Rarely do you see a 5-0 team an underdog especially with a decisive victory under their belt from last year. Folks haven’t forgot the way the Chiefs tore apart Tom Brady and company to start the season in 2017. Yet 365 days later look for better defense from the Patriots and for the Chiefs to come down to Earth a bit offensively. The only team to take advantage of the Chiefs defense was the Steelers in the second quarter of week two. This go around look for Brady and company to stay focused and to the game plan for four quarters. 

The Denver Broncos are coming off one of the worst road defeats of the season last week against the Jets. Flat offensively and no answer for the Jets ground attack are recipes for disaster against the potent Rams. In the last two weeks the Broncos have surrendered over 350 yards on the ground. Yet there is value on them similar to when they faced the undefeated Chiefs at home. The Rams defense has not been the same. Expect the Broncos to ride their tailbacks and fortune on defense to ride this cover out.

Each and every week the Browns have done what bettors love. Cover. They have covered every game this season with one push against the Raiders. Baker Mayfield and the rush attack has been the story along with a defense that is improving. A third home game in four weeks should pose as a momentum builder for the Browns. Instead one has to look at their miscues and believe that they’ll finally come out against them. Grab the road Chargers here.

The Miami Dolphins were a fourth quarter away from being 4-1. Instead they unraveled offensively and let the Bengals over run them. Now they’ll face a Chicago Bears team that had the biggest blowout this season with a 48-10 victory over the Buccaneers. Yet there is value to be had with the Dolphins based on the Bears bye week. Look for Ryan Tannehill’s health and return from a year off to finally start to pay dividends. Grab the fish.

The Redskins are as banged up as any team possibly could be that has already utilized a bye week. Several starters will be missing on defense and offense which showcased a poor effort as a whole on Monday Night football. Still the matchup against the Panthers is favorable as Carolina is known to play to the level of their competition. Look for Alex Smith and company to get back to over .500. 

Every test this season West Virginia has passed with flying colors. They blew out Tennessee and Kansas State as well as had a nice resume road win against Texas Tech. For Iowa State the unknown at quarterback may help give them the edge they need at home. Third string quarterback Brock Purdy sparked a win against Oklahoma State and has the intangibles to give West Virginia a true test. Grab the home dog Cyclones.

Teams with winning records usually receive an upgraded edge ATS from oddsmakers returning home from a road trip. Out in the Sun Belt that appears to be the case with Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers return home to take on UL Monroe after a three-game road trip. Overall defensively UL Monroe ranks 127th of 130 division one teams. After giving up 70 points last week to Ole Miss the Warhawks enter their third straight road game. Grab the value on Monroe. 

The Huskies have been that familiar team in the top ten for the Pac-12 that have faltered to get over the hump. They’ll have a great chance Saturday in a tough environment against the octane Oregon Ducks. Oregon’s lone blemish on the season was a tough blown loss against the Stanford Cardinal. Off a bye week they’ll have the edge as far as preparation. Yet look for the Huskies defense to rise to the occasion and lead Washington to a victory.

The 1-3 Houston Texans will face the in-state Dallas Cowboys in prime time. While Dallas won’t have to travel far they’ll face a Houston Texans team that’s showing upward signs. Offensively DeShaun Watson appears to be getting back into form from last years season ending injury. Defensively look for the Texans to be ready to limit a Dallas Cowboys team that’s struggled at sustaining offense for four quarters.

Year after year we’ve seen oddsmakers chase a team’s number and fall short. That appears to be the case for the LA Rams whose road and home number just has not been strong enough. They’ll take on a Seahawks team that on paper is 2-2. A play here or a play there and they could easily be 4-0 with losses against the Broncos-Bears. Yet one could also say their two wins against the Cowboys-Cardinals were fortunate. While the Seahawks haven’t shown any signs of who they are the Rams have. They’re not going to sputter and allow the Seahawks home crowd to get into this. Grab the Rams.

The Jets will be without their defensive coordinator who is ill and have sputtered three straight weeks. Consecutive weeks as a public-sharp side against the Dolphins-Browns did not hit pay dirt. Extended rest to face the Jaguars proved to not pay dividends. Back home they should bode better against a Denver Broncos team that did not play well in their lone road game against the Ravens. Grab the Jets as Sam Darnold makes enough plays with his arm to boost the Jets. 

The UNLV Rebels should benefit from a bye week combined with their early season strength of schedule. Losses against Arkansas State and USC both showcased the Rebels potential. Meanwhile New Mexico is coming off a poor loss at home to Liberty. That’s put UNLV in an unfamiliar spot as sizable favorites. It’s not a common thing to see which poses value for Saturday. Grab the Rebels Saturday.

Colorado has planted themselves inside the top twenty-five with wins over Colorado State, Nebraska, and UCLA. All quality wins but also against teams that are not where they expected to be. ASU has had their down to Earth moments with consecutive losses to Washington and San Diego State. Look for the Sun Devils improvement offensively to give them confidence on the road against the Buffaloes. Grab the Sun Devils here. 

