9* Montreal (2:35 ET):  Carolina is a team that I've made it clear that is somewhat undervalued due to the fact they rank very high in both Corsi (2nd) and Fenwick (4th).  They made that assertion look pretty smart by going to Winnipeg and winning 5-3 (+115 on the ML) Friday night. But what about their chances of pulling consecutive upsets on the road? I don't think they're very high. Montreal, despite being in a tailspin w/o goaltender Carey Price, actually still ranks 3rd in both Corsi and Fenwick, meaning they have the possession numbers to match the Hurricanes and this is somewhat ideal draw.  The Habs finally won one last night (5-1 vs. Edmonton) and I look for that to carry over into this afternoon.

Going back before the All-Star Break, the Canadiens have put forth at least 30 shots in five consecutive games. They had a 36-24 edge in that department last night as they dominated the Oilers. Interesting is that the franchise has a long history of playing afternoon games on Super Bowl weekend. They are 26-18-5 in such affairs, including yday's win. It's been five straight games w/ a power play goal for Montreal and while the last time they recorded B2B wins was w/ Price between the pipes, the record this season when off a win by two or more goals is 12-5. 

In addition to the similar possession numbers, something else that makes this a better than expected matchup for the Habs is that the 'Canes are plagued by some of the same goaltending issues.  The collective save percentage of Carolina goaltenders this year is just .900, which is just 27th in the league. Cam Ward is most likely to get the start this afternoon and he has poor career marks here in Montreal w/ a 3.95 goals against average and .873 save percentage his last six starts.  It was basically one big period Friday in Winnipeg and note that the 'Canes are only 5-8 SU this year after scoring 4+ goals the previous game.  Also, remember that they lost at Calgary in their first game after the Break.  9* Montreal

10* Nashville (8:05 ET): Trouble is starting to set in for Nashville, whose 56 points have them in a precarious fifth place in tough Central. Because the Pacific is so bad this year, it is very likely that both "Wild Card" spots in the Western Conference will come from the Predators' division.  Winnipeg is probably a non-factor at this point, but currently the Preds have just a one-point lead over Minnesota. With the Wild having dropped four in a row themselves, Nashville needs to start taking advantage of these home games. Usually a "safe bet" here at Bridgestone Arena, the team has dropped B2B games on home ice, including an ugly 6-3 loss to Philadelphia on Thursday. But I think they'll turn it around here against San Jose.

The Sharks have been trending in a positive direction of late w/ a 7-1-2 record their L10 games and that has them second in the aforementioned weak Pacific.  But they still only have two more points on the season than the Preds and I question just how much longer they'll be able to continue this stellar play on the road.  A 17-7-2 record away from home is the league's second best, topped by only Washington.  But the Sharks aren't even in the Capitals' class.  Consider that San Jose has not won here in Nashville in their last five tries.  The Preds also had the league's second most home wins last season. 

As mentioned above though, Nashville has been struggling recently on home ice.  In their first game after the All-Star Break, they were shutout here by St. Louis and then came Thursday night's disaster vs. the Flyers.  Perhaps the Break came at the wrong time for this team because going into it they had won four in a row, allowing just one goal in each game.  Despite what the final score said Thursday, the Predators actually somewhat dominated w/ a 40-19 edge in shots. That makes a 6-3 loss all the more head-scratching. Despite recent form, I give the Preds the edge in goal here as Pekka Rinne has allowed 1 or 0 goals seven of the last eight times he's faced the Sharks while Martin Jones has just a 3.13 goals against average the last three times he's faced Nashville.  10* Nashville

8* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET):  I used the Lightning in their last game and they came through for me (3-1 win vs. Detroit), so I'll come right back w/ them again as tonight Pittsburgh comes calling. Currently, Tampa Bay is in a little bit better of a position when it comes to the playoffs as their 60 points have them safe and tied for second place in the Atlantic.  Pittsburgh, who has 57 points, is fifth in the Metro and fighting for a Wild Card spot.  They too came out of the All-Star Break looking impressive (beat Ottawa 6-5), their fourth win in a row overall. But the Lightning have been even hotter, winning 9 of 10, and being that they're on home ice tonight, they get the nod.

Scoring six goals, which the Penguins did Tuesday, looks impressive. But consider they also gave up five (not good!) and the offensive performance vs. Ottawa looks a little less impressive when you consider that the Sens just gave up seven more goals last night (at home!) to Edmonton.  Here, they are likely going to be w/o Evgeni Malkin (tomorrow too) and he is the team leader in both goals (23) and points (49).  Malkin had a hat trick Tuesday vs. Ottawa, so he'll clearly be missed.  Keep in mind that the Pens were already relatively thin at the center position. Making matters even more difficult here is they must deal w/ an outstanding goaltender, Ben Bishop, who carries a .927 save percentage into tonight's contest.

Tampa Bay is 5th in the league in goals allowed and has given up just 20 in the L10 games overall. Bishop has clearly been the driving force behind that, giving up just three goals in his last three home starts.  He made 24 saves Wednesday vs. Detroit, a game that the Lightning really controlled throughout.  I would expect their offense to come alive here as they scored five times on just 25 shots when they hosted the Penguins three weeks ago. Yes, they won despite being outshot, but Pittsburgh did the same to them just two weeks prior at the Igloo. The Penguins' goaltending is also a far greater concern as they've now given up four or more goals in four of the last seven games.  Marc-Andre Fleury has a poor .893 save percentage his L4 starts, yet the team has somehow managed to go 4-0.  8* Tampa Bay

8* Los Angeles (10:05 ET):  After stumbling somewhat going into the All-Star Break, LA came out like gangbusters on Tuesday, blowing out Arizona 6-2.  Having dropped B2B home games and this one being against a main rival, I don't expect there to be any "let up" whatsoever from the Pacific Division leaders. Yes, the Kings still have a comfortable nine-point lead in the division race, but I'm sure they still remember dropping four of five games to Anaheim last season. The first meeting this year, which took place at The Pond, did end up in the Kings favor (3-2), but the Ducks haven't lost since, winning four straight. However, LA is still clearly the better team in my mind and should dominate here on home ice.

The Kings always bring strong possession numbers to the table. This year, they rank #1 in Corsi and #2 in Fenwick.  Here at home, the gap between shots forced vs. allowed widens fairly dramatically. They average 33.1 per game themselves, which is a higher average than what any team averages for the season. They also only allow 25.3 shots per game, which would be fewer than any other team allows on a per game basis overall this season. With those numbers plus a top notch goaltender in Jonathan Quick, I'm a bit stunned to see the Kings only 15-9-1 at the Staples Center. Quick had one bad game recently, but still is the driving force behind the team ranking 3rd in goals allowed and he is 6-1-2 his L9 regular season home starts vs. Anaheim (1.82 goals against average).

I wasn't surprised at all to see Anaheim struggle out of the gate this season. This was a club that greatly overachieved in 2014-15 thanks to some tremendous "puck luck" and a phenomenal record in one-goal games. The mid-season call up of goalie John Gibson has keyed this mid-season turnaround, but I still wonder about the team's ability to score on a consistent basis, particularly on the road where they still are only averaging 1.7 goals per game.  The loss to the Kings on January 17th represents the only time the Ducks have fallen over the L7 games, but a one-goal win over San Jose Tuesday was a bit lucky (outshot 32-25). Also, the Ducks still do rank 30th in the league in goals per game. 8* Los Angeles

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): Yes, the Maple Leafs are still the last place team in the Atlantic. But I don't think that there's any denying they are an improved team from last year's miserable campaign. That's reflected in their overall possession numbers (8th in Corsi, 11th in Fenwick) and if that doesn't sound all that impressive to you, consider that they were 29th in Corsi & 30th in Fenwick two years ago and near the bottom again in 2014-15.  Coming out of the Break, the Leafs picked up a surprise OT win at Boston (were +155 on the ML) and tonight I like them in the price range at home. New Jersey has managed to claw its way back into the playoff race, but I question their ability to stay in contention given how few shots they are averaging.

The Devils are, in fact, last in the league in shots per game at 24.2. The gap that exists between them and the 29th place team (Arizona) is 3.0 shots/game. Don't think that's significant? Consider that the gap between the #6 team (which is Toronto) and #29 is 3.5 shots/game!  Simply put, if you aren't getting the puck at the net on a regular basis, it's difficult to win consistently in this league.  I realize that New Jersey has managed to win four of their last five games (beat the Rangers, 3-2, Tuesday night), but during that time they've averaged a minuscule 22.4 shots per game. Somehow, they've managed to score an average of 3.2 goals (shooting percentage of 14.3%!), which is simply an unsustainable ratio. I just don't know how far goaltender Corey Schneider can continue to carry this team. Consider that there have been only two games since X-Mas where the Devils had 25+ shots on goal!

Because of the All-Star Break,  Toronto hasn't gotten to play many games at home lately (just two in L3 weeks). They were outshot by the Bruins Tuesday, but that shouldn't be an issue here. The Devils rank 29th in Corsi and 30th in Fenwick and had to score twice on the power play in their last game in order to pull off the victory. With Schneider drawing all the accolades, underrated is the fact that Leafs' goaltender James Reimer brings in a .932 save percentage this year.  Toronto may have the fewest # of regulation wins in the league, but their nine OT/shootout losses are most in the Eastern Conference. I like them a lot here. 10* Toronto

8* Tampa Bay (8:05 ET): So these are two of the three teams in the Atlantic tied for second place w/ 58 points. Judging solely by goal differential, Detroit would appear to be the "odd team out" as they've actually been outscored this season while Tampa Bay (+13) and Boston (+15) are both in the black.  I feel that the Red Wings have been one of the league's biggest overachievers to this point as they rank in the bottom 10 in Fenwick and give up more shots than they take. A 14-6-3 road record is a real surprise and something I expect to start regressing to the mean.  Meanwhile, the Lightning got hot right before the All-Star Break, winning 8 of 10. Having dropped a pair of games in the Motor City earlier this season, I expect this game will carry a great deal of importance for them. I'm on the home team in this one.

Tampa Bay has a great shot at continuing its recent success after the Break as it's still a home heavy stretch of games. They've won five in a row on home ice to improve to 15-8-2 here this season. That includes wins over a pair of first place teams, Florida and Chicago.  Goalie Ben Bishop continues to lead the way w/ a .926 save percentage in 36 starts, plus he's posted a 1.22 goals against average his L4 home starts vs. Detroit.  An offense that led the league in 2014-15 in goals per game still only ranks 14th , but an average of 33.0 shots over the last five games shows that they are doing the right things. When playing w/ three or more days rest this season, the Lightning are a perfect 5-0.

