Push aside South Alabama’s victory over Troy and there is not much to be showcased for their season. Saturday they’ll host a Louisiana Lafayette team that has struggled mightily against higher grade offenses. Look for Lafayette to attack South Alabama’s defense and play much sharper than their last performance that featured a 47-3 loss to Arkansas State.

It has not been Georgia Southern’s season. At 0-7 it goes without saying that they’ve been a major failure on the football field. That goes with ATS support as well as they’ve been blown out recently against UMass and last week against Troy. Yet, this is a home spot where they can play within the number against a Georgia State team that’s inflated from their 3-1 conference record.

The Jets have lost consecutive heart breakers after surrendering steep leads. They’ll face a desperate Atlanta Falcons team that faced the same opponents in the Dolphins and Patriots. As odd as that is, the fact of the matter is the Falcons have lost their team identity offensively. This has caused a young defense to suffer. Look for the Jets to attack the Falcons defense and cover as five point home dogs.

At 4-2 Buffalo may be the least talked about team with an above .500 record in football. All of their wins and losses have been close results. Yet, they know how to pull finish games especially at home where they boast a 3-0 record. Sunday is expected to be 48 degrees with rain. Take the Bills to continue to protect their home field. 

An unusual dual quarterback system is working for Boise State. Utilizing their system has caught teams off balance and allowed Boise State to regroup after a demoralizing loss to Virginia. With Utah State coming off a blowout win over UNLV one may side with the home dog here. Instead grab the value on Boise State.

New Mexico State has had a peculiar schedule. Thus far on the season they’ve played five road games compared to two at home. It’s part of the reason why they’re short home dogs against undefeated Sun Belt opponent Arkansas State. All season New Mexico State has been a team that rises to the occasion against stiffer competition. Grab the Aggies.

As impressive as Penn State’s win was last week it should not be skewed ATS. Oddsmakers are aware of that and have priced accordingly against Ohio State. Ohio State’s vaunted offensive attack should not skip a beat against a Penn State team that hasn’t been tested to this degree. Grab the Buckeyes. 

Four of five losses for the Buffaloes have shown a far superior weakness offensively than anticipated in pre-season. Buffaloes quarterback Steven Montez performed so poorly last week against the Cougars that he was benched in the second half. Sometimes that is needed be done to get someone to respond. Look for Montez and the Buffaloes to finally resemble the team of last season.

Consecutive dominant wins by the Eagles has pushed their ATS value to a season-high. A combination of variables leads me to side with Washington here. One, week one’s road win by Philadelphia skews this line a tad. Also, the Redskins have not exhibited solid second half football that’s plagued them in recent matchups against Kansas City and San Francisco. Teams with Thursday game rest have been strong ATS the following week, but look for this game to reverse the course. Grab Washington.

Oddsmakers sometimes have to shift line value for the downright obvious reasons. Here the Steelers are taking on a team in the Bengals coming off a bye week. Their defense has been a factor in years past at limiting Big Ben and covering against the Steelers. Even though the Steelers offense isn’t scoring at the volume of years past, they’re finding a balance. Grab the Steelers to cover Sunday.

What I’ve seen in Vegas is the knack for bettors to continue to chase the Browns. Last week oddsmakers did a great job in inflating a line that did not matter against the Texans. This week they’ve done so again but the attraction lies with the Browns as a home dog. Unfortunately Cleveland catches a Titans team blossoming with confidence and is an untimely matchup. Grab the Titans.

Out in the Pac-12 perhaps no team has been as disappointing as Colorado. They haven’t had the killer injuries some teams have had yet have taken a major step back. Part of that has been due to Steven Montez’s woes. After squeezing out a win over lowly Oregon State, one may side with Washington State after their first loss. Instead, expect the Buffaloes to play their best game in a month. Grab Colorado.

Both the Ducks and Bruins have an inordinate amount of unexpected on the field talent issues. Minus Justin Herbert the Ducks have failed miserably in two straight blowout losses. Yet, UCLA lacks the team discipline to capitalize off of roster matchup advantages. Grab the Ducks to keep this close and within the spread.

Last week Navy caught a break on the road as they covered with a backdoor touchdown and two-point conversion. As ugly as they played it was a winnable performance against a similar octane offense as Central Florida’s in Memphis. Better execution and Navy can keep themselves in this game in similar fashion. The weakened American conference has a knack for boosting team’s AP ranking, and that is the case with Central Florida.

I had this game as my third play on the NFL board via 5dimes early line of 7.5. That’s what we have here and will look for the Titans to respond with Mariota back under center. In all phases the Titans have under achieved since their blowout win over the Jaguars in week two. Indianapolis just doesn’t have the personnel to keep up with a Titans team that is far better than their play/record indicates.

