8* Columbus (9:05 ET): The Blue Jackets have arguably been the hottest team in the league of late, at one point amassing 10 consecutive victories. That streak was broken Saturday night by another hot team, St. Louis, but the one loss shouldn't really affect our view of this club going into the playoffs. While they haven't clinched yet, the playoffs are where the Blue Jackets are headed, it's now only a question of where they'll finish and who they'll play. A third or fourth place finish in the Metro seems the most likely scenario, which would match them up w/ either the Capitals or Penguins in the first round. That will be a tough battle (especially w/o home ice advantage), but for now all we need to worry about is them beating a non-playoff team. I think they will tonight.

Though they've been a "tougher out" of late, Edmonton has arguably been this season's biggest disappointment. Fans had visions of a Stanley Cup run this year, but that never materialized as the team started slow and never really recovered. Officially eliminated from playoff contention, the Oilers are simply playing out the string at this juncture. After winning three in a row and seven out of ten, they did lose here at home to Anaheim on Sunday, 5-4. The game did go into overtime, but it was a terribly disappointing loss for the Oilers considering they led 3-1 going into the third period. Though it wasn't the culprit vs. the Ducks, special teams have been just abysmal for the Oilers this season. They rank dead last in the league on the power play (14.5%) and are 29th in penalty killing. The fact they are 27th in goals allowed can be directly attributed to the number of shots allowed per game, which are also among the highest numbers in the league. They allowed 38 vs. Anaheim.

Columbus happens to have the second worst power play in the league (15.3%), but for reasons alluded to above, that won't cost them here. They are also 9th in the league in goals allowed, giving them a huge "leg up" on Edmonton. Sergei Bobrovsky has been in top form of late (.949 save percentage L4 starts) and is expected to be in goal tonight. Over the last two months, he has gone 12-4-1 w/ a 2.01 GAA.  Note Edmonton is just 8-17 SU this year after scoring 4+ goals the previous game. They are also 10-20 SU after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. I know losing Nick Foligno is tough for C-bus, but they'll be able to overcome that loss here. 8* Columbus

8* Vegas (10:05 ET): Here, we have two teams whose respective home ice advantages rate among the very strongest in the entire league. Unfortunately for Colorado though, this game will take place in Sin City where the Golden Knights have set a new standard for all future expansion teams (in any sport) to live up to. That includes a 26-9-2 SU record at home. A somewhat pedestrian March (6-4-2 record) should not tarnish what has been an unbelievable first season of pro hockey in Las Vegas. This team is on the cusp of clinching a playoff berth and should win the Pacific Division.

What Vegas has been able to do in its first year of existence has largely overshadowed what has taken place this season in Colorado, a radical improvement that is among the best I've ever seen year-to-year in any sport. The Avs have nearly doubled LY's point total when they were - without question - the worst team in the entire league. The way things stand right now, they would be a Wild Card team and matchup w/ Vegas in the 1st round of the playoffs (#2 vs. #7 seed). But two teams - Los Angeles and St. Louis - are just one point behind. True to form, the home team has won both previous head to head matchups between these two this season. Colorado just beat Vegas on Saturday, 2-1 in a shootout, making this a legit revenge game for the Golden Knights.

That was the second straight loss in extra time for the Knights (both on the road), who should now be happy to be back home. Their one time hosting Colorado this season came very eary on and resulted in a 7-0 win. The Avs are only 15-16-6 on the road this year. Good news for Vegas is that they are 7-3 SU this season after scoring one goal or less in the previous game. They've allowed only three goals in regulation the last four games. They rank 8th in the league in goals allowed and third in goals scored. At home, their YTD goal differential predictably widens and is the second largest in the league behind Winnipeg. Off B2B closes losses and back home, there's a lot to like about the Pacific Division leaders in this spot. 8* Vegas

8* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): Obviously, there's a lot that still has to "shake out," but we could be looking at a potential first round playoff series here w/ the Penguins and the Flyers. Both have spent the majority of their respective seasons in the top four in the Metro. Pittsburgh currently has a "leg up" for home ice advantage in the first round as their 90 points have them in second place (five back of division leading Washington). But hot on their heels are both Columbus (89 pts) and Philly (88 pts). I believe the Pens to be the better team here, so with them hosting here, I've got no choice but to give them the endorsement in this Sunday afternoon matchup. 

Now Pittsburgh is off a rare home defeat, it coming in overtime at the hands of New Jersey, 4-3, on Friday night. Since a three-game win streak earlier this month (which included a 5-2 win at Philly), the Penguins have alternated wins and losses over the last seven games. If that pattern holds, we know the result that is in store today. Note that the Pens have had little difficulty getting the puck on net recently. They outshot New Jersey, 43-34, their fifth consecutive game w/ at least 37 shots on goal and sixth time in the last seven that they've done so. In addition to the home ice (15-1-1 L17 games at PPG Paints Arena), another edge the Pens have here is their league-best power play (26.0%) going against the Flyers' 27th ranked penalty kill. In three games vs. Flyers this season (all wins), Pittsburgh has gone 4 for 11 w/ the man advantage. 

Philly's offense has been hot of late, scoring four or more goals in four consecutive games (18 goals total!). But this is a team that still only has four wins over its last 12 games. They did beat the Rangers, 4-3 on Thursday, but that was at home. Whereas Pittsburgh excels in scoring (6th overall), particularly on the power play, the Flyers are a decidedly average team that ranks 14th in goals scored and allowed. They have allowed five goals in each of the three losses to Pittsburgh this season. Some teams just have another's number and that is the case here in this division rivalry. 8* Pittsburgh 

10* Los Angeles (10:05 ET): As teams continue to jockey for playoff position in the Western Conference, there's a lot to like about these Kings, nevermind the fact they just walloped Colorado 7-1 on Thursday. Colorado has not been an easy place to win at for visiting teams (Avs are still 15-3-1 their L19 games there), yet the Kings made it look easy and are now 6-0-2 their last eight road games. The offensive explosion was certainly a welcome sight, but note this team is also #2 in the league in goals allowed and has the #1 penalty killing unit. It's a drop in class tonight (in terms of the opposition) and I see LA winning yet again. 

Now Edmonton is also off a big road win, theirs coming by a score of 6-2 over Ottawa. They've now scored 13 goals total the last two games and both were on the road! Impressive as that sounds, let's not forget the Oilers have arguably been this season's biggest disappointment. Coming into the year, their starved fanbase was thinking about a potential Stanley Cup run. The reality of the matter is that they are already eliminated from playoff contention. While they've been playing better recently, they've won three or more straight games only four times all season. Unlike the Kings, the Oilers have lousy special teams as they are 30th on the power play and 31st in penalty killing. So that's at least one massive edge going to the road team here. 

While the Oilers are simply playing out the string, the Kings are trying to lock down a playoff spot. They enter tonight in third place in the Pacific, tied w/ Anaheim. Two other teams (from the Central Division) - Colorado and St. Louis - are each within two points of them, so not even the Wild Card is a sure thing at this point. Thus, this really shapes up as a proverbial "must-win" for the Kings. They've taken two of three from Edmonton this season, scoring five times in both wins, before losing at home 4-3 in January. Note the Oilers are just 7-17 SU this season after scoring 4+ goals their previous game. Meanwhile, LA is 23-12 when facing an opponent that has a losing record. 10* Los Angeles

8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): For most of this season, the Lightning have been considered the best team in the league. That line of thinking is certainly justified by the fact they have the second most points (104) and best goal differential (+59). But Boston, who recently beat them, is now hot on Tampa Bay's heels and even an Atlantic Division title is not guaranteed right now. Tonight, the Lightning have a chance to increase their division lead to six points and possibly tie Nashville (top team in the Western Conference) for most points in the league. Even on the road, it looks to be a very favorable matchup on paper w/ an Islanders team that ultimately won't make the playoffs because they are dead last in the league in goals allowed. 

Since being shutout by Boston on St. Patrick's Day, the Lightning have bounced back w/ a pair of wins over Edmonton and Toronto. Both were at home and they resumed their typical level of scoring w/ a combined seven goals in the two wins. But road play has been a major reason why the Lightning have been "out in front of the pack" for so much of this season. They are 23-11-2 away from home this year and outscoring teams by almost a full goal per game at their own rinks. That's easily the best scoring margin of any team on the road this year and really only Nashville can claim a comparable record. No team can touch the Lightning's average of 3.5 goals per game on the road. They are #1 overall in the league in goals per game and as I said earlier, the Islanders are dead last in goals allowed. In other words, I expect the visitors to score early and often tonight.

While not officially eliminated from contention, the Isles have no realistic path to the playoffs at this point. They are last in the Metro, needing to jump numerous teams, and face a 10-pt deficit w/ only nine games to go. Though they did just beat the Penguins (4-1) here at home Tuesday night, the Isles have done themselves no favors w/ a 2-7-4 stretch dating back to mid-February. I simply cannot see them beating Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay consecutively. We saw what TB can do when they stormed back from a 3-1 deficit against Toronto Tuesday. The Islanders - on average - give up some of the highest shot totals in the league. This is a great matchup for TB as goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 1.73 GAA and .952 save percentage in six career regular season starts vs. NY. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Buffalo (7:05 ET): While roughly two-thirds of the league continues to compete either to get into or strengthen their position for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the respective fate of these two clubs has long been known and has nothing to do w/ the postseason. Buffalo and Arizona, basically all season long, have been the worst teams in their respective conferences. They both come into Wednesday night as two of the four teams in the league officially eliminated from playoff contention. Buffalo has the fewest points (58) and also the worst goal differential (-64), so you can make the case that they are the worst team in the league. But even though Arizona has played better of late (6-3-1 L10), they are only one point in front of the Sabres. The game is in Buffalo and I actually see some value here in this battle of also-rans. 

Tonight is the start of a six-game road trip for the Coyotes, who will travel through the Southeastern U.S. (Carolina, Florida, Tampa Bay) before ending up back West (LA, Vegas). Though they have played better of late, it's difficult for me to envision this trip going well. For the year, the 'Yotes are only 9-17-7 on the road and they're getting outscored by over a full goal per game. The recent stretch of games has seen them play at home quite a bit as their only three road games over the last month came at Edmonton, Vancouver and Colorado. They lost two of those, only beating the Canucks, who not coincidentally are tied w/ them for last in the Pacific Division right now. Monday's 5-2 win over Calgary (at home) looks nice on paper, but came in spite of a 44-30 deficit in shots on goal. Plus, that amt of scoring from Arizona is very atypical considering they rank 30th in the league in goals per game. They have been outshot in five of the last six games.

Meanwhile, Buffalo was shutout on Monday, here at home. But that came against a great Nashville team. Tonight marks the Sabres' fifth straight game at home, so they have an edge there. (They did beat Chicago 5-3 on Saturday). Believe it or not, but Monday was only the third time since December 1st that the Sabres had been shutout. Leading scorer Jack Eichel is back, so that's a boost. My read here boils down to this is an incredibly cheap price to go against a bad Arizona team on the road. 8* Buffalo 

8* Carolina (7:05 ET): This is a seemingly meaningless game in the grand scheme of things (neither team has much of a shot at making the playoffs), so why play? Well, I look for the home side to be motivated here as they are trying to finish the season w/ a winning record in Raleigh, plus their playoff chances are at least a little more realistic compared to tonight's visitor. Also, the situation seems to favor the Hurricanes as well w/ Edmonton having to play a third straight road game out East, in a four-day span no less. Carolina's upcoming schedule is actually somewhat favorable, so they're not necessarily dead yet. 

Both of these teams are pretty frustrating to handicap and should probably be better. Both should be considered among the league's biggest disappointments for 2017-18, Edmonton moreso. What's frustrating about Carolina is that they consistently outshoot their opponents, yet more often than not, still come out on the losing end. Take the last five games for example. The 'Canes have averaged 36.2 shots on goal while giving up only 27.4. Yet, they are only 2-3 SU during that stretch and allowing 4.2 goals per game. That just shouldn't be the case. They outshot the Islanders 39-29 on Sunday en route to picking up a 4-3 road win. Something that may work in Carolina's favor here is that Edmonton is only 23rd in the league in scoring and dead last on the power play. 

Carolina actually enjoys the largest differential in shots per game in the entire league! So it's pretty unforgiveable that they're likely not going to make the playoffs, even w/ a late-season charge. It mostly falls on their goaltending, which has posted the worst collective save percentage in the league at .892. That's very bad. But Edmonton isn't much better (.900, tied for 2nd worst), which is also the reason they haven't had the kind of success they had envisioned. That league-worst power play also betrayed them yet again in Sunday's 3-1 loss at Tampa Bay as they were 0 for 5 w/ the man advantage. They're now 0 for the last 10. Carolina won the season's first meeting in Edmonton, 5-3, ironically despite being outshot 51-21! Something I'm going to predict here is that Oilers' goalie Cam Talbot has an "off-night." Curiously, he's been a lot better of late, but I feel regression is in the cards. 8* Carolina

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): I talk it about every day (it seems!), but that's because every game really is important in the Western Conference. You've got 11 teams fighting for eight playoff spots and only three - Nashville, Winnipeg and Vegas - feel like "safe" bets to make it. Currently, Minnesota is third in the Central (meaning they'd be in) w/ 89 pts. Tonight, the Wild host the Kings, who are not playing well and have dropped to fourth in the Pacific. LA enters the day tied w/ Dallas for the second of two Wild Card spots w/ 84 points. So two points will go a long way here. I made the mistake of playing the Kings Saturday night as they were shut out, at home, 3-0 by New Jersey. While they've alternated wins and losses this entire month, I look for that pattern to end tonight as they are facing a team w/ a league-low six regulation losses at home this year. 

Minnesota is off a pair of road wins, one that was to expected and the other not so much. Beating Arizona 3-1 on Saturday night was the former while a 4-2 win in Vegas on Friday was the latter. As a result, the Wild have to be feeling pretty good about themselves right now as they return to the XL Center where they are 24-6-6 this season. One of those six regulation losses came the last time they were here, 5-1 to Colorado on March 13th. So the players should be highly motivated tonight. There is nothing phony about this team's home record either as they are outscoring visitors by over a full goal per game here. Only six teams in the entire league can claim that and the Wild have the third best home scoring differential, trailing only Winnipeg and Colorado.

Minnesota has outshot its last five opponents. The Kings happened to outshoot New Jersey Saturday night, 38-28, but it was all for naught as they couldn't score a goal. Going 0 for 6 on the power play was an absolute killer. While the team still ranks highly in fewest goals allowed (2nd) and on the penalty kill (2nd), you obviously can't win if you don't score. Bad news for Kings fans is that the team is only 4-7 SU this season after being held to 1 or 0 goals in its previous game. They are also a surprisingly bad 12-22 against teams w/ winning records. They are just 1-2 after a shutout loss w/ the one win coming against Arizona. 8* Minnesota

8* Colorado (3:05 ET): The Western Conference playoff race just keeps getting tighter by the day as six teams battling for the final three spots are separated by just four points entering play on Sunday. Now one of those final three spots has to go to whomever finishes in the third place in the Pacific Division. So, for Colorado, the Wild Card is looking like the only real entry poing into the playoffs. The third place team in the Central, Minnesota, has five more points than the Avs, a gap which can be made up but would be difficult. Right now, Colorado is one of four teams w/ 84 points. The two Wild Cards would be decided between them, Dallas and whoever loses the third place tiebreak in the Pacific (LA or Anaheim) as those are the teams w/ 84 pts. St. Louis and Calgary lurk close behind w/ 81 and 80 pts respectively.

This afternoon, the Avs draw Detroit at home. This is the definition of "must-win." The Red Wings aren't good as their 63 points are tied for the second fewest in the Eastern Conference. Coming into the season, I had very "low hopes" for this club seeing as they were off a second-to-last place finish in the Atlantic in 2016-17 that could have actually been a lot worse, if not for a fortunate 9-0 record in shootouts. They're actually 4-1 in shootouts this season, but it hasn't mattered as they find themselves in the same spot. They are bottom five in the league in scoring as well as bottom 10 in goals allowed, power play and penalty killing. Really, there's nothing to like about them and, oh by the way, did I mention they come into this game on a NINE-game losing streak? Today marks their third road game in four nights. 

Back in the 90's, this was actually a big rivalry game, but now the teams are in different conferences. Colorado was - by far - the worst team in the league last season, but has improved exponentially in 2017-18. Really, what has happened in Vegas has totally overshadowed this remarkable turnaround, which has been fueled by the Avs' tremendous 24-9-2 home record. While Colorado has dropped four of its last 10 games overall, three of those losses have come either in OT. The other was Friday night, here at home, vs. Nashville. Despite that loss, however, the Avs are 14-2-1 their last 17 games. 8* Colorado

8* Los Angeles (4:05 ET): It seems as if almost half the league is separated by 10 points right now w/ only a handful of teams out of playoff contention (with 12 or fewer games to go!) and even fewer having broken away from the pack. Count both the Devils and Kings among those fighting for their playoff lives right now. Los Angeles enters this Saturday afternoon tilt as one of four teams in the Western Conference tied w/ 84 points. The way things stand currently, there's only room for three of those teams to make the playoffs, but one HAS to come from the Pacific (top three in each division automatically make playoffs). So tied w/ Anaheim, the Kings REALLY need the two points today. Of course, the same could be said for New Jersey, whose 80 pts has them in eighth place in the Eastern Conference (would be 2nd Wild Card), but a win here could move them past Columbus and Philadelphia in their own division. 

The Kings have had an "up and down" March, alternating wins and losses throughout. They are off a win, 4-1 over Detroit on Thursday. To me, this is a playoff team. They have allowed the second fewest number of goals in the league and are outstanding on the penalty kill as well (3rd best). As they desperately try and find some consistency, they are fortunate in that they can lean on netminder Jonathan Quick, who comes in hot. He has a 2.14 GAA and .932 save percentage the L15 games and that's including a rare "off-night" (got pulled early) last Saturday vs. St. Louis. Quick had another off-night against these Devils back in December, allowing a season-high five goals (on just 26 shots). But the Kings are 21-9-1 SU vs. the Eastern Conference this year and I expect Quick to play much better this go around. 

While the Kings rank near the top of the league in fewest goals allowed, the Devils have been downright pedestrian in all areas this year. Now, no one expected them to be contending for a playoff spot, but everything about them has been decidedly mediocre. They are off arguably their most "impressive" win of the season, having won at Vegas by a score of 8-3. Trust me when I say they won't come anywhere close to matching that result here. Winning at both Nashville and Vegas the L2 games is pretty remarkable, but the Devils were outshot in both games, including 42-28 by Vegas. Off their best offensive game of the year, the Devils will regress here as they are facing one of the top defensive teams (and goaltenders) in the game. 8* Los Angeles

10* Dallas (7:35 ET): Simply put, this is a must win game for the Stars. They have fallen to fifth in the absolutely loaded Central Division, making them what would be the final (2nd of 2) Wild Card teams in the Western Conference. To say the West is deep and log-jammed right now would be quite the understatement. We basically have 11 teams vying for 8 playoff spots. Three teams - Nashville, Winnipeg and Vegas - look to be "sure things" for the postseason. The other five spots will go to a group of what is now eight teams currently separated by just six points. At the end of today, Dallas could be tied for the 4th most points in the conference or outside the top eight entirely. They are facing an Ottawa team that has long been out of playoff contention over in the Eastern Conference and is rated among the league's worst. I have the two points going to the Stars. 

Dallas has not been helping itself at all of late as they've dropped three in a row and five of the last six. Their last four losses have all been out on the road. The current road trip won't be getting any easier w/ future dates at Winnipeg and Washington, so I really cannot stress how imperative it is to win here tonight. Ottawa is easily the weakest opponent of the six-game trip. Now the Stars did lose in Montreal earlier in the week, but that game and the subsequent 6-5 loss to Toronto (which went to a shootout) saw them finish w/ the edge in shots. Wednesday's loss in Toronto was pretty brutal as the Stars gave up three goals in the third period after rallying back from an early 2-0 hole themselves. Dallas has been a lot better this year when it comes to not giving up goals as they rank 6th in the league in that department. Certainly, the offense should feel confident going against a Senators club that is 30th in the league in goals against. 

Now Ottawa is off B2B wins here, having beaten Florida and Tampa Bay here at home. They scored seven times in a shocking win over the league-best Lightning on Tuesday, but the likelihood of that performance being repeated ranges between "slim" and "none." After scoring four or more goals the previous game, the Sens are 7-15 SU this season. They are also 8-21 SU after allowing four or more the previous game. A big key here is Dallas has NEVER lost four in a row at any point this season, going 3-0 when on a three-game slide. 10* Dallas

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): This sets up as huge battle in the Metropolitan Division w/ the third and fifth place teams meeting. Only two points separate Philly and Columbus w/ New Jersey now in between. For most of this season, it has looked extremely likely that the Metro would be sending five teams to the playoffs, taking both "Wild Card" spots. But w/ Florida making a late charge over in the Atlantic, things no longer appear that certain (bottom three in the Metro have all dropped off). So tonight's game is definitely very important to both sides and I'm going w/ the Flyers even though they have a better record on the road than at home! The key is the Blue Jackets are nowhere near as strong on the road as they are at home.

Now this play certainly "flies in the face" of recent form as C-bus has gotten hot, rattling off five consecutive victories while Philly is trending in the wrong direction, taking a loss in six of its last seven contests. But getting back to home vs. road splits, four of those five Blue Jackets' wins have come at home where they are now 23-11-2 for the season. On the road, their record is 14-17-3. Something else worth mentioning is how the Jackets have scored at least four goals in all five of those victories. This has been - by no means - an offensive juggernaut this season as the team ranks only 25th in goals per game. Eight of their last 16 games have come from defensemen, which seems unsustainable. I realize that Petr Mrazek hasn't necessarily been "lights out" since coming over from Detroit, but I'm calling for a strong effort in goal tonight. 

The Flyers were red hot at the end of February, having gone 10-1-2 for the month and additionally, they'd won 26 of their previous 37 contests. But March is not off to a good start, primarily due to a challenging schedule that has featured more road games than not. Over the L6 games, the Flyers have had to face: Tampa Bay, Florida, Pittsburgh, Boston, Winnipeg and Vegas. The L2 were at home, and while they did lose both times, Philly outshot both opponents. Each loss was by just one goal. They outshot Vegas 40-29 on Monday. Looking at the "ebbs and flows" of this season (for both times), I'd say this is a great time to buy low on the Flyers and sell high on the Blue Jackets as the money line is offering a nice value. 10* Philadelphia

8* Vegas (10:05 ET): For most of this year, the expansion Golden Knights have been THE story in NHL as it's looking more and more likely that they'll win the Pacific Division in their first year of existence. A case can me made that the team from Vegas is the best expansion team, EVER, in any sport. A large part of their success is due to what appears to be one of the strongest home ice advantages in the league. They've gone 24-7-2 in "Sin City" and whether or not that's the alleged "Vegas flu" (visiting teams having too much "fun" when they visit), or something else, the home ice edge is very real. I expect the "Vegas flu" in to inflict yet another opponent tonight, that being fellow overachiever New Jersey.

