10* Over South Alabama/Troy (8:00 ET): South Alabama has not done much scoring in recent weeks. They've managed a total of only 43 points the L4 games, all of which have stayed Under. The Jaguars have hung tough in losses to the likes of Nebraska (35-21), LA Monroe (30-17) and Ga Southern (20-17), covering the spread in all those games. But still, their only win was against a FCS team (37-14 over Jackson State). The last time we saw USA, it was a play for us (+10) vs. Ga Southern. They covered the entire game before eventually losing in double overtime. This Wednesday matchup w/ Troy should at least lead to an increase in scoring, taking into account Troy's full body of work. Take the Over.

Troy's last two games have both been losses and they've given up 92 points in them. Before we go dismissing last week's effort as a product of facing Missouri (allowed 42 points), realize that they allowed 50 the previous week to Arkansas State and that was here at home. There was another game where they allowed 47 (to Southern Miss). If you take out games against Campbell (FCS) and Akron (worst team in FBS?), then the Trojans' defense has given up an average of 46.3 points and 542 yards per game. Missouri actually scored and gained less than both Southern Miss and Arkansas State did. On the bright side, Troy did score at least 35 points in every game before facing Mizzou. They hit 485 total yards each of those first four games. 

So it's pretty reasonable to expect Troy to go back to scoring a ton of points this week now that they're not up against a SEC defense. South Alabama's defense is allowing 400 YPG and that number goes way up if you take out the first two games. They've allowed 30+ pts in four of their six games. Something about that Troy-Missouri game that needs to noted is that Troy allowed all 42 pts in the first half! Mizzou QB Kelly Bryant got hurt on the final throw of the 1H and the Tigers did nothing offensively (didn't have to) coming out of the break. So there is hope for the struggling USA offense in this one. Troy also saw its starting QB go down in the Missouri game, but the backup (if needed here) has appeared in three games this year, so he's game-tested. 10* OVER South Alabama/Troy

10* Over Colorado/Oregon (10:00 ET): Oregon (#13) has a large edge on the defensive side of the ball over Colorado. The Ducks are allowing just 9.8 PPG while the Buffaloes are giving up 31.6 PPG and that right there explains why the home team is such a prohibitive favorite Friday night in Autzen. But on the offensive side of the ball, the teams are actually pretty even. Colorado averages 34.6 PPG, slightly ahead of Oregon's 34.2. Truthfully, more was expected from this Ducks offense w/ 10 starters back including QB Justin Herbert. They've only topped 21 pts twice, but here they should have their way w/ a suspect Colorado defense. We're on the Over in this one. 

Coming off a bye, Oregon had a bit of a disappointing effort last week against Cal. They still won mind you, but only 17-7 as 21-point favorites here at home. Three first half turnovers really hurt as the Ducks actually went into halftime w/ 0 points on the scoreboard. That won't happen again here. Cal has one of the better defenses in the Pac 12, if not the country. The week before Oregon faced another tough defense in Stanford. Colorado has given up more points than every Pac 12 team besides UCLA this year. Herbert has thrown a TD pass in 33 consecutive games, the nation's longest active streak, and has 15 already this year. That's the best five-game stretch by ANY QB in Oregon history. 

A couple of injury-related tibits should benefit the Colorado offense in this one. One, they could get back WR Laviska Shenault Jr., who missed LW's 35-30 loss to Arizona. Even w/o him, the Buffs still gained over 500 yards. On the other side, Oregon's defense will be w/o DE Gus Cumberlander, whose season is over due to a knee injury. For Colorado QB Steven Montez, it's come full circle as his first career start came against Oregon back in 2016. Montez and the Buffs were 10-point underdogs in that game and pulled the outright upset. The final score was 41-38. This Colorado offense will arguably be the best the Oregon defense has faced all season. Both Herbert and Montez should have their respective offenses moving the ball regularly in this one. 10* Over Colorado/Oregon

10* Over Browns/49ers (8:15 ET): Fun fact: You would have to go back to the 1980's (or maybe even before that) to find the last time a Browns-49ers matchup went Over the total. Whenever it was, it certainly predates our records. Now, to be fair, these teams don't play very often (one time every four seasons). The fact that they're meeting in 2019 is cool because it's the first time in FOREVER that both teams have a sense of optimism. Cleveland is in off a 40-25 win over Baltimore last week while San Francisco is unbeaten and off its bye week. Back in Week 2, we told you that the 49ers were our pick for most improved team in the league this year (they went out and clobbered Cincinnati 41-17). Monday night, we like that rare Over to take place in a rare intriguing Browns-49ers matchup. 

The Browns' offense had not played particularly well the first three weeks of the season w/ it's "best" effort coming on a Monday night against the wounded Jets. But they still only scored 23 pts in that game. Last week though, Baker Mayfield and company tore through the Ravens defense to the tune of 40 points and 530 total yards. RB Nick Cubb ran wild for 165 yards, a total he probably won't be able to get to against a fairly stout 49ers' run defense. However, Mayfield could very well be in line for a big day here as the 49ers defense largely has NOT been tested through the air. The last two opposing QB's they faced were Andy Dalton & Mason Rudolph. Making matters more problematic is the Niners lost CB Ahkello Witherspoon to a foot injury in the win over the Steelers. Look for Odell Beckham Jr to have a big game as a result. 

After putting up 72 points in the first two games, the 49ers were held to "just" 24 in the win over the Steelers two weeks ago. But that number easily could have been a lot higher had it not been for several miscues in the red zone. Incredibly, the offense turned it over THREE times (all fumbles) inside the Steelers' 20-yard line. They finished the game w/ 436 yds total offense and thankfully still won despite the turnovers, but really they should have won by more. That came after putting up 41 points and 572 total yds on the Bengals. So both offenses are capable of 40+ pts and 500+ yards in a game. The Over has cashed 15 of the last 20 times SF has been coming off a bye. 10* Over Browns/49ers

10* Over Temple/East Carolina (8:00 ET): Saturday's 24-21 win over Old Dominion marked the fifth straight East Carolina game to stay Under the total this year. There are only three other teams in the country that are 4-0 Under, one of them being ODU. Not that Saturday's game didn't have its chances to go Over. It was 17-3 in the second quarter w/ ODU knocking on the doorstep. But the Monarchs fumbled at the goal line and the trajectory of the game really never recovered. It was 17-13 midway through the third quarter, but there were four consecutive punts after that, followed by 2 ODU interceptions w/ a missed ECU field goal in between. It really was a frustrating loss for us and anyone else who may have had the Over. 

Temple just grounded Georgia Tech, holding them to only 2 points on Saturday. So you may be of the opinion that the Owls are not the ideal opponent for East Carolina to snap it's Under streak. Temple has gone for just 22 PPG since opening the year w/ a 56-14 win over Canisius. But they did give up 38 in their lone road game, which doubles as their lone loss, at Buffalo two weeks ago (as two touchdown favorites). That was a huge letdown spot for the Owls as they were coming off their own upset, of previously red-hot Maryland (who has since been badly "exposed."). Also, you can run on this Owls' defense. The last three weeks have seen them surrender 500+ yards over land. 

Since becoming conference rivals, these teams have played every year. Not surprisingly, Temple has won all five meetings. They've held East Carolina to 14 points or less every time. But we see the Pirates easily topping that number Thursday. While the only two prior home games this year were against FCS opponents, the offensive numbers for ECU look a lot better in Greenville (6.4 yards per play). While we did note that this Pirates' defense is seemingly much improved this year, they did give up 49 pts to Temple LY. They've also already given up 34 to NC State and 42 to Navy this year. The oddsmakers are being kind w/ this number (at least from where we sit) and the Over is 4-1 in Temple's last five road contests. 10* Over Temple/East Carolina

10* Under Chiefs/Lions (1:00 ET): Kansas City's offense doesn't look like it's missed a beat in year two with Patrick Mahomes as QB. They've scored at least 26 points in every game Mahomes has started in his career. So an Under call might seem a bit risky, but remember we cashed one two weeks ago when they visited Oakland. That game saw Mahomes throw 4 TD passes - all in the second quarter - yet the Under still cashed by a double digit margin as there were no points scored - by the Cheifs or the Raiders - the entire second half! Scoring may be a bit more "evenly distributed" this week in Detroit, but we still feel it won't be enough to go Over. Take the Under. 

The Lions are 2-0-1, the first time they've been unbeaten through three weeks since 2011. Last week, they went to Philadelphia and surprised the Eagles in 27-24 upset as four-point underdogs. Early in the game, they became the 1st team this year to return a kickoff for a TD and ultimately that was the difference between winning and losing as well as the game going Over rather than Under. The Lions' offense was hardly dominant, gaining a season-low 287 total yards. This is not one of the better offenses at running the football, which bodes well for a Chiefs' defense that was gashed on the ground last week by Baltimore. 

The last time these teams combined to go Under was 1988 as the last seven meetings all have gone Over. But this is a really high total for Detroit and even for KC it's the highest to date. The Lions do rank 12th in the league in scoring defense (20.3 PPG allowed) and the Under is 6-0 in their previous six home games. That includes just one this season, but it was a 13-10 win over the Chargers. Mahomes has never played in a dome in his pro career. We don't think the Lions will do much scoring here and we're not sure the Chiefs will hit 30 either. 10* Under Chiefs/Lions

10* Over East Carolina/Old Dominion (6:00 ET): This is a similar type deal to last week's top total on the Under in Kentucky-Miss State. Only this time, we're looking at an Over. What's the similarity then? Well, as noted last week, Kentucky & Miss State had combined to go 6-0 Over in their first six games. Here, the teams have combined to 7-0 to the Under. We can't wholeheartedly endorse either offense, but b/c of the OU records, this number is low. Too low. It's one of the lowest on the board Saturday. These teams combined for 72 points last season, a 37-35 ECU win as seven-point favorites. Might not be that high-scoring again, but it goes Over. 

The total for that meeting LY in Greenvile was 60.5. Thus, it's quite the drop a year later (almost two touchdowns). That ECU win LY even came before current QB Holton Ahlers took over. Interestingly, Old Dominion's new DC (David Blackwell) was East Carolina's DC last season. Blackwell's new unit is showing similar improvement to what we saw w/ ECU LY as the Monarchs gave up only 244 total yds. But don't let the fact ECU scored only 19 last week fool you. The Pirates put up 480 total yds on William & Mary. But they settled for five field goal attempts, missing one. The Pirates' offense should know what what ODU is going to do defensively here due to the familiarity w/ the coordinator. They did score 48 themselves in a win earlier in the year over Gardner-Webb. 

Blackwell leaving ECU does adversely affect their defense. While we thought the Pirates only scoring 19 last week was misleading, so was the fact they only gave up seven points.  W&M had three drives of 36+ yards ending w/ them turning it over on downs. The Pirates won't be able to bend like that w/o breaking again this week as they are facing a FBS opponent. After playing the defenses of Va Tech and Virginia, Old Dominion will welcome this chance to face a defense that has allowed over 480 YPG its first two times playing on the road. The Pirates allowed 34 and 42 pts in those games as well. ODU actually led Virginia 17-0 in the first half last week. The game ended up staying Under by only 2 points and that was vs. a much better defense. 10* Over East Carolina/Old Dominion

10* Over Bears/Redskins (8:20 ET): The Chicago offense hasn't looked so good in the first two games, scoring all of 19 points. Quite frankly, they are lucky that number isn't 16. Were it, that means the Bears would be coming into Monday night at 0-2. But new kicker Eddie Pineiro booted a 54 yard FG as time expired LW in Denver, giving his team a 16-14 win. Lucky for Chicago, this week they are facing a Redskins' defense that is the proverbial "gift that keeps on giving." Look for QB Mitchell Trubisky and company to have a "breakout" game here, helping this one go Over the total. 

Washington has actually started both of its games well. They were up 17-0 over the Eagles in the 2nd quarter back in Week 1. They also shut out the high-powered Cowboys' offense for a quarter and half last week. But in both games, the defense fell apart in the second half. The Redskins have given up 63 points total and 455 YPG. They are allowing 6.8 yards per play. In the second halves alone, the Skins have allowed 569 total yards. That's almost as many as the Bears' defense has allowed total this year. Again, I expect the Bears offense to wake up from it "early season slumber" here.

You're likely to hear about some trends of when the road team is favored on MNF, the games tend to stay Under. Plus, the Bears' last seven games (dating back to last season) have all stayed Under. When you've got a top defense and a suspect offense (like the Bears do), that's not a surprise. But note Washington QB Case Keenum hasn't been that bad so far, throwing for 601 yards and five touchdowns w/ zero interceptions. The Redskins have averaged 24 PPG against two good teams (Eagles, Cowboys) so far. So don't be surprised if they score more than you think here. The Over is 13-4 in Chicago's L17 road games vs. teams that have a losing home record. 10* Over Bears/Redskins

8* Over Broncos/Packers (1:00 ET): We've seen eight quarters of this Packers' offense and truthfully the results haven't been all that great. They've scored all of four touchdowns, three of them coming in successive drives to open last week's game vs. Minnesota. Yet, here they are at 2-0 SU and leading the NFC North w/ a pair of division wins. Credit for the start can go to the defense, which has done its job in allowing just two touchdowns in two games (and only 19 pts total) while Aaron Rodgers is still learning 1st year HC Matt LaFleur's offense. But this week we're going to look for a bit higher scoring game w/ the Broncos. Take the Over. 

Denver is 0-2, but one thing they have in common w/ the Pack is both games have stayed Under the total. In fact, the Broncos' last 10 games have all stayed Under as have 15 of the last 18. There was some definite skepticism over Joe Flacco's arrival here in the Mile High City, at this stage of his career. But so far Flacco has completed 69% of his passes for 560 yards. That's not bad. It was a brutal loss to the Bears (who the Packers beat in Week 1) last week on a last second 53-yard field goal. Both Broncos' losses this year have technically been by one possession as they fell 24-16 in Oakland back in Week 1. 

Denver may not be a common opponent for Rodgers and the Pack, but they are quite familiar w/ the defensive scheme run by Broncos' 1st year HC Vic Fangio, who previously served as the Bears' defensive coordinator. This Broncos defense simply isn't as good as what Fangio was fielding in the Windy City as they've yet to register a turnover or single sack. As for that Packers defense, which has been labeled as much improved by everyone (including Rodgers himself), it still allowed 7.0 yards per play last week, whch was second most in the league. Many times w/ these 3-game reports, I have a prevailing theme and in every game here we're going Over w/ two teams that have gone Under in each of the first two games. 8* Over Broncos/Packers 

8* Over Raiders/Vikings (1:00 ET): The Raiders never seem to have much success in these 1 PM ET kickoffs and truth be told, we don't anticipate them doing too well this week in Minneapolis, their first road game of 2019. They're off a 28-10 loss to Kansas City, which was a short week (played Monday night in Week 1), but it certainly didn't bother them early as they jumped out to a 10-0 first quarter lead. But from there, they wouldn't score again. The defense gave up four touchdowns in the second quarter, all TD passes by Patrick Mahomes, but no points in the second half. A second half w/ no scoring is quite rare, but we'll take it as we were on the Under! This week though, it's a different story. Take the Over. 

As mentioned in the Broncos/Packers writeup, the Minnesota offense averaged a whopping 7.0 yards per play last week. But unfortunately, they still lost, 21-16. Scoring only 16 points while gaining 7.0 YPP is just about as rare as no points being scored in the entire second half of a NFL game. In the Vikings' case, much of the blame for last week's loss can be placed on Kirk Cousins, who threw a terrible 4th quarter INT in the end zone (had no business making that pass). There were four Vikings' turnovers overall last week, not to mention a missed field goal. Clean up some of those mistakes, which shouldn't be hard to do against the Raiders, and you'll have a more productive offense this week. 

Again, the common theme in this three-pack is going Over with two teams that have gone Under in both games. We've got a low total in all three of the games. The Raiders' defense gave up 443 yards passing last week. That was against Mahomes, but Cousins is certainly capable of having a productive day himself. The Vikings' offense scored 28 points here at home in the opener. The way the defense gave up touchdowns on three straight drives to open LW's game in Green Bay was concerning though. The Raiders' offense almost always gets off to a good start and that should be enough to help this one go Over. 8* Over Raiders/Vikings

8* Over Jets/Patriots (1:00 ET): So the Antonio Brown era in New England didn't last long as the troubled receiver was cut after just two weeks and one game. Call me crazy, but the Patriots probably won't miss him. Through two games, they haven't allowed a touchdown and have outscored their first two opponents 76-3. A matchup here w/ the Jets, who are on a short week and down to a second-year, third-string QB, all but guarantees they'll be 3-0 after this week. But with a historically large pointspread, it's not like laying the number is an option here. Instead, we'll go Over the total. 

With Sam Darnold (mono) and Trevor Simien (torn ankle ligaments) both out, Luke Falk is now the man in charge of the Jets' offense now. This is an ominous sign seeing as Falk was on the practice squad last week. He'll be looking to replicate what fellow Washington State alum Gardner Minshew has done w/ Jacksonville. Facing this Patriots' defense, it's tough to like Falk's chances, but stranger things have happened. Unlike when he was "thrown to the wolves" against the Browns Monday night, Falk will at least have had reps w/ the first team offense in practice. Falk does rank 8th all-time in passing yards in NCAA history. 

The Patriots' 43-0 annihilation of Miami last week included two defensive touchdowns and one from Brown, who is now gone. But they'll still find other ways to score this week. Remember they gained 465 total yds in the opening week win over the Steelers. The historically bad Dolphins could hardly muster anything against the Patriots defense last week, but the Pats are 5-1 Over after allowing less than 250 total yards their previous game. The Under is 6-0 the L6 meetings in this AFC East rivalry, but this number has come down too far for that trend to continue. 8* Over Jets/Patriots

10* Under Lions/Eagles (1:00 ET): Things have grown so dire on the injury front for the Eagles that HC Doug Pederson had no choice but to cancel practice Wednesday and do a walkthrough instead. We know that the offense will be w/o WR DeSean Jackson Sunday, a big loss. Fellow starting wideout Alshon Jeffrey and TE Dallas Goedert are both dealing w/ calf strains and may miss this game as well. That leaves the likes of Nelson Agholor (who has never lived up to expectations), JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Mack Hollins as the potential top options for Carson Wentz. That's hardly attractive. We still like the Eagles this year, but they're going to struggle to score points right now. 

The Eagles did put 20 points on the board last week in Atlanta, but gained fewer than 300 total yards for the game and just 4.0 yds per play. Here they run into a Detroit defense that's playing well for 2nd year HC Matt Patricia. Last week, the Lions held the Chargers to 10 points, though it helped that LA missed a couple of field goals. But they were also better than the box score showed in Week 1 vs. Arizona. That's a game where they gassed late and allowed 21 pts in the 4Q/OT and wound up w/ a tie. But they allowed just 4.7 YPP in that game. This will be the second week in a row they get to face a banged up offense. 

Remember that the Eagles got off to a slow start in Week 1 vs. Washington. Eventually, the offense got on track, but that's when they were healthier and facing an atrocious Redskins' defense (wound up winning 32-27). Since the start of last year, Philly has scored a league-low 41 pts in the first quarter. Eight of the Lions' last nine games have stayed Under the total, the exception being the Week 1 tie w/ Arizona. The last seven times they've played the Eagles, the game has gone Over. So something has to give here. With the Eagles' injury issues, we should expect a lower-scoring than usual effort from them. The Lions have managed just 40 points this season despite playing an extra 10 mins of football. 10* Under Lions/Eagles

10* Under Kentucky/Mississippi St (4:00 ET): So this matchup is quite the reverse of Thursday night's Over play on Houston-Tulane. The Thursday night game saw the teams come in w/ a combined 6-0 Under mark while this Saturday afternoon battle in the SEC sees two teams that are 6-0. Something else Kentucky and Miss State have in common here is both are coming in off narrow losses at home last week. Kentucky lost to Florida 29-21 while Mississippi State was upset here in Starkville by a Kansas State team that it looks like we all underestimated. But what we're interested in here is the total as one of the starting QB's may be OUT here (Miss St) and last year's game was really low scoring. That's what we are anticipating again here. Take the Under. 

You had to figure MSU's defense would take a step back this year after giving up just 13.2 PPG a season ago. That was #2 in the country, behind only Alabama, but three #1 NFL Draft choices left that group. Still, it's been disconcerting to see the Bulldogs give up so many points early on, including 28 to Louisiana and 31 LW to Kansas State. Note, however, that they allowed less than 300 total yards in last week's loss. The difference in the game ended up being a 100-yard kick return for TD by Kansas State, which came just after Miss St had taken a seven-point lead. The Bulldogs defense than uncharacteristically wilted late, giving up a six-play, 53-yard drive to lose the game. Before that, they had been just fine. 

But Miss St potentially has bigger problems heading into this game as QB Tommy Stevens may not play. A shoulder injury has limited him each of the L2 games and last week he had to be taken out after throwing two picks and completing only 7 of 15 passes for 100 yards. Regardless of whether or not Stevens does play here, this Under is play is on as he clearly won't be at 100 percent. Last year, the Bulldogs' offense managed only 7 points as they were upset on the road by Kentucky. But we still trust that defense to play better than it has. Kentucky was probably the least dominant 10-win team in the country a year ago, so they figure to take a step back in 2019. They lost their top offensive player from LY (RB Benny Snell) and have only four starters back from a defense that gave up just 16.8 PPG. Still, they did hold Florida to just 10 points through three quarters last week (fell apart in 4Q) after allowing only 17 pts the previous game. 10* Under Kentucky/Mississippi State

10* Over Houston/Tulane (8:00 ET): Suffice to say, most probably wouldn't have banked on Tulane being favored over Houston in this game, let alone by more than a field goal. But the Green Wave have looked strong in both their wins, the first of which we were on as they clobbered FIU 42-14 as just a three-point home favorite in the opener. The big difference right now between them and Houston is that they've faced just one Power 5 opponent (Auburn) while UH has faced two (Oklahoma, Washington State). That is basically the sole reason Tulane comes into this game at 2-1 while Houston is 1-2. We cashed the Cougars in Week 1 as they covered at Oklahoma. They also covered last week vs. Washington State. Both of these teams can claim to have blown out a FCS opponent. It's really a pretty even matchup as Tulane is certainly improved while Houston is better than its record.

Something else the teams have in common is they've gone Under in every game. Well, that comes w/ a caveat. There was no O/U line posted for Tulane's game last week, a 58-6 win over Missouri State. One would think if there had been, the game would have gone Over with that final score. The Green Wave offense is averaging 436 YPG, led by QB Justin McMillan. Since he took over as the starter halfway through last season, this has been a much better football team. They've gone 7-2 SU with the only losses coming to Auburn (24-6) two weeks ago and to ... Houston (48-17) last year. The Green Wave have scored 28 and 38 points in the first halves of their two home games this year. They have five players w/ at least 96 rush yards so far this season. 

Houston had a poor finish to last season (cost Major Applewhite his job), but remember what we said in the analysis for the Oklahoma game. That poor finish was tied to the loss of QB D'Eriq King (injured) for the last two games. Ironically, the injury he suffered (knee) last year came against this Tulane team. Before getting hurt, King accounted for FIFTY touchdowns (36 passing, 14 rushing), which led all of FBS. The bad news for the Cougars is the defense, which has given up 686 yards to Oklahoma, 343 to Prairie View A&M and 489 to Washington State. Both of these offenses can move the ball and score. The O/U lines for the first three Houston games were all 74+ points. The O/U line for LY's meeting was 68.0. So getting a number like this one seems like a real value play. 10* Over Houston/Tulane

10* Over Bears/Broncos (4:25 ET): We're going Over on the lowest total on the board Sunday. Certainly, it would appear as if Chicago has a significant edge heading into this Week 2 matchup as they've had FOUR extra days to prepare. But, like Denver, they're also off a loss and it was an ugly offensive effort to boot. They scored only three points in an Opening Night loss to rival Green Bay, which was at home. The Broncos weren't much flashier offensively in a 24-16 loss to the Raiders Monday night. Despite each team's history of Unders, we're going Over here as trends are (sometimes) made to be broken. 

