon State to take advantage in regards to a high number. 

In a span of a week the Utah Utes went from a potential Pac-12 threat to back in the pack with everyone. The defensive schemes of Arizona State gave Utah huge problems as well as a broken collarbone injury to Nick Huntley. Undoubtedly the task will be tough for Utah starting a backup quarterback. Yet Ducks quarterback Justin Herbert has not been the same since a home win against Washington. Grab the home short favorite value on the Utes.

For the first time the Sun Belt conference will host a conference championship this season. That’s a factor to consider in Saturday’s Troy vs Georgia Southern matchup. Over the years Troy has been one of the prominent Sun Belt teams along with Appalachian State, yet Georgia Southern has a chip on their shoulder after last week’s loss. Look for the Eagles to regroup on a number that likely would have been in their favor if they were still undefeated in conference.

A profiled team the last month for myself has been North Carolina. They’ve been a strange team for oddsmakers to figure out. On paper their talent does not match their record of 1-7. It’s been an under lying factor as they have not lost by more than ten points in four straight weeks. This is the week that ATS value is finally on their side as the Duke Blue Devils return home off of three of four road games. Grab the value on North Carolina.

Sometimes towards the tail end of a season you can get reverse value in key matchups. That’s the case with TCU against West Virginia. Off of West Virginia’s thrilling victory over Texas they have their sights on something special. Opposite TCU has struggled mightily at just 4-5 as Michael Collins has taken over at quarterback for injured quarterback Shawn Robinson. Their ugly one point win over Kansas State to end a three-game losing streak did not showcase any positives. Yet look for TCU to hang around as West Virginia comes back down to Earth.

Seeing teams make a big push in the polls late in the year does not happen. For the Syracuse Orangemen they’ve had quite a reversal after a near third straight loss at home against UNC. That game sparked them and they now have regained momentum offensively to match an under rated defense. Over the years they’ve had their woes against Louisville and the Cardinal have not shied away from running up scores. Victories in 2017 of 56-10, 2016 in 62-28, and 2015 41-17. Look for the Orange to give the Cardinal a dose of their own medicine as a heavy upper class Orange squad delivers ATS. 

Stand out successive wins have been the staple for the Ohio Bobcats. They’ve won three straight games by an average of 53 points. Defensively they’ve matched their potent offense by giving up fourteen points in each of those contests. They’ll face a Miami-Ohio team that’s been subpar offensively all season. Yet they’ve also had a road heavy schedule playing five of their last seven away. Look for Miami-Ohio to find balance defensively to keep them in this game. Grab Miami-Ohio. 

The clear front runner in the MAC has been Buffalo. At 8-1 they’ve shown versatility each and every week. This started with a runaway victory as six point road favorites against Rutgers. They’ve also shown an uncanny ability to surpass the number ATS. Tonight should be another instance as the drop down in line value is centered on Kent States recent string of close losses. Grab Buffalo 

The Dallas Cowboys showed enough before their bye week to believe they’re a team turning the corner. An unfortunate loss to Washington happens in inner divisional play. As poor as the Titans have been offensively this season one can expect it to be difficult to score against the Dallas defense. Yet this Titans team is also under rated defensively and should be able to gut out a tough road performance. Grab the underdog Titans. 

There are certain teams that have a look mid-season that may be their peak form. The New Orleans Saints are at that point. Defensively they’ve sharped up from last year’s issues against the Rams and their playoff exit against the Vikings. The undefeated Rams will be able to throw different defensive looks to keep the Saints offense at bay. Yet it’s the defensive improvements that give the Saints the edge. Grab the Saints to give the Rams their first loss of the season. 

Nothing has been pretty with the Denver Broncos offensively this season aside from Philip Lindsay. At this juncture don’t be surprised to see Denver rotate their offensive mindset to what was working in the second half against the Chiefs. More runs versus risky throws from quarterback Case Keenum. The Texans five straight wins coupled with extra rest from a Thursday victory pose as value for the home Broncos. Grab Denver. 

