Last week Navy caught a break on the road as they covered with a backdoor touchdown and two-point conversion. As ugly as they played it was a winnable performance against a similar octane offense as Central Florida’s in Memphis. Better execution and Navy can keep themselves in this game in similar fashion. The weakened American conference has a knack for boosting team’s AP ranking, and that is the case with Central Florida.

During the off-season the Western Conference grew in strength. While many teams have rising youth, the Mavs are a team still led by veteran Dirk Nowitzki. Behind him is strong uncertainty that will build behind rookie Dennis Smith Jr. In an opening night matchup you would not expect a mid-point line against a talented young Hawks team. Yet, look for the Mavericks to capitalize and take advantage of a home court edge.

The Warriors come in off another NBA championship after destroying the Cavaliers in last year’s NBA Finals. There’s no doubt there destined for another run but I’m always leery in backing a champion off the bat of a season. Houston lost their on ball strong guard defender in Patrick Beverly in a trade for Chris Paul. Bringing together chemistry of two talented guards is hard to do with Paul and Harden. Yet, I like the steps the Rockets role players took last season. They’ll match the Warriors role players and get enough from Harden/Paul to cover. Grab Houston.

I had this game as my third play on the NFL board via 5dimes early line of 7.5. That’s what we have here and will look for the Titans to respond with Mariota back under center. In all phases the Titans have under achieved since their blowout win over the Jaguars in week two. Indianapolis just doesn’t have the personnel to keep up with a Titans team that is far better than their play/record indicates.

The Bears played about as ugly as one team can on Monday night, and now will travel on the road to Baltimore. It’s safe to say that the Ravens veteran defense will be primed for the miscues that Mitch Trubisky showcased Monday. Still, the Ravens have not been consistent enough offensively to warrant this spread. Grab Chicago to keep covering within the number. 

The Vikings injuries continue to mount. After losing rookie running back Dalvin Cook they’ll now be without Sam Bradford and Stefon Diggs. That’s going to put a high burden on the shoulder of Case Keenum who has not looked comfortable in recent outings. Off of Green Bay’s stout win look for the Vikings experience defensively against Aaron Rodgers to shine. Back the home Vikings to cover the field goal here.

Can the Bruins reshape their season coming off a bye week? They’ll travel to Tucson Saturday against a reinvigorated Wildcats team. Against Colorado last week the Wildcats displayed the type of play many expected under Rich Rodriguez. The victory was against an underperforming Buffaloes team. Grab UCLA to bring a higher level of intensity and get the road win against Arizona.

Out in the Sun Belt Saturday action lies with UL Monroe as a touchdown favorite against Georgia State. Georgia State will look to lean on senior quarterback Connor Manning’s shoulders against a potent Louisiana Monroe team. Both teams are on win streaks but expect Monroe’s defensive edge to dictate the ATS outcome. Grab Louisiana Monroe. 

A battle of top twenty-five teams in the American Conference squares two teams with completely different styles. Memphis is coming off an unchallenged blowout against UConn last Friday. While one may expect their potent play of 70 points to pose a challenge to Navy, they’ll be thwarted at home. Grab Navy.

The Hurricanes miracle victory last week came in the final ten seconds against Florida State. After a victory as such a hangover factor could be in the works against a talented Georgia Tech team. Instead look for the win to inject new life into the Hurricane. Grab Miami.

My theory on backup quarterbacks is they show their true colors after two starts. Ideally Minnesota never wanted to be in the situation of having to start Case Keenum. After a great performance against the Bucs he did not show the merit in a winnable game against the Lions. With Dalvin Cook’s season ending injury it appears the Vikings may be rushing back Sam Bradford. The Bears get a fresh start by starting Mitchell Trubisky. He won’t be the center piece Monday but expect the Bears defense to carry over the Lions game plan on a week ago.

Monday, we'll grab the home Miami Heat as they look to bounce back from a poor showing against Brooklyn. They will take on a Charlottes Hornets team that has an extended five days of rest. The Hornets do have several key pieces in place that pushed a Dwayne Wade led Heat team to a seven game series two years ago. Still, look for the Heat to show signs of last years team ascension. Grab the Heat tonight. 

The Packers continue to face familiar opponents. In week two they met the Atlanta Falcons for the third time in a year in Atlanta, and will now travel to Dallas for the third time in a season and a half. Green Bay’s issues with their running game will put a high burden on Aaron Rodgers shoulders, but not to the degree that Dak Prescott is facing. Dallas seems to be stuck in a play call shield as they try to reconfigure what worked last season and isn’t this. That bodes to the strength of the veteran on field Packers team as well as the sideline experience coaching wise. Grab Green Bay. 