Chicago has gone Under in its last six games dating back to last year. The jury is still out on QB Mitchell Trubisky, who didn't play well at against the Packers in Week 1. He surprisingly threw 45 times, completing only 26 for 228 yards. There's still reason to believe in HC Matt Nagy though. He was brought in for his offensive mind and I suspect we'll be seeing the Bears run the ball a lot more in Week 2. That said, it's not a bad idea for Trubisky to air it out when necessary against a Denver defense that just allowed an 84.6 completion rate to Derek Carr. Remember that Nagy & the Bears offense will be quite familiar w/ the Denver defensive schemes as their former DC Vic Fangio is now the Broncos head coach. 

Since the start of last season, Denver has gone 14-3 Under in all of its games. The Under is 10-0 the L10 games. However, while it's a long-term trend, the Broncos are 21-8 Over the week after playing Monday night. A big part of the reason they lost to the Raiders in Week 1 was red zone inefficiency. They kicked three field goals, two of them just 26 yarders and the other a curious decision when down 15 in the 4Q. Chicago's defense was as good as any in the league last year, but we see them slipping a bit w/ Fangio now in Denver. Look for this game to sneak Over the total. 10* Over Bears/Broncos

8* Under Chiefs/Raiders (4:05 ET): Well, the Kansas City offense showed no signs of slowing down from a record-setting 2018 campaign. In Week 1, they hung 40 points on a Jaguars defense that remains well-regarded. That was the sixth time since the start of last year that they'd done so. (Interestingly enough, the Chiefs LOST two of those games). There were only four games LY where they failed to score at least 30 and the fewest pts scored in any game was 26, ironically against a bad Arizona team. This week, the Chiefs play in Oakland against a Raiders team that's feeling pretty good about itself after a win Monday night. However, this total is too high (highest on the board) and we're going Under. 

Though they won rather handily, it wasn't all good news in Week 1 for the Chiefs. Speedster Tyreek Hill was lost to an injury. Even though Sammy Watkins had 198 yards receiving and three touchdowns last week, that kind of production simply cannot be counted on every week, especially from a player like Watkins. Slowing down this KC offense is easier said than done, but we do believe ultimately it will prove too difficult for them to match LY's record-setting producton. Over the L21 years, the Chiefs have gone Under 15 times in Week 2. 

Oakland averaged just over 18 PPG each of the last two seasons, but went for 24 last week vs. Denver. A short week is hardly ideal when facing one of the league's better teams and numerous trends point to a lower-scoring effort this week from the Raiders. They are 6-1-1 Under following a SU win and 5-0-1 Under following a game in which they had 250+ yards passing. Derek Carr completed almost 85% of his pass attempts against the Broncos. Even w/ my reservations about the Chiefs defense, Carr is unlikely to replicate that number this week. It's a divisional game, so there's familiarity with the respective schemes of each side (no coaching changes here). Look for the Chiefs' offense to "take a week off" (by their high-scoring standard) and the Raiders not to be that effective moving the ball compared to MNF. 8* Under Chiefs/Raiders

10* Over Broncos/Raiders (10:20 ET): Well, we know what the story going into this game will be. One of the oddest sagas in recent NFL history ended Saturday w/ the Raiders releasing WR Antonio Brown before he even got to play a regular season game for them. Truth be told, Jon Gruden's return here to Oakland has been rocky at best. With Brown, the Raiders are a team we expected to improve (some) in 2019 and the same holds true for their Week 1 opponent, Denver. The Broncos have a new QB, or rather an old one in Joe Flacco, who comes over after leaving Baltimore. It's a really low total Monday night and you should look for the game to go Over the total. 

Looking at team-by-team OU records from LY, none really stand out except one. Denver stayed Under in 13 of 16 games. They only averaged 20.6 points per game, but only gave up 21.8. They actually played better than you realize in the sense that they were only outscored by 20 pts over the course of the season and were 6-6 through 12 games. Flacco is clearly not a long-term solution at QB, nor are we even sure he's a good option in the present, but the Broncos should easily score in this game against an Oakland defense that gave up the most points in the league last year. Denver has gone Over in eight of its last nine season openers. 

With Brown gone, how will the Raiders score points? Well, it starts w/ Derek Carr, who three years ago guided this offense to a respectable 25.3 PPG. The Silver and Black have been down to 18.8 and 18.1 PPG the last two seasons and those are simply unacceptable numbers. The Raiders do have a lot of new starters on offense even w/ Brown gone and a suspect line is going to have to do a better job at protecting Carr. But look for the Raiders to score more than you think Monday night. The same holds true for Denver. Again, this is a low number. Take the Over. 10* Over Broncos/Raiders

10* Over Packers/Bears (8:25 ET): Going into last year, I predicted that Chicago would be one of the more improved teams in the league. Little did I know just HOW improved they'd end up being. The Bears rode of the league's top defenses to 12-4 SU and the NFC North title while 1st year HC Matt Nagy also retooled the offense. They ended up being one and done in the playoffs, losing at home to Philadelphia on the infamous Cody Parkey missed kick. For 2019, I do not think the Bears will match LY's win total, but do expect they'll still contend for the playoffs. 

When the Packers fell to 7-9 SU in 2017, they had the built-in excuse of an Aaron Rodgers injury. But w/ a full season of Rodgers, the Pack shockingly won one fewer game in 2018. Mike McCarthy was finally shown the door and in steps Matt LaFleur, who will be tasked with squeezing the most out of the team w/ Rodgers still in his prime. I do think Green Bay will be better this year. In fact, they're my call to win the division. That doesn't mean I'm picking them to win here in Chicago though. One thing is for certain - after blowing a huge lead to Green Bay in Week 1 last year, the Bears will come out motivated at home. 

Four of the last five meetings between these rivals have gone Over the number. The one that didn't was the most recent, a 24-17 victory by the Bears that snapped a five-game losing streak in the rivalry. The Bears scored 23 and 24 in the two games last year and I think the offense should continue to improve under Nagy. I do not think the defense will be able to match LY's numbers. Specfically, a +12 turnover margin. The Bears also lost DC Vic Fangio. Free from the shackles of McCarthy, expect Rodgers to excel. He threw only TWO INT's LY despite 450+ attempts. Unfortunately, I'm not sold on the Packers' defense. The Pack have gone Over in 7 of their last 8 regular season openers and 37 of their L55 road games. 10* Over Packers/Bears

10* Over Notre Dame/Louisville (8:00 ET): This number has been bet way down, opening up an opportunity to bet the game Over. Louisville is coming off an absolutely disastrous 2018 campaign that led to Bobby Petrino being run out of town (again!) But as bad as last year was, I think Scott Sattefield is walking into a fairly ideal situation here as the Cardinals can only improve in 2019. Aiding in that improvement is the fact there are 16 returning starters, including 10 on the defensive side of the ball. But make no mistake about it, this defense has a LONG way to go after giving up a ghastly 44.1 PPG a year ago. 

While Louisville fell into the abyss, Notre Dame made it all the way to the College Football Playoff. They were of course embarrassed by Clemson, losing 30-3 as 12-pt underdogs. That line and subsequent result raised questions about whether or not the Irish were deserving of the spot in the playoffs, but if this school goes unbeaten in the regular season, they're always going to get in. I don't think this is anything close to a playoff team in 2019 and in fact expect some fairly serious regression in South Bend. They were a perfect 4-0 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less last year and that isn't likely to repeat itself. 

Notre Dame's defense was really good last year, giving up just 18.2 PPG. That was their lowest number under HC Brian Kelly since the team that reached the Nat'l Champ Game in 2012 (and also got embarrassed). But they lost three players to the NFL Draft on that side of the ball as well as three of their top five tacklers. Louisville isn't going to be as inept offensively as they were last year, but the defense will continue to struggle early on, despite all those returning starters. Both teams return LY's starter at QB, so it'll be the offenses that are ahead of the defenses in this one. Louisville closed last season on a 7-1 Over run. 10* Over Notre Dame/Louisville

10* Under Patriots/Chiefs (6:40 ET): Kansas City has some distinct advantages getting this game at home. First off, they don't have to play on Foxboro. New England won all nine of its home games this year and did so while averaging 33.8 PPG. On the road, the Pats' scoring average drops to 21.6 PPG. Three of their five non-division road games produced 10-point efforts (losses to Detroit, Tennessee and Pittsburgh). Kansas City's defense has been maligned much of this year, but they actually perform quite well at home where they give up only 17.4 PPG. With the dropoff in scoring New England sees on the road and the increase in defensive prowess from the Chiefs, the Under is an easy call for me this week. Plus, Kansas City actually averages fewer points per game at home than on the road! (Update: it also looks like they're getting Eric Berry this week!).

Last week of course, the Over in the Patriots' game was my *10* Total of the Year. But that was in Foxboro. Everything that could go right for them in the first half did. They took advantage of a terrible Chargers' defensive gameplan and scored 35 points by halftime. The majority of points they gave up came in "garbage time" w/ the result of the game in little to no doubt. The Chargers gained more than two-thirds of their total yardage in the final quarter and a half when the Patriots were already ahead 38-7. Though often labeled as a "bend but don't break" type outfit (even by me!), we probably should give Belichick's defense more credit. There are multiple instances of games like last week's artificially inflating the number of yards they allow. This unit finished tied for 6th in the league in scoring during the regular season, giving up just 20.3 PPG. 

Kansas City's defense was able to wrest some of the headlines away from its record-setting offense w/ a truly dominant performance last week against the Colts. Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis offense had been on a real roll going into that game, but the Chiefs limited them to basically nothing in the first half. The Colts' lone TD came w/ just over five minutes remaining in the game (scored on a blocked punt in 1st half). They went three-and-out on three of the first four possessions and had just 12 total yds at the end of the first quarter. I should conclude by talking about the weather for this game as it is expected to be downright frigid. Sometimes that's "much ado about nothing," but this O/U line is high. Given the final score of the regular season meeting between the two (43-40 Pats), that's understandable, but I expect a much different results at Arrowhead where games average "only" 49.6 PPG. 10* Under Patriots/Chiefs

10* Over Chargers/Patriots (1:05 ET): Points were not plentiful on Wild Card Weekend and that includes the Chargers' 23-17 win over the Ravens. From the Chargers' perspective, that game probably shouldn't have ended up so close as they were gifted a couple early turnovers and had a couple of long returns from the special teams. Yet three different times they started on the Baltimore side of the field and could only manage field goals. Their defense largely dominated Lamar Jackson early, using a creative scheme, but let the Ravens back in late w/ a couple of long 4Q TD drives. I have every reason to believe we're going to get a much higher scoring game this weekend and the Over on Chargers-Patriots is my top Playoff Total of the Year! 

It's a much different QB and offense that Los Angeles will have to defend this week as they face Tom Brady and a Patriots team that averages 32.9 PPG at home. Last week, partly due to being short on linebackers, the Chargers went w/ 7 DB's on all but one snap. This clearly confused Lamar Jackson, who really never got going running the ball, and the Chargers' D-line dominated the game. Such an approach probably won't be used against Brady, nor would it be successful. For starters, New England has had an extra week to prepare. Secondly, this is not the run heavy offense that Baltimore employs. That's not to say the Chargers' defense won't find success in this game. It's just that it will have to come in a different way. Plus, like I said earlier, the Pats are averaging 32.9 PPG here in Foxboro. 

I played the Over in New England's final regular season game. It ended up coming up just short due to their opponents (Jets) red zone inefficiencies. Twice the Jets had the ball insider the Patriots' 10-yard line and turned it over on downs. That was the difference in the 38-3 final staying Under the 46.5-point total. The Chargers, despite last week's performance, are far less likely to bog down in the red zone. They average an impressive 6.4 yards per play, a number topped only by the offenses of the Chiefs and Rams. New England's defense may be 7th in scoring (20.3 PPG allowed), but that's a little misleading in the sense that they also rank 21st in yards per game (359.1), so it's a real "bend but don't break" unit. Both offenses are in the top six in the league in scoring here and this total is too low. 10* Over Chargers/Patriots

8* Under Clemson/Alabama (8:00 ET): This is the 4th time in 4 years that these schools are facing off in the College Football Playoff. It will be the third time they're playing to determine the National Championship. Alabama won the first go-around, 45-40 in 2016, a game which featured a 40-point fourth quarter. A year later, Deshaun Watson & Clemson returned the favor, winning 35-31 on a last second TD. Last year, they met in the semifinal round and Bama won handily, 24-6. There is no doubt that Clemson is a better team this year w/ Trevor Lawrence at QB. Alabama also has a different QB than last year as Tua Tagovailoa, who remember didn't come in until LY's Champ Game vs. Georgia. But despite the new QBs, don't expect scoring to be on the level of the 2016 or even 2017 games. Take the Under here. 

I was on the Over in both of those previous Bama-Clemson National Championship Games. The offenses now, particularly Alabama's (best ever under Saban?), are better. I was also on the Over in LY's Bama-Georgia Champ Game,  which ended up being a lucky winner (OT), but I argued that the respective offenses were being undervalued coming into that game. This year, I think it's the defenses that are being undervalued. Clemson is #2 in the country in scoring defense (13.7 PPG allowed) and #3 in efficiency. Alabama is #4 in scoring (14.8 PPG allowed) and #1 in efficiency. So let's not make the mistake of forgetting about those two units, OK?

Despite not having Dexter Lawrence, the Clemson defense gave up next to nothing to Notre Dame in the semifinal matchup. I had the Under in that game as the Tigers rolled to a 30-3 victory, giving up just 248 total yds of offense. Now, it will obviously not be that easy here. But aside from that perplexing performance vs. South Carolina, this Clemson defense has not allowed more than 16 points since September. Not to be outdone, Alabama just held the nation's top offense (Oklahoma) well under its season average in PPG. The 34 pts allowed in the semfinal actually marked a season high for the Crimson Tide, but given the opponent that's actually an admirable number. It was also just the third time all year they allowed more than 23 points. Eight times, they allowed 17 pts or less. I expect this game to be much lower scoring than expected. 8* Under Clemson/Alabama

10* Under Texas/Georgia (8:45 ET): Something will have to give here. Georgia has gone 6-1-1 ATS its last eight times as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. But Texas' HC Tom Herman has a ridiculous mark as an underdog in his career, going 12-3 ATS w/ 10 outright upsets. My own personal numbers indicate that UGA absolutely deserves to be favored in this price range. But there may be an issue of motivation w/ them coming up short against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Therefore, with two defensive minded teams, I'm on the Under in this year's Sugar Bowl. 

Georgia is a top five team in defensive efficiency and allows just 18.5 PPG (top 15 in the country). They allow just 311.2 YPG. After the gap between the winners and losers in Saturday's CFP semifinals became readily apparent, I think it should be obvious to all that the Dawgs are pretty clearly one of the four best teams in America (maybe 3rd?). While there last three games all went Over the total, two of those were against overmatched opponents where the offense was able to score at will. That won't be the case here vs. Texas. The other was the SEC Champ Game vs. an Alabama team that has the best offense of the Saban era. 

Playing indoors (Cowboys Stadium), Texas was able to hold the top scoring offense in the country (Oklahoma) to "just" 39 points. That's no small feat. You may recall I had the Under in the game, which cashed pretty easily. Texas' last three games all stayed Under. Despite routinely facing some of the top offenses in the country, the Longhorns managed to allow just 26.2 PPG during the regular season. Georgia, while potentially explosive offensively, is not as explosive as some of the Big 12 teams Texas is used to facing. The Under is 4-1 in Texas' last five bowl games and 31-11 their L42 games vs. teams w/ a winning record. 10* Under Texas/Georgia 

8* Under LSU/Central Florida (1:00 ET): This is the Fiesta Bowl w/ 9-3 LSU of the SEC taking on a 12-0 Central Florida team that just completed its second unbeaten regular season in as many years. It's always fun to see how the so-called "Group of Five" teams (best team from CFB's five smallest conferences) do against the big boys in these New Year's Six Bowl Games. Quite frankly, they've more than held their own, going not only 4-1 ATS, but also pulling four outright upsets. That includes an upset by UCF (over Auburn) in LY's Peach Bowl. Unfortunately for this year's Golden Knights, they're going to have to make a go of it this time w/o QB McKenzie Milton, who suffered a season-ending injury in the regular season finale. Ultimately, I believe that injury will prevent UCF from winning here. It also should result in a much lower-scoring game than anticipated.

Now, I know what UCF fans are probably saying. "Without Milton, we just scored 56 points in the AAC Championship Game." This is true. But that was against a porous Memphis defense that allows over 425 YPG (gave up 37 in the bowl to Wake Forest). Here, the Knights must contend w/ a LSU defense that is top 10 nationally in efficiency. The Tigers allow only 20.9 PPG and that number would be even lower were it not for the insane regular season finale that they played against Texas A&M and wound up going SEVEN overtimes and a 74-72 final. In nine wins this year, LSU never gave up more than 21 points. They allowed 17 or fewer in seven games. They will easily be the best defense that UCF has seen all season. 

Speaking of defense, UCF has a pretty good one as well. At the risk of sounding like a broken record (too late?), the Knights competition was nowhere close to what LSU faced in the rugged SEC, but they still only allowed 21.2 PPG and the American does have some really good offensive teams. With Milton out, defense may be how UCF hangs around in this one. Eight of UCF's 12 games have stayed Under this year w/ the AAC Champ Game snapping a string of Unders. This number has been bet up and I now find that the value is on the Under. 8* Under LSU/Central Florida  

8* Over Cowboys/Giants (1:00 ET): There's not a lot on the line in these 1 PM ET kickoffs Sunday, so I'm pretty much confined to looking at totals. In the case of this NFC East rivalry, the Over has cashed five times in a row, a stark contrast to the streak of seven straight Overs before that. Dallas has clinched the NFC East and knows it will be the #4 seed (in all likelihood hosting Seattle in the Wild Card Round) so it will probably choose not to play its starters very long, if at all. The Giants are having another playoff year and without one of their top two offensive weapons (Odell Beckham Jr). But they still have Saquon Barkley and this could very well be the last ever home start Eli Manning makes in a Giants uniform. I think he (Eli) in particularly will look to go out w/ a bang. 

With the uncertainly over how much Dallas starters will play, this total is low. But HC Jason Garrett has given no indication that he plans on resting his key players, even QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliott or WR Amari Cooper. There is an argument that the team would not want to lose any momentum heading into the playoffs after winning six of their last seven games. Two weeks ago, they were shutout in Indianapolis, but last week bounced back w/ a 27-20 win over Tampa Bay. Elliott, in particular, has said he wants to play. I realize that the Cowboys' defense has played exceptionally well this season, but they've also given up at least 20 points each of the L3 weeks.

Manning is going to want to put on a show here, in case it is his last home game as the starting QB of the Giants. Last week, the G-Men put up 27 points on the same Colts defense that shutout Dallas. I had them as big underdogs and they led outright most of the way before giving up the GW TD in the final minute. The Giants have now scored at least 27 pts in regulation in five of the last seven games, three of those coming w/o OBJ. The defense also allowed over 400 total yards last week. With nothing tangible to gain for either side, don't be surprised to see a more "wide open" game here, certainly more so than what we saw in the Week 2 meeting, which was a 20-13 Cowboys victory. 8* Over Cowboys/Giants

8* Over Jets/Patriots (1:00 ET): New England has something to play for here, namely a 1st round bye in the playoffs. They've already clinched the AFC East for a 10th straight year, but an older team like this one would probably relish the opportunity to have next week off. Fortunately for the Patriots, they're at home this week and hosting the Jets. Just how important would a bye be to the Patriots? Well, they're the league's only unbeaten team at home (7-0) and they average an impressive 32.1 PPG in Foxboro. That number is well up from how much they average on the road (21.6 PPG) where they're only 3-5 SU. The last five meetings w/ the Jets have all resulted in Unders, but I feel New England drags this one Over by themselves if they have to. 

The Jets are perceived as a "tough out" for the Patriots, but they've only beaten them once since 2013. That was in Week 16 of the 2015 season, Todd Bowles first year as the HC here. Barring something unforeseen happening, this will be Bowles last game coaching the Jets. The team has lost 11+ games in each of the last three seasons and clearly needs new direction w/ Sam Darnold as the QB. Speaking of Darnold, he actually owns the league's highest QBR the L3 weeks. The Jets have gone Over in four straight games, averaging over 27 PPG. Last week, they lost a 44-38 shootout in overtime against Green Bay. I don't see the Jets simply "rolling over" and giving this game to the Patriots. They should have a decent offensive gameplan. 

The Under is 7-1 in the Patriots' last eight games, the one exception being that wild loss in Miami where the Dolphins lateraled their way to victory. One of the Under was against these Jets in a 27-13 victory. But I expect New England to top 30 in this one being that they are at home. Last week saw them finish w/ just 24 points against Buffalo, but that was also with a run-heavy approach in the second half simply designed to kill clock. Plus, say what you will about the Bills, but they actually have a very competent defense. The same cannot be said for the Jets, who give up almost 27 PPG and allowed 540 total yds to Aaron Rodgers last week. 8* Over Jets/Patriots

analysis soon

10* Over Oklahoma/Alabama (8:00 ET): The Orange Bowl will play host to the second CFP semifinal of Saturday evening as #1 Alabama takes on #4 Oklahoma. We are dealing with two of the top offenses in the country here. In fact, they rank #1 and #2 in the country in scoring w/ OU leading the way at 49.5 PPG and Bama not far behind at 47.9. The Sooners are #1 in most offensive categories while the Crimson Tide are top five. However, and rightly so, all the focus going into this game will center around the health of the two starting QBs. Oklahoma's Kyler Murray is reportedly battling an unspecified illness while Alabama's Tua Tagovailao is still recovering from the ankle injury he suffered in the SEC Championship Game. In the end, both should be fine and play well. I expect this to be a completely wild game, full of scoring. Take the Over.

If Alabama can score 35 against Georgia's defense w/ Tua not even playing a full game, then just imagine what they can do against Oklahoma' shaky stop unit. The Sooners already give up 38.5 PPG outside of Norman and allowed more than that in their last three games. Now they face not only the best offense they'll see all year, but probably the best Alabama offense of the Nick Saban era. Think about that for a minute. The Tide scored at least 45 pts in all but four games and that's after going through a SEC gauntlet that features numerous defenses that are substantially better than OU. It is not unrealistic to believe Bama can score every time they have the ball in this game. If for some reason Tua is not firing on all cylinders, the Tide have a proven "backup" in Jalen Hurts. 

