7* Toronto (4:05 ET): A couple days ago, I wrote about what a jumbled mess the NHL's Atlantic Division seems to be. Boston has raced out in front, but after that it's "anybody's ball game." You have to expect Tampa Bay will be surging up the standings at some point and the same can probably be said for Toronto. The Maple Leafs just won their last game 6-0 (over lowly Detroit) and have now won three straight, all on the road. I like them Friday as big favorites in Buffalo.

The Sabres seem to be trending in the opposite direction. They are just 2-8-2 SU this month and have dropped 11 of 13 overall. This would be the second year in a row the Sabres are quickly fading after a strong start. Last year, they opened 17-6-2 SU only to be well out of playoff contention down the stretch. This year, the start was better and the fade faster. They just lost to a Calgary team that's having all sorts of trouble - on and off the ice - right now.

Coaching changes happen a lot more in this sport and Toronto recently made one. A six-game losing streak led to the dismissal of Mike Babcock and the Leafs haven't lost since. It's now Sheldon Keefe's team and he'll look to continue a streak set by his predecessor as the Leafs have beaten the Sabres five straight times. Goalie Frederik Andersen has been really strong of late between the pipes w/ a .956 save percentage his L3 starts. He has a 10-3 SU career record vs. Buffalo. 7* Toronto

7* Washington (7:05 ET): Florida is currently second in the Atlantic w/ 29 points, but that is not something you should put much stock into here, or moving forward. The Panthers have a -1 YTD goal differential, owed to the fact they have allowed the second most goals overall. Only the worst team in the league (Detroit) has let more in the back of the net. This would seem to be a major problem when getting ready to face a Capitals team that leads the NHL in goals scored. Expect this to be an easy two points for the home team. 

The Caps have lost two in a row for the first time in a well over a month. Before the B2B losses, they had gone 14-2-2 over an 18-game stretch. They still lead the Metro mind you w/ 37 points. While they were thoroughly outplayed in a shocking 4-1 loss to the Rangers seven days ago, the 2-1 loss to Vancouver on Saturday (went to a shootout) clearly was a game they should have won. Adding to the Caps motivation here is the fact they've lost three straight time to the Panthers at home. That's not something you'd expect. 

Florida also comes into tonight having dropped two straight. Par for the course, they allowed nine goals in losses to Carolina and Buffalo. Both teams may be in similar situation, but the favorite is clearly better positioned to bounce back. Washington also has had three days off, a situation where they are 2-0 SU this year. This is an elite offensive club facing one of the worst defensive clubs in the league. 7* Washington

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Just when you thought Vancouver's hot start to the season had been exposed, they go out and pull B2B upsets on the road. They won at both Nashville and Washington, the latter coming in a shootout. Speaking of shootouts, this is a rematch of a game that went to one as Vancouver ended up winning 3-2 back on October 12th. The Flyers have struggled all season in shootouts (league leading 8 losses in them), but at the same time they've only been beaten  in regulation one time here at home. Off a tough loss to Calgary (in a shootout, of course), I look for the Flyers to bounce back and get two points tonight. 

The Canucks were big underdogs on the ML in these last two victories. Cashing in at +145 and +160 may look nice, but both wins were somewhat fluky. Beating Nashville 6-3 on Thursday saw Vancouver tally FIVE power play goals in a game they were outshot 48-23. The 2-1 win over Washington on Saturday not only went to a shootout, it also marked the 1st time all season that the Canucks won a game in which they scored two or fewer goals. Bottom line: I don't see them pulling a 3rd straight upset on the road.

Philly has dropped five of six overall w/ three of those five losses a part of those league-leading eight in shootouts. Saturday's 3-2 setback at the hands of a Calgary team that had NOT been playing well saw the Flyers blow a late lead in regulation. They outshot the Flames 38-27. It was a game they should not have lost, plain and simple. The Flyers are averaging 3.4 goals per game at home while the Canucks only average 2.6 on the road. That's a more sizable difference than you think. 10* Philadelphia

10* Carolina (7:05 ET): Two teams moving in vastly different directions meet tonight in the Motor City. Carolina, who won last night, has gone 5-1 in its last six games. Meanwhile, Detroit has lost five in a row, including last night’s 5-1 setback in New Jersey. The Hurricanes have already blown out the Red Wings once this year (7-3) and I see no reason why it won’t happen again on Sunday. 

The Canes have scored at least four goals in each of their last five wins. It was a 4-2 win over Florida last night. Considering they scored seven the last time they played the Red Wings, it should be another big night offensively here. This is one of the top scoring teams in the league for the season (3.5 goals per game) and they also get off plenty of shots on a per game basis. Detroit is giving up 3.8 goals per game as well, which is the worst average in the league. 

As if this matchup wasn’t already unfavorable enough for the Red Wings, they’ll also be playing without their leading scorer tonight. Anthony Mantha, who has 12 goals and 23 points, left the game in the first period last night. While the injury remains undisclosed at press time, it is known that Mantha is going to miss “at least a week.” Detroit gave up four goals in the third period of last night’s 5-1 loss, so their collective spirit probably couldn’t be any lower coming into this second game of a back to back. They already have the fewest points (17) and worst goal differential (-37) in the entire league. 10* Carolina

7* Nashville (8:05 ET): You can bet the Predators will be eager to take the ice Tuesday after they were embarrassed here at home their last time out. Friday's 7-2 loss to the Blackhawks was the Preds' fourth straight setback and sixth in the last seven games. Goaltending, once considered a major strength, has been real shaky of late w/ 22 goals allowed in the four games. Uncharacteristically, Pekka Rinne has been pulled in two different times in the past week. I expect a big bounce back from the Preds in this spot as the team has an 8-1 record the last nine times it has been off a home loss by 3+ goals. 

Winnipeg comes in off B2B road wins. They defeated Florida & Tampa Bay by identical 4-3 scores to start what will be a four-game trip (ends in Dallas Thursday). The Jets have won six of eight overall, but interestingly enough have lost both times they've been off B2B wins. They've won three in a row just one time all season. A four-game road winning streak has seen them prevail by a one-goal margin every time. In fact, the Jets are a very fortunate 9-1-1 SU in all one-goal games this season, a win percentage that cannot be maintained in that situation. 

On the year, the Jets are still giving up 3.5 goals per game away from home. Despite the recent results, Winnipeg has still been outscored on the season while Nashville has a positive goal differential. Should he be back in goal tonight, Rinne is too good to have these struggles continue. The most shocking thing of all about that 7-2 loss to Chicago is that Nashville finished w/ a substantial edge in shots on goal (41-24). The Jets tend to give up a far higher volume of shot attempts compared to the Predators. Nashville certainly remembers losing three of four to Winnipeg last season, which adds to their motivation here. 7* Nashville

9* Chicago (7:05 ET): After a fast start to the season, Buffalo has cooled off considerably. If this narrative sounds familiar, well, they did the exact same thing last season. The Sabres came into Saturday as losers of six in a row, all but one of the losses coming in regulation. But they were fortunate to draw a terrible Ottawa team last night. The Sabres beat the Senators 4-2, snapping that ugly losing skid. But now they've got to hit the road and play a suddenly hot Chicago team.

The Blackhawks have won 5 of 7 and just scored 7 times in an impressive win at Nashville last night. The game before that, they went to Vegas and won as +220 ML underdogs! This is the first time all season that Chicago has been above .500 and they've tallied 5+ goals in 4 of their last 5 games. While they still have many of the core players that led them to three Stanley Cups, Chicago has "gone young" w/ the call-ups of 18-year old Kirby Dach and 19-year old Adam Boqvist. It has paid off so far. 

Both teams are playing the second night of a back to back, but that's about all they have in common coming into this one. Chicago is clearly the hotter team and playing at home. They just beat two of the West's best teams on the road and did so in impressive fashion. Buffalo's only win in its last seven games came against a team that is tied for the 2nd fewest points in the league. All four of the Sabres goals last night came from Jack Eichel (new career-high). He can't carry the team like that every night. 9* Chicago

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Penguins aren't just off a loss here, they're also w/o superstar Sidney Crosby for the next six weeks. This is a banged up team right now w/ not only Crosby out, but some other key players as well. But through it all, they've managed to outscore opponents by 13 goals this season. That's a top four margin in the Eastern Conference. It's not like playing w/o Crosby is anything new. He's missed substantial time before and yet the Pens have always seemed to be successful. Perception of this team will now change, but I think they're a great value tonight in New Jersey.  

The Devils have the fewest points in the league (14) as well as the worst goal differential (-21). So objectively speaking, it is fair to call them the worst team in the league. I know that this club has generally been competitive despite losing most of its games. But they've still lost six of nine. They just lost to lowly Ottawa (here at home) on Wednesday after allowing three goals in a 6 1/2 minute span in the third period. The Devils are 2nd to last in the league in goals scored and have found the back of the net only eight times in the last five games. 

The Penguins were able to battle back from a 2-0 deficit to earn a point against the Rangers on Tuesday. That was their first game w/o Crosby. Though Crosby is the team leader in points, Pittsburgh can still lean on its goaltending as they are 5th in the league in goals allowed per game. That's significantly better than New Jersey, who is 30th in that department. It's pretty shocking to see NJ is 6-1-1 the past eight head to head meetings w/ the Pens. With people doubting them, I look for Pittsburgh to go out and pick up two points tonight. 10* Pittsburgh 

8* Vancouver (10:05 ET): Dallas comes in on an 8-1-1 hot streak, but is also playing the second night of a back to back. They won 3-1 last night in Calgary, a game in which they never trailed and only allowed 25 shots on goal. But the task is tougher tonight in British Columbia and not just because of the schedule. The Canucks are off to a solid start this year and despite losing four of their last five games, they still own the West's 2nd best goal differential. I'm backing the home team in this one. 

After scoring just five goals total in four straight defeats, Vancouver busted loose for five goals in a win over Nashville Tuesday. That was a nice rebound following a loss to the lowly Devils on Sunday. The Canucks have played quite well at home this year, losing just one time in regulation and outscoring their visitors by an impressive 1.9 goals per game. No team in the league can match the Canucks' scoring average here at home, which is 4.25 goals per game. 

Before this 8-1-1 hot streak, Dallas had started the year 1-7-1. So it's been a total reversal of fortune for them. A true representation of where the team is at probably is somewhere "in the middle" of those two disparate streaks. They've got a goal differential of 0 on the year. This is already the 4th B2B for the Stars this year and it's also the third road game in five nights. The schedule should finally start catching up w/ them tonight as Vancouver looks to flash the form that had them off to a 9-3-2 start to the season. 8* Vancouver

9* Carolina (7:05 ET): Buffalo started the season like a house of fire, but has cooled off considerably, which was to be expected. After all, this is a franchise that hasn't finished a season w/ more than 89 points since 2010-11, which (not coincidentally) was also the last time they made the playoffs. They've lost five in a row entering tonight's home date w/ Carolina, a team that the Sabres are 0-6 against the previous two seasons. The losing streak continues in upstate NY. 

Carolina was dealing w/ its own four-game slide entering play on Monday. But they got to face a sorry Ottawa team for a second straight time and won 8-2, thereby avenging a loss to the Senators that took place just two days prior. Now it's back on the road. As they usually do, the Hurricanes are getting the puck on net. They average 34.1 shots per game, which is top five in the league. For awhile, they couldn't find the back of the net, but that all changed on Monday w/ their highest scoring game of the season. There was also a game earlier in the year where they finished w/ 7 goals. So this team definitely can score. 

Buffalo has not been able to score much recently. They've been outscored 18-8 during the five-game losing streak and the last four losses have all come in regulation. The last two took place over in Stockholm, Sweden against Tampa Bay. We've seen teams struggle after returning from Europe this year, even though they get ample time off. The Sabres last played Saturday when they lost a wild 5-3 game that saw 83 total shots on goal. So far this year, the team is 0-2 when taking the ice w/ three or more days rest. 9* Carolina 

6* Vegas (10:05 ET): Even though it's the Golden Knights that are having the better start to the season, they are the ones off a loss here while the Blackhawks are off a rare win. I think this situation creates an excellent 'play-on' opportunity, even at this high price. By this point, everybody knows what a strong home-ice advantage Vegas has here at the T-Mobile Arena. They have gone 57-25-9 SU all-time in regular season home games (this is their third year of existence). It's something not to be underestimated. Nor is the Golden Knights 7-0 all-time record vs. Chicago. 

While history is on the side of the Golden Knights coming into tonight, I have to admit that their recent play leaves a lot to be desired. They didn't just lose their last game. They've dropped three in a row and five of six. Three of those losses were in OT however and the last three were all on the road. Two of the three road losses came against Toronto and Washington, which is excusable. But losing to Detroit is not. Though that loss on Sunday to the Red Wings did come at the end of the trip and it was the second night of a back to back. Some positive news is that the Golden Knights are 9-4 SU all-time when on a 3-game losing skid.

Chicago has won just once on the road this year, so they seem like an unlikely team to crack the code that is the "Vegas flu." The Blackhawks have alternated wins and losses over their last five games and have won B2B games only one time this season. That one time saw them cash in on a pair of home games that were played four days apart. They are averaging just 1.9 goals per game on the road so far, which is second fewest in the league. Also, they are off a 5-4 win (against Toronto). This season Chicago is 0-3 SU after scoring 4+ goals in its last game. All signs point to the home team bouncing back here. 6* Vegas

7* Montreal (7:05 ET): The Canadiens are playing well right now. They've gone 5-1-1 their last seven games. The lone regulation loss came in Dallas at the end of a three-game trip out West. Saturday saw the club pick up two points here at home as they held on for a 3-2 win over the Kings (led 3-0 in the 1st period). Tonight is another home game against a bad team, that being Columbus, who has lost six of their last seven games. Look for the Habs to win again. 

The Blue Jackets have been outscored 26-14 in a 1-5-1 slide that has them near the bottom of the Metropolitan Division. This slide has resulted in C-bus having one of the YTD goal differentials in the league. Only three teams - the Red Wings, Devils and Kings - have been outscored more this season. Making matters worse, the team is going to be w/o forward Nick Foligno tonight as he has been suspended for three games due to elbowing Colorado's Pierre-Edouard Bellemare.

Columbus is also turning to a backup goalie in this spot, Elvis Merzlikins, who was just recalled from the AHL affiliate in Cleveland. Merzlikins has started three games so far this season and has a poor .882 save percentage. It just so happens the Blue Jackets have lost all three of those games as well. The backup goalie situation, the fact this is the finale of a three-game road trip for C-bus and the respective play of the two teams recently have me "all in" on the Canadiens here. Montreal is capable of scoring plenty and often does here on home ice. 7* Montreal 

10* Nashville (10:35 ET): You can bet the Predators will be eager to take the ice here after being embarrassed in Colorado Thursday night. They lost 9-4 to the Avs, a shocking result for a team that had outscored its first 15 opponents by 17 goals. It was also their third loss in the last four games. But they get a reprieve tonight w/ this matchup against the Sharks. Despite posting B2B wins, San Jose has not been good this season as they've been outscored by 17 goals so far. Earlier in the week, I took Nashville on the road against a lesser opponent (Detroit). They won 6-1 and that's what I'm expecting here.

This will be the 5th game on a 6-game homestand for San Jose. They lost the first two. But now they're back to 2-2 through four games. However, the two wins were against Chicago and Minnesota, the two weakest teams out of the Central. Plus, both situations were favorable. The Sharks got to play the Blackhawks at the end of a long road trip while the Wild were also in the 2nd of B2B road games. They still are allowing the 4th most goals per game in the league entering tonight.

Everyone is talking about Washington's offense right now, but Nashville actually averages the same number of goals per game (4.00). But it obviously wasn't offense that was the problem Thursday at Colorado. The nine goals allowed were a franchise record. Most shocking of all is how it happened. They actually led the Avalanche 3-2 in the second period before giving up SIX goals in an eight-minute span. Needless to say, such a thing won't be happening for the rest of the year. The Preds are simply the much better team here and already beat San Jose once, 5-2 back on October 8th (despite being outshot 35-25). 10* Nashville

9* Vancouver (8:35 ET): Our last NHL play (Tuesday) was on the Canucks and unfortunately they lost, 2-1 in overtime to the St. Louis Blues. But remember some of what I wrote in that analysis. The Canucks came into that game sporting the best goal differential in the entire Western Conference. This is a team that's still gone almost two weeks w/o losing in regulation. In fact, a 1-0 loss in New Jersey on 10.19 is the ONLY Vancouver loss in regulation since the 2nd game of the season! Let's come back w/ the Canucks here as they play a pretty weak Chicago side.

The Blackhawks have won just four games this season, tied for the fewest in the league. This club just isn't what it used to be. It's 33 goals scored actually ranks LAST in the league coming into Thursday, which is a bigger problem than usual as only one team in the Western Conference (Nashville) has scored more goals this season than Vancouver. Even when the Canucks weren't winning much the last couple seasons, they generally handled their business against the Blackhawks. They've taken five of the previous six head to head matchups. 

There's another issue for Chicago heading into this game and that's the number of shots they've been allowing recently. The previous five Blackhawks' opponents have averaged 41.3 shots per game, a very high number indeed. Vancouver did outshoot St. Louis in its last game, 34-27, and hasn't dropped B2B games since starting 0-2. The Canucks are a perfect 3-0 this season following a game in which they scored 1 goal or less. Chicago has lost 7 of 9 and this is the first game back after a long-road trip. They're set to hit the road again Saturday (playing in Pittsburgh), so there may not be a lot left in the tank late in this game. 9* Vancouver

analysis soon

6* Nashville (7:35 ET): The Predators are certainly not in the best of moods as they set out to embark on a four-game road trip. They've lost two in a row, both at home, and really those are games they should have easily won. Halloween night, it was all trick and no treat as they blew a 4-1 third period lead against Calgary and ended up losing 6-5 in overtime. They gave up the game-tying goal in the final minute of regulation in that one. Then on Saturday, the Preds lost 2-1 to the Rangers, a game where they were -260 on the money line! My view for tonight is that they'll look across the ice, see a weak opponent and "smell blood." Look for a bounce back Monday. 

