10* Under Wizards/Nuggets (9:05 ET): After a brief stop back home, the Wizards are back out on the road Monday to start what will be a six-game trip that takes them to X-Mas. Saturday’s return home did not go well as the Wiz lost 123-98 to the Jazz. That was their fourth loss in the last five games and fifth in the last seven. Believe it or not, Washington was actually up 51-50 at the half. But their defensive effort over the final 24 minutes left a lot to be desired and it was the fifth Over in the last six games for the Wiz. 

Denver is on a 10-1 Over run. Their scoring has been way up of late as they’ve averaged 113.6 points the last five games. At the same time, the Nuggets have also allowed 111.4 PPG those last five contests. However, all of their games this month have been on the road. This will be Denver’s 1st home game since 11/26. What’s notable about this is that the Nuggets allow only 98.7 PPG. I also expect their recent shooting to “cool off” after such a long road trip. 

Denver only scores 103.5 PPG at home. So this O/U line is much higher than the combined average number of points scored here at the Pepsi Center this season, which is 202.2 per game. Washington only averages 102.7 PPG on the road. Their number of points allowed has gone up recently, but for the season the Wizards still are allowing only 107.4 PPG. Kyle Kuzma (COVID list) won’t play for Washington tonight while Denver is dealing with multiple absences. 10* Under Wizards/Nuggets

10* Under Pistons/Pelicans (8:05 ET): Two teams whose games have been higher scoring than usual of late collide in the Big Easy on Friday. Both the Pistons and Pelicans are off overtime losses, which at least partly explains some of the added scoring we’ve seen of late. Detroit went down at home to Washington on Wednesday, losing 119-116 on a buzzer beater. That was the Pistons’ 10th straight loss, a streak which goes back to 11/19. As for New Orleans, their OT loss on Wednesday was also at home, 120-114 to the Nuggets. I’m looking for this game not to be as high scoring though and will jump on the Under. 

Detroit shot 54.2% from three-point range against Washington (and still lost!). Do not expect them to come anywhere close to that percentage tonight. Not only are the Pistons shooting only 31% from behind the arc for the season, but they are 29th in overall scoring (99.8 PPG) and offensive efficiency (ahead of only OKC in both categories). Plus they are 30th (i.e. last) in Effective Field Goal Percentage. Over the last nine games, the Pistons have not scored more than 106 points in regulation. Four times they’ve been held below 100 points. 

New Orleans averages just 103.7 PPG for the year, but the L5 games have seen them score 111.8 PPG. Again, going to OT on Wednesday partially explains the increase in scoring. There was also a win over the Clippers where the Pelicans scored 123 points. But just like the Pistons, you can’t expect this level of scoring to continue. New Orleans is bottom five in both offensive efficiency and effective field goals percentage. It was a lot of turnovers on Wednesday (25) that led to them giving up 120 points. They won’t be that careless again, nor will Detroit shoot 51% overall like Denver did. Can’t see the Pelicans matching their own 52.2% shooting from the last game either and the Under is 4-0 the L4 times they’ve been home chalk. 10* Under Pistons/Pelicans

10* Over Bulls/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): Chicago has won and covered four straight, but tonight they will be without leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, who is in the league’s “health and safety protocols” due to COVID-19. DeRozan, the league’s fourth leading scorer at 26.4 PPG, is a significant loss to the Bulls. However, they did just score 109 points without him in a win over Denver on Monday. Tonight, I expect they’ll easily crack the 100-point barrier once again. With a low total, that means I’m going Over in this one. 

Cleveland, like Chicago, is another surprising team. The Cavs enter Wednesday with a 13-12 SU record and are 8th in the East. That may not sound all that impressive, but when you consider how moribund this franchise has been in the “non-LeBron years” the last decade-plus, it’s certainly an improvement. The Cavs had their own four-game win streak snapped on Sunday with a 109-108 loss to the Jazz. Then they went down to another of the league’s top teams, Milwaukee, 112-104 on Monday. That snapped a 7-game ATS win streak. 

The Bulls are a perfect 6-0 Over this season after holding their previous opponent to 100 points or less. That’s the situation they are in here, coming off the aforementioned win over Denver. Chicago is averaging 110.2 PPG on the road this year. While a big part of that is DeRozan, the team can still turn to the likes of Lonzo Ball, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, all of whom have turned in big games lately. For Cleveland, this is a rare instance of being favored (just 3rd time all season). Having scored 104+ points in eight consecutive games, they’ve been just fine offensively without Collin Sexton. I think this is a case where oddsmakers have set the O/U line far too low, based on a couple of absences. Both teams will be fine. 10* Over Bulls/Cavaliers

10* Over Bulls/Nets (7:35 ET): These are the two top teams in the Eastern Conference right now. With Brooklyn, that’s not a surprise as they came into the season as the consensus top team in the East (even with the status of Kyrie Irving). Chicago has been a surprise as they are 15-8 SU and just a 1.5 games behind the Nets. This is the best start by any Bulls team since 2015-16 and it includes an impressive 23-point win over the Nets (at home) last month. The Bulls come into tonight off B2B wins. 

Brooklyn played last night and was able to outlast the pesky Timberwolves 110-105. But they did not cover the 7.5-point spread. The game also stayed Under despite a combined 65 free throw attempts from the two teams. That high number of FTs was offset by poor three-point shooting, especially from the Nets, who were just 6 of 23 from behind the arc. I expect them to improve - dramatically - on that number here. The Over had been 5-1 in the Nets’ L6 games prior to last night with five straight seeing at least 220 total points scored. 

Chicago’s last two games have both been high-scoring as they beat the Hornets 133-119 and the Knicks 119-115. The Bulls have displayed very good three-point shooting so far, making 37% of their attempts from behind the arc. That percentage is even higher on the road. Looking at the Nets’ 3-pt defense, I just don’t think they can continue to hold teams to 30.9%. Brooklyn didn’t shoot well in the previous meeting with Chicago (39.5%) while the Bulls were only 29.0% from three. I think those percentages will be improved tonight. 10* Over Bulls/Nets

10* Under Thunder/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): While I did cash an Over ticket involving the Thunder last night, that required a 70-point fourth quarter with 41 points coming from the opposition. Losing two straight times to the Rockets (who have the worst record in the Western Conference) should tell you “all you need to know” about the current state of OKC, who has now lost seven in a row (five by seven points or less). It is highly unlikely that they will match last night’s 110 point effort here as that was the team’s highest scoring game in more than a month. 

Memphis had a seven-game Over run halted on Tuesday when they beat Toronto 98-91. Expect more low-scoring games to follow now that the Grizzlies are playing without leading scorer Ja Morant. The Grizz have not been anything close to “stout” at the defensive end (they allow the most points per possession in the league), but tonight they are facing the league’s second lowest scoring team (OKC averages only 99.0 PPG), so Under is going to be the call here. 

The Thunder’s paltry scoring average dips even further on the road, down to 95.2 PPG. But the one thing that they do well is holding teams to 43.9% shooting. They’ve even been a bit better defensively when on the road (42.5 FG% allowed), which is why the Under is 8-2 in Thunder away games this season. Last night, they held Houston under 30 points in each of the first three quarters before imploding in the fourth. I don’t see that happening again. Considering you’ve got the second-lowest scoring team in the league against a Morant-less Grizzlies, I just don’t see many points being scored in this one. 10* Under Thunder/Grizzlies

10* Over Rockets/Thunder (8:05 ET): You’ve got two bad teams here, meeting for the second time in three days and the fourth time this year. None of the previous three encounters have been particularly close. The home team has won all three times. It was the Rockets prevailing 102-89 on Monday, just 12 days after losing 101-89 in Oklahoma City. The teams also met in the second game of the season and that was the biggest blowout of all with the Rockets winning 124-91. In addition to every game being a blowout, all three previous meetings also stayed Under the total. In that regard, I look for a different story tonight. 

Houston has not won a road game all season. They are 0-11 SU away from home, though they have covered the number five times. But they enter Wednesday’s game not just off a win over OKC, but on a three-game SU win streak. Now that was preceded by a 15-game losing skid, so you shouldn’t get too excited. The 89 points they allowed to the Thunder on Monday was a season-low. But on the road, the Rockets are giving up 113.0 PPG. Don’t forget that two games ago, they were involved in a wild 146-143 final with Charlotte. Yes, the game went to OT. But there were still 270 combined points scored in regulation. On the road, don’t expect the same defensive effort we saw Monday. 

OKC has lost six in a row, though they had covered the spread in each of the five losses prior to going down in Houston 48 hours ago. The Thunder are obviously not a great team offensively, but you have to expect them to shoot better than the 35.6% we saw on Monday night. That game saw them go 7 for 43 (!) from three-point range, an absolutely abysmal number that will be improved upon - likely by a lot - tonight. Each of the previous three Houston-OKC encounters have seen both sides put up a ton of 3PA. I look for BOTH teams to shoot the ball better here than they did Monday (Houston was only at 41.7%). 10* Over Rockets/Thunder

10* Over Suns/Knicks (7:05 ET): If you thought the Suns were going to “regress” after LY’s surprising run to the NBA Finals, perhaps it’s time to reassess. Phoenix is the hottest team in the league right now, having won 14 in a row. They are 15-3 overall. The only team with a better record right now is Golden State, who is 16-2 SU. The Suns have won six in a row on the road, however the last two away games - a 115-111 win over San Antonio and 120-115 win over Cleveland - were both close against subpar opposition. That should give the Knicks some semblance of hope heading into tonight’s contest.

New York is off what it should consider a big win as they beat the Lakers 106-100 on Tuesday. Although LeBron James did not play for LA in that one, the Knicks will gladly take the win after they had lost four of their previous six games. But what I’m choosing to focus on here is the fact the last eight Knicks games have all stayed Under the total. That’s quite the streak. But it can’t last forever and I’d be really surprised if we don’t start to see Knicks’ games get a bit higher scoring. The L5 have seen them average only 101.0 PPG. That’s down from 107.2 for the season. They are allowing just 99.2 points the L5 games, down from 106.4 for the season. 

Phoenix can definitely score. They come in averaging 112.3 points per game (tied for #2 in the league) and their L4 games have all gone Over the total. The Suns have shot better than 50% in each of those last four games. So they really are the ideal opponent for this Knicks’ Under streak to come to an end. Both times these teams met last season, the end result was an Over. There were 228 and 233 total points scored in those two games.  The Over is 5-0 the previous five times the Knicks have been a home dog. 10* Over Suns/Knicks

10* Over Hornets/Wizards (7:05 ET): Both of these teams have been going Under quite a bit recently. That includes a head to head meeting with one another, back on the 17th, which was won by Charlotte 97-87. This recent rash of Unders is a little surprising, at least for the Hornets, who rank 29th (next to last) in the NBA in scoring defense, giving up 113.7 PPG. So I think that we’re “due” for an Over tonight. 

Not surprisingly, the total for tonight’s rematch is several points lower than where it was for last week’s meeting. It’s also on track to be the lowest O/U line for any Charlotte game this season. The previous low was 216.5 for a game vs. Indiana on Friday. Interestingly enough, that was the ONLY time in the Hornets’ last six games that the Over hit. The final score was 121-118. So I’m seeing some real value on this number.

Both teams are off to surprisingly good starts this season. Especially the Wizards, who are 7-1 SU at home where they are averaging 112.0 PPG. That’s a dramatic increase from how many points they are scoring on the road. In addition, you’ve got to figure they’ll shoot better than they did last week vs. Charlotte when they finished at just 36.7% from the field. The Wiz were just 8 of 42 from three-point range in that game! 10* Over Hornets/Wizards

10* Under Clippers/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): This will be the second meeting of the year between these teams. Back on October 23rd, the Grizzlies won a high-scoring contest, 120-114 as four-point road underdogs. That was the second game of the season for both teams. The Clippers found themselves at 1-4 SU through five games, but have turned it around in November (despite multiple injuries) by winning eight of their last nine. So Memphis should expect a tougher challenge in this second go-around. It should also be a much lower-scoring game. Take the Under. 

The sharp decline in scoring, league-wide, has been one of the big stories so far this NBA season. The Clippers are allowing only 102.5 PPG and Tuesday saw them hold San Antonio to just 92 in a comfortable win. With Kawhi Leonard out, Paul George has mostly carried the scoring burden at the offensive end. But he’s also gotten some help from unexpected contributors, such as Luke Kennard and Brandon Boston Jr on Monday. I wouldn’t expect a repeat effort from either of those two tonight. Also, key reserve Terrance Mann is likely still out due to an ankle injury. 

Memphis poured in a season-high 136 points Monday. But that was against lowly Houston. Six of the Grizzlies’ previous seven games had stayed Under the total. Monday was also only the second time in the last 11 games that the Grizzlies scored more than 108 points. They are more healthy than the Clippers are right now, but don’t expect Memphis to shoot as well as they did in the first meeting. The Under has hit the previous five times they have been an underdog. 10* Under Clippers/Grizzlies

10* Over Warriors/Hornets (7:05 ET): For weeks now, I’ve been saying that while the Warriors were clearly ascending back to the top of the NBA pecking order, they would not again reach the heights of their previous championship teams. Well, maybe we need to revisit that thought. Because I’ve got Golden State #1 in my power ratings right now. They’ve won seven straight games coming into Sunday and covered the spread in all seven. 

Charlotte is a team that will be looking to pull a third consecutive upset tonight. Their last two games have seen them defeat Memphis (as a 4.5 point dog) and New York (as a 2.5 point dog). Prior to those two upset wins, the Hornets did drop five in a row - both SU and ATS. They’re now back at .500, but if I was a betting man (and I am), I’d predict them to finish with a worse record than last year. 

These teams did meet earlier this month and the Warriors won 114-92. It was an awful shooting night for the Hornets as they made just 37.4% of their FG attempts, including only 10 of 36 from three-point range. Expect them to shoot better tonight as they are at home. The team’s scoring average jumps to 118.2 PPG here in Charlotte. As for Golden State, who has played only three road games so far, they should have no difficulty scoring on what is the league’s 30th ranked scoring defense (116.0 PPG allowed). As a reminder, there are only 30 teams in the league. 10* Over Warriors/Hornets

10* Under Hornets/Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers have won three in a row, the last two both coming against Minnesota, to square their record away at 4-4 SU for the season. Remember that they are without Kawhi Leonard (and others!), which really leaves the scoring burden on Paul George (27.9 PPG). Now it’s obviously helped that the team is allowing an average of just 98 PPG during its current win streak. The Clips actually had to rally back from down 20 against the T’wolves on Friday, so there was a 40-point swing that took place in that game! 

Charlotte is not doing a good job defensively so far. They are giving up the most points per game in the league (117.4) and just allowed Sacramento to hit a franchise-record 22 three-pointers on Friday. That game got ugly in a hurry and the Hornets ended up losing by 30, 140-110. I’m expecting a better effort on the defensive end here. I mean, how could it be any worse? It was the second time this season that the Hornets allowed 140 in a game. The other was an overtime loss to Boston. I have to mention that other than those two games where they allowed 140, the Hornets have not allowed more than 114 in any of the other L9 games. 

I’ll be taking the Under in this one. I just don’t think the Clippers, even with Reggie Jackson shooting well these last three games, have much scoring punch behind George. Charlotte is due to defend the three-point arc better here than they did on Friday. The Clippers don’t shoot the ball particularly well from three-point range, especially at home where they’re just 30%. But they do defend the three-point line well, keeping teams to just 28.5% here at the Staples Center. The Under is 6-2 in all Clippers games so far. 10* Under Hornets/Clippers

10* Over Hawks/Suns (10:05 ET): Two teams that made surprisingly deep playoff runs last summer will collide tonight in Phoenix. Atlanta made just its second EVER appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals, losing to eventual champion Milwaukee in six games. Of course, Phoenix’s season also came to an end at the hands of the Bucks, but that was in the NBA Finals (just the second time in their history that the Suns made it that far). At the start of 2021-22, it’s been a bit of a rocky start for both (needless to say what’s going on OFF the court in PHX). But I expect tonight’s game to have some fireworks.

The Hawks are just 4-5 SU and coming off an ugly 116-98 loss at home to Utah where they shot just 25% from three point range. I’m aware of the Hawks’ 0-5 ATS road record, but expect them to shoot the ball better tonight. Trae Young was not only just 8 for 20 overall against the Jazz, but he didn’t make a single three (0 for 4). Like a lot of teams right now, Atlanta is struggling to make shots (especially on the road), but I don’t expect that to continue. They are 25th in defensive efficiency and allowing opponents to shoot over 49% the L5 games.

Suns’ owner Robert Sarver is currently being investigated by the league for a variety of misconduct, so that’s going to be a distraction. But on the court, the team is 4-3 SU and has won three straight - all here at home. Those three wins have been by an average of 11 PPG, however take note of the fact they came against Cleveland, New Orleans and Houston. Thursday night saw the Suns score a season-high 123 points and they didn’t even shoot that great. The previous four Atlanta-Phoenix matchups have all gone Over with a minimum of 227 total points being scored. 10* Over Hawks/Suns

8* Over Celtics/Heat (8:05 ET): Reports indicate that there was an “emotional” players-only meeting in the Boston locker room ahead of last night’s 92-79 win over Orlando. The Celtics have certainly been an early season “disappointment” as they are still only 3-5 SU even after Wednesday’s victory. Marcus Smart went public in his criticism of teammates Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, leading to the closed door meeting. I guess it worked, at least for a night, but the team better be on the same page for Thursday’s game as they visit Miami to take on what has been a red hot Heat team. 