The Colts have shown very little offensively but are growing more and more comfortable with Jacoby Brissett. San Francisco has gained in ATS value with three straight covers against Seattle, LA, and Arizona. While they have been covering games it’s obvious the same play call connection between Coach Shanahan and Brian Hoyer is missing. Grab the Colts off their late Sunday night performance in Seattle.

Two seasons ago Washington State put themselves on the map with an overtime win as steep underdogs in Eugene. That performance was followed up by a blow out win in 2016 of 51-33 over Oregon. After an upset win over USC this is a turning point game for the Cougars to push themselves into the top ten. Instead, look for the seniors and coaching change to Willie Taggart to pay dividends for the home Ducks.

The Buffaloes find themselves amidst a two-game losing streak against a well-rested Arizona Wildcats team. Off a bye week the Wildcats last game was fifteen days ago on a Friday night against Utah. Without a doubt the Buffaloes offense has dropped off from last year’s showcase. With Arizona’s combined two losses by a mere nine points, one would expect this to be close. Instead look for the Buffaloes to execute on both sides of the football and win by double-digits.

Both Idaho and UL Lafayette are coming off bye weeks. UL Lafayette will get their starting quarterback in Jordan Davis back from injury. That’s not where oddsmakers have inflated this point spread. They did so based on the worst defense in football in UL Lafayette. Idaho’s four year senior starting quarterback in Matt Linehan should be able to pick apart the Rajun Cajuns. Still, I’m not impressed with Idaho’s play calling and sloppy turnovers. Grab the value on UL Lafayette.

During the regular season consecutive road games at Portland and Utah are extremely tough. With the Jazz already 2-0 at home in the pre-season, Phoenix will be in for a tough test against the depth of Utah. Still, there is too much room for value on the Suns side to ignore five points. Grab the Suns. 

An unordinary position lies for the Atlanta Hawks. They’ll be on the road for their third straight pre-season game. I find value here on the home Pistons based on the Hawks standout sixteen point victory over the Cavaliers in their last game. Though the Pistons struggled defensively in their opener look for an increased level of defense tonight.

Both Brooklyn and the Heat have jumped out to 1-0 records in the pre-season. This is a series that was dominated by the Heat last season, as most teams did against the lowly Nets. Though there are new faces in the Nets starting lineup there are enough players remaining that will serve a payback performance. Grab the Nets.

Both Oakland and Denver are coming off shaky week three performances. Denver’s continued distrust with quarterback Trevor Semien on the road impacted their chance to win against Buffalo. While Oakland will assuredly come out the gate with a stronger performance, this is a game that will be swung and won in the fourth quarter. Throughout his young career Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has been one of the best quarterbacks to ride against when poor performances rear their head. Expect Carr’s turnover issues from last week to continue. 

There is no doubt that Dallas has played a tough schedule to start the season. The same can not be said for the Rams. LA’s two wins have come against Indianapolis and San Francisco, which are a combined 1-5. Washington’s strong showing on the road in LA only benefits the attraction on Dallas here. With confidence and returning home for the first time since week one oddsmakers have baited this line a tad. Grab the Rams here to have an impactful game plan on both sides of the football to gain the cover.

Coach John Harbaugh has to be displeased with the Ravens efforts over the last six quarters of football. While the Ravens defeated the Browns in week two by fourteen points, the win was masked by red zone issues and five Browns turnovers. Jacksonville used that film to their advantage and continued to rack up yards on Baltimore’s defense for 410 yards. Yet, Baltimore’s defense has always had an ability to perform well against Pittsburgh as well as veteran quarterback Joe Flacco. Grab the value here on the home Ravens.

Excellent game plans against three conservative teams has catapulted San Diego State to 19th ranked and 4-0. San Diego State answered the difficult test of a road conference game in a narrow victory over Air Force last week. Now the shift is how will they respond on their home field against a MAC opponent. Coming off a victory over Nebraska on the road and continuing travel to California has created value on the Huskies side. Grab Northern Illinois. 

Every two to three years there is a powerhouse team that has a steep drop off. At 0-2, Florida State appears to be that team. After two weeks off from Hurricane Irma rust was apparent in last week’s loss to North Carolina State. Yet this point spread is a team can’t go 0-3 line versus reality. While Wake Forest offers a methodical game plan that suits Florida State they have the better defense to offset a fourth quarter melt down.

UMass is now 0-5 but has played respectable defense to hang in games all season long. In fact, all five of their losses are by ten points or less. Ohio has the attraction of rising sophomore quarterback Nathan Rourke but expect consecutive road games to play a role Saturday. The point spread is off here by a mere few points based on UMass’s winless season.