Four straight wins from the Buffalo Bulls came to a screeching halt as they were dismantled 42-13 by Army. Now they’ll travel to take on a Central Michigan team that has a tough time getting things going offensively. Junior quarterback Tommy Lazarro has failed to throw for more than 155 yards and the offense is dependable. Yet look for Central Michigan’s defense to carry over the confidence they showcased in the first quarter and parts of the second half against Michigan State. Grab Central Michigan.

The Bearcats will take on the Tulane Green Wave Saturday morning. Tulane comes into this game with sky high confidence after knocking off the octane Memphis Tigers in front of a nationally televised Friday audience. They’ll put the Bearcats defense to the test and will be a popular underdog to start off Saturday. Yet there are always undefeated non top twenty five teams that go under the radar. That’s typical in the American Conference and Cincinnati is a team that will continue to be undervalued ATS. Grab the Bearcats Saturday morning.

The Giants have notoriously been a poor team at home ATS. They’ll face a Saints team that has been nearly unstoppable offensively for three weeks. They lit up the Buccaneers in a week one loss, had yards galore against the Browns, and hardly punted against the Falcons. Many may expect a Giants team returning from consecutive road games in Texas to experience rust. Yet, look for enough spark plays from the Giants and for the first outdoor game of the season to affect the Saints. Grab the Giants. 

Desperation for NFL teams usually translates ATS. Considering the Raiders have been in winnable games each and every week, this would seem like a perfect spot to back them. Yet they’re facing a Cleveland Browns team that was very similar to them a year ago. In games each and every week but falling short. After a taste of a victory against the Jets look for the Browns to continue an unforeseen period ATS success. Grab Cleveland.

Miami has been one of the sloppiest weekly winners in the NFL. None of their wins have been stellar and two were at home against the Titans/Raiders. From an Xs and Os stand point the Patriots have been able to shred the Dolphins for years. It could happen Sunday as well but oddsmakers aren’t going to give out free money here. Look for the Dolphins to finish inside the number here even if down double digits most of the game. 

Oregon looked like a top ten team for three quarters against Stanford before the wheels fell off. Can a team respond the next week in a loss as such? It’s tough to do and I believe will be a difficult task against the Cal Bears. California already has two solid wins on the year against North Carolina and BYU and arguably should be favored in this matchup. Grab the home underdog.

Undoubtedly a poor loss is going to exponentially affect a team’s morale. Virginia Tech is in that boat after losing in all phases to Old Dominion. Compounding matters is the loss of their star quarterback in Josh Jackson. That’s going to put immense pressure on a Virginia Tech defense that must find a way to stop a high impact Duke offense. With their backs against the wall grab the Hokies to respond ATS.

A team that took some bumps a year ago with a freshman quarterback was Georgia Southern. Their woes were evident as they nearly went winless in Sun Belt play. They’ll take on an Arkansas State team that is well known outside of Sun Belt fans as being a solid ATS performer. Consecutive weeks of wins over Tulsa and UNLV would seem like indicators to prepare Arkansas State for Sun Belt play. Especially with three-year starting quarterback Justice Hansen under center. Yet grab the small line on the home underdog as Georgia Southern continues to show new dimensions compared to last season.

Eastern Michigan finds themselves in an unfamiliar spot as a favorite against Northern Illinois. Sometimes a strong schedule can be boosted too high. Northern Illinois has had that with losses against Iowa, Utah, and Florida State. That’s a value indicator for Saturday as Eastern Michigan is being devalued utilizing two quarterbacks. Grab the Eagles here.

Through two games the Arizona Cardinals have been outclassed on their home field by the Redskins and LA Rams. Aside from the Buffalo Bills they’re the only team in football that has not been in the same stratosphere as the oddsmaker’s line. The Bears defense attacked and sacked Russ Wilson several times and put the game away with a pick six. Yet, the Cardinals are one of those teams that needed some time outside of the pre-season to gel in the regular season. Expect a better performance and a home cover on a steep line.

Denver has shown just enough balance offensively and defensively to offset miscues. Victories over the Seahawks and Raiders came with stellar execution in both fourth quarters. The jury is still out on the Ravens whom seem to be lacking an identity offensively and were torched defensively week two by the Bengals. Yet look for the Ravens defense to keep the carry over issues of turnovers by Case Keenum going. Grab the Ravens minus the points.

The New Orleans Saints escaped week two with a victory over the Cleveland Browns. Now they’ll travel to face their first division opponent of the year in the Atlanta Falcons. Strength of schedule has a large factor in this slim point spread by oddsmakers. Atlanta has faced the defending champion and a tough Carolina Panthers team while the Saints have faced Tampa Bay-Cleveland. Yet look for the Saints to continue to get in their own way, grab the Falcons here.

