Baltimore +3

            Even though Baltimore will be without Joe Flacco the remainder of the season I'm not going to overshadow that for the prime issues surrounding Cleveland. It's never good when you bounce back and forth with quarterbacks because of injuries and off the field issues. Lets not forget the Browns have been in this same position last year with Hoyer/Manziel and the year prior with Weeden/Hoyer. It has to effect a team, especially a defense that's been poor all year. Baltimore may have a lot of losses but they've battled in every game. We'll grab the Ravens Monday.

Seattle Seahawks -3.5

            Value has finally shifted enough for me to back the Seahawks Sunday. Pittsburgh may be coming off a bye but that's an overrated alleged handicapping advantage. At this point of the season you can find prime value by forecasting playoff teams. This is a great spot for Seattle as they face the Vikings the following week. After weeks of inconsistency offensively and defensively both sides of the football are starting to ascend on the field. That goes a long way for a team that has lost key games by slim margins. Home field and improved play has me on the Seahawks side Sunday.

Houston Texans -3

            The firing of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is not going to turn around anything. Personnel is still horrid for the Saints defense and throughout Drew Brees career he has struggled against physical defensive lines. The Texans bring that too the table which will key Houston. Brian Hoyer has been an underrated starter against mediocre teams. A few seasons ago he had the Browns rolling before a season ending knee injury and did the same last year before facing stiffer competition. The Saints are a below average team that will not have answers for the Texans defensive front. Grab the Texans.

Notre Dame plus 4

Early post before line movement---Subscribers analysis will be added when other plays are finalized.

Florida +2.5

            If Florida had not laid an egg last week against Florida Atlantic this game likely would be Florida -1. I'll side with value here as even though Sean MacGuire is starter he is doing it in a different capacity. No longer has Coach Jimbo Fisher said it's something he'll evaluate. Now with the permanent job I believe MacGuire may handle the pressure a bit differently. Florida will get enough done on offense to cover the 2.5.

Idaho -3

            We will go to the Sun Belt yet again as Idaho takes on Texas State. Texas State has been a peculiar team because they have a solid quarterback in Jones as well as senior running back Robert Lowe. But they're just not the same potent combination that was witnessed a season ago. Scoring the football has been difficult and I believe that'll bode to the home favorite in Idaho. Grab Idaho -3.

Baylor -1

            Baylor may have lost high hopes of a BCS playoff just two weeks ago but that doesn't take away their talent advantage over TCU. TCU played a spirited game last week without Boykin but even with him back you have to wonder how they're going to keep up with the potent Baylor Bears. We'll back the Bears here today to make things interesting if Oklahoma loses Saturday.

Buffalo +7.5

            The undefeated Patriots nearly lost a week ago and are having to adjust without two key players. Julian Edelman is out for several weeks and Dion Lewis out for the year. Tom Brady does not have the safety valve out of the backfield he has had in recent years with Woodhead, Shane Vereen, and Lewis this season. I believe that'll cause problems and allow Buffalo to apply more pressure than they did in week two. Remember, in week two the point spread shifted from -2 on the Patriots side to the Bills favored by a point before kickoff. I'm not falling for an 8.5 point swing with the Bills improving and Patriots hurting with injuries. Play the Bills

Green Bay +1

            I've commented a few times this season that the Packers are notorious for 2-3 game in-season lulls. It's happened time and time again for Aaron Rodgers and Mike Mccarthy. Now that the bandwagon has shifted against them I believe they'll snap out of it like they have in years past. Minnesota has piled up the wins but they're doing so with a meager point per game average offensively. Rodgers will get things back and order for the Packers Sunday

Indianapolis +5.5

            The focus for Indianapolis is how they're going to perform with Andrew Luck out of the lineup. It should be but my focus on this play will be the opposing starting quarterback in Matt Ryan. Ryan's play has been horrific over the last four to five games, and I don't see him snapping out of it anytime soon. Atlanta's defense just is not strong enough to support an offense struggling. The difference with Matt Hasselbeck in the lineup over Luck is the turnover battle. The Colts will win that battle and get the cover Sunday.

Play Miami +1

            Tony Romo is going to come back tomorrow and start the Cowboys playoffs surge. Not exactly. Although the Cowboys do welcome Romo back it's going to be tough on the veteran quarterback to upstart a team that has lost severe confidence on both sides of the football. The team Romo is stepping into the huddle with is not remotely the team it was in week two or last year when Romo came back after missing the Cardinals game. Miami has worked too hard on offense and defense under Dan Campbell to lose to an unconfident Cowboys team at home. This is not last season and a miracle to the Cowboys season is not going to happen.

(371) Michigan State vs (372) Ohio State

            Can Michigan State put a thorn to the Buckeyes on Saturday? This of course could have been a classic matchup of undefeated teams if it were not for the Spartans meltdown against the Wolverines. I ask you, what would the point spread be if that play did not happen to give the Wolverines the win over the Spartans? Definitely not near two touchdowns. Though the Spartans have not looked the part of a highly ranked team neither have the Buckeyes. Expect the Spartans to battle in this game as if they could take that last play back against the Wolverines. Grab Michigan State plus the 14.

Play Michigan State plus 14

UConn plus 10

            Last week I  avoided posting Oregon as a moneyline play against Stanford. This week I'll recommend a 50/50 wager on UConn ML and with the points +10. There's a reason why the undefeated Cougars continue to get zero respect from the polls and BCS chances. They have a run and gun look that has succeeded in the American conference but they don't pass the eye test. The Huskies have made strides and this is the type of game that can get them to a bowl and carry momentum into next season. Grab the Huskies

Georgia State -2.5

            Last week I bypassed the Sun Belt but we'll head back into it this week as South Alabama travels to Georgia State. South Alabama has been a hot potato team that is off their first winning streak of the season. Still, their defense is a major concern of mine heading on the road against a Georgia State team that has underachieved this season. Expect Georgia State to capitalize at home and take advantage of a South Alabama team that is subpar.

