10* Over Knicks/Pacers (5:05 ET): Indiana is working on a few streaks coming into this Sunday afternoon contest. For starters, they've covered their last four games. They've won their last five straight up. But the one we'll focus on today is that they've gone Under nine straight times. That seems like an unsustainable streak to me and the oddsmakers have taken notice, installing a pretty low total for this matchup. It is actually higher than when these teams played back on Oct 31, but that was still early in the season when both were figuring things out. (The Knicks still haven't really figured things out, btw). 

Leading scorer Victor Oladipo is now back for Indiana. His absence for 11 games at least partially explains the Under streak. He has been back for the last two contests, but predictably, it's taking some time to get back "into rhythm." Oladipo is just 10 of 27 from the field, with 26 points, so far. Don't be surprised though if this is the game where he gets it going again. He did nail a couple of clutch threes late in the team's 113-101 win over Philadelphia Friday. That's probably a sign of things to come. 

The Knicks roster resembles a M*A*S*H* unit right now w/ a lot of guys hurt. But on Friday, they were able to rally back from a 21-point deficit to defeat Charlotte in overtime, 126-124. That final score is obviously inflated by five extra minutes of play, but the Knicks clearly have their issues defensively as they give up 115.2 PPG on the year and are 29th in the league in efficiency. The question here is how many points will NY score? Well, they average about 109 (108.9 PPG to be exact) and if they can get to that number, then this game should have no problem going Over. The Knicks are 3-0 Over the L3 games and 10-2 Over when seeking revenge for a home loss. 10* Over Knicks/Pacers

10* Under Wizards/Nets (7:35 ET): Two struggling teams meet here. Washington has to be on the short list for biggest disappointment in the league, having started 11-17 SU. Having made the playoffs four of the past five seasons, in-fighting and just bad basketball are threatening to tear this team up. They've lost three in a row coming into tonight, the most recent defeat coming at home to Boston Wednesday night. That game went to overtime, so beware the 130-125 final score. I feel tonight's O/U line is simply too high, thus I'm on the Under. 

Brooklyn has been searching for answers ever since losing leading scorer Caris LeVert to a serious injury. From 11/21 to 12/5, they lost eight in a row, but have since found a spark w/ a three-game win streak (also 3-0 ATS). They certainly didn't appear to miss LeVert Wednesday, winning 127-124 at Philadelphia while shooting nearly 52% from the field. Winning on the road, against one of the top teams in the East, is certainly impressive. Especially when you consider the Sixers shot 54% overall themselves! But the Nets counteracted that by going 14 of 28 from three-point range and 37 of 43 from the FT line. Spencer Dinwiddie went for a career-best 39 pts as well. I suspect none of those numbers will be repeated tonight.

Washington is a perfect 4-0 Under following a game where they allowed 130+ pts this season. Bottom line is that all the numbers from both teams' last games are due to come down. That's both offensively and defensively. Brooklyn will not make nor will they attempt as many free throws. They aren't going to shoot 50% from three-point range on a high volume of attempts either. When they met two weeks ago, it was a rough shooting night all around as the Wiz prevailed 102-88 in D.C. The teams combined to 16 for 59 from three-point range and Brooklyn was just 30 for 81 overall for the game. 10* Under Wizards/Nets 

10* Over Bulls/Magic (9:35 ET): I like both side and total in this game, which takes place in Mexico City. Let's start w/ the total, which I like a little bit more. In one of the more bizarre trends you'll find, the Bulls & Magic have gone Under the total 11 straight times when facing off. I'm going to call for that to end Thursday as this O/U is way too low for pretty much any matchup, by 2018 standards. I realize the Magic are coming off a terrible 76-point showing in Dallas while Chicago is dead last in the league in offensive efficiency. But when you look at the season-long numbers for both sides, it adds up to an Over.

The Under is 8-2 in the Bulls' previous 10 games. They too are off a couple "stinkers" offensively. First, they were held to 77 pts in a humiliating 56-pt home loss to Boston. Then, perhaps equally as embarrassing was getting held to 89 points at home by Sacramento. There's a lot of turmoil going on w/ the Bulls right now as the players haven't exactly taken a "liking" to interim HC Jim Boylen. But both Kris Dunn and Bobby Portis are back from knee injuries and we should start to see some improvement, at least on the offensive end. 

Orlando is off a dreadful shooting night against Dallas where they finished at 36% overall from the field and missed 20 of 28 three-point attempts. You have to figure they're going to shoot better here, even in a relatively unfamiliar environment. Leading scorer Nikola Vucevic, in particular, should have a bounce back game after he scored a season-low eight points on 4 of 15 shooting vs. Dallas. The Magic were also w/o both Mo Bamba (suspended) and third-leading scorer Evan Fournier in that one. Both are expected back Thursday and like Chicago, we should see a rather dramatic increase offensively from the Magic compared to the last game. They average 104.6 PPG while giving up 107.9. Chicago averages 101.8 PPG while giving up 112.9. Both of those points scored vs. allowed averages work out to an Over here. 10* Over Bulls/Magic

8* Under Clippers/Spurs (8:35 ET): We've gotten a glimpse of the "Spurs of old" as in their last two games (both wins), they've held the opposition to just 97 and 86 points respectively. That's a far cry from when Greg Popovich's team was torched for 127 PPG over the previous six games, a stretch where the Over went 6-0. While their defensive efficiency rating has slipped (tied for 26th), perhaps we're seeing the start of a turnaround. For tonight, it helps that the Spurs are at home where they allow "only" 106.6 PPG as opposed to the 118.1 PPG they give up on the road. 

The Clippers have been one of the real surprises in the league so far. At one point, they head the best record in the Western Conference! But after needing OT to get by lowly Phoenix Monday night, the Clips got blown out in Toronto 123-99 the following night. It was their third SU loss in the last four games and they're 0-4 ATS during that same stretch. They've been held under 100 pts in all three losses and have averaged just 98.5 PPG in regulation factoring in the game against the Suns. Right now, LA is w/o Lou Williams, who is their third leading scorer despite being a reserve. 

San Antonio shot a blistering 62% from three-point range in Tuesday's 111-86 win over Phoenix. I wouldn't look for that number to be repeated here. Even though they are shooting the ball really well from distance for the season, the Spurs are still at "only" 38.9% behind the arc. Nor would I look for Bryn Forbes to approach the career-high in points (24) he set vs. Phoenix, a night which included him going 5 for 5 on three-point attempts. Through the years, the Spurs are 6-1 Under in home games where the total is 220 pts or higher. These teams played a high scoring game last month (116-111 Clippers win), but I expect different this time around. 8* Under Clippers/Spurs

8* Over Lakers/Rockets (8:05 ET): When these teams met early in the season, they have little difficulty in going Over a much higher total. Thus, I have no problem taking the Over here. The Lakers lost that early season meeting, 124-115, in Houston. It was part of an 0-3 start to the season for them, but they're the ones that have turned things around, going 17-7 SU since. Meanwhile, the Rockets are still trying to dig themselves out of a hole. They're two games below .500 entering play tonight and second from the bottom in the Western Conference. 

Under has admittedly been the way to go w/ the Lakers over the last month. The Under is 16-4 in their L20 games, a stretch which dates all the way back to Halloween. Their last two games have stayed Under the total, but both came against low-scoring teams, Memphis and Miami . This should be a much different style of game w/ Houston likely trying to push the pace. Also, it's not as if the Lakers are a bad offensive team. They average 113.1 PPG on 47.4%. You may have heard of LeBron James, who has seen improvement in his three-point shooting since coming to LA. James and the Lakers should exploit a Rockets team that is 25th in defensive efficiency.

Houston found itself down double digits at home in the first half to Portland Tuesday night. They roared back for a 111-103 victory, snapping a three-game losing streak. They'd also gone 2-7 SU and ATS the last nine games. I have to say that it's been rather shocking to see how far the Rockets have fallen offensively after being neck & neck w/ Golden State last year in terms of efficiency and points per game. But there's still a lot of time to rectify that fall and the team's home games are already 7-4 to the Over, even if their last one didn't quite get there. Again, the total was much higher when these teams played early in the year (237.5) and the game went Over despite terrible FT shooting from both sides and the Lakers missing 24 of 32 three-point attempts. Six of the last eight meetings have gone Over. 8* Over Lakers/Rockets

8* Under Jazz/Thunder (8:05 ET): I've admittedly been on the wrong end of a couple Jazz totals in the last week. Both games were against the Spurs, the more recent one taking place just last night. After they scored 139 points to ruin my Under last Tuesday, Utah finished w/ only 97 Sunday to thwart my Over play. (For the record, I was correct in taking the Under when they played Houston Thursday night. That was a 118-91 win). Tonight, they're in Oklahoma City to face a Thunder team that tops the league in defensive efficiency, allowing fewer than one point per possession (only team in the league that can claim that). Under is pretty easy call for me here. 

The Thunder will likely not be in a pleasant mood entering this game as they're looking to rebound from an embarrassing defeat to lowly Chicago on Friday. They gave up 114 pts to a 6-win team that ranks last in the league in offensive efficiency. A really poor 1st half is what cost them as they held the Bulls to just 44 pts after halftime. The loss was only the 4th in the L20 games for OKC, who previously had gone 13-0 SU vs. sub-.500 foes. I expect the defense to be a lot better here than it was in the 1st half vs. Chicago. The 114 pts scored by the Bulls was the most given up by OKC in any game in almost three weeks. The Bulls' 52.4% shooting was the highest percentage by any opponent in nearly four weeks. 

Utah was one of the top defensive teams in the league last year. They finished #2 in efficiency, but have slipped somewhat this year down to 11th. They are 20th in offensive efficiency, which is actually only one spot below the Thunder. Both teams also rank near the bottom of the league in three-point shooting percentage w/ OKC 28th at 31.7%. But while the Thunder are lacking on the offensive end when it comes to three-point shooting, they make up for it by defending the arc well. They allow just 32.8% shooting from distance for the year, which ranks right near the top of the league. The percentage is even lower here at home. 8* Under Jazz/Thunder

10* Over Jazz/Spurs (7:05 ET): Earlier this week, I made the mistake of playing a matchup between these two Under the total. Pretty clearly, I had underestimated just how much San Antonio has regressed this season. The play also flew in the face of the recent history between the teams as now eight of the past nine matchups have gone Over the total. While the numbers are now higher, I learned from my mistake and expect that trend to continue. The Spurs have seen the Over cash in six straight games, as well as 10 of the last 11, due in large part to the massive defensive regression. Utah hung 139 points on them Tuesday. Of course, San Antonio can score too; something that was readily apparent in a 133-120 win over the Lakers on Friday. Take the Over here.

Utah followed up its win over San Antonio by beating Houston on Thursday, 118-91. I did win w/ the Under in that game as they held the Rockets below 39% from the field. Key was forcing 22 Houston turnovers and turning them into 33 points. The most impressive thing about the win is that the Jazz did it mostly w/o Rudy Gobert, who was ejected in the 2nd quarter for arguing with the officials. After a mostly disappointing first quarter of the season, the team has now won 4 of its last 5. Now they'll look to replicate Tuesday's shooting performance against San Antonio when they were 60% overall from the field and made a season-high 20 three-pointers. Utah is 6-1 Over this season following a double digit win.

The Spurs were down 12 in the 4Q to the Lakers on Friday, but rallied back for a double digit win on the back of eight players scoring in double figures. One of them was DeMar DeRozan, who went for a season-high 36 pts. The bench also outscored the Lakers' reserves 54-26. But I still worry about this team defensively as they've slipped all the way down to 28th in efficiency, a stunning collapse and completely uncharacteristic of what we've seen during the Greg Popovich era. Only Phoenix and Cleveland are lower in defensive efficiency right now. But the Spurs aren't the only team to have regressed defensively in 2018-19. Utah was #2 last season and now #10. San Antonio is 11-3 Over this season in games where they are the underdog. 10* Over Jazz/Spurs

10* Under Raptors/Nets (7:35 ET): Toronto has the best record in the league currently at 21-5 straight up. They've lost just one time in the L10 games and it was to Denver, the team w/ the best record in the Western Conference. That defeat took place on Monday (at home), but the Raptors quickly rebounded w/ a 113-102 win over Philadelphia. Tonight, the opponent is much easier, but they have to hit the road where on average their games are a little bit lower scoring. Toronto's working on a three-game Under streak as they head to Brooklyn on Friday and I think it continues. 

The Nets lost an absolute heartbreaker Wednesday night, falling here at home to the Thunder 114-112. It's not just that they fell only two points short against one of the best teams in the league. Brooklyn led by as many as 23 points. They were outscored 39-19 in the 4th quarter w/ Russell Westbrook scoring 25 by himself. Though the Nets still covered (were 6 pt underdogs), the SU loss was their eighth in a row. I will point out that five of those have been by six points or less, so it's not as if the team is being blown out. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they're competitive again tonight. 

But this is a play on the total, so we need to talk about scoring. Brooklyn's slide coincides w/ the loss of their leading scorer, Caris LeVert, back on November 12th. The team is just 2-10 SU since. Not having LeVert is clearly affecting the team down the stretch of games as they are shooting just 39.5% in the fourth quarter their L5 games at home. Over the L5 games overall, they are averaging just over 102 PPG. Toronto has less issues scoring, but it does average several points fewer per game on the road as opposed to at home. This total is simply too high. 10* Under Raptors/Nets

8* Under Rockets/Jazz (10:35 ET): Two Western Conference teams that are desperate for a win face off tonight in the second game of the TNT doubleheader. Both Houston and Utah are surprisingly below .500 as we've passed the quarter pole of this season. I think it's safe to call them the two biggest disappointments in the league right now, at least given preseason expectations. When they last met, it was a very low-scoring affair w/ the Jazz winning 100-89 on the road. I think we're in store for another relatively low-scoring game tonight, maybe not quite as low-scoring as the first go-around, but the Under is still the play here.

I played both of these teams Under the total in their last games. With Houston, it worked out well. They were held to 91 points, including just 29 in the second half, in a loss to Minnesota. That result snapped the Rockets' eight-game Over streak. Now certainly this team is fully capable of producing far more than 29 points in a half. But for tonight, I expect a more even distribution of scoring across the two halves. They had 62 pts in the 1H vs. Minnesota Monday night and that's about as unlikely to be repeated here as the 29 pt 2H. Also in handicapping this rematch, one thing that's different about the Rockets from the last time they faced Utah is no Carmelo Anthony (thank goodness for that!). 

Playing Utah Under the total on Tuesday did not work out so well for me. They blistered the suddenly defensively incompetent Spurs for 139 points on 60.7% shooting. Perhaps more impressive is that the Jazz also shot better than 60% from three-point range in the contest, making a season-high 20 three-pointers! They aren't likely to repeat that performance though as for the season, the team shoots 46.4% overall and 33.8% from 3-pt range. Those aren't terrible numbers, just pretty average. I expect the three-point shooting in particular to decrease here, both in terms of percentage and volume. While Utah may not be as stout defensively this year compared to 2017-18, they certainly held Houston in check the first time. It's shocking to see the Jazz only 3-6 SU at home this year and perhaps almost as surprising that the Over is 8-1 in those games. But Houston is 24-11 Under the L35 times it has been an underdog, which isn't often. 8* Under Rockets/Jazz 

8* Over Spurs/Lakers (10:35 ET): Well, it was a bad read last night (by me) w/ the Under on Spurs-Jazz. Clearly, San Antonio's defense has regressed far more than anyone could have imagined. It was their third time giving up 130+ points in the last six games. (By the way, they also topped 130 themselves once during that stretch). Bottom line is that a team who for so long was a mainstay at the top of the defensive efficiency ratings, is no longer any good on that end of the floor. Tonight, they face a Lakers team that has gone Under in its last eight game as well as 14 out of its last 16. A matchup with the Spurs is just the recipe to change that. Take the Over here.

After a slow start (should have been expected), LeBron has the Lakers playing pretty well of late. The team has won three straight, all by double digits and all at home. They're actually up to fifth in the Western Conference right now. Tonight's spread might be an overlay as the only teams they've been asked to lay more points to in a game this season are Atlanta and Phoenix. Also, the Lakers are 0-2 against the Spurs this year w/ those two losses coming by a total of five points. The first one was an absolute shootout w/ the Spurs winning 143-142 in overtime (LeBron missed two free throws late). The rematch, which took place in San Antonio, was a lower-scoring affair w/ SA prevailing 110-106. 

The total for this game is a lot lower than it was for the second meeting. That's probably because of the recent rash of Lakers' Unders. But San Antonio is 8-1 Over its last nine games and giving up a ton of points on the road this year. The Lakers are 14-6 SU since that first loss to the Spurs and should have a productive offensive night here. They scored 120 Sunday vs. a lousy Phoenix team. Note they were w/o third leading scorer Brandon Ingram for both previous matchups vs. the Spurs. The fact that San Antonio is in the second night of a back to back won't mean much here as HC Greg Popovich pulled his top two scorers - DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge in the 3Q last night. It was only two games ago that the Spurs had a historically great shooting night, becoming the 1st team in 23 years to shoot better than 60% overall, 70% from three-point range and 90% from the FT line. The Over is 9-3 when they are an underdog this season. 8* Over Spurs/Lakers

10* Under Spurs/Jazz (9:05 ET): These teams played four times last year and the Over hit in three of the games. But those were low totals, all sub-200 pts, a range you're probably not going to see very much this season. Alas, it's a much higher total this go around for the Spurs & Jazz, which also makes sense when you consider how both teams have regressed defensively. Last year, these teams were 2nd (Jazz) and 4th (Spurs) in defensive efficiency. This year, they've slipped to 13th and 27th respectively. The Over has hit in seven of San Antonio's last eight games as they've regressed to a shocking degree. This all being said, I still think tonight's number is too high. Take the Under.

After giving up 128 or more points three times in a four-game stretch, it was time for the Spurs to give their opponents a taste of their own medicine as they dropped 131 in a win over Portland on Sunday. They got a season-high 36 points from DeMar DeRozan and shot a blistering 60.2% from the floor overall. Even more ridiculous is how prolific they were from three-point range. They attempted only 15 shots from behind the arc, but made 11 of them! Needless to say, they probably won't shoot that high of a percentage from distance in any other game the rest of this season. Something else that happened in that game is the teams combined to go 36 of 38 from the free throw line. That's also highly irregular in today's NBA. Bottom line is that all the offensive numbers from the Spurs' last game are due to drop severely. It was the 1st time since 1995 that a team shot 60% overall, 70% from 3-pt range & 90% from the FT line. Overall, their recent numbers - both offensively and defensively - are way out of whack. 

I think it's fair to say that Utah has been a giant disappointment so far this year. With San Antonio, you knew they'd fall off some w/ the entire core group of players from the last few years "vacating the premsis." But the Jazz came into 2018-19 w/ high hopes. From November 12th to the 26th, they were held under 100 pts six times in a nine-game stretch. That's bad. Perhaps most shocking of all is the team's 2-6 SU home record. The Over is 7-1 here, but I suspect better defense is forthcoming. The Jazz have played a ton out on the road lately, so they may still be a bit tired heading into tonight, which will affect their shooting. 10* Under Spurs/Jazz

10* Under Rockets/T'wolves (8:05 ET): Maybe Houston finally has things turned around? Things started getting better w/ the decision to put Carmelo Anthony "on ice." Melo still hasn't been traded, but it's been a clear case of "addition by subtraction," simply by making him inactive. The team rattled off five consecutive victories in mid-November before another swoon set in as they lost four in a row. But back to back blowouts (over San Antonio and Chicago) seem to have things pointed in the right direction as they're at least back to .500. They've also gotten back to scoring plenty of points, something we became accustomed to seeing throughout last season when they were neck & neck w/ Golden State for the top offensive team in the league.

Minnesota had its own "problem child" to start the season, that being Jimmy Butler, but he's been traded (to Philadelphia) and now they too are playing better. They did lose 118-109 to Boston on Saturday, but before that they'd won and covered four straight. Defense was key to their turnaround as they held three of the four opponents under 100 points, something you don't see very often in today's NBA. The loss to Boston snapped a streak of nine consecutive games holding the opponent below 43% shooting. The Celtics shot (44) and made (17) a lot of three-pointers in that game. It also hurt the T'wolves that Boston was 21 of 21 from the free-throw line. James Harden & the Rockets are certainly capable of putting up similar numbers, but I don't think they'll be quite as prolific as the C's were Saturday night. 

This is a play on the total, so let's start looking at that. Houston has gone Over in eight straight games. They've topped 130 pts three times during that stretch, but they shouldn't approach that number given how Minnesota has been defensively of late. The T'wolves have gone Over in B2B games, but prior to that the Under had hit in seven straight games and 12 of the last 13. So something will have to give here. Minnesota also made a ton of FT's (26) in the last game and I don't see that getting repeated here. The Under is 12-4 for them when facing a team that gives up 106 or more PPG this season. It's also 11-5 when the O/U line is 220 points or higher. 10* Under Rockets/T'wolves

8* Over Lakers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): It didn't take long for this O/U line to start moving. For good reason too; I expect this to be a high-scoring game. Now both teams have gone Under in each of their last four games respectively. For the Lakers, the Under is 10-2 the last 12 games. But when you look at the O/U line from the last time these teams played, you can gain a real "appreciation" for how much the oddsmakers have overadjusted here. That previous O/U line either closed at 234.5/235 depending on your book. If you bet the total, the closing number definitely mattered as the final score was 121-114, in favor of the the Lakers. But for the purposes of tonight's total, all you need to know is that final score would make for an easy winner on the Over. That's the way I go here. 

The Lakers have won 9 of 12 games since Halloween, but lost their last time out, 108-104 to Orlando. That was a Sunday afternoon home game and LA's second loss to the Magic in just over a week's time. The Lakers did not shoot poorly per se against the Magic on Sunday, but did finish well below their season average of 114.2 PPG. Defensively, they'd held their previous three opponents all to 40% or worse from the field, before allowing Orlando to shoot 45%. They re allowing 112.7 PPG on the year. Without PG Rajon Rondo (out indefinitely), the Lakers have turned the ball over a total of 41 times in the L2 games. They had no problems shooting against Denver the last time they met, sinking exactly 50% of their shots in the 7-point win.

Denver also shot exactly 50% from the floor in that last meeting. In fact, they took (92) and made (46) the exact same numbers as the Lakers! The difference was that the Nuggets only made 6 of 23 three-point attempts (26.1%) while LA was a more respectable 10 of 29. Denver averages 10 makes per game from behind the arc and you can also expect them to shoot better overall at home where they average 113.8 PPG on 48.1% shooting. What I'm not sold on here is them repeating the kind of defensive efforts we've seen in the last two games where they allowed 87 and 98 pts in wins over the Magic and Thunder. Denver is 50-28 Over the L78 times it has faced a team averaging at least 106 PPG (Lakers average 114.2). The Lakers are 3-1 Over as underdogs this season. 8* Over Lakers/Nuggets

10* Over Magic/Warriors (10:35 ET): Golden State seems to have righted the ship, although a one-point win over Sacramento on Saturday was hardly inspiring. The Dubs have now covered only one of their last eight games as they continue to try to overcome the absences of both Steph Curry and Draymond Green. Tonight they face an Orlando team that is much improved this year, evident by the fact the Magic come in on a 5-1 ATS hot streak (4-2 straight up). As has been the case w/ most recent Warriors' lines, this one looks short, but you obviously have to factor in the Curry and Green injuries. I also happen to think the O/U line here is too low and that's where the value is in on Monday night's matchup. Take the Over. 

