10* Over Thunder/Clippers (10:35 ET): Neither of these teams got off to the start they were hoping for this season, but as we've seen recently - from both - they have the talent to turn things around in a hurry. It took OKC less time as they've climbed to fifth in the Western Conference after initially struggling to integrate their "Big 3" of Westbrook, George and Anthony. Poor play in "clutch" situations late in games, particularly on the defensive end, also hurt. But they are a solid fourth in efficiency. The Clippers have had to overcome losing Chris Paul to the Rockets and Blake Griffin to injury, but Griffin is back and they've now won four straight. I expect a good, high-scoring game here. Take the Over.

This is the second game of a back to back for the Thunder, both TV games. Anyone who watched on ESPN last night saw a team that had no issues scoring as they dropped 133 pts on what appeared to be a disinterested Lakers team. Now, I don't think for a second they'll score that many tonight. But that won't be neccessary either. Three of the Thunder's previous four games have gone Over by double digits. They've shot the ball quite well recently, 52.4% to be exact the L5 games, and averaged 115.4 PPG. Westbrook, Anthony and George all scored 20+ points last night. This isn't a normal back to back as they're playing in the same venue two nights in a row. More than two months into the season, I like the way the three of them have started to play together. 

The Clippers have won six of seven, scoring 106 or more in every game. Four of the last five games have gone Over w/ them averaging 114.8 PPG (shooting 50.9%) and they average 109.0 PPG at home for the season. They have a better bench than in recent years, primarily all due to Lou Williams, who has as many 30+ pt games off the bench this season as all other reserves in the league. Griffin has scored 21+ pts in all three games since his return from injury. When these teams played back in November, it was a 120-111 final (in favor of OKC). Another key is the Clips give up 105.7 PPG. 10* Over Thunder/Clippers

10* Over Rockets/Magic (7:05 ET): This would appear to be a complete mismatch on paper as well as a "get well" spot for the Rockets, who have failed to cover six straight times. But they did snap a season-high five-game (SU) losing streak on New Year's Eve, beating the Lakers 148-142 in double overtime. Now, the "elephant in the room" here is that James Harden is out (indefinitely) due to a hamstring injury. It will be interesting to see how Houston performs w/o him. My guess is they'll be fine against bottom-feeders like the Magic. Now, this game isn't likely to be as high-scoring as the Rockets' last one, but it doesn't have to be, plus take note that even w/o OT, that last game was tied 122-122 at the end of regulation. Take the Over here.

Prior to the final 10 days of 2017, Houston had clearly emerged as the top challenger to Golden State's throne. Consider that their five consecutive losses were more than they experienced in their first 29 games! Led by Harden, they are ahead of Golden State in offensive efficiency this season and #1 overall. But, unlike last year (when they would have fallen completely off w/o Harden), now they have Chris Paul to lean on. An Orlando team that is just dreadful defensively (allows 110.0 PPG) should be all too welcoming for the undermanned Rockets here. Both Magic home games that have had a total of 220+ this season went Over. 

Houston's defense has been much improved this season and Harden certainly isn't going to be as missed on that end of the floor. That being said, I still anticipate Orlando scoring plenty tonight. During the course of their six-game ATS losing streak, the Rockets have allowed 112 or more points five times. They've allowed 121+ in regulation FOUR times. So, we've already begun to see some "slippage" defensively here. A key though is I expect Houston to shoot better tonight than they have recently (43.3% L5 games). Harden went down in the 4Q vs. the Lakers and after he left Paul scored 15 of his 28 pts. Orlando has been just terrible of late (4-26 SU L30 games!), but they too will shoot better tonight than they did in the last game. They were just 36.5% overall from the field in a 98-95 loss to Brooklyn on Monday, including 6 of 31 from three-point range. 10* Over Rockets/Magic

10* Over Bucks/Raptors (7:35 ET): All of the chatter about the Eastern Conference tends to focus on Cleveland and Boston. Yet, by several metrics, it is Toronto that comes into 2018 as the team playing the best in the conference. Milwaukee is another team looking to "crash the party" come playoff time, and even though they've been outscored this season, they sit sixth in the East (same as last year). These two teams clash New Year's Day (why else would I be talking about them?). Though they did struggle a bit at the end of the month, the Raptors did just go 11-3 SU in December and they should play well here at home where they're 13-1 SU for the year. Milwaukee is off B2B wins, over Minnesota and Oklahoma City, the latter of which was not w/o controversy (read one!). I'm on the Over in this one as I expect both teams to have no problem scoring.

Toronto has NOT shot well recently (40.5 FG% L5 Games), but here at home this is a prolific offense. They average 114.4 PPG on 48% shooting here North of the Border. Thus, it should not be surprising that the Over is also 9-5 at the Air Canada Center. We saw how dominant they can be here on Friday, albeit against Atlanta, in a 111-98 win. The team didn't even shoot that well in the win. But this remains a top five offense in terms of efficiency and a difference between this game and last is they'll be facing a fellow top 10 offense. 

This won't be the same Bucks team that the Raptors eliminated in LY's playoffs as Milwaukee now has PG Eric Bledsoe. The Bucks went Over in 11 of 12 games (one push) in December, before staying Under in the last two. They held the T'wolves and Thunder to just 95.5 PPG, but it will be far more challenging defensively tonight. The Minnesota win required a massive comeback, one that saw them hold the T'wolves to just 12 pts in the 4th quarter. Then came the OKC game w/ the controversial ending as Giannis Antetokounmpo clearly stepped out of bounds before hitting the game winner. Had there been overtime, who knows, that would have probably been another Over for the list. The bottom line though is Milwaukee scored 38 pts in the 1Q vs. OKC and it never should have gotten to that point. The Bucks do allow 107 PPG on the road. 10* Over Bucks/Raptors 

10* Under Nets/Spurs (8:35 ET): It was rare not to see the Spurs play on X-Mas, but I'm sure Greg Popovich's team welcomed the day off, following a three-game road tip. You've got to tip your cap to them (again!) as despite not having Kwahi Leonard at the start of the year, they still have managed to maintain the third best record in the Western Conference. Tonight, on paper, looks like an easy one as they host the struggling Nets, who have dropped five of six. This is a battle of contrasting styles as Brooklyn plays at the 4th fastest tempo in the league while San Antonio plays at the second slowest. I'll side w/ the more proven commodity (SA) establishing its "style of game," which means Under is the way to go here (too many points to lay).

The Spurs, as per usual, rank near the top of the league in defensive efficiency (tied for third). They allow a league-low 98.0 PPG and are one of only two teams to currently be allowing below triple digits (Boston is the other). Over the L5 games, four of them wins, they're allowing an average of just 95.4 PPG. The one game they lost though (Utah), they scored only 89 pts themselves. Still, they've allowed more than 105 pts just one time all month and that was against one of the top two offenses in the league (Houston). Brooklyn may like to go fast on offense, but they're not efficient as they rank just 19th in points per possession. That explains why 11 of their last 14 games have stayed Under. 

Defensively, these teams are obviously "worlds apart" as the Nets allow the fourth most points per game in the league. But San Antonio plays at that deliberate pace, so while they may be efficient, I don't have them scoring a ton of points in this spot. Realize that the Spurs have failed to hit 100 pts SEVEN times in December and have topped 105 pts only three times. One of those was the last game against Sacramento (who is even worse defensively than Brooklyn). That was one of just three games this month the Spurs shot 50% or better. The Spurs are a perfect 10-0 Under this season facing a team that allows at least 106 PPG. They are also 7-1 Under when playing w/ exactly two days rest. Also, note the final score of Brooklyn's last game is misleading as it went into overtime. 10* Under Nets/Spurs

8* Over Cavs/Warriors (3:05 ET): My read on Cleveland has been pretty consistent this year: Maybe they'll wind up as the best team in the East, but it's difficult to take them seriously in a potential NBA Finals matchup with either the Warriors or Rockets given a woeful defense that currently ranks 27th in efficiency. To put that ranking in its proper perspective, the only teams giving up more points per possession are: Phoenix, Atlanta and Sacramento (three worst teams in the league?). Now they play old nemesis Golden State, who is #2 in the league in offensive efficiency. The Cavs are a perfect 6-0 ATS as underdogs so far this season, but are also #3 in offensive efficiency themselves. This has "Over" written all over it.

These teams are obviously no strangers to one another. This will be the third year in a row they're meeting on X-Mas Day (home team won each time) and of course they've met in three straight NBA Finals. The Warriors famously "blew a 3-1 lead" in the '16 NBA Finals (Cleveland's 1st pro sports championship of any kind since the 1950s!), but there was no such meltdown in LY's Finals as the Dubs finished things off in five games. The last four all went Over the total and the oddsmakers couldn't set the O/U lines high enough as all of the games saw at least 231 total pts scored, three of them seeing 245 or more scored! The O/U line here seems like "child's play" in comparison. 

Now neither squad is necessarily at full strength or similar to what they were in LY's Finals. Golden State won't have Steph Curry, who has been out since early in the month, but they have the luxury of still having Kevin Durant (not to mention Draymond Green and Klay Thompson). I'm going on the record here and guaranteeing the Warriors will shoot better here than they did Saturday when they were held to a season-low 81 points by Denver, which included 3 from 27 from three-point range. Cleveland has given up 112+ points in four of its last six games and is allowing a 49.1 FG% its last five. Golden State averages 115 PPG and shoots better than 50% from the field. Not to be outdone, the Cavs average 111.3 PPG, have made at least 10 three-pointers in 22 straight games and last failed to top 100 pts all the way back on October 29th. 8* Over Cavs/Warriors

10* Under Bucks/Hornets (7:05 ET): This is the second leg of a home and home between these two teams. My worst fears concerning Charlotte were confirmed last night (they were my 10* play of the week!) as they (again!) failed to hold a lead and had to settle for a 'push', losing by five. Milwaukee scored the game's final nine points. Note that result doesn't even add to the Hornets' atrocious 0-13 SU record in games decided by THREE points or less the L2 seasons. Also note that the game just barely snuck Over the total (by 4 pts over closing line), the seventh straight Bucks game to do so! The Over is now 9-0-1 in Bucks games this month. But familiarity not only breeds contempt, it can also breed an Under and that's what will happen here. 

Charlotte had the lead going into the fourth quarter last night, but scored only 19 pts in the final 12 minutes. That was despite losing Dwight Howard to a finger injury just two minutes into the game. But the real blow came in the final two minutes when Kemba Walker left (injury undisclosed) and the Hornets never scored again. (How cursed is this team?). Now there's a chance that neither Howard nor Walker play and that would obviously be a massive blow to a team already playing w/o Cody Zeller. The Hornets shot 46.2% from three-point range yday (12 of 26), a number that would be difficult to duplicate even if Walker played tonight. The team is 4-1 Under this season when playing in the second game of a back to back.

Milwaukee is not a great defensive team by any means, but last night's effort was their best (in terms of points allowed) in nearly two weeks. Obviously, if Howard, Walker or both did not play here, it would be a huge boost. Charlotte does not shoot the ball well to begin with (43.7 FG%) and would be totally lost w/o Walker, who had 32 pts last night. So, defensively, I think the Bucks are going to be just fine tonight. What about the offense? Well, playing w/o rest works against them too as it was basically three players - Antetokounmpo, Middleton and Bledsoe - carrying the load last night. That trio combined for 78 pts and had 22 of the team's 26 in the 4Q. Asking for anywhere close to a repeat of that seems like a 'tall order.' Milwaukee's Over streak ends here. 10* Under Bucks/Hornets

10* Over Cavs/Bucks (8:05 ET): In my analysis for Sunday's 10* Game of the Week play (on Cleveland), I was sure to mention that the Cavs needed tremendous improvement on the defensive end before I can start taking them seriously as a threat to beat either the Warriors or Rockets in a potential NBA Finals. Even after winning 18 of their last 19 games, they still only rank 27th in defensive efficiency and the three teams below them are: Atlanta, Phoenix and Sacramento (i.e. the three worst teams in the league). At the same time though, they have scored 100+ points in 24 straight games now and made at least 14 three-pointers in 20 straight. That makes taking them Over the total a pretty easy call for me. 

Surprisingly, however, six of Cleveland's last eight games have stayed Under the total. Sunday at Washington, they really benefited from the Wizards (particularly Bradley Beal going cold in the 4th quarter). Saturday's win was over a Utah team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire league. Tonight's matchup w/ Milwaukee will be an entirely different "animal." Not only have the Bucks gone Over in each of their five previous games (7-0-1 L8!), but 8 of their last 10 matchups w/ the Cavs have also gone Over. Now, Cleveland is probably NOT the team Milwaukee wanted to see on the schedule Tuesday as they've dropped three in a row coming in, surrendering exactly 115 pts in each loss. They've allowed at least 100 pts in eight consecutive games.

Making Cleveland's win in D.C. Sunday night look more impressive is the fact they were in the second game of a back to back and w/o Dwyane Wade. Tristan Thompson, working his way back from a calf injury, only played 14 minutes. Wade will play tonight and Thompson's workload should increase. As alluded to earlier, scoring should not be an issue for these Cavaliers as they are averaging 112.0 PPG on the road and rank 3rd in offensive efficiency (behind the Warriors and Rockets) overall. But, defensively, those issues persist as they are allowing 107.1 PPG. Over the L5 games, opponents have shot 46.5% from the field against them. At the same time, Milwaukee opponents are shooting 48.3% the L5 games. The last meeting between these two saw 243 total pts scored (no overtime!) and both shot better than 50% from the floor. 10* Over Cavs/Bucks

8* Under Heat/Hornets (7:05 ET): In surveying the current landscape in the Eastern Conference, I would have to call these two Southeast Division rivals my two biggest disappointments. Prior to the season, I had both making the playoffs. Right now, I don't believe either will. In the case of Charlotte, it's been an ongoing series of bad luck - whether you want to talk injuries or an inability to win close games. For Miami, I'm still not entirely sure what's gone wrong here. But I did just (successfully) play against them Weds night, hosting Portland, as they lost 102-95 as small favorites. Charlotte, meanwhile, has to be happy w/ the fact it just split a pair of road games w/ OKC and Houston. I have no read on the side here, so it's the total we're going to analyze.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom third in the league in offensive efficiency. That right there should give you an initial glimpse into where I'm going here. The Heat are one of six teams in the league that has gone Under in at least 60% of their games and that includes three straight. Perhaps Wednesday's game staying Under should have come as no surprise considering Portland is the top Under team in the league right now. After scoring 60 pts in the first half, Miami was held to just 35 in the 2H. They are 6-1 Under this season when facing an opponent that has a losing record (Charlotte is 10-17 SU). Road games have seen the Heat go 9-4 Under and that's a trend that has persisted across multiple seasons as the Under is 63-38-2 in all their road games the L3 seasons.

Being that they're in the same division, these teams obviously meet regularly. They have a history of going Under against one another as that's the way 23 of the 30 all-time meetings in Charlotte have gone, including six of the last seven. One thing you can "tip your cap" to Miami for is the fact they hold opponents just under 100 PPG on the road (99.9!). Only San Antonio and Boston have been stingier away from home. Charlotte is not a great shooting team, particularly from distance as they rank 24th in three-point FG's made and percentage. They were just 5 of 20 from behind the arc against Houston. They really miss Cody Zeller, not to mention their HC Steve Clifford. Prior to losing to Portland, the Heat had held their previous two opponents both under 90 pts. That's a real possibility again here as Charlotte has shot below 41.5% from the floor in four of its last six contests. 8* Under Heat/Hornets

8* Over Sixers/Cavs (8:05 ET): Cleveland saw it's 13-game win streak come to an end last night in Indiana and ironically it was a fourth quarter OFFENSIVE meltdown that deserved the blame. All of a sudden, after scoring 86 pts through three quarters, LeBron and company "couldn't hit water from a boat" as they didn't make a single field goal attempt in the first six minutes of the 4Q. That was a 63-57 game at halftime mind you, that ended up "only" being a 102-106 final (stayed Under). But in addition to their usual offensive prowess, the Cavs remain a poor defensive outfit (24th in efficiency) even w/o Derrick Rose. They, like their opponent tonight, are due for an Over and that's the way I see this one going.

Philly's famed "process" has hit a bit of a speedbump recently, most notably w/ bad losses to Phoenix and the Lakers in the L2 games. I can't say that I'm surprised to see them giving at least "a little" back as LY this team benefited from generous spreads en route to finishing w/ the league's #1 ATS record. They got off to another strong start at the pay window this year, but are now just 1-5 ATS their L6 games. Their L4 games have all stayed Under, but the last two both featured very high O/U lines. The Sixers' defensive efficiency may be better than Cleveland's, but they give up more points (110.4 per game on the road!) thanks in large part to the pace they play at, which ranks as fourth fastest (in terms of number of possessions per game) in the league.

Cleveland's last three games have all stayed Under, but keep in mind that two of those were against Chicago and Sacramento, the two worst offensive teams in this league. At home this year, the Cavs are still giving up a ghastly 109.5 PPG. They have, however, scored 100+ pts in 19 consecutive games, a franchise record. They've also made at least 10 three-pointers in 15 straight games. Now Philly did not shoot well at all in the 1st meeting vs. Cleveland this year (lost 113-91) and that was w/ Joel Embiid scoring 30 pts. Embiid reportedly won't play tonight (rest), but I can't see the team shooting just 37.5% again against this Cleveland defense. Take the Over. 8* Over Sixers/Cavs

10* Over Thunder/Nets (10:05 ET): If you're wondering why it's such a late start time between these teams, take note that the game is NOT taking place in Brooklyn, but rather Mexico City. This neutral site affair might seem like a difficult matchup to handicap, but to me the most likely scenario is that each team "forgets to pack" its defense. For the Nets, they may not even have much to pack in the way of defense. Playing at one of the fastest tempos in the entire league, they already give up an average of 112.3 points per game, an Eastern Conference high (only the Suns allow more). OKC may rank near the top of the league in defensive efficiency, but late in games, they struggle at that end of the floor. Take the Over.

We may look back at Tuesday as a "turning point" for the Thunder's season. This team's record ought to be a lot better given that they've outscored the opposition this season by roughly three points per game. But they've been undermined by a failure to close out close games. They are tied w/ Washington for the most losses in the league by three points or less (4), however, they did come from behind to defeat Utah (100-94) on Tuesday. Granted, it was still their sixth consecutive ATS loss (1-8 L9), but they were able to rally back from a 17-point 2nd half deficit. There's been much hand wringing over Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George all seeing their individual scoring decrease, but to me, that was to be expected. I don't see them having much trouble scoring in this game, that's for sure. 

Brooklyn can take advantage of the fact that the Thunder has allowed an average of 48.7% shooting its L5 games here. Given the added number of possessions that tend to take place in their games, that means more points than usual for an OKC opponent. The Nets come in off a 20-pt win over lowly Atlanta, who they held to 90 pts on 36.6% shooting. I looked it up and at no point this season have the Nets held B2B opponents below 100 points. In fact, it was just the 4th time all year holding an opponent under triple digits. The three previous instances have all seen them come back and allow a minimum of 112 PPG the next time out. In an unfamiliar environment, I expect little defense from either side. 10* Over Thunder/Nets

10* Over Bucks/Celtics (7:35 ET): These two teams were both expected to be near the top of the Eastern Conference this season, but while the Celtics have exceeded expectations thus far, the Bucks have clearly fallen below them. That being said, Milwaukee does come into this game riding a three-game win streak. However, be aware that two of those victories came at Sacramento's expense. Boston, who has the distinction of owning both the league's top SU and ATS mark (at 20-4, 18-5-1 respectively) has won its last two games and punched a ticket for me (Over) in their last game, a 116-111 win over Phoenix. That's the way I'm going here as well. Take the Over. 

Though they continue to lead the league in defense (both points allowed and efficiency), the Celtics have seen their offense come alive in recent weeks. They've averaged an impressive 111.6 points over their last five games, scoring at least 108 in every game. For that Phoenix game, I spoke of how the Suns' fast tempo was likely to create an environment conducive for an Over. That's exactly how things played out w/ the Suns attempting roughly 17 more shots than the Celtics' typically face per game. Milwaukee's pace is far more deliberate, but it also helps that Boston is shooting the ball lights out recently w/ four straight games above 50% from the field. Bottom line is I expect a much more high scoring affair than we saw the last time these teams met, where the result was a 96-89 Boston win last month in Milwaukee. 

Interestingly, Bucks' road games are typically far more high scoring than their home games. We see an average of 212.3 points total scored in their road games, compared to just 201.4 at home. Like Boston, they've seen a fairly substantial increase in scoring recently as they've averaged 109 pts over the L5 games while shooting the ball at a 50.1% clip. Four of those last five games have gone Over the total. Meanwhile, seven of the Celtics' last eight games have gone Over. The Bucks are 8-3 SU since acquiring PG Eric Bledsoe, making them a much different team now than they were last month when they faced Boston twice. I already mentioned that the last meeting was low-scoring, but the first matchup (here in Boston) was a 108-100 final, actually won by the Bucks, as they drew the C's one-night removed from the Gordon Hayward injury and a tough loss in Cleveland. (Boston is 20-2 SU since that game!). This is a low total for a game between two teams that have both been shooting the ball well recently. 10* Over Bucks/Celtics

10* Over Clippers/T'wolves (7:05 ET): The immediate future of these two franchises are very different. The Clippers, perennial playoff participants the last several years, are sinking fast thanks to a multitude of injuries, not to mention Chris Paul's departure in the offseason. One would hope that Saturday represents "rock bottom" as the team fell - by 26 points - to the lowly Mavericks. Were it not for a 4-0 SU start, things would be even bleaker as the Clips have dropped 13 of 17 overall. Tonight, they face a Minnesota team that's on an upward trajectory in the front end of a "home and home." The T'wolves' numbers aren't all that impressive, but the key is they've been far "luckier" in close games, which is the reason for the improvement in the won-loss record. I'm looking for a high-scoring game on Sunday between these two.

It should be noted that the Clippers have just three wins (came in all in a row) in their last 14 games overall and they came at the expense of the Hawks, Kings and Lakers and two of those were by three points or less. Since then, they've been blowout twice, first by Utah (by 19 at home) and then yday in Dallas. Saturday saw them shoot a woeful 34.7% overall from the field, a percentage which almost HAS to increase tonight. Note that, for the most part, this team has shot well recently as they're still at 48.1% overall the L5 games, even including yday. The only other time they were held below 85 pts this year, they came back to score 116 the following game. The Over is also 4-0 the L3 seasons when the Clips are a road underdog of 12.5 points or more. 

Minnesota is off a loss too; though theirs was far more excusable as it came at OKC, 111-107 as five-point underdogs. That was after they dropped 120 in an impressive road win over the Pelicans. So it's been back to back Overs for the T'wolves, who are also getting healthier w/ PG Jeff Teague now back in the lineup. If there is one issue w/ Minnesota, and this is uncharactertistic of a Tom Thibodeau coached team, it's that they're still not very good defensively. They give up over 107 points per game and rank 23rd in efficiency. Fortunately for them though, they're facing an opponent that's giving up 109.4 PPG its last five. Like I said, expect a good old fashioned shootout in this one. 10* Over Clippers/T'wolves

8* Over Suns/Celtics (1:05 ET): We know that Boston is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and allows a league-low 96.8 PPG. But they should certainly "get theirs" here in a matchup w/ a team that allows the MOST points per game in the league (115.8), Phoenix. With the Suns also playing at the fastest tempo in the league, there should be no shortage of possessions in this game, lending itself to an Over. The Celtics have scored at least 108 pts in six of their last seven games and a six-game Over streak was snapped their last time out. Meanwhile, Phoenix is an incredible 20-3 Over the L3 seasons when playing w/ exactly two days rest, which they are here. That includes a perfect 4-0 mark this season. Take the Over.