Purdue

            From time to time value just sticks out. Iowa's undefeated season has rose their spread value sky high. But over their last three games their only cover was by a half point over Indiana. High lines against the Gophers and Maryland did not come close to inflated spreads. As this line continues to climb from 20 to now 23 I have to step in and root for 2-8 Purdue, who did play a competitive game against a similar style team in Michigan State.

Play Vikings +3

Redskins Pick

            The Saints have been a puzzling team over the last month. They've been able to win games against the Giants, Colts, and Falcons thanks to turnovers and rather poor play from opposing teams. Washington has the perception as one of the worst teams in football but have been tough at home. They've won three of their four games and played well enough to defeat Miami in week one. We'll back the Redskins to dictate the style of play Sunday and grab the win over the Saints.

Baylor -2

Baylor faces the toughest part of their season starting with a Saturday matchup against Oklahoma. Losing Seth Russell will surely have an impact on the Bears but they feel they've improved enough defensively to match their potent offense. Oklahoma will be a true test but I'll side with the Bears to pull out the win and cover Saturday.

Play Oregon +10

Play Temple +3

            South Florida has made stellar improvements to turn around a football program that looked in deep trouble the last four seasons. Still, I believe this is a good spot to back a veteran Temple team. Three point road favorites usually pushes a mind set of trap. Instead here I love the value. Back the Owls who should keep winning off of having a turnover advantage.

Play NC State plus 10

Play Bills +3

Chicago Bears

            I rarely play any games ATS for or against the Chargers. But I like the prime time setup for Monday’s game. Both the Bears and Chargers have lost countless games in dramatic fashion. While the praise has been more centered on quarterback Philip Rivers, people are ignoring the quiet production of Jay Cutler. He is making less mistakes by playing more within the offense. The loss of Matt Forte does hurt but Cutler will be able to utilize Alshon Jeffrey and Bennett against a pour Chargers defense. Grab the Bears Monday.

Play Bears plus 4

Dallas Cowboys

Has Chip Kelly corrected his team’s inefficiencies? No. Dallas may have lost five games in a row but with a win Sunday they’ll be right back in the thick of the NFC East. There last win was over the Eagles in which they controlled the time of possession 2 to 1 with over forty minutes on their side. As many issues as the Cowboys have they have a quiet confidence against the Eagles. Grab Dallas in a favorable position of plus 3.

Play Cowboys plus 3

San Francisco 49ers +7.5

In any profession a shakeup amongst a team that’s lagged gets reenergized with new pieces. Kaepernick’s poor stretch over the last three weeks produced dismal results. Add to that the 49ers traded Vernon Davis. A season that has little hope left for it will turn to quarterback Blaine Gabbert. I expect the 49ers to play adequately against the Falcons with new life. It likely won’t last beyond this week but this a great opportunity to buy the difference from 5.5 to 7.5. Is a two point spread increase worthy for players such as Kaep and Davis? Not in my opinion. Grab the points.

Giants -2.5

            The string of success by Tampa Bay is enough to lure people on them this weekend against the Giants. Not me. Jameis Winston is still a rookie and has benefitted from a great run game and poor opposing offensive execution. Atlanta practically gifted the Bucs the win last week thanks to Matt Ryan’s awful play. New York may be on a bit of a slide themselves but they’re as potent as they come offensively. Odell Beckham and company should have a big day against the Buccaneers.  Expect Winston to look a bit more like a rookie Sunday.

UL Monroe +10

            For the second consecutive week we’ll be on UL Monroe as double digit underdogs. Troy is catching far too much love after a blowout win on the road as 3 point favorites over New Mexico State and taking Appalachian State to three overtime’s as three touchdown underdogs last week. Monroe is a stubborn team that hangs in games. Troy will come back down to Earth from their impactful two weeks. Grab Monroe.

Cincinnati +9.5

            All great college offenses meet a heads on challenge once or twice a season. You just can’t win every week in college football in landslide fashion with offense. Cincinnati is a confident team that’s capable of sustaining matching offense of the Cougars for four quarters. Cougars sophomore quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is still adapting and may not be ready for a closer than anticipated game. That’ll factor in to the spread as this should be closer to 5.5-6 points. Grab the Bearcats.

Louisiana Lafayette -2

            We were on the opposite side of the Rajun Cajuns last week for a cover. Saturday I look for them to play a strong game against Georgia State. In consecutive weeks they’ve found themselves in a hole because of poor first half play. That can be corrected and I expect Lafayette to finally play a complete game and grab the win on the road. Play Lafayette.

Colorado +16.5

            Full season college subscribers have noticed my love for the Buffaloes. They’ve been on my board countless times this season and there’s a main reason why. Colorado has been the doormat of the Pac-12 since entering and with how strong the Pac-12 is this season oddsmakers are overlooking the Buffaloes. Each week there is value and it’s to be had again at home against Stanford. Note the odd start time of 10AM PT for this Pac-12 matchup. Shaky wins by a top ten team don’t prosper the following week. Usually it’ll take a half to get things refigured out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Colorado have a small lead here at half and hang on to cover a sizeable spread in the second. Grab Colorado.

Indianapolis +7.5

The drastic jump of oddsmakers hike in value on the Panthers is alarming. Yes they’ve won ten straight but they have not been a team that necessarily blows teams out. I think the value here is on the Colts. For as bad as they’ve played the last two weeks they still have only lost by a touchdown or less. Don’t fall for the back to back prime time lure on the Panthers. Grab the Colts.

