8* Under Va Tech/Pitt (4:00 ET): Pittsburgh is a team we haven’t heard much from lately. That’s because they’ve played just one game in the last three weeks. It was a win, 41-17 over Florida State, which snapped a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak. A streak that did continue w/ that blowout win over the Seminoles was the Panthers going Over the total, now at five straight. This week they are up against a Va Tech team that’s no stranger to high-scoring games this season. But I think the number is too high. 

There was some concern over whether or not this game would even be played due to COVID-19. Then came a Pennsylvania state edict that seemed like it would require all players to wear masks during the game. That was later clarified (on Friday) and no longer will face coverings be required. What we hope is required is some defense. That shouldn’t be a problem w/ Pitt, whose defense leads the country with 38 sacks this season. The Panthers allow less than 300 total YPG and only 79 YPG on the ground (just 2.2 YPC!).

That stout run defense will come in handy against Va Tech RB Khalil Herbert, who has been banged up recently. The Hokies are coming off B2B close losses to Miami and Liberty, two home games that they probably should have won. On the bright side, they did just hold a very potent Miami offense to 25 points. The Hurricanes had only 13 on the board late in the 3Q. Pitt’s offense, even w/ QB Pickett back, is nowhere near as good as Miami’s. Interestingly enough, Va Tech’s defense is #2 in the country (behind Pitt) in sacks. I think that the respective defensive fronts will rule this game. 8* Under Va Tech/Pitt

8* Over Georgia St/South Alabama (3:30 ET): South Alabama has gone Under in each of its last five games, but I think a matchup against Georgia State will help buck that particular trend. While its definitely true that Georgia State struggled to move the ball in losses against two of the Sun Belt’s heavyweights, Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State, their offene has performed VERY well otherwise. Those “other” four games have seen the Panthers score at least 31 points every time out, three times scoring 49 or more.

  In fact, Georgia State started out the year by going Over in each of its first four games. I went Under when they faced Coastal Carolina and despite the Panthers giving up 51 points in that game, it was a win for me and my clients as Georgia State “forgot to score” (got shutout). That loss isn’t really indicative of where the Panthers “are at,” although they have given up 34 or more points five times this season including 50 or more on two different occasions. You can usually count on it being a high-scoring game when Georgia State is involved.

South Alabama’s season began with a very rare road win over Southern Miss (32-21). Since then they are just 2-5 with the two wins coming against La Monroe and Texas State, both of whom are awful. In four of their five losses, the Jaguars have been held to 17 points or less. But that shouldn’t be the case here facing the suspect Georgia State defense. They are due for an Over and it should come here against a team that has twice gone Over a total of 70.0 this season!  8* Over Georgia State/South Alabama

10* Under Buffalo/Bowling Green (7:00 ET): Bowling Green is looking like it might be the worst team in the country this season. If not them, it’s Akron (another team from the MAC), who has lost 19 in a row. Last week saw the Falcons get drubbed 62-24 by Kent State. They are now 0-2 SU/ATS as they lost their season opener 38-3 to Toledo. This matchup with 2-0 Buffalo, perhaps the MAC’s best team, is less than ideal. The Bulls have covered 9 of their last 10 games overall (beat Miami 42-10 last week) and have covered six straight seasons against Bowling Green. Despite the huge spread here, I almost laid the points. But that doesn’t seem prudent. Instead it’s a play on the total that needs to be made.

Bowling Green has given up 100 points in two games. But as bad as the defense has been, the offense might be worse. They ranked 128th in scoring last season (16.0 PPG) as well as 124th in yards per play and 120th in yards per game. There was some hope w/ Boston College transfer Matt MacDonald coming in to play QB, but he’s been HORRIBLE, completing only 14 of his 50 pass attempts (not a misprint!). The Falcons just aren’t going to score many points Tuesday against a decent Buffalo defense.

That brings us to the Buffalo offense. As mentioned above, it was a very impressive 42-10 win over Miami last week. That followed a 49-point effort in the opener at Northern Illinois, but they had a lot of short TD drives in that game because of five NIU turnovers. Even if Buffalo puts up 40 again this week (very possible), I still see this game going Under. The last two years have seen Buffalo beat BG by scores of 49-7 and 44-14. It’s probably going to be a similar score tonight, which would work just fine. Bowling Green is 14-5 Under L19 games. 10* Under Buffalo/Bowling Green

9* Over Seahawks/Rams (4:25 ET): I have been skeptical of the Seahawks all season, mainly because their woeful pass defense remains a huge liability. It cost them last week as they gave up 44 points and 415 yards passing to Josh Allen and the Bills. While that was only their second loss of the season, Seattle is getting outgained on the year (despite Russell Wilson) and has now given up more passing yardage in eight games than the famed “Legion of Boom” defense did the entire 2013 season! The Over is 6-2 in Seahawks games this season with the fewest total number of points scored being 53. 

The Rams, who are off their bye, are not the opponent Seattle wants to see right now. Since Sean McVay took over, Los Angeles has averaged more than 30 PPG against this Seahawks’ defense, which has never been worse than it is right now. Keep in mind that Jamal Adams returned last week and Seattle still got torched. LA lost two weeks ago to Miami 28-17 (which was my 10* NFL Game of the Year -- on Miami!), but actually outgained the Dolphins more than 3:1 in the game (471-145). I fully expect that with an extra week of preparation the Rams offense is going to put up a big number here against a defense that is last in yards allowed and 30th in scoring.

The Seahawks’ defense is currently on pace to allow the most passing yards EVER in a NFL season. The Rams’ Jared Goff has thrown for at least 290 yards in the last four meetings. Adams might be back, but he was terrible last week, and both Seattle corners are now banged up. But Seattle still has a chance here because of Russell Wilson, who leads an offense that is averaging 34.3 PPG. The Rams have gone Under in five straight, but those games were against the Giants, Washington, San Francisco, Chicago and Miami. The Seahawks are a much different opponent with Wilson having seven touchdown passes of 20+ yards this season. 9* Over Seahawks/Rams

9* Under Chargers/Dolphins (4:05 ET): Miami has turned into a real success story as they’ve gotten to 5-3 SU by winning four straight games. They’re 4-0 ATS as well during the win streak. But as much as I want to pull for them, they have been outgained by 456 yards since Tua Tagovailoa became the starting QB. They’ll have a special place in my heart due to being my 10* NFL Game of the Year two weeks ago and they beat the Rams 28-17. But the truth is that was one of the most misleading final scores of the year. The Dolphins were actually outgained by more than a 3:1 margin (471-145) in that contest!

Tua looked a lot better last week in leading a 34-31 upset over Arizona (on the road). But the ‘Fins were still outgained in that game by over 100 yards. The big story for Miami these last two weeks has been non-offensive touchdowns as they have THREE of them, two on defense and one punt return. Against the Rams, they also started a drive inside the five-yard line. So Tua really hasn’t moved the ball as well as you might think and the fact the team is averaging 31 PPG w/ him as the starter is a total mirage. On the flip side, I really like the Dolphins defense, which is allowing just 20.1 PPG this season, 4th fewest in the league. 

While Miami is on the rise, the Chargers can’t seem to get out of their own way. Last week was another close loss as all six defeats this year have been by seven points or less. That’s the most one-score losses in the first eight games of a season - ever! I’d love to say this is where they turn things around, but my power rankings actually say the value is on Miami here. But with the Dolphins’ recent scoring being a bit of a mirage and LA being 5-0 Over its L5 games, my call is that this ends up being a surprisingly low-scoring affair. 11 of the last 12 meetings between these teams have gone Under! 9* Under Chargers/Dolphins

9* Over Northwestern/Purdue (7:30 ET): I’m still very unhappy how last week’s Nebraska-Northwestern game turned out. I had Nebraska plus the points and judging by the fact they outgained N’western 442-317, you would have thought they’d at least covered. Incredibly, the Cornhuskers were in the red zone SEVEN times and came away with just 13 points. They missed a field goal and had two costly interceptions before turning it over on downs (inside the 15) on the drive that decided the game. Nine times in the game Nebraska crossed midfield. So let’s be careful before anointing Northwestern’s defense as anything special, okay? 

Unlike Nebraska, Purdue should be able to cash in its scoring chances as it hosts the Wildcats this week. The Boilermakers have scored 24 and 31 points in their two games thus far, both of them wins. Last week they were set to face Wisconsin, but COVID 19 cancelled that matchup. So with an extra week to prepare for the Northwestern defense, I think Purdue’s offense will do well Saturday night. I’d like the chances even more if WR Rondale Moore and RB King Doerue (both gametime decisions) suited up for the 1st time this season. But consider that a luxury if one or both do. Over is the play here regardless. 

In Moore’s absence, David Bell has put up big numbers with 22 catches for 234 yards. (Remember, that’s just two games). These teams have combined to go 5-0 Under this season, but that trend is about to end. Northwestern could get its starting RB (Isaiah Bowser) back from an injury, again something that should be considered a luxury if he does suit up. The Wildcats did put up 43 points in the season opener (vs. Maryland) so they are more than capable of a big offensive game themselves. Over is 7-3-1 in N’western’s L11 games as a road favorite while it’s also 15-5 in Purdue’s L20 as a home dog. 9* Over Northwestern/Purdue

8* Over UTEP/UTSA (3:00 ET): The big surprise is that both of these teams come into Saturday sporting .500 records. That may not sound like much, but UTEP and UTSA aren’t exactly what you’d consider traditional powerhouses. In the three seasons before this one, UTEP went 2-34 straight up! They’ve already exceeded that three-year win total with a 3-3 SU start to 2020. UTSA hadn’t been nearly as bad as UTEP, but has already matched LY’s win total by going 4-4 SU. They are the favorites here and likely to win. 

Some context should probably be provided with UTEP’s 3-3 SU start. The Miners have beaten two FCS programs (Stephen F Austin, Abilene Christian) and a LA Monroe team I consider to be among the bottom five in the FBS. On a more positive front, the offense has averaged 25.3 points and 384 yards the L3 games (all vs. FBS foes). Their two highest scoring games of the season (31 vs. LA Monroe and 28 vs. Charlotte) have come during that stretch. Hopefully, the fact they haven’t played in three weeks (COVID-19) doesn’t slow them down. This will also be the Miners’ 4th consecutive road game. 

What initially caught my eye here is the fact UTSA has gone Under in five straight games. They last played two weeks ago and lost 24-3 to Florida Atlantic. But the Roadrunners also gave BYU their toughest game (27-20) and have been involved in three other games where at least 53 total points were scored. That’s why I think this number is too low. UTSA games are averaging 51.3 PPG this season (51-48 win over Texas State helps) while UTEP games average 45.2. This is the lowest O/U line for either team this season. The Over is 13-3 in UTEP’s last 16 November games. 8* Over UTEP/UTSA

10* Over Florida Atlantic/Florida International (7:00 ET): This total opened low and it’s dropped even lower. I now think it’s low enough that an Over play is definitely warranted. Over the course of any football game, there are so many “random” things that can take place, such as a “big play” or a turnover. For a game to stay Under a total this low, all of that would have to be avoided. I’m willing to bet that we get some of that randomness here. Getting two College Football teams to score 20 points in 2020 doesn’t seem like a big ask. Even if both don’t here, one will score enough to get the game Over. 

I am obviously well aware of the fact that every FAU game has stayed Under so far. Through four games, the Owls are averaging just 16.0 PPG while allowing only 11.5 PPG. They are off a 10-6 win over Western Kentucky last week, a game in which I took the points (w/ WKU) and won. No team in the country has seen a lower total PPG scoring average this season than the Owls. But 27.5 PPG is simply too low of a number to sustain. Here they are facing a FIU defense that’s giving up 28.7 PPG. Throw in the fact that the Panthers scored a combined 62 points their first games and this should easily produce FAU’s highest scoring game to date.

FIU hasn’t played in three weeks. Last time we saw them, the Panthers suffered an embarrassing 19-10 defeat at the hands of FCS Jacksonville State. But with all the extra time to prepare for FAU, my view is that FIU’s offense is going to have a bounce back game. Same for FAU, who was tied 0-0 w/ WKU last week. A change at QB was made last week for the Owls and Javion Posey led the game-winning drive. FIU’s defense is giving up 460 YPG. The Over has cashed the L4 times these “Shula Bowl” rivals have met in Miami. Consider that the closing O/U lines for these teams in Week 1 were 63.0 and 61.0.  This number is just too low not to try w/ the Over. 10* Over Florida Atlantic/Florida Intl

10* Under Colorado State/Boise State (8:00 ET): Boise State was severely humbled last week, here on the blue turf no less, losing 51-17 to BYU. Quite frankly, it could have been a whole lot worse. I was actually debating playing the Broncos last Friday, but in retrospect am obviously very glad to have passed. I think it’s going to be a pretty difficult loss for them to shake as this week they host Mountain West rival Colorado State. All three Boise State games thus far have gone Over the total. Not this one though. 

Colorado State probably “deserves” to be 1-1 thus far, though I think each score was somewhat misleading. In a season-opening 38-17 loss at Fresno State, they didn’t play nearly as poorly as one would expect judging from that final score. Conversely, they were actually outgained 465-342 in a 34-24 win over Wyoming last weekend. That game saw the Rams obviously benefit from a +3 turnover margin as they opened the scoring with a “pick-six.” The CSU offense isn’t running the ball all that effectively thus far (3.2 YPC) and is averaging just 22 PPG when you take away that defensive score. 

On the positive side, Colorado State’s defense is allowing just 2.5 yards per carry. They may also be in luck in that Boise State could be down to its third string QB. Starter Hank Bachmeier is dealing with an undisclosed injury and has missed the L2 games. His backup, Jack Sears, was knocked out of the BYU game with a concussion. Whether or not either can make it back on the field for Thursday, this is an easy call on the Under, which is 25-11 in Boise’s last 36 home games. 10* Under Colorado State/Boise State

10* Over Patriots/Jets (8:15 ET): Despite an unheard of four-game losing streak in Foxboro, I don’t think the Patriots should be written off just yet. They easily could have beaten Buffalo on the road last week. While certainly not up to the caliber of past Bill Belichick teams, this one is closer to average than the 2-5 record suggests. Facing the winless Jets Monday night, I think the offense gets back on track and starts to resemble what we saw earlier in the year in games against Seattle and Las Vegas. The pointspread is too high, so Over is the call Monday night. 

Statistically speaking, the Jets have one of the worst defenses in the league. They are in the bottom 7 in both yards and points allowed. Last week’s 35-9 loss to the Chiefs saw KC elect not to run the ball very much. The previous seven weeks the Jets allowed 110+ rushing yards. Expect them to get a healthy dose of Cam Newton tonight. The Pats gained 188 yds rushing LW vs. Buffalo, the 4th time this season they’ve gained 185 or more. This should be a “get right” game for the New England offense.

The Jets offense seems destined to have to start Joe Flacco at QB (Sam Darnold has a shoulder injury) and while that may not sound awesome, it’s not like Darnold had been playing all that well. No matter who the Jets’ starting QB is, improvement on third down has to be something we see. The team is last in the league, converting just 28.3% of 3D opportunities including 16.2% of its L37. That’s unsustainable and by the simple “law of averages” HAS to get better. While not the lowest O/U line for either team, it’s pretty close this week. The Over is 3-0 this season in Jets’ games where the total is below 42. All but two of their games have seen more points scored than this total. 10* Over Patriots/Jets

8* Under Saints/Buccaneers (8:20 ET): While so much focus will be paid attention to all the talent returning at receiver in this game, these are two of the top three run defenses in the league. Tampa Bay is 1st, giving up only 70.4 YPG on the ground while New Orleans isn’t too far behind (allows 90.6 YPG). So neither offense is going to run the ball all that effectively. Yes, I know every Saints game this season has gone Over the total. But there have been only EIGHT times in NFL history where a team has opened a season with eight consecutive Overs. Take the Under here. 

So Michael Thomas should be back for the Saints. Tampa Bay “expects” Chris Godwin back while the “controversial” Antonio Brown will make his debut here as well. That’s obviously a lot of talent at receiver, but I don’t expect any of those players to have big games Sunday night. Furthermore, the Bucs other standout WR (Mike Evans) has just five catches in his past three matchups with New Orleans. Saints RB Alvin Kamara has been hobbled by a foot injury this week. If you’re a fantasy owner, expect some of these star skill position players to have down weeks! 

While the Week 1 meeting between these teams saw 57 total points scored and (obviously) went Over, be aware that included a “pick six” from Tom Brady. Also, the Saints offense (w/ Thomas) gained just 271 total yards, a season-low. Tampa Bay had just 310 total yards, which was also their season-low. Both offenses are obviously now much more “in sync,” but I look for the defenses to steal the spotlight away from the much more heralded offenses in this one. I just can’t see another NO game going Over. 8* Under Saints/Buccaneers

10* Under Kansas/Oklahoma (3:30 ET): During this perfect 11-0 NCAAF totals run that I am on, it’s been pretty surprising just how many Unders have been cashed. What I’ve been doing is simply going Under in games where one or both teams have been on long Over streaks. We’ve got one here in Kansas, who has seen all of its games - but one - go Over this season. That one exception, a 47-14 loss to Baylor, was a push. This matchup with Oklahoma completely fits the bill of what I’ve been doing during the streak. I’m taking the Under. 

Now I realize there is concern that Oklahoma has the capability to send this one Over themselves. Last week, the Sooners hung 62 on Texas Tech. But their previous high (in regulation) for a game was 48 against a FCS school, Missouri State, and that was also a shutout. If OU is up as big as expected here (they are a 38-pt favorite!), then it’s highly likely they take their “foot off the gas” in the second half. Last week they scored 48 in the first half and then only 14 in the second. It’s unlikely they are going to score 48 in a half two weeks in a row. 

Kansas won’t score much at all here. The 22 points they put up last week was a season-high in Big 12 play. The previous four games were all 17 pts or less and twice they failed to reach 200 total yards. It should be noted that four of their six games have finished with 61 total points or less. Last week was right at 60 before Iowa State curiously scored two late TDs.  This is the highest O/U line of the year for any Kansas game. It will stay Under the number. 10* Under Kansas/Oklahoma

10* Under Bucs/Giants (8:15 ET): The point spread for this game has been bet up considerably. While it’s hard to fathom Tampa Bay losing outright, laying double digits (especially on the road) is something I would almost never do in this league. So we turn to the total. The Buccaneers shouldn’t have much trouble containing the Giants’ meager offense Monday night. This Bucs’ defense is allowing just 20.3 PPG and is one of only three defenses in the league (Colts, Steelers) to be allowing LESS than 300 total yards per game. They are #1 against the run.

Heading into Sunday, Tampa Bay had the best point differential in the sport. They’ve outscored their opponents by 80 points. The defense has allowed more than 20 points in just two games this season. They allowed 34 in a Week 1 loss to the Saints and then 31 in a Week 4 win over the Chargers. In both games, QB Tom Brady was guilty of throwing a “pick six,” so the defensive numbers (in terms of points allowed) are even better than they already look. The Giants offense, in case you didn’t know, is one of the very worst in the league. They are averaging just 17.4 PPG and the only time they’ve topped 21 was against the Cowboys, who have arguably the worst defense in the league. 