Miami has started the year 6-1 SU and outscored opponents by a league-high 16.7 points per game. Their only loss came in the second game of the season, 102-91 at Indiana. All six victories have been by double digits, the closest margin being 13 points! It’s tough to imagine them being able to play any better than they have thus far, especially at the defensive end where they are tops in the NBA in both points allowed and efficiency. They are one of just two teams to be holding their opponents below 100 PPG thus far. I do not see that continuing. 

But while I expect the Heat defense to regress a bit, look for their three-point shooting to pick up. In three home games, they’ve shot just under 31% from behind the arc. Considering they are at 36.7% from 3PT range for the season, I anticipate a good night from long range here. Miami is no Orlando, whom the Celtics were able to hold to 79 points last night on 32.1% shooting. Boston actually ranks 26th in the league in defensive efficiency so far. But they (meaning the Celtics) should also shoot better than they did last night. 8* Over Celtics/Heat

8* Over Hornets/Warriors (10:05 ET): Golden State has stayed Under in all of its last five games. My guess is that they could care less as they’ve ascended back to the top of the Western Conference, a place they were accustomed to before nose diving the L2 seasons. The Dubs have yet to be beaten in regulation this season as their only loss came in OT to Memphis, 104-101, last Thursday. (It just so happens. At 5-1, they are just a half-game back of Utah entering Wednesday for 1st place in the West. 

Charlotte started its season 3-0, but has since dropped three of five. They very nearly erased a big 4Q deficit against Cleveland at home on Monday, but still came up three points short in a 113-110 loss. The Hornets were down 17 with just seven minutes to go and it’s worth pointing out that they’ve trailed by double digits in all but one game this season. Turnovers were the problem vs. Cleveland, at least in the first half, They also didn’t shoot the ball particularly well through the first three quarters. 

The good news here (for the Hornets) is that they come in leading the NBA in 3-point FG% (41.1). The Warriors are no slouch in that department either as they are making 38.1% of their attempts from behind the arc (40.7 at home). So I’m anticipating a good old fashioned “shootout” tonight in San Francisco and for that Golden State Under streak to come to an end. Six of Charlotte’s eight games have gone Over. The Warriors, who have not played since Saturday, are 4-0 Over the L3 seasons when playing with three or more days rest. 8* Over Hornets/Warriors

10* Over Pacers/Nets (7:35 ET): All five Brooklyn games have stayed Under the total this year. That's certainly not what you'd expect from a team that led the NBA in scoring a season ago. I look for the trend to get snapped tonight when the Nets host Indiana. 

The L3 games have seen Brooklyn shoot just 43.7%, 42.6% and 38.8% from the field. The percentages from three-point range are obviously even lower, down around 28% overall during the three-game stretch. Again, this is simply not what you expect from this team. Kyrie Irving remains out, but with Kevin Durant and James Harden, the Nets should be scoring more. Harden has struggled as he continues to work his way back from the hamstring injury that he suffered in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. He’s averaging just 16.6 PPG, very “un-Harden like.” I think it’s only a matter of time before he and the Nets get on track offensively. How about tonight? They’ve yet to score more than 114 points in a game this season. Last year, they averaged 118.6 PPG. 

As for Indiana, they too have underperformed of late. At 1-4, they’re off to their worst start in six seasons. That includes an 0-3 record on the road after losing 118-100 to Toronto on Wednesday. After scoring 122 and 134 points in the first two games, the Pacers have averaged just 103.6 PPG the last three. They should easily top that number this evening and shoot better than either of Brooklyn’s last two opponents did. Domantas Sabonis, a 21.6 points per game scorer, attempted just four shots in Toronto. Look for a big bounce back game from him tonight. 10* Over Pacers/Nets

8* Over Pistons/Hawks (7:35 ET): Atlanta’s first two opponents combined to shoot just 37.4% overall and 28.2% from three. You’ve got to figure that won’t hold up. Also, they only scored 95 points themselves in a surprising loss to Cleveland on Saturday night. A return home should lead to noticeable uptick in scoring. In the first game, the Hawks scored 113 points and easily defeated the Dallas Mavericks. They are big favorites here over the Pistons and I expect this game to go well Over the total. 

Detroit has played two low-scoring games thus far, both against Chicago. Neither time were the Pistons able to break 90 points. That’s just sad. The first game vs. the Bulls saw them shoot 40% and score 88 points. A visit to the Windy City saw declines down to 38.6% shooting and 82 points. Through two games, the Pistons are a horrible 19.6% from three-point range. These numbers can only improve and I think they will tonight - substantially - as the Hawks were already set to regress defensively from the first two games.

With these teams combining to go 4-0 Under thus far, it’s no shock that the total is low. But it’s too low. Atlanta averaged 113.7 PPG at home last season. They were right at that number in the season opener vs. Dallas. If they were to again finish near that average (very reasonable assumption) then all we’d need is 100 points from the Pistons. Again, that sounds reasonable. Trae Young did not shoot well against Cleveland nor the last time he faced Detroit. That’s about to change. The Over is 10-1 the L11 meetings between these teams in Atlanta. 8* Over Pistons/Hawks

10* Under Pacers/Hornets (7:05 ET): Two Eastern Conference teams that I expect to end up fighting for play-in spots come playoff time are Indiana and Charlotte. That shouldn’t be considered a very “hot” take. After all, both these teams found themselves in the play-in round last year. Neither made it out with the Hornets losing to the Pacers 144-117 to end their season. Then Indiana could not get by Washington, losing 142-115, which ended their season. It should be a much lower-scoring game to start the season this year. Take the Under on Wednesday.

Indiana has finished between fourth and ninth place in the Eastern Conference each of the last six seasons. That’s a nice run of consistency, but they’ve never advanced past the first round of the playoffs during that time. The hope is that new HC Rick Carlisle can take them past mediocrity. He’s got some good pieces with Sabonis, Turner, Brogdon, LeVert and Warren forming a solid starting five. There’s not much depth though. What Carlisle needs to work on - and probably will - is the defense. The Pacers gave up 115.7 PPG, the same number they averaged themselves. That led to the highest Over percentage in the league. I expect more Unders in 2021-22. 

Compared to Indiana, Charlotte games were much lower-scoring last season. The Hornets only averaged 109.6 PPG, which put them in the bottom third of the league. Defensively, the key to their success is playing more zone than every other team. The zone clearly bothers opponents. It should bother Indiana, who will be without Warren and LeVert. But I worry about the Hornets offensively as their leading scorer last year was Terry Rozier. We saw what happened LY in the play-in game when the threes weren’t falling. The Under is 13-3 their L16 games as a home favorite. 10* Under Pacers/Hornets

10* Under Nets/Bucks (7:35 ET): The two top teams in the Eastern Conference, if not the entire league, square off on Opening Night as the reigning NBA Champion Bucks host the Nets. Entering this season, Brooklyn has the best odds of winning the NBA Finals. But they are also dealing with the issue of Kyrie Irving not being available until he gets vaccinated. They still have the luxury of Kevin Durant and James Harden being on the roster though. Irving and Harden both missing three games in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals had a lot to do with Milwaukee overcoming an 0-2 hole to win that series in seven games. 

That ECF was much lower-scoring than anticipated, given these were the two highest scoring teams in the league last season. Only one of the seven games went Over the total and that was Game 7, which went to OT. In fact, the Under is 7-1-1 the L9 meetings between these teams including a perfect 5-0 when they play here in Milwaukee. 

I’m going to say that they go Under again here in the season opener. Neither team figures to be in “peak offensive form” for the first game. Somewhat incredibly, the losing team did not even score 100 points in four of the seven games in LY’s ECF. It may not be THAT low-scoring this time around, but this is a high O/U for the first game and I just can’t see this one reaching it. 10* Under Nets/Bucks

10* Under Suns/Bucks (9:05 ET): The Bucks have valiantly fought back from an 0-2 series deficit to come within one win of their first NBA Championship since 1971. That ‘71 Finals victory happens to be the franchise’s lone NBA Championship. I’ve got to say that I’m happy to see them in this position as they were my call for both Games 4 & 5. Each time they battled back from a significant deficit. It was a nine-point 4Q deficit that they faced in Game 4. The deficit was much larger in Game 5 (16 pts), but that came early and a big 2Q resulted in them leading most of the way. Of course, that was my 10* Game of the Year. 

With the Bucks having come from behind to win each of the last two games, I’m a little skeptical of laying the points here. Something I said going into Game 5 was that it was pretty surprising Milwaukee won Game 4 considering they were outshot 51.3 to 40.2 percent. I didn’t think the Suns would have such a large edge in FG% again and that proved to be the case even though they actually shot better overall (55.2%) and were 13 of 19 from three-point range. But Milwaukee shot 57.5% overall and was 50% (14 of 28) from three-point range! 

I can’t possibly see either team matching those kinds of percentages here in Game 6. Thus, I’m taking the Under. This is the highest O/U line we’ve seen so far for this series, which does make sense coming off the highest scoring game of the series. But the teams absolutely will NOT combine to go 27 of 47 from behind the arc again. In Game 4, they were 14 of 52. And shooting a combined 56% overall from the field again is totally out of the question. Outside of Devin Booker, the rest of the Suns have scored just 140 points total in the L2 games. The number of PPG allowed by both teams in this postseason does not exceed 105.5. 10* Under Suns/Bucks

10* Under Suns/Bucks (8:05 ET): The first two games of this year’s NBA Finals both went Over the total as have all four meetings this season between the Suns and Bucks. But Phoenix probably isn’t going to shoot as well in Game 3 now that the series moves to Milwaukee. The Suns were 48.9% overall from the field in Game 2 and made 20 threes. They aren’t going to match this numbers tonight. It definitely felt like Game 2 “should have” stayed Under as there were “only” 200 points scored with 4:10 remaining. But plenty of late free throws helped “seal the deal.” Look for this to be a lower-scoring game. 

Milwaukee had been 5-0 Under this postseason when trailing in the series. They still are allowing just 105.2 PPG in the playoffs. They’ve played eight games at home and allowed less than 100 in regulation six times. Phoenix has seen two players get hurt in the first two games - Dario Saric and Torrey Craig - so their lack of depth could become a problem. Role players typically don’t do as well on the road, so Mikal Bridges isn’t going to match the 27 points he scored in Game 2 here. Again, the team’s three-point shooting should take a major “hit” compared to what we saw in Game 2. 

Considering we didn’t even know if he was going to play in this series, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been rather remarkable for the Bucks. He went for 42 in Game 2 after a 20-17 performance in Game 1. I definitely don’t see him duplicating the previous game’s performance. Phoenix has allowed only 102.4 PPG in the playoffs and is right on that exact number the L5 games. The Bucks have only scored 108 and 105. This figures to be the lowest-scoring game of the series so far as the Under is 4-1 the L5 times Phoenix has been a dog. 10* Under Suns/Bucks

10* Under Hawks/Bucks (8:35 ET): This has become an incredibly difficult game - and series - to handicap with the unknown statuses of Trae Young and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Young missed Game 4, but it turns out that the Hawks did not need him as they shot 50% from the field and rolled to a 110-88 win. Things took a rather dramatic turn in the 3Q when Antetokounmpo went down with a knee injury and the Bucks never recovered. His status is more in doubt for Game 5 than is Young’s, but there’s a chance neither even plays. That’s a lot of missing offensive production for two teams that have already gone Under in three straight games. 

I was dead wrong about the Hawks going into Game 4. The numbers showed that their offensive efficiency went way down without Young, but they wound up turning in just their fifth 110+ point game of the playoffs. Lou Williams stepped up big time, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance from him. Clint Capella is also questionable for tonight and Bogdan Bogdanovic is dealing with a knee injury. On the road again, I just don’t see how Atlanta can match its offensive performance from the last game - even if Young were to return. 

The Antetokounmpo injury seems to loom largest though as there’s no replacing him for Milwaukee. It would be up to Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, both of whom are known to “step it up” at home. There’s no doubt (in my mind) that the Bucks are going to score more tonight than they did in Game 4, but it would still take a pretty substantial increase for this game to go Over the total. The Under is 10-4 for the Bucks in all playoff games while it’s 11-5 for the Hawks. So the teams have combined to go Under 70% of the time including each of the last three games. How about one more?  10* Under Hawks/Bucks

10* Over Suns/Clippers (9:05 ET): Down 0-2 (again!), the Clippers are going to come out desperate here in Game 3 at home. Expect them to lean heavily on the three-point shot as they’ve already attempted 81 in the first two games and made over 40%. That percentage might sound high, but this was the #1 three-point shooting team in the regular season at over 41%. So they’re actually “right on par.” This is a team that averages 116.4 PPG at home. In the last four home games, all wins, they’ve averaged 126.75 PPG. So look for this one to go Over the total. 

Phoenix has also shot the ball well in the first two games. They finished at a blistering 55.1% in Game 1, which I did not think they would match in Game 2. They didn’t, but still shot 50% from the field. One area where they did struggle though was from behind the three-point arc. They made just 6 of 26 attempts. Devin Booker saw his point total cut in half from Game 1 as he finished with only 20 points in Game 2 (on 5 of 16 shooting). I would expect an increase in points from Booker tonight and for the Suns to shoot better from three-point range. 

Chris Paul is now listed as probable for tonight after missing the first two games. Regardless if he plays or not, Paul’s backup (Cameron Payne) is probably going to do well. He had 29 points and nine assists in Game 2. If Paul does play here, Payne is likely to have a big game playing against the Clipper second unit. If Paul doesn’t suit up, well, Payne has already proven he can step up. Prior to stealing Game 2, the Suns had scored 113 or more points in seven straight games. They are 25-12-1 Over L38 games and this one should go Over as well. 10* Over Suns/Clippers

10* Under Bucks/Nets (8:35 ET): The home team being 6-0 straight up in this series is what will get the “lion’s share” of attention heading into this Game 7 battle. But don’t discount what has been going on from an O/U perspective. The series has been far lower scoring than expected (remember these teams were 1-2 in scoring during the regular season) with five of the six games staying Under by double digits. The only Over was in Game 5 and that one barely got Over. The other games have stayed Under by 17, 27, 66 (a record), 25 and 17 points. I don’t think the O/U is low enough here. Take the Under.

This Game 7 being on the road does no favors for Milwaukee. Of their 29 losses this year, 19 have come on the road. They are 0-5 SU this year in Brooklyn, including 0-3 in this series. Those three losses have seen them average just over 100 PPG. Over the L5 games, they have averaged just 98.2 PPG. Khris Middleton really bailed the Bucks out with a 38-point effort in Game 6. But he has shot only 32.3% from the floor in the three games in Brooklyn. Middleton’s likely drop in scoring here is a real problem when you consider his teammates were a combined 2 of 25 from three-point range in the last game.

We all know about the Under trend with Game 7’s in the NBA Playoffs. Since 2002-03, the Under is 36-22 in all Game 7’s including 22-7 in Round 2 or later. With five of the previous games in this series staying Under by 17 or more points and three of them not even hitting 200, there’s only one way to play this Game 7. Compared to Game 6, Brooklyn will limit Milwaukee’s number of fast break points. I don’t think Kevin Durant and the Nets will “go off” though as they’ve averaged just 101.1 points the L5 games. James Harden has only 21 pts in the two games since he returned. Kyrie Irving will be missed. 10* Under Bucks/Nets

8* Over Jazz/Clippers (10:05 ET): Injuries have played a vital role in this series. Mike Conley has yet to suit up in the second round for Utah while Donovan Mitchell continues to deal with an ankle injury. Things are more serious for the Clippers, who have lost Serge Ibaka and Kawhi Leonard. But they were the ones to step up in Game 5 with a 119-111 upset (as 8-point underdogs) and one more win would mean they’re on to the Conference Finals, a place no Clippers team has even been before. Despite these key injuries, I still see Game 6 going Over the total. Every game in the series has seen at least 221 total points scored.

I learned my lesson taking the Under in the last game. It actually was still in play late in the 4th quarter despite the teams combining for 125 points in the first half and 175 through three quarters. But it ended up being the second highest scoring game of the series. Maybe the Clippers don’t shoot 51% again without Leonard, but this was the league’s top three-point shooting team in the regular season and they’ve been above 40% in each of the L3 games. They are now back at home where theoretically the role players should shoot better. Even without Leonard, I still see the Clips getting to 110 points.

Utah was the league’s 2nd best three-point shooting team in the regular season. They put up 54 attempts in Game 5 and made 20. While it was their most 3PA in any game in the series, they previously made 20 on just 39 attempts in Game 2. This is a team that has five scorers averaging at least 15 PPG. One of them (Conley) is out, but Mitchell is averaging over 30 PPG in the postseason and Bojan Bogdanovic made nine threes in the last game for 32 points. The Jazz average 115 PPG on the road and should get to that number here. They are 8-2 Over in all playoff games. 8* Over Jazz/Clippers

10* Under Clippers/Jazz (10:05 ET): Just as they did in Round 1, the Clippers have successfully erased a 0-2 series deficit. Although this time, they did so at home as opposed to on the road. Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles saw the Clippers largely dominate throughout as they’ve now outscored the Jazz over the course of the four games. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have each gone for 30+ points in the L2 games. But will they be able to do so again now that the series moves back to Salt Lake City? I don’t think so. Donovan Mitchell, who has six straight 30+ point games for Utah, is also due to “cool off.”