With Bama likely to score at will in this game, Oklahoma will be left to play "catch up." Fortunately, Murray and company will be more than happy to oblige, even against the usual ferocious Bama defense. Oklahoma's offensive numbers are just ridiculous. The only opponent that was able to even remotely slow them down was Army, who played a brand of "keep away" that I'm not sure any other team in the country is capable of playing. In the face of very high weekly totals, Oklahoma still went 10-3 Over. (Alabama is 9-4). With the two top offenses in the country clashing here, I have zero hesitation about betting the Over, even with the high O/U line. 10* Over Oklahoma/Alabama

8* Under Notre Dame/Clemson (4:00 ET): The big story for this College Football Playoff semifinal is that Clemson has lost DT Dexter Lawrence to a failed drug test. Right now, Notre Dame seems to be the one semifinalist floating under the radar. Both teams in the other game (Alabama-Oklahoma) are dealing with health issues at QB. The Fighting Irish don't seem to have any issues coming into this game and should be in a far greater position to compete compared to that now-infamous showing vs. Alabama in 2012, the last time they tried to compete for a national title. Both of these teams are really strong defensively w/ Clemson having a legit claim to being the top stop unit in the country (w/ Lawrence). I don't think Lawrence's absence will end up hurting the Tigers that much - or stop this game from staying Under. 

Notre Dame only gives up 17.2 points per game. The secondary has allowed just seven touchdown passes and has 12 interceptions. Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is very talented, but remember he's a freshman and this will obviously be the biggest game of his career. Not only are the Fighting Irish adept at defending the pass, they also allow only 3.7 yards per carry on the ground. The Irish did not allow more than 27 points in any game this year and allowed 17 or less eight times. This is a team that was an underdog only once in the regular season, the opener vs. Michigan, and that game stayed Under. So did their final two regular season games.

Clemson has the best defense in the country. Losing a player the caliber of Lawrence could be crippling for most defenses, but this one happens to have three other NFL prospects along its defensive line. The Tigers allow only 13.7 PPG, fewest in the country, and were #1 in the efficiency ratings as well. Notre Dame has not faced a defense this good all year, obviously, or one that's even close. The Tigers did have that poor showing vs. South Carolina, but allowed 200 or fewer yds in two of the last four regular season games. They allow only 2.4 yards per rush and fewer than 100 YPG over land. I don't see Clemson going "off" offensively here, so between that and their top ranked defense, Under is an easy call. 8* Under Notre Dame/Clemson

10* Under Auburn/Purdue (1:30 ET):  One team is likely thrilled to be here in the Music City Bowl while the other is certainly likely to view the assignment as a massive disappointment. It shouldn't take a Rhodes Scholar to find out which is which. Auburn was a preseason top 10 team that lost five regular season games while Purdue is not only back in a bowl for just the second time since 2012 (played in the Foster Farms Bowl LY), but was also able to keep its HC (Jeff Brohm) from bolting for Louisville. Auburn had its own coaching drama and while Gus Mahlzan is staying put, there are many in the fanbase that probably aren't too happy about that. 

But before simply betting Purdue based on a motivational handicap, let's be aware that the Boilermakers are definitely the less talented side here. They needed to beat Indiana for the Old Oaken Bucket in the regular season finale just to get bowl eligible. Led by the QB-WR combo of David Blough & Rondale Moore, Purdue definitely had some impressive performances this year, most notably the 49-20 win over Ohio State. But they also turned in some head-scratchers, like a home loss to Eastern Michigan and 41-10 defeat at Minnesota.  The Under was 4-1 in their road games during the regular season as not only did they score a fewer number of points per game, they also allowed a fewer number. 

The Under was also 4-1 in Auburn's road games, but in their case it was all about an offense that could only average 18.4 PPG. There will be much discussion about this Tigers' offense, which will have a new coordinator next season and a new QB. (Jarrett Stidham is leaving for the NFL after this game). But for the Music City Bowl, Mahlzan will be the playcaller. Stidham had a disappointing year w/ his numbers down across the board compared to last year. The Auburn run game was not particularly effective either, topping 130 yds just twice besides games vs. Liberty & Alabama State. Five times they were held to 103 yds or less on the ground. Mahlzan is 4-0-1 Under in bowl games as the HC here. 10* Under Auburn/Purdue 

10* Under Baylor/Vanderbilt (9:00 ET): I think we've got a situation here where those who have looked at this matchup (Texas Bowl) see a couple of teams whose games stayed Under with a high degree of regularity in the regular season, and think the "worm is due to turn" so to speak. I can't fault that line of thinking as - often times - everything does eventually regress back to the mean. However, in the case of this Baylor-Vandy matchup, I don't see a particularly high scoring game playing out. Both teams are happy to be here, especially Baylor after everything that program has been through and they get to stay in-state as well. Take the Under here.

Vanderbilt's QB Kyle Shurmur (son of Giants' HC Pat) will more than likely become the school's all-time passing leader in this game as he needs only 118 yards to pass Jay Cutler for the honor. But Shurmur was only sixth in the SEC in passing yards per game during the regular season. When playing outside of Nashville this year, the Commodores averaged only 22.0 PPG. That number is down considerably from what they averaged at home. In the three road games vs. ranked opponents, they managed just 37 pts total. Now those games were against Notre Dame, Georgia and Kentucky, all of whom have much better defenses than Baylor. But I still think it's instructive as to how the Vandy offense is capable of faltering.

Baylor being back in a bowl so soon is pretty shocking. The Bears won just one game LY, but give credit to HC Matt Rhule for engineering a tremendous turnaround. We usually associate offense with Baylor and while this team averaged a solid 28.3 PPG, that was actually their lowest scoring average since '09, or pre-RGIII. In each of the Bears' last four losses, they were held to 17 points or less. They're without leading receiver Jalen Hurd for this bowl game and without kicker Drew Galitz. Vanderbilt has a much stronger defense than what Baylor is used to seeing in the Big 12. Both of these offenses rank in the bottom 10 nationally in red zone efficiency and I look for that to be a big factor in this game staying Under the total. 10* Under Baylor/Vanderbilt

8* Over Miami/Wisconsin (5:15 ET): There is quite a bit to unpack here for this year's New Era Pinstripe Bowl. First off, what makes this particular Bowl Game different is that it's played at Yankee Stadium, meaning cold temperatures are a factor. That has played into the narrative that Wisconsin will have an advantage as their opponent hails from the much warmer climate. But be aware that these teams met last year in the Orange Bowl, where you'd think Miami would have had the significant edge (a virtual home game!) and the Badgers won there, 34-24 as six-point favorites. Lastly, Miami announced yday that it will be going back to Malik Rosier as the starting QB, as opposed to N'Kosi Perry, who had started the final three regular season games.

Wisconsin seems like the popular side here, but this Badgers team wasn't quite up to par this year. They entered 2018 as a National Title Contender and had a schedule that appeared tailor-made for an unbeaten run. Instead, they lost five games and didn't even win their division. In three of the five losses, they allowed 30+ points. Overall, this year's defense was simply not what we are used to seeing out of Madison, a theme for this game. But on offense, I look for the Badgers to have plenty of success running the ball in this game. Behind one of the top offensive lines in the nation, they'll feed RB Jonathan Taylor, who led all RB's in rushing yardage this season, averaging 166 per game. Miami is w/o its best run stopper - Gerald Harris -for this game.

There will probably be an overreaction in the marketplace to Rosier starting in place of Perry for Miami. For our purposes, the move is great. The Under was 3-0 in Perry's three starts. Overall, Miami has gone Under in its last six games. But the Over was 5-1 in their first six games, all w/ Rosier under center, so don't fall victim to any recency bias. Wisconsin will also be w/o one of its top defenders, LB Ryan Connelly, here. These teams blew past the total in LY's Orange Bowl and are more than capable of doing it again here w/ an even lower number. I think the cold weather is overrated in handicapping this game as it shouldn't stop either offense from scoring. 8* Over Miami/Wisconsin 

10* Over Broncos/Raiders (8:15 ET): Nothing will be on the line Monday night (X-mas Eve) except pride in the AFC West as these two longstanding rivals meet for the second time in 2018. Neither the Broncos nor Raiders made the playoffs LY and both are already out of contention for this season. For Oakland, they've been out of contention for some time as Jon Gruden's first year back at the helm has not gone well, to say the least. The Silver and Black are 3-11 SU and have become a total rebuilding project, although one now has to wonder exactly WHERE that rebuilding might take place. Tonight could be the final NFL game EVER in Oakland as the team's immediate future is in serious turmoil w/ the city suing the team over its decision to bolt for Las Vegas. Spirits could be high in the stadium Monday night and will have little to do w/ the holidays. 

Denver at least improved some this season. They, in fact, were even in serious playoff contention up until two weeks ago. But B2B losses to the 49ers and Browns (were favored in both games) have them at 6-8 SU. This is a team that last month beat the Chargers and Steelers in successive games. So it's no surprise that they're favored again this week, especially considering they beat the Raiders all the way back in Week 2, 20-19. That game saw the Broncos rally back from a 12-point deficit. They did not cover though as 5.5-pt chalk. If you're looking for a storyline from the Denver side going into this game - HC Vance Joseph's future is (and should be) very much in doubt. 

The Broncos stumbling each of the L2 wks can probably be tied to the fact they lost a key player on both sides of the ball - WR Emmanuel Sanders and CB Chris Harris, Jr. The defense has remained fine, but the offense has scored a grand total of just 30 pts. The Broncos' last six games have all stayed Under as have their L4 meetings w/ the Raiders. Oakland has the 4th lowest scoring offense in the league. But despite all that you've just read, I believe this MNF total is too low and we're going to see more of a shootout between two teams that have little (but pride) to play for. There have been only three Denver games this year w/ a total of 43 pts or less and the Over is 3-0 (Under is 11-0 in all other games!). The Raiders' defense gives up almost 30 PPG and the Over is 2-0 when the total is 43 pts or lower in their games this season. 10* Over Broncos/Raiders

10* Over Bucs/Cowboys (1:00 ET): Before the season started, Tampa Bay is a team whose games I projected to be among the highest scoring in the league this year. I saw plenty of potential with the offense - no matter who the QB was - while the defense looked pretty suspect. For the first half of the season, high scoring is precisely how Bucs games played out. The first five games, and seven of the first eight, went Over the total. It didn't matter if it was Jameis Winston or Fitzmagic at QB. But something has changed over the last month. The offense has kind of gone into the toilet and the L4 games have all stayed Under the total. But the defense remains pretty bad, particularly on the road. This week, they're facing an offense that can absolutely exploit them. Take the Over here.

Now, when I say the Bucs are facing an offense that can exploit them, you wouldn't guess the Cowboys based on their performance LW. For the first time since '03, they were shutout as in 23-0 by the Colts. It was a shocking result for a Dallas team that came into that game riding a 5-game SU and ATS win streak. The offense had been pretty much rolling behind QB Dak Prescott, particularly since WR Amari Cooper came on board. RB Ezekiel Elliott (leads NFL in rush yds) was doing his usual damage as well. But the Colts defense held them scoreless to less than 300 total yards. One thing to consider, however, is that the Indy D plays a lot of zone. The Prescott-Cooper combination had largely been excelling against man to man looks. 

Definitely look for the Dallas offense to bounce back this week. Tampa Bay allows a frightening 37.0 PPG on the road this season, which is why they're 1-6 SU in such games. They are also still 28th in YPG allowed. This Bucs' defense plays a lot of man to man as well, so we should see more favorable matchups for Cooper in the Cowboys passing game. While a TB offense that has scored just 26 total pts the L2 wks is going up against a tough Dallas defense, they do get back WR Desean Jackson this week. Note that the Over is 13-3 in the Bucs' last 16 road games and 5-1 in the Cowboys' past six home games. 10* Over Bucs/Cowboys

10* Under Buffalo/Troy (7:00 ET): The Dollar General Bowl is a bit of a tough assignment for Buffalo. Not only are they playing a virtual road game (Troy to Mobile is less than a 3 hr drive), but they're still trying to get over the pain of blowing a 19-point lead to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game. That 30-29 loss definitely still stings, but the Bulls still have a chance here to record their 11th victory of the season, which would be a single-season record for the program. This is a matchup of two of the better Group of 5 teams and I don't think motivation will be an issue for either side. Thus, this won't be one of those bowl games without any defense. I'm on the Under.

Troy is going for its third straight 10-win season, which would be a first in the history of the program. Rather quietly, the Trojans have won 20 of their last 24 games, including a 2-0 mark in bowl under HC Neal Brown. But the offense didn't exactly have the most explosive finish to the regular season, scoring a combined 22 points in the final two games. The Troy offense is operating w/ a backup QB, Sawyer Smith, who took over for the injured Kaleb Barker in the middle of the season. In those final two regular season games, the Trojans' offense gained just 220 and 232 total yards. One of those games was against Texas State, at home!

What Troy can and will lean on here is an excellent defense. The Trojans give up just 21.2 PPG and that number drops considerably when you take out the 59 they allowed at Boise State in the season opener. Since that season opener, they have not allowed more than 27 in any game. They've allowed 21 or fewer in 10 of 12 games. We know Buffalo has an explosive offensive, but Northern Illinois shut them down in the 2nd half of the MAC Title Game and that may be the blueprint Troy needed for stopping the Bulls here. Buffalo is no slouch defensively either as they allow just 24.7 PPG. I look for this to be one of the lower scoring games of the entire bowl season. 10* Under Buffalo/Troy

10* Over Marshall/USF (8:00 ET): I spent a good portion of this season railing against how fradulent South Florida's record was and it turned out that I couldn't have been more correct. At one point, the Bulls were 7-0 SU and ranked in the top 25. I thought the ranking was ridiculous as they were shockingly low in my power rankings. Sure enough, they dropped their final five regular season games, all by double digits. A team that was ranked and unbeaten in late October finished outside of the top 90 (!) in my personal power rankings, making them one of my lowest rated teams to make a bowl. As much as I'd love to fade them again here (I was 5-0 ATS fading them in the regular season), the Gasparilla Bowl is a home game for them (played in Tampa) and I think there's a chance they might "show up" Friday, at least offensively. 

Marshall is 11-2 SU all-time in bowl games. That's the highest win percentage for any team in the country w/ at least five bowl appearances. They are 5-0 SU and ATS under current HC Doc Holliday. They went 8-4 SU in the regular season, led by a defense that was outstanding, especially against the run. The Thundering Herd didn't allow a single 100-yd rusher in those 12 games and allows just 2.9 yards per carry. However, that stop unit did begin to wane late in the regular season. They allowed 190 rush yds in a narrow escape over FIU and then were shredded for 41 points by Va Tech in a game that wasn't scheduled until two weeks prior (Va Tech needed a 12th game to become bowl eligible and both they and Marshall had games postponed early in the year by Hurricane Florence). 

The offenses that the Marshall defense shut down were generally pretty bad. South Florida averages 29.2 PPG, but was scoring far more before QB Blake Barnett got hurt late in the year, causing him to miss two of the final three regular season games. Hopefully, Barnett will be able to play here. Regardless, the Bulls have a new playcaller for the bowl ( TE coach Justin Burke) as former OC Sterlin Gilbert bolted for McNeese State. During USF's 7-0 start, the offense went over 600 yds three different times. But perhaps the biggest key to this Over play is how bad the Bulls' defense is. It surrendered 442.2 YPG and was particularly brutal against the run. Six of USF's last seven opponents ran for at least 220 yards w/ three of those going for at least 322 (including UConn!).  10* Over Marshall/USF

10* Under Titans/Giants (1:00 ET): Titans' games have generally been low-scoring this year, but the Over is a perfect 3-0 the L3 weeks. Last Thursday, they beat Jacksonville 30-9. That's a low-scoring game, but the total closed at 36.5, which is very low by 2018 standards. In fact, each of the L3 wks have seen low totals for Titans games. Against the Jets, they came from behind to win 26-22 (total was 43.5) and that was a game where they allowed an early defensive TD. Despite the recent rash of Overs, the Titans neither score nor allow 20 PPG. The total is a bit higher this week & I'm on the Under.

The Giants' offense has also come alive recently. They've scored 30 or more in three of the last four games after only topping that threshold once in their previous 42 games! Having RB Saquon Barkley definitely helps, but so too did facing the horrific Bucs defense as well as a Redskins team that has been absolutely besieged by injuries. Eli Manning is still washed up in my opinion (B2B wks w/ less than 200 pass yds) and it's very likely that Odell Beckham Jr doesn't play against this week. Facing a superior defense in the Titans, I look for the Giants to also have a downturn on offense this week.

Tennessee lost its starting TE and a right tackle last week. This is an offense that averages a scant 16.4 PPG on the road. That's the fourth lowest such average in the league, ahead of only the Bills, Raiders and Cardinals. The only other time this year that the Titans scored 30+, they came back the following week and scored only 10 (on the road). They've topped 17 pts only once in the L5 road games. Meanwhile, the G-men actually average fewer PPG at home than they do on the road. The Under is 9-1 in their last 10 tries off a SU win by 14+ points. The Titans allow only 19.5 PPG. 10* Under Titans/Giants

8* Over North Texas/Utah State (2:00 ET): The build for the 2018 New Mexico Bowl centers as much around who is/isn't coaching as anything else. Seth Litrell has decided to remain at North Texas after flirting w/ the Kansas State job. Utah State isn't so lucky as they lost HC Matt Wells to Texas Tech. (Former Aggies HC Gary Andersen will replace him, returning to Logan after leaving for Wisconsin six years ago and then a failed stint at Oregon State. But it will be USU assistant Frank Maile coaching the bowl game). Let's not let the respective coaching situations overshadow the growth of these two programs. Even though this spread is one of the largest of the non-CFP games, these are two of the best non-P5 teams in America. I expect a high-scoring affair in Albuquerque come Saturday afternoon.

North Texas started the season strong. They were 6-1 SU midway through October and had a win over an SEC school (Arkansas). But a 2-3 SU finish (also 0-5 ATS) resulted in the Mean Green not making the C-USA Champ Game for 2nd straight year. They averaged 36.4 PPG and 472.8 YPG on offense, both of which were top 20 nationally. However, the Under went 11-1 in their 12 regular season games, making them the top Under team in the entire country. That hasn't stopped oddsmakers from installing a pretty high total for this matchup w/ Utah State. That's because the Aggies bring in an offense the likes of which this Mean Green defense hasn't seen all season. 

Utah State averaged 47.2 PPG during the regular season. Only two teams scored more - Oklahoma and Alabama. So being in the top three is pretty impressive company. The Aggies lost only two games in the regular season, their first (in OT at Michigan State) and last (33-24 at Boise State). In between, they won 10 straight games. While Wells is gone, the offense he built is still in place and should continue scoring at will. Unlike UNT, the Over hit more often than not for USU, going 8-3-1. So it's one of the top Over teams vs. the top Under team. My read is that both offenses are going to have their way here and we'll see little in the way of defense. Utah State plays at a fast tempo and North Texas is unlike most opponents in that they will keep pace thanks to QB Mason Fine, who threw for 300 yds and 2 TDs in all but two games this year. The Mean Green have one of the top passing attacks in the entire country. 8* Over North Texas/Utah State

10* Under Vikings/Seahawks (8:15 ET): These teams have not met since the infamous 10-9 Seattle playoff win in 2016 (Blair Walsh game). It should be a "playoff-like atmosphere" Monday night in the Pacific Northwest with both the Vikings and Seahawks looking to get back to the postseason. Seattle is a hot team right now. They've won three straight to get to 7-5 SU and while winning the division is no longer a possibility (Rams have already clinched), the Wild Card is looking more and more like a distinct possibility. Minnesota is in a slightly more precarious position at 6-5-1 SU. This is the second leg of a pretty brutal set of back to back road games. Last week they were in New England, now they have to go cross-country to one of the more challenging venues in the league. 

The Over has hit in each of Seattle's last four games. They scored a ton of points last week, but that was a little misleading as the offense gained just 331 total yards. Believe it or not, they were actually outgained (-119) by the 49ers in the 43-16 win. The key was forcing three turnovers, one of them a late "pick-six." Not saying that the result was likely to be any different, but the Seahawks also scored on a number of "short" drives (had a 20-yd TD drive). As good as Russell Wilson is, Seattle's passing attack isn't exactly lighting it up of late. Four of the last five games have seen them finish w/ 205 or less passing yards. Wilson only attempted 17 passes last week, completing 11. This is an offense that likes to run the ball, which means fewer possessions and a running clock.

There's been some hand-wringing over Seattle's secondary recently as they let a backup QB (Nick Mullens) throw for 400+ yards last week. But despite allowing a high completion percentage, they're not giving up "the big play." Considering the loss of the famed "Legion of Boom," I think this group has performed just fine this season. I think tonight's game is going to be emblematic of what we've seen from the Seattle secondary recently. Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins is completing a career-high 71% of his pass attempts this year, but only at 6.7 yds per attempt. Cousins will get his completions in this game, but they'll do minimal damage. The Vikings offense has been held to an average of 18.0 PPG the L3 wks and has not gone over 24 in any of the L5 games. 10* Under Vikings/Seahawks

10* Under Eagles/Cowboys (4:25 ET): These NFC East rivals met four weeks ago w/ the Cowboys winning 27-20 as 7.5-pt road dogs. That result signaled a clear change in the direction of the division. Dallas hasn't lost since (4-0 SU/ATS L4 games) and is now in first place at 7-5 SU. The Eagles seemed dead & buried after taking a humiliating 48-7 loss down in New Orleans (worst loss EVER by a reigning SB champ), but they've now bounced back w/ B2B wins and covers. They're just a game back at 6-6 SU, so there's really no downplaying just how important this game really is. I look for a tight, low-scoring affair and am on the Under. 

Philly has seen the Under cash in five of its last six games. The exception was vs. the Cowboys, a game where they both gained and allowed 400+ total yards. The team looks a lot better right now, on both sides of the ball, particularly the offense w/ RB Darren Sproles back and WR Golden Tate in the fold. But this will be just the second "true" road game (excludes London) for the Eagles since October 11th. The other one was against the Saints when they were held to just seven points. This is an offense averaging only 21.5 PPG on the year. They're facing one of the top defenses this week, so don't be surprised if Carson Wentz and company really struggle in this one. 

The Dallas defense is legit. They allow only 18.6 PPG and just held the high-powered Saints to only 10 in this building last Thursday. The Saints failed to gain even 200 total yards in that TNF upset. At the same time, the Cowboys hardly have the most explosive offense. They scored only 13 pts vs. New Orleans and have been held below 20 in three of the last six games. On average, Cowboys' games are among the lowest scoring in the entire league, seeing just 39.2 points per contest. Only the Titans and Jaguars (who played Thursday night) are involved in lower scoring games, on average. The Under is 15-6 in Dallas' last 21 games overall. 10* Under Eagles/Cowboys

analysis soon

10* Under Jaguars/Titans (8:20 ET): These AFC South rivals are similar in that both are capable of playing outstanding defense while at the same time being pretty inept offensively. Even in a 26-22 affair last week, the unheralded Titans' defense played well. The Jets were spotted an early 16-0 lead in that one and while it will be Marcus Mariota and the offense that will get the credit, it was really the defense that deserves most of the credit for that come from behind victory. Note the Jets' only TD came from the defense, off a Mariota INT. From there, the Titans allowed only five FG's (one on a negative yardage drive) and 280 total yds. Of course, Jacksonville was involved in the lowest scoring game of this NFL season last week, a 6-0 win over the Colts.

That was quite the defensive performance from the Jags, who were the first team ever to shutout Andrew Luck. Luck and the Colts offense came in red hot too; 4th in the league in scoring while averaging 34.6 PPG during a five-game win streak. Of course, it almost went for naught as the Cody Kessler "led" offense produced very little - just two field goals and 211 total yds. Kessler threw for only 150 yards in earning his first ever win as a NFL starter. Excluding a kneel down at the end of the 1st half, the Jags' other 10 drives resulted in two field goals, seven punts and a fumble. I wouldn't expect much more this week from Kessler, whose only other starting experience as a pro came w/ a Cleveland team that went 1-15 SU in 2016. This is a Jags offense that has been held to single digits four times this year. Even w/ RB Fournette back, they just aren't capable of much.

