8* Toronto (7:35 ET): The Maple Leafs got off to a great start, winning seven of their first nine games, but currently find themselves at just 9-7 SU. They did, however, win their last time out. It required a shootout, but they got by those pesky Vegas Golden Knights, 4-3, on Monday. That improved the Leafs to 3-0 in OT/shootouts so far, a well-deserved mark considering LY's unfortunate 1-8 shootout record (which was a league-worst). So don't be surprised to see the improvement continue, moving forward. Tonight, they're hosting a Minnesota club that has really disappointed so far. The Wild find themselves in last place in the Central Division w/ only 12 points and they've lost B2B games. I can't see this being the spot where they turn things around. 

No one is denying Toronto's ability to score. They rank 2nd in the league in goals per game w/ 3.8. But it's at the other end of the ice where they get themselves into trouble. They rank 29th (third worst) in goals allowed (3.6 per game) and that's a discrepancy that must be rectified if this team is to make any real noise. Now Auston Matthews has been declared out for tonight, making it the first time the Leafs' star has EVER missed a game in his young career. But, like I alluded to earlier, offense is not my concern w/ this team. They'll find ways to score with or without Matthews. It's the other end that we need to concentrate on. Fortunately, they'll be facing a Wild team that has already been shutout twice this season. 

Minnesota also has its own goaltending issues as Devan Dubnyk is struggling and had to be pulled Monday vs. Boston. It's likely we'll be seeing Alex Stalock between the pipes here tonight. For Toronto, it should be Frederik Andersen and while he's struggled at home so far, we should see his numbers start to improve. The Maple Leafs are averaging more than 35 shots per game at home while the Wild are giving up that many on the road. Even w/o Matthews, the Leafs should find a way to outscore the Wild tonight. 8* Toronto

8* Carolina (7:05 ET): Currently, there is an amazing amount of parity in the Eastern Conference. Of the 16 teams, 11 have between 15 and 19 points. One team - Tampa Bay - has jumped out ahead of the pack. At the opposite end of the spectrum, there are four teams that are struggling. Two of them meet here w/ Carolina hosting Florida on Tuesday. Both have lost four straight games. Two of those four losses for the 'Canes have come in a shootout, including the last one, at Arizona. Considering the Coyotes had just one win previously, that's quite the embarrassing loss. But at least they get to return home Tuesday. All four losses during the Panthers' active streak came at home and they've allowed a frightening number of goals in the last three (20!). They are also just 1-4 SU on the road.

I'm a firm believer that a team's number of shots on goal vs. allowed is an important metric which can be used to predict future success. If that's true, then Carolina is in good shape here. They are averaging 36.1 shots per game while allowing only 29.2. That's the second biggest positive gap in the league w/ their own number of shots ranking third while the number allowed being second fewest! Over the L5 games, the discrepancy has actually grown (+11.0 per game), so it's pretty head-scratching to see them struggling. As for Florida, they are giving up the highest number of shots per game in the league (37.4) by a comfortable margin, which in turn has resulted in them giving up the highest number of goals per game (4.2) in the league. It also doesn't help that they're PK unit ranks 30th (out of 31 teams) at 70.6%. 

I expect the goals to start coming for Carolina and facing the league's worst defensive team seems like a good starting point. Two games ago, they held a ridiculous 60-27 edge in shots on Colorado ... and yet somehow still lost! Saturday in Arizona was already discussed and is made more disappointing by the fact the 'Canes allowed only 24 shots on goal and still lost. I just don't think this trend can continue as they've outshot all but TWO opponents this season. Better results HAVE to be on the horizon, right? As for Florida, I'm not about to endorse a team w/ such putrid defensive numbers. They also only average 2.4 goals per game on the road, which is way down from their scoring average on home ice. 8* Carolina

8* Dallas (8:35 ET): Of the NHL's four divisions, one could make the case that the Central is the toughest. Every team, save for one, has a positive goal differential thus far and five teams are separated by just a single point. Count these two among that group. Most, myself included, were banking on the Stars rebounding this year. This team won the Central two years ago (had most points in the Western Conference!) before plummeting down to only 79 points and out of the playoffs altogether last year. They come in off a 5-1 win over Buffalo and have won three of their last four overall. Tonight, they seek to avenge the one loss during that stretch as they host a Winnipeg team that got them, 5-2, in Manitoba last week. 

The Jets followed that win by losing at home to Montreal on Saturday, 5-4 in overtime. They are an unfortunate 0-3 in OT games thus far, but one could certainly make the case that the Jets were lucky to even be in position to win against the Habs considering they were outshot 50-23. This is a team that hasn't managed more than 27 shots on goal in any of its previous four games. At the same time, they are giving up one of the highest number of shots per game in the league at 34.5. They did outshoot Dallas last week, 27-23, but perhaps the biggest key there was on special teams as Winnipeg was able to convert 2 of 3 power play chances while not taking a single penalty themselves. I can't envision that same scenario playing out tonight.

Since losing the opener to Vegas, Dallas has won five in a row on home ice and they've done it in fairly dominant fashion by allowing just 1.7 goals per game here. Now they may be a bit shorthanded up front for this game as Radek Faska and Tyler Pitlick are both listed as doubtful. However, I'm going to lean on what I feel is a strong goaltending edge in this one for the Starts as the acquisition of Ben Bishop has proven fruitful thus far as he has a .949 save percentage on home ice. Connor Hellebuyck has been similarly stingy for the Jets, but I have less faith in him maintaining the current level of play. Bishop had arguably his worst game in a Stars uniform LW vs. the Jets and I don't see history repeating itself tonight. 8* Dallas

8* Pittsburgh (10:05 ET): Vancouver is one of a number of early season surprises in this league as we expected them to be bad, but they're currently in the thick of the Pacific Division race w/ 14 points. But as we saw w/ another "surprise" team last night, New Jersey, it's probably only a matter of time before this group starts falling off (Vegas too). Tonight, we're able to grab a pretty cheap number all things considered as the Penguins are the defending Stanley Cup Champions. Granted, when they've lost, it's generally been by large margins. But the Pens are still the Pens and off a loss, I'm banking on them to bounce back Saturday. 

This is the final game of a 5-game trip for Pittsburgh. They've dropped three of the previous four, scoring just one goal in every loss. The latest was to Calgary, 2-1 on Thursday. That was an overtime game and the Pens had a 44-34 edge in shots. Ironically, they've outshot every opponent that beat them on this trip, but had a shot deficit in the game they won at Edmonton. They ran into a hot goalie Thursday (Mike Smith, who made 43 saves), but I don't see that being the case tonight as Vancouver goalie Jacob Markstrom has a 1-5 SU record at home. One positive for the Pens is that they still rank 2nd in the league on the power play (at 29.1%). 

The Canucks have actually been quite stingy this year, ranking 3rd in goals allowed. But they're just 26th in goals scored per game and that's hurt them the L2 games as they've managed just one goal total in losses to Dallas and New Jersey, both taking place at home. After scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game, Vancouver is just 18-32 SU the L3 seasons. They are also an ugly 24-56 when facing a team with a winning record. They've scored one goal or less in three of the past four games. I just don't see them having the firepower to stay with the defending NHL champs. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Edmonton (9:05 ET): Expectations were "through the roof" in Alberta coming into this season. The Oilers, led by Connor McDavid, were supposed to reclaim lost glory (this was the league's premier franchise in the 1980's w/ Wayne Gretzky) and possibly contend for the Stanley Cup. However, let's never forget what they say about the best laid plans. Instead, what we've gotten from the Oilers thus far is a whole lot of disappointment as they're 3-7-2 (7 pts) and the only team below them in the Pacific Division is league-worst Arizona. Now, I was not quite as bullish on the Oilers coming into this year, but I do believe tonight is a great "buy low" opportunity as they host the surprising Devils.

New Jersey's resume reads the exact opposite of Edmonton's. Nothing was expected from the Devils in 2017-18 as they were coming off a last place finish in the Metro and were again one of the league's lowest scoring teams. But, rather shockingly, they are off to a 9-2 start and tied w/ Columbus and Pittsburgh atop the Metro. Only the three other division leaders can lay claim to having more points and what's most shocking of all is the team currently ranking third in goals per game (3.6). If these were any other two teams, I might decide the one with the better record would be an easy call, but not in this matchup as I don't think either team's start is representative of what we'll see moving forward.

Case in point: Edmonton is somehow only 2-5 SU on home ice despite averaging a monster 40.4 shots per game! Overall this season, opposing goaltenders have posted a pretty incredible .942 save percentage against them. Over the course of a season, no team will face such stingy goaltending. The Oilers lead the league in shots per game, yet somehow are LAST in goals per game! Better results will certainly be on the way, however, if they continue to pepper the net. Even more remarkable is the Oilers are top 10 in fewest shots allowed! So they're really dominating possession despite the disappointing results. As for New Jersey, they're being outshot this season and consider they're allowing the third most (shots) per game, it's remarkable they have the record that they do. Past Devils' teams could never have overcome giving up 34.5 shots per game. But the pattern so far this season has seen the Devils win three straight and lose their next time out. It's happened two times thus far. Well, Wednesday's 2-0 shutout of Vancouver made it three straight wins. Time to lose again! 10* Edmonton

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): Second night in a row that I'm playing against the Flyers on the road. Last night, it was a 3-0 shutout w/ the Blackhawks and coming off that loss, I really dislike Philly's chances here against the top team from the Central Division. The Blues have opened the season by going 10-2-1 and their 21 pts are currently tied w/ Tampa Bay for most in the entire league. They are also the only team in the league yet to lose at home (5-0 at Scottrade Center). Considering the issues the Flyers continue to deal with on the back end (talked about that in yday's analysis) and the fact this situation is hardly ideal, I'll gladly back the home team here.

As discussed yday, the Flyers' blue line has been wrecked by injuries. Four of their seven active defensemen are rookies. That's starting to show in terms of the number of shots allowed as the last two games have seen them give up 34 and 35. That includes the indignity of losing to previously winless Arizona at home, back on Monday. With the inexperienced blue line, the Flyers could really use some strong play between the pipes, but they're not getting it as Brian Elliott has a save percentage of only .892 for the season and Michael Neuvirth (likely to get the nod tonight) is down at .873 on the road thus far. Of course, last night saw the offense fail score, which means it doesn't matter how good or bad the play is on the other end of the ice. The only other time the Flyers have had to play B2B nights this year was the first two games of the season and they were shutout by the Kings in the second game there. 

As for the Blues, there are far less issues going on currently. They've won four straight and are unbeaten in regulation the L7 games (6-0-1). They are off B2B four-goal efforts, which is a good sign seeing as their record this season after scoring 4+ goals in the previous game is 5-1. While the Philly blue line has been ravaged by injuries, St. Louis' defensemen have stepped up and contributed 14 goals so far. This team is rested and ready having not played since Monday. Goalie Jake Allen has played well, especially at home where his save percentage is .942. Considering the Flyers have been shutout three times in 13 games, Allen should be more than up to the task here. 8* St. Louis

8* Chicago (8:05 ET): After a fast start to the season, the Blackhawks have now dropped three in a row and find themselves closer to the bottom than the top in the logjammed Central Division. Going back a bit further, we find that they've dropped five of their last six as well w/ the only win coming against league-worst Arizona. Perhaps a return home might do them some good, however. It's not like the opponent is any "great shakes" as Philly suffered the indignity of being the first team to lose to Arizona in its last game. Overall, the Flyers have dropped three of their last four and - due to injury - are battling a number of injuries that have left them quite inexperienced on the blue line. You know the Blackhawks won't be down for long, so I'm "buying low" here.

Four of Philadelphia's active seven defensemen are rookies. It's shown w/ them allowing four or more goals in three of the past four games. We're also starting to see them allow more shots as the 34 allowed against the 'Yotes were the most given up by the Flyers in any game in nearly two weeks. With the lack of depth across the blue line, the team could really use some strong play between the pipes right now, but they're not getting it as #1 goaltender Brian Elliott comes in sporting an .884 save percentage for the season as well as a 3.23 goals against average. The fact that the team has still managed to go 5-2-1 in his 8 starts should be considered fortunate. Chicago is familiar w/ Elliott due to his time spent in St. Louis and in 18 career games against them, his save percentage is only .910.

The Blackhawks reportedly had a spirited practice session Tuesday as HC Joel Qunneville chewed them out for lack of effort and thus extended the actual practice time. I fully expect the team to respond accordingly. Goaltender Corey Crawford comes in w/ a .935 save percentage overall and .950 at home. He did not play in the team's embarrassing 6-3 loss at Colorado on Saturday. Despite losing, Chicago has dominated in terms of shots on goal each of the last two games w/ an 86-58 edge over the Preds and Avs. The problem has been a power play, which is now 1 for its last 21. But I expect that area to improve and offensively, I'm calling for a big game here from the Blackhawks. Crawford should be able to handle the rest and thus the 'Hawks will improve to 4-1 SU vs. the Eastern Conference this season. 8* Chicago

8* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): For some time now, I've been saying that this "dream start" for the Vegas Golden Knights was bound to hit a downturn and last night we saw what may have been the start as they lost 6-3 to the Islanders. While you must tip your cap to an expansion franchise that starts its inaugural season w/ eight wins in its first nine games, note the VERY friendly scheduling they received. The team had played seven straight times in Sin City prior to last night and six of its first nine games overall were against non-playoff teams from a year ago. Two were against league-worst Arizona. Something else I made mention of in yday's analysis was that the Knights' extraordinary shooting percentage so far (15.6% L5 games!). That's bound to start coming down, plus the team's current goaltending situation is in major flux. As you can tell, I'm on the other side Tuesday. 

The other side here would be the Rangers, who are off to an ugly 3-7-2 start and in last place in the Metro. Their latest loss came Saturday, 5-4 at Montreal. Truly stunning is that the Blueshirts have played the majority of their games at home so far and yet have such a poor overall record. They're 3-4-2 at MSG, which is admittedly better than their 0-3 road record. They were badly outshot Saturday by the Habs (43-26), but I was at least impressed by the way they fought back from an early 3-0 deficit to tie the game at 4-4. One good thing is that they are 34-22 the L3 seasons following a game where they allowed 4+ goals. All three wins this year have come in this situation.

Let's be sure to remember that last season saw the Rangers finish w/ 102 points. I simply refuse to believe they've fallen as hard as it appears here in the early going. One of the big issues so far is the shockingly poor play of Henrik Lundqvist, whose save percentage (.900) and goals against average (3.11) this season are well below his career marks. But after being given the L2 games off, I expect a big bounce back performance from "Henrik The Great" between the pipes tonight. Meanwhile, Vegas is down to its FOURTH string goaltender here as Marc-Andre Fleury remains out (concussion) as is Malcolm Subban (lower-body injury). The team's third-string option, Oscar Dansk, was a recent AHL call-up, but he too suffered a lower-body injury last night. That leaves Maxime Legace as the team's only real option left and he did not look good when called into duty last night, giving up four goals on just 11 shots. Vegas has been a great story so far, but I have a feeling that reality is about to set in. 8* NY Rangers

8* San Jose (1:05 ET): Hopefully the Sharks players have adjusted their "body clocks" as it's an early start time for them Saturday (10 AM Pacific!). Fortunately though, the opposition will be Buffalo, a team that has struggled mightily in the early part of the season. The Sabres, coming off a 5-1 loss at Columbus on Wednesday, are 3-6-2 so far and rank in the bottom six in both goals scored (27th) and against (26th). They've have had this strange dominance over the Sharks through the years (including 12-2 mark here at home!), but I'll call for that to end here as San Jose (only 8 points so far) is a team you should expect to start playing better moving forward.

The Sharks are also in off a loss, 2-1 at Boston, Thursday night. They did outshoot the Bruins (37-33), but were just 1 for 6 on the power play. That drops them to an unfortunate 1 for their last 16 w/ the man advantage. I have to think that number is going to start to improve. Even worse is that they allowed a short-handed goal against the Bruins, which was the difference in the game. That shouldn't happen again here. The other part of special teams, penalty killing, has been no issue for the Sharks as they've killed off 15 straight and rank 4th overall in the league at 89.5%. Martin Jones is a fine goaltender that comes in w/ a .968 save percentage in three road starts thus far. This is the finale of a five-game Eastern trip for San Jose after splitting the first four games. They are a perfect 2-0 this season following a game where they scored 1 goal or less (and 24-15 in that role the L3 seasons). 

Buffalo is giving up plenty of shots and plenty of goals so far. They allowed 38 shots in the loss to Columbus Wednesday, a game in which they fell behind 4-0 after two periods. Goaltending has not been a strong suit here w/ Chad Johnson posting an .879 save percentage overall. Robin Lehner is the more likely starter for tonight, but he's only at .913. While San Jose ranks in the top 10 overall in both areas of special teams, the Sabres are 26th on the power play and 15th in penalty killing. They've also given up a league-high six shorthanded goals this season. Another bad sign is that the team hasn't gotten a single goal from a defensemen yet. Here at home, they are averaging only 1.7 goals per game. 8* San Jose

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Typically, I will place more weight on a team's scoring differential than its actual won-loss record as I believe the former metric to be a far better predictor of future results than the latter. (This goes for any sport) But in the case of the Penguins, I'll make an exception. Yes. they've been outscored by eight goals this season, but that's owed to one singular loss, a stunning 10-1 loss at Chicago which is still skewing things. Needless to say, the Pens won't suffer another loss that bad all season and since then, they've managed to go 6-2, including a win over Edmonton on Tuesday. Tonight, they welcome in another Canadian opponent, that being Winnipeg, who will be remarkably rested here having not played a game since 10.20. But rest alone won't be enough to help the Jets overcome some pretty severe disadvantages in this contest.

Pittsburgh actually has two bad losses this year, as they were beaten 7-1 by Tampa Bay on Saturday. But take that and the Chicago game away, and you're left w/ a 6-1-1 team that's outscored opponents by seven goals. As they did from the Chicago loss, the Pens responded well after being beaten by Tampa Bay, outlasting Edmonton in overtime Tuesday. They outshot the Oilers 44-30 in the contest, the second time in three games they had at least that many shots. They are top five in the league currently in shots per game and beating Edmonton in low-scoring fashion was impressive given that the Oilers match up relatively well w/ them. The same cannot be said for Winnipeg though; the Jets are one of the slower paced teams in the league and rank 29th in shots per game at 29.3. Expect the Pens' speed to be a huge advantage in this contest. 

Let the rest vs. rust debate commence here as it pertains to Winnipeg. "I personally don't like having this many days between games," defenseman Tyler Myers told the team's website. "When you have this much time off, you want to keep that pace up. That's a big part of our identity with this team. We like to play fast. I think we've been doing a pretty good job of it. We have to make sure with these practice days to keep that pace up." While I don't agree w/ the second part of Myers' quote there (about the team playing fast), I found the first assessment to be telling. Also, since rejoining the league as the Atlanta Thrashers nearly two decades ago, the Jets have had little to no luck against Pittsburgh, especially on the road. They've dropped 23 of 28 visits and are just 15-43 in all matchups w/ the Pens. They're giving up a lot of shots per game too, 34.6 to be precise, which is the sixth most in the league on a per game basis right now. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Chicago (10:05 ET): The expansion team in Vegas is shocking the world early on w/ a 6-1 start to the season. They've won their last three games, all here in "Sin City." But, as easy as it may be to get wrapped up in this "feel good" story, let's take a look at the Golden Knights schedule thus far. It's been quite favorable. The last five games have all taken place at home. They've played mostly non-playoff teams (from last year) including Arizona twice (the Coyotes are the league's only winless team). It's not like many teams have a better goal differential, but at +6, the Knights aren't exactly blowing teams out. Four of the six wins have been of the one goal variety. 

Now Chicago comes to town. They have the second best goal differential in the Western Conference at +10 (Only the Kings are better at +12). Admittedly, they've played nine games (two more than Vegas) and won the opener, 10-1 over Pittsburgh, which is largely responsible for that goal differential. But they still rank in the top seven in both the goals scored and allowed sides of the ledger. They also seem to have the edge in special teams in this matchup as they rank higher on the power play and penalty kill. Both teams are giving up more shots per game than you'd like to see ideally, but at 3.6 goals per game, the Blackhawks just seem better offensively. I'll take their goaltender Corey Crawford (.945 save percentage) over what Vegas has in between the pipes as well.

What Vegas has between the pipes is a big question mark right now. Marc-Andre Fleury is in concussion protocol and his backup Malcom Subban will now be out for at least a month w/ a lower-body injury. This leaves either Oscar Dansk or Maxime Lagace, a recent AHL call-up, as the only netminders. Both are obviously unproven. Three of the Golden Knights' victories have come in overtime. So let's not annoint this team anything special just yet. We know who the Blackhawks are, and that's the better team here. 8* Chicago

8* Buffalo (7:05 ET): The Sabres are struggling - mightily - to start this season, but I think a visit from a Vancouver team caught in the second game of a back to back should cure what ails them. Buffalo's 1-4-2 start has included five road games, the last four of which all took place out West. While they finally got off the proverbial "schnide" at Anaheim, an OT loss at Vegas was certainly not the way they hoped to end the trip. Still, I was impressed w/ the way they rallied back from a 4-1 deficit in that game and they did outshoot the Golden Knights 34-31. The team has dropped both of its home games thus far, but like I said earlier Vancouver is not a good road team as their 12-26-3 mark last year was second worst in the entire league. The Canucks did begin this Eastern trek of theirs w/ a 3-0 shutout of Ottawa, but lost last night in Boston, 6-3.

Last night's game in Beantown was never really competitive as the Canucks fell behind 4-1 after one period, giving up the four goals in a seven minute span (three on the power play). It was the team's fourth loss in five games and they have yet to score more than three goals in any game this year (rank 26th in goals per game). This projected to be one of the worst teams in the league coming into the year and a big reason for that was the lack of firepower as LY they ranked 29th in goals per game. They lean far too heavily on the Sedin twins. Not to mention, they were also 24th in goals allowed last year. With this being the second game of a B2B, it's unclear who will be in goal - Jacob Markstrom or Anders Nilsson - as the latter was pulled early last night. Truth be told, neither is a particularly appetizing option as Markstrom has an .887 save percentage his L4 appearances.

