8* Under Memphis/South Florida (7:00 ET):  I talked a good deal about Memphis' game last week vs. Cincinnati in my analysis for Thursday night's Bearcats game against Miami, but I'll obviously rehash here. There were over 1300 total yards gained in a 53-46 final that went Memphis' way at the Liberty Bowl. That game, which was on national television, has clearly resulted in the expectation of a high-scoring game this Friday, but unless the Tigers are able to maintain their season average of 53.7 points per game (which I certainly don't think they will) than I see this one staying Under as this week's opponent isn't nearly as prolific offensively as their last two opponents. In fact, it's not even close. 

In two games against FBS competition, USF has only managed 31 total points and failed to top 300 yards either time. I went against them in their last game, which was two Saturdays ago at Maryland.  They finished that game w/ a pathetic 60 yards passing! Even w/ the benefit of three turnovers, the Bulls failed to move the ball much.  Of course, going back to the start of Willie Taggart's tenure here, offense has been an issue.  Last year's Bulls team averaged only 17.2 PPG and that was actually up from the previous year's woeful 13.8 PPG.  With only four returning starters on that side of the ball this season, not much improvement is to be expected. Out of a possible 27 games, Taggart's teams have been held to 17 pts or fewer a total of 18 times. That's atrocious. They've averaged just 15 PPG in a pair of losses to Memphis, by the way.

Memphis will score plenty in this game, even Taggart admitted so, but in what shapes up as a potential blowout, you have to wonder if Tigers' HC Justin Fuente calls the dogs off early.  Memphis' last two games have been wild shootouts, both decided by one score, featuring a lot of late, back & forth scoring. Last week saw a total of five touchdowns scored in the fourth quarter between them and Cincinnati. I look for a much different game Friday night. Also, with a bye week on deck followed by arguably the biggest game in the history of the program, vs. Ole Miss (at home!), don't discount the "lookahead" factor for the visitors here. 8* Under Memphis/South Florida

8* Under Ravens/Steelers (8:25 ET): When you think of the Ravens-Steelers rivalry, you think of tough, low-scoring games. But, somewhat surprisingly, the Over is 6-3-1 the past 10 matchups and in two of the three last year (remember, they met in the playoffs), the winner scored at least 30 points.  Even more surprising is that the Over is 11-4-2 the past 17 meetings here in Pittsburgh.  But then again, maybe all this shouldn't be surprising given how prolific the Steelers' offense has been in the past w/ QB Ben Roethlisberger at the helm. Therein lies the issue Thursday, however, as it won't be Big Ben under center for the Steelers, but rather Mike Vick and on a short week, in a new system, I don't expect much from him. Take the Under.

Baltimore is 0-3 and desperate. Though no consolation to them, they easily could be 3-0.  In every game, they had a lead late in the second half. Though defense has clearly been an issue the L2 games w/o Terrell Suggs, the offense is not w/o blame itself.  The opening game vs. Denver actually saw NO offensive touchdowns scored on either side. The L2 games have both seen a dramatic increase in scoring, but note LW vs. Cincinnati, it was a 14-0 game at the half and only 14-7 going into the fourth quarter! Heck, it was only 14-10 w/ just under seven minutes remaining and then both teams scored two touchdowns each to inflate the scoring. I'm still not convinced that the Ravens' offense is "out of the woods" yet, however, as one of their TD's again came from the defense.  Also, the Under is 8-1-1 following a game where QB Joe Flacco throws for 250+ yards passing.  With Gary Kubiak's zone blocking scheme off to Denver, the Ravens have had issues establishing the run w/ Justin Forsett.  In general, Flacco seems to be lacking weapons, save for WR Steve Smith.