Without Bishop between the pipes, Tampa Bay posted a 1-0 shutout of Toronto in their final game before the Break. That's bad news for the Red Wings as the Lightning are 2-0 this year following a shutout victory. I'm honestly surprised that there have been so few shutout victories for this team. Detroit, just 1-3 SU this season when playing w/ 3+ days rest, has actually not taken the ice since last Monday. They could come out rusty here. Petr Mrazek has been outstanding in goal for them, but it was actually Jimmy Howard in goal for the two wins over TB earlier this year. I think that both Mrazek and the team's penalty killing is due to regress here against a team finally hitting its stride. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Washington (7:35 ET):  I don't think that there's any denying who the best team in the Eastern Conference is right now.  The Capitals are way out in front w/ 74 points and despite tonight being a battle of division leaders, we have a prohibitive favorite and for good reason. Atlantic Division leader Florida was clearly one of the bigger overachievers in the entire league during the first half, but it's notable that they have a goal differential that's only half of what the Caps have. Despite their division lead, the Panthers are bottom 10 in both Corsi and Fenwick, which doesn't speak well to their overall level of play. They've been outshot this season and average only 24.5 shots per game on the road. All division leaders are not created alike.

Keep in mind that Washington has 33 wins in regulation. No other Eastern Conference team has more than 25.  What's really impressive is the top team in the Western Conference (Chicago) has 70 points, but they have played six more games than the Caps!  No team is even close to Washington's league low 12 defeats (only eight in regulation). Every other team in the league has more regulation losses than the Caps have total losses. The Stars have the second fewest total losses in the league w/ 19.  While they did drop an overtime decision at Philadelphia in the final game before the Break, they had gone 7-1-1 their last nine games previous to that and there has been only ONE time all season that the Caps have dropped consecutive contests!

Washington is 1st in goals scored, 2nd in goals allowed, 1st on the power play and 4th on the penalty kill. Florida is tops among goals allowed, but offensively they are lagging and I question how long they can maintain their scoring average while at the same time averaging so few shots per game. The Panthers likely feel pretty good about themselves coming into this one, knowing Alex Ovechkin won't play for Washington (suspension) and they beat the Caps earlier this year. But here in D.C., they've dropped 10 straight and have lost three in a row overall on the road. Remember that it's often wise to "sell" on news such as Ovechkin's suspension, which often times creates an overreaction in the marketplace. 8* Washington

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):  It's great to have NHL back, right?  That being said, Montreal probably wishes that the All-Star Break would have extended a few more weeks, which is when they expect goaltender Carey Price back. Without Price, the Habs have fallen off quite dramatically after a strong start to the season. Consider that they were 9-0 and 19-4-3 at various points. Since Price went down w/ his knee injury, which was all the way back on Thanksgiving, the team has won just seven times in 26 games.  That's not good, obviously. Before the break, they dropped seven of eight, including B2B 5-2 losses to the worst team in the league, Columbus. As you'd expect, goaltending has been the main issue.  I don't like their chances tonight in Philadelphia. 

The Flyers, like the Canadiens, currently find themselves on the outskirts of playoff contention.  Their 50 points are the second fewest in the Metro right now, but actually only two back of the Habs, which shows just how far Montreal has fallen. In their final game before the Break, Philly picked up a big overtime win against the best team in the East, Washington. It was the same 4-3 score when they beat Montreal back on January 5th. They outshot the Habs 31-24 that day. Goaltending, whether it's Steve Mason or Michael Neuvirth, has been strong of late, particularly during this 6-3-1 stretch the team is on. After scoring 4+ goals their previous game, the Flyers are 6 -3 this season.

There's really no area where Montreal isn't struggling right now. Without Price, play between the pipes has fallen off dramatically. They have given up an average of 3.1 goals per game over their last 27 contests. Over the last five games, the team's save percentage is a woeful .835, an unfathomably bad number. The offense has failed to pick up the pace, averaging just 1.8 goals their last 19 games. The power play is 8 for its last 80! The last time that the Canadiens won a game in regulation was January 6th. Normally, I might approach this as a team where you can "buy low," but the issue here is they are still thought of as a top contender in the East. That's just not the reality of the matter, plus the Habs are 1-5 SU this year when playing w/ three or more days rest.  10* Philadelphia

8* Chicago (7:35 ET):  Despite having only 52 points, Carolina is a team that deserves your respect (2nd in Corsi, 4th in Fenwick). I shouldn't have to tell Chicago that as they lost to the Hurricanes, 2-1 back on December 27th.  But, coming off a 5-2 win over Calgary Sunday, I fear the Canes are in "far over their head" as the defending Stanley Cup Champions pay a return visit here. The Blackhawks, who have a Western Conference-leading 70 points, got back on track w/ a 2-0 shutout of St. Louis on Sunday. They'd previously dropped B2B games after winning 12 straight, 10 of those in regulation. In 2016, there have been just two games where they allowed more than two regulation goals. They get their revenge here.

The 'Hawks outshot the 'Canes 36-27 last month, but ran into a hot goaltender. That would be Eddie Lack, who stepped up w/ 35 saves. Lack has been Carolina's primary goaltender ever since Cam Ward went down w/ a concussion. But with this being his fifth consecutive start, you have to wonder if fatigue will start to become a factor. A .916 save percentage his L4 has come in the face of a lot of shots (131).  The offense matched a season-high w/ five goals the last time out and it's worth noting the team is only 4-7 SU this year after scoring 4+ goals. They'd totaled just two goals in their previous three games, mind you. Even though they won earlier in the year, the Hurricanes have consistently struggled to solve Corey Crawford and the Blackhawks, scoring just five goals total the L3 meetings.

While I have my concerns w/ Lack's potential performance tonight, no such concerns exist w/ Crawford for Chicago. He is tied for the league lead in starts (41) and has delivered a 1.40 goals against average and .960 save percentage during a personal 9-1 stretch. He's off a 25-save shutout of St. Louis Sunday and was not the one between the pipes for his team's lone bad performance (4-0 loss at Florida on Friday) since the New Year. A big difference between now and the first time these teams played in the change in the Blackhawks' top line, which has resulted in an immediate scoring surge. Seeking revenge for a home loss, Chicago is a perfect 3-0 this season and they're also 20-5 taking on a team w/ a losing record. 8* Chicago

8* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): The Islanders should be plenty fresh for this one seeing as Saturday's game vs. Philadelphia, which was set to take place here on home ice, was postponed due to weather. Tonight, they are set to host Detroit in a battle of third place teams. While both they and the Red Wings may be identical in their standing in the standings, deeper study reveals that one is clearly better than the other. New York has outscored its opponents by 14 goals this year while Detrot, an overachiever in my opinion, has actually been outscored this season and is just a .500 team when factoring in overtime losses. Averaging 33.4 shots per game their L5, the Isles are in fine form. Look for them to earn the two points here.

A win here would move the Isles into second place in the Metro. This was obviously a team w/ high aspirations coming into the year but given the Rangers fast start and the fact that the Capitals are the best team in the league right now, there should be no shame in where they're at. Only six teams in the league have better goal differentials and four of them are the first place teams. Overall, NY is 3-0-1 its last four games, including a 5-2 win at Ottawa Friday night. They've had 33 or more shots on goals each of the last four games and come in averaging 33.2 per game at home this season. Goaltending has been strong, whether it's Thomas Greiss or Jarslav Halak. The Isles have beaten Detroit 8 of the last 10 times they've played.

As for the Red Wings, they lost their last time out, 4-3 at home to Anaheim.They've surprisingly fared quite well out on the road of late (won six of seven), but keep in mind that prior to the last two games they'd been averaging only 1.8 goals their previoius 11. They are relying a lot on goaltender Petr Mrazek. While the Isles are top 10 in both goals scored/allowed, Detroit is only 21st in goals scored/11th allowed. Also, when it comes to special teams, give a big nod to the Isles second ranked penalty kill.  8* NY Islanders

9* San Jose (10:05 ET):  Though both teams here played last night, I think the set up is really in favor of the Sharks, now winners of seven of their last eight after beating the Wild 4-3 on Saturday. The Kings lost yday, 3-2 in Arizona, making it two straight losses for them. This will be their sixth game in the last nine days, one more than San Jose has played, plus they are the disadvantage of having played a late game last night while the Sharks were done in the daytime. Having closed the gap in the Pacific to eight points, this is a critical game for the home team, who would love nothing more than solidify their status as the second best team in the division. Having already taken two of three this season in Los Angeles, the Sharks have to feel as if they might just be the best the division has to offer.

San Jose has a curiously subpar home record. They are 9-12-1 at The Tank. But recently they've turned things around w/ wins in four of their last five here.  The turnaround started w/ a dominant 7-0 win over Toronto on January 9th.  Since that time, they've scored four or more goals in four of the last seven contests. Last night saw them score the game-winner late, but they had a 33-25 edge in shots, so they certainly deserved to win. It was the fourth time in the last five games the Sharks finished w/ 30 or more shots, which is a positive sign. Part of the reason I called the team's home record "curious" is that they allow just 26.1 shots/game here. Goaltending was failing them early on, but lately both Martin Jones and Alex Stalock have played much better.

Considering that the Sharks rank 4th in the league in goals per game and 3rd on the power play, the Kings figure to be under siege here. That would be fine if Jonathan Quick was between the pipes, but w/ this being the second night of a back to back, it figures to be Jhonas Enroth instead. Enroth has not won since November 12th. He has an .895 save percentage his L4 outings (not good) and figures to get little help from an offense averaging just 2.2 goals its last five games.  The expectation that Los Angeles "can't lose again" only serves to give us tremendous value on a team that's red hot right now. 9* San Jose

10* New Jersey (7:05 ET):  Ottawa arrives here off B2B wins, both somewhat fortunate. There was a stunning third period rally to beat the Kings on Saturday, then Monday brought an even more crazy finish as they tied San Jose late (on a penalty shot!) when shorthanded and went on to win in overtime. This is the fifth and final game of a long road trip for the Sens, one that did not start out well at all as they were beaten by Washington and Anaheim by a combined score of 11-2. As per usual, they're still giving up goals in bunches (three in both wins) as they continue to rank near the bottom of the league in goals allowed (28th). While offense is not New Jersey's strong suit, I expect them to win this favorable matchup.

Already this season the Devils have taken two games from the Senators, both in Ottawa. The more recent meeting, which took place right before the New Year, was a 3-0 shutout despite a 36-21 disadvantage in shots. Normally when the final score and shot total are in such stark contrast, it might signal a different result is on its way the next time. But not here. While New Jersey is last in the league in # of shots per game, Ottawa actually gives up the most (33.5 per game). These teams want to play very different styles so considering the Devils were able to win despite allowing that many shots, it tells me if they dictate the pace here, it should be another easy two points. In the first meeting, New Jersey actually finished w/ 32 shots.