This number continues to go up and rightfully so. Senior quarterbacks often times have a chip on their shoulder against a conference opponent. For Washington’s senior quarterback Jake Browning has that against ASU. Former Sun Devils Coach Todd Graham had his number in disguised defenses that caused Browning’s problems. His freshman year they lost a 17-0 lead and lost 27-17. Last year the Huskies sustained a poor loss in Tempe 13-7. Ignore ASU’s early season success and grab the Huskies to roll here with no mercy.

The Cajun Cajuns continue to have one of the worst defenses in college football. They’ll be put to the test against a Coastal Carolina team with a highly capable senior quarterback in Kilton Anderson. Anderson led an offense that rushed for 333 yards last week against Campbell. Yet look for the home Rajun Cajuns to match Coastal Carolina’s offense, in what should be a miniature Big 12 style result.

A yearly tricky ATS scenario surrounding Florida as a road favorite is their offense. Can they muster enough points in an SEC road environment? One result against SEC school Kentucky already showcased that an issue remains as the Gators lost 27-16. Yet a vulnerability for the Volunteers remains that they play to the level of competition especially in big games. Look for that issue to lurk again creating an ATS grab opportunity for the Gators. Grab Florida.

The Golden Gophers have been a juggernaut ATS to begin the season. At 3-0 they’ll face a Maryland team coming off an embarrassing loss to Temple. Yet sometimes a surprise loss creates carry over ATS value the following week. The Terrapins are never going to be a team that makes it easy, but they’ve grown due to the program issues of the off-season. Look for the Terrapins to cash as slim favorites.

A team that’s surely inflated their value ATS are the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Bearcats have toppled teams in UCLA and Miami Ohio as underdogs for outright wins. They’ll get their second MAC opponent of the year Saturday with a home matchup against Ohio. As great as the Bearcats defense has looked on paper, they’ve had the advantage of playing the right team at the right time. UCLA started a true freshman in Dorian Thompson and Miami-Ohio could not throw a wet ball in down pour conditions. Grab the road value here on Ohio.

When a team that had such a strong run such as the Seahawks struggles, it takes time for oddsmakers to adjust. Market value is not known for the Seahawks and is growing for the Bears. That represents an edge on the Bears side for Monday. Anticipate the three quarters of strong play presented by the Bears week one to carry over at home Monday. Grab Chicago.

Yearly the Giants and Cowboys are showcased on Sunday night football and we get it again for week two. New York as a whole has been awful ATS but has managed to stay in games. Dallas on the other hand is in a pressure situation to produce. Falling 0-2 is not where you would expect a team that looked so dynamic just two years ago. Yet, the Giants have upgraded at positions and should get enough from Eli to cover this small number. Grab the Giants.

Finding value early in the NFL season is tricky. Yet for the Chiefs it lies in multiple areas. First, they were destroyed last year in Sunday Night football by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Second, they’re one of the few teams in football that are starting off with two road games. Last, they’re facing a Pittsburgh team that needs to erase the memory of last week’s tie. Holdouts don’t get discussed ATS but look for Le’Veon Bell’s absence to continue to affect them against the number.

San Diego State’s value has continued to slide ATS. They opened the year with a dud performance against Stanford and followed that up by a two touchdown victory over lowly Sacramento State. Without their starting quarterback the Aztecs must try to contain a confident and now ranked Sun Devils team. This surge in Sun Devil value is not false but the number is. Grab the value on the home Aztecs.

For years Texas State has struggled in the Sun Belt conference. They’ll take on a South Alabama team that has converted to a senior quarterback to lead them. The Jaguars have some talent on both sides of the football to cause problems to a vulnerable Texas State team. Yet, look for Texas State to do enough to cover this double digit number. Grab Texas State.

Kansas pulled away last week after a stunning upset the prior. Now they’ll aim to win in consecutive games as home favorites against the Big 10 Rutger Scarlet Knights. This is a team that appears to be in the right situation at the right time in Kansas. Rutgers has been down trending since their days in the Big East and American conference. Grab the value on Kansas to begin the day.

The Seattle Seahawks made a plethora of moves to get their roster younger. Yet they still have key veterans in Earl Thomas, Russ Wilson, and Doug Baldwin. Denver on the other hand has been a revolving circle for starting quarterbacks and will have Case Keenum under center. Their decision to start Royce Freeman a third round rookie is one of the more under valued ATS movers for Sunday. His ability to hit the hole will aide Keenum in hitting the veteran Broncos receivers. Grab Denver.

Andrew Luck’s nearly year and a half away from football is one that should be proceeded with caution. No doubt the Colts will simplify the offense in order to protect their quarterback from taking unnecessary hits. On the flip side the Bengals have the assets and weapons to attack a Colts defense that has always been vulnerable. Yet, this is where the draw back of retaining Marvin Lewis will lurk. Grab the Colts to capitalize on the 50/50 plays and come out over the number. 