The Bears played about as ugly as one team can on Monday night, and now will travel on the road to Baltimore. It’s safe to say that the Ravens veteran defense will be primed for the miscues that Mitch Trubisky showcased Monday. Still, the Ravens have not been consistent enough offensively to warrant this spread. Grab Chicago to keep covering within the number. 

The Vikings injuries continue to mount. After losing rookie running back Dalvin Cook they’ll now be without Sam Bradford and Stefon Diggs. That’s going to put a high burden on the shoulder of Case Keenum who has not looked comfortable in recent outings. Off of Green Bay’s stout win look for the Vikings experience defensively against Aaron Rodgers to shine. Back the home Vikings to cover the field goal here.

Can the Bruins reshape their season coming off a bye week? They’ll travel to Tucson Saturday against a reinvigorated Wildcats team. Against Colorado last week the Wildcats displayed the type of play many expected under Rich Rodriguez. The victory was against an underperforming Buffaloes team. Grab UCLA to bring a higher level of intensity and get the road win against Arizona.

Out in the Sun Belt Saturday action lies with UL Monroe as a touchdown favorite against Georgia State. Georgia State will look to lean on senior quarterback Connor Manning’s shoulders against a potent Louisiana Monroe team. Both teams are on win streaks but expect Monroe’s defensive edge to dictate the ATS outcome. Grab Louisiana Monroe. 

A battle of top twenty-five teams in the American Conference squares two teams with completely different styles. Memphis is coming off an unchallenged blowout against UConn last Friday. While one may expect their potent play of 70 points to pose a challenge to Navy, they’ll be thwarted at home. Grab Navy.

The Hurricanes miracle victory last week came in the final ten seconds against Florida State. After a victory as such a hangover factor could be in the works against a talented Georgia Tech team. Instead look for the win to inject new life into the Hurricane. Grab Miami.

My theory on backup quarterbacks is they show their true colors after two starts. Ideally Minnesota never wanted to be in the situation of having to start Case Keenum. After a great performance against the Bucs he did not show the merit in a winnable game against the Lions. With Dalvin Cook’s season ending injury it appears the Vikings may be rushing back Sam Bradford. The Bears get a fresh start by starting Mitchell Trubisky. He won’t be the center piece Monday but expect the Bears defense to carry over the Lions game plan on a week ago.

The Packers continue to face familiar opponents. In week two they met the Atlanta Falcons for the third time in a year in Atlanta, and will now travel to Dallas for the third time in a season and a half. Green Bay’s issues with their running game will put a high burden on Aaron Rodgers shoulders, but not to the degree that Dak Prescott is facing. Dallas seems to be stuck in a play call shield as they try to reconfigure what worked last season and isn’t this. That bodes to the strength of the veteran on field Packers team as well as the sideline experience coaching wise. Grab Green Bay. 

The Colts have shown very little offensively but are growing more and more comfortable with Jacoby Brissett. San Francisco has gained in ATS value with three straight covers against Seattle, LA, and Arizona. While they have been covering games it’s obvious the same play call connection between Coach Shanahan and Brian Hoyer is missing. Grab the Colts off their late Sunday night performance in Seattle.

Two seasons ago Washington State put themselves on the map with an overtime win as steep underdogs in Eugene. That performance was followed up by a blow out win in 2016 of 51-33 over Oregon. After an upset win over USC this is a turning point game for the Cougars to push themselves into the top ten. Instead, look for the seniors and coaching change to Willie Taggart to pay dividends for the home Ducks.

The Buffaloes find themselves amidst a two-game losing streak against a well-rested Arizona Wildcats team. Off a bye week the Wildcats last game was fifteen days ago on a Friday night against Utah. Without a doubt the Buffaloes offense has dropped off from last year’s showcase. With Arizona’s combined two losses by a mere nine points, one would expect this to be close. Instead look for the Buffaloes to execute on both sides of the football and win by double-digits.

Both Idaho and UL Lafayette are coming off bye weeks. UL Lafayette will get their starting quarterback in Jordan Davis back from injury. That’s not where oddsmakers have inflated this point spread. They did so based on the worst defense in football in UL Lafayette. Idaho’s four year senior starting quarterback in Matt Linehan should be able to pick apart the Rajun Cajuns. Still, I’m not impressed with Idaho’s play calling and sloppy turnovers. Grab the value on UL Lafayette.

Both Oakland and Denver are coming off shaky week three performances. Denver’s continued distrust with quarterback Trevor Semien on the road impacted their chance to win against Buffalo. While Oakland will assuredly come out the gate with a stronger performance, this is a game that will be swung and won in the fourth quarter. Throughout his young career Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has been one of the best quarterbacks to ride against when poor performances rear their head. Expect Carr’s turnover issues from last week to continue. 