The Preds may be steaming after suffering B2B losses, but that's nothing compared to what the Red Wings are going through right now. This once proud organization has fallen on hard times. The team has lost 10 of 11 (all but one loss in regulation) and has the worst the goal differential (-24) in the sport. They have the 2nd fewest points (9), only two ahead of division rival Ottawa. As badly as October ended, November has started even worse in the Motor City w/ the Wings being outscored 11-3 in two games. They lost 7-3 at Carolina and then were shutout (4-0) at Florida. Getting last night off was just a momentary reprieve, not enough time to recoup. Following a loss by two or more goals, Detroit is 17-42 SU the L3 seasons including 1-7 to start 2019. 

Despite the B2B losses, Nashville isn't in terrible shape. They have the best YTD goal differential in the Central Division (+12). Adding to their motivation here is the fact that this is a triple revenge spot. Not only did they drop a home game to the Red Wings back on Oct 5 (where they were -255 on the ML!), but they lost both meetings LY as well. Those head to head results just don't make much sense to me as the Preds are pretty obviously the better team here. They get their revenge - and back on track - tonight. 6* Nashville 

10* Calgary (7:05 ET): The Flames finished first in the Western Conference last year, but "flamed out" (terrible pun!) in the 1st round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They figured to regress a bit this year and have started somewhat slow 7-6-2. They're coming to the end of a long road trip (5 games), which concludes tomorrow night in Washington. Halloween night brought a much needed 6-5 win in Nashville as the trip started w/ B2B losses. When they win, the Flames often score a lot, so I like tonight's matchup against a Columbus team that has really struggled on the goals allowed side of the ledger recently. 

I was very disappointed in the Blue Jackets' performance Wednesday night. They were at home vs. Edmonton and lost 4-1, a game they managed only 24 shots and trailed 4-0 early in the 2nd period. The Jackets' losing streak hit three last night w/ an OT loss in St. Louis. All overtime losses are pretty painful, but this one in particular had to sting C-bus as they were ahead 3-1 in the third period. Being in the second game of a B2B here does the Jackets no favors whatsoever. They've allowed 3+ goals in seven straight games, losing five of them. At the same time, they are averaging just 2.3 goals per game at home, which is tied for 2nd fewest in the league. 

The Flames have had some issues scoring on the road, but did just score six times in the win in Nashville Wednesday night. The GW goal came w/ just 1.2 seconds remaining in OT, courtesy of Matthew Tkachuk, and may be the prettiest goal you see all year. It was a game the Flames trailed 4-1 heading into the third period, so the two teams here have very different emotional mindsets coming into tonight. Calgary swept Columbus LY, scoring 13 goals in the two games, including NINE in the win here! The last time C-bus had to play the second game of a B2B, it was here at home and they lost 3-2 to the Islanders. Their -13 goal differential is 3rd worst in the East and 6th worst overall. 10* Calgary

7* Washington (7:05 ET): The ML for this matchup of division leaders should tell you a lot. Normally, when you envision two division leaders meeting, the thought is of a hard-fought battle between two evenly matched teams. Not here though. It's still early in the NHL season mind you, which means "division leader" doesn't necessarily hold as much water as it would ... say in January or February. Buffalo is 9-2-2 right now, but you have to wonder if they are capable of maintaining that kind of pace. This is a team that finished w/ only 76 points last season. Washington, on the other hand, is a proven commodity, and the right side here. 

We've already seen the Sabres start to regress a bit as they've dropped two of their last three games. They haven't exactly faced a "murderer's row" of opponents either: the Rangers, Red Wings and Coyotes. The first two are right near the bottom of the league in points. Buffalo was held to two goals in each of those three games as its early season scoring blitz seems to have subsided. Perhaps playing 13 games in 26 days has started to take its toll? Monday (vs. Arizona) was the first home loss of the season. They have lost 11 of the last 14 times they've faced the Caps, including an 0-5-2 mark here in D.C. 

Conversely, the Capitals started slow, but now look like the best team in the league. They've won 7 of 8 w/ the only loss coming in Edmonton, a game in which the Caps held a 3-1 third period lead. They've scored 4+ goals in the L7 wins, putting them on top of the league in scoring (3.9 goals per game). Defenseman John Carlson had himself a record-setting October w/ 23 points. But perhaps the most impressive thing of all is that most of the Caps' games so far have been on the road where they are now 7-1-1. This will be just their sixth game at home and they welcome back Braden Holtby between the pipes. Holtby sat out Tuesday's 4-3 OT win in Toronto. He is 4-0-1 his L5 appearances. 7* Washington

10* Columbus (7:30 ET): I've previously run through some of the issues w/ Edmonton. Their 7-1 start to the season was somewhat of a "mirage" as they had to come from behind to win each of the first five games and were also being outshot rather dramatically. Things have definitely come back "down to Earth" for the Oilers in the L5 games w/ them losing four times and the only win being yet another come from behind effort where they rallied from a 3-1 third period deficit to beat Washington 4-3 in OT. Losses to Detroit and Florida over the previous three days were not all that surprising on this end and a clear sign this club is predictably regressing to the mean. 

This will be the second game of a back to back for Edmonton (more on last night's game in a moment). For Columbus, they've had three days off to recoup from a 7-4 loss at Philadelphia. That was the second time this year that the Blue Jackets allowed 7 goals in a game, but both times came on the road. Something else to keep in mind is that the Blue Jackets were actually up on the Flyers (4-2) in the third period before giving up five unanswered goals. Prior to that game, they'd won B2B games and hadn't lost in regulation in more than two weeks. The situation is totally in the Blue Jackets' favor tonight as they are coming in well-rested. They are also 35-17 SU off a loss by 2+ goals. 

So Edmonton was in Detroit last night where they lost 3-1. That came on the heels of their worst defensive effort of the season, Sunday's 6-2 home loss to Florida. The Red Wings had lost eight in a row before beating the Oilers, so that's a bad loss for Edmonton. Something I first wrote about weeks ago was that the Oilers' shooting percentage was set to go down. It has. They are still 28th in the league in shots per game, so that decrease should continue. It's just the opposite for C-bus, who averages a healthy number of shots per game (33.6), but is only 21st in goals per game. The Jackets have some revenge here after dropping both games to Edmonton LY. 10* Columbus

6* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): The Lightning lost their last time out, 3-2 at home to Nashville (in OT), but tonight seems like a good landing spot as they visit MSG to face the struggling Rangers. At 5-3-2 overall, it's been a bit of a disappointing start for TB, who were 7-2-1 at this time last year en route to a record-setting 62-16-4 regular season (of course, we all remember what then happened in the playoffs). My view is that you'll have to "pick and choose" your spots w/ the Lightning this year, but this is a spot where I definitely love them as they've gone 3-0 off their previous three losses. 

The Rangers have lost six of seven, their only win coming against a Buffalo team that's been the biggest early season surprise. So the Lightning definitely should still take this game seriously and they will. But the bottom line is that the Blueshirts still only have 7 points on the year, which is second fewest in the entire league. They've only been outscored by 5 goals, but giving up 7 was definitely not a "good look" Sunday against Boston. That loss came here at home where the Rangers are now 2-3-1. They are 0-3 SU this season off a loss by 2+ goals. 

As you might have guessed, the Lightning have had the Rangers' number the last couple years, winning five of the last six meetings. That includes a 3-0 record here at MSG, two of those wins coming last season.  Something to keep in mind when it comes to the Lightning's start to the year is that they've played a lot of road games so far. Earlier in the year, they were able to go 3-2-1 on a six-game trip and they faced a lot better teams than the one they'll face off w/ tonight. The Rangers are giving up lots of shots (36.9 per game), the most in the league in fact, and that's led to them also giving up the second most goals. With all their firepower, the Lightning should certainly take advantage. 6* Tampa Bay

8* Vegas (6:05 ET): Colorado is 7-1-1 to start the year and leads the Central Division w/ 15 points. But tonight they'll venture into perhaps the most challenging venue for opposing teams in the entire NHL. That would be T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas where in just 2+ years, the Golden Knights have built one of the strongest home ice advantages in the league. Colorado has never won here in three all-time tries. In fact, the six times these two teams have met, the home team has never won period! Vegas has already lost twice at home this year, but don't expect them to here as this will be treated as a game w/ the utmost importance. 

Vegas is 7-4 SU and coming off a 2-1 win in Chicago that went to a shootout. The Golden Knights had both Wednesday and Thursday off to recover and now return home where they are 56-24-7 all-time in the regular season. That's obviously a very strong record and it also helps that Colorado has been a poor road team each of the last two years. Also, tonight's game marks the end of a six-game road trip for the Avs. They lost Monday in St. Louis, which was their first regulation loss all season. It's a trip that started out on the East Coast 11 days ago and now concludes w/ a special early start time. Tough spot. 

Making matters tougher for the Avs is the fact they won't have Mikko Rantanen. Something we've harped on in the past is that the Avs aren't a particularly deep group and instead rely heavily on the line of Rantanen-MacKinnon-Landeskog. Well, a key component from that fierce line is now gone. Rantanen set career highs in goals, assists and points last season and was tied for the team lead w/ 12 points this year. He was the only player to have at least one point in every game. So his absence is clearly significant. Given the circumstances, there won't be a more "excusable" loss for Colorado all season. 8* Vegas

10* Washington (9:05 ET): We've had some success playing on/against these teams recently and our respective reads have not changed. In the case of the Capitals, they won for us both last Friday (5-2 over the Rangers) and then again Sunday (5-3 at Chicago). They made it four straight wins for themselves Tuesday by beating Calgary 5-3. As for the Oilers, we first played against them 10 days ago in Chicago (they lost 3-1) and then again Tuesday when they were shutout by Minnesota (3-0). Those happen to be the Oilers' only two losses in regulation this season, but as we're about to get into, there are some real flaws w/ this team. Back the Caps and fade the Oilers yet again. 

So Washington has scored a total of 19 goals during its four-game win streak and has scored 4+ goals in six of its last seven games overall. So this is a team clearly "in the zone" right now. They are 5-1 on the road w/ a power play that's converting 38.9% of the time in those games (despite going 0 for 3 in Calgary). As mentioned in previous writeups, the Caps are getting their offense from a multitude of contributors right now. T.J. Oshie scored twice in that win over the Rangers last Friday, but the big story has been John Carlson's team high 20 points. Carlson had two goals and an assist against Calgary. Of course, there's that guy named "Ovechkin" that's still here as well. 

Edmonton has now been shutout in B2B games. Both were on the road. Simply returning home - where they've scored 17 goals and are 4-0 - might sound like an easy recipe to bounce back, but if only it were that simple. This is a team that has five come from behind victories already and the offensive decline from the L2 games was inevitable w/ a shot percentage that was simply unsustainable moving forward. The Oilers are actually dead last in the league in shots per game (26.9), so them maintaining a top 10 gpg average wasn't tenable. Their 7-1 start to the season should be considered a "mirage" and they haven't faced a team the caliber of the Capitals yet either. 10* Washington

10* Ottawa (7:35 ET): It may seem strange to take such a strong position on a team with the fewest points in the league right now, but the situation is right for an Ottawa win on Wednesday night. The Senators will be hosting the Red Wings, a team that’s lost five in a row and finds itself in a dreadful scheduling spot. Not only did Detroit play last night, losing 5-2 at home to Vancouver, but prior to that they were out West for a three-game trek through Western Canada. Now it’s back on the road. Look for the Sens to get the two points here. 

Ottawa is just 1-6-1, giving them only three points, which is the fewest in the league right now. They do have the same goal differential as Detroit though (-12). The Sens have lost four in a row, the last three coming out West, but now they’re at least back at home, which is where their only win of the season transpired. It came as a huge +215 ML underdog (against Tampa Bay). One area where Ottawa does seem to have a clear advantage here is between the pipes as Anders Nilsson has made 93 saves his L3 starts. The problem for the Ottawa goalies is that they are facing too many shots. But the Red Wings don’t average that many shots per game (29.2), so that shouldn’t be a problem here. 

Detroit has given up 33 goals in nine games so far. They have the 2nd worst average goals allowed per game average in the league right now. They’ve allowed 5 goals in four of the last five games while scoring a total of just seven themselves. The scheduling spot is brutal and it speaks volumes that Ottawa comes in as the ML favorite here despite having the fewest points in the league.  10* Ottawa

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Edmonton’s 7-1-1 record is a bit misleading when you consider they had to come from behind in each of their first five victories. In one of the two they didn’t, they were outshot 52-22 (by the Flyers). Back when we faded the Oilers two Sundays ago in Chicago (that’s where they suffered their 1st loss), I called the team’s current shooting percentage a “Houdini Act” and that it wouldn’t be sustainable. I still feel that way. Despite being LAST in the league in shots per game, the Oilers are 9th in goals. They can’t keep that up. 

Minnesota is a team that happens to rank near the bottom of the league in goals per game. Not much was expected from the Wild coming into the season w/ many going so far as to project them for last place in the Central, which is the toughest division in the sport. Sure enough, they are 2-6 and have the worst goal differential (-14) in the entire league. But the Wild are coming off an OT win over Montreal on Sunday, so hopefully that creates a spark. Edmonton lost its last game in a shootout (1-0 at Winnipeg Sunday). Tonight marks just the 3rd home game for the Wild.

This play simply boils down to us still being highly skeptical of Edmonton. While 7-1-1 on the year, their other numbers don’t paint the picture of a dominant team. We played against them in their lone regulation loss so far and that’s been the only time we’ve either played on or against them so far in 2019. Remember Chicago was winless at the time. Consider tonight the next in what could be a long line of fades, unless something really changes. Minnesota’s biggest problem so far has been on the goals allowed side of the ledger. But w/ Edmonton averaging so few shots, let’s call for Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk to step up tonight. 10* Minnesota

10* Washington (7:05 ET): Both of these teams have been winners for us recently. The Capitals beat the Rangers 5-2 on Friday while the Blackhawks downed Edmonton back on Monday. Washington has played a lot more games this year (9 vs. 5) than Chicago, which was the same thing as the most recent matchup against the Rangers. The Blackhawks have won B2B games since opening with three straight losses, but the Caps are better and get the job done Sunday. They are averaging 4.2 goals over the L5 games.

Washington has also won B2B games and they are getting contributions from a variety of players in the recent scoring barrage. John Carlson continues to lead the team w/ 17 points. T.J. Oshie scored twice against the Rangers, giving him six goals for the season. Of course, Alex Ovechkin is still skating as well. Between the pipes, Braden Holtby is 8-3 w/ a 2.88 GAA in 12 career starts vs. Chicago. The Caps are 48-26 when facing a team w/ a losing record.

Chicago will debut 18-year old prospect Kirby Dach tonight. That’s exciting and certainly makes the Blackhawks’ future seem promising. But they’ve still got to worry about winning in the present and that means beating a Capitals team that is just plain better right now. After opening the year in Prague, the ‘Hawks have exclusively played home games. Just don’t think they have the firepower to keep up here. Goalie Corey Crawford has lost 7 of his 10 career starts vs. Washington. The Blackhawks are 30-53 vs. .500 or better foes. 10* Washington

6* Washington (7:05 ET): In terms of workload, it's been two completely different starts to the season for these two Metropolitan Division teams. Wednesday's 4-3 win over Toronto was the Capitals' eighth game this season. Meanwhile, the Rangers have played only four games and that includes last night's 5-2 loss to previously winless New Jersey. But things are set to get a lot "busier" for the Blueshirts as they're about to play five games in eight days, including their first back to back tonight in the Nation's capital. No doubt as to who the stronger side is here and we can't say we're surprised at all to see the line get steamed up. 

Washington is 4-2-2 and has given up the same number of goals (26) that they have scored. So it's been a pretty mediocre start (by their standard). John Carlson, not Alex Ovechkin, leads the team in points (14). That's definitely not a bad thing and really not that big of a surprise either. Carlson had a career-best 70 pts last season. While it's been a pretty pedestrian start for the team, including a 1-1-2 record at home, the Caps should enter Friday's game w/ plenty of confidence seeing as they've defeated the Rangers six straight times, including a 4-0 sweep last season (three of the wins coming after regulation). They've also won 9 of the previous 10 head to head matchups. 

The Rangers have actually scored 1st in all four games this season. But after totaling 10 goals in the first two games (both wins), they've managed only three in the last two (both losses). A 4-1 win over Ottawa is the only game where they haven't surrendered at least four goals. That's a bad sign. So is the situation tonight. New York has lost 28 of the last 36 times they've had to play a game w/o rest. They are also 6-21 SU their L27 times coming off a loss by 3+ goals. They are 5-16 SU their L21 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. The trends, the situation and talent all favor one side here and that's who we're (obviously) going with. 6* Washington

8* Montreal (7:05 ET): The Wild are struggling mightily right now as they've opened 1-5 SU. The end of a three-game swing through Eastern Canada is probably NOT the time we'll see them "get right," even though this happens to be an opponent they have defeated NINE straight times. That nine-game losing streak is probably not lost on those in the Habs' locker room as they too are looking to bounce back from a loss. Hosting Tampa Bay, the Canadiens lost 3-1 Tuesday even though they had a 34-22 edge in shots on goal. This being their fourth consecutive home game, the spot is so much better for Montreal here and they're playing w/ some serious revenge to boot. 

For a team that's lost four of its first six games, the Canadiens have played better than you might think. They've only been outscored by two goals. Their first two losses both came past regulation and were on the road. Finishing this homestand w/ a .500 record would seem imperative as they'll hit the road twice this weekend, including a rematch in Minnesota. The goals allowed side of the ledger has been a bit of a problem so far for the Habs w/ them allowing at least three goals in every game. But here they'll be facing one of the league's lowest scoring teams (just 14 goals in six games). Only one time has the Wild scored more than twice in a game this year and they lost 7-4.

Other than their one win, which was 2-0 over an Ottawa team that is really bad, Minnesota has had major issues stopping their opponents from scoring. In five losses this year, they've allowed 25 goals. Not sure what HC Bruce Boudreau is doing sitting some of his key forwards in every game. What we do know is this Montreal losing streak to Minnesota dates back to December 2014. It's not like the Wild have been substantially better these last five years, so really the head to head streak makes little sense. Look for the Habs to snap in tonight. 8* Montreal 

9* Chicago (8:35 ET): We're looking at a couple of very different starts to the season here w/ the Oilers and Blackhawks. Edmonton is 5-0, one of three remaining unbeatens in the league (Buffalo, Colorado). That's not something we saw coming as the Oilers finished w/ just 78 and 79 pts respectively the L2 years, putting them near the bottom of the Western Conference. It seems like forever ago that this team had its breakout campaign (103 pts in 2016-17) as superstar Conor McDavid had almost been toiling in obscurity, wasting his best years on a non-contender. Maybe this year is going to be different? Regardless, we're fading Edmonton tonight in a must-win spot for the opponent. 

