8* Under Sixers/Pistons (7:05 ET): These teams just played on Saturday and it was Philadelphia picking up a 114-110 win here in the Motor City. They did not cover the spread (were -8.5), yet will certainly take the SU win as it improved their overall record to 12-5 (#1 in the East). The Sixers have won three straight as well as five of the last six. At the opposite end of the spectrum, you’ve got the Pistons, who are a league-worst 3-13 SU. That’s not a shock (were projected to finish last in the East prior to the start of the year) and they’ve now lost their last four games.

Things were a bit higher-scoring than expected on Saturday as the teams combined to take 68 free throws and the Pistons made 14 three-pointers. Both numbers are certainly atypical. On average, these teams combine to average just 49 FT’s per game. The Pistons do actually average 13 three-point makes per game, but it was the percentage (42.8%) that was high on Saturday. Detroit comes into tonight shooting just 40.2% from the field (on all attempts) at home.

Philly has a top three defensive efficiency rating in the league, so they shouldn’t have much difficulty slowing down a Pistons team that is averaging only 105.6 PPG at home. Detroit was widely expected to be one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season and that’s “bearing fruit.” They have an effective field goal percentage below 50% on the year, one of only three teams that can say that. Meanwhile, the Sixers average only 105.7 PPG on the road, so this shapes up to be a low-scoring game. Joel Embiid, who had 33 points Saturday, is listed as questionable to play. 8* Under Sixers/Pistons

10* Under Warriors/Jazz (9:05 ET): Right now, Utah clearly looks like the best Western Conference team outside the city of Los Angeles. They’ve won seven in a row and furthermore covered the number in all seven wins. Five of those games have seen them shoot 50% or better from the field and that’s in addition to posting a top five defensive efficiency rating for the season. Prior to a 129-118 win against New Orleans Thursday night, they’d held five consecutive opponents to 105 points or less. 

Golden State has obviously improved after last year’s injury-riddled disaster, but they may never again ascend to the championship heights of the five seasons before that. A 119-104 loss to the Knicks on Thursday leaves the Warriors at 8-7 SU and in ninth place in the West. That was a disappointing loss Thursday considering the Dubs were off a very impressive effort the night prior when they defeated San Antonio 121-99 as a 1-point home favorite. That was my 10* Game of the Week! 

The Dubs simply aren’t the same explosive offensive team we became accustomed to seeing under Steve Kerr. They are in the bottom third of offensive efficiency and shooting just 42.7% on the road this season. They connected at only 38.4% vs. the Knicks and that was at home. I mentioned Utah’s recent hot shooting at the top, but the good news for Golden State is that they haven’t let any opponent shoot 50% from the field since December 27th. The Under is 10-4 this season in Warriors’ games and 2-0 in Jazz’ games when the total is 220.0 or higher. 10* Under Warriors/Jazz

10* Under Pelicans/Kings (9:05 ET): Sacramento’s defense has been so bad that it almost has “no choice” but to improve. The Kings are dead last in the league in a variety of defensive categories and as a result are just 5-8 SU on the year. They have allowed 122 or more points in seven straight games and the last two they gave up 132 and 138. That makes tonight’s play on the Under quite the “contrarian” call, but I’ve got reason to believe the new defensive system that HC Luke Walton is implementing will start to take hold.

New Orleans is not a great offensive team. They are averaging just 105.9 PPG for the season, which is 28th (third worst) in the league. On Friday, they were held under 100 points for the fourth time this season despite shooting better than 60% in the 1st half. Now they were facing the Lakers, who are at the opposite end of the spectrum from the Kings in terms of defense. But still, scoring 37 points in a half is really bad (which is what the Pelicans did in the 2H vs. LA). They are 5-1 Under on the road so far this season. 

That game vs. the Lakers stayed Under the total as did the Pelicans’ first five games of the season. In between that, they went Over in five straight. But tonight will mark the highest O/U line for them since the third game of the season. Sacramento has been facing some very good offensive teams of late, which is why the Over is 6-1 their L7 games. But they’re not facing a good offensive team here. Also, the Kings have scored 100 or less in two of their last four games. New Orleans can hold them to a low number too as they rank in the upper half of the league in defensive efficiency. 10* Under Pelicans/Kings

10* Over Hawks/Jazz (9:05 ET): After having their previous game postponed, Atlanta finally takes the court again Friday night as they’ll travel to face Utah. Last we saw the Hawks was Monday when they snapped a four-game losing streak by defeating the Sixers 112-94. Early on, the Hawks were REALLY flying high as they got off to a 4-1 SU/ATS start to the season. But then they crashed back down with the aforementioned four-game slide - two of the losses vs. Charlotte - and all as favorites. They should be more comfortable in the underdog role tonight as they are 3-0 ATS this season when getting points.

Utah dominated Cleveland its last time out, winning by 30 (117-87) on the road. It was the second straight game where the Jazz held their opponent under 90 points and won. They beat Detroit 96-86 on Sunday. Such defensive efforts shouldn’t have been that surprising as the Pistons and Cavs are two of the worst offensive teams this league has to offer. Before the season, the Pistons were thought to be the worst offensive team in the league. It turns out that’s Cleveland, who is currently last in offensive efficiency by a mile.

So it should be a much tougher chore at the defensive end tonight for Utah. The Hawks have averaged 121.2 points in five road games so far. While that number is skewed by a 141-point game vs. Brooklyn, look for the Hawks to hang a pretty big number here. They’ve gone Under in six straight, but many of those O/U lines were much larger than this one. They are 15-3 Over vs. Northwest Division teams. Utah also had its last game cancelled, so both teams come in fresh and ready to run. This should turn into a bit of a shootout w/ the Over being 35-17 the L52 times Atlanta has been an underdog. 10* Over Hawks/Jazz

8* Under Mavs/Bucks (7:35 ET): These teams have “taken turns” leading the league in offensive efficiency the past two seasons (Bucks in 2018-19, Mavs in 2019-20) with the Bucks back on top so far this season. But I’m anticipating this Friday night ESPN matchup to be a bit more low-scoring than you might think. I just won with the Under on Milwaukee’s last game, a 110-101 win over the Pistons. They’ve now gone Under in three straight, allowing an average of just 96.7 PPG during that time. Dallas is tied with the Lakers for #1 in defensive efficiency while the Bucks aren’t far behind at #4 in that department.

The Mavs come into tonight on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak, which has seen them defeat Houston, Denver, Orlando and Charlotte. In each of the last two games, they’ve held the opposition below 100 points and both those games stayed Under. The Under is 7-3 in all Mavs’ games this season, which have averaged “only” 213.8 PPG or well below the O/U for tonight’s matchup. On Wednesday, they held Charlotte to only 93 points on 38% shooting, including 10 of 38 from three-point range.

Milwaukee once again looks like the best team in the league as they have the best point differential and net efficiency rating. Winners of six of their last seven, the Bucks are right near the top of the Eastern Conference standings, a place we all thought they’d be. They get a break here in that Dallas is a bit short-handed right now. Having held their previous five opponents to 42.8% shooting, it’s not as if the Bucks really need much of a break. Dallas is 5-2 Under its last seven tries as an underdog and I happen to think this O/U has been set too high. 8* Under Mavs/Bucks

8* Under Bucks/Pistons (7:05 ET): These teams just met twice last week (both games in Milwaukee) and as you might have guessed, the Bucks won both times. The scores were remarkably similar, 125-115 and 130-115, and that had the Over also going 2 for 2. Now they face off in the Motor City where the Pistons will hope for a better result. It’s highly unlikely that the underdog can prevail here, but their best chance is to keep things a lot more low-scoring. I do think that’s going to happen, for a variety of reasons.

Since sweeping the Pistons last week, the Bucks have gone on to win two of their last three games. After losing to Utah (gave up 131 points!), they’ve bounced back to defeat both Cleveland (allowed just 90 points) and Orlando (allowed just 99 points). The Under hit in both wins and again, that’s what I see happening in this one as they are taking on another opponent that is apt to struggle at the offensive end. The Pistons are 26th in the league in offensive efficiency and prior to the season were projected to be LAST in that department.

Now keeping the Bucks’ offense (#1 in efficiency) is going to be the key to this play. The Bucks are averaging 121.9 PPG so far, but that’s going to be difficult to maintain. Tonight marks the first time they’ve had to play consecutive road games since the start of the New Year. Hopefully, that can have a small (negative) impact on their production. But the bottom line here is that in it’s last two games, Detroit has scored just 86 and 93 points in regulation. With injuries at the PG position, they shot just 33% vs. Utah on Sunday. The Under is 4-1 in the Pistons’ last five home games. 8* Under Bucks/Pistons

10* Under Pacers/Kings (10:05 ET): Indiana is off a home loss to Phoenix, 125-117, on Saturday night. It was just the third loss this season for the Pacers, who are in their usual position of “second tier” in the Eastern Conference. They do have one of the better point differentials in the East and also sport a better net efficiency rating than 7-1 Philadelphia. Coming off a loss, the Pacers have to be “licking their chops” as they start a five-game West Coast swing in Sacramento against a Kings team that’s lost five of six.

Sacramento’s most recent loss was an ugly one as they fell 125-99 at home to Portland. That makes it five ATS losses in a row and B2B 20+ point defeats at home. They also lost here to Toronto on Friday, giving up 144 points in the process. This is a very bad defensive team as it has allowed 124+ points in four straight games while dropping to dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. 

Despite that, I expect tonight’s game to stay Under the total. The Kings’ defensive numbers almost HAVE to improve and the Pacers will also be looking to improve on that end after giving up 125 to Phoenix. This will be the highest O/U to date for any Indiana game. They are 2-0 Under this season after allowing 115+ points last game. Meanwhile, the Under is 13-6 for the Kings following a double digit defeat at home. That trend held in the Portland game. This number simply opened way too high. 10* Under Pacers/Kings

10* Under Pistons/Bucks (8:05 ET): These teams just played on Monday. The Bucks won that game 125-115, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 43 points. The team shot a somewhat ridiculous 57% for the game as well. Though Milwaukee still boasts the most efficient offense in the league, it has not been the same dominant start we’ve seen the previous two seasons. They come in at just 4-3, though all three losses were on the road. It should be another win tonight, but it won’t be as high-scoring.

Not only did Milwaukee shoot 57% from the floor on Monday, but the teams combined to go 31 of 74 from 3-point range. That almost certainly will NOT be happening again. Detroit is a team I project to finish near the bottom of the league offensively. So far they’ve been a bit better than expected, though they are shooting just 43.4% overall. It’s the defensive issues that must be fixed if they are to remain competitive. Already the Pistons have allowed 120+ points four times, though one of the games went to double overtime. 

The O/U line for tonight did open a few points higher than the closing number from Monday, so right away there’s a bit of value to be had. The Pistons are 20-8 Under the L3 seasons, on the road, when the total is 220 or higher. Meanwhile, the Under is 11-5 for the Bucks when they are off a SU win. The Bucks have defended quite well at home so far, allowing an overall shooting percentage of 40.5% and a 3-pt % of 29.7. Some familiarity and obvious decreases in shooting percentage should lead to an easy Under here. 10* Under Pistons/Bucks

9* Over Kings/Warriors (10:05 ET): Steph Curry went off for a career-high 62 points last night in a 137-122 win against Portland. As a team, the Warriors shot 55% from the floor. Neither Curry nor the team will likely be able to match that kind of offensive production here tonight, but they shouldn’t have to for this matchup with the Kings to still go Over the total. Neither of these teams are very good defensively and with Sacramento likely to bounce back from a poor shooting effort in its last game, look for more points than expected in this one. 

Curry’s performance was much needed for a Warriors team that has not been all that impressive in the early going. Lost in the virtuoso shooting effort though was the fact last night marked the fifth time in six games that the Dubs allowed at least 122 points. The only opponent they’ve been able to hold under that number was Detroit, who projects to be the worst offensive team in the league this season. The Dubs are currently 26th in defensive efficiency and they are NOT going to fix this issue when playing for a third time in four nights. 

Sacramento is off its worst shooting game of the season so far as they made only 38.9% in a 102-94 loss to the Rockets on Saturday (just 9 of 28 from three-point range). That was their second straight loss in Houston following an impressive 3-1 start. They’ve gotten to 119 points in half their games. Look for the Kings to regain their shooting touch tonight against the defensively inept Warriors, but also be on the lookout for Curry, who has averaged a stellar 30.3 PPG in his career when coming off a 50+ point effort. 9* Over Kings/Warriors

10* Under Cavaliers/Hawks (7:35 ET): This will be the second time (this season) that I’m playing the Cavs Under the total. The first was Tuesday’s game against the Knicks. Believe it or not, Cleveland actually came into that game at 3-0. But I warned you about buying into them and sure enough they dropped that game 95-86 (as a 3.5-pt favorite), making for an easy Under (total closed at 216). The Cavs’ predictable downfall then continued on New Year’s Eve with a 119-99 loss at Indiana, their third game in a row to go Under.

Many believed that this young Hawks team could surprise in the Eastern Conference this season and so far they’ve proven to be worthy of the “hype.” Last night saw them prevail in Brooklyn, holding the Nets to just 96 points on 40.7% shooting, including 7 of 37 from three-point range. Atlanta is now 4-1 SU with the only loss coming in the first of the two games at Brooklyn and they actually blew a 4Q in that one. Making the record look even more impressive is the fact the Hawks have played only one home game thus far.

Hawks’ games have generally been high-scoring thus far, but defensively they have held three of the first five opponents below 41.5% shooting. Offensively, I don’t think they are going to be able to match last night’s blistering 16 of 39 three-point shooting. Cleveland has actually played surprisingly decent defense in the early going (well, not vs. Indiana), posting a top five efficiency rating on that end of the floor. However, in three of their last four games the Cavs have been held to 101 pts or less in regulation. Both of these teams are dealing with multiple injuries in the early part of the season. 10* Under Cavaliers/Hawks

10* Under Knicks/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): The Cavs are a shocking 3-0 with all three victories coming as underdogs. But when you consider they were dogs to the likes of Charlotte (at home!) and Detroit, that record isn’t as impressive as it looks. I will give them credit for the win Sunday as they buried Philadelphia 118-94. That was by far their best defensive effort of the season, at least in terms of points allowed, though they did hold the Pistons to an even lower shooting percentage (40.8) the night prior. The only reason that game ended up being so high scoring (128-119) is because it went to double overtime.

The relatively easy early-season schedule for the Cavs will continue Tuesday as they host the Knicks. Cleveland is favored, so there’s a real legit shot they start the season 4-0! But New York is coming off a shocking 20-point win over Milwaukee where it scored 130 points! The odds of NY scoring that many again here range from slim to none. They are 12-4 Under coming off a game where they scored 130+ points and 18-6 Under coming off a SU win as a dog. While they shot 54.1% against the Bucks, they were at just 38.6% the game before (vs. Philadelphia) and finished with only 89 points. They scored only 107 points in the opener, a loss to Indiana.

Both these teams may be coming off impressive victories, but I still anticipate they’ll each finish near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings this year. As for who wins tonight, that’s anyone’s guess, but I like the game to finish Under the total. We’ve got the Knicks’ trends listed above, plus it’s a virtual lock that the Cavs’ offensive production from the first three games (122.3 PPG!) takes a downturn. The Under is 17-5 in the Cavs’ last 22 games following a double digit win. 10* Under Knicks/Cavaliers

10* Over Clippers/Nuggets (10:35 ET): Think revenge might be on the Clippers’ mind here? Back in September, they were shockingly eliminated from the Western Conference semifinals - in 7 games - by the Nuggets. That series saw the Clips blow a 3-1 series advantage. It was one of the more improbable playoff runs as Denver had also come back from a 3-1 series deficit to oust Utah in the first round. I have the Nuggets regressing (in terms of wins & losses) this season, so I was not shocked that they dropped their opening game.

I certainly considered the Clippers in this spot, given the revenge angle. But I don’t like the idea of laying points, no matter how few, in Denver. The Clippers are also coming off an emotional win over the Lakers in the opener. I took the Over in that game, which panned out, as the 116-109 final snuck Over the closing number of 219.5. It was a really strong effort from the Clips, who raced out to a 39-19 lead after the 1st quarter. As much as they’d like to “stick it” to Denver here, not sure they can replicate that first game performance - on both ends.