Orlando played yesterday and pulled out an upset in LA, beating the Lakers 108-104 as 7.5-pt underdogs. The Magic had two 30+ point quarters in the win, though they by no means shot the ball particularly well. We do have to be cognizant here of the fact that Orlando only shoots 43.5% from the floor on the road. But the Over is 3-1 this season when the team is playing the second night of a back to back. Defensively, I expect them to struggle tonight. Golden State is still #2 in the league in offensive efficiency w/ both Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson both guaranteed to play. There's also a chance Green could return (listed as "day to day"). 

Even with Curry and Green missing time, the Warriors are still shooting nearly 50% for the season and average 116 PPG. Durant has caught fire in the last two games, scoring 76 pts on 55% overall shooting. Thompson went for 62 points, making nine three-pointers total. Both, particularly Durant, had really struggled from three-point range during the first and only four-game losing streak of the Steve Kerr era. Something not really talked about is the Warriors have regressed defensively this year. Hidden in the midst of all the scoring the last several years is the fact they usually rank near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. This year, they've slipped to 15th, one spot ahead of Orlando. 10* Over Magic/Warriors

10* Over Suns/Pistons (4:05 ET): I've had quite a bit of success playing the Over in Suns games this week. I'm 2-0 w/ winners on Monday (in Philly) and Wednesday (in Chicago). Monday's game in Philly saw them lose 119-114 (total was 219.5) and Wednesday in Chicago was another loss (124-116) where the game flew past the O/U line (217.5). I did not play the game Friday as the team picked up a shocking 116-114 win in Milwaukee, as 13.5-pt underdogs. That game did not go Over either, just falling short of the 232.5 pt total. But it certainly still featured plenty of scoring. Phoenix will wrap up its four-game road trip against the Eastern Conference Sunday afternoon in Detroit and the O/U line is back where I like it. Take the Over on this one. 

The Pistons are coming off a home and home w/ the Rockets where the team playing host won both games. Detroit covered the game in Houston, losing by only two, then pulled an upset on Friday. The game in the Motor City went into overtime, which I'm still a little "sore" about as that cost me what would have been an easy winner on the Under. The game was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation (total closed 216.5), but the teams combined to score 31 points in the extra five minutes. For the Pistons, that upset was right in line w/ other recent performances as the team is now 5-2 SU over its L7 games. They're 6-1 ATS in that same stretch, covering four straight. 

When making the case for the Over in Phoenix games earlier this week, I noted the Suns were dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. They've since moved up a spot, to 29th, passing Cleveland. But they are still obviously very bad at that end of the floor. They've allowed an average of 119 PPG on the current road trip. Detroit has little trouble scoring anyway (111.2 PPG), so they should put up a lot of points tonight. At the same time, they're not so great defensively either, giving up an average of over 110 PPG. The Suns came into this season on a 27-8 Over run when scoring 115+ points their previous games. All three games on this road trip have seen at least 230 points scored while Detroit games are averaging 222.3 PPG. 10* Over Suns/Pistons

8* Under Jazz/Lakers (10:35 ET): What in the world has gone wrong w/ Utah? This is a troubled team right now. Wednesday night saw them lose outright at home (as 9.5-pt favorites) to Sacramento. That loss comes on the heels of a 2-3 SU road trip where they twice got their doors blown off, once by 27 at Indiana and the other time by 50 (!) at Dallas. In no way does this currently resemble the squad many thought would emerge as the #2 team in the Western Conference (behind Golden State) this year. Currently, they're 8-10 SU and giving up over 109 PPG on the season. On offense, they've averaged just 95.4 points over the last five games.

The Lakers are off somewhat of an emotional win as LeBron returned to Cleveland and led his new team to a 109-105 victory. They didn't cover, which made me happy as I was on the Cavs. In fact, Cleveland (a 9.5-pt dog) led outright most of the way, not conceding the lead until there was just over a minute left in the game. The Lakers haven't been a great team to bet on (just 6-11 ATS), which isn't surprising as you had to figure they've be overvalued due to the expectations of James coming on boad. I thought the expectation that the Lakers would be an automatic playoff team in the loaded West was a bit premature. But this team is playing pretty well right now, having won six of its last seven.

These teams are tied in defensive efficiency, ranking 19th. That's not all that impressive, but I look for this to be a bit of a low-scoring game. Eight of the Lakers last 10 games have stayed Under the total. Oddsmakers are still scrambling some after the scoring "explosion" we saw league-wide early in the season. So we're still able to get some O/U lines higher than they ought to be. This is one of them. The Lakers' defense has actually been much better of late, plus Utah has failed to score even 100 pts in four of its last six games. Utah was a top defensive team LY and I suspect we'll start to see their numbers at that end of the floor start to improve as well. 8* Under Jazz/Lakers

10* Under Rockets/Pistons (7:05 ET): These teams just played Wednesday in Houston. The Rockets won 126-124, shooting 55.6 percent from the field. Though it ended up being a two-point game, Houston actually led by much more w/ just five minutes to go. The lead was 14 pts to be exact. The key to Detroit's ultimately failed comeback was top Rockets' defender P.J. Tucker getting ejected (two techs). With Tucker gone from the game, Blake Griffin went off, making five three-pointers. Overall, the Pistons scored 41 pts in the 4th quarter. I don't see that happening again nor do I see Houston shooting as well on the road. Tucker should play the full game this time and thus I see this second game of a home & home staying Under. 

To the shock of no one, Houston has improved dramatically since ridding itself of Carmelo Anthony. Melo is still on the roster, but not playing and things have taken a positive turn since that decision was made. Wednesday was the Rockets' fifth win in a row and eighth in the L10 games. After shockingly getting held under 100 pts six times in the first 11 games, the team has averaged 117.8 points over its last five games. That number coming on better than 50% shooting. While an offensive uptick was to expected, especially w/o Anthony, I don't think the Rockets will be able to sustain the production of the L5 games. They also only average 103.4 PPG on the road. 

Detroit should bounce back defensively in this one as the Under is 21-8 for them the L3 seasons if they allowed 115+ points the L3 games. This is a top 10 team in the league in defensive efficiency right now. As far as Houston's overall shooting percentage for the year, it's just 43.9%. The Pistons aren't exactly a great shooting team either at 43.3% for the year. Over the L3 seasons, the team is also 20-9 Under after scoring 115+ points. The teams combined to make 29 of 72 three-point attempts on Wednesday, which is a high percentage. Not surprisingly, the O/U line has been set a few points higher for tonight. That leads to some value and like I said, I'm on the Under. 10* Under Rockets/Pistons 

10* Over Suns/Bulls (8:05 ET): We have two very bad teams playing here, the night before Thanksgiving, so I look for defense to be optional in this one. Offensively, the Bulls (30th) and Suns (28th) might both rank in the bottom three in the league in efficiency. But they also both rank near the bottom in defensive efficiency w/ the Suns coming in dead last in that department. Certainly, Chicago is going to do better offensively in this game than they did Saturday vs. Toronto when they scored only 83 points on 34.9% shooting. Both numbers were season-lows. If you recall, my last NBA O/U play was an Over on Phoenix (at Philadelphia) and that game saw 233 total pts scored. More of the same tonight. Play on the Over. 

That Over play w/ Phoenix was their last game. It was also the fifth time in the last six games they allowed 110 or more points. Philly had 62 pts after halftime. The Suns are one of three teams in the league yet to win a road game (Cleveland and Minnesota are the others) and I don't think that there's any denying that this is the worst team in the entire Western Conference. Their record is just 3-13 overall and in their seven road losses they've given up an average of 118.9 points per game. Chicago might be coming off its worst offensive game of the season, but this could end up being one of the best. 

The Bulls have not shot the ball well of late. Their field goal percentages in the last four games are: 39.3%, 39.3%, 43.6% and 34.9%. Incredibly, they've scored more than 100 points only once in the last six games. But tonight could be a breakout performance of sorts. They just got done with a stretch of facing the three top teams in East - Milwaukee, Boston and Toronto - all in a row. Those three are all top five in the league in defensive efficiency. They go from that to facing the league's worst defensive team. Key here is that leading scorer Zach LaVine (25.3 PPG) is set to return to the lineup after missing the Toronto game w/ an illness. LaVine's absence at least partially explains the offensive ineptitude in that game. The Bulls are 7-3 Over the L3 seasons after scoring 85 pts or less the previous game. 10* Over Suns/Bulls

10* Over Suns/76ers (7:05 ET): Jimmy Butler's first game in a Philadelphia uniform probably should have been a win, but the Sixers gave it away late to Orlando and lost 111-106. But they're 2-0 since including a 122-119 OT win over Charlotte on Saturday that saw Butler hit the game-winner (a 33 foot three-pointer). Despite scoring 122 points, the Sixers didn't shoot the ball all that well, making only 42% of their field goal attempts. But they should no problem scoring tonight against a Suns team that ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. The potential for a blowout is definitely there tonight, but I think Over is the better call here as BOTH teams should score plenty.

Since winning their season opener by 21 points (over Dallas), Phoenix has lost 12 of 14 in what promises to be another long season for this troubled franchise. Last Wednesday, they did pull an upset over San Antonio, 116-96, but followed that up by losing by 10 to Oklahoma City two days later. Those last two games have seen the Suns give up fewer points than usual (96, 110), but both were also at home. On the road, they are giving up 118.8 PPG, a big reason why they've yet to win a game outside of Phoenix. Here, they're facing a team that's unbeaten at home (8-0) and averaging 117.2 PPG in this building. 

Butler obviously gives the 76ers the "go-to" scorer that they previous lacked. In the three games since coming over from Minnesota, he's averaged just 19.0 PPG, but I certainly expect that average to go up moving forward. He's shot 57.9% from the floor as a Sixer. As I've hit on multiple times already, the Sixers should have no problems scoring in this game. The Suns have allowed at least 117 points in every road game this season. The only issue here is whether or not Phoenix will be able to score enough to help this one get Over. The one time Philadelphia was a double digit home favorite this year, the game easily went Over. The Over is also 5-1 in the L6 meetings between these two and 5-1 in the Sixers' last six games overall. 10* Over Suns/76ers

10* Over Nets/Wizards (7:05 ET): We saw just how much Brooklyn is going to miss leading scorer Caris LaVert (out indefinitely) in their 120-107 loss to Miami on Tuesday. For a second straight game, the team struggled to shoot (40.2 FG%) and reserve Spencer Dinwiddie actually ended up being their leading scorer w/ 18 points in 29 minutes. However, defense has been the bigger concern for the Nets lately as they've allowed three straight teams to shoot 52.4% or better from the floor and given up 116, 120 and 120 points. I see the struggles on that end of the floor continuing tonight against a Washington side that has averaged 117.3 PPG during a three-game win streak. Take the Over in this one. 

The Wizards started the season out very poorly by losing 9 of their first 11 games. But they've rebounded over the six days to go 3-0, including what was - easily - their best performance to date on Wednesday. Granted, it was against lowly Cleveland (who was in a back to back), but they won by 24. Thanks to a 41-point 1st quarter, the Wiz never trailed. Getting 29 points off 24 Cavaliers turnovers certainly helped as did making 13 of 40 three-point attempts. If there is one area where I expect Washington to regress though, it's defensively. Cleveland's 95 points tied a season-low for a Wizards' opponent and it can't be understated just how undermanned the Cavs were in the second night of a back to back (off a rare win no less). 

Though Wednesday marked Washington's highest scoring half of the season (73 points), they didn't receive much from John Wall, who finished the game w/ a season-low eight points in 21 minutes. He was just 3 of 10 shooting. I would expect Wall to play better tonight and thus we won't see much dropoff from the Wizards offensively. The key here is can Brooklyn find scoring options w/o LaVert? Considering Washington isn't very good defensively (26th in efficiency), they should have their chances. Six Nets players did finish in double figures in the loss to Miami. Brooklyn is 24th in defensive efficiency, so this very much could turn into an "up and down" type game. 10* Over Nets/Wizards

10* Under Spurs/Kings (10:05 ET): The Western Conference is just LOADED this season w/ only a handful of teams aware that they are not playoff contenders. Sacramento was supposed to be among those "building for the future," but even they have surprisingly started 7-6 SU despite being an underdog in all but one game. Meanwhile, it's an interesting year in San Antonio as this is the first time in about 20 seasons where the Spurs are NOT projected to be Conference Title contenders (hence the short line for this matchup). Thanks to a lot of high totals, the Kings have been going Under with more regularity of late. This O/U line isn't quite as high, but I believe the trend will continue against a Spurs team that still knows how to play defense. 

Case in point; the Spurs just held the Rockets to 89 points in a key win Saturday night. Now the Rockets may not be what they were a season ago, but that's still a pretty impressive number to hold ANY opponent to, in this day and age. The Spurs held Miami to just 95 pts last Wednesday, but the only thing there is they lost that game by six points. With virtually the entire core of the last several seasons gone, San Antonio is probably going to struggle to score this season. They also continue to play at a very slow pace (tied for 26th) under HC Greg Popovich. But they'll continue to lean on that defensive play which has limited four of the last five points to 95 pts or fewer. 

Sacramento has had no luck through the years against San Antonio, losing the last 14 meetings. What's pretty remarkable about that is they have NEVER once topped 105 pts in the 14-game losing skid. It's certainly not a good sign that they scored only 85 pts Saturday night against a Lakers team not exactly known for its defense and shot just 34.8% from the floor. I don't think for a second that the Kings will be able to maintain a .500 record for very long, but if there is one positive development it's them ranking middle of the pack in defensive efficiency after spending years near the bottom of the league in that category. They have held five of their last nine opponents below 42% shooting. The Under is 5-1 so far in Sacramento home games. 10* Under Spurs/Kings.

8* Over Nets/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Denver is back home, off just its second loss of the season. It was a shockingly low-scoring game, even w/ Memphis being involved, as they fell 89-87 Wednesday night. As you can tell from that final score, it was not a good shooting night, but especially for Denver as they finished w/ a 39.0 FG%. That was their lowest percentage for any game since the season opener and it was obviously their lowest scoring game to date. But upon this return home, we should see an automatic increase in scoring from their side as they average 113 PPG on 47% shooting. It also helps that the team they're facing tonight isn't exactly known as a defensive stalwart. Take the Over. 

Now Brooklyn is off B2B strong defensive performances, which is why they won both games. They held Philadelphia to just 97 points and then Phoenix to only 82 on 34.6% shooting. But the latter performance in particular will be almost impossible to duplicate as it came against such a bad team. In fact, the their two best defensive performances of the season came against possibly the two worst teams in the league (Cleveland, Phoenix). This opponent is probably a top five team in the league. The Nets are still allowing over 108 PPG for the year while scoring over 109 per game themselves. They have scored 120 or more in two of the past four games. 

This will actually be the first time in over a year that these teams have played as both meetings last year came quite early in the season. Interestingly enough, despite the "explosion" of scoring we've seen in the NBA this year, the O/U lines for LY's games were far higher than where this one is set at. Denver scored only 17 points in the 4Q vs. Memphis and Nikola Jokic took just ONE shot the entire game. Neither of those things will happen again here, I assure you. It's pretty surprising that the Nuggets are near the bottom of the league in number of possessions per game, but that shouldn't continue. The Over is 6-2 for Brooklyn the L3 seasons after holding their previous opponent under 90 points. The Over is 46-24 for Denver when facing a team that both scores and allows more than 106 PPG. 8* Over Nets/Nuggets

10* Over Sixers/Pacers (8:05 ET): In the Eastern Conference right now, you obviously have two very hot teams in Toronto and Milwaukee. Boston will obviously be a contender for the top spot as well. Then there are these two teams, probably the only other potential candidates for a top four spot. Philadelphia is having some major problems on the road however, as they're 0-5 SU away from home after taking a 25-point loss to Brooklyn in their last game. Indiana is also off a loss, by just four points at home, to Houston. But what I'm focused on here is the poor offensive performance each team had in their previous games. I look for those to be rectified this evening and for this nationally televised affair to go Over the total. 

The Sixers were just dreadful Sunday in Brooklyn, turning it over 28 times (a league-high for the season) and shooting just 20% from three-point range. There's virtually no way we see anything close to a duplication of those numbers tonight. Note it was Philly's second lowest scoring game of the season, the benchmark still being the season opener in Boston. They've scored at least 105 pts in every other game. You would have to go all the way back to October 23rd to find the ONLY time the Sixers have shot 50% in a game this seaosn. But you also have to factor in just how bad this team has been defensively on the road. Earlier I mentioned that they are still winless (0-5 SU) away from home. Well, a big reason for that is they are giving up 122.4 PPG in those five losses. 

Indiana has gone Under in five straight games and was held under 100 pts for just the third time this season its last time out. Certainly, few would have expected a final score of 98-94 for a matchup with Houston. The Pacers have been good defensively (7th in efficiency), especially at home where they are giving up just 99.4 PPG. But I look for a bit of different story to unfold tonight, obviously. Indiana missed 10 FT's in the four-point loss to Houston Monday. This was one of the league's better FT shooting teams last year, so they definitely "left some points" at the line. In their last five games, the Pacers are averaging only 100.6 PPG, but I look for that number to go way up after tonight's matchup. 10* Over Sixers/Pacers 

8* Under Kings/Bucks (3:30 ET): I almost had to do a "double take" when I looked at the matchup, but these teams have gone Over in the L11 meetings against one another. But that trend comes w/ a pretty important caveat as none of those eleven O/U lines have been higher than 213.5 points. A lot has changed - for both teams - in the last year, but we were looking at a pair of sub-200 pt totals for the two 2017-18 meetings. Here, we've got one of the highest totals set so far this season and I think it provides an excellent opportunity to play the Under. Scoring in Sacramento games has been pretty crazy this season, but it's due to subside some moving forward. 

Kings' games are averaging an insane 236.4 PPG so far, but it would seem that number can only come DOWN. Perhaps more shocking is the fact the team has won and covered five straight games. Win streaks such as this are quite uncommon in California's capital city. Note that I don't expect the Kings to come anywhere close to the 146 points they scored Thursday in Atlanta. They shot 54.1% for the game, a percentage that will be difficult to match. Something akin to the 46-pt third quarter they delivered against the Hawks is almost a lock not to be repeated as Sacramento had been averaging "just" 110.8 PPG during the first four wins of the current streak. They had that through three quarters Thursday. It's an offensive performance that's simply unlikely to be repeated. 

Meanwhile, the Bucks are due for some defensive improvement after suffering their 1st loss of the year Thursday in Boston. They allowed the Celtics to make 24 three-pointers, a stunning departure from the kind of defense we'd seen Mike Budenholzer's team play during its 7-0 SU start. They still rank second in the league in defensive 3-point percentage (31.5%) as well as overall defensive efficiency. Here at home, Milwaukee is limiting teams to 40% shooting overall, including just 27% from three-point range. This being an afternoon game, don't be surprised by a somewhat "sleepy" start from both teams offensively (even though we just set the clocks back!). 8* Under Kings/Bucks

10* Over Knicks/Mavs (8:35 ET): The O/U line itself has been huge in determining whether or not Mavericks games have Over or Under this year. Obviously, that's the case for any team and basically why an O/U line exists! But looking at the O/U lines for Mavs' games, a pretty clear pattern emerges. The Under is 3-0 when the O/U line is 229 pts or higher. But the Over is 4-0 at 220.5 or lower. Here, we find them coming off an Under and a failed comeback attempt against the Lakers Wednesday night. They lost 114-113, still a pretty high scoring game by an objective standard, but not high enough to top the huge 234-pt total that was set. So far, only one Mavs game has seen less than 221 total pts scored. I'll go w/ the Over here. 

The Knicks have seen five of their last seven games stay Under the total, but more concerning to them is the fact they've dropped six of those seven games. Their most recent loss came Wednesday night, 107-101 to Indiana, a game where they blew a 4th quarter lead. Lucky for them that Dallas is on a five-game losing streak, so somebody is going to have to pick up a win here. My guess is that we see a high-scoring game, which is often the case when two bad teams meet up. Neither team is playing much defense in the early going, especially Dallas, who is giving up 116.6 PPG on nearly 50% shooting. They've allowed five different opponents to shoot 51% or better. The Knicks just let the Pacers shoot 54.2% from the field and they are giving up 110.2 PPG on the year. 

Now neither team has shot the ball particularly well itself, but Dallas has averaged 119.7 points in three home games. The Knicks have yet to win on the road (0-3) but still average a respectable 106 PPG, a number they should top tonight. One bad offensive performance (87 pts at Miami) is still heavily skewing their overall numbers. Other than that one game, both teams have scored at least 100 in every game. The fewest number of points Dallas has given up in any game this year is 109. 10* Over Knicks/Mavs

10* Under Nuggets/Cavs (7:05 ET): This is a terrible spot for Denver, who had to go to overtime last night to beat Chicago. They're 6-1 SU and looking every bit the Western Conference contender I thought they'd be, but last night showed that they can struggle against the league's weaker teams. So - by no means - will tonight's game in Cleveland be easy. However, what I'm looking at here is the total. Even though last night's game went to overtime, the Under still cashed. The Under is now 5-2 in all Nuggets' games this season, so while Cleveland is pretty terrible defensively, I think this number is simply too high Thursday night. Take the Under.

The Cavs scored a season-high 136 points Tuesday in their first win of the season. They shot 50% from the field, their first time doing so all year. But it was against the lowly Hawks. Defense continues to be an issue for the Cavs, who are still trying to figure things out under an interim coach (Larry Drew) as Ty Lue was fired on Sunday. Fortunately for the Cavs, Denver is going to come in tired tonight and likely not be at their most prolific offensively. Last night, the Nuggets didn't even score 100 pts in regulation and that was when rested and facing a Bulls team that was off an all-time bad defensive performance vs. Golden State. 

Quietly, Denver is 4th in the league in points allowed at just 103.9 per game. So that's why we can't write their chances off completely tonight, despite being in this terrible spot. That defense should not be challenged much by a Cleveland team that is w/o Kevin Love and thus lacks a true "go-to" scorer. Yes, seven Cavaliers reached double figures in the win over Atlanta, but I would not look for that to happen again as the Nuggets are highly unlikely to commit 22 turnovers like the Hawks did. The Cavs are 26th in the league in assists per game and like I said earlier; they hadn't shot 50% or better in any game until Tuesday. 10* Under Nuggets/Cavs

8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): The last time these teams played was October 21st. It was also the first sign Cleveland was potentially headed for a second post-LeBron disaster. They lost the game 133-111 (to the Hawks!) and remain winless on the season as they're 0-6 SU entering tonight's rematch. Over the weekend, they fired HC Ty Lue, a sign that management may not have a clue as to how bad this team truly is. Now they are looking at being w/o Kevin Love for the next month. The Cavs' defense has been beyond horrendous so far, not only in conceding 133 pts to the Hawks in the last meeting, but also allowing Indiana to shoot 64% from the field in a 119-107 loss on Saturday. Despite that, I'm looking for this game to stay Under the total.

