9* San Jose (8:05 ET):  So, with the Blues taking Game 1 (2-1), the home team is now 8-0 in the Sharks' last eight games. I'll call for that streak to end here, however, as you have to remember that San Jose posted the best road record in the league during the regular season (28-12-1) and then went on to win all three games in Los Angeles in Round 1.  They are more than capable of "stealing" a game here at the Scottrade Center as they were 2-0 here in the regular season. Not only that, but the Sharks have outshot the Blues in all four meetings this season, including a 32-23 edge in Game 1. As I've been harping on throughout the playoffs, the number of shots on goal a team has tends to be a reliable indicator of future results.

It's not like St. Louis has been overwhelming on home ice this postseason.  In fact, prior to winning Game 1, they were just 4-3 in home playoff games and all but one of them have been decided by one goal.  They were lucky that a potential game-tying goal for the Sharks at the end of the second period was waved off.  Though they were predictably physical in Game 1, that came at the expense of puck possession, which San Jose pretty much dominated. Another key was St. Louis killing off all three Sharks' power plays and while the Blues ranked second in the league during the regular season on the PK (85.1%), I would expect San Jose to be better tonight when they have the man advantage. Game 1 was just the fourth game of this postseason where the Sharks did not score a PP goal.

In the four games against San Jose this year, the Blues have scored only seven goals.  Martin Jones has been in goal for the Sharks all four games and is coming on strong of late w/ a .930 save percentage his L4 games.  The team is 25-14 on the road this season w/ him in net.  Meanwhile, Brian Elliott is surprisingly just 15-13 SU at home for the Blues and in addition to getting away w/ the disallowed goal at the end of the second period Sunday, he's now allowed seven goals on 79 shots here at home vs. San Jose this year (three games).  The Blues are surprisingly just 1-5 so far in the playoffs when leading the series and are being outshot overall this postseason  9* San Jose

5* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET):  Sure the juice is high, but shouldn't it be given the situation? I was on Tampa Bay in Game 1 and while they delivered (winning 3-1), it came with a price and that was losing star goaltender Ben Bishop to a leg injury that might keep him out for the rest of the season. Bishop was obviously a big reason why I took the Lightning in Game 1 and his .939 save percentage in the playoffs is going to be sorely missed.  Andrei Vasilevskiy filled in admirably in Game 1 and while Lightning fans will simply want to "point across the ice" to what's happened with Matt Murray and Pittsburgh, I think the drop off from Bishop to Vasilevskiy is more severe than what the Penguins had to deal with going from Marc-Andre Fleury to Murray. The Pens face a "must-win" here and on paper things couldn't set up any better for them.

It has been a very long time since Pittsburgh lost B2B games. One would have to go all the way back to mid-January and ironically, it was the Lightning that dealt them that second straight defeat. But so much has changed since that time, namely the Penguins going on a monster 36-13-2 run. They are 15-5 this season coming off a loss by two or more goals. Also, while they have yet to beat the Lightning this season in four tries, it needs to be pointed out that the Penguins have had the edge in shots on goal every time, Game 1 included as it was a 35-20 in that department. That was actually the third time that the Pens have had at least 15 more shots, but still lost to the Lightning. So, again, Bishop clearly is going to be missed.

Tampa Bay has now won five straight and allowed one goal or less in four of those victories. But everything changes w/ Bishop out of the lineup and I just can't see them taking both games here in Pittsburgh.  Speaking of goaltenders, Matt Murray has been the star of this postseason for the Penguins and now all of a sudden he's the one that should give his team the edge between the pipes.  Though 9-2 in the playoffs, Tampa Bay has actually been outshot overall, a sign of good fortune and that they've relied heavily on Bishop.  The high juice is absolutely warranted given the situation. 5* Pittsburgh

6* San Jose (9:05 ET): I had expected that the Sharks would have closed this series out by now. I admittedly lost on them in Game 6, which was their second OT loss in the last three games (lost Gm 4 in 3 OT's!), but I'll come right back with them here at home in the deciding Game 7.  Yes, Nashville has already won one Game 7 on the road this postseason (at Anaheim) and we saw the road team win last night's Game 7 (St. Louis, who I was on). But the road team has yet to win a game in this series and I think that trend "holds serve" when it matters most.

Throughout the year, I've always maintained that San Jose's very unusual home-road dichotomy was due to even out.  While it's nice that they were able to go a league-best 28-10-3 on the road during the regular season and then 3-0 in Los Angeles in Round 1, it was downright shocking that they were only 18-20-3 here at the Shark Tank coming into the playoffs. They only managed a split w/ the Kings in the last series, but as already mentioned, they are 3-0 here vs. the Predators. Why I felt that they were always due to start winning more on home ice is the simple fact that they've actually outscored opponents here over the course of the year and done so while holding a commanding edge in shots per game (32.5 to 25.5).  

Admittedly, San Jose was outshot badly (32 to 18!) in Game 6, and usually I would make the case that's not a positive sign. But they have outscored Nashville 20-15 in regulation over the course of the series and held the edge in shots in four of the six games.  The Predators are just one game over .500 for the season and are only 21-17 SU on the road.  The Sharks have won 17 of their last 21 games when the opponent comes in with a winning record (which hasn't always been the case in this series!). As I stated in yday's analysis for STL-DAL, the team that was favored in Game 6 tends to perform very well in Game 7's, now boasting a 27-19 record since '05 (Sharks were favored in Gm 6).  6* San Jose

9* St. Louis (9:05 ET):  Despite not having the home ice advantage, the Blues were favored to win this series and I personally bet them when they moved to +140 after dropping Game 1. They were in position to advance Monday, but shockingly lost Game 6 on home ice as they fell behind 3-0 after the first period.  This will be St. Louis' second Game 7 of these playoffs as they already beat the more battled-tested Blackhawks in Round 1. Though this one takes place on the road, I believe them to be the better club and I just don't trust the Stars' goaltending in this situation.

Brian Elliott was supposed to be the difference maker this year for the Blues. But he was pulled after the disastrous first period on Monday, which proved to be too big a hole for the team to climb out of.  However, he still owns a solid .926 save percentage in the playoffs and over the course of the entire year he's been even better in road games (.935) w/ St. Louis going 17-7.  Twice in this series, Elliott has held what was the league's highest scoring team during the regular season to just one goal.  Simply put, I trust him more than I do Kari Lehtonen, who has not always been the most reliable option between the pipes this season. 

Then there is the matter that the Blues dominated Game 6 in terms of shots on goal by a 37-14 margin.   It was one fluky good period that kept Dallas alive as otherwise I felt that St. Louis really controlled the game.  Remember that the road team has now on the the last three games of this series and four of the six games overall.  Road teams have actually posted a winning record in Game 7's since 2005 and also the team that was favored in Game 6 is 26-19 in Game 7's during that same time.  9* St. Louis

9* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET):  Last night we saw two teams, Dallas and Nashville, force a Game 7 and that's the fate that would await the Penguins were they to lose here. Fortunately for them, I'm calling for an end to this high-profile series vs. the Capitals as the scene shifts back to Pittsburgh where the Pens have lost only one time in five tries in these playoffs. While it's true that I was on Washington in both of their wins (and in one of their losses), I think it's pretty clear that Pittsburgh has established itself as the better team in this series. 

  Though they lost Game 5, by a score of 3-1, the Penguins actually dominated in terms of shots on goal with a 31-19 edge.  Game 3, which they wound up winning anyway, is the only game that the Pens have been significantly outshot in the series.  So many times throughout this postseason, we have seen a team lose a game despite having a big edge in shots and then come back to take the following game. Ironically, that did NOT happen for the Capitals in Game 4 (lost in overtime) and that will probably be what costs them this series.  While I absolutely respect what Washington has done this year, including a 29-17 road record, Pittsburgh has simply been the better team down the stretch w/ a 34-11-2 overall record dating back to January 21st. 

  Though Matt Murray played probably his worst game of the playoffs on Saturday, there is no denying the key role the goaltender has played in this postseason run for the Penguins.  He still boasts a .937 save percentage and has been better in the last four games than Braden Holtby, which is a surprise.  Also, keep in mind that Pittsburgh is winning this series despite relatively minimal contributions from both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to this point. One would think that at least one of their stars is "due" for a good game here. Getting back to the team's incredible second half to the season, the Penguins have not dropped B2B games since mid-January and are 14-5 this season following a loss by two goals or more.  9* Pittsburgh 

10* San Jose (9:05 ET):  In my analysis for Game 5, I said that I was surprised that the Sharks were not in position to close the series out (lost both Games 3 and 4 on the road). But I remained confident that they would regain control of the series and that's precisely what they did with commanding 5-1 win on home ice Saturday night.  Now, I'll call for them to close the series out here in Nashville as, after all, this was the league's best road team during the regular season (28-10-3) and they did win in Los Angeles three times in Round 1.

Now Nashville is a place where San Jose has struggled a bit the last few seasons. They've lost six of their last seven visits here, but that one win did come fairly recently (just last month). Also, Game 4 went to triple overtime, so that result easily could have gone either way, especially considering how the Sharks had the potential game-winner disallowed due to "goaltender interference."  They have outshot the Predators in four of the five games in this series and scored at least three times in regulation in every game but one (Game 3).  Game 5 was not close as the Sharks led 4-1 after two periods and really dominated "bell to bell."

I've said this before, but I think it's important to note that Nashville has only been a .500 team over the course of the season (now 47-47 overall). Over the course of their past 10 games, they have been held to two goals or fewer seven times.  Goaltender Pekka Rinne has been a bit of question mark this postseason as he could only stop 23 of 27 shots in the last game.  Again I'll mention that the Preds ranked outside the top 10 in both goals scored and allowed while San Jose was 4th and 10th in those respective categories. The Sharks also had the league's third best power play during the regular season and they have had the better special teams in this series, going 5 of 17 when on the man advantage compared to only 3 of 18 for Nashville.  I'm calling for the series to end rather emphatically!  10* San Jose

8* San Jose (10:05 ET):  I have to say that I anticipated the Sharks being in a position to put away the Predators here.  Up two games to one in the series, I took them in Game 4 only to see them ultimately come up short in a triple overtime heartbreaker. It’s really no consolation, but both games in Nashville saw San Jose finish w/ a slight edge in shots on goal.  That’s typically a reliable indicator of who is really controlling the series and considering that I thought this was the easiest series call (Sharks) of the four conference semifinals, I’m sticking w/ San Jose Sunday in Game 5 where they return to “The Tank.” 

San Jose’s home vs. road dichotomy was very strange during the regular season.  They actually finished with a losing record at home despite outscoring opponents here, not to mention outshooting them by a wide margin (32.6 to 25.5 YTD).  So the fact that they have been able to turn things around here in the postseason (3-1) really isn’t all that surprising to me.  Meanwhile, they finished with the league’s best road record despite facing a disparity in shots on goal.  So, after winning all three games in LA during the first round, they were probably “due” to drop a couple like they did in Nashville in Games 3 and 4. 

The Predators are a very average team.  Going into Game 4, their record for the entire year was just .500. I have my questions about goalie Pekka Rinne on the road (.903 save percentage).  He did come up big in Game 4 w/ 44 saves, but remember that the home team has won every game in this series and the Preds are five games below .500 on the road this year.  Something else to consider is that while the Sharks ranked in the top 10 in both goals scored and allowed during the regular season, the Preds were outside the top ten in both categories.  The Sharks are simply the better team here and back at home, I expect them to respond in kind.  8* San Jose

8* Washington (7:15 ET):  This is must-win territory for the Capitals, who have lost the last three games and now face elimination.  Interestingly, the road team has held the edge in shots on goal in three of the four games, which also means that only once has the team with the edge in shots actually won. (That was Pittsburgh in Gm 2).  I find it hard to believe that the Caps will go this “quietly into the night” as this was the President’s Trophy winner after all (led the league in points).  History may not be on their side, but talent is and I believe that they’ll stay alive for at least another game. 

Only one time all season has Washington lost three consecutive games. They have never lost four straight. So, in that regard, history is on their side.  I’ve been a little disappointed in this series w/ the play of goaltender Braden Holtby, who has only a .914 save percentage and has pretty clearly been outplayed by counterpart Matt Murray.  But Holtby still has a .945 save percentage in the playoffs and I expect him to come up big here.  At the same time, I’m not that sure that anyone should become a long-term believer in Murray. With Holtby in between the pipes, the Caps are 29-9 SU on home ice this year.

Special teams have been dominated by the respective penalty killing units in this series. Washington hasn’t allowed a single power play goal (36 for 37 overall in the playoffs) while Pittsburgh has allowed just one. That’s really no surprise considering both PK’s ranked in the top five in the league during the regular season. But if one power play is “due” to turn it around, it would be Washington’s, which ranked 5th in the regular season (Pittsburgh was only 16th).  It’s not like the Penguins have dominated this series by the way; all four games have been decided by exactly one goal.  I just can’t see this series coming to a close in the Nation’s Capital. 8* Washington

10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET):  I was on the Lightning as they came in and took Game 3, 5-4 in overtime.  For the third time in the series, they outshot the Islanders, though not as severe as they had in the first two games.  But still they put 41 shots on goal (compared to 39 allowed) and have now outshot the Isles 108-81 for the series. Going back to the first round, the Isles have been giving up some alarming shot totals, which is something I continue to harp on.  Tuesday marked the fourth time in nine playoff games that they allowed 41 or more.

Something else to keep in mind is that the Isles were hardly dominant in the first round series vs. Florida as three of their four wins came in overtime, two of them double OT affairs. They had only 42 shots on goal the first two games, so while Game 3 may have been a step in the right direction, I don't see Lightning goaltender Ben Bishop allowing four goals again like he did Tuesday night.  I still feel Bishop gives his team a huge edge between the pipes over the Isles w/ Thomas Greiss, who has allowed nine total goals in ths series.

Something else to consider is that TB is 15-9 this season after scoring four or more goals in their previous game.  Eight of the Lightning's goals in this series have come at even strength, a very positive sign after some of their struggles in Round 1 vs. Detroit.  As I said in my analysis for Game 3, the team has seen a number of players "step up," namely Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov and Jonathan Drouin.  The play of Victor Hedman has also been a key, particularly when it comes to keeping Islanders' captain John Tavares in check.  10* Tampa Bay

9* San Jose (9:05 ET): To me, when it came to projecting a series winner, this was the easiest call of the four Conference semifinals. Sure enough, the Sharks jumped out to a 2-0 series lead with a pair of wins at home. I was on them in Game 2, but then they did drop Game 3 (didn't play that one) 4-1 here in Nashville.  Still though, I'm confident in calling for a bounce back performance as San Jose was the best road team in the league during the regular season (incredible 28-10-3 record!) and remember they also won all three games in Los Angeles back in Round 1. Also, despite losing Game 3, the Sharks finished with a slight edge in shots on goal (27-25).  I like them to take Game 4.

Special teams were a real key for the Preds Tuesday night. They came into Game 3 just 2 for 31 on the power play in the playoffs, but doubled their number of goals in that situation with a 2 for 5 performance. They also killed off all four Sharks' power plays in Game 3 after killing off only 12 of 18 PP's previously.  If I'm a Nashville fan, I'd also be a bit concerned over the team's 9-15 record this year when coming off a multi-goal victory.  Remember that this is just a .500 team overall this season.  They'd dropped five of seven before taking Game 3.

San Jose is 29-13 in revenge situations this year.  They are also 15-7 SU off a loss by 2+ goals.  Game 4's have historically been unkind to Nashville as they are 1-6 SU all-time in this spot, including five straight losses here on home ice. Remember they lost Game 4 of their first round series, 4-1 to Anaheim, here at home. San Jose, meanwhile, has won three of its last four Game 4's including the one in the series w/ the Kings.  Note that Nashville is actually being outscored by one-half goal per game in the playoffs.  San Jose is +0.7 gpg.  9* San Jose

    

9* Dallas (9:35 ET): I will continue to harp on shot differential as a reliable predictor of future success. If I'm right (and I certainly believe that I am!), then St. Louis could be in some trouble moving forward.  On average, they're giving up 36.9 shots per game in the playoffs while averaging only 29.1 themselves. In this series, the Stars have outshot them in both games, pretty significantly.  The cumulative total is 76-57, so I have no problem taking the Western Conference's top seed at 'plus money' here in Game 3, even though the series has shifted to in St. Louis. The Blues did lose twice on home ice back in the first round.

I was on Dallas in Game 1 and they came through with a 2-1 victory. That spot was certainly advantageous as the Blues were coming off an emotional Game 7 win vs. Chicago.  Game 2 went to overtime as the Stars rallied back from an early two-goal hole by outshooting St. Louis 34-25. But, ultimately, it was not enough. Still though, I have my concerns with a Blues team that has now been outshot in 7 of its 9 playoff games.  They might have come into the series as the betting favorite, but in my opinion Dallas has looked like the better team through two games. While St. Louis has taken five of the seven head to head matchups this season, only one of those victories came in regulation, the first (which took place all the way back in December).

Something to keep an eye on here is the Dallas goaltending situation. Kari Lehtonen was pulled from Game 2 after giving up three goals and Antii Niemi looked good in relief, stopping 19 straight shots before giving up the game winner. Regardless of whom is in goal for the Stars tonight, this play does stand.  Brian Elliott has had a fantastic season between the pipes for the Blues, but he's facing the highest scoring team in the league here and if he keeps facing a high number of shots, then he's going to be in some trouble. Note that the Stars are 16-6 this season after allowing 4+ goals in the previous game. 9* Dallas

10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET):  At home, the Lightning could only manage a split and that has to be at least a little disappointing considering how badly they outshot the Islanders (67-42) in those first two games. In Game 1, goalie Ben Bishop had a rare "off-night," giving up four goals on 13 shots and was actually pulled early.  But I "bet on Bishop" and Tampa Bay in Game 2 and sure enough they came through with a 4-1 win that evened the series. Now the scene shifts to Brooklyn for the next two games.  While that would seem to be an edge for the Isles, I still point to that shot differential (from the first two games) as so many times in these playoffs that particular statistic has been a reliable predictor of future results.  I'm on Tampa Bay here.

Bishop has posted a .933 save percentage so far in the playoffs and to me he's the most important player in this series for the Lightning.  If he continues to see such a low number of shots, then the team should be in very good shape moving forward. Keep in mind that Bishop has allowed two goals or fewer in 9 of his last 10 playoff starts. The Lightning have also picked things up offensively in this series, scoring six times at even strength, after managing just one goal when it was 5 on 5 during the L3 games vs. Detroit. Though dealing with a number of key absences, Steven Stamkos chief among them, Tampa Bay has seen a number of other players "step up," namely Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov and Jonathan Drouin.  The play of Victor Hedman has also been a key, particularly when it comes to keeping Islanders' captain John Tavares in check.

Much will be made of the fact that the Lightning have lost nine straight times as the visitor against the Isles. But this is a team that does have a winning road record this season.  Plus, home ice won't matter if the Isles keep giving up such a ghastly number of shots. In the last four games alone, they've allowed 157 and there were three times in the Florida series that they allowed at least 42!  That's making life difficult on goalie Thomas Griess and if the trend continues that .949 save percentage he has over the L4 games will certainly not hold up.  10* Tampa Bay

9* Washington (8:05 ET):  This series is tied at 1-1 after the Penguins took Game 2 by a score of 2-1. Now things shift to Pittsburgh and the Pens have to be feeling confident after outshooting the Caps in both games (80-59).  But this is a tremendous value on Washington, the President's Trophy winner who had 120 points in the regular season, who also happens to be 12-3 this season when off a game where they were held to one goal or less.  I still feel that goalie Braden Holtby's importance is being underrated in this series as he offers the Caps a tremendous edge between the pipes over what Pittsburgh has (a rookie).  I look for Washington to come in and "steal" Game 3.

Matt Murray has performed admirably for his team thus far (1.74 GAA in five starts), but remember that the Pens goaltender did have a bad Game 1. Washington had only 10 shots on goal prior to the third period on Saturday, which certainly made life easy on the rookie. But I just can't imagine him getting away with that level of inactivity again tonight.  Meanwhile, Holtby has been under siege throughout the first two games as not only has he had to make 75 saves, but also there were an additional 38 Penguins shots that were blocked.   But he's been up for the challenge and now has a .957 save percentage in the postseason. I simply trust him more than I do Murray and that's a key edge in this series.

We know that each team will be down a key defender tonight due to the hit Washington's Brooks Orpik laid on Pittsburgh's Olli Matta in Game 2. That hit resulted in a suspension (3 games) for the former and an injury for the latter. I feel Matta's absence will be the bigger deal tonight. I also feel that we can always count on the Capitals' penalty killing unit, which is now a phenomenal 30 of 31 in the playoffs.  Remember that Pittsburgh's one loss in the first round did come on home ice. The Capitals posted the league's second best road record during the regular season (27-10-4) and it's simply not that often that you get the opportunity to take them in this price range. 9* Washington

8* San Jose (8:05 ET):  This is the one series among the four in the Conference Semifinals where I think we have a clear favorite. Note that I did not play Game 1 of Predators-Sharks, but I certainly wasn't surprised by the result, which was a 5-2 win for the home team who I will be backing tonight.  San Jose had a pretty clear edge coming into the series opener in that they had played only five games in Rd 1 while Nashville had to go the distance against Anaheim and win Game 7 on the road.  The fact that the Preds had just one day in between series certainly did them no favors either. With the Preds goaltending still a major question mark moving forward, like I said, I'm on the Sharks.

I found it very curious that San Jose finished the regular season with a losing record on home ice.  They of course dropped one here (Game 3) in the last round vs. Los Angeles as well. But despite being 20-24 overall here at "The Tank," they've actually outscored the opposition and done so while outshooting them on a per game average of 32.7 to 25.2.  That's a pretty substantial edge, so it seems as if the Sharks have simply been unlucky to this point on home ice. I look for that to change moving forward though.  It's not like Nashville is any kind of a dominant road team as they are 21-25 SU while being outscored by one-half goal per game.  They did win three times in Anaheim back in Round 1, but I'll write that off as an anomaly. 

