Clippers -4.5

            The lone play for Friday will come with the Clippers. First the Clippers are gaining value here based on an early Eastern start time in Orlando. Secondly, they just suffered a loss to the Timberwolves who had lost eleven straight prior. But I will not over value that loss as the Timberwolves had been competitive against OKC, Cleveland, Utah, and against a few other opponents. Orlando has rose their play recently with a win against Boston and a nice effort as steep dogs against OKC. Yet, they're defensive issues will come to the forefront tonight. The Clippers should be able to churn an octane performance and score in the 115-125 range. Grab the Clippers

02/04 04:00 PM  CB   (725) WISC GREEN BAY VS (726) NORTHERN KENTUCKY (02/04 10:39 AM) edit

Take: (725) WISC GREEN BAY 

Reason: Wisconsin Green Bay -3 Northern Kentucky lost a few days ago at home to Oakland by a result of 11 points. They actually played closer than the final score indicated with a few solid runs to begin the second half. Yet this is a spot where you'll have to devalue that performance and see that Northern Kentucky is struggling to contain offenses in the Horizon league. I don't see that changing tonight against a Green Bay team that has the ability to score in bunches. Grab Wisc Green Bay.

Penn State +16.5

            Iowa's surging offense has put them in prime position to make a good run in the Big 10. Yet let down's happen in-conference and I believe this spread is a tad bit inflated off of Iowa's latest string of dominant wins. Penn State has snuck in on the number against a handful of teams as big dogs already. We'll grab them here again to do so.

Notre Dame +5.5

            The Irish have offensive balance to negate the impact of the Hurricanes eight game home win streak. At 5-3 in-conference I believe the Hurricanes are set for a poor finish in the ACC. Grab the Irish to play well on the road here and have success on the offensive end of the floor.

Virginia -23

            Virginia is showing strides on both ends of the floor after a 16 point road win against Louisville. Expect carry over momentum from that game to ride at home against a Boston College team that may not get a win in the ACC. Their one strength is Rutgers transfer Eli Carter who attempted nine of his fifteen attempts from the three point line against North Carolina. Expect the Cavaliers to limit him and hold another opponent under fifty points.

Play UNLV +2.5

            This is a value play on the Rebels. The loss of Ben Carter has caused an over reaction along with a loss to a solid San Diego State team. New Mexico isn't exactly the juggernaut they use to be either. Talent advantage hails to the Rebels and I look for Pat McGaw to showcase himself as a true leader tonight. Grab the Rebels on the road.

Play Virginia Tech +9.5

            The Hokies are coming off a blowout loss at Pittsburgh. Instead of over reacting to that loss we'll look for value on a similar spread at Syracuse. Syracuse has their offense working a bit better but their defense is still questionable in their trademark zone. The Hokies small lineup should be able to attack creases and penetrate the zone. I also expect the Cuse offense that has been above average to tone down a bit today.

Add-

LSU -5

            This was a game I wanted to add earlier but it moved to six. Now that it's moved down I'll grab the value on the Tigers. LSU has shown enough strides on both ends of the floor to handle a road trip to Auburn. I do not expect a let down after strong performances against Georgia and a near upset of Oklahoma.

Milwaukee Bucks +4

            Jason Kidd and the Bucks head to Sacramento Monday night to start a new road trip. This is a matchup of young lineups that will merit my attention ATS. I've been impressed with Milwaukee's in-game coaching from Jason Kidd. Sacramento just does not put teams away especially at home. The Bucks are getting better as each game goes on and I believe Kidd will make the proper in-game adjustments to have the Bucks in this. Grab Milwaukee

Utah Jazz -4.5

            While some may want to latch onto the Bulls for value Monday I will not. Utah has caught my eye as they continue to get better overall. They're in the hunt currently for the last seed in the West. Now healthy with Derrick Favors back, they also have young pieces that have seen the green light of the NBA. Trey Burke, Rodney Hood, and Rudy Gobert have all raised their level of play in the month of January to go along with budding star Gordon Hayward. The Jazz home court altitude hindering the Bulls will be an angle by handicappers but I just see it as a good matchup for the Jazz. Grab Utah.

Indiana Pacers +4.5

            Cleveland's surge before the All-Star break has paved the way for LeBron and company to hit their stroll. Yet I can't ignore the fact that the Cavaliers where facing a deficit deep into the second quarter against the Suns and blown out by the Warriors. Indiana has value Monday at home as they've been a strong home team all season. Grab the Pacers

Louisville -1

            Louisville is coming off an embarrassing home loss in double-digit fashion to the Virginia Cavaliers. Virginia showcased heart and toughness defensively not seen from them this year. NCAA basketball you need to have short term memory and I believe the Cardinal can bounce back here against the Tar Heels who are who they are. They're an excellent offensive team but very limited defensively. This should be the spot where Trey Lewis and Damion Lee can finally get both going in the same game. Grab the Cardinal at home.