One of those times was in a 9-6 loss to Tennessee back in Week 3. Looking back, that loss begat the team's eventual 2018 downfall. Last week was just the second win in the L10 games. Considering what went down in the season's first meeting (w/ Blake Bortles starting instead of Kessler), I don't see a Titans defense that permits just 20.4 PPG, having any difficulty stopping Jacksonville again. At home, the Titans are even stingier, giving up just 18.6 PPG. In terms of offense, we're dealing w/ two of the lowest scoring teams in the league here as Tennessee ranks 28th in PPG (18.4) while Jacksonville is 30th (16.9). Neither offense had more than 250 total yds in the first meeting. 10* Under Jaguars/Titans

10* Under Broncos/Bengals (1:00 ET): Something is going to have to give here as Denver has gone Under in four straight games while Cincinnati has gone Over in its last four. While many are ready to "tout" the Broncos as a "sleeper" playoff team, I though last week's 24-17 upset of Pittsburgh (at home) was highly misleading when you consider they were +4 in turnover margin and also gave up 500+ yards. That latter number is concerning, but instead of facing a Ben Roethlisberger-led Steelers offense, this week it will be a Bengals offense quarterbacked by backup Jeff Driskell. That's a much better matchup for a defense that has allowed 22 pts or fewer four of the last five games to begin with ... and the only exception in that five-game stretch was Kansas City!

Cincinnati may have the worst defense in the entire league right now. They have given up the most yards and the most points, so the point seems rather inarguable. Last week, they made rookie QB Baker Mayfield look like a multi-time Pro Bowler in giving up 35 points to the Browns in less than 20 minutes. This Bengals defense has been absolutely shredded over the last month or so, but be aware they've had to face some of the league's top offenses: Kansas City, New Orleans and even Tampa Bay (who is #1 in yards per game). The performance last week was terrible, but note they shut the Browns out for almost the entire second half. Since a Week 1 victory over the Seahawks, the Denver offense has gone over 24 pts in only one game and that was against lowly Arizona.

The Bengals get WR A.J. Green back this week, but any positive that would normally bring is mitigated by the fact QB Andy Dalton is out. Like I said earlier, Denver's defense has allowed 22 pts or less in four of its last five games. The Broncos' offense, which as alluded to above isn't that great to begin with, has been held to 16 pts or less in two of its three early (1 PM ET) Sunday games this year. (The team is 0-3 SU in such games). I look for this to be a surprisingly low-scoring game as the Bengals have a backup QB and the Denver offense has failed to top 325 yards in B2B weeks. 10* Under Broncos/Bengals

8* Minnesota (8:20 ET): One of these teams is going to lose in primetime for a second straight week. For the Vikings, it would be a second straight Sunday night loss as they fell in this same spot to the Bears last week. Green Bay lost last Thursday up in Seattle, a game they actually led most of the way. Of course, the teams could always tie here like they did in Week 2. Though the final score was 29-29 at Lambeau back in September, I don't think there was any doubt as to which team was better. Minnesota had a 480-351 edge in total yardage and outgained the Pack 7.2 to 5.0 on a per play basis. Yes, Packers fans will argue that the late roughing the passer call on Clay Matthews was bogus (and it was). But the Vikings missed two field goals in overtime and were the better team that day. They've also been the slightly better team all season. 

I really haven't been too impressed with the Packers this season. Their only two wins by more than a field came against the Dolphins and Bills, both at home. The other two wins, over Chicago and San Francisco, both required comebacks of the more improbable variety. They have not won a road game this season, now 0-5 SU and giving up 29.8 PPG. They haven't beaten the Vikings in the last two season, though they were w/o Aaron Rodgers for 1.5 games last year. With three tough road losses occurring over the last four weeks, this is a bad spot for a team that doesn't profile as much better than mediocre. 

Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is now 4-12 SU all-time in primetime games after LW's 25-20 loss in Chicago. But as you know, primetime games usually involve top teams. Minnesota's three losses this year have been to the Rams, Saints and Bears, the top three teams in the NFC, all in primetime. Cousins' poor record in these "big games" figures to be the prevailing narrative heading into this one. But Green Bay simply is not at the level of those aforementioned teams. I think that the Vikings should be favored by more than a field goal here as I view them as the better team. Their defense is stronger at home where it yields only 19.8 PPG. Green Bay's offense averages only 21.6 PPG on the road. 8* Minnesota

10* Under Giants/Eagles (1:00 ET): The Eagles looked positively inept last week in losing 48-7 to the Saints. Sure, they are really beat up in the secondary right now and while there's never a "good time" to face the Saints, turns out that doing so w/o your 3-5 best players on the backend is not ideal. Still, that's no excuse for Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense to manage only 7 points and less than 300 total yards in a building that's certainly seen the visitor score plenty through the years. My guess is that the Eagles' defense is going to be a lot better this week, at home and not facing the Saints. This defense has consistently been better at home since the start of last season. The home vs. road splits are pretty striking as at home they're allowing only 19.8 PPG as opposed to 26.4 on the road. 

The Giants scored 38 points last week and that's about as common as a blue moon. But Big Blue was facing one of the worst defenses in the entire league as Tampa Bay is 28th in yards allowed and 32nd (last) in scoring. To sa, there should be a Giants' decline this week, at least offensively, is putting it mildly. It was actually the second time this year that the G-Men scored 31 or more, but they've also been held to 18 pts or fewer in half of their games plus just 20 in one more. QB Eli Manning is over the hill, so it matters little that he had Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley a his disposal. Before scoring 31 in a losing effort at Carolina last month, this Giants offense had gone 37 consecutive games, almost 2 1/2 seasons, without scoring 30 pts. 

These teams already played once, in New Jersey obviously, and the Eagles rolled to a 34-13 victory. They jumped on the Giants early w/ two quick touchdowns on short fields, one off a turnover and the other coming on a long punt return. The secondary issue still remains for Philly as they could be without their top FIVE cornerbacks. But Manning has not thrown for many yards his last two games despite a high completion percentage. If the GIANTS' defense can hold Wentz and company in check, then there's no doubt in my mind that this turns into a low-scoring game. The last six meetings have all found a way to go Over the total, but this is the one that bucks the trend. The Under is 4-1 in Eagles home games this year. 10* Under Giants/Eagles

10* Under Rice/La Tech (7:00 ET): Well, it's official. With last week's home loss to UTEP, you have to consider Rice to be the worst team in the country. The Owls are 1-9 SU, their one win coming by three points (in the season opener) against FCS Prairie View A&M. Since then, they've lost every game by at least 14 points w/ one exception. Last week's loss to UTEP. But they trailed the Miners 34-3 early in the second half before storming back w/ a furious rally. Keep in mind that UTEP is a team that had lost its previous 20 games. So now it's Rice w/ the longest active losing streak in the country. It's not likely to end in the next two weeks either, which will be spent in the state of Louisiana. There's a game at LSU, but not before this one in Ruston.

La Tech doesn't exactly come into this week in fine form. They were blown out last week at Mississippi State, 45-3. Though they likely didn't expect to win (were 23-point underdogs), that result still had to be disappointing nonetheless. It was their third loss of the season, though the C-USA West Division is still technically in play. It doesn't help that the Bulldogs lost to UAB earlier in the year, another game where they were held to single digits. But they'll certainly have to win out, a possibility, but they also need two losses from UAB down the stretch as well. It can't be overstated how last week was clearly La Tech's worst game of the season. It was their lowest scoring game in a decade. The defense allowed Miss State to score on every 1st half offensive possession. The good news is they're facing a much weaker opponent this week. 

Even as bad as Rice is, this spread is high enough that I'm going to abstain from making a play on the side. But the total really intrigues me. Rice only averages 19.6 PPG to begin with, but what's really interesting is that they are top 15 in the country in time of possession. Yet they are 123rd in scoring. Their defense is bad, giving up 38.5 PPG. But can La Tech take full advantage? The Bulldogs are averaging only 25.2 PPG and are remarkably inefficient themselves given they are also top 50 in the country in terms of TOP. I assume La Tech will play this one fairly conservatively given they head out on the road again next week (at Southern Miss). 10* Under Rice/La Tech

10* Under Panthers/Steelers (8:15 ET): Finally, a good Thursday night game! Carolina has won three in a row and five out of six to get to 6-2 SU on the year. Pittsburgh has won and covered four straight to get to 5-2-1 SU. If you're a regular client of mine, then you might recall I had the Over on Carolina's game last week vs. Tampa Bay. That game went Over (a high total) by the third quarter. But it was also at home where the team is a perfect 5-0 SU and averaging 31.6 points per game. On the road, the Panthers have a losing record (1-2 SU) and are averaging just 20.7 PPG. So I don't expect an offensive repeat from them this week in Pittsburgh where they'll find a Steelers team that has not allowed more than 21 points in any game during its own win streak. Take the Under. 

Carolina has one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league. They've run the ball 31 or more times in five games. Not surprisingly, two of the three exceptions were losses. The problem w/ such an approach here is that Pittsburgh has not allowed 100 yds rushing since Week 2. They've allowed less than 75 yds rushing in five of the past six games. The result of that is the Steelers now rank 6th in the league at stopping the run. Carolina would face even more problems if it's true C Ryan Kalil can't go. This being a short week obviously makes it less likely than Kalil will play. 

The Steelers will also be up against a top 10 rush defense and obviously still don't have Le'Veon Bell. Carolina has allowed 101 yds rushing or less in all but two games. Ben Roethlisberger and company have averaged 31.25 PPG during the four-game win streak, but I would be shocked if they hit that benchmark here. They scored just 23 pts last week, granted against Baltimore, but Carolina scored 36 pts on that same defense the week prior. For the record, Pittsburgh is 17-8 Under when off an ATS win. Note that prior to last week, there had not been a total above 50 points for any Carolina game this season. 10* Under Panthers/Steelers

10* Over Titans/Cowboys (8:15 ET): We've got a really low total here on MNF, probably one of the lowest for any games this NFL season. Judging by the amount of scoring we've seen league-wide in 2018, I think it's far too risky to bet this game Under. Too much can happen in a game, whether it be a defensive or special teams touchdown. Both Tennessee and Dallas are off their bye weeks, so both offenses have had plenty of time to gameplan here. The "hype" for this game will surround WR Amari Cooper making his Cowboys debut (recently traded from the Raiders). While I don't think Cooper's impact will be substantial, his presence can only help a Dallas receiving corps - that on paper - was among the very worst in the league. Meanwhile, a Titans' offense averaging only 15.1 PPG (30th) has to start improving, right? Take the Over.

Even though Dallas is thought to be pretty deficient through the air, I believe this Tennessee defense can be had. Two weeks ago against the Chargers, the Titans surrendered pass plays of 75 and 55 yards. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, not really thought of as a great downfield thrower, does have seven pass plays of 20+ yards already this season. Cooper will draw attention from the Titans' secondary, potentially opening up chances for the other Cowboys' receivers to make plays. You then, of course, have the Dallas run game w/ Ezekiel Elliott. Though held in check on the ground two weeks ago at Washington, the Cowboys have rushed for an average of 176 YPG in their three home games, at 5.2 yards per carry. 

The Titans have had two horrid offensive games this year, but those came against two of the better defenses in the league, Jacksonville and Baltimore. While this team has yet to score more than 20 points in regulation this season, I give them an excellent shot at doing so tonight. They did have nearly 400 total yds against the Chargers in London w/ a 23-14 edge in first downs. My one concern from that game, however, was the defense allowing 7.8 yards per play. With the 30th scoring offense, but 3rd best scoring defense, Titans' games are pretty easily the lowest scoring - on average - in the league at just 33.2 PPG. But I'll call for this one to "sneak" Over as I feel the number is just too low. 10* Over Titans/Cowboys

10* Over Bucs/Panthers (1:00 ET): Tampa Bay has gone Over in all but one game this year (6-1). Ironically, the one Under was a game (vs. Cleveland) that went the distance in overtime! I can't say that I'm surprised by the Bucs being such a strong Over team. I had their offense improving while also calling for the defense to regress. Thus far, that's exactly what has taken place. The offense has gone from 20.9 PPG (18th) last season to 28.7 (7th) in '18. Meanwhile, the defense has gone from allowing 23.9 PPG (t22nd) to 33.3 (last). While the defensive numbers are obviously terrible, the offense - specifically QB - has been the biggest story in Tampa. The QB carousel is back to Ryan Fitzpatrick after he was benched after Week 4. You'll recall Fitzpatrick was only the starter initially b/c Jameis Winston was suspended. Winston went from suspended to "ineffective," so it's back to Fitzmagic we go.

Carolina just hung 36 on the best defense in the league, Baltimore. Sure they were helped out by some turnovers, but only one offense before them was able to even score more than 24 against the Ravens. In their last three home games, the Panthers have scored 31, 33 and 36 points. All three games went Over. I have to say that I'm surprised by Carolina's success this year as I definitely had them regressing from LY's 11-5 record. But w/ them starting 5-2 this year, I may have to eat my words. Consider that all of last season, they outscored opponents by only 36 points. This year, they're already at a +26 point differential. If there is one thing they should be concerned about though, it's a defense allowing 6.0 yards per play. 

The only two offenses that TB has held under 30 pts this season are: Cleveland and Philadelphia w/o Carson Wentz. I see no reason why the Panthers can't hit that benchmark this week. At the same time, I expect the Panthers defense to also give up their fair share of yards and points. They've hardly faced a difficult slate of opposing offenses to this point. Tampa Bay is actually averaging 467.9 YPG overall and is - by far and away - the top passing offense in the league at 376 YPG (58 YPG more than the #2 team). Fitzpatrick, while turnover prone, is no more turnover prone than Winston. You'll recall he started the season w/ B2B 400+ yard, 4 TD games before coming back down to Earth and being benched. But he almost led an improbable comeback LW in Cincinnati, throwing two 4Q touchdowns. I think you can tell which way I'm going here. 10* Over Bucs/Panthers

10* Under Troy/South Alabama (8:00 ET): Troy is clearly the better team here, but two things give me pause. One is the performance in their last game. Playing for the 1st time w/o QB Kaleb Barker (out for the year), they lost outright to Liberty and scored only 16 points in doing so. The second is their overall play on the road. While this team did cash for me in an early season upset at Nebraska, they pulled that upset on the back of a key special teams play and Cornhuskers' turnovers. The Trojans' offense, with Barker in at QB, gained only 243 total yards in that contest. The only two subsequent road games were LW's upset loss at Liberty and an eight-point win at LA Monroe. So asking Troy to win by double digits on the road, with a backup QB, seems like a lot. 

South Alabama has only two wins on the season. One came against Texas State, one of the worst teams in all of FBS. The other came last week against a FCS school, Alabama State. That win over Alabama State also marked the first time all season that a South Alabama game stayed Under the total. Playing a FCS program obviously helped as the Jaguars turned in - by far - their best defensive performance of the season, holding their opponent to just 7 points. This is a defense that has already allowed 48 or more points FOUR times this season. But there's a catch. All four times were on the road. The defense has played a little better here in Mobile, holding teams to an average of just 22.7 PPG. That's heavily influenced by last week's result, but the Jaguars get a big break this week in facing a backup QB. 

Last year's "Battle for the Belt" (that's what this rivalry is called) resulted in a huge upset w/ South Alabama winning 19-8 as 16-pt road underdogs. Even I, who had South Alabama, was quite stunned by that result. Keep in mind that the Jaguars were facing a 4-year starting QB in Brandon Silvers and they still held the Troy offense to less than 300 total yards. Now they get to face a backup in Sawyer Smith, who threw for only 135 total yds in the upset loss at Liberty two weeks ago. After the 1st quarter of that game, the Trojans' offense was held to just three field goals and less than 200 total yards. South Alabama's first six games may have all gone Over, but this one has "Under" written all over it. 10* Under Troy/South Alabama

10* Under 49ers/Packers (8:15 ET): Both of these teams certainly played well enough to win last week, but neither did. San Francisco outgained Arizona 447-220, but lost 28-18 thanks to a -5 turnover margin. It was a similar story for Green Bay, who was +257 in total yardage (521-264), but lost to Detroit 31-23 due to a combination of a -3 turnover margin and kicker Mason Crosby going an unconscionable 1 for 5 on field goal attempts. So both teams definitely left plenty of points "on the field." That sounds like a reason to possibly lean Over the next time out, but I don't see either team moving the ball as effectively Monday night. Both defenses surprisingly rank in the top 10 in efficiency.  I'm on the Under. 

Green Bay is just 2-2-1 SU and the big story for them has been Aaron Rodgers' knee. Now Rodgers' knee didn't really seem to be bothering him last week as the Packers offense didn't punt a single time on their 11 possessions. But the former MVP did fumble twice for just the third time in his 14-year career. Protection has been an issue w/ Rodgers getting sacked 16 times and maybe that can be pinned on the knee injury. Yet another issue has been injuries at the receiver position. Both Geronimo Allen and Randall Cobb are listed as questionable and w/ the bye week looming, one has to wonder if it would be the "right move" to hold them out. The Packers have not scored 30 pts in a game this season and average just 23.0 PPG, 18th overall. 

San Francisco (1-4) doesn't want to hear about injuries right now as few teams have been hit harder than them in that department. QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been lost for the season, leaving the uninspiring CJ Beathard at the helm. The Niners have done a surprising amount of scoring w/ Beathard starting, but look for that to subside. Eight offensive players missed practice time this week, a group that includes three starting linemen, three receivers a tight end and a running back. So it could be a real "skeleton crew" lining up at Lambeau Field Monday night. I don't look for much from the Niners this week and this simply isn't the same Packers' offense as we've been accustomed to seeing through the years. 10* Under 49ers/Packers 

10* Under Eagles/Giants (8:20 ET): The Super Bowl Champion Eagles appear wounded. They've dropped B2B games and already equaled LY's number of losses w/ three. They're lucky to be in a pretty poor division (NFC East), which includes this week's opponent, the Giants. Philadelphia has yet to play a single NFC East game, so they still very much can control their own destiny. So far, all five games they've played have been decided by six points or less. But the reality is that last week's 23-21 loss to the Vikings (NFC Champ Game rematch) was not as close as the final score indicated. They were down 20-3 early in the second half and more than 200 of their 364 total yards came after that point. They were victimized by an early fumble return for touchdown, so their defense didn't play that poorly. 

Going back to last year, the Eagles defense has performed significantly better at home than on the road. They are on the road this week, but the Giants hardly have an offense that can take any kind of advantage. The G-Men actually scored 30+ pts last week, but of course still found a way to lose (to Carolina), this time being a Graham Gano 63-yard FG as time expired. This is a team that did not score 30 or more points in a single game last season ... or the year before that (2016) for that matter. In their previous three losses, the Giants scored only 15, 13 and 18 points. QB Eli Manning is washed up and over the hill, which is why WR Odell Beckham Jr is complaining so much. I'm not sure why the Giants have so much invested in the RB/WR positions when the QB play is so bad.

I think that it's a lock the Giants score fewer points this week. Last week snapped a streak of 37 straight games w/o scoring 30 or more. Both games vs. Philadelphia went Over last year as have each of the last five meetings. But this one should be a more low-scoring affair. Though Carson Wentz has good numbers in his first three starts, he's not making as many big plays. The Eagles' offense also just lost RB Jay Ajayi. The Giants' defense, while not great, should be able to keep them in this game. One area the G-men may have to worry about though is special teams as kicker Aldrick Rosas has not practiced this week. 10* Under Eagles/Giants

10* Under Redskins/Saints (8:20 ET): With the world focused on Drew Brees setting a NFL record, the Over is going to be a popular bet Monday night. But the oddsmakers know this and have set a high O/U mark for the Redskins and Saints. Washington should be well-prepared for this game as they are coming off a bye. They're 2-1 and last time we saw them was Week 3 as as home dog vs. Green Bay. I took them and the points in that one and was rewarded w/ a nice 31-17 outright victory. This is a team whose games have generally been low-scoring as they are averaging only 21.3 PPG while allowing only 14.7. Take the Under. 

As per usual, the Saints are scoring a lot of points. They average 34.2 points per game and have scored 40 or more twice. Last week was the first time this season that they had to take their act outdoors and they still scored 33 in a win over the Giants. They've now won three straight since that Week 1 head-scratcher against the Bucs where they gave up 48 points. The defense has faced two bad offenses the last three weeks and allowed just 18 pts to both the Browns and Giants. Washington can score more than those two teams, but I wouldn't look for them to get a whole lot more. 

Brees is all but assured to set the NFL record for passing yards in this one as he only need 201 yards to pass Peyton Manning. Will Brees be "pressing" to throw the ball and get the record though? That could be a factor. What the Saints should do is lean on the run as Mark Ingram returns from suspension for this game, joining Alvin Kamara for what is an outstanding backfield tandem. The Saints will "get theirs" on offense here, but remember they were held to just 21 pts in their last home game by the Browns. I don't look for them to hit 30 tonight. As for Washington, with Alex Smith at QB, we know they are going to be a conservative offense and I look for them to try and play "keep away" from Brees and the Saints. 10* Under Redskins/Saints

8* Under Colts/Patriots (8:20 ET): As per usual, the demise of the Patriots was greatly exaggerated. In a rare spot off B2B losses, they absolutely tattooed the unbeaten Dolphins last week, winning 38-7 as a 6.5-pt home favorite. All now seems well in Foxboro where the Pats are playing again this week, Thursday night hosting the 1-3 Colts. Indy made it look interesting LW vs. Houston, but the reality was they were down 28-10 in the second half of that game. Andrew Luck was able to force OT, but it was not to be as HC Frank Reich gambled and came up short on a 4th down call, which then set up the game winning field goal for the Texans. Can you believe the last time the Colts beat the Patriots was 2009? That's unlikely to change here, but the large pointspread had dissuaded me from making a play on a side. 

The Colts have ruled out seven players for this game. The most notable among them is WR T.Y. Hilton, leaving Ryan Grant and Chester Rogers as the team's starting receivers. Yikes. The offense did put up plenty of points last week and Luck threw for 437 yards (on 62 attempts!), but don't look for that to happen here. The previous two weeks saw the Colts gain just 281 and 209 total yards. Notable is that both of those were road games, just as this one is. The Under is a perfect 6-0 in the Colts' last six road games, not to mention a perfect 5-0 when they enter in off an ATS loss. Bottom line is that I expect very little from the Colts offense here.

Theoretically, Tom Brady should be able to move the ball at will against this Indy defense. But he may not have Rob Gronkowski to throw the ball to. Gronk is listed as questionable here due to an ankle injury after leaving in the third quarter vs. Miami. He has been absent from practice this week, though the injury is not considered that serious. Julian Edelman is expected back from suspension and a possible Gronk-Edelman pairing would be huge for Brady. Still, this offense is only two weeks removed from a disastrous effort in Detroit (209 total yards) and it won't take many points to win this one. I look for the scoring to slow down late and for the Under to come in. The Under is 4-1 in the Patriots' last five Thursday games. 8* Under Colts/Patriots

10* Under Bengals/Falcons (1:00 ET): As I expressed last week, the Bengals have really surprised me with their amount of scoring this year. This is an offense I had projected to suffer a decline in scoring from last year when they ranked dead last in the league in yards per game. Yet, they came out and scored 34 pts each of the first two weeks. They did decline some in Week 3, suffering their first loss of the season, 31-21 at Carolina. Ironically though, they gained more total yards in that game (396) than they did in either of their two wins. A -4 turnover margin is what killed them against the Panthers. Now they get set to face another NFC South team on the road, Atlanta, who has its own issues right now, namely injuries. I'm going to roll again w/ the Under on the Bengals.