While they've been a dominant home team, let's not sell short what Vegas just did on the road. They took the final three games of a five-game trip out East (went 4-1 overall), allowing only three goals in the last three games. Now, two of the wins were against a couple of also-rans in Detrot and Buffalo. But they did just beat Philadelphia Monday night. The Flyers, like the Devils, are trying to lock down one of the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. The Golden Knights won despite a 40-29 deficit in shots as the power play contributed a pair of goals. Something to note is that Vegas is one of only four teams in the league right now to rank in the top 10 in both goals scored and goals allowed (Boston, Nashville, Winnipeg). Not coincidentally, those are four of the top five teams in points. Vegas is 3rd in the league in scoring overall and averages 3.64 goals per game here at home.

New Jersey has arguably been the biggest surprise out East as they've missed the playoffs each of the last five years, bottoming out w/ LY's last place finish. They come into tonight well-rested and off a win as they beat Nashville in a shootout Saturday, 3-2. That was on the road too, so perhaps the Devils can win here. But I don't think they will. The club is in the thick of a brutal stretch of games as they hosted Winnipeg (lost) before beating Nashville and now head to the West Coast where they'll next face the three California teams, followed by a trip to Pittsburgh. This stretch of games could cost them a playoff berth. 8* Vegas

10* Calgary (9:05 ET): This edition of the "Battle of Alberta" carries added importance for the Flames, who are only two points back of the Wild Card in the Western Conference, but in 11th place as well. That means they need to jump at least three teams to make the playoffs. Two points here would potentially tie them w/ Colorado (who is at Minnesota tonight) and Anaheim (idle) for the final WC spot. Sunday's 5-2 home loss to the Islanders certainly didn't help matters and thus the Flames can ill-afford another home defeat at the hands of a non-contender. Their sub-par home record (14-16-4) is cause for some concern here, but Edmonton is a team whose struggles run far deeper. Go with the favorite here. 

The Oilers are easily on the short-list for biggest disappointment in the league this season. Their fans were thinking Stanley Cup and a return to the glory days after last season's breakthrough campaign. However, the team won't even be competing for the Cup this year as their fate has long ago been decided. Special teams have been horrible all year as they rank dead last in penalty killing and second to last on the power play. They are also 29th in goals allowed. Now, they have played better recently, winning their last three games. But it's "too little, too late" and there's been only one winning streak longer all season (right before X-Mas). It also should be pointed out that two of those three wins came in OT or a shootout, against two of the league's worst - the Islanders and Coyotes. The last two times the Oilers found themselves on a win streak of three games, they were outscored by a combined 10-2.

As disappointing as the Oilers have been, they have had the Flames' number. They're 3-0 SU head to head this season, although two of the wins were at home. Over the last two seasons, the Oilers have now taken all seven head to head meetings. Think Calgary might be "slightly" motivated here tonight? Then, you throw in the fact that the team has only TWO home victories since the All-Star Break. I don't believe in the term "must win," because any team can lose at any time, but the Flames HAVE to have this one. I see them taking advantage of the Oilers' 30th ranked .898 save percentage. 10* Calgary

8* Dallas (7:35 ET): There's 11 teams currently competing for the eight playoff spots in the Western Conference and of those 11, only three (Nashville, Winnipeg, Vegas) seem like sure bets to get to the postseason. The other eight are left to fend for the final five spots, including two Wild Cards, and are separated by all of seven points entering play on Tuesday. Dallas is 4th in the Central right now and would be a Wild Card the way things stand. However, that status can change in an instant, which is why picking up two points tonight in Montreal is so crucial. The Habs should be all too willing to lay down as they're a bad team returning home after five straight defeats on the road. At this point, it's "wait until next year" for them as the playoffs are not a realistic possibility. 

It's been a series of low-scoring affairs for Dallas recently as the last five games, two wins and three losses, have all seen five or fewer total goals scored. This is much different than Stars' teams of the past, which were near the top of the league in scoring, but near the bottom in goals allowed. This edition happens to rank 4th in goals allowed even after a 3-1 loss at Pittsburgh Sunday night (where I was on the Penguins!). They managed only 18 shots in goal in that one and have scored two goals or fewer in regulation in five straight games. Fortunately for the Stars, the offense should turn around tonight against a Canadiens' club that has allowed 19 goals in just the L4 games. 

Montreal is simply playing out the string right now in what has been a very disappointing year for them. They won the Atlantic Division LY on the back of goalie Carey Price, but both Price and the team have regressed severely in 2017-18. Price is injured now and joining him on the bench tonight will be top defenseman Shea Weber (out for year) and captain Max Pacioretty (knee). The Montreal offense ranks 29th (third worst) in goals per game and while Price wasn't exactly playing well prior to getting hurt, the team's other goaltending options aren't exactly inspiring. The fact that the Habs played last night in Columbus (lost 5-2) does them no favors here. Charlie Lindgren started last night and has been terrible, so it's likely Antti Niemi. The Habs, who have just three wins in their L15 games overall, are only 3-8 SU when playing w/o rest. 8* Dallas

10* Pittsburgh (7:35 ET): No one has been able to pull away in the Metro this year and for all the teams not named Pittsburgh, that could prove fatal. The two-time defending Stanley Cup Champs have generally been the division's "best" team since the All-Star Break and as a result, a slower start than normal (to the season) has largely been erased. At one point, the Pens were in first place, but entering play today, they trail the rival Caps by one point. Sunday finds them hosting a Dallas team that's also in the thick of the playoff hunt, albeit in the other conference. The Stars actually have one more point than do the Pens, but are fourth in the brutally tough Central. To me, this one comes down to Pittsburgh's strong home ice advantage. They are 25-8-1 here at the Igloo this season.

Now, the Pens will have to bounce back from a very disappointing 5-2 loss up in Toronto Saturday. The Leafs were the desperate team there, returning home after losing four in a row. They played like it, coming out w/ a greater sense of urgency and taking a 4-0 lead after two periods. It was a 3-0 game after just nine Maple Leafs' shots. However, it should be pointed out that the Pens finished w/ a pretty dramatic 40-26 edge in shots for the game. I expect Pittsburgh's offense to rebound tonight given they'd scored nine goals in the previous two games and four or more in three of their previous four. Dallas is improved defensively this year, but the Pens are 5th in goals scored per game and have the league's top power play (26%).

The Stars' last game was a memorable one for me as it was my *10* Game of the Week (I had the Under) and the end result was a 2-1 game (in their favor). The Ducks were their victim Friday, but it was by no means an easy win as they had to score twice in the third period and both goals came via the power play. It's not like Dallas is known for being particularly strong when on the man advantage. Certainly they're nowhere near as good as Pittsburgh is on the PP. For the year, the Stars are just 20th w/ the man advantage. Keep in mind that prior to beating Anaheim, they were shutout by Nashville. That was their last road game and they've actually been shutout in two of their last three on the road. A lack of offense clearly won't cut it here. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Calgary (7:05 ET): While the Flames are still very much alive in the Western Conference playoff hunt, the Islanders appear all but done out East. The Isles were a target of a recent play by me, Thursday in Edmonton, and they went down in a shootout by a score of 2-1. I don't think this second game in Alberta will go any better for them. They've now lost eight in a row and despite the last three all coming in extra time (meaning they've still picked up a point), the gap between them and the other Wild Card contenders in the East continues to grow. The Isles are currently nine points back of the Wild Card. Meanwhile, Calgary sits 10th out of the 11 teams fighting for eight playoff spots out West. But they are only two points out of playoff position. After B2B road wins, look for the Flames to hold serve on home ice. 

Even before this eight-game losing streak, there was a major reason not to like the Isles and that's they rank dead last in the league in goals allowed. They're giving up an average of 3.5 per game, thereby nullifying the fact they are top eight in the league in scoring. Considering that dichotomy, Thursday was a bitter defeat in Edmonton as they held the Oilers to only one goal after 65 minutes (regulation + OT). Even worse is that the goal they allowed came w/ only 1:50 to go in the third period. Normally, the Islanders don't get that kind of goaltending, but Christopher Gibson stopped 35 of 36 shots. It's likely that Jaroslav Halak will be the one between the pipes tonight though and his save percentage his last four times out is a rather unsightly .868.

As I mentioned above, the Flames are off B2B road wins. They beat Carolina and Ottawa, two not very good teams, by a combined score of 7-2. They've also outshot all four opponents this month, by a pretty significant margin. It's odd that Calgary has struggled this year at the Saddledome where they are only 14-15-4 for the year. But, they are a perfect 6-0 SU on Sundays, no matter where they've played. The next three games, all here at home, are huge considering the Flames will be favored to win all of them and they can't afford losses right now w/ the playoff race so log-jammed. Beating a team in terrible form like the Islanders should not prove difficult, especially considering the Flames won out in Brooklyn last month, 3-2, with a 42-25 edge in shots. 8* Calgary

8* Colorado (3:05 ET): This would be the definition of "must-win" for the Avs, who are hosting the worst team in the league at a time they struggling, yet still well within reach of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. While a top three finish in the Central Division is beginning to look less and less likely, the Wild Card is still a distinct possibility here as Colorado enters Saturday one point behind the Kings for the second of the two WC spots. As I I already alluded to, the Avs have not been playing well of late as they've dropped three straight, all by exactly one goal. Meanwhile, Arizona has actually gone 8-2-1 its L11 games, but still has the fewest # of points and the second worst goal differential in the league today.

Colorado has enjoyed a pretty distinct home ice advantage in recent months, going 13-1-1 its last 15 games at the Pepsi Center. One of those two losses took place on Sunday when they hosted red-hot Nashville. That was then followed w/ B2B road losses to Chicago and Columbus. Arizona did come here to Denver and win back in December, but I don't see history repeating itself here. Note that four days before suffering that home loss, the Avs won in Arizona by a score of 6-2. Another key here is the possible return of goalie Jonathan Bernier, who has missed the last 10 games due to a concussion. The team won only 4 of those 10 games, but four losses were in extra time. Bernier brings a .930 save percentage at home, but Semyon Varlamov isn't a bad option either as he's been an even stingier .935.

Colorado ranks 9th in the league in goals per game. That's a huge edge over Arizona, who is 30th (next to last) and there shouldn't be much problem here scoring for the Avs as the 'Yotes rank 26th in goals against. Playing w/ exactly two days' rest (as they are here), Arizona is a hideous 1-10 SU this season. This is the end of a three-game "Northwest" swing for the Coyotes, who played in Edmonton and Vancouver earlier this week. They actually dominated the Canucks (34-17 edge in shots), but those kind of performances have been few and far between for the club in 2017-18. Certainly, I don't expect them to play that well again. Meanwhile, after three straight OT losses, this afternoon is the Avs' time. 8* Colorado

8* San Jose (10:35 ET): In a Western Conference playoff race that runs 11 teams deep, neither the Sharks nor the Blues can be feeling very good about themselves right now, St. Louis in particular. The Blues are sixth in the Central Division and while only two points back of the final Wild Card spot, they actually have to jump three teams. San Jose is third in the Pacific, meaning they'd be guaranteed a playoff spot, but has only a two-point edge over the Kings and the Ducks recently passed them for second place. Both teams were at one point considered very probable playoff contenders. Now both are in dire need of two points. 

Things have gone very badly for the Blues dating back to mid-February as they have lost eight of their last nine games. I have been on the correct side of each of their last three games, including the lone win during the nine-game stretch, that coming at home against Detroit on 2.28. At the time, I wrote how important that game was for them as it was their only home game from 2.24 to 3.15. They were also coming off an ugly 8-3 loss to Minnesota the previous night. As alluded to, they did beat the Red Wings, but the good times did not last as they fell in OT at Dallas on Saturday afternoon. All this time off to prepare them for the dreaded Southern California trip seems nice, but time off alone cannot cure all that ails this club. Two key players - defenseman Jay Bouwemeester and forward Scottie Upshall - were injured Saturday and will miss significant time. That's the last thing this team needed right now. Also, their one strength, goaltending, has taken a dive recently w/ both Carter Hutton and Jake Allen posting sub-.900 save percentages their last four starts each.

San Jose has the league's top penalty killing unit, so they match up well w/ a St. Louis team that is 29th on the power play. The Blues also don't score much period as they are 25th in goals per game. There have been only two times in the nine-game swoon where the Blues have scored more than two goals. One of them was against Minnesota when they also happened to give up eight! Prior to losing to Columbus at home on Sunday (so Sharks are well-rested too), the Sharks had won B2B games here, beating Edmonton and Chicago while scoring 12 goals in the process. 8* San Jose

10* Edmonton (9:05 ET): The Oilers are arguably the league's biggest disappointment this season, but that didn't stop me from taking them Monday and they beat Arizona 4-3 in overtime. Now there really isn't anything special about beating arguably the worst team in the league, at home. However, tonight's matchup also seems ideal. They'll host the rapidly fading Islanders, who are losers of seven in a row and in last place in the Metro. Making this an even better matchup from Edmonton's perspective is the fact the Isles are one of only two teams giving up more goals per game they are! In fact, the Isles allow the most goals per game in the league! Look for the Oilers to take advantage of that and get the two points. 

Edmonton has been killed by their special teams this season as they rank last in the league both on the power play and penalty killing. They are only 20th in goals per game, but given the number of shots per game we see from them, that ranking should probably be higher. Opposing goaltenders have a .917 save percentage against them, but they shouldn't have to worry about the Islanders' defense, which gives up a ton of shots in addition to the most goals per game. Likely starting here for NY is Jaroslav Halak, whose save percentage is an ugly .868 the L4 games. In Monday's OT loss at Vancouver, Halak surrendered four goals on only 23 shots. Edmonton is near the top of the league w/ an average of 34.0 per game. The Islanders allow the most at 35.7 per game. 

Edmonton won out in Brooklyn way back in November. They've also beaten the Islanders six of the last seven times they've hosted them. While three of the games during the Isles' seven-game skid have come in extra time, they are an ideal matchup for the Oilers based not only on history, but based on the fact they are just as bad at giving up goals (actually worse) and equally as bad at penalty killing. I look for Edmonton to win a relatively high scoring affair here. 10* Edmonton

10* Vancouver (10:05 ET): The Canucks rarely - if ever - receive an endorsement from me, but before you go writing this play off as a byproduct of a small NHL card Wednesday, take a look at the opponents. It's that same Arizona team we played against two nights ago (in Edmonton) and came away w/ a winning ticket. Coming into this season, the Coyotes were projected to be the worst team in the league and they have not disappointed, ranking last in points and goal differential. Their eight road wins are also the fewest in the league. Vancouver isn't too far ahead of them, and certainly a bottom five team themselves, but this is one spot where they absolutely deserve to be favored and should win. 

Sure enough, the Canucks are already in off a win here as they beat the Islanders 4-3 Monday night. The win took place here on home ice and it was the seventh time in the last eight games they scored at least three goals. That kind of production sure comes in handy when facing the 30th ranked team in goals per game (out of 31). Now Vancouver is w/o leading scorer Brock Boeser for the rest of the season as the rookie sustained a pretty serious back injury in closing minutes of regulation vs. the Isles. But the team did manage to win w/o him, scoring 2:47 into overtime. Let's not fool ourselves into thinking the Canucks are a "good" home team, but they certainly are more than capable of beating Arizona on home ice.

Arizona has gone 7-2-1 its L10 games, but that recent success is what made it such an easy decision to fade them at Edmonton Monday as the likelihood of them sustaining it seemed small. Over the L5 games, they've averaged less than 2.0 goals per game and on the road this season they're being outscored by more than a full goal per game. Goaltending has never been a strong point w/ this team and their one decent one (Antti Ranta) is battling a lower-body injury. Jacob Markstrom is no "world beater" for the Canucks either, but made 41 saves in a win at Arizona two weeks ago. That result improved Vancouver to 7-3 the L10 meetings. 10* Vancouver

8* Nashville (8:05 ET): In my analysis of the Ottawa-Dallas game last night, I wrote that it was a game the Stars "needed badly." But because of the money line, I opted to instead play the total (Under), which won. Good thing I did because the Stars lost to one of the five worst teams in the league, 3-2 in overtime, at home no less. That makes tonight's spot, which was going to be tough to begin with, even tougher. Dallas visits Nashville here and the Preds have won eight in a row to take control of the Central Division. Last year's Stanley Cup runner-ups are now thinking President's Trophy as they have the most points in the Western Conference and are just one point behind Tampa Bay for the overall league lead. It only seems logical to endorse them on home ice, facing an unrested foe.

The Preds' eight-game win streak has seen them outscore the opposition by more than a 2:1 margin (37-18). There have been some close calls recently, such as the 4-3 overtime win at Colorado on Sunday (I had them there!). But note that was also the team's third road game in four nights and the previous two were up in Western Canada. The trip also began w/ a 6-5 win at Winnipeg, which is very impressive. Now Nashville is back home where they've gone 22-7-3 SU this season. Really, I'm surprised that the home record isn't even better as they're outscoring visitors by a full goal per game at Bridgestone Arena. They're #6 in goals per game at home and overall this season. Combine that w/ the fact they are #3 in goals allowed and you have yourself a team that belongs on EVERYONE's short list for Stanley Cup contenders.

Losing to a bad team wasn't the only bad news to come out of last night's game for Dallas. Goalie Ben Bishop also left w/ a knee injury and will miss at least two games. He wasn't going to start tonight anyway, but it's absolutely worth noting that backup Kari Lehtonen has a poor .899 save percentage in division games. The Stars were already banged up even before the Bishop injury as three forwards will be missing this game as well. Last night's loss may prove very costly for Dallas in the big picture and it definitely hurts them tonight. 8* Nashville

10* Edmonton (9:05 ET): This has been a real "downer" of a season for the Oilers, but if there's one matchup they should be able to take full advantage of, it's this one where they're hosting the lowly Coyotes. The difference between these two teams is that while Edmonton has been a giant disappointment, Arizona has been every bit as bad as expected. The 'Yotes currently rank last in the league in points (50), have the second worst goal differential (-54) and are second worst in goals scored per game (2.4). The Oilers have lost three in a row, but have legit revenge here after being shutout in the desert, 1-0, back on February 17th.

I look for 2018-19 to be a big bounce back season for Edmonton. But for now they'll just have to resign themselves to the fact this wasn't their year. Following LY's renaissance, fans were thinking the team would be a Cup contender this year. But things got off to a disastrous start and they never recovered. However, one thing the team does well is get the puck on net, especially at home. Edmonton is averaging 36.1 shots per game at home, one of the best marks in the league. They are actually seventh in the league right now in shot per game differential. One would think that would translate into more victories, but it hasn't. The problem has been lousy goaltending (team is 31st in save percentage) coupled w/ ridicuously good goaltending from the opposition. Opposing goalies have posted a .917 save percentage vs. the Oilers this season.

Arizona is not strong between the pipes however, and I look for that to be key here tonight. Antii Ranta will be the starting goalie for the 'Yotes and while he turned in a 40-save shutout the last time against the Oilers, I don't see a strong likelihood of him duplicating that performance. Arizona is tied for the fewest number of road wins in the league w/ just eight. Now I should mention they've been playing well of late, winning B2B games and seven of their last nine. But despite all that, they're still at the bottom of the league. Two points haven't come easy for the Oilers all season, but they should here. 10* Edmonton

10* Nashville (3:05 ET): Nobody is as hot as the Preds right now as your Central Division leaders have the longest active win streak in the NHL right now at seven games and counting. One can only imagine how fired up "SMASHVILLE" is right now considering LY's playoff run which saw the team come in as a Wild Card, not potentially the #1 seed in the Western Conference. It has been complete domination during this seven-game win streak as they've outscored the opposition 33-15. While they did need OT to get by Vancouver Friday night, the other six wins all came in regulation. No way I'm not jumping on board today at this price, even though the opponent (Colorado) is on its own mini win-streak.

Nobody, myself included, expected the Avs to be any kind of playoff contender in 2018. After all, they were the worst team in the league a season ago, by a mile. But they've already easily surpassed LY's point total (48!) and enter Sunday one point behind the final Wild Card in the Western Conference (Anaheim). They've won three in a row, all here on home ice, including a shocking 7-1 rout of Minnesota on Friday. The Avs only had 26 shots on goal for the game, but quickly knocked out Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk after scoring five times on their first 17 shots. Goals will NOT come as easy today against Pekka Rinne, who is having himself a Vezina-caliber season, including a .941 save percentage his L4 starts. Rinne's presence is a big reason why the Preds have beaten the Avs eight straight times.

Now Colorado has won 13 of its last 14 at home, but Nashville happens to be one of the league's best road teams. Tonight, the Preds look to make it a perfect 4-0 road trip. While they did need extra time to get by the Canucks on Friday, note it was a 42-27 edge in shots for Nashville. That was the second game in a row w/ 40+ shots on goal. The Preds are not only sixth in the league in scoring, but also second in goals allowed. Only Tampa Bay has more points. Simply put, you don't want to be playing against this team right now, not w/ the fact they averaged 5.0 goals and 40.4 shots the last five games. Yes, Colorado is hot too and a good home team. But the bottom line is they are not in the "Predators' league." 10* Nashville

8* Dallas (2:05 ET): St. Louis picked up a rare and much-needed two points Wednesday when they beat Detroit by a score of 2-1. That win snapped a seven-game losing streak that had the Blues slipping down the Central Division standings at a fairly rapid pace. It was also on home ice. Unfortunately for the Blues, it's back to the road as a four-game trip starts tonight. (They'll be out in California for the other three). Needless to say, this is a very big game for both teams as Dallas is currently fourth in the Central w/ 77 pts. That's three ahead of sixth place St. Louis and two back of third place Minnesota. Remember that the top three in each division are guaranteed to make the postseason. I've been saying all year long that five will get in from the Central and the Stars are going to be one of them. I like the home favorite this afternoon. 

For Dallas, today marks the fourth game of a five-game homestand, which hasn't really gotten off to a good start. Sure, there's no shame in losing to league-leading Tampa Bay (which the Stars did Thursday) nor Winnipeg (who won here on 2.24). But still, Dallas has been a good home team this season (22-10-2) and you would think they'd do a better job at protecting their own rink. Now the loss to the Lightning did see the Stars finish w/ a decided edge in shots and pick up a point as the game went into overtime. Still though, given how tightly packed the Central Division is right now, they can't afford another loss. It was just over two weeks ago when the Stars beat the Blues 2-1 here at American Airlines Center. In fact, the home team has won all four prior head to head matchups this season. 