Even with Roethlisberger on the field for the majority of the game, Pittsburgh scored only 12 pts last week. Once Vick took over, they did next to nothing, gaining just 49 yards total on four drives, none of which lasted longer than four plays. The only three points they scored after the Big Ben injury was set up by a Rams turnover. Again, I just don't expect much from Vick here at all. His work in a backup role last season in New York left a lot to be desired as he completed only 52.9 percent of his pass attempts and his QBR (ESPN stat) of 21.4 was the worst in the league among all QB's w/ at least 100 pass attempts.  This is his first year in the offense and a short week does him absolutely NO favors here. 8* Under Ravens/Steelers

10* Under Miami/Cincinnati (7:30 ET):  With all the scoring we've seen this year in College Football, high totals are becoming more and more commonplace. At some point this week, you may have read that the Over is 17-4 this season in games where the closing total was 70 pts or higher!  One such game took place last Thursday on ESPN as Cincinnati traveled to Memphis and the end result was a wild shootout that saw the Bearcats come out on the losing end, 53-46 (but I was still able to cash them plus the points!). Predictably then, we have a high total this week (that's already been bet up several points) as Cincy hosts a rested Miami team. With the expectation of a shootout, I'm seeing some value on the Under in this one as I seriously doubt the Bearcats will be able to replicate last week's incredible offensive performance.

Even after losing their starting QB (Gunner Kiel) early, Cincinnati was able to roll up a ridiculous 38 first downs and 752 total yards of offense! Backup Hayden Moore came in and not only threw for a Cincinnati record, but an AAC record 557 yards passing, and the team set several school records! Needless to say, they won't be duplicating that kind of production here, even though the Miami secondary is down two safeties for the first half (targeting penalties).  One key here is that Cincy has already turned the ball over 10 times (most in FBS) while the Miami defense has nine takeaways (2nd most), led by CB Artie Burns, who has gone on record saying he's picked up on a few of Moore's tendencies. The bottom line is that turnovers are drive killers and lead to an obvious reduction in scoring.  That is how this Hurricanes' defense can keep the Bearcats out of the end zone. 

"The U" comes in at 3-0 and off its bye week. They survived a nail biter their last time out, a 36-33 victory over Nebraska that required overtime after the 'Canes blew a huge fourth quarter lead. The defense, for 3.5 quarters, held Nebraska to only 10 points. The offense did score 40+ in its first two games, but that was against lackluster competition. This will be their highest total to date. Three times on the road last season, they were held to 17 points or less. To me, this is all about inflated expectations on how much scoring will take place. I look for a lower-scoring game than anticipated. 10* Under Miami/Cincinnati

8* Under Chiefs/Packers (8:30 ET): Green Bay isn't shy about scoring at home.  They scored at least 30 points at Lambeau Field in seven of eight regular season games last year, four times topping 40 pts. For the year, they averaged a whopping 39.75 points per game at home.  Now that we've got that out of the way, it's time to make the case for the Under. This sure seems like a classic letdown spot for the Packers as they are coming off a high-profile, revenge spot last Sunday night over the Seahawks.  They scored "only" 27 points in that win. While clearly a case could be made that "it's the Seahawks," note they were w/o safety Kam Chancellor and the Rams scored more against them the previous week. Kansas City has a strong enough defense to keep this game close - and low-scoring. Take the Under.

Both of the Chiefs' games so far have gone Over, but last week was clearly a "bad beat" for Under bettors. With under a minute remaining and a 24-17 lead on Denver (at home), the Under was still in play. But then they gave up a game-tying touchdown and then lost the game on a horrific Jamaal Charles fumble. There were actually two defensive scores in that game, one by the Chiefs, something that certainly cannot be counted on every game. Save for that last drive, the KC defense did its job last week as they held the Broncos to only 299 total yards. Opponents are struggling to run the ball thus far against the Chiefs (just 159 yds total), whose pass rush is also making life difficult for opposing quarterbacks.

Kansas City was kind to Under bettors in 2014, going 11-5.  The pass rush I just spoke of (eight sacks already) should have another big game tonight going against a Green Bay offensive line that's without its best player, Brian Bulaga. For the Packers, QB Aaron Rodgers is currently surrounded by a lot of skill position players that aren't 100 percent.  The one real negative w/ this Chiefs team is that on offense they lack a certain explosive capability in the passing game. QB Alex Smith is simply subpar at throwing the ball downfield. Unless Charles is ripping off long runs, it will take long, sustained drives for the team to put points on the board. 8* Under Chiefs/Packers

10* Over Redskins/Giants (8:25 ET):  Washington has played a couple of low-scoring games to this point (L 17-10, W 24-10) while for all intents and purposes, the Giants should be 2-0 Under as well (opener vs. Dallas went Over on GW drive). Despite this, and the fact that the Under has cashed in six of the past seven matchups between these two, I like the Over Thursday night.  This is a low total by today's NFL standards, especially when you consider the O/U line for both of the Giants' first two games closed at 50+ points. It's also relatively low when you look at the past history between these division rivals as every O/U line for those past seven matchups closed higher than what we currently have here. Take the Over.