It's very early in the season, but this one is almost a "must win" for the home team as it's a quick turnaround to play at Boston tomorrow night. It terms of the oddsmakers, this game marks the most prohibitive of a favorite the Sabres have been installed as to date. Defensively, they have struggled, but as discussed earlier, Vancouver is a weak offensive team. If the Sabres are unable to beat a bad, unrested team at home, the outlook could begin to get REALLY bleak in a hurry here in upstate New York. This is a franchise desperate for some modicum of success, so I believe they'll target this game as a "golden" opportunity to try and turn things around. Yes, it's a pretty high price range for a team that's dropped six of seven to open the year, but my own power rankings suggest that they should be even higher on the money line! Vancouver is a woeful 21-45 the L3 seasons coming off a non-conference game. 8* Buffalo

full analysis soon

10* Chicago (8:05 ET): It appears as if the "demise" of the Blackhawks has been greatly exaggerated. Coming into the season, questions were being raised about whether or not the "aging" core of this team was getting too old to compete at a high level. So much for that line of thinking. Through six games, they have the best goal differential in the league (+12) and are on top of the Central Division. St. Louis started fast, by winning their first four games, but a trip through Florida quickly put a halt to that. The Blues fell in both Florida and Tampa Bay, managing only three goals in the process. I feel as if the wrong team is favored on the money line here.

Both sides are certainly well-rested coming into this important early season divisional matchup. Neither has played since Saturday. That's when the Blues lost to the Lightning (2-1) and the Blackhawks beat the Preds by the same score. So far, Chicago is top three in both goals scored and allowed. They aren't even getting much help from a power play which ranks 23rd and should start to improve now that Nick Schmaltz is set to return. Even though it required OT, beating the Preds was huge for Chicago after being swept by them in LY's playoffs. Doing it in low-scoring fashion was also a good sign as they won a game in which they'd been shutout until late in the third period. Goalie Corey Crawford has been outstanding in the early going w/ a .960 save percentage and while that figures to go down, so too does the number of shot attempts he'll face. 

St. Louis has played only one home game thus far, which makes their strong start all the more impressive. But they've played only one Western Conference team to this point and are being outshot on a per game basis. In fact, their lone home game thus far - a 4-2 win over Dallas - saw them get outshot on nearly a 2:1 basis (40-21). Goaltender Jake Allen has already twice allowed 4+ goals in a game this season. Meanwhile, Chicago has allowed exactly one goal in all four of its victories. The Blues are only 18th in goals scored and 10th in goals allowed. To me, they're a pretty mediocre team. With two more games coming up out West after this one, I'm not sure the rest will be of much benefit, especially if Alexander Steen remains out. 10* Chicago

10* Buffalo (10:05 ET): Let's tip our collective "caps" to the job done by the expansion team in Vegas so far. The Golden Knights are 4-1 and near the top of the Pacific Division, ahead of such preseason favorites as Anaheim and Edmonton. There's also the situation going on in the community in the aftermath of the tragic shooting that took place a few weeks ago. But I don't think anyone expects this fast start to last, as after all, this is an expansion team. Tonight, they are at home (for a fourth straight game) hosting a Buffalo team that has underachieved in the early part of the season. But after picking up their 1st win (in Anaheim) on Sunday, I expect the Sabres to finish off this road trip w/ two more points at the Golden Knight's expense.

Sooner or later, the Sabres have to make a leap up the Atlantic Division pecking order. It's a relatively wide open division and adding "insult to injury" is that Toronto is making that leap right now. Like the Maple Leafs, the Sabres are a team that has struggled for years, but has gotten an infusion of young talent. Unlike the Leafs though, that young talent has yet to take shape here. But the 3-1 win in Anaheim was perhaps a nice start. Goalie Chad Johnson stopped 25 shots and the penalty kill was a perfect 4 for 4. Helping "explain" the Sabres' poor start is the fact they've allowed FIVE short-handed goals, a league-high, thus far. That can't happen and fortunately isn't likely to continue. Jack Eichel is of course a solid foundation here to build around. 

There could be an issue for Vegas in goal here as Marc-Andre Fleury is still battling concussion issues and thus could miss this game. P.K. Subban started in his place Sunday vs. Boston and performed admirably, stopping 21 of 22 shots. But considering he has just three career starts under his belt, I'm not sure he can be counted on a regular basis. Even if Fleury does go here, he only posted a .867 save percentage in his first two home starts (ugly!) and was the one who gave up six goals in the team's only loss so far (to Detroit). The bottom line is I just don't expect the Golden Knights to continue winning at the current rate, while the Sabres should get better. That's reflected in the ML here, which I happen to think isn't nearly high enough. 10* Buffalo

6* Ottawa (7:35 ET): The Senators have not only yet to drop a game in regulation this year, but they also own the Eastern Conference's best goal differential at +10. They just swept a three-game trek through the Western provinces, the first time they've done that in franchise history! It was a dominant two-game performance in Alberta as they outscored Edmonton and Calgary by a combined 12-1 margin (won 6-1 and 6-0 respectively). But the trip also started w/ a 3-2 win (shootout) in Vancouver. Now it's time to take care of business against the Canucks at home. That game in Vancouver saw the Sens hold a decided edge in shots (42-28), something that was the case for them in each of the first four games. Not only leading the league in goals allowed per game (1.6), Ottawa is also #1 in penalty killing (100%!). They should dominate this lesser foe on home ice.

Vancouver came into the season projected to be one of the worst teams in the entire league. They did pull a big surprise on Opening Night, upsetting Edmonton 3-2, but that was at home as have been each of the team's first four contests. The Canucks were a dreadful team on the road last year (12-26-3) w/ only the league-worst Avs able to claim a worse record. It is a virtual lock that they will finish either in last or second to last in the Pacific this year (should be a "battle" w/ Arizona). In addition to losing to them at home last week, the Canucks were also swept by the Senators last season, failing to score a single goal in either game. Given how stingy Ottawa has been in the early going this season, it figures to again be a struggle for the Canucks to find the back of the net tonight.

The Sens opened the season w/ B2B home games (against Washington & Detroit). Like the win at Vancouver, both went to shootouts. But the difference was they lost the two at home. Call it the "just due" factor, but I can't see them opening the season by losing their first three home games. Especially now that Erik Karlsson, the two-time Norris Trophy winner, is set to finally hit the ice for the 1st time this season. The fact Ottawa performed as well as they did w/o Karlsson is pretty remarkable as his head coach (Guy Boucher) went so far as to call him "the best player in the world." Vancouver's power play is only 2 for 23 this year, so it figured to struggle anyway in this game. Consider that in Saturday's 5-2 loss to the Flames, they had five 1st period PP chances and not only came up empty, but were actually outscored 1-0 even though one of those PP's was 5 on 3!  Compared to the Sens, the Canucks aren't nearly as healthy w/ defenseman Alex Edler and winger Lou Eriksson both out here. 6* Ottawa

10* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): The Red Wings finished in last place in the Atlantic Division last season (79 points) and really, it could have been a lot uglier if not for an almost unfathomable 9-0 record in shootouts! But coming off their first non-playoff season in a quarter century, you had to figure they'd improve some and they've started out 4-1 w/ three of the wins coming on the road. But it's not exactly been the most daunting schedule thus far as the last three opponents were all non-playoff teams from a year ago and that included visits to Arizona and Vegas. Though they've had the last two days off, I think their could be a residual effect coming off that long road trip (which took them from Ottawa to Dallas to the desert) and it's a significant step up in class tonight.

Tampa Bay is also 4-1, though most of their games have been at home. That being said, they already own victories against Washington, Pittsburgh and St. Louis. Saturday's win over the Blues might have been the first time this high-scoring outfit failed to reach four goals in a game this year, but beating a team that had started 4-0 is nice any way you can get it. Remember that the Lightning are also due for a bounce back up in the Atlantic Division standings after they failed to make the playoffs last season. But that was due to injury as opposed to lack of talent. I would not be surprised - at all - to see the Lightning win the division this year. Meanwhile, the Red Wings would be lucky to even make the playoffs. TB has dominated Detroit the previous two seasons, winning 11 of 14 matchups.

Nikita Kucherov is the player to watch right now for the Lightning as he's scored in all five games. No player has started a season like that since the Sharks' Patrick Marleau five years ago. Andrei Vasilevskiy is firmly entrenched as the starting goalie here (started all five games) and has a solid .911 save percentage. As for Detroit, they've bounced back between Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek. The latter isn't very good and as for the former, I just don't think he'll be able to maintain his current .955 save percentage for much longer. It's interesting that BOTH teams are giving up plenty of shots in the early going. A wide-open game would certainly favor the Lightning, in my estimation. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Florida (7:30 ET): Tip your cap to St. Louis, who has started the season 4-0 w/ three wins on the road. But their goal differential is only +6, so they've hardly been dominant. For the sake of comparison, division rival Chicago (who is 3-0-1) has a goal differential of +14. Furthermore, they are still unbeaten despite being outshot significantly. They are giving up 37.0 shots per game, a really high number that ranks them in the top five. At the same time, the number of shots they are getting off on a per game basis (28.2) is relatively low. So, only Washington and Vancouver are being outshot more on a per game basis. If this continues, it is NOT a recipe for success. 

On the other hand, you have Florida, whose shot per game differential is the BEST in the league right now (+14.5). They're allowing only 27.5, third fewest in the league, while averaging 42.0 per game. Now this comes w/ a caveat in that it's a small sample size (two games) and they've played the same opponent twice. But being the better rested of the two teams here is only more ammunition to like the home side here. This is their first game since Saturday when they beat in-state rival Tampa Bay, 5-4, in the second leg of a home and home. This is a young team that made a lot of changes in the offseason, but there is potential there and one thing that indicates improvement for 2017-18 is the fact that they fell by 22 points in the standings LY. They'll likely finish somewhere in the middle of 2015-16 and 2016-17's point total and challenge for a Wild Card. 

Making St. Louis' start all the more surprising is they are w/o four key contributors on the offensive end of the ice. All four players are going to be out the rest of the month at least and three will be out until December. One (Robby Fabbri) is done for the year. Zach Sanford and Patrik Berglund will both likely be out until December. So a short-handed team continuing to stay unbeaten seems unlikely. Jake Allen has posted a 2.50 GAA in his three starts, but I don't seem him maintaining that. Counterpart Roberto Luongo did not fare as his well in his lone start so far, but at home I expect him to bounce back w/ a solid start here. The last two seasons have seen the Panthers go 10-6 SU when playing w/ at least three days' rest. 10* Florida

8* Los Angeles (10:35 ET): Compared to past years, the Kings came into the 2017-18 season a bit under the radar. That has to do w/ them missing the playoffs twice in the last three seasons, including last year, but the way this team plays hockey (puck possession!) will always be conducive to success. They've started the year w/ a pair of wins, a shut out of the Flyers here at home (I was on them there) and a 4-1 win at rival San Jose. They're well-rested coming into tonight having not played since Saturday. Meanwhile, their opponents find themselves playing on the road for a third time in four games and in the second leg of the "dreaded" California road trip. Interestingly, the Flames WON'T play San Jose, but did upset Anaheim (2-0) on Monday. Calgary was a playoff team last season, but I'm not very high on them this year. In fact, I could see LA replacing them in the playoff field.

Calgary improved from 77 to 94 points last year, so there should be some built in regression here. I was a bit surprised to see their point total at 95.5 a month ago and I'm firmly on the 'Under' in this one. The last two times the Flames have made the postseason, they've looked severly outgunned by the opposition. Now they're banking on the goaltending and blue line to carry them this year, which I suppose isn't a terrible strategy. This franchise has not had consistent, strong play between the pipes for some time now. So I understand the optimism surrounding Mike Smith being brought into the fold. In three starts thus far, Smith has posted a superb .957 save percentage, stopping 110 of 115 shots. But that's a lot of shots he's been facing (avg of 38.7 per game!). They were outshot 43-29 in Anaheim Monday, so that certainly qualifies as a fortunate two points there.

The Kings were outshot here at home by the Flyers in the season opener (still won 2-0), but then came back to keep the Sharks in check (38-25 edge in shots) in the 4-1 victory there. Having allowed just one goal in two games, it looks as if the "old" Jonathan Quick is back between the pipes here. Remember, he missed significant time due to injury last year (played in only 17 games) and that had a huge negative effect on the team's season. Take note that Calgary allowed a total of six goals in its first two games. That win in Anaheim could also lend itself to a letdown as it marked the 1ST time in the last 25 reg season visits that they won there! Playing at home when the O/U line is 5.5 doesn't happen very often for the Kings, but when it does, they're a deadly 9-1 the L3 seasons. 8* Los Angeles

6* Dallas (8:35 ET): Though it's still (really) early, I'm quite surprised how both of these teams have started the season. Sure, coming off their worst campaign in ages, one could make a case for the Red Wings to improve in 2017. But the fact remains that they should have been even WORSE last year. Had it not been for a somewhat miraculous 9-0 record in shootouts, they would have undoubtedly finished in last place in the Atlantic. As for Dallas, they too are due for turnaround as last season saw them fall from the top of the Central (were the West's #1 seed in 2015-16) to 79 points (same as Red Wings!) and out of the playoffs a year ago. I'm a bigger believer in Dallas bouncing back this year, so considering the respective starts, I'm on them here.

Detroit is 2-0, having beaten the Wild and Senators. They were ML dogs for both contests and outshot in both contests (giving up an average of 38.5 shots per game). Of course, the win in Ottawa came via a shootout (is there any other way for this team?). Something to keep in mind from that game is the Senators were w/o captain Erik Karlsson and that had a definite impact on their power play, which went a wretched 0 for 7 including 0 for 4 in the 1st period alone where they managed just six shots. Goalie Jimmy Howard has been bailing the Wings out so far, but he can only carry this team so far as they lack depth and made little improvement in the offseason.

Dallas is 0-2, which is unfortunate considering they've dramatically outshot both opponents. The season started w/ a brutal 2-1 loss in Vegas, despite the PK going 7 for 7. Nothing like starting the year w/ a loss to an expansion team. Then, the following night, they had to go to St. Louis and lost 4-2 despite nearly a 2:1 edge in shots on goal. Having averaged 43 shots per game so far, I have to imagine the goals will start coming as scoring has never been an issue for this team. Opposing goaltenders posting a .965 save percentage against them is simply not sustainable. As for goaltending, that has long been an issue for the Stars, but they brought in Ben Bishop this offseason and that should lead to better play there. Note Bishop was not between the pipes against St. Louis as it was the 2nd game of a back to back and he left the opener w/ a concussion. His leaving the game vs. Vegas is what made the final result so brutal there as he had stopped all 19 shots he saw before leaving. Cleared to return, he'll lead the Stars to their first victory of the season here. 6* Dallas

8* Nashville (8:05 ET): The Predators obviously came into 2017-18 w/ plenty of hype based on LY's run to the Stanley Cup Finals. Unfortunately, they've opened 0-2 w/ losses to Boston and Pittsburgh, the latter a Stanley Cup rematch that didn't go the Preds' way - at all (lost 4-0). But tonight marks the home opener as they will raise the Western Conference Championship banner. While the Preds were actually a sub-.500 team on the road last year in the regular season, they were much better at home and went 9-2 SU at Bridgestone Arena during the postseason run. So, expect them to handle Philadelphia, a non-playoff team from last year that is off to a somewhat surprising 2-1 SU start. This will be the Flyers' fourth consecutive road game to open the year. 

Furthermore, Philly is coming off the dreaded "California trip" which saw them play the Sharks, Kings and Ducks all in a four-day span. They pulled out surprising wins in both San Jose and Anaheim, but if you recall, I faded them in LA and the result there was a shutout by the Kings. So once again, I'll fade them off a win. They did outshoot Anaheim 37-23 on Saturday, but needed OT to pull out the 3-2 win. After scoring three power play goals in the season opener, the Flyers are now 0 for 10 the last two games. I'm just not sold on this team for this season. They allowed the 4th most goals in the East a season ago and I'm not entirely sure Brian Elliot represents any kind of upgrade between the pipes. Though they rolled out four lines against Anaheim, depth isn't a strong suit here.

As for Nashville, I fully expect them to turn things around and compete for the Central Division title. They opener their season w/ a pair of tough road games, so really it's not a shock that they're 0-2. The Stanley Cup rematch in Pittsburgh obviously did not go well, but keep in mind they started Juuse Saros in that one, not Pekka Rinne (who is winless in six career starts in Pittsburgh w/ an .822 save percentage). Rinne will be back between the pipes tonight. He posted a 1.96 GAA and .930 save percentage in leading his team to the Cup Finals last Spring and like his team, is always a bit sharper on home ice. The Preds are 26-17 the L2 seasons after scoring 1 goal or less the previous game. As for the Flyers, they are 7-13 SU after playing three straight road games. 8* Nashville

6* Boston (1:05 ET): While the Red Sox will be fighting to keep their season alive over at Fenway Park this afternoon, the Bruins' season is just getting started here at TD North Bank Garden. Actually, they already won their home opener, 4-3 over Nashville on Thursday, an impressive win considering how far the Preds made it in LY's Playoffs (lost to Pittsburgh in Stanley Cup Finals). I like this spot even more for them. It may be early in the season still, but this is not a great situation for Colorado, who is playing its third straight game out East in just a five-day span. While the Avs did surprise in their season opener (beat the Rangers 4-2), they lost Sat afternoon in New Jersey by a score of 4-1. By every objective measure, the Avs were the worst team in the league a year ago.

There's only one way to go and that's "up" for Colorado ins 2017-18. They finished last in the league goals scored, last in goals allowed and had the fewest points in the league (48) w/ a -112 goal differential. Note that was 20 pts fewer than the second worst team in league (Arizona), a shocking margin when you consider the difference between the Yotes' and those teams that just missed making the playoffs was roughly the same. The Avs' goal differential was nearly twice as bad as every other team. So while they can only go "up" this season, keep in mind that's a relative term as the oddsmakers had them pegged for only 69.5 points, which is right where Arizona was at last year. Bottom line is that I don't see the Avs winning twice on this early East Coast swing. 

I thought Boston should have finished w/ a better record last season as they - rather easily - led the league in shots per game differential at +6.4. Only the Kings (who ironically didn't even make the playoffs) even finished close to that number as only one of the other 28 teams was above +3.0 per game. Back on Thursday, they outshot Nashville 32-29 and didn't even allow a shot on goal until the 7:35 mark of the first period. With a couple of key contributors out, the Bruins' younger talent stepped up to handle the goal-scoring load, a great sign moving forward. Something that I find shocking is that Colorado has won 10 of its last 11 visits to Beantown, including a 4-2 win last year (were outshot 31-22). That streak comes to a definitive end today, however. The Avs have allowed 39 shots in both games so far and Tuukka Rask provides a clear edge in goal for the home team. 6* Boston

8* Los Angeles (10:05 ET): Tough early season spot for the Flyers here as they are playing in the second of B2B road games, out on the West Coast. They did win last night, 5-3 in San Jose, but two straight upsets seems unlikely. After all, this was not a playoff team a year ago as they finished fifth in the Metro, well behind the top four. There were struggles on both ends of the ice w/ the team ranking fifth from the bottom in save percentage (.901). Brian Elliott 32 saves in his debut last night, but it was a hat trick from Wayne Simmonds that was the real key to victory. Don't look for Simmonds to go off again here however and I'm not sure Elliott can be as stout for a second straight game. This is the Kings' season opener and I feel they come into 2017-18 somewhat undervalued.

LA didn't make the playoffs either last season, turning in one of their worst campaigns in some time. It was actually the second time in three seasons that they failed to make the playoffs and they ranked second to last in the West w/ only 127 even-strength goals. Both Anaheim and Edmonton have clearly passed them in the Pacific pecking order and offense again figures to be somewhat of a concern this year. But the team is always one of the league-leaders in puck possession and we should see far better goaltening this year w/ a full season of Jonathan Quick. Remember that this club is just three years removed from winning its second Stanley Cup in three years. Nine players remain from those two championship teams. Both Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty should enjoy bounce back years.

The Flyers were not a good road team last season, losing 27 of 41 games and getting outscored by nearly a full goal per game. So the likelihood of them winning two straight to start the season seems small, especially out on the West Coast. The team's record is a losing one when playing w/out rest the L2 seasons. They are also just 16-24 SU coming off a win by 2+ goals. Note that three of their five goals last night, including two from Simmonds, came via the power play. I feel this team lacks depth at the forward position and Claude Giroux is coming off the worst statistical season of his career (career-lows in both goals and points). Whomever ends up in goal for the Flyers here (Elliott or Michael Neuvirth) won't be as good as Quick, who still posted a .922 save percentage at home LY in what was considered a "down year." 8* Los Angeles

10* Nashville (8:05 ET): After a ridiculously easy winner w/ Pittsburgh in Game 5 (6-0!), it's back to Nashville for Game 6. Remember, I cashed the Predators as my *10* Game of the Year back in Game 3. So I certainly have shown a willingness to pivot back and forth between the two teams. At this point, the reason for going back and forth should be fairly clear. It's been "all about" home ice as I shouldn't have to tell you the home team is a perfect 5-0 in the series so far. The player who has been most drastically affected by venue is arguably the most important one, that being Preds' netminder Pekka Rinne. In the three games in Pittsburgh, he's been a complete disaster, allowing 11 goals on just 45 shots. He was chased from Game 5 after allowing three on the first nine shots he saw. All three games in Pittsburgh have seen Rinne allow a flurry of three goals in a condensed period of time, thereby sinking his team's chances.

But in the two games here in "Smashville," Rinne resembled the dominant goaltender we saw in each of the first three rounds of the playoffs. Rinne came into the Stanley Cup Finals sporting a remarkable .941 save percentage for the entire playoffs, which would have been a record had it stood. Therefore, I can't say I'm all that surprised to see him having regressed on this stage. But there's no denying he was the difference maker in both Games 3 and 4 where he stopped 50 out of a possible 52 shots. Something else that should be pointed out is Pittsburgh has yet to outshoot Nashville in a single game in this series. Shots were actually dead even in Game 5 (24-24). Through the first four games, the Preds had a commanding 123-91 edge in that department. A case could be made that despite the series deficit, it is they who have looked like the better team the majority of time. 