There is no doubt that Dallas has played a tough schedule to start the season. The same can not be said for the Rams. LA’s two wins have come against Indianapolis and San Francisco, which are a combined 1-5. Washington’s strong showing on the road in LA only benefits the attraction on Dallas here. With confidence and returning home for the first time since week one oddsmakers have baited this line a tad. Grab the Rams here to have an impactful game plan on both sides of the football to gain the cover.

Coach John Harbaugh has to be displeased with the Ravens efforts over the last six quarters of football. While the Ravens defeated the Browns in week two by fourteen points, the win was masked by red zone issues and five Browns turnovers. Jacksonville used that film to their advantage and continued to rack up yards on Baltimore’s defense for 410 yards. Yet, Baltimore’s defense has always had an ability to perform well against Pittsburgh as well as veteran quarterback Joe Flacco. Grab the value here on the home Ravens.

Excellent game plans against three conservative teams has catapulted San Diego State to 19th ranked and 4-0. San Diego State answered the difficult test of a road conference game in a narrow victory over Air Force last week. Now the shift is how will they respond on their home field against a MAC opponent. Coming off a victory over Nebraska on the road and continuing travel to California has created value on the Huskies side. Grab Northern Illinois. 

Every two to three years there is a powerhouse team that has a steep drop off. At 0-2, Florida State appears to be that team. After two weeks off from Hurricane Irma rust was apparent in last week’s loss to North Carolina State. Yet this point spread is a team can’t go 0-3 line versus reality. While Wake Forest offers a methodical game plan that suits Florida State they have the better defense to offset a fourth quarter melt down.

UMass is now 0-5 but has played respectable defense to hang in games all season long. In fact, all five of their losses are by ten points or less. Ohio has the attraction of rising sophomore quarterback Nathan Rourke but expect consecutive road games to play a role Saturday. The point spread is off here by a mere few points based on UMass’s winless season.

The Eagles played well in a loss to the Chiefs. Though it stands as a loss and puts them at 1-1, I believe they’re being downgraded in terms of the number. A win in Kansas City may have pushed this line north of 7.5-8 against the Giants. New York has a laundry list of issues that will continue to grow on Sunday. Grab the value on a Philadelphia team that is poised for an aggressive home division win.

A problematic week one performance at home by the Jets against Buffalo compounded last week with an embarrassing loss to the Raiders. On the opposite side the Dolphins gutted out a win over the Chargers on the road. With both teams traveling from California to New York, this has created an arguable point spread. While the fish should be favored a six point line is a bit of a stretch. Grab the points here.

Over the last several years the Saints have underachieved drastically. That isn’t a doubt, but they’ve also been a team to rise to the occasion in must-win situations. On the road after two abysmal performances this stands as a situation for a team to rise to the occasion. Carolina is 2-0 with both wins by six points or more, yet they haven’t been able to click on all cylinders. Expect that to occur again and the Saints to hang around.

Time and time again Appalachian State has been the circled team to topple the big schools. Instead they’ve disappointed with lopsided losses to Miami in 2016 and this year to Georgia 31-10. Last week’s 20-13 win as steep favorites to Texas State has put this line out of position a tad. As strong as Wake Forest has looked, expect a down to Earth performance before they embark in ACC play.

Expected offensive and defensive rust is to be displayed by Eastern Michigan Saturday. Their last game occurred fourteen days ago on September 9th in an upset win over the lowly Rutger Scarlet Knights. Against a dynamic Ohio offense the Eagles are going to need to show a surge in offense that they did not display in wins against Charlotte and Rutgers. Expect new wrinkles to be unveiled and for Eastern Michigan to take advantage of their rest.

Saturday, we’ll grab the road value on Idaho as they take on South Alabama. South Alabama has faced the tougher competition with games against Ole Miss and Oklahoma State. That rise in competition stands out to the weaker schedule of Idaho. Idaho struggled in consecutive losses including a home loss of 44-16 to UNLV. Yet, look for conference play to offer the familiarity needed to cover against South Alabama. Cimini’s Take, Idaho.

A small line lies with the Rams as they take on Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins Sunday. Unlike the majority of NFL teams it appears that a home crowd edge is not there for the Rams. Illustrating that fact was the media’s drawn out attention to the Rams cheap ticket prices and empty stadium in their week one 46-9 victory. Sidestep the crowd issues and grab the value on a Rams team oddsmakers will be chasing a new number on similar to the Cowboys/Vikings of last season.

A blowout victory on the road and ten days to prep for the Philadelphia Eagles are obvious swaying factors for the Chiefs. Yet, these are two teams that will be fully prepared based on the familiarity of Doug Pederson and Andy Reid’s prior history. While the Patriots lacked the skillset at wide receiver and speed on defense to negate the Chiefs, the Eagles flourish in that department. This is a classic reactionary point spread based on the Chiefs week one dominance and the Eagles opening the season with consecutive road games. Grab Philadelphia.