Admittedly, Atlanta's defense is facing some major issues right now, all because of injuries. Only three weeks are in the books and already three defensive starters have been lost to injury. Linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal went down in Week 1. Now the team's other starting safety, Ricardo Allen, will be joining them on the sidelines after tearing his Achilles in last week's loss to New Orleans. That game w/ the Saints was a real shootout, not decided until overtime, with the final score being 43-37. That has played a significant role in this week's total being so high. I realize there's a risk involved taking the Falcons Under w/ so many injuries on the defensive side of the ball. I took them Over two weeks ago hosting Carolina and that was a winner. But the number was also much lower. 

Want some perspective on just how high this total is for a Bengals game? Since 2010, the team has played only ONE game w/ a total north of 50 pts. That was Week 11 of the 2014 season at New Orleans and the game easily stayed Under as it was a 27-10 final (in favor of the Saints). The Bengals have a significant injury of their own that they are monitoring, that being the groin of WR AJ Green. If Green (who did not finish the Carolina game) is out, then that severely limits the Bengals' ability to exploit the Falcons' wounded secondary. Speaking of offensive injuries, Falcons' RB Devonta Freeman's status also remains unclear. I just look at this total as being too high, despite what we've seen from the respective offenses thus far. 10* Under Bengals/Falcons

8* Over BYU/Washington (8:30 ET): Both of these teams are 4-0 Under on the season. As a result, we have a lower than expected total. Now, has the Washington offense performed up to expectations thus far? Certainly not. This is a team that has averaged 36.2 and 41.8 points per game the last two seasons and brought eight starters back, including senior QB Jake Browning. I think it's only a matter of time before the Huskies start to hit their stride though. This is actually a top 25 battle now w/ BYU having "snuck" into the rankings on the strength of their stunning upset in Madison. While neither defense has given up more than 23 points in any game this season, I think at least one will get there Saturday (most likely Washington) and I'm on the Over. 

BYU went 4-9 last season. That's pretty atypical in Provo, so a bounce back season was all but assured. I took the Cougars in the opener when they went to Arizona and won outright, as double digit dogs, 28-23. They followed that up w/ a narrow home loss to Cal. Then came the game that caught everyone off-guard, the 24-23 upset of Wisconsin in Madison. I seriously doubt that the Cougars are going to be able to pull a second upset of a Top 10 team on the road, in less than three weeks. As stingy as the defense has looked, they basically gave up 400 total yards to both Cal and Wisconsin. Despite its rather meager PPG average (27.2), Washington has still averaged 432 YPG this season at 6.4 yards per play. They will be able to move the ball on this BYU defense.

Something to keep in mind w/ this total is that two of each team's four games would have gone Over it. Now Washington has allowed only 30 pts in three games since losing the opener to Auburn. But this is the toughest opponent they've played since the Tigers. It was a 14-10 game after one quarter LW vs. Arizona State. The Huskies also gave up 164 yards rushing, which is notable because of the offensive scheme BYU is going with this season. The Cougars have three different players averaging at least five yards per carry as they've gotten quite creative w/ their run schemes. They ran for almost 200 yards on Wisconsin despite just 28 carries. I say both offenses move the ball better than expected and as result we have more scoring than expected. The Over is 9-4-1 when UW is off an ATS loss and they did not cover LW vs ASU as they were 18-pt favorites. 8* Over BYU/Washington

10* Under Bengals/Panthers (1:00 ET): Cincinnati has opened the season w/ a pair of wins, scoring a surprising 34 points in both games. I call that number "surprising" because not only is it a lot points - even by modern NFL standards - but this was an offense I thought was set to decline in 2018. That sounds surprising given that they averaged only 18.1 pts per contest, but they were also dead last in total yds. This week, they head to Carolina to face a Panthers' team whose offense I am also quite skeptical of this season. Last year, they averaged a decent 22.7 PPG (12th most), but were slightly below average in terms of total yards (19th). Personnel losses will take their toll here as well. The Panthers' defense wasn't very good last week, but not facing the Falcons in Atlanta again will help. Take the Under. 

Cincinnati being one of six teams to average 30 or more points per game through the first two weeks is impressive, but it also has a lot to do w/ who they've played. Indianapolis was their Week 1 opponent and has a horrendous defense, one that allowed the Bengals to gain 6.6 yards per play. Last Thursday vs. Baltimore, the Ravens' offense did a great job setting Cincy's offense up on two short fields (turnovers), which led to 10 points. The Bengals also got a non-offensive TD in the opener. It's not like their yards per game average is anything special; it's only 351. They will enter this game w/o their starting center (Billy Price) and running back (Joe Mixon), which is a problem when you consider this offensive line is already 2nd in sacks allowed and 17th in rushing yards.

Carolina's defense had an "off-week" against Atlanta in the dome. The Falcons usually aren't very good in the red zone, yet converted all four opportunities into TD's. I had the Over in that game and cashed. This week is a much different story. I look for Ron Rivera's defense to be more reminiscent of what we saw in Wk 1 vs. the Cowboys when they produced six sacks and allowed only 8 points and 232 total yds. But on offense, Cam Newton is w/o his favorite target (Greg Olsen) for the rest of the season. Right now, a RB (Christian McCaffery) is the team's leading receiver. Newton is its leading rusher. That's not what you want to see, even as early as Week 3. Look for an ugly slugfest on Sunday. 10* Under Bengals/Panthers

8* Over Giants/Cowboys (8:20 ET): Two NFC East teams that thought they'd improved for 2018 each got a cold dose of reality in Week 1. The Giants lost at home, 20-15 to Jacksonville, while Dallas lost at Carolina, 16-8. With a couple of low-scoring affairs like that, it's no wonder that we find the O/U line so low Sunday night. Also, Dallas is now 9-1 Under its last 10 regular season games and 4-0 Under against the Giants the last two years. But, I believe the number is too low here. I look for a "surprise" Over here in Week 2 as both teams are desperate to avoid an 0-2 hole. 

If you combined the personnel of these two offenses, certainly it would be a desirable end result. The running game would be unreal w/ Ezekiel Elliot and rookie Saquon Barkely. Dallas has one of the top offensive lines in the league. The Giants have a great receiving corps. Dallas has the edge at QB w/ the youthful Dak Prescott over the aging Eli Manning. But both teams are "stuck" with what they've got. Dallas couldn't run for much (just 94 yards) against the Carolina defense, but should find easier sledding here against the Giants, who allowed 137 yds rushing LW to Jacksonville. It would help if their offensive line can get healthier and more productive. I don't think asking for three touchdowns is too much here. 

The Giants offense didn't look much better under Pat Shurmur than it did Ben McAdoo. But it too should start to improve. Eli Manning simply has too many weapons around him. You can argue that Barkley was drafted too high given his position, but he still gives the G-Men a running threat they didn't have last season. His presence was felt last week w/ a 68-yard TD run. The receiving corps was decimated by injury a year ago, but now has Odell Beckham Jr and Sterling Shepard back, among others. Beckham had 11 catches for 111 yards last week and remember that was against a Jaguars' pass defense that was the best in the league last season. The Cowboys secondary is nowhere close to as strong. This should be a very different type game for both teams after Week 1 slugfests. Look for more big plays and lots more scoring. 8* Over Giants/Cowboys

10* Over Panthers/Falcons (1:00 ET): These two teams combined for just 28 total pts in Week 1. Carolina beat Dallas 16-8 while Atlanta lost 18-12 to Philadelphia. With more time to prepare (played Thursday) and at home, I expect the Falcons' offense to resume its high-flying ways that we're accustomed to seeing. This will force the Panthers into a shootout and thus I see this Week 2 matchup exceeding the O/U line by quite a bit. I was a little surprised to find that the Under was 2-0 in this NFC South rivalry last season. I was even more surprised to find that it's cashed 9 of the previous 10 meetings and that Atlanta is on a streak of eight straight Unders dating back to last year's regular season. They averaged just 22.5 PPG at home LY, which seems like a number they'll improve on this year. Take the Over. 

Another reason I believe this Falcons' offense is set to improve this year is that they still ranked eighth in total yards. Red zone inefficiency really bogged them down in 2017, which could be attributed to the change at OC from Kyle Shanahan to Steve Sarkisian. That inefficiency again reared its ugly head LW in Philly, but I believe it's something that will be overcome. There were three drives where the Falcons got inside the Eagles' 5-yard line and they only came away w/ three points. Having to settle for a 21-yard field goal was disappointing, but not as bad as Matt Ryan throwing an interception or the final drive ending w/ an incompletion in the end zone. There are too many weapons on this offense for them not to score more. I suspect we'll see some big plays this week. 

Now the Falcons' defense is a different story. It took a significant hit w/ the loss of safety Keanu Neal (torn ACL) and LB Deion Jones (foot). Neal is obviously done for the year and Jones is being held out of practice this week. Carolina does not have the most dynamic offense, especially now with TE Greg Olsen out, but Cam Newton is a better QB than Nick Foles. The Falcons' D got a bit of a break facing an Eagles offense that was out of sync and riddled w/ injuries. Of course, the same could be said for Carolina's defense, which faced a one-dimensional Dallas offense that might have the worst passing attack in the entire league. Ryan will test them far more than Dak Prescott did. I look for a relatively high-scoring NFC South affair here as the Panthers are 9-2 Over following a game where they allowed fewer than 250 total yds. 10* Over Panthers/Falcons

THIS IS NO LONGER A PLAY DUE TO HURRICANE FLORENCE

10* Over Chiefs/Chargers (4:05 ET): The AFC West is wide open this year. It's a division that's largely been dominated by Kansas City since Andy Reid's arrival, the last two years in particular. Over the last two seasons, the Chiefs are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS vs. the rest of the division. But they have zero playoff wins to show for it. In fact, the Chiefs still have just ONE playoff win since Joe Montana retired a quarter century ago. That was three years ago against a Houston team that was quarterbacked by Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden. No longer content with going 12-4 and being "one and done" in the playoffs, the Chiefs have made a major move at QB this season, jettisoning Alex Smith in favor of last year's #1 draft choice Patrick Mahomes.

With the AFC West more wide open this year, the Chargers seem to have stepped into the favorite role. This was a very good team last year. They actually had a better point differential than Kansas City. But the same old issues plagued the Lightning Bolts, namely an inability to win close games. They dug themselves a huge hole last year, starting the Anthony Lynn era 0-4 w/ three of the losses coming by three points or fewer. From that point on, they went 9-3 SU (w/ one of the losses in OT), but it was "too little, too late." There's no doubt in my mind that this was one of the six best teams in the AFC last year (certainly better than Buffalo), they just didn't get a chance to show it. While there were two significant injuries sustained during camp - TE Hunter Henry and DB Justin Verrett - I believe this team has the tools to win the AFC West this year. 

Looking at last year's numbers, the Chargers were one of the top Under teams. The Under went 12-4 in their games as they allowed just 17.0 PPG, one of the lowest figures in the league (3rd). But they were actually 15th in yards allowed, so I expect some regression in the points allowed category this year. The same thing is true for the Chiefs, although it could be a bigger problem. While they ranked 15th in scoring defense, they were 28th in yards allowed. The difference here could end up being the fact that a Chargers offense that was 13th in scoring last year was also 4th in total yards. I'd "hold onto my hat" for this one as we should see plenty of scoring with the gunslingers Rivers and Mahomes leading the two offenses. Also Mahomes is likely to turn the ball over more times than his predecessor Smith, so don't rule out a defensive touchdown for Los Angeles here. 10* Over Chiefs/Chargers

10* Under Eagles/Patriots (6:30 ET): So, against the odds, the Eagles did make it to the Super Bowl. That sounds like an odd statement for a team that had home field advantage, but this isn't your typical #1 seed as they were a dog in both games. That's due to Nick Foles now starting at QB rather than MVP candidate Carson Wentz. Turns out that the "downgrade" from Wentz to Foles was severely overrated, if it even exists at all. As I've said before and will repeat again here, the strength of this Philly team has always been on the defensive side of the ball. It's now been four games in a row that this defense has allowed 10 pts or fewer (33 pts total). That will serve them well in this Super Bowl matchup w/ the favored Patriots. I know I've had success taking the Eagles twice so far, but I'll back away here and instead play the total, which I believe stays Under.

New England's defense is very interesting to evaluate. In terms of points allowed, they were 5th in the league, giving up only 18.5 per game. That's right behind the Eagles (4th), who allowed 18.4. But there's a giant gap between the two defenses in terms of yardage allowed. While Philly was also 4th in that department, New England was 29th. That bend but don't break mentality typically lends itself to regression, however, there is no denying that Matt Patricia's defense has gotten better as the season has gone along. Getting back to the number of points allowed, they've given up 20 pts or less in 12 of the past 16 games. They allowed only 267 yds total in the Divisional Rd win over Tennessee. Jacksonville outgained them (slightly) in the AFC Champ Game, but it was just six points in the 2H. Four of the seven drives after halftime were five plays or less and resulted in punts. 

The O/U line exceeds the total number of points per game both teams see scored in their respective games this year. The respective point differentials are actually virtually identical. Philly is #1 in the league, outscoring its opponents 28.3 to 17.3 per game. New England was #2 at 28.7 - 18.3. Though I have been downplaying Foles replacing Wentz at QB, it is a downgrade and I do have concerns over a backup QB on this stage. All but one of Foles starts have come at home. There is just no way the Eagles offense will perform as well here as they did in the NFC Title Game. Remember that one TD came from the defense. Also, remember that two weeks ago they were held to only 15 pts. As for the New England offense, will they have TE Rob Gronkowski (concussion)? Even if so, he is unlikely to be 100 percent. They only gained 344 yards against Jacksonville, includig 46 yds rushing against what is not a good run defense. The Eagles have a much better run defense than the Jags and given the status of Gronk, the Pats' passing game will be hampered. 10* Under Eagles/Patriots

8* Over Alabama/Georgia (8:45 ET): When you have the two top defenses in the country (in terms of efficiency) and two of the top four in points allowed per game (Bama #1, UGA #4), then Under is the natural inclination when it comes to betting the total. Alabama's Sugar Bowl win over Clemson was a real "defensive affair" w/ the Crimson Tide posting season lows in both total yards and yards per play. One-third of their plays went for zero or negative yards. Over the eight quarters, the Tide have scored just four touchdowns on 23 drives. Facing a pretty comparable defense in Monday night's Championship Game, another "ugly" affair has to be on tap, right? After all, Bama's defense was dominant as ever against Clemson, holding them to just 6 points and 188 total yards.

Not so fast, my friend! Georgia's thrilling Rose Bowl victory over Oklahoma (best Rose Bowl ever?) was no "defensive affair" as the 'Dawgs prevailed 54-48 in double OT w/ the two offenses combining for 1,058 yards. Now that was against an Oklahoma offense that is far more prolific than any other in the CFP and quite possibly the entire country. Alabama is a MUCH different opponent than the Sooners w/ defense being their strong side. But Bama still comes in averaging 37.9 points per game. The Georgia offense averages 36.3 PPG. With all the attention being paid to the two defenses, might we be underrating the offenses? 

This will be the second lowest O/U line for any Alabama game this season. The only lower one (43.0) was vs. Vanderbilt and saw the Tide blow by the total themselves in a 59-0 win. Now, pretty clearly, that kind of lopsided result will NOT be repeated here. But whatever decline in scoring there is from Bama's perspective can be offset by the Georgia offense being significantly better than Vandy's. Away from Tuscaloosa, the Tide allows 17.3 PPG, more than double what they allow at home. Georgia had only two games w/ an O/U line lower than this one (vs Vandy and Florida) and both went Over. Ironically, UGA scored 42 and 45 pts in those two games. Again, I don't think for a second either offense will score 40+, but they can both score 20+ and don't discount the possibility of a defensive or special teams TD here. 8* Over Alabama/Georgia 

8* Under Panthers/Saints (4:25 ET): New Orleans went under a sort of radical transformation in 2017, all of a sudden developing a defense and running game to compliment Drew Brees. Actually, that statement somewhat underscores the transformation. The defense and running game became the identity of the team, supplanting Brees and the passing game. Led by rookie Alvin Kamara and a revitalized Mark Ingram (both made Pro Bowl), the Saints were #1 in the league in yards per carry at 4.7. The defense allowed just 20.4 PPG, same as the more heralded Carolina unit. Brees attempted 137 fewer passes than last season. This is a much different Saints team than the last time they made the playoffs (2014).

Carolina may have allowed the same number of points per game as New Orleans, but they allowed significantly fewer yards (7th best overall) and held opponents to 32 YPG below season averages (4th best). They were #3 against the run (88.1 YPG allowed), but the Saints had their way w/ them in the two regular season matchups, going for 149 and 148 yards, both wins. But while the Panthers also allowed 30+ points in both games, they allowed only one other 30+ pt game (Patriots) all season. How impressive were the Saints' two rushing performances against the Panthers in the regular season? In 13 of their other 14 games, Carolina did not allow more than 109 rushing yards. They allowed 85 yds or less 10 times.

Carolina's offense averaged only 22.7 points per game and ranked only 19th in yards per game. They scored only 10 points in the regular season finale at Atlanta. In two games vs. New Orleans, they scored 21 and 13 points. So if the Panthers are to win on Wild Card weekend, it will likely be on the back of the defense. Speaking of defense, the Saints allowed fewer than 20 pts in over half of their regular season games. While I realize these teams have posted the highest combined scoring average of any division rivals the past few seasons, those were different-type teams, especially on the Saints side. Two years ago, the Panthers were the top scoring offense in the league en route to a Super Bowl appearance. That's certainly not the case anymore. In three indoor games this year, Carolina averaged only 19.3 points per game. 8* Under Panthers/Saints

10* Under Falcons/Rams (8:00 ET): The Wild Card round in the NFC half of the draw seems far more compelling than its AFC counterpart. Here, he we have the defending NFC Champs (who blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl, you may have heard) against this year's big upstart. Atlanta led the league in yards per play (6.7) as well as most other key offensive categories last season, but while still effective on that side of the ball, dropped across the board this season. Thus, a team that was 16-2-1 Over last year went 11-5 Under this regular season. The Under has cashed in their last five games. Therefore, something is going to have to give Saturday night in LA as the Rams head into the playoffs on a five-game Over run!

The Rams replaced the Falcons as the league's highest scoring team this year, scoring 125 more points over the course of the 16-game season. Their PPG average would have been even better had they not elected to rest starters LW vs. San Francisco (had NFC West wrapped up). Admittedly, even the most optimistic Rams fan did not see this season coming. The transformation of QB Jared Goff from year one to two was borderline miraculous and 1st year HC Sean McVay deserves a ton of credit. A resurgent Todd Gurley helps too. But I'm counting on a rusty Rams offense here due to a combination of the regulars not playing last week and the playoff stage being new to them. Let us not forget a game against Minnesota earlier this year when this group was held to just 7 pts (scored on opening drive). 

Dan Quinn, now in his third year as Falcons' HC, was ironically brought into repair the defense. Last year's team (as mentioned above) was carried by Matt Ryan and the offense, but any 2017 decline was somewhat offset by an excellent defense that allowed only 19.7 points per game. No opponent scored more than 23 against them in the L6 weeks and only one (Seattle) did so over the L11 weeks! Of course, the Rams have an impressive D too, coordinated by one of the best ever, Wade Phillips. Coming into the year, that side of the ball was thought to be the strength of the team and rather quietly they allowed only 20.6 PPG. They are also 4th in sacks w/ 48. I believe they can handle an Atlanta offense whose production almost always declines outdoors. The Falcons haven't scored 30 pts in any of the L5 games. I doubt they would here. Finally, let's not discount the impact of the Rams not having ace kicker Greg Zuerlein.  10* Under Falcons/Rams

8* Over Notre Dame/LSU (1:00 ET): This is one of the better non-CFP bowl games and a rematch of the 2016 Music City Bowl, won by the Fighting Irish, 31-28 as 8-pt underdogs. But that particular bowl game was played in December. Why is that significant? Well, ND has gone a horrific 0 for its last 9 (straight up) in January bowls! Prior to the start of the season, I had the Irish as one of the most improved teams in the country and they did not disappoint, racing out to an 8-1 SU start before dropping two of its last three (@ Miami and Stanford). LSU is on an opposite trajectory as they opened 3-2 SU (including home loss to Troy!), but then they closed on a 6-1 SU (only loss to Alabama) run, covering all seven games.

I've got no great read on the side here (though I give a slight lean to Notre Dame), however, the total is something I'm very interesting in. Both offenses like to run the football, but will be going up against staunch run defenses. That sounds like an Under ... but I still trust this Irish offensive line (best in the country?). Before the Miami game, Notre Dame averaged a whopping 7.0 yards per rush. I expect them to rediscover that type of ground attack here as LSU will be minus its top three linebackers! I realize QB Brandon Wimbush completed less than 50% of his pass attempts in the regular season and will be w/o two receivers and tight ends on New Year's Day (combo of suspensions and injuries). But I think the run game can carry the offense, like it did in the reg season when it averaged a healthy 35.3 points per game.

LSU's offense averaged 412.9 yards per game, which is probably more than you thought. It's not quite as lofty as Notre Dame's 454.9 YPG, but they averaged roughly the same number of yards per play (6.3 vs. 6.4). QB Etling completed nearly 60 percent of his pass attempts and it's looking like RB Darius Guice will be a go. In each of their last three games, the Tigers ran for 200+ yards and the Irish defense actually gave up 237 or more on the ground in three of the last four. They also allowed 37 or more points three times in that same stretch. The LSU offense got much better as the season went along, scoring 30+ in each of the final three games, peaking w/ a season-best 45 pts against A&M in the finale. 8* Over Notre Dame/LSU

8* Under 49ers/Rams (4:25 ET): Is Jimmy Garappolo the greatest player in NFL history? In all seriousness, the Niners QB has never lost a NFL start (now 6-0) and has made San Fran look like a completely different team since coming over from New England. They were 1-10 SU when he took over and now they're 5-10 SU following wins over Chicago, Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville (if only the 49ers played in the AFC South!). Two of those wins were very close (as in decided by 2 pts or less), but LW saw "Jimmy G" and company hang 44 pts on what was the #1 scoring defense in the NFL (Jaguars). That combined w/ the fact that the Rams are the #1 scoring offense in the league might lead you to believe Over is the correct call here. But this is Week 17 and no normal game. Take the Under.

Even though their seeding is not set (could be #3 or #4 in NFC), the Rams have decided that winning the NFC West is enough as they're guaranteed to host a Wild Card game next weekend, regardless of what happens here. 1st year HC Sean McVay (should be Coach of the Year) is resting starters, most notably QB Jared Goff, RB Todd Gurley, WR Cooper Kupp, not to mention the possibilty of two offensive lineman as well. So the offense that will take the field Sunday, led by backup QB Sean Mannion, will be MUCH different than the one that has averaged 30.9 PPG this year. Then there's the kicking game where Greg Zuerlein is injured and we saw the adverse effect that had last week vs. Tennessee (replacement Sam Ficken missed an XP and short FG). 