Denver plus 3

Shop around to find the plus 3’s out there, or if you have to buy the hook. This should be everything it’s planned to be and more. Green Bay has the best quarterback in the league and a defense that has shown tremendous growth. The headliner that has drawn Green Bay as a road favorite is the poor play of Peyton Manning. Hey folks, get over it. Manning is who is he at this stage in his career and his team has adjusted. Frankly it’s shocking to me that people still have not seen the odd value shift from the Broncos a season ago to now. Last year they were favored by near double digits every game with a horrid defense and failed to cover repeatedly. This season they’ve been low favorites the majority of games with a top tier defense and keep covering the number. I’ll back them at home as the same recipe of strong defense and timely offense will key the win for the Broncos.

Play San Francisco plus 8

Todd Gurley has been as impressive of a player over the last month of the NFL season. But concern has to be high with the play of Nick Foles. Foles has not had a solid outing since the Rams win over the Cardinals. There are strong concerns with San Francisco and how they’ll operate with Carlos Hyde out of the lineup. Hyde has been playing through an injury anyways which makes him being out less of an issue. Some quarterbacks have a quiet confidence against certain opponents and Colin Kaepernick is one against the Rams. He has had some of his best performances against the Rams and I expect him to showcase that confidence Sunday. Buy the 49ers on an inflated line.

Rich Rod and the Arizona Wildcats have been as potent of an offense as there is in the Pac-12. The problem has been the defenses vulnerability to stop anything. Heading up to Washington they need to show the veteran capabilities this team possesses. Washington has a young defense that has struggled against the run and will have Browning returning from injury at quarterback. This is the type of game where Arizona’s offense should finally be able to outpace their poor defense. Grab the Wildcats.

Play Arizona +4.5

Saturday night the Washington State Cougars will look to try and knock off the surging Stanford Cardinal in the Pac-12. The Cougars have just one loss in conference and could tie the Cardinal with a win Saturday. Luke Falk has been dominant at quarterback with just four interceptions and over twenty touchdowns. On the road this should be a true tough test for the Cardinal. But they’re the only team in college football I see getting better as the season goes on. They’ll have too much balance that will over power the Cougars. Grab Stanford.

Play Stanford -10.5

The undefeated Temple Owls will do all they can Saturday to keep their undefeated record intact. To do so they’ll have to play mistake free football and execute at their highest level in all phases of special teams, defense, and offense. For how great Notre Dame has been this season they’ve been a turnover prone team. That will be the difference in landing our cover Saturday as Temple will play like a true top twenty five team.

Play Temple + 11

As potent as Louisiana Lafayette are on offense they are just as deadly and porous on defense. Louisiana Monroe has struggled as they transition with a true freshman quarterback in Garrett Smith. This should be the type of game he can settle in as he is a dual threat quarterback. Even though Monroe is 1-6 overall they’ve fought in several games including against Tulsa and Alabama. We’ll grab them plus 11.5 Saturday.

Play UL Monroe +11.5

Neither of these teams light it up on offense. Virginia Tech may look back at this season and say what if. They’ve lost several close games that were winnable and now likely will not be in position to make a bowl game. But I believe they’re further ahead in development than Boston College. The Hokies will be able to shut down Boston College’s simplistic offense and get the win and cover Saturday morning.

Play Virginia Tech -2.5

Play Wake Forest +12

            In the ACC Friday night the Louisville Cardinal will look to finally play mistake free football against Wake Forest. This is a curious line even against a rusty young Wake Forest team. I just have not seen enough from the Cardinal offensively or discipline wise to back them as double digit favorites. Wake Forest will stay in this game and cover the number.

Play East Carolina -6

UConn is definitely a program moving upward after years of poor football play. They’ve stayed in a few games this season against teams such as Missouri, BYU, and South Florida. I’m not sold on them finishing the season out strong. They have a look of a young team that is growing but will falter as the season ends. East Carolina should be able to take prime advantage of UConn even on the road. Grab East Carolina

Play Oregon +2.5

A Pac-12 battle takes place Thursday night in Tempe, Arizona between Arizona State and the Oregon Ducks. These two have not squared off since 2012's Thursday matchup in which the Ducks blew out Arizona State. This is a chance for both teams to get back on the right path and control their destiny for an at-large bowl game. I like the versatility Adams Jr. brings to the Ducks offense. He'll be very tough for the Devils to adjust too defensively, especially with the all out blitzes Todd Graham loves to bring. It's hard to believe the Ducks are in an underdog role for the second consecutive game but I'll grab them once again. Play Oregon plus 2.5

            Baltimore Ravens plus 8.5

                Baltimore has had issues galore to for the first half of the NFL season. But to say they should be 8.5 point underdogs is a bit of a stretch. Arizona has stumbled in two of their last three games and seem to be having issues on both sides of the football. All of Baltimore's  losses have been close affairs  and winnable games in the fourth quarter. As stated in a prior column, Arizona's strong home record under Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians at 12-3 is impressive. Before this season the Cardinals were only 4.5 point favorites or higher just once during that span. Oddsmaker's have adjusted to the public and sharp money that has been coming in on Arizona this season. Grab Baltimore to play another competitive game win or lose and stay within the number.

Philadelphia Eagles +3

                        Earlier in the week my mindset was to take the streaking Carolina Panthers. But upon further review I’ll grab the points with the Philadelphia Eagles. Sometimes matchups just don’t bode well for an opponent and I believe that to be the case for Carolina here. Tempo has been dictated by the Panthers in the majority of games this season especially in second halves. Second halves are where the Eagles thrive on Chip Kelly’s adjustments. The Eagles have momentum and confidence with the NFC East division in their hands after a poor start. Look for the Eagles to play a great brand of football and play similar to last year’s performance against the Panthers.

            Oakland Raiders +4

            Philip Rivers has done a fantastic job at this stage in his career at keeping the Chargers afloat. But sooner or later it has to take its toll on the veteran. He has an inefficient run game and the Chargers defense is extremely vulnerable. Oakland can utilize a simplistic game plan with the run and passing attack to keep this game close. San Diego has difficulty pulling away from teams and that’ll leave a fourth quarter opportunity for the Raiders. Expect a kneel down cover or the Raiders to win this outright.

