8* Under San Diego State/Hawaii (11:15 ET): How the mighty have fallen in the Mountain West. Two weeks ago, San Diego State was unbeaten w/ a win over Stanford to its credit. That win over the Cardinal can't ever be erased from their resume, but the "0" that once occupied the loss column certainly has, as the Aztecs come in as losers of two straight. First they lost to Boise State, 31-14, in large part to giving up two non-offensive TDs early in the game. Then, clearly still feeling the effects of the hangover, they got boatraced last week by Fresno State, 27-3. I'm not about to lay points on the road w/ this bunch, at least right now, but what I do feel comfortable in projecting is a low-scoring game out on the Island this week, late night vs. Hawaii. Take the Under.

Hawaii is coming off a bye. They sure needed it, or at least their backers did, following five consecutive ATS defeats. Four of those were also straight up losses, but they did win the last game, 37-26 over downtrodden San Jose State. All three of the Warriors wins this year have come against either a FCS foe (Western Carolina) or a bottom 20 team in FBS. The other four games, they were held to 23 pts or fewer. I find it unlikely that they'll score even that many here against a San Diego State defense that has been very good for most of this season. The Aztecs are allowing only 21.7 PPG for the year and that number would be even lower if not for the multiple non-offensive TD's scored by Boise State two weeks ago. I'm not sure how to explain what happened LW vs. Fresno State, other than to say the offense surely didn't do its part.

With a total of just 17 pts scored the last two weeks, both of those games at home, SDSU is not exactly a prime candidate to lay points with right now, especially on the road. Hawaii does struggle to stop the run, but SDSU's offensive line is not at 100% right now, so they may not be able to take full advantage. The Under has hit in each of San Diego State's last three games, all on totals lower than this one. Last year, Hawaii did not score at all on the Aztecs' defense in an ugly 55-0 loss. It was their fifth straight year getting held to 21 points or fewer by them. 8* Under San Diego State/Hawaii

10* Under Tulane/Memphis (8:00 ET): "It was the best of times/It was the worst of times" wrote Charles Dickens back in 1859. But for 2017 Memphis football, it was not a "Tale of Two Cities," but rather a "Tale of Two Halves" last week in Houston. Trailing 17-0 at halftime, the (now) 24th ranked Tigers exploded after the break, scoring touchdowns on six consecutive drives en route to a rather stunning 42-38 road win. That put them in the driver's seat in the AAC West at 6-1 overall and 3-1 in league play. They'll be favored in all remaining regular season affairs and if they take care of business, that means a likely date w/ either UCF or USF in the Conference Championship Game where a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl Game will almost certainly be on the line.

Tulane provides Memphis' opposition this Friday night at the Liberty Bowl and they'll be looking to pick up the pieces following B2B losses for the second time this year. The Green Wave are 3-4 SU overall for 2nd year HC Willie Fritz, who has installed the option offense here. Three of Tulane's four losses came against opponents that have spent time in the Top 25 this year: Navy, Oklahoma and USF, the latter two obviously still residing there. So this will be no "walk in the park" for favored Memphis, despite what the line may say. That said, while last week saw the Green Wave cover, it only after falling behind USF 34-7 in the second half. Scoring the game's final three touchdowns made the final score a lot closer than it ought to have been and that came on the heels of the team's lone "ugly" loss this year, 23-10 at FIU, two weeks ago. 

This will be Tulane's fourth road game of the season and they have yet to break 21 points in any of the previous ones. In fact, the team's scoring drops nearly in half (15.0 PPG on the road vs. 28.4 PPG overall) and total yardage per game drops down to 264 (compared to 385.3 YPG overall). Memphis doesn't exactly have the most stout defense in the AAC, but they did face Navy less than two weeks ago, which at least familiarizes them w/ the triple option. The Memphis offense has obviously put up some big numbers thus far, but just as they won't be as bad as they were in the 1H vs. Houston last week, they also won't be as efficient as they were in the 2H. Six of the past seven meetings between these teams have stayed Under, none of them seeing more than 60 total pts scored. This will also be the highest O/U line for any of those meetings. It's also - pretty easily - the highest O/U line for any Tulane game this season. The Green Wave have not topped 14 pts against the Tigers in any of the last three years. 10* Under Tulane/Memphis

8* Over Dolphins/Ravens (8:25 ET): I didn't think Miami was anywhere near as good as its 10-6 (SU) showed last season, considering they were actually outscored by 17 points. Nor do I "buy into" this year's 4-2 SU start given they are -20 in point differential! This is a team "due" to regress in a major way and quite frankly, I don't see them winning many more games the rest of the way here in 2017. This all probably leads you to believe that I'll be fading the 'Fins in this Thursday night matchup at Baltimore. But I'm a little "gun-shy" in wanting to lay points here w/ the Ravens, who have their own set of struggles. I realize that neither of these two offenses are exactly setting the world on fire right now, but it's a REALLY low total for tonight, one of the lowest I've tracked for a TNF affair in several seasons, in fact. Therefore, I'm on the Over. 

The big story here for Miami is at the QB position where Jay Cutler has cracked ribs and thus won't play. Enter career backup Matt Moore, who actually owns a lifetime 20-7 ATS record as a starter. That's another reason I didn't want to lay even a short number here and in my opinion, Moore is not much of a downgrade from Cutler, if he is even a downgrade at all. He led the comeback last week against the Jets (31-28 win) and as we saw there, he is better than Cutler at getting the ball downfield. Truthfully, when Ryan Tannehill got hurt over the summer, I thought Miami was best sticking w/ Moore and not wasting its money on coaxing Cutler out of retirement. Expect the Dolphins to run the ball plenty in this matchup w/ Jay Ajayi and for them to be successful in doing so. Baltimore's once-heralded defense is currently last in the league at stopping the run, giving up an average of 145.3 yards per game. They've allowed 166 or more four of the past five weeks, including 169 last week to a Minnesota team that was w/o its starting RB. 

The Ravens are also dealing with injuries on offense, most notably at the WR position. However, they've still managed to go Over in three straight games (4-1 L5) thanks to low O/U lines such as this one. If the current number holds, and I suspect it will, this will be the fifth time already this year that an O/U line has closed at below 40 pts for them. So far, the Over is 3-1 in such contests. Having scored only one offensive TD in the last 10 quarters, I suspect we'll see some sort of breakthrough from Joe Flacco and the Ravens tonight. They also have an outstanding kicker in Justin Turner. Looking at the number from Miami's perspective, it is the lowest of the season to date, a good sign for a team that hadn't gone Over until last week! Moore threw two TD passes in the final 12 mins of regulation and his 188 yds passing for the game easily eclipsed Cutler's numbers. 8* Over Dolphins/Ravens

8* Over Seahawks/Giants (4:25 ET): The Giants pulled one out of their collective (you know where!) last week, somehow beating the Broncos 23-10 as 13.5-pt underdogs. It had been a long time since we'd seen an underdog of that size win a game straight up in the NFL (several seasons), but it actually happened TWICE last week (also Miami over Atlanta). How the Giants did it was forcing three turnovers and Denver missing multiple field goals. That's how you pull an upset of that magnitude while still being outgained 412-266. Needless to say, it was as stunning a result as we'll probably see all season. Of course, as you know, the Giants entered that game winless (0-5) and were w/o their top FOUR wide receivers. Now they have to take on the famed "Legion of Boom!"

Seattle is off its bye week here. Prior to it, they recorded their own somewhat fortuitious victory, 16-10 over the Rams despite being outgained 375-241. Like the Giants last week, the turnover margin was a huge benefit to the Seahawks in that game as they took the ball away from the Rams FIVE times. While Russell Wilson and the Seahawks' offense has struggled at times this season (scored 16 pts or less three times), they also scored 73 pts in the other two games. The Giants' defense, which carried the team to the playoffs a season ago, has really fallen off a cliff here in 2017. They've allowed an average of over 400 yards per game the last three weeks, so I expect the Seahawks to move the ball and score in this one. The Giants' defense had given up 24 points or more each of its four games previous to last week. 

Eli Manning only dropped back to pass 19 times last week, which was probably for the best given the lack of weaponry at his disposal now. One positive here though is that WR Sterling Shepard may return in time for Sunday. The Giants also need to continue to run the ball as they've gone over 100 yards on the ground B2B weeks for the first time this season. Obviously, we have a low total to work with here, and as we've seen so many times before, all it takes sometimes is for a defensive score to cash in. With the often turnover-prone Manning facing the vaunted Seattle defense, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see a 'pick-six' (or two!) in this game. 8* Over Seahawks/Giants

10* Over Bengals/Steelers (4:25 ET): Despite possessing what - at least on paper - looked to be one the strongest sets of skill position players in the league, Pittsburgh has seen the Under cash in all six of its games so far. It hasn't really hurt them per se, as they come into this divisional matchup w/ Cincinnati at 4-2 SU and in first place in the AFC North. Last week, they became the first team to beat the Chiefs this season, doing so on the road and in 19-13 fashion (held them to just 251 yards total). As for the Bengals, they're off bye. Prior to it, they won for me as a short home favorite, beating Buffalo 20-16. The Under is 4-1 in their games, but after infamously failing to score a TD in their first two home games, they've averaged a healthy 25 PPG over the last three weeks under new OC Bill Lazor. I feel there are enough "ingredients" in place here to send this game Over a low total.

The Steelers have averaged nearly 400 YPG over the L3 weeks. The matched a season-high w/ 26 pts in a beatdown of Baltimore in their last AFC North game. The following week saw them bit by the turnover bug (career-high 5 INT's from Roethlisberger) and they lost 30-9 at home to Jacksonville. But then came the big bounce back last week in Kansas City. Though they managed only 19 points, suffice to say it may have been the first game that the entire "Big 3" (Roethlisberger, Bell and Brown) all played well. Bell, who has gotten off to a slow start due to an offseason hold out, ran for 179 yards. Brown was his usual awesome self w/ eight catches for 155 yards. I believe it's only a matter of time before this offense regains "old form" and starts putting more points on the board.

I already mentioned the difference in Cincinnati's offense since the coordinator change. Not only have they averaged 25 PPG since Lazor took over playcalling duties, but they're also averaging 346.3 YPG. Now before we go complimenting either defense too much, be aware that both teams have faced a pretty weak slate of opposing offenses. Both have faced Cleveland, which is always a walk in the park. Both have also faced Baltimore. The Steelers got to face the Vikings w/ Case Keenum and the Bears w/ Mike Glennon. The run defense only ranks 23rd in the league currently (allowing 118.5 YPG). Historically, they've also struggled to defend Bengals WR AJ Green, who has four career 100+ yard days vs. the Steelers. Of course, the only WR in the league w/ more yardage receving this year would be Brown. Note that the totals for both meetings last year were significantly higher.  10* Over Bengals/Steelers

8* Under Panthers/Bears (1:00 ET): Carolina has to be itching to return to the field after losing what was billed as a battle of two NFC heavyweights last Thursday, at home, to Philadelphia. The extra time they get to prepare here should help, but they're on the road taking on a Bears team that is starting to find success at Soldier Field. Not only are the "Monsters of the Midway" 3-0 ATS at home this season w/ two outright upsets (nearly three!), but they're 7-2 ATS the last nine times taking points here. So I'm not about to lay points on the road. Instead, I'll look at the total, which is low but probably not low enough. We've got two surprisingly strong defenses and as I'm about to get into, the fact each team went Over (the total) last week is a tad bit misleading. I'm on the Under.

Chicago upset Baltimore last week, 27-24, as six-point road underdogs in overtime. The 24 pts they scored in regulation matched a season high. But that also comes w/ a caveat in that they scored on a 90-yard INT return. In fact, that game featured more non-offensive scores (3) than actual offensive TD's (2) as the Ravens scored both via special teams and defense (when was the last time you saw that?). So the Bears defense actually didn't give up a single touchdown in the win! This group is very underrated as they've held each of the last four opponents to 300 total yards or less. I'm hardly surprised that HC John Fox, who has a history of turning around defenses at every stop, has this one playing much better in 2017. As for the Bears offense, well, it remains a "work in progress." I know there's a sense of optimism surrounding rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky now starting, but the bottom line is the Bears' receivers are terrible and no QB, let alone a rookie, figures to thrive here. 

While Chicago is holding opponents to roughly 52 YPG below their season averages, Carolina has been even stingier, holding its opponents to 77 YPG below their season averages. That's a league-best number. I know that ace linebacker Luke Keuchly won't play here, but still, points should be hard to come by for both teams on Sunday. On offense, Carolina's run game has been terrible the past two weeks w/ running backs gaining just 32 yards on 33 carries (that is not a misprint!). Last week, their leading rusher was Cam Newton, who had 71 yards on 11 carries. That was a 10-10 game at halftime, but an early second half turnover by Newton, plus the loss of Keuchly really put the Panthers' defense behind the proverbial 8-ball. Fortunately here, they've had time to prepare to play w/o their star LB and they won't be facing the Eagles' offense, they'll be facing that of the Bears. 8* Under Panthers/Bears

8* Under Saints/Packers (1:00 ET): The last eight times the Saints and Packers have played, the Over has cashed. That streak actually dates back all the way to 1995. But there's a big caveat this time around and it has to do w/ who will be under center for Green Bay. Or rather who WON'T be. It won't be Aaron Rodgers (or even Brett Favre), instead it will be Brett Hundley as Rodgers is done for the year w/ a broken collarbone. Needless to say, this is a crippling injury - both literally and figuratively - for the Pack. Granted, he was thrown somewhat "into the fire" last week, but Hundley did not have much success w/ the offense scoring just 10 points under his direction and none after halftime. Green Bay's offense finished the game w/ just 227 yards total in a 23-10 loss. Right now, it's pretty difficult to be optimistic about the Packers.

One thing that may help GB here is the environment. We all know that, traditionally, the Saints' offense is never as prolific outdoors. Sunday's forecast at Lambeau calls for unfavorable conditions as well w/ a decent amount of wind and a good chance of rain. If the forecast holds, Drew Brees and company should stay relatively grounded. Even if the conditions are better than expected, I still don't envision a big offensive day from New Orleans as they've played only one "true" road game outdoors thus far. Ironically, it was their highest scoring game to date (34 points) before last week, but I still don't see that as a harbinger of things to come. 

Now the Saints are off a wild, 52-38 victory over the Lions at home last week. But while 90 total pts were scored in that game, there were a total of FOUR touchdowns scored by the two defenses. Three of them came from the Saints' side! That certainly isn't likely to repeat itself this week. Speaking of the Saints' defense, a funny thing happened in their last two games away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and that's they've allowed just 13 points total. There was the 34-13 win at Carolina, then they shut out the Dolphins in London. This group definitely seems to be improved (how could they not after the last couple years?) and I don't think they should have much trouble w/ Hundley, who doesn't have much of a run game to lean on (Pack averaging only 88 YPG rushing) and his starting center (Corey Linsely) is likely out as well! If Rodgers were playing here, I would forecast the Packers to win in a shootout, but he's not, so expect a lower-scoring type affair. 8* Under Saints/Panthers

10* Over Marshall/Middle Tennessee (7:00 ET): Middle Tennessee enters the week as one of five FBS teams to be perfect either Over or Under. The Blue Raiders have yet to go Over the oddsmakers total in a single game this season (though there was a close call two wks ago vs. FIU), joining Houston (plays Thursday), Troy and Akron w/ that unique distinction (LA Monroe is the only team to have gone Over in every game this season). The reason for the Under trend is pretty clear and that's QB Brent Stockstill (son of HC Rick) has been injured most of the year. This was a team that averaged 39.7 points and over 500 yards a year ago, so needless to say, Stockstill's absence has had a profound impact on things down in Murfreesboro. But this week, we get the lowest O/U line to date and I say it's "high time" we get an Over.

Marshall is a team I was sure to put on my "Most Improved List" for 2017 (played them successfully in Week 1) and the Thundering Herd has not disappointed w/ their lone loss so far coming to a very good NC State team, on the road. That was Week 2 and they've won four straight (all by double digits) since. The last two weeks, facing Charlotte and Old Dominion (two poor teams), they've allowed only six points total and no touchdowns. Earlier in the year, the defense pitched a shutout against old MAC rival Kent State, so you can see why this total is so low. But at the same time, the Thundering Herd probably haven't faced anything resembling a coherent offense in over a month. MTSU still won't have Stockstill Friday, but they've at least scored 20+ points in four straight games. Even in defeat LW at UAB, they gained nearly 400 total yds.

That game LW vs. UAB was on pace to be a high scoring affair at halftime as UAB led 22-20. But from there, the teams would only manage to exchange field goals in the 2H. I really have no way of explaining that dropoff in scoring from the first to second half. As I mentioned earlier, the week prior was the Blue Raiders' highest scoring game of the year as they beat FIU 37-17 (depending on your closing total, you may have that one counted as an Over). That is one of three MTSU games this year that would have gone Over the O/U for this week. In fact, against FAU (lost 38-20) and Syracuse (won 30-23), we had O/U lines of 60 and 72.5 respectively! While Stockstill remains out, the good news is that WR Richie James is back (returned last week). James' absence for three games is also a major reason for the Blue Raiders' offensive decline in 2017. All James has done in his career is lead all active FBS receivers in receptions (239) while placing 2nd in yards (3224)! I'm confident that backup John Uruza will be able to get him the ball. Marshall's offense, led by QB Chase Litton, is averaging 26.5 PPG. Litton has thrown 13 TD passes and RB Davis is averaging 5.0 YPC. Expect this game to go Over the total. 10* Over Marshall/Middle Tennessee

8* Under Eagles/Panthers (8:25 ET): Carolina is coming off a pair of road wins where they scored a total of 60 points against a pair of playoff teams from last year, one of them being the Patriots. But they also have a defense that ranks in the top 10 in both scoring (18.8 PPG) and yards (274.0 per game). They just held Detroit to 242 yards last week. On paper, this looks like an even matchup w/ the Eagles, who are also 4-1 SU and off a dominant win. They routed the Cardinals last week, 34-7, albeit at home. But I don't see the Eagles' offense being as successful this week w/ stud O-lineman Lane Johnson likely out (concussion). The Eagles' defense should also be able to hold its own here as it is allowing only 19.8 points per game. Take the Under here in a battle of two likely playoff teams. 

I do not expect either team to run the ball w/ much success in this one. Save for their lone loss to the Saints, Carolina has yet to allow any opponent to rush for more than 80 yards this season. Philadelphia isn't allowing anyone to run on them right now as the L3 games have seen them give up an average of just 46 rushing yards per game! Only Kansas City (lone loss) has gone for more than 64 yds over land against them. Last week saw the Panthers average a "whopping" one yard per attempt rushing the ball as they gained just 28 yards on 28 carries and that was against the Lions. Philadelphia's run game and probably the whole offense will be adversely affected by Johnson's absence. RB Wendell Smallwood is likely out as well. The short week here isn't going to help either offense. 

Let's talk more about Lane Johnson. Over the L2 seasons, the Eagles are 9-2 SU when Johnson plays and 2-8 when he does not. Wentz's TD-INT ratio takes a predictable hit in the games where Johnson doesn't play. Carolina's defense ranks third in the league w/ 17 sacks, so pass protection could be another issue for the Eagles here. Meanwhile, after going Over in three straight games and scoring 60 pts total the L2 weeks, I don't see the Panthers coming close to their recent offensive efficiency here. In two home games so far, they've scored only 22 points total! However, their defense allowed only six points - total - the first two games of the season, remember. 8* Under Eagles/Panthers

10* Over Vikings/Bears (8:25 ET): You may need a scorecard here just to keep track of who is in and who's out for this game. Tonight marks the much ballyhooed debut of Bears rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky, the #2 overall draft choice. He takes over for the ineffective (imagine that!) Mike Glennon, who directed the team to an average of just 15.2 points through the first four games. As for Minnesota, they are now w/o BOTH their starting QB (Sam Bradford) and RB (Dalvin Cook), however (as of press time), it is beginning to look more and more likely that the former (Bradford) WILL play. That would be a huge boost to our call, which is the Over on a very low total. 

Vikings HC Mike Zimmer reportedly told ESPN's MNF production crew that he expects Bradford to start here. That's huge. Bradford's lone start thus far resulted in a 29-19 win over the Saints (on MNF no less). They've since alternated bad and good offensive performances w/ Case Keenum at the helm. In the two losses (to Pittsburgh and Detroit), they scored 16 points TOTAL, but they also scored 34 in a win over Tampa Bay. Last season saw Bradford set the NFL's all-time completion percentage record. While the distinction was relatively meaningless, I do think that w/ Bradford in, the offense can move the ball. They showed that in the opener where WR Adam Theilein hauled in nine passes for 157 yards. Bradford completed 27 of 32 pass attempts for 346 yds and three touchdowns. The Vikings offense finished w/ 470 total yards in that game. Yes, it was against the Saints, but it's not as if the Bears' defense is anything special at this point. (Note: If Bradford does NOT play tonight, this play IS still valid). 

The move to Trubisky from Glennon is the right one, even though the Bears' weak receiving corps remains a concern either way. That said, Trubisky did look impressive in the preseason and clearly has the more upside of the two quarterbacks. The Bears' Week 4 loss at Green Bay (Thursday night game) was a little misleading in the sense that the Bears actually outgained the Packers 308-260, only to be undone by an ugly -4 turnover margin. The offense did not break 23 points under Glennon and went Under each of the first three games. The defense has allowed 23 or more points three times. To me, this is a very low total by modern NFL standards and it doesn't take much for an Over to cash here (six touchdowns). The Vikings offense has averaged 6.1 yards per play even w/ Bradford missing three games. 10* Over Vikings/Bears

10* Under Patriots/Buccaneers (8:25 ET): The "sky is falling" in Foxboro as the Super Bowl Champs are 2-2 SU w/ the worst defense in the league. Consider that they are averaging 32.2 PPG, yet have those two losses to their credit. Matt Patricia's defense has been every bit as bad as it's been made out to be, giving up 33 or more points three times and an average of 424 yards per game. Ironically, the one time they did hold an opponent under 33 pts was on the road against New Orleans (won 36-20). All four Patriots games have gone Over the total and as a result, this is the highest O/U line to date for one of their games. The Bucs have gone Over in B2B games as well, but none of their first three games (bye Week 1) would have gone Over this number. I'm on the Under here as this is the highest O/U line for any NFL game this season.

New England's early season "struggles" haven't gone unnoticed by the oddsmakers in Vegas as for the first time in a long time, they are no longer listed as the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl. Even though this is a short week, I expect the pride of the defense to kick in and the level of play to improve. Tampa Bay averages just 84.7 rush yards per game (26th overall) and even though RB Doug Martin is expected back Thursday, look for Bill Belichick to force the TB offense into being rather one-dimensional. Note that the Bucs' offense isn't really as good as it may appear. The Week 1 win over Chicago was greatly aided by turnovers as all three TD drives were 35 yards or less.

Tampa Bay's defense could be "up against it" w/o two starting linebackers, one of them Lavonte David. Without both, they still managed to win last week, but that was against an inept Giants team and it took a field goal on the final play. They had just 16 points midway through the fourth quarter. As I'd anticipated, WR Desean Jackson has been an overrated acquisition w/ just nine catches in three games. Defenses should thus still be able to double team Mike Evans. I just feel that with so much discussion on the Patriots defense going into this game, they will "rise up" with their best performance to date. Many times, we see the offenses struggle in these Thursday night affairs. While the Patriots will still manage to score plenty, it won't be enough to push the final score Over this lofty total. 10* Under Patriots/Buccaneers

8* Over Ravens/Jaguars (9:30 AM ET): Our first London game of the season and of course the Jaguars are involved. This will be their fifth all-time appearance in the UK and they've won and covered the last two. This is also a much better Jags team than past editions. They opened the season w/ a 27-9 drubbing of Houston (I had them there), but laid an egg last week at home against Tennessee, losing 37-16 (dominated in the 2nd half). But this will be a stiff test going up against a 2-0 Baltimore team that's allowed only 10 pts on the year while forcing 10 turnovers. I'm not going to make a call on the side here, but I do like the game to go Over the relatively low total even though the L5 head to head meetings have all stayed Under. Like I said earlier, Jacksonville is better this year.

The big story here for the Ravens is that they are now w/o their best offensive lineman, Marshall Yanda. While this figures to have an adverse effect on both the running game and protecting Joe Flacco, I expect them to still be able to move the ball. Jacksonville's defense gave up nearly 400 total yards LW against Tennessee. The turnover issue could also be big here for the Ravens defense going against Blake Bortles. Bortles, who leads the league in interceptions the L3 seasons, is going up against the defense that has forced the most turnovers in the league to this point. So, like the Titans last week, don't be surprised if the Ravens get set up on a short field and take advantage.