Atlanta may have torched Cleveland for 133 nine days ago, but they've scored just 177 pts total the L2 games. One of those saw me fade them, that being Saturday night's outright loss to Chicago. There, they shot a woeful 32.1% from the field. They weren't much better last night in a 113-92 loss at Philadelphia, shooting only 37.2%. That game was basically decided in the 3Q when the Sixers outscored them 31-13. The Hawks also didn't help themselves by going just 8 of 37 from three-point range and missing seven of 21 free throw attempts. If there has been one shining light of late for this team, it's been the defense as they've held three straight opponents below 44.0% from the field. All three games have gone Under. The Under is 25-11 for Atlanta when coming off 3+ consecutive Unders. 

Now the Over has cashed the last NINE times these teams have met. Interestingly enough, the O/U line here is lower than what it was for the first matchup. While the Over did cash there, Atlanta is 11-5 Under the L16x its played a game w/ a OU line north of 220. That includes a 3-1 mark this season, the 1st game vs. the Cavs being the exception. I obviously don't see the Hawks being as prolific offensively tonight as they were in that first visit when they made a franchise record 22 three-pointers. At the same time, without Love (and really any viable scoring options), Cleveland is really going to struggle to put the ball in the basket the next several games. 8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers 

10* Under Blazers/Magic (7:05 ET): Last night may have been the "tipping point" I spoke of in my NBA analysis for yesterday. I had an Under (Pacers/Spurs) and was sure to note how the incredible amount of scoring we'd seen in the early part of the NBA season was eventually due to subside. The result of my Under play might vary for some, but the bottom line is that 8 of the 11 games stayed Under. I'm not saying that to abandon the Over strategy entirely moving forward, but blindly betting Overs is probably already a thing of the past. Tonight, I've found another game I like to stay Under the total. 

Portland is one of those teams that has seen every game go Over thus far. Even after last night's run of Unders, there are still three others (Lakers, Milwaukee, Washington) that have yet to experience an Under. No team has been able to make it to 5 straight Overs to open the year yet. I don't think the Blazers will either as their scoring average of 124.3 PPG is bound to subside and their defensive numbers (117.3 PPG allowed) are bound to improve. Believe it or not, but they've actually held their last two opponents to a field goal percentage below 42%. They only shot 39.8% themselves Monday vs. Washington, which speaks to the number of possessions in that game. Also, when looking at that final score (125-124), note the game went into overtime. Tonight also marks the first time Portland has had to play on the road. Last year, their scoring average did dip some on the road, which is really not a surprise. 

Orlando is a team that hasn't been any good since Dwight Howard left town in 2012. With LeBron James taking his talents to the Western Conference for the first time, the Magic are hoping they can break though this season in a pretty weak Eastern Conference. So far, they are 2-2 SU and hold a shocking 93-90 win in Boston as 11-pt underdogs. That's the kind of final score I'd love to see here tonight, though it may not be realistic. But, Orlando has topped 105 pts in only one of its four games so far, which I'd say is pretty significant. Both meetings w/ the Blazers LY stayed Under w/ neither side scoring 100 points either time. 10* Under Blazers/Magic

10* Under Pacers/Spurs (8:35 ET): At some point, we will reach a "tipping point" of sorts w/ the scoring explosion that is currently ongoing in the NBA. Perhaps it was last night when the Clippers-Pelicans game (where the total was bet as high as 238.5) stayed comfortably Under w/ a final score of 116-109. That was bad news for me as I chose the Over. While I'll certainly be looking to go Over in many more future games this season, tonight I've found a game where it's likely that that Under will cash. Ironically, it features a team that was a part of my only previous Under bet this season, Indiana. I had the Under in their season opener vs. Memphis, a game where they allowed only 83 points. Tonight they play the Spurs and I expect a (relatively) low-scoring affair. 

San Antonio came into this season with more question marks than any other season in the past 20 years. Many do NOT even consider this a likely playoff team in the Western Conference as the core of the team was gutted in the offseason. They still have Greg Popovich coaching though and have started 2-1. That includes a wild 143-142 win over the Lakers Monday night that went to overtime. The Spurs were actually down six in the final minute of OT before rallying and then getting a gift when LeBron James missed two free throws. Obviously, I'm not looking for anywhere near that kind of offensive performance - from either side - here tonight. Note the Spurs shot just 42.5% from the floor in their first two games. The Under is 10-4 for the Spurs following a 130+ pt effort the previous game. 

Indiana scored only 91 pts in its last game, which was a loss at Minnesota. That was after a 132-point effort against Brooklyn on Saturday. But while the Pacers are averaging 121.5 points in their two home games, they are averaging just 96 in the two road games. The respective shooting percentages are drastically different as well. Both coaches were critical of their team's defense in the last game, so I expect that to be the point of emphasis for tonight. Both meetings last year between these teams were very low-scoring w/ just 191 and 180 total points scored. 10* Under Pacers/Spurs

8* Over Clippers/Pelicans (8:05 ET): I'll look for the NBA's scoring explosion to continue Tuesday night w/ one of the teams most responsible for it. New Orleans has scored 131 and 149 points in two blowout wins. As a result, we have the highest posted total yet for any NBA game this season. They are hosting the Clippers, whose own scoring has increased w/ each passing game. They scored a season-high 115 in an upset win over the Rockets Sunday night. That moved them to 2-1 SU, though all three games were played at home. I'm not about to jump in front of this Pelicans' scoring train, so Over is the play.

The Pelicans wasted no time turning heads as they rocked Houston 131-112 in the season opener. That was in Houston, by the way. New Orleans scored 30 or more points in every quarter and was led by Anthony Davis' 32 points and 16 rebounds. Nikola Mirotic added 30 and the team shot 53% overall. It was even more of an offensive onslaught against Sacramento where they scored 149 pts, the highest scoring effort by any team this season. The Pelicans shot almost 59% in that win, including 16 of 31 from three-point range. All five starters were in double figures, led by Mirotic's 36. But lost in that impressive offensive performance was them allowing 129 points. The Clippers will get theirs too here. 

While this O/U line is high, it's not too much higher than previous Pelicans' totals. The numbers closed north of 230 for both previous games. Now for the Clippers, it is high. Their first two games, against Denver and Oklahoma City, saw them hold the opponent below 38 percent shooting. That certainly is unlikely to happen tonight. In those same two games, the Clippers didn't shoot that well either. As discussed earlier, the Pelicans defense has been such that the Clippers will score plenty in this game. Don't be afraid to bet the Over in this one as it should be a wildly exciting contest. 8* Over Clippers/Pelicans

10* Over Knicks/Bucks (8:05 ET): Half of the teams in the NBA have gone Over in all of their games so far. But the Knicks have been an exception to the "rule' w/ two of their three games staying Under. It's not that they have been terribly low-scoring affairs, though they have averaged only 103 PPG in back to back losses to Brooklyn and Boston. On the bright side, they are 3-0 ATS and getting double digits tonight in Milwaukee. But to stay perfect against the spread, they'll need to improve upon their shooting (42.4%) to keep pace w/ a Bucks team that has come firing out of the gates to average 115.5 points in two games. I had the Over in their last game, a 118-101 win over Indiana, and am going to play this one the same way. The Bucks are among the half of the league not have played a single Under so far.

Milwaukee is using the three-pointer to its full advantage under HC Mike Budenholzer and it's paying off. They went 17 of 46 from three-point range against the Pacers, certainly high volume, but it paid off. Last year, the team ranked in the bottom third from behind the arc, so this is most definitely a welcome change. I don't think it's going to subside anytime soon either as Giannis Antetokounmpo was 0 for 7 from behind the arc vs. Indiana and that's unlikely to happen again. Note the Bucks have been fast starters in their two games, scoring more than 60 pts in the first half each time. Friday vs. the Pacers, they scored 30 or more in each of the first three quarters. Speaking of fast starters, the Over is 44-23 in the first half of the season for the Bucks the L2+ seasons. 

The Knicks did score 126 pts in their season opener, a win over the Hawks, so they are capable of putting points on the board. And Milwaukee definitely is susceptible on defense. The Bucks allowed Charlotte to come back from a 20-point deficit in their first game (still won by 1 pt). The Knicks are a little short-handed right now w/o their best player (Kristaps Porzingis) and top draft pick (Kevin Knox), but still look for this team to be better offensively in 2018-19 as they have not only rid themselves of Carmelo Anthony before last season but are now free from the foolishness of Phil Jackson trying to make them play a triangle offense. 10* Over Knicks/Bucks

8* Over Hornets/Raptors (7:35 ET): Half the teams in the NBA have gone Over in all of their games thus far. You can count Toronto among them as the Raptors are 3-0 Over, in addition to also being 3-0 straight up. They've been remarkably consistent in the scoring department, finishing w/ 116, 113 and 117 points the L3 games. And they've done so despite not even really shooting the lights out (46.7 FG%). I was impressed w/ how there was no hangover the night after beating Boston as the Raptors went to Washington and scored a season-high 117 points despite playing w/o Kwahi Leonard (rest). I see no reason why the Raptors won't continue contributing to the league-wide scoring explosion tonight as they're back at home to take on the Hornets. Toronto was 3rd in the league in offensive efficiency last season while averaging 112.5 PPG and that w/o Leonard.

Charlotte has gone Over in two of its three games thus far. Ironically, both Overs finished w/ identical 113-112 final scores, however the Hornets lost one and won one. Their only game to go Under was against Memphis, one of the worst offensive teams in the league (held them to 88 points). The Hornets are off a rare close win (they have the worst record in games decided by 3 pts or less the L2 seasons), beating Miami by one on Saturday night. They are also now 3-0 ATS. Like Toronto, they too are averaging 115 PPG, having scored 112 or more in all three games. And they've done that despite relatively modest shooting (45.1 FG%). The key has been the three-point shot as they are 41.5% from behind the arc so far. They aren't going to be able to sustain that as their 49 three-pointers made through three games is a new NBA record. 

But even as the percentage drops, I expect the sheer number of three-point attempts to keep Charlotte's amount of scoring strong. They attempted 42 three-pointers against the Heat, whom they led by as many as 26 on Saturday night. The Hornets could also stand to improve their FT shooting, which currently stands at only 70%. Meanwhile, this Toronto team is deep as they have seven players in double figures w/o Leonard against Washington. The Over is 8-4 in Raptors' home games the L3 seasons when the total is 220 points or higher. The Over cashed in three of the four Charlotte-Toronto matchups last season and I don't see how this one doesn't follow suit. 8* Over Hornets/Raptors

8* Over Pacers/Bucks (8:35 ET): Both of these teams won their respective season openers, but the margins of victory were much different. Indiana rolled Memphis at home, winning 111-83. I had the Under in that game, which was a double-digit winner despite the Pacers shooting a blistering 56.6% from the field. Those concerned w/ me now looking to go Over w/ them should also consider that they held Memphis, a bad offensive team, to just 29.8% shooting. So while Indiana isn't likely to shoot the ball well as they did two nights ago, they're defensive numbers will almost certainly regress at the same time. So this one boils down to the opponent, Milwaukee, who beat Charlotte 113-112 in their season opener. Take the Over.

While the Bucks won by just one point Wednesday night, things should have been more comfortable considering they led Charlotte by as many as 20 at one point. But 21 turnovers did them no favors and allowed the Hornets to get back in the game. After scoring 93 points through three quarters, Milwaukee scored only 20 in the final 12 minutes. Led by the all-World Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks should do plenty of scoring this year. I have them projected to finish in the top four in the East, behind the obvious three of Boston, Toronto and Philadelphia. Last year's squad averaged 106.5 PPG despite getting little else beyond "The Greek Freak." They were 7th overall in offensive efficiency. 

Tonight is the opening of the Bucks' new arena, the Fiserv Forum, so it should be a strong atmosphere for a team playing under a new HC (Mike Budenholzer) as well. But the Bucks will certainly be tested more here over the course of 48 minutes than they were by Charlotte. It doesn't bode particularly well that they let the Hornets shoot 42 percent from behind the three-point arc. Also, Indiana has a strong bench, one that scored 58 points against Memphis. I look at this matchup and see a lot of points being scored. 8* Over Pacers/Bucks

10* Over Bulls/76ers (8:05 ET): Chicago is one of the last teams to open its season, doing so on Thursday against a Philly team that lost to Boston on Opening Night. The Sixers had yday off to recover from that disappointing defeat and should be ready to go here in a game they'll be heavily favored to win. I certainly expect the Sixers to score more than the 87 points they finished w/ against the Celtics, who are one of the top defensive teams in this league. The Bulls used to be one of the league's premier defensive teams, but not anymore as they finished 28th in efficiency a season ago. I'm on the Over in this one. 

The Sixers shot just 39.1% from the field Tuesday night in Boston. You're not going to win many games on the road shooting that poorly, especially against one of the league's top teams. The overall shooting was bad enough, but the Sixers specifically struggled from three-point range where they missed 21 of 26 attempts. They also didn't help themselves from the FT line, going 14 of 24. I expect across the board improvement tonight from a team that averaged 109.8 points per game last season. In three games vs. the Bulls, they were remarkably consistent, scoring 115, 115 and 116 points. I expect a number in that neighborhood tonight. 

The Bulls won just 27 games last year, their fewest in any season in over a decade. They should improve some in 2018-19, but don't kid yourself; this is NOT a playoff-caliber team. They were not good on either end of the floor last season, ranking bottom three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Defensively, they figure to be bad again. They allowed 112 PPG on the road last season. Offensively though is where the improvement might come as Zach LaVine (acquired in the Jimmy Butler trade) is healthy and consider Chicago native Jabari Parker to be the X-factor. 10* Over Bulls/76ers

8* Under Grizzlies/Pacers (7:05 ET): Memphis was not a good team last year. They lost 60 games and were outscored by 6.2 PPG. Now they weren't very healthy and that played a role in their significant decline. With upgrades at the wing and at the defensive end, I expect the Grizz to win more games this year. I don't think they'll make the playoffs in a loaded Western Conference, mind you, but an increase of 10 or so wins seems reasonable. Their problem lies at the offensive end.

Indiana won 48 games LY and was the #5 seed in the Eastern Conference. Most project them to be in the top five in the Eastern Conference again this year, but I say don't be surprised if they win fewer games. That's because they were an extraordinarily fortunate 11-2 SU in games decided by three points or less last season (3-0 in overtime). That won't be repeated and the Pacers are largely bringing the same roster back. I believe regression is inevitable, even in a weak Eastern Conference. 

For this season opener, I expect a relatively low-scoring game. Memphis was one of only two teams in the entire league NOT to average 100 PPG last year (Sacramento was the other). The Grizzlies do have Mike Conley back at PG, which is the most important "addition" from last year, but the new pieces - such as Summer League star Jaren Jackson Jr - will take time to gel. Both times these teams played last season, the game went Over. But those two games saw excellent shooting that won't be repeated here. The total is also higher than either of LY's matchups. 8* Under Grizzlies/Pacers 

10* Over Cavaliers/Warriors (9:05 ET): For the fourth consecutive year, we have the same two teams meeting in the NBA Finals. Over the year four year span of 1984-1987, the Celtics and Lakers met three times (not '86 as the Celtics met the Rockets instead), but that's the only comparable thing (in my lifetime) to what we're seeing here. Golden State has beaten Cleveland twice over the previous three Finals, winning in six games in '15 and just five last year. The Cavs won their lone NBA Title in 2016, stunning the Warriors by rallying back from a 3-1 series deficit to win in seven games. Were they to win it all this year, it would be considered an even bigger upset than two years ago, both by the odds and logic. Cleveland no longer has Kyrie Irving while GSW now has Kevin Durant. Still, it is pretty remarkable that a team w/ the best player in the world on its roster (that being LeBron James) would be this prohibitive an underdog. 

Unders reigned supreme in the Conference Finals, going 11-3 overall. Breaking it down, that was 6-1 in the Warriors' series vs. the Rockets and 5-2 for the Cavs vs. Celtics. The low-scoring games in the Western Conference Finals were particularly surprising as those were the top two offensive teams in the league matched up. Oddsmakers continued to drop the O/U line throughout the series, all the way down to 208 for Game 7 (after the O/U line was 227.5 for Gm 4!), but it still didn't matter. Incredibly, the Dubs held Houston to an average of only 91.2 points on 39.2% shooting over the last five games. The Warriors did exceed their own YTD scoring average of 112.7 PPG three times over the course of the series. 

It was a similar story in the Eastern Conference Finals w/ Game 7 closing w/ the lowest O/U line of the series and it also being - by far - the lowest scoring game. Oddsmakers had dropped the number by a full 10 pts from a series high of 207 (Gm 3), but to no avail. I see the NBA Finals, at least Game 1, changing this trend. While both regular season matchups between these teams stayed Under, one had a total of 234.0 and the other was an ugly shooting X-Mas Day game (GSW won both). Though they've improved somewhat dramatically in the postseason, Cleveland was a terrible defensive team in the regular season, ranking 28th in efficiency. Both teams were in the top five in offensive efficiency, however, and I simply cannot see two teams w/ this much firepower continuing to stay Under the number so consistently. The final four games of LY's Finals all went Over and the totals were much higher. 10* Over Cavaliers/Warriors

10* Over Warriors/Rockets (9:05ET): So it's all come down to this. Golden State clobbered the Chris Paul-less Rockets in Game 6, 115-86, as 12-pt favorites. But, despite that final score, it actually wasn't as easy as it seemed. The Warriors actually trailed by as many as 17 in the first quarter before a second-half barrage was far too much for Houston to overcome. After scoring 39 pts in the 1Q, the Rockets were held to only 47 the rest of the way. That included a disastrous nine-point 4Q. As a result, for a fourth straight game, the Under hit. Obviously, with a NBA Finals berth on the line Monday night, all other storylines seem secondary. But to me, how far the oddsmakers have had to reduce the O/U line is quite notable. I'm on the Over in Game 7 as the total is now almost 20 pts lower than what it was for Game 4! 

The Rockets have now been held under 100 pts in four straight games. Just how unprecedented is that? In the regular season, there was never an instance of them failing to score at least 100 pts in consecutive games! They've averaged just 91 PPG these L4 contests, which is just stunning. But as we saw in that 1Q Saturday night, this team is more than capable of still scoring, Paul or not. Consider that despite shooting 8 for 12 from three-point range in that 1Q of Game 6, the Rockets finished the game just 31 of 77 from the field overall (40.3%) and would go onto miss 20 of their final 27 attempts from behind the arc. James Harden in particular has really struggled from distance, going a combined 4 of 23 the L2 games. But, now the Rockets are back home and I just don't see any way we don't see across the board improvement offensively here. Four straight games of 40% shooting or worse is pretty unprecedented for any team in this league, especially this one.

Golden State did not get off to a good start in Game 6, but turned in a 33-pt 2Q, which was their 1st 30+ pt quarter since the third of Game 4. They went into halftime at just 4 of 18 from three-point range, but went 12 of 20 in the second half. Over the final three quarters, the Dubs scored 93 points, which is what we're used to seeing from them. They won going away despite a subpar (by his standard) effort from Kevin Durant, who was just 6 of 17 from the field. Also, neither team shot well from the FT line. On 36 total attempts, there were 14 misses. 10* Over Warriors/Rockets

10* Over Rockets/Warriors (9:05 ET): It sure is shocking to see two straight Rockets-Warriors games where the winner wasn't even required to score 100 points. In fact, Houston has averaged just 92.7 points over the L3 games! Not only is this the first time all season that they've been held below 100 pts in three consecutive games, it's the first time they've been held below 100 in B2B games. Now, the big story for Game 6 is going to be the absence of Chris Paul. This has made the Rockets big underdogs in a spot Golden State already had to win to stay alive. But even w/o Paul, look for Houston's offense to increase tonight. I'll say the same for a Warriors team that has also been held below 100 pts in B2B games, a rarity in its own right. I'm on the Over.

Just as rare as these two teams getting held below the century mark in consecutive games is the fact the Dubs have lost B2B games. When at (or close to) full strength, that simply does not happen. Now, I know Andre Iguodala has been out the last two games and his absence was a big reason why I took the Rockets in both of those games (went 2-0 ATS!). He's listed as questionable for tonight, but as HC Steve Kerr put it, "he's gotten incrementally better each day." Golden State is 6-3 Over this season coming off three or more consecutive Unders (Under is 7-1 their L8 games). When off a SU loss, they average 117.3 PPG. When off B2B losses (has happened only five times all season, including one three-game losing streak), they have scored no fewer than 107 in every game in that situation and are averaging 114.8 PPG.  Bottom line is they'll "get theirs" tonight. 

With Paul out, expect plenty of Harden in this game for the Rockets. Though I ultimately expect this series to go to a seventh game, a Harden-led offense is still plenty to "write home about" obviously. Consider that the team went 15-9 SU w/o Paul in the regular season. Now none of those games were against the Warriors, but the point still stands that I can't see this offense being held under 100 pts for a fourth straight time. I should also mention just how much this O/U line has dropped from the first four games. It's a near 15-point drop from Game 4, which is more than "pretty substantial" and will be one of the lowest totals for either team all season. There's plenty of value to be had here. 10* Over Rockets/Warriors

10* Over Warriors/Rockets (9:05 ET): While the Eastern Conference Finals is being controlled by homecourt advantage, over in the West, the zig-zag theory has held firm as the loser of the previous game has stormed back to win each of the last three games. It was Houston's turn in Game 4 as they pulled the upset in Oakland, 95-92 as nine-point underdogs. I'm proud to say that I was on the dog there as the Rockets essentially "saved" their season following an embarrassing 45-point loss in Game 3 just two nights earlier. The zig-zag theory indicates tonight would be the Warriors' time to shine, however, the series has now shifted back to Houston. Looking at tonight's total, it's significantly lower than any previous O/U line in the series and certainly lower than what it was for any of the regular season matchups. I'm on the Over in Game 5.

We're certainly not accustomed to seeing final scores in the 90's from either the Warriors or Rockets, so the fact that Tuesday's game ended up 95-92 is definitely quite shocking. These are, after all, the two top offensive teams in the league (both in efficiency and points per game). The fact that the Rockets averaged just 90 PPG in the two games at Golden State and were still able to come away w/ a split should actually have them feeling quite well about themselves. Because they average 113.9 points per game at home and should be considered a virtual lock to improve upon the shooting of the last two games, each of which saw them shoot just 39 percent from the floor. In particular, we should see them improve from three-point range where they were just 23 of 72 the L2 games. In the two home games in this series, Houston scored 106 and 127 pts.

Golden State is obviously no slouch on offense either. They shot better than 50% each of the first three games of the series before dipping down to 39% themselves in Game 4. This is a team that averages 113.0 PPG on the year w/ almost no dip on the road. Coming off an outright loss as a favorite, they are 13-8 Over this season. Their 14 assists in Gm 4 marked a series low and - shockingly - their assist percentage in the series is below that of the Rockets. That should start to change. Only Kevin Durant and Steph Curry scored more than 11 pts Tuesday and that's not likely to be the case again tonight. Both teams having two sub-20 pt quarters in Game 4 is something that certainly isn't likely to repeat itself again here. I'm taking advantage of this "low" number. 10* Over Warriors/Rockets

10* Over Celtics/Cavaliers (8:35 ET): Cleveland got a much needed win in Game 3, finally providing LeBron James w/ some support. In addition to James' 27 points and 12 assists, all other Cavs' starters scored in double figures and the team finished w/ 116 points and made 17 three-pointers. That's a big change from the first two games in Boston where they scored just 179 pts total and shot very poorly (particularly from three-point range). While the home team is now 3-0 in this series, so too is the Under as the losing side has yet to score more than 94 points in any of the three games. Boston was very bad shooting the ball on Saturday, making only 39.2% from the field, including 6 of 22 on three-pointers. My guess is they'll be a lot better here offensively (remember, Cleveland ranked 28th in defensive efficiency during the regular season) and the Cavs will be pretty close to their Game 3 performance as well. Take the Over. 