The Arizona Cardinals may have received what the doctor ordered in a week two matchup against the Colts. For three quarters the Cardinals looked in position to defeat a sound Detroit Lions team. It appears oddsmakers handicapped that performance over the Cardinals fourth quarter. Yet, not closing out games has been a continuous repetitive issue for the Cardinals. Although the Colts game plan won’t be high end, look for the Cardinals to defeat themselves again. Grab the points here.

The ra-ra emphasis after week one’s loss to Maryland worked for Texas Coach Tom Hermann. In week two they shutout San Jose State to the tune of 52-0. Yet, this week they’ll be facing the destiny of the future of the Longhorns program. Transformation growth as a true contender took the Trojans countless years. They’re finally out in front of media’s expectations and bookmakers. Grab the Trojans to continue to cash ATS. 

Often smaller conferences that bode well in early non-conference scheduling get an improper evaluation. New Mexico State played a tight game against Arizona State, and upset New Mexico for the second consecutive year. They performed above expectations in both of those games by neutralizing their opponents speed. In-conference against Troy expect the script to be flipped. Troy has excelled within the conference and has annihilated New Mexico State by a combined score of 104-13 the last two meetings. Cimini’s Take: Troy.

A battle in Ohio against MAC school Miami-Ohio and Cincinnati serves as this week’s trap line of the week. Without a doubt Miami-Ohio has the more fluid team on both sides of the football, and attention of the betting markets. Time and time again the Bearcats have been a major letdown under quarterback Hayden Moore in key and under the radar matchups. Yet, this is a spot where Hayden Moore can unmask some of his talent to keep the Bearcats within reach. Take the points here.

The first few weeks of the football season can create an over reaction from the betting markets. Clemson’s carry over value as National Champion grew with stout week one and week two performances. Seemingly the value here lies on Louisville’s perceived poor performances in close victories over Purdue and North Carolina. Look for the Cardinal to show their team growth as a whole as they tone down the pressure off of Lamar Jackson’s shoulders.

Minus former offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, Nick Saban has got the offense he wants. A more aggressive attack that can compliment their ferocious defense. The worry here is Colorado State senior quarterback Nick Stevens should be able to get late scores for a backdoor opportunity. Instead, expect the next in-line Alabama second and third unit players to treat their time on the field as one of their last opportunities to shine.

We’ve seen a massive point spread leap from the opening to closing line here. The home Washington State Cougars originally opened in the 15-15.5 range. To climb to 21 is a sign of an oddsmaker error. Yet, I’ll attribute the line move based on two embarrassing losses by Oregon State that had received public/sharp backing (Colorado State/Minnesota). After losing 48-14 to Minnesota last week expect Oregon State to finally start to look like a Pac-12 team. 

San Diego has always had a style of play that has been a thorn to the Denver Broncos. Adding to that notion is how difficult a week one game against a division opponent can be. While the Chargers have upgraded talent that is on par with the Broncos they have been an unstable franchise. Over the last five years the Broncos have won in week one and covered all matchups but a .5 hook loss to the Colts SNF in 2014. Cimini’s Take: Denver 

Russ Wilson is healthy and the Seahawks are back to being loaded on defense. On the other side Green Bay has kept their usual ways of development intact. Hardly any off-season signings were completed and their former starting tailback signed with the Seahawks. Week one is about finding the value on final drive teams, and Aaron $$ has displayed time and time again the ability to thrive in close games. Grab the Packers to finish this one late.

New regimes for the 49ers have not gone well over the last couple of seasons. Yet the big change for the 49ers was bringing in journeyman Brian Hoyer. The future is a work in progress but his stability is enough against a Carolina team that is still getting glory off of their 2015 season. Keep in mind new coach Kyle Shanahan has a history against the Panthers from his Falcons days, including the only team to upset the Panthers in 2015. Fresh on people’s minds was the beat down week two performance the Panthers put on the 49ers in San Francisco last season. Expect a different outcome as the Panthers continue to get in their own way.

An unusual game plan in week one from the Sun Devils masked some of their carry over issues from prior seasons. Against New Mexico State they made nearly zero defensive substitutions the entire game, and their offense did not show consistency. San Diego State does not have Donnel Pumphrey at running back anymore but has the better balanced team to get the point spread cover. They also have the mental edge knowing they can defeat a Pac-12 team from last year’s 45-40 victory over California. Cimini’s Take: Grab San Diego State.

The Houston Cougars make their season debut Saturday. Their debut was postponed by a week due to cancellation of their week one matchup against UTSA due to Hurricane Harvey. New Coach Major Applewhite will make his debut as well and looks to fill the void of former quarterback Greg Ward Jr. Arizona’s explosive offense will be a challenge for the Cougars but this is a spot where you lean on the line movement being proper. Cimini’s Take: Grab the Cougars.