This would be the fourth year in a row these teams have played and the O/U line is several points lower than any of the previous three matchups. Last year, the Ravens won a 19-17 game in Jacksonville (also in Week 3!) on the strength of four Justin Tucker field goals. Jacksonville had two drives in Baltimore territory end w/ Bortles' interceptions plus another w/ a missed field goal. While Cleveland and Cincinnati found little to no success against the Ravens defense, that was w/ a rookie QB and an inept offense that's already fired its coordinator. The Jags bring the strongest offense Baltimore will have faced to date. Offenses are struggling across this league, but you can "throw the numbers out" in an environment such as this where at least the Ravens are unfamiliar. This is a really low total and I think the teams will score enough to go Over. 8* Over Ravens/Jaguars

8* Over BYU/LSU (9:30 ET): This game has been moved from Houston to New Orleans, which is a big edge for LSU, obviously. As for the total, I don't think it makes much of a difference as it will still be a "fast track," played indoors. These were two Under teams in 2016 w/ 10 of LSU's 12 games going that way and 10 of BYU's 13 games doing the same. But those records have created a situation where the O/U line was opened far too low here. BYU opening their season w/ a "ho-hum" 20-6 win over FCS Portland State also played a role. But how much of that was the coaching staff "holding back" remains to be seen. As for LSU, despite the departure of RB Leonard Fournette, their offense should be just fine as they have Derrius Guice to fill the void. I like the Over in this game.

I do expect BYU to top last year's scoring average of 29.5 PPG when they went from a spread to a more pro-style approach (huddle before most plays). Last week was clearly not a great "trial run," but again, I have to wonder if they were "holding back" w/ this game on deck. Portland State actually finished w/ one more first down (14-13), which was downright shocking. But the Cougars did outgain the Vikings 365-220 and had several big plays in the passing game. The rushing attack looked good w/ Canada and Kavika combining for 157 yards over land. QB Mangum is just two years removed from setting school records for both passing yards and completions and should be closer to those numbers than last year's here in 2017. 

LSU's defense will certainly not make it easy on BYU as last year saw the Tigers allow only 15.8 PPG and the fewest number of first downs (16) per game. But this year's group has only five returning starters back and lost more than 50% of its tackles. With the BYU offense already having a game under its belt, it's an advantage for them. But LSU's own offense will be more than up to the challenge. Guice will have a big year running the ball and Danny Etling, now a senior, is back as the starting QB. It's also a veteran offensive line. The Tigers are more than capable of doing most of the necessary scoring themselves in this one and BYU should do just enough to help push this one Over the number. 8* Over BYU/LSU

8* Under Tulsa/Oklahoma State (7:30 ET): Last year, BOTH of these teams have a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Only one returns the majority of it in 2017. That would be Oklahoma State, who for the past seven seasons has averaged 38.6 PPG (LY's average) or more SIX times. With the prolific QB-WR combo of Mason Rudolph and James Washington returning, expectations are through the roof this year in Stillwater w/ the faithful thinking Big XII Championship. However, it is Tulsa that I'm worried about here. The Golden Hurricane averaged 42.5 PPG in a breakout 2016 that saw them win 10 games. They were the first team in FBS history to have a 3,000+ yard passer, two 1,000+ yd rushers and two 1,000 yd receivers. But all but one of those players was lost to graduation. As a result, expect a massive drop off on that side of the ball for the Golden Hurricane here in '17. 

Tulsa topped 40 pts in all but three games last season and scored at least 31 in all but one. That one time, of course, happened to be their lone visit to a Power 5 school. They lost 48-3 at Ohio State w/ just 188 total yds gained. I'm not saying this OSU will be able to limit them to such a degree, but it is worth noting that the Pokes did allow just 26.5 PPG a year ago (three-year low) against far tougher competition than they'll see here. As of press time, Tulsa HC Philip Montgomery has yet to decided on a starting QB. It will be one of two inexperienced underclassmen - sophomore Chad President or freshman Luke Skipper. Whomever gets the nod (both might play), I expect will struggle mightily. 

The key to this Under play then would be keeping Oklahoma State's offense in relative check. If the Cowboys were to simply "hit" LY's scoring average, then they'd have to allow 30+ pts for this one to go Over. I cannot see Tulsa scoring 30 points here. So, let's say the Golden Hurricane drops down to somewhere between 21 and 24 pts (seems realistica). It would take roughly 50 from the OSU side to get this one Over. Are the Pokes capable of such an output? Yes, but I don't see it. Consider they didn't score 50 against any FBS opponent last season. They were remarkably consistent, scoring between 38 and 49 pts in eight of their 10 wins. The two exceptions were scoring 31 against TCU (allowed only 6) and 61 (against a FCS program, SE Louisiana). I expect a pretty "average" day offensively from OSU here while Tulsa should slip dramatically compared to last year. Most OSU totals last year were lower than this one. There were three exceptions and two of those stayed Under. 8* Under Tulsa/Oklahoma State

10* Under Patriots/Falcons (6:30 ET): The Under is never the popular side when it comes to betting the total, but for this year's Super Bowl, it figures to be REALLY unpopular. New England and Atlanta are a combined 4-0 Over this postseason and the Falcons, driven by the league's top offense, have gone Under in only two games all season. The game is being played indoors. That all being said, I'm still going Under here. Remember; I had the Over in the AFC Champ Game. I also had Atlanta in the NFC Champ Game and certainly have a ton of respect for their offense. I just think that a neutral setting where a slow offensive start on both sides is likely, this number is a bit too high. It's the highest in SB history, as you've probably heard. But only eight Super Bowls in history have seen at least 60 total pts scored. That includes just one of the past 12! Take the Under. 

Atlanta went 5-1 ATS as an underdog during the regular season, winning four of those games outright. But interestingly, that sextet produced their three lowest scoring games of the year and both Unders. The Over was 10-0 in final season of the Georgia Dome, but "just" 5-2-1 on the road. Interestingly, not only did the Falcons average 3.5 PPG less on the road offensively, they also give up 3.3 PPG fewer on the road as well. They just held Seattle and Green Bay to 20 and 21 pts respectively. A Packers offense that had been shredding everyone coming into the NFC Champ Game was shutout in the first half. The amount of pressure that Dan Quinn's defense has been bringing has been key during the playoff run. If there's been one "commonality" in beating Tom Brady through the years, it's bringing pressure. 

The Patriots lead the league in scoring defense at 15.7 PPG. While I happen to think that number is a bit "phony" in the sense that they've faced a poor slate of quarterbacks, the fact remains that they have allowed more than 24 points in a game just twice all year! Over the L5 wks, they've allowed an average of just 10.6 PPG or 53 points TOTAL. They've allowed 17 pts or less in eight of the last nine games and 13 times total this year. While I don't think for a second they can be that stifling here, certainly it's a better defense than what Atlanta saw against Green Bay in the NFC Champ Game or possibly even against Seattle, who was w/o Earl Thomas. Again, do not be surprised if a slow start to this game is what keeps it Under. All the pomp and circumstance surrounding the Super Bowl can be a distraction to both sides. 10* Under Patriots/Falcons

10* Over Steelers/Patriots (6:40 ET): So after all the craziness of this NFL season, we wind up w/ the AFC Champ Game that I think most would have expected prior to the start of the campaign. The Steelers and Patriots did meet in the regular season, but little can be derived from that matchup considering Ben Roethlisberger did not play. For what it's worth, Pittsburgh did hang pretty tough w/ Landry Jones under center. It was a 20-16 game early in the fourth quarter. But that was at Heinz Field. The rematch takes place in Foxboro where the Pats almost never lose (24-4 SU L3 seasons). Despite being favored in all but two games this year (both w/o Tom Brady), NE has managed to go 13-3-1 ATS. But they really haven't played the most challenging slate of QB's either. Meanwhile, the Steelers' offensive and defensive numbers are a bit misleading due to red zone in/efficiciencies. I'm on the Over here.

Because he accounted for all 18 points LW against Kansas City, "some" are choosing to place Steelers' kicker Chris Boswell as the 4th "Killer B" alongside Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell. What foolishness. However, believe it or not, it wasn't the first time this year that Boswell made six field goals in a game. The other was late in the regular season at Cincinnati. The following week, Pittsburgh scored 31 points against a quality Ravens defense. What I'm getting at here is that red zone efficiency can be a very fluky statistic. Pittsburgh had six quality drives last week against a good KC defense, but just couldn't punch it in the end zone. One of the field goals was just a 22-yarder. The Steelers still rolled up almost 400 total yards LW and average 372.9 (7th) for the year. I'll call for them to score far more points this week even though they are going up against the #1 scoring defense in the league here.

New England only gives up 15.6 PPG, but they were actually 8th in yards allowed, so there's a bit of a bend but don't break going here. Something else that's helped the Patriots throughout the year is not really facing many top QB's. They faced Pittsburgh w/o Big Ben, so really Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco are the only "Pro Bowl level" signal callers they've seen. During this eight-game win streak of theirs, these are the QB's they've faced: Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice), Jared Goff, Flacco, Trevor Siemian and Matt Moore. Yikes. Not surprisingly, the last two times they gave up 23+ pts came against Wilson and Flacco. Of course, there's no real issues with a Patriots offense that comes in averaging nearly 28 PPG. They too will present a far greater challenge than what the Steelers' defense has had to deal w/ facing Matt Moore and Alex Smith in these playoffs. I thought the Steelers were very fortunate to get away w/ allowing only 12 point against Miami given the amount of yards allowed. Four times the Dolphins turned possession of the ball over on the Steelers side of the field. 10* Over Steelers/Patriots

10* Under Packers/Cowboys (4:40 ET): Green Bay blew out the Giants on Wild Card Weekend, winning 38-13. They were my 10* Game of the Week selection, so certainly I was happy. But while the lazy talking heads were quick to cite an ill-timed boat trip by the Giants' receiving corps as the cause of the loss, more reasonable minds were all over the fact that NY losing top CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie had far more to do the end result. After a shaky start to the game, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers caught fire once DRC left the game. He ended up throwing for 362 yards and four touchdowns, despite missing top WR Jordy Nelson for most of the game. Nelson has since been ruled OUT for this week's game in Dallas, which is a big deal, and thus look for GB's run of five straight 30+ point efforts (and Overs) to come to an end here. I'm on the Under.

Led by two superstar rookies (QB Dak Prescott & RB Ezekiel Elliot), Dallas went 13-3 SU in the regular season, earning the top spot in the NFC. One of those three losses was in the meaningless reg season finale at Philly while the other two came against the Giants. One of the 13 wins was against these Packers, back in Week 6, as the offense rode Elliott for 157 yards en route to a 30-16 win and cover at Lambeau Field. The line for that matchup was Dallas +5 and clearly the oddsmakers' shift for the rematch is warranted. But I'm not sure the increase in the O/U line is warranted as the reg season meeting just did stay Under (total was 47.5). Something I mentioned in LW's successful Under play on Miami-Pittsburgh is that rematches tend to be lower-scoring than the original. That played out in three of the four games last weekend. So getting a higher O/U line to work with for the rematch here seems to be a steal. After all, Cowboys games "only" averaged 45.4 total PPG this year.

In addition to benefiting from the loss of the Giants' top cornerback, Rodgers was able to get away w/ yet another of his "patented" Hail Mary completions at the end of the first half. I used quotes around the word patented because even w/ him completing three over the last two seasons, such an event should not be expected again here. Again, I have to go back to how slow the Packers started LW's game as their first five drives only accounted for 51 yards total. Four of them went for four plays or less. Not having Nelson is going to be a big deal for Rodgers. At the same time, don't be surprised if it takes awhile for Dallas' offense to get going as well. They have rookies starting at the two key positions after all. I would expect GB to do a better job at containing Elliott this second time around. In fact, neither side allows 100 yds rushing per game. Interestingly, of the seven times Dallas has faced Rodgers, six have been in Lambeau Field (L3 all stayed Under). With the home field advantage, I expect this game to be lower scoring than expected. 10* Under Packers/Cowboys

8* Over Clemson/Alabama (8:00 ET): What I find so fascinating about this year's title game is that both the underdog & under, while typically tied together, are the choices of the public. That's certainly atypical as more often than not, their preferred combo is the favorite & over. By no means am I being a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian here. After all, I did cash the Over in LY's title game between these same two teams. In handicapping this year's rematch, much of the discussion concerning the total has talked about how Alabama & Clemson won't be combining to score 85 points again. Well, fortunately, they do not have to. We have a whopping five touchdown margin of error to work with here and thus I'll be going Over again.

What both defenses did in their respective dominant CFP semifinal victories is a big reason why many are expecting a low-scoring Championship Game. (Both games went Under). Alabama's defense is definitely the best in the country and held Washington below 200 total yards in a 24-7 win. But the Crimson Tide certainly didn't look like what we've come to expect from a Nick Saban defense LY vs. Clemson. There, they gave up 400+ yards and 31 first downs, barely surviving in a 45-40 win. That was when the Tigers didn't have WR Mike Williams either. Williams' presence should be a major factor in this year's rematch. Also, a point that has been driven home ad nauseam is how Clemson QB DeShaun Watson is precisely the kind of signal-caller that Saban stop units tend to struggle against. Watson and his offense come in averaging 39.5 PPG, for the record.

The Clemson defense shut out Ohio State on New Year's Eve, allowing just over 200 total yards. The fact that Alabama has changed offensive coordinators in the week leading up to the biggest game of the year is a major deal. The transition from Lane Kiffin (who called an awful game vs. Washington) to Steve Sarkisian will not be seamless and the Crimson Tide may very well struggle early. But remember; last year's title game was only 14-14 at halftime before both offenses exploded in the 2H. Alabama averages 39.4 PPG, almost an identical number to Clemson. This Tigers' defense did allow 35+ pts twice down the stretch, once to Pitt (their only loss) and to Virginia Tech in the ACC Title Game. Prior to the Washington game, the Over was 8-1 in Alabama neutral field games. 8* Over Clemson/Alabama

10* Under Dolphins/Steelers (1:00 ET): This O/U line opened as the highest of the four Wild Card games. I think too high. We think of the Steelers as a high-scoring, explosive team, but their games averaged "only" 45.3 points per game, which was as middle of the road as it gets in the league. Dolphins games were actually - on average - slightly higher scoring at 46.5 PPG. While the difference between the two is rather nominal, Miami actually wound up at 12-4 Over for the season, closing on an 8-0 run their final eight games. This, however, is the playoffs and I don't see the offense being quite as successful in this environment. Not w/ career backup QB Matt Moore at the helm going against a battle-tested Pittsburgh team. I like the Under here in this regular season rematch.

The regular season meeting between these two - won by Miami, 30-15 - is what turned the Dolphins' season around for good. They were 1-4 SU heading into that game, where they were 7.5-point underdogs - at home! It should be noted that one previous win was against Cleveland, in overtime. So what happened that day? Well, RB Jay Ajayi had his breakout performance, running for the first of what would be three 200+ yd games this season (other two were both against Buffalo). Even w/ Cam Hayward missing from the Steelers' defense this time around, I would not expect a repeat performance from Ajayi though. In six of the last seven games, the Miami offense has failed to gain even 100 yards rushing. Throwing out its meaningless regular season finale vs. Cleveland, the Steelers were generally very good at stopping the run down the stretch (allowed less than 100 yds in 5 of previous 6 games).

It should also be mentioned that Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger got hurt in the loss to Miami. His return for this playoff rematch is offset by the Dolphins starting Moore, however. Miami's offensive success this year was basically a result of "chunk" i.e. big plays and the number of those has come down w/ Moore under center. This offense only averaged 22.7 PPG for the year and that's factoring in a lot worse defenses than the one they'll see here. In particular, the Steelers' does a great job at buckling down in the red zone. It's also worth noting that while Big Ben is back, the Pittsburgh offense managed only eight points through three quarters against this Dolphins defense the first go around and that was w/ Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown both playing as well. Rematches tend to be lower scoring that initial meetings (familiarity!) and if that's the case here, the Under is ours. This will be one of the higher O/U lines of the year for Miami. 10* Under Dolphins/Steelers

8* Under Cowboys/Eagles (1:00 ET): Dallas turned in a remarkably efficient offensive performance last week, scoring 42 points on one of the top defenses in the league (Detroit). But we know that we won't be seeing their full compliment of skill position players on the field for Week 17 as America's Team has nothing to play for here w/ the #1 seed in the NFC all wrapped up. Most notably, there will be a change at the QB position w/ Dak Prescott giving way to Mark Sanchez and, yes, Tony Romo. While there is no official word on how long some of the key players will play, if they play at all, I expect the most vanilla of gameplans for the Cowboys in the regular season finale. There is just no incentive for them to try. Take the Under.

The Eagles might be out of contention, but I actually view them as one of the top non-playoff teams. They were my top play for Week 16 when they hosted the Giants last Thursday and delivered in kind w/ a 24-19 "upset." (Though they actually closed as the favorite). The key to that correct call and this one as well is that Philly has a very good defense. At home, they're giving up an average of only 15.9 points per game. However, the offense has its issues. QB Carson Wentz may have hit the proverbial "rookie wall" some time ago as he has an ugly 5-11 TD-INT ratio the L8 games. The team's top two running backs (Ryan Matthews, Darren Sproles) are both out here. Remember that LW, the team needed a defensive score just to get to 24 points as the offense gained less than 300 total yards. In terms of yards per play, this offense ranks fifth worst in the league.

The Eagles' 29-23 loss at Dallas in Week 8 is what started their swoon. While that game was high scoring, note it went to overtime after Philly blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead. That being said, it was another game that they gained fewer than 300 total yards. The Cowboys had nearly 500, but sources are now saying Ezekiel Elliot will be limited to only a handful of snaps here and that's key because he accounted for almost 150 of those yards in that first meeting. Also, the Dallas' D is quietly allowing only 18.6 PPG this year and 81.5 rush yds per game, which is tops in the league! The Under is 5-2 for them this season in road games. 10* Under Cowboys/Eagles

10* Under Panthers/Bucs (1:00 ET): It's all division games in Wk 17 of NFL and thus in every instance we'll have a previous matchup to include in our handicapping. In the case of Carolina-Tampa Bay, a meeting all the way back in Week 5 set the tone for the respective seasons. In what was considered a shocking upset at the time, the Bucs beat the Panthers 17-14 as six-point underdogs on a last second Roberto Aguayo field goal. Since that time Tampa Bay has gone 7-4 SU overall, getting itself onto the very fringes of playoff contention. Meanwhile, it's been "that kind of year" for the defending NFC Champs, who are 6-9 SU and will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2013.

Note that Carolina played w/o Cam Newton in that earlier season matchup, which was a Monday night affair. I was on the Under, a really easy winner obviously, and will go back to "the well" despite Newton's presence for the rematch. Most of the focus concerning the Panthers' 2016 decline has been on the defensive side of the ball, the secondary (which lost Josh Norman) in particular. But Newton and the offense really haven't held up their end of the bargain either. Of course, there were plenty of "smoke and mirrors" involved with this group last season when they led the league in scoring, but were actually outside the Top 10 in yards per game. The Over was 12-6-1 LY for Carolina (including playoffs), but this year the team's scoring has declined by more than a touchdown.

Tampa Bay still has a very outside shot at making the playoffs, but an incredible confluence of events would need to take place later in the day for that goal to be achieved. Still, I expect the rapidly improving defense to perform well in a game they'll obviously want to win. Prior to LW, five straight Bucs games had stayed Under the total. They are off road games against Dallas and New Orleans (lost both), but those are two of the top offense in the league. This will be an easier assignment and thus we should see something along the lines of the five-game stretch when they allowed an average of less than 13 PPG. Factor out the two indoor games vs. New Orleans and Atlanta and Carolina has seen only four Overs all season. 10* Under Panthers/Bucs

8* Under Nebraska/Tennessee (3:30 ET): Given the respective starts to the season that these teams enjoyed, both were hoping for a far more meaningful final destination than the Music City Bowl. For Tennessee, this essentially amounts to a home game in Nashville (three hour drive). This was supposed to "the year" for the Vols (stop me when you've heard that one before!) and for awhile it was looking like that might be the case. Though living dangerously (had to come from behind in almost every game), Rocky Top did stand at 5-0 straight up going into a date w/ fellow unbeaten Texas A&M at College Station. They lost, in overtime, and that begat a three-game losing streak that essentially sunk their season. Eliminated from SEC East title contention, they would go on to lose their regular season finale, as 7.5-pt favorites, at Vanderbilt 45-34.

Nebraska actually made it all the way to 7-0 SU, but experienced a similar second half swoon. Also like Tennessee, the Cornhuskers' first loss of the year came in OT, at Wisconsin. No shame there, but the following week saw them get humiliated by Ohio State (62-3!) and the bloom was certainly off the rose, so to speak. The similarities with their bowl opponent continue as Nebraska lost its regular season finale, 40-10 at Iowa. More similarities? A good number of the 'Huskers wins this season were close games. Coming into the year though, I had anticipated that as this team experienced miserable fortune in such affairs last year (as did Tennessee!).

With two similar, possibly disinterested teams, I have no opinion on the side here. So, instead let's look at the total. While the potential lack of interest may have most thinking 'Over', I'm going the other way. Nebraska is an Under team to begin with (9-3 this year) and this is a high total for them. Interestingly, two of their Overs came in the two poorest offensive efforts of the season (at Ohio State, Iowa). Though Tennessee's defense has been questionable, Nebraska won't be able to take advantage. That's because starting QB Tommy Armstrong is still out and now so too is top WR Jordan Westerkamp (knee), RB Tre Bryant (hamstring) and possibly TE Tyler Hoppes (concussion). That leaves the cupboard rather bare for former walk-on Ryker Fyfe, who actually broke his left wrist in the Maryland game. But the Huskers' defense (21st nationally in YPG allowed) should keep the team close even w/o safety Nate Gerry. 8* Under Nebraska/Tennessee

10* Under Northwestern/Pitt (2:00 ET): Though an 8-4 SU record and trip to the New Era Pinstripe Bowl hardly seems like an ideal way to end one's season, Pittsburgh should be proud of how it performed in year #2 under HC Pat Narduzzi. They beat two Power 5 Conference Champions. One was Penn State early in the year, the other was Clemson, as 21.5-pt underdogs in Death Valley! The Panthers can lay claim to being the ONLY ACC team to beat Clemson over the L2 seasons. They can also lay claim to being one of the top Over teams in the country. Every game since the opener, which was against FCS Villanova, finished Over the total. That's 11 straight, for those keeping score at home. But as one (if not the only?) "cold weather" bowl game (Game Time Temp expected to be 42), I believe this game will be lower scoring than expected. Take the Under. 

Northwestern was a clear regression candidate coming into 2016 and regress is exactly what they did, going from 10-3 SU a year ago to 6-6 w/ this one game remaining. The Wildcats have been regular bowl participants during HC Pat Fitzgerald's tenure here, but have won just ONE bowl game in 10 appearances! Though they curiously averaged significantly more points per game on the road than in Evanston, the Under was 8-4 for this team during the regular season. In each of those four Overs, three of those coming on the road, they scored 38 points or more. But in the other eight games, they failed to top 24 points! That's quite the discrepancy.

With two hard-nosed head coaches like Narduzzi and Fitzgerald, a high-scoring affair just doesn't seem right. This total, which is easily the highest for any N'western game this season (by a touchdown), is clearly influenced by some of the high scores both teams saw at the end of the regular season. But note those games were played against non-bowl teams. That 76-61 win over Syracuse in the reg season finale is a result Pitt may never repeat again as long as the program lives. The Under is 9-2 in Northwestern's L11 non-conference games and w/ two run-heavy offenses, expect the clock to stay moving. Pitt allows only 109 yds rushing per game. Northwestern is also stingy when it comes to allowing yds over land. By the way, Pitt also lost its offensive coordinator (Matt Canada) just last week. 10* Under Northwestern/Pitt

10* Over Ohio/Troy (8:00 ET): This is a very low total for a bowl game. Coming into this year, bowl games had seen an average of 58.7 PPG scored dating back to 2011. Each of the first six bowls games went Under before Memphis & Western Kentucky provided the requisite fireworks we're used to seeing this time of year. Of course, a big reason for this total being so low is the fact Ohio was the top Under team in the country at 11-1-1. But rarely did Frank Solich's Bobcats face a total this low. The final score was 29-23 when they lost the MAC Championship Game to Western Michigan. The opponent here in the Dollar General Bowl (played in Mobile, AL) is Troy, themselves a bit of an Under squad. But in a game like this, where the opponents are unfamiliar, I'm willing to wager this game will be higher scoring than expected. Take the Over.

Though a regular participant in these bowl games, Ohio has never had much success. They've won only two of nine and LY's was definitely "one to forget" as they blew a lead against Appalachian State and lost 31-29 (Camellia Bowl). Looking back, we can see the majority of their bowl appearances have resulted in high scoring games. This year's squad has been carried by the defense, which permits just 22.2 points per game. That said, they typically allowed more than that average when facing a bowl eligible opponent. In fact, five of six bowl teams that they faced during the regular season scored at least 27 points against the Bobcats. Only one reg season O/U line was below 50 pts and that was against offensively inept Kent State. The vast majority of their games fell just shy of the individual totals. 