Though two of the five goals San Jose scored in Game 1 came on an empty net, Pekka Rinne still is a bit of a problem. The Nashville goalie has struggled here in the postseason and his YTD save percentage on the road is just .906.  Another area where I see the Preds having problems is special teams. Their penalty kill is at a woeful 78.6 percent in the playoffs while San Jose's power play is 29.2 percent.  The Preds were just 1 for 26 themselves with the man advantage in the Anaheim series, so don't expect another PP goal here like you saw in Game 1.  Martin Jones has been great between the pipes for San Jose, allowing two goals or less in four of the last five games. Of course, it helps when your offense scores 11 times like the Sharks have the L2 games. 8* San Jose

8* Tampa Bay (3:05 ET): Having lost the series opener on home ice, Game 2 is virtually "must win" territory for the Lightning. I did not have TB in Game 1 (had the Under), yet was as shocked as anyone to see goalie Ben Bishop struggle so badly as he was chased after giving up four goals on just 13 shots. For the Islanders, I do not see them benefiting from "Lightning striking twice."  Bishop, if you recall, turned in a .950 save percentage in Rd 1 and his career playoff numbers were a 2.08 goals against average & .926 going into Thursday. Also, the Lightning "enjoyed" a 36-22 edge in shots in Game 1. So many times in these playoffs we've seen a team that lost (despite having a clear edge in shots) the previous game, bounce back its next time out. That will be the case here with Tampa Bay.

The Lightning came into this series owning a perfect 7-0 record when taking the ice with at least three days rest. But the extended time off between series certainly seemed to be of no benefit to them in Game 1 as they fell behind 3-1 after one period.  From that point on, they outshot the Isles 28-10 as scoring was even. Keep in mind that Bishop had not allowed more than two goals in his last eight playoff starts. While the power play continues to struggle (4 of 25 in the playoffs), at least TB was able to score twice at even strength in Gm 1, doubling their output in that department from the previous three games. There have been only two times in 2016 that the Lightning have dropped B2B home games.

Three of the Islanders' Round 1 victories came in overtime.  Thus you might be able to call Thursday their best playoff performance to date, but again note they were outshot badly and are giving up a ghastly 38.7 shots per game in the playoffs.  They've allowed at least 36 shots in five of the seven games including 40+ three times against the Panthers.  What's interesting is that while the Isles have taken three of four matchups from the Lightning this season, it has been Tampa Bay that has finished w/ the edge in shots three times. I expect Bishop to be better here and for the home team to salvage a split of the first two games. The Lightning cannot afford to head back to Brooklyn down 0-2 in the series. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Dallas (8:05 ET):  St. Louis actually comes in as the favorite to win this series against what was the Western Conference's top team during the regular season (in terms of points) despite obviously not having the home ice advantage.  I suppose that's fair, but for Game 1, it's set up a situation where there is a ton of value in taking the Stars.  Yes, the Blues did take four of the five regular season matchups and would seem to have a significant edge in goal.  But they are also coming off a very hard-fought series with the rival Blackhawks where they were outshot pretty significantly despite advancing.  Thus, the road team is "ripe for the picking" in Game 1.

All but one of the games vs. Chicago in Rd 1 were decided by exactly one goal for St. Louis, including all four wins. I realize that there were a couple of overtime games mixed in there, but still, giving up an average of 36.6 shots per game is a fairly ominous sign considering who they are matched up with now.  Dallas led the league in scoring during the regular season (3.2 goals per game) and was above that average in Round 1 against the Wild where they scored 21 times in six games.  The Blues goaltender, Brian Elliott, was outstanding in the regular season. But, he showed signs of "slippage" vs. Chicago, including a .903 save percentage the last four games.  I don't think that St. Louis can compete in any kind of high-scoring affair here.

Now, Dallas was 24th in goals allowed during the regular season. But their 56.1 Corsi-for percentage was the highest of any team in Round 1 while St. Louis was actually below 50 percent in that department. So, provided the Stars can control the puck here, they should be just fine. Note that while St. Louis did win four of the five regular season meetings, three of those weren't decided until extra time.  The Blues go from undervalued in Round 1 to overvalued for Game 1 of Round 2.  10* Dallas

9* Washington (8:05 ET):  What a series this shapes up to be. We have what has been the best team over the course of the entire season (Capitals) taking on what has been the best team down the stretch (Penguins). For Game 1, I'm taking the home team. Pittsburgh did take three of the five regular season meetings, including 2 of 3 here in DC. But the playoffs are an entirely different animal and what has to be taken into account here is the massive edge in goal the Caps should have with Braden Holtby (0.84 GAA in Rd 1) over the Pens, who are still relying on a rookie (Matt Murray), in place of the injured Marc-Andre Fleury. 

Special teams, particularly the respective power plays, are probably going to play a vital role in this series. Both power plays here were incredible in Round 1 as the two combined for 16 goals while the respective PK units allowed only three.  Looking back to the regular season, Washington ranked 5th when on the man advantage (21.9 percent) while Pittsburgh was just 16th, so the favorite certainly seems more likely to sustain its level of success there. The Caps also ranked third in penalty killing, by the way (Pens were 5th). 

It was pretty stunning to see Washington score only two goals over the final three games of the Philadelphia series, but take note of their 11-3 record this year when coming off a game where they scored one or zero goals.  The series clincher was a 1-0 win, on the road, so that right there should tell you what kind of goaltender they have in Holtby.  Henrik Lundqvist imploded against the Penguins in Rd 1 and while he's one of the all-time great competitors, I don't see the same fate striking down Holtby.  The Caps are well aware of their playoff history and aren't about to "give away" Game 1 of this series.  9* Washington

8* Anaheim (10:05 ET):  After the road team opened this series with four consecutive victories, home ice advantage has come back into play the last two games with the Ducks and Predators exchanging victories. Though there's no real historical evidence that home ice gives a team any kind of significant advantage in Game 7's (home teams are 22-22 L44 Game 7's in NHL), the fact is that Anaheim is the better team here and I see them advancing.  This is a team that finished the regular season ranked #1 in goals allowed, penalty killing and on the power play. It would be a real shocker if they were to be ousted in the first round.

Many are going to want to point to the Ducks' poor history in Game 7's (lost four straight) and HC Bruce Boudreau's own 1-5 record in this very situation. But, as a counterpoint, I offer to you St. Louis beating Chicago the other night, a result that definitely "flew in the face of history."  I still believe that Anaheim has the advantage in terms of goaltending w/ Frederik Andersen having turned in a strong 1.26 GAA in the series and he's generally outplayed Nashville's Pekka Rinne, whose save percentage the last four games is just .885.  Also, there's the penalty killing as the Ducks are 22 for 23 in that department in this series.

Nashville has NEVER been in a Game 7 before in franchise history, so it's not like they have any foundation of success to build on in this particular situation.  They are also just 8-15 this season coming off a multi-goal victory. The two-goal victory in Game 6 only came about as a result of an empty-netter, mind you  Since "stealing" Game 1 of the series in Anaheim, the Preds have averaged just 1.8 goals per game the last five and I'll point out that during the regular season, this club was five games below .500 on the road.  I'm simply going to side with what I believe is the much better side in this one. 8* Anaheim

8* Chicago (8:35 ET):  This could end up being our only Game 7 in the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. How appropriate then that it comes via what was expected to be the most competitive series of the bunch?  For my money, the Blackhawks and Blues have delivered the most entertaining series and for St. Louis the script has to see all too familiar and painful. I was on them early in the series and sure enough, they took three of the first four games, including both in Chicago. But a 3-1 series advantage has now gone away after a 4-3 double OT loss in Game 5 and a 6-3 loss in the Windy City in Game 6.  I was on the Blackhawks Saturday and will back them again here in Game 7.

The public perception here is that Chicago is the more "clutch" team. Normally, I'm one who likes to at least question or even "buck" public perception, but in this instance, the stats back up the sentiment.  Including a series two years ago where the 'Hawks came back from a 2-0 series deficit to oust the Blues in six games, the reigning and defending Stanley Cup Champions are now an incredible 33-7 in Games 5 through 7 of a playoff series under HC Joel Quenneville. There's been no evidence of any "home ice advantage" in past Game 7 scenarios as the last 43 have actually seen the road team go 22-21.

Chicago has outshot St. Louis in the series, pretty drastically in fact, by a count of 223-179.  It was a 36-28 edge in Game 6 where the Blackhawks stormed back from an early 3-1 hole to score the final five goals.  The Blues thought they finally had the goaltender that could beat Chicago in a seven-game series, but Brian Elliott has faltered badly the last two games, giving up 10 goals. Everything about this situation just screams "BLACKHAWKS!" as St. Louis has been eliminated in the first round each of the last three seasons. Chicago has also been the more physical team in this series w/ an advantage in hits similar to their edge in shots. That matters over the course of a seven-game series and a familiar scene will have the Blues once again exiting "stage right" on Monday. 8* Chicago

10* Anaheim (8:05 ET):  The road team has enjoyed tremendous success in this series (won first 4 games). However, the Ducks broke the streak on Saturday w/ a 5-2 victory at home in Game 5 to take a 3-2 series lead. Will Nashville now earn its first home win of the series? I don't think so.  The Predators have been outscored 12-3 over the course of the last three games as Anaheim goalie Frederik Andersen has taken control of the series with a .966 save percentage. I had the Ducks rated as the better team coming into the series and tonight they finish the Preds off.

Both of these teams rank in the top four in Fenwick and top seven in Corsi, so I'm not surprised that it's been such a competitive series.  But the bottom line is that the Ducks finished the regular season #1 in goals allowed, not to mention they have the best special teams in the sport (#1 power play, #1 penalty kill).  Scoring was a big problem at the start of the season, but they ended up finishing 17th in goals per game, which is impressive when you consider they were 30th at the halfway point.  They are off their highest scoring game of the series and have an 18-11 SU record after scoring 4+ goals in their previous game.

The fact that Anaheim has stormed back to take control of the series, despite being 2 for 19 on the power play, is not a good sign for Nashville. The Preds' own power play has done nothing in the series, going 1 for 22 including 0 for 11 in the two home games. (That was somewhat to be expected). The Nashville franchise has NEVER come back to win a series in which it trailed 3 games to 2 (0 for 8) and while I suppose "there's a first time for everything," the bottom line is the Preds are a fairly mediocre team that has lost one more game than they've won in 2015-16.  They are averaging just 1.8 goals per game in the series and netminder Pekka Rinne has a save percentage of just .889.  10* Anaheim

8* Dallas (3:05 ET): The Stars have blown two chances to close out Minnesota so far as what was once a 3-0 series lead has now turned into only a 3-2 series lead. Game 5 wasn’t decided until overtime, but while the Wild may have won, it was Dallas that held a rather significant 41-24 edge in shots. Time after time, in these playoffs, we’ve seen teams that lose with similar edges in shots come back and win the next time out. That’s what I anticipate here from the Western Conference’s #1 seed, who is simply too good to let this series continue on like this. Remember that going into Game 4, the Wild had lost had lost seven straight times and scored only seven goals in the process.  Their scoring output from Friday was highly irregular. 

As for Dallas, high scoring games were commonplace throughout the regular season. After all, this is the team that led the league in scoring (3.2 goals per game). So, asking them to repeat their Game 5 output of four goals on 41 shots is not out of the realm of possibility. Note that the team is 23-14 this season after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. Now, coming into these playoffs, there was some legit concern regarding the Stars propensity to give up their fair share of goals. They ranked just 23rd in the regular season in goals allowed and have now allowed five goals in both series losses. But good news comes in the form of a 14-6 record in games immediately following allowing 4+ goals.

Minnesota’s goaltending situation is hardly ideal right now. Devan Dubnyk has an .892 save percentage in the series and that’s after facing 30 or fewer shots in three of the games. It’s not like John Tortorella’s other option (Darcy Kuemper) is any better.  Meanwhile, if I were Dallas, I’d make a switch in goal back to Kari Lehtonen as Antii Niemi hasn’t been that effective the last two games.  Lehtonen did have a bad Game 3 (allowed five goals), but the first two games saw him stop 47 of 48 shots.  It’s pretty remarkable to see that the Wild have been able to stay in this series despite being w/o their two top forwards, Thomas Vanek and Zach Parise.  Though they are the home team this afternoon, take note that the Wild are only 22-21 here at the Xcel Center this season.  This is where their season comes to an end.  8* Dallas

8* Chicago (8:05 ET): The Blackhawks staved off elimination w/ a 4-3 Game 5 win in St. Louis that required double overtime. They now can even the series up and force a deciding game (back in StL) if they can win tonight on home ice.  Meanwhile, even though they are the underdog in this game, there's obviously going to be a ton of pressure on the Blues, especially given their past playoff failures. It was only two years ago that Chicago rallied back from a two game series deficit (in the first round) to oust their division rival and now it can be "deja vu all over again."  Ironically, after they put 88 shots on goal in a pair of LOSSES the previous two games, the 'Hawks were able to win Game 5 despite a 46-35 shot DISADVANTAGE. They still have a fairly significant edge in shots for the series though and I just can't see them losing three straight times on home ice. I'm on the Blackhawks here.

Chicago was pretty dominant here at the "Madhouse on Madison" during the regular season, winning 26 of 41 games. They outscored visiting teams by nearly a full goal per game, so it was certainly more than a little surprising to see them drop both Games 3 and 4 here.  But as stated above, they did enjoy a significant edge in shots both games (88-56) and note each contest was decided by just one goal.  Game 3 saw them give up a pair of third period goals, the result of which was the first time in 75 games that they entered the final 20 minutes w/ a lead at home and lost.  Game 4 also saw them blow a 2-1 lead. But the good news is that this is a team that's "been here before" and with the Game 5 victory, the Blackhawks are now 10-3 the L3 seasons when trailing in a playoff series.

As for St. Louis, they've "been here before" as well, only history is not as kind.  Therefore, "guaranteeing" victory tonight in Chicago was probably not a wise decision by Alex Pietrangelo.  After all, his team is just 2-4 when up in a playoff series the last three years. Keep in mind that Chicago has had the lead in each of the last four games, all of which have been decided by one goal (as was Game 1, a 1-0 Blues' overtime victory).  I expect the pressure to "get to" the Blues here and for this series to go to a seventh game. 8* Chicago

8* Pittsburgh (3:05 ET):  As if winning both games at Madison Square Garden didn't make it clear, the Penguins are the significantly better team in this series and I anticipate them closing the Rangers out on Saturday.  Remember that this (the Pens) was the hottest team in the league down the stretch and with the 3-1 series advantage, they've now won 17 of their last 20 games overall.  What's real scary for Rangers' fans is that Pittsburgh has been able to dominate even w/o the services of their #1 goaltender, Marc-Andre Fleury. The Pens have been remarkably consistent with their shot totals in the series and NY goalie Henrik Lundqvist simply has not been "good enough" w/ a .900 save percentage.  Additionally, the Rangers' one big Achilles' heel (penalty killing) has, pardon the pun, "killed" them in this series.

Game 4 was the most lopsided result yet in this series as Pittsburgh prevailed 5-0, thanks to scoring three times on the power play. The Pens now have tallied seven goals in the series when on the man advantage, which even by the Rangers poor PK standards is a lot. As I wrote about in my Gm 4 analysis, New York ranked 26th in the league in penalty killing during the regular season at 78.2 percent.  That unit is at only 63% in this series and three of the four games have seen Pittsburgh get at least five power play opportunities. Meanwhile, the Rangers are just 1 for 16 when on the man advantage in the series.

Something else to remember is that of the eight first round playoff series, this one features the biggest discrepancy between the two teams in terms of possession numbers.  Pittsburgh ranked 4th in Corsi and 5th in Fenwick during the regular season while the Rangers were 25th and 23rd respectively.  The Rangers' rankings are the lowest for any playoff team, so in many ways it's not a surprise to see the Penguins in such control of this series.  Furthermore, the way that rookie Matt Murray has stepped up between the pipes for the Pens has been a real key. He's stopped 47 of 48 shots in his two starts.  Pittsburgh is 4-2 this season when coming off a shutout victory.  8* Pittsburgh

6* Dallas (9:35 ET): Off a 3-2 win in Minnesota, the Stars now have a chance to close out the Wild at home tonight and I like their chances. While they were actually outshot in both games at Minnesota (just 39 shots total), the league's #1 offense still found a way to score six goals and you have to figure they'll be more active around the net tonight. At home, the Stars are averaging 32.6 shots per game, the result of which has been 3.3 goals per game. Minnesota has won only one of its last nine contests and tonight just seems like a likely end to their season, especially considering the only time they've been able to score more than two goals during this 1-8 stretch was the Game 3 victory.  The price is steep, but justified on the Stars.

Dallas has won eight in a row at home and was a Western Conference best 28-11-2 on home ice during the regular season.  That record is now 30-11-2 following the first two games of this series where they held the Wild to only one goal.  It appears as if the Game 4 starter, Antii Niemi, will be back between the pipes tonight for Dallas after making 28 saves Wednesday night.  Niemi now has a .940 save percentage his last four starts. Either he or Kari Lehtonen (.923 save percentage L4 starts) would be fine, truth be told, as Minnesota has totaled only 14 goals in its last nine games and remember five of those came in Game 3. So, that leaves them w/ only nine goals scored in the other eight contests. That simply won't get it done against the Stars.

Even more concerning for Minnesota is how Dallas got its power play going in Game 4, scoring on both opportunities. This was the league's fourth ranked power play during the regular season, but they went just 1 for 13 through the first three games of this series.  Of course, Minnesota is really weak when it comes to penalty killing (27th), so that's a major problem as is goalie Devan Dubnyk's .888 save percentage in the series.  The Wild have lost 25 of their last 33 visits to Dallas, including three of four this season and in none of those four games have they scored more than twice. I do believe that this series is over. 6* Dallas

8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): As I've already indicated, I've really had my finger on the "pulse" of this series. Even though they were ML underdogs for Game 4, I went with the Lightning as I've always felt that they were the vastly superior team in this series. They delivered a 3-2 win in the Motor City, scoring the game winner w/ just under three minutes to go.  The Red Wings are now on the brink (one game away from elimination) and tonight I believe we'll see Tampa Bay become the first team to move on to the second round. Again, Detroit posted the worst goal differential among playoff teams during the regular season and no matter who is in goal, it doesn't seem that they can match Ben Bishop of the Lightning.  Series over.

Going back to the end of the regular season, the Red Wings have now scored exactly two goals in six consecutive games.  Going back even further, it's been 11 straight games scoring three goals or fewer.  Bishop has had their number in this series w/ a .937 save percentage and he hasn't given up more than two goals in any of his last 10 starts vs. Detroit. One of the better goaltenders all season, Bishop was the driving force behind the Lightning ranking fifth in the league in goals allowed.  He clearly gives his team an advantage over Detroit between the pipes as both Petr Mrazek and Jimmy Howard have had their struggles over the last month.

Special teams have also been killing the Red Wings in this series.  Their power play has gone a miserable 1 for 21 and they allowed Tampa Bay to score all three of its goals when on the man advantage in Game 4.  That's not a good sign at all, especially considering the power play was the Lightning's albatross for most of the regular season. It doesn't seem as if Detroit has any answer for Tampa's top line and the fact that the Wings struggle to score (23rd in goals per game) really is their Achilles' heel.  Now, they're back on the road, where their record is just 19-24 for the season including losses in both Games 1 and 2 here in Tampa Bay.  There's simply no aspect of the game where the Red Wings are the better team in this series, which will come to an end tonight.  8* Tampa Bay

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET):  A 1-0 lead is by no means rock solid, but things appeared to be going just fine for the Penguins in Game 2.  They had taken Game 1 of this series and had the aforementioned lead midway through the second period.  Then, the worst case scenario happened and that was backup goaltender Jeff Zatkoff (only in because of injury to Marc-Andre Fleury) gave up three goals in less than a five-minute span and then another just 39 seconds into the third period. At the other end of the ice, Henrik Lundqvist was between the pipes for the Rangers, who did what they needed to do and that was split the two games in Pittsburgh. But I would still favor the Pens in this series and think they are undervalued for Game 3.

Injuries have been a major storyline in this series so far, not just in goal, but w/ star skaters as well. Evgeni Malkin returned for the Penguins in Game 2 and now the Rangers may be getting their captain, Ryan McDonagh, back. But let's focus back on the goaltending situation.  It could be Zatkoff going again, unless Fleury or Matt Murray is fully recovered from their respective head injuries. Aside from a bad stretch of about 10 minutes Saturday, Zatkoff has been just fine in this series.  He still has the more talented team in front of him as let's not forget that the Pens were arguably the league's hottest team down the stretch.  Among playoff teams, the Rangers actually rank last in both Corsi (25th) and Fenwick (23rd), so they're not a very good possession team and in fact were outshot in Game 2 (31-28).

Something else to keep an eye on is the fact that Pittsburgh has already scored three power play goals in the series.  During the regular season, they ranked just 16th in the league when having the man advantage (16.4 percent), so this is a real "added bonus" for them.  It's likely owed to the Rangers' awful penalty killing, which ranked just 26th (78.2%) during the regular season.  While Lundqvist is rightfully viewed as the best goaltender in this series, it should be noted that the Rangers were 15th in goals allowed during the regular season and the Penguins were sixth. I realize with a backup goaltender in there, it's a bit of a different story, but nevertheless I'm on the Pens in Game 3.  10* Pittsburgh

9* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET):  I've had a pretty good pulse on this series so far, winning both Games 2 and 3 and did so by backing each team one time. The home team continues to dominate this Atlantic Division rivalry, now having taken all seven matchups this season. But despite being shut out in Game 3 Sunday, the Lightning are still the far better team here, at least in my opinion.  Returning home, down 0-2 in the series, Detroit was desperate when I took them on Sunday.  Not wanting to fall down 3-1 and have to go back to Tampa Bay for Game 5, they still will be here, but I just can't get past the fact that the Red Wings posted the worst goal differential among playoff teams during the regular season. The decision to go back to Jimmy Howard in goal also seems to be curious.