So I’m pretty confident that the Giants are not scoring many points here. Not only have they scored 21 pts or less in six of seven games, they’ve been held under 17 four times. Those four times were against the best four defenses they’ve faced and a case could be made that TB is the BEST defense they will face all season! So it all comes down to the Giants defense hopefully containing Brady and company. The Bucs’ offense will be without Chris Godwin (one of their starting receivers) so that’s a plus on that front. They did put up 45 themselves last week, but that was on the heels of two games where they averaged a modest 330 YPG. Only one Giants game all season has seen more than 45 total pts scored. 10* Under Bucs/Giants

8* Under Notre Dame/Georgia Tech (3:30 ET): Georgia Tech is two weeks removed from a 73-7 beatdown at the hands of Clemson. I played against them last week, thinking +3.5 was WAY too short of a number on the road vs. Boston College. I couldn’t have been more right. The Yellow Jackets lost 48-27 in Chestnut Hill in what was my top ACC play for October. However, be advised that the number of points GT allowed was a bit misleading. BC had a defensive TD + three scoring drives of less than 40 yards (all TDs). 

Notre Dame is playing in the ACC this year and off to a 5-0 start (four wins in conference play). They completely crushed Pitt last week with the offense putting up 45 points. But let’s not dismiss what the defense did, holding the Panthers to just three points and 44 yards rushing. The Fighting Irish lead the ACC in both scoring and total defense and are top 10 nationally in both categories. They’ve allowed only one opponent (Florida State) to score more than 13 points this year.

Maybe Notre Dame can ask Georgia Tech for some “tips” about facing Clemson because that’s who the Irish will face NEXT week. With such a huge game on deck (two Top 5 teams!), I seriously doubt Brian Kelly will want to show much offensively in a game his team should win easily. Remember it was only two weeks ago that the Irish scored only 12 points in a win over Louisville. So it’s not as if they’re immune to an “off day.” Georgia Tech’s defense has been pretty bad, leading to five straight Overs, but remember the theme of this 3-pack. They’ll benefit from ND being a little disinterested in this one. 8* Under Notre Dame/Ga Tech

8* Under Coastal Carolina/Georgia State (12:00 ET): The theme of this 3-pack of totals will be readily apparent to those who have followed recent/season results. Bottom line is I’m looking to buck the Over trends from certain teams. One such example is Georgia State, who has gone Over in all four games this season. The last time I checked in with this team was two weeks ago and they gave up 59 points in a loss to Arkansas State (They scored 52 in that game). Crazy as it may sound, the Panthers’ defense isn’t as bad as that performance (or some other numbers suggest).

Georgia State is actually quite good at stopping the run. They are allowing just 97.0 YPG on the ground and 3.15 yards per carry, both of which are Sun Belt bests. This is particularly handy against a Coastal Carolina offense whose strength is an ability to run and will likely be starting a backup QB for the second straight week. In last week’s 36-34 win over Troy, Georgia State gave up two defensive touchdowns, skewing the scoreboard. Besides the wild Arkansas State game, the Panthers’ defense has not surrendered more than 30 points in regulation all season.

Coastal Carolina’s defense was outstanding last week as it held Georgia Southern to 14 points (none in the 2H) and only 218 total yards in a season-best effort. The Chanticleers have held every opponent to 27 points or less and are now 5-0 SU, earning themselves a Top 20 ranking for the 1st time. The defense is #26 in the country in yards allowed per game. With Fred Payton likely to start in place of the injured Grayson McCall for a second straight game, the offense isn’t as dynamic as it was at the start of the season. Even w/ the number coming down, this is still likely to close as the 2nd highest CC O/U line to date. 8* Under Coastal Carolina/Georgia State

8* Under Temple/Tulane (12:00 ET): These teams are a combined 7-1-1 Over, but remember the theme of the 3-pack. Temple has played only three times and every game has been pretty wild w/ a 39-37 come from behind win over USF sandwiched in between losses to Navy (31-29) and Memphis (41-29). Tulane is just 2-4 w/ the L5 games all going Over the total. The fewest number of total points scored in a Green Wave game the L4 weeks has been 71! But they’ve been up against some pretty great offenses and that’s not really the case here.

The last three games have seen Tulane face Houston, SMU and Central Florida, three of the top offenses in the American. The Green Wave certainly didn’t get a ton of stops in those games, but the defense has been very good at generating a pass rush (2+ sacks in every game besides Navy, who really doesn’t throw) and Temple really struggled in pass protection LW vs. Memphis. The Green Wave were just blitzed in the 2nd quarter by UCF last week (gave up 27 points) but really weren’t that bad otherwise (crazy as that may sound). They also shut out Navy for a half earlier in the season.

The strength of the Tulane offense is running the football, but note Temple is allowing just 3.9 yards per carry. Tulane has scored a total of THREE defensive touchdowns the L3 games, so the offense isn’t as productive as those final scores might lead you to believe. The SMU game went to overtime and the game vs. Houston featured THREE non-offensive touchdowns. Take that “randomness” out of the equation, all of a sudden the games aren’t as high-scoring. Last year’s game was 29-21 (in favor of Temple) despite Tulane running for 200 yards. I expect both defenses to step up here. 8* Under Temple/Tulane

9* Under Bucs/Raiders (4:05 ET): This was originally supposed to be the Sunday Night game, but had to be moved due to COVID-19 concerns with the Raiders. In a terrible turn of events, Las Vegas may be without its ENTIRE starting offensive line this week! That’s a horrible situation no matter the opponent, but this week the Silver and Black happen to be facing a defense that is giving up a league-low 282 YPG and is second in sacks with 22. Do not expect the Raiders to do much scoring in this one. Take the Under.

Every Raiders’ game this season has gone Over this season (your result vs. Buffalo could vary) and the Over is 7-0-1 the L8 meetings w/ the Bucs, including that Super Bowl debacle when Jon Gruden was coaching AGAINST them. But given the situation that Las Vegas is in here, you certainly expect those trends to be bucked this week. The Raiders like to run the ball, but behind a makeshift O-line that’s going against the top run defense in the league, they aren’t about to have much success doing so. 

Tampa Bay was a HUGE winner for us last Sunday (Game of the Month) as they crushed the Packers 38-10. It was the fourth time in the last five games they held the opponent to 20 points or less. If they can keep Aaron Rodgers to just 107 yards passing, imagine the nightmare Derek Carr is in for as he tries to throw the ball behind a bunch of backups. The Bucs won’t score that many points this week, simply because they won’t have to. Last week, they had a pick-six and a one-play TD drive after another INT, so 38 pts was misleading. In terms of pace of play, these are two of the slowest teams in the league. 9* Under Bucs/Raiders

9* Under Panthers/Saints (1:00 ET): Coming out of a bye is usually considered a luxury, but not if you’re NOT healthy. New Orleans will be without both their starting WRs this week as Michael Thomas is still injured and Emmanuel Sanders tested positive for COVID. This is a Saints team that’s trailed by double digits each of its last two games, both of which were against losing teams (Detroit, Chargers). Whether the injuries cost them a win this week remains up for debate, but I do think that for the 1st time this season we’re about to see a Saints’ game stay Under the total.

Carolina comes in at 3-3, which is better than most would have expected. They were favorites for the first time last week, but lost 23-16 to Chicago and really it wasn’t that close as they got their only TD in the 4th quarter. They were held to a season-low 303 total yards and for the 4th time this season were held to 23 points or fewer. On the bright side, the Panthers’ defense has been steadily improving, holding the L4 opponents to an average of just 19 PPG. They gave up only 261 total yards to the Bears last week, which was the second time in three weeks they allowed less than 300.

I don’t think the Panthers are going to move the ball on the ground very effectively in this game as the Saints defense remains very stout against the run, giving up just 3.6 yards per carry. Remember Carolina lost RB Christian McCaffrey for the season, which is a very big deal! New Orleans knows Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater well (he played for them LY) and hopefully Bridgewater can provide insight to his own defense on how to stop Drew Brees & the NO offense. These NFC South rivals do have a history of going Over against one another, but this could close as the highest O/U line for one of their games since 2016. The only other time since then we’ve seen a total of 50+, it ended up being a 12-9 final. 9* Under Panthers/Saints

10* Under Alabama/Tennessee (3:30 ET): Alabama is one of only two teams in the country that’s played at least four games and has yet to see an Under. While an offense averaging 48.5 PPG (#2 in the country behind Texas, who is the other 4-0 Over team) has been a driving force, the Crimson Tide’s defense has surprisingly given up an average of 28.8 PPG, which is very high for a Nick Saban outfit. Of course, that number of PPG allowed is still heavily inflated by the Ole Miss game (where the Tide allowed 48 pts). The other three games have seen them allow no more than 24 and I think we’re in store for an Under this week.

This rivalry, played annually on the third Saturday of October, has not gone well for Tennessee in recent years. Their last win came back in 2006 (here in Knoxville), which was the year before Saban took over Bama. The Tide have been ranked in the top 8 for each of the last 12 meetings and incredibly this will be the 10th time under Saban they’ve been ranked #1 or #2 when facing Tennessee (were #1 each of the last four years). The Vols have had all sorts of trouble scoring on Saban’s defense, never scoring more than 21 and getting held to an average of just 12.3 PPG! 

Tennessee comes into this year’s matchup averaging just 23.5 PPG after it was held to only 7 points by Kentucky last week. It was the second week in a row they lost and were held below 300 total yards. They turned it over seven times during that stretch. Bama’s defense is going to get better on third down, it could rain Saturday afternoon in Knoxville and this is the highest total (by a lot) for any Tennessee game this season. For Alabama, only the Ole Miss game had a higher O/U line. While Bama can definitely score, if they are up big in the 2H, they’ll take their “foot off the gas” as per usual.  10* Under Alabama/Tennessee

10* Under Arkansas State/Appalachian State (7:30 ET): Arkansas State comes into this weeknight Sun Belt showdown at 3-2 SU overall on the season. They are off their 1st conference win, a wild 59-52 shootout against Georgia State, which took place last Thursday. That was a real back & forth game where neither team led by more than 7 points. It was not just the second straight game that Ark State scored 50+, it marked the second time in three games that they gave up 50+! The Over is 4-0 their L4 games. 

Appalachian State hasn’t played in almost a month due to COVID-19 cancellations. Their last game, which took place on Sept 26, also saw them hang 50+ points. But it was against a FCS opponent (Campbell). The last time App State faced an FBS opponent, which was Marshall, they lost 17-7. Their only other game was a 35-20 win over Charlotte in the season opener. The Mountaineers haven’t covered one game all year (0-3 ATS) as they head into their conference opener Thursday night. This is the highest O/U line for any of their games thus far. 

Most are going to expect a high-scoring affair here. But these teams’ offensive numbers are both somewhat inflated due to facing a FCS opponent. Expect there to be a bit of a “fire” lit under the Arkansas State defense as the coordinator was fired shortly after the Georgia State game. Appalachian State very well could be rusty on offense after such an unusually long layoff. In three road games, Arkansas State hasn’t scored more than 35 points and twice they were held below 25. They are 12-5 L17 Under as an underdog. App State is allowing only 19.3 PPG. 10* Under Arkansas State/Appalachian State

9* Under Ole Miss/Arkansas (3:30 ET): When Lane Kiffin was hired to be the head coach of Ole Miss, you had to figure there wouldn’t be many dull Saturdays in Oxford. But even by Kiffin standards, these first three games have been pretty insane (especially last week’s). There have been 86, 83 and 111 pts scored. However, some context should be provided as they’ve faced two top five teams (Florida & Alabama) plus the one win (over Kentucky) went to OT. Still, that’s a lot of scoring. The Over is obviously 3-0 in Ole Miss games. 

It was thought that by playing an all-SEC schedule this year, Arkansas would be having many LONG Saturdays. However, the Razorbacks seem to be vastly improved as they’ve won at Miss State and should have won at Auburn last week. Being 3-0 ATS (also covered vs. Georgia) is a nice way for HC Sam Pittman’s own SEC tenure to begin as they hadn’t seen many league wins in Fayetteville in recent years. Prior to Pittman taking over, the Hogs had lost 19 in a row in conference play.

This is the highest total on the board this week in College Football, which I can’t say surprises me. But the Ole Miss’ offense can’t possibly keep putting points on the board like it has and this is an obvious flat spot after the Alabama loss. The defense can only improve and facing one of the weaker SEC offenses is the perfect prescription. Arkansas is only averaging 19.7 PPG through three games. For a game to go Over this number, Ole Miss needs a suitable “dance partner” and the Razorbacks are simply NOT that team. 9* Under Ole Miss/Arkansas

8* Under Navy/East Carolina (12:00 ET): Last week marked the first time Navy played a “good” full 60 minutes of football. Their first win, 27-24 over Tulane, saw them have to battle back from a 24-0 halftime deficit. So it had to feel good to lead the whole way against Temple, even if the Midshipmen needed to stop a late 2 pt conversion for the win. Still, let’s not pretend “all is well” in Annapolis. The Middies were still outgained LW (407-299) and their two losses this year have come by a total of 85 points. 

East Carolina had its own problems the first two games (gave up 100 points!) but finally got into the win column LW with a 44-24 win over USF, who looks to be as bad as any team in the American Conference this season. Last week marked the first game this year that the Pirates didn’t turn the ball over (had 7 TO’s first two weeks). Like Navy, I don’t expect things to go as well offensively here as they did a week ago. ECU cannot again expect to the beneficiary of four scoring drives that start in opposing territory, which is what happened against USF. 

With these teams having combined to go 7-0 Over, it’s a little surprising that the total has come down. But this is a high O/U line for Navy. The previous high was last week (51.0) and none of their games have seen more than 60 pts scored. All of East Carolina’s games have been high-scoring, but like Navy, they look to control the clock. The Pirates actually lead the American in time of possession. Navy’s run game is not as effective as it’s been in years past (3.5 YPC) and they are averaging less than 260 total YPG. This will be a surprisingly low-scoring affair. 8* Under Navy/East Carolina

10* Under Coastal Carolina/Louisiana (7:30 ET): Coastal Carolina is much improved this season as they have averaged a Sun Belt best 44.3 PPG during a 3-0 start. QB Grayson McCall, who has completed 67% of his pass attempts thus far while averaging a stunning 17.3 yds per completion, has added a passing dimension that the offense clearly lacked last season. But if it feels like the Chanticleers’ offense has overachieved thus far, that’s because it has. Now it’s set to face the Sun Belt’s best defensive and overall team, Louisiana. Look for CC’s offense to be slowed down in this one. 

The key for Coastal Carolina’s offense so far has been leading the country in time of possession (they play at a very slow tempo) and converting at what is an unsustainable rate on third down (6th in the country). Enter the Louisiana defense which was tops in the SBC a year ago and returned eight starters. So far the Ragin Cajuns are giving up less than 21 PPG in regulation and they are very good on third down. Coastal Carolina’s offense lacks explosiveness and hasn’t faced a defense this good all season, so yes, their numbers are set to come down pretty dramatically. 

Both teams are going to look to run the ball Wednesday night, so look for that clock to always be moving. Louisiana’s offense has been disappointing so far as it has averaged just 26.3 PPG in regulation. Since upsetting Iowa State in the opener, the Cajuns were very nearly upset themselves each of the L2 games. Coastal Carolina is also improved on the defensive side of the ball as they have 26 TFL and a Sun Bet-leading 13 sacks. Look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Coastal Carolina/Louisiana

10* Under Chargers/Saints (8:15 ET): The Under has not been a popular bet either of the L2 weeks on MNF. You had the Chiefs taking on the Ravens and the Falcons facing the Packers. In the case of the latter, it was the league’s worst defense facing the top offense. Yet both times the Under hit and I’m proud to report I was on it both times. With the record amount of scoring we’re seeing across the league, more opportunities to take the Under are going to open up and for the 3rd week in a row on MNF, this is one of them. 

New Orleans is 4-0 Over this season. Entering Week 5, the Texans were the only other team that could claim a perfect Over mark this season and their game (vs. Jacksonville) stayed Under yday. Now that game has no real bearing on this one, obviously. However, it did illustrate that a team isn’t going to go Over (or Under) every game and sometimes all it takes is the “right” opponent. The Chargers were 3-0 Under through three weeks before last week’s wild 38-31 loss to Tampa Bay.

The Chargers, who are starting a rookie QB (Justin Herbert), still only average 20.8 PPG. They actually gained just 324 yards last week, but had a defensive score + two long Herbert TD passes. Not a lot of sustained drives from them. They have injuries in the backfield (at RB). The Saints’ defense has held all four opponents under 400 yards and the Lions gained just 281 on them last week. The Saints’ offense, which will again be w/o WR Michael Thomas, hasn’t looked as good as you might think despite scoring 30+ pts in 3 of 4 games. 10* Under Chargers/Saints

9* Under NC State/Virginia (12:00 ET): These two ACC rivals have combined to play five games so far and all five have gone Over the total. Dating back to last season, each team is on an impressive run of Overs. The Over is 6-1 in NC State’s L7 games (3-0 this season) and it is 8-0 in Virginia’s L8 games (2-0 this season). But UVA’s point totals from the first two games are a little misleading as there has been a lot of “garbage time” scoring for a variety of reasons. I think this game bucks the trend. Take the Under. 

Virginia has scored just 17 points in the first three quarters of both games so far. Against Duke, they were the beneficiaries of SEVEN turnovers. Two of those seven came late in the game and were converted into touchdowns after excellent starting field position (one drive was just 10 yards). Last week vs. Clemson, they got a garbage time TD w/ 1:11 remaining, when trailing 41-17. They also scored right before the end of the first half. Not that I’m complaining mind you, as I had the Hoos +28 (in what was a wire to wire cover).

UVA QB Brennan Armstrong has done much better than I had expected in “replacing” do-everything Bryce Perkins. But I still think the Cavaliers’ scoring output is misleading. While the Hoos have won nine in a row in Charlottesville, I don’t necessarily expect them to roll here. If they do, it may be because of the defense. They’re allowing just 2.8 YPC so far and last week NC State could not run the ball effectively (2.1 YPC) despite upsetting Pitt on the road. This will be the highest O/U line for either team YTD and the L2 times the Under hit for the Wolfpack, the number was 58+ pts. This is the highest O/U line for Virginia in an ACC game in a LONG time. 9* Under NC State/Virginia

10* Under Falcons/Packers (8:50 ET): Given how this NFL season is going, I admit taking the Under in this particular matchup does seem risky. The two teams are a combined 6-0 Over so far and Atlanta has the worst defense in the league (most points per game allowed) while Green Bay is averaging the MOST PPG on offense. But with everyone likely to be on the Over tonight, I’m going contrarian on the total. This is the highest O/U line for any Green Bay game in the L35 years. Take the Under. 

This will also likely close as the highest O/U line for any NFL game in the L2 seasons. Green Bay has scored at least 37 points in every game so far, a remarkable yet unsustainable achievement. They are averaging 6.9 yards per play! No team in NFL history had ever opened 3-0 SU while scoring 35+ points every game and never turning the ball over. The Packers are the first. But they have trailed in all three games. Despite starting a different O-line combination in every game, Aaron Rodgers has been sacked only twice. I just can’t see this continuing.

