Georgia State +3

Oddsmakers are anticipating a close game here as both teams have battled injuries amongst their teams in particular at quarterback. This will come down to the better defense which sides with the aggressive linebackers of Georgia State. Grab the plus 3.

Cavaliers

Cleveland looks to bounce back after a loss to the Pacers on Wednesday. In the matchup LeBron sat out for rest and JR Smith didn't play as well. This is a spot where a sizable line may look favorable for the underdog. After all the Pistons size and team skill posed problems for the Cavaliers in the playoffs. Yet, the Pistons bring a different level of play out of the Cavaliers especially from the three point line. Grab the Cavaliers to go on a patented second half run and pull away from the Pistons.

Texas A&M

Re-tooling is something the Texas A&M Aggies prepared for last season even while starting four seniors. That's hard to do and one USC has struggled with as they've continually shuffled a new lineup each of the past three seasons. Grab the Aggies here to show the strength of their roster.

SMU

Two teams that were superb yesterday battle in MSG for tonights' 2KClassic championship. This is a rematch of last year's matchup in which SMU blew out Michigan. The notion here may be to jump on Michigan which looks refreshed with a new core of talent. Yet, SMU is an underrated defensive team, especially against perimeter oriented teams. They'll get out in transition similar to last season and win the 2K Classic.

Northern Kentucky

The Colonels are a team that has lost a bit since their strong run as a fifteenth seed a few years back. They'll be up for a tough challenge against an Austin Peay team that scores in bunches. In a line that is minimal will side with the home Colonels.

Bulls

The Chicago Bulls look to continue off their strong win against the Portland Trailblazers. In it they did not need much defense as the Trailblazers were cold. With injuries in their lineup facing a healthy Jazz team figures to be troublesome. Yet, Utah has tricked bettors as of late with hot/cold runs with the ability to control the pace of games. Here, I like Chicago's pace to dictate tempo and continue their road trip success.

Temple

There's no doubt that the Temple Owls have lost a bit each of the last two seasons. Former Atlantic 10 representative will take on UMass in an old rivalry. This rivalry is not forgotten and I expect the close point spread to be indicative of the outcome. Grab Temple to pull within the small number.

Charlotte

It's certainly odd to see Charlotte as a favorite at any juncture this early in the season let alone against an American conference opponent. Charlotte took it's licks last season as Mark Price took the reigns over on a program that struggled with solid talent the year prior. Now in his second year your starting to see the 49ers blossom a bit. East Carolina has a core group of talent that's played beneath their talent level. Look for the 49ers to capitalize on that Thursday.

Cleveland

The Cavaliers played a neck and neck game on their home floor against the Toronto Raptors. Defensively the Cavaliers struggled to contain the Raptors and one would figure more of the same in a back to back scenario against the Pacers. Yet even with an improved roster the Pacers have been prone to offensive droughts. Grab the Cavaliers to pull a close one off ATS.

Cincinnati

Is there a team more devalued below .500 than the Bengals? In a typical tough AFC North they're just a 1.5 back of the first place Ravens. Off a bye week this is a do or die scenario for the Bengals. Cincinnati's come to the notion that they no longer can trust their defense to win games, and has full confidence in Andy Dalton. Look for the Bengals to break through offensively and put together touchdowns versus field goals. They'll win for the second time at Met Life Stadium this season (week one vs NYJ).

Texas State

Over the last several years Hawaii has been a strong team to back early in the season. One, they always host tournaments and two, the time zone change is a prime factor for college athletes.

Yet, Texas State is a matchup problem for Hawaii. They have a similar style of play and I do not expect a tournament lull from them here. Grab the points with the Bobcats.

Seattle

Attraction of the Patriots has not stopped and why not with the special play of Tom Brady? Seattle has had it's issues against the number, only covering once in the last six weeks. Defensively they've also shown to be prone against the big play. That figures to be a disadvantage for a Patriots team that defeated a more dominant defense in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. Yet, this is a spot where the Seahawks can pose a challenge on the road for a complete game of four quarters. Grab Seattle.

Texas San Antonio

Texas San Antonio's has went through a bit of a down period, and will be catching a steep nineteen points on Sunday.

Oregon State has shown the ability to pull off upsets within the Pac-12 but are still a program that will skirt on the outside of the top fifty in college basketball.

In a forty minute game expect Texas San Antonio to fight and creep within this number late.

Bradley

Quick turn arounds don't happen too often at the mid-major level. Yet, former Green Bay Coach Brian Wardle has done that in his second season at Bradley. After severe struggles last season the team showed the type of spark at the tail end that you look for. Delaware on the other hand is a veteran team that does not have the right makeup of players to contend with the Braves. Grab Bradley here.

Minnesota +3

Watching the Vikings unravel to three consecutive losses was foreseeable. Teams have forced Sam Bradford to make decisions as the running game continues to suffer. Losing offensive coordinator Norv Turner has only compounded matters. Traveling on the road against a strong offensive team in the Redskins spells trouble. Yet, Bradford has experience as an Eagle against the Redskins and should be able to game manage here efficiently. Grab the Vikings

Houston Rockets

After a five game road trip the Rockets host the Spurs. The Spurs shook off the cobwebs of their home woes last night defeating the Pistons. As expected Coach Poppovich utilized the Spurs bench to preserve minutes for tonight. That, a 4-0 away record, and revenge for the Spurs losing as 8.5 point underdogs to the Rockets serve as value on the Spurs side tonight. Yet, this Spurs team is not a crisp as it was to start the season. Grab the Rockets as slight underdogs here.