Play Virginia Tech +10

            Pittsburgh right now in my opinion has some of the highest glaring issues in the ACC. They have 2-guards and small forwards almost up and down their roster.  As conference play continues teams have been better at game planning this weakness. Teams have limited their half court offense and worn the Panthers down offensively. The Hokies are coming off a game against Louisville in which three players shot double-digit free throws. Buzz Williams has always had a knack for utilizing the free throw line to his advantage since his days at Marquette. They'll win that battle by 7-10 free throws, which will be the difference in our cover.

Play Central Florida +8

            Central Florida's defense has not been pretty yet they are getting a bit too under valued here against the Huskies on their home floor. UConn is not the same without Amidah Brimah inside and frankly does not wow opponents with their offensive efficiency. Guards Rodney Purvis and Sterling Gibbs are known to take bad shots while Shonn Miller is mainly a putback type of scorer. Grab Central Florida who should be getting around 4.5 here.

Play Wake Forest +10

            Notre Dame may be a solid home court team but they're obviously struggling to get their lineup in solid order. They're coming off a blowout loss to Syracuse and may have been over valued from a Duke win. Wake Forest is coming off a game in which they led by nine points against Virginia before letting the lead whittle away. They'll be able to score effectively against the Irish. This is a team that's lost close battles to Louisville, Indiana, North Carolina, and Duke (final score not indicative of the game). They'll battle until the clock hits zeroes which I'll value here in case the Irish have a low to mid-teen lead for a possible under five minute cover.

Kentucky +5

            Kansas bit of a free fall seems like it should end today at home against Kentucky, correct? Not necessarily. Sometimes scheduling can create havoc for a team and that's the case right now for Kansas. When Kentucky was sliding they lost the label of top team and have played looser. That has allowed them to gain traction and should bode well on the road against Kansas. Kentucky's athletes should pose problems for a finesse Kansas team. Too many points here in a game that should come down to the wire.

Play UNC -26

            We're going to add a play on UNC against BC. All season North Carolina has been deemed a bit under valued in my opinion thanks to lackluster defense. Offensively they've been as efficient as a team that I can remember since the early 2000 Duke/UConn teams. BC struggles on both ends of the floor and this is a perfect tune up spot for UNC to roll. Grab UNC.

Virginia +6

            As poor as Wake Forest made Virginia look a few nights ago you have to believe a team came rally around the type of come back the Cavaliers mustered. Louisville is showing better efficiency but has yet to showcase the caliber level of play that would warrant them as consistent big favorites. We've been able to capture several ATS covers against Louisville and will aim for it here again on value on the Cavaliers.

Florida State -3.5

            Florida State defeated Clemson earlier in conference play and I believe they'll do so again today at home. Clemson is coming off an easy win against Pittsburgh in which they remained hot from the perimeter. Traveling on the road against a team that has already defeated them can create the type of doubt that causes pressing. Florida State may be adjusting to new recruits but can still light up the scoreboard. Grab FSU to sweep the Tigers.

Georgia Tech +5.5

            Syracuse hopes to continue to rise in Joey Lunardi's bracketology as they inch closer to getting back in the March picture. They've had some strong showcase performances and wins recently but are facing a Yellow Jackets team that hasn't back down to anyone this season. They're coming off one of the more impressive ACC conference wins yet in defeating NC State handily on the road. They've also defeated Virginia and fought tooth and nail against North Carolina/Louisville. Syracuse has shown much improvement but still rely too heavily on a perimeter offense and two freshman in Tyler Lydon/Malachi Richardson. We'll grab the value on the Yellow Jackets.

Timberwolves +8.5

            This game keeps rising on the number as the Jazz look to give payback to the Timberwolves from a 94-80 loss December 30th. I'll gladly take the points here as people ignore standout details. Yes, Derrick Favors returned Monday but rust is evident after nearly a month off with a back injury. The rising play of Rodney Hood and Gordon Hayward has taking the eyes off a Jazz offense that still struggles at times. Minnesota's youth is relentless and will apply pressure to this Jazz offense. Grab the Twolves plus the points.

Rockets +7.5

            The Rockets may have been defeated by the Spurs in blowout fashion but they've steadily been playing better basketball as of late. OKC on the other hand has made some lineup adjustments with Dion Waiters in the starting lineup and is coming off a road trip of wins against the Knicks/Timberwolves. Yet I am not impressed with how they've looked defensively and believe the value lies here with the Rockets.

