Pittsburgh-+1

I was one that was off the Jamie Dixon band wagon amidst his program dysfunction and poor play over the last year and a half. But somehow he has managed to right the ship and fields a veteran team that can challenge any team in the country. They're not going to blow you away with athleticism but have the balance and toughness to throw off a less physical Purdue team. Grab Pitt at +1 tonight.

NBA-Orlando +2

Time and time again we will continue to look for value on teams playing each other again in a short time span. Minnesota lost in a thrilling over time thriller by three points five games ago. Since then the Twolves have bounced back nicely rolling off three wins before Sunday's loss to the Clippers. There are just certain matchups were an opposing team holds that upper hand and I believe the Magic have that with an advantage at the guard position and great interior play from Tobias Harris and Vucevic. People may want to fade the Magic today off of three straight impressive wins and the thoughts of the Twolves avenging the loss to the Magic. I won't here as I look for the Magic to continue playing well and get the ATS cover.

Utah State -3.5

Utah State is coming off an embarrassing Sunday defeat at the hands of Duke. Tonight they have the advantage against a Missouri State team that is still adjusting from the high level of play they had two seasons ago. Grab Utah State as 3.5 point favorites.

11/30 07:35 PM  NBA   (515) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS VS (516) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (11/30 08:17 AM) edit

Take: (516) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 

Reason: Play Clippers -7 Sure the Clippers are coming off an early Sunday game which places this as a back to back scenario Monday night. As I've stated before back to back games are no longer as valuable from an ATS perspective as they were 3-4 years ago. Teams have adjusted and have the utmost care from trainers and team medical staff. Portland is one of those teams that are taken poor shots and turning the basketball over far too frequently to back even against a team playing in a back to back scenario. Back the Clippers.

11/30 06:00 PM  CB   (527) CLEMSON VS (528) MINNESOTA (11/30 11:09 AM) edit

Take: (528) MINNESOTA 

Reason: Play Minnesota -1.5 We've added another CBB play and it will be with Minnesota at home. Minnesota is a team that vastly under achieved last year with seniors all around on the team. Pitino started to mix in his youth more and achieved better overall play. Clemson is a team that has athletes but can struggle at times to produce points. That's where the advantage lies here as the Gophers can flood the hoop with points.

Baltimore +3

            Even though Baltimore will be without Joe Flacco the remainder of the season I'm not going to overshadow that for the prime issues surrounding Cleveland. It's never good when you bounce back and forth with quarterbacks because of injuries and off the field issues. Lets not forget the Browns have been in this same position last year with Hoyer/Manziel and the year prior with Weeden/Hoyer. It has to effect a team, especially a defense that's been poor all year. Baltimore may have a lot of losses but they've battled in every game. We'll grab the Ravens Monday.

11/30 05:00 PM  CB   (525) FRESNO STATE VS (526) OREGON (11/29 09:21 PM) edit

Take: (526) OREGON 

Reason: Play Oregon -11 System coaches throughout the country are boding well. Dana Altman of Oregon has just that as he has found his niche in the Northwest with athletic guards and forwards that all can shoot and defend. Over the years he has lost players such as Joseph Young but just keeps filling in with premier talent. Fresno State can shoot the ball but what makes Oregon the play here is their efficiency on their home floor combined with solid defense. Grab the Ducks

11/30 04:35 PM  NBA   (501) BOSTON CELTICS VS (502) MIAMI HEAT (11/30 08:14 AM) edit

Take: (501) BOSTON CELTICS 

Reason: Play Boston +4.5 Boston is coming off a horrid loss but has a coach in Brad Stevens that has a don't look back at yesterday mentality. Off nights happen in the rigorous NBA and that was the case for the Celtics. The Heat have been a team for the first month of the NBA season that have played a bit above themselves. Look for the youth of the Celtics to hold court tonight against the aging Heat that are reliant on defense. Grab the Celtics

11/29 02:00 PM  CB   (725) CAL SANTA BARBARA VS (726) ARIZONA STATE (11/29 08:44 AM) edit

Take: (725) CAL SANTA BARBARA 

Reason: Play UCSB plus 8 Today we'll be grabbing UCSB plus 8 as they travel to Tempe, Arizona to play against ASU. Bobby Hurley has started the transformation in taking over the Devils with carry over players from the Herb Sendek era. An issue that has plagued the current Devils roster under Sendek and Hurley is inconsistency to play team basketball. That's where I believe the advantage lies with a UCSB team that lacks individual one on one players but makes up for it with true team basketball. Expect the Gauchos to be able to keep this under eight.

Seattle Seahawks -3.5

            Value has finally shifted enough for me to back the Seahawks Sunday. Pittsburgh may be coming off a bye but that's an overrated alleged handicapping advantage. At this point of the season you can find prime value by forecasting playoff teams. This is a great spot for Seattle as they face the Vikings the following week. After weeks of inconsistency offensively and defensively both sides of the football are starting to ascend on the field. That goes a long way for a team that has lost key games by slim margins. Home field and improved play has me on the Seahawks side Sunday.