Atlanta has gone Under in eight consecutive primetime games, so there is that. Both teams are banged up at the receiver position as Davante Adams is questionable and Alan Lazard out for Green Bay while both Falcons starting WRs (Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley) are listed as questionable. Those would be significant absences and obviously work to the favor of the Under as neither team has a lot of depth at WR. It won’t be easy, but look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Falcons/Packers

8* Over Cardinals/Panthers (1:00 ET): Through the first three weeks of the NFL season, the play on the field has largely been defined by Overs, which are 29-19 this season, tying the highest % of Overs through the first three weeks in the last 35 seasons! Furthermore, the average O/U line in the NFL this week is right around 50, which would be an all-time record. It is likely that this week will end up having the highest number of games w/ a total of 50+ in league history. This Arizona-Carolina clash is one of eight currently w/ a total of 50 points or higher. 

Despite all the Overs we’re seeing, someone forgot to “send the memo” to Arizona, who is one of only two teams in the league (Chargers are the other) not to have a single game go Over to this point. It’s not like QB Kyler Murray and company aren’t scoring. They’ve averaged 25.7 PPG and more than 400 YPG. However, turnovers really hurt them in LW’s surprise 26-23 home loss to Detroit. Two of Murray’s three INTs were in Lions territory. We know the Cardinals want to “play fast” and they shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball against the defense they face this week, provided they take care of it.

Carolina has been a bit more competitive than expected this year. They are off their first win, 21-16 over the Chargers. But don’t go confusing the Panthers’ defensive effort from last week as a “good one.” They still allowed over 400+ yards, most of it coming through the air from a QB (Justin Herbert) that was making only his 2nd pro start. The first two games saw the Panthers allow 65 total points. The Over had been 7-1 in Carolina’s L8 games, dating back to LY, prior to last week. The Over has hit the last four times these teams have played including a 38-20 Carolina win last season. Arizona WR DeAndre Hopkins is a game-time decision here, but on the flip-side their secondary is missing both starting safeties. 8* Over Cardinals/Panthers

9* Under Saints/Lions (1:00 ET): This may seem like a risky bet given it involves the Saints, who have gone Over in all three games so far. But I have a bit of a feeling that this week may turn into a “tipping point” of sorts with NFL totals as the record-setting number of Overs (now 30-19-1 through Thursday) has resulted in a record-setting average O/U line for Week 4. Half of today’s games have totals in the 50’s, including this one, which is one of the higher numbers of the week. I’m going Under on this one.

New Orleans won’t have WR Michael Thomas in the lineup Sunday and that’s key because right now the Saints are LAST in the league with only 283 yards from receivers. TE Jared Cook will also be out. The lack of a downfield passing game is a big reason why New Orleans has dropped consecutive games since 2017. Even when the Saints scored 34 points in the season-opening win over TB, that was misleading. They had a pick-six and were set up on short fields by several other Bucs’ turnovers. The Under is 9-4 the Saints’ L13 October games.

Detroit is off its first win of the year (26-23 at Arizona), but the offense has struggled to move the ball the L2 weeks, averaging just over 300 YPG. They don’t run the ball very effectively and the Saints’ defense is very good at stopping the run. Save for the 4Q vs. Chicago and the Green Bay game, the Lions defense has played pretty well this year. They have led in all three games, so I don’t see them letting this one get out of hand. I know these teams have a history of high-scoring games against one another, but this one bucks the trend. 9* Under Saints/Lions

9* Over Ga Southern/La Monroe (7:00 ET): These teams have combined to go 5-0 Under this year. Furthermore, going back to last season, both are 4-0 Under the L4 games. But this Sun Belt matchup is a bit unique this week in that it feels quite conducive to an Over. Louisiana Monroe’s defense is obviously horrible (35.3 PPG allowed), especially against the run, which is Georgia Southern’s specialty. After dealing with some serious coronavirus issues in the early going, Ga Southern is now as healthy as they’ve been. 

LA Monroe has a legit claim to being the worst team in the entire country right now. The L2 wks have seen them lose to Texas State and UTEP (both of whom are also in that “worst team discussion”) by 21 and 25 points - at home. They also have a 37-7 loss to Army, which is notable because of the similarities between the Army and Ga Southern offenses. The Warhawks are allowing 263 YPG on the ground at 5.3 yards per carry, and they’ve already allowed 11 rushing TDs. Ga Southern has 476 yds on the ground in two games and should move the ball at will tonight. 

While Ga Southern figures to do most of the “heavy lifting” scoring-wise in this contest, we’ll also need La Monroe to score a couple touchdowns as well. They’ve scored just 30 points in three games thus far, but were a stunning 0 for 11 on third down vs. UTEP last week. Fortunately for the Warhawks, the Ga Southern defense is allowing opponents to convert on 46% of third down opportunities. Also QB Colby Suits is completing two-thirds of his pass attempts so far. Look for this to be BOTH teams’ highest-scoring game to date. 9* Over Ga Southern/La Monroe

10* Under La Tech/BYU (9:00 ET): It’s only two games in, but BYU has blown past the oddsmakers’ expectations thus far. The Cougars, now ranked #22 in the country, have beaten Navy 55-3 (were -1) and Troy 48-7 (were -14.5). In two games they've exceeded the pointspread by 77 points. Since 1978, no team has exceeded the pointspread by more than 85 points in the first three games. Predictably, BYU now finds itself a big favorite for Week 3 as they welcome fellow unbeaten Louisiana Tech to Provo.

Louisiana Tech was a nice winner for us two weeks ago. In their season opener, the Bulldogs went to Hattiesburg and upset favored Southern Miss 31-30 w/ a last minute TD. It was far easier last week against FCS Houston Baptist, whom they defeated 66-38 while rolling up 542 total yards, including 182 on the ground. But it won’t be that easy to move the ball this week. BYU has allowed only 10 points this season and an average of just 165 YPG. Don’t look for the team from Ruston to top 30 points in this one.

Now La Tech slowing down this BYU offense may be more of a challenge. Brigham Young has gone over 600 yards in both games and has scored over 100 points! But that sort of production simply can’t continue. BYU had 19 days off between the Navy and Troy games, so let’s see how they perform on a short week for the 1st time. This O/U line has moved considerably and while both La Tech games so far have gone Over, the Under is 10-3 the Bulldogs L13 road games. The Under is 20-8 in BYU’s L28 Friday games. 10* Under La Tech/BYU

8* Under Chiefs/Ravens (8:20 ET): This number is predictably high as you’ve got two of the great offenses in this league. But be aware that it’s also the highest O/U line for any Ravens game in HISTORY! Neither of Baltimore’s previous two efforts would have gone Over this number. In fact, neither did Kansas City’s. While neither defense has faced an offense like the one they’ll see tonight, both did excellent jobs containing DeShaun Watson. The Ravens and Chiefs combined to allow just 18 PPG in their respective wins over the Texans this season. 

Kansas City scored just nine points in the first half last week and had only 17 before a game-tying FG as time expired in regulation. So they can be slowed down. The Chargers gave Patrick Mahomes a MUCH different look defensively than they had the previous season and I expect the Ravens to do something similar tonight. These teams have met each of the last two seasons. While Baltimore is 0-2, my guess is they’ll be better prepared for Mahomes this time around. 

The Ravens did score 33 last week, but they had a defensive touchdown. I am counting more on the defense to carry them to victory tonight. That may sound crazy with all the focus (rightly) on the QB matchup of Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson. But I think the success that the Ravens will have in this game, at least offensively, will be on the ground. That should chew up some clock. Jackson didn’t even throw for 200 yards last week! Both teams’ Overs this season were by half a point. KC is 4-0 Under its L4 road games. 8* Under Chiefs/Ravens

9* Under Packers/Saints (8:20 ET): Both the Packers and Saints are 2 for 2 on the Over, so it’s not a surprise that the total is pretty high Sunday night. However, despite averaging nearly 30 PPG thus far, not all is well in New Orleans. HC Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees were both highly critical of their respective performances in Week 1 (even though they won) and then last Monday saw them lose out in Las Vegas as they could muster only 7 points in the second half. There are now legit questions concerning Brees’ arm strength.

Green Bay has put up 43 and 42 points in wins over the Lions and Vikings thus far. Aaron Rodgers has certainly looked like his old self, however there could be an issue tonight as WR Devante Adams is questionable and labeled a “game-time decision.” Adams is one of the top wideouts in the league and while Rodgers has a 6-0 TD-INT ratio thus far, the receiving corps beyond Adams isn’t great and drops far too many passes. Also, the Saints defense that Rodgers will be facing here is far superior to that of the Lions and Vikings, two teams that are a combined 0-4 thus far and total messes.

Brees will be without his top receiver as well in Michael Thomas, who led the league in catches last season. So far, New Orleans ranks just 21st in total offense. They gained less than 300 total yards vs. Tampa Bay in the season opener, then last week were nearly held scoreless after halftime. Take away the 17 pts the Saints had off turnovers in Week 1 and they are averaging just 20.5 PPG. But I think their defense, which was one of the league’s best in 2019, will step up tonight. The Under is 5-2 in GB’s L7 as a road underdog. 9* Under Packers/Saints

10* Under Cowboys/Seahawks (4:25 ET): Everyone will be expecting fireworks in “America’s Game of the Week,” but I think Cowboys/Seahawks will find a way to stay Under the total. This is a really high number, the likes of which you rarely see, especially this early in the season. While both teams were involved in shootouts last week - and Seattle has scored 73 points in two games behind leading MVP candidate Russell Wilson - I just don’t think the number should be quite this high. Take the Under. 

Dallas pulled off an all-time comeback last week against Atlanta, rallying from 12 points back in the final eight minutes to stun the Falcons 40-39. Dak Prescott threw for 450 yards, but that was against an awful defense. It should be pointed out that the reason the Cowboys were in such a large, early hole was turnovers. Three of Atlanta’s first four scores came off turnovers and five and they had four scoring drives of 31 yds or less. All told, the Cowboys defense wasn’t bad despite giving up 39 points. They allowed only 20 in Week 1, but of course Dallas lost that game because the offense wasn’t nearly as effective against the Rams as it was vs. Atlanta. That may have something to do with the fact the Cowboys always tend to struggle offensively on the road. 

Seattle had no problems beating Atlanta in Week 1 and that was on the road whereas Dallas got the Falcons at home. But it was a close one last week for the Seahawks as they outlasted the Patriots 35-30. Wilson now has the league’s highest completion rate EVER through two weeks. But he can’t keep completing 82% of his passes and for whatever reason he tends to struggle vs. the Cowboys, averaging only 154 yards passing in five games. The Under is 29-14 in Dallas’ L43 road games including 9-3 the L12 where they were an underdog. 10* Under Cowboys/Seahawks

10* Under Miami/Louisville (7:30 ET): The season’s 1st matchup of ranked teams takes place in Louisville where the #18 ranked Cardinals host #17 ranked Miami. As was made fairly clear w/ last week’s fade on L’ville, I’m not as high on Scott Satterfield’s team as the market seems to be. But at the same time, it’s hard for me to trust Miami in this spot as they are just 3-23 SU in their L26 away games vs. ranked opponents. But what I do trust are the respective defenses and the fact this O/U line has been bet too high. Take the Under. 

Miami & Louisville combined for “only” 66 points last week. I say “only” because each was facing a C-USA defense. Miami beat a good UAB team 31-14 while Louisville won 35-21 over Western Kentucky. While Miami’s game did stay Under, L’ville’s did not. But L’ville would have stayed Under had it not been for them giving WKU the ball inside the 5-yard line to start BOTH halves. Take those “drives” away and the Louisville defense allowed just 7 points on a TD that came near the end of the game. They allowed only 248 total yards as well and had 10 tackles for loss, plus three sacks.

There have been 65+ points scored in only TWO of Miami’s last 23 games. One of them was against Louisville last year, a 52-27 whipping down in Coral Gables that isn’t about to be repeated as this one is one the road. Even though the ‘Canes’ QB situation has received a major upgrade this season, D’Eriq King threw for just 144 yds last week vs. UAB.. At the same time, Miami’s defense is a lot better than what Louisville faced last week. The Under is 6-0 the L6 times “The U” has been a road underdog. 10* Under Miami/Louisville

10* Under Bengals/Browns (8:20 ET): It shouldn’t be all that surprising that this total is low. The two teams combined for a total of 19 points in Week 1, both losing in the process. Cleveland was blown out 38-6 in Baltimore while Cincinnati lost a close one (16-13) to the Chargers. We’ve got two former #1 overall draft choices starting at QB in this Thursday night matchup, including the most recent. While that sounds exciting, I saw some things in Week 1 that lead me to believe both Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow may continue to struggle here in 2020. 

Mayfield enters his third season in Cleveland with tempered expectations. He’s already on his third different head coach and third different playcaller since coming into the league. With COVID limiting offseason interaction, my guess is that it’s going to take awhile for Mayfield and 1st year Browns HC Kevin Stefanski to get on the same page. Mayfield didn’t look good from the outset last week, throwing an interception on the very first drive and finishing with only 189 yards despite being down virtually the entire game. The Browns averaged just 4.5 yards per play against the Ravens.

Burrow only threw for 193 yards in his NFL debut and missed some throws. The Cincinnati offense averaged just 4.4 yards per play. For both Mayfield and Burrow, this second game being on a short week doesn’t help. The Under has hit in each of Cleveland’s last five Thursday night contests. The Under is also 8-2-1 in the Bengals’ last 11 road games. As far as the defenses are concerned, the Bengals only allowed 16 pts last week and the Browns weren’t as bad as you think despite giving up 38 points. Four of Baltimore’s six scoring drives started at midfield or closer. 10* Under Bengals/Browns

8* Under Bucs/Saints (4:25 ET): America’s “Game of the Week” takes place in New Orleans and it’s the 1st EVER matchup (in league history!) of two 40+ year old QB’s. It’s two of the all-time greats with Tom Brady leading the Bucs (how weird does that sound?) and Drew Brees leading the Saints. In terms of how many points are going to be scored, the expectation is for a lot, given the offensive firepower that exists in both sides. Yet, despite that overwhelming sentiment (from bettors), the O/U line has come DOWN. This is a classic fade the public situation.

It’s easy to understand why the public will love the Over in the situation. Both Tampa Bay-New Orleans meetings last season went Over, each seeing 50+ points scored. Now the Bucs add Brady to the mix. But expecting Brady to be the “Brady of old” after this unusual offseason, at least right off the bat, seems like wishful thinking. It seems like there’s a good chance Brady may be without top WR Mike Evans, which would be a huge loss for the Bucs. Bottom line: I don’t see TB moving up and down the field in this first game. 

We’ve also got two of the premier run defenses from a season ago. Tampa Bay’s defense was actually #1 in the league at stopping the run! New Orleans was #4. The Saints’ defense returns 10 of 11 starters from last year. The one new starter is Malcolm Jenkins, who makes the secondary demonstrably better. With all the focus being on Brady & Brees here, don’t be surprised if it's the respective defenses “stealing the headlines.” 8* Under Bucs/Saints

10* Under Texans/Chiefs (8:25 ET): Kansas City is off a Super Bowl winning season in which it covered its final eight games. This despite trailing by double digits in three of the four playoff games, one of which being the Super Bowl and there were less than nine minutes remaining. Perhaps the most infamous of the three playoff comebacks came in the Divisional Round against the very same Texans that the Chiefs will open the 2020 season against. In that game, KC trailed 24-0 only to score 51 of the game’s final 58 points.

Though Houston obviously did not win the Super Bowl and blew a game in which it led 24-0, they did have a large amount of good fortune go their way in 2019. They were 8-3 SU in one-score games, including 5-1 in those decided by three points or less. That’s how you go 10-6 SU despite a point differential of -7 on the year. I had this team as a lock to regress even before an offseason filled with highly questionable personnel moves by HC/GM Bill O’Brien, the most notable seeing him trade away WR DeAndre Hopkins for “peanuts on the dollar.”

You see DeShaun Watson vs. Patrick Mahomes and the automatic inclination is to expect plenty of fireworks (see last January). But this is the 1st game of the year, after a condensed and unusual training camp, and a very high total for Week 1. Houston’s offense won’t be close to as good as it was last year as they lost over 45% of their offensive touches. KC won’t be going on the same kind of ridiculous scoring stretch it did in LY’s Divisional Playoff Game. The Under is 11-4-1 the Texans’ L16 September games. 10* Under Texans/Chiefs

*10* Under SMU/Texas State (4:30 ET): When these teams met last year in Dallas, the game just snuck Over the 63-point total as SMU won 47-17 and easily covered the 17-point spread. That was the third game of the season and SMU had a HUGE edge in total yards (639-242), so it was total domination. The second half of this “home and home” series takes place in San Marcos and is SMU’s first ever visit here. While it’s likely to result in another lopsided win for the Mustangs, I feel this game could be a lot lower-scoring.

The 47-17 win by SMU last year was really emblematic of how the two teams’ respective seasons went. SMU would go on to win 10 games and make the Boca Raton Bowl (where they were thrashed 52-28 by Florida Atlantic in a de facto road game). Texas State was just 3-9 SU in 2019, their fifth consecutive season with three or fewer wins. There are some key metrics that indicate the Bobcats will be improved this year, but they’re still not a great team by any means. They averaged only 18.4 PPG last season, the fourth straight year below 20 PPG.

SMU’s points per game average jumped all the way to 41.8 in 2019. I expect that number will come down even with QB Shane Buechele returning. The top two running backs from LY both graduated. I do not see the same regression taking hold on the defensive side of the ball, however. Quietly, the Mustangs led the entire country in sacks in 2019! Obviously Texas State isn’t going to score many points here and I think SMU won’t match LY’s number (47) against the Bobcats. Take the Under. 10* Under SMU/Texas State

10* Over South Alabama/Southern Miss (9:00 ET): Perhaps the strangest College Football season EVER (at least in my lifetime) officially gets underway Thursday with the first matchup of FBS teams. Though the schools are separated by just 100 miles, this will actually be the first ever meeting between South Alabama and Southern Miss. The former wasn’t very good last year (finished 2-10 SU) nor were they very good the year before (3-9 SU) for HC Steve Campbell, who enters his third season at the helm. Southern Miss is coming off a 7-win season, which ended with a 30-13 loss to Tulane in the Armed Forces Bowl.

South Alabama’s offense was pretty pitiful for most of last season. At one point, there was a six-game stretch (all losses) where they failed to score more than 17 points. All six of those games also happened to stay Under the total. But over the final four games, something flipped as Desmond Trotter took over their starting reigns at QB. With Trotter under center, the Over was 3-1 and the Jaguars scored 27+ pts three different times. Their season even ended with a huge outright win over Arkansas State, 34-30, as 10.5-point underdogs. I expect the USA offense to “take a leap” in 2020 and it helps that Trotter will have his top two WR back. 

Southern Miss averaged 26.6 points per game a year ago, which doesn’t sound all that bad, but consider that the Golden Eagles also averaged a very healthy 6.1 yards per play. Turnovers at inopportune times as well as red zone inefficiencies definitely hurt them. Those things tend to “even out” from year to year, so I’m expecting USM’s PPG average to also go up in 2020. QB Jack Abraham led all of Conference USA w/ 15 completions of 40+ yards on his way to a near 3500 yard season last year. He’s also completed 70% of his passes in the L2 seasons. South Alabama has given up 30+ PPG both seasons under Campbell and has to replace virtually all of LY’s defensive front. 10* Over South Alabama/Southern Miss

10* Under 49ers/Chiefs (6:30 ET): Before the start of the season, San Francisco was my choice to be the most improved team in the league. Sure enough, they’ve gone from 4-12 to 15-3 SU and are in the Super Bowl for a seventh time in franchise history. The last time, under Jim Harbaugh and with Colin Kaepernick at QB, is the only one they’ve lost. That was against Baltimore, seven years ago, and they were never “in the money” as 4-point favorites (lost 34-31). While even I ended up being surprised over just how much the 49ers improved, make no mistake about it, this was the best team in the NFC all year long.