A revenge game or spot is a term often verbalized in the betting markets. In all likelihood this is an off the radar non marquee matchup that is sure to attract that lingo. Last year the Aggies upset the Lobos as 13-13.5 point underdogs at New Mexico.  In that game the Aggies used the Lobos aggressive offensive attack against them. It was a similar style witnessed last week in a six point loss to ASU. Grab the Aggies familiarity to hold course again. Cimini’s Take: New Mexico State +7.5

Brian Kelly has endured a luxury most coaches at high level programs aren’t afforded. Time. Amidst suspensions and talented teams not meeting expectations, the Irish have continued to show patience with Kelly. Entering the season right inside the top twenty-five has lowered the program expectations which could be the strength of the Irish. Georgia continuously falters against top competition and will fail to keep up with the octane Irish. Cimini’s Take: Notre Dame.

Week one’s marquee games have taken a bit of thunder away from week one’s Texas A&M at UCLA matchup. Last year’s matchup featured an overtime thriller that the Aggies pulled off 31-24. With the Aggies unsettled at quarterback and heading on the road to UCLA this spot would seem advantageous for the Josh Rosen led Bruins. Except that Rosen struggled with three interceptions against the Aggies last year and only played in six games last season. His last start was October 8th. Expect almost a full year layoff and pressure to perform well to hinder the Bruins and Rosen. Cimini’s Take: Texas A&M

Virginia Tech -4

Making his debut for the West Virginia Mountaineers is quarterback Will Grier. Grier has the attraction of SEC eyes and the fact that he was 6-0 as a starter for Florida. Coach Dana Holgorsen is known for showcasing an arsenal of prolific offensive packages. Can Grier match the skillset necessary to run Holgorsen’s offense? Not in game one against a top notch Virginia Tech defense that’s downgraded from a point spread perspective due to the team starting a redshirt freshman quarterback in Josh Jackson. Cimini’s Take: Virginia Tech

Ole Miss -23.5

The resignation of former Coach Huge Freeze was a shock that figures to add value to Saturday’s opener. The Rebels are coming off an unimpressive 5-7 season, in which they struggled to defeat Sun Belt opponent Georgia Southern 37-27. Saturday’s opponent in South Alabama has vast experience with senior tailback Xavier Johnson and quarterback Dallas Davis. Yet, expect Ole Miss to make a statement and capitalize off of turnovers. Cimini’s Take: Ole Miss.

Sunday is where a two week layoff of preparation will be all the difference to side with the Patriots. While the Falcons are the hottest team, the Patriots just know how to win games. Not only is that trait a huge factor, but the Patriots also have experience of playing against the ultra hot NFC Super Bowl opponent (Giants twice) and losing. Matchups are everything and the Falcons are the NFC opponent the Patriots wanted. Taking the Falcons out of their game plan with methodical drives against an over rated defense, will force the pressure on a short attack Falcons offense. Grab the Patriots.

In years past Dallas would be due for a let down. We've seen it time and time again. Yet, Jerry Jones entrusted his Coach in Jason Garrett and built a solid team to be primed for Sunday. While Green Bay's amazing run has been a showcase, they've done it against one-dimensional teams. Dallas has in-line running back depth, a multi-dimensional quarterback, and a confident defense. Back the Cowboys here to end the Packers run.

By no means has Seattle made anything look pretty and easy. Even their cover and win last week at home by Detroit looked subpar. During the regular season Atlanta, felt like they let one slip away in Seattle. With the bye week to prepare one would believe the Falcons as the side here. Instead, I expect the Seahawks to continue to elevate the brand of football we typically see from them in the playoffs. Grab the Seahawks.

What a matchup Monday for the title. Alabama has been exceptional this year, which may be their downfall Monday. Clemson as a whole has always been the type of team that plays up or down to their competition, as witnessed on several occasions in ACC and non-conference play. There is unfinished business here from a Tigers team that has the arsenal to take advantage of the few cracks of Alabama. Quarterback DeShaun Watson is already confident from last year's game, while the defense wants to raise their level of play from their letdown a year ago. Had Clemson ran the table there is no doubt this spread would be closer to 4. We'll grab the points and see a close finish similar to last year.

Five year gaps from a major playoff run can deter bettors. Both the Giants and Packers are in that realm from their Super Bowl runs years back. While the Packers strength of schedule to get into the playoffs was subpar, there is no doubting they're playing a peak level of football. In my view there is not a player-coach combo that when at their peak excels better than Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy. Both are there while the Giants have shown to many issues all season long to have faith in their 11-5 record. Grab the Packers.