Houston Texans -3

            The firing of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is not going to turn around anything. Personnel is still horrid for the Saints defense and throughout Drew Brees career he has struggled against physical defensive lines. The Texans bring that too the table which will key Houston. Brian Hoyer has been an underrated starter against mediocre teams. A few seasons ago he had the Browns rolling before a season ending knee injury and did the same last year before facing stiffer competition. The Saints are a below average team that will not have answers for the Texans defensive front. Grab the Texans.

Notre Dame plus 4

Early post before line movement---Subscribers analysis will be added when other plays are finalized.

Florida +2.5

            If Florida had not laid an egg last week against Florida Atlantic this game likely would be Florida -1. I'll side with value here as even though Sean MacGuire is starter he is doing it in a different capacity. No longer has Coach Jimbo Fisher said it's something he'll evaluate. Now with the permanent job I believe MacGuire may handle the pressure a bit differently. Florida will get enough done on offense to cover the 2.5.

Idaho -3

            We will go to the Sun Belt yet again as Idaho takes on Texas State. Texas State has been a peculiar team because they have a solid quarterback in Jones as well as senior running back Robert Lowe. But they're just not the same potent combination that was witnessed a season ago. Scoring the football has been difficult and I believe that'll bode to the home favorite in Idaho. Grab Idaho -3.

Baylor -1

            Baylor may have lost high hopes of a BCS playoff just two weeks ago but that doesn't take away their talent advantage over TCU. TCU played a spirited game last week without Boykin but even with him back you have to wonder how they're going to keep up with the potent Baylor Bears. We'll back the Bears here today to make things interesting if Oklahoma loses Saturday.

Ohio State -1

            Afternoon add. I made a mistake on using Friday as an evaluation day by leaving several tournament winners off the board. I'll add a play that was on with Ohio State. The Buckeyes loss to UT Arlington caught people by surprise but losses like that happen all the time early in the season. This Buckeyes team has plenty of talent and is adjusting to life without DeAngelo Russell. Memphis run and gun style of play is a bit too wreckless. Grab the Buckeyes to play a sound brand of basketball and get the ATS win Friday.

11/26 12:30 PM  CB   (513) CONNECTICUT VS (514) SYRACUSE (11/26 08:36 AM) edit

Take: (514) SYRACUSE 

Reason: Syracuse +5 One thing I've learned over the years is JIm Boeheim enters early season tournaments he believes his Orange team can win. If this would have been a day one matchup I would have favored UConn, but it's not. Kevin Ollie is a mastermind for defensive preparation which has been cut down with a quick day two tournament matchup. UConn played in the late game last night while Syracuse played earlier in the day, which bodes to Syracuse's favor on offense. Syracuse also has great length that UConn's nucleus of transfers will have a tough time adapting to for 40 minutes. Grab Syracuse in the Battle 4 Atlantis.

11/25 06:30 PM  CB   (755) MICHIGAN VS (756) CONNECTICUT (11/24 11:17 PM) edit

Take: (756) CONNECTICUT 

Reason: Play UConn -3 The incredible job Kevin Ollie has done with UConn has gone unnoticed from last year's team to this year's team. That'll gradually change as UConn's 2015 season stretches on. Ollie similar to an NBA franchise added key pieces via transfer that halted last year's team. Graduate transfers in Sterling Gibbs and Shonn Miller now give the team balance offensively that they were missing a year ago. Rodney Purvis has also made significant strides to his game that became evident March of last season. While Michigan may have hold over names from their Final Four run of 2013 and Elite 8 run in 2014, they are unprepared to match the Huskies. Grab UConn

Portland +3

            Something is a bit off with the Bulls currently that we've been tracking on several of our covers this season. Yes they can score but their defense has suffered immensely with Doug McDermott, Aaron Brooks, and the obviously not healthy Joakim Noah. This has led to leads being blown time and time again. On the road against a potent Trailblazers guard heavy lineup I do not believe the Bulls should be favored tonight. Expect Lillard to have his way and for plenty of pick and roll opportunities. Grab the Blazers.

TCU +6.5

            Look for the young Horned Frogs to have a solid battle on their hands tonight against the Rhode Island Rams. Rhode Island to me has severe issues at the guard position having lost Biggie Minnis who transferred to Wright State and EC Matthews who is out for the season with a knee injury. Combine that with their 52% free throw shooting and you have to believe the young Horned Frogs can battle in this one.

Play UCLA -3

Early season tournaments are a great gauge on where a team is starting to settle at. UNLV is loaded with talent that should provide a strong challenge to UCLA. But having the talent edge does not always translate to a win. I'll side with the veteran lineup of UCLA that will be led by guard Bryce Alford and stem UNLV runs with key adjustments.