Whenever you see a plethora of people pour on a teams poor roster and future prospects it’s usually a value indicator. Nearly everyone and their mom has been down on the Bills season win total as their quarterback situation looks like the worst in football. Yet sometimes moving forward with youth at the position upgrades the roster as a whole. On the other side Baltimore has been an ATS favorite of sharps-public since their commonality Super Bowl run in 2012. Roster upgrades were done in the off-season and the familiarity of Joe Flacco-Harbaugh still exists. Yet look for the Bills to hang around in this one with enough offensive plays to cover. Grab Buffalo. 

Key line movement that’s noteworthy early in the season typically results in tickets cashed for bettors. Yet I’m leery of that being the case for the Stanford Cardinal. They do possess the experience edge over the talent on the field for USC, but USC showed another gear in the fourth quarter against UNLV. This is a program that’s held itself back for a few years but has had Stanford’s number. Although Stanford has a few days extra rest over the Trojans, look for the value to be on USC. Grab USC.

Cincinnati executed a proper game plan against the Bruins to pull off a double-digit outright road upset. Now they’ll head back to Ohio to take on a familiar opponent in Miami-Ohio. A rematch of last year’s 21-17 victory for the Bearcats. While many will boost the Bearcats from last year’s familiarity there are factors for caution. Miami-Ohio is a more fluid offense than the Bruins at this point and has a quarterback capable of carrying his team on his shoulders. Look for the RedHawks to avenge last year’s loss. 

Sunday, a neutral site matchup will take place in Arlington, Texas as Miami takes on LSU. No team free fell as fast as the Hurricanes did to close out the 2017 season. Three straight losses took them from a BCS contender to a team with questions heading into 2018. Accuracy struggles with quarterback Malik Rosier thwarted the offense. Now a senior look for Rosier and his Hurricane teammates to thrive against the SEC inflated LSU Tigers.

Saturday, SMU will be aiming to win their fourth straight yearly matchup against North Texas. None of the matchups have been close including last year’s 54-32 final. Yet North Texas showcased team growth last year with a 9-3 start. Consecutive losses to close out the year halted their momentum and has created value against an SMU team that has had their number. Grab North Texas.   

Florida International will host the Indiana Hoosiers in a yearly series that has been in order since 2014. Although last year’s game was cancelled due to Hurricane threats. For Indiana they’ll rely on quarterback Peyton Ramsey to push the ball against FIU. Suspended top tailback for the Hoosiers in Morgan Ellison is a blow for the Hoosiers. Yet look for Indiana to once again cover and defeat FIU on the road.

It’s rare to see two teams at 11-5 in the wild card round. Yet, a deep NFC has caused an NFC South matchup. This of course will be the third meeting between the teams with the Saints dominating both over the Panthers. While the Saints went just 3-3 to finish out the season, they have the edge on both sides of the football to handle the Panthers one more time. This line likely would be higher if it were not for the Panthers strong regular season and Super Bowl appearance just two seasons ago. The notion of a team having difficulty beating a team three times won’t be the case here. Grab the Saints. 

At first assessment of Alabama and Clemson my angle was to side with Alabama. Nick Saban’s overhaul of coordinators has been a non-issue for the majority of this season. That in large part was off set by his upper echelon recruits. Yet, Clemson has maintained their core of coaching with long term coordinators in Tony Elliott and Brent Venables. Although Deshaun Watson is no longer a Tiger, Clemson has the determination and better overall coaching to overcome. Grab Clemson to head back to the National title game.

Two teams with division familiarity will square off in the AFC East in the Bills and Dolphins. Buffalo has motivation to finish above .500. Their quarterback in Tyrod Taylor also will be showcasing his skillset as it doesn’t appear that he will remain a Bill. With these two teams just meeting two weeks ago value may appear to be on Buffalo. Yet grab the value on the Dolphins who have a young roster improving heading into 2018.

Road games aren’t supposed to happen in bowl season but that is the case for Wisconsin as they take on the Hurricanes. Some may look at this as a matchup of two teams that were on the doorsteps of the playoffs. Wisconsin’s poor schedule harmed them while Miami’s issues with playing complete games finally caved at season’s end. Even with time off I don’t see the Hurricanes on field issues changing. Grab the Badgers in Miami.

Out of all of the changes amongst college football programs one move remained relatively quiet. Earlier this month the Memphis Tigers and Mike Norvell agreed to a long-term deal to keep him in Memphis. His octane offense is coveted and is one that will be awfully tough for Iowa State to handle. The biggest key in this small number is the durability and explosiveness of Memphis. Grab the Tigers Saturday.

A key injury to Bulldogs quarterback Nick Fitzgerald has skewed Saturday’s bowl line on Louisville’s side. The hype of Lamar Jackson did not wane in 2017 yet the level of Louisville’s play as a team did. Poor defense and less playmakers for Jackson thwarted the teams growth. Look for the Bulldogs SEC defense to keep them in this matchup against the Cardinal. Grab the Bulldogs. 