For Game 3, a decision was made by Detroit HC Jeff Blashill to go w/ Petr Mrazek in goal. Mrazek only faced 16 shots, but he stopped them all and that's what counts. His counterpart Howard faced a combined 65 in the first two games, but allowed eight goals and that's what makes the decision to go back to him for Game 4 so curious.  Howard's save percentage over his last four starts is just .872, which is terrible. I suppose Blashill could end up going w/ Mrazek again, but he too has a save percentage below .900 his L4 starts.  You figure that whomever is in goal for the Red Wings will be tested more than what we saw in Game 3. The bottom line is that the Lightning have a big edge between the pipes in this series w/ Ben Bishop, who has a .930 save percentage on the road. 

Detroit has outshot Tampa Bay in all three games and the Lightning are dealing with injuries. But that's about the only things that the Red Wings have going for them as I'm not sure they will be able to again slow down Tampa's top line (15 points in first two games) or solve Bishop. The Red Wings penalty killing has kept them in the hunt thus far (13 of 14 in the series) as their power play has really struggled (1 for 17) including an 0-7 mark on Sunday.  They ranked just 23rd in goals scored during the regular season and have tallied exactly two in five straight games.  The Lightning are 14-7 this year off a loss by 2+ goals. 9* Tampa Bay

10* Dallas (8:35 ET):  The Stars seem to be in "full control" of this series and I see no reason why that will change even as the scene shifts to Minnesota for Game 3.  The Wild are not only down 0-2 to the Stars, but also dropped their final five regular season contests. In none of those seven games have they scored more than two goals. That's problematic when facing the highest scoring team in the league, obviously, and overall Dallas has now won eight of its last nine. (The only loss came to what was - at the time - a red hot Anaheim team, on the road).  Dallas has now won six of seven against Minnesota this year, outscoring them 21-12. I would not be surprised at all to see this series end up being a sweep.

During its current seven-game losing streak, the Wild have scored a grand total of seven goals, including only two in the last four games. That makes it a near impossibility to beat a team like the Stars that averages 3.2 per game. Dallas goaltender Kari Lehtonen has been sharp of late, not only stopping 47 of 48 shots in this series, but he's also posted a 1.41 goals against average his last five starts overall.  The Stars are 3-0 in Minnesota this year and have scored at least four goals in every game.  Note that the Wild's one win in Dallas came in a game where Lehtonen did not play.  In the four full games that Lehtonen has played against the Wild this year, he's stopped of 106 of 112 shots.

I should mention the controversial goal that ended up being the game winner for the Stars in Game 2. Obviously, that was a huge deal, but I don't think it necessarily means that the Wild could have - or would have - won Saturday.  They still need to find ways to score and right now that's simply not happening. Their leading scorer Zach Parise remains out indefinitely, so the task is that much harder.  Minnesota is just 8-13 this season after scoring one or zero goals in their previous game.  I look for the Stars to take an insurmountable 3-0 series lead tonight.  10* Dallas

8* Washington (7:05 ET):  Though all we've seen so far is the Capitals "take care of business" on home ice, one gets the sense that this series is "all over but the shouting" as what shaped up as the biggest mismatch of the first round on paper has lived up to that advanced billing. The Caps have outscored the Flyers 6-1 in the first two games and have done so despite not having the edge in the total number of shots on goal.  Obviously, Washington got one favorable goal in Game 2, one that somehow snuck past Steve Mason despite coming from center ice. But that still leaves a 5-1 edge in goals for the favorites thus far and Philly couldn't even score either time the Caps were down to three skaters on the ice because of penalties. The series simply shifting to Philadelphia is not enough for the Flyers here.

The Caps had the second most road wins in the league during the regular season (27), trailing only San Jose.  One would have to imagine that the Flyers will not enjoy a 42-23 edge in shots like they had in Game 2 and considering they not only lost, but lost 4-1, under those conditions is not a good sign. They had as many shots on goal in the first period Saturday as they had in all of Game 1 and still couldn't crack Braden Holtby, who tied a league record w/ 48 wins during the regular season while posting a save percentage higher than .920.  Holtby has stopped 60 of the 61 shots he's faced in this series and is clearly playing better than his counterpart Mason, who has given up six goals on just 54 shots. 

With Holtby in goal, the Capitals were 23-10 on the road during the regular season.  It really can't be understated just how superior they have been this year compared to the Flyers.  While Washington ranked second in the league in both goals scored and allowed, Philadelphia finished the regular season with a negative goal differential. They were one of only two playoff teams to have that distinction. Don't forget that the underdog is also playing without Sean Couturier for the remainder of the series.  The one win Philly had over Washington at home during the regular season came via shootout, a format that does not apply here. Mason is probably still shaken by allowing that fluke goal and when it comes to special teams, the Caps have a big edge there as well, especially when on the power play.  8* Washington

8* Anaheim (10:35 ET):  Though at times it can be flawed logic (just ask the Kings!), I simply cannot see the Ducks dropping both games on home ice to the Predators. I have to say that I was pretty stunned to see Nashville come in and take Game 1, especially having to come back from a one-goal deficit. The difference ended up being a Filip Forsberg goal halfway through the third period that held up as the game winner.  While this series is going to be by no means "easy" for Anaheim, there still is the fact that they finished the regular season #1 in goals allowed, #1 on the power play and #1 in penalty killing. They are too good of a team to drop two in a row on home ice. After all, they have posted the league's best record since Christmas. Look for this series to be evened up after tonight. 

The Preds got to play a relatively home-heavy schedule down the stretch as this will actually be only their fourth road game since 3.21. They'd dropped four in a row on the road prior to Game 1 and hadn't won here in Anaheim since 2014.  They last won B2B road games in late February and that stretch included games at Toronto and Montreal.  They have a losing road record for the season and it was a bit of a surprise to see goaltender Pekka Rinne play so well in Game 1, given that his save percentage over his last four starts still is below .900.  Meanwhile, we know goaltending is a real strength for Anaheim and Nashville only averages 2.5 gpg on the road.

Anaheim goaltenders have a collective save percentage of .929 here at home and that's even factoring in four bad starts by Anton Khudobin. John Gibson could stop only 30 of 33 shots in Game 1, but that's more than he typically faces.  This is a team that doesn't lose B2B games often, in fact, they've had just three losing streaks since January 1st.  I'm going to lean on what I've seen from this team over the last several months and call for them to even up the series. 8* Anaheim

10* Detroit (7:05 ET):  Down 0-2 in the series, this is pretty much "do or die" for the Red Wings here at home as the likelihood of them erasing a 3-0 series deficit against the Lightning seems pretty far-fetched. Fortunately, as I said, this game is on home ice.  Now I did back Tampa Bay in Game 2 and they came through w/ a 5-2 victory as their immensely talented top-line that I talked about, came through in a major way. But, interestingly enough, the Red Wings actually finished w/ the edge in shots (32-31) and that was also the case in Game 1 (36-34).  The series shifting to the Motor City is a pretty big deal as the Wings are 22-13-6 here (as opposed to 19-19-5 on the road) while the Lightning have dropped 14 of their past 20 visits. That includes both this season. 

The last four games these teams have played all took place in Tampa Bay in all have resulted in Lightning victories. So that makes the home team a perfect 6-0 in the season series.  It's been said that a series truly doesn't begin until the home team drops a game, so Detroit probably isn't in as bad of shape as some might think. They are 11-3-1 at Joe Louis Arena since the All-Star Break.  Players need to step up and a key difference here is that HC Jeff Blashill will be going with Petr Mrazek in goal, perhaps the option that he should have turned to at the outset of the series.  Mrazek has a better save percentage over the course of the season compared to Jimmy Howard (.921 to .905), who started both Games 1 and 2. 

Though the penalty killing unit has been solid for Detroit through two games (10 of 11), giving up 11 power plays is hardly ideal. At the same time, the power play needs to get going as it is just 1 for 10 in the series. The Red Wings' special teams were decidedly mediocre during the regular season, but one good thing for the next two games is the fact that Tampa Bay was dead last in the league in terms of the number of power play goals scored on the road (13) and converting on just 10.1 percent of opportunities, they were really bringing up the rear.  After playing their last four games all out on the road, Detroit should be really fired up here and Tampa Bay has a losing record in games after they scored four or more goals.   10* Detroit

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET):  I had the Blues in Game 1 and will gladly throw my support behind them tonight in Game 2 as they are again being drastically undervalued at home because of past playoff failures and their opponent's history of success. But much of that is now largely irrelevant thanks to St. Louis finally having found a goaltender it can count on, that being Brian Elliot, who turned in a strong performance on Wednesday w/ a 35-save shutout in a game that went to overtime. Things were scoreless at the end of regulation, but I'm expecting more here from the Blues, who had just 18 shots on goal for the game and still won. With Elliot likely to be strong again and the offense even stronger, I see no reason why I shouldn't back the Blues again here.

In my Game 1 analysis, I wrote that Elliott was the key to this series for St. Louis. He, of course, led the league in save percentage (.930) during the regular season and when at even strength, that number jumps to .939. His goals against average was 2.07 and in division contests that save percentage jumps even further to .952. Now 12-1-1 w/ a 1.60 GAA his L16 games (three shutouts in last eight starts), I expect him to be just as sharp tonight as he was in Game 1. Meanwhile, I don't think you can say the same for Chicago's Corey Crawford, who figures to be under siege far more than he was Wednesday. Crawford is still working his way back from an injury that kept him out for nearly a month and he wasn't sharp in the regular season finale. His save percentage over his L4 starts is now all the way down to a terrible .830. 

Winning Game 1 in the manner that they did was huge for the Blues' confidence. Had they lost a 1-0 game in OT, the same old questions would have arisen and the pressure to win tonight would have been immense. Instead, they can now come out and play "their game," which if you believe HC Ken Hitchcock, will involve more hitting.  I said it in the Game 1 analysis as well, but Chicago simply does not seem to be as strong this year and though top defenseman Duncan Keith returns tonight, that will not cure all that ails them.  The Blues are the better team this year and have a 7-3 record when coming off a shutout. 10* St. Louis

8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET):  The Lightning took Game 1 of this series, 3-2, and those expecting the Red Wings to bounce back and salvage a split are going to be severely disappointed. Detroit somewhat backed into their 25th consecutive playoff appearance, losing B2B road games to end the regular season. I know that injury concerns have somewhat tempered the enthusiasm surrounding Tampa Bay, but they are the better team here and will be just fine in this series as long as the top line (Johnson-Kucherov-Killorn) performs the way it did in Game 1 (seven points!) and Ben Bishop is between the pipes. The Wings have now lost seven of their last nine visits to Tampa Bay and after tonight you can make it 8 out of 10.

There were plenty of shots on goal from both sides in Gm 1 w/ the Red Wings actually holding a slight advantage, 36 to 34. But again, as long as Bishop is in goal, the Lightning should be just fine. He has now won four straight starts at home vs. Detroit thanks to a 1.25 goals against average. His save percentage against the most common opponents (division foes) is .935 this season.  Bishop gives his team a significant edge in goal over counterpart Jimmy Howard for Detroit, whose save percentage on the road this year is just a hair above .900 (.903). Another game w/ plenty of shots certainly seems to favor Tampa Bay, who is also 26-13-3 on home ice while Detroit is now 19-17-6 on the road.

The Red Wings had the worst YTD goal differential among playoff teams during the regular season (-13) and other than Philadelphia are probably the weakest team in the entire 16-team field.  Playing a fourth consecutive road game, they really do seem "up against it" tonight as they are just 6-6 SU coming off three straight road games this season and almost all of those games took place at home. Detroit simply doesn't score much (23rd in goals per game) and that's trouble when facing a team that is 5th in goals allowed and 7th in penalty killing. Also, the Wings often struggle to protect leads as they were top six in most third period goals allowed during the regular season and their .710 win percentage when leading after two was second lowest in the league. 8* Tampa Bay

9* San Jose (10:35 ET): These were two of the better road teams in the league during the regular season (San Jose was, in fact, the best), so it should come as no shock to find that the visitor won four of the five regular season matchups.  It was only the last one (in San Jose) where the home team was finally able to break through.  This is a really huge series for the Sharks as a franchise as it was just two years ago that they were up three games to none over the Kings in the first round and didn't end up advancing. I think the fact that Los Angeles got caught by Anaheim on the final day of the regular season and thus fell down into second place in the Pacific could come back to haunt them. The Sharks did finish the season w/ an ever so slightly better goal differential (+31 to +30). I'll call for the Game 1 "upset."

San Jose went an amazing 28-10-3 on the road during the regular season, including two wins here at the Staples Center.  Both wins saw them score five times despite going up against Jonathan Quick.  This was a team that ranked fourth in the league in scoring and when on the power play they have a big advantage as the Kings' penalty killing unit is ranked just 19th (SJ is #3 on the PP).  Also, a big difference between now and the last time these two met in the playoffs is that the Sharks tapped into the enemy and have former Kings goaltender Martin Jones between their pipes for this series. Jones turned in an excellent .925 save percentage on the road during the regular season w/ the team winning 22 of his 32 starts.

The Kings, as is always the case, were the best puck possession team during the regular season. But, San Jose ranked third in Fenwick themselves.  I really have to reiterate the poor finish LA had to the regular season as they blew a three-goal lead (at home!) to Winnipeg in the final game. One area of concern for the Kings is shooting percentage as only 8.5 percent of their shots find the back of the net.  Some of that is due to how many their take, but many of those shots aren't really quality looks. Another key factor to consider is that while San Jose led the league in turnovers, the Kings were last in takeaways.  9* San Jose

10* St. Louis (9:35 ET):  It appears as if "ghosts of playoffs past" have clouded bettors' view of the Blues coming into this best of seven series as they are the only Game 1 host not getting the majority of the action. Of course, when you consider that the franchise has won just ONE playoff series since 2002 and who they are matched up with here, perhaps the sentiment becomes easier to understand. It was only two years ago that the Blackhawks eliminated the Blues (in six games, after losing the first two) in a first round playoff series and the team from the Windy City has of course captured Lord Stanley's Cup three different times since 2010. But the defending champs, despite a phenomenal individual season from Patrick Kane, just doesn't have the same "feel" as previous editions (just 11-10-5 L26 games) while St. Louis finally has a goaltender it can lean on in Brian Elliott.  I like the Blues to take the series opener.

Elliott's importance cannot be understated. He finished the regular season as the league leader in save percentage (.930) and w/ a 2.07 goals against average. At even strength, that save percentage jumps to .939. Shaky goaltending is what's really hurt the Blues before in the playoffs, but Elliott's regular season demonstrates he can erase the ugly past. St. Louis did take three of five regular season matchups from Chicago, including two of the three w/ Elliott in goal. They also took the most recent two w/ Elliot stopping 24 of 25 shots six nights ago.  Overall, the Blues ranked 4th in goals allowed this year. Since March 1st, they have a Corsi percentage of 54.4 as they closed the regular season on a 13-4 run.

Chicago's defensive depth will be tested here as Duncan Keith will be suspended for Game 1. What's really shocking to report is that the Blackhawks scored less than half of their goals this season at even strength.  While the league's second ranked power play certainly is to be respected, the Blues happen to rank #2 in penalty killing.  'Hawks' goalie Corey Crawford missed a lot of time at the end of the regular season and in fact got only one start under his belt since returning from injury (team lost 5-4 at Columbus in the reg season finale). Crawford has lost his last four starts while posting a pretty woeful .840 save percentage. The Blackhawks actually posted a losing record against .500 or better teams this year while the Blues won 24 of 39.  10* St. Louis

8* Anaheim (7:35 ET):  Expect the money to be flowing in on the Ducks here and for good reason as they are the only team w/ something to play for, that being a Pacific Division Title.  Quite frankly, they are fortunate to be in this position as last night saw the Kings blow a three-goal lead in spectacular fashion and lose at home to Winnipeg in a shootout. That result, coupled w/ Anaheim beating Colorado 5-3 yday, leaves the Ducks one point back of the Kings for first place.  They do need to win this game as a tiebreak would go to Los Angeles, who has more regulation + OT wins this year.  Thankfully for the Ducks, Washington is likely to be a willing "dance partner" as they have home ice all wrapped up and nothing to play for here.

Back in December, I'm not sure anyone thought Anaheim would be in this position. They were last in the league in goals per game and the regression that everyone saw coming from what had to be considered a "lucky" campaign last year (had an extraordinary record in one-goal games) seemed to be taking hold.  But credit all other facets of the game as the Ducks are likely to end the regular season 1st in goals allowed, 1st on the power play and 1st in penalty killing!  Even though they finished last year w/ more points, I believe the Ducks are a better team entering this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs.  Thinking that this game might not matter, they called up several players from their AHL affiliate yday, but now given a golden opportunity, I expect most, if not all, of the top players to be on the ice Sunday night.

I can't say that for Washington however as the Caps have no incentive to win here whatsoever.  Braden Holtby, who has already tied the single season record for wins, is likely to sit out.  The Caps had actually dropped three in a row before yday's 5-1 win in St. Louis and I think that peformance will be good enough for HC Barry Trotz to elect to rest his key players, Alex Ovechkin among them.  It's been an incredible season thus far for Washington and there is simply no reason to risk anything here heading into the playoffs. 8* Anaheim

8* Dallas (8:05 ET): Little is left to be decided in the NHL standings, but one thing still up for grabs is the Central Division title as the Stars and Blues enter Saturday tied for first place w/ 107 points each.  St. Louis is at home against Washington tonight and considering the Caps could rest players, it is imperative that the Stars take care of their own business here. All they need is a win and they would finish first and have home ice advantage throughout the Western Conference Playoffs due to the fact they have more regulation + OT wins than the Blues do.  Dallas is in fine form right now as they have won 8 of 10 while outscoring opponents 35 to 20. Nashville has nothing to play for here as they will play whomever wins the Pacific in the first round.  So go with the home team that has something to play for.

We know Dallas' story at this point.  They are 1st in the league in goals scored and while a 20th ranking in goals allowed is a bit concerning, the fact is they are 5th in Corsi and 6th in Fenwick, so they're puck possession numbers are very good.  The team has not dropped a home game since March 15th and is 27-11-2 here for the season (most home wins among West Conf teams) while outscoring the opposition by almost a full goal per game (3.4 to 2.6) thanks to an average edge in shots of 33.0 to 27.2.  They have won six of the last seven times they've hosted Nashville and that includes a 5-2 win a little over a week ago.

The Preds are off B2B wins, but those were both at home and at the expense of teams that won't be in the playoffs, Colorado and Arizona.  Prior to that, they'd dropped four in a row, not only including the 5-2 loss to the Stars, but another 5-2 loss to the Penguins, their only other road game during that stretch.  Again, they have absolutely nothing to play for here as they are locked into the 1st Wild Card spot in the Western Conference.  I would not be the least bit surprised to see them rest players, possibly including goalie Pekka Rinne.  Note that they had to come from behind to defeat Arizona (trailed 2-0) the other night, so there's even less reason to expend any real energy here. 8* Dallas

8* New Jersey (7:05 ET): This will be the last we see of either of these two teams this season as the Devils failure to keep things going after the All-Star Break kept them out of the playoffs while the Leafs could finish with the fewest points in the entire league (tied w/ Edmonton w/ 69).  Being that they're on the road, I just can't see Toronto summoning up whatever is necessary to win here, especially because they just won a road game on Thursday (4-3 over the Flyers).  Back to back road wins is something that you simply should not expect from this club seeing as the last time they won consecutive games that were away from home was mid-November!  The Devils don't want to end the year on a five-game losing streak.

It should be pointed out that three of New Jersey's last four losses came against the top two teams in the Atlantic, Florida and Tampa Bay (twice).  I've said it before and I'll say it again, this team's main problem is that they simply do not get many shots on goal (average only 24.3 per game). That's the fewest in the league and as a result they are also last in goals per game.  But Toronto is just 28th in scoring and this becomes an advantageous matchup for Devils when you consider they are 8th in goals allowed and the Maple Leafs are 23rd.  New Jersey also has the much better special teams as they are also 8th on both the power play and penalty kill.  While 0-2 vs. Toronto this year (both games on the road & both went to shootouts), they are 3-0 the L3 times hosting the Leafs.

Like the NBA, the NHL uses a lottery to determine the top of the draft order. Still, it would behoove Toronto to lose tonight as that result would only increase their chances of drafting 1st.  Finishing with the fewest points gives you 20 percent odds of winning the lottery, about a 6.5% greater chance than if they were to finish with the second fewest.  While motivation could potentially be low behind the Maple Leafs bench, you can bet that New Jersey will want to send Patrik Elias out a winner. This could be the final game for the franchise's career leader in both goals and points. Goaltender Corey Schneider has a 1.64 goals against average his L7 starts vs. Toronto. 8* New Jersey

8* Chicago (7:05 ET):  Nothing is actually on the line here as the Blackhawks are locked into third place in the Central (will play either Dallas or St. Louis in the 1st Round of the playoffs) while the Blue Jackets are guaranteed a last place finish in the Metro.  But in handicapping this regular season finale, there is one significant advantage for Chicago and that's the fact Columbus played last night in what was the only game on the Friday schedule (won 4-1 at Buffalo). That made it B2B road wins for this team, but tonight's a big step up in class from those two opponents (Toronto & Buffalo) and considering Chicago is the better team anyway, the benefit of rest is a good enough reason for me to take the visitors.

The 'Hawks let the division get away in March, but they have won five of their last seven coming into tonight. Off a 2-1 loss to St. Louis in the home finale, Joel Quenneville's team certainly will want to bounce back before seeking to win Lord Stanley's Cup for the fourth time since 2010.  Over the last five games, they've been outshot, but still have found a way to average an impressive 3.8 goals per game.  Thursday's loss to the Blues came in overtime, so the team has not dropped a game in regulation since March 29th and overall the numbers do look good as they rank sixth in the league in goals per game and ninth in goals allowed. Don't discount the #3 ranked power play either.  When playing a team w/ a losing record, their record is 27-12.