The Eagles played well in a loss to the Chiefs. Though it stands as a loss and puts them at 1-1, I believe they’re being downgraded in terms of the number. A win in Kansas City may have pushed this line north of 7.5-8 against the Giants. New York has a laundry list of issues that will continue to grow on Sunday. Grab the value on a Philadelphia team that is poised for an aggressive home division win.

A problematic week one performance at home by the Jets against Buffalo compounded last week with an embarrassing loss to the Raiders. On the opposite side the Dolphins gutted out a win over the Chargers on the road. With both teams traveling from California to New York, this has created an arguable point spread. While the fish should be favored a six point line is a bit of a stretch. Grab the points here.

Over the last several years the Saints have underachieved drastically. That isn’t a doubt, but they’ve also been a team to rise to the occasion in must-win situations. On the road after two abysmal performances this stands as a situation for a team to rise to the occasion. Carolina is 2-0 with both wins by six points or more, yet they haven’t been able to click on all cylinders. Expect that to occur again and the Saints to hang around.

Time and time again Appalachian State has been the circled team to topple the big schools. Instead they’ve disappointed with lopsided losses to Miami in 2016 and this year to Georgia 31-10. Last week’s 20-13 win as steep favorites to Texas State has put this line out of position a tad. As strong as Wake Forest has looked, expect a down to Earth performance before they embark in ACC play.

Expected offensive and defensive rust is to be displayed by Eastern Michigan Saturday. Their last game occurred fourteen days ago on September 9th in an upset win over the lowly Rutger Scarlet Knights. Against a dynamic Ohio offense the Eagles are going to need to show a surge in offense that they did not display in wins against Charlotte and Rutgers. Expect new wrinkles to be unveiled and for Eastern Michigan to take advantage of their rest.

Saturday, we’ll grab the road value on Idaho as they take on South Alabama. South Alabama has faced the tougher competition with games against Ole Miss and Oklahoma State. That rise in competition stands out to the weaker schedule of Idaho. Idaho struggled in consecutive losses including a home loss of 44-16 to UNLV. Yet, look for conference play to offer the familiarity needed to cover against South Alabama. Cimini’s Take, Idaho.

A small line lies with the Rams as they take on Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins Sunday. Unlike the majority of NFL teams it appears that a home crowd edge is not there for the Rams. Illustrating that fact was the media’s drawn out attention to the Rams cheap ticket prices and empty stadium in their week one 46-9 victory. Sidestep the crowd issues and grab the value on a Rams team oddsmakers will be chasing a new number on similar to the Cowboys/Vikings of last season.

A blowout victory on the road and ten days to prep for the Philadelphia Eagles are obvious swaying factors for the Chiefs. Yet, these are two teams that will be fully prepared based on the familiarity of Doug Pederson and Andy Reid’s prior history. While the Patriots lacked the skillset at wide receiver and speed on defense to negate the Chiefs, the Eagles flourish in that department. This is a classic reactionary point spread based on the Chiefs week one dominance and the Eagles opening the season with consecutive road games. Grab Philadelphia.

The Arizona Cardinals may have received what the doctor ordered in a week two matchup against the Colts. For three quarters the Cardinals looked in position to defeat a sound Detroit Lions team. It appears oddsmakers handicapped that performance over the Cardinals fourth quarter. Yet, not closing out games has been a continuous repetitive issue for the Cardinals. Although the Colts game plan won’t be high end, look for the Cardinals to defeat themselves again. Grab the points here.

The ra-ra emphasis after week one’s loss to Maryland worked for Texas Coach Tom Hermann. In week two they shutout San Jose State to the tune of 52-0. Yet, this week they’ll be facing the destiny of the future of the Longhorns program. Transformation growth as a true contender took the Trojans countless years. They’re finally out in front of media’s expectations and bookmakers. Grab the Trojans to continue to cash ATS. 

Often smaller conferences that bode well in early non-conference scheduling get an improper evaluation. New Mexico State played a tight game against Arizona State, and upset New Mexico for the second consecutive year. They performed above expectations in both of those games by neutralizing their opponents speed. In-conference against Troy expect the script to be flipped. Troy has excelled within the conference and has annihilated New Mexico State by a combined score of 104-13 the last two meetings. Cimini’s Take: Troy.

A battle in Ohio against MAC school Miami-Ohio and Cincinnati serves as this week’s trap line of the week. Without a doubt Miami-Ohio has the more fluid team on both sides of the football, and attention of the betting markets. Time and time again the Bearcats have been a major letdown under quarterback Hayden Moore in key and under the radar matchups. Yet, this is a spot where Hayden Moore can unmask some of his talent to keep the Bearcats within reach. Take the points here.

