9* Under Bengals/Chiefs (3:00 ET): These teams met in the regular season and it quickly turned into a shootout with the Bengals eventually coming out on top, 34-31 as 3.5-point underdogs. But that game took place in Cincinnati. I don’t see these young upstarts beating KC twice in the same season. There’s only been one instance of Chiefs QB Mahomes losing twice to the same team in the same season. I also don’t think this game will be as high scoring as the original. 

The O/U line closed at 51.0 for the regular season meetings. It’s predictable that the number for the rematch is a few points higher and that the majority of bettors are on the Over. Especially since the last seven Chiefs’ games have all gone Over. But, every Bengals game since the win over the Chiefs has gone Under the total. They could barely muster 300 total yards against the Raiders in the Wild Card Game and the offense frequently fizzled against a defense that was last in red zone efficiency. Last week, the Bengals managed only one touchdown in the win over the Titans and got 10 points off turnovers, including the GW FG.

On the bright side, one of two touchdowns allowed by the Bengals’ defense last week came on a short field. Stopping Mahomes will obviously be more difficult. But - with just two minutes left in regulation against the Bills - the Chiefs had “only” 26 points. The Cincinnati defense is only allowing 16.9 PPG on the road, which is why the Under is 7-2 in those games (just 42.3 PPG total scored). The Chiefs allow only 19.5 PPG at home where the total number of PPG scored is 48.5. I see value with the Under here. 9* Under Bengals/Chiefs

8* Under Bills/Chiefs (6:30 ET): The Bills offense played nearly perfect football vs. New England in the Wild Card Round. Against a top five defense (#2 in scoring), they scored touchdowns on all seven drives that did not end in a kneel down. Before backup QB Mitchell Trubisky came in for “kneel down duty” at the end of the game, Buffalo had 480 total yards on 51 plays. I really respect this offense, but repeating last week’s performance will be impossible.

Kansas City dominated in the Wild Card Round as well. Don’t be fooled by them allowing 21 points either. One of Pittsburgh’s touchdowns was from the defense. In the first half, the Steelers’ offense never crossed midfield and had just 40 yards on 26 plays (excluding kneel down). That was reminiscent of the stretch in the regular season when the Chiefs allowed 17 points or less in six straight games. At home this season, they are allowing just 17.9 PPG. The Chiefs will NOT keep the Bills in check like they did the Steelers, but I do see KC’s six-game Over run coming to an end here.

These teams met in the regular season, here at Arrowhead, with the Bills winning 38-20. That included a defensive touchdown by the Bills. Take that away and the game would have stayed Under. Note the Chiefs only scored 20 points. Buffalo has the league’s top scoring defense at 17.0 PPG allowed and even on the road they allow only 17.5.  This game will be lower-scoring than expected. I know that it seems risky, but take the Under. 8* Under Bills/Chiefs 

8* Under Rams/Buccaneers (3:00 ET): So these teams met in the regular season. The Rams won 34-24, but that was at home. It was a turnover free game (for both sides) where the Rams - at one point - scored on six consecutive drives. The Bucs didn’t exactly have problems moving the football either, but they missed a field goal and turned it over on downs in the fourth quarter. For a variety of reasons, I don’t see the rematch being nearly as high scoring. Take the Under.

The Rams were 34-11 winners over Arizona in the Wild Card Round. That included a defensive TD (thanks to an atrocious decision by Kyler Murray), which pretty much put the game away. While Matt Stafford getting his first career playoff win grabbed the headlines, don’t discount what the Rams’ defense did to the Cardinals. They held them to just 183 total yards (just 3.4 yards per play), most of that coming when the game was already well in hand. Holding Tom Brady and company in check like that might seem unrealistic. But the Rams’ defense has now had seven straight games of holding opponents to 24 points or less in regulation. That was the number they held TB to back in Week 3.

The Bucs were 31-15 winners on Wild Card Weekend, easily dispatching of the Eagles. But while the final result was never in doubt, take note that TB was actually outgained on a per play basis. Some of that has to do with all of the points and most of the yards allowed by the defense coming in the 4Q. Going into the fourth, Philly was scoreless and had less than 200 total yards. But still, Brady and the offense gained just 4.5 yards per play and clearly benefited from a muffed punt that led to a touchdown. 8* Under Rams/Buccaneers

10* Under Steelers/Chiefs (8:15 ET): Of the six matchups on the NFL’s “Super” Wild Card Weekend, all but one features teams that met in the regular season. This is one of those as Kansas City drubbed Pittsburgh 36-10, three weeks ago, here at Arrowhead. It’s difficult for me to envision a subpar Steelers team that was outscored by 55 points in the regular season, winning here. But this is certainly a big number to lay in the playoffs. The Steelers’ defense should ensure that this rematch is at least a little closer than the original. But I’m not expecting much scoring by the road team either. 

Kansas City heads into the playoffs on a 5-0 Over run. But let’s not forget about the seven-week stretch of regular season games where they held six teams to 17 points or fewer. At home, the Chiefs’ defense is allowing just 17.1 PPG. I don’t see them really being threatened here by a Steelers’ offense that has been beyond anemic, particularly in the first halves of games this year. The Steelers are averaging just 6.7 PPG in the 1H this year. Put them on the road and that number drops to a near unfathomable 3.6 PPG! They can’t run (3.9 YPC) and barely average 20 PPG. In six of the last eight games, Pittsburgh has gained less than 315 total yards. 

Kansas City should feel pretty comfortable about their chances of winning here. Patrick Mahomes is 42-1 SU as the starter when the defense does NOT give up 27+ points. Clearly, I don’t see the Steelers scoring THAT many. But I do see this being lower scoring than the regular season game, which makes Under the call. The Chiefs’ offense actually put up fewer points at home (than on the road) this season and gained fewer yards, per game and per play. Five of the Steelers’ last six games did not exceed 46 points and four of those had 40 points or fewer. 10* Under Steelers/Chiefs

10* Under Raiders/Bengals (4:30 ET): When these teams met in the regular season, it was 32-13 Bengals, but that was a little bit misleading as both teams gained less than 300 total yards. I don’t see this rematch being higher scoring, so Under is a logical call here. It was only 13-6 going into the 4Q in Vegas back in Week 11. It was 16-13 with just over five minutes to go. After capping a 62-yard drive with a JaMar Chase TD, the Bengals piled on 10 more points due to two late Derek Carr interceptions. It was a somewhat misleading final.

Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow led the NFL in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. But he actually threw for a season-low 148 yards when he faced the Raiders. The Bengals’ offense had just one play of 20+ yards in that game and it was a Joe Mixon run. Burrow has been sacked a league-leading 51 times. The Raiders don’t send a ton of pressure, but as we saw last week against the Chargers, Maxx Crosby can certainly be a disrupting presence. 

I do think the Bengals will still win this game, however, and that’s mainly because I don’t expect a ton from a Las Vegas offense that is far too dependent on drawing PI calls to move the sticks. Even with a full overtime session last week, the Raiders still only gained 346 total yards. Even during their four-game win streak (four wins by a total of 12 points), their offense was just 18th in the league in yards per drive. Before last week, they had been held to 17 pts or less in five of the previous seven games. 10* Under Raiders/Bengals

8* Under Georgia/Alabama (8:00 ET): The SEC Championship Game was a 41-24 final, but I don’t see the rematch (for the National Championship) being that high scoring. For starters, Alabama doesn’t have WR John Metchie this time. Metchie suffered a season-ending injury in the first meeting, after hauling in six catches for 97 yards. Also, note there was a defensive TD scored in the SEC Championship, which probably won’t happen again. Both defenses looked dominant in their respective semi final victories. Both those games went Under and I’m banking on this one to do the same. 

I had Georgia in CFP Semifinals as they laid waste to Michigan by a score of 34-11. The Bulldogs’ top ranked defense, which had three shutouts and held nine teams to 10 points or less in the regular season, again showed up in a major way vs. the Wolverines. This group is allowing just 9.6 PPG for the season and excluding the SEC Championship, has held the other 12 opponents to only 94 points. Other than Alabama, nobody scored more than 17 points against Georgia all season. The Tide are the only offense to score multiple touchdowns in the same game against Georgia. 

Now it should be pointed out that Alabama’s defense also looked pretty ferocious against Cincinnati, holding them to just six points and 218 total yards. For the year, the Crimson Tide allow just 19.2 PPG. With this being a second meeting, there’s greater familiarity between the two sides. Probably not a lot of surprises from either offense. 8* Under Georgia/Alabama

analysis soon

8* Over Seahawks/Cardinals (4:25 ET): Seattle (6-10 SU) has nothing to play for here while Arizona (11-5) can still win the NFC West by winning this game and the Rams losing to the 49ers. That’s hardly the unlikeliest of scenarios and it’s tough not to expect the Cardinals to win here, given they easily defeated the Seahawks earlier in the year, 23-13, with Colt McCoy at QB. But given the fact Seattle has a +21 point differential for the season (they are better than their record), I’m not about to lay this many points here. 

The Seahawks put up 51 points in the home finale last week. Granted, that came against the Lions, but it was the third time in the last five weeks that they put up 30 or more points. Four of those five games went Over the total. Expect a much better offensive effort out of Seattle here, compared to the first meeting with Arizona, which was just the second game back for Russell Wilson after finger surgery. The Seattle offense also now has RB Penny, who is coming off a career-best 170 yard day. 

Arizona ended a three-game losing skid with a surprise 25-22 win over Dallas last week. This offense went for over 400 yards the first time it faced the Seattle defense. Again, that was with Colt McCoy under center. The Cardinals will need to continue scoring, given the defense has allowed 22 points or more in five straight games. Fortunately, they have Kyler Murray, who is set to become the first QB in NFL history with 3,500+ yards passing and 400+ yards rushing in each of his first three seasons. I see this game going Over. 8* Over Seahawks/Cardinals

8* Under Cowboys/Eagles (8:15 ET): With both teams having already clinched a playoff spot, and little chance to improve seeding, don’t expect many fireworks here on Saturday night. Certainly, this will be nothing like the first meeting, which was a 41-21 win by the Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Dallas will play its starters, but for how long remains to be seen. Philadelphia is dealing with a COVID outbreak and QB Jalen Hurts has an ankle sprain. So they won’t resemble the team that’s won six of seven. 

Even if Hurts does play, I don’t see the Eagles doing much offensively, even though the Cowboys are thin at linebacker. Certainly, Philly is going to want to keep it conservative in preparation for next week’s road playoff game (likely against Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay). Philly may lead the league in rushing, but their RB group is very thin right now. My expectation here is that by the second half you’ll have Gardner Minshew at QB with a third-string RB. That could be the dynamic for the entire game, honestly. 

The Dallas’ offense has declined in recent weeks - with one notable exception - the MNF beatdown of Washington. But that was at home. The Cowboys’ points per game average dips dramatically on the road, all the way down to 23.5 from 36.4 at home. Fortunately, their defense is allowing only 19.4 PPG in road games. The Eagles defense, while not exactly facing a slew of great QBs, has held its last five opponents to 14.8 PPG. The key here is that scoring should come to a grinding halt after halftime. 8* Under Cowboys/Eagles

10* Under Browns/Steelers (8:15 ET): After the events of Sunday, the Browns are eliminated from playoff contention. The Steelers basically are as well. So it’s all about “pride” Monday Night. Cleveland has revenge for a 15-10 home loss on Halloween, which dropped their all-time record vs. Ben Roethlisberger to a woeful 3-24-1. This will almost certainly be Big Ben’s final home game in a Steelers uniform and I’m sure his teammates will want to send him off with a win. Given how poorly these offenses have performed much of this season, I’m expecting this to be a low-scoring game. Take the Under. 

I won with the Under in the Browns’ game last week, which ended up being a 24-22 loss in Green Bay. Embattled QB Baker Mayfield played horribly, tossing four interceptions. As discussed in the analysis for that X-mas Day play, the Browns’ offense had previously been held to 17 points or less in seven of nine games. Excluding defensive TD’s, they’ve topped 22 just twice since Week 3. Luckily, the defense has kept the Browns in many games this season. It has allowed 24 points or less in eight of the last nine games and has allowed 16 points or less in half the games this season. 

It’s not a great Pittsburgh offense anymore. They’ve failed to score a single touchdown in the first half since Week 11. Personally, I don’t think the Steelers are any good; they’ve been outscored by 70 points this year and have been behind by double digits in five of the last six games. They’ve led for about 10 minutes of actual game time in that stretch. In four division games so far, the Steelers’ offense has averaged just 13.8 PPG. But I still trust the defense. The last two home games have seen the Steelers allow just 19 and 13 points. Both of those went Under. So will this one. 10* Under Browns/Steelers

10* Over Broncos/Chargers (4:05 ET): This is the second meeting of the season between these long-standing AFC West rivals. Denver won the first, 28-13, as a 2.5-point home dog. I was on the Broncos in that spot, but it was actually a much luckier win that the final score indicates as the Chargers had the edge in total yards. Turnovers hurt LA that day, much like they did last week in a stunning 41-29 loss to Houston. Coming off a bad loss like that, I wouldn’t want to lay points with the Chargers here. But I think it’s a given they will put up more points in this second matchup. Give me the Over. 

The Chargers’ last four games have all gone Over. They’ve averaged 33.8 points in that time, but unfortunately are also allowing 29.5 PPG. So that’s an average of 63.3 total points for the four games. We don’t need nearly that many to get the Over here. QB Herbert will ensure that the offense points up points here. The Chargers are third in the league, averaging 30.3 PPG at home. But the defense remains a liability. It gives up the fourth most rushing yards per game in the league. The Bolts have allowed 140+ rush yards eight times this season and 170+ four times. 

Denver games typically go much differently as they have the highest Under percentage in the league this season and their Under percentage under HC Vic Fangio is highest in the league during that time. Drew Lock will be the starting QB for the Broncos, so look for him to lean on the running game. Again, that’s a good thing, given what I outlined above. The Broncos averaged 4.5 yards per carry in the first meetings with the Chargers, a game that they finished with 28 points. Both teams should top 21 this time. 10* Over Broncos/Chargers

10* Over Baylor/Ole Miss (8:45 ET): After seven straight Unders to end the regular season, I expect Ole Miss to come out “flying” in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Night. The same can be said for Baylor, whose last four games all went Under. This number is shockingly low for two teams that combine to average almost 68.5 points/game. I won’t be the least bit surprised if this one goes Over by the end of the third quarter.

Matt Corral of Ole Miss is one of only four QBs in the country to throw for 20 touchdowns and run for at least 10. In addition to that, the Rebels are the only team in America with at least four 500+ yard rushers. Overall, this offense was incredibly balanced and wound up fourth in the county in total offense, averaging 282.4 YPG passing and 224.2 YPG rushing. The Rebels average 35.9 PPG.

Baylor has a really strong defense, but has not faced an offense as good as Ole Miss all season. Fortunately for the Bears, they should also be able to put plenty of points on the board here. They  average 32.5 PPG overall. Look for the Bears to be able to run the ball very effectively in this game; they average 5.2 yards per carry. They’ll have to, in order to trade points with Corral. 10* Over Baylor/Ole Miss 

8* Under Oklahoma State/Notre Dame (1:00 ET): Both of these teams were hoping to make the College Football Playoff, but instead had to “settle” for a first-ever meeting in the Fiesta Bowl. Notre Dame’s only loss this year was to Cincinnati, at home, something that all but ensured the Fighting Irish could not slip past the Bearcats into the top four. Oklahoma State had two losses, both close, one at Iowa State and then the other in the Big 12 Championship Game to Baylor. These teams have combined to go 18-7 ATS, so I’ve got no interest in the side, but I do think we’re getting a low-scoring game here. Take the Under. 

Oklahoma State has the third ranked defense in the country in terms of yards allowed (278.4) and is eighth in scoring (16.8 PPG). They are great both against the run (5th in FBS) and the pass (12th). They do a great job on third down, allowing conversions only 26.1% of the time, which is second best in the country. But perhaps most impressive of all is that the Cowboys are #1 nationally in both sacks and tackles for loss. Notre Dame does average 35.3 PPG, but their high-scoring games were against mostly bad teams, and they are just middle of the pack in yards gained. Also, RB Kyren Williams won’t be playing in the Fiesta Bowl. So don’t expect the Fighting Irish to score a ton on Saturday. 

Similarly, Oklahoma State only averages 22.8 PPG away from Stillwater. Notre Dame has a pretty stout defense, giving up just 18.3 PPG and over the L10 games, they held seven opponents to 16 points or less. The last four games saw the Irish allow just 23 total points and that includes 14 straight quarters without giving up a touchdown. Not only is the Under 6-1 in Oklahoma State’s last seven bowl games, but it is a perfect 8-0 their L8 bowl games as a dog. Notre Dame is 4-0 Under its last four bowl games. 8* Under Oklahoma State/Notre Dame

10* Under Tennessee/Purdue (3:00 ET): After ending the regular season with a 5-0 Over run, Tennessee finished in a three-way tie (with Rice & La Tech) for the highest Over percentage in the country this season. As a result, the O/U line for the Music City Bowl has definitely been “on the move,” reaching a high point of 64.0 as of this writing. But this is where I’ve got to step in and go “the other way” as Purdue will be missing its top two receivers on Thursday and their games only averaged 48.0 points this season. 

Without the two top pass catchers - David Bell and Milton Wright - the Boilermakers’ offense won’t come close to resembling how it looked in upset victories over Iowa and Michigan State during the regular season. Consider that even with those two in the lineup, Purdue averaged “only” 27.5 PPG. And it’s not like they can turn to a run game which averaged only 2.78 yards per carry, worst in the entire FBS! It’s a completely one-dimensional Purdue offense and the Tennessee defense is catching a big break here with the top two Boilermakers’ receivers being out. 

Tennessee’s offense also has a prolific passing attack. But they struggle in pass protection, having given up 42 sacks, which was the most among SEC teams. Purdue’s defense is going to be without its ace pass rusher, George Karlaftis, but should still get to Vols QB Hendon Hooker with some regularity. The Boilermakers only allow 20.5 PPG and shut down pretty much everyone with the exception of Ohio State. With the O/U line moving so much, I’m seeing lots of value with the Under here. 10* Under Tennessee/Purdue

8* Under West Virginia/Minnesota (10:15 ET): With leading rusher Leddie Brown opting out of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, all of a sudden Minnesota becomes a very bad matchup for WVU. The Golden Gophers’ defense ranks fourth nationally in total defense and is ninth against the run. Without Brown, the Mountaineers are going to heavily lean on QB Jarret Doege, but the problem is Doege’s yards per pass attempt (7.4) ranked near the bottom of the Big 12 and WVU generated only 10 plays of 40+ yards all season. With Minnesota allowing just 4.98 yards per play and 18.3 PPG, WVU will struggle to score Tuesday night.