I feel that the Giants are due to break out offensively. They gained almost 400 total yards in last week's 24-20 loss to Atlanta.  Odell Beckham Jr had seven catches for 146 yards, including a long touchdown, but was curiously silent down the stretch. Remember that in his one game vs. the Redskins defense last year, he had a monster performance w/ 12 catches and 143 yards w/ three touchdowns.  When the Giants were w/o him in the earlier season meeting, they still scored 45 points as Eli Manning threw five touchdown passes.  So this offense has certainly found success against this Washington defense in the past and I see no reason why it shouldn't happen again Thursday.

Now, the one concern for the Giants this week lies in the secondary where they could be short-handed. Top cornerback Dominique Rogers-Cromartie has a concussion and its unlikely he'd be cleared on a short week. Washington QB Kirk Cousins has yet to throw for more than 210 yards this season, but should pass that benchmark here. We may not end up needing many points from the Redskins offense anyway, if this game goes as I anticipate.  Also, the Over is a perfect 5-0 the L5 times Washington has been off an ATS win and 9-4 following a game where they allowed 15 points or fewer.  The Over is also 5-2 the L7 times the Giants have been off an ATS loss. 10* Over Redskins/Giants

10* Under Jets/Colts (8:30 ET): The Colts were held to only 14 points (shut out 1st half) in a surprising loss to the Bills this week and I think this matchup w/ the Jets presents a lot of the same problems for them. They will be going up against yet another stout front seven, so while the expectation will be for Andrew Luck (14-1 SU/ATS off a loss in his career) to bounce back, I think Indy could struggle yet again offensively.  As for the Jets, I wouldn't look for them to come close to matching the 31 points they scored last week against the Browns as that was somewhat of a byproduct of five Cleveland turnovers. What I look for instead is a pretty low-scoring, defensive-minded, matchup on Monday night.  Take the Under.

This would be a pretty high total for the Jets.  The highest closing total for any of their games in 2014 was 47, which happened a total of three times. The Under was 2-1 in those three games w/ the Jets averaging only 17.6 points per game.  In Week 1, three of the Jets' four TD drives were 30 yards or less, thanks to being set up by multiple Browns' turnovers.  It's unlikely that the enjoy such great fortune in B2B weeks. If they do find offensive success, it will come via running the ball (179 yds LW), but that likely means less explosive plays and the clock will be running.  From the Jets perspective, I think this total represents an overadjustment by the oddsmakers following a surprising Over in Week 1.

As for the Colts offense, they will likely struggle to run the ball again against a Jets' defensive front that is as good as any in the league.  Against Buffalo, Indy ran for just 64 yards and while some of that was falling behind, they averaged less than four yards per carry. The new acquisitions, WR Andre Johnson and RB Frank Gore, did next to nothing last week for the Colts, who were held scoreless in the first half. Turnovers were a problem as well with three. Seeing as the Jets forced five TO's last week, this doesn't exactly seem like an ideal matchup for the Colts' offense to get back on track.  The Jets held Cleveland to just 104 yds on the ground and that number is somewhat misleading in the sense that the Browns' leading rusher was actually QB Johnny Manziel w/ 35 yds.   10* Under Jets/Colts

10* Over Patriots/Bills (1:00 ET):  Since the start of last season, Buffalo has been the top Under team in the entire NFL, going 3-14 O/U in their 17 games. On the surface, that makes perfect sense as it's a team w/ a great defense and, at least on paper, an anemic offense. They just got done holding Andrew Luck and the Colts to all of 14 points in a shocking opening week win here at home, but now comes an even bigger test, that being Super Bowl Champion New England. While new Bills HC Rex Ryan has had some previous success vs. the Patriots, the bottom line is that since his first season w/ the Jets, the Over has cashed in 9 of 11 games where a Ryan defense has faced a Patriots offense. For New England, this is a very low total.  I'm on the Over.