Buffalo +7.5

            The undefeated Patriots nearly lost a week ago and are having to adjust without two key players. Julian Edelman is out for several weeks and Dion Lewis out for the year. Tom Brady does not have the safety valve out of the backfield he has had in recent years with Woodhead, Shane Vereen, and Lewis this season. I believe that'll cause problems and allow Buffalo to apply more pressure than they did in week two. Remember, in week two the point spread shifted from -2 on the Patriots side to the Bills favored by a point before kickoff. I'm not falling for an 8.5 point swing with the Bills improving and Patriots hurting with injuries. Play the Bills

Green Bay +1

            I've commented a few times this season that the Packers are notorious for 2-3 game in-season lulls. It's happened time and time again for Aaron Rodgers and Mike Mccarthy. Now that the bandwagon has shifted against them I believe they'll snap out of it like they have in years past. Minnesota has piled up the wins but they're doing so with a meager point per game average offensively. Rodgers will get things back and order for the Packers Sunday

Indianapolis +5.5

            The focus for Indianapolis is how they're going to perform with Andrew Luck out of the lineup. It should be but my focus on this play will be the opposing starting quarterback in Matt Ryan. Ryan's play has been horrific over the last four to five games, and I don't see him snapping out of it anytime soon. Atlanta's defense just is not strong enough to support an offense struggling. The difference with Matt Hasselbeck in the lineup over Luck is the turnover battle. The Colts will win that battle and get the cover Sunday.

Play Miami +1

            Tony Romo is going to come back tomorrow and start the Cowboys playoffs surge. Not exactly. Although the Cowboys do welcome Romo back it's going to be tough on the veteran quarterback to upstart a team that has lost severe confidence on both sides of the football. The team Romo is stepping into the huddle with is not remotely the team it was in week two or last year when Romo came back after missing the Cardinals game. Miami has worked too hard on offense and defense under Dan Campbell to lose to an unconfident Cowboys team at home. This is not last season and a miracle to the Cowboys season is not going to happen.

11/22 10:00 AM  CB   (559) GEORGETOWN VS (560) DUKE (11/22 07:31 AM) edit

Take: (559) GEORGETOWN 

Reason: Play Georgetown +6 Yes, Duke has an incredible record at MSG but so does Georgetown. It appeared two nights ago that Duke survived in a win against VCU more than getting an 8 point win. VCU went ice cold and when the shots didn't fall they lost their composure defensively. If there is one area that a John Thompson team will hold their head at it's their defense. After already slipping up against Radford and Maryland this veteran team of Georgetown knows they have to play well today to avoid a 1-3 start. Expect Georgetown's defense to hold tough for 40 minutes and keep this within the number.

(371) Michigan State vs (372) Ohio State

            Can Michigan State put a thorn to the Buckeyes on Saturday? This of course could have been a classic matchup of undefeated teams if it were not for the Spartans meltdown against the Wolverines. I ask you, what would the point spread be if that play did not happen to give the Wolverines the win over the Spartans? Definitely not near two touchdowns. Though the Spartans have not looked the part of a highly ranked team neither have the Buckeyes. Expect the Spartans to battle in this game as if they could take that last play back against the Wolverines. Grab Michigan State plus the 14.

Play Michigan State plus 14

UConn plus 10

            Last week I  avoided posting Oregon as a moneyline play against Stanford. This week I'll recommend a 50/50 wager on UConn ML and with the points +10. There's a reason why the undefeated Cougars continue to get zero respect from the polls and BCS chances. They have a run and gun look that has succeeded in the American conference but they don't pass the eye test. The Huskies have made strides and this is the type of game that can get them to a bowl and carry momentum into next season. Grab the Huskies

Georgia State -2.5

            Last week I bypassed the Sun Belt but we'll head back into it this week as South Alabama travels to Georgia State. South Alabama has been a hot potato team that is off their first winning streak of the season. Still, their defense is a major concern of mine heading on the road against a Georgia State team that has underachieved this season. Expect Georgia State to capitalize at home and take advantage of a South Alabama team that is subpar.

Purdue

            From time to time value just sticks out. Iowa's undefeated season has rose their spread value sky high. But over their last three games their only cover was by a half point over Indiana. High lines against the Gophers and Maryland did not come close to inflated spreads. As this line continues to climb from 20 to now 23 I have to step in and root for 2-8 Purdue, who did play a competitive game against a similar style team in Michigan State.

Furman +18.5

This game has the same feel written to it that we've seen with Maryland/Rider and UT Arlington/Ohio State. The same point spread range against a pesky smaller school. UConn brought in two graduate transfers this season in Shonn Miller and former Seton Hall guard Sterling Gibbs. This will be a test against a pesky Furman team that got hot in the Southern conference a year ago. We'll grab Furman plus 18.