No game in that 7-game Western Conference semifinal series went Over. There were five Unders and two pushes. But not only did the Clippers’ 1st game go Over, so did the Nuggets’. Overtime obviously helped with the Denver game (was a 124-122 final), but it was also 112-112 at the end of regulation with Sacramento. Expect the Nuggets to shoot better from three-point range than they did vs. the Kings when they connected on only 8 of 27 attempts. Both of these teams can score in bunches and WILL on Christmas night. 10* Over Clippers/Nuggets

10* Over Clippers/Lakers (10:05 ET): Doesn’t it feel like the NBA season just ended two months ago? Well, that’s because it DID just end two months ago, with the Lakers taking care of the Heat in the Finals. It will be VERY interesting to see how some of these teams handle the unprecedented short turnaround between seasons. The NBA Champs get the least time off as they open the season Tuesday night against a Clippers team still smarting from a shocking defeat at the hands of Denver in the Conference semis. 

The Lakers arguably got BETTER in the offseason, which sounds scary. Of course, you’ve still got LeBron James and Anthony Davis leading the way. But the big key now is the supporting cast is a whole lot better. You’ve got the likes of Marc Gasol, Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell and Talen Horton-Tucker backing up the two superstars now. Speaking of superstars, the Clippers return their pair - Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. They lost Harrell to the Lakers, but replaced him with Serge Ibaka. The biggest change for the Clips is that Ty Lue replaced Doc Rivers as HC. They will again be a top 2-3 team in the West.

The two LA teams met four times last season and - surprisingly - all four games stayed Under the total. I’m predicting a different outcome this time as the Lakers seem poised to be a lot more dynamic this year when James and Davis exit the court. I hardly expect “lockdown defense” in the first game of the season. The Clippers averaged 116 PPG LY while the Lakers weren’t far behind at 113.3. Strangely, neither side hit their season average in any of the four meetings LY. Things will be different this time. 10* Over Clippers/Lakers

10* Under Lakers/Heat (9:05 ET): Despite all the injuries, Miamii isn’t going to roll over in this series. They took Game 3 outright, as a 9.5-point dog, by a score of 115-104. They were led by Jimmy Butler’s triple double, which included 40 points. Such an effort places Butler in some pretty rarefied air as it was only the third 40+ point triple double in Finals history. Bam Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable for Game 4 (so he could play) while Goran Dragic is still doubtful. The Lakers are 3-0 SU off a loss in the playoffs, winning all of those games by at least six points. 

If you go back to my Game 1 analysis, there was a discussion of O/U results from the Conference Finals. For those that missed that, Overs ruled the day in the two series, going a combined 9-1-1. But so far, the Under is 2-1 in this series, including my correct call for Game 1. Granted, both Unders hit by the “skin of their teeth.” Game 1 stayed Under by three while Game 3 stayed Under by half a point. But a win is a win and I like the Under to hit again in Game 4. 

Miami has trailed by double digits in six of their last eight games. So I’m still a little skeptical of their chances of tying this series back up. But it’s a lot of points they’re getting. What I’m counting on is them NOT shooting better than 50% again as they have the L2 games. If you recall, their shooting declined throughout the Eastern Conference Finals. Look for the Lakers to “tighten the screws” defensively in this one as Butler won’t be going off again like he did in the last game. The Heat will get the job done defensively as well. 10* Under Lakers/Heat

8* Under Heat/Lakers (9:05 ET): With injuries mounting, the only chance for the Heat in Game 2 is to crank up the defense. Fortunately, they are more than capable of doing just that. After getting blitzed by a red hot Lakers’ shooting spree in the 1H of Game 1, Miami did settle down on the defensive end after halftime. It was “too little, too late” though after the Lakers made 56% of their FG attempts in that first half. The game still stayed Under though and with the Lakers’ shooting projected to decline, Game 2 should as well.

In my analysis for Game 1, I pointed out the fact that the Over was a combined 9-1-1 in the two Conference Finals series. The one Under (in LAL-DEN Game 2) cashed by a single point. That clearly had an effect on the Game 1 total for this series, which I said was “too high.” Well, it opened right at the same number for Game 2. We’ve already seen it “trickle down” some (sign of sharp money?), but it’s still too high for all the reasons stated prior to Game 1. These are two solid defensive teams!

The Lakers ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency during the regular season. I said Miami wouldn’t come close to matching it’s 56.5% shooting from Game 6 vs. Boston and they didn’t even come close (42.7%). You’ll recall that the Heat’s shooting started to decline throughout the Eastern Conference Finals, prior to the close out game. Now they are dealing with numerous key injuries. The Lakers aren’t going to shoot as well in Game 2 as they did in Game 1 and in fact the Under is now 16-7 in the Lakers’ L23 games off a SU win. 8* Under Heat/Lakers

10* Under Heat/Lakers (9:05 ET): LeBron James has advanced to his 10th NBA Finals and will face one of the two franchises he previously led to a championship! Miami making it this far has definitely raised some eyebrows, but they have enjoyed an incredible postseason where they’ve only been beaten twice in regulation (both times by Boston). They’ve yet to trail in any series and are 12-3 SU/ATS in all playoff games. However, it should be pointed out they trailed by double digits in 4 of the 6 games vs. the Celtics.

The Lakers are also 12-3 SU in the playoffs, but just 8-5 ATS. Interestingly, two of their three losses have come in Game 1’s. They opened the Portland and Houston series with a loss and both times were held below 100 points. It was a different story vs. Denver in the Western Conference Finals, but the Lakers had a big edge in rest for that Game 1 and the Nuggets, quite frankly, aren’t very good defensively. That the Lakers have started slow in two of the three series is notable to me. In terms of efficiency, Miami is the strongest defensive foe LA will have faced so far in the playoffs. Watch for that “trademark” Heat zone. 

Of course, the Lakers can be quite stingy too. They ranked 3rd in the regular season in defensive efficiency. Needless to say, Miami isn’t shooting 56.5% from the field again like they did vs. Boston in Gm 6. These teams met just once in the regular season. The Lakers won 113-110 with the game easily going Over the 211.5-pt total. You’ll note this O/U line is several points higher. That may have to do with the fact the Over was nearly perfect in the two Conf Finals series (9-1-1). The time off that both teams have had, plus the Lakers propensity for some Game 1 “clunkers” has me on the Under here. This number is higher than every game in either Conf Finals.  10* Under Heat/Lakers

8* Under Nuggets/Clippers (9:05 ET): The Under has cashed in eight consecutive NBA Game 7’s, including the recently completed Celtics-Raptors series. I think that game is a good “comp” for handicapping this Nuggets-Clippers Game 7 as it featured an O/U line that was significantly lower than the previous six games, five of which had already stayed Under. The Under is 4-0-2 in this series and while the previous low O/U line was 214.0 (last game), oddsmakers know what they’re doing with the total and so do I. 

Let’s not forget what happened when Denver played a Game 7 in the last round. The final score there was 80-78 against Utah. They shot 37.3% in that winner-take-all game while holding the Jazz to 38.0%. Since starting 13-1 Over in the bubble, things have taken a dramatic turn for the Nuggets in this series as it pertains to the total. As I already mentioned above, we’ve yet to see any game go Over. While five of the six games have seen more than 209.5 total pts scored, Denver isn’t going to be shooting 54.1% again from the field as they did in Game 6.

Though I do like the Clippers to win and cover Game 7, Denver’s defense does need to be respected. After four disastrous efforts to start the Jazz series, the Nuggets have allowed just 1.08 pts per possession, which would have ranked 7th in the league during the regular season. They’ve held the Clippers to just under 42.0% shooting the L3 games. But where I feel the Nuggets will specifically “cool off” in Game 7 is from behind the arc. They’ve made 46% of their 3-pt attempts in the L2 games. For the year, they’re at just 36.4%. 8* Under Nuggets/Clippers

10* Under Heat/Celtics (6:35 ET): Miami and Boston may not have been the teams you expected in the Eastern Conference Finals, but here they both are, ready to meet with the winner going on to play for a NBA Title. Miami has been incredibly impressive in the postseason, first sweeping Indiana and then needing only five games to oust top-seed Milwaukee. The Heat are 8-1 SU/ATS in the playoffs with the lone loss coming in overtime. Boston is coming off a 7-game series with Toronto, but also swept its 1st round series (vs. Philadelphia). My own personal power ratings do favor the Celtics in this series, but only by the slightest amount.

Boston’s defense has been tremendous in the first two rounds as they have not allowed more than 106 points in regulation in any game. As a result, the Under is now 11-2 in their L13 games overall. All season long, this has been a strong defensive team. I was really impressed how they held Toronto under 100 pts in regulation for five of the seven games. Though the series did go the distance, the Celtics were pretty clearly the superior team as they posted two double digit victories while two of the three losses came either at the buzzer or in double OT. 

It was a similarly impressive defensive effort from the Heat in the last round against the Bucks, who came in as the highest scoring team in the league. Miami allowed just 106.0 PPG in the five games and remember one of those went to OT. They also held Boston to 43.5% shooting, including 10 of 33 from 3-pt range, in a 112-106 win back on August 4th. If there’s one concern for the Heat, it’s that they’ve been off for a whole week. So don’t be surprised if their own 3-pt shooting “cools off” here in Game 1. 10* Under Heat/Celtics

10* Over Rockets/Lakers (8:05 ET): After their superb shooting in both Games 2 and 3, the Lakers weren’t nearly as hot from the field in Game 4. But ironically, they were probably more dominant. They built a 23-point in the 4Q and while the Rockets were able to get within 5 late, it was still a wire to wire win where the 110-110 final doesn’t tell the full story. The Lakers shot 56.6% and 55.1% in Games 2 & 3, yet only won those games by 8 and 10 respectively. They shot 48.9% in Gm 4 (still a good number) and won by a similar margin. 

The Lakers’ three-point shooting wasn’t very good Thursday (9 of 30) nor did they get to the FT line many times (16 attempts). So they are definitely capable of scoring more than they did in Game 4. What’s scary for Houston is that the Lakers may not even need improved three-point shooting to close out this series tonight. LA crushed Houston down low in the last game, outscoring them 62-24 in the paint, including 17-3 on second-chance points. They also enjoyed a 19-2 edge on fast break points. 

I also expect the Rockets’ shooting will improve in this must-win scenario. The only real positive from Game 4 is that Russell Westbrook scored 25 points after some dreadful shooting earlier in the series. Sadly though, it was James Harden’s “turn” to have an “off-night” as he went 2 for 11 from the floor and was 1 for 6 from three-point range. (By the way, LeBron James missed all 5 of his three-point attempts, so he’s also going to improve here). We only need the slightest amount of improvement in scoring from both sides to send this Over. The O/U line is at a series low-point. 10* Over Rockets/Lakers

10* Over Celtics/Raptors (9:05 ET): All things considered, the Raptors should feel pretty fortunate to be in a Game 7 with the Celtics. Their three wins in the series have been by a total of 11 points, one of them coming on a buzzer-beater (Game 3) and another (Game 6) coming in double overtime. Boston’s three wins in the series have been by a total of 43 points with two of them (Gms 1 & 5) being complete blowouts. Also, don’t forget Boston beat Toronto by 22 in a seeding game back on August 7th. Boston is the ONLY team to have beaten Toronto in the bubble and three of the wins have been by 16 points or more!

But as Game 6 showed, it would be a mistake to count the reigning NBA champs out. While they’ve struggled offensively all series, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the Raptors “save their best for last” here. Game 3 is the only time in the seven games vs. Boston in the bubble that they’ve been able to shoot better than 44%. This is a team that averages 112.6 PPG for the season. You have to think they’ve got one good offensive game in them.

After six straight unders (including seeding game), these teams finally went Over in Game 6, though it took overtime to do so (game was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation). Both teams shot miserably on 2-pt attempts, going an identical 25 of 54. I expect that to improve on both sides here in Game 7. The Celtics are 12-5 Over off a SU loss. The O/U line for this game is currently 14 points lower than where it was for Game 1, which is an incredible shift during the course of a series. Two of the first five games would have gone Over this number. 10* Over Celtics/Raptors

10* Over Raptors/Celtics (6:40 ET): After five straight Overs to open this series (and seven straight Overs overall for Boston), it’s time for the Over to hit. Over the course of the series, we’ve seen the O/U line drop a total of eight points. That’s a fairly significant number, even though there has yet to be a game with more than 207 total points scored. Toronto shot horribly in Game 5 (2 for 15 to open the game) en route to being blown out. That won’t happen again though as the defending NBA Champs should rediscover the offense as they hope to stay alive.

The numbers were UGLY for the Raptors Monday night. They scored just 37 points in the first half, including an 11-point 1st quarter. Starters were outscored 94-45 for the game as the team shot only 38.8% from the field. It was the third time in the series being held below a 40.0 FG%. They are averaging only 97.2 PPG against Boston. Again though, this is a team that scored 150 in its close out game vs. Brooklyn in Rd 1. Boston isn’t Brooklyn, but the Raptors shooting will definitely improve in Game 6. 

Boston didn’t even shoot the ball that great in Game 5. Sure, they finished with an overall FG% of 49.4, but from three-point range they went just 11 of 34. Behind the arc is what has largely “made or broke” the Celtics in the series. In the two prior wins, they shot 41.5%. In the two losses, they were down closer to 25%.  You have to think we’re in line to get a game where both sides shoot the ball relatively well, especially from three. Toronto averages 112.5 PPG for the year while Boston is at 113.0. 10* Over Raptors/Celtics

8* Under Clippers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): My view is that after all those Overs we saw in Denver games here in the bubble, it was only a matter of time before the Under made its comeback. The Over hit in 13 of the Nuggets’ first 14 games post-restart, but since then it’s been three straight Unders, including both games of this series. The Clippers are a stout defensive team and coming off an embarrassing defeat in Game 2, they should be ready to “tighten the screws” again here for Game 3. Take the Under. 

Denver has not scored more than 110 points in any of its last three games. They were held below 100 twice. Game 7 against Utah (80-78 win) was a dramatic departure from the scoring we’d seen in most Nuggets games this postseason. Then they were held to just 97 points in Game 1 by the Clippers. While the Nuggets rose back up to 100 in the Gm 2 upset, that’s a little misleading considering they scored 44 in the 1Q and shot 15 of 40 from three-point range. Clearly, a similar fast start is probably NOT going to happen tonight.

The Clippers should bounce back a bit offensively from the poor Game 2 effort, but certainly aren’t going to get back to the heights of Game 1 where they made 57.1% of all FG attempts and were 10 of 24 from behind the three-point arc. Kawhi Leonard really struggled with the Denver defense in Game 2, scoring just 13 points on 4 of 17 shooting. It was just the third time in his L32 playoff games that Leonard was held under 20 points. The Under is 39-18 the L57 meetings between these teams. 8* Under Clippers/Nuggets

10* Over Celtics/Raptors (6:35 ET): While Toronto has fought back to even this series up at two games apiece, we’ve yet to see an Over (Under is 4-0). But that’s caused a somewhat significant drop in the oddsmakers’ O/U line for Game 5 Monday. While Game 4 may have been the lowest scoring game of the series to date (just 193 total pts), there were some real bad shooting numbers that we should see improve tonight. Look for the Celtics & Raptors to “finally” go Over here in Game 5. 

When it comes to winning and losing in this series, the key for Boston has been three-point shooting. In Games 1 & 2 (both of which they won), they shot 43.6% and 39.5% from behind the arc. In Games 3 & 4 (both of which they lost), they were 31.0% and 20.0%. While we may not see them again rise to the “highs” of the first two games, the Celtics’ long-range shooting should improve tonight compared to the last two games. The Under is 9-1 their L10 games, but for the season Celtics games are averaging 119.1 PPG. 

Toronto did not shoot well from three-point range in any of the first three games of the series. But they were up at 38.6% (a little above their season average) in the Game 4 victory. So far, the Raptors have had only one game where they shot above 40% overall and you have to figure that’s going to change soon. Even with the Under being 12-4 in all of their games inside the bubble, this is the lowest O/U for any Raptors’ game yet. Same for the Celtics, who are 12-4 Over following a SU loss. 10* Over Celtics/Raptors

10* Over Rockets/Lakers (8:35 ET): I had the Under in both Games 2 and 7 of the Rockets-Thunder series, winning both times, and the Under is now 5-2 in Houston’s L7 games including 4-0 the L4. Despite that success taking Unders, I believe that tonight’s Game 2 with the Lakers is the time to go with the Over. No way the Lakers shoot as poorly here as they did in Game 1. In fact, in two games vs. Houston inside the bubble, LA has made only 13 of its 57 three-point attempts. That number HAS to improve. 