While the 49ers did score 44 pts LW, one of their touchdowns came from the defense and two others were set up on a short field after Jacksonville turnovers. The Niners were actually outgained in the contest. This being the season's second matchup between the teams, typically we see an Under in this situation. The first game, which might as well have been played last season as it was all the way back in Week 3, was a wild 41-39 Thursday night affair. I expect nothing of the sort here w/ the Rams playing backups. In Garoppolo's first three starts, the Niners failed to break 26 points. 8* Under 49ers/Rams 

8* Over USC/Ohio State (8:00 ET): I'd say that outside the CFP itself, this is the most anticipated bowl game. Initially, my lean is to Ohio State as the irony of the debate between them and Alabama for the 4th (and final) spot in the playoff is that I think they're - on paper - the best two teams in the country. Not making the CFP should lead to HC Urban Meyer having his Buckeyes VERY motivated on Friday night. But ... USC is not chopped liver. The Trojans were not a healthy team when they suffered their two losses during the regular season (at Wazzu and Notre Dame). If Iowa can put up 55 pts on this Buckeyes' defense, then QB Sam Darnold and company should certainly "do some damage" as well. I look for a very high-scoring (and entertaining) Cotton Bowl. Take the Over.

Ohio State's offense averaged more PPG - significantly - than did USC's. While QB J.T. Barrett is often maligned by the faithful in Columbus, he directed a group that averaged an impressive 42.5 PPG in the regular season. USC's defense is not very good at stopping the run (allowed 158 YPG) and OSU is averaging 250 YPG over land. Overall, the Buckeyes are averaging 523.6 yards per game total at 7.0 yards per play. I see them moving the ball, almost at will, in this game. The fact that USC could be down two starters on the defensive side of the ball - LB Porter Gustin and CB Jack Jones - does not bode well here. Barrett ran for 732 yards this season, a nice compliment to sensational RB J.K. Dobbins, who went for 1,364 as a freshman.

Of course, USC has a "pretty nice" QB/RB combo of their own in Darnold and Ronald Jones II. In fact, that's not only a better duo than Barrett/Dobbins, it just might be the best QB/RB combo in the entire country! USC averages 34.5 points and 490 yards per game. Other than the disaster against Notre Dame, there wasn't a single game where this Trojans offense was held under 27 pts. They did need OT to get to that benchmark vs. Texas, but the Longhorns also happen to have one of the top defenses in the country. The best performances from Ohio State's defense were all reserved for the non-bowl teams, as they gave up 38 to Penn State and 55 to Iowa. 8* Over USC/Ohio State

8* TCU/Stanford Under (9:00 ET): The bowl matchups are starting to get more "attractive" on Thursday w/ three of the four pitting ranked teams against one another. This is one of them. I liked both TCU and Stanford coming into this season as the former got the "honor" of being labeled "my most improved team in the country" and the win total I had on them (Over 7.5) cashed easily. So you may be surprised to see that I'm NOT on the Horned Frogs here. That's because I also have a ton of respect for Stanford, especially w/ RB Bryce Love suiting up. This should be a very good game, between two well-coached teams, and that should lend itself to an Under play in my opinion. Both teams allow fewer than 21.5 PPG w/ TCU allowing only 17.6.

The Under was 9-3 for TCU in the regular season, not surprising, given the defensive prowess. Like Stanford, the Horned Frogs (#11) are in the top 15 in defensive efficiency (Stanford is #15). Over the final two months, only one offense - that being Oklahoma's (so no shame there!) was able to top 24 pts against these Horned Frogs. And in the reg season matchup w/ the Sooners, they shut them out in the 2nd half (in Norman!). Iowa State was the only team besides OU to beat the Frogs and that was a 14-7 final. Getting back to the defense, it ranks top five nationally in yards per attempt (rushing), which seems like a good thing when getting set to face Love. That number per attempt was just 2.9! It's not just the run that this stop unit is great against, however. They also allow just a 52% completion rate, which is pretty impressive playing in the Big 12. For the season, they held opponents to 122 YPG below season averages.

The TCU offense scored more than 27 pts only two times in the last eight games and those came against Baylor and Kansas, who went a combined 1-17 SU in conference play (2-22 overall!) w/ the one win being Baylor beating Kansas. As you know, they don't play a lot of defense in the Big 12, so the Stanford defense (which faces some strong passing attacks in the Pac 12) will be a tall order. The Cardinal were also their conference runner-up and like TCU losing to Oklahoma twice, they lost to USC twice. We have two inconsistent QB's at the helm here. 8* TCU/Stanford Under

8* Under Purdue/Arizona (8:30 ET): The Foster Farms Bowl features two teams that should be "happy to be here," simply based on the notion neither was in a bowl at the end of last season. Purdue was due for better luck in 2017 based on the fact they were tied for the worst turnover differential in the country last season (-17). They won their final reg season game, over rival Indiana, to become bowl eligible. Meanwhile, Arizona dropped its final two reg season games to finish 7-5 SU. Again, Rich Rod's team improving in '17 did not surprise me given most key metrics were pointing up after dipping down to 3-9 SU last season. Given the disparate styles of play here, something will have to give w/ the total and I see an Under.

Purdue's defense - by the numbers - is very good. They allow only 19.3 PPG and that number actually drops outside of West Lafayette. That's key when facing an Arizona offense that comes in averaging 41.8 PPG, led by QB Khalil Tate. Over the L8 games, the Boilermakers didn't allow more than 25 pts to any opponent. (Granted, the schedule was not tough). But Michigan and Louisville were the only teams to score more than 25 against them all season. The problem here though is the offense averages only 24.2 PPG. 1st year HC Jeff Brohm will eventually have an impact on this group, but it wasn't this year nor will it be this game. In half their games, the Boilers scored 24 pts or less. 

Arizona is all offense and no defense, so it's just the reverse of Purdue. Playing in the Pac 12, the Wildcats didn't exactly face the kind of stout defense they'll see here. The good news though is that the defense will get a reprieve facing the Purdue offense. This O/U line clearly skews more to Arizona's style of play and I believe that's a mistake given Purdue had gone Under in six straight and 9 of 11 (w/ consistently lower totals) prior to the reg season finale vs. Indiana. 8* Under Purdue/Arizona 

10* Over N Illinois/Duke (5:15 ET): This year's edition of the Quick Lane Bowl pits Northern Illinois against Duke. The former is used to playing here at Ford Field due to their plethora of MAC Title Game appearances. They didn't win their division this season, but still finished a solid 6-2 in conf play (8-4 SU overall) w/ the two losses coming to Toledo and C Michigan (meaningless reg season finale). Duke, meanwhile, needed to win its two final reg season games just to get here. It was a very "up and down" season in Durham w/ the Blue Devils having opened 4-0 SU (including a very impressive non-conf win over N'western), then losing six straight, followed by the B2B wins. I've got no read on the side, so to the total we go!

Duke at long last snapped its drought of no bowl victories (dated back to 1961!) two years ago w/ a win in the Pinstripe Bowl over Indiana. They failed to make a bowl game LY as they dropped to 4-8 SU. But, as mentioned above, they equaled that win total through just four games this season. Clearly, the most impressive win was 41-17 over N'western. But the good times would not last as the offense never broke 21 points during the six-game losing streak. However, note four of those six losses came by a TD or less. Interestingly, in all six wins, the Blue Devils scored 27 or more. We'll need to see more of the Daniel Jones (QB) that started the year w/ a 5-2 TD-INT ratio and threw for 226 YPG, than the one we saw in the middle portion of the season. In the final two reg season games, Duke gained 943 total yds. 

Northern Illinois certainly has a formidable defense. The Huskies led the COUNTRY in tackles for loss (8.8 per game!) and were #2 in sacks. Yet, they still gave up 31 pts in each of the final two reg season games and enter the Bowl on a three-game Over streak. There seems to be a prevailing wisdom that this will be a lower-scoring affair and as a result, oddsmakers posted a low O/U line. By kickoff, this may be the lowest O/U line of the season for NIU, save for a game against a Kent State team that may have had the worst offense in the country this season. The Huskies' offense really came on in the 2H of the season, scoring 30 or more in five of the last six games. They wound up averaging over 30 PPG. Duke went Under in all but three reg season games, but there's a good chance this ends up as their lowest O/U line of the season to date as well. 10* Over N Illinois/Duke

10* Over Steelers/Texans (4:30 ET): Even w/ an extra day to prepare, this is not a great situation for the Steelers, who are having to hit the road after losing an emotional game (at home) last week to the Patriots and they no longer have WR Antonio Brown (out for the rest of the reg season). The loss, which has brought about debate ad nauseum over how how the late game execution was handled, probably will cost the Black & Gold home field advantage in the AFC playoff draw (they now need New England to lose again). Though, it is is likely they'll still be the #2 seed and get a bye. Fortunately though, this week's opponent is exponentially weaker, especially now that they are on their THIRD QB of the season. I wouldn't want to lay the points, but Pittsburgh should certainly score enough here to help the game go Over the total.

As you (likely) now know, Ben Roethlisberger threw an INT in the end zone in the closing seconds of last week's 27-24 loss to the Patriots. If there was ever time to call up the "dreaded" fate route, it was there. At worst, the pass goes incomplete, you can still kick the game-tying field goal and then try your luck in overtime. But considering the Steelers were already 7-1 SU in games decided by seven points or less this season, maybe they were due for some "comeuppance." While no Steelers' road game has gone Over this season (0-6-1), this talented offense has certainly begun to "rediscover itself" w/ averages of 28.7 points and 444 yards per game over the L3 weeks.

While I certainly expect the Pittsburgh offense to "get theirs" at the expense of an injury-riddled defense, the Texans offense will be required to do SOMETHING here to help this one go Over the total. Certainly, there's only one way to go (and that's up!) after four straight games of 16 pts or fewer. Last week, they gained just 186 yards total, but that game (vs. Jacksonville) still went Over as it was a 45-7 loss. QB TJ Yates obviously isn't great, but he's probably playing for a roster spot at this point. Plus, he has one of the top WR's in the game to throw to in DeAndre Hopkins. But the really good news is that the Texans' scoring average jumps up to 27.4 PPG at home. Four of the Steelers' last five games would have gone Over this total. Houston home games average roughly 51 PPG. 10* Over Steelers/Texans

8* Under Colts/Ravens (4:30 ET): Coming in at 8-6 SU w/ two weeks to go in the regular season, Baltimore has to be feeling pretty good right now about its chances of returning to the playoffs after a two-year hiatus. They finish w/ two bad teams, these Colts and the Bengals (who are playing for a lame duck coach), and both games are at home. History suggests that the Ravens will NOT lose this game as they are 25-0 straight up in franchise history as a double digit favorite! But they're only 13-12 ATS in those same games and the price is especially high here. They may very well cover, but the Under is a better looking play to me w/ the key being I don't expect Indianapolis to score very many points here. 

The Colts should already be thinking about next year. Andrew Luck not playing at all doomed them from the start here in 2017 and there's a good chance HC Chuck Pagano might be relieved of his duties at season's end. While the Colts have managed three wins, they are probably the second worst team in all of football (ahead of the Browns, obviously) as those wins came at the expense of Cleveland, San Francisco (pre-Jimmy G) and Houston (post-DeShaun Watson). The last six games have all stayed Under for them w/ the offense never topping 20 points. In the last five games, all losses, they have not broken 17 points. In the last three, they've averaged a measley 10.0 points and 248 yards per game. Four of the last five weeks, they have not even gained 300 total yards. So, yes, this is a very bad team and QB Jacoby Brissett (who looks lost at times) knowns he's just "keeping the seat warm" for Luck's impending return next season. Brissett has thrown only 11 TD passes this year and has been sacked 49 times. He figures to fare poorly against this Ravens defense, which leads the league in turnover margin (+17). 

The Ravens may have scored 23+ points in every game since the bye and appear to be peaking at the right time. But, through the years, they've had some strange struggles w/ the Colts. They've beaten them just twice since 2002 and are just 1-9 ATS the L10 head to head matchups. But this is obviously one of the worst editions of Colts football they will have faced during that time (31st in total offense) and simply put, I expect the Ravens' defense to dominate this game. They lead the league in sacks, so Brissett is in major trouble, plus they've allowed an average of just 16.4 PPG at home in December under HC Harbaugh. There's also the strange trend that has seen these teams go Under in six straight and 10 of the last 11 matchups! Baltimore's scoring has been aided by multiple defensive scores the last five games (had another last week) and while that's a real possibility again here, I just don't see Indy scoring very much. For the year, the Ravens are still only gaining 303.6 YPG. 8* Under Colts/Ravens

10* Under Central Michigan/Wyoming (4:00 ET): These programs enter the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on very different trajectories. Central Michigan won and covered its final five regular season games while Wyoming dropped its last two games, one of them to an awful San Jose State team. The big story here centers around Cowboys QB Josh Allen, a likely 1st round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft (overrated prospect, in my opinion). Whether or not Allen actually plays is irrelevant to me as I see a Wyoming offense that is very bad with or without him (atrocious w/o him!), yet the defense is what could make this a win for the Mountain West contingent. CMU rang up some big point totals on bad defenses down the stretch in the regular season. Take the Under. 

Now, to be fair to Allen, he lost a lot of his supporting cast to the NFL this season. Four starters from LY's offense are now playing on Sunday's and approximately 80 percent of LY's rushing and receiving production was lost as well. Thus, even w/ Allen playing most of the way, we have an offense here that didn't even average 300 YPG in the regular season. Allen was absent from the team's final two games and the Cowboys scored a TOTAL of 20 pts in losses to Fresno State and San Jose State. Personally, I don't know why Allen would play here given the shoulder issues and the impending payday he is going to receive. Regardless, Wyoming has gone Under in six straight games and 10 of 12 this year. That's also owed to a defense which allows just 17.8 PPG. 

One edge Wyoming does have over CMU here is they are used to playing in altitude and this game takes place on their side of the country. So, look for the Chippewas' offense to be drastically less productive here than it was down the stretch in the regular season. Also, note that before going Over in those final five games, the Chips had gone Under in five straight. After giving up 55 pts in LY's Bowl loss (to Tulsa), I suspect the CMU defense is going to play with a "chip" on its shoulder (pun intended!). "Anytime you let up that many points you're going to come off (angry)," defensive tackle Chris Kantzavelos told CMUChippewas.com. Both of these defense finished Top 12 nationally in interceptions. Neither offense is very good at running the ball (Wyoming is 119th nationally), so it may prove difficult to move the chains. 10* Under Central Michigan/Wyoming

8* Over Temple/Florida International (8:00 ET): Initially, Temple looked like "fade material" in this spot. FIU is the program making its return to a bowl for the first time since 2011 while this is Temple's third straight venture into the College postseason. The Owls were also outscored in the regular season and this game is being played in the state of Florida (it is the St. Petersburg Bowl after all). But FIU was also outscored in the reg season and you have the factor that Temple was upset in each of its previous two bowl appearances. So, the soon to be departing seniors should probably be pretty motivated here. Therefore, we're going to turn to the total in this bowl game, a number that has been on the rise since it opened.

The O/U line has risen, probably, in part due to the fact that both of these teams ended their respective regular seasons on Over streaks. Temple has gone Over in five straight (after going Under in their previous six games). FIU has gone Over in four straight and went 8-4 Over in the reg season. In five of its last seven season, including the previous three (all under current Baylor HC Matt Rhule), Temple allowed 20.1 points per game or fewer. This year, that number jumped to 27.7 PPG. They were sure to save their worst defensive efforts for their games against bowl opposition, allowing 45, 26, 31, 20, 43 and 49 pts. That's an average of exactly 29 PPG allowed. Offensively though, the Owls have been able to "pick up the slack." In their last three victories, they've averaged 37.3 PPG.

Not to be outdone, FIU scored 104 pts in its final two reg season games. Their finale was a 63-45 shootout vs. UMass. That was a record-setting win, not just in terms of wins in a single season (8) for the program, but also for total yardage in a game (674). They rolled up 379 yards on the ground w/ SIX touchdowns and were 7 for 7 overall in the red zone, scoring more points than any other game in program history. Defensively though, there are issues. They allow more PPG than Temple and have given up at least 37 pts in three of the previous four games. In half of their games this year, they allowed at least 30 points. 8* Over Temple/Florida International

8* Over Rams/Seahawks (4:05 ET): When we think of these teams, we think "defense," but that may be a misnomer as the Rams' offense has put up the second most points in the NFL, topped by only the Eagles team that beat them last week (in fact, the number of points the Rams lost by - 8 - represents the total difference in pts scored between the two teams). Fantasy players know that Russell Wilson - not Carson Wentz - is the top QB this season. Seattle is also off a loss, and a high-scoring at that, as they fell 30-24 in Jacksonville. This is somewhat of a tough spot for the Seahawks as they flew all the way across the country last week and back. Both teams are down key defensive personnel. So I'm on the Over here. 

Usually, in the second matchup of the year between division foes, I lean towards the Under. There's a familiarity present that typically - but not always - leads to less points being scored. But I don't think that will be the story here. First off, the 1st meeting (in LA) was only a 16-10 final in favor of Seattle. It was a fairly fortunate win for the Seahawks as they were outgained 375-241, but forced five turnovers. It was a very frustrating result from the Rams' offense's perspective. There were four different drives they moved the ball inside the Seattle 25-yard line, only to come away w/ no points. The Seahawks' defense that QB Jared Goff and company will go up against here is much different and not for the better. Already two different "Legion of Boom" members (Sherman, Chancellor) are out and now linebackers Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright may join them on the sidelines. Wagner in particular would be a massive loss.

The Rams' strength on the defensive side of the ball comes against the pass rather than the run. That's good for them b/c Seattle struggles to run and almost entirely relies on Wilson's playmaking. But they get a break in that the Rams are also down a top DB, Kayvon Webster, and already to struggle defend tight ends. That could mean trouble w/ the Russell Wilson-Jimmy Graham combo. With the Rams' offense ranking #2 in points scored league-wide and having scored 67 pts the L2 wks, they should certainly hold up their "end of the bargain" here, especially w/ the Seahawks having allowed 400+ yds in B2B games. As for Seattle, they average 28.0 PPG at home. 8* Over Rams/Seahawks

8* Under Middle Tennessee/Arkansas State (8:00 ET): This is our third and final matchup between Conference USA and the Sun Belt on Saturday and wouldn't you know I've got you covered w/ plays on all three! Middle Tennessee was a bit of a disappointment this year, which can be tied to key injuries on the offensive side of the ball, notably ones to QB Brent Stockstill and WR Richie James. They really struggled to score w/o that "dynamic duo," though Stockstill is now back and the offense averaged 36 PPG in the L4 games. (James remains out). But be aware that the return of Stockstill (coach's son) also coincided w/ the easy portion of the Blue Raiders' schedule. Three of the teams they faced during that stretch were: Old Dominion, Charlotte and UTEP, all of whom are among the very worst teams in the country. So I'm not expecting MTSU's offense to have a "banner day" here in the Camellia Bowl. Take the Under. 

Arkansas State blew its chance to finish w/ at least a share of the Sun Belt reg season crown when they lost to Troy in the final game. It was a brutal loss, one that saw them fall victim to multiple non-offensive scores by the Trojans, not to mention ASU had a MASSIVE edge in total yards (606-293!). The Red Wolves gave up the lead w/ only 17 seconds remaining (lost 32-25) after taking it w/ two TDs of their own in the final three minutes. It will be interesting to see how ASU performs here off such a brutal defeat. Will they be motivated or will there be a hangover? There is a chance MTSU comes in as the more motivated side here being that they are looking to snap a four-game bowl losing streak and are playing less than 300 miles from campus (game is in Birmingham, AL). 

These are old SBC foes and the last time they played was five years ago w/ ASU winning 45-0 in the swan song for now Auburn HC Gus Mahlzan. There's been an incredible amt of turnover at the head coaching position here in Jonesboro (4 in 6 years!), but now in his fourth year here, Blake Anderson is a good man for the job as he has the most wins (31) ever in program history for the first four years of a tenure (of course, he could be gone soon too!). Anderson has a top-notch QB to lean on in Justice Hansen, who threw a SBC record 34 TD passes this season. But like Middle Tennessee, be aware of the numbers ASU put up in games vs. non-bowl teams. The Red Wolves' five highest scoring efforts of this season (all 37+ pts) all came against atrocious opponents, such as LA Monroe, Lafayette, Ark Pine-Bluff, Coastal Carolina and GA Southern. Their one win over a bowl opponent came against New Mexico State! Both defenses here allow fewer than 25 PPG and I look for this to be a much lower scoring game than anticipated. 8* Under Middle Tennessee/Arkansas State

10* Under Broncos/Colts (8:25 ET): Thursday Night Football should probably be done away w/ entirely, for a number of reasons, the least of which is matchups such as this one. It's fair to label both the Broncos and Colts among the very worst teams in the league, particularly Indy. Denver at least won last week, though that snapped an eight-game SU and ATS losing skid where the team rarely led, let alone was "in the money" (i.e. covering). However, they did dominate the Jets last week (from start to finish) in a 23-0 shutout. The defense is still good here (top 10) and deserves ALL of the credit for the fact the team is still actually outgaining its opponents over the course of this season. But the offense remains putrid, something that is not exclusive in this matchup. Take the Under here.

Denver still only averages 17.6 points per game as they've cycled through three different starting QB's this season, none of whom appear to be viable options at this level. Trevor Siemian has been the most consistent of the bunch, but that's not saying much. Even in victory last week, the Broncos still only gained 273 total yds of offense and you'd have to go all the way back to Week 1 (when they scored 24 pts) to find the last time they topped last week's 23. Incredibly, the Colts are even more inept offensively as they average only 16.3 PPG, though they were not in a good situation last week playing in the snow at Buffalo (lost 13-7 in OT). They actually did gain 163 yards rushing, but that was on 46 attempts and even though this game is indoors, they won't be gaining as many yds over land this week as the Denver defense is tied for #3 in the league at stopping the run (allowing 89.5 YPG).

With one team shutting out its opponent last week and the other playing in a blizzard, I shouldn't have to tell you that both teams are coming off an Under here. In fact, Indianapolis' last five games have all stayed Under the total. Earlier, I mentioned how the Broncos have not topped 24 points in a game this season. The Colts did twice, but those games came against Cleveland and San Francisco (both winless at the time) early in the year. Having been held to 20 pts or less in five straight games and facing what is still a Top 10 defense, I don't expect much from Jacoby Brissett and company Thursday night. Denver, meanwhile, averages a putrid 13.5 PPG on the road. Fortunately, there is that defense, which allowed just 100 yards TOTAL last week! The week before (vs. Miami) saw the two teams' defenses account for 18 pts of scoring. That won't be happening again. Oddsmakers can't make this O/U low enough, in my estimation. 10* Under Broncos/Colts

10* Over Patriots/Dolphins (8:30 ET): New England will be w/o star TE Rob Gronkowski (suspended) here, but it figures to matter little against a Miami team that should feel extremely fortunate to have five wins this season. The Dolphins rank near the bottom of the league in most, if not all, consequential offensive categories and that includes being last in yards gained (292.6 per game) and 27th in points (17.4). Prior to LW's 35-9 thumping of the Broncos (more on that in a moment), all of Miami's previous wins had come by six points or less. Going against a resurgent Patriots' defense, we probably should not expect much from this Dolphins' offense tonight. That being said, their last seven games have all gone Over the total and that's the way I'm playing this one.

