8* Over Warriors/Celtics (9:00 ET): This is the lowest O/U line of the series yet and furthermore it’s also the lowest O/U line for any Warriors’ game this postseason. Furthermore, there were only five regular season games involving the Dubs with an O/U line of 210.5 or lower. Three of those five went Over. Game 5 saw the teams combine to shoot a horrendous 20 of 72 from three-point range (27%) while Golden State going an uncharacteristic 9 for 40 and Steph Curry going 0 for 9. The Celtics also missed 10 free throws and shot just 41.3% overall from the field. Yet there were still 198 total points scored. 

You have to presume that we’re going to see better shooting tonight. Therefore, Over looks like the smart play when it comes to the total. Golden State, Curry especially, will be better from three-point range, for sure. Game 5 was the first time in Curry’s career that he failed to make a single three in a playoff game. Since coming into the league, he’s shot 46% from beyond the arc and averaged 4.4 makes per game, coming off a game where he failed to make a three. The last time he failed to make three threes in a game was Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals. He responded by hitting six in the 1Q of Game 1 in this series. 

It wasn’t just Curry. The four Warriors’ starters not named “Klay Thompson” went a combined 0 for 19 from behind the arc in Game 5. That will not happen again. Similarly, I can’t see Boston being held under 100 points for a third consecutive contest. That’s happened only once to them all season and it was back in November. The last three times they’ve been off B2B losses, they’ve averaged 114.3 PPG. Here at home in Game 3, they scored 116. Golden State isn’t nearly as stout defensively on the road as they are at home. They give up six more points per game on the road compared to the Chase Center. 8* Over Warriors/Celtics

10* Under Warriors/Celtics (9:00 ET): As the series moves to Beantown, let’s stick with the Under (which was a winner for me in Game 2). As I expected, the Celtics could not match their level of three-point shooting from Game 1 (when they went 21 of 41 - 51%) as they dropped off, but only down to 40.5% (as they were 15 of 37). The key was they were only 15 of 43 on two-point attempts, which is only 34.8% (very bad). Outside of Jayson Tatum (who was the only Celtic NOT to shoot well in Game 1), the rest of the team went a combined 22 of 61 from the field and 9 of 28 from three-point range. 

Overall though, three-point shooting has been pretty good (from both teams) in the first two games. Golden State is north of 40 percent while Boston is north of 45 percent. I expect those percentages to drop. We are talking about arguably the two best defensive teams from the regular season. Boston was #1 in points per game allowed (GSW #3). Golden State was #1 in defensive efficiency (Bos #2). Here in the playoffs, the Celtics have been even stingier (101.6 PPG allowed) and off a loss they’ve allowed more than 102 just once in six tries. For the year, the Celtics are allowing just 101.7 PPG off a SU loss.

The teams are now a combined 22-6 Under when playing on exactly two days rest, which (like Game 2) is the situation again here. Consider that even with 30 made threes in Game 2 (both teams were 15 of 37) and a 61 total pts in the 1Q, the teams still ended up combining for only 195 points in Game 2. We may very well see more than that here in Game 3. But still not enough to send this one Over. The Warriors had 33 points off turnovers in the win Sunday and that’s simply not going to happen again. Off a loss, Boston has decreased its number of turnovers every time in the playoffs. 10* Under Warriors/Celtics

10* Under Celtics/Warriors (8:05 ET): Game 1 saw a dramatic turn of events in the fourth quarter where Boston outscored Golden State 40-16, turning a 12-point deficit into a 12-point win. The Celtics finished the game north of 50% from the field and would have been even better if not for an awful display from Jayson Tatum (who was 3 for 17). The team also shot a blistering 51.2% from three-point range (21 of 41), something I don’t think we’ll see again, at least not in Game 2. 

It was the Warriors that got off to the hot START in Game 1, specifically Steph Curry, who was 6 for 8 from three-point range in the first quarter alone! Again, don’t think we’ll see a repeat of that. Curry finished the game with 34 points, above his projection, but considering he had 21 points after 1Q, I think it’s fair to say the Celtics’ defense was able to slow him down. I’d also be a bit surprised if the Warriors hit 19 threes again, as a team, like they did in Game 1. I think you can all tell where I’m going with this pick. 

These were the two top teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Boston also led in scoring defense. The Celtics have given up fewer points per game in the playoffs (101.4) while the Warriors typically do a much better job defending at home (103.1 PPG allowed) vs. on the road (109.0). Even if Tatum improves (he likely will), the Celtics won’t be getting a combined 47 points again from Al Horford and Derrick White. Boston is 11-3 Under this season playing on exactly two days rest while Golden State is 9-3 Under in the same situation. 10* Under Celtics/Warriors

10* Under Celtics/Heat (8:30 ET): Historically, Game 7’s tend to go Under. Since 2003, the Under has hit in nearly 65% of all Game 7s. Many were not expecting the Eastern Conference Finals to reach a Game 7. Not after the Celtics bludgeoned the Heat in Games 4 and 5 (both of those stayed Under), then were heading back home for Game 6. But Miami had other ideas, pulling the upset Friday, 111-103 as an eight-point underdog. This will be, predictably, the lowest O/U for any game of the series. I’m still going Under. 

Boston led the league in scoring defense during the regular season, giving up just 104.1 points per game. They’ve bested that average here in the postseason, allowing only 101.3, including just 96.8 in the last five games. They held Miami to just 82 and 80 points in Games 4 and 5 with the Heat starters combining to score a paltry 60 points (total!) in those two games. There was no way the Heat weren’t going to improve their shooting in Game 6 and Jimmy Butler was a man on a mission, scoring 47 points himself. I don’t see that happening again though. Nor do I see a combined 56 free throws being attempted in Game 7. That’s how many were attempted in Game 6 with 52 being made. Refs tend to “swallow their whistles” in Game 7s. 

Miami is also a defensive force, giving up only 100.4 PPG in the playoffs. Boston has hit its season average (111 PPG) only once in this series. This series has been higher-scoring than anticipated, but on Sunday night we’re going to get a real slugfest. Expect fewer possessions, more defensive intensity and less fouls called. 10* Under Celtics/Heat

10* Under Heat/Celtics (8:30 ET): I thought for sure that I had the Under cashed in Game 3 of this series. With 48 seconds remaining, the Heat were up 100-94. The total was 208.5. Stranger things have certainly happened, but you don’t normally see 15+ points scored over the final 48 seconds. Well, Game 3 saw 18 as there were a couple technical fouls plus Boston kept making “garbage time” threes. The Over is now 3-0 in this series, which is not what most were expecting and going back to 2020, the teams are 8-0-1 Over when facing each other in the Conference Finals. Don’t you think it’s time for an Under? 

There’s a good chance Miami enters Game 4 shorthanded as six players (Lowry, Tucker, Herro, Strus, Vincent and Butler) are all listed as questionable. Though they won despite him leaving Game 3 early, Butler not playing would be significant as he’s been the unquestioned “go to guy” for the Heat at the offensive end in these playoffs. Butler is averaging nearly 30 PPG in the postseason. Bam Adebayo scored 31 in Game 3. Though he should again rack up some good stats, especially if multiple teammates are out, Adebayo isn’t likely to match his Game 3 scoring output as he scored only 16 in the first two games combined. 

I can’t see Jaylen Brown scoring 40 again for the Celtics either. His previous playoff high was 30. A big key in this series is that we’ve seen high-scoring first halves. The team with the lead at the half (Boston twice) has scored at least 62 points. I don’t anticipate that being the case in Game 4 as these are two of the best defensive teams in the league and neither allows more than 53.2 per game in the 1H for the year. So look for the scoring to (finally) slow down as Boston is 12-6 Under this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. 10* Under Heat/Celtics

10* Under Heat/Celtics (8:30 ET): The expectation was that the Eastern Conference Finals would be pretty low-scoring. After all, Boston led the league in scoring defense (104.5 PPG) during the regular season and has been even stingier in the playoffs (103.1 PPG allowed). Not to be overlooked is the fact the Under was 8-2-1 in Miami playoff games in Rounds 1 and 2 with them turning in the second best defensive efficiency rating during that time. The Heat have allowed an average of just 100.5 PPG in the postseason. That’s even after the first two games saw way more points scored than what was expected. 

With these two teams combining to go 14-0 Over in their L14 Conference Finals games, I think that it’s time to go “the other way” here in Game 3. Boston shot 51% in Game 2 and made 20 threes, numbers they probably can’t hope to match tonight. For a frame of reference, the Celtics shot 45.6% in Game 1 and made only 11 threes. Save for the third quarter of Game 1, they really have looked like the better team in this series. That dubious third quarter is the only quarter in the two games where the Celtics were outscored. (Teams were even in the third and fourth in Game 2). I just don’t think we’re going to see the same amount of scoring from Boston, especially in the first half, tonight. 

Miami shot just 29.4% from three-point range in the last game. They’ll likely improve from that, but not by enough to affect the total. I expect this game to be played at a slower pace. The Celtics have allowed 103 points or fewer in six of their last nine games. The Heat have allowed 103 or less in 7 of their last 10 games. I think for tonight, the winning team may only need 100. Miami has not allowed 100+ points in three straight games during these playoffs. This is the highest O/U line of the series. 10* Under Heat/Celtics

10* Under Mavs/Warriors (9:00 ET): Dallas stunned the basketball world with its 33-point Game 7 victory at Phoenix Sunday night. They allowed just 27 first half points and 50 through three quarters! So while this team has been notably better at home on the defensive end, it would be foolish to discount what they can do on the road. Golden State is also a team that’s underrated defensively. They allow only 103.1 PPG at home (2nd lowest, only trailing Dallas) and also finished the regular season #1 in defensive efficiency. Something else that must be considered when handicapping this series is that Dallas plays at an incredibly slow pace (last in tempo during the regular season). I’m on the Under in Game 1. 

Over its last five games vs. Memphis, the Warriors only averaged 109.8 points and that was with the 142-point explosion in Game 3. Dallas will easily be the best defensive team that the Warriors have faced this postseason as the Nuggets and Grizzlies ended up 15th and 12th in scoring defense. The Mavs allowed just 96.2 PPG the L5 games and 101.9 for the entire playoffs. This despite facing the team that tied for the regular season lead in offensive efficiency (Utah) and a top five scoring offense (Phoenix). Back to tempo, Dallas is playing even slower than they did in the regular season. Obviously, they’re going to look to slow these games vs. the Warriors to a “snail’s pace.”

While I expect the Dallas defense to shine tonight, do not look for the team to shoot 56.8% from the field again as it did in Game 7 vs. Phoenix. In three of its last four home games, Golden State has allowed fewer than 100 points. Luka Doncic is coming off a monster series (32.6 PPG), but I do not expect him to find that same kind of success here vs. the Warriors. Two of the four regular season matchups between these teams were low-scoring (208 or less pts scored) while the other two were high-scoring (228+). I expect something along the lines of the former. 10* Under Mavs/Warriors

10* Under Mavs/Suns (8:00 ET): I hit the Over in Game 1, but this is a series that has seen the Under take over - cashing each of the last four games. Two of those four games I’ve hit the Under, three of the games saw fewer than 200 total points scored. This will be the lowest O/U line of the series in Game 7, not surprising based on the trajectory of the series as well as the well-known trend about betting totals in Game 7’s of the NBA Playoffs. Since ‘03, Game 7 Unders have hit 63% of the time, helped by a typically slower tempo and the referees “swallowing their whistles.” I’m following the historical trend on this one. 

Phoenix is hoping another trend plays out in this Game 7. Home teams have performed very well historically in Game 7s, going 109-33 straight up, including 9-1 when favored by six or more (as the Suns are right now, as of press time). Plus, the home team has gone 6-0 straight up and against the spread in this series so far. But it is difficult to look past the fact that the Suns had the lowest Round 1 net efficiency rating of any team that advanced and they are only outscoring Dallas by less than a point per game since Game 3. So I’ve got no interest in laying the points here. Especially since the Suns’ shooting has come back “down to Earth” (just 39.7% in Game 6). 

The Suns are 12-3 Under playing with exactly two days of rest this season. They are also 12-4 Under off a SU loss as a favorite, 10-2 Under off a double digit loss and 8-1 Under after being held below 100 points the previous game. So there’s even more trends. Dallas may not be as stout defensively on the road as they are at home, but they also won’t make 16 threes again like they did in Game 6. The Mavs not only played at the slowest pace in the league during the regular season; they’ve also played at the slowest pace in the playoffs, of any team that advanced to the second round. 10* Under Mavs/Suns

10* Under Grizzlies/Warriors (10:00 ET): Well, Game 5 DID go Over (as I predicted), just not in the manner that I thought it might. My thought was that it would be Golden State responding from a Game 4 performance where it shot just 40% overall and 24.3% from three-point range. Memphis was also due for a little three-point improvement itself (they shot 25.7% in Game 4). What actually happened though was the Grizzlies exploding for 134 points in a one-sided beatdown! Thus the series heads back to Golden State, with the Grizz still trailing three games to two. The Warriors are big favorites to close things out tonight at home, but I think the better play here is the Under. 

For the record, the Warriors DID improve their shooting in Game 5. They made five more threes than they did in Game 4, but wound up attempting their fewest number of shots in any game in the series (80) and had just 13 FT attempts (made 9). Other than their own offensive explosion (142 points) in Game 3, the Dubs have now been held to 101 pts or less in three of the last four games. So Memphis has done an excellent job defensively in this series. We’ve also yet to see B2B Overs. 

I don’t see the Grizzlies making 43.9% from behind the arc again as they did in Game 5. Of course, they are still without Ja Morant.  Even though the team is 21-6 SU when Morant sits this season, that doesn’t necessarily mean we should expect big points from them here. They won’t be at home tonight as they were in Game 5. Golden State is allowing just 103.2 PPG at home, second fewest in the league. Memphis had seven players finish in double figures Weds night, but none had more than 21. The Under is 4-1 the last five times the Warriors have been off a loss. With this being the lowest O/U of the series, the Over will be tempting to some. But not me. 10* Under Grizzlies/Warriors

10* Under Heat/76ers (7:05 ET): It’s do or die tonight for the 76ers, who are facing elimination after being blown out of the water Tuesday in Miami. They lost 120-85, shooting only 36.5% overall and 28.1% from three-point range. I made a terrible call taking the Sixers plus the points in that game, but will look to atone for it here by playing the Under. Yes, you should obviously expect Philadelphia to shoot better than it did in Game 5. But the road team has shot poorly in all five games in this series, so look for Miami to regress from its 53.6% shooting (13 of 33 from three) in the last game. 

In Games 3 and 4 here in Philadelphia, the Heat went a combined 14 of 65 from three-point range. That’s 21.5%. One of the games saw them finish with only 79 points as a team. Other than Jimmy Butler, no Miami player has been a factor offensively here in the city of Brotherly Love. Butler’s teammates combined to go just 25 of 62 (40%) in Game 4. In Game 3, they totaled only 46 points! Miami will be without Kyle Lowry again tonight. 

Miami’s defense, as expected, has been outstanding in this series. For the playoffs, the Heat are allowing just 98.2 PPG and the Under is 7-2. They’ve held the Sixers below 100 points in three of the five games, including twice since Joel Embiid has returned. Aside from Game 4, James Harden has been subpar, scoring 20 pts or less in the other four games. Philly has now been held below 100 in four of its last seven games. While it’s never happened in consecutive games, tonight may break that pattern. 10* Under Heat/76ers

10* Over Warriors/Grizzlies (9:30 ET): So Grizzlies’ star point guard Ja Morant has a bone bruise and a playoff return is looking unlikely. That’s basically a “death knell” for a Memphis team already facing elimination Weds night. Without Morant, the Grizz turned in a “game” effort in Game 4 @ Golden State, but came up three points shy (101-98) and are now facing a 3-1 series deficit. The Warriors were probably already the better team (been favored in every game) even with a healthy Morant available. Certainly, the expectation will be for the Dubs to close things out here. But I think the better play is the Over.

You may recall that I last played the Over in this series back in Game 1. It hit rather easily, going Over despite the number being bet up several points. Oddsmakers set the O/U line way too low for that series opener and the public made them pay. But they evidently learned their lesson as the O/U line opened 227.5 for Game 2. Two of the last three games have stayed Under, including Game 4 (when I had the Under). I didn’t think the oddsmakers adjusted enough for Morant’s absence in Game 4, but now it seems as if we’ve got an overcorrection as this will be the lowest O/U for any game in the series. 

The last game stayed way Under (by 23 points) as both teams struggled from three-point range. It was a combined 18 of 72 (25%). From the start, it was obvious the game was going to stay Under. Only 79 total points were scored in the 1H and 131 through three quarters. Given Golden State shot 63.1% overall in the previous game and 53% from three-point range, it was obvious they would regress Monday, but along those same lines, we should see vast improvement for Game 5. Memphis is due to shoot the ball better as well as I don’t expect them to go down without a fight, at home. 10* Over Warriors/Grizzlies

8* Under Grizzlies/Warriors (10:00 ET): Well this series has certainly taken a nasty turn, with hard fouls and injuries defining the last two games. In Game 2, it was the Grizzlies’ Dillon Brooks’ hard foul on the Warriors’ Gary Payton II (out indefinitely) taking two players out of the Game 3 proceedings (Brooks was suspended). Brooks will return for Game 4, but unfortunately for Memphis, Ja Morant is now questionable after the Warriors’ Jordan Poole appeared to grab his knee, re-injuring it. Whether or not Morant ends up playing on Monday, I like the Under here.

Certainly, Golden State will not be replicating its Game 3 shooting, which had them at a blistering 63.1% overall and 53.1% from three-point range. If you recall from my Game 3 analysis, I called for the Warriors to regain their shooting touch after they shot a poor 42.1% overall in the Game 2 loss, which included 7 of 38 from three, a franchise record for futility. But even I, as someone holding a ticket on the Dubs minus the points in Game 3, did not expect what we ended up getting. The team finished with 142 points and made 17 threes. Their overall and “true” shooting percentage for the game were both the second highest in NBA Playoff history.