St. Joseph's

Replacing two top scorers has left St. Joseph's vulnerable for offense. This seems troublesome against a MAC Toledo team that is solid in transition and half court sets. Yet an issue that hurt Toledo last regular season is their poor defense. This is where X's and O's can trump on court talent. St. Joseph's will have the proper game plan and cover the small number.

Texas State +8

Here we have two teams that have seen their value go up/down exponentially. Idaho has showcased a flourishing offense while Texas State has been in shambles on both sides of the football. Yet, this is likely the last opportunity for Texas State senior quarterback Tyler Jones to garner a win. Look for a valiant effort from Texas State.

Stanford -3

Stanford cost us last week narrowly ATS but we'll back them here against the Ducks. The road factor and Stanford's abysmal offense are expected to be vulnerable here on the road. Stanford's defense has also been susceptible to big plays all season long. Yet, the Cardinal keep themselves in games, and that's where you expect Oregon's faltering ways to continue. Grab the Cardinal

Clemson -21

Against a mid-tier conference opponent that has an above .500 record you might be hard pressed to back the Tigers. Yet, Clemson seems to be awakened by a near loss to Florida State. This is the type of late season game where the Tigers need to feel where they're at as they prepare to close out the regular season. Grab the Tigers here to cover the number.

Cincinnati +11.5

Undoubtedly the Bearcats have tailed off as far as any team in the country from where they were two even three seasons ago. Central Florida on the other has shown what hard work can do for a program in a short period. Yet, this line is a bit too high for my liking considering the up tempo game expected here. Grab the Bearcats.

Undoubtedly the loss of Stacy Davis to graduation for Pepperdine is an irreplaceable starter in a conference such as the WCC. Yet, small schools that retain three to four year players find their ways through checks and balances. Pepperdine boasts seniors Jett Raines, Lamond Murray Jr., and Jeremy Major. Cal Poly on the other hand is a program in decline from the promise they showcased two seasons ago. Grab Pepperdine.

Cal Irvine is a respectable program that has done a solid job at recruiting under the radar recruits. They've also pulled off some quality upsets over the years. Yet, they've been slow out of the gates before getting things into gear. Losses to UofA, Texas-Arlington to name a few off the top of my head. Sometimes coaches will over emphasize a good start to a season and get into their own players heads. Grab the value here on Utah State.

UCLA once again meets Pacific a team last year they were 14.5-15.5 point favorites against. This year the line has climbed which would figure to bode to the underdog. Yet, in the game last year UCLA toyed with Pacific and handled them with ease defensively. Grab UCLA to pour it on from last year's showcase.

Spurs -8.5

The Detroit Pistons value thus far ATS has come with a strong home record. On the road they've been abysmal as their offense is lacking an identity. If it's not Andre Drummond in the post, it's usually an errant shot from Tobias Harris or a wing player. This plays into the hands of the Spurs that have a shocking home record below .500, but have also played teams such as the Jazz, Rockets, and Clippers. Grab the Spurs here.

New York Knicks +5.5

Everyone is waiting for the Celtics to showcase the skill we all expected. Expectations can be the biggest downfall early in the season for attractors ATS. Frankly, this Celtics team is not a top team in the East at the moment. Signs were shown in the playoffs and was the main reason Danny Ainge revamped the roster. The Knicks on the other hand have played three consecutive games of a tale of two-halves basketball that may detract people here on the road. Instead, grab the Knicks to carry over the momentum of a comeback home win against the Nets.

Orlando Magic +5

Utah's revamped team has shown to play better offense, but a long road trip appears to have worn on them. Lets not forget Gordon Hayward made his return against the Knicks, and the Jazz have implemented a deeper rotation minutes wise. It's the same scenario the Magic have struggled with, including a steep home loss to the Timberwolves in their latest game. Yet, grab the Magic here to showcase offense against the Jazz.

East Tennessee State was one of those teams last year that maybe had too much talent at their disposal. They upset teams such as Green Bay and Georgia Tech, but faltered when you least expected. Exposure at the end of the season saw a team that started to figure it out. Although Fordham has become a more respectable A-10 team this is an opening game they'll struggle in. Grab East Tennessee State.

Here is another steep number to start the season as College of Charleston takes on Citadel. Both of these schools are close in-state in South Carolina. The contrast of styles is one that oddsmakers have pointed out with a sizable line. Citadel's struggled over the years to put up points even during the new rules change last season. Grab Charleston's tempo and factor to win against a close college to pull through here.

Sometimes turn arounds under a program with a respectable Coach can be a bit exaggerated. Frank Martin got the most out of his South Carolina team last year especially in non-conference play. Opening against Louisiana Tech is a much higher step up than opponents they faced in non-conference last year. Grab Louisiana Tech who has always been a team to play respectable teams in non-conference and fare well against the number.