The Suns are 6-2 Over their last eight games overall and just gave up 131 pts in their last game, to Detroit. They let the Pistons shoot a blistering 57.3% from the floor and trailed by as many as 36. The Pistons shot better than 62% in the 1H and had a 36-point 1st quarter. Again, none of this should come as much of a surprise as no team in the league is giving up more points per game or possession. This is their fourth road game in six nights and only twice in the last eight games have they given up fewer than 113 points. The two they did not both came against Chicago, the worst offensive team in the league. Games against the Eastern Conference are averaging over 225 PPG and that average would be even higher if you exclude the Bulls.

The Celtics are shooting at only 43.9% from the floor at home, a percentage that almost HAS to go up. Sure enough, over the last five games, the team is at 49.1% overall. They've been at 50% or better three straight games, the last two at home, scoring exactly 108 pts on all three occasions. Kyrie Irving has gone for 30+ points four times in the last five games, including a game-high 36 in a win over the 76ers Wednesday. More often that not, the Suns do top 100 points, largely due to the pace at which they play. This will be a higher scoring game than usual for Boston. 8* Over Suns/Celtics

10* Under Bulls/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Denver is off a horrific showing Tuesday night Utah where they managed only 77 points in a 30-point loss to the short-handed Jazz. Speaking of "horrific showings," I present to you the 2017-18 Chicago Bulls. This team is atrocious and should be considered to be the worst in the league right now. Now, we knew the Bulls would be bad coming into the season, but they are currently "exceeding expectations" as they're being outscored by a mind-numbing 14 points per 100 possessions. They are the worst offensive team in the league (94.6 PPG) and I see little reason to "believe in them" here as they've shot only 37.7% from the field in the last two games while averaging 92.0 PPG. Take the Under. 

Coming off a terrible loss, the Nuggets should bounce back tonight, but to what degree? It's true that their scoring average does rise to 112.1 PPG here at home. But they'll be the ones doing all the "heavy lifting" here for Over bettors. If this game gets out of hand, which it very well may do, then I can see a low-scoring fourth quarter. Sure enough, Denver has a 7-3 Under record this season when facing a team w/ a losing record. Three times in the last five games, they've shot below 43% from the field, "bottoming out" w/ Tuesday's performance when they were at just 35.9%. 

Perhaps is that they are w/o Paul Milsap. I still think the Nuggets have the depth to overcome that injury, but the bottom line is that they haven't topped 104 pts in any of their last three games. Against Utah, they scored only 28 points after halftime! Chicago, however, has only topped 94 twice in its past 10 games! Additionally, they've been below 42% in six consecutive contests. Maybe Denver gets a slight offensive "bump" from returning home, but it won't be enough to help this one get Over the total as the Bulls are simply too offensively inept. In their three games vs. Northwest Division teams so far, Chicago has averaged a miserable 76.0 PPG. 10* Under Bulls/Nuggets

10* Over Thunder/Magic (7:05 ET): By most "traditional" measures (like won-loss record), OKC is having a very disappointing season. Despite adding a couple of All-Stars (Carmello Anthony, Paul George) to the roster in the offseason, the Thunder are just 8-11 straight up and outside the top eight in the Western Conference (currently 9th). However, this is still a good team that has played significantly better than its record. Don't believe me? Take, for instance, the fact that they've actually outscored the opposition or that they rank second in the league in defensive efficiency. It's been an inability to perform in the clutch that has cost them thus far. As a result, I'll shy away from them laying points on the road here. To the total we go though and I like the Over here.

Orlando got off to a surprisingly strong start this season, winning six of their first eight games. This is a franchise that has not made the playoff since Dwight Howard left town in 2012. So things were trending in a positive direction for the 1st time in a LONG time. But that hasn't lasted. The Magic have now dropped nine in a row and 11 of the last 13 games. Defense, rather lack of it, has been a major concern w/ the team allowing over 123 points per its last four games. In all but two games during the nine-game losing streak, they've allowed at least 110 pts to the opponent. So they're at the opposite end of the defensive spectrum compared to OKC. They rank 23rd in efficiency coming into tonight. 

The Thunder aren't exactly playing well now either as they have just one win in the last five games, ironically over Golden State. They just lost, outright, to Dallas as six-point favorites (97-81!) on Saturday. That followed another outright loss, this time to the Pistons, on Friday. I have to imagine this team will start to shoot better than its current clip of 43.9% moving forward. They shot just 36.2% from the floor against Dallas and that number almost certainly will be improved upon tonight, given the opponent they are facing. As for the Magic, they do shoot better than 38% from three-point range and have seen their last four games all go Over the total. They allowed both Philadelphia and Indiana (last 2 opponents) to both shoot better than 50% overall. OKC may be a perfect 7-0 Under vs. the Eastern Conference so far, but that trend comes to an end tonight! 10* Over Thunder/Magic

10* Under Grizzlies/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Memphis is in a really bad way right now as they're 0 for 6 - both SU and ATS - their last six games overall, the last four all coming w/o the services of PG Mike Conley, who is going to be out for an indefinite period of time. Denver, meanwhile, was blown out (by 30) in its last game (by Houston). So we have a pair of Western Conference teams "trying to pick up the pieces" here and the Nuggets have their own injury (Paul Milsap) that they're currently dealing with. (Although, they have the depth at the PF position to potentially overcome it). The Nuggets do average 113 points per game here at home, but that alone will NOT be enough to get this game Over the total. I'm on the Under here as the Grizzlies have not topped 94 pts in any of their three previous games.

In fact, I played against the Grizz Wednesday night, when they hosted lowly Dallas. I took the points and it turned out I didn't even need them as the Mavs won outright, 95-94 as six-point pups. It was a brutal loss as Harrison Barnes' banked in a 30-footer at the buzzer for the Dallas win. Initially, Memphis had led by as many as 18 in the 1H before getting outscored 35-16 in the third quarter. Turning the ball over 17 times certainly didn't help and that number can be directly attributed to Conley's absence. This is Memphis' first six-game losing streak since April of 2016. They scored just 38 pts in the second half vs. Dallas. Shooting 45.7% for the game was actually a drastic improvement from the previous two games when they were below 38%. 

I mentioned earlier that Denver has the depth to fight through the Milsap injury, but losing a player averaging 15.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists will definitely have a negative effect. Of course, Milsap alone couldn't have made up the difference in Wednesday's 125-95 beatdown at the hands of Houston either. The team shot only 40.2% from the field in that defeat. That leads me to bring up something that may be in the Grizzlies' favor here and that's the fact they've held their previous two opponents to 39.8% and 42.9% shooting respectively. The Under is 7-1 for them when facing winning teams and 6-2 when they're listed as the underdog. Each of the L3 games have gone Under. With both teams adjusting to life w/o a key player, I see the likelihood of some pretty ugly offensive efforts being likely here. 10* Under Grizzlies/Nuggets

8* Over Warriors/Thunder (8:05 ET): What a matchup we have here, the night before Thanksgiving, as the Warriors head to OKC to take on the Thunder. The game will be on ESPN. After a slow start to the season (by their lofty standard), Golden State has ascended to its usual spot atop the league. Boston may have a better record, but no one is outscoring its opponents by a larger margin than the Dubs (at +10.4 PPG) or has a better net efficiency rating. Not surprising is that the two-time NBA Champs lead the league in scoring (117.9 PPG) at the top efficiency playing at a top five pace. OKC has underachieved thus far as they have a losing record (7-9 SU) despite outscoring their foes by a healthy 4.6 points per game. Their defensive efficiency has been very good, but will be tested (severely) here. I like the Over.

Golden State has failed to cover its last four games. They opened this four-game road trip w/ a loss in Boston last Thursday, getting held to only 88 pts in a heavily-hyped matchup. They've since followed w/ wins over Philadelphia and Brooklyn, averaging 121 PPG. Both games easily went Over as they allowed 116 and 111 points. They're allowing 107.5 PPG, which obviously makes it hard to cover, another reason I'm not interested in laying the points here. The Dubs' defense will most certainly be tested tonight as OKC's own scoring average jumps to 107.1 PPG here at home (103.2 overall). Of course, GSW has more than enough firepower to counter whether or not Kevin Durant (sprained ankle) plays or not. Incredibly, they are operating at a higher efficiency than last season by about two points per 100 possessions. They lead the league in fast break scoring - by more than nine points per game over the next best team!

Oklahoma City's big issue this year has been close games. They are 0-8 SU in contests decided by three points or less. They may rank third overall in defensive efficiency, but they tend to fall apart on that end of the floor late in games. Their defensive efficiency in the 4Q ranks 24th and in the "clutch," they are allowing 1.47 points per possession, which would rank dead last in the league over the last 20 seasons. So again, whether or not they have Durant, Golden State should have no issues scoring here (they still have Curry, Thompson and Green). The Thunder have their own "Big 3" - Westbrook, George and Anthony - all of whom average more than 20 PPG. Golden State is 5-1 Over this season in road games if the O/U line is 220 pts or higher. 8* Over Warriors/Thunder

10* Over Blazers/Kings (10:05 ET): We've got two teams at opposite ends of the Western Conference spectrum here. Portland may only be 8-6 SU, but it has a scoring differential of +5.7 PPG, which is tied for the fifth best in all the league. Sacramento has the worst point differential in the entire league as they are getting outscored by 13.6 PPG, which is obviously just an awful number. That makes this a total mismatch on paper, especially w/ the Blazers playing surprisingly good defense (only allowing 98.2 PPG) while the Kings are by far and away the lowest scoring team in all of basketball at 93.6 PPG. But speaking of "total," that's where the play is here as Portland's string of five straight Unders is bound to end soon, especially w/ them averaging 112.7 PPG on the road and up against a bad defensive team. Take the Over. 

The Under is 10-4 for Portland this year, including 9-2 in games in which they are favored. That's largely owed to the defense, which is only giving up an average of 94.8 PPG during the 5-game Under streak. But, despite those defensive efforts, the team is only 3-2 SU in that stretch. They had lackluster offensive nights in home losses to Brooklyn and Memphis. Even in a victory over Orlando Wednesday, they managed to only shoot 43.7% from the field. I feel this is correctable and the shooting numbers are due to go up. Facing an awful defense team should help. The Kings currently rank 29th in defensive efficiency and have allowed their last three opponents all to shoot 51.8% or better. In their last game, they gave up 126 points to Atlanta on 63.3% shooting! 

Sacramento is back home now after an ugly 0-3 SU road trip that saw them get outscored by 91 points. This is probably the worst team in basketball right now and it's going to be a long season. But you have to think that the offensive numbers can only go up from their current putrid state. How, in today's NBA, a team could only clear 100 pts once in nine games is almost unfathomable. Thankfully, the Kings do at least average 98.4 PPG at home, which is about five points per game over their overall season average. They've only played five times at home, yet predictably are far more competitive here than on the road where they're being blown out on a routine basis. These teams haven't met in 11 months (surprising) but will become quite familiar with one another as this is the front end of a home and home. Look for Portland to be prolific from three-point range tonight as opponents - on average - are making 13 three-pointers per game against the Kings, the highest such number in the league. 10* Over Blazers/Kings

10* Over Warriors/Celtics (8:05 ET): This will be promoted as a potential "NBA Finals Preview" and I really can't argue w/ that as, right now, these are the top teams in their respective conferences. Golden State, of course, is the league's best team - by a significant margin. However, I'm not sure they are deserving of this level of favoritism, especially w/ the game being in Boston and the Celtics on an incredible run right now (13 consecutive victories!) that has seen them cover the spread 11 times (11-1-1 ATS). In fact, the Celtics' overall ATS record of 12-2-1 qualifies as the BEST EVER start at the betting window I've ever tracked! Quite frankly, I don't have a good read on the side here, but the total I do like and I see this matchup going Over the total.

The Dubs have won seven in a row themselves and had covered the spread six straight times before "slipping by" Orlando Monday night, 110-100 as 12.5-pt home favorites. As per usual, we find them leading the league in offensive efficiency and points per game. A little surprising is that they're scoring more on the road w/ an average of 123.7 PPG, which is of course unreal. Save for a 97-80 win over Miami, this team has scored at least 110 pts in every game during the current win streak. Keep in mind Steph Curry didn't play against Orlando, yet the team still shot 50% from the floor overall. But where Curry's absence did hurt was three-point shooting as the team went just 8 for 23 from behind the arc, and 5 for 18 excluding Klay Thompson. Normally, the Warriors make 13 three-pointers per game (15 on the road!). Also, with the game vs. Orlando in hand, they only scored 22 pts total in the 4Q.

What makes this such a fascinating matchup is that it's a battle of the #1 team in offensive efficiency vs. the #1 team in defensive efficiency. Boston is allowing a league-low 94.5 points per game, which is four fewer than the next best team. At home, they allow just 93.4 PPG. So something will have to give here. From Boston's perspective, this O/U is high, while for Golden State it's obviously a little low. The Celtics have gone Under in all five games they've been a dog this year and are shooting only 43.3% from the field, for the season. But this figures to be a high-possession game, which lends itself to the Over. 10* Over Warriors/Celtics

8* Under Cavs/Knicks (7:35 ET): When talking early season-disappointments, Cleveland certainly needs to be near the top of that last. The three-time defending Eastern Conference Champs have started 6-7 SU w/ losses to Atlanta, Brooklyn and these Knicks. They've been outscored by an average of 3.2 PPG so far and that's after beating lowly Dallas on Saturday, 111-104, as six-point road favorites. That was actually the team's first cover as chalk in NINE tries this season! So I definitely want no part of the spread here. With the total, Cleveland's #3 offensive efficiency rating coupled with being #30 (last!) on defense certainly seems conducive to an Over play, which is the way each of the L6 Cavs' games have gone! But I'm going "unconventional" here and calling for an Under. 

The Knicks got off to an ugly 0-3 start to the season, but since then have won seven of nine, bringing a sense of optimism to MSG for the first time in a LONG time. This is Kristaps Porizingis' team now as just about the only correct thing GM Phil Jackson has ever done is run Carmelo Anthony out of the Big Apple. While the split isn't quite as dramatic as Cleveland's, the Knicks are a top 10 team in offense efficiency and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. Again, that sounds like an Over play might be in the cards, but I seriously doubt New York will come close to matching it's 52.2% shooting from the last game, a 118-91 win over the odious Kings. Porzingis led the way again w/ 34 pts there as NY improved to 6-2 SU at home. 

These teams' first meeting of 2017-18 was also the last time Cleveland went Under the total. They lost 114-95 at home (as 10.5-pt favorites) in what - still - is their second lowest scoring game of the season. Interestingly, the total is significantly higher here than it was for that first meeting. The Cavs couldn't hit water from a boat in that game, making only 38.3% of their shots overall and 10 of 33 from three-point range. While they're likely to improve here, the Knicks should see a decrease in their shooting, which was at 47.2% overall and 13 of 28 from three-point range. New York has a 47-29 Under record the L3 seasons when facing a team that has a losing record. 8* Under Cavs/Knicks

8* Over Thunder/Nuggets (10:35 ET): OKC comes into this game off a horrific loss, 94-86 at Sacramento. It was their third consecutive loss and fifth consecutive Under. Yet, I still have this team 4th in my own power rankings despite a 4-6 SU overall record. They've got the 4th best point differential in the sport and have played much better than the record shows. It's downright stunning that after taking a 25-10 lead over the Kings after 1Q, they lost going away. They'd go on to score only 64 points over the final three quarters, unfathomable considering the talent on hand here. It's a much different opponent tonight as Denver was the top Over team in the league LY and comes in averaging 107.3 PPG at home. The string of OKC Unders ends here. Take the Over. 

The Thunder are #2 in the league in defensive efficiency (1 of 3 teams allowing less than one point per possession) and allow only 96.8 PPG. Combine that with the unexpected offensive struggles and you have a team that has been a boon for Under bettors. You have to think that the their FG% from the past five games is going to go up. The rate of 42.5% is really bad and in fact there's been only one game all year where they shot 50.0% and that was almost two weeks ago. They were just 33.7% from the field against Sacramento, so improvement tonight is all but assured. They certainly can't go just 10 of 37 from three-point range again, right? Denver has been playing better defense this year compared to last, but still gives up 106.1 PPG. 

These teams are in the same division (Northwest), so they are quite familiar w/ one another, even though the names on the back of the jerseys may change from year to year. Tonight's O/U line seems very low when you put it up against ones we saw LY when oddsmakers were projecting 225 or more total points being scored. One interesting thing about the Thunder's defense is that it seems to wilt late. When the game is close (five point margin or less), they actually own the league's worst defensive rating. Denver has scored at least 108 pts in five of its last six games, so they're certainly a team that can put the ball in the bucket. Nikola Jokic had a career-high 41 pts Tuesday against Brooklyn and that's a game where the Nuggets didn't even shoot the ball well from three-point range (9 of 34), yet still got to 112 as a team. I look for a high-scoring affair tonight. 8* Over Thunder/Nuggets

8* Under Heat/Suns (9:05 ET): While the respective nicknames here may reference warmth, on the court, both Miami and Phoenix are ice cold. Miami has been a bad bet from the start of the season, going only 2-6-2 ATS its first 10 games. They're off an ugly 97-80 loss to the Warriors where they were held to just 36.1% shooting. I certainly want no part of them here, considering an 0-3 ATS record as chalk. But Phoenix isn't exactly begging for an endorsement either as they've dropped three in a row and shot even worse than Miami (34.9%) in their last game, which was a 98-92 home loss to Brooklyn. Certainly, you have to expect some improvement in shooting from one or both sides tonight, but this O/U line still seems too high, thus I'm on the Under. 

The Suns became the 1st team to fire their head coach this year, 86'ing Earl Watson after an 0-3 SU/ATS start. They'd go on to cover their first five games under interim Jay Triano, even going 4-1 SU in the process. But they've since reverted back to the team we all thought they'd be w/ the three consecutive defeats. There's a lot going on here right now as the team finally found a trade partner (Milwaukee) for PG Eric Bledsoe, who infamously tweeted "I don't want to be here" after the Watson firing. On the positive side, Devin Booker became the fourth youngest player in league history to score 3,000 pts Monday against Brooklyn. (Only LeBron, Durant and Carmello did it faster). But as we saw in that game, Booker alone is not enough to carry this team offensively. Twice in the last three games, the Suns have shot 35% from the field! 

Miami has some of its own personnel issues right now, namely Hassan Whiteside's reaction to being benched Monday. They were already w/o Dion Waiters, who is out due to the birth of his child. That leaves them quite limited offensively and the result was ugly against Golden State w/ only 80 pts scored. Interesting to note here though are each team's recent defensive showings. The Heat have held three of its last four opponents to 40% or worse from the field (including B2B games). The Suns also kept Brooklyn right around 40% as well. Low scoring games are not uncommon for Miami this time of year as they are 24-8 Under in November the L3 seasons, including 3-0 this season. 8* Under Heat/Suns

10* Over Thunder/Kings (10:05 ET): Oklahoma City is only 4-5 SU coming into this game, but that's highly misleading as they own the league's third best scoring differential at +7.2 per game. (Only Golden State and Boston are higher). Three of their losses have been by four points or less, including the most recent one, which was 103-99 at Portland on Sunday. That also marked their fourth consecutive Under. Now some of these early season numbers for the Thunder remain skewed due to their 101-69 beatdown of the Bulls back on 10.28. But, I expect their scoring to start going up as well as their points allowed. Tonight, they face a dreadful Sacramento team which ranks 28th in the league in defensive efficiency. Sounds like an Over to me!

The Kings have just one win to their credit thus far and it came all the way back in the second game of the season. This is, for my money, the worst team in the league right now. They are being outscored by 12.0 PPG and their net efficiency is also a league worst. It's seven straight losses and counting and just to further illustrate how bad things have gotten here, they haven't covered the spread in any of those SU losses. They did push Saturday in Detroit, losing 108-99 as nine-point pups, but that had to still be considered quite the disappointing result as they shot a season-best 52.6% from the floor and still lost by a wide margin (trailed by 11 entering the fourth quarter). I see them offering little resistance here to an OKC team that will likely be "out for blood." 

The Kings have failed to top 100 points in four consecutive games, which is downright embarrassing in today's NBA. They at least came close Saturday after failing to score more than 86 in their previous three losses. It doesn't seem to promising for them facing a Thunder team that is 2nd in defensive efficiency, not to mention holding its opponents to a 42.9 FG%. But I believe that number is due to increase substantially for OKC as there's just no way its opponents can continue to shoot that horrendously. Remember, that Chicago game (28.2 FG% allowed) still skews things heavily w/ only nine games played. I see this as being a high-scoring game, just as OKC's last four visits to California's capital city have been. All four games went Over the total including games w/ 217 and 240 total pts scored LY. 10* Over Thunder/Kings

10* Over Heat/Warriors (10:35 ET): Three losses in 10 games is enough to proclaim "the sky is falling" for Golden State, but that speaks to how high they've "set the bar" these L3 seasons. Needless to say, any reports of this team's "demise" have been greatly exaggerated as they return home Monday, fresh off a 3-0 SU/ATS road trip where every win came by at least 19 points. That was after starting just 4-3 SU (1-6 ATS), so it's safe to say the Dubs are back on track. Tonight, they are massive favorites in what I believe is the biggest pointspread to date this NBA season. While Miami is playing the second game of a B2B, not to mention a third road game in four nights, I'm not sure this large of a spread is justified. Therefore, I was far more interested in the total for this late night matchup.

Coming into this current trip, the Heat were 0-5-2 ATS their first seven games, leaving them as the league's lone winless team ATS. That's a far cry from last year when they were one of the best bets at the window. Of course, they did get off to a pretty horrendous start last year (11-30 SU first 41 games) before turning things around rather dramatically in the second half (went 30-11!). Here, they are off B2B close games, having lost to Denver by one on Friday (covered) and then beating the Clippers by three Sunday afternoon. One could make the arguement that the Heat should have taken both games as they led Denver most of the way and they led by as many as 25 yday, before successfully holding off a late LA rally. 

Golden State may not have the league's top record (just yet), but they are the top scoring team (by a mile) at 120.7 PPG. (Brooklyn is actually #2 at 114.3 PPG!). As a result, the Over has gone 7-3 for them so far. They've shot the ball lights out the L4 games, making over 54% of their field goal attempts. They, in fact, lead the league in FG% currently at 52.6% for the year. They were also an amazing 46 of 97 from three-point range in sweeping their three-game road trip. Now this figures to be the highest O/U line Miami sees all season, but they're a disappointing 17th in defensive efficiency thus far, so Golden State should have its way. At the same time, the Warriors have been just as disappointing at the defensive end, ranking 20th in efficiency. 10* Over Heat/Warriors

8* Over Thunder/Blazers (9:05 ET): Not that divisions really matter anymore in today's NBA, but the Northwest looks to be pretty loaded this year w/ all five teams currently sporting a .500 record or better. In my opinion, these are the two best teams right now in the NW, regardless if the standings say otherwise. Oklahoma City is 4-4 SU, but has outscored its eight opponents by an average of 8.6 PPG. Granted, that scoring differential is owed in large part to a 101-69 beatdown of lowly Chicago last weekend. The team is coming off a very disappointing result Friday as they lost at home to Boston after blowing an 18-pt lead. Portland has actually failed to cover the spread five straight times (though four of those ATS losses have come as favorites), so something will have to give here. 