11/20 06:05 PM  NBA   (515) PHOENIX SUNS VS (516) DENVER NUGGETS (11/20 11:20 AM) edit

Take: (515) PHOENIX SUNS 

Reason: Play Phoenix -2 Phoenix showed some guts in a big comeback effort against the Bulls on Wednesday. Chicago was a team hunting for an all around game after stammering a bit over their last 4-5. You could think Denver is in that same boat tonight as the Suns blew them out just days ago in Phoenix. Yet, I'll be looking for Phoenix to replicate a similar scenario they were in when they played Portland twice in a similar span. They held things together and weathered the storm for two wins over the Trailblazers in less than a week. Expect the Suns to do that tonight as well as small favorites on the road.

11/20 05:05 PM  NBA   (505) DETROIT PISTONS VS (506) MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (11/20 11:16 AM) edit

Take: (506) MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES 

Reason: Play Minnesota +2.5 Yes Minnesota is playing in a back to back scenario after an overtime loss against Orlando. 2-3 years ago when the NBA scheduling was revamped you could find value in back to back spots. Now oddmakers and teams have adjusted. The Timberwolves are a young team that should be primed for a successful night at home against the Pistons

11/20 04:30 PM  CB   (573) VA COMMONWEALTH VS (574) DUKE (11/19 09:33 PM) edit

Take: (573) VA COMMONWEALTH 

Reason: Play VCU plus 10 Duke did go down to a strong Kentucky team a few days ago. But to be favored by ten points against VCU is far fetched in my opinion. VCU boasts a strong seven man rotation including key guards in JaQuan Lewis and reserve guard Doug Brooks. The experience with Mo Allie Cox and Melvin Johnson are going to pay dividends against the youth of the Blue Devils. Grab VCU who should be in position all game to stay within this spread.

11/20 04:05 PM  NBA   (501) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS VS (502) CHARLOTTE HORNETS (11/20 11:12 AM) edit

Take: (501) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 

Reason: Philadelphia +10 As part of our three game NBA pass on Friday night, we'll be playing the 76ers. Yes, they're winless but they're not as poor as the 76ers teams of recent years. They have fight to them and I believe they'll be able to stay within this ten point spread against a Bobcats team that has seen their value rise. Grab the 76ers tonight

Iona -9

            Iona's poor 0-2 start has devalued them today against a Delaware team that matches their style of play. Delaware is a team comfortable pushing the basketball but is not as skilled in shot selection or field goal percentage as Iona. At home I expect Iona to get back into their normal routine offensively. Once the first few shots start falling they should be able to storm past Delaware

Play Clippers +7

We'll grab yet another value play in the NBA tonight as the Clippers look to halt the undefeated Golden State Warriors. Golden State has been unstoppable but nearly went down to Toronto at home a few nights ago. We landed a cover on the Clippers a few weeks back as 7.5 point road dogs to Golden State, and have to take the home value on the same number. Grab the Clippers

Central Florida +3

            Central Florida started to have that look of a program moving upward over the last month of last season. Even though UC Irvine returns immense talent at the guard position and quality depth, they have not faced a team with the speed and depth at the guard position like Central Florida. I expect that to frustrate the veterans on UCI and on the road that's tough to maintain for forty minutes. Grab Central Florida.

Buffalo +8.5

            Buffalo is coming off an ugly loss as 10.5 point underdogs to Old Dominion. They're still adjusting to the loss of their former head coach Bobby Hurley as well as the dismissal of leading scorer Justin Moss. Yet there is still plenty of carry over from last year's 12th seeded team that is getting high value today against St. Joe's. Grab Buffalo.

Play Wake Forest -1.5

            Early in the season you'll see teams returning key players gather extra value ATS to start the season. That's the case for a Richmond team that hails several key starters from last year's overachieving team. But I value Wake Forest today. Danny Manning worked his tail off last year to get buy-in from his players, and it's paying off to start the season. They are missing Codi-Miller McIntyre but scoring is not an issue for Wake or the reason we're taking them today. Their improvements defensively are, and will be the catalyst in our cover.

Play Denver Nuggets +6

Tuesday, we are looking at a play on the Denver Nuggets plus six against the Pelicans. Denver is coming off getting their tails handed to them this weekend against the Phoenix Suns. They shot the ball poorly and were out of the game before the end of the first quarter. Though the Pelicans are playing better basketball they're not to the level of play that would call for just a point decrease from the -7 offered to the Suns on Saturday. Value play here on the Nuggets

Play Marist plus 2

            Contrasting styles are easier to disguise in conference play. Outside of conference play though that can be difficult to mask. Dartmouth survives with efficient offense and the ability to win off of turnovers. Marist on the other hand has some athletes and will be able to get the shots they want. Grab Marist as underdogs.

Play Harvard -4.5

            Harvard has had a strong history of playing well against in-state opponents. Even though they lost against Providence I believe they'll bounce back to avoid being swept in-state. Grab Harvard, which should be able to win this game in the high single digits.