Reports of the Pats' demise were greatly exaggerated. They did start out "only" 2-2 SU w/ the defense giving up 30+ points in all four games. But since then, it's been eight consecutive victories, tied w/ Pittsburgh (who they play next week!) for the longest active streak in the league. During the win streak, the defense has not allowed more than 17 pts in any game. Still, I'm a bit leery of buying "too much" into this "transformation" as the Patriots' D continues to allow plenty of yards per game (375.7). With or w/o Gronk, however, there is no questioning Tom Brady and this offense. They lead the league in yards per game (413.1) and in the first meeting vs. Miami (two weeks ago), it was 35 points and 417 yards that were put up. One of the reasons I'm not overly concerned w/ the Gronk suspension here is that in the 1st meeting, the Pats were highly successful at the running the ball, gaining 196 yards on 38 carries.

Miami actually averages 25.2 PPG at home, a full TD over their overall scoring average. Because they lost a home game to London, they've played only five times here all season. But in each of the last four, they've scored at least 20 points. If they hit that benchmark here tonight, I have no doubt that the Over is coming in. Last week's game vs. Denver was a bit odd in that there were two safeties (both for Miami) and two non-offensive scores (1 per side). Take that stuff away and it would have been a far lower scoring game. But Miami did gain 367 total yds and had success running and passing the ball. The home game before that (vs. Tampa Bay), they gained a season-best 448 yds (only to be undone by FIVE turnovers). Again, seven straight Overs for this team. 10* Over Patriots/Dolphins

8* Under Raiders/Chiefs (1:00 ET): There was a time when the thought of a tight, three-way race for AFC West supremacy would have been considered unfathomable. At least one that involves the Chargers, who were 0-4 SU at one point while the other three teams all started 2-0 or better. The Chiefs were 5-0 SU and thought to be the best team in the league at one point. But that was a mirage as they were being outgained the whole time and a stunning fall (lost six of seven) has opened the door for both Oakland and Los Angeles to overtake them. All three teams enter the week at 6-6 SU, making this game absolutely crucial (Chargers host Washington). Oakland took the first meeting, 31-30, in what was an absolute thriller, won on an untimed down. But I expect the rematch to feature a lot less scoring. Take the Under.

Oakland's offense has been nowhere near as prolific as it was last year, scoring more than 21 pts just three times in the L10 games. The KC game, a Thurs night home game, was their highest scoring effort of the season. I'm not buying this team as being "back" considering their last three wins were against the Dolphins, Broncos and Giants, and all by a TD or less. Last week vs. the Giants, it was a 10-7 game entering the 4th quarter. Yes, the Chiefs' D is w/o CB Marcus Peters (suspended), but the Raiders' offense may likely be w/o WR Amari Cooper (concussion). Oakland's last three games have all stayed Under the total w/ them averaging fewer than 18 points per game.

Meanwhile, it's all going wrong for the Chiefs right now. The offense finally woke up last week, scoring two early TD's and finishing w/ 31 points. But the defense let them down, making Jets QB Josh McCown look like an All-Pro. The 38-31 loss was KC's fourth in a row, the last three all by a TD or less. The previous three had seen them score just 36 points total, however. The defense has allowed 20 pts or fewer in more half the games this season, so again, I have every reason to believe that this week will see far less scoring than that first meeting. It's also all but assured the KC offense will see its production decrease from last week (and the 1st meeting), especially w/ the cloud of uncertainty hanging over QB Alex Smith. Could there be a Patrick Mahomes sighting? 8* Under Raiders/Chiefs

10* Under Army/Navy (3:00 ET): Games between the three service academies (Army, Navy, Air Force) have a history of staying Under the total (29-8-1 since '05!), which really shouldn't be a surprise given the style of offense these teams run. The run-heavy approach leads to the clock running far more often than not and these games are usually low possession affairs. Furthermore, the fact that the defenses face this type of offense in practice makes preparation far easier. So, I wasn't shocked to see the O/U line for this year's Army-Navy tilt bet down as soon as it opened. But this is a case where oddsmakers can't make the number low enough. None of the last five matchups have seen more than 41 total pts scored. Take the Under. 

We all remember what happened LY as Army ended its historic 14-game losing streak in the rivalry w/ a 21-17 win as four-point underdogs. Putting aside the history for a moment, I still can't believe Army was getting points in that spot as it was a HORRIBLE situation for Navy, coming off a loss in the AAC Champ Game the Saturday prior. Army had its best team ever under Jeff Monken LY and was off a double bye. Once again this year Army is off a double bye (last played on Nov 18th!) and they now have a chance to exceed LY's win total as they come in at 8-3 SU. Navy is just 6-5 SU, off B2B losses to Notre Dame and Houston. In both games, the Midshipmen failed to top 17 points. 

Army's scoring average is way up this year (31.2 PPG), a high in the Monken-era. But that's a little skewed due to games against lesser competition such as FCS Fordham and Rice. In five of their 11 games, they've scored 21 pts or less, including the Air Force game, which they won in shutout fashion (21-0!). Their last game (52-49 loss to North Texas) was a wild one, but that type of game has zero chance of being repeated here. Navy has seen the Under go 5-1 this season outside of Annapolis. Their game vs. Air Force was a wild one (48-45), but the AFA also threw for a stunning 257 yds that day. Army has attempted a grand total of four passes in its last three games. For some reason, both teams chose to pass a lot against Temple, but other than that there's no instance of Army throwing for more than 80 yds in a game this year. Four games, they haven't had a single passing yard! 10* Under Army/Navy

10* Over Steelers/Bengals (8:30 ET): Along with the Patriots, the Steelers have somewhat "pulled away" from the pack in the AFC. They enter this game at 9-2, which is two fewer losses than every other team not named "New England." Tonight they look to continue their mastery of a Bengals team they have beaten five consecutive times, including 29-14 back in Week 7. I had the Over in that game, noting that (at the time) they were the only team in the league yet to have a single Over on its resume. The Under is still 8-3 in all Steelers' games this season, but all of a sudden the vaunted offense has awoken w/ B2B 30+ point efforts after not crossing that threshold even one time in the first nine games. I like the Over in the rematch as well.

Cincinnati started its season by being the first team since the 1930's to not score a single TD in its first two home games. That prompted a change at OC and since then, they've been okay, going 5-4 SU overall. They are off their second highest scoring game of the season, a 30-16 triumph over the winless Browns. Now, the Bengals two highest scoring games of the year have both been against Cleveland. Other than that, the offense has not topped 24 pts in any other game. But something to look for here is the propensity of the Steelers' secondary to give up big plays. Last week vs. Brett Hundley and Green Bay, Pittsburgh allowed THREE touchdown passes of 39+ yards. That was after giving up FIVE pass plays of 40+ yds the previous three weeks. So don't be surprised if Bengals' WR AJ Green has a big game tonight. Also, RB Joe Mixon is coming off a career-best day LW. 

On the flip side, the Steelers shouldn't have much trouble scoring in this game either. The Cincinnati defense ranks 28th in the league at stopping the run (126.6 YPG allowed), so Le'Veon Bell should have a big night. Yes, WR Antonio Brown (best WR in the league) is listed as questionable w/ a toe injury. But, whether he plays or not, does NOT affect this selections. It's a low O/U line, one that can easily be exceeded. 10* Over Steelers/Bengals

10* Under Stanford/USC (8:00 ET): From a pure power rankings perspective, there does appear to be some value here on Stanford, as most rankings I follow actually have them as the better team on a neutral field. Then there's the fact that the North Division Champ has OWNED the Pac 12 Title Game, winning all six instances. But, at the same time, there's "no running from" what the Trojans did to the Cardinal back in September when they won 42-24 at the Coliseum (as a 3.5-pt favorite). Furthermore, there is no denying - that situationally - this spot favors USC. After playing 12 straight reg season games w/o a bye, the Trojans are off one here and that's a big advantage. So even though I was on Stanford LW (big win over Notre Dame), I'm refraining from making a play on the side. Let's look at the total instead. 

USC had over 600 yds total offense (623 to be exact) in the earlier win over Stanford. That's an almost unheard of number against a David Shaw defense. It's not the only time USC has gone over 600 yds this season (did it to Arizona) nor is it the lone time going over 40 points (did it four times total). But here would probably be an appropriate time to bring up the old "rest vs. rust" debate. Earlier I spoke of the bye being USC's "friend" in this spot. But what if they start slow? Also, there is the fact that QB Sam Darnold, good as he is, turns the ball over more than you'd like to see. He already has three more interceptions than he did all of last year. Plus, his overall completion percentage is slightly down. I think Stanford's defense is going to play a lot better in this rematch and won't be surprised to see Southern Cal fail to finish off some drives, which is always key in betting an Under.

Bryce Love did play for Stanford last week and that was huge as the Cardinal upset Notre Dame 38-20 in Palo Alto. That was their highest scoring game in more than a month. Three of the previous four games saw the Cardinal offense fail to top 21 pts. It should also be noted the Stanford was outgained by ND (415-328), only to win the turnover battle, 3-0. QB KJ Costello threw a career-high 4 TD passes, something I seriously doubt we'll see again here. Stanford's final 2 TD drives both started inside the ND 30-yd line. Defensively, both touchdowns allowed were long pass plays, which is uncharacteristic for this defense. Love is of course still battling an ankle injury, which is likely to limit his effectiveness Friday night. I think we'll see a much lower-scoring game here compared to the first meeting. 10* Under Stanford/USC

10* Under Redskins/Cowboys (8:25 ET): This has the feel of almost an "elimination" game in the NFC playoff picture. We already know that the Eagles are a virtual lock to win the East as they have a five-game edge over both of these teams w/ only five left to play. The loser of this game will drop to 5-7 SU and in a top-heavy conference, that's tantamount to death. Both last played on Thanksgiving w/ Dallas getting blown out by the Chargers (third straight loss) while the Redskins snuck by the lowly Giants. Incredibly, the road team has won seven of the past eight meetings, including Dallas going to D.C. earlier this year (as a three-point favorite) and winning 33-19. The L4 matchups have also all gone Over the total (O/U line was 49.5 for that first meeting). 

These will not be the same two teams that faced off back in Week 8, specifically on the Dallas side. We know all about the Ezekiel Elliott suspension and what that has done to the offense. In the three games w/o him, the Cowboys have scored a TOTAL of 22 pts, no more than nine in any one game. Additionally, they have gained an average of just 235 yards per game during that three-game stretch. Elliott ran for his season high (150 yards) the first time around vs. Washington and had a pair of touchdowns. Since then, the Cowboys offense has scored a grand total of 2 TD's in the three games and they came 11 quarters apart. After taking a 7-0 lead on Atlanta in the first quarter back in Week 2, they did not find the end zone again until the 4th quarter on Thanksgiving (already down 16-0).

Nor is Washington the same here as they were last month. They have been besieged by injuries, particularly along the offensive line. That has obviously had an adverse effect on both QB Kirk Cousins and the running game. Last week, they gained just 322 total yards against the Giants and it should be noted that was a 10-10 game w/ just under four minutes to play. Washington has also been hit hard w/ RB Chris Thompson and TE Jordan Reed, two key components of the passing game, both out. With the line having "flipped" (Washington now favored), there's no value there, but w/ the total there is (even though it's several points lower than it was in that 1st meeting). Dallas' passing game ranks only 27th, so they're really limited in what they can do and the same can be said for Washington (due to injuries) as they have been held to 20 pts or fewer three times in their last five games. 10* Under Redskins/Cowboys

10* Over Texans/Ravens (8:30 ET): Only in the AFC and only in 2017 could both the Texans and Ravens both be in playoff contention. Both teams have put forth truly pedestrian seasons. Baltimore, off a 23-0 shutout of Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay, is now 5-5 and may actual control its own playoff destiny. Houston is 4-6 SU and even after last week's 31-21 win over Arizona, they're "up against it" due to being w/o their #1 QB, DeShaun Watson. Offense is both teams' albatross, but as a result, we have a very low total to work w/ Monday night. Conventional wisdom says to go Under here, but it won't take much to go Over either. I'm going "unconventional."

Even w/ Tom Savage under center, the Texans were still able to put up 31 points and 357 yards last week. A big reason for that was rookie D'Onta Foreman emerging w/ a pair of fourth quarter TD's. Now, it likely will be a challenge to run the ball against a Ravens defense that has allowed 45, 71 and 75 yards over land the L3 games. But, for the year, that same group allows 135 YPG rushing at home. So they can be run on. I admit that I am worried about Savage facing a secondary that leads the league in interceptions. But this also works both ways. We've seen this Baltimore defense find the end zone before, which is always a boon to Over bettors. Only two teams - Jacksonville and Detroit - can claim more defensive scores than the Ravens' five. Furthermore, they (Baltimore) are the ONLY team in the league to have BOTH a kickoff and punt return for TD to their credit.

Houston may not have any special teams TD's to its credit, but like Baltimore they have four defensive scores. So again, I'm almost "expecting" a non-offensive TD in this game. The Ravens have delivered two shutouts in the last three games, thereby "skewing" their overall point differential for the season. The offense has scored 20+ pts in five of the last six games and before last week, the team's previous five games all went Over the total. QB Joe Flacco "leads" the league's worst passing attack, but here he'll be facing a secondary that is 26th against the pass. So Monday night very well could be his "coming out party." 10* Over Texans/Ravens

8* Over West Virginia/Oklahoma (3:45 ET): With one team (WVU) w/o its starting QB (lost to injury) and the other (Oklahoma) w/o its (likely Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield) for an undisclosed amt of time due to his sideline behavior LW, the knee-jerk reaction here would be to call for an Under. But I've always fashioned myself as a "contrarian" of sorts and wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see more points scored than expected. Stripped of his captaincy, Mayfield could miss as little as a series. Kyler Murray will start the game and has experience playing two years ago while at Texas A&M. This Sooners' offense leads the nation w/ 588.7 yards per game and is #5 in scoring at 44.0 points per game. They've gone over 40 four of the last five weeks, the exception seeing them score "only" 38 against a very good TCU defense. 

West Virginia is in a bit of a dicier situation w/ QB Will Grier lost for the year. They scored only 14 pts last week in an upset loss to Texas in Morgantown and that was w/ Grier playing a quarter. They gained a season-low 295 total yards. But that Texas' defense is a lot more stout than Oklahoma's. In Grier's absence, in steps Chris Chugunov. He threw for 189 yards in relief of Grier last week and I expect a MUCH better showing here now that he's not being thrust into playing w/o preparation. A full week of practice can go a long way. Even after last week's 41-3 thumping of putrid Kansas, OU is still allowing an average of 25.2 points per game. 

It appears as if I'm not the only "contrarian" when it comes to playing this total as despite a majority of tickets being written on the Under, the O/U line has gone up during the course of the week. That's usually a good sign. I think we can look for the Sooners to score plenty here as Mayfield should get into the game sooner rather than later. They have three receivers w/ 649+ yards and two running backs that will have 600+ yards rushing. With West Virginia, Dana Holgorsen largely runs a "plug and play" system, meaning any QB he's recruited should pan out. This is an offense that has averaged 544 YPG on the road this season. Last year, the game was 56-28 (in Oklahoma's favor). The year before, here in Norman, it was 44-24 (again in OU's favor). In fact, four of the previous five meetings have seen at least 68 total pts scored. 8* Over West Virginia/Oklahoma

10* Over Baylor/TCU (12:00 ET): These two Texas rivals are in VERY different places right now. Baylor HC Matt Rhule inherited a complete mess, left over from the Art Briles' regime. A Bears team that won 10+ games four times from 2011-2015 dropped to 7-6 SU last year, a direct result of Briles' misdeeds. We knew it would be "tough sledding" for Rhule in year one, but I don't think that anyone Waco foresaw a 1-10 record w/ ZERO Big 12 victories. Yet that's the reality entering this, their season finale. Meanwhile, coming off their own down year (6-7 SU in '16), TCU was on my shortlist for Most Improved Teams in the country (they were my top win total pick at Over 7.5) and sure enough, Gary Patterson's Horned Frogs have delivered w/ a 9-2 SU record. A win Friday and they would earn a rematch w/ Oklahoma in the Big X11 Championship Game (back this year!) next week.

Given what's at stake for TCU and the state of Baylor, the pointspread is predictably high here. It actually may not even be high enough as according to my own power rankings, there are at least couple points of value w/ the Horned Frogs here. But even though I cashed Oklahoma last week minus a huge number, I typically don't like laying this many points and won't in this situation. If there's one commonality these teams share (besides both hailing from Texas), it's that they've been going Under a lot in Big XII play. TCU, thanks to not allowing a single second half TD in the last five games, has gone Under in seven straight games. Baylor is riding a four-game Under streak. That confluence has created a situation here where the O/U line is probably a lot lower than it ought to be and thus Over is going to be my play Friday as TCU should have no problems scoring here and could possibly go Over the total by themselves.

Playing w/o QB Kenny Hill and RB Darius Anderson (out for year), the Horned Frogs beat Texas Tech 27-3 last week in Lubbock. Despite the lopsided victory, they were actually outgained as they threw for only 85 yards. Of course, when you allow only three points, you don't need to pass much. The offense did run for 200+ yards, which is impressive. Here in Ft. Worth, TCU averages 43.4 PPG for the season, so like I said earlier, they are more than capable of sending this game Over, almost by themselves. HC Patterson has said that Hill is probable to play. Teams are relishing the opportuniity to beat up downtrodden Baylor right now and last year saw the Horned Frogs hang 62 on them in Waco. The Baylor defense is allowing over 450 YPG for the season. As for getting "any help" from the Baylor offense, I suspect that when the game inevitably gets out of reach late, there will be opportunities for them to score. They do come in averaging 24.5 points per game. 10* Over Baylor/TCU

8* Over Giants/Redskins (8:25 ET): The Giants have just two wins this year, but both came as double digit dogs against an AFC West opponent (Denver, KC). The latest came last week, 12-9 over the Chiefs in overtime (upset of the year?). Sadly, this week's opponent is not a DD favorite nor is it an AFC West team. It is a familiar foe though, that being NFC East rival Washington, who itself is trying to pick up the pieces following losses in four of the last five games. They do own wins over the Rams and Seahawks (both on the road!) and should have beaten New Orleans LW, only to wilt in the final minutes of regulation and lose in OT. (So both teams are coming off OT games and playing on a short week). My "gut" says Washington wins here, but I don't want to lay points w/ a team that is only 1-4 ATS at home. Therefore, we turn to the total. 

It's been well-established that the Giants' defense is nowhere close to the unit that we saw last season. I can't say that I'm surprised. They made the quantum leap from 30th to 2nd in DVOA last season and thus regression was all but inevitable. Aside from the two wins, they've allowed 24 or more points in six of the seven losses, Week 1 being the exception. Remember that two weeks ago, they allowed 476 yards and 31 points to the previously winless 49ers. Last week, Big Blue was the beneficiary of some windy conditions as the Chiefs still elected to throw the ball roughly 60% of the time, playing right into the underdog's hands (good ol' Andy Reid). Quite frankly, this Giants' defense is lucky to "only" be allowing 24.7 points per game this year as they are 31st in yards allowed.

Washington's last two games have seen both they and the opponent score 30 or more points. Obviously, both games went Over. Last week was a brutal loss as they lost 34-31 to the Saints in overtime after taking a 31-16 lead w/ just over six minutes to go in the fourth quarter. They gave up both TD's in the final three minutes of regulation (and a 2-pt conversion) and wound up allowing 535 total yds of offense. There is hope here for the beleaguered Giants offense as the 'Skins are 31st in scoring defense at 26.6 PPG allowed. Both teams are very banged up right now (on both sides of the ball), but I see this one going Over the total. 8* Over Giants/Redskins

8* Over Ravens/Packers (1:00 ET): Green Bay treated me last week as I was sure to note the Chicago team they were playing had not been favored in almost a year and not over the Pack dating back to 2008! Sure enough, despite the absence of Aaron Rodgers, GB pulled the "upset," winning 23-16 at Soldier Field. Now they're back at Lambeau to host a Ravens team fresh off its bye. Baltimore is only 4-5 SU in what has been an "up and down" season thus, but they're more than just alive in what is shaping up to be a top-heavy AFC where there's probably going to be at least one pretty ugly playoff entrant (maybe them?). So much of the focus in Baltimore has been on an offense which ranks 30th in the league, but they've faced a pretty impressive slate of defenses thus far and the Over is still 5-0 their last five games. Take the Over here. 

Four times this season, the Ravens have had to faced a top 10 defense (Jags, Steelers, Bears and Vikings). They've lost all four games and averaged only 14 PPG. But they're 4-1 SU otherwise and averaged 26.8 points in those games. The Green Bay defense is certainly nothing special, ranking 18th overall. So I look for more of the "good" Baltimore offense this Sunday. Also, do not discount the likelihood of a defensive score (or two!) here, facing an inexperienced QB like Hundley. Two weeks ago against Miami (who was starting Matt Moore), the Ravens returned two interceptions for touchdowns. In a game against Chicago earlier in the year, they got two special teams TDs. Four of the last five games, this team has put at least 20 points on the board.

The Packers had not topped 17 pts since Hundley took over for Rodgers, until last week. Now, off a win, I wouldn't be surprised if the QB started playing with more confidence. Though its unlikely they'll make the playoffs w/o Rodgers (NFC is deeper than the AFC), the Pack aren't finished yet. Their last two games have gone Over as have five of the previous seven. Defensively, they've allowed at least 239 yards passing each of the last five games. Last week, they gave up 297 to Mitchell Trubisky, which was 133 more than the rookie's previous career high. So this could be a big game for Flacco. Baltimore has not been a healthy team this year, but off the bye, they're as healthy as they've been at any point in 2017. This is a low O/U line, the likes of which they've been topping of late. For Green Bay, it's the lowest of the season to date. 8* Over Ravens/Packers

8* Under Kentucky/Georgia (3:30 ET): This is an absolutely terrible spot for UGA to be laying this many points as they come in off a humiliating loss LW to Auburn, 40-10, as a defense which ranked among the best in the country was torched for almost 500 total yards. That loss sent the Bulldogs tumbling down from their #1 ranking in the CFP to #7. Now they find themselves in the unenviable spot of "biding their time" between now and the SEC Champ Game (will play either Alabama or Auburn) while hoping just to skirt by the next two opponents. Normally, I would consider a play plus the points here, but I don't have that much respect for a Kentucky squad that is nowhere near as good as its 7-3 SU record might indicate. Therefore, to the total we go and I'm thinking Under.

The SEC is having itself a down year. There are five Top 25 teams in the league, four of them in the West. Kentucky has been one of the real beneficiaries of the "down year" as they've avoided virtually all of the big names from the West (save for Miss St, who clobbered them 45-7). Strangely, despite the better than expected straight up record, the 'Cats are only 3-7 at the betting window. They did cover LW in an impressive 44-21 win over Vanderbilt (as 2.5-pt road dogs), but as we saw in the trip to Starkville, I'd expect a pretty substantial decline in offensive production here. Mississippi State held them to only 260 total yds in that game and let's also note UK was held to only 228 total yds by Eastern Michigan and 254 total yards by Southern Miss. 