Both Marquette and Vanderbilt lost big man in the interior. You'd expect the advantage here to lie with Marquette as they have speedy guards and solid shooting. Yet, two years ago Coach Wojo struggled to lead his team in close games. That was a bump they cleared at a better rate last year. Expect Marquette's old ways of not closing games to lurk big on a small number. Grab Vanderbilt.

Sacramento

During the Kings road trip a week ago they could not get out of their own way in losses to the Heat, Magic, and Bucks. Yet a Sunday win against the Raptors in Canada has boosted their confidence. Sometimes teams return home from a long road trip and play sloppy in their first game. The Kings did so against a winless Pelicans team but still managed to cover the number. In a prime time network game people are always quick to remember their last visual of a team. The Lakers knocked off the Warriors in impressive fashion. Play the contrarian angle here on a Kings team refreshed and focused in a new arena.

New Orleans +4.5

The Pelicans continue a road trip after losing both games in California to the Warriors and Kings. 0-8 and traveling to Wisconsin figures to be a poor outcome for the Pelicans. Instead I've seen a team that has been in a handful of their losses. They were competitive in both games against Golden State, a game against Denver, their latest loss to the Kings, and played in two overtime games. The Pelicans may falter again in a close affair but they'll cover the number.

NY Knicks -8

The Nets come off an impressive home win last night as five point underdogs. They defeated the Timberwolves with efficient scoring from a plethora of players. Traveling from Brooklyn to Manhattan figures to be as minuscule of a road factor in a back to back scenario. Yet, I like the Knicks veteran lineup and leadership to get back on track from an early Sunday loss to the Jazz. Grab the Knicks here.

Memphis

Attraction on Memphis is hard to calculate. They've dealt with injuries upon injuries and now Mike Conley is questionable for Tuesday's game. Chandler Parsons return on Saturday did not fare as well as planned as he went 0-8 from the field. With scoring balance in doubt the notion would be to take the Nuggets here who just put up 123 on the Celtics. Yet, this is a conference matchup where both teams have advanced scouting on each other's rosters. Take the Grizzlies to wear down a Nuggets team that is playing their sixth of seventh road game to start the season. 

Phoenix +3

The Lakers are at their highest value ATS since Kobe's last healthy season. After a big win over the Warriors in front of a national televised audience the Lakers must maintain focus with a young team combined with new Coach Luke Walton. I expect both the Lakers personnel on the court to have a letdown but also Coach Walton after an emotional high defeating his ex-team. An added bonus value here is the fact that the Suns are on on of the oddest road trips in recent years. Phoenix traveled to New Orleans on Friday and now back to LA before a Tuesday game in Portland. A noteworthy fact pointed out by long-time Suns color commentator Eddie Johnson, who does not ever recall a trip as such. Yet, the Suns offense seems to be gaining steam as Earl Watson configures more minutes for TJ Warren, Brandon Knight, and rookie spark plug Marquesse Chriss.

An East coast road trip figures to detract value on the Denver Nuggets. In fact last year the Nuggets were down by twenty points in the fourth quarter at Boston before rallying back for a backdoor cover. This is a scenario where you would expect an improved Boston roster to thrive at home. Instead grab the value on the Nuggets having learned last years matchup.

Typically you won't see a team favored by a high amount after a loss but that's the case here with the Packers. Indianapolis just has not answered the bell when facing teams that are not subpar record wise as was the case against the Texans, Broncos, and Chiefs. Throughout all of Green Bay's issues with injuries they've developed their offense. The Colts have also received stellar play from Andrew Luck even in losses which further devalues them with an expected rise in turnovers.

Both the Panthers wins this season have come against NFC West opponents in the 49ers and Cardinals. You'd expect that to continue against a Rams team that has shown no signs of turning the page lately. Still, the Panthers execution on both sides of the football devalues them in my opinion on the road. Look for the Rams to implement safe short throws similar to the Saints/Falcons which the Panthers have struggled to defend. Grab the Rams.

Utah -1

Utah here as a small favorite has all the variables to take the home Knicks. First, the Knicks are riding an emotional high as ex-Bulls D. Rose and Joakim Noah upset the red-hot Bulls in Chicago. Utah, on the other hand detracted value with a poor home loss to the Spurs. Flying across the country to New York for an early AM game with daylight savings change over is another variable to side with the Knicks. Instead, we'll take the Jazz who have been a hot-potato offensively but should come to life against a poor Knicks defensive team.

Down in Baton Rouge I'll side with the value of an Alabama team that's caught the right side of the number consistently this season. Breaking down those covers the inflated lines grew to the Crimson Tides favor in large part due to special teams or defensive touchdowns. LSU not only has the size to contend with Alabama but I also believe they themselves can come up with an outlier play to turn the tide on Bama ATS. Grab the eight points here.

OKC

After a big letdown loss against the Warriors, the public/sharps likely will look to fade the Thunder here against a Timberwolves team that has great depth. Especially with the fact that this Timberwolves team upset a better OKC roster as 14 point underdogs last March. Yet, this Timberwolves team is faltering to find offensive balance with a solid inside-outside game. Part of that has been due to utilization of Kris Dunn/Tyus Jones who are adjusting to the NBA. Grab the Thunder to bounce back nicely and improve to 5-1.