For the Golden Gophers, the running back position was hit hard by injuries, which led to some early growing pains. Still, look for HC PJ Fleck to look to establish the run in this game as Minnesota led the Big 10 in rushing attempts during the regular season. Whether or not that can be an effective strategy remains to be seen, however. West Virginia allows only 129.6 rush yards per game, 5.5 yards per play and 24.3 PPG. Even if Minnesota is able to find some success moving the football, they’ll encounter resistance in the red zone where the Mountaineers’ defense ranks 11th nationally in efficiency.

So this should be the rare low-scoring bowl game and I’m taking the Under. For what it’s worth, the total alternated over West Virginia’s last eight regular season games and the last one - a 34-28 win over Kansas that got them bowl eligible - went Over. So if that pattern holds, this game is staying Under. There were five games this year where WVU failed to top 20 points and that was with Brown in the lineup. Only two of Minnesota’s last 10 opponents were able to exceed 16 points. The Under is 12-3 in WVU’s L15 games as a dog while Minnesota has gone Under six straight times in the month of December. 8* Under West Virginia/Minnesota

8* Over Jaguars/Jets (1:00 ET): I also like the Over in this game. Again, the Jaguars should score a season-high in points. There have been only two games since their bye, which was in Week 6, where the Jets didn’t allow at least 30 points. I know I talked about the Jets being short-handed when it comes to pass catchers, but considering that last week marked the seventh time this season that the Jaguars’ defense surrendered 30 or more points, the home team should have its own opportunities to score. With this being a matchup of two of the worst teams in football, expect little defense to be played and a surprising shootout to ensue. The Over is 4-0 in the previous meetings. 8* Over Jaguars/Jets

8* Under Browns/Packers (4:30 ET): The Browns have activated several key contributors from the COVID-19 list, among them QB Baker Mayfield and WR Jarvis Landry. They will also have HC Kevin Stefanski back on the sidelines after he too missed last Saturday’s 16-14 home loss to the Raiders. But pinning that lackluster offensive effort on all of the absences might be “wishful thinking” in Cleveland; this is a team that has been held to 17 points or fewer in seven of its last nine games. One of the two times it wasn’t was thanks to a defensive TD. The presumed return of Mayfield and company won’t necessarily lead to an abundance of scoring from the Browns here. 

Now Green Bay doesn’t have much difficulty scoring, thanks to Aaron Rodgers. While the Browns’ postseason hopes just took a massive hit with that loss to the Raiders, the Packers are already assured of a spot in the postseason and have wrapped up the NFC North. They come into Saturday at 11-3 SU having just held on to beat the Ravens last week, 31-30, when Baltimore failed to convert a two-point try.

That was the fourth straight game to go Over for the Packers and they’ve averaged 35.7 PPG themselves during that stretch. I’ll get back to that in a minute. But first, I’ve got no worries about the Packers’ defense keeping the Cleveland offense in check here. I’ve already documented the Browns’ season-long offensive struggles. It’s more than half their games that they’ve failed to score more than 17 points. Well, Green Bay’s defense only allows 17.0 PPG at Lambeau. So there’s that. But Cleveland’s defense has allowed 16 points or less in eight games this season, including six of the last eight. 8* Under Browns/Packers

10* Over Ball State/Georgia State (2:30 ET): In last year’s bowl appearance, Ball State provided me with the biggest win of the College Football season. The Cardinals were my 10* Game of the Year going up against undefeated San Jose State in the Arizona Bowl. I remember it like it was yesterday. As a nine-point underdog, BSU raced out to a 27-0 first quarter lead and never looked back in a 34-13 outright victory! While I’m not taking the Cardinals plus the points this time, hopefully this Over play wins just as easily! 

Now asking Ball State to go Over the total this season hasn’t been easy. Only three of their 12 games have ended up that way. But this is a bowl game - on Christmas Day no less - and defense may certainly be “optional,” not just for the Cardinals, but for both teams. I know that the last three bowl games all stayed Under. But the Over was 9-2 in the first 11 bowls. Then there’s the matter of this being the second lowest O/U line for any BSU game all season. The previous low was 47.5 for a game with Army. 

It’s interesting to note that while the Under may be 9-3 in all BSU games this season, eight of those would have gone OVER this total. Similarly, Georgia State games averaged 54.0 points this season and at least half would have exceeded this number. There were five games this season, four of them losses, where the Panthers allowed 34 or more points. But their offense also seemed to “peak” down the stretch, averaging 35.7 points over the last three games, a stretch which included a 42-40 upset of Coastal Carolina. 10* Over Ball State/Georgia State

10* Over 49ers/Titans (8:20 ET): San Francisco is surging and despite still only being third in their own division, they are very much in play for a Wild Card spot in the NFC. The Niners have won five of their last six games and last week’s 31-13 dismantling of the lowly Falcons marked the fourth time in that stretch where they scored 30 or more points. The other two games saw them score 26 and 23. Over the L8 weeks, Jimmy Garoppolo has posted the league’s 2nd best passer rating (trailing only Aaron Rodgers!) and the running game has averaged 142.4 YPG since Week 11. So expect the Niners to put up points tonight. 

Tennessee still leads the AFC South, but its once strong grip is loosening as they’ve lost three of their last four games. The division lead (over the Colts) is now down to just one game after blowing a 10-point lead last week and losing 19-13 to the Steelers. That marked the third time in the last four games that the Titans could only put 13 points on the board. But surprisingly the offense has still been able to run the ball without Derrick Henry as they’ve gone for 200+ yards on the ground in two of the last three games. QB Tannehill may be getting some help in the passing game as WR AJ Brown could return tonight. It’s been reported that Brown is “likely” to play. 

Though it’s been mostly Unders produced by these two teams in recent weeks, look for this one to go Over. The number is just too low. The Niners, who have probably the more “reliable” offense of the two teams right now, are 4-0 Over this season when the total is below 45. Brown’s return would be big for Tennessee, but even without him they should put up enough points here (for the game to go Over) as it’s been turnovers more than anything else that have limited their scoring the last few weeks. The Over is 6-2 in Tennessee’s last eight games as a home dog. 10* Over 49ers/Titans

8* Under UTSA/San Diego State (7:30 ET): The Frisco Bowl is our best postseason matchup yet as we’ve got two Top 25 teams facing off Tuesday night. The pointspread has been on the move as UTSA’s star running back (Sincere McCormick) won’t play here as he prepares for the NFL Draft. The Roadrunners are also going to be without a couple of key players on defense. Were they at “full strength,” there’s little doubt I’d be siding with UTSA in this one as they look for the first bowl win in program history, following a 12-1 SU regular season and C-USA Championship. But I think the offense may struggle here.

San Diego State did not have a good showing in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, losing to Utah State 46-13 as 6.5-point favorites. The Aztecs played that game short-handed as multiple players were out because of COVID. You’re now likely to see a better representation of the team that was 11-1 SU prior to losing to Utah State 17 days ago. The number of points SDSU allowed in the MWC Championship Game were the most ever under HC Brady Hoke. The Aztecs are #2 in the country at stopping the run and figure to slow down a UTSA offense that will be without its best offensive player. 

In fact, I’ll argue that San Diego State has the best defense that UTSA will have faced all season. Though the Roadrunners did explode for 49 points in the C-USA Championship Game, that was against a Western Kentucky team that doesn’t play much defense. They’d been held to just 28 PPG in the three games previous to that and that was with McCormick in the lineup. I’m not too worried about a SDSU offense that hasn’t scored more than 28 points since early October. In fact, the Aztecs averaged only 20.8 PPG over the last eight contests. I know that these bowl games have been high-scoring thus far, but not this one. 8* Under UTSA/San Diego State

8* Under Saints/Bucs (8:20 ET): New Orleans has won six straight regular season meetings over Tampa Bay. But the Saints would gladly trade those six wins in exchange for the last time they lost to the Bucs, which was the Divisional Round of last year’s Playoffs. I had the Saints as a home dog when they upset TB back in Week 8, 36-27 as 3.5 point dogs. But this time it’s a lot harder to like them, not just because the Saints are playing in Tampa (where the Bucs are a perfect 6-0), but because of their own 1-5 slide. 

Now New Orleans did end a five-game losing streak last week, beating the lowly Jets 30-9. But don’t expect them to score that many points again. The Jets are the worst defensive team in the league. It’s a big jump up in class facing a Buccaneers’ defense, which allows only 18.5 PPG at home. A big difference between now and Week 8 is the Saints’ QB situation. They still had Jameis Winston as the starter on Halloween. Now it’s Taysom Hill. The Saints were able to run for 200+ yards last week, but won’t do that here against a Bucs’ defense that is third in the league against the run. 

Tom Brady and company have been a scoring machine at home this year, averaging 37.5 PPG. The team has scored 30 or more in four straight games overall, but needed OT to hit that mark last week vs. Buffalo. The Bucs’ defense looked great for three quarters in shutting Josh Allen in the Bills down. I’ll look past what happened in the fourth quarter as they are facing a much weaker offense this week. But expect the Bucs to struggle to score in this one. The Saints’ defense is very good (only 21.9 PPG allowed). None of New Orleans’ last three games have seen more than 44 total pts scored. 8* Under Saints/Bucs

10* Under Navy/Army (3:00 ET): No surprise here. Over the last 16 College Football seasons, the Under is a preposterous 38-9 when two of the three service academies (Army, Navy, Air Force) face off. That includes a 2-0 mark in 2021 as Army’s game vs. Air Force ended up as a 21-14 win (with overtime!) while Navy’s game vs. Air Force was a 23-3 loss. The O/U lines for those respective games vs. the AFA were a little higher than what we’ve got to work with here, but I’m still sticking with the Under. 

That’s because taking the Under when Army plays Navy may be the most surefire bet in the sport. It’s cashed 10 straight years and 17 of the last 21. Last year’s 15-0 Army win was the lowest-scoring edition in recent history, but even so, three of the last four meetings have seen 27 or fewer points scored. It’s not difficult to understand why. With both teams running the triple option, the clock is almost always moving as you don’t have to worry about too many incompletions. Both defenses are also uniquely suited to stop, or at least slow down, the triple-option as they face it in practice every day.

In the case of Navy, they are only averaging 3.91 yards per carry. So this should be an “easy day at the office” for an Army defense that is allowing just 3.65 yards per carry. The Midshipmen also only average 20.4 PPG. That number was a lot lower before they managed to score 38 and 35 points in the final two regular season games. Before that, they’d only topped 20 twice! Even Army’s offensive production was halted somewhat down the stretch. In four of the last seven games, the Black Knights ran for less than 3.7 yards per carry. The exceptions were Bucknell (FCS), UMass (worst team in FBS) and Wake Forest (poor defense). 10* Under Navy/Army

8* Over Jaguars/Rams (4:05 ET): Both the Jaguars and Rams come into this Week 13 matchup on three-game SU losing streaks. However, there are longer streaks at play as well. The Rams have failed to cover five straight games, a streak that dates back to mid-October. The Jaguars have gone Under in six straight games. I know we’re talking about one of the worst offenses in the NFL here (Jacksonville) going cross-county to face a Rams team that’s had some poor offensive outings of late. But I’ve got a “hunch” that this one is set to go Over. The Rams should score a lot of points in this game. 

The Rams scored 28 last week against the Packers. The problem is they also gave up 36. The last three games, again all losses, have seen the Rams’ defense allow an average of 31.7 PPG. While they aren’t likely to give up that many here to the Jaguars, I think they’ll still give up enough to allow this game to go Over the total.

Though they only scored 16 points against the Titans and 10 against the 49ers, there’s really nothing “wrong” with the Rams offense. As I mentioned above, they put up 28 points and 5.8 yards per play last week. Los Angeles comes into this game averaging 27.2 PPG and will be facing a Jacksonville defense that gives up 27.0 PPG on the road. These teams play only once every four years, but for what it’s worth, the Over is 4-0 the L4 meetings. 8* Over Jaguars/Rams

8* Under Wake Forest/Pittsburgh (8:00 ET): This isn’t the ACC Championship Game anyone expected as it will be the first to not involve Clemson since 2014. It was Wake Forest unseating the reigning six-time ACC Champions in the Atlantic Division, even though they lost to the Tigers 48-27 (in Death Valley) two weeks ago. Over in the Coastal, Pittsburgh took advantage of disappointing seasons from North Carolina and Miami to win its second division title in four years. Both teams enter the game at 10-2 straight up, though Pitt has been better ATS (9-3 vs. 6-5-1). It’s just the second 10-win season ever for WF and the first since 1981 for Pitt. 

Everyone, including the oddsmakers, is expecting a high-scoring game here in Charlotte. Both offenses are in the top four nationally by averaging just over 42 PPG. Last night’s C-USA Title game had a similarly high total and those teams (Western Kentucky & UTSA) blew past the number. But I expect this game, which is not being played indoors, to go a little differently. This could close as the highest O/U line for any Pitt game under HC Pat Narduzzi. The previous high (72) was the game vs. North Carolina on November 11th and the final score in that one ended up being just 30-23. 

Prior to last night’s C-USA shootout, taking the Under was quite profitable this College Football season when the O/U line is 70 points or higher. I cashed the Under in last year’s ACC Championship Game (Clemson-Notre Dame) when the number wasn’t quite as high. I think Pitt’s defense is going to make a surprising number of stops in this game while their offense has failed to top 34 points in five of the last seven games. There’s going to be plenty of points scored here, but not as many as the oddsmakers are calling for. With the “world” on the Over, I’m going the other way. 8* Under Wake Forest/Pittsburgh

10* Over Seattle/Washington (8:15 ET): Since Russell Wilson returned to the lineup, the Seahawks have gone 0-2 SU and scored just 13 points. That point total is a little misleading though as Wilson threw TWO interceptions in the end zone against Green Bay. With the season very much on the brink heading into tonight, look for Wilson and the Seattle offense to “pick up the pace” against a Washington defense that has mostly struggled in 2021. Through the first four games of the season, the Football Team had the worst third down defensive efficiency in league HISTORY! They are still giving up 26.7 PPG. 

Washington’s offense has gotten better though, specifically QB Taylor Heinicke, who will be seeking to be the first QB to throw 3+ TD passes in B2B games for the franchise since Kirk Cousins did it back in 2016. The Football Team is coming off back to back upset wins, the first a real shocker as they were 10-point dogs and beat the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers 29-19. Last week, they went to Carolina and won 27-21. Seattle’s defense was very poor at the start of the season. While it’s gotten somewhat better over the last month or so, it is still giving up over 400 YPG for the year. 

So I’m looking for this game to go Over the total. Yes, Seattle games are 8-1-1 to the Under (8-2 for some) this season, but I really do think this is the game where we start to see the “old Wilson.” As for Heinicke, he’s thrown for more than 245 yards in six of his nine games. The Over the L4 times that Washington has been off a SU win. 10* Over Seattle/Washington

9* Over Texas St/Arkansas St (2:00 ET): Neither of these two teams are going to a bowl. Texas State is 3-8 SU after losing five of six. The Bobcats’ lone win during that stretch was 27-19 over LA Monroe. I do not expect them to deliver a solid effort on the defensive side of the ball Saturday. Outside of San Marcos, Texas State is giving up 36.8 PPG. Of course, that’s not very far off from what they allow overall (34.0 PPG). Three of the last four opponents have gone for 35 or more points.

Arkansas State is 2-9 SU and their only win in the last seven games was against LA Monroe, 27-24 as a three-point road dog. The last six Red Wolves games have all stayed Under the total. But it’s important to note that all six O/U lines were higher than this one. ASU has an even worse defense than Texas State, one that gives up a shocking 40.8 PPG at home. They allow 39.9 PPG overall. There have been four different games this year where the Red Wolves allowed at least 50 points. 

When these teams played last year, it was a wild 47-45 Texas State win in San Marcos as a four-point home dog. Arkansas State is a much more prolific offensive team in Jonesboro this season, averaging over 30 PPG here at home. Texas State allowed five TD passes and almost 500 yards total to Coastal Carolina last week. The last 10 times Arkansas State has been favored, the Over is 7-3. 9* Over Texas St/Arkansas St

8* Over Boise St/San Diego St (12:00 ET): Both of these teams are trying to nail down a spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. It is highly unlikely that they’ll see each other again in a rematch next week. Boise State is in a three-way tie for the Mountain Division lead and the other two teams (Air Force & Utah State) are decided favorites this week. A loss for San Diego State potentially drops them into a tie with Fresno State, who plays Thursday and holds the head to head tiebreaker. So unless Fresno State gets upset Thursday, both Boise & SDSU have a lot on the line Friday. 

Note the VERY early start time for this game. Kickoff will be at 9 AM PT. That was done for TV purposes. It will be interesting to see if the early kickoff has any adverse effect on the players. I think the two defenses may not be as sharp as they usually are. If so, look for this game to fly past the total. Boise State comes in averaging 30.4 PPG on the year. San Diego State averages 30.5 PPG at home. Something that I should point out here is just how lucky the Aztecs have been this season. They are 5-0 SU in one-score games. They may be rated #21 by CFP committee, but my power ratings have them MUCH lower. 

Boise State has gone Under in six straight games. That, and the fact they are playing San Diego State, is why this O/U line is so low. But remember what I said earlier about the two offenses. Boise has averaged 32 PPG during its current four-game win streak. But three of the four teams they beat up on aren’t very strong offensively. San Diego State put up 28 points last week in a win over UNLV. This is the lowest O/U line of the season for any Boise State game. Again, I think the respective defenses are “caught napping” after Thanksgiving and this turns into a surprisingly high-scoring game. 8* Over Boise St/San Diego St

10* Under Bills/Saints (8:20 ET): Both the Bills and Saints come into Thanksgiving off blowout losses. In fact, the Saints have lost three straight games (first time since 2016). Two of those losses were close, but last week’s wasn’t as they fell 40-29 to the Eagles. But that was a bit of a misleading final as Philly had three scoring drives start in Saints’ territory + a pick six. Also, New Orleans had two TD drives start inside the Eagles’ 40-yard line. So the fourth straight Saints game to Over the total was pretty misleading all-around.