Home ice advantage has proven completely meaningless for the Blue Jackets as they've won just one of their last 10 games here at Nationwide Arena against the Blackhawks.  The last time they posted three consecutive victories was all the way back in mid-November! When playing in the second game of a back to back, their record is 6-11. They'll have to deal with Corey Crawford here, making his return for Chicago after an 11-game absence. Crawford stopped 22 of 23 shots when he faced C-bus earlier this year, a 4-1 Blackhawks victory.  While Chicago has predictably dominated foes w/ losing records, the Blue Jackets have predictably struggled against foes w/ winning records, going just 12-26 in them. 8* Chicago

8* Carolina (7:05 ET):  The Hurricanes are one of the 10 teams that won't be making the Eastern Conference playoffs. So is Montreal.  In both instances, blame lies at the skates of the goaltenders, who have let their respective teams down. The collective save percentages for the 'Canes and Habs has hovered at just slightly above .900 all season long and that simply won't cut it as of the bottom nine teams in the league in that department, only Dallas will be headed to the playoffs. With the Canadiens, it's easy to understand the struggles as they lost Carey Price right around Thanksgiving and haven't been the same team since. But for Carolina, it's a bit harder to understand. This team really should be higher up in the standings. They did win Tuesday (in a shootout) over Boston and I think they win again here.

Since Price went down, Montreal is an awful 19-34-4 their last 57 games and that includes a 6-20-2 road record that is the worst in the league during that time. No team has given up more goals per game (3.14) than the Canadiens have since losing Price. I played against them Tuesday as for a second straight game they lost to Florida while giving up four goals.  This time, it came despite a 33-19 edge in shots. With Price out and backup Mike Condon struggling, the team turns to Charlie Lindgren, who will be making his first NHL start between the pipes tonight. Not only that, but the Habs are also going to be w/o their top skater PK Subban in this one. It's a real "skeleton crew" right now on the ice w/ a ton of new faces.

Carolina has had the issues in goal all season, but lately Cam Ward has been playing well.  He made 35 saves against the Bruins two nights ago and has a .947 save percentage his L3 starts (1.58 goals against average).  In two games vs. Montreal this year, he's stopped 69 of 72 shots.  The Hurricanes have really good puck possession numbers as they rank 4th in Corsi and 7th in Fenwick.  They typically outshoot their opponents, but it just seems that the puck has been cruel to them all season (opposing goaltenders have a .919 save percentage against them). But on a 13-6-4 run here on home ice, I see them delivering tonight. 8* Carolina

10* Toronto (7:05 ET):   I'm going back to the mentality of taking the team w/ home ice advantage when it's a battle of also-rans as tonight marks the Maple Leafs' final game at the Air Canada Centre this season.  The club has dropped five of six, but they've at least been competitive in the last two, losing to both Detroit and Florida (at home) by only one goal. This will be the weakest opponent that the Leafs have gotten to host since March 21st when they beat Calgary 5-2 (also beat Buffalo 4-1 here the game before that). Columbus comes calling here and has also dropped five of its last six. Really, when you look at it, Toronto is a pretty solid value on the money line tonight.

Right now, the Leafs are tied w/ Edmonton for the fewest points in the entire NHL (67).  But they are also tied for Columbus in terms of goal differential at -41, so again this matchup appears to be mispriced.  The Blue Jackets, who opened this season with eight straight losses and never really recovered, only have 70 points.  On the road, they are 14-25  and while the Leafs' home record is 14-26, note nine of those losses have come after regulation. That's easily the most OT+shootout losses at home of any team in the league.  While the road team is 2 for 2 in the season series, I look for that trend to change here.

Toronto has lost three in a row here at home.  They have not dropped four straight home games since March of 2014.  They did have an edge in shots (34-26) vs. Detroit Saturday night, but Florida proved to be too tough on Monday, jumping out to a three-goal lead. Still, I was impressed w/ the way in which the Leafs fought back (scored three times in the third period) and think that might have a "carryover" type effect here. As for Columbus, they've been giving up a lot of shots lately (34.3 per game L5) and that's an area in which Toronto has actually improved this season.  In fact, the Leafs are shockingly second in the league(!) in Corsi and seventh in Fenwick, which is a far cry from the Blue Jackets, who rank 24th in both categories.  Root, root for the home team. 10* Toronto

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  This is a situation where both teams have something to play for, yet the Wild clearly have more on the line as they are trying to lock down the final playoff spot out West. Despite three straight losses, a win here accomplishes that feat and they happen to be at home where they are 21-14-4 this season.  Of course, San Jose certainly has shown it doesn't mind being the road team as they are a league best 27-10-3 away from home, but this unusual home vs. road dichotomy of theirs has to reverse itself, sooner or later right. Yes, the Sharks have something to play for too as they are going for home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs, but that's looking less and less likely.  I like the Wild here.

San Jose is off a road win, 3-2 in Nashville. They are probably the only team in the league happy to leave home, where they've lost four of five (including one to Vancouver on Thursday) and are just 17-19-3 for the season.  But what's unusual about this home vs. road split is that the stats don't necessarily indicate that the team plays any better on the road. In fact, if anything, they play worse! They are actually outshot - on a per game basis - on the road, which is not the case at home.  The key has been that for whatever reason the puck seems to find the back of the net more for them on the road.  Moving forward and this could be potentially dangerous if they don't have the home ice advantage for their first round series, I see the Sharks struggling to maintain their outstanding road record.

The Wild come in off a really embarrassing setback - 5-1 at Winnipeg - and that was after losing to Ottawa and Detroit by identical 3-2 scores. The team had been rolling before that w/ six straight victories, so I view this as just "giving a little back" and not a sign of any real problems.  They should be the more motivated team here tonight.  10* Minnesota

8* Florida (7:35 ET):  Unlike my Over play in this package, here we have one team definitely playing for something and that's Florida, currently in first place in the Atlantic, four points clear of Tampa Bay thanks to a three-game win streak. With only three games to play, the Panthers do have a chance to clinch the division tonight, that is if they win and the Lightning lose (at the Rangers).  Yes, it's the second night of a back to back, on the road, but Montreal has little (if nothing) to play for here and just got beat down in Miami, 4-3, on Saturday. The Habs never really recovered from the Carey Price injury this season and I don't see any reason whey they'd be likely to "get off the mat" tonight seeing as this isn't even the home finale. Also, they have lost all three previous matchups with the Panthers this season.

Nobody had Florida winning the Atlantic at the start of the year.  I question their viability in the playoffs a bit as they are only 19th in Corsi & 20th in Fenwick and are likely to be matched up against one of the two New York teams (Rangers or Islanders). But for our purposes tonight, they should be just fine against a team they just beat three nights ago. Now, critics will point to the fact that they trailed 3-0 in that game before mounting a furious comeback, but I look at it as if Montreal couldn't beat Florida when spotted a three-goal lead (unlikely to happen again here), how can they beat them? The other two meetings this season were both multi-goal wins by the Panthers and the Habs scored just two goals total. 

Seeing as Florida had no problems last night w/ Toronto, I don't think that being in a back to back matters all that much. They were up 3-0 at the end of two periods yday and at one point enjoyed a 14-1 edge in shots.  No Panthers team has ever won more games than this one and they rank in the top eight in both goals scored and allowed.  They've already won here in the Bell Centre once this season when unrested, that was 4-1 back on March 15th and was no fluke as Florida finished w/ a 36-28 edge in shots. As started earlier, the Habs simply never recovered from the injury to Price as they are 19-33-4 their L56 games overall.  8* Florida

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): After allowing just one goal over a five-game stretch, the Blues lost in stunning fashion Friday night, 6-5 at home to the Bruins.  That result, coupled with a Dallas win yday, leaves them four points back (of first place) in the Central with just four games to play (Stars have only three games left).  Getting the deficit down to two would be huge and fortunately here, St. Louis is facing one of the teams it recently shut down, Colorado, whom they beat 3-1 earlier in the week.  Considering the kind of goaltending this team has gotten recently, I'm willing to write the last game off as an aberration.

Brian Elliott, who had been ridiculous recently for the Blues, simply had an off night vs. Boston.  Jake Allen, who came on in relief Friday, will get the start here.  Allen has struggled in the past vs. Colorado, losing twice to them this season, but I feel he is primed for a strong showing here.  The Avalanche have dropped four of five and have scored two goals or fewer in all four losses.  St. Louis allowed just 21 shots when these teams met last Tuesday and overall, the Avs have been outshot badly these last five games, by 11.6 per game in fact!  That's a massive discrepancy and considering they allow 32.3 shots per game for the season (second most), they figure to be at another disadvantage here.  

Prior to Friday's loss, the Blues had gone 10-2 in March and they had a big edge in shots during a five-game win streak.  With all the focus being on the goaltending, it should be pointed out that the offense has scored four or more goals in seven of its last 10 games.  Quite impressive.  The Avs, meanwhile, are trending in an opposite direction and while still alive for the final playoff spot in the West, they've been outscored by 15 goals this season.  They were outshot 47-19 by Washington Friday night.  8* St. Louis

8* Edmonton (10:05 ET):  The Battle of Alberta is renewed for one final time this season and nothing except pride is really on the line tonight.  Then again, neither team probably wants to finish in last place, which is where Edmonton currently is.  But the Oilers can possibly climb out of the basement if they were to win here, a result that would bring them to just one point back of the rival Flames. As my regulars will attest to, I've had a great deal of success down the "home stretch" of this NHL season by simply backing the home side in a matchup of two non-contenders.  That's what I'll do here.

Typically, Calgary has been the team that can claim provincial supremacy.  They have taken 10 of the 14 matchups over the last three seasons, including six of seven played here in Edmonton.  But it was the Oilers taking the last one, here at home, by a score of 2-1.  That game was decided in a shootout, so it's actually been eight straight visits where the Flames have not lost in regulation here. This will of course be the final visit, not just this season, but ever as Rexall Place (Oilers home since 1974!) will be no more starting next season.  I anticipate that the meaning of this particular matchup will not be lost on the Edmonton players, particularly the ones that have been around the last few seasons.  In what looks like a relatively meaningless game on paper, it won't be so meaningless to some of the Oilers players and certainly to the fans.

  Both teams are off B2B losses, losing to the same two teams (Anaheim and Los Angeles). While both Calgary losses came out on the road, Edmonton lost here at home to the Ducks on Monday. But they've been off ever since, allowing them to prepare for this next week when they'll be closing up shop at Rexall Place. They are even off for the next three days following this game!  I expect this to be two points that the Oilers REALLY want and remember, the Flames are dead last in the league in number of goals allowed per game, including 4.6 in their last five.  8* Edmonton

8* Los Angeles (4:05 ET): This is a battle of first place teams in the Western Conference that both have to worry about being caught in their respective divisions. Over in the Central, Dallas still has a two-point lead over St. Louis (who lost Friday) and is pacing the Conference w/ 103 points. Meanwhile, in the Pacific, LA has just a one-point lead over Anaheim (who also lost last night). So neither team can afford to "give this one away," but I'll be siding with the home team as they are coming off a shutout in their last game (3-0 over Calgary) and have won six of their last seven home games. Plus, I feel that the Kings' "brand" of hockey is more sustainable this time of year than that of the all offense, no defense Stars.

Coming into today, the Kings are #1 in the league in both Corsi and Fenwick, advanced stats that measure how much a team controls the puck compared to its opponent.  Year in and year out, they rate very highly in this metric.  Now, Dallas ranks seventh and sixth respectively in Corsi and Fenwick, but what has me concerned not just here, but about the team's overall viability in the playoffs, is that they are 20th in goals allowed.  Yes, they do lead the league in goals scored. But this is the time of year when it better to be leaning on your goaltender, not your offense. The Stars have even scored short-handed three times over the past 12 games (more than the # of power play goals given up during that same time). Short-handed goals tend to be fluky and thus are not something that can be really counted on.

Speaking of goaltending, the Kings have one of the best in the league between the pipes. Of course, I'm speaking of Jonathan Quick, who is 9-1-1 his last 11 starts at home w/ a 1.89 goals against average. He seems to have Dallas' number, going 17-7-2 w/ a 2.42 GAA all-time against them, including a 27-save victory back in January. The Kings have taken both matchups w/ the Stars this season, including one where Quick didn't even start last month, where they chased Kari Lehtonen after scoring four times on just 11 shots.  The Stars might be on a three-game win streak, but they are just 5-8 SU off three or more consecutive victories this season. The Kings are 20-5 SU coming off a division game this year. 8* Los Angeles

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): Though they now have 101 points (third most in the league) and are on a five-game win streak, I feel that I was "in the right" to question the Blues' "chops" previously as a relatively weak YTD goal differential called into question just how good this team really is. Of course, there is also the matter of all those previous Blues' teams posting outstanding regular seasons, only to flame out in the playoffs. But as touched on at the outset of the analysis here, there's no denying just how good this club has been lately.  Four consecutive shutouts (yes, that's right!) were followed by Tuesday's 3-1 win over Colorado. Save for B2B stunning losses to Calgary & Edmonton, St. Louis didn't lose in March (10-2 overall)! Go with them here.

As for Boston, well, things have been trending in the exact opposite direction. They come into tonight's contest having dropped six of seven and given the dearth of scoring we've seen recently, this matchup w/ the insanely hot Brian Elliott doesn't seem to bode particularly well, does it?  During the 1-6 SU slide, the Bruins have scored only 10 goals and three of them came in the lone win, last Saturday vs. the Maple Leafs.  Tuesday saw them fall on the road to New Jersey despite a massive 40-15 edge in shots on goal.  That, right there, illustrates the offensive struggles going on here. Opposing goaltenders have posted a a .955 save percentage against them the last four games.

Of course, that save percentage is "nothing" compared to what we've seen from the Blues' Elliott of late. He has an absurd .989 save percentage his L4 starts (stopped 91 of 92 shots) and is now up to .935 for the year.  Let's say that Elliott doesn't get the nod here.  Well, then it would be Jake Allen, who also happened to post a shutout in his last start and has a .925 save percentage at home this season.  So, either way, St. Louis should be just fine when it comes to between the pipes this evening.  They are also 18-6 SU the L24 matchups with Boston, including a 2-0 shutout (on the road) back in December. During its win streak, the Blues are outshooting opponents by roughly 8.5 shots per game, which is what you want to see.  8* St. Louis

5* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  One team here is eliminated from playoff contention (Ottawa) and the other most certainly is not (Minnesota), thus we have a somewhat inflated money line, but regardless the Wild are a strong play here.  They were a 10* for me Tuesday when they downed a much better opponent (Chicago) here at home by a score of 4-1, which was their sixth win in a row, by the way.  Ottawa, who got me last night (beat Winnipeg 2-1), is obviously in the second game of a back to back and the likelihood of them winning on the road two nights in a row seem quite slim to me. Especially considering they were officially eliminated from playoff contention yday (Philly won).

A remarkable thing happened last night and that was the Senators allowed only 21 shots on goal. This team, as I went through in yday's analysis, is dead last in the league in number of shots allowed (32.8 per game) and that number balloons to 34.8 on the road. So, what I'm saying is that Winnipeg ought to feel ashamed of itself for last night's performance.   However, as far as the Sens are concerned, trouble could be lurking between the pipes tonight as after electing to go w/ Andrew Hammond last night, they probably must turn to the struggling Craig Anderson here. Anderson has an .899 save percentage his last four starts and is a big reason why this team is 28th in the league in goals allowed.  The Sens has just 19 shots on goal of their own last night and remember that their special teams are awful as well (28th on the power play, 29th in penalty killing).

Meanwhile, there are no such issues with the Wild's special teams as they have converted at a 24.1 percent clip w/ the man advantage under interim HC John Torchetti and 27 for their last 28 on the PK.  Since Torchetti took over behind the bench, the team has gone 15-6-1 and has now outscored its last three opponents by a margin of 14-3.  They are now five points ahead of Colorado for the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference and with just five games to play a win here would almost guarantee that they're going to be in the playoffs.  I just can't see the Wild losing this game. 5* Minnesota

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET):  Both the Penguins and Predators will be playoff teams, but position is what each is fighting for at this juncture.  Pittsburgh is third in the Metro, but just three points clear of the fourth place Islanders and more importantly just one point behind the Rangers for second. They have been as hot as any team in the league recently w/ wins in nine of their past ten games.  While the last two both came in extra time (OT or a shootout), six of their first seven came in regulation and five were by a margin of two goals or more. As for Nashville, they are in fourth in the Central and trying to catch Chicago for third. But off B2B losses, their recent form has been nowhere near as good and it's tough for me to see them winning tonight on the road.

These teams only meet twice a year and that's just fine from the Predators' perspective as they have not had much luck, dropping six of seven to the Pens.  Goaltending numbers tell the story here as Pittsburgh's Marc-Andre Fleury has a .948 save percentage vs. Nashville during that time and has allowed 1 or 0 goals five times. Meanwhile, the Preds' Pekka Rinne's save percentage is just .870 his last five appearances vs. Pittsburgh, including allowing four goals on only 25 shots in a 4-1 loss earlier this year.  Facing an offense that has scored four or more goals in five of its last seven games isn't likely to change Rinne's fate here.  Incredibly, the Penguins have averaged more than four goals per game during this 9-1 run of theirs, averaging an incredible 37.2 shots per game the last five. Here at home, where they are 24-11-4 for the season, they average 35.8 shots per game. So, as you can see, Rinne is "up against it" here.

Nashville's last result, a 5-2 loss at Dallas Tuesday, is a litte misleading in the sense that the Stars twice scored on an empty net in the game's final two minutes.  But, it was the team's game prior to that, a 4-3 home loss to Colorado, that was more damning as the Preds quickly fell behind 3-0.  What really hurt Tuesday was defenseman Ryan Ellis going down due to a puck hitting him in the head. His absence here would only make things more difficult for a team that has a losing record on the road. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Winnipeg (7:35 ET):  Over the last couple weeks, any time I find a matchup between two non-playoff teams that I like, my default is to go with the home side. I'm not deviating from that game plan here as two of the league's seven Canadian franchises that won't be competing for the Stanley Cup face off Wednesday in Manitoba.  The Jets have lost two in a row, both by identical 3-2 margins, to Philadelphia and Buffalo. Both games were on the road. However, Ottawa has done them "one better" (or is it "one worse") as the Sens have lost three straight to an admittedly tough slate of opponents (Caps, Isles, Ducks). I just can't see the road team "getting off the mat" in this one, so look for Winnipeg to get the two points.

Anytime I play against the Senators I must reference how they lead the league in shots allowed.  That number is now 32.9 per game and on the road it's predictably worse (34.6), so it shouldn't come as any shock to see them also allowing 3.5 goals/game away from home, nor sport a 14-20-3 record in such affairs.  This issue of too many shots allowed reared its ugly head once again on Saturday when they gave up 39 (game did go to OT) in a 4-3 loss to Anaheim.  While the team's last two wins may have come in shutout fashion, the fact is they are 28th in the league in goals allowed (direct correlation to # of shots allowed).  Special teams have done this club no favors either as they rank 28th on the power play and 29th in penalty killing.

Winnipeg should probably be happy that they earned a point on Monday as they trailed the Flyers 2-0 before coming back to force overtime.  Ottawa has had their number in recent years, including a 3-2 win back in November, but I feel that carries little relevancy now w/ both teams essentially "done for the year."  With a pretty brutal slate of games looming (Blackhawks, Wild, Ducks, Sharks, Kings), this is really the Jets' best shot at a win between now and April 9th.  They have won their last two home games - by a combined 6-1 margin over the Canucks & Kings - and goaltender Ondrej Pavalec has looked sharp of late w/ a .938 save percentage his L4 starts.  10* Winnipeg

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  This is a big matchup in the Central Division.  Chicago, despite B2B wins, finds itself four points back of both Dallas and St. Louis for the top two spots, which guarantee you home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs.  Minnesota currently occupies the second Wild Card spot (5th in the Central), but is just three points clear of Colorado, who they just beat over the weekend. So the loser here will definitely be sweating a little more after this one and I think that will be the Blackhawks, who are playing their third road game in four days and are a surprising 0-4 this season vs. the Wild. Also, the defending Stanley Cup Champs have been in poorer form of late, losing six of nine, while Minnesota has won five straight.

It was a huge win Saturday for Minnesota as they went to Colorado and shut out the Avs, 4-0.  They are now 14-6-1 since the coaching change.  Looking at the Wild's YTD goal differential (+17), it is quite comparable to all of the other likely Western Conference playoff entrants.  So I wouldn't be surprised at all if they hold off the Avs and get into the postseason.  One team that definitely doesn't want to see the Wild come playoff time is Chicago, who hasn't beaten them in six straight tries in the regular season (did sweep a playoff series LY).  Three of the games this year have been decided by one goal, but one here in Minnesota was a 6-1 final. Goalie Devan Dubnyk has really had the 'Hawks number w/ a 1.96 goals against average in the four games this season.

Give a big special teams edge here to the Wild as their penalty kill is 24 for its last 25 while Chicago's power play is 0 for its last 23.  Chicago has also been outshot over the course of the season, which isn't a great sign. Meanwhile, Minnesota has been dominating during this five-game win streak, outscoring foes by 2.2 goals per game.  The edge in goal here also goes to Minnesota as Chicago is still w/o Corey Crawford.  Scott Darling is an adequate replacement, but catch match Dubnyk. Incredibly, the Blackhawks haven't beaten a likely Western Conference playoff opponent since all the way back on Feb 6!  10* Minnesota

8* Arizona (10:05 ET):  Somebody break up the 'Yotes! A team w/ little to play for at this point (except pride) has suddenly won three in a row. Technically, they are still alive in the hunt for the Wild Card, but being 10 points back of surging Minnesota (w/ just seven games to play) makes it highly unlikely that this team will be in the playoffs. However, that doesn't mean they still can't finish strong and here they get a visit from a team worse off in the standings, that being Calgary, losers of three straight and just one of the league's seven Canadian franchises that won't be in the playoffs either. Recently, I've just gone with the home team when it's two non-playoff teams facing off and I'll keep w/ that philosophy here.