The first few weeks of the football season can create an over reaction from the betting markets. Clemson’s carry over value as National Champion grew with stout week one and week two performances. Seemingly the value here lies on Louisville’s perceived poor performances in close victories over Purdue and North Carolina. Look for the Cardinal to show their team growth as a whole as they tone down the pressure off of Lamar Jackson’s shoulders.

Minus former offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, Nick Saban has got the offense he wants. A more aggressive attack that can compliment their ferocious defense. The worry here is Colorado State senior quarterback Nick Stevens should be able to get late scores for a backdoor opportunity. Instead, expect the next in-line Alabama second and third unit players to treat their time on the field as one of their last opportunities to shine.

We’ve seen a massive point spread leap from the opening to closing line here. The home Washington State Cougars originally opened in the 15-15.5 range. To climb to 21 is a sign of an oddsmaker error. Yet, I’ll attribute the line move based on two embarrassing losses by Oregon State that had received public/sharp backing (Colorado State/Minnesota). After losing 48-14 to Minnesota last week expect Oregon State to finally start to look like a Pac-12 team. 

San Diego has always had a style of play that has been a thorn to the Denver Broncos. Adding to that notion is how difficult a week one game against a division opponent can be. While the Chargers have upgraded talent that is on par with the Broncos they have been an unstable franchise. Over the last five years the Broncos have won in week one and covered all matchups but a .5 hook loss to the Colts SNF in 2014. Cimini’s Take: Denver 

Russ Wilson is healthy and the Seahawks are back to being loaded on defense. On the other side Green Bay has kept their usual ways of development intact. Hardly any off-season signings were completed and their former starting tailback signed with the Seahawks. Week one is about finding the value on final drive teams, and Aaron $$ has displayed time and time again the ability to thrive in close games. Grab the Packers to finish this one late.

New regimes for the 49ers have not gone well over the last couple of seasons. Yet the big change for the 49ers was bringing in journeyman Brian Hoyer. The future is a work in progress but his stability is enough against a Carolina team that is still getting glory off of their 2015 season. Keep in mind new coach Kyle Shanahan has a history against the Panthers from his Falcons days, including the only team to upset the Panthers in 2015. Fresh on people’s minds was the beat down week two performance the Panthers put on the 49ers in San Francisco last season. Expect a different outcome as the Panthers continue to get in their own way.

An unusual game plan in week one from the Sun Devils masked some of their carry over issues from prior seasons. Against New Mexico State they made nearly zero defensive substitutions the entire game, and their offense did not show consistency. San Diego State does not have Donnel Pumphrey at running back anymore but has the better balanced team to get the point spread cover. They also have the mental edge knowing they can defeat a Pac-12 team from last year’s 45-40 victory over California. Cimini’s Take: Grab San Diego State.

The Houston Cougars make their season debut Saturday. Their debut was postponed by a week due to cancellation of their week one matchup against UTSA due to Hurricane Harvey. New Coach Major Applewhite will make his debut as well and looks to fill the void of former quarterback Greg Ward Jr. Arizona’s explosive offense will be a challenge for the Cougars but this is a spot where you lean on the line movement being proper. Cimini’s Take: Grab the Cougars.

A revenge game or spot is a term often verbalized in the betting markets. In all likelihood this is an off the radar non marquee matchup that is sure to attract that lingo. Last year the Aggies upset the Lobos as 13-13.5 point underdogs at New Mexico.  In that game the Aggies used the Lobos aggressive offensive attack against them. It was a similar style witnessed last week in a six point loss to ASU. Grab the Aggies familiarity to hold course again. Cimini’s Take: New Mexico State +7.5

Brian Kelly has endured a luxury most coaches at high level programs aren’t afforded. Time. Amidst suspensions and talented teams not meeting expectations, the Irish have continued to show patience with Kelly. Entering the season right inside the top twenty-five has lowered the program expectations which could be the strength of the Irish. Georgia continuously falters against top competition and will fail to keep up with the octane Irish. Cimini’s Take: Notre Dame.