While the Seattle Seahawks have done little to warrant the big spreads they've had all season, Saturday will be a time I back them. Detroit comes in with a topsy turvy style of play on both sides of the football. While they manage first halves decently, second halves have been a disaster from game management, turnovers, and overall play. This may truly be Seattle's last chance to shine with the key veterans amongst Pete Carroll. They won't take the Lions lightly after a near scare last year on MNF.

One of the memorable games this season in prime time was witnessing the Panthers botch a one-sided MNF game against the Buccaneers. With a chance to put the dagger kill shot on a worn down Buccaneers team, backup Derek Anderson threw an awful red zone pick. That game seemed to fuel the Buccaneers as they rolled to an 8-5 record. Yet two consecutive losses have derailed the Buccaneers chances, even though they still have a window of opportunity Sunday.This is a spot where you can ride against the motivation factor for the Buccaneers and take a Panthers team that let one slip away earlier this season. Grab the Panthers.

Folks, saw the Denver Broncos cave on their home field and are now in a similar position as a year ago. With two games left they could possibly find themselves on the outside looking in for the playoffs. Making matters worse is they'll face a Chiefs team coming off a home loss and one that is in better shape to control their playoff destiny. Still, besides the Chiefs dominance over the Raiders they've failed to exhibit quality dominating football. Even in a must-win home spot, look for similar issues to arise.

To start the NFL season perhaps there wasn't an uglier performance than the one the Rams had against the San Francisco 49ers. In the game the road favorites were defeated handily, in a game that was sign of things to come under Jeff Fisher. Now both the 49ers and Rams have two different quarterbacks under center, with the Rams inputting rookie Jared Goff. Goff hasn't been stellar by any means but has delivered timely throws and shown he is on the cusp of a breakout game. This is a change over game that few teams get for motivation into next season. Having been embarrassed 28-0 in week one on MNF combined with a fresh new look quarterback and interim coach, leads to the ATS cover for the Rams.

This time a year ago the Falcons were playing the spoiler and knocked off the undefeated Panthers. Now, they aim to be the main reason the Panthers avoid finishing the season at .500. Though the Panthers have shown that they're not mailing it in with two straight victories, the fact of the matter is they're a shell of what they were a season ago. Solid game plans against Ron Rivera's former team in the Chargers (defensive coordinator) and the Redskins have overvalued the Panthers here. The fact of the matter is Matt Ryan has been a comfortable quarterback against the Panthers. In his last three games he has thrown for 1,033 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions against the Panthers. That should be enough for a division foe such as Atlanta to exploit even on the road. 

A year ago at home, Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston suffered one of his worst visual performances in a 10-6 win against Dallas. That loss for the Cowboys was a microcosm of the need to upgrade the running back (McFadden 17 carries for 32 yards) and quarterback (Cassel 186 yards, 1 pick) position.  Keep in mind this Bucs team has traveled on the road to KC and San Diego, and played two tough home games against the Seahawks/Saints over the last month. Dallas on the other hand had the benefit of consecutive Thursday games followed by a divisional game on the road. Sometimes teams peak at the late stages of a season only to fizzle out of the playoff hunt. Tampa Bay will be that team.

The Patriots have taken advantage of an easy schedule over the last month to jump out to an 11-2 record. Denver on the other hand has been topsy turvy with inconsistent play lurking one week to the next via special teams, offense, or defense. To beat New England even at home you need to be able to depend on all three phases. While the Patriots defense isn't elite, they'll be the difference on the road to out duel a former top defense of the Broncos.

Not many teams have tail spun as negatively as the Eagles have. They've lost four straight with a defense that looks defeated, and an offense struggling with a rookie quarterback. Opposite the Ravens are in a must win situation to keep pace with the Steelers and remain in the wild card hunt. With rookie quarterback Carson Wentz struggles it's hard to see him getting out of it on the road. Yet, with his rookie expectations toned down I believe he can finish the season strong. Grab the value here on the Ravens.

New Mexico -7.5

New Mexico looks to take advantage of their home field as they take on UT San Antonio. UT San Antonio snuck in at 6-6 but did stand forth in close losses against Colorado State and ASU. Yet, New Mexico has an up tempo offense that will be too much for Texas San Antonio. Grab the Lobos to put on an offensive show.

I'll lean to the side of the Giants who have not been a strong team all season ATS at home. They're coming off a poor performance which could have been much worse than the score indicated against Pittsburgh. Dallas on the other hand has played consecutive Thursday games and remains unbeaten since week one. Rust showed in both their Thursday wins and I believe it carries over to Sunday night. Dallas may escape with another win but the Giants get the cover.