Sometimes teams can get a dose of their own medicine in a quick scenario. The Seahawks took advantage of their bye week to script out a great game plan offensively and defensively against the Lions. Now they’ll face a Chargers team that has ample time post bye week and has an under rated element as they’ve been masked by the Chiefs start. LA’s balance offensively and defensively is not mind blowing but they’ve found a way to thrive with Rivers controlling his turnovers. Grab the Chargers as oddsmakers placed high value on the Seahawks home strength that has featured just a two-point loss to the Rams. 

The Minnesota Vikings are a team that are showing a bit of weakness signs. At this time last year they were going upward with Case Keenum under center. One would expect the same in the signing of veteran Kirk Cousins but that has not been the case. Although the Lions performed woefully post against the Seahawks one has to give the Seahawks credit for a post bye week game plan. Grab the value here on the Lions.

Certain teams have a lull ATS yearly hangover to the public and sharps. That team is the Atlanta Falcons. A near Super Bowl champ two years ago to a divisional round exit last year. With many of the same pieces on both sides of the ball things just have not been the same. Even coming off a bye week the value remains on the Redskins. This is a team that has found a way to win games late and is under valued at home. Grab the Redskins.

During a short week the Dolphins defense suffered mightily against the Texans potent offense. That should change this week against a Jets offense that did very little in a road spot last week against the Bears. Marking his fourth consecutive start for the Fish will be Brock Osweiler whom has looked comfortable under center at home. Miami’s early season road win at the Jets coupled with the Jets plethora of injuries poses as value on the Dolphins. Yet look for the Jets to shake off last week’s rust and attack a Miami defense that appears to be worsening as the season stretches on.

Week after week people have been betting against Washington State as the school reaches new heights ATS and in the polls never seen. Last week’s win over the Stanford Cardinal is the type of soaring victory bettors were waiting for. That is a climax season building win that has produced a double-digit line this week against California. Although the Bears have not been consistent offensively they’ve overcome their own adversity from a poor October stretch. Grab the value here on the Bears. 

Frustrations boil over on the field in competitive sports. Tulsa has been a competitive 1-7 team that just has not been able to clear the hurdle late in games. That was evident in a poor series of sequences last week against Tulane that cost them. Yet this week they’ll take on a UConn team that hung around against USF and had a chance to win against UMass last week. That’s a value indicator against them as Tulsa will have fun running up the score as they seek their first American conference win of the season.

Each and every week Missouri has been one of the public/sharps circled teams that continues to fail ATS. This slide has been since their narrow victory non ATS cover in non-conference play against Purdue. An 0-4 SEC conference record has finally circled the wagons in terms of ATS value on their side. Florida is coming off a bad loss to Georgia that is a confidence shaker. Look for the Tigers to capitalize on the double-angle of Florida getting back in the win column and their 0-4 SEC record. 

Tulane has been a puzzling team to figure out. One thing we know is that they step up in big profiled games. This is an tv network game against a South Florida team that likely feels a bit slighted not being ranked off a loss against Houston. Lets face it the storm heading USF’s way was seen for weeks with sloppy play. Tulane may be 3-5 but they’re a competitive team that knows how to stay in games. Grab the line value on Tulane South Florida aiming to get back in the win column. 

The battle of the two teams with a combined 1-16 record takes place in Conference USA Saturday between UTEP and Rice. UTEP had close outcomes against Louisiana Tech and North Texas before last week’s poor home performance against UAB. That’s created value against a Rice team that just can not hold up defensively. Grab the value on the road UTEP Miners. 

Traction on devalued lines is key in any betting sport. Georgia Tech’s buy down is easy to see as they start a true freshman at quarterback for a second consecutive game. North Carolina on the other hand has played in games ATS in road environments against Syracuse and Virginia. Yet this is where the difference of style of play becomes a problem for the Tar Heels. Look for Georgia Tech’s explosive rushing attack to throw off any chance of rhythm for the Tar Heels offense.