The entirety of Arizona's win streak has come here at home and it started w/ a 4-2 win over lowly Edmonton last Tuesday (I won on Over 5.0). From there, they've pulled minor upsets of both Dallas and Philadelphia.  Overall, the club has won six of its last eight games and the driving force behind that has been the return of Mike Smith between the pipes. Smith has allowed just six goals total in five games since he's been back, never allowing more than two in any game. His save percentage is above .950 during this time and on Saturday he was less than a minute away from shutting out the Flyers, stopping 34 of 35 shots overall.  The good news here is that Calgary has lost 21 straight times when scoring two goals or fewer.

The Flames, as most expected, have regressed badly from last year when they actually made the playoffs.  The driving force behind this is they've given up the most goals in the league. They also have dreadful special teams w/ the power play ranking 27th and the penalty kill 30th (ie last).  The club has dropped three straight coming into tonight (outscored 15-5) and is a woeful 11-23-3 on the road this season. In stark contrast to last season when they swept the regular season series from the Coyotes, this year has seen Arizona win all four meetings with the Flames totaling just four goals. The home team is severely underpriced in this one. 8* Arizona

6* Detroit (7:35 ET):  Talk about one the Red Wings simply "must have."  They enter the day tied w/ Philadelphia for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference and draw lowly Buffalo, at home, here.  Twice in the last three games, the Wings have been outright humiliated, losing by margins of 6-2 and 7-2 to Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh respectively. But those are two of the hottest teams in the East right now and the Sabres sit at the opposite end, eliminated from playoff contention w/ only 72 points, even though they are off surprising B2B wins here. Look for this win streak to come to an end however, as they are not only 5-27 their last 32 games overall vs. Detroit, but just 2-14 here in the Motor City. 

Buffalo has had just one three-game win streak all season and it came back in early November. So the odds clearly are not in their favor in this one as they've dropped five straight when off B2B wins. Overall, they're just 1-7 SU when on a win streak this season and in six of those spots they've been held to one goal or fewer.  Though they should be given credit for the pair of 3-2 victories last week vs. Carolina and Winnipeg, both were somewhat improbable third period rallies. Rookie sensation Jack Eichel is not nearly as prolific on the road w/ only eight of his 23 goals coming there, including only one in the L11 games. Furthermore, the team has averaged just 25 shots per game its last three contests.

Detroit needs a strong outing here from Petr Mrazek, who got chased Saturday by Pittsburgh and now has a 4.34 goals against average and .883 save percentage his last four starts. But the Wings netminder has had Buffalo's number through the years (2.55 GAA), including a 19-save shutout back on January 22nd.  He's started all four games vs. the Sabres this season and won three of them.  Note that the Red Wings did bounce back from an embarrassing 6-2 loss to Tampa Bay w/ a win on home ice against Montreal on Thursday, so a precedent has been set.  The Wings have a strong record at home in games decided in regulation and I don't see them having much trouble here.  6* Detroit

9* Carolina (5:05 ET):  Both of these teams are technically still alive in the playoff hunt. But, it would be surprising if either made it. The Devils and 'Canes are five and six points back, respectively, of the final Wild Card and of course there's very few games left to play. So the loser here is all but dead.  Recently, I've been siding with the team that has home ice advantage in matchups such as this one and I won't deviate from that game plan here as I think the matchup itself is quite good for Carolina, a team that ranks 2nd in Corsi and 7th in Fenwick, meaning they typically do a great job at possessing the puck. New Jersey by comparison is just 29th in both Corsi & Fenwick and averages a league-low 24.5 shots per game while also being 30th (i.e.) last in goals per game.

Carolina snapped a five-game losing skid w/ a 3-2 win in Columbus Thursday night. Unfortunately, they followed that up by dropping an overtime game to the Islanders last night, 4-3.  This club has had just the worst luck in one-goal games recently (five of last six losses have been by that exact margin) and the game winner last night was scored w/ just 13.8 seconds left in OT.  The 'Canes, who are now an unfathomably bad 1-15 straight up in games that go past regulation (most OT/shootout losses in the league), clearly deserve a better fate this season.  Five of their last seven losses have come in OT or a shootout.   Overall, they are 17-24 SU in one-goal games this season. Frustrating is that they outshot the Islanders last night, 36-31, but still came up short on the scoreboard. 

New Jersey never seems to outshoot anybody. I've been through this "bugaboo" of theirs before and they too are off an overtime loss, 1-0 to the Capitals on Friday. They finished w/ only 22 shots on goals in the shutout loss, making it 10 of 12 games this month where they've been outshot.  Remember that there's still no Cory Schneider (knee injury) between the pipes for the Devils, who instead have to turn to Keith Kincaid (.857 save percentage L4 starts!) in this spot. Friday marked the eighth time the team has been shut out this season.  9* Carolina

9* San Jose (4:05 ET):  I feel like I've been through this "song and dance" before, but suffice to say that the Sharks would be in an even better position right now were it not for a disappointing 16-17-3 home record.  I had the misfortune of taking them in a 1-0 loss to St. Louis on Tuesday, then they dropped yet another one here, this time 6-3 to Edmonton on Thursday.  Still very safe in terms of playoff position (up 15 pts for 3rd in the Pacific), San Jose's goal remains garnering home ice advantage for their first round series, which would be against either the Kings or Ducks. Of course, they are only five points back of first place!  I rate them as a top four team in the West and don't see them dropping a third in a row here on home ice.

The visitor here is Dallas, a formidable challenger considering they come into Saturday in the driver's seat in the Central. But they just lost two night ago in Arizona, which really isn't a very good sign. By now, we all know the story with the Stars as they are quite prolific in goal scoring (1st in the league), but not so much when it comes to stopping their opponent from scoring (24th in goals allowed).  This dichotomy probably places a lower ceiling than they'd like on any potential playoff run and for tonight's purposes, I'd like to point out that they are coming off their lowest scoring game in a month and are down their second leading scorer (Tyler Seguin). Goalie Antii Niemi has struggled on the road all season (.896 save percentage) and over his last four starts is at just .867. 

San Jose "should" have a much better home record. Not just because most teams typically win more than they lose at their own rink, but also because of the numbers. On average, they are outshooting opponents 32.9 to 25.2 this season in home games and have a positive scoring differential here. Thursday's loss to Edmonton was emblematic of the issues as they outshot the Oilers 26-22, but blew a two-goal lead. This woeful 8.6 shooting percentage at home HAS to rise as the team is third in the league overall in goals per game.  Martin Jones (.937 L4 starts) gives them the necessary edge in goal they need this afternoon. 9* San Jose

8* Tampa Bay (7:30 ET):  This is a really important game, for both teams, who are the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Lightning, who have cooled off some since a nine-game win streak (just 3-3-1 L7), are currently in second place in the Atlantic, two points back of Florida.  The Islanders situation is a bit more precarious as they are in fourth in the Metro, meaning they'd be a Wild Card, and there are two teams just two points back of them. There's certainly more reason to be concerned w/ the Isles right now as they've dropped six of eight overall and both wins came on the road. In fact, they haven't won on the road in nearly three weeks! That won't change after tonight.  Go with the home team.

The key for Tampa Bay, as it is for most teams, is getting shots on goal. In their last three wins, they have averaged 35.7 shots per game. In their last three losses, they've averaged just 22.0.  They've totaled 70 shots the L2 games, both wins, where they outscored opponents 8-2. It was an impressive 6-2 win here on home ice Tuesday vs. Detroit that at the time tied them w/ Florida atop the division. It was nice to see an offensive performance like that as the team has struggled more than expected on that end of the ice all season. But the goaltending situation is solid (#2 in goals allowed). Ben Bishop has a .953 save percentage his L4 starts.  The Panthers won last night, now it's time for the Lightning to respond in kind. 

As for the Isles, they've averaged just 24.4 shots their last five games.  They've been doubled up in goals during that same span and while Wednesday's win (3-1 over Ottawa) was nice, the bottom line is that this club has been struggling.  They'd scored just five goals total the previous four games and as I alluded to earlier, it's been a long time since they won on the road. That last road win came on March 6th vs. the Rangers, so you'd actually have to go back three days earlier (Winnipeg) to find the last time they won a game outside their own city.  With Jaroslav Halak still sidelined, goaltending is a bit of a concern here. Thomas Greiss has filled in somewhat admirably, but the bottom line is that the team has lost five of his last six starts.  8* Tampa Bay

8* Columbus (7:05 ET):  Here we go again with a battle of two teams out of playoff contention and me being on the home side. This has worked out quite well for me of late w/ Winnipeg over Vancouver, Toronto over Calgary, New Jersey over Columbus, Ottawa over Montreal and Edmonton over Vancouver and that's just over the past week. Of course, regardless of situation, I've done quite well with my NHL sides this season, going 58-34 L92!  But I'm not here to brag, but rather tell you about why Columbus is a good play tonight when they welcome in Carolina. The visiting 'Canes, at least according to Fenwick and Corsi, have been somewhat underrated this year, but they come into tonight's game as losers of five straight. The Blue Jackets, meanwhile, actually have posted a winning record (in regulation) since November after that awful start.

This five game losing streak has seen the Hurricanes give up way more shots than per usual (32.0 per game) plus they're not scoring either (1.8 goals/game).  That's a bad combo and given that we're talking about a team that never really found its way into contention this season, I find it hard to believe that the players will find "the fire" to start climbing out of this hole, at least when on the road.  Goaltending has been a liability for Carolina all season long w/ a collective .902 save percentage between Cam Ward and Eddie Lack.  The former is more likely to go here and he is just 3-7 SU in division contests this year. Ward allowed three goals on just 25 shots Tuesday in a home loss to Buffalo.

Columbus has struggled in the past against Carolina (2-7 L9 matchups), but again I think that the home ice is key here as they have won six of nine here at Nationwide Arena while the 'Canes have dropped four in a row on the road.  Though only 2-3 their last five games, the Blue Jackets have averaged an impressive 36.0 shots per game during that same stretch after tallying a season-high 53 in Tuesday's shootout win over the Flyers.  It was the team's fourth straight game outshooting their opponent. Sergei Bobrovsky has been shockingly subpar between the pipes for the Jackets this year at home, but I'd still take him over his Carolina counterpart.  8* Columbus

8* NY Rangers (8:05 ET):  I've recently discussed just how bunched up the Eastern Conference playoff picture is as after the inevitability of Washington being the top seed (now clinched!), teams 2 through 7 are extremely close, which should make for three outstanding first round playoff series. Two such teams in the mix play here w/ the Rangers and Bruins each looking to finish in second place of their respective divisions and thus earn home ice advantage for that opening round best of seven.  Boston has been remarkably good on the road this year overall (23-10-3), but they are coming off an 0-3 trip through Southern California (San Jose, Anaheim, LA) and thus limp into MSG where the Rangers are 24-8-3 this season. Go w/ the home team.

Unlike the Rangers, Boston actually still can finish in first place in their division as they are just three points back of the two Florida teams (Panthers & Lightning) in the Atlantic. But, at the same time, they are currently in third while the Rangers are second in the Metro.  As alluded to above, it was not a pleasant trip out West for the Bruins, who got outscored 9-3 and dropped all three games.  But the worst loss of all could be the one between the pipes as goalie Tuukka Rask is now injured and unlikely to play tonight.  Though Rask was charged with two of the three losses in Southern California, his .931 save percentage on the road this season would sorely be missed here.  His backup Jonas Gustavsson allowed four goals on 26 shots in Friday's loss at Anaheim.  Note that this play stands even if Rask does play.

The Rangers were coming off their own unsuccessful trek through SoCal (went 1-2 against same three opponents) before returning home to defeat Florida 4-2 on Monday.  I really think that the home ice advantage is critical here. Not only has the home side won each of the last five meetings between these two teams, but NY goalie Henrik Lundqvist is 20-7 SU at MSG this year w/ a .921 save percentage.  That includes a 32-save effort versus these Bruins back in January (Rangers won 2-1).  You might think that all the time Boston has had off between games (last played Saturday) will help them, but they are just 1-6 SU this season when taking the ice with at least three days of rest.  8* NY Rangers

10* San Jose (10:35 ET):  This is a battle of teams safely in playoff position.  St. Louis, despite having an inferior YTD goal differential compared to the other top teams in the Central, finds itself just two points back of Dallas. Meanwhile, San Jose is a very safe third over in the Pacific (19 points clear of 4th place) and is battling w/ Anaheim for second place and home ice advantage in that likely first round series.  While the Sharks' league-best 25-10-3 road record is certainly deserving of adulation, you can't help but wonder where they'd be if only they'd been a big stronger on home ice this year.  A losing overall record (16-15-3) is why they find themselves in third and not first, but I think that record is due to start improving moving forward.  Take the Sharks here.

I referenced the Blues' goal differential earlier and to follow up on that point, the team has outscored its opponents by only a nine-goal difference over the course of this season.  That's 14th in the league, so the fact they are competing for the #1 seed in the West shows me they've been both lucky and good.  They are 23-12 in one-goal games to this point (only the Capitals have been better). Tonight marks the end of a five-game road trip that really had not been going well prior to a dominant 3-0 win in Vancouver Saturday night (50-19 edge in shots!). After escaping Dallas w/ an overtime win, St. Louis lost to both Edmonton and Calgary, giving up 13 goals in the process.  I realize that goaltender Brian Elliott is now back, but he did not fare well in two meetings vs. San Jose last month, giving up six goals on 47 shots and getting pulled early one of those times, an eventual 6-3 loss.

The Sharks have a +29 goal differential for the year, which is better than any team from the Central and second only to the Kings in the Western Conference. They rank higher than St. Louis in both Corsi and Fenwick. Over their last five games, they've played really well w/ the only loss coming on the road, 3-1 at Arizona.  They avenged that defeat w/ a 3-0 shutout on Sunday and have now won four straight here at home. This team allows only 25.3 shots per game at home, so that record should be better, especially considering they average 33.0 shots per game themselves here at "The Tank."  A good value on the better team. 10* San Jose

8* Winnipeg (8:05 ET): This follows my recent trend of simply going w/ the home team in a battle of also-rans that are simply "playing out the string" at this juncture of the season (see Toronto over Calgary last night). Here, we have two teams that have really been struggling of late. Vancouver, I went against in similar fashion last Friday when they were shut out in Edmonton, 2-0.  They followed that w/ another shut out loss, this one at home, 3-0 vs. St. Louis. That was their fourth straight loss, a stretch that has seen them get outscored 13-3.  They are now tied with the Oilers for the worst goal differential in the league (-38). Back on the road again Tuesday, I see no reason why anyone should look to back them in this spot.

Now Winnipeg is hardly inspiring much confidence as of late.  They've lost 9 of 12, not to mention three straight, the last two of which have been here on home ice. After getting shut out themselves (by Chicago) Friday night, they took Anaheim into overtime Sunday before ultimately coming up short on the scoreboard, losing 3-2. But when you look at those last two opponents, you quickly realize that this is a steep drop in class for the Jets.  Their last win in fact, came at Vancouver, 5-2 on March 14th.  They've now beaten the Canucks three straight times dating back to the final meeting of last season. Yes, Winnipeg might be in last place in the Western Conference, but this is an opponent they've proven they can beat.

Something will have to give here as both power plays have been virtually non-existent. Vancouver is 0 for its last 23 w/ the man advantage while Winnipeg is just 2 for 36 this month. But the Canucks' recent form has been really bad, particularly when they were outshot by the Blues 50-16 Saturday night.  Their offense, worst in the conference is averaging just 2.1 goals per game its last 22 after being shut out back to back times.  They've experienced a lot of bad luck on the road this year and I see no reason why that would start to change here.  8* Winnipeg

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): I've had a little bit of success recently in matchups of teams respectively 'playing out the string' by simply going with the one that has home ice advantage. (Think Edmonton over Vancouver the other night).  Another such opportunity presents itself on Monday's card w/ the Maple Leafs hosting the Flames. The situation 'North of the Border' has grown dire in the NHL as none of the league's Canadian teams appear likely to make the playoffs. Calgary did last year, but was an obvious candidate to regress in 2015-16 and regress they have as their 68 points is near the bottom of the league. Of course, at the bottom of the league w/ only 61 points is Toronto, but the Leafs have shown some signs of life lately by winning four of their previous six games. Make it five of seven after tonight!

Coming into this season, we knew the Leafs were still in the midst of a long rebuilding process. For years, a foolish approach to the game could only get them to the fringes of playoff contention and then the bottom dropped out two seasons ago.  But for a team that the analytics most certainly 'hated' for years, there have actually been some slight improvements this year. One is that they are giving up far less shots per game and recently (L5 games) that number is down to a more than respectable 27.0.  They have outshot opponents, on a per game average, 32.0 to 29.6 at home this season (31-21 Sat vs. Buffalo).  When it comes to Corsi and Fenwick ratings, they are actually 3rd and 8th respectively, which is the highest they've been in years!

Calgary is actually 5-1-2 their last eight games, including a road win at Montreal by a score of 4-1 yday. But the odds are against them coming up victorious in B2B games.  At no point during this season have they won on the road in consecutive nights! In fact, one would have to go all the way back to December to find the ONLY time the Flames have won two in a row on the road.  Playing in the second game of a back to back, their record is just 3-7 SU this season.  They are just 11-23 on the road overall and 3-12 their last 15 visits to Toronto. The Leafs goaltending situation certainly seems better here w/ Jonathan Bernier, whose career marks vs. Calgary are among his best against any opponent in the league (1.60 GAA). Bernier has allowed one goal or less in three of his past four starts (.952 save percentage). 10* Toronto

10* New Jersey (5:05 ET):  This is the second game of a home and home as Columbus took Saturday's game by a score of 6-3, snapping a three-game losing streak while at the same time doubling their scoring output from the trifecta of losses. To me, it wasn't too big of a shocker to see the Devils lose in that spot as they were coming off a big surprise in their own right, a 7-4 win here at home over Minnesota two nights earlier.  The amount of goals that New Jersey has allowed its last three games (17!) is pretty stunning, but that's not enough to keep me from taking them in this rematch Sunday afternoon on home ice.

The Blue Jackets remain mired in last place (66 points) and rarely do they win B2B games. Consecutive victories has happened just once for this team over the last month and while that involved a win over New Jersey (6-1), it was was the first, not second, leg of the win streak. The fact is that Columbus goaltending is a greater concern than that of their opponent's here as the Jackets rank 29th in the league in goals allowed (3.1 per game).  With Sergei Bobrovsky starting yday, more than likely it will be Joonas Korpisalo between the pipes today and he is simply not as effective.  The offense, which has shown up in each of their three victories in March has disappeared in the defeats, totaling just three goals in four games (two shutouts). The change in venue from Saturday also plays a significant role as Columbus is just 13-21 SU on the road this season, including three straight losses.

As for New Jersey, I simply do not understand why they have had so much trouble with Columbus through the years. Saturday marked their sixth straight loss to them and fourth this season.  The continued absence of Cory Schneider between the pipes is a problem, but I expect "a little pride" to kick in here for the Devils after being beaten up yday. They did rally from an early 3-0 hole to tie the game up, but then a disastrous third period spelled the end for them.  This is a good price range to go against a bad team playing on the road.  10* New Jersey

10* Ottawa (7:05 ET):  It took awhile for a line to be posted for this matchup as not only did the Senators play last night (lost), but there was also some debate as to whom would be between the pipes for Montreal. It turns out that the answer to that debate is Ben Scrivens, who is coming off a season-high 41 saves in his team's 3-2 overtime win over Buffalo Friday night.  Buffalo is who Ottawa lost to last night, 3-1 (I had the Under!), as their slim playoff hopes got even slimmer. While it's the Sens playing the second game of a back to back, and off a loss to the same team the Habs just beat, I feel that they are the right side here as the Canadiens remain overvalued from the start of the season.

Any time you lose to a team like the Sabres, it pretty much drives home the fact that you're not very good.  Scoring only one goal had to be a major disappointment for Ottawa last night as they had 33 shots on goal and were off B2B wins.  Those victories came in spite of low shot totals, but it's also important to note that both came at home as well where the team is simply much better.  While only 14-19-3 on the road, they are a more than respectable 19-12-5 on home ice this season and they haven't gotten to welcome in Montreal since all the way back in October. It's important to remember that the Senators are 7th in the league in goals per game and they have a winning record this year when coming off a game where they scored one goal or less.

Sens goaltender Craig Anderson was chased the last time these division rivals met (back in December), but it should be pointed out that he was under siege the entire time as Montreal put a franchise record 27 shots on net in the first period. That should not happen again. Also, can Ottawa finally score on the power play? They are now 0 for 21 the last eight games.  Montreal has been on the descent ever since Carey Price got hurt, which was back in late November, and as a result they have dropped from 1st to 20th in goals allowed. Scrivens will likely not come close to repeating his strong showing vs the Sabres. The Habs have lost 32 of their last 47 games overall and rarely record B2B wins. 10* Ottawa

8* Edmonton (9:05 ET):  You won't find the Oilers in this price range very often, but in this case it's more than justified based on their impressive 6-4 win over St. Louis the other night and the fact that Vancouver just dropped B2B killer home games.  Losses to both the Jets and Avalanche all but ended the Canucks slim hopes of making a playoff push and I'm anticipating they'll hit the ice flat here.  What's really got to be eye-opening for Vancouver fans is that their team is far closer to Edmonton (three points) than they are to the playoffs (10 points back).  It's a matchup of teams w/ the two worst goal differentials in the Western Conference here and given that the Oilers are actually a .500 team here on home ice, I'll throw my support behind them.