After a slow start in the season opener, the Pats had no problem moving the ball against Pittsburgh, particularly when targeting matchup nightmare Rob Gronkowski. They made 26 first downs for the game and excluding an end of half situation scored a touchdown on four of six drives at one point before simply choosing to protect a two score lead. Looking at last season, there were only four instances of a Patriots' total being 46 pts or less.  Three of them went Over; the other was the meaningless regular season finale against these Bills (rested starters) where they were "held" to a season-low nine points. I'd pretty much disregard that result right there. In the first matchup w/ Buffalo, the Pats racked up 37 points and nearly 400 yards total offense. This is a team that scored 30+ points in half of its games last season.

This will be a much tougher challenge for Buffalo than Indianapolis was in Week 1, at least defensively.  Gronkowski didn't suit up against them in the second game last year, but still has 9 TD's in seven career matchups. On offense, I think QB Tyrod Taylor surprised a lot of pundits (myself among them) w/ a 14 of 19 day for 195 yards, including a long touchdown pass.  New England's secondary is not close to being what it was a year ago and will be more susceptible to giving up yards in 2015.  Also, the Bills' O/U record is due to start "evening out." The Over is 6-2 the L8 meetings between these two. 10* Over Patriots/Bills

10* Under Giants/Cowboys (8:30 ET):  The expectation here is a shootout.  I have actually gone on record and said that I expect the NFC East to feature a series of shootouts in 2015. With the exception of Washington, every team has an offense that is much further along compared to the defense. But this is also a high total for the 1st game. Granted, each of the last five Giants-Cowboys meetings have gone Over as have the last six here in Dallas.  But aren't all trends meant to be broken?  It helps that this total is higher than any of the previous five meetings.  Therefore, I'm on the Under Sunday night. 

No team ran the ball better than Dallas in 2014.  Much of that was owed to the league's best offensive line. But there's an issue with the running game entering 2015, that being who will actually be running with the ball. DeMarco Murray is gone to Philadelphia and left in his wake is a committee approach. It remains to be seen if that will be effective.  Last year, the Cowboys averaged 137.5 yards per game rushing against the Giants.  I do not believe they will approach that number Sunday night.   

  Eli Manning is poised to have a big year for the Giants. It's his second year in OC Ben McAdoo's system.  But he does not yet have a full compliment of receivers as it's looking more and more that Victor Cruz will miss this game. Expect Odell Beckham to still make a few big plays, but the onus will now be on Manning to force the ball to him. That likely leads to less consistency moving the ball.  Perhaps, the G-Men will turn to a more "ground and pound" approach themselves, which of course chews up clock and means less time of possession for the opponent.   The Under is 4-0-1 in Dallas' last five home games, by the way.  10* UNder Giants/Cowboys

8* Over Titans/Buccaneers (4:25 ET): This is a battle of the #1 and #2 overall picks from May's draft, both QB's, Jameis Winston for Tampa Bay and Marcus Mariota for Tennessee. I suppose the expectation is for each to struggle as they obviously went to teams that were really bad in 2014.  But w/ neither team's defense being particularly great either, don't be surprised if this game turns into a little bit of a shootout.  Because Tampa Bay was 11-5 Under a year ago (7-1 at home) and Tennessee 10-6, we're able to take advantage of a pretty low O/U line, in fact, it's currently tied for second lowest on the entire Week 1 board, just a half-point ahead of Seattle-St. Louis. All we need are six touchdowns in four quarters of play! Take the Over.

Tampa Bay had the worst offense in the league a year ago.  A major reason for that was the play at QB, from both Josh McCown and Mike Glennon.  Enter Winston, who is an immediate upgrade at the position.  While offensive line remains a question mark (starting two rookies), Winston does have some good talent to work w/ at the skill positions. His job will be much easier if RB Doug Martin gets back to the level he was at a few years ago. One player that I expect to have a big game Sunday is WR Vincent Jackson, especially if Mike Evans doesn't go. However, with a rookie QB, mistakes are going to be made. Of course, that applies to both sides in this game. I can imagine there being some turnovers in this game, which in turn leads to easy points for the other team.