The Blackhawks are 0-2-1. They join New Jersey and Minnesota as the only three teams in the league yet to have tasted victory this season. The reason for Chicago having played only three games so far is that they opened the season in Prague (Czech Republic). They had a full five days off before they played again and obviously still haven't won. But all three losses have been by one goal, including an OT defeat at the hands of Winnipeg Saturday. Since losing 4-3 to the Flyers in Prague, it's been B2B losses here at home. The home opener against San Jose saw the Blackhawks blow a 1-goal advantage FOUR times before eventually losing 5-4. The overtime loss to the Jets was even worse as they wasted an early 2-0 lead, which included a short-handed goal. 

It speaks volumes that a winless team is favored to beat an undefeated one, even on home ice. Furthermore, we've seen the ML get steamed up. So Chicago definitely appears to be the "sharp" side in this Monday night matchup. Most bettors (rightfully) seem a bit wary of the Oilers at this point. One thing is for certain and that's they're not going to be able to maintain a 17.1 shooting percentage moving forward. Averaging 4.4 goals on just 25.8 shots per game is a real "Houdini act" if you know what we mean. Also, Edmonton has had to come from behind in all five wins! Both Chicago goaltenders have a good history when facing the Oilers. 9* Chicago

9* San Jose (10:05 ET): Terrible spot for Calgary tonight. It's not just the second game of a back to back (lost 6-2 in Vegas last night), but also their third road game in four nights. It's not been a great start for the club that had the most points in the Western Conference last year. Not surprised by that; they were expected to regress some. Because it's the second night of a B2B, the Flames have to go w/ a backup goalie for the first time this year. It's Cam Talbot, who signed a one-year deal in the offseason. The former Oilers' netminder wasn't particularly effective last year, turning in an .889 save percentage. He was 11-17-3 in 30 starts. 

San Jose started 0-4, but was able to notch two points w/ a 5-4 win over Chicago Thursday. Credit the return of Patrick Marleau, who had missed the first four game. Marleau, who is in his second tour of duty here in San Jose, scored twice. It was a rusty Blackhawks team the Sharks were facing Thursday as Chicago had not played since opening its season in Prague. Now its a very different situation for the opponent, who is playing w/o rest. Yet both situations are conducive to the Sharks winning. They are 6-2 the L8 times hosting Calgary and not all those games were a situation as good as this. 

This is only San Jose's second home game. The first was a loss to Vegas, something they can converse about w/ Calgary, who just lost to the Golden Knights last night. It was not a strong 60 minutes of hockey, which should be apparent from the final score of 6-2. It was the third time in five games that the Flames surrendered at least four goals. San Jose isn't as bad as it looked the first four games and having Marleau back is huge. 9* San Jose

8* Vancouver (10:05 ET): Two also-rans from the Pacific Division collide late Wednesday. Normally, we might just sit this one out, but the situation really works to Vancouver's favor. Los Angeles is playing its third straight game in Western Canada and is in the second night of a back to back. The Kings pulled off a huge upset last night, beating Calgary 4-3 as +210 ML underdogs. But they needed overtime to do so, making this tough situation all the more challenging. We just don't see the Kings being able to win again tonight. 

Vancouver is 0-2, so there's already a sense of desperation here. Like the Kings, the Canucks season began w/ two games in Alberta. They lost 3-2 to Edmonton and then were shutout 3-0 by Calgary. But unlike LA, the Canucks have had three days off since their last game. Disheartening for Vancouver is they outshot their first two opponents. Coming off a shutout loss, there are rumors that they may "tinker" w/ their top line tonight. Free agent signing Micheal Ferland was dropped to the third line on practice Tuesday. Usually, in the short term, these line changes provide a temporary boost. 

The Canucks won three of four meetings LY w/ the Kings. Let's not forget how bad the Kings were last season as they finished w/ the fewest points in the Western Conference. They came out unusually strong last night, outshooting Calgary 20-3 in the first period en route to eventually taking an early 3-0 lead. That held up, but we don't envision a similar performance tonight. Both goaltenders have save percentages below .900. The Kings lost the opener to Edmonton, giving up six goals. We're likely to see a performance more closely resembling that than what we saw last night. 10* Vancouver 

8* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): The Oilers are one of three teams in the Pacific to open 2-0, but both wins were of the one-goal variety, at home and against bad teams (Kings, Canucks). We see a much different result unfolding tonight as the hit the road for the first time. They travel cross-country to face the Islanders, who have yet to leave Uniondale this season. After dropping the opener (2-1 to the Capitals), they came back w/ a 4-1 win over Winnipeg on Sunday, a game in which the Isles never trailed and got 35 saves from goaltender Thomas Greiss. Look for them to get two more points Tuesday. 

Greiss had a career-year last season, turning in a 2.27 GAA. Last season's turnaround on the goals allowed side of the ledger was really stunning. Barry Trotz inherited a team that had given up the most goals EVER in an 82-game season the year prior. But in 2018-19, the Isles gave up the FEWEST goals in the league! They probably won't be that stingy again this season, but we like them to be up to the challenge tonight. While Edmonton did score six goals in its last game, they did so against a Kings team that has fallen on hard times. The Oilers are just 21-31 after scoring 4+ goals in their previous contest. 

While Edmonton is 2-0, both games saw late comebacks in which they scored twice in the final 10 minutes. Against the Kings, they overcame a one-goal deficit four separate times before getting the go-ahead goal late in regulation. That sounds like an unsustainable blueprint for success to us and it should be noted the Oilers have not started a season w/ three straight wins in 11 years. If you give up five goals to a team like the Islanders, you have virtually zero chance of winning. The better team is underpriced here. 8* NY Islanders

10* New Jersey (7:05 ET): The Devils are a very trendy choice to improve in the 2019-2020 season. They have a point projection of 91 points and are even money (-110) to make the playoffs according to oddsmakers. That may sound a "little rich" for a club that finished in last place w/ 72 points (2nd fewest in the East) last season. While we're not sure that we're "all in" on the Devils at this point (to reach the playoffs that is), they do find themselves in quite the advantageous spot to open their season. They are hosting Winnipeg, who lost a hard fought game last night to the Rangers. Good situational play on a team that's probably under the radar right now.

The Jets led the Rangers 4-3 last night after Kyle Connor struck w/ a power play goal early in the 3rd period. But from there, things all went downhill as they gave up three goals, the final one coming w/ a two man advantage in the final 20 seconds. It was a brutal loss, not just because they blew a lead on the road, but also because they outshot the Rangers 47-32 and had five power play opportunities. They converted just the one. Losing in the fashion they did (gave up game winner in final five minutes) and then turning around to play another road game the following night is a pretty brutal spot for any team. 

While the Jets did finish w/ 99 points last season, let's not forget that they had a terrible finish to the regular season and then were bounced in the first round by St. Louis. While the Blues did go on to win the Stanley Cup, remember it was Winnipeg that had the home ice advantage in that series, so it was considered an "upset" at the time. Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism w/ New Jersey is former MVP Taylor Hall's presence on the roster. But they also made several key additions in the offseason while Winnipeg lost some key pieces. 10* New Jersey 

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Surprisingly, Buffalo took two of the three head to head meetings w/ Pittsburgh last season. It's surprisingly because the Sabres finished w/ only 76 points, well out of playoff contention, while the Penguins were a solid playoff team that finished w/ 100 points. Now it did end up being a quick postseason exit for the Pens as they got swept by the Islanders. But that ending to the year should have them motivated as they are set to hit the ice for the first time in 2019. This should be an easy two points for the home team Thursday night.

The longest postseason drought in the league belongs to Buffalo, who has not made it in eight years. Our projections have them sitting out a ninth straight year. While they have Jack Eichel, the roster remains shallow and there's really nothing from the offseason to indicate any kind of significant improvement is on the horizon. Only two teams - Ottawa and New Jersey - had fewer road wins last year. They hired a 60-year old coach (Ralph Krueger) that has been out of the league for six years.

There was some concern over Sidney Crosby's status for the opener, but the Penguins superstar will be on the ice Thursday as his foot checked out just fine. He was hit by the puck in the final preseason game (which was against Buffalo). On the topic of "concern," we expect Evgeni Malkin to bounce back from a career-worst year in 2018-19 (just 21 points). The offseason swap of Kessel for Galchenyuk should end up being a net positive. Give us Matt Murray over Carter Hutton in the battle of goalies in this one. Hutton had a horrible 4-20 SU record in road starts last year for Buffalo. 8* Pittsburgh

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The previous two Stanley Cup Champions meet on Opening Night with the Blues hosting the Capitals. Whereas Washington took a more "traditional" (i.e. dominant) path to winning their Cup in '18, it's still hard to wrap your head around what the Blues pulled off last season. As late as January 2nd, they were dead LAST in the league in points. From that point forward, they went 30-10-5 to finish the regular season and then of course went on to hoist the franchise's 1st ever Stanley Cup. Repeating in this league is quite hard to do (just ask the Caps), but we feel there's value on St. Louis in the early going this year, particularly Wednesday night's opener. 

Obviously, there's going to be a lot of emotion in the building Wednesday night. Sometimes that can be a distraction. Other times, it can work to the defending champs (who always open the season w/ a home game) benefit. It was definitely the latter LY w/ the Caps, who obliterated Boston 7-0 on Opening Night. Not saying it'll be that one-sided for the Blues, but we do think they'll have the edge. They were 24-15-2 at home LY in the regular season, winning 20 of the last 29 games here at the Enterprise Center. We also happen to think they are one of the more undervalued defending champs in recent memory.

It is difficult to repeat as champs in this league as only three teams have pulled off the feat in the last 30 years. That and the path the Blues took to winning LY is what have them undervalued coming into the year. Keep in mind they largely bring back the same roster, plus Justin Faulk, who should be a boon to the power play. They also now get a full season of Jordan Binnington in goal. It was his emergence LY that keyed the turnaround. For Washington, Alex Ovechkin is listed as day to day. He's expected to play (returned to practice Tuesday), but it's worth noting he is battling a lower-body injury. The Capitals have lost the last six times they've been an underdog. 8* St. Louis

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The Blues were absolutely humiliated at home Saturday night, losing Game 3 by a score of 7-2. Rookie phenom Jordan Binnington got pulled (for the 1st time in his career)after allowing the first 5 goals and by that point (2nd period), the game was over. It was quite the embarrassing effort from St. Louis, which was hosting its first Stanley Cup Finals game in 49 years. But the good news is that it was just "one game." The Blues have generally been outstanding off a loss this postseason (5-1 SU) and I expect them to be in Game 4 as well.

I've yet to play either side in a game, thinking this series was pretty evenly matched. The better team won in both Games 1 & 2, IMO, as each time (Bruins in Gm 1 & Blues in Gm 2) the winning side enjoyed a rather decided edge in shots on goals. St. Louis even had a 2-0 lead in Game 1 before eventually wilting and getting outshot 38-20. Despite being dominated Saturday, they are in no way that bad nor that inferior compared to Boston. They even finished w/ a slight edge in shots on goal (29-24). This is a great value here on the Blues at home. Yes, they're just 5-6 SU at home in the playoffs, which is somewhat shocking, especially considering they ended the regular season on a 14-2 SU run at the Enterprise Center. 

When off a SU loss this postseason, the Blues have not allowed more than two goals in any of the six games. So a bounce back effort from Binnington in particular, should be in order. Remember that he led the league in goals against average (1.87) in the regular season. After HC Craig Berube complaining about the officiating, I'd look for the Blues to spend less time in the penalty box here. The Bruins going 4 for 4 w/ the man advantage was absolutely huge in Game 3. That will not be happening again. The Blues are 7-3 SU the L10 times they've been off a loss by 3+ goals. That includes a win at San Jose in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals, a very similar spot to this. 10* St. Louis

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The Blues turned in a completely dominant performance in Game 5, battering and blanking the Sharks, 5-0. Having followed them throughout the playoffs, this is a little reminiscent of the last round where they picked up a huge road win in Dallas (won 4-1) before getting to close the series out at home in Game 7. St. Louis has closed out both previous series here on home ice, so while they may actually have a losing record here at the Enterprise Center in the postseason, they've won when it matters most. That trend continues tonight as I'll call for them to close out San Jose and move onto their 1st Stanley Cup Finals since 1970 (never won).

The Game 5 loss was quite costly to the Sharks. Not only are they now down 3-2 in the series, but they are likely w/o three key players as their season is on the line tonight. Tomas Hertl and Joe Pavelski both suffered in-game injuries, the latter's coming on a big hit in the third period. Hertl was not only 2nd on the team in goals scored this postseason, but 3rd overall in the league. Then you have defenseman Erik Karlsson, who aggravated a groin injury that limited him in the regular season. Neither he nor Hertl played in the third period Sunday. All three injured players may miss tonight's game. Game 5 was a completely one-sided affair w/ the Blues outshooting the Sharks 40-21. 

Incredibly, the Blues were last in the league in points back on January 2nd. They are now one win away from their 1st SCF appearance in 49 years after making each of their first three years of existence (playoff rules were weird back then). While the Blues were the only team in the league to make the playoffs every year in the 1990's, they are also the oldest existing franchise never to win the Cup. So tonight's game definitely means a lot. I've written previously on how San Jose's scoring dips dramatically on the road. In the playoffs, they've scored just 18 goals in eight road games (been shut out twice). At home, they've scored 39 goals in 10 games. 10* St. Louis

9* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The curious case of the Blues losing at home in the postseason continued on Wednesday in the most excruciating way possible as they lost in overtime to the Sharks, 5-4. It was bad enough that the Blues gave up the game-tying goal w/ just over a minute left in regulation. But then in OT they were hosed by the officials, who missed a hand pass that set up the winning goals for San Jose. Now St. Louis did trail early, 3-1, before storming back to score three straight goals. But I don't see them falling into any kind of similar hole for Game 4. In fact, I think it will be quite the opposite as they come out as the hungrier and more motivated team.

The Blues are now just 3-5 SU on home ice in these playoffs, which I find it hard to wrap my head around. They ended the regular season on a 14-2 SU run here at the Enterprise Center. But I just can't see them losing again here, not w/ their season basically "hanging in the balance." Were they to fall down 3-1 in the series, which heads back to San Jose for Game 5, that would be big-time trouble. I talked about this in my Game 3 analysis, but the Sharks are not nearly as potent offensively on the road compared to at home (where they average 3.7 gpg for the year). Going into Game 3, San Jose was just 2-4 SU in playoff road games and had been outscored 21-12. 

So I was definitely surprised to see them strike early and often Wednesday night w/ three goals less than two minutes into the second period. In two of their four playoff losses on the road, the Sharks had been shutout. It was just the second time scoring more than three goals. Note that the first was Game 3 of the Colorado series and then they were shutout in the next game. Blues' goaltender Jordan Binnington led the league in GAA (1.89) in the regular season and bounces back here. 9* St. Louis

analysis soon

10* Carolina (8:05 ET): The Hurricanes find themselves down in an 0-2 hole in the Eastern Conference Finals, but it's not as if they haven't been here before. Back in Round 1, they dropped Games 1 and 2 at Washington before storming to take back that series in seven games. They came into the ECF having won 8 of 9 overall. They allowed just five total goals in sweeping the Islanders in the last round, so the fact they have allowed *11* in two games to the Bruins is definitely downright shocking. Throughout the playoffs, I've leaned on Carolina's Corsi For % (best in the league during the regular season) and I won't deviate from that script here. Take them in Gm 3.

I though the final score of Game 1 (5-2 Bruins) was pretty misleading. Carolina led going into the third period, but Boston scored four times in the final 20 minutes to take the 1-0 series lead. Two of those four goals came on the power play, just 28 seconds apart, and another was on an empty net. Game 2 was far more decisive w/ the Bruins scoring the game's first six goals (two per period) before the 'Canes struck for two late meaningless ones. The good news though is that Carolina is now back home where they have yet to taste defeat in these playoffs (5-0). They're also favored on the moneyline, another good sign here considering they are 23-5 the L28 times they've taken the ice as a ML fave.

Carolina had only 23 shots on goal in Game 2, which is a very low number for them. They led the league in the regular season w/ an average of 34.4 shots per game. In Game 1, they actually outshot Boston. To go back to Corsi For %, it is a measure of how much time a team possesses the puck relative to its opponents. The Hurricanes also led the league in this department during the regular season. Because of that, I very much bought into this club as a "darkhorse" coming into the playoffs. Again, I'm not about to "abandon ship" now. 10* Carolina

10* San Jose (9:05 ET): It wasn't until Game 5 of this series that I made a play on either side (did win w/ the Under in Game 4). I took San Jose, here at home, and they came through for me then as last week's top moneyline selection in NHL. I then called for them to close out the series in Game 6 Monday, but that proved to be a mistake as they lost in overtime, thus keeping alive the pattern that has seen the team alternate wins throughout the first six games. San Jose won a Game 7 in the first round, beating Vegas, and my view that the Sharks are the better team here hasn't changed. 

That previous Game 7 victory (over Vegas) was here at home and in my analysis for Game 5, I spoke of how important home ice advantage has been to the Sharks this season. The most obvious benefit has come in scoring as they average 3.7 goals per game at home. Now it was a low-scoring Game 5 (won 2-1), but the bottom line is that in seven home games this postseason, the Sharks have tallied 28 goals. Compare that to the six road games where they have managed only 12 goals (and been shutout twice). For the year, San Jose is 30-13-5 SU at home. Colorado has a losing road record (20-27 overall). 

Just like I have throughout the playoffs, I'll continue to cite Corsi For % as a key metric. It's a measure of how often a team controls the puck and in this regard, the Sharks are a far superior team to the Avs. They rank 3rd in the league in that metric while Colorado is only 17th, the only team remaining in the playoffs outside the top 10. The Avs are pretty fortunate to be 3-0 in overtime games this postseason. But I don't see them getting the job done here as they are averaging just 27 shots per game in the series. 10* San Jose

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The Blues were the hottest team in the league during the second half of the season. It was a remarkable turnaround for a team that actually had the fewest number of points (in the entire league!) on January 2nd. But, spurred on by a coaching change and a rookie goaltender, they've gone 31-15 SU the L46 games. The rookie goaltender (Jordan Binnington) led the league in goals against average (1.89) during the regular season. One thing that has surprised me though in these playoffs is that St. Louis has lost four times on home ice. But they closed out the Winnipeg series here at the Enterprise Center and now have a chance to do the same against Dallas here in Game 7 of Round 2. History will repeat itself here. Take the Blues. 