The Devils come in off B2B wins themselves, first a shutout of Arizona (2-0 on the road), followed by a 4-2 win over Calgary here on home ice Tuesday. We know where the strength of this team lies and it's between the pipes w/ Corey Schneider, who is having yet another excellent season (.954 save percentage L4 starts!) including the shutout of Ottawa last month. That 36-save performance improved his career marks vs. the Senators to 5-1-1 w/ a 1.39 goals against average. Schneider is clearly far superior to whomever Ottawa decides to go w/ in this spot. Also, the Devils have Mike Cammalleri back and he's their top offensive threat. In the two wins over the Senators this year, Cammalleri has five points (two goals, three assists). 10* New Jersey

10* Detroit (8:05 ET): Despite a negative goal differential for the season (-5), the Red Wings have stayed competitive and are currently second in the Atlantic with 54 points. They are off a loss, three nights ago, here at home to Philadelphia. But that came in a shootout, so that means the club has still only taken one regulation loss in its last seven games overall. Meanwhile, St. Louis comes in having won four of five (despite low shot totals) following a five-game losing streak. Only one of those wins has come on the road however, and for the season the Blues are just a .500 team away from home while being outscored. They are certainly no strangers to the Motor City having previously been division rivals w/ Detroit for so long, but Joe Louis Arena has never been kind to them as they've lost 38 of their L60 visits. I'm on the home team here.

St. Louis has 61 points and is third in the Central, but they too have a weak goal differential (just +3). That's a far cry from the two teams they are chasing, Chicago & Dallas, so you can really make a case that both of these teams have overachieved. Certainly, the Blues have been a little fortunate of late, including a 5-2 win over Pittsburgh where they were outshot 38-25.  That came on the heels of an overtime win over Montreal where they were also outshot, this time by an even larger margin (49-22).  Whether it's Corsi or Fenwick, this team is just middle of the road (15th and 13th respectively) and I simply don't see the recent offensive surge continuing given the low number of shot attempts we've been seeing from them. This figures to be Brian Elliott's seventh consecutive start between the pipes due to Jake Allen still being injured. That's a lot to ask of a goaltender that isn't among the league's elite.

As for Detroit, they come into tonight having dropped four in a row at home. That's due to turn around though and lucky for them is the fact St. Louis not only has struggled here historically, but also is without a regulation win its last five road games overall.  Give the edge to the Red Wings in goal here as Petr Mrazek has a 1.31 goals against average and .957 save percentage in the New Year and has really had the Blues' number in his career. He's 3-0 all-time against them w/ a 0.97 GAA and .961 save percentage. Even without him, the Wings managed to win in St. Louis back in November, 4-3.  The Blues are just 3-7 SU this year when seeking revenge for a home loss.  10* Detroit

8* Los Angeles (10:35 ET):  As I wrote about in yday's Ottawa-San Jose analysis, the Kings took an awful loss on Saturday, allowing four third period goals to fall 5-3 to the Senators. They bounced back the following night however, beating Anaheim 3-2. I like them to earn another two points here in what was shaping up as a battle of division leaders in the Western Conference, but Dallas is on a major slide right now and has been passed by Chicago in the Central. Many wondered if the Stars would be able to maintain their fantastic start to the season and lately the answer seems to be "no" as they have dropped six of the last seven games overall and given up a lot of goals in the process. It's a big edge for LA getting this game at home and Dallas is showing clear signs of regression.

Dallas remains the highest scoring team in the league (3.3 goals per game), but offense has never been the issue for the team. Rather, problems at the other end of the ice have been what's held them back is previous seasons. We're starting to see some of those same issues rear their ugly head again lately as they've given up 26 goals the L7 games. Their only win during that time came by a score of 2-1 over Winnipeg at home. Now they are w/o a top defensemen (Jordie Benn) and goalie Antti Niemi has really struggled of late w/ a 3.75 goals against average and .882 save percentage his L4 starts. The team has lost all four of those games and they are just 4-9 SU on the road this season w/ him between the pipes.

Despite the uncharacteristic implosion late against Ottawa, Kings goalie Jonathan Quick has been his usual solid self. He has a 1.69 GAA and .938 save percentage his L10 starts.  The team always seems to rate well in both Corsi and Fenwick and this season has been no different as they are 1st and 2nd respectively in those two categories. That's a reflection on their emphasis on puck possession and they do a great job at limiting the number of shots from their opponents. They've done a really good job in that department of late (just 24.8 per game allowed L5) while Dallas is allowing 32.2 per game over the same time. These are two teams trending in opposite directions right now. 8* Los Angeles

9* Tampa Bay (5:05 ET):  Well, things have quickly "headed South" for previously red-hot Florida, who after a remarkable 12-game run (NHL's longest win streak this season) have predictably regressed. I say "predictably" because the manner in which they were winning was largely unsustainable. Forget about the fact (actually don't!) that their 21 in wins in regulation are on par w/ the rest of the Eastern Conference save for Washington. The Panthers were outshot seven times, often significantly so, during their 12-game win streak. Four of those times saw them finish w/ 18 shots or less for the game and in Wednesday's ugly 6-0 loss at Calgary, they finished with only 15! Don't look now, but here comes the Lightning (winners of four straight), who I believe will get the two points here.

Advanced stats really don't like the Panthers, who despite their first place standing are just 24th in Corsi and 25th in Fenwick.  This is a reflection of their lack of shots, obviously, and over the last five games they are averaging just 20.0 while allowing 31.0! Getting shut out 6-0 while registering only 15 shots is clearly awful regardless of the opponent, but when it's the Flames, you should be downright ashamed! The schedule makers certainly did Florida no favors here as coming off a three-game trek through Western Canada, they are back in the Sunshine State for one more road game. Prior to sweeping a home and home from the Lightning back in November, the Panthers had dropped seven of eight to their division rival, including all four here in Tampa Bay.

After suffering their own loss in Calgary, 3-1 on January 5th, the Lightning have turned things around in somewhat dramatic fashion. They've since won four in a row, three of those coming on the road, while scoring 15 goals in the process. Their dormant offense has been a concern for much of the year (just 15th in goals per game!), but it was only a matter of time before they picked things up.  I point to goalie Ben Bishop, who is 6-1-1 w/ a 2.17 goals against average his L8 starts vs. Florida. Tampa Bay's two losses to the Panthers earlier this year certainly could have gone either way as the first was decided in a shootout after Florida tied the game w/ a power play goal in the final minute of regulation. Then in the rematch, the Lightning held a 39-20 edge in shots That's par for the course with Florida, who has been outshot by double digits five times here in January. 9* Tampa Bay

9* Arizona (2:05 ET):  It's an early start time for the 'Yotes due to the Cardinals game taking place Saturday night. While I won't be "giving away" who I like in the football game here, I can tell you that I think Arizona sports fans will be happy prior to kickoff as the hockey club should come away with an easy two points this afternoon. They'll be hosting New Jersey, a team that regular readers/clients will remember that I just played against Thursday night when they were shut out in Colorado (3-0). That was the Devils' fifth loss in their last six games and they have scored two goals or less in all six. Offense is always the issue for New Jersey, so w/ Arizona's own offensive numbers being quite respectable here at home, I'm on them.

Now the Coyotes too are off a loss, theirs coming to Detroit by a score of 3-2 Thurs night. But prior to that, they'd posted B2B victories here at home, scoring exactly four goals in both victories. In fact, the loss to the Red Wings snapped a four-game winning streak. That loss came in overtime, so it continued a streak that has seen the 'Yotes pick up at least a point in 13 of their last 15 games, including seven straight. They are 9-2-4 during that stretch and as I alluded to above, their offensive numbers have noticeably picked up as they've scored a total of 47 goals. For the season, Arizona ranks seventh in the league in goals per game w/ 2.8 and here at home they are averaging 3.2.  This is a revenge spot w/ the 'Yotes having lost in New Jersey (3-2) very early in the season.

The Coyotes' biggest issue when looking at YTD numbers is that they rank 28th in goals against. But the emergence of Louis Domingue between the pipes has ailed them in that department as the netminder has turned in 1.76 goals against average his last five starts while going 4-0-1. This matchup here is an ideal one for Arizona as New Jersey is second to last in the league in scoring (2.16 goals per game) and last in shots (24.6 per game).  Thursday's shutout loss in Colorado actually saw the Devils produce their second highest shot total of 2016 (still only 27), but leaves them w/ just six goals total in the last six games and they're 0 for 15 on the power play. The team leader in points (Michael Cammalleri) remains out and is one of seven players that have missed time on this road trip. After squandering a two-goal lead against Detroit, I see the Coyotes bouncing back here. 9* Arizona

9* Colorado (9:05 ET):  The Avalanche were shut out in their last game, 4-0 by suddenly surging Tampa Bay. That followed another ugly loss (6-3), again to a red-hot team (Chicago). Those results were a drastic departure from what the Avs had done the three game previous, which is win every time out while scoring four or more goals. Tonight, they welcome in a New Jersey team whose issue all year has been getting shots on net (league-low average of 24.5 per game), so provided the Avs can regain their lost offensive touch, they should be in good shape here. The Devils have lost four of their last five, including 5-2 at St. Louis Tuesday night, and that stretch has seen their offense possibly hit its nadir w/ just 1.2 goals scored per game on an average of 20.6 shots. I shouldn't need to tell you that's just awful.

Colorado ranks 8th in the league in goal per game (2.8), so if they hit their average the Devils are unlikely to keep up. Against the Lightning, it was just "one of those nights" as they were held to just 21 shots and shut out. But even after that performance, the Avs are still averaging over 30 shots per game their last five and that's a good number to have when facing New Jersey. They already beat the Devils last month, 2-1, despite a 28-25 disadvantage in shots. That improved their record to 8-0-1 the past nine meetings. The fact that the Avs are somewhat poor defensively shouldn't be that big of an issue here. New Jersey actually went 17 minutes of game time w/o a shot Tuesday night in St. Louis!

The Devils just lean far too hard on Corey Schneider, which has been the case now for several seasons. This is a team that has gone seven consecutive games w/o scoring a power play goal & is just 29th in goals per game. It's pretty shocking that they have been able to post a winning record on the road (12-8-2). Just as surprising is that Colorado is only 9-10-3 on home ice.  Those 13 home losses are second most in the league (Buffalo has the most), tied w/ Columbus, Boston .... and New Jersey! That's not to make a case for New Jersey here, but rather I'm pointing out that the Avs are likely due to start playing better here at the Pepsi Center. 9* Colorado

8* Anaheim (10:05 ET): The Ducks really let me down the other night, losing 2-1 here at home to Detroit. That was despite a 31-24 edge in shots and it's been a somewhat predictable pattern this season that whenever you expect this team to really turn things around, they fail.  That being said, there are signs that upward mobility is imminent as their record over the last eight games is 5-2-1 and they have outshot every opponent during that stretch. Tonight, in comes an Ottawa team that was just blasted 7-1 in its last game (at Washington). As I've written about previously, the Senators give up way too many shots, in fact no team allows more per game (33.4). This is a good matchup for Anaheim and a relatively cheap price as well.