Pittsburgh has given up far too many shots this season and I'm still wondering if that catches up w/ them. During the regular season, they allowed the fourth most in the league and they've allowed a similar average (32.0 per game) in the playoffs. (They were also outshot in all seven games in the Washington series). Goalie Matt Murray sees his save percentage slip a bit on the road (allowed 9 goals in Games 3 & 4) and that's also reflected in his won-loss record. Nashville comes in at 14-7 SU this year following a game where they scored one goal or less. Look for them to force a deciding Game 7. 10* Nashville

10* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET): A sharp line move has set off "alarm bells" for me here. Yes, I know the Pens have been outshot in all four games in this series (they were also outshot in all seven games by the Caps!) and were thoroughly dominated in the two games at Nashville (lost 5-1, 4-1). However, a return back to the Steel City should turn the tide. No team in the league suffered fewer regulation losses at home during the regular season and here in the playoffs, they've been beaten just three times here (twice by Washington). On the road, I expect Preds goaltender Pekka Rinne to regress and lest I remind you that Pittsburgh is the top goal scoring team in the league this year. 

Games 1 and 2 here in Pittsburgh were among the strangest we've seen this postseason. The Penguins scored a total of nine times despite a total of just 39 shots, only 12 of those coming in Game 1 where they scored five times. Questions about Rinne began to arise after the two losses, but at home he quickly bounced back w/ a pair of strong performances. He now carries a .932 playoff save percentage into Game 5, but it's worth noting that for the year he's been slightly worse on the road. Imagine what could happen to him if the Pens were able to get their "usual" number of shots on goal (33.9 per game at home). Something else to note is Pittsburgh is 23-11 SU after allowing 4+ goals the previous game while Nashville is 13-21 SU after scoring 4+ goals its previous game. Those trends did not hold for Game 4, but will they really be wrong two straight times? 

Even with this great playoff run of theirs, the eighth-seeded Predators still are only 22-29 SU on the road this year. Lost in all the Rinne headlines is that his counterpart, Matt Murray, has outplayed him in the series. Murray's save percentage is .902 while Rinne's is .886. The Pens have also been incredible at home this year w/ Murray between the pipes, winning 21 of 26 times. This is also just the second time this postseason that the Pens have dropped B2B games. The last time was in the Washington series, then they won Game 7 on the road. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Nashville (8:05 ET): What was expected to be a tightly contested Stanley Cup Finals has the Penguins up 2-0, yet ironically they have been outplayed - some would say badly - in both games. The Predators hold a sizable 64-39 edge in shots so far, which would indicate a certain level of dominance. However, in another bit of irony, what was perceived to be their one big "ace in the hole" in this series - goaltender Pekka Rinne - has let them down, big time. Rinne was actually chased from Game 2 after giving up three third period goals. In both games of the series, Rinne has allowed three goals in a period and that is why the Preds find themselves in this 0-2 hole. Remember, he came into the Cup Finals sporting a .941 save percentage for the playoffs. Now with things shifting to "Smashville," I look for Rinne to rediscover past form and for the Preds to finally notch a win. 

Outshooting the Penguins 26-12 in Game 1 should have led to a victory for Nashville. They held Pittsburgh w/o a shot for a 37-minute stretch. But digging themselves into a 3-0 hole after one period proved costly. Note they did rally back to tie that game before giving up the game winner w/ just over three minutes remaining in regulation. (Pittsburgh would add an empty-netter for a 5-3 final). In Game 2, Nashville again looked like the better team, but was still locked in a 1-1 tie entering the third period. Then the dam broke w/ the Pens scoring three times in the first 3:28. That was when Rinne got pulled. As rough as the series has been so far, Rinne does have a .925 save percentage at home for the season and the team is 28-14 SU on home ice w/ him in goal. In rolling through the first three rounds of these playoffs, the Predators dropped only one home game (out of a possible eight) and the loss came in OT. 

The edge in shots on goal for the Preds is key. If there's one concern I've had w/ Pittsburgh all year, it's the number of shots allowed. In the regular season, they gave up the fourth most at 32.6 per game. They've been right at that average here in the playoffs. After Marc-Andre Fleury began to slip in the Eastern Conference Finals, Matt Murray has come on to bail the team out. But how long can he continue to do so when the team is being so drastically outshot? This is the 1st time in the playoffs that Nashville is off B2B losses. They are 13-7 SU this year after being held to one goal or less the previous game. Pittsburgh has not only been outshot drastically in both games of this series, they were outshot in EVERY game of the Washington series and have actually been outshot in all but six (out of possible 21) games this postseason! 10* Nashville

10* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET): Given my overall view of the Senators throughout this postseason, this play should not come as much of a shock if you've been following me for any length of time. Ottawa was the ONLY playoff team to get outscored during the regular season. They ranked just 22nd in goals scored, 23rd on the power play and 22nd in penalty killing. Basically, they profiled as a below average team coming into the playoffs. But somehow they've been able to get past the Bruins and the Rangers and now find themselves in a winner take all scenario against the far more talented Penguins. That can be explained by the fact that 9 of their 11 playoff wins have been by one goal, six of those coming in overtime. They've actually been outscored here in the playoffs (-2) as well. I'm calling for the Penguins to advance to their second straight Stanley Cup Final. 

The last game here in Pittsburgh (Sunday) saw the home team drub the Sens, 7-0. But there was a somewhat predictable letdown on the road in Game 6 as they fell up in Ottawa, 2-1. Still though, the Pens outshot the Senators in that game, 46-30. Needless to say, it was a much different Craig Anderson than we saw in Game 5. My one concern w/ Pittsburgh this season has been the # of shots allowed, but they've done a good job in that department, allowing an average of only 26.6 per game the L5 games. At the same time, they've averaged 34.4 per game themselves. Despite what happened in Game 6, I still give Matt Murray the edge over Anderson between the pipes. The Pens won the first two games w/ Murray in net as he stopped 49 of 51 shots. 

While trends show that there is no real home ice advantage in Game 7's of the NHL Playoffs, I absolutely think there is one here. Ottawa has NEVER won a Game 7 in franchise history (0-5) and is playing in a place where they've won just one time in the last seven tries. Furthermore, the Penguins are 36-13 SU at home this year, outscoring opponents by more than a full goal per game. The money line says it all for this matchup as I believe Ottawa's improbable playoff run comes to an end Thursday night. 10* Pittsburgh 

6* Pittsburgh (3:00 ET): Finally, the Penguins were able to get off to a good start in this series as they won Game 4 in Ottawa, 3-2. Sidney Crosby and what was the league's highest scoring offense in the regular season will always grab the headlines in Pittsburgh, but to me, the change between the pipes to Matt Murray was the impetus for the relatively easy Game 4 victory Friday night. Though the Senators did fight back to make it a one-goal game late in the third period, with Murray in goal, it was over as soon as the Pens went up 3-0 midway through the second. Just to reiterate what I've been saying about Ottawa throughout this postseason ... they are the ONLY playoff team that was outscored during the regular season. All but two playoff wins have come by a one-goal margin w/ six of the 10 wins coming in overtime. For the first time, look for the Pens to grab the series lead as they win Sunday afternoon. 

Let's talk more about Murray, shall we? Marc-Andre Fleury was pulled in Game 3 after a disastrous first period in which he allowed four goals on nine shots, paving the way for the goalie change. Murray has come in and since stopped 43 of the 46 shots he's faced. I think it's important to remember that Murray was the team's top netminder in the regular season. Here at home, the team was quite successful when he was the one between the pipes. They won 17 of his 22 home starts and a lot of that has to do w/ the goaltender's .923 save percentage here. Pittsburgh's one real issue, allowing too many shot attempts, seems to have actually rectified itself in this series. They've gone three straight games w/o allowing 30 shots, which is well under their season average.

Ottawa has yet to trail in a series this postseason, but they now find themselves playing in a venue where the home team has gone 35-13 SU this season. I am still waiting for the "other shoe" (skate?) to drop w/ goalie Craig Anderson, who in my opinion has been playing "over his head" this postseason. Back to Pittsburgh, the numbers indicate Murray is the better goaltender than Fleury and that they are - clearly - the better team on paper. I look for the defending champs to take one step closer to another Stanley Cup Finals. 6* Pittsburgh

10* Nashville (7:15 ET): The Predators outshot the Ducks in each of the first three games of this series and very nearly "stole one" in Game 4, rallying late to to score two late goals before ultimately losing in overtime. Still, I believe they've proven themselves to be the "better team" in the Western Conference Finals and thus they make for a great value at 'plus money' here in an all-important Game 5. Sure, I've made the case that Anaheim has a great home ice edge in previous write-ups, but those spots came against inferior opposition. Here, I feel they've met their match and it should be noted that the Preds have not lost B2B games this entire postseason.

Now there is an issue for Nashville and it's a big one as they are going to be w/o their leading scorer, Ryan Johansen, the rest of the way. This is a key loss, especially if the team's #2 center (Mike Fisher) also remains out. But they still have Pekka Rinne between the pipes and that might be all that matters. Rinne is having himself a sensational Stanley Cup Playoffs w/ a league best 1.66 goals against average and .940 save percentage. He was under his heaviest fire in Game 4, but still stopped 34 of 37 shots. 

Ever since storming back to take a 3-2 series lead against Edmonton in the last round (that was after dropping the first two games here at home), the Ducks have alternated wins and losses over the L6 games. Though goaltender John Gibson has posted a .935 save percentage in the series, I still do not trust him as much as I do Rinne in this situation. The Ducks have been badly outshot in their two losses in this series and four of their last five victories here in the playoffs have been by just one goal, three of those coming in overtime. They were very fortunate not to blow Game 4 in Nashville after Gibson let in two late third period goals, one in the final minute of regulation. Again, this is a great value on the better team. 10* Nashville

10* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET): Have I conducted one of the great misreads on a team in recent memory? Coming into the Stanley Cup Playoffs, I felt that it would be a rather short stay for the Senators and why not? They were the ONLY playoff team to be outscored during the regular season. But, despite this key fact, they have already ousted both the Bruins and Rangers and now lead the defending Stanley Cup Champions two games to one here in the Eastern Conference Final. Game 3 on Wednesday, clearly, marked Ottawa's best performance of this entire postseason. They stormed out to a 4-0 lead in the first period and never had to look back (won 5-1). Other than the close out game of the Rangers series (when they scored an empty netter in the closing seconds to win 4-2), that was the 1st time the Sens won a game by more than one goal in the playoffs! I'm sticking to my guns here and siding with Pens.

If there is a legit problem that can be cited for Pittsburgh, it's that they've now been outshot in 11 of the past 12 games (29-26 in Game 3). Looking back to the regular season, they actually gave up the third most shots in the league (32.6 per game), but that didn't matter much as the led the league in scoring (3.4 goals/game) and were also #3 on the power play (23.1 percent). Now with their scoring "drying up," this has become an issue. Shockingly, they have been held to just one goal in every game of this series and have scored two or fewer in six straight games. This is without question the "coldest" we've seen this offense go all year. Again though, I'm willing to put my money on them breaking through. There's simply no way they'll play as poorly as they did in Game 3, the first period specifically.

The key question coming into Game 4 is who will be in goal for the Penguins? Marc-Andre Fleury was yanked after the disastrous first period in Game 3 and going to Matt Murray here wouldn't be a terrible idea given Fleury's now .891 save percentage on the road this season. The team has played a lot better on the road w/ Murray (16-9 SU) between the pipes as opposed to Fleury (8-15 SU). Either way though, I'm on the favorite here. Maybe I'm being too stubborn, but I refuse to believe a mediocre outfit like Ottawa can keep this run up for much longer. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET): Ottawa got a "taste of its own medicine" in Game 2, losing by one goal. Eight of the team's nine postseason wins have come by that same margin and the only reason that tally isn't 9 for 9 is because they scored an empty-netter in the closing seconds of the final game of the Rangers series. Now the Eastern Conference Finals move "North of the Border." Still, I'm siding with Pittsburgh, who has been the better team all season long. Recall that the Senators were outscored over the course of the regular season. Even in making it this far in the playoffs, they are just dead even in goals scored vs. allowed.  Despite the injuries piling up along the blue line for the Penguins, I expect them to simply outscore the opposition here. 

Ottawa has not scored a PP goal since Game 1 of the Rangers series, a span of seven straight games. Do they break through here? Given they ranked only 23rd w/ the man advantage during the regular season, probably not. I also expect goaltender Craig Anderson to begin regressing sooner rather than later. While the return home might offer some semblance of hope, the team is just 3-8 SU this year after playing three or more consecutive road games. They have now been outshot in five of the last seven games too. 

Pittsburgh was the #1 offensive ranked team in the regular season, so it's only a matter of time before they get going. . Going back to the end of the Washington series, they've now been held to two goals or fewer in five consecutive games as well as six of the last seven. But Game 2 saw shots 29-23 in their favor, snapping a streak of 10 consecutive games getting outshot. A power play which has not scored in the last four games (0 for 11) will break through tonight if afforded the opportunity. To me, this is a great price on the vastly superior side. 10* Pittsburgh

6* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET): It sure appeared that the heavily favored Penguins came out "flat" for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Perhaps it has something to do with the "voodoo" Ottawa has been able to launch on its opponents this posteason as a team that was outscored during the regular season is now just three wins away from the Stanley Cup Finals! The Senators have certainly "shown me" in the playoffs, but I'm by no means set to jump on board the bandwagon. The 2-1 Game 1 victory marked the EIGHTH win by one goal in the playoffs, six of those coming in overtime! The one time they managed to win by more than one goal (close out game vs. Rangers), they scored an empty net goal in the final seconds to win 4-2. I remain steadfast that Pittsburgh is the far superior team here. 

Ottawa did outshoot Pittsburgh in Game 1, but I thought the Pens had better scoring opportunities throughout the game. It is troubling to see the Pens having been outshot in 10 consecutive games, but this is a team that won throughout the regular season despite allowing the fourth most shot attempts per game. They are 34-13 SU on home ice this season and that's after losing two straight times at the Igloo (also lost Game 6 vs. Washington). There was a time late in the regular season when they did drop three consecutive home games, but other than that it never happened at any other point in the regular season. 

I think what happened in Game 1 was a direct result of Pittsburgh coming off a long and arduous series with Washington. I'd expect a bounce back offensively from the highest scoring team in the league in Game 2 after being held to just a single goal Saturday. In goal, Marc Andre Fleury has a 17-8 SU record at home w/ a .931 save percentage. I still trust him more than I do Craig Anderson. As we saw w/ Nashville last night, it's very hard to win B2B games on the road. Pittsburgh did it to Washington in the last round, but I do not see them suffering the same fate here. 6* Pittsburgh

6* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): No matter the price, I'm likely going to be on the Peguins the whole way in this year's Eastern Conference Finals. Really, the oddsmakers can't make the money line high enough as far as I'm concerned. Ottawa is very lucky to be here as all but one of their eight playoff wins have come by one goal and that one was the last one, which saw them score on an empty net in the closing seconds. Five of those wins have come in OT. This was the ONLY playoff team to be outscored during the regular season and they were outshot in all but one game in the series w/ the Rangers. Now you could point to the fact that the Pens were outshot in all seven games by the Capitals, but the fact is that the defending Stanley Cup Champs are clearly the more well-rounded team here. 

Unlike the series against Washington, Pittsburgh won't be dealing with an opponent that can hypothetically match them in scoring. Ottawa finished the regular season just 22nd in goals scored, so them scoring four or more goals three times in the Rangers series came as a total shock. But they are still a far cry from Pittsburgh, who led the league in scoring in the regular season. Ottawa did beat the Pens twice in the regular season, but both wins were at home. In their lone visit here to the Steel City, they conceded eight goals (back in December) and that was their fourth straight loss here. The previous season's lone visit saw them give up six goals. 

Any chance the Senators have in this series hinges on two players, Erik Karlsson and Craig Anderson. Forget about just defensemen, the former has played about as well as any individual in these playoffs so far w/ 13 points in 12 games. But, it's been revealed that he's playing w/ two hairline fractures in his foot and thus you have to wonder how long he can keep up the pace. Anderson has a .927 save percentage in the postseason, but it dipped after the Rangers series and I still give the Penguins the edge between the pipes. Marc Andre-Fleury had a .921 save percentage vs. Washington. This is somewhat uncharted waters for the Senators getting this far while for the Penguins, it's their second year in a row. Off a shutout win, the Pens are 4-1 this season. 6* Pittsburgh

8* Anaheim (9:05 ET): Clearly, this is a less than ideal way for the Ducks to begin this series. They're just two days removed from winning a tough, seven-game series over the Oilers while Nashville has been off for the last four days. But, as I said prior to wins here in Games 5 and 7 of the last series, Anaheim is a really good home team. In fact, they had the fewest regulation losses at home of any team in the Western Conference, a major reason why they own the home ice edge for this Western Conference Final and won the Pacific Division. Thus, I can't help but feel there's some substantial value here on the Ducks. Road underdogs w/ this much time off are actually just 28-47 SU since '05 in the NHL playoffs. 

Sure enough, home ice advantage was the key in all three regular season matchups between the Preds and Ducks. Two of the games were lopsided while the Ducks won the rubber match in a shootout. Both teams were just 17-24 SU in the regular season on the road, tied for the worst such mark among all playoff teams. I think a real key to this game (and series) is Anaheim's edge down the middle of the ice w/ Ryan Getzlaf, who has 15 pts in 11 playoff games. Also, no team left in the playoffs has won a higher percentage of faceoffs than the Ducks. While it's true they had to go the full seven games to eliminate Edmonton, remember they also swept Calgary in the first round. So, in total, they've played just two more games than Nashville this postseason.

Clearly, the headliner for the Predators right now is goaltender Pekka Rinne, who posted a .951 save percentage in the first two series. But might he be bound to regress? I'd answer that in the affirmitive, considering no goaltender in the L20 years has posted a save percentage that high through three rounds. Only four have topped .940. Remember, Anaheim was #3 in the regular season in goals allowed and #4 in penalty killing. The PK had some atypical struggles against the younger, faster Oilers, but I see that unit getting back on track in this series. One final note is that we absolutely should not disregard the "revenge factor" here as the Ducks certainly remember being ousted from LY's playoffs by Nashville, in seven games. 8* Anaheim

10* Anaheim (10:05 ET): While history shows that there's little in the way of a discernable home ice advantage for Game 7's, you have to believe the Ducks are happy to be back in Anaheim following an ugly 7-1 loss at Edmonton in Game 6. The Ducks won the Pacific Division due in large part to suffering the fewest number of home losses in regulation in the Western Conference. They were 29-8-4 here at the Pond, then won both times over Calgary in Rd 1. This series, surprisingly, started out w/ them losing BOTH games at home. But then they took both games up in Edmonton and Game 5 here. The ugly result in Game 6 has severely undervalued them for this winner take all affair as I give them a far greater chance of advancing than the oddsmakers apparently.

Shockingly, the Ducks have lost a Game 7 at home each of the last four seasons. That may also have something to do w/ this generous line. For the series, they have badly outshot the Oilers, mainly due to a incredible 64-38 edge here in Game 5. Now, they did need a miraculous comeback to win that game, but given the shot disparity, one could argue that they badly outplayed their opponent. Shots were dead even (35-35) in Game 6, meaning they're still has not been a game in the series where Edmonton had the edge. Cam Talbot came up big Sunday, but I'm not sure how much I trust him in this situation. Meanwhile, Anaheim is 15-4 this season after allowing 4+ goals in their previous game. It was one disastrous period (1st) that sunk them in Game 6. It's next to impossible to rally back from a five-goal deficit. 

What we saw on Sunday was also highly irregular as the Ducks were 3rd in the league in goals allowed during the regular season and 4th in goals allowed. Goaltender John Gibson should be in line for a bounce back performance tonight given a .932 save percentage at home. For some reason, Gibson has been pretty awful when the Ducks are on the PK, but his save percentage when at even strength in these playoffs is .932 (sound familiar?). That's better than Talbot's. Also, Anaheim is 14-6 this season after being held to one goal or less the previous game. While the Ducks don't have the greatest Game 7 history, they at least have experience in this situation, something that the young Oilers cannot claim. 10* Anaheim

8* NY Rangers (7:35 ET): Admittedly, I'm a bit "scared" of going against the Senators here due to whatever "voodoo" they've managed to concoct over their opponents this postseason. All seven playoff wins thus far have been by exactly a one goal margin w/ five of those coming in overtime. As I've pointed out numerous times, this team was actually outscored during the regular season, which is something you can't say about any other playoff team. They were also a pedestrian 22nd in goals scored. Saturday's 5-4 win over the Rangers marked the 1st time in the series they finished the game w/ an edge in shots on goal. So, what I'm saying here is that the Sens, a very mediocre team, would potentially be a huge underdog in the Eastern Conference Finals against whomever they face (Penguins or Capitals). Let's hope they don't even get there. 

So far, this series has seen the home team go 5-0. Thus, the Rangers have that working in their favor. For them, the real killer was blowing the two goal lead in Game 2 and losing in double overtime. But that's all "water under the bridge" now. As noted earlier, they have outshot Ottawa in the series. Neither goalie has been superb, but I still give the nod to Henrik Lundqvist, who has a .930 save percentage in this postseason. Meanwhile, his counterpart Craig Anderson has seen his own save percentage dip down to .878 the L4 games. Neither power play has done much in the series, but let's remember the Rangers finished 10th in the regular season while Ottawa was just 23rd. The Blueshirts were also the 4th highest scoring team in the league during the regular season. 

Lundqvist has typically excelled in this spot. When facing elimination and on home ice, he's 10-1 all-time w/ a spectacular 1.05 goals against average and .965 save percentage. While all three of Ottawa's wins in the series have come by one goal margins, the Rangers dominated both Games 3 and 4 here at MSG, winning 4-1 each time. So despite being down in the series, they've both outshot and outscored the Senators! It was the Rangers that finished the regular season w/ more points as well. Simply put, I continue to view New York as the better team here. 8* NY Rangers

8* Anaheim (10:35 ET): Through four games, the home team has yet to win a single game in this series. The Ducks, after dropping the first two at home, stormed back w/ B2B wins in Edmonton, scoring 10 goals in the process. What are the chances that they lose a third straight time on home ice to the Oilers? Not high. I say that because during the regular season this team suffered a Western Conference-low eight losses in regulation at home and only Washington and Pittsburgh (currently facing each other) experienced fewer home losses overall this season. The Ducks also won both games against Calgary here at The Pond in the opening round. I see them making it three in a row over Edmonton and for the first time taking the series lead.