Kansas City did not finish with the best record in the AFC (Baltimore did), but here they are in their first Super Bowl in 50 years. It’s the first Super Bowl for HC Andy Reid since losing to the Patriots when he was with the Eagles. This team is probably better than any Eagles team he coached. The Chiefs are not only on an 8-game SU winning streak coming into the biggest game of the year, they have gone 8-0 ATS in those games as well. One of the biggest reasons for that is an improved defense. While we really haven’t seen that in either of the two playoff games, KC has allowed an average of just 13.7 PPG during the eight-game win streak.

Believe it or not, this is likely to close as one of the highest O/U lines for any Chiefs game this season. Early in the season, there were two games with 55-point totals. This will certainly close as the highest O/U line for any Niners game this year. SF games average 49.1 PPG. KC games average 50.0 on the dot. We know the 49ers can play defense as they rank #2 in yards allowed. Both of these defenses are top 10 in scoring. The Under is 7-2-1 in the 10 Super Bowls w/ totals of 50+ pts, including last year’s 13-3 game. Based on the two Conference Championship Games, the public will be on the Over in this game. I’ll take the Under. 10* Under 49ers/Chiefs

10* Under Packers/49ers (6:40 ET): This total is pretty close to what the combined number of points was in the regular season meeting. Of course that game, a 37-8 49ers’ win and cover as 3-pt chalk, was completely lopsided. I think Green Bay is going to be a lot more competitive this time around although I won’t deny that San Francisco remains the much better team, confirmed by the fact that they have a +186 YTD point differential while Green Bay is just +68. 

But this is a lot of points to lay to a team that has Aaron Rodgers at QB. Then again, Rodgers had one of his worst days as a pro back in Week 12 on this very field. He threw for just 104 yards and averaged 1.7 yards per attempt with no completion going longer than 15 yards. Fresh off its bye and back at full strength, the 49ers’ defense displayed similar form last week against the Vikings, holding them to just 3.3 yards per play and seven first downs total. In other words, I don’t expect the Packers to score very many points this week.

But the Green Bay defense is likely to keep them in this one. This is a team that hasn’t lost since that regular season matchup against the 49ers and during the 6-game win streak, they have yielded a total of just 94 points! Prior to last week’s 28-23 win over Seattle (I had the Over), the Packers’ previous four games had all stayed Under the total. It’s a much better defense that they are up against here and last week the Pack were held to 7 points after halftime. For the season, both defenses are allowing less than 20 PPG. 10* Under Packers/49ers

10* Over Seahawks/Packers (6:40 ET): All four Wild Card games were low-scoring and stayed Under the total. But the final Divisional Round matchup of the weekend figures to see some “fireworks” as arguably the two most overachieving teams in the NFL collide at Lambeau Field. Seattle, who beat Philadelphia 17-9 last weekend, is now 12-5 straight up. But they have just one win all year by more than eight points. Green Bay went 13-3 SU in the regular season, thus earning a bye, but they only outscored their opponents by 63 points and were 7-1 SU in one-score games. 

So I won’t dare make a play on the side here. But the total and how it’s been bet has caught my eye. While the win in Philly was ugly, Seattle did gain an impressive 6.7 yards per play last Sunday. That’s a strong average and I’m not sure the Packers defense is much better than the Eagles. Some traditional measures, like points allowed, might make it seem like they are. But Green Bay gave up more yards on a per play and per game basis. It’s been awhile since the Packers defense faced a QB anywhere near as dynamic as Russell Wilson.

The Packers’ ended the regular season on a 7-1 Under run including 4-0 L4. But again, the offenses they went against were not the best. The only three playoff teams they faced that weren’t Minnesota all scored at least 24 points on them. And one of the Minnesota games saw the Vikings gain over 7.0 YPP. The other they were without RB Dalvin Cook. Seattle’s defense isn’t that great either (allows 375 YPG, 6.1 YPP) and will be facing Aaron Rodgers, not Josh McCown. Rodgers has had a “down” year, but I look for him to play well here. 10* Over Seahawks/Packers

10* Under Vikings/Saints (1:00 ET): Finishing the regular season 10-6 SU is pretty good, but I feel Minnesota is better than their record as they played the last two games w/o RB Dalvin Cook and lost both. (Furthermore, they basically rested everyone in a meaningless Week 17 game vs. Chicago). Their YTD point differential of +104 was better than all but six teams in the league. That said, if they are to keep this Wild Card Game in New Orleans close, or even pull the outright upset, it'll likely be because of a defense that allows just only 18.9 PPG rather than Kirk Cousins and the offense. The O/U line has been bet up here and I see value on the Under.

The Saints went 13-3 SU despite missing Drew Brees for 5+ games. They won all five games Brees didn't start, which was key. But there's no doubt this team hit its stride down the stretch w/ Brees back in the lineup. Still don't discount the impact the Saints defense has had on the team's success this season. It's been the best in the league at stopping the run over the L2 years and that's key when facing a Vikings' offense that is going to look to put the ball in Cook's hands. 

In case you're wondering, this is a pretty high spread for the Wild Card round. Going back to 2012, it's only the 8th instance of a WC Game having a spread of a TD or more. The previous seven all went Under the total! In fact, 10 of the last 11 WC games with a spread of at least six points stayed Under. New Orleans is giving up only 21.3 PPG and allowed 17 pts or fewer seven times. 10* Under Vikings/Saints

10* Over Tulane/Southern Miss (11:30 AM ET): The Armed Forces Bowl in Ft. Worth, TX will be the home for our top College Football bowl total. Both Tulane and Southern Miss are led by the respective offenses, each of which can claim to have a QB that accounted for at least 3,000 total yards. In the case of Tulane's Justin McMillan, he ran for 704 yards in addition to throwing for 2,229. Nearly half (12) of his 26 total TD's came on the ground. Southern Miss QB Jack Abraham got there in more of a "traditional sense" with 3,329 yards passing, though five of his 23 total TDs were rushing. Take the Over here. 

Tulane didn't exactly play well down the stretch as they come in having lost five of six, including three straight. This is the exact opposite of last year when they started 2-5 SU before closing on a 5-1 run that included a 41-24 bowl win (Cure) over Louisiana. Still they did go 6-1 SU/ATS as chalk in 2019 and they are favored in this game. That's pretty significant as the Green Wave averaged 41.1 PPG this year when favored. But it's also easy to see why they faltered down the stretch and that's a leaky defense that gave up an average of 35.7 points those L6 games. 

The Southern Miss offense didn't do much of anything in the last two regular season games and that's what cost them a shot at playing for the C-USA Championship. In fact, the Golden Eagles' last five games have all stayed Under. But this is a bowl game and I expect a more wide open offensive display. You have two offenses averaging over 400 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. These are old rivals both happy to be in a bowl game. Southern Miss scored 30 or more seven times while Tulane crossed that threshold eight times. Be prepared for a shootout. 10* Over Tulane/Southern Miss

10* Over Boston College/Cincinnati (3:00 ET): B.C. is clearly not at "full strength" entering the Birmingham Bowl. Despite leading his (now former) team to an upset win over Pitt in the regular season finale (that got them bowl eligible), Steve Addazio was let go as the HC after seven seasons where the Eagles never finished w/ more than seven victories. RB A.J. Dillon, the team's best player, won't be suiting up here either as he's getting ready for the NFL Draft. So it's no wonder B.C. is a decided underdog here. But if we've learned anything about the Eagles it's that they are a dangerous underdog. They've covered 13 of the last 19 times getting points including a 9-0 ATS record priced between +3.5 and +10.  Five of those nine covers came this season.

Furthermore, Cincinnati comes into this game with a possible lack of motivation after suffering B2B losses to Memphis. The second was in the American Conference Championship Game and that cost them the chance to play in the Cotton Bowl. Still, Luke Fickell has done a good job here in guiding the program to B2B 10+ win seasons and the Bearcats are definitely a better team than B.C. But will they show up? One thing I'm counting on is Cincy scoring plenty of points in this one as the Boston College defense was not up to par in 2019, giving up 31.7 points and 480.3 yards per game. The Eagles are among the worst teams in the country at defending the pass. 

Despite Dillon sitting out and an interim head coach (Rich Gunnell), I expect Boston College's offense to perform better than expected. Dillon's backup David Bailey ran for 811 yards and seven touchdowns in the regular season. This is an offense that averaged more than 30 PPG. But the B.C. defense remains a major liability. Cincinnati comes in on a five-game Under streak, but I expect that to change here in a game where both teams could go for 30+ pts. Another key factor is that the Bearcats' defense allowed only 13.3 PPG at home, but 28.9 PPG on the road. 10* Over Boston College/Cincinnati

10* Over Georgia State/Wyoming (4:30 ET): Admittedly, Wyoming very much has the statistical profile of an Under team. They have a defense that allows just 17.8 points per game and just 2.9 yards per rush. Meanwhile, the offense comes into the Arizona Bowl averaging just 24.3 PPG and 18.3 outside of Laramie. Since QB Sean Chambers (dual threat) went down with a season-ending knee injury, it's no wonder that every Cowboys game has finished Under the total. Overall, they are on a six-game Under streak coming into this game. 

However, it's a much different story with the Georgia State defense, which allows a 65% completion percentage and 5.3 yards per carry. They give up 36.1 points and 451 yards per game and those numbers get even worse away from home. Thankfully though, the Panthers can score. They average 32.4 points and 446.9 yards per game. So this will be a real "clash of styles" on New Year's Eve afternoon. 

The Wyoming offense may not have the most impressive resume, but they come into the Arizona Bowl as a bit of a "wild card" due to the fact seldom used freshman Levi Williams will get the start at QB. Look for the Pokes to heavily lean on RB Xazavian Valladay, who had a 1,000 yd regular season. Given that Georgia State's defense allows such a high number of YPC, look for Wyoming to move the ball more than they usually do. There were seven different games this season where Georgia State opponents had 200+ rushing yards. Those six opponents averaged a whopping 42.2 PPG, all but one scoring at least 37. The Georgia State offense will do enough to help get this one get Over. 10* Over Georgia State/Wyoming  

10* Under Virginia/Florida (8:00 ET): The Orange Bowl is expected to be pretty lopsided with Florida now a two-touchdown favorite over Virginia. Virginia did win its division (ACC Coastal) and will always hold a special place in our hearts as they were our 10* Game of the Year against Virginia Tech in the regular season finale. They got it done, winning 39-30 as a 1.5-point underdog. That win also snapped a 15-year losing skid to the Hokies. Unfortunately, the Hoos then got their doors blown off in the ACC Championship Game by Clemson, losing 62-17. So its easy to see why they are such big dogs for this game. 

Florida surprised me some by delivering a second straight 10-win season for HC Dan Mullen. The Gators' only two losses were to LSU and Georgia. They won their last three games by a total of 96 points. The QB situation is something to monitor here. While Kyle Trask completed over 67% of his attempts for 2,636 yards, there have been rumblings about Mullen wanting to "open things up" with Emory Jones.

Virginia's offense averaged 32.4 PPG (2nd most in school history) behind QB Bryce Perkins. I know their last five games all went Over, but look for the Cavaliers to struggle to move the ball here, much like they did vs. Clemson in the ACC Championship. Florida's defense allows just 14.4 PPG, has pitched three shutouts this year and has held five different opponents without a touchdown. Virginia doesn't really run the ball effectively, so if they become one-dimensional vs. Florida, they are in big trouble. Both teams scored a lot less away from home (Virginia just 22.5 PPG, Florida 26.5), so look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Virginia/Florida

10* Over Raiders/Broncos (4:25 ET): For a 7-8 team that's technically still alive for the playoffs, Oakland absolutely reeks. The Silver and Black have been outscored by 105 points this year. Only four teams have worse point differentials and none of them have more than five wins. Three of the four have four wins or less. How the Raiders have been able to get to 7-8 can be explained by a 7-2 SU record in one-score games. That's right. They have not won a game by more than eight points all year. Ironically, their largest win came in Week 1 against Denver, the team they'll conclude the regular season against.

Running back Josh Jacobs has been ruled out of this game, not a great sign for a Raiders team that needs A LOT to go right on Sunday to make the playoffs. But even w/o Jacobs, the likely NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, the Raiders still put up 24 points last week against a good Chargers' defense. Jacobs' replacement, DeAndre Washington, ran for 85 yards on 23 carries last week. That was along with QB Carr completing 26 of his 30 passes. Carr has completed over 83% of his pass attempts against the Broncos the L2 years, all of those of resulting in Oakland wins. 

It was a 24-16 final when these teams met on Monday Night Football in Week 1. That was back when the Broncos were still starting Joe Flacco at QB. Now its rookie Drew Lock. The Denver offense has generally been better with Lock at the helm, including in 27-17 win right here at home last week. The Oakland defense gives up 6.2 yards per play and 26.9 PPG. Look for WR Courtland Sutton to have a big game here. The L6 meetings may have all stayed Under, but this one won't. 10* Over Raiders/Broncos

8* Over Chargers/Chiefs (1:00 ET): This could be Philip Rivers final game as the QB of the Chargers. If this truly is it, then it comes in a manner all too familiar for him. The Chargers were a talented team this year, but simply failed to "get it done" in the "clutch." Last week's upset loss at home to the Raiders (24-17 as 6.5-pt chalk) dropped them to a mind-numbing 2-9 SU in one score games this season. Despite a 5-10 SU record, the Chargers have both outscored and outgained opponents this year. Whomever is the QB next year, this will be a better team.

Kansas City, having dominated the AFC West yet again, is headed to the playoffs. Seeding is still up in the air. They can still earn a first round bye w/ a win and Patriots loss. But seeing as New England is playing Miami at home, it's unlikely that scenario plays out. Still, the Chiefs do need to win here to avoid to falling to the #4 seed, which would happen if the Texans won and they lost. The Texans don't play until 4:00 ET, so KC won't know what that result is while this game is ongoing. So expect a strong start by the offense to try and put this one to bed. 

It's been KC's defense leading the charge in a 5-0 SU/ATS run since the bye week (Under also 5-0). They've given up an average of just 9.6 PPG and allowed only THREE touchdowns. The streak started with a 24-17 win over these Chargers, but the total for that game was much higher (51.5). We know what the Chiefs' offense is capable of, but the Chargers come in averaging a respectable 367.5 yards per game. They are capable of putting 20+ on the board, which would make this an easy Over. 8* Over Chargers/Chiefs

analysis soon

10* Over Steelers/Jets (1:00 ET): Obviously, you shouldn't expect this game to turn into any kind of shootout. But the total is too low in my opinion and I'll be playing the Over. Yes, that attempt failed in the Steelers' game last week against the Bills. But it certainly had its chances to go Over. Pittsburgh QB Devlin Hodges had two chances to tie the game, but threw interceptions in the end zone both times. Had he directed a game-tying drive, then the game would have gone to overtime (duh!) and then gone Over had either team simply kicked a field goal. This time, the Under streak for Pittsburgh (currently six games) ends. 

The Jets, save for the disastrous effort a few weeks back at Cincinnati, have been a decent offensive team as long as Sam Darnold is in at QB. They've scored at least 21 points in five of their last six games. Remember, I had a big Over play with them when they faced a Redskins team that was on an Under streak similar to the one the Steelers find themselves on now. The Jets giving up 42 points last week can probably be chalked up to "facing the Ravens," but I still think it's a better matchup for Pittsburgh than it was vs. Buffalo last week. 

The 10 points Pittsburgh scored last week marked their third fewest in a game all season. The Over is 5-2 when they are coming off a game where they scored 15 pts or less Hodges definitely did struggle, but it'll be easier for him if Ju-Ju Smith Schuster returns to the lineup this week. Schuster has been M.I.A. since the first Browns game, but was a full participant in practice Thursday. A notable name ON the injury list for the Steelers was CB Joe Haden, which would obviously hamper the secondary. The Jets are 6-1 Over following an ATS loss. 10* Over Steelers/Jets

10* Over Central Michigan/San Diego State (2:00 ET): The New Mexico Bowl pits Central Michigan of the MAC against San Diego State of the Mountain West. Both teams saw their respective regular seasons end in disappointment. Central Michigan lost outright (to Miami) as a favorite in the MAC Championship Game while San Diego State lost a de facto division title game to Hawaii, which would have given it the right to play for its own conference title. The Aztecs did bounce back to defeat BYU 13-3 in the regular season finale, so unlike CMU they are off a win.

San Diego State was the #1 under team during the regular season with an O/U mark of 1-11. Their last six games have all stayed Under and have been incredibly low-scoring by modern college football standards. This is a team that averages just 19.0 PPG, which falls in the bottom 12 of all of FBS and is the lowest average among bowl teams. To help counteract that, the Aztecs defense allows only 12.8 PPG, which ranks 4th in the FBS. The only teams to allow fewer are: Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State. But the big key here for the Aztecs is that QB Ryan Agnew will be back in the lineup after he missed the BYU game. 

While San Diego State certainly has the profile to match its O/U results, this is a bowl game and often times that means you don't get the same kind of defensive intensity. It's also an early start time for SDSU, so don't be surprised if the defense is a bit "sleepy" to start. Central Michigan averages 31.9 PPG and had scored 38+ in six of seven before losing the MAC Champ Game. At the same time, the Chippewas defense isn't good outside of Mt Pleasant as they allow 34.6 PPG on the road. SDSU HC Rocky Long knows CMU HC Jim McElwain well from the time the former spent at Colorado State. McElwain has done a great job in his first year here (CMU was 1-11 LY) and you can look for it to end w/ an Over. 10* Over Central Michigan/San Diego State

analysis soon

10* Under Colts/Saints (8:15 ET): While New Orleans is 10-3, I've been pretty consistent this year in labeling them as a team that has been both "lucky" and "good." They've gone 7-1 SU in games decided by eight points or fewer, that lone loss coming last week to San Francisco by a score of 48-46. While it is tough to imagine the Saints dropping two straight at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, I'm not going to lay this many points w/ a team that has only three double digits wins this season, only one of those coming at home. Indianapolis, fighting for its playoff life, isn't about to simply "roll over" either. 

The Colts know a thing or two about close games. All but two of their games this season have been decided by seven points or less. One was a win, 33-13 vs. Jacksonville, and the other was a loss (31-17 vs. Tennessee). The only reason they lost that game to the Titans by more than a touchdown was an Adam Vinateri FG getting blocked and returned for a TD. 

With both teams coming off very high scoring losses (Colts lost 38-35 at TB), it's no wonder that the O/U has been bet up for Monday night. However, this Colts' offense hasn't performed up to par for three straight games now. The defense had a TD last week, something they can't continue to count on. WR TY Hilton remained limited in practice this week and will be a game-time decision. The offense just hasn't been the same without him. This could close as the 2nd highest O/U line of the year for the Colts despite them not having Hilton. 10* Under Colts/Saints

10* Over Bills/Steelers (8:20 ET): This game was "flexed" into the Sunday Night spot because - as of right now - these would be your two Wild Card teams in the AFC. Buffalo is 9-4, though coming off a 24-17 home loss to Baltimore. Pittsburgh has improbably continued to win and now is 8-5 following a 23-17 win over Arizona last week. Both teams are known more for their defenses, which is why we've got such a low total here. In addition, the last five Steelers games have all stayed Under (and last 3 for the Bills). But I look for this one to end that streak as it won't take much scoring. 