To me, the total is the better play here on this matchup, more specifically the Over. Now I say that knowing full well how stingy OKC has been this season. They're #2 in defensive efficiency and are giving up only 93.7 PPG on the road. Again though, those numbers are somewhat skewed due to a small sample size that includes the aforementioned blowout of Chicago. Opponents have shot a very low percentage against them this season (39.3% L5 games!) and that undoubtedly will start to go up. (Again, Chicago shooting only 28.2% from the field in that game skews everything). Throw in the fact that Portland is due for a little "market correction" in its own right and I see the Thunder's defensive numbers taking a hit in this matchup. 

Portland is averaging an impressive 107.7 PPG this season, which becomes more impressive when you consider that they are shooting only 42.9% from the floor. This number will start to increase as they have been shockingly poor on two-point attempts. They're actually hitting almost 40% of their three-point attempts and are also an 82% team from the FT line. So when they start hitting the "easier shots" and get inside the paint, that will counteract any likely regression from behind the arc. Defensively, the Blazers have given up 112 and 110 points the L2 games and just allowed the Lakers to shoot almost 55% for the game. Given what both teams are capable of offensively (Thunder has scored 110+ in four of five before Boston loss), this O/U line seems too low. 8* Over Thunder/Blazers

10* Over Warriors/Spurs (8:05 ET): Last season saw the Warriors and Spurs combine for only 36 losses the entire regular season. This season may have started earlier than normal, but it is nevertheless downright shocking that the two have already combined for six losses and we just turned the calendar to November. However, after a 4-3 SU/1-6 ATS start, Golden State definitely appeared motivated Halloween Night in a 141-113 beatdown of the rival Clippers. San Antonio, meanwhile, has lost three straight. All of those losses occurred out on the road, against Eastern Conference teams. The Spurs failed to score 100 pts in any of the three losses, but this is the Warriors they're playing here and thus I see plenty more scoring taking place. I'm on the Over.

It may be a disappointing start to the season for the Dubs, yet they remain the league's highest scoring team at 121.0 PPG. Six of their eight games have gone Over the total, including three straight, all of which had O/U lines of 221 or higher. While this will be the highest O/U line for any Spurs game this season, it ranks on the lower end of the spectrum for Golden State. In fact, it's just the third time for them that the O/U line is lower than 221 pts. They couldn't miss Tuesday in LA, connecting at a 58.4% clip overall, including 14 of 29 from three-point range. Steph Curry led the way w/ 31 and the team scored at least 33 pts in every quarter. The Warriors have now scored at least 117 pts in all but two games and have shot 55% or better from the field four times in the last five games.. But if there is an issue worth monitoring right now, it is on the defensive end of the floor as they're giving up 114.1 PPG.

San Antonio has been w/o Kwahi Leonard from the start, which certainly helps explain their rough beginning to the season. Leonard is obviously one of the best two-way players in this league and his absence is being felt at both ends of the floor. The Spurs are w/o Tony Parker as well, so they're not even close to operating at "full strength" right now. Being that they are one of only two teams (Utah is the other) that is neither scoring nor allowing 100 PPG, I recognize that it is a bit risky to side w/ the Over here. However, consider the opponent and the Spurs HAVE to start shooting better as they've finished at 41% from the field or lower in all three games during the current losing streak. The Spurs are 17-6 Over as an underdog the L3 seasons. Also, all four games in LY's Western Conference Finals went Over the total. 10* Over Warriors/Spurs

8* Over Nuggets/Hornets (7:05 ET): The two teams involved here have, thus far, conspired to go a perfect 6-0 Under against the total. That's 3-0 each. Their respective points scored + allowed on a per game basis are remarkably similar w/ Denver games averaging 196.7 PPG and Charlotte's averaging 196.4. For the Nuggets, such low scoring affairs are a radical departure from what we saw last season when they were the top Over team in the league (50-31-1 all games) and nearly 223 total PPG were being scored. So something tells me that this string of low-scoring games is about to end soon. Sure enough, the previous two seasons have seen them go 6-3 Over when coming off three or more consecutive Unders. This game will go Over the total. 

Charlotte is a team that, before the season, I tabbed to be as improved as any in the league. Unfortunately though, they've yet to shoot the ball well in any game, particularly the two on the road. They lost up in Milwaukee Monday night, 103-94, shooting just 42.3% from the floor. The season opener, also on the road, saw them shoot below 40% in a 102-90 loss at Detroit. However, in their lone home game so far, they did score 109 in a win over the Atlanta Hawks. Home is where tonight's game is and I'll call for the best shooting night of the season for the Hornets. An issue this team has faced in the early going is lack of depth. Four key players were out for the Milwaukee game, yet the bench still outscored its Bucks' counterparts 42-30. Frank Kaminsky is averaging 14.3 PPG "off the pine" so far. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is expected back tonight after missing Monday due to the death of his grandmother.

Denver, like Charlotte in the East, expects to be a "player" in the Western Conference this season. Most believe this will be a playoff team and I've seen them pegged as high as fifth in the pecking order. But something else they share in common w/ Charlotte is a 1-2 start. That one win also came at home against a bad team, Sacramento, 96-79 on Saturday. They've since dropped a game to Washington (also at home) despite the best efforts of Nikola Jokic, who scored 29 pts in a losing effort. Also worth noting is that in their lone road game so far, the Nuggets did allow the opposition (Utah) to shoot better than 50% from the floor. Both of these up and coming teams are in line for an improved effort on the offensive end tonight and that's what I believe will lead to an Over cashing for the first time on each side. 8* Over Nuggets/Hornets

10* Over Hawks/Hornets (7:05 ET): These two division rivals are expected to trend in very opposite directions in 2017-18. You don't have to dig very deep to understand why. Atlanta has dismantled its roster after years of mediocrity and early playoff exits. Believe it or not, the Hawks own the East's longest active playoff streak at 10 consecutive seasons, but that will almost assuredly end this year as oddsmakers aren't even forecasting them for 30 wins this year. Let's also throw in the fact that despite finishing 43-39 SU LY, the Hawks were actually outscored over the course of the season and benefited from an extremely fortunate 5-0 SU record in OT games. The Hornets were just the opposite as they went 0-9 SU in games decided by three points or less (were 0-6 in OT!), thus nullifying the fact they actually outscored their opponents! Thus it should not be surprising to you that I have them right at the top of my "Most Improved" list for this season.

However, the script that I am writing for the respective seasons did not play out in each team's opener. Atlanta went to Dallas and won outright 117-111, shooting 51.1% from the floor, including 9 of 18 from three-point range. They were led by Dennis Schroeder's 28 points and also got a huge lift off the bench from Marco Belinelli, who scored 20. As for Charlotte, they suffered a rather ugly 102-90 defeat at the hands of Detroit Wednesday night. They shot only 39.7% from the floor, including 9 of 30 from three-point range. Take out Kemba Walker's 24 points and the shooting numbers begin to get really ugly. HC Steve Clifford has indicated that he may start tinkering w/ his starting lineup. I have no unearthly idea why Cody Zeller did not start the first game.

These division rivals have met eight times the previous two seasons. All eight games have stayed Under, which is quite the trend. Given how well Atlanta shot the ball in Dallas, you might be surprised to learn that I'm not projecting much decline tonight. That's because outside of Schroeder, none of the other four starters topped 10 points against the Mavs. Collectively, we're likely to get more production from that quartet tonight, which will counteract any decline from Schroeder and/or Belinelli. Charlotte is all but a lock to shoot better tonight (at home) compared to their season opener. Save for an ugly loss in Atlanta late in the year, the Hornets scored at least 100 pts in all other meetings w/ the Hawks last year. This isn't a very high total - at least by modern NBA standards - and I'm calling for the game to go Over. 10* Over Hawks/Hornets

10* Under Warriors/Cavs (9:05 ET): The NBA Finals are "all over but the shouting" now after a soul-crushing loss for Cleveland in Game 3 and anyone who may have taken them plus the points. You can count me among that group as I watched in horror as the defending World Champs were held scoreless over the game's final three minutes, turning a six-point advantage into a five-point loss and thus my ticket on them +3.5 ended up a loser. Anticipation of a sweep has the Game 4 line clearly inflated, but I have no interest in playing the Cavs right now. Therefore, it's a pivot to the total. In Game 1, I was on the Under, noting the O/U line was extraordinarily high compared to past meetings between the two teams. That ticket cashed, but after Games 2 and 3 went Over, we now have an even higher total for this game. Therefore, I'm back on the Under.

It's probably fair to question Cleveland's motivation here. Granted, they did "shock the world" last year in coming back from a 3-1 series deficit. But that was w/ Draymond Green suspended for one of the games. No team in NBA history has ever fought back from a 3-0 series deficit. The fact Cleveland couldn't win Game 3 despite 35+ points from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving is damning. Other than Kevin Love, no one else on the team is producing above a replacement level right now. It seems as if the Cavs never shoot well against the Warriors, who are an underrated defensive team to begin with. Cleveland's red-hot three-point shooting from the first three rounds is now a thing of the past as they've been held to 20 of 73 from behind the arc these last two games. As a reminder, Golden State was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season and they have been - by far - the best team at that end of the floor here in the playoffs. Don't forget they also held the Cavs below 35% overall in Game 1.

Golden State has shot 51.7% and 48.2% respectively in the last two games. They'll obviously "get theirs" again tonight, but after going Over in seven of the past eight games, just how much will they "get?" Motivation could be lacking on their side as well, knowing they - in essence - have this series "in the bag." I don't think we'll see the same kind of sharpshooting we saw the last two games. Remember this was one of the top Under teams (due to inflated O/U lines) in the regular season. Cleveland is also 36-18 Under in games which they are an underdog since LeBron James returned three seasons ago. That includes a 12-6 mark (same pace!) this year. 10* Under Warriors/Cavs

10* Under Cavs/Warriors (9:05 ET): This will be the highest O/U line for any NBA Finals game in the 2000's. Both offenses rolled through conference counterparts to get here, but let's not discount how those opponents were completely outclassed. Furthermore, always underrated is the fact that the Warriors were #2 in the regular season and currently #1 in the playoffs in defensive efficiency. The gap between them and Cleveland (#3 in playoff def efficiency) is quite substantial. That said, the Cavs have clearly "turned it on" at the defensive end themselves in the postseason. They just got done holding Boston to an average of 100.4 PPG on 43.5% shooting in the ECF. The long layoff between series could likely have an effect on both teams and consider that only ONE of the previous 19 matchups between these teams (all over L3 years) has seen more total pts scored than what the oddsmakers are asking for in Game 1. Take the Under. 

That lone matchup that exceeded this O/U line took place on MLK Day 2016 as the Warriors ran the Cavs out of the gym, 132-98. I wouldn't be expecting any kind of one-sided rout like that here. Cleveland did struggle to shoot against the Warriors in both reg season matchups this year, however, making only 38.9% and 35.2% of their FG attempts respectively. They were also only 21 of 69 from three-point range. Seven of the previous eight meetings here in Oakland have stayed Under the total. In their last five visits to Oracle Arena, the Cavs have shot better than 41% only one time and that was Game 5 of LY's Finals - when the Warriors did not have Draymond Green.

Neither team's total PPG for the season exceeds this O/U line. Not even Golden State, whose games average 220.2 points per game. That average has held remarkably steady here in the playoffs (220.3 PPG). This was actually one of the top Under teams in the league this year (because of all the high O/U lines) and a major reason for that was a 21-9 Under mark against the Eastern Conference. As for Cleveland, their games this season have seen an average of 217.8 PPG. There's been a slight increase here in the playoffs, but only to 220.0 per game. The O/U line was 227 for the Cavs' reg season visit here and that game (126-91 GSW win) stayed Under by double digits. Other than that, no other O/U line for any previous matchup between these two has been higher than 219.5, which was the number for the reg season meeting in Cleveland. All seven O/U lines in LY's Finals were in the 204 to 211.5 pt range. This will close as the highest O/U line for either team in these playoffs. 10* Under Cavs/Warriors

10* Under Cavaliers/Celtics (8:35): Entering this game, Cleveland has yet to go Under in B2B games at any point this postseason. I'll call for that trend to end Thursday as they look to close out Boston once and for all. One could make the arguement that this year's Eastern Conference Finals should "already be over," but in Game 3 Sunday, the Cavs improbably blew a 21-point second half lead (at home!) and lost outright as 17-point favorites. Behind a virtuoso peformance from Kyrie Irving (42 points), they then turned the tables on the Celtics in Game 4 by erasing a 16-point deficit and winning. Once again, Cleveland shot the lights out (59.5% overall!) and Boston, who is w/o its best player (Isaiah Thomas) simply could not keep up. On the road, I do not believe the Cavs will be able to shoot the ball that well again, meaning this game should be lower scoring than expected. Take the Under.

In the first two games here in Boston, the Celtics managed just 39 and 31 points in the first half. That was w/ Thomas in the lineup. Getting career performances from a number of players in Game 3 was the key to victory, but then everybody regressed Tuesday as they shot just 32.3% from behind the arc and finished w/ "only" 99 points. I just don't think that the Celtics have the horses offensively to compete here. They were held to just 42 points in the second half of Game 4. They are 10-3 Under the L3 seasons when trailing in a playoff series. Save for the stunning 18 of 40 performance in Game 3, they've just been dreadful from three-point range in this series, shooting below 33% in the other three games. I don't see that turning around here. The Under is 7-2 the last nine times Boston has hosted Cleveland.

The key to this Under play is obviously Cleveland getting held in relative check. No way they shoot 71% in a half again, like they did in the second on Tuesday. Note that after shooting 56.5% overall in Game 2, they dropped down to series worsts of 108 pts and 45.7% shooting the next game, their only loss in the series. I still believe we're due to see some more regression from three-point range from this team as they're on an almost historical pace this postseason. Irving isn't likely to match his production from Game 4 and LeBron James (reportedly sick) hasn't really been himself the last two games either. Irving rolled his ankle Tuesday as well. Meanwhile, as already stated numerous times, Boston just lacks firepower as they are down not only Thomas, but Amir Johnson missed the last game and rookie Jaylen Brown may miss this one. 10* Under Cavaliers/Celtics

10* Under Warriors/Spurs (9:05 ET): At this point, Golden State advancing to its third consecutive NBA Finals seems like mere formality. They've won the L2 games by double digits, beating the undermanned Spurs by 36 and 12 points. Clearly, this series swung on the Kwahi Leonard injury as when he went down (ankle), San Antonio was leading Game 1 by 25 points. Since then, the Warriors have outscored the Spurs by 70 points over the last 10 quarters. I'm staying away from the side in Game 4 as its seems as if the oddsmakers have finally adjusted accordingly, but the total now offers some value after each of the first three games went Over the total. Tonight, the O/U line figures to close at a series high-point, so Under is the call here as San Antonio's ONLY shot is to turn this into a low-possession, low-scoring affair.

These were the #1 and #2 teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season. In the playoffs though, Golden State has taken its defense up a notch as they are they are barely allowing one point per possession. The Spurs defense has obviously slipped the L2 games w/o their ace defender Leonard, but his absence also has an effect on the offensive end as well. Remember, the team is also w/o Tony Parker the rest of the way. That's 43.6 points per game (Leonard + Parker's season long averages) gone from the lineup w/o the leading and third-leading scorer on the team. With Golden State, the cliche of "you can't stop 'em, you can only hope to contain them" certainly applies, but people forget that this was largely an Under team in the regular season. They're still 50-39-1 Under in all games this year including 31-20 when off a game where they scored 115 or more points. 

San Antonio is now 12-3 Over in the playoffs. That's pretty shocking. The Memphis series (1st round) featured lots of low O/U lines, which was a big contributing factor, as has playing the two highest scoring teams from the reg season the L2 rounds. Going back to the end of the Houston series, they've now allowed an average of 110.2 points the L5 games. That's obviously well above their season-long average of giving up just 98.2 PPG here at home. Look for this one to stay Under the total. 10* Under Warriors/Spurs

10* Over Celtics/Cavs (8:35 ET): After cashing w/ the Under (barely!) in Game #2, I'm pivoting to the Over here in Game #3. I probably don't need to tell you that Cleveland absolutely bludgeoned Boston in a manner previously not thought possible in a Conference Finals. They led by 41 points at halftime (NBA record!) en route to a 130-86 victory that could have actually been MORE lopsided (Cavs' rested their starting five the entire fourth quarter). If that wasn't bad enough for the Celtics, now the series shifts to Cleveland and they will be w/o their best player (Isaiah Thomas) the rest of the way. The loss of Thomas as well as the result of the last game has caused a major readjustment from the linesmakers on both side and total here and I believe the latter to be less warranted. 

The Cavaliers are on a historic pace from three-point range in these playoffs, making nearly 15 per game! They shot 19 of 39 from behind the arc in Game 2 (48.7%), but it's on the inside where they are clearly having their way w/ the undersized Celtics. On two-point attempts in this series, they are shooting 57 of 96 for an unconscionable 59.3%. One might look at that number and logically conclude they are due to drop off, but who is Boston to stop them? In the playoffs, the Cavs are #1 in efficiency on the offensive end, averaging nearly 1.2 points per possession! At no point in the playoffs have they gone Under in B2B games. Friday marked the SIXTH time this season that they scored at least 130 pts in a game. The Over is a perfect 5-0 off the previous five. At home, this team averages 113.1 PPG. 

Even without Thomas, it is highly unlikely that Boston shoots any worse than it did in Game 2. They finished at just 37.2% overall including 8 of 27 from three-point range. Poor shooting even translated to the FT line where they missed 8 of 23 attempts. (By the way, the Cavs only went to the line 15 times in Game 2!). The 86 pts scored in Game 2 marked a playoff low, so even w/o Thomas, they should bounce back. They haven't been held below 100 pts in B2B games in the playoffs. To summarize, any decline here from the Cavs offensively will be offset by improvement on the Boston side. As specified above, the Cavs probably won't decline much anyway and let's not understate how scoring could increase in garbage time if this game were to get out of hand again. 10* Over Cavs/Celtics

8* Under Cavs/Celtics (8:35 ET): I didn't play Game 1, but if I had, Under probably would have been the call. Thus, in retrospect, it was a wise pass. As for the side, Cleveland dominated the series opener so thoroughly that there is serious talk of a sweep here. Why shouldn't there be? Like "rival" Golden State, the Cavs have yet to lose this postseason and are now on a 12-0 playoff run dating back to LY's epic Finals comeback. After Wednesday's 117-104 win, LeBron James said about his team, "I don't even think we played that great tonight." The Celtics should be frightened by that comment as they never led at any point in Game 1 and trailed by as many as 28 on their home floor. Will they be "motivated" for Game 2? Certainly. But I still wouldn't consider the points w/ the home dog. Rather, I WILL step out w/ a play on the Under this time.

In some regards, James assertion that his team didn't "play that great" is correct. Kyrie Irving scored only 11 points and James, Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson were the only other players that finished w/ double figures (all w/ 20+). The team also shot "only" 35.5% from 3-pt range (averaging above 40% in playoffs) and would have been worse if not for a 6 for 9 performance from Love. But in this department, I believe the Cavs will continue to regress from the historic level they shot at in the first two rounds (averaged 14 3-pt FG's per game vs. Indiana/Toronto). Love probably won't shoot that well again, nor is Thompson likely to match his own offensive output from Gm 1. As phenomenal a player as LeBron James is (best ever?), I don't see him making 13 of 16 shots inside the paint again. 

Both teams actually wound up shooting well in Game 1. The Cavs finished at 48.1% while the Celtics were at 46.6%. Yet, looking back, it's a bit surprising the game did sneak Over the total. There were only 100 total pts scored at halftime and 61 of those came from the Cleveland side. It was a wild third quarter (36-31 in favor of Boston) that swung things dramatically for totals players. I should point out that the O/U line here exceeds the average total points per game output for both teams. Even in the playoffs, Cavs' games are averaging "just" 219.6 PPG. For the Celtics, their games have averaged 211.3 PPG in the playoffs. Isaiah Thomas was basically a non-factor in Gm 1 as Cavs HC Tye Lue threw a number of (all effective!) different looks at him. 8* Under Cavs/Celtics

10* Under Spurs/Warriors (9:05 ET): Game 1, specifically the second half, probably couldn't have gone any worse for San Antonio. Not only did they blow a 25-pt lead and lose the game, 113-111, but they also lost superstar Kwahi Leonard for the forseeable future as well. This is probably the most points the Spurs have ever gotten in any game under HC Popovich and while they're 8-2 ATS as dogs this year, the task here w/o Leonard is every bit as difficult as the oddsmakers are projecting it to be. Therefore, we turn to the total. As was the case in the Houston series, expect the O/U lines to be high from San Antonio's perspective. The last time the Spurs were w/o Leonard (Game 6 vs. Rockets), I was on the Under and I'm playing Game 2 of this series the same way. 

Now, clearly, Spurs fans shouldn't expect tonight's game to go the same way the close out game of the Houston series did. There, the team held the high-scoring Rockets to a season-low 75 points in as easy a win as I've seen in these playoffs. The loss of Leonard clearly stings on the defensive end, but the Spurs were still able to hold the #2 team in offensive efficiency to a season-low in points Friday. So, I believe they're capable of still keeping the Warriors (#1 in off efficiency) in relative check, even w/o Leonard. Remember though that Tony Parker is also out for the year. That combined w/ the Leonard injury will hurt San Antonio more on the offensive end. Leonard was injured in the third quarter Sunday and the change in the team was striking. After scoring 62 pts in the first half, they scored only 49 in the second. Three teammates did end up scoring in double figures, but I seriously doubt that LaMarcus Aldridge, Manu Ginobili or Jonathan Simmons will match their Game 1 production tonight.

As I talked about in my Game 1 analysis, Golden State is quite underrated defensively. They finished the regular season #2 in defensive efficiency (trailing only the Spurs!) and have really taken things up a notch in the playoffs. They are the only team to be allowing fewer than one point per possession here in the postseason and the gap between them and the #3 team is larger than the gap between the #3 and #13 team. The Warriors are absolutely an Under team (52-38-1 this year) and won't have nearly as poor a 1st half defensively as they did in Game 1. Both teams ended up shooting the ball pretty well overall in Game 1, something you can't count on repeating itself. 10* Under Spurs/Warriors

8* Over Wizards/Celtics (8:05 ET): Due to what happened in Game 6 (92-91 final) and the conventional wisdom of Unders cashing at a higher rate in Game 7's (roughly 60 percent since '07), the oddsmakers have dipped the O/U line considerably here from the final installment of Wizards-Celtics. But the dip in the O/U line seems like an overadjustment to me. At it's "low point" (has been bet up a bit overnight), it was a full EIGHT points lower than the Game 5 O/U line here in Boston, a contest which went well Over the total. In fact, all three games in Boston during the series have gone Over due in no small part to the home team averaging roughly 125 points per game. Washington is obviously worse off defensively on the road (allows 110.2 PPG), but did you know so is Boston at home (105.7 PPG allowed compared to 104.5 PPG on the road). Take the Over.