If Anaheim can continue to score at the rate we saw in the prior two games, then Edmonton is in big time trouble. That's because the Ducks were also 3rd in the league in goals allowed during the regular season and had the 4th best penalty kill. They have now outshot the Oilers in all four games in this series, three times putting the puck on net at least 36 times. The other game saw them score six goals! While goaltender John Gibson did struggle early on in this series, his .932 save percentage for the year at home tells you he should play well tonight. Overall, this Ducks team is 14-2-2 its last 18 games. You have to believe they will take care of business at home, right? 

Given what we saw in the regular season, I remain leery of Conor McDavid's supporting cast continuing to produce for Edmonton. Since suffering that 7-0 drubbing at the hands of San Jose in Rd 1, the Oilers have scored at least three times in five of the last six games, the lone exception ironically being a 2-1 win in this series. But the fact they've been outshot in all four games by Anaheim is concerning as is the recent play of Cam Talbot between the pipes. His save percentage in the series is down to .902. Blowing a two-goal lead in Game 4 and losing in OT is an ominous sign for the underdog here. 8* Anaheim

10* NY Rangers (7:35 ET): After blowing Game 2 in spectacular fashion (allowed two goals in final five minutes of regulation and lost in double OT), the Rangers completely dominated the Senators in Game 3, winning 4-1 here at Madison Square Garden. Given the ease with which they won Tuesday, not to mention my overall read on Ottawa, I've got no choice but to come right back w/ the Blueshirts again tonight in Game 4. Of course, in the interest of full disclosure, I've actually now played AGAINST the Sens in EVERY one of their games this postseason. This is a team that was outscored over the course of the regular season and has a statistical profile that's very unimpressive to say the least. I consider it to be a "minor miracle" that they've made it this far.

One thing (of many!) that shocked me about the Senators' round one victory over the Bruins was the fact they had the edge in shots on goal. During the regular season, Boston was #1 in the league in shot per game differential. But the way this series is going, the Sens are likely NOT to have the edge in shots, thus decreasing their probability of victory. They were outshot badly in Game 2 (48-34) and then 30-27 in Game 3. After Saturday's "gagjob," the Rangers wasted little time in jumping all over the Sens Tuesday, scoring twice in the first period and then adding two more in the second. That was a lead they simply weren't going to blow and it was certainly nice to see goaltender Henrik Lundqvist continue to re-discover "old form" w/ a 26-save effort. Lundqvist now has a .935 save percentage in the playoffs and in my mind, is clearly the better goaltender in this series. No netminder has more than his 289 save this postseason. 

The Rangers got a goal from all four lines Tuesday, so it was a true "team effort." Meanwhile, Ottawa continues to rely on a few individuals to carry them and that's not a sustainable blueprint for success in my estimation. Jean-Gabriel Pageau now has five goals in the last two games. Consider he scored only 12 times in the entire regular season and, yes, he played in every game! Erik Karlsson had the incredible Round 1 against Boston, but has just two points in this series and only three in the team's three losses this postseason. Remember, all six of Ottawa's wins in the playoffs have been by one goal, five of them coming in overtime. The Rangers finished the regular season w/ a far better goal differential and more points. So despite not having home ice advantage in the series, one could certainly argue they are the better team here. 10* NY Rangers

8* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): Ottawa has won six times this postseason and all six wins have come by exactly one goal, five of those coming in overtime! Saturday's 6-5, double OT, win over the Rangers was likely the most preposterous yet. Trailing 5-3 with less than five minutes to go in regulation, the Senators improbably beat Henrik Lundqvist twice to force extra time. Both goals and then the game-winner all came from the stick of Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who had a stunning four goals in all! Making matters more frustrating (clearly, I had the Rangers) is the fact the Sens gave up 48 shots on goal. Scoring five times should have been more than enough for the Blueshirts, but it wasn't and now they're down 0-2. But back at MSG, I still like them to fight their way back into the series.

Now the Rangers do have an odd history of struggling on home ice in the postseason. Furthermore, Ottawa has won 28 of its last 41 visits to the "World's Most Famous Arena." That said, the Rangers' did get the proverbial "monkey off their back" w/ a pair of wins over Montreal here in Round 1. Prior to Game 2, Lundqvist had seemingly rediscovered his past self. The longtime netminder hadn't allowed more than three times in any playoff game. Getting beaten six times in one game, four by one player, was certainy shocking. A bounce back should be expected tonight as Lundqvist has posted a save percentage below .850 in B2B playoffs games just twice in his entire career.

Remember that the Rangers were fourth in goals scored during the regular season. Ottawa ranked just 22nd. So, the home team should have the offensive edge here as well. There really isn't anything the Senators do particularly well; in fact, they are the ONLY playoff team to be outscored during the regular season. I'm still waiting for the other shoe (skate) to drop w/ goaltender Craig Anderson. I think him giving up five goals in Game 2 was a sign of things to come. The key for the Rangers is breaking the Senators' trapping defense and they showed an ability to do just that on Saturday. Bottom line is I'm just not a believer in this Ottawa team. 8* NY Rangers

10* Washington (8:05 ET): No team has more pressure on it than the Capitals. Back to back President's Trophies (most points in regular season) mean little when you can't advance past the second round. The last time the Caps made the Eastern Conference Finals was 1998. Last year saw them eliminated in six games by the Pittsburgh Penguins. They again have (or should I say "had") the home ice edge this year, but immediately lost it w/ a 3-2 loss in Game 1 Thursday. That despite owning a 35-21 edge in shots on goal. When you add in missed shots and blocked shots, the Caps had nearly a 2:1 edge for the game. But they still found themselves down 2-0 after giving up B2B goals in the first 1:04 of the second period. They rallied back to tie the game and seemingly had "momentum," but then came Nick Bonino's game winner.

I cannot see Washington dropping B2B home games. Wanna know why? Because it didn't happen a single time during the regular season! All-time, the franchise is 10-6 SU in Game 2's after dropping Game 1. Remember, not only was this the third highest scoring team in the regular season, they were #1 in goals allowed. They were also third on the power play and seventh on the penalty kill. So there's really nothing they don't excel at. This is the most talented team in the league. All season long, Pittsburgh has been able to get away w/ giving up high shot totals. They were tied (w/ Toronto, the team Washington beat in Rd 1) for the third most in the regular season at 32.6 per game. In the playoffs, they've been even worse, allowing a frightening 38.2 per game, which is by far the most. 

Yes, Carl Hagelin could return here for Pittsburgh. But Washington remains the more talented side. They have Braden Holtby in goal. He was second in goals against average (2.07) and third in save percentage (.925). I still remain unsold on Marc-Andre Fleury being able to get the job done on an every game basis for Pittsburgh. So far, he's been shockingly good as Matt Murray remains out w/ a lower body injury. But his save percentage on the road this season is just .888, which is really bad. Washington is 25-12 against teams w/ a winning record this year while Pittsburgh is only 20-16 even after ousting Columbus in just five games. Must win here for the Caps and they get it done. 10* Washington

8* NY Rangers (3:05 ET): I lost w/ the Rangers in Game 1, but will still come right back w/ them in Game 2. My initial analysis and read on the series still stand. Ottawa is the lone playoff team that was outscored during the regular season. They were a pedestrian 22nd in goals scored. So far in the playoffs, they've been fortunate in the sense that all five victories have been by one goal. The Rangers, despite finishing fourth in the tougher Metro, had more points in the regular season than did the Senators. Game 1 loss aside, Henrik Lundqvist has clearly regained "old form" as his save percentage in the playoffs is now .948. The Rangers don't dare want to fall into an 0-2 series hole and thankfully they posted the best road record in the league during the regular season. 

Game 1 saw Ottawa outshoot the Rangers, 43-35. Erik Karlsson continued his almost preposterous postseason w/ the game winning goal at the 15:49 mark of the third period. It was the game's lone even strength goal and a bit of a fluke. Those final four minutes also marked the only time during the game that Ottawa led. Something worth noting is that fan support was hardly at its apex in the Canadian Tire Center Thursday night as there were AT LEAST 3,000 empty seats. So much for making the most of your home ice advantage. I've been a bit surprised to see the Sens convert on the power play at a 22.2% rate in the playoffs after ranking 22nd in that department in the regular season. Their penalty kill was only 23rd. So special teams were an issue all year long.

Allow me to remind you that the Rangers were 4th in the league in goals per game in the regular season. They are 12-2 this year after being held to one goal or less in the previous game. That includes a win in Game 4 of the Montreal series. So, history says they bounce back here. Lundqvist always gives them a fighting chance as the 41-save effort was strong in Game 1 and he definitely looked like the better netminder compared to counterpart Craig Anderson. Moreso than Boston, the Rangers have the right personnel to break the Sens' trap. They even the series up Saturday afternoon. 8* NY Rangers

10* Anaheim (10:35 ET): Given that Anaheim posted one of the best home records in the league during the regular season (29-8-4) and (obviously) took both games here during their first round sweep of Calgary, the likelihood of them dropping B2B games to Edmonton seems pretty minimal. Game 1 saw the Oilers hand the Ducks their first regulation defeat of any kind ... since March 10th! It was also the Ducks' first regulation loss at home since March 5th. The Oilers are still the only team to beat the Ducks in April, having now done so twice. A third-period meltdown where Anaheim allowed four goals was downright shocking considering this is a team that ranked third in the league in goals per game during the regular season and fourth on the PK. I think they'll bounce back to take Game 2 tonight at the Pond. 

Key the Oilers' Game 1 victory was the fact that they got a lot of contributions from players not named Conor McDavid. In fact, their star player had just one point in the game, an assist. It's a little rare for Edmonton to succeed when McDavid isn't producing. In fact, their Corsi for percentage this year is just 45.6 w/ McDavid off the ice. They were outshot, 36-32, in Game 1. Since that 7-0 drubbing they took in Game 4 of the Sharks series, the Oilers haven't lost. But they have allowed 14 goals in the L4 games. Offensively, they are averaging only 2.4 goals per game in the postseason. So I'd look for a bounce back type performance from Anaheim goaltender John Gibson, who has a .933 save percentage at home this year.

Anaheim is - by far - the more experienced side here, so don't expect them to panic. Earlier, I talked about how long ago it was that the team last tasted defeat in regulation. Well, they also have lost B2B games only once over the last two and half months, both of those coming in overtime, on the road. (Edmonton was responsible for the one, on April 1). Over his L4 games, Cam Talbot has a save percentage of only .898, so that's something to worry about. Only two of the five goals allowed by Anaheim in Game 1 came at even strength (two on power play, one empty-netter). Cam Fowler is also back on the ice for the Ducks, which is a big deal. This is a virtual "must-win" for the home team. 10* Anaheim

10* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): Last night, a key factor in me playing the Predators against the Blues was the fact Nashville was favored to win the series, yet an underdog in Game 1. Had it not been for the public not being fooled one iota, the same thing would have been the case here. The Rangers come in favored to oust Ottawa, not just from the playoffs, but here on the road for Game 1 as well. That makes sense. Not only did NY finish w/ more total points, but the Senators are the ONLY playoff team that was outscored during the regular season. Henrik Lundqvist appears to have regained old form at the perfect time, so you can count me in w/ the majority here in taking the Rangers, who are a league-best 29-13-2 on the road this year.

I do have to tip my cap to the Sens for outshooting the Bruins in Round 1. That's no small feat. Boston led the league in shot per game differential in the regular season (+7.4) and that was one of several reasons why I did NOT like Ottawa to advance in that series. But they did. But still, all four wins were by one goal and three were in overtime. So, they by no means dominated. The fact that they twice scored four goals in a game was really surprising considering this club ranked only 22nd in goals per game during the regular season. I also should point out that compared to the Rangers, the Sens are lacking in postseason experience. This is their first trip to the second round since 2013 and just the second since the franchise's long run to the Stanley Cup Finals, back in '07. 

In Round 1, the Rangers may have allowed more shots on goal than you'd typically like to see, but they have Henrik Lundqvist to alleviate the issue. Lundqvist turned in a fantastic .947 save percentage against Montreal, stoppping 195 of 206 shots. Offensively, the Rangers ranked fourth in the regular season in goals per game. Ottawa may have won the season series, 2-1, but the second win came late in the year when the Rangers were resting players. At full strength, New York is the better team here, even in the opponent's rink. 10* NY Rangers

10* Nashville (8:05 ET): Normally, ousting a team that had the best regular season goal differential in your Conference in just five games would qualify as the most impressive performance of a given round of the playoffs. Especially when your goaltender posts a .956 save percentage and you win three times on the road. But what St. Louis did to Minnesota simply does not compare to the incredible job put forth by Nashville in Rd 1 as they swept the Blackhawks right out of the playoffs, allowing only three goals total in the process! Pekka Rinne turned in an other-worldly .976 save percentage in the series, so he's the hotter of the two goaltenders here and the Preds are actually favored to win this series, thus making them appear to be an outstanding value tonight in Game 1. 

Now Nashville did not perform well in the regular season when taking the ice w/ three or more days' rest. In fact, they were 0-6 in that situation. But Game 1 of the Chicago series was a different story as they won 1-0. They followed w/ another shutout in Game 2 (5-0!) and then held serve in both home games to sweep the series. Remember, this team somewhat underachieved this year as they were projected to be a top contender in the West thanks to the addition of former Norris Trophy winner PK Subban to the blue line. But their Corsi for percentage still ranked very high and was indicative of a team that could be dangerous in the playoffs. In particular, the Forsberg-Johansen-Arvidsson line has been dominant. Forsberg and Johansen EACH had 11 points in Round 1!

While St. Louis seemed impressive in ousting the Wild in just five games, they really were quite fortunate. Not only to win both overtime games in Minnesota, but also because they were outshot rather dramatically over the course of the series. They allowed an average of 36.4 shots per game while at the same time, putting only 26.8 per game on net themselves. Their Corsi for percentage was just 39.1 for the series. This was a problem throughout the year, but luckily Allen has been there to bail them out down the stretch. But unlike Minnesota, Nashville is a team playing its best hockey of the year right now. Yes, the Blues won the only meeting after their midseason coaching change (4-1 here at home on 4.2), but even then, they were outshot 36-25 and had the luxury of not having to face Rinne. I feel the Predators are the better team here. 10* Nashville

10* Boston (3:05 ET): This play should come as no surprise seeing as I've played the Bruins in all five games so far (Ottawa leads 3-2). I still maintain that they're the better team here for all the reasons previously outlined. While facing elimination and never having rallied back from a 3-1 series deficit in FRANCHISE history, a case could certainly be made that the B's turned the proverbial "corner" in Game 5 w/ a 3-2 win in double overtime. They had to rally back from a two goal deficit to stay alive and now get a home game. I know that the the Bruins are trying to buck history here, but there's a first time for everything, right? Look for Boston to force a deciding Game 7 in Ottawa. 

Many key metrics from the regular season pointed to Boston being the better team here. They had a better goal differential than Ottawa (+22 to -2). In fact, the Senators are the ONLY team to make the playoffs that was outscored in the regular season. Also, the Bruins led the league in shot per game differential and were tops on the penalty kill (85.7%). Surprisingly, they allowed three power play goals in the first three games. But they've been a perfect 8 for 8 in the last two and came up huge in a couple crucial moments in Game 5. Shockingly, they have yet to outshoot the Sens in any individual game in the series. But maybe that bodes well, moving forward? They allow only 25.8 shots per game at home for the year and I now feel Tuukka Rask is outplaying Craig Anderson in goal. 

Of course, all anyone wanted to focus on coming into this series was the fact the Sens swept the regular season series (4-0) from the Bruins. Given what was outlined above, that shocked me. Now, it should be pointed out that five of the now seven wins over the Bruins this year have come by a one-goal margin. One of the others that they won by two goals saw them score an empty-netter. Three have been in overtime. So they've hardly dominated. As you might expect, there's some real attrition (on both sides) with the series being so competitive. Despite absences along the blue line, I feel Boston forces a Game 7 as not only can I not see them losing a sixth straight home game to Ottawa, but I believe them to simply be the better club here. 10* Boston

8* Minnesota (3:05 ET): The higher seeded Wild avoided what would have been an embarrassing sweep by beating St. Louis 2-0 in Game 4 and now get another home game. After losing both Games 1 and 2 here at the Xcel Center, I just can't see them losing here again. This is a team that went 27-12-2 on home ice during the regular season. It's easy to forget now, but Minnesota had the best goal differential in the Western Conference (+58). They were 2nd in goals scored in the league, so scoring only five in the first four games of this series has been a major disappointment. Jake Allen has been ridiculously hot between the pipes for the Blues, turning in a .966 save percentage in the series. But let's not forget the Wild's Devan Dubnyk was a bonafide Vezina candidate much of the year and he's been right behind Allen in terms of both save percentage (.943) and goals against average (1.42). Look for the Wild to extend this series another game.

Minnesota may have finished the regular season second in scoring, but down the stretch, we saw their shooting percentage plummet. In this series, that trend has continued. They've actually outshot the Blues, somewhat dramatically, by about an average of 10 per game. Yet, they're finding the back of the net 3.4% of the time compared to 6.5% for St. Louis. Part of the discrepancy has to do w/ a massive 52-26 edge in shots in Game 1. But even still, the Blues have yet to outshoot the Wild in any individual game in the series. It's not as if St. Louis has been some offensive juggernaut in this series; they have just seven goals

The Blues are 6-3 head to head vs. the Wild this year. But five of the wins have come by one goal margins, two of those in extra time. Though they faltered down the stretch, the Wild were the better team for the balance of the year. If they weren't down 3-1 in the series and facing elimination, there'd likely be no issue with this price whatsoever. One key trend to keep in mind is that St. Louis is just 3-7 SU when leading in a playoff series the L3 seasons. That was a 1-7 SU record coming into this series. 8* Minnesota

10* Boston (7:35 ET): I've made the decision to "go down w/ the ship" if need be as this will be the fifth straight game playing the Bruins for me. Game 1 turned out great; it was my *10* Game of the Week and they beat Ottawa 2-1. But they've since dropped three straight, all by one goal margins, two in overtime. That has them not only on the brink of elimination, but also 1-7 head to head with the Senators this season (4-13 L3 seasons). To me, Ottawa's head to head mastery of Boston has been confounding to say the least. Not only do the Bruins have - by far - the better goal differential, the Sens are the lone playoff team that was outscored in the regular season. Throw in that the B's are #1 in the league on the penalty kill and in shot differential and needless to say I figured this series would go a different way. Maybe it still can. I'll call for the road team to stay alive here. 

In my previous analysis on this series, I've harped on Boston's shot differential during the regular season. It was the league's best and only the Kings (who admittedly didn't even make the playoffs) were close. But the big stunner in this series is that the Bruins have yet to outshoot Ottawa in any of the individual games. In the two games at home, they were held to just 20 and 22 shots, shockingly low numbers. This is a team that averages 32.8 shots on goal per game. The penalty kill was a perfect 3 for 3 in Game 4, but has allowed three goals in this series. So needless to say, this is NOT the Bruins team I had been expecting. Injuries along the blue line have definitely taken a toll. But, in my estimation (and the oddsmakers), they are still the better team here. 

Ottawa has a losing record this season following a shutout win and when on a win streak of at least three games, so this may be a "tipping point" of sorts for them. Again, two of the wins in this series came in overtime and Game 4 was a 1-0 game. Boston, meanwhile, is 5-2 this year when on a three-game losing streak. Senators' goalie Craig Anderson has come up big, but as mentioned earlier, he's also faced fewer shots than expected. It is telling that the Bruins have been favored on the ML in every game in this series. Like I said, I'll stick to my belief that they are the better overall team and that they're "due" to break through against Ottawa. 10* Boston

8* Edmonton (10:35 ET): Up 2-1 in the series, the Oilers were absolutely humiliated in Game 4. I know because I played against them. They lost 7-0 down in San Jose and now things are all "squared away." But the scene shifts back to Edmonton and w/ the public likely to be "off them," I'm siding with the home team. Not just for the sake of being a contrarian mind you, but the Sharks are one of just five playoff teams to have a losing road record. Also, remember that the Oilers won both Games 2 and 3 in shutout fashion. They also led Game 1, 2-0, before falling in overtime. So while Game 4 was obviously a very bad experience, it's just one game, and it's probably more pertinent that the Oilers were the better team for most of the first three games. I expect a raucous crowd tonight as well.

San Jose scored four power play goals in Game 4, a stunning reversal from the first three games where they were an awful 1 for 14 w/ the man advantage. In fact, Edmonton actually scored more goals (2) when San Jose was on the power play than the Sharks did (both goals scored in Game 2 were short-handed). It is a little worrisome that the Oilers have scored just one even strength goal in the last 11 periods of play, but while young, this is a talented offensive group. They were 8th in the league in scoring during the regular season and seeing as Connor McDavid has been held w/o a point the L2 games, I'm banking on him being the star of the night. Incredibly, Tuesday marked just the fourth time all season that the Sharks posted a shutout win. 

The Oilers are also 14-7 SU this year after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. More concerning than Cam Talbot's performance in Game 4 is the fact that Martin Jones' save percentage on the road this year is only .909. Edmonton was also 8th in the league in goals allowed this season. San Jose was just 19th in goals scored and their power play was ranked lower (25th) than all other playoff teams. Throw in the fact that Edmonton was the much better team down the stretch and I see them bouncing back w/ a big win tonight in Game 5. 8* Edmonton

8* Montreal (7:05 ET): I'm switching course here in Game 5 as the series shifts back to Ville-Marie. I was on the Rangers in Game 4 and they thankfully came through, winning 2-1, and thus ending an embarrassing six-game home playoff losing streak. The Rangers very nearly took BOTH games here in Montreal, but allowed a game-tying goal w/ 18 seconds remaining in regulation in Game 2 and lost in overtime. The Habs took the series lead and home ice advantage back w/ a 3-1 win in Game 3 and now just have to hold serve here at the Bell Centre in order to advance (Game 7, if necessary, would be played here). I realize that the Rangers had the league's best road record during the regular season, but I believe the Habs are a solid value on the ML.