The Bills’ 41-15 loss to the Colts was also a little misleading. Like the Saints, the Bills also had a slight edge in yards per play on Sunday. That sounds crazy considering the scores, but it is true. Buffalo was also done in by turnovers. They had four (and didn’t force any), which led to three Indianapolis touchdown drives, two of which started deep in Buffalo territory. As for the Bills offense, there were two missed field goals, but it was also the second time in three weeks that they scored 15 points or less. That’s not good.

These two defenses surrendering 40+ points is quite uncharacteristic. In fact, the number of points allowed last week were season-worsts for both teams. The Bills defense still has given up the fewest number of total yards in the league and also ranks second in scoring (17.6 PPG allowed). Most of New Orleans’ points last week came in the fourth quarter during “garbage time” and it’s looking unlikely that they will have RB Alvin Kamara for this game. Trevor Siemian has proven to be a below-average QB. As for the Saints’ defense, the number of rush yards it allowed last week was highly uncharacteristic (though it was the second year in a row that the Eagles shredded them on the ground). Entering that game, New Orleans was #1 in the league at stopping the run. The Under has hit each of the last six years in the primetime Thanksgiving window. Make it seven in a row. 10* Under Bills/Saints

10* Under Giants/Buccaneers (8:15 ET): Tampa Bay’s defense has given up 65 points the last two weeks as the team has lost B2B games for the first time since the midpoint of last season. The good news for Bucs fans is that after suffering those B2B losses last season, the team didn’t lose another game and went on to win the Super Bowl. I wouldn’t be all that confident in a similar run taking place here in 2021, but I do think at the very least the defense gets back on track Monday night vs. the Giants. 

The Giants, who are coming out of their bye week, are one of nine teams in the league that averages fewer than 20.0 PPG. It was a 23-16 win over the Raiders two weeks ago, but the touchdown that decided that game came from the defense (pick-six). Only twice in its last seven games has the Giants offense accounted for more than 20 points. Part of that has to do with RB Saquon Barkley being out, but let’s not look past the fact that Daniel Jones (0-7 SU in primetime games) is a below average NFL QB. 

One encouraging sign for the Giants is that their defense has allowed a total of just 39 points the last three games. A struggling Washington defense held Tom Brady & the Bucs offense to just 19 points last week, so I don’t see why the Giants can’t turn in yet another solid defensive effort tonight. On the flip side, Tampa Bay’s defense is giving up only 18.5 PPG at home. Both losses they recently suffered were on the road. Including last week, the Bucs are 4-0 Under off their previous four losses. 10* Under Giants/Buccaneers

10* Under Dolphins/Jets (1:00 ET): Well, I certainly wish the Jets would have started the archaic Joe Flacco last week when I had the Under in their game vs. Buffalo. Now, maybe it would have been a “moot point” as the Flyboys scored all of seven 17 points anyway. They gave up 45 (to Buffalo) as for the sixth straight time a Jets’ game went Over the total. I’m putting my foot down again this week, saying the streak comes to an end this week against a team that’s far less explosive than Buffalo, that being Miami. Take the Under. 

I know the Jets’ defense is bad, but they probably should not have given up 45 points last week. There was a disastrous six-minute stretch to open the second half where the Bills scored a TD on their opening possession, then got two more quick touchdowns off Jets’ interceptions. It was the third time in the last four games this Jets’ stop unit gave up 45+ points, something this league has not seen since the 1966 Giants! The good news for this week is that they will be facing Tua Tagovailoa, who has an injured thumb. The Dolphins have topped 22 points just one time in their last seven games. Jets’ HC Robert Salah’s specialty is the defensive side of the ball and he’s got to get this group playing better.

But Miami’s defense probably feels pretty good about itself coming into this game. And it should, given it held Baltimore to only 10 points in a shocking Thursday night win last week. I had the Dolphins plus the points in that one and was taken aback by their performance. If they can shut Flacco’s old team down, then they can certainly shut down the 36-year old Flacco quarterbacking what is the league’s seventh lowest scoring offense (17.9 PPG). Four of Miami’s last five games have seen 43 or less total pts scored. This has all the makings of an ugly, low-scoring division game. 10* Under Dolphins/Jets

8* Under Oregon/Utah (7:30 ET): Well, this line should certainly catch your eye. For just the second time ever, we’ve got a Top 3 team getting points against an opponent with two or more losses in the month of November. The only other time this happened was 2010 when underdog Auburn (#2) won 28-27 at Alabama. I do not believe for a second that the Ducks are the third best team in the country, but a win over Ohio State early in the season and the fact they have just one loss (at Stanford in overtime) seems to justify their place among the top four. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ducks end up losing here, but do not want to lay points. 

Utah currently leads the Pac 12 South, so this could end up being the first of two meetings with Oregon as the teams are on track to meet again in the Pac 12 Championship Game. The Utes are 7-3 SU and on a three-game win streak. They are also on a six-game Over run, putting up a ton of points themselves in the process. Last week it was a 38-29 win over Arizona. But I expect the Utes to struggle to move the ball in this one. Oregon’s defense has allowed an average of just 292.7 yards the last three games and gives up just 22.6 PPG for the season.

Not to be overlooked is the fact Utah has allowed an average of only 302.3 yards its last three games. Here in Salt Lake City, they allow just 18.8 PPG. One of the touchdowns that the Utes allowed last week came on a blocked punt. The Under is 6-1 in Oregon’s last seven road games and I’m not convinced the Ducks can continue to convert third downs at their current rate (51.6%!) and this is a pretty high total (2nd highest for Utah all year), given the stakes involved. 8* Under Oregon/Utah

9* Over Illinois/Iowa (2:00 ET): The last eight games involving Illinois have all stayed Under the total. Perhaps the “nadir” for Over bettors came when the Fighting Illini took on Penn State, a game that went to NINE overtimes and still stayed Under. None of the Illini’s Big 10 games have seen more than 38 total points scored and this week they are matched up with the team that has the #7 scoring defense in the country, Iowa, who allows only 16.3 PPG. Yet this O/U line is so low that it is just BEGGING to be played Over. For the season, Illinois’ games average 38.9 PPG. Iowa games average 41.0 PPG. 

Illinois is coming out of a bye, so they’ve had plenty of time to scheme for how they want to attack this Iowa defense. Last week saw the Hawkeyes give up 22 points for the third time in four games. They also allowed 400+ yards for just the second time this season. The Hawkeyes were actually statistically dominated by Minnesota (outgained 409-277), but fortunate to hold the Gophers to three short field goals. 

Unfortunately though, Illinois won’t have HC Brett Bielema on the sidelines as he’s tested positive for COVID-19. I expect that Bielema’s absence will have a greater effect on the defensive side of the ball for the Illini. Iowa scored 27 last week, it’s most in a game since a 51-14 win over Maryland back on October 1st. Also, don’t discount the Hawkeyes’ defense being able to create takeaways that lead to a score or two. With their lowest O/U line in a game all year, Illinois’ Under streak is due to end here. 9* Over Illinois/Iowa

8* Under Patriots/Falcons (8:20 ET): The “world” figures to be on New England here and I really can’t blame them. They are off a dominant 45-7 win over Cleveland where three of the TD drives went for 92+ yards. The Pats have won and covered four straight games and thanks to a couple blowouts, they are tied (w/ the Cardinals) for the league’s 2nd best YTD point differential, behind only Buffalo. Bill Belichick’s team is also a perfect 4-0 (straight up) on the road and is going against an Atlanta team that is not only 0-3 SU/ATS at home, but also off a horrendous 43-3 loss to Dallas last week. 

But I just can’t pull the trigger on a Thursday night road favorite of this size, even if my own power ratings say that it’s probably the right move. Instead, let’s turn to the total. After giving up an 84-yard TD drive on the opening possession, the Patriots’ defense held Cleveland to just 133 total yards the rest of the game. That marked the third time in four weeks that the Pats held their opponent to 13 points or less. Atlanta certainly didn’t do much offensively last week, gaining only 214 total yards and scoring just three points.

So it stands to reason that the Falcons won’t be doing much scoring here. They only average 19.8 PPG to begin with and that number actually drops at home, down to 16.3. Making matters worse for the underdog, they are without Calvin Ridley and probably Cordarrelle Patterson (game-time decision). New England’s defense is #2 overall in scoring and allows only 14.5 PPG on the road. So again, don’t expect many points from the Falcons Thursday night. Let’s just hope that it’s an off-night for the Patriots offensively. If so, this should be an easy Under, a bet that has cashed each of the L5 times Atlanta has played on Thursday night. 8* Under Patriots/Falcons

8* Under Bowling Green/Miami (8:00 ET): Bowling Green games have followed an “odd” pattern in 2021. The first five games all went Under. At that point, the Falcons were also a perfect 5-0 ATS with a shocking upset win over Minnesota. But I then chose to go with the Over when they hosted Akron and that hit, starting what is now a streak of five straight Overs. BGSU has won just once in conference play. That was two weeks ago at Buffalo, 56-49, a game where they were 13.5-point dogs. Last week saw them lose 49-17 at home to Toledo, a spot where I successfully faded them as 10.5-point underdogs. 

Miami needs to win out in order to become bowl eligible. Assuming they win here (they are large favorites), that would set up a showdown next week with Kent State to determine the winner of the MAC East. So there’s still a lot for the RedHawks to be playing for at this juncture. The team is 4-0 SU here in Oxford this season after it thumped Buffalo 45-18 (as seven-point favorites) last week. The RedHawks have three losses by five points or less this year, so a case can be made that they are better than their record. 

While I don’t feel like laying the big number here, the chances of Bowling Green scoring a lot of points in this game seem remote. The Falcons were held under 200 total yards last week by Toledo. Take away that outlier effort against Buffalo two weeks ago and they haven’t scored more than 26 against any FBS opponent all season. Miami’s defense allows just 18.7 PPG at home and Ohio is the only opponent since the start of October to score more than 21 pts against them. I also don’t see the RedHawks coming close to matching their own point total from last week. The Under is 7-1 for Miami the L8 times they’ve been off a game where they scored 40+ points. 8* Under Bowling Green/Miami

9* Over Seahawks/Packers (4:25 ET): With Russell Wilson back in the fold, I’m looking for the Seahawks to outscore Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this week. Yes, Rodgers did clear protocol on Saturday and thus is able to play here. So these teams should look much different than the last time we saw them. Now for Seattle, they are certainly hoping for a result similar to what they had vs. Jacksonville two weeks ago. With Geno Smith at the helm, they won that game 31-7. Green Bay is looking to bounce back from last week’s ugly 13-7 loss to the Chiefs where they were forced to start Jordan Love at QB. 

I know that they were facing the Jaguars, but Seattle scoring 31 points without Wilson is impressive. In three of the four games this year that Wilson has finished, the Seahawks have put up 28 or more points. So you should expect them to “carry their weight” with this Over play. I also have some concerns about their defense, which gives up more than 400 YPG and was historically bad the first five weeks of the season.

Rodgers didn’t practice all week, but the Packers have scored at least 24 points in each of his last seven starts. They average 28.7 PPG at home. Green Bay has gone Under in six straight games, but this matchup has “shootout” written all over it. The Over is 7-3 in the Packers last 10 games after a loss. The last two times that Rodgers and Wilson have met, their teams combined to score 51 total points. I expect even more than that here. 9* Over Seahawks/Packers

9* Under Bills/Jets (1:00 ET): The last five Jets’ games have all gone Over the total. That seems odd given that the Flyboys are 27th in the league in scoring at just 18.0 points per game. But they’ve put up 30+ points in B2B games, including a shocking win over Cincinnati two weeks ago. They’d scored 14 or fewer points in four of the first six games. Now the defense has been shredded the L3 games as it’s given up a total of 130 points! There hasn’t been a single game all year where the Jets held an opponent under 24 points. 

Now you would think that this figures to be another “long day at the office” for the Jets defense as the Bills pay a visit to MetLife Stadium. However, Buffalo didn’t even get in the end zone last week in an absolutely shocking 9-6 loss to the Jaguars. While I am banking on Josh Allen and company bouncing back here, the Bills defense should also handle its business. Though no one was talking about it after the loss to the Jags, the defense has now allowed 11 points or fewer four times in 2021. 

Since 2019, Buffalo is 9-1 Under when off a SU loss. That includes 5-0 after their last five losses. A banged up offensive line may mean they won’t score as many points as you think. As for the Jets offense, I know that backup QB Mike White has captured the hearts and minds of the fanbase, but consider me still skeptical. The Bills haven’t allowed any Jets player to run for 100 yards since 2016. Expect that streak to continue here. This is the highest O/U line in any Jets’ game this season. 9* Under Bills/Jets

9* Over Arizona State/Washington (7:00 ET): There are some streaks on the line in this one. If you can believe this, Arizona State has covered the spread every time in the L10 meetings with Washington. The Sun Devils have won eight of those games straight up, though they did lose the last one, 27-20 as an 18.5-point pup back in 2018. But I will instead be focusing on UW’s 5-0 Under run coming into this game. That’s resulted in a VERY low total for this week and I’m choosing to go Over here. 

There is some controversy here on the Washington sideline as they will be without HC Jimmy Lake, who has been suspended for a week due to an altercation with a player last week. That 26-16 loss to Oregon also cost OC John Donovan his job and it’s easy to see why as the Huskies gained just 166 total yards. But I expect the home team to play hard for its interim coach this week and even have some surprising success on the offensive side of the ball. It won’t take much to help send this one Over.

Before holding USC to just 16 points last week, ASU had given up 69 points in its previous two games. While the Sun Devils aren’t likely to give up 30+ this week, we don’t need them to. I say that because last week, they gained 427 yards on offense, 282 of those coming on the road. This is an offense that would have a lot more points to its name if not for eight turnovers the last two games.  They have averaged more than 400 YPG the last three weeks. Five of the Sun Devils’ last six games have seen 47+ total points scored. 9* Over Arizona State/Washington

9* Over UL Lafayette/Troy (3:30 ET): So I tried the Over with ULL last Thursday and was unsuccessful. Really, it was never close as the Ragin Cajuns had to come from behind to defeat Georgia State (at home) 21-17. The total was 53.5. But this offense is averaging quite a bit of yardage for a team that’s gone Under in five straight. The last three games in particular have seen Louisiana move the ball effectively (467 YPG). This is the lowest O/U line of the season for the Sun Belt leaders. 

Looking to remain perfect in conference play, ULL travels to Troy this week. Their hosts have averaged more than 29 PPG in the L4 games, so they can score. Troy’s last three games have all gone Over and this is one of their lowest O/U lines of the season. It’s not THE lowest (as it is with ULL), but it’s poised to close as the 2nd lowest, only ahead of a 43-point total when they traveled to face South Carolina. The Trojans’ offense should benefit from the fact Louisiana’s defense gives up 25.8 PPG on the road, nearly double what they allow at home. 

Louisiana turned it over on downs - twice - inside the Georgia State 10-yard line last week, so they easily could have scored more points. Troy put up all 31 of its points last week in the first half, so they can definitely score in bunches. The total the last time these teams met (2019) was 74.5! So it’s far cry from that, two seasons later. I just think it’s time for an Over to hit in a ULL game and the Over is 4-1 in Troy’s last five games vs. teams that have winning records. 9* Over UL Lafayette/Troy

8* Under Kent State/Central Michigan (8:00 ET): Kent State is coming off a 52-47 win over Northern Illinois, a game where both teams gained more than 660 total yards. Then you’ve got Central Michigan, who is off a 42-30 win at Western Michigan. Looking at those two scores and deciding to go with the Under here may seem a bit crazy, but there were things that happened in last week’s games that aren’t about to be repeated. This is also a very high O/U line, the highest for either team this season. 

Kent State, who leads the MAC East with a 4-1 SU conference record, used a 31-point second quarter to defeat Northern Illinois last week. They were actually behind 7-0 after the first. But then came big play after big play. None of the Golden Flashes’ five scoring drives in the 2Q lasted longer than 75 seconds. That is insane. A team that averages only 19.6 PPG on the road isn’t about to do that again this week. They are facing a defense that allows just 22.3 PPG at home this season. 

The difference in Central Michigan’s 42-30 win last week was the Chippewas returning TWO punts for touchdowns. Just like Kent State’s second quarter performance from last week, multiple special teams touchdowns is not something you can expect on a week by week basis. The Chips have played two straight high scoring games, but before that none of their games this season had seen more than 70 total points scored. Similarly, the Over is 5-0 the L5 meetings between these teams, but none of the last four have seen more than 65 total points scored. Take advantage of an inflated number here. 8* Under Kent State/Central Michigan

8* Over Packers/Chiefs (4:25 ET): Well, some of the luster of this matchup has certainly been lost, eh? Not only is Kansas City just 4-4 SU on the year, but Green Bay is going to play without Aaron Rodgers, who has tested positive for COVID-19. This comes on the heels of an improbable Packers’ victory last Thursday (24-21 at Arizona) where the team was without its top three receivers. Yes, it’s VERY tempting to want to fade GB here (especially because they are on a 7-0 ATS run). But believe it or not, I can’t trust the lousy Chiefs defense laying this many points. So I’ll call for another streak to end - the Pack’s 5-0 Under run. 

Kansas City is a horrible 4-15 ATS its last 19 games. They did not cover Monday night when they beat the Giants 20-17, nor did they really come close to as 10.5-point favorites. Interestingly, the Chiefs’ last three wins have all been against the NFC East. Last week was the second best defensive effort of the season so far, but KC has allowed 27 or more points six times in 2021. Now, with Rodgers out, can the Packers score that many? Jordan Love, a former 1st round pick, will be the starting QB and he’ll have those top three receivers (Adams, Lazard, Valdes-Scantling) back. So maybe they can. 

I also have to think that this Chiefs’ offense is due to start scoring more. In three of the last four games they’ve been held to 20 points or less. That’s shocking. I love how much the O/U line has dropped with Rodgers out and think there’s some real nice value on the Over now. Truthfully, I was thinking about taking the Over anyway in this matchup (had Rodgers played). His absence must be accounted for, but I like the Over on a lower number just as much as I did the Over on the higher number with Rodgers in there. 8* Over Packers/Chiefs

10* Under UL Monroe/Texas State (3:00 ET): So UL Monroe has seen the Over hit in each of its last five games, three of which have seen the Warhawks surrender 55 or more points themselves. But this week they are up against a Texas State team that just got shutout last week 45-0 (by Louisiana). Texas State barely even mustered 200 total yards in the contest. Now it’s obviously a big change from facing one of the top Sun Belt defenses to one of the worst. But I do not think the Bobcats are capable of putting enough points on the board to get this game Over the total. 