It was a 63-55 game at the half Friday night. The halftime score was pretty similar (65-56 Houston) when the teams met back on August 6th. Yet, despite the relatively high-scoring 1st halves, neither game went Over the number. The Lakers were held to just 42 second-half points in Game 1 and really seemed to “throw the towel in” late as it was an 18-point fourth quarter. Note the O/U line for Game 2 is several points lower than it was for Game 1, creating some real value in going the other direction (i.e. Over). 

The Lakers also lost Game 1 in Round 1 vs. Portland. They would go on to win the next four games including two 130+ point efforts. Houston has been better defensively of late, but I’m still a bit skeptical of them on that end of the floor. But something else I’ve noticed is the Rockets haven’t scored more than 114 points in any of the last seven games. That seems likely to change as they are averaging 117.1 PPG for the season. 10* Over Rockets/Lakers

10* Over Raptors/Celtics (6:30 ET): Toronto was less than a second away from being down 0-3 in this best of seven series, but OG Anunoby’s GW three changed all that as the Raptors took Game 3 by a score of 104-103. Still, it’s hard to shake the fact that the defending NBA Champs have had their share of trouble beating the Celtics this season. All three losses in the bubble have been at the hands of Boston and for the year, the head to head record is 2-5 SU, 1-5-1 ATS. So while we had the Raptors in Game 3 (pushed), you can understand why I’d be a bit “gun-shy” about coming back with them again here. 

Boston’s head to head success w/ Toronto isn’t the only notable trend when examining the season series. The last five meetings between the two teams have all stayed Under the total. None of the three games in this series have really been close with just 206, 201 and 207 total pts scored. But for Game 4, the O/U is the lowest it’s been all series and a far cry from the 222.5 pt number we saw when the teams met on August 7th.

Eight of the Celtics’ last nine games overall have gone Under the total. But I smell a change being in store for Saturday. Boston has shot 47.0% in two of the three games so far and was up above 40% from three-point range in the first two games. The Raptors finally had a decent shooting night in Game 3 (46.6%), but their ability to score was somewhat undone by taking only 16 free throws making just NINE. Toronto scored 150 in its close out game vs. Brooklyn last round, so they are more than capable of big offensive explosions. The Over is 12-3 the L15 times Boston has been off a SU loss. 10* Over Raptors/Celtics

10* Under Nuggets/Clippers (9:05 ET): The Nuggets have gone Over in 13 of 15 games here in the bubble while the Clippers are 9-3 Over their last 12, including a 150+ pt effort against Dallas in their first round series. Those who made the mistake of continuously thinking Denver was “due” for an Under (I’ve been guilty!) got a “mea culpa” of sorts in Game 7 of the Utah series Tuesday. That series deciding game was an 80-78 final and obviously stayed WAY Under. It may not be that easy tonight, but I look for Game 1 of this series to stay Under as well.

Jamal Murray’s history-making scoring stretch (142 pts in three games) came to a bit of a screeching halt in that Game 7 Tuesday. Murray scored just 17 points in that game, shot 33% overall from the floor and missed five of six 3-pt attempts. Concerning is the fact he took a knee to the thigh and appeared to be hampered afterwards. Another issue facing Murray is that Patrick Beverley seems likely to return for the Clippers tonight. Beverley, who is one of the best individual defenders in the league, missed the entirety of the Dallas series. HC Doc Rivers has all but guaranteed he will play tonight. 

Denver is a good offensive team as they rank 8th in efficiency. However, the Clippers just got done facing the #1 team in offensive efficiency and largely kept them in check. When these teams met last month, it was 124-111 Clippers. But they shot 54% from the floor, something that I don’t see happening here. This was among the highest opening O/U lines for any Denver game in the bubble. Remember they were held under 90 pts twice by Utah. At the same time, they’ve given up no more than 107 any of the L3 games. 10* Under Nuggets/Clippers

10* Under Thunder/Rockets (9:05 ET): When the Rockets were up 2-0 in this series, a possible Game 7 was probably the LAST thing on their minds. The return of a healthy Russell Westbrook seemed to put the nail even further in the Thunder’s coffin, but here we are Wednesday with a Game 7. I took OKC plus the points in Game 6 and they delivered the outright win, 104-100, a tremendous bounce back from what happened in Game 5 (when I was on the Rockets).

Houston probably has a legit claim to being the better team here. All three of their wins in the series have been by double digits (combined 62 points). Oklahoma City’s three wins have been by a total of 19 points with two coming by 4 or less and the other in overtime. But, even off a loss, I’m pivoting to the total for this Game 7 matchup. We know that Game 7’s tend to be low-scoring. Well, the last two games of this series have both gone Under. This one should as well. 

The most points scored by the Thunder in regulation in any game this series was 117 in Game 4. Other than that, they have not topped 108 in regulation. Four of the six games have seen them held to 104 pts or less in regulation. I had the Under in Game 2, which was a win. The L2 games have seen OKC shoot 31.5% and 42.7% from the field. Neither team has shot better than 48.8% in any game this series. Houston has gone Under six straight times when tied in a playoff series. 10* Under Thunder/Rockets

10* Under Jazz/Nuggets (6:35 ET): By now, everyone is well aware that the Nuggets have been an Over machine here in the bubble. All but one of their games in Orlando (that being Game 3 of this series) have gone Over and many of them have gone way Over. Take Sunday for example, when they lost Game 4 by a score of 129-127. That put them down 3-1 in this series and now they are facing elimination Tuesday. With the season hanging in the balance, I do expect this to be a much better defensive effort than usual. Take the Under in what is the highest O/U line of the series to date. 

Denver has not only lost three straight to Utah, but also six of its last seven. This decline doesn’t shock me as I thought the Nuggets were overrated as a 3-seed being that they had only the 7th best net efficiency rating in the regular season among Western Conference teams. They actually started out as a favorite in this series, but things changed dramatically when they lost Game 2 by a score of 124-105, an “upset” I called (for the Jazz). The Nuggets’ only win of this series was a come from behind effort in Game 1 that went to overtime. 

Each team had a 50+ point scorer in Game 4, Jamal Murray (50) for Denver and Donovan Mitchell (51) for Utah. That’s pretty remarkable. Even more remarkable is that it was Mitchell’s second 50+ point game of the series (had 57 in Game 1)! While all signs point to the Jazz advancing tonight, there’s no way they are going to shoot as well as they did Sunday night when they sank 14 of 29 three-pointers and 57.5% of their shots overall. The Nuggets scored only 87 points in Game 3. 10* Under Jazz/Nuggets

10* Under Thunder/Rockets (3:35 ET): Despite not having Russell Westrbook, Houston had no problems shutting down OKC in Game 1 of this series. It was a 123-108 win Tuesday, led by James Harden’s 37 points. The team shot 48% overall from the floor and made 20 three-pointers. They led by 21 going into the fourth quarter. It probably won’t be that easy in Game 2 as I see this being a lower-scoring affair. 

Oklahoma City was actually favored in Game 1, but that’s not the case here as they look to bounce back and even the series up. The Thunder have been one of the lower scoring teams in the bubble thus far as they’ve topped 110 points in only three games. The only time they scored more than 116 was against Washington, the worst defensive team in the bubble. The Rockets are not noted as a defensive stalwart, but they clearly did a good job in Game 1. Danilo Gallinari probably won’t be matching his career-high 29 pt effort from Game 1 either.

Betting the Under has been profitable this season when the Rockets are playing away from home. Obviously, that’ll be the case the rest of the way. The Under is 6-2 their last eight games overall and a perfect 7-0 the L7 times they’ve taken the court on exactly one day’s rest. With no Westrbook, there’s a heavy offensive burden on Harden. The Thunder are 45-19-1 Under their L65 games as an underdog. Game 1 may have just snuck Over, but Game 2 won’t. 10* Under Thunder/Rockets

10* Under Clippers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): I’ll try this again, despite the fact that Nuggets’ red-hot shooting didn’t subside in the last game, it actually got even hotter. They shot 58.4% from the field Monday against the Lakers, including a somewhat insane 13 of 23 on three-point attempts, yet still lost the game 124-121! There is simply no way Denver will shoot that well again here, a game which figures to have a little more “playoff-like intensity.” 

It is very likely that the Clippers will end up as the 2-seed and the Nuggets the 3-seed in the Western Conference. However, if Denver wins here, things would get interesting as it would come down to the final game. (They need to win out and have the Clippers lose out to take the 2-seed). The Clippers, who have gone Over in four straight themselves, lost 129-120 to Brooklyn on Sunday despite 39 points from Kawhi Leonard, who sat out the team’s surprising win against Portland the day prior. Sunday was Paul George’s turn to sit out. Both are expected back here. Patrick Beverley’s status is unknown, but I’m expecting better defense from the Clips tonight. 

Denver is the only team in the bubble to have gone Over in every game. I look for the streak to end tonight as they should start to see a sharp decline in shooting. I’m not as high on the Nuggets as they only have the West’s 7th best efficiency rating. It was a similar story last year when they somehow finished second in the standings. This year’s team is weaker based on efficiency and scoring differential.  10* Under Clippers/Nuggets

10* Under Nuggets/Lakers (9:05 ET): The Lakers have first place all sewn up in the Western Conference. You can tell as they’ve lost three in row, the latest coming to Indiana (116-111) as they could not overcome T.J. Warren’s 39 points. LeBron James missed the game before that, a 113-97 loss to the Rockets. I’m not sure what to expect from LA these next two games now that they have nothing to play for.

Denver, meanwhile, is fighting for seeding. They are still 3rd after beating Utah 134-132 in double overtime Saturday. It is unlikely that they will move from that position, which is where they were entering the restart. All five Nuggets games thus far have gone Over the total, though I’ve got a bone to pick with that last one. As mentioned previously, the game went to DOUBLE overtime. But it should have been done in regulation. The Nuggets had some sloppy execution in the final 10 seconds, allowing Utah to tie it up. That cost me an Under.

Denver got Jamal Murray back for Saturday’s game, but Will Barton and Gary Harris remain out. After the bad beat w/ the Under vs. Utah, I’m doubling down here as the Lakers have shot poorly here in the bubble with four games at 42% or less from the field. At the same time, the Lakers just allowed their highest FG% so far in the bubble and should be better defensively tonight. They are third in the league in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets are just plain due for an Under. 10* Under Nuggets/Lakers

10* Under Wizards/Thunder (12:35 ET): The Wizards probably didn’t even need to bother showing up in the bubble here in Orlando. They faced an uphill climb to even force a play-in game and a depleted roster made those chances even slimmer. Sure enough, the remote hope of making the playoffs has already been dashed as the Wiz are 0-5 SU and eliminated from contention. They have nothing left to play for except pride at this point and I don’t expect pride to have much of an effect these next three games. 

Oklahoma City is battling for seeding in the Western Conference. They are currently tied with Utah for 5th. Obviously, with home court advantage no longer a factor, it doesn’t matter as much where the Thunder finish. But they’d still like the best possible matchup. They’re also looking to bounce back from a humiliating defeat on Friday where they lost 121-92 to Memphis. Proud to say I was on the Grizzlies in that one, which marked the second time in three games where OKC lost outright as a favorite.

These teams have combined to go 6-3 Under since the restart with the Wizards having gone Under in three straight. Of who’s left on the roster, Rui Hachimura is Washington’s leading scorer at just 13.4 PPG. The team is averaging just 105.4 PPG on 44% shooting here in Orlando. Oklahoma City is missing Dennis Schroeder right now and that has left an undue burden on Shai Gilegous-Alexander, whose shooting has suffered with more playing time (32.4% L3 games). Like Washington, the Thunder have yet to score more than 113 pts here in the bubble. They are actually shooting WORSE than the Wizards here. Under is 19-5 this season in OKC games w/ a total of 220+ pts. 10* Under Wizards/Thunder

10* Over Lakers/Jazz (9:05 ET): We’ve seen some high-scoring games so far in Orlando, but both the Lakers and Jazz are 2-0 to the Under. After squeaking out a 103-101 win over the Clippers, the Lakers were held to just 92 points in a 15-point loss to the Raptors. Utah’s first two games followed a similar script. First they came from behind to defeat New Orleans 106-104 (a game we had the Under), then they were held to 94 pts in a DD loss to OKC on Saturday. I expect both teams to bounce back offensively tonight. 

The Lakers haven’t shot well as they’ve been held below 40% from the field in both games. They were at 48.1% in the regular season, so it’s quite realistic to expect an improvement in this area moving forward. Toronto, who is excellent defensively, held the Lakers to just 35.4% and 10 of 40 from 3-pt range. LeBron James & Anthony Davis combined for only 34 pts. Obviously all of these numbers should go up tonight. 

Utah was almost as miserable vs. OKC, getting held below 40% shooting for the game. A 15-point 1Q really did them in and they never really recovered. It was the second straight game that the Jazz fell behind by double digits in the first half. They clearly miss second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic and his 20.2 PPG, but leading scorer Donovan Mitchell had just 13 pts vs. the Thunder and that number will improve tonight. This is a low total that I expect to go Over. 10* Over Lakers/Jazz

10* Under Spurs/Grizzlies (4:05 ET): This is a pretty important game in the race for the 8th spot in the Western Conference playoffs. Memphis currently holds it, but that lead is now down to 2.5 games after they lost (in overtime) to Portland on Monday. San Antonio won their first game of the restart, 129-120 against Sacramento. That leaves them three back of the Grizzlies. A win here would obviously be huge for the Spurs, but I’m not really confident they can match their shooting from Friday. 

The Spurs shot 53.3% from the field vs. Sacramento in a game they were outscored over the final three quarters.They also assisted on 32 of their 48 made baskets. The keys were DeMar DeRozan scoring 17 of his 27 in the 4Q as well as Derrick White matching a career-high w/ 26 points. The team also shot 44% from 3pt range and 22 of 27 from the FT line, Again, I don’t see those kinds of numbers being duplicated here. 

Memphis may have scored 135 pts in a losing effort Friday, but they didn’t shoot all that well. They shot 45.2% overall and missed 28 of 41 three-point attempts. But they were able to get to the FT line FIFTY times, which certainly will not repeat itself anytime soon. Among teams still playing, the Grizzlies own the third worst offensive efficiency. They are 4-0 Under the L4 times they allowed 125+ pts the previous game. 10* Under Spurs/Grizzlies

10* Under Heat/Nuggets (1:05 ET): Back in March, the Heat’s goal was very simple - secure home court advantage for a first round playoff series. Miami was 27-5 SU at American Airlines Arena while just 14-19 SU on the road. So whomever the first round opponent ended up being - likely Philadelphia or Indiana - it would have been a big edge for the Heat to have the homecourt edge. Same for Denver out West as they were 25-8 SU at home compared to just 18-14 SU on the road. Now that we’re in a “bubble” and home court advantage no longer applies, where these two teams finish in their respective conference means less. 

Still - both want the best possible first round matchups. Denver is currently 3rd in the West, but could still finish as low as 7th if things broke poorly. This is a deep team with six players averaging double figures. Leading scorer Nikola Jokic was diagnosed with COVID-19 while at home in Serbia, but is expected to be fine for the start of the season. Depth will be bolstered by the fact 7’2” Bol Bol seems ready to go. Something that may surprise you about these Nuggets is they were tied for 5th in points allowed. 

I don’t really trust either side, especially Miami, to consistently shoot the ball well away from home. When the Heat traveled to Denver back in November, they shot 36.9% and lost by 20 points (109-89). It’ll be closer here as you shouldn’t underestimate the Heat’s defense either. They own an identical defensive efficiency rating to Denver. Both teams were in a slump, shooting-wise, before things got shut down. Like I said in the analysis of the Utah-NO game, I expect scoring to go down league-wide in Orlando. 10* Under Heat/Nuggets 

10* Under Jazz/Pelicans (6:35 ET): Utah was 4th (41-23 SU) in the Western Conference at the time of the stoppage. They’d won five of six games. Of course, it was one of their own (Rudy Gobert) largely responsible for the stoppage in the 1st place, not that things wouldn’t have been shut down anyway. Over the next eight games, the Jazz will simply be playing for seeding as they could finish as high as 2nd or as low as 7th, with somewhere “in between” the more likely result.

New Orleans is a team that has far more at stake over the next eight games as they’re simply trying to get into the playoffs. As long as they finish 9th and within 4 games of 8th, they’ve got a shot at a “play-in” scenario. Of course, all eyes are on Zion Williamson, who was away from the team for 12 days due to a family emergency and four-day quarantine. Williamson returned to the bubble and practiced both Tuesday & Wednesday, however, he’s currently listed as a “game-time decision” for the opener. 