Michigan State and Maryland both are seeking to become bowl eligible Saturday. Two of the last the last three weeks Michigan State has caught the eyes of the betting world with wins over Purdue/Penn State. Yet Saturday is a let down spot opportunity as Maryland side steps distractions around the school to become bowl eligible. Grab the Terrapins. 

Two teams at 5-3 in the SEC battle it out Saturday as Texas A&M travels to Auburn. With Auburn coming off a bye week oddsmakers calculated this spread originally at six. Yet Auburn’s not shown an ability to be trustworthy ATS which caused a two point swing. That’s too much buy down in an SEC matchup that has an A&M team showing signs of wearing down. Grab Auburn.

Two programs in the Pac-12 that are trending downward are the Colorado Buffaloes and Arizona Wildcats. Three straight losses by the Buffaloes have put them in a tough spot on the road Friday in Arizona. Furthermore, keep in mind that Khalil Tate’s collegiate break through began against Colorado in last year’s 45-42 victory. Look for Tate to be as comfortable as he was in that matchup and UofA’s offense to continue trending upward. 

Key line movement has occurred based on the San Francisco 49ers starting a third string quarterback with zero experience. Simplified analysis presents this as value on the Raiders as this game is of course being played in the Bay Area. Yet I believe this gives Kyle Shanahan a chance to open up his offense a bit more against a porous Raiders defense. Without film on Mullins this poses as an advantage to the 49ers on a buy down spread. Grab the 49ers. 

Undoubtedly the value decline on the Arizona Cardinals is near an all time low. Yet it’s not as far down as it can go. Expected improvement is clear this week as they’ve stepped away from offensive coordinator Mike McCoy and have given the job to Byron Leftwich. They’re also facing a 49ers team that lost outright as four point favorites to Arizona earlier in the season. As banged up as the 49ers are, this should be a sloppy affair that is winnable for the 49ers late. Grab San Francisco.

The Bears offense at home this year has been a juggernaut. Explosive points against the Seahawks, Buccaneers, and last week against the Patriots. The Jets are not only banged up at wide receiver but they’re also hurting at the running back position. That’s going to put a high burden on the Jets rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold in a tough road environment. After faltering at home against the Vikings this seems like a poor spot for the Jets. Yet the Bears are beginning to have issues with turnovers and sloppy defense. Those aren’t issues that evaporate in one week. Look for the Jets to capitalize on improper market line movement. 

Over the years NC State has had Syracuse’s numbers winning outright in four straight. Quarterback Ryan Finley is the accurate deep ball quarterback that has exposed Syracuse’s aggressive defense year over year. Yet I believe we’re at the final stop of Syracuse’s ATS value after last week’s woeful performance against North Carolina. Sometimes a sloppy win over a poor team is an eye-opener. Look for Syracuse to finally hurdle their woes against NC State. 

Certain teams fall just short and that’s been the case of Tulsa. On the year they’ve faltered to a 1-6 record. Their first five losses were close in margin until last week’s 23-0 loss to Arkansas. Now they’ll face a Green Wave team that market wise is still generating the residual affects of an outright win over Memphis on national television. Grab Tulsa to finally end their regular season slide. 

Virginia is one of those teams with a winning record that leads you to believe a questionable conundrum ATS. Yes they’re winning but they’ve done so against the weaker ACC teams. They’re also not scoring a ton of points which is why this weeks line against North Carolina is smaller than one would expect. The Tar Heels nearly defeated Syracuse and I believe a sound Virginia team will be prepared to expose the poor Tar Heels defense. Expect gash plays that lead to touchdowns early and often. 

Sometimes value can be had ATS simply by waiting for further money to pound the wrong team. That’s the case in today’s ACC showdown between the well rested Hurricanes and BC. Switching starters at quarterback to Rosier for the Hurricanes gives them a boost ATS and for people that remember the hurricanes strong run of 2017. Yet look for Boston College to cover on the improper line movement.