In the late Pac-12 matchups we’ll overlook Stanford vs  Washington for the Colorado vs Oregon State game. Both teams are on the bottom level of the Pac-12 but have ingredients in place to move upward. Colorado has the edge in leadership while Oregon State has an abundance of freshman learning on the go. All of the veterans on Colorado have endured an abysmal record in the Pac-12, with the majority being landslide losses to top level teams. Winning a conference game means the world to the upperclassmen and head coach of Colorado. It won’t be easy but we’ll look for the Buffaloes to grab the road win and cover the small line of plus 2.

Play Colorado +2

In this late evening Sun Belt conference matchup we’ll back the home team in Texas State against a reeling South Alabama team. South Alabama is coming off extended rest after losing to Arkansas State in a Tuesday matchup a week and a half ago. They’ve had poor play lately from the quarterback position. Texas State is a disciplined enough team at home to have the edge in the turnover battle. That’ll be the difference in the final result and land us a cover with Texas State.

Play Texas State -3

Play Michigan State -16.5

            Michigan State has been horrid ATS and is coming off of a freak win against Michigan. The win finally shook their ATS woes but also kept them in the hunt for a BCS championship. I think it will spark the Spartans against an Indiana team that has been playing above their capability. The Spartans style of play bodes well for an ATS cover here. A few big plays with their offense and a grind it out style that pours it on in the second half. Grab Michigan State

Clemson is one of those teams that yearly has had the possibility of representing in a BCS bowl. But  ACC conference play usually targets them for a critical loss. While the Miami Hurricane program is no where to the level it use to be, it is by no means a down program. They have talent and will be ready to battle Clemson in hopes of derailing their season. 7.5 is far too many points in my opinion. Look for the Hurricane to battle just as hard as they did against Florida State. Grab the 7.5.

Play Miami +7.5

It’s not often you see a road team as steep favorites. Yet that’s the case with Houston. Houston made the switch to quarterback Greg Ward Jr. in this exact matchup last season. John O’Korn has since transferred to Michigan, but the move has proved to be one of the top decisions any division one program has made. Ward’s averaging over 70% on pass completions and over 100 yards rushing in each game. Those believing that Central Florida will be able to respond in a big way better take a look at the poor play during their 0-7 start. A loss to FCS Furman and a mountain of points giving up to UConn and Tulane. Grab Houston.

Play Houston -21.5

10/20 05:00 PM  CF   (301) UL - LAFAYETTE VS (302) ARKANSAS STATE edit

Take: (301) UL - LAFAYETTE 

Reason: Play UL Lafayette plus 7.5 Tonight in the Sun Belt conference, Arkansas State will look to build upon last week's come from behind win against South Alabama. Freddie Knighton returning to the lineup was vital for an offense that struggled without him. Yet, defensively Arkansas State has been struggling. I'll side with the points here on a high number with Lafayette.

Giants +5

            The NY Giants travel to face their division rivals the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night football. The division has had its typical parity with the Giants leading the division by one game over Dallas, Philadelphia, and Washington. To see the Giants as a road dog here is quite surprising. They do have some injury concerns but their defense has been playing well and the Eagles just have not been consistent enough to back on this steep of a line. Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin together are 30-14-2 ATS in the month of October. They’ll grab another cover here Monday night.

Colts +9.5

            This spread in August was -3 on the Colts side against the Patriots. It opened at 7 and has shot up to as high as 11 in some markets. There comes a point in time in any market where saturation becomes too much. This is probably that highest moment of any game this NFL season. For the first time this season the Patriots are not receiving buyback on the opposing team, as was the case against the Steelers, Bills, Jaguars, and Cowboys. Boiling down those opponents they faced a backup quarterback in Brandon Weeden, a first year starter in Tyrod Taylor, a struggling second year quarterback in Blake Bortles, and did not cover week one against the Steelers.   The Colts will finally play a competitive game against the Patriots and cover this inflated number.

10/18 01:05 PM  NFL   (267) CAROLINA PANTHERS VS (268) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS edit

Take: (267) CAROLINA PANTHERS 

Reason: Play Carolina plus 7.5 Carolina is coming off a bye week and travels to Seattle. This matchup has featured some solid close matchups over the years. This point spread is head scratching to me as the Panthers are undefeated and the Seahawks have yet to showcase proper balance on offense and defense. Ron Rivera has the Panthers playing at a higher confidence than he has his entire tenure there. With Newton's development as a leader I believe the Panthers will stay in this game. They've seen Russ Wilson enough times to be prepared for his improvisational plays. Grab the Panthers.

Play Buffalo plus 3.5

            The Bengals are undefeated thanks to superb play in fourth quarters against the Seahawks, Ravens, and Chargers. Sooner or later their way of waiting until the fourth quarter to pull off games is going to bite them. Even with the Bills quarterback situation uncertain I like the Bills home edge here. They’ve won in the past with backup quarterbacks in emergency spot starts with a lengthy list of quarterbacks. One of the reasons for that is their home field edge. The defense, which has been subpar for the past few weeks, should be ready to respond and the Bills will have LeSean Mccoy and possibly Sammy Watkins back. Grab the Bills plus 3.5.

10/17 07:30 PM  CF   (213) OREGON VS (214) WASHINGTON edit

Take: (213) OREGON 

Reason: Play Oregon +3 The perception is that the Oregon Ducks are finished. An overtime loss a week ago marked their third loss of the season and second in Pac-12 conference play. Meanwhile the Huskies just defeated USC as 17 point underdogs. But I think this matchup here is a solid one for the young Ducks. Washington doesn't run away from teams with a vanilla offense and will have a tough time on defense with Oregon's up tempo offense. Grab Oregon plus 3.