Obviously, if Williamson were to miss this game it will have a substantial impact on the line. But even if he does play, don’t expect him to be up to his usual standard. For Utah, they’ll be without second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovich and his 20.2 PPG. All three previous regular season matchups between the Jazz & Pelicans went Over, but that doesn’t matter much now due to the unusual circumstances. Whether or not Williamson plays, Under is the call as I expect both sides to be rusty. 10* Under Jazz/Pelicans

10* Under Magic/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): As far as the O/U goes in this matchup, something is going to have to give. Orlando has gone Over in an incredible 11 straight games, a sharp departure from the way most of their season has gone. The Magic have spent the balance of the year near the bottom of the league in points per game scored while simultaneously ranking near the top in PPG allowed. Conversely, you have Memphis having gone Under in their L6 games after spending so much of their season putting up big point totals. 

Consider for a moment that Orlando still ranks 28th in the league in scoring (106.2 PPG), despite the 11 straight Overs, and they are also #4 in points allowed (107.2). They had been 30-22-1 Under this season before the current run of Overs began. It’s been dramatic increases on BOTH sides of the floor recently w/ them averaging 118.2 PPG and allowing 116.8 PPG. How can this be explained? Honestly, I’m not sure! But after averaging 120.8 PPG these L11 contests, they’re bound for a “cooling off” period. It’s not as if there’s been some radical transformation in personnel. 

Memphis has been playing great defense of late, giving up an average of just 95.4 points the L5 games. Only one time during that stretch have they allowed more than 101 pts and that was to Dallas, who boasts the most efficient offensive attack in the league this season. The Grizzlies have been massive overachievers this season, winning 34 times despite being favored in only 18 games. When favored (as they are tonight), the Under has gone 12-6. 10* Under Magic/Grizzlies

10* Over Lakers/Clippers (3:35 ET): The Lakers are going for their second marquee win in the last three days. Friday saw them defeat Milwaukee 113-103 (potential NBA Finals preview?) right here at the Staples Center. LeBron and company have been in “full control” of the Western Conference much of the season and have opened up a 5.5 game lead over their closest competition. That “closest competition” is who they’ll be facing Sunday, the Clippers, who are on an impressive six-game win streak right now. 

The average margin of victory during the Clippers’ six game win streak is 17.0 PPG. Only one of those six wins has been by single digits. The team is 10-0 SU this season when its full roster is intact and right now is as healthy as its been all year. They just beat Houston 120-105 on Thursday, making it look easy against the Rockets’ “small ball” lineup. The Clips are 2-0 against the Lakers this season including a win on X-Mas. 

So this is a game the Lakers must take seriously. Being that it’s on National TV, you know they will. The Clippers are averaging 118.1 PPG at Staples Center this season and have scored 120 or more four times during the current win streak. They are prone to defensive lapses however as last Sunday they gave up 130 points to Philadelphia. The Lakers can score too as they are averaging over 114 PPG. While the two previous meetings this year have stayed Under, this one is going Over. 10* Over Lakers/Clippers

10* Under Magic/T’Wolves (8:05 ET): Just six days ago these teams met in Orlando and the Magic won 136-125. They haven’t won since. It’s a three-game losing streak heading into this rematch in the Twin Cities. I played against the Magic on Monday when they lost outright at home to Portland 130-107 as a seven-point favorite. That was my 10* Game of the Week. Now the Magic will be involved in this week’s top total. I can’t imagine this game will be anywhere close to as high scoring as that first meeting. 

The Over is 9-0 in Orlando’s previous nine games. That’s quite the streak for a team that has spent the balance of the season near the bottom of the league in scoring while also ranking at the top in points allowed. They still are only averaging 105.4 PPG while giving up only 107.1. They are way over those averages during this 9-game Over streak and oddsmakers have been slow to keep up. But tonight’s game figures to be the highest O/U line for any Magic game this season. 

Minnesota comes into tonight off B2B wins including a huge upset of New Orleans on Tuesday that I was on. The T’wolves shot 55.7% from the floor in that game and then 50% in Wednesday’s win here at home vs. Chicago. I don’t see them matching those numbers tonight nor do I see Orlando shooting as well as they did last Saturday against the T’wolves (54%). 10* Under Magic/T’wolves

10* Over Hornets/Raptors (7:35 ET): Charlotte picked up a rare win Wednesday by beating the Knicks 107-101. Despite that, and the fact they pulled off three additional upsets surrounding the All-Star Break, things remain rather dire for the Hornets as they own the 4th worst point differential in the league and have dropped 21 of their last 28 games overall. This is a bad basketball team, a point we made abundantly clear last Saturday when we faded them at home vs. Kyrie Irving-less Brooklyn. The Hornets lost 115-86. 

Toronto, on the other hand, is playing great. The reigning NBA Champs did just get humbled here at home by Milwaukee (Eastern Conf Finals preview?), but before that they had won 17 of 18 games. Interestingly enough, the Raptors were held under 100 points in the only two games they have lost since mid-January. Clearly, we don’t see that happening here as Charlotte gives up 110 PPG and are a poor 25th in defensive efficiency. It’s a virtual lock that the Raptors will improve upon the 35.2% shooting we saw vs. the Bucks. 

The champs are averaging 116.5 PPG at home this season, so what happened Tuesday vs. Milwaukee should be considered a total anomaly. It was a game between the two top teams in defensive efficiency as well. This one should be a lot different. Charlotte may rank near the bottom of the league in PPG, but I see them scoring enough to help send this game Over the total. Seven of the last eight times these teams have met, the Over has cashed. It was a 112-110 Toronto win in Charlotte last month. 10* Over Hornets/Raptors

10* Over Hornets/Pacers (7:05 ET): Charlotte is a team that I have very little regard for right now. I’ve been pretty steadfast in this mindset, which is why I went “all in” against them Saturday with a ~SIGNATURE~ *10* ULTIMATE POWER release on Brooklyn. The final score of that game was 115-86 (in the Nets’ favor) as Charlotte’s per game point differential for the season dropped to -7.4. That’s 4th worst in the league. 

There seems to be a very good chance Indiana will finish 6th in the Eastern Conference as they simply lack the kind of home court dominance we see from the the two teams (Miami, Philadelphia) that are ahead of them in the standings. But it was the road that was unkind to the Pacers Sunday as they were severely routed 127-81 by Toronto. That putrid effort saw them held to 32.6% shooting for the game. It was easily their worst margin of defeat this season.

Indiana hasn’t shot well in either of its games since the Break. Despite sustaining some injuries, you have to figure they’ll see their shooting improve upon returning home tonight. This is a team that normally shoots the ball pretty well (47.4%) and they average almost 110 PPG. As for Charlotte, they too shot poorly in their last game and I expect improvement there. This is a really low total by 2020 NBA standards. 10* Over Hornets/Pacers

10* Under Celtics/Lakers (3:30 ET): This long-standing rivalry is certainly relevant again with the Celtics in third place in the East and the Lakers leading the West. Boston lost just once in its L10 games and that was at Houston before the Break. Since the 2nd half of the season began, they’ve beaten the Clippers 141-133 and T’wolves 127-117. As you might guess from those two scores, both games easily went Over. 

The Lakers have won four in a row overall to solidify their lead atop the Western Conference standings. They’ve played only one game since the Break and it was a 117-105 win over Memphis (who was in the second night of a back to back) Friday night. During the win streak, LA has scored a minimum of 117 pts every time. They’ve also covered the spread in the last three games. 

While both sides have scored plenty recently, don’t go discounting their ability to play defense. The Lakers are giving up only 104.8 PPG at home, which is a really impressive number for 2020. Opponents shoot just 43.6% when they visit LA. Believe it or not, the Celtics allow a slightly lower FG% on the road. These are two of the top five teams in the league in defensive efficiency. A meeting last month in Beantown saw the Celtics score 139 points. That won’t be happening again here. 10* Under Celtics/Lakers

10* Under Suns/Raptors (7:35 ET): I happen to think Phoenix is a lot better than its record (22-33 SU) shows as they’ve only been outscored by 1.2 PPG and actually have a positive net efficiency rating. By those metrics the Suns are actually the 8th best team in the Western Conference, but they still face a healthy six game deficit to make the playoffs, which is something the franchise has not done since 2010 (2nd longest drought in league). Unfortunately for the Suns, having to head for Toronto is not exactly the most ideal way to start the 2nd half. 

The defending NBA Champion Raptors have really hit their stride over the last month or so, winning a franchise record 15 in a row from 1/15-2/10. That win streak was halted in the final game before the All-Star Break as they fell 101-91 in Brooklyn. The last time the Raptors lost a game “North of the Border” was January 12th - by a single point - to San Antonio. Look for the Raptors to finish either 2nd or 3rd in the East as they fight w/ Boston over who’s the best team besides Milwaukee. 

The “secret” to the Raptors’ success is the fact they rank #2 in the league in defensive efficiency, trailing only Milwaukee. They’ve been able to consistently win despite a myriad of injuries and right now three players, including starter Marc Gasol, are likely to miss tonight’s game. Phoenix is also dealing with several players on the injury front, though their respective statuses appear more promising. Yet this is just the third time all year the Suns have taken the court w/ at least three days rest. Both previous times, the game went Under. 10* Under Suns/Raptors

10* Under Rockets/Warriors (10:35 ET): What was a Western Conference Finals matchup last season will not be repeated in 2020 as Golden State has been decimated by injuries from the very start of this campaign, resulting in them having the worst record in the league going into the All-Star Break (12-43 SU). That would have been considered unthinkable back in October. Meanwhile, the Rockets are underperforming in their own right as they went into the Break 5th in the West.

Houston has the clear advantage tonight, but what I’m focusing on is the high total for this game. With their reputation for high-scoring games, the Rockets have seen exactly two-thirds of their games this season have an O/U line of 230 points or higher. The Under is 25-11 in those games, including 15-5 on the road. That’s the situation tonight and they’re up against a team that is averaging only 106.3 PPG.

Golden State has just three wins since 12.27. During that time, they’ve been held below 100 pts six different times. Now I’m not guaranteeing that will happen again tonight. But this is one of the highest O/U lines for any Warriors game this season. The Under is 2-0 for them w/ a total of 230 or higher. They are 17-7 Under when on a losing streak of three or more games. Meanwhile, Houston went into the Break on a four-game Under streak. Some recently added pieces may lead to further inefficiency with the offense. 10* Under Rockets/Warriors

10* Under Spurs/Thunder (8:05 ET): The “Rodeo Road Trip” is something the Spurs have been dealing with for decades. But this year’s is going as poorly as any in history. They’ve lost the first five games and in doing so they have allowed an average of 122.2 PPG. Last night was a 127-120 loss in Denver, which was actually the closest the Spurs have been in any game on this trip since the first one against the Clippers. Tonight they are in OKC to face the surprising Thunder, who have already gone over their projected season win total of 31.5. 

The Thunder have won 9 of their last 11 games. But one of those two losses came Sunday, here at home vs. Boston. They lost 112-111 but did cover the 1.5-point spread. That’s a very good (and hot!) Celtics team, so there’s no reason for OKC to hang its collective head in shame. What’s interesting is that the 112 pts allowed were the most in any game since a win over Orlando on 1.22. They’ve been doing a lot better than the Spurs recently, giving up just 104.6 PPG in their L5 contests. 

Despite the Spurs’ defensive deficiencies, I like this one to go Under. The teams met last month in San Antonio and the Thunder prevailed 109-103. That game had a total of 217.0. The Spurs shot 41.9% from three-point range in that game, something they almost certainly won’t repeat tonight. With the Thunder, it’s the number that’s key. In games with a total of 220 or higher, the Under is 16-3 for them this season. That includes 9-2 at home. 10* Under Spurs/Thunder

10* Over Blazers/Jazz (10:35 ET): For more than a month, Utah was the hottest team in basketball. From 12/11 through 1/25, they won 19 of 21 games to get as high as second place in the Western Conference. But all of a sudden, things have taken a sharp turn with them losing five straight while also going 0-5 ATS. Tonight they host a team that has ironically swung in the other direction. Portland is 5-1 SU/ATS its last six games to get within four games of .500 and 2.5 games of the 8th and final playoff spot.

The Blazers played last night and won 125-117 at home vs. San Antonio. A 40-point 4Q is what propelled them to victory as Damian Lillard had another great individual performance and the team shot 53.3% overall including 18 of 37 from three-point range. They got to 125 pts despite taking only 12 free throw attempts. It was the 4th straight Blazers that went Over the total and I should also point out that it was the eighth time in their L10 games surrendering at least 117 points. Last time on the road, they gave up 127 at Denver. 

These teams just met Saturday in Portland w/ the Blazers coming out on top by a score of 124-107. Four days later the Jazz played in Denver (one day after Portland did) and they lost 98-95. After some poor shooting efforts, I look for the Jazz to pick it up offensively tonight at home where they average 111 PPG on 48% shooting. Wednesday was the first time they were held below 100 points since December 9th. Whether they win or lose, a bounce back offensively is all but inevitable here. 10* Over Blazers/Jazz

10* Under Sixers/Celtics (8:35 ET): This is the primetime game on ABC as we get two of the Eastern Conference’s best teams squaring off. Boston is in a third place tie with Miami right now, but interestingly enough only two teams in the entire league (Bucks, Lakers) can claim to having a better YTD point differential than the Celtics. Getting this game at home is pretty huge for them (Boston) as Philly is only 9-16 SU on the road, compared to 22-2 SU at home. The 76ers are currently 6th in the East, two games back of the Celtics.

Boston has won five of its last six games (also 5-1 ATS) including two straight. In the five wins, they’ve allowed no more than 107 points. The one loss saw them concede 123 to the Pelicans, but that was on the road and the game still stayed Under. That’s part of a 5-game Under streak the Celtics carry into tonight. Boston is top five in the league in defensive efficiency and I expect them to hold the Sixers offense, which is averaging just 106.1 PPG on the road, in check tonight. 

But the Celtics may have a problem on the offensive end here as Kemba Walker is questionable with a knee injury. That same knee caused him to miss a game in January and Walker scored only 13 points (5 of 13 shooting) in Thursday’s win over Golden State. Enes Kanter may also be out because of a hip injury. The 76ers have really had the Celtics’ number as they look to make it a 4-0 season sweep tonight. In the previous three matchups, they’ve held Boston to an average of just 100 PPG. The Sixers are 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, but only 19th in offensive efficiency. 10* Under Sixers/Celtics

10* Over Hornets/Wizards (7:05 ET): We’ve got two bad teams here, each desperate for a win. Charlotte did win its last game (Tuesday vs. NY), but had lost eight in a row prior to that come from behind effort. Washington, meanwhile, has given up an ungodly 303 total points its last two games combined and neither of those went to overtime! Something has to give here as the Hornets’ last four games have all stayed Under while the Wizards last four games have all gone Over. I think Washington’s trend is the more likely to continue.

It is becoming difficult to explain just how awful the Wizards are defensively. Last in the league in efficiency and points allowed (121.3 per game), they have allowed 134 or more points in four of their last six contests. What makes Tuesday’s 151-131 loss in Milwaukee all the more humiliating is that the Bucks played without Giannis Antetokounmpo, yet still managed to shoot 56.6% from the field including 19 of 36 on three-point attempts. The Wizards allowed 88 points in the first half alone!

Charlotte is the league’s lowest scoring team (103.1 PPG), but it would be foolish to think they are incapable of “going off” against the defensively inept Wizards. They’ve averaged 116 points in two prior meetings with them this season. The lone game here in D.C. was a 125-118 final (in favor of the Wizards) as both teams shot better than 50% and combined to make 28 three-pointers. This is about as low a total as you’re going to get on a Washington game these days, so play accordingly. 10* Over Hornets/Wizards

10* Over Pelicans/Cavaliers (7:35 ET): After losing the first two games with Zion Williamson on the court, New Orleans finally broke through with a win on Sunday, beating the Celtics 123-108 in a game they (meaning the Pelicans) were actually favored to win. After that performance, the Pelicans have to like their chances going up against a Cleveland side that is one of the league’s worst and will be playing the second night of a back to back. One thing for certain is that the potential for a LOT of scoring is present.

The Cavaliers did pick up a rare victory last night, winning 115-100 in Detroit. They closed as 6.5-point underdogs and Kevin Love scored all 20 of his points in the first half. It was Cleveland’s first win in over two weeks and snapped a seven-game losing streak. The game also went Over, the third straight Cavs’ game to do so. The Over is now 11-3 for this team in the month of January, which really isn’t all that surprising considering they have posted the league’s second worst defensive efficiency rating. Only Washington is worse.