The Bills at one point had gone Under five straight times this season. It was back in the first five weeks of the season. I took them Over the following week, despite facing the lowest scoring team in the league (Miami) and sure enough the game went Over. You just don't see many teams go Over or Under more than five consecutive times. Even with the low amount of scoring in games involving these teams, the average number of total PPG for both just exceeds the current O/U line. Bills games average 37.4 PPG this year. Steelers games average 38.4. All we are asking for here is an "average" game. 

Devlin "Duck" Hodges is the latest player to step up for a Steelers offense that has been hit extremely hard by injuries. The offense has operated more efficiently w/ him than it did when Mason Rudolph was under center. In the three games Hodges has started this year, Pittsburgh has scored 24, 23 and 20 points. They should find success running the ball here as that's the weakness of the Bills' defense. QB Josh Allen played a terrible game last week against Baltimore, but should have a bounce back game here. The Over is 13-4 the L17 games where the Steelers were a home favorite. 10* Over Bills/Steelers

10* Under Texans/Titans (1:00 ET): While there's far more on the line here than just Tennessee's 7-game Over streak (like first place in the AFC South), that's what will be our focus here as it's time for my biggest NFL O/U release of the season! The key to the Titants getting hot has been Ryan Tannehill of all people. Since taking over for the ineffective Marcus Mariota, Tannehill has led the team to a 6-1 SU record (5-1-1 ATS), which now has them in a first place tie w/ the Texans. During the 6-1 streak, Tennessee has averaged 31.4 PPG. The only QB w/ a better passer rating - or WL record - than Tannehill over the L7 wks is Lamar Jackson. 

Tannehill becoming the Titans' starting QB also directly coincides w/ the team's 7-0 Over streak. Now they get set to for the first of two games w/ the Texans, who were just bushwhacked by Denver last week. Houston trailed 38-3 after the first drive of the second half and needed some garbage time scores from DeShaun Watson just to make things look reasonable (ended up losing 38-24). Making that result all the more head-scratching is the fact the Texans had just beaten the Patriots the previous week. I know there's been some concerns about the defense ever since JJ Watt went down, but Romeo Crenell's group should be playing better than it has. 

While Tannehill deserves most of the credit for Tennessee catching fire, his defense and special teams have both regularly contributed to the scoring as well. There's been a non-offensive TD each of the L2 wks for the Titans. Plus, they are getting a ridiculous number of "big" plays (65+ yd TDs) as well. Eventually, that's going to dry up. They have not scored more than 24 points against Houston since 2010! As for the Titans' defense, it has allowed more than 23 pts in only two games this season. This is the Under we are looking for. 10* Under Texans/Titans

10* Under Titans/Raiders (4:25 ET): Since taking over for the ineffective Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill has led the Titans to a 5-1 SU (4-1-1 ATS) record and an average of almost 30 PPG. But before we go crediting this journeyman too much, let's note Tennessee's scoring average has not been all the offense's doing. Special teams and defense have both contributed to the scoring as well and that's something you cannot count on every game. Facing a Raiders team that has scored a grand total of 29 points its last three games, look for the Titans' 6-0 Over streak to end Sunday. 

So like I said, Tannehill has certainly had ample assistance since becoming the Titans' starting QB. Five weeks ago vs. Tampa Bay, the offense had two TD drives that started inside the opponents' 10-yard line. Three weeks ago, Tennessee had no business beating Kansas City, but got a defensive TD + a FG block that set up the GW score. Against Jacksonville two weeks ago, there was a six play sequence where they scored FOUR touchdowns, which is an insane occurrence. Last week's game vs. Indianapolis was tied 17-17 going into the final five minutes, but the Titans returned a blocked FG for a TD, then sent the game Over w/ a TD off a Colts turnover. The offense gained less than 300 total yards in the 31-17 victory.

Oakland has barely done any scoring of late. They rank last in the league the L3 weeks in points per drive at 0.85. This just doesn't seem like the time or place for Derek Carr and company to get back on track as they are facing the league's 7th best scoring defense (19.5 PPG allowed). Tennessee has held nine of its 12 opponents to 20 points or less this season. RB Josh Jacobs just recently revealed he's been playing with a fractured shoulder, so expect him to be less effective moving forward, especially with the right side of the Raiders' offensive line also banged up. 10* Under Titans/Raiders 

10* Under Cowboys/Bears (8:20 ET): Both teams are 6-6 SU, which seems crazy given the negativity surrounding the respective franchises. I faded Dallas on Thanksgiving, citing the rather toxic situation that exists between coach (Jason Garrett) and owner (Jerry Jones) right now. Sure there's plenty of talent on the field. The Cowboys also boast the league's 5th best point differential (+74). But that's largely been undone by the fact they are also 0-4 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less, a stark contrast to last season when they were a league-best 9-2 SU in that situation. 

Chicago won 12 games last season (and the division), making them one of the favorites in the NFC coming into 2019. QB Mitch Trubisky was even getting consideration as a potential MVP candidate by bettors, which is downright laughable in retrospect. But the Bears have regressed badly, which really isn't all that shocking and it's easy to pinpoint why. The offense, Trubisky in particular, have been BRUTAL. They come in averaging just 17.7 PPG, which is 27th in the league and none of the teams that rank below them have more than four wins. Luckily, they also have a defense that is allowing 17.3 PPG (4th best). 

The 24 pts scored by the Bears last week in the win over Detroit actually marked a six-week high for them. I had the Over, but the number was really low thanks to the Lions' iffy QB situation. Considering Chicago has scored more than 25 pts only only time all season - and it was Wk 3 on a terrible Washington team - I'd say they aren't much of a threat to score a ton of points Thursday night. Dallas is only allowing 19.7 PPG. As for the Cowboys' offense, despite all that talent, they've scored all of 24 pts the L2 games combined. Granted, that was facing two of the top three scoring defenses in the NFL, but as stated above, the Bears rank 4th in that department. 10* Under Cowboys/Bears 

10* Under Titans/Colts (1:00 ET): What an interesting season it's been with Tennesee totals. After winning the season opener 43-13 in Cleveland (easy Over), the next five games all stayed Under. I took the Over when they hosted the Chargers on Oct 20 and it cashed (barely). Since then, every game has gone Over. If you're looking for a reason for the big change, it can be tied to Ryan Tannehill of all people as the Titans offense has been much more effective w/ him as the QB as opposed to Marcus Mariota. But I like the Under this week as the Titans are matched up w/ a familiar opponent.

The Colts played the Titans in Week 2. It was a 19-17 game, won by Indianapolis. Mariota started that game for Tennessee, so this will be Indy's first look at Fitzpatrick in a Titans' uniform. In the games Tannehill has started, Tennessee is 1st in the league in red zone efficiency, scoring a TD on 13 of 14 possessions. But I'm still skeptical of Tannehill. The Colts' defense is allowing just 20.5 PPG and has allowed more than 24 in regulation just two times all year. The Titans' L2 games have seen them score their highest point totals since the season opener, but they still are averaging just 22.3 PPG on the year and 18.8 PPG on the road.

The Colts' offense likes to run the ball but RB Marlon Mack (hand) is still out. Plus, the Tennessee defense has permitted only one 100+ yard rusher all season - and it was Christian McCaffery. The Titans are allowing just 19.7 PPG on the year and 17.8 PPG on the road. So we're looking at some really low-scoring games when the Titans are the road team. Speaking of low-scoring, the Colts managed only 17 points LW in Houston. WR TY Hilton is also out here. The Titans scored 4 TDs in six offensive plays last week, which will not happen again. 10* Under Titans/Colts 

8* Over BYU/San Diego State (9:00 ET): A tough spot for SDSU here. The Aztecs lost out in Hawaii last week, a game that decided the MWC West Division. The disappointment of knowing they won't be able to play for a conference championship will likely linger into this regular season finale vs. BYU. Brigham Young is an independent, thus they have no such distractions. They've won five straight, two of them against Mt West teams including the likely conference champ Boise State. They've already booked a trip to the 2019 Hawaii Bowl. I don't this game will have the same defensive intensity as it would have were it played a few weeks ago. Take the Over. 

Every San Diego State game but one has gone Under this year (10-1 Under). But coming off the close loss to Hawaii last week, I don't see the Aztecs' defense playing up to its usual standard. It was an 'ugly' 14-11 setback out on the island w/ a missed FG in the final minute being the difference. I realize the Aztecs' offense has struggled mightily throughout this 2019 season and will be w/o QB Ryan Agnew here. But if they can get close to 20 points (they average 19.5 PPG), then this should be an easy Over w/ the number being so low.

BYU is banged up in the backfield as well, but still scored 56 points last week. I know that was against a terrible UMass defense, but the Cougars have averaged almost 40 PPG during their current win streak. I know they aren't likely to approach that number this week, but even half that would likely lead to an Over. BYU has dominated San Diego State through the years, winning six straight and 9 of 10 going back to 2002. It's important to note this will be the lowest O/U for the Cougars this season. The only lower O/U for SDSU was the one time they went Over (vs. Wyoming).  This game finds a way to get Over. 8* Over BYU/San Diego St

***THIS PLAY IS ACTUALLY ON THE OVER 

10* Over Wyoming/Air Force (2:00 ET): I've had lots of success betting Air Force games this season, starting w/ the Flyboys' 31-7 thrashing of Utah State in a late night home game back on October 26th. Since then, I've managed to both successfully fade them (laying 17 to Army) and cash them (at Colorado State, thanks to a late pick-six). The Falcons come into the regular season finale at 9-2 (2nd best record among Mt West teams) after clobbering New Mexico 44-22 last week, a game I did not play. Considering how much they've been scoring of late, I think Over is a more than reasonable play here, especially w/ such a low number. 

The reason for the total being so low here is Wyoming. The Cowboys have gone Under in five straight games and they've all been low-scoring affairs. QB Sean Chambers being lost for the season has played a big hand in the offense not doing much, but the Pokes do have a pretty good defense as well. Not since Missouri in the season opener has a Wyoming opponent scored more than 26 points. But I wouldn't be too convinced that the Cowboys are looking forward to facing the vaunted AFA triple option offense in this regular season finale. Other than vs. their fellow service academies (Army, Navy) and Boise State, Air Force has scored at least 30 points in every game this season.

The Falcons will certainly be motivated coming into this game. Not only can they make it a 10-win season, but they also are looking to snap a three-year losing skid to Wyoming. Two of those losses have come as favorites and they've given up at least 28 points in every game. But Wyoming has been a strong underdog this year, beating Missouri outright as a 16.5-pt dog and then only losing by a combined 15 pts the other four times they've gotten points. I get how Wyoming games have trended lately, but this O/U line is set to be the lowest for both teams this year. Even against a stout run defense, Air Force will get its ground game going. 10* Over Wyoming/Air Force

10* Under Toledo/Central Michigan (12:00 ET): The complexion of this game was altered dramatically by Western Michigan losing Tuesday. Now the door is wide open for Central Michigan to win the MAC West. All the Chippewas must do is win this game, which they are expected to comfortably (now a double-digit favorite). But don't expect Toledo to roll over. The Rockets are bowl eligible, but a loss here would leave them at 6-6. With more MAC teams bowl eligible than there are available bowl slots, some of the 6-win teams are inevitably going to be left out. Toledo doesn't want to see it's 9-year bowl streak come to an end. 

If you've been following either of these teams, then you know both have been going Over the total with great regularity. Toledo is 5-0 Over its last five games while CMU is 6-0 Over its last six. But if you've been following my O/U plays during this great streak that I'm on, then you already know that fading such streaks has been "the name of the game." This is a higher O/U line than either team is used to seeing. Four of the five straight Toledo games that have gone Over have seen O/U lines of 58.5 pts or lower. Their games average 59.7 PPG for the season. Central Michigan has seen totals in the high 40's during their Over streak and this will be the highest O/U line for any of their games this year. CMU games average 60.0 PPG on the nose.

Putting aside the total for a moment, the streak CMU is more concerned about ending is nine straight losses to Toledo. While four of those losses have occurred in Mt. Pleasant, getting this game at home is huge for the Chippewas as they are allowing only 19.8 PPG here (5-0 SU). Toledo's scoring average drops to 23.2 PPG on the road. CMU has not scored more than 17 pts on the Rockets' defense since 2015. While this is a better team going against an inferior Toledo product, expect the offense to not totally have its way. This is potentially a "nervous moment" for the Chippewas. 10* Under Toledo/Central Michigan

10* Under Saints/Falcons (8:20 ET): When I released Atlanta as a *10* Game of the Week selection three weeks ago in New Orleans, admittedly there wasn't much belief that the Falcons would win straight up. After all, they were two touchdown underdogs to a Saints team that hadn't lost since Week 2. But win straight up is precisely what the Dirty Birds did. The most shocking thing about it is just how dominant a SU victory it was. A previously non-existent pass rush showed up in a major way for Atlanta w/ 6 sacks and 11 QB hits and they led pretty much from start to finish in what ended up being a 26-9 final. Can the defense do it again? I think so! Take the Under here. 

The week after they stunned the Saints, the Falcons defense stepped up big again in a 29-3 win at Carolina. At that point, it certainly "felt" as though their season might be turning around as they returned home to face a fellow 3-7 team, Tampa Bay. But we faded and the Falcons lost 35-22. Not sure what happened to that defensive resurgence, but the Bucs offense had a big day. Atlanta's offense did not w/ only 13 pts through three quarters. They had a late garbage time TD that sent the game Over. That Over would not have been possible w/o a late TB defensive score as well. The Falcons only average 22.0 PPG this year.

The Saints have been one of the luckier teams this year. They were fortunate to go 5-0 SU w/ Teddy Bridgewater filling in for an injured Drew Brees. Last week, they pulled another "rabbit out of the hat" w/ a 34-31 win over Carolina, kicking a GW FG as time expired, only after Carolina missed its own FG try. Though they appeared to look "as good as ever" last week, this Saints' offense has its problems. They tend to start slow and have had four different games where they failed to score a TD in the first three quarters. They only average 24.7 PPG, but are fortunate to have a defense which allows just 20.9 PPG. 10* Under Saints/Falcons

8* Over Bears/Lions (12:35 ET): Low total here as both teams have been going Under quite regularly of late, including one game where they played each other. That 20-13 Week 10 result (that went in the Bears' favor) marked the first time the Lions were forced to start Jeff Driskel in place of the injured Matt Stafford. While it may seem a little challenging to handicap this rematch in light of the Lions' QB situation (they may be down to third-stringer David Blough), I am forging ahead w/ the Over. It doesn't take all that much to send a game Over a total like this. 

Chicago has had its own QB issues, bouncing back and forth between Mitchell Trubisky and backup Chase Daniel. Given how ineffective he's been, it's stunning to think back to August when Trubisky was getting bets to win league MVP. He did lead his team to victory last Sunday, 19-14 over the Giants, and while it was ugly the Bears offense did gain 20 first downs. All 19 pts were scored in the 3rd quarter. The Lions' defense they'll be up against here is not good. It has allowed at least 23 points in all but three games this year. 

Obviously, I'm hopeful Driskel will be the starter here for the Lions. But if not, I'm still confident the offense will be able to score enough to help send this one Over. I know both offenses are short-handed, but this reminds me of a few weeks ago when I bet the Over on Jets-Redskins and won. This is the NFL and eventually an offense is going to start scoring. In this case, we have two that are long overdue to put some points on the road. Two weeks ago, with Driskel at the helm, the Lions did score 27 against the Cowboys. Last week's loss to the Redskins saw them put up a respectable 364 yards at 5.1 per play. 8* Over Bears/Lions

10* Under Western Michigan/Northern Illinois (7:00 ET): For Western Michigan, the mission is simple here. Win and you are the MAC West Division Champs. Lose and you open the door for Central Michigan, who plays Friday (at home vs. Toledo). The Broncos come into this game at 7-4 SU and winners of three straight. They've averaged an impressive 40.3 PPG during the win streak, however, it should be pointed out that before the L2 both went Over, WMU's previous five contests were all Unders. That's the way I'm thinking here as we're "due" for a low-scoring game Tuesday night in DeKalb. 

At 4-7 SU, Northern Illinois has been reduced to the role of spoiler in this regular season finale. This is one of the weaker Huskies teams in years and it'll be just the second time in the last decade that they're NOT going bowling. A big problem has been the offense, which has been held to just 23.4 PPG this year. They scored only 17 in a blowout loss to Eastern Michigan last week. On the bright side, the defense often "shows up" here at home (not last week) where it is allowing only 20.5 PPG. Last week saw NIU give up 24 pts in the 3Q w/ 10 of those coming off two turnovers that led to short fields.

Western Michigan had to go to OT last week to pick up its first road win of the season. The Broncos beat Ohio 37-34, a game which was 10-0 in their favor at halftime. The previous week saw another high scoring 2nd half, primarily the 4Q, against Ball State. They very easily could be coming into this game on a 7-game Under streak. NIU has gone Over in six straight, a streak I can't see continuing as their defense only allows 270 YPG at home for the season. Western Michigan's offense declines greatly on the road, down to 27.6 PPG. 10* Under Western Michigan/Northern Illinois

10* Over Ravens/Rams (8:20 ET): This is a much different Rams team than we’re accustomed to seeing under HC Sean McVay, especially on the offensive side of things. McVay’s first two years here brought back memories of the “Greatest Show on Turf,” but 2019 has seen QB Jared Goff regress to a level not seen since he was a rookie operating under a different coaching staff. At least the Rams defense has held up their “end of the bargain” recently, giving up a league-low 11 PPG the last four weeks. That’s allowed for a 3-1 SU record, but Monday night they are underdogs against Baltimore team that leads the league in scoring at 34.1 PPG. With the Ravens’ offense doing most of the “heavy lifting,” look for this game to go Over.

Those last four games have seen the Rams’ defense go up against Atlanta, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Chicago. Every single one of those opponents has had issues at the QB position. Baltimore has no issues w/ Lamar Jackson now the betting favorite to win league MVP. With Jackson passing and running, the Ravens have scored 30+ pts in four straight games. They scored a total of 90 in just the L2 games. Perhaps the most impressive thing of all with this Ravens’ offense is that they are averaging 38.4 PPG on the road! Remember the Rams gave up 55 at home to the 3-7 Bucs earlier this year. 

While I believe Baltimore will be playing a significant role in this game going Over, don’t discount what the Rams can do either. I know they are not what they’ve been the last two seasons, but they’ve faced two tough defenses the last two weeks. Baltimore’s D is giving up 5.8 yards per play. The Rams will get back WR Brandin Cooks this week, which should help not just Goff, but also fellow wideout Cooper Kupp. This Rams offense has had some rough days when facing some of the league’s top defenses, but they also have scored at least 27 points in half their games. I don’t consider the Ravens an elite team defensively anymore. 10* Over Ravens/Rams

8* Under Memphis/South Florida (4:00 ET): #18 Memphis has certainly been unkind to Under bettors this year, delivering seven consecutive Overs. But it should be pointed out that last week's needed a blocked punt return for a TD (by Houston) in the final minutes. The blocked punt came in the least urgent of situations too; with Memphis leading 45-20. The Tigers' defense actually turned in a solid effort, allowing just 256 total yards. When Houston got the ball on the Memphis' side of the field following a turnover, they were held to just a field goal after a 6-play, 8-yard drive. 