Advanced stats indicate that this could be a lopsided matchup. Despite their current standing, the Ducks rank high (as in fifth) in both Corsi and Fenwick.  That has a lot to do w/ the fact they are allowing the third fewest number of shots per game in the league (27.4). That's a far cry from Ottawa, who ranks near the bottom in the league in both Corsi (25th) and Fenwick (29th).  The Ducks issue all season long has obviously been goal scoring (last in the league), but considering they average over 30 shots/game, I expect that to change. No team has a lower shooting percentage this season (just 6.3%) and opposing goaltenders have actually been even stingier over their last five games. Ottawa ranks 26th in the league in goals allowed, so again, this is a good matchup for the home team.

One area where the Ducks are great is penalty killing.  They're actually the top team in the league in that department at 89.7 percent while Ottawa is 28th at 76.2 percent. So we know which team is more likely to benefit tonight from having the man advantage.  Again, the Senators were absolutely crushed their last time out and have just three wins over their last ten games, two of them coming in overtime. During that time, they've been outscored 34-17, a 2:1 margin. When it comes to goaltending, I give a big edge to the Ducks w/ John Gibson, who has yet to surrender more than three goals in any start since being called up from the AHL. Ottawa's likely starter, Craig Anderson, has struggled of late w/ a 3.58 goals against average his L5 road starts (all losses). 8* Anaheim

8* Chicago (8:35 ET): Don't look now, but the Blackhawks are playing really well as the defending Stanley Cup Champs have won seven in a row while outscoring opponents by a 29-15 margin. That includes a 6-3 win over Colorado on Sunday where they were actually outshot (37-35), but consider that in the previous two games they outshot their opponents (Pittsburgh & Buffalo) 82-47. Tonight is a revenge spot as division foe Nashville comes to town and considering how much the home ice advantage has meant in this rivalry in recent years, I think the 'Hawks are a tremendous value at this ML price, especially given how much they've been winning lately. The Predators, meanwhile, have lost three in a row and five of six.

Including LY's playoff series, these two have faced off against one another 12 times over the last two seasons. The home team has won 10 of those games and both road wins came from Chicago. Nashville has not won at the "Madhouse on Madison" since March 14th, 2014. Taking into account recent form, I don't see that losing streak ending here. The Blackhawks are 18-5-1 this season at home where they are giving up just 1.6 goals per game. Corey Crawford was NOT between the pipes the last time these teams met (in Nashville), but did turn in a 36-save performance here against the Preds two days prior. Overall, Crawford has posted a .953 save percentage and 1.48 goals against average his last four starts.

Given that Nashville has dropped two-thirds of their road games so far (14 of 21), including a 1-5-1 mark their last seven, I find it difficult to believe that they'll be turning things around tonight. Saturday saw them get shutout for a fifth time this year, 4-0 at Arizona, as they are now averaging just 1.4 goals per game since December 31st.  Chicago is averaging more than four goals per game during that same time frame, so taking all factors into account (particularly home ice advantage), I think that it's safe to say a blowout could be in the cards this evening. When taking on a team w/ a losing record, the Blackhawks are 17-5 this year. They also have a +22 YTD goal differential while Nashville is -8.  8* Chicago

8* Anaheim (8:05 ET): Are the Ducks finally turning things around? It looks like it as they've won five of their last seven games to vault into fourth place in the weak Pacific Division. That's in spite of a poor -20 goal differential for the season, but remember that this team couldn't score to save it's life for the first month or so. Now, they've scored four times in two of the last three games, including a 4-3 win over St. Louis Friday. They remain at home here to play a Detroit team that has won three straight, but could be a little "road-weary" as tonight marks their fourth away game in a row. The Red Wings have been a little lucky to win three straight one-goal games and as I've written before, I'm a little concerned over this team's inability to consistently create scoring opportunities. I like the home team in this one.

Detroit is second in the Atlantic w/ 49 points, but has a negative scoring margin for the year, so it's definitely fair to say that they've overachieved thus far.  Sure enough, they've been outshot in each of the last three games, including 36-25 in Thursday's 2-1 win at San Jose. For the season, the Wings are averaging only 28.5 shots per game, 23rd in the league and only one-half shot ahead of 28th.  They are 0-3 this season following a three-game unbeaten streak, so history is somewhat against them here. This road trip started out East, so fatigue could start to become a factor as they play three games in five nights in Southern California. Because they play tomorrow night as well, red-hot Petr Mrazek could be given the night off here, which would be a big boost as Jimmy Howard hasn't been nearly as effective in goal.

Anaheim has its own hot goaltender they've been riding of late. John Gibson has posted a 1.56 goals against average his L6 starts and has a .926 save percentage overall since being called up from the AHL.  The Ducks also have the league's best penalty kill (89.4 percent), one that went 4 for 4 in the win over St. Louis last time out. Unlike Detroit, Anaheim has had little difficulty getting the puck on net lately as they've had at least 35 shots on goal three straight games, including B2B games w/ 39.  8* Anaheim

9* Columbus (7:05 ET): These are the bottom two teams in the Metro and while I've previously stated a case that Carolina should be far better than its record (good advanced stats!), Columbus is a team that dug itself a huge early hole this season (started 0-8) but has been far more respectable ever since.  Now, the Hurricanes did take the front end of this home and home last night by a score of 4-1, but I'll call for the Blue Jackets to get revenge here as it's their turn to host and a 36-29 edge in shots Friday is certainly something I feel that is significant. Despite being nearly a .500 team (in regulation), the Hurricanes have posted B2B wins only three times since the start of November.

The 'Canes have simply not gotten the kind of performances between the pipes like the one Cam Ward delivered last night. Ward stopped 35 shots in his second straight strong performance. The only regulation goal he's given up the last two games came last night when Columbus had a two-man advantage on the power play. But w/ this being the second game of a back to back, it's quite likely that it will be Eddie Lack in goal tonight and he's failed to deliver all year. Lack has an .890 save percentage for the season and the team has lost both of his starts in the New Year, including 3-2 to Vancouver on Wednesday. Also not in Carolina's favor here is the fact they are just 2-6 SU this season after scoring 4+ goals the previous game.

If revenge for simply losing last night wasn't enough, the Blue Jackets will also have injured captain Nick Foligno on their minds after he took a nasty, blindside hit from Carolina's Brad Malone. Columbus' HC John Tortorella has come out and said their won't be any retaliation, but I'm not sure I buy that. Of course, the best way to retaliate would be to simply win and pick up the two points.  Goalie Anton Forsberg (.923 save percentage) has been sharp in relatively limited action so far and I expect him to answer the call here tonight.  The Blue Jackets have actually dropped three straight home games to the Hurricanes, but I'll call for that streak to come to an end here. 9* Columbus

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  Yes, Philadelphia treated me nicely w/ a 4-3 win over Montreal Tuesday, but as yday's play ON the Habs illustrated, I'm not afraid to zig and zag in the NHL. Even after that win two nights ago (were favored), the Flyers are still tied for 6th in the Metro w/ only 39 points and they have the second worst goal differential in the Eastern Conference (-22). They are only 7-10-3 on the road and tonight travel to face a Minnesota team that is strong on its home ice (14-5-1) and 5th in the league in goals allowed. The Wild are off a 4-2 win in Columbus Tuesday night, which concluded a four-game road trip that saw them put a lot of shots on net, win or lose. Tonight, it'll be the former in their return home.

Offensively, the Wild have been somewhat limited this year. But they are coming off their highest-scoring effort in recent memory w/ the four goals against the Blue Jackets. Also, as I said, they were putting plenty of shots on goal during the recently completed road trip as they averaged 33.5 in the four games, peaking w/ 40 in a tough 2-1 loss to red-hot Florida over the weekend. So I expect the puck to start "finding the back of the net" at a higher rate for them. As for the defensive end of the ice, there are few problems. Like I said, they rank 5th in the league in goals allowed and have allowed just 12 goals in the last seven games. Since December 1st, no Western Conference team has allowed fewer goals than Minnesota's 1.76 per game. Goaltender Devan Dubnyk will likely be between the pipes tonight and over the L5 games he's posted outstanding numbers (1.59 goals against average and .948 save percentage). 

Considering Philadelphia's recent play on the road, this would seem to be an ideal matchup for the Wild. Over their last five away games, the Flyers have scored only eight times and that includes a winless West Coast trip last week where they were held to just five goals total in three games. Scoring has been an issue for Philly all season as they are just 29th overall in goals per game. At the same time, they give up far too many shots (32.4 per game, 2nd most in the league). This shapes up as a great matchup for the Wild. 8* Minnesota

8* Montreal (7:05 ET): Yep. One day after making a compelling case to go AGAINST the Canadiens, I'll come back with them tonight. I was obviously correct in fading the Habs last night as they went to Philadelphia and lost 4-3 to the Flyers. That concluded a pretty awful 2-6 SU road trip where their only win in regulation came New Year's Day in the Winter Classic vs. Boston (whom they always seem to beat). Overall, the Habs are just 4-12-1 their L17 games and considering that I was harping on the continued absence of goalie Carey Price in yday's analysis, taking them in the second game of a back to back seems like the LEAST likely situation you'd want to back them in. But, thankfully, the offensively inept Devils are crossing the border tonight and I feel that this is an ideal matchup for Montreal to get back on track.

These teams have met twice before this season and exchanged road victories by matching scores of 3-2.  New Jersey did not face Price either time. But again, I think the key here is that the Devils do a very poor job at getting the puck on net. They rank very low in both Corsi (29th) and Fenwick (27th) and are dead last in the league in # of shots w/ only 24.9 per game. Hard as it is to fathom, but that number has gotten even lower over the L5 games (23.4) as the last time we saw them, they were shutout (1-0) at home by Detroit.  They are 27th in the league in goals per game (2.3) and totally reliant on goaltender Corey Schneider. Honestly, I am stunned that they currently hold one of the two Wild Card spots in the Eastern Conference as they have 45 points, just two fewer than Montreal! 