New Orleans has also been going Over quite a bit this month with a 10-3 Over mark. This is a team that can score and Williamson only makes them stronger at that end of the floor. But the Pelicans’ problem remains defense as they actually give up more points per game (117.4) than Cleveland. They are 28th overall in PPG allowed (only Atlanta & Washington worse). With that distinction + Cleveland’s own defensive inefficiencies, look for a ton of scoring tonight. New Orleans is 7-1 Over off a DD win. 10* Over Pelicans/Cavaliers

10* Over Spurs/Bulls (8:05 ET): This is the second game of a back to back for San Antonio, who lost yesterday to Toronto 110-106 as a 3.5-point home dog. It was the Spurs’ second straight home defeat by exactly four points (also lost 110-106 to Phoenix on Friday) and now they’ve got to fly to Chicago to face a Bulls team that’s off a 118-106 victory at Cleveland Saturday night. But I’d be in no rush to bet the Bulls in this situation as they haven’t posted B2B wins in over a month. 

The Spurs have not missed the playoffs since the year before they drafted Tim Duncan. That’s quite the streak and year in, year out, you always expected this to be one of the best defensive teams in the league. That has NOT been the case this year, however. The Spurs have slipped to 23rd in defensive efficiency and are also giving up 115.8 PPG on the road. More than anything, that’s what’s turned this into a fringe playoff team. They are 26-17 Over in all games this season including 13-7 on the road. 

Chicago has had trouble stringing together two straight competent offensive efforts, but they should hopefully exploit the fact that San Antonio is letting opponents connect on almost 38% of three-point attempts on the road. It was a nice game offensively vs. the Cavaliers Saturday as the Bulls shot 51% from the field. The only problem was they also let Cleveland shoot 50% overall, which included 13 of 30 from three-point range. The Bulls are a sub-.500 team (18-30 SU) and the Spurs are 15-5 Over this season vs. such opponents. 10* Over Spurs/Bulls

10* Over Suns/Grizzlies (6:05 ET): These teams have already met three times this season and the Under has cashed every time. But there were 219, 223 and 235 total pts scored in those games. The problem was that - as the scoring increased - so did the O/U line. This is the first time we’ve seen a decrease in the O/U line from the previous meeting and I feel like we should take advantage. Memphis has become quite the high scoring team this year, averaging 115.1 PPG. But they are actually giving up more than they score (116.7 at home), so high-scoring games are nothing new for them. Take the Over in this one. 

Phoenix, who I rate as a better team that Memphis, is hopeful that the trend continues of the road team winning in this series. It’s happened in all three previous meetings this year and the last four overall. On Friday, the Suns traveled to San Antonio and picked up a key 103-99 win over the Spurs, pulling them a bit closer to the #8 spot in the Western Conference, a spot currently occupied by Memphis. Despite the low-scoring nature of the last game, the Suns are averaging 112.8 PPG while allowing 113.7 PPG.

The Over is 9-6 in Phoenix’ games this season when the total is 230+ points. They are 19-13 Over vs. teams averaging at least 106 points per game.  The Grizzlies just scored 125 in Detroit Friday night, one game after being held below 100 (by Boston) for the first time since December 4th. Not only that, the Grizz have actually scored 110+ pts in 14 of their last 15 games. In terms of pace (# of possessions per game), both of these teams are in the top 10 in the league. 10* Over Suns/Grizzlies

10* Over Lakers/Sixers (8:35 ET): For the second week in a row, the Lakers are featured on ABC in primetime. They can only hope this game goes as well as last week when they downed the Rockets 124-115 in Houston. But that was the start of a five-game road trip. Tonight is the end of the trip and they’re in Philly where the host Sixers are a very strong 20-2 SU. So I can’t advise laying points in this spot. But I do see the Lakers going Over for the eighth time in their last nine games.

Philadelphia is 6-2 Under its last eight games and has even been held below 100 pts four different times during that stretch. But the key there is all four times were on the road. At home, the Sixers are up to 111.4 PPG on the year. This is not the most efficient offensive team in the league, far from it, but they are 5-1 Over when coming off a double digit loss. They lost by 12 in Toronto Wednesday night due in large part to shooting only 38% from the floor. At home, against a tired defense, you can look for them to shoot a heck of a lot better..

The Lakers just put up 128 points Thursday night in a win over Brooklyn. They shot 50% from the floor as they won for a 12th time in the last 14 games. Seeing as LeBron and company average 114.6 PPG on the road, I don’t envision them having much difficulty scoring tonight. The Lakers actually average slightly more PPG on the road than at home. Philadelphia put up 46 three-point attempts in their last game, a clear sign that’s going to be a big part of their arsenal moving forward. 10* Over Lakers/Sixers

10* Over Bucks/Hornets (3:05 ET): Charlotte is not good at all, but I feel Milwaukee can “carry them” to an Over here in Paris, France. The location is the reason for the early start time, obviously and I don’t expect that either team “packed its defense.” Of course, the Bucks lead the league in scoring at 119.4 PPG and should have little difficulty scoring on a Hornets team that they already hung 137 on in a win earlier this season. The Bucks are strong defensively as well, but could “slip up” a bit in the unfamiliar environment. 

Now I realize there weren’t any defensive issues for Milwaukee in either of its last two games. They held both Brooklyn and Chicago under 100 points in a pair of victories, extending the team’s win streak to seven games and overall run to 12-1 since X-Mas. Compared to recent games, this is a really low total for the Bucks, who rarely see O/U lines below 220 pts these days. The total for that 1st meeting with the Hornets was 226 and went Over, so it’s a little surprising to see the number this low, even in Paris. 

In that first meeting, the Bucks blitzed the Hornets with 56.5% shooting en route to 137 points. It was one of the most efficient offensive performances all year from the best team in the league. Charlotte is trending in a very different direction lately as they have lost seven in a row and failed to hit 100 in the L2 losses. But I’ll call for an improved effort on the offensive end tonight. Milwaukee has gone Over in four straight games vs. sub-.500 opponents while the Over is 17-7 for Charlotte when they’re off a DD loss at home (lost 106-83 to Orlando on Sunday). 10* Over Bucks/Hornets

8* Over Heat/Wizards (7:35 ET): On average, Wizards’ games are the highest scoring of any team’s in the league. You’re looking at an average of 234.1 points per game. That’s obviously very high. What is - by far - the most interesting thing about this team is that their dramatic split between offensive and defensive efficiency. While they’ve recently gotten less efficient on the offensive end, it is their defensive efficiency - or rather lack of it - that’s really killing them. They are also dead last in the league in points allowed.

Miami is coming off an overtime win against Sacramento. That improved their home record to a league-best 19-1. I played accordingly in a recent home and home with the Spurs, taking them at home and fading on the road. I won both times. This spread is a little high, but what’s notable is how the Heat’s scoring average jumps here at home to 115.7 PPG. They only average 108.0 PPG on the road. That’s actually a pretty sizable split. Regardless if home or away, the Over is 26-16-1 in all Heat games this season.

So a home matchup against the worst defensive team in the league seems poised to go Over. The Wizards allowing a shocking 122.2 PPG on the road. Opponents shoot nearly 50% from the field! These teams have met twice already this season with the home team winning both games. Another key is the Wizards are 13-4 Over in games vs. .500 or better foes. Look for this to turn into a track meet. 8* Over Heat/Wizards

10* Under Bulls/Sixers (7:05 ET): Chicago picked up a win it really “needed” to have on Wednesday, beating Washington 115-106 as a 3.5-point home favorite. The Bulls are now 15-27 SU on the year but by no means out of playoff contention, despite losing 7 of the last 10 games. They are just four back of the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. But they are banged up right now with multiple players injured including Otto Porter and Wendell Carter Jr. Friday looks like a tough assignment at Philadelphia, who is 19-2 SU at home.

The Sixers have one of the sharpest home vs. road splits in the league right now. They are only 7-14 SU away from home and that’s why they’re not any higher in the Eastern Conference standings. They did beat Brooklyn here at home Wednesday night, 117-106 as a 7-point favorite. Joel Embiid remains out indefinitely, so they are short-handed right now as well. Before the win over the Nets (where they shot 51.1%), the Sixers had lost six of eight (all six losses on the road) and had even been held under 100 points four times. 

Philly, as you might expect, is a lot better defensively when at home. They give up just 102.1 PPG here, which is one of the better averages in the league. Some of that is certainly due to Embiid, but even without their All Star center, they still just held the Nets (with Kyrie) to 106 pts. Three of the Sixers last four opponents have not shot well. At the same time, they are 9-5 Under after scoring 115+ points. This O/U line exceeds what both teams’ games are averaging for the season. 10* Under Bulls/Sixers

10* Under Spurs/Raptors (6:05 ET): San Antonio had been playing a lot better of late, including big wins over both Milwaukee and Boston. But the key word in that last sentence is “had.” Friday’s loss in Memphis saw Greg Popovich’s team give up 134 points. This is simply not the same strong defensive team we’re used to seeing under Popovich as they let the Grizzlies shoot 52% for the game. But considering they held Milwaukee and Boston below 42%, the Spurs are still capable of playing some good defense. 

The Spurs are 13-4 Over their last 17 games including 4-0 the L4. But we know they can’t possibly be any worse at the defensive end than they were in Memphis. In the same vein, Toronto’s last game should not have gone Over, but they went to OT in Charlotte and that resulted in a 112-110 final score. The Raptors will take the win, but Under bettors had to be salty about losing a game that was tied 100-100 at the end of regulation. Toronto has now held its last seven opponents to 102 pts or less in regulation, so they aren’t having the kind of defensive issues the Spurs have been experiencing of late. 

The big story coming into tonight’s game is that there is a chance that some of Toronto’s injured starters could be returning. Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol and Norman Powell were all injured in a December 18th win over Detroit. Those absences obviously haven’t hurt the Raptors defensively. Of the trio, Powell is the most likely to return tonight. He’s the least important on the offensive end. Even if Gasol or Siakam is able to play here, I wouldn’t expect a ton of points. Toronto doesn’t give up many points and San Antonio is “due” for a low-scoring game. 10* Under Spurs/Raptors

10* Under Hornets/Jazz (9:05 ET): Charlotte plays at the slowest pace in the entire league, meaning their games average the fewest number of possessions. Theoretically, that should make them an “Under team,” but lately that has NOT been the case with their last four games all going Over the total. But tonight’s trip to Utah should put an end to that streak as the Jazz are a really solid defensive team, especially when they are playing at home. Take the Under.

Early on in the season, Utah looked like a disappointment. Not anymore. They’ve gone 12-1 SU since December 11th and are a perfect 7-0 since X-Mas. This was a team I felt was primed to finish in the top four in the Western Conference this year (along with the Lakers, Clippers and Rockets). Other than a wild 128-126 win over defensively inept New Orleans on Monday, the Jazz have held each of their previous five opponents to 104 pts or less. Three of them were held below 100.

Charlotte’s last game (vs Toronto) should not have gone Over, but did because of overtime. That was a 100-100 game at the end of regulation, which would make it three times in the last five games they’ve failed to top 104 points in regulation. So much for being an “Over team.” Advanced metrics hate this Hornets team as they’ve been outscored by one of the five largest margins in the league this year. They only average 104.6 PPG on the road. 10* Under Hornets/Jazz

10* Under Knicks/Lakers (10:35 ET): The Knicks have started their four game road trip with a couple of high-scoring losses. They went down 120-112 in Phoenix and then 135-132 to the Clippers. While losing certainly isn't irregular for this moribund franchise, scoring lots of points certainly is. Despite what's gone down in the L2 games, they are still 27th in PPG and 26th in offensive efficiency. After they shot a stunning 57.1% from the floor (and still lost!) Sunday, expect a sharp decline in offense tonight as they play the red hot Lakers. Take the Under.

The Lakers have won five in a row, but many of those games have been "too close for comfort." They led big leads slip away against both Phoenix and New Orleans, then needed a 4Q rally to defeat struggling Detroit Sunday night. They're still 20-0 SU vs. teams with losing records, but I think they'd like to be winning a lot more comfortably. One positive takeaway from the win over Detroit is that they had 20 blocked shots (eight coming from Anthony Davis), a sign they are playing good defense. 

The Lakers only allow 103.6 PPG, so again I think it's going to be a long night offensively for the Knicks. In two of the last four games, LA has held its opponent below 100 points. They are 4th in the league in defensive efficiency. This is a high total for both teams as the Lakers are 12-6 Under and the Knicks 8-4 Under when the total is 220 or higher. The Knicks are 9-5 Under this season after allowing 115+ pts and 6-2 Under the L3 seasons after allowing 130+ pts. 10* Under Knicks/Lakers

10* Under Pacers/Hornets (7:05 ET): In spite of their respective records, it is Indiana that comes into Monday having lost B2B games while Charlotte has won two straight. The Pacers have had to make due w/o Victor Oladipo all season, but now are also missing Malcolm Brogden and possibly T.J. McConnell (who left the last game w/ an ankle injury). The Hornets are a team that should feel pretty lucky to even be 15-23 SU right now as their scoring differential (-6.5 per game) ranks 5th worst in the entire league! I'm taking the Under in this one. 

Now, if you recall, I had the Over in Indiana's last game. That was Saturday (when McConnell got hurt) in a 116-111 loss at lowly Atlanta. The Pacers were 7-point favorites heading into that one, but had no answer for the Hawks' Trae Young, who had 41 points. A disastrous 1st quarter (allowed 43 pts!) doomed Indiana in that game. While I'm not about to lay points with them here, I do see them playing better at the defensive end tonight. 

Charlotte ended 2019 on a six-game losing streak, but has started its New Year w/ a pair of three-point wins over Cleveland and Dallas. The latter was a real shocker as the Hornets came into Big D as 11.5-point underdogs. Note the 123-120 win came in overtime though (103-103 at end of regulation)  and required Charlotte to overcome a 12-point 4Q deficit. The Hornets play at the slowest tempo in the league and are only averaging 104.4 PPG. They aren't a good shooting team either. This has all the makings of a low-scoring game. 10* Under Pacers/Hornets

8* Over Grizzlies/Suns (8:05 ET): Part of me is a little trepidacious about taking the Over with Memphis one night after they exploded for 140 points on 51.0% overall shooting, which included 18 of 39 from three-point range. But this is a team that's now gone Over in four straight as well as 10 of its last 12 games. And the Grizz are matched up with a Suns squad that's been delivering some pretty similar results as six of its last eight games have gone Over. Take the Over here. 

With the Suns, who I was on Friday (Game of the Week), 14 of their 19 games have gone Over and that's with all but three having an O/U line of at least 220 points. The Over is 5-2 here when the total is 230 pts or higher. Them coming through against the Knicks (won 120-112 as 7-pt chalk) made it four straight ATS wins as well. This is a team that ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency and now they have Deandre Ayton back in the starting lineup. They average 116.9 PPG at home. 

This is not the same Memphis team of years' past as they are playing fast. Only three teams in the league - Milwaukee, Houston and Washington - average more possessions per game. So that helps. So does the fact that the Grizzlies are not a good defensive team as they give up 116.5 PPG. Both teams are in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. The first two meetings of the year both stayed Under, but that's because each time the losing side shot poorly from 3-pt range. Not this time. 8* Over Grizzlies/Suns

10* Over Pacers/Hawks (7:35 ET): I don't figure Atlanta will do very well in this spot. They are playing in the second night of a back to back and that's a situation they're already a horrendous 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS in this season. If that record isn't bad enough, they are being outscored by an incredible 25.0 points per game in those seven losses. Making this B2B even tougher than usual is the fact they were spotted an 18-point 1Q lead in Boston last night and couldn't hold it, losing 109-106 to the Celtics. Look for this game to go Over as the tired Hawks figure to allow plenty of points. 

Defense has been a problem for Atlanta all season. They are 28th in the league in efficiency giving up over 1.1 points per possession. Only Washington, who is playing some historically bad defense, allows more points per game. In those seven losses the Hawks have taken when playing the second night of a back to back, they have given up an average of 125.1 PPG. All signs points to a long night for the home team here and them giving up a lot of points to Indiana. 

The Pacers haven't been shy about scoring recently, reaching 112 pts in four of their last five games. Problem is they've also given up 113+ in five of their last six, including a 124-116 home loss to Denver Thursday night. Malcolm Brogden (back) will be sitting next to Victor Oladipo on the bench for this one, but for all the reasons listed above, expect Indiana to still score plenty. Brogden has hardly played at all during a stretch in which Indiana has gone 4-1 Over its L5 games. Atlanta plays at a pretty fast pace (4th in adj tempo), which helps. 10* Over Pacers/Hawks

10* Over Clippers/Kings (5:05 ET): I wouldn't go counting on Sacramento to play anything resembling "stellar defense" tonight. More than just about anybody, the Kings are looking to say "goodbye" to 2019 as they've now lost seven in a row and failed to cover the spread six times. Some of these losses have been close (4 of the last 5 have been by 5 pts or less), but the common theme has been lack of defense. They've given up at least 110 points in all but one of the seven consecutive defeats. 