South Florida "should have" beaten Cincinnati last week. It was a game they outgained the opponent 438-278, had a 10-0 lead at halftime and never trailed until the final play. That final play was 37-yard FG w/ no time remaining. The Bulls' defense should at least hold its head high though. Cincinnati had scored 46 and 48 points the previous two weeks. USF has been pretty good at stopping the opponent all season, really. They've held five of the last six opponents to 23 points or less. While only one team (Temple) has been able to hold Memphis below 35 pts since the season opener, the Bulls just might be capable of doing so here at home. 

The problem for USF though is going to be an offense that really isn't capable of scoring a ton. Three of the last four games, the Bulls have been held to 17 points or fewer. The one exception was the hideous East Carolina defense. Against top 50 teams, the Bulls' offense is averaging less than 10 points per game this year! That is very bad! Though Memphis must win here to keep it's New Year's Six Bowl Game hopes alive, it's really all about next week's showdown vs. Cincinnati and then a potential rematch in the AAC Title Game. The defense will do its job, but so will USF's, which has allowed just three touchdowns in the past two games. 8* Under Memphis/South Florida

8* Over Texas A&M/Georgia (3:30 ET): This is an awfully low total for a game where both offenses are averaging more than 32.0 PPG. Of course, you have to factor in the great Georgia defense (10.5 PPG allowed) which has led to five straight Unders for them. But A&M will bring arguably the best offense they've seen in Athens all season, or at least since the Notre Dame game. The Aggies have won four straight and averaged 37.0 PPG while doing so. They just gained 540 total yards on a South Carolina defense that had held UGA to only 17 points. Take the Over in this one.

Texas A&M has three losses, but they were to Alabama (47-28), Clemson (24-10) and Auburn (28-20). That has them, arguably, as the best 3-loss team in the country. QB Mond is completing 64% of his pass attempts this season for nearly 2,500 yards. Said Georgia HC Kirby Smart, "Their receiving corps will be one of the best we've played against." This is a low total for an A&M game. This season has seen their games average 54.3 PPG. This'll be the lowest number for any game to date and they've gone Over 2 of the 3 that were below 55 points, which makes sense.

Believe it or not, but this will be the first time these schools have met as SEC rivals. While Georgia does average 32.4 PPG, they've been below that number in five straight games. In fact, they've failed to top 27 during that time. But this could be a breakout day as they honor the seniors in the final home game at Samford Stadium. A&M has allowed only 20 points the L2 weeks, but has also given up some high point totals this year, not just to the big boys either. They allowed 27 against Arkansas and 30 to Mississippi State. The Over is 6-1 the Aggies' L7 games vs. teams that have winning records. 8* Over Texas A&M/Georgia 

8* Under Boston College/Notre Dame (2:30 ET): This seems like an exceptionally high total for a game involving these two teams. Part of that is the fact B.C. has gone Over in five straight games. But still, seven of the last eight times these "Holy War" rivals have met, the game has gone Under. The exception was the last one, played two years ago, when Notre Dame won 49-20 in Chesnut Hill. Recent BC games have seen some outrageous scoring and the Fighting Irish did just hang 52 on Navy last week. But BC only managed 7 pts in its only game vs. a ranked foe this season (Clemson) and Notre Dame's defense has been pretty good, save for the Michigan disaster. Take the Under. 

Ever since QB Anthony Brown went down with an injury, Boston College's offense has become totally one-dimensional. Lucky for them, that one-dimension involves running the ball w/ A.J. Dillon. Two weeks ago against Syracuse, the Eagles gained a school-record 691 yds of total offense. But almost 500 of those came on the ground! Maybe they feel good about themselves going into this game as ND just allowed 281 yds rushing against Navy. But Navy's triple option is a "special animal" and the Irish actually allowed only 4.4 yards per carry. Facing such a run-heavy offense the week prior to B.C. should actually be to the defense's benefit. 

Coming off a bye week, Boston College's defense should be well prepared for QB Ian Book and the rest of the Notre Dame offense. That's going to be key for them because the Eagles don't figure to do much scoring in this game. The Fighting Irish have allowed more than 23 points in only one game this season and it was the disaster in Ann Arbor. They are 6-0 SU in South Bend, allowing an average of just 16.8 PPG. Given that B.C. is likely to be down big in this game, they'll have to abandon the run early (like they did vs. Clemson when the ran for just 97 yds) and passing just isn't their strong suit. 8* Under Boston College/Notre Dame

analysis soon

10* Under Toledo/Buffalo (7:30 ET): This is a pretty fair O/U line, in my opinion. Both teams have each gone Over in three straight (Toledo four straight). A year ago at this time, Buffalo was prepping to play in the MAC Title Game and was on its way to the first 10-win season in program history. Regression was all but assured this year, but tip your cap to the job done by Lance Leipold as the Bulls should be back in a bowl (need to win just 1 of their final 2 games). Last week's 30-27 OT loss at Kent State was a step in the wrong direction, however. UB (-6.5) blew a 27-6 lead, giving up 24 pts in the final eight minutes. I'm proud to state we had the underdog in that one. But we were a little lucky. 

Toledo has been a disappointment this year. The preseason to win the MAC West, the Rockets are just 3-3 in conference play and have been outscored by 42 pts. They are already bowl eligible, however, that probably doesn't erase the sting of LW's 31-28 home loss to Northern Illinois. That game, which was the Rockets' home finale, saw them come back from a 21-point deficit in the 4Q to tie things up at 28-28. But it was not to be as they lost on a last second FG. Despite snow, the game featured over 900 yards of total offense. Don't think we'll be seeing that again here. 

Buffalo's loss LW dropped them to 7-4 SU in weekday games under Leipold. Technically, Toledo is still alive to win the MAC West while Buffalo can't win the East (Miami has clinched). A case can be made that both teams' games last week could easily have stayed Under. The Buffalo defense played very well through three quarters against Kent State and it wasn't really their fault they lost the game. Two of Buffalo's 4Q TD's came after an onside kick and a blocked punt. The Bulls defense allowed less than 300 total yds in the game, which is par for the course as they are allowing just 273.5 YPG in conference play. Toledo's offense had only 7 points entering the 4Q last week and they've scored just 21 pts total their L2 road games. 10* Under Toledo/Buffalo

10* Under Eastern Michigan/Northern Illinois (7:30 ET): You know how this goes. Northern Illinois has gone Over in each of its last five games, so we're going to go the other way. After seeing totals mostly in the 40's, last Wednesday the Huskies did go Over 55.5 in a 31-28 win over Toledo. But, of note, is the fact they held the Rockets to just 7 points in the first three quarters. By winning that game, NIU kept alive its chances of becoming bowl eligible (currently 4-6 SU) and now they must win their final two games, both of which are at home where they are allowing just 12.3 PPG on the year.

This is the second straight Tuesday game for Eastern Michigan. One week ago, the Eagles scored a season-high 42 points in a victory, but that came at the expense of winless Akron. It'll be a much tougher defense that EMU is facing this week. The Eagles are on a 3-game Over streak of their own heading into this contest, but like Northern Illinois, the O/U lines have generally been lower. Tonight's visitors are 3-1-1 to the Under this season with a total of 54.5 pts or higher. Last week was just the third time all season that NIU has scored more than 24 points.

A lot has been written this year about this not being the same caliber of Northern Illinois football that we are used to seeing. That's true, but it's also fair to point out that Huskies have gotten to play only three games in DeKalb! Getting these last two at home is huge for their bowl prospects. I mentioned earlier that the Huskies are allowing only 12.3 PPG here and while a lot of that has to do w/ the fact two of the games were against Akron (shutout) and a FCS school (Illinois State), they did hold Ball State to just 269 total yards in a 27-20 loss back on Oct 5. Eastern Michigan also needs a win to become bowl eligible, so they won't be run over here. Incredibly, the last three head to head meetings have all gone to OT. Yet none of the three games have seen more than 57 total pts scored and last year's 26-23 NIU win went to THREE overtimes! 10* Under Eastern Michigan/Northern Illinois

10* Over Chiefs/Chargers (8:15 ET): The Chiefs have owned the Chargers in recent seasons, winning 9 of the previous 10 head to head meetings. The one loss occurred the last time they met, Week 15 of last year when Los Angeles prevailed 29-28. But the Bolts were also a much better team last year. They wound up winning 12 games, the same number as KC. Like LA, the Chiefs come into this game somewhat desperate for a win as they have lost four of six, including Patrick Mahomes return from injury a week ago at Tennessee. The call is Over here as this should be a high-scoring game. 

While they aren't scoring as many points as last year (not surprising), there's nothing wrong w/ the Chiefs' offense. They've averaged 29.2 points in the games Mahomes has started. In his return last week, Mahomes threw for 433 yards in a losing effort. But the reason the team lost that game to the Titans is a defense that remains pretty awful. Last week marked the third time in five games that the Chiefs allowed 30+ points. They are also 31st in the league against the run, giving up 149 YPG. There's a reason the L3 Kansas City games have all gone Over.

With QB Philip Rivers leading the NFL in passing yardage (2,816) and RB Melvin Gordon off his 1st 100+ yard rushing game of the season, the Chargers have the horses necessary to take advantage of the Chiefs' poor defense. The two meetings LY saw 57 and 66 total pts scored. This game will be played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico. A questionable playing surface will make life hell for defenders in coverage. In addition to winning by fading KC last week, I also had the Over in the Chargers' 26-24 loss to the Raiders. 10* Over Chiefs/Chargers

10* Over Jets/Redskins (1:00 ET): The Jets finally woke up last week and scored a season-high 34 points in a rare win (just 2nd of the year), beating the Giants. Speaking of rare, the Redskins didn't lose last week. But that's only because they were on a bye. This is probably the league's ugliest game on paper since each team played Miami. Interestingly, Washington won their game in Miami (17-16) while the Jets lost theirs (26-18). But that doesn't mean as much when you consider the Skins suffered a 24-3 loss to the same Giants team that the Jets just beat. Bottom line is I'm expecting a higher scoring game than usual for these two teams. Take the Over.

Were the Jets to match last week's point total, then they'd be on the cusp of sending this one Over by themselves. Now expecting the Jets to score 34 points again seems a bit foolish. After all, last week was easily a season-high and just the second time they've topped 20 pts in a game all year! But this porous Redskins' defense may allow for something close to what we saw last week. While Washington's defensive numbers have gotten better as the season has worn on, they still allow a 72.5% completion percentage and 5.7 yards per play. They've gone against some weaker offenses recently and also played in a heavy downpour vs. San Francisco. I believe this will be one of the Jets' better offensive games of the year. They've scored 91 pts in the five games since Sam Darnold has been back, which may not sound like much, but it also includes getting shutout by New England.

The big news coming out of D.C. this week is that rookie QB Dwayne Haskins will be starting the rest of the way. Might as well as Washington's offense hasn't done much all year. The last six games have seen them score a total of 45 points, a stretch where the Under is 6-0. And remember they scored 17 of those 45 points in the win over Miami. But coming off a bye, Haskins should be the most prepared he's been all year. Similar to the Jets, I'm calling for one of the Redskins' better offensive efforts this week. It's not like the Jets' defense is all that great. They allow 29.0 PPG on the road and have given up at least 26 pts in six of their last seven games. 10* Over Jets/Redskins

8* Under Memphis/Houston (3:30 ET): If Memphis wins out, then they are going to be the Group of Five team that goes to the Cotton Bowl. I talked about that possibility when I took them all the way back in Week 1 vs. Ole Miss. The Tigers won that game against Rebels 15-10. But since then, they've scored 35 or more in every win (held to 28 in loss to Temple) w/ the last six games all going Over. We havent seen the Tigers since that epic 54-48 win over SMU two weeks ago. Off a bye, I'm looking for a little less scoring. Take the Under.

Houston's last two games have both gone Under by the tightest of margins. It was a 34-31 loss to SMU w/ a total of 66. Then it was a 44-29 loss at UCF where the total was 73.5. Still that proves they can go Under a high total when matched up against one of these elite AAC offenses. Remember that it's been a tumultuous 1st year for HC Dana Holgorsen. His star QB and WR both decided to redshirt midseason. It's a testament to his system that the offense has been able to score as much as they have. But, for the record, the Cougars have averaged just under 27 PPG the L4 weeks. 

Both teams are off a bye, so the offenses could come out a little rusty. Memphis will obviously find a way to score its fair share of points, but I'm also looking for them to play better defensively than they have in the last two games. In five of their first seven games, the Tigers allowed 24 points or less. My sense is they'll get back closer to that number here. Under Mike Norvell, the Memphis' offense has had its way with the Houston defense. But in their last home game, the Cougars did slow down an SMU offense that was averaging over 45 PPG. The Under is 5-1 the L6 times these teams have played in Houston. 8* Under Memphis/Houston

8* Over Kentucky/Vanderbilt (3:30 ET): While - on paper - this looks like a REAL ugly matchup out of the SEC, remember games are not played on paper. I anticipate it being a higher scoring game than anticipated. Last week, I took the Over w/ Vanderbilt. Even though they didn't score a single point, I still cashed a winning ticket! They gave up 56 points to Florida in a loss that guaranteed the Commodores won't be going bowling in Derrick Mason's 6th year here in Nashville. I have to wonder about the psyche of a defense following a loss like that. Take the Over again. 

Kentucky's offense has hardly been pretty this year. The Wildcats managed just 13 points last week as they lost outright as 3-pt home favorites to Tennessee (17-13). It was the sixth straight UK game to go Under the total. When they're on the road, the offensive numbers get quite dreadful as the Wildcats have put up 0, 13 and 7 points in their three games outside of Lexington this year. Ouch! But before losing to Tennessee, the Wildcats had put up 29 points (in an upset of Missouri) and I believe this offense is capable of much more w/ Lynn Bowden at the helm. They've run for 600 yards the L2 games despite a non-existent passing attack. UK will move the ball effectively this week. 

This game reminds me a lot of the Over play I had on South Alabama-Texas State last week. That too was a matchup of two putrid offensive teams (even worse than these two) that had nothing to play for. The game ended up being a 30-28 final and went Over midway in the third quarter. Kentucky did score 13 points in the 1st quarter last week before being shutout the rest of the way. But despite getting shutout in those final three quarters, the Wildcats had FIVE drives of at least 35 yds. Zero points on drives totaling 175+ yards is almost unheard-of inefficiency This Vandy offense did score 38 earlier this season on LSU, so there's hope for them too. We don't need many points here in what will be the lowest O/U line for either team this season . 8* Over Kentucky/Vanderbilt

8* Under Central Michigan/Ball State (3:30 ET): Central Michigan is not only coming off a bye week, but also five straight Overs. Key to that run though is that three of the five games took place in Mt. Pleasant where they average an impressive 43.0 PPG. In those three recent home games, the Chippewas scored 42 or more points. But this week will be a road game (in Muncie, IN) and on the road the Chips are averaging just 17.0 PPG, a massive decline. I like this game to go Under. 

Ball State was looking like it was having a breakthough season. Going into the final weekend of October, they were the only team MAC team w/o a conference loss. But now they've lost two in a row, 34-21 at home to Ohio and 35-31 at Western Michigan. That last game was played on a Tuesday and I cashed the Over. Interesting that they were facing a team that had gone Under in five straight. Now it's a team that's gone Over in five straight games. The Cardinals do average plenty of points here in Muncie, but I'm looking for some defensive improvement from them this week as well. 

This is the highest O/U line for any Central Michigan game since the last one that went Under (9.28 vs. Western Michigan). Something I'd like to point out w/ the Chippewas is that their defense has actually performed better than you think the L3 weeks. They've allowed just 323.7 YPG. These teams play every year and Ball State hasn't scored more than 24 points in any of the L4 meetings. The score was only 21-17 going into the 4Q last Tuesday vs. Western Michigan and only 28-24 w/ just over five minutes remaining. With the massive offensive decline CMU experiences on the road, Under is the right call here. 8* Under Central Michigan/Ball State

10* Under Fresno State/San Diego State (9:30 ET): This would certainly seem to be an exceedingly low total for a Fresno State team that has gone Over in five straight. Enter San Diego State, a team who is not only 8-1 Under on the year, but also allows just 14.4 PPG. At the same time, a Fresno State defense that has struggled mightily of late looks to be getting a respite by facing an opponent that doesn't score much either. My recent success betting CFB totals has a lot to do w/ bucking these streaks like the one FSU is currently on. So I say Under Friday night!

This year's Fresno State team simply isn't as good as the past two editions. Of course, in 2017, HC Jeff Tedford engineered the greatest single-season turnaround in CFB history. The Bulldogs went from 1-11 SU to 10-4. Shockingly, there was no regression in 2018 as they jumped to 12-2. But this year, the Bulldogs may not even make a bowl game. They are 4-5 after losing outright last week to Utah State, 37-35 as five-point home favorites. Some of that regression can be tied to a struggling defense. But SDSU is 11th in Mt West in scoring as well as last in YPG (326.6). This will be the weakest offense FSU has seen maybe all season. 

San Diego State also happens to be off an outright loss last Saturday, theirs an even larger embarrassment as they were 17-point favorites against Nevada, yet fell 17-13. The loss dropped them out of the Top 25, a place they didn't belong anyways. Defense was not an issue vs. Nevada as the Aztecs allowed just 226 total yards.  While the number of yards allowed ranked among the season's best performances, it was also pretty par for the course as the Aztecs are allowing just 277.1 YPG, which is top eight in the entire country! Six straight meetings between these teams have stayed Under, the last five all seeing no more than 37 total pts scored.  10* Under Fresno State/San Diego State

10* Under Seahawks/49ers (8:15 ET): I'm pretty shocked to see how little recent success the 49ers have had recently NFC West rivalry. Then again, I said the same thing going into last week's game vs. Arizona, whom they hadn't beaten since 2014. Now it's time to turn to Seattle. Going back to the infamous 2013 NFC Championship Game loss (where Richard Sherman sounded off on Michael Crabtree), the Niners had lost 10 in a row to the Seahawks. That losing streak ended w/ a 26-23 victory in Week 15 last year, right here at home as 3.5-point underdogs. Now the Niners look to make it two in a row as they put their perfect 8-0 SU record on the line Monday night. 

Last Thursday in Arizona was one of the rare times this SF defense looked mortal this season. They allowed the Cardinals to gain 7.1 yards per play in a game that got shockingly close at the end. The Niners still won though, 28-25. Going from playing on a Thursday night to MNF should allow for this defense to "get right" again. The 49ers are #1 in the league in yards allowed per game (241.0) and #2 in points (12.8). Only one QB (Andy Dalton!) has thrown for more than 240 yds against them as they've allowed the fewest number of completions and yards through the air. Bottom line is I expect a big bounce back effort from this excellent defense Monday night. 

The Niners' offense will be getting some key pieces back. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk is set to return as are the two starting tackles, Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey. But at the same time, TE George Kittle (who is Jimmy Garoppolo's favorite target) is doubtful and so is kicker Robbie Gould. So that's a break for the Seattle defense. The Under has gone 13-4 in Sunday/Monday night games this season (last night's MIN-DAL result pending) and w/ this being a divisional battle, I expect the same to happen here. 10* Under Seahawks/49ers

**As a BONUS, do a 7-pt teaser on side & total. SF +1 and Under 55

10* Under Panthers/Packers (4:25 ET): Going back to 2005, the Over is 7-0 when these teams meet. But as we saw last week, the Packers offense is far from perfect. In a game where we faded them, they were held to 13 first downs, 184 yards total and 3.8 yards per play. They lost 26-11 out in LA, ending what had been a 4-game win streak. At 7-2, GB is still in good shape as they'll likely be favored in all but two games the rest of the way. But last week's offensive effort is tough to shake for us. This is a team "due" for some Unders after 5 of 6 games prior to last week's loss had gone Over. We're on the Under here. 