While they have lost four times here at home in the playoffs, the Blues have been proverbial road warriors, going 5-1 SU away from home. That includes a Game 6 victory in Dallas that kept them alive. They didn't just win Sunday afternoon either, they dominated. It was 4-1 final. What makes the home ice thing perplexing is that the Blues were a very good home team in the regular season, winning 14 of their last 16 times here heading into the playoffs. Dallas has managed to win 4 of 6 games on the road this postseason, including the last two here in the Gateway City, but they had a losing road record in the regular season and were outscored in the process. 

I continue to cite Corsi For % as a key metric this time of year. For those unaware, it is a measure of how long a team possesses the puck compared to its opponent. The Blues rank 9th in Corsi For % while the Stars are just 24th, which is the lowest among all remaining playoff teams. Then there is the matter of scoring. Dallas was only 28th in the league in goals per game during the regular season and only averaged 2.24 goals per game on the road, one of only three teams below 2.4 gpg. The Blues are 6-1 SU after scoring 2 goals or less their previous game. 10* St. Louis 

10* San Jose (10:05 ET): I'm calling for the Sharks to end this series and move on to the Western Conference Finals where they'll await the winner of tomorrow night's Game 7 between Dallas and St. Louis. The Sharks delivered for me in Game 5 at home, beating the Avs 2-1 in a come from behind effort. They are now 6-2 SU vs. Colorado this season. Neither team has been able to win consecutive games in this series yet, but that changes here as the better team asserts itself. Though they did give up the game's first goal on Saturday, San Jose really dominated, outshooting the Avalanche 39-22. 

In my Game 5 analysis, I cited home ice advantage as a key reason to play San Jose. Game 6 is in Denver, but Corsi For % is a metric I like to focus on and in this key area, San Jose still has the advantage over Colorado. Corsi for % is a measure of how much time a team possesses the puck compared to its opponent and San Jose comes in ranked 3rd in the league. If you are skeptical of the metric, be aware that it foretold Columbus' history-making upset over Tampa Bay in Round 1 and Carolina ranks #1 in the league and we see how well they are doing right now. For the record, Colorado is just 17th in Corsi For %, which is third worst among the eight conference semifinalists.

San Jose lost all 20 games it failed to score more than two goals in the regular season. But the good news for them is that here in the playoffs, they've already won two such games. They've done a good job defensively in the series, holding Colorado to an average of 2.4 goals and 27.4 shots per game. They've outshot them in four straight games. The really good news is that the Sharks have won four straight times after being held to two games or less the previous game. The Avs have actually lost five of the last seven times they've been a ML home favorite of -150 or less. 10* San Jose 

10* St. Louis (3:05 ET): I had the Blues as the better team coming into the series, but after losing Game 5 at home, they are facing elimination on Sunday, down 3 games to 2. Making the challenge even more difficult is the fact they now have to win Game 6 in Dallas. But winning on the road has not been a problem for the Blues this postseason as the took all three games in Winnipeg back in Round 1, then split w/ the Stars here in Games 3 and 4. I haven't given up faith yet and will take the Blues to stay alive.

I'll continue to cite Corsi For % as the basis for me thinking St. Louis is the better team here. In this key metric, the Blues rank 9th in the league, which is vastly superior to Dallas, who are just 24th. For those unfamiliar, Corsi For % is a measure of how often a team possesses the puck compared to its opponent. The Stars were also just 28th in the league in scoring during the regular season, so I'm surprised to see that they have scored 15 times in the five games vs. St. Louis. They were the lowest scoring team among all playoff entrants. Yes, the Stars were 2nd in the regular season in goals allowed, but the Blues weren't far behind at 5th. 

Over the second half of the season, St. Louis was arguably the hottest team in the league. So I don't think they're ready to bow out just yet. Even after losing Games 4 & 5, they are still 30-15 SU in their last 45 games. Rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington led the league in goals against average (1.89) during the regular season and was arguably the key reason the team was able to go from having the fewest # of points in the league on January 2nd to making the playoffs. The Blues are 6-1 the L7 times they've been priced as the underdog, so I'll take them again here. 10* St. Louis

10* San Jose (10:05 ET): Similar to the St. Louis-Dallas series, I view one of the teams (San Jose) as vastly superior in this series. But after mainly concentrating on the Under here (cashed it in Game 4), I'm finally ready to play on the Sharks. The series is now tied at two games apiece after the Avs won Game 4 by a score of 3-0. But if the regular season and playoffs have taught us anything, it's that we should expect more scoring from the Sharks here in San Jose. They average 3.7 goals per game on home ice and given they are still 5-2 this season vs. the Avs, I like them in this spot quite a bit. 

Corsi For % is a metric I like to focus on and in this key area, San Jose has the advantage over Colorado. Corsi for % is a measure of how much time a team possesses the puck compared to its opponent and San Jose comes in ranked 3rd in the league. If you are skeptical of the metric, be aware that it foretold Columbus' history-making upset over Tampa Bay in Round 1 and Carolina ranks #1 in the league and we see how well they are doing right now. For the record, Colorado is just 17th in Corsi For %, which is third worst among the eight conference semifinalists. 

Home ice advantage is also crucial here w/ the Sharks getting two of the next three (if necessary) games here in San Jose. While the Sharks are a strong home team, Colorado has a losing road record. Another key trend is that San Jose is 38-18 SU following a loss by 3+ goals. While they have scored just nine goals in five road games so far in the playoffs (shut out twice), the Sharks have scored 26 goals in the six home games. In goal, I feel Martin Jones has outplayed Philip Grubauer in this series. That's backed up by the former having a slightly higher save percentage. Sharks win this critical Game 5. 10* San Jose

10* St. Louis (9:35 ET): I came into this series believing that St. Louis was the better team. I had them in Game 3 - a wild 4-3 win at Dallas - that had them take a 2-1 series lead. But now things are tied up a two games apiece after Game 4, which was won by the Stars 4-2 on Wednesday. It may sound a little bit odd to think the Blues are definitely the better team here. After all, they have a losing record (3-5 SU) vs. Dallas this season. But I'll continue to cite their Corsi For %, which is vastly superior to Dallas. The Blues rank 9th in that key metric while the Stars are just 24th. 

St. Louis entered the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the Western Conference. Even after losing Game 4, they are still 30-14 SU in their last 44 games. Rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington led the league in goals against average (1.89) during the regular season and was arguably the key reason the team was able to go from having the fewest # of points in the league on January 2nd to making the playoffs. Binnington hasn't exactly been at his best the L3 games, but the Blues have still won 75% of the time (30-10) when he's between the pipes, including a 16-5 SU mark at home. 

Dallas ranked just 28th in the league in goals per game during the regular season, so I'm definitely surprised that they've been able to find the back of the net 11 times in the last three games. They were the lowest scoring team entering the playoffs. While #2 in goals allowed, the Blues weren't far behind at #5. The Stars are just 19-39 SU their L58 games as a ML road underdog of +150 or less. I think this is a good price to fade them in what shapes up as the key game of this series. The Blues have won four straight times after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. Seeing as I think they're the better team, I almost have to take them here. 10* St. Louis

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): After sitting out the first two games, I'll finally make the jump into this series. (I've played at least one game of each of the other three second round series). Spoiler alert: I like the Blues in this series, but wanted to sit back and wait for the best spot to grab them. That time appears to be now. While Game 3 is in Dallas and the Stars are 4-1 this year vs. the Blues, St. Louis still grades out as the better team in my eyes, especially in the key metric of Corsi For % where they rank a strong 9th overall. Dallas is only 24th, second worst among playoff teams (Islanders).

St. Louis certainly had no issue winning on the road in Round 1. They went 3-0 at Winnipeg, which is a tough place to play. The Jets were 25-12-4 SU at home in the regular season. Of course, the Blues have done plenty of winning over the last several months as they entered the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the Western Conference. Even after losing Game 2, they are still 29-13 SU in their last 42 games.

Whereas Dallas ranked 2nd in the league in goals allowed during the regular season, St. Louis wasn't far behind, tied for 5th. In the playoffs, the Blues have given up 22 goals in eight games. The Stars have given up just 17 in the same number of games. But despite this, I think it's still worth mentioning that Dallas was only 28th in goals per game in the regular season. So after allowing four goals in Game 2, expect Blues goalie Jordan Bennington to have a bounce back game here. He led the league in goals against average (GAA) at 1.89 and remember that him taking over between the pipes was a real catalyst for the total team turnaround. The Blues have won five straight as underdogs. 10* St. Louis

10* Carolina (7:08 ET): I'm going to be putting "my foot down" (so to speak) in this series as I firmly believe Carolina is the better team here. Yes, they come in off a grueling 7-game series w/ Washington while the Islanders had a shockingly easy go of it in the 1st round, sweeping Pittsburgh. But that same "situational disadvantage" had little impact on the Bruins last night, though they were skating at home. Still, I lean on the fact the Hurricanes lead the league in Corsi For %, while the Isles rank a poor 27th in that key metric. Just like they did vs. the Capitals, I expect Carolina to control the puck in this series. I'm calling for a Game 1 "upset." 

The Islanders' transformation under HC Barry Trotz (who led Washington to the Stanley Cup LY) has been stunning. Last year's team gave up the most goals in league history over an 82-game season. This year's team allowed the fewest number of goals in the entire league! Goalie Robin Lehner held the Penguins to just six goals in four games. But I expect puck possession to play a vital role in this series. The bottom line is that no team is better in that department than Carolina. Lehner is going to face more shots than usual in this series. Carolina led the league in both shots per game and shot differential in the regular season. 

While there is some concern about the Hurricanes being only 48 hrs removed from a Game 7 (on the road) that required double overtime, the old issue of "rust" may very well apply here to the Islanders. They haven't played in 10 days. The Isles are just 2-5 SU this season when taking the ice on 3+ days rest. Despite more than doubling up Pittsburgh in goals scored in Round 1, the Islanders were outshot in the series. That catches up with them in Round 2 in what is a bad matchup (for them). Carolina has now won 34 of its last 51 games. 10* Carolina

9* Carolina (7:35 ET): While there's been a very real home ice advantage so far in this series (home team is 6-0), I'm going to call for the road team to prevail here. Even though the teams have scored the same number of goals, my view is that Carolina has played better. They've outshot Washington 192-153, which is pretty substantial over a six-game sample size. 

I'm also going to again lean on the fact that the Canes are #1 in the league in Corsi For %, a key metric that actually foretold the Blue Jackets stunning 1st round upset of the Lightning. Carolina's defense has certainly frustrated the Capitals throughout the series and the 'Canes ability to get the puck on net has been a strength all season long. They were #1 in shots per game in the regular season as well as shot differential. 

An "X-factor" here is Carolina captain Justin Williams, who has an incredible history in Game 7's. He has 14 career points in Game 7's, an NHL record, with seven goals and seven assists. None of that has come w/ Carolina, but he brings not just Game 7 experience, but success, to the table. Washington goaltender Braden Holtby has a 3-4 SU career record in Game 7s. It would be easy to look at the home team being 6-0 in this series and go w/ the Caps, but my feeling is Carolina has been the better team and they steal Game 7. No repeat in the Nation's capital. 9* Carolina

10* Nashville (8:35 ET): It's not just shocking that the Predators dropped Game 5, it's how. For the second game in a row, they allowed five goals. This was the #3 team in goals allowed during the regular season. Game 5 saw them allow five goals on just 26 shots, the second straight shaky performance from goalie Pekka Rinne. The Preds are now in danger of being the third division champ to get bounced from these playoffs and fifth higher seed to lose. I don't see that happening though, at least not yet. I like the Preds at 'plus money' in Game 6. 

I admit that I took Nashville in Game 5. I believe them to be the better team here as they rank significantly higher than Dallas in Corsi For %. Simply put, they do a better job at possessing the puck. They've outshot the Stars in all but one game in the series. But the last two games have not gone well w/ them losing 5-1 and 5-3. In the case of Game 4, that could be chalked up to a Dallas' power play scoring three times in the first period. But there were no PP goals allowed in Game 5, yet the Stars were still able to put together a three goal period. 

Why will it be different this time around for Nashville? Well, for starters, Dallas was just 9-26 SU after scoring 5+ goals prior to the previous game. Remember that during the regular season the Stars ranked just 28th in the league in goals per game, easily the lowest among all 16 playoff teams. Thus it's been pretty shocking to see them score 10 times in the L2 games, especially against a team like Nashville. My read is that the Predators are the better team in this series. They still have time to prove that. 10* Nashville

10* St. Louis (7:05 ET): Enough is enough already! The road team has won all five games in this series, but what transpired in Game 5 may have set the stage for the home team to finally break through and thus end the series. Now it certainly looked as if Winnipeg was poised to win Game 5 at home. They took an early 2-0 lead (scored first goal just 12 seconds in) and carried that into the third period. But then the Blues stunned the Manitoba faithful by scoring three times in the final period, including the game-winner w/ just 15 seconds left in regulation. The series ends Saturday. 

My view was always that the Blues were the better team here. They have the higher Corsi For %, ranking 9th in the league in that key metric. (Winnipeg is 21st, third worst among playoff teams). For those unaware, Corsi For % is a measure of puck possession time. Obviously, the more a team controls the puck, the more likely they are to win the game. The Jets have allowed far too many shots on goals all season. In fact, in the regular season, they allowed an average of 33.7 shots per game. That's the most among the 16 playoff teams. (St. Louis allowed the 4th fewest at 28.6 per game). 

Another key coming into this series was play in the third period. Yes, that's obviously key in any game, but especially w/ these teams. In the regular season, Winnipeg had the lowest win percentage in games they led after two periods among the 16 playoff teams (.743) while St. Louis was 2nd worst in the entire league (.065) when trailing after two periods. The fact that the Blues have "stolen" two games (Gms 1, 5) in this series where they trailed entering the third period is huge and will end up being the difference. Also remember that the Jets are a sub-.500 team over the last two months. The Blues closed the regular season on a 24-6-4 SU tear and won 14 of their last 16 home games. The home team is "due" and the Blues close it out. 10* St. Louis

8* Nashville (3:05 ET): We're all even at two games apiece in this best of seven series, but the Predators still have the home ice advantage as two of the (if necessary) remaining three plays would be played at their rink. After dropping Game 1 here in Music City (3-2), the Preds were able to avoid what would have been a terrible 0-2 hole by taking Game 2 in overtime. In fact, the first three games of this series were all decided by one goal. But Game 4 was all Dallas as they scored four times in the first period en route to a comfortable 5-1 win. Now it's Nashville's time to respond. 

The Preds went 25-14-2 SU at home in the regular season, so home ice advantage does matter here. (Dallas is below .500 on the road this year). They see an uptick in shots, but more importantly is the decrease in goals allowed. Needless to say, we won't see anything resembling the first period the Stars put together in Game 4. Something key to note is that three of those four 1st period goals Dallas scored in Game 4 came via the power play. Before that, they were just 1 of 13 w/ the man advantage in this series. The Preds are 14-2 SU the L16 times they have been off a loss by 3+ goals. 

The Stars are not a prolific offensive team. In the regular season, they ranked 28th in the league in goals per game. That's easily the lowest ranking of all 16 playoff teams. In fact, the only other playoff team in the bottom 10 in scoring is the Islanders. Now both teams are quite stingy in the goals allowed department, each ranking in the top three in the league. But even though their power play is virtually non-existent, I've always felt the Preds' offensive edge would be the difference maker here. Also key is the fact they rank 7th in the league in Corsi For % while Dallas is just 24th. 8* Nashville 

7* Calgary (10:05 ET): Pardon the pun, but we're one game away from BOTH of the top seeds in the NHL playoffs going down in "flames." Tampa Bay is out after a historically great regular season (62 wins!) and now - out West - Calgary faces the same fate if they don't win their next three games. For Flames' fans, this feeling has to be all too familiar. The last three times Calgary has won a division title, they've gone out in the first round. Then again, this is their first time as the top seed in the Western Conference since the 1988-89 season, the last time they won the Stanley Cup. 

But history doesn't matter to the Flames right about now, only the present does. They're down 3-1 to an Avalanche team they went 3-0 against in the regular season. Perhaps I'm biased, but outside of Game 3 (where they lost 6-2), I feel that Calgary has been the better team in this series. Twice they've lost in overtime, including Game 4 where they blew a two goal lead. (Unfortunately, I was on them). Game 2 saw them minutes away from taking a commanding 2-0 series lead only to give up a game-tying goal late in regulation. The Flames could easily be the ones up 3-1 in this series. 

Now they are back home. If you recall, I had them in Game 1 when they won here by a score of 4-0. A big problem for the Flames in the two games in Colorado was that they gave up a TON of shots. The number was 108 to be exact w/ the Avs posting 50+ in both games. That makes a goaltenders life very difficult. Fortunately, now that they're back home, I expect Calgary's offense to pick back up. They had the highest goals per game average at home of any team in the league in the regular season. I don't see them losing this series on home ice. 7* Calgary

10* Calgary (10:05 ET): The top-seeded Flames were minutes away from taking a commanding 2-0 series lead over Colorado. Instead, they now find themselves trailing 2-1 in the best of seven series. Back in Game 2, they gave up a game-tying goal w/ just under three minutes left in regulation and then lost in OT. Then they got flat out embarrassed in Game 3, losing 6-2 in Denver as they fell behind 3-0 after one period. Remember what I said in my Game 1 analysis - "It's been exactly 20 years since the Flames entered the playoffs as a top seed. The last time it happened (1988-89), they won the Stanley Cup. Since that time, they've won only three division titles. In what they hope is not an ominous precedent, they were out in the first round of the playoffs each of those three years." 

But in taking the Flames in Game 1, I said that this year's team looked to be different. They won Game 1, 4-0, and I haven't done anything in the series since. I'm stepping back in for Game 4 as I see the clearly better team trailing in the series and likely to even things up. This group was #4 in the league in Corsi For % and #2 in goal differential. Consider that they were north of -200 on the money line for Game 2. Now they're having to play on the road, but getting them at essentially "even money" looks to be a real value here.