Tennessee's offense was also terrible last year as they averaged only 15.9 points per game, fewest in the league.  But they too are set to improve on that side of the ball, if for only the fact it can't possibly get any worse.  Defensively though, the issues remain.  The Titans allowed nearly 30 PPG on the road last season. Both teams, in fact, allowed more than 25 PPG overall.  I just don't see this being the "snoozefest" that others might be projecting and Mariota & Winston will both play well enough to help push this one past the total.  8* Over Titans/Buccaneers

8* Under Steelers/Patriots (8:30 ET): Finally, this game has arrived and we can stop talking about deflated footballs (though I'm sure you can expect to hear plenty of that during the course of the game from the commentators).  Looking at the actual matchup, we have two playoff teams from a year ago, one of them the defending Super Bowl champion, both w/ prolific offenses.  But these season openers tend not to be all that high-scoring and given Tom Brady's in flux status throughout the preseason, plus the fact the Steelers will be w/o bellcow RB Le'veon Bell, I don't see this game being as high scoring as expected. Note that none of the L10 meetings between these two teams had seen an O/U line higher than this one. Take the Under.

If you were smart enough to be the Patriots when Brady's status was in doubt (line was -2.5), then allow me to "tip my cap" in your direction. But as much as the public expectation is for New England "to roll" here, I'm not quite as convinced. Brady spent about as much time in the courtroom as he did the practice field over the course of the summer and I would expect his rhythm to be off somewhat entering the season. Much will be made of Brady's dominance of the Steelers here in Foxborough, but I remain unconvinced that we'll see the same dominant Patriots offense that we're accustomed to seeing here. Brady is on the downside of his career and will be w/o at least one key weapon, that being WR Brandon LaFell, not to mention I'm not sure who the starting RB on this team will be. Like the Steelers, they will be w/o their starting center as well.

Speaking of being w/o key personnel, that is the story here for the Steelers, who won't have Bell, WR Martavis Bryant or C Maurkice Pouncey. Thus, an offense that was #2 in the league last year won't be operating anywhere near full strength tonight. Quietly, New England's defense allowed an average of just 17.2 points per game last season here at home.  Interestingly, the three games Pittsburgh played on turf last season were all pretty low scoring (42.6 PPG), particularly in the first half (19 PPG). I look for a relatively low scoring season opener. 8* Under Steelers/Patriots

10* Under Ohio St/Virginia Tech (8:00 ET):  So, here is what the Buckeyes have been waiting a full year for: a chance to avenge their lone loss from LY's National Championship campaign. At the time, losing by two touchdowns as a 10-point favorite looked really ugly and it was thought it was a setback OSU could not recover from. But they wouldn't lose again and capped things off w/ three consecutive upsets w/ third-string Cardale Jones at QB. The big story out of Columbus this year is who will start start under center. Braxton Miller, considered the team's best player going into 2014 isn't even in the discussion anymore (now a WR), leaving the decision down to Jones vs. JT Barrett. Both are likely to see time Monday night and I think this could be a bit of an issue moving forward for the Bucks as the two QB system could very well disrupt the flow of the offense. I like this year's game to be far lower scoring than last year. Take the Under.

Last year, Ohio State averaged an incredible 44.8 points per game despite having only four returning starters and using two quarterbacks w/ no prior starting experience. I understand that expectations are "through the roof" for this year's team, but I keep going back to HC Urban Meyer's indecisiveness between Barrett and Jones. Understandably, it is a very tough call. But until Meyer goes w/ one of them, I don't think the offense reaches its full potential.  Against this tough Va Tech defense last year, OSU averaged just 4.7 yards per play. Granted, that was Barrett's first start and he threw 3 INTs, one of which was returned for a touchdown.  Take that defensive score away & we have a final score Under the oddsmakers' projected total here. Also, this Hokies defense figures to be very good this year w/ a set of cornerbacks as good as any in the country + the team is an incredible 12-deep along the defensive line!