I've stated all season that oddsmakers have had issues with UL Lafayette. They have the talent on both sides of the football to be sizable favorites at home, but haven't fit the role of earning that label. In fact, they've been six point favorites or less at home in nearly all of their match ups. Turnovers have plagued them all season and Idaho is a team that has done well in converting turnovers into points. Grab Idaho to be the latest to drive oddsmakers nuts on Lafayette.

Similar to the NFL in CFB you can catch some eye-popping value on re-evaluated teams. Stanford's season isn't anywhere near expectations, while Oregon State has shown the ability to play within the number against both Boise State and Utah. Folks also probably remember the Cardinal losing momentum in last year's second half against the Beavers. Yet, the Beavers offense has not looked the part to sustain four quarters against the Cardinal. Grab Stanford.

Perhaps no conference has witnessed more instability from the top to bottom than the ACC. Wake Forest and Virginia exemplify that with inconsistent play on a weekly basis. Here I see a bit of devaluing on the Demon Deacons off a poor loss to Army. A game they let swing the opposite way at home with poor execution in the latter stages of the third/fourth quarter. Sometimes playing a non-conference game that late in the season can throw a team off. Grab the Demon Deacons to refocus Saturday and catch a Virginia team that has come full circle from an oddsmakers perspective from their early season struggles.

 The irish are the Forrest Gump of college football as you never know what you're going to get on a weekly basis. Yet, holding off a talented Miami team created value this week against the feisty Midshipmen. Rather than believe the Irish are setup to get in their own way Saturday, I believe they'll put together their first complete game. It may have took until November but the Irish take a step forward Saturday.

Georgia State

Georgia State is a team far less potent than last year's team. Yet, they are showing a bit of growth on a week to week basis that points to trending upward. Arkansas State on the other hand may be a flash in the pan in my opinion. They stomped on Monroe last week, defeated South Alabama handily, and caught a backdoor cover/win against Georgia Southern. Those are eye popping and attractive with a small road number. Today though I'm leery of their defense/offense continuing on the upward path on the road. Grab Georgia State.

Sacramento

Sacramento continues their road trip traveling to take on the Magic Thursday. While Sacramento did run out of gas in their last game, I still like the floor spacing and offense they've showcased thus far. Orlando on the other hand did show life in a comeback win against the 76ers. Still, the better team chemistry lies with the Kings who should get enough from Cousins/Gay and complimentary scoring to get the cover Thursday.

Thus far the Trailblazers and Suns have been teams unable to play four full quarters of basketball to start the season. Portland's came back to defeat the Jazz/Nuggets while faltering to higher caliber opponents in the Clippers and Warriors. Phoenix on the other hand has been competitive after a blowout opening loss to the Kings. Yet, this is a spot where a young Suns team can show some growth. Last year to start the season they lost twice to the Trailblazers in the early portion of the season. Look for the Suns to capitalize from an ATS standpoint as the Trailblazers play in a back to back scenario.

Brooklyn

Were aiming for a value play on Monday. Chicago comes in with two victories over revamped quality teams in the Pacers and Celtics. The value here is opponents based. Brooklyn has also played the Celtics and Pacers to start the season and faced steep deficits in both. They did rally to beat the Pacers in the exact same spread as tonight's six point line. Look for backers to over react to the Bulls blowout win over the Pacers on a line that looks 'pleasing'. Grab the Nets.

Philadelphia

The Cowboys are coming off a bye week in which momentum is on their side. Yet, they've played close games in their division this season against the Redskins and Giants. There's also reason to believe Dak Prescott may not be able to shield the pressure of the Romo whispers further. Philadelphia is a team that can win in various ways and has scored an unconventional touchdown in three consecutive weeks. Grab the Eagles here.

The Clippers and Jazz both have done an excellent job at building their rosters with depth. That's not easy to find throughout the NBA. From an ATS standpoint though the Clippers appear to have bought in to playing team defense. It's a catalyst that combined with their potent scoring is worthy of backing as a steep home favorite. Grab the Clippers.

Detroit +2.5

Is there a reason why Houston is favored here? The home angle is one. Another may be Detroit's way of playing in close games. Can Matthew Stafford deliver the same theatrics on the road? I believe so as the offense has continued to rise on a week to week basis, especially with the implementation of Golden Tate. Grab the Lions here.

Portland +2

Denver at home is always an x-factor ATS. In an odd scenario the Nuggets have had three days off since their first game in a victory over the Pelicans. The rest and first game at home our factored into this spread. After a loss to the Clippers in which the Trailblazers were outplayed in bench points, one has to wonder if the Nuggets deep roster will give the Blazers the same fits. Instead, side with the cohesive starting lineup edge of the Blazers who should benefit from a bit of rust from the Nuggets.

Clemson -4

Clemson hasn't won pretty this season in games that you'd expect that to do so. Yet, they are still undefeated and have a key win over a Louisville team that Florida State struggled against. This just isn't the same Florida State Seminoles team of years past. This is a spot where the point of the season bodes to Clemson's side ATS. They know what they're capable of when playing at peak levels and what can happen if they play sluggish football. Look for Clemson to learn from last year's rusty performance against FSU to make the necessary plays to get us the cover.