Colorado  +7.5

            Colorado is a team that was on the rise in bettors’ eyes just two weeks ago. Then they stumbled at home as 7.5 point dogs to Oregon and suffered another ATS loss last week to Arizona State. A game in which bettors moved the line by two full points to 16.5 to 17 before kickoff. This week though they have a much better matchup against the Arizona Wildcats. Arizona’s defense is one of the worst in the Pac-12 which should keep this game close. The Buffaloes always mark a game or two in Pac-12 play that they believe they can win, and this is one for a building football program. Grab the Buffaloes

FSU -7

            Everett Golson has had his woes against tough blitzing defenses throughout his career. Yet the burden at Florida State is not as high on his shoulders as it was at Notre Dame. The Seminoles an rush the football against the Cardinals aggressive defense and then open up the passing game. On offense Louisville turns the football over far too frequently to support them on the road against a potent team such as FSU. Grab FSU.

Tonight in Utah, BYU will look to get back on a winning track after stumbling in late September.  BYU’s defense has been worse as the season has stretched and the offense is still working out kinks with freshman quarterback Mangum. That is not a quality recipe to have against the potent offense of the Bearcats. They’ll be able to score against the Cougars and should get a solid cover for us Friday night.

10/15 07:30 PM  CF   (109) UCLA VS (110) STANFORD edit

Take: (110) STANFORD 

Reason: Play Stanford Tonight, we'll back the Pac-12 Stanford Cardinal against the Bruins. Stanford has owned this series as of late and are a team riding great momentum since their first loss against Northwestern. Look for the Cardinal to have the advantage on both sides of the football tonight. Grab Stanford.

10/11 05:30 PM  NFL   (473) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS (474) NEW YORK GIANTS edit

Take: (473) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 

Reason: Play San Francisco +7 It's rare to see a team go from a seven point underdog to a seven point favorite in one week. Yet that is the case for the NY Giants. As bad as the 49ers have played they have been the only team to limit Aaron Rodgers this season. New York has not shown me enough in finishing off games to back them as a touchdown favorite. Grab the touchdown with the 49ers.

10/11 01:25 PM  NFL   (469) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS (470) DALLAS COWBOYS edit

Take: (470) DALLAS COWBOYS 

Reason: Play Cowboys plus 10 Dallas is 2-2 and yet they're home underdogs of 10 points. Sure Brandon Weeden has not won a game yet as starter but he has put the Cowboys in position to win. A thirteen point lead was blown against the 4-0 Falcons and an overtime loss against the Saints. Dallas's defense will match up well against the Patriots----enough for me to back them with ten points.

10/11 01:05 PM  NFL   (467) ARIZONA CARDINALS VS (468) DETROIT LIONS edit

Take: (467) ARIZONA CARDINALS 

Reason: Play Arizona -2.5 The Detroit Lions have the prime time lure on their side. They were down by just two points to the Broncos with under eight minutes left and were a yard away from grabbing the lead late against the Seahawks. Now they face an Arizona Cardinals team they've lost to three seasons in a row. One in which Stafford threw three pick six interceptions and last year's in which they failed to score a touchdown. Ignore the prime time lure and grab the Cardinals to defeat the Lions for the fourth straight season.

10/11 10:00 AM  NFL   (451) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS (452) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS edit

Take: (451) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 

Reason: Play Jacksonville plus 3 This seems like a great spot to grab Tampa Bay as a slight favorite before they head into their bye week. Not so fast as the Buccaneers weaknesses will only grow this weekend against Jacksonville. With a 30th ranked defense and Winston coming off a four interception game expect the Jaguars to win this with clock management and TJ Yeldon. Yeldon will build off of his first 100-yard game and more blunders will surface from Winston. Grab the Jaguars.

10/11 10:00 AM  NFL   (465) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS (466) CINCINNATI BENGALS edit

Take: (465) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 

Reason: Play Seattle Seahawks The Seahawks moved to 2-2 and are coming off two games they were heavily favored. One a cover of 16.5 points against the Bears and last week on Monday against the Lions they didn't as 10.5 point favorites. The Bengals are 4-0 but are winning with their offense not defense. The defense has had a tough time against the Chiefs, Ravens, and Chargers and allowed far too many points and yardage. I'll back Seattle as a dog to put up their best effort of the season thus far.

10/10 07:00 PM  CF   (379) CALIFORNIA VS (380) UTAH edit

Take: (379) CALIFORNIA 

Reason: Play California plus 7.5 Utah is a quality team but I have my doubts about them being in the top five. Similar to Ole Miss defeating Alabama and then losing to Florida a week ago, the same may happen with Utah after beating Oregon. The Pac-12 is too balanced. California's offense will be the first to really test a Utah defense that is solid but not as great as years past. We'll then see if Travis Wilson can handle the burden of making tough decisions when not having a lead. An area he has struggled in throughout his career at Utah. We'll grab Cal in a generous spot of 7.5 points.

10/10 01:00 PM  CF   (349) TROY VS (350) MISSISSIPPI STATE edit

Take: (349) TROY 

Reason: Play Troy plus 30.5 SEC teams and teams in general have had a tough time covering huge point spreads this season. The theme throughout the main power conferences is parity. This parity has allowed for teams from smaller schools to stay in games against power schools. Troy will do the same as this shouldn't get over the low to mid 20's. Grab Troy plus 30.5

10/10 12:30 PM  CF   (403) WISCONSIN VS (404) NEBRASKA edit

Take: (403) WISCONSIN 

Reason: Play Wisconsin plus 1.5 It's peculiar to see the Badgers an underdog here. But they did just lose as a touchdown favorite at home to Iowa. They're 3-2 and in an awfully familiar spot as a season ago in which they started the season the same way. Last year they rolled off seven straight wins until losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten conference championship game. Nebraska may get an early lead here but Wisconsin will show their veteran grit and get the win Saturday at Nebraska.