Each team has been pretty dismal from three-point range in two of the three games in this series. For Cleveland, it was obviously Games 1 and 2 as they went a combined 14 of 57 (24.5%). Therefore, Game 3 was a much-needed and welcome refresher. James made all three attempts from distance, but the real key was the rest of the team going 14 of 31, led by Kyle Korver and J.R. Smith going a combined 7 of 8. Remember - role players typically perform better at home. Obviously, I'm not anticipating much of a dropoff for Game 4. For the year, the Cavs are averaging 110.5 PPG at home on 48.2% shooting. This is also a team that averages 12 three-pointers made per game for the year. 

Boston does not need to win another road game to advance to the NBA Finals (they have homecourt advantage in this series), but they need to at least start playing better on the road. Saturday's loss dropped them to 1-5 SU on the road in these playoffs and they have not scored more than 102 pts in any of those games. Four times, they've been held to 92 or fewer. But Cleveland is giving up 108.7 PPG for the year and isn't a good defensive team. It's hard to imagine the Celtics shooting as poorly as they did in Game 3 or for that matter, the last two games. They are just 69 of 166 the L2 games, 41.5 FG%, including 16 of 53 from three-point range. James defended like a monster in Game 3, but given his offensive burden, I'm not sure a repeat of that can be reasonably expected. 10* Over Celtics/Cavaliers

10* Under Celtics/Cavaliers (8:35 ET): It has not been a good first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals for Cleveland, who has been held to just 177 pts on 40.9% shooting by the team that finished #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. For Boston, they couldn't have asked for a better start as they still undefeated at home this postseason (9-0 SU/ATS) w/ this "rag tag" group of well-coached players exceeding all expectations. But I wouldn't bet against Cleveland in this spot. Nor would I bet against a Celtics team that is now 23-8 ATS when taking points this season. What I would bet on for Game 3 is another Under as the Cavs are back to getting next to nothing outside of LeBron while Boston should see its own scoring (from the first two games) decrease, now that they're on the road. 

Game 2 was especially frustrating for Cavs' fans as LeBron had another triple double, this one coming w/ 42 points. But the rest of the team contributed just 52 and Kevin Love had 22 of those. The rest of the team combined for an odious 30 points on 12 of 33 shooting. That's how you blow a double-digit lead (which the Cavs had in Game 2). My guess is that at least one "role player" will step up and contribute tonight. But the lack of depth remains glaring here. Cleveland's overall scoring average in the playoffs (101.2 points per game) is way down from what it was in the regular season. This is also a bad free throw shooting team, which has cost them at times. The Under is 3-0 this postseason for the Cavs when trailing in a playoff series and 4-0 this season when playing w/ three or more days rest. 

Boston didn't exactly shoot well either in Game 2, going just 43.2% overall, including 10 of 31 from three-point range (Cleveland was an identical 10 for 31 from distance). But they had 12 more FG attempts and turned it over far less. Jaylen Brown has scored 23 pts in both games in this series and he + Terry Rozier have outscored Cleveland's starting backcourt 72-12 in the two games. But, key here is that the Celtics are just 1-4 SU on the road in the playoffs w/ significant drops in almost all major statistical categories. They have yet to top 102 pts in any of those five playoff road games and are averaging just 97 PPG overall. 10* Under Celtics/Cavs

10* Under Jazz/Rockets (8:05 ET): It certainly would appear as if we're destined for a Rockets-Warriors Western Conference Finals. Both teams enter Tuesday up three games to one in their respective series and are at home tonight. Houston was able to take both games in Utah, which is pretty impressive considering the Jazz came into this series sporting a 31-13 SU home record. Plus, both wins were by double digits (21 and 13 pts). That means of the eight head to head meetings between these two, the seven Rockets wins have all been by double digits. I'd like to think that w/ their season on the line, the Jazz will be more competitive. But I'm not willing to go on a limb and bet on oit. Instead, the total is more appealing as I'm 2 for 2 w/ the Under in this series already. Let's make it 3 for 3.

Over their last six games, Utah has failed to score 100 pts five times. The exception would be their Game 2 victory in Houston, which was a 116-108 final. You would have thought that they'd shoot better at home, but they finished Game 3 at 41.7% from the floor (despite going 11 of 29 from three-point range) and they were 38.6% from the floor in Game 4. They were 7 of 29 from three-point range this time and scored just 39 second-half points. It's not just playing in Houston that makes tonight a tall order for the Jazz offensively. They'll be short-handed as well. Ricky Rubio has not played a single game in this series after injuring his left hamstring in the close-out game vs. OKC. Apparently left hamstring injuries are contagious in the Jazz locker room as Dante Exum now has one as well and he'll miss tonight's game too. The Rubio injury has forced Donovan Mitchell into starting PG duties and that simply hasn't gone well as the rookie is shooting just 32.5% overall in the series. 

If they are to have any chance in Game 5, Utah will have to rely on its defense, which has been their calling card much of this season. They finished the regular season ranked #2 in the league (behind only Boston) in defensive efficiency. Frustrating for Jazz fans in this series is that Houston has not shot the three well, yet still is in position to advance. Following a Game 1 performance where they were 17 of 32 from behind the arc, the Rockets are just 31 of 111 (that's 28%!). Only one time in the series has Houston hit its season scoring average of 112 PPG and that was Game 3 when they scored 113. They have been relying on a lot of Chris Paul mid-range jumpers so far. The Rockets are already 5-2 Under this season after allowing 90 pts or less the previous game. 10* Under Jazz/Rockets

10* Under Celtics/76ers (6:05 ET): While Philadelphia pretty clearly was overpriced coming into this second round series (were -400 favorites on the ML!), no one anticipated them being on the brink of elimination going into Game 4. Not after they'd won 20 of 21 games previously. Now that winning percentage was unsustainable, a point I harped on when I took the Celtics in Game 1. But in the last two games, one in Boston and the other here in Philly, we've seen the Sixers blow significant leads. Here at home, they lost in overtime after blowing a five-point lead in the extra session. That came after Game 2 in Boston where they blew a 20-point lead. My "gut" tells me the Sixers stay alive here, but I have no interest in laying the points. Therefore, I'll be playing Game 4 the same way I did Game 3 - Under.

The Game 3 Under cashed in spite of OT. There were only 178 total pts in regulation scored, well below the oddsmakers posted O/U line. That's the kind of defense I was expecting from two teams that finished the regular season ranked in the top five in efficiency. Boston was of course #1 in that department and has held the young Sixers in check in this series. In the three games, Philly has shot 42.2%, 43.5% and 39.2% from the floor. I'm just not sure the Sixers are going to have an answer offensively. They've been bad from three-point range in two of the three games, including Game 3 where they were 10 of 38. Turnovers were an issue for them in the regular season and have certainly reared their ugly head again in this series. Ben Simmons has certainly looked nothing like a Rookie of the Year contender in the L2 games.

Boston's Brad Stevens is pretty clearly outcoaching Brett Brown in this series or perhaps its a case of the latter's young team failing to execute. Whatever the reason, the Sixers margin for error is now nil. I'm still confident that they can defend here though as they hold visiting teams to 42.5% shooting for the season. Boston's defense doesn't take a hit on the road, but on offense they do average about 4.2 points per game less. The first two games in Boston saw the Celtics go a combined 32 of 72 from three-point range. That was well above the team's season-long average of 37.7% from behind the arc. Sure enough, they regressed down to below 30% in Game 3.  10* Under Celtics/76ers

10* Under Celtics/Sixers (5:05 ET): Perhaps we were all too quick to "crown" the Sixers as they lost both games in Boston (as favorites) and now face an 0-2 series deficit. Coming into the second round, they had won 20 of their previous 21 games, an unsustainable run that was due to come back "down to Earth." I, for one, am not all that surprised that they are in the predicament they are in currently. I actually played against them in Game 1, the end result being a 117-101 loss. Game 2 saw them lead by as many as 22 in the first half, but Boston quickly erased that and was able to take the lead by midway through the 3Q and only give it back briefly. For me, it was a tough loss on the Under, which didn't officially become a loser until eight seconds were left in the game.

At home, I suspect that we'll see a strong bounce back performance from Philadelphia here as their backs are definitely against the wall (no team has ever recovered from a 3-0 series deficit). However, I don't dare bet against a Boston team that is 22-7 ATS in the underdog role this season (and 13-2 ATS off a SU win as a dog). So, I'll go back to the well w/ the Under again. I figure we can always count on the Celtics defensively as they've held the Sixers to 42.2% and 43.5% shooting in the first two games. They were also the #1 ranked team in defensive efficiency during the regular season.There is basically no change in the number of points per game allowed on the road compared to at home. They do however average about 4.2 PPG fewer themselves.

Ben Simmons isn't going to be held scoreless again for Philly (was in Gm 2), but any individual gains he makes here likely come at the expense of the other scorers. The Sixers were terrible shooting the ball in Game 1, most notably from three-point range where they went 5 for 26. They improved to 13 of 33, a solid percentage, in Game 2. I expect that number to come back down for Game 3. At the same time, on the road, I expect Boston's three-point shooting to fall off tonight. In the first two games, the Celtics were 32 of 72 from behind the arc, which is almost 45 percent. That's well above the team's normal average of 37.7% for the year. Something not talked about enough is Philadelphia's defense. This was also a top five team in efficiency during the regular season and they hold opponents to just 42.4% shooting here for the year. 10* Under Celtics/Sixers 

10* Under Rockets/Jazz (10:35 ET): Utah surprised a lot of people (not me!) by winning Game 2, 116-108 as a double digit dog. After taking a big early lead (by as many as 19 points), they had to thwart a Houston comeback, one that even saw the Jazz trail briefly in the third quarter. But led by Donovan Mitchell (17 pts, 11 assists) and Joe Ingles (career-high 27 pts), the Jazz were able to battle back and in the end, win comfortably. Game 2 was a stark contrast to Game 1 when Utah fell behind big early (trailed by as many as 25 pts) and never really recovered. Now the series shifts to Utah for the next two games where the Jazz have gone 31-13 SU this season and only allow 96.7 PPG. I had the Under in Game 1 and that's how I'm playing Game 3 as well.

Game 1 did see the Under cash (barely), but Game 2 went Over pretty easily as the Jazz shot 51.8% from the field and made 15 three-pointers. One area that the Jazz struggled in both games was free throw shooting as they're a combined 28 of 47 in the series. But an area where there were no struggles, at least in Game 2, was the defensive end. They limited the Rockets to 40% shooting overall, including 10 of 37 from three-point range. That's very different from Game 1 when Houston went 17 of 32 from behind the arc. Of course, in taking the Jazz plus the points in Game 2, I anticipated that Rockets drop-off. Some of that was natural, the rest probably can be traced back to the fact Utah finished the regular season ranked #2 in defensive efficiency. Something that may surprise you is that in the first two games, Houston is only 48 of 108 on two-point FG attempts. That's just 44%. 

While Houston might very well shoot better in Game 3, Utah probably won't shoot as well here compared to the last game, even though it is at home. Ingles probably isn't scoring 27 pts again. Something else to keep in mind is that the Jazz play at one of the slowest paces in the entire league. They were tied for 25th in adjusted tempo, second slowest among all playoff teams (San Antonio). Defensively, they are a lot better at home (96.7 PPG allowed) than on the road (103.4 PPG allowed) and that probably helps explain why the Under is 26-18 in Salt Lake this season. Similarly, the Under is 25-17 in Rockets' road games this season. They score about 3.5 PPG less on the road than they do at home. They also give up fewer points. 10* Under Rockets/Jazz 

8* Under Sixers/Celtics (8:35 ET): Well, I "struck gold" in Game 1 of this series, cashing the Celtics as home underdogs. They won 117-101 (closed +4.5), holding the previously red hot Sixers to just 42.2% shooting. Head coach Brad Stevens rightly deserves all the accolades heaped upon him, especially considering all the personnel Boston was w/o in Game 1. Kyrie Irving is of course out for the entire postseason and Jaylen Brown didn't play either. Of course, this team's calling card all season long has been its defense as they ranked #1 in efficiency on that end of the floor during the regular season. The loss of Irving really doesn't hurt them at all in that regard. But it obviously hampers them offensively and while Boston has found ways to have some big scoring nights in this postseason, I don't think Game 2 will be one of them. Take the Under.

Brown had been upgraded to probable for Game 2, but has since been downgraded to doubtful on Wednesday afternoon. Keep an eye on his status. Regardless, this Under play will stand. If Brown does play, expect some rust and him not to be all that effective on the offensive end. Given that the swingman is averaging 17.9 PPG this postseason, his loss will be felt. But then again, that average is heavily skewed by a 34-point effort in Game 4 of the last series. This Celtics team did not shoot particularly well vs. the Bucks in Round 1 (only two games above 42.0 FG%), so needless to say I don't see a repeat of their 48% shooting from Game 1 of this series. I especially don't see them shooting 17 of 36 again from three-point range or 18 of 19 from the FT line. The Over is 10-2 the Celtics' last 12 games overall, but that's a trend I see reversing itself moving forward.

While Boston should certainly be commended for its Game 1 performance, the truth of the matter is that Philadelphia was highly unlikely to continue its torrid pace, which had seen them win 18 of 19 games. The cold reality is they've shot below 43% from the field in four of the past five games anyway. As stated above, they are now dealing with the #1 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. In five meetings w/ the Celtics this season, the Sixers have yet to top 103 pts in any of them. They've also shot 42.2% of worse in four of them. Joel Embiid was quick to tout Game 1 as not being "representative" of what the team is capable of, and while that might be true against most teams, I'm not sure it applies to facing the Celtics. Embiid himself struggled in Game 1 as he continues to get used to the new offense the team is playing. The Under is 10-4 this season for Philadelphia if they allowed 115+ pts the previous game. 8* Under Sixers/Celtics 

10* Over Cavaliers/Raptors (6:05 ET): It was a familiar story for Toronto in Game 1 as they once again failed to beat LeBron James, this time doing so in one of the most excruciating ways possible. That is, they lost in overtime (by a single point) after never trailing in regulation. To add insult to injury, James didn't even perform that well (though he did have a triple double). By his own admission, it was "probably one of my worst games of the season." James shot just 12 for 30 from the field, including 1 for 8 from three-point range, and additionally went 1 for 6 from the FT line. He was only 3 for 15 in the fourth quarter & overtime, his most misses from the field in a 4Q/OT in his entire career. And Cleveland still won the game. The key was an epic collapse from the Raptors as down the stretch they missed 16 of 17 shots at one point. Neither team shot better than 43% for the game.

For the first time in these playoffs, Game 1 saw a James' teammate score at least 20 pts in a game. It was J.R. Smith of all people, who like most Cavs not named LeBron had been having a poor playoffs so far. Overall, five Cavaliers scored in double figures, led by James' 23. One of them was NOT Kevin Love, who continues to shoot poorly (was 3 for 13 in Gm 1). It would be easy to dismiss the Smith contribution as unlikely to repeat itself in Game 2, but the fact of the matter is that LeBron's supporting cast has been so poor thus far in the playoffs that you can't help but think the collective effort WILL improve. As a team, Cleveland averaged 110.9 PPG in the regular season (2nd in the East, only to Toronto) and was 5th in offensive efficiency. James is also very likely to see his own shooting percentage improve for Game 2.

If there is hope for Toronto, it's that Cleveland also ranked 28th in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They were ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix. I wrote about this a lot in the first round series vs. Indiana where the Cavs somewhat shockingly allowed more than 101 pts only once. But in Game 1 Tuesday, there were signs of regression despite the Raptors inability to hit a shot late. What was so frustrating from the Toronto perspective is that so many of the missed shots were wide-open. At home, it's difficult to envision them missing those same opportunities again. After all, this is a team that averages 112.5 PPG at home and ranked third in the league in offensive efficiency (behind only Houston and Golden State) in the regular season. I see both teams shooting better here in Game 2 than they did in Game 1 when they each finished w/ 105 pts at the end of regulation anyway. For the season, Cleveland still allows 109.2 PPG. 10* Over Cavaliers/Raptors

10* Under Jazz/Rockets (3:30 ET): It's a quick turnaround between series for Utah, who just eliminated Oklahoma City Friday night. It took them six games in what should NOT be considered an upset as they had the better point differential and net efficiency rating in the regular season. This Jazz team must be taken seriously as their record since MLK day is a remarkable 33-8 SU. Now a second round tilt w/ Houston will be a far greater challenge than what they faced vs. the poorly constructed Thunder, yet the same could be said for Houston as the Jazz will be a much stiffer challenge than the defensively challenged Timberwolves. In fact, Utah was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. That's a big reason why I am on the Under in Game 1. 

It only took five games for the Rockets to eliminate the T'wolves. Offensively, they got off to a slow start in that series, failing to hit their season average in scoring in each of the first three games. Consider that Minnesota was only 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Rockets scored 119 and 122 pts in the final two games, but it didn't come easy in Game 4 as they shot only 43.5%. Minnesota may have actually provided a "blueprint" of sorts for Utah to defend likely MVP James Harden. The T'wolves dropped Karl-Anthony Towns back in the pain in a "rim protection strategy" that seemed to work most of the time. Utah employing something similar w/ Rudy Gobert, a much better defender than Towns, would likely be even more effective. The Jazz were one only two teams (Spurs) in the regular season that allowed fewer than 100 PPG. Three times, they held OKC under the century mark and over the last five games, they allowed an average of only 98.2 PPG. 

But not all the news is good for Utah coming into this series. Starting point guard Ricky Rubio could be out for as many as 10 days and will definitely miss Game 1. That's a killer on the offensive end as Rubio was having a career year. Also, the Jazz were swept by the Rockets in the regular season series, losing the four games by an average of 17.5 points per game. The Jazz scored 101 pts or fewer in three of the four games and actually saw their scoring decrease w/ each passing game. They also failed to score 100 pts in the last two games vs. Oklahoma City. 10* Under Jazz/Rockets

8* Over Bucks/Celtics (8:05 ET): The home team has won all six games of this best of seven series, so here we are in Boston for Game 7 Saturday. Quite frankly, I was not crazy about either of these teams coming into the postseason as Milwaukee was the lone team in the field to be outscored during the regular season while Boston is injury-riddled, most notably being w/o Kyrie Irving. There was a string of shockingly good shooting performances, from either one side or both, in the first four games (all Overs). But that has quickly changed w/ B2B Unders in the L2 games, both of which saw 183 or less total pts scored. Thus, the O/U line is way down here compared to where it's been previously in this series. Though the Celtics' calling card is defense, I'll call for Game 7 to go Over the low number. 

Boston finished the regular season #1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. However, Milwaukee is shooting better than 50% from the field in this series. Really, the Bucks have had only one bad shooting night in the entire series and that was the last game here in Boston, Game 5 on Tuesday. They bounced back and stayed alive by shooting 50.7% in a 97-86 Game 6 win, which also doubled as their best defensive effort of the series as well. Looking strictly at shooting percentages in this series, one would think Milwaukee should have already advanced. Boston is shooting only 42.7% in the six games and that number would be even lower if not for shooting 53.3% in Game 2. In all other games, they've been 42% or lower. Looking through all the numbers from this series, something else that sticks out is how bad the three-point shooting has been the past two games. The teams have combined to go just 37 of 126, which is an ugly 29.3% 

That three-point shooting can only improve here and at home, I certainly think Boston will shoot better tonight. The Bucks do allow 107.8 PPG on the road for the season. While Game 5 was a bit of an "ugly win," the Celtics did score 113 and 120 pts respectively in Game 1 and 2 victories here at home. Bucks' games average more than 212 PPG for the year, so this total is really low from their perspective. In fact, it is very likely to close as the lowest O/U line for any of their games this season! For the record, the Over is 3-0 in Milwaukee games this season when the O/U line is 197.0 or lower. Two of the three games even saw at least 217 pts scored. Even from Boston's perspective, this O/U line is low. You just don't see many NBA totals at 195 pts or lower anymore. 8* Over Bucks/Celtics

10* Over Cavaliers/Pacers (8:05 ET): To quote Whitesnake, "Here I go again, on my own." The low-scoring nature of this series (Under is 5-0!) has flat out stunned me given Cleveland's poor defensive marks during the regular season. They ranked 28th in the league in efficiency, ahead of only the Kings and Suns (you're probably sick of me saying that at this point). Coming into this series, had you told me that the Cavs would hold Indiana to 100 pts or less in five straight games, I might have guessed the series would be over at this point. But it's not and LeBron James had to (again!) bail his team out w/ an incredible block & then three-pointer in the closing seconds Wednesday. (Goaltend or not, the Cavs still would have won). As for Indiana, we're starting to see their record in close games regress, which is something I would have predicted coming into the playoffs. 

The Cavs were shockingly blown out on their home floor in Game 1, losing 98-80. Since then, they've come back to take the series lead w/ all four games decided by four points or less. Now, they try and close out the Pacers on the road. Again, I'm not shocked to see Indiana losing close games here. They were a league-best 11-2 SU in games decided by three points or less during the regular season, which is obviously extraordinarily fortunate. While they did win Game 3 at home, 92-90, note they were down by 17 at halftime. Really, Cleveland dominated much of the way in Games 2-4. Game 5 was a back and forth affair w/ the Cavs rallying this time behind an incredible James performance that saw him go for 44 pts (15-15 FT's!), 10 rebounds and 8 assists. 

What has surprised me in this series is how low-scoring it has been. The Cavs still are averaging 109.9 PPG for the year, even though they haven't hit that average once in this series. The same can be said for the Pacers and their YTD scoring average of 105.0 PPG (which jumps to 106.4 at home). Both teams finished ranked inside the top 12 in offensive efficiency during the regular season w/ Cleveland 5th. Of course, the Cavs also allow 109.1 PPG, second most among playoff teams (New Orleans). Three-point shooting has generally been poor (from both teams) in this series and really we've gone three straight games w/o either team shooting the ball particularly well overall. I'll call for that streak to come to an end here in Game 6. It's not like the teams aren't scoring. All five games have seen the team w/ the halftime lead score at least 55 pts. The current Under streak (now at six games) is the longest for Cleveland all season. 10* Over Cavaliers/Pacers

10* Over Pacers/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): Let's try this yet again, shall we? While most in the national media remain focused on whether or not this series might end up being the first time LeBron James loses in the first round, to me, the most shocking thing about this series has been all four games staying Under the total. Our Over play in Game 4 suffered a brutal fate as the Cavs' Jeff Green missed a free throw in the closing seconds, costing us a win. Given Cleveland's defensive ineptitude during the regular season, I'm not sure what is more surprising: the fact they've held Indiana to 100 pts or less in all four games or the fact that they're just 2-2 in the series despite doing so. I think we're finally in store for an Over here in Game 5 (I realize I've said that before!), and that's the way I'm playing this one. 