Overall, Washington has not shot well in the last two games. They're just over 40% overall from the floor, including an awful 12 of 53 from three-point range. The fact they were able to win Game 6 despite shooting 5 of 24 from behind the arc was huge, not just for the fact they stayed alive, but even on the road they're now likely to shoot much better tonight. Heck, the Wiz won despite missing eight of 21 FT attempts in Game 6. I expect across the board shooting improvement from them here. Boston didn't exactly shoot the lights out either Friday night. They were only 40.5% overall including 11 of 35 from three-point range. In the series' three home games, they've shot better than 50% from the floor every time. So, it should be improved shooting on both sides tonight. 

The dip in the O/U line here is also significant for another reason. Both teams' season-long total PPG averages now exceed it. Wizards games average 216.3 PPG and that number jumps to 218.1 on the road where the Over is 31-16. They've also gone Over 15 of the last 20 times facing a team that averages at least 106 PPG. Boston averages 107.8 PPG overall and 110.0 PPG at home. Celtics' home games average 215.7 PPG for the year and thus the Over is 25-18. These are two good free throw shooting teams, so the struggles we've seen from the losing side each of the L2 games should dissipate. Washington is 29-12 Over L3 seasons when playing w/ two days of rest. 8* Over Wizards/Celtics

10* Under Spurs/Warriors (3:30 ET): While I'm sure it will (hopefully!) be mentioned during the telecast, something that will not get played up enough in this series is the fact that the Spurs and Warriors were 1-2 in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Here in the playoffs, Golden State has taken their defense to a whole new level as they are the ONLY team to be allowing less than one point per possession. In fact, the gap between them and the #3 team in defensive efficiency in these playoffs (Boston) is wider than the gap between #3 and #14! Their last five games, which includes the sweep of Utah and close out game against Portland, has seen them allow an average of just 97.4 points per game on 41.2% shooting. Take the Under in Game 1.

San Antonio is of course coming off a completely dominant victory in their close out game against Houston. They won Game 6 of that series (on the road!), 114-75. It goes w/o saying that was easily the fewest # of points scored in a game by Houston this year. What's really impressive though is that the Spurs had previously held Houston to a season-low 92 points in Game 3 as well. All told, they held the Rockets to 96 pts or less three times in the series, which is virtually unheard of given that Houston was held below 100 pts only a handful of times throughout the course of the regular season. The good news is the Kwahi Leonard will play here and that's bad news for whichever Golden State player he defends. Memphis and Houston's respective leading scorers, Mike Conley and James Harden, shot just 34% from the floor when Leonard was their primary defender. 

Going hand and hand w/ the Warriors being a top defensive team this year is the fact they were also an Under team as well. Only four teams have gone Under in a higher percentage of their games this season. On the other side, as was the case against Houston, the Spurs' ability to defend the three-point line here (best in the league during reg season) will be key. In their two regular season losses to the Spurs, Golden State shot just 12 of 50 from beyond the arc. San Antonio allows just 99 PPG this year, so from their perspective, the game by game O/U lines will be high in this series, similar to the Houston series. 10* Under Spurs/Warriors

10* Under Spurs/Rockets (8:05 ET):  My Under play for Game 5 was foiled by overtime, a cruel twist following a second half in which the teams combined for just 84 second half points and only 31 in the fourth quarter. Even crueler was the fact that it looked as if the Under still might cash despite the extra five minutes of play, only for 10 of the 15 OT points to come in the game's final 90 seconds. The Spurs were #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season and have held Houston to 101 pts or less in regulation three of the past four games. The fact that the Over has gone 11-2 their previous 13 games is a bit misleading as individual game totals in the Memphis series were set low. As previously noted here, the O/U lines in this series are high from the San Antonio perspective. I'm sticking w/ the Under again. 

Houston is of course one of the top offensive teams in the league. They are the reason for the high totals in this series, but as previously noted, they've been held well below their scoring average in three of the last four games. Neither team shot well in Game 5, making the final result all the more painful for me. It also had to be painful for the Rockets to hold the Spurs to 40% shooting and still lose. One thing we haven't seen a ton of in this series is free throw shooting, at least compared to both teams' season average for number of attempts. That's a good thing when betting the Under. In the L2 games, Houston is just 21 of 31 from the charity stripe while San Antonio is an even worse 24 of 41.

Obviously, the key storyline for Game 6 is going to be the health of Kwahi Leonard, who injured his ankle in the last game and was on the bench down the stretch. Somewhat shockingly, his teammates picked up the slack, scoring the final 19 pts of the game. I wouldn't look for that to happen again though and let's not forget the Spurs are already w/o Tony Parker as well. Leonard is on track to play here, but figures to be hobbled somewhat. Considering the team scored just 24 pts in the 4Q and OT of Game 5, that doesn't bode well. Now you could argue that Leonard not being 100% might also have an adverse effect on the Spurs at the defensive end. While it is true that Leonard has been an ace at defending James Harden, his teammates were also up to the challenge down the stretch Tuesday. The Rockets scored only 22 total pts in the 4Q & OT of Game 5. No overtime hopefully and Game 6 stays Under the total. 10* Under Spurs/Rockets

10* Under Rockets/Spurs (8:05 ET): While this series has been nothing but blowouts, it's squared up at two games apiece, making tonight's result absolutely critical to both sides. As I said prior to Game 3 (won by the Spurs, 103-92), the recent rash of Overs on the San Antonio side has surprised me. I did win w/ the Under in Game 3 (cashed Houston in Gm 4), but that is the ONLY time the Under has cashed for them in the L8 games. The Over is now 10-2 their past 12 games overall. However, remember that the O/U lines were low in the Memphis series and that this was the #1 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Games 2 and 3 saw them do the "unthinkable" and that's hold the Rockets below 100 pts in consecutive games. Thus, I'm on the Under here in Game 5.

From the Spurs' perspective, the O/U lines in this series have been high. This is a team that allows just 98.5 PPG for the year and their games average 203.8 PPG total. Houston had NEVER been held below 100 pts in B2B games prior to San Antonio turning the trick in Games 2 and 3 and in Gm 3, the Spurs held them to a season-low 92 points. In the Rockets' two wins in the series, they have gone 41 of 93 from three-point range. In the two losses, they are just 23 of 73. That's not only far fewer makes, but also far fewer attempts. In the regular season, the Spurs were the top team in the league in defending the three-point, so as I've been saying, they are uniquely suited to stop Houston's main offensive weapon. 

Both teams have now sustained significant injuries in this series. The Spurs have lost Tony Parker the rest of the way, which won't have too significant an impact on the defensive end, but will on offense. In the two full games w/o Parker, they've averaged just 103.5 PPG. Meanwhile, Houston has lost Nene' for the rest of the season. He had been averaging 10.8 PPG in the playoffs, so it's a significant loss. I don't think the Rockets can count on bench players Eric Gordon and Lou Williams to combine for 35 pts again like they did in Game 4. After all, the entire Rockets' bench scored all of 10 pts in Game 3. When guarded by fellow MVP candidate Kwahi Leonard, James Harden has really struggled in this series. He's shooting just 29 percent from the floor including 10 percent from three-point range. 10* Under Rockets/Spurs

10* Under Spurs/Rockets (9:35 ET): The first two games of this series have gone Over the total, but as we saw last night w/ Boston-Washington, that doesn't preclude an Under when the venue shifts. Though I was happy to see the Spurs (had 'em!) win big Game 2 (121-96 as six-point favorites), that victory certainly came at a price as PG Tony Parker now appears to be done for the year with a torn quad. That certainly puts a big damper on the Spurs' prospects as they'll need to find out a way to replace his production on the offensive end. Defensively, I don't think Parker's absence will sting nearly as much. This was the #1 team in efficiency during the regular season and as long as they have Kwahi Leonard defending James Harden, they'll be okay. Take the Under for Game 3.

For San Antonio, this is a high total. Their total PPG average for the season is just 203.7. Now for Houston, the number is a little low as their games average 224.4 PPG. But the Rockets only scored 96 in Game 2. That was actually their second fewest number of points scored in a game ALL SEASON and just the SIXTH time they were held below 100. So, we probably should expect some sort of bounce back offensively tonight. That said, Leonard should continue to make "life difficult" for Harden and prevent the Rockets from hitting their peak or even average. Harden scored just 13 pts in Game 2 on 3 of 17 shooting. It was the worst shooting playoff game of his career and he did not make a single shot when Leonard was the primary defender. Parker might be done, but Leonard isn't going anywhere. It certainly doesn't help Harden or the Rockets that he's not feeling well either (congestion & cough). 

The Spurs have actually gone Over the total in six straight games as well as 9 of their last 10. But remember their first round opponent was Memphis and the O/U lines set there were low. This is now - easily - the longest Over streak of the Spurs' season. The previous high was four straight games, achieved twice. While they likely won't shoot as poorly as they did back in Game 1 (36.9% overall), they also aren't likely to shoot as well as they did in Game 2 (54.5%). As long as the top defensive team in the league can maintain somewhere close to its season average, we will be in good shape here. Remember that San Antonio was the best team in the league at defending the three-point line, so they are uniquely suited to slowing down the Rockets' primary weapon. 10* Under Spurs/Rockets

10* Over Jazz/Warriors (10:35 ET): This total is incredibly low from the Warriors' perspective. Of course, from the Jazz's perspective, not so much as they led the league in points per game allowed during the regular season (96.8) and their total PPG average for the year is now just 197.4. Underrated here is the fact Golden State was #2 in the regular season in defensive efficiency, behind only San Antonio (Utah was #3). So, a somewhat defensive series should be expected. That said, Warriors' games this season average 219.9 total PPG and this is probably the lowest O/U line for any of their games this season. Game 1 did stay Under (as have all Jazz-Warriors matchups this season), but it was also a 58-46 game at halftime. Scoring crawled to a halt in the fourth quarter when the game was largely decided. Not here. Take the Over.

Yes, all four meetings this year between these teams have now stayed Under. In fact, going back to last year, the streak is now at seven in a row. Six of the last seven meetings here in Oakland have stayed Under. But there's a chance tonight's O/U line could close as the lowest to date. Certainly, it's not as if these previous meetings have been staying Under by a wide margin. Game 1 missed the mark by just six points. Four of the previous five times these teams had played, the margin was even slimmer than that. I probably shouldn't have to tell you that the Warriors were again the top offensive team in the league this year. They average an astounding 118.4 PPG at home. 

Neither team was very prolific from three-point range in Game 1 as they combined to go just 16 of 58. Utah actually made more threes (9) than did Golden State (7). The seven made 3-pt field goals is well below what the Warriors average for the year (12.0), so expect an increase in production from them behind the arc tonight. Another area where we should make up scoring from Game 1 is at the free throw line. The teams combined to attempt only 33 FT's. They made 28, so a higher number of attempts should naturally lead to more makes. At no point did the Warriors trail in Game 1 and all five starters wound up scoring in double figures. Meanwhile, Utah didn't score its first point until the 7:48 mark of the first quarter. A similar drought should not be expected here and had they scored just six points during that time, the Over would have cashed. This total is just too low. 10* Over Jazz/Warriors

10* Under Wizards/Celtics (8:05 ET): Washington failed to protect a 20-3 lead in Game 1, so I'm lukewarm on their prospects of winning a game here in Boston. But one thing I think we absolutely can expect for tonight's Game 2 is worse shooting - from both sides. The Wizards and Celtics combined to go better than 50% from the field w/ Boston making a ridiculous 19 three-pointers in what shocking turned out to be an easy, come from behind effort. The Wiz weren't "half bad" from behind the arc either, going 10 of 23. I just don't think we'll see a repeat of that and with the O/U line now higher than both team's total points per game averages for the year, I feel an Under play is appropriate here. 

Save for the 1Q on Sunday (allowed 38 pts), the Celtics have turned the defense up here in the postseason. In their four wins over the Bulls, they allowed an average of just 90.5 PPG. After the bad start to Game 1 of this series, they buckled down and gave up just 42 total pts in the second and third quarters combined. So they should be fine on that end of the floor. But, it's on offense where I expect them to regress from Game 1. Don't expect another 24 points out of Jae Crowder as that was his playoff career high. Al Horford turned a near triple-double (21-10-9) and I think it's reasonable to assume his production will decrease as well. Isaiah Thomas poured in an emotional 33 pts in the wake of his sister's funeral and also losing a tooth. As good as he's been, I don't see Thomas scoring as many tonight. Again, it's the three-point department where I really expect the Celtics offense to "fall off" from Game 1. They do average 13 makes per game, but that's still an additional 18 pts they got in that department Sunday.

Washington just doesn't have much to offer beyond it's starting backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. Given Beal had a good game Sunday (team-high 27 pts), I would expect the inconsistent shooting guard to possibly have an "off-night" here. Where will the lost production come from then? Well, Markieff Morris is questionable w/ an ankle injury, so it probably won't be him picking up the slack, if he even plays at all. Being so thin in the frontcourt, Washington probably can't take advantage of Boston's one real deficiency, rebounding. So expect fewer second chance opportunities for them. 10* Under Wizards/Celtics

10* Over Jazz/Clippers (3:30 ET): Utah will likely "rue the day" that they blew a chance to close out the Clippers at home. They dropped Game 6, 98-93 as 5.5-pt favorites, and now must go into Staples Center to play a winner take all Game 7. As you've undoubtedly heard, home teams have historically dominated Game 7's in the NBA Playoffs (notwithstanding Golden State's loss in LY's NBA Finals!), going 101-25 SU all-time including 39-25-2 ATS since '90. Throw in the fact that LA is 28-9 SU as home chalk and history does clearly favor one side here. But I believe the better bet is still on the total. Game 6 fell just a bucket short of going Over and for a second straight game we have the lowest O/U for the series. It's too low this time. Take the Over.

Both teams' total points per game average clearly exceed today's O/U line. Even the Jazz, who allowed the fewest PPG in the league during the regular season and play at one of the slowest paces, and there's room to spare. The Clippers average 108.7 PPG at home, so this is a VERY low total for them. Shockingly, they've been able to crack the century mark just ONCE in this series, but there's also been only one time they didn't score 95. I feel they're due for a breakout offensive performance today, even w/o Blake Griffin, who is done for the year. Game 6 saw them shoot 49.3% from the field and were in not for a free throw disadvantage, then the game would have been more lopsided. It should also be pointed out the LA only scored 20 pts in the fourth quarter Friday night.

With Utah, I expect them to shoot far better here than they did on an "off-night" in Game 6. They were just 41% from the field and 7 of 26 from three-point range. For the year, they are at 46.6% overall and 37.2% from three-point range. Again, I have to come back to the fact this is a really low O/U by 2017 NBA standards. The average O/U line for the Jazz this year is 198.0. For the Clippers, its considerably higher at 210. This will in fact be their lowest total ALL SEASON! The first three games here in LA have all stayed Under, so it makes sense that the total has dropped. But now it's too low and it's time for one to go Over. 10* Over Jazz/Clippers

10* Over Clippers/Jazz (10:35 ET): This is yet another instance where a team facing a two games to one deficit has battled back to take control of the series. Utah blew a late lead (at home) in Game 3, but has since put together B2B wins to put the Clippers in a "must-win" spot. This series began w/ the Jazz getting an injury scare (lost Rudy Gobert on the 1st play of Game 1), but he's since returned to the lineup. It was another injury, this one to the Clippers' Blake Griffin (done for the year), that has turned the series. Now Utah has a chance to close out the series at home. Not sure if they do, but I do really like Game 6 to go Over the total. Unless something unforeseen happens, tonight's O/U line will - easily - close as the lowest for any game in the series to date.

Now Utah is one of the top defensive teams in the league. They allow only 95.3 PPG at home. But their total points per game average, whether we're talking overall or just at home, still exceeds the O/U line here. Until the fourth quarter, Game 5 was a low-scoring affair w/ the Jazz leading 64-58 after three quarters. Neither team shot well w/ the Jazz at 43.2% and the Clippers at 42.0%. We should see improvement on both sides tonight. Los Angeles has actually shot poorly in B2B games as they were at only 44 percent in Game 4. For the year, the team shoots above 47% from the floor and 37% from three-point range. They average 108.1 points per game and that average does not dip significantly on the road.

But the Clippers' defense tends to regress significantly outside of the Staples Center. They allow 107.9 PPG on the road, up from 100.3 PPG at home. Not surprisingly then, the Over is 28-15 in all their road games this season. Both games in Utah went Over as well w/ the Jazz scoring 105 and 106 points. The final regular season meeting in Salt Lake City, which ended up being a 114-108 Jazz win, also easily went Over. Six of the past eight meetings here have gone Over. With Clippers' road games averaging 215.5 points per game, it would take an almost Hurculean Jazz defensive effort to make up for the discrepancy here. Even w/o Griffin, I expect the Clippers to score enough here to held send this one Over the total. 10* Over Clippers/Jazz

10* Over Bulls/Celtics (8:35 ET): The trajectory of this series, which has yet to see the home team win (or cover) a single game, altered dramatically over the course of the two games in Chicago. The Bulls returned home with what appeared to be a commanding two games to none advantage, but they lost PG Rajon Rondo to injury and then the next two games as well. Thus, the Celtics are back in the driver's seat, having regained homecourt advantage. There are reports that Rondo will try to play tonight, but I'm refaining from any kind of wager on the side and instead looking at the total. This is the lowest O/U line yet for any game in this series, thus it seems like an opportune time to strike w/ an Over play. Both games in Chicago stayed Under, but we're in Boston now where six of the past seven head to head meetings have gone Over, including both Games 1 & 2. 

In my previous analysis, I noted that the Bulls have been one of the worst shooting teams in the league all year long. But, for the purposes of this series, it has also been established that they have a massive rebounding edge. That somewhat negates the poor shooting we could see from them. In three of the four games in this series, Chicago has been below 43% from the field, although they still scored 106 points in Game 1 despite doing so. Game 2 (here in Boston) was their best shooting performance of the series, easily. Note Boston actually gives up a higher number of points per game at home this year (105.6) and it's not as if they were some kind of stalwart defensively during the regular seasons as they ranked outside the top 10 in efficiency. 

The Celtics can obviously score as well as is evident by the fact they average a healthy 109.0 PPG at home. They were held below that average in both Games 1 & 2, so expect a reprieve here. The Bulls appear to have no answer defensively for Isaiah Thomas, who scored 33 points in Game 4. Boston has actually yet to hit their overall scoring average for the season even once in this series, so they're about "due." Something else to keep in mind is that these are two of the better free throw shooting teams in the league (both over 80%!), so they shouldn't be leaving a lot of points at the line. Both teams' total PPG averages for the season exceed what the O/U line is for tonight. 10* Over Bulls/Celtics

8* Over Grizzlies/Spurs (9:05 ET): After the first two games here in San Antonio, it appeared as if the Spurs advancing was mere formality. After all, they took Game 1 by 29 and Game 2 by 14, making it look relatively easy in the process. But the two games in Memphis went a different way (Grizzlies won both) and now, all of a sudden, the Spurs face a virtual must-win tonight. I think the spread may be a bit high, but the one constant for me in this series has been that the total has been too low. By virtue of going into overtime, Game 4 easily went Over the total. However, OT was actually not necessary to the Over cashing as the game was tied 96-96 at the end of regulation. Two of the first three games went Over (was on both!) and considering tonight's O/U line matches the lowest of the series, that's the way I'm going yet again. 

San Antonio is the most efficient defensive team in the league and gives up only 96.7 points per game at home. But still, their home games average well above the total number of PPG being asked for here. That's due to the fact they also come in averaging 105.5 PPG themselves. Three times in this series, Kawhi Leonard has either matched or established a new career high for most points scored in a playoff game. In Game 4, he went for 43, scoring the team's final 16 in regulation. Unfortunately, he didn't have a ton of help. The rest of the team was an abysmal 2 of 20 from behind the three-point arc and I have to believe that will see guaranteed improvement tonight. The Spurs are 14-8 Over this season when off a loss.

Similarly, Memphis may be known for playing low-scoring affairs, but their total points per game average well exceeds the O/U line here. They actually allowed fewer PPG than the Spurs during the regular season (playing at fewer possessions), but even so, both they and their opponents averaged slightly more than 100 PPG. These are really low totals by 2017 NBA standards. In fact, the average O/U line for both of these teams this season is still > 200 pts. I also believe that the extra day of rest the teams received will be crucial here. That's because Memphis is 9-5 Over this season when playing w/ exactly. The Spurs are 9-3 Over in that same situation. 8* Over Grizzlies/Spurs

10* Over Raptors/Bucks (7:05 ET): I'm a little astounded as to the lack of scoring we've seen so far in this series. The losing side has been held to 87 points or less in three of the four games, all Unders obviously. The lone Over in the series, Game 2 here in Toronto, was a 106-100 win for the Raptors and I anticipate a similar score tonight. The Raptors average 110.1 points per game here at the Air Canada Center. Milwaukee averages a healthy 103.2 PPG itself for the year. Thus, both teams' total PPG average greatly exceed the O/U line for Game 5, which is officially the lowest for any game in the series to date. Shooting numbers have been pretty ugly on both sides, hence the drop, but I suspect we'll see an increase moving forward. That's why I'm on the Over here.

Game 4, where I had Toronto and they won 87-76, was an ugly slugfest that saw the two teams combine to go 10 of 43 from three-point range. Overall, shooting was at a 39.1% clip for the game (63 of 161). Toronto shot just 33% from the floor in Game 3 and that was after a 20% night in the second half of their other loss (Game 1).  But, I again lean on the fact that this team averages 110.1 PPG at home. They were sixth overall in offensive efficiency during the regular season and it's not as if the Bucks were some kind of defensive stalwart (19th in defensive efficiency). The Over is 27-16 this year at the Air Canada Center, so I can't stress enough how shocking it is to see the Raptors only averaging 88.2 PPG on 39.9% shooting for the series.

When Toronto has lost, the focus has been on their starting backcourt of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. That duo combined for 51 pts in Game 4 as DeRozan was able to drive w/ far more success than we'd seen previously. There's still only been one time (Game 2) that both topped 20 pts in the same game though. Given both averaged 20+ in the reg season, I think we'll see a repeat of Gm 2. We should also see a dramatic increase in production from the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, who were a combined 10 of 31 from the floor last game, including 0 for 4 on three-point attempts. Seeing as Milwaukee averages 37.2% shooting from behind the arc and Toronto is above 39% at home, we are very likely to see the two teams combine for more than 30 total pts from three-point range this game. The Bucks are 14-8 Over this season following a DD loss. 10* Over Raptors/Bucks

10* Over Spurs/Grizzlies (9:35 ET): This series has the look of a possible sweep as the Spurs have taken the first two games by margins of 29 and 14 points. But now the scene shifts to Memphis and if there's one game you'd figure the Grizzlies win, it would be this one. I'm not willing to take that change however as I was burned by them in Game 2 (they did cut the lead to five in the fourth quarter). But I am willing to bank on the fact we'll start to see more scoring, not just from Memphis, but San Antonio as well. The Grizzlies have shot the ball terribly the first two games and as a result the O/U line has plummeted for Game 3. I feel the time is ideal to go w/ the Over, a bet I cashed in Game 1.