Carolina has gone Over in four straight games scoring 30+ in three of them (all wins) while conceding 51 (to San Francisco) in the lone loss. We were on that Over in the loss to San Francisco. The Panthers are now officially Kyle Allen's team after Cam Newton was placed on IR this week. If Newton wasn't 100 percent, then that's the right decision. But I have a hard time believing this team is better, long-term, w/ Allen at the helm. They were held under 300 yds by a poor Tampa Bay defense three weeks ago in London. Last week was just the second time in the L5 games they gained more than 300 total yards. 

On paper, this Packers defense facing Carolina RB Christian McCaffery doesn't seem like a good matchup. It seems as if any "improvement" by this Packers defense may have been overstated early in the year when they were facing some weak defenses. Since Wk 4, they've given up at least 22 pts every game. But I'm calling for their best defensive effort since Week 3 in this one. In terms of YPG, both of these offenses rank in the bottom half of the league. The Over streaks, both head to head and for Carolina, are "due" to end here. 10* Under Panthers/Packers

8* Over Iowa/Wisconsin (4:00 ET): Another game w/ a really low total. Iowa has not fared well as an underdog, going just 4-11 ATS the L15 times. As a ROAD underdog, things get even more bleak as they are 0-7 SU/ATS the L7 times in that role. The Hawkeyes have not beaten a ranked opponent all season and have lost six of seven to Wisconsin, including 28-17 LY in Iowa City. Giving the Hawkeyes some hope here is the fact the Badgers have lost two straight games, one of them to Illinois. But both losses were on the road. I know both defenses are outstanding, but this Wisconsin offense is much better in Madison. Look for this one to sneak Over the total. 

Both teams are off byes. Last we saw Wisconsin, they were getting blown out by Ohio State (lost 38-7). The Badgers entered that game absolutely shell-shocked after losing at Illinois the week prior, as a 29-point favorite. They'd been humming right along prior to that, scoring 35 or more points five times in a 6-0 start. I know the defense has pitched four shutouts this year, but those came against some pretty overmatched offenses. Five consecutive Unders have this O/U line as the lowest all season for the Badgers. Every Wisconsin game this season has seen at least 38 total pts scored. They average 41.2 PPG themselves at Camp Randall. 

While Wisconsin's defense is #1 in the country in yards allowed, Iowa's is even stingier in the points allowed department. The Hawkeyes have allowed just 10.1 PPG, the lowest average in Kirk Ferentz's 21 years in Iowa City. They've allowed just 9 TDs all year, which is tied for 2nd fewest. But the oddsmakers were well aware of all this when they set this total. Iowa has gone Under four straight times, but only the last game (20-0 shutout of a terrible Northwestern team) had a lower O/U line. If both teams can score at least 17 points here, which really isn't asking much, then we're virtually assured of an Over. Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor has 19 TD's himself this season while Iowa QB Nate Stanley has the most passing yards in the Big 10. 8* Over Iowa/Wisconsin

8* Under North Texas/La Tech (4:00 ET): With two explosive offenses, this number has been bet way up during the week. But I like the Under, in large part due to the recent results both teams have had. There's been a lot of feasting on bad teams from both North Texas and Louisiana Tech this season, so don't look for either offense to put up the kind of numbers you're used to seeing here. North Texas has gone Over in five straight while La Tech has gone Over in three straight. The results of those streaks is the highest O/U line either has seen all year. Take the Under. 

North Texas scored 52 pts last week as QB Mason Fine threw for a career-high 7 TD passes. But that was against UTEP. The Mean Green offense has largely been disappointing in 2019. Some of that is due to injuries. But they are averaging just 27.2 PPG on the road as well. Take away UTEP, UTSA and Abilene Christian (FCS) and UNT has scored more than 33 in only one game. While I won't go so far as to say the Louisiana Tech defense is "good," they are allowing just 24.0 PPG this year. This will be just the second time all season that a total for a North Texas game is above 60 points. 

Louisiana Tech is off a bye. The Bulldogs are the only team w/o loss in Conference USA play as they are 4-0 and lead the West Division. Similar to North Texas, there's been only one La Tech game w/ an O/U line higher than 60 pts. The offensive numbers out of Ruston are impressive, but the Bulldogs have played an incredibly weak schedule so far. The road team is 2-0 the L2 years in this C-USA rivalry w/ the games decided by a total of three points. Neither game saw more 56 total points scored. I expect another competitive game here w/ some surprising defense being played. 8* Under North Texas/La Tech

8* Over South Alabama/Texas State (3:00 ET): It's been awhile since a game involving South Alabama went Over the total. In fact, it's happened just once all year and that was on September 7th vs. a FCS opponent (Jackson State). The Jaguars scored 37 points that day in an easy win. They have not won since and have scored just 59 points in six games! But those of you who follow my O/U plays know that this is the time where I love to "go contrarian." That's going to be a theme for this 3-pack of totals, by the way. In a game w/ a very low number, take the Over.

Speaking of things that haven't happened in a while, how about Texas State covering a game? The Bobcats are 0-5-2 ATS in lined games this year. They are 2-6 SU overall and have been held to 17 pts or less in all six losses. One of their wins was against a FCS school, Nicholls State (won 24-3). The only other win was a high-scoring affair vs. Georgia State, which ended up as a 37-34 final thanks to triple overtime. Considering the dearth of scoring from both sides, I can't say I'm surprised that the number is so low. But this will be the lowest O/U line for any game this season for either team and by a pretty wide margin. 

The previous low total for Texas St is 48 points. All other games had a total of 55 pts or higher. For South Alabama, most of their totals have been 50 pts or higher as well. It's telling that Texas State's two highest scoring efforts of the year came when they were favored. They are about a TD favorite this week and the home team has captured all four meetings between these schools. All four of those games saw at least 44 total pts scored. Last year was a 41-31 USA win in Mobile. I know Texas State has injuries at QB/RB, but the backup QB (Tyler Vitt) at least now has a start under his belt. With this being a matchup of two of the worst teams in the country, there is the potential for a shootout. Neither defense can stop the run as they give up 222 and 226 yards per game respectively. 8* Over South Alabama/Texas State

10* Over Vanderbilt/Florida (12:00 ET): This SEC East rivalry is about as one-sided as it gets. Vandy thought they had the Gators "dead to rights" last year, up 21-3 in the 2nd quarter. But UF would go onto score the next 24 pts en route to a 37-27 win, their 27th in the last 28 meetings. Last year, the Gators were off a big win over LSU. This year, they come in off a loss to Georgia. Despite having two losses already (other to LSU), the Gators were still ranked #10 in the first CFP rankings. They clearly have a decided edge this week over the struggling Commodores. But I'm not about to lay this big number. I will however take the Over. 

Things have not been pretty w/ this Vanderbilt offense, nor have the results at the betting window. The Commodores are 1-6 ATS, the lone cover coming in an upset of Missouri a few weeks back. Last week saw them get beat 24-7 by South Carolina, the fifth straight game for the Commies to stay Under. But there's a big change this week and it's at QB. Riley Neal was knocked out of last week's game w/ a concussion. So Deuce Wallace, who has appeared in six games in a relief role, will make his first career start this week. While it seems like a tough spot, the Florida defense has held only FBS opponent below 20 points. 

Wallace's ability as a runner will add a different dimension to the Vandy offense by HC Mason's own admission. He also gets senior WR Kalija Lipscomb (missed LW vs. South Carolina) back from injury. The Florida defense is w/o two starting linebackers. On the other side, Florida could not run the ball at all against Georgia last week. The result was their lowest scoring effort of the year. But the Gators shouldn't have too much trouble moving the ball on a Vandy defense that is giving up almost 500 YPG on the road, not to mention also 32.4 PPG. Florida averages over 35 PPG here in "The Swamp." With the 5-game Under streak, this is the lowest O/U line for any Vandy game this year. Time for an Over. 10* Over Vanderbilt/Florida

10* Over Chargers/Raiders (8:25 ET): How about them Chargers? We had them Sunday as they delivered an outright win over the Packers, 26-11 as 3.5-point dogs. Few, if any, gave the Lightning Bolts a real chance heading into that one. But I saw a slightly overrated Green Bay team ripe to be upset. Los Angeles played arguably its best game of the season, outgaining the Packers 442-184 for the game and 6.5 to 3.8 on a per play basis. While it might seem strange to read, look for the Chargers' defense to be tested more this week by the Raiders than it was by the Packers. LA is 7-1 Under its last 8 games, but take the Over on this one. 

Oakland also got its 4th win of the season on Sunday. The Silver and Black beat the Lions 31-24 as a three-point favorite, the first time all year that the Raiders were chalk. They've now gone Over in 5 of the last 6 games. The past five weeks have seen the Raiders score 24 pts or more in every game. That's a number the Chargers haven't allowed more than except one time all year (allowed 27 to the Texans). So something will clearly have to give in this AFC West tilt. Recent history may not be on our side here as the L5 meetings have all gone Under. But w/ the Chargers offense looking improved last week and the Raiders also matching their season high in pts scored in a game, this one should break the trend.

The Chargers' defense was one of the primary reasons I called for the upset LW vs. GB. They are allowing just 18.7 PPG for the year, including 15.5 on the road. But they've also not exactly faced a tremendous slate of opposing QB's and offenses. Derek Carr has averaged nearly 300 yards passing the past three games. The Raiders also ran for 171 yards against the Lions, the 4th time in the last 5 wks they went for 150+ on the ground. But a problem the team still has is a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in most significant statistical categories. Last week, the Lions gained an amazing 7.5 yards per play! 10* Over Chargers/Raiders 

8* Over Ball State/Western Michigan (8:00 ET): This is probably a good time to reiterate something I've written previously. The MAC is having a down year. Being that it's November, we're about to get a ton of "weekday MACtion," so for those of you reading me for the first time, it helps to understand my current view of the Conference. Two teams looking to stake their claim as the best in the Western Division meet Tuesday night in Kalamazoo as Western Michigan hosts Ball State. Both teams have been going Under a lot recently (WMU 5 straight times), but they are each capable of putting plenty of points on the board too. Using a strategy that's worked well the last couple weeks, I'm going Over on this particular College Football matchup. 

The strategy I've been using w/ CFB totals is fairly straightforward. If a team has gone Over or Under a number of times in a row, go the other way. I realize there's a certain "fallacy" in that mentality, but I like to stick w/ what works. In this case, Western Michigan has gone Under five straight times. To say the Broncos play much better defense here at home would be a mild understatement. They go from giving up 42.0 PPG on the road to just 12.8 at home! But for our purposes, that's "offset" by the fact their scoring rises at home to 44.6 PPG from 25.3 on the road. WMU is simply a much better football team at home. They are 5-0 SU (4-0-1 ATS) at Waldo Stadium and 0-4 SU/ATS on the road! 

So the Over is really on Ball State to score more than previous visitors to Kalamazoo. I think they are capable. After all, the Cardinals are averaging 33.0 PPG. Unfortunately, the defense could be in trouble. BSU was gashed for over 300 yds rushing two weeks ago by Ohio. Western Michigan ran for almost 400 yards in a 49-10 win over Bowling Green that same day. A big key for the Western Michigan offense in this stretch run is that John Wassink is healthy. The senior QB has missed all of November the L2 years due to injuries. Something to keep in mind w/ the WMU defensive numbers at home is that they haven't exactly faced a strong slate of opponents. Ball State is as good as any team that's visited here in 2019 and should be able to hang. 8* Over Ball State/Western Michigan

10* Over Browns/Broncos (4:25 ET): We're long ways from the 1987 & '88 AFC Championship Games that these teams faced off in. In 2019, both are struggling to remain relevant, even in a weaker than usual AFC. For Cleveland, this is terribly disappointing as they had high expectations (believe it or not) coming into the season. Those expectations seem foolish in retrospect, but they were there. As for Denver, not a ton was expected in Vic Fangio's 1st year, but I thought they'd improve on LY's 6-10 SU record. At 2-6 right now, that doesn't seem very likely. Brandon Allen will make his first NFL start at QB this week, replacing the injured Joe Flacco. Not like the offense was doing much w/ Flacco in there though, so I would be careful about calling this a downgrade. 

Calling for an Over here might seem like I'm being a contrarian. After all, Denver's last four games have all stayed Under. So have 19 of their last 24 games. Replacing Tim Tebow was easy (Peyton Manning!) for John Elway, but Elway hasn't come close to finding anything close to a successor for Manning. Flacco wasn't the answer and Allen probably won't be either. But an Over would seem to be in the works sooner rather than later as this stretch of low-scoring games can't be sustained. By the way, the Broncos have lost THREE games in the final minute this year, so their record could be a whole lot better right now. Cleveland's defense has allowed 20+ points in all but one game this season. 

I also think this is where the struggling Browns' offense gets on track. Last week they were nearly identical to the Patriots in total yards, running a fewer amount of plays. Three turnovers, all on successive possessions, killed them. That was after blowing a lead at home to Seattle the previous week. While the 2-5 SU record is disappointing in Cleveland right now, the Browns have faced a pretty tough schedule. The rest of the way things get progressively easier as they'll be favored in at least the next four games. Cleveland's offense is gaining 6.2 yards per play this season and RB Nick Chubb has had one 37+ yard rush in four straight games. Denver's defense has played admirably, but that may not last as they are set to face some better offenses (including this one) in what is a lost season. 10* Over Browns/Broncos

8* Over Redskins/Bills (1:00 ET): Buffalo's defense, which held Tom Brady and New England to just 16 pts and 224 total yards, has taken a bit of a hit the past two weeks. First it was winless Miami hanging 21 points on them in a surprisingly close game. Last week, the bubble finally burst as the Eagles came in and ran wild, for 218 yds over land, en route to winning 31-13. Previous to those last two efforts, the Bills had not allowed more than 17 points to any opponent and all five games stayed Under. While this week's opponent (Washington) is not a particularly strong outfit, the last 2 weeks have at least shown us the Bills' defense is far from invincible. Take the Over here. 

Washington started the year w/ three straight Overs, but the Under has since gone 5-0. The biggest problem is obviously an offense which is averaging 12.4 PPG, third fewest in the league right now. Those L5 games have truly been dismal efforts when the Redskins have the football as they've scored a grand total of 36, almost half of those coming in the team's lone win, which was over Miami. Since that win, the offense has not scored a single TD. QB Case Keenum is injured, so now rookie Dwayne Haskins will make his first career start. While Haskins has looked far from great in limited appearances, he does represent somewhat of a "Wild Card" element to this week's game. 

Something I do fully anticipate in this game is the Redskins' defense regressing. After giving up 30+ pts in four of the first five games, they've allowed less than 15 PPG the L3 and just three TD's. That sort of sounds impressive, especially when you consider they've faced both the 49ers and Vikings. But that 49ers' game was decimated by rain and the Vikings, despite scoring only 19 points, gained 434 yards on 6.5 per play. There were a total of five 10+ play drives that ended in FG's in that Vikings game. Miami scoring 16 pts on the Redskins was actually above their season average. I expect Buffalo's offense to have a big game here and there's hope for Washington's too as both teams can run the ball well against defenses that appear vulnerable. The Over is still 20-8 the Bills' last 28 home games and this is a low number. 8* Over Redskins/Bills

8* Over BYU/Utah State (10:00 ET): These two teams have each been featured in our previous two LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE selections. Two weeks ago, BYU hosted Boise State. I took the Cougars plus the points (+7) and they won outright, handing Boise its first loss of the year. Late last Saturday night, I decided to lay the short number w/ Air Force at home. They waxed Utah State 31-7. Now we've got USU hosting BYU. The key here is that the Aggies are at home where they are averaging 44.0 PPG, which is well up from their paltry average on the road. Consider the Aggies have scored just 36 points TOTAL their L3 road games. Go w/ the Over here in the annual battle for the "Old Wagon Wheel." 

BYU got last week off to celebrate their upset of Boise State. That was a much needed win as the Cougs entered that game on a three-game losing streak, both SU and ATS. Believe it or not, BYU has been favored only twice this year as they've taken on a pretty murderous schedule. While they've pulled three outright upsets (Boise St, USC, Tennessee), they lost both games they were favored outright! While ATS results may be wildly inconsistent, there at least has been a real consistency to the amount of total pts scored in BYU games this season. There's been no fewer than 42 (opener vs. Utah) and no more than 64 (loss to Washington). The other five games have all fallen between 49 and 57 total pts scored. 

Utah State, on the other hand, has had wildly different outcomes depending whether they are at home or on the road. Last week's disastrous effort can be chalked up to "one of those days" in my opinion. Remember what I'd written about in the analysis. The Aggies are last in the country in time of possession. Last week, Air Force had the ball for over 45 minutes! That led to the USU defense tiring (which is what I said would happen) and they ended up allowing 448 yds rushing! But this is a totally different team in Logan, especially the offense. You won't see all the three-and-outs you saw last week as the Aggies are going to look to "push tempo." The last two years have seen them score 40+ on the BYU defense. The L5 USU games have all gone Under. Time for an Over. 8* Over BYU/Utah State

10* Under SMU/Memphis (7:30 ET): This is a real "contrarian" type play with two high-scoring teams meeting in the Liberty Bowl Saturday night. A case could be made that this is the most significant game of the weekend as the result should go a long way in determining who is the "Group of 5" representative in the New Year's Six Bowl Games. SMU is undefeated (8-0), but is the underdog here and probably should be seeing as Memphis (7-1) is 17-2 SU its L19 home games w/ both losses coming by just a single point! But we want no part of laying this number now that it's been bet up. The total is predictably very high and that's where the true value is. Take the Under.

SMU had a real "close call" last Thursday against Houston, winning 34-31 as double digit favorite. They were outgained 510-385 and needed a defensive stop on the final drive to preserve the victory. That wasn't the first "close call" the Mustangs have had this season. Half of their wins have been by six points or fewer, all four coming against teams that aren't going to end up in the Top 25. Last week was a season-low in points and yards for the SMU offense. It was also the first time this season that one of their games stayed Under the total. As a reminder, I had both Houston and the Under in that matchup. So I feel I've got a real "feel" for this team right now.

Now Memphis had its own close call last week, holding on to beat Tulsa 42-41 as the Golden Hurricane missed a 29-yard FG as time expired. Before you go dismissing the Tigers' defensive effort in that game (allowed 584 yards), note that they were on the field for 101 snaps! It was also a road game. Here at the Liberty Bowl, the Tigers are allowing only 18.5 PPG. They held Ole Miss, an SEC team, to just 10 pts in the season opener here. Now Memphis' last five games have all gone Over. But that was against a weaker slate of opponents than they'll face Saturday night. The Memphis streak of Overs, combined w/ SMU's O/U record have conspired to give us one of the higher O/U lines of this NCAAF season. It's not easy going Over a total this high. 10* Under SMU/Memphis

8* Over Utah/Washington (4:00 ET): Prior to two weeks ago, Washington had not been a home dog since 2015, which was Chris Petersen's first year here in Seattle. Now it's happened two games in a row! The Huskies lost to Oregon despite leading most of the way and that was their third loss of the season. Now they host a Utah team that could very well end up playing Oregon for the Pac 12 Championship. I'm a little "gun-shy" about playing UW in this spot as Utah is the better team and comes in w/ a severe case of double revenge (lost twice to the Huskies last season). But fortunately the total seems to be providing some REAL value. Take the Over. 