I spoke of Colorado's lack of depth previously. After their tremendous top line, there just isn't scoring much. In a move to address that concern, they called up rookie Cale Makar before Game 3. His impact was immediately felt w/ a goal scored in his first professional game. That said, I'm still a believer in Calgary. Only four times all season have they lost three or more games in a row. I consider the six goals allowed in Game 3 to be a total aberration considering they were #1 in the league during the regular season in goals allowed in road games. 10* Calgary

10* St. Louis (9:35 ET): The home team has yet to win a game in this series as the Blues took both games up in Manitoba while the Jets stayed viable in the series w/ a 6-3 win here in St. Louis in Game 3. Giving up six goals is NOT something we're accustomed to seeing w/ this Blues team that ranked in the top five in the league in goals allowed. I think we'll see the home side finally break through here in Game #4 Tuesday as they are still 14-3 their last 17 games here and have suffered just two losing streaks since the All-Star Break (which was at the end of January).

The Blues, as you may know, were a solid home team in the regular season. As I already pointed out, they've won 14 of their last 16 regular season games here at the Enterprise Center to finish 24-15-2. It's not like the Jets are a great road team either (23-18-1). Overall, the Blues were the much better team down the stretch as they went 24-6-4 their last 34 regular season games. Meanwhile, Winnipeg stumbled badly, playing sub-.500 hockey over the last two months. They haven't even won B2B games since a four-game streak from March 14th-20th. 

A key in determining how this series ends up is the third period (I know, what a shock!). Winnipeg had the lowest win percentage in games they led after two periods among the 16 playoff teams (.743) while St. Louis was 2nd worst in the entire league (.065) when trailing after two periods. The Blues thus really "stole one" in Game 1 when they came back to score twice in the final 20 minutes. They have the higher Corsi For % (key metric) this season, which means they typically control the puck more than Winnipeg does. The Jets were actually 21st in Corsi For % (3rd lowest among playoff teams) and give up 33.4 shots per game (highest among playoff teams). St. Louis is better and the home team is due to breakthrough in the series. 10* St. Louis

7* Pittsburgh (7:35 ET): Truthfully, I have not had the best record in this series, whiffing on every game thus far (0-3!). Twice, I've taken the Penguins to no avail and in Game 2 I lost w/ the Under. The fact the Pens currently trail the series 3-0 is downright shocking, at least to me, considering their own relative playoff resume and the inexperience of the Islanders. Plus, the Isles just scream "overachiver" to me, not just based on the fact they are last among playoff teams in Corsi For %, but also this stunning transformation that has taken place on the defensive end. It's probably too late for Pittsburgh to get back in the series, but certainly they can salvage a game on home ice. 

Pitttsburgh came in having won 9 of its last 10 playoff series (won Stanley Cup in 2016 and '17) while the Islanders have advanced past the first round of the playoffs just once since 1993. The Pens had not trailed 0-2 in any playoff series under HC Mike Sullivan until this one. But none of that matters now as the Islanders have led for all but four minutes of the last three games. That's pretty incredible when you think of all the offensive firepower that Pittsburgh possesses. But they've been held to just two goals in the last two games. On the bright side, they have not been beaten three straight times in regulation since November. I have to think there's some fight left. 

Somehow, the Pens have to find a way to solve Robin Lehner, who has a .951 save percentage in the series and a .931 save percentage for the season. Easier said than done, but it's doable. They did beat him three times in Game 1 (on 44 shots). Getting the power play going would also be huge. They are just 1 for 8 w/ the man advantage to this point in the series. I just don't think the Islanders can keep playing above their heads like this. 7* Pittsburgh

10* Carolina (7:05 ET): The Hurricanes first playoff appearance in a decade figures to be a short one if they don't win here. But down 0-2 to the Capitals, the Canes return home to Raleigh for Game 3 Monday to play in front of what figures to be a pretty raucous crowd. The team went 24-13-4 SU on home ice during the regular season. While Washington has had Carolina's number in this series, and all season for that matter, you have to remember there wasn't much of a difference in the standings (just 5 points) or in YTD goal differential (+26 vs. +22). I'm siding w/ the home team in this virtual "do or die" scenario.

Carolina was #1 in the league in Corsi For % during the regular season (54.9%). This means they were the best at controlling the puck, which is obviously vital to winning hockey games. Correspondingly, no team outshot its opponents on a per game basis by a wider margin. The Canes were #1 in the league w/ 34.4 shots per game and #3 in fewest shots allowed at 28.6 per game. In Game 1, they badly outshot the Capitals (29-18) while Game 2 was an overtime loss. Of course, none of the possession stats matter if they can't eventually outscore the Caps in a game. I think Monday is that time. 

This season has seen Carolina go 0-6 SU vs. Washington. The problem in the first two games of this series has been falling into early holes. The Hurricanes have been outscored 5-1 in the first period and that's pretty much put them "behind the 8-ball." But I'm thinking the home ice advantage for Game 3 is a "difference maker" as this is the first playoff game in Raleigh since 2009. These fans and this team didn't suffer through the longest postseason drought in the league to lose its first time at home. The Canes are 6-2 SU their last 8 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 while Washington is 6-13 SU its last 19 games as a playoff underdog. 10* Carolina

6* Pittsburgh (12:05 ET): The Penguins find themselves in an 0-2 series hole right now, but the series w/ the Islanders now shifts back home. After outshooting the Isles in Game 1 (44-33), shots were pretty much even for Game 2, but NY scored twice in the third period. Up until that point, it had been a pretty even series w/ Game 1 going to OT. I just can't see the Pens going down 0-3, so while we have to lay some juice to do so, playing the home team looks to be the smart play for Game 3. I still have some doubts about the Islanders' long-term viability.

The Islanders have been a somewhat remarkable story this season, their first under HC Barry Trotz, who led the Capitals to the Stanley Cup last season. Last year, the Isles set a record for most goals allowed in an 82-game season. This year, they allowed the fewest number of goals in the league. But they did so despite a 47.9 Corsi For percentage, which was not just the lowest among all playoff teams, but also sixth lowest in the entire league. When they take their act on the road, they are averaging just 27.5 shots per game, a very low number, so it's a wonder how they have a winning road record.

Pittsburgh obviously has its collective back against the wall here and I expect them to play accordingly. That means an aggressive style. Sidney Crosby has zero points in this series and just three shots on goal. This is the first time they've been down 0-2 in a series under HC Sullivan. Remember that this is a team that's won 9 out of its last 10 playoff series as they won the Stanley Cup in both 2016 & '17. Playing short-handed too often has really hurt the Penguins in this series so far, but I expect them to play "cleaner," more mistake-free hockey in what is easily their biggest game of the season. 6* Pittsburgh

10* Pittsburgh (7:35 ET): When it comes to teams without home ice advantage being favored to win in Round 1, the Penguins were probably the pick of most. But they dropped Game 1 here in New York, in overtime, by a score of 4-3. It was a game the Pens never led as every time they tied it up, the Islanders would re-take the lead. The pattern throughout the game was the Isles go up by a goal, then the Pens tie it up. Pittsburgh now faces the possibility of an 0-2 deficit, which is not overwhelming, but something they'd certainly hope to avoid. I'm coming back w/ them in Game 2. 

The Penguins did have the edge in shots on goal, 44-33, in Game 1. Getting off that many shots and scoring three times is actually an encouraging sign against a team like the Islanders, who were #1 in the league in goals allowed during the regular season. For whatever reasons, Pittsburgh has not fared well in close games this season, posting a .452 win percentage in one-goal affairs and they win only 59.6% of the team when scoring first. But I don't think any serious conclusions can be drawn after just one game. I still consider Pittsburgh to be the betting favorite for Game 2 (as do the oddsmakers). 

I think it is important to note what a surprise the Isles were this season. They went from giving up the most goals in an 82-game season in HISTORY to #1 in the league in goals allowed. That's a remarkable transformation under HC Barry Trotz. But no playoff team had a worse Corsi For percentage in the regular season (47.9) and that number was actually sixth worst in the entire league! Come playoff time, controlling the puck is critical. The Islanders got away w/ not doing so in Game 1, just like they have most of this year. But can it continue? My guess is "no." Only 47.7% of the Isles' even strength shifts start in the offensive zone, which is a bad number. 10* Pittsburgh

6* Calgary (10:05 ET): It's been exactly 20 years since the Flames entered the playoffs as a top seed. The last time it happened (1988-89), they won the Stanley Cup. Since that time, they've won only three division titles. In what they hope is not an ominous precident, they were out in the first round of the playoffs each of those three years. But this time should clearly be different. The Flames were pretty easily the best team in the West this season, outscoring opponents by 62 goals. No other team in the Conference had a goal differential better than +28. It should be an easy win for the home team here in Game 1.

Having the home ice advantage is pretty big for Calgary. They averaged 4.05 goals per game at home during the regular season. Consider that the Lightning had the highest goals per game average we've seen in the league in 20+ years and the Flames outscored them when it came to home games. (When they eventually have to go to Colorado, Calgary will be in good shape too. They were tied for fewest goals allowed on the road this season). Colorado is not a great road team as is evident by the fact they went 17-16-8 in the regular season.

The Flames won all three regular season meetings against the Avalanche, including one where they were outshot 35-16. Sure enough, the two games here in Calgary saw them score a total of 11 goals. The Avs did a nice job of getting here. While they may boast the top line in the sport, Mikko Rantanen has not played in a game since March 21st. Arguably, the Avs have the worst depth of any playoff team. After taking their foot "off the gas" a little bit down the stretch, the Flames will start this series w/ a big win in front of what should be a very fired up crowd. 6* Calgary

10* Washington (7:05 ET): Montreal is just trying to get into the playoffs as right now they are tied w/ Columbus (94 pts each) for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. The team holding the top WC spot, Carolina, has 95 pts. So obviously there's a lot of shuffling that can still take place after these next two games. The Habs definitely have a tall order in front of them though as they must play Washington tonight followed by a home game against Toronto. Then again, they did just beat Tampa Bay and Winnipeg, two other division leaders, so if the Habs were to make the playoffs, they'd have some confidence even as a Wild Card.

But this is a tough one as it's on the road. The Caps, unlike Tampa Bay Tuesday, still have something to play for. They're trying to lock down 1st place in the Metro, which they would do w/ a win tonight. Now they already blew a first opportunity to do so by losing at Florida Monday night. That loss snapped a four-game losing streak and was on the heels of their own win over the league-leading Lightning. It was also a third road game in five nights. The Caps certainly came out like a team that was fatigued, considering they fell behind 4-0 before a third period rally made it close. 

These teams haven't met since November when they split a pair of high-scoring games w/ the home team winning each time. Washington has lost only 10 times in regulation at home all season. Only three teams can say they've lost fewer. Meanwhile, Montreal remains a losing proposition on the road despite a 6-1-1 run overall. Something to keep in mind moving forward is that the Habs convert at a league-worst 12.5% on the power play. Montreal has been a nice surprise this season, but Washington is the better team here and is a good value on the ML. 10* Washington

7* Calgary (10:35 ET): The Flames have locked up not only the Pacific Division, but also the best record in the Western Conference. They will be a top seed for the 1st time since 1989 when they last won the Stanley Cup. Note they have won the Pacific three times since then and every time were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. Despite having little to play for in these final two regular season games, I like the Flames quite a bit here as they try and build more momentum for the playoffs and also reverse an "ugly" history here in Anaheim. The better team is being severely undervalued in this spot. 

Anaheim has had a terrible year. It actually started well w/ a 5-1-1 record the first seven games. They were even a respectable 19-11-5 at the 35-game mark. Since then, the bottom has dropped out w/ a 14-26-5 mark. Really, things have been even worse than that record indicates. Due in large part to having scored the fewest number of goals in the league (191 in 80 games), they have the second worst goal differential (-57), trailing only division mate Los Angeles. The Ducks are off a rare win, 5-1 over Edmonton, on Saturday. While they have been more competitive down the stretch, the bottom line is that they have won B2B games just two times since the All-Star Break. 

Calgary has lost 32 of its last 42 visits to The Pond, but for most of them, they were the inferior team. Not anymore. They last visited here back in November, which is before the Ducks tanked. Since then, the teams have met twice in Calgary w/ the Flames winning both times. The latest meeting just took place Friday and Calgary romped to a 6-1 victory. While the Flames might be the highest scoring team in the league at home, they are tied for giving up the fewest on the road. Also, they are still one of just nine teams averaging at least 3.0 gpg away from home. 7* Calgary

8* Columbus (7:05 ET): Playoff spots are starting to be filled in the Eastern Conference where five teams have now clinched. We know one of the spots will go to whomever finishes third in the Metro. Then comes the two Wild Cards. Currently fourth in the Metro, Columbus is finally playing like a team that wants to compete for the Stanley Cup. They are three points back of Pittsburgh for third place, but more pressing is that two teams (Carolina & Montreal) are within two points in the Wild Card. It's very likely Pittsburgh makes the playoffs, so that means among the other three (C-bus, Carolina, Montreal), one team is going to be the "odd man out." The Blue Jackets need this game badly. I'll take 'em. 

As I already mentioned, the Blue Jackets have won five straight. The win streak couldn't be more timely given what's at stake. But all its done (for now) is put them in the top Wild Card spot. This is a team far too talented to miss the playoffs, IMO. They've finally started to play up to their potential in these last five games, outscoring the opposition 24-4 w/ three shutouts. Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is playing exceptionally well of late w/ a .957 save percentage his L11 starts, stopping 309 of 323 shots. He leads the league w/ nine shutouts this year, the latest being a 38-save effort at Buffalo on Sunday. Four of those nine shutouts have come in his L7 starts! This is the time of year you want your goalie to be peaking and that's precisely what Columbus is getting right now.

Boston is playing like a team that's already wrapped up a playoff berth. Though they've yet to clinch it, it's exceedingly likely the Bruins will have home ice advantage in their first round playoff series w/ Toronto. The last two games have resulted in losses to non-playoff teams Florida (4-1) and Detroit (6-3). The Bruins are a subpar road team anyway (18-15-6) and the home team captured both meetings when these teams faced off twice last month. Considering the way Bobrovsky and the Jackets have been playing, I can't help but back them. 8* Columbus 

7* St. Louis (8:05 ET): This is a critical game. St. Louis has already clinched a playoff spot, but is thinking bigger right now as improbably they have a shot at still winning the Central Division. A win here would potentially place them into a three-way tie for first w/ Winnipeg and Nashville, who have been battling out all year (Winnipeg plays at Chicago tonight). The Blues, who have won five of six, have been as hot as any team in the league over the second half of the season. They are 21-6-3 the L30 games. They've lost just twice at home during that span. 

Colorado's future is more precarious right now. The Avs currently hold a one-point edge over Arizona for the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. If they end up not making the playoffs, a league high 13 losses past regulation may very well be the culprit. Lately though they have not done much losing. They are 6-0-1 the past seven games, including a home win over Arizona (in a shootout) on Friday. The fact they've done that w/ two of their best players - Gabe Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen - missing time is especially impressive. Goalie Philipp Grubauer has been out of his mind lately. 

Not sure Grubauer can keep it up though as maintaining a .957 save percentage from those L7 games seems unrealistic. If he's back between the pipes tonight, that would make it eight straight starts, which is very uncommon. St. Louis is 3-0 vs. Colorado this season. While two of the wins have been in OT, only one was here on home ice where they are 5-1 the L6x playing the Avs. The Blues have won 10 of the past 13 head to head matchups and they are the better team overall.  7* St. Louis

8* Carolina (7:05 ET): This is a very important game in the Metro and a potential first round playoff preview to boot. Washington currently leads the division w/ 98 points, but both Pittsburgh and the Islanders are hot on their heels w/ 95 apiece. Carolina is just trying to make sure they get into the playoffs as their 91 points have them in the top Wild Card spot. Barring any kind of huge finish to the regular season, the 'Canes likely best case scenario is the WC, but they best be wary as Columbus and Montreal are both close behind and only two of those three can make the playoffs. 

So now that the stage is set, who is going to come through? If this ends up being a 1st round playoff matchup, then Carolina has already gotten a taste of what they're up against. They just lost 4-1 in the Nation's Capital on Tuesday and are 0-3 against the Caps this season. But it's them w/ the home ice advantage tonight, something they've had only once in the three prior matchups. That game, which took place all the way back in December, went to a shootout (6-5 loss). But over the past 2.5 months, the Hurricanes have been one of the highest scoring teams in the league. They almost always do a great job of getting a lot of shots on goal as they lead the league in that statistic. 

Washington is only 3-2-1 its last six games. The difference against Carolina Tuesday was three third period goals, which broke open a game that had been even up until that point. Despite that result, Carolina has actually been the better team in the second half, winning 26 of its last 38 games while the Capitals are just 21-18 in their L39. The Caps have a losing record this year when coming off a game where they score four or more goals. Carolina needs this game badly and a strong finish to the regular season. I believe they'll be the more motivated side tonight and I'll take 'em. 8* Carolina 

10* Toronto (7:05 ET): Philadelphia is still technically alive in the playoff hunt, but things aren't looking so good w/ a 10-point deficit to make up w/ just six games to play. A loss here would all but officially eliminate them from contention. While there was a time that the Flyers were the hottest team in the league (won 8 straight around the All-Star Break), that time has since past w/ the club going just 4-6 its L10 games, including three straight losses here at home and B2B losses overall. Sunday's 3-1 loss at Washington all but put the final nail in their coffin.

Toronto comes in still hopeful that it can wrest away second place in the Atlantic and thus home ice advantage for what has been inevitable first round playoff series against Boston. Led by the first 4-goal effort of John Tavares' career, the Maple Leafs won 7-5 over Florida on Monday. Now they'll look to make it B2B wins for the first time since the beginning of the month. While they may only be third in their own division, I have the Leafs rated very high in my overall power rankings (4th overall!), so pay little mind to their designation within the Atlantic. They've outscored the opposition by 43 goals this year.