Dallas ranking 4th in the league in goals allowed is NOT something I would have expected coming into the season. St. Louis is also top five, but the Stars have a decided edge on the offensive end where they rank 15th in goals per game while the Blues are 25th. Over the L4 games, St. Louis has been shutout twice and given up eight goals in another loss. Dallas is outscoring its visitors by nearly a full goal per game this season. Having Ben Bishop on the roster is a big reason why Dallas has been so much better between the pipes this season. Meanwhile, it sounds as if the Blues will turn to backup goalie Carter Hutton tonight. Hutton has a save percentage of .889 his L4 starts. 8* Dallas

10* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): The Islanders are by no means out of playoff contention as we move into March, however, they've certainly done themselves no favors of late. It's a four-game losing streak coming into tonight where they'll face the team that just beat them on Wednesday, Montreal. Only this time, the matchup will be on home ice. In Montreal, the Canadiens prevailed 3-1, which was their fifth straight game w/ at least a point. However, this is still a team "going nowhere" and w/ goaltending issues to boot, I just can't see the Habs beating the Isles twice in a row. While they have recorded a point in five straight games, the Habs have still come out on the short end in three of those.

If the Isles ultimately fail to make the postseason, it won't be any secret as to what went wrong. They currently rank dead last in the league in goals allowed, giving up an average of 3.6 per game. However, it's the offense that has burned them the L2 games, scoring just one goal each time out. This is a team that ranks 7th in the league in gpg, so we're certainly accustomed to seeing more scoring out of them. They've allowed a total of only five goals the last two games. I fully expect the offense to get back on track here as the Habs have a pretty shaky goaltending situation going on right now.

That goaltending situation involves Carey Price being out due to a concussion. Antti Niemi is the de facto #1 between the pipes right now and while he's gone 2-0-1 his L3 starts (made 27 saves Wednesday), I'm not sure I'd trust him considering he has a save percentage below .900 this season. On the road, his save percentage dips down to a really ugly .862. The Habs aren't a good road team anyway as their record away from home this year is just 8-19-2. Therefore, look for this trip (6 games in 12 days) to officially "sink their season.' 10* NY Islanders

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): I played the Flyers back on 2.20 when they were able to rally for a 3-2 overtime win over Montreal. It's a shame that I haven't played them more recently as this is a hot team right now. They've won six in a row and 10 of the last 11 to move into second place in the Metro and now only trail first place Washington (idle tonight) by a single point. Going back even further, we find them at 26-8-3 since December 4th. Really, were it not for a 10-game losing streak (five of those coming in OT/shootout) in late November, this would likely be considered one of the top teams in the league. On the other end of the spectrum, you have Carolina, losers of six straight and playing a third consecutive road game. This price is way too low considering the current states of the respective teams.

While Philly's aformentioned long losing streak in November saw a lot of bad luck, the current win streak has predictably seen a lot of good fortune. Five of their last 10 wins have come in extra time, including Monday's 1-0 win over Montreal, which went to a shootout. However, don't let that fool you into thinking this isn't a great team. They haven't been beaten in regulation since Feb 1. Goaltending was the only concern I had w/ this club and that was addressed with the acquisition of Peter Mrazek at the deadline. Mrazek has started the L3 games and has a 1.30 GAA and .947 save percentage. He's a good bet to start tonight considering a 6-1 lifetime record vs. Carolina that comes w/ a 1.71 GAA and .951 save percentage. 

Meanwhile, as good as things are going in the City of Brotherly Love right now, it's just as bad down in Carolina. The Hurricanes finally managed to score some goals Tuesday vs. Boston (three), yet still lost in overtime. While the team continues to outshoot its opponents by a solid margin, it's simply not translating into victories right now. The 'Canes will also be w/o captain Jordan Staal this evening, which is obviously a major loss. While Philly addressed its goaltending problems, Carolina's still persist as they rank 30th in overall save percentage at .896. Neither Scott Darling nor Cam Ward has been in decent form lately, so there's no real good option here. The 'Canes are just 12-23 SU this year when facing a team w/ a winning record. 8* Philadelphia

10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The Blues lost their seventh straight game last night and it was in ugly fashion, 8-3 at Minnesota. I was on the Wild and that wasn't the first time I played against the ice cold Blues during this losing streak. But as "un-complimentary" as I've been towards them recently (justifiably so!), I'm jumping on board tonight! They're back home and facing a Detroit team I don't have much respect for. Consider that when these two old Norris Division rivals met in December, not only did St. Louis win 6-1 in the Motor City, but they were -150 on the money line. By comparison, we're getting tremendous value on the Blues at home tonight. The long losing streak finally ends tonight. 

After losing three straight home games by identical 3-2 scores, the Red Wings have bounced back w/ consecutive victories. The last one, in Madison Square Garden, required overtime to defeat the Rangers 3-2. The Rangers, like St. Louis here, have been a cold team. They too have lost seven in a row and are 3-13-1 L17 overall. But despite this, I don't see Detroit winning B2B road games. This trip, which will continue w/ visits to Boston, Minnesota and Winnipeg, could likely sink the Wings' season. They're only hope of making the playoffs is the Wild Card and it's quite the gap to make up w/ a ton of teams to jump. This team is 27th in the league in goals per game and only 11-17 SU when facing an opponent that has a winning record. 

There's no sugarcoating the Blues' last three results. We're talking the wrong end of two 4-0 shutouts, then they lost 8-3 last night. Tonight will be their only home game over a 19-day stretch. Next time they'll play at the Scottrade Center is March 15th vs. Colorado. So I fully expect tonight's game to be treated w/ the utmost importance. This string of recent results is very unlike St. Louis, who still ranks 8th in the league in goals allowed. The offense went an incredible 150:23 w/o a goal before Vladimir Tarasenko found the back of the net in the 2nd perod. It's unclear who will be in goal tonight (both Jake Allen and Carter Hutton saw ice time last night), but regardless, I give the Blues the edge between the pipes in this matchup. With Peter Mrazek dealt, Detroit is basically left w/ only Jimmy Howard, who only has an .899 save percentage vs. non-conference foes. 10* St. Louis

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Something I've harped on throughout this NHL season is that in each conference, one division is far superior to the other. In the Western Conference, the Central Division has better of the two and thus will likely produce five playoff teams (get both Wild Cards) as opposed to the likely three from the Pacific. While it's either Winnipeg or Nashville that will win the Central, Minnesota is also making a "hard charge" up the standings as they are currently in third place w/ 77 points and on a four-game win streak. Trending in the opposite direction is tonight's opponent, St. Louis, who has lost six in a row to fall into fifth and for right now, on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the playoff picture.

It's been division games that have really hurt the Blues during this losing streak w/ four of the six games coming against Central foes. Really, this game sets up no differently than when I played against them Sunday afternoon in Nashville. The result there for St. Louis was a second straight 4-0 shutout loss as Winnipeg did the same thing to them on Friday (at home). Finding the back of the net has been a real problem for the Blues this year as they rank 22nd in the league in goals per game, not to mention 28th on the power play. Getting outscored 8-0 the L2 games may be a low-point for the season, but they've also topped two goals only one time during this losing streak. Quite simply, they're a team I want no part of right now. 

Minnesota, on the other hand, treated me well Sunday. They rallied back from a two-goal deficit (here at home) to defeat San Jose in overtime, 3-2. It was their fourth consecutive win and they've scored at least three goals in all four victories. So this really is a matchup of two teams trending in very different directions. Recent form isn't the only reason this is a terrible matchup for St. Louis, however. As stated in my analysis for Sunday's game, the Wild lead the league in fewest number of goals allowed at home (2.2 per game). So, the Blues' offensive struggles are very likely to continue tonight. Minnesota goalie Devan Dubnyk has a .931 save percentage here at the XCel Center. The Wild won in St. Louis (6-2!) earlier this month and don't discount the motivation from behind the bench as HC Mike Yeo was fired by the Blues last season. 8* Minnesota

8* Colorado (9:05 ET): An Avalanche team desperate for two points gets a break Monday in that they get to host lowly Vancouver. These teams just faced off last week and the Avs won 5-4, in overtime. Why is this game so important to the Avs? Well, they're starting to fall behind the pack when it comes to the playoff chase. They are four points back of the final Wild Card, but are looking at having to jump several teams. A return home to face a weak opponent should do the trick. The Avs are 20-8-1 on home ice. The Canucks have just two wins in the last 10 games (entering Sunday) and have given up 11 goals in the last two. 

No one expected the Avs to be a playoff contender this year. After all, they were the worst team in the league last season by a wide margin. But they have surprised and then some. They already have 21 more points than all of last season. Injuries along the blue line have started to slow them down over the last week. But it's been the #10 offense in goals per game that has mostly carried them. They outshot the Canucks last week, 34-28, and I imagine they'll do the same again here.

There's a chance Vancover comes into this game on a three-game losing streak, although they play at Arizona Sunday night and if there's one team (on paper) that they should beat, it's the 'Yotes. Regardless of what happens there, I'm definitely playing against the Canucks. They've been outscored by 36 goals this season (as of press time) and will be playing the second game of a back to back. It will also be a third road game in four nights. If they win Sunday, it makes sense to fade them as this isn't a team that wins B2B games very often. A loss and they'll all the more demoralized. Their goaltending situation is not good, which makes them an even better fade in this situation. 8* Colorado

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Right now, they are basically 11 viable contenders for the eight playoff spots in the Western Conference. These two are counted among them. Both are in the top three in their respective divisions, but those positions are tenuous to say the least. San Jose is second in the Pacific w/ 74 points and isn't likely to be catching 1st place Vegas. The Sharks' greater concern should revolve around who may catch them as three teams in the Pacific are within three points of them. Back to back losses in Nashville and Chicago certainly weren't encouraging either. Now they head to the Twin Cities to face a Wild team coming off a highly successful 3-0 East Coast swing. Home ice should provide the neccessary advantage in this one though.

Like San Jose in the Pacific, upward mobility for Minnesota in the Central is somewhat limited. They are unlikely to catch the two teams ahead of them, Winnipeg and Nashville, as there's an eight point gap right now. As is the case w/ the Sharks, it's staying in front of who's behind them that's more important right now. Dallas is only one point back of Minnesota while struggling St. Louis is only three points back. Again though, you have to be impressed w/ how the Wild dominated their recent road trip and scored 13 times in beating the Rangers, Islanders and Devils. Yet they're also certainly happy to be back home where their record somewhat underlies how well they've played here. The team has more OT/shootout losses (6) at home than regulation losses (5). They have 20 wins and are outscoring teams by a full goal per game. No team allows fewer goals per game at home than the Wild (2.16). 

San Jose is near the bottom of the league in goals scored on the road and we've seen that play out the L2 games as they scored just one time against both Nashville and Chicago. Special teams have been huge for the Sharks this year, but they've also been giving up a ton of shots recently. Martin Jones, who has an unsustainable .950 save percentage his L4 starts, cannot continue to bail his team out at that rate. I mentioned earlier that the Wild give up the fewest number of goals per game in the league at home. Goaltender Devan Dubnyk has a .931 save percentage at the XCel Center this season. 8* Minnesota

8* Nashville (12:05 ET): In some analysis written earlier this week, I'd written that I wasn't sure who would end up winning the Central Division, but it would "probably be Nashville or Winnipeg." Those two teams enter Sunday deadlocked at the top w/ 83 points apiece. I had the Predators in their last game, which ended up being a 7-1 romp over San Jose, the team's third consecutive win overall. The Preds are clearly one of the top teams in the sport this season and it's difficult not to like them in this early start time, on home ice, against the struggling Blues. St. Louis has now lost five in a row after being shutout (at home) by Winnipeg on Friday. As a result, their playoff chances have grown more precarious by the day.

Among the Blues' five straight losses was a visit here to Music City. They fell 4-3 to the Preds, a game that went into overtime. At the time, it was the fifth consecutive game for Nashville that went into extra time. They'd go onto lose their next two, but have since won three straight, scoring 15 total goals in the process. When they beat the Blues, there was definitely some good fortune involved. Not only did they rally from a three-goal deficit in the third period, but the game winner in OT was scored on a penalty shot. Still, it's been more of a case of skill than luck when it comes to the Preds' success in 2018.

Goaltender Pekka Rinne has been the driving force behind Nashville ranked #2 in goals allowed in the league. Rinner has also beaten St. Louis seven of the last nine times he's faced them and given up just four goals total in three games against them this season, three of them coming in that last meeting. Facing the Blues at a time when they've scored only seven times over a five-game span seems advantageous. Here at home, Nashville is outscoring opponents by nearly a full goal per game to begin with and is likely to facing a struggling goaltender today as Carter Hutton sports a poor .875 percentage his L4 starts. The Blues aren't a terribly dynamic offensive team to begin with and I don't think this early start time on the road does them any favors, quite frankly. 8* Nashville

8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): I've talked about this many times previously, but it bears repeating. It didn't take long this season for the Atlantic Division to divide itself into the have's and have not's. The division is comprised of three of the top six teams in the sport (in terms of goal differential), but the other five are also-rans at best w/ a few contending for worst team in the league. Here, from the first group we have Tampa Bay, who has led the division the whole way and is the current clubhouse leader for the President's Trophy (most points in the league). On other side, there's Montreal, a team that has fallen off badly this season (won division LY!) and had lost six in a row prior to Thursday's win over the equally cold Rangers.

This is Tampa's third road game in five nights. They won the first two, winning at Washington and Ottawa, scoring four goals in both games. The top scoring team in the league has now scored at least three goals in eight consecutive games. Now they were outshot, pretty severely, by both the Caps and Sens. But that's not part for the course, obviously. No team is even close to the Lightning's 21 road wins and they've outscored opponents by 0.8 gpg at their own rinks! They did lose here in Montreal back in January, but had a 45-38 edge in shots. It was a red hot Carey Price in goal that night for the Habs, but the former Vezina winner hasn't been that caliber a netminder for much of this season. Case in point; his save percentage in his L4 starts is .886. 

Price's decline has been a major part of the overall team decline this year in Montreal. Then again, they also rank 28th in goals scored per game, so it's been a real "all around" effort here. I give a big edge to the Lightning between the pipes in this one as they elected to rest Andrei Vasilevskiy against Ottawa, meaning he'll be extra fresh for tonight. Vasilevskiy has won 8 of his previous 11 starts and given up two goals or fewer in 28 of 49 starts this season. His seven shutouts lead the league and he has a save percentage of .937 on the road. As mentioned before, Montreal is off a win, but prior to that they'd dropped six in a row and allowed five or more goals in three of those defeats. They're only 8-19 SU this year against teams w/ a winning record. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Nashville (8:05 ET): I'm not sure which team is going to end up winning the Central, but the "smart money" is probably on either Nashville or Winnipeg. The Predators are currently ahead (by only two points) as they've won B2B games. Them being in first place is also owed to the fact they're the one team in the division w/ a decent road record (only 7 regulation losses). Tonight, the Preds are at home though, hosting San Jose. For the Sharks, winning a division is probably out of the question as they trail Vegas by 10 points in the Pacific. Still, finishing second would be huge as that means they could have home ice advantage in a 1st round playoff series (likely against Anaheim or LA). So a lot is on the line here tonight.

The Sharks have won three straight, beating Vancouver, Dallas and St. Louis. That last one came on the road as all five goals were scored in the second period (was a 3-2 final). This is going to be a tough road trip though as not only do the Sharks have to play here, but they're in Chicago tomorrow night, then Minnesota on Sunday. It is interesting that San Jose's only loss in the L6 games came at home to lowly Arizona. But they've had little luck here in Music City in the past, losing 9 of the last 10 visits. Despite being a solid team most of this season, the Sharks have only one win streak of more than three games and that took place all the way back in late October/early November. Since then, they're 0-3 SU when on a 3-game win streak, getting outscored 16-5 in those games.

Nashville should have a rested Pekka Rinne in goal for this one as he sat out Tuesday's 3-2 win at Detroit. Juuse Suaros turned in a solid effort in his place, stopping 34 shots there. Rinne is 30-9-4 SU on the season w/ a 2.35 GAA and .926 save percentage. That latter number is top five in the league. The Preds are 20-7-3 SU at home this year and no slouch offensively as they average 3.5 goals per game here. They'll be tested here, but they're also the better team playing on home ice and have their #1 goalie rested and ready to go. I see the Predators holding serve in this key Western Conference battle. 8* Nashville

10* Over Kings/Jets (8:05 ET): The Kings failed to deliver me an Over bet last night, but I'm sure that was the last thing on their mind as they beat the Blackhawks 3-1. That much needed win pulled them into a fourth place tie w/ Calgary in the Pacific as well as kept them on pace in the playoff hunt. There's two ways the Kings can get into the playoffs. Finishing in the top three in the division would guarantee them a spot (they're currently two points back of Anaheim) or there's the Wild Card (they're currently two points back of Minnesota). They have a better goal differential than both of those teams, not to mention all but three teams in the entire Western Conference. Problem is, they'll be facing one of those three tonight, on the road no less.

Winnipeg is not an easy place to win at. The Jets have the league's best home record (23-5-2) and have won three in a row here, all in dominant fashion. They've outscored Washington, Colorado and Florida by a combined score 17-6 over the last week and it's certainly important to note that this will be their sixth straight home game overall while LA is playing its seventh straight on the road. This is the last game of the respective homestand/road trip for each. So it's easy to see why the Jets come in as such prohibitive favorites. But the price does seem a bit inflated, so I won't be taking them either.

Rather, it's back to Over w/ the Kings tonight. Typically a "third period team," the Kings scored all three of their goals last night in the first two periods and held on for a 3-1 victory. They now rank 2nd in the league in goals allowed per game (2.5) and have the third best penalty killing unit (83.5%). But here they'll be facing a team that is not only #3 in goals scored per game overall (3.3), but also first at home (3.83 gpg). We've seen what they can do the L3 games. The Kings have been giving up more shots than usual lately and Jonathan Quick has been a bit inconsistent this month. On the flip side, the Kings have scored at least three goals in seven of their last eight games. They had 39 shots on goal in a 2-1 home loss to the Jets back in November. Were they to get off a similar number tonight, I suspect we'd see a lot more goals scored. 10* Over Kings/Jets

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Stop me if you've heard this before ... the Metropolitan Division is logjammed and every game matters. It's a virtual lock that five teams from the Metro will make the playoffs, but outside of Washington and Pittsburgh, it's unclear just who will comprise the quintet. All eight teams in the division are definitely alive, but we're starting to (finally) just now see some separation. The Flyers are one of two teams (also the Devils) that happen to be closing in on the top two (Caps and Pens) in the division. Remember finishing third is huge as it guarantees a playoff berth. The Flyers enter today tied w/ the Devils for third at 70 points each. Tonight, they face a team trending in the opposite direction. 

That would be Montreal, losers of five in a row. The Habs are in a terrible spot here as they just played three straight out West (Colorado, Arizona, Vegas) in a four-day span. I had the Over in their 6-3 loss to Vegas. Antti Niemi got the start between the pipes and was a disaster, giving up three goals on the first six shots. He was quickly replaced by Carey Price, but as I've discussed previously the former Vezina winner is not having himself a good season either. Price's save percentage his L4 games is a hideous .870 and for the year, he's below .900 on the road. Throw in the fact that Montreal also ranks 29th in goals scored per game and there's just not a lot to like about this club right now. It's easy to see why they are one of the worst in the Eastern Conference.

This will be the Habs' second visit to the City of Brotherly Love this month. The five-game losing streak started here on Feb 8th w/ a 5-3 setback. I'm not sure there's a case to be made as to why tonight will turn out any differently. The Flyers have won seven of eight, a streak which got going w/ the return of goaltender Brian Elliott, but has continued despite uncertainly between the pipes. Elliott is injured again as is backup Michael Neuvirth (questionable for tonight). But Alex Lyon certainly got all the help he needed Sunday afternoon when the team scored seven goals in a rout of the Rangers at MSG. That marked the fifth time in the last six games that the Flyers scored at least four goals. The team did just acquire Petr Mrazek in a deadline deal w/ Detroit. But the bottom line is that this team is 22-8-3 since 12.4 w/ no regulation losses the L8 games. It's a terrible spot for Montreal, who has already lost all four visits here the last three seasons. 8* Philadelphia

8* Los Angeles (1:05 ET): The Kings HAVE to have this one as they've not only lost three in a row (all on the road), but the losing streak now has them on the "outside looking in" when it comes to playoff picture in the Western Conference. They are currently fifth in the Pacific Division despite having a YTD goal differential (+20) better than every team besides 1st place Vegas. To me, this is a playoff team, but they're three points back of where they need to be. The current road trip (seven games) won't get any easier after this as they travel to Chicago (struggling I know, but always a tough place to play) and Winnipeg. So a visit to last place Buffalo becomes the very definition of a "must-win" to me. I think they get it done. 

The Sabres had actually won three of four prior to losing in overtime to Ottawa Thursday night. Twice the Sabres had a one-goal lead in the third period and both times (obviously) they gave it away. Perhaps the Senators' comeback was inevitable considering they outshot the Sabres 22-12 in the first two periods and 36-22 for the game. It should be noted that Buffalo did recently beat both Tampa Bay and Boston, who are arguably the two top teams in the league right now. But that success simply isn't likely to last. They did win their final three games before the All-Star Break, but other than that you'd have to go all the way back to October to find the only other time all season that they even won three times in a six-game stretch. 

What makes this such an ideal matchup for the Kings is that Buffalo ranks dead last in the league in goals per game. Now having the fewest number of points and worst goal differential in the Eastern Conference makes them an ideal opponent for pretty much anyone. But especially for the Kings, who rank 2nd in the league in goals allowed. They are also 5th best in penalty killing. I suspect that following an admittedly "rough patch," goalie Jonathan Quick is going to turn things around. Also, Ottawa may have dealt Buffalo another blow in addition to the result Thursday night. The Senators and Kings made a trade at the deadline w/ defenseman Dion Phaneuf coming to the City of Angels. Phaneuf's impact was immediately felt vs. Pittsburgh (scored team's lone goal) and that should carry over to today. 8* Los Angeles

8* Carolina (7:35 ET): I'll continue to ride this "Carolina train" as there's that one key metric which indicates this team is more than capable of making a strong second half run. The metric I speak of is shot differential as the 'Canes are tops in the league in this department at +5.1 per game. No other team is higher than +3.3 and only nine others are above +2. Why I believe this metric to be key is pretty simple. When you're consistently outshooting your opponent, theoretically, you should be outscoring them as well. That scenario certainly didn't play out last night in a 5-2 loss to the Devils, whom they outshot 29-22. But the three previous games (all wins), it did and those were all home games. Carolina is back on home ice tonight and I'll take them.