So I’m looking Under in Game 5. Note that I had the 1st half Over in Game 4, which cashed, but the full game total stayed Under - just barely (1.5 points). Three-point shooting was good - for both teams - in the games in Los Angeles. Both teams made over 40% of their threes with the Clippers making 46.5%. Those percentages should start to come down. We’re also coming off a game that had a series-high 64 free throws. The previous high was Game 1 with 50 FTs. So count on a reduction there for Game 5.

Utah is 6-2 Under this season immediately following a double digit loss. That includes Game 4. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 6-1 Under following a double digit win. Again, Game 4 included. The Clippers are allowing just 107.4 PPG in the playoffs, which is basically right in line with their regular season average. Utah is much more sound defensively at home where they allow only 105.4 PPG. I think the vast majority of signs point to this game being lower-scoring than the last one, which means Under. 10* Under Clippers/Jazz

8* Under Nets/Bucks (3:05 ET): All three games in this series have gone Under. I think it’s fair to call that “surprising,” given that these were the two highest scoring teams in the league during the regular season. Of course, that meant the oddsmakers were going to post high totals for this series. The O/U line closed 235.5 or higher for each of the three games so far. But the last one really stands out. Game 3 stayed Under by 66 points, a record for the last 30 years of NBA Playoff action. Will there be more scoring Sunday? Obviously. But I don’t think there will be 60+ more pts scored. Take the Under. 

Milwaukee will be looking to even the series here after winning Game 3 86-83. They just barely failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites, which was upsetting to me as I laid the points. It is interesting how the line has shifted for Game 4 with Milwaukee now an underdog at home. I think the concern for them has to be the fact that other than Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton, the rest of the team combined for 18 points and made just eight field goals in Game 3. Will that go up? Again, obviously. But the Bucks are also coming off B2B 86-point games. I just don’t see a “magic” return to the regular season average when so many players are shooting so poorly, especially from three-point range. 

Even Kevin Durant was only 11 of 28 from the floor in Game 3. Brooklyn is now 12-4 Under its L16 games against teams with winning records and all of them from here on out are going to fall into that situation. The most total points scored in any of the three games was 222 (Game 1) and that was with a blistering pace set in the first half. Again, I know the expectation is for a higher scoring game this afternoon, but making up the discrepancy between Game 3 and the O/U line here seems dicey. 8* Under Nets/Bucks

10* Over Suns/Nuggets (10:05 ET): Phoenix has looked dominant through two games of this series. They won by an average of 21 PPG and Chris Paul now looks totally fine after being hampered by a shoulder injury for much of the first round. Since falling behind the Lakers two games to one in the opening round, the Suns have won five in a row with the last four victories all coming by double digits. Right now, you have to consider them the favorite to advance to the Western Conference Finals. But the series is moving to Denver where the Nuggets averaged 115.1 PPG in the regular season. That’s well up from the 101.5 they averaged in the first two games. Take the Over. 

All five Suns’ starters have finished in double figures both games. Paul led the way in Game 2 with 17 points, 15 assists and zero turnovers. The team averaged 222.5 points in the first two games and is 31 for 72 from three-point range. They are 18-8 Over this season coming off a double digit win and 26-13 Over after scoring 115+ points in their previous game. While you might expect somewhat of a dropoff offensively on the road, Denver has given up 120.2 PPG in the playoffs. The Over is 6-2 in Nuggets’ playoff games as only one time have they allowed fewer than 115 points. 

Denver’s perceived poor effort in Game 2 led to HC Michael Malone blasting the team in the media. So expect an inspired effort as they face the potential for an 0-3 series hole. MVP Nikola Jokic has done his part, but is getting little in the way of help. At home, that should change. Will Barton is now back, having returned to the lineup in Game 2. All three of the Nuggets’ home playoff games have gone Over. They are 10-4 Over this season following a double digit loss. Though Game 2 stayed Under, scoring picked up a lot in the 2H and nearly sent the game Over. 10* Over Suns/Nuggets

10* Over Nuggets/Suns (9:35 ET): Early in the second half of Game 1, Phoenix looked to be in some trouble. They were down 10 and Chris Paul’s shoulder was seemingly an issue again. Then, out of nowhere, it wasn’t an issue any more. Paul’s shot making was the catalyst for a 34-9 Suns run that gave them a 122-105 win and cover (as six-point chalk) Monday night. I apologize to everyone that was with me on the Nuggets, but for 2.5 quarters they definitely looked like the right side. Nikola Jokic certainly picked a bad time to go cold, a day before winning the league’s MVP Award. I don’t think he’ll go 10 of 23 from the floor again in Game 2.

Four Suns scored 20 or more points in Game 1. Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges joined Paul in the mix. The team shot 54% overall and finished with a playoff-high 122 points. But the Suns defense has been the real story as they are allowing just 98.6 points per game in the playoffs and 42.2% shooting. That is something I can’t see continuing. They were a good defensive team in the regular season, but even still they gave up an average of 108.5 PPG. Facing two banged up opponents thus far in the postseason has been a bit of a break. That being said, don’t be surprised if the Suns allow more than 109 points for the first time (in the playoffs) in Game 2.

The Over is 23-10-1 in Phoenix’s last 34 games. Denver is now 7-1 Over in the playoffs. The last three times these teams have met, not surprisingly, the game has gone Over with 256, 232 and 227 total points scored. Denver is 21-8 Over following a SU loss, including 10-3 if it was by double digits. Like I said earlier, Jokic is very likely to shoot better tonight than he did in Game 1. The Nuggets average 115.4 PPG for the season. Look for their scoring to rise in Game 2 (they'll DEFINITELY attempt more than SIX free throws) while Phoenix likely comes close to matching their Game 1 output. 10* Over Nuggets/Suns

10* Under Bucks/Nets (7:35 ET): This seems like it will be the “marquee” series in the second round of the NBA Playoffs as you’ve got the team that finished first in the Eastern Conference each of the L2 seasons (Milwaukee) taking on this year’s favorite to win the NBA Finals (Brooklyn). Neither team finished first in the East this season, but the winner of this series would be favored over the top seeded Sixers. The expectation is obviously for a high-scoring Game 1, but I think the total is too high here. Take the Under.

The expectation for a high-scoring contest is not without merit here as these were the top two scoring offenses during the regular season. But even so, Brooklyn games “only” averaged 233.3 points per game while Milwaukee games were at 232.5 PPG. In the first round playoff series against Miami, the Bucks allowed an average of 98.0 PPG. While repeating that vs. the Nets will be next to impossible, the Bucks did hold the Heat below 40% shooting in the four-game sweep. Brooklyn is 2-0 Under this season when playing with three or more days rest.

It’s been even longer since Milwaukee last took the court, exactly one week to be specific, so do not be surprised if they come out a bit “rusty” for Game 1. In the last round, both teams turned in their lowest scoring performances in Game 1. The Bucks-Heat game went to overtime and still ended up just 109-107. Brooklyn had to come from behind to beat Boston 104-93, which was both its lowest scoring game and best defensive effort of that series. 10* Under Bucks/Nets

8* Under Suns/Lakers (10:35 ET): This has been a low-scoring series so far with four of the five games going Under and the one that went Over just barely crept past the total because of lots of free throws in the final two minutes. The five games have averaged just 199.2 points, yet the O/U lines have remained fairly consistent since Game 1. This is an elimination game for the Lakers, who were blown out in Game 5, 115-85. Game 2 (the lone Over of the series) is the only time in the series where the losing team scored 100 points. Gonna keep rolling with the Under, which I cashed in on back in Game 4. 

I’m 2 for 2 in this series, not only cashing the Under in Game 4 but the Lakers in Game 2. I do have to say that I’m surprised to see the Lakers down three games to two, especially considering they were seemingly in complete control following a 109-95 win in Game 3. But then Anthony Davis got hurt and nothing has been the same. In the six quarters they have been without Davis, the team has totaled only 127 points. That’s really bad. The most points the Lakers have scored in any game this series is 109. Three times they’ve been held below 100. 

Now one of the Suns’ key players (Chris Paul) is also injured, though he’s been playing through it. But Paul has obviously been ineffective, shooting just 40% in the series. The Lakers were the #1 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season and before Game 5, Phoenix had yet top 102 points in any game in the series. So with Davis questionable to play in Game 6, the way the best chance for the Lakers to stay alive is their defense. They are 15-5 Under after allowing 115+ points this season and 29-9 Under vs. teams that are .500 or better. 8* Under Suns/Lakers

10* Under Grizzlies/Jazz (9:35 ET): So the Over is 4-0 in this series. I had the Over in the last game and though it looked like a “surefire” winner after three quarters (score was 100-87 Utah), I had to end up “sweating things out” thanks to the Jazz going relatively cold in the fourth. Eventually though, the game did go Over as the Jazz prevailed 120-113 (total was 225.5) to take a 3-1 series lead. The West’s top seed has now taken the last three games after being upset here at home in Game 1. The oddsmakers keep moving up the O/U line and I think Game 5 is when we finally have an Under. 

The big difference in Game 4 was three-point shooting. Utah made 50% (17 of 34) while Memphis made 28.6% (10 of 35). Will we see those numbers even out a bit tonight? Probably. But I don’t see the Grizzlies improving that much being they’re on the road. They shot just below 35% from three-point range the first two games in Utah. This is not a particularly prolific three-point shooting team either. Of the 16 teams that made the playoffs, they have taken the fewest number of attempts from behind the arc. That’s right on par with the regular season when they were 25th (out of 30 teams) in # of three-point attempts.

Utah leads the league in 3PA this season, but they are not likely to hit 50% again as they did in Game 4. Jordan Clarkson went 4 of 9 from deep in the last game en route to 24 points. He’d previously gone 3 of 21 on 3PA in this series. These are two top six teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season. It’s time we had an Under in this series. 10* Under Grizzlies/Jazz

8* Under Wizards/Sixers (7:05 ET): I also like Game 5 to go Under the total. Yes, I know three of the first four games have gone Over the total. But Game 4 was the first time we didn’t see red-hot shooting from either side, even though three of the four quarters saw 59 or more total points scored. The Embiid injury is the big story. The 76ers shot just 41.7% in Game 4 compared to 58.6% in Game 3 and 55.7% in Game 2. While they figure to improve (from Game 4), with or without Embiid I don’t see them getting back to the level of Games 2 and 3. 

Washington has struggled with its three-point shooting all series. They did make 9 of 24, which is a reasonable percentage, in Game 4. But that was also after going 10 of 57 from behind the arc in the previous two games. Again, the Wizards’ struggles offensively shouldn’t be that surprising given Philly allowed the second fewest number of points per possession in the regular season. Russell Westbrook, hobbled by an ankle injury, has been an albatross when it comes to three-point shooting. He’s just 3 for 15 in the series. 

I also don’t expect the teams to combine for a somewhat preposterous 76 free throws in this game. That was the number in Game 4, a byproduct of Washington continually sending Ben Simmons to the line. In the previous three games, there were never more than 49 total free throws attempted. Even if the Wizards choose to keep sending Simmons to the line, I don’t see the same kind of productions from the charity stripe here. Washington made 33 FT’s in Game 4! That’s 13 more than they average per game for the season. 8* Under Wizards/Sixers

8* Over Jazz/Grizzlies (9:35 ET): All three games in this series have gone Over with the last two seeing 270 and 232 combined points. There’s really no reason to expect there won’t be a lot of scoring tonight in Game 4. The last game saw Memphis shoot just 43% overall from the field and 31.7% from three. Yet they still scored 111 points. That’s slightly below their season average. You have to expect a little better offense from the home team in Game 4, especially since the Over is 7-0 the L7 times they’ve been a playoff underdog. 

Utah has to feel good about itself seeing as they won Game 3 by 10 points despite taking 19 fewer shot attempts. They were dominated on the offensive glass, 16-7, but Memphis only ended up making three more shots than the Jazz did. It’s something to watch here as the Grizzlies should be more efficient if they are able to control the glass again. It should be noted that Memphis is shooting a solid 47% for the series. Utah gives up 110.1 PPG on the road, up from 105.1 PPG allowed at home. 

But regardless of the fact Memphis is likely to improve at the offensive end tonight, the Jazz are going to “get theirs” too. They’ve averaged 123.7 PPG in the three games and they’ve made 19 three pointers in each of the last two games. They are above 45% from behind the arc in their two wins. The Over is 6-0 in Utah’s last six games as a playoff favorite. The Over is also 7-1 the last eight meetings between these teams. Only two of those eight meetings saw less than 230 total points scored. 8* Over Jazz/Grizzlies

10* Under 76ers/Wizards (7:05 ET): It certainly appears to be “all over but the shouting” in this 76ers-Wizards series as top-seeded Philly looks to become the second team in the East (Milwaukee) to sweep their way into the second round. Truthfully, the Wizards didn’t stand much of a chance here with the 30th ranked (that’s last!) scoring defense in the NBA. But you would have hoped for a bit of a better effort in Game 3 on their home floor, especially since Russell Westbrook ended up playing.

Instead, what Washington got was a 132-103 loss in Game 3. For the second straight game, Philadelphia shot the lights out. After making 55.7% of their field goal attempts in Game 2, they were at 58.6% in Game 3. They even made 17 of 33 attempts from three-point range, which was way up from the previous two games. In fact, the Sixers made just 19 threes COMBINED in Games 1 & 2. While Washington’s defense may not give you much confidence, expect the Sixers’ shooting to fall off a bit here in Game 4. It’s only natural.

The Wizards’ shooting in the last two games has been less than desirable as they are just below 40% overall and a horrendous 10 of 57 from behind the three-point line. While there should be some expectation for improvement there, keep in mind that Philadelphia was #2 in the regular season in defensive efficiency and clearly is not having much difficulty stopping the Wiz in this series. They’ve allowed an average of just 105.3 PPG in the series and this is the highest O/U line yet. 10* Under 76ers/Wizards

8* Under Suns/Lakers (3:30 ET): The Lakers came into this series as the favorite, despite being the 7-seed, and have begun to assert themselves by winning the last two games. Keep in mind they’re not just the favorites to advance to the second round, they also have the shortest odds to win the Western Conference. Anthony Davis is listed as questionable to play in Game 4 Sunday (sprained knee), but has said there’s “no chance” he sits out. For Phoenix, Chris Paul is still dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out of practice Saturday. He’s clearly not himself and thus the Suns have really struggled offensively in the series. I think those struggles continue here on Sunday. Take the Under. 

If not for some questionable fouling down the stretch in Game 2, it is likely that the Suns would have been held below 100 points in all three games of the series. They are averaging just 98.7 points in the three games with Game 2’s 102 being the high-water mark. Game 2 is the only one of the three to go Over, and again there was some foolish fouling by the Lakers near that end of that one that allowed it to go Over. We’ve yet to see a game with more than 211 total points scored in this series. 

Given that the Lakers are #1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, the low-scoring should not be all that surprising. Then you have to throw in the fact they are facing an opponent whose PG is clearly injured. Paul is averaging only 6.7 PPG on 38.1% shooting in the three games so far and the Suns’ offensive efficiency plummets with him on the court. There’s also now too much pressure on Devin Booker to score. The Lakers are the only team in the league who have gone Under more than 60% of the time and the Under is 27-9 when they face a team that has a winning record. 8* Under Suns/Lakers

analysis soon

10* Under Nuggets/Blazers (4:05 ET): These teams have now played FOUR straight games, going back to the regular season finale. All four games have gone Over the total. Exceptional shooting - from one or both teams - has typically “ruled the day” every game. Game 3 of this first round series saw Denver make 20 of its 38 three-point attempts (52.6%) en route to a 120-115 victory. What was somewhat amazing about that win is that the Nuggets had 16 fewer shot attempts in the game. But the aforementioned 3-point shooting and a +14 edge in FT attempts (+11 in makes) gave the road team the victory and 2-1 series lead.

I missed on the Under in Game 3, but will come back with it here. I don’t think Denver is going to shoot THAT well again from three-point range. Portland isn’t very good defensively, but even they are allowing just 37.4% shooting from three-point range for the season. Denver shoots 37.8% for the year. Overall, the Nuggets have shot 50% in the three games. I don’t think that can be sustained, especially on the road. Austin Rivers probably isn’t scoring 21 points again either. 

Portland shot 48% from three-point range in the first two games before “cooling off” and going just 14 of 45 in Game 3. Damian Lillard is averaging 37.7 PPG In this series, but his three-point shooting in particular cooled off considerably in the last game. He didn’t get much help either. You have to believe we’re due for a “lower-scoring game” in this series. This is Denver’s first 4-game Over streak since mid-January. For Portland, it’s just the third time this year they’ve gone Over in four straight. They’ve never gone Over in five straight games and neither has Denver. 10* Under Nuggets/Blazers

10* Under Nuggets/Blazers (10:05 ET): These teams have now played each other THREE straight games, starting with the regular season finale. That finale was won by Portland, 132-116, allowing them to secure the 6-seed and face Denver in this first round series. The Nuggets chose not to play their starters for most of that finale, perhaps hoping to avoid the Blazers, but they got them here anyway due to the 4th seeded Clippers also losing on the last day of the regular season. As for the two games that matter more, the Nuggets and Blazers are all tied in this series after Denver won big (128-109) in Gm 2. 