While both this game and the next one (at Ottawa) are on the road, this should be an easy upcoming four points for Toronto. Note they did already beat the Flyers this month, albeit at home, and it was another game where they scored seven goals. They gave up six, but I don't see Philadelphia capable of a similar effort here considering they've scored just nine goals in the five games since. The Leafs are 23-7 their L30 games as a ML favorite of -110 to -150, including 12-3 on the road. They are also 19-7 their L26 after scoring 5+ goals the last game. 10* Toronto

7* Arizona (1:05 ET): Both teams enter this Saturday matinee on three-game losing streaks. But that's where the similarities end. Perhaps the biggest difference between Arizona and New Jersey is the fact the former is fighting for a playoff spot while the latter has LONG been out of contention and officially eliminated. With Minnesota winning last night, the Coyotes are one point out of the Wild Card. So they need this game - badly. Look for them to get the two points as they're 10-4 the last 14 games vs. teams w/ a sub-.500 record.

New Jersey is quite bad. They've spent much of this season in last in the Metro and they have the fourth fewest points in the league. Their three game losing streak has seen them get outscored 12-2 and generally be not competitive. The Devils rank 29th in the league in goals allowed and I wouldn't look for them to get much offense against a Coyotes club that ranks in the top 10 in goals allowed. They managed just 22 shots on goal in a 5-1 loss to Boston Thursday night. That was their 5th consecutive home loss, a streak which dates back to last month. 

Arizona has already dropped two games to non-playoff teams recently, so another one would be borderline unacceptable. They were beaten 4-2 at Florida Thursday, even though they finished w/ a 34-22 edge in shots. Note the 'Yotes were ML dogs in each of their last two losses. They are 5-1 L6 when priced between -151 and -200 on the ML. They are priced appropriately in this one and I'll grab 'em. 7* Arizona 

6* San Jose (10:35 ET): Normally, I wouldn't want to lay this much juice, but I'll make an exception here for the Sharks, who should absolutely roll tonight in LA. Much like when I took Winnipeg earlier this week, beating the Kings is a must here for the Sharks. The Jets are locked in a tight battle w/ Nashville for 1st in the Central, so they "had to have" the two points against arguably the worst team in the league Monday. They got the job done (did take OT) and so should San Jose, who finds itself locked into a tight battle w/ Calgary for the top spot in the Pacific. Again, they need these two points and the sorry Kings should be happy to oblige.

San Jose has not helped itself recently by losing three straight games. This followed a six-game win streak. So off three straight defeats, the Kings are the exact team the Sharks needed to face right now. A real positive is that San Jose is already 3-1 SU this season when off three or more straight losses. The most shocking thing about the current losing skid is that all three losses came at home and that they allowed 15 goals. Monday saw them get destroyed by Vegas, 7-3, so the team should be eager to hit the ice here. 

The Kings have also lost their last three games. But the big difference between them and the Sharks is the amount of losing that preceded these matching streaks. Los Angeles has won only twice in its last 18 games overall and has the worst goal differential in the sport at -60. They have scored the fewest goals in the league, which is always a problem, but especially tonight against a team like San Jose that ranks 2nd in the league in goals per game. The Sharks have won five of their previous six visits to Staples Center and should win in a rout tonight. This matchup is appropriately priced. 6* San Jose

7* Vancouver (10:05 ET): Anytime you can go against Ottawa at this price, it's worth the shot. The Senators are wrapping up a truly miserable season, one which may end w/ them having the fewest points in the entire league. Right now, they own that distinction w/ 56, which is two back of the Kings. Given how Ottawa has played this year, the Kings are the only team they might finish ahead of. The Sens' play on the road has been truly horrific w/ them going 9-25-2 SU and giving up 4.3 goals per game (league high). They also allow a league high in shots per game at 36.0.

Vancouver still has a slim shot at making the playoffs, believe it or not, even though they are below .500 on the year. Truthfully, their league-leading 10 losses beyond regulation are what will be their undoing. But they are still only six points back of the Wild Card after winning two straight. Both wins came on the road, against Dallas and Chicago (whom they're competing w/ for a WC), by identical 3-2 scores. The Canucks had really been struggling before those two wins and admittedly, win streaks of three or more games have been few and far between this season. They've had three all year and all three were before Christmas. 

But this is as favorable a spot as Vancouver will face all season w/ the worst team in the league (points wise) making its lone visit to British Columbia. I really cannot stress just how bad the Senators have been on the road this season. They're being outscored by 1.5 goals per game. Only four other teams are even being outscored by a full goal per game. I should also mention that in a real rarity - Ottawa is also off B2B wins here as they beat St. Louis 2-0 and Toronto 6-2. But both wins were at home. Something has to give here and I believe Vancouver is in much better position to continue its win streak. 7* Vancouver 

7* Winnipeg (10:35 ET): We're down to the home stretch in the NHL regular season. Being that they've been locked into a tight battle for 1st place in the Central (w/ Nashville) all season long, the Jets certainly don't want to blow it now. They've got two games in hand as well, which is probably even more important right now than being one point ahead of the Predators. It's an advantage they don't want to waste away and fortunately for Winnipeg is they draw the lowly Kings tonight. Even w/ the game in LA, the opponent should be all-too accomodating for an easy two points.

While they may not have the fewest points (Ottawa does), I have the Kings ranked as the worst team in the league this season. They have a league-worst -59 goal differential, a metric which is far more important than the number of points a team has. Granted, LA doesn't have many points (58) and is buried at the bottom of the Pacific. They've scored the fewest number of goals in the league and that's a problem against anyone, let alone the 6th highest scoring team in the league (Winnipeg). The Kings have won only two of their last 17 games overall.

Winnipeg just beat two very good teams, Boston and Calgary, at home. While not quite as strong on the road as they are on home ice, the Jets have the edge in every statistical category in this matchup w/ the Kings. They just went 5-3 SU in an eight-game stretch against all likely playoff teams. Meanwhile, LA has lost 12 of 13 to teams that have winning records. A real key here could be Winnipeg's 4th ranked power play going against LA's 29th ranked penalty killing unit. The Jets are a far better team even at even strength, if they get a man advantage this one could turn ugly in a hurry. 7* Winnipeg

6* Toronto (7:05 ET): This is a virtual "must-win" for the Maple Leafs after their miserable showing (here at home!) against Chicago Wednesday. It was actually the Leafs' second straight home defeat. The first, a 6-2 loss at the hands of Tampa Bay, was pretty embarrassing. But, even though the final score ended up being 5-4, the loss to the Blackhawks was probably worse. The Leafs trailed 5-0 midway through the second period (4-0 after 1st period!) and didn't pull within a goal until little more than a minute was left in regulation. This was a game where they closed -240 on the money line! 

Toronto has been a money loser of late as two of their last three losses have come in games where they were north of -200 on the ML. This obviously does not help in their battle w/ Boston for 2nd place in the Atlantic and the home ice advantage that would come w/ that for what seems like an inevitable 1st round playoff series. Yet, despite the recent slide, Toronto still ranks 3rd in the league in goal differential (+46) and had been 2nd before suffering the B2B losses. On a positive note, the Leafs are 16-5 SU this season after giving up 4+ goals in the previous game. I think the late comeback attempt vs. Chicago will have a carryover-type effect here. 

Philadelphia is playing in the second night of a back to back, which also helps Toronto. This season has seen the Flyers get outscored 41-29 in the 2nd game of a B2B. They lost last night, 5-2 at home to Washington, leaving them five points out of playoff position. When both end up missing the playoffs, maybe the Flyers and Sabres can get together and have a discussion on meaningless win streaks. Subtract Philly's eight-game win streak from 1/14 to 2/4 and you have a team w/ a YTD record of 26-28-8. The only previous meeting between these teams this season resulted in a 6-0 Toronto win. The Leafs are significantly better than the Flyers and get the two points. 6* Toronto

6* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Penguins recorded a very important 5-3 win in their last game, beating the 1st place team in the Metro (Washington). I won w/ the Over in that contest, but was not the least bit surprised to see the Pens get the two points. After all, they came into the game sporting a better YTD point differential than the Caps. Tonight's opponent (Buffalo) is one that has been struggling for awhile now. The Sabres have lost five in a row, 11 of 13, and they've been shutout in each of the last two games. Really, when you subtract that 10-game win streak back in November, this season has been an utter failure in upstate New York. Without the win streak, the team's won-loss record on the season dips to 20-30-9, a win percentage of roughly .333. 

Though beating Washington was huge, Pittsburgh cannot afford to rest on their laurels. They are now top three in the Metro, but they're just four points away from being out of the playoffs entirely. I don't see the Penguins missing the playoffs. They've turned it on of late, winning five of six. The lone loss came in the second game of a home and home w/ Columbus. Adding to the motivation here is the fact it's a double revenge spot. Two weeks ago, the Pens lost here in Buffalo by a score of 4-3. They also lost to them 5-4 at home back in November. The loss earlier this month was an OT game where the Sabres were able to tie things up late in the third period. Pittsburgh had a 44-30 edge in shots. 

Buffalo figured to be "up against it" in this one anyway, but compounding matters is the fact Jack Eichel (their best player) is suspended. Eichel was dinged for two games due to a hit to the head in Saturday's loss to Colorado. The team's first game w/o its leading scorer did not go well as they were blanked 2-0 by the Stars. Note both Sabres wins this season against the Pens required extra time. They won't be so lucky tonight in a spot that screams "blowout" for Pittsburgh. 6* Pittsburgh

7* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): There's little on the line tonight at MSG with both the Devils and Rangers essentially out of playoff contention. But there is a pride factor at play as the Devils have lost five straight and the Rangers have lost six straight. Normally, I might just choose to skip this one altogether, but it's the second night of a back to back for the road team (New Jersey) and that presents an edge for NY. The Devils were shutout last night (3-0 by Washington), the second time that's happened to them in the last three games. They've scored a total of five goals during the five-game losing skid. 

While the Devils have earned just a single point in their five-game skid (lost to Columbus in a shootout), the Rangers have actually picked up four points in their losing streak. Losing four times in OT/shootout is pretty unlucky, even for a bad team like the Rangers. But the good news here is that they've had NJ's number this year, beating them in both prior head to head matchups. They've scored a total of nine goals in the two wins. This is the Rangers' longest losing streak of the entire season. Note the Devils started the year 4-0 and have lost more than two-thirds of their games since.

While a six-game losing streak is bad, the Rangers have played their opponents tough. They've also had to take on a challenging set of opponents. Three of the games came against division leaders Tampa Bay and Washington. One of the two regulation losses was 1-0 at Dallas. Fortunately for the Rangers, they are catching the Devils in an ideal spot. Not only is NJ just 3-8 SU in the second game of a back to back this year, they are an ugly 8-22-3 SU on the road while getting outscored by almost a full goal and a half per game. With a brutal four-game road trip upcoming (three of those games in Western Canada), expect the Rangers to give everything they have to win this game. 7* NY Rangers

10* Carolina (7:35 ET): The Hurricanes currently occupy one of the two "Wild Card" spots in the Eastern Conference, but they're margin for error is almost non-existent w/ Columbus (who lost last night) just two points back. The 'Canes are definitely one of the hotter teams in the East right now as they are 8-1-1 the L10 games, but they did just lose to the even hotter Bruins (9-0-1 L10) in overtime Tuesday night. Plus, the fact that the top three teams in the Metro are all on win streaks hasn't helped Carolina's cause either. They REALLY need a win here and I think they get it.

Winnipeg's future seems a lot more secure than Carolina's right now. All season long, the Jets have been battling the Predators for the top spot in the Central. They enter tonight one point out of first place. But it's not been a great stretch by any means for the contingent from Manitoba as they've lost six of their last nine games, including a humbling 5-2 setback at Tampa Bay on Tuesday. This club is nowhere near as dominant on the road (17-15 SU) as it is at home (22-8-4). Tonight is the third game of a four-game trip, which ends in Washington on Sunday. The Jets have been giving up a lot of shots lately, which could prove problematic against a team like Carolina.  

The Hurricanes have earned at least a point in 23 of their last 29 games, including six straight. Before this streak began, there were some key metrics pointing in their favor. No team in the league enjoys a greater advantage in shots on goal as the Canes are +6.6 in shots compared to their opponents on a per game basis. At home, that edge balloons to +7.9. Ironically, they've been scoring more on fewer shot attempts lately. Against Boston, they blew a two-goal lead, so that's a game they probably should have won. The biggest difference for Carolina between this year and past seasons has been the goaltending, which has been much better since the resurgence. 10* Carolina

9* Dallas (8:35 ET): Given the current state of the Wild Card race in the NHL's Western Conference, this game should have a real "serious tone" to it. Dallas, by virtue of three consecutive victories, is in the position that Colorado wishes it was in. That being, holding one of the two WC spot. The Stars' 73 points have them in the top WC position while Minnesota (72 pts) would be the other WC. The Avs (70 pts) are on the outside looking in. In some respects, the Avs are a stronger team than the Stars. But they lack depth and are playing this one on the road. Dallas has double revenge and I think gets the job done tonight. 

Home ice is big here for Dallas, who is 20-10-2 SU at American Airlines Center. I think it's important to note though that two of the last three wins have come on the road, one against St. Louis. Following that impressive performance (won 4-1), they returned home and shutout the Rangers, 1-0. The Stars' defensive transformation (which started LY) has carried over into 2019 as the club now ranks 3rd in the league in goals allowed per game at 2.58. Coming off a shutout win, the team's record is 4-2 SU this season. While the Stars do often struggle to score, they have scored four goals in three of their last five games. 

Now Dallas is 0-2 vs. the Avalanche this season, but both games were played in Denver. Both were also played before the start of the new year (2019) when the Avs were looking a lot stronger. Since they last beat the Stars (on 12.15), the Avs have gone 11-17-6 SU overall. They did just win Tuesday, 4-2, but that was at home against a bad Detroit team. Off a game where it scored 4+ goals, Colorado is just 9-18 SU this season. Yes, they have the tremendous top line of MacKinnon-Landeskog-Rantanen. But beyond that, there just isn't much to like here. Dallas is one of the best defensive teams in the league and should keep that line in check. 9* Dallas

6* Columbus (7:05 ET): This is a battle between one of the five teams in the Metro battling for a playoff spot and the team that has spent the majority of the year in last place in the division. Columbus has fallen into fifth place and right now would NOT be a Wild Card team as they trail both the Pens and the Canadiens (over in the Atlantic) by two points. Thus a win tonight is paramount. As you can tell by the ML, winning tonight shouldn't be too hard. The Devils have not only lost three straight overall, they have lost each of the last five times hosting the Blue Jackets. 

Now C-bus comes into this game off B2B losses as well. They weren't exactly competitive in either loss, losing 4-0 to Edmonton and 5-2 to Winnipeg. Both of those games were on home ice too! But the Blue Jackets have been a surprisingly good road team this year w/ a 19-10-1 record away from home. Only three teams in the entire league have better win percentages away from home - Tampa Bay, Toronto and Calgary. One could make the case that those are the three best teams in the league. Note that Columbus has had only one losing streak of three or more games all season. 

New Jersey has had plenty of losing streaks this season and the current one has seen them tally only four goals in three games. They got shutout in Boston Saturday, losing 1-0, while being held to only 20 shots. There just aren't a whole lot of positives to report w/ this club right now and they haven't fared well against the Blue Jackets in three meetings this season, losing all of them by a combined score 9-2. Two were in Ohio, but as mentioned before, they've dropped five in a row when hosting the Blue Jackets. They've dropped 9 of the previous 11 meetings overall. 6* Columbus

8* Washington (12:35 ET): The Capitals enter the day in a first place tie w/ the Islanders for first place in the Metro. The Isles will play later in the afternoon (host Philly), so getting two points here is a necessity for the team from the Nation's Capital. The Metro has developed into quite the tight race, but the Caps have definitely stepped up recently w/ three consecutive wins. The latest was against the Islanders (at home) Friday and the first of the three was against today's opponent, New York's "other team." The Rangers have lost three in a row in what continues to be a lost season for them.

In their three straight losses, NY has given up 14 goals. This is not a good team nor was it expected to be coming into what was generally regarded as a "rebuilding" season. The irony is things could be even worse were it not for a league-leading six shootout victories. But a little further irony here is that extra time has not been kind to the Blueshirts when facing Washington. They have not beaten the Capitals since December of 2017, losing five straight times to their division rivals w/ three of those defeats coming in OT. Overall, they are 0-6-1 vs. the Capitals in the last seven meetings. 

Alex Ovechkin's eight-game point streak is what's grabbing the headlines in D.C., but really the Caps are getting contributions from just about everyone. Their last 16 goals have come from 11 different players. Overall, the team is 10-4-1 its L15 games as it seems to have fully recovered from a seven-game skid in late January. They are the sixth highest scoring team in the league right now. They tallied six goals in the OT win over the Rangers exactly one week ago and quite frankly the Rangers were lucky to earn a point as they trailed by two goals in the third period and didn't get the equalizer until the final minute of regulation. 8* Washington

9* Columbus (7:05 ET): While the top three in Atlantic (Tampa Bay-Toronto-Boston) appear pretty much set, the playoff picture over in the Metro is a lot murkier. Five teams are separated by just seven points and three are within one point of each other w/ the possibility of one of the three getting left out of the playoffs due to Montreal's viability for the Wild Card over in the Atlantic. Two of the three teams fighting to get in the top three in the Metro meet tonight in Columbus. This is a very big game w/ Pittsburgh coming to town and I'm siding w/ the home team due to both recent form and the revenge factor.

The Blue Jackets do currently hold the third place position in the Metro, but both the Penguins and Hurricanes are just a point behind. The Jackets' last two games have gone extraordinarily well as they shut out both Ottawa and San Jose, winning by a combined 7-0 margin. This was a busy team at the trade deadline and it's feeling pretty good about itself. They do have some poor history vs. the Penguins to overcome here, however. They've lost 11 of the last 14 meetings w/ the Pens, including five straight losses. Only one of those games was played this season, however, and it was in Pittsburgh. With this being the first of three head to head meetings in the next 12 days, it's imperative that Columbus strikes first. 

Pittsburgh was also a busy team at the trade deadline, but their moves were almost out of necessity as they are quite thin along the blue line. It's shown the last two games, both of which have been losses. First they were shutout (at home) by the same San Jose team that the Blue Jackets just shutout. Then they blew a two-goal lead late in the third period Saturday and lost in overtime to Philly, outdoors. The real key here may be the recent form of Blue Jackets' goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, who has a .958 save percentage his L4 starts, which includes the two aforementioned shutouts. 9* Columbus 

8* Colorado (9:05 ET): What a turnaround we've seen recently by the Avalanche. After an absolutely horrible two-month stretch which saw the team lose 19 out of 23 games, the Avs have now won four in a row, two by shutout. That has them fifth in the Central and back in position for the final Wild Card spot. A win tonight would tie them w/ Dallas for fourth in the division. At home, against a poor Florida club, I think the Avs get the two points. The Panthers are in off an easy 6-1 win over a bad Kings team, thus they could be coming in a bit overconfident. 