For the second consecutive season the Sun Belt has been stellar in bowl season. New Mexico State will look to add to the success as they take on Utah State. Yet, the Aggies have one of the worst consistent offenses remaining in bowl season. Unsettling performances down the stretch showcased an offense that lacks the combo running to pass balance. This bodes to Utah State who should outproduce a poor New Mexico State defense. Grab Utah State.

At first review this matchup seemed to be an ASU read. They’ve played above expectations all season and have had Todd Graham’s back throughout the process. Yet this is a poor matchup for the Sun Devils. The youth on the defensive side of the football will be in for a long day against NC State quarterback Ryan Finley. Defensively NC State should be well prepared for ASU’s go to play calls as they’ve seen similar styles from their conference. Grab NC State to spoil Graham’s exit.

Two strong variables are in-line to side with Texas A&M Friday. For one the Aggies no longer have former Coach Kenny Sumlin. Second, the Aggies are traveling to North Carolina the home state of Wake Forest. Yet, the identity of Wake Forest flipped this season from a defensive minded team to an increasing offensive attack. With the layoff of bowl season don’t be surprised for rust to show for Wake Forest. Grab the Aggies.

Thursday’s bowl games are filled with tight lines and little margin of advantages. Yet, I have my eyes on the AM game between Virginia and Navy. In the ACC Virginia showcased an ability to hang in games but not solidify victories, while Navy lacked the defense to contain teams. This should be a matchup dictated by field position and clock management. Look for Navy to control both and too pull out a close victory. Grab Navy.

The Arizona Wildcats were a team the entire country started to back amidst a five game winning and ATS streak. That’s hard to resist in a small bowl game line with an electrifying player such as Tate at quarterback. He’s healthy and the Wildcats have the ability to score 40 plus with him on the field. Yet, defensive game plans have become better against him as the season has gone on. Look for Purdue to employ a solid strategy as well and get the cover.

Iowa’s offensive woes against solid defenses in Big 10 play is a detractor against Boston College. Yet Boston College is a team that may have reaped the benefits of an end of season run. They won five of their last six games against teams that were vulnerable that given week. Look for Iowa to showcase the strength of their 7-5 Big Ten record over BC in the ACC. Grab Iowa. 

Duke was a team that had issues finishing off games. Four of their six losses were by seven points or less. To end the season they were able to correct their errors and roll off two dominant wins against Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. That combined with the MAC’s poor showing with Toledo has created value on Northern Illinois. Grab Northern Illinois to prevail ATS on a key two point move from the original 4.5. 

Examining both the Bears and Browns will offer many comparisons. Both have been in numerous games only to fall apart late. Attraction for the Browns to not go winless is something bettors continue to chase. Yet there has been no balance of play calls offensively which has only become worse with Josh Gordon’s return. This should play into the Bears hands which has been a top five team at sticking to their game plans under John Fox. Look for their discipline and hunger to get a strong win to payoff ATS. 

Under the radar entering the season oddsmakers placed high priority of a slanted home number against the Washington Redskins. After all they had been a juggernaut ATS in prior seasons. That changed for the first two and a half months of this season. That caused a dip in market value by oddsmakers which the Redskins have capitalized on in consecutive home covers. Denver is a team in the same boat. A downgraded offense and defense resulted in nine eight straight ATS losses. Bypass the pendulum shift of oddsmakers and the Broncos holiday road travels. They’ll cover the number for the third straight week.

The decision to shut down Aaron Rodgers was a proper decision by Green Bay management . Uplifting play witnessed in prior weeks by the wide receivers and running backs came as a product of great matchups. Sunday is not one as Minnesota has been a strong force for several seasons against Green Bay. Earlier this season against the Vikings Brett Hundley was confused to the point that Mike McCarthy over simplified the play calls. Look for the Vikings to capitalize again defensively and sure up their offense before the playoffs.

Sometimes in bowl season certain teams just get the right matchup. It’s bound to happen with over forty bowl games. Toledo against Appalachian State appears to be that matchup. On paper Appalachian State had returning the talent run away with the Sun Belt but struggled with sloppy wins and poor cohesiveness. They did finish the season strong but against shoddy competition. Look for the layoff to hurt Appalachian State and the Sun Belt’s current bowl success to hurt them ATS. Grab Toledo.

High value lies with an Army team that’s poor schedule has produced a solid line against San Diego State. Earlier in the season San Diego State had the attractive wins over teams in the Pac-12 in Arizona State and Stanford. Yet, Army’s ground attack and improved defense should cause problems for a San Diego State offense that’s use to relenting defenses of the Mountain West. Grab Army.

Oddsmakers were not fooled by South Florida’s difficulty to win games throughout the season. Their record of 9-2 may have been in similar territory as Texas Tech’s with stiffer competition. Issues Charlie Strong has had in changing over South Florida should be balanced out with the Bulls extended preparation. Grab South Florida to have an elevated look from their regular season play.