The Habs have not played a home game in over two weeks, so perhaps being back at the Bell Centre will help turn things around. They are 11-6-2 here this season and despite the recent slide remain in the top three in goal differential in the entire Eastern Conference. Clearly, they miss Price, but Mike Condon actually has a save percentage of .927 his L4 outings and isn't likely to be as tested here for the reasons stated above. They've allowed an average of 32.2 shots the past five games, but New Jersey won't come close to that as the Habs also allow only 25.5 per game here at home. 8* Montreal

10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET):  You might be surprised to find the Flyers favored on the money line here against Eastern Conference heavyweight Montreal, but don't be. Outside of their performance in the Winter Classic (against an opponent they always seem to dominate, that being rival Boston), the Habs have been struggling of late.  They'd dropped 9 of 11 prior to the win on New Year's Day and this regression can largely be pinned on the fact they are still without Carey Price in goal. Florida has even passed them for the top spot in the Atlantic Division and the team has fallen to 12th in goals allowed per game.  It'll be the recently acquired Ben Scrivens between the pipes tonight and after he lost his first start (3-1 to the Panthers), I expect more of the same here tonight in Philly.

The Flyers will certainly be happy to be back in the City of Brotherly Love following an 0-3 trip through Southern California that concluded w/ a 2-1 loss to Los Angeles on Saturday. It was the fifth time in the last six games they'd scored two goals or fewer and considering they conceded four in losses to both Anaheim and San Jose, things are not necessarily "looking up" right now for Dave Hakstol's team.  But there's going to be some line tinkering here and the team's top three point scorers figure to all be out on the ice at the same time now. That should lead to an increase in offensive production while between the pipes we have Steve Mason, who has turned in a 1.63 goals against average his L3 starts vs. Montreal. Averaging 33.1 shots per game at home, the Flyers should be scoring more than 2.1 goals per game.

If you think that the extended rest that the Canadiens have had here will help, then think again. They are 0-3 SU this season when taking the ice w/ three or more days rest. The last time it happened, the day after X-Mas, they fell at Washington 3-1. Now, Philadelphia isn't Washington, but note that the Habs are just 11-9-1 on the road this season. They are also now w/o forward Dale Weise just as Brendan Gallagher returned, so injuries remain a concern. Revenge will be a motivating factor here for the Flyers, who were swept 3-0 in LY's season series. 10* Philadelphia

6* St. Louis (8:05 ET): Both of these teams are struggling right now. Ottawa has dropped five of six, including three straight ugly decisions where they've been outscored 13-3. They've been shutout in the last two, the more recent being in Chicago last night.  So this is hardly an ideal spot having to come back w/o rest to play what is likely to be a highly motivated St. Louis club tonight. The Blues have dropped B2B games themselves, 3-1 here at home to Minnesota and then 4-1 at Toronto. But they had Sunday off and should be the more "ready to roll" side here. Plus, they are 7-1 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals in their previous game. The Senators, meanwhile, are a woeful 1-5 SU in the 2nd game of a back to back.

I'm not really sold on Ottawa, who has slid to sixth in the very competitive Atlantic Division. For much of the season, goaltending was the primary concern as this is a team that ranks 26th in the league in goals allowed per game (2.9) and that has a lot to do w/ the fact no team allows more shots per game (33.7), which is always problematic. On the road this season, they are being outshot, on average, by eight attempts per game.  Not surprisingly, they've now lost seven in a row away from home. But lately, lack of offense has been the culprit as they've gone B2B games w/o scoring. Facing a Blues team that is top 10 in goals allowed (just 2.2 goals per game allowed at home) isn't likely to bring any kind of resurgence on that end of the ice.

With St. Louis, their only goals scored in the L2 games both came on the power play. But special teams could be a huge advantage for them in this matchup considering they rank 6th on the power play (21.4 percent) and 2nd in penalty killing (86.3 percent) while the Sens are just 21st and 28th respectively in those two key categories. Somehow, Ottawa has managed to win 8 of its previous 11 visits to the Gateway City. But I look for that to change tonight as the situation is quite favorable for St. Louis, who was still able to register a total of 74 shots in the L2 games. That sounds promising going up against this leaky Ottawa defense. 6* St. Louis

8* Anaheim (9:05 ET): Every time you think that the Ducks are about to "get going," they drop a game unexpectedly. Case in point, they arrived in Vancouver two nights ago having won three in a row, but failed to make it a clean sweep through Western Canada (previously won at both Calgary and Edmonton) as they dropped a game to the struggling Canucks, 2-1 in a shootout. Scoring remains an issue "on the pond" as the Ducks rank dead last in the league in goals per game (1.8) and they've totaled just three in their last three games (two shutout victories). But I still like their chances tonight, back at home, against last place Winnipeg. The Jets are caught playing in the second game of a back to back (beat San Jose 4-1 last night) and their third road game in four nights. 

Playing w/o rest has not treated the Jets well this season as they are 2-6 SU in that situation. Nor have they fared well in the past against Anaheim, dropping nine of the last 10 overall meetings, including a four-game sweep in the playoffs last year. This also hasn't been a good road team either as Saturday's win snapped a six-game losing skid away from home. The back to back situation really hurts them between the pipes as well w/ the struggling Michael Hutchinson likely having to be called back into duty. He has a 3.79 goals against average his last seven starts, all losses, and an .897 save percentage on the road for the season. Recently, he had given way to Connor Hellebuyck, who had been playing much better. 

Meanwhile, there seems to be no such issue on goal for Anaheim, who will turn to John Gibson here. Because they were in the second game of a back to back New Year's night, Gibson was given the night off in the Ducks' eventual 2-1 loss to Vancouver. But they'll be thrilled to have him back on the ice as since being called up from the AHL, Gibson has turned in a 1.68 GAA in 14 starts (league best during that time!) w/ four shutouts.  Besides goaltending, another edge for the Ducks tonight resides w/ the respective penalty killing units. Anaheim is #1 in the league in that department (88.3 percent) while Winnipeg is just 25th (71.8 percent L10 games). The Jets' power play also ranks 29th and is just 1 for its last 21 on the road. So, all around it's massive edges in special teams and in goal for the home team here. 8* Anaheim

8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET):  The Lightning have been a massive disappointment so far, particularly here on home ice where they are only 9-8-2. Tonight marks the end of what should have been a profitable six-game homestand for the club, yet instead we find TB having lost three of its last four, including two straight. The Rangers beat them 5-2 on Wednesday, thanks to a 3-0 edge in goals in the third period. While there is some question over whether or not Ben Bishop will be between the pipes here, I like Tampa Bay regardless to get back on track. This team has far too much talent to continue losing like this and I think this is a great price to "get down" on as Minnesota is not a great road team.

We already know that the Wild are forced to continue leaning on Devan Dubnyk as Darcy Keumper remains out indefinitely. Dubnyk led the way in Minnesota's 1-0 win (at home) over Tampa Bay last month, making 31 saves in the shutout.  But the Wild should have felt lucky to win that game as they were outshot.  Also, home ice has been a huge determining factor in the past when these two teams meet as hosts have won the last six meetings. Minnesota has lost 10 of its 16 road games this year even after winning in St. Louis on New Year's Eve. That's significantly worse than the team's 14-5-1 home record, so once again the home-road dichotomy should come into play here. Note that the Wild have not won B2B road games all season.

Minnesota was outshot Wednesday in St. Louis, 34-29, yet still pulled out the victory despite not having LW Zach Parise (could return tonight). Note that the third goal they scored came on an empty net, so the final score is a tad bit misleading as well.  As for TB, I imagine that they are likely to improve upon their total of only 22 shots in the last game as this team simply has too much offensive talent to be floundering on the fringes of playoff contention like they are. One big edge for them tonight could reside on the power play where they've gone 9 for their last 29. Minnesota ranks a very poor 27th in the league in penalty killing (77.3 percent).  8* Tampa Bay

9* Carolina (6:05 ET):  As we prepare to turn the calendar to a new year, it is clear that Washington has emerged as the team to beat this year in the NHL. The Capitals have 58 points entering play Thursday; that's the most in the league. Plus they have the best goal differential (+41). They've won nine straight coming into tonight and their 26 regulation wins are by far and away the most in the Eastern Conference. But this is a tricky spot for them. While the Caps are every bit as good as their record, their opponent here is significantly better than theirs. Carolina may only have 35 points (second fewest in the Metro), but they are top three in the league in both Fenwick and Corsi. I'll step in front of the "Washington train" and call for an upset here.

Carolina does have a winning record here in December (7-6) and an overall 7-8-3 mark at home should be much better given that they are allowing an average of just 25.2 shots per game here. This team is no stranger to upsets as they pulled off a big one earlier this week (as +175 underdogs on the ML) in Chicago, beating the Blackhawks 2-1. Unfortunately, they followed that up by losing in New Jersey Tuesday (I correctly went AGAINST them!). Note that seven of the 'Canes last eight games have been decided by exactly one goal. In four of their last six games, they have allowed 24 or fewer shots, which is outstanding. The goaltending has improved dramatically over the L5 games w/ a .942 save percentage. Simply put, this is a club that should be winning more games.

Washington is dealing with a number of key injuries going into this game. They are also playing in the second game of a back to back (beat Buffalo 5-2 last night), so it is unlikely that Braden Holtby will be back between the pipes, a huge break for Carolina. Both center Jay Beagle and center Nicklas Backstrom left last night's game and Beagle is definitely out tonight as is top defensemen John Carlson. Something else to keep in mind is that the Caps are coming off a game where they scored four unanswered goals in the third period. What will they have left in the tank tonight? This is just not a good spot for them. 9* Carolina

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Penguins have been one of the biggest disappointments in the Eastern Conference thus far as their 37 points have them just fifth in the Metro and well off the playoff pace (five points out). However, they've had two days off to "get over" being shut out in Winnipeg (lost 1-0) and I think that a return home will breed a different result. Paying a visit will be Toronto, the last place team in the Atlantic. While this year's Maple Leafs may not be as bad as the team we saw last year, they still give up far too many goals. They lost last night, 6-3 to the Islanders, so the schedule is not kind here. When playing on back to back days this season, Toronto is a horrible 0-8 and I see them losing yet again tonight. 

Pittsburgh has already beaten Toronto twice this year w/ both games taking place early on in the season (in October). If you want some evidence of line value for tonight, consider that the Pens closed at -250 on the money line when beat the Leafs here at home (2-1) on October 17th. Two weeks later, it was a 4-0 shutout victory in Toronto that improved Pittsburgh to 7-1 SU the last eight meetings between these two teams. Clearly, the Penguins ranking 28th in the league in scoring (also 28th on the power play) goes beyond just "disappointing," but this is an ideal matchup as Toronto has allowed 4+ goals in four of their last seven games. Last night was a real disaster as the Islanders scored all of their six goals in the first two periods (on only 15 shots!), chasing Jonathan Bernier early.