Virginia Tech's offense only gained 324 yards in last year's meeting on 4.2 yards per play. For the season, the Hokies averaged just 24.1 PPG, thanks to some dreadful efforts against Miami (FL) (lost 30-6 at home) and Wake Forest (lost 6-3 - in 2OT's!). Their strong defense will keep them in this game, however. Whether or not, they are able to cover against a Buckeyes team that comes in a 10-0 SU in revenge situations w/ an avg MOV of two touchdowns remains to be seen.  Watch for Hokies' DC Bud Foster to bring plenty of pressure, similar to last year's meeting, as that gave the Ohio State offensive line all sorts of trouble.  10* Under Ohio State/Virginia Tech

10* Over Colts/Patriots (6:40 ET):  Since Andrew Luck became the starting quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts, he has faced off w/ Tom Brady and the New England Patriots three times.  All three games have followed a predictable pattern:  Patriots & Over.  The final scores (again, all in favor of New England) have been as follows: 59-24, 43-22, 42-20.  Yes, the amount of scoring has come down w/ each passing matchup, but for this season's earlier matchup (played in Indianapolis) the total was 58.  For anyone doubting that high-scoring games can take place here in Foxborough, look no further than last week's 35-31 shootout vs. Baltimore. I anticipate a similar type game this week in the AFC Championship.  Take the Over. 

  There were two things I saw last week that lead me to believe we'll be getting a high-scoring game here.  One is that Tom Brady is unlikely to miss the kind of opportunities Peyton Manning failed to capitalize on vs. this Colts defense.  Manning, inexplicably chose to throw deep consistently against a defense that is pretty good at defending such throws. As a result, he was 2 for 14 on passes travelling more than 15 yards.  Where Indy's defense is susceptible, however, is in the short passing game and so I would expect a healthy dose of Rob Gronkowski.  Also, the Patriots should be able to run the ball here (200+ yards vs. the Colts in the regular season) w/ much more effectiveness than they did LW vs. Baltimore (just 14 yds) when they totally abandoned it b/c attacking the Ravens' pass defense was the way to go.  Meanwhile, Indy's ability to score points in this one hinges on its offensive line turning in a similar performance to last week. Considering there was more talent in the Denver front seven and the Patriots' pass rush failed to get home vs. the Ravens, I would expect Luck to have time to throw Sunday.

The Colts have now gone Under in six straight games, which I'd say is a bit of a surprise.  But then again, they haven't exactly faced the most prolific of attacks during that time, particularly w/ Manning being injured last week.  They caught another break vs. Cincinnati, whose receiving corps was depleted.  I mentioned how New England went for 200+ yards rushing at Indianapolis back in the regular season.  That was thanks to a career day from the now forgotten Jonas Gray, but remember in LY's Divisional Round playoff matchup, it was LeGarrette Blount also going for more than 200 yds over land.  So, expect New England's offense to be able to move the ball.  As for the Colts, they have the league's top passing attack (305.9 YPG), which will be needed to counteract a defense that gave up 27 or more points six times in the first 13 games.  10* Over Colts/Patriots

8* Under Cowboys/Packers (1:05 ET):  When you have an offense like Green Bay's that averages a whopping 39.7 points per game at home, you would expect that the Over would end up being a profitable bet here at Lambeau Field. And you would be correct in that line of thinking as the Over did go 7-1 in Packers' home games during the regular season. Somewhat interestingly, the one game that did go Under was vs. the Patriots. But this is the playoffs and w/ QB Aaron Rodgers at less than 100% (calf), I expect this game to be lower scoring than is expected.  It's a high number for a playoff game, one that will be very cold to boot.  I'm on the Under.

The Over was also 7-1 in Cowboys' road games during the regular season w/ them winning every time.  It's an 8-0 home team vs. an 8-0 road team in this one, and not only that but the Packers were the league's highest scoring home team and the Cowboys the highest scoring team on the road (34.4 PPG).  So while all signs point towards the Over, we do have an injured QB on one side (Rodgers) and the other offense is going to lean heavily on the run.  But while you might think the Cowboys have a big edge w/ their rushing offense, note that Green Bay actually was very stout against the run over the L8 games, allowing just 86.4 yards per game. The Cowboys ran for just 73 yds LW vs. the Lions and I won w/ the Under as they entered the 4Q w/ just 14 pts scored.