Speaking of statistics, the team that the Hurricanes will face tonight has one of the more interesting "splits" in the entire league. No one denies the Islanders' ability to score goals as they average 3.3 per game (4th most), but they are also dead last in the league in goals allowed at 3.6 per game. Giving up the most goals in the league isn't exactly conducive to making the postseason. I feel like I've "beaten a dead horse" when it comes to how tight a race it is in the Metropolitan Division right now. Five of the eight times will likely make the playoffs, but beyond Washington and Pittsburgh, it's anyone's guess as to who the other three will be. When you start breaking down individual teams' resumes, it becomes apparent that there's a case to be made for upward trajectory for the Canes, while the opposite is true for the Isles. 

I was on Carolina last Friday and Saturday as they beat Colorado and Vancouver here at home. They added another win Tuesday, blowing out the Kings 7-3. Last night, goaltending was the issue w/ Scott Darling allowing five goals on just 22 shots. Thankfully, it will be Cam Ward between the pipes tonight. Ward has been the much better of the two Carolina goalies this season and has a .922 save percentage his L4 starts. I should probably mention that the Islanders also played last night and it was a RARE shutout victory for them, 3-0 over the Rangers. It was their 1st shutout win of the season! However, that shutout came in spite of FIFTY shots allowed! What could Jaroslav Halak possibly have left in the tank should he go again tonight? Backup Thomas Greiss has an .885 save percentage for the year. Prior to winning last night, the Isles had lost six of eight. 8* Carolina

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Things were looking quite shaky for the two-time defending Stanley Cup Champion Penguins. Coming into the New Year, they'd lost more games than they'd won (19-18-3). But over the last month, they've certainly turned things around, going 13-4-1 the L18 games. They're now in second place in the crowded Metro w/ 68 pts and look like a safe playoff bet. The offense has certainly regained its "lost" form, scoring 4+ goals in six of the last eight games (all wins). But even w/ the recent surge, the Pens can't afford to let their guard down. Not w/ the other six teams (save for 1st place Washington) in the division currently within nine points of them. Fortunate for them is tonight they'll be facing a team that just gave up seven goals in its previous game. 

Out West, the Kings are similarly fighting for their playoff lives. The difference between them and the Pens is that LA finds itself currently on the "outside logging in." Considering the logjam that exists for the two Wild Card spots, finishing in the top three in the Pacific would certainly be in the Kings' best interest. Right now, they are one point behind Calgary for that coveted third place position. So this game definitely means a lot to them as well. Only problem is they arrive in the Steel City in poor form. I alluded to them giving up seven goals in the previous game; that was against a Carolina team hardly known for goal scoring. Even worse is that it was Jonathan Quick starting in goal for them that game. (He was chased after allowing four goals on 20 shots). Quick's save percentage his L4 starts is now .894, a troubling sign considering the team just allowed 41 shots to the Hurricanes. 

While this is an interesting battle of the league's top power play against one of the top penalty killing units, home ice provides a distinct advantage here for the Penguins. They have won nine in a row here at PPG Paints Arena, outscoring the opposition 47-25. That's an average of more than five goals per game! The Kings have allowed 11 goals the L2 games and this is their 4th straight on the road of what will be a seven-game trip. They are only 7-17 SU when facing teams w/ a winning record this year and that includes a 3-1 loss (at home) to Pittsburgh last month. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Vancouver (10:05 ET): You won't find the Canucks favored on the money line all that often, especially w/ the backing of what appears to be "sharp money." But such is the case Wednesday as they welcome Florida to B.C.. I do believe that this is the longest road trip in the league - for any team - though I suppose the Panthers have the "benefit" of having played in Edmonton Monday night. They won there 7-5, their fifth win in the past six games. However, as you can tell from the score, it was a wild one. The Panthers scored three times on the power play, odd seeing as that group is ranked #22 in the league, and goalie James Reimer wasn't exactly "lights out" in his return from injury. This has been a below average team for much of the season, so I expect them to start regressing soon. As in tonight. 

Vancouver is also off a high-scoring victory. The difference here through is they didn't give up any goals Sunday in an impressive 6-0 shutout at Dallas. The fact they did that on the road makes the win all the more impressive. Now those six goals are equal to the number they'd scored during the entirety of a four-game losing streak that preceded the win. They too have been below average much of the year, but I suspect Sunday's win is going to give the team some confidence moving forward. The call-up of Reid Boucher is something to monitor as he scored twice against Dallas. When playing w/ exactly two days of rest this season, Vancouver is 6-3 SU.

Now these two teams did just meet last week in Miami and it was the Panthers prevailing 3-1. They did so w/ a 40-27 edge in shots, but it was rookie Harri Sateri in goal that night and he's since been displaced by Reimer and the soon to be returning Roberto Luongo. A problem Florida has dealt w/ all season is that they simply give up too many shots on goal. Only the Islanders allow more per game. That will catch up w/ you. Lately, they've kept the number down, but be wary of that 7-5 win they are coming off of as this season has seen them go just 3-9 SU if they won their previous game by two or more goals. 10* Vancouver

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Stop me when you've heard me say this before - the Metro is the deeper of the two divisions in the Eastern Conference and will send five teams to the playoffs. We just don't know which five. Right now, both Washington and Pittsburgh look like solid bets. But that still leaves six teams and just three spots. Philadelphia is emerging as a possible third "lock," thanks to a four-game win streak that has them w/ 65 points. Behind the Flyers, the other five teams are separated by just three points. New Jersey has fallen "back to the pack" by virtue of a four-game losing streak. So we have two teams trending in very different directions tonight. I'll stick w/ the hot one that's on home ice.

Before the current respective streaks began, the Devils beat the Flyers, 4-3, back on Feb 1st. But that was in New Jersey and they were obviously playing much better at the time. The Devils would win their next game as well, 3-1 over Pittsburgh, again at home. But ever since, they've gone into freefall mode, dropping four in a row and giving up 19 goals in the process. That's their most goals allowed during any four game stretch of the season. This is no coincidence as Corey Schneider is out w/ a groin injury. Keith Kinkaid has since spent the majority of time between the pipes and has a poor .874 save percentage his L4 starts. The last time he was in goal, he faced 50 shots in a 6-1 loss at Columbus. While you'd like to think Kinkaid will improve, the truth is his save percentage for the year is only .891 (20 starts). Eddie Lack was no better on Sunday in his 1st start w/ the team, allowing five goals on 27 shots in a home loss to the Bruins.

Meanwhile, the Flyers are off a very impressive win as they went to Vegas and came out ahead 4-1. That was only the fourth regulation loss at home for the Golden Knights this season. Going back to December 4th, Philly is now 20-8-2 its L30 games. Interesting is that they too are dealing w/ an injury in goal as Brian Elliott has been out w/ a lower body injury. But the difference between them and the Devils is that backup Michael Neuvirth has been able to come in and get the job done. He stopped 38 of 39 shots in Vegas and it should be noted the Flyers won that game despite just 18 shots on goal. 8* Philadelphia

8* Carolina (8:05 ET): The Hurricanes came through for me last night and I'll go w/ them again here, even in the second night of a back to back. Both games at home obviously makes this a slightly more favorable situation as do the opponents. Last night was a visit from lowly Vancouver, who put up little fight in a 4-1 final. It was a 3-0 game at the end of the 1st period and the 'Canes limited their opponent to just 22 shots for the game. Tonight, they face a Colorado club that was the league's worst last season, only to have a surprising resurgence in 2017-18. But the Avs are starting to show signs of regression, namely a 6-1 loss at St. Louis Thursday, which was their fifth loss in the last seven games. 

The large edge in shots on goal last night is nothing new for Carolina. I wrote about this in yday's analysis, but will reiterate that they lead the league in shot per game differential, which I believe to be a key metric. That league-leading number is now +4.9 per game. The next best team is Pittsburgh (+3.6) and only six other teams are +2.0 or better. It's been shaky goaltending that has betrayed this team this season (also wrote about this in yday's analysis), but last night saw HC Bill Peters "roll the dice" w/ backup Scott Darling and it paid off. Now, the team is likely to go w/ #1 goalie Cam Ward, who has a .947 save percentage his L4 starts. This is the second-to-last game of a season-high eight-game homestand for the 'Canes and somewhat of a "must win" considering their current position in the Eastern Conference (one point back of 2nd Wild Card) and the fact they lost the first five games of the homestand.

Colorado has not been able to muster much offense recently, which probably can be tied to the loss of center Nathan MacKinnon. The Avs are a pretty banged up team right now. They too are sitting just one win outside the playoff picture in the Western Conference. The road has not always been kind to the Avs this year as they are 10-13-3 overall and have just one regulation win since 1.14. They allow 3.4 goals per game away from home. Now let's talk about the first meeting of the year between these teams, which somehow Carolina lost 5-3 despite a 60-27 (!) edge in shots on goal. That is not a misprint. 'Canes get their revenge. 8* Carolina

8* Carolina (7:35 ET): Given the current "lay of the land" in the Eastern Conference, this is a virtual "must win" for the Hurricanes, who are only one point back of the final Wild Card spot. Five teams from the Metro figure to make the playoffs (top three are guaranteed), but w/ all eight teams more than alive, losing streaks need to be avoided. The 'Canes come into Friday having dropped three in a row. Fortunately for them, two other teams in the division (Blue Jackets, Islanders) have lost four in a row. A visit from lowly Vancouver should cure what ails the 'Canes as the Canucks have also lost three straight, but the difference here is that the visitors have been "down for the count" this entire season. Give me the home team. 

There is at least one key metric that suggests Carolina could make a late season run. They continue to post the league's best shot per game differential at +4.8. The next closest team is Pittsburgh (+3.6) and there are only four others above +2.0. Ironically enough, they did NOT outshoot their previous opponent, that being Philadelphia, who beat them 2-1 in overtime on Tuesday. But that brings up an issue the Hurricanes have had all season and that's losing in extra time. Their nine OT/shootout losses are tied for second most in the league. Turn some of those into wins and all of a sudden this is probably a playoff team, easy. Something else to consider is the goaltending. Hurricanes' goalies have combined for an .898 save percentage, which is 4th lowest in the league. Vancouver isn't much better though and I'm hoping a visit from the 26th ranked team in goals per game scored would also be a welcome reprieve.

Vancouver had to play last night, and lost, 5-2 in Tampa Bay. So in addition to being a lousy team, the situation tonight is not great. Anders Nilsson started in goal last night, so that likely means it will be Jacob Markstrom tonight. Carolina is due for an offensive breakout after being held to two goals or fewer each of the L5 games. During that time, opposing goaltenders have posted a somewhat ridiculous .957 save percentage against them. It's especially ridiculous when you consider all five games have been played here in Raleigh! For the season, Markstrom's save percentage is only .908. 8* Carolina

10* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): Playing against lowly Buffalo at home will generally give you a decent price and that's the case here w/ the Islanders, who are in desperate need of two points considering the current lay of the land in the Metro. As we've been saying for month now, the Metro is more than likely to send five teams to the playoffs this season due to getting both Wild Cards. Entering play today, the Islanders are tied w/ Columbus for the final WC spot at 58 pts. A win here could move them into the top WC spot, depending on what happens w/ Philadelphia. Buffalo is one of the few teams in the Eastern Conference where the playoffs aren't a realistic possibility. They are last in points, goal differential and have lost four in a row. Playing against them at this price seems like a "no brainer." 

The Islanders have won only three times in the last nine games. They've now had two days off since losing to Nashville, 5-4, in overtime. Though they were outshot pretty severely (47-28!), the Isles were in position to win the game w/ a minute to go in regulation. That kind of high score has become all too common for the Isles as they are 3rd in the league in goals per game, but dead last (31st) in goals allowed. Fortunately for them, tonight presents an ideal matchup. The Sabres also rank near the bottom of the league in goals allowed per game (28th), but are also dead last in scoring themselves. Simply put, this is a game where the Isles' offense can carry them.

New York has scored four times in B2B games. As for Buffalo, they have scored just six goals total during a four-game losing streak. After being shutout by St. Louis, 1-0 on Saturday, they lost 4-3 here at home to Anaheim on Tuesday. Three goals is more than what we usually see from this team and home ice advantage has been virtually non-existent. Not only are the Sabres just 6-15-4 at the KeyBank Center; they're being outscored here by an average of 1.2 goals per game! The entirety of the current four-game losing streak has come here at home. They did at least earn a "losers point" (lost in OT) vs. the Ducks, but it was also the 1st time on this homestand they scored more than two goals. This should be a rewarding trip upstate for the Islanders, who are 8-4 SU this season when playing w/ two days recent. They're also 2-0 YTD vs. the Sabres. 10* NY Islanders

9* NY Rangers (8:05 ET): For most of this season, Tampa Bay has been considered the top team. Vegas has clearly been the best "story." But Boston is also making a case that it too deserves to be mentioned among the NHL's elite. Only three teams (TB, Vegas, Winnipeg) have more points and only the Lightning have a better goal differential. The Bruins come into tonight riding a three-game win streak and are 8-1 the last nine games. All eight wins have come in regulation w/ the lone setback coming in the first game back after the All-Star Break. Many of the wins, including last night (3-2 at Detroit) have come on the road. But very few of those have been against quality opponents.

The Rangers have been trending in the exact opposite direction of the Bruins. They've lost three straight as well as six of their last seven. As a result, they have fallen to the bottom of the Metro. But all hope is not lost here in MSG. The Blueshirts might be in last in their division, but they are only three points out of the final playoff spot. The Metropolitan has been uber tough this season and we've seen teams rise and fall all season long. Also, only one of those six losses has come at home where the Rangers are still 17-9-3 for the year. Tonight marks a great "buy low" opportunity, in my opinion. 

 I can't imagine the recent play of veteran Henrik Lundqvist isn't going to improve - drastically - moving forward. The longtime Rangers' netminder has an .852 save percentage his L4 starts. Henrik the Great is 27-12-2 all-time in 41 career starts vs. Boston and the Rangers have won seven of the last eight head to head meetings overall (including all four here in MSG). This being the second night of a back to back for the Bruins gives the Rangers a huge break as they are likely to avoid Tuukka Rask, who has a .944 save percentage in his L4 outings. Boston is only 3-5 SU in the second game of a back to back to begin with, so it's a spot where they usually struggle. Interestingly enough, they have NOT had to play on consecutive days at any point during the current 8-1 surge. Meanwhile, over the last three seasons, the Rangers are 10-2 SU when coming into a game on a losing streak of three or more games. 9* NY Rangers

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): This is a key game in the Central, which is shaping up to be the tighest divisional race in the sport. Every team can claim a positive goal differential and the two points available here have become all the more critical considering both Nashville and Dallas won last night. St. Louis currently sits in the "coveted" third position, four points back of co-leaders Winnipeg and Nashville. While it's likely that the Central will send at least four teams to the playoffs, the Blues are only one point ahead of the Stars. After that, it's Minnesota, who as of right now would be the final Wild Card entrant in the Western Conference (61 points). The problem here for the Wild though is that this is a road game (and we saw what happened in their last one).

Everything you could say about the importance of this game to the Wild would have applied to their last one as well. They were in Dallas Saturday and lost 6-1. While a very good team on home ice (18-4-4 record), the Wild are just 10-15-1 SU on the road. That's obviously a big disparity. The big key is the level of play between the pipes. Devan Dubnyk, the team's #1 goalie who will likely start tonight, sees his save percentage dip down to .898 away from home. He had to come in relief Saturday, but still allowed two goals on the nine shots he faced. Minnesota is allowing slightly more shots per game on the road compared to at home, but that still can't fully "explain away" the fact they are also allowing 3.7 goals per game on the road compared to 2.08 at home (which is the LOWEST average in the league!). Conversely, the number of gpg they allow on the road is the second HIGHEST in the league!

So, is this one as easy as chalking things up to a home ice advantage for the Blues. Probably, yes. There's also the goaltending as well. St. Louis ranks third in the league in number of goals allowed per game and has given up one or fewer in four of its last five games overall. Sure, they've scored only one goal in B2B games themselves (did shutout Buffalo on Saturday). But I fully anticipate the offense "picking up" here. Either option in goal - Jake Allen or Carter Hutton - would be fine. Then there is the matter of St. Lous having Minnesota's number. They eliminated them from the playoffs (in 5 games) LY and have picked up at least a point in 18 of the previous 20 meetings. 8* St. Louis

8* Over Lightning/Oilers (9:05 ET): If this seems like a bit of "deja vu," well, I did just cash an Over w/ the Lightning involved Saturday night as they defeated Vancouver by a score of 4-2. The goal which put the game Over came late in the third period via the power play. However, that close call aside, it cannot be discounted that TB is the highest scoring team in the league at 3.6 goals per game. They dragged the #25 team in gpg to an Over, thus I believe they'll be able to do the same w/ a more dangerous Oilers club. Edmonton has to be considered the biggest disappointment in the league this season as their fans were thinking about a return to glory and Lord Stanley's Cup. Instead, the team sits well outside the playoff picture w/ only 48 pts. Take the Over.

Edmonton may rank only 22nd in scoring, but it's not for a lack of chances as they are tied for third in the league w/ 34.2 shots per game. They've been consistently victimized by some superior goaltending and having to likely face Andrei Vasilevskiy tonight seems like "rubbing it in." Vasilevskiy is making his case to be the Vezina Trophy winner for 2018 as he comes in w/ a .930 save percentage and 2.22 goals against average for the season, both of which are top five. However, his current pace will be awfully difficult to maintain as he's stopped 149 of the last 156 shots he's faced. Edmonton has scored three or more goals in five of its last six games, so do not be surprised if they are able to have some success against Vasilevskiy. 

Meanwhile, I don't anticipate any issues for the TB offense. As I already stated, they are #1 in the league in scoring. They've tallied four or more goals in four of the last five games and 11 total in the last two. They'll face Cam Talbot, who is coming off arguably the worst month of his career w/ a 3.57 GAA and .890 save percentage. He was out sick for the last game, a 4-3 loss to Colorado, and this is hardly the opponent you want to be facing right now. Each of the Oilers last two games were 4-3 finals as they also beat rival Calgary before the break. This is only their second game since All-Star Weekend, so the offense will be fresh as well. TB is now 16-9 Over after a game in which they scored 4+ goals. 8* Over Lightning/Oilers

8* Montreal (1:05 ET): Recently, it seems as if I've spent ample time discussing the "great divide" that exists in the NHL's Atlantic Division. The top three (in every division) are guaranteed playoff sports and in the case of the Atlantic, it's been well-known (for awhile) who those three will be (Tampa Bay, Boston, Toronto). The rest of the division has essentially been relegated to "also-ran" status as not only have they fallen well behind the top three, but the field is unlikely to catch anyone from the Metropolitan for a Wild Card spot either. Of the two teams here, Montreal can at least cling to some faint hope that a second half run would land them in the playoffs. Ottawa is by just about any objective metric the third worst team in the league. I'll ride with the Habs at home!

Now I should point out that the Senators have won two straight. They beat Philadelphia last night, 4-3. But that's all the more reason to bet against them here. Not only have the Sens not won three in a row since sweeping a trip through Western Canada in October, they played last night and for a second straight time needed extra time to achieve victory. It was a 4-3 win at Philadelphia Friday w/ the game going to a shootout. The Sens actually blew a 3-1 lead, but were outshot and it took 12 players (total) to finally get a goal in the SO. Prior to the win, they were tied for the fewest number of road wins in the league. Therefore, it's really tough to believe they're going to win B2B days away from home. Prior to winning two straight, the Sens had lost six in a row and they're still averaging less than two goals per game their last five contests.

Montreal snapped its own losing streak last night w/ a 5-2 win over Anaheim. The Ducks are the other team Ottawa has beaten in its two-game win streak. But unlike the Senators, no overtime was required for the Canadiens. The Habs were outshot pretty badly Saturday, 45-29, but the fact they got an incredibly strong effort from backup Antii Niemi (43 saves) is huge. Not only did they get the two points, but today they can start a fresh Carey Price, who has a .936 save percentage against division foes this year. The Habs' power play, which ranks ninth in the league, scored three times yesterday and will be up against the 28th ranked PK here. 8* Montreal

8* Florida (7:05 ET): The Red Wings got one over on me last night by beating Carolina, 4-1. But I don't see this subpar club winning B2B road games, so a fade in this spot is the natural reaction. They'll play Florida, a team that did just win B2B road games, beating the Islanders and Buffalo while scoring eight goals in the process. As those who have been following my NHL plays throughout the season already know, I feel the Red Wings have been plenty fortunate these L2 seasons. That may seem odd to say given they didn't make the playoffs last season nor are they likely to this year. (This after a record setting streak of postseason appearances). But a 13-1 SU record in shootouts has "propped them up" and the reality is things should have gone much worse for them.

\Florida enters the day two points (one win) back of Detroit for fourth place in the Atlantic. However, there's a huge gap (of 15 points) between third and fourth in the division and only the top three are guaranteed playoff spots. Therefore, it's the Wild Card that should be on both teams' minds moving forward. There's a lot of teams to jump, but right now 56 pts is the number for the final WC in the Eastern Conference (Detroit has 50, Florida 48). So that is not necessarily out of reach. A big key here for the Panthers will be to get an early lead. The team is a perfect 13-0 SU this season when leading after two periods. Given that Detroit is playing its second game in as many nights, I see it being logical to expect Florida to take control early. 

The respective goaltending situations are something worth monitoring here. The Panthers are riding the glove of 28-year old rookie Harri Sateri right now. After spending 10 years in the minors, Sateri has finally got his chance at the NHL level due to injuries to Florida's top two netminders, Roberto Luongo and James Reimer. He's made the most of it, stopping 62 of 65 shots on goal. As for Detroit, they've gote a decision to make tonight as Petr Mrazek was between the pipes last night and made 36 saves. He's started three of the last four games, so a night off may have to be given. Jimmy Howard, the long-time starter here, is no longer what he once was. His save percentage in his L4 starts is just .861. 8* Florida

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Not to continuously beat a "dead horse," but the Metropolitan really is a deep and interesting division this season. It's pretty clear that the division will be sending five teams to the playoffs. But outside of first place Washington, who will the other four be? We've currently got seven teams separated by just five points in the standings. The hottest of the bunch is Pittsburgh, who has won three straight to move into third place. The Pens are also 8-2 their L10 games. Tonight, they look to wrap up a perfect homestand with a visit from the aforementioned Caps. This is a really big game for the defending Stanley Cup Champs and one I believe they'll win. They've won 8 of the last 11 times hosting Washington.