Week one’s marquee games have taken a bit of thunder away from week one’s Texas A&M at UCLA matchup. Last year’s matchup featured an overtime thriller that the Aggies pulled off 31-24. With the Aggies unsettled at quarterback and heading on the road to UCLA this spot would seem advantageous for the Josh Rosen led Bruins. Except that Rosen struggled with three interceptions against the Aggies last year and only played in six games last season. His last start was October 8th. Expect almost a full year layoff and pressure to perform well to hinder the Bruins and Rosen. Cimini’s Take: Texas A&M

Virginia Tech -4

Making his debut for the West Virginia Mountaineers is quarterback Will Grier. Grier has the attraction of SEC eyes and the fact that he was 6-0 as a starter for Florida. Coach Dana Holgorsen is known for showcasing an arsenal of prolific offensive packages. Can Grier match the skillset necessary to run Holgorsen’s offense? Not in game one against a top notch Virginia Tech defense that’s downgraded from a point spread perspective due to the team starting a redshirt freshman quarterback in Josh Jackson. Cimini’s Take: Virginia Tech

Ole Miss -23.5

The resignation of former Coach Huge Freeze was a shock that figures to add value to Saturday’s opener. The Rebels are coming off an unimpressive 5-7 season, in which they struggled to defeat Sun Belt opponent Georgia Southern 37-27. Saturday’s opponent in South Alabama has vast experience with senior tailback Xavier Johnson and quarterback Dallas Davis. Yet, expect Ole Miss to make a statement and capitalize off of turnovers. Cimini’s Take: Ole Miss.

Game one's take will side with the Cavaliers. A healthy Steph Curry and addition of Kevin Durant have spiked this spread based on the two past Finals. Yet, I look for two keys to stand out in game one. Quietly over the last two postseasons the Cavaliers have won by the merit of playing Golden State offense. Last post-season they shot 40% from three point range and this year a league best 44% (Five percentage points better than the Warriors). Yet the biggest key in game one hails with the Cavaliers small ball lineup. Tristan Thompson's versatility proved critical last year as he averaged ten points and ten rebounds a game last NBA Finals. Not to mention Kevin Love's natural all around game as a big. The addition of Kevin Durant was the eye-popping move but losing size with Festus Ezeli, Andrew Bogut, Harrison Barnes, and Anderson Varejao leaves the Warriors with a high dependance on Durant and Green to rebound. Grab the Cavaliers to cover game one.

Kawhi Leonard's serious ankle injury has flipped the series completely. Without him in game two the Spurs were unable to put forth any type of challenge. Dating back to game one when Leonard left in the third quarter the Spurs haven't resembled a playoff team. Yet, in game two support ATS was on the Spurs and failed miserably. Here, look for a better effort and value on a two point increase.

The Cavs came out ready and on fire in game one. With the Celtics in a must win situation this may seem like an opportune spot to grab the Celtics. Instead, look for the Cavaliers mission of excellence to continue. Proper rest is on the Cavaliers side and that will pay the difference tonight ATS.

Mistakes happened in the post-season linger. With that being said the Wizards great play through three games is bound to come to a screeching halt Sunday. While the Wizards did creep back into this series on game three, they dug themselves a hole blowing games one and two. This is where Boston can seize full control of the series and head back home for game five. Grab the value here on the Celtics off of game three's blowout loss.

There's been a little movement here ATS for good reason between the Warriors and Jazz. Golden State has dominated the first two games yet did not cover games one and two. With the Jazz strong home court ways this may be a spot to see them get back on track. Yet a veteran team like the Warriors wants to leave little room for the Jazz to have a confident surge. Look for the Warriors to make a statement here through four quarters.

Seizing control of the series was a possibility for the Wizards, but they failed to guard the perimeter in game one. Offensively they have the flow to cause problems for the Celtics, who are riding a five game playoff win streak. That's factored into tonights spread by a solid 1.5-2 points. Grab the value here on the Wizards.

After looking down and out after three games, the Raptors have switched gears and exposed the Bucks in games four and five. With the Bucks defense weakening it has regained the Raptors confidence. Yet, bettors can't over react to a lopsided game five. The Bucks at home can frustrate the Raptors into poor shots. Grab the Bucks.

Typically a veteran laden team in a mismatched series will prevail in a big way for one moment in a series. We saw that from the Grizzlies over the Spurs two nights ago. For Saturday expect more of what we saw from games one and two from the Spurs with much better defense. Grab the Spurs.

The Pacers have tested the Cavaliers for six of eight quarters in the post-season. In a do or die game this is a tricky spot for a Cavaliers team that has no new wrinkles for the Pacers to identify. Look for Indiana to cover the small number with proper scoring balance amongst their core starting five.

We've seen in the East how off the ATS number is for the eighth seed versus the one. The same can be said in the West with the top seed Warriors still showcasing reluctancy to play tenacious offense and defense for four quarters. The Blazers were fortunate to get into the post-season and have a nucleus of core talent that's hungry to develop. Grab the Trailblazers. 