Play Colorado plus 1.5

            Colorado is a slight underdog against Auburn Tuesday. They'll face an up and coming Auburn squad led by Bruce Pearl that showed signs of promise in SEC play last year. Still, they lost graduate Antoine Mason and are still a working progress. Colorado may have lost Askia Booker who left early but I believe they're more balanced because of it. Booker took to many of the shots on offense and bailed on the team for postseason play. With him gone the offense looks better with a plethora of guys that have played 2-3 years of quality minutes. Grab the Buffaloes.

Play Nevada +5

            Games past midnight figure to bode well for the Hawaii Rainbows. In the regular season their games typically start in the latest time slots. But for this 24-hour marathon classic I'll side with the value on  Nevada who have the experience and depth to put up a battle against Hawaii.

Play Virginia -5.5

            Today George Washington hopes to pull off an upset against Virginia. Both teams return several key starters from last year's matchup. In that matchup we had a play on Virginia -14 which looked dead in the water at half as Virginia trailed 26-22. The thing with Virginia and Head Coach Tony Bennett is their capability of putting teams in offensive droughts, which they did in the eventual 17 point win over GW last year. George Washington lacks capable shooters from outside to play a full forty minute game against Virginia. Even though Virginia is prone to offensive lulls they'll get enough stops and timely baskets to grab the cover tonight.

Play Vikings +3

11/15 12:00 PM  CB   (731) LIPSCOMB VS (732) DENVER edit

Take: (731) LIPSCOMB 

Reason: Play Lipscomb +3 Here will side with Lipscomb Bisons. The Bisons are 1-1 on the season with a narrow win over Santa Clara and a close loss to Milwaukee. This tournament is hosted on Santa Clara's court and I expect the Bisons depth and 3-guard lineup to have the upper hand against Denver. The line movement has shifted a bit to Denver, but go with Lipscomb.

Play Iona +7.5

Valparaiso does have a size advantage against Iona, but look for the contrasting style to bode to Iona's side. The Gaels push the tempo and will be able to score in transition and in half-court sets. This will be a competitive game but grab the Gaels plus 7.5

Redskins Pick

            The Saints have been a puzzling team over the last month. They've been able to win games against the Giants, Colts, and Falcons thanks to turnovers and rather poor play from opposing teams. Washington has the perception as one of the worst teams in football but have been tough at home. They've won three of their four games and played well enough to defeat Miami in week one. We'll back the Redskins to dictate the style of play Sunday and grab the win over the Saints.

Play UT Arlington -2.5

            UT Arlington caught my attention last season with solid play from their guard Drew Charles and forward Kevin Hervey. They'll pose the same challenges that Fordham faces yearly and struggles against in the Atlantic 10. Back Arlington in an obscure matchup that will cash.

Baylor -2

Baylor faces the toughest part of their season starting with a Saturday matchup against Oklahoma. Losing Seth Russell will surely have an impact on the Bears but they feel they've improved enough defensively to match their potent offense. Oklahoma will be a true test but I'll side with the Bears to pull out the win and cover Saturday.

Play Oregon +10

Play Temple +3

            South Florida has made stellar improvements to turn around a football program that looked in deep trouble the last four seasons. Still, I believe this is a good spot to back a veteran Temple team. Three point road favorites usually pushes a mind set of trap. Instead here I love the value. Back the Owls who should keep winning off of having a turnover advantage.

Play NC State plus 10

Play Colorado State +7.5

            Today's board features two college basketball plays. To start off the day we'll grab Colorado State plus 7.5 against Northern Iowa. Northern Iowa has been a darling team to back early in the season in years past. They'll still be a talented team this season but 7.5 is too steep against the Mountain West Rams. Safe number with high value.

Play Pacific +23

Though the Wildcats have some carry over talent from last year it's going to be a process to start this season strong. This is a value play on the late night cap with Pacific who should hang inside the high teens tonight.

Belmont +5

Often times a mistake made when analyzing a player year to year is that they will automatically grow from one season to the next. Regression does happen often times and that's the outlook I have on Marquette's Head Coach in Wojichowski. He inherited a talented Marquette team from Buzz Williams and faltered mightily with in-game coaching. Belmont is a tough group that will put the young Marquette Golden Bears to the test. We'll take the points on opening night of the season.

Charlotte Bobcats +6.5

Just a little over a week ago the Bobcats throttled the Bulls by scoring 130 points. They were on fire. So tonight you'd expect a revenge spot from the Bulls to blow out the Bobcats. Not necessarily. The Bobcats have hung in with the majority of their opponents lately besides a late third/fourth quarter meltdown to the Spurs. They'll hang in this one on the road against the Bulls. Grab the Bobcats.

San Francisco -3

An under the radar matchup tonight is San Francisco versus UIC. In my opinion this line should be a bit higher on the Dons side. Illinois Chicago last season was a complete mess until the latter part of conference play. As injuries piled up in the Horizon league, UIC took advantage. That won't be the case to start the season against a healthy Dons team who will be able to limit UIC in half court situations defensively. Grab the Dons.