10/09 04:00 PM  CF   (307) SO MISSISSIPPI VS (308) MARSHALL edit

Take: (308) MARSHALL 

Reason: Play Marshall -3 The line movement over the last day figures to side with Southern Miss. On the contrary I'll side with the Thundering Herd. Southern Miss has the lure of their spread offense but while it's been effective it has had it's down moments as well. They nearly lost a three touchdown lead against Texas State and were down three touchdowns to Nebraska. Marshall will be able to win this with the consistency of their offense and the home edge. Grab Marshall

Play Washington

Both the Trojans and Huskies are coming off bye weeks. Yet I expect the younger Huskies to be ready against a Trojans team that has hit their ceiling offensively. 17 points is far too many to side on the Trojans side. Grab the Huskies

10/05 05:30 PM  NFL   (277) DETROIT LIONS VS (278) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS edit

Take: (277) DETROIT LIONS 

Reason: Play Detroit plus 10.5 Though the Seahawks did cover a steep line last week, there still were plenty of red flags to take away from the game. Detroit may be 0-3 but they still have plenty of talent from last year's playoff team. After a primetime loss last Sunday against the Broncos, they'll be ready as a team to keep this within the number in another prime time spot. 10.5 is far too many points. Grab the Lions

10/04 05:30 PM  NFL   (275) DALLAS COWBOYS VS (276) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS edit

Take: (276) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 

Reason: Play Saints -3 Even with the status of Drew Brees uncertain I like the Saints at home. McCown showed enough last week to carry the offense if needed. Dallas has more unknown answers with an offense that has to open up with quarterback Brandon Weeden. I don't believe he can get the job done and the Saints offense should be able to move the football on the Dallas defense. At 0-3 the Saints have been down a point in the fourth quarter in two of those losses and four in the other. They'll find a way to close this one out in the fourth and get a win.

10/04 10:00 AM  NFL   (259) NEW YORK GIANTS VS (260) BUFFALO BILLS edit

Take: (260) BUFFALO BILLS 

Reason: Play Bills -5 Tyrod Taylor and the Bills are coming off a blowout win against Miami on the road and the come away from that game was that Joe Philbin needs to be fired. Never mind that the Bills have blossomed under Rex Ryan with a quarerback in Tyrod Taylor that is under valued ATS. He has shown to be accurate while also capable of scrambling for extra yards. The Giants have shown progression but the offense is still below average. The run game will remain halted against the Bills front seven and a subpar offensive line will place added pressure on Eli Manning. Grab the Bills to head to 3-1 with one of the stronger showings Sunday in the NFL.

10/04 10:00 AM  NFL   (265) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS (266) CINCINNATI BENGALS edit

Take: (266) CINCINNATI BENGALS 

Reason: Play Bengals -4 The Chiefs defense that has been solid over the years has had issues galore to start the 2015 season. Against Houston they blew a big lead late once Brian Hoyer was benched in favor of Ryan Mallet. Then the Peyton Manning debacle happened and of course last week against Aaron Rodgers. I don't see the defense adjusting against a Bengals team that is humming offensively. The run game is solid and Andy Dalton seems to being clearing the hurdle in becoming a veteran quarterback. Small line here that should be closer to six. Grab the Bengals.

Redskins plus 3

The daunting task of Sunday hails with a Washington Redskins franchise on the brink of another failure. They'll try and avoid a 1-3 start by defeating the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia avoided an 0-3 start a week ago against the Jets but did so yet again with poor play from quarterback Sam Bradford. Bradford threw for under 130 yards and has yet to shown the skills Chip Kelly needs from him. Washington is coming off extended rest and should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. Teams have shown an ability to respond well off of a Thursday night loss over the years. Grab Washington to stay in this game and get the field goal cover over their division rivals.

Play Arizona plus 12.5

At night in the Pac-12 we will look to grab Arizona as near two touchdown underdogs against Stanford. Arizona is coming off a horrible loss to UCLA at home but I see this spot as a nice matchup for Arizona. Stanford's defense has given up several points to start the season especially in first halfs. That does well for Arizona's spread offense. Grab the points here.

10/03 04:00 PM  CF   (207) COLORADO STATE VS (208) UTAH STATE edit

Take: (207) COLORADO STATE 

Reason: Play Colorado State plus 4 The change over both of these teams have faced has taken a little bit of luster out of this matchup. Both teams may be down talent wise but you can count on a good matchup when they meet. Utah State's offense just isn't where it needs to be to back as a favorite even at home. Grab Colorado State in a spot where I believe they should be the slight favorite.

Play Florida plus 7

Ole Miss surged to the top with a win over Alabama. Watching that game anyone would have seen the continuous mental lapses by Alabama. To start the game they used an unproven quarterback that wasn't ready for the big stage, and Alabama's defense kept giving up big play after big play. At home Florida will pose a challenge against Ole Miss. Backing Ole Miss as a full touchdown favorite will bite you in the tail. Grab the points with Florida.

Play Eastern Michigan +45

LSU potent run game should be their bread and butter against an Eastern Michigan team vulnerable against the run. Still a steep line of 45 points is high enough to back the MAC Eastern Michigan. Expect this line to toy around the high 30's and low 40's by the third quarter. But it won't be enough to get the cover on LSU's side. Grab Eastern Michigan plus 45.

10/03 12:30 PM  CF   (159) ALABAMA VS (160) GEORGIA edit

Take: (160) GEORGIA 

Reason: Play Georgia -1 The Georgia Bulldogs get to attempt to be the second SEC team to knock off Alabama and it just turned October. The issues at quarterback at Alabama have plagued them in years past but this year is different. Coker has been unable to lift the team with big plays and the defense just isn't holding like it use to. Georgia has just as much fire power on offense as Ole Miss and will knock Bama down for their second overall loss of the season.