Sunday, look for value on Oklahoma City's side on the road in Houston. Thunder Coach Billy Donovan comes in devalued because of a seismic shift in personnel from last season. Lost from last post-season were his brilliant in-game and game to game adjustments that curtailed Dallas, San Antonio, and nearly Golden State. Grab the Thunder to have the road defense needed to cover this number. 

Two narrow wins helped the Wizards end a three-game skid. Yet, they needed to erase a twelve point halftime deficit against the Hornets and beat an undermanned Knicks team by three points. They'll face a Heat team Saturday that is in complete desperation mode as they sit one game back of two remaining playoff spots in the Eastern conference. Still, it's hard to ignore their extended road trip as they were in Charlotte on Wednesday, Toronto Friday, and DC tonight. Grab the Wizards to hold their home edge tonight.

A two game losing streak by the Hornets has all but eliminated their chances of getting into the playoffs. Their opponent Saturday is also on a costly two-game losing streak in the Boston Celtics. Just a few days ago the Celtics were looked at as the top seed in the East, and now could be in jeopardy of slipping to the fourth seed. While the Hornets haven't shown the defense of last year's playoff team they're still one of the more dangerous offensive. Grab the Hornets to continue the Celtics end of season slide.

The Heat showed some upward signs as they defeated the Hornets in runaway fashion on Wednesday. Yet, they were coming off multiple days rest while the Hornets were playing in a back to back. Toronto on the other hand erased a steep deficit to win on the road against the Pistons. It was Kyle Lowry's return to the lineup. As the playoffs approach this may seem a spot to back the Raptors as they look to gain more momentum. Instead grab the Heat who will aim to gain in the playoff race. 

Thursday, there is value to be had on the home Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers have inserted both Justin Anderson and Timothe Cabarrot into the starting lineup as their NBA draft mindset is clear. All the while the Bulls have found themselves in the playoff hunt as they currently sit in the seventh seed. In fact, they're only two games back of the fifth seed Bucks. Yet, the Bulls are the type of team that can lose their focus for four quarters. Expect that to happen tonight as they face new faces 

Miami Heat +2

The Heat have stumbled as of late losing five of their last eight games. Wednesday's road game against the Hornets is a crucial game in the Eastern conference for playoff seeding. Both the Heat(1 game) and Hornets (2 games) are on the outside looking in as the regular season winds down. Look for the Heat to take advantage of the Hornets playing in a back to back scenario and win this game with offense versus defense.

Gonzaga -6.5

The cinderella story of South Carolina featured perfect match ups for them. They ran through guard heavy teams before facing an Elite 8 SEC conference opponent in Florida. The Zags will be a different story. They can offset any defensive adjustment South Carolina may have in-game with a balanced inside-outside attack. They also have the ability to play at a fast or slow pace tempo. That'll be a challenge for a South Carolina team that has exceeded their regular season offensive and defensive standards. Grab the Zags to head to the title game.

The Clippers head to Phoenix tonight after winning in cruise control fashion on Wednesday against the Wizards. Witnessing teams rest in back to back scenarios recently may leave the window open on a steep road spread tonight. Yet, we'll still tail a Clippers team that has depth in line from several players that had to step up when the Clippers were ravaged with injuries. Grab the Clippers to tackle a Suns team that has snuck in ATS at the tail end of games recently.

The Hawks free fall has garnered seven consecutive losses. The loss of Paul Millsap indefinitely has plagued them, but they'll also be without Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore. Sunday, minus all three the Hawks last by fifteen on their home floor against the Nets. Yet, we'll grab the value here on the Hawks against a Suns team that has lost eight straight and is at the tail end of a five game road trip.

The SEC has three of the six remaining teams left in the tournament, with perennial power Kentucky as the mainstay. That's what was expected from the ACC which suffered a string of losses to leave only North Carolina left. This North Carolina team may not have as high a ceiling on a game to game basis as last year's team but it has bought in defensively. They'll show the difference from allowing 103 points earlier this season in a loss to Kentucky. Grab North Carolina.

An oddsmaker number conundrum is in line for Saturday. Dallas comes off a home win as sizable dogs to the LA Clippers. On the other hand the Raptors are coming off a road win in dominant fashion against the Miami Heat as 4.5 point underdogs. Although the Raptors are twelve games ahead of the Mavericks, I'll side with their offense defeating a Raptors defense that still is makeshift post All-Star trades.