All three of these games have gone Over the total. I took the Nuggets in Game 2 partly because I expected them to rectify the discrepancy in three-point shooting we saw back in Game 1. That wound up happening, although Portland was still better from downtown - 48.5% to 42.9%. The Blazers are 35 of 73 (47.9%) from behind the arc in the two games, which is going to be a difficult percentage to maintain even as the series shifts to their home court. Damian Lillard made an incredible EIGHT three-pointers in the 1H alone in Game 2, which was a playoff record for a half and thus certainly isn’t going to be repeated. 

Though they struggled from downtown in Game 1, Denver is above 50% overall shooting for the series. Again, that’s going to be really hard to maintain. As you’d expect, the Nuggets’ scoring average dips by a few points when they’re on the road. Fortunately for them, they also allow slightly less PPG on the road. When it comes to stopping Lillard, Denver may have found an answer with Aaron Gordon, who defended the All-Star well in the 2H of Monday’s game. Unfortunately, with Will Barton still listed as “questionable” (as of press time), the Nuggets may still be w/o their two primary ball-handlers. The Under is on a 12-4 run in Denver playoff games when the series is tied (as it is here). Portland is 6-0 Under off their previous six double digit losses. 10* Under Nuggets/Blazers

8* Under Blazers/Nuggets (10:05 ET): I also like the Under in Game 2 as neither team is likely to shoot as well as they did in Game 1, in particular Portland when it comes to three pointers. Something I failed to mention in the other writeup is that Denver attempted only eight free throws in Game 1 (made just four!). Expect more production there. That may sound like an odd way to begin a writeup on the Under, but while the Nuggets are likely to be more productive from the charity stripe in this game, their overall FG% is likely to fall. As I said in the other writeup, they are without primary ballhandlers Murray and Barton.

But the fortunate thing for Denver is that Portland isn’t going to be as hot from three-point range as they were in Game 1. The Blazers made 19 threes in Game 1 and shot 47.5% from behind the arc. Those numbers are well above their season averages. 

Another reason to like the Under is that Denver plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire NBA. They are bottom five in adjusted tempo. Only the Clippers, Heat and Knicks average a fewer number of possessions per game. 8* Under Blazers/Nuggets

10* Over Celtics/Nets (8:05 ET): The Nets are reportedly attracting plenty of action to win the NBA Finals. With the trio of Durant, Irving and Harden, it’s easy to see why they’d be so attractive to the public. But that trio has played just nine games together all season (only 202 total minutes) and I’m a little bit less sold on them championship prospects than others are. But there is no denying that - no matter who Brooklyn has on the court - they are likely to score lots of points. They finished second in scoring in the regular season with 118.6 points per game. I look for Game 1 vs. Boston to go Over the total. 

The Celtics didn’t shoot particularly well in the play-in win over Washington, but they still scored 118 points, led by Jayson Tatum’s 50. They made slightly less than 40% of their total field goal attempts and were 33% from three-point range. They did put up a ton of threes (45) and I expect a high volume again tonight. Overall, I think the team will shoot better than they did Tuesday night. But they certainly can’t count on Brooklyn going 3 for 21 from three-point range like the Wizards did. There is no doubt that Boston will give up more than 100 points here. 

The three regular season meetings between the teams all stayed Under. One of them did see 230 total points and Brooklyn scored 123 and 121 win the first two. It was a bad shooting night for both teams when they met last month.I am anticipating both teams scoring at least 115 tonight. The Over is 7-3 in Brooklyn’s L10 home games. One of the three Unders came when neither Durant nor Harden suited up. 10* Over Celtics/Nets

10* Over Grizzlies/Warriors (9:05 ET): That the Grizzlies were able to still win on Wednesday, despite it being a poor offensive night, is probably a good thing. They did jump out to a commanding 38-19 lead after one quarter. But from there, they scored just 62 points over the final three quarters with 28 of those coming in the fourth as they held on for the 100-96 victory. They shot just 7 of 22 from three-point range and were an ugly 54.2% from the FT line. I say it’s “probably a good thing” (that they shot poorly and still won) because it’s highly unlikely they’ll shoot that poorly again tonight vs. Golden State. 

At the same time, the Grizzlies can’t count on the opposition shooting 35.1% again like the Spurs did Wednesday. San Antonio made just eight three-pointers and was actually just 26 of 75 on two-point attempts, which works out to a horrendous 34.6%. I can’t see a Steph Curry-led team shooting that poorly, especially considering Curry went for 46 when these teams just met on Sunday. As a team, the Warriors shot almost 50% and made 15 three-pointers. Curry didn’t get much help in Wednesday’s loss to the Lakers, but LA is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency, so I wasn’t surprised about that. 

So look for BOTH teams to improve upon their respective shooting efforts from Wednesday night. All three regular season meetings between these teams did stay Under, but none featured less than 214 total points and Memphis shot poorly in two of the games. Sunday, they were 43.5% overall and 6 of 25 (24%) from 3-point range. They’ll easily best those numbers here. Memphis actually averages more PPG on the road (116.6) than at home (109.8) and Golden State averages far more at home (116.4) than on the road (110.7). So expect it to be a pretty-high scoring game Friday night. 10* Over Grizzlies/Warriors

10* Over Wizards/Celtics (9:05 ET): The winner of this play-in game automatically becomes the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference. Certainly, recent form has been quite different for the Wizards and Celtics. Washington stormed its way into the playoffs by winning 15 of its last 20 games and the five losses were all by four points or less, three of them by exactly one point. Meanwhile, Boston lost Jaylen Brown for the season and limped to the finish with losses in five of their last six games. On the whole, the Celtics definitely had a better regular season. But there’s no denying the Wiz are the “hotter” team entering this game.

What I anticipate Tuesday night is a high-scoring game. Washington plays at the fastest tempo in the entire league and despite the late season surge, they still allow the most points per game (118.5) in the league. You’d have to go back to April 10th to find the last time they didn’t score at least 115 themselves in a game. They’ve also allowed 120+ in seven of their last nine games. Before going Under in the final three regular season games, the Wizards had gone Over six straight times. Boston is also on a three-game Under streak, but was 8-1 Over the previous nine games. 

 All three regular season meetings between these teams did stay Under, which is surprising to me. Looking back, the Under is 5-0 the L5 meetings, even more surprising. But tonight should snap that streak as I anticipate both teams to shoot better than they did in any of those aforementioned matchups. Neither team has shot 50% or better in any of those L5 meetings with the three-point shooting generally being not good. That’s uncharacteristic for both sides. The Over is 6-0 in the L6 Boston home games. 10* Over Wizards/Celtics

10* Under Heat/Bucks (8:05 ET): When Miami beat Philadelphia 104-96 Thursday night, it snapped a 10-game Over streak. Considering that the Heat are only 25th in the league in scoring, it sure was strange to see them go on such a run of Overs. But of course the totals for the vast majority of those games were fairly low. Facing Milwaukee Saturday night, the Heat will see their highest O/U line in well over three months. With the exception of two games vs. Brooklyn in January, this will likely close as the highest O/U for any Miami game all season. 

Now a high total here shouldn’t be that surprising as Milwaukee is the league’s highest scoring team. But even for them, the amount of scoring in recent games has gotten a bit “out of hand.” The Bucks’ last five contests have averaged more than 260 PPG! There’s a bit of a “course correction” that’s due to take place here and with Giannis Antetokounmpo likely to see reduced minutes Saturday (he played only 35 minutes Thursday), this seems like the “right time” for it. The Bucks shot 57.4% against the defensively challenged Pacers in the last game. That won’t be repeated tonight against a Heat team that just held the #1 team in the East below triple digits. 

Even with the game vs. the Sixers on Thursday staying well Under the total, Miami’s last five contests have averaged WAY more points than is per usual for them. They’ve shot nearly 53% from the floor the L5 games, so they are also bound to “cool off” at the offensive end. These are two of the top 10 teams in the league in defensive efficiency and the Heat play at a bottom five tempo. 10* Under Heat/Bucks

10* Under Magic/Hawks (7:35 ET): Atlanta is now guaranteed a top six finish in the East after outlasting Washington in each of the last two games. A top six finish is nice as it allows the Hawks to avoid the play-in tournament. But they want to be 4th and have home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. While this has been an interesting season (to say the least), Atlanta is 23-11 SU on its home floor where it’s won nine in a row. So getting the home court advantage would be a big deal to them. The final two games (both at home) vs. Orlando and then Houston look to be pretty easy. 

Orlando is absolutely NOT going to the playoffs as they’ve been near the bottom of the Eastern Conference most of the season. They actually own the worst point differential in the East as they are getting outscored by 8.8 points per game this year. Coming into tonight, they’ve lost four in a row - all by double digits - and are now 21-48 SU this season. The Magic’s big problem is they just can’t score. They average only 104.1 PPG, second fewest in the league, and in those four straight DD losses they’ve never shot better than 41.8% from the field. Three of the four games have seen them score 102 pts or less. 

After coming back from a 13-point 4Q deficit last night, Atlanta may be a bit drained on the offensive end. The L5 games have seen them average 125.8 PPG, which is well above their season average. Keep in mind they just got done facing the league’s worst scoring defense (Wizards) B2B times. The Under is 8-3 in division games for Atlanta as they give up only 105.1 PPG and score only 109.4. It was 112-96 the last time these teams played and the total was much lower. 10* Under Magic/Hawks

10* Over Nets/Bulls (8:05 ET): Last time out, the Nets snapped a season-worst four game losing streak with a come from behind effort in Denver. They won 125-119 as 3.5-point chalk and were my 10* Game of the Week. In the analysis for that pick, I talked about how strange it was to see Brooklyn not only on a four-game SU losing streak, but also a 4-game Under run. Well, both of those streaks are over now as they look to solidify their status as a top two team in the East and possibly catch Philadelphia for home court advantage. 

Chicago’s last seven games have been a bit strange in that the losing team has been held below 100 points in every game. The Bulls were the losers in the first four of those seven games, but have since turned it around with a three-game win streak as they hope to keep their fleeting playoff hopes alive. They trail 10th place Washington by 2.5 games for the last spot in the “play-in” tournament with four games to go. The problem is the Bulls have yet to win more than three in a row this season. They are 0-3 SU/ATS when off three consecutive wins in 2020-21. 

I like this to turn into a really high-scoring game. Even without James Harden, we know what the Nets can do offensively. They are second in the league at 118.6 PPG. They shot a blistering 62.1% against Denver Saturday night. Chicago now has both leading scorer Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic back in the lineup and as a result the team scored 120+ in recent wins over Charlotte and Boston. They also shot 51.2% against Detroit Sunday. The Bulls are 7-0 Under the L7 games, but the opponent they are facing tonight is likely to end that streak. 10* Over Nets/Bulls

8* Under Heat/Celtics (7:35 ET): These teams just met Sunday here in Boston with the Heat emerging victorious in a wild 130-124 game. Miami jumped out to a huge 79-53 lead as they were shooting better than 65% from the field at that point. However, with a 40-point fourth quarter, the Celtics almost pulled off what would have been a second improbable comeback in the L10 days. (Remember they came back from 32 down to beat the Spurs 143-140 on April 30th. I don’t think this immediate rematch will turn out nearly as high scoring and thus Under is the call Tuesday night on TNT. 

The game Sunday saw great shooting from both sides. Miami finished the game at 57.3% overall, including 16 of 35 from behind the three-point line. Boston was at 54.2%. The teams also combined to go 40 of 47 from the FT line as the game went Over by more than 30 points. The Heat are now 9-0 Over their L9 games while the Celtics are 7-1 Over their last eight. But can this continue? The last five games have seen Miami score 121.8 PPG, which is well above their season average of 107.6. Same thing for Boston, who is averaging 123.4 PPG their last five contests as opposed to 112.9 for the year.

These teams faced off in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals and almost every game went Over. So I am definitely bucking not only recent history, but head to head history as well. However, this is likely to close as the highest O/U line for any Miami game in the last two months. It’s also much higher than any of the O/U lines from LY’s ECF. Boston doesn’t have Jaylen Brown anymore and Evan Fournier isn’t likely to continue his recent hot shooting. Sunday was the Heat’s second highest scoring game of the season. 8* Under Heat/Celtics

8* Under Pistons/76ers (7:05 ET): With five games left in their regular season, Philadelphia holds a three-game lead over both Milwaukee and Brooklyn in the chase for the Eastern Conference’s #1 seed. So it certainly looks like the road to the NBA Finals will go through the City of Brotherly Love. The team held on for a 109-107 win over short-handed New Orleans (no Zion) last night, thanks to Joel Embiid’s 37 points and 13 rebounds. While they did not cover the spread, it was the eighth straight win for Philly. 

Detroit is last in the Eastern Conference, some 26 games behind Philadelphia. I actually believe the Pistons are slightly better than their 20-47 SU record, or at least better than the two teams directly ahead of them: Cleveland and Orlando. However, down the stretch, it’s been pretty clear that the team is more interested in evaluating its young players as opposed to “winning now.” However they did shock Memphis on Thursday, 111-97 as nine-point underdogs, ending a four-game losing streak. 

Philadelphia is #2 in the league in defensive efficiency whereas Detroit is 26th in offensive efficiency, so you have to figure the Pistons won’t be scoring too many points this evening. All five of their starters were in double figures Thursday and they shot 53% overall as a team. A repeat of that is highly unlikely as two of the previous three games saw them fail to break 100 points. The Pistons are 19-8 Under coming off a non-conference game. The 76ers are on a 7-2 Under run vs. losing teams and have held five of their last seven opponents to 107 points or less. 8* Under Pistons/76ers

8* Over Grizzlies/Pistons (8:05 ET): Another game I expect to go Over Thursday night features two teams facing very different realities at the present time. Memphis, who won a wild 139-135 game last night in Minnesota, is trying to lock down a spot in the play-in round. Currently 8th in the West, things seem secure, though the lead over 11th place New Orleans is still only 3.5 games. Detroit is dead last in the Eastern Conference and has lost four in a row. They’ve got nothing to play for the rest of the way, although escaping the basement would be nice. Recent starting lineups show that the focus seems to be the future, and not the present, though. 

Memphis shot 53.6 percent against the Timberwolves last night and made 14 threes. At the same time, their defense was not very good as they allowed Minnesota to make 19 threes and shoot 52.1% overall. It was the third straight Grizzlies’ game to go Over the total and only five of their games in the L30 days have stayed Under. Last night was the eighth time this season they scored 130 or more and also the eighth time they allowed 130+. They gave up a 40-point quarter last night, but also had one of their own. Ja Morant had 37 points and 10 assists. 

Detroit seems to be tanking, although they did stay within the number vs. Charlotte on Tuesday. That was a low-scoring game (103-99 final) where they and the Hornets combined to make 17 of 63 three-point attempts. The Pistons have been holding out some of their regular starters in order to give some “youngsters” a try and the results aren’t always pretty. The three rookies combined to shoot 4 of 23 from the field on Tuesday. We should see improvement tonight. 8* Over Grizzlies/Pistons

8* Over Nets/Mavericks (7:35 ET): Brooklyn has lost three in a row for only the second time all year. The other three-game slide occurred back in early February and the team would go on to win (and cover) each of its next eight games. HC Steve Nash has to be hoping for something similar now that it’s crunch time in the regular season and the Nets no longer hold the tiebreaker against the Bucks after two close losses in Milwaukee this week. James Harden has missed 17 of the last 18 games and the team is just 10-8 SU in that stretch. But the Nets still have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They are only two games back of first place Philadelphia. Honestly, no one should be panicking in Brooklyn right now.

With wins in seven of their last nine games, the Mavs aren’t panicking either. But they still find themselves locked in their own tight three-way battle. It’s not for the top spot in the conference like Brooklyn’s is, but rather to avoid the play-in round. Right now, Dallas is tied for fifth with the Lakers, but they are only one-half game up on Portland. One of those three teams is going to be relegated to a play-in situation. The Mavs have been openly hostile to the notion of the play-in round and I do expect them to avoid it. What’s interesting about their 7-2 SU run is that both losses came to Sacramento. 

It’s not quite as rare as losing three in a row, but Brooklyn is also 3-0 Under its last three games. It’s only the third time this year they’ve gone Under in three or more consecutive games. Tuesday’s 124-118 loss to the Bucks BARELY stayed Under (total was 242.5). The number here is lower and they are facing a team that’s scored 125 or more in three of its last five games. The Mavs may not match the near 53% shooting from their last game, a 127-113 win over Miami, but they won’t have to as I expect the Nets to be pretty prolific tonight. 8* Over Nets/Mavericks

10* Under Kings/Thunder (8:05 ET): Two of the league’s bottom five teams meet tonight in OKC with nothing on the line other than pride. Sacramento is going to miss the playoffs for a 15th consecutive season (longest active streak in the NBA), although they do come into Tuesday having won four of six including the first two games of this four-game road trip. Oklahoma City has fallen into the abyss with just one win since the start of April and recently suffered the worst home defeat in NBA history. They are at the bottom of my power ratings. 