Though limited to just 24 shots total in Game 4 (only 12 in 2nd & 3rd periods combined!), Montreal has still outshot the Rangers for the series. In fact, Game 4 was the first time that New York had the edge in shots on goal. Game 2, where the Canadiens outshot the Rangers 58-38, certainly skews things. But in a series where both goaltenders have been on point, having the edge in shots can be critical. For the year, the Rangers have been outshot. Meanwhile, Montreal has outshot its opponents.  Neither power play has done much, but both goals scored w/ the man advantage have come from the Montreal side (Game 3). While the Rangers had the league's best reg season road record, the Habs were no slouch at home either, going 24-12-5. The Rangers are just 2-6 when tied in a playoff series the L3 years and the Habs are 13-9 SU this year after being held to one goal or less the previous game.

The goaltending matchup of Lundqvist vs. Price figured to grab the headlines in this series and thus far it has not disappointed. Both have allowed just eight goals over the four games. But, at home, I give the slight edge to Price. Not just because he's likely to face fewer shots, but also because he sports a .930 save percentage for the year on home ice. On the road, Lundqvist' save percentage is a slightly worse .924. While the Rangers were 12th during the regular season in goals allowed, Montreal was 4th. Also, remember that the Habs are 6-2 SU head to head w/ the Rangers this year. They've had their number. 8* Montreal

8* Boston (7:35 ET): What would have been a monumental comeback was all for naught as alas the Bruins ended up losing 4-3 in overtime to the Senators in Game 3. They initially trailed 3-0 in the second period, before rallying to tie the game going into the third. Combined w/ the fact that they blew a 3-1 lead in Game 2, Boston has to be very frustrated right now. Most shocking to me is that the team that enjoyed the largest shot differential per game in the regular season has been outshot here by Ottawa for the series (32-20 in Gm 3). The Bruins are now just 1-6 head to head w/ Ottawa this season (0-4 reg season), but I'll still harp on the fact that all the key metrics indicate they are the better overall team. I can't see them dropping B2B games here at home. 

In additon to being outshot, Boston has also uncharacteristically given up three power play goals in the last two games. This was the top ranked penalty killing unit in the entire league during the regular season (85.7 percent). So, given the head to head results, is it correct to say that Ottawa has some sort of "magic elixir" to beat Boston? Hardly. Again, both Senators wins in this series have come in overtime. Their last four wins over the Bruins have all been of the one-goal variety, three of them decided in extra time. So, I'd hardly dub this "head to head domination." Again, something I've pointed out in past analysis is that Ottawa is the ONLY team to make the playoffs that was outscored during the regular season. Conversely, the Bruins had a reg season goal differential of +22. Like I said earlier, I believe them to be the better team here (as do the oddsmakers, clearly).

In step w/ their negative goal differential, Ottawa was just 22nd in the league in goals scored during the regular season. So the fact that they have eight goals in the last two games is yet another thing that has caught me off guard. Bruins' goalie Tuukka Rask needs to be a little sharper and I believe he will. Also, where's the huge edge on special teams for Boston? In addition to having the top ranked PK unit, they were 7th on the power play in the regular season. Ottawa was bottom 10 in both categories. 8* Boston

full analysis soon

10* San Jose (10:05 ET): This is the only Western Conference series where both teams have won a game. With the Blues, Predators and Ducks all owning 3-0 leads in their respective series, the bracket is about to be turned upside down. But, obviously, the Sharks can ill-afford to think about any of that given their own current position. They're down 2 games to 1 to the Oilers after conceding the home ice advantage back w/ a 1-0 loss in Game 3 here at home. The Sharks won Game 1 up in Edmonton, 3-2 in overtime, but have since been shockingly shut out in B2B defeats. The lack of offense is made even more disappointing by the fact they've held the Oilers to an average of just 25.7 shots per game for the series. A desperate team, expect the Sharks to even the series up here at home tonight. 

Limiting shots was a key component to San Jose ranking 4th in the league in goals allowed during the regular season. Only the Kings and Bruins allowed fewer shots per game than did the Sharks (27.7). The fact that they're below that strong average and still down in the series has to be frustrating. Now the first two games both saw lopsided margins in terms of shots on goal w/ San Jose owning 44-19 edge in Game 1 and Edmonton 36-16 in Game 2. Things were virtually even (23-22 in favor of the Sharks in Game 3). Given the defensive nature of that game, one would have thought it would favor the Sharks. But, alas, they could not break through against Cam Talbot. The lone goal was scored off a costly San Jose turnover. The Sharks being 1 for 14 on the power play has also hurt, especially w/ them giving up the two short-handed goals in Game 2.

One Shark I'm not concerned about is goaltender Martin Jones, who has stopped 72 of 77 shots in the series and allowed only one even strength goal over the last eight periods! For Edmonton, I think Talbot's play is due to level off. He cannot possibly maintain his current .964 save percentage. Also, San Jose got Joe Thorton back for Game 3 and that should be huge moving forward.  The Oilers have won three straight times at the Shark Tank going back to the regular season and it's simply "time" for them to lose. 10* San Jose

10* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): After taking Game 1 of this best of seven series, the Rangers have given back the home ice advantage to Montreal w/ B2B losses. The first, on the road, came in overtime after allowing the game-tying goal w/ just 18 seconds remaining in regulation. Just think how different this series would be perceived had the Blueshirts taken both games in Montreal. Game 3 was a much poorer effort as they fell behind 3-0 at home, their sixth consecutive playoff loss here in MSG. They're also now just 1-6 SU head to head vs. the Habs this season. Despite that and being badly outshot those L2 games, I believe it's "high time" that the home losing streak comes to an end. These two teams were basically even in terms of points in the regular season, so the fact the Habs have had the Rangers number is particularly confounding. 

Incredibly, the Rangers have been outscored 21-4 in those six straight home losses. They've been held to two goals or fewer in nine straight home games. Thus, there's some real pressure on goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, who did make 54 saves in Game 2. But that still wasn't enough. Considering the Rangers were outshot in that game 58-38, however, it was a minor miracle that they were even in position to win. The bigger issue from Game 3 was putting only 21 shots on goal. Early in the season, this was a dominant offense, one that could get plenty of scoring from any of the top four lines. So can they break through against Carey Price? Considering they scored five times on him in the first two games, I'd answer that question in the affirmative.

Remember that not only did Lundqvist turn in a 54-save effort in Game 2, he also shut the Habs out in Game 1. The Rangers are curiously just a .500 team at home this season, so their struggles aren't necessarily limited to the postseason here at MSG. But I can't see them dropping two in a row on home ice. A real key trend in handicapping this contest is the fact New York is 11-2 SU this season after scoring 1 goal or less in the previous game. 10* NY Rangers

10* Calgary (10:35 ET): Thanks to a proverbial "friendly bounce," Anaheim is up 2-0 in this best of seven series, which now shifts to Alberta. Game 2 was decided in the final five minutes of regulation, on a Ducks' power play, when a Ryan Getzlaf pass wound up bouncing off a the skate of Flames' defensemen Lance Bouma and into the net. That was an absolutely brutal loss for Calgary, which has now lost 29 straight regular season matchups in Anaheim. Yes, you read that correctly. Falling down two goals in the first period did them no favors Saturday, but the Flames were able to rally back and really dominated the second period of play. After tying the game, they threatened to take the lead on numerous occasions. They outshot Anaheim for the game, 37-29.

The importance of the series now moving to Calgary really cannot be understated. Not only because of the Flames' inability to win in Anaheim, but also due to the fact that the Ducks enter the postseason as one of only five teams w/ losing road records. Toronto, Pittsburgh, Nashville and San Jose are the others. Note two of those teams are Wild Cards, like Calgary. The Ducks were tied w/ Nashville, however, for the most road losses w/ 24. This will actually be Calgary's first home game since 4.2 when they lost to Anaheim, 4-3. They're 0-4 vs. the Ducks in April and have revenge for five straight losses to them overall. The Flames key is they average nearly a full goal more per game at home than they do on the road. Their shooting percentage rises to 10.8% here in the Saddledome.

The Flames have been close in the series, losing each of the first two games by just one goal. The move home should certainly have a positive impact on goaltender Brian Elliott, who has a .922 save percentage here and a 15-7 SU record. Meanwhile, Anaheim's John Gibson's road record is only 8-15 SU. While Calgary would not be officially eliminated w/ a loss here, they would be - for all intents and purposes - done. It's been done before, but teams just don't come back from an 0-3 series deficit very often. Therefore, I expect the Flames' best tonight as they feel they should have won Game 2 were in not for an errant bounce. They're eventually due to beat Anaheim, right? 10* Calgary

8* Boston (7:05 ET): Well, after coming from behind to win Game 1 (2-1), the Bruins dropped Game 2. But a split in Ottawa was all that was necessary to take home ice advantage away in this series. It's a series where I've played Boston both games. Despite an 0-4 SU regular season record vs. the Sens, I maintain that it's the Bruins that are the better team here. They a) had a vastly superior goal differential during the regular season (+22 to -2), b) owned the league's best per game shot differential during the regular season (+6.4) and c) had the league's top ranked penalty kill. None of those things have changed after two games so I'll stick with the same side for Game 3 as the scene shifts to Beantown. 

I can make a pretty compelling case that Ottawa is the weakest team in the entire playoff field. Not only are they the only one out of 16 to be outscored during the regular season, they had pretty pedestrian special teams as well (23rd on power play, 22nd in penalty killing). They are just 22nd in goals scored overall. Let's not forget they had to rally back from a 3-1 deficit to win Game 2, in overtime. Surprisingly, their 1st goal came on the power play. Remember that the club had previously dropped 7 of 10 and only once during that time did they score more than three goals. While technically not a power play goal, the GW in Game 2 came seconds after the Bruins' Zdeno Chara returned to the ice after taking a delay of game penalty. As you might ascertain from them having the top ranked PK unit, Boston is usually more sound in such situations.

The Bruins' blue line is currently experiencing some attrition, which is a bit of a concern. But despite Chara playing heavy minutes, the team was in a good position after 40 minutes on Saturday. Between the pipes, I still trust Tuukka Rask more than I do Craig Anderson. It's been unusual that Bruins aren't dominating in terms of the number of shots on goal. Perhaps a return home will tilt that number in their favor. Ottawa has actually won three straight times here, but I can't see that streak continuing. Not with Boston owning a +7.8 edge in shots per game on home ice. Again, going back to the start of this analysis, I just refuse to believe that the regular season sweep by Ottawa is indicative of where these two teams are at. 8* Boston

10* Columbus (6:05 ET): I reckon that everyone has pretty much given up on the Blue Jackets at this point as they're down 0-2 to the Penguins and have dropped eight of nine overall. But if the old adage that "a series doesn't truly start until the home team loses a game," then that read may be a bit premature. Home ice advantage is likely to prove critical in this series (as we've seen in the first two games) and ultimately will probably be the reason the Pens advance. But considering Columbus is 5-1 its last six times hosting Pittsburgh and 28-12-1 SU here at Nationwide Arena this season, I wouldn't write them off yet. Especially in this "must win" spot. They've averaged 36 shots on goal in the first two games and eventually are due to break through against Marc-Andre Fluery. 

With Matt Murray still hurt, Fleury will remain the Pens' lone option between the pipes. So far, he's stopped 70 of 72 shots in the series, which is probably an unsustainable percentage. Furthermore, it was rare down the stretch to see Fleury start in consecutive games, let alone three straight. In fact, the last time we saw Fleury start consecutive games was back before the All-Star Break, in early January and that came w/ a week of rest in between. Bottom line is that I expect his play to regress tonight. Backing this assertion up is the fact Fleury's save percentage on the road this season was a very subpar .887. Pittsburgh won only 4 of the 16 road games he started in the regular season. The Pens had a losing record overall away from home in the regular season and the number of shots they allow continues to be a concern for me. 

So far, Columbus' shooting percentage is a ridiculously low 2.8%. Given that shooting percentage tends to always regress to the mean, I expect them to start finding the back of the net w/ more regularity moving forward. Remember that the Blue Jackets finished the regular season w/ a slightly better goal differential than the Penguins. They were not only sixth in goals scored, but also second in goals allowed. Sergei Bobrovsky's play at home was a big reason for the latter ranking as he went 25-9 SU here in C-bus w/ an outstanding .941 save percentage. The two home games this year vs. Pittsburgh, both started by Bobrovsky, saw him allow just two goals on 65 shots. 10* Columbus

8* Chicago (8:05 ET): It would be difficult to fathom the Blackhawks falling down 0-2 to the Predators, especially with the first two games here at the "Madhouse on Madison." As simplistic as that may sound, that's precisely my rationale here for Game 2. In the series opener, I was on the Under and that play was as "easy as it comes" being that Nashville prevailed by a 1-0 score. Goaltender Pekka Rinne made 29 saves behind a dominant blue line performance and thus Chicago came up empty on the scoreboard. But I anticipate them scoring multiple times Saturday as they even this series up at a game apiece before heading back to the Music City.

Consider that the Preds did not have a single 1-0 win during the regular season. It was also their first road shutout in playoff history. They should be thankful for Rinne though b/c they only managed 20 shots on goal. Not only did Chicago have more shots on goal, they won more faceoffs as well. It was a 23-9 edge in shots for the 'Hawks over the final two periods. Nashville was not a particularly strong road team during the regular season. In fact, their 17-20-4 record was the worst among all playoff teams. (Anaheim had the same number of total losses, but fewer in regulation). Meanwhile, Chicago was predictably strong here on home ice, going 26-10-5. They are also 9-2 SU here vs. the Preds the L3 seasons. In other words, I am not concerned that the Blackhawks have lost five in a row overall. 

In the analysis for my Under play on Game 1, I talked about Nashville's recent scoring drought. They did score seven goals in a win over Dallas on April 6th. But they've been held to exactly one goal in six of their last eight games overall. Perhaps the key trend in handicapping this Game 2 matchup is that the Preds are 0-4 SU this season off a shutout win. Don't forget that the Blackhawks have Corey Crawford, who has a .929 save percentage this season at home. They have eliminated Nashville from the playoffs before and as the top seed this year, there's no reason to think they can't come back and do it again. But falling down 0-2 and having to go on the road for the next two games would be an almost insurmountable hole. Therefore, I look for this veteran team to get the job done. 8* Chicago

10* Boston (3:05 ET): I had the Bruins as they took Game 1 Wednesday. While they had to come from behind to win 2-1, the same rules still apply here. It is telling that despite getting swept in the regular season by the Senators (0-4!), Boston came in not only favored to take this series, but also Games 1 and 2 here on foreign ice. That's because a quick look inside the numbers reveals that the Bruins are indeed the better team here. Not only did they have a far greater goal differential during the year (+22), Ottawa was the lone playoff team that was outscored in the regular season (-2). Then there is the fact that the B's actually led the league in shot per game differential (+6.4). Throw in their top ranked penalty kill (85.7%) and we have all the makings of a legit playoff darkhorse. Look for the road team to make it two straight here in Ottawa. 

As mentioned above, it was a come from behind effort in Game 1. Ottawa struck first in the second period and actually held Boston w/o a shot in the middle 20 minutes! Thus, the Bruins became the 1st team to win a playoff game while being held w/o a single shot in one period of play since Washington did it back in '94. They scored twice in the third period, the deciding goal coming w/ just 2:33 to go in regulation. You have to think that if they can win under those circumstances, then that's a good sign moving forward. Even if center David Krejci (upper body injury) ends up not playing Saturday. It's hard to envision Boston being held w/o a shot for an entire period again. Again, this team led the league in shot differential during the year, so it is rare to find them outshot like they were Weds (only 27-25). Of course, that also means in the other two periods, they outshot the Sens, 25-15.

Ottawa really doesn't have the profile of a playoff team. They rank a pedestrian 22nd in goals scored and at even strength, they are 27th in shots per game. Being that Boston is the top ranked team in the league on the PK, the Senators are unlikely to get much from the power play either. Goaltender Craig Anderson really carried them for much of the year, but I'm skeptical he can maintain a .926 save percentage. Meanwhile, Tuukka Bask has been on fire between the pipes for Boston w/ a .978 save percentage his L4 appearances (stopped 87 of 89 shots). 10* Boston

full analysis soon

6* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The Wild's dreadful final month of the regular season "bled over" into Game 1 of this best of seven series as they fell Wednesday, 2-1 at home to St. Louis. Despite that loss and earning only 10 out of a possible 32 points in March, the Wild are heavy favorites to bounce back here in Game 2. Yes, there are troubling signs, such as the number of shots on goal allowed (over the course of the year) as well as the lack of offense down the stretch. But while goaltender Devan Dubnyk's slump coincided with the team's late season swoon, I thought he performed admirable in the series opener. The problem was the Wild ran into a red-hot goaltender, Jake Allen, who stopped 51 shots for the Blues. But given that Minnesota outshot St. Louis 2:1 and had a sizable edge on faceoffs, they certainly are capable of getting the job done here. Remember, this team still finished 2nd in the league in goals per game & had the best goal differential in the Western Conference. 

You're likely to hear a lot about "momentum" (I hate that word!) right now as St. Louis is 23-8-2 its L33 games while Minnesota is just 8-11-2 its last 21. For the record, the Wild did win their final four regular season games, though all were against non-playoff teams and three of them came at the expense of the two worst teams in the sport (Avs, Coyotes). Clearly, the Wild need to work on finding the back of the net. But by putting 52 shots on goal in Game 1, I think they're showing they are poised for a breakthrough. In March, the team averaged only 2.5 goals per game as their shooting average dropped precipitously. But again, I point to the season as a whole. There's no denying that the Wild were better than the Blues over the course of the season. Before March, Minnesota was scoring on 11% of its shots and also had the third best power play.

Goaltending, ironically enough, had been an issue for the Blues much of this season. But Allen has changed that in a dramatic way. He posted a .938 save percentage after the All-Star Break. But consider that Dubnyk still finished far higher (top 7) in both save percentage and goals against average for the season. There is no way Allen can match his Game 1 performance here and it should be noted that the Wild finished the regular season w/ a 27-12-2 home record. 6* Minnesota

10* Boston (7:05 ET): The Bruins went 0-4 against the Senators in the regular season and thus do not have the home ice advantage in this first round playoff series. Yet, they remain the favorites, not only to win Game 1, but the series as well. On the surface, that might sound strange, but go "inside the numbers" and you'll find that Boston is most certainly the better team here. They finished w/ a superior goal differential compared to Ottawa (+22 to -2) and one key number that makes the B's a playoff darkhorse, not just here but "beyond" is they led the entire league in shot differential. They were +6.4 in that department during the regular season as they were second in shots for and second in shots against. Consider there were only seven teams in the entire league to have a shot differential greater than +1.0! Ottawa is the lone playoff team that was outscored during the regular season.

Two of the Sens four wins over the Bruins during the regular season came by one goal margins and none were by greater than a two goal margin. The most recent was a 2-1 win in Beantown last week, which allowed Ottawa to gain the home ice edge for this series. Somewhat surprisingly, the Senators outshot the Bruins in both home games this year. Three of the four meetings took place after March 1st, so that likely has the Sens' confidence high coming into Game 1. But, I again lean on the season as a whole, not just the head to head matchups. The numbers all indicate Boston was the better team in the regular season, which is why they are favored on the money line here.

It reallly was surprising to me that Ottawa was even able to make the playoffs. They rank a pedestrian 22nd in goals scored and at even strength, they are 27th in shots allowed. Craig Anderson's play between the pipes really carried them, but I'm skeptical that he can maintain his .926 save percentage from the reg season. Certainly, I anticipate a drop from the .943 save percentage he posted in his L4 starts. Bruins goaltender Tuukka Rask may have posted the lowest even strength save percentage of his career (.919), but he's "been here before" and comes in even hotter than Anderson w/ a .966 save percentage his L4 appearances (stopped 85 of 88 shots). Other than Boston, Ottawa was just 10-20 vs. teams with a winning record this year. The Bruins were a strong road team this year (21-14-6) while the Sens were a bit shaky here at home (22-11-8). 10* Boston

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Zero is on the line here as neither team will be going to the playoffs. But I think the home ice advantage will be enough to propel Philadelphia to one final win this year. There was a time when the Flyers threatened to make it a five-team race in the loaded Metro. But I was never a believer as the goal differential was never good. Aside from that early season 10-game win streak, this has been a below average team most of the way. But that being said, home ice has provided the proverbial advantage. The team has gone 25-11-4 this season in the City of Brotherly Love, so w/ Carolina on a five-game losing streak, this shapes up as an easy play.

Adding to Carolina's woes is the fact they lost in a shootout last night, at home, to St. Louis. After being shut out in two of its previous games, the Hurricanes actually managed to score four times Saturday, but alas it was not enough. They gave up a ton of shots (39), which is somewhat uncharacteristic, so all motivation may be lost at this point. Eddie Lack is likely to be the one between the pipes here and that's not a good thing considering an .885 save percentage away from home. This will be the eighth consecutive year that the 'Canes miss the playoffs, which is the longest active streak in the league.

Philly won last night, beating Columbus here at home. While the Blue Jackets are struggling, that's still a quality win over a playoff team. They did have the edge in rest w/ three full days off prior to last night, but as mentioned before, this has been a good home team regardless. Carolina has won only one of its previous six visits here. That includes a 4-3 win back on March 19th. The last time the Flyers lost a home game was March 13th and since then they've outscored their visitors 24-9. Anthony Stolarz, who is the team's best option in goal moving forward, will be starter tonight. He owns a .932 save percentage in six starts so far. Overall, the Flyers have gone 5-1-1 their last seven games and haven't been beaten by more than one goal since March 16th in New Jersey. 8* Philadelphia

10* San Jose (10:05 ET): Two playoff teams will wrap up their regular seasons Saturday here at the Shark Tank. Calgary is locked into fourth place in the Pacific Division and thus will be a Wild Card. They still don't know which division winner they will play in the first round, however. San Jose is third in the Pacific and will play Edmonton in the first round. They are two points back of the Oilers for second place, but will need them to drop both remaining games (which are against lowly Vancouver) in order to gain home ice advantage for that series. As unlikely scenario as that might be, I stil expect the Sharks to come out motivated here after being beaten here at home by Edmonton Thursday night. Of all the Western Conference playoff teams, San Jose has been the coldest of late (lost 9 of 12) and desperately needs to recapture some "momentum."