Washington +6.5

The Huskies will look to try and grab another win over the Bruins. In their prior matchup the Huskies stormed back in the first half from a large deficit and carried the momentum into the second half. Though this game is at UCLA I believe their skillset poses a challenge for the Bruins. Grab the generous 6.5 here with the Huskies.

Furman -6.5

            We won the other night with Furman not playing their best but still covering on the road against VMI. I expect a sharper performance from Furman against Western Carolina. Western Carolina has struggled against high scoring teams this season and I expect Furman to be able to find their shots early and often back at home Thursday. Grab Furman.

Play East Tenn State +2

Our second southern conference play Thursday comes in East Tenn State versus Wofford. Wofford comes in as a two point favorite as oddsmakers give them one last chance to show value they deserved from the past two seasons. The problem is East Tenn State is a veteran team that has well advanced scouting on Wofford's downgraded lineup. The Terriers have hold over third and fourth options but no go to scorers remaining from the past two years. Look for East Tenn State to take advantage as will we in what should be the last over valued line on Wofford this season.

Minnesota +7

            OKC is coming off an incredible come from behind win against the Knicks. Rather than see it as an igniting point I'll take the value on the young Timberwolves who have performed better in recent games against the Mavericks and Cavaliers. OKC is still lackluster defensively which does not bode well on the road in back to back games.

Atlanta Hawks -5

            The Clippers bounced back nicely from a blowout defeat to the Raptors to win with defense against the Pacers. Yet there certainly a team wearing down a bit before All Star break. Doc Rivers did not want to have to utilize Paul Pierce as much as he had and the wear/tear is showing. The Clippers needed a come from behind effort against a tired Miami Heat team, were blown out by the Cavs, and blown out by the Raptors. The Hawks should be able to handle the Clippers tonight.

Virginia Tech +10

            Virginia Tech finds themselves yet again devalued ATS even with wins against Georgia Tech, Virginia, and a tough hard fought game against North Carolina. Buzz Williams has this team playing with confidence and familiarity of Coach Pitino's tendencies from his Big East days at Marquette. Both Damion Lee and Trey Lewis continue to struggle in-conference from the field. We'll grab the value on the Hokies.

Boston -9.5

            After slumping for a stretch it appears the Celtics have regained their stride. They're playing with balanced energy and seem to have been ignited by their win against the Bulls as they torched the Wizards on their home floor the other night. Denver has played a bit over their heads and I see the Celtics handling them with ease tonight.

Raptors -7.5

            Initially you'd expect a professional franchise team to respond after a 25 point home loss last night to the Celtics. Yet, the Wizards have lost three of four at home and now head on the road to face a surging Raptors team. Quietly the Raptors feature eight players that average 20 minutes or more---7 scored in double digits in their latest win vs the Clippers. These teams are playing at a different level than three weeks ago when the Raptors utilized a strong third quarter to win 97-88 at Washington. While there may be perceived road value here I expect a Raptors blowout.

Virginia -6.5

            The Cavaliers have not looked like a defensive team all season but tonight that should change against a Wake Forest team that is turnover prone. Turnovers feed the passion of defense for the Cavaliers and I would expect the defense to grow stronger as the game wanes. Offensively the Cavaliers have more than enough efficiency with Gill/Toby down low and Perrantes/Brogdon from mid-range and the perimeter. Grab the Cavaliers on the road.

Central Florida +4.5

            In the American Conference Memphis travels down to Florida to take on a Central Florida team they've had great success against since entering the conference. Yet this Memphis team has a style of play that bodes to the success of Central Florida. Central Florida has not only the ability to run with the Tigers but also can outshoot them from the perimeter. Grab the points with Central Florida tonight.

Wisconsin Green Bay -5.5

            Sometimes it's not the opponent but the timing of a matchup. In the horizon conference I believe that is the case with Detroit tonight. They've now faced strong offensive teams in Oakland and Wisc-Milwaukee and fought in both matchups for a four point loss and a five point loss. While the value may seem on them tonight I believe it's on Green Bay who is a relentless scoring offensive team. Pace may finally catch up to Detroit. Look for a tired Detroit team and value on GB tonight.

Duke +3.5

            Remember in the college football season when Alabama was an underdog to Georgia after a loss to Ole Miss? Duke lost three straight games and appeared to be ready for their fourth with a 7-point deficit to NC State. Yet they bounced back with a resounding 17 point differential in the second half over the Wolfpack. Miami is about as over rated a top 25 team I've seen since Texas 3-4 years back. This is a great spot to get underdog points from a Duke team that should reascend itself in a quick hurry.

Furman -6

            VMI looks to showcase ATS value after a few horrific losses over the past few weeks. One was against Furman which completely picked apart VMI on both ends of the floor. I don't see that changing today even on the road as VMI's defense is too susceptible. Furman has solid enough guard/forward play to score at will and get their second double-digit win against VMI.