For all the talk surrounding Ohio's defense coming into this matchup, Troy's defense was slightly better on a points per game basis (22.0 allowed). But the key will be the Trojans offense, which led the Sun Belt in scoring, passing and total yardage. They come in averaging a healthy 34.2 PPG and that number would be even higher were in not for the "egg" they laid at home to Arkansas State on November 17th (lost 35-3). This team should be extra motivated by how their reg season ended, another outright loss, this one as seven point favorites at Georgia Southern. I remember that game because I was on Georgia Southern! At one point though, this team was ranked as they were 8-1 SU w/ the lone loss to Clemson. This is their first bowl since 2010. As is the case w/ Ohio, there's a chance this will close as the lowest total for any Troy game this season. 10* Over Ohio/Troy

10* Under Panthers/Redskins (8:30 ET): Washington, thanks to an efficient offense and somewhat leaky defense, has turned into one of the most reliable teams for Over bettors in the entire league. Sure enough, dating back to LY's stretch run when they won four straight to win the NFC East, the Over is now a ridiculous 16-2 the L18 games! That includes an 11-2 mark this season with each of the last six games going that way! So, it would seem only natural to play this Monday night matchup with Carolina accordingly, right? Not so fast. This will be only the third time this year that the O/U line has cracked the 50-point barrier for the 'Skins and one of the previous two saw an Under cash. The Under would have been 2 for 2 on 50+ pt totals, but the team scored a late TD in garbage time against Dallas on Thanksgiving.

Carolina was an obvious call to regress in 2016, but the regression that has taken hold has been far more severe than even the greatest pessimist could have anticipated. Last year's NFC Champs currently sit at 5-8 and let's face it; the playoffs are only a pipe dream. One thing that I always found interesting about LY's team is that while it ranked #1 in the league in scoring (31.3 points per game), they were just outside the top 10 (11th) in yards per game. When a team rates so highly in # of yards per point (and Panthers were #1 in that dept LY), regression is all but inevitable the following year. Sure enough, Cam Newton and company have dipped down to a scoring average of 23.9 PPG this year. Last week was more reminiscent of 2015 as they scored 28 points despite gaining only 272 total yards. That was thanks to five Chargers turnovers.

Of course, the week prior was a disaster for Carolina as they were held to seven points on a near identical yardage total (271!) in a humiliating primetime loss at Seattle. Washington's defense may not be anywhere near as good as Seattle's, but they have allowed fewer than 300 total yds in B2B weeks. As for the Panthers defense, it would definitely be better if LB Luke Keuchly takes the field for the first time in four games. It's unclear if he will as of press time, but regardless, I expect Carolina not to "roll over" here. With temperatures expected to be chilly, expect the scoring to be lower than expected. 10* Under Panthers/Redskins

10* Under UTSA/New Mexico (2:00 ET): How appropriate that for the second year in a row and fourth time since '07 that the University of New Mexico will take part in the New Mexico Bowl? This year's edition of Lobos football was the strongest yet in HC Bob Davie's five-year tenure, at least record-wise, as they went 8-4 straight up, including a 56-35 thrashing of a good Wyoming team (that admittedly had nothing to play for) in the regular season finale. The opponent here will be 1st time bowler UTSA, a school that has only been full-time at the FBS level for four years. I had success both playing on (at Arizona State) and against (at Rice) the Roadrunners this year as they finished off a 6-6 SU campaign w/ a 33-14 win over Charlotte. Though I think the underdog will be competitive here, I do not believe they will win their 1st ever bowl in what amounts to a "true" road game. Thus, we turn to the total instead.

Perhaps the key record in handicapping this game is that New Mexico went 10-2 Over during the regular season, including a perfect 6-0 in Albuquerque. In fact, the Over cashed in each of the team's first seven games this year. Most of the totals were in this same neighborhood, but even though bowls tend to be high-scoring, I'm going the other way in this one. The key obviously will be how well can UTSA defend the New Mexico' rushing attack, which led the nation at 361 YPG. My guess is "a lot better than Wyoming" as the Pokes simply allowed themselves to be run over to the tune of 568 yds! In the regular season, UTSA wasn't that bad against the run, giving up "only" 158 yards at 4.4 YPC. They are used to seeing run-heavy offenses at this point. The New Mexico offense is not much of a threat to pass.

UTSA's own offensive production dips rather dramatically on the road, down to 22.8 PPG. That's about two touchdowns per game less than what they average at home. As a first time bowler, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Roadrunners start slow here. Getting back to the defense, a big help for the Roadrunners is that they have had a few weeks to prepare for the UNM triple option. Both of these teams like to predominantly run the ball, so as long as the defenses are providing some resistance, then that should lead to the clock continuing to roll and a quicker ballgame. These teams actually met in both 2013 and 2014 and the Under cashed both times. In each instance, the winning side scored just 21 points! I'm not saying this game will be that low-scoring, but the O/U line is still too high. 10* Under UTSA/New Mexico

8* Over Ravens/Patriots (8:30 ET): I am quite astonished that New England isn't getting its "usual amount of respect" for a home game here. Granted, they are w/o Rob Gronkowski and the Ravens have the top run defense in the NFL. But I still think the Pats can put quite a few points on the board Monday night as long as Tom Brady is the quarterback. This Baltimore defense, while stout against the run, still allows 4.9 yards per play as they've been quite susceptible through the air. Granted, they weren't last week against Miami, but that was due to them jumping all over the Dolphins early and thus the defense was able to play in a position of strength the rest of the way. Weather impacted a number of games Sunday, but it does not look as if it will play a role here. Take the Over.

Baltimore's offense had largely not been doing its part most of this season, but that changed in a major way w/ a 36-point effort LW vs. Miami. QB Joe Flacco threw for a season-best 386 yards in that victory and while you may be tempted to say "good luck" to him in his attempt to match that number against Bill Belichick, note New England has really benefited from facing a string of lousy QB's this year. The last three games alone they've faced Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colin Kaepernick and Jared Goff. No wonder they've allowed 17 pts or less in three straight games! Flacco and the Ravens certainly present a greater challenge here. Flacco has posted a 16-8 TD-INT ratio vs. the Patriots in his career and Baltimore has scored at least 20 points in eight of those nine games.

Of course, then we have Brady, who since returning from his four-game suspension has completed nearly 69 percent of his pass attempts w/ an incredible 19-1 TD-INT ratio. In the eight games w/ Brady at the helm, the offense has averaged 29.75 PPG. Sure, most of the defenses faced during that time are not as good as Baltimore's is, but as I said before the Ravens can be had through the air. Opposing QB's are completing over 64% of their pass attempts against their secondary and they, like New England, have hardly faced a litany of great offenses. 8* Over Ravens/Patriots

10* Over Jets/49ers (4:05 ET): For a second consecutive week, the Niners are favored. The role certainly didn't suit them well last week as they were humiliated 26-6 in Chicago. That outright defeat dropped them to 0-7 ATS in the favorite role their last seven chances. Incredibly, despite using two different QB's, San Fran managed just SIX passing yards last week. Not to be outdone, the Jets may have put forth an even more putrid performance LW as they basically no-showed in a 41-10 home loss to the Colts Monday night. Thus this shapes up as the ugliest matchup on the Week 14 card w/ virtually everyone looking to go Under the total. But, rarely do we find the percentage of total tickets so high on the Under. I'm going contrarian here and taking the Over as there's no way either offense will be as bad as they were last week.

The Jets are finally moving past QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who never should have been re-signed in the first place. Starting for the first time in his career will be Bryce Petty of Baylor fame. This may not sound inspiring to you, but making Petty's life easier is the fact that the 49ers defense is worst in the league against the run and it's not even close. San Fran allows a ghastly 169.3 YPG over land at 4.9 yards per pop. While the Jets have managed a total of only 100 rush yards (combined!) the L2 games, note the previous four weeks saw them gain 139+ every time out. For the year, the 49ers give up over 400 YPG and 30.8 PPG. Both of those averages rank dead last in the league.

Colin Kaepernick will again get the start despite LW's putrid performance. As bad as things have gone for Kaepernick this year, his TD-INT ratio and yards per pass attempt are both at their highest levels since the Super Bowl season of 2012. The Jets defense is nowhere near as good as it was in Todd Bowles' first year and is giving up 28.2 points per game on the road. The secondary was shredded last week by Andrew Luck and while there's a drop in class in terms of the opposing QB they will face here, I'm not positive that a short week will allow for the Jets secondary to cure all that ails them. For the year, they're giving up over a 65% completion rate. Weather should not be an issue in this game. 10* Over Jets/49ers

8* Over Ohio/Western Michigan (7:00 ET): For the first time in six seasons, Northern Illinois will NOT represent the MAC West in the Conference's Championship Game. That distinction instead belongs to Western Michigan, who is unbeaten and a monster favorite to win tonight against Frank Solich's Ohio University Bobcats. A case can be made that the favored Broncos are among the strongest MAC teams ever fielded. They have outscored their conference bretheren by almost 27 points per game and just became the first MAC team to beat Toledo by at least three scores since 2010. Only one time this year has WMU NOT won a game by at last 14 pts. So the price range is justified here, though Ohio is 7-1 ATS its last eight times as a dog and will certainly be playing w/ "house money" at Ford Field. Therefore, I'm turning to the total instead.

Ohio has lost four games this season, three by a TD or less and the other by nine at Tennessee. So they don't get blown out very often. But the one loss I want to focus in on to start the discussion is what happened in the first game of the season. In Athens, the Bobcats lost 56-54 to Texas State, the worst team in the entire country, in triple overtime. It was a game they led by 10 in the fourth quarter and by three w/ less than a minute to go in regulation. The game obviously went Over the total. But since then, NO Ohio game has managed to go Over the total! They are the top Under team in the nation at 10-1-1. But the defense figures to be challenged here like no other game this season. Case in point, the Over has cashed each of the L4 times these teams have met w/ WMU topping 40 each of the last three.

Obviously, for this game to go Over, Western Michigan will have to do most of the "heavy lifting." Fortunately, they come in averaging a healthy 44.7 points per game. They've topped 40 in seven of the last nine games overall. Even in one of the two they did not (vs. Buffalo), they still scored 38 and put up over 600 yds total offense. Ohio's defensive numbers have been built up at the expense of some of the MAC's more anemic offenses. Against Toledo, they allowed 560 yards. With WMU poised for 40+, we likely only need two TD's from Ohio, which is certainly "doable." Remember that this game is also being contested indoors on the fast track at Ford Field. 8* Over Ohio/Western Michigan

10* Over Chiefs/Broncos (8:30 ET): This is a big game in the AFC West as both teams are trying to keep pace w/ the first place Raiders. The loser here will be two games back w/ only five to play. There is a good shot that all three teams in the division make the playoffs. Denver is off its bye and at home, giving them a slight advantage, plus they have generally had KC's number the last few seasons. A seven-game series win streak was snapped in the second meeting LY thanks to a poor performance from Peyton Manning. But I'm staying away from the side here and instead turning to the total. The number is obviously low, but despite the perceived edges of the defenses, I see this one sneaking Over the total. This is the lowest total for either team to date in 2016.

The Chiefs have gone Under their last six games, which is a big reason this O/U line is so low. But it's how much lower than previous O/U lines that has caught my eye. The average O/U line for their games this season is 45.5. I think their defense has been a little overrated considering they're giving up an average of 410.7 yards per game the L3 weeks. They gave up 442 last week to Tampa Bay in a 19-17 upset loss at home. As you should be able to surmise from that score, the Bucs settled for a lot of field goals. Kansas City seems to have a real "bend but don't break" unit considering they are 25th in yards allowed, but 5th in scoring. That doesn't seem like a sustainable blueprint for success.

The Broncos' defense ranks 4th in yards allowed and eighth in scoring, so I'll give them the edge on that side of the ball. Offensively, note they have also scored at least 20 points in four consecutive games. I think that the bye will do wonders for this offense this week. Note that this is the lowest total for a Chiefs-Broncos game since Week 17 of 2011, which was the year we were all "blessed" with Tim Tebow as Denver QB. Each of the last seven meetings have seen at least 41 total points scored. The Broncos last three games have all seen at least 46 total points scored. I look for both QB's to make enough plays to held send this one Over the total. 10* Over Chiefs/Broncos

full analysis soon

10* Under Packers/Titans (1:00 ET): Green Bay has clearly been underachieving as they've been favored in all but one of their eight games, yet are just 4-4 SU. I went against them last week, at home vs. Indianapolis, expecting a close game. What I got was an outright win on the Colts, 31-26. The Pack did outgain the Colts mind you, but that's only a pyrrhic victory in what was the team's third loss by five points or less this season. Meanwhile, Tennessee has improved this year as they already have one more win than they did all of last season. But, it was a 43-35 loss LW at San Diego. GB looks tempting as this short of a road favorite, but their offense just isn't what it used to be. So let's go with the Under instead.

The Titans have gone Over in six straight games. As a result, we now have the highest total for any of their games this season. I was a bit 'snakebitten' in taking the Under LW in San Diego as that game as twice the Chargers scored a defensive TD. Granted, that wasn't enough to explain the discrepancy, but a few other factors are working in our favor here. One is Tennessee's defense shouldn't be as bad this week now that they're back at home. Two, I don't see their offense being very successful running the ball this week. They gained only 80 yards LW on 19 carries, but the Packers defense has excelled defending the run this year, allowing just 3.35 yards per carry (#1 in the league). Contrary to the way the rest of this league is going, Tennessee is a team that prefers to grind it out with the running game. That may not work here.

Sometimes you have to be a contrarian (I often am) and this figures to be one of the most popular Over choices of the week. This will be right with Atl-Phi and Mia-SD as one of the top choices of Over bettors. But, because of that, we can take advantage of a number that's been bet up. As I said before, the Packers' offense isn't humming like we're used to seeing. Shockingly, they are bottom 10 in the league in yards per play (5.3). On the road, that number dips to 5.1 and they are averaging less than 300 YPG. 10* Under Packers/Titans

10* Over LSU/Arkansas (7:00 ET): LSU is of course the ONLY team in the country yet to have gone Over in a single game this year. I tried teasing last week, but not even dropping an already low total seven points lower worked out vs. Alabama. Reminiscent of the dying days of the Les Miles' administration, the Bayou Bengals were shut out by Bama in a somewhat humiliating 10-0 loss where the offense gained all of 124 total yards! (I'd like to point out though that the other half of my teaser equation, LSU +15, did work out). Thankfully, the Tigers won't be facing Nick Saban again this season and it's worth noting that in the previous three games, they averaged 41.7 PPG. I like the Over Saturday night vs. Arkansas.

Arkansas can also score. They scored 31 last week in an impressive win over Florida here in Fayatteville. They gained 465 total yards on a defense that allows only 14.1 points and 268 yards per game. Of course, this offense has had no problems rolling at home this season as they average 35 PPG here and 448 yards. They've scored at least 30 in each of the last four home games. While the defense also showed up LW vs. the Gators, note Florida is a weak offensive foe. The Gators have gained less than 250 yards in three of their last four games. It is difficult to forget how this Arkansas defense was run over three weeks ago, to the tune of 546 rush yards, by Auburn in a humiliating 56-3 defeat. In case you forgot, LSU has a guy named Leonard Fournette in its offensive backfield.

A little surprising is that this is a double revenge spot for LSU. They have not lost three straight times to Arkansas since the 1920's. Les Miles' much maligned offense could only put up a total of 14 pts the L2 years vs. the Hogs, but I think there's far more hope w/ Ed Orgeron running the show. Again, things had really picked up the previous three games, including two 500+ yard efforts in SEC play. While Bama is by far #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, Arkansas is 57th. The Razorbacks are 4-2 Over in games that they are an underdog this season. This is the lowest total for any LSU game this season, including last week. 10* Over LSU/Arkansas

8* Under Boston College/Florida State (7:30 ET): Florida State has three losses. One, their first, was a 63-20 massacre at the hands of Louisville. The other two were by three points or less and by a total of five points (Clemson, UNC). While the pollsters have this team ranked #18, my view is that they are one of the top 10 teams in the country. So, I'm not about to fade them here, even though they have not won and covered a game as a favorite since 9.24 (vs. South Florida). Here, they'll be hosting a Boston College team w/ a fairly anemic offensive attack (avg 19.4 PPG), particularly on the road (15.2 PPG). These teams have combined to go Under in each of the L2 meetings. I see that trend continuing here. Take the Under.

Though I have them in my own Top 10, FSU is off a bit of shaky performance at NC State. They won, 24-20, but failed to cover as six-point chalk and were outgained 469-393. In three of last four games, the Seminoles have scored 24 pts or less. This offense is led by RB Dalvin Cook, but in the past BC has proven to be a difficult matchup for him. In 2015, the Eagles' defense held Cook to just 54 yds rushing, his season-low. In the 2014 game, it was only a 76-yard effort from Cook. While BC's defense has had some bad days this year, like LW vs. Louisville, they still are allowing only 107 YPG rushing. It should be pointed out that the Under is 22-9 in all BC games the L3 seasons, including 13-2 if they are off a conference loss.

Florida State's defense sorely misses standout safety Derwin James, but against weaker offensive opponents, they've been fine. BC certainly qualifies as a "weak offensive opponent," ranking 126th nationally in yards per game. To be clear, there are only 128 FBS teams. This is nothing new either; last year the Eagles averaged only 17.2 points and 276 yards per game. Last year, in Chesnut Hill, they were shutout by the 'Noles defense (14-0 final). Two years ago, the final score was 20-17. Overall, FSU is 8-1 Under in the month of November the last few seasons. I just don't see Boston College scoring much here and their defense should keep Florida State relatively in check. Therefore, I'm on the Under. 8* Under Boston College/Florida State

10* Under Bills/Seahawks (8:30 ET): Both teams' stock is relatively low right now. Buffalo started the season 0-2 SU/ATS and fired its offensive coordinator following a Thursday night loss to the Jets. What followed was a four-game win streak that included a shutout of the Patriots (no Brady). But they've since dropped B2B games, including LW's rematch to the Pats and thus we find them basically where we thought they'd be at this point of the season - .500. Seattle hasn't won in three weeks following a tie w/ Arizona and a surprising loss at New Orleans. They stand at 4-2-1 SU, but one has to figure homefield advantage will account for something tonight. Still, the number is a bit too high for my liking and I'm looking at the total instead.

These teams only meet once every four years, so the fact that every Bills-Seahawks game since 1989 has gone Over the total should be taken w/ a little grain of salt. Still, that's eight straight meetings though. The last time these teams played was 2012 in Toronto (remember that gimmick?) and Seattle won 50-17, basically kickstarting their ascension towards the top of the league. I wouldn't be looking for the Seahawks to score 50 pts again tonight, however. This offense can't run the ball at all. They average just 3.6 yards per carry, which ranks 27th, plus no team in the league has fewer runs of 15+ yards this year than does this one (3). The much maligned Seattle offensive line figures to have all sorts of trouble protecting QB Russell Wilson here as Buffalo ranks 1st in the league w/ 26 sacks. Wilson's health has been an issue and the 'Hawks have scored a grand total of 19 pts the L2 games. Particularly concerning was LW's 20-pt effort against an awful Saints defense.

While Seattle can't run, Buffalo often struggles to throw as they rank 31st in the league in passing. The Bills' own running game could be hampered if LeSean McCoy can't go. Of the team's five lowest scoring games this season, four took place on the road where they are now averaging just 18.7 points per game. As an underdog, Buffalo is 15-6 Under the L3 seasons. That includes 6-1 as a road dog of +3.5 to +7. 10* Under Bills/Seahawks

10* Under Titans/Chargers (4:25 ET): Though they lost LW at Denver (27-19), I still feel confident in asserting that San Diego is the "best 3-5 team in the league." The Lightning Bolts haven't lost a game by more than eight points all season and while some fans may be disappointed by the current record, note that the team has been favored only twice this season. This will be third time, even though Tennessee comes in on extended rest, fresh off an impressive 36-22 Thursday night win last week. But the Titans haven't played on the road in awhile. Then again, this team doesn't mind playing away from home as that's where two of their three wins have come this year. I'm staying away from the side here (SD has been kind to me as a dog, but don't like them as much when favored) and looking at the total.

Tennessee comes into this game having gone Over in each of its last five games. They are off a season high in points scored (36) and total yardage (494). Thus, I feel comfortable in calling for a decrease in production this week. Now after averaging just 15.5 PPG the first four weeks, the Titans are up to 30 PPG the L4 wks. But they've been fortunate to face some pretty weak defenses of late, such as the Colts and Browns. Here they'll go up against a fairly underrated Chargers defense that just held Denver to only 324 yards and 15 first downs last week. Also note that one of the TD's allowed by San Diego LW came on a INT return. This is also a much higher O/U line than usual for Tennessee.

Philip Rivers' weapons have dropped like flies this year. He lost top wideout Keenan Allen in the first game and has been making chicken soup out of you know what w/ an unheralded corps. This offense has put up some nice point totals (avg 28.1 PPG), but the unit is a bit overrated considering they rank outside the Top 10 in yards per game. Back to the defense, they are allowing only 20 PPG here a home. Last week's game at Denver did go Over, but only b/c there were two defensive TD's in that game, one per side. The Chargers' offense actually had only two scoring drives in that game. Observing the line movement, it appears as if sharp money is on the Under here. So am I. 10* Under Titans/Chargers

8* Over San Jose State/Boise State (10:15 ET): Like Central Michigan-Miami, this is a matchup where the underdog won and the favorite lost in those respective roles last week. Boise State's 30-28 loss at Wyoming (were 14.5-pt favorites) could prove quite costly, literally, as it puts the Broncos behind Western Michigan in the race for the top "Group of Five" team, a spot which gets honored with a placement in a "New Year's Day Bowl." I certainly do expect the Broncos to bounce back from their first loss of the season, but this price range is a little rich for my tastes, even though San Jose State is unlikely to match what we saw LW vs. UNLV, a game they led wire to wire and won 30-24. Instead, let's look at the total. Take the Over.

Both teams have been staying Under recently, so that means we should probably be prepared for some scoring breakthroughs. I say that knowing full well that SJSU had scored only 34 points total in the three games prior to LW's upset. Against UNLV, both WR's - Tre Hartley and Tim Crawley - posted career highs in receiving yardage. So, it's a lot to ask of this offense to come close to repeating what we saw last week. Fortunately though, Boise State figures to do most of the "heavy lifting" at the expense of a SJSU defense which has already given up 40 or more points four times this year. Furthermore, there have been only two games this season where they didn't give up at least 34. They allow nearly 500 YPG on the road. Last year, at home, they gave up 40 points in a loss to Boise State.

Things have not gone well for the Spartans here on the blue turf as they've lost all six previous visits by an average of 36 points per game! Boise State clearly will be in an ornery mood after LW's loss and this is an offense averaging just over 500 yards per game the L3 weeks. Yet, they've scored exactly 28 points in each of those three contests, which seems low. When they beat BYU two weeks ago, five turnovers prevented them from scoring more. Here, I expect the Broncos to top the 35.1 PPG that San Jose State allows. Also, Boise State is allowing 26.7 PPG the L3 weeks. The Over is 10-5 in SJSU's previous 15 road games. 8* Over San Jose St/Boise St

8* Over Buffalo/Ohio (6:05 ET): Both teams here are coming off massive upsets last week. I was on Buffalo last Thursday as they crushed Akron, as 17-pt home dogs, 41-20. Ohio, meanwhile, went to Toledo (were 15-pt dogs) and prevailed 31-26 (1st win in Toledo since '67!). That was the far more impressive win of the two, which is why we find Frank Solich's Bobcats as such prohibitive favorites for this Thursday night tilt in Athens. I have zero interest in playing the side in this one, but the total most definitely has caught my eye due to the rash of Unders we've seen from both teams. After going way over in its season opener (56-54 loss to Texas St in 3 OTs), Ohio is 7-0-1 Under its last eight games. Buffalo has gone Under in three straight and six of eight overall this season. Because of this, we have a pretty low total here. I say it's "high time" to take advantage and play these teams Over the total.

Right now, Ohio is in the driver's seat in the MAC East (1st place) and in line to take on conference heavyweight Western Michigan in the MAC Championship Game. They will be favored in two of their remaining three games, all of which will be played on weekdays. This is actually a big revenge game for the Bobcats as they lost LY in Buffalo - as two-point favorites - 41-17. Four of the last five meetings vs. the Bulls, including last year's, have gone Over the total. Buffalo, who snapped a four-game losing streak LW w/ its highest scoring game of the season, is just 2-6 SU this year. They are a perfect 6-0 Over the L3 seasons, on the road, when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points. 