According to his head coach Taylor Jenkins, there’s “probably a really good chance” that Morant doesn’t play in Game 4. That would obviously be a significant loss for Memphis offensively. Morant was Top 10 in points per game in the regular season and was also leading the league in assists per game here in the playoffs. Even if he does somehow manage to play, Morant clearly will not be the same. With the Grizzlies likely without their best player (and one of the top scorers in the league) and the Warriors’ shooting certain to regress, I think the Under is a pretty easy call here in Game 4. These were two of the top four teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season (GSW #1) and the Dubs allow only 103.4 PPG at home.  8* Under Grizzlies/Warriors

10* Over Celtics/Bucks (7:30 ET): My NBA Playoff record has been pretty good thus far, but admittedly it would be even better if not for some stubbornness when it comes to choosing the Over in this particular series. It’s been flawed logic (to this point) waiting for the “roulette wheel to come up red” as all seven Bucks’ games this postseason have stayed Under. Oddsmakers have been scrambling to adjust as we’ve gone from a closing O/U line of 230.5 for Game 1 of the first round series (vs. Chicago) to a closing O/U line of 212 for the last game of this series. With every game, the O/U line has dropped. 

 My thought process, flawed as it has been, is that we’re getting value with the O/U line decreasing so much. As a reminder, Milwaukee led the Eastern Conference in scoring (115.5 PPG) during the regular season. But it has been their incredible DEFENSIVE efficiency rating (96.1) that has carried them throughout the playoffs. Consider that the #2 team (Miami) has a postseason defensive efficiency rating of 103.0. Boston isn’t too shabby defensively in its own right, ranking third in postseason defensive efficiency rating and second in the regular season. But, interestingly enough, this is the first time in the series we’ve seen a clear influx of early money coming in on the Over. 

That’s easy to understand. Whereas Boston shot horribly in Game 1 (33.3% overall) and Milwaukee shot horribly in Game 2 (3 of 18 from three-point range), BOTH teams were bad from the floor in Game 3. The Celtics were back down to 36.8% overall while the Bucks weren’t much better (at 40.4%). The teams combined to shoot 18 of 67 (26.8%) from behind the arc. I expect improvement across the board in the shooting department - from both teams - here in Game 4. Scoring has jumped in every game, from 190 in Game 1 to 195 in Game 2 to 204 in Game 3. Another jump comes here and we FINALLY cash that elusive Over ticket on Milwaukee. 10* Over Celtics/Bucks

10* Under Suns/Mavericks (3:30 ET): Phoenix probably cannot continue to shoot as well from three-point range as they have so far in this series (45.6%), especially considering they are up against a Dallas team that only allows 101.3 PPG at home this season. Sure enough, the Mavs held the Suns to only 94 points in Game 3, picking up their first win of the series. I’m expecting another strong effort from the home team at the defensive end of the floor today, considering the most points they’ve allowed in any of their four home playoff games so far is 104.

Yet the Mavs have scored 103 or less themselves in more than half of their own postseason games. It’s just 210.2 total PPG scored in Mavs’ playoff games. They held Utah, who was tied for the most efficient offense in the regular season, below 100 PPG. Phoenix shot the lights out in Games 1 & 2 (particularly Gm 2), but then here in Dallas, the Mavs returned to their stingy ways. The Suns were still 13 of 28 from three-point range, but made far less shots overall compared to the first two games. 

I should also point out how, in the regular season, Dallas played at the slowest tempo in the league. Game 3 was Phoenix’s lowest-scoring effort of the season, but something else that deserves to be pointed out is how they are 7-1 Under this season after being held below 100 points in the previous game. It’s not just three-point regression that should be in store for the Suns. They are shooting 52.6% overall in the playoffs, up from 48.8% for the season. The Under is 30-14 in all Dallas’ home games this season. 10* Under Suns/Mavericks

10* Over Celtics/Bucks (3:30 ET): This series heads back to Milwaukee with the teams tied 1-1. Both picked up their respective wins in fairly dominant fashion. The Bucks rolled in Game 1, 101-89, snapping a 9-game ATS losing streak to the Celtics. As expected both teams shot better overall in Game 2 (46.6% for Milwaukee, 47.5% for Boston), but the Bucks were doomed by going 3 of 18 from three-point range (16.7%). Boston made more threes (20) than Milwaukee even attempted and the incredible +51 point edge the Celtics enjoyed from beyond the arc essentially guaranteed victory. The final score was 109-86.

The Under is now 7-0 in Milwaukee playoff games. Oddsmakers continue to drop the total, which was 230.5 for Game 1 of their first round series (vs. Chicago), if you can believe that. We’re now down to 212.5 (as of press time). Barring some kind of massive wave of Over money on this game (which I do not anticipate), this will be the eighth straight Bucks’ game where the O/U line is lower than the previous one. Considering they were the highest scoring team in the Eastern Conference during the regular season, I feel the Over is now inevitable. I know I’ve been saying that for awhile now, but this is poised to be the lowest O/U line for any Bucks’ game since before X-Mas!

Bucks’ games still average 225.6 points this season, even with the run of postseason Unders. Celtics’ games average 215.9, so this number is below that. I know both teams are capable of playing great defense, but there is simply no way Milwaukee isn’t going to see a dramatic increase in three-point shooting from Game 2, similar to what we saw with Boston in Game 2 after they shot a woeful 33.3% overall in Game 1. The Celtics have made 38 three-pointers in the first two games. The teams will have had three days off between games when they take the court Saturday. Boston games have averaged 226 PPG in that situation this year while Milwaukee games have averaged 221.1. 10* Over Celtics/Bucks

8* Over 76ers/Heat (7:35 ET):  Joel Embiid remains out for Philadelphia, but the Sixers led Game 1 at the half and seemed to be en route to at least a cover. That was until things went awry midway through the third quarter and Miami took control defensively, holding the Sixers to just 31 points over the final 20 minutes. James Harden, who will obviously need to step it up offensively with Embiid out, scored just 16 points on 5 of 13 shooting in Game 1. You’ve got to figure he’ll do better tonight. Plus, he has help with Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, the latter of whom went for 27 points on Tuesday night. I’m taking the points here.

Philly shot a dreadful 17.6% from three-point range in Game 1, going just 6 of 34. That was especially bad, considering Miami (who is one of the league’s better 3-pt shooting teams) made only 9 of 36 from behind the arc. Both teams figure to improve from distance tonight as they shoot 36.5% and 37.6% from behind the arc, respectively. Miami was in fact the league’s best three-point shooting team, percentage-wise in the regular season. Philadelphia was seventh. Going a combined 15 of 70 from deep is highly uncharacteristic for these two teams. 

For the Heat, who are still missing Kyle Lowry, I expect Jimmy Butler to play better than he did in Game 1 where he finished with only 15 points on 5 of 16 shooting. He typically follows a subpar game with a good one. Tyler Herro stepped in Game 1 for Miami, outscoring Philly’s bench by himself. With Lowry still out, Herro figures to continue to put up nice numbers. Speaking of the Philly bench, they’ve got to be better than 1 of 12 from three-point range. Yes, six straight Heat games have gone Under, but this looks to be the fourth one in a row where the oddsmakers have dropped the total. Given the likelihood of improved shooting (from both sides) in this game, the value is on the Over. 8* Over 76ers/Heat

10* Over Bucks/Celtics (7:00 ET): Think we’ll see better shooting here than we did in Game 1? Boston was a paltry 33.3% from the field in their series opening loss, scoring just 89 points despite making 18 threes. Their three-point shooting was actually quite decent, 36% to be exact, but somehow (at home) the C’s were 10 of 34 inside the arc on Sunday. That’s truly incredible. I know that Milwaukee has really stepped it up defensively in the postseason, but there’s just no way we don’t get improved shooting (and more points) from the home team in Game 2. The Bucks only shot 41.1% overall in Game 1 and they should improve in that regard as well tonight.

All six Bucks’ playoff games have now gone Under. Oddsmakers are chasing as Game 1 of the Bucks-Bulls’ first round series had a closing total of 230.5. Now the O/U line for this game opened 15.5 points lower. Milwaukee was the highest scoring team in the Eastern Conference during the regular season, which is something else to consider. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a triple double in Game 1 (24-13-12) while Jrue Holiday stepped it up with 25 points and nine rebounds. Even without Khris Middleton, I expect the Bucks to score more than they did in Game 1. Especially if Boston is w/o Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart (questionable).

On the Celtics side, you’ve got to expect Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum will improve upon their collective 10 of 31 shooting from Game 1. For the season, that duo combined to average 48.2 PPG. The theme of this play is very much “improvement,” in case you couldn’t tell. Boston averaged 113.5 PPG in Round 1. Milwaukee scored at least 110 in each of its last four first round games. I’ll close by repeating something I said in the Game 1 analysis: the four regular season meetings between these teams all saw at least 220 total points scored. 10* Over Bucks/Celtics

10* Over Mavs/Suns (10:00 ET): The Mavs-Jazz series was pretty low-scoring with the two teams combining for just 203.7 points per game. But now Luka Doncic is ready to play a full series for the Mavs and they will be facing a Phoenix team that was top five in both scoring and offensive efficiency during the regular season. For the Suns, Devin Booker returned earlier than expected and they were able to close out the Pelicans in Game 6, scoring a series high 115 points. Only one time in the first round did the Suns fail to score 110. Their season average at home is 115.2 and if they hit that tonight, this looks like an easy Over. 

Now Dallas did just do a great job defensively against Utah, who also was one of the top offensive teams in the regular season. But the Suns aren’t as inept as the Jazz. They’ve got Chris Paul, who had a monster first round with 22.3 points and 11.3 assists per game. Note that in the close out game vs. New Orleans, Booker scored only 13 points and came off the bench. He’s now had several days off to further get over his hamstring issue and will almost certainly give the team more than he did in that last game. The Suns are also 20-8 Over following a SU win. 

Look for Dallas to attempt a lot of threes in this series as they had the highest 3pt rate in the first round and connected at 37%. Doncic, the NBA’s third leading scorer, played in only one of the three regular season meetings vs. Phoenix (Mavs lost all of them). That one time he played, the Mavs were up nine in the 4Q and that was with Doncic shooting just 9 of 23 for the game. All three regular season meetings also took place before the Mavs traded for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. While he had a relatively poor first round series, Dinwiddie can easily exceed his 15.3 PPG average vs. Utah here. That would mean Jalen Brunson would not have to match his 27.8 PPG 1st round average. Bottom line there’s a lot of scoring options for both teams. 10* Over Mavs/Suns

8* Over Warriors/Grizzlies (3:30 ET): Memphis’ series vs. Minnesota was lower scoring than anticipated with four of the six games going Under. But there was still an average of 223.9 points per game scored between the two teams. Quite frankly, I thought the Grizzlies were a bit fortunate to advance - at least in six games - as they trailed by double digits (in the fourth quarter!) in three of their four wins. Now they are set to face a Golden State team that is looking like it should be considered the favorite to come out of the West. The Warriors averaged 118 PPG in eliminating the Nuggets in five games. 

I like Game 1 of this series to go Over the total. These were the two highest scoring teams in the first round, combining to average 232.7 PPG. Golden State shot 51.5% overall from the field and 42.2% from three-point range. I think the fact Memphis gave up only 109 PPG to Minnesota was a bit fortunate as the T’wolves would constantly fall apart late. Over the L5 games of the series, the T’wolves would average less than 21 PPG in the 4Q. The Warriors simply will not melt down like that. Go ahead and throw out that 28-point loss the Dubs had here in Memphis back in March. Curry, Thompson and Green all didn’t play. With its “death lineup” now in full force, Golden State is as strong as it has been all year. 

No player has hit more threes in the playoffs so far than has Memphis’ Desmond Bane (27). While Golden State has an excellent defensive efficiency rating, it should be pointed out that they allowed 113 and 126 points in the two road games vs. Denver. Only Game 5 of that series stayed Under. This would be the lowest total for either team so far in the playoffs. The Over is 11-1 in Memphis’ last 12 playoff games as an underdog. We’re going to see a lot of three-point attempts in this series. Golden State was third in 3PA during the regular seasons while Memphis averaged 34.5 3PA per game vs. the Warriors in the four reg season matchups. 8* Over Warriors/Grizzlies

10* Over Bucks/Celtics (1:00 ET): This series pits the reigning NBA Champs (Milwaukee) against the team I feel is the favorite to come out of the East this year (Boston). By virtue of finishing second in the conference standings, the Celtics have the home court advantage. They made quick work of Brooklyn in Round 1, shockingly sweeping the Nets in what was expected to be a competitive series. As for the Bucks, they were widely expected to eliminate the Bulls and did so in five games. The two teams are obviously now anticipating a much more competitive series here in the conference semifinals. 

All five games in the Bucks-Bulls series stayed Under the total. The series started with a Game 1 total of 230.5 and steadily declined down to 217.5 for Game 5. Milwaukee held Chicago to 95.2 PPG on 40.4% shooting, but they won’t be able to do that against Boston, who averaged 113.5 PPG on 49.1% shooting in the first round. The Bucks averaged 109.8 PPG on 47.1% shooting. That PPG average was below what they averaged for the season (115.2), which led the Eastern Conference. This is going to be a higher scoring series.

These teams met four times in the regular season. All four games saw at least 220 total points scored. The last two meetings had O/U lines of 231.5 and 227.5. Yes, scoring does go down in the playoffs, but I think we’re getting a solid value on the Game 1 total. Only one of the four Celtics-Nets games had less than 221 total points scored. Milwaukee scored 110 or more in each of the last four games vs. Chicago. I think that it’s quite reasonable to expect both teams to score 110 in this game. They combine to average 227 PPG for the year. The Over is 8-1 the L9 meetings, only one of which had a lower O/U line than what we are presented with here. 10* Over Bucks/Celtics

8* Under Suns/Pelicans (7:30 ET): Still without Devin Booker, top seed Phoenix looks to close out New Orleans on Thursday. The Suns got a career playoff-high 31 points from Mikal Bridges in the Game 5 victory, which snapped a three-game run for the Over in the series. The final score was 112-97 and obviously had as much to do with what the Suns accomplished at the defensive end. They held CJ McCollum, the Pelicans’ leading scorer, to just 7 of 22 shooting. With Bridges highly unlikely to match his production from Tuesday, look for Game 6 to stay Under as well. 

Chris Paul also had a nice bounce back in Game 5, scoring 22 points and dishing out 11 assists. Only Magic Johnson and LeBron James have more 20-10 (points-assists) games in NBA playoff history than Paul’s 31. But he had just four points the last time the teams played in New Orleans and the team finished with just 103. Phoenix was quite dreadful from three-point range in the two games here, making only 11 of 53 attempts. They really miss Booker in that regard. 

Now there are reports that Booker may return tonight. But I wouldn’t expect him to be a dominant player in his first game back. With Paul and Bridges also likely to regress, that means less points than usual from Phoenix, who is 7-3 Under its L10 games. New Orleans might be slightly better on offense than they were in Game 5, but I’m also not expecting them to get to the free throw line as much. The L2 games have seen them get 77 attempts. 8* Under Suns/Pelicans

10* Over Bulls/Bucks (7:30 ET): Of all the first round series, East or West, this is the one where I was most confident in who the winner would be. Defending champion Milwaukee came in as huge favorites and though they dropped Game 2 here at home (114-110), they made short work of the Bulls in Chicago, winning the two games by a combined 54 points. That was even without Khris Middleton, who remains out indefinitely after suffering a knee injury in Game 2. The odds are high that the Bucks finish this series Wednesday night at home and honestly I’m a little leery of laying this many points. But I do see value on the Game 5 total. 

The previous four games have all stayed Under. But we’re now a long way from the Game 1 total, which closed at 230.5. While Chicago has been held to 95 points or less in each of its three losses, I do see them scoring more here with the season hanging in the balance. Game 4 just barely stayed Under and that was with the Bulls shooting just 38.9% overall and 9 of 36 from behind the arc. DeRozan, Vucevic & LaVine were a combined 3 of 17 from downtown. I think it’s quite reasonable to expect them to improve upon those percentages here tonight. They are 13-5 Over this season after being held to 100 or less this season. 

But the Bulls’ problem is going to be on the defensive end. Milwaukee has scored 110 or more in three straight, but Game 4 marked the first time they exceeded their season average of 115.2 PPG (which led the Eastern Conference). They’ve made 46 threes over the L3 games and shot 51% from long range in Game 4. Alex Caruso left the last game with a concussion and is questionable for Game 5. Back in the regular season, we saw how bad the Bulls were defensively when both Caruso and Lonzo Ball (season over) were out. The Bucks are 20-8 Over L28 as home favorites. 10* Over Bulls/Bucks

10* Over Mavs/Jazz (4:30 ET): With the potential for Luka Doncic’s return on Saturday, I’m surprised this total isn’t higher. Both Games 2 and 3 went Over the total, the latter by a significant margin (36.5 points!) Now Utah shot 56.5% in Game 3 (and still lost!), a clip we probably can’t expect them to match this afternoon. But I do expect the host Jazz to be more efficient from three-point range where they were just 9 of 28 on Thursday. This is a team that averages 15 made threes per game at home where they average 116.8 PPG. Not only is Utah the league’s third highest scoring home team, don’t forget they finished the regular season tied for the league lead (with Atlanta) in offensive efficiency.

I had Dallas plus the points in Game 3 and the cover was never really in doubt as they raced out to a 68-51 halftime lead. Once again, Jalen Brunson led the way, this time with 31 points. That followed a career-high 41 points in Game 2. He’s averaging 32 PPG for the series, clearly filling the void left by Doncic’s absence. While I don’t think the Mavs will score 126 again, even if Doncic returns, hitting their season average of 108.1 PPG is certainly realistic and probably all that we need. The Mavs are 6-2 Over their last 8 games.

Utah is on a 16-5 Over run in playoff action the last three seasons, including 12-3 in the first round. They are 3-0 to the Over when trailing in a series. Today is certainly shaping up to be a “must-win” for the Jazz as a loss means they head back to Dallas down three games to one. Things were looking up when they temporarily “stole” home court advantage by winning Game 1, but B2B outright losses have changed things in a hurry. Jazz home games have averaged 224.2 points this season. So, once again, I say this number looks low. Both teams had a 40-point quarter on Thursday. 10* Over Mavs/Jazz

10* Under Suns/Pelicans (9:30 ET): Both of last year’s NBA Finalists (Bucks & Suns) have had a trying 48 hours, not only losing Game 2 of their respective series, but also losing a key player in the process. For Phoenix, that key player is Devin Booker, who has a “Grade 1” hamstring injury. Booker leads his team with 26.8 points per game, so to say his injury is significant is no understatement. Now the Suns may very well have enough talent on hand to still get by the 8th seeded Pelicans, but expect Game 3 of this series to be low-scoring, along the lines of Game 1. Take the Under here. 