It's hard not to be distracted by the NFC South which features all teams that grab headlines. The Falcons with Julio Jones and their turn around season, the Saints in the Sean Payton era, and the Panthers weekly episodes. Under the radar have been the Bucs who are quietly battling for the division title. Momentum continues to rise on their side as they won last week in San Diego. At home this will be a matchup that the Bucs need to rely on their defense more than their offense to get the W. Look for that to happen as the Bucs defense over the years has been strong at home against Drew Brees. Grab the Bucs.

Carolina +8.5

The distrust in the Carolina Panthers has finally set in for oddsmakers. Seattle coming off a poor loss is still seen as an overmatch here. I'm not sold on that, as even though the Panthers have under performed they've been in the majority of their games. The notion that Russ Wilson is healthy and should pick apart a poor Panthers defense, should be discounted. Over the years Russ has struggled to move the football against the Panthers defense even during the Seahawks peak period.

Tampa Bay +4

The back and forth display all season from the Buccaneers is resembled of a team in transition. Perhaps being in a division with sporadic play throughout has swayed proper views of the Bucs. Dirk Koetter has allowed Jameis Winston to lead on the field with full freedom unlike any other quarterback in football. It's grown confidence of every position on offense, and spiked higher effort from a subpar defense. Look for the Bucs to travel well here and take care of business against the Chargers.

The question for everyone is how far can the Bengals sink before a complete 360 is done from oddsmakers. Yearly the NFL has proven what you saw last year is not the case the following. More than any other team in football the Bengals have got in their own way. This is a stylistic game that favors the Eagles with slight advantages on the sideline, red zone scoring percentages, and big play ability on both sides of the football on third downs.

Wisconsin -3

Sometimes it's hard to resist the new and improved team, which is Penn State. They've won with an array of different styles and are coming off an impressive cover against Michigan State. Yet the Badgers have the formula of play that is suited for handling counters of Penn State for four quarters. Grab the Badgers.

Georgia State +7

Here will look at two teams that quite frankly are even on paper. Idaho's above average offensive display lately and home advantage has inflated this line. Georgia State has vastly under achieved and has the offense to test an Idaho defense masked by a great offense. Grab Georgia State as our last Sun Belt play of the season.

LA Lafayette -6.5

It's been an oddsmaker nightmare all season for Lafayette. I've harped on this fact all season long, and will conclude with it here. A shift has occurred as Lafayette finishes out the season as they've been strong against the number. They've done so by trusting their defense and toning down expectations of the offense. It's worked as turnovers have dwindled. Monroe is a team that can't function successfully without pace. Look for Lafayette to disrupt Monroe's pace and win the turnover battle.

New Mexico State +13

With doubt on New Mexico's State's starting quarterback it would seem that South Alabama should be in for an easy win. A win and they'll be eligible for a bowl game. Yet, I'm always a proponent to be leery on backing teams needing one more win that have had a poor conference season. South Alabama's success came pre-conference schedule as they've been dysfunctional in the Sun Belt. Grab the Aggies to fight and hold within the spread.

The Jaguars fell far below pre-season expectations, while the Bills have seemingly exceeded. This is a barometer test on both teams, where the oddsmakers have over-adjusted value on the Bills. Look for the Jaguars capable offense to test the Bills poor pass defense and close the gap on a steep point spread.

Issues with special teams and imbalance offensively have caught up to the Arizona Cardinals. Still, over the years Matt Ryan has had issues facing this Cardinals team. In 2013, Ryan threw four interceptions against Arizona and an abysmal five interceptions against them in 2012. With Ryan's value sky-high currently and the Cardinals inability to cover spreads this seems to be a great spot to grab Atlanta. Instead, grab the Cardinals to get back to .500. 

Colorado -9

At first glance it may be shocking to see the Buffaloes as nine point favorites. Yet, they've grown on both sides of the football. Offensively they continue to score at a high rate, and now their defense has met the challenge. Utah has struggled to generate four quarters of consistent offense, and this matchup should see a rise in their faults. Grab the Buffaloes.

Idaho -5.5

All season long I've harped on South Alabama and their downgrading play. They've come to play against San Diego State and Mississippi State. Outside of those wins they've struggled especially in-conference play. On the road against a potent Idaho team is not a prime scenario for the Jaguars. Grab the Vandals.

Boise State -8

In a year where the Mountain West has seen other teams raise their level of talent, perhaps Boise State is still being devalued. They're certainly not the same level top-tier team they were under Chris Peterson, but they have the extra skill positional players you look for on the road in a tough road environment. Air Force should challenge in this game for two and perhaps two and half quarters. But expect Boise State to pull away late.

Washington +7

This is a great spread on two teams obviously playing at peak levels. Can Washington's pour defense handle the potent Cowboys? It'll be a tough task but during a short week one they can accomplish. Amidst the Cowboys headline play has been how under rated Washington has been offensively. They've answered the bell each time when needed recently having won or tied in seven of their last eight games. Take the points here.