These teams have not met at all this season, but will play three times in the next eight days. If only the Kings were closer to playoff contention, this would be a great opportunity for them to end that long playoff drought. Give them credit for upsetting both the Lakers (w/ LeBron) and Mavericks though. Surprisingly, it was defense that was largely responsible for those upsets as they held those teams to 106 and 99 points respectively. I cashed the Under when they beat the Lakers.

A big reason why I’m taking the Under here is both teams are without their leading scorers. De’Aaron Fox continues to be in quarantine for Sacramento and making matters worse is that PG Tyrese Haliburton is now out as well after suffering a leg injury in the Dallas game. So don’t look for the Kings to match their 55% shooting from the last game. OKC losing 20 of its last 22 games coincides with the loss of their leading scorer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and they were already last in the league in offensive efficiency. The Thunder have failed to reach 100 points in three of the last six games. 10* Under Kings/Thunder

8* Under Raptors/Lakers (10:05 ET): LeBron James returned Friday, but that was not enough to turn the tide for the slumping Lakers as they lost to the Kings 110-106. That was LA’s fifth loss in six games and they are 0-6 ATS in that stretch. Remember that Anthony Davis is now back as well. The team has fallen into sixth place in the Western Conference standings and is only one game ahead of Portland. Wouldn’t it be something if the defending NBA Champions were relegated to the “play-in” round? 

The Raptors, who were NBA Champions two years ago, are simply just trying to get into the play-in round. Suffering their third straight defeat last night (106-102 at Utah) certainly didn’t help the cause as Toronto is now three games back of where they need to be to get into the postseason. This has been a very trying season for the league’s only Canadian franchise as they are 10-22 SU on the road and have played no “true” home games. Injuries have played a big part in the decline as well. That said, I actually think they’ve been better than their record as they have a positive scoring differential/net efficiency rating. 

LeBron is questionable for tonight, so that’s something to keep an eye on. The last time the last two NBA Champions met was about a month ago and James didn’t play in that game either. A horrendous shooting night (39.6% overall, 5 of 33 from 3pt range) cost the Raptors in a 110-101 loss. That game actually went Over (a really low total), but you’ll notice the number is a lot higher for the rematch. I think there’s value going Under here, which I did when the Lakers lost to the Kings on Friday. As mentioned in that writeup, the one good thing for LA is that they are still #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. 8* Under Raptors/Lakers

8* Under Kings/Lakers (10:35 ET): So playing the Kings Under the total in their last game turned out to be a horrendous mistake. They allowed the Jazz to shoot 64 percent from the floor and score 154 points, the franchise’s worst loss since 1991. Obviously, there’s going to be defensive improvement from them tonight against the Lakers. But will it be enough to allow this game to go Under the total? I think so as LA continues to struggle offensively without LeBron James. They are averaging just 104.2 points in the L5 games and Anthony Davis has been back for the last four. He’s averaged only 16.3 PPG on 39.1% shooting. 

Sacramento still doesn’t have its leading scorer, De’Aaron Fox, who is out due to COVID-19 protocol. The Kings have been held to 113 points or less in three straight games without Fox in the lineup. While the defense was being shredded Wednesday night, at the offensive end they were held to their fewest number of points in a game in almost three weeks. The Under is 10-4 in the Kings’ last 14 road games and 11-4 when they are off a SU loss. 

The Under is also 8-2 the last 10 times the Lakers have hosted the Kings. I know Sacramento is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, but I just don’t see the Lakers taking advantage tonight as they have shot below 44% from the field in three of the last five games. The one positive with James out is that the Lakers remain #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. 8* Under Kings/Lakers

10* Over Magic/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): It was a rude welcome home for Memphis on Wednesday. The Grizzlies fell 130-109 to Portland in their first game back at the FedEx Forum following a 4-3 road trip. Shooting just 42% for the second consecutive game was NOT what the doctor ordered, especially on the heels of the prior six games, five of which saw the Grizz score 120 or more points. They are now 3.5 games back of Dallas for sixth place in the West and tied with the Spurs for eighth. A win here is desperately needed. 

When in need of a win, playing Orlando always seems to be a favorable matchup. The Magic have run out tricks this season as they are second from the bottom in the Eastern Conference and have the second worst point differential in all of the league. They did win, 109-104 at Cleveland on Wednesday. But the Cavs are not a good team and it doesn’t seem reasonable to expect the Magic to hold another opponent to 40.2% shooting like they did to Cleveland. The previous three games saw Orlando allow each of its opponents to shoot 54% or better and six of the last nine opponents have been above 50%. 

So I think we can definitely count on Memphis scoring a lot of points tonight. The question then is can Orlando do the same? Seeing as how the Grizzlies have allowed 120 points in B2B games as well as four of their last six, I’ll answer that question in the affirmative. The Magic are 8-1 Over their last nine games, including 4-0 the last four. Since March 22nd, only seven Grizzlies’ games have stayed Under and only one of them had a total lower than 225. 10* Over Magic/Grizzlies

8* Under Jazz/Kings (10:05 ET): These teams played earlier this month and didn’t have much trouble going Over the total in what ended up being a 128-112 Utah win. You’ll notice the total is several points LOWER for this rematch and that’s because the Jazz simply aren’t the same team right now as they were in that first meeting. PG Donovan Mitchell is out and the team is coming off B2B losses to lowly Minnesota, one at home and one on the road. The last four Jazz games have all stayed Under the total. 

Sacramento’s April began with a long losing streak as they basically played their way out of playoff contention. Things have stabilized a bit over the past six games as they’ve gone 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS. Still, it feels like “too little, too late” for a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in over a decade and is 5.5 games out currently. The Kings are off a 113-106 win over Dallas on Tuesday, one of the better defensive efforts in some time. It was actually their fewest points allowed in a game since March 27 vs. Cleveland. 

I don’t think the Kings will match Monday’s 51.9% shooting. Not with De’Aaron Fox still sidelined. Fox is the team’s leading scorer at 25.2 points per game. Now, will Utah shoot better than it did against Minnesota on Monday? Probably. They did miss 41 three-point attempts in that game! But they will also still miss Mitchell, who led the way with 42 points in the first meeting with the Kings. The Jazz were also 30 of 35 from the FT line in that game, something that isn’t likely to happen again tonight. 8* Under Jazz/Kings

10* Under Grizzlies/Blazers (4:05 ET): Going back to last season’s “bubble,” the Grizzlies and Blazers have met three times and all three have gone Over the total. This season’s first meeting just took place on Friday and the teams combined for 258 points (130-128 Memphis win) after combining for 248 and 275 (OT) in LY’s bubble. But with a quick turnaround breeding a sense of familiarity here, I look for a much lower-scoring game on Sunday and will take the Under. A lot is on the line here. 

Portland has lost its grip on sixth place in the West, which is critical because the way things stand now, they’d have to deal with the “play-in” scenario. I fully expected the Mavs to pass them and now the question is will the Grizzlies do the same? Friday’s win pulled the Grizz within 1.5 games of the Blazers and they’ve got the better YTD point differential and net efficiency rating, indicative that a passing may take place. While Portland’s last three losses have been a total of four points, they’ve also taken a high number of blowouts this season.

These teams definitely appear to be trending in different directions as the Blazers have lost four in a row overall and the Grizzlies are 16-4 ATS their L20 games. But winning twice in three days at Portland will be hard. Memphis shot 53% Friday, shooting I don’t think they’ll be able to match here. Nor do I think Portland is going to shoot 40% from 3-point range again. The Blazers are 4-1 Under this season after allowing 130+ points the previous game. Memphis leads the NBA in 2-point field goals attempted AND made per game, so they’re not a 3-pt shooting team. Don’t expect them to match Friday’s 29 fast break points either. 10* Under Grizzlies/Blazers

10* Over Wizards/Thunder (8:05 ET): Washington has gotten hot at the right time as they’ve won six in a row to move into 10th place in the Eastern Conference. If they can hold onto that spot (or move up further), then they are in the play-in round for the playoffs. It’s the second longest active win streak in the NBA right now (Knicks) and what’s been curious is that it’s been somewhat fueled by the team’s play at the defensive end of the floor. The Wizards have given up only 109.4 PPG over the L5 games.

All five of those games stayed Under and we had the Under in the last one, a 118-114 win over Golden State. Now obviously a final score such as that is going to go Over most totals. But I saw a really high number there and took advantage. What’s interesting is that three of the five straight Unders would have gone Over tonight’s total as the Wiz are in OKC to face Russell Westbrook’s former team, the struggling Thunder, who have lost 12 in a row and are at the bottom of my own personal power rankings. 

Washington has averaged 120.5 PPG during its win streak and I see no reason why they shouldn’t again be hovering around that number tonight. They are probably likely to eclipse it as the Thunder have allowed an average of 122.0 PPG their last five contests. These teams just met Monday in D.C. with the Wizards winning 119-107. The rematch should be higher scoring based on the fact that OKC was just 23 of 50 on two-point attempts in that game and I’m not a believer in Washington sustaining its recent defensive “surge.” They are still giving up 118.0 PPG for the season, which is third most in the league. 10* Over Wizards/Thunder

10* Under Warriors/Wizards (7:05 ET): The two top scorers in the NBA will be on the same floor tonight as Steph Curry and the Warriors take on Bradley Beal and the Wizards. Curry has been absolutely on fire of late and was the talk of social media Monday night with a 49-point effort against the Sixers. He made 10 three-pointers as it was his 11th straight game with 30+ points and he’s averaged 43.8 PPG on the team’s current road trip. But still, as a team Golden State finished with only 107 points Monday night. You have to figure Curry won’t be going off like THAT again here, even if the Wizards are far from the league’s finest defensive outfit.

Washington comes into tonight on a five-game win streak (also 7-1 L8) as they too are trying to qualify for the postseason. They are in the midst of a “friendly” stretch of home games that has seen them recently defeat New Orleans, Detroit and Oklahoma City. The Wizards’ last four games have all stayed Under as their defense has improved at the right time. They’ve held those last four opponents to 115 pts or less, which may not sound all that impressive, but it is for this team. 

This total is really high. It’s almost identical to the O/U line from the last meeting, which was earlier this month, and saw Washington win 110-107 as a 4.5-point underdog. Curry hadn’t really “caught fire” yet, but still went for 32. The Wizards had four players score at least 19 in that win. I just don’t see the kind of scoring the oddsmakers are expecting to take place here. Only two of Golden State’s last 13 games would have gone Over this number while only three of the Wizards’ last 12 would have done the same. 10* Under Warriors/Wizards

10* Under Knicks/Mavericks (9:30 ET): The surprising Knicks have won four straight and are on an even longer ATS win streak of seven games. They are now in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, which is not something I saw coming at the start of the season. But their underlying metrics suggest there is nothing phony about this. Key to their success under HC Tom Thibodeau is the fact the Knicks are #1 in the NBA in points allowed as they are giving up only 104.3 per game. On average, their games are the lowest scoring in the entire league at 209.9 PPG. 

Dallas led the league in offensive efficiency a year ago, but not in 2020-21 as they are down to 10th in that category. On Wednesday night, the Mavs won a game that they badly needed. Luka Doncic capped a fourth quarter rally with a “lucky” last second shot to defeat Memphis 114-113. Unfortunately, that shot cost me a winning Under ticket. But all the Mavs care about is they are now within one game of Portland for sixth place in the Western Conference. I do believe they’ll pass the Blazers by season’s end and thus avoid the “play-in round” that they’ve been so critical of. 

While this is a low total, that shouldn’t be all that surprising with the Knicks involved. Also, Dallas has failed to score 100 points twice in its last five games. Over the past month, the most points allowed by the Knicks in regulation is 114. They’ve held eight opponents under 100 during that time and only four (out of 16) have been able to top 102. The Mavs’ scoring average decreases at home (down to 109.8 PPG) and the Under is 10-1 L11 home games. When these teams played two weeks ago, the final score was 99-86 (Dallas won). 10* Under Knicks/Mavericks

8* Under Mavericks/Grizzlies (9:35 ET): This is a pretty important game for these teams, both of which are looking to move up the Western Conference standings and avoid the play-in scenario for this year’s playoffs. Remember that a team has to finish 6th (or better) to avoid the play-in. I give both of these teams a good shot at moving past Portland (who currently occupies 6th place), Dallas moreso. But the Mavericks come into tonight as losers of two straight while Memphis is off a 101-90 win over Chicago. 

The Under is 7-1 in Dallas’ past eight games. They scored only 95 points in a home loss to Philadelphia on Monday where they shot only 42.2% from the field. They were just 9 of 36 from three-point range. This team’s offensive efficiency is way down compared to last season when they led the league in that department. Currently, they are 10th in offensive efficiency. On the bright side, they did defeat Memphis 102-92 in the season’s first meeting as they held the Grizzlies to 6 of 31 shooting from three-point range. 

Going back to last year, the Grizz have averaged just 94 points the L2 times they have faced the Mavs. Their defense had been poor in recent losses to the Knicks and Pacers, however one of those games (Knicks) did go to OT. The defense improved tremendously vs. Chicago Monday night as they allowed 41.9% shooting including 5 of 31 from three-point range. The Under is 33-11 in Memphis’ last 44 home games including 5-0 the L5 when they are the dog. 8* Under Mavericks/Grizzlies

10* Under Magic/Bulls (8:05 ET): Orlando has really sunk into the abyss as they’re on a six-game losing streak which has seen them get beat by double digits five times and by 20+ points three times. They have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. Obviously, there are major issues defensively as this six-game skid has seen them allow an average of 123.7 points per game. But for purposes of this play, be more focused on the fact that they’ve failed to crack 100 themselves three different times during the same stretch. That includes both of the last two games. 

Chicago is just trying to get into the playoffs. They currently occupy the last spot for the Play-In Tournament as they are in 10th place, 1.5 games ahead of a Toronto team that I happen to think is better than they are. Despite bolstering their rotation at the trade deadline, the Bulls have failed to “pick up the pace” and come into tonight’s game on a three-game losing streak. They’ve lost 9 of 12 overall. Now the majority of those losses have come on the road. This is the first of three straight winnable home games on the upcoming schedule, but the problem is they are only 10-16 SU at home this season. 

The Bulls are also coming off a loss in which they failed to score 100 points. They shot 5 of 31 from three-point range in a 101-90 setback at Memphis Monday night. While they figure to shoot better than that here, they only average 109.7 PPG at home. Of course, that might be enough as Orlando averages just 102.2 PPG on the road (29th in the league). These teams played earlier in the season and it was 118-92 in Orlando and that was with the Bulls (who won) shooting better than 50% (including 15 of 30 from 3-pt range). They won’t shoot that well here. 10* Under Magic/Bulls

8* Under Nuggets/Warriors (10:05 ET): Thanks to a disastrous fourth quarter (in which they scored only EIGHT points), the Nuggets saw their eight-game win streak come to an end Sunday at the hands of the Boston Celtics. Denver actually led by eight going into the 4th, but then things completely fell apart as Boston scored 40 of the game’s final 48 points. The Nuggets finished with a 36.4 FG% including 8 of 34 from three-point range as they played for the fourth straight time w/o PG Jamal Murray (who is listed as questionable for tonight). 

We know Golden State is going to be short-handed coming into this game as they are without Kelly Oubre Jr and James Wiseman, their third and fourth leading scorers. This puts even more pressure on Steph Curry, who has scored 32+ in each of the L6 games, but the Warriors are just 3-3 SU in that stretch. The Dubs are only 21st in offensive efficiency, a far cry from their “heyday,” so if they are to “get it done” here, it’ll have to be via the defensive end (they are 8th in efficiency there). 

Two short-handed teams, one playing in the second night of a back to back, seems like a recipe for an Under to me. Denver’s offensive efficiency drops noticeably without Murray in the lineup. They won’t have a quarter as bad as the fourth yesterday, but the Under is 6-1 in the Nuggets’ last seven road games. Golden State has little offensive firepower beyond Curry and probably won’t match the 53.8% shooting we saw from them when they defeated the inept Rockets on Saturday. 8* Under Nuggets/Warriors

8* Over Heat/Trail Blazers (10:05 ET): Portland’s game last night (w/ Detroit), a 118-103 win, was the fourth Under for the team in its last five games. But the Blazers remain a very suspect team defensively (29th in number of points per possession allowed) and here they are matched up with a Miami team that’s gone Over in each of its last four games. Granted, not all of those Heat totals were very high. But neither in this one, especially if you look at it from Portland’s perspective. Number is too low. Go Over tonight. 

Miami has won five of six to move into the middle of the playoff pack in the Eastern Conference. Right now they are in 6th place, just one-half game behind Charlotte and Atlanta, who are tied for fourth. So this is an important game. When they hosted Portland last month, the Heat lost by a score of 125-122. That game saw them shoot 56% from the field and still LOSE. The teams combined to go 36 of 80 from three-point range, which they probably won’t do again. But remember we don’t need the game to be nearly that high-scoring to still cash this Over ticket. 