Compared to the Kings, the Clippers are obviously in a much better position entering 2020. While they're looking to rebound from a 120-107 upset loss at the hands of the Utah Jazz (were 7-point favorites), I'm willing to call the Clips the third best team in the West right now. They beat the Lakers on X-Mas, though they needed to come from behind to do so. Had they not come back in that one, then it would actually be a three-game losing streak entering tonight. Still, LA's record is 23-11 and they are outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game. 

The road has been a little tricky for the Clips however and that's why I'm not about to lay this number. Their road record is just 9-8 SU and that includes X-Mas, which really wasn't a "true" road win. It's not like the Clippers' offense suffers away from home as their scoring average (114.5 PPG) is pretty much in line w/ what they average at Staples Center (116.1). The issue is defense as they go from allowing 105.5 PPG at home to 112.3 on the road. Compounding matters here is they just lost one of their top defenders, Patrick Beverley, to a wrist injury. 10* Over Clippers/Kings

10* Over Nets/T'wolves (8:05 ET): Two games ago, Brooklyn put forth one of the most heinous shooting nights in league history, making only 26.9% of its field goal attempts. That was the lowest shooting percentage by any team in almost seven years. They made just EIGHT two-pointers, the fewest in a NBA game since 1950! While shooting was slightly better Saturday night in Houston, they still made only 40% from the field and failed to break 100 points (lost 108-98).

Speaking of heinous, Minnesota is 1-12 SU in December (2-10-1 ATS). The lone was by one point at Sacramento. As you might expect, the Timberwolves have had their fair share of shooting issues as well. The last six games have seen them shoot below 40% overall and the most points they've scored in any of those games is 106. As a result, the Under has hit in all six games.

While I wouldn't look to either of these teams for shooting tips, here's the thing. Both are due to start making some shots. This poor rash of shooting cannot possibly continue. I don't consider either to be a great defensive team. Brooklyn allows 113.6 PPG on the road while Minnesota gives up 114.9 PPG at home. On offense, both still average slightly more than 110 PPG. So this is a case where if we can just get back to "average," then the Over is assured. It was a 127-126 game when they met in Brooklyn back in October. Granted there was a lot more star power on the court back then. But this total is just too low even if the Twolves' starts join the Nets' Kyrie Irving on the bench. 10* Over Nets/T'wolves

10* Under Thunder/Raptors (6:05 ET): Last night saw Toronto get revenge for its Christmas Day loss as they went to Boston and beat the Celtics 113-97 as a seven-point underdog. Making that win all the more impressive is how short-handed the Raptors came into the game. Three of the team's top seven rotation players were out, including leading scorer Pascal Siakam. While Kyle Lowry said afterwards that the team "just doesn't care" about the injuries, this is admittedly a tough spot having to play a back to back, even at home. 

Speaking of surprises, Oklahoma City has done much better than advertised after losing both Russell Westbrook and Paul George in the offseason. They are currently 7th in the Western Conference, something that no one expected at the start of the season. The Thunder have won five of six including a two point win in Charlotte Friday night. 

This looks like a tough spot for both teams. Toronto is short-handed and playing in the second night of a back to back. Oklahoma City is playing its second road game in three nights. The Thunder have scored only 201 total points the L2 games and come in averaging just 102.6 PPG on the road for the season. The Raptors held Boston to just 97 points last night in an incredible effort. This has all the makings of a low-scoring game. 10* Under Thunder/Raptors

10* Over Cavs/Celtics (4:05 ET): These teams met roughly three weeks ago, right here in Boston, and the Celtics rolled to a 110-88 win and cover as 13-point favorites. There really is no reason to expect this game will go much differently, although the Celtics are at the minor disadvantage of having played on X-Mas. Still though, this is a game they "should" win. But laying this many points isn't something I'd typically advise. What I would advise though is to play the Over. 

In that last meeting, Cleveland had an awful shooting night, making only 39.6% of their field goal attempts including 7 of 31 from three-point range. Look for them to shoot better here. For the first time all season, the Cavs have won three straight. Now all three wins were at home, close and against bad teams. But at least they have some of the dreaded "momentum" (still hate that word!) coming into this December rematch. 

The problem Cleveland will have though is the defensive end. The only other time the Cavs took the court on 3+ days rest so far this season, they wound up giving up 127 points to a Detroit team that is hardly an offensive juggernaut. They are 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. Boston is #5 in offensive efficiency and has averaged 113.8 points over its last five games. They should not have much difficulty putting points on the board in this one. They shoot 47.5% overall/38.6% from three/84% from the FT line at home. 10* Over Cavs/Celtics

10* Under Wizards/Pistons (7:05 ET): Washington has one of the more interesting statistical profiles in the league. They are 4th in offensive efficiency (trailing only "heavyweight teams" Dallas, Milwaukee and Houston) but dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency. That's simply not a "winning formula," so it's not a surprise to me that they are stuck near the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a 9-20 SU record. Of course, given the statistical profile, it's also not a surprise to see that the Wizards are one of the top Over teams (17-11-1). 

Detroit again finds itself mired in mediocrity. They are clearly better than the worst teams in the Eastern Conference, but also aren't nearly good enough to win a playoff series. Right now, just making the playoffs seems unlikely as the Pistons are 11-20 SU, which is barely better than the Wizards! They've lost five in a row (0-5 ATS as well) and have been outscored by over 15 PPG during that stretch. 

The Pistons' recent defensive efforts leave a lot to be desired. Given that and who they are facing tonight, you might be thinking Over is the right call. But O/U lines, such as this one, are starting to get a bit high for Wizards games. A big reason for tonight's high O/U line is that these teams just met 10 days ago here in Detroit and it was a ridiculous shooting night by both sides. Washington ended up winning 133-119. Don't expect anything like that here as the teams are likely to come out rusty after the holiday break. The dichotomy of "all offense, no defense" for the Wizards has to tighten moving forward. Oddsmakers aren't going to let this team keep going Over "all the time."  10* Under Wizards/Pistons

10* Under Bucks/Sixers (2:35 ET): Christmas is widely considered to be the time we can start making conclusions about the NBA season. At the moment, I don't think there's any debating that Milwaukee is the best team in the league right now. After posting a NBA-high 60 regular season wins LY, the Bucks are well on their way to surpassing that mark in 2020 as they've started 27-4 and have won 20 of their last 21 games. The thing is they have been dominant at BOTH ends of the floor, ranking 2nd in offensive efficiency (behind only Dallas) and 1st in defensive efficency (by a wide margin).

Philadelphia figures to be in the mix for the #4-#6 seed in the Eastern Conference. I have them below not just Milwaukee, but Boston and Toronto as well. After suffering three losses in a row, including their first two of the year at home, the Sixers come into X-Mas off B2B wins. They posted 125 pts in each of them, but note those came against Washington and Detroit. The former is dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. But the 76ers do have to be respected at the defensive end where they rank #7 in defensive efficiency.

It's the offensive end where Philly can sometimes be pretty pedestrian. They are a mediocre 14th in offensive efficiency. Look no further than last week's loss to Miami (where I cashed the Under) for evidence of this team's offensive shortcomings. Facing a zone, they scored just 104 pts. The games before & after that, they were held below 100. Milwaukee is deadly at the offensive end, but the fact the 76ers allow just 101.1 PPG at home must be respected. That's #1 in the league among home teams. Milwaukee has held the L4 opponents that weren't Dallas to 108 or less. 10* Under Bucks/Sixers

8* Under Jazz/Heat (7:35 ET): This number isn't nearly as high as the other two matchups in this package, but I still like the Under here as Miami's recent rash of high-scoring games should come to a halt here. It's all about the opponent as Utah plays slow (17th in pace) and is also near the top of the league in fewest number of points allowed per game (106.3). Surprisingly, Miami plays at an even slower pace and they aren't far behind the Jazz in terms of PPG allowed. Let's make it 3 for 3 with Unders tonight! 

For some, the Heat have gone Over in seven straight games, though there were a couple times in that stretch where if you bet the early number, you could have cashed an Under. (I did that in their game vs. Philadelphia last Weds). Still, it's been a hot shooting stretch (pun intended!) for the Heat, culminating in them making 55.8% of their shots against the Knicks Saturday night. The Jazz will not be so generous. Their opponents are hitting just 44.2% for the year. 

Utah doesn't average a ton of points itself and their scoring average on the road is just 105.8, one of the lowest in the league. Miami is really strong defensively at home, permitting just 104.7 PPG, a big reason for their 12-1 SU record here. Utah also shot well in its last game (52.0 FG%) but that was against Charlotte in a daytime tip. The Jazz are coming off five straight games vs. sub-.500 foes, so they may not be ready for the step up in class that awaits them tonight. 8* Under Jazz/Heat 

10* Under Wizards/Knicks (7:05 ET): Wizards games - on average - remain the highest scoring in the league at a whopping 239.3 PPG. I can't remember the last time a team saw its games average that many points over the course of a full season. The Wiz currently rank 4th in the league in offensive efficiency and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency. I think the ridiculous amount of scoring we're seeing in their games is due for a downturn as we get set to hit the New Year. Take the Under in this one. 

Tonight's opponent happens to be the lowest scoring team in the NBA, that being the Knicks, who come in averaging a scant 103.1 PPG. While they are 28th in defensive efficiency, the Knicks also rank 28th in offensive efficiency. Take away a shocking 143 point effort against the inept Hawks the last time the Knicks took the floor here at MSG and the offensive numbers get even uglier. They shot just 40.2% from the field against Milwaukee on Saturday. 

With two of the bottom three teams in defensive efficiency meeting here, you do have to recognize the potential for lots of points to be scored. But that's built into the line, which as it stands would be the highest O/U for any Knicks game this season. The Under is already 5-1 for them when the total is 220 pts or higher. Washington has not shot the ball well recently either. That gets counteracted by the fact they play at a very fast tempo, however, New York ranks just 26th in that metric. So expect this to be a "slower" than usual game for the Wiz. 10* Under Wizards/Knicks

8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): Yet another total that is too high. Now I recognize that these teams have gone Over the last six times they've met. However, we are also looking at the #26 (Cleveland) and #30 (Atlanta) teams in offensive efficiency here. Cleveland is the second lowest scoring team in the NBA at 103.9 PPG (ahead of only the Knicks), so their games don't even come close to averaging what the total is here. Atlanta games, on average, also fall short of this number. Take the Under here.

Cleveland has had three days off to savor what is just its second win streak of the year. They are coming off wins over Charlotte and Memphis, both here at home. The Charlotte game was really low scoring, a 100-98 final, even though the Cavs shot a season-high 54.1% from the field. They play at a really slow pace (25th in adj tempo) so shooting well, which they rarely do anyway, hardly matters. But the encouraging sign for the Cavs has been their improved defense as they held both the Hornets and Grizzlies to just over 40.0% from the field.

Atlanta has lost seven in a row and can be just dreadful at times defensively. They did recently allow the Knicks to score 143 points in an unforgivable performance, but don't look for history to repeat itself here. Leading scorer John Collins, his 25-game suspension served, is expected back tonight for the Hawks. But him coming in and playing well seems far-fetched. The Cavs have seen the Under hit in all four home games w/ a total of 220 or higher this year and they are 4-0 Under playing with two days rest. Atlanta shoots a league-worst 31.9% from three-point range. 8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers

10* Over Nuggets/Lakers (9:35 ET): This is a golden opportunity for Denver as they face the Lakers tonight and there's no LeBron James. The Lakers want you to believe that the decision not to play James tonight has nothing to do with "load management," but the reality is they have a X-Mas day game coming up against the Clippers that I'm sure has their attention. They come into this game having dropped two in a row after losing only once in their previous 18 games. They are also 0-4 ATS L4. But now they're back home for just the second time since December 1st. 

Denver has won five straight, but all of those wins were at home. This continues to be one of the best defensive teams in the league as they allow a league-low 101.7 PPG. Perhaps even more impressive is that over the last 15 games, the Nuggets have held every opponent but one to 105 points or less. The most they've allowed during the entire stretch is 108! The Nuggets are 19-8 Under in all games this season, including 11-1 when facing a team with a winning record. 

The top Under team in the league facing the LeBron-less Lakers has resulted in a very low total by modern NBA standards. Most Denver games aren't too far off from this total, but for the Lakers it's a low number. LA has gone Under three striaght games, but two of those had totals of at least 227 points. Yes, the Under hit in Denver earlier this month, 105-96 Lakers win. While James is out, Kyle Kuzma is expected to return here for the Lakers. Look for this one to sneak Over. 10* Over Nuggets/Lakers

10* Under Heat/Sixers (7:05 ET): Both teams are in off disappointing losses. Miami, for the first time all year, fell to a sub-.500 opponent as they went down 118-111 in Memphis Monday. Philadelphia, playing without Joel Embiid, lost by 20 at Brooklyn on Sunday. As both look to bounce back Wednesday night, Philly seemingly has the edge as they are a perfect 14-0 at home so far. They are the only team that hasn't lost a home game this season. Embiid is expected back for tonight's game while Miami is still a little short-handed. But Under is going to be the call here. 

The 20-point loss to Brooklyn was the Sixers' worst of the season, at least in terms of margin of defeat. The team is only 3-3 w/o Embiid in the lineup and his replacement, Al Horford, really struggled Sunday. Horford shot just 5 of 15 overall and was 0 for 6 from three-point range. You obviously expect Philadelphia's offensive output to go up w/ Embiid back, but don't discount the defensive benefits he brings either. A big reason why the Sixers are still undefeated at home is that they only give up 98.9 PPG here at the Wells Fargo Center. That's easily the fewest number of PPG allowed by any team at home this year. Overall, the Sixers are 6th in defensive efficiency. 

Miami is also a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and they'll need to more closely resmble that ranking here as opposed to what we saw Monday. They allowed 73 pts in the first half to Memphis, which is not something you'd expect to see. The L5 Heat games have all gone Over, but I'm banking on that defensive effort improving. Also, the Heat are averaging just 107.5 PPG on the road. It was an easy Under when these teams met here back in November (Sixers won 113-86). 10* Under Heat/Sixers

10* Over Kings/Hornets (7:05 ET): This is a low total for two teams that aren't very good defensively. Granted, Sacramento did show some "defensive chops" in its 100-79 win at Golden State Sunday. But the Warriors are nothing more than a pathetic shell of their former selves at this point. In that same game, the Kings shot over 60% from the field. While it's highly unlikely they'll be able match that kind of shooting here today, that'll be offset by defensive regression. 

Charlotte has scored 85 and 83 points its last two games, yet another reason tonight's O/U is so low. The Hornets actually won one of those two games as they beat Chicago 83-73 on the road last Friday, despite it being their lowest scoring game of the year. It was also their best defensive effort as they held the Bulls to 30% shooting for the game. But that defensive effort didn't last long as the Hornets allowed 107 in a loss at Indiana on Sunday. They've allowed at least 107 in five of their last six games. 

I know both teams have been playing low scoring games of late. But this O/U still doesn't make much sense to me. When the teams met in Sacramento back on October 30th, the total was 223 and the game went Over! That was a 118-111 Hornets win as 7-point underdogs. They shot the ball well. The Kings did not. No Hornets player has scored 20 pts in the L2 games w/ the team shooting a hideous 11 of 63 from three-point range. That's got to improve moving forward. Charlotte allows 112.2 PPG at home. 10* Over Kings/Hornets

10* Over Cavs/Raptors (7:35 ET): I still can't believe that Toronto's last game didn't go Over as they had 65 points by halftime and also allowed 60. Going into the 4th quarter, it was a 90-83 game, meaning 46 points was all I needed in the 4th (yes, I had the Over in case you couldn't tell where this is going!). All three previous quarters saw at least 48 total pts scored. So no problem right? Wrong. The Raptors and Nets combined for only 39 pts over the last 12 minutes. 

But in Cleveland, the Raptors have an ideal opponent to end what is now a five-game Under streak. The Cavs are second worst in the league in defensive efficiency and are giving up an average of over 120 points the last five games. They just allowed 125 against Milwaukee Saturday night, a game which predictably ended in a double digit defeat. They let the Bucks shoot 54.1% from the field. While Milwaukee is the best team in the league right now, let's not sell Toronto short either. They are averaging 115.0 PPG at home this year.