Game 2 was a wild affair with New Orleans coming from behind to win 125-114 as 9.5-point underdogs. Now Phoenix was behind, by three points, when Booker left the game. But considering Booker poured in 31 points himself in the first half, then the Suns could only manage 53 as a team in the entire second half, his absence was absolutely felt. Honestly, the bigger issue for the top seed may have been their transition defense. "That was probably, for us, the worst we have ever looked in transition since I have been here," coach Monty Williams said. "For that to happen in a playoff game was a bit unsettling for everybody. 

Now I do not expect New Orleans to shoot 54.8% from the field again like they did in Game 2. They were also 17 of 30 from three-point range, an absurd 56.7%. There’s no way they are matching those numbers tonight, even though the game is at home. Brandon Ingram was 13 of 21 shooting overall. He was perfect on threes and finished with 37-11-9. Can’t see him replicating that. Then you have the fact the Suns can’t possibly replace Booker’s production as he hit seven threes in the first half alone Wednesday. The Suns are 8-1 Under following a double digit loss this season. 10* Under Suns/Pelicans

9* Under Bucks/Bulls (8:30 ET): This is my first foray into this series, which has taken a bit of a dramatic turn in the last 48 hours. Of all the first round series in the Eastern Conference, this was the one where projecting a winner seemed to be the most obvious (and that was reaffirmed by the odds), however, not only did Milwaukee lose Game 2 at home Weds night (114-110 as a 10-point favorite), but they are now going to be without Khris Middleton for at least two weeks, which is a huge loss. Both games in Milwaukee did stay Under and now things move to Chicago. I think the Under is likely to hit again. 

Middleton is the Bucks’ second leading scorer this season (20.1 PPG), obviously trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo. He had averaged just 14.5 points in the first two games of this series, but is obviously going to be missed moving forward. Middleton wasn’t the only Bucks player to leave Game 2 with an injury; Bobby Portis had to exit with an eye injury, though it’s expected he will play tonight. So far, the Bucks have averaged just 101.5 PPG in this series (on 43.1% shooting), well below their regular season average. It doesn’t help that they are only shooting 65% from the free throw line. 

Chicago’s “big three” of DeRozan, Vucevic and LaVine combined to shoot 21 of 71 (29.6%) in Game 1, but then rebounded to 33 of 62 (53.2%) in Game 2, led by DeRozan’s 41 points. Expect them to finish somewhere “in the middle” for Game 3. I can’t see the Bulls scoring 63 points in the first half again, like they did Wednesday. Nor do I see them shooting 48% from three-point range again. All season long, Bulls’ division games have been lower scoring than non-division games, averaging just 208 PPG. The Under is 14-4 in division games. Before the Game 2 win, they’d faced Milwaukee five times (lost all five) and averaged just 98.4 PPG. 9* Under Bucks/Bulls

10* Under Nets/Celtics (7:05 ET): It was a Game 1 thriller on Sunday as the Celtics, after blowing a double digit lead, got the 115-114 win on a Jayson Tatum layup as time expired. As exciting as that finish was, I was a little “down in the dumps” due to the fact I was holding an Under ticket, which was a loser at 224.5. Oddsmakers have bumped the number up for Game 2 though and I’m seeing lots of value on the same bet (Under) as this is a Boston team that ranked #2 in defensive efficiency and #1 in scoring defense during the regular season. I do not believe Brooklyn is going to shoot 53.8% again like they did in Game 1. 

Kyrie Irving seemingly could not miss down the stretch for the Nets as he ended up with 39 points on 12/20 shooting from the field and 9/9 from the free throw line. Kevin Durant had “only” 23 points as he shot 9/24 overall, including 1 of 5 from three-point range. Certainly, the combo of Irving and Durant is capable of producing 60+ points every night. But only two other Nets finished Game 1 in double figures and both were reserves (Claxton and Dragic). Meanwhile, four Boston starters (led by Tatum’s 31) scored 20 or more points, but the rest of the team combined for a paltry 21 points. 

I’m well aware that the Over is now 5-0 in the season series between the Nets & Celtics. But at the risk of sounding like a “broken record” (from previous analysis), the playoffs are most certainly a “different animal.” There’s a good chance this could close as the highest O/U line of any of the six times the teams have met and three of the previous five closed with an O/U line of 217 pts or lower. I think that the Celtics are also due for some offensive regression (they’ve averaged 127.2 pts their L5 games) and the Under is 9-3 this season when they play with exactly two days rest. Game 2 will be lower scoring than Game 1.  10* Under Nets/Celtics

10* Over Hawks/Heat (7:35 ET): I went with the Over in Game 1 of this series, which did not hit due to Atlanta only scoring 91 points on 38.7% shooting. The team was just 10 of 36 on three-pointers with Trae Young’s 0 for 7 sticking out like a sore thumb. You may recall Young having similar struggles (1 for 7 on 3PA) in the play-in game vs. Charlotte, only to bounce back the next game (vs. Cleveland) and score 38 points. He’s only 5 for 25 from behind the arc in the L3 games, so I’m sensing Young regaining his “touch” tonight and for the Hawks to come closer to their season average of 113.8 points per game. This was the most efficient offense in the league during the regular season! 

Miami didn’t really have much trouble making shots in Game 1 as they finished at 52.4% overall, including 18 of 38 from three-point range. As I said in the Game 1 analysis, this Heat team has a variety of scoring options and on Sunday, it turned out to be Duncan Robinson leading the way as he went 8 of 9 from three-point range for a team-high 27 points. Robinson probably won’t be repeating that performance tonight, but the good news is the Heat have enough options to fill the void left by Robinson regression. Also, Atlanta is not a good defensive team; they are 26th in efficiency, which is the lowest ranking of any of the 16 playoff teams. 

I’m very surprised to see that the Hawks have gone Under nine straight times as underdogs. Look for that trend to end here though as they’ll easily top their Game 1 point total while very likely still giving up a similar number. Miami has shot better than 50% from the field in five of its last six games, never scoring fewer than 111 points in that stretch. Young’s point total (8) from Game 1 marked a season-low. It was just the sixth time that he scored 15 pts or less this season. He’s averaged 31.2 PPG after the previous five times. 10* Over Hawks/Heat

10* Under Raptors/76ers (7:30 ET): It wasn’t Joel Embiid or James Harden leading the way for the 76ers in Game 1. It was Tyrese Maxey, who had 38 points in a breakout performance. Now Maxey didn’t do it all himself as it was a huge offensive night with four players scoring 19+ and the team finishing with 131 points on 51.2% shooting, including 16 of 32 from three-point range. I can’t imagine we’ll see that kind of shooting again from Philadelphia, who is overdue for some offensive regression after averaging 125.4 points over their last five games (5-0 Over). The Sixers also made 29 free throws in Game 1, which is more than usual. 

Meanwhile, Game 1 was a largely miserable experience for Toronto, who are now likely to be without Gary Trent, Scottie Barnes and Thaddeus Young for Game 2. Now the team did shoot 48.8% on Saturday and went 12 of 30 from behind the arc. That’s better than average for the Raptors. Trent, dealing with a non-COVID illness, was 2 for 11 in Game 1. Barnes and Young’s absences will be felt, however. Clearly though, if the Raptors are to have any chances of evening up this series, it has to come on the defensive end. Game 1 was just the third time all season that they allowed 130+ points. 

I’m looking for worse all-around shooting in Game 2 - from both teams. The last two times they have played, three-point shooting has been through the roof. That just can’t continue. Toronto’s only chance here is to slow the game down. Both teams ranked in the bottom six in tempo during the regular season. They also both ranked just outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency. The Raptors’ previous six road games (before Game 1) had all stayed Under and the Under is also 5-2 the last seven times that they have been off a loss. During the regular season, the teams combined to average 36 made free throws per game. They made 48 in Game 1. 10* Under Raptors/76ers 

10* Under Nets/Celtics (3:30 ET): Unders certainly “ruled the day” in the NBA’s “Play-In Tournament,” cashing in all six games. Here we’ve got a matchup of division foes, Brooklyn and Boston, who very well could be considered the top two favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference. The Nets are the seven seed, far lower than expected, but any team with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving must be considered dangerous. They easily extinguished Cleveland in the play-in round, jumping out to a 20-point lead after the first quarter and winning 115-108. But they did not cover the spread.

Boston ended up with the best net efficiency and point differential among Eastern Conference teams at the end of the regular season. They are the highest rated team, in my own power rankings, in the East heading into the postseason. They ended up #2 overall in defensive efficiency and #1 in scoring defense (104.5 PPG allowed). Now this team was a bit of a scoring juggernaut down the stretch, averaging 129.8 points over its final five regular season games and going Over in 9 of the last 11. But I can’t see that continuing now that it’s playoff-time. We’ve seen similar trends so far with the play-in teams that ended the regular season in high scoring fashion. 

Over the last seven games, the only time Brooklyn went Over was the regular season finale against an Indiana team that is quite poor defensively. They are 36-19 Under this season when the O/U line is 220 points or higher. I just can’t see the Nets shooting as well here as they have in their last two games (64.2% vs. IND and 53.6% vs. CLE). The Celtics are allowing a 43.5 FG% for the year. Yes, I know all four regular season meetings did go Over the total. But at the risk of sounding like a “broken record,” the playoffs are a different animal. 10* Under Nets/Celtics

8* Over Hawks/Heat (1:00 ET): Overs made a bit of a “comeback” in the NBA playoffs on Saturday, cashing in three of the four games. That was after the first seven playoff games all stayed Under. I expect the Over “comeback” to continue in this game as division rivals Atlanta & Miami open their best of seven series. The Hawks had to win two “do or die” games just to get to this point, 132-103 over Charlotte (at home) and then 107-101 at Cleveland. I cashed the Under on both of those games. But with a lower total on this game, I’m expecting a different result. 

Despite an off-shooting night from leading scorer Trae Young, who was 8 of 24 overall and 1 of 7 from three-point range, Atlanta still put together a huge offensive performance against Charlotte. Of course, that was at home. Collectively, they didn’t shoot very well from three against Cleveland, making only 9 of 31 attempts. But this time Young rescued them with a 38-point performance. I obviously expect better three-point shooting Sunday from the Hawks. This is a high-scoring team (114.1 PPG) that is #1 in the league in offensive efficiency! I just can’t see them going Under for a ninth straight time as underdogs. 

Miami is the top seed in the East, boasting tremendous depth and a variety of scorers. They led the NBA in three-point shooting during the regular season (37.9%) and in four games vs. Atlanta this season, the Heat shot better than 50% overall. The Hawks aren’t a very good defensive team (they allow 112.8 PPG on the road) and after holding Charlotte/Cleveland to an average of 102 PPG, I think there’s some natural regression at that end of the floor. Four of the Heat’s last five regular season games went Over. 8* Over Hawks/Heat

9* Under Raptors/76ers (6:05 ET): Taking the full advantage of both Chicago & Cleveland falling apart down the stretch, Toronto moved up into fifth place in the East and will now face a Philadelphia team they were victorious against three times in four regular season meetings. The Raptors have lost only four times since March 7th and one of those came in the utterly meaningless regular season finale. Let it be known the Raptors beat the 76ers in both meetings after the latter acquired James Harden. So the team from “North of the Border” certainly seems like a “live dog” in Game 1. But I’m not sure they’re going to score a ton of points on Saturday. 

Philadelphia's last four regular season games all went Over, one of them being a 119-114 loss in Toronto. The total here is lower, somewhat curiously, but I seriously doubt we’ll see the teams shoot as well from three-point range here as they did in that last matchup when they combined to make nearly 50 percent from behind the arc. Two of the Sixers’ last four games saw them top 130 points, but both of those were against the horrendous Pacers. It’s playoff time, and even with Harden and Joel Embiid, the Sixers are due for a bit of a scoring decline. 

Both teams rank just outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency and are bottom six in pace. That combo leads me to believe that Game 1 will be lower scoring than expected. Both teams scored less this season when matched up with division opponents. The last time they met here in Philly, which was less than a month ago, the final score was 93-88. Harden has averaged just 15.0 PPG against the Raptors as a member of the Sixers. Toronto is 19-7 Under its L26 road games. 9* Under Raptors/76ers

8* Under Pelicans/Clippers (10:05 ET): I hit side and total when the Clippers lost 109-104 in Minnesota on Tuesday. The Under was never really in doubt as the O/U line closed at 231. The Clippers thought they were on their way to the playoffs when they were up 10 in the fourth quarter and Karl Anthony-Towns fouled out. But it was not to be as they finished with just 20 points in the 4Q. As I said in the previous writeup, they were due for an “off-night” offensively after closing the regular season with five straight wins where they averaged 128 PPG. I think that carries over to tonight. 

New Orleans was able to run away from San Antonio early and hold on for a 113-103 win Wednesday. That was my only loss in the play-in round as I took the Spurs plus the points. That play had more to do with what I thought was an underrated Spurs’ side. Tip your cap to the Pelicans for their performance, but I don’t think the team’s three leading scorers (McCollum, Ingram, Valanciunas) will be as efficient as they were in the last game when they combined to shoot 32 of 56 from the field (57.1%) and score 81 points. Note the rest of the team scored just 32 points. On the road, role players contribute less and the Under is 26-15 in Pelicans’ away games this season.

The Under has cashed in four of the last five head to head meetings between these teams, both of whom surprisingly ranked OUTSIDE the top 10 in the Western Conference in points per game. Looking back to the regular season, the two games here in Los Angeles were higher scoring than the two in New Orleans, but the Clips were only able to top 104 pts against the Pelicans once and that was a relatively meaningless affair late in the year. The Pelicans will NOT shoot 54% again (like they did vs. SA) as the Clips have held their L5 opponents to 40.7% shooting and 100.8 PPG. 8* Under Pelicans/Clippers

8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers (7:35 ET): Home teams won each of the first four play-in games, but bettors sure don’t seem to like Cleveland’s chances here. That’s probably because, in addition to a poor finish to the regular season, the Cavaliers fell into an early 20-point hole against the Nets (by the end of the first quarter) and never really recovered on Tuesday. But they did cover the spread in that game (only road team to cover this week) and they have an added day of preparation here, plus the home court edge. There’s also the possibility that All-Star Jarrett Allen returns, which would be significant for the Cavs. 

Atlanta blew out Charlotte 132-103 in their first play-in matchup, but unlike Cleveland, the Hawks have to win twice to make the playoffs. The Hawks scored 132 despite an off-night from leading scorer Trae Young, who was 8 of 24 overall and 1 of 7 from three-point range. That has to be terrifying for a Cleveland team that let Young, who averaged 32.5 PPG in the four regular season meetings. But while Young’s overall shooting is bound to improve (compared to Wednesday), I don’t think you can expect the Hawks’ supporting cast to shoot as well as they did Wednesday now that they’re on the road.

Atlanta is not a particularly good road team (16-25 SU) and sees its scoring average dip to 111.2 PPG. They go from facing a Hornets team that was dead last in the East in scoring defense to a Cleveland team that is top five in the NBA in scoring defense. The Under is 25-15-1 in Cavs’ home games this season with them allowing just 103.7 PPG. Allen’s return (he is questionable) would be huge at the defensive end. Home teams aren’t the only thing that have been perfect so far in the play-in round; Unders are 4-0 as well. Atlanta did a good job defensively Weds against a Charlotte team that is 4th in the league in scoring. 8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers

9* Under Hornets/Hawks (7:05 ET): A win here does not guarantee either the Hornets or Hawks a playoff opportunity, rather the winner will head to Cleveland Friday for a game to determine the East’s 8-seed. Charlotte is back in the play-in tournament for a second straight year. Last year, they lost in this 9-10 game, 144-117 to Indiana, ending their season. For Atlanta, being here is a drop from last year when they entered the playoffs as a 5-seed and made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals. This is a VERY high total for two teams familiar with one another and I’m playing the Under. 

Hornets’ games - on average - are the highest scoring in the entire NBA. They average 230.2 PPG, but even that wouldn’t be enough to go Over this number. During the regular season, the Hornets went Over 41 times and Under 41 times. But when facing a team with a winning record (Atlanta is 43-39 SU), the Under is 27-13. I don’t expect Charlotte to shoot as well as they did over the L5 regular season games (53.5%) nor do I believe they’ll allow Atlanta to shoot 50.9%, which was the FG% allowed by the Hornets to those same L5 opponents. 

Three of the four regular season meetings between the Hawks & Hornets stayed Under, including the most recent one (a 116-106 Charlotte win). Only once did these Southeast Division rivals combine for more than 222 points in the regular season. Similar to Charlotte, Atlanta is 12-2 Under its last 14 games vs. teams with winning records. Do the Hawks score a lot at home? Yes. But their home games still only average 228.4 PPG. In the playoffs, scoring goes down. 9* Under Hornets/Hawks

8* Under Clippers/T’wolves (9:30 ET): Getting this game at home is big for Minnesota, but also for the Under. T’wolves’ games are simply far lower scoring at home than on the road. While their road games average a somewhat stunning 236.6 points per game, at home that number drops down to 221.8. Most of that scoring decline can be traced to the team’s improved play at the defensive end. They allow just 108.4 PPG at home, nearly 10 PPG less than what they allow on the road. They also allow 5.0 PPG less. So I’m going with the Under Tuesday. 

The Clippers have seen a huge uptick in their scoring over the last five games, all of which they won. They’ve averaged 128 PPG during the win streak, which began with a stunning 153-point effort against the Bucks. Shockingly, that was a game where both teams rested star players. Most of the Clippers’ games down the stretch lacked “playoff intensity” as the opponent was either a non-contender (Sacramento, OKC) or had nothing to play for (Phoenix). 