Dallas has allowed 17 pts or less six times this year.  I don't expect them to make it seven here, but I do believe they can hold the Packers below 30 points.  That's even though Rodgers has done quite well in the past vs. Rod Marinelli coached defenses.  This Packers' offense exceeded 30 pts just one time in the final six regular season games and w/ their QB not 100% it might be the team in green & gold that leans more heavily on the run game.   Meanwhile, many of Dallas' big point totals late in the season were a byproduct of facing some really bad defenses.  8* Under Cowboys/Packers

10* Under Ravens/Patriots (4:35 ET):  It's likely to be cold and windy Saturday evening in Foxboro, therefore there is going to be a natural lean towards the Under for most.  Typically, I'm not afraid to defy logic, but in this instance I'm inclined to agree.  New England went Under in five of its last six regular season contests and if it were not for a safety late in the game LW vs. Pittsburgh, then Baltimore would be coming into this game on a five-game Under streak. While it's the Ravens' defense that typically grabs the headlines (8th in yards allowed), the Patriots aren't too far behind, ranking 13th in the league.  I look for a lower scoring game than most are expecting, and thus am on the Under.

Over its last six games, the New England defense has not allowed a single touchdown in the second half, outscoring its opponents 67-12.   That's two points per game after halftime for those keeping score at home.   There were only three times all season where the Patriots allowed more than 25 points in a game and two of those came in the first four weeks.  In exactly half of their games (eight times), they held the opposition to 17 points or less.  Early on, the Pats remained a juggernaut for Over bettors, with the totals in their games falling the way eight times in the first 10 games.  But as mentioned above, they are 5-1 Under their last six contests and only a second half offensive explosion against Miami prevented that from being 6-0 Under.  Three of the team's last four games saw less than 40 total points scored.

As for Baltimore, their defense has allowed an average of just 15.5 PPG the L5 weeks.  Only in that ugly loss to Houston did they allow more than 17.  Allowing that few would be a minor miracle here, but I don't expect New England to score 30+ either.  Overall, the Ravens are allowing just 18.8 points per game this.  The Patriots have been even better, at home at least, allowing just 16.7.  Remember that Baltimore actually gained just under 300 total yards last week vs. the Steelers, who don't have a very good defense at all.  This is a Ravens offense that also struggled to score against Cleveland in the last regular season game, until late.  As for the Patriots offense, which led the league in points scored in the red zone, Baltimore's defense was 2nd best in the league at limiting points in that area of the field.  10* Under Ravens/Patriots

10* Under Lions/Cowboys (4:40 ET):   This will be a matchup of strength vs. strength as we have the top rushing offense in the league (Dallas) going up against the top rushing defense (Detroit).   That battle and the Cowboys' commitment to the run should help keep scoring down in this playoff matchup and as a result I'm looking for this one to stay Under the total.   Few teams were kinder to Under bettors during the regular season than were the Lions, who went 11-5 Under in their 16 games and that's w/ three of the last five going Over.  This total not only falls onto the "high side" of the spectrum of Lions' totals from the regular season, but is in fact the second highest for any game all year, the only one being higher ending in a very easy Under when they beat Green Bay 19-7 at home. 

While Detroit's defense is a major strength, a problem is that their offense averages just 15.6 points per game on the road, which is pretty bad.  The most points they scored in any road game this year was 24 points and that was against the Jets.  The only other time they topped 20 was against the Falcons over in London.   Three times they were held to single digits.  It won't be that bad this time around, but QB Matt Stafford's inconsistent play is becoming a concern.  If the Lions are to pull the upset here, it will be on the strength of their defense. 