When looking at Pittsburgh's recent skid (lost 8 of last 11 games), it would be easy to pin things on not having Marc-Andre Fleury in net. But his replacements, whether it's Jeff Zatkoff or rookie Matt Murray, have actually been solid. That duo has combined to allow just six goals in the team's last four games, including one each in the last two. It's stunning that the Pens are only 9-7-2 on home ice this year (lost 4 of 5), but I don't see that lasting and with the time off, plus Toronto playing w/o rest, the schedule sets up well here. Pittsburgh is averaging 34.9 shots per game here at home as well. Note that Toronto is 2-7 SU when coming off a loss by two or more goals this season. 8* Pittsburgh

8* New Jersey (7:05 ET): Little was expected from either of these teams coming into the season, but I feel that both have somewhat exceeded expectations. Carolina has been a bit unlucky in the sense that they rank 2nd in Corsi and 3rd in Fenwick, yet despite those impressive numbers (and B2B wins) they are still second from the bottom in the Metropolitan w/ only 35 points and a -18 goal differential. New Jersey is 4th in the Metro, despite losing four of its last five, most recently falling to these Hurricanes (3-1 in Raleigh) on Saturday. Back at home, they should be "amped" for the rematch while the 'Canes look to be in a bit of a letdown as they pulled a big upset at Chicago (were +175 on the money line) Sunday. I look for the Devils to gain revenge in this favorable situation.

These are two of the better teams in the league when it comes to shots allowed.  Carolina actually gives up the fewest per game (26.1) in the entire league while New Jersey isn't far behind at 28.5. It was a 25-20 edge in shots for the Hurricanes on Saturday, but the game was tied 1-1 until 8:17 into the third period. Note that the Devils did win the season's first matchup, 5-1 in Raleigh. So, they certainly know they can beat this opponent. Having not played since Saturday while Carolina had to go to Chicago is a big advantage. Especially because the 'Canes are off such an improbable win. Carolina has won three straight just one time this season and that came back at the end of October. There have been two times where they've been off B2B wins this month and they've conceded 5.0 goals per game in those contests.

While both teams struggle offensively, New Jersey should have a big edge in goal w/ Corey Schneider. The league leader in starts had a 1.65 goals against average in six outings vs. Carolina prior to Saturday and checks in w/ a .924 save percentage this season. He's the primary reason why the Devils allow the seventh fewest goals per game in the league. Carolina is 24th in that department and was actually second to last in the Eastern Conference before the L5 games. Both Eddie Lack and Cam Ward have had their struggles all season and the 'Canes special teams have done them no favors either, particularly a penalty kill which ranks 28th (77.4 percent).  8* New Jersey

9* Arizona (9:05 ET): On paper, this is hardly an attractive matchup as two of the league's perennial "bad" teams square off. However, Toronto is definitely better than they were last year and Arizona is actually in playoff contention by virtue of being in the horrible Pacific Division.  Incredibly, the Coyotes are one point out of a playoff spot right now and I expect this to keep them highly motivated moving forward.  Meanwhile, motivation may start to become an issue for the Maple Leafs, who are buried at the bottom of the Atlantic, despite having just one point fewer than the 'Yotes. Go w/ the home team in this one.

All of a sudden, the Leafs can't stop scoring.  They are off a pair of shocking wins, 5-0 over Los Angeles (at home) and then last night, 7-4 at Colorado.  But can you really see them making it three consecutive wins as an underdog on the money line? I can't. Especially because this is the second game of a back to back, a situation the team has REALLY struggled in all season. They are 0-7 SU in that role, including a shutout loss to Minnesota their last time in it. But the offensive numbers are almost certain to go down (they average just 2.2 gpg on the road) as is the team tonight.

Arizona can score too; they had nine goals in two games, but lost them both due to shoddy goaltending. That was before a 1-0 win over the Islanders on Saturday though, which really impressed me.  Also impressive is the team's 6-1-1 run here at home.  Louis Dominigue offers some promise in goal (25 saves Saturday) and if it's not him, then it will be Anders Lindback, who has a 2.08 career GAA vs. the Maple Leafs. Arizona is obviously rested here and that could be the difference in this one, plus they did go to Toronto and win earlier this season, 4-3, despite getting only 24 shots on goal.  9* Arizona

10* Edmonton (9:05 ET):  The Oilers of course remain w/o Connor McDavid, but for awhile were faring just fine as at one point they'd actually won six in a row. Unfortunately, a four-game road trip did not end well (three straight losses) as they were outscored 13-3 by the Rangers, Blackhawks and Avs. But tonight they're back on home ice where they haven't dropped a game since an overtime loss to Chicago all the way back on November 18th! Paying a visit Monday will be Winnipeg, who is allowing a woeful 3.4 goals per game on the road this season.  With the Jets having won all three matchups last season, revenge will be in the air here at Rexall Place and I'm backing Edmonton.

Though they lost 5-1 at Colorado on Saturday, it wasn't as if the Oilers played as poorly as the final score indicates. They actually outshot the Avalanche 40-29.  Furthermore, it should be noted that the Oilers were substantial underdogs on the money line in all four games of the recently completed road trip (did upset Boston), so it's not as if the recent results should be all that surprising. They are a strong 4-1 this season when coming off three consecutive losses, so this does shape up as the proverbial bounce back spot and I think they're being drastically undervalued on the money line.

The home ice advantage really is big here. Not just because Edmonton is 9-5-1 here (as opposed to 5-13-1 on the road), but also Winnipeg has a similar home/road dichotomy.  The Jets are also 9-5-1 at home, but 6-10-1 on the road and in the last 10 away games they are being outscored by nearly a 2:1 margin while going 1-8-1.  Winnipeg's special teams have been downright awful (29th on power play, 27th penalty killing) which could be the difference in this one.  I'm not sure I would trust the relatively inexperienced Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes either.  10* Edmonton

10* Nashville (8:05 ET): The Central Division is the toughest in the sport and is very likely to produce both Wild Cards in the Western Conference as the Pacific is really weak this year (besides the Kings). Currently, Minnesota should feel safe as it is tied for third in the Central w/ 40 points, thanks to a three-game win streak. Nashville's position (fifth) is a little more precarious right now as they have dropped three in a row. But a return home should bring a change in results tonight for the Predators, who have lost all three of those games by exactly a one-goal margin, one of them in overtime. Advanced stats say the Preds should be better, much better in fact, as they rank #3 in Corsi and #1 in Fenwick!  I'm on them here.

Those excellent possession numbers speak well to the brand of hockey Nashville is playing. Since being outshot in four of their first five games this season, that's happened only nine times in the L27 games. They were outshot (33-28) in St. Louis Thursday, but they actually led that game 1-0 heading into the third period.  Only one other time this season have the Preds dropped three in a row (and in that instance they were shut out all three times!) and they followed it up w/ a 3-2 win over Buffalo.  The opponent is certainly tougher here, but after the road team won six consecutive Minnesota-Nashville matchups, I say it's time for a return to "normalcy" in this division rivalry.

The Wild did win in shutout fashion (4-0) at home against the Predators last month (after losing the season's first meeting, also in the Twin Cities).  But tonight marks the fourth time they've attempted to win four straight games and the three previous times have all seen them fail.  High-scoring wins the L2 games will likely attract bettors' attention, but beware that both of those games came at home. (I was on one of them, the 6-2 win over Vancouver).  But while Nashville is outshooting opponents this season (31.3 shots per game), Minnesota is basically dead even in that department despite recent strong figures. They have lost 9 of 14 road games this year and remember that the Predators are typically very strong at Bridgestone Arena. Pekka Rinne's .923 save percentage at home carries his team to victory here. 10* Nashville

6* Chicago (8:35 ET):  It's not very often that I would lay this kind of juice on the money line, but in this case it is warranted as the defending Stanley Cup Champions, coming off a shutout loss to Colorado, welcome in an Edmonton club that's due to start regressing.  The Oilers, surprisingly, have won six of their last seven w/ the lone loss coming their last time out (4-2 to the Rangers).  But this will be their third road game in four nights and that's a tough spot for them considering a pretty woeful 5-12 SU mark in away games this season.  The Blackhawks are 12-5 at home and won't take too kindly to being shut out for only the second time all season. Prior to that, they had shut out their previous two opponents, here at home.

With the Blackhawks being shutout in their last game, obviously Patrick Kane saw his 26-game point streak come to an end. Again, it was just the second time they've been shutout all season. It is certainly reasonable to expect a strong bounce back in this situation. Especially given that, predictably, Chicago has dominated Edmonton through the years. They have taken seven of the last eight matchups, including all four here in the Windy City. Goalie Corey Crawford, who started this homestand w/ B2B shutouts, is 6-0 his L6 starts vs. the Oilers with a 1.97 goals against average.  Over his L4 games, Crawford has posted a marvelous .975 save percentage. There have been six home games this season for Chicago where the total has been 5.5.  They have won all six.

As stated before, Edmonton just isn't a very good road team.  They did stun Boston to start this four-game trip, but then came back down to Earth, losing to a Rangers team they had just beaten 7-5 at home four days prior.  They beat Boston despite a 49-24 deficit in shots and then goalie Anders Nilsson came in and allowed four goals on just 21 shots to the Rangers. The Oilers had just 20 shots themselves Tuesday, the third time in the last four games they finished w/ 24 or fewer. That's not going to win you many games in this league. Nor is the team's goaltending duo of Nilsson and Cam Talbot, who combined rank 25th in the league in goals allowed per game. Both have save percentages below .900 their last four starts as well.  6* Chicago

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): These two teams appear to be trending in very different directions. The Wild, playing on home ice here, have won four of six including a 2-0 shutout at San Jose on Saturday. Meanwhile, visiting Vancouver has dropped six of eight, most recently getting shut out in their own right, 4-0 in Chicago on Sunday.  All of a sudden, goal scoring has become a major concern for the Canucks as not only have their last two losses been of the shutout variety, but more often than not they are failing to even get many scoring chances. They opened December w/ three consecutive games of 17 or fewer shots, which is just awful, and now get set to take on a Minnesota club that has allowed all of five goals its L6 games. Bad matchup for the road team here.

The Wild's only two losses over their L6 games both came in OT.  Amazingly, they were able to turn in yet another shutout on Saturday, despite losing the services of Devan Dubnyk, who has a .960 save percentage his L4 starts. It was Darcy Keumper between the pipes against the Sharks and he responded w/ 25 saves in what was his fourth consecutive start, two of those resulting in shutout victories. Keumper deserves a better record as he has yet to taste defeat in regulation all season and has a .920 save percentage. The Wild lead the league w/ seven shutout victories, so goaltending clearly is no issue right now in the Twin Cities. Provided they get the requisite amount of offense tonight, they should be just fine. Here at home, they are limiting opponents to just 1.9 goals per game for the year!