Case in point, the week before facing Louisiana, Texas State put up only 16 points in a loss to Georgia State. They come in averaging only 21.9 PPG for the year, which ranks 110th in the FBS. They are 109th in yards per game, so at least they're consistent. Over the last two games, they’ve found the end zone only one time. The good news is that the Bobcats’ defense gets a bit of a respite this week. UL Monroe comes in averaging only 22.3 PPG and that number drops to a rather sad 14.7 when playing on the road (as they are here). 

So, in sum, while neither teams’ defense is very good, the respective offenses may in fact be worse. Something else I noticed is that this is set to be the highest O/U line for any game this season involving UL Monroe, the team that has gone Over five straight times. Five of Texas State’s games have seen less than 60 total points scored. None of the previous three meetings has there been more than 45 total points scored. The Under is 7-3 when UL Monroe is off an ATS loss. 10* Under UL Monroe/Texas State

8* Over Illinois/Minnesota (12:00 ET): There’s a number of teams in College Football that are currently one somewhat improbable streaks. Illinois has gone Under in seven straight games, a run that goes all the way back to the start of September. The only Fighting Illini game this season to go Over the total was the second one, a 37-30 loss to UTSA (who’s still unbeaten, mind you). The opener, which saw Brett Bielema’s team pull a 30-22 upset over Nebraska, pushed. The most “infamous” Illini Under of the bunch came two weeks ago when, despite NINE overtimes, they and Penn State combined for just 38 points. 

Now, it wasn’t always this way. The Illini’s first three games of the season did average a pretty hefty 58.3 PPG. But it was the start of Big 10 play that brought the downturn in scoring. When facing a conference opponent, Illinois’ games have averaged only 34.5 PPG! That doesn’t include a 24-14 win over Charlotte on Oct 2. Now it should be pointed out that the Fighting Illini have not been facing the top offensive teams from the Big 10. But this week they are taking on a team that has averaged 35 points (by itself) over the L3 games. 

I have no unearthly idea how Minnesota lost 14-10 to Bowling Green on Sept 25th. What I do know is that the Golden Gophers haven’t lost since. Their only loss besides Bowling Green was the season opener against Ohio State. They scored 41 last week against Northwestern (not easy to do). Now the Gophers did just lose ANOTHER running back (Bryce Williams) to what looks to be a season-ending injury. However, I’m not at all concerned about that. Why? Because the team has had FIVE different RBs go for 100+ yards in a game in 2021! The L2 weeks have seen two freshmen - Thomas and Irving - both go over 100 yards in each game. Illinois’ Under streak ends here. 8* Over Illinois/Minnesota

8* Under Jets/Colts (8:20 ET): The Jets are 2-5. That WL record is not nearly as surprising as the two teams that they beat, the Titans and Bengals, who are a combined 11-5 SU. Both Jets’ wins have been by exactly three points (34-31 over Cincy LW and 27-20 over Tennessee in Week 4) and represent their two highest scoring games of the season. The win over the Bengals saw the Jets score 2 TDs in the final five minutes while the win over the Titans required OT. Both wins were also at home. The Jets are still 30th in scoring (16.3 PPG). What I’m saying is that, as a road underdog this week, they probably aren’t going to score many points. 

Now recent Colts’ games have been high-scoring. Indy is off a painful 34-31 OT loss to the Titans where they blew an early 2 TD lead. That leaves them at 3-5 SU overall and three games off the pace in the AFC South. It’s actually more than a three-game disadvantage they face in the division as they’ve now been swept by Tennessee. Carson Wentz and the offense have scored 30+ points in three consecutive games, but that’s not a streak I see continuing here. It’s interesting that over the L2 weeks, the Colts have averaged just 301 total yards per game. 

Two touchdowns in the Jets’ game last week vs. the Bengals were scored after drives that started inside the 15-yard line (one for each team). Backup QB Mike White was a nice story for the Jets last week, but I don’t really trust him in his first career road start. After allowing just 21 points total the previous two games, the Colts defense performed better than you think last week. One of Tennessee’s TDs came on an INT return. Of course, Indy also benefited (early in the game) from a turnover, which allowed them to start a TD drive inside the Titans’ 10-yard line. 8* Under Jets/Colts

10* Over Georgia State/Louisiana (7:30 ET): Louisiana is the “forgotten team” in the Sun Belt. The Ragin Cajuns came into the season ranked #23 in the country. They lost their first game, 38-18, to a Texas team that was also ranked (#21) at the time. Since then, Billy Napier’s team has taken care of business by winning seven in a row, the most impressive victory being a 41-13 thrashing of Appalachian State here in Lafayette. That’s the only time since the Texas loss where the Cajuns have been underdogs. They also roll into Thursday on a five-game Under streak having just blanked Texas State 45-0 on Saturday. 

Georgia State is 4-4 SU and a double-digit underdog here, but could provide a “test” to their hosts on Thursday night. The Panthers are on a three-game win streak, having defeated LA Monroe, Texas State and rival Georgia Southern all by a TD or more. Two of those wins came on the road. But what is interesting about this Panthers team is that despite a low-scoring 21-14 win last week at Ga Southern, their road games have been significantly higher scoring this season. Four road games have averaged 61.3 total PPG and that number was obviously much higher before LW’s win. 

Interestingly enough, though it was a low-scoring final, Ga Southern and Georgia State did combine for more than 850 yards of total offense. The Georgia State defense was exceptionally lucky to force THREE turnovers when backed inside the red zone, two interceptions and a goal line stand. A Louisiana offense that puts up 40.5 PPG at home will not be easy to stop and the good fortune GSU’s defense had last week is not likely to repeat itself here. I know that the Ragin Cajuns have a good defense, but they are facing a team that has put up 482.7 YPG the last 3 weeks! The last two meetings have seen these teams combine for 58 and 65 total points. 10* Over Georgia State/Louisiana

10* Over Eastern Michigan/Toledo (7:30 ET): If it’s November, that means it’s time for some good ol’ “MAC-tion” and I’m anticipating a pretty high scoring game here between Eastern Michigan and Toledo. Visiting EMU comes in with the better overall record (5-3 vs. 4-4 SU), however both are 2-2 SU in conference play and Toledo is a decided favorite at the Glass Bowl. Both teams are chasing Northern Illinois, who at 4-0 SU in conference play is the only undefeated team in the entire MAC. 

It may seem strange to expect a “high-scoring game” with Toledo involved. The Rockets have seen their last six games all stay Under the total. The O/U lines have been pretty consistent, ranging from 51 to 58.5. Three of the previous four games have seen between 49 and 52 total points scored, so there have been some close calls. In their last game, Toledo put up 34 points in a win over Western Michigan. That was their most points scored in a game excluding UMass or an FCS opponent (Norfolk State). The Over is 6-1 the L7 times hosting EMU and LY in Ypsilanti, the Rockets scored 45 points.

The Toledo defense has been surprisingly stout for a .500 team. They are allowing just 18.3 PPG. But the Rockets’ stop unit will be tested by an Eastern Michigan offense that comes in averaging 32.8 PPG (2nd most in the MAC). The Eagles have gone over 30 points in five of their eight games this season. Last time out, they put up 55 in a win over Bowling Green. The key was a mid-season change at QB to Ben Bryant, who leads the conference in passer rating. Toledo also made a change under center a couple weeks ago and they’ve been better (on the offensive end) since then. The Over is due to hit for the home team. 10* Over Eastern Michigan/Toledo

8* Over Miami/Ohio (7:30 ET): The 97th edition of the “Battle of the Bricks” will have a decidedly different “feel” this season as it will mark the first time since 2004 that Frank Solich is not patrolling the sidelines for Ohio. The legendary coach made a surprise retirement this past offseason and that has led to a real downturn in Athens. The Bobcats are just 1-7 SU (one win was against Akron) and headed for their worst season in two decades. However, there is one pretty incredible streak still alive at Ohio: It’s been six years since they lost a MAC game by more than seven points. This year’s three conference losses have been by a combined 11 points. Over the L5 seasons, the Bobcats have 10 MAC losses by 3 pts or less! 

Miami is in much better “form” coming into Tuesday’s rivalry game having won three of its last four. The one loss came by a single point, 13-12 at Eastern Michigan. The RedHawks are coming off a 24-17 upset win at Ball State that leaves them tied with Kent State atop the MAC East. That was their 1st road win of the season as 2021 got underway with a brutal three-game road trip through Cincinnati, Minnesota & Army. Four of Miami’s last five games have gone Under, the exception being a 34-21 win over Akron. 

Ohio’s last five games have all stayed Under, but I’m calling for a reversal of the trend here. This O/U line is definitely on the “low” end for both teams. The O/U line for Ohio’s last game was 68.5. The only game with a lower O/U line than this one came against Northwestern, who held them to six points. Miami’s defense is not going to do that. But at the same time, Ohio’s run defense is one of the worst in the entire country (220 YPG allowed) and they allow 31.1 PPG. 8* Over Miami/Ohio

10* Over 49ers/Bears (1:00 ET): Holding an Over ticket in my hand last week, I felt pretty good at halftime of the Bears-Bucs game. Tampa Bay had just scored its FIFTH touchdown of the first half to go up 35-3. All I would need in the second half was 10 points. I got three. Probably my most frustrating defeat so far this NFL season. But I’m going to “go for it again” this week as the Bears (now 6-0 Under L6 games) host the 49ers in a battle of two NFC teams that are absolutely desperate for a victory.

San Francisco has lost four straight games. Being in the same division as the Cardinals and Rams, the Niners can pretty much “kiss goodbye” any chances of winning the NFC West. Remember that at one time they were 2-0 and looking like a lock to be one of the most improved teams in the entire league (finished 6-10 SU LY). But the bottom has dropped out, mostly because of injuries. QB Jimmy Garoppolo returned last week, but the offense could only manage 18 points in a rain-soaked loss to the Colts on SNF. I do think they’re set to do better here, especially if Khalil Mack can’t go for the Bears.

Rookie QB Justin Fields, who everyone wanted to see play, has been thrown to the wolves in Chicago. It doesn’t help that Matt Nagy is looking more and more like a “lame-duck” head coach. But I think Fields and this much maligned Bears offense can find some success this week against a 49ers defense that has given up 28 or more points in three of its last four games. This is a REALLY low total for 2021, especially considering SF is 5-1-1 Over the L7 times it has been road chalk. 10* Over 49ers/Bears

9* Under Penn State/Ohio State (7:30 ET): Admittedly, I’m taking a risk betting on the #1 scoring offense in the country (49.3 PPG) being in a game that stays Under the total. But the team Ohio State is facing here could only manage 18 points in a game that went NINE overtimes last week! In conference play, Penn State is averaging only 19.5 points per game. So I don’t think we have to worry about them scoring many points Saturday night in Columbus. The deciding factor is that the Nittany Lions defense is quite good (14.7 PPG allowed) and can be the first to hold the Buckeyes in check here in 2021.

The last two games have seen Penn State fail to break 300 total yards. This despite starting QB Sean Clifford (got injured against Iowa) returning to the lineup last week. The Nittany Lions seemingly can’t run the ball (100th in FBS in rush yards per game) and it’s not like they’re going to do much of that here anyway as they figure to be trailing throughout. Clifford could only complete 19 of 34 passes against Illinois for 165 yards. He was also sacked four times. Now he faces a defense that’s allowed 17 points or less in four consecutive games.

Now the Ohio State offense has topped 50 in each of those same four games. But this is the best defense they’ve faced all season. Penn State is #15 in the country against the pass, holding teams to just 178 YPG through the air. The Buckeyes aren’t going to score 50+ every week. Even if they hit 40 this week, which I concede is possible, that does not necessarily mean this game is going to go Over. The Buckeyes allowed just 128 total yards against Indiana last week. So I really can’t stress how little scoring PSU is likely to do in this game. While the O/U line is right in line with most Ohio State games this year, it’s a season high for Penn State. 9* Under Penn State/Ohio State

10* Under Navy/Tulsa (7:30 ET): Tulsa has gone Over in five straight games, which immediately caught my eye. Here they are matched up with a Navy team that isn’t very strong offensively (at least compared to years past) but did just hold Cincinnati to 27 points last week. Based on the way Navy plays (lots of running), there figures to be a lower number of possessions than usual for a Tulsa game. The Golden Hurricane also got last weekend off, giving them some added time to prepare for the triple option. 

When these teams met last year in Annapolis (Tulsa was ranked #22 at the time), the final score was just 19-6 (Tulsa won). Last year was a good one for the Golden Hurricane as they finished 6-3 SU with the losses coming to Oklahoma State, Cincinnati and Mississippi State (bowl). This year’s squad is not nearly as strong. However, the number of points allowed last week to USF (31) was highly misleading. The Bulls got TWO non-offensive touchdowns in the 2Q to build a brief 14-point lead. The Golden Hurricane actually ended up allowing only 268 total yards. 

Navy’s offense has been pretty pitiful to this point. They average just 280 YPG. The vaunted rushing attack is producing only 3.5 yards per carry. The Midshipmen did have a season-high 116 yards passing last week, but that’s because they fell behind by 17 points and had to throw. Again, I was impressed by the defense holding a top five opponent (that averages 41.1 PPG) to just 27 points and 271 total yards. I predict that this ends up being the lowest scoring game - for both teams - so far this season. 10* Under Navy/Tulsa

8* Under Colts/49ers (8:20 ET): I’d like to think that, coming off a bye, San Francisco will be ready to roll here. But this team has not been good as a favorite under HC Kyle Shanahan, going just 8-19-2 ATS including 2-7 SU the last nine times they’ve been laying three points or more. Even with QB Jimmy Garoppolo set to make his return, there are still a litany of injuries this team is dealing with. It’s not like Garoppolo was all that effective before getting injured anyway. He completed only 62% of his passes the L2 starts with two interceptions. 

Meanwhile, it was an 0-3 start for Indianapolis this season and things were looking bleak. But the Colts have turned it around a bit by winning two of the last three games and going 3-0 ATS. Honestly, they probably feel like they should also be 3-0 SU over that stretch as they blew a big lead against Baltimore on MNF and lost that one in OT. Thanks to playing the Texans last week, it was an easy bounce back and the defense did its job, holding Houston to only three points. 

The last time the 49ers beat the Colts was 2001. Obviously, you can count and know that was 20 years ago. But considering that was the game that inspired Jim Mora’s infamous “PLAYOFFS” rant, it might as well have been a lifetime ago. Who knows if either of these teams can get back in the playoff race in 2021. But what I do know is that Sunday night should be a low-scoring game. 8* Under Colts/49ers

10* Over Bears/Bucs (4:25 ET): If Justin Fields thought going against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers was tough, wait until he gets a hold of Tom Brady and the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers. This should be Fields' toughest matchup as a pro. I just can’t see the Bears being able to trade points with the Bucs. But I do think they can score enough to help send this one Over the total. The Bears’ last five games have all gone Under. A matchup with a top three scoring offense should change that. Take the Over. 

The Bucs have not faced a good offense since suffering their only loss, 34-24 to the Rams. Since that loss, they’ve beaten New England, Miami and Philadelphia. Yet only that New England game, which was a highly emotional affair (Brady’s return to Foxboro), saw less than 50 total points scored. Other than at New England, Tampa Bay games have averaged more than 60 PPG this season! All three of their home games this season have gone Over. 

Brady will not have to worry about one of Chicago’s top pass rushers (Robert Quinn) as he is on the COVID list. The Bucs have scored at least 30 points in every home game so far and twice gone over 40. Obviously, I’m expecting a lot of points from them today. But I also expect their defense to give up a surprising number of yards in the passing game to Fields. Before going up against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles last Thursday, the Bucs had allowed at least 262 yards passing to every opponent. If the Bears get to 20, which they should, then this is an easy Over. 10* Over Bears/Bucs

9* Over Bengals/Ravens (1:00 ET): I can understand why the “sharp money” seems to like the Under in this matchup. It’s a divisional game, which means the teams are familiar with one another. Also a Cincinnati team that is 5-0 Under its last five games has been held to just 19 points in its last three meetings with Baltimore. However, this is a much better Bengals team in 2021. They come in at 4-2 SU and just put up a season-high 34 points last. While that was against the lowly Lions, there’s been only one game all year when Cincy failed to score at least 22 points. I’m on the Over. 

The Ravens scored 34 points last week in what was the most impressive wins I’ve seen from anybody this NFL season. They crushed the red-hot Chargers, holding Justin Herbert to just six points. But this Baltimore defense has been kind of “Jekyll and Hyde.” While there have been three times they’ve held the opponent to 17 points or less (Lions, Broncos, Chargers), there have also been three times they’ve given up 25+ points (Raiders, Chiefs, Colts). Where there’s no mystery is on the offensive side of the ball at home. In three home games, the Ravens have averaged 33.7 PPG and topped 30 every time. 

I already mentioned how the previous three meetings between these teams have seen the Bengals not score many points. The same cannot be said about the Ravens. They’ve averaged 38 PPG in those three matchups! Here at home (see above), I have full confidence in them scoring a bunch of points on Sunday. Cincinnati should be able to stick with them though as the Ravens’ defense is allowing 277 yards passing per game. Joe Burrow is a lot better now than when he faced the Ravens as a rookie. He has Ja'Marr Chase to throw to as well. 9* Over Bengals/Ravens

10* Over Wisconsin/Purdue (3:00 ET): While Purdue obviously could have cared less, my loss with the Over in their game last week against Iowa was quite frustrating. Give credit where credit is due. The Boilermakers rolled into Iowa City and stomped the #2 ranked team in the country (yeah right!) 24-7 as a double digit underdog. But four turnovers by the Hawkeyes, all of them in Purdue territory, were the reason that game stayed Under. That and the fact there were two missed FGs (one by each side) after long drives and Purdue also fumbled at the goal line. The Boilermakers are now 6-0 Under this season, making them the ONLY team in the country yet to go Over in a single game. That changes this week. 

You can’t take away what Purdue did offensively last week against a very good Iowa defense. QB Aidan O’Connell threw for 375 yards and WR David Bell hauled in a career-high 240 yards. The Wisconsin defense that the Boilermakers will face this week is good, but not as good as Iowa’s, as evident by the fact the Badgers gave up 41 points to Notre Dame and 38 to Michigan. The number of points allowed vs. ND is a bit misleading (non-offensive TDs) but there was nothing phony about the way Michigan put it on them. As I alluded to earlier, Purdue should have scored 30+ points last week against a very good Iowa defense.