Utah -4

            Utah has been a bit of a disappointment from where they were a season ago. Yet there is still time for this group to come together and make a run in the thick of Pac-12 conference play. The Huskies advantage in games they've won has been their size and athleticism. Look for Utah to be able to hinder that strength and extend their defense out to the perimeter. That should lead to a poor field goal percentage for Washington even at home. Grab Utah

Syracuse +10

            Can the Orange grab another victory over a quality team in Virginia today? I'm not sure on that but I do believe they're getting high value against the number. Don't forget last year Syracuse had a quality lead at the carrier dome before being crushed against a strong defensive Virginia team. This year's Virginia team is not the same defensively and no coach is better at making in-game adjustments against a poor offensive team than Jim Boeheim. Grab the points with the Cuse.

Play Arizona +3

            For the NFC Championship we'll grab the Cardinals plus the points. This game figures to be a dandy as this is the best combined record of an NFC Championship game since 1998 between the Falcons and Vikings. As great of a season as the Panthers have had I believe they're facing the one playoff opponent they likely wanted to avoid. Arizona's ability to spread the football out is a dimension of football that the Panthers have struggled with this season against the Colts, Eagles, Giants, Packers, Saints, and Seahawks last week. Arizona is also prepared to correct the past two seasons---missing the playoffs with an 11-5 record under Carson Palmer/Bruce Arians and last year's 9-1 start thwarted by a season ending injury to Palmer.  Also keep in mind last year the Cardinals led 14-13 at half with Ryan Lindley starting against the Panthers in the wild card round. That was done with just 64 offensive yards. Grab Az plus the points.

St John's +5.5

            The Johnnies are one of those teams you have to do a double-take on. They have suffered some puzzling losses amidst a new coach in Chris Mullin and an entire new starting five. Yet they've shown a hustle intensity that I like against a Marquette team that has been just as every bit of helter skelter. This is our Sunday CBB value play with the Johnnies.

Play Virginia Tech +10.5

            North Carolina has shown they can be the best team in college basketball when they want to be offensively. They have six different players averaging double digit scoring yet have only won in-conference games by a margin of twelve points. The reason for that has been their defense which has been horrendous. Virginia Tech already has quality conference wins over Virginia, NC State, and Georgia Tech. They also narrowly lost to Notre Dame by two points. Expect the Hokies to ride the energy of Buzz Williams and play well in front of their home crowd.

Play Sacramento -3

            After a thrilling victory against the Hawks one would believe the Kings would have a let down at home against the Pacers. As you look around the NBA we're starting to see a lot of teams wearing down before the All Star Break. I believe the Pacers are one as they've had a few key injuries and remember Paul George is coming off a full year without basketball. Value here lies with the Kings.

Play Milwaukee +6

            One of the teams surging right now are the Pelicans. You have to wonder how long can they sustain this type of offense. After demolishing a strong defensive team in the Pistons you'd figure they'd do the same against a Bucks team as just a one-point differential favorite of -6 instead of -5. Yet, the Bucks are improving by the day and have a young deep rotation that should give the Pelicans a tall task today.

Play Georgia Tech +6

            The Yellow Jackets are one of the teams getting high value ATS almost every gasme they’ve been an underdog. It's hard to figure out as they’ve defeated Virginia, and hung around as steep underdogs against UNC and others. I like them again here as the Yellow Jackets have size to thwart the Cardinal and offense that the Cardinal haven't seen thus far in the ACC.

Detroit +6.5

            Down in the Horizon league we'll grab value on Detroit getting nearly seven against Milwaukee. Milwaukee has rode a veteran lineup to surprise some folks especially with the efficiency of their offense. Yet in the Horizon league there are far too many teams that are cake walks that can pad and inflate stats. I expect Detroit who has athleticism at nearly all five positions to cause a bit of come down to Earth shooting for Milwaukee. Grab the value here.

Duke -4

            An overblown stat sometimes can be offensive rebounds. Duke lost their third in a row to Syracuse thanks to a great effort by Tyler Roberson with 20 rebounds. Yet the Blue Devils lost because of other variables that included keen play by Syracuse guards with transition spot up three offense and their great zone defense. After NC State walloped Pittsburgh and has impressed in other games I believe they're over valued here even with great interior play. Grab the Blue Devils to respond well.

Wake Forest +14.5

            Miami may have won against Boston College with a solid second half but something is still off with this Hurricanes team. Against a team that exerts a lot of effort in Wake Forest I'd be leery for the Hurricanes in a double-digit favorite spot. Grab the Demon Deacons to hang around with the Hurricanes.