As I've stated numerous times before, Cleveland ranked 28th in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They finished ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix. No team has ever made an NBA Finals w/ a defensive efficiency rating that low. Heck, only two playoff teams finished lower than 20th (them and soon to be eliminated Minnesota). So it's definitely a surprise to see the Pacers getting held to 100 pts or less in all four games. Indiana averages 105.2 PPG on 47.2% shooting for the year. Meanwhile, Cleveland averages 110.1 PPG for the year on an almost identical shooting percentage. We've seen some good shooting nights so far in this series (not Game 4), but it simply hasn't translated into a lot of points. It's also hurt that the number of free throws attempted in each game hasn't been that large. 

In every game of the series, at least one of the teams has scored 55 pts in the first half. After Cleveland infamously "nose-dived" in the second half of Game 3 (blew 57-40 halftime edge), they very nearly did the same again in Game 4, but this time were able to hold on for the 104-100 victory. A big reason they were able to hold on was that Pacers' leading scorer Victor Oladipo had himself an "off-night" as he finished the game at just 5 for 20 shooting. I expect him to improve upon that percentage and overall scoring tonight. In fact, Oladipo is just 19 for 53 from the field the L3 games after scoring 32 pts in Game 1. So, he's definitely due to improve. As for the Cavaliers, LeBron continues to carry the rest of the team "kicking and screaming," but tonight at home, I expect the "role players" to perform better than they have in the previous two games. 10* Over Pacers/Cavaliers

8* Under Spurs/Warriors (10:35 ET): San Antonio was able to "circle the wagons" in Game 4 and thus delay the inevitable (that being elimination) by winning 103-90 as home underdogs. They did so w/ HC Greg Popovich missing a second straight game due to the death of his wife. An emotional a win as that might have been, I don't think many are looking for the Spurs to last much longer (no Kwhai Leonard remember) and tonight's probably the night that their season ends. However, I don't think for a second that they won't go down w/o a fight. Golden State, who trailed by as many as 17 pts in Game 4, is w/o Steph Curry and thus has its own set of issues right now. I realize it was only "one bad shooting night" in Game 4, but I like this potential close out game to stay Under the total. 

The Warriors missed 21 of 28 three-point attempts Sunday and shot just 37.8% overall from the field. In each of their three victories in the series, they were north of 50% overall. But they are just 14 of 61 from three-point range the L2 games. That's where they obviously miss Curry, but let's also not forget that San Antonio is one of the best defensive teams in the league. Only them and Utah allowed fewer than 100 PPG during the regular season and the Spurs also finished fourth in defensive efficiency. Game 4 snapped a seven-game Over streak for the Spurs' in the postseason when trailing in a series. But remember that this particular iteration doesn't really have the "horses" past ones did and I sincerely doubt we're going to see the same type of production we saw from Manu Ginobili, in particular, here that we did on Sunday. 

Lost in this great four-year run the Dubs have had is that they are a good defensive team. It was another top 10 finish in efficiency this year and they're holding San Antonio to just 98.2 PPG (on 42.3% shooting) in the series. In their last six games (includes last two reg season games), the Spurs have not scored more than 103 pts. They were fortunate to make 15 of 28 three-point attempts in Game 4, but that was after going a somewhat horrific 11 of 61 from behind the arc the previous two games. I realize that this is a low total from Golden State's perspective, but I think they'll hold the Spurs in severe "check" offensively tonight and won't need anywhere close to their "usual" amount of scoring to close out the series. 8* Under Spurs/Warriors

10* Under Bucks/Celtics (7:30 ET): Have the oddsmakers simply underestimated these teams ability to score? Through the first four games of this best of seven series, it would certainly appear that they have. The Over is a perfect 4-0, though Game 4 just barely snuck Over after Giannis Antetokounmpo's game winning putback gave the Bucks a 104-102 win on Sunday. We're all knotted at two games a piece in this series w/ the other trend (besides the Over) being that the home team has won every game. The scene now shifts back to Boston where the Celtics won the first two games, but they remain undermanned and have been outshot in every game in the series. The Celtics managed only 35 1st half points in each game at Milwaukee and while there might be a natural "jump" in scoring w/ them being back home, I believe it to be minimal at best and it will be defense that carries them, if they are to win here. Take the Under.

You have to remember that the strength of this Celtics team in the regular season was defense. They ranked #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and allowed just 100.4 PPG, which was third fewest in the entire league (fewest in the Eastern Conference). However, that defense has been under fire in this series as the Bucks have shot a stunning 54.2% in the four games, averaging 108.2 PPG. While the loss of Kyrie Irving is huge for the Celtics, that should not be having an adverse effect on the team defensively. Yet going back to the end of the regular season, Boston has gone Over in eight straight games. Totals have generally been low during this time, but note Celtics' games are still only averaging 205 PPG for the season. 

I can't see Milwaukee continuing to shoot the ball as well as they have moving forward. In that regard, look for Celtics' HC Brad Stevens to make adjustments. I have little faith in a Bucks team that was actually outscored during the regular season, beyond Antetokounmpo. They were one of the top Over teams in the league during the regular season, but I've been really surprised as to how well they're shooting in this series. The Bucks' bench also scored 31 pts in Game 4, a number that should decrease significantly tonight. As for Boston offensively, that's where they do miss Irving and the "next man up" mentality isn't always going to work. Jaylen Brown did have 34 points Sunday (career-high), but note that Game 1 "hero" Terry Rozier had only 10. Looking at this roster, I just don't see a "reliable" scoring option on a night to night basis. The Celtics have shot below 42% in three of the four games in this series. 10* Under Bucks/Celtics

10* Over Cavs/Pacers (8:35 ET): Cleveland is in some real trouble here. Yes, they dominated virtually all of Games 2 & 3 except for "the end." That last little tidbit ended up costing them Game 3 Friday night as they blew all of a 17-pt halftime lead and ended up losing 92-90. What's really scary if you're a Cavs fan is that your team, which finished 28th in the regular season in defensive efficiency (ahead of only Sacramento & Phoenix), has given up less than 100 pts in all three games and yet is down 2-1 in the series as well as 0-3 against the spread. They're now just 4-13 ATS head to head vs. Indiana the L3 seasons despite being 12-5 straight up. I don't really want to bet against the Cavs off a loss, but what I will do here is go w/ the Over as all three games in the series staying Under may be the biggest surprise of all!

Because the Under is a perfect 3-0 in this series, the O/U line has come down somewhat significantly since Game 1. Totals for the first two games were 212.5 and 213. Both Unders cashed by double digits, so the oddsmakers dipped the number for Game 3 and even that one was an easy winner for Under bettors. So now it's been another noticeable dip for Game 4. I know I wrote this prior to Friday, but I think we've reached a "tipping point" of sorts when it comes to the current O/U line. I already mentioned how bad Cleveland was defensively in the regular season. They continue to give up an average of 109.4 PPG for the year. They also average 110.1 PPG for the year, themselves. So this is a really low number from their perspective. 

Indiana is no slouch offensively either, at least in the regular season they weren't, as despite failing to break 100 pts in any of the three games here they average 105.2 PPG. At home, that average jumps to 106.6. Three-point shooting has been pretty woeful in this series - from both sides - and the number of free throw attempts hasn't been what it should be (this despite a LOT of fouls being called in Game 3). I've got to imagine those numbers go up here. Cleveland was held to just 33 second half pts on Friday, an unconscionably low number, after scoring 57 by halftime. They had only 12 pts in the third quarter. With George Hill's back giving him trouble, Cavs HC Ty Lue is reportedly set to start Jose Calderon at point guard. I actually think that's an upgrade based on necessity. Following three or more consecutive Unders this season, the Cavs are 8-4 Over. 10* Over Cavs/Pacers

8* Under Raptors/Wizards (6:05 ET): The first three games of this series have all gone Over the total, most of them comfortably so. I was actually on the Over in Game 1. After a ridiculously high-scoring Game 2 (Raptors won 130-119 to take a 2-0 series lead), oddsmakers adjusted the O/U line for Game 3 by several points, but even that wasn't high enough as the teams combined for another 225 pts. But this time it was the Wizards prevailing, 122-103, as a slight favorite at home. That was obviously a must-win for Washington as no team in NBA history has ever overcome an 0-3 series deficit. But note for Game 4, the line has shifted to where Toronto is now a slight favorite. I'm leaving that alone, but I do think that we're in store for an Under here tonight. I just don't see the two teams keeping up the ridiculous shooting we've seen in the first three games. 

Washington shot 55.3% from the floor in Game 3 and has shot above 50% for the series. They've scored the exact number of points that Toronto has. A large key for them so far has been three-point shooting where they've gone 28 of 66 for the series, or 42.4%. While a good shooting team in the regular season, these playoff numbers are higher than normal for the Wiz. They had 69 pts by halftime in Game 3 and the starting backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal combined for 56 pts (w/ 28 each). Marcin Gortat also came up w/ his best performance of the series w/ 16 pts at a time when many thought he might get dropped from the starting lineup. Do not expect Washington to be as prolific offensively tonight as Game 3 was certainly one of those "once in a series" type efforts. 

Toronto is also shooting better than 50% for the series, though they were at only 45.1% in Game 3. Now this team is not nearly as effective on the road compared to North of the Border. They are #1 in the league in home scoring differential. Like Washington, the Raptors have been lights out from three-point range in this series as they have gone 41 of 93, which is 44%. Again, that's a percentage one would think almost HAS to come down. Free throw shooting has also been ridiculous for both times. My dad often calls me to lament FT shooting in this league, but I've received no correspondence from him on this series and for good reason. The two teams are combining to hit well over 80% from the charity stripe, missing only 19 of 138 attempts. Again, that's a percentage I don't view as being sustainable. The Raptors had an uncharacteristic 19 turnovers, which led to 28 Wizards' points in Game 3. I don't see that happening again either. 8* Under Raptors/Wizards

8* Over Rockets/T'wolves (7:35 ET): Coming into this series, the expectation was for a lot of points, but that really hasn't come to fruition yet. The first two games have both stayed Under, the last one by a healthy margin as Houston routed Minnesota 102-82 to take a 2-0 series lead. Particularly frightening if you're a T'wolves fan is that Game 2 saw Rockets' star James Harden shoot only 2 for 18 from the floor (including 1 of 10 from three-point range) and still your team lost by 20. Granted, the series now shifts to the Twin Cities, but I'm not confident that will change much. What I am confident in though is that we're in store for a lot more scoring in Game 3. Take the Over. 

Houston was neck and neck w/ Golden State all year long for the most efficient offense in the game. They averaged 112.4 PPG as well, just a bucket less than the Dubs for the highest scoring average in the league. So its certainly rare to see them having been below that average for six consecutive games (all Unders) as well as seven of the last eight. In fact, the Under is now 9-1 Under in the Rockets' previous 10 games. Harden's poor shooting night certainly didn't help matters in Game 2, but he'll certainly be better tonight. As a team, the Rockets only shot 36.5% in Game 2 and they are a woeful 26 of 89 from three-point range in the series. There's no reason NOT to expect those numbers to go up considering Minnesota has never been stout defensively and came into the playoffs ranked 22nd in efficiency.

Now the T'wolves were also a top four team in offensive efficiency in the regular season. They averaged 109.5 PPG in the regular season. So their own offensive efforts in the first two games of this series are even more disappointing that Houston's. They're only 13 of 41 from three-point range, not that they're known as the most prolific three-point shooting team anyway. But they were just 38.7% overall from the floor in Game 2 after shooting 43.7% in Game 1. I think a return home (where they averaged 111.1 PPG in the regular season) is bound to do them some good. Following a double digit loss this season, Minnesota is 8-4 Over. Their three top players - Karl-Anthony Towns, Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins - all scored 13 pts or fewer in Game 2 w/ Towns making only two of nine field goal attempts. Expect a lot more production from that trio tonight. 8* Over Rockets/T'wolves

10* Over Cavaliers/Pacers (7:05 ET): For some, maybe it's been the lopsided nature of the first two contests that's been the most surprising thing from the series. But for me, it's been the fact that Cleveland - not a good defensive team - has allowed fewer than 100 pts in both games. Now, that comes w/ a giant caveat as Game 1 also saw them turn in their worst offensive performance of the season in a 98-80 outright loss. Led by the greatest player on the planet (LeBron James, duh), they bounced back in Game 2, winning 100-97. Though the final score was close, note Cleveland jumped out to a huge lead and never trailed in the contest. But I come back to the fact the Cavs finished the regular season 28th in defensive efficiency (ahead of only Sacramento & Phoenix) and yet we've had two low-scoring games thus far. I think that changes in Game 3. Take the Over.

I was on Indiana in both Games 1 and 2, so from that perspective, I've had a good read on the series thus far. You could tell pretty quickly though that Game 2 was not going to be their night. LeBron started the game on a 16-2 run by himself and wound up w/ a game-high 46. Cleveland led by as many as 18. It was a far cry from Game 1 when it was the Pacers racing out to a huge early lead and never looking back. I anticipate Game 3 will be more competitive. Now, despite the low score, both teams shot better than 50% in Game 2. But, a big key to the final result was Indiana shooting only 6 of 22 from three-point range. And several of those makes came late in the contest. Helping offset any potential decline in overall shooting from Gm 2 is that I expect a higher # of FT attempts here. The teams combined for just 34 in Gm 2 and Cleveland missed seven of their 22. 

Again, Cleveland is not a good defensive team. Among playoff teams, only New Orleans allowed more points per game in the regular season. Of course, they can score w/ the best of them as well, ranking top five in offensive efficiency during the regular season and averaging 110.4 PPG. Indiana was 12th in offensive efficiency during the regular season and their scoring average jumps to 106.9 PPG here at home. What really hurt them in Gm 2 was early foul trouble for leading scorer Victor Oladipo. This O/U line has come down several points from the first two games and is especially low from Cleveland's perspective compared to most regular season games. Each team's average in terms of points scored and allowed would simply now yield an Over. 10* Over Cavaliers/Pacers

8* Under Sixers/Heat (7:05 ET): In many ways, this is a "mea culpa" of sorts for me after suffering an all-time bad beat w/ the Under in Game 2. With a total of 215.5, I was feeling pretty good about my bet when the game was 104-96 (in Miami's favor) w/ just over two minutes to go. It was a 106-98 game w/ less than 50 seconds remaining. By now, if you're already not aware, you can tell how this story ends. A late flurry, where 12 pts were scored in the game's final 25 seconds, ended w/ a "meaningless" Goran Dragic driving layup (w/ 1.2 seconds remaining!) and the game snuck Over the total (113-103 Miami win). Just like I thought Philly would not be able to replicate its offensive prowess from Game 1 in Game 2 (they didn't), I don't think Miami (Dwayne Wade specifically) will be as prolific here in Game 3 as they were in Game 2. Take the Under.

The other big story from Game 2 (and honestly, the one more cared about than my ill-fortune w/ the total) was the Heat bouncing back in a major way. Led by Wade's 28 points, the Heat ended the Sixers' 17-game win streak in stunning fashion, winning outright as 7.5-pt dogs. They took control w/ a huge second quarter, outscoring Philly 34-13. As I figured they would, the Sixers regressed big-time from three-point range. After making 18 of 28 attempts in Game 1, they were just 7 of 34 in Game 2. This time, it was the Heat's shooting from two-point range that was other-worldly. They went 31 of 57 inside the arc, which is almost 55%. Just like Philly's three-point shooting decline, Miami's two-point decline is almost as predictable here. Remember that the Sixers finished the regular season ranked #3 in defensive efficiency.

As much as I "want" the Under here, it is by no means solely an emotional play for some of the rationale listed above. Philly's scoring drops on the road (common for most teams), but in their case the decline is rougly four points. Opponents only shoot 43.4% from the floor against this team for the year. At the same time, Miami finished the regular season ranked 7th in defensive efficiency and also plays at the slowest pace of any playoff team save for San Antonio. Wade, in particular, will see his production from the last game decline. Also remember that Philadelphia is still w/o Joel Embiid. 8* Under Sixers/Heat 

10* Over Pelicans/Blazers (10:35 ET): Game 1 of this best of seven series treated me well as I took New Orleans plus the points and didn't even need them as they pulled the upset, 97-95 as five-point underdogs. Really, that final margin of victory is a tad bit misleading as the Pelicans led by double digits going into the fourth quarter (led by as many as 19!) before holding on for the outright victory. As I said he would be (in my analysis), Anthony Davis was the best player on the floor, leading the way w/ 35 pts, 14 rebounds and four blocks. While I gave NO an excellent shot at pulling said upset, what really struck me was the low-scoring nature of the contest. On average, Pelicans' games are among the highest scoring in the entire league. We should see far more points scored in Game 2. Take the Over.

The Blazers shot only 37.8% from the field in the series opener, continuing a trend of poor shooting that extends back to the end of the regular season. Three times in the last five games they've failed to score 100 pts, a real oddity for a team that averaged 105.5 PPG in the regular season. They've now been under that average for five straight games. The real sore spot has been the team's three-point shooting. Over the last 12 games, the Blazers have shot below 32% from distance TEN times. Game 1 certainly didn't help those percentages as they were just 12 of 39. Another issue was free throw shooting, or rather lack of attempts. The starting backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum combined for just three FT attempts and the team had only.

In the regular season, New Orleans was the ONLY team in the league to both score and allow 110+ PPG. Scoring was NOT an issue for this team down the stretch as over the final five regular season games they averaged a whopping 121.2 PPG. Davis looked unstoppable in Game 1 and I see no reason why we should expect any different moving forward. Going all the way back to early November, there has been just ONE instance of the Pelicans being held under 100 pts in B2B games. So, the bottom line is that both teams are likely to see a scoring increase for Game 2 and that means Over is the call. In the regular season, New Orleans was the #2 Over team in the league, trailing only Milwaukee.  10* Over Pelicans/Blazers

10* Under Heat/Sixers (8:05 ET): The infamous "Process" isn't just working, it's exceeding all expectations at this point as Philadelphia has now won 17 straight following its 130-103 demolition of the Heat in Game 1. Keep in mind the team is still w/o Joel Embiid. It's almost impossible to play against them at this point, though it should be pointed out they actually trailed the Heat at halftime on Saturday. But the second half was all Sixers as they outscored Miami 74-43. They wound up making 18 of 28 three-pointers, a ridiculous percentage that isn't likely to be duplicated anytime soon. In fact, it was a record number of three-pointers made in a playoff game for the franchise. The Game 2 total is the highest yet for any of this season's six head to head matchups and I'm taking the Under.

Needless to say, the Heat don't give up 130+ pts very often. That has happened only two times previously this season and in both instances, they've come back to win the next time out. While you couldn't tell by watching the second half of Game 1, this was actually a top ten team in defensive efficiency during the regular season (7th). They also play at a very slow pace typically (tied for 25th overall). Among playoff teams, only San Antonio averages a fewer number of possessions per game than does Miami. The keys to Game 1 were that they allowed Philly far too many field goal attempts (95!) and that second half in which the Sixers caught fire, hitting most of those three-pointers. As stated above, a repeat performance by Philly from behind the arc is highly unlikely here. 

Incredibly, Game 1 marked the third time in the last five games that the Sixers scored at least 130 points! Prior to that, it had happened only one time all season. Something the Sixers don't get nearly enough credit for is their defense. They entered the playoffs third in the league in defensive efficiency (trailing only Boston and Utah). Quietly, Miami actually made 12 three-pointers in Game 1, shooting at a 46.2% clip. Like Philadelphia, that number should come down here in Game 2. There were also a total of 60 free throws attempted in Game 1, a high number. The Sixers are holding visitors to just 42.4% shooting for the season, so a Miami team that isn't the most explosive offensive team to begin with, should struggle here offensively. With or without Embiid (he's listed as questionable), this game stays Under the total. 10* Under Heat/Sixers

8* Over Wizards/Raptors (5:35 ET): While they're the top seed in the Eastern Conference, Toronto probably isn't feeling too good about itself heading into the playoffs as they went just 7-6 SU their final 13 regular season games and were far worse at the pay window. Still, they'd built up enough of a lead that holding onto the top spot was not a problem (Boston injuries certainly helped) and their dominance at home during the regular season has to at least have them feeling good. No team in the league outscored its opponents by larger margin at home than did the Raptors (+10.4 PPG), who averaged an impressive 112.2 PPG here. They were third in the league in offensive efficiency (tops in the East) and only Houston and Golden State averaged more points per game. 

Washington is not exactly a defensive stalwart as they allow over 106 PPG. With John Wall missing significant time, the Wizards slid all the way down to the 8th spot, drawing this tough 1st round matchup. If there is any shred of hope here, it comes in the form of the fact Toronto has been just atrocious in Game 1's throughout their franchise history. They've lost 10 straight Game 1's going all the way back to to the 2001 Eastern Conference Semifinals. They've also lost nine straight playoff openers. But the Wizards are a big underdog here for a reason as they have dropped five of six and are just 7-14 their L21 games overall. They do have Wall back, so they're a better team now than they were for most of that stretch. 

These teams met four times in the regular season, splitting the quartet of games. Three of the four went Under as have each of the last five meetings here North of the Border. But I look for a far different result here in Game 1 of this best of seven series. Today's total is lower than three of those four regular season meetings and these are two teams that shoot the ball well (both above 46.7% from the field), including from three-point range. The Raptors actually held two of their last five opponents below 80 pts, which is highly irregular as for the year they're giving up 103.9 PPG. As mentioned before, Washington gives up even more. DeMar DeRozan had a career year and I can see him having a big game in this spot. One key for the Wiz is that they shot 37.5% or better from three-point range in three of the games against the Raptors in the regular season. 8* Over Wizards/Raptors

10* Under Sixers/Hawks (7:35 ET): The famed "process" in Philadelphia has succeeded beyond anyone's wildest imagination this season as the 76ers will finish either third or fourth in the Eastern Conference standings, depending on the results of the next two days. The team has won a remarkable 14 straight games and leads Cleveland by one-half game w/ two to play themselves and the Cavs having only one more game left on the schedule. Atlanta is not going to the playoffs as they have the worst overall record in the Eastern Conference (tied w/ Orlando). This game looks like a mismatch on paper, but the line is also inflated. So to the total we go.

Over its last five games, Philly has averaged over 119 PPG. They are shooting 51% from the field during that time. However, the last game was low-scoring as they beat Dallas 109-97 and did not cover as 13-pt chalk. It was the second straight game they did not cover after covering nine in a row. A win tonight would set a new franchise record. Keep in mind that they are w/o Joel Embiid. But its a deep team that has seven double digit scorers. Still, it will be difficult for them alone to carry this game Over the total. For instance, the last meeting w/ the Hawks was a 101-91 final in their favor. 

Atlanta is off a rare win here as they beat injury-plagued Boston 112-106 on Sunday. It was actually their second straight win as they also won at Washington on Friday. They were 10.5 and 9.5 point underdogs, respectively, in those two games. Note that they had failed to top 100 points in any of their four games prior to those two upsets. The Hawks are 12-4 Under when coming off a SU win as a dog and also 4-1 Under in April. The average number of points each team scores and allows combined does not exceed the O/U line here. 10* Under Sixers/Hawks

10* Under Pelicans/Clippers (10:35 ET): The Clippers are out of the playoff race while the Pelicans are one of five teams in the West fighting for the final four playoff spots and that quintet is separated by all of two games. Hence the line here where New Orleans is a significant road favorite as they are the team that "has to win." They are currently fifth in the pecking order in the West, but tied w/ both San Antonio and Oklahoma City. So a loss here could result in them being as low as seventh by the end of the night. I have zero interest in laying the inflated number here, but I do like the total as the number seems too high despite the way most Pelicans games go.