This projects to be one of the lowest totals for either team this season. Though they scored a season high in points LW, Buffalo still stayed Under (barely) as the total closed at 62 points. The number was the same the prev week in a 44-7 loss at Northern Illinois. While it certainly is difficult to call for the Bulls to match LW's offensive production (they ran for 378 yards!), note that their leaky defense should rectify any regression in that department. Two of the previous three games saw them ALLOW 40+ points. For the year, they allow 31.7 PPG. Meanwhile, the rash of Unders for Ohio has not come w/o strong offensive efforts. Last week, they gained 500+ yards against Toledo. They average 35.2 PPG for the year here at Peden Stadium. Averaging 423 YPG for the year (all games) is nothing to "sneeze at" either. Save for a game against lowly Kent State, this will be the lowest total for any Bobcats game so far this season. 8* Over Buffalo/Ohio

10* Under Raiders/Bucs (1:00 ET): Here we have two teams that are nowhere good as their respective records might indicate. Oakland is 5-2, tied w/ Denver atop the AFC West. But that's despite ranking dead last in the league in yards per play and yards per game allowed and having a point differential of only +6 (worst in their division). The Silver and Black are off perhaps their most complete game of the year, a 33-16 win over Jacksonville that kept their road record perfect (now 4-0). Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has not won a home game, but is somehow 3-3 SU, even though their YTD point differential is -33! They too are off their most complete win of the year, 33-17 at San Francisco last week. Obviously, I'll steer clear of the side here, which means I'm going total, but not the way you're likely thinking.

The Bucs' defense is coming off B2B strong efforts. They forced seven turnovers in wins over Carolina and San Francisco. Last week, they fell behind 14-0 early, but held the 49ers to just 181 yards after that. Even in a 27-7 loss to Denver three weeks ago, the D gave up just over 300 yards. This week, though they'll be facing a Raiders offense that scored 33 pts last week, it gained a rather pedestrian 344 total yards. Thanks to three Jacksonville turnovers in that game, Oakland got a number of chances to work with "short fields." They had three scoring drives (13 points total) of 25 yards or less. The Under is 11-7 in Tampa's last 18 home games, including 4-1 if the total is between 45.5 and 49 pts. As of press time, this is one of the highest O/U lines on the board this week; only one is guaranteed to close higher. 

The Over is 6-0-1 the past seven meetings between these two teams, including the Super Bowl matchup at the end of the 2002 season. This number is significantly higher than any of the previous matchups. Of course, a lot of that has to do w/ the Raiders defense, but note they have had to play some of the top offenses in the league to this point. That includes New Orleans, Atlanta, San Diego and Kansas City. Last week, they held the anemic Jags to only 16 points. They've also held Tennessee to only 10 in an earlier road win. 10* Under Raiders/Bucs

10* Under Redskins/Lions (1:00 ET): Dating back to last year, Washington has been winning big for Over bettors. The Over is 10-1 their last 11 games overall including 5-1 this season. Last week's game vs. Philadelphia just snuck over the total of 45.0 (27-20 final), but note that the defense actually did not give up a single TD and allowed just 239 total yards. The Eagles' two touchdowns came on a kickoff return and an interception return. It was the third consecutive game that the Redskins allowed 20 points or fewer. Despite that, we find the highest O/U line for any of their 2016 games to date as they venture into the Motor City to take on a Lions team that has hardly been an offensive juggernaut itself the last several weeks. Take the Under.

Detroit opened this season by going to Indianapolis and pulling out a 39-35 outright win. But it's since been well-established that the Colts have one of the worst defenses in the entire league. Since that time, the Lions haven't been particularly impressive on offense. They did score 27 points against Green Bay in Week 3, but that was a byproduct of falling behind early and taking advantage of some soft Packers' coverage. The L3 games have seen the Lions held to an average of only 285 YPG. Last week against the Rams was the team's highest scoring game since the opener (31 points). But it was also the fourth straight week they failed to even gain 85 yards rushing. I do not expect them to run the ball w/ much effectiveness here as Theo Reddick has again been ruled out. Better coverage and tackling has resulted in Washington allowing just 15 second half points the L4 games. 

Four game win streak be damned, I'm still not a believer in Kirk Cousins. His propensity for turning the ball over is what kept the Eagles in the game last week. Now the Washington offense did roll up almost 500+ total yds against a good Eagles defense. But that was easily a season-high and will not be sustained. A key vs. Philadelphia was running for a stunning 230 rush yards. Detroit allowed only 76 LW to Todd Gurley and the Rams. Save for the Colts game, this is the highest total for any Lions game this year and there's a chance it could close higher than that season opener. Washington also won't have TE Jordan Reed, a big part of their offense, again. I can't see them being as successful as they were last week, here, without him. 10* Under Redskins/Lions

8* Over Southern Miss/LSU (7:30 ET): Along w/ conference mate South Carolina, LSU is one of just two teams in the nation that has yet to go Over in a single game this season. (Note: The Gamecocks pushed on LW's total vs. Georgia). Similar to how I'm calling for New Mexico's 1st Under elsewhere in this Trifecta, I'm thinking the Bayou Bengals will see their first Over here. Going back to LY, this team has actually now stayed Under the total in the L9 reg season contests. (Of course, that was preceded by a six-game Over streak). But so much of that was due to the antiquated offense the disposed Les Miles was running. New HC Ed Orgeron certainly seemed to have the offense in "high gear" in his debut two weeks ago, a 42-7 win over Missouri. Last week's game vs. Florida was postponed. Here, they go from facing some of the great defenses of the SEC to a Southern Miss squad that just gave up 55 pts LW to UTSA!

Brett Favre's alma mater was one of the great stories last year in College Football. The Golden Eagles broke out for a nine-win season in Todd Monken's third year in Hattiesburg. That's quite the turnaound from the one-win season his first year here. Unfortunately, Monken then departed for the NFL (OC of Bucs). Former Alcorn State (FCS) HC Jay Hopson is now at the helm and while the team is 4-2 SU, that's actually a little disappointing given the schedule. They did upset a SEC team (Kentucky) on the road in the season opener (44-35 as three-point dogs), but they've since dropped two games as a favorite of -9.5 or more. One was at home to Troy (37-31, -9.5), the other last week at UTSA, as a 17.5-pt choice, 55-32. The one positive takeaway from that game, particularly for our purposes here, is that the offense gained 557 total yards. Unlike LSU, most Southern Miss games have been quite high scoring. All but one have seen at least 56 total pts scored. Last week's 32 points (three turnovers) was actually a season low on offense. Their games are averaging 67.2 PPG overall so far.

By the way, LSU rolled up an incredible 634 total yards against Missouri! Granted, it appears as if RB Leonard Fournette will not play this week. But his absence wasn't felt when the Tigers rolled up 216 yds rushing against Missouri. Derrius Guice went for 163 yds (on just 17 carries) and three touchdowns, filling in quite nicely. He should have no problem gashing a USM defense which just allowed a frightening 339 yards rushing, at 9.7 yards per pop, to UTSA. 8* Over Southern Miss/LSU

8* Under New Mexico/Air Force (3:30 ET): At this stage of the season, there are only two teams in the entire country that have gone Over in every game. One is Louisville, which given their own 58.0 PPG scoring average, should not be a surprise. The other is New Mexico. In the case of the Lobos, it is a little more difficult to pinpoint why the Over has ended up being so profitable. Against FCS South Dakota, the big play was the key. They had six touchdowns of 40+ yards there. But that's an overmatched opponent. The following week, on the road, they gained only 336 total yards at New Mexico State. Another road game brought another loss the following week, at Rutgers, which in retrospect looks a lot worse now. Mountain West play began w/ a 48-41 in Albuquerque over San Jose State w/ the defense contributing a touchdown. Last week, hosting Boise State, did not go well. They gave up 42 pts in the 1H and two of their own three TD's came in garbage time.

Air Force comes into this game off its first loss of the season. They were 13-point favorites, but fell at Wyoming, 35-26. Four turnovers really hurt the Flyboys there. One, a fumble, was directly returned for a touchdown. It should be noted that it was a 7-0 game at the end of the first quarter. One thing I can say is that the AFA's final point totals have been very consistent the L3 games. They scored 27 and 28 in wins over Utah State and Navy. An issue is that the Falcons' rush offense is not as strong as previous years (just 44th in efficiency) Last week was a season high in points allowed as previously the defense had not allowed more than 21 in any game. So both defenses are off season highs in points allowed.

There are two keys in handicapping this game. One is that it is at a neutral site, the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Both offenses see their PPG total dip pretty significantly off-campus. UNM is averaging 6.0 PPG less below their overall season average on the road. Air Force is 6.7 PPG less. Interesting is that over the L3 games, there's been an average of just 16.7 PPG scored in the 1st Half of AFA games. The other key here is that both defenses should be well versed at defending the triple option because both see it in practice every day. The New Mexico defense is much better against the run (70th) than the pass (115th). Last week, they allowed 391 yards passing against Boise State, but only 65 yards rushing (on 29 carries). The same holds true for the AFA defense. Before allowing 189 yds rushing LW, they had allowed an average of just 1.7 YPC and that includes holding Navy to 57 yards on 38 carries. New Mexico has passed for only 84 yards TOTAL the last two games. With both teams running the ball almost exclusively here, I look for a "quick game" that ends up lower scoring than expected. 8* Under New Mexico/Air Force

8* Over Eastern Michigan/Ohio (2:00 ET): It appears to me that some "sharp money" has come in on the dog in this one. For Eastern Michigan to cover, let alone win, they'll likely have to continue their somewhat remarkable defensive improvement. Through six games, the Eagles are giving up an average of "just" 29.7 points per game and while that might not sound all too impressive, consider it includes them allowing 61 to Missouri. Also, each of the last three years, EMU has allowed an average of over 40 PPG. So there has been rapid improvement in year #3 in Ypsilanti under Chris Creighton. I, myself, got down on the Eagles LW as they stayed within the number against Toledo, losing only 35-20 as sizable (20.5-point) underdogs. That all being said, I wouldn't be shocked to see the defense struggle this week in a rare visit to Peden Stadium in Athens.

Ohio did not cover last week as they were laying double digits to an admittedly terrible Bowling Green squad. That being said, they still scored 30 points, a benchmark they have now hit in all three home games this year. Frank Solich's Bobcats opened the season by losing a heartbreaker here, 56-54 to Texas State in triple overtime, a game where the offense gained 630 yards (defense allowed 546). Since that loss, every OU game has stayed Under the total. However, save for a 17-7 win over hapless rival Miami, most of those games have fallen just short of the respective O/U lines. The L2 home games have seen 58 and 54 total pts scored. Yes, I'm aware that forced turnovers led to 17 pts vs. BGSU, but the Bobcats offense was remarkably efficient in that game. They ran 37 times for 183 yds and QB Greg Windham completed 21 of 29 pass attempts.

Both teams come in averaging exactly the same number of points per game at 32.3. Hitting that season average would lead to an Over here. EMU, like Ohio, is on an Under streak (four straight games). But, similarly, most of those games have been ending up w/ 50+ total pts. This O/U line has dropped during the week, creating more value. For all the "defensive improvement" that I mentioned earlier, the Eagles have allowed over 450 yds in B2B games. For the season, that number is just about 400 YPG. The Over is 14-3 in EMU's L17 games following a DD loss at home. The last two times these teams met ('12 and '13), Ohio went over 500 yds both times and averaged over 50 PPG themselves. 8* Over Eastern Michigan/Ohio

10* Under Bucs/Panthers (8:30 ET): Carolina led the NFL in points per game last season (31.3), but happened to do so in spite of the fact they actually finished just outside of the top 10 in yards per game. That's sure seems like an "unsustainable business model," no? Ironically, they are fourth in yards per game this year (386.5), but only eighth in points (27.3). Funny how that works! Certainly, there should be an expectation of an offensive decline here w/ Derek Anderson and not Cam Newton as the starting QB. Those making the argument that Anderson is a "capable backup" and that there "won't be any kind of huge dropoff at the QB position" best check that opinion at the door as there isn't a single competent football mind that would consider playing Anderson over Newton in a non-injury situation. 

Tampa Bay has been real "feast or famine" offensively through the first four games. Twice, including last week, they've been held to just seven points. They came into the week w/ the worst point differential in the entire league. QB Jameis Winston continues to turn the ball over too much (Bucs are -9 in TO department thus far) and I don't see him taking advantage of the Panthers' secondary in the same way Falcons QB Matt Ryan did last week. Furthermore, Winston doesn't have a receiver like Julio Jones to throw to. Through four games, the Bucs offense ranks outside the top 20 in both yards and points per game. They average only 82.5 YPG rushing. Missing here will be RB Doug Martin as well as his backup Charles Sims. Also out is WR Cecil Shorts III.

Carolina has beaten Tampa Bay six straight times and the Over cashed both times in LY's sweep. That was largely owed to the fact that the Panthers averaged 37.5 PPG in the two wins. I just don't see that happening here. Both of Anderson's starts w/ Carolina have come against Tampa Bay. Both games took place in the 2014 season. Both stayed Under w/ the Panthers averaging just 19.5 PPG, roughly half what they scored LY w/ Newton behind center. On the defensive side of the ball, I do expect a bounce back from Carolina after being embarrassed last week. Tampa Bay is 10-5 Under as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, including 6-3 on the road when priced at +7.5 or less. 10* Under Bucs/Panthers

8* Under Giants/Packers (8:30 ET): Overwhelmingly one-sided public betting on the Over has me now going the other way Sunday night. The Giants have been held to 20 pts or less in three of four games this season (27th in PPG) and have major internal issues right now w/ WR Odell Beckham Jr. Their defense, save for the Redskins loss (which was also their highest scoring game on offense) has been much improved as well. They've held Dallas, New Orleans and Minnesota all to 24 points or less. The G-Men are 29-14 Under L43 road games when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. 

Don't look for the Giants to have much success running the ball in this game. They are w/o RB Rashad Jennings and will be going against a Packers' defense that has allowed no more than 50 yds rushing in any of its three games! Allowing averages of just 43 YPG rushing on 1.8 YPC are easily both league bests coming into this game. This will put a lot of pressure on Manning, who is already having to endure the Beckham drama.

Even though WR Jordy Nelson is back, the Packers' offense just doesn't seem to be a strong as it once was. The Week 3 win over the Lions saw them gain a season-high in total yards, but even then the number was just 324 total yards. Both Minnesota and Jacksonville were able to hold them under 300 total yds.  As I said earlier, the Giants defense is much improved this year. This will likely close as the highest O/U line for any Green Bay game this season. It will be the second highest for the Giants, falling short of only the Saints game that had a 53-pt total. Of course, the final score there was only 16-13 and the offense failed to score even a single touchdown on what was the league's worst defense in 2015.  8* Under Giants/Packers

10* Under Boise State/New Mexico (9:00 ET): The big thing here is the revenge angle as LY saw New Mexico stun Boise 31-24 as 30-point underdogs on the blue turf. That puts Lobos HC Bob Davie at 4-0 ATS all-time against the Broncos, including a pair of close games here in Albuquerque. I don't doubt for a second that BSU will highly motivated to erase the memory of LY's embarrassing setback. But, clearly, I'm not alone in that line of thinking and as a result we probably have an inflated line that I have no interest in playing. Instead, where I feel the true value lies in this game is w/ total. New Mexico is one of only a handful of teams left in the country to have gone Over in every single game so far, but this figures to be their highest total yet. Take the Under. 

Helping to drive this O/U line up is that New Mexico is coming off a wild 48-41 win over San Jose State. That game saw well over 900 total yards and for UNM 90% of theirs (446 of 491) come on the ground (more on this in a bit). It was the second time this season that the Lobos scored 48 pts in a game, but the first carries little weight as it was at the expense of FCS South Dakota. In between, they went on the road and scored 31 and 28 pts in a pair of road games against New Mexico State (won, but did not cover) and Rutgers (lost and failed to cover). So, clearly Davie's defense needs some help. Despite beating Boise LY, the Lobos did surrender 641 total yards and 40 first downs in that game! Note though that coming into this year, UNM was on an 11-6 Under run when in the underdog role. The total for last year's game was nearly a full TD lower. It was just a 14-3 game at the half.

Earlier in the analysis, I mentioned the New Mexico run game. It is the bread and butter of the offense as they don't pass all that often (just eight attempts LW). Well, unfortunately for them, Boise State's defense has proven to be quite stingy against the run so far. Despite losing their entire starting D-line from LY, this group is giving up an average of just 72 YPG rushing (on 2.4 YPC) through four games. In last week's 21-10 win over Utah State, they allowed just 71 on 25 carries. The only offense to really give the Broncos any trouble so far was pass-happy Washington State, who is basically the exact opposite of New Mexico. BSU is 3-1 Under so far and the most combined pts scored in any of their games was 65. They're still unbeaten (4-0) w/ both road wins seeing them hold their opponents under 300 total yards. 10* Under Boise State/New Mexico

8* Over Cardinals/49ers (8:25 ET): There's some question as to whom will be quarterbacking for Arizona here, Carson Palmer (concussion) or Drew Stanton. Regardless, I expect them to score points here against a 49ers defense that has given up an average of nearly 36 points per game the L3 weeks and just lost its best player (Navarro Bowman) for the remainder of the season. It has been a shockingly poor start this year for the Cards, who already have as many losses (3) as they did at the end of the regular season last year. They've scored just 31 points the L2 games, B2B losses to the Bills and Rams. But this has the makings of a "get well" situation. It's also a really low total, likely Arizona's lowest of the season. Provided they don't turn the ball over like they have the L2 weeks (10 TO's!), they should score plenty of points. They did roll up 420 yds LW against a much better defense (Rams) than they'll see here.

Last year, the 49ers pulled out a surprise Week 1 win in the late game of the MNF doubleheader (beat Vikings). Things quickly went south though as they finished 5-11 SU (and the record probably should have been worse). This year, they again won the late Monday nighter (28-0 shutout of the Rams), but the pattern has been similar w/ three consecutive losses. They've scored only 35 total points the L2 games, but one of those was against Seattle and it's top flight defense. Obviously, Blaine Gabbert won't scare anybody as the team ranks 32nd (last!) in the league in passing. But RB Carlos Hyde is tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns w/ four. I still trust Chip Kelly, in his 1st year here, to get the offense going.

Arizona has a running back, David Johnson, who leads the league in total yards from scrimmage. So, if Stanton does start, expect the offense to go through Johnson. Three of the last four times these teams have played, the Under has cashed w/ the lone exception being LY's home win by the Cardinals where they put up 47 points themselves. But I could see this game ending up like my successful Over play from Sunday night (Chiefs-Steelers) where one team handles the bulk of the scoring. This total is just too low. 8* Over Cardinals/49ers

10* Under Western Kentucky/La Tech (8:00 ET): This total is going up, up and up, thus we've got a situation where there's value in going the other way. Western Kentucky, despite four straight non-covers, comes in as the road favorite. Last week's ATS loss was a little "unfair" though; they were 52-pt favorites against FCS school Houston Baptist in a 50-3 win. The Hilltoppers have also had to play Alabama (lost 38-10 in Tuscaloosa) and speaking of the SEC, they were favored (by 8.5!) to beat Vandy (lost 31-30 despite 496-389 edge in total yards). A Week 3 road win at Miami (OH) saw them laying 18.5 and they prevailed there, but only by a score of 31-24. Really, you'd have to go back to Wk 1 and a 46-14 home triumph over Rice (were -19.5) to find WKU's "best" performance of the year.

Louisiana Tech is off a blowout win themselves, 28-7 over UTEP. They were 22.5-pt favorites in that contest, so they failed to cover. They were also outgained 415-387. It was actually a 14-7 game early in the fourth quarter, at home, and key for the Bulldogs was winning the TO margin by two. Still, it was a refreshing performance from the LA Tech defense after B2B losses (on the road) to Texas Tech and Middle Tennessee where they gave up nearly 100 total points. Like WKU, La Tech's best offensive performance of the year (53 pts) came against a FCS foe (S Carolina St). Also like WKU, they have suffered a one-point loss to an SEC opponent, in their case Arkansas, who got them in the opener, 21-20.

These teams played early last season and it was a 41-38 home win for WKU (as a 1-pt dog) in Bowling Green (I had WKU!). The year prior, La Tech won at home, 59-10 as seven-point chalk. So we're used to seeing a high scoring affair from these two relatively new conference rivals. But a big difference between this year and last is both squads lost quality starting QB's to graduation, Brandon Doughty for WKU (school's all-time passing leader) and Jeff Driskel for La Tech. Thus, I do not believe either to be as explosive as they were in 2015. The Hilltoppers are 4-1 Under this season already and this total is likely to close as their highest of the season to date. With the two teams combining to allow only 10 total points last week, I like the Under. 10* Under Western Kentucky/La Tech

10* Over Chiefs/Steelers (8:25 ET): Both of these teams failed to impress on offense last week. Pittsburgh was held w/o a touchdown in a shocking blowout loss at Philadelphia. Kansas City's result (24-3 win over Jets) needs to be taken w/ a grain of salt as it was greatly aided by eight forced turnovers! (Keep in mind the Chiefs were #2 in TO margin LY; a market correction is overdue here). Though the last four Chiefs-Steelers matchups (all since 2011) have all stayed Under the total, I see both offenses bouncing back this week, leading to a game that will be higher scoring than expected. Needless to say, I don't think anybody, myself included, expected to see the Steelers averaging only 21.7 points per game through three weeks. Take the Over.

Of course, last week negatively skews all Pittsburgh offensive statistics. The first two games saw them average 31.0 PPG in wins over Washington and Cincinnati, both division winners from a year ago. Now, an offense already loaded with top notch skill position players gets RB LeVeon Bell back. In case you forgot, Bell (suspended first three games) is as good as any running back in this league. Kansas City allows 123 rushing YPG. Of course, Pittsburgh also happens to have the top WR in the league as well, Antonio Brown. They will be facing a very banged up Chiefs' defense that continues to be w/o Justin Houston (PUP list), Tamba Hali and now possibly both starting corners. Neither Marcus Peters nor Phillip Gaines practiced two days ago. Gaines is the one less likely to play. 

Kansas City runs a similar offense to Philadelphia. That's bad news for the (not) Steel Curtain, which has allowed 300+ yds passing in every game so far. This is a young secondary that did not look good LW vs. the Eagles. Even running backs seem to be exploiting the Steelers' suspect pass coverage. They have allowed 100+ yds receiving to Gio Bernard and Darren Sproles the L2 wks. The Kansas City running game, which averages 4.2 yards per carry, should find success here as well. Jamaal Charles may play here. So both offenses should be able to move the ball here. Pittsburgh, usually a strong bet at home and in primetime, has seen the Over cash six of the last seven times they've been a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 pts. 10* Over Chiefs/Steelers

10* Under Browns/Redskins (1:00 ET): Cleveland treated me well last week. I didn't even need to watch overtime against Miami as I was getting 10 points, thus it was an automatic winner on my end. Sadly for the Browns, it wound up being another loss as they gave up a touchdown in the extra period to fall 30-24. This offense, quarterbacked by rookie third-stringer Cody Kessler, was actually only responsible for 17 pts last week and that was against a bad defense. The Browns' defense scored a TD on an INT return and that kind of production certainly cannot be counted on a week to week basis. Week 1 was only a 10-pt effort from the Cleveland offense and Week 2 was just two big plays and a drive set up by a turnover. The Browns won't score much here, but neither will the Redskins. Take the Under.

Washington got its first win of the year last week, coming from behind to beat the Giants 29-27. That too was a win for me as I took the points w/ the Skins. I'm not about to back them in this spot, however, as QB Kirk Cousins is 0-6 ATS as a favorite in his career w/ four outright losses. Five of those games have seen the offense score 23 pts or less, four have seen them held below 20. I still have my questions about Cousins despite the fact he ranks near the top of the league in passing yardage. The first two games saw Cousins and the 'Skins offense account for just 39 total points. Yet both games still went Over as did last week's win. Washington's last eight games, dating back to last year, have now all gone Over. That seems like a streak that's due to end, no? 

While in line with most Redskins totals for the year, this number figures to close as the highest for any Browns game to date. Again, Cody Kessler is this team's starting QB. He began the year as third string. This is an offense that had limited options to begin with. Now Josh Gordon, once their most dynamic playmaker, has been released (drugs). Rookie WR Corey Coleman broke his hand and is out several weeks as a result. I really see this team struggling to put points on the board moving forward as a result. Cleveland comes in averaging only 18.0 PPG while Washington is at 22.7. Add those numbers up and it's a TD less than the actual total here. 10* Under Browns/Redskins

10* Over Dolphins/Bengals (8:25 ET): The last time these teams met, Over bettors thought they had one "in the bag." It was a 20-20 game entering overtime (total of 43.0), so no worse that a "push" right? Wrong. Miami actually won on a walkoff safety, giving them (and Under bettors) a 22-20 win. But the Dolphins defense is much worse this go around and I expect Cincy to score at will. I look for the Under streak of three in head to head meetings to come to a halt Thursday night as the Bengals have always proven to be more prolific offensively at home. They aren't facing Denver or Pittsburgh this week. Take the Over.