If this O/U line holds, it will be just the second time all season that a Clippers’ game closes with a 230+ point total. So I think there’s value in the Under. Bottom line: the Clippers are due for an “off-night” at the offensive end and I’ve already gone through the huge difference in scoring between Minnesota home and road games. The T’wolves last five opponents have combined to shoot 53.4%, but that’s not going to hold here as they allow a FG% of just 43.7% at home for the year. Keep an eye on the status of PG Russell (illness), obviously. 8* Under Clippers/T’wolves

10* Under Kings/Clippers (9:40 ET): With three games still to play, the Clippers are already locked into the 8-seed in the Western Conference. They know that they’ll be facing the T’wolves in the play-in tournament with the winner moving on to the playoffs proper. The loser will get a second chance against the Pelicans-Spurs winner. Sacramento, as per usual, fell out of contention long ago. It’s all about pride for them at this point, but they’ve shown little of that lately with B2B double digit losses at home.

The Kings actually haven’t played since Tuesday when they fell 123-109 to New Orleans. They shot 51% from the field, but it wasn’t enough as they allowed the Pelicans to shoot the same percentage with more attempts. I don’t think we’ll see that kind of combined shooting in this game. Sacramento is without De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, who are their top two scorers.

These division rivals haven’t met since December when they played three times. This total is much higher than any of those three previous meetings. The total number of points scored across the three meetings decreased every game, culminating with only 194 being scored in the last one. The Clippers, who are due for some offensive regression, have also held their last two opponents to a combined FG% below 40.0. Both of these teams are in the bottom seven in offensive efficiency. 10* Under Kings/Clippers

10* Over Wizards/Knicks (7:10 ET): Consider this a “battle for 11th place” in the Eastern Conference, although that’s a relatively meaningless distinction as you need to finish top 10 to qualify for the play-in round. So it’s little more than “pride” on the line Friday night when the Knicks and Wizards take the court. These teams have met two times previously this season. The first was on X-Mas Day and they blew past the total (208) with the Wiz winning 124-117 as 2.5-point underdogs. The total was much higher for the rematch last month (225.5) and that time they didn’t come close to matching it as the Knicks won 100-97. 

Now this play is a departure from the last time I played the total with the Knicks, which was just two days ago when they lost to the Knicks 110-98. That didn’t even come close to going Over as the number closed at 230. Glad I had the Under then. The Under is now 6-1 in the Knicks’ last seven games as they remain one of the lowest scoring teams in the NBA. But here they’re matched up with a team that plays little to no defense. Washington is allowing 117.8 PPG over its last five contests and like the Knicks, the O/U line for the Wizards’ last game was much higher than this one. So was the previous game, for that matter. 

Washington had gone Over in four straight before losing to Atlanta 118-103 on Wednesday. Now that final score would have obviously gone over this total. The previous four Wizards’ games all saw a minimum of 237 total points scored. In four of their last seven games, they have scored 123+ pts. Expect the Knicks to shoot better here than they did on Wednesday (just 38.6%) when they scored just 31 points in the second half. The Over is 7-1 the L8 times NY has been off a DD loss at home. The Wizards will shoot better from three tonight compared to the Atlanta game when they were just 10 of 35. They also attempted only 11 free throws in that game. They are 9-1 Over L10 home games. 10* Over Wizards/Knicks

9* Over Magic/Hornets (7:10 ET): I don’t expect much defense to be played in this Thursday NBA tilt. Certainly Charlotte hasn’t been playing good defense recently. They’ve allowed 144 points in B2B games, which is absolutely abysmal yet this is the team with the worst scoring defense in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets allow 115.1 PPG for the season, so they should feel rather fortunate to be heading for the play-in tournament next week where they’ll likely have to win twice. Of course, being a top five team offensively (114.8 PPG) is why they’ve still got a shot at making the playoffs. 

Orlando just hung 120 on Cleveland Tuesday in an admittedly uncharacteristic show of offensive strength. The Magic will NOT be heading to the postseason this year; in fact they’re all but guaranteed at finishing in the basement of the Eastern Conference. That win over Cleveland snapped a six-game losing streak and came on the heels of two sorry offensive efforts where they failed to score 90 points in consecutive games. We probably can’t count on the Magic scoring 120 again tonight, but consider their defense is lousy (112.0 PPG allowed this season) and five of their last seven opponents have scored at least 114. 

Whomever the road team has been, they have won the previous three head to head meetings this season. After losing to the Hornets twice at home early in the season, the Magic returned the favor with a 116-109 win here in Charlotte back in January (as 11-point underdogs!) While the Magic are not an offensive juggernaut, it should be pointed out that the Hornets have allowed the last two opponents to shoot 59% from the field overall and make 44 three-pointers. On average, no other team in the league plays higher scoring games than Charlotte (229.9 PPG). 9* Over Magic/Hornets

10* Under Celtics/Bulls (8:10 ET): Boston has been scoring A LOT of points recently. They are coming off a 144-point effort (against Washington) on Sunday (I won with the Over) and before that won 128-123 over Indiana. Robert Williams is out (until at least the second round of the playoffs), but the Celtics certainly haven’t skipped a beat offensively as they shot a blistering 61.5% vs. the Wizards and made 23 three-pointers! They can’t possibly repeat that performance tonight in Chicago as it’s a “packed” injury report for this evening. Brown, Tatum and Horford are probable. But, in addition to Williams, Morgan and Stauskas are also out. Look for some serious offensive regression from the C’s tonight. 

I say that knowing full well how the Bulls have struggled defensively the last few games, and really the entire second half of the season. Chicago has given up 127+ points in each of its last three games, including a 127-106 loss last night to Milwaukee here at home. Lonzo Ball’s season is likely over with, but it’s not all bad for the Bulls as they did clinch a top six spot in the playoffs (due to Cleveland losing), so they’ll avoid the play-in tournament. But this team has little “momentum” (still hate that word) heading into the postseason. I’d argue they are the weakest of the 10 teams still viable in the East 

Seeding is all that’s on the line for these two teams in the last few remaining games. Chicago is expected to get Zach LaVine back after he sat out last night. But, other than DeMar DeRozan, the rest of LaVine’s teammates did very little against Milwaukee. Take away DeRozan’s numbers and the Bulls shot just 36% last night. Boston is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and allows only 104.3 PPG. They are 8-2 Under this season when playing on exactly two days' rest. The Bulls are 4-0 Under their L4 times in a back to back. 10* Under Celtics/Bulls.

8* Under Nets/Knicks (7:40 ET): I’m going with the Nets Under again after cashing that particular wager last night. The total closed at a very high 244.5 last night vs. Houston, a season-high for the Nets. The O/U result was never really in doubt as the game ended 118-105 in Brooklyn’s favor. That was a needed win for the Nets, who are looking to finish 8th in the East as that would mean they’d only need to win once in the play-in tournament (which they are now guaranteed to be a part of). It’s another also-ran on the docket for tonight as the Nets will face a Knicks team that is eliminated from playoff contention.

New York hasn’t played since Sunday - when they crushed Orlando 118-88 in an utterly meaningless game. So they’ll have the significant rest advantage coming into this game. Despite losing all three times, the Knicks have played the Nets tough this year as the three losses have been by a combined 10 points, none greater than five. Also, the most combined points in any of the games was 222. Tonight’s O/U line is notably higher than any of the three previous meetings. Now Kyrie Irving, coming off a 42-point game last night is now in the mix. But let’s see how he does in a rare back to back. My guess is that he won’t be as prolific as last night. He’d shot just 26% the previous five games.

The Nets are also short-handed right now without Curry, Dragic and Johnson. (Note: there is a chance Dragic and/or Johnson could suit up). This team has been really bad on the second night of a back to back this season, going just 2-11 SU and averaging 106.7 PPG. The Knicks are one of the league’s lowest scoring teams at 106.5 PPG (27th) and also are tied for 27th in pace. For both teams, the Under is 5-1 in their last six games. 8* Under Nets/Knicks

8* Under Spurs/Nuggets (9:10 ET): A San Antonio team that has actually outscored its opponents this season (despite being 12 games below .500!) deserves to make the play-in round. After winning six of seven, the Spurs are now 10th in the West, two games up on the floundering Lakers. The remaining schedule will not be easy though; as they face four of the top six teams in the Conference. The status of leading scorer Dejounte Murray (illness) remains in question for tonight. While the Spurs won their last game without him, they won’t have the luxury of facing Portland again here on Tuesday.

While the Spurs are simply trying to scrape their way into the play-in tournament, the Nuggets are hoping to avoid that exercise entirely. Denver is currently fifth, two games up on seventh place Minnesota. All they are looking to do is finish in the top six. Led by reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, points have been plentiful of late as the Nuggets have scored 125+ points in five of the last seven games. The Over is 8-2 the L10 games. But the shooting we’ve seen from them over the L3 games (62.5%, 53.5% and 57.3%) is certainly due to subside. For the year, their games average 222.3 PPG, which is well below tonight’s O/U line. 

San Antonio hopes to have both Murray and Jakob Poeltl back in the lineup tonight. Regardless, I don’t think the Spurs will keep scoring at the level we’ve seen recently. They’ve gotten to face Portland three times in the last seven games, not to mention Houston (who is 30th in scoring defense). The Under is 16-5 in the Spurs’ last 21 games following an ATS win and 6-1 the L7 times they’ve been off a double digit win. As I already mentioned, Denver is unlikely to keep up its FG% from the L3 games, so I’m rolling with the Under on this high total. 8* Under Spurs/Nuggets

10* Under Rockets/Nets (7:40 ET): This is an absurdly high total, even for a matchup of the team that plays the worst defense in the NBA (Houston) and one of the more prolific offensive squads (Brooklyn). We’ve obviously seen some high scoring games involving the Nets recently. However, with these high totals, the Under is actually 4-1 their L5 games. Only one of those five contests would have gone Over tonight’s total, which is the highest O/U line yet for a Nets game this season! I’m taking the Under here. 

Even Houston having given up an average of 120.6 points over its last five games doesn’t have me too concerned here. For the season, they give up 118.1, most in the league. The last four games have all gone Over, but that’s with the Rockets averaging over 120 PPG themselves, which is well above their season average. For the year, the team is averaging 107.4 PPG on the road. So I expect some real offensive regression from the road team in this one. In their last game, they shot 56.5% from the field. That won’t happen again here. The Rockets are 17-4 Under after a game where they scored 130+ points, including 3-0 this season. 

 Speaking of “offensive regression,” Brooklyn’s Kevin Durant will not be matching his scoring output from Saturday’s game in Atlanta where he had 55 points (in a loss!). The Nets also could be without Seth Curry, Bruce Brown and Goran Dragic for tonight’s game. Kyrie Irving is shooting just 26.6% his L5 games. As a team, Brooklyn averages fewer PPG at home than on the road. On the bright side, the Nets won’t be sending Houston to the free throw line 49 times like they did against Atlanta. The Nets should win this one easily and the game likely being a blowout should mean fewer points in the fourth quarter, helping our cause. 10* Under Rockets/Nets

8* Over Wizards/Celtics (1:10 ET): I believe Boston is the favorite to come out of the Eastern Conference (for the NBA Finals), but for now the team is going to miss Robert Williams, who was one of their best defenders. Williams is out until at least the start of the second round of the playoffs after suffering a torn meniscus last weekend. Without him, the Celtics dropped two in a row, losing to Toronto (in OT) and Miami. But they bounced back on Friday with a 128-123 win over Indiana. Still, in three of the last four games, Boston has surrendered 110 or more points. They’ll be challenged again defensively here, facing a team that has put up 262 points its last two games. 

While Boston is battling for a high seed in the East, Washington has officially been eliminated from playoff contention. But the Wizards aren’t rolling over. They’ve won four of five and just destroyed Dallas 135-103 on Friday. They had a pair of 41-point quarters in that game and got a season-high 35 points from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. While I do not anticipate the team will be able to match its hot three-point shooting from the last game (17 of 33), at the same time the Wiz are also probably due for some defensive regression. Dallas shot only 29% from beyond the arc on Friday. The Wiz typically allow a much higher percentage. 

I know that none of the previous nine head to head meetings have gone Over in regulation. But this is a prolific Boston team still hoping to finish first in the East. They are currently third in the East, two games behind first place Miami and just a half game behind second place Milwaukee. They are also just a half game ahead of fourth place Philadelphia. The Celtics have scored 124 or more points in six of its last eight games. Washington has scored 123 or more in three of its last four games. The Celtics are 3-0 Over as home favorites of 12.5 or more points this season while the Wizards are 4-0 Over their L4 games following a SU win by 10+ points. 8* Over Wizards/Celtics

8* Under Suns/Grizzlies (8:10 ET): These teams will be the top two seeds in the Western Conference come playoff time. Phoenix, who is way out in front of everybody, has already clinched the top spot and matched a franchise record for wins (62) after prevailing in each of their last nine games. Clearly, the Suns have been the best team in the league this season. Memphis is second in the West, 8.5 games back of the Suns, and is on its own win streak right now (six in a row). Even more impressive is that they are doing it without Ja Morant. The Grizzlies are an incredible 19-2 SU this season when Morant is NOT in the lineup.

With the lack of stakes, this game will hardly resemble a “playoff-like atmosphere.” However, I still expect strong defensive efforts and this one to go Under the total. The last three Grizzlies’ games have all stayed Under. One would think that with Morant out, the scoring would suffer. But the key to the win streak has been holding four of the last six opponents to 103 points or less. I do think that not having Morant will hurt the Grizz in this matchup, at the offensive end. The team has shot better than its average from three-point range in five of the last six games and I don’t see that continuing here. 

It appears as if Memphis will be sitting several players tonight. Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr, Steven Adams, Tyus Jones and Killian Tillie are all listed as doubtful or OUT. This is a team that relies on its depth, but I have little faith in the “skeleton crew” that will take the floor in this game. Phoenix has to be happy about it, especially after holding Philadelphia and Golden State to 104 and 103 points respectively in the last two games. None of the previous five Suns-Grizzlies encounters have seen more than 227 total points scored. This one won’t either. 8* Under Suns/Grizzlies

9* Over Grizzlies/Spurs (8:40 ET): Memphis is clearly now the second best team in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies have clinched a playoff spot, surpassed both the Warriors and Jazz in YTD point differential and hold a five-game lead (with six to play) over third place. So this will be the #2 seed in the Western Conference, barring a miracle. That means they’ll face a team that escapes the play-in round in Round 1. Speaking of the play-in round, that’s all the Spurs are hoping for at this point. Last night’s loss by the Lakers moved SA into 10th in the West, a spot they’ll try and hold onto over the next two weeks. 

If you can believe it, Memphis is 18-2 SU this season when Ja Morant doesn’t play. That’s insane. Morant is out again tonight, but it hasn’t mattered as the Grizzlies are averaging a stunning 127.4 points their last five games, all without Morant. They’ve shot better than normal during that stretch, but not astronomically better (48.4%). A big key to the Grizzlies’ success is that they are obviously a deep team. Their second unit logs more minutes per game than any other second unit in the league. You’ve also got Desmond Bane, who has scored 22 or more points in every game since Morant went down. 

San Antonio is NOT a great defensive team, so they should struggle to stop Memphis here. But the Spurs can trade buckets. They are coming off a 123-120 win the other night (in Houston). Dejounte Murray scored a career-high 33 in that game and the thing is the team didn’t shoot all that well (47.0% overall), especially from three-point range (21%). So both teams should be able to maintain recent scoring levels tonight. The total was several points higher when they met last month. There were 126 points scored in the 1H of that last meeting, but it ended up just staying under because of a low-scoring 4Q. Not this time. 9* Over Grizzlies/Spurs

10* Over T’wolves/Raptors (7:40 ET): Minnesota has undoubtedly been one of the best teams in the NBA since the All-Star Break. However, having dropped three of their last four games, they seem destined for the play-in round as the seven seed. Entering Wednesday, the T’wolves are two games back of Denver (with six to play) in the race for the six seed. It didn’t help that the T’wolves gave up 134 points in a loss to Boston on Sunday. Defense has not been this team’s strong suit, at least when playing on the road where they have allowed an average of 117.7 PPG this season. That’s a big reason why I’m on the Over here.

Over in the Eastern Conference, Toronto’s prospects of avoiding the play-in round are looking good. They’ve passed Cleveland into sixth and can move back into a fifth place tie with Chicago with a win tonight. The Raptors have won three straight, scoring 115 or more points in every game, and have just two losses over the last three weeks. Now they needed overtime to get the win on Monday, over a short-handed Celtics team that had just beaten Minnesota the day before. But while Pascal Siakam may not match his individual effort (40 points) from Monday here, the team should shoot better than 43.4%. 

Toronto also made just 10 of 39 three-point attempts against Boston, well below their season average of 35%. They shouldn’t have much trouble draining threes here against a Minnesota team that allows opponents to hit 36% from behind the arc, on the road. The T’wolves let Boston shoot 56.3% overall on Sunday. But at the same time, the Raptors will probably also struggle defensively in this matchup. Minnesota averages 117.9 PPG itself on the road, so it should be no shock that the Over is 28-10 in all of their away games this season. The Over is 15-7 in Toronto’s last 22 home games. 10* Over T’wolves/Raptors

8* Under Celtics/Raptors (7:40 ET): I also like the Under here. The Celtics shot 56.3% from the floor last night and made 17 threes. Don’t expect them to match those numbers in the second night of a back to back, especially if they end up being extremely undermanned. On the flip side, the Raptors are off their third highest-scoring effort of the season and won’t be able to match their offensive output from the last game either. They shot 60.9% from the field and were 15 of 32 from three-point range. 

While I do like Toronto to cover the spread here, look for Boston to play better defense than they did last night vs. Minnesota. The Celtics are #1 in the league in scoring defense and efficiency. The T’wolves, who play at the fastest pace in the league, shot 53.6% overall and were 14 of 32 from behind the arc last night. Both of these teams are in the bottom seven in the league in pace. Toronto has held three of its last four opponents to 104 points or less. The Under is 10-4 their L14 games and 2-0 this season after their previous two 130+ point efforts. The Under has also hit in all three previous head to head meetings between these teams this season. 8* Under Celtics/Raptors

8* Under Jazz/Mavericks (7:40 ET): Utah has lost three straight, its worst losing streak since a stretch in January when it dropped 11 of 13 games (had a 5-game and 4-game losing skid during that stretch). This recent skid has dropped the Jazz into a fourth place tie with the team they’ll face tonight, Dallas, who is also entering in off a loss. You may recall that I played the Jazz Under the total their last time out and that was an easy win as they and the Hornets combined for only 208 points (O/U line closed at 228). Tonight’s O/U line isn’t quite as high, but the opponent is also better defensively. Going Under again. 