New Orleans allows and scores more than 110 points per game. They are the ONLY team in the league that can claim that. They've also topped 120 pts in three consecutive games. That said, the average number of total points scored in their games does not exceed the total for tonight. Two nights ago vs. Golden State, they shot a blistering 56.3% from the floor. Hard to imagine them approaching that number here tonight even though the Clippers just allowed 134 pts in their last game. They allowed the Nuggets to shoot 62.4% from the floor, a number that will without question come down here. 

We've established that there's valid reasoning for this total being so high. New Orleans has gone Over in three straight and the Over is 47-33 in all games this season. Denver has gone Over in four straight. But the recent numbers also simply cannot be maintained. It is curious that this total is actually lower than it was last month when the teams met. Expect this one to stay Under the total. 10* Under Pelicans/Clippers

8* Over Pistons/Grizzlies (3:35 ET): Detroit has been officially eliminated from playoff contention as we now know the eight teams that will be in the postseason from the Eastern Conference (unlike the Western Conf where only three spots are clinched). With the relatively "meaningless" nature of this contest, I expect little in the way of defensive intensity and thus Over seems like a logical call on a low total. Memphis has of course been long out of contention as they've hit a nadir that is as low as any team has experienced all season. They just lost at home to Sacramento to fall to 3-27 SU the last 30 games. The Friday game was quite low scoring and while the Grizz are dead last in the league in scoring, I see this one sneaking Over the number. 

Memphis has actually failed to score 100 pts in four consecutive games, all losses. Neither they nor Sacramento shot terribly in Friday's 94-93 game, so that final score is a bit head scratching. Also consider that it was just 68-63 going into the fourth quarter. A big thing was each team shooting only 25% from three-point range and there also weren't a ton of free throws attempted in the game. One positive here for Memphis is that Detroit is not particularly adept at defending the three-point line, particularly on the road where opponents are shooting at over a 37% clip. Overall, the Pistons are not a good defensive team, though recent opponents have happened to shoot pretty poorly. 

Detroit has averaged over 109 points its last five games and shoots better than 37 percent itself from three-point range for the season. So that's the bad news for Memphis. Note Detroit's 113-106 win over Dallas on Friday did go to overtime. (Though the Over was a winner at the end of regulation). The Pistons shot 50% against Dallas. Note that in the first meeting, the game did sneak Over a similar total w/ the Pistons winning 104-102. Looking at both teams' season averages, the total number of points scored and allowed exceed this total. 8* Over Pistons/Grizzlies

10* Over Mavs/Magic (7:05 ET): Dallas rewarded me last night by beating Portland outright, 115-109, as 8.5-pt dogs. It was their highest scoring effort in some time as you'd have to go all the way back to March 16th to find the last time they scored 115 pts in a game. Not only that, but they'd been held under 100 in four of the five games previous to last night. While a team that's simply "playing out the string" at this point, note the Mavericks are far better than their record shows. I've made this point numerous times this year as their YTD point differential is indicative of a 31-win team, not a 24-win one (current record is 24-53). They are much closer in point differential to the 33-43 Lakers then they are to any of the other three "bottom-feeders" in the Western Conference. We're talking a per game point differential of only -2.5. 

Orlando also won last night, albeit in far more commanding (and low-scoring!) fashion. They clobbered the Knicks 97-73 thanks to a big second half where they held NY to only 28 points total! Incredibly, the Knicks missed 14 of their last 17 shots from the field, taking what was only a five-point game and transforming it into a total beatdown. The victory was among the Magic's most lopsided all season and in fact it was their first by double digits in nearly two months. But this is NOT a team to be trusted coming off a SU win (7-15 SU/6-15-1 ATS this season in that role) nor as anything resembling home chalk (1-10-1 ATS when favored at home this season). 

Thus, my kneejerk reaction is to take the Mavs in this spot, but on the road and off a win, isn't exactly the most ideal spot for them either. It's actually the total that caught my eye here as both teams have been involved in a string of low-scoring efforts recently. That isn't likely to continue and in the case of the Mavs, we saw a far more high scoring affair just last night. It's not as if either of these sides are stingy defensively as Dallas gives up 106.6 PPG on the road while Orlando is giving up 108.2 PPG for the season. The Magic's last three games have shockingly seen neither they nor the opponent score 100 pts. That's also happened five times in their last seven games overall! That's something that's very rare in today's NBA and it's happened despite the Magic making at least 10 three-pointers in five of the last six games! Given the fact that neither team has anything to play for here, expect a more wide-open game. Last night was the fewest points allowed by the Magic in a game since 2012, so defensively they'll regress here. When these teams met in January, the O/U line was significantly higher (Mavs won 114-99), so there's some value here as well. 10* Over Mavs/Magic

10* Over Bulls/Magic (7:05 ET): The last 10 times these teams have met, the Under has cashed every time. That's quite the streak. I'm going to lean not only on the "just due factor," but the fact that these two bottom-feeders aren't likely to play much defense in this relatively meaningless March affair. Yes, I'm going w/ the Over. Chicago played last night and for the third consecutive game failed to score 100 points (lost 103-92 to Miami). Even though the Bulls are 29th in offensive efficiency, going three consecutive games w/o scoring 100 pts is pretty uncommon in today's NBA. Even with all the blantant tanking that's going on the Windy City, the team still averages 103.1 PPG this season. They also are allowing 113.1 PPG on the road, which is just as key to this play. Orlando is no stalwart defensively either as they allow 109.1 PPG overall this season. Over is the play.

This game does carry some minor importance for the Magic as they are looking to avoid a season sweep at the hands of the Bulls. Three times these teams have met in 2017-18 and on every occasion, Chicago has emerged triumphant. The first two were blowouts w/ the Bulls winning by an average of 20 PPG. Things were a much closer last month in a 105-101 final. Orlando's big problem in the three matchups has been poor three-point shooting. They have gone an ugly 25 of 93 in the three games. That's an ugly 26.8% overall. While not the best three-point shooting team in the league, the Magic are at least making 35% of their attempts from behind the arc for the season. So I expect some pretty significant improvement in this department tonight. Chicago is allowing 37.1% shooting from three-point range for the year. Orlando was 11 of 31 in its last game.

We can't really trust the Magic to cover here as they're a woeful 1-9-1 ATS as a home favorite this season. Furthermore, they just lost here to Brooklyn Wednesday night, 111-104 (were 2.5-pt underdogs). Recent Magic opponents had NOT shot the ball well. But Brooklyn made 12 three-pointers and shot 46.0% from the field. Even still, the last five Orlando opponents are only shooting 43.4% overall. That's not normal as this is a bottom 10 team in defensive efficiency (Chicago is bottom five). So, again, don't be surprised if the Bulls score more than anticipated here. The Over is 22-15 in Bulls' road games this season. Before last night, they had allowed 110 or more points in nine straight games. 10* Over Bulls/Magic

10* Over Pacers/Kings (10:05 ET): Homecourt advantage for a first round playoff series is a very real possibility for the Pacers. They are currently fifth in the East, but only a half game back of (admittedly red hot) Philadelphia and a full game back of Cleveland. So finishing as high as third in the Eastern Conference is not out of the realm of possibility. No one expected this team to make the playoffs this season (myself included), so tip your cap no matter where the team finishes. Speaking of teams no one expected to make the playoffs this year, I bring to you the Kings. The difference between Indiana and Sacramento though is that the latter has "made good" on its prognostication. The Kings are simply one of the worst teams the league has to offer. 

It's been a tumultuous scene outside of the arena in Sacramento w/ large protests taking place over the killing of an unarmed civilian by police. The last two Kings' home games have been sparsely attended, not that there's any sort of huge demand to get in the building anyway. The team has lost both, failing to even score 100 pts either time. (I successfully played against them Tuesday vs. Dallas). As mentioned in the analysis for that game, the Kings are one of only two teams in the league currently not averaging 100 PPG. They've actually failed to hit triple digits in five of their last six games, though they've never been held below 90 pts. 

This is a pretty low total by 2018 NBA standards. In addition to Sacramento's anemic offense, another contributing factor to that has to be Indiana's 12-2 Under record this month. The Pacers' last game was a 92-81 final over injury-riddled Golden State. But something else to consider is that the Kings also rank 28th in defensive efficiency. It's been awhile since they've faced a team w/ any kind of potent offense and I expect Indiana to come in here tonight and score plenty of points. The first meeting between these teams took place all the way back on Halloween and the Kings made only two three-pointers and seven free throws! They'll certainly improve upon that tonight and they'll shoot better than they did Tuesday (40%) as well. Take the Over. 10* Over Pacers/Kings  

8* Over Heat/Thunder (8:05 ET): This is an important game for both teams, who are each fighting to strengthen their playoff position in the two respective conferences. Miami comes in at 7th in the East, having won three straight. One of those wins (over the Lakers) was by a single point and another in double OT (vs. Denver). So it's hardly been a dominant stretch of basketball, though they did beat the Knicks by 21 on Wednesday (but that was at home). Oklahoma City is currently tied for 4th (w/ New Orleans) in the far tougher West, so earning homecourt advantage for a 1st rd playoff series is the goal here. But while the Thunder are only two games back of third place Portland, they're actualy closer to being the 8-seed (only 1.5 games difference). So a loss for them here could prove deadly. 

I think the pointspread is just right here, so I'm not making a play on that. Instead, let's look at the total. Miami's recent averages are obviously skewed by the double overtime game vs. Denver. But, two other times in the L5 games, they have scored 119 pts in regulation. They've shot 55% from the floor in the last two games - combined. While it's a "tough ask" to call for such a percentage yet again, Oklahoma City hasn't exactly been defending well recently. Over their last five games, the Thunder are giving up an average of 109.2 PPG. Now that number is a little skewed by a 132-125 win in Toronto last weekend, but this is a team that has given up 100+ pts in 13 of its last 16 games. 

Of course, OKC can score w/ the best of them as well. They did not shoot the ball well in a disappointing one-point loss to short-handed Boston on Tuesday (just 41.2 FG%). But keep in mind that the Celtics are also the best defensive team in the league. I fully anticipate some sort of "offensive bounce-back" from the Thunder tonight, especially playing at home where they average 108.0 PPG. At Toronto, they shot better than 55% from the floor. A huge factor for the Thunder as of late has been the arrival of Corey Brewer, who has come in and shot 38.2% from three-point range since signing (7 games). Miami is going to be w/o its best defender in this game (Hassan Whiteside) and has struggled to beat the top teams in the Western Conference this year. Though the last seven meetings between these teams have all gone Under, I see a different result taking place tonight. 8* Over Heat/Thunder

10* Under Clippers/T'wolves (8:05 ET): All of a sudden, this has become somewhat of a "do or die" type game in the Western Conference playoff picture. It wasn't that long ago that Minnesota making the playoffs was considered a mere formality, but it seems as if everyone else (particularly Portland and Utah) have gotten hot at the right time and that has coincided w/ a dip from the T'wolves, who are still w/o their best player, Jimmy Butler. (Butler's absence completely coincides w/ the dip). They now find themselves in 8th place in the West, only two games in front of the 9th place Clippers. So a lot is on the line here and I expect a more "playoff-like" intensity here, meaning better defense and less scoring. Take the Under. 

I fell for the Clippers on Sunday night as they were actually favored against the red-hot Blazers. That was a mistake as LA was outclassed at home and would lose by a score of 122-109. It was the team's third loss in a row, although the teams that beat them were: Houston, OKC and Portland, not exactly an easy group of teams to walk away w/ a win against. The Clips have now given up 120+ pts in B2B games and have to face a top 5 team in offensive efficiency. But Minnesota has been a little limited on that end w/o Butler, even though they did just score 120 in their own loss to Houston on Sunday (here at home). 

So the Clippers have gone Over in B2B games and Minnesota three straight. These two teams have met three times before this season and all three games have gone Over the total. But tonight's O/U line is - by far - the highest to date. The last meeting took place back in January and saw the Clippers (were at home) shoot a blistering 56 percent from the field. They still lost, mind you, 126-118 as the T'wolves attempted 39 free throws and made 33. I expect all of these numbers to come down tonight. Plus, Andrew Wiggins and Jeff Teague combined for 70 pts for Minnesota in that last meeting. That's unlikely to happen again either. This is a pretty high O/U line from both teams perspective as neither's games average anywhere close to what the oddsmakers' number is currently set at. 10* Under Clippers/T'wolves

10* Under Pelicans/Kings (10:05 ET): Somebody break up the Pelicans! This team is on fire right now, having won nine in a row to climb up to fourth in the Western Conference (ahead of Minnesota, San Antonio and OKC!). They have an inferior YTD point differential compared to the teams they are competing w/ for seeding, but that hasn't mattered lately thanks to a string of high-scoring performances, including a 121-116 road win over the Clippers last night. Incredibly, the team has topped 120 points in all nine wins during the active streak, averaging an insane 126.1 PPG during that time. That level of scoring HAS to start coming down sooner or later and looking at tonight's dance partner, I see an Under being in the cards.

Given how much they've been scoring, it should not come as a shock to hear that NO has also gone Over in seven straight games. When it comes to scoring, they've been remarkably consistent since the All-Star Break, scoring in the 121-126 range all six games. Note, however, that two of those games did go into overtime. That would be the first two post-Break, wins over Miami and Milwaukee. Really, when you look at the schedule, it shouldn't come as a huge surprise that the Pelicans have been able to win nine in a row. They've been a dog four times, yes, but looking back those were clearly all "bad" lines. Certainly, I'm not going to argue w/ them being a road favorite tonight, given all Sacramento's woes. Furthermore, the total should be high considering the Pelicans are the ONLY team in the league to be scoring and allowing over 111 PPG this season.

But Sacramento's involvement here is what lends to a play on the Under. The Kings are 30th in the league in offensive efficiency and one of only two teams that don't average 100 PPG. Defensively, they're not good either, but even so their games average only 206.2 PPG. They've been held to 102 pts or less in four of the last five games, though they are off a rare win (beat the Knicks 102-99 on Sunday). By the way, that one game in the last five where the Kings managed to score more was an overtime game vs. Brooklyn. It was tied 100-100 at the end of regulation. So like New Orleans, recent scoring has been inflated by games going into OT. This O/U line just seems too high. 10* Under Pelicans/Kings

10* Under Lakers/Heat (7:35 ET): Whereas many of the league's bottom-feeders had terrible months, the Lakers had themselves a pretty nice February, going 7-3 straight up and 8-2 against the spread! They've won and covered three in a row, the last two coming as road favorites (although the opponents were Sacramento and Atlanta). Prior to January 5th, the team didn't have a single three-game win streak to its name this season, but they've done it four times since then. Overall, they're 15-7 SU the L22 games and tonight they go for their fourth four-game wins streak during that time. They'll be in Miami, facing a Heat team that pulled off a miracle on Tuesday, beating Philadelphia at the buzzer. While they failed to cover, the Heat had previously covered five in a row. Four of their last five games have been decided by three points or less.

When it comes to tonight's total, something had to give as you have a Lakers team that's been scoring a lot recently against a Heat team whose games are typically low scoring. The result is an O/U line somewhere "in the middle" of where we usually see Lakers and Heat totals. Now the Lakers have gone Over in six straight, which inflates a line that is already high from Miami's perspective. Over those L6 games, LA has averaged 118.5 PPG, well above their season average of 107.9 PPG. At the same time, they're also giving up an average of that is far higher than usual. The L6 games have seen them allow 117 PPG. While not a great defensive team, the Lakers are "only" allowing 109.9 PPG for the season. Sooner rather than later, these numbers are going to move back to season-long norms.

Miami has also been scoring and allowing more points per game than usual, of late. They only average 101.1 PPG for the year, but have been at 110.8 the L5 games. They only give up 101.6 PPG for the year, but have been at 106.6 the L5 games. Now those recent averages have been skewed by an overtime game against New Orleans on 2.23. Since then, they've played two games where 203 and 204 total pts were scored. The final game before the All-Star Break saw 206. The Heat are 7th in defensive efficiency and the Lakers are a surprising 11th, so look for this game to be lower scoring than expected. 10* Under Lakers/Heat

8* Under Thunder/Mavs (8:35 ET): After a brief stop home (where they beat Orlando) Monday night, the Thunder are set to hit the road again for three more games, starting tonight w/ this stop in Dallas. OKC badly needed that win over the Magic as they were coming off a humbling 32-point defeat at the hands of Golden State. That was the end of another three-game trip, though it began before the All-Star Break. This is probably another "must win" as the Thunder currently are tied for sixth in the Western Conference, which is disappointing considering they have three All-Star caliber players on the roster. But this team has not been good at the pay window this year, thus I'll avoid laying the points. I like the Under instead. 

Dallas is not in a good place right now as owner Mark Cuban has been fined for admitting to tanking and the entire front office is trying to move past an ugly scandal rife w/ inappropriate behavor. Somehow the team did manage to beat Indiana here at home on Monday, 109-103, as 2.5-pt home underdogs. That snapped a four-game losing streak and was just the team's third win this month. But I wouldn't expect the good times to last very long here, even if you can proclaim the Mavs the best of the West's "bad teams." This isn't a very good offensive team, by the way, as they average only 102 PPG (27th in the league). But on the other end of the floor, I expect improvement tonight. The L5 games have seen them allow an average of 108.4 PPG. At home, at least they've been pretty solid defensively this year, giving up only 102.7 PPG. 

OKC will also play better defensively here than they did Monday. Orlando actually shot 56% in the 1H and went into the break w/ 62 points! But from there, the Thunder shut them down and was able to win 112-105. This is a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and typically they allow fewer points than what they've given up recently. The L2 meetings between these teams have gone very differently w/ one being high scoring and the other low scoring. Both were won by Dallas! Regardless, the totals for both of those games were substantially lower. The Mavs are 32-13 Under the L3 seasons coming off a SU win as a dog and have gone 9-3 Under their L12 games against teams w/ winning records. 8* Under Thunder/Mavs

8* Under Raptors/Magic (7:05 ET): Helping drive this O/U line up is the fact Toronto is 5-0 Over its L5 games, averaging over 120 PPG. This is a high-scoring team, but they've been at or above their season average for seven consecutive games now and eventually that streak has to come to an end. Tonight brings a seemingly "easy" matchup w/ the Magic, who have lost six in a row, but they've been competitive in those losses. These teams have not met previously this season, so there will be a small sense of unfamiliarity here. Orlando's last six games have all season both they and the opponent top 100+ pts. That's another streak likely to end sooner than later, so I'm taking the Under tonight.

Toronto has shot the ball extremely well since the All-Star Break. They made 52.5% of their FG attempts against Detroit the other night in a 123-94 beatdown. But that was also at home where they are averaging 113.3 PPG for the year. In fact, the Raptors have the best home point differential in the league this year. This is a road game and I don't expect the shots to fall w/ that kind of regularity. Yes, they have scored 100 or more in 12 straight games and Monday was the 19th time they went overe 120 this season. But keep in mind that in their first game back from the All-Star Break, they missed 25 of 34 attempts in a 122-119 loss to Milwaukee. The amount of scoring in that game is skewed because it went into overtime. 

Orlando is no offensive juggernaut, though they are averaging over 105 PPG for the year. Lost in the conversation about Toronto's offense is that they've also been defending well of late. Five of their last eight opponents have failed to reach 100 pts. Only two of the last eight opponents have shot better than 43% or better from the field. So, I wouldn't expect a banner offensive day here from Magic. A bad sign here for Orlando is they shot 56% from the field in the 1H vs. OKC on Monday (scored 62 pts) and still lost. There's no way they'll be that prolific again here. 8* Under Raptors/Magic

8* Under Clippers/Nuggets (10:35 ET): This is a big game, worthy of national TV coverage (it's on TNT). Denver currently leads the Clippers by one game, an advantage that would obviously go away w/ a loss here, for eighth place in the Western Conference. As we know, it's the top eight that make the playoffs. I've been impressed w/ how the Clippers have played since trading Blake Griffin to Detroit, especially on this road trip which ends tonight. The trip, which began before the All-Star Break (on 2.9), has seen them go 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS w/ the only losses coming at Philadelphia (who has been hot) and Golden State (no explanation needed). Though a seventh straight road game sounds really brutal (especially in high elevation), the Clips have had the last three days off, not to mention the All-Star Break mixed in. 

Denver is playing its third straight home game. Coming out of the Break, they've split against the Spurs and Rockets, which is fine when you consider that level of opposition. They did allow 119 pts in both games, which is not good, but my guess is we'll start to see some defensive improvement tonight. In the last six games, the Nuggets have allowed an average of 118.8 PPG. All six games have gone Over the total and the team is 10-1 Over its L11 games. But, at home, the Nuggets allow only 104.9 PPG for the season. So the likelihood of regression to the mean seems strong here. Same thing w/ the Nuggets offense, which has been scoring more than usual of late. Overall, their games are averaging just over 215 PPG for the season. This will be just the fourth game w/ an OU line of 230+ for them in 2017-18. 

Meanwhile, the Clippers have scored 129,127 and 128 points their last three games! How likely is that to continue? Not very, in my opinion. Those were three easy Overs obviously, but since the Break they faced Golden State (top offensive team) and Phoenix (worst defensive team). Consider that when these teams met last month, the total was nearly 15 pts lower and still stayed Under. That means we've got some serious value here as both teams are due to return to their "normal" levels of scoring. 8* Under Clippers/Nuggets

8* Under Mavs/Lakers (10:35 ET): It was certainly an "interesting" All-Star Break for the Mavs considering their non-descript 1st half to the season would make you think they were one of the least likely candidates to "make noise" during the week off. Of course, said "noise" was not positive as scandal has rocked the front office and owner Mark Cuban has admitted to actively promoting tanking. The Mavs are currently one of four teams in the Western Conference to be tied w/ only 18 wins and while the metrics may suggest they are the "best" of the lot (faint praise, I know!), I'm somewhat afraid the darkest days have yet to hit in "Big D." They open here against a Lakers team that's kind of in a "no-man's land" as the playoffs are not a real possibility, but they're also clearly better than the four 18-win teams.

Two weeks ago these two played and it was a 130-123 win for Dallas. The Mavs' scored at least 30 pts in all four quarters and the Lakers weren't too far behind, scoring 28+. Dirk Nowitzki scored a season-high 22 points in the win. Both teams shot about 54% from the floor and there were 28 total three-pointers made. I would not look for a repeat of that here. Dallas plays at one of the five slowest paces in the league and the Lakers are bottom five in offensive efficiency. When they met in January, the game stayed Under even w/ OT. The totals for those last two matchups were both 213.5. As you can see, the number is substantially higher here.

The Lakers are inconsistent on the defensive end, but still rank in the top half of the league in efficiency. Aside from what happened in the last meeting, Dallas is not a great offensive team. That was obvious in the two games that followed, which saw them score only 97 and 109 pts in losses to Houston and Sacramento. On the road, they barely average over 100 PPG. There could be issues w/ the Lakers offensively as well as Isaiah Thomas is still working his way into the offense and Lonzo Ball may return tonight as well. Those are two players who need the ball in their hands, so it could have an adverse effect on the rest of the team. 8* Under Mavs/Lakers

8* Under Clippers/Suns (9:05 ET): Last night's result has certainly encouraged Over betting for tonight's Clippers tilt. Thursday saw them allow 134 in a loss to the Warriors, but it won't be the two-time champs they're facing tonight, rather it's an opponent at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Prior to the All-Star Break, Phoenix was making its "case" to be considered the worst team in the sport as they've lost seven in a row and 12 of the last 13. The last five games have seen them outscored by an average of 26.6 points per game. That's landed them at the bottom of my own personal power rankings, but for tonight I'm more interested in the total. This number (which was too high to begin with) has been bet up far too much. Take the Over.