Now Edmonton's win over the Blues needs to be taken w/ a little grain of salt as they scored an incredible four power play goals, which is obviously well above the norm. Then again, after going just 2 for their last 33 w/ the man advantage, they were likely due to turn things around in that department. I should mention that the Oilers have won 6 of their last 10 games and what's actually interesting is that a majority of those victories have come on the road. But at home is clearly where they're better (17-17-2 overall) and I think they'll still be motivated after losing to Arizona and Nashville here earlier in the week. Over the last five games, they are giving up an average of just 26.8 shots/game, which is very good.

Vancouver continues to give up plenty of shots on a game by game basis and that number has now reached 33.0 on the road for the season.  Thats not a good sign when they only average 2.36 goals per game themselves, which ranks 27th overall in the league.  Since Feb 13, the Canucks have won exactly one road game.  Goalie Jacob Markstrom really struggled in his last start, giving up five goals to Winnipeg on only 29 shots. For the Oilers, Cam Talbot was not at his best Wednesday, but he didn't have to be and his save percentage over the course of the season is slightly better than Markstrom's. 8* Edmonton

8* Nashville (8:05 ET):  As I've written about several times in the last couple weeks, Nashville's playoff fate now seems fairly safe as they've built a pretty significant cushion between themselves and the only other two teams competing for a Wild Card in the Western Conference. It now looks almost certain that the Preds will be the first of the two WC's, though they are only five points back of the suddenly slumping Blackhawks for third place in the Central Division. Therefore, I wouldn't expect any kind of "let up" here as the team returns home from a five game trip out West. After B2B losses to Calgary and Vancouver, the Preds were able to bounce back w/ a 3-2 win in Edmonton Monday night, thus avoiding a winless trek through Western Canada.  I think they'll get another two points here.

The Preds host the Islanders tonight and the visitors have dropped three of four as they jostle with the rival Rangers for second in the Metro.  Finishing second obviously means home ice advantage in a first round series, so clearly the Isles aren't lacking for motivation here either. But they are lacking Jaroslav Halak, their top goaltender, who is out for the rest of the regular season w/ the dreaded lower-body injury.  They are also lacking in road wins lately as the team's last three away games have all resulted in losses, the most recent coming Tuesday in Pittsburgh, 2-1. The team is also not getting many scoring opportunities recently and has been outshot in four of its last five games.

Nashville, on the other hand, is averaging plenty of shots recently and continues to rank well in both Corsi (7th) and Fenwick (2nd) over the course of the season. This is not a team that either division winner would want to see in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  I'm surprised that the home record isn't a little better (six OT/shootout losses), but the bottom line is the Preds are 10-1-5 their last 16 games overall and were it not for the most losses beyond regulation in the entire league (13), this team would be an even greater lock for the postseason. They have revenge here for a 4-3 loss in Brooklyn back in October where they had a 47-28 edge in shots, but blew a two-goal lead.  8* Nashville

8* Minnesota (7:05 ET):  After losing 3-2 (in Ottawa) their last time out, this is a huge game for the Wild, who trail Colorado by one point in the chase for the final playoff spot out West. Note that Minnesota grades out as the better of the two teams mainly due to a +9 goal differential (Avs are -8).  But it's not like Ottawa had been playing well of late and they still were able to beat the Wild on Tuesday (Note: I won w/ the Under!). It was an absolutely brutal loss, by the way, as the Senators tied the game up with only seven seconds remaining in regulation. That cost Minny a point, which is obviously now the difference in the standings between them and Colorado. The Avs won last night (3-1 at Vancouver), so now the ball (or rather puck) is in the Wild's court (or rather rink). They must get the two points here.

The opponent is New Jersey and it's actually the Devils' rink where this one will take place.  But no worries, the Devils have a losing record here and also got blown out in their last game, 7-1 at Anaheim.  For awhile there, the Devils were threatening to earn a playoff spot themselves, but I never bought them as legit contenders mainly because of their extraordinarily low shot totals.  They average only 24.5 per game, easily the lowest number in the league, and to put things in perspective the gap between them and #29 (Arizona) is larger than the gap between #29 and #4! Recently, the number of scoring opportunities has only continued to shrink w/ the Devils averaging just 20.6 shots their L5 games. Therefore, it should not come as any shock to find them averaging just 1.8 goals over the same time frame. Nor should it be a shock that this club ranks dead last in the league in goals per game for the season.

Four times in the last nine games, New Jersey has been beaten by four goals or more. Clearly, that's very, very bad.  So, getting to go against them at this price seems like a real "steal" considering they've been +195 or higher on the money line in five of their last six contests.  Somehow, there were only 35 total shots on goal in the only other meeting between these clubs this season (2-1 win by the Devils), but here I give the goaltending edge to the Wild as Devan Dubnyk is 5-1-1 his L7 starts w/ a 2.10 goals against average while it looks like the Devils will be turning to Keith Kincaid (.879 save percentage L4), not Cory Schneider. 8* Minnesota

8* Anaheim (10:35 ET):  This is - easily - the best matchup on Wednesday's NHL slate, but one that I feel offers a distinct edge to one side nonetheless.  Anaheim was a team I figured would regress this year (was the top seed in the West last year) as 2014-15 saw them experience a great deal of so-called "puck luck" and post an abnormally good record in games decided by one goal.  But, early on, they regressed harder than even I had expected. For much of this year, the offense ranked 30th (last) in the league in scoring and it looked like they would struggle just to make the playoffs even in weak Pacific Division. However, ever since the All-Star Break, something has "clicked" and they are 19-3-2 their L24 games. I'm on them here.

Save for overall goal scoring (where they are now 23rd in the league), the Ducks numbers across the board are very impressive.  They are #2 in goal allowed, #2 on the power play and #1 in penalty killing.  They just destroyed New Jersey Monday night, 7-1, on the heels of three straight losses. Obviously, after going 18-1-1 in a 20-game span, the Ducks were likely to "give some back," but now that they have, I'm willing to start supporting them again. Over their last 10 home games, the team is 9-0-1 w/ a non-shootout goal differential of +19.  Yes, they very likely won't score as many times here as they did in the last game, but considering in 10 of the last 12 games they've allowed two or fewer goals, they should be just fine. Both Frederik Andersen and John Gibson have been red hot of late.

As for the Rangers, they have allowed a total of 18 goals their last five games, a span which has seen them get outshot - on average - 35.6 to 25.4.  That's obviously not good at all.  Overall, the Blueshirts have dropped three of four w/ the one win coming at the expense of lowly Buffalo.  It may not even be Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes for tonight's game. I could make a case that the Rangers are among the most overrated teams in the league right now as advanced stats do not like them one bit. They are 26th in Corsi and 22nd in Fenwick, easily the worst rankings among Eastern Conference contenders. 8* Anaheim

6* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET):  It's quite the opposite directions that these two Atlantic Division clubs have been trending in of late, so the fact that the Leafs are off win only makes it more tempting to go against them here as the red-hot Lightning come to town. Now Tampa Bay, who is embroiled in a three-horse race for the division lead, had dropped three in a row before Sunday's 4-0 shutout of Columbus. But before that they'd won nine straight, seven of those coming in regulation.  One was a 2-1 win here in Toronto as they improved to 3-0 this season vs. the Maple Leafs. Simply put, given the race that they're involved in, the Lightning cannot afford to drop a game like this. The juice is high, but w/ Toronto off a rare win, they're prime fade material.

Just one point separates first from third in the Atlantic and right now the Lightning are tied w/ Florida, one point back of Boston. Over their last four games, Tampa Bay has alternated games w/ high and low shot totals and while they had 37 their last game, the trend should discontinue here as Toronto is still allowing more than 30 per game over the course of the season. As I've discussed in other recent analysis for TB games, their offense has come on strong in the second half and now ranks in the top ten in goals per game, which is where we all figured it would be prior to the start of the season. But the strength of this team is still its goaltending as they've allowed the third fewest goals per game average in the league. 

The last two times these teams have played, Toronto has scored just one goal total. Consider they have yet to face Ben Bishop this year and the Lightning netminder has a .941 save percentage his L4 starts after Sunday's shutout of the Blue Jackets.  Toronto has scored just one goal in its last two games overall and that was last time out, a 1-0 win over Detroit (I had the Under!), a game they happened to be outshot 38-27. I don't see them being that fortunate again as not only have division games gone terribly for the Leafs this season (2-19!), but they last posted B2B wins in early February. Meanwhile, the Lightning are a perfect 4-0 off a shutout win this season. 6* Tampa Bay

10* Vancouver (10:05 ET): Though it's "all over but the shouting" for the Canucks, they have come on strong of late, including a nice win for me over Nashville Saturday night. (I actually took them on the Puck Line). It was their third win in the last four games and while they still are eight points out of the Wild Card chase, they certainly appear to have some winnable games upcoming. It starts by welcoming in last place Winnipeg.  The Jets also won Saturday, 3-2 over Colorado, but that was just their third win in the last 13 games overall. Did you know that this team has just one three-game win streak all season?? One would have to go back more than a month to find the last time they won B2B games. Go with the Canucks here.

Vancouver probably should have a better record/more points. They have suffered 12 losses beyond regulation, second most in the league. No team has been worse when leading after two periods as their record in such situations is only 15-4-7.   Goaltender Ryan Miller has a .921 save percentage at home. Now there still are some concerns, namely the fact the team has been outshot in four consecutive games.  But nevertheless, I like this matchup for them. The Canucks have won seven of nine at home against the Jets. They have revenge for a 4-1 loss in Manitoba.  The Jets are allowing 32.4 shots per game their last five contests.

Vancouver's home record is surprisingly bad (13-16-5), but Winnipeg's road record is predictably bad (13-18-3).   Across the board, the Jets are pretty bad: 21st in goals per game, 26th in goals allowed, 28th on the power play and 25th on the penalty kill.  Earlier, I mentioned Vancouver's disappointing record when leading after two periods. Well, Winnipeg is 1-25-3 when trailing after two periods. That one win came their last time out, at home against Colorado.  Goaltending has been a bit of a concern here all season. For likely starter Ondrej Pavalec, his struggles have come out on the road as he owns a poor .895 save percentage there. Speaking of struggles on the road, the Jets have not won here in Vancouver since '04 when they were known as the Atlanta Thrashers. 10* Vancouver

8* Nashville (9:05 ET):  I just played against the Predators in their last game.  I actually took the puck line w/ Vancouver and turns out that I didn't even need the +1.5 as the Canucks took the game outright, 4-2.  For the Preds, it was their second straight defeat. Now in my analysis for the game, I made mention of the potential for complacency to set it now that they are seven points clear of the only two other teams competing for the two Wild Card spots. Strange as it may seem, that one loss has somewhat caused me to have a "change of heart" as I certainly don't think the Preds are going to be willing to go 0-3 on this trek through Western Canada. Fortunately, things wrap up here in Edmonton, where they'll find the team tied for the fewest points in the Western Conference. Take Nashville here.

Edmonton just got shut out Saturday night, 4-0 here at home by lowly Arizona.  That makes it two straight home games that they've been shut out as San Jose got them 3-0 back on Tuesday. In between, they did manage to sneak out a 2-1 victory over Minnesota (thereby giving Nashville some help). Even with all the fanfare surrounding Connor McDavid, this remains a poor team, one that ranks 28th in goals per game and 25th in goals allowed. They are bottom eight in both Corsi and Fenwick as well.  With their season winding down and little to play for, it is pretty difficult to endorse the Oilers at this point. They are 8-15 SU after scoring 1 goal or less their last game and 10-16 SU after allowing four or more.

Nashville is 2-0 already this season vs. Edmonton. They've allowed just one goal in those two wins. Pekka Rinne was in goal for both of those games and likely will be again here. He had been incredibly sharp during the team's 14-game point streak.  I'm willing to write off Saturday's "slip-up" as just that. Consider that one of the four goals allowed was an empty-netter.  Rinne has allowed just one goal total the last three times he has started against the Oilers, stopping 91 of 92 shots.  This is a team that ranks 7th in Corsi and 2nd in Fenwick. They are better than Edmonton in every conceivable way. They show that Monday night.  8* Nashville

10* Dallas (9:05 ET):  I'm liking this matchup a lot as these are two of the teams in the three-horse race for the Central Division.  St. Louis is the hot team right now (five straight wins), but it's interesting to note that they have a goal differential of just +10 for the year, which happens to be their goal differential during the five-game win streak. So prior to getting on this roll, they were dead even in goals scored vs. against, which shows that they've largely overachieved.  Dallas, who just picked up a big 5-2 win at home last night against Chicago, has a goal differential of +25.  The Stars were struggling in February, but have now won three of four and I think they relish this opportunity to get the Blues at home. The home side has won all four previous meetings between these two this year.

Dallas is 22-10-1 on home ice this year and outscoring its opponents by 0.7 goals per game. They've gotten to host St. Louis just one time this season, right before the New Year, and shut them out 3-0 w/ a 38-22 edge in shots.  Neither of these teams have had much difficulty scoring of late. The Blues have averaged an incredible 4.2 goals per game during their win streak while the Stars are at 3.8. But troubling for Blues fans has to be the fact the team is also allowing 34.4 shots per game, a very high number that is more than any other club gives up per game this year.  They've actually been outshot each of the last two games, but thanks to goalie Jake Allen continue to pull out victories. But given that the Blues rank just 23rd in the league in goals per game, this is not a sustainable formula for success.

Dallas, as we know, is an offensive juggernaut. They have basically gone "wire to wire" this season leading the league in goals per game (currently 3.2), so we can likely count on them sustaining recent offensive production as it is right in line with season long numbers.  What I've been most impressed with lately though is the Stars' ability to limit the number of shots by opponents as that number is down to an average of 25.8 the last five games.  Both teams played yday (Blues won 5-2 vs. Anaheim), so no edge there, but the bottom line is one team has been better over the long-term. 10* Dallas

8* Ottawa (7:05 ET):  Toronto actually showed signs of some improvement (by their standard) early on this season, so it has to be disconcerting for them to be in last place in the league w/ only 55 points. They have the worst goal differential in the entire league (-38), so them coming off a rare win (as they are here) is probably a good time to go against them.  The win, 4-3 over the Islanders, took place at home. They've been playing on home ice a lot lately (9 of their last 11 games), so considering they won only two of those games, them being the road team here is troubling.  Their 20 road losses in regulation are second most in the league, trailing Edmonton by only one.  This is a game Ottawa simply must have. I'm on them.

The Senators have lost three straight and five of six.  Two nights ago, it was a 6-2 loss at Florida and the club now finds itself seven points back of the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference.  So, again, this is a game they simply cannot afford to lose.  I mentioned that they've lost five of six. Guess who the one win came against?  Yes, Toronto, whom they are 3-0 against this season.  The only time they've gotten to play host, the final score was 6-1.  Division games simply have not gone well for the Maple Leafs this season as they are 1-18(!) in them.  Getting back to Ottawa's desperation, they are 4-1 SU this season when off three straight losses.

The Sens do give up too many shots per game (most in the league), but that's long been an issue for the Leafs as well, so (and this is re-emphasized by the head to head results) this seems to be a tailor-made matchup.  Toronto is clearly playing with an eye towards the future as they now have the youngest blue line in league history and that's trouble w/ a goaltender (Garrett Sparks) who has an .889 save percentage on the road. Ottawa's Craig Anderson has struggled of late, but still owns a .931 save percentage at home. 8* Ottawa

6* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The pressure is on the Wild here as Colorado, who they are competing with for the final playoff spot out West, picked up a big win against Anaheim last night. That makes it a two-point deficit for Minnesota, which obviously can be made up here as they host Edmonton.  The Oilers had actually won three in a row at one point, but have since dropped two of three w/ both losses coming by three goal margins.  Tuesday saw them get blanked at home by San Jose, 3-0, which isn't a good sign seeing as they are just 7-15 SU following a game where they scored one or no goals. Meanwhile, Minnesota is also off a loss, 4-2 at home to St. Louis, but they've had three days off and had won four in a row prior. I see them bouncing back in a game they absolutely cannot afford to lose.

Edmonton is just awful on the road as they are 10-21-5, which is the most road losses of any team in the league.  Hence, it should not be a surprise to find them tied at the bottom of the Western Conference w/ just 59 points.  There's little to play for these last 13 games, so I don't expect a very motivated club here nor down the stretch. Minnesota, meanwhile, has everything to play for (i.e. the playoffs).  They are 8-4 since the coaching change and while their results have been surprisingly poor this season when playing with this much rest, I simply cannot see them losing on home ice to a last place opponent.  They are 2-0 against the Oilers already this year, including a 5-2 win in Edmonton last month.

Edmonton just isn't scoring much lately (two goals or less in 12 of the last 17 games) and a power play that's just 1 for its last 24 isn't helping matters.  Of course, this really isn't anything new; the team ranks 27th overall for the year in goals per game, not to mention they are 25th in goals allowed as well.  The Wild have scored nine times in the two games against the Oilers this season.  They typically do a good job at limiting the number of shot opportunities by the opponent, but have gotten away from that recently. This has bounce back written all over it for a team that hasn't dropped B2B home games in nearly a month. 6* Minnesota

8* Anaheim (10:05 ET): The Ducks have surged to the top of the Pacific with a 11-0-1 mark their last 12 games and its actually not out of the realm of possibility that they finish w/ the most points in the Western Conference! This is quite the stunning development for a team that seemed bound to regress from LY's fortunate campaign (had remarkable record in one-goal games) and in fact, had started slow.  For much of the year, the offense languished in last place league-wide in terms of goals per game. But they're now up to 23rd, which is pretty notable, but not nearly as notable as the fact they are #1 in goals allowed per game. I look for this club to continue its recent strong play with another win tonight in Colorado.

Now the Ducks' one loss over the L12 games did come their last time out, but that was in a shootout vs. Washington, who is of course the top ranked team in the league right now. But it's important not to diminish the 11 straight wins prior as the game vs. the Caps clearly could have gone either way. For the most part, Anaheim had been dominating teams during its win streak as only three times were they taken past regulation and six of the victories came by multiple goals.  Overall, the team is 20-2-2 its last 24 games.  Whomever starts in goal is a fine option as Frederik Andersen has not lost in regulation in 2016 (12-0-2) thanks to a 1.76 goals against average and John Gibson leads the league w/ a 2.04 GAA this season. Special teams are a real strength with this club as they rank 2nd on the power play and 3rd in penalty killing.

As for Colorado, it has basically come down to a battle with Minnesota for the final playoff spot in the West. Lately, the Avs haven't really helped themselves w/ just three wins over the last seven games.  One of those wins came their last time on the ice, but that was also against awful Arizona (here at home).  The last five games have seen the Avs give up an average of 3.8 goals on 35.2 shots.  Those numbers are particularly troubling given who the opponent is tonight as offensively they figure to struggle.  This season has seen Colorado go just 4-11 when off a win by two or more goals. 8* Anaheim

8* Florida (9:05 ET): The Panthers no longer have first place to themselves in the Atlantic as red hot Tampa Bay has caught them and both Floridian franchises are currently at 80 points. Third place Boston is only two points back. Of course, any Panthers fan would have gladly taken this situation at the start of the season as not much was expected from this perennial bottom-feeder. Speaking of bottom-feeders, I am going against Arizona here as the 'Yotes have dropped seven straight, most of them in blowout fashion. Look for another to be added to the list tonight.

For Florida, this is the end of a five-game trip. They've lost three of the previous four games, thus allowing the Lightning to catch them, but now it's time to "get real."  Losing two of three against the bottom of the Central is not great, but a loss at last place (in the Metro) Columbus was even worse.  But note that in their last home game, they beat who?  Arizona!  It's interesting to note that the game before that was a win over Winnipeg, then they were able to beat the Jets yet again, this time for the only win on this road trip.   Overall, the club is 18-12 SU this season when taking on a team with a losing record.

Arizona has been outscored 29-12 during its seven-game slide and the last two results have been downright ugly as they fell 6-0 at Pittsburgh and then 5-1 here at home to Anaheim.  Over their last five games, the Coyotes are actually being outscored by 2.8 goals per game, which is really difficult to "pull off."  They figure to not get many shot opportunities here as that's one thing Florida has done well of late (26.8 shots allowed L5 games). As far as goaltending is concerned, all of the 'Yotes options look pretty ugly.   Florida is currently 3rd in the league in goals allowed! I'll call for them (Panthers) to pick up a much needed two points here.  8* Florida

10* Buffalo (7:05 ET): Rarely, if ever, do the Sabres get my highest rating. But here they draw a fellow bottom feeder (Calgary) that has lost six in a row and will be playing its third road game in four nights. Overall, the Flames have won just one of their L10 games and eight of the nine losses have occurred in regulation.  As written about previously (in Monday's 5-3 win on the Flyers), it should not be a surprise that this team is performing so poorly. They rank next to last in the league in goals scored per game and on the power play, plus their penalty killing unit is also dead last.  I won't make the case that Buffalo is any kind of elite club, but I do like how they've allowed two or fewer goals in seven of the last eight games.

Only the Maple Leafs have fewer home victories than the Sabres, but fortunately for them the Flames happen to have the second fewest number of road victories in the league. Now, Buffalo is off a disappointing 2-1 loss here to Edmonton on Tuesday, which came in overtime. They were outshot there, 41-32, but Robin Lehner was again outstanding in getting his team to OT. Tonight, it's looking more like it will be Chad Johnson, but he too has been strong of late, particularly in a win last Friday at San Jose. Back to the home ice advantage, Buffalo has beaten Calgary here 9 of the last 11 meetings, which is pretty significant. Assuming they can take advantage of the Flames' poor defensive numbers, I see that streak continuing

How bad has the Flames' goaltending been? Well, they've allowed at least five goals in five of their last nine losses. The damage wasn't quite that bad Tuesday, but nevertheless it was a 2-1 loss in Boston anyway. Allowing that few goals and still losing has to be frustrating. Likely starter Jonas Hiller has an .866 save percentage his L4 starts. The team is also 6-11 SU after scoring one or zero goals its previous game. I think this play ultimately boils down to the fact it's a very cheap price to go against the league's second worst road team.  That says value to me.  10* Buffalo

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):  Here's a real rarity. Edmonton has won B2B games. Such an occurrence hadn't happened since the club's first two games in February, so we're talking basically one month's time. They only did it twice in January as well and at no time in the year 2016 have they won three in a row. In fact, you have to go all the way back to the start of December (when they won a season-high six in a row) to find a win streak longer than the one they're currently on.  Only one other time previously, all the way back in mid-October, had they won at least three straight. So, in my opinion, that makes the Oilers excellent "fade material" tonight as they visit Philadelphia, who happens to be on a three-game win streak itself.