Both the Rams and Seahawks are coming off tough losses in week fourteen. Returning home the Seahawks will hope to build on the newfound offense that Russ Wilson has been the catalyst as recently. For the Rams they hope to avoid being swept by a Seahawks team that limited them to just ten points. Curiously in the opening line for this matchup oddsmakers avoided the Seahawks home field advantage over the years. Look for the Rams to take advantage of implementing a better offensive blueprint against a Seahawks team that has masked injuries for over a month. 

From an offensive standpoint the Buffalo Bills have been as poor as any team over the last month. At their worst the Bills were blown out by an average of 26 points weeks eight through eleven. Yet, even with below average offense the Bills have managed to win two of their last three games. With the Dolphins coming off their biggest win of the season against the Patriots look for the Bills home advantage (5-2) to pay dividends. 

A month ago the Lions found themselves down 17-7 before mounting a comeback win over the Bears. It was a game that the Bears let get away as they outplayed the Lions. Last week the Bears ended a five game skid with a dominating road win over the Bengals. Although the Lions have been wildly inconsistent the Bears new look offense of a week ago will not carry over in the division. Grab the Lions. 

One of the poorer lines this season was Dallas as a slight home favorite against the Giants. That’s a factor Sunday along with the Giants story line. For the second time in four weeks they traveled to California. Heavy miles returning home amidst their coach getting fired is distracting. Yet, it’s the Cowboys that have the pressure on them. At 6-6 they need to keep winning to stay in the playoff hunt. Look for a spirited effort from the Giants and a Sunday cover.

In five starts Texans starting quarterback Tom Savage has thrown five touchdowns to six interceptions. With the backfield banged up and defense relenting weekly, value would seem to be on the side of the 49ers. After all Coach Shanahan was able to muster a ball control game plan in last week’s win over the Bears. Look for the 49ers to show imbalance this week offensively and for the Texans to capitalize. Grab the Texans. 

Former first round pick Blaine Gabbert has caught the attention of Bruce Arians with two quality starts. His play warranted a victory in a close loss to the Texans and was the main catalyst in a victory over the Jaguars. A blowout 33-0 loss in London earlier this season offers a revenge spot for the Cardinals. This game boils down to a scheme advantage that fully sides with the Rams. Defensively they have the skillset to counter Bruce Arians offensive adjustments which will showcase why Gabbert is a backup. Grab the Rams. 

A strong schedule often times can create an illusion ATS. Atlanta has been one of the top teams at home over the last few seasons, but continues to find themselves in small home favored spots. The reason why has to due with the strength of their opponents. Minnesota has defied expectations and been one of the best teams balanced offensively and defensively. Their Thanksgiving victory was the early game which added even more rest in preparation of week thirteen. Look for the Falcons to continue to open up their offense as they’ve scored a season high thirty-four points in consecutive weeks. Grab Atlanta.

Sometimes bettors can get into the game of cat and mouse with a particular football team. I’ve seen this first hand in Vegas on the Kansas City Chiefs. They’ve stumbled considerably with three straight losses, yet are still in the lead of the division. That’s placed false value on a Chiefs team that’s not getting the big plays they were to start the season. The Jets may be 4-7 but they’ve managed to be a very dependable team at insurance of a close game. Of their six losses only one was by more than double digits.

In the ACC championship two one-loss teams will square off in Miami and Clemson. The defending National Champions in Clemson are ranked number one in the country. Meanwhile Miami can put themselves back into the playoff picture after a poor loss to Pittsburgh last week. With so much on the line you can expect Miami to be ready to compete at a high level. A level they haven’t showcased all season even in marquee wins. Look for Clemson’s comfort of knowing they have all but secured a BCS playoff spot to come into play from an ATS standpoint. Grab Miami.

It’s highly unusual to see a skewed point spread with two teams with similar records. Yet, that’s the case Saturday as New Mexico State takes on South Alabama. On initial assessment South Alabama seemed like the proper side. In further assessment oddsmakers have placed proper devaluation on a South Alabama team that’s defense has been impacted by drastic offensive decline. Meanwhile New Mexico State has an upperclassmen laden team that has their minds on a bowl game. A squeak close win last week against an Idaho team playing with a third string quarterback impacted this line. Grab the Aggies.

Perhaps no team has slid further back in the Sun Belt than Lafayette. They’ve tried three different quarterbacks to no success, and are coming off a home loss to Georgia Southern. Appalachian State on the other hand finally showed their defensive and offensive arsenal in a standout win over Georgia State. Still, their quarterback in Taylor Lamb does not have the confidence of seasons past. Defensively look for a step back as well against an under rated Lafayette offense.

Non recognition for an undefeated season can be a deflating prospect. Central Florida’s 11-0 season was not enough to put them in the BCS playoff discussion. That combined with Scott Frost’s name drawing attention for open coaching positions can be a detractor for bettors. Instead, look for Central Florida to continue to show composure as they’ve fought through close victories over Navy, South Florida, and SMU.