Now we are dealing with two of the top teams in defensive efficiency here. San Antonio, in fact, finished the regular season ranked #1. But Memphis is hurting - figuratively and literally - without Tony Allen. His absence was duly noted in my Game 1 Over play and sure enough the Spurs scored 111 points on 53.2% shooting w/ Kawhi Leonard leading the way w/ 32 pts. Leonard then set a new career-high w/ 37 pts in Game 2. He's 28 of 28 from the free throw line in two games. That's what happens w/ Allen being out. Overall, San Antonio didn't shoot quite as well in Game 2 (were 31 of 32 from the FT line!), but they're still 19 of 42 from three-point range in the series and that certainly is a bad sign here for Memphis. Playing w/ exactly two days of rest this season, the Spurs are 8-3-1 Over. 

Thus the key for this play is probably Memphis shooting better than they have. Certainly, they can't shoot any worse than they did in the first two games (38% overall). They are 14 of 47 from three-point range. Fortunately, due to the epic post-game rant from HC David Fizdale, they are very likely to get more free throw attempts tonight. (That's just the way the NBA playoffs work). When they get there, expect them to take advantage as they're 26 of 32 from the charity stripe in this series and 78.6% there for the year at home. Even with Grizzlies' home games being among the lowest scoring in the league, the average total PPG (196.3) still topples tonight's O/U line. So too do San Antonio road games (203.8 PPG). Believe it or not, but Tuesday was just the 8th time this season that the Spurs held an opponent below 85 pts. They are 5-2 Over the next game. They are also 12-6 Over if holding the opponent below 90 pts their last time out. 10* Over Spurs/Grizzlies

full analysis soon

10* Under Blazers/Warriors (3:30 ET): News flash: Golden State finished tied for top honors as an Under team during the regular season. A combination of high totals and their underrated defense was the culprit there. They finished 49-32-1 Under in all games, including 21-12-1 in the second half. In what projects as - easily - the most lopsided first round playoff series, the two-time defending Western Conference Champs draw Portland, who by making the playoffs probably didn't do wonders for their future (could have used the lottery pick). The Blazers fell off somewhat dramatically this year, going from 5th to 8th in the West, though it was only a difference of three wins. Things got a lot better once they acquired Jusuf Nurkic from Denver, but he's now hurt and no one is picking them to do much in this series.

The pointspread is the "great equalizer," however, thus I'll be staying away from the side for Game 1. Instead, let's take a look at the total. As mentioned above, Golden State is quite underrated defensively. We all know they ranked 1st in offensive efficiency (third straight year doing so), but they were also 2nd in defensive efficiency, trailing only San Antonio. The real key for them is defending the three-point line. They were #1 in the league, allowing just 32.4% shooting from behind the arc. Given that the three-point shot is such a big component of Portland's arsenal, they are likely to be "up against it" here. Furthermore, Nurkic may not play, which would be a devastating blow. After scoring 130 pts (against lowly Phoenix) in their first game w/o him, it's been major regression ever since. Over the L5 games (all w/o Nurkic), the Blazers have seen their scoring average dip below 100 PPG. 

Golden State will certainly "get theirs" today, but if the game turns into a blowout, then expect the scoring to slow down in the latter stages. Three times in the regular season, the Dubs scored at least 125 pts on Portland, but I do not expect that to be the case here today. When playing w/ three or more days rest this season, the Blazers are 3-0 Under. Nurkic was averaging 15-10, so that's a significant loss. Six times in the last nine visits to Oakland, Damian Lillard has been held to 20 pts or fewer while shooting below 36 percent from the field. 10* Under Blazers/Warriors

8* Over Grizzlies/Spurs (8:05 ET): By 2017 NBA standards, this Game 1 total is incredibly low. Granted, these teams ranked 1-7 in defensive efficiency during the regular season and just combined for only 168 points in regulation in their last meeting. But I still believe you have to go Over a total as low as this one.This O/U line is lower than any of the four regular season matchups. San Antonio games average slightly more than 203 PPG while Memphis games average slightly more than 200 PPG. Those numbers are noticeably higher than the Game 1 O/U line here. San Antonio averages over 105 PPG, so I'm not concerned at all over the fact they failed to break 100 in any of their final three reg season contests (when they had NOTHING to play for). Take the Over.

There's no sugarcoating this one iota. Memphis has received terrible news in that ace defender Tony Allen is expected to miss this entire series. Expect his absence to further hurt a Grizzlies defense that slipped in the second half. Allen's calf injury occurred in the regular season finale, so we don't have a huge body of work to go on when he's M.I.A.. But we do know that he was the primary defended on the Spurs' Kawhi Leonard and played a large role in holding him to 23 of 54 shooting in three regular season games. Also, Leonard missed one of the regular season matchups, a game where the Spurs scored just 74 pts. Just go ahead and toss that game out the window as it bears little meaning here and only skews San Antonio's scoring capability against Memphis. Note that w/o Allen in the lineup, the Grizz gave up a MINIMUM of 95 pts every game and an average of 101.7 PPG. 

San Antonio averages over 105 PPG at home and Memphis' defense suffers on the road. So, the question now becomes: can the Grizzlies score enough to help send this one over? Yes. If Marc Gasol regains his January form. Also, three-point shooting will be key. Grizzlies' road games were substantially higher scoring than their home games, in part due to their own scoring average rising. The end result of that was a 24-17 Over mark in their road games. This wasn't a great shooting team down the stretch, but they can't get any worse and their defense is likely to slip significantly w/o Allen. San Antonio should shoot better here than it did down the stretch as well. 8* Over Grizzlies/Spurs

10* Over Bucks/Raptors (5:35 ET): I think this is going to be the "best" (i.e. most competitive) first round playoff series in the East. I was a big fan of the Bucks this year, so it's nice to see them in the postseason following a one-year hiatus. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads a promising young squad that underachieved much of the first half, but finally played up to its potential down the stretch. Milwaukee is one of just seven teams in the East to outscore its opponents during the regular season (ironically two of them, Miami & Charlotte, FAILED to make the playoffs). Antetokounmpo, the so-called "Greek Freak," became the first player since LeBron James in 2008-09 (1st stint in Cleveland) to lead his team in all major statistical categories and he did it at age 22.

Toronto finished third in the East, but has the best point differential and did so despite losing Kyle Lowry for most of the second half. They went 18-7 SU w/o Lowry and were severely undervalued much of that time. Now that the All-Star PG has returned, I believe the market is spot on for Game 1. I do find it interesting that Milwaukee actually went 17-10 SU in the 2nd half even though it was outscored, a sharp contrast to the 1st half when they were under .500 despite outscoring opponents. The Bucks were by no means outstanding underdogs (just 18-23 ATS), but the Raptors' 7-17 ATS playoff mark (2-9 in 1st rd games) is worrisome. 

So let's finally look at the total. Both teams ended the regular season by scoring far less than they averaged over the balance of the season. The Bucks averaged just 88.2 points the L5 games, well below their season average of 103.6. Perhaps that's why this total is so astonishingly low. At the same time, they also allowed only 97.4 PPG those L5 contests, significantly fewer than their season average of 103.8. For the record, the Bucks were 4-1 Over after the Break w/ a total of 200 pts or lower. Likewise, Toronto's total PPG average for the year far exceeds the total here and what we saw from them the last five games. At home, the Raptors average 110.9 PPG and it's not as if Milwaukee is some kind of defensive stalwart. In fact, the Bucks rank 19th in defensive efficiency. Both teams went Over more than they did Under in the regular season and that was w/ average O/U lines much higher than this one. This O/U line is also lower than all four regular season matchups. 10* Over Bucks/Raptors

10* Under T'wolves/Rockets (8:05 ET): One of these teams is wrapping up its season tonight while the other is getting ready for a 1st round playoff series vs. the Thunder. Minnesota is the former and while their record is a lousy 31-50 (worse than Sacramento!), they're a much better team than that and should make the playoffs next year. They've only been outscored by roughly one point per game and have the most blown double-digit leads in the league. Last night saw them lose a tough one at home to Oklahoma City, 100-98, a game in which they were actually four-point favorites (no Westbrook for OKC). That offensive performance is hardly inspiring for tonight's finale and I'll again remind you that in terms of makes, this is the worst three-point shooting team in the league. Take the Under.

Houston has no issues offensively as they'll finish second in efficiency, behind only Golden State. That said, they're off a rare sub-100 pt effort Monday as they were blown out in LA by the Clippers. Things should improve here against the 26th ranked team in defensive efficiency, but to what degree? HC Mike D'Antoni has been resting players in preparation for the playoffs and I wouldn't be surprised if this is a short night for MVP candidate James Harden as well. The team is 7-3 Under this season when coming off a double digit loss. After giving up a total of 253 total pts the last two games, I do expect to see some improvement on the defensive end, however. Minnesota, whose two young superstars (Wiggins and Towns) rank near the top of the NBA in minutes played, might very well be "gassed" by this point, especially w/ this being the second game of a back to back. 

While "old hat" for Houston, this is a high O/U line by T'wolves' standards. They are 6-2 Under this season when the total is 220 points or higher. Yes, the last time these teams met, they combined for 272 points and that was in regulation. That was each team's season high in points scored. But I seriously doubt we'll see a repeat of those performances as the Rockets were 22 of 58 from three point range and the T'wolves shot 52% overall from the floor. Also, the teams combined for 70 free throws that night. The Rockets have actually seen six of their last eight games stay Under the total, a sign that the oddsmakers have begun posting totals that are too high. 10* Under T'wolves/Rockets

8* Over Hawks/Pacers (8:05 ET): It all sets up pretty well for the Pacers to make the playoffs and take on LeBron James and the defending NBA Champion Cavailers in the opening round. By virtue of a win last night, the Hawks have nothing to play for in tonight's regular season finale as they are locked into the #5 seed and will take on Washington in the opening round. Thus, we've seen a rather sizable jump in the line for this game. I'm not interested in laying that many points w/ Indiana, but I do believe there's plenty of value w/ the O/U line, which seems far too low. The Pacers have averaged 117.8 points over their last five contests and are a far more prolific team at home. I highly doubt we'll see anything close to Atlanta's defensive performance from last night when they held a Kemba Walker-less Charlotte team to just 76 points.

No matter who ends up making the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, I view the Hawks as the weakest team in the field. They've actually been outscored over the course of the season. Last night helped that scoring differential a lot, but tonight likely adversely affects it. Key players will likely be rested in preparation for the playoffs, so the offense could take a hit. Yet, there will be a hit at the defensive end as well. With zero to play for, I can't see the Hawks playing lockdown defense tonight. Indiana will absolutely shoot better than the ugly 33% we saw from the Hornets last night. 

In fact, the last two games have seen the Pacers shoot 59.3% and 57.6% respectively. Admittedly, that was against Orlando and Philadelphia. But the "skeleton crew" they'll be facing here may not offer much more resistance. Also, this is a home game and Indiana is 28-12 SU here, averaging 107 PPG. Paul George has topped 20 pts in 11 consecutive games, overall. Defensively, I'd like to point out that the team just gave up a combined 223 points the L2 games, to two of the worst offensive teams in the league. The Under may have cashed in both prior head to head meetings this season, but this is the lowest O/U line of the three games. Thus, there's some value in taking the Over as the game could very well end up as a blowout and feature little in the way of defense late. 8* Over Hawks/Pacers

10* Under T'wolves/Lakers (9:35 ET): Neither of these teams are headed for the postseason, but the respective future outlooks are much different. Minnesota is a team I'd buy stock in - right now. Sure, a 31-48 SU record looks wholly unimpressive, especially when you consider they're tied w/ a Sacramento team that essentially gave up at the trade deadline. But, a look inside the numbers reveals the vast potential that the T'wolves have. Thursday's 105-98 setback in Portland marked the 21st time this year the team has lost a game in which it held a double digit lead! They've only been outscored by a margin of 1.1 points per game over the course of the season. So, expect a big jump in the standings next year. As for the Lakers, who have inexplicably won three straight (allowed < 100 pts in B2B games!), I wouldn't trust Magic Johnson w/ your money.

This will be the third matchup between these teams in the last 16 days. The previous two both went Over the total as have the last five overall. All five of those games have seen remarkably good shooting from both sides. Considering neither is exactly stout defensively (Lakers are 29th in efficiency), maybe that shouldn't come as a shock. But the performance we saw from the Lakers the last time they hosted Minnesota (14 of 23 from three-point range) isn't going to be repeated any time soon. Sure enough, they dropped to 9 of 27 in a 119-104 loss in Minnesota the following week. Speaking of three-point range, the T'wolves are among the least prolific teams in the league in that department. They, in fact, average the fewest number of makes per game (7.4).

I cashed the Under in Minnesota's aforementioned loss to Portland Thursday. It was an easy double digit winner. But Friday's loss to Utah wound up being a pretty wild game. They lost that one 120-113 as they allowed the Jazz to shoot 60% from the field. Just by the law of averages, the defense will be better tonight. Right after the All-Star Break, this team saw a rash of Unders cash (six straight), so it was only natural for the Over to make a "rally" over the last month. As mentioned earlier, the Lakers have actually held B2B opponents under 100 pts. The final score from the last home game vs. Minnesota is misleading as it was an overtime game. I like the Under here. 10* Under T'wolves/Lakers

10* Under Thunder/Nuggets (5:05 ET): Oklahoma City is off an absolutely dreadful performance, one where they were blown out by a Phoenix team that came in on a 13-game losing streak. I'm proud to report I took the Suns in that one (who needed that +8?) and while I stated in my analysis that OKC had little to play for (they're basically locked into a 1st round matchup w/ Houston), you still would have expected a better performance than that. Of course, the most notable item from said defeat was that Russell Westbrook clinched averaging a triple double for the entire season. He's the only player besides Oscar Robertson to acheive that impressive feat and would need one more triple double to break "The Big O's" single-season record w/ 42. Though one would expect Westbrook and the entire Thunder team to shoot better than they did Friday, I still believe Under is the way to go here.

The thing w/ Westbrook's individual accolades is that the team's offensive efficiency has fallen off somewhat dramatically. I've been harping on this throughout the year. Last year w/ Kevin Durant, the Thunder finished #2 in the league in offensive efficiency. This year, they've dipped all the way down to 16th! Down the stretch, Westbrook has not shot the ball well at all as his pursuit of the triple double record seems to have superseeded having an efficient offense. He's barely shooting 40% from the floor in April and had his worst shooting game of the season against Phoenix, including an odious 2 for 13 first half. He finished the game just 6 of 25 overall and 2 of 12 from three-point range.

Let's talk about Denver some, shall we? They've played well down the stretch, yet the odds for making the playoffs are not in their favor. They trail Portland by 1.5 games w/ three to play. They have been the top Over team in the league this year due to the combination of having the fourth most efficient offense and 30th (last!) ranked defense. The Over has hit in both previous meetings vs. OKC this year (five straight overall!), but this O/U line is the highest yet. Defensively, they should benefit from the fact that the Thunder's scoring average dips to 103.7 PPG on the road. Meanwhile, I do not see the Nuggets' recent level of scoring - both in terms of points scored and allowed - being sustained. Add up their total PPG average for the year and it's below this O/U line. The same certainly holds true for OKC. 10* Under Thunder/Nuggets

8* Under T'wolves/Blazers (10:35 ET): Right now, Portland has the inside track for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference (top seven teams have clinched). They not only have the head to head tiebreaker over the Nuggets, but also a one-game advantage in the standings. Plus, they play their final four games at home, starting w/ this one against Minnesota. Expect the young T'wolves to be a playoff team next year, but for now they're just relegated to spoiler. Given the circumstances involves, this line seems about right, but I think the total is too high. Both teams have been scoring and allowing more points per game than usual recently, thus we should start to see a return to "normal" levels any day now. It starts here w/ a play on the Under.

Minnesota's last five games have all gone Over the total as they've averaged 113.6 PPG while at the same time allowing 114.2. For the year, they average "just" 105.5 PPG and allow 106.4. So, that's a pretty substantial increase we've seen of late (about 16 PPG), one that should regress to the mean. As you can see, the team's average total points per game for the season is noticeably below what the O/U line is for this matchup. Although they did go Over the total against Portland three days ago (just barely), the Under remains 9-2 for the T'wolves in division contests this season. This is their third game in four nights as well (and they're at Utah tomorrow), so fatigue could be a factor for this young squad.

Monday's matchup between these two saw the T'wolves prevail 111-109. The O/U line was 217. Minnesota won despite making only four three-pointers the entire game, but don't expect much of an increase in that department tonight as this is one of the least prolific three-point shooting teams in the league. As for Portland, they are off a dreadful offensive effort Tuesday night in Utah where they scored just 87 points on 39.8% shooting. Granted, Minnesota is nowhere close to Utah on the defensive end, but I think they can slow the Blazers down enough to help keep this one Under the total. The Under has cashed in three straight meetings here in Portland. 8* Under T'wolves/Blazers

8* Under Thunder/Magic (7:05 ET): Recent Thunder games have not deviated much from the typical amount of scoring we see from them. They come into tonight averaging 107 points per game for the year and over the L5 games have averaged 108.8. At the same time, they're allowing a virtually identical number per game over the last five (106.1) as they do for the year (106.0). This is not the case for Orlando, however. The Magic are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, but have averaged over 110 PPG their L5 contests. They're also giving up more PPG of late than per usual. Given neither team's offensive efficiency is that good and Orlando is bound to regress anyway, I'm on the Under here.

My main point w/ the Thunder this year has been despite the wonderful individual season put together by Russell Westbrook, the team's overall offensive efficiency has declined greatly. Last year, with Kevin Durant in the fold, they ranked 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency. This year, they are down to a rather pedestrian 16th. Four of the team's past five games have stayed Under the total, including the last one where they barely escaped Dallas w/ a 92-91 win. On the road, the team's scoring average does dip several points down to 103.2 PPG. On the bright side, it was the third time in the last five games that they held their opponent below 42.5% shooting. Defensively, this team is tied for ninth in efficiency, which is a bit of a surprise. The Under is 21-11 in Thunder road games this season.

As for Orlando, we should expect a dramatic decrease in scoring rather soon. As I mentioned above, they come in averaging 110 points over the L5 games. For the season, they average just slightly over 100 and at home the number is actually slightly below triple digits. They are 29th in offensive efficiency and 28th in points per game. Don't expect many second chance points here as the Thunder are one of the top defensive rebounding teams in the league. One bit of good news though is that the Magic are also likely to start allowing fewer points per game moving forward. They were torched for 131 in a loss at Toronto Monday, but at home give up only 102.7 per game. In their last home game, they held Detroit to 87 points. Neither of these teams is very prolific from three-point range either (both under 33%). 8* Under Thunder/Magic

10* Under Wizards/Lakers (10:35 ET): The Lakers are an atrocious team doing a remarkable job of tanking right now. They've won only twice since the All-Star Break. Defensively, you won't find a worse team. They are 30th in efficiency and giving up an average of 116.2 PPG their L5 contests. Here, they are heavy underdogs to a Wizards team that is in the playoffs as one of the top four teams in the Eastern Conference. Over has typically been the way to go w/ this Washington team in March as it's cashed in 11 of their last 14 games. Last time out, they shot nearly 60% from the floor in a 127-115 win over Cleveland. As "tailor-made" a matchup as this might seem to be for them, I feel it's going to be lower scoring than expected. This is a really high number, so go w/ the Under.

Even though they're facing the Lakers, don't expect the Wiz to shoot as well as they did Saturday vs. Cleveland. That's just too hard to do. Also, on the road, we predictably see their shooting drop a bit anyway. The Lakers might be last in the league in field goal percentage allowed, but even so that % is "just" 48.2. That's a substantial drop from what the Wizards shot in their last game. There was also a big offensive effort against Brooklyn Friday, but in the three games prior to that, Washington failed to shoot better than 43% from the floor. This will be among the highest O/U lines for any of their games ll season.

Even for the Lakers, this is a high O/U line. While we've established that the defense is bad, so too is the offense. This blatant tank job has seen HC Luke Walton move to play his younger players and it was an ugly 81-point effort their last time out in Portland. That's a Blazers team that is not good defensively. They shot a pitiful 39.3% in that game. (On the bright side, they did hold Portland to just 40.4%!). Note that the 130 points scored in the win over Minnesota Friday night is a bit misleading as that included a 21-point effort in overtime. There have been only three times previous that the Lakers have scored 85 points or less. They went Under their next time out twice. Neither team's total PPG average comes close to exceeding the O/U line here. 10* Under Wizards/Lakers

full analysis soon

10* Under Cavs/Nuggets (9:05 ET): These are two of the five most efficient offenses in the league, but still, this number is way too high. Because they are also 29th in defensive efficiency (right between Brooklyn and the Lakers!), the Nuggets are the top Over team in the league. But, again, the number is too high. Cleveland is by no means a defensive stalwart as we saw in a 125-120 win over the Lakers Sunday. But, say it with me, this number is too high. Yes, the teams combined for 234 points (125-109 Cavs win) last month, but ... you get the picture. Take the Under. 

The defending NBA Champs essentially "waved the white flag" on Saturday, resting LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love against the Clippers. They lost 108-78 as a result. Being able to beat the Lakers by only five w/ the "Big 3" all suited up was hardly cause for celebration. Led by Irving's 46 points, the team did shoot 52.9% and that was enough, however. But the Over is still only 6-6 this year in Cavs' games when the total is 220+. Theoretically, they shouldn't have much difficulty scoring here, but even so, their games average "only" 216.7 total points. That's substantially lower than this O/U line, which will be the third highest for any of their games this season. They stayed Under the highest line, 10 days ago at Houston.

Even for Denver, whose games average the most total points in the league (223.3), this is a high O/U line. They were just swept in a home and home with Houston. The second game was higher scoring than the first, considerably so, as they fell 125-124 on a last second James Harden layup. But I look for their offensive production to decrease here. They can't possibly continue to average 118.4 points like they have over the L5 games. They shot just 40% in the first meeting vs. Cleveland and it looks like Danilo Gallinari won't play again tonight.  Too many things have to "break right" to go Over a total this high and I just don't see it happening here. 10* Under Cavs/Nuggets

8* Over Jazz/Pacers (7:05 ET): There's been an incredible rash of Unders in Indiana games recently, but I shouldn't have to tell you that tonight's total is exceedingly low by 2017 NBA standards. Of course, that's got a lot to do w/ the opponent here as well. Utah is the top defensive team in the league - at least by points per game allowed (96.3) - and they've gone Under in three straight as well. But I have to go back to just how low this total is. Last night was the first time in over three months that the O/U line was sub-200 for a Pacers game. It went Over - easily - as they allowed 116 points in a loss to the Raptors. This is just the third sub-200 pt O/U line for them all season and the Over is 2-0 previously. Their games average slightly more than 209 PPG this year, so this number is just way too low. Take the Over. 

As I said before, Utah is 1st in the league in points allowed. They are third in defensive efficiency, trailing only the Spurs and Warriors. Yet, this is a low total even for them. Their games average 196.6 PPG for the season and I've got to imagine we're about to see an uptick in their offensive production. They've shot poorly the last two games - losses at Cleveland and Chicago - and failed to score more than 86 pts either time. For the year, they average 100 PPG. They haven't been held below 90 in three consecutive games at any point this season. I'm hopeful that either Shelvin Mack or Rodney Hood returns tonight, but even if neither does, we're due to see an uptick in offense from the last two games. Indiana allows over 105 PPG.