Miami's defense got off to a good start in holding Seattle to just 12 points in Week 1. Since then, however, it's been all downhill. They were torched early by New England, giving up 31 points to Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett. Last week, even in victory, might have been worse. As big home favorites, they allowed 24 pts and 430 total yards to a Cleveland team that was starting Cody Kessler. They made Terrelle Pryor look like one of the most talented offensive players in the league. Bengals QB Andy Dalton comes in leading the league in passing (938 yards). Cincy was able to run the ball last week against Denver's fearsome defense and Miami ranks near the bottom of the league in rush defense after allowing 160+ yards B2B weeks. The Over is 5-1 in the Bengals' last six home games when the total is 42.5 to 45 points. 

Miami has scored 24 pts in regulation B2B weeks. Granted, they struggle running the ball and on third down. The offensive line is really banged up. But the Bengals have allowed at least 22 pts in every game so far. A first year starter (Trevor Siemian) exploded against the last week for 300+ yards and 4 TD passes. This week, their secondary will be w/o CB Dre Kirkpatrick. I do expect the front seven to get the job done now that Vontaze Burfict is back from suspension, but a few big plays stand to be made by Miami in the passing game w/ WR Jarvis Landry, particularly if they fall behind again like they did at New England. Miami did gain 426 total yards on offense last week. This is a low total. 10* Over Dolphins/Bengals

10* Under Chargers/Colts (4:25 ET): Both of these teams have gone Over in their two games so far. However, that's a bit misleading. From the Indianapolis perspective, LW's game at Denver only went Over due to a late FG + defensive TD (2nd of the game) from the Broncos. In fact, that late TD also cost Colts backers the cover. As for San Diego, their defense has played much better than anticipated, save for one 4th quarter meltdown against the Chiefs in Week 1. Both TD's given up to Jacksonville last week came in garbage time. However, if there is one worry with the Chargers, it's that skill position players appear to be "dropping like flies." Therefore, they may not be able to take full advantage of a suspect and injured Colts defense. I'm on the Under here.

For San Diego, the offense has already suffered two major season-ending injuries: WR Keenan Allen and RB Danny Woodhead. Those are major losses. TE Antonio Gates is also unlikely to play here. QB Philip Rivers has still managed to deliver a 5-0 TD-INT ratio in spite of this, but how long can he keep it up? Yes, he's going up against a defense that has given up a NFL-high 73 points through two games. But I look for SD to be more of running team this week as Melvin Gordon is starting to emerge in his sophomore season. Note that over the last three seasons, the Over is 9-2 in Chargers games when the closing line is three points or less. That includes a 6-1 mark as a road underdog. The Indianapolis defense only allowed 20 pts last week when factoring out the defensive TDs. 

San Diego defensive coordinator John Pagano is the brother of Indianapolis' HC Chuck. So there's familiarity there. Also, John will be bringing in a rapidly improving defense. In Week 1, the Chargers held the Chiefs to only 10 points through three quarters before melting down late. Last week, the passing yards accumulated by Blake Bortles and Jacksonville all came late. This time, the Lightning Bolts had too big of a lead to blow. Until the 4Q last week, the Jags didn't have a single drive last longer than six plays. That's trouble for Andrew Luck and a Colts offense that is w/o WR Donte Moncrief. Last week, facing an admittedly top defense, Indy gained only 253 total yds. This is actually the third straight year the Colts have opened 0-2. I don't like this team at all right now, especially w/ Luck batting an injured throwing shoulder. Look for a fare lower scoring game than expected here. 10* Under Chargers/Colts

10* Under Penn State/Michigan (3:30 ET): Both of these teams come in at 3-0 Over, a fact that has made this O/U line much higher than it should be. Yes, Penn State comes in averaging 35.3 PPG (scored between 33 and 39 pts in all three games) and Michigan is averaging a whopping 53.0 PPG. But the respective final scores last week were unfair to both defenses. I'll get to that in a moment. Just know that this is the highest O/U line for either team this season, for Penn State, significantly so. Not only that, but this may be the highest O/U line for any PSU/Michigan game - ever! Note that last year's total was just 43 and only snuck Over when a late Wolverines TD made it 28-16. The year prior, it was only an 18-13 final (again in favor of UM). Take the Under. 

Let's get to those misleading finals last week, shall we? For Penn State, they actually held Temple to only 13 first downs, but still allowed 27 points. I was certainly happy to get the cover w/ the Owls, but it was lucky. Two Temple touchdown drives started inside the PSU 10-yard line as a result of turnovers. The Nittany Lions obviously struggled to stop the run against Pitt the week prior (341 yds allowed on 56 carries), but were much improved in that department against Temple, allowing just 38 yds on 28 carries. Michigan, for all their strengths, hasn't been that effective at running the ball the L2 weeks. They averaged just 3.5 YPC against UCF and Colorado.

Michigan's 45-28 win last week featured THREE non-offensive touchdowns. The Wolverines' special teams scored twice, on a blocked punt and a punt return. Colorado's defense also scored early in the game on a strip sack. So take away all those "extra scores" and the final looks a lot different. The Michigan defense had no problems in the first two games, holding Hawaii and UCF to just 17 total points. They've yet to allow more than 325 total yds in a game this year. Incredibly, the Over has now cashed in the L11 Michigan games dating back to last year. That's a streak that is "due" to end, in my opinion. Again, this will be a higher total than any of those previous 11 games. This is by far the toughest opponent - and defense - either team has faced so far this season. 10* Under Penn State/Michigan

10* Under Cowboys/Redskins (1:00 ET): Neither team had an enjoyable Week 1. Dallas lost 20-19 to the Giants while Washington was rather humiliated Monday night, losing 38-16 here at home to Pittsburgh. The road team has actually won outright in each of the previous five editions of this NFC East rivalry, so that coupled w/ this being the 'Skins second straight home game, has me off the side (I'd lean Dallas). Instead, with neither offense impressing much LW, I'm looking at the total and going Under. Curiously, this number has come DOWN despite the overwhelming number of tickets being written on the Over. That's a signal to me of some "sharp action" and even though I chose to go Over on two separate occasions last week, typically playing the Under is the way to go in divisional matchups such as this.

I think that we can all agree that Washington QB Kirk Cousins is bound to regress in 2016. His TD-INT ratio from LY was totally unsustainable. Sure enough, he threw a couple of picks against the Steelers and what should have been a third was blatantly dropped (that drive ended in a Washington field goal). You like that? The Redskins offense scored only one touchdown LW and it didn't come until early in the fourth quarter. Yes, Cousins has completed at least 65 percent of his pass attempts in nine consecutive games. One more and he ties Joe Montana for the all-time record. But most of Cousins' throws tend to be "low risk, low reward." Washington hardly even attempted to run the ball vs. the Steelers, gaining only 55 yards on 12 carries. I have the Dallas' defense improving this season and after holding a better Giants offense to only 20 pts, they should do just fine here.

Going back to last year, the Redskins have actually gone Over in six straight games (excludes preseason). But, as is the case w/ Cousins, all good streaks must end. After being gashed LW by the Steelers, the Washington defense should be more helpful here as they'll be facing a rookie QB making his second career start (Dak Prescott), not Ben Roethlisberger. That's a major difference. The Cowboys offense, which is predicated on running the ball, scored only 19 pts LW against a questionable Giants' defense. Six points came on two 50-plus yard field goals. Like the Redskins, they did not score a first half TD. Dez Bryant had just one catch for eight yards.  The Under is 6-1 in the Cowboys' last seven games following a SU loss. 10* Under Cowboys/Redskins

10* Over Rams/49ers (10:15 ET): There were 13 NFL games played yday. Only two had a total lower than this one. In today's NFL, an O/U line in the low 40's is quite low and the reality of the matter is that it doesn't take much to send it over. We saw this is the Minnesota-Tennessee game yday, which had the lowest O/U line on the board and went Over thanks to a pair of defensive scores. In the second game of tonight's MNF doubleheader, we've got two bad teams, and while the defenses are thought to be the respective strengths, I think this one ends up higher scoring than expected. Both Rams vs. 49ers' matchups stayed Under last season, as did 12 of the Rams' 16 games overall, but that's helped create value in going the other way here. Take the Over.

There is much hoopla surrounding the Rams' return to Los Angeles, but the bottom line is that this has been a mediocre (at best!) team throughout Jeff Fisher's tenure. I don't expect substantial improvement in 2016 despite what you may have seen on "Hard Knocks." Fisher is clearly desperate to hold onto his job. Why else would he forsake starting #1 overall DC Jared Goff in favor of Case Keenum? As far as the growth of the team goes, I don't agree with that decision at all, but at least it probably helps our cause here. Goff struggled in the preseason and at least Keenum has NFL starting experience. Keenum may be the one better suited to putting more points on the board in these early season games. He can of course simply hand the ball off to Todd Gurley, who ran for 133 yards in his lone game against this defense last season. San Francisco allowed 124 YPG rushing a season ago. 

Another QB decision I don't agree with is the 49ers going w/ Blaine Gabbert over Colin Kaepernick. "The book has been written" with Gabbert and his record as a starter tells the story. But, I do concede that he did have his best day as a pro against these Rams in the season finale last year. There, he threw for 354 yards in a 19-16 win. I just can't envision the 49ers' offense not being better than it was a year ago. Remember, Chip Kelly has come on board and that means tempo. It also may mean his own defense could tire by the end of this game, because the time of possession never seems to be in his team's favor. The ticket count on the Under here is really high, which is very unusual, given that Over is typically the public play. That too has swayed me to the Over. 10* Over Rams/49ers

10* Over Bucs/Falcons (1:00 ET): A crazy thing happened w/ Atlanta last year - they stayed Under in each of the L12 games! That includes both against division rival Tampa Bay, a 23-20 loss at home and a 23-19 loss on the road. One would have to think that total trend will start to reverse itself in 2016 as the league's top Under team last year should probably start to see some low totals. For a frame of reference, note the O/U line for the Falcons' season opener LY (vs. Philadelphia) was 55! Matt Ryan and the offense were quite disappointing throughout the previous campaign, averaging just 21.2 PPG, thereby negating the gains made by the defense in the 1st year under HC Dan Quinn. At home, there's no reason to expect the Falcons won't score more against the Bucs this year, so I'm on the Over. 

Tampa Bay jumped from 2 to 6 wins last season, but that didn't stop the front office from jettisoning Lovie Smith in favor of OC Dirk Koetter. The Bucs also averaged just a hair over three touchdowns per game last season, but that was w/ a rookie QB (Jameis Winston). Working with Koetter, much is expected of Winston in year two and I look for a much better season from his top receiver, Mike Evans. The Bucs' offense was one of the best in the league at running the ball a year ago as they averaged 135 YPG.  The problem w/ the defense is that it's a "stars and scrubs" approach that never works. They have talented players at all three levels (DT Gerald McCoy, LB LaVonte David and 1st round DC Vernon Hargreaves), but a lot of subpar talent on that side of the ball as well.

These teams have two things in common. One is a 4,000+ yard passer. The other is a consistent failure to bring pressure on opposing QBs. Thus, Winston and Ryan should both have big days here. Ryan has thrown for 4,000+ yards in five consecutive seasons, but LY's TD-INT ratio (21-16) was the worst of his career. Many of those interceptions came at the worst places, like in the end zone, which are just back-breakers. I anticipate Ryan taking better care of the football in 2016 and the team's 6-0 Under mark in divisional games from last year should take a turn. 10* Over Bucs/Falcons

10* Over Ball State/Indiana (4:00 ET): Indiana definitely got me last Thursday as they exploded for a 22-point fourth quarter rally to top FIU 34-13 as 10-pt chalk. The Hoosiers returned not one, but TWO interceptions for touchdowns and had a safety go their way. So that's basically 16 pts from the defensive side of the ball, something that cannot be relied upon on a weekly basis. But before you go dismissing the offense's contribution, take note they actually gained an impressive 486 yards and 26 first downs. This was a group that averaged 36.5 PPG a year ago. I expect offensive improvement this week (in terms of points scored) to counteract the lost defensive production and see this game w/ in-state "rival" Ball State sneaking past the total. Take the Over. 

Like Indiana, Ball State's first game also stayed Under the total. But that result was not w/o a little bit of "controversy." Up 31-21 as 6.5-pt dogs at Georgia State, the Cardinals elected to kneel on the GSU 2-yd line w/ two minutes to go. That decision, which in terms of managing the game was the correct one, cost Over bettors as the number was 55.5 (needed a TD). BSU's defense actually only allowed 272 total yards, which was surprising considering they ranked 121st in FBS in total defense last season. They do have nine starters back on that side of the ball, but I don't think anyone was expecting that kind of improvement. The offense was very impressive though in rolling up 325 yards rushing. The Under was 8-3 for BSU last year, so considering that and last week's close call, the Over is due to starting hitting for this team sooner rather than later. 

Indiana, meanwhile, was one of the top Over teams in the country last season (11-2 OU). So, last week was a real departure and the game actually fell well short of expectations (total was 64.5). This number has come down after opening at 64, so there's now value in going the other way. Yes, I cited the loss of QB Sudfeld and RB Howard as a reason to fade the Hoosiers LW, but it appears as if the offense will be just fine w/o them. As for the defense, they allowed 37.6 PPG last year while BSU was at 35.8. This should turn into a shootout like the last meeting between the schools did, a 41-39 Cardinals win here in Bloomington back in 2012. 10* Over Ball State/Indiana

10* Over Notre Dame/Texas (7:30 ET): The Longhorns finished 5-7 SU last year, but were a lot better than that record as they suffered three losses by a field goal or less. I expect them to be much improved here in Charlie Strong's third year in Austin, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. Strong has brought in a new OC/QB coach in Sterlin Gilbert, who should totally transform this unit. Gilbert comes over from Tulsa where his offense averaged a whopping 502.8 YPG last season! Gilbert will be working w/ a true frosh at QB (Shane Buechele), but he should be an upgrade from LY's starter Tyrone Swoopes. It will be a "Baylor-style" offense being implemented here and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Texas offense increase its scoring average by double digits in 2016.

Notre Dame is going w/ two quarterbacks in this game, DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire. Both will have to deal with a depleted receiving corps and the loss of last season's top rusher CJ Prosise. Nevertheless, Kelly is somewhat of an offensive guru and there were only two games in 2015 where his offense failed to score at least 28 points. One was against Clemson, who obviously was unbeaten until the National Championship Game. The other came against a Boston College team whose defense led the entire nation in scoring. So scoring points shouldn't be an issue this year in South Bend. Defense, on the other hand, could be a problem w/ the four top tacklers and sack leader having departed. Complicating matters is the recent dismissal of senior safety Max Redfield, who may have been the most important player in DC Brian VanGorder's scheme.

Notre Dame thrashed Texas last year up in South Bend, 38-3, totaling 527 yards. So we certainly know they are capable of moving the ball on this Longhorns defense. I don't think they'll be quite as proficient as last year, but again, there were just the two games where they failed to score at least 28 points. But the major key here is the improvement from the Texas offense compared to last year. The ticket count on the Under is shockingly high (Over is almost always the more popular bet), so in a contrarian move I'm on the Over here as the Longhorns' offense is far more equipped to match Notre Dame's this year. 10* Over Notre Dame/Texas

10* Under Panthers/Broncos (6:30 ET):  After cashing the Under in Denver's AFC Championship Game victory and the Over in Carolina's NFC Championship Game victory, I had a choice to make here and I'm again calling for another relatively low-scoring Broncos game. Certainly many of the reasons I thought the AFC Championship Game would stay Under the total still apply here.  We have Denver's defense, which gave up the fewest yards per game in the regular season and was fourth in scoring (18.5 PPG allowed). That group has now held both Pittsburgh and New England (two of the league's top offenses) under 20 points in these playoffs.  We're also now substituting in a Panthers defense, which during the regular season gave up just slightly less points per game (0.4) than the Patriots did. They just held a potentially explosive Arizona offense to just 15 points in the NFC Championship Game. Under is my top play for Super Bowl 50.

Now Carolina did go Over the NFC Champ Game total all by themselves (scored 49 pts).  But to me, without question, Denver's defense will be the best that Cam Newton and company will have faced all season.  The Broncos incredible ability to generate pressure on the quarterback (#1 in both pressure and sack rate) was fully evident against the Patriots and that was with sending only three or maybe four rushers at a time. Denver will have to respect the running game more here, but then again they allow just 3.3 yards per rush attempt. Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger is the only QB to have thrown for 300+ yards against this Broncos defense this season (did it twice), but Big Ben has a much better group of receivers and the Steelers went w/ a pass-heavy approach in both games. Denver has now played 18 games this year and has allowed 20 or fewer points in two-thirds (12) of them.

Substitute Wade Phillips' defense in for virtually any other in the league and they would be the strength of just about every team. But with this year's Broncos, there is no denying that the defense has had to carry the offense.  Peyton Manning has endured easily the worst statistical season of his career this year. Since his return from injury, many of the scoring drives he has "led" have been blessed with outstanding field position. In fact, take away last week's opening TD drive vs. New England and six of their other nine scoring drives in the playoffs have gone for 30 yards or LESS, many of them resulting in only field goals. Remember that Carolina's defense also allows fewer than 20 PPG and not only did they hold Arizona to just 15 points last week, they held Seattle scoreless in the first half in the Divisional Round. I expect that both of the offenses in this game will be forced into third down quite a bit.  Avoiding turnovers (for both teams) is also key here as takeaways have led to many of the scores in both teams' games this postseason. The Panthers have returned an INT for a touchdown in both playoff games, so those final point totals are a bit misleading. Additionally, Super Bowl scoring tends to start out very slow due to all the pomp and circumstance, not to mention the layoff and stakes involved.  Look for Super Bowl 50 to be ruled by the defenses.  10* Under Panthers/Broncos

10* Over Cardinals/Panthers (6:40 ET):  I'm not at all surprised where the pointspread is at for this matchup as we have the top two teams in the league in scoring differential (Carolina #1, Arizona #2) and the respective points scored vs. points allowed are nearly identical. Both offenses come in averaging slightly more than 30 points per game w/ Carolina at 31.2 and Arizona at 30.3.  There wasn't another team in the league above the 30 PPG threshold. On defense, Carolina allows 19.5 PPG and Arizona 19.6, both good enough to be in the top 10. But because of notable injuries in both secondaries, I feel that it will be more likely to see the respective offenses in top form as opposed to the defenses.  Take the Over. 

For Carolina, they have a big time issue at cornerback, opposite Josh Norman. Last week, Seattle fell into such an early hole that you may not have noticed that they began to exploit that very issue in the second half.  Whether it was Robert McClain or Cortland Finnegan, Russell Wilson had a field day picking apart the Panthers' second corner. Keep in mind that neither of those players were with the team prior to December 15th. If there is one team uniquely qualified to best take advantage of such subpar secondary depth, it would be Arizona, who has an excellent receiving group. Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown all had strong years and Norman will only be able to cover one at a time. Cardinals QB Carson Palmer struggled big-time last week, but I anticipate he'll take advantage of Panthers' depleted secondary (which really struggled LW when bliztes didn't get home and there's no Jared Allen this week) and have a big bounce back game.

Carolina's offense didn't average as many yards per game as Arizona's did, but they will have the best offensive player on the field Sunday night in the form of probable league MVP, Cam Newton. When Newton looks downfield in this game, he won't see Tyrann Mathieu and that should bring a big smile to his face. The Panthers may not have the same quality receiving corps that Arizona does, but considering what Aaron Rodgers was able to engineer last week with a real "skeleton crew," that's not necessarily important.  Newton has been able to make "chicken salad" out of you know what all season, throwing for over 4,000 yards at 7.7 yards per attempt. He faced plenty of blitzing this year, which the Cardinals will undoubtedly do a lot of here, and typically performed well in those situations. The Panthers have scored 31 or more points in seven of their last eight games and I'd pay no mind to the scoreless second half last week as they clearly took their "foot off the gas pedal." 10* Over Cardinals/Panthers

8* Under Patriots/Broncos (3:00 ET):  When these teams met on this same field back in Week 12, I took both Denver and the Over. Both plays won, yet so much was misleading about the 30-24 score in favor of the Broncos. For starters, the game went to overtime, which only serves to inflate the final tally. Interestingly, only because of overtime did Denver get to 30 points, something we have not seen the offense do in any other game this season! Then there was the fact it was just a 14-7 game entering the fourth quarter.  Down 21-7, Denver took advantage of a short field (off a muffed punt) to score its second touchdown of the game and things took a dramatic turn from there. Interestingly, five of the game's scoring drives were 60 yards or shorter, including the game winner, which was capped by a 47-yard CJ Anderson touchdown. The total is a little higher here than it was for the regular season matchup, but I expect the rematch to be lower scoring than the original, significantly lower scoring in fact. Take the Under.

Clearly, a big difference between this and the Week 12 matchup is the presence of Peyton Manning. But as I discussed in last week's analysis (going against the Broncos), I'm not sure if Manning is a significant upgrade from Brock Osweiler, or even an upgrade at all. Last week, the Broncos offense scored one touchdown and it came directly after a Steelers fumble set them up on a relatively short field. Looking at the five drives that ended up w/ a field goal, four of them went for 30 yards or less, three starting on the Pittsburgh side of the field.  Manning has had a terrible year in Gary Kubiak's offense, even after transitioning back into his preferred shotgun formation. Some of that was due to injury, but the fact remains that this offense has been held under 25 points in regulation in eight of Manning's 10 starts. One of the two exceptions was the wild Week 2 win at Kansas City, won on a defensive score, the other was a unique thrashing of Green Bay.

Lest we forget that we'll have two of the best defenses in the game on the field in Sunday's AFC Championship Game.  Denver has allowed the fewest yards in the league and only Pittsburgh was able to score more than 30 points against the league's #4 scoring defense. The Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger is the only QB to throw for 300+ yards against them (did it twice). It will be interesting to see if the Patriots employ the same pass-heavy approach we saw last week vs. Kansas City as Denver's defense was the best against the pass in the regular season. Meanwhile, don't sleep on the New England defense either, which ranked 9th overall and 10th in scoring (19.7 PPG). They held the conservative Alex Smith to less than five yards per pass last week and I can't see Manning doing a whole lot better. Yes, Denver's offense was plagued by drops last week, but whatever nominal gains they have in that department here will be offset by a Patriots defense that's playing well.  8* Under Patriots/Broncos

10* Under Packers/Cardinals (8:15 ET):  While Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense seemed to receive the majority of the accolades in last week's 35-18 Wild Card win over Washington, I'd like to reiterate what I said about the team's defense in my analysis for that matchup. This is a group that is allowing only 20.1 points per game for the year and really coming into its own. Only three times in the last 14 games have they allowed more than that season-long average! This is a pretty high total for a playoff game and Green Bay is 2-0 Under this season when the O/U is 50 pts or higher, including their regular season meeting with the Cardinals where Rodgers played the worst game of his entire career.  Take the Under.

Now, I obviously anticipate Saturday night's game being a lot closer than the regular season matchup, which was won by Arizona 38-8.  But it needs to be discussed just how much the Arizona defense dominated that game. They held Rodgers to his second lowest QBR (ESPN stat) of his career and the Packers offense to just 178 yards total. Rodgers was sacked nine times (!) and the Cardinals forced five fumbles (recovered three), returning two of them for touchdowns. Prior to scoring their lone touchdown of the game (in the third quarter), Green Bay's first seven drives (excluding kneel down at the end of the first half) all ended w/ a punt or a turnover and none of them went for more than 27 yards. Four went for six yards or less.

Arizona scored two defensive touchdowns in that 38-8 win, so take those away and there's really little reason to like the Over here, particularly w/ such a high O/U line. Green Bay was held to 17 points or less in six of its final 13 regular season contests. Rodgers won't have to deal with Tyrann Mathieu here, but I wouldn't look for a repeat of last week's 35-point performance either.  Washington's porous defense was an ideal matchup for them as the Redskins ranked 25th against the pass and 26th against the run.  It's unlikely that we will see the Packers run for 141 yds again like they did last week. Arizona's defense ranks 8th against the pass and 6th against the run. However, Green Bay's defense will be able to keep them in this one.  Interesting is the fact that the public has been pounding the Over here, but the number has remained relatively unchanged. I think that 24 points is a realistic expectation for the winning side. 10* Under Packers/Cardinals

8* Over Alabama/Clemson (8:30 ET):  These two teams combined for 75 points in their respective semifinal victories, yet both games stayed Under the total due to holding the respective opponents in check. Clemson shut Oklahoma out in the second half while Alabama shut Michigan State out for the game. Here, I anticipate each defense encountering a little "more resistance." Yes, these teams are 1-2 in terms of defensive efficiency. But, the offenses have hit their stride and in the case of Clemson, never really lost it. The Tigers come in averaging 38.4 points and 512 yards per game this season and those yards actually go UP outside of Death Valley. As for Alabama, they have averaged 36.6 PPG their last five. Take the Over.