Dallas has seen the Under hit in each of its last three games. As mentioned above, the Mavs’ most recent game was a loss. They fell 116-95 in Minnesota, a result which was doubly bad as it means no ground was gained on Utah and the T’wolves (and Nuggets) are breathing down the Mavs’ neck. Unders are nothing new for Dallas as they are the #1 Under team in the NBA this season and it’s been home games mostly responsible for that. The Under is 26-10-1 in Mavericks’ home games and the primary reason for that is they are allowing an average of just 102.1 PPG here. 

Utah has failed to score its season average in four consecutive contests, which is likely tied to them being without Bojan Bogdanovic, who is their second leading scorer. He’ll again be out on Sunday. The Jazz’s scoring has also always been lower on the road (110.7) compared to the road (116.3). Dallas did not shoot well in Minnesota Friday night, but any gains made at the offensive end tonight will be offset by improvement at the defensive end. They let the T’wolves shoot 51.2%, which was the highest percentage by any Mavs’ opponent since 2/25. When these teams met here in Dallas three weeks ago, the Mavs won 111-103. 8* Under Jazz/Mavericks

10* Over Thunder/Nuggets (9:10 ET): At this point, Denver’s main goal is to hold onto sixth place in the Western Conference. Their lead over seventh place Minnesota is down to one-half game after the T’wolves beat the fifth place Mavs Friday night. Those three teams (Mavs, Nuggets, T’wolves) are all separated by 2.5 games and obviously one of them is going to be “odd team out” when it comes to having to win in the play-in round. For tonight’s game vs. OKC however, I’m more focused on the fact that the Nuggets have gone Over in each of their last five contests. 

Defensively, the Nuggets are allowing 121.4 PPG during the 5-0 Over stretch. They are just 2-3 SU after being blitzed 140-130 here at home by Phoenix Thursday night. I had the Over in that one and obviously it was a (very) easy winner. On the bright side for Denver, they are averaging 120.8 PPG over the L5 games. They shot 59.3% against the Suns (only to allow 60.5% shooting). There should be little issue scoring tonight on a Thunder team that has allowed 120 or more points eight different times here in March, including seven of the last nine games. 

OKC were 118-102 winners in their last game, which was at home against Orlando. That was a much higher scoring game than the previous time the Thunder faced the Magic (on 3/20) where there were just 175 total pts scored (and I cashed the Under). In between the games vs. Orlando, the Thunder got beat 132-123 by Boston. Since March 8th, Orlando is the only team not to score at least 120 against OKC. On the bright side, leading scorer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could return tonight. Look for this to turn into a really high-scoring game as the Over is 13-3-1 in the Thunder’s L17 games. 10* Over Thunder/Nuggets

9* Over Bulls/Cavs (8:10 ET): This is a critically important game for both teams as it really does feel like one of them is poised to drop out of the top six in the East. Chicago was once on top of the “conference heap” but they have had a brutal second half of the season, losing 10 of their last 13 games. Interestingly, two of the wins came against the Cavs and Raptors, the two teams now directly below them in the standings. Cleveland is tied with Toronto for sixth place as they’ve dropped B2B games. 

Key to the Bulls’ decline has been the defensive end of the floor. Injuries to Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso had a major hand in the defensive decline. Caruso is probable for tonight, but Ball remains out. A bit of positive news is that leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (27.6 PPG) is listed as probable as well. DeRozan missed Thursday’s loss to New Orleans where the team put up only 109 points. Of course, the Bulls also gave up 126 in that game, which was the fourth time in the last five games they allowed 125+ points. 

Cleveland’s last six games have all gone Over the total as there has been major regression on the defensive end here as well. The Cavs have allowed 118.2 PPG their L5 games. At least they are scoring though. Before suffering a 117-104 loss in Toronto on Thursday, the team had scored 113+ in five consecutive games. Given how both teams have been playing at the defensive end of late, I’ve got no choice but to go Over in this one. 9* Over Bulls/Cavs

8* Over Warriors/Hawks (7:40 ET): Without Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson Golden State somehow managed to beat Miami on Wednesday, 118-104 as a 10-point underdog. Curry (foot) is out indefinitely, but Green and Thompson will both be back in the lineup Friday as the team faces Atlanta. (Those two were simply given Wednesday off). The Warriors can’t afford any kind of letdown here as they now trail Memphis by 2.5 games in the race for the second seed in the Western Conference. I think we’ll see plenty of offense from the Dubs tonight, even without Curry.

In the East, Atlanta finds itself at the back end of the playoff race, currently occupying the last play-in spot. It’s a far cry from last season when the team made a run to the Conference Finals. Losing by 21 in Detroit on Wednesday was NOT what the “doctor ordered,” although perhaps that result was the byproduct of being in the second night of a back to back. Things really fell apart for the Hawks in the second half when they were on the wrong end of a 23-0 run and then could only manage two points over the first four minutes of the fourth quarter. With them now back at home, I am expecting a far better offensive effort in tonight’s game. 

The Hawks are averaging 116 PPG at State Farm Arena, which is marked improvement from the 109.6 PPG they average on the road. But regardless of where they are playing, the team is giving up just over 112 PPG this season. Trae Young had only 21 points in Detroit after scoring 45+ in three of his previous five games, two of those coming here at home. If Golden State can score 118 without its three best players in the lineup, certainly we should expect around the same with two of them back in the lineup tonight. They actually shot 51.9% against the Heat and are now 6-2-1 Over L9 road games. 8* Over Warriors/Hawks

8* Under Jazz/Hornets (7:10 ET): So the Jazz have lost B2B games for the first time since January. They were humbled Wednesday in Boston, losing 125-97 to the Celtics as a 4.5-point underdog. Entering that game, Utah had the league’s sixth highest scoring offense, but they were held under 100 points for the first time since March 4th as they went 8 of 36 from three-point range. However, I’d say it was the defense that let them down more. They allowed the Celtics to shoot a season-high 59% for the game and make their first 10 shots. That’s why the Jazz found themselves down by as many as 30 points before halftime. 

Charlotte turned in a similarly poor defensive effort that same night against the Knicks. New York would score 40 pts in the 1Q en route to a 121-106 final, ending the Hornets’ five-game win streak. Charlotte really struggled to defend the three in that game, letting the Knicks hit 14 of 26 from distance. Look for that to be a “point of emphasis” here as the Hornets try to lock down one of the “play-in” spots in the East. Similarly, Utah has to be concerned with preserving its status as a top four team in the West. So I’m looking for better defensive efforts from both sides tonight.

The Hornets played much better defense over the final three quarters against the Knicks, but it was largely “too little, too late.” Their games, on average, are the highest scoring in the league, but still not at the level of tonight’s number. This season, Charlotte is 24-10 Under when facing an opponent that has a winning record, including 12-3 L15 in that situation. Looking at the number from the Jazz’s perspective, they are 7-1 Under this season when the O/U line is 230 points or higher, including 3-0 on the road. 8* Under Jazz/Hornets

8* Over Wizards/Pistons (7:10 ET): I do not expect much defense to be played in this game. Washington has dropped eight of nine, really putting a dent in their already fleeting playoff hopes. They just lost (last night) 114-102 to a Milwaukee team that was resting both Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo. That result leaves the Wizards 5.5 games back of 10th place Atlanta for the last play-in spot and let’s be honest here: the Wiz aren’t making that kind of ground up. They’re allowing an average of 115 points over the L5 games. 

Detroit is simply looking to avoid the Eastern Conference cellar at this point as they continue to battle with Orlando at the bottom of the standings. It was a rare win on Wednesday, 122-101 over Atlanta, as rookie Cade Cunningham led the way with 17 points, six rebounds and eight assists. Cunningham was one of eight Pistons to finish in double figures, so it was a real “team effort” and at one point they went on a 23-0 run! It’s also now four straight games for the Pistons where there has been AT LEAST 222 total points scored. 

In three of their last four games, Detroit has scored at least 115 points. Can they keep that up here? I think so. Washington has allowed eight of its last 10 opponents to shoot over 50% from the field. This being the second night of a back to back for the Wizards is key as they are 9-2 Over in that situation this season and 27-11 Over the L3 seasons. But look for the Wiz to shoot well themselves, certainly better than they did last night from three (28.9% vs. MIL). The Pistons have held B2B opponents under 42% from the field, which is atypical for them. 8* Over Wizards/Pistons

8* Over Suns/Nuggets (9:10 ET): A Suns’ win tonight would give them home court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs. Even if they fail to get the job done here, with a nine game lead over second place Memphis, bank on last year’s Western Conference champs ending up as the top seed. Whereas LY’s run caught everyone by surprise, this season the Suns have clearly been the league’s most dominant team, posting the top net efficiency rating and point differential. A big key to their success is having one of the league’s top offenses. Coming into tonight, Phoenix is averaging 128.2 points over its L5 games. 

Denver is no slouch in the scoring department either. They have averaged 117.6 points over their last five games and that’s not all that far above what they average for the season here at home (113.5). Right now, the Nuggets are simply trying to hold on to a top six spot in the West. Phoenix did them a real “solid” last night by beating Minnesota 125-116. That widened the gap between the Nuggets and T’Wolves to 1.5 games. Denver is coming off a 127-115 win over the Clippers on Tuesday night. In that game, they shot 54.2% overall from the field and 50% from three-point range. 

The Nuggets’ last four games have all gone Over the total. The Suns are 6-1 Over in their last seven games. I know that we’ve got a high total here and both teams can’t keep scoring the way that they have recently, but I still don’t think the number is high enough for tonight’s game. Phoenix has allowed 111 or more points in six of its last seven games and I don’t think this being the second night of a back to back really helps. The Over is 6-1 in Suns’ road games when the total is 230 or higher. Denver has given up 115+ points in each of the L3 games. Look for a high-scoring game. 8* Over Suns/Nuggets

10* Under Bulls/Pelicans (8:10 ET): Chicago ran into a train named “Milwaukee” Tuesday night, getting crushed by the Bucks 126-98. The defending NBA Champs shot a blistering 61 percent from the field against the Bulls, handing them their ninth defeat in the past 12 games. Now you would think, giving up that many points, that Tuesday’s game went Over. But much to my chagrin (I had the Over), it did not. The Bulls scored only 98, their fewest in a game this month. But I do not think they are about to allow the kind of shooting we saw in that last game either. Take the Under here. 

New Orleans is also coming off a loss, 106-103 at Charlotte. They were looking to make it a 3-0 road trip after winning at San Antonio and Atlanta. But scoring only 10 points over the final nine minutes won’t get it done. Like Chicago, the Pelicans’ last three games have all stayed Under the total. (Bulls are also 8-1 Under L9 games). I know the previous six meetings between these teams have all gone Over, but this one should be different as there could be multiple key absences and the number is just too high, given respective season averages. 

Bulls’ games are averaging 223.0 PPG this season. There’s really no difference home vs. road. Meanwhile, Pelicans’ games average just 218.4 PPG this season. At home, things tend to be a little higher scoring (220.9), but not much. Monitor the statuses of Chicago’s DeMar DeRozan and New Orleans’ Brandon Ingram. The latter has missed the L8 games, so him being out again wouldn’t be a surprise. But DeRozan, the Bulls’ leading scorer, is now listed as questionable after suffering a groin injury in the last game. That would be a huge loss for the road team. 10* Under Bulls/Pelicans

10* Over Hawks/Pistons (7:10 ET): Atlanta got back into the win column last night, besting the Knicks 117-111 as a 1.5-point road favorite. Trae Young led the way with 45 points, a nice “recovery” for the Hawks leading scorer after he’d been held to just 21 and 9 in in the team’s previous two contests. But Young is certainly no stranger to crossing the 40-point threshold as he’s now done that three times in the last five games. I expect Young and the Hawks to put up a lot of points again tonight as they face the cellar-dwelling Pistons, a team whose last three games have all gone Over the total. 

Detroit did pick up a win last Thursday in what was the lone NBA game on that particular day’s docket. They scored 134 points on the Magic and that was despite being extremely short-handed. Saddiq Bey exploded in that game for a career-high 51 points. However, since that win, it’s been back to losing in the Motor City. That’s even with leading scorer Cade Cunningham returning to the lineup. Cunningham had 25 points in the Pistons’ 119-115 loss to the short-handed Trail Blazers on Monday. That was a game where Detroit actually closed as a 10-point favorite! They fell behind by as many as 23 before briefly taking the lead, then falling apart down the stretch. 

That Blazers-Pistons game saw some woeful three-point shooting as the teams combined to go just 17 of 63 from beyond the arc. Yet there were still 234 total points scored. That was  owed to NINETY free throws being taken. Won’t be nearly that many here, but I still see an Over. Detroit chose to sit five players against Portland, but looks to be closer to full strength here. Last time these teams met, the total was higher. The Over has hit each of the L4 times Atlanta has been in a B2B and Detroit is 10-5 the Over when the number is 220 or higher. 10* Over Hawks/Pistons

10* Over Bulls/Bucks (8:10 ET): This is a high total, but consider that the last time these teams played (earlier this month), the number was even higher (239.5). That previous meeting did NOT go Over, but did see 230 total points scored (Bucks won 118-112). The Under is actually 2-0 in Bulls/Bucks meetings in 2021-22 with the first being really low-scoring. But for that first meeting, the Bulls did not have Zach LaVine and the two teams combined to shoot an irregularly bad 13 of 69 from three-point range. Going back to February 5th, the fewest total pts scored in any Milwaukee game is 228. I’ll take my chances here with the Over.

Chicago played last night and picked up a key win over Toronto, 113-99. The win kept them in fifth place in the Eastern Conference and also widened the gap over the seventh place Raptors to 2.5 games. This will be the third time this season that the Bulls are playing in a back to back where the first game was home and the second was away. The previous two occasions have seen an average of 237 total points per game scored. The Bulls’ defense has been very shaky over the last month or so and will NOT keep the Bucks in check the way it did Toronto (who shot just 6 of 32 from three-point range).

In fact, the previous two games - when it faced Utah and Phoenix - Chicago gave up 125 and 129 points. Milwaukee has scored 117 or more in every game but one since the All-Star Break. That one time was against Golden State, who is one of the top two defensive teams in the entire NBA. Now the Bucks have their own issues defensively as the last two games have seen them surrender 126 and 138 points. They allowed 38 made threes in the two games. The Over is 13-5 in the Bucks’ last 18 games overall and 9-3 L12 at home. 10* Over Bulls/Bucks

8* Under T’wolves/Mavs (8:40 ET): The Timberwolves sure are “humming” right now. They’re up to sixth in the Western Conference, and have fifth place Dallas in their sights, after winning (and covering) 10 of their last 11 games. Last time out, the T’wolves beat Milwaukee 138-119 as a 3.5-point favorite. That line swung dramatically after it was announced Giannis Antetokounmpo would not be playing for the Bucks. Minnesota took full advantage of the absence, shooting the lights out, including 22 of 47 from three-point range. I don’t see them shooting that well here, against a Mavs team that allows just 102.2 PPG at home.

Dallas returns home tonight after a five-game road trip that started well and ended poorly. The Mavericks won the first three games of that five-game trip, including victories over Boston and Brooklyn. But then they lost at Philadelphia and Charlotte on Friday & Saturday. Perhaps they “ran out of gas,” but the bottom line is they can’t afford many more stumbles with just a 1.5 game lead over the T’wolves and Nuggets. The last thing the Mavs want is to “fall into” the play-in round. 

I think Dallas matches up uniquely well against Minnesota. First off, the Mavs play at the slowest pace in the league, a big reason why they are the #1 Under team at 43-26-2. The Under is 24-10-1 in their home games. Also, the Mavs allow the fewest number of three-point attempts in the league (10.9 per game), which is key because Minnesota takes the most threes per game. The previous two matchups between these teams both saw 216 total points scored and had much lower totals. I believe that the offensive numbers for Minnesota are due to “come back down to Earth” and that’s a big reason why I’m on the Under here. 8* Under T’wolves/Mavericks

8* Under Raptors/Sixers (8:40 ET): I’ve been unafraid to play the Under with the Sixers recently as that’s the way that five of their last seven games have gone. One of the two that didn’t went to overtime. The Under was a winning bet when I took it Friday as the Sixers beat the Mavericks 111-101. As has been discussed before, the defensive efficiency numbers when James Harden and Joel Embiid are on the floor together have been exceptional. Embiid is listed as questionable for tonight, but you obviously can’t disregard the impact that will have at the offensive end. Take the Under with Philly yet again. 

Toronto seemed poised to break into the top six in the Eastern Conference as they were on a 5-0 SU/ATS run heading into Friday night’s game vs. the Lakers. But they lost that one, 128-123 in overtime, and coupled with Cleveland’s B2B wins, the Raptors are now 1.5 games back of the top six. Toronto shot 50% against the Lakers, a number I don’t think they’ll be able to match here. They are shooting 44.4% for the year. 

The Under is 23-12 in Sixers’ home games this season. That includes 8-1 when the O/U is 220 or higher.  While the offensive numbers exploded in the first 5-6 games with Harden, the L5 games have seen Philly average only 111 PPG and that’s with an OT game. This O/U line opened much higher than either of the two previous meetings, both of which did go Over, but would have barely scraped by this number. 8* Under Raptors/Sixers

10* Under Thunder/Magic (6:10 ET): Orlando’s defense has been absolutely atrocious over the L2 games, giving up 150 to Brooklyn and 134 to Detroit. Allowing 150 points is never acceptable, though the Magic fell prey to a 60+ point effort from Kyrie Irving that day. I’m not complaining as I had the Over in the game. Giving up 134 to the Pistons may have actually been worse considering Detroit is second to last in the NBA in scoring. Tonight, the Magic face THE lowest scoring team in the NBA, Oklahoma City. Can the defense turn around? Yes, I think it can! (It certainly can’t get any worse!) Take the Under. 