Getting this one on home ice is a pretty big deal for the Pens. They've won six in a row at home, tying a season-best streak. The last two games have seen them score 11 goals and over the course of the six-game win streak, they've outscored the opposition by greater than a 2:1 margin at 29-14. Over a quarter of their remaining games will be played w/o rest, so taking advantage of the day off here is paramount. I would anticipate this veteran outfit "turning it on" in February. Their shot per game differential is one of the best in the league, indicating better fortune should be forthcoming. They also have the league's top power play at 26.7%. I just can't see opposing goaltenders continuing to maintain a .942 even strength save percentage against the Pens. 

Though they currently have a five-point edge on the field, the Caps are by no means dominating their division. In fact, they are just 9-4-3 against the rest of the Metro (Pittsburgh is 10-4 SU). Like Pittsburgh, the Caps came out of the All-Star Break and won, 5-3 over Philadelphia. But something certainly worth noting is Washington has a losing road record while being outshot and outscored. Pittsburgh's goals per game average jumps to 3.5 at home, which is pretty significant (about a full goal more per game) compared to what they average on the road. The Caps' penalty killing unit (ranked 17th) is below average, so the chances of being exploited by the Pens' top-ranked PP unit are pretty strong here. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Carolina (7:05 ET): The Hurricanes picked up two crucial points last night by shutting out Montreal, 2-0, here at home. It was their third consecutive win, but that only leaves them tied for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. The Metro is likely to send five teams into the playoffs this year, and outside of Washington, it's anybody's guess as to who the other four will be. Currently, you have seven teams separated by just five points! Meanwhile, over in the Atlantic, Detroit is one of several teams already relegated to "also-ran" status. That division is a lot clearer than the Metro right now as you have three teams (TB, Boston and Toronto) that are almost assuredly playoff-bound while the rest are not.  

So we've established that Carolina has every reason to be the more motivated side Friday night. They should also be pretty confident knowing that they just beat the Red Wings, in Detroit, 10 days ago. This is a really critical stretch for the 'Canes as well. They'll be playing their next six and nine of the next 10 games at home where they are now 12-7-4 for the year. Something in Carolina's favor for this stretch is that they average an impressive 36.4 shots per game on home ice. So they should get plenty of scoring chances here. As for the other side of the ledger, Detroit is just 28th in goals per game. Carolina may have to turn to Scott Darling in goal tonight (Cam Ward made 27 saves last night), but should be fine either way.  

I keep waiting for the Red Wings to lose a shootout. They won another one last night, at home over San Jose, to move to 13-1 in SO's since the start of last season. That's a record that seems totally unsustainable. If not for that record, one has to wonder just how bad their overall won-loss record would look over that time. Now they did outshoot the Sharks, pretty significantly, last night. But only once in the previous six games have they topped two goals in regulation. All but one of those games were played in the Motor City. I just don't think the Red Wings are very good while Carolina is actually #1 in the league in shot per game differential (key metric!). 8* Carolina

10* Buffalo (7:05 ET): The Sabres, by just about any objective measure, should be considered the weakest team in the entire Eastern Conference. They have the fewest points (37) and worst goal differential (-51), though Ottawa is "closing in" in both regards. So, it's certainly a bit "eye opening" to find them at essentially "even money" on the ML tonight. Of course, that must mean they're at home (they are!) and the opponent must be pretty weak as well (they are!). Florida enters this game as another "also-ran" in the Atlantic Division, and had dropped three straight before beating the Islanders, 4-1, on Tuesday. I don't see them winning B2B road games as - overall - they're just 9-17 SU away from South Beach this season. 

Meanwhile, Buffalo had actually won three in a row before losing its last game. The entirety of that three-game win streak came in Western Canada as they swept a trip through Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, even beating the final two - both - in shutout fashion. But then they returned home on Tuesday and lost to the Devils 3-1. There's been no real home ice advantage to speak of for the Sabres as they're just 6-13-3 here and being outscored by over a goal per game. That being said, this isn't a bad matchup w/ it being their second straight here while Florida is in the second of B2B roadies. Listening to the players, it seems as if there's a real emphasis being placed on this game. "We want to bring that hockey that we showed we can play out west to this arena and for our fans," said Jake McCabe. There have been line changes, hinted at in practice, as well.

Florida has some goaltending issues right now, namely in terms of depth. Both Roberto Luongo and James Reimer are out due to injury. That leaves 28-year old rookie Harri Sateri as the only real option between the pipes. Sateri performed admirably in picking up his 1st career win Tuesday night, making 32 saves, but this is a goaltender w/ just four career starts and an .899 save percentage. The Panthers are 1-8 SU this season following a win by 2+ goals. Another thing to consider is the # of shots they tend to allow (36.6 L5 games), the highest number in the league this season. Sabres goalie Robin Lehner is in good enough form as he was the one that posted both shutouts Western Canada. 10* Buffalo

8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): Now that Colorado's win streak has ended (at 10 games), it's probably time for them to start "giving some back." No one expected the Avs to be playoff contenders this year, not after setting records for futility last season w/ only 48 points and a -112 goal differential. Through just 47 games, they already have more points this season and would actually be a playoff team if the regular season were to end today. But the regular season obviously does not end today and I expect the Avs to fade in the second half. Tonight, they face one of the teams above them in the rugged Central Division, that being St. Louis, who is coming off just its third shutout victory of the season. Go with the home team here.

A major reason for Colorado's recent success is that they were playing a lot of home games. They did win in Toronto to start the week, but that was one of just two wins away from home during the 10-game streak. The schedule caught up w/ them Tuesday as they finally lost, 4-2 in Montreal, in what was the second game of a back to back. They were outshot, 40-22. After playing 9 of 10 on home ice, the Avs' next four games will all be on the road as will six of the next seven. They've been outscored on the road so far, by about a half goal per game (pretty significant margin). Before the current trip began, no team in the league had played fewer road games. Expect goalie Jonathan Bernier to come back "down to Earth" soon as well.

Blues' HC Mike Yeo has been using an unconventional lineup of late w/ 11 forwards and seven defensemen in the rotation. It certainly worked Tuesday in the 3-0 shutout of the Senators where they enjoyed a 41-25 edge in shots. In three of the four prior games, the team has allowed one goal or fewer. The exception came in a 5-2 home loss, to Arizona of all opponents. The Blues have definitely had the Avs' number the past several seasons, going 14-3-3 the L20 head to head matchups. The team ranks 4th in goals per game, which is obviously very impressive. As of press time, Yeo has not yet determined who will be starting between the pipes, but it's likely to be the red hot Carter Hutton, who has a .944 save percentage his L4 starts. 8* St. Louis

8* Calgary (10:05 ET): Things have gotten interesting in the Pacific w/ the Flames climbing up into the top three. The team they passed, the Kings, is the one they'll host Wednesday. Of the 15 teams in the Western Conference, only three don't really have a realistic path to the postseason. It is an incredibly thin line between those in playoff position and those that are not. While Calgary would be in if the season ended yday, a loss here would have them out. The Wild Card race in the Western Conference is going to be incredibly competitive. The Flames have dropped B2B home games, but prior to that had won seven in a row. I see them regaining their previous form tonight on home ice.

Meanwhile, the Kings are not in a good way. They've dropped seven of eight including an ugly one last night, 6-2 in Vancouver. They no longer are #1 in the league in goals allowed after Tuesday (now #2), though they still have the top PK unit. However, a key here will be who is in goal. Jonathan Quick was between the pipes again last night (for a 4th straight game, which includes a back to back), but does the team dare start him again here? His save percentage over those last four starts is just .885. The only other option is Darcy Kuemper. The team hasn't won w/ him in goal since December 7th. Last night, the Kings fell behind Vancouver 4-1, which prompted Quick to be pulled in favor of Kuemper. Even the top ranked PK unit gave up three goals. Again, this was against Vancouver, one of the worst teams in the league. 

Ironically, of these two teams, it has been Calgary that's been better on the goals allowed side of the ledger lately. They've allowed two goals or fewer in seven consecutive games. They now rank 8th in the league in goals allowed per game, not far behind LA. The offense has betrayed Calgary the L2 games as they've managed just two goals. But both losses occurred past regulation, one in OT and one in a shootout. During the seven-game win streak, the Flames scored at least three regulation goals six times. Likely starting in goal tonight will be Mike Smith and he has an other-worldly .965 save percentage his L4 starts. The Kings have been outscored 11-1 in the first period the last seven games. 8* Calgary

8* Vegas (10:05 ET): Will Columbus be the latest victim of the so-called "Vegas flu?" One thing is for certain and that's visiting teams have not fared well in Sin City in this first season of professional hockey on the strip, winning just four times in 22 tries and just two of those victories occurred in regulation. The Golden Knights continue to be THE story in the league this year as they lead the Pacific Division w/ 66 points and a YTD goal differential of +34 (3rd best) indicates that there's nothing fluky about it. Columbus is treading water in the Metro right now as their 55 pts have them in a precarious third place position (would be guaranteed a playoff spot if they finish there). But the Blue Jackets have also been outscored over the course of the season.

Tonight marks Vegas' return home after a 10-day road trip through the Southeast. They split four games, winning the last one, 5-1 over Carolina on Sunday. In three of the four games, they allowed just one goal (shutout in one of the two losses). So there's no real issue on that side of the ledger as goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has posted a .946 save percentage for the year and will very likely be back between the pipes this evening. Nor is there any real issue on the offensive end where the team ranks third in the league in goals per game. They are 14-8 SU after scoring 4+ goals their last time out and average 3.6 per game at home. 

Columbus is well-rested as they've been off since Thursday when they beat Dallas by a 2-1 count. But prior to that, they'd lost B2B games - to Vancouver and Buffalo no less. Scoring-wise, it looks to be a struggle for the Blue Jackets here as I seriously doubt they'll be able to "keep up" w/ the Golden Knights. The Jackets rank 28th in the league in goals per game and dead last (31st) on the power play (just 13.3 percent). That win over the Stars came on home ice and required a shootout. Their L3 wins have all come beyond regulation and they have just ONE regulation win since X-Mas! Overall, they're just 7-8-2 their L17 games. You have to go all the way back to December 29th to find the last time Columbus scored more than two goals in regulation. 8* Vegas

analysis soon8* Toronto (7:05 ET): Theoretically, Maple Leafs' fans should be quite happy right now. We're into the second year of what has been a renaissance for this long-suffering franchise and another playoff berth is all but assured given the gap between the top three in the Atlantic (a group they are counted among) and the field. Also, the team is off a thrilling 4-3 victory over provincial rival Ottawa on Saturday. But the pending free agency of star Auston Matthews (at the end of NEXT season) casts somewhat of a cloud over this franchise and there's already been talks of trading him in anticipation of a possible departure. That's crazy. Still, I was impressed by the way they were able to come from behind Saturday (snapped 4-game losing streak) and win. I like them tonight. 

Perhaps even crazier than the Matthews' rumors is the fact the Colorado Avalanche come into this game riding a 9-game win streak. You have to remember that this team set records for ineptitude last season w/ only 48 points and a -112 goal differential, both easily league worsts. Incredibly, they've made the leap to playoff contender in just one year's time and haven't even trailed (at any point!) during the current win streak, which has seen them beat nine potential playoff teams (outscored them 37-15)! They've even been w/o their #1 goaltender, Semon Varlamov, since January 2nd! However, all but one of those wins has come at home. The Avs have played a league-low 19 road games so far and are just 8-9-2 in them. Jonathan Bernier continues to play out of his mind between the pipes, but how long can that possibly last? The Avs continue to give up a high number of shots and that could mean trouble against a high-scoring outfit like the Leafs. 

Having already lost four in a row, Toronto found itself down 3-1 after two periods Saturday vs. Ottawa. But they stormed back w/ a three-goal third period and that can certainly create some "momentum" (hate that word!). The Leafs have been a little unfortunate of late in that opposing goalies have posted a .933 save percentage against them the L5 games. Compare that to a .898 save percentage against them for the season. Combined w/ Colorado allowing so many shots, I expect the home team to break out offensively in this battle of top seven offenses and grab the two points. 8* Toronto

8* Washington (12:35 ET): Despite dropping B2B games, the Capitals have reclaimed their usual place atop the Metropolitan pecking order. However, if they'd like to maintain the first place stature, then winning today would probably be a "good idea." They host division rival Philadelphia, who has won two straight and 7 of 10. The Flyers are just trying to get into the playoff picture as they are currently in sixth in the Metro, but just a single point out of the Wild Card. Something else to consider here is that the Caps have to have revenge on their minds from an ugly 8-2 loss they took in the City of Brotherly Love, back in October. I'm on the home favorite here as I can't seem them losing three in a row.

A key here is the Flyers are playing the 2nd night of a back to back. They won at home (over New Jersey) yday afternoon by a score of 3-1. Can they really beat the top two teams in the Metro, though? In consecutive days, no less? Scoring has not been an issue for Philly of late as they've totaled 28 goals the last seven games, an average of exactly 4.0 gpg. But I see that number as being due for a sharp decrease. First off, they are only 14th for the season in goals per game. Yesterday, they scored all three goals in a 1st period flurry. That performance is unlikely to be repeated anytime soon. Secondly, today they'll have to face Braden Holtby, who comes in w/ a .932 save percentage for Washington on home ice.

The Caps are already 13-5 SU in revenge spots this season. That 1st meeting saw Philadelphia hold a significant edge in shots on goal (37-23), which I'm guessing will NOT be the case here. Philly also has a dilemma in goal here as Michael Neuvirth has had the hot hand (.951 save percentage), but he's started the L2 games. Would he really get the nod on consecutive days? If not, it will be Brian Elliott, who has an ugly .866 save percentage his L4 starts. Either way, expect Washington to get the two points here as they are 5-1 SU this season when coming off B2B losses. Their lone three-game losing skid came on a road trip around the Christmas holiday when they had to go Arizona-Vegas-New York over a 5-day span. 8* Washington

8* Dallas (1:00 ET): There aren't many great teams in the NHL this season, nor are there many "bad teams." Things are as wide open, in both conferences, as I can ever remember. I'll continue to harp on this fact until it's proven untrue, but today there's a great opportunity to go against one of those few "bad" teams. Buffalo is w/o question the worst team in the Eastern Conference and one of the two worst in the entire league (alongside Arizona). They are dead last in every area (among Eastern Conf teams) and last in the entire league in goals per game (2.3). They're not very good on the other side of the ledger either, ranking 28th in goals allowed at 3.4 per game. This afternoon, they face a Dallas team desperate to maintain its current standing in the brutally tough Central Division. Go against the Sabres.

Dallas has 56 points (Buffalo only has 31) and that has them 4th in the Central. As of today, the Stars would be one of the two Wild Cards in the Western Conference and thus have to face a division winner in the 1st round of the playoffs. Obviously, they'd like to move up at least one spot in the division so that they can be guaranteed a playoff opportunity and not face one of the two division winners. That's very achievable as they are just three points back of Winnipeg and St. Louis, who are tied for second. The Stars have gone 6-3-1 their L10 games, but are off a shootout loss in Columbus Thursday. Today marks the end of a four-game road trip and while fatigue might be a factor, it wasn't when they played w/o rest in Detroit earlier in the week (won 4-2). That's a game I remember because I took them! Despite losing to Columbus Thursday, the Stars had the edge in shots (36-26) and against the Red Wings, the edge was 26-15 in that department. Those numbers are clearly "what you want to see."

As for Buffalo, their numbers are NOT what you want to see. They've won just one game in 2018 (against Columbus ironically). Coming off their week off, they lost to the Rangers 4-3 on Thursday, a game where they wasted a 2 for 4 power play. It's highly unlikely that the Sabres would be that successful again w/ the man advantage considering they are just 30th in the league at 14.0 percent. They are also just 3-16 this season when facing an opponent that has a winning record. Dallas is 26-17-4 overall. 8* Dallas

10* Florida (7:35 ET): The incredible expansion campaign being put forth by Vegas continued last night w/ a 4-1 win at league-best Tampa Bay. The Golden Knights now sit comfortably a top the Pacific Division w/ 63 pts, also the most in the entire Western Conference. The idea of the playoffs running throw Sin City is pretty mind-blowing when you think about it and NOT a good thing for the rest of the field considering the Knights' league best 18-2-2 home record. However, they've been far more fallible on the road where they're just 12-9-1 and that's including last night's win. Tonight marks their third straight road game, in a four-day span. It's also the second of a back to back and therefore I feel this an appropriate time to fade. 

Florida will play host this evening and their season is not going nearly as well as what we're seeing out in Vegas. The Panthers come into this game as losers of four of their previous five, though this is quite the idea spot as they're coming off a week-long break. They haven't played since losing to Calgary, 4-2, here at home last Friday. The Panthers are on the wrong side of a big gap in the Atlantic Division as they're 13 points out of third place and 10 back of the Wild Card in the Eastern Conference. So they'll have to make a run soon, if they want to have any shot at making the playoffs. This was a team that made my list to decline this season and the problem has been they allow far too many shots (most in the league on a per game basis). That has translated into them ranking 27th in goals allowed as well.

These teams met last month, in Vegas, and the Golden Knights dominated (40-18 edge in shots) in a 5-2 victory. I obviously am expecting something quite different in tonight's rematch. The respective scheduling situation greatly favors the Panthers, who are more than rested while fatigue could certainly be a major factor for the Golden Knights. The fact Vegas has had to deal w/ so many injuries makes this season all the more remarkable, but I say everything "catches up w/ them" here. Either they start Marc-Andre Fleury on no rest or have to turn to one of their shaky backup goaltenders. Florida's #1, James Reimer, will be ready to roll (just like the rest of the team). 10* Florida

10* St. Louis (7:35 ET): There simply aren't many "bad" teams per se in the NHL this season (nor are there many dominant ones!), but I'd count Ottawa among those in the dubious group. Only Arizona and Buffalo, clearly the two worst teams, can claim fewer points and a worse goal differential. Therefore, coming off a rare win, the Senators make for prime fade material in this spot as they have to host a strong Blues team. An interesting tidbit here is BOTH teams beat Toronto in their previous game. Ottawa's win over the Maple Leafs came all the way back on 1.10 as the league has been giving extended breaks to all its teams. (St. Louis just won in Toronto two days ago after their own week off.) 

The Blues currently sit third in the ultra-tough Central, a division where only nine points separate last place from first place. It's a two-point gap between them and first place Winnipeg, so obviously a win tonight would be huge. It was a bit of a fortuitous win Tuesday in Toronto as they only were able to tie the game once they pulled the goalie and had an extra attacker in the final minute of regulation. But then again, the only goal they allowed came on a fluky, short-handed breakaway. Otherwise, it was a strong showing from goalie Carter Hutton. More than likely, Jake Allen will get the nod tonight, which is fine considering this team ranks 6th in goals allowed and he's the one that's started the majority of the games. 

Ottawa games have been absurdly high-scoring of late w/ each of the last four seeing at least seven total goals scored. Somewhat surprisingly, three have gone their way. But they still rank 29th in goals allowed and they may have the worst special teams in the league, ranking 28th in both power play percentage and penalty killing. It would take nothing short of a miracle for the Sens to make the playoffs as they are 15 points back of third place (guaranteed playoff spot) in the Atlantic and 12 back of the Wild Card, needing to jump several teams in the process. While the break allowed them to get healthier, Center Jean-Gabriel Pageau is still out. Unless the team "picks it up" in the short-term, they are widely expected to be "sellers" at the trade deadline and that can certainly have an adverse effect on a team's psyche. 10* St. Louis

8* Dallas (7:35 ET): I readily admit that both of these teams made me "eat my words" their respective last times out. Detroit, as a big underdog on the ML, went to Chicago and shutout the Blackhawks 4-0 on Sunday. Dallas went into Boston yday afternoon and won 3-2, in overtime. Looking at the grand scheme of things here, I think you have to side w/ the Stars here. They are in the mix for a playoff spot (would be a Wild Card) in the very tightly contested Western Conference. Detroit faces a cavernous gap to get into the top three in the Atlantic Division and even a Wild Card in the Eastern Conference seems like a "fool's errand" at this point.

The Red Wings have only 15 regulation wins this year. That's fourth fewest in the entire league w/ only the bottom three teams (point-wise) having fewer. (Those would be Ottawa, Buffalo and Arizona). I've said it before and I'll say it again. This once proud franchise is actually fortunate that things haven't been even worse the last two seasons. Last year's fall would have been even greater if not for a ridiculously fortunate 9-0 SU record in shootouts. They're now 12-1 in SO's the L2 seasons, something that won't be sustained. (I keep waiting for them to lose a couple!). Saturday marked just their 2nd shutout of the season. Goalie Jimmy Howard led the way w/ 27 saves, but I hardly expect him to maintain his .946 save percentage from his previous four starts. 

In yday's analysis, I mentioned how Dallas hasn't been the same team on the road this year, so it may seem a little odd that I'd come back w/ them in this spot. However, they appear to have a massive edge offensively in this particular matchup (13th in goals per game, Red Wings rank 26th) and they had no problem beating Detroit down in Dallas earlier this year, 4-2. Ben Bishop saw only 25 shots that game and has played well of late (.930 save percentage L4 starts). Note that the Stars did lead Boston 2-0 yday before being taken into overtime. 8* Dallas

8* Boston (1:05 ET): Playoff hopefuls from each conference meet Monday in Beantown. The Bruins have surged into second place in the Atlantic by going 8-0-2 their L10, trailing only league-best Tampa Bay in that division. A 1st rd playoff matchup w/ Toronto almost seems inevitable at this point, but first they must concern themselves w/ hosting a Dallas club fighting for its own position in the rugged Central. The Stars enter the day w/ 51 pts, good enough for 5th in their own division, a spot that would enable them to be the last playoff entrant in the Western Conference. However, key here is venue. The Stars are right up there, among the very best in the league in scoring differential at home. But, on the road, they're only 8-11-2 and averaging just 2.5 goals per game. Again, this game is in Boston ;)

The Bruins have suffered only five regulation defeats on home ice all year and are 14-5-3 overall at the TD North Bank Garden. The team has gone 18-3-3 its last 24 games, period. Most recently, they beat Montreal (4-3) in a shootout on Saturday. With Tuukka Rask in goal, they've gone 12-0-2 their L14 and he is expected to start today. Versus Dallas, Rask's all-time save percentage in .924. Note that if backup Anton Khudobin goes, that's okay too as he has a .940 career save percentage vs. Dallas. This Bruins team not only ranks in the Top 10 in both goals scored and allowed, but also on the power play and penalty killing. They have truly emerged as one of the more "complete" teams in the league right now.