Memphis -6.5

Memphis Coach Mike Norvell has quietly got the Memphis program going in the right direction. Keep in mind this was a program that lost several key players from last years ranked team including quarterback Paxton Lynch. Tulsa plays a similar action packed brand of football but Mike Norvell's is relentless with more layers. Grab the Tigers Saturday.

ASU +9.5

Last week we covered with the Sun Devils who had to use their fourth string quarterback. That was not expected, this week it is assured. Therefore, oddsmakers have had no choice but to put out a sizable number. Yet, ASU's defense has performed much better than the stats show the last three weeks. This is a game where ASU can run the football at will and rely on a big play or two defensively. Grab the Devils.

Georgia State +5 

South Alabama did cover the number in their last game against Troy. Yet, glaring issues with why they've struggled this season and ATS lurked as they blew a home lead. Georgia State on the other hand has talent level above their record achievement. Grab Georgia State to cover here.

Atlanta -7

Change over isn't supposed to be a seamless transition. Yet, the Hawks elevated pieces that were in place with point guard Schroder, forward Mike Muscala, and Tim Hardaway Jr. Interior experienced advantage with Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap will be too much for four quarters for the youth of the 76ers.

UConn +7

UConn's been a distrustful team compared to the upward trend they showcased last season. Their defense has not been able to support them on a weekly basis similar to last year's game plans. On the road against East Carolina figures to be too steep of a challenge yet again. Still, this is a game where UConn can get enough going offensively to stay within this number. Grab the Huskies.

Detroit

Both Detroit and Orlando had awful outings in their first matchup. Yet, the Pistons fought back to some degree against the high scoring Raptors. Orlando, on the other hand looks like they have on-court chemistry issues combined with adjusting proper five man rotations. Grab the Pistons who will use their home court edge and sideline experience of Stan Van Gundy.

Charlotte -2

The Bucks are certainly a team on the rise that looks to return to form of two seasons ago. Now healthy for the most part they seem poised to challenge for a bottom seed. Yet, Charlotte is a team that blended well last season as their youth began to shine next to Kemba Walker. The losses of Jeremy Lin, Courtney Lee, and Al Jefferson may be a detractor but I believe the new depth is ready to step up. Grab the Hornets.

Miami +4

In the span of three years the Heat have went from fielding LeBron, DWade, and Bosh to having a team expected to miss out on the playoffs. Pat Riley made no qualms about waiting to attract prime free agents, besides retaining Hassan Whiteside. Orlando on the other hand seems ready to ascend forward with the youth at their disposal. In fact, they added veterans Serge Ibaka, Jeff Green, and Bismack Biyombo, and Jodie Meeks in the offseason. Yet, for an opening game look for Coach Spoelstra's defensive minded team philosophy to trump the home Magic. Grab the Heat.

Portland -5

Both the Trailblazers and Jazz made off-season moves to bolster their rosters. Last season Utah was a team that had sporadic play last due to injuries and unsettled play at point guard. They believe they've alleviated those issues which should elevate their play based on solid defense. Yet, Portland is one of those teams that goes on surges versus spurts offensively. Grab the Trailblazers here.

Pittsburgh +7.5

This is an interesting point spread as it's the same as last year's opening game when New England was at home. Obviously with Landry Jones inserted many people would expect the type of rust he showed in starts last season. Yet, I believe Jones is more prepared this season and can spark an offense that was completely out of sync last week against Miami. The biggest outlier here is the fact that this may be week seven but it's week three for Tom Brady. The Steelers defense should be in mid-season mode to get after Tom.

Miami +3

There's no denying that the Bills have dominated the Dolphins in the regular season for a long time. In fact, Ryan Tannehill may perform his worst on an annual basis in terms of turnovers against the Bills. Still, I like the vibe coming from Miami as they have gutted it out by going with young players that have hunger to be on the field. That says a lot and a big win over the Steelers is where you would expect a momentum builder. Buffalo is at it's peak value currently ATS. Will go opposite here with the Fish.

Kansas City -6

The Saints come back win over the Chargers and win holding off the Panthers do not have oddsmakers fooled here. It doesn't with me either. New Orleans quick passes do work for two to three quarters. It's the fourth quarter where defenses can clamp down which forces three and outs. When you can't keep the clock moving on the road it spells disaster. Grab the Chiefs balance to cash as touchdown favorites.

ASU +7.5

You can't fault oddsmakers for having a hard time with the number against ASU. They have had instability nearly the entire season at quarterback, and statistically have one of the worst defenses in terms of yards per play. That figures to be a huge issue against Washington State's vaunted passing attack, correct? After all, last season at Washington State it was post half-time adjustments from Mike Leach that allowed the Cougars to upset the Devils.

Yet it's a different ball game when your the favorite after exceeding expectations with dominating wins over Oregon and Stanford. Look for ASU to play this game safe defensively which should allow for a close game in the fourth quarter. Grab ASU to sneak under the number.

UL Lafayette -5

Down in the Sun Belt the Rajun Cajuns travel to face Texas State. In past seasons Texas State has been a quality team to back ATS led by their senior quarterback Tyler Jones. Yet, in sports we often see collegiate athletes in major conferences sputter during their senior seasons. It's hardly seen in smaller conferences but that's been the case with Tyler Jones. Something is off and Texas State as a whole is not a quality enough team to offset his down trending play. Grab Lafayette to be the latest team to hand Texas State a loss ATS.