That loss to the Oilers two nights ago really hurt the Sharks' chances of finishing second in the division. But one good thing is they've gone 10-4 SU this season when off a loss by 2+ goals. They are 25-11-4  SU at home this year, but curiously have had difficulty beating the Flames here. Over the past three seasons, Calgary has come in and won five of the seven meetings at the Shark Tank. The Sharks also just suffered a 5-2 loss in Calgary last week. All that being said, I still like what I've seen from San Jose over the balance of the season. They limit opponents to just 27.8 shots per game (26.2 at home), which is third best in the league. They give up just 2.2 goals per game at home.

Calgary is also top 10 in shots allowed, but I'm less impressed by their goaltending. Really, considering what a bust FA acquisition Brian Elliott has been, it's somewhat shocking that they will be in the playoffs. Elliott is expected to start tonight and has an .897 save percentage on the road this year. He's been in goal for only one of the four games against San Jose this year. Whomever the Sharks go w/ between the pipes here (likely to be Martin Jones), they will have the edge there. This is Calgary's third straight road game, in a five-day span, all of them coming in Southern California (which is a dreaded trip in this league). 10* San Jose

8* Toronto (7:35 ET): There are still two playoff spots that are "up for grabs" in the NHL's Eastern Conference. One is guaranteed to go to an Atlantic Division team. Three teams are eligible for that spot: Ottawa, Toronto and Tampa Bay w/ the Ottawa right now being in the driver's seat. Tampa Bay appears to be the odd team out as they trail Toronto by five points for what would be the final Wild Card spot in the Conference. This game right here could lock things up. Not only must the Lightning win all three of their remaining games just to stay alive, they would need either the Senators or Maple Leafs to lose all three of their remaining games. That scenario isn't happening. In fact, I'll call for Toronto to end things tonight by picking up the two points and clinching a playoff berth.

The Leafs are one of the nice stories in the league this year. For the last couple seasons, they were one of the real dregs of the league. But thanks to Auston Matthews and other young talent, the team has made a big jump up the standings. They are 5th in goals scored (3.1 per game) and the last game aside, it's been a strong finish to the regular season. Prior to Tuesday's home loss to Washington (no shame there), Toronto had won seven of eight and scored four or more goals in doing so. I feel this team is a lot better than its record shows considering a 1-8 SU record in shootouts (league-worst). Their 15 non-regulation losses are also a league-high. Their chances of bouncing back on home ice are strong here considering a 15-8 SU record after giving up 4+ goals the previous game. Goaltender Frederik Anderson has a .920 save percentage at home. 

Tampa Bay has been besieged by injury this year w/ Steven Stamkos' being the most significant. But the bottom line is that goalie Ben Bishop was struggling before getting dealt to LA at the deadline. To me, that trade seemed to signal the "white flag" was being waved here. The team did manage to go on a 5-1 run entering Tuesday's game in Boston, but they were shutout there (lost 4-0). It certainly didn't help that they had only 17 skaters available for that game. While the home team is 0 for 3 in head to head meetings between these two, the fact that Toronto won twice in Tampa Bay re-emphasizes that they are simply the better team here. The Lightning have been outshot in five consecutive games and even their one strength (the power play) is bested by the Leafs, who rank 2nd in the league on the man advantage (TB is 4th). 8* Toronto

8* Washington (8:05 ET): A win tonight would lock up the Capitals' second straight President's Trophy and obviously the #1 overall seed in the Eastern Conference. Thus, I don't think the oddsmakers can make the price high enough for this game against the Rangers, who are locked into a Wild Card spot and will play Montreal in the first round of the playoffs. The Caps, rather easily, disposed of another possible Wild Card last night, beating Toronto 4-1. That was their eighth win in the last nine games. Meanwhile, the Blueshirts are stumbling somewhat, having dropped five of six prior to a win Sunday over Philadelphia. With the clear motivation edges and being on home ice, I'm all over the best team in the sport tonight.

Washington not only ranks #1 in goals allowed this season, but they are #2 in goals scored, thereby giving them the top scoring differential in the league at +79. As already mentioned, they added to it last night w/ a 4-1 win in Toronto. They outshot the Leafs 38-28 and are now averaging 4.0 gpg on 34.2 shot attempts over the last five games. Here at home, they are a dominant 31-6-2 and have scored twice as many goals as their opponents. It's almost a certainty that Braden Holtby will be between the pipes tonight as he was given the night off yday. The likely Vezina winner is #2 in goals against average (2.11) and tied for third in save percentage (.924). Holtby had a couple of uncharacteristically bad showings last week, but then respoinded w/ a big 35-save effort to beat Columbus on Sunday. 

The Rangers have allowed at least three goals in four consecutive games. There is a good chance they'll be favored to beat Montreal in the first round (even w/o home ice advantage), but tonight is not a good matchup for them. Goalie Henrik Lundqvist is still struggling since his return from a hip injury and has an .873 save percentage his L4 starts. The Rangers actually did take the first two H2H matchups w/ the Caps this year, but lost the last one 4-1 in MSG. Something to note is that Washington is a perfect 9-0 this season coming off three or more consecutive road games. 8* Washington

8* Pittsburgh (5:05 ET): Carolina suffered a crushing loss last night (I was on them), getting shut out by Dallas (3-0). Getting shut out by Dallas is not a good sign given the Stars came into the game ranked 28th in goals allowed. Also not a good sign is that the 'Canes are now six points back of the final playoff spot in the East (w/ only five games to play). Perhaps Carolina was due to regress after an impressive March. Whatever the reason for last night's failure, there's no sugarcoating the result. Now, the Canes have to play at Pittsburgh, who are fighting for home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. I'm on the Pens here. 

Home ice advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs would be huge for the Pens as they are tied for a league-low six regulation home losses. Their 4-3 win over the Rangers Thursday was just as key as the Hurricanes' loss was for them last night. It snapped a four-game losing streak. They have had no problems with Carolina this year, beating them in all three meetings including a 7-1 win. Going back to Friday's result, the Pens are 23-13 following a game where they scored four or more goals.

Carolina goaltending has been an issue all season. Cam Ward has been better of late, but his save percentage on the road is below .500. In case you hadn't heard, Pittsburgh is the top scoring team in the league. They average nearly 4.0 goals per game on home ice (also 36.2 shots per game). Pens goalie Matt Murray has a 30-14 record this year. Last night's loss was so crippling to the 'Canes that it should have a carryover effect here. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Carolina (7:05 ET): The Hurricanes are the only side likely to be motivated here being that they are still in playoff contention. They are playing much better right now compared to the Stars as they've won two straight, holding Detroit and Columbus to just one goal apiece. Then you have Dallas, which has lost B2B games (at Montreal, Boston) and scored only one goal in the process. Also, Carolina has actually done a good job all season long at limiting shots. Recently, they've been especially good in this department, holding teams to an average of just 24.6 shot the L5 games. Neither team has gotten goaltending this year, but Dallas' has been worse. 

The Stars have been a really bad road team this year. They are 11-23-5 SU. The big reason for that poor record is they have been giving up a ton of goals, 3.5 per game to be exact. This has been the teams biggest issue overall this season as they rank 27th in goals allowed and 30th (last) in penalty killing. This is the fourth road game in five days, so fatigue could be a factor. They are also missing key players - Curtis McKenzie and Ales Hemsky - along the front line. Remember, unlike Carolina, Dallas has been officially eliminated from playoff contention. 

Carolina led the league in goals scored during March w/ 54. As a result, they closed the month on a 9-0-4 run. Trying to get the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, the Canes are currently four points back w/ six to play. With back to back road games looming against Minnesota and Pittsburgh, they must get the two points here. The really good news for them is that Dallas does not score much away from home. They've totaled only six total in the L5 road games and scored more than three only three times in the last 16.  8* Carolina

8* Los Angeles (10:05 ET): The Kings playoff chances are all but dead. That's even after a 4-1 win over Calgary Wednesday night. The deficit remains too steep to climb and a loss tonight would in fact eliminate them from contention and lock up the eight playoff teams in the Western Conference. Fortunately, a game against Vancouver should help them keep their pipe dreams alive. The Canucks were expected to be bad this season and bad they have been. They are tied for the third worst goal differential in the league w/ only Arizona and Colorado behind them. This should be an easy two points for the road team.

The injury to goaltender Jonathan Quick really derailed LA's season, but even w/ him back in the fold, the team has managed just three wins in the L9 games. The last time they won B2B games was mid-month, but this is spot where they should dominate. One area where the Kings continue to excel is limiting shots. They lead the league by giving up only 25.9 per game. Vancouver is on the other end of the spectrum and over the last five games, they've been outshot on average - 35 to 25 - per game. The Canucks have just two wins since early March.

Vancouver does have two wins at the Kings' expense this season, one of them coming earlier this month. But I just can't see that same result taking place again. The Canucks lost their last game, here at home, 4-1 to Anaheim. They are 11-17 after allowing 4+ goals and 9-15 SU after scoring 1 goal or less in the previous game. With their season on the line, you have to believe the Kings will dominate an inferior foe. 8* Los Angeles

7* Montreal (7:05 ET): The price is somewhat steep here, but that was to be expected given the current standing of the respective teams. Montreal continues to lead the Atlantic, though that lead has slimmed to just three points over Ottawa. Over in the Western Conference, Dallas has long been out of playoff contention and despite B2B wins, has been officially eliminated. Even though the Stars have allowed just one goal in each of those last two wins, I wouldn't bet on that continuing. After all, they're 27th in goals allowed, not to mention 30th (dead last) in penalty killing. Their recent shot suppression is nice, but is also unlikely to continue.

The Habs recorded a huge win Saturday, beating the second place Senators 3-1 here at home. That was much needed given that they'd previously dropped two in a row, both at home, to bottom feeders Carolina and Detroit. After five straight games w/ 32 or more shots on goal, there has been a bit of an issue getting the puck on net the last two games. Against Carolina, they managed just 22 shots while against Ottawa, the number was only 24. But similar to the expectancy that Dallas will start giving up more shots on goal, Montreal is likely to start producing more. I have no worries w/ the Habs when it comes to play between the pipes. Carey Price has obviously been the reason for the big jump in the standings this year. He carries a .930 save percentage at home into this one.

I'm shocked to see Price's counterpart, Kari Lehtonen, having posted a .951 save percentage his L4 starts. The Stars' overall save percentage is just .895, second worst in the league (ahead of only Colorado, who is last in basically everything this year). Again, anticipating he'll face more shots here, I expect Lehtonen to regress in similar fashion. Note the Stars' last win came in overtime and was against New Jersey. They are still only 10-24 SU vs. teams w/ a winning record. Don't be surprised if the Canadiens' special teams, which are much improved under HC Claude Julien, to be a difference maker here. 7* Montreal

8* Winnipeg (8:05 ET): According to Wikipedia, the game of hockey was developed back in 19th century Canada. Sadly, for our "neighbors to the north," no native team has hoisted Lord Stanley's Cup since Montreal did it back in 1993! Rather infamously, no Canadian team even made the playoffs last year. At least four are likely to make it this year, giving the "Great White North" some chance, but neither of these teams will be among them. Of course, no one expected Vancouver to be a playoff contender this year. Sure enough, the Canucks have responded in kind as they have the fourth fewest points and fourth worst goal differential in the league. Winnipeg hasn't been a whole lot better and it would take nothing short of a miracle for them to play more than 82 games this year. But being the better team on home ice should be enough for an easy two points here.

The Jets are off B2B road losses to the Kings and Ducks that essentially put their season to bed. It's probably a good thing the schedule makers didn't have them go to San Jose as well (why wouldn't they?). But despite a losing record here in Manitoba, I sense a turnaround, at least for a night. The team has won its last two home games, one of them coming against Minnesota. They've also won the L3 times Vancouver has come calling. This will actually be the first matchup of the Western Canadian franchises since December when they split a pair of games in Vancouver. In both instances, the Jets outshot the Canucks and held them to just 47 shots total.

Vancouver won last night (in Minnesota!), so it's probably a good time to fade them. They'd previously lost seven of eight and this will be their fifth straight road game, a trip which has taken them all around North America (Edmonton >> Chicago >> St. Louis >> Minnesota) and now back into Canada. Following a win by two or more goals, the Canucks are just 1-8 SU this year. They're 3-11 SU after scoring 4+ goals in the previous game. For the record, they beat the Wild 4-2 last night. It was one four-goal period that carried them last night, but don't bank on history repeating itself here as this is the third lowest scoring team in the league. Also, they somehow beat the Wild yday despite just 21 shots. Even more confounding was an OT win at Chicago Tuesday where they were outshot 44-15! Goalie Ryan Miller's days of being a "stopper" are long over and his save percentage his L4 starts is just .897.  8* Winnipeg

7* Columbus (2:05 ET): While the Blue Jackets have the fourth most points in the entire league right now (102), that's only good enough for third place in their own division. Back to back losses certainly haven't helped, especially a 2-1 loss at first place Washington Thursday night. But at least they were able to pick up a point there as the game went to a shootout. The team got another favor last night with the Penguins losing, albeit that was in a shootout as well. Thus, that leaves Columbus two points back of Pittsburgh and three back of Washington. Tonight they face another Metro team, Philadelphia, that at one point was threatening to make it a five-team race in the division. But the Flyers have fallen way off since an early-season 10-game win streak and now find themselves languishing in seventh place. This division rivalry has been completely one-sided the last few years w/ C-bus winning 9 of the past 11 matchups. Here in Ohio, the Flyers have won just one of their past 13 visits!

Two weeks ago, the Flyers couldn't even beat the Blue Jackets at home (lost 5-3). This despite having EIGHT power play opportunities! Needless to say, that probably won't happen again here. Even when they won those 10 straight games back in November, I was never sold on Philly as their goal differential was not impressive. It currently stands at -26 even after a surprise win at Minnesota Thursday. That's an impressive victory no doubt, but the problem is the Flyers have posted B2B wins just one time since the start of February! Goaltending has been an issue all season long w/ a collective save percentage of just .897 (28th). Ranking just 22nd in goals scored isn't nearly enough to offset that. This afternoon's likely starter is Steve Mason and he's just 8-17 SU on the road.

It's clearly very important that Columbus gain home ice advantage for its 1st Round playoff series. The team they could very well be matched up with, Pittsburgh, happens to have the fewest number of home losses in regulation in the entire league. Losing B2B games has been quite uncommon for the team that has scored the fourth most goals in the league while allowing the second fewest. In fact, the last time it happened was the first two games of February. They have NOT lost three in a row at any point this season! Good news is that the Blue Jackets are 8-2 SU after scoring 1 goal or less their previous game. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has owned the Flyers w/ a 1.88 goals against average and .936 save percentage. I expect the home team to win big here.  7* Columbus

10* San Jose (8:35 ET): This is actually San Jose's second visit to Dallas in five days. As I said in my analysis for the previous meeting, barring a total collapse, the Sharks will win the Pacific Division. Well, unfortunately, that total collapse appears to be taking place. I lost that play on them Monday as they went down 1-0. A 3-2 loss the following night in Minnesota made it four straight defeats and now the lead in the Pacific is down to just two points over both Anaheim and Edmonton. But I'll call for the slide to end here. Dallas played last night and lost in a shootout to Chicago. That should have an effect here and it's not like the Stars are playing much for anyway. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, well, shame on the Sharks. 

It's no secret why San Jose hasn't been winning of late. They can't score. During the four-game slide, they've mustered only four goals total. I realize that Dallas shut them out here Monday, but the likelihood of history repeating itself tonight is next to nil. The Stars rank 29th in the league in goals allowed and also have the league's worst penalty killing unit. Not only did Monday mark just the second shutout of the season for Dallas, it was only the fifth time San Jose had been blanked all season. Some key absences along the blue line these last two games will be filled tonight as the Sharks welcome back defensemen Chris Tierney and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Up front, forwards Jannik Hansen and Melker Karlsson are likely to return as well. So this will be a much stronger Sharks team that Dallas is facing here. 

I made the case Monday that San Jose would have a big edge between the pipes. Though Aaron Dell played well, things didn't really play out that way. Kari Lehtonen turned in a 30-save shutout for Dallas that I quite frankly did not seem coming. But for tonight, it's looking more likely that Antti Niemi may get the start (Lehtonen was in goal last night). Niemi's save percentage over his L4 starts is a woeful .816. Meanwhile, rested San Jose can turn to Martin Jones, a big reason why this team ranks 2nd in the league in goals allowed. The Sharks actually outshot the Stars 30-20 on Monday, so you would logically think they'd prevail. They didn't, but this time they will. 10* San Jose

8* Nashville (8:05 ET): With every team in the NHL's Western Conference having 10 or fewer games left to go, the playoff field looks pretty set. It would take a somewhat "Herculean" effort by the Kings to disturb the current top eight. The way things stand now, these two teams would be the Wild Cards. Calgary and Nashville are in fourth place in their respective divisions, but each could easily finish third as they're both only one point back. That would still mean not having home ice advantage for a first round playoff series, but it also would allow for them to avoid division champs in Round 1. Only the Flames have a chance to move up to second in their division (currently only three points back in the Pacific), but the home ice edge tonight is huge as Nashville is actually tied for the fewest number of regulation losses at home in the Conference. Go w/ them. 

The Flames have been quite hot as of late. They've won 12 of 14, but enter tonight off a loss. They lost at Washington Tuesday night, 4-2, as they allowed 40 shots on goal. There's really no shame in that defeat as Washington is arguably the best team in the league and it marked the 1st time in 12 starts that goalie Brian Elliot lost. But I can't help but think Calgary is set to regress some. As hot as Elliott has been of late, his save percentage on the road this season is just .897. Much of this season has seen him be considered somewhat of a "bust" given how much he was paid to leave St. Louis. Over the L5 games, Calgary has averaged only 26.4 shots on goal and they will again be w/o rookie forward Matthew Tkachuck here as he's serving out a two-game suspension. 

The Preds have won four of five and have not played since Monday's easy 3-1 win over hapless Arizona. That game saw Craig Smith finally get back on track w/ a couple of assists. Now despite the fact that Nashville has been a solid home team this year, they have struggled to beat Calgary in the past here at Bridgestone Arena. They lost 6-5 here to the Flames last month, which was the fourth straight home loss to them. The road team has won both matchups this year. But that's due to turn as I said earlier that Nashville is tied for the fewest regulation home losses in the West w/ only eight. They've been unfortunate in the sense that they've lost seven times past regulation at home, but that lack of luck is due to start going the other way. Pekka Rinne has been pretty consistent between the pipes for the Preds and recent road wins against both San Jose and Washington show me what this side is capable of doing. 8* Nashville

8* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): The way things stand now, the Rangers are likely to finish fourth in the ultra-tough Metro, a division which calls four of the top six teams in the league home. That's actually not a bad position to be in as I'd rather play whomever wins the Atlantic as opposed to any of their division bretheren. Also, the Blueshirts have consistently proven they can win away from MSG. Their 26-9 SU road record is a league-best and they just won at Minnesota Saturday. Here, they draw a much easier foe, New Jersey, who happens to be the worst team in the entire Eastern Conference. On paper, this sets up as a very easy two points for New York tonight.

Losers of 12 of their last 13, the Devils have just been awful of late. They've been shut out three different times during the losing skid while also giving up an average of 3.46 goals per game. Even more embarrassing is that they've dropped games to Arizona and Colorado, the two worst teams in the league. Both losses came in regulation. They are also 0-3 SU this year vs. the Rangers, so this has hardly been an ideal matchup. One could argue that the Devils actually outplayed Columbus Sunday (outshot them 36-27), but they ultimately fell victim to TWO penalty shots. No team averages fewer shots on goal than this one, however, and as a result they rank 28th in the league in goals per game. Even the once-reliable Cory Schneider has hit the skids w/ a dreadful .837 save percentage his L4 starts.

Despite a 2-3 record, the Rangers have typically controlled the puck their L5 games. They've outshot opponents - on average - 32.8 to 26.8 per game. Saturday, they really took it to a very good Minnesota team. Making that win all the more impressive is that it was the second game of a back to back (had lost at home to Florida the previous night). The Rangers have now won seven of their last eight road games. The loss of Henrik Lundqvist hasn't really seemed to matter as Antti Raanta has really stepped up. The team is 15-8 w/ him between the pipes this season and he has a .933 save percentage on the road. 8* NY Rangers

10* San Jose (8:35 ET): The Sharks appeared to be rolling towards a Pacific Division crown, but all of a sudden have dropped two straight and seen their lead shrink to just four points. They have three teams hot on their heels - Anaheim, Calgary and Edmonton - so they better turn things around quickly. Fortunately, tonight they draw Dallas, who is all but eliminated from playoff contention. Even at home, I can't see the Stars competing as they simply give up way too many goals. Only four teams in the league have a worse goal differential than Dallas.

San Jose, meanwhile, is third in the league in goals allowed. They are off a tough 2-1 loss to Anaheim Saturday night, a game in which they outshot the Ducks 34-27. That followed a poor performance (also at home) where they lost 4-1 to St. Louis. But I'm still calling for a result similar to what we saw between these two teams just eight days ago. In San Jose, the Sharks won 5-1 and that was despite going 0 for 5 on the power play. Not only does Dallas rank second from the bottom in the league in goals allowed, their penalty kill is dead last. Over its last five games, the Stars have allowed 22 goals on just 26 shots per game. That works out to an absolutely atrocious save percentage of .835.

Overall, the Stars are just 8-23 this season when facing a team with a winning record. San Jose obviously has a massive edge between the pipes in this one, led by Martin Jones, whose save percentage in the L4 games is .931. The likely starter for Dallas is Kari Lehtonen and his save percentage in his L4 starts is .855. There's also no Jason Spezza skating tonight. The Sharks have been one of the league's better road teams (19-12-3), so I trust them in this spot. 10* San Jose

10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): While neither has been officially eliminated from contention, a lot would certainly have to break right for either the Flyers or Hurricanes to make the playoffs. The two Metro rivals are tied w/ 72 points apiece, which puts them seven back of the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. It's not just the deficit that would have to be made up that makes the playoffs seem unlikely. There's also the fact that there's a number of teams in front of them that would have to be jumped. Only three teams in the Conference currently have fewer points. So, who has the edge? I'll side with the home team as Carolina has a league low nine road wins and finds itself in the second game of a back to back.