The Pacers also average 106.5 PPG at home. They've been way under their season average of late, last night included, having failed to score even 100 pts in seven of their last nine games. They're averaging just 91.4 PPG on 43.4% shooting the L5 games, averages which are absolutely due to regress to the mean. At the same time, their defensive numbers have also improved, thus the rash of Unders. But last night they allowed 116 pts to a Toronto team that doesn't have Kyle Lowry. I expect Utah to shoot well here, certainly better than most recent Indiana opponents have. When these teams played two months ago in Salt Lake, the Jazz won 109-100 (and the game was 60-50 at half). Now the total is significantly lower. Both of these teams shoot pretty well from three-point range. 8* Over Jazz/Pacers

8* Over Hawks/Hornets (7:05 ET): I'm not surprised by the line for this Southeast Division matchup at all. My own power rankings have said that Charlotte has been the better team, basically all year. Now Atlanta has lost three straight (last two as home favorites) and will be w/o Paul Milsap for at least the next two games. Meanwhile, Charlotte picked up a crucial win Saturday night here at home, beating Washington 98-93. While the Hawks are five games over .500, they've been outscored on the year. The Hornets might be nine games under .500, but they've actually outscored their opponents. Yet, I can't lay the points here as it seems as if the market has caught up to the discrepancy that exists between the two teams. Instead, let's look at the total. I'm on the Over.

The current three-game losing skid that Atlanta is on has seen them get held under 100 pts every time out. The margins of defeat have grown w/ each passing game, culminating in a 16-point home loss to Portland on Saturday. That game saw them shoot just 36.4% from the field, which is well below their season average of 45.5%. Not a great offensive team by any means, the Hawks now need to find a reliable option w/ Milsap out of the lineup. Kent Bazemore is also out. How about Ersan Illyasova, who scored 23 pts while starting in Milsap's place Saturday? Or Dennis Schroeder, who simply HAS to improve after a disastrous 2 of 14 shooting performance against the Blazers.

Eight of the last 10 times these teams have played, the Under has cashed. That includes four in a row. Two of those have come this season, but the last meeting was all the way back in December. This is a game that Charlotte clearly must have and they are averaging over 105 PPG. They are 2-0 vs. the Hawks so far this season, averaging 103.5 PPG in the two victories. Something I find odd is that the Hornets' defense has been significantly better in division games this year (96.1 PPG allowed) than it has overall (104.2 PPG allowed). That doesn't speak well to Atlanta's chances here, but I think that discrepancy is about to rectified even w/o Milsap and Bazemore. Both teams' total PPG average exceeds tonight's O/U line, which would be the lowest of any of the three meetings this season. 8* Over Hawks/Hornets

10* Under Lakers/Nuggets (10:35 ET): The Lakers and Nuggets are the two worst defensive teams in the league (according to efficiency numbers) and have combined to go Over the total the last seven times they've played. But I'll go "contrarian" here with the Under. Note I'm not being a contrarian w/o cause. The number here is really high as, generally speaking, we've seen scoring explode league-wide this season. But even as bad as these two have been defensively, their total PPG averages really don't come close to exceeding our O/U line for tonight. Take the Under.

Denver has actually stayed Under in 8 of its past 11 games including five of the last six. They've turned in B2B quality efforts on the defensive end, holding both Boston and Sacramento below 100 points. Both were much-needed wins as they continue to try and hold onto the eight seed in the Western Conference. In fact, the last four times the Nuggets have won, they've held the opponent below 100 points! Now that's been somewhat uncommon for the league's top Over team, who is also a perfect 6-0 Over this season in games where the total is 230 pts or higher. But we're starting to see the team's reputation catch up with them w/ the recent rash of Unders. It should also be noted that Under has shown a slight profit this year in games where Denver is favored!

The Lakers have generally been a disaster, losing 36 of their last 46 games after a 10-10 start. But they did actually win a game Thursday (I was on them!) against Phoenix. But they quickly reverted back to their losing ways yesterday by falling at home to Philadelphia, 118-116 as five-point chalk. They are now 1-9 SU the L10 games, a stretch that predates the All-Star Break. As a result, HC Luke Walton has decided to shuffle his lineup. Rightly so, but expect some growing pains at the offensive end in the interim. Before yday's loss, the Lakers had stayed Under in four of the previous games. They average only 101.7 PPG on the road. Too many things have to "break right" for a game to go Over a total this high. Denver's certainly done it before, but not here. 10* Under Lakers/Nuggets

10* Over T'wolves/Bucks (8:05 ET): For much of the year, I've spent questioning my own personal power ratings on these two teams, who have consisently rated higher in efficiency than you might think. All of a sudden now, both Minnesota and Milwaukee are starting to make their relatively lofty rankings (T'wolves 14th, Bucks 10th) look accurate. The T'wolves are off a HUGE win last night as they beat Golden State. It was their sixth win in the last eight games (losses to Houston and San Antonio) and they're 8-0 ATS during that stretch. Not to be outdone, the Bucks are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS their last five games. In addition to being hot at the betting window, both sides have also seen a lot of Unders come in recently (Both 7-1 last 8). I can't make a pick on the side here, but do see the respective Under streaks coming to an end as this total is just too low. Take the Over.

The Bucks are now eighth in the Eastern Conference following a 99-85 win over Indiana last night. That score seemingly doesn't put them in a great spot as they're just 4-17 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 85 pts or less. The Pacers were held to just 35 pts in the second half as a halftime deficit turned into a relatively comfortable win. Such a defensive performance is uncommon for the Bucks, who are 19th in the league in efficiency on that end of the floor. But they are 10th in offensive efficiency. In fact, Minnesota joins them in being top 11 in offensive efficiency, but also bottom 11 in defensive efficiency. When these teams met back in December, it was a 116-99 Minnesota win that went Over a total several points higher than this O/U line.

The T'wolves might still be 2.5 games back of eighth place in the West and needing to jump three teams. But I can make a pretty good case that this is definitely the eighth best team in the Conference. They're outscoring teams on a per possession basis, which is something Oklahoma City cannot claim. However, if I do see an issue here it's the fact they allow 106.8 PPG on the road while Milwaukee averages 107.1 PPG at home. Both teams' total PPG scored and allowed exceed this O/U line by several points. So just an "average" game from both would result in a pretty easy Over. Both being in the second game of a back to back should see some tired legs and thus lackluster defense. 10* Over T'wolves/Bucks

10* Over Pistons/Pacers (8:05 ET): I've failed a couple of times recently playing Indiana Over the total, but tonight should be "the night." They return home where they average an impressive 106.7 points per game. After opening the second half w/ a 102-92 home win over Memphis, the team has been on the road ever since (five straight games), playing some of the top defensive teams in the league. In fact, each of its last five opponents (save for one) ranks in the top eight in defensive efficiency. The one that did not was Houston and that resulted in a surprising 117-108 win (were 10-pt dogs), but the game still stayed Under b/c it was the Rockets and a high total. The number is more than manageable tonight. Take the Over.

Detroit is off a very big win Monday night as they beat Chicago 109-95. That was as six-point home favorites. After a serious of somewhat dreadful shooting performances, the Pistons have turned it around the L2 games, first shooting 56.8% in a 136-106 rout of Philadelphia, then 48.9% against the Bulls. They are now tied w/ the Bulls for seventh in the Eastern Conference, one game back of Indiana for sixth. A problem though is the defense which gives up 104.6 PPG on the road. They essentially hit that average "right on the nose" the last time they visited Indiana, allowing 105 points. However, scoring only 84 gave them next to no chance. Somewhat perplexing though is they actualy led that game, 58-56, at the half. That means they somehow managed to score less than 30 points in an entire half! That won't happen again. 

Indiana was held to only 88 points in a loss at Charlotte Monday night. Frustrating was the fact they held the Hornets to only 40% shooting and still lost by double digits. Note that game was the second of a back to back, a situation which the team has really struggled in all season (3-11 SU). They average just 101 PPG when unrested as opposed to over 106 PPG when rested. This Under streak is due to end and I'll call for it to happen here as Indiana has shot at least 48.4% from the field in all three meetings vs. Detroit this season. 10* Over Pistons/Pacers

8* Over Pacers/Hornets (8:05 ET): The O/U line has come down some since the open and I believe we've got a value play on the Over. Of course, I did come out on the losing end w/ an Over play on Indiana Sunday. But, it should be pointed out that the game appeared to be on track to go Over through three quarters of play. They led Atlanta 81-74 heading into the fourth, but that's when the scoring - on both sides - came to somewhat of a screeching halt. Interestingly, the Pacers had two 31 pt quarters yday, but scored just 35 in the 1st and 4th combined. The Under is now 7-0 their last 7 games. But I'll again call for the streak to come to an end today against a Charlotte team that is finally starting to come around. The number of points per game that both teams average exceeds the O/U line tonight. Go w/ the Over.

Charlotte was a nice winner for me on Saturday night as they went to Denver and prevailed 112-102 as 5.5-pt dogs. Over the All-Star Break, I preached "buying low" on this team and they've (mostly) delivered. While they only went 3-4 SU on the just completed road trip, they were 5-2 ATS and twice blew double digit leads in the fourth quarter. Out West, things mostly went well save for a bad loss to Phoenix on Thursday. The Hornets have averaged over 111 PPG their last four contests and while not all the games went Over, that's because they typically were facing higher O/U lines than normal. For the season, this team averages 105 PPG.

Indiana has faced plenty of upper tier defensive teams lately, so this game marks somewhat of a reprieve. On the road though, you have to worry about the fact they allow nearly 109 PPG. These teams have met twice so far this year w/ the home team winning big both times. The game here in Charlotte was far higher scoring than the one in Indiana w/ 222 total pts scored. The Pacers' Paul George seems to be ready to break out. He led the way w/ 34 pts yday. That was after a bit of a rough eight-game stretch where he shot just 32.4% from the field. George is too good of a player to continue shooting like that. I see this one sneaking past the number. 8* Over Pacers/Hornets

10* Over Knicks/Magic (7:05 ET): Going into yday, both of these teams were 5-0 Under in their L5 games. That includes a matchup against one another, which took place here in Orlando on March 1st. That 101-90 Knicks victory saw a pretty brutal shooting night from both teams. They combined to shoot just 41.5% overall including 13 of 54 from three-point ranger. However, there were some elements of that game that would lead you to believe that perhaps the Over "should have" cashed. For starters, the teams combined for 53 free throws and made 42 of them. Also, the score was 60-51 at halftime. That means there was only 80 total pts scored in the 2H, a very low number. Both teams have topped 100 pts in all games they've played since w/ the Magic scoring 110 and 114. I believe we're in line to see a much higher scoring game than we did last week. Take the Over.

Orlando's Under streak stopped at five yday in a 115-114 loss to the Wizards. While they covered, it was quite the disappointing result given that the Magic led by 16 at halftime. Their defense was then torched for 70 pts in the second half. This has not been a good offensive team for much of the year (29th in efficiency), but they have scored 224 pts the L2 games. I had them in their last home game, Friday vs. Miami, where they pulled off a 110-99 upset as eight-point dogs. They've shot nearly 50% from the floor these L2 games. Notable is how much lower the O/U line is for tonight's matchup compared to last week. That significant difference has created a ton of value in taking the Over. 

Now, in the interest of full disclosure, I did have the Over in the Knicks game yday vs. the Warriors. It stayed Under, albeit barely. The 112-105 loss saw New York stay surprisingly competitive much of the way after a slow start (only 18 pts in the 1Q). In my analysis, I mentioned that the Knicks' shooting typically picks up at home. Well, them being on the road here isn't necessarily a negative the potential decline in shooting will be mitigated by the fact they allow 110.3 points per game away from home. Also, the Over is 8-3 this year when the Knicks are playing in the second game of a back to back. These are two bad teams (both in bottom 10 of defensive efficiency) w/ little to play for. That should mean little defense and the potential for a shootout. 10* Over Knicks/Magic

8* Over Jazz/Kings (6:05 ET): Again, we find an O/U line that is really low by 2017 NBA standards. Of course, that is not without reason. First off, Utah is involved. They are number three in defensive efficiency (behind only Golden State & San Antonio) and - on average - their games come in as the lowest scoring in the league (196.4 PPG). They allow the fewest points per game in the entire league. Of the only seven games since Feb 1 that have had an O/U line of 200 pts or less, the Jazz have been involved five times. Note that the Over is 4-1 in those games. Here they draw a Sacramento team whose roster has been depleted in the wake of the Boogie Cousins trade. But I maintain that the number is just too low given how scoring has risen by so much this season. Take the Over. 

Every Kings game since the Cousins trade (occurred during the All-Star Break) has stayed Under the total. Going back even further, we find that the Under has cashed seven straight times and in 11 of their last 13 games. But this is a really low O/U line by Sacramento's standard. One would have to go back 20 games to find the last time the oddsmakers called for fewer than 200 total points scored in one of their games. Then you'd have to go back even further - to New Year's Eve to be exact - to find an O/U line lower than this one for one of their games. Yes, the offense will continue to suffer w/o the services of Cousins. But let us not forget what a dreadful defensive team this is. They are tied for 24th in efficiency and allow more than 105 PPG. 

Note that the Over is actually 17-12 in Jazz road games this season. Their last game went Over as they routed lowly Brooklyn, 112-97 as 13-point favorites Friday. That result is good news for us here as the Jazz are 14-5 Over following a double digit win. They have allowed more than 100 points in two of their previous three games. Sacramento comes in with plenty of rest (last played Wednesday), so there really should be no excuse for them not to give some kind of effort here. Still though, you have to worry about the defense. Utah has scored at least 105 pts in 8 of its last 12 games and Friday saw both George Hill and Derrick Favors "go off" to the tune of 53 points. This one sneaks past the low number. 8* Over Jazz/Kings

8* Over Warriors/Knicks (3:35 ET): The Dubs' 1st game since learning Kevin Durant would be out for awhile was quite the sobering experience. Not only did Thursday's 94-87 loss at Chicago represent their lowest scoring output of the season, it also marked the 1st time since April of 2015 that they lost B2B regular season games. Thus, I look for the best team in the league to be quite surly this afternoon for a nationally televised date at MSG. That makes the lousy Knicks "the wrong team at the wrong time." Certainly, we should expect a pretty significant bounce back on the offensive end for the Warriors this afternoon. Not only because they are the #1 team in the league in offensive efficiency, but also due to the fact that New York is 24th in defensive efficiency. Take the Over. 

You can probably expect to hear a lot about how the Warriors are "in trouble" from the usual idiots on TV. But I'm not buying that. This was the #1 team in offensive efficiency the L2 years w/o Durant. Certainly, the so-called "Splash Brothers" - Klay Thompson & Steph Curry - will shoot better here than they did Thursday night when they went a combined 3 of 23 from three-point range. Again, it helps playing the Knicks. Now, if you simply just look at the final scores from the Knicks' recent games, you might actually draw the false conclusion that their defense is improving. But a quick check of the opponents during that stretch reveals that probably isn't really the case. Three of their last four games have come against the bottom two offenses in the league (Philly, Orlando) and the other was against the Lowry-less Raptors. This will be a colossal step up in class for them here.

New York has gone Under in five straight games. Again though, you have to factor in who they were playing. Golden State has gone Under four straight times, but their O/U lines are typically higher than this one. In fact, three of those four games saw an O/U line of at least 228 points! An earlier meeting this season saw a 103-90 Warriors win, but that was w/ the two sides combining to go 14 of 53 from three-point range. The Knicks, for all their problems, actually shoot the ball well here at home. We're talking 46.6% overall and 37.6% from three-point range. Expect a high-scoring affair this afternoon on ABC! 8* Over Warriors/Knicks

10* Over Pacers/Hawks (1:05 ET): At least to me, there's a pretty sizable gap between the top four teams in the East (Cleveland, Boston, Washington & Toronto) and the rest of the field. It's essentially going to come down to a seven-team race for the final four spots. Safest (right now) among that rest of the field is Atlanta, currently in fifth w/ a three-game cushion over their opponent today, Indiana. The Pacers, on the other hand, have only a 4.5 game lead over 11th place Charlotte. Both of these teams have been going Under A LOT lately w/ Indiana's last six games all going that way. Atlanta had an identical streak going, that was until a wild 135-130 loss to Cleveland Friday night. That should be the impetus for a higher scoring affair today as well. Take the Over. 

Believe it or not, but Friday was NOT the 1st time the Hawks allowed 130+ points in a game this season. It has happened two times previous and in each instance, their next game went Over the total as well. They wound up allowing an average of 119.5 PPG in those two contests. Another key factor here is that w/ HC Mike Budenholzer suspended (made contact w/ ref in game vs. Cleveland), the team defense will likely suffer. Offensively, the Hawks are 8-2 Over following a game where they topped 130 points. They average 106.5 PPG at home, but also allow 106.3 PPG here. Somewhat surprisingly, despite those averages, the Under is actually 16-14 in Hawks' home games this year. But the average is certainly higher than the O/U line for this game. 

Indiana has allowed at least 100 pts in nine of its last 10 games. But since the All-Star Break, they've had to face some of the league's better defensive clubs (Memphis, Miami, San Antonio), thus their offense has suffered. The one exception there would be a game against the high-scoring Rockets, which ended up being a 117-108 win. Yet that game stayed Under only due to a REALLY high total. Surprisingly, Atlanta is also in the top five in defensive efficiency. But Friday showed they can be shredded as they allowed a NBA record 25 three-pointers made by the Cavs. Indiana's defense is hardly worth "writing home" about, especially on the road where they allow an average of 109.4 PPG. 10* Over Pacers/Hawks

10* Over Mavericks/Hawks (7:35 ET): This is a VERY low total by 2017 NBA standards. In the entire month of February, there were only FOUR games to close w/ a total of 199 pts or less. The last three all went Over the total (more on those in second). In fact, going back to January 20th, seven of the eight times we've seen a total close at 199 pts or less, the game has gone Over. The last two times this situation presented itself, these two teams happened to be involved. In each case, the opponent for Atlanta and Dallas was Utah. On Feb 6, Atlanta was blitzed by Utah 120-95 (here at home), so that was an easy Over. Three days later, Dallas hosted the Jazz and it was a 112-105 game (in their favor). There has not been a total of 199 pts or less since, a span of almost three weeks! Despite recent results on both sides, I'm on the Over here.

Both teams, as you might expect, come into this game riding long Under streaks. Hence, the low total. Dallas has actually gone Under six straight times. They've failed to break 100 pts in the last five games, something that is exceedingly rare in today's NBA. They still rank near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency, but their numbers are actually up significantly after a terrible start to the year. The team's total points per game average still exceeds tonight's O/U line. The last four times the Mavs have seen an O/U line lower than 199 points, the Over has cashed. While they scored only 82 pts in a meeting earlier this season vs. Atlanta, it was a poor shooting night all-around and they didn't have Seth Curry in the lineup.

The Hawks have gone Under five straight times.  But consider that their home games this year have averaged right around 210 PPG! These last five games have seen the Hawks average only 96.6 PPG, which is well below their season average of 103.4 PPG. They've shot just 41% those L5 games, a number which should drastically improve tonight due to Dallas' defensive numbers on the road (48.6% FG against including 41.2% from three-point range). Atlanta has gone Over its last three times when the total is below 200 pts. They scored 114 points in an upset of Boston Monday night. The total here is far lower than what we usually see for a Hawks game. In fact, the last three times we've seen an O/U line below 200 pts with them involved, the Over has cashed. 10* Over Mavericks/Hawks

10* Over Heat/Mavericks (8:35 ET): Both of these proud franchises (met in the 2011 NBA Finals) appeared on their way to massive rebuilding seasons early on. The famed "Big 3" of Miami (LeBron, Wade, Bosh) are all long. But after an 11-30 start to the season, the Heat shockingly ripped off 13 consecutive wins and covers to get back into the playoff race. They did lose to both Philadelphia and Orlando before the All-Star Break, but then upset Houston as 10-point dogs. They've continued to surge w/ wins over both Atlanta and Indiana in convincing fashion to start the second half. Dallas probably dug itself far too great a hole to get back in the Western Conference race, but similar to Miami, they've been a lot better over the last month or so. Since starting 10-24, they've gone a respectable 13-11 in the New Year. 

By 2017 standards, tonight's game has a very low total. The average total for a Miami game this year has been 203.8 while it's been right at 200.0 for Dallas. So from these teams perspective, it's not that low. Both are in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency, though the Mavericks have actually risen up significantly after that awful start. Dallas also ranks near the bottom of pace of play. Their last five games have all stayed Under w/ neither they or the opponent scoring 100 pts in each of the last three. They beat New Orleans 96-83 on Saturday as the Pelicans got next to nothing outside of its top two superstars. Thus the total here is low. It also helps that the last five meetings between these two have all stayed Under.

Part of Miami's incredible 13-game run was a 99-95 home win over Dallas back on January 19th. That also marks the last time the Heat have failed to score at least 100 pts in a game. It's been a total turnaound the past month or so and they are averaging over 110 PPG their last five contest. It should be noted that it's been almost three weeks since we've seen a NBA game w/ any total this low. Most have involved Utah, but the Mavs have been involved in four such games w/ a total of 200 pts or less, two of them vs. the Jazz. The Over is 7-1 the L8x we've seen a NBA Total at 200 pts or less going back to January 20th. I anticipate both defenses will regress coming off strong performances. 10* Over Heat/Mavericks

10* Under T'wolves/Rockets (9:05 ET): Playing the Under when Houston is involved can certainly be tricky. I was happy to see them score a ton Thursday night as they spoiled the debut of DeMarcus Cousins in New Orleans w/ a 129-99 thumping of the Pelicans. I guessed, correctly so, that NO would be overvalued in the wake of the Cousins trade. Of course, let's not sell the Rockets short either; they are - by most objective measures - the third best team in the league right now, behind only Golden State and San Antonio. Much of their success is owed to the James Harden-led offense, which is second in the league in both points per game and efficiency (trailing only GSW in both areas). But, the O/U Line for tonight's game vs. Minnesota looks a bit high to me. Take the Under. 

The T'Wolves, like the Rockets, started their second half w/ a win. Their assignment was far easier though as they hosted Dallas last night. The 95-84 win saw them completely overwhelm the undersized and undermanned Mavs in the paint. It also matched the second fewest pts given up in a game by Minnesota all season. Clearly, we shouldn't expect the defensive numbers to look so rosy here, but it is worth noting that after holding only five of their first 53 opponents below 90 pts, the T'wolbes have now done just that twice in the past five games! Maybe Tom Thibodeau's approach is starting to take hold on this young team, which by the way is better than it's record shows.