UCLA -7

Between the Bruins and Utes it's hard to argue which team is underachieving more. Yet, in a game between two teams playing below their capabilities I harken back to coaching and in-game management. Time and time again the Utes have defeated themselves with improper play calling and costly errors. The Bruins also are a bit under rated here as their offense should be able to put up points against the Utes defense. That's an outlier here as the Utes have not been a potent offense all season long.

NY Jets

            I'm one to wait until a full board is finalized before posting plays. Even though this line has crept down I still see value here as I envisioned this line at 6.5-7 originally.

            Sometimes teams just don't have favorable schedule on a week to week basis. Arizona is one of them as the Jets have been horrible against the number in losses to the Bengals, Steelers, Chiefs, and Seahawks.

            Furthermore, their loss last week against the Steelers forced oddsmakers hands on a steep spread near ten.

            Frankly, Arizona has not found the identity rhythm typical of a Bruce Arians offense. They went to the ground game to defeat the 49ers and defeated a 49ers offense that was in need of a change.

            The same can be said for the Jets offense but Fitzpatrick is one of those quarterbacks that keeps his job when you expect him to falter. Grab the value here on the Jets.

Houston

            Perhaps no team in football has had a no-budge in oddsmakers line judgement over the last 2-3 years than the Indianapolis Colts.

            Playing in close games with a below .500 record has helped that from happening.

            The boomerang factor here has also been the Texans slump in recent losses in horrid fashion to the Vikings and Patriots.

            Yet, I see this game as a tide changer for a Colts organization that has not made the necessary changes to avoid the season they're on track for.

            Grab the Texans as Brock Osweiler's game management ways are a perfect negator to the Colts style of play.

Oakland Raiders

            There are compound factors in this AFC West matchup to expect the Chiefs to get back on track after their bye week.

            They showcases last year the ability to get rolling and also had Oakland's number in the process.

            In both wins over the Raiders, quarterback Derek Carr was the main culprit in the loss.

            In their home loss last year up 20-14, Carr threw three fourth quarter interceptions that resulted in a fourteen point loss.

            Also factored in here is the fact the Raiders could easily be 1-4 versus their 4-1 record. All four of their wins have been by seven points or less and three by three points or less.

            The culture has changed in Oakland. Take the value of a pick 'em for the Raiders to get to 5-1. 

Carolina

            The notion here is that the Panthers are nothing of their form from a season ago. That's certainly correct.

            Also factored in is expected rust plus added pressure on Cam Newton to dig his Panthers out of a hole.

            That should be troublesome against the Saints who are coming off a bye week, especially after playing the Panthers tough for three quarters at home last year.

            Yet, like most teams have done this season the Panthers should be able to attack the Saints and better their offensive output.

            Look for the Panthers defense to make the extra play or two that's been lacking to get the Panthers back on the winning track.

Notre Dame

            The inkling here is that Stanford hit a patch in a rigorous Pac-12 schedule amidst an unsettled offense. Possibly. In fact, if not for a late rally against UCLA they could be in a three game losing streak.

            Notre Dame has free falled to a destination no one imagined. Yet, there is an angle here as the independent Irish have played Stanford yearly. That's an edge factor for the Irish upperclassmen and the better quarterback in this game with DeShone Kizer. Do not forget how comfortable Kizer looked in the second half of last year's loss against the Cardinal. Look for the Irish to make enough x-factor plays to send the Cardinal to their third consecutive loss.

Arkansas State

            Arkansas State got their first win in come back fashion over Georgia Southern last Wednesday. In the win Georgia Southern let off the gas a bit with injuries at quarterback. That coupled with South Alabama coming off a bye in which they defeated San Diego State outright is a contrarian factor. Grab Arkansas State to get the cover on a cheap favored line.

Oregon State

            The mindset of the Pac-12 is the league has become watered down. I see the opposite as teams in transition are challenging the former elites properly. One of those teams still struggling to do so is Oregon State. Yet, they've shown toughness to play solid in stretches.

            Those elements of a solid quarter or a half can carry over at home against the Utes. Utah is not built to blow out teams. Grab the Beavers to become the latest Pac-12 team to surprise on Saturday.

Northern Illinois

            Out in the MAC conference I like the value on the slightly home underdog Northern Illinois. Central Michigan has had a tough time since early in the season after their upset win over Oklahoma State. That win is still factored in this spread versus their losses to Western Michigan and Virginia. Look for Northern Illinois to continue to score against a reeling Central Michigan defense.

TB Buccaneers

One thing that can't evaporate with a team is injuries. Carolina is banged up and likely will be without Cam Newton Monday.

Sure, Derek Anderson came in and did some nice things in relief against the Falcons.

Yet, in a divisional game the Buccaneers should be prepared to have a detailed scouting report for Anderson unlike against the Broncos.

This is also a game where Jameis Winston should not have to force the football early.

Limiting the turnovers on the road will be the emphasis for the Buccaneers and executed properly.

Grab the Buccaneers on a spread that is more fitted for last year's 15-1 team and not this year's team. 