Each of the Thunder’s last four games have gone Over, but they are banged up heading into Sunday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (ankle) is listed as questionable for tonight and there were SEVEN players that missed Friday’s game vs. Miami, which ended up being OKC’s eighth consecutive loss. Gilgeous-Alexander is the team’s leading scorer and the second AND third leading scorers were out against Miami. I know the injuries haven’t stopped the Thunder from scoring more than usual, but that’s likely to end for a team that averages just 102.8 PPG on the road this season. 

By the way, Orlando is also banged up and one of the lowest scoring teams in the league. The Magic average only 104.5 PPG (28th overall) and were without two starters (Carter, Suggs) vs. the Pistons. I believe that the recent rash of high-scoring games both teams are experiencing is a mirage, mostly due to the opponents. This total is absurdly high considering its two of the three lowest scoring teams in the NBA. They are the bottom two in offensive efficiency. Thunder games average 214.1 PPG for the season while Magic games average 217.0 PPG. The Under is 10-4 in Orlando’s L14 games vs. teams with losing records. 10* Under Thunder/Magic

10* Under Mavericks/76ers (7:10 ET): Since they acquired James Harden, Sixers’ games have become much more high-scoring. With the exception of the game Harden sat (99-82 loss at Miami), every Philly game since the trade has seen at least 224 total points scored. But, you may recall that a few games ago, I was the beneficiary of overtime with an Over bet on the Sixers win against the Magic. Had it not been for OT, that game would have stayed well Under the number. Here, the Sixers are matched up with the top Under team in the NBA. That’s the way I see this one going. 

With Dallas, the Under is 24-10-1 this season when they are at home. The percentage isn’t nearly as skewed when they are on the road, but this team is still tied (with Boston) for the league lead in scoring defense, giving up just 103.7 PPG. They’ve been slightly more stingy over the L5 games, allowing only 102.7 PPG. The only team to top 107 against them in that stretch was Brooklyn on Wednesday, a game the Mavs won at the buzzer 113-111.

Twice in those last five games Dallas has failed to score 100 themselves. The Under is 40-16 their last 56 games as a road underdog, including a 95-92 win at Boston on Sunday. With just 210.4 total PPG scored, Mavs’ games are - on average - the lowest scoring in the NBA this year. This is a high total for them, owed to Philly’s recent results after the Harden trade. But be aware that the Under is 8-1 in Sixers’ home games this season when the total is 220 or higher. Take the Under. 10* Under Mavericks/76ers

8* Under Celtics/Warriors (10:10 ET): This promises to be a good game. You’ve got Boston, who I believe is actually the best team in the Eastern Conference right now, going against a Golden State club that needs little introduction. It’s on ESPN. Everyone likes to see scoring, like what we got with last night’s Over play on Brooklyn-Orlando (which included a 60-point individual effort from Kyrie Irving). But here I expect the scoring to stay low as we’ve got two of the best defensive teams in the league. Take the Under.

Boston has gone 23-7 SU over its last 30 games. They were below .500 when they lost to the Warriors 111-107 back on Dec 17. The turnaround has been engineered, in large part, because of a defense that is tied for tops in the league in efficiency this season. The Celtics are allowing just 103.9 PPG this season on 43.2% shooting. They did lose on Sunday, but you can’t blame the defense as they held the Mavs to only 95 points. The Under is 10-5 this season for Boston when the OU line is 220 or higher. 

Who is Boston tied with for the league’s #1 defensive efficiency rating? That would be the Warriors! Here at home, Golden State gives up just 102.3 PPG on 42.2% shooting. Everyone rightly thinks of the Dubs as an offensive juggernaut, but when they were winning championships, their defensive numbers were always among the best in the league. Draymond Green is now back, which is key for the defense. Now the Warriors have gone out and averaged 124 PPG themselves the L2 games, but don’t expect them to approach that number here. Curry won’t score 47 again like he did vs. Washington Monday. 8* Under Celtics/Warriors

10* Over Nets/Magic (7:10 ET): Yes, Orlando needed OT to get Over the total in their last game, a 116-114 loss to Philadelphia. But I think it’s highly unlikely they hold the Nets to 38.0% shooting like they did with the Sixers on Sunday. This is a high total, but for good reason as not only is Kevin Durant back, but Kyrie Irving will play for Brooklyn. I see the Nets putting up a big number tonight. While I don’t necessarily trust them to cover the spread, I do like the Over here. 

I had the Over in that Philly-Orlando game, so I for one welcomed overtime. The Magic, who have been playing better of late, led by 12 at halftime and were still up 10 in the 4Q. The key to building that lead was the 76ers shooting just 33% in the 1H. Again, I can’t see Brooklyn shooting that poorly tonight. The Nets have shot 50% or better from the floor in four of their last six games, a stretch that coincides with Durant coming back. The L3 games with Durant & Irving in the lineup have all seen the Nets score at least 120 points. 

Both Durant and Irving have turned in 50+ point performances recently. On Sunday, with Irving (unvaccinated) out of the lineup, the Nets won 110-107 over the Knicks with Durant scoring 53. The team shot just 20.7% from three-point range with non-Durant players combining to go 2 of 16. I expect much better shooting tonight. With Brooklyn likely to pile up the points here, we shouldn’t need a huge number from Orlando. Fortunately for them, the Nets are giving up 111.7 PPG this season. The Over is 6-2-1 in the Nets’ L9 road games. 10* Over Nets/Magic

10* Under Nuggets/Sixers (7:40 ET): Also going with the Under in this matchup. Reason being I was a little lucky to cash the Over in last night’s Sixers game, as it went to OT tied at 104. The O/U line was 222.5, so the Over was a loser in regulation, but the 22 points we got in the added five minutes were the difference maker. Philly’s previous three games had all stayed Under and while one of those was with Harden out of the lineup, they’ve generally played solid defense (except in the loss to Brooklyn). 

Denver needs to get back to playing better defense after allowing an average of 118.8 points over its last five games. I believe they will get back to doing so tonight. For the year, they are giving up 106.4 PPG, so it’s a big difference from what we’ve been seeing lately. Philadelphia has also allowed more points than usual over its last five games. 

The 76ers have posted an outstanding defensive efficiency rating when Harden and Joel Embiid are on the court together. The number had even rivaled the Celtics, the league-leaders in defensive efficiency. Denver won’t shoot 55% again like it did on Saturday, even though I believe they cover the spread here. 10* Under Nuggets/Sixers

10* Over Sixers/Magic (6:10 ET): Two teams off surprising results meet Sunday in Orlando. The Sixers have had two days to recover from their 29-point beatdown at the hands of Brooklyn. That was the first time they lost with James Harden in the lineup. The fact that the loss came at the hands of Harden’s former team made it a bit more painful. Orlando, meanwhile, turned in a shocking performance on Friday, beating the T’wolves 118-110 as a 7.5-point home underdog. They were my 10* Game of the Week! 

That was the Magic’s second straight upset win as well as their fifth victory in the last eight games overall, so Philly must take this game seriously. I think they will. Consider that in the first five games with Harden in the lineup, the Sixers scored no fewer than 121 points. The last two matchups vs. Orlando have seen them score 116 and 123 points and that was before Harden came over. The Sixers shot just 32.3% against the Nets, a number they will easily eclipse here. They are 5-0 Over on Sundays this season. 

Orlando can only hope for the kind of offensive day against Philly that Brooklyn enjoyed. The Sixers gave up 40 points in the first quarter and 72 in the first half. The Magic did make 15 of 30 three-point attempts over the final three quarters against Minnesota. Their last five games have all stayed Under, but I think there’s reason to be concerned over how the Magic defense will hold up here. I do think they score enough to help send this one OVER the total. 10* Over Sixers/Magic

8* Under Knicks/Suns (10:10 ET): Two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum are meeting Friday night on ESPN. The Suns have firmly established themselves as the best team in the NBA right now. They are 50-12 on the season and have won 20 of their last 23 games. Following a RARE two-game losing skid (lost to New Orleans and Utah), the Suns bounced back in a major way on Wednesday with a 30-point beatdown of Portland. They are surprisingly short favorites tonight against the moribund Knicks, but there’s a reason for that (more on it in a moment).

The Knicks have lost six in a row and 10 of their last 11. They are 0-6 ATS L6 and 1-10 ATS L11 as well. Even making the play-in round now seems like a bit of a stretch as the Knicks trail the 10th place Hawks by five games. Playing better defense would help. Over its last five games, NY has given up an average of 120.2 PPG. All five games have gone Over the total. This is a team that normally allows “just” 107.3 PPG. But, as alluded to earlier, they are catching a major break tonight. 

That major break is that the Suns won’t have Chris Paul or Devin Booker aka “their starting backcourt.” I know that they just dropped 120 on Portland without the pair, but it seems unlikely that they could repeat that performance here. Note that tonight’s total is about 10 points higher compared to the season’s first Knicks-Suns matchup, which had both Paul and Booker in the lineup! I’m less concerned about how the absences will affect Phoenix’s defense, which is #3 in the NBA in efficiency. Also, the Knicks are 27th in pace. 8* Under Knicks/Suns

10* Over Clippers/Rockets (8:10 ET): Second time in a row these teams are facing off, which is probably just fine as far as the Clippers are concerned, considering that the Rockets have now lost nine in a row and 13 of their last 14. It was a low-scoring game when they met on Sunday, 99-98, with the Clippers rallying to win in the 4Q. The Under was an easy winner there (by more than 30 points!), but you should expect a lot more points from tonight’s rematch and I’m calling for an Over. 

Houston games average the most possessions in the league as they play at the fastest tempo. More possessions (theoretically) should lead to more points. The thing is neither team shot all that well on Sunday as the Clippers made only 44.2% of their attempts while the Rockets were down at 38.0%. The teams did combine for 76 three-point attempts and there’s no reason to believe we won’t see a similar number tonight. For the year, the Clippers and Rockets combine to average 73 3PA per game. 

The Rockets also have the league’s worst defensive efficiency rating, not a surprise seeing as how they are allowing 117.8 PPG, easily the most in the NBA. Sunday marked the first time since November 6th that they held an opponent below 100 points. Even so, Houston has still allowed 123.8 PPG over its last five contests. Los Angeles is a lock to score a lot more here and Houston should be more effective inside the arc than they were on Sunday (just 18 of 50 on 2PA). It’s a big increase in points that the oddsmakers are asking for, but then again the Over is 18-9 in Rockets’ home games. 10* Over Clippers/Rockets

10* Under Mavs/Jazz (9:10 ET): Dallas was the top Under team in the league over the first half (of the season) with a 36-21-2 mark. Now, the Under has been hitting a lot more regularly in their HOME games (22-8-1), but what is interesting about that is the average total number of points per game scored in Dallas home games (207.8) is not all that different from what we see on the road (212.3). Facing a Utah team that has gone Under in six of seven games in February, I expect a low-scoring first game post-All Star Break Friday night. 

The way things stand right now in the Western Conference, this would be a first round playoff matchup. Utah is 4th, though I believe there’s a good chance they will catch and pass Memphis for 3rd by the end of the regular season. The Jazz are one of the NBA’s highest scoring teams (113.7 PPG), however their defense has been outstanding this month with 106 being the most points allowed in any game. Dallas is a solid 5th in the West, also having won six of its last seven games. 

These teams have met just one time so far this season and it was on X-Mas with Utah winning a high-scoring game, 120-116 here in Salt Lake City. The Mavs played that game short-handed. Tonight, look for them to control the tempo (they place at the slowest pace in the league) in order to limit the damage Utah can do offensively. Again, this is the first game back after a long All-Star Break and shooters could be rusty on both sides. 10* Under Mavs/Jazz

8* Over Clippers/Suns (10:00 ET): So the Clippers sure proved me wrong last night, defeating the Warriors as six-point underdogs (at home), 119-104. They shot an incredible 56.5% from the floor against the league’s most efficient defense. While they probably aren’t reaching those heights tonight, in a tough spot vs. Phoenix, any offensive regression should be “canceled out” by some defensive regression, this being the second night of a back to back. Stopping the Suns, who have topped 130 points in each of the last two games, will be tough. 

Steph Curry had his way with this Clippers defense in the first half last night, scoring 26 points. Curry and his teammates then cooled off considerably in the second half. The rest of the team shot just 41.2%. I don’t think the Clippers will be able to do that to the Suns. While their defense has improved somewhat, LA still allowed both Milwaukee and Memphis to score more than 130 recently. Phoenix has the second most efficient offense in all of basketball.

In each of these teams’ last seven games, the Over is 6-1. Again, with tired legs, defending the Suns is likely going to be a problem tonight for the Clippers. Keep in mind that right before beating the Warriors, they allowed Luka Doncic to score nearly 100 points by himself in two games against them. On the flip side, with the All-Star Break approaching, we may not see the same defensive intensity here from the Suns. The Clippers have scored at least 109 points in 10 of their last 11 games. That would be more than enough for another Over here. 8* Over Clippers/Suns

10* Under Hornets/T’wolves (8:10 ET): I realize that “all signs” point to the Over in this matchup, but it’s the highest O/U line of the season in the NBA and I’m going Under. Minnesota has been on a simply incredible run of Overs lately with that particular bet hitting in 16 of their last 19 contests. Eventually though, that run must subside. Why not at home where their games “only” average 214.4 PPG, which is well down from their overall season average of 225.0 PPG? 

While Minnesota has been surging as of late, Charlotte is heading in the opposite direction. They have dropped seven of eight and in the last game trailed 74-43 at the half. That was at home. The Hornets did defeat the T’wolves back in November, 133-115, but they shot a blistering 55.7% from the floor in that game, including 23 of 40 from three-point range. Those numbers will not be repeated tonight. Before their last two games both went Over, Charlotte was on a run of six straight Unders. The Under is also 6-0 this year when they are on exactly two days’ rest (as they are here). 

As I mentioned, Charlotte has lost seven of eight. In the one win, which was against the moribund Pistons, they scored 141 and shot 55.7%. But in the seven losses, they have shot no better than 42.6% from the floor. I get why this total is so high, but again, it’s the highest O/U line for any NBA game this season and very reactionary towards recent results. Even giving up the most PPG in the Eastern Conference, Hornets’ games “only” average 228.4 PPG. There’s value here on the Under. 10* Under Hornets/T’wolves

10* Under Raptors/Thunder (8:10 ET): For the sixth straight time, Toronto came out ahead a winner on Monday. I had them as they won 116-101 in Charlotte. It was the second time in three games I threw my money behind the Raptors, having previously done so when they beat Chicago last Thursday. Turns out I could have backed them in any of these six games, as not only are they 6-0 straight up, but also 6-0 ATS. They’ve got to like their chances of extending the win streak to seven games as they face OKC tonight. 

This spread is a little “rich for my blood,” however there’s also no chance I back the Thunder without their leading scorer (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) against a red hot team like the Raptors. Oklahoma City is last in the league in scoring (101.0 PPG) and 29th in offensive efficiency. In three of the last five games and 6 of the last 10, they have not broken 100 points. Keep in mind that two of those games went to overtime, so only once in that 10-game stretch have they topped 103 in regulation. 

I don’t see OKC doing much offensively in this game either. The one positive for them though is that they have held their last five opponents to an average of 102.2 PPG. Toronto’s offensive numbers have gone “through the roof” during the win streak, but two of the wins required overtime. A 124-120 win in Miami went to triple overtime. The last two games have been vs. Atlanta and Charlotte, two of the worst defensive teams in the league. I sense we’re in for a fairly low-scoring battle here. 10* Under Raptors/Thunder

10* Under Celtics/Magic (6:10 ET): Orlando, who has the worst record in the league, has seen a recent surge in scoring, both at the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. The team’s last five games have all gone Over the total. They’ve allowed an average of 118 PPG during this stretch, including 135 yesterday to Memphis, but it’s also been five straight games of them scoring 110+ points, which is rather abnormal for a team that’s 28th in the league at 103.3 PPG for the season. 

So what I’m saying is you should expect the Magic to start scoring less. Let’s start here, the second game of a back to back, a situation that sees them average only 100 PPG. They are facing a Boston team that’s won four in a row and six of its last seven. In five of those six wins, the Celtics have held their opponent below the century mark. In a previous visit to Orlando, which was pretty early in the season, the Celtics came here and won 92-79, holding the Magic to 32.1% shooting, including 9 of 43 from three-point range.

Boston’s four-game win streak is a season-high as they are now in 8th place in the Eastern Conference. They are actually tied for the fourth best point differential, so I’d expect them to continue climbing. This is a bit of a “tricky” spot though, as it’s an easy game to overlook with Brooklyn on deck. The Under is 4-0 in the Celtics’ last four road games as well as 6-1 their L7 games overall. It’s 7-0 when they are on the road and facing an opponent with a home winning percentage of less than .400. 10* Under Celtics/Magic

10* Under Bulls/Pacers (7:10 ET): So the Bulls have now gone Over in four straight games. The Pacers have gone Over in six straight games. Looking at these recent results, for both teams, there’s a clear surge in the number of points being scored & allowed vs. season averages. For a frame of reference, Bulls’ games have averaged 221.1 total points this season. That number has jumped to 240.6 over the L5 games! For Indiana, the season average is 220 pts on the nose, but 243.8 over the L5 games. 

Now I played against Chicago last night and that proved to be a winning move. They lost 127-120 up in Toronto, in OT, a brutal result as the Raptors tied the game with 0.7 seconds remaining in regulation. The Bulls did trail most of the game (by as many as 11). Obviously, the game going to overtime skews the final point total. The previous four games all saw Chicago shoot 51% or better from the floor. Can’t see that continuing. They were down to 47.8% last night. Zach LaVine, the team’s second leading scorer (24.7 PPG) could be rested tonight. The team is already without Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. 

The Pacers also have a number of players out, including Sabonis, Brogden, Turner, Bitadze and Brissett. So I’m not sure where the points will come from tonight. As of this writing, this is the highest O/U line for any Indiana game this season. They are 3-0 Under against the Bulls so far in 2021-22 and none of the three games saw more than 218 total points scored. This number is an overreaction to the abnormal amount of scoring we’ve seen from both teams recently. 10* Under Bulls/Pacers

8* Under Heat/Spurs (8:40 ET): Miami has now gone Over in six consecutive contests following Tuesday’s 110-106 loss up in Toronto. This feels like a streak that’s “due” to end and I also can’t see San Antonio shooting as well as it did (55%) two nights ago vs. Golden State. Therefore, it certainly seems as if we’ve got the “perfect recipe” for an Under tonight in the Alamo. 