The Stars took a bad loss on Saturday, losing at home to Colorado by a score of 4-1. That wrapped up a 4-2 homestand. In fact, they have played only one road game (lost at Minnesota) going all the way back to December 17th! Kari Lehtonen is expected to be between the pipes for them today and he is an incredible 9-0 all-time vs. the Bruins. But his save percentage nor his goals against average in those nine games indicate no real dominance. In front of him, he'll be w/o key defenseman Marc Methot. That could mean trouble facing a Boston offense that's averaging more than five goals per game over its last five contests. 8* Boston

6* Chicago (12:35 ET): This is just an awful spot for the visiting Red Wings, who had to play last night (and lost 4-1 to the Penguins) and now must hit the ice for an early start time Sunday. Not only that, but this is a classic case of the favorite being much better than its overall record while the underdog isn't even necessarily as good as its own won-loss mark. Something I've been harping on for a long time now is how Detroit was extraordinarily fortunate to go 9-0 SU in shootouts last season (unsustainable!). They're 3-1 SU in such contests this year. Having been outscored mightily on the road this season does not bode well against one of the better home teams in the sport. Take the favorite in this one. 

While the Red Wings have dropped consecutive games, the Blackhawks are off a huge win - right here at home - over Central Division leading Winnipeg. Something else I've been harping on recently is how tough the Central is this year. Every team has a winning record in regulation as well as a positive goal differential. Shockingly, Chicago is only one point ahead of last place Colorado. But that's misleading as is their home record of 12-7-2. They're outscoring visitors by a full goal per game here at the "Madhouse on Madison" while averaging 35.6 shots per game here. Only a handful of teams have been more dominant (in terms of scoring margin) on home ice this year. Bottom line is I expected the 'Hawks to start winning a lot more here, moving forward. Jeff Glass, a rookie, continues to be a revalation in goal w/ a .918 save percentage and in five starts. Despite the small sample size, I actually given him a large edge over his likely counterpart, Petr Mrazek of the Red Wings. 

Mrazek has not performed well in his limited duty as a backup this season. In 12 appearances, his goals against average is 3.78 and his save percentage is .885. He's only getting the nod here due to this being the second game of a back to back and Jimmy Howard was between the pipes last night. Detroit has allowed nine goals over its last two games. If Howard does go, that's fine too as he has a losing career record vs. Chicago. Most damning of all though is the fact the Red Wings are 2-12 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals last game. 6* Chicago 

10* Los Angeles (10:35 ET): Given that they missed the playoffs last season, the Kings should be thrilled to be in the position they're in right now. They have 53 points and a +27 goal differential, both of which rank as third best in the Western Conference. They're second in the Pacific, a division where a number of teams are having disappointing seasons. But after B2B losses, they're starting to fall behind Vegas (who would have thought!?) in the battle for first. Tonight, they host Anaheim (who is also off B2B losses) in an important matchup. Being off B2B losses isn't the only similarity here; both teams come in w/ a full week of rest, which is something you just don't see very often. 

This is really a bit of odd scheduling from the Ducks perspective as the time off comes in the middle of a five-game trip. But it at least allowed them to rest at home after playing three games up in Western Canada. They lost both in Alberta, 2-1 to the Oilers and 3-2 to the Flames, the first coming via a shootout. Before suffering those two losses, it appeared as if the club might be turning a corner as they'd won five of six (only loss to Vegas). But Anaheim is one of the bigger Pacific Division "disappointments" I spoke of earlier as their current point total of 47 would have them OUT of the playoffs, were they to begin today. As I've been saying for over a month now, it's very likely that the Pacific will only send its top three to the playoffs as the tougher Central Division is poised to grab both "Wild Card" spots.

In addition to their always-strong puck possession numbers, another reason to like the Kings moving forward is they rank #1 in the league in both fewest goals allowed and penalty killing. They are not a good matchup for the Ducks, who come in at 25th in goals per game and 24th on the power play. Of course, the Ducks also rank in the top seven in both goals allowed and penalty killing, but are obviously not as strong as the Kings are in those departments. The Kings have won both previous matchups this season (each by one goal) and I'll gladly take Jonathan Quick over whomever Anaheim decided to trot out between the pipes tonight. The Ducks are allowing the second highest number of shots per game in the league right now, trailing only Florida. 10* Los Angeles

10* Chicago (8:35 ET): This is a crucial game for the Blackhawks, who just lost 2-1 (here at home) to Minnesota on Wednesday. As discussed before, the Central Division is absolutely LOADED this season w/ every team owning a winning record in regulation and none having a negative goal differential. The team at the top of the heap, Winnipeg, is Chicago's opponent tonight. The Jets have won three straight and are 7-1-2 L10. I had them Tuesday as they laid waste to Buffalo, 7-4, on the road. Tonight marks the second game of a four-city trek as they'll be in Minnesota tomorrow night. It will be interesting to see who the Jets start in goal given that this is the front end of a back to back. Chicago also has questions in goal here.

I feel that the sense of urgency is likely to propel the Blackhawks to victory tonight. They might only be 11-7-2 at home this year, but they are outscoring their opponents by a full goal per game here, so the record "should" be better. They also average 36.0 shots per game here on home ice. Getting the puck on net has NOT been an issue for this club as they regularly outshoot the opposition (#1 in shots per game), including their last two opponents quite handily. Why then are they languishing near the bottom of their division? Well, a bad power play hasn't helped and neither has #1 goalie Corey Crawford being injured. But a 6-10 SU record in one-goal games (six of those losses coming in OT or shootout) has probably been most damning. This team is better than its record, in my opinion.

Tip your cap to Winnipeg, who is trying to make the postseason for just the 2nd time since relocating from Atlanta. That will likely happen, but quite simply this is not the same team on the road where they have a losing record and have been outscored on the season. Part of the issue is that six of their seven OT/shootout losses have been away from home. But, again, I point to the fact they've been outscored in all road games. While they lead the Western Conference in goals per game, they average only 2.8 gpg on the road (pretty pedestrian). Goalie Connor Hellebuyck has bailed them out of late, but is due to "cool off" as is the Jets offense. The Blackhawks are likely to start Anton Forsberg, who has a .949 save percentage at home. 10* Chicago

8* Washington (7:05 ET): I simply can't reiterate enough just how "thin" the line is between the teams on top in the NHL and those that aren't at the very bottom of the league. We are starting to see some separation in the Eastern Conference where Atlantic Division leading Tampa Bay has been out in front all season and has put distance between themselves and the rest of the pack. In fact, there is now a somewhat sizable gap between the top three in the Atlantic and the rest of the field. But over in the Metro (where we're likely to see five playoff teams), things remain a bit more "murkey." Washington leads the division, but both Columbus and New Jersey are well within striking distance. To me, that means fewer letdowns should be expected from this division leader and thus I'll take them at this relatively inexpensive price (at home!) on the money line tonight.

Making this bet look all the more sound is the recent form of the respective clubs. Carolina has dropped four of five, including a 5-4 loss to the Caps back on 1.2. That was a pretty painful loss as not only did it occur at home and in overtime, but the Hurricanes had a 38-26 edge in shots on goal. More often than not, the Canes do enjoy the edge in shots on goal over their opponents. But it's simply not translating to the kind of success that you'd think it would. Granted, it has been a brutal stretch of games that has seen them take on St. Louis, Washington, Pittsburgh, Boston and Tampa Bay, the last three all coming on the road. But things get no easier here where they have not won in the last two seasons. Their last two visits to the Nation's Capital have resulted in losses by a combined margin of 11-1!

Immediately following this game, the teams will rematch in Raleigh. After that, Washington will have five days off. While a break is always welcomed, the Caps probably don't want to stop playing right now as they have gone 13-2-2 since the beginning of December, including five straight victories. During that five-game win streak, they have scored four or more goals four times. Carolina has allowed 5+ goals in each of its last three losses, so this is looking like a real mismatch on paper. Not to mention, the Caps are 17-2 their L19 home games. 8* Washington

8* Winnipeg (7:05 ET): The Jets continue to lead the Central Division as they now have 57 points to go a long w/ a +27 goal differential, also a division best. The team is 7-2-1 its L10 games and has been dominant at home all season, going 16-3-1 in Manitoba. Here, they are hitting the road, but fortunate for them they're traveling to Buffalo where they'll find the league-worst Sabres residing. Buffalo has just 29 pts and has dropped four in a row. They are the Eastern Conference's worst team - by a pretty clear margin - and only Arizona has fewer points league-wide. The Sabres have been outscored by 51 goals this season. All things considered, this seems like a pretty cheap price on the favorite.

Buffalo has yet to play a home game in 2018. They began w/ the New Year's Classic against the Rangers (at Citi Field, home of MLB's Mets), a game they lost 3-2 (I had them +1.5 though!). But the three "true" road games that followed all resulted in fairly ugly defeats, including 4-3 at Winnipeg just four days ago. In that game, the power play was the difference as the Jets scored twice w/ the man advantage while the Sabres were 0 for 5. Important to note that the Jets never trailed in the contest and twice were up two goals. The Sabres followed that up w/ a 4-1 loss at Philadelphia. That's bad news for them as they come into tonight's game at 3-10 SU this season after scoring 1 goal or less the previous time out. This team ranks dead last in the league in goals per game and is 29th in goals allowed. Their power play won't help either as it ranks 30th. 

Against a team w/ a winning record, the Sabres are just 2-14 SU this season and they are also 5-24 SU when playing w/ revenge. Winnipeg beat San Jose 4-1 on Sunday and still hasn't lost in regulation since prior to Christmas. The fact they were able to take advantage of the PP the last time vs. Buffalo came as no surprise as the Jets rank 2nd in the league when on the man advantage. They are also third in goals per game. Connor Hellebuyck gives them a substantial edge in goal as well as he has a .923 save percentage in 35 starts this year (.943 L4 starts). Buffalo's best option for between the pipes, Robin Lehner, comes in w/ an .887 save percentage his L4 starts. This game is every bit the total mismatch it appears to be on paper. 8* Winnipeg

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): Only one game on the NHL docket Monday and I was waiting to pounce (line posted late) as Columbus is playing the second night of a back to back, following a shootout win over Florida last night. I happened to be on the Blue Jackets Sunday as their woeful power play is what saved them. Twice, the league's worst PP unit scored, offsetting some key injuries. But, the task is much tougher tonight as C-bus hits the road to face Toronto. The Maple Leafs are off B2B wins (after a 3-game losing skid) and have been one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference all season. Currently, they are third in the Atlantic Division (one point behind red-hot Boston), but I also have them as the third best team in the Conference! The better team being in the more ideal situation leads to an easy call here. 

Unlike the Blue Jackets, the Leafs happen to have excellent special teams as they rank in the top 10 in both power play percentage and penalty killing. They're also 7th in the league in goals per game. That likely means trouble for a Columbus offense that, like I said in yday's analysis, often struggles to find the back of the net. The Jackets still rank 27th in gpg even though yday's performance on the PP raised them out of last (now 30th) in that department. With this being the 2nd game of a B2B, will the overworked Sergei Bobrovsky be in goal again for Columbus? Bobrovsky has started all three games for the team since we turned the calendar to 2018 as well as seven of the last eight games. It's a big dropoff to backup Joonas Korpisalo (.889 save percentage on the road), though it's also worth noting that Bobrovsky himself isn't nearly as effective on the road as he is at Nationwide Arena. 

The Maple Leafs last won a game in regulation all the way back on 12.28 at lowly Arizona. Their last two wins, here at home, have both come via shootouts. Compared to last year, the Leafs have been far better in shootouts in 2017-18 (4-1 SU). They haven't been very good against C-bus, however, dropping three of the past four meetings including a 4-2 decision back in December on the road. The Jackets have also won their last three visits here. But I'll call for that streak to end tonight as Toronto is 13-6 SU at the Air Canada Center this year. Columbus has not scored more than two goals in regulation in any of its L4 games. 8* Toronto 

8* Columbus (5:05 ET): As discussed here many times over, the Metropolitan is likely to send FIVE teams to the playoffs this year while the Atlantic will only send three. Those three seem pretty well definied at this point w/ Tampa Bay, Toronto and Boston all having broken away "from the pack" (there's an 11-pt cushion between them and the field). The Metro is not like that at all as only five points separate third from last place. Columbus is (precariously) holding onto what would be one of the two Wild Card spots as they have 49 pts, but are actually tied for third w/ the Rangers. So this is potentially a huge two points for them. I think they should have no problem beating a Florida team that's lost the first two of what will end up as a four-game road trip. Losers of four of five, C-bus is a desperate side tonight.

The Blue Jackets have had two days off to stew over being shutout by Colorado, 2-0, on Thursday. It was not only the fourth loss in the last five games, but also the second time they've been shut out in the last three. Offense has been an issue here as the team ranks 27th for the year in goals per game and dead last (31st) on the power play. There are injuries, but I'd still expect them to play better. Sergei Bobrovsky is doing his part in goal w/ a .935 save percentage in home games. The Jackets are 14-7 SU at Nationwide Arena this season, averaging 35.5 shots per game. They are also 9-4 SU when playing w/ exactly two days rest this season. They're 5-0 SU when coming off three consecutive Unders.

The Panthers simply are not a very good team as they rank 24th in goals allowed, 25th in goals allowed and 27th on the power play. They are one of the also-rans in the Atlantic as they face a potentially big hill to climb to get back into playoff contention. After a five-game win streak to end 2017, Florida has lost both 2018 games, giving up nine goals in the process. On the road this season, they are being outscored by almost a full goal per game. Not good. When these teams faced off back in November, it was all Columbus (won 7-3) and that was in Miami. 8* Columbus

8* Boston (7:05 ET): As I discussed elsewhere today (see *10* Total Power), the Bruins have moved into a second place tie w/ Toronto in the Atlantic Division. That Original Six pairing seems destined to meet in the 1st round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. But first, Boston must continue its recent strong stretch of play here at home tonight vs. Carolina. This is a battle of the teams that have owned/currently own the best shot differentials in the league over the last two seasons. Boston had that distinction last season. Ironically, it didn't help much as they were ousted in the first round of the playoffs by Ottawa. Carolina is a league-best +5.4 shots per game compared to its opponents this year, yet only resides in fifth in the Metro, holding onto what would be the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. That shots per game metric remains something I strongly believe in, but I'm going w/ the red-hot Bruins at home tonight. 

Not only has Boston won seven of its last eight, but they have been dominant in doing so. They did lose 4-3 to Washington back on December 30th, but that's their only loss over the L3 weeks. They come off B2B road wins, over Ottawa and the Islanders, each game scoring five times. Impressive as that scoring output may be, it's been the other end of the ice where the B's have been even better of late. In each of the last six wins, they've allowed 1 or 0 goals. Overall, they've outscored opponents 33-10 the L8 games and remember half of those goals allowed came in the loss to the Caps. They are a perfect 3-0 this season after playing their previous three games all on the road.

Carolina has also been playing well of late w/ wins in 8 of their last 11. When they win, more often than not they too do a good job of slamming the lid shut on opposing offenses. But they did allow EIGHT goals in a loss to Toronto during this stretch and five more in a recent loss to Washington. A big key here is Boston's scheduled game vs. Florida on Thursday was postponed due to the inclement weather here. That means Tuukka Rask is more than likely to be between the pipes tonight. He brings in a ridiculous 11-0-1 record and .956 save percentage his L12 starts and he's only getting stingier (.972 L4 starts). He is 7-3-3 all-time vs. the 'Canes w/ a 1.89 goals against average and .939 save percentage. 8* Boston

10* Chicago (8:35 ET): If, before the season, I had predicted that the expansion team in Vegas would have more points than perennial power Chicago on January 5th, you likely would have had me committed. I also would have been correct. Now, I did not make that projection (nor did anyone else) and am still skeptical of how long the Golden Knights can keep this up. Yes, the so-called "Vegas Flu" seems to have infected their opponents upon visitation of Sin City, but when on the road themselves, the Knights are a far different (and less effective) club. Just last night, they lost in St. Louis (2-1), a result which snapped an eight-game win streak. Now, w/o rest, they must visit one of the toughest venues in the league, the "Madhouse on Madison," in Chicago. 

Perhaps more shocking than Vegas being in first place in the Pacific is Chicago being in last in the Central. The Central Division has clearly emerged as the toughest in the sport w/ every team posting a positive goal differential and owning a winning record in regulation. The Blackhawks have played the fewest games (39) so far and only five points separate them from fourth place. Just three points separate them from the Wild Card. Two nights ago, the 'Hawks picked up a big two points in Madison Square Garden, beating the Rangers 5-2. It was a three-goal third period that won it for them. Also, the emergence of goalie Jeff Glass remains a key story in the Windy City. Filling in for the injured Corey Crawford, Glass (a rookie) made 23 more saves Weds night and now has a .917 save percentage in three starts. 

I mentioned earlier that Vegas isn't the same team on the road that they are at home. Look no further than the records for proof of that. They've gone 17-2-1 in Sin City, but only 10-8-1 on the road. Meanwhile, I'm really surprised that the Blackhawks are only 10-5-2 on home ice this year. They are outscoring visiting teams by over a full goal per game here while averaging 36.8 shots per game (a very high number). While Glass has been a savior between the pipes, I still can't figure out how Vegas has navigated its goaltending situation as five different netminders have seen ice time this season. Marc-Andre Fleury is back and has been hot, but faced 39 shots last night and thus may not start here. 10* Chicago

8* Dallas (8:05 ET): Like I've said many times before, separating the contenders from the pretenders is a pretty difficult chore right now in the NHL. Sure, we know Tampa Bay is really good and Arizona/Buffalo are really bad, but it's a real "thin line" in determining everyone else's future lot. Case in point, the Central Division where everyone is separated by just 10 points and Chicago is actually second from the bottom! Furthermore, every team in the division owns a positive scoring differential for the season! Dallas is right in the middle of it, as in fourth place, holding one of the Western Conference's two Wild Cards currently. But there are five teams within four points of them, meaning any kind of losing streak would be extremely detrimental. Off a loss (here on home ice), I'm banking on them to bounce back tonight.

Vegas is clearly THE surprise story in the NHL this season and because of that the resurgence of New Jersey has probably fallen a bit "under the radar." The Devils, who have missed the playoffs each of the last five seasons, currently sit in second in the Metro and are just two points back of the Caps. Normally, this is an inept team offensively that had to be carried by goalie Corey Schnieder. But they have shockingly jumped to 8th in goals per game this season. I remain skeptical if that can be maintained. After winning five in a row from 12.15 to 12.27 (all at home), the club has lost its last three games, one at home to Buffalo and the other two (Washington, St. Louis) out on the road. Tonight's game will be a tough chore as not only is it a third consecutive away game, but the Stars are 14-5-1 SU at American Airlines Center.

Furthermore, you have to wonder if Dallas' record on home ice should be even better. After all, they are outscoring visitors by a pretty wide margin this year (1.3 goals per game!). For the last few years, the Stars were built the exact opposite of the Devils as they were "all offense, no defense." That dichotomy didn't matter two years ago when they won the division, but could not be overcome last year when they failed to even make the playoffs. Not surprising is that they are in the middle this year and having Ben Bishop in goal helps as he has a .941 save percentage his L4 starts and .933 save percentage at home, for the season. I failed to mention earlier that the Devils have slipped to 18th in goals allowed this year and they also give up 34.5 shots per game on the road. 8* Dallas

8* NY Rangers (8:05 ET): Neither of these two proud franchises are at where they want to be in the standings right now, especially Chicago. Certainly, the Wild Card is not what either the Rangers or Blackhawks had in mind coming into this season. But, looking at the way things stand currently, I'd say it's the Blueshirts that have the rosier outlook. First, they can lay claim to have the top goal differential (+14) in their division. They're also already in fourth place, which is better than where the 'Hawks reside in the Central. Shockingly, Chicago is in last place entering play on Wednesday as they are the ONLY team in their division (very competitive, obviously) to have a losing overall record. With the home ice advantage, I like the Rangers here.

Normally, coming off the Winter Classic, I might be a little "down" on the situation for New York. They did beat Buffalo, 3-2, on New Year's Day at Citi Field (home of MLB's Mets), but needed OT to do so. Often times, we've seen teams struggle after playing their previous game outdoors. But, situationally speaking, tonight is a much worse spot for Chicago as they are at the end of a six-game road trip that started on 12.21 and has taken them all around North America. They played their previous three games out in Western Canada (Vancouver-Edmonton-Calgary) and have just one win on the trip. Making things worse is that the L2 games have both gone into overtime. You have to wonder what this veteran team has left in the tank tonight. 

Truth be told, the Blackhawks are a pretty pedestrian team this year as they rank 13th in both goals scored and allowed and they have a terrible power play, which ranks 29th. Don't expect them to break through against a Rangers' penalty killing unit that is 5th best in the league. Furthermore, NY is 7th in both goals scored and allowed. They have the edge in goal, a big one, w/ Henrik Lundqvist (.935 save percentage L4 starts) over rookie Jeff Glass (filling in for injured Corey Crawford). That's a big deal when you consider how many shots Chicago has been allowing recently (84 L2 games!) and how many New York has been putting on net (35.6 per L5 games). By the time, the 'Hawks arrive at MSG, they will have traveled 8,000+ miles in the L2 weeks. 8* NY Rangers

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): In a season where the line between "good" and "bad" has arguably never been thinner, the biggest disappointment (outside of Edmonton?) has to reside in the Steel City where the reigning Stanley Cup Champs currently sit second from the bottom in the Metro w/ only 41 points (and a -14 goal differential). But all hope is not lost here. The Pens are still only three points back of the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, which is better than tonight's opponent, Detroit, who has only 35 points. The Red Wings only have 11 non-shootout wins, tied for 2nd fewest in the East (ahead of only lowly Buffalo). Pittsburgh has 17 such wins, which is respectable. I look for them to dominate here. 

I've mentioned this in the past, but I'll reiterate it again here. Detroit finished out of the playoffs LY for the first time in a quarter century, but they were actually pretty lucky to end up w/ 79 points (one ahead of Buffalo) and thus escape last place in the Atlantic. I say that because they were a somewhat preposterous 9-0 SU in shootouts. This year, they're 3-1 in shootouts. (Maybe it's about time they started losing some of those?). Here, they come in off a SO victory, 3-2 over the Rangers on Friday. That snapped a three-game losing streak, but they were outshot in the game as well. The power play is 0 for its last 12 and the team remains 26th in the league in goals per game. They're also 25th in goals allowed. 

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's decline in goal scoring is somewhat striking as this year, they're down to 20th. Usually, we find this club ranked in the top five in that department. Their power play is still ranked 3rd, mind you. The Pens have lost six of nine, including their last game, 2-1 to Carolina. While they were held to just one goal on 28 shots there, one reason I expect the Pens to start moving up the standings is that they are #1 in the league in shots per game (34.8) and #2 in shot per game differential (+4.1). All those chances are bound to start generating more goals and fortunately here, they're facing a Detroit team w/ shaky goaltending. This is a classic "get well spot." 10* Pittsburgh

6* Boston (7:05 ET): This is a big game for the Bruins. Not only are they trying to solidify their current standing in the Atlantic Division (in third place), but they're fighting w/ Toronto for second, which would guarantee home ice advantage in a 1st round playoff series between the two. Perhaps, you remember the Bruins NOT having home ice advantage in the 1st round last year (vs. Ottawa) when they were eliminated in six games. That's the other factor I'm looking at here as it's a big revenge spot for Beantown. This is their first time playing the Sens since last year's playoffs and they'll certainly be eager to reverse a trend that's seen them go just 3-11 SU head to head (1-6 here at home) vs. Ottawa, who is down this year. Big moneyline is certainly justified here. 