Detroit

After defeating the Arizona Cardinals at home all figures to be well with the Vikings, correct? Not necessarily. Positive signs have been shown with the Vikings offense as they've moved the football two weeks in a row against the Cardinals-Redskins. Throughout that process the defense has slid. This is a game where Jim Bob Cooter can exploit the Vikings defense with his short quick passing game. Grab the Lions.

Packers +3

This is the same spot the Packers were in last season as the entered the playoffs. Odds were against them as small dogs on the road against the Redskins. Though the Packers personnel seems a bit more behind than last season, there is still plenty of time to phase to a higher level. Oddsmakers have kept the Redskins as small home favorites all season long that can't be ignored here. Grab the Packers to right the ship just as they did last January.

Patriots -11

New England travels across the country after a prime time SNF home loss to the Seahawks. They'll also be without Brady's favorite target in Rob Gronkowski. Yet, the 49ers are in mirage territory as offensively they've shown signs in consecutive weeks against the Saints/Cardinals. Even though the Patriots offense may not be 100 percent in sync expect the Patriots defensively to push forth the debate once again on Kaepernick/Gabbert in San Francisco.

Chiefs -7.5

Of all the issues teams have dealt with, Kansas City's Andy Reid does not get enough praise for keeping his Chiefs from faltering. They've dealt with numerous running back injuries, Alex Smith missed time, and the defense is not as strong as last year. Yet, the Chiefs know how to win and Sunday they should be able to exhibit a higher level of separation in the win department. Grab the Chiefs to take over a Buccaneers team that is as one-dimensional as any team in the NFL offensively.

Oregon State -5

The bottom of the Pac-12 features a matchup that many will ignore. Oregon State has lost five consecutive and both programs are 2-8. Yet, there's a difference with a team with a losing record that showcases fight versus a program that needs an obvious change of staff. This is a vote of confidence game for Coach Riley to build his OSU program for next season, while the Wildcats direction is unclear. Grab the Beavers.

BYU -28

This season UMass has hung in contests against Mississippi State, Florida, South Carolina, and Troy for a half. Under normal circumstances this spread would be in the mid 30's, as BYU has not been a strong backer ATS. Even off a bye week, UMass's tough schedule and road travel (close out the season with five of seven road games) are too much to ignore.

Georgia State +3

Oddsmakers are anticipating a close game here as both teams have battled injuries amongst their teams in particular at quarterback. This will come down to the better defense which sides with the aggressive linebackers of Georgia State. Grab the plus 3.

Cincinnati

Is there a team more devalued below .500 than the Bengals? In a typical tough AFC North they're just a 1.5 back of the first place Ravens. Off a bye week this is a do or die scenario for the Bengals. Cincinnati's come to the notion that they no longer can trust their defense to win games, and has full confidence in Andy Dalton. Look for the Bengals to break through offensively and put together touchdowns versus field goals. They'll win for the second time at Met Life Stadium this season (week one vs NYJ).

Seattle

Attraction of the Patriots has not stopped and why not with the special play of Tom Brady? Seattle has had it's issues against the number, only covering once in the last six weeks. Defensively they've also shown to be prone against the big play. That figures to be a disadvantage for a Patriots team that defeated a more dominant defense in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. Yet, this is a spot where the Seahawks can pose a challenge on the road for a complete game of four quarters. Grab Seattle.

Minnesota +3

Watching the Vikings unravel to three consecutive losses was foreseeable. Teams have forced Sam Bradford to make decisions as the running game continues to suffer. Losing offensive coordinator Norv Turner has only compounded matters. Traveling on the road against a strong offensive team in the Redskins spells trouble. Yet, Bradford has experience as an Eagle against the Redskins and should be able to game manage here efficiently. Grab the Vikings

Texas State +8

Here we have two teams that have seen their value go up/down exponentially. Idaho has showcased a flourishing offense while Texas State has been in shambles on both sides of the football. Yet, this is likely the last opportunity for Texas State senior quarterback Tyler Jones to garner a win. Look for a valiant effort from Texas State.

Stanford -3

Stanford cost us last week narrowly ATS but we'll back them here against the Ducks. The road factor and Stanford's abysmal offense are expected to be vulnerable here on the road. Stanford's defense has also been susceptible to big plays all season long. Yet, the Cardinal keep themselves in games, and that's where you expect Oregon's faltering ways to continue. Grab the Cardinal

Clemson -21

Against a mid-tier conference opponent that has an above .500 record you might be hard pressed to back the Tigers. Yet, Clemson seems to be awakened by a near loss to Florida State. This is the type of late season game where the Tigers need to feel where they're at as they prepare to close out the regular season. Grab the Tigers here to cover the number.