GB Packers

Coming off a bye week there is obvious boosted line elevation here on the Packers. 

New York is also a detracted team at this point off an abysmal offensive showcase on the road against the Vikings.

Still, the emphasis on the Packers for me here is the Giants defense.

They haven't been truly tested this season. In week one the Cowboys played it safe with rookie Dak Prescott. In week two the Saints did not travel well to New York, and in week three Kirk Cousins self errors derailed drives. 

Last week the Vikings moved the football with ease off of basic designed runs and throws.

Many have been waiting for the Packers to showcase a 2014 offensive style. After three weeks of getting back in sync and off a bye, this is a great time to buy the Packers.

Lay the seven.

LA Rams

It's not often that a team wins in the fashion that the Rams have the last three weeks and still find themselves not garnering respect.

A main reason for that is the fact that the Rams have struggled for standout wins outside their division under Jeff Fisher.

Buffalo on the other hand seems to have found the balance offensively and defensively many anticipated to start the season. The Bills defense has wreaked havoc on opposing teams but also played back to back games against vulnerable offenses in Arizona/New England.

I'm also leery of the Bills inability to limit penalties which is a cause of concern on the road. 

Grab the Rams.

Dallas Cowboys

Coming off a Thursday game the Bengals should be ready to attack two rookies in Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, correct?

Maybe so, but there are carry over issues that suggest otherwise.

The Bengals have been a poor third down team and have lacked the ability to finish off drives.

If it were not for big plays to AJ Green the Bengals would likely be a 1-3 team.

Dallas on the other hand is riding the wave of their youth to perfection.

They've also done a superb job at keeping Prescott at bay against the 49ers and Bears. 

Expect the Cowboys to unveil more wrinkles with Prescott and confidence to continue to grow as they reach unanticipated levels with a 4-1 start.

ASU

As poor as the Sun Devils looked last week they're 4-1. UCLA handled their business in accorded fashion against Arizona. Yet, they have not resembled the growth expected of a promising Bruins team. 

With ASU quarterback Manny Wilkins likely out that leaves more concerns for an ASU team. 

This though could be a boost for ATS backers as Todd Graham may have to tone down his aggressive defensive ways.

There is enough talent offensively for the Devils to hang in this one, especially at home. Grab ASU.

Arkansas

We're at the point that is natural to happen with a Nick Saban dominant team. Alabama has drifted to maybe it's highest level of ATS value with their offense matching their stout defense.

Yet, oddsmakers are on top of it, and are in this one.

Arkansas has been flying a bit under the radar in an SEC conference that has seen value driven down with teams such as LSU--Georgia--and the helper skelter Volunteers.

Grab Arkansas to stay in this one and be prepared from a coaching standpoint for four quarters of rigorous football.

UL Monroe 

Monroe will be put the test against an Idaho team that can score the football. Yet, even off an embarrassing loss to Auburn I like the strides Monroe has shown on both sides of the football. Their defense is trustworthy at home to back as a small favorite. Lock in Monroe as our latest Sun Belt winner.

Minnesota

Trading for Sam Bradford was mocked throughout the NFL and amongst football fans. Yet, the Vikings were seeking someone capable of being a true game manager to rely upon their defense.

That's exactly what Bradford has done with huge wins against the Packers and Panthers.

New York on the other hand could easily be in the same position as the Vikings at 3-0.

Yet, they've also been fortunate to not be 0-3 with narrow week one and two wins.

There's a personnel disparity between these two teams and it's one-sided with the Vikings.

Latch onto Minnesota whose disciplined style on both sides of the football will be too much for the Giants.

St. Louis

Jeff Fisher may be inching closer and closer to saving his job for another year. His Rams have responded well since a poor opening MNF loss, with consecutive wins as underdogs.

This week they'll take on an Arizona Cardinals team that was destroyed by a Bills team that looked like the stronger team.

Frankly, Arizona may be over valued based on last season. 

St. Louis is a team that has done well in Arizona against Palmer. They won outright there last season and the year prior knocked out Palmer with an injury.

Even at home this is too steep of a line to back the Cardinals as rusty as they've been.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Suddenly the belief with Denver is that anyone can man this team under center. Heck, they did it with Tebow and a broken down Peyton Manning. Why not believe what you see from Trevor Semien?

In my estimation Cincinnati was flat against Denver. They dropped a couple of interception opportunities and played safe football offensively.

That's not the style Tampa Bay coach Dirk Koetter will roll with on any given week.

Off back to back losses in which there defense has surrendered over 35 points, it would seem like Denver is set to go 4-0.

Yet, Jameis Winston's development will be key here. Tampa Bay's defense should also propel forward based on CJ Anderson's poor road statistics of below four yards a carry.

New Mexico State

Last week New Mexico State lost to Troy in beat down fashion worse than last year's shellacking.

This week they return home to face a UL Lafayette team that oddsmakers can't get right.

They've covered three consecutive games on small numbers, which frankly has been fortunate.

Offensively they've turned the ball over at an alarming rate and quarterback Anthony Jennings seems a bit lost on the field.

Frankly, there defense has kept them in games but that will be a tough task against a New Mexico State offense that can spread the football around.