Portland is 6th in the Western Conference, but at 10 games above .500 they have a much better record than the Heat. Enes Kanter set a record with 30 rebounds in last night’s win, a nice “step up” performance with Jusuf Nurkic sidelined (Nurkic is expected to play tonight). But maybe the real key was holding the Pistons to 9 of 26 shooting from behind the arc, a percentage the Heat should easily eclipse tonight. With the Over 12-5 when Portland is in the second night of a back to back, this number just looks too low. 8* Over Heat/Trail Blazers

10* Under Pelicans/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): We’ve seen some uncharacteristic results from both of these teams lately. Cleveland, who is very bad, actually pulled off B2B wins earlier this week, beating both San Antonio and Oklahoma City on the road. Most shocking of all is how they did. The team that is dead last in the league in points per game (103.9) put up 125 and 129 in those two victories. Of course, they then proceeded to return to their losing ways last night, falling here at home to Toronto by a score of 135-115.

So it’s now four straight Overs for the Cavs, a sharp departure from what we’d seen from them the previous five games, all of which went Under. During that five-game stretch, they never topped 101 points and averaged only 90.8 PPG. As I stated earlier, this is the lowest scoring team in the league. So after beating their season average in points scored in three straight games, expect them to have an “off-shooting night” Sunday when they host the Pelicans, who held their previous opponent to only 94 points. 

That kind of defense was a bit of a radical departure for New Orleans. After all, they’d just given up 139 (to Brooklyn) the game before that. But by holding the 76ers to 94 in a much-needed win, the Pelicans are now “sniffing” the play-in spots for the Western Conference playoffs. They’ve topped 111 just once in the last five games though and my guess is they’ll keep the Cavs in check tonight. Look for this to be a relatively low-scoring game at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. The Under is 11-5 this season for Cleveland when the total is 220 or higher. 10* Under Pelicans/Cavaliers

10* Over T’wolves/Celtics (7:35 ET): Boston has gone Under in each of its last seven games. However, a matchup with the team with the worst record in the NBA should result in them putting up a big number Friday. I believe it’s critical to note who the Celtics have faced recently. Their last game was against the Knicks, who have the league’s top scoring defense. Before that, it was the Sixers, who are #2 in defensive efficiency. So it’s not a surprise those games were low-scoring. This will be a much different story. 

Minnesota is off a 141-137 loss to Indiana, which is the exact opposite of “low-scoring.” It was not an overtime game either. Making matters more embarrassing for the T’wolves’ defensive effort is the fact the Pacers were short-handed, down FOUR starters including All-Star Domantas Sabonis. The Pacers’ bench scored 69 points in the game. They had 77 overall, a season-high, in the first half and opened up a 22-point lead. Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised seeing as the T’wolves allow the third most points per game in the league? 

The last three Celtics-T’wolves encounters have all gone Over. The most recent was over a year ago and Boston won 127-117. Though their last two games were both low-scoring efforts, the Celtics did score 118 and 116 when they faced Houston and Charlotte the two games prior. I expect them to be in that range, if not higher, tonight. Boston isn’t exactly great defensively either as they allow just over 110 PPG. The Over is 8-3 in Minnesota’s L11 road games. 10* Over T’wolves/Celtics

8* Under Lakers/Heat (7:35 ET): This rematch from last year’s NBA Finals certainly lacks the luster of the six-game series in October or even the meeting the teams had back in late February. That’s owed to the fact LeBron James is M.I.A. as is Anthony Davis for the Lakers. The defending champs are actually 4-5 SU since James got hurt, which isn’t bad, but they’ve fallen into fifth place in the Western Conference. Miami enters this game in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, but with a much worse straight up record than the Lakers (Heat are 26-25, Lakers 32-19) 

The Heat have actually given up more points than they have scored this season. Things had been trending in a positive direction though. At least before they lost to Memphis 124-112 as 6.5-point favorites Tuesday night. Before that loss, the Heat had won four straight games while allowing only 96.25 PPG. They let the Grizzlies shoot 54.8%, offsetting their own 53.7% shooting. I don’t think we’ll see those kinds of shooting percentages in tonight’s game. 

Yes, this total is quite low. But it ought to be given how the Lakers’ season has gone. Tuesday’s 110-101 win over Toronto was only the second LA game to go Over since LeBron got hurt. The Lakers are 33-17 Under in all games this season, including 17-2 when facing a team that has a winning record (note: Toronto has a losing record). The problem (for the Lakers) is the fact they have the second lowest offensive efficiency in the league without James. 8* Under Lakers/Heat

10* Under Pistons/Nuggets (9:05 ET): I had the Over in last night’s Pistons game, which was in Oklahoma City. They scored a shocking 132 points (new season-high), which was a sharp departure from their previous game when they lost by 44 at home to the Knicks. Now keep in mind that Oklahoma City is terrible. I don’t expect the Pistons to shoot 51.6% from the floor again when they face Denver tonight. In that loss to the Knicks, Detroit scored only 81 points (a season-low!).

The good news for the Pistons is that they’ve covered all three times they’ve been an underdog of at least 12.5 points this season. The bad news is they are 0-3 SU in those games. Denver is not a team you want to be facing right now as the Nuggets have won five in a row and moved past the depleted Lakers into fourth place in the Western Conference. During this five game win streak, the Nuggets have allowed an average of just 101.6 PPG. A head-scratching loss to Toronto, the Nuggets’ only defeat over the L7 games, is also the only time during that stretch they’ve surrendered more than 109 points to their opponents.

The fact that Denver plays at the second slowest pace in the league also helps our Under cause tonight. The Nuggets have shot better than 50% during the 5-game win streak, but that’s difficult to maintain. Detroit did hold OKC to 5 of 27 shooting from three-point range last night. 10* Under Pistons/Nuggets

10* Over Pistons/Thunder (7:05 ET): Two teams coming off 40+ point losses on Saturday. OKC took its worst loss in franchise history (133-85) at the hands of Portland while Detroit suffered its worst loss in 27 years (125-81) and that was at home to the Knicks. There’s nothing positive I can say about either team right now and when it’s “bad vs. bad,” typically you don’t see a lot of defense being played. On the bright side, both teams are definitely going to score more points tonight than they did on Saturday. Take the Over.

The Thunder have lost five of six and their two losses to open April were by a combined 85 points. Not only did they just let Portland score 133, but Phoenix had just torched them for 140 (on 60.0% shooting) the night before. Three of the last four games have seen OKC surrender at least 127 points. While I can’t guarantee the defense will be THAT bad again tonight, I can say with virtual certainty that the Thunder should see a dramatic increase in their own scoring, compared to Saturday. They are averaging 107.1 PPG at home this season. 

Detroit has lost six of eight and remains in last place in the Eastern Conference. Losing by 44 at home is obviously inexcusable, but I will point out the Knicks do lead the league in scoring defense. OKC is at the opposite end of spectrum. The last three times the Pistons have been held below 100 points, they’ve come back to score 116, 111 and 118 in their next game. I see a similar number for them tonight. This number is lower than the average number of total points per game for both teams this season. 10* Over Pistons/Thunder

10* Under Lakers/Clippers (3:30 ET): We all know about the Lakers’ current plight. But playing without both LeBron James and Anthony Davis, things actually haven’t been THAT bad as the team’s record is 3-5 SU since the James ankle injury. They did win 114-94 in Sacramento Friday night. It’s actually the Clippers that come in off B2B losses (one to Orlando!) and in both games they were held below 100 points. I look for this Sunday matinee to be lower-scoring than expected and thus Under is the call here. 

The Clippers can be an absolutely maddening team. Before the B2B losses, both of which were here at home, they’d won six in a row. Defense hasn’t really been a problem for them. Over the L10 games they’ve held every opponent to 112 points or less, including 105 or less eight times. But the Clips shot 41% against both the Magic & Nuggets and that’s a big reason why they lost those two games. Rajon Rondo is set to debut this afternoon, but I don’t think that will be much of a boon offensively. 

The Clippers never led against Denver Thursday night, losing 101-94. They let the Nuggets shoot 52% from three-point range, something I don’t think will happen here with the Lakers. The Lakers haven’t shot better than 48% (overall) in any game since James got hurt. Six times they’ve been held below 44%. But, like the Clippers, their play at the defensive end has been admirable. The Lakers are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and even without James & Davis, they’ve held three of their last four opponents to 94 points or less. Eight of their last nine games have gone Under, including five straight. The Under is 16-2 this season when the Lakers face a team with a winning record. 10* Under Lakers/Clippers

10* Under Bucks/Kings (10:05 ET): Both teams are in the second night of a back to back, but that’s where the similarities end. Milwaukee was a 127-109 winner in Portland last night while Sacramento lost 115-94 here at home to the Lakers. For the Bucks, last night was their second straight win after suffering three straight losses. For the Kings, last night was a second straight loss after a five-game win streak. 

The Bucks have shot well each of the last two games. They were 53.2% from the field against the Lakers on Wednesday, then 54.4% against the Blazers last night. A third straight game with that high of a field goal percentage seems unlikely, even though they are facing the Kings, who are not good defensively. Giannis Antetokounmpo was 18 for 18 on two-point attempts last night and scored 47 points. No way he repeats that performance. I do think the Bucks can maintain their recent defensive efforts though. They held the Lakers to a 40.2 FG% and Portland to 36.4. 

Sacramento has shot 42.4% each of the L2 games. Their two best players - De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield - combined to go 1 for 13 from three-point range last night as the team was held under 100 points for just the second time this season. While you can argue a bit of an offensive bounce back is in order, this O/U line is really high and these teams are “due” for an Under after all of their 16 meetings have gone Over! The Bucks are 5-1 Under playing in the second night of a back to back as well.  10* Under Bucks/Kings

10* Over Warriors/Heat (8:05 ET): Coming out of the All-Star Break, Miami was as hot as any team in the league. They won their final seven games in February and a dominating performance against Cleveland on March 16th (113-98) was their 12th win in 13 games. But then they went into a tailspin, losing six in a row and failing to cover the spread in all six games. It should be noted four of those six losses were by four points or less. They’ve seemingly now “righted the ship” by winning two straight, both in low-scoring fashion, including 92-87 last night at Indiana which was my 10* Game of the Week. 

Tonight the Heat return home to face Golden State. The Warriors thankfully have Steph Curry back in their lineup and he led the way with 32 points in Monday’s 116-102 win over Chicago. Curry had missed the team’s previous five games and they’d lost four in a row without him. The Dubs currently sit ninth in the Western Conference standings with a two-game gap between them and 8th place. Realistically, it’s looking like they can finish no higher than 7th. In the weaker East, Miami can finish as high as 4th, even though they have a very similar record (to Golden State). 

Miami has been held to 85 pts or less more than anybody this season and is coming off B2B sub-100 point games. But I believe they rediscover their offense tonight. Victor Oladipo is set to debut and that will help. Not once has the Heat had a three-game stretch where they failed to top 105 points this season. The Over is 39-18-1 the L58 home games vs. a team with a sub-.400 win percentage on the road. Golden State’s road record is 9-15 SU/ATS. The Warriors average 112.7 PPG for the season and when these teams met in late February, the final score was 120-112 (GS won). That was right before Miami went on to win 12 of its next 13. 10* Over Warriors/Heat

10* Over Hawks/Suns (10:05 ET): These have been two of my favorite teams to watch this season, so I’m pretty excited about the matchup. Atlanta is 6th in the East with a .500 SU record, but I look for them to finish higher than their current standing by season’s end. Right now, they are in the middle of an eight-game road trip. You may recall that I had the Over in their last game, which cashed and ended up being a 126-102 loss in Denver. That dropped them to 2-3 on the trip, but they easily could have won the other two games they lost. 

Phoenix is a surprising second in the West, ahead of both the Clippers and Lakers. They are 3.5 games behind first place Utah after winning two straight in low-scoring fashion. Wins over Toronto (104-100) and Charlotte (101-97) made it a successful trip of their own out East (won three of four). The game vs. Charlotte on Sunday afternoon was really low-scoring when you consider it went to overtime. At the end of regulation, things were knotted at 90 apiece. But I’ll chalk that up to the usual “Sunday afternoon hangover” so many teams seem to experience in those early games. 

The Suns shot only 35.4% against the Hornets on Sunday and I look for them to easily improve upon that number tonight. Atlanta has let its last two opponents shoot north of 50%. For the year, Phoenix averages 115.3 PPG on 49.2% shooting at home. They are #8 in offensive efficiency. Atlanta is 13-3 Over following a DD loss and their L3 games with a total south of 232.5 have all gone Over. 10* Over Hawks/Suns

10* Under Kings/Spurs (8:35 ET): I chose the Spurs on Saturday and they rolled to a 120-104 win against the new-look Bulls. That snapped a four-game losing skid for Greg Popovich’s team, who is now 7th in the Western Conference with a 23-20 SU record. Tonight they host a Sacramento team that is on a surprising four-game win streak (matches a season-high). It should be pointed out here that the last time the Kings won four in a row, they proceeded to lose their next nine games (also went 0-9 ATS).

This particular four-game win streak has seen the Kings beat lowly Cleveland twice and also wounded Golden State. So let’s not go making playoff reservations just yet, although the Kings are now just one game back of the last play-in spot in the Western Conference. Surprisingly, it has been an improvement on the defensive end that has spurred on Sacramento recently. They’ve allowed 108 points or less in three of the last four games. While two of those were against Cleveland, the other time was vs. Atlanta.

But I like this game to go Under primarily because I don’t see the Kings matching their red-hot shooting from the last two games. They connected at a ridiculous 59.6% clip against Golden State last Thursday, then were over 50% against vs. Cleveland on Saturday. San Antonio, save for one bad game vs. the Clippers, has been pretty solid defensively as of late. They’ve held six of the last eight opponents to 110 points or less and the Under is 10-1 the L11 times they’ve hosted a team with a losing road record. Sacramento, who is on a 7-0 Under run when playing with exactly one day of rest, is 9-13 SU on the road. 10* Under Kings/Spurs

10* Over Hawks/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Two teams looking to move up the standings in their respective conferences meet Sunday in what should be a good one. Atlanta is 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS since making a coaching change at the beginning of the month and for my money is the fourth best team in the East. Denver has won 10 of its last 13 games (8-5 ATS) to move closer to the injury-riddled Lakers for fourth place in the West. Both sides are coming off wins in their last time out. 

Atlanta was a 124-108 winner at Golden State. That was - by far - their highest scoring effort so far on this current road trip, which is now half over. When all is said and done, it will be an eight-game trip. The first four games were all played in California and saw the Hawks go 2-2 SU. They probably feel that record should be better as they blew a huge lead and lost to the Clippers, then fell by two at Sacramento. I do not see them matching their 54.8% shooting we saw vs. Golden State, but the number of PPG allowed in the L5 games (104.8) is likely to start going up as well. 

When these teams met in Atlanta last month, it was a 123-115 Hawks win where the Over cashed pretty easily. The total is several points LOWER for the rematch, which seems odd. Denver has scored at least 110 points in six of its last seven games and is averaging 116.2 at home for the year. The Over is 27-18 in all Nuggets’ games this season. They attempted only seven free throws in the win over New Orleans on Friday and still scored 113 points. 10* Over Hawks/Nuggets

10* Under Blazers/Magic (8:05 ET): Portland was a 125-122 winner last night in Miami, snapping a two-game losing skid. They are now tied for 5th in the Western Conference, though they’ve been outscored on the year, which gives them a significantly worse point differential than the top five. Really, it’s quite head-scratching how this team is currently eight games above .500. They aren’t very sound defensively, two of their top three players missed significant time and they’ve suffered the most 20+ point losses in the league. But here we are. 

Orlando is near the bottom of the Eastern Conference and considering their activity at yesterday’s trade deadline, they won’t be moving up anytime soon. They traded three of their top players away and that’s why they are such big underdogs tonight. We likely won’t be seeing any repeat of the Magic’s last performance, a 112-111 win here at home over Phoenix as 9.5-point dogs. Without Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, this team will struggle to score. Those are three double digit scorers and they accounted for more than 50% of the team’s points against the Suns. 

Portland could get Jusuf Nurkic back tonight. CJ McCollum has already returned. They traded for Norman Powell at the deadline. But what we won’t see tonight is a repeat of last night’s three-point shooting display where the Blazers made 20 attempts from behind the arc. That’s the big key here. When these teams met last month in Portland, the final score was 106-97 and that was with the Blazers making 18 3PA. Orlando had failed to reach 100 in five of its previous six games before beating the Suns. They are 29th overall in scoring. 10* Under Blazers/Magic

10* Under Hornets/Rockets (8:05 ET): These are two teams that have both fallen on “hard times” recently. Charlotte just lost presumed Rookie of the Year LaMelo Ball (likely for the remainder of the season), which is a massive blow to a team that had been overachieving. Houston had just lost 20 in a row before beating Toronto 117-99 on Monday. Victor Oladipo is likely to be moved in the coming days as the Rockets have no chance of making the playoffs and are heading for a rebuild, post-James Harden. I expect this to be a relatively low-scoring game on Wednesday, even lower-scoring than the 119-94 game they played last month. 