Speaking to what looks like an inflated O/U line, the last time these teams met (Jan 11th), the O/U line for that game was "only" 218 pts. It did sneak Over as Minnesota pulled off a surprising 119-105 win at home. It was the eighth time in the past nine head to head meetings that the Over cashed. But the T'wolves scoring dips noticeably on the road and the shift in the total is significant because the Under is 5-1 for them this year when the O/U line is 220 pts or higher. After starting February by going Over in eight straight times, the Under has cashed in B2B T'wolves games. When you add up what both teams score and allow per game, neither total average exceeds what the O/U line is here. 10* Under T'wolves/Rockets

10* Under Nuggets/Kings (10:35 ET): Sacramento is the butt of all NBA jokes right now for the manner in which it basically "gave away" its lone superstar, DeMarcus Cousins. It certainly does appear as if the old Lakers-Kings rivalry is being renewed in the sense that GM's Phil Jackson (now w/ the Knicks) and Vlade Divac seem intent on outdoing one another in terms of incompetent dealings. But in all seriousness, the Kings are going to be very bad the rest of the way. Their scoring was already declining before trading away Cousins. They failed to break the 100-pt barrier in the final two games before the All-Star Break and have gone Under three straight games overall. They come into tonight averaging "only" 103.0 PPG.

Denver reigns supreme as the top Over team in the league, but this is still a pretty high number, all things considered. Their opponents are a perfect 4-0 Under this season when the O/U line exceeds 220 points. The Nuggets are an incredible 16-5 Over in the same circumstance, which seems unsustainable to me. Note that the previous two seasons saw only TWO Denver games w/ OU lines of 220+! They are last in the league in defensive efficiency, but w/ Cousins gone, Sacramento's leading scorer is Darren Collison at 13.7 PPG! Yikes. So this should be one of the easier defensive assignments of the year, especially now that the Nuggets are back at full health.

Tonight's O/U line is also a sharp increase over the number that linesmakers hung for the previous meeting between these teams. A 120-114 Denver win marked the EIGHTH straight time these teams have conspired to go Over the total, which may explain in part the increase in the total for tonight. But who knows who will be in uniform for the Kings or how they are likely to perform? My guess is "not very well" and in the first game coming out of the All-Star Break, I wouldn't be shocked to see both teams a bit rusty on the offensive end. They can't all go Over for Denver, can they? 10* Under Nuggets/Kings

10* Under Wizards/Pacers (8:05 ET): Three times these teams have met this season and the Over has cashed in all three. The last meeting took place less than a week ago, in the Nation's capital, with the Wizards prevailing 112-107. As is the case here, Indiana was coming off a loss to the Cavs. Only tonight the spot is a bit more difficult from the Pacers' perspective as they were in Cleveland last night. For a fifth consecutive game, Indiana gave up at least 110 pts (113 to be exact) as they fell pray to a barrage of three pointers from the World Champs. Washington is in the top five in three-point FG%, but their overall scoring is due to come to down as is the number of points allowed by Indiana. Look for the Under to hit in this one.

Washington has won 17 of its last 20 games to move into third place in the Eastern Conference. Their last win was quite impressive as they blew out Oklahoma City 120-98 at home. But there is no denying the fact that the Wiz are a much better team at home. In fact, something to note here is the fact they've played far more games at home (31) and than on the road (23) so far. Their road record is just 9-14 SU w/ the scoring average declining to 104.5 points per game. They've played all of one road game in February so far and fortunately for them, it came at Brooklyn. They still needed OT to prevail there. As alluded to earlier, the Wizards' scoring average from the L5 games is set to decline. The fact they have averaged 117.2 PPG over that timeframe is a bit misleading as that includes TWO overtime contests.

Indiana has lost five in a row, yet they are still sixth in the Eastern Conference. But a bit of a divide is starting to form between them and the top five. Having faced Cleveland twice in the L5 games hasn't helped. Last night, the Cavs made 18 three-pointers as Kyle Korver caught fire in the second half. I don't look for anyone on the Wizards to duplicate Korver's performance tonight. For the year, the Pacers allow just 103.2 PPG at home. The Under did still cash last night, mind you, ending a four-game Over streak and before that the Under had cashed in five straight Pacers games. Without rest, Indiana is just 3-8 SU this year, averaging 103 PPG. Don't be surprised to see BOTH teams' shooting a bit off in the final game before the All-Star Break. 10* Under Wizards/Pacers

8* Under Warriors/Nuggets (9:05 ET): This is the highest O/U line for any NBA game to date this season. If there were any two teams capable of going Over, it would probably be the Warriors and Nuggets, but I shouldn't have to explain to you the confluence of events required for a game to go Over an O/U line this high. The previous high O/U line for a game this season was 238.0 for Warriors-Rockets on Jan 20th. That game stayed Under, albeit barely, with Golden State winning 125-108. Note that was also the highest O/U line for any NBA game in almost SEVEN years! Golden State is #2 in the league in defensive efficiency (something that's rarely talked about). The Under is 19-9 in their road games including a perfect 8-0 when favored between -9.5 and -12 points. Take the Under here. 

Denver is the top Over team in the league. They are 37-16 Over in all games including a remarkable 30-9 when the total is 210 points or higher. Their last two games both went Over as they allowed 123 points to the Knicks and 125 points to the Warriors. But both of those games were on the road. Certainly, Golden State will "get theirs" tonight, but it's worth noting that the Nuggets allowed only 87 points (to Dallas) in their last home game. Shifting to the offensive end of the floor, Denver is likely to struggle to score tonight considering they could be w/o a number of key players. We know that leading scorer Danillo Gallinari is out indefinitely due to a groin injury. Kenneth Faried, Emmanuel Mudiay, Darrell Arthur and the recently acquired Mason Plumlee also may all not be uniform here!

I had the Over in Golden State's Saturday night showdown in Oklahoma City (Kevin Durant's return to OKC). The Dubs did not disappoint me, scoring 130 points in rout. It was their third straight game scoring 120+ and this is easily the top team in the league in offensive efficiency. But coming off a high profile win such as that, I think there could be a bit of a letdown tonight and lack of offensive efficiency. They are 4-1 Under their last five games against teams w/ losing records. Eight of the past nine meetings w/ Denver have gone Over, including a 127-119 win back on January 2nd. But this is obviously a higher total than any of those nine previous matchups and over the L2 seasons only that last one would have gone Over this total. I anticipate a Golden State blowout here w/ them taking their foot "off the gas" late, leading to a low-scoring 4Q and an Under. 8* Under Warriors/Nuggets

10* Under Bulls/T'wolves (3:35 ET): Minnesota has now gone Over the total in eight straight games. The last one was quite the high scoring affair as they lost 122-106 here at home to New Orleans. The team's defense continues to be a concern as they've now allowed an average of 113.8 points the last five games. Opponents are shooting above 50% against them during this time! With Tom Thibodeau in place as head coach for the foreseeable future, one has to think that this issue will eventually be remedied. One issue that won't be remedied this year, however, is the health of Zach LaVine. One of the team's three top scorers, LaVine has been lost for the year to an ACL tear. Other than Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, no other player on the team now averages more than 11 PPG.

Minnesota's opponent Sunday afternoon is Chicago. The Bulls have dropped their last two games as today will be the finale of a six-game West Coast swing. Wednesday's loss, while by 31 points, was at least understandable as it came against Golden State. However, there's simply no sugarcoating how bad Friday's 115-97 loss to Phoenix looks. They even got both Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade back in the lineup for that game. Butler, who will be a starter in next weekend's All-Star Game, may not play here as his heel continues to give him trouble. Again, the Bulls are coming off B2B sub-100 pt games and the Under is 18-9-1 in their road games. On the bright side, like Minnesota, their defense should improve as they've given up far more PPG than usual of late. Playing Golden State clearly skews their recent numbers.

Starting in place of LaVine is Brandon Rush, who averages all of 4.8 points per game. When these teams met earlier in the season, with both Butler and LaVine in the lineups, the final score was 99-94 in favor of Minnesota. Despite that, the O/U line remains basically identical for today's rematch. Note both teams rank in the bottom eight in the league in pace of play. In terms of "true shooting," which weighs both FT and 3-pt percentage, the Bulls are next to last in the league. That's due to their last place ranking in 3-pt percentage (.314). In terms of three-point FG's made per game, these teams rank 28th (Minnesota) and 30th (Chicago). They were a combined 10 of 36 from behind the arc in the first meeting. All of the above factors have me on the Under in this one. 10* Under Bulls/T'wolves

10* Over Warriors/Thunder (8:35 ET): Golden State is playing the second of B2B road games while OKC last played Thursday against a Cleveland team that decided to rest starters. But the Warriors should not struggle to score tonight in Kevin Durant's return to Oklahoma City. I say that not only because the Dubs just scored 122 points on a very good Memphis defense last night. But also because the Thunder have allowed 121 and 122 points in their two meeetings with Golden State this year. Thus, the key for tonight's game on ABC will be the Thunder offense, which does average 109.7 PPG at home despite a paltry 21st ranking in offensive efficiency this season. I expect this game to be played at a fast pace. Take the Over. 

At this point, I probably do not have to run through the accolades of the Golden State offense. They are #1 in efficiency - by a wide margin - as they were last year. They also again are pacing the league in points per game at 118.3. They've been above the average in four of the past five games. Last night they scored 122 on 50% shooting against one of the top defenses in the league. They did so w/ Steph Curry scoring only 18 points. Draymond Green had only four, but actually registered a triple double w/ 10 steals. Kevin Durant scored only 24, but you know he'll be highly motivated here. In the two previous games vs. the Thunder this year (both in Oakland), Durant has averaged 39.5 points per game.

Oklahoma City should be able to keep relative pace here. Speaking of pace, both teams are top seven in the league in that department, so this should be a fast paced game. Because they are #2 in pace, the Warriors are allowing over 105 PPG, same as the Thunder. The previous two games this season both stayed Under as OKC didn't shoot well either time, but at home I expect their offensive numbers to improve. 10* Over Warriors/Thunder

10* Under Pelicans/T'wolves (8:05 ET): Minnesota comes into this game on a seven-game Over streak. The Over has also hit the L5 times they've played New Orleans. But, for several reasons, I think we'll be seeing less points scored than expected tonight. First off, both teams' defenses are due to improve. Minnesota is giving up an average of 114.4 points its last five games. That's well above their season average of 105.6 PPG and 10 PPG more than what they allow at home this year. Having faced two of the most efficient offenses in the league during that time (Cleveland, Toronto) didn't help matters. New Orleans is also due to start giving up less. They were torched for 127 pts by Utah on Wednesday, one of their highest totals allowed all season. Finally, the Pelicans scoring average dips rather dramatically on the road. Therefore, I'm on the Under.

Minnesota did beat Toronto Wednesday, 112-109 as three-point dogs. That win snapped a four-game losing streak. That said, the T'wolves allowed the Raptors to shoot 53.2% from the floor, something HC Tom Thibodeau relentlessly harped on afterwards. So I expect the defensive end to be a real point of emphasis tonight. Toronto also made 11 of 24 three-pointers in that game, something I don't think New Orleans is capable of doing. Speaking of three-point shooting, Minnesota's isn't very good either. They are just 28th in the league in 3PM per game. They're also a surprising 25th in pace of play. Remember that they just lost one of their three top players - Zach LaVine - to a season-ending injury as well. This is not a deep team. Other than LaVine, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, no other player averages more than 10.5 PPG. 

New Orleans also allowed a high shooting percentage in its last game. Utah made over 54% of its FGA in a 127-94 rout Wednesday and that game was played in the Big Easy. One has to assume the Pelicans defense can only improve after that poor effort. However, I'm not so sure about the offense. This team averages only 98.8 PPG on the road. That's the third lowest average in the league. While Anthony Davis likely improves on his poor performance vs. the Jazz (scored only 12 pts), he probably won't come close to matching the 45 he scored against the T'wolves the last time these teams met, which was a home game. Because of the low PPG, the Under is 15-9 in Pelicans' road games this season. The Under is actually now 64-39-3 the L106 road games, so this is a long-term trend. 10* Under Pelicans/T'wolves

8* Under Clippers/Knicks (8:05 ET): This is not a very attractive TV matchup as the Clippers are still w/o Chris Paul and the Knicks are still w/o any hope or sensible direction. We knew that Paul's absence would be detrimental to the Clips' fortunes; the only question was just how much. Well, the team has lost seven of its last nine and has quite the challenging schedule this month. This game would certainly appear to be the most "winnable" of the next six, that's for certain. As for the Knicks, they just lost outright at home to the Lakers. So there's not really an edge when it comes to playing the side here, however, the total does appear to be inflated due to the rash of points allowed by both teams of later. Therefore, I'm going to play the Under here.

Twice in the last five games, the Clippers had to play Golden State. As a result, we've seen them give up an average of 123.2 PPG during that time. That number almost certainly will start to come down. They did just give up 118 in their last game, a loss at Toronto, but the Raptors are another of the league's top offensive teams. So too is Boston, who the Clips played Sunday. I actually had the Under there and the final score was 107-102, a pretty easy win and the only time the Under has cashed for LA over its last seven games. But the team they take on tonight ranks just 18th in offensive efficiency, so this is a major reprieve after facing three of the top seven plus a Phoenix team that plays at a top three pace. 

The Knicks recent defensive numbers are also inflated. Although in their case, that's due to one game in particular and not playing Golden State twice. Back on January 29th, they played a four overtime game against Atlanta and lost 142-139. That obviously skews all recent averages. So the fact they have given up about 10 PPG more over the L5 games compared to season long averages should soon be rectified. The Knicks are not good defensively, but facing the Clippers w/o Paul is clearly advantageous. Note that the Under is 5-1 when the Knicks are off a SU loss as a favorite (as they are here). Offensively, the Knicks do not shoot the ball well. Want proof? They have shot 50% or better from the field just TWICE in their last 47 games! 8* Under Clippers/Knicks

10* Under 76ers/Pistons (7:35 ET): Playing Under with both of these teams has brought me recent success. With Philadelphia, it was a game at San Antonio when they were held to only 86 pts on Thursday. With Detroit, it was Saturday's game w/ Indiana where they were held to just 84 points. Still though, there's further "regression to the mean" that's set to take place here as results for both teams have typically been higher scoring than expected over the last two weeks. The Sixers just gave up 125 points in a loss at Miami Saturday, their eighth Over in the last nine games. The Pistons had gone Over in seven straight before Saturday. Season-long results do not support the recent rash of Overs, on the either side, thus I'll be going Under again here.

Let it be noted that Philadelphia remains 30th (i.e. dead last) in the league in offensive efficiency. That's where they've been all season and the place they are likely to stay. They are the ONLY team in the league that does not average a full point per possession. Joel Embiid is again expected to be held out of the lineup tonight. Also possibly M.I.A. for Monday will be Jalil Okafor and Robert Covington. If all three are out, I'm simply not sure where the points will come from. Detroit is a pretty decent defensive team, holding visitors under 100 PPG at home this year. Of course, it also helps that they are 26th in pace of play. 

Similar to Philadelphia, the Pistons are not a great offensive team either. They often struggle to shoot the ball and are 27th in the league in terms of true shooting. In the last meeting with the Sixers, which took place here at home, they scored only 79 points. Philly, like Detroit, is a middle of the road team in terms of defensive efficiency. That last meeting, which took place back in December, was just the fifth win of the year for the Sixers. They shot 55% overall from the field including 7 of 17 from three-point range. I seriously doubt they'll be able to match those percentages tonight. This is another example of a game where the O/U line exceeds what both teams' total PPG average is for the season. It's a scenario I've been exploiting on a regular basis over the last several days. 10* Under 76ers/Pistons

10* Under Clippers/Celtics (2:05 ET): There's been a real uptick in scoring in Clippers games recently. As a result, the last five have all gone Over the total. But I do believe we're about to see some regression to the mean. Looking at the L5 games, they are averaging 113.4 points per game. That's above their season long average of 108.4. Remember that they are still w/o Chris Paul. But defensively is where the real discrepancy lies. The L5 games they've allowed an average of 123.4 PPG. This is well above their season-long average of 104.7 PPG. The number is obviously skewed by the fact they got torched, not once but twice, by Golden State. Boston is prolific, but not that prolific. Take the Under Sunday afternoon.

After giving up 144 pts the first time vs. Golden State, the Clippers allowed 133 more Thursday. The Warriors shot 62% and 52% in the two games. There was a time when LA actually led the league in defensive efficiency. That time is obviously long gone, but they still rank in the top half of the league. The bottom line here is that I can't help but think the defensive numbers will start to improve, if only because they "have" to. Meanwhile, without Paul, I think the offense is going to struggle. Paul was #1 in the league in RPM (Real Plus-Minus) and worth, on average, over nine points per 100 possessions. The team is 5-1 Under this year when playing w/ exactly two days rest. 

Boston has also been on a scoring binge of late. They will typically allow around 105 PPG, a number they've been at consistently of late (108, 109, 104, 107 L4 games). I played the Under in the last game and while it got a little too "close for comfort" at the end, it did hit against the Lakers. The Celtics are more likely to start to see a decrease in production offensively as the L5 games have seen them at 115 PPG, which is roughly seven points higher than their season average. This coincides w/ the likely Clippers defensive improvement. Both teams rank near the middle in terms of pace of play. With the increase in scoring we've seen across the league this year, we're starting to see O/U lines that are starting to get too high. Neither of these teams' total PPG average exceeds what the O/U line is here. 10* Under Clippers/Celtics

10* Under Pistons/Pacers (7:05 ET): Detroit went Over the total again last night. It was their seventh consecutive time doing so. The final result was 116-108, in their favor, at home against Minnesota. It was their second win in a row as they have now fought their way back into a tie for the coveted eighth spot in an admittedly weak Eastern Conference. One of the teams they find themselves competing with for a playoff spot is Indiana. The Pacers have won five straight, including 106-97 over Brooklyn last night. Two familiar opponents, both playing the second game of a back to back, sounds like an Under in my book. That's the way I'm playing this one. 

The Pistons' scoring, as you might have guessed, has been way up of late. Over the L5 games, they are averaging 110 PPG, which is nearly a 10 PPG increase from their overall season average. There was a time, not too long ago, that this was one of the few teams in the league not to be scoring nor allowing 100 PPG. This streak has changed that. I've mentioned this before in a previous writeup, but in terms of "true" shooting (which weighs 3-pt and FT shooting), Detroit is typically among the worst teams in the league. Currently, they are tied for 27th in that department, even after this stretch of increased scoring. The Pistons are also allowing more points per game than per usual. The L5 games has seen them give up an average of 108.8, which is roughly seven more points per game than the season average.

Indiana just won a pair of road games against bad teams, holding them both under 100 points. Last night was a win in Brooklyn (where I had the Nets +7.5 and they came up just short). Needless to say, going from the Nets to any other opponent (save for maybe the Lakers) means a tougher defense. Speaking of defense, the Pacers did a good job last night in holding the Nets to just 37.2% shooting. Another notable difference between this game and last night (from Indiana's perspective) will be pace of play. Brooklyn actually leads the league in that department. Detroit is 26th. So this game should be played at a much slower pace w/ fewer possessions. This is the highest O/U line of the three meetings so far between these division rivals. Detroit is 6-2 Under in the second game of a back to back. 10* Under Pistons/Pacers

8* Under Lakers/Celtics (8:05 ET): This matchup no longer means what it once did, but for some reason the game is on ESPN anyway. The announcers figure to spend more time talking about Magic and Bird than the players actually on the court. While that can get a bit nauseating, this one does figure to turn into a blowout, at least if you believe the oddsmakers. Boston is a big double digit fave here as the Lakers are playing the second game of a back to back. The Celtics are not a team I'm willing to endorse in this price range, so instead let's look at a total which I believe is too high. Are the Lakers bad defensively? Sure they are. But they're not that good offensively either and I see this one staying Under a very high total. 

Looking at Boston, you can expect them to probably give up around 105 points here. That their season long average. But I'm going to call for a decrease in offensive production, even though they are facing the #30 team in defensive efficiency. Over the L5 games, the Celtics have averaged 116.4 PPG. That's well above their season average of 108.2. Looking back, they've been held under 106 only one time since Christmas. That's really impressive, but the total here is still too high. The only time the Celtics have seen an O/U line of more than 220 since X-Mas was against Houston and that game (barely) stayed Under.

Like the Celtics, the Lakers recent defensive efforts have been right in line w/ their season long average. They give up a little more than 110 PPG. But offensively, they've been averaging only 97.4 points the L5 games and sadly they don't even average over 100 PPG on the road for the year. They did score 108 last night in Washington, but I don't see them getting to that number here. They do catch a break in that Boston is likely to be w/o Avery Bradley again. 8* Under Lakers/Celtics

10* Under Sixers/Spurs (8:35 ET): Philadelphia has gone Over in seven straight games following last night's 113-95 loss at Dallas. I say that it's time for that streak to end. The Sixers still rank dead last in the league in offense efficiency and here will be taking one of the top defensive teams in the league. Philly is currently the only team in the league not to be averaging a full point per possession. San Antonio is third in the league in defensive efficiency. I see the home team putting the clamps down in this one, but at the same time not scoring a ton either. Take the Under. 

After losing B2B games as favorites (to Dallas and New Orleans), the Spurs held Oklahoma City to 94 points Tuesday in a much-needed win. At home, they are holding opponents to just 97.8 PPG this year. OKC was held to just 35.3% shooting and turned the ball over 20 times. Granted, the Thunder are no longer what they once were offensively, but they're still eons ahead of Philadelphia. Also, the Sixers have benefited from facing a lot of subpar defensive foes recently. The Spurs are second in the league in points allowed. Again, Philly couldn't even break 100 against Dallas last night.

Without Joel Embiid, the task is even tougher here for the 76ers. The presumptive rookie of the year has missed six of the last seven games w/ a knee injury. Granted they were a much worse team last year, but in the two meetings w/ San Antonio, the Sixers scored only 83 and 68 points. This is a pretty high total from both team's perspective. Furthermore, Philly is 9-2 Under its L11 games as a road dog of 15.5 to 18 points. 10* Under Sixers/Spurs

8* Under Clippers/Suns (9:05 ET): With Chris Paul out until March, it is not a good time in Clipper-land. The team was humiliated Saturday night at Golden State, giving up 144 points in a 46-point loss. Tonight may mark the end of a five-game trip that's seen them go 1-3 SU/ATS, but things get no easier moving forward. After this game vs. the lowly Suns, they have to play Golden State again. That will be their only home game between now and Feb 15 as they'll be emarking on a trip out East shortly. So winning this game seems imperative. However, while the Suns might be awful defensively, do the Clippers have the necessary horses to take advantage? Even w/ Blake Griffin back in the fold, I'm not so sure. Take the Under in this one.

Remember when the Clippers were leading the league in defensive efficiency? That time has long passed as they now rank 11th in that department following the debacle vs. Golden State. That said, any defensive assignment the rest of the way should be considered "small potatoes" compared to what the experienced Saturday night in Oakland. The Warriors shot 62% for the game, had two 40+ pt quarters, and made 17 three-pointers. Even though Phoenix may play at a similar speed to GSW, the results are almost never the same. The Suns are 21st in offensive efficiency and have shot better than 50% in only two of the past 10 games.