Grab the value here on the home dogs.

California

The Cal Bears have been a tricky team to evaluate as they've lost three consecutive games in small margins.

Defensively they've been torn apart as Texas, ASU, and San Diego State all piled up yards and points against them.

Seemingly facing a disciplined Utah team would figure against them as well.

Yet, last year Cal matched up well against Utah on both sides of the football. In fact, if it were not for a mistake prone game by quarterback Jared Goff they likely would have pulled off the upset at Utah.

Davis Webb was nearly the sole difference in a win last week against ASU, this Saturday he is. Take the Cal Bears.

BYU

Coming into this season expectations were high for BYU with sixth year starter Taysom Hill returning.

Those expectations have simmered as the offense has fallen backward from where it was last season.

Facing an underrated MAC representative in Toledo could pose a letdown spot for the Cougars.

Yet, there's two sides of units to factor in when handicapping and I believe it's the Cougars defense that rises to the occasion here.

Ignore Hill's struggles and look for the Cougars defense to deliver the value and cover Friday night.

Scissoring from a home game to Oakland and down to New Orleans is the scenario the Atlanta Falcons are faced with.

They'll take on a Saints team that's been in both of their early losses to the Raiders and Giants.

Frankly, they're failing to hit that extra level as their team identity remains undefined.

Atlanta on the other hand has shifted their offensive game plan to Matt Ryan's strengths. He is spreading the football around and becoming more of a take what the defense gives me quarterback.

It's a recipe that bodes well on the road with an improved defense. Grab the Falcons to send the Saints to 0-3.

The Bears may have looked like the worst team in football on MNF. Yet, we've seen time and time again that the NFL is a different league on a week to week basis.

Yes, the Cowboys could easily be 2-0, but lets not forget the youth leading the way for them with two rookies in Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott.

Elliott fumbled the ball twice last week which surely will be in the back of his mind in a prime time spotlight game. Prescott has shined but is the rookie wall lurking with more film on him?

I'll take the Bears to keep this interesting in a bounce back favorable points position off last week's prime time dud.

Throughout Arizona State's struggles this season, the Sun Devils have made proper adjustments in second halves to avoid a loss.

California has a style of play that bodes to Arizona State's home field advantage and ability to adjust as the game goes on.

Expect ASU's young defense to cause disruptions and for ASU's under rated scoring offense to pile up points against the Cal Bears.

Down in the Sun Belt there is a lot of unknown with the majority of teams. UL Lafayette is one as they've been a bit dysfunctional in the early portion of there season.

The past two weeks they snuck by McNeese State and South Alabama with fortunate turnovers and big plays from the offense.

Yet, Tulane's style of play fits to the advantage of UL Lafayette.

Though this is the Rajun Cajuns first road game of the season expect them to be prepared against the Green Wave.

Last year the Ducks resurrected their season with a big road win against Colorado as slight favorites.

In that game the big advantage centered on the Ducks clear speed advantage over the Buffaloes.

Even though quarterback Sefo Liufau's status is undetermined the Buffaloes have an extra level of confidence to trust here in Eugene.

Unlike last year where the Buffaloes ran out of gas, expect them to hang tough and play two full halves against the Ducks.

 The Vikings are set to open their new stadium with uncertainty at the quarterback position.

Will Sam Bradford or veteran Shaun Hill be the starter?

Either way they'll need to combat a Packers team that showed vast strides from the team that lost to the Vikings in week seventeen last season.

Yet, I'm still leery of the immense amount of pressure on Aaron Rodgers to deliver on high degree of difficult plays.

Balance was a key asset to the Vikings surprise season last year and their week one win last week. Grab the Vikings to open their new stadium in grand fashion.

Play Minnesota Vikings

In last year's three matchups neither the Steelers nor Bengals had a healthy Ben Roethlisberger or Andy Dalton available.

Still, all games were competitive which should be a constant in week two's matchup.

One key from the Bengals has been their ability to neutralize Ben Roethlisberger. In the last four games he has faced the Bengals he has thrown four touchdowns to six interceptions.

This is a spot where Andy Dalton must show a trend forward as a quarterback instead of scattered ability.

This will be another close game in which I'll gravitate towards the Bengals.

This is an opportunity that the Sooners could have only hoped for after losing to the Houston Cougars.

A win at home against perennial dominant Ohio State and continued wins and the Sooners will have bypassed the waiting game in December.

Having faced the Cougars duel threat quarterback in Greg Ward should have the Sooners better prepared for Buckeyes quarterback JT Barrett.

Expect a grand Big 12 style up and down game that will be unaccustomed for Ohio State in the Big 10. 

Home field and consistent big plays will be the difference on the Sooners side here.

Adjusting to LSU transfer quarterback in Anthony Jennings has been an early season transition for Louisiana Lafayette.

Furthermore, the Rajun Cajuns defense has not helped make the process for Jennings easy. They allowed forty-five points in week one against Boise State and twenty-two points a week ago against McNeese State.

To start the season this will be the Rajun Cajuns third consecutive home game, which will be a deciding factor here.

Don't be surprised to see Lafayette score a considerable amount higher than the points allowed from South Alabama's defense of just twenty one against Miss State and twenty-four against Georgia Southern.