Only three times this season was Clemson's offense held below 30 points. They moved the ball at will against Oklahoma, rolling up 530 total yards, 312 of them coming on the ground. Consider that was a good Sooners defense, one that came in allowing just 20.7 PPG. That's been pretty "par for the course" as the unbeaten Tigers now gain 156 YPG more than their opponents typically allow. In DeShaun Watson, they have the kind of quarterback that has, historically speaking, given Nick Saban defenses trouble. Watson, a dual threat, has accounted for a ridiculous 53 touchdowns this year. He is far more mobile than Chad Kelly of Ole Miss, who handed 'Bama their only loss this season and put up 433 yards of offense.

Alabama was held under 29 points just once all season (Tennessee) and QB Jake Coker is coming off the best game of his career. Duplicating his performance against Michigan State here is unlikely due to the Clemson defense not being nearly the ideal matchup, but the Tigers defense has been a little "bend, but don't break" this season. They are giving up 5.5 yards per point the L3 games and Oklahoma actually rang up almost 400 total yards. The Tigers did a remarkable job at stopping Oklahoma's run game in the semifinal, but now must respect both the Alabama passing and running game due to what Coker did on New Year's Eve. The Over had cashed five straight times for Clemson away from home prior to their NYE win. 8* Over Alabama/Clemson

10* Under Packers/Redskins (4:45 ET): Green Bay did not look good down the stretch, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. With Aaron Rodgers, that's surprising (even w/ a depleted WR corps), but the bottom line is that this team hasn't topped 30 points one time since starting the season a perfect 6-0. They really struggled in the L2 games, totaling just 21 points in losses to Arizona and Minnesota. Shockingly, there were four other games this season where the Pack were held to 17 pts or fewer, making it six total or nearly half their games. At the same time, Kirk Cousins and Washington doesn't scare me despite their recent strong offensive form. I like this one to finish Under the total.

With Rodgers and the Packers' offense struggling to get back on track, do not be surprised if it is the team's defense that carries them in this one. That unit allowed just 20.2 points per game this season. They were torched by Arizona two weeks ago, but other than that, allowed more than 20 points just three other times in the past 13 games. Against Minnesota last week, they allowed only 242 yards total, including just 91 through the air. In their only two games against playoff teams (New England & Carolina), the Washington offense was held to an average of only 16 points per game and gained just 250 and 196 total yards. Cousins, while improved, remains a question mark on this stage. He struggles against the blitz and the Packers defense blitzes a lot. Opposing QB's completed only 58.6% of their pass attempts against GB (4th lowest in the league) and Washington averages less than 100 YPG rushing. Green Bay went Under in 11 of their 16 regular season games.

The Redskins' own defense is pretty strong as well, at least in the first halves of games and of late. Here at home, they are allowing just 18.6 PPG including only 6.0 in the first half. They were often susceptible through the air, but the bottom line is that six of eight visiting teams this year were held to 20 points or fewer. Over the L3 games, the 'Skins have allowed an average of just 8.0 PPG in the 1st half while during that same time frame, Green Bay has averaged only 5.6!  Look for a low-scoring start to the game to hold up and this game to stay Under the total. 10* Under Packers/Redskins

10* Under NC State/Mississippi State (3:30 ET):  Despite the strong quarterback play on both sides here, I'm on the Under in the Belk Bowl. It seems as if the public, predictably, is firmly in the Miss St-Over parlay camp here. But, at least as the total concerned, the number has been bet up far too much. Now, we have seen a good number of high scoring bowl games recently. But those mostly involved two teams with bad defenses. That isn't the case here. Even when factoring in a wild 51-50 win over Arkansas, MSU still allowed only 22.8 points per game for the year and only three other teams scored more than 21 against them. Three were ranked 18th or higher at the time (one was Alabama). Meanwhile, NC State actually allowed fewer points per game on the road, giving up just 19.0.  Take the Under.

Jacoby Brissett is the player to watch for North Carolina State. The Wolfpack QB is less heralded than his Bulldog counterpart, Dak Prescott, but honestly is just as good.  The issue here, on both sides. is that when you factor out the lesser opponents on the respective schedules, the offensive numbers begin to look a lot less impressive. NC State destroyed its four weak non-conference opponents, scoring 35 or more each time. But they scored that many in only half of their ACC games. The same holds true for Mississippi State, who was held under 20 points in half of its SEC games. 

NC State's defense allowed 30+ points only three times during the regular season. Those games came against Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina. Every other opponent, but one (Virginia Tech) was held to under 21 points and 310 total yards! That's impressive. As is the Wolfpack's pass rush. DE Mike Rose was 8th in the country w/ 10.5 sacks and three defensive lineman had 10+ tackles for loss. The defense also finished w/ 12 interceptions. In terms of value, NC State played only three games in the regular season where the closing total was 60 pts or higher. Mississippi State did so only five times and three of those stayed Under.  One that did not was a game against overmatched Northwestern State where the Bulldogs scored 62 pts themselves. This number is just too high. 10* Under NC State/Mississippi State

10* Over Bengals/Broncos (8:25 ET): This is one of the lowest NFL totals I've seen all season. I suppose that this should not be all that surprising. We have two of the best defenses in the league here and a matchup that will likely determine who gets a 1st round bye in the AFC Playoffs (and who doesn't), thus it should be a playoff-like atmosphere in cold Denver Monday night.  But, in the modern NFL, a number like this is just far too low. Yes, neither defense allows 20 points per game and in the case of each offense, it is a "backup" QB at the helm. But both offenses are more than capable of helping send this one Over the total. Take the Over. These teams played to a 38-27 final (won by Cincinnati) last season on Monday Night Football, the third straight Over in series history. 

For Denver, Brock Osweiler is a "backup" in name only. He's clearly been a better option than the embattled Peyton Manning this season and he proved that by directing a 27-point first half last week in Pittsburgh. Unfortunately though, the Broncos failed to score after halftime. Incredibly, that was the offense's third consecutive game doing so! Troubling for sure, but that first half showed me what Osweiler can do. He'll be going against a Bengals defense that allows just 17.4 points per game (1st in the league), but I think the Broncos can easily top that number as Cincy has been a little fortunate to allow 19.4 yards per point this season.  Opposing QB's are completing 65% of their passes against this defense and two games ago, they gave up 33 points to Pittsburgh.  The thing to consider w/ Cincinnati is that they've been facing a lot of bad offenses lately (Houston, Cleveland twice, St. Louis and San Francisco). 

The Bengals offense averages 29 PPG on the road and had scored 30+ in three consecutive contests before Andy Dalton got hurt. Still though, with AJ McCarron at the helm, they scored 24 points LW against what is a pretty good 49ers defense (don't laugh!). They did struggle to run the ball, but McCarron showed me an ability to throw the ball downfield. Denver's defense has given up 24 or more points in four of the last seven games and again, the exceptions have come against the "lesser" offenses they have faced. There's no reason to believe that this can't be a 24-17 game, which of course means the Over would be a winner. 10* Over Bengals/Broncos

10* Under Patriots/Jets (1:00 ET): If you're a regular reader/client of mine, then you know that I'm a firm believer that when you have two division rivals playing for a second time, fewer points should be expected. I expect that to be the case here in a critical game for both the Patriots and Jets, which should have a "playoff-like" vibe to it. New England has regained control of homefield advantage in the AFC and can clinch the #1 overall seed w/ a win here. The Jets, who could finish 11-5 SU and still MISS the playoffs, desperately needs to keep winning and hope either Kansas City or Pittsburgh slips up once in these last two weeks (not likely). The first meeting of the year (where I cashed the Jets +9) was surprisingly high-scoring (Patriots won 30-23) even though neither team really put up a ton of yards. I expect a much lower scoring game this week. Take the Under.

In that Week 7 win over the Jets, New England almost exclusively went to the pass as they gained just 16 yards rushing - for the entire game! Few teams have had success running the ball this year against the Jets, who are #2 in the league in that department (just 82.8 YPG allowed).  The issue here is that Tom Brady won't likely have the same success passing the ball like in the first matchup as his receivers have been "dropping like flies" (injuries) throughout the season. The Pats did manage to score 30+ points for the first time in seven weeks last Sunday, but consider that a) they were playing the Titans and b) one of their three touchdowns came from the defense.

The Jets are top five in the league in total defense and top eight in scoring (just 19.4 PPG allowed). Besides the first meeting with the Patriots, there has been only one other game where they allowed more than 24 points and it too came on the road (at Oakland). The team's last three games have all stayed Under and five of the last six have seen 43 or fewer total points scored. However, what surprised me the most when handicapping this rematch is the fact New England actually allows fewer points per game than the Jets (19.2). Take away the three non-offensive TD's Philadelphia scored against them a few weeks back and this unit's recent string of performances look all the more impressive. 10* Under Patriots/Jets

10* Under Redskins/Eagles (8:25 ET):  This one falls under the domain of a divisional rematch, which usually end up being lower scoring than the "original." Such was the case Thursday w/ Chargers-Raiders. I made a bad decision in that one, electing to only go with the 1st Half Under as it was the second half where the scoring screeched to a grinding halt. Here, we have a matchup of two teams that played to a 23-20 final the first go around and curiously the total is higher for the rematch. Perhaps that has to do w/ both teams more recent outputs, but I expect this game to have a more "playoff-like" mentality as there's a chance (if Washington wins) the NFC East could actually be decided here.  Take the Under.

When handicapping the Redskins, one must obviously consider the strong home-road dichotomy that is in play. Prior to winning in Chicago two weeks ago, this is a team that didn't have a road win to its name all season. It's not even really QB Kirk Cousins to blame for the decline in offensive production when the Redskins take their act on the road, but rather an anemic rushing attack which averages a paltry 54 yards per game outside of D.C. Overall, the offense averages just 18.3 points per game on the road, well under its overall season average. The 24 points they scored two weeks ago against the Bears was their highest scoring game on the road all season. 

Washington is 4-2 Over on the road because of a defense that has surrendered over 30 PPG in those contests, but I'm not sure Philadelphia has the offense to take appropriate advantage of this. Take out the three non-offensive TD's they scored against the Patriots a few weeks ago and over the last six games, the team has scored just 104 points total or an average of 17.3 per game. Now, they did gain over 400+ total yards LW vs. Arizona and they will be able to move the ball against this Washington defense. But I don't see this turning into any kind of shootout w/ the Eagles averaging just 21.7 PPG at home this year. Consider that when these teams met earlier in the year, Philadelphia was shutout in the first half.  10* Under Redskins/Eagles

10* Over Ga Southern/Bowling Green (8:00 ET):  It's a bit of a unique circumstance in this year's GoDaddy Bowl as we have two teams that lost their respective head coaches to other jobs. Bowling Green's Dino Babers bolted for Syracuse and coaching here will be Brian Ward (interim), even though a permanent successor has already been hired (former Tex Tech RB coach Mike Jinks).  Georgia Southern also goes w/ an interim HC here (Dell McGee) after Willie Fritz took the Tulane job. It was just three days ago that they hired his permanent successor, former Colorado State defensive coordinator Tyson Summers. With hardly anyone on the sidelines Wednesday sticking around for the long haul and both offenses more than capable of putting up big numbers, I'm on the Over in this one.

Bowling Green has one of the most prolific offenses in the entire country (5th in FBS in total yards) and will not miss Babers here. That's because they have a senior QB (Matt Johnson), who threw for 4700 yards w/ an incredible 43-8 TD-INT ratio.  He leads an offense that averaged 43.4 points and 561 yards per game during the regular season. Only once did the Falcons fail to go over 500 yards in a game (loss to Toledo). Armed w/ all that info, you might be surprised to learn that BGSU actually finished the regular season by going Under in its last four games. But three of those totals were north of 70 pts and all were higher than this one. The Falcons should have no problem moving the ball in this game against a Georgia Southern defense that in four games contested on turf allowed nearly six yards per play.

Georgia Southern can also put up a ton of points and yards, albeit in a totally different manner than Bowling Green. While the Falcons will throw more often than not, the underdogs will almost exclusively run the ball. In fact, no team gained fewer yards via the pass during the regular season than did GSU (just 742!).  But that didn't stop them from averaging 417 YPG, 356 of its coming on the ground at 6.5 yards per clip.  Bowling Green gives up 162 rushing yards per game. Georgia Southern topped 40 points in over half their games (seven times) during the regular season. This will be one of those bowl games that's all offense & no defense. 10* Over Ga Southern/Bowling Green

10* Over Dolphins/Chargers (4:25 ET):  In an atypically busy 4 PM slate of games, this matchup of AFC also-rans isn't likely to attract much, if any, attention. But when it comes to the total at least, there's some pretty good value here.  Sure, San Diego has been horrible offensively of late (though they did cash as double digit dogs for me last week!), scoring exactly three points in three of the last four games. But this one falls into the concept of two bad teams playing late in the season and that means little defense is likely to be played. Miami certainly didn't put up much of a defensive effort Monday night in a 31-24 loss to the Giants (where I cashed BOTH side & total!) and working on a short week after going cross-country isn't likely to inspire any kind of improved effort.  Take the Over. 

I wrote fairly extensively last week about the Dolphins' defensive ineptitude. I'll reiterate how this unit now ranks 28th in yards allowed and 26th in points. Monday night marked the fourth time in the last seven games that they allowed more than 30 points.  This has to be "music to the ears" to Chargers' QB Philip Rivers, who is in line for a big game. Particularly so, if he gets something from the dormant rushing attack, which will be going against Miami's 30th ranked rush defense. Last week saw Rivers and company have to deal with a driving rainstorm and an excellent Cheifs defense, two things that will not be present in sunny San Diego on Sunday afternoon. The Chargers did actually move the ball some last week vs. the Chiefs w/ four drives of six or more plays resulting in zero points, including the final one, which lasted 17 plays and 74 yards, but ended with an incompletion in the end zone on the game's final play.

Miami was able to stay in the game Monday night because they were facing a suspect Giants defense and this week they'll be going up against a similarly bad defense.  San Diego has allowed 26.9 PPG at home this season and allowed opposing QB's to complete over 69 percent of their pass attempts! So, Dolphins' QB Ryan Tannehill could be in line for a much-needed big game as well. The offense was at about 60 yards above their season average vs. the Giants last week and had 17 pts in the first half alone.  They also need to start giving RB Lamar Miller more carries (over 7.0 YPC Monday night).  San Diego's run defense (127 YPG allowed) is also one of the worst in football (27th).  In what could be the final NFL game ever at Qualcomm Stadium, expect a shootout. 10* Over Dolphins/Chargers

10* Over Buccaneers/Rams (8:25 ET): Part of me has a slight lean towards Tampa Bay in this matchup. They are off a very disappointing loss last week, at home, to New Orleans. That loss not only prevented them from topping their season win total, but also pretty much killed off whatever small chance they had at making the playoffs. Meanwhile, St. Louis was a winner for me on Sunday, beating Detroit w/ a defensive touchdown being the difference in the game. That win and cover snapped a 5-game ATS slide for the Rams.  However, I'm far more locked into the total now for this Thursday night matchup (rematch of 1999 NFC Championship Game!). While neither offense was impressive LW, this total is low and I anticipate more points being score than expected. Take the Over. 

Now, I am aware that the Rams have gone Under the total in four straight games, not to mention seven of their last eight. Take away last week's defensive score and the team has not scored 20 points in six consecutive contests. But this Bucs defense isn't to be feared, particularly on the road where they allow opposing QB's to complete nearly 70 percent (!) of their pass attempts (69.4%) and 384 total yards per game. They were right at that average LW at home vs. the Saints, giving up 388 yds in the 24-17 loss and Drew Brees completed 31 passes.  St. Louis clearly will try and run the ball more as we saw them run for a season-best 203 yds LW.  Re-establishing Todd Gurley went a long way against the Lions and though the Bucs' have actually done an outstanding job at stopping the run recently, they haven't faced a back as dangerous as Gurley during that time.

St. Louis has actually beaten Tampa Bay each of the last three seasons and all three times the game stayed Under. But the Bucs now have Jameis Winston at QB and while he may have had a disappointing day vs. what had been an awful Saints' defense, I expect him to bounce back tonight. Yes, four of the last six games have seen the Bucs fail to score 20 points. But when you have two bad teams likes this, late in the season, defense often becomes optional. Quietly, Tampa Bay has the fourth best rushing offense in the NFL (141.2 YPG), so they should be able to move the ball in this one. In the end, this is a really low total by today's NFL standards and for the Bucs, they are 4-1 Over this season when the O/U line is between 40 and 42 points w/ all four Overs seeing at least 56 total pts scored! 10* Over Bucs/Rams

10* Over Giants/Dolphins (8:30 ET):  Both of these teams come in at 5-7 SU and have been outgained in 10 of their 12 games. So, from that perspective, they appear to be evenly matched.  Also, neither has a very good defense (Miami 27th, Giants 31st) in terms of yards allowed.  While I absolutely prefer one side in this matchup (don't miss my *10* SUPER POWER), I love the total even more. Considering how bad the respective defenses have been, I'm on the Over in this one.  Yes, Under players had a big day Sunday and Miami is off an awful offensive performance in its last game. But, those factors have helped keep this number lower than what it should be.  Take the Over.

There have been just two games all season where the Giants have failed to score 20 points.  Both came against division opponents. The most recent being a rematch w/ Washington (typically divisional rematches lower scoring than the original).  Including that game, the G-Men are off their lowest scoring two-game stretch of the season as LW saw them get held to only 20 points in a loss to the Jets. They would have scored more, and possibly won, had it not been for a failed fourth down attempt inside the 5-yard line.  The Redskins & Jets also have solid defenses.  The Dolphins do not.  They allow 25 points and 390 yards per game and have given up 33+ in three of their last six games.  Eli Manning has averaged 300+ yards passing the L3 weeks and had averaged over 40 attempts per game over a four-game stretch prior to LW.

While the Giants offense should have a big night, it would be wrong to expect their defense to pitch a shutout.  They are dead last in the league, allowing 424 YPG (6.2 yard per play!), so expect Miami to do better than the paltry 15 points and 219 yards they put up last week vs. Baltimore.  QB Ryan Tannehill should fare well against the league's worst pass defense, but the real key here is probably the Giants' own rushing attack going up against a Dolphins' run defense that allows 134.8 yards per game.  I look for this one to turn into a shootout. 10* Over Giants/Dolphins

10* Under Steelers/Bengals (1:00 ET):  If you were on board last week, then perhaps you'll recall how I laid out a theory behind divisional rematches, generally, ending up lower scoring than the original. Things played out just the way I'd hoped with Arizona-St. Louis as the two combined for only 30 points, which 16 points fewer than they combined for in the first meeting and more importantly 13 fewer than the posted total. It's a bit of a different situation this week with Pittsburgh at Cincinnati as we will have two offenses to worry about, not one (St. Louis was a virtual non-factor in LW's play), and while these two AFC North rivals played to a 16-10 final the first go-around, it's not likely we will be getting a lower-scoring rematch here. But, then again, it doesn't have to be. The oddsmakers have been "kind enough" to give us plenty of points to work with; even though the first meeting stayed way Under the total. This one will too. Take the Under.

Cincinnati destroyed Cleveland last week in what was a rare bad call by me and one of only two losses I took in Week 13 (went 7-2 overall). But while that particular matchup ended up being completely lopsided (37-3), total yardage was actually fairly even until late in the third quarter when two late Bengals' drives accounted for 60 yards. It should also be noted that 23 of the Bengals' 37 points came after the Browns turned it over via a fumble/INT/downs or a missed field goal. Pittsburgh's defense, which allows just 20.0 points per game, will clearly offer greater resistance. Of course, you can't sleep on this Bengals' defense either as it is #1 in the league in points allowed and gives up only 15.2 PPG at home, and is the driving force behind the fact the team has gone Under in five of its last six games. During that time, they've allowed 10 pts or fewer five times!

Pittsburgh's offense exploded for a season-high 45 points last week in their own beatdown (of Indianapolis), a  Sunday night game where I cashed them in the 1st half. That made it four consecutive games of 30+ points for the Steelers, but I seriously doubt they'll even approach that threshold here. I was surprised to find that the Black & Gold average only 20 PPG on the road and remember that Ben Roethlisberger was the QB when they were held to a season-low 10 points in the first meeting w/ the Bengals.  Not only that, but Big Ben was held to a season low in yards per pass attempt (5.8).  Cincinnati's offense was held to just six points until the final three minutes of that game! Again, I'm not sure this will be a lower-scoring game than the first matchup (probably won't), but it doesn't have to be and I love the fact that the number was bet up during the course of the week. 10* Under Steelers/Bengals

10* Under Cardinals/Rams (1:00 ET):  Divisional rematches, often times, end up lower-scoring than the original.  I realize that I somewhat "violated" this axiom by getting down on the Over Monday night (which did cash, mind you!). However, for what it's worth, Ravens-Browns 2 did actually feature fewer points than the first time they played and if you subtract the THREE non-offensive TD's that were scored in that game (though I didn't mind them at the time!), then it would have been significantly lower-scoring. This week, I'm taking this idea into account for a Cardinals-Rams, a matchup that saw St. Louis actually win the first go-around, 24-22, even though Arizona had a 2:1 edge in first downs (-3 in turnovers). While calling for the Cardinals to exact revenge might seem appropriate to some here, I like the Under more.

Arizona has been one of the best team's in the league all season, but last week saw them resemble last year's more fortunate bunch as they clearly "played down" to the level of competition in San Francisco, escaping w/ only a 20-13 victory. I covered w/ the home dog there and once again the Cardinals will be facing a stingy defense as the Rams permit just 18.4 points per game.  The Cards were able to gain 447 total yards in that first meeting, but I don't see them coming close to matching that output here, not w/ the running game that's currently in bad shape.  Both Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington are out and the former is a significant loss as he was fourth in the league in rushing. This leaves rookie David Johnson as the primary, and possibly only, ball carrier and he has been plagued by fumbling issues. The Rams defense allows just 92 YPG on the ground at home, so a potentially one-dimensional Arizona offense should struggle to move the ball Sunday.

A play on St. Louis this week would require quite the leap of faith as their offense is in shambles right now. They don't have a competent QB on the roster (as much as they "ripped off" Washington in the RG3 trade, it's not like it's translated into any real success) as Case Keenum is two weeks removed from a concussion and Nick Foles has just been awful all year. The offense has failed to gain 300 yards each of the last three games, averaging just 11.0 PPG and there have been seven times this season where they've failed to break 20 pts.  Rookie Todd Gurley had a strong effort in the first meeting w/ Arizona (140+ yds rushing), but he won't come close to matching that here as his numbers are down in recent weeks (54.8 YPG L4 wks) & Arizona is allowing just 91 rushing YPG on the season. St. Louis' passing game is virtually non-existent, a major reason the team has gone Under in six of its last seven games. 10* Under Cardinals/Rams

10* Over Ravens/Browns (8:25 ET): Much will be made here of who ISN'T on the field for the respective offenses. What had already been a nightmare season for Baltimore somehow took a further turn for the worse (even in victory) last week as both QB Joe Flacco (ACL/MCL) and RB Justin Forsett (broken arm) were lost for the season! That leaves journeyman Matt Schaub under center and keep in mind that both of the team's projected starting receivers are out for the year as well! As for Cleveland, you know they upset the execs at ESPN when the decision was made to bench Johnny Manziel for this game due to the "same old" off-field antics we've come to expect. Despite all the absences, I'm still anticipating a relatively high scoring affair here or enough to go Over what is a very low total by today's NFL standards. Take the Over.

These teams already played once this season and the result of that first meeting was a 33-30 OT win for the Browns, who haven't won since.  It's been five straight losses in Cleveland and in the last four games, they've averaged a pathetic 11.25 points and less than 300 yds per game. For as much talk about how Manziel can be a more "dynamic" element for this offense, it was veteran Josh McCown that had a career day vs. Baltimore last month, throwing for a career-best 457 yards. That was easily Cleveland's best offensive day of the season and it's not difficult to see why. The Ravens' defense has fallen off a cliff this year, yielding 5.7 yards per play and almost 25 points per game. Another season-ending injury, one to top pass-rusher Terrelle Suggs, has been a contributing factor there. But, there's also as little talent on that side of the ball as we've even seen in Baltimore.  I see no reason why McCown can't have another big day here.

Nationally, this is obviously a very unappealing matchup. But because both teams are out of it, we could very well see another shootout. Cleveland's defense is one of the worst in the league statistically as they allow 27.7 PPG and Baltimore should absolutely be able to run the ball effectively here as the Browns yield 139 rushing YPG, most in the league. All four Browns' home games to this point have gone Over the total as they've scored at least 20 points every time out. Both teams should be able to get to that benchmark tonight in what could end up being an entertaining, albeit totally meaningless, game.  10* Over Ravens/Browns

10* Over Patriots/Broncos (8:30 ET): This is actually a matchup of the top two scoring defenses in the league, which is not what you expect when analyzing Patriots-Broncos as it's normally the offense grabbing the headlines. That fact, combined with some expected chilly weather conditions, have led to the O/U line being bet down significantly and I feel it's now an opportune time to take advantage of an overreaction and to play the Over. Remember that I played the Under Monday night w/ the Patriots as they won an ugly one over the Bills, 20-13. This will easily be the lowest O/U for any game this year involving New England, a team that comes in averaging 32.3 points per game.  Take the Over.