10/02 04:00 PM  CF   (105) MEMPHIS VS (106) SOUTH FLORIDA edit

Take: (106) SOUTH FLORIDA 

Reason: Play South Florida plus 7.5 This line has come down steadily since opening at 12 earlier in the week. I still see value on South Florida as touchdown underdogs at home against Memphis. The Bulls stay prepared defensively on a week to week basis and have shown signs of progression by staying in a game against Florida State earlier this season. Memphis offense is talented but with their defense a liability you have to grab the points here

09/27 05:30 PM  NFL   (487) DENVER BRONCOS VS (488) DETROIT LIONS edit

Take: (487) DENVER BRONCOS 

Reason: Play Denver -3 The Broncos continue to get trickle down value ATS compared to a season ago. For as poor as they've played they're 2-0 ATS and in the win column. Detroit is in disarray and even though they've showed some bright spots they have the knack of melting down at the wrong time in games. Grab the Broncos to add some new wrinkles offensively and land the cover ATS.

09/27 10:00 AM  NFL   (467) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS (468) NEW YORK JETS edit

Take: (468) NEW YORK JETS 

Reason: Play Jets -1 Top Play of the Week Todd Bowles has the Jets as focused as any team in the NFL currently. The defense has forced a whopping ten turnovers in just two games and the offense is doing enough. I like the combination to continue to get the Jets a win Sunday against the Eagles. Philadelphia already has had issues with players supporting coach Chip Kelly and now that his system is failing, there is going to be a lingering effect Sunday. Grab the Jets to put the Eagles to 0-3.

09/27 10:00 AM  NFL   (465) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS (466) HOUSTON TEXANS edit

Take: (465) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 

Reason: Play Bucs plus 7 The Texans will try to avoid an 0-2 start against a Bucs team that responded nice in a big underdog win last week. Jameis Winston showcased confidence which should only blossom with Mike Evans back in the lineup. Houston came back down big last week to make a game of it but don't have the look of a team to back as a touchdown favorite. Grab the Bucs Sunday

09/26 05:30 PM  CF   (387) UTAH VS (388) OREGON edit

Take: (387) UTAH 

Reason: Play Utah plus 12 This number will likely rise by Saturday kickoff but I'm fine with the current line of plus twelve. A big school that has covered frequently in years past is always going to get late cash at the window before games. Here Utah will look to exact a bit of revenge from last year's rout loss. They had numerous chances to make a game of it and nearly had a 14-0 lead. A gaffe at the goal line allowed Oregon to return a 99 yard touchdown defensively. Oregon's defense is giving up nearly 34 points a game. Expect Utah to match up well offensively and stay in this game. Grab the twelve points.

09/26 05:00 PM  CF   (401) UCLA VS (402) ARIZONA edit

Take: (401) UCLA 

Reason: Play UCLA The Bruins got away with a win last week as near 17 point favorites against BYU. Winning those type of games doesn't look great ATS but awakens a team with talent. Freshman quarterback Josh Rosen has had his share of mistakes the past couple of weeks but I look for the Bruins to bounce back nicely on the road against Arizona. UCLA is a true top ten to fifteen team while I believe Arizona is rated higher than they should be. Grab UCLA

09/26 04:00 PM  CF   (335) ARKANSAS STATE VS (336) TOLEDO edit

Take: (335) ARKANSAS STATE 

Reason: Play Arkansas State plus 7 We see this from time to time when a small school with talent gets a bit of inflated value off of big wins. Yes they did defeat Iowa State and Arkansas but Toledo has been far too rusty offensively to back two weeks in a row as seven point favorites. Arkansas State will bode to be a challenge for Toledo. Grab the seven early as this line should come down.

09/26 03:00 PM  CF   (311) ARMY VS (312) EASTERN MICHIGAN edit

Take: (312) EASTERN MICHIGAN 

Reason: Play Eastern Michigan -1.5 The MAC continues to be an under valued conference ATS to start the 2015 season. They've done it with a style of outscoring opposing teams. Eastern Michigan will look to pile on points early against a team in Army that has a suspect defense. I expect Eastern Michigan to make enough stops on the defense side of the football to do enough to limit Army's option attack. Grab Eastern Michigan Saturday.

09/25 05:00 PM  CF   (305) BOISE STATE VS (306) VIRGINIA edit

Take: (305) BOISE STATE 

Reason: Play Boise State -2.5 Friday offers an unusual solid game for viewers and bettors before Saturday's big slate of action. Boise State of the Mountain West has lost a little of their flare from years past which may sway bettors minds to Virginia's side. Virginia has the allure of nearly beating Notre Dame fresh in minds. The fact of the matter is Virginia has failed to display solid offense and defense for four quarters in my opinion. This is a solid matchup but Boise State will get the overall win and ATS cover

09/20 05:30 PM  NFL   (287) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS (288) GREEN BAY PACKERS edit

Take: (288) GREEN BAY PACKERS 

Reason: Play Green Bay -3 One of the best early season Sunday night games in recent memory will be showcased against the Seahawks and Packers. Each time these two teams play something special has happened. This time should be no different. Aaron Rodgers may be missing Jordy Nelson but that doesn't take away or diminish his overall skill set. Just last week he made James Jones career resurrect from the dead with a huge game against Chicago. Look for the Packers to be focused in all phases of special teams, defense, and offense and win this game by double digits. Take Green Bay.