Unlike the Oilers, the Flyers still find themselves fighting for a playoff berth. They are only three points back of Pittsburgh for the second of two Wild Cards after beating Minnesota, Arizona and Calgary all here at home. The favorable stretch of games continues here with a visit from the worst road team in the league (and on Saturday, they'll get last place Columbus here).  So, in no way, should Philly be throwing in the towel on the season. They certainly have not been lacking for offense of late as they've averaged 3.7 goals per game over their last seven and totaled 12 during this three-game win streak of theirs. Defensively, they're giving up just an average of just 26.2 shots the last five games, which obviously makes life easier on their goaltenders.

Consider that before winning their last two games, Edmonton had dropped seven in a row and 10 of 11.  Now over the last 13, they've still managed to score more than three goals only one time, a 5-2 win over Toronto back on Feb 11th.  Not only are they 26th in the league in goals scored, but they are 26th in goals allowed as well.  Goaltender Cam Talbot has really come on of late, but his overall save percentage for the year says that "regression is in the cards."  Interestingly, the team's record w/o Connor McDavid was actually better than with him and this is the team he got injured against back in November, so perhaps he'll be a little tentative tonight. For the record, the Oilers have dropped 25 of 33 road games this season.  8* Philadelphia

10* Chicago (8:05 ET): I was surprised to find Detroit ranking higher than Chicgao in both Corsi and Fenwick given where the Blackhawks are in the standings, but also due to the fact the Red Wings have actually been outscored this season.  Though off three consecutive victories, the Wings find themselves in fourth in the Atlantic, which is where they belong. This team is not a serious threat in the East, at least in my estimation, and their status as a "non-contender" will be exposed here by the reigning Stanley Cup Champs, who certainly have not forgotten getting swept LY by their old division rivals. The 'Hawks have won 17 of their last 25 overall, including an impressive win over Washington (#1 team in the league) on Sunday. Take them here.

Coming off a non-conference game, the Blackhawks are a ridiculous 21-4 this season. Yes, they are a more dangerous team at home, but other than LA or San Jose, who isn't? It was a 5-3 win at the Rangers not that long ago and the team's last "road" game should essentially be disregarded as it was an outdoor affair (at Minnesota). Tonight marks the front end of a home and home (well, Chicago has to play Boston in between) with the Wings and spirits should be high given the history between the two clubs. Beating Washington despite only 23 shots on goal is really impressive when you think about it and at the other end of the ice, I'll continue to "hang my hat" on Corey Crawford, whose 33 wins and .928 save percentage should speak for itself.

Detroit won at Dallas on Leap Day, which is pretty impressive, but then again the Stars seem to be trending in the wrong direction right now. The Wings themselves were going "nowhere fast" as they'd lost four in a row before a 2-1 win over lowly Columbus last week. That started a three-game win streak (also won at Colorado 5-3 Saturday), but two of the wins (Columbus, Dallas) both came beyond regulation when they were outshot for the game. Giving up 41 shots to the Stars, who are admittedly a powerful offensive team, is troubling nonetheless and given my lack of faith in the Wings, it only makes sense to fade them here. Goalie Petr Mrazek has managed to go 3-1-1 despite a 3.24 GAA over that time frame, so he's due to lose. 10* Chicago

8* Nashville (8:05 ET): All year, I've been saying how tough the Central Division is and how it is likely to send five teams (both Wild Cards) to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  Two teams certainly in the mix are Dallas and Nashville.  The Stars currently find themselves in far better position as they are tied w/ Chicago for first place at 83 points. Nashville is in fourth, ten points back, but lately has been the much hotter team as they've won four straight, the last three of which have all come in regulation. Meanwhile, Dallas has dropped three in a row and all of those came on home ice. It certainly seems like an appropriate time to "strike while the iron is hot" as these two division rivals appear to be trending in opposite directions.  Take the Predators.

One thing that speaks well to the season the Preds are having is their ranking in both Corsi & Fenwick (7th/2nd), which tells you that they do a really good job of controlling the puck.  I find it pretty amazing that this club finds itself one game below .500, though taking 11 losses beyond regulation has a lot to do with that. Division games have been a real problem (8-11-3) even though they outshoot their opponents on average, 32.1 to 27.2.  That says they're "due" and wouldn't you know, they just beat both Chicago and St. Louis the L2 games. Pekka Rinne has been incredible between the pipes, turning in a .968 save percentage his L4 starts including a 5-0 shutout of the Blues on Saturday. The Preds have not been beaten in regulation in their last nine games!

Nashville is only 17th in the league in goals per game, but here they face a Dallas team that has allowed a stunning 28 goals the last six games and is just 1-4-1 its last seven games overall. Only one of those 28 goals allowed didn't come in regulation and it was the game winner for Detroit last night. We know that the Stars' weakness is between the pipes (23rd in goals allowed) and considering the way goalie Kari Lehtonen has been playing of late (.875 save percentage, 3.82 GAA L4 starts), Nashville's Filip Forsberg may very well continue his torrid pace (two hat tricks in L3 games). The Stars have a losing record this season when playing w/o rest and the Preds have been off for two days. Given recent form on both sides, it's a massive edge to the latter.  8* Nashville

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):  Calgary blew a golden opportunity to pick up two points on Saturday vs. Ottawa as a 4-2 lead entering the third period evaporated due to giving up a natural hat trick to Mike Zibenejad in the span of 2:38!  The Sens would go to to add another goal in the final minute giving the Flames a 6-4 loss despite a 38-26 edge in shots. In the interest of full disclosure, I was on Calgary there despite being well aware of their many faults (30th in goals allowed/29th on power play/30th in penalty killing). I still thought it was a great spot to take them, however, as Ottawa had been overachieving & the Flames aren't all that bad on home ice. But they (Calgary) will rue letting that one slip away as now they're out East for four straight games and have lost 20 of 29 road games this year. Take the Flyers.

This is Philly's third straight home game and they have won the last two, both against Western Conference clubs.  Somehow, this team put together by Ron Hextall (former goalie here), remains in playoff contention as they enter the day trailing the division rival Penguins by only three points for the final Wild Card in the Eastern Conference.  Given a recent surge in scoring, they should fare just fine here against a Flames team that as I already mentioned allows the most goals per game in the league.  Meanwhile, the Flyers' own goaltending situation seems solid now w/ the emergence of Michael Neuvirth, who has gone 8-2-2 w/ a 1.94 goals against average in 12 home starts this season. Also, Steve Mason has a 2.82 GAA his L5 starts. Regardless of who is between the pipes tonight, they will have the edge over their Calgary counterpart.

Only rival Edmonton has fewer points on the road this season than the Flames, so I'd probably go ahead and disregard the fact they have won 8 of their last 11 visits here to the City of Brotherly Love. In fact, if anything, that signals to me that they are due to fall here. Overall, Calgary has lost seven of eight including four straight. They have allowed four or more goals in five of those losses.  When it comes to special teams, no team in the league is worse and it's not even close. Even worse for the Flames is that they average only 2.3 goals per game on the road. 8* Philadelphia

8* San Jose (7:05 ET): The Sharks' road prowess is well-noted as they have won 21 of 33 games away from "The Tank." That being said, they did lose their last time out on the road, 4-3 at Colorado, and followed that up by losing 3-1 at home to lowly Buffalo. So, clearly, this is a team in need of a big win right now and I see them getting the two points tonight at the expense of Vancouver. The Canucks have won two straight, scoring five goals both times, but prior to that had dropped four in a row.  Despite being division rivals, these two curiously haven't actually met this season.  But the road team won all five matchups last year and I see that trend continuing here.  Take San Jose.

Vancouver hasn't fared particularly well in division games, at least when it comes to goal scoring. They're averaging just 1.9 goals per game against the rest of the Pacific.  With the Sharks in third place and the Canucks in fourth, you might think that these teams are relatively close statistically, but think again. San Jose has a 10-point cushion, which is huge because the top three in every division are guaranteed a playoff berth, and the goal differential is even more severe. San Jose has outscored its opponents by 14 goals for the year while Vancouver is -24.  The Sharks are 4th in the league in goals per game and third on the power play. The Canucks are 26th in goals per game. 

I said earlier that these teams have yet to meet this season. That will change in a hurry as they play three times over the next seven days.  Including playoffs, San Jose has won seven straight times here in British Columbia.  Despite a recent surge offensively, Vancouver is likely to be in "sell mode" come next week's trade deadline and that could have an effect on the players, who realize they don't have the backing of the front office.  The Sharks simply didn't get enough shots on goal Friday vs. the Sabres, but assuming that number goes up here and they rectify recent penalty killing woes, they'll be in good shape here. Note that the Canucks have allowed 30 or more shots in nine consecutive games. They are also 3-7 off a win by two or more goals.  8* San Jose

10* Calgary (10:05 ET):  When you want to talk about overachieving teams in the league this year, I think Ottawa belongs on that list.  I say that knowing full well that the Senators are not even currently in a position where they'd make the playoffs (four points off the pace), but even that's a minor miracle due to their terrible possession numbers (27th in Corsi/29th in Fenwick). They average only 28.2 shots per game (27th) and have been even below that average recently.  At the same time, they also allow the most shot attempts per game (33.1) in the league and have been above that average recently.  This is a great opportunity for the Flames, losers of six of their last seven, to pick up a rare two points.  

Given those numbers I just went through for Ottawa, you might reasonably expect that they've struggled to win games. However, the opposite has actually been the case.  They are 4-1 L5, outscoring their opponents by a full goal per game!  That seems extraordinarily fortunate given the stats. They did lose Thursday in Vancouver, however (5-3), and this marks their third game in five nights out here in Western Canada. The team is just 12-19 in road games overall this season and has lost each of the last two years here in Calgary (also lost to them 2-1 at home earlier this season).  They haven't outshot a single opponent in six games. Defense continues to be a concern as the team ranks 28th in goals allowed and 29th on the penalty kill. 

Calgary has had to take on some difficult opponents of late, so the poor record should not be that big of a shocker.  They are off B2B 2-1 losses to the Kings and Islanders, the latter coming via overtime.  That was a tough one as the Flames led 1-0 heading into the third period and it appeared as if things were headed to a shootout.  Believe it or not, but the Flames are pretty solid here at home (17-13-1) and when on a three-game losing streak this season, they are 5-2.  With Ottawa allowing a lot of shots and goals, plus being terrible on the penalty kill, this is a rare ideal matchup for Calgary, who actually only allows 27.5 shots per game here at home. 10* Calgary

8* Chicago (8:05 ET):  There's no other way to view the Blackhawks at home & at this price than as a bargain.  The Stanley Cup Champs, currently embroiled in a first place battle w/ Dallas in the Central, are 22-7-2 at the "Madhouse on Madison" this season while outscoring their opponents by a very impressive margin of 1.3 goals per game. The key has been superb goaltending. Corey Crawford and Scott Darling have combined to post a remarkable .943 save percentage here at home, allowing an average of just 1.7 goals per contest.  It is likely to be Crawford between the pipes tonight.  While he's off a bad game (unique circumstances), I look for a bounce back performance here. Furthermore, Nashville has lost seven of its last nine visits to the Windy City and is a losing proposition on the road overall this season.

The unique circumstance I just referenced for Crawford and the Blackhawks was an outdoor game in Minnesota on Sunday, which resulted in an ugly 6-1 loss. Because it was an outdoor game, I'd essentially disregard the result altogether. Of course, Chicago doesn't actually have that luxury and is now only two points clear of hard-charging St. Louis. But that also has a lot to do with the fact the 'Hawks have played only one time in the last eight days. They certainly should be "rested and ready" for tonight while their opponents happen to have taken the ice twice since Chicago last played.  This is the Preds' third road game in four nights, which tends to be a difficult situation for most teams. The 'Hawks beat them twice last month, by the way.

Nashville, who has won the first two games of this trip, could be missing a key defender for this matchup. That would be Shea Weber, currently listed as questionable w/ the dreaded "lower body injury."   With Weber, they've lost three times in four chances to Chicago this year, including both road games.  Though coming off a 3-2 win in Toronto the other night, all three goals came from one player (Filip Forsberg) and besides that was the Leafs.  While Crawford is typically excellent here at home, the same cannot be said for Nashville netminder Pekka Rinne on the road where his save percentage is just .897.  Further illustrating the Blackhawks ability to bounce back, their record is 10-4 after giving up 4+ goals the last game.  8* Chicago

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Despite having won four in a row, the Wild still find themselves in sixth place in the Central and that would mean no playoffs. But they are just three points out of fourth and two from fifth. Something else they have going for them is a better goal differential than all but two teams in the division, those obviously being Dallas and Chicago.  The Islanders are certainly an opponent to be respected, but they actually only have five more points than Minnesota. This also isn't a particularly great spot for the Isles as it comes near the start of a lengthy trip, after three days off (beat New Jersey 1-0 on Friday) and with three games in Western Canada looming. Minnesota actually just swept such a trip, totaling 15 goals in the process, then returned home and scored six more in a win over Chicago on Sunday. This team is simply too hot right now to pass up at this price.

That 6-1 win over the Blackhawks was a special one for the Wild, not just because it was against the top team in their division, but also because it took place outdoors at nearby TCF Bank Stadium.  Perhaps its just coincidental, but the team's recent surge began after a long called for coaching change. John Torchetti replaced the much maligned Mike Yeo and since then there's been no looking back as the Wild have scored five or more goals in every game under their interim HC after doing so only five times in 55 games under Yeo.  Obviously, results from outdoor games need to be taken w/ a "grain of salt" considering the unusual conditions, but there was nothing fluky about the way Minnesota dominated its three opponents from Western Canada on that trip. 

There's a little bit of revenge in play here as the Islanders beat the Wild 5-3 in Brooklyn right after the All-Star Break.  That game saw a ton of shots on both sides with Minnesota holding a 43-38 edge.  Though New York has also been playing well of late (5-1-1 L7), it should be stated that they have yet to win a single time this season when coming off a shutout victory in their previous game. They are 0-3 in that situation and remember they beat the Devils 1-0 last Friday. They've also been outshot in three of the last four games (just 46 shots L2 games).  10* Minnesota

9* Dallas (8:05 ET):  The Stars have lost three straight and find themselves one point back of Chicago in the very tough Central Division. The Blackhawks don't play tonight, so when we glance at the standings tomorrow morning, there's a good chance that Dallas will be back on top. All they have to do is beat last place Winnipeg.  The Jets have also lost three straight (as well as four of their last five), all on the road. They'll need more than just a return home, however, as they've been a losing proposition this season in Manitoba including a 5-3 loss to Dallas just three weeks ago. The Stars are a perfect 3-0 this season vs. the Jets, outscoring them 13-7.  Goalie Kari Lehtonen has really had Winnipeg's number throughout out his career.

Things aren't going well for Winnipeg right now at either end of the ice.  They've been held to two goals or less five times in the last six games. Saturday's 3-1 loss at Florida (I had the Panthers!) did see a recent trend of lots of shots on goal continue, but they simply can't seem to solve opposing goaltenders. In their last 10 home games, eight have been losses and the Jets have scored just 14 times. Of course, goaltending has been a concern as well. Four times since the All-Star Break they've given up at least five goals and three of those have come here at home. It looks like Ondrej Pavalec will be the one starting in goal tonight and over his L4 starts he has a save percentage of just .899. He's been even worse in division contests (.857).

Meanwhile, it would be difficult to imagine things getting any worse for Dallas between the pipes as they've given up a total of 13 goals their last two games. That can't happen, especially since one of those games was versus lowly Arizona and the other a home game (vs. Boston).  As mentioned previously, Kari Lehtonen has owned the Jets through the years, going 7-1-1 w/ a 1.95 goals against average, his lowest vs. any team in his career. If for some reason Lehtonen doesn't go here, then it will be Antti Niemi, who has a winning record this year as well. Niemi started three weeks ago in Winnipeg and stopped 24 shots. Whomever is in goal likely won't face the Jets top goal scorer, Bryan Little, who is day to day w/ an upper body injury. 9* Dallas

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): Last Thursday, the Blues cashed for me as my Game of the Week (over the Kings) and I'll come back with them again here after they won again (6-4 over Arizona) on Saturday. On a five-game win streak, this club has clearly hit its stride as they currently occupy the all-time important third place position in the Central and are well clear of the fourth place team.  In fact, they're now only two points back of first place Chicago and second place Dallas happens to be in a mini-slump.  With more points (79) than all but three teams in the league, St. Louis is a "third place team" in name only.  Their opponents here also happen to be a third place team, but San Jose has just 67 points and will be playing its fourth consecutive road game.

Seeing the Sharks lose on Friday, 5-2 to Carolina, was not really a surprise to me. I say that not just because it was the team's second road game in two nights (and third in four nights), but also I see this impressive road record of theirs due to regress.  Only Washington has more road wins this year than does San Jose (20). In the case of the Capitals, they happen to also be the best team in the league right now.  The Sharks are nowhere near that distinction. It's been an odd season for them as they've struggled at home, but excelled on the road. I wouldn't be surprised to see that dichotomy start to "level out" moving forward.  Interestingly, they have been outshot in each of the last two games. They got lucky w/ an OT win at Florida on Friday as they finished that game w/ only 18 shots. Carolina outshot them 37-24 on Saturday. 

Now, if you're a Blues fan, you're likely very concerned with the loss of forward Alexander Steen for the next four weeks. The team's #2 scorer, Steen will clearly be missed.  But, this is a team game and considering the offense still scored six times its last time on the ice, I think they'll be just fine.  Just as they lose Steen, St. Louis is getting a key return back between the pipes as Jake Allen was activated on Sunday. Yes, Brian Elliott has been incredible during Allen's absence, but his number of consecutive starts had begun to be a concern and he did allow four goals to Arizona last time out.  Allen has a .924 save percentage this year & the Blues are 9-3 this season after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. 10* St. Louis

10* Nashville (8:05 ET):  The last two times that the Predators have won, it has been in shutout fashion. That includes Thursday's 2-0 win over Boston where I played (and won with) the Under. Therefore, with the scuffling Kings coming to town tonight, this looks like a tailor-made matchup for the home team.  Los Angeles has lost three straight and in the process scored only two goals. Also on Thursday, I cashed my Game of the Week on St. Louis at their expense. The Kings have actually outshot each of their last three opponents, but their usual excellence at controlling the puck will be put to the test here by a Preds club that similarly ranks quite high in both Corsi and Fenwick. The possibility of not having leading scorer Anze Kopitar does the road team no favors in this one either.

As I talked about in my writeup for the Under in Thursday's game, Nashville does a tremendous job at limiting the number of shots by its opponent. They allow the fewest number of shots per game in the league in fact, at 26.5. That's the last thing that the Kings want to hear right now given the current scoring woes. Not only might Kopitar miss this game, but they are of course still without Marian Gaborik as well. The Kings had lost five in a row to the Predators, three of those here in Nashville, before a win all the way back on Halloween Night (at home). They are just 4-7 SU this season after scoring 1 or 0 goals the previous game.  Also concerning is that Jonathan Quick has had some bad performances recently. Fatigue could be setting in with this being the team's seventh consecutive game on the road.

  Maybe the Kings are due to breakthrough offensively sometime soon, but it will be challenging here facing either Carter Hutton (.964 save percentage L4 starts) or Pekka Rinne (29 save shutout Thursday).  For many years, Nashville had been great at Bridgestone Arena, but somewhat surprisingly Thursday marked just their second win here in the last seven tries.  I think that the turnaround they started against Boston is likely to continue tonight.  10* Nashville

8* Florida (7:05 ET): Despite not being in the best form right now (2-3-2 L7), the Panthers continue to comfortably lead the Atlantic with 73 points. This will be their fifth consecutive home game and surprisingly they've dropped three of the previous four. I use the term "surprisingly" because prior to that they stood at 18-7-3 SU for the season here in Miami.  Tonight, I have them bouncing back against a Winnipeg club that is mired in last place and giving up far too many goals of late. The Jets have dropped five of their eight games since the All-Star Break and in four of the losses, they allowed five goals or more. After rallying back (from a three-goal disadvantage) in the third period Thursday at Tampa Bay, only to lose in a shootout, it will be difficult for them to rebound here.

Rebound is what Florida's offense needs to do as they've scored only 14 non-shootout goals in that 2-3-2 stretch and half of those came in a blowout win over the Sabres.  They have averaged just 23.3 shots over the last three games while the power play is 0 for its last 17. Injuries have been a concern, but recall just how many goals the Jets have been giving up late. This has all the makings of a "get well" spot to me for the Panthers.  Roberto Luongo has struggled a bit of late, so him likely getting the nod between the pipes (rather than Al Montoya) isn't the best news, but consider Luongo still has a .924 save percentage and has played a big part in the team ranking 4th in goals allowed this season. Another positive is they just held to San Jose to only 18 shots (including OT!) Thursday.

Goaltending has not been a strong suit for Winnipeg.  They are 25th in the league in goals allowed and tonight's likely starter Ondrej Pavalec has a .899 save percentage his L4 starts after stopping only 21 of 26 shots vs. the Lightning Thursday.  While the 41 shots in Tampa Bay were nice, note two of Winnipeg's goals came via the power play, which is highly irregular for them. They rank just 27th in the league (16.5 percent) with the man advantage, not to mention the team's penalty killing unit also ranks 27th. Facing a team with a winning record, the Jets are just 9-15 SU this year. The Panthers are 15-9 SU against losing teams. 8* Florida

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): There is no denying that the Central is the toughest division in the sport. The Blues may be in third place, but their 75 points are the fourth most in the entire league right now w/ league-leading Washington (86) the only non-division team w/ more.  Since the All-Star Break, the Blues have won five of seven, including three straight.  The last was a key win over division rival Dallas and marked the fourth time since the Break that they allowed 1 goal or fewer in a victory. All the credit has to go to goaltender Brian Elliott, who has now had to make 15 consecutive starts in the wake of an injury to fellow netminder Jake Allen. This is no temporary trend, however. Elliott has a .932 save percentage this season & the Blues are third in goals allowed (also #1 on the penalty kill). I have them winning again here.