That defense was historically great at stopping the run this year.  The fact that Ndamukong Suh had his suspension rescinded is a game-changer.  Led by Suh, the Lions allow just 69 yds rushing per game and do so at 3.2 yards per carry.  Despite this, Dallas is going to do its best to try and establish the run w/ DeMarco Murray because that's how it got to 12-4.  I see this creating a stalemate of sorts for most of the game and scoring to be at a minimum.  Needless to say, we won't see the Cowboys coming anywhere close to the point totals we've seen them produce over the last four games.  Look for a tight, low-scoring playoff game here.  10* Under Lions/Cowboys

10* Under Oklahoma State/Washington (10:15 ET): Both teams can probably claim disappointing seasons.  At least Washington can say they finished the stronger of the two by cashing four of their final five (won last 2).  Prior to pulling a major upset of rival Oklahoma, Oklahoma State had lost five straight and really had been dominated in every game. Another thing that the Huskies have going for them is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS record as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points the past three seasons.  But I'm not playing the side here, I'm looking at the total and I think that this number for the Cactus Bowl is just a bit too high.  During that aformentioned losing streak, OSU was held to 14 pts or fewer four times. Washington has been a strong team for Under bettors all season, going 9-3.  Take the Under.

I expect the Huskies' defense to play well in this game.  Their job is made easier by the fact Oklahoma State was forced to dismiss the hero of the Bedlam game, Tyreek Hill, who was arrested for domestic violence.  Hill's absence here could be huge.  Not only did he have a 92-yard punt return to tie the game vs. OU, but he's the team's starting running back. His replacement Desmond Roland never had a 100-yard game during the regular season and averaged just 3.8 yards per carry.  Washington's defense allows just 3.3 ypc on the year.  Another issue that the Pokes have is protecting the passer and that problem should be amplified in this matchup.  The offensive line allowed 37 sacks (3.1 per game) in the regular season (114th in the nation) and here will be going up against the nation's sack leader Hau'oli Kikaha (18.5), who anchors a pass rush that finished w/ 49 sacks overall on the year (2nd most nationally). 

While Oklahoma State's defense was known to give up points in bunches, Washington's offense was known to struggle as well.  They were held to 20 pts or less four times.  It's interesting that both teams regularly saw higher totals than this one during the regular season. While normally that might indicate a bit of value, I obviously don't think the oddsmakers would purposely set a bad line.  Look for a lower-scoring game than expected. 10* Under Oklahoma State/Washington

10* Under Ole Miss/TCU (12:30 ET):  Both of these teams had playoff aspirations, but a "New Year's Six" bowl matchup is a decent consolation and this is in my opinion the best non-playoff matchup of all the bowls.  TCU probably had the most legitimate argument for being "snubbed" as they came into the final weekend ranked #3 by the committee, but were lapped by Florida State (defending Nat'l Champs) and Ohio State (beat Wisconsin 59-0).  The Horned Frogs come in off an 11-1 SU regular season where they averaged a whopping 46.8 PPG, but here they'll be going up against the best defense they will have seen all year, the "Landsharks" of Ole Miss, who held teams to an average of just 13.8 PPG during the regular season.  I like the Under here in what will have the "feel" of a playoff game in Atlanta.

TCU just didn't face many top flight defenses during the year. The two best that it faced belonged to Texas & West Virginia.  Against those teams, the Horned Frogs averaged just 378.5 yards per game (164 YPG below season average) and turned it over a total of four times. They averaged only 5.5 yards per play as opposed to 6.8 against all other teams.  Ole Miss allowed just seven touchdowns ALL SEASON vs. Power 5 teams.   Their points allowed (again, 13.8 per game) led the nation. Auburn and Arkansas were the only teams to score more than 30+ against them.  They were third in opposing QBR, trailing only Louisville & Clemson, the latter of whom just shut down an Oklahoma team that TCU is more than familiar with. Only one team allowed fewer TD passes than did the Rebels, who also had 19 INT's, making their TD-INT ratio the best in the nation.  Ole Miss also ranks 13th in the nation in yards per play (4.6) and 11th on third down (68.9%) defensively.  

But if you're expecting Ole Miss to roll in this one, just because of their defense or due to them hailing from the vaunted SEC, you'd be wrong.  Their offense was shut out by Arkansas late in the year as they have no shot at replacing injured WR Laquon Treadwell, who broke his leg in the loss to Auburn.  His absence really hurt QB Bo Wallace the L5 games as he threw 5 INTs and completed just 55 percent of his pass attempts.  Ole Miss was 5-2 Under this year when the total was 50+ points and this will be among the highest O/U lines they've faced all season.  10* Under Ole Miss/TCU