The 'Canes have actually won B2B games, both at home. They downed Minnesota and Nashville, which is pretty impressive. But those wins have also made it more affordable to go against them here. They were outshot by the Wild (31-24) and then last night were able to take an early lead (scored just 0:29 in). In fact, goals scored in the first and final 30 seconds of the game, the latter actually coming short-handed, were the difference. This being the second game of a back to back means Cam Ward is likely to start between the pipes and this season he has a save percentage below .900 on the road. Again, no team has fewer road wins than this one (Colorado is tied). This is the start of a four-game trip and by the end of it, I expect the season to be "all over but the shouting." 

The Flyers haven't played since Thursday when they look a bad loss (6-2) at New Jersey. But the last time they played at home, they were able to shut out the Penguins (who are tops in the league in scoring), 4-0! So again, the value of home ice here comes into play. The Flyers have beaten the Canes four of the last five times they've played host, including 6-3 back in October. They managed just 19 shots on goal against the Devils, but should get far more scoring chances here. Goalie Steve Mason has a winning record at home this season as does the team. 10* Philadelphia

10* Anaheim (10:05 ET): St. Louis "got me" two nights ago w/ a 3-1 win at Los Angeles. It was their fifth straight win as they try and lock down one of the final playoff spots in the Western Conference. But I'm willing to bet they can't make it two in a row out on the West Coast. They are about to do the dreaded "California trip" of LA >> Anaheim >> San Jose in four nights. Recently, the league-leading Capitals did this trip and went 0-3. If that can happen to the best team in the league, then a mediocre outfit like the Blues should stumble as well. Anaheim hasn't played since beating Washington 5-2 on Sunday and also has revenge on its mind for a 4-3 loss at St. Louis last week. Go w/ the home team! 

Anaheim is currently tied for second in the Pacific w/ red-hot Calgary (who has won 10 straight!). Realistically, no one is catching first place San Jose, who has a nine-point lead w/ 13 games to play. But right behind the Ducks is Edmonton (who won last night). Remember that finishing in the top three in the division guarantees you a playoff spot. Finishing second would give the Ducks home ice advantage in a first round playoff series. So, yes, I'd say tonight's game is just as important for them as it is for St. Louis. With an eight-point lead over ninth place (in the conference) LA, the Ducks are probably safely in the playoffs. But how they position themselves for the tournament is key.

Home ice advantage for a first round series would be quite nice for a Ducks team that is already 22-8-3 SU at the Pond this season. Here, they hold opponents to just 2.1 goals per game. They are 7th in the league in goals allowed and fourth on the penalty kill, so this is a tough team to score on. Something else to consider is they'd be higher in the standings were it not for 10 overtime losses this year. While it wasn't an overtime game last Friday in St. Louis, they did lose in the final 20 seconds of regulation. It's important to note that the Ducks were coming off a hard fought 1-0 win in Chicago the night prior and didn't have the red-hot Jonathan Bernier in goal as a result. Bernier will start tonight and has a .944 save percentage his L4 starts. Though it's been much better of late, goaltending has been an issue much of the year for St. Louis and I think it's only a matter of time before it reverts back to previous levels. 10* Anaheim

10* Los Angeles (10:05 ET): This is a crucial game in the race for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. The way it stands now, the Kings have little to no chance of finishing in the top three in the Pacific (guaranteed playoff spot), leaving the Wild Card as their only opportunity. Even finishing in the top four feels like "wishful thinking" considering they're currently seven points back of Edmonton. In contrast, St. Louis does have a shot at finishing in the top three in the Central as they're just two points back of Nashville. They are also three points up on the Kings for that final Wild Card spot. So, yes, tonight's game is quite important, particularly from the LA side of things. With Jonathan Quick now back between the pipes, I believe they'll come through here.

Quick missing much of the year threatened to derail the Kings' entire season. But they actually still rank 5th in goals allowed! This is due in large part to their ability to limit shot opportunies. As they annually seem to do, they lead the league in this department, allowing just 25.9 per game. That number even slightly dips (down to 24.3) here on home ice. Therefore, considering all of the above, I've been a bit disappointed in the team's overall performance this year. But with Quick back in the fold, they can obviously make plenty of noise if they do make the playoffs. Quick has led the team to B2B home victories over Nashville and Washington, the latter being particularly impressive as they allowed just 19 shots against the top team in the league. Since he returned, the Kings are 4-1 SU w/ Quick starting between the pipes. The loss came in OT, at Minnesota.

St. Louis has had lousy goaltending for much of this season. They rank near the bottom of the league w/ a .900 save percentage. Carter Hutton has actually played pretty well in limited duty of late, but for some reason the team continues to put Jake Allen out on the ice. Though Allen has been in goal for three of the team's four straight wins, his save percentage for the year barely cracks .900. He allowed three goals Friday vs. Anaheim. The Blues have been somewhat saved by their special teams this year as their numbers aren't particularly inspiring when at even strength. The last five times they have played the Kings, they have failed to score more than two goals. That includes a 5-1 loss here back in January. They managed just 22 shots in that game and didn't even have to deal w/ Quick. 10* Los Angeles

10* Chicago (12:35): This is quite obviously a very important game in the Central Division. Chicago had put together a seven-game win streak to temporarily take over first place, but as you can see, that was short-lived. They've since dropped B2B games, to Anaheim and at Detroit. So now it's Minnesota back in front (by three points) after they crushed Florida, 7-4, on Friday night. These teams met twice in February w/ the Blackhawks winning both times. I was on them the first time as it was a very advantageous spot. The Wild were in the second game of a back to back (thus rested Devan Dubnyk) while the 'Hawks had been off the three days prior. But there was no such edge when they won in the Twin Cities yet again, two weeks later and faced Dubnyk. This time, they get the Wild in the famed "Madhouse on Madison" and I look for Chicago to make it three in a row over their division rival.

The Hawks went 9-1 in February, scoring four or more goals in every win. Then they opened March w/ three straight wins. But then it's been the B2B losses. A home loss to Anaheim was a bit of a "bad beat" as they outshot the Ducks 43-29, but were shut out 1-0. The following night, Corey Crawford just wasn't very good as he gave up four goals on 29 shots. In retrospect, perhaps it wasn't a wise move to start Crawford on no rest. It also didn't help that they had to face a returning Jimmy Howard. A rare off-game from the top line hurt as well. Still though, I'm willing to bank on a team that's won 12 of 15 overall, on home ice. 

The road team is 3-0 this year when these teams met as Minnesota won here in Chicago back in January. That's a trend I can't really see continuing. The Blackhawks are 22-9-4 on home ice and again the situation favors them. This will be the Wild's third straight road game after playing two in a row in Florida. They'd lost B2B games before steamrolling the Panthers Thursday. Uncharacteristically, they've allowed eight goals the L2 games. Though Minnesota has a 2:1 edge in YTD goal differential compared to Chicago, I remain concerned over the high volume of shots they allow. Per game, it's 34.5 on the road, which is one of the highest numbers in the entire league. Given how much the Blackhawks had been scoring, that could mean trouble - even for a goaltender as prolific as Dubnyk. 10* Chicago

8* Ottawa (7:05 ET): The Senators are second in the Atlantic Division and thanks to a five-game win streak find themselves only two points back of Montreal. I can't think of an easier way to rectify that two-point discrepancy than by drawing Colorado, who is without question the worst team in the league. Sure, the Avs have actually posted B2B wins, something they'd previously done only three other times this season. But they've yet to win three in a row at any point this year. The Avs are dead last in both goals scored and allowed for a differential of -88. They are already officially eliminated from playoff contention, so with so much on the line here for Ottawa, I expect them to roll to victory. All things considered, this is a REALLY cheap price on the ML. 

The Avs' two wins came against Carolina and New Jersey, probably the two worst teams in the East. They were outshot in both games, yet somehow managed to score six times on just 47 total shots. That's rare for a team w/ a shot percentage of just 7.0% for the year. Prior to the B2B wins, Colorado had lost four in a row, getting outscored 15-2 in the process. Included in that stretch was a 2-1 loss at Ottawa where they were dominated a lot worse than that score indicates (outshot 42-23). Special teams are not good for the Avs either as they rank 29th on the power play and 25th on the penalty kill. They were pretty lucky to beat New Jersey Thursday as the Devils controlled the puck for much of the second and third periods.

Ottawa has nearly doubled its opponents up in scoring during the five-game win streak, 17-9. The streak started w/ the aformentioned win over the Avs and then after a big win over Columbus, they've beaten a couple of Western Conf also-rans, Dallas and Arizona. It did take OT to overcome the Coyotes Thursday, but they were still able to win despite allowing 41 shots. Craig Anderson figures to be back in net tonight after Mike Condon silence the Coyotes. Anderson has been hot w/ a .939 save percentage his L4 starts and has a .941 save percentage this year on the road. 8* Ottawa

10* Pittsburgh (9:05 ET): The Penguins treated me so well their last time out that I'll come right back w/ them again. An early deficit Wednesday night could not deny them as they blew by Winnipeg 7-4. Tonight they are in Edmonton. It's a superior opponent, yes, but the Oilers are still not at the Pens' level. This is the top scoring offense in the league and a team desperate to earn home ice advantage for what is guaranteed to be a challenging first round playoff series against a fellow team from the Metro. I say that b/c the Penguins have the fewest number of regulation losses at home in the entire league. The Oilers will simply be happy to "just" make the playoffs after a decade long absence from them. Therefore, I look for the better team to "show up" here. 

Currently tied for third place in the Pacific (w/ rival Calgary), Edmonton is in good position to make the postseason. They are seven points clear of the second Wild Card team, which is St. Louis. So even falling to fourth in the division would not be terrible, even though it would obviously mean a tougher 1st round opponent. There's been a ton of improvement with this team and they actually own the fourth best goal differential in the West at +14. But that number pales in comparison to Pittsburgh having outscored opponents by 46 goals this season, the fourth best differential in the league. Like the Pens, Edmonton's strength lies on the offensive end (12th in goals scored per game), but the problem here is that Pittsburgh is simply better at goal scoring. You also have to wonder if a young team will start to wear down the stretch.

As referenced above, the Pens rolled Wednesday in Winnipeg. It was their third straight win overall and they've scored at least four times each time out. Edmonton is in off a loss, 4-1 to the Islanders on Tuesday, here at home. With the Oilers goaltenders already experiencing a rough patch, they're about to be tested as never before. Cam Talbot has an .886 save percentage his L4 starts and has allowed seven goals on the L52 shots faced. In addition to leading the league in goals, the Penguins also are #1 in shots. Matt Murray was a bit shaky early vs. Winnipeg, but the Pens goalie still owns a superb .947 save percentage in 12 non-conference starts this year. Filling in for the injured Marc-Andre Fleury, Murray has a 23-13 WL record this season. The Pens are also 16-3 SU this year after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): This shapes up as a VERY important game in the Eastern Conference playoff race. We know that one of the two Wild Card spots is going to the Metro (top four teams are all among best in the league). Right now, the fifth place team in that division (Islanders) also holds the second. But right behind (by one point) is Toronto, the fourth place team over in the Atlantic. The Leafs could also get into the playoffs by finishing third in their own division, which would mean making up a four-point discrepancy. Also still alive is the sixth place team in the Metro, Philadelphia, but their only hope is catching the Islanders. Tonight, Toronto hosts Philly and I side w/ the home team as I was never a believer in the Flyers even back when they were winning 10 straight games earlier in the season.  

Both of these teams have played 65 games (only 17 remaining). Philadelphia actually has two more wins (31 to 29), but also two fewer points due to the Leafs' league-leading 14 "loser points" (from losses in OT or shootout). Toronto is the better team though. They've actually outscored their opponents over the course of the year while the Flyers' goal differential is an ugly -23. If they ultimately fail to make the playoffs, the Maple Leafs will likely be kicking themselves over their record in shootouts, which is currently 1-8. They've also blown seven two-goal leads in the third period. The team had lost five in a row, three of those coming after regulation. But that streak was snapped w/ a 3-2 win over Detroit on Tuesday. After tonight, the Leafs depart for a three-game road trip in the Southeast. So, again, you can see how critical it is to get the two points here.

Offensively, there are few issues for Toronto. They rank sixth in the league in goals per game and third on the power play. Even the penalty kill is a solid ninth. The only issue then is giving up too many even strength goals as they rank 23rd in goals allowed overall. Fortunately, Philadelphia has been even more generous to its opponents. The Flyers are 24th in goals allowed and also tied for the third worst save percentage in the league at .898. Now tonight's likely starter Steve Mason has played well of late (.954 save percentage L4 starts), but that's unlikely to continue. Unlikely to be repeated is the team scoring six times again like they did at Buffalo two nights ago.  For Toronto, Frederik Andersen has been pretty solid between the pipes. In virtually every area, the Leafs grade out as a better team than the Flyers. 10* Toronto  

10* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET): All season long, the Penguins have been locked into a very tight, four-team race in the Metro. Right now, they are tied for third with Rangers, two points back of second place Columbus and seven points back of President's Trophy leader Washington. Given that no team has lost fewer times in regulation on home ice than this one, home ice advantage for at least the 1st round should be a massive priority for the Pens. That means getting the two points tonight on the road, at the expense of an also-ran like Winnipeg, would be huge. They've certainly had the Jets number through the years, winning 42 of the past 57 matchups dating back to when the franchise was known as the Atlanta Thrashers. They beat them 4-3 just a little under a month ago.

Pittsburgh enters this game w/ two full days rest and off B2B victories, both at home. They scored nine goals against Tampa Bay and Buffalo and I see no reason why the scoring should subside here. No team has scored more goals this season than have the Pens. They're facing a team that is 27th in goals allowed. Pittsburgh is also 7-3 this year when playing w/ exactly two days rest. Their third ranked power play should be able to take advantage of the Jets' 26th ranked penalty kill. As for the other end of the ice, Matt Murray is likely to handle the goaltending duties, which is fine as he's proven himself to be a capable backup. His save percentage in 11 non-conf games this year is .953!

Winnipeg lost its last game,  3-2 to San Jose. For the fourth straight game (all here at home), they did manage to outshoot their opponent. But that doesn't matter when the goaltending remains so poor. Both Connor Hellebuyck and Michael Hutchinson have struggled all year. Hellebuyck is the likely starter tonight and he carries a pretty woeful .892 save percentage against non-conf opponents. This is the Jets' fifth straight home game and while they won two in a row by a score of 9-1, those came at the expense of St. Louis and Colorado. The losses came to first place teams, Minnesota and San Jose. The Penguins are on par w/ the teams that beat the Jets. Winnipeg is just 9-17 vs. the Eastern Conference this season. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The Blues treated me well Sunday as I took them and they recorded a shutout win. But that was against Colorado, the worst team in the league. Now they move up in class to face one of the league's best, Minnesota, who has more points and a better goal differential than every other team in the West. However, a once relatively comfortable lead in the Central Division has grown a lot closer thanks to Chicago getting red hot. The Wild enter the day w/ only a one point edge in the standings over the Blackhawks (who have won 7 straight). St. Louis has just a one point lead for the final Wild Card, but in a game where both sides have a tremendous sense of urgency, I'll defer to the stronger club that's on home ice.

The home team has won all four head to head meetings between these two this season. Three of those games were played before the New Year and the most recent took place here in the Twin Cities on Jan 26th. Both games here in Minnesota have seen the Blues score just one time. The Wild's goaltending remains top notch as long as Devan Dubnyk is between the pipes. He leads the league in wins and save percentage, plus is second in goals against average. The team has won 20 of the 27 times he's started at home this season. In the last two games, Dubnyk has allowed just two goals total on 61 shots. Since losing to Chicago in overtime back on 2.8 (was a very unfavorable spot), Minnesota has gone 6-3 SU w/ two of the losses coming by 1-0 scores. A 3-1 win over San Jose (on Sunday) was their latest effort. 

In addition to ranking 4th in goals allowed, the Wild are also 2nd in goals scored. This is problematic for a St. Louis team that has gotten shaky goaltending much of this year. Blues goaltenders have combined for an .899 save percentage, one of the worst marks in the entire league. Though it was a shutout win in Colorado Sunday, note that the Avs are the league's worst offense. The Blues themselves were shutout in Winnipeg on Friday, at the time their fifth consecutive defeat. They scored only six goals total in the five-game losing streak. They've consistently been outshot of late (even by Colorado) and if this one comes down to the goaltenders, then its a clear edge for the Wild. 8* Minnesota

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The Blues are in dire need of two points tonight. They are on a five-game losing streak, which leaves them six points back of the Predators for third place in the Central Division (top 3 teams in each divison are guaranteed a playoff berth). Not only that, but they are now one point back of Los Angeles for the final Wild Card in the conference and just one point ahead of the team that just shut them out Friday (3-0), Winnipeg. Luckily, St. Louis couldn't have picked an easier opponent to face off with here. Colorado is without question the worst team in the league and is coming off their own loss to Winnipeg (6-1) last night.

How awful are the Avalanche? Well, consider they are last in the league in scoring, last in goals allowed, 29th on the power play and 24th on the penalty kill. Not surprisingly then, they have the fewest points in the league (37) and are 16 points back of the second worst team (Arizona). This may in fact be the worst team we've seen in many years in the NHL. Consider that Toronto had the fewest points in the league last year, but w/ 69. The Avs would almost have to double their current mark and with less than 20 games remaining that's simply not happening. They were just outscored 12-2 on a three-game road trip. Even on home ice, their record is just 8-20-2. Overall, they have dropped 22 of their last 27 games. Why expect any kind of turnaround tonight? 

The Blues aren't exactly in fine form here either w/ them getting outscored 14-6 during the five-game losing streak. But the difference is that previously they had been playing well. They'd actually won six straight before the current losing streak began and that was w/ three shutouts. Three of the team's five losses have been by one goal. After having the last game off, goalie Jake Allen (.921 save percentage L4 starts) should be ready to go here. St. Louis also has a massive edge on special teams in this matchup as they rank 7th on the power play and 8th in penalty killing. Locked in such a tight race for that final playoff spot, the Blues simply cannot afford to lose to the worst team in the league. 8* St. Louis

10* Florida (7:05 ET): Following a brief post All Star Break resurgence, the Panthers have begun to plummet. What's been particularly disappointing about the recent setbacks is that the majority of them have come here on home ice. However, Thursday's 2-1 loss at Philadelphia may have been the most disappointing of all. It was a game not lacking in shots (89 total between the two sides!) and the Panthers wasted what was somewhat of a yeoman's effort from Roberto Luongo in goal. However, hope arrives tonight in the form of a visit from the Dallas Stars. Central Division champs a year ago, the Stars' long-standing issues between the pipes have really come home to roost this season. Also, what's really incredible is the fact their last road win came all the way back on Jan 17th! Therefore, I've got no problem backing the Panthers in this one.

Florida did snap a three-game home losing streak its last time here, beating Carolina 3-2 in a shootout. But then, as I said earlier, they fell in another SO to the Flyers on Thursday. The good news is that they continue to put the puck on the net a ton recently. Over the L5 games, they're averaging 36.2 shots. Really, the team has been a bit unlucky this year at home given that they average 34.1 shots/game (only 2.5 goals per game). But, the good thing here is that they are 9-4 SU after being held to one goal or less in their previous game. As for Dallas, they wasted a strong offensive effort in a 5-4 home loss to the Islanders Thursday. Not only are the Stars 8-16 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals, they are also 4-13 SU after scoring 4+ goals themselves. 

Dallas has lost its last six road games, all in regulation, and this will be their 1st since mid-February. They have just seven road wins all year and are allowing a frightening 3.7 goals per game away from home. This team ranks 28th in the league in goals allowed and even w/ Roberto Luongo out, Florida appears to have a massive goaltending edge in this one. The Stars are last in the league in save percentage (.893) and tonight's likely starter Antii Niemi has been ugly on the road (.869). Meanwhile, the Panthers can turn to James Reimer, who not only has a .939 save percentage his L4 starts, but was also the one in goal for a 3-1 win at Dallas back on New Year's Eve. Reimer made 35 saves in the win. Meanwhile, Niemi was chased from that game after giving up all three goals in the first period. The final (and perhaps biggest?) edge for Florida here resides on the penalty kill. They have the second best PK unit in the league (85.8%) while Dallas ranks 30th (dead last) in that department at 73.7%. The Panthers allowed just two power play goals in all of February and were 4 for 4 on the PK vs. Philly. Florida is still in contention for a playoff spot in the East while Dallas' chances out West are all but dead. 10* Florida

8* Calgary (9:05 ET): Detroit's record streak of 25 consecutive seasons making the playoffs is in severe jeopardy. Not that some us weren't anticipating this. Several years of mediocrity have finally caught up w/ this outfit as they are now mired in last place in the Atlantic Division w/ just 60 pts. While they did beat a bad Vancouver team (in overtime) on Tuesday, there are few signs that they are likely to turn things around as their goal differential of -27 ranks as the second worst in the entire Eastern Conference. They also have the 30th (ie last) ranked power play. Thus, I don't like their chances tonight as they stay on the other side of North America for a date w/ a - pardon the pun - hot Flames team.

Calgary has won its last five games, none more important than the last one when they beat the Kings 2-1 in overtime. That one gave them a little more breathing room as they continue to lead the Wild Card chase in the Western Conference. They are also only four point back of second place in their own division. This five-game stretch hasn't been completely dominant, but they have outscored opponents 18-11. They've now allowed two or fewer goals in four straight games. Credit there mainly goes to Brian Elliott, who is finally living up to his advanced billing. The team's big FA acquisition in the offseason now has a .923 save percentage his L4 stars. It's also helpful that the Flames rank in the top seven in the league in shot suppression. 

Detroit has managed to stay alive w/ wins in three of the past four games. Two of those wins came at the expense of Washington and Pittsburgh, which is impressive. But they were actually outshot by both of those teams and have managed fewer than 30 shots in goal in five consecutive contests. Even less inspiring has been the play of goaltender Petr Mrazek. The Red Wings last won B2B road games back in early December, two games that went past regulation. 8* Calgary

8* Buffalo (7:05 ET): While the postseason was long ago rendered a pipe dream for Arizona, Buffalo still has an outside shot at grabbing one of the final spots in the Eastern Conference. Finishing in the top three of the Atlantic seems tough, but only six points back of the second Wild Card should give them hope. That all being said, the Sabres certainly aren't playing like a team that wants to compete for Lord Stanley's Cup. They come into tonight on a four-game losing streak, one of the setbacks coming at the hands of these very Coyotes. Tuesday was even more disappointing as they blew a 4-2 lead here at home to Nashville and fell in overtime. But considering how bad the 'Yotes are, I can't see the Sabres losing to them twice within a week.