Charlotte won that game, as a 1.5-point home dog, back on February 8th. After a high-scoring first half (64-60), things slowed down rather dramatically in the second. Houston did not shoot well (40.7%) overall while the Hornets did, particularly from three-point range (19 of 41). Ball made a career-high seven threes in that game (finished with 24-7-10), but he’s obviously not going to do that again tonight. Yes, the Hornets did win their first game without Ball, beating San Antonio Monday night. But they did so in 100-97 fashion. 

Charlotte is 6-1 Under its L7 games and has failed to top 105 points in any of the last four. Keep in mind all but one of those games were WITH Ball in the lineup. Both teams won on Monday because of their respective efforts at the defensive end (held opponents under 100 pts) and they know that’s the path to victory moving forward. Houston is only averaging 104.6 PPG at home where the Under is now 15-5 for the season. The Under is also 5-1 this season for the Rockets when they are coming off a DD win. I just don’t think either of these teams are very good offensively right now. 10* Under Hornets/Rockets

10* Over Wizards/Nets (7:05 ET): I don’t think you can find a matchup more likely to produce a ton of points than this one right here. Now obviously, that means the total is going to be high. But Brooklyn leads the league in scoring at 120.4 points per game. Washington gives up the most points at 120.2 PPG. So you have to figure the Nets will score a ton tonight. The Wizards should follow suit as they have hit at least 119 in each of their last four contests. Take the Over. 

The Nets are 14-2 SU their L16 games, but coming off a shocking 121-113 loss to Orlando, a game where they came in as 11-point favorites. While they finished below their season average in PPG, the main culprit for the defeat was the fact they let Orlando sink 21 three-pointers. It was also the second straight game a Brooklyn opponent shot 51.2% from the field. I won’t be surprised to see the defensive issues persist tonight, but there is a reason this team has been so successful and that’s the offensive end of the floor. I expect James Harden will have a bounce back game after struggling vs. the Magic (just 4 of 15 shooting). 

Washington has given up at least 120 points in six straight games. Brooklyn’s last three games have all gone Over. So did both previous meetings this year vs. the Wizards and surprisingly enough, both were Washington victories. The second was an insane 149-146 final and there was no overtime. The first was a 123-122 final. 10* Over Wizards/Nets

10* Over T’Wolves/Suns (10:05 ET): We all remember how the entire sports world was put on lockdown a little over a year ago. Since resuming, the Phoenix Suns have been one of the best teams in the entire NBA. They won all eight games in the bubble and while they were still denied a playoff berth, that hasn’t stopped them from starting this season 26-12. Truly one of the ascendent teams in this league, the Suns are only 2.5 games back of the Jazz for the top spot in the Western Conference as they have won 18 of their past 22 games. They are off a commanding 122-99 win over Memphis back on Monday. 

Minnesota operates at the opposite end of the spectrum. They have the fewest number of wins in the NBA (9) and have been the loser in 11 of their last 13 contests. Tuesday saw them go down 137-121 at the hands of the Lakers, who were playing the second night of a back to back. Thus the T’wolves were again denied B2B wins, something they have not done since starting the season 2-0! Since that time, they are just 7-31 SU overall. This is the first of two straight games for them here in Phoenix. 

The last time these teams played was Feb 28. That was a relatively low-scoring game with the Suns winning 118-99 (as a 10-pt favorite). Neither team shot well from 3-point range and it was a bad overall shooting night from Minnesota. Given that the T’wolves just allowed 137 points in their last game, I expect Phoenix to score plenty tonight. They’ve scored 120 or more in 8 of the last 12 games. Minnesota’s L5 games have averaged 241.4 points as they’ve topped 120 three times themselves while also giving up that many three times. They’ve allowed 135+ twice. The Over is 6-1 for them this season after a game where they allowed 130+ points. 10* Over T’Wolves/Suns

8* Under Bucks/Sixers (7:05 ET): There are three elite teams in the NBA’s Eastern Conference this season and these are definitely two of them (Brooklyn being the other). Milwaukee has finished first in the East each of the L2 seasons (no NBA Finals appearances though) and has the best YTD point differential. But it’s Philadelphia leading the way so far this year with a 28-12 SU record and they’ve won six in a row. Not to be outdone, the Bucks come into tonight riding a four-game win streak. Something will have to give.

Philly’s recent shooting spree was “due” to cool off and sure enough it did last night. While they still managed to beat the Knicks, they did so in low-scoring fashion, 99-96 as seven-point favorites. They had to come from behind to win and did so by holding the Knicks to just 14 points in the fourth quarter. The previous five games had seen the Sixers shoot a blistering 54.2% from the field, which couldn’t possibly be sustained and sure enough they shot just 41.1% last night, including 11 of 32 from three-point range. 

Milwaukee has scored 125+ in each of its last three games, but two of those were against Washington, who plays little to no defense. The Bucks shot 55.3% from the field in their last game, so they are due to “cool off” as well. The Sixers are #2 in the league in defensive efficiency and 4-1 Under this season when the total is 230 points or higher. This should be a hard fought game that stays Under a VERY high total. 8* Under Bucks/Sixers

10* Over Clippers/Mavericks (9:05 ET): Following a terrible 135-115 loss last night in New Orleans, Kawhi Leonard called the Clippers’ lack of consistency “very concerning.” He’s right. The team trailed by as many as 33 last night and is now only fourth in the Western Conference standings. They’ve dropped four of their last five games with the only win coming at home vs. Golden State. All four losses have come on the road - where they’ll be again tonight - and two were to sub-.500 teams. 

Speaking of inconsistent, it will be Dallas hosting the Clippers tonight. The Mavs have been on a recent uptick, winning five of their last six games, but are still only in 8th place. I expect better from them after an underachieving 2019-20 campaign. Saturday’s 116-103 win in Denver was definitely a step in the right direction, especially coming on the heels of a disappointing loss at Oklahoma City in the previous game. 

If there is one bright spot for the Clippers here, it’s the fact they are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season in the second night of back to back. But who could forget the last time they faced Dallas? They were down 50 points at halftime, which was a shot-clock era record, and suffered the worst defeat in franchise history (124-73). Obviously, they are going to score more tonight. But with a suspect defense (Pelicans shot 65.4% last night) and Patrick Beverley still M.I.A (and maybe Serge Ibaka too), the Clips will give up their fair share here as well. I see this game easily going Over the total as the Over has hit in each of the L4 Clippers’ games plus Dallas is 4-0 Over the L4 times it has been off a double digit win. 10* Over Clippers/Mavericks

8* Over Warriors/Suns (10:05 ET): Golden State has now lost two in a row. They usually come up big in this spot and by “usually,” I actually mean “always” as they’ve yet to lose three games in a row at any point this season. Ironically, these B2B defeats came on the heels of the Dubs’ first three-game WIN streak of the season. They fell last night in Portland 108-106. That they weren’t able to score more points against a bad defensive team like the Blazers has to be viewed as terribly disappointing.

Building off last year’s perfect run in the NBA “bubble” the Suns are definitely a team you want to pay attention to in the Western Conference. Winners of 15 of their last 18 games, including the last three, they are now in second place ahead of both the Clippers and Lakers. They just beat the Lakers 114-104 on Tuesday. It was the third straight game and fifth time in the last six that they held the opposition to 104 or lower. That’s really impressive, but six of their last eight games (including vs. the Lakers) have still gone Over. 

The Under is 6-0 the L6 times these teams have met. The most recent meeting took place in late January and saw Phoenix win 114-93. Golden State had a dreadful shooting night there, but I expect better from them tonight as they are still quite capable of a big night, like when they made over 60% against Charlotte last week. Outside of Steph Curry, no one stepped up last night. Expect a player or two to step up here and Phoenix is shooting 50% its L5 games. 8* Over Warriors/Suns

8* Over Heat/Pelicans (8:35 ET): I realize that Miami sometimes can be a low-scoring team (finished with just 80 points Tuesday vs. Atlanta), but New Orleans’ games almost always end up being high-scoring and that’s how I think this one will end up. The Pelicans have seen 11 of their last 12 games stay Under the total. The exception was a 117-114 loss to San Antonio where the O/U line was 232. That is the only time in the last seven games NO failed to score at least 120 points. 

Miami has been held to 85 points or less six different times this year, which is the most in the entire league. But the 80 they scored Tuesday marked a new season-low as they couldn’t hit “water from a boat” early on, especially from behind the arc. They missed 13 of their first 15 three-point attempts and were never really in the game. You’ve gotta expect better shooting tonight, even if Bam Adebayo and/or Jimmy Butler sit. It helps that they are facing a Pelicans team that is 29th in defensive efficiency and lets teams hit nearly 40% from 3-pt range. 

New Orleans is also coming off a loss, theirs by a score of 128-124 to Chicago. The fact the Pelicans have scored 120 or more in seven of their last nine games, but gone only 4-5 SU should tell you all you need to know about their defensive capabilities. Not surprisingly, they have the highest Over percentage in the league. The Heat are 5-1 Over following a double digit loss at home. 8* Over Heat/Pelicans

10* Over Magic/Hawks (8:05 ET): In their first game under interim coach Nate McMillan, Atlanta picked up a much needed victory last night in Miami. It didn’t take many points to do so (just 94) as the Heat were held under 85 points for a NBA-high sixth time this season (they finished with just 80). Truthfully, it didn’t take long to figure out what the final result would be. Miami opened the game by missing 13 of its first 15 three-point attempts and never really recovered. The 80 points scored were a season-low for them. 

Coming off a game like that, it may seem a little strange that I’m liking the Hawks to go Over the total tonight. But I think the number of points allowed last night had less to do with Atlanta’s defense and more with it being just an “off-night” for the Heat. For the season, the Hawks are still allowing 112.2 PPG on 46.6% shooting. They are in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. Last night was the fewest points allowed by Atlanta in a game all season. It’s a given they’ll allow many more tonight.

At the same time, I expect the Hawks own shooting to improve as well. Trae Young has been struggling recently. It’s the first time he’s gone three consecutive games without scoring at least 20 at least once. He has just 50 points in the three games. But facing a team that just gave up 130 points in its last game should change all that. Orlando has actually allowed 124+ points in three straight, so they are really struggling at that end of the floor right now. The Over is 11-5 the L16 times in Atlanta has been in a back to back. 10* Over Hawks/Magic

10* Under Suns/Lakers (10:05 ET): Should be a good game here. The Suns are most definitely “hot” and a “team on the rise” (see what I did there?) in the Western Conference. They’ve gone 14-3 SU since Jan 28 and have established themselves as a top four team (in the West). They’ve held four of their last five opponents to 100 points or less, the lone exception being a wild loss at home to Charlotte last Wednesday. They’ve since won at both Chicago (106-97) and Minnesota (118-99). 

The challenge will obviously be greater here as the Suns face the defending NBA Champion Lakers. However, things haven’t been all that great in LA recently. There was a four-game losing streak that culminated with a beatdown at the hands of the Jazz. Clearly, LeBron James misses the injured Anthony Davis. But like what we’ve seen from Phoenix of late, the Lakers quickly got back to playing defense. They come into tonight having won two in a row as they held Portland to 93 and Golden State to 91 points. 

The Lakers are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency (by a pretty comfortable margin) and allow just 105.6 PPG. Five of their last six games have seen either they or the opponent held below 100. The one exception was an overtime loss to the Wizards, whose games are almost always high-scoring. Phoenix also happens to be in the top six in defensive efficiency and they are also second to last in tempo, meaning their games - on average - feature the second fewest number of possessions in the league. Fewer possessions = less scoring. The L4 meetings here in LA have all stayed Under. 10* Under Suns/Lakers

10* Under Nuggets/Thunder (8:05 ET): Second night of a back to back for OKC here. They beat Atlanta last night, 118-109. It was an odd game that saw both teams wearing very similar color jerseys at first. The Thunder made a “wardrobe change” at halftime and it seemed to work, although it was the first half that saw them shoot 60% from the field. I highly doubt we’ll see that kind of shooting again from them and not just because they are 28th in the league in offensive efficiency and 27th in points per game. Their four games previous to last night all stayed Under the total. So will this one.

Denver has had its own issues lately, though not wardrobe related. They’ve lost four of six to fall back into eighth place in the Western Conference. That’s still a whole heck of a lot better than where Oklahoma City is at (12th), but the Nuggets were in the Conference Finals last season and expect to finish high. Ironically, I think they’re better than their record this year, something I did NOT believe to be the case each of the L2 seasons. 

These teams just met two weeks ago and the final score was 97-95 with Denver winning at home. They combined to miss 52 of 72 three-point attempts. A little known fact with the Nuggets is that they play at the third slowest tempo in the league, so there are a fewer number of possessions in their games and thus fewer chances to score. Over the L5 games, the Thunder have defended well, allowing an average of just 103 PPG. Three of Denver’s last four games would have stayed Under tonight’s total as would have seven of the last nine Thunder games. 10* Under Nuggets/Thunder

10* Under Blazers/Lakers (10:05 ET): The Lakers are really reeling right now as Anthony Davis is hurt and they’ve lost four in a row. It was pretty clear watching Wednesday’s 114-89 loss to the Jazz that LeBron James is being forced to shoulder too much of the load and is overextended right now. Wednesday was also the third time in the last four games that the Lakers failed to score 100 points. That’s just terrible. On the bright side, the team has still managed to retain the top spot in the defensive efficiency ratings. 

Portland is also on a losing streak (three games) and dealing with injuries. They’ve been without both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic for a while now. At first, they were making due. But it now seems as if the injuries to two of the team’s three best players are starting to catch up. A bad sign for the Blazers is that they have already suffered six 20+ point losses this season. Another is that they are 29th in the league in defensive efficiency rating. However, it was a close loss to Denver Tuesday night (111-106) and the game stayed Under. 

That’s the way I see this one going as well. Just too many injuries on both sides. The Lakers are probably getting Dennis Schroeder back, but by their own admission, the rotation is a mess right now. Portland actually held Denver to 42.6% shooting, a good sign. The Lakers are 3-0 Under this season when coming off a double digit loss and 9-1 Under when facing a team that has a winning record. The Blazers are 18-13 SU on the year. 10* Under Blazers/Lakers

10* Under Heat/Kings (10:05 ET): The Heat have lost three in a row. The Kings have lost four in a row. So something is going to have to give in the lone NBA matchup NOT being televised on TNT Thursday night. Placing the Heat at a disadvantage is the fact they played last night at Golden State where they lost 120-112 in overtime. But the Kings certainly weren’t as good as their record BEFORE going 0-4 SU/ATS L4 games (all at home). They have the third worst point differential in the Western Conference.

It was 105-105 at the end of regulation last night for the Heat, a score that sends a “shiver” down my spine. That’s because it was the same exact score for Chicago-Indiana Monday night when overtime similarly ruined an Under play I had. The fact that last night’s game stayed Under by double digits in regulation absolutely should be accounted for here. I know the Kings are bad defensively, but Miami has failed to score more than 105 pts in regulation in four of its last five games. They are 27th in the league in scoring.

Sacramento’s last three games have all gone Over the total as they’ve allowed 123, 124 and 136 points. Again, I know they are bad defensively. But this could be as favorable a matchup as they’ve gotten in a while at that end of the floor. When these teams met three weeks ago, it was a 105-104 final (Miami win) and neither team shot all that poorly. I don’t see why we should expect in excess of 15 more points scored the second time around. The Heat are 7-3 Under in non-conference games. 10* Under Heat/Kings

10* Over Blazers/Pelicans (9:05 ET): The Blazers have moved into a fourth-place tie (w/ Phoenix) in the Western Conference standings. They won their fifth in a row last night, beating Oklahoma City 115-104. Damian Lillard led the way with 31 points, 12 of those coming in the fourth quarter. That Portland has continued to win in the face of two key injuries (McCollum, Nurkic) is pretty impressive, but let’s see how they do here in the second night of a back to back. They are 5-0 ATS during the 5-game win streak. 

New Orleans is just outside the top 10 in the West right now, although they have scored more points than they’ve allowed. That’s thanks to an impressive 144-113 win in Memphis last night, the fifth straight Pelicans game to go Over the total. These games aren’t just “sneaking” over either; they’re FLYING over. There have been three separate times in the five games that NO has scored at least 130 points. They even lost one of them! They’ve allowed 123 or more points three times as well. 

Seeing as Portland is 29th in the league in defensive efficiency, this has all the makings of another high-scoring Pelicans’ game. The teams haven’t met in roughly a year, but the last two times produced combined point totals of 243 and 255. Both were Pelicans’ victories as they averaged 133 PPG. They shot 61% last night, including 19 of 38 from three. The previous three games saw them ALLOW an alarming shooting percentage of more than 55%. The Over is 11-3 in games where the Pelicans are favored. 10* Over Blazers/Pelicans

10* Over Nets/Suns (10:35 ET): This should be a fun one from Phoenix Tuesday night on TNT. The Suns are most definitely a “team on the rise” (see what I did there) in the Western Conference as they are currently 4th in the standings. Their ascension really began last August in the bubble when they won every game. That may not have been enough to make the playoffs last season, but I’d bank on there being postseason basketball in the desert in 2021, which would be the 1st time that's happened in 11 years. 

Brooklyn is a team that believes it can win a NBA Championship. They’ve won three straight while also covering the spread against Indiana, Golden State and Sacramento. However, even with that win streak, the Nets are still only 17-12 SU and third in the Eastern Conference. This West Coast trip has definitely gotten off to a high-scoring start as the team has topped 130 points in both wins. The Nets now lead the league in scoring (121.4 PPG), but defense is an issue as only the Wizards and Kings allow more points per game. They just faced the Kings last night and a total of 261 total points were scored!