The Patriots' defense may be #1 in scoring, but they allow roughly 60 yards per game more than the Broncos. That has them at 14th in total defense, indicating they've been fortunate to give up as few points as they have. They also haven't faced very many good offenses throughout the year. They allow 18.7 yards per point, which is extremely fortunate.  Only Pittsburgh has been more "bend but don't break" league-wide at 19.4 yards per point allowed.  I've made the case previously that the Denver offense is likely to be more efficient w/ Brock Osweiler under center as opposed to Peyton Manning and I mean it as he's more likely to run the kind of attack HC Gary Kubiak wants. Remember that this Broncos' offense is loaded w/ weapons at the skill positions and gets WR Emmanuel Sanders back here.  They gained almost 400 yards in last week's win over the Bears.

New England's offense is rapidly losing playmakers, but there hasn't been a game all year that they haven't scored at least 20 points.  Last week marked the season-low as Buffalo was able to pressure Tom Brady, but will Denver be able to do the same w/o DeMarcus Ware?  I do expect the Broncos defense to have success in this game, but only to a degree.  Again, with this being such a low total for the Patriots, we don't even need either team to hit its season average in points per game. Note that five of the past six meetings between these two have gone Over and in five of those games the O/U line was greater than 50 points.  10* Over Patriots/Broncos

8* Over Vanderbilt/Tennessee (4:00 ET):  Obviously, the "big story" here is that Vandy has yet to go Over the total in a single game this year (0-10-1). In the last 12 seasons, there has not been a single FBS team not to go Over at least once in the regular season. The one push for the Commodores came against a FCS opponent, Austin Peay, which resulted in a 47-7 win. Other than that, they have not scored more than 21 points in any game this season. Last week saw them get shut out (25-0 by Texas A&M) for the second time in four games, but more crippling than the fact it was A&M's first shutout since '04 is that the loss cost the Commies any shot at bowl eligibility. Therefore, a defense that has kept them in so many games this year may not be at its best and that spells trouble against a Tennessee offense that can send this game Over the total by itself.  Take the Over.

Last week marked just the FOURTH time all season that the Vandy defense allowed more than 20 points.  That's really impressive, but what hasn't been impressive is the list of offenses they've faced this season.  The four best offenses they've faced (Georgia, Ole Miss, Houston and A&M) were the ones to all cross the 20-pt threshold and they averaged nearly 27 points per game.  Tennessee brings in an offense ranked 28th nationally in terms of efficiency, higher than all of those other teams, except Ole Miss (12th). The Vols average 32.6 points per game and I expect them to match that number here today. Note that two weeks ago, Vandy was fortunate to get away w/ allowing only 17 points to Kentucky as there were two goal-line stands. 

We will need probably 10+ points from Vandy here, which under any typical circumstance would be a "normal ask" for a team. But 10 PPG is how much they've average in road games this year and the win over Kentucky is the only time they've scored more than that average the L6 games! But while Tennessee has allowed just eight points total its last two games, that's not indicative of a defense that has allowed an average of 22.1 PPG in conference play. What we do know is that the Vols' offense has gone over 50 points three times this season. Also, let's not forget about special teams. UT has the best kick returner in the country, Evan Berry, who has scored three touchdowns and averages almost 40 yards per return. A score from him would be huge, though not necessarily "required" as I expect this one to sneak Over the total.  8* Over Vanderbilt/Tennessee

10* Over Bears/Packers (8:30 ET):  The last four times these long-standing rivals have met have all seen the combo of Green Bay & Over cash. All the way back in Week 1, the Packers struggled far more w/ the underdog Bears then you may remember.  It was a 31-23 final where they were outgained by Chicago (402-322) and actually trailed going into halftime. But that was in the Windy City and not Lambeau Field. So, despite division dogs of a TD or more often being a solid value, I'll resist the urge to take the points in this situation, especially because it's going to be an emotional night w/ Brett Favre's number being retired.  Typically, the Packers have been dominant here at home and considering what happened the last time they played here (outright loss to Detroit!), they should be in "full force" Thanksgiving night. Therefore, we turn to the total where both teams have been surprisingly rewarding Under bettors of late. But I look for that to change here. Take the Over.

Green Bay got back on track LW in Minnesota w/ a critical 30-13 victory that reclaimed first place in the NFC North. It was the offense's highest scoring output since a 38-28 win over Kansas City, which was all the way back in Wk 3, also a night game (Monday).  Yes, the receiving corps is depleted for Aaron Rodgers.  But that didn't stop him from throwing for 300+ yards in the two games prior to last week.  The Vikings defense that held him to 212 yds passing is a much stronger unit than the one he'll face here.  Chicago's defense has gradually improved under John Fox, but still allows 25.1 points per game. The fact remains this Packers offense has always been better at home, particularly in this primetime affairs. Incredibly, they have averaged 41 PPG their L5 night games here at Lambeau w/ Rodgers turning in a 19-0 TD-INT ratio! 

Chicago's offense, meanwhile, is better than you think.  Sure they were held to just 15 points last week, but they too faced a better defense (Denver) than what they'll see here. The week previous, on the road, saw the Bears explode for a season-high 37 points against a pretty good Rams defense. Had this team not had to turn to the now-released Jimmy Clausen early in the season (shutout in Seattle), the overall offensive numbers would look better. Matt Forte is coming back this week and he and Jeremy Langford are an excellent tandem out of the backfield.  Even better is that it's looking like WR Alshon Jeffery will be back as well. A depleted receiving corps really hurt Cutler LW vs. the Broncos.  I look for a high scoring game Thanksgiving night.  10* Over Bears/Packers

10* Over Ohio/Northern Illinois (7:30 ET):  In a College Football season where oddsmakers have not been shy about posting totals in the 60's and 70's (with good reason!), the O/U line here seems rather low, no?  We have seen this Ohio defense get routinely gashed throughout the season by the top teams in the MAC.  Heck, they even gave up 31 pts last week to a struggling Ball State team, not to mention over 400 total yards. That didn't matter though in terms of the final result as Frank Solich's Bobcats ended up rolling for 48 points and 607 total yards themselves! This week brings a far stiffer test though as they travel to DeKalb to face a Northern Illinois team trying to lock down yet another MAC Championship Game berth. I'm envisioning a shootout here as the Huskies can certainly move the ball, yet also haven't been shy about giving up points and yards themselves.  Take the Over.

Last week saw Northern Illinois win a big game over Western Michigan, 27-19 as three-point home chalk. That was the first Huskies' home game to stay Under the total all season (O/U = 59.5). What was strange though is that both teams seemingly moved the ball at will. NIU gained 447 total yards in the contest, but ended up w/ their 2nd lowest scoring output in a conference game all season (now 38.9 PPG & 489.9 YPG). What was strangest of all, however, is that the Huskies "got away" with allowing only 19 points despite the Broncos outgaining them w/ 492 total yards of offense.  They forced WMU to punt only twice in the entire game. There were six Broncos' drives of 11 or more plays; the "problem" was that two ended on downs, two resulted in only a field goal and on another they still had to punt. As mentioned above, this Ohio team can move the ball. They've averaged 532.3 YPG their last three contests and are averaging 432.6 YPG vs. MAC opponents.

The Over is 4-1 in Bobcats' road games this season as the team is allowing 34.0 PPG and 426.4 YPG in such affairs (6.1 yards per play!). That does not bode well here against a Northern Illinois offense that comes in averaging a whopping 46 PPG here in DeKalb, not to mention 572 yards per game! Since losing to Central Michigan, 29-19 on October 3rd, the Huskies have topped 40 points four times during a six-game win streak.  Ohio's defense was torched during a three-game losing streak to Western Michigan, Buffalo and Bowling Green, giving up 152 points.  If both teams hit their season averages in points, then this game will fly Over the total. What will keep Ohio in this contest is a Northern Illinois defense that is surprisingly giving up 447.4 YPG here at home. 10* Over Ohio/Northern Illinois

8* Under Bills/Patriots (8:25 ET):  The first matchup of the season between these two was quite the high-scoring affair as New England (as a pick 'em or underdog, depending on your line) went into Buffalo and prevailed 40-32. But that final score was somewhat misleading in the sense that the Pats led 37-13 heading into the fourth quarter. That loss dropped the Bills to 3-27 SU their L30 games vs. New England. They (Buffalo) were clearly overvalued heading into that Week 2 tilt and one could argue that they still are here, but rather than lay the points w/ an unbeaten team (risky!), I'm more interested in tonight's total. I don't think we'll see nearly the same amount of scoring as we did the first go around.  Take the Under.

Going w/ the Under is a little risky here in the sense that New England has scored at least 27 points in every game this season. They'd scored 30 or more six straight weeks before landing on exactly 27 each of the L2 games. However, remember that this is a banged up offense right now that's down several key weapons, most notably RB Dion Lewis (done for the year) and WR Julian Edelman (Brady's favorite target).  The offensive line is also not healthy. Last week's game vs. the Giants was fortunate to go Over the total as Tom Brady should have been intercepted on the final drive (dropped), which ultimately resulted in a GW FG.  The Bills defense, despite inferior numbers under Rex Ryan compared to last season, remains a formidable unit. They've allowed just 17 pts B2B weeks and have given up fewer than that three other times this season. 

New England is actually only 5-4 Over in all games this season and the key to the Under has been their defense. In three of the four games that stayed Under, they held their opponents to 10 points or less! Surprisingly, Belichick's defense is allowing only 18.8 points per game this season, fourth best in the entire league. While the Over is 7-2 the L9 meetings between these two, tonight's number is higher than any of the previous four. The Bills offense does not scare me at all; in fact they gained less than 300 total yds LW vs. the Jets and scored only one touchdown. I am expecting tonight to be one of their lowest scoring outputs of the entire year. 8* Under Bills/Patriots

10* Over Packers/Vikings (4:25 ET):  This is an honest-to-god, big-time showdown in the NFC North, a division you can no longer simply "concede" to Green Bay.  The Pack have lost three straight, their longest losing streak w/ Aaron Rodgers at the helm since his 1st year as a starter (2008).  Minnesota now finds itself in first place at 7-2, thanks to a five-game SU win streak, and they also have the distinction of being the league's best ATS team as well, at 8-1 (8-0 ATS L8!). They also are the league's top Under team (7-1-1, counting LW's game at Oakland as a 'push') and surprisingly not far behind them in that category is Green Bay, who has gone Under in six of its nine games. But all this talk of Unders has made this total much lower than it should be.  Take the Over.

Though you wouldn't know it by watching them recently, the Packers still have an explosive offense as long as Rodgers is at the helm. They average 24.3 PPG even after last week's 'dud' performance at home against Detroit (I was on the Lions!) where they gained much of their 372 total yards late in the game, after falling behind.  That's been the pattern the L2 wks, nevermind the disaster at Denver, but I just find it too hard to believe that this unit can play this poorly for any extended period of time. They are still averaging 5.7 yards per play for the season. It appears as if this O/U line will close as the lowest for any GB game so far this season. That's notable. The last two times a Green Bay O/U line closed below 45 pts, the Over went 2-0 & it hasn't happened since 2013. One of those two games was against the Vikings.

Honestly, if not for a leaky Packers run defense, I would consider taking them in this game. But because they are 24th in the league against the rush (116.2 YPG) while giving up 31 running plays of 10+ yards, it does not look like a favorable matchup w/ Adrian Peterson here.  The Vikings offense is coming off its second best game of the season, in terms of points (30) and they gained their most total yards in four weeks.  Peterson ran wild LW against the Raiders for 203 yards and is averaging 143.7 the L3 games. Yes, Minnesota's defense leads the league in scoring (17.1 PPG), but it's been a long time since they faced a QB that you would even consider Top 15 in the league, let alone in the top two like Rodgers is.  10* Over Packers/Vikings

10* Over Central Michigan/Kent State (8:00 ET):  Unders have become commonplace for both of these programs this season. Central Michigan has stayed Under the total in seven of its 10 games this year, including each of its last three. Kent State has been even more friendly to Under bettors recently (six straight Unders!) and their O/U mark is the same (3-7) for the season.  The recent low scores, on both sides, have led to a very low number this week, one that is in fact the lowest for either all season.  In the case of CMU, it is easily their lowest total of the season to date. While Kent State has been shut out in two of its last three games, I feel that the value here is on the Over. Look for this game to sneak past the total.

There have been only three instances all season where 40 or less total points were scored in a game involving Central Michigan.  Two of those came against Oklahoma State and Michigan State, obviously two of the very best teams in the entire country. Needless to say, Kent State does not have the kind of defense either of those two powers bring to the table and likely will not be holding CMU to 13 or fewer points.  The Chippewas' lowest scoring game of the year came on Halloween, a 14-6 win over Akron, an unusual game where both teams were held below 300 total yards. For the season, CMU is averaging nearly 400 yds of offense per game, a pretty solid number. In conference play, they've been held below that benchmark only two times. Defensively, last week the Chips surrendered almost 500 total yds to Toledo. 

Kent State's is the offense we will need to "show up to play" tonight.  As mentioned previously, the Golden Flashes have been shut out in two of their previous three contests.  Over the L5 games, incredibly, they have scored only 39 total points! They've scored 20 or more only twice versus FBS competition, which is a tad bit frightening, but tonight I'll call for their highest scoring game of the season in MAC play.  How can I make such a claim? Well, despite their poor overall numbers on offense, they should be scoring more. They average 20 yards per point, one of the worst marks in the entire nation (would have been 2nd worst in FBS last year), which is a signal that more points should be forthcoming.  The nationwide average is roughly 14 yards per point.  10* Over Central Michigan/Kent State

8* Over Toledo/Bowling Green (6:00 ET): I was pretty surprised to find that Toledo has gone Under in seven of its nine games this season. Granted, they have a defense which allows only 18.8 points per game and that was a major reason I went Under on their game vs. Northern Illinois two weeks ago (Rockets' only loss of the season!). But they do have an offense that averages nearly five touchdowns per game (34.9 PPG) and twice have scored more than 50 pts this season. Speaking of offense, Bowling Green comes in averaging a whopping 45.4 PPG this season (56.0 at home!) and is - by far - the most prolific opponent that Toledo will have faced all season. In fact, these are the two top ATS teams in the entire country, so w/ no advantage there, I'm instead taking a look at the total & I feel all the necessary ingredients are present for this game to go Over.

As I just alluded to, Bowling Green (who is unbeaten in conference play & has already clinched the MAC East) has the capability of sending a game Over the total by itself. The Falcons, #2 in the country (behind Baylor) in terms of offensive efficiency, are no strangers to high totals this season. They've gone Over two totals of 70+ and since a season-opening loss at Tennessee, there's been just two instances of the Falcons failing scoring 40 or more points. Both times came on the road. Their last time here at home, they lit Ohio up for 62 pts!  Over the L5 games, the team is averaging 54.4 PPG! While the Over is "just" 6-4 in all BGSU games this season, it is a perfect 4-0 in their home games. Let's also not discount a fairly leaky Falcons defense which permits 439 yards per game this season. They've been over that number each of the last two contests, however, been rather fortunate to allow just 51 total points.

Another thing that I was surprised to learn is that each of the last five meetings between these two rivals have stayed Under the total. But I'm not sure there was a time when both were so prolific offensively. We're talking two teams that combine to average more than 1,050 YPG!  Toledo's defense, which started the season by holding four of five opponents to 12 pts or less, has now allowed an average of 30.0 PPG its last three and so far they've really only faced one of the top offensive teams out of the MAC (N Illinois).  I anticipate both offenses to move the ball at will in this contest as each averages over six yards per play and that will lead to a ton of scoring. 8* Over Toledo/Bowling Green

10* Over Eagles/Cowboys (8:30 ET):  Back in Week 2, these teams played one of the worst games of the entire season. Though Dallas won 20-10, at Philadelphia, you'd have to consider them "the ultimate loser" given that was the game they lost Tony Romo to injury and they haven't won since.  Whether it's been Brandon Weeden or Matt Cassel under center for America's Team, the results have been the same the L5 weeks. They did cover last week, here at home vs. Seattle, but scored only 12 points and gained just over 200 total yards in an abysmal passing effort from Cassel. It was the second time in three weeks that the offense failed to score a touchdown. Philadelphia is a surprising 6-1 Under this season, but off a bye, and there's a ton of value here considering the O/U line for that first meeting was 53. Take the Over.

This will almost certainly close as the lowest O/U line for any Eagles game to date. So far, the majority of their games this season have seen 43 or more total points scored (all but three). The first matchup w/ Dallas set the low benchmark, but there's plenty of reason to believe the Philadelphia offense will perform far better here. For starters, they gained a pathetic seven yards rushing in Week 2. Over the L3 games, they have been better committed to the ground game and the result has been an average of 172.7 rushing yards per game.  Also, not many teams have more drops this year than the Eagles' 18 and the result of that has been a poor third down percentage that ranks near the bottom of the league. That statistic is both variable and fixable. This Dallas defense isn't very good as it's allowing 5.8 yards per play this season. Coming off the bye, we should see dramatic improvement from this Eagles offense compared to what we saw vs. Carolina (much better defense) and certainly from what we saw in the first meeting w/ Dallas.

The Eagles defense has actually been the strength of the team to this point in the season. But they're doing it w/ a lot of "smoke and mirrors," namely turnovers, which they've feasted off the L3 weeks w/ 10. But outside of two games, they've allowed 350+ yards every time out.  The Dallas offense does have Dez Bryant back now (huge plus) and of course has the best offensive line in the league. As bad as Cassel has looked so far, he has the pieces in place to move the ball here. There were four 10+ play drives LW vs. Seattle, three of them ending in the red zone. Had those resulted in touchdowns, not field goals, we would be perceiving this Cowboys' offense much differently right now. Four of the last five meetings in this NFC East rivalry have gone Under, but all had a O/U line north of 50 points, so we're "due" for an Over here. 10* Over Eagles/Cowboys

8* Over Rams/Vikings (1:00 ET): Similar to the Under play Thursday night on Browns-Bengals, we have a situation here where the two teams involved have combined to largely go "one way" when it comes to the total this season. Only in the case of St. Louis & Minnesota, that way is Under as they're a combined 11-3 Under this year w/ the Rams 5-2 and Vikings 6-1. Not surprisingly then, the O/U line for this matchup is the lowest on the entire Week 9 card. But despite past results, I'm seeing some solid value on the Over in this one as it will be the lowest total for either team so far this year. Both teams have offenses that can move the sticks via the ground game and while this certainly won't turn into the kind of shootout we saw last week in New Orleans, it doesn't have to w/ such a low number. Take the Over.

In the case of Minnesota, while they might be 6-1 Under (tied for top Under team in the league), a majority of their games would have landed Over this particular total. In fact, five of the last six games would have! There's been a real consistency w/ those five games seeing a total scoring range of 42 to 47 points.  Beware the Vikings' record also, as they have faced a very weak schedule to this point, arguably the easiest in the entire league.  Just consider that in the L3 games, they've faced Kansas City (1st game w/o Charles), Detroit & Chicago.  Advanced stats don't like their defense nearly as much as traditional stats might and now a unit allowing 4.4 yards per carry must go up against the sensational Todd Gurley (6.1 YPC!) and do so w/o the services of MLB Eric Kendricks (huge loss) and possibly LB Anthony Barr. That's a tall task.

The Rams too have benefited from a relatively weak schedule the past two games. Actually, "relatively" would be putting it mildly. They faced the Browns and 49ers, who might end up being the league's two worst teams by season's end.  Minnesota's offense might still be a "work in progress," but it has scored at least 20 points in all but two games this year and is now a lot better with the emergence of rookie WR Stefon Diggs (Bridgewater's favorite target). St. Louis does have the better defense of the two teams here, but it seems as if they "forget to pack it" when hitting the road as that group is allowing 380.7 YPG away from the Edward Jones Dome (6.1 yards per play) and 23.3 points per game.  8* Over Rams/Vikings

10* Under BYU/San Jose State (11:30 ET): Though I'll tell you a little a bit about it, go ahead and pretty much disregard everything from BYU's previous result, a 70-6 waste of time against FCS Wagner. Predictably, the Cougars rolled up over 700 yards of offense while allowing only 129.  That result looks impressive on the stat sheet, but is essentially meaningless in the grand scheme of things. What it has done for us, however, is inflate the total for this Friday night affair at "old friend" San Jose State.  You'll note that Brigham Young has gone Under in four of its last five games against FBS competition, many of them having O/U lines lower than the one we're working w/ here. SJSU has a really solid pass defense and I see this one staying Under the total. 

How good is San Jose State's pass defense? Well, they are holding opposing quarterbacks to just 5.8 yards per attempt, which is the second lowest average in all of FBS! Bet you didn't know that. Now, admittedly, I have a pending wager on the Spartans to finish Over their projected season win total (4.0) and all we need now is one more win.  They won their last time out, 31-21 over New Mexico, thanks in large part to a big day from RB Tyler Ervin, who went for 263 yards over land. As a whole, the offense rolled up nearly 500 total yards, but Ervin and company duplicating such a performance tonight is highly unlikely. I still have major concerns about the passing game, especially now that leading receiver Tyler Winston (35 catches, 368 yds) is out for the season w/ a knee injury. Note the game before beating New Mexico, SJSU was held to just seven points in a loss to San Diego State. In the four games in which it has been an underdog this year, San Jose State has averaged only 16.25 points per game.

But the Spartans' defense will keep them in this one. Playing on the road, against Auburn, this unit allowed only 342 total yards.  Yes, Auburn has its issues, but that's an impressive performance by SJSU.  This is BYU's first road game since getting waxed at Michigan and they haven't faced a good defense since. You'll recall that the Cougars were shut out by the Wolverines there and held to only 105 total yards.  At the same time, BYU's defense has been pretty good in its own right, save for the East Carolina game. They've allowed 24 pts or less five of the last seven games.  Points should be at a premium, all-around, in this late night affair.  10* Under BYU/San Jose State

8* Under Browns/Bengals (8:25 ET):  These two division rivals have combined to go 11-3 Over on the season, which is a surprise, especially on the Cleveland side of things. The Browns are actually the top Over team in the league right now (7-1), but that's somewhat of a byproduct of consistently low totals.  A defense that has allowed 24 or more points six straight games certainly hasn't helped matters either, but fortunately Cincinnati comes into Thursday night off both their lowest scoring output & fewest yards gained in any game this season. Both of last year's meetings between these two stayed Under w/ just 27 and 30 total pts scored (both games were blowouts) and that's the way I see this one going as well. Take the Under.

The last three Thursday night games (ATL-NO, SEA-SF, MIA-NE) all have stayed Under their respective totals, though in two of the cases we have an O/U line north of 50 points. Still, the short week may mean something here and often cases it leads to sloppy offensive play. The last two weeks we've seen losing teams held to single digits on TNF.  Expecting a ton of offense out of Cleveland here w/ Johnny Manziel likely starting (play stands regardless) would be wishful thinking, even though in his lone start this year, the team produced 28 points. But one of those touchdowns came from the special teams (punt return) and two Manziel TD passes accounted for all but 48 of his total passing yardage!

The Browns played likely their worst game since Week 1 last week as they could manage only 20 points, despite forcing four turnovers, against the Cardinals. Yes, I'm including the 24-6 loss to the Rams the week prior in there as the defense actually played relatively well in that game, holding St. Louis to just 308 total yards in the lone Under for Cleveland all season. Part of the reason we've seen all these Overs for them is a high number of non-offensive TD's in their games, or turnovers setting up short fields. It's a rate that HAS to start going down. Fortunately for the Browns, Cincinnati didn't do much offensively last week either (just 6 pts through three quarters) as QB Andy Dalton played - by far - his worst game of the season. Bad games against Cleveland have been surprisingly commonplace for Dalton throughout his career as three of the four times he's been held under 100 yds passing have come against the Browns! 8* Under Browns/Bengals

8* Under Northern Illinois/Toledo (8:00 ET):  This matchup typically determines the winner of the MAC West and more often than not it has been Northern Illinois winning and going on to Detroit to play for the Conference Championship.  In fact, the Huskies have beaten the Rockets five years in a row, including twice here at the Glass Bowl after losing 17 of their previous 18 visits. Last year, in DeKalb, was a three-point game (with Toledo covering as underdogs) which was the third time in the last four years the matchup has been decided by one score. In a drastic turn of events, Toledo (unbeaten both SU and ATS) is favored this year. The likelihood of the Rockets winning on their home turf is strong, but that perception also has me unwilling to lay the points. Therefore, I turn to the total instead.  Take the Under.