This is a really low O/U line, the lowest of the season for Purdue. It’s not the lowest of the season for Wisconsin as they played Army last week and the O/U line for that game was 37. The game did NOT go Over (Badgers won 20-14), although I should point out that it was close. Wisconsin’s defense is great against the run, but it has faced two terrible passing teams (Illinois, Army) in a row. They allowed 239+ yards passing in three of the first four games and as we saw last week, the passing game is the strength of this Purdue offense (334 YPG). This one gets Over. 10* Over Wisconsin/Purdue

8* Over Purdue/Iowa (3:30 ET): There’s only one team left that has yet to go Over in a single game this season and that’s Purdue (5-0 Under), who is coming off a bye and will have its toughest game yet this weekend as they visit Iowa City to face the unbeaten Hawkeyes. Iowa is having a dream season thus far. Fueled by a +15 turnover differential (#1 in the country), they are 6-0 SU and ranked #2 in the polls. They are off a spirited, come from behind win over Penn State (in what was a matchup of two top five teams). With them in a bit of a letdown spot, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hawkeyes give up more points than usual this week. 

Purdue had no problem scoring in their first two games. They opened with a 30-21 win over Oregon State, then a 49-0 beatdown of hideous UConn. But since that time, the Boilermakers have been held to just 13 points in three consecutive games. One of those was a win, at home vs. Illinois, but they lost to both Notre Dame and Minnesota. The totals keep getting lower each week and now I think we’re at the point where there’s a great value in bucking their Under trend. The Boilermakers did put up 448 yards in their last game, so scoring only 13 points was a major disappointment. Inefficiency in the red zone really cost them. 

The Boilermakers’ offense is healthier than it’s been at any point this season and a QB change was made prior to the Minnesota game. Aiden O’Connell (357 yards vs. Minnesota) looked a lot better than the inconsistent Jack Plummer. Purdue will need to be firing on all cylinders against the Iowa defense and I do believe they’ll score a surprising number of points here. They beat Iowa last year 24-20 in West Lafayette. The Hawkeyes have scored at least 23 in every game this season, so if Purdue gets to 20 (and I think they can!), then this will be an easy Over. Iowa’s L2 games both did go Over the total. 8* Over Purdue/Iowa

8* Under Pitt/Va Tech (3:30 ET): There has been a tremendous amount of upheaval in the ACC this season with preseason favorites like North Carolina, Miami and Clemson (!) all losing two or more times before we even hit the second weekend of October. The league has only two ranked teams, one of them undefeated Wake Forest (the other is NC State), but don’t discount a Pitt team that should be considered the favorite right now to win the Coastal Division. The Panthers are 4-1 (only loss to Western Michigan!) and averaging a FBS high 52.4 PPG. They are one of just two teams to be 5-0 Over entering the weekend. 

But this week, the Panthers should encounter some resistance as they head to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech. From a situational perspective, the spot looks great for the road team. They are off a bye while Va Tech is off a close loss to Notre Dame. But I definitely see Pitt’s lofty scoring average coming down over the next few weeks. Va Tech is giving up just 18.6 PPG on the year and every game except Notre Dame stayed Under the total. Until the final four minutes, they had held the Fighting Irish to just 21 points. Last week was the first Va Tech game this year to feature more than 50 total pts scored. 

Pitt has played some terrible teams like UMass and New Hampshire. They scored 77 against the latter, which is a big reason why their season average is so high. This total is right in line with the oddsmakers’ projections for all of the Panthers’ previous games, so the market sees no reason to react to the shocking amount of scoring we’ve seen thus far from Pat Narduzzi’s team. The Under is 4-0 in their last four trips to Blacksburg and I’m not sure either team gets to 30 points in this one. 8* Under Pitt/Va Tech

8* Under Western Kentucky/Old Dominion (3:30 ET): WKU is the only other team besides Pitt to have a perfect 5-0 Over record. My mindset should be pretty obvious with this totals report as I think these streaks are due to come to an end. The Hilltoppers, who have been involved in nothing but shootouts thus far, are off a heartbreaking 52-46 home loss to unbeaten UTSA last week. This week’s opponent, Old Dominion, is nowhere near as prolific as UTSA or most other previous WKU opponents. This should be the Hilltoppers’ best defensive performance since holding Tenn Martin to 21 points in the season opener. 

Or it could end up being even better than that! Old Dominion, like WKU, is off to poor start to the 2021 season. The Monarchs are 1-5 SU with the lone win coming against FCS Hampton. Take that win away and they’ve averaged only 19 PPG. They were held to just 13 points last week in Marshall, the third straight loss by seven points or less. That game ended up going to overtime. ODU led 10-6 with just under three minutes in regulation. Even with just 314 yards last week, it wasn’t even ODU’s worst effort in total offense this season as Liberty held them to 201 yards and UTEP held them to 282. This will be the highest total for any ODU game so far this season. 

I do not expect Western Kentucky to be able to run the ball at all in this game. The Hilltoppers come in averaging only 93 YPG on the ground at 3.9 YPC. On the road, those averages drop to 57 YPG on 2.5 YPC. It just so happens that Old Dominion has done a great job stopping the run at home, allowing only 2.7 yards per carry. The Monarchs have allowed only one opponent - Liberty - to gain 400 total yards. Four of their games have seen 54 or less total points scored while only one has exceeded 62 points. 8* Under Western Kentucky/Old Dominion

10* Over Broncos/Steelers (1:00 ET): Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater suffered a concussion in last week’s loss to the Ravens and did not practice Wednesday. He is questionable to play here, which means it could be Drew Lock starting in his place. Lock’s career ATS record (11-7) pales in comparison to that of Bridgewater (who is 38-15 ATS as a starter), so that would be a downgrade going up against what is still regarded as a very good defense in Pittsburgh. But that Steelers’ defense is also pretty banged up at the moment. 

Denver’s 3-0 SU start came against teams that are currently a combined 2-10 SU (Giants, Jets, Jags). They were somewhat exposed in last week’s 23-7 loss to the Ravens. I find it interesting though that the Broncos, who were the only team in the league not to be favored in a single game last season, could end up being favorites for a fifth consecutive week here. They are in a much better position than Pittsburgh, who has lost three in a row after opening the season with an upset win in Buffalo that now feels like a distant memory. The Steelers look like they could be headed for their 1st losing season under Mike Tomlin. 

There are only four teams in the league that are 4-0 Under and these are two of them. Given that, the injuries and “iffy” QB situations on both sides (Big Ben has been BAD), I understand why this O/U is so low. But I feel it’s too low. You’re just not going to see many NFL totals of 40.0 or lower this season. Two of the Steelers’ last three games would have exceeded this total. Look for this game to sneak Over the total, somehow, someway. Both teams have key injuries in the secondary. 10* Over Broncos/Steelers

10* Over Akron/Bowling Green (12:00 ET): Bowling Green is the only 5-0 ATS team in the country and now finds itself favored for just the third time in its last 43 games. Normally, I might view this as an opportune time to fade. But I also have zero interest in taking an Akron team that is just 2-21 SU in its last 23 games, even if one of those victories came against the Falcons last season. (The other was this year vs. FCS Bryant). During that same time, the Zips are 0-19 SU and 1-18 ATS as underdogs! (They were 2-pt favorites LY vs. BGSU). I don’t think you can play either side here. So what is the play?

Well, in addition to being perfect against the spread so far, BGSU has also gone Under in all five of its games. They are one of just two 5-0 Under teams, Purdue being the other. Seeing as how the Falcons average only 17.2 PPG (they are 2-3 straight up), you may think I’m going to predict the Under trend to continue. Guess again! With Akron already having given up 45+ points three different times, I think BGSU is going to have its highest scoring game of the season this week. Just to further illustrate how awful the Zips truly are, this is the first time since 2015 that BGSU is favored by two touchdowns.

Talk about being due for Over; not only is BGSU one of just two teams in the country to be 5-0 Under right now, but the last five meetings with Akron (and 8 of the last 9) have stayed Under as well. The Zips’ win over BG last season is the only time in their last eight games that they did not give up at least 34 points. All we’re probably going to need from them here is 10 points. Every one of Akron’s games this year would have gone Over this total, which is incredibly low for a College Football game in 2021. 10* Over Akron/Bowling Green

8* Over Panthers/Cowboys (1:00 ET): Dallas is a last-second FG away from being 3-0. Since losing 31-29 to the Bucs on Opening Night, America’s Team has bounced back with wins over the Chargers (on a last second FG) and the Eagles Monday Night. The offense is coming off a 41-point effort and has run for an average of 179 yards in its two wins. You can’t forget about QB Dak Prescott either. He threw for over 400 yards against Tampa Bay. As expected, the Cowboys are very good offensively. 

Carolina is 3-0 SU for the first time since 2015 when it made the Super Bowl with Cam Newton as MVP. Like Dallas, the Panthers are also 3-0 ATS. Their defense is #1 in the league in yards allowed and #2 in scoring. But they’ve been fortunate to face two rookie QBs (one a backup) and Jameis Winston. This will be - by far - their toughest assignment of the young season. The team has gone Under in six straight games dating back to last season. But I see that streak coming to an end here. 

The Panthers will be without RB Christian McCaffery. However, QB Sam Darnold is off B2B 300+ yard games as he looks to win three straight starts for the first time in his career. The Cowboys’ defense gives up over 400 yards per game, so even without McCaffery, the Panthers should move the ball and score. They would seem to have an advantage due to being off a “mini-bye” (played last Thursday) while Dallas played on MNF. But Prescott has averaged 347 yards passing his last three times playing on a short week. 8* Over Panthers/Cowboys

10* Over Virginia/Miami FL (7:30 ET): Miami was ranked #14 in the preseason, but “The U” has failed to impress so far. Their only wins have come against Appalachian State (by two) and FCS Central Connecticut State. Blowout losses to Alabama and Michigan State dropped the ‘Canes out of the rankings entirely and now they are playing without QB D’Eriq King. But I do think they’re going to be able to put a substantial number of points on the board this week. They scored 69 last week without King and now face a defense that’s given up 96 points the last two games. 

Virginia’s offense has put up over 1,000 yards in the last two games, but that hasn’t been enough as the woeful defense surrendered 1,173 yards and they lost both games by 20 points! North Carolina blitzed them for 59 points and almost 700 yards. The Cavaliers outgained Wake Forest last Thursday, but that didn’t matter in a 37-17 loss. The defense let the Demon Deacons score on each of its first seven possessions! Again, no matter who is in at QB tonight for Miami, they are going to be able to move the ball and score. 

But Virginia can obviously move the ball as well. QB Brennan Armstrong has already twice set a career-high in passing yardage this season. In fact, he set a school record with 554 yards vs. UNC. This is the nation’s top passing offense (430.5 YPG) and Armstrong also leads his team in rushing (552 yards in four games). Look for the Hoos to score far more than they did LW vs. Wake when they had four 30+ yard drives end with no points (two went 67+ yds). Both defenses have given up 37+ points twice, so I'm surprised both teams are 3-1 Under. This has “shootout” written all over it. 10* Over Virginia/Miami FL

10* Under Eagles/Cowboys (8:20 ET): Sometime during the course of today, you’ll probably hear that seven of the NFL’s eight primetime games have gone Over the total. I had the one Under, which was Thursday’s Carolina-Houston game. There have been a lot of high-powered offenses featured in these primetime games, which makes sense as that is who the NFL wants on national TV. But when I think “high-powered” I don’t necessarily think of the Jalen Hurts-led Eagles. I’m taking the Under on MNF. 

The Cowboys have a high-powered offense, but here they’ll be facing an Eagles’ defense that has surrendered a total of 23 points in two games. Philly is allowing just 4.4 yards per play and 283 yards per game. The teams they’ve faced - Atlanta and San Francisco - certainly aren’t terrible offensive teams. Both games also stayed Under. Going back to the middle of last season, the Under is 9-3 in the Eagles’ last 12 games. I think this defense can do a good job of holding Dallas in check tonight. The Cowboys only scored 20 points in last week’s win over the Chargers. 

This is Dallas’ 1st home game of the season and they’re hoping the recent trend continues of the home team dominating this NFC East rivalry. The home team is 5-0 SU the L5 meetings. I think the Cowboys defense is going to play better than expected tonight. Hurts only completed 12 passes last week and just one to a WR after the 1Q. The Eagles have not scored more than 23 points in any of the previous four meetings with the Cowboys. 10* Under Eagles/Cowboys

10* Under Texans/Panthers (8:20 ET): Houston is going into Thursday night with a backup QB, Davis Mills, who I saw Sunday and wasn’t the least bit impressive. Just the third QB to be drafted out of Stanford in my lifetime, the rookie played the entire 2H vs. Cleveland and completed just 8 of 18 pass attempts for 102 yards and a touchdown. Now, on a short week, he’s going to be facing a much better defense and it’s really difficult to envision a scenario where the Texans put up a lot of points. 

Carolina is a surprising 2-0 after holding New Orleans to seven points and 128 total yards on Sunday. Remember that the Saints put up 38 points, led by Jameis Winston’s five touchdown passes, in Week 1 vs. Green Bay. So that was a really impressive performance last week by Matt Rhule’s defense. This is the first time the Panthers have ranked #1 in the league in total defense since Week 10 of the 2017 season. Thus far they have given up an average of just 190 YPG and a total of only 21 points. 

But with Sam Darnold as their starting QB, there’s still questions about this Carolina offense. The Panthers have covered seven straight road games, but are also 0-6 ATS their L6 Thursday games, so something will have to give here. On the same note, the Panthers are 5-0 Under their L5 regular season games while Houston is 4-0 Over its L4. Considering how few points I expect the Texans to score here, Under has to be the call as you’ve got a rookie QB making his 1st career start (on a short week!) against the league’s top rated defense. The Over is 6-0 in NFL primetime games so far this season. We’re due for an Under. 10* Under Texans/Panthers

10* Under Marshall/Appalachian State (7:30 ET): Marshall was carried by its defense last season as that unit led the country in scoring (13.0 PPG allowed) and at stopping the run (96 YPG). That got them to the C-USA Title Game, but a three-game losing streak at the end of the season cost former HC Doc Holliday his job. I thought the coaching change was a bit shocking, but there’s no denying that they’ve seen offensive improvement in Huntington under Charles Huff. Through three games, the Thundering Herd is averaging 43.7 PPG! How ironic then that the defense let them down last week in a 42-38 loss to East Carolina! 

Appalachian State lost its place as the standard-bearer of the Sun Belt last season, finishing second to Coastal Carolina in the East Division. When they faced the Chanticleers, the Mountaineers led most of the way but ended up losing 34-23 in Conway. Their only other two losses were to Louisiana and … Marshall! The loss to Marshall took place in Huntington and saw ASU get held to a season low of 7 points. This year, ASU is off to a 2-1 start including a win over the same East Carolina team that just beat Marshall. Following a 25-23 loss to Miami, the Mountaineers bounced back with a 44-10 thrashing of FCS Elon last week. 

I don't think this game will be as low-scoring as last season, but I still like the Under. Last week’s performance by the Marshall defense was an aberration. The team led 38-21 going into the 4Q only to be outscored 21-0 the rest of the way. East Carolina games almost always end up being high-scoring. Appalachian State will be the best defense that the Thundering Herd have faced thus far. The Mountaineers have yet to allow more than 25 points in any game. Of the six games these teams have played, only one (Marshall-ECU) saw more than 56 total pts scored. 10* Under Marshall/Appalachian State

8* Under Raiders/Steelers (1:00 ET) My Under bet Monday night looked pretty solid for three quarters. There were only 27 points scored between the Ravens and Raiders, a matchup where the oddsmakers’ total was a lofty 50.5. But then came a deluge of 4Q points with the teams doubling the scoring. By the time overtime was needed to settle things, the game had already gone Over. It was the sixth straight regular season game to go Over for Las Vegas, the longest active streak in the league right now. That’s going to be tested this week as they are matched up against one of the better defenses in the league. 

The Steelers pulled out a surprise 23-16 win in Buffalo last Sunday. The game got off to a rocky start for the Black & Gold when they allowed a long return after the opening kickoff. But they held the Bills to just a field goal on that drive and would allow only one TD the entire game. That was a very good offense they faced, much better than what they’ll see here. At the same time, Pittsburgh’s offense remains a bit of a concern with an aging Ben Roethlisberger behind center. They gained only 252 total yards vs. the Bills and the only offensive TD that they scored came with good starting field goal position. 

RB Josh Jacobs is out for the Raiders this week, so it’s going to be difficult to move the ball on the ground. Not that I would expect them to be all that effective doing so, even with Jacobs on the field. There was major turnover with the LV offensive line this offseason and we all saw what the Steelers’ defensive front was able to do to Bills QB Josh Allen last week. A short week and early start time do the Raiders no favors either. However, they have had the Steelers’ number in recent years, covering six of the last seven meetings with five outright upsets. So let’s go with the Under as neither team will move the ball all that effectively. 8* Under Raiders/Steelers

10* Over Giants/Football Team (8:20 ET): So with last week’s 27-13 loss to Denver, the Giants have now gone Under in eight consecutive games (dating back to last season, obviously). But this week’s total is even lower than Week 1 and as you can see, the G-Men and Broncos were very close to going Over the total last Sunday. They would have gone Over had both teams not fumbled inside the red zone. The Giants’ fumble proved especially costly as they were only down 17-7 in the second half when QB Daniel Jones gave the ball away. Jones did throw for 267 yards though and account for two scores.

Washington is already on its second starting QB as Taylor Heinicke will replace Ryan Fitzpatrick. This move comes not by choice, but rather because of injury. Fitzpatrick will miss as many as eight weeks due to sustaining a hip injury in last week’s 20-16 loss to the Chargers. I thought, given the circumstances, that Heinicke performed admirably last week. He completed 11 of 15 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown. Remember that he started last year’s playoff game against Tampa Bay. While the Football Team went down to the (eventual Super Bowl champion) Bucs that day, 31-23, don’t blame Heinicke. He actually threw for 300+ yards in the loss. The Giants’ defense he faces this week isn’t as good as the Bucs .. or the Chargers for that matter. 

Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley is listed as questionable, but is expected to play Thursday. Given the Giants’ history against Washington, maybe they don’t even need him. They’ve beaten their old division rival five straight times, the last four all coming with Jones as the starter. Jones has thrown for eight touchdowns in the four wins. Look for him to develop more of a rapport with WR Kenny Golladay, who had four catches for 64 yards last week. Based on them allowing 400+ yards last week against the Chargers, I think it’s fair to say this Washington defense may not be as strong as it was a year ago. These teams are a combined 14-4 their L18 TNF games. 10* Over Giants/Football Team

10* Under Ravens/Raiders (8:15 ET): Over the course of training camp, no team was hit harder by injuries than Baltimore. The running back position in particular has suffered some incredible attrition. It began with JK Dobbins to a season-ending knee injury. Then Dobbins’ backup Justice Hill suffered an Achilles injury. With their two top running backs done for the year before a meaningful game had even been played, the Ravens next turned to Gus Edwards. Guess what? He too suffered a serious knee injury in practice Thursday, the same day that CB Marcus Peters also sustained a knee injury! 

With all these injuries at the RB position, there will be tremendous pressure on QB Lamar Jackson to produce this year. Being that he is a former MVP, it’s not like Jackson is doomed. But Jackson and the offense took a step back in 2020 despite facing a relatively weak set of pass defenses. They dropped down to 27.3 PPG overall and 25.2 on the road. Had it not been for a high success rate on third downs and in the red zone, the offense's numbers probably would have dropped even further. With Ty’Son Edwards and Le’Veon Bell set to be the Ravens’ only available running backs, that dimension of the offense simply will not be as strong as it was in years’ past. 

Las Vegas will finally get to play in front of fans in Allegiant Stadium (opened last year) Monday night. QB Derek Carr might have a 4-2 SU record on MNF but has posted a 46.0 QBR in those games, which is well below average. One area that I am not really worried about Baltimore is on defense. They allowed only 18.5 PPG last year. The Raiders’ receiving corps is not very good and the running game will probably be worse in 2020 due to the loss of three starting offensive linemen from a year ago. Yes, the Over was 13-3 in LV games last season. But now it’s 2021 and things will be different. 10* Under Ravens/Raiders

10* Over Bears/Rams (8:25 ET): The Rams went Under in every home game last season (8-0). But with an offense that should be better and a defense that is likely to be worse (compared to last season, that is), I look for that streak to come to an end in Week 1 vs. the Bears. Matthew Stafford is now the QB1 for the Rams, replacing Jared Goff. This is a clear upgrade in my eyes. Stafford lost RB Cam Akers to an injury in the preseason, but the Rams have averaged 32.2 PPG in four season openers under HC Sean McVay. Even with the Bears’ defense being well regarded, look for the Rams to put up points on SNF. 

Bears HC Matt Nagy has made the curious decision to go with Andy Dalton as his starting QB for the season opener. Everyone in Chicago wants to see Justin Fields, but they’ll have to wait apparently. Dalton’s career record in primetime may not be good, but I do think the Bears will score more than expected in this game. That may sound strange considering the Rams had the top ranked defense in the league a year ago. But down the stretch last season, Nagy got his offense humming. They scored 30+ points in four straight games, something that no other Bears team had ever done and that was with Mitch Trubisky playing quarterback. 

This is actually the fourth straight season that these teams will be playing in primetime. The home team has won every time with the Rams holding a 2-1 SU/ATS series edge. All three games have stayed Under, none of them seeing more than 34 total points scored. But it’s a new season with new players and I really think it’s going to be different this time around. I don’t think either defense will be as good as last year. The Rams lost four starters on that side of the ball to free agency. The Bears’ secondary is a real weak spot and remember Stafford knows this team well. 10* Over Bears/Rams

10* Under Louisville/Ole Miss (8:00 ET): Well, the big news here is that Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin will NOT be on the sidelines due to testing positive for COVID-19. This is certainly not a position the Rebels expected to be in after Kiffin had announced, just earlier this month, that the program had achieved a 100% vaccination rate. In the wake of this shocking news, I’m really surprised that we’ve seen little movement with either the side or the total. You have to think Kiffin’s absence on the sideline will loom large. The total has remained extremely high and thus I’m going with the Under Monday night. 

The Ole Miss offense was very good last year and figures to be again in 2021. But not having Kiffin will impact this side of the ball more than it will to the defense. It was only about four months ago that the O-Line coach was fired after the Spring Game. As of press time, it is not even known who will be serving as Ole Miss HC for this game. What is known is they are facing a Louisville defense that ranked fourth in the ACC in yards allowed last year. Seven starters are back from that group, which should be strong yet again. The Ole Miss defense also figures to be better than it was in 2020, if only because it can’t be any worse. 

The Rebels had the lowest ranked defense in the SEC a season ago. While there are definitely some great defenses in that conference, Ole Miss definitely struggled. With an offense that was excellent and a defense that was terrible, Rebels’ games averaged 77.5 PPG last season. I don’t think we’re getting to that number Monday night. Through Saturday’s games, the Under is 47-26-1 this CFB season. Even if Kiffin were coaching, this number seems like a “tough ask” in the opening game. 10* Under Louisville/Ole Miss

8* Under Alabama/Miami FL (3:30 ET): We all know about Alabama. Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide are off another championship season and will be favored for the 81st straight time this week as they open the 2021 season against #14 Miami. It speaks volumes that the Tide are this large of a favorite against a top 15 team at a neutral setting. But then again, they are 11-2 ATS in season openers under Saban. When faced with a ranked opponent in the first game, ‘Bama is a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS with every win coming by double digits. In fact those six wins were by an average of almost 24 PPG! Atlanta has been kind to Saban through the years. 

So this is probably not the appropriate time to make the annual declaration that “The U is back!” Miami is just 3-10 ATS vs. teams ranked #1 or #2 going back to ‘93. But I do think that the Hurricanes’ defense can keep the team in it and thus ensure a pretty low-scoring game. This Alabama offense is YOUNG. There are 15 first or second year players on the two-deep with that unit, including QB Bryce Young, three offensive linemen and four wide receivers. Plus you’ve got a new playcaller in Bill O’ Brien. Meanwhile, Miami’s defense is a lot more experienced than it was a year ago. 

Of course Alabama’s defense will be pretty good too! They had 21 sacks over the final five games last year. They too are experienced with seven starters back. It is thought there are four future NFL starters among the linebacking group. Miami QB D’Eriq King is very good, but this one will be one of the best defenses he’s ever faced. He’s also coming off knee surgery. The Canes won’t score much. 8* Under Alabama/MIami

10* Over Bowling Green/Tennessee (8:00 ET): It’s been a LONG time since Bowling Green last tasted victory. You’d have to go all the way back to November 2nd, 2019 when they defeated Akron 35-6. The MAC was the last conference to commence play in 2020 so the Falcons played just five games last season. Not only did they lose all five, but the closest the Falcons got to anybody was 25 points. They were outscored 225-57! It’s an eight-game losing streak that they’re on entering 2021. They are 3-14 SU the L2 seasons, both wins coming when favored. They are 0-9 SU/ATS on the road during that time.

Meanwhile, Tennessee is starting over...again. Josh Heupel will be the once proud program’s fifth coach since the dismissal of Phil Fulmer back in 2008. He inherits a team that went 3-7 SU in 2020 and lost seven of its last eight games. While nowhere close to the doldrums that Scot Loeffler finds himself in at BGSU, Heupel really has his work cut out for him in the rugged SEC. But for now, all he needs to do is beat up on a clearly overmatched opponent in the season opener. The Vols are massive favorites Thursday night in Knoxville with the line quickly approaching five touchdowns.

Tennessee didn’t do a lot of scoring last year. But I expect Heupel to look to put a lot of points on the board here. It’s an easy opportunity to impress the fanbase in the first game. Bowling Green’s defense allowed more than 300 yards per game rushing in 2020. So the Volunteers should be able to move the ball at will. Heupel is going with Michigan transfer Joe Milton III as his starting QB, ahead of Va Tech transfer Hendon Hooker and holdover Harrison Bailey. Bowling Green returns its starting QB from LY, Matt McDonald, and I expect his completion percentage to improve. The Falcons will score enough on a Vols defense that gave up 30.1 PPG LY to help send this one Over. 10* Over Bowling Green/Tennessee

8* Under Ohio State/Minnesota (8:00 ET): After losing to Alabama in the National Championship Game last January, Ohio State opens the new season ranked #4 in the country. They look to continue their Big 10 dominance on Thursday when they travel to face Minnesota. HC Ryan Day has done a tremendous job in Columbus and the 2020 squad was among the most explosive in the history of the program. But the Buckeyes have a new man under center, redshirt freshman CJ Stroud, who takes over for Justin Fields. With the new starting QB, I don’t think OSU is going to put a ton of points on the board … yet.

Minnesota was a disappointing 3-4 SU for PJ Fleck in 2020. That was a big drop off after going 11-2 SU in 2019. The Golden Gophers return most of their starters on offense, including QB Tanner Morgan. But Morgan’s top target, WR Chris Autman-Bell, suffered a leg injury in practice two weeks ago and is listed as a “game-time” decision for Thursday. I know that Mohamed Ibrahim, voted the Big 10’s best running back last year, is ready to go. But if the Gophers think this Ohio State defense is going to be as susceptible to the big play as it was last year, then they are in for a rude awakening.

This is a high total, likely based on how explosive the Ohio State offense was LAST season. But Fields is now in the NFL. I think there will be some early growing pains with Stroud. But the saving grace will be the improvement on the defensive end. There’s just no way the Buckeyes will rank 122nd in pass defense again. Morgan will struggle if Autman-Bell is out. His other primary target from last year, Rashod Bateman, is gone. Minnesota’s defense also figures to be better after allowing 40+ in the first two games of 2020. None of the last three meetings between these teams have seen more than 55 total pts scored. 8* Under Ohio State/Minnesota

8* Under Chiefs/Bucs (6:30 ET): So when these teams met in the regular season, they combined for 961 yards and all nine scoring drives went for at least 64 yards. Both offenses averaged 7.5 yards per play. Yet they finished with only 51 total points. That’s still a lot, but wasn’t enough to go Over a total of 59.0. While the stakes are much higher the second time around, the total is lower. But it’s still the second highest O/U line in Super Bowl history. The only one larger was four years ago when the Patriots played the Falcons. That game would have stayed Under had it not been for the Pats rallying from a 28-3 deficit to force overtime. Since ‘95, no SB w/ an OU line of 54.0 or higher has gone Over in regulation (5-0 Under). 

This game is being played in the Buccaneers’ home stadium. That doesn’t mean as much as it would in a “normal” year, but it’s worth noting the Bucs averaged fewer points per game at home than they did on the road this season. Those eight games averaged 52.4 PPG. Chiefs’ road games averaged more total points than their home games (54.6 PPG), but that’s still just below the O/U line here. Going back to the regular season matchup (which was here in Tampa), the Chiefs scored 17 first quarter points and Tyreke Hill had 13 catches for 269 yards. None of that will happen again. 

The Bucs are #1 in the league against the run and their defense really dominated the Packers up front in the NFC Championship Game. Like Green Bay, Kansas City is dealing with injuries along the offensive line. Obviously, everyone is going to expect a shootout on Sunday and will want to bet the Over, but like last year I’m going Under. The last two Super Bowls have gone Under. The Under is 22-9 since 2015 in Tom Brady starts where the total was 50+.  8* Under Chiefs/Bucs

9* Under Bucs/Packers (3:05 ET): Tampa Bay was able to eradicate some regular season “demons” last week, upsetting New Orleans 30-20 in the Divisional Round. I had the Under, which won by a far narrower margin (total closed at 53), and am now 2-0 in Bucs’ games this postseason. In the Wild Card Round, I faded them, laying a big number at Washington. Now they go from facing a team they lost to twice in the regular season to one that they defeated (albeit at home). Back on October 18th, the Bucs were my 10* Game of the Month as they crushed the Packers 38-10 as a 2.5-point home dog. 

You wouldn’t have known Green Bay was facing the best defense in the league last week as they rolled up 32 points in a two-touchdown victory over the Rams. Aaron Rodgers directed the Packers offense to 484 total yards, although the game was close (25-18) until he hit Allen Lazard with a 58-yard TD pass with just under seven minutes left. The Packers have now won seven in a row, scoring 30 or more points in all but one of those victories. Unlike the game in Tampa back in Week 6, they absolutely deserve to be favored here.

I was tempted to go with the Bucs this week, but considering they were underdogs at home for the first meeting, it could be argued that the value is on the other side of this NFC Championship Game matchup. Plus, as happy as I was to cash my 10* Game of the Month in October, that game was dramatically impacted by turnovers as the Bucs had a rare “pick-six” off Rodgers and a second INT was returned to the GB 2-yard line, setting up another easy TD. You could say the same about turnovers impacting last week’s win over the Saints where they forced FOUR, three of which were almost immediately converted into touchdowns as they started in “plus territory”. (They kneeled after the 4th, a drive which also started in Saints territory). But at the same time, it can’t be discounted that this Bucs’ defense (which is #1 in the league vs. the run) held GB to a season-low 201 total yards in that first meeting. It’s expected to be cold with a 50% chance of snow Sunday afternoon in Lambeau. 9* Under Bucs/Packers

8* Under Bucs/Saints (6:40 ET): The two regular season meetings between these teams produced 57 and 41 points. New Orleans won both handily, 34-23 and 38-3. The amount of scoring that took place in the first meeting (which was all the way back in Week 1) was a bit misleading when you consider the Saints got a defensive TD (pick-six) and two other scoring drives began inside the 35-yard line following TB turnovers.That’s why I took the Under in the rematch on November 8th, which cashed easily. The O/U line isn’t much different here and while the final score may not end up as lopsided, the number of total points will be similar. 

Going into that second meeting, New Orleans had a 7-0 Over record on the season. Since then, they’ve gone Under in 7 of 10 games including last week’s 21-9 Wild Card win against Chicago. The only TD the Saints allowed came on the final play of the game, a “garbage time” score if there ever was one. They held the Bears to just 239 total yards. While the Bucs’ offense is clearly superior to that of the Bears, note that two of the Bucs’ three lowest yardage games this season came against the Saints. They averaged just 252 YPG in the two losses. As I mentioned in last week’s analysis, New Orleans is top five in total and scoring defense this year. 

But Tampa Bay has a good defense too. In fact, they are #1 in the league at stopping the run, which comes in handy when facing Alvin Kamara. While they won easily, it’s not like the Saints’ offense was moving up and down the field last week. They’ve been held below 300 total yards four different times this season and three of those were with Drew Brees starting under center. One of them was in Week 1. The Saints’ last four playoff games have all gone Under.  These teams are obviously familiar with one another and I expect a relatively low-scoring third meeting. 8* Under Bucs/Saints

10* Under Browns/Chiefs (3:05 ET): The expectation here is for this to be a very high-scoring game. Just look at the total. It’s not only the highest of the weekend, but has a good shot to close as the highest total for ANY Divisional Round matchup in history! Even for the Chiefs, the current number would be the highest for any game this season. This is all due to Cleveland’s shocking performance last week where they upset the Steelers 48-37 in Pittsburgh. But as I’ll get into, there were plenty of “extenuating circumstances” that led to that high score. I believe this number is simply too high and I’m going Under. 

Last Sunday was quite a special night in Cleveland. The Browns won their first playoff game in more than a quarter century and did so in improbable fashion. They were up 28-0 at the end of the first quarter! How could that happen? Well, simply put, the Steelers imploded. On the very first play from scrimmage they snapped the ball into the end zone, allowing the Browns to recover and score a TD. After that, Ben Roethlisberger threw two 1Q interceptions, setting the Browns up in “plus-territory.” One drive began on the Steelers’ 15-yard line. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is not going to play as poorly as Big Ben did. Also, the Chiefs’ defense is pretty good! They allow just 22.3 PPG at home. 

While no one expects the Browns’ offense to duplicate LW’s performance, there is (rightly) some concern about the defense’s ability to stop Mahomes. Fortunately, they will be getting back two defensive backs - Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson - from the COVID list. The fact the Browns gave up so many yards passing last week is a bit misleading as Pittsburgh had no choice but to pass on almost every down. The Chiefs have not scored more than 33 points in any of their previous six games and the last time Mahomes was on the field, they scored just 17 against a not good Falcons defense. The Under isn’t just 15-7 the Browns L22 after scoring 30+ their previous game, it’s also 21-10 if they gave up 30+ in their previous game. 10* Under Browns/Chiefs

10* Under Ohio State/Alabama (8:00 ET): Both Ohio State and Alabama won their semifinal games in impressive fashion. Of course that was expected from the #1 ranked Crimson Tide, who were 19.5-point favorites, a historic spread for a game of that magnitude. That they “only” won 31-14 obviously did not appease all, thanks to a backdoor Notre Dame touchdown. Conversely, Ohio State’s 49-28 schellacking of Clemson came as a surprise, even to someone like me who played the Buckeyes as a 7.5-point underdog. That this spread - vs. a team superior to Clemson - is now pretty similar isn’t that surprising as obviously an adjustment had to be made based on OSU’s incredible semi final effort. 

By now, you certainly have heard that this is the highest O/U line for any National Championship Game in the BCS or College Football Playoff era. Again, that had to be expected given what we saw in the semis, particularly the Ohio State game. I, for one, was quite happy to hear the news as “Under” was my immediate reaction when seeing this number. You have to remember that the Clemson defense Ohio State torched on New Year’s Night was missing its top DB for the 1st half and its best player for the majority of the game, both due to targeting. 

Ohio State games, for the most part, have been really high scoring this year. Only the Big 10 Championship (vs. Northwestern) saw fewer than 63 total points scored. But none have seen more than 77 scored. I would be quite surprised if the Buckeyes hit their season average of 43.4 PPG here vs. Alabama. In the same vein, I don’t think the Crimson Tide will hit their season average of 48.2 PPG either. Only two Bama games all season - Ole Miss and the SEC Championship vs. Florida - would have gone Over this total. Those two opponents were two of the most “all offense, no defense” teams in the Power 5 this season, certainly from the SEC. This should close as the highest O/U line for either team all season. 10* Under Ohio State/Alabama

10* Under Bears/Saints (4:40 ET): For four consecutive weeks, Chicago put up 30+ points (something no Bears team had done since the 1960’s) with Mitch Trubisky at the helm. But then came last week’s disappointing effort vs. the Packers where they were held to just 16. Thanks to Arizona also losing, the Bears were able to “back in” to the playoffs as the 7-seed in the NFC, but I don’t think I’m exaggerating here when I call this the weakest team in the field (yes, even weaker than Washington). They face a VERY tall order in the Wild Card Round, having to travel to the Mercedes Benz Superdome to face the Saints. 