Drop down line value exists in Tuesday’s lone college football action between Troy and South Alabama. South Alabama has not been a functional team in terms of wins and losses this year at 2-5. Meanwhile Troy has suffered a setback with quarterback Kaleb Barker out for the season. Fill in sophomore quarterback in Sawyer Smith struggled as they lost to Liberty in their last game. Yet look for a much more focused Troy team that should use their prime advantages offensively and defensively to run away from South Alabama. 

There are few teams at 2-4 that have been discounted as poorly as the Falcons have. On the year they’ve shown nothing trustworthy to back them, yet neither have the struggling Giants. Atlanta’s injuries at tailback and at kicker drove this line down as well as the Giants coming off a Thursday game. With no changes being made with Eli Manning nothing is going to change on the field. Expect the Falcons to show some of their prior Super Bowl pedigree as they take advantage of the Giants.

The Colts thus far this season have not been a trustworthy team ATS. From opening week melting down against Cincinnati to last week’s road debacle against the Jets. Yet this week will mark Andrew Luck’s seventh start since returning from injury. The offense has looked much improved and he should tone down his turnovers this week against Buffalo. Veteran quarterbacks getting starts sometimes are too over valued and that is the case here with Derek Anderson. Grab the Colts

Cleveland travels on the road after a putrid home performance against the Chargers. Rebounding back from such a brutal loss is tough for a team down weapons at the wide receiver position and also one relying on a rookie quarterback. Adding fuel to the fire was the Browns recent trade of top back Carlos Hyde. Now another rookie steps into the fold in tailback Nick Chubb. That’s value for a Browns team that faces a Bucs team that always leaves the door open with self driven miscues. Grab the Browns.

The Bears are a team that arguably are one of the most improved teams from last season to this year. That makes it very hard to dictate their proper line value. Case in point a poor road line against both the Dolphins and Cardinals haunted bettors. At home though they’re a higher grade team that bookmakers have failed to catch up on. On their resume is a stout victory over the Seahawks and a blowout win over the Bucs. With the Patriots rolling this forced the hand on a bad line. Grab the Bears to keep within the number.

A big game will take place in Conference USA Saturday, as UAB hosts North Texas. On the year already North Texas has passed two major tests with blowout wins over SEC Arkansas and also SMU. That’s created value on a UAB team that people are over looking. Most teams show a level of unfocused leading up to a big game. That wasn’t the case last week as UAB crushed Rice in not allowing a single point. Grab UAB to carry that momentum over on their home field.

For the third time this season Oregon is featured in a small line matchup against a Pac-12 school. Coming off an outright home victory over Washington they have a chance to be the one-loss Pac-12 school to make some noise. Yet parity in the Pac-12 has always been a factor and historically Washington State has given the Ducks fits. Look for Mike Leach to have a proper game plan to take advantage of the Ducks speed. Grab the Cougars.

There is not a team in college football that has experienced the type of slide the Cal Bears have. They went from a viable ranked team to losing ATS and straight up against Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA. To lose the way they did against the Bruins a week ago shows a team that’s lost itself quite a bit. They’ll have a chance to wake up against an Oregon State team that still has know team identity. It may take until the fourth quarter but look for the Bears to show a small reason why they were formerly ranked.

Just three weeks ago Syracuse was a quarter away from being 5-0 and knocking off Clemson. They let that win get away and it carried over to a blown loss to Pittsburgh the following week. Post bye week one would think Syracuse has put aside the emotional let down losses. Yet in college sports one main turn in a season creates ATS momentum. Facing a 1-4 North Carolina team the value remains against the Cuse’. Grab UNC.

Several key factors make the Broncos a solid Thursday play. For one they’ve been horrid on the road this year at 0-2. Furthermore in three consecutive weeks they’ve been ripped apart on the ground game as the Chiefs, Jets, and Rams have ran for near or over 200 yards each game. Yet look for Denver to be in better shape here as Arizona tries to protect their rookie quarterback in Josh Rosen. That should allow the defense to be more aggressive and give their team an added edge. Grab Denver.