During the regular season perhaps no team was looked down upon in the top fifteen as much as Baylor. Discounted wins has led to them playing with a chip on their shoulder. South Carolina on the other hand stormed up the charts with two solid tournament wins and has the fixture Coach people know in Frank Martin. After a tight win against USC, buyers may be quick to jump on the first weekend's darling in South Carolina. Yet, look for South Carolina's recent flirt of excelled fast pace play to burn them unexpectedly Friday. Grab Baylor. 

The Cavaliers continue on the road Friday against the Charlotte Hornets. Over recent years the Cavaliers have owned the Hornets with several double digit wins. Seemingly after a blowout road loss in Denver this would seem an appropriate spot to take the Cavaliers against the struggling Hornets. Instead, grab the continued road grind value against the Cavaliers. Grab the Hornets.

An adjusted line comes in on the Michigan Wolverines against the Oregon Ducks. Will the time off bode to the advantage of the Wolverines? In a tournament format oddsmakers are leaning that way. Here though I'll gravitate towards the experience of the Ducks to topple a strong sweet sixteen run by the Wolverines. Grab the Ducks.

Post All Star break the Celtics have continued to elevate their level of play. Their rising bench play has only continued with Avery Bradley at full usage. Coming off a buy low ATS cover and dominant win over the Wizards, has created ATS value against them tonight. Indiana's demise this season has been an 11-24 road record. Yet, they're currently the sixth seed in the East and a game back for the fifth spot. Grab the Pacers as a Wednesday value play.

Brooklyn +6

The Nets struggles all season long have been well documented at 13-56. For possible playoff seeding this is a matchup that the Pistons can ill-afford to lose. Yet, I'm not going to ignore the Pistons inabilities on the road of an 11-22 record. Grab the value on the home Nets.

On the road Sunday night the Pacers were walloped by the Raptors. After receiving public/sharp support in that loss, it's always a tough spot in a back to back scenario. Yet, the Pacers are who they are, which is a poor road team ( 11-24 and above average (24-10) at home. Grab them Monday to cover against the surging Jazz. 

Sometimes winning in poor fashion is a key sign. Yesterday the Wizards protected a big lead by preserving the minutes of their key stars. The move was made in anticipation of a back to back game. Instead of anticipating the roster showing fresh legs I expect a flip result. Grab the Hornets to take care of the Wizards.

Florida State 

In round one we saw the Musketeers put forth the type of wins that led to their success in the regular season. One strong run swung a close game against Maryland. Facing Florida State should be much different. Leonard Hamilton uses a deep rotation with athletes that can equally defend/score. Grab Florida State to showcase how close to the bubble Xavier truly was.

Northern Kentucky +20

Two takes on this game. One being the obvious small state school versus the mecca in Kentucky. This is the classic round one baited favorite matchup. In fact we even have a first round taste of the Horizon (Green Bay) vs the SEC (Texas A&M) in round one last year. A&M cruised against a formidable Green Bay team. Yet, I believe this Northern Kentucky is as dangerous as a double digit loss team in this tourney. Grab the Norse.

Marquette-Pick

Any time you have a team playing in their home state in the tournament it is difficult to evaluate. South Carolina has that today with the game being played in Greensville. Yet, this is where Marquette's difficulties on the road in the tough Big East should boost their value. They went 3-6 on the road with six of their overall twelve losses decided by six points or less. In a first round where many could argue seedings this is not the case. Marquette will play and hold the advantage as a true seven seed over South Carolina the ten seed.

Consecutive losses by the Wizards have drawn attention to the decline side on the Wizards ATS. Furthering matters is the fact that John Wall possibly could miss with a foot injury suffered in their home loss to the Mavericks. Facing a team such as the Bulls who can score a high amount is a troubling sign. Yet, grab the Wizards who have put proper balance in line to prepare for such situations if Wall is out. Grab Washington. 

Perhaps no first round team faces an opponent they would not want more than Virginia Tech. Wisconsin's sound balance and ability to play any style of tempo is a considerable edge factor. Also Virginia Tech exuded as much effort as any team to round out the regular season strong to get in the tournament. Wisconsin will play to the level and keep their label as wrongly seeded. Grab Wisconsin.

Earlier before the season I discussed change over in college hoops amongst the non power schools. The Atlantic 10 has seen a shift a step back in play while out west the WCC is growing. That'll be a factor today against little known St. Mary's against yearly tournament strong force VCU. Keep in mind Shaka Smart's last VCU recruits will step on the court one last time, after three consecutive strong tournaments. Grab the value here on St. Mary's.

Getting in the tournament is not the accomplishment the Wildcats were looking for. They'll put together a strong effort against a Vanderbilt team that peaked towards the end of the season. Facing the Wildcats tough discipline style on both ends of the floor is not a skill set of the SEC. Grab the Wildcats.