09/20 01:25 PM  NFL   (285) DALLAS COWBOYS VS (286) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES edit

Take: (285) DALLAS COWBOYS 

Reason: Play Dallas plus 5 The loss of Dez Bryant will take its toll on the Cowboys but it will also give Tony Romo a chance to develop this team even further. Dallas has a great vantage point of knowing what the Eagles are going to bring to the table Sunday. With Bradford still shaky under center this is a premium buy in my opinion on Dallas. Romo and the Cowboys gifted turnovers to the Giants and still found a way to win last week. This week they'll limit the mistakes and get to 2-0.

09/20 10:00 AM  NFL   (265) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS (266) PITTSBURGH STEELERS edit

Take: (265) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 

Reason: Play San Francisco plus 7 The 49ers for the second week in a row are getting attractive value in my opinion from oddsmakers. Naysayers believe the 49ers win had more to do with Minnesota's poor play calling over San Francisco's effort. I'm not one of them. I believe they have solid balance and a tight end in Vernon Davis that should pose similar problems that Gronk did to New England week one. Pittsburgh may win this game but split your wager 70/30---with 30% on the money line.

09/20 10:00 AM  NFL   (269) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS (270) BUFFALO BILLS edit

Take: (269) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 

Reason: Play New England It's amazing how quickly a team can shift value on a point spread. Buffalo's week one win over Indianapolis was excellent but also a completely different team. Indianapolis likes to attack with the football vertically and still does not have a solid running game. New England on the other hand likes to attack on short routes that the best of defenses have a hard time stopping. Just look at the Super Bowl against Seattle and games against the Ravens, Broncos, and Bengals last year for evidence of that. I'm not sure Tyrod Taylor is ready to face adversity if down a touchdown. Grab the veteran Patriots.

Ole Miss (151) vs Alabama (152)Play Ole Miss Plus 7
                   Saturday night there are intriguing games from a host of conferences.  Alabama and Ole Miss square off as the SEC takes center stage in prime time. Ole Miss has been a scoring machine to start the season but will they be prepared to contend with Alabama? We believe so as last year they battled back from an early deficit to knock off the Crimson Tide. Defensively Ole Miss has just as many key pieces as Alabama. Look for Ole Miss to stay in this one as they can replicate last year's game plan to have success. Don't be fooled by the Crimson Tide. Grab the full touchdown here

09/19 05:00 PM  CF   (195) STANFORD VS (196) USC edit

Take: (195) STANFORD 

Reason: Play Stanford plus 10 I expect this line to stay around this number as USC boasts a fantastic team. Yet this is a rivalry game that has lived up to the billing year after year in the Pac-12. With this game being early in the season I believe it favors the defensive minded Stanford Cardinal. Speeding up the tempo has not worked for USC in recent years against Stanford, and I don't see it happening on Saturday either. This is a marquee game where you'll want points on your side. Grab Stanford plus 10.

09/19 04:00 PM  CF   (163) SO MISSISSIPPI VS (164) TEXAS STATE edit

Take: (163) SO MISSISSIPPI 

Reason: Play Southern Miss plus 3 Saturday this is my under the radar play on Southern Miss. Texas State is a team that has some fire power but is not a team that is going to pull away under any circumstance. That should leave the Golden Eagles an opportunity to steal this game and perhaps get an early lead. Either way this is a safe number to grab the plus three and play the road team in Southern Miss.

09/19 04:00 PM  CF   (129) NORTH CAROLINA STATE VS (130) OLD DOMINION edit

Take: (130) OLD DOMINION 

Reason: Play Old Dominion plus 17 Added Play Saturday Old Dominion looks to surprise folks as 17 point underdogs at home. This figures to be a lopsided affair as Old Dominion has struggled to stop the run this season. That may be the case but their offense is solid enough to put up points against NC State. I also expect Old Dominion to handle the run better as they'll have focused energy against a top non-conference opponent. Grab Old Dominion plus 17.

09/19 02:00 PM  CF   (161) UTAH STATE VS (162) WASHINGTON edit

Take: (161) UTAH STATE 

Reason: Play Utah State plus 7 buy the hook We'll buy the hook in this spot as Utah State travels to Washington for another Pac-12 non-conference game. I liked how Utah State played last week against Utah. Even though Chuckie Keaton took some hits he showed adversity to keep his team in the game. A little bit better of accuracy from Keaton and they may have pulled off the upset. I expect him to be much more fluid in this game as he is finally settling in off of missing a full season with injury. Both Utah State and Washington have solid defenses that should neutralize each other. In the end the experience at quarterback will make the difference and that sides to Utah State.

09/17 04:30 PM  CF   (103) CLEMSON VS (104) LOUISVILLE edit

Take: (103) CLEMSON 

Reason: Play Clemson -6 While I do expect Louisville to show a drop down in turnovers against Clemson, the overall main factor here is that Clemson is the supreme team. Louisville just has too many question marks at quarterback that are unresolved. The defense has stepped down a few notches and that's not what you want in an early game Thursday. Play Clemson -6.

09/14 04:10 PM  NFL   (489) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS (490) ATLANTA FALCONS edit

Take: (489) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 

Reason: Play Philadelphia Eagles -3 Though the Falcons may be a better team than last year, Monday Night is going to side to the away team in the Eagles. Defensively and offensively the Eagles are just a couple notches ahead of the Falcons. Chip Kelly will utilize his aggressive offense and defense to dictate tempo and momentum early. Grab the Eagles

09/13 01:25 PM  NFL   (485) BALTIMORE RAVENS VS (486) DENVER BRONCOS edit

Take: (486) DENVER BRONCOS 

Reason: Play Denver -4 Shop around to get this number to 4 and if you have to buy the half point. Baltimore has been a team that has been an AFC force for years but I wouldn't be surprised to see this season be a bit of a failure for them. Denver on the other hand has added pieces with the only main question mark being Peyton Manning's health. Early in the season I don't think that will be a main concern. Manning has torched this Ravens defense two years in a row, last year on opening day and in the playoffs the prior season. The Broncos get it done again in a close game but one that they get the cover.