Oklahoma City -5.5

            The Thunder are on the ascent and as well as the Mavericks have played you have to believe a bit of a wall is coming for them. They patched through the first few weeks of the season with an unhealthy roster before getting Matthews/Parsons in the lineup. They've shown the ability to play as a veteran team but I like the team balance and chemistry of OKC to get the job done on the road tonight.

Play Charlotte Bobcats +5

            It's highly evident that the Charlotte Bobcats are exceeding their ceiling of play as Kemba Walker continues to exhibit a dominating showcase and that the Magic are under achieving. Yet one can not ignore the lack of offensive from the Magic. They're struggling in all phases. Rather than latch onto a team in the Magic that are due for a win we'll grab the value of +5 with a confident Hornets club.

Memphis -1.5

            Tonight we'll look for the Grizzlies to handle the Nuggets in the altitude. I believe the Grizzlies have a bad taste in their mouth the last time they were in altitude and lost in overtime against the Jazz. The Nuggets who are playing their sixth straight home game have gained ATS support here as a result. Yet I don't expect the easy looks at the basket they've been getting from non-defensive teams such as OKC, Golden State, and others to be the case tonight against a hungry Grizzlies team. Grab the Grizzlies.

Boston College +15.5

            The Miami Hurricanes have lost consecutive games and head on the road for their third straight tonight against Boston College. Even though BC has lost all four ACC games by an average of 20 points I expect the game plan from the Hurricanes tonight to bode to the success of the point spread. They're focus will be solely on getting a victory with their defense. Grab BC to get the steep cover at home.

Pittsburgh -8.5

            This is just a poor matchup for NC State. NC State thrives on allowing point guard Anthony Barber to penetrate and facilitate offense. He has been over worked and succumbed in the second half against UNC. Fatigue of conference play can get the best of a lot of teams. With Barber wearing down NC State becomes a non ACC caliber team. Pittsburgh is a dangerous team at home and has the arsenal of depth to coast here. Grab Pitt as NC State's first half against UNC will entice bettors on their side.

Clemson +10.5

            One has to wonder how gassed the Clemson Tigers are after whirling wins over Syracuse, Louisville, Duke, and Miami. Yet, as shown yesterday with Syracuse's win over Duke this is a stacked ACC. Virginia's offensive inefficiency is troublesome to back at home in-conference against a Tigers caliber opponent. The Tigers have the interior players to limit Virginia's attacks in the lane. Florida State started pulling away from Virginia because of their ability to make down three's. Clemson has been flourishing from the perimeter and should continue to do so tonight. Too many points here.

Cavs -3

            Seeing the Cavs as a favorite against a Warriors team they struggled with in last year's post season and on Christmas Day is a bit of a head scratcher. But as I stated a week ago the Cavaliers are playing a different elevated brand of basketball that hasn't been seen since Lebron returned. Couple that with the Warriors tired legs and recent losses and I do believe we have enough advantage to make a play on the Cavs tonight.

Play Syracuse +11

            I'll be the first to admit that Syracuse is not the same team they were at the beginning of the season. Yet I believe the talent is there and they're severely under valued. Any team that loses their coach for a nine game suspension is going to decline and Syracuse did. But with a resounding win against Wake Forest I believe Syracuse can keep momentum going against a young Duke team that is reeling currently. Syracuse has the veteran advantage and will be able to score against a Duke team that has been giving up too many easy baskets. Grab Syracuse

Magic +8

            The Magic have been a thorn for backers over the last two weeks but now is a good time to get a return on investments with them. They grabbed us a cover in Europe in an overtime loss to the Raptors and I see them doing so again today. Atlanta is still probing for the right mix of minutes with Korver struggling and youth playing well with Hardaway Jr, Schroeder, and Bazemore. Orlando's interior defense should keep them in this game and I expect their offense to continue to move upward from what we saw against Toronto.

Utah +2.5

            Utah has had their issues on the road but I think today is a good spot to grab them against a Bobcats team that's started to falter. Perhaps they were playing over their heads with key production from young players and veterans. Utah has showed better balance offensively lately and should be able to disrupt the Bobcats offensively enough to win this.

Play FSU +4

Green Bay +7

            This in my opinion is one of the strongest underdog value plays over the last five years in the playoffs. Arizona's rise to an ATS juggernaut has not been seen to this fast of a rise in quite some time. They were right up there with the Patriots week in and week out with public support. For their great games there were too many alarming games of inconsistency. Against the Bengals, Ravens, Rams, Seahawks, and a couple of other games I saw performances that gave the vibe of a team that would crumble in the playoffs. Green Bay on the other hand is at the bottom of the spectrum in terms of perceived value. That will change this weekend as the Packers avenge their loss to the Cardinals with an outright win.