CS Northridge +9.5

This time last season, Reggie Theus was in the process of dismissing countless players off of Northridge. In his third year, Theus has just a few holdover players left from the past coaching regime. He has brought in a lot of transfers including Kendall Smith from UNLV who will be eligible to play this December. Tonight, I believe the value is high on Northridge on the home court of Northern Illinois. They'll need to avoid sloppy turnovers and weather the storm early. Grab CS Northridge.

Play Bills +3

Detroit Pistons Plus 1

            I made the mistake of going against the Pistons Sunday and witnessed them come back from a huge deficit against the Trailblazers. That’s not happening today. We’ll back the Pistons who are bringing A-intensity defensively each and every night. While George Karl has done an admirable job to start the season for the Kings, the flow and pace of the Pistons will be too much.

Atlanta Hawks -11

            Last night the Pelicans grabbed a resounding win over the Mavericks. Dallas may have the biggest issues of a team trying to mesh early in the season than any team in the NBA. Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday did get more minutes for the Pelicans last night but I’m still not impressed with the shot selections of the Pelicans. Atlanta teased the Pelicans the other night and should have no problem with production. Grab the Hawks and don't be alarmed if this moves to 10.5 or 10.

Indiana Pacers Plus 3.5

            Size can be a detriment to opposing teams. Boston is a pesky group with small guards such as Isiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, and forward Evan Turner. While the Pacers have Paul George, George Hill, CJ Miles, and Monta Ellis-----all 6’3 or higher. This seems like an advantageous spot to grab the Celtics after their narrow loss to the Pacers a week ago. Instead look for the Pacers defense to frustrate the Celtics as they did in limiting them to 88 points last week. 3.5 is a comfortable number in which should be a one possession game.

Los Angeles Lakers Plus 8.5

            A narrow point spread loss to the Heat last night may cause people to side the other way with a solid Orlando Magic squad. This is a valuable underdog spot in my opinion with a Lakers team that should be able to catch a couple of scoring drives against the Magic. Back the Lakers

Play Utah plus 6

            Throughout Lebron James career he has struggled playing against Utah. Although it’s only twice a season it’s worthy of noting. The Jazz have big bodies inside that prevent James from creating the way he likes. They’ll also present a problem for Tristan Thompson and Mozgov. Grab Utah to play Lebron and company pesky again and cover the six points.

Play OKC -4.5

            Sunday the Thunder had one of those team games that you can count on carrying over to the next. They blistered the Suns with torrid shooting and did so with uncanny chemistry from the starters to the eighth man. Add to that Durant will have his team uplifted back in his hometown. Don’t be surprised if OKC scores over 125 points Tuesday. Grab OKC.

Chicago Bears

            I rarely play any games ATS for or against the Chargers. But I like the prime time setup for Monday’s game. Both the Bears and Chargers have lost countless games in dramatic fashion. While the praise has been more centered on quarterback Philip Rivers, people are ignoring the quiet production of Jay Cutler. He is making less mistakes by playing more within the offense. The loss of Matt Forte does hurt but Cutler will be able to utilize Alshon Jeffrey and Bennett against a pour Chargers defense. Grab the Bears Monday.

Play Bears plus 4

Add Portland -1.5

Dallas Cowboys

Has Chip Kelly corrected his team’s inefficiencies? No. Dallas may have lost five games in a row but with a win Sunday they’ll be right back in the thick of the NFC East. There last win was over the Eagles in which they controlled the time of possession 2 to 1 with over forty minutes on their side. As many issues as the Cowboys have they have a quiet confidence against the Eagles. Grab Dallas in a favorable position of plus 3.

Play Cowboys plus 3

Play Phoenix Suns +8.5

            Over the years the OKC Thunder have had stellar games from Kevin Durant and Russ Westbrook against the Phoenix Suns. But they also were coached by Scott Brooks during that span. Billy Donovan is the guy now and the Thunder are on a three-game losing streak. Phoenix frustrates opponents as they have a sound backcourt and one of the best big men at stretching the floor in Markieff Morris. Until the Thunder show the ability to play defense I can not back them as 8.5 point favorites.

Play Raptors +2.5

            The Miami Heat have had some of the smallest point spreads in the NBA over their last four games. They were 3.5 point favorites against the Rockets, 3.5 against the Atlanta Hawks, 3 against the Timberwolves, and a point favorite against the Pacers. They split those contests but were fortunate not to go 1-3 as they needed a huge surge to defeat the Rockets. The Heat are getting solid play from Dwayne Wade and timely defense, but I think today they’ll look a bit off against a Raptors team that is playing superb basketball. They’ll bounce back from their loss to the Magic and get the cover Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers +7.5

In any profession a shakeup amongst a team that’s lagged gets reenergized with new pieces. Kaepernick’s poor stretch over the last three weeks produced dismal results. Add to that the 49ers traded Vernon Davis. A season that has little hope left for it will turn to quarterback Blaine Gabbert. I expect the 49ers to play adequately against the Falcons with new life. It likely won’t last beyond this week but this a great opportunity to buy the difference from 5.5 to 7.5. Is a two point spread increase worthy for players such as Kaep and Davis? Not in my opinion. Grab the points.