When looking at that run of 30+ point games, it’s very important to consider just WHO the Bears faced: Detroit, Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville. None of those are playoff teams and the defenses were among the worst in the league. Facing a good defense for the 1st time in a month, the Bears got held to not just 16 points, but only 4.8 yards per play. The Saints defense that Trubisky and company will face this week is one of the league’s best as it ranks top five in both scoring and yards allowed. Chicago is 1-6 SU vs. winning teams this season, averaging just 16 PPG. So last week, sadly, was nothing new.

The Saints offense is expected to get both RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas back, which sounds exciting. But the Bears’ run defense is tops in the league in terms of success rate and Kamara may not be operating at full strength after missing a week due to quarantine. While New Orleans is still thought of as this “offensive machine,” they operate at a very slow pace (29th in time between plays) and I think they know it’s not going to take many points to win here. Their L3 playoff games have all stayed Under. 10* Under Bears/Saints

8* Under Cincinnati/Georgia (12:00 ET): So five teams finished the NCAAF regular season unbeaten. Two - Alabama and Ohio State - are in the CFP. The other three all hail from the so-called “Group of Five.” Of course, only one of those teams is allowed in the New Year’s Six every year and this time it’s 9-0 Cincinnati. The Bearcats will try and accomplish what Coastal Carolina couldn’t (and maybe San Jose State won’t) and that’s finish the year undefeated, It won’t be easy though as they’re matched up with #9 Georgia, who has looked very good ever since its embarrassing loss to Florida, in the Peach Bowl. 

Georgia is ranked one spot lower than Cincinnati, but is a TD favorite as of press time. UGA is 3-0 SU since JT Daniels took over as the starting QB and produced its two highest scoring games of the year (49 and 45 pts) during that time. But keep in mind that Daniels and the Dawgs did this against the bottom of the SEC barrel, namely South Carolina, Miss State and Missouri. Cincy brings a formidable defense to Atlanta, one that gives up an average of only 16 PPG. Granted, that was against a weaker schedule than UGA faced, but remember there are lots of offenses from the American that can score in bunches. UCF is the only team that scored more than 24 on the Bearcats’ defense during the regular season. 

Georgia is no defensive slouch either, giving up just 19.9 PPG. I can say with full confidence that Cincy did not face a SEC-caliber defense this year. The closest was probably Tulsa in the AAC Champ Game and there the Bearcats were held to just 27 points, their lowest in any game besides the one vs. Army. The last time Cincy took on a team this talented, they were shut out 42-0 by Ohio State (last year). The Bearcats are probably hoping that UGA “forgets to bring their motivation” on New Year’s Day. Both teams saw plenty of totals lower than this one during the regular season. The AAC Champ Game total was just 45.0. 8* Under Cincinnati/Georgia

10* Under Florida/Oklahoma (8:00 ET): I think most people consider this year’s Cotton Bowl - between #6 Oklahoma and #7 Florida - to be the “best” matchup outside of the CFP. There’s a lot going on from a betting perspective. Florida, who is coming off B2B losses, got the bulk of the early money. But the line has since “jumped the fence” and as of press time, OU is now the slight favorite (which my own power ratings agree with). Betting on the total has been lopsided towards the Over, but you’d expect that based on the SEC Championship Game. This is currently the highest O/U line for any remaining bowl game. 

I personally think the O/U line is too high here. I’m aware that both offenses are averaging 41 PPG and that Florida’s defense was torched for 89 points in the L2 games (52 by Bama). But I don’t see that happening again here. Oklahoma has been held to “just” 27 points in its last two games, the Big 12 Championship vs. Iowa State and by Baylor. The Sooners have gone Under in three straight and it has been their defense taking away some of the spotlight from the offense down the stretch. Five of the last six Oklahoma opponents have been held to 21 points or less and the season-long numbers would look even better had it not been for a 4OT thriller against Texas. 

Florida has scored more than 30 points in every game this year, but I don’t see them hitting 40 and that’s key here with the number being so high. TE Kyle Pitts and the two top WRs are all sitting this game out, which will greatly affect the passing game. Yet, save for the SEC Championship Game, this is the highest O/U line for any Gators’ game this season. I’m not sure what happened in those L2 games as the defense really seemed to be turning a corner down the stretch (three straight games holding opponents below 20 points). It is worth noting Oklahoma’s offensive numbers are DOWN from LY. 10* Under Florida/Oklahoma

8* Over Bills/Patriots (8:15 ET): There are two six-game streaks on the line coming into this game. Buffalo has covered six in a row. New England has gone Under in six in a row. Here I am targeting the latter streak as the Patriots should be better offensively now that they’ve returned home (where they haven’t played in a month). The last two games saw them run into two of the better defenses in the league (Rams, Dolphins), both on the road, and they had little to no success. Buffalo is giving up 25.4 PPG on the road this season.

You’ll have to check out my 10* Game of the Week (play on the side) for a bunch of historical info on this spread. Bottom line: it’s not often that Buffalo is favored against New England, though this is the 2nd time this year it has happened. It’s even more rare to find them favored in Foxboro as they go for the 1st season sweep of the Patriots this century. New England hasn’t been a home dog of this magnitude since Tom Brady was a rookie. They haven’t been a division dog of 7 or more since that same 2001 season. They haven’t gotten this many points from any Buffalo team since Jim Kelly was playing QB in 1993.

I that first meeting this season, Cam Newton fumbled inside the red zone as the Patriots were looking to tie/go ahead. They lost 24-21 as a 4-point dog. The total for that game was only 41, so it did go Over. You may find it curious that the total is higher for the rematch as NE has gone Under in six straight. But this time around the Patriots defense won’t have former Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore, who is out for the year with a knee injury. The Buffalo offense also seems to be better now than it was back on Nov 1, the date of the first meeting. They’ve scored at least 26 points in every game since. 8* Over Bills/Patriots

8* Under Titans/Packers (8:20 ET): Two of the NFL’s more prolific offensive teams meet Sunday night at Lambeau Field where snow and wind are expected to be factors. Thus, I’m leaning towards this being a lower scoring game than what the oddsmakers are anticipating. Yes, we all know what an “Over machine” Tennessee has been since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB (19-4-1 O/U record!). But Green Bay has gone Under each of the last three weeks and this is a big number for such a high profile game. 

Given the weather conditions, expect to see a lot of Derrick Henry when the Titans have the ball. Of course, that figured to be the case anyway. But with the weather potentially being such a factor, the Titans prolific passing attack may be kept in check. The Packers’ defense ability to stop the run has been an issue for a while now, but they’ve gotten better as the season has worn on. I’m sure that slowing down Henry has been the main focus of practice all week long. The L3 games have seen GB allow an average of just 18.7 points and 311.7 yards. Over the L7 games, only one opponent (Colts) has scored more than 25 vs. the Pack. 

Tennessee has scored 30+ points in five straight games as they look to go to the playoffs for a second straight season. However, the L2 weeks have seen them benefit from facing weak opponents (Detroit, Jacksonville). Expect more resistance from a Packers team that can clinch home field advantage in the NFC with a win tonight. The Titans’ Over percentage is second highest in the league (behind only Las Vegas - ugh), but I’m willing to buck that trend here given the gravity of the game and likely weather conditions. 8* Under Titans/Packers

10* Over Rams/Seahawks (4:25 ET): These teams met back in Week 10 with the Rams emerging victorious by a score of 23-16. They were 3.5-point favorites at home. The stakes are much higher for this rematch as Seattle, not the Rams, can wrap up the NFC West with a win. LA is off a very embarrassing loss last week as they became the first team to fall to the Jets in 2020, doing so 23-20 as a 17-point home favorite. Obviously, they should come eager to atone for such an unthinkable result. But beating Russell Wilson in Seattle isn’t easy as they scored 40 points the last time they played here - against the Jets! 

That this game takes place up in the Pacific Northwest should have a profound effect on your analysis of the total. The Rams are 7-0 Under at home this season and they are the only team in the league yet to have a single home game go Over.  But they are 4-3 Over on the road as the offense averages 28.1 PPG, up a full TD from what they average at home. Similarly, the defensive numbers go up on the road. The Rams allow just 14.4 PPG at home, but 24.0 on the road, a big-time increase. So while Rams’ home games average just 35.5 PPG, their road games are at 52.1. Again that’s a severe difference.

Seattle has had two of its three lowest-scoring games in the past three weeks. Ironically, both games were against NFC East teams. But in between they did have the 40-point game vs. the Jets here at home. They are averaging 31.0 PPG at home for the year. Going into the 1st meeting with the Rams, the Seahawks had gone Over in six of their first eight games. Now they’ve gone Under in six straight. I say it's time for that streak to end. The O/U line for the first meeting closed at 53.5, a full TD higher than what it is here! Over the L3 weeks, the Seahawks defense has gotten to face three bottom five offenses. Not here. 10* Over Rams/Seahawks

9* Under Dolphins/Raiders (8:15 ET): These teams are seemingly headed in opposite directions. I played Miami last week as they beat the Patriots 22-12, their 8th SU win in the L10 games (they’ve also gone 9-1 ATS in that stretch). Las Vegas has lost four of five, the only win coming against the then-winless Jets on a last second “Hail Mary.” I went against the Raiders last Thursday when they fell in overtime to the Chargers. Normally, I might stick with the Dolphins’ bandwagon, but this will be LV’s third straight game at home and I don’t like how the line “jumped the fence” early in the week. It’s the total that’s catching my eye now.

What’s interesting about playing this total is that each of the Raiders’ last seven games have seen at least 49 total points scored and five of those seven have seen at least 57 total points scored. But Miami has seen 33 or LESS total points scored in four of its last five games (exception was vs. KC). So something will have to give. Considering Marcus Mariota could start for Las Vegas, I think this will be more of a “Miami-type game.” Even if Derek Carr is able to play, you’d have to be concerned about his injured groin facing one of the best defenses in the league.

Over their last 10 games, Miami has allowed more than 21 points to only two opponents - the Chiefs and Cardinals. This Dolphins’ defense has hit the “trifecta,” ranking 1st in the league in scoring (18.4 PPG allowed), takeaways (26) & 3rd down percentage (32.5%). Not only do the Raiders have an injured starting QB, but RB Josh Jacobs has averaged just 3.0 YPC since Week 10. But giving the home team a sliver of hope is the fact Miami has scored 22 points or less in four of its last five games. Tua Tagovailoa is still a rookie QB playing on the road. So look for this game to snap a 6-0 Over run in head to head meetings between these teams. 9* Under Dolphins/Raiders

10* Over Steelers/Bengals (8:15 ET): Pittsburgh is a heavy favorite Monday night despite B2B losses, both of which came in primetime games. But let’s not be too quick to forget this team was 11-0 SU before having to endure three professional football games in a 12-day span. That, more than anything else, is what “caught up to them” and caused them to drop two in a row. Tonight has all the makings of a “get well” game for the Black & Gold, especially on the offensive side of the ball as the Bengals defense they face tonight just allowed a 122.6 passer rating to backup QB Andy Dalton. Dallas, a bad team, scored 30 in that game. 

Normally, I’d be “all over” a double digit dog in primetime, but the Bengals seem a bit “untouchable” right now, especially with Ryan Finley now set to start at QB. Finley is the third different starting QB for the Bengals in the last five games. Joe Burrow’s injury effectively ended this team’s season as it’s been all downhill ever since. Cincinnati has lost five in a row, a streak that started against the Steelers. Burrow was hurt the following week and the Bengals have managed only three offensive touchdowns since. The defense had been okay, but then came the aforementioned effort last week vs. Dallas, a sign this game has the potential to get pretty ugly. 

This is one of the lowest totals you’ll see the entire NFL season. When the teams met five weeks ago, the O/U line was 45 and the game went Over as Pittsburgh won 36-10. A similar final score could be on tap tonight. The Bengals’ offense actually did move the ball a bit last week, only to fumble it away on each of the opening three possessions. But tonight is all about the Steelers’ offense getting back on track. As we saw in the 1st meeting, they could possibly come close to sending this one Over themselves. Cincy will give enough help to get it past the “finish line” as both teams end 4-game Under streaks. The Over is 5-0 in the Bengals’ L5 home games vs. a team w/ a winning road record. 10* Over Steelers/Bengals

8* Over Patriots/Dolphins (1:00 ET): Is there something I’m missing here? Because I feel the Dolphins are being severely undervalued in this spot, a key AFC East clash. Not that I mind. I’ve cashed Miami multiple times in 2020, the most notable win was obviously my 10* Game of the Year when they upset the Rams 28-17 here at home. Since their bye week last season, Brian Flores’ team has gone a league-best 19-6 ATS. The ‘Fins are 10-3 ATS this season, have covered eight of their last nine and were a winner for me last week +7.5 against the best team in the league, Kansas City. I feel they should be about a touchdown favorite here. 

This clearly isn’t the same New England team we’ve grown accustomed to seeing under Bill Belichick. The Patriots are just 6-7 SU and while technically not out of the playoff race, their reign of dominance over the AFC East (won division 17 of the last 19 years, including 11 straight) figures to end, possibly as early as Sunday. Even if the Pats were to win their final three games, it’s highly doubtful they’ll make the playoffs. It’s been awhile, so let me remind you that the last time we saw this team, they were thoroughly dominated in a 24-3 loss to the Rams.

A lot has changed since these teams met in Week 1. New England won that first game 21-11, but Tua Tagovailoa is now the Miami QB. Belichick has won 11 straight against rookie QBs, but don’t be surprised when the Dolphins have far more success on the offensive side of the ball here than they did in that first meeting. They put up 27 points last week vs. Kansas City. Of course, they also gave up 33 (despite forcing four turnovers). The Patriots figure to run the ball a lot here as they were successful doing so (217 yards) back in Week 1. This is a really low O/U and I see the Pats’ 5-game Under run coming to an end. 8* Over Patriots/Dolphins

9* Under Clemson/Notre Dame (4:00 ET): These teams combined for 87 points in the first meeting and this time Clemson will have Trevor Lawrence playing QB. So everyone is going to be expecting plenty of points in the ACC Championship Game between #2 Notre Dame and #3 Clemson. But don’t discount what both defenses are capable of doing here. Interestingly, Lawrence’s presence on the field for this rematch seems to be worth only a couple points to the spread (Clemson was -5 in South Bend), but the total is NINE points higher than the closing number from last month. I see lots of value on the Under in this one.

Since Lawrence returned to the field, Clemson has rolled to victories over Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. The Clemson offense put up 97 points in those two wins, but equally impressive is the fact the defense allowed just 27 total. Though Notre Dame was able to put up 47 (in overtime, remember), the Tigers are still allowing only 18.3 PPG for the season and remain an elite unit on that side of the ball. This is also their second look at the Notre Dame offense and I believe they’ll be better prepared to stop Ian Book and company. The Tigers weren’t just missing Lawrence last month, they were w/o three top defensive players including the most important (James Skalski), all of whom are back now. 

 What Notre Dame’s defense did against North Carolina a couple weeks ago may have been among the most impressive performances I’ve seen all season. Holding the Tar Heels to just 17 points and under 300 yards really is a “Herculean achievement” if I do say so myself. The Fighting Irish defense has been even stingier than Clemson’s this season, giving up only 17.1 PPG. There have been only three games this season where ND has allowed more than 21 points. They held Clemson RB Travis Etienne to just 28 yards on 18 carries in the first meeting. Remember that OT added 21 points to that final score in South Bend. The game was “only” 33-33 at the end of regulation. 9* Under Clemson/Notre Dame

10* Over Saints/Eagles (4:25 ET): Well, isn’t this the contrarian play? Even getting more than a touchdown at home, it feels as if the Eagles are getting too MUCH respect this week as they send out Jalen Hurts to make his 1st career NFL start against what might be the league’s best defense. The QB change, precipitated by the horrendous play of Carson Wentz, was needed. It’s a tough spot for Hurts, no doubt. But here’s the thing. What if he’s good? Certainly he can be no worse than Wentz was over the last month or so.

New Orleans doesn’t have many problems these days. They are 10-2 SU and in the driver's seat to earn homefield advantage in the NFC Playoffs. Even without Drew Brees, the Saints continue to hum along as they’ve won nine in a row, the last three coming with Taysom Hill as the starting QB. Brees is reportedly close to returning, but there’s no rush considering the Saints are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS WITHOUT him in the lineup the L2 seasons. The offense should score plenty here as they’ve run for 436 yards the L2 weeks. I certainly expect the Saints to score in the neighborhood of their season average of 28.9 PPG. 

So this is the lowest total on the board Sunday, which can’t be all that surprising with a rookie QB going against a defense that has allowed just two touchdowns and 44 total points in the L5 games. Plus these teams have combined to go Under in 11 straight games. But I believe the Saints can do virtually all the “heavy lifting” here and won’t be surprised if the Eagles score more than expected. Hurts is a bit of an “X-factor.” If New Orleans allows just 20 points here - and that is their season average - we should be in really good shape. I’ve waited all week to try and hit this number at its nadir, so here we go. 10* Over Saints/Eagles

9* Under Boise State/Wyoming (6:00 ET): I have been waiting for quite some time to play the Under on Boise State. Unfortunately, their last two games were both called off due to COVID. One was going to be a showdown with the only other Mountain West team still unbeaten in  conference play, that being San Jose State. The other cancellation was last Friday vs. UNLV, which would have been a sure win. The reason for my desire to take the Broncos Under the total isn’t just the fact they’ve gone Over in every game. It’s HOW they’ve gone Over - so many non-offensive touchdowns being scored. That can’t continue, can it? 

Case in point; three weeks ago I went with the Under when Boise hosted Colorado State. While the final score was 52-21 (in the Broncos’ favor) and thus went Over by 11.5 points, BSU scored a ridiculous FOUR non-offensive TDs in that game. Had they “only” scored two, that game would have stayed Under. Two of the four non-offensive TDs were returns of blocked punts. They also blocked a FG and returned that for a score! (What is this, the Chargers?) Not to be outdone, the Broncos returned a kickoff for a TD the following week vs. Hawaii. So while the team is averaging 40.0 PPG this season, that comes with a bit of an asterisk. 