So it shouldn’t be a surprise to learn that the Nets are one of the league’s top Over teams. They have the second highest Over percentage for the season (21-8) and only three of their previous 23 games have stayed Under. Not to be outdone, Phoenix is shooting a blistering 51.6% its last five games and has won six straight. While three of those wins have required no more than 109 points, it’s a MUCH different matchup tonight and even with Kevin Durant not playing, this game is likely to go Over. 10* Over Nets/Suns

10* Under Bulls/Pacers (7:05 ET): Indiana had a big fourth quarter (41 points) Saturday night and wound up picking up a road win in Atlanta. They outscored the Hawks 27-7 down the stretch en route to a final score of 125-113. Meanwhile, Chicago is off a loss to the Clippers (125-106 as 7-point underdogs) where they couldn’t come close to the shooting from their previous game (made franchise record 25 three-pointers in a 129-116 win over New Orleans on Wednesday). Let’s talk about what to expect here. 

Prior to winning in Atlanta, the Pacers’ previous four games had all gone Under. In two of the games, both losses, they were held under 100 points. So what we saw Saturday, especially in the fourth quarter, is NOT something you should expect here tonight. The Pacers have now won two straight, but before that had lost six of seven. The one win was high scoring (134-116 against Memphis), but they immediately came back “down to Earth” in the next game and scored just 110. That’s what I expect to transpire tonight.

Chicago hasn’t beaten Indiana in awhile. They’ve lost the last TEN meetings, a streak which goes all the way back to the start of 2018. The last four times these division rivals have met, the game has gone Over. This includes a 125-106 Indiana win the day after X-Mas. But, as already alluded to, I anticipate this game being lower-scoring. The Pacers shot almost 56% from the field in that last meeting, which won’t happen again. Nor will the Bulls make 41% from three-point range again. 10* Under Bulls/Pacers

10* Over 76ers/Suns (3:05 ET): Phoenix comes into this game on a 4-game win streak. All four wins were at home and they’ve covered the spread every time out. The most impressive of the four victories came Wednesday when the Suns erased a 16-point deficit and beat Milwaukee 125-124. There is no doubt that this is an ascendent team in the Western Conference, after last year’s incredible performance in the “bubble” and current 4th place standing. No one will want to face them in the first round of the playoffs. 

Philadelphia is the first place team in the Eastern Conference as they own an 18-8 SU record. But they did just drop a game in Portland the other night, as 5.5-point favorites, 118-114. I’d previously taken them in Sacramento (that was my 10* Game of the Week) and they came from behind in the 4th quarter there to win 119-111. The Sixers’ only two losses in the L8 games both came against Portland (weird) and over the L7 they’ve managed to score at least 114 points six times, which is their season average.

This total looks a little low to me. The last four times the teams have played, the Over has hit. There have been more than 230 total pts scored in each of the teams’ last two games. The Over is 6-2 in the Suns’ last eight games following a SU win. The Over is also 13-6 in the Sixers’ L19 games, including 5-2 on the road. 10* Over 76ers/Suns

10* Over Bucks/Jazz (9:05 ET): It’s a shame this game ISN’T on ESPN Friday night as we’ve got the team with the best record in the league (Utah) facing the team I feel is still the best in the Eastern Conference (Milwaukee). The Jazz have won 16 of their last 17 games and are very much “for real” as they possess the NBA’s best net efficiency rating. Their record shouldn’t be that surprising, considering the fact they’ve been favored in all but two of their 25 games this season.

Now Milwaukee can claim to have the league’s point differential. They’ve outscored the opposition by nearly 10 PPG this season. That tells me they are very likely to eventually overtake the Sixers for the top spot in the East as I firmly believe scoring differential to be a strong indicator of future outcomes. The Bucks are off a loss though, 125-124 at Phoenix Wednesday, a game in which they blew a 16-point lead. This will mark the first time all season that they have been an underdog.

We’ve got two of the top four efficient offenses meeting here on Friday night, so expect plenty of points. The Bucks have scored 123 or more points in six consecutive games and no, there’s been no overtime during that stretch. Of course, they are averaging 121.4 PPG for the season. Utah’s defense has been really good, especially at home, but containing the Bucks can prove problematic. The Jazz have scored at least 112 in seven of their last eight games. When the teams met in Milwaukee last month, it was a 131-118 Jazz victory and the shooting (on both sides) wasn’t all that great. The Bucks are 4-0 Over on the road when the total is 230 or higher. 10* Over Bucks/Jazz

10* Under Raptors/Celtics (7:35 ET): Toronto put 137 points on the board last night. It was their fifth consecutive game topping 120 and 7th in a row to go Over the total. But they were also facing the Wizards, who are as inept defensively as any team in this league. Tonight, on no rest, the Raptors must head into Boston. The Celtics should force this into being a lower-scoring game as they are allowing the second fewest number of points per game in the Eastern Conference right now. I’m going Under here.

Boston enters this game off a loss as they were beaten 122-108 by the red hot Jazz Tuesday night. That was the end of a disappointing 2-3 “West Coast” swing for the Celtics as they had no answers down the stretch. Utah, who has the best record in the league, ended the game on a 14-4 run. It was the most points given up by the Celtics in any game since 1/22 and just the fifth time all season that they allowed 120 or more. The good news (for us) is that the Under has gone 16-5-1 in Celtics’ games when the team is coming off a road trip of at least 7 days. 

This looks to be one of the highest O/U lines for any Celtics game this season. Previous to this, only three of their home games have had a total of 220 or higher. That makes sense given Toronto’s recent offensive numbers, but the Raptors aren’t going to make 19 three-pointers again as they did last night. They’ve faced some BAD defensive teams lately, which partly explains the rash of Overs we’ve seen from their games. It ends here. 10* Under Raptors/Celtics

10* Over Hawks/Mavs (7:35 ET): I cashed the Over when these teams met last week in Atlanta. At the time, Dallas was on a six-game losing streak and totally desperate for a win. They’ve now won three of their last four and every one of those games have gone Over the total. Since beating the Hawks 122-116, the Mavs split a pair of games with Golden State and then defeated Minnesota 127-122 Monday night. They’ve averaged 124.75 points these L4 games and have scored at least 116 in all of them. 

Atlanta also is off a win. They had previously lost three in a row with two sub-100 point games before cruising to a high-scoring, 132-121 win over Toronto on Saturday. The three days off before this rematch were always “on the books;” this was not a case of COVID-19 postponing any games. The only previous time the Hawks played with this much rest was on 1/15 at Utah and that game did not go well as they lost 116-92. I am expecting a lot more points here from two teams that both topped 125 in their last games. 

The Hawks shot 50% from the floor in last week’s meeting, but that wasn’t enough to overcome 27 points from Luka Doncic and a 69-point second half from the Mavericks, who made 23 of 25 free throws. The teams also combined to make 27 three-pointers. Atlanta has been more of an “Under team” this year, especially on the road, but just shot a blistering 56.8% from the field in their last game. Dallas has not only scored 116+ in each of the L4 games, they’ve also given up at least 116 in all four. 10* Over Hawks/Mavs

10* Over Wizards/Hornets (1:05 ET): Washington has now been back on the court for eight games since their two-week hiatus due to COVID-19. They’ve won only twice, both times by just three points. One of those wins I was on. It was the wild 149-146 win over Brooklyn last Sunday. While the Wizards easily covered (+9), it was a game they probably should have lost. The only other win came Wednesday, again as nine-point underdogs, 103-100 over Miami. The Wiz subsequently lost to the Heat 122-95 on Friday. 

Charlotte has been better than I’d anticipated so far as they’re a respectable 10-13 SU. They’ve been an underdog in 17 of the 23 games. They’re coming in off B2B losses, both here at home, as they faced Philadelphia and Utah. Those were a couple tough opponents, so you can’t really be surprised at the end results. Still, you have to be concerned any time a team gives up 138 points like the Hornets did Friday against the Jazz. It was their fourth consecutive game to go Over the total. 

For Washington, Bradley Beal opened the last game by missing his first 13 shots. Needless to say, I don’t think we’ll see that again. Beal leads the league in scoring at 33.3 PPG. The Hornets’ last five opponents have averaged 117.2 PPG on 48.8% shooting. You should also expect the Wizards to give up plenty of points here as well. They are 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. Charlotte has topped 120 in three of its last four games and is 4th in the conference in fast break points. Washington is #1 in the league in pace. 10* Over Wizards/Hornets

8* Under Grizzlies/Pelicans (9:05 ET): It was a razor-thin win with the Under (half-point!) on the Pelicans’ matchup with the Pacers last night, but I’m coming right back with the same bet again Saturday as they turn around and host the Grizzlies. As discussed in yday’s analysis, New Orleans had been going Over a lot recently; 8 of 9 games prior to last night. Friday also marked the first time in 15 games that the Pelicans won without scoring 123 or more points. Look for their play on the defensive end to continue to improve here. 

Memphis opened February with a dominating 133-102 win in San Antonio. It was their seventh consecutive win at the time. But now they’ve dropped two in a row, 134-116 at Indiana and 115-103 at home vs. Houston. The hideous defensive effort against the Pacers came on the second night of a back to back. But there was no such excuse for the loss to the Rockets, which surprised me. I should point out that the Grizzlies' games are averaging “just” 219.1 PPG this season, which is comfortably below the total here. 

This will be just the second back to back for the Pelicans so far this season. The first was last Saturday and did not go well as they gave up 126 in a 14-point loss to the Rockets. Expect a better defensive effort this time around though. Despite allowing the Pacers to hit 20 of 42 three-point attempts, the Pelicans only allowed 113 points, which isn’t all that bad. Six of the last seven meetings with Memphis have stayed Under. I also don’t think the Pelicans are going to shoot as well as they have the last two games (around 52%). When the Grizzlies won those seven straight games, they were allowing an average of just 104.3 PPG. Look for them to get back to playing defense as well. 8* Under Grizzlies/Pelicans

8* Under Pelicans/Pacers (7:05 ET): The Pelicans come into this game off a 123-101 win against Phoenix. That was arguably their best effort in weeks. It was just the fourth win in the last 14 games and what’s interesting there is they’ve scored 123 or more in all four victories. They are 0-10 when not hitting that benchmark. Tonight they’ve got to like their chances against an Indiana team that just gave up 130 on Wednesday, but that was to Milwaukee. I don’t see New Orleans getting to 123 points tonight. 

The Pacers are just 4-6 SU their last 10 games after the blowout loss to the Bucks 48 hours ago. What’s so disappointing is not just that they trailed by as many as 40 points in Milwaukee, but they were coming off a 134-point effort against a previously red hot Memphis team the night prior. It was the worst defensive effort of the season vs. the Bucks, in terms of points allowed in the first half and a game. They also let Milwaukee hit 21 three-pointers, the most EVER by a Pacers’ opponent. You’ve got to bank on the idea that Indiana will come out and play better defense tonight. 

Obviously, both teams have been going Over a lot recently. Indiana in three straight games, New Orleans in 8 of its last 9. As a result, the O/U line tonight is much higher than it was when these teams played last month (216). That game went Over, but only did so because of overtime. The Under is 20-8 for Indiana coming off a game where they allowed 125+ points. Their games have averaged 226.1 PPG this season, which is just under where this number is. Pelicans’ games are at 223.5. I think we’re heading for a surprisingly “low-scoring game” here. 8* Under Pelicans/Pacers

10* Over Mavericks/Hawks (7:35 ET): I have to say that I’m a bit shocked to see Dallas on a six-game losing streak. Coming into the season, this is a team I expected to battle for a top four spot in the Western Conference. Instead, they are languishing closer to the bottom of the standings with an 8-12 SU record and a lot of “finger-pointing.” Just a few days ago, PG Luka Doncic went on record and said it was “looking like we didn’t care.” The Mavs better start caring or the rest of the West will leave them behind. 

Over in the Eastern Conference, Atlanta is a pretty nice story as they’ve climbed their way into the top six and look like one of the most improved teams in the entire league this season. They did come up short here at home against the Lakers Monday night, losing 107-99, but certainly no one is going to fault them for losing to LeBron and company. While “only” .500 on the season (10-10 SU), the Hawks have a positive point differential and efficiency rating, so they are “going places.”

Most of these losses for Dallas have been close with the most recent (109-108 vs. Phoenix) being decided on a Devin Booker jumper with 1.5 seconds remaining. I still have faith that they’ll eventually turn things around. As for this game, look for both them and the Hawks to increase their scoring from the respective last games. The Mavs led the NBA in offensive efficiency last season, yet have not broken 110 in four consecutive games. Atlanta has been an “Under team” as well, but has seen an uptick in the L5 games. They are 12-2 to the Over L14 games as a home dog. 10* Over Mavericks/Hawks

10* Under Clippers/Nets (7:35 ET): With three of the top stars in the game (Durant, Irving, Harden), it certainly appears as if Brooklyn is going to test how far the oddsmakers are willing to go when it comes to setting O/U lines. Saturday vs. Washington, the number was 244, as high an O/U line as you’ll see. Still, the game went Over by more than 50 points as the Nets actually lost to the Wizards 149-147! I was happy with the result having taken the Wizards +7. Now I’m going to be even more daring. 

The Over is 15-1 in Brooklyn’s last 16 games. That’s pretty incredible, especially when you consider how high the O/U lines have been. Saturday’s was the highest yet. I suppose we’ll continue to see numbers north of 240, but to me this number is just too large. The Clippers are a lot better than the Wizards in all aspects of the game, but especially when it comes to playing defense. They allow just 106.7 PPG. Another key is tempo. The Clips play at the second slowest pace in the league, meaning only one team (New York) averages fewer possessions per game. 

Now the Clippers just faced the Knicks and the game ended up being a 129-115 final. So much for pace there. But the total was just 210, a far cry from what it is here. There’s a chance this will go off as the highest O/U line of the season to date in the entire NBA and that’s even with the number being bet down a few points since it opened. Nets’ games do average 239.9 total PPG this season, but that’s still below this number. Clippers’ games average “just” 221.2. The Under is 2-0 this season in Clippers’ games where the total is 230 or higher. 10* Under Clippers/Nets

10* Under Nuggets/Spurs (8:35 ET): Denver is looking to complete a perfect road trip tonight in San Antonio. They’ve won their last five games overall, covering the spread every time. This win streak has the Nuggets a solid 4th in the Western Conference standings, one game ahead of the 5th place Spurs, who are off a 110-106 win over Boston that took place here at home on Wednesday night. That was the Spurs’ second straight win and 8th in the last 12 games. Should be a competitive game tonight in the Alamo.

Denver has a very efficient offense, ranking 4th in the league in points per possession. They have to be efficient because they are actually bottom four in pace (# of possessions per game). It was pretty easy Wednesday night against a Heat team that has been hit hard by COVID-19. The Nuggets enjoyed their largest halftime lead of the season (25 points) and held Miami to just 82 pts for the game. While known more as an “offensive team,” the Nuggets have held three of their last four opponents under 42% shooting for the game. With some of the recent Overs, note two of the games went to overtime. 

San Antonio probably isn’t going to shoot 56.1% from the field again like they did Wednesday against Boston. That they shot that well and still ended up with “only” 110 points is a little telling about the kind of game the Spurs wish to play. There was a stretch vs. Boston (end of 1st half) where they made 10 consecutive shots, including two layups in the last four seconds before halftime. Again, don’t see that happening again. Nor do I see the Spurs turning it over as much as they did (19 times) vs. the Celtics. Look for this to be a game with few possessions and solid defense. 10* Under Nuggets/Spurs

10* Over Knicks/Jazz (9:05 ET): The Knicks, on average, have produced the LOWEST scoring games in the league this season. The good news is that they are allowing the fewest number of points per game in the league at 103.6. The bad news is their own scoring average of 101.9 is also - by far - a league low. That combined game scoring average of 205.5 is a full 7.6 PPG lower than the next lowest team (Cleveland). I guess it shouldn’t be surprising then that the Under is 12-6 in all Knicks games this season. 

Utah has won eight in a row, the longest win streak that the league has seen so far in 2020-21. The Jazz have also covered the spread in all eight wins, so this is a team playing very well right now. They’ve clearly established themselves as the third best team in the West, behind only the two hailing from LA. In the last two games, they’ve scored 129 and 127 points. All but one of those eight consecutive victories have come by double digits. Shockingly, the Knicks are the last team to defeat Utah, having done so on January 6th at MSG by a score of 112-100. They were eight-point home dogs. 

Despite the score of the first meeting and the Knicks in general, I see tonight’s game “sneaking Over” the total. Utah is at home where they are averaging a very solid 114.6 PPG. They only shot 44% for the game on Jan 6 and missed 30 of 44 three-point attempts. That won’t happen again here. It is worth mentioning that despite only losing by three on Saturday to Portland, the Knicks trailed by as many as 25. They also trailed Utah by 18 before coming back to win. This is a really low total and while it matches the total # of points scored in the first meeting, it’s difficult to imagine there won’t be more points scored this time around. 10* Over Knicks/Jazz