Giants -2.5

            The string of success by Tampa Bay is enough to lure people on them this weekend against the Giants. Not me. Jameis Winston is still a rookie and has benefitted from a great run game and poor opposing offensive execution. Atlanta practically gifted the Bucs the win last week thanks to Matt Ryan’s awful play. New York may be on a bit of a slide themselves but they’re as potent as they come offensively. Odell Beckham and company should have a big day against the Buccaneers.  Expect Winston to look a bit more like a rookie Sunday.

UL Monroe +10

            For the second consecutive week we’ll be on UL Monroe as double digit underdogs. Troy is catching far too much love after a blowout win on the road as 3 point favorites over New Mexico State and taking Appalachian State to three overtime’s as three touchdown underdogs last week. Monroe is a stubborn team that hangs in games. Troy will come back down to Earth from their impactful two weeks. Grab Monroe.

Cincinnati +9.5

            All great college offenses meet a heads on challenge once or twice a season. You just can’t win every week in college football in landslide fashion with offense. Cincinnati is a confident team that’s capable of sustaining matching offense of the Cougars for four quarters. Cougars sophomore quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is still adapting and may not be ready for a closer than anticipated game. That’ll factor in to the spread as this should be closer to 5.5-6 points. Grab the Bearcats.

Louisiana Lafayette -2

            We were on the opposite side of the Rajun Cajuns last week for a cover. Saturday I look for them to play a strong game against Georgia State. In consecutive weeks they’ve found themselves in a hole because of poor first half play. That can be corrected and I expect Lafayette to finally play a complete game and grab the win on the road. Play Lafayette.

Colorado +16.5

            Full season college subscribers have noticed my love for the Buffaloes. They’ve been on my board countless times this season and there’s a main reason why. Colorado has been the doormat of the Pac-12 since entering and with how strong the Pac-12 is this season oddsmakers are overlooking the Buffaloes. Each week there is value and it’s to be had again at home against Stanford. Note the odd start time of 10AM PT for this Pac-12 matchup. Shaky wins by a top ten team don’t prosper the following week. Usually it’ll take a half to get things refigured out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Colorado have a small lead here at half and hang on to cover a sizeable spread in the second. Grab Colorado.

Detroit Pistons plus 4.5

            I’m buying the young Pistons on how they’ve looked to start the season. They’ve had two days off to mend their first loss of the season against the Pacers. Phoenix has an open court style of play that Pistons Head Coach Stan Van Gundy will throttle. Phoenix is also a dismal home team on Friday nights for whatever reason. Grab the Pistons.

Pelicans plus 3.5

            The woes of the Pelicans are hard to ignore but the Hawks are exactly the type of team they want to face while in a slump. Atlanta’s an efficient team but one that keeps opposing teams in games with their style of play. That bodes to the Pelicans favor at home and in need of confidence. They’ll get a crucial second half run to get the cover for us Friday night.

NY Knicks

            Derek Fisher may not have the type of talent he wants as Head Coach but he is getting the buyback from his core group of players that you want to see. They’re playing sound defense and I like how Fisher is balancing his bench with his starters. Jason Kidd has maybe the toughest task in the NBA juggling minutes amongst a lineup filled with first to third year players. This is a great home spot for the Knicks at just -2.

Play Portland +4

Portland returns home tonight on a two-game road win streak. They defeated the Timberwolves and last night defeated the Jazz. Memphis shook off some rust to handle the Kings easily two nights ago. Yet, Portland is a team with a great home court advantage. CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard are shooting lights out and that will be a tough combination for a Grizzlies team that has been struggling to score prior to Tuesday’s game.

Play Charlotte +4

Charlotte heads to Dallas to take on a Mavericks team that is pleasantly surprised to have Chandler Parsons back in the lineup. His return plus the acclimation of Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews is going to take on court playing time to adjust.  Instances where teams land new veteran starters have showcased opportunistic value ATS. Charlotte may only have one win but they have an uplifting bench and can be counted on to play for four quarters. Look for them to hang in this game against Dallas.

Play Miami -3.5

The veteran laden Heat will be looking to get off to a better start tonight than they have in their last two wins. They found themselves down high teens to the Rockets and then down to the Hawks at home on Tuesday. This should be a great spot for the Heat to pull together as a team against the youth of the Timberwolves. Minnesota has a bright future but also features a team that is prone to turnovers and poor half court shot selections. Grab the Heat -3.5.