With the Raptors certainly likely to "get theirs" tonight, this one may boil down to how much scoring Cleveland does. While not a good offensive team by any means, the Cavaliers have averaged over 110 PPG their last three contests. These are the kind of games Toronto usually goes Over in as they are 7-3 Over when facing a team w/ a losing record. Last season, three of the four meetings went Over including both here in Toronto. 10* Over Cavs/Raptors

10* Over Nets/Raptors (7:35 ET): Despite missing Kyrie Irving, Caris LeVert and of course Kevin Durant, Brooklyn has still managed to play pretty well. Even in Wednesday's 113-108 loss to Charlotte, they led by as many as 20 points. Losing that game as a 9.5-point favorite certainly had to be disappointing, but the Nets are still 8-3 SU & ATS the L11 games heading into tonight's tilt at Toronto, a place where they have lost eight consecutive times. 

After going 8-2 without Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka, the Raptors have curiously nosedived since both returned to the lineup. They've lost four of five and failed to cover the spread in every game. The lone win was by a single point against Chicago. What really jumps out is they've failed to score 100 points in B2B games. That happening on the road is one thing, but the Clippers just held them to 92 on Wednesday. For the season, the Raptors are averaging 116.3 PPG at home.

Both of these teams have struggled when matched up with opponents that are .500 or better. Toronto is just 3-8 vs. such foes while Brooklyn is 3-6 and hasn't won one on the road. So the total is the focus for tonight and I like the Over. Nets' road games have averaged 228.3 PPG this season. As I mentioned earlier, Toronto's scoring average goes up considerably here at home. They also give up more PPG "North of the Border." The Over is 3-0 this year when Brooklyn is on exactly two days rest. 10* Over Nets/Raptors

10* Under Clippers/T'Wolves (9:35 ET): Most power rankings call the Clippers the third best team in the league right now, the obvious front-runners being Milwaukee and the Lakers. I'm going to disagree. Doc Rivers' team has won three straight, all on the road, and 12 of its last 14 overall. Wednesday saw them deliver a resounding 20-point win in Toronto as for the third time in the last five games they held their opponent under 100 points. I'm looking for another strong defensive effort tonight in Minnesota. 

The Timberwolves have gone Over in five consecutive games, all of them losses which have seen the opposition average a ghastly 130.8 PPG on 54% shooting. It's six-game losing streak overall and while I'm not going to make the case for that to come to an end this evening, I will call for a better defensive effort than what we've been seeing. Don't those awful defensive numbers have to start improving simply by default? Not surprisingly, the O/U line is high for tonight's game. 

Six of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone Over. But the Clippers didn't have Kawhi Leonard or Paul George for any of those. This is a better defensive team now, one that should keep Minnesota in check tonight. While they've yet to face Minnesota this season, LA is 5-0 Under against the rest of the Northwest Division. Those turning on ESPN tonight expecting lots of points will end up disappointed. 10* Under Clippers/T'Wolves

8* Over Grizzlies/Suns (9:05 ET): Memphis has increased its scoring the last two games, which it will need to continue to do tonight as they face Phoenix. Scoring 112 wasn't enough Saturday night in Utah as they gave up 126. But 110 was enough Monday when they faced Golden State. But the Suns are far more prolific offensively than the Warriors. (Words I did not plan on typing this season!) It's going to take another strong offensive effort from a team that doesn't play much defense to win this one. Take the Over.

With so many of the "usual contenders" in the Western Conference (like Golden State and San Antonio) having down years, the Suns are one of the teams trying to step up and fill that playoff void. They currently have the NBA's second longest active playoff drought, but right now are in the top eight w/ an 11-12 SU record. It's tenuous though. Phoenix remains shaky defensively as the last five games have seen them allow 49.0% shooting and 117.6 PPG.

The Suns can score though. Only four teams are averaging more points per game. They should have no problems here against a Memphis side giving up over 115 PPG. Good news for playing the Over in this one is that both teams are in the top 10 in pace of play. The Over is 10-3 in Suns' home games, including 4-1 when the number is 230 pts or higher. 8* Over Grizzlies/Suns

8* Under Lakers/Magic (7:05 ET): The Lakers have not lost a game outside of Staples Center all year. Their only "road" loss was the season opener against the Clippers where they were the designated "road team." Things couldn't be going better in LeBron's second year in LA as the team has won 21 of 23 games since that Opening Night to the Clippers. They're on a 4-0 SU/ATS streak entering tonight's game in Orlando and have averaged 139 PPG in the last two.

Orlando had won four of five going into Monday. But that's where they ran into Milwaukee, which was just the start of a brutal scheduling stretch. Now they get the best team from the West, which is followed by a visit from Houston and then a four-game West Coast swing. Remember what I discussed in the analysis for Magic-Bucks. Orlando is both 28th in scoring (3rd worst) and 3rd in points allowed. I had the Under in that last game and it cashed comfortably. The Lakers are not as prolific offensively as Milwaukee, despite what they may have done the L2 games.

The Lakers are also not too far behind Orlando in the defensive rankings as they give up the 5th fewest points per game in the league. So a battle of top five defensive teams sort of lends itself to an Under, no? Orlando is playing at the second slowest pace in the league, meaning their games average the second fewest number of total possessions per game. The fewer possessions a team has, the fewer chances it has to score. It's just that logical. The Magic also are still without one of their best scorers, Nikola Vucevic. 8* Under Lakers/Magic

8* Over Knicks/Blazers (10:05 ET): Once again, we find the Knicks rated near the bottom of the league in all important metrics. They've already made a coaching change, firing David Fizdale, but if you think that's going to lead to any sort of positive turnaround, think again. Sure, "true believers" will point to the fact the Knicks lost by only one in interim Mike Miller's debut, Saturday at home vs. Indiana (lost Fizdale's last two games by a combined 81 points). But the bottom line is this group has lost nine in a row overall and isn't going to get better for a LONG time. 

While the Knicks are one of the league's worst teams, Portland has to be considered among the most disappointing. A regular playoff participant in the Western Conference, the Blazers have started just 9-15 SU. Keep in mind they finished second in the West last year. Following B2B home losses, this should be an easy one, but I'm not about to lay this many points even if the Knicks are the opponent. But what I am confident in saying is Portland will shoot better tonight than it did in its last game. 

The Blazers made just 36.0% of its field goal attempts in the 108-96 loss to Oklahoma City on Sunday. That came after they gave up 136 points to the Lakers on Friday. They did shoot 56% in a win last week vs. Sacramento, so they are capable of putting together a big night offensively. That's what they should do here as the Knicks are pretty terrible defensively. But so are the Blazers, who actually allow MORE PPG (115.4) than the Knicks. Look for a high-scoring game here. 8* Over Knicks/Blazers

8* Over Grizzlies/Warriors (10:35 ET): Two bad teams meeting here. Memphis is 26th in both net efficiency rating and point differential. Golden State is 27th in net efficiency rating and 28th in point differential. With both of the Splash Brothers (Thompson, Curry) out, the Warriors are obviously a shell of their former championship selves. Memphis was expected to be bad.

At least the Grizzlies are getting some good news as rookie Ja Morant is probable to return tonight. That should aid them in the scoring department. Then again, defense has been more of an issue with the team giving up 117 PPG. Without Morant, they did shoot 53.1% on Saturday in Utah, but they let the Jazz shoot over 56% so that led to a 126-112 loss. 

Golden State is only averaging 94.2 points its last five games, which is something I never thought I'd be writing this season. Look for them to start scoring more tonight, however. They are averaging 107.2 PPG at home. Note those L5 games were all on the road. Like Memphis though, this team struggles defensively. They are allowing opponents to shoot almost 40% from three-point range. 8* Over Grizzlies/Warriors

analysis soon

8* Under Magic/Bucks (8:05 ET): Milwaukee looks downright unstoppable right now as their only loss since November 1st came at Utah in the second game of a back to back. Since then, they've won 13 straight and are now outscoring teams by over 13 PPG for the year. This is the best team in basketball. Friday, they beat the Clippers here at home by 28 points! 

Orlando's season got off to a bit of a rocky start as they failed to score 100 points in any of the first seven games. Since then, they've gotten into somewhat of a groove as they'll bring a four game win streak into tonight. Their most recent win was an ugly 93-87 decision in Cleveland where they were 2.5-point favorites. They shot just 39% and it was the 11th time this year they were held below 100 points.

The Magic have the unique distinction of having scored the third fewest points in the league while also allowing the second fewest. It's a little surprising then that they've still gone Over in half their games. Milwaukee is no slouch defensively either as they've held three of the last four opponents below 100 points. They are actually #1 in the league in defensive efficiency by a pretty comfortable margin. So look for this one to stay Under the total. 8* Under Magic/Bucks

10* Over Pacers/Thunder (8:05 ET): Indiana has cemented itself as one of the top six teams in the Eastern Conference by winning 13 of 17. After taking a rare loss on Saturday (119-116 at Philadelphia), they bounced back w/ a relatively easy 117-104 victory over a bad Memphis team. That was also their 6th win in the L7 games, a stretch that has seen them shoot the ball very well. What's remarkable about the offensive effort is that they are lacking in a "go-to" scorer. (Victor Oladipo still out). Can they hot shooting continue tonight in OKC? I think so. Take the Over.

Over those last seven games, the Pacers have scored at least 111 points six times. They are shooting above 50% in the last five. While some might be looking at tonight as the game where they finally "cool off," Oklahoma City is not all that impressive defensively. Twice in the last five games, the Thunder allowed 130 points. While they are coming off a pair of Unders against New Orleans (won both games), look for something different here. There's a notable increase in offense when OKC is at home. They average 111.7 PPG on 48.1% shooting, including 37.1% from 3-pt range. 

That uptick offense should lead to a vastly different result from what we saw in Indiana last month when these teams met. In a 111-85 Pacers' rout, the teams combined to miss 35 of 48 three-point attempts. The Thunder shot just 35.8% for the game. The increase in offense that I'm anticipating tonight may not mean a win for the Thunder, but they should at least "hold their own" when it comes to scoring. This total is a lot lower than either game vs. the Pelicans. The L6 head to head meetings have all gone Under, but this one changes that. 10* Over Pacers/Thunder

10* Under Suns/Hornets (7:05 ET): My own power ratings indicate there's some value on Phoenix here, but it's hard to trust a team that's lost six of seven and laying points on the road. Especially one as "unproven" as the Suns. This team has shown definitely improvement this year as they are a respectable 8-10 SU. Remember that they have finished in the Western Conference basement each of the last three seasons. Charlotte has the same number of wins as Phoenix, but has lost 13 times and has a very poor point differential (-8.5 PPG). For the sake of comparison, the Suns have actually outscored opponents this season. 

Charlotte gave up 137 points in its last game, so they're not exactly playing well either. But that was against Milwaukee. They're not facing the Bucks again here, which is good because they allowed 30+ pts in every quarter of that game. The Bucks shot 56.2%. Expect better defense tonight from the Hornets. As for the offense, you shouldn't expect much. They are only averaging 105.5 PPG. Just four teams are scoring less than that. 

Phoenix also has struggled defensively its last two times out, giving up an average of 130 PPG. Like Charlotte, five of the Suns' last six games have gone Over the total. These teams also have a history of going Over against one another as that's the way the past NINE head to head meetings have gone. But look for this one to be a little different. Road games see the Suns both scoring and allowing fewer points per game. The Under is 3-0 for them this season when they are on the road and the total is 220+ points. 10* Under Suns/Hornets

10* Under Grizzlies/T'Wolves (3:35 ET): While these teams played a high scoring game here in the Twin Cities last month, I'm willing to bank they won't do it again. This is a really high total for Memphis, who stayed Under the only previous game where the total was 230+ points. It was against Houston and they lost 107-100. Twice in the last five games they have failed to even break 100 points. The same can also be said for Minnesota! Take the Under. 

The Grizzlies' last game was a 103-94 loss to Utah. In that game, they were held below 40% shooting and scored only 39 points in the second half. Now it should be noted the Jazz are a good defensive team. But Golden State certainly isn't and Memphis failed to score 100 against them recently. Ja Morant is going to sit this one out due to a back injury, so that's another blow to the Grizzlies' offense. Outside of Morant, there just isn't much consistent scoring for this team. 

Minnesota hasn't played since Wednesday when they won in San Antonio, 113-101. That was the fifth time in six games they went Under. The last four times they've hosted Memphis, the Under is 4-0. The T'wolves have not shot the ball well here at home, making just 42.7% of their field goals including 27.7% on three-point attempts. While they average 118.3 PPG on the road, the T'wolves average only 109.8 PPG on the road. 10* Under Grizzlies/T'wolves

10* Over Mavericks/Suns (9:05 ET): With some of the perennial favorites like Golden State and San Antonio declining greatly this year, some space has opened up near the top of the Western Conference pecking order. Dallas and Phoenix may not end up in the top five, but they definitely both qualify as pleasant early season surprises. The Suns more so as it's been a decade since they made the playoffs. They've finished last in the Conference three straight seasons.

Dallas finished second-to-last in 2018-19, though there was a rather sizable 14-game gap between them and Phoenix. They are the better of the two teams here, though when you factor in the home court advantage, I rate this game as a Pick 'em. But it's the total you want to play tonight as it's two of the league's top offensive teams squaring off. The Mavericks are #1 in offensive efficiency with the Suns not far behind at #6. There should be plenty of points scored here.

The crazy thing about Phoenix's improvement is that it's come without former #1 overall draft choice Deandre Ayton, who played in only one game before getting suspended for 25 (failed drug test). But the Suns are averaging 114.8 PPG and 117.3 PPG when at home. The Mavs average 117.9 PPG overall and 121.0 PPG on the road. As you'd expect, Dallas also gives up more on the road (114.3) than at home. But Phoenix allows more points at home (114.2) than on the road. The Over is 8-2 in Phoenix home games with a total of 220 or higher. The Over is 4-0 in Dallas' road games when the total is 220+.  10* Over Mavericks/Suns

10* Over Nets/Knicks (6:05 ET): Brooklyn isn’t exactly the safest bet in the NBA right now, but they have to be excited about the prospect of catching the Knicks in the second night of a back to back on Sunday. Here at MSG, the Knicks lost last night to the Spurs, 111-104 as 2.5-pt underdogs. That final score also just barely stayed Under the total. Speaking of going Under, that’s what the last five matchups between these teams have done. Not this one though. Take the Over.

It was a much higher O/U line when these area rivals met on 10.25, the second game of the year for both teams. The Nets won that game 113-109, a final score that would mean an Over tonight. But the number was 229 last month. When looking at tonight’s O/U line, that’s quite a change. Kyrie Irving being out is probably the reason for the big decrease. But Brooklyn isn’t good defensively, especially on the road where they give up 118.7 PPG. The Knicks have an even lower defensive efficiency rating. 

The Nets have gone Under in each of their last three games. But even without Irving, they still managed to score 116 points two nights ago against the Kings. The Nets last two games were both at home and they turned in much better defensive efforts than we’re accustomed to seeing from them. My sense is they’ll regress defensively out on the road. The Nets are still playing at one of the five fastest tempos in the league. The Knicks let San Antonio shoot 53.3% overall last night and 52.2% from three-point range. 10* Over Nets/Knicks

10* Over Bulls/Hornets (7:05 ET): Both teams played last night and lost. Chicago fell to Miami, 116-108 at home, while Charlotte dropped a 125-118 decision in Washington. Seven of the last eight times these teams have played, the game has gone Over. That includes three straight. They opened the season against one another here in the Queen City and the Hornets won a wild 126-125 game. Despite that score, we're basically getting the same O/U line. Go Over. 

The Hornets are not a good defensive team. They are bottom six in efficiency. They just allowed the Wizards, who aren't a good team, to shoot 52%. Speaking of efficiency, Charlotte was a lot more efficient offensively than Chicago in that first meeting. They won despite taking 17 less shots. The key was going 23 of 44 from three-point range. Not sure that's a sustainable blueprint, but the Hornets should score a decent number tonight. They average 110 PPG at home.