The Spurs must be kicking themselves after letting ANOTHER lead slip away against the Warriors. Few teams have been less “clutch” than SA this season and what was especially painful about blowing the 17-point lead and losing Tuesday was that the Warriors were without all their star players (No Curry, Thompson, Green or Wiggins). And they (SA) shot 55% from the floor and made 16 threes! The problem was letting the Dubs sink 20 threes. I just see things being much more low-scoring here tonight. 

Part of that is Miami not being at full-strength either. The Heat have lost three in a row and averaged only 99 PPG in the last two. Kyle Lowry is expected to miss his 10th straight game tonight and Jimmy Butler is questionable as well. For the Spurs, Dejounte Murray (best player) is listed as questionable. So some key contributors MAY be sitting this one out. Regardless, look for the Heat to get back to playing defense and their parade of Overs to end. 8* Under Heat/Spurs

8* Under Magic/Pacers (7:10 ET): This is the second game of a back to back for Orlando, who were 126-115 losers in Chicago Tuesday night. They shot well, particularly in the first half where they made 56% of their field goal attempts. The problem is the Magic couldn’t play any defense; they allowed the Bulls to score 103 points in the first three quarters, so even a late fourth quarter rally proved futile. 

Defending Indiana should be a bit easier. As many as seven Pacers could sit this one out. Five definitely will, including leading scorer and rebounder Domantas Sabonis, who entered health and safety protocol on Monday. In addition to Sabonis, Indiana is without Brogdon, McConnell, Turner and Warren. They did score 122 pts in a win over the Clippers on Monday, but I just can’t see that happening again with all these notable absences. Monday saw the Pacers shoot 52.6% from the floor, their highest percentage in any game in over three weeks. They were also 14 of 29 from three-point range, also unlikely to be repeated here. 

Indiana, like Orlando, would like to see its defensive numbers start to improve. That should happen tonight. Over their last five games, all of which have gone Over, the Pacers have given up 126.6 PPG. This is well above their season average of 110.8 PPG. Tonight, they face a Magic team that has been scoring at a 112.6 PPG clip its last five contests, but that is well above their own season average of 102.8 PPG. For the year, Orlando is 28th in the league in scoring. The Under is 6-1 the last seven times they’ve played without rest and they average just 98.1 PPG in that situation. 8* Under Magic/Pacers

10* Under Nuggets/T’Wolves (8:10 ET): Both of these teams have been scoring a lot more than usual of late. The result of that has been plenty of Overs. Denver is 9-1 Over in its last 10 games, the lone Under taking place in a matchup with the offensively inept Pistons. Minnesota has seen the Over hit in seven of its last eight games. But I can’t see the Nuggets shooting 60% from the field again, as they did in Sunday’s 136-100 beatdown of Milwaukee. Nor can I see the T’wolves shooting 55% again, as they did in their own blowout victory on Sunday (126-106 over Utah). Time for an Under here. 

When these teams met in Denver back in December, the final score ended up being a 124-107 road win for the Timberwolves. They shot 51.1% from the floor and made 23 three-pointers. Don’t see that being duplicated tonight. Interesting to note that the O/U line is several points higher than it was for the last meeting (224.5). This despite Nikola Jokic and Minnesota’s third leading scorer, D’Angelo Russell, both being listed as questionable for tonight’s game. 

The key for the T’wolves tonight could be their defense. They are simply much more stingy at home where they allow only 104.8 PPG as opposed to 116.0 on the road. That’s a massive difference. With some key players questionable and both teams likely to cool off from behind the arc, look for this one to stay Under the total. The Under is also 8-3 in Denver’s last 11 road games. 10* Under Nuggets/T’Wolves

10* Over Celtics/Pelicans (7:05 ET): Both of these teams played last night and did not shoot the ball well. So they’re also both coming off a loss. Boston went down by a score of 108-92 at the hands of Atlanta. The Celtics missed 12 of their first 13 three-point attempts in the game and finished 9 of 34 from behind the arc. They also missed 12 of their first 16 field goal attempts in the fourth quarter. New Orleans was a horrendous 5 of 34 from three-point range, and 38.9% overall, in its 116-105 home loss to Denver on Friday. 

So what I am saying, right off the bat here, is that you should anticipate BOTH teams shooting better tonight than they did on Friday. Boston had just scored 128 in its last win and that was without even shooting all that well. It’s a three-game Under run coming into tonight, but that’s also because the Celtics’ two previous opponents (before Atlanta) were just horrific shooting the ball. I don’t think they can count on holding New Orleans to 35% or less as they did to Washington and Sacramento. 

New Orleans’ last three games have all gone Over with them allowing 113, 117 and 116 points. For the year, they are giving up 110 PPG. So there’s more reason to expect Boston is going to have a bounce back game offensively. As for the Pelicans, they could be getting at least one of their top two scorers back. Regardless, these teams will combine to shoot MUCH better than 31% from three-point range, which was the number they were at when they met in Boston earlier this month. 10* Over Celtics/Pelicans

10* Over Knicks/Bucks (10:10 ET): Milwaukee had a three-game win streak halted two nights ago in Cleveland. They lost 115-99 while shooting just 28% from three-point range (9 of 32). Part of the reason for that poor shooting was because the Bucks were without two of their top shooters, Grayson Allen and Wesley Matthews. Both could be back in the lineup Friday (Allen definitely will) when the team returns home to face the Knicks. The Bucks have won three straight at home and two of the wins saw them score 126 and 133 points. They are averaging 112.4 PPG at home for the season. 

So expect a return to form, at least on offense, for Milwaukee here tonight. As for the Knicks, they’ve struggled with their shooting recently, failing to make more than 43% from the field in any of the last four games. Offense has been a struggle all season for New York, but I expect this game will go a little better than most of the recent ones, and that’s because Milwaukee has allowed 114+ points in four of its last five games. 

This is the fourth head to head meeting between these two teams this season. The first three all stayed Under, but were very close to the number as the games finished with 211, 212 and 209 total points. We haven’t seen good shooting from either side in any of the prior meetings, which is odd. Looking at this number, all we basically need is the Bucks (111.8 PPG) and Knicks (103.8) to hit their season averages. I don’t think that’s asking for too much? The Over is 9-3 L12 times the Bucks have been home favorites. 10* Over Knicks/Bucks

10* Over Mavericks/Warriors (10:05 ET): While both of these teams have been very stout defensively, and the Warriors have really been that way all season, I’ve got to think tonight’s game on ESPN goes Over the oddsmakers’ total. For one, Dallas is on a preposterous run of Unders (eight straight, 13 of last 14 games) right now. Also, I think that Golden State, Steph Curry specifically, is due to break out of a shooting slump. This could end up as the lowest O/U line for any GSW game since 12/18, which went Over. 

Now there is no denying how good Dallas has been defensively during this 13-1 Under stretch. The most points they’ve given up in any of those games is 109 and only three teams have been able to top 100. In today’s NBA, that’s quite shocking. But eventually, you’re going to have a bad game defensively. The fact the Warriors have been struggling to make shots over the same stretch the Mavs have turned it on defensively tells me a “perfect storm” may be in order for tonight’s game. 

Even if both Klay Thompson and Draymond Green both sit out, the Warriors will top the 94 points they scored in the win over the Jazz Sunday. Steph Curry has been in a mini-slump, including 13 points on 5 of 20 shooting last game. He can still go off any night though. The Warriors scored just 11 points in the 4Q Sunday. They were on track for well over 100 before that. Holding the Jazz to 38% shooting was what allowed them to hold on for the two-point win. Dallas will shoot better than recent Warriors’ opponents have. 10* Over Mavericks/Warriors

8* Under Nuggets/Pistons (7:10 ET): These teams just met Sunday with Denver winning 117-111. It came down to the final minute, which had to be less than thrilling if you’re a Nuggets’ fan as they led by as many as 16 in the fourth quarter. What should have Denver “breathing easier” for tonight’s rematch is that it is HIGHLY unlikely the Pistons will shoot 56% again from the floor. The Pistons are last in the East in scoring (102.0 PPG) and shoot just 42.1% for the year. Only OKC is worse offensively. 

Though they were able to rally and tie the game up in the final minute, what killed the Pistons on Sunday were 22 turnovers, which were converted into 28 points by the Nuggets. They may not shoot as well tonight, but the home team should play a “cleaner” game. Defensively, they should be much better as well. While Detroit is allowing 115.1 PPG on the road, it’s a much more reasonable number (107.5) at home. The Under has also hit in the team’s last eight Tuesday games. 

Denver is on a six-game Over run, where scoring has been way up from normal. They’ve allowed four straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the floor. That can’t keep happening. As detailed above, this is an ideal opponent for the defensive woes to cease. I will not be the least bit surprised if the Nuggets win a close, low-scoring game here. 8* Under Nuggets/Pistons

8* Over Hornets/Raptors (7:10 ET): Both teams lost on Sunday, due in no small part to bad shooting. Charlotte, playing without Gordon Hayward, fell 113-91 at home to Atlanta. That was only the second loss in the last nine games for the Hornets though. I expect them to bounce back offensively in this one, especially after going a dreadful 4 of 36 from three-point range vs. the Hawks. They missed 18 straight attempts from behind the arc and finished the game at just 39.1% overall from the field. 

Toronto played a horrible game against Portland, falling behind by 34 in the first half. This was at home! While I am predicting Charlotte to bounce back offensively in this one, the same can be said for the Raptors. They were held under 40% shooting by the Blazers. Key to their projected improvement here is the fact Charlotte is dead last in the Eastern Conference in scoring defense, giving up 114.2 points per game. The Hornets’ defense has improved some over the last month, but the YTD numbers speak for themselves. 

The total was very high (233.5) for the Charlotte-Atlanta game Sunday. So it looks like we’re getting some solid value with this number. The Under is 7-1 in Charlotte’s last eight games and 12-3 L15 (4-0 L4). To me, that says things are “due” to go the “other way.” Same for Toronto, who had gone Under in seven straight before Sunday’s Over vs. Portland. Prior to the seven-game Under run, the Raptors had gone Over in 10 straight games. They are streaky when it comes to totals! 8* Over Hornets/Raptor

10* Over Grizzlies/Mavericks (7:35 ET): While the trends are firmly on the side of the Under here, I’m looking to “buck” convention as two of the hottest teams in the league should find a way to go Over here. Yes, Dallas has gone Under in seven straight games, the last five of which have been here at home. That brings the O/U record for the year to 17-5 Under at home, which is pretty crazy. All three previous Grizzlies-Mavs meetings this year have gone Under. But expect this one to go differently. 

The last time these teams met was earlier this month and the Mavs surprisingly ran away with a 112-85 road win. That’s just one of two games that Memphis has lost since Christmas. Part of the reason the Grizzlies lost is because they shot just 38.2% from the floor, including 22% from behind the arc. They actually led 55-50 at the half but were held to only 30 points over the final two quarters! Even though it ended up being a blowout victory, even Dallas didn’t shoot well from three in that game. The two teams combined to go 15 of 63 from behind the arc!

Expect much more precise three-point shooting in this one. Memphis is a team that averages 112.1 PPG and they just scored 122 in their last game, despite being without their second and third leading scorers. Ja Morant went for 38. Dallas is off a disappointing 109-101 loss to Phoenix where they scored only 19 points in the 4Q. Luka Doncic expects to play Sunday after leaving the last game with a neck injury. That’s key. 10* Over Grizzlies/Mavericks

10* Over Suns/Mavericks (7:35 ET): Two hot teams meet in Dallas, on TNT, tonight. The Suns are looking to complete a perfect 5-0 road trip while the Mavs have won three straight at home and four in a row overall. While Dallas has been playing excellent defense of late, evident by the fact the Under has hit in 11 of their last 12 games including each of the last six, keeping Phoenix in check will be a tall order. 

Over their last three games, the league-leading Suns have won by an average of 19.7 points. Devin Booker is leading the charge by scoring 37.7 PPG in those L3 wins and he turned in a season-high 48 in the 121-107 win at San Antonio on Monday. Do note that Phoenix trailed going into the 4Q of that last game, but was able to hold the Spurs to just 16 points over the last 12 minutes. Don’t think they’re going to be able to do that again, although from the Suns’ perspective it may not matter if they continue scoring the way they have. They are averaging 112.5 PPG for the season. 

Dallas held Toronto to 38.5% shooting, including 8 of 32 from three-point range, in the last game. There’s virtually no shot they can keep the Suns in check to that degree. It's the combination of defensive efficiency and slow pace that has led to the recent rash of Unders for the Mavs, but eventually one of these games is going to go Over and I think they’ve got the right “dance partner” tonight. Dallas has also shot VERY poorly from three-point range in its last five games, which I feel is going to change. 10* Over Suns/Mavericks

10* Over Suns/Pacers (7:05 ET): What a tough season it’s been for Indiana. They are 15-27 SU and have just one win (against Houston) since X-Mas. I don’t think the team has played all that poorly. They own a better YTD point differential than 7th place Charlotte, but have been doomed by an awful 1-10 record in games decided by three points or less. Things weren’t close on Wednesday though as the Pacers shot a season-worst 19.4% (7 of 36) from three-point range. Only one player (Justin Holliday) made more than one three in the 119-100 loss to the Celtics. 

Phoenix wasn’t much better offensively in its last game, though they did win 99-95 in Toronto, a game that had no fans present. All five Suns starters finished in double figures, but the reserves combined to score just 21 points. You’ve got to expect more than that here, right? The Suns average 111.8 PPG, but have been below that number each of their last three games. As is the case with Indiana, I’m expecting a bit of an offensive breakthrough by the road team in this Friday night matchup. 

The Pacers average 11 made three-pointers per game, so that’s an area where I expect them to improve quite a bit from the last time. The Suns held the Raptors to 21.6% from behind the arc, so it works both ways. Not only is Indiana set to improve, Phoenix is set to regress defensively. Indiana actually averages 111.5 PPG at home. But at the same time, I can’t see the Suns not improving their offensive numbers as well. I think both teams are reaching 110 points in this game. That means Over is the call. 10* Over Suns/Pacers

8* Over Jazz/Pistons (7:10 ET): When I first saw this number, I assumed that it was the highest O/U line for any Pistons game this season. But it’s not even their highest of the month. Games against Milwaukee and Charlotte both had higher O/U lines and the one vs. Charlotte is worth mentioning here as the Pistons gave up 140 points in the game. In their most recent game, a 97-92 win over Orlando, the Pistons allowed just 33.7% shooting. But there’s no way we’re going to see anything close to that tonight as they face the team with the most efficient offense in the NBA. 

Utah has dropped back to back games, the latest being a 125-113 loss to Indiana where they let the Pacers hit 55% from the floor. I’ll come back to that in a moment. But know that the last time the Jazz dropped B2B games, they came back to win six in a row. Only Golden State and Phoenix (both 30-9 SU) have better records than the Jazz this year and only the Warriors have a better YTD point differential. As I stated earlier, no team averages more points per possession. Utah also averages a league-best 115.7 points per game. 

But the Jazz are missing their best defender right now, Rudy Gobert, and that played a significant role in them allowing the Pacers to shoot 55% from the floor. I know that Detroit is probably not capable of shooting THAT well, but I do expect them to easily break 100 points in this game. In the first three games after the New Year, the Pistons topped 110 each time. Eight of Utah’s last 10 games have seen at least 225 total points scored. 8* Over Jazz/Pistons

10* Over T’wolves/Rockets (7:10 ET): Minnesota is now fully healthy and on Friday I saw first-hand what they were capable of doing when that’s the case. The T’wolves crushed OKC 135-105 as a relatively short road favorite. That was a mistake by me to doubt this team’s ability to go on the road and beat one of the weakest teams in the league. (In my defense, it was just the second time all season that the T’wolves were road favorites). The situation now repeats itself as they are in Houston on Sunday. 

I’m obviously not going to try and fade the T’wolves again here. The trio of Towns, Russell and Edwards combined for 70 points (on 27 of 39 shooting) Friday. It was just the second game back (from health and safety protocol) for Towns and Russell and clearly this is a playoff caliber team when those two are in the lineup (at least good enough for the play-in round). While Minnesota may not score 135 points again tonight, they should still put up a big number against a Houston team that’s giving up an average of 123.6 points its last five games and 115.9 for the season. The T’wolves’ overall shooting for the season (43.5%) is certainly due to improve. 

The Over is 4-1 in the Rockets’ last five games and that’s despite them shooting only 43.7% themselves. They are putting up 110 PPG when at home this season. Their last game (scored 106 points) was their lowest scoring effort since 12/27 and they were just 12 of 43 from three-point range. So, better offense tonight, coupled with the usual defense from the Rockets should lead to an easy Over. 10* Over T’wolves/Rockets

10* Under Spurs/76ers (7:10 ET): Philadelphia, who ended up being the top seed in the Eastern Conference last season, has started to get going of late with five consecutive victories. This win streak has them up to fifth in the Eastern Conference, two games back of 4th place and five games back of the top spot. The Sixers have certainly been scoring more (118.0 PPG) during their win streak, but a curious thing about this team is how much WORSE they’ve been at home (7-8 SU) compared to the road (14-8 SU). The Under is 11-4 in all Sixers’ home games and that’s the trend I’ll follow here. 

San Antonio is a team that I feel is better than its 15-22 SU record. They have a positive point differential on the year, which is something that only five other teams in the Western Conference (the top five) can say right now. But before a 99-97 win in Boston the other night, the Spurs had dropped four straight with three of those defeats coming on the road. Like a lot of teams, the Spurs are short-handed as a number of players remain in health & safety protocol. They did have four starters finish in double figures against Boston, but even so they still couldn’t score 100 points. Four of the last five games have seen them fail to top 105 points. 