I remember thinking last year's playoff series was going to be the time Boston "turned the tables" on Ottawa. They won Game 1, on the road, but then proceeded to lose four of the next five, including all three here at home! The Senators were not a particularly great team in 2016-17 as they were actually outscored in the regular season (only playoff team that could say that). So, I'm not surprised to see that they've somewhat faceplanted this season, as only Buffalo has fewer points and a worse goal differential in the Eastern Conference. Boston led the league in shots per game differential LY, a key metric that indicated they were the more likely of the two teams here to sustain success. 

Furthermore, Ottawa and Boston come into tonight's game trending in very different directions. The Sens have lost three straight and 8 of their last 10. They've been shutout five different times during that stretch, not to mention have allowed 4+ goals in half of those games. They are 27th in the league in goals per game and 26th in goals allowed. Even special teams have failed w/ a 25th place ranking on the power play and 24th in penalty killing. So, really, there's nothing this team does well. As for the Bruins, they've won four in a row while outscoring the opposition 15-4. They are 5th in the league in goals against and 4th in penalty killing. Ottawa is just 2-7 SU after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game (lost 1-0 to Florida on Saturday). Bruins' goalie Tuukka Rask is well-rested here and sports a .939 save percentage his L4 starts. He's 8-0-1 L9 starts and was named the league's #1 star last week. Going back further, Boston is 13-3-1 its last 17 games while Ottawa is 3-12-3 its L18. 6* Boston

incorrectly entered play! 

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Though they picked up two points for themselves their last time out, the Flyers' 4-3 win over the Red Wings on Wednesday hurt me as I had the Under on that game. Philly has been a VERY streaky team this season, at one point losing as many as 10 games in a row (5 came in OT/shootout). But they suddenly "found themselves" on a trip through Western Canada (swept Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver) and have now won seven of eight, six of those wins coming in regulation. Now, it hasn't meant much in the standings as they still are tied for last place in the Metro w/ 37 points. But they're in a lot better position than the last place team in the Atlantic, that being Buffalo, who has only 23 points. The two "cellar dwellars" meet tonight in upstate New York and it's clear the Flyers have the edge.

The Sabres are, objectively speaking, the worst team in the Eastern Conference this year. Their 23 points are seven fewer than the next worst team and as I already mentioned, they'd be 14 pts back of every team in the Metro. Their -42 goal differential is twice as bad as the next worst team (Ottawa at -21). The only team in the league w/ fewer points and a worse goal differential is Arizona. Buffalo is dead last in the league in scoring (2.1 goals per game) and 28th in goals allowed (3.3). Their power play ranks 30th (next to last), converting at only a 12.7% clip. They come into tonight having lost three straight (starting w/ a 2-1 loss at Philly) and despite outshooting the Bruins Tuesday night, the Sabres were still shutout (lost 3-0) for the fourth time in less than a month. 

In that 2-1 loss down in Philly last Thursday, Buffalo managed only 20 shots on goals. Considering the Flyers have a pretty clear edge between the pipes in this matchup (9th in goals allowed), it's not surprising that didn't get the job done. The Sabres have won only three of their past 19 games and all three wins came against "bad" teams.  Over the L5 games, the Flyers have outshot every opponent and allowed an average of just 24.2 shots per game. There are a number of key trends that go against Buffalo here, namely the fact they are just 3-20 SU their L23 revenge spots. They're also just 2-10 SU this season after a game where they scored 1 goal or less. 10* Philadelphia

6* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): Both of these teams come in off impressive victories. The Isles beat the Kings on Saturday, 4-3, right here in NY. Detroit beat old rival Toronto, 3-1, also at home. But the bottom line is that when you look at how each club was playing PRIOR to that last game, the stories are simply not the same. The Red Wings, a team that would have been a lot worse LY were it not for a perfect 9-0 record in shootouts, had dropped 10 of 11 games before that one win over the Leafs. Interestingly (but not surprising) is that their record in extra time has been very different this year as they're 0-6 in OT (excluding shootouts where they're 2-1). New York is the better team here, which is reflected in the ML and I expect them to win.

Five of those six overtimes losses for the Red Wings occurred during the 1-10 slide. They'd blown third period leads and lost in OT each of the two games previous to beating Toronto. Unfortunately though, you'd have to go all the way back to mid-November to find the last time this team won B2B games. Going back to Nov 15, they've topped three goals in regulation just one time, a 5-1 win over Winnipeg on 12.5. That game was on home ice, however. Their last road win came all the way back on Nov 6 at Vancouver. Before beating the Leafs, the Wings were just 4-9 SU when facing a foe that has a winning record. The goaltending here has been pretty awful with Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek combining for an .899 save percentage. The Wings might be well-rested (last played Friday), but they're not good.

The Islanders, meanwhile, are currently holding down what would be the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. They are 2nd in goals scored w/ an average of 3.5 per game. So we should expect them to take advantage of Detroit's weak goaltending. Now the goals allowed side of the ledger has also been an issue for the Isles, however, this is a game where they simply should be able to "outscore" the opponent. Detroit ranks 26th in the league in goals per game. Playing w/ exactly two days of rest this season, the club has gone 6-3 SU. Another key is this being a home game as the Isles are 10-2-2 at the Barclays Center, averaging an impressive 4.3 goals per game. 6* NY Islanders

8* Pittsburgh (9:05 ET): We last addressed the Penguins' recent struggles when I played them Saturday in what was a clear "get well" spot at league-worst Arizona. Well, the schedule makers remain kind to the reigning Stanley Cup Champs as tonight's visit is to another last place team, Colorado, who happened to be the worst team in the league last year. Like the Arizona matchup, I point to the ML the last time these teams faced off and how it was north of -200 in Pittsburgh's favor. Granted, they suffered a shocking loss to the Avs that day (2-1), but they did outshoot them 40-28 and at this price are a "must play."

Colorado surprisingly played well in the early part of the season as they came into December sporting a respectable 12-9-2 record. But the wheels (or is it skates?) have begun to come off this month w/ the club dropping six of its last nine. They've begun to give up goals in bunches (32 total L8 games) and that's trouble when getting set to face a team like the Penguins. Scoring is down in the Steel City this season, for several reasons, but Saturday saw them Pens score four goals in regulation for the first time in two weeks. Considering the Avs are 27th in the league in goals against, I can see the Pens making it B2B games w/ 4+ goals.

Pittsburgh also allowed just 17 shots against the Coyotes, which may have been more impressive than them scoring four times. Over its last five games, the Pens are allowing an average of just 24.4 shots per game, which obviously makes it very difficult for your opponent to win. Colorado is allowing 34.6 shots per game its last five contests. Another key here is Pittsburgh still ranks 4th in the league on the power play while Colorado is middle of the road in penalty killing. Though the final score was 6-5 Saturday vs. the Lightning (lost), the Avs twice trailed in that game by four goals. Pittsburgh is 9-4 SU this season after scoring 4+ goals in their previous game. 8* Pittsburgh 

8* Chicago (7:05 ET): The Central Division is shaping up to be very tough this year (best division in the sport?) and that makes tonight's game between the Blackhawks and Wild pretty important. Chicago has won four in a row, but hasn't made much headway in the division race as their 37 points has them only tied for fifth. Ironically, the team they're tied with is the one they play this evening. Minnesota had lost four in a row themselves going into last night, but lost at home to Edmonton by a score of 3-2. Playing back to back nights is going to be a challenge for this club as they are still w/o their top goaltender Devan Dubnyk (listed as "week to week" w/ a lower body injury), meaning Alex Stalock is likely to be called into duty for the fifth straight game and third time in four nights. That's a heavy workload. 

Compounding the issue Minnesota and Stalock face here is that not only would it be a third start in four nights, but his previous two before that both went into extra time. Again, this is a heavy workload for a netminder not used to playing the majority of the games. While Stalock has played well (.935 save percentage L4 games), I expect that to soon subside. This would seem like a logical spot for that as the Blackhawks come in averaging a whopping 37.0 shots per their L5 games as well as 36.2 for the year here at the "Madhouse on Madison." They've scored a total of 14 goals during their four-game win streak. 

Beating Buffalo, Arizona and Florida (all here on home ice) is something you'd expect Chicago to do. So when they arrived in Winnipeg Thursday, riding a three-game win streak, there wasn't too much of a reason to be excited. But then the 'Hawks beat the Jets, and did so in commanding fashion, 5-1. Note they've been able to engineer this "turnaround" despite being a miserable 1 for 23 on the power play this month. Wait until those goals start coming. The key here though remains between the pipes where Chicago can lean on Corey Crawford, who checks in w/ a 2.15 GAA and .934 save percentage this season. He's posted a 2.39 GAA and .922 save percentage in 23 career games vs. Minnesota. The Wild, meanwhile, either have to turn to Stalock again or Steve Michalek, who has NEVER made a NHL start before. 8* Chicago

8* Pittsburgh (8:00 ET): Are the Penguins in real trouble? Possibly. The defending Stanley Cup Champs have now lost three in a row to fall below .500 and have a YTD goal differential of -11. Therefore, it shouldn't surprise you to find that they are currently outside the top eight in the Eastern Conference. However, it's a VERY "thin line" between inside (the playoffs) and outside in the Metro where three teams (Columbus, NJ, Washington are all tied for 1st (w/ 41 points) while the two "Wild Card" teams (Rangers, Islanders) have 37 pts, just two more than the Pens. Scoring is way down this year in the Steel City as is the team's save percentage (.914 last year to .896). Also, the team has not been nearly as fortunate in one-score games. Thankfully for tonight, they'll be matched up w/ the worst team in the league. Take 'em.

Arizona has only 19 points this season (7-22-5), has lost five in a row and has been outscored by 42 goals. So, by comparison, Pittsburgh might as well be on their way to another Stanley Cup! The 'Yotes' recent work leaves a lot to be desired as in the L4 games they've been outscored 14-3. They returned home Thursday (from a four-game road trip) and lost 4-1 to Tampa Bay, a game in which they gave up 48 shots on goal. Not only are the Coyotes 30th (2nd worst) in the league in goals per game, but they're 31st in goals allowed. 

While the Penguins do have legitimate issues w/ their roster and have struggled on the road, this is a game they - clearly - should win. They already beat the 'Yotes earlier in the year, 3-1, on home ice. Note they were priced as a -300 favorite in that game! They finished w/ a 37-25 edge in shots and things could have been a lot more lopsided were it not for a 1 for 6 performance on the power play. Having the man advantage remains the Pens' clear strength as they currently rank 4th in the league in that department at 25.6%. While the Pens have lost three straight and four of their last five, all of those games have been decided by exactly one goal. Arizona has not only lost five straight, but eight of nine and five of those losses have been by two goals or more. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): What a strange, up and down season the Flyers have had so far. From November 11th to December 4th, the club lost 10 consecutive games, five of those coming in overtime or a shootout. But they apparently "rediscovered" themselves in a trek through Western Canada, sweeping Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, then for good measure returned home and defeated a quality Maple Leafs side. Now they'll try and beat beat an American franchise for the 1st time since beating Chicago on 11.9. Lucky for them is that Buffalo should be all to accomodating. By any objective measure, the Sabres are the worst team in the Eastern Conferencce as they have the fewest number of points and the worst goal differential. 

Buffalo is off a rare win here, which makes me even more skeptical of their chances tonight. On Tuesday, they downed the Senators by a 3-2 score, scoring all three goals in the second period. Getting blanked in two of three periods is nothing new for this team as they are dead last in the league in goals per game. They're also 30th on the power play. Sadly, the other side of the ledger isn't much better either. The Sabres rank 28th in goals allowed. This is a team that has won B2B games only ONE time all season and that was back on 10.21-10.24. Though they took both the Blues and Blackhawks to OT in their last two road games, the Sabres were badly outshot in both games. Tonight's likely starting goaltender, Robin Lehner, has a .893 save percentage. 

Meanwhile, Philly has seemingly rediscovered its scoring touch these last four games, totaling 17 goals during that time. All four wins came in regulation and Tuesday's win over Toronto was quite impressive when you consider they outshot the prolific Maple Leafs 39-22. Something that surprises me some is the Flyers are only 5-10 at home this season. But four of those losses have occurred past regulation. Currently, the team is tied for the most OT/shootout losses in the league (7) which indicates they've been the victim of poor luck. Goalie Brian Elliott has certainly been doing his job of late w/ a .946 save percentage his L4 starts. He gives his team a massive edge over Lehner and faces an opponent that has dropped six of eight while being shut out three times during that span. Philly has gotten goals from 10 different players during its win streak and has played disciplined hockey w/ only seven penalties taken. 8* Philadelphia

8* San Jose (10:05 ET): The Sharks "pulled one out of their hat" the last time they hit the ice, rallying back from an early 3-0 deficit to defeat Carolina, 5-4, in overtime. That win has allowed them to stay in a three-way tie for the coveted third place spot (guaranteed playoffs) in the Pacific w/ 32 points. But there's such a thin line between the top and the bottom this year in the NHL that one loss can result in a precipitous fall. For example, just one point separates the Sharks from third to sixth place in their own division. So it's imperative they continue winning here on home ice. Thankfully, the visiting Senators provide an ample opportunity for San Jose to keep things going. Ottawa has lost 10 of 11 w/ very little offense to speak of.

The Sens did score three goals in regulation their last time out, but it wasn't enough as they lost at LA, in OT, 4-3. Keep in mind that came after being shutout in B2B games (Winnipeg, Anaheim), so anything was gonna be an improvement. During the 1-10 slide, Ottawa has been held to two or fewer goals nine times. They are just 23rd in goals per game for the year. But just about any objective metric, this is a club that's well below average. They also rank 25th in goals allowed per game. Even special teams are poor as they rank 26th on the power play (16.7%) and 24th on the PK (77.6%). They were lucky to even force OT against the Kings (game-tying goal came w/ less than 10 seconds left in regulation). By the way, this is also the Senators' sixth consecutive road game. 

San Jose has been allowing more goals than usual lately, but that should change here against the offensively inept Sens. The Sharks have two of the top eight goalies in terms of goals against average, including league leader Aaron Dell (1.93). Martin Jones isn't a bad option either. Both are better than Ottawa's top option, Craig Anderson, who is 34th in goals against average (3.01) w/ an .895 save percentage. I mentioned this in my analysis for the San Jose-Carolina game (had the Sharks by the way!) - they're due for better results at home given the rather large shot discrepancy they currently own over their visitors over the course of the season. Good matchup for them tonight. 8* San Jose 

8* Chicago (8:35 ET): This game is every bit the mismatch the line indicates it is, if not more of one. The Blackhawks are a disappointing sixth in the Central Division right now as they were handed a 5th straight defeat Wednesday night, 6-2 by the Capitals. But let's keep things in their proper perspective, shall we? They've still outscored the opposition this season and remain a force in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the same cannot be said for Buffalo out East. The Sabres are inarguably one of the two worst teams in the sport (alongside Arizona) as their goal differential (-36) matches that of the 'Yotes for league worst while they have the fewest number of points (18) overall. At home, this is the sport for Chicago to get back on track.

I think the fact Buffalo is also off a (rare) win here helps us. They beat Colorado, the lone team below Chicago in the Central, Tuesday night by a score of 4-2. Prior to that, however, the Sabres had lost four straight and had been shut out in three of those losses (scored just 1 goal total during the entirety of the losing skid!). This club is dead last in the league in scoring and overall has dropped 11 of its last 13 games. During that stretch, they have been held to 1 or 0 goals EIGHT times. Chicago comes in ranked seventh in the league in goals allowed (also 5th in penalty killing), so they should have no difficulty shutting the Sabres down. Nevermind what happened against Washington the other night; the Sabres are not the Caps.

The fact the Blackhawks are only 6-5-2 on home ice is a little bit mystifying considering they are outscoring visitors by almost a full goal per game over the course of the season. So, by that metric, they are overdue for better results here at the "Madhouse on Madison."  Through the year, they've always been pretty good at peppering opposing goaltenders w/ shots here at home and so far this year has been no different as they average 35.6 per game. Yes, they are still w/o Corey Crawford in goal, but the 'Hawks are still better there than Buffalo, who has an overall save percentage of .890 between Robin Lehner and Chad Johnson. The Sabres are 0 for 3 this season off a multi-goal victory and have been swept each of the last two seasons by the Blackhawks. 8* Chicago

8* San Jose (10:35 ET): The Sharks return home here after a four-game East Coast trip that started with wins over Philly and Florida, but end w/ defeats at the hands of Tampa Bay and Washington. This has been a surprisingly average team here at the Shark Tank (7-6-1 record), however, one thing that I found is that they are outshooting visitors - by a rather significant margin here. The Sharks average 34.4 shots per game on home ice, while allowing only 28.4, so they should be winning more. Now Carolina is an opponent that can put the puck on net w/ regularity as well. But their main issues resides between the pipes. That's where San Jose will have a huge edge tonight and that's a big reason why I'm on them! 

It's truly amazing how thin the line between being in the top eight in your conference and the bottom of the divisions is this year in NHL. San Jose is one of three teams in the Pacific that have 30 points, which is fourth most in the division and tied for eighth in the conference. Given they rank 2nd in the league in goals allowed, one would have to think things will get better (not worse) for the Sharks moving forward. To me, it doesn't matter who is goal tonight - Martin Jones or Aaron Dell - they will have the edge over their Carolina counterpart. Now if only they can find a way to start scoring more. Perhaps the 'Canes are the perfect elixir as San Jose has averaged roughly 4.0 goals per game its last 10 times hosting them.

These are actually two of the bottom five teams in goal scoring in the league (Carolina 27th, San Jose 29th). Thus, the fact the Sharks are 2nd in goals allowed while the Hurricanes are 15th is a major advantage. Also, San Jose is 2nd in penalty killing. Carolina is already just 28th on the power play and it's highly unlikely that the Sharks will take as many penalties as they did in their last game. Even if they did, would the Canes even be able to capitalize? Probably not. Carolina's PK ranks 25th in the league, by the way, so that's another edge San Jose's way. The Hurricanes are off a shutout loss in Vancouver and have dropped five of seven. They are near the bottom of the Metro and goaltender Scott Darling's save percentage is barely above .900 for the season. 8* San Jose

8* Winnipeg (7:05 ET): Thanks to St. Louis' recent struggles (three straight losses), the Jets are now tied for first place in what is shaping up to be a very tough Central Division. While they let me down in an OT loss to Colorado Wednesday, Winnipeg made it up to me by scoring seven goals Friday in a win over Vegas where I had the Over. They've now won 8 of 11 overall and tonight will host an Ottawa team that is not only hails from the opposite end of the country, but also the opposite end of the current NHL spectrum. The Sens have dropped seven of eight, though that lone win did come in their last game, 6-5 over the Islanders. Ottawa does have the most OT/shootout losses in the league so far (6), indicating poor luck, but their last five losses all came in regulation and saw them get held to two goals or fewer. That's simply not good enough facing tonight's opponent. 

As I've noted previously this week, Winnipeg is both a top seven teams in goals scored and allowed. That puts them right near the top of my own power rankings (currently 3rd!). Lately, they've done an excellent job at outshooting the opposition, doing so in each of the last five games. They scored three times on the power play Friday against Vegas and now rank 3rd in the league when on the man advantage. They are 8-0-1 their last nine home games. Goalie Connor Hellebuyck comes in w/ a .923 save percentage on the year.

On the other hand, we have Ottawa. While optimism persists in Manitoba, Canada's capital city has every reason to be pessimissitic about its hockey future based on comments made by team captain Erik Karlsson, who earlier in the week said that he would NOT accept a "hometown discount" to stay with the team when his contract is up at the end of the season. Note the Sens' nine victories are 4th fewest in the league right now. They are 24th in goals allowed. The six goals scored Friday matched the same number that they had scored in the previous five games - combined. 8* Winnipeg

8* Calgary (10:05 ET): The Battle of Alberta is renewed for just the 2nd time this season and to say we're looking at a much different situation than what was expected would be putting it mildly. Especially if you juxtapose the Flames and Oilers' respective positions currently with not just preseason predictions, but also the fact that Edmonton started out the season w/ a 3-0 blanking of Calgary on Opening Night (45-27 edge in shots). However, the Oilers have been the league's biggest disappointment so far this season (something I was "worried about" coming into 2017-18 after they made the huge jump from 70 to 103 points last season. Their 22 points are tied for fourth fewest in the league right now and this is a big-time revenge spot for the Flames, who were also swept in the season series last year. I'm on them.

Calgary comes in off a 3-0 shutout of Arizona Thursday night. The 'Yotes are one of the few teams w/ fewer points than the Oilers right now, but it's still a very good sign the Flames shut them out. That's because they won after their only other shutout this season, back on 10.11 against the Kings. They're 7-2 SU the L3 seasons in this situaton, that being off a shutout win. The Flames' numbers are decidedly mediocre this year, but that's a level the Oilers would "kill" to be at right now (more on them in a moment). Plus, better things could be on the horizon for Calgary thanks to Mark Jankowski being called up. In just his 17th game as a pro, Jankowski scored twice Thursday night as the Flames outshot the Coyotes 44-28. The likely starter in goal for the Flames, Mike Smith, has been hot of late w/ a .935 save percentage his L4 starts, including the shutout. 

Meanwhile, this season is quickly deteriorating into disaster for Edmonton. Early on, it was downright shocking how little they were scoring. Just to illustrate how bad the offense was they have risen to 24th in the league in goals per game thanks to 18 goals scored in the L5 games. But it is the other side of the ledger that has become the bigger issue as they are 29th in goals allowed per game and 31st (last) on the penalty kill. Last night's 6-4 loss to Toronto just may have taken the cake for worst loss of the season as an own goal broke a 4-4 tie late in the third period and then the Maple Leafs added an empty netter. #1 goalie Cam Talbot remains out, so Laurent Brossoit is going to have to go B2B nights and his save percentage his L4 starts is .884. This is a GREAT spot for the Flames to snap their five-game losing streak against their rival. 8* Calgary

10* Washington (7:05 ET): In my analysis for Tuesday's Kings-Red Wings matchup, I wrote that "I expect the Kings to be A LOT better off (than the Red Wings) come season's end. So I was not surprised at all to see LA pull off the 4-1 victory, although it was the Under that I actually cashed on that matchup. Prior to the win, the Kings had dropped seven of nine w/ the offense being mostly non-existent during this time period. Tuesday marked just the second time in the last 10 gaemes that they scored more than three goals in regulation. They do rank 2nd in the league in goals allowed and 1st on the PK, but that won't be enough here, on the road, against the Caps. 