Wyoming, who suffered the embarrassment of losing to New Mexico last week, has the defense to keep Boise State in check. They allow just 333.5 YPG, which is top 25 in the country. The Cowboys have allowed 17 points or less three times this season and in their only home game thus far, they held Hawaii to just 7 points. I think the public is going to be VERY tempted to take the Over here with such a “low” number, but it was set that way for a reason. Wyoming could be without its star running back (Xazavian Williams) and down to its third-string QB here. Boise State’s defense has allowed under 4.7 yards per play the L2 games. 9* Under Boise State/Wyoming

10* Over Patriots/Rams (8:20 ET): This particular play definitely flies in the face of results, both recent and long-term. The Under is 5-0 in Rams’ home games this season with their defense allowing an average of just 15.0 PPG. The Under is also 4-0 in the Patriots last four games overall. The Under is 6-2 in both teams’ last eight games. Now that we’ve got all that out of the way, let’s concentrate on the game at hand. The Rams scored 38 last week while the Patriots scored 45. Those were season-highs for both teams.

Now the Patriots definitely got a “boost” from their special teams & defense, both of which scored a TD last week vs. the Chargers. They also got a long punt return that set up a field goal. Obviously, I do not expect New England to score 45 points again this week. The key is I don’t expect their defense to play as well. The Over is 4-1 the Patriots L5 games after holding the previous opponent to 15 points or less. The Rams offense averages nearly 400 YPG and 6.0 YPP. QB Jared Goff threw for 351 on yards on Sunday, completing 37 of 47 passes. Going into last week, the Patriots defense was 31st in the league (2nd worst), allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt. I expect another big offensive game from the Rams. 

New England flat out shocked me in their dismantling of the Chargers. The offense may not have been THAT impressive, but it did go for 165 yards on the ground. The Rams’ defense has been pretty good at stopping the run lately, but hasn’t really faced an offense that runs the ball well, let alone a QB like Cam Newton. This could end up closing as the lowest O/U for a Rams game all season. The only “competition” would be games vs. the Giants and Washington (w/ Dwayne Haskins), two inept offensive teams. 10* Over Patriots/Rams

10* Under Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech (7:00 ET): So these ACC rivals were originally going to play last month, but that was nixed because of COVID. I was going to play the Under back then and will still do so now. Interestingly, the Panthers continue to go Over the total as the L2 weeks have seen them defeat Virginia Tech 47-14 and lose to Clemson 52-17. That makes it seven consecutive Overs for them, but I expect that streak to end Thursday mainly because of the opponent. It’s not Virginia Tech’s bad defense or Clemson’ explosive offense that they’ll be facing at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. Take the Under. 

Georgia Tech is a team simply playing out the string at this point. The Yellow Jackets are 3-6 and lost last week 23-13 to NC State. I’d be thrilled with a similar final score here, obviously. Georgia Tech’s offense is going to struggle to move the ball this week as they are up against a Pitt defense that leads the ACC in rushing yards allowed. No Panthers’ opponent has gone for more than 156 YPG on the ground this season and the average is just 93.1, which not only leads the conference but is also fifth best in the nation. If that’s not bad enough, Georgia Tech QB Sims has thrown as many INTs as he has TDs and his WR corps is banged up. 

While its year two under HC Geoff Collins, transitioning away from the triple option offense was going to take time at Georgia Tech. They’re just not “there” yet in terms of running a pro-style offense and have been held to 13 pts or fewer in three of their last five games. Pay no mind to the 55 points they scored two weeks ago vs. Duke as that was a crazy, turnover filled game. What we saw last week is more emblematic of the current state of the Yellow Jackets offense and this is the best defense they will have faced in a while. Pitt leads all of FBS with 43 sacks and their offense won’t need to do much here. This was a 20-10 game last season. 10* Under Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech

8* Over Eagles/Packers (4:25 ET): Seeing as how Aaron Rodgers and the Packers just put up 41 on a very good Bears defense, they should have little difficulty scoring plenty of points here against the sinking ship known as the Eagles. Philadelphia dropped to 3-7-1 SU w/ a home loss to Seattle Monday night. That 23-17 defeat saw them pull off one of the great “backdoor covers” of the season with a TD + 2 pt conversion in the closing seconds (closed +6.5). That made it three straight games where the Eagles have scored exactly 17 points. They’ve got to be due for some more scoring, right?

As it turns out, Philly’s last five games have all stayed Under. But that includes two games vs. the Giants (who are 30th in PPG), one vs. Dallas (who was starting Ben DiNucci) and lousy weather in Cleveland. I was a bit shocked to see the Eagles hold the high-scoring Seahawks to just 23 points Monday night. They were particularly stout against the run (gave up only 76 yards on the ground). But on a short week I don’t see them having much success against Rodgers, who has thrown 53 touchdown passes in his last 23 regular season games.

Rodgers and this Packers offense average 31.7 PPG and have gone over 30 in 8 of their 11 games. If they were to hit that season average (certainly plausible), then we won’t need much scoring from the struggling Carson Wentz. The only Green Bay game in the last six weeks to stay Under came against Jacksonville. When these teams played last year, the Eagles won 34-27 (at Lambeau!), led by Jordan Howard’s 87 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Howard was just activated from the practice squad this week. This one will sneak Over. 8* Over Eagles/Packers

9* Under Jaguars/Vikings (1:00 ET): Last week saw Minnesota overcome an 11-point deficit in the 4th quarter to beat Carolina 28-27. The game-winning TD came in the final minute as the Vikings are now 5-6 SU on the year. They also had to overcome B2B fumble return for touchdowns to get the win last week. It’s actually quite impressive to win a game when you give up multiple defensive scores. It also means that the amount of scoring from that game was a bit misleading. With the Over now 6-0 in Minnesota home games, this total is pretty high and it’s a good time to bet the Under as they’re facing an opponent that’s bottom five in scoring.

I’m actually a bit surprised to see how much scoring Jacksonville has done lately. They’ve hit 20 in four of the last five games, the lone exception being a date with Pittsburgh’s top-rated defense, who held them to three points. Mike Glennon is now the starting QB for the 1-10 Jags, losers of 10 straight.. While his 1st start since 2017 went “okay” last week, Glennon was a bit lucky to be in position to tie the Browns late in the game. The Jags scored a late TD after a pretty questionable roughing the passer call to pull within two. Obviously you know they missed the subsequent 2-point conversion attempt.

Two of Jacksonville’s scoring drives last week totaled 44 yards. So they were probably lucky to score 25 points. They probably won’t be as lucky this week facing a Vikings defense that allowed only one touchdown last week and 10 points that weren’t off turnovers. Only two of Jacksonville’s last nine games have seen more than 52 total pts scored and the Under is 2-0 for them this season when the O/U line is above 50.0. 9* Under Jaguars/Vikings

8* Over Texas A&M/Auburn (12:00 ET): Auburn should play a lot better this week as they are back home at Jordan-Hare as opposed to facing Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The difference in play from the Tigers at home vs. on the road is quite striking as they are averaging 34.3 PPG here at home and just 19.0 PPG on the road. They’ve put up at least 29 points in every home game thus far and it was just a few weeks ago they hung 48 on an LSU defense that just held Texas A&M to only 20 last week. I like the Over in this matchup.

About that A&M offensive performance last week. They were shockingly held below 300 total yards and to only offensive TD by LSU and that was in College Station. That’s a big warning sign going into this difficult road game, but I hardly expect the Aggies to be shut out Saturday afternoon. Last week was the second lowest-scoring effort of the season and could have had something to do with the unusual layoff (hadn’t played in three weeks) due to COVID. In three of the previous four games, A&M scored more than 40 points.

Therefore, even though the Under is 7-1 in all Auburn games this season (including 5-0 the L5), this number appears to be way too low. Every Texas A&M game since they faced Vanderbilt - the lowest scoring team in the SEC - has had an O/U line of at least 54 points and four of those six games have seen at least 51 total points scored. For Auburn, this is their lowest O/U line since an Arkansas game (won 30-28) that produced their lone Over of the season. Each of the L5 totals have been 51 pts or higher w/ three at 63.5 or higher. This is all about VALUE to me. 8* Over Texas A&M/Auburn

9* Under Chargers/Bills (1:00 ET): I realize this is a “total” contrarian move with the Chargers having gone Over in each of their last seven games and the Bills doing so in their last three. But it’s a high number. For the Chargers, the team that has gone Over in seven straight, there’s a chance this O/U line could close as the highest for any game so far this season. (It’s been as high as 54.5 at some shops earlier in the week). There’s been only one previous Chargers’ game this year where the O/U line closed north of 50.

There have definitely been some “extenuating” circumstances helping these Chargers’ games go Over of late. For instance, each of the last two weeks they’ve had a punt blocked after their first possession! Both times the punt block led to their opponent scoring a touchdown. Despite that occurrence, it looked liked the game vs. Miami two weeks ago was still going to Under. But LA scored a “garbage time” TD in the final two minutes to send it Over. Last week against the Jets, the Chargers scored a defensive TD. Plus there was a safety at the end of the game.

Buffalo is off its bye week. They probably needed it considering the manner in which they lost to Arizona the prior week (Hail Mary). The Bills are more used to these high totals. But they are not immune to a poor offensive game. Before busting out against the two NFC West teams (Arizona, Seattle) the L2 games, they’d scored 24 or less four straight games. The Under has cashed the last five times the Bills have been off a SU loss. Also, the Chargers are 39-19-1 Under the L59 times they’ve been off a win. 9* Under Chargers/Bills

9* Under TCU/Kansas (8:00 ET): Kansas is not having a good year, to say the least. The Jayhawks are 0-7 SU for HC Les Miles and the best they’ve been able to do at the betting window was a push against West Virginia (on 10/17) as a 21-point underdog. Other than that, they are 0-6 ATS. They are also 6-0-1 Over this season, the push coming back in Game #2 vs. Baylor (a game I cashed Baylor). It’s been five straight Overs since with KU giving up a ton of points in the process. Finally, this week they face an opponent that’s probably NOT going to put up a ton of points. TCU comes in averaging just 24.0 PPG. 

Three times this season, the Horned Frogs have scored 14 points or less in a game. The most recent was two weeks ago at West Virginia, a 24-6 loss. In that game, they were held below 300 total yards. They weren’t that much better the week prior against Texas Tech (343 yards) despite putting up 34 points on Texas Tech. They basically had three big offensive plays in that game. There have been 20+ players lost to season-ending injuries and that doesn’t even include COVID. This is a young team too; they have just nine scholarship seniors on the roster. QB Duggan has just 5 TD passes all season. 

TCU figures to score more than “usual” this week, but what about the Kansas offense? The Jayhawks are last in the Big 12 in scoring offense at just 15.1 PPG. (TCU is second worst, for the record). The most points that Kansas has scored in a game all season is 23 (the opener vs. Coastal Carolina) and they’ve been held to 17 pts or less in five of the last six. Three weeks ago, I had an Under on KU that looked to cash, but they scored the ultimate “garbage time” TD (no time remaining), down 62-3. They won’t give up that many this week (as they’re not facing Oklahoma). The two lowest scoring teams in the Big 12 go Under. 9* Under TCU/Kansas

8* Under Texans/Lions (12:30 ET): I also like this Texans-Lions game to stay Under the total. While I do believe the Lions’ offense is going to bounce back from last week’s dreadful effort, the bar for “improvement” is low. They averaged just 3.4 yards per play in the shutout loss and gained fewer than 200 yards total. Those numbers will be way up this week vs. a Houston defense that not only ranks 2nd to last in yards allowed, but also just gave up 6.6 yards per play to New England. Still, it won’t be enough for this game to turn into a shootout. 

Houston’s offense has become pretty one-dimensional, failing to go over 100 yards rushing in four of its last five games. They got enough Deshaun Watson last week to overcome the Patriots 27-20, but that was still an Under. Two week ago, the Texans could only score 7 points in Cleveland (admittedly poor weather conditions), but it’s worth noting this offense is averaging just 22.7 PPG for the season. The Lions’ defense was a bright spot last week as it held Carolina to just 7 pts in the 1st half and 17 total before a 3-yard drive resulted in a late FG.

All four Lions’ home games have gone Over so far, but there’s a good chance this one has the highest closing line. They too are averaging just 22.7 PPG this season, the same number as the Texans’ offense. On the other side of the ball, the last two week have seen this Lions’ defense allow just 10 total points in the first half. The Texans’ defense, while still pretty bad, has allowed just 10 and 20 points its last two games. 8* Under Texans/Lions

10* Over Rams/Bucs (8:15 ET): So the Rams have gone Under in six straight games. That’s not easy to do in today’s NFL. The defense has been great, allowing 16 points or less in four of those six games. And no longer can you say they’ve just been capitalizing on a slew of poor offensive teams. Last week, they held high-powered Seattle to just 16 points, which was a season-low for the Seahawks. Just to illustrate how impressive last week’s defensive performance was, Seattle has scored at least 28 pts in every other game this season. But LA is about to be tested again here as they face Tom Brady & the Bucs Monday night. 

It was two weeks ago that Tampa Bay got embarrassed here at home in a 38-3 loss to the Saints. That was on the heels of another sub-par effort in primetime, which they won, but only 25-23 as 13-pt favorites against the Giants. So a lot of people were questioning this team as it made the trip to Carolina last week. But Brady and company silenced the doubters with a truly dominant effort. They crushed the Panthers 46-23 and were +357 in yardage. It was the 4th time since the start of October that the Bucs scored at least 38 points in a game. They come in averaging nearly 30 PPG (29.6), sixth most in the league. 

The Rams are 4-0 Under at home this year. But this game is in Tampa Bay. It’ll be their fifth time in the last nine weeks playing in the Eastern Time Zone. Not only does the number of points per game the Rams allow go up on the road (to 23.2), so does their own scoring average (up to 26.4). That’s the key here. The Over is 5-0 the L5 times the Rams have been an underdog w/ four of those games taking place on the road.  The Bucs averaged 7.1 yards per play last week. This may not be the shootout we got from these teams LY (55-40 Bucs win!), but we only need half that number of points to go Over here. 10* Over Rams/Bucs

8* Under Packers/Colts (4:25 ET): Green Bay barely escaped with a 24-20 win over Jacksonville last week. This is a team that thrived in close situations a season ago, going an extraordinary 9-1 SU in one-score games. That’s how you end up w/ a 13-3 SU regular season despite a rather pedestrian +63 point differential. Though just nine games, this year’s Packers have already outscored opponents by 53 points as they are averaging more than 30 points while turning it over only 5 times (second fewest). So you can definitely make a case that they’ve improved rather than regressed.

But here the Packers are going to be up against perhaps the stingiest defense in the entire NFL. The Colts rank 1st in total defense coming into this game, allowing just 290.4 YPG. They are #2 against the pass, #3 against the run and #4 in scoring. Last week they held the high-powered Titans below 300 total yards and to just 17 points. Don’t forget the last time Green Bay faced a defense ranked near the top of the league. That was Tampa Bay, who held them to just 10 points and 201 total yards. As great as he is, this probably won’t end up as a stellar game for Aaron Rodgers. The Colts defense has allowed the second fewest TD passes (11) and the lowest passer rating in the league.

Indianapolis winning so comfortably against the Titans is owed to a TD that came off a punt block. So they “really” only scored 24 last Thursday. Speaking of special teams touchdowns, the Packers allowed one - a 91-yd punt return - LW vs. Jacksonville. So their defense “really” only gave up 13 points. That’s a week after allowing just 17 (to San Fran) with most of that scoring coming in “garbage time.” The Under is 16-5 in Indy’s last 21 games vs. teams w/ winning records. 8* Under Packers/Colts

10* Under Jets/Chargers (4:05 ET): So let’s try this one again. I had the Under in the Chargers game last week. Unfortunately, they had a punt blocked, which gave Miami an early touchdown. From there, at the end of the game, the Chargers would go on to score a “garbage time” TD (were down 15) to officially push the game Over. It was their sixth straight game to go Over the total. Five of those games have ended up being one-score losses, four of them seeing LA blow a double-digit lead. Fortunately though for this week, the Chargers get to host the winless Jets, who are easily the worst team in the league this season.

Last week marked the first time all season that the Jets didn’t lose a game. That’s because they didn’t play. Last time we saw Adam Gase’s team was two Mondays ago when they almost beat the Patriots. That 30-27 loss was their second-highest scoring game of the season. I wouldn’t go expecting a repeat of that this week. The previous four games all saw the Jets score 10 points or less. They average a league-low 13.4 PPG (nearly 6 PPG fewer than the next worst team) and also last in yards per game (266.0), 34.9 fewer than the next worst team.. They have been held to 17 points or fewer in seven of their nine games this season.

So we can count on the Jets not scoring much here. What about the Chargers? Rookie QB Justin Herbert has played better than most expected, even if the performance hasn’t translated into wins. But I expect a conservative offensive game plan this week from the all-too conservative Anthony Lynn. I think it’s fair to say last week’s game against the Dolphins probably shouldn’t have gone Over. Miami was able to get 13 points by driving a total of 30 yards and also had a 32-yard TD drive. Before the loss to New England, four straight Jets’ games had stayed Under. I just think the Chargers are due for an Under and this is the perfect opponent for it. The Under is 15-7 when LA is favored. 10* Under Jets/Chargers

8* Over Miss State/Georgia (7:30 ET): Mississippi State has gone Under in five straight, which is something we’re certainly not accustomed to seeing from a MIke Leach coached outfit. If you recall, it was a little over a month ago that I went on the record and stated the Bulldogs were an overrated side after beating LSU 44-34 in the season opener. Sure enough, they haven’t covered since (0-5 ATS) though they did snap a four-game SU losing streak by defeating Vanderbilt 24-17 two weeks ago. 

Mississippi State was supposed to play Auburn last week. But that game didn’t take place due to COVID-19, just like Georgia’s scheduled game vs. Missouri was not played. So both teams are off the unexpected bye this week. Last time we saw UGA was two weeks ago when they were ran off the field by Florida, 44-28. It was the Bulldogs’ second loss in three games and their highly touted defense gave up 41+ in both defeats. The other was against Alabama, who beat Miss State 41-0 earlier this year.

That Alabama loss was the only game where MSU faced a larger spread than this. It obviously didn’t go well and stayed Under. But the total for that game was 64. The first five MSU games all had O/U lines of 56 pts or higher. Facing the Georgia defense means this O/U line will obviously be lower, but the ‘Dawgs can potentially send this one Over almost by themselves -- no matter who starts at QB. The underdog will score enough to ensure this is a comfortable Over. Remember they put up over 600 yards on LSU! 8* Over Miss State/Georgia