Wisc Green Bay +14.5

            The Horizon league should be a cake walk for Valparaiso. They have the returning veterans and strong coaching with Drew to get the job done. As down of a year as it's been for Green Bay, they have the offensive pedigree to maintain value here as steep underdogs. We'll grab them here to give Valpo a run for their money and stay within the number of 14.5.

Milwaukee +6

            Milwaukee once again has value here as oddsmakers and bettors have no faith. They got us a few nights ago against the Bulls as they erased an eight point deficit at home. Yesterday they prevailed against the Hawks and today they get to face a Bobcats team that has been wildly inconsistent for the last two weeks. This is strictly a value play as until the Bobcats show stability I'll continue to play reasonable numbers against them. Grab the Bucks

Detroit +2

            I've been impressed with the upward play of Detroit. That's why value has shifted today at home against Oakland. Oakland has the flare and stick out value to snare with Felder to snare them as a slight favorite here. Instead grab the value in Detroit which had a strong performance last year against Oakland that they should carry over at home

Clemson +5

            What Clemson is doing right now is truly remarkable. They have the pedigree to continue it against a Hurricanes team that has been plagued the last several seasons with let downs. Last year Clemson suffered one of their worst ACC performances against the Hurricanes in a dismal road performance. The team has grown and with momentum I believe they'll continue to shine. Grab the Tigers plus 5.

Pittsburgh -16.5

            Boston College just has zero value in the strong ACC. Pittsburgh may have had a poor performance against Louisville but have had strong showcase performances against Notre Dame, Gonzaga, and others. There just isn't any offense on the Eagles to sustain a competitive matchup. Grab the Panthers.

Villanova -7

            Georgetown continues to displease Big East fans with a down season. It's hard to believe as the Hoyas have strong talent and depth. But they have athletes that need a full season under their belts before growth can occur. Playing against strong defensive teams such as Villanova just bodes trouble. The Wildcats have been winning games with their trademarked defense while their offense continues to slump. Look for them to snap out of their offensive lull and take care of the Hoyas on the road.

Play Vtech +7.5

Big Board--Analysis in Later Write Ups

Maryland -10

Big Board Analysis in Later Write Ups

Play UNC -15.5

Big Board--Analysis in Later Write Ups

Miami -2.5

            The Heat are nearing the end of their road trip against the Denver Nuggets. Denver defeated the Warriors as 9.5 point underdogs and the Heat blew a first half lead for the second consecutive game. Against Utah they lost as the Jazz clamped down defensively in the altitude. Against the Clippers the Heat lost against prolific offense in the second half. This time around against the Nuggets the Heat should be able to control the pace of play for four quarters and pull off the win.

George Washington +5.5

            Tonight in the Atlantic 10, Dayton will look to hold serve against George Washington. The Flyers rely on outside shooting and guard oriented defense. Expect the Colonels to be able to counter as they have tall and athletic athletes that will pose a challenge for the Flyers. Grab the value on the veteran Colonels

Oregon +5.5

            Oregon has been a tough team to gauge but I think they're one of the top rising young teams in CBB. Dana Altman has done an excellent job dealing with injuries as his team gains strides. Utah may have the veterans but I like the youth and talent of the Ducks to have the advantage tonight.

Cleveland +7

            The Spurs are surging with plenty of double digit wins to make bettors happy. Yet tonight they're facing a focused and determined Cavs team. Since Kyrie Irving has returned they've looked better than they have ever before since Lebron returned to Cleveland last season. We took the value a few nights ago on the Mavs +6 and can not overlook tonight's value on the Cavs. Grab Cleveland

Orlando +4.5

            Orlando finally has value after a horrific stretch of play against the Cavs, Wizards, etc. They've been rested and I believe they're ready to pose a challenge ATS and against a Raptors team that has been wildly inconsistent. Expect a competitive game wire to wire in England

Portland -2.5

            Portland is getting value tonight in my opinion from one of the toughest schedules a team has had to face over the last week and a half. Utah took care of business against the Heat Saturday but I'll devalue that. For the majority of the game the Heat were in control before running out of gas defensively and offensively. Utah's lineup does not have the firepower to match the potent Trailblazers for four quarters. Grab the Blazers

Clemson +8

            The Tigers have received zero confidence ATS in three straight games against Syracuse, Louisville, and Florida State. All were outright wins and they're facing a Duke team that is entering the Bermuda Triangle of their schedule. Over the last three years they've lost all four games from Jan 11th-Jan 13th. Clemson has confidence and experience to attack a Duke team that lacks depth. Grab the plus 8.