The competition in the Metro is a lot deeper than what it is in the Pacific. So while the Kings are currently locked into a first-place tie w/ surprising Vegas, Washington is middle of the pack in their own division. But things do seem to be trending "up" in the Nation's Capital. The Caps have won three straight, including a big 4-2 win at Toronto on 11.25. They haven't taken the ice since, which should be a big advantage (four days rest!) against a Kings team that is playing its second road game in three nights. Washington also recently beat Tampa Bay, here at home, so that's B2B wins over arguably the two top teams in the Eastern Conference. The key here was clearly HC Barry Trotz decision to reunite Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom on the top line. 

The Caps are known for scoring, so they'll test the Kings' stinginess. They've scored 12 times in the three-game win streak, so there are signs that the team we're used to seeing in Washington is "back" in full force. Also, the Kings are just 2-7 SU vs. teams w/ a winning record this season. Compared to past seasons, this is a pretty incredible price on the Caps at home. 10* Washington

10* Winnipeg (9:35 ET): Things are going so well for the Jets right now that even Deadspin is writing about them! Their 15-6-3 start is the best the franchise has seen in any season since coming back into the league as the Atlanta Thrashers back in 1997. They are also 5-1 SU against the rest of the Central, which is perhaps the toughest division in the sport today. Monday night saw them completely annihilate Minnesota, 7-2. I expect another easy win tonight as they face Colorado, who was the worst team in the league last season.

Colorado did get off to a surprisingly decent start this season, but not surprisingly that has subsided. They've lost six of nine coming into tonight, including B2B losses over the weekend to Calgary and Minnesota. Though seventh in the league in goals per game, one would have to go back nearly two full weeks to find the last time the Avs scored more than three regulation goals in a game. Goaltender Semyon Varlamov is back tonight, but he had been struggling w/ an .878 save percentage his L4 starts. The Avs are 24th in goals allowed per game this year and 27th on the penalty kill. That's going to mean trouble against a Winnipeg club that comes in ranked 6th in goals per game and 4th on the power play. The Jets are a deep team offensively and they have arguably the best fourth line in the league.  

The Jets are also a top 10 team in goals allowed per game (7th), thanks in large part to 24-year Connor Hellebuyck, who has a .927 save percentage. With so many "surprising" teams off to good starts this year, now is the time to start figuring out who is "for real" and who isn't. I put Winnipeg in the former category while Colorado (who has already slipped down into last place) is in the latter. 10* Winnipeg

8* NY Rangers (2:05 ET): This will be the second time in three days that I've played the Rangers and why not? They cashed for me Friday, albeit needing overtime, as they beat Detroit 2-1. That was the Blueshirts' 9th win in the last 11 games as they continue to try and fight their way to the top of the congested Metro. The "problem" they are facing, at least right now, is that every other team ahead of them in the division has been winning too. They're still in sixth place, although only six points back of first. Sunday is a matchup they simply must take advantage of as Vancouver comes calling to MSG. The Canucks have been slightly better than expected so far this season, but they are prohibitive underdogs in this spot for a reason. (They're not very good!)

The Canucks are off a loss, in New Jersey, which actually did the Rangers no favors. (The Devils are one of the teams NY is chasing in the Metro). It was their third road game in four nights and this will be four in six as this current trip out East (six games) will carry them through the end of the month. The Canucks have gone six consecutive games w/o outshooting an opponent. That's never a good sign. Nor is the fact that the team isn't getting much offensive production from either Sedin twin. This being an early start time Sunday does the West Coast team no favors either. Over the L3 seasons, Vancouver is 27-60 SU when facing a team w/ a winning record. 

Meanwhile, the Rangers are a hot team that has won seven in a row here on home ice. Much of their recent success can be tied to the play of goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, who is sporting a .937 save percentage in November. In the L3 games, he has allowed just two goals on 94 shots. He made 40 saves in the win over Detroit Friday night, but shouldn't have to face nearly that many this afternoon. Offensively, the Rangers are top eight in goals per game and on the power play. On paper, this game just looks like a complete mismatch. 8* NY Rangers

8* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): It's a "thin line" between the top and bottom of the Metro this season, which is a stark contrast to last season when the division was incredibly top-heavy (four teams w/ 100+ points). The Rangers find themselves near the middle w/ 24 points, though things weren't necessarily looking as good until they won their last two games. Those wins, over Ottawa and Carolina, came by a combined score of 9-1. The Blueshirts have actually now won 8 of their last 10 w/ both losses coming on the road. Tonight they host Detroit, who has lost B2B games, both at home (allowed 10 goals in the process). It would appear as if we have two teams trending in opposite directions here. I'll take the one in better form, obviously. 

Detroit finished last season w/ only 79 points, putting them near the bottom in the Atlantic. Quite frankly, things could have been a lot worse were it not for a stunning 9-0 record in shootouts! The team was a perfect 11-0 in shootouts the L2 seasons, before dropping one to Columbus back on 11.11. Following wins over Calgary and Buffalo, the Red Wings finished their five-game homestand w/ losses to the Avs and Oilers. The former came in OT while they were dominated by the Oilers, 6-2 on Wednesday. The Wings managed only 46 shots total in the two games, which typically won't get it done. Nor will goaltender Jimmy Howard's .894 save percentage his L4 starts. He's allowed eight goals on the last 58 shots he's seen, including four on 19 shots vs. Edmonton before being pulled. 

Meanwhile, the Rangers have won seven straight at home and outscored the opposition by a 2:1 margin (22-11) during their 8-2 run. Considering the offense we've seen from them (7th in goals per game), the Rangers should be able to beat Howard multiple times tonight. Their goaltending had been a disappointment early on, but Henrik Lundqvist appears to have regained usual form w/ a superb .946 save percentage his L4 outings. 8* NY Rangers

8* Minnesota (7:05 ET): I expected the Wild to take a bit of a step back this season, but not all the way down to last place in the Central, which is where they currently reside (tied w/ Colorado at 21 pts). But besides St. Louis, it's a very thin line between the top and the bottom and in the Western Conference right now and even two points can make a huge difference in a team's standing. The bottom line is that Minnesota has outscored the opposition (by 1 goal) this season and would be far better positioned if not for an 0-3 mark in games they went to OT or a shootout. Tonight, they host a Buffalo team that has played as poorly as any in the league so far. This should be an easy two points. 

The Sabres only wish that I could make the claim that they are an average team like the Wild. Their YTD goal differential (-26) is the worst in the Eastern Conference as they've lost six in a row, four of those coming by multiple goals. They last won a game on November 7th and rank dead last in the league in goals per game (2.3) and 28th in goals allowed (3.5). Their power plays also ranks 30th at 14.9%. Only one time this season has this team posted B2B victories. They did very nearly pull off an improbable comeback Monday vs. Columbus (trailed 3-0 entering third period), but still fell a goal short. They are 2-6 SU against the Western Conference this year. 

Minnesota has dropped B2B games itself, the last one in overtime against surprising New Jersey. This has been a very streaky team thus far in 2017 as prior to the B2B losses, they'd won four in a row including three shutouts, all of which were posted by Devan Dubnyk, who will be back between the pipes tonight. Dubnyk is the driving force behind the Wild ranking 8th in the league in goals allowed. It was a frustrating loss Monday to the Devils as not only did the Wild score multiple times on the power play, but they also had a commanding 36-25 edge in shots on goal. Though a road game, Buffalo is an opponent you want to see on the schedule right now and I look for the Wild to take advantage. 8* Minnesota

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): A number of "bad" teams from last season surprised me by getting off to decent starts this year. One of those is Vancouver, who was projected by many (myself included) to finish near the bottom of the league's standings. The Canucks' 21 points are more than respectable right now, especially when you consider they are 9-8 SU in regulation thus far. But, somewhat predictably, we have begun to see them falter w/ losses in four of the last five games. The most recent one came Saturday, in overtime, at home vs. St. Louis. Making that defeat particularly painful is that they blew a 3-1 lead. Now it's time to embark on a six-game road trip out East and I don't see this going very well for the Canucks. Go against them here. 

The Flyers currently find themselves at the bottom of the Metro thanks to a four-game losing streak. However, they have scored the same number of goals (56) as their opponents have this season. They too enter in off an OT loss, theirs coming here at home vs. Calgary Saturday night. They had a 39-31 edge in shots and led 3-1 after one period. But it still wasn't enough. The parallels w/ Vancouver continue as we find that Philly has had no luck in OT/shootouts this season, going 1-4 SU when a game goes into extra time. Their last two losses have both come past regulation as they fell in Winnipeg last Thursday in a SO. Though top defenseman Radko Gudas will be suspended for the next nine games, I'm not overly concerned about the Flyers giving up many goals tonight. They rank 8th in the league on that side of the ledger while Vancouver is just 26th in goals per game and 23rd on the power play.

What really surprises me here is that the Canucks have won six of their first nine road games. By the time this trip is over though, I suspect that record will be back below .500. Last year, they went just 12-26-3 SU away from home. A 27-46 SU record against the Eastern Conference (L3 seasons) doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence either. Goaltender Jacob Markstrom has a save percentage of only .888 his L4 starts, which is not good. Meanwhile, Philly is expected to go w/ the "rested and ready" Michael Neuvirth between the pipes tonight. He's been off the L6 games, but has a .935 save percentage in his three home starts this season. When on a losing skid of three or more games, the Flyers have gone 13-6 SU the L3 seasons. 8* Philadelphia

6* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): Few teams have "broken away from the pack" in the early going of this NHL season, but the Lightning definitely qualify as an exception to that rule. They currently lead the Atlantic w/ 32 points (league high) after winning five straight (8-1-1 L10). Tonight they find themselves matched up w/ an Islanders club that has started to build some "momentum" (there's that dreaded word again!) w/ B2B wins. But just as they were in all three meetings last season (outscored 14-2!), the Isles look to be severely outclassed here. Tampa Bay has suffered only two regulation losses all year and is a big favorite tonight on home ice, for good reason.

The Lightning rank #1 in the league in goals scored (4.0 per game) and #2 in goals allowed (2.4). I'd say that certainly qualifies them to be called the best team in the league right now. Their +30 goal differential is double that of the next best team in the league and 3x as great as all but two teams! They are coming off a dominant 6-1 win over Dallas Thursday night, right here at Amalie Arena. It was the ninth time already this season that they scored five or more goals and the third they scored at least six. The fact this team has 32 points through 19 games is considered "historically great" and they are 9-2 this season after scoring four or more goals the previous game.

There are two primary reasons not to like the visitors in this matchup. One is that their strength (goal scoring) is not as strong as the opponent. New York does rank third in the league in goals per game, but attempting to win a shootout against Tampa Bay is not wise. A wide-open type of game, which is what we are likely to see here, greatly favors the Lightning. Also, the Islanders are experiencing a rather dramatic home vs. road split this season. They are 6-0-2 SU in Brooklyn, but only 4-6 SU on the road. Also, as you may have guessed, the Lightning have a substantial edge between the pipes in this matchup. The Isles only rank 22nd in goals allowed and netminder Thomas Greiss has a pretty ugly .898 save percentage on the road. Likely starting in goal for the Lightning is Andrei Vasilevskiy and he's the primary reason the team ranks #2 in goals allowed w/ a .932 save percentage. 6* Tampa Bay

8* Columbus (7:05 ET): The Metro was a very "top-heavy" division last year and these were two of the four teams that finished w/ 100+ points and made the playoffs. Though the Blue Jackets finished slightly ahead of the Rangers in the standings, it was they that I expected to regress more here in 2017-18, simply based on the "quantum leap" they made in jumping from 76 points (last place finish) two seasons ago. However, it's the Rangers that have struggled more so far as they still have an overall losing record despite winning 7 of their last 10 games. It's been the goals allowed side of the ledger that has really hurt them as they currently rank 26th in that department, giving up an average of 3.4 per game. Columbus has been much better in that area (7th), allowing nearly a full goal per game less. Off B2B 2-1 wins, I'll take them on home ice.

This is already the third meeting of the season between these teams. Both have won on home ice w/ C-bus drawing "first blood" in October (3-1) and the Rangers returning the favor w/ a 5-3 win 11 days ago. Both games saw a matchup of Bobrovsky vs. Lundqvist in goal and the rubber match figures to as well. As alluded to earlier, this favors the Blue Jackets seeing as Bobrovsky checks in w/ a .928 save percentage overall and a .938 save percentage at home. Meanwhile, his former Vezina Trophy winning counterpart, Lundqvist, is is the midst of a real "down year." Lundqvist's save percentage is currently .897 on the road games, which is pretty bad.

Now offensively, Columbus desperately needs to pick up the pace. Their power play ranks dead last in the league at 9.6 percent and is 0 for its last 15. They have scored just four times in regulation the last four games as both wins came in extra time. But that's correctable and I don't see the offensive numbers staying down for long. Bobrovsky will be the difference maker in this one as it's not a good sign for the Rangers (or Lundqvist) that they're giving up an average of 38.7 shots per game on the road this season, a truly ghastly number.  The Blue Jackets are more rested coming into tonight and are 7-2 when facing an opponent w/ a losing record. 8* Columbus

8* San Jose (10:35 ET): Winners of six of their last seven, the Sharks are getting exemplary goaltending from both Martin Jones and Aaron Dell right now. Saturday night (against lowly Vancouver) may have marked the team's first shutout of the season, but the bottom line is that this team ranks #1 in the league in goals against at 2.3 per game. During the win streak, they've allowed two or fewer goals six times, the one exception not coincidentally being the lone loss. I like the matchup tonight vs. a Florida team that ranks next to last (30th) in goals allowed and penalty killing. San Jose has been off since Sunday, so they should be rested and ready to go tonight at home. The Panthers have lost six of their eight road games this season.

Florida is off a win, though they needed a shootout to get by Dallas at home on Tuesday. The win was just their second in the last eight games, so they've been trending in the exact opposite direction of San Jose lately. They were outshot 43-29 in that last game, so it was a bit of a fortunate win. Roberto Luongo came up w/ a rare big game in goal, stopping 40 shots. But w/ a save percentage of just .919 for the year, I wouldn't bank on him making it B2B strong performances. The big problem Luongo faces here is the number of shots on goal the Panthers are allowing, 36.6 per game, which is the highest average in the league. You're not going to win many games giving up that many shots. Also, there's the matter of the Panthers having won B2B games only one time this season and that was back in their second and third game.

The Sharks have the unique distinction of having the #1 and #2 goaltender in the league when it comes to goals against average. Jones is the probable starter tonight after he shut down the Kings Sunday in an important 2-1 win. He comes in sporting a 2.13 GAA, second only to Dell's 1.94. The team has been winning in spite of ranking in the bottom six in goals per game scored (2.7), but you have to figure that number will start to go up moving forward, especially after facing this particular opponent. Florida is just 1-6 SU this season after scoring 4+ goals the previous game. San Jose has put at least 31 shots on goal in six of the last seven games, so they should get plenty of opportunities to score tonight. Go w/ the rested and better team at home. 8* San Jose

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): I certainly view the Wild as an "early season disappointment" given this was a 106-point team last year. Granted, I did expect them to slip some, but not to the point they'd be in last place in the Central Division. However, there are signs that upward mobility is set to take hold as the club has won B2B games, including 1-0 at Philadelphia on Saturday. That was their second straight shutout on the road (beat Montreal 3-0 last Thurs) and now they get to play host to the Flyers Tuesday. Perhaps we should have expected the Flyers to lose that game to the Wild Saturday as they've won B2B games only one time thus far. It's essentially been alternating wins and losses all year (have lost B2B games twice), but that pattern won't hold tonight. 

Minnesota has essentially been a "two-man show" of late. Jason Zucker has scored the team's last six goals while Dubnyk has stopped 90 of the last 92 shots he's seen. He made a season-best 41 saves against Montreal last Thursday, then followed it up w/ 32 more against the Flyers Saturday. Now, after dropping both meeting to the Flyers last season, the Wild are in position to return the favor tonight. Dubnyk will of course be in goal again and it's best to ride a hot goalie like him. As for the offense, Zucker may be carrying things, but I expect the other players to start stepping up as well. The team should be thrilled to be back at home for the first time in 10 days.

Philly has been shut out twice in its last five games, not a good sign when facing a red-hot goaltender. They are 3-0 this season after being held to one goal or less the previous game, but this home and home is a unique situation. The Flyers have actually fallen into last place tie themselves in the Metro. It's a thin line between last and second place, but you could say the same for Minnesota in the Central as well. Both teams have outscored the opposition this season. But I don't expect the Flyers to maintain their 4th place ranking in goals allowed (Wild are 7th) moving forward and Brian Elliott has already been outdueled by Dubnyk once. It should happen again here with the scene shifting to the "Land of 10,000 Lakes." 8* Minnesota

10* Washington (7:05 ET): This is a marquee matchup for the league on a Sunday night as two teams loaded with potential meet in the Nation's capital. The Caps have won multiple Presidents Trophies (most points in regular season), but that's never helped them come playoff time as neither this or any previous incarnations have even advanced to a Stanley Cup Finals. As for the Oilers, this year's team had fans hearkening back to the glory days of the 1980's (w/ Wayne Gretzky), but so far it's been a disappointment as they only have 13 points, which is tied for third fewest in the entire league. They are last in the league in both goals scored and in penalty killing. That's not a good sign for this matchup and I'm on the home team.

It certainly doesn't help Edmonton's cause here that they're playing the second game of a back to back. Last night, they lost to the Rangers, 4-2. Sure enough, it was the Oilers "leaky" PK unit that cost them as they gave up not one, but TWO PP goals in the second period, which was the difference in the game. Granted, the Rangers have now won six straight. But Washington will come in as winners of four of five, including a 4-1 victory Friday over another marquee opponent, that being Pittsburgh. I will concede that I do eventually expect an "uptick" from Edmonton as they lead the league in shots per game despite being last in scoring. That discrepancy is obviously due to start evening out. But it won't happen against this opponent.

Because Edmonton is playing in the second game of a B2B, I expect Washington to have a major edge in between the pipes tonight. They'll almost certainly start Braden Holtby, who has a .944 save percentage in his six home starts this year. Meanwhile, the Oilers are likely to have to turn to backup Laurent Brossoit, whose save percentage is a very ugly .854 thus far. Perhaps they'll try and send Cam Talbot out on consecutive nights, but that would probably be a mistake given he's started the L11 games for the Oilers. The Caps have also won the L5 times Holtby has started. He was in goal for the team's 5-2 win in Edmonton and made 38 saves. 10* Washington

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): This will be the second consecutive time where I'm playing AGAINST Minnesota. Wednesday, I went against them in Toronto and they lost 4-2. At the time, it was their third consecutive loss. Now they have won a game since, shutting out the Habs 3-0 on Thursday. But don't allow that one victory to cloud the fact that this team is still in last place in the Central Division (only 14 pts) and gave up 41 shots to Montreal. Philadelphia is off a big win Thursday vs. Chicago, here at home, and can now claim a goal differential that is better than all but four teams i the league right now! They are outshooting opponents this year while the Wild are not and I give a significant edge here to the better team on home ice.

The Flyers are getting some pretty strong goaltending from both Brian Elliott (.934 save percentage L4 starts) and Michael Neuvirth (.928 overall). It is likely to be the former starting tonight. That's a good thing considering Elliott has a 9-2 career mark vs. the Wild w/ a 2.07 goals against average and .915 save percentage. He made 38 saves to beat Chicago Thursday, further illustrating the fact that he's in fine form right now. Offensively, the Flyers have one of the best top lines in the sport. The Giroux-Couturier-Voracek line has combined for 23 goals and 60 points overall, making them the 2nd highest scoring line in the entire league right now, trailing only the superb Stamkos line in Tampa Bay. Something else to note is that Philly swept the season series against Minnesota last year, limiting them to just 52 shots total in the two games. 

The Wild got a huge effort from Devan Dubnyk (41 saves) against Montreal, but overall he's having a bit of a down year. Because of an injury to backup Alex Stalock, this will be the sixth consecutive game in which Dubnyk has started and you have to wonder if fatigue will start to be an issue for him. Offensively, Minnesota has its issues as well. One player (Jason Zucker) has accounted for the team's last five goals, including the hat trick Thursday, the entirety of which came in the third period. Furthermore, you have to wonder what the Wild's offensive numbers would look like were it not for four short-handed goals in the last eight games. That certainly cannot be counted on to continue moving forward. This is a banged up team right now that desperately misses Zach Parise, plus this will be their fourth straight road game. Not only were they swept by the Flyers last year, they are 0-4 against them the L2 seasons. 10* Philadelphia

8* Calgary (9:05 ET): The Red Wings plummeted to almost the bottom of the Atlantic Division last year, finishing with only 79 points (one more than Buffalo) and out of the playoffs for 1st time in 27 seasons. They were actually fairly fortunate that things weren't worse as they would have been if not for a perfect 9-0 record in shootouts, a mark that certainly seems unsustainable, even though they've won both shootouts they've been a part of this season. A bit of a bounce back for 2017-18 seemed inevitable, but I'm still not a buyer on the Red Wings, even after they've started the current Western Canada trip 2-0. They will not sweep though as I like Calgary here. 

Both teams can actually claim Vancouver as their most recent opponent. Detroit won in B.C., 3-2, scoring the game-winner w/ just 1:14 remaining in regulation after blowing a two-goal lead. The following night, Calgary shockingly lost on home ice to the Canucks, 5-3. They did so despite allowing only 21 shots to an unrested team. That was a real "kick in the pants" for Flames' fans, who have seen their team struggle to score goals this year. Calgary is currently 30th in goals per game, yet still has a winning record and had won three in a row prior to Tuesday's loss. The situation isn't great here for a Detroit team that ranks just 22nd in goals per game as it's their third road game in five nights. They've been off the L2 nights, but are just 15-26 the L3 seasons when playing w/ exactly two days' rest. I just can't see the Wings winning for a third straight time as ML underdogs. 

Detroit is also giving up a pretty high number of shots per game (34.1) so far this year. But they've been bailed out by great goaltending, whether it's Jimmy Howard or Petr Mrazek between the pipes. I'm not sure that can continue to carry them, however. A .942 save percentage from the L5 games will be difficult to maintain and Calgary's offense has started to come around w/ a total of eight goals scored the L2 games. The Flames have been victimized by some pretty strong goaltending so far, especially at home, but we should see that start to subside moving forward. At the same time, I look for goalie Mike Smith to continue his steady play (.923 save percentage). 8* Calgary