Arizona is clearly the second worst team in the league, better than only Colorado (another team that beat Buffalo recently). They have the second fewest points and the second worst goal differential. They are 27th in goals scored and 29th in goals allowed. Special teams are no help as they rank 27th on the power play and 25th on the penalty kill. After beating Buffalo on Sunday, they dropped a game in Boston by a score of 4-1 on Tuesday. That latest loss saw Alexander Burmistrov stretchered off after a brutal hit from the Bruins' Colin Miller. Goaltender Mike Smith continued his miserable season by allowing four goals on 14 shots and was yanked. His save percentage his L4 starts is now .856 and he's likely to be in net again here. Arizona has the worst shot differential in the league and because they allow so many, Smith rarely has a "fighting chance." The Coyotes were sellers at the trade deadline, so they're an even weaker team now.

Not only did the Sabres blow a two-goal advantage (twice!) against Nashville Tuesday, the same held true Sunday at Arizona. That and the loss that preceded it (at Colorado) were very damaging for a team on the fringes of playoff contention. That's what makes tonight so important. Goaltending woes have been a concern recently, but at least Robin Lehner has a .925 save percentage at home. Arizona has been a dreadful road team as well, getting outscored by a frightening 1.3 goal per game margin, which has translated into an 8-19-4 record. One key edge for the Sabres in this game is that their power play ranks fourth in the league. Having gone just 2 for their last 17 when on the man advantage, don't be surprised if they notch one or two here. 8* Buffalo

10* Los Angeles (9:05 ET): This shapes up as a near desperation spot for the Kings, who lost in overtime last night. Either them or Calgary likely makes the playoffs (maybe both?), but the way things stand right now, LA would not be in the top eight. Last night's 5-4 loss at Minnesota leaves them five points back of the Flames and also two points back of the Blues for the final Wild Card spot. There's no shame in leaving w/ a "loser's point" when playing the Wild, but the reality is the Kings need to start winning games. Tonight is a big game, not only for playoff implications, but also because it marks the debut of the recently acquired Ben Bishop in goal. I'm backing the Kings.

From Los Angeles' perspective, Calgary is in an eviable position. The Flames have won four straight and hold the top Wild Card spot w/ 70 points. However, they've still been outscored over the course of the season and statistically aren't that impressive. They were actually outshot badly in each of the L2 games, wins over Florida and Carolina. Getting the puck on net w/ any kind of regularity is always a chore against the Kings, who again lead the league in fewest shots allowed per game. Against Carolina Sunday, the Flames were outshot 35-24 even though they won 3-1. Shockingly, they went 4-0-1 on the recently completed road trip, but this recent scoring surge is something I don't see continuing. 

The Kings have given up more shots than usual the L2 games. However, their shot differential per game is still #2 in the entire league. Jonathan Quick was the one in goal those last two games and while he was sharp in his return (after a four-month absence) against Anaheim on Saturday, he was less than stellar last night. That paves the way for Bishop to make his Kings debut tonight. Acquired from the Lightning, Bishop is by no means having a career year, but ironically, he had been playing better than ever right before getting dealt (.953 save percentage in Feb). The Kings have dominated their division rival the L2 seasons, taking all five meetings, including a 5-0 shutout back in November. 10* Los Angeles

10* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): The Atlantic Division is nowhere near as strong as its counterpart in the Eastern Conference, the Metro. This is a point I've harped on all season long. The four top teams in the Conference all reside in the Metro and quite frankly they may be the top four teams in the entire NHL. Over in the Atlantic, Montreal has led most of the way, but Ottawa is now "hot on their heels," just two points back. The Senators won last night, in Florida, by a score of 2-1. While this marks the second night of a back to back for them, the Lightning have patiently been waiting in the wings ever since Thursday's 3-2 home loss to Calgary. With the last three days off, that's a big advantage and I see TB exacting revenge for a 5-2 home loss to Ottawa last month.

The Senators are not particularly dominant in any one area. They've actually been outshot in each of the previous three games, so winning twice should be considered at least a little bit fortunate. They've scored only four times in the three games as well, so credit the goaltending, specifically Craig Anderson, who has been the one between the pipes for all three games. But with this being the second game of a back to back and the team's fourth road game in the last six days, expect Mike Condon to be the one in net tonight. Condon is pretty average and lost his last start (2/19 vs. Winnipeg) when he was able to stop only 17 of 20  shots. He did beat the Lightning earlier this month, but only faced 21 shots there.

Tonight's game is the start of a new era for Tampa Bay as longtime goaltender Ben Bishop was dealt to the Kings at the deadline. That makes Andrei Vasilevsky the new unquestioned #1. Many may read this as a sign of "waving the proverbial white flag," but as I've said before Bishop's overall level of play had fallen this year. While the team's record w/ Vasilevsky in net could definitely be better, the #19 pick in the 2012 Draft certainly offers a lot of promise. Ottawa has won only one time this year after playing three consecutive road games and it came early on (November 1st), at home, against Carolina. Tonight matches their longest road trip of the year. The first time they wrapped up a four-game swing was on the West Coast vs. Anaheim, back on Dec 11. They lost that game 5-1. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Nashville (5:05 ET): Two teams in the Western Conference trying to solidify their standings meet Sunday in the Music City. Edmonton comes in tied for second place in the Pacific Division (74 points) and has a realistic shot at catching first place San Jose. Meanwhile, Nashville is on a bit of shakier ground w/ no realistic shot at moving up from third place in the Central (69 points) and they have St. Louis hot on their heels. So getting the two points here at home shapes up as really critical from the Preds' perspective. While this is the second game of a back to back for them, it's also the Oilers' fifth straight road game over a nine-day span. Interestingly, both teams played Washington their last time out. Edmonton lost 2-1 Friday, but then Nashville won 5-2 last night!

Only two teams in the league can claim fewer home loss in regulation than can the Predators w/ 7. The last two games have been a real contrast in terms of class of opponent. First they hosted lowly Colorado (worst team in the league) and beat them 4-2. Then it was a game vs. the best team in the league (Washington) and they beat them 5-2. Scoring has not been an issue of late as the team's last nine games have all gone Over. Nashville has scored four or more goals themselves in seven of those games! What's really impressive about last night is that they were able to score five times on only 26 shot attempts. That was the sixth straight home game w/ 4+ goals. Granted, they didn't have to face Braden Holtby (Edmonton did Friday). But right now, the Preds have a couple players that are on fire at the offensive end. First and foremost is Filip Forsberg, who has seven goals in three games this week. Following a similar path is Roman Josi, who leads all defensemen in the league w/ six goals and six assists since Feb 4. 

Nashville has already beaten Edmonton twice this season. That extends their head to head win streak to eight straight over the Oilers the L3 seasons. In both wins this season, the Preds' unusual second period dominance (league best +31 goal diff) was the key. Both times saw Pekka Rinne defeat Cam Talbot and that's the goaltending matchup again here. Rinne is due to improve from some lackluster showings, in my opinion, while Talbot is due to regress. The Oilers do have 18 road wins this year, but you have to wonder how much this trip has taken out of them. This is their fourth straight game in the Southeast (long way away from home!) in the last six days. 10* Nashville

8* Columbus (5:05 ET): The Blue Jackets were one of the big stories of the 1st half of the season, particularly back in December when they didn't lose a single game. It wound up being a 15-game win streak, but unfortunately they've managed to go just 10-11-1 since. In the brutally tough Metro, they now actually find themselves in fourth place, which is pretty amazing when you think about it. Most NHL observers, myself included, would call this one of the top five teams in the league. Unfortunately though, so are the other top three teams in the Division. In fifth place resides the Islanders, today's opponent for C-Bus. The Isles are desperately trying to make a run for the second Wild Card in the Eastern Conference. They've won three straight, but the gap between them and the Blue Jackets remains quite significant. I feel that the money line here does not properly account for said gap. Take the home team. 

A big edge for the Blue Jackets here is that they have been off since Sunday. That last game saw them lose 4-3 (here at home) to Nashville after rallying back from an early two goal deficit. As disappointing as that loss was, it should have the Jackets motivated here. As you might guess, the long layoff is key to my choice on this matchup. Columbus is a perfect 6-0 this season when taking the ice w/ at least three days rest. They continue to do a good job of getting the puck on the net as well. It's been six straight games w/ at least 32 shots on goal. So, theoretically, they should be winning more. Prior to the Nashville, goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky had pretty much been lights out. He still has a .931 save percentage at home this year. This is also a revenge game for the Blue Jackets as they lost 4-2 up in Brooklyn last month. 

While Columbus has enjoyed plenty of time off leading into this game, the Isles will be playing their third road game in five days. So far, they've won at Detroit and Montreal thanks to giving up just one goal total. But can goaltender Thomas Greiss continue this hot streak of his? I'm not so sure about that. More importantly, it will be difficult for the Isles to score moving forward if the continue to put the puck on net so few times. They've averaged just 23 the L2 games. Note there has previously been four times this season where New York has been on a three-game win streak. They have lost the next time out every time. Columbus is basically a better team in every regard, so while they didn't need the added advantage of all this time off, it definitely helps! 8* Columbus

10* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): Here we have a team that treated me well earlier in the well against a team that did not. I'll stick w/ the one I like, that being Tampa Bay. It's been a tough season overall for the Lightning (injuries!), but they did win Sunday at Colorado 3-2 in overtime. That was when I took them. They followed that up w/ an even more impressive win on Tuesday, 4-1 over Edmonton here at home. Tonight, it's the other Alberta team invading. Calgary got one over on me Tuesday, beating Nashville 6-5 in overtime. A quick start there was huge for the Flames as they actually blew a 4-1 lead. This being their third straight road game could catch up w/ them, especially considering the L2 both went to overtime. I like the Lightning here. 

Despite all the injuries and struggles, Tampa Bay is only four points out of playoff position. They've gone 5-0-2 the last 7 games as the offense has come alive since the All-Star Break. They've scored three or more goals in every game but one during the 5-0-2 surge. But the play of goaltender Ben Bishop has been just as critical, if not moreso. He has won his L5 starts and has an eye-popping .964 save percentage in the last four. It's also nice to see the Lightning limiting the number of shots from their opponents recently. They held the Oilers to only 21 shots on goal Tuesday, the third straight game where they outshot their opponent. Back in a December meeting w/ the Flames (in Calgary), they allowed only 22 shots. They won that game 6-3 w/ Bishop in goal.

The Flames have been outscored over the course of the season, which is not indicative of a team that should make the playoffs. They currently occupy the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference, but it's a tenuous lead over the Kings and Jets (just two points). There's really not any one area that Calgary excels in. Their overall save percentage of .900 ranks near the bottom of the league. That's largely due to Brian Elliott, who has been a major free agent disappointment. Elliott, who is expected to be in goal tonight, has a save percentage of .883 on the road this year. The team has a losing record when he is between the pipes while conversely, Tampa Bay is 9-5 when Bishop is the starter at home. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Nashville (8:05 ET): If the playoffs started today (they don't!), then the Predators would be in as a Wild Card. But it's a pretty precarious lead over a crowded field and the club would probably feel a whole lot better if they could move up to third place in the Central Division, a spot they currently trail St. Louis by three points. The Preds have outscored opponents this season and are coming off a huge 4-3 win at Columbus on Sunday. There is some concern here as it's been almost a month since they've posted B2B wins. But they're on home ice tonight, a place where their record is 16-7-6 while holding opponents to just 2.4 goals per game. Calgary invades tonight and the Flames would be the other Wild Card team if the playoffs started today. But while Nashville has outscored opponents this year, Calgary has not w/ a -14 goal differential. As you can probably tell, I'm on the home team here.

Calgary has suffered a couple of bad losses recently. One was an awful 5-0 setback at home against Arizona. The other came Saturday at Vancouver by a score of 2-1. The Flames next four games will all be on the road, in the Southeast. That could be a problem as they come in averaging only 2.1 goals per game away from home this year. They are only scoring on 7.3% of shot attempts on the road. At the same time, their own save percentage is near the bottom of the league. Brian Elliott was supposed to be a savior this year, but instead he's got a save percentage below .900. Chad Johnson is the other option and he's been even worse of late (.825 L4 starts!). 

Pekka Rinne has experienced similar struggles of late for Nashville, but his season-long numbers indicate a bounce back is likely. He has a .921 save percentage for the year at home. Meanwhile, all indicators show the Preds' offense is officially clicking. It's been seven straight games w/ at least 30 shots on goal and they've scored 22 times in the last six games. Calgary has scored only 10 goals in its last five games. Their power play is also 0 for its last 16. 8* Nashville

PLAY IS SUPPOSED TO BE BLUES UNDER!

8* Tampa Bay (8:05 ET): Every single objective measure points to Colorado being the worst team in the league. They have the fewest points, by far (34). They are last in the league in both goals scored and allowed, leading to a horrendous -76 goal differential for the year. Consider that there is only ONE other team (Arizona) that's been outscored by more than 30 goals this year. Only seven teams have a differential below -17! However, tonight, we do find the Avs off a rare win. They won at Carolina Friday, 2-1. Given the unique circumstance of the Avs being off a win here, I feel it's an appropriate time to fade. Being that they are the home team tonight, the money line is more than reasonable. Even on home ice, the Avs are just 7-19-1 SU this year. 

Tampa Bay has been hit hard by injury this year and as a result finds themselves in second to last place in the Atlantic w/ only 58 points. But the playoffs are no pipe dream as they are actually only six points back of third place, not to mention the second Wild Card. The team did play last night - and lost 4-3 at Dallas in overtime. But they had won three of four previously w/ the lone loss coming at Minnesota (top team in the West). The offense has come alive a bit recently w/ seven goals scored in the L2 games. The Lightning did outshoot the Stars last night, 37-28. Ben Bishop was NOT in goal Saturday, but is likely to be tonight and that's a big boost considering his pedigree and .937 save percentage his L4 starts. The team has won three straight times w/ Bishop between the pipes. 

Colorado really doesn't do much right and had lost five in a row before Friday's overtime win. Their last regulation victory came all the way back on Feb 7. Their five-game losing streak saw them get outscored 18-6. Predictably, they give up a lot of shots per game (32.2) and none of the goaltending options are particularly attractive. Calvin Pickard is the most likely option tonight as he's the only regular w/ a YTD save percentage above .900 (.902). Special teams also aren't very good for the Avs. There have been only three instances this year where the Avs have won B2B games. One of them was when they opened the season 2-0. This is also a revenge game for the Lightning as they were shutout 4-0 (at home!) very early in the season by the Avs. Since then, Colorado has lost 39 of 52 games overall. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Los Angeles (10:05 ET): The Kings find themselves in a bit a precarious position right now. Obviously, that has a lot to do w/ the fact they've been w/o goaltender extraordinaire Jonathan Quick this season. But the bottom line is they are currently 10 points back of the top three in the Pacific Division, which means we're talking Wild Card if they want to make the postseason. As it stands today, it looks like it will be a three-team race for the two WC spots in the Western Conference. One will be whomever doesn't finish in third in the Central - St. Louis or Nashville. The other two are the Kings and Calgary. Tonight, LA hosts a Florida team that has gone on an inexplicable scoring binge recently. It's a virtual "must win" and I'll side with them.

The Panthers have been on an inexplicable scoring binge recently. Over the L3 games, all wins, the team has totaled 17 goals. They've won six of seven overall, scoring 30 goals, but also giving up 23. This is a team that still ranks 22nd in the league in goals per game, mind you, not to mention also has a -15 goal differential for the year. Last night, they got one over on me by downing Anaheim 4-1. I certainly did not see that coming, especially after a 6-5 OT win at San Jose where they'd been outshot 36-22. Once again the Panthers allowed 36 shots to the Ducks. I believe the fact they are playing in the second game of a back to back (on the West Coast, no less) catches up with them here, however. This will be the 1st time in over a month they've had to take the ice w/o rest. They're just 1-3 SU the last four times in this situation. 

Even w/o Quick, the Kings have managed to stay afloat thanks in large part to their always outstanding puck possession numbers. Once again, they lead the league in fewest shots allowed at 25.7 per game. Here at home, that number dips to 24.0. Over the L5 games, they're allowing just 23.8. Therefore, it's certainly disappointing to see they've lost three of four overall. But guess who that one win came against? Florida, by a score of 6-3. That game saw them chase James Reimer from the game in the first period after scoring three times on their first eight shots. They could face Reimer again tonight or more likely Roberto Luongo, who has an ugly .855 save percentage his L4 starts. (Reimer started last night). With the Kings not allowing many shots, their own goalie (Peter Budaj) should start to resume the kind of competent play we've seen from him much oft he season. 10* Los Angeles

8* Anaheim (10:05 ET): As we typically see, Florida has gone on a bit of a mini-surge since making a change behind the bench. They are 10-6-2 the L18 games. But the fact remains that this is not a very good team and certainly a bit of an overachiever, both this year and last. Clearly, they have declined from last year's Atlantic Division winning pace. But even at just 25-20-10 (tied for most non-regulation losses), it's fair to label this team as an overachiever yet again. Even after scoring a total of 13 goals the L2 games, they still have a YTD goal differential of -18. That offensive production we've seen the L2 games is certainly atypical as the Panthers rank only 24th in the league in goals per game (28th on the power play). I expect them to struggle on the remainder of this West Coast trip, starting tonight in Anaheim.

The Ducks have lost four of six, but remain in second place in the Pacific, four points back of struggling San Jose. It also looks like it could be a struggle to hold off third place Edmonton, who I won with last night and is now tied w/ the Ducks w/ 70 points. A very impressive shutout of an excellent Minnesota team on Tuesday certainly helped. Anaheim got a superb effort between the pipes from John Gibson, who turned away all 37 Wild shots. Gibson is expected to be back in goal tonight. He has a .928 save percentage at home this season and as a result the team is 14-8 SU in those games. Gibson stopped 35 of 37 shots in a matchup at Florida two weeks ago, but it was not enough as the Ducks fell 2-1. So, they'll be hungry for revenge here.

As I mentioned earlier, Florida has scored plenty of late, yet their YTD goal differential remains pretty poor. That obviously has a lot to do w/ the poor play they've gotten between the pipes. In the L3 games alone, they've conceded a total of 15 goals. That's pretty awful. In his last four starts, Roberto Luongo has essentially been a disaster. His save percentage is an almost unconscionable .855. It was actually James Reimer in goal when the Panthers beat the Ducks at home on Feb 3. That is the only time in the L5 games that Florida has allowed fewer than four goals. Prior to beating San Jose 6-5 in overtime Wednesday, the Panthers were just 2-8 SU this year after scoring 4+ goals their previous game. 8* Anaheim

8* Edmonton (9:05 ET): This is not a good spot for a Flyers team I don't care for much to begin with. Back when it was a "five-team race" in the Metropolitan, I was making the case that Philadelphia was the "odd team out" and overrated. That's since been confirmed by the fact they're just 8-13-4 their last 25 games after a random 10-game win streak in early December. Their YTD goal differential of -23 does not indicate positive results are forthcoming. That's actually the third worst goal differential in the entire Eastern Conference. Having fallen completely off the pace set by the top four in the division, I now believe we're set to see the Flyers not even make the postseason. In addition to the poor goal differential, the other (and more obvious) reason I don't like Philly here is that they just played last night (and lost) in Calgary. Things will be no easier tonight in Alberta against the province's better team. In fact, they'll likely get worse. 

Edmonton is enjoying its best season in years. Led by Conor McDavid, all the young talent has gelled and the result is a current third place standing in the Pacific Division. After totaling just five goals in five games (went 1-4), the Oilers busted loose for five in one game Tuesday as they blew out the sorry Coyotes here at home. That was the sixth straight game that the Oilers outshot their opponent and what I'm really impressed by is just how few shots the team is allowing per game. The number is down to an average of 24.4 over the L5 games, which certainly makes life easier for whomever is between the pipes. Tonight, that's likely to be Cam Talbot, who has a solid .920 save percentage in all games this season. Lucky for Talbot is that the Flyers have scored just four goals in the L5 games.

Philadelphia has had some of the worst goaltending in the league this year as their overall save percentage is below .900. It's tough to win w/ a percentage like that. Likely starting tonight will be Steve Mason (.891 on the road), who has started only two of the team's past eight games and last won all the way back on January 25th. Yes, the Flyers did outshoot Calgary last night, but they still came up short on the scoreboard (3-1) and they're unlikely to get as many chances tonight against Edmonton. The offense has been held to three goals or fewer in 13 consecutive contests. 8* Edmonton

8* San Jose (10:35 ET): The Pacific Division leading Sharks seemingly got back on track w/ a 4-1 win at New Jersey. That performance came as a bit of surprise to me, not because the Devils are any good (they're not!), but it was not a great situation from San Jose's perspective. It was an early start time out East following a tough 2-1 loss at Philadelphia the previous day. They'd actually dropped four in a row before winning in East Rutherford. Now they return home to face a Panthers team off a somewhat stunning offensive performance of their own Sunday, that being a 7-4 win at Nashville. But Florida's goal differential still gives me pause and they've allowed four or more in three of the past four games. Go w/ the home team here.

Taking a page out of the rival Kings playbook, San Jose has been a great puck possession team this year. They are allowing just 27.5 shots per game, the third fewest in the league. At home, the number dips to 25.9. As a result, their record at The Tank is 18-7-2. Martin Jones hasn't exactly been great of late, but is probably in line for a bounce back performance here. His save percentage at home this year is .921. The Sharks are #3 in the league in goals allowed. 

Florida is just 2-8 SU this season after scoring four or more goals their previous game. Having scored seven in Nashville, I'd say they are due for a massive decrease tonight. Note that they are in the bottom third of the league in goals per game on the road at just 2.41. They also give up a ton more shots per game than San Jose. Roberto Luongo hasn't played well between the pipes either of late (.880 save percentage L4 starts) and unlike Jones, I don't see a turnaround happening anytime soon. 8* San Jose