The Avalanche are of course led by their incredible top line of Landeskog-Rantanen-MacKinnon. It's as good a line as you'll find anywhere in this league, but depth is a concern in Denver and that's what cost them. That said, the Avs have managed to score 17 goals in the last three games alone, which is enough to beat anybody. Especially considering the way goaltender Semyon Varlamov has played recently. Varlamov was NOT between the pipes for the team's 5-0 blanking of Nashville Saturday night, but he does own a ridiculous .958 save percentage his L4 starts. Varlamov has been just as big a reason for the turnaround as has the top line.

Florida has played better of late, not only dominating the Kings on Saturday, but also winning four of their last five. They too have had the "scoring touch," averaging 4.2 goals in those five games. But note all five of those games took place on home ice. This will be just the second time the Panthers have played a road game in the month of February. Goaltending also remains a concern as they rank 27th in the league in goals allowed. Back in December, they lost to Colorado by a score of 5-2. A similar result is likely in store for them tonight. 8* Colorado

8* Vegas (10:05 ET): Two teams that are reeling face off tonight in Las Vegas w/ the Golden Knights looking to rebound from a shootout loss to the Bruins and the Jets desperate to end a three-game slide. That loss to the Bruins occurred here at home, which was actually the fourth time in five tries that the Golden Knights have tasted defeat at their own rink. We're certainly unaccustomed to seeing that as dating back to last season, the franchise's first in existence, they have established one of the strongest home ice advantages in the entire league. 

Winnipeg may be in more dire straits as they've lost three in a row, including two blowouts at the hands of Colorado. It's not like the Avalanche have been playing well either; before sweeping the home and home w/ the Jets, the Avs had dropped EIGHT in a row! In between the two losses to the Avs, the Jets lost a game to lowly Ottawa, at home. Winnipeg has now dropped six of eight overall and that includes two losses to Ottawa. In their last five losses, the Jets have given up 25 goals. This isn't what I expect from one of the top teams in the Western Conference, but it's also the facts. Another fact is they've never won here in Vegas in three tries. 

This is just the second time this season that Winnipeg has lost three in a row. They won the previous time in this spot, which was at Buffalo 12 days ago. I don't see it happening here though as Vegas is a place they've never won at and the Golden Knights don't lose here very often, period. The Jets have been outscored on the road this season while Vegas only allows 2.5 goals per game at home, which is one of the better averages in the league. Something has to give tonight as either Winnipeg will avoid a season high in losses or Vegas will lose for the 7th time in their last 8 home games. The latter just seems less likely to me. 8* Vegas

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): This is a really big game for the Maple Leafs, who have fallen into third place in the Atlantic. Look for it to be a battle w/ Boston the rest of the way for 2nd place, which is of course key considering whomever finishes 2nd will have home ice advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs. The task ahead of the Leafs was made a little tougher last night when Boston won in Vegas. They now trail the red-hot Bruins (who are 9-0-1 L10 games) by four points. That makes tonight a virtual "must win." Coming off B2B losses, I think they get the job done. 

Over in the Metro, Washington finds itself also jockeying for playoff positioning. Unlike Toronto, finishing first in the division is still in play for the Caps. They enter the day three points behind the first place Islanders, but this is a somewhat challenging spot from a scheduling perspective. The team is playing its fifth straight road game and the last three all came out on the West Coast. Granted, they've had two days off, but that scenario finds them at only 4-4 SU for the year. Toronto just wrapped up its own long road trip (six games) and will be quite happy to be back on home ice.

This is the third meeting of the season between the two clubs. Toronto has taken the first two, rather convincingly, 4-2 and 6-3. While both teams are in the top 10 in scoring, the Maple Leafs look to have a substantial edge defensively. Washington is in the bottom third in goals allowed (22nd ) while Toronto is a solid 9th. Not many teams in this league rank in the top 10 in both goals scored and allowed. There was no shame in their last loss as it came against the hottest team in the league (St. Louis) and they still earned a point. The Capitals have posted B2B wins only one time over the last month and that came in a pair of home games, both of which were against lesser opponents. 8* Toronto

10* Vegas (10:05 ET): The Golden Knights' extraordinary home ice advantage will be tested this evening by a Bruins team that's riding a six-game win streak. While not quite as strong as they were here last year, Vegas is still 17-9-3 SU here in Sin City and this looks like a bad spot for Boston considering it will be their fourth straight road game in a six-day span. The Bruins admittedly did just win at San Jose, another team that rarely loses at home. But they needed OT after blowing a 3-0 lead in that game, which also saw them get outshot 38-20. The "Vegas Flu" claims another victim tonight!

With the six-game win streak, Boston has now passed Toronto for second place in the Atlantic, which is important because it means they would host the Maple Leafs (or whomever else finishes 3rd in the division) in the 1st round of the playoffs. Personally, I believe Toronto is the better team, but let's table that discussion for another time. What we do know about the Bruins is that they were just 11-10-5 SU on the road prior to the start of this trip. They average just 2.5 goals per game outside of Beantown and Vegas remains one of the stingier teams in the league at home, giving up only 2.4 gpg. That's 3rd fewest in the league. (Boston ranks 28th in scoring on the road). 

The home team is 3-0 all-time when these teams meet. Boston won 4-1 back in November at a time when the Golden Knights were struggling. It's not like they're playing a whole lot better now (lost 4 of 5), but after being shutout in their last game (3-0 at Colorado), I expect a strong bounce back tonight. After scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game, Vegas is 9-2 SU the next time out. They did have 40 shots on goal vs. the Avs Monday, but just couldn't get any past Semyon Varlamov. Boston is pretty strong between the pipes in its own right, but I see them being under siege here by a Vegas team that is averaging 37.8 shots on goal its L5 games. 10* Vegas 

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): One of the strangest things in the NHL has to be the Devils seeming "mastery" of the Penguins. It's not like these teams could even be considered remotely equal. Over both the short-term (this season) and the last several seasons, the Pens have been the better team. Yet, New Jersey has still found a way to win six of the seven meetings (6-0-1) including all three this season where they've outscored Pittsburgh 15-6. I'd like to point out that the Devils have basically been in last place in the Metro all season and currently have only 54 points to their name. 

I see Pittsburgh breaking through tonight. Right now, they really need two points. They find themselves tied w/ Columbus for third in the Metro and are just one point up on hard-charging Carolina. As things stand now, the Pens would be a Wild Card entrant in the playoffs, but that position is precarious at best. I do see them as better than their current spot though, given they have a top five goal differential in the Eastern Conference. They've certainly had little difficulty scoring of late as they are averaging more than four goals per over the last five games. They scored six in a win over the Rangers Sunday. 

New Jersey comes into tonight off B2B wins. This may not seem like a monumental feat, but for them it's just the third time doing so since starting the season 4-0. Their only win streak of more than two games took place in late December. This is the first time they've posted consecutive wins since mid-January. One of them saw the Devils rally from a three-goal deficit in Minnesota, a game where they were huge underdogs (closed +240) on the ML. I just can't see them winning again, let alone another time against a Penguins team that is clearly superior. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Buffalo (6:05 ET): The Sabres were the talk of the league for awhile as they won 10 straight games back in November. But as I said in my analysis Friday, they've been nothing but mediocre otherwise. Take that one win streaak away and they're just 18-22-7 SU overall. Now I was still able to punch a winning ticket in their last game as I had the Over in a 6-2 loss to the Rangers. Note that had been a competitive game before a late barrage from the Rangers, who scored three times in the final four minutes. Desperation is really starting to grow for Buffalo as they are fifth in the Atlantic and five points out of the Wild Card. Fortunately for tonight, they find themselves in New Jersey where they'll take on the last place Devils. This is a critical two points for the Sabres and I think they grab them. 

I think it helps Buffalo here that NJ is off a win. As you might guess is the case w/ a last place team, the Devils don't win B2B games very often. Since starting the year 4-0, they have put together just three win streaks, two of them just the two game variety. It was a 5-4 win in Minnesota Friday, a game which went to overtime after the Devils rallied from a three-goal deficit. They trailed by two midway into the third period and didn't get the equalizer until only 2:45 was left in regulation. The Devils have still given up 17 goals the L3 games and are 9-20 SU after giving up 4+ in the last game. This isn't a good team and they lost 5-1 the last time they faced the Sabres. 

Of course, it hasn't helped the Devils' cause that they have been w/o MVP Taylor Hall. Goaltending has also been a real issue no matter who is between the pipes. Friday was Corey Schnieder's first win in 14 months! It's unclear who will get the start tonight, but none of the options are great. Buffalo has won three straight times off a SU loss and they are 10-4 SU this season following a loss by two or more goals. This is a really good price to go against a bad team like New Jersey. 10* Buffalo 

10* Calgary (7:05 ET): It appears as if the All-Star Break may have killed the Flames "momentum." They went into the Break as arguably the hottest team in the league, winning 8 of their last 9 games, the lone loss coming in OT. But they've come out by losing four of five, including three straight. I played against them Tuesday in Tampa Bay, which was a 6-3 loss. They've now dropped out of the top spot in the Pacific Division (and Western Conference), ceding that position to San Jose. But this is still a top tier team and I see them getting back on track tonight in Florida.

The Panthers also recently lost to Tampa Bay, only their defeat came on home ice (5-2). That was followed w/ another home loss, this one coming in shutout fashion at the hands of the Stars (3-0). Florida in all likelihood will NOT be going to the postseason this year as they only have 54 points and face a large deficit even to get into Wild Card contention. Last month in Calgary, they lost to the Flames 4-3. The money line for that game had Calgary north of -200, so by comparison this is a strong value on them. The Flames have won 10 of their last 14 visits to Miami. 

The Panthers had actually yet to be shutout in any game this year before Tuesday. They were the only team in the league not to have been shutout at least once. I wouldn't count on them getting back on track offensively tonight as Calgary is #3 in the league in goals allowed on the road. They are also the third highest scoring team in the league overall. So they're the far more likely candidate to bounce back in a battle of slumping teams Thursday. This is just the third time this season that the Flames have been on a three-game losing streak. In each of the previous two instances, they won the next time out. 10* Calgary

8* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): Stanley Cup Finals preview? It might be as the Lightning and Flames lead their respective conferences in points (as of this writing). For the record, Calgary could find itself in second place in its own division by game time, depending on what happens w/ San Jose Monday night. Irregardless of that, I don't like the Flames chances Tuesday night. Tampa Bay is a ridiculously strong team on home ice w/ a 21-5-2 SU record here. They are the better team and this is a fair price. Calgary has lost two straight and three of four since the All-Star Break. 

The Lightning had their own two game losing streak post-Break and both losses came at home. They were to Vegas and St. Louis. For what it's worth, those losses both came past regulation. The most surprising thing about them is that the Lightning scored only two goals in them. But they've since bounce back w/ a pair of wins, scoring five goals each time. The most recent win came in Florida, 5-2, on Sunday. That on the heels of avenging a prior loss against the Penguins. Let it be known that TB is the only team in the league that averages a higher number of goals per game than Calgary. 

Since the Break, the Flames have given up 16 goals in four games. After losing at home to San Jose last week, 5-2, they lost in a shootout to Vancouver Saturday night. Considering they outshot the Canucks 47-25, that's a game they should have won. But they didn't. Tampa beat them in Calgary back in December, 5-4 (in a shootout), so they should be able to win here at home too. I think it's fair to wonder if Flames goalie Dave Rittich will be able to continue his extraordinary play moving forward. 8* Tampa Bay

8* San Jose (10:05 ET): The Sharks have won five in a row and can make it a clean sweep through Western Canada w/ a win tonight in Vancouver. Through the years, San Jose has certainly had the number of this Pacific Division rival, beating the Canucks four straight times and 9 out of the last 10. They've met only one time this season and that was back in November w/ SJ turning in a 4-0 shutout at home as massive -295 ML favorites. I look for San Jose to keep rolling here.

Shockingly, the Canucks have managed to stay in playoff contention into February, even beating 1st place Calgary (in a shootout) Saturday night. That win snapped a three-game losing streak. I might be a little biased seeing as I was on the Flames, but Vancouver really had no business winning Sat night given that they were outshot 47-25. They now are just two points back of the Wild Card, but as I said in my previous analysis, this team was expected to be a bottom-feeder at the start of the season. I'm not convinced they're a legit contender yet. 

Vancouver beating Calgary helped San Jose as the Sharks are now just one point back of the Flames for 1st in the Pacific. The Sharks also hold a recent win over the Flames, theirs coming in Calgary though by a score of 5-2. Before that, they'd won three straight overtime games. But it was domination in Alberta, not just against the Flames, but also in Edmonton on Saturday as they again won 5-2, this time led by Kevin Labanc's 1st career hat trick. San Jose is now third in the league in scoring (3.63 gpg) and simply a much better team than Vancouver, who is only 1-5 the L6 times they've been off a win. 8* San Jose 

6* Boston (3:05 ET): Both teams played Saturday. For Colorado, the result was an all-too familiar one as they lost 4-3 (in overtime) to the Islanders. It was their sixth loss in a row overall. Earlier in the season, it was looking as if the Avs' top line of Rantanen-Landeskog-MacKinnon would be enough to carry this team into the playoffs for a second straight year. But now they find themselves second from the bottom in the Central, only one point ahead of the lowly Blackhawks. 

The Bruins were 5-4 winners (in OT) yday as they beat the Kings. It was Boston's third win in the last four games and it should be noted that in the one loss, they blew a 3-1 third period lead. To me, the B's remain a pretty safe bet to get back to the playoffs, but right now they'd have to settle for being a Wild Card w/ 68 points. The good news though is that they are only one point back of third place (Montreal) in the Atlantic and three back of second place (Toronto). 

Colorado's lack of depth has come back to bite them and the bottom line is that no matter how talented the top line is, the team isn't going to win much when it's giving up four or more goals in every game. I realize the last two losses both came in OT, but they've still allowed 4+ goals every time during the six-game slide. Boston, meanwhile, is top three in the league in goals allowed per game. I don't think an afternoon game, on the road, is where Colorado "figures things out." It's not only the second game of a back to back, but also their third road game in four days. The Bruins are simply the better team here and priced appropriately. 6* Boston

8* Calgary (10:05 ET): Perhaps there's an argument to be made that the All-Star Break came at the WRONG time for the Flames. Pardon the pun, but they went into the Break as one of the league's hottest teams with an 8-0-1 record their last nine games. Since the Break, they've dropped two of three, including a rare poor effort at home Thursday where they gave up five goals to San Jose. But I still consider Calgary to be one of the league's best teams as only Tampa Bay has more points and a better goal differential. Tonight they'll travel to Vancouver to face a slumping Canucks side and should get the 'W.' 

Vancouver has not played at home since the All-Star Break and last won a home game on 1/20. A four-game road trip is how they started the second half of the season. After beating Colorado 5-1 on February 2nd, they then dropped three in a row - all one goal decisions. The most recent was a 4-3 loss at Chicago Thursday night. Given the Canucks are very much alive for one of the Western Conference's two Wild Card spots, that stretch really hurt. But I think it's important to remember just where this club was expected to finish. Preseason projections had them near the bottom of the league, so don't be shocked if they start to tumble down the standings.

As for Calgary, this is a revenge spot as they lost at home to the Canucks back on 12/29, 3-2. They have dropped two of three to the Canucks this season, but all three games took place before the New Year. The Flames are a substantially better team now than they were back then and while they don't score as many goals on the road as the do at home, they happen to lead the entire NHL in goals ALLOWED on the road, giving up just 2.4 per game. They have won eight in a row against teams w/ losing records and are 14-2 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals in their previous game. 8* Calgary

10* Carolina (8:05 ET): The Rangers ought to be thanking those working in the NHL's scheduling department because for a second straight game they'll be playing at home and against an unrested foe that's coming off a game the night prior. In this same situation Wednesday, they were able to rally back from a 3-1 third period deficit to beat Boston. It took a shootout to do so, but in the end, it was still two points. But let's not go mistaking that result for anything special. This is still a bad team, one of the league's worst in fact. They may have been able to sneak by Boston, but the same thing won't happen here against Carolina.

The Hurricanes were winners last night, 6-5 in Buffalo. That was one of an NHL record eight overtime games played Thursday. It was a huge win for the 'Canes considering where they're currently at in the standings. They're now just three points back of the Wild Card in the Eastern Conference. Twice Carolina blew a two-goal lead in last night's game, including in the final five minutes of regulation. The fact that they still won is huge not only for the obvious reason, but also because a loss in that situation would have been quite deflating heading into tonight. The Hurricanes also were able to win a game where they were outshot, 39-30. More often than not this season, we've seen the reverse as they lose despite outshooting the opposition.

Carolina owns - by far - the largest edge in shots forced vs. allowed in the league (+7.5 per game). One would think that metric would signify more success. It's starting to as the team has gone 12-4-1 its L17 games. They're 3-1 since the All-Star Break w/ an impressive 4-0 shutout of the Penguins to their credit. Over the last five games, they've averaged 4.6 goals. This is a payback game for the 'Canes as they lost here at MSG, 6-2, back on January 15th. They had a 36-28 edge in shots in that game, which saw the Rangers go 3 for 3 on the power play. That won't happen again and this time the 'Canes will have their #1 goaltender (Petr Mrazek) between the pipes. 10* Carolina

8* Nashville (8:05 ET): The Central Division has largely been about two teams this season, Winnipeg and Nashville. However, Dallas is trying to crash the party w/ a five-game win streak that predates the All-Star Break. The Stars are 4-0 since the Break and that includes a win here in Music City on Saturday. What are the chances they can beat the Preds twice in a row on the road? Not high from where I sit. Nashville is already 9-4 SU seeking revenge for a home loss this season. 