The last three meetings have all stayed Under the total with a tight range of 52 to 55 total points scored.  Although higher than those totals, I think that when most look at the O/U line for this matchup, it will appear to be low. After all, both are averaging right around 37 points per game.  Toledo has tallied an impressive 114 points the last two games while NIU has topped 45 pts in three straight.  However, all of those games came against the dregs of the MAC, teams that generally don't play much, if any, defense. Both played Eastern Michigan, who is 127th (out of 128) in total defense nationally.  The other three opponents - Miami, Ball State and UMass - all rank 116th or lower.  So what I'm saying here is don't put too much stock in the respective recent offensive performances. 

Toledo has an outstanding defense, one that ranks in the top 20 nationally in yards allowed as well as 24th in efficiency. They allow just 16.3 PPG, 14.2 here at home, and opened the year by staying Under in each of their first five contests.  They've allowed 12 pts or less four times, one of those coming against Arkansas on the road!  Don't put too much on the Rockets' defense for allowing a season-high 35 points to UMass two Saturdays ago as three of the Minutemen's four touchdown drives were set up by turnovers. In the second half, UT allowed just one TD and it came late. As for NIU, they've been held to less than 20 points in three of four road games. Granted, two were against Ohio State and Boston College, but the other was by a Central Michigan team that barely cracks the top 50 in efficiency. The Huskies' defense, however, travels well as it allows just 19.5 PPG w/ the Under going 3-1 in those four games!  8* Under Northern Illinois/Toledo

10* Under Cardinals/Browns (1:00 ET): While the woefully unprepared Johnny Manziel starting for Cleveland would have made this play all the more ideal, I'm on the Under regardless as these teams have shocked me w/ the number of times they've each gone Over this season.  But lately, things have been trending in the other direction.  Arizona had gone Over in each of their first five games before Unders came through against a pair of other AFC North teams, Pittsburgh & Baltimore.  Meanwhile, Cleveland had actually gone Over in each of its first six games before LW's Under vs. St. Louis (scored only six points). This will be the highest total for any Browns' game so far this season.  Take the Under.

This isn't exactly an ideal spot for the visiting Cardinals. Yes, they're clearly the better team on paper, but they'll be working on a short week, with a bye on deck, and the early start time likely does them no favors here.  It was an early start time where I first played the Under w/ the Cardinals as they traveled to Pittsburgh and lost 25-13 two weeks ago.  On Monday night, their defense seemingly had "taken care of business," holding the Ravens to just over 200 total yards before a blocked punt set up a late touchdown and then a final Baltimore drive went 67 yards in a failed attempt to tie the game. Cleveland's offense is averaging just 21 points per game, so I don't worry here about Arizona's defense.  Rather it is the offense, which could be w/o WR John Brown (questionable), that I worry about.

There is a unifying element w/ these two teams' string of Overs, that being a bevy of non-offensive touchdowns.  In two of the Cardinals' wins, they have scored multiple non-offensive touchdowns. Six Lions' turnovers set up a number of easy scores in that game. With the Browns, their game vs. Denver wouldn't have gone Over if not for a defensive score by both sides. Last week's 24-6 loss to the Rams would have been even lower scoring if not for an early fumble return. The Browns' defense actually did its job, allowing only 305 total yards. Here, their secondary is likely to be back at full strength. But the problem remains an offense that will be even more limited than usual here due to the shoulder injury to QB Josh McCown. His main weapon is TE Gary Barnidge, but he could struggle here, not just because of the McCown injury but also due to a Cardinals defense that's holding opposing tight ends to just 40.4 YPG.  10* Under Cardinals/Browns

10* Over Vanderbilt/Houston (7:00 ET):  At 6-0 Under this season, Vandy is one of the top teams for bettors who like to play games that way. The Commodores have yet to score 20 points against an FBS opponent this year (did beat Austin Peay 47-7), but arguably this week will be the first time they've had a "dance partner" w/ the capability of sending a game Over. The Commies did allow 31 and 27 points to Georgia & Ole Miss respectively, but those squads also boast defenses strong enough to severely limit what Vandy could do offensively. Here, Houston doesn't really have that distinction as the Cougars average 47.6 points per game offensively while also allowing 19.7.  That latter number has been severely aided by a bevy of weak opponents.  Take the Over.

For Houston, this figures to close as their lowest total of the season. All seven of the (unbeaten!) Cougars' games to this point have closed at 53 pts or higher w/ a number of them ending up over 70!  This is an offense that has topped 33 points in every game itself and three times has been above 50 points, including matching a season high LW in a 59-10 beat down of winless UCF. Houston averages nearly 600 total yds per contest.  Here at home, they are averaging 53.3 PPG, which would be enough to send this one Over by themselves, something they did LW vs. UCF.  1st year HC Tom Hermann (former OC at Ohio State) has been a difference maker for this team as has QB Greg Ward Jr, who is the only player at the FBS level to be currently averaging more than 200 yards & 90 yds rushing on a per game basis. 

Even against a stout Vandy defense, I fully expect UH to "get theirs."  They may not measure up to their season average, but 30+ points is certainly likely.  Therefore, the onus is left to the Vandy offense, whose numbers should see a drastic increase here due to not having to face an SEC defense. It should be noted that the last time the Commodores took on a non-SEC opponent, they managed to roll up over 400 total yards of offense, but due to three turnovers were held to just 17 points in a narrow win over Middle Tennessee. Their season average of 21.5 yards per point is abnormally high.  Over the last several weeks, Houston has faced a number of terrible teams (Texas St, Tulsa, SMU, Tulane, UCF), none of whom rank higher than 63rd in terms of offensive efficiency. 10* Over Vanderbilt/Houston

Note: High winds (up to 22 MPH) are expected in Ypsilanti this evening. This only strengthens the play!

8* Under Western Michigan/Eastern Michigan (7:30 ET):  Despite an offense that has failed to top 22 pts five of the last six weeks, Eastern Michigan continues to go Over the total at a high rate (7-1 Over this season) thanks to a defense that is beyond leaky (44.5 PPG allowed). The last five games, all losses, have seen the Eagles give up 44+ points every time out, so the fact that the O/U lines have consistently been high hasn't really even mattered. But for this Thursday night matchup w/ rival Western Michigan, we have the highest total to date & even w/ the WMU offense seemingly rounding into form and likely to take advantage of the poor EMU defense, I see this one staying Under the total. That's because the visitors' defense has given up just 27 points the L2 weeks and figures to again hold this Eagles' offense in check.

This one could very well play out the same way as last year's meeting, which was won by Western Michigan, 51-7 as 27-point favorites.  However, here in Ypsilanti, the Broncos have lost two straight and overall they'd lost three straight times to the Eagles prior to LY's big victory. Though their previous road game saw them go into Athens and destroy Ohio, 49-14, the Broncos' first two road games saw them total only 29 points. Granted, one of those was against Ohio State, but the other was vs. Georgia Southern.  This is also the highest total of the season for an WMU game, but considering the way they're defense has played the L2 games, the number appears to be inflated. Last week saw the Broncos hold Miami (OH) to just 276 total yards and 13 points. They forced three 3 and outs and allowed only a field goal after halftime.

While I concede that Eastern Michigan's defense is likely to be "torched" again this week, the number is high enough that we have plenty of "cushion."  A rout would likely lead to the favorite taking its foot "off the gas pedal" in the second half.  Note only 17 total pts were scored in Western Michigan's game last week. Also, one of their TD's was set up by a Miami fumble deep in their own territory. Meanwhile, the EMU defense does figure to improve somewhat after facing LSU, Toledo and Northern Illinois (all on the road) over the previous four games. It figures to be a lot of running the ball from WMU here, which will at least eat up the clock. Again, EMU has failed to top 22 pts in five of its last six games and last week saw them get shut out in the first half.  8* Under Western Michigan/Eastern Michigan

10* Over Vikings/Lions (1:00 ET):  All this talk of more offense in the league apparently has yet to reach Minnesota where the Vikings stand as the league's only 5-0 Under team. They are neither averaging (19.2) nor allowing (16.6) more than 20 points per game, which is a fairly remarkable achievement in the modern NFL.  Interestingly, one of their higher scoring outputs this season came back in Week 2 (26 pts) against a Lions team they'll face again this week. The Minnesota offense rolled up a season best 350 yards in that game, yet for a fourth straight time a Vikings-Lions game stayed Under the total. Not this time though.  Take the Over.

Detroit is coming off not just their first win of the season, but what was also - by far - their best offensive game of the season (546 total yards) in a 37-34 overtime win over the division rival Bears.  Over the previous three games, these Lions had faced some really tough defenses: Denver, Seattle and Arizona.  They didn't fare much better in Wk 2 against Minnesota (323 total yds), but the good news here is TE Eric Ebron is expected to be back on the field after missing the last two games. The Lions rushing attack had been dormant for the first five games, but went for 155 yards on 32 carries last week, which is hopefully a sign of things to come. Also of note is that offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi moved to the press box last week and that seemed to have a positive effect on the playcalling. 

Minnesota's offense seems to lack an explosive capability, but you have to figure that RB Adrian Peterson will improve upon last week's dismal showing when he carried the ball 26 times for only 60 yards, including a horrific first half when his 16 carries led to only 17 yards.  In Wk 2 vs. the Lions, however, he went for 134 yards on 29 carries and no player since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger has a higher average of rushing yards per game in division games than Peterson's 113.7.   The Vikings' passing game seems to be improving as second year QB Teddy Bridgewater threw for 140 yards in the first quarter LW vs. the Chiefs and rookie Stefon Diggs replacing the ineffective Charles Johnson as a starting receiver seems to have paid dividends. The bottom line here is that Minnesota is "due" for an Over. 10* Over Vikings/Lions

8* Under Memphis/Tulsa (8:00 ET): This is obviously a monster number, one that seems justified at first glance, but not so much when you dig deeper.  Sure, #18 Memphis comes in averaging 46.0 points per game, which is fourth best in the nation. But it was just three weeks ago exactly (on a Friday), I took them Under against an offensively inept foe, South Florida, and that game ended up being a 24-17 final. Here, we are catching the Tigers in a major letdown spot coming off perhaps the program's biggest win ever, last week at home against Ole Miss, and this game won't be at the Liberty Bowl either.  It will be in Tulsa, against a Golden Hurricane team that has gone Under three straight weeks. But that hasn't stopped the oddsmakers from hanging another high total for one of their games.  Take the Under.

When I last played the total Under for a Memphis game, they were coming off a huge 53-46 victory the previous week against Cincinnati, a contest that saw their defense allow a shocking 755 total yards of offense.  They were much stingier the following week against USF, allowing just 377.  Last week, they were back to allowing 480, but the vast majority of it came through the air and I was impressed how the Tigers' defense held Ole Miss to just 40 yards rushing on 24 carries.  The Tulsa offense they'll face here was shut out through three quarters a week ago at East Carolina and gained over half of its total yardage in three late, garbage time drives.  On a positive note, the Golden Hurricane defense stepped up in allowing just 382 yards total and one of the ECU touchdowns came on a 100-yard INT return.

Tulsa has gone Under in four of its last five games, all of which have had high totals. The three games where the O/U line closed at 71 pts or higher, the game stayed Under the total. Only twice has there been a time when there were more than 62 total points scored in a Tulsa game. Last year, playing at Memphis, they were held to 13 points and just 138 total yards until the final drive when the offense scored just its second (and final) TD for the game.  No Memphis game last year saw this many total points scored. Early in the season, it seemed as if the oddsmakers couldn't make these totals high enough, but w/ the exception of Baylor we've begun to see a reversal of that trend.  8* Under Memphis/Tulsa

8* Under Broncos/Browns (1:00 ET):  Even with some key defensive personnel potentially out on both sides here, I think points will be at a premium.  In case you haven't been paying close attention, Denver's identity has completely flipped w/ the defense now doing the "heavy lifting" and Peyton Manning and the offense are simply "along for the ride."  I believe this Denver defense to be the best in the league right now and the stats bear that out as they are allowing the fewest yards per game (278.0) and have also forced a league-high 14 turnovers.  Most importantly, they come in allowing an average of just 15.8 points per game. A Cleveland team which is just one of two to start 5-0 Over is due for a low-scoring game. Take the Under.

Few saw Browns QB Josh McCown coming.  I know I didn't.  Last week, he threw for a franchise record 457 yards in an overtime win over the Ravens.  Needless to say, I am calling for a decrease in production, across the board, from Cleveland this week.  It should start early as the Broncos have yet to allow a single first quarter point this season.  While the potential absence of DeMarcus Ware looms large, take note that the Broncos league-leading 22 sacks have come from 11 different players. So I believe the will still be able to generate pressure on McCown and when they do, look for the Cleveland QB to struggle as opposing QB's have a 52.5 passer rating against the Broncos when they bring pressure, third lowest in the league. This Denver defense is also allowing just 3.46 yards per play on first down (tops in the league by 0.5 YPP!) and they are #1 on third down as well.

Meanwhile, Manning and the Broncos' offense continues to struggle mightily.  They didn't score a single touchdown last week (2nd time this year!) and were held under 300 total yards.  The good news is that Cleveland's secondary is banged up and down two key starters (Joe Haden, Tashaun Gibson). But is Manning even able to take advantage any longer?  What I anticipate is that Denver will try to get its run game going. The problem there is they are 30th in the league in yards per game (71.6) and this game is likely determined how they fare against the league's 31st ranked rush defense.  Don't discount that this is an early start time for Denver as well. 8* Under Broncos/Browns

10* Under Cardinals/Steelers (1:00 ET):  Arizona, along w/ Cleveland (surprise!), is one of two teams to open the season by going Over in each of its first five games.  They certainly have feasted on some cupcake opponents, though. Wins over New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco and Detroit (collective 5-16 SU) have come by an average margin of 25.5 points per game w/ the team topping 40 points three times.  Week 6 brings a much tougher test in my opinion, in the form of Pittsburgh, who is 4-1 Under to this point. Since losing to New England in the season opener, the Steelers have held every opponent to 23 pts or less and remember the Cards were held to 22 in their lone loss (at home to St. Louis). Take the Under. 

Now, how the Steelers were able to pull off their win Monday night is a head-scratcher to me. Under the direction of Mike Vick, this offense has really struggled.  They've averaged just 162.3 passing yards per game with Vick and were downright anemic for 3.5 quarters last week vs. the Chargers.  Their 349 total yards are somewhat misleading when you consider that 152 of them came on the final two drives, 72 on one play, a long TD pass to Marcus Wheaton on a busted coverage. They had just three points at halftime and 10 after three quarters. The week previous, they gained just 253 total yards against a Baltimore defense that has been routinely torched this season and their lone second half score was basically set up by a turnover. Excluding a kneeldown, Pittsburgh's offense had seven drives of four plays or fewer. Five times they went three and out while gaining three yards or less! Vick finished the game w/ only 124 yards passing on a paltry 4.8 yards per attempt.  So, I don't think the Arizona defense will have a very "tough day at the office" here.

Though Arizona scored 42 points last week, they gained only 345 total yards and attempted just 18 passes! How does that happen, you ask? Well, how about SIX Lions' turnovers. The offense actually opened w/ a pair of three and outs last week. Remember that their previous 40+ point effort (against the 49ers) was also greatly aided by turnovers, namely two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. This many non-offensive scores cannot be sustained.  I should also mention how the loss of C Pouncey for the Steelers is huge. 10* Under Cardinals/Steelers

10* Under Bears/Chiefs (1:00 ET):  This is a matchup of the league's two worst defenses, in terms of points per game allowed, but I'm going w/ the Under anyway. For Chicago, the defense was expected to be bad. In Kansas City, it's a major surprise. Their stop unit was one of the best in the league a year ago, holding 11 of 16 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Fast forward to this year and they've now allowed 30+ points in three consecutive games. They are now 4-0 Over this season.  But let's look at those last three opponents, shall we?  They were Denver, Green Bay (in Lambeau) and a red-hot Cincinnati club. All of a sudden, the defensive "woes" don't look so bad. At the same time, neither offense here impresses me that much.  Take the Under.

Last week, I took a winless Bears team and they rewarded my faith in them w/ an outright 22-20 win over the Oakland Raiders, as a home dog. They're not getting much of a chance here, even though QB Jay Cutler is back, replacing the horrible Jimmy Clausen. With Cutler under center, the team has been far more competitive, however all they could manage last week in the second half was a pair of field goals. A majority of Cutler's passes traveled five or less yards downfield. But he did benefit from a big day from Martellus Bennett, the tight end, a position the Raiders have really struggled against in 2015. Cutler still may be w/o WR's Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal (questionable) here. 

Additionally, the Chiefs' one true strength defensively plays well for them in this matchup. That strength is rushing the passer and Chicago's offensive line has been horrible for some time. On the other side of ball, though, Kansas City isn't exactly adept at throwing the ball downfield.  QB Alex Smith remains far too conservative for my liking. Furthermore, the offense, despite 461 total yds last week, continuously bogged down in the red zone, which resulted in SEVEN field goals (not three touchdowns) for 21 points.  Actually, four of those field goals were 40 yards or longer, so it was slightly before the red zone that they grinded to halt, more often than not. Kansas City's own offensive line has issues, having allowed a league-high 19 sacks.  10* Under Bears/Chiefs

10* Over Northwestern/Michigan (3:30 ET):  This play goes against every bit of conventional wisdom that's out there as these two defenses rank #1 and #2 in scoring in the entire country and last year's game, won by Michigan, was a 10-9 final and scoreless at the half. Combined, the two teams are allowing just 14.6 points per game and they are also 1-2 on third down defense and both in the top six in yards per play.  Michigan is off B2B shutouts and has allowed just 14 points - TOTAL - its last four games. Northwestern is also off a shutout victory, 27-0 over Minnesota. But this is probably the lowest total we'll see all season in College Football, so we have to take a chance, especially w/ both teams being 5-0 Under so far. Take the Over.

Incredibly, Michigan has allowed fewer than 140 total yards in three of its last four games. The last two weeks, here at home vs. BYU and at Maryland, have seen them allow a total of just 105 each game!  This is clearly a pace that cannot be maintained, even if the Northwestern offense is having its own struggles this year.  That being said, the Wildcats did roll up 546 total yards against Ball State two weeks ago.  Michigan suffered a major loss last week when senior DE Mario Ojemudia went down to a season-ending ACL tear. Ojemudia was second on the team in tackles for loss (6) and had two sacks in last year's win over N'western.  The key here is Northwestern's Big 10 leading rushing attack (248.8 yards per game) going against the staunchest run defense in the conference. While the Wolverines may limit them on the ground, it will be only to a degree and this is certainly the best offense they will have faced since Utah in the season opener.

The same holds true for the Northwestern defense; Michigan is likely the best offense they will have faced all year. QB Jake Rudock, who does need to learn to protect the ball better, is 2-0 in his college career against the Wildcats.  That's from his days at Iowa and he's thrown over 400 yards in the two wins.  The Wolverines are also likely getting back RB De'Veon Smith, who last year gashed the N'western defense for 121 yards on just 18 carries. Three Michigan games (first three) have seen at least 35 total pts scored while N'western has had two games of least 41 total pts. 10* Over Northwestern/Michigan

Note: Matt Hasselbeck has been announced as the Colts' starter. The play still stands.

10* Over Colts/Texans (8:25 ET): Obviously, we're dealing w/ the "unknown" here when it comes to the Colts' QB situation, but regardless I like this one to finish Over the total. Indianapolis is facing a Houston defense that just gave up 48 points last week in an ugly loss in Atlanta.  While the Texans' offense has yet to score more than 21 points in a game this season (they have their own QB issues), I see them setting a new season-high here against a Colts' defense that up until last week hadn't been playing very well at all. Remember that two weeks ago, Indy gave up 33 points in a wild road win over Tennessee. The Under may be 7-2 the last nine meetings between these two, but this is a lower number than either of LY's two matchups. Take the Over.

It's only Week 5 and already Texans HC Bill O'Brien has been flip-flopping quarterbacks.  Brian Hoyer came into the year as the anointed starter, but that didn't last long as he was pulled in favor of Ryan Mallett in the very first game! Hoyer got called back into action last week when the team was way down to the Falcons. But it will be Mallett getting the starting nod here and that's probably for the best.  Arian Foster quietly made his return to the field last week and he needs more touches here as in eight career games vs. the Colts, he's averaging 120 YPG on 6.0 yards per carry and has eight touchdowns. Because they fell behind so quickly at Atlanta, the Texans really couldn't establish Foster. The previous week, without Foster, they ran for 186 yards in their only win this season.

Obviously, we want Andrew Luck on the field here for the Colts.  But if veteran backup Matt Hasselbeck is called into duty for a second straight week, then that's fine too.  Hasselbeck completed 30 of 47 pass attempts last week.  While that game finished w/ a final score of just 16-13 (w/ OT), the Colts' third Under of the season, their defense actually gave up over 400 yards.  Houston has just four wins all-time against Indianapolis (in 26 games) and a big reason for that is the Colts have scored at least 23 points in 20 of those contests. They'd scored at least 25 in four straight before a 17-10 win at the end of last season. I expect a high scoring game. 10* Over Colts/Texans

8* Under Texas Tech/Baylor (3:30 ET):  This total has been the talk of College Football this past week. While the two teams certainly are capable of sending this one Over, I think that the expectation has created some significant value on the Under. The previous high for a College Football total was set back in 2012 when Baylor took on a high-flying Oklahoma State outfit. The number there was 88 and the final score only 43-31 (in favor of the Pokes).  Of the 13 games in NCAAF history where the total was 80+, the two teams here have combined to be involved in eight of them. The last time Baylor saw an 80-point total, they again lost (last year at West Virginia) w/ the game staying Under. Texas Tech did go Over an 83.5-pt total last week, in a wild 55-52 loss to TCU. But I don't think this game will be as close and the effect there will be less scoring late. Take the Under.

Even though they lead the nation w/ 64 points per game, a number which is due to come down, Baylor would have seen two of their three games this year stay Under this total.  They just hung 70 on Rice last week and rolled up over 800 yards of total offense!  But they allowed only 17.  I think that the Bears' defense is going to be key in this matchup. It's a much better stop unit that what the Red Raiders faced last week against TCU, who is already down an incredible eight starters on that side of the ball! Granted, it's against less than stellar competition, but Baylor is allowing just 317 yards per game. The really good sign, however, is that they've held all three opponents to well below their respective season averages. 

I think you also have to question what Texas Tech "has left" after losing such a heartbreaker last week at home. The Baylor offense will almost certainly "get theirs," but I can't see the Red Raiders trading points w/ them as they did LW vs. TCU.  Last year, in Lubbock, these two combined for 94 points in a wild, back and forth affair, similar to Texas Tech's game last week. Because I don't anticipate this game being nearly as close, I look for less scoring at the end of the game. Though I readily admit that the teams involved are capable, too many things have to "break right" for the Over to hit here.  8* Under Texas Tech/Baylor

10* Over Temple/Charlotte (7:00 ET): The one spot in the "New Year's Six" bowl games that goes to a non-Power 5 conference school could very well be going the way of Temple, if all breaks right.  The Owls are currently 3-0 SU and will only be a dog in two, maybe three, of their remaining games. This is certainly not one of those times as they travel to Charlotte to play a team in its first year at the FBS level. The 49ers are certainly not worth a play at this juncture, but then neither is Temple playing on the road, in this price range. Therefore, let's turn to the total, which is interestingly lower than almost all of these two teams' previous games.  Take the Over.

The one thing that people are probably familiar w/ as it pertains to Temple is them sacking Penn St QB Christian Hackenberg a total of 10 times in the season opener. However, the defensive numbers since that game, a 27-10 upset as six-point underdogs, leave a lot to be desired. The Owls have allowed an alarming 800+ yards passing in road wins over Cincinnati and UMass. They allowed 557 total yards vs. Cincinnati and 438 to UMass.  Charlotte probably isn't capable of matching that kind of offensive production, but the 49ers should do better than the 21 total pts they've scored the last two games combined, presuming they can simply "get out of their own way."  A stat that I had to triple check (because I couldn't believe it) is that Charlotte has turned the ball over seven times in EACH of its L2 games!

The Temple offense has quietly averaged 28.7 PPG and I expect them to score a season-high Friday.  Two weeks ago, this Charlotte defense allowed 73 points and over 700 total yards to Middle Tennessee. How Florida Atlantic last week managed only one offensive TD against them, despite the seven turnovers, is beyond me. But what I do know is that Temple QB PJ Walker is playing very well right now. He threw for a career-high 391 yards against UMass, which showed me that the Owls can win in multiple ways. In the first two games, it was the rushing attack leading the way w/ 364 yards. All three Charlotte totals this year have been 65 pts or higher while Temple's last two were both 55.5, so there is a lot of value here.  10* Over Temple/Charlotte