When it comes to how the teams should perform at the offensive end tonight, I’m just not expecting big nights from either side. Philadelphia is unlikely to be as prolific here as they were vs. Orlando on Wednesday when they shot above 50% overall and 42% from three-point range. So expect a drop in scoring for them. Same with San Antonio as four starters scoring in double figures again may not be realistic. The Under is 13-6-2 in the Spurs’ previous 21 road games. 10* Under Spurs/76ers

8* Under Celtics/Knicks (7:35 ET): Neither of these teams can be happy with their current record. Both are 18-20 SU, which is tied for 10th place in the Eastern Conference. Of the two, I’d say the Celtics are more likely to move up, but that’s no guarantee. Boston lost last night, 99-97 to San Antonio, thus ending a two-game win streak. The game came down to the final play, which was a missed layup by Jaylen Brown after a steal. The Celtics are 6-2 Under this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. 

The Knicks are coming off a win Tuesday night as they beat the Pacers 104-94. Over the last five games, the team has averaged only 95.8 PPG. On the bright side, they’ve only allowed 96.4. There had been three consecutive games where neither the Knicks nor their opponent scored 100 points. That was before a 120-105 loss to Toronto on Sunday. Tuesday saw Julius Randle return to the lineup after missing several games due to COVID and he scored 30 points. RJ Barrett went for 32, but the rest of the team combined for only 42 points.

This will be the third meeting of the season between these teams. The first two both went Over, but one was a double overtime game. Neither team shoots all that well with Boston at 43.9% on the road and New York at 43.6% overall for the year. I don’t think NY can count on Randle and Barrett both going for 30+ again while Boston’s Jayson Tatum admitted to still being “rusty” after catching COVID for a second time. The Knicks are 5-1 Under their L6 games while the Celtics are 6-2 Under in their L8. Look for those trends to continue here. 8* Under Celtics/Knicks

8* Under Raptors/Bucks (8:05 ET): So this is obviously a case of “bucking” the recent trend that has seen Toronto go Over in each of its last eight games. That’s a pretty long streak and during that time the team has exceeded its season average in points scored (107.6 per game) seven times. The Raptors are off B2B 120+ point efforts in beating the Knicks and Spurs, but I think they’ll find it much harder to score tonight when they face a Milwaukee team that is allowing just 42.5% shooting here at home. 

Now the Bucks have also been doing a lot of scoring themselves recently. They scored 136 pts in B2B games last week. But that was followed with a shocking loss to the Pistons last time out, 115-106, as a 16-point home favorite. The Bucks’ recent schedule has been incredibly “soft” with two games against the Magic, one against the Pelicans and then the Pistons. Lack of defense has been a bit troubling for the defending NBA Champs recently. They’ve allowed 110+ points in five straight games. I say that streak ends tonight. 

Toronto’s scoring is clearly due to subside while Milwaukee’s defense is set to improve. But what kind of defensive effort should we expect from the Raptors tonight? Well, over the last three games, they’ve held opponents to an average of just 105.7 PPG. The Bucks are coming off their second worst three-point shooting performance of the season. They made only 11 of 46 attempts from beyond the arc against the Pistons. Also note that when these teams faced off in Toronto last month, the final score was 97-93 (Raptors won). 8* Under Raptors/Bucks

10* Under Hornets/Wizards (7:05 ET): These are two teams I could see sliding down the standings before we hit the All-Star Break. Washington had been 6-0 in games decided by three points or less this season. That was before losing at the buzzer against Chicago on Saturday, 120-119. The kind of luck the Wizards were having in close games is something that is certainly hard to sustain over the course of the season. This team actually has the third worst point differential in the entire Eastern Conference entering Monday. 

Charlotte just got blasted at home last night, 133-99 by Phoenix. That ended a three-game SU win streak and four-game ATS win streak. But it did make it five straight Unders for the Hornets. Because they allow the most points per game in the entire NBA, Hornets’ totals are consistently among the highest in the league. I think this affords us a nice opportunity to start taking some Unders as scoring is down league-wide this season and the trend figures to hit Charlotte sooner than later. 

The Hornets only shot 25% from three-point range last night. Any gains in that area tonight will be nullified by certainly allowing fewer points to the Wizards than what they gave up against the Suns. Washington was without seven players for its last game, so I was surprised to see them score so many points. They play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Charlotte is only averaging 104.9 points in division games this season and the Under is a perfect 5-0 in the L5 meetings between these teams (2-0 this season). 10* Under Hornets/Wizards

10* Under T’Wolves/Lakers (9:35 ET): The Lakers finally played a good game the other night, beating the Blazers 139-106. I don’t think they’ll shoot 55.3% from the floor again though, or even close to that tonight against the T’wolves. LeBron James had a season-high 43 points in that win on New Year’s Eve. It should be noted that three days earlier the team shot better than 50% and topped 130 points in a win over the Rockets. The next game they scored 99 in a loss to the Grizzlies. 

So we’ve got one team (the Lakers) with a virtual guaranteed drop in offensive production from its last game. Then you’ve got Minnesota, who is having COVID issues. Their best player, Karl-Anthony Towns, is among those that are currently out of the lineup. The T’wolves have lost four of five since the COVID issues reared their ugly head and in the last two games they have averaged only 99 points. Since the start of December, there has been only one game where Minnesota shot better than 47% from the floor. That’s remarkable. 

There have been two previous meetings between these teams this season. Both went Under. Surprisingly, Minnesota was the winner each time, holding the Lakers to 92 and 83 points. The T’wolves have gone Under in 10 of their 13 games this season against teams that have losing records. The Lakers are 18-19 on the year. This seems like a high total, especially with the Lakers 12-2 Under following a SU win by 10 or more points. 10* Under T’wolves/Lakers

10* Under Clippers/Raptors (7:30 ET): While overall shooting may not be as woeful here as it was in the Clippers’ last game, I’m not exactly anticipating a lot of offensive firepower when LA heads “north of the border” to face Toronto on New Year’s Eve. The Clippers won 91-82 on Wednesday, mostly thanks to Boston going an unthinkable 4 of 42 from three-point range. They won’t be that “lucky” at the defensive end tonight, but playing short-handed (no George or Leonard), the Clips aren’t likely to do much scoring themselves here. 

Toronto is getting healthier as the number of players on the COVID-19 list has dropped from ten to two. But they are off two straight losses, one a complete embarrassment (144-109 to the Cavs) when the Raptors were extremely short-handed and then 114-109 to the 76ers on Tuesday. They shot 42.7% from the field in those two losses, which isn’t all that atypical. For the season, the Raptors have a 43.9 FG% and they are bottom five in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. 

Still, the Raptors’ last five games have all found a way to go Over the total. I look for that streak to end tonight. The Clippers are on a 5-1 run to the Under, so things have been going quite differently for them. LA has averaged only 99.2 PPG on 42.9% shooting its last five games and they are actually bottom five in the league in offensive efficiency. With the Clippers missing their leading scorer and Toronto having so many players working their way back into the lineup, expect a low-scoring game. 10* Under Clippers/Raptors

10* Under Jazz/Spurs (8:35 ET): Both these teams are coming off back to back high scoring encounters. Utah held off Dallas on Christmas Night, 120-116, in a game that featured a ton of free throw attempts. That followed a 128-116 win over Minnesota. Meanwhile, San Antonio is off its two best offensive games of the season as they scored 138 on the Lakers Thursday and 144 on Detroit last night. For a variety of reasons, I anticipate we’ll be seeing a massive decrease in scoring from both teams on Monday. 

The Jazz won’t have PG Donovan Mitchell available tonight due to a back strain. The injury actually occurred in the first quarter of the Dallas game, but Mitchell still went on to score 33 points, his ninth 30+ point game of the season. It’s a big loss not having him on the floor for this game and Utah’s league-leading offense should suffer as a result. I certainly don’t expect the Jazz to get to the free throw line 37 times like they did vs. the Mavs. The team also averages fewer points per game on the road than it does at home. 

But Utah’s defense actually gets better on their travels, holding teams to 102.5 PPG. As a result, Jazz road games see about eight fewer total points per game scored than their home games. The defensive effort will be needed here against a Spurs team that just had its highest scoring first half and game of the season last night. But again, it is unlikely that SA can even come close to replicating that kind of offensive effort here. They too are without their starting PG (Murray) and the Under is 7-3 the L10 times the Spurs have been in the second night of a back to back.. Both teams are due to “cool off”. 10* Under Jazz/Spurs

10* Under Mavericks/Jazz (10:35 ET): Rolling into XMas night with a 22-9 overall record, Utah is pretty clearly one of the three top teams in the NBA right now, alongside Phoenix and Golden State. While the Jazz may trail both those teams in the standings, they are actually level with the Warriors for the best point differential in the league and have an ever-so-slightly better net efficiency rating. I’ve got them at #1 in my own personal power ratings. The most efficient offensive team in the league (and highest scoring), the Jazz are big favorites here against the short-handed Mavericks. But it won’t take many points to win this game. You’re going to want to go with the Under here.

The Under has hit in 9 of Dallas’ last 11 games. Part of that is the Mavericks play at the slowest pace in the entire league. Fewer possessions equal fewer points and that’s the name of the game here. But the main reason the Mavs will look to “shorten” the game is because Luka Doncic (and likely many others) remain out because of COVID. The team could manage only 95 points last time out as they suffered a seven-point loss to Milwaukee (who was without Giannis Antetokounmpo). In that game, the Mavs had five players suit up that were under 10-day contracts. Three of the top four scorers are out. Doncic won’t even travel with the team XMas Day. 

So I’d say it’s a safe assumption that Dallas won’t be doing a ton of scoring on Saturday. Only twice in their last 11 games have they scored more than 105 in a game and those were against Charlotte and Minnesota, two of the worst defensive teams. The key to this Under then rests on the Mavs’ ability to slow down the Utah offense. One good thing for the Mavs is that I don’t think the Jazz are going to shoot as well as they did on Thursday vs. Minnesota when they made 53.3% of their FG attempts. A natural decline from that number will help the underdog, who is not only 9-2 Under their L11 games overall, but also 35-17 Under the L52 times taking points. 10* Under Mavericks/Jazz

8* Over Thunder/Suns (9:05 ET): This may surprise you given how I spoke of the Thunder in yesterday’s (successful) Under play. While it’s still true that Oklahoma City is the lowest scoring team in the NBA, they have now topped their season average in four straight games, which includes three consecutive straight up victories over teams that were in the playoffs last year. I expect the Thunder to shoot a lot better from three-point range tonight than they did Wednesday vs. Denver (23.5%) and the team they face is more than capable of putting a big number on the board. So Over is the call on Thursday. 

Phoenix has shown no real signs of regressing after last year’s run to the NBA Finals. They did start the season 1-3, but since then have gone 24-2 SU including an 18-game win streak. The Suns easily beat the Lakers on Tuesday, 108-90, for their fourth straight victory. As you can see, that was a relatively low-scoring victory as the Suns shot below 30% from three-point range. (They were coming off a game where they shot 56.8% overall and scored 137 points). At the defensive end, the Suns were even stingier though, holding the Lakers to 39.1% overall including 7 of 35 from three-point range.

Don’t be surprised if/when the three-pointers are flying (and going in) tonight. Phoenix shoots 37.4% from behind the arc at home, so I’d say they are a lock to shoot better tonight than they did vs. the Lakers. They are averaging 113.5 PPG at home and that’s a number I believe they can exceed here. If so, we’re only going to need 100 from OKC and given their recent form, that seems “doable” as well. When in the second night of a back to back, the Thunder are allowing over 120 PPG this season. The Over is 20-8 in Phoenix’s last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and OKC is 5-9 SU on the road this year. 8* Over Thunder/Suns

10* Under Nuggets/Thunder (8:05 ET): Over their last six games, the Nuggets have basically averaged almost 120 points per game. Not convinced they can continue to maintain that kind of average moving forward, especially because they are averaging only 106.8 PPG for the season. So look for a decrease in scoring from Denver tonight. Those last six games have all gone Over the total as have 13 of their last 14 games. But tonight they are facing the lowest scoring team in the entire NBA. Take the Under.

There’s definitely no shot of Denver matching its scoring output from the last game when they went to Atlanta and shot 58.1% overall from the field, including 17 made three-pointers. The Nuggets currently have a number of players dealing with injuries, so it was definitely surprising to see them “go off” like that on Friday. By the way, the Nuggets haven’t played since Friday. They were supposed to play Brooklyn Sunday, but that had to be postponed. A lengthy layoff could lead to some “rust” and a slow start at the offensive end tonight. 

Oklahoma City is coming off B2B wins, which is a rare occurrence for them. They’ve upset the Clippers and Grizzlies over the last few days. Both games stayed Under. As mentioned above, the Thunder are the lowest scoring team in the NBA. They don’t even average 100 PPG. Neither of these teams like to play at a particularly fast pace, so we don’t have to worry about that. Denver is 12-5 Under its previous 17 games as a road favorite. 10* Under Nuggets/Thunder

8* Over Bucks/Pelicans (8:05 ET): Milwaukee had seven players missing from the lineup on Wednesday, one of them being Giannis Antetokounmpo. But they still defeated Indiana 114-99 for their 13th win in the last 16 games. Still short-handed, the reigning NBA Champs now head to the Big Easy to face a Pelicans team that is at the opposite end of the standings. However, NO is off a very exciting win where Devonte’ Graham made a 61-foot shot at the buzzer to beat Oklahoma City 113-110 on Wednesday. 

The Pelicans’ season got off to a terrible 3-16 start, but they have battled back to win six of their last 11 games including the thriller 48 hours ago. Zion Williamson hasn’t played a minute this season. As for the catalyst of the recent “turnaround,” you’ve got to point in the direction of Brandon Ingram, who averages a team-high 23.4 points per game after averaging 27.9 over the last eight games. 

The Bucks could get Kris Middleton back for tonight’s game, but regardless of that I like this game to go Over the total. We saw what Jrue Holliday can do on Wednesday when he scored 26 points and had a season-high 14 assists. Something to keep in mind with all these absences going around the NBA is that teams typically still find a way to score. New Orleans is on a 13-3 Over run when facing teams with winning records. The Over is 23-9 the L32 meetings between these teams, including 5-1 L6 here in NO. 8* Over Bucks/Pelicans

10* Over Knicks/Rockets (8:05 ET): Houston had been surprising a lot of people of late, winning 8 of 10 games straight up while also going 8-1-1 ATS in the process. However, last night they ran into an even hotter Cleveland team, who slapped them with a 124-89 beatdown. That was more reminiscent of the Rockets’ 1-16 start to the season, which saw them get held under 100 points nine times. But I’m expecting a better effort tonight at the offensive end against the Knicks.

New York was one of last year’s surprise teams. But as I’ve previously written, they’ve slipped considerably to start 2021-22. Last season saw them lead the league in 3PT% defense, which was not going to be repeated this year and sure enough opponents are hitting 35.4% against the Knicks from behind the arc. Last time out, NY saw history made at their expense with Steph Curry setting a new NBA record for most career three-pointers made. The Knicks lost that game 105-96 as they could only shoot 36.1% from the field.

I am expecting both teams’ offensive numbers to pick up tonight. Houston is pretty bad defensively, giving up 113.0 PPG for the year. Three of their last four opponents have scored more than 120. So you’ve got to like the Knicks’ chances of putting up a high number this evening. Julius Randle had a 25-point second half vs. the Warriors, so he's the player to watch. I know the Rockets are playing short-handed (top four scorers were all out last night), but this is the NBA and teams almost always find ways to score. The Over is 6-0 when Houston is in the second night of a back to back. 10* Over Knicks/Rockets

8* Under Hornets/Spurs (8:35 ET): San Antonio has a real “imbalance” when it comes to Over/Unders at home vs. on the road. The Over is 10-1 so far in Spurs’ home games. But when the team hits the road, they are 10-1 Under. They are at home tonight, facing a Charlotte team whose games - on average - are the highest scoring in the NBA (231.5 PPG). This has led the oddsmakers to set the highest O/U line for any Spurs’ game this season. While there is an inherent risk playing the Under with the Hornets team, I believe that’s the way to go tonight.

While San Antonio has the highest Over rate in the league at home, Charlotte is #2. But this is obviously a road game for the Hornets and the Over is more “modest” 9-8 when they are away. The Hornets had gone Over in eight straight games overall before losing 120-96 in Dallas on Monday. What’s key to note with Charlotte right now is that they have been playing short-handed due to COVID protocols. Initially, they stayed competitive, but then we saw what happened last time out.

After a poor start to the season, the Spurs have been better of late. They are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in their L9 games. They last played on Sunday when they turned in a solid defensive effort, holding New Orleans to 97 points on 42.6% shooting. That was just the second Spurs’ home game to go Under this season. The fact this is the highest O/U line for any San Antonio game this year is notable. Will their starting five combine to score 88 points again, as they did in the last game? Unlikely. 8* Under Hornets/Spurs

8* Over Warriors/Knicks (7:35 ET): So, it is a virtual lock that tonight Steph Curry will break Ray Allen’s NBA record for most three-pointers made. Curry could not have asked for a bigger stage as the Warriors will visit Madison Square Garden to play the Knicks on TNT. With history about to be made, expect the Warriors (Curry in particular) to come out firing. As a team, they were just 8 of 30 from three-point range in last night’s 102-100 win over Indiana. Curry was 5 of 15 and now needs only three more threes to surpass Allen. He’ll make a lot more than three tonight as it should be a big offensive night. 

The Knicks were a surprise team last year, finishing 41-31, good for 4th place in the Western Conference. A big reason for their success was leading the league in 3-pt FG% defense. They haven’t been nearly as good this year at defending the three-point arc and as a result, the Knicks enter tonight’s showdown with a 12-15 SU record and are just 12th in the Eastern Conference. Having lost three straight and six of their last seven games, there’s much work to be done in the Big Apple. 

I do think the home team will have a bigger offensive night than expected here. Golden State was fortunate that Indiana shot only 23.3% from three last night. New York, who shoots 36.0% from three for the year, should do a lot better than that. I know the Knicks are off B2B sub-100 point games and the Warriors have been an “Under machine” thus far. (Under is 20-7 in all GS games). But even if the Knicks only score 100 here, I think it’s reasonable to expect 110+ from the Warriors and that means the game goes Over. 8* Over Warriors/Knicks