It's not often that the Under would be considered a "public" play, but it is here w/ a Utah team that's gone Under in six straight while holding its last three opponents to 10 points total. Then you have the fact that the two games vs. Washington last season had final scores of 21-7 and 10-3. But the key here is that Washington just faced an Oregon defense that had a similar statistical profile to Utah and they were able to hang 31 points on them while gaining over 400 yards. For the season, Washington averages 35.7 PPG. They are probably the best offensive team Utah has faced so far in 2019. 

Utah is off its first shutout win as a Pac 12 member as they beat Cal 35-0 last week, holding the Bears to 83 total yards! The week previous saw them down Arizona State 21-3 while allowing just 136 total yards. Those are some really impressive numbers, but both games took place in Salt Lake City. Also, it's not as if the Utes' offense can't put some points on the board. They are averaging 33.1 PPG. Three of the six games that have stayed Under for Utah would have gone Over this particular O/U line. The Washington defense they'll face on Saturday is not as strong as they one they saw twice last year. The Huskies gave up only 16.4 PPG LY. With only two starters back from that group, they are allowing 28.3 the L3 games. 8* Over Utah/Washington

10* Under Ga Southern/Appalachian State (8:00 ET): Appalachian State enters as one of nine unbeaten teams still remaining in College Football, but don't think for a second that the Mountaineers will be taking Georgia Southern very lightly. That's because LY the Eagles beat a ranked ASU squad (#25) 34-14 in Statesboro. Now that was a much better Ga Southern team (finished 10-3 SU) and the game was at home. But I still wouldn't expect any kind of defensive letdown from the favorite this week. With the weather forecast calling for heavy rain, Under is the call here. Both teams have run-oriented offenses and stout defenses. 

Though all seven games have ended in victory, the last three for Appalachian State have gone a lot differently than the previous three. They've allowed just 17 points total the L3 wks w/ the Under going 3-0. The Mountaineers' defense has allowed 7 pts or less four times this season. Last week's 30-3 win over South Alabama saw them allow just 139 total yards. The week before saw them allow just 213 in a 52-7 win over La Monroe. Don't look for ASU to score a ton this week, however. Not only will weather be a factor, but so will a Georgia Southern defense that has allowed fewer than 275 yards in each of its last three games. Last week, the Eagles held New Mexico State to 7 points in their most complete effort to date.

These schools were conference rivals in the FCS days (played in the SoCon), so they've met every year going back to '93 (33 times total). The last five have come at the FBS level and only one of them has gone Over. That Over was last year, by a single point. App State lost starting QB Zac Thomas early in game and finished w/ only 288 yards and five turnovers. While they figure to gain more yards Thursday, the reduction in turnovers figures to be more significant. Those 5 TO's last year were converted into 24 pts by Ga Southern, including three touchdowns. While both offenses are effective at running the ball (both top 15 nationally in rush YPG), both defenses are also adept at stopping it. ASU may also be "saving" some of its trickier plays for next week's massive game at South Carolina. 10* Under Ga Southern/Appalachian State

10* Over Panthers/49ers (4:05 ET): By virtually every objective measure, San Francisco is the 2nd best team in the league right now.  Few, if any, saw this coming. But I can say that we at least saw this as the team most likely to improve its record in 2019. When it came to injuries, turnovers and just plain bad luck, the 49ers were hit pretty hard in 2018. But there's no "smoke and mirrors" when it comes to this 6-0 SU record as the Niners are the only team besides the Patriots w/o a loss and they've got the second best point differential as well. Their future outlook seems promising as well. They'll be favored in each of the next five games unless something major changes. 

This week's opponent is the Carolina Panthers, who are off a bye. The week before the bye, Carolina was in London, beating division rival Tampa Bay 37-26 (as 2-pt favorites) thanks in large part to SEVEN Bucs' turnovers. Quite frankly, the Panthers were a little fortunate to win/cover in that they were outgained 407-268. But in this league, you're going to win 99.9% of the time when the opponent turns it over 7 times. Of course, the story we need to talk about right now w/ Carolina is QB Kyle Allen. In three of the four games Allen has started, the Panthers have scored 34+ points. Allen isn't better than Cam Newton, but he is clearly better than an INJURED Newton.

The 49ers have largely done it w/ defense, giving up just 223.5 yards and 10.7 points per game. Both numbers rank 2nd in the league, trailing only the Patriots. The Niners have the league's top pass defense, so it will be interesting to see if Allen's stretch of good play halts here. Regardless, you can look for SF to pile up some points. Carolina's defense isn't that great and has given up an average of more than 450 yards the L2 games. Their secondary was shredded by both Gardner Minshew and Jameis Winston, so Jimmy Garoppolo should be in line for a strong stat line this week. The Niners offense is averaging 441 yards at 6.3 YPP at home so far. Certainly conditions will be a lot nicer here compared to last week in D.C. (9-0 shutout of the Redskins). 10* Over Panthers/49ers

10* Under Duke/North Carolina (4:00 ET): This one may not mean as much as it does on the basketball court, but it's still a rivalry game where the two teams know each other well. Obviously, Mack Brown is in his first year back at Chapel Hill, but the teams play every year. It's a rivalry that has gone Duke's way each of the last three seasons w/ them winning by 1, 10 and 7 points. Certainly Brown is going to put an impetus on ending that particular losing streak. Speaking of streaks, Duke's last six games have all gone Over the total. Not this one though. They managed only 14 points in a road loss to Virginia last week while UNC's 43-41 final score (loss) to Va Tech last week is misleading in the sense that the game went to SIX overtimes! Take the Under. 

The UNC-Va Tech game was tied 31-31 at the end of regulation last week. That's still a high-scoring game obviously, but Virginia Tech's defense is not good. Duke's defense may have turned in a season-worst effort last week in terms of points allowed (48) to Virginia, but note that came on just over 300 total yards allowed. Virginia returned a kickoff for a TD plus they had FIVE scoring drives of 40 yards or less. The Blue Devils definitely didn't help themselves by turning the ball over five times. Don't look for North Carolina to be gifted those same opportunities this week. Duke has has been bitten by the turnover bug twice now in 2019. But they've also had three games w/o a TO. Last week was just the second time in the L6 games that Duke allowed more than 23 pts. 

At the same time, Duke's offense only gained 250 total yards last week and one of their two touchdowns came in "garbage time." The L3 games have seen them barely average 300 YPG. Of course, a dropoff offensively was to be expected after losing a QB that was a 1st round draft choice by the NFL (Daniel Jones). But four games this year w/ less than 180 yards passing has to be a more severe decline than was expected. North Carolina's two highest scoring games of the season have come over the L2 weeks, but again there was the 6OT game last week and the other was against rebuilding Georgia Tech. QB Sam Howell threw for 348+ yards in the two games, but here he'll be facing a Duke defense that has has allowed more than 206 yds through their only one time since facing Alabama in the season opener. 10* Under Duke/North Carolina 

10* Over USC/Colorado (9:00 ET): These Pac 12 South rivals certainly appear to be trending in different directions. USC might only be 4-3, but we consider them to still be one of best 25 teams in America. They are coming off perhaps their finest effort of the season, a 41-14 beatdown of Arizona last weekend at the Coliseum. Meanwhile, the trajectory for Colorado is hardly ideal. The Buffaloes have lost three straight, the last two being absolute blowouts. They've allowed 30+ pts in every game this season. They are also 0-13 all-time vs. Southern Cal w/ eight of those losses coming in the L8 years as conference opponents. The Buffs should give up plenty of points again this week. But they should score plenty as well. Take the Over.

Now one thing working in Colorado's favor here is USC's winless road record. The Trojans are 0-3 away from the Coliseum this year and have given up at least 28 points in all three losses. Don't be surprised if USC notches its first road win of the season Friday night in Boulder, but they'll give up plenty of points while doing so. Colorado QB Steven Montez has not played particularly well the L2 games, but those were on the road. Despite allowing only 14 pts last week to Arizona, it's not as if the USC defense was that stout. They still gave up almost 400 yds and 22 first downs. They should feel fortunate that Arizona missed a pair of field goals, turned it over on downs inside the red zone and had three turnovers. The Over is 5-0 after the L5 times USC has allowed 20 pts or fewer. 

The bad news for Colorado is that their defense has been atrocious for 1st year HC Mel Tucker. The L3 games alone have seen them allow a total of 121 points. So Southern Cal should have little trouble moving the ball and scoring in this game. This is an offense averaging 431.6 YPG and has Kedon Slovis back at QB. Colorado is allowing over 500 YPG the L3 weeks at 7.2 yards per play. Only 13 teams in the country are giving up more yards per pass attempt for the year. USC's last five games may have all gone Under, but they've finally found an opponent conducive for an Over. In fact, this probably the weakest defense they've faced in 2019. Figuring Colorado's offense should improve at home, we've got ourselves a likely shootout Friday night in Boulder. 10* Over USC/Colorado

10* Under Redskins/Vikings (8:20 ET): We said it last week and will reiterate it again here. Minnesota is one of the better teams in the league. Mike Zimmer's team has outgained its opponents by 1.3 yards on a per play basis and has the third best scoring differential in the league. They've been a dominant home team, winning all three games here by double digits, and have scored a total of 80 points the L2 weeks. Kirk Cousins and the offense figures to have its way Thursday night against a Washington defense that has been one of the worst in the league so far this year. 

But the Redskins' offense certainly doesn't figure to score many points this week. They certainly haven't scored many this year. Only the Jets and Dolphins have scored less this year and over the last four weeks, the Skins have scored a grand total of 27 points. That includes 17 in their lone win of the season, which was against Miami. The other three games they failed to scored more than 7. Last week in the rain, they couldn't manage any points in a shutout loss to the 49ers. With a coaching change having already taken place, things are looking rather grim in the Nation's capital right now. 

Washington's last four games have gone Under and the last three didn't have totals any higher than this one. While two of those last three games came against New England and San Francisco, the two top defensive teams in the league right now, the Skins could also manage only a field goal against a Giants' defense that is not very good. The Vikings defense isn't too far behind those of the Patriots and 49ers, statistically. But also look for the Vikings' offense to struggle a bit more than usual this week as WR Adam Theilen is out w/ a hamstring injury. With Theilen out, Stefon Diggs can't possibly match his production from the last two games where he's had 14 catches for 300+ yards. The last six meetings between the teams have all gone Over. Not this one. 10* Under Redskins/Vikings

10* Under SMU/Houston (7:30 ET): We lost two more unbeaten teams last week (Wisconsin, Boise State), dropping the number left nationally to 10. Among those 10 teams, SMU has to be considered one of the more surprising on the list. The Ponies have reached a level that the program has not seen since pre-"Death Penalty." Not only are they 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS, but they are also the only team in the country to have gone Over in every game. An offense led by Texas transfer Shane Buechele is averaging 44.3 PPG, which is tied for 5th most in the country. However, don't be surprised if this Thursday game turns out to be one of SMU's lower scoring efforts of the year. Take the Under. 

Houston's season couldn't be more different than that of SMU. In his first year on the job, HC Dana Holgorsen has suffered some serious attrition w/ both QB D'Eriq King and WR Keith Corbin electing to redshirt. Even King's replacement, Clayton Tune, has been out w/ an injury. This has obviously had a serious impact on the Cougars' offense, which could only manage 24 pts last week in a win over sorry UConn. That was w/ Holgorsen's son starting at QB. Tune is expected back, which will be a boost. But don't go expecting Houston to score as much as they were back when King was under center. Before beating UConn, they could only manage 23 pts in a loss to Cincinnati. The Cougars' last four games have all seen totals lower than this one and the Over is 3-1. But the first three games all had higher O/U lines and the Under was 3-0. 

SMU has scored 40+ in every game this year since a 37-30 win over Arkansas State in Week 1 where they were actually an underdog. I already mentioned how the Over is 7-0 in their games this season. But only one, a 49-27 win over North Texas, had a higher O/U line. The Mustangs defense should do a fairly decent job in this one as we don't think the absences of King and Corbin on the other side have been properly reflected when it comes to the total. The Under is 14-5 in UH's L19 games off an ATS loss. The Under is also 5-1 the L6 meetings here in Houston. 10* Under SMU/Houston

10* Over Patriots/Jets (8:15 ET): The last time these AFC East rivals met was Week 4 and the Jets were starting a practice squad QB (Luke Falk) that isn’t even with the team anymore. Yet they managed to not only cover (were huge 3 TD underdogs), but the game went Over (barely) as well. We had the Jets and Over in that game and while the key to cashing both were TWO non-offensive scores from the Jets, it is curious that the O/U line isn’t higher for Monday night’s rematch. With Sam Darnold back at QB, the Jets are much more formidable on offense than they were with Falk. Take the Over.

We came into the season with a fairly optimistic view of the Jets. That quickly dissipated due to Darnold being sidelined with mono. But we saw what the team is capable of last week as they upset the Cowboys 24-22 as 7-point home underdogs. In his return, Darnold threw for 338 yards. Look for RB Le’Veon Bell to start being more productive as well now that Darnold is back. Again, unlike the last time they faced the Patriots, the Jets will score offensive touchdowns here. The fact that the O/U isn’t any higher for Darnold starting instead of Falk (who was TERRIBLE) is definitely perplexing to us. 

New England’s defense has been downright tremendous so far, but it should be noted that this start has come at the expense of some pretty bad teams. Also, they have been historically great on third down, nearly to the point of unsustainability. Tom Brady and the offense have scored at least 30 pts in every game but one (against a very good Bills defense), which is a trend that we can see continue here. They didn’t need to do much the last time they faced the Jets. This game should go Over much more easily as both offenses are now at full strength. The Patriots will do the heavy lifting while the Jets will score enough to “help out.” 10* Over Patriots/Jets

10* Over Chargers/Titans (4:05 ET): Two teams scrambling for a win meet in Nashville w/ the 2-4 Chargers taking on the 2-4 Titans. Both teams have lost four of five, including two straight, since an Opening Week win. In the case of the Chargers, the decline from last year can be pinned on injuries. In the Titans’ case, there’s now some real uncertainty about Marcus Mariota as the franchise QB. In fact, Ryan Tannehill will start this game. Tennessee games, on average, have been the lowest scoring in the league at just 31.6 PPG. The last five have all gone Under. The Chargers’ last four games have all gone Under. But w/ a low total, we think this one will be different. Take the Over. 

The Titans were shutout last week (16-0 by Denver) and have just ONE offensive TD in the L10 quarters. So with a top five scoring defense, this hardly seems like an ideal candidate for an Over. But they have made a QB change as HC Mike Vrabel is looking for the dreaded “spark.” We believe Tennessee is “due” for such a spark. Also, the Over is 41-19-3 the Titans’ L63 home games vs. a team w/ a losing road record.

The Chargers w/ Philip Rivers are even more overdue for an offensive resurgence. They are tied for the league lead w/ four red zone turnovers. That means they’re missing out on potential points. They did gain nearly 350 yds last week vs. Pittsburgh, but had only 17 points. While both defenses rank high in the scoring department, they do give a fair number of yards and big plays. Los Angeles now has RB Melvin Gordon back in the fold and it’s only a matter of time before he gets going. With two teams at 5-0 Under their L5 games respectively, this just “feels” like we’re in line for the game to sneak Over a high total.  10* Over Chargers/Titans

8* Over Dolphins/Bills (1:00 ET): At the start of the year, who would have thought Buffalo would be laying more than two touchdowns in any game? Granted, we knew the Dolphins would be bad. But they’ve turned out to be HISTORICALLY bad, starting 0-5 while being outscored by 138 points. Last week was probably their “best” chance at winning a game this year as they were at home and facing Washington. Down 17-16, HC Brian Flores elected to go for a two-point conversion and the win. The ‘Fins failed to convert obviously and remain one of two winless teams in the league.

Normally, we would be wondering just how in the world Miami is going to score points in this game. But we admire Flores’ decision to turn to Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. Fitzpatrick is the one who engineered the near comeback LW vs. Washington. A Dolphins’ offense that has managed only 42 points for the YEAR stands to score more with FitzMagic in the game as opposed to Josh Rosen. Things could also conceivably get WORSE with Fitzpatrick under center as he’s so high variance. But if he plays poorly, that likely means lots of interceptions, which will set up Buffalo to score more. No matter how Fitzpatrick plays, we like this game to go Over.

The Bills are 4-1 and off their bye. They won’t be overtaking the Patriots in the AFC East, but Buffalo is in a great position for a playoff run. They are the AFC’s only one-loss team (lost to the unbeaten Patriots). While the strength of this team is the defense, don’t be surprised to see the offense score a season-high in points this week. Every Miami opponent besides Washington has scored at least 30 pts on them.  The Bills offense runs the ball pretty well, so they’ll still move the ball when they’re (likely) up big in the 2nd half. The Dolphins have the worst run defense in the NFL. Half of Bills’ QB Josh Allen’s TD passes last year came against Miami! 8* Over Dolphins/Bills

10* Over Marshall/Fla Atlantic (6:30 ET): FAU started the season w/ a couple of treacherous games against Ohio State and Central Florida. They obviously lost both, but what's interesting there is they actually stayed closer on the road against the Buckeyes (lost by 24) than they did at home vs. UCF (lost by 34). The Owls' game w/ Ohio St actually is tied for the Buckeyes' slimmest margin of victory all season. Since opening 0-2, FAU has battled back w/ four consecutive wins, one of them being our #1 NCAAF Play for September, a 45-27 win at Charlotte where they were just a 1-pt favorite. That was the Owls' third straight game scoring 40+ points, but last week was a much more low-scoring affair w/ Middle Tennessee as they "only" won 28-13. Look for Lane's crew to get back on track offensively here. Take the Over. 

Marshall is coming off a 31-17 win over Old Dominion. That was one of the higher scoring efforts of the year from the Thundering Herd, who have now topped 30 pts in a game three times, all in Huntington. If one were to simply look at the final score from their last road game (at Middle Tennessee), one might reasonably conclude that the offense "forgot to show up" in Murfreesboro. However, the Herd actually gained 578 yards total offense in that game, only to be undone by four costly turnovers. Last week, the offense rolled up 444 more yards, which was the 4th time in 6 games they've hit that threshold in 2019. Similarly, Doc Holliday's defense has had its ups and downs. They held ODU to just 206 yds last week, but before that had been torched for 400+ yds by every other FBS opponent on the schedule.

Even with the O/U line already being bet up a bit, by kickoff, this still figures to be the lowest for any Florida Atlantic game this year against a FBS team. Before LW's game vs. MTSU, every FAU game had seen a minimum of 59 pts scored. QB Chris Robison had thrown for 300+ yards in four straight games before facing MTSU. But fortunately he was bailed out by a rushing attack that went for 200+ yards for a second straight week. Marshall's PPG average is misleading when you consider they are actually 4th in C-USA in total offense. Similarly, the FAU defense have been "bend but don't break" as they are 12th in the 14-team conference in yards allowed. We look for somewhat of a shootout Friday night in Boca Raton. 10* Over Marshall/Florida Atlantic