Stanford gets a bit of a home field opportunity Friday as they take on USC in Santa Clara. This is a repeat matchup from week two’s 42-24 USC victory.  Since starting the season 1-2, Stanford has won eight of nine.  Stanford’s dominance over Notre Dame may cast an improper cloud as USC was blown out by the Irish. USC has the upper hand in all three phases and confidence over the opponent in Stanford. Grab the Trojans.

The Saints travel this season has been all over the place. They’ve played in London and are coming off a swing to Buffalo and home. There’s also eye value as the Rams were in a winnable game against the Vikings until late. A team the Saints were destroyed by to start the season. Still, there were compounding issues to the Rams loss that will carry over even at home. While the Saints may not be their offensive selves in this one look for the Rams ineffectiveness offensively to prevent their cover. Grab the Saints.

Sunday week eleven’s card features an improper revenge spot. Indianapolis is coming off a bye week and has been superb as of late ATS. They covered against the Bengals, Steelers, and defeated the Texans outright. The Titans on the other hand were abysmal in Thursday loss to the Steelers. In their prior matchup the Colts controlled the majority of the game for three quarters. That was a pace that the Titans allowed the Colts to dictate. Look for a flip here. Grab the Titans.

It’s not often a six win team will be a double digit favorite to the tune of twenty plus points. In fact the point spread is within the deficits of loss of Oregon State’s last five games. Yet, this is the right spot to grab the Ducks based on their weekly ascension since the return of quarterback Justin Herbert. Don’t look for the Ducks to hold back on either side as they prepare to be bowl ready.

Over the years the ASU defense has had severe issues against dual threat quarterbacks. That will likely continue Saturday against Arizona. A difference to this year’s team than prior Todd Graham Devils teams is their ability to show perseverance. Quarterback Manny Wilkins has showed the maturation to lead this team, and will give the Devils a boosting seventh win on the season.

Both Appalachian State and Georgia State are 5-1 in the Sun Belt conference. An x-factor here ATS is the fact that Georgia State did not play last week. Based on Appalachian State’s road woes this would figure to be a spot to benefit Georgia State.  In fact in all five of Appalachian State’s road games they’ve failed to cover the number. Yet, that was due to improper carry over ATS value of prior seasons. That’s been corrected here and will bode to Appalachian State.

Towards the tail end of the season there is value to be had against fading teams. Virginia has been competitive throughout the season but from a wins standpoint peaked at the onset. They started the season 5-1, before a current stretch of losing four of their last five. The Hokies are the opposite. They’re a team that were ranked far too high at thirteenth three weeks ago in a loss to Miami. That loss took them a few weeks to recover but expect this in-state game to elevate their play. Grab the Hokies.

The Giants are coming off a home win that featured improved discipline defensively. The win was against a Chiefs team that ripped apart the Redskins defense in a Monday Night Football Showcase spot. Furthermore, the Redskins have been abysmal ATS at home with a 1-5 record. Still, the Redskins are receiving better play from their roster depth that’s had to step up with poor play and injuries at running back and wide receiver. That’ll be the difference in a quick turn around game from Sunday. Grab Washington.

The Giants have been a blood bath disaster for bettors all season. Their lone win was a double digit underdogs on a Sunday night game in Denver. For several weeks folks have been trying to jump on that lone glimmer of ATS value to no avail. After a disastrous season low showcase against the 49ers the locker room is at an all time low. With the Chiefs coming off a bye week they are the less traveled team. Yet, look for the Chiefs in-game woes to continue even against the depleted deflated Giants. Grab New York.

At 5-4 the Detroit Lions have not won in style and all their losses have been close. Consecutive weeks against undermanned teams in the Packers/Browns is going to make their road challenge against the Bears tough. Yet, the Bears are a team that are still over valued based on mid-season play. Though they haven’t left Chicago in November the value lies with the road team Lions.

Blaine Gabbert has officially been named a starter for the Cardinals on Sunday. His experience as a starter is actually far superior than the Texans Tom Savage. That is a factor in a small point spread along with the Cardinals star name talent. Yet this free fall for the Cardinals has been ongoing for two seasons. Expect the Texans to take advantage of a Cardinals team that’s record masks their overall issues. Grab Houston. 

Perhaps the most inflated team ATS are the Arizona Wildcats. After starting the season 2-2 with Brandon Dawkins, they’ve been a different team with Khalif Tate. Under center he has led a 5-1 surge and made Arizona an ATS juggernaut. Oregon on the other hand is just 2-5 in-conference and coming off a blowout loss to Washington. Yet look for Arizona’s primary reliance on Tate’s legs to give Oregon and defensive minded Coach Willie Taggart an advantage. Grab Oregon.