The Kings, meanwhile, come in trending in a different direction. The Pacific Division leaders (w/ just 69 points) have dropped consecutive games for just the second time since mid-December and in the process have scored only one goal.  Going against the red-hot Elliott, it's difficult to see them breaking through here. The team came out the Break strong, most notably w/ a 9-goal effort in Boston on Feb 9th. But perhaps they used up all their goal scoring there (just seven goals in last four games).  Concerning is the recent play of Jonathan Quick between the pipes and that's something you almost never hear. He's allowed multiple goals in regulation his L11 starts and that includes giving up three or more six different times! 

The Blues' stinginess on their own end of the ice was on full display against the top scoring team in the league (Dallas) on Tuesday where they permitted only 18 shots on goal. Elliott stopped all but one and now has a 1.67 goals against average during his stretch of 15 consecutive starts. No team in the West is giving up fewer goals per game and again that's due in large part to a penalty kill which is 31 for its last 32.  I'd like to see more shots from the Blues moving forward, but they were able to win in LA last month despite putting the puck on the net only 16 times. The home team has dropped both meetings this year between these two, something I expect to change here. 10* St. Louis

10* Colorado (8:05 ET): It's getting to be a little bit of desperation time for the teams that once called and still call the province of Quebec home. The Avalanche (former Nordiques) currently occupy the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They are fifth in the Central, a division that likely sends both Wild Cards. Right now, it's a four point lead for the Avs over the Wild for that last spot. Meanwhile, Montreal's status is far more precarious as the Canadiens are six points off the playoff pace in the Eastern Conference, a stunning development for a team that started the season in such grand fashion (9-0). Things just haven't been the same since goaltender Carey Price was lost to injury and with his return date seemingly nowhere in sight, I say it's still time to fade the Habs, at least here.

The Avs didn't have to face Price in the first meeting w/ the Habs this season and the result ended up being 6-1 in their favor, despite a 40-24 shot deficit.  So you can see the kind of dropoff that is typical between the pipes for Montreal when Price is not in there. Lately, things have grown even more dire. They are allowing a ghastly 4.5 goals per game during a 1-6-1 road stretch and the last two results have been downright embarrassing as they were outscored 12-6 in losses to bottom feeders Buffalo & Arizona.  That puts the Canadiens' record at 8-22-1 since December 3rd, worst in the league during that time. They'll likely turn back to Mike Condon tonight despite his poor .868 save percentage his L4 outings. That's just the current state of things in Montreal. The team is 5-10 SU after allowing 4+ goals in its previous game.

Meanwhile, Colorado happens to be off an embarrassing loss to Buffalo themselves (4-1) on Sunday.  It was their fifth loss in the last seven games. But they are 9-4 SU this season after scoring 1 or 0 goals their previous game and I think the goaltending situation here is more secure despite Semon Varlamov getting pulled against the Sabres. Varlamov still has a respectable .916 save percentage his L4 starts and had stopped 69 of 74 shots the two previous games. I also expect the Avs' power play (1 for its last 23 at home) to break out of its slump here facing a Montreal PK unit which gave up a pair of goals Monday vs. the 'Yotes.  10* Colorado

10* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): It was a tough 2-1 loss for the Lightning right here at home on Saturday as they fell to the Blues 2-1 despite a rather significant 38-21 edge in shots.  The loss leaves them in fourth in the Atlantic, tied w/ Pittsburgh for the final Wild Card in the Eastern Conference at 64 points.  The team has been playing much better of late (12-5 L17), but cannot afford another slip up due to the depth in the conference this year. Meanwhile, San Jose makes the long trip fresh off a 4-1 win over bottom-feeder Arizona on Saturday. However, the thirdplace team in the Pacific has alternated losses and wins over its last eight games, so you know what that means for tonight. I think the pattern holds true.

The usually reliable Ben Bishop has certainly been a "little off" for the Lightning of late w/ an .889 save percentage his L4 starts. He stopped only 19 of 21 shots on Saturday and Lightning opponents now have an usually high 12.4 shooting percentage the L5 games. It's not like TB is giving up a ton of shots either; they're actually outshooting foes by nearly six shots per game over that timeframe. I expect Bishop to start to regain past form, sooner rather than later.  He has a .925 save percentage at home this season and .932 save percentage against non-conference competition.  Consider that it took a controversial decision after a video review for the Lightning to go down in their last game. They remain 18-9-2 on home ice for the year.

The Sharks have actually been playing well of late, yet they dropped a spot in the standings due to division rival Anaheim being even hotter. What's interesting about this team is that they are below .500 at home, yet a league-best 18-8-2 on the road.  I see that unusual discrepancy starting to rectify itself moving forward.  The Sharks are actually being outshot on the road this season, so there's been some good fortune here.  Martin Jones has been the better of their two goaltenders recently, but did allow five goals at Nashville back on February 6th. He figures to be under siege a little more here after San Jose allowed just 45 shots total the last two games against bottom feeders Calgary and Arizona. The Sharks are just 7-11 after scoring 4+ goals in their last game. 10* Tampa Bay

9* Anaheim (4:05 ET): Maybe an early start time doesn't help the Ducks here, but the opponent sure will. The opponent in question here would be Calgary, who just got beat by Arizona Friday night and probably has the worst overall special teams in the league (29th on power play, 29th in penalty killing). Over the last three seasons, Anaheim is a perfect 8-0 SU at home vs. the Flames, but just 4-4 on the road. That being said, they did shut them out here (1-0) right before the New Year and are 2 for 2 against them this season. After a terrible start to the season, the Ducks seem to have gotten back on track as they now have somewhat of a firm hold on third place in the Pacific due to going 8-1-1 their L10 games. I'm on them here.

Calgary's chances of scoring on the power play this afternoon seem rather remote considering that Anaheim is tops in the league in penalty killing this year at 88.3 percent. Now, as we all know, scoring (or rather lack of it) had been the reason for the Ducks getting off to such a slow start this year. But over the L5 games they've scored 3.4 goals per game on an average of 35.2 shots. Overall, the team is 15-4-2 its last 21 games. There is a bit of a concern in goal here as John Gibson is dealing w/ an upper body injury and may have to sit out tonight.  But then again, Frederik Andersen is 7-0-1 his L8 starts (1.83 GAA), so I'd say there's really nothing to worry about. Going back to December 27th, the Ducks have outshot their opponents in 10 straight contests.

Calgary, meanwhile, has been outshot in each of its last four games, often by a wide margin. Their aforementioned penalty kill has just been terrible the L2 games, going 10 for 16 (that's a lot of penalties to be taking). The fact they've been able to average 3.2 goals per game their last five is a bit fluky considering the average number of shot attempts for them over that same time is only 26.2. Like the Ducks, they too have an issue in goal, that being an injury to Kari Ramo, which leaves Jonas Hiller and he has a pretty woeful .889 save percentage here at home this season. Hiller was the one between the pipes in Friday's 4-1 loss at Arizona.  Considering the Ducks just won in Chicago, this would appear to be a rather cheap price. 9* Anaheim

9* Tampa Bay (6:00 ET): Both of these teams won Friday. For Tampa Bay, getting the two points had to be considered somewhat of a miracle seeing as they were down a goal with less than thirty seconds to go in regulation. I, for one, was ecstatic to see Steven Stamkos score on his seventh shot of the game as I had the Over (5.0) and that goal ensured I would be a winner, regardless of which team scored in OT. As for St. Louis, they had far less difficulty in beating Florida 5-3 as they've now alternated wins and losses since the All-Star Break. Unfortunately, that pattern has the Blues losing here and I expect them to "follow suit." This season has seen them go just 5-8 SU when off a win by two or more goals.

The Blues did take this season's first meeting, 2-0, but that came all the way back in late October.  Much has changed since then and for Tampa Bay, they've gone from being a .500-type team to 10 games over.  They've won 12 of 16 and that's with goalie Ben Bishop being a little shakier than normal recently.  His save percentage over his L4 starts is just .902. But for the season, it's .923 (a little higher at home) and I expect him to begin reverting back to normal form starting tonight. Home ice advantage matters here as the Lightning have won nine straight at Amalie Arena. A win tonight would tie a franchise record for most consecutive home victories.

St. Louis has been a little lucky with its goaltending of late as Brian Elliott (13 straight starts) has had to shoulder the load and has a .941 save percentage his last five starts. He's allowed an average of just 1.8 goals per game on an average of 30.8 shots during that time.  Since the Break, the Blues have averaged only 24.8 shots per game themselves, which is certainly NOT a winning formula.  Keep in mind that it was Jake Allen that posted the shutout in the previous matchup vs. Tampa Bay.  They also have not won three consecutive road games (which they are going for here) since November. The Blues rank surprisingly low in both Corsi (19th) and Fenwick (18th), indicating that they don't possess the puck nearly enough. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is Top 9 in both categories. 9* Tampa Bay

10* Edmonton (10:05 ET): The Oilers treated me well Thursday (beat Toronto 5-2), so I'll go right ahead and come back with them again here vs. Winnipeg. Interestingly enough, I also cashed in the Jets most recent game, albeit it was the Over as they lost 6-2 at home to Boston.  But that result was all too typical of what we've been seeing from Winnipeg of late, that being giving up a lot of goals.  It was the third time in their last five games that they allowed at least five, so w/ Edmonton having posted five of their own in each of their two home games since the All-Star Break, Connor McDavid and company seem like a "safe bet" here. The Oilers have in fact been quite respectable on home ice this season.

The only other time these teams played this year was here in Alberta, back on December 21st, and it was the Oilers prevailing 3-1 in spite of a 45-21 deficit in shots on goal.  The Jets have won both of their road games since the Break, so something will have to give here. I suspect it will be Winnipeg's road run that is the less sustainable as they needed a shootout to win one of those and it's an actual five straight road games w/ at least a point for them. None of the team's options in goal are particularly attractive and tonight it looks to be Ondrej Pavalec, who has an .895 save percentage on the road this season. This is a pretty cheap price to get to go against a last place team on the road.

McDavid has been as good as advertised for the Oilers and he's off a game where he had five points.  It's been entirely "feast or famine" for Edmonton since the Break as they've outscored opponents 17-5 in their three wins and been outscored 15-3 in the three losses, all of which came on the road.  I find it hard to believe that Winnipeg will be putting 45 shots on goal here like they did in that December meeting. That should make life easier for Oilers' netminder Cam Talbot, who had to make 44 saves back then. He stopped 34 more shots Thursday in a much needed breakout performance. Here at home, Talbot does have a strong .923 save percentage.  The Oilers are better than you think on home ice and w/ McDavid back in the fold, are the play here. 10* Edmonton

9* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET):  The race for the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference is going to be insane. All but really three teams (Buffalo, Toronto, Columbus) are still in it as only five points separate six clubs competing for the two Wild Cards.  We have two of those six here. Pittsburgh has been hot recently, that was until they were a shut out (3-0) by the Rangers Wednesday night. They've still won 7 of 10, however, and that has them in fourth in the Metro (tied for final Wild Card). That's better than Carolina, who has only split its L10 games after dropping their last. It was a 2-1 loss at Montreal all the way back on Sunday, but don't look for this long layoff to help as the 'Canes are just 7-15 when playing w/ three or more days of rest.  I'm backing the road team here.

This is the fourth meeting of the season between these division rivals. The Hurricanes took the first two, both by one goal and one in overtime, before the Pens struck back w/ a 5-0 shutout at the Igloo last month.  Carolina has had the edge in shots in all three games, but as we know goaltending has been a concern for this team all year. Their collective save percentage is just above .900, which is fifth worst in the league.  As I've gone through previously, the 'Canes have solid possession numbers and rank 2nd in Corsi/3rd in Fenwick for the year. But lately, they have given up plenty of shots (31.0 per game L5), yet have gotten better than expected play between the pipes. Pittsburgh is an offense that they will likely be unable to keep in check.

The Penguins had averaged an impressive 4.14 goals per game during a 6-1 stretch, twice scoring six times in a game. But they ran into Henrik Lundqvist Wednesday and he stopped all 34 the Pens put on net. Despite the bad result on the scoreboard, it was actually a good edge in shots for the Pens (34-22) in that game. It's been 30 or more shots in 11 straight games for Pittsburgh.  Marc-Andre Fleury has really been outstanding in goal for them as well, at least in division contests where his save percentage is .932. Neither team has been strong on the power play, so this one comes down to 5 on 5 and there the Pens have the edge.  9* Pittsburgh

8* Edmonton (9:05 ET):  It's a matchup of two of the league's worst teams Thursday night and I'll be siding with the one that's at home. After getting a four-game trip out East off to a positive start (7-2 win over Ottawa), the Oilers proceeded to drop the next three while getting outscored 15-3.  The nadir of the trip clearly was Sunday's 8-1 loss to the Islanders. But they won't be facing the Isles here, instead it's the Maple Leafs, who have their own set of problems. Namely, giving up 10 goals in B2B losses, plus overall Toronto has dropped six of its last eight games. Interestingly, the loser here is guaranteed to go into the weekend w/ the fewest number of points in the entire league. So there should be at least some motivation and in their return home, I like Edmonton.

The Oilers are just terrible on the road. They have a league-low seven wins (in 30 games), but on home ice things aren't so bad. In fact, they have a winning record (14-10-1) and won here 5-1 over Columbus (another last place team) right after the All-Star Break, the last time they got to play at Rexall Place.  That was followed up by the seven-goal outburst at Ottawa and with Connor McDavid back in the fold, it appeared as if Edmonton might be set to take off.  But that road trip obviously did not end well, particularly when they finished w/ only 20 shots on goal vs. New Jersey on Tuesday.  However, it should be noted that both goals scored by the Devils in that one came via the power play and that's something that can easily be corrected. Toronto's power play is not to be feared as it ranks 29th in the league at 15.4 percent.

The Leafs just made a big trade (w/ Ottawa), but the result was a familiar one Tuesday as they fell 4-3 in Calgary.  The bad news is that the team is 6-12 this season after allowing 4+ goals in their previous game. They did have a big edge in shots (36-22) over the Flames, but at the end of the day it didn't matter as opposing goaltenders have a .936 save percentage against them the L5 games. Toronto's own goaltending situation is less than ideal w/ tonight's likely starter James Reimer having posted an .887 save percentage the L4 games. Also, the Maple Leafs are just 11-18 on the road.  8* Edmonton

8* Detroit (7:05 ET): Admittedly, I'm not sold on the Red Wings over the long-term. They have been able to stay in the "safe zone" (top three) in the Atlantic for much of the season despite an inferior goal differential compared to the competition. Right now, they have scored the same number of goals that they have allowed this season. It was a somewhat ugly start after the All-Star Break w/ losses to two division rivals, Tampa Bay and Florida, but both came on the road. A return home led to a drastic change in results the L2 games as they've beaten the Islanders and Florida (revenge spot!) by a combined score of 8-1.  Tonight, they host an Ottawa team whose four games since the Break have followed a similar pattern, only w/ more disparate results.  I am on the home team in this one.

The Senators first came out of the Break by allowing an astounding 13 goals in losses to Pittsburgh and Edmonton. In particular, a 7-2 loss to the Oilers was really embarrassing. But surprisingly, they quickly turned things around, first w/ a 6-1 win over Toronto and then a 5-1 win over Tampa Bay. But both of those wins came at home.  One thing that's worth noting here is the high number of shots the Sens are allowing. They, in fact, allow the most per game (33.1) in the entire league. Since the Break, they've been outshot in three of the four games, the exception ironically coming against Edmonton.  That obviously speaks to the goaltending and while Craig Anderson has been sharp the last two games, the fact remains that this team ranks 28th in goals allowed this season and is giving up a horrifying average of 3.6 gpg on the road.

Detroit started the season ranking near the bottom in the league in shots per game, but they've seen that number steadily rise to the point where it is no longer a serious issue.  They had 31 in Monday's shutout win over the Panthers and unlike Ottawa there is a reliable option to turn to in goal here, that being Petr Mrazek, who has been unbelievable over his L11 starts w/ a 1.18 goals against average and .955 save percentage. That includes a pair of shutouts in his L5 starts. The Wings have already won twice in Ottawa this season and should have a big edge tonight on home ice. 8* Detroit

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  The Wild are in a bit of a precarious spot entering this critical matchup. We know that it's very likely that the Central will send five teams to the playoffs (both Wild Cards), but currently Minnesota is sixth in the division, three points back of Colorado for that final spot. The Wild had been on solid ground for much of the season, but recently things have fallen apart with them losing 9 of 10 overall including all three games since the All-Star Break. But tonight marks the first time they've been back on home ice since January 25th. With only eight regulation losses, the Wild have been solid at the XCel Center this season and w/ Dallas having given up plenty of goals since the Break, I'm banking on Minnesota breaking through tonight.

These teams have already played four times this season. The Stars, who got off to such a red-hot start to the season, won the first three. But Minnesota did win in Dallas last month, 2-1.  The Stars have generally had the edge in shots in all four meetings (Wild were +1 in a home loss Dec 21st) and over their L5 games overall have really done a great job at outshooting their opponents. But considering the road team has won the last three times these two have played, I think it's time for the proverbial tables to turn. Dallas did just lose 5-1 to Chicago on Saturday, at home, and that makes it 11 goals allowed in three games since the Break. The Stars may be pointing towards a revenge spot, Thursday in Chicago, and thus overlooking this game.  The Wild will not be overlooking anything given the current state of affairs. 

Making it all the more likely that the home team is poised to breakthrough here is that Minnesota has actually lost five in a row at home. Never in franchise history has the team lost six straight home games. They are actually still 9th in goals allowed this season. Though they did lose 4-1 at St. Louis on Saturday, note they did outshoot the Blues 39-24 and had a franchise record 24 in the second period alone. Allowing three power play goals doomed them in that one as did going just 1 for 7 themselves w/ the man advantage. This team is poised to turn things around tonight.  10* Minnesota

10* NY Islanders (7:05 ET):  You probably won't see a more lopsided score all year than what the Isles did to Edmonton Sunday. It was an 8-1 final as they scored on seven of the first 10 shots they took. Considering they'd lost their last two games and have now slipped to fourth in the Metro and eighth overall in the Eastern Conference, that was a much needed result. But it's all about "how you follow it up" and for the Isles, they are fortunate to be playing last place Columbus Tuesday. Now going back to before the All-Star Break, the Blue Jackets have won four of five including B2B wins in Western Canada. But them sustaining this success seems unlikely given that there's been only a single three-game win streak for them all season long. I'm backing the favorite in this one.

Eight times this season, Columbus has managed to post B2B victories. Only once have they won the next time out and made it three straight. That was all the way back in mid-November. Last time in this situation happened to be the first game after the Break when they lost 5-1 at Edmonton.  They've since responded w/ consecutive 2-1 victories over Vancouver and Calgary, but they were actually outshot significantly in both contests (69 to 46). Remember that the Jackets still are tied for the fewest points in the league (47) and have the worst goal differential (-32) thanks to being 30th (i.e. last) in goals allowed. Joonas Korpisalo has been a bit of a revelation between the pipes, but I'm just not sure how long that can last.

The Blue Jackets last six victories have all come at the expense of struggling teams. They've had a lot more difficulty contending w/ the division rival Islanders this year, losing all three matchups by a combined score of 12-4. One thing you have to like about the Isles is that they have become a more physical team as they lead the league in number of hits per game. They also have the second ranked penalty kill. The road has not been all that kind to them this season, but twice they've won here in Columbus.  Goalie Jaroslav Halak has been sharp recently vs. the Jackets, going 5-0-2 w/ a 2.22 goals against average the last seven matchups. 10* NY Islanders

8* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): This is a double revenge spot for the Blueshirts, who have twice lost to the Devils by one goal this season. The more recent loss came in the first game after the All-Star Break, in New Jersey, despite a 33-25 edge in shots on goal. As I've written about several times before, I have major issues with the Devils' long-term sustainability due to their last place ranking in number of shots per game.  You'll recall that I just went against them as recently as Thursday (and was successful in doing so) as they fell to Toronto in a shootout. They actually finished w/ 34 shots in that one (3rd most in any game this season), but were then back down to 24 again in Saturday's 3-2 vs. Washington, which also went to a shootout. The Rangers, meanwhile, have won B2B games. They're hotter and have revenge, so they get the call here.

It's certainly not a surprise to me to see the Devils rank 29th in the league in goals per game. Their average of 24.4 shots per game is three less than the 29th place team in that particular department, which is the same gap that exists between the 29th place team 11th place team in shots. They rank 29th in Corsi and 30th in Fenwick, again not a good sign. What we basically have here is a team that leans far too much on goalie Corey Schneider.  While a hot netminder can absolutely carry a team in the playoffs, doing so over the long haul of the regular season is a bit more problematic. Schnieder is second in the league in starts w/ 44 and I don't know just how much longer he can keep his level of play up this high. Note that New Jersey has given up a game-tying goal late in regulation in each of the L2 games.

A late score in regulation got the Rangers into extra time Saturday vs. the Flyers where they won in a shootout. Offense is not much of a concern here as the team ranks 5th in the league in goals per game. Between the pipes, we know who will be there as former Vezina winner Henrik Lundqvist has a 1.64 goals against average his last six starts against the Devils. While only four points separate these teams in the Metro, goals scored vs. allowed is +20 in New York's favor. They've either outshot or been tied w/ their opponent in eight straight games.  8* NY Rangers