Five times during the seven-game losing streak, the Suns have not even broken 100 pts. On offense, they are 29th in efficiency for the season, so this is a major drop in class for the Clippers' defense, which simply had no answer for the Warriors last night. Steph Curry had 44 pts as the Dubs shot 62.7% as a team and made 14 of 25 three-point attempts. There were also a combined 68 free throws attempted in the game (34 for each side). Most, if not all, of those elements are "non-repeatable" tonight. Phoenix lacks a player like Curry that can "go off" (ok, maybe Devin Booker) and they are shooting just over 40 percent from the field the L5 games. The last time they faced the Clippers, they scored only 95 points on 36.1% shooting.

That last meeting, which took place in December, saw a total of 215. That's substantially lower than what we're getting here. Both meetings this season between these two have stayed Under. Those were both in LA. The L4 meetings in Phoenix have all gone Over, but I expect something different here as the Clips are likely "bushed" after last night's game. I still expect defensive improvement, simply based on the change in opponent, but the offense should decline as well. The Clips have shot 50% or better from the floor each of the last three games and simply are "due" for an off-shooting night. The team is just 1-7 SU in the second night of a back to back this season, averaging only 101.6 points per game. 8* Under Clippers/Suns

10* Under T'wolves/Rockets (8:05 ET): There's a lot going on here. Houston went into the Break red hot having won 10 in a row. Even w/ Golden State winning last night, the Rockets remain percentage points ahead of the Warriors for the top spot in the Western Conference. They have a slightly better point differential for the year, thus there needs to be a very real conversation over Houston's chances of making it to the NBA Finals. Tonight, they'll host a good Minnesota team that is currently tied for 3rd (w/ San Antonio). Not only have the T'wolves met their lofty preseason expectations, they've arguably exceeded them. Clearly, the elements for a high-scoring affair are present in this one. But I look at that total and to me, the number screams "too high." Take the Under. 

Prior to the Break, Minnesota's last six games all went Over the total. That, along w/ the opponent, explains why the O/U line is so high tonight. Minnesota's last five games have seen an average of 238 total points per game scored, but that includes a wild OT affair w/ Cleveland that they lost 140-138. For the season, the average number of PPG scored when the T'wolves are involved is closer to 215. Now, up in Minnesota two weeks ago, these teams met and Houston won 126-108. The O/U line for that game wasn't quite as high as it is here. Both teams shot well in that game w/ Houston making 22 of its 47 three-point attempts to boot. I can't see that happening again, especially in the first game back from a long layoff. 

Over its last five games, Houston has allowed an average of just 100.2 PPG. That's better than usual, but not dramatically so. Even for them, this is a pretty high total. Note that in that last meeting, 10 of those 22 three-pointers made came in the 4Q. That's a performance that is unlikely to be repeated. Like the T'wolves, the Rockets' average number of total PPG comes up short of the number tonight. Their games average 219.5 PPG. One thing working in our favor here is Minnesota ranks near the bottom of the league in three-pointers made. They made only six the last game vs. Houston and that's not too much below the season average. Assuming Houston cools off from downtown, this will be a lower scoring game than two weeks ago. 10* Under T'wolves/Rockets

8* Under Clippers/Warriors (10:35 ET): It sure is nice to have the NBA back. Right out the box, we get a TNT doubleheader, the second game featuring the Clippers and Warriors. This had been a big rivalry the last few seasons, but it's taken a considerable hit due to the Dubs' clear superiority. The Clippers looking poised for a rebuild (traded Blake Griffin to Detroit) doesn't help matters either. But I'm not interested in laying double digits w/ anyone in the first game back after such a long break. Nor am I interested in calling for a game to be as high scoring as the oddsmakers are thinking here. Last time these teams met (in January), the O/U line was 218.5. So there's been a sizable adjustment since. Take the Under.

Now there is a good reason for said adjustment and that's the last six meetings between these two have all gone Over. But a 125-106 surprise win by the Clippers on 1.18 would not have gone Over tonight's total. That game saw both teams shoot pretty well, though Golden State did not hit their season-long average of 115.8 points per game. Still, even w/ their games being the highest scoring on average in the league, we're talking about 223.5 PPG, which is well below what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight. At home, it's a slightly less number of points per game, thanks to the defensive end. Golden State never gets enough credit for their work on the defensive end of the floor, by the way. They are #5 currently in defensive efficiency.

Before the All-Star Break, eight of the Clippers' last nine games stayed Under. The lone exception came in the final game where they scored 129 pts on Boston of all opponents. The Celtics are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency, but were definitely having their problems going into the Break. I don't see any such problems for the Warriors here. The Clips are 8-3 Under this season w/ a total north of 220 points and the only game w/ a total of 230+ was against Houston and also stayed Under. After such a long break, don't be surprised if both offenses come out a bit rusty. Granted, several Warriors participated in the All-Star Game, but there's a big difference between that and "real" live NBA competition. Golden State has had "1st Quarter issues" this season in that they've actually fallen behind in 17 of the last 30 games. 8* Under Clippers/Warriors

8* Under Lakers/T'wolves (9:05 ET): A high total was to be expected here considering Minnesota has gone Over in five straight while the Lakers have been gashed for 130+ pts in each of the last two games (obviously both Overs as well). But we've now reached a point where I believe there's value to be had on the Under in this final game before the All-Star Break. Yes, Minnesota's offensive/defensive splits have led them to going Over more than Under this season. But before the current streak began, that record was essentially dead even. Their games, while typically high scoring, average "only" 216.3 total points per game. Same for the Lakers, whose total PPG average is 217.3. Take the Under. 

Defensively, the Lakers were a disaster last season (worst efficiency in the league). At times, that's reared its ugly head again this year, particularly in the losses. However, generally speaking, Luke Walton has them playing better at that end of the floor this year. They rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency even after what's happened the last two games. Both New Orleans and Dallas shot better than 53% from the floor and combined to make 26 three-pointers. But that came on the heels of two stellar defensive efforts, one against Phoenix and the other against OKC. In those games, the Lakers allowed FG%'s below 39.0 and neither opponent shot well from three-point range. One good thing here is Minnesota is second to last in the league in three-pointers made on a per gaem basis w/ 7.9. The Lakers aren't world-beaters in that department either, ranking 23rd. 

Incredibly, the Over has gone 23-5 in the T'wolves last 28 February games. They are coming off a matchup w/ the Rockets (lost 126-108), so no surprise that was a high-scoring game. Giving up 42 fourth quarter points is what killed the T'wolves there. But that won't be an issue here. The last five games have also seen Minnesota average over 117 PPG. They average 109.6 PPG for the year. They've also given up an average of 118.6, which is well above their season average and especially what they give up per game at home (104.2). Despite recent form, I look for this game to be lower scoring than expected. 8* Under Lakers/T'wolves

10* Under Rockets/T'wolves (8:05 ET): Certainly the potential for a high-scoring affair is there w/ the second and third most efficient offenses in the game matching up. But oddsmakers are keen to this as well and have opened the O/U line very high for this matchup. The average Houston game nor the average Minnesota game averages the number of points per game in question here. Furthemore, a meeting between these two teams last month (won by the Rockets, in Houston) saw "only" 214 total pts scored (116-98 final score). I don't see an Over here either in what should be a "playoff-like atmosphere." Take the Under. 

Houston has won eight in a row and now trails Golden State by just one game in the race for the top spot in the Western Conference. They have both a slightly better YTD point differential and offensive efficiency rating than the Warriors, both the best such marks in the league. They are also a surprising 8th in defensive efficiency. Clearly, they have emerged as the top threat to the Dubs. They lead the league in number of three-pointers made per game, but were a surprising 13 of 45 in the win over Dallas on Sunday. That game, a 104-97 final, saw their defense lead the way by holding the Mavericks to 40.9% shooting. The Rockets haven't let a single opponent shoot 50% in a game this month.

Minnnesota will likely head into the All-Star Break as a top four team in the Western Conference. They are currently fourth, but only one-half game behind San Antonio. The upside here looks tremendous w/ the offense ranking third in efficiency despite ranking near the bottom of the league in three-pointers made. Defensively, there is some work that needs to be done. The T'wolves' last four games have all gone Over, but before that it was four straight Unders. Before that was another four-game Over streak. So if the pattern holds, an Under will be in store tonight. It's not just that, however. Defensively, the team allows only 103.5 PPG at home, which is alot more respective than what we've seen recently as they've allowed an average of 111.2 points the last four games. But that number is heavily skewed by the overtime game against Cleveland, which was a 140-138 loss. 10* Under Rockets/T'wolves

8* Over Hawks/Bucks (8:05 ET): "At long last," we finally saw Milwaukee's long Under streak come to an end Saturday (at nine games) when they downed Orlando 111-105. I had the Over there and as I said in my analysis, the defensive improvement we've seen from the Bucks post-Jason Kidd firing was bound not to last. Before the win over Orlando, the team had held seven of its previous eight opponents under 100 pts, which is extremely rare in this league. Over the past five games, their opponents have shot just 40.8% from the field and averaged 93.6 points per game. Orlando, who is not a good team, was above those numbers on Saturday, so there's no reason the Hawks can't do the same. Take the Over.

Atlanta is actually off a win here as they beat Detroit 118-115 on Sunday, at home. Going 32 of 37 from the free throw line certainly helped. However, that was also the fifth time in the last seven games that the Hawks scored at least 107 pts. This is not a good road team (5-22 straight up!), but that has a lot to do w/ the defense. For the year, they give up 109.3 PPG away from home, which actually isn't that much higher than what they give up overall (108.1 PPG). They rank 26th in defensive efficiency. Four times in those last seven games, they've allowed 115 or more points. They've given up 123 and 115 in the last two, respectively.

These teams have not met since the end of October. It was in Atlanta and Milwaukee won 117-106 . They shredded the Hawks' defense to the tune of 54.5% shooting, including 13 of 26 from three-point range. One thing you usually can count on is the Bucks' offense as they are shooting 47.8 percent overall, including 48.6 percent here at home. Their own scoring has been down recently, coinciding w/ the defensive surge. Again, just like defensive regression, I expect the offensive numbers to start going up. Jabari Parker is expected back in the lineup tonight after sitting out Saturday. He's played four games since returning from an ACL injury and averaged a solid 9.3 points per game. Note Atlanta is 10-5 this season after allowing 115+ points and 4-2 Over after scoring 115+ points. 8* Over Hawks/Bucks

10* Over Magic/Bulls (8:05 ET): Call it the "gambler's fallacy," but this play boils down to the fact Orlando and Chicago have a long (bizarre?) history of going Under against one another and that's bound to end at some point. Nine straight meetings between the two sides have stayed Under, which has to be one of the longest active, head to head streaks in the league. However, it's more than just the "just due" factor that leads me to believe we'll be seeing an Over here. For the season, Orlando's defense tends to be very bad (111.8 PPG allowed) on the road and their recent defensive efforts (which have been good) were due not to last. That's why I played (and won w/) the Over in their last game, a 111-104 loss to Milwaukee.

For me, Chicago has been a bottom rung team all season long. But this current stretch ranks right up there w/ their very worst. They've dropped eight of nine coming into tonight w/ the only win coming by a single point (over Minnesota). Even that win saw them fall behind by as many as 17 points. The Bulls latest "effort" was one of the worst of the entire losing skid as they fell 101-90 to Washington, here at home. They shot only 42.5% in the loss and the game easily stayed Under. It was the latest in a long-line of poor shooting efforts from Chicago, but perhaps a visit from Orlando will be what cures them (see defensive numbers above) as the Magic are allowing opponents to shoot right around 48% YTD. 

Chicago is no "great shakes" defensively either. In fact, both teams allow more than 109 PPG in all games this season. It's a little strange that Orlando's Over record isn't a little "better" away from home, given they both score and allow more points per game here than at home. The average Magic road game sees 218.4 points scored. In terms of points allowed, both teams rank in the bottom seven in the league. So again, despite the head to head history here, calling for a high-scoring game here is not w/o logic. The Magic also average 106.6 PPG on the road. At one point Saturday vs. Milwaukee, they missed 14 straight three-pointers. That won't happen again here. Nor will Chicago endure another 0 for 7 stretch to close the game like they did against the Wizards. 10* Over Magic/Bulls

10* Over Bucks/Magic (8:05 ET): It's been a rather significant defensive resurgence post-Jason Kidd firing as they've now held seven of their last eight opponents, including the last four, below 100 pts. However, last night saw the offensive betray them in an ugly 91-85 loss to Miami. It was the third quarter in particular that cost them as they were outscored 30-9. They also missed 14 of 20 three-pointers for the game. They've now gone Under in nine consecutive games as well as 14 of the past 16. I cannot see this continuing. The last five games have seen them allow an average of only 94.4 PPG, which is rougly 10 PPG below their season average. At the same time, they're also scoring about 10 PPG less than their season average those L5 games. Take the Over here as the number is more than 10 pts lower than what it was when these teams faced off last month.

Tonight sees the Magic gunning for their first four-game win streak since late 2015! They've pulled three consecutive upsets, beating Miami, Cleveland and Atlanta. They've also won four of five, averaging 110.4 PPG in the process. But offense has never really been an issue here, even w/ leading scorer Aaron Gordon currently out of the lineup. The team averages 105.7 PPG for the year and has been at 107.6 PPG the L11 games. Defensively, however, there are issues. They rank 27th in efficiency. They have allowed fewer than 100 pts in B2B games, but allowed 98 both times. This is only the second time all season we've seen the Magic do this and the first saw them allow 99 in both games. A team giving up 109.9 PPG for the season should give up its "fair share" tonight. 

When these teams met last month, it was a 111-103 final, won by Milwaukee. The Bucks shot an outrageous 41 of 62 from two-point range, but what's interesting is that neither team shot well from three-point range. They combined to go 12 for 48, exactly 25%. Orlando only shot 43.3% for the game and should easily improve upon that here, Milwaukee's recent defensive showings be damned. The Bucks also missed a lot of free throws in that last matchup, which cost Over bettors. With a far lower O/U line this time around and Milwaukee destined to see its performance move closer to season-long averages, Over is the call here. 10* Over Bucks/Magic

10* Over Bucks/Heat (8:05 ET): The Bucks' Under streak hit EIGHT in a row Tuesday as they held the Knicks (lost Kristaps Porzingis to season-ending injury during the course of the game) to just 89 points on 41.6% shooting. Apparently, Jason Kidd wasn't preaching defense because since his firing Milwaukee has transformed somewhat dramatically on that end of the floor. They've allowed 96 pts or fewer six times in the last seven games. Not coincidentally, those six times all resulted in wins and the one exception was a loss (108-89 loss to Minnesota). Speaking of streaks, tonight's opponent (Miami) has lost its last five games. This is a low total (for both teams) and I'm going Over.

While the Bucks' play on the defensive end seems to be rapidly improving, it's been just the opposite for the Heat, who have allowed 111, 111 and 109 pts respectively the L3 games. Before you ask, none of the games went to overtime either. While they did just hold Houston slightly below its scoring average of 114.0 PPG (lost 109-101), they still let the Rockets shoot 51% from the field. That was two games after letting the Pistons (not a great offensive team) shoot 52.4% from the field. For the year, teams are actually shooting a pretty healthy 46.5% against the Heat here in Miami. At the same time, the Heat have now topped 100 pts in three straight games after failing to do so six straight times. 

To me, the key here is Milwaukee's recent defensive showing is due to regress to the mean. The last five games have seen them allow only 95.2 PPG, which is well below their norm for the season, especially on the road where they are still giving up 105.8 PPG. The average number of points per game Milwaukee scores + allows is 209.2 (they both score/allow 104.6), which is well above the O/U line for tonight. The same holds true for Miami's season average, albeit to a lesser degree. You would have to go all the way back to 12.9 to find the last Bucks' game that had an O/U line below 200 pts and that game (117-110 win over Utah) easily went Over. In fact, the Bucks are a perfect 7-0 Over this season when the O/U line is below 200 points! Miami is 3-1 Over the L4 times w/ a total this low. 10* Over Bucks/Heat

10* Under Blazers/Pistons (7:05 ET): Detroit has won three straight, but still sits outside of the top eight in the Eastern Conference (one-half game behind Philadelphia). That's because prior to the current win streak, they'd lost eight in a row while going 1-7 ATS in the process. But for our purposes, the streak/trend to pay attention to is the fact they've gone Over in five consecutive games. During this time, they have averaged 110.4 points per game (well above their season average of 102.9). They've also allowed 113.0 PPG, which is also well above their season average (103.1). I view this stretch as a pretty clear "outlier" and fully expect them to regress to the mean, starting tonight. Take the Under here as the O/U line is too high.

Portland is sixth in the West, but it figures to be a tough battle for those final three playoff spots in the Conference the rest of the way. They've lost two in a row, to Toronto and Boston (two top teams in the East) and need a win here to avoid a winless trip. The Motor City has not been kind to the Blazers in recent years as they are 0-4 SU/ATS the L4 trips here. Furthermore, this is the second game of a back to back as Sunday afternoon saw them fall by one point to a Boston team that was playing w/o Kyrie Irving. Al Horford's buzzer beater for the Celtics was of course the highlight of New Englanders' day yday. That's a tough loss for Portland as they held the Celtics to just 38 pts in the first half, but wound up shooting below 40% for the game themselves. 

The acquisition of Blake Griffin can be directly tied to the Pistons' resurgence, though they've been a good home team all year and both wins w/ Griffin in the lineup have been here in Detroit. Though Griffin scored 16 pts in the win over Miami Saturday, he made only one field goal the entire second half. I just come back to the fact that in four of the previous five games, the Pistons have scored and allowed more points than what they are giving up for the season. The one time they did not (vs. Memphis), the O/U line was very low. While yday may have marked the 1st time since 12.30 that Portland failed to score 100 pts, they have given up less than triple digits in three of the last five games. These teams rank 10th and 11th respectively in defensive efficiency. 10* Under Blazers/Pistons

10* Under Hornets/Suns (3:05 ET): Charlotte has begun to gain some "momentum" (still hate that word!) w/ B2B wins, but I'm not about to fall into the "trap" until further evidence of a legit turnaround is put forth. The Hornets have burnt me before as this is arguably the unluckiest team in NBA history, considering their record in games decided by three points or less is now 0-13 SU the L2 seasons. They have only two win streaks of three games all season and both took place prior to December. So, even though I FIRMLY believe this team is better than its overall record (better point differential than the Cavs!), I'm not about to lay points with them here. Especially this many. But something has caught my eye and that concerns the total. I'll be on the Under here.

The Hornets' two wins, which came against Atlanta and Indiana, saw them total an astronomical 256 points by themselves. They've previously had some big scoring efforts this year, but the 133 against Indiana Friday night matched a season-high. They shot 53% from the field and sank 15 three-pointers. It also helped that they went 30 of 34 from the free throw line. Kemba Walker led the way w/ 41 pts and has 79 the L2 games. Now, a matchup w/ the typically "defenseless" Suns (29th in efficiency) might seem ideal, but I'm not about to discount the fact Charlotte is only 7-15 SU on the road in large part to a scoring decrease from what they average at home. They won't have the FT shooting to lean on tonight and also this is one of their highest O/U lines of the season. The only two that were higher both saw the Under come in.

Phoenix does not shoot the ball well as they are below 44% from the field even at home. Last game saw them shoot only 41.4% from the floor, not that it mattered as they got blitzed by Utah, eventually losing by a score of 129-97. But Charlotte won't come close to matching the Jazz's shooting performance from that game (56.7%!) and while the Suns do give up plenty of points (112.1 per game), they also are 14-5 Under when facing an opponent that also allows more than 106 PPG. That includes four straight. Simply put, the O/U line is too high here as Charlotte is due to be worse offensively and Phoenix is due to get better defensively. 10* Under Hornets/Suns

8* Under Thunder/Nuggets (10:35 ET): Oddsmakers continually anticipate these two teams will play a high-scoring game against one another, yet (at least recently) that hasn't been the case. The last four head to head meetings, two of those taking place this season, have all stayed Under. In fact, the two meetings this season have both seen less than 200 total pts scored. Oklahoma City, despite having three current/former All-Stars, is overrated offensively. They have recently climbed up to 9th in efficiency, but really it has been the defense (4th) that has kept them in the mix. As for Denver, they were the top Over team last year, but 30-21 Under this season. This number is too high and I'm going Under.

Now the Thunder had gone Over in five straight, but that was before losing to Washington on Tuesday, 102-96. The Wizards didn't even have John Wall in the lineup, so that's a bad loss. I had the Under in that game as OKC shot just 37.5% while holding the Wiz to 38.2% from the field. Out on the road, the Thunder's scoring average does dip down to 104.8 points per game. This is also a bad free throw shooting team (68.9% on the road!). They scored only 42 pts in the 2H Tuesday w/ Russell Westbrook scoring only 13 pts for the game. Obviously, Westbrook should score more here, but what about the rest of the team? Remember guard Andre Roberson is now done for the year and it's not like this is a very deep team. The Under is 14-9 when the Thunder face an opponent that has a winning record. 

Denver is also off a loss, by two to San Antonio. In fact, their previous three games (1 win, 2 losses) have all been decided by two pts or less (five points total). Tonight's O/U line is higher than any of the previous five games. At one point, Denver went Under in seven consecutive games in January. The Under is 16-10 in their home games w/ 211.8 total ppg scored. They typically play MUCH better defense at home, allowing almost six fewer points per game than they do on the road. Problem is the Nuggets are really banged up right now w/ Paul Milsap, Mason Plumlee and possibly Wilson Chandler all out. That will continue to affect them on the offensive end. 8* Under Thunder/Nuggets

10* Under Thunder/Wizards (7:05 ET): John Wall is unlikely to play here for the Wizards as that definitely puts them at a disadvantage when facing a talented team like the Thunder. However, even at full strength, I'm not too sure I'd trust OKC either in this spot. They are a money-burning 16-27 ATS as a favorite this season w/ 19 outright losses. If not for the Cavs, that record would look a lot worse. One thing is for sure and that's Thunder games have been a lot more high scoring of late. They've gone Over in five straight and those games have averaged an astounding 237 PPG. But I certainly look for that number to start coming down. One of those games, a 121-112 win, came against these Wizards. But I look for the rematch to be a lot more low scoring. Take the Under.

The O/U line has been raised significantly from last week's meeting in OKC. That game saw a really high scoring second half as the Thunder led 54-40 at halftime. Russell Westbrook finished w/ 46 points (season high) and the fourth quarter was particularly ridiculous as the teams combined for 77 points (39-38 Thunder). Westbrook isn't likely to match that point total tonight. Note he's been taking fewer three pointers of late. Speaking of the three-point line, Washington went 16 of 35 from behind the arc in that game. Don't look for a repeat of that either here tonight.