The Gators strength defensively should be enough to get past a solid ETSU team. ETSU has all the danger elements you look for in an opening round upset. Yet, defensively they are prone to giving up long stretches of baskets. Added to the mix with Coach McCall's former presence in the SoCo conference, and you can expect the Gators to pull away in this one.

Over recent years Fresno State has been a popular team in the NIT/NCAA Tournament. Facing an up and coming TCU team would seem to bode for the heavy underdogs. Yet, Jamie Dixon is one of the best coaches at taking away team's strengths offensively. Look for the Bulldogs to be overwhelmed on the road.

Tonight we'll grab value on Georgia Tech against Indiana. Indiana's main downfall all season was the inability to play up to the level of subpar opponents. That theme should re-occur tonight against a Georgia Tech team that grew ahead of schedule under Josh Pastner. Look for the Yellow Jackets to gain the cover.

The Pacers embark on a road trip Tuesday as they travel to New York City. This is a series that the Knicks have the upper hand with two of three wins on the year. Furthermore, the Pacers haven't won consecutive games since February 6th. That's created value on a number that's much smaller than it should be. Grab Indiana in Madison Square Garden tonight.

Sunday, we'll grab the home value on the Indiana Pacers. The red-hot Miami Heat continue to gain confidence and close in on playoff positioning. After a big win yesterday against the Toronto Raptors in which the Heat were able to rest their starters in the fourth period. Still, look for the Pacers to control tempo and gain a home win tonight.

We'll grab the championship value here on the Irish. Both the Blue Devils and Irish have eight losses with strength of schedule heavily favored towards Duke's side. Compound the Blue Devils consecutive wins as underdogs against Louisville and UNC and you may think the Blue Devils are peaking. Instead I believe their coaching executed terrific game plans that were enough to come back from steep deficits. Against the veteran Irish look for Notre Dame to exploit the advantages Louisville and UNC had but were unable to finish. Grab the Irish.

Saturday, we'll eye the Detroit Pistons at home against the New York Knicks. Over the recent weeks the Knicks have played a more disciplined brand of basketball. Coming into tonight's game with three days of rest would seem like a great spot to be refreshed on the road. Yet, the Pistons at 32 wins cannot afford a loss. Currently in the 7th seed three teams are right behind with 31 wins to bump them out of playoff position. Grab Detroit to play above their record Saturday.

It's a quick turn around game for the Rams against Davidson. As they faced each other just six days ago in a close overtime affair. In tournaments teams can get hot and rise to the occasion and that appears to be the leap that Davidson is taking. Yet, grab the Rams to dig in defensively and thwart the rising offense of Davidson.

In the Atlantic Ten's night cap we'll side with a George Washington team that has lost two prior match ups this season against Richmond. On a neutral site look for George Washington's experience to lend the upper hand ATS, as they showcased some new wrinkles offensively in their last matchup against Richmond.

Friday the new-look Toronto Raptors travel to take on an Atlanta Hawks team that survived a close scare against Brooklyn. That's created value against a Raptors team that has a 17-15 away record, and a Hawks team that's been shaky ATS for a large portion of the past month. Grab Atlanta to turn the corner and cover this small number.

Tonight we'll grab the value on OKC who has lost value by losing four consecutive games. With their main stars resting San Antonio impressed with a dominant comeback win yesterday against the Kings. Yet, we saw last year in the playoffs what kind of level Russ Westbrook can get to against the Spurs. Look for the home value edge that bettors looked for from OKC last game (Loss to Portland) to be the main story tonight.

A neutral site opening line of 6.5 was nearly identical to the opening line of Virginia Tech vs Florida State's regular season matchup (5.5). In both instances the number rose quickly on Florida State's side. For the Hokies, no other top ACC team gives them as much problems as Florida State. Their length and athleticism counter a Hokies roster that feeds off of the ability to slash and out hustle opponents. Although the Hokies are a dangerous team this is the wrong matchup for them. Grab Florida State.

This will be the third matchup between the Cavaliers and Panthers. Each team has won a game thus far. While the Panthers eked out a win Tuesday, they did so with a subpar offensive effort. Look for the Cavaliers strong defense to keep the Panthers at bay and grab the cover in Brooklyn.

Wednesday the Atlanta Hawks continue a home stand with their fifth game in a row. They'll take on the Nets who are a disastrous 4-27 on the road. This is also their seventh consecutive road game, which started on the west coast. Yet, we'll grab the value here on the NBA's worst team to hang around a Hawks team that's been out of sorts since trading Kyle Korver.