Though I won w/ the Stars on Monday, it was not an easy victory for them. They needed to score four times in the third period to overcome an uncharacteristic poor night on the defensive end. While they'd given up just two goals total in the previous three games, they allowed four to the Coyotes. It was a game they were pretty lucky to win considering they'd been outshot 42-29. Three of their five goals came via the power play. I wouldn't expect that kind of offense again from a team that ranks just 28th in the league in goals per game. 

Nashville also happens to be off a home win over the Coyotes. There's came the night after the Stars' (Tuesday) and clearly the Preds benefited from the 'Yotes being in a bad spot. It was an easy 5-2 win, indicative of what we've seen from this club most of the year. They finished w/ a 47-26 edge in shots and perhaps most importantly they ended an 0 for 34 streak on the power play. I think the revenge angle is key here as Dallas has actually won twice in Nashville this season. The third time will be the charm for the Preds. 8* Nashville

8* Boston (7:05 ET): After they rewarded my faith by beating the Islanders 3-1 last night, I'm coming right back w/ the Bruins yet again Thursday. They've now won B2B games, including a 1-0 shutout of the Capitals on Sunday. They are still fourth in the Atlantic, but only two points out of second. A win tonight would have them no lower than third in the division and possibly tied for 2nd (Toronto hosts Ottawa). When playing in the second night of a back to back, carrying two steady goaltenders on the roster is a nice luxury to have. Fortunately for Boston, Jaroslav Halak has played just as big a role in the team ranking 4th in goals allowed as has last night's star Tuukka Rask. Look for the Bruins to keep rolling tonight.

The Rangers are not a very good team. They've dropped both of the February games, each coming here at MSG. They lost 3-2 to the Lightning (no shame there) and 4-3 to the Kings. While not completely out of contention, for all intents and purposes, the Rangers aren't going anywhere this season. This was meant to be a rebuilding year and they are clearly one of the weaker teams in the Eastern Conference. They rank 25th or lower in both goals scored and allowed. Monday against the Kings was a particularly frustrating setback as they allowed the game tying goal in the final minute of regulation, then lost in overtime. It's been a long time (late December) since the Blueshirts dropped a game beyond regulation. It will be interesting to see how they respond. 

My guess is "not good" given they are facing a top flight opponent. The Bruins are actually 7-2 SU playing in the second night of a back to back, so the situation isn't really a concern. There should be no letdown from last night either considering this is a revenge spot for a 3-2 loss at home that took place three weeks back. The Bruins lost that game despite surrendering only 20 shots. They are 4-1 seeking revenge for a home loss. While the Rangers may be 6-1 SU the L7 H2H meetings, most of those were contested when they were a more competitive outfit. 8* Boston

8* Boston (7:05 ET): The Islanders continue to be a massive surprise as they lead the Metro w/ 66 points. After losing their first game after the All-Star Break (1-0 to Tampa Bay), they beat the Kings on Saturday by a count of 4-2. That has them at 13-2-2 their last 17 games overall. But I don't see them going into Boston tonight and winning. The Bruins need this game as they are 4th over in the Atlantic. In terms of making the playoffs, they're not in a bad spot as they have a seven-point cushion when it comes to the Wild Card. But, like Sunday, this could be a statement over a potential 1st round playoff opponent. 

On Super Bowl Sunday, the Bruins went to the Nation's Capital and beat the defending Stanley Cup Champs 1-0. That was a much needed win as they were on a three-game losing streak. They also ended a 14-game losing streak to Washington. I thought they outplayed the Caps, outshooting them 39-24. A big key to the Bruins success this year is that they rank 4th in the league in goals allowed. The Islanders are one of the three teams above them in that category, but here at home Boston has an advantage. Their scoring goes up to 3.4 goals per game on home ice. Also, they're 5-1 SU this season after scoring 1 goal or less their previous game. 

No one saw the Islanders coming this year. I thought they'd improve some, but certainly not to this degree. Last year saw them give up the most goals in a single season in league history. Now they've given up the fewest number in the league. But goalie Robin Lehner has a checkered history vs. the Bruins, going just 4-11-4 in 19 career appearances. Boston's likely starter Tuukka Rask is 13-5 all-time vs. the Isles. Though they've dropped six of nine, the Bruins have played better as three of those losses came beyond regulation and two others were by a single goal. The Isles needed to come from behind to beat the Kings on Saturday. I don't think they can keep defying the odds. 8* Boston

6* Dallas (8:35 ET): The Stars have come out of the All-Star Break hot, winning three in a row while giving up just two goals in the process. That's emblematic of the somewhat radical transformation of this club, which finds itself ranked 2nd in the league in goals allowed after spending many seasons ranked near the bottom of the category. The transformation actually began last season, but this year they've been even stingier. The Stars just picked up two huge division wins to begin February, beating Minnesota and Nashville. I don't see there being any kind of letdown tonight for this home game against a team they have traditionally dominated. 

Dallas is where Arizona wishes it was right now, that being third place in the division. These teams will actually become division rivals in a few years when the Coyotes move over to the Central (to make room for the expansion team in Seattle). As for right now, the 'Yotes only need to worry about trying to get into the top three in their own division, or at least procure one of the two Wild Card spots. Facing a double digit gap in points, it's unlikely that they will finish top three in the Pacific. But the WC is a realistic possibility as they're only three points out of that race despite suffering B2B losses.

Arizona has played only one time since the Break and they lost 3-2 in San Jose. Tonight will actually be their fifth straight road game, a trip that began all the way back on January 20th in Eastern Canada. That's a lot of time zones to be jumping in and out of and it's not like the Coyotes are any "great shakes" away from home (though their record is actually better on the road than at home!). Dallas just won in Nashville, which is very impressive, and has held eight of its previous nine opponents to two goals or fewer. They shut the Coyotes out, 3-0, here at home back in October. They should roll again tonight. 6* Dallas 

8* Montreal (2:05 ET): The Canadiens got a nice long vacation thanks to the All-Star Break (last played a game on 1/23), so rest certainly will not be an issue Saturday when they entertain New Jersey for Eastern Conference matinee. The Habs are currently tied with Boston for 3rd in the Atlantic Division (w/ 61 pts). Of course, finishing third in your division guarantees a team a playoff berth. Montreal is also only two points out of second. So a win here would go a long way in the team's future standing in what has already been a nice bounce back season.

Barring a miracle, New Jersey is likely not headed to the postseason. They're last in the Metro w/ just 45 points. There are many reasons for this, including the fact the team ranks 28th in goals allowed. They're also pretty horrible on the road. In fact, they have the league's worst road record at 6-17-3 SU. Two of those wins have come at Pittsburgh of all places, including a 6-3 victory there in their 1st game back from the All-Star Break. But that was followed up w/ a 4-3 home loss to the Rangers on Thursday. Having already played twice since the Break puts this already subpar side at even more of a disadvantage. 

The Habs should also have a little payback on their minds tonight after losing 5-2 down in NJ back in November. No matter who ends up in goal here for the Devils, we shouldn't expect strong play between the pipes as the collective save percentage of their netminders on the road is .881, which is really bad. Only two teams are worse. Montreal's Carey Price was really strong heading into the Break, posting a .971 save percentage his L4 starts. When playing w/ three or more days rest this season, the Habs have gone 3-1. This game sets up nicely for them and should be an easy two points. 8* Montreal

10* Washington (7:05 ET): Getting a week off of work is never a bad thing (foreign to me though!), but for Calgary, they probably wished the All-Star Break came at a different time. Arguably the hottest team in the league heading into the Break, the Flames have won eight of their last nine games, the only loss coming in overtime. They lead not only the Pacific Division, but the entire Western Conference w/ 71 pts. The only team in the league w/ more points (and a better goal differential) is Tampa Bay. But you have to wonder if the Break might interfere w/ their "momentum" (hate that word). Last year, the team lost six straight after the All-Star Game. 

Washington is just the opposite of Calgary in that they were glad to take some time off. They are currently on a season-worst seven-game slide and haven't won in three weeks. Prior to the current losing streak, the Capitals had not lost more than three games in a row at any point this season. Looking at the final scores of their recent games, it is not difficult to ascertain what has gone wrong here in the Nation's Capital. Over the L5 games, the Caps have surrendered an absolutely stunning 30 goals. They've given up six or more four times in that stretch. Another problem they have for tonight is that Alex Ovechkin won't be on the ice. He's suspended for his refusal to partake in the All-Star festivities.

Yes, these teams headed into the Break in the most opposite of ways possible. But I think the time off will have done the Caps some good. While they won't have Ovechkin, the team itself is still very good in spite of how it played in January. The goaltending is going to get better, if for no other reason than it can't get any worse. Calgary is one of the top scoring teams in the league, but their scoring drops by more than a full goal per game on the road (3.1) from what they average at home (4.3). As for Calgary's goaltending, Dave Rittich has really carried them. But can we really expect him to maintain a .944 save percentage away from home? His L4 starts showed some signs of "slippage" as his save percentage was down to .899. 10* Washington

8* Buffalo (7:05 ET): This will be Chicago's 1st game since the All-Star Break. Meanwhile, it's the third for the Sabres. But I wouldn't worry about any fatigue from the latter's perspective. Buffalo is finally back home and should be pretty fired up to play in front of its fans, against a lesser opponent no less. From the very start of the season, my read on the Blackhawks has been pretty consistent. The oddsmakers were slow to realize just how bad this club truly is and we've been able to take advantage numerous times by going against them, no matter the price. 

There are many reasons why Chicago has fallen so hard. Little depth is one. Being unable to keep their opponents from scoring is another. But the bottom line is that only one team (Kings) has a worse YTD goal differential, and only two (Kings, Senators) have fewer points at this juncture. The Blackhawks are 30th in the league in goals allowed and last (31st) in penalty killing. Two wins before the All-Star Break (both at home) isn't going to convince me that the second half will be much different than the 1st. The loss of goaltender Corey Crawford for the foreseeable future leaves them w/o a viable option between the pipes. 

At one point, Buffalo was the talk of the league w/ a 10-game win streak. But they've subsided since and now find themselves outside the top eight in the Eastern Conference. But there's still hope as they're only three points back of the Wild Card. They've played two one-goal games since the Break, winning 5-4 in Columbus, then losing 1-0 in Dallas the following night. But now they're back home where they haven't played since January 12th. The crowd should be happy to see them. Like Chicago, there is a depth issue here beyond the top line. But the Sabres are still on pace to blow past their preseason projection of 80.5 points and they have a 14-6-3 SU record at home. Wednesday was only the 2nd time all season that they've been shutout. Big bounce back game at home for them tonight against an easy opponent. 8* Buffalo

6* Boston (7:05 ET): Everything lines up pretty well here for the Bruins. They're at home. They're the better team. They'll be motivated. I know that Philadelphia comes in riding a five-game win streak and is 2-0 since the All-Star Break. But I wouldn't go taking the Flyers very seriously. Even w/ the five straight wins, Philly only has 48 points. Only five teams have fewer. Their YTD goal differential of -27 is tied for 5th worst in the league. This is a team that has already matched a league record by using six goaltenders in one season. We still have 32 games to go. 

Boston lost its first game since the All-Star Break, at home to Winnipeg. The game came down to a shootout and was the fourth time in the last five games the Bruins lost by one goal. The B's really need to be careful as they've fallen to fourth place in the Atlantic, which means there's no guarantee of a playoff berth if they were to finish there. The good news though is they are only two points out of 2nd place in the division and there's only one team (Tampa Bay) in the entire Eastern Conference w/ more than 63 points. Boston has outscored its opponents this season by 14 goals and would appear to have a major advantage in goal tonight, no matter who is between the pipes.

Boston owes Philly a little payback too. One of those recent one-goal losses that they suffered was in the City of Brotherly Love two weeks ago. Incredibly, the Bruins finished w/ a 42-19 edge in shots, but still lost 4-3. That should never happen. But Boston is much stronger on home ice w/ a 17-7-2 SU record as opposed to 10-10-4 SU on the road. The Bruins also had the edge in shots (39-27) Tuesday vs. Winnipeg. Consider this: during their five-game win streak, the Flyers are somehow outscoring opponents by two full goals per game despite a shot differential of -13.0 per game! Boston is 1-4 SU its last five games despite being +12.4 shots per game! What Philadelphia is doing is unsustainable. Boston absolutely deserves to be a favorite in this price range. 6* Boston 

10* Winnipeg (7:05 ET): The Jets were one of the league's top teams in the first half of the season. They entered the All-Star Break tied for 1st place (w/ Nashville) in the Central Division. Only two teams - Tampa Bay & Calgary - have more points. But here Winnipeg will be looking to rebound from a defeat in their last game, which took place nine days ago in Dallas. They start the 2nd half in Philadelphia Monday night where they'll find a Flyers team that's on a rare three-game win streak. The Jets are simply the much better team in this matchup and thus should be played accordingly.

While Winnipeg has established itself as one of the NHL's top teams, the Flyers reside at the opposite end of the league spectrum. Only a few teams have a worse goal differential this season. Philly has given up 30 more goals than it has scored and has the second fewest number of points in the league. Only Ottawa & New Jersey (both 43) have fewer and it's only a one-point difference. I mentioned earlier that the three-game win streak the Flyers are currently on is pretty rare. It's only the second of its length for the club all season. The last one (Nov 5-10) was immediately followed up by them losing six of their next seven games. 

The Flyers totaled 16 goals in the three wins before the All-Star Break. That's a high number for them as they're only tied for 20th in the league in goals per game. More problematic though has been the goaltending. They've already tied a NHL record by using SIX different goaltenders this season and we still have 34 games left. Philly ranks 29th in the league in goals allowed and has terrible special teams to boot. When these teams met last month in Manitoba, the Jets absolutely dominated, winning 7-1. 10* Winnipeg

10* Vancouver (10:35 ET): Few, if any, would have expected the Canucks to be playoff contenders going into the All-Star Break, but that's precisely where we're at right now in British Columbia. The club has 52 points entering Wednesday, which has them tied for a Wild Card spot in the not very deep Western Conference. Vancouver is unlikely to catch any of the top three (Calgary-San Jose-Vegas) in the Pacific, but right now they have as good a shot as any at grabbing one of those two WC spots. Tonight, they are benefiting from facing an opponent that is playing in the second night of a back to back. Look for the Canucks' somewhat "improbable" run to continue here! 

Carolina not only played last night, they lost in OT. For them, this is the end of a three-game trek in Western Canada. It started Sunday in Edmonton (where I took them) and they won there 7-4. But last night's loss to Calgary was all too emblematic of the kind of season the team from Raleigh is having. They outshot the Flames, 35-25, but it didn't end up mattering in the end. The 'Canes own the top shot differential in the league, but that simply has not translated into wins as they are below .500 and probably have a worse shot at making the playoffs than does Vancouver. Carolina's shooting percentage for the year is just 7.7% (woeful) and their goaltending does them no favors w/ a bottom five save percentage. 

While Carolina is playing its third road game in four nights and the second of a back to back, tonight marks the sixth straight home game for Vancouver, who has also been off for the last two days. Two key returns have sparked a two-game win streak for the Canucks. One is rookie Elias Pettersson, who leads all rookies w/ 44 points. Pettersson had a goal and an assist in Sunday's 3-2 win over Detroit. Goaltender Markstrom is also back and he stopped 35 of 37 shots in that same game. Note the Canucks have not been beaten in regulation during this homestand as they've gone 3-0-2. 10* Vancouver 

8* Edmonton (9:05 ET): If you don't defend home ice, then there's a strong likelihood you're not going to move up the standings. That's the dilemma facing the Oilers right now as Connor McDavid and company have dropped B2B games as well as 8 out of their L10 games at Rogers Place. I just played against them here, Sunday, as they lost 7-4 to Carolina. As noted in the analysis, that was a terrible spot for Edmonton as they were coming off a loss the night prior to rival Calgary in the Battle of Alberta. Somehow, despite the struggles at home, the Oilers have been able to stay in the playoff race. But they desperately need to win this final game before the All-Star Break. 

It'll be a far more favorable matchup tonight for Edmonton as they welcome in one of the worst teams in the league. Detroit has just four wins in its previous 19 games and is at the end of a three-game trip through Western Canada. The schedule makers did them no favors by having them go from Calgary to Vancouver and back to Edmonton. The Red Wings lost both games, 6-4 at Calgary and 3-2 at Vancouver, to fall to 8-13-3 on the road and into last place in the Atlantic Division. There's just not much this club does well right now, and they already lost to the Oilers (at home) back in November. 

The power play could prove to the difference maker in this one as Edmonton is 9th in the league w/ the man advantage, converting at a 21.5% rate. Detroit's PP has been brutal of late, including an 0 for 3 showing in Vancouver. You have to think the Oilers are due to start winning some home games. They enter the day just three points back of the Wild Card in the Western Conference, so getting two points here is a must. Detroit's playoff chances are all but dead at this point as they're facing a 15-point deficit in the standings and clearly looking to rebuild. 8* Edmonton

8* Carolina (9:35 ET): At first, you might be a bit surprised to see the Hurricanes favored in Edmonton, but don't be. Despite suffering B2B embarrassing losses (to the Rangers & Ottawa), Carolina does have some key metrics in their favor. Eventually, this team is going to start scoring. They have to, considering they lead the league in shots per game and shot per game differential. Poor goaltending has hurt them, but it's mostly been strong goaltending by the opposition that has hurt them the most. While their own save percentage is slightly below .900 for the year, opponents have posted a .925 save percentage against the Canes this season. That's substantial. The good news here is that Edmonton's YTD save percentage is no better than that of Carolina.

What the Oilers do have, at least recently, is a ridiculous .859 shot percentage over the L5 games. Despite an average of just 25.6 shots on goal during that time, they have averaged 3.6 goals per game, basically the opposite of what we're seeing w/ Carolina, who has a lot of shots that aren't being converted into the requisite number of goals. For Edmonton, that unusual percentage is mostly due to a 7-2 win over Buffalo last Monday. They were actually outshot in that game 43-25. But that caught up w/ them last night as their luck ran out here at home vs. Calgary (lost 5-2).

Losing the "Battle of Alberta" should have a carryover-type effect for the Oilers tonight. It's always disappointing to drop a game to your rival, especially when you're outclassed as badly as Edmonton was. Having to come back and play the next night is tough. Carolina had won 7 of 8 prior to losing its last two games. Coach Rod Brind'Amour has promised line changes for this game and I believe that will chance the Canes' fate. Look for them to get the two points Sunday night. 8* Carolina