Georgia's defense should be supremely motivated after what happened last week. Despite the shellacking LW, the Bulldogs still do rank #2 in the land in def efficiency, which should tell you how well they'd performed prior to the one loss. In fact, it was just the second time all season that they'd allowed more than 19 pts in a game! They are giving up averages of only 14.5 points and 277 yards per game for the season. So a Kentucky offense which has played on a natural surface only twice all year and averaged just 15.0 PPG in those contests, should be held in relative check here. The only thing holding UGA back is the offense, which can run the ball effectively, but is still being led by a relatively inexperienced signal-caller. The gameplan was very conservative last week and it cost them. Kirby Smart knows he can get away w/ being conservative again this week though. QB Jacob Fromm completed less than 50% of his passes LW and for just 184 total yards. 8* Under Kentucky/Georgia

10* Over Titans/Steelers (8:25 ET): Hey! We actually have a relatively attractive Thursday night matchup for once. Don't think for a second that Tennessee is as fortunate to be 6-3 straight up as their negative (-8) point differential might suggest. That's still owed to one, ugly 57-14 loss to Houston back when the Texans still had DeShaun Watson at QB. Also. the Titans lost Marcus Mariota to an injury in that game. Since Mariota returned, they've won four straight (three by four points or less!) and "looked the part" of a playoff team. What I do find interesting here, however, is the Steelers' 8-1 Under record. They have an offense that many thought would lead the league in points per game, but instead they're averaging only 20.8 PPG and have exceeded that average only twice in the past six games. Yet, I'll take the Over here. Why? Read on! 

Last week marked that vintage lackluster road game that Steelers' fans have become all too familiar with during the Mike Tomlin era. As double digit favorites, they actually trailed the Colts 10-0 before coming back to win 20-17. They didn't even score until the final seconds of the first half when Chris Boswell kicked a 41-yd FG. Boswell then won the game w/ a second field goal w/ no time remaining. Despite what you're just read, I'm still a buyer on this offense. You can't really blame Le'Veon Bell holding out anymore as he currently is the league leader in rush yards (840), even though roughly 10% of his attempts have gone for zero or negative yardage. He is facing more defenders stacked in the box, but (theoretically) that should start to open the passing game. 

Tennessee, on the other hand, has gone Over in six of its last eight games. They've topped 30 points three or more times during that span and that's out of seven games w/ Mariota in the lineup. Last week, they rolled up over 400 total yards in a 24-20 win over Cincinnati that required a fourth quarter comeback. They had 27 first downs to Cincinnati's 15. They would have scored more, but fumbled at the goal line after an 11-play, 6:13 drive. Also, in the first half, kicker Ryan Succop missed for the first time inside the 50 in 48 tries after another long, 11-play drive. This is a pretty low total considering the Titans have allowed 20 or more points three of their last four games. The one time they didn't was against Cleveland. 10* Over Titans/Steelers

10* Over Tulsa/South Florida (7:30 ET): It's been a rather steep decline for Tulsa this season, but that was largely to be expected. Last year, the Golden Hurricane went 10-3 SU including a 55-10 bowl win over Central Michigan. But that team also boasted a 3,348 yard passer, a 1629 yd rusher and TWO 1,000+ yd receivers. All of those players departed and as a result, they come into this game already w/ no shot at bowl eligibility as they're just 2-8 straight up (0-4 in games decided by six points or less). Yet, they still actually average a healthy 31.0 PPG. The problem has actually resided on the defensive side of the ball where they're giving up 38.0 PPG. That's going to be an issue facing South Florida, but w/ a big pointsread, the better move is to the Over.

USF came into 2017 w/ a new head coach (Charlie Strong) and visions of grabbing that coveted "Group of 5" spot in a "New Year's Six" Bowl. They still have a shot at doing so, but a home loss to Houston several weeks back really put a damper on those aspirations. Still, the Bulls do control their own destiny as they'll play at undefeated UCF next Friday. Win their final two regular season games + the AAC Title Game and it will likely be USF that is in a major bowl game. Willie Taggart certainly did not leave an empty cupboard for Strong as the offense is averaging 39.1 PPG (actually slightly down from LY) while the defense gives up just 19.9 PPG, which is way down from last year.

These schools have met only one time (2014) and in that game, USF pulled off the greatest comeback in its history, rallying back from a 27-7 halftime deficit to win 38-30. I expect similar fireworks Thursday night in Tampa. Save for the one loss to Houston, this USF offense has been remarkably consistent w/ 31 or more points scored in every game. I don't anticipate Quentin Flowers and company to have much trouble moving the ball on this woeful Tulsa defense, which is giving up 46.6 points and nearly 600 yards per game on the road. For the year, USF is averaging just over 500 YPG and they topped 600 in the last game w/ QB Flowers setting a career best w/ 385 yards passing. It's all a question if Tulsa can put enough points on the board as well and I think they can. They have the 15th best rush offense in the country (248.7). Unfortunately, USF is 7th (277 YPG) in that same department. The USF offense should be able to move the ball at will here while Tulsa will move it enough times to get the game Over the total. 10* Over Tulsa/South Florida

10* Over Dolphins/Panthers (8:30 ET): Calling the Dolphins "the worst 4-4 team in NFL history" might sound like a meaningless distinction, but it's certainly not hyperbole. That .500 record comes in the face of an ugly -63 point differential, which ranks right near the bottom of the league. This sort of overachieving is nothing new for this franchise, at least recently. Last year, they may have qualified for the playoffs, but were a complete fraud in doing so. They were outscored again, despite going 10-6 SU in the regular season. This all may make it sound like I'm poised to play against them here, but in anticipation of some close losses forthcoming, I'll actually refrain from doing so. As you can see, the oddsmakers share my view of these Fish and it's a heavy price to pay to fade them in this spot. Therefore, we turn to the total and it's the Over I like here.

Carolina enters this game at 6-3 SU, but has hardly been impressive as they've outscored opponents by just a nine-point margin over the course of this season. They've scored just 40 pts over their L3 games and average only 18.8 PPG for the year. However, an offense which could not run the ball at all suddenly exploded last week against Atlanta for 201 yards over land. But it's been a defense that ranks near the top of the league in scoring that's really carried the team this year. They allow just 17.7 points and 274.1 yards per game, ranking in the top five in both categories. On paper, you have to like this matchup for the Carolina defense as they face a Miami offense that is - statistically speaking - the worst in football.

That dynamic would have you thinking Under, which is the way the L3 Panthers games have all gone. But prior to that they went on a 4-game Over streak. Miami's season has been just the opposite w/ them starting 5-0 Under and the L3 games all going Over. So something will have to give here. This will be the lowest O/U line for either team this year, assuming it holds (it should), and could wind up the lowest O/U line for any NFL game YTD. (The first two Texans' games both had O/U lines of 38.0). The Dolphins have been shut out twice this season, but one of those games still went Over as they allowed 40 to Baltimore, two weeks ago, also in primetime. Four of the five all-time meetings between these teams have stayed Under, but I'm going to call for Carolina to score more than expected here and Miami will score enough to help send the game Over. 10* Over Dolphins/Panthers

8* Under Chargers/Jaguars (1:00 ET): Is Jacksonville for real? There are a number of teams this year the public needs to take w/ a proverbial "grain of salt," this one among them (not to mention Rams, Saints, Vikings, Eagles). But there is no disputing this Jags' defense is #1 in the league in scoring (14.6 PPG allowed). The result of that is one of the top overall scoring differentials in the league (+89, tops in AFC). I find the scoring differential metric to typically be an excellent predictor of future success, so maybe the idea of printing playoff tickets in Jacksonville should be taken seriously? I certainly love this matchup for that #1 overall scoring defense and will be on the Under this week. 

Why do I love this matchup so much from the Jags defense's perspective? Well, for one, the Chargers' offense is far too predictable. Secondly, Philip Rivers is as immobile as any QB in the league. That's certainly a bad combination when facing a defense allowing a league-low 156 yards passing per game w/ 35 sacks (most in the league) to boot. Furthermore, the propensity of this Chargers' coaching staff to stubbornly run the ball on 1st down, despite a lack of success, is a concern here. LA comes in averaging only 18.8 points per game. Shockingly, that's tied for 22nd (scoring way down this year), but it's still not good. They have scored more than 21 pts only two times all season. 

Jacksonville's defense won't be the only stout one in this matchup. The Chargers have a pair of strong rushers on the edge - Melvin Booker and Joey Bosa - who have 17 sacks between them. Expect them to add to that total here w/ the Jaguars potentially being down as many as THREE starting offensive lineman. Both starting guards and RT Jeremy Parnell were limited in practice this week. Remember, this is a "fresh" Chargers' defense, one that allowed an average of just 12.3 points the L3 games before the bye. As much as Jacksonville might be "for real" in 2017, I still put little faith in QB Blake Bortles. Only two Jacksonville games all season have seen more than 44 total pts scored. In a 30-9 win earlier this year vs. Pittsburgh, it was the defense supplying two of the three touchdowns. This game will be ruled by the defenses, which are - easily - the two strongest units in the matchup. 8* Under Chargers/Jaguars

8* Under West Virginia/Kansas State (3:30 ET): The Big XII currently has no teams in the top four in the playoff rankings, but the winner of Saturday night's game between TCU and Oklahoma (who are tied for first place in the conference) will almost certainly be ranked no lower than fifth come next Tuesday. Behind those two are a number of teams jockeying for position, including the two here, who have become almost afterthoughts. West Virginia is 6-3 w/ two of its losses coming by a touchdown. They average 40.2 PPG, but it was the defense that ruled the day in LW's 20-16 win over Iowa State in Morgantown. This week, they face Kansas State in the "Little Apple" (Manhattan), a team that is not known for scoring, but ironically is off a 42-35 win over Texas Tech last week. Oddsmakers have pretty high expectations for the amt of scoring in this game, but the fact is none of the last four meetings have been very high scoring. I'm on the Under.

WVU was actually shut out in the 2H last week, something we don't see very often. But it didn't matter as the defense held Iowa State to just 350 total yds, perhaps the Mountaineers' signature defensive effort this year. After facing a string of top-flight offenses (TCU, Tex Tech, OK State, Iowa State), perhaps Kansas State will be a reprieve. Granted, the Wildcats have scored 30 or more in all but two games this year. But the two they didn't, they were held to just single digits. Last week, KSU needed a TD + 2 pt conversion in the final minute to force OT against Texas Tech (trailed 35-27). They also needed a defensive TD (INT return). Making the rally all the more improbable is the fact it was led by a third string QB, Skylar Thompson, who will now be Bill Snyder's starter moving forward. 

Kansas State only ranks 99th nationally in passing yards per game, so with a third-stringer at the helm, I don't expect much from them through the air in this game. That could mean trouble, because LW's defensive performance from WVU included them allowing just 101 yds over land. I do expect Will Grier and the Mountaineers' offense to move the ball here, but won't be surprised if they're held to field goals by a KSU defense that ranks 2nd in the Big 12 in red zone efficiency. As mentioned before, recent meetings between these two have been lower scoring than expected. Last year, it was 17-16 WVU in Morgantown and the most points scored in any of the L4 meetings was 47. 8* Under West Virginia/Kansas State

10* Over Ball State/Northern Illinois (7:00 ET): To say that it's been a long season in Muncie would be putting it quite mildly. Ball State, by most objective measures, is one of the five worst teams in America. They are 2-7 SU and getting outscored by over 21 PPG. One of the wins was against FCS Tennessee Tech back on Sept 16th. Conference play has been horrific. They've been outscored on average 51.2 to 9.2! Four times, they've given up at least 55 points including each of the L3 games. So, what I'm saying, is Northern Illinois should be feeling pretty good about its chances in Thursday night #MACtion. The Huskies had a four-game win streak snapped their last time out (by Toledo), so they were going to be in an ornery mood to begin with. Expect plenty of points from them here. 

Playing against Ball State will require a hefty price tag the rest of the way, so IMO, the total is the way to go here. Considering how many points per game BSU is allowing on average, the Over seems like an easy call and we may not even need much help from the Cardinals. The last three weeks have not only seen them allow 515 YPG, but 56.7 PPG. That scoring average exceeds the O/U line here, so them scoring may not even be a necessity here. What's truly frightening about the defensive numbers here, at least in the last two games, is that the opponents largely took the "foot off the gas" in the fourth quarter. Toledo had 51 pts through three quarters against them while Eastern Michigan had 49.

Northern Illinois' defense was torched in the last game as well, giving up 527 total yds. They only allowed 27 points, for which they should feel fortunate. Toledo had an 89-yard drive which ended w/ a fumble, plus two other long drives that ended w/ field goals. Now, normally the Huskies are pretty stout. Certainly, on paper, this may be the weakest offense they face all year. Three times Ball State hasn't even scored 10 pts in MAC play and their high is 17 pts. But, as already discussed, NIU can carry "most of the load" here. The last five meetings between these MAC West rivals have all been relatively high scoring w/ a minimum of 56 total pts scored. That'll do the trick here as NIU should threaten their season-high in points scored here (48 vs. Bowling Green) and if they do, then this will be an easy Over. 10* Over Ball State/Northern Illinois

8* Under Raiders/Dolphins (8:25 ET): No matter which QB they have at the helm, this Miami offense is one of the worst in the league. In fact, statistically speaking, they ARE the worst in the league as they're dead last in both yards gained and points scored. Of course, losing your starting QB in training camp will put any offense "behind the 8-ball." After Ryan Tannehill went down, the Dolphins paid Jay Cutler to come out of retirement and even though the WL record was fine (team started 4-2), the numbers remained ugly. Then Cutler suffered a rib injury, leaving Matt Moore to start last Thursday's game against Baltimore. The results there were disastrous as the 'Fins got shut out for the 2nd time the season, this one being a 40-0 loss.

Oakland is another of those teams that overachieved last year and thus I felt would be a disappointment in 2017. (That list also included Miami, the Giants, Houston and Detroit). Sure enough, when it comes to the Silver and Black, my pessimisstic outlook appears justified. The Raiders are just 3-5 SU and any goodwill earned by their 31-30 win over Kansas City two weeks ago, was instantly thrown away w/ a 34-14 loss at Buffalo last Sunday. That loss in Buffalo marked the FIFTH time in the past six games that Oakland was held to 17 points or less! It appears as if we were too quick to annoint QB Derek Carr as anything special and WR Amari Cooper (save for the KC game) is having a pretty bad year. The Marshawn Lynch signing reeked of "overrated" and it hasn't helped that the Raiders' offensive line is nowhere near as good as it was a season ago. 

Adding to Miami's offensive woes is that the front office just decided to trade away its leading rusher, Jay Ajayi. With Cutler not 100%, I'm just not sure how this team is going to find any kind of offensive success moving forward. Before giving up a combined 68 pts the L2 wks to the Jets and Ravens (includes two defensive scores by Baltimore), each of the Dolphins' first five games stayed Under the total. Oakland is averaging just 15 PPG on the road and in their last three games away from home (all losses), they've scored 10, 10 and 14 pts. They too fell victim to a defensive score (by the Bills) last week, which was one of three turnovers they had. So, like Miami, their defensive effort was not as bad as it appeared on the scoreboard. 8* Under Raiders/Dolphins

8* Over LSU/Alabama (8:00 ET): Just a few short weeks ago, it appeared as if LSU's streak of 16 straight years being ranked for the Alabama game was in jeopardy. But an upset of Auburn (at home) followed by a win at Ole Miss have them at #19. I'm not so sure they deserve to be ranked that high, but whatever. As for Alabama, the thought of them being unranked is simply unfathomable. The Tide come in ranked for the LSU game for a 12th straight time and they've won the L6, including 10-0 in Baton Rouge last season. The oddsmakers are NOT expecting a very competitive game here in Tuscaloosa this year, installing the Tide as three-touchdown favorites. I want no part of that spread, but do like the total and that's what I'll be playing Saturday night. 

The big story w/ 'Bama is never that they're ranked, but where they are ranked. The AP and Coaches both had them #1 all year, but the CFP committee slotted them at #2 in their initial rankings, which were released Tuesday. The difference between being #1 or #2 is pretty irrelevant for Nick Saban's team as they still control their own destiny due to a potential meeting w/ #1 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. To me, Alabama is the best team in the country, even though their schedule has not been particularly challenging. But they're outscoring opponents by an impressive 33.2 PPG margin. Their defense is tied for #1 in yards allowed per game (236), #1 in scoring (9.8 PPG allowed) and #1 in efficiency. But don't sleep on an offense that is better now than it was w/ Lane Kiffin's playcalling. They average 43.0 PPG and have scored at least 40 pts in all but two games this season. 

So for this game to go Over, LSU is going to need to do SOMETHING offensively. They have not scored more than 17 pts in any of the L5 meetings w/ Bama and as mentioned earlier, were shutout LY. But, I'll say this. The Alabama defense hasn't exactly faced a slew of great offenses. LSU ranks 16th nationally in offensive efficiency (Alabama is 4th!) and the previous four SEC opponents that the Tide have taken on, rank 83rd (Texas A&M), 86th (Tennessee), 45th (Arkansas) and 42nd (Vandy) in that department. In fact, the best offense the Tide have faced thus far (in terms of efficiency) would be Colorado State at #35! LSU scored 40 their last time out as well, beating Ole Miss by double digits. Note though that game saw the Rebels lose starting QB Shea Patterson for the year. The Tigers have allowed at least 23 points in five of the last six games and the one time they didn't was against inept Florida. So they're going to give up plenty of points here. I already mentioned that Alabama ranks 4th nationally in offensive efficiency. The previous highest ranking for an LSU opponent was Mississippi State at 20th and they put up 37 on Ed Orgeron's defense. 8* Over LSU/Alabama

analysis soon

8* Under Marshall/Fla Atlantic (6:00 ET): Conference USA has turned somewhat "upside-down" this year. Granted, this isn't all that shocking considering a number of teams (these two among them) profiled as dramatically improving here in '17. But the top three from last year - Western Kentucky, La Tech and Old Dominion - are all struggling (combined 5-8 in conf play). Middle Tennessee is battling key injuries. So that has opened the door for Lane Kiffin and Florida Atlantic to wrest control of the C-USA East Division at 4-0 SU w/ every win coming by two touchdowns or more. Regular clients of mine will recall me labeling this team as one of the most likely to improve from last year as Kiffin inherited the most experienced roster in the country.

Marshall had not lost a C-USA game until last week. In fact, their only loss had been to a ranked NC State team, on the road, and they covered the spread there. Like FAU, the Thundering Herd were very likely to improve coming off a 3-9 season as they'd won 10+ games each of the three previous seasons. But then last week happened and they were beaten 41-30 as 15-pt favorites by FIU in Huntington. It was a -3 turnover margin that doomed them there, thus negating a 505-401 edge in total yards. That said, they did trail 28-7 at half and 35-14 entering the 4th quarter before rallying late to make a game of it. There was a defensive score from FIU in the game plus Marshall converted a pair of two-point conversions. So scoring was a bit inflated. I bring that up because now we have the highest O/U line - by far - for any Marshall game this year. The Herd have scored 30+ three straight weeks, but still average just 28.4 PPG for the season. 

I absolutely expect a motivated Marshall team here. Their defense ranks near the top of the country in scoring, allowing just 17.6 points per game. (That's top 15). They'll need that defense to show up here against a FAU team that has scored 38 or more in every C-USA game so far. Special teams actually keyed the 42-28 win over WKU last week, a game in which the Owls actually trailed 28-20 going into the 4Q.  The week prior, they were my *10* Game of the Week and scored on each of their first 11 drives (!) in a 69-31 beatdown w/ a conference record 804 yards! So this offense has been pretty impressive, needless to say. But this will be the best defense they will have faced since Wisconsin. Marshall allowed just 16 pts total in its first three C-USA games and has held four different opponents to 10 pts or less. If FAU isn't forcing TO's here, then they will struggle to score. 8* Under Marshall/Florida Atlantic

analysis soon

10* Over Bills/Jets (8:25 ET): This is a rematch from Week 1, when the Bills opened the season w/ a 21-12 win and cover (as seven-point chalk) in Orchard Park. But even with that result, you could say BOTH teams have drastically overachieved in 2017. Vegas still doesn't respect the Bills all that much, but looking at their schedule, it seems as if there's a pretty good chance this team makes the playoffs. Keep in mind I have an outstanding ticket on this team beating its projected win total (6.5), but in making that bet, I could not have envisioned them performing so well. As for the Jets, they were universally being called the worst team in the league coming into the season. But here they are at 3-4 SU, needing only one win to exceed the number of wins that the oddsmakers projected for them. With two overachievers, I'm refraining from a play on the side, and will instead make a play on the total.

Buffalo crushed Oakland last week 34-14 as three-point favorites. That win improved them to 5-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS. One area of concern I have for this game is that while the Bills are a perfect 4-0 SU at home, they're just 1-2 SU on the road. However, I am pretty convinced that they should be able to move the ball against this Jets defense. In Week 1, they rolled up over 400 yds against them, including 190 on the road. An offense that led the league in rushing last year again ranks near the top w/ 124.6 YPG this year (8th). On the other hand, the Jets' defense ranks 28th in stopping the run. The Bills' passing game just got a much needed "jolt in the arm" as well w/ the trade for WR Kelvin Bejamin. Wide receiver had been a real weak spot for this offense after a number of players at that position were dealt away shortly before the season started. Buffalo has scored 30+ points in B2B games and LW's 34 was a season-high. 

The Jets have lost three straight, but all of those were by seven points or less. The 12 pts scored in the first matchup w/ Buffalo still stands as a season-low as they've scored at least 20 in five of the previous seven games. But, at the same time, they've also allowed at least 24 pts in every game during the current losing streak. This is a pretty low number, not surprising as five of the previous six meetings have stayed Under the total. A big difference between this game and Week 1 is that the Jets average 373.5 YPG at home, way more than what they average on the road. Last week's game vs. Atlanta saw 30 point scored by halftime before a low-scoring 2H. This total is just too low in my estimation. 10* Over Bills/Jets

10* Over Texans/Seahawks (4:05 ET): DeShaun Watson has stepped in and counteracted what I felt would be inevitable regression for Houston in 2017. Last year's Texans may have finished 9-7 (SU), but they were outscored by 49 points over the course of the regular season and had only one win by more than 7 points (which came in Week 1!). The quarterback position has always been the "weak link" for this franchise, even predating current HC Bill O'Brien's tenure here. So Watson's emergence has been a godsend for the team and fanbase alike. O'Brien, known for having a quick hook to begin with, mercifully pulled Tom Savage in the first game. Watson's first start resulted in an ugly 13-9 win over Cincinnati, but since then the offense has averaged a whopping 39.25 points over its L4 games.

Off a bye, Watson and the Texans face arguably their toughest test to date w/ a visit to Seattle. Now, I say that knowing full well that they've already traveled to New England and played the Patriots close, in a 36-33 loss (were 13-pt dogs). But the Patriots' defense, even though it's improved the L2 games, is nowhere near as stingy as that of the Seahawks. With the exception of one game (33-27 loss @ Tennessee), Seattle has allowed 18 pts or fewer in every other game. They were off a bye last week and despite a slow start, were easily able to dispatch of the woeful Giants, 24-7 as four-point road chalk. QB Russell Wilson was very good, completing 27 of 39 passes, three of them for touchdowns. He finished w/ 334 yards overall.

There was a early-week line move w/ this total as others seem to be thinking similar to me (that the total opened too low). Houston's defense is w/o both JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus now, so that's something they should be concerned about. It hasn't really hurt them quite yet, although in losses to New England and Kansas City, they did give up a total of 78 points. Their two most recent wins came against Cleveland (inept) and Tennessee (Marcus Mariota hurt), so you can probably just go ahead and toss those defensive performances right out the window. Consider they did allow Brady to throw for 378 yds w/ a 71% completion rate and KC was able to drive inside the 35-yard line 9 times in 10 tries against them. Both of those games came w/ Watt and Mercilus on the field! So Seattle should be able to move the ball here and I think Watson and Houston will be able to "keep up" relatively well, leading to a pretty easy Over. Seattle's defense has been pretty lucky so far in that they've faced some pretty offenses: San Francisco, Indianapolis and the Giants, to name a few. 10* Over Texans/Seahawks