Here two teams are far below .500 in UMass and BYU. Yet both teams have also grabbed wins as of late. With BYU’s impressive ground game it’ll be tough task to limit for UMass. Still this is a spot where a healthy experienced quarterback should pay dividends ATS. Senior Andrew Ford from UMass will not finish his career in a bowl game and likely will challenge this game as one. Last year the Minute Men suffered a 51-9 loss at BYU and will seek revenge. Grab UMass.

Five straight victories by Northwestern has catapulted them into the top twenty five and put them in position for a much higher than anticipated bowl game. In fact their two losses were to top teams Penn State and Wisconsin. Yet look for Minnesota to support the oddsmaker touchdown value here off their downgraded 2-5 conference record. Grab the Gophers.

The disastrous play exhibited by the Broncos offense has trickled over to their defense. Last week the team surrendered 51 points against the Eagles and looked defeated in all aspects. Facing a Patriots team coming off a bye week would seem to be a huge concern for a Denver team that’s lost four straight. Yet, quarterback Brock Osweiler has showcased his best performances in prime time. He’s boasted wins over the Bengals, Colts, and Patriots in 2015. Look for the Broncos to get on track and challenge an inflated number.

The Bengals started off the season going 0-3 before gaining a little trust back with consecutive wins. Yet over their last three games they’ve been outclassed by the Steelers and Jaguars with a narrow win at home against the Colts. With a 1-3 road record (lone win over winless Browns) there is a huge concern traveling on the road against the Titans. Still, Tennessee’s lack of taking care of their opponents early is a deciding factor to weigh ATS. Grab the road value here on the Bengals. 

Mounting injuries and issues at quarterback have drowned the Packers ATS value. Quarterback Brett Hundley has not shown much in dissecting two division opponents in the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions. At home this year the Bears have rose to the occasion with upset wins over the Panthers and Steelers. Coach Fox has done it with brilliant game plans that have attacked opponents offensive strengths. Yet the Bears haven’t had to step out of the box offensively. Look for the Packers to bring forth a proper game plan to attack Mitch Trubisky’s weaknesses.

Sometimes a non power five conference can hinder a teams true rating. A close week one loss against Nebraska took away some thunder for a 5-2 Arkansas State team. They’ve risen their level of play each week and are a formidable top 30 college football team. While South Alabama has talent in certain positions they’re a team fighting transition at the quarterback position. They have not settled in on utilizing junior quarterback Dallas Davis or junior Cole Garvin.

At 2-7 Texas State may seem like a home dog to ride against a Georgia State team that’s played above their capabilities. 4-1 in conference the Panthers have taken advantage of winning the turnover battle to win close games. Nothing comes easy for the Panthers but they’re getting road favorite value here. Grab Georgia State.

It’s not often you see a top twenty five team fade with three consecutive losses. Yet that’s what has occurred for Navy. All three losses have been by ten points or less. Certainly factored into this point spread is Navy’s attempt to halt their skid as well as SMU’s travel to Maryland. Look for Navy’s inability to close out games to continue to haunt them ATS. Grab SMU.

Over the last several years the SEC has struggled against Sun Belt opponents, including last week’s close call for Arkansas against Coastal Carolina. Saturday UL Lafayette travels to Ole Miss and will utilize their third starting quarterback of the season in Levi Lewis. Lewis a freshman showed flashes of a great future in his first start last week in a win against South Alabama. Assuredly he’ll face a challenge but look for Lafayette to hold within the number.

The issue of Ezekiel Elliott’s looming suspension has not been a distraction for the Cowboys. They took care of business in road wins against the 49ers and Redskins all the while not hitting a top gear. Kansas City is a dangerous team but has hit the typical mid-season wall showcased by past Andy Reid teams. Dallas has not had many big tests this season against stiff competition aside from Denver/Green Bay. Look for the Cowboys to pass this time and get the ATS cover.

Perhaps no team has sunken quicker from an ATS standpoint than the Buccaneers, nor has a team rose as quick as the Saints. That pushes forth the first re-upped Saints home value spread in a couple of seasons. While the Saints offense has been in-tune there his a history of the Buccaneers causing issues for Drew Brees. They’ve had an ability to read his over the middle pass routes and I expect the same Sunday. While the Buccaneers offense will likely continue to have it’s woes look for the defense to hold fort. Grab the Bucs.

How disheartened will the Colts be after hearing the news of Andrew Luck out for the season? It’ll likely have a small psychological impact but not as big as the other side with the Texans. Keep in mind this is a Texans team that has had complete disarray at the quarterback position since Matt Schaub was demoted. Look for a deflated home effort and for the Colts defense to capitalize off of Tom Savage and the Texans.

Again we find value in the Pac-12 based on poor conference play. California’s lone Pac-12 victory came against Washington State in convincing fashion. On the other hand Oregon State has been winless in the conference. Yet consecutive close calls against Colorado and Stanford have flipped their ATS value. With California coming off a dreadful performance against Colorado look for the value here on Cal.