Dallas +6

            It's been a handful of games since the Cavs have been truly challenged by a capable opponent. They've had an easy road against teams such as the Timberwolves, Magic, and others. Dallas has finally hit their stride offensively with Matthews and Parsons performing well along with point guard Williams. They'll be up for the challenge tonight against the Cavs.

Chicago -3

            Sometimes facing the right opponent at the wrong time can lead to improper judging of a team. The Bulls have lost consecutive games in torching fashion against the Hawks and Wizards. Atlanta had their number last season and carried it over and Washington as I stated last night are finding their edge. Tonight look for the Bulls to respond on the road against the young Bucs.

Memphis -1.5

            Memphis achieved an incredible come back against the Celtics the other night. Rather than discount that win I'll stamp it with approval into tonight's matchup against the Rockets. Even though Houston had a great win against the Pacers I'm not sold on the quality of basketball I've witnessed from them. There are still too many issues and I do not like the play I'm seeing from veterans Howard, Brewer, Terry, or guard Beverly. Grab the Grizzlies to hold their home court tonight and continue to gain momentum.

Phoenix +10

            Phoenix has been horrendous but gets a favorable road spot tonight after three days rest against Indiana. Indiana is coming off four consecutive road games in which they exerted a high level of energy. One they let an 18-point lead against the Heat slip away and another against the Pelicans they fought back from a fourteen point deficit. This led to a fatigued effort against Houston in which the defense surrendered 107 points. Grab the Suns who should have enough offense to hang in this one.

Texas A&M -6

            A&M is a team that I believe will find themselves in the top ten sooner than later. They have a veteran team and an emerging freshman in DJ Fogg. Florida on the other hand is a poor free throw shooting team (61.7%) and lacks the offensive firepower to win on the road tonight. The Aggies learned their lesson from two narrow wins and will get the cover tonight against Florida.

Alabama -6.5

            We'll conclude the bowl season with a play on Alabama to win. This is Alabama's year and I think the second time around oddsmakers have got it right with favoring a BCS team properly against Clemson. The ACC has shown it's down side overall in the bowls while the SEC has shined heavily. Clemson should pose a challenge but you have to believe Saban and companies adjustments will be too much for the Tigers to overcome. Play Bama as last play of the collegiate football season.

Wizards +8

            Odds are inflated Monday with Chicago losing to Atlanta to end their seven game win streak. Quietly the Wizards are finding confidence as Bradley Beal misses time with an injury. John Wall's play is entering a phase of brilliance that I think carries over on the road against the Bulls tonight. Grab the Wizards +8.

VMI +10.5

            VMI was victim to a hungry veteran Western Carolina team Saturday in a blowout loss. They've now suffered blow out losses two of their last three games which is why I find value on tonight's game against East Tenn State who blew out Western Carolina themselves. Grab VMI +10.5

Play Green Bay +1

            The lone premium NFL play will be on the Green Bay Packers +1. As great as Kirk Cousin's second half surge has been it needs to be examined further. His 19 TD's and two interceptions all came against losing opponents. Before that stretch Cousins had thrown 28 touchdowns and 28 interceptions in 22 starts. As poor as Green Bay looked the past two weeks I believe Aaron Rodgers can find a way to deliver a win here similar to wins against the Seahawks and Bears earlier in the season. Look for Rodgers to attack the Redskins 28th rated defense.

Play Miami Heat -1.5

            The Heat are rising to the occasion and playing some of the best basketball in the NBA in my opinion currently. As stated in ATS wins the last two weeks D Wade wants this Heat team to get on a roll before All Star break. He has delivered his part and did so with absentee play from his supporting cast last night. Utah is just a mess offensively which bodes to the Heat's advantage. Expect a better effort from the Heat supporting cast and continued solid defense. Grab the Heat.

CS Fullerton -5.5

            Out in Big West action will take a stab at CS Fullerton who are coming off an atrocious performances against UC Riverside. Yet before that game they had shown strides with 7 wins. I like the mix of interior and guard play that Fullerton can shine with against Cal State Northridge. While Riverside used proper offensive sets and numerous passes to find open shots, Northridge is the exact opposite with to many one on one moves and lack of proper sets. Grab Fullerton -5.5.

Wizards +3

            The Magic and Wizards both played last night with the Wizards losing soundly to the Raptors and Magic defeating the Nets. The Magic's win ended a four game losing streak that started with a loss to the Wizards. Yet as I profiled in the Magic's loss to the Wizards no team in basketball looks as tired as the Magic. Last night they were able to win with 83 points and shooting below 40 percent from the field. The Wizards are playing better than they were in the prior matchup and have found a balanced lineup with Temple, Dudley, and others while Bradley Beal is out. Grab the Wizards

Boise State -6

            Boise State were steep favorites last Saturday in which they didn't cover against Colorado State. Now home again they'll face a Fresno State team that may have more athleticism than teams they've faced such as Michigan State. Yet, athleticism does not grant you an instant advantage. Look for the Broncos to get what they want offensively and cruise similar to the way they did against Oregon.