Vancouver has not fared well this season when stepping up in competition, going just 4-12 vs. teams with a winning record. They have a YTD goal differential of -7 while Minnesota is +7.  In addition to goaltending, it looks like Minnesota has two other key advantages in this one.  One is that they have had an additional day off between games.  Two is the benefit of home ice. The Wild have emerged victorious in 10 of 14 games at the XCel Center this season while the Canucks have lost four straight decisions on the road since actually winning here back on November 25th. So, there's a revenge angle present here as well. 8* Minnesota

10* NY Islanders (7:05 ET):   Columbus is a team that never even really "got out of the gate" as they dropped their first eight games, resulting in a coaching change, and have found themselves buried at the bottom of the Metro all season long. Under John Tortorella, they've been able to at least stay competitive, but the bottom line is that they come into Saturday having dropped five of their last six and they now have a major problem between the pipes as Sergei Bobrovsky is out 4-6 weeks due to a groin injury.  That's not good news when getting set to face a top tier team like the Islanders and considering the way the Blue Jackets' first game w/o "Bob" went (allowed six goals), I'd say they're in major trouble here.

The Isles have surged near the top of the Metro thanks to a 6-2-2 run their L10 games, including a 4-3 win at Philadelphia back on Tuesday. Having three days off between road games is a pretty nice luxury to have and I expect the club to take full advantage. Now they were outshot 46-26 by the Flyers their last time out and needed a shootout to get the two points (third straight SO win). But, I'm confident that we'll start seeing more "complete" efforts from this group moving forward as they still rank in the top eight in both goals scored and allowed.  The goaltending has been lights out recently, whether it's Thomas Greiss or Jaroslav Halak between the pipes, and earlier this year Halak shut out the Jackets in a 4-0 win.  New York has also had tremendous long-term success in division games. Against the rest of the Metro, they are 26-6-5 SU since the start of last season. 

As for Columbus, things have taken an ominous turn since the Bobrovsky injury.  They led the Kings 2-1 in the third period Tuesday when he had to leave and ended up losing that game in overtime.  Curtis McElhinney was then not sharp to say the least two nights ago, allowing three goals on the first five shots he saw vs. Winnipeg in an eventual 6-4 defeat. In eight appearances this season, McElhinney has a save percentage of .896, so the future looks bleak in Ohio's capital, especially if the team continues to allow as many shots as they have in the L2 games (76 total).  The Blue Jackets are bottom eight in the league in both goals scored/allowed, a stark contrast to tonight's opponent.  10* NY Islanders

8* Detroit (7:35 ET):  This is a matchup of the two top teams in the Atlantic and while a bit of a chasm still exists in terms of points (41 to 35) and goal differential (+29 to +1) with Montreal and Detroit, I see signs that the Red Wings will be soon closing those respective gaps. Admittedly, I was pretty lukewarm on the Wings at the start of the season due to relatively subpar possession numbers as well as a low number of shots on goal. But both seem to be on the rise of late as they have not lost in regulation over the L10 games (6-0-4).  Meanwhile, the Canadiens are in the midst of their first slide of the year (three straight losses), which should not be that surprising as they are still w/o reigning Vezina Trophy winner Carey Price.

The fact that the Habs were able to keep winning w/o Price between the pipes was pretty shocking as there's no sugarcoating what a huge loss it is having him out of the lineup for this long. But backup netminder Mike Condon has predictably come back "down to Earth" w/ an .894 save percentage his L4 starts and tonight gives way to Dustin Tokarski, who has just one appearance (not a start) to his name this year and in came in relief of Condon in what ended up being a 6-1 home loss to Colorado last month. At the same time their goaltending has predictably regressed, Montreal's offense is also struggling as well. They've totaled just nine goals in the last five games, including only one in last night's home loss to Boston where Condon gave up three goals in the third period.

Meanwhile, Detroit is also off a loss, but it came in a shootout against a very good Washington club Tuesday night and it was a road game.  Earlier, I talked about the improvement in getting shots on goal and over the L5 games Detroit is averaging 35.6.  Despite going past regulation against the Caps, they finished w/ only 23, but that came after three consecutive games where they scored five goals each time out while at the same totaling 126 shots. Goaltender Jimmy Howard has been outstanding between the pipes of late w/ a .927 save percentage his L4 starts and is most likely to get the call here. With seven straight losses to the Habs, this shapes up as a major statement/revenge game for the home team. 8* Detroit

6* Vancouver (10:05 ET):  This is just an awful spot for visiting Buffalo, who allowed four goals in a loss to Edmonton last night (I won w/ the Over!). Unlike in the NBA, where there's a pointspread, there's no such thing to take advantage of here w/ the Sabres, so I can't make any kind of case that they're "undervalued" as they continue their trek through Western Canada. Their recent scoring surge is likely to starting "coming down" as they continue to average a less than impressive number of shots per game (did have 34 last night though) as their shooting percentage of 13.7 percent the L5 games is going to be extremely difficult to maintain. Meanwhile, these are two points the Canucks must have after dropping five in a row, the latest in shutout fashion.  Go w/ the home team.

Overall, Vancouver has dropped 10 of 12, but recently they've had to take on some real quality opponents. They've played Dallas twice in the last 10 days and had to travel to Los Angeles as well.  That's both division leaders in the Western Conference. Saturday saw them get shutout here on home ice, 4-0 by the Bruins, who are 7-1-2 their L10 games.  What's really bad for the Canucks, however, is that was the third consecutive game where they finished w/ fewer than 20 shots on goal. That simply cannot happen if you want to win in today's NHL.  Things won't be getting any easier for these Canucks as the Rangers are the next team to come to town and that's followed by a six-game trip out East. So, simply put, they must take advantage of this drop in class in terms of opponent.

While the recent shot totals are a bit concerning, one thing I noticed w/ this Vancouver team is they've definitely a little bit "unlucky."  They have eight losses beyond regulation this year, which is easily the most in the entire league. In fact, no other team has more than five!  Perhaps, they can take advantage of the fact that the Sabres rank 29th in the league on the penalty kill (74.6 percent), especially due to the fact Buffalo is unrested here.  The goaltending edge goes to the home team here as they turn to Ryan Miller while the visitors likely go w/ Linus Ullmark, who has not won in his L5 starts. 6* Vancouver

10* Vancouver (10:05 ET): For a second straight season, the Pacific Division looks relatively weak.  Yes, Anaheim won it last year, tied for a Conference-leading 109 points. But there was certainly a lot of "smoke and mirrors" involved there, namely "puck luck" and a ridiculous record in one-goal games. (They actually had the worst goal differential of any playoff team!). So, the Ducks' regression this season has not surprised me at all as they are 8-11-5 w/ a goal differential of -18 that ranks among the worst in the entire league.  Even at The Pond as a small favorite, I don't see much value in this club right now; in fact the value is on the other side here w/ a Vancouver team due to break through after dropping six of its previous eight games (and 9 of its last 12).

Advanced stats kind of like this Canucks club as they rank in the top nine in both Corsi and Fenwick. (Anaheim is just outside the Top 10 in both).  Though they haven't had much success out on the ice lately, there have been three losses beyond regulation since November 8th, including their last time out (at Central-leading Dallas). In addition, they have lost four more times by exactly one goal in regulation during this skid. In many of these recent losses, they've actually had a large edge in shots, Friday included as they were 36-25 in that department against a Dallas team known for its offense. While top in goals per game and on the power play, penalty killing has been the main issue in Vancouver as they have allowed a PP goal on 14 of the L44 chances. They shouldn't have to worry much about giving up goals here, however, as Anaheim is 29th in the league in goals per game.

It's interesting to see how this year, luck has gone against the Ducks. They have lost five of the six games they've been in that went past regulation, including Friday at home to Chicago where they gave up two goals in the final two minutes and then the GW in OT. Vancouver has already come to Anaheim and won this season, 2-1 back on October 12th.  The Ducks -19 goal differential at even strength is the league's worst this season, so provided the Canucks rectify their PK issues, they should pick up a valuable two points on the road here. 10* Vancouver

9* NY Rangers (1:05 ET):  I really missed hockey on Thanksgiving as I've been having a great season. So too are the Rangers, who at 16-4-2 find themselves atop the Metro & only Montreal (the Atlantic Division leader), who got off to such a great start, has a better goal differential.  But the Blueshirts are off a rare loss here, to Montreal ironically, but what they have going for them here is the fact they have not dropped B2B games since a three-game losing skid back in mid-October. Since that time, they have gone 13-2-1. While this is a road game and the host Bruins have won four straight, the home ice advantage doesn't seem particularly strong as Boston is just 4-6-1 at TD North Bank Garden this year.

This shapes up as a "strength on strength" type matchup as the Bruins rank third in the league in goals scored per game while the Rangers are 1st in goals allowed.  Boston is #1 on the power play, but the Rangers are #3 on the penalty kill.  However, going the other way on the ice is where the Rangers seem to have the edges.  They too can score, ranking 6th overall in goals per game and a respectable 14th w/ the man advantage.  Meanwhile, the Bruins are 24th in gpg allowed and a disastrous 27th on the penalty kill.  This is the first matchup of the season between these two.  While the home team won all three times last year, this time things are a bit more one-sided.

Boston has been beating some bad teams of late, namely Toronto (twice) and Detroit. So, let's pump the brakes a bit on this win streak of theirs.  The last two, while on the road, were both decided beyond regulation (one in OT and one in a shootout) and saw them get severely outshot. Atypically, their PK unit saved them against Toronto (6 for 6!) as they were outshot in that game, 42-29.  Last time on the ice, they were outshot 34-22 by Detroit and were less than two minutes away from losing until tying up the game.  Scoring three times on 22 shots is pretty hard to do and not a sustainable blueprint for success.  I look for Rangers' goaltender Henrik Lundqvist (.941 save percentage on the road!) to be the difference maker in this one.  9* NY Rangers

5* Washington (7:05 ET): As I've written before, the Capitals are a top five team in the league right now. The only three teams w/ better YTD goal differentials are all in first place in their respective divisions; the Caps only "issue" is that they are in the Metro w/ the red hot Rangers (who I won w/ on Monday btw).  As for the Caps, they too won for me on Monday, but in a different manner as I had the Under in their 1-0 shutout of the Oilers here at home. We should expect more scoring from them tonight, however, considering they'd scored seven goals the previous game and are facing a Winnipeg club allowing an average of 3.4 goals per game on the road. Overall, the Jets rank 28th in the league in goals allowed. It's not that often that I lay this kind of juice, but doing so here is justifiable.