Clippers +7.5

We’re finally able to get the inflated line we need to go against the Warriors at home. Recent blowout wins have catapulted the Warriors to a territory oddsmakers will have a tough time with. This game tonight should help calm those worries. Los Angeles added key defensive assets in Lance Stephenson and Wes Johnson that will cause problems for the undersized perimeter Warriors. Golden State will still have their same explosive offense but I look for 2-3 stretches of solid play from the Clippers to key this ATS win.

Philly +9

This game between the Bucks and 76ers is truly a matchup of all youngsters. The Bucks got back a couple of key players with Tyler Ennis and Jabari Parker declared eligible with medical clearance. Parker’s return should reap rewards for the Bucks. I just don’t see the value on tonight’s game in general for the Bucks. Philadelphia showed four quarters of toughness against the Cavs Monday and should against the Bucks as well.

Spurs -4.5

The Spurs continue their east coast road trip that features their third game in four nights. I’m impressed with how well their rotations have meshed together with the addition of Lamarcus Aldridge. They may not be playing dominating basketball yet but the spurts and stretches they do are proving to be enough to cover. They’ll get it done again on Wednesday.

Indiana +2

I have this game as Indiana -3.5. Boston has lacked the intensity we saw from a Brad Stevens led team a year ago. Defensively they have not been the same and offensively they seem to be lacking clear go to players to lean on for points. That combined with a suspect bench leaves the Celtics vulnerable on the road. Even though Indiana is playing in a back to back spot we’ll grab them tonight

Play Grizzlies -4

This line has been drove down and may likely come down more before game time. I'll go the Contrarian angle here as I believe the Grizzlies can bounce back after a horrific loss last night to the Warriors. It was just one of those nights for the Grizzlies who have not been themselves to start the season. I expect them to buckle-down defensively and get back the style of play they've showcased the past few seasons. Take the Grizzlies tonight in Sacramento.

Play Atlanta +3.5

The Hawks showcased a bit of their team style of basketball in a narrow Sunday win against the Hornets. It was a rusty win for a team that has yet to click similar to last season. The Heat on the other hand are coming off a tremendous come from behind win against the Rockets. The Rockets derailed themselves with lazy passes and poor offensive execution. Tonight's matchup is an advantageous game for the Hawks to utilize their team camaraderie in grabbing a cover in Miami. Grab the Hawks.  

Play Phoenix Suns +9

            The Clippers have added piece after piece that has them primed to match the Spurs in June. But we’re in November. The grind of the NBA season typically presents rust for stretches for teams with superior talent. With a young Suns team opposite and former Clipper Eric Bledsoe leading the way I expect the Suns to stay in this game. Getting nine points is far too many.

Play Portland +5.5

            The Trailblazers are coming off back to back losses to the Phoenix Suns. They’re adjusting to playing without superstar LaMarcus Aldridge and also role player Nicholas Batum. That’s caused a few lapses especially in fourth quarters. Today I think they’ll be able to hang with a young Timberwolves team. As well as the young group of Timberwolves have played you have to expect a downturn. Grab the Trailblazers tonight.

Indianapolis +7.5

The drastic jump of oddsmakers hike in value on the Panthers is alarming. Yes they’ve won ten straight but they have not been a team that necessarily blows teams out. I think the value here is on the Colts. For as bad as they’ve played the last two weeks they still have only lost by a touchdown or less. Don’t fall for the back to back prime time lure on the Panthers. Grab the Colts.

Play Spurs -7

            San Antonio played rusty last night and still was able to cover the spread against Boston. They did it with great half court defense which throttled a young Celtics team that is very similar to the Knicks. In years past the Spurs have been offensive juggernauts at Madison Square Garden. Minutes were reduced last night with key players such as Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli to pave the way for tonight. Grab the Spurs

Play Cleveland -13

            It’d be easy to mark this game as a typical NBA downtrodden approach from the Cavaliers. They’re clearly the front runner of the Eastern Conference and the 76ers are permanent cellar fixtures. I just can’t back the 76ers at all even as home underdogs of thirteen points. Cleveland’s core group of talent may not be capable of winning this high of a spread based on offense but they surely can with their defense. This is a game at half that the Cavs should be up in the mid to high teens and I expect the role players to continue the score higher in the second-half.

Denver plus 3

Shop around to find the plus 3’s out there, or if you have to buy the hook. This should be everything it’s planned to be and more. Green Bay has the best quarterback in the league and a defense that has shown tremendous growth. The headliner that has drawn Green Bay as a road favorite is the poor play of Peyton Manning. Hey folks, get over it. Manning is who is he at this stage in his career and his team has adjusted. Frankly it’s shocking to me that people still have not seen the odd value shift from the Broncos a season ago to now. Last year they were favored by near double digits every game with a horrid defense and failed to cover repeatedly. This season they’ve been low favorites the majority of games with a top tier defense and keep covering the number. I’ll back them at home as the same recipe of strong defense and timely offense will key the win for the Broncos.

Play Magic +7.5

Play Miami -3

Play Celtics +5.5