Washington bounced back from the loss to OKC by beating Atlanta 129-104 over the weekend. Despite not having Wall, they assisted on 40 of their 49 field goals made. But the Hawks are a bad team and the Thunder won't be scored on as easily. Something you may not know about the Thunder is that they rank sixth in the league in offensive efficiency. The Wiz had a very up and down road trip (five games). Yes, they shot 57.6% against the Hawks, but that was also two games after they shot 30.6% and scored only 75 pts in a loss to Dallas. They'll end up somewhere in between tonight. Defensively, I expect them to start improving as well. They've allowed an average of 113.6 PPG the L5 games, which is noticeably above their season long average. This would rank on the high end of O/U lines for both teams, looking at the broad spectrum for the season. 10* Under Thunder/Wizards

10* Over Heat/Mavericks (8:35 ET): By today's standards, this is a really low total for a NBA game. Rarely do we see an O/U line sub-200 pts anymore. Of course, it's not like this instance isn't w/o some justification as neither Miami nor Dallas is any kind of offensive juggernaut, plus - tempo-wise - both teams play at some of the slowest paces in the entire league (going by # of possessions per game). The Heat's last three games have all season both they and their opponent fail to score 100 pts. The Mavs have gone four consecutive games w/o hitting the century mark themselves. That all being said, the number is too low and I'm going Over. Both teams' total PPG average for the season exceeds the O/U line here.

Miami had lost two in a row, one of them to lowly Sacramento, before beating Charlotte Saturday night by a score of 95-91. It was a game where they had to rally from 15 down despite holding the Hornets (who could be cursed) to just 34.5% shooting for the game. The Heat outscored them 24-13 in the fourth quarter. I have my doubts about this Heat team considering they have a negative point differential despite being 28-21 SU overall. Looking at this game in a vaccum, however, I just can't see it being as low-scoring as the L3 games, all of which had O/U lines of 200.5 or higher. Again, four straight games of neither side scoring 100+ pts is very rare in today's game. I can't see it happening here for Miami.

Dallas started the season right near the bottom in offensive efficiency. They have improved though, now ranking a solid 17th in that category. However, they haven't shot the ball well recently and are 6-1 Under the L7 games. Their last game was just the opposite of Miami's as they blew a fourth quarter lead in Denver and lost 91-89. The Mavs have now scored 98, 97, 93 and 89 pts the last four games. Similar to the Heat (and you can call this the "just due" factor if you'd like), I just can't see such a string of low-scoring performances continuing. When these teams met for the 1st time this season, the final score was 113-101 (in favor of Miami) as both teams shot better than 50 percent and the Heat were at a ridiculous 63.9%. While they won't be that hot (pun intended!) this time around, that will be counteracted by the fact the first matchup saw just 17 free throw attempts - total! That number could easily double this time around. 10* Over Heat/Mavs

8* Over Hawks/Hornets (7:05 ET): Charlotte just can't get "out of its own way" as they lost another close one on Wednesday, at home, to the Pelicans (by a score of 101-96). That doesn't even add to their already mystifying 0-14 SU record the L2 seasons in games decided by three points or less. Something to consider when evaluating this team is that - despite their 19-27 SU record - they have the 8th best point differential in the Eastern Conference and aren't much worse than Cleveland in that department! But tonight's focus is on the total w/ their game against Atlanta. I wouldn't want to lay pts w/ Charlotte anyway, but there's a bit of history here that suggests a high-scoring game "has" to be on the horizon. Take the Over.

Here's the deal: the Under has hit the last 10 times these Southeast Division rivals have met. That's quite the streak. Now they haven't met since very early this season w/ Charlotte winning 109-91 here at home. Neither team shot particularly well in that game and the Hornets actually rallied back from a 56-49 halftime deficit. Typically, they've been on the wrong end of those kind of situations this season. Despite not shooting the ball particularly well at home, they're still averaging 105.9 PPG though. Lately, there's been an uptick in their scoring, up to 112.8 ppg, over the last five contests. They've also averaged a similar number in division games this year. They'd gone Over in four straight before the loss to the Pelicans.

Atlanta has stayed Under in each of its last five games, but the bigger story for them is that they've won three of those. However, all those games were at home. On the road, this team is giving up an average of 109.3 points per game, a big reason why they are 4-19 SU in such games. They are still a bottom tier team in defensive efficiency as well (tied for 23rd). Like Charlotte, they are coming off a loss, 108-93 to Toronto. It was the third time in the last four games they failed to break 100 pts. But the shooting should improve from Weds night when they were below 40% from the field. The same could be said for Charlotte as well. I don't necessarily think that this O/U line is alarmingly low, rather I just think that we're "due" for this matchup to produce an Over. 8* Over Hawks/Hornets

10* Under T'wolves/Warriors (10:35 ET): This shapes up as a really good national TV game Thursday as the best team in the league hosts arguably the most improved team in the league (compared to last year). The former team in question is obviously the Warriors, who have won 10 of 12 to improve to 38-10 on the season, which is three games clear of the second best team out West, Houston. San Antonio is third, but right behind them is Minnesota, who is making good on all the hype they received coming into this season. But they did lose in Portland last night and this is obviously going to be a challenging spot for a young team that could potentially be w/o Jimmy Butler. But the pointspread is also too high for my liking. The total has me intrigued, however, and I'm going w/ the Under.

Tuesday Golden State improved to a perfect 10-0 SU this season when off a SU loss as they beat the Knicks 123-112 here in Oakland (as monster 16.5-pt chalk). Their average margin of victory in those 10 games is now +17.2 PPG. I made the mistake of going Under in that one as the Warriors had a big second half (65 pts) and shot 55.4% for the game. Still, it's not as if the two teams flew past the O/U line (which closed at 226.5). We've got a slightly higher O/U line here and probably for good reason as Minnesota is also in the top 10 in offensive efficiency (Warriors #1), but also not that great defensively. Still though, four of the Warriors' five games previous to the one vs. New York resulted in Unders.

Minnesota has gone Over in three straight as last night saw them surrender 123 pts to Portland. But as is the case w/ Golden State, recent Timberwolves' games have been higher scoring than normal. Their last five have averaged 225.8 PPG, up considerably from the YTD average of 214.7. With the Dubs, we're looking at an average of 233.6 points the last five games as opposed to 223.1 for the season. Though they have scored at least 114 pts in all three games w/o Butler thus far, I can't see that continuing for the T'wolves, especially against a Warriors team that remains top five in the league in defensive efficiency. 10* Under T'wolves/Warriors

8* Under Knicks/Warriors (10:35 ET): New York has gone Over in seven straight, so naturally a battle w/ Golden State would seem destined to be a high-scoring affair. However, this number is just too high in my estimation. The Warriors, despite being the best and most efficient offense in the game today, have gone Under in three straight - all games w/ higher totals than this. Tonight marks their return home after a five-game road trip, which ended w/ a loss in Houston Saturday night (I was on the Rockets!). They'd previously played four Eastern Conference teams and beat them all. Conversely, the Knicks are in the middle of their own seven-game trip and have alternated wins and losses through the first four. I don't see a win tonight nor do I see an Over.

In terms of both points scored and allowed, the Knicks rank right near the middle of the pack. They just allowed 127 points (to the Lakers!) on Sunday, which isn't a good sign, but that was also their most pts allowed in any game this season. Not coincidentally then, we find this to be the highest O/U line for any Knicks game this season and by a pretty substantial margin. While it is true that they've allowed more than 120 pts three times in the last seven games, the previous two instances were overtime affairs, one of them going to two OTs. Both meetings w/ Golden State last year had lower O/U lines and the Under is 2-1 for NY this season if the number is 220 or higher.

Lost in all of the Warriors' success is the fact they are actually a very good defensive team. They are currently tied for 5th in efficiency at that end of the floor and the fact they allow 107.1 PPG is owed to the fact they play at a fast pace. But the number of points allowed does dip down slightly to 105.4 here at home. Warriors' home games "only" average 219.1 PPG as opposed to 222.9 PPG overall. Note both numbers are below tonight's O/U line. Opponents are shooting below 44% against them for the season. The Under is also 6-2 for them this season when taking the court on exactly two days rest. In four all-time meetings, Knicks' leading scorer Kristaps Porzingis has averaged only 10.0 PPG against GSW (though this will be the 1st time he's not saddled w/ Carmelo Anthony). 8* Under Knicks/Warriors

10* Under Mavs/Blazers (10:05 ET): Right off the bat, this number looked a little high to me. That's probably owed to the fact Portland has gone Over in six of its last seven games. But the one that they didn't was last time out as they held Indiana to only 86 points in a convincing victory. That's a Pacers team that ranks in the top seven in offensive efficiency, mind you. Here they'll be facing a Dallas team that is far less scary on the offensive end of the floor. In fact, the Mavericks rank 24th in the league in points per game, an average largely owed to the fact the play at one of the slowest paces in the entire league. But the Mavs do also rank 10th in points allowed while Portland is 8th. Sounds like an Under to me! 

Dallas has going Under more than they have Over recently. They're 4-1 Under their L5 games. Last Saturday, I took the Under when they played the Lakers and even w/ OT, the game still stayed Under. After two days off, the Mavs then traveled to Denver and lost by a similar score (105-102), although this team there was no OT. Poor foul shooting, at least late in games, is somewhat to blame for the inability to win close. However, the bottom line is that this simply isn't a very high scoring team. The loss to Denver was also misleading in the sense that the Mavs entered the 4th quarter down 17 and took advantage of some lackadaisical Nuggets defense. Dallas scored 33 pts in the 4th quarter after scoring just 42 total in the 2nd & 3rd combined. 

Portland is only 20th in the league in points per game, so like Dallas, they've been a better team this year at the defensive end. It was crazy that they lost six in a row here at home at one point, but they've since responded w/ five straight wins. Thursday vs. Indiana, both teams shot below 40 percent from the field. Very different from the Mavs' last game, the Blazers used defense to pull away in the 4Q, holding the Pacers to just 12 pts. After the recent rash of Overs, we're due to see more Unders start coming in for the Blazers, who are already 20-6 Under in games that they are favored in this season. They are also 5-1 Under this season after holding their previous opponent to 90 pts or less. The Under is 15-7 in all Blazers' home games. 10* Under Mavs/Blazers

10* Under Magic/Cavs (7:05 ET): Cleveland appears to be in some real trouble right now. Not only does their defense rank 29th in efficiency, but they've also now dropped four in a row, the most recent setback coming on MLK Day to rival Golden State (here at home). There's also no sugarcoating what a disaster the three-time reigning Eastern Conference Champs have been at the betting window. There, they're currently a league-worst 12-30-1 ATS including a horrific 6-26 ATS when favored! Therefore, laying the points here is out of the question, even though I do expect them to get back into the win column. The Cavs last win (back on Jan 6th) came against Orlando, but if there's going to be a difference between this game and that one it's that I anticipate far less scoring. Take the Under. 

Last time these teams hooked up, it was a 131-127 final. Cleveland was "humming along," until that 4th quarter that is, when they gave up 40 points to make what was a 20-point game all too close. The defensive issues persist, but no way do I see them giving up 127 pts again to this Magic team, who is still bottom seven in the legaue in offensive efficiency. That game saw both teams shoot exactly 50.0% from the field (rare!) and combine for 29 made three-pointers. It is highly unlikely that those numbers will be duplicated here. For what it's worth, Cleveland failed to even break 100 in its three games immediately following the win over the Magic. Their last two games, vs. Indiana and Golden State, have both stayed Under and both of those teams rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency (GSW obviously #1).

Orlando is probably in a letdown spot after a rare win as well. They stunned Minnesota two nights ago, winning outright as 8.5-pt home dogs, 108-102. It was just their second win since December 8th (yikes!) and only the fifth since November 10th (double yikes!). It was one of their better defensive efforts in some time, limiting the T'wolves to just 102 points on 43.9% shooting. The injury bug has bitten this team throughout the season and they'll come into this game likely w/o Arron Afflalo (suspension?) and Marreese Speights (personnel reasons). That's in addition to the already M.I.A. Nikola Vucevic, among others. This O/U line is simply too high. 10* Under Magic/Cavs

10* Under Jazz/Kings (10:05 ET): A matchup of two of the five "slowest" (in terms of # of possessions per game), one of them also being the lowest scoring team in the league, seems ideal for an Under play. Sacramento is dead last in the league in offensive efficiency and points per game. Utah is 28th in points per game (ahead of only Memphis and Sacramento). Neither team broke 100 pts in its last game, Utah losing to Indiana (at home) 109-94 and Sacramento losing to OKC 95-88. I simply don't see a lot of points being scored in this game either. Take the Under. 

One thing we can almost certainly count on in this game is better defense from the Jazz than what we saw from them vs. Indiana. They let the Pacers shoot 53.2% from the field, just the 4th time a Jazz opponent was better than 50% in the last month. Utah ranks 6th for the season in points per game allowed. Based on opponent adjustment alone, we can be confident in defensive improvement here. Sacramento shot below 40% in their last game and is the ONLY team in the league not to be averaging a full point per possession. HC Dave Joeger knows his team's "lot" and is consciously making the decision to "go young" while resting some of his veterans. Expect growing pains. Since December 8th, there have been only three times where the Kings have shot at least 50% from the field.

Utah is in the bottom six in points, rebounds and assists per game. They are just 4-15 SU overall the L19 games, a stretch which can be tied to the absence of Rudy Gobert. They have failed to score 100 pts in four of the last six games. The road has been quite unkind as they're only 4-18 SU this year. On average, their games are bottom five in the league in total points per game at just 202.5. (Only San Antonio, Memphis and Boston see fewer). The Jazz do not shoot the ball well as their FG% for the season is only 43.9% on the road. Sacramento, across the board, is the worst offensive team in the league. 10* Under Jazz/Kings

10* Over Warriors/Cavaliers (8:05 ET): Golden State is back to its high-scoring ways (7-1 Over L8 games) and that means big-time trouble for a Cleveland team that is absolutely atrocious defensively. The Cavs come into this game ranked 29th in defensive efficiency, ahead of only lowly Sacramento. So this looks to be a far greater mismatch than what we saw in LY's NBA Finals. Furthermore, the Cavs are reeling right now as they've suffered three consecutive losses, two of them (Minnesota, Toronto) by a combined 62 points and then they blew a 20+ pt lead Friday in Indiana. Perhaps the only silver lining here is that I expect them to shoot much better than they did X-Mas Day in Oakland. As a result, I'm on the Over here.

This is a battle of two top five teams in offensive efficiency. Golden State recently regained the top spot, overtaking Houston. They have averaged 117.2 points per over the L5 games and they're shooting better than 50% from the floor for the season. Steph Curry (returned Saturday) will play tonight, making them all the more dangerous. Saturday's 127-125 win over Toronto is a little misleading in that the Dubs led by as many as 27 (on the road!). They shot a blistering 58% from the floor, the third time in four games they shot 55% or better! Against an inept defensive team like Cleveland, they should be able to name their point total. This may seem like a really high O/U line (it is!), but the Warriors are 6-1 Over this year in games where the number is 230 pts or higher. 

Cleveland is the worst ATS team in the league and has shockingly failed to score 100 pts in three straight games. Prior to the loss to Indiana, they'd given up 127+ pts in three straight, which is quite obviously very terrible. While the defense will continue to struggle here, I do expect more from LeBron James and crew on the offensive end. The last time they faced Golden State (X-Mas Day), they shot just 31.8% overall, which made it a bit a miracle that they only lost by seven (no Curry for GSW though). The Cavs were actually 15 of 36 from three-point range in that game, but only 13 of 52 on two-point attempts! That latter figure will improve dramatically here. So too will GSW's three-point shooting from the last meeting where they went just 10 of 37 w/o Curry. 10* Over Warriors/Cavs

8* Under Lakers/Mavs (2:05 ET): Two teams at the bottom of the Western Conference meet Saturday afternoon and at least they can say they'll be done in time to watch the first NFL playoff game. The Lakers, in the midst of the circus known as Lavar Ball, have all of a sudden won three straight after previously losing nine in a row. All three wins came at home, however. Dallas, meanwhile, has turned things around somewhat after a dreadful start to the season. They're actually a respectable 10-11 SU their L21 games including 6-3 their L9. But, as a favorite, they're tough to like as they've gone just 4-8 SU and ATS in that role this season. But I don't like the Lakers in this spot either, given their poor history vs. the Mavs (lost 14 straight to them!). What I do like here though is the total, which seems too high, especially from the Dallas perspective. Take the Under. 

There was a time when the Lakers ranked pretty high in defensive efficiency. HC Luke Walton was quite critical of his team on that end of the floor during the nine-game losing streak. But they still rank a very respectable 12th in defensive efficiency for the year after holding B2B opponents (one San Antonio!) below 90 pts. Those two opponents - the Spurs and Kings - both rank in the bottom five in the league in pace. Fortunately here for the Lakers, the Mavs are not far above that, ranking 6th slowest. Most impressive though is holding four straight opponents below 44% shooting from the floor. Meanwhile, the Lakers themselves actually rank 1st in the league in pace (most possessions per game), but at the same time they're horribly inefficient as they rank 28th on offense. Like their L2 opponents, they didn't break 100 pts in the L2 games either. 

As for Dallas, I had the Under in their most recent home game, a 114-99 win over Orlando (cashed!). They followed that up by going to Charlotte the next night and winning outright (as 6.5-pt dogs), 115-111 (that game obviously went Over). So, despite both being considered "also-rans," each team is on a winning streak here. Note that the Mavs are 30-13 Under the L3 seasons when coming off a SU win as a dog. They have also - shockingly - scored 114+ in six of their previous seven games. Needless to say, I don't think they do that here. 8* Under Lakers/Mavs

8* Under Magic/Wizards (7:05 ET): Washington is reeling after B2B losses here at home (were favored in both games) to the Bucks and Jazz. However, that's nothing compared to the amount of losing the Magic are experiencing. Believe it or not, but Orlando was once 8-4 and being talked about as a potential playoff darkhorse. Since then, they have lost an unfathomable 26 out of 30 games. That includes a 130-103 loss to these Wizards back on December 23rd (were 12-pt dogs). The line is shorter here, but despite the earlier Wiz cover, I simply cannot back them in this spot given their poor 8-19 ATS record as chalk. I'm also not about to back the Magic right now. Thankfully, it's the total that merits a play.

While the pointspread has curiously declined here, the O/U line has increased fairly dramatically from that first meeting. I suppose that was to be expected seeing as the Wizards scored 130 pts and the game easily went Over. But this number is high - by both team's standards. Orlando has topped 103 pts only once in its previous six tries, three times failing to even crack triple digits. They are 25th in offensive efficiency for the year and playing at a fast pace really hasn't worked for them. Washington is nothing more than a middle of the road team offensively. Though they shot 52.6% from the floor against Utah Wednesday night, they missed 14 of their final 22 FG attempts, which explains how they lost that game despite the Jazz being (very) short-handed. 

In the last meeting between these two, both teams shot the ball pretty well, the Wizards (obviously) in particular. The Wiz finished at 54.7% from the floor including 16 of 30 from three-point range. Despite Orlando's continued ineptitude on the defensive end of the floor, I wouldn't expect Washington to match those numbers tonight. Nor are they likely to score 72 pts in the 1st half again (like they did in the 1st meeting). Though they are division rivals, these teams have met just twice in the past 12 months. The Wizards are 15-8 Under against teams w/ losing records while the Magic have gone 4-1 Under here in January. Overall, the Wizards are one of the top Under teams in the league (third), having gone 24-15-2 in all games. 8* Under Magic/Wizards

8* Under Heat/Pacers (7:05 ET): Miami took advantage of a short-handed Toronto team last night, ending the Raptors' 12-game home win streak. Not only did Toronto enter that game w/o Kyle Lowry (bruised tailbone), but they also lost both Serge Ibaka to a second half ejection. Now the Heat's James Johnson was also tossed in the scuffle w/ Ibaka, but I'd say that loss had less effect than what Toronto was dealing with. It was a very low-scoring game, 90-89, as Miami's Wayne Ellington made a layup in the final second for the win. Indiana, on the other hand, comes in rested after defeating Milwaukee Monday night by a score of 109-96. The L3 times these teams have met here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, the game has stayed Under. Make it four in a row after tonight! 

Prior to last night, the Heat had gone Over in four consecutive games, scoring and allowing 100+ pts every time. They've also now won five straight to climb up to fourth place in the Eastern Conference. Interestingly, on a total points per game basis, this is the lowest scoring team in the East at 202.5 PPG. They average 100.6 (fewest of any team in the East!), but allow only 101.9 (tied for 2nd best). Not surprising then is they're 22-15-1 Under in all games this season. This total, while not high by modern NBA standards, is high for the Heat and you should note that they are 10-3 Under this year when facing a team that averages at least 106 points per game (31-14 Under L45 in that role). 

Pacers' games are higher scoring than Heat games w/ the former's offensive vs. defensive splits being more dramatic. However, Indiana has also held B2B opponents below 100 pts, including Milwaukee to just 96 Monday night. They were even more stout in an ideal spot Saturday, holding Chicago to 86 pts on 37.5% shooting. The Under is 14-7-1 in all Pacers' home games this season and the team is also 11-4 Under when favored, regardless of venue. Myles Turner is likely to miss this game and I can't see Sabonis continuing to average 21 PPG like he has over the last three games. Miami has not fared well here in Indianapolis the last several seasons, losing 10 straight visits here! They are still w/o Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow, by the way. These teams have met twice previously this season w/ both games in Miami and both going Over. But Indiana won't be shooting anywhere close to 60% from the field here like they did in the last meeting. 8* Under Heat/Pacers

10* Under Magic/Mavs (8:35 ET): We just turned the calendar to 2018, but suffice to say neither of these teams will be sniffing the playoffs come April. Orlando actually came into this season w/ playoff aspirations, but after a decent start (8-4 SU through 12 games), the bottom has dropped out here as the team is an absolutely horrific 4-24 its last 28 games. They have just one win since December 6th and I don't know how much longer HC Frank Vogel can keep his job if things keep going this way. Meanwhile, Dallas started its season poorly, but has been far more competitive of late. Though 0-3 SU in the New Year, they'd gone a respectable 8-8 SU their 16 games prior. That said, I don't want to back the Mavs as favorites here. What I will do, however, is call for an Under as Dallas plays at a slow pace and Orlando is quite inefficient.

While they average 105.1 PPG, the Magic are just 27th in the league in offensive efficiency. In what will likely prove to be a low possession game, that means trouble for them. Last time out, the Magic scored 127 points, but it was still not enough against Cleveland (though they did cover as 9-pt home dogs). Dallas is obviously a much different opponent than Cleveland. Something else to consider is that Orlando is 8-1 Under following a game where they allowed 130+ pts (that trend goes back several seasons). Both they and the Cavs shot exactly 50% from the floor on Saturday, something I dare say WON'T be repeated by either team here. Cleveland is a top three efficiency team on offense, but 29th on defense. Dallas is worse offensively (16th), but also better defensively (22nd).

This is actually the third consecutive game where the Mavs are favored. They lost the previous two, to Chicago and New York, outright. They shot only 38% from the floor in Sunday's 100-96 loss to the Knicks. While they could very well improve upon that number tonight, note that the Mavs rank just 23rd in the league in scoring overall (102.0 PPG) and their home games average just 205.8 points per game - total. I expect an ugly game here. 10* Under Magic/Mavs