These teams met almost exactly one month ago and the Suns were held to just 98 points on 38.2% overall shooting that included a dreadful 2 of 15 from three-point range. The first half was actually pretty high scoring (Clips led 64-58), but things grinded to a half over the final 24 minutes. While Phoenix may not shoot the ball that poorly again, I'm not sure there's a justification for the increase in the O/U line now that the Clips are w/o Paul. Granted, the Suns are not good defensively, but they should be able to do an adequate enough job here. Both teams are on Over streaks, so that's a reason to look to go the other way as well. 8* Under Clippers/Suns

8* Under Pelicans/Pistons (7:35 ET): Both of these teams have been going Over a lot recently, so this is probably a good time to try and go the other way. Over its last five games, Detroit is shooting 48.9% from the floor and averaging 109.4 PPG. Those are much better offensive numbers than what we're used to seeing from Stan Van Gundy's team. The same holds true for the Pelicans, whose last five games have also seen a rise in scoring at the offensive end. Some of that can be attributed to the fact that last night's game (at Toronto) went to overtime. Tied at 96 at the end of regulation, it still was an Under for some (like me!) that bet the game early. Tonight, I don't believe we'll have to worry about OT or much scoring. Take the Under.

The Pistons have not played any OT games recently, but have still scored at least 102 pts in six consecutive contests. This is pretty irregular for what is still the third lowest scoring team in the Eastern Conference. When you talk true shooting numbers, which weigh three point and free throw numbers, this team is always one of the worst in the league. This year has been no different as they rank 27th. Defensively, the team is again driving SVG up a wall w/ four straight bad performances on that end. But for the year, the Pistons are only giving up 98.6 PPG, which is a very good number. New Orleans simply is not as strong offensively as most recent Detroit opponents have been.

The Pelicans average less than 100 PPG on the road and like I said earlier, last night's game went to overtime. The Under is 14-8 in all of their road games so far this season. They did average 113 PPG in a season sweep of Detroit last year, but that included Anthony Davis turning in a career night w/ 57 points in one of them. Last night saw the Pelicans scored only 36 points in the second half in what has to be considered a deflating loss. Other than Davis, there just aren't a ton of offensive options here and now one starting forward (Dante Cunningham) is out w/ a wrist injury.  If there is one silver lining here though; it's that Detroit shot 3 of 27 from three-point range in its last game. I look for a relatively low-scoring game tonight. 8* Under Pelicans/Pistons

10* Under Pelicans/Raptors (7:05 ET): Toronto has not played well recently and can no longer blame injuries. All the key players were in uniform for Sunday's embarrassing loss to Orlando where they were 11-pt favorites and gave up 114 points. Overall, it was the Raptors' sixth loss in the last seven games. Defense has been the primary concern as they've given up more than 100 pts in five of the last six, including 113+ three times. Tonight, they'll be hosting a New Orleans team that enters in off its own bad loss from Sunday. This will be the Pelicans' first road game in awhile as they just completed a 3-3 homestand that included wins over Cleveland and San Antonio. The Over cashed in every game but the last one (scored only 94 pts), but I like the Under here.

Without question, the nadir of the homestand for New Orleans was a 143-114 loss to Brooklyn. I'm sure that will end up being the team's worst defensive performance of the season. Thanks to having Anthony Davis in the middle, the Pelicans actually rank #7 in the league in defensive efficiency. That's pretty impressive. What's not impressive though is the fact their offensive numbers tail off on the road, down to only 98.9 PPG. That's more than a full eight point per game decrease from what they average at home. As a result, the Under is 14-7 in their 21 road games thus far. The team is only 26th in offensive efficiency to begin with and like I said earlier is off a game where they scored only 94 points.

Toronto's last game may have soared Over the total but they'd previously held Milwaukee to just 86 points the game before that. Given the criticism levied on the team's defensive play, I expect it to be a point of emphasis for tonight. Outside of Davis, there just isn't a ton to worry about with the Pelicans. Note that for the year neither teams total points per game exceeds what the O/U line is here. I think the value is on the Under here. 10* Under Pelicans/Raptors

8* Over Grizzlies/Jazz (9:05 ET): As you probably are well aware, scoring is way up in the NBA this year. So, by 2017 standards, this is a borderline microscopic O/U line. Of course, given the participants, we shouldn't be too surprised. Memphis and Utah are the ONLY two teams in the league that neither score nor allow 100 PPG. But it should be noted the Grizzlies are within a hair of that threshold on both ends, scoring 99.9 PPG while giving up 99.7. Last night, they lost 112-109 in Portland, ending a streak of four straight Unders. Utah is also just below 100 PPG themselves (99.4), so this total simply looks too low given the season long averages. Take the Over.

Further aiding our cause is the fact that the Grizz give up 104.8 PPG on the road this year, a number which obviously jumped a bit after last night's result. That will somewhat counteract Utah's PPG allowed going down here at home as the gap is greater on Memphis' end. The Grizz have also scored at least 101 pts in six of their last seven games, ironically only failing to do so against Houston. The Over is 15-8 in Memphis' road games this season. Utah, who has gone Under in three straight themselves, had scored 100+ every time out in a six game win streak prior. Two of the three home games this year when the total is sub-190 have gone Over the total for them.

These teams have met twice before, both times in Memphis. Yes, both games stayed Under similarly low totals. But the first meeting saw abborrent shooting, particularly from the Grizzlies side as they were 2 for 23 from three-point range. Also, Utah didn't really help itself from the free throw line in either game, going a combined 28 of 48. For the year, the Jazz may not be great at the charity stripe, but they're at least 75%.  They also shoot 37.4% from three-point range at home (47% overall). We may not see another O/U line this low for the rest of the NBA season. 8* Over Grizzlies/Jazz

8* Under Nuggets/Suns (9:05 ET): These teams just played Thursday in Denver and the final score was 127-120 in favor of the Nuggets. Clearly, a high-scoring result should not surprise you as Denver is the top Over team in the league this year. In fact, the Over is now an incredible 24-6 for them even when the O/U line is 210 or higher! Phoenix is hardly a defensive stalwart as they allow 111.8 PPG, which is right around the same number Denver gives up. But I'm willing to bank that they can't go Over the same high number a second straight time and thus I'm on the Under here. Even w/ the somewhat dramatic increase we've seen in scoring this season, this is a high number. Neither team's games average more 221.2 PPG.

Having just met two nights ago, there should obviously be greater familiarity between the two sides. Now, I'm well aware that all three matchups this year have gone Over. But the O/U line was made significantly higher for Thursday's meeting. Denver has scored at least 120 in all three games vs. Phoenix this year, but is expected to be w/o Nikola Jokic tonight, which would be a major loss. Jokic tallied 27 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists before leaving w/ a hip strain Thursday night. The injury took place w/ less than two minutes remaining in the game, so it had no bearing on the outcome. But missing Jokic for a full game here would obviously have a somewhat dramatic effect on offensive production.

Also on Thursday, Denver made 21 of 25 free throws - in the second half! They should not get that kind of "added production" here on the road. For the year, they average 26 free throws per GAME. Additionally, I don't see the teams combining to shoot as well as they did Thursday. Both were better than 51% including 19 of 52 from three-point range. Even by both team's lofty standards, this is a really high total. They may have gone Over it Thursday, but consider a "tipping point" of sorts as Denver in particularly is highly likely to see overall scoring decrease somewhat moving forward. 8* Under Nuggets/Suns

10* Over Bulls/Magic (7:05 ET): Scoring has exploded in the NBA this season, so almost instinctively, you have to look to the Over. I had no problem doing so here, even though the Bulls are the top Under team in the league right now (28-15-2) and have gone Under in each of the last four meetings vs. the Magic. Why, you ask? Well, for starters, Orlando has given up at least 109 points in five of its last six games. The Bulls scored 112 on them in the first meeting of the season, back in November. At the same time, I expect the Magic to shoot a lot better tonight compared to two months ago. They were just 38.8% for the game and attempted only six free throws. It was actually a 61-52 game at the half (in favor of Chicago) before scoring screeched to a halt in the second half and the Under barely cashed.

The Bulls last played on Saturday and beat the Kings, 102-99. Again, that was a fairly high scoring first half (107 total pts), but the second (3Q in particular) was a different story. Chicago was lucky that Sacramento has little beyond Boogie Cousins, who went for 42, but the rest of the Kings scored only 57. Defensively, this team is not even close to what it was during the Tom Thibodeau days. They're allowing 102.1 PPG on the road this season and haven't allowed fewer than 99 in any of their last nine games, period. On offense though, the team posted its best rating in awhile against the Kings. The Magic aren't a whole lot better defensively than Sacramento.

Orlando ran into Golden State Sunday afternoon and you can pretty much guess how that one went. They allowed 118 points and lost by 20. It was their second 118-98 loss in the L3 games. In between, they scored 112 in a rare rout of Milwaukee. As I've already noted several times, defense is not this team's strong suit. Over the L5 games, they've given up an average of 114.2 PPG w/ opponents shooting nearly 50% from the floor. That's negated the team's own 105.4 PPG scoring average. For the year, the team does rank 29th in offensive efficiency, but again - they won't do any worse than they did the last time facing Chicago. That November 7th matchup saw the teams combine to go 12 of 49 from three-point range. We'll see much better here. 10* Over Bulls/Magic

10* Over Mavericks/Heat (7:35 ET): Scoring is way up this year in NBA. But neither of the two teams involved here have really played any kind of significant role in that. In fact, they happen to be the two lowest scoring teams in the league currently. Miami ranks 29th in the league in offensive efficiency (ahead of only Philadelphia), but has scored 108 and 109 pts respectively in their last two games. Dallas is dead last in the league in points per game (95.7), but actually up to 25th in offensive efficiency. Even though neither team averages 100 PPG, you have to think that this total is too low given the level of scoring we've seen in the league this year. Both teams also happen to struggle defensively. Take the Over.

Dallas is allowing opponents to shoot better than 47% overall for the year and over 40% from three-point range. On the road, those numbers get slightly worse and as a result they give up 102.7 points per game. Miami allows 103.0 PPG at home. Both teams are also off upset wins; Dallas in Chicago and Miami here at home over Houston. The Heat's win saw them score 109 and get a little bit of good fortune as the usually high-flying Rockets shot only 40% for the game. That was a break. Even though Dallas is clearly inferior offensively compared to the Rockets, they should still shoot better. In each of its last four games, including the 99-98 upset of Chicago, the Mavs have shot between 46% and 48% from the floor.

This three-game win streak that Dallas is on is their longest of the season. They beat Phoenix at a neutral site, Minnesota at home (had just played T'wolves the week earlier) and then Chicago by a single point. While they still regularly see sub-200 pt totals, this is a really low number for Miami. There have been only two games since 12.10 for the Heat that the total has been below 200 pts. Both games went Over. Each of them took place here on South Beach. While the Under is 4-0 the L4 matchups between these two teams, I think it's time for things to go the other way as totals this low don't pop up on the board every day. 10* Over Mavericks/Heat

8* Under Lakers/Spurs (8:35 ET): Two teams at the opposite ends of the NBA spectrum here. San Antonio isn't all that far behind Golden State for the top spot in the Western Conference, trailing by just 2.5 games. Then you have the Lakers, who are near the bottom of the West w/ a 15-27 SU record. Pop's team figures to be in a somewhat ornery mood this evening as they're coming off a 109-107 home loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Since X-Mas, the Spurs have held five of seven opponents below 100 pts and not surprisingly, they've won all five times (lost the other two). The Lakers managed only 87 pts against a Portland team which stinks defensively Tuesday and while their defense is a concern, I expect this game to have less scoring than what the oddsmakers are anticipating. Take the Under.

The Spurs are just a hair behind Utah for the top spot in the league in defensive efficiency. Of course, they were #1 last year. They're allowing just 97.8 points per game this season and home games are averaging just barely above 200 PPG for them, total. So this is a bit of a high total for them. While Milwaukee (shot 52.4%) was able to come in and score 109 against them, the Spurs' previous two home games saw them allow only 82 and 85 points. The Under is 5-2 off a Spurs' loss this season.  As mentioned earlier, it was an ugly night for the Lakers offensively in Portland on Tuesday as they shot just 38.6% from the floor. They scored just 31 points in the second half.

The Over has cashed each of the L5 times these teams have met. That includes a 116-107 Spurs win in LA back in November. But tonight's O/U line is the highest one yet. San Antonio is getting LaMarcus Aldridge back tonight (missed Milwaukee game), but even so, I do not expect the team to have six different players finish up w/ double figure scoring like they did vs. the Bucks. The Spurs defense should certainly neutralize the Lakers offense and as far as the other end of the court goes, there's just no way SA will be as sharp shooting the basketball as they were in the earlier season meeting vs. the Lakers (56.4%). Time for an Under here. 8* Under Lakers/Spurs

10* Over Knicks/Sixers (7:05 ET): Philadelphia has long been one of the worst offensive teams in the league. In fact, they current check in at 30th (i.e. last) in efficiency as the ONLY team to be averaging less than one point per possession. However, they've been able to score 105 or more points three times during this four-game ATS win streak of theirs, which includes three straight up victories mind you, the latest coming at the expense of Brooklyn on Sunday. Already the Sixers have topped LY's win total! I think the recent offensive surge should continue here against a Knicks team that is just awful defensively. You would have to go all the way back to 12.22 to find the last time New York did NOT give up 100+ points in a game. However, I still don't trust Philly enough to take them in this spot. Therefore, we turn to the Over as I think the Knicks will be able to score plenty here as well. 

Of course, the Knicks' offense would probably be a little more effective if they knew where the hell Derrick Rose was. Rose went M.I.A. for the team's last game, a 110-96 home loss to the Pelicans. Seriously; Rose was a "no call, no show" for work that day as the team didn't even know where he was. Phil Jackson's Knicks everybody! Regardless, with Rose in the lineup the team had scored at least 103 points in each of its previous five games. By their standards, this is a low O/U line. The Over is 4-1 this season for them, in road games, if the O/U line is between 205 and 209.5. Defensively, the Knicks are not good, which I touched on earlier. To quantify, they are 26th in efficiency and give up 111.2 PPG on the road. They've allowed 100+ pts in 16 of the L17 games.

The Sixers are no stalwart defensively either; they give up 105.9 PPG. So w/ two bad defensive teams here, there's clearly a recipe for an Over. That's the way that three of the four meetings last year went. The Atlantic Division rivals have yet to meet this year, but both are clearly improved from dreadful 2015-16 campaigns. Note that Monday, their first sub-100 point performance of the new year, saw the Knicks not only w/o Rose but leading scorer Carmelo Anthony as well by game's end. Anthony was ejected in the 3Q for arguing w/ an official. A full compliment of players from start to finish should lead to more offensive production here. 10* Over Knicks/Sixers

10* Under Pistons/Kings (10:35 ET): All of a sudden, Detroit has turned into an Over team w/ six straight games finishing that way. That's quite the departure from how the team both started the season (21-12-1 Under in first 34 games) and still profiles. This had been one of only three teams in the league (Utah, Memphis) to neither score nor allow 100+ points per game. The recent streak has changed that (allow & score 100.3 PPG), but I feel we've reached a "tipping point" of sorts here in this matchup vs. the Sacramento Kings. We still think of the Kings as a high-scoring outfit, but the fact is their offensive numbers are down under HC Dave Joerger as is their pace of play (considerably). Take the Under here.

In terms of "true shooting" numbers, the Pistons are among the bottom five teams in the league. They play at an even slower pace than does Sacramento (26th) and fewer possessions naturally leads to less scoring. Despite all of the outcries from HC Stan Van Gundy regarding team defense, the Pistons actually still rank in the top 10 in efficiency at that end of the floor. It wasn't that long ago that they were in the top five! When looking at their most recent result - a 125-124 win at Portland Sunday night - beware of the fact that game went into double overtime. There was a total of 37 points scored in the extra 10 minutes, which is quite a lot. Portland is also among the worst defensive teams in the league.

Sacramento has dipped to the bottom third in pace of play this season and is actually averaging only 102.3 PPG. While this might seem like a low number for them, note they just played Golden State, who is #1 in offensive efficiency. So of course the total will be lower here.  It also appears as if the offensive burden that Boogie Cousins carries for this team has become too much. According to HC Joerger, Cousins is "exhausted" and it's showed w/ him going for only a combined 55 points the L3 games, all team losses. Look for this game to be lower-scoring than expected. 10* Under Pistons/Kings

10* Over Cavs/Suns (8:35 ET): To me, this shapes up exactly the same as my last Over play, which was Cleveland visiting Brooklyn. Only this time, the Cavaliers will have both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love back in the lineup as they face a team that is just as bad defensively. Thus, the play is even stronger! While the Suns allow "only" 111.3 points per game compared to the league-worst 114.3 PPG allowed by the Nets, the difference in efficiency is negligible. Sure, Phoenix has gone Under in five straight games, thanks to some uncharacteristically solid defense. But we shouldn't see any of that here. Furthermore, as I mentioned in the Cleveland-Brooklyn writeup from Friday, the Cavs' own defensive efficiency isn't that good. Take the Over.

Scoring has exploded in the NBA this year, resulting in some really high totals. But Cleveland is still 6-1 Over in road games when the O/U line is 210+ including the last game. Coming off B2B sub-100 pt games, they torched the Nets for 116 despite shooting only 43.2% from the floor. They should shoot better here against a Suns side permitting its opponents to shoot 46.5% for the year. Having both Love and Irving back will obviously help. Note that there's a chance that Kyle Korver (just acquired) could join the team here. With or without him, the Cavs will find success shooting the three as they are among the league-leaders in percentage and attempts. Defensively though, let's note Cleveland has allowed 100+ points in six of its past seven games.

Phoenix has been held below its season average of 105.6 PPG six straight times, even as they've pulled off rare B2B wins over Miami and Dallas. This is obviously a big step up in class for them, but scoring should rise. The Suns are a perfect 6-0 this season when playing w/ exactly two days rest. Overall, this is one of the top five Over teams in the league (despite five straight Unders), so recent results have been nothing more than a little "market correction" after a 23-9 Over start to the season. Again, after turning in four of its best defensive performances of the year over the L5 games, I would expect the team to regress at that end here. 10* Over Cavs/Suns

10* Over Cavs/Nets (7:35 ET): Cleveland has lost eight straight times when two of it's "Big Three" (that's LeBron, Irving and Love) don't suit up. Irving and Love were both M.I.A. in Wednesday's 106-94 home loss to the Bulls and listed as questionable for tonight. However, the assignment is far easier w/ a trip to Brooklyn to face the league-worst Nets. Even if it's only LeBron, he can lead his team to plenty of points against the league's 27th ranked team in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the Cavs' defensive efficiency isn't all that great either (14th). These teams have combined to go Under in five straight meetings, but the last one - a 119-99 Cleveland win on 12.23 - saw a higher total than this and still almost went Over despite woeful 16 of 65 shooting from three-point range (less than 25 percent!) from the two sides. Take the Over.

The Cavs have now failed to score 100 pts in B2B games. That had previously not happened all season. Granted, Irving and Love potentially being out again is going to have an effect, but Brooklyn is so bad defensively that it shouldn't matter too much. The Nets give up 114.2 points per game, which is comfortably the highest average in the league. The entire Cleveland team is battling some sort of illness going around (why Love is out), but help could arrive in the form of Kyle Korver, who was just acquired from the Hawks. Yes, there is a chance Korver could play here. Cleveland is one of the better three-point shooting teams in the league, but has been at 25 percent the L2 games. Korver would change that in a hurry, especially against a Brooklyn team allowing its opponents to score so much.

I also think the Nets could find offensive success in this game. The Cavs have given up at least 106 pts in five of their last six games and lack depth right now. Brooklyn has some size (Brook Lopez) and I'm not sure Cleveland will have an answer for him. I suspect that the Nets starters will perform better than they did in last night's game at Indiana, which was still a 121-109 final as scoring continues to explode in the NBA this season. But it still comes back to the Nets' defense, which has allowed 100+ pts in every game but one since the start of December. They've allowed 120+ in eight of the last 25 games. 10* Over Cavs/Nets

10* Under Jazz/Raptors (7:35 ET): Toronto has primarily been an Over team this season (22-12 in all games), but tonight they are matched up w/ a team that is both second in defensive efficiency and last in pace of play. That would be Utah, who also happens to be one of just three teams in the league to both score AND allow less than 100 points per game (Detroit & Memphis are the others). Thus, there are significant factors that make the Under in play here. Furthermore, the Raptors haven't played particularly well of late, most notably in a 28-point drubbing at the hands of San Antonio two nights ago. They've lost three of four overall and this is their first game back home after a long-road trip (always tricky). Take the Under here.

Right now, it's a little difficult to evaluate Utah. They're certainly better than most teams (currently ranked 6th in my own personal power rankings), but as is evident by a 1-9 SU/2-8 ATS record as an underdog, they're nowhere near ready to hang w/ the "big boys." (For the record, Toronto is one of the five teams I have above them). The Jazz had recently won four in a row, but those wins came against the Lakers, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Brooklyn, which is as weak a four-game stretch as you can have in this league. Then they went out and lost at Boston (as 5.5-pt dogs) Tuesday night. They gave up 115 points in that game, highly irregular, as for the year they're allowing only 95.1 PPG (league best!) on 43.2% shooting.

These teams did just meet, in Utah, right before X-Mas. Toronto won 104-98, shooting 53.1% for the game. Again, that was an unusually poor effort on the defensive end from the Jazz. Even though they're on the road this time, I expect better for this rematch. Certainly, they're more familiar w/ the Raptors now. Kyle Lowry went for 36 points in that first meeting, on 15 of 20 shooting. He won't duplicate that here. Of course, the sense of familiarity works both ways here. Utah continues to be short-handed w/ George Hill, Dante Exum and Alec Burks all out of the lineup (Exum could play tonight). Toronto will likely be missing Patrick Patterson here as they were Tuesday in San Antonio when they scored a season-low 82 points. 10* Under Jazz/Raptors

10* Under Kings/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Oddsmakers were a little late hanging a number for this matchup as Denver played last night at Golden State. Truth be told, I was hoping for an Over there (which happened), so that we could grab a few more value points here. To be clear, I'm talking about the total and not the side. Yes, Denver has been a big winner for Over bettors all season long. In fact, they are the top Over team in the league right now at 23-10-2. But the number for tonight's matchup w/ Sacramento strikes me as being peculiar as you'd think it would be a lot higher (last night's O/U line vs. the Dubs was 232.5). Thus, I expect the majority of bettors to again be on the Over tonight, but I'm going against the grain w/ an Under play.

This will be Sacramento's first game of 2017. They ended 2016 w/ a pair of losses, both times failing to score 100 points. They actually totaled only 89 in last week's matchup with Portland, which is really bad when you consider the fact that the Blazers rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. It was then a "hard right turn" for New Year's Eve as they faced the top team in the league in defensive efficiency, that being Memphis. While the Kings actually scored more in that game, they still lost by double digits. This team ranks only 18th in the league in offensive efficiency and their pace of play has come WAY down under HC Dave Joerger to the point they rank 25th in that department. On the road this season, they're averaging only 99.0 PPG.  

The last seven times these teams have met, the Over has cashed. So, it's about time that an Under comes through. This will be the first meeting of 2016-17, for the record, and it comes at a time when both sides are bit banged up. Rudy Gay, Aaron Afflalo and Ty Lawson are all hurt for the Kings. Meanwhile, two of the Nuggets' big men - Darrell Arthur and Kenneth Faried - missed last night's game w/ the Warriors. In the second game of a back to back, look for Denver to be a bit "sluggish" tonight. Without rest, they're only 1-5 straight up this season. Sacramento games are "only" averaging 206.1 PPG this year, so the number looks high. 10* Under Kings/Nuggets