Arizona State +5

            The Sun Devils keep garnering ATS key numbers for several reasons. They have shooters and are growing game to game. UCLA is coming off a win over the Wildcats, a game in which they nearly let slip away. I like the skill personnel that ASU has in the backcourt to play up to par with the Bruins strength with Alford. Grab ASU to keep this within the number.

VMI +7.5

            By no means do I believe Western Carolina should be 7.5 point favorites. They've lacked the offensive camaraderie to pull away from teams which has hurt their strength in defense. VMI is coming off a circus swing of performances with a blowout loss to Furman and a narrow home loss to Wofford. Expect a better balance here from VMI for a complete game and a cover of 7.5

Wichita State -7

            Wichita State's failure with returnees and transfers from Kansas and Cleveland State's Anton Grady have finally created ATS value here. With Southern Illinois coming off a home win against Northern Iowa as 2.5 point underdogs, you'd figure they'd be in for another solid win at home against Wichita State. Instead I believe Wichita State finally got the wake up call they needed in a narrow 67-64 win against Evansville. Grab Wichita State -7

Notre Dame -4.5

            Notre Dame is one of those teams that you can't understand why they're not a top 25 team. Losses of key players from graduation a year ago have hurt them but they have plenty of talent to make up for it. This should be a good spot against a Pittsburgh team that at times is lost on the offensive end. Look for the Irish to have a great game plan, which executed will showcase their skill advantage over the Panthers.

Cleveland State +5

            No team has been effected more by transfers than Cleveland State who lost Grady to Wichita State and Trey Lewis to Louisville. Milwaukee has been a solid program for the Horizon league but I see value in Cleveland State after surrendering a double digit lead to explosive Green Bay in their last game. Milwaukee does not blow you away with their offense which should keep Cleveland State in this.

St. John's +11

            The Johnnies are continual double digit underdogs as they are in a complete overhaul process under Chris Mullin. The Golden Eagles are coming off a big upset over Providence which has pushed this line up probably a good 2.5 points from where it should be. The inconsistent Golden Eagles are virtually getting the same spread that Providence a top ten team had against St. John's last Saturday. Expect a hangover here and a hungry Johnnies team to capitalize similar to when they faced Syracuse.

Maryland -3.5

            This game is what I call a gut check for the Maryland Terrapins. Have they played up to the caliber of play they should be? No, but they're still a top five team and have a legitimate chance of grabbing a number one seed. This is the type of test game that they should be able to prevail. Wisconsin will look to slow the game down but I do not believe they have the defensive capabilities to limit the Terrapins penetration with Melo Trimble and company. Expect the Terrapins to have a wide edge at the free throw line.

Play Portland Trailblazers +10

            If you recall a couple of seasons ago as the Warriors were growing, they had some classic games against the Trailblazers. Big leads never were protected in this matchup. The Warriors small ball lineup should aid the Trailblazers who have an explosive offense at home. Grab the Blazers plus ten points.

Play Miami -5

            Miami is one of those teams that you can sense has upward capability in its near future. With as bad as the Suns have played defensively that should only aid in the Heat's advantages tonight down in Phoenix. Lastly, I've said it before but Phoenix is one of the poorest home teams on Friday nights for whatever reason over the last five-six years.

Play Toronto -2

            I tabbed the Raptors as a devalued team ATS but won't shift to an overreaction as a two point road favorite against the Wizards. Washington has grabbed us a couple of slim covers including last week against the Raptors and a few nights ago against Cleveland. Besides a Raptors fourth quarter offensive lull they had full control of that game. I expect a better sense of play from the Raptors second unit this time around. Grab Toronto -2.

Utah +9

            There's prime value on Utah tonight who seem to play up for competition one night and off the grid the next. After being dominated by the Spurs it'd seem like they're set for another downfall in Texas to Houston. Instead expect the Jazz to be able to hang with the Rockets who allow leads to slip just as fast as they got them. Grab the Jazz +9.

Louisville -6

            Louisville has the depth this year to win games on the road as such favorites. I like the improvement of sophomores Onuaku, Snider, and company. Graduate transfers Lee and Lewis make the Cardinal dangerous. NC State lacks the scoring ability to keep within this number.

Miss State +7

            The Aggies hope to continue their ascent from the 21st ranking as they take on Miss State tonight on the road. Yet I believe this is a spot where Ben Howland can get the contributions he needs from Newman and company to pull of an upset against a veteran Aggies team. Grab the value here as the Aggies are coming off impressive double digit wins.