A big key to Washington's success is that they allow, on average, the second fewest number of shots per game in the entire league (25.9).  (Trailing Carolina, of all teams!). This obviously makes goalie Braden Holtby's job rather easy and he's responded w/ a .943 save percentage his L4 starts. He stopped all 33 shots he saw against Edmonton, a high number, including one incredible glove save. It was actually Holtby's first shutout of the season, but he does have a 1.42 goals against average his L7 starts, reflecting the kind of consistency he brings to the table. Holtby will be back between the pipes tonight against a Winnipeg team that has not played well on the road this season, including getting outscored 24-10 their last three away from home.

The Jets really let one get away from them on Monday, losing 4-1 to Colorado at home after giving up three third period goals. Keep in mind that's the same Avs club Washington just beat 7-3 here at home. Overall, Winnipeg has dropped seven of nine and they've been really roughed up a couple of times during that stretch, most notably a 7-0 loss at Nashville and 6-3 loss at Dallas.  That's the kind of caliber opponent they face here and the result could very well end up being similar. The Caps have taken care of business against teams w/ a losing record this season, winning eight of nine. 5* Washington

9* NY Rangers (7:05 ET):  This is a really cheap price on the Rangers, at home. They've won 10 of 11 overall and last time out bounced back from their only loss during that span w/ a 5-4 OT win over the Florida Panthers. That was just the second time during the win streak that they were taken beyond regulation and while they were outshot drastically (43-31), it was the sixth time they'd scored 4+ goals. I'm not sure why the ML would be so low in this instance as it's not like Nashville comes in playing well. The Preds have been shut out in B2B games, both times in 4-0 fashion, first by Columbus, then Minnesota.  This would be their third road game in four nights, a terrible spot, and I cannot see them turning things around tonight at MSG.

The Rangers have lost just twice on home ice this year, and are a perfect 8-0 SU their L8 here at the Garden where they're now outscoring foes by roughly two goals per game. This is a team that ranks in the top five in both goals scored and allowed for the season, ranking #1 in the latter department at just 1.9 gpg.  The driving force behind that is obviously Lundqvist, who has turned in a remarkable .943 save percentage (tops in the league) thus far this season.  The former Vezina winner really "saved" the day on Saturday w/ 39 saves and two of the goals he gave up came when the team was down a man. But I wouldn't worry too much about that as the Rangers' penalty kill currently rates as the third best in the entire league (85.1 percent) and it was just the second time all season that they allowed that many goals in a game. 

Speaking of penalties, Nashville has taken their fair share recently, leaving them short-handed a remarkable 29 times the L8 games. They are 11-5-3 this season, but overall rate as a pretty mediocre club, especially on the road where they are allowing 3.0 goals per game. Again, they have been outscored 8-0 the L2 games.  They had a huge edge in shots on goal vs. Columbus Friday (39-18!), but then could manage only 23 Saturday in Minnesota.  They've allowed exactly four goals in four of their last five road games. Pekka Rinne has a poor .891 save percentage on the road and could give way to Carter Hutton tonight. Whomever is between the pipes, the result is likely to be the same. 9* NY Rangers

9* New Jersey (10:05 ET): After Chicago tied the game 3-3 in the third period last night (thus ensuring me a winning Over bet), I stopped paying attention to Vancouver last night. So, imagine my surprise when I checked back and saw the Canucks ended up prevailing 6-3! Their final three goals all came in the final nine minutes and incredibly they were able to score six times despite only 20 shots for the entire game! Let us not forget that the Canucks had just gone 1-4-2 on a seven-game road trip and have just five wins total their last 17 games. Thus, I'm not entirely sure that the correct team is favored on the money line here and I cay w/ certainly that the visiting Devils are a great value.

Though at home, this is a tough spot for the Canucks having to play a second game in as many days.  They are just 13-18 SU in that role the last two-plus seasons, but more pertinent is that they are 0-5 this season when coming off a win by two more goals.  They have also dropped six of eight when taking on teams w/ winning records. New Jersey comes in at 10-8-1, which is surprising, as many projected them to finish near the bottom of the league in terms of points. The Devils are 0-2 so far in this trek through Western Canada, but fortunate for them is these games have been spread out. They had a day off to recover from a 5-1 loss to Edmonton (another game where I cashed the Over) and unlike many teams who have to do this trip in four days, New Jersey has had six to complete theirs.

The Devils do rank near the bottom of the league in number of shots per game, but they are top 10 in both penalty killing and goals allowed and have Corey Schneider back in net tonight.  The very subpar Keith Kincaid was between the pipes Friday and you saw the end result there.  Schneider has a .935 save percentage his L4 starts. Assuming New Jersey can do better than 20 shots here (how many they had vs. both Calgary and Edmonton), they should be just fine.  The Canucks are allowing an average of 32.8 shots per game their L5 and they can't be relying on the Sedins to register nine points like they had last night. The Devils beat Vancouver 4-3 earlier this month, by the way. 9* New Jersey

10* Washington (8:05 ET):  I think that everything sets up beautifully here for the Capitals.  Sure, they are off a loss, 3-2 to Calgary.  But that was five days ago and thus they've had plenty of time to "get over it."  They should certainly be eager to take the ice, considering this is a revenge spot for their only other defeat over the L5 games, a brutal 1-0 decision at the hands of these Red Wings.  That was a game that the Caps had a 38-27 edge in shots on goal.  As I've mentioned before, lacking in shots is nothing new for Detroit, who comes in ranked next to last in # of shots per game in the entire league (25.9), just barely ahead of New Jersey. While Washington is a top five team in the league right now, Detroit is lucky to even be .500. 

The Capitals are one of just five teams with a double digit positive goal differential (+13).  Three of the other four are in first place in their respective divisions; the Caps simply have the misfortune of being in the Metro alongside the hottest team in the league right now, the Rangers.   Friday's loss to Calgary for Ovechkin and company came in overtime and it was their third game in four nights, so it wasn't a particularly great spot. Still though, they did manage to outshoot the Flames 36-29 and there have been only three instances so far this season where Washington has been outshot by its opponent.  Two of those times came in the first three games. Since then, they've pretty much been controlling the puck (3rd in Corsi & Fenwick) and more "traditional" stats like this team as well. They rank top seven in both goals scored and allowed as well as on the power play & penalty kill.

The main problem lately for the Caps is that Ovi has gone three consecutive games w/o scoring, perhaps pressing as he attempts to break Sergei Fedorov's all-time record for most goals scored by a Russian-born player.  I would not be surprised at all to see him get the record tonight as the Red Wings (Fedorov's team) have given up exactly three goals in three straight games.  Monday's win in Ottawa was Detroit's highest scoring game (four goals) since another road win over the Senators back on Halloween. In the six games in between, the Wings scored just nine goals total.  Braden Holtby will be back between the pipes for the Caps tonight and has a 1.49 GAA his L4 starts. He's allowed just three goals on 90 shots his L3 starts vs. Detroit.  10* Washington

6* Nashville (8:05 ET):  As I've previously written, Anaheim's early season struggles are not that big of a surprise to me as last year's incredible "puck luck" indicated that regression was probably on its way for 2015-16.  Just to rehash, the Ducks had a phenomenal record in one-goal games a year ago, so while they finished w/ 109 points (tied for tops in the West), they had a goal differential of only +10, which was the lowest among ALL playoff teams. This year, to put it mildly, they are struggling to score w/ their 1.8 goals per game average ranking dead last in the league.  That's a problematic number to begin with, but when facing an opponent that has twice scored 7 goals in its last three games, it becomes a nightmare matchup. I'm riding w/ Nashville in this one.

The Predators just blanked the Jets, 7-0, here at home Saturday night and are off to an impressive 10-3-3 start overall. They rank in the top seven in the league in both goals scored and allowed. Possession numbers are great and advanced metrics, such as Corsi and Fenwick, really like this team as they rank #5 and #2 in the league in those two respective categories.  This being a fourth consecutive home game w/ two days rest means there's no situational issues to be concerned about. In four of the past six games, the Preds have outshot their opponent by a double digit margin. It was a 34-20 edge vs. Winnipeg Saturday night as they jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first period, improving to 9-1-1 this season when scoring first. 

All that's keeping the Ducks afloat right now is the league's top PK unit (90.5 percent).  They killed off all three power plays they faced last night in a 4-1 win over lowly Carolina, a fortunate result given that they had only 20 shots on goal for the entire game.  The team had lost three in a row previously, all at home, and playing here in the second night of a back to back does them no favors, in my opinion. On the road this season, Anaheim is averaging just 23.2 shots per game and has been shut out four different times. This is a revenge spot for the Preds, who lost 4-2 in Anaheim back on the first of the month (despite a 42-28 edge in shots). This time will be different, however, as Pekka Rinne will be between the pipes. He has a 1.94 goals against average in 11 home starts against Anaheim.  6* Nashville

8* Montreal (7:35 ET): For the first time all season, I don't have the Habs in the top spot in my own personal power ratings (Rangers have taken over that spot). They have dropped B2B games, at Pittsburgh and vs Colorado, giving up 10 goals in the process. Their recent "mini-tumble" has coincided w/ the injury to goaltender Carey Price.  However, let's be clear here: this is still one of the best teams in the sport. They are 2nd in both goals scored and allowed and top three on both the power play and penalty kill.  Before getting pulled Saturday vs. Colorado, backup netminder Mike Condon had actually been playing quite well. He'd posted a 1.60 goals against average his first five starts after the Price injury and despite getting blown out 6-1 to the Avs, the Canadiens actually finished the game w/ a 40-24 edge in shots on goal. It was their first regulation loss all season. I'll call for them to bounce back here.

Meanwhile, Vancouver has dropped five of six and this will be their sixth consecutive road game out East. The trip finally ends Wednesday in Winnipeg and when it does, the Canucks will likely be very happy. That's because things have simply not gone well thus far, including losses at Buffalo and Toronto. Ryan Miller is really struggling in goal right now as he's allowed three or more goals in five straight starts, turning in a 3.46 GAA. His save percentage in his last four is a woeful .878! Shockingly, the Canucks beat Montreal 5-1 earlier in the season, but that was in Vancouver.  I like this as not only a "get-well," but also a revenge spot for the Habs.

Montreal has dropped consecutive games only one other time all season and in that instance they responded by blowing out another Western Canada team, Calgary, 6-2 on the road.  Again, they hadn't lost in regulation prior to the weekend.  Vancouver may have registered a season-high 45 shots in their 4-2 loss to Toronto on Saturday, but for a second time in three games, they also yielded 40+.  That's just not winning hockey and the team hasn't had much success here in Montreal, dropping five of their past six visits. 8* Montreal