Chicago has not shot the ball well so far this season, but this is a matchup where they can change that. The Bulls fell behind Miami big last night, but made a game of it late w/ a 41-point 4th quarter. They're playing at a pretty fast tempo this year, which helps because they haven't been all that efficient on the offensive end. They've scored at least 108 in five of their last six games. This just seems like a low total for two teams that both went Over last night. 10* Over Bulls/Hornets

10* Under Rockets/Clippers (10:35 ET): The Clippers finally got Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on the court at the same time Wednesday. The result was exactly what they'd hoped for, a 107-104 triumph over a good Boston team. But it wasn't all "wine and roses" as they turned it over 23 times, 10 of those coming from their aforementioned All-Star duo. Also of note is that the game stayed Under despite going into overtime. The Clippers have been going Under a lot lately (9-3 L12 games) as have the Rockets (9-2 L11), who are the opposition tonight. Look for another Under. 

I had the Under in Houston's last game, which ended up being a 105-95 loss to Denver. That was pretty easily the Rockets' lowest scoring game all year (1st time being held below 100 pts) and James Harden (the NBA's leading scorer at 38.4 PPG) saw his streak of eight straight games w/ 30+ pts come to an end as he "only" scored 27. As a team, the Rockets shot just 12 of 38 from three-point range. It would be easy to say Harden and the rest of the team will have a bounce back game here, but the Clippers are a strong defensive team, made even stronger now that both Leonard and George are playing.

We saw what the Clips are capable of defensively on Wednesday when they held Boston to just 39.4% shooting. A major reason for the excitement over the Leonard-George pairing is what the duo brings on the defensive end. But truthfully, LA was already a strong defensive team as they've now held six of their last seven opponent under 40% shooting including the last three. They are allowing 100.0 PPG on the nose here at home. But they've also failed to top 100 in regulation in B2B games. Something else that's under the radar is the fact Houston has held its last five opponents to an average of just 102.6 PPG. 10* Under Rockets/Clippers 

10* Under Rockets/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Two of the best teams from the West square off in the thin air of Denver on Wednesday night. The Rockets' resurgence is one of the big stories in the league right now as they have won and covered eight straight games. That after starting the year 0-6 ATS. Denver has won six of seven, their only loss coming in a game where they were 10-point home favorites over Atlanta. While both teams scored a ton in their last games, it won't be that easy this time around. Take the Under. 

Houston scored 132 pts in a win over Portland Monday. While they didn't shoot the lights out, James Harden finished w/ 36 points and Russell Westbrook had 28 plus a triple double. It was the Rockets' second straight game scoring at least 125. But prior to Monday, they'd gone Under in five straight games. The Under is 6-1 in all of their road games. Harden is the NBA's leading scorer at 39.2 PPG and has gone over 30 in eight straight. But he's probably due for an "off night" at some point. Denver is allowing opponents to shoot just 42.9% at home and Houston is 25-11 Under as an underdog the L3 seasons. 

The Nuggets are 9-3 Under in all of their games so far. Not only are they limiting the opposition's field goal percentage, they aren't shooting so well themselves. For the season, Denver is at 44.0%. They average 106.9 PPG. Don't look for them to come close to the 55% shooting we saw vs. Memphis or the 131 points scored in that game. What's impressive is the Nuggets holding half their opponents below 100 points. They are 3rd in the West in points allowed and 7th overall in defensive efficiency. Look for this game to be bit lower scoring than what's expected. 10* Under Rockets/Nuggets

10* Under Suns/Kings (10:05 ET): The Suns and Kings have been two of the best bets in the NBA this season. Given the respective struggles of the two franchises over the last decade, that's not something I anticipated writing. Phoenix enters at 9-3 vs. the number (best ATS record in the league) while Sacramento has covered every game in November (7-0 ATS) following an 0-5 ATS October. Something will have to give here. But it's the total I'm more interested in tonight. 

The fact that both teams have been playing short-handed makes their respective ATS success all the more surprising. The Suns are w/o last year's #1 overall DC DeAndre Ayton, who got hit w/ a 25-game suspension for failing a drug test. That suspension occurred pretty early in the season (Ayton played just ONE game), yet initially Phoenix showed no ill-effects. After seven games, the team was 5-2 SU and a perfect 7-0 ATS. They are now 7-5 SU/9-3 ATS. The one game Ayton played in was against these Kings and he scored 18 pts on 9 of 14 shooting. The team scored 124 points in a rout, but I don't suspect that will be happening again tonight. 

Also hurting the Suns here is the fact they played last night. They lost 99-85 at home to Boston in what was pretty easily their lowest scoring game of the year. That result snapped a 5-game Over streak as well. Now the Celtics are one of the league's top defensive teams. But surprisingly, Sacramento has kept its last three opponents all below 100 pts. All three games stayed Under. It must be mentioned that the Kings are playing w/o De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III, so it's going to be a struggle for them to score moving forward. Buddy Hield had a season-best 35 points w/ seven three-pointers made vs. Boston on Sunday, something I do not see him doing again here. 10* Under Suns/Kings

10* Under T'Woves/Wizards (8:05 ET): This is one of the highest totals we've seen so far this NBA season and it's not without merit. Washington is coming off a game in which it lost 140-133 (but still covered - I had them). Minnesota, who has gone Over in six of its last seven games, just hung 129 points on San Antonio in a win Wednesday night. This is definitely the highest O/U line either team has seen so far and it could end up challenging for the highest O/U line for any NBA game this season. Take the Under. 

This is already the second meeting of the year between these teams. Back on November 2nd, the T'wolves went to the Nation's capital and prevailed 131-109. That score is yet another reason this total is so high. Minnesota had 70 points at halftime and coasted to their largest margin of victory and highest scoring game all season. Washington didn't even shoot that well as they finished the game at 38.9% from the field. But my guess is the T'wolves are not going to be as deadly on the offensive end here compared to that first meeting. 

Note Washington had actually gone Under in three straight before the wild game in Boston Wednesday night. Coming in off four days rest, they shot 52.6% against the Celtics, which is pretty remarkable given the kind of defense Boston has played this year. The Wiz don't have the luxury of having that much rest coming into tonight. They've shot better than 50% in only two games all season. The remarkable thing about Minnesota's stretch of scoring is they aren't shooting the ball well at all this year! Especially at home where they are at 41.1% including an unsightly 25.6% from three-point range. 10* Under T'wolves/Wizards

10* Over Thunder/Pacers (7:05 ET): Personally, I feel that Oklahoma City has performed quite admirably in their first 10 games of the season. With both Russell Westbrook and Paul George departing via free agency, the Thunder were expected to take a massive hit in the standings this year. But so far they've gone 4-6 straight up, showing that they're going to be competitive. They only lost by two to Milwaukee on Sunday in a high-scoring game (121-119 final).

As per usual, Indiana was pegged to finish in the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff mix. The season did not start well as they opened w/ three consecutive losses. But since that time, the Pacers are 6-1 with the only loss coming by just two points. Similar to Oklahoma City, there have been plenty of high-scoring games involving Indiana recently. Their last game was a 109-102 win at Orlando, which isn't all that high-scoring, but it was a second straight Over and third in four games.

Oklahoma City has gone Over in three straight as their games are now averaging 212.8 PPG. Against Milwaukee, they had seven players in double figures. Indiana is getting similar balance as they had six players score 10 or more points at Orlando. That kind of balance is huge with Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner still out with injuries. Pacers' games are averaging 215.2 PPG this year. I think it's pretty clear that this number opened too low. A key to this one going Over is that OKC is giving up 112.3 PPG on the road, well up from what they allow at home. 10* Over Thunder/Pacers

10* Under Mavericks/Celtics (7:35 ET): Both teams scored 135+ points in their last game, so the expectation here will be for another high-scoring affair. However, I think it's important to note neither team is likely to shoot the ball as well as they did against Memphis and San Antonio, respectively. The other big story here is that the Celtics are w/o Gordon Hayward (probably for awhile) after he fractured his left hand Saturday night. While the team still did go on to score 135 pts vs. the Spurs, Hayward's absence will undoubtedly be felt on the offensive end as he was having a really good start to the campaign. Take the Under here.

Dallas blitzed Memphis Saturday night, winning 138-122 as 5.5-pt road favorites. It's important to note the Grizzlies are a terrible team and not close to what they once were defensively. For the Mavs, that win was a welcome effort after they'd dropped their previous game to New York, a contest where they were 10.5-point home favorites. They scored just 102 points there. While 4-0 SU on the road so far, I do not anticipate the Mavs continuing to shoot 51% from the floor away from home. Their two best shooting nights of the season so far came against Cleveland and Memphis, two bad teams, both on the road. Boston has held three of its last four opponents under 40% shooting. They are #6 in the league in defensive efficiency.

The Mavs have just as many games where they shot below 40% (2) as they do over 50% so far. Facing Boston on the road should certainly lead to their impressive offensive numbers taking a hit. Opponents are barely shooting 41% against the Celtics for the year. As for the Celtics, the Hayward injury obviously hurts big-time and I do not anticipate the same collective level of scoring we saw from Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart that we saw Saturday vs. San Antonio (trio combined for 65 pts). Saturday was just the 2nd time Boston shot better than 50% this year and you should expect Dallas to play better defense here than they did in Memphis (allowed 52% shooting). Boston is 3-0 Under this year after scoring 115+ pts in the last game. 10* Under Mavericks/Celtics

analysis soon

8* Over Raptors/Pelicans (8:05 ET): New Orleans is no stranger to high totals. When they faced the Rockets a few weeks ago, we took the Over at 238.5 and cashed by double digits. Their last game had a total of 239.5 and it too went Over (lost 135-125 to Brooklyn). All but one Pelicans' game this season has gone Over as oddsmakers struggle to make these numbers high enough. This one still isn't high enough. Take the Over.

While the Pelicans find themselves at 1-6 SU, Toronto has played pretty well in a 5-2 start. Remember Kawhi Leonard took off for LA, so it's supposed to be a big step back for the reigning NBA Champs. But I still see them finishing top five in the East pretty easily. The Raptors' only two losses so far were at Boston and Milwaukee. They had three days rest after losing to the Bucks and scored 124 pts in a win over Sacramento Wednesday. That game saw them shoot 55% from the field.

New Orleans is averaging 119.3 PPG, yet is still 1-6 SU. That should tell you all you need to know about the kind of defense they play, which is to say it's non-existent. Last year, they were tied for worst in points per game allowed (116.8) in the Western Conference, so they've actually regressed. Right now they are dead last, giving up 124.3 PPG. This is the rematch of the season opener in Toronto, won by the Raptors 130-122. While that game did go to OT, the Pelicans have twice allowed more points in regulation this season. Toronto just allowed Sacramento to make a franchise-record 20 three-pointers in its last game. 8* Over Raptors/Pelicans

8* Over Cavs/Wizards (7:05 ET): Continuing a theme we saw throughout last year, Cleveland has played terrible defense its last two games, both of which resulted in losses at home. They allowed Dallas to shoot 53.2% from the field while Boston was at 56.5%. They allowed a combined 250 points in those two losses. But like their opponents tonight, the Cavs are in store for some better shooting of their own. They've shot below 42% each of the L3 games and that's unlikely to continue. Take the Over here. 

Washington just shot 38.9% from the floor in its 121-106 loss at Indiana Wednesday night. It was the Wizards' second time finishing w/ that exact percentage in their L3 games. Here at home, you'd expect improved shooting. Remember - there was a home game earlier this year where the Wizards scored 158 points in regulation and shot 63.2%! But what you shouldn't ever expect from this team is good defense. They've lost four of five and given up at least 121 pts in all four losses. That game where they scored 158 in regulation was actually a LOSS as they gave up 159! Right now, only four teams are allowing a higher PPG average than the Wiz.

When the dust of this season starts to settle, you'll find these teams likely located at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. The Cavs are in the second year of a massive rebuild after LeBron James left them a second time. The Wizards will likely be w/o John Wall the entire season due to an ACL tear. On the bright side, the Cavs did have six players in double figures against Boston. Bradley Beal has picked up the scoring slack for Washington w/ three 30+ pt games so far. But the teams currently sit at 24th and 27th in defensive efficiency and this figures to turn into a track meet. 8* Over Cavs/Wizards

10* Under Celtics/Hornets (8:05 ET): Boston has won five straight and has the best win percentage in the Eastern Conference. I don't think they've been nearly as impressive as Milwaukee has, but they did beat the Bucks once (coming back from 19 down). Of course, it also helps to have faced the Knicks twice. The Celtics' last two victories haven't been all that impressive as they were by a combined eight points over New York & Cleveland. We faded the C's in Cleveland Tuesday and came away w/ a push. Here it's a play on the Under. They won't be matching the hot shooting from that Cleveland game. 

While Boston was shooting 56.5% from the field in Cleveland, Charlotte got to go to the free throw line 42 times in what ended up being a 122-120 OT win over Indiana. Neither team is going to come close to matching those numbers from the respective last games. The Celtics are still only shooting 44% overall even after the win in Cleveland. Gordon Hayward scored 39 points vs. the Cavs, going a ridiculous 16 of 16 on 2-pt attempts. Again, that's not going to happen here. The Hornets average 23 FT attempts per game, so getting to the charity stripe 42 times like they did vs. Indiana also seems unlikely to repeat itself.

The huge number of free throw attempts was almost solely responsible for the Hornets beating the Pacers Tuesday. Indiana got only SEVEN FT attempts the entire game! Despite the massive edge at FT line, Charlotte still almost lost as it allowed the Pacers to shoot 54.3%. I'd look for better defense here. Note the game prior, which the Hornets also won, was a 93-87 final against Golden State. Winners of three in a row, the Hornets have alternated going Over and then Under all season. All four games w/ Boston went Over LY, but it's a new season and this should be a low-scoring game. The Celtics hold teams to 104.7 PPG, which is 2nd fewest in the Eastern Conference. 10* Under Celtics/Hornets

10* Under Bucks/Clippers (10:05 ET): Two hot teams meet Wednesday night on ESPN in what could very well be a Finals preview. The Bucks have won three straight and are coming off their highest scoring effort of the year, a 134-106 win in Minnesota Monday night. The Clippers have won two straight, the most recent being a 105-94 victory over Utah. Unfortunately, a bit of the luster of this matchup has been lost w/ LA deciding to sit Kawhi Leonard (front end of a B2B). That's obviously going to impact their ability to score. Take the Under.

The Bucks have scored 115 or more points in every game but one, so they've picked up right where they left off offensively last season. They were #3 in offensive efficiency a year ago, the first season under Mike Budenholzer, and have jumped to #1 so far this season. But, let us not forget that this team was also #1 in defensive efficiency last year. They've slipped some (down to #8) this year, but have also been a lot better recently, giving up an average of just over 100 PPG the L3 contests. Teams are shooting just over 40% for the year against the Bucks. They held Minnesota to 35.9% from the field.

Obviously, defending the Clippers w/o Kawhi will be a lot easier. The Clippers' last four games have all gone Under anyway and they didn't shoot particularly well w/ Leonard in the lineup against either the Spurs or Jazz. Note the only other time Leonard rested this season, the Clips could manage only 96 points in a loss to the Jazz. That was easily a season-low in points scored. Leonard leads the team in points, rebounds, assists and steals, so it goes w/o saying that he'll be missed. 10* Under Bucks/Clippers 

10* Under Mavericks/Cavs (7:35 ET): Dallas' last game would not have gone Over w/o OT as it was 103-103 at the end of regulation (O/U line: 217). That was also a brutal loss for anyone that took the Mavs +2 (I did) as they led outright most of the game, only to end up losing by nine. PG Luka Doncic got banged up near the end of the game, which definitely contributed to the team's poor showing in overtime. Doncic is listed as probable for tonight, but it's something worth monitoring. I don't see Dallas continuing to shoot as well on the road regardless as they've made 48.6% of their FG attempts in two games, both wins. Take the Under here. 

Cleveland is 2-0 at home so far, having beaten Indiana and Chicago. Similar to Dallas on the road, I don't see the young Cavaliers being able to maintain their current shooting at home, which is 51.3% from the field, well above what they are shooting on the road (where they are 0-3). The Cavs were very bad defensively a season ago, ranking dead last in efficiency. But they seem to be improved under new HC John Beilein as they've allowed 102 pts or less in three of five games so far and they're up to a much more respectable 15th in defensive efficiency. 

Unfortunately for the Cavs, they are averaging only 103.8 PPG overall, which is near the bottom of the league. Only six teams average a fewer number of points per game. Rookie Darius Garland was 0 for 10 from the field against Indiana on Friday, a game the Cavs lost by only six points. He'll shoot better than that tonight (obviously), but as I said when I played the Under in that game vs. Indiana, early season numbers from Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are due to decline. Both of these teams shoot the ball around 44% for the year, but the Mavs are way higher on the road while the Cavs are way higher here at home. Those road/home percentages are due to regress back to the mean. 10* Under Mavericks/Cavs