20*

Miami Heat -4

20*

Memphis Grizzlies -4

20*

Toronto Raptors -115

30*

Chicago Bulls vs. Charlotte Hornets OVER 194

20*

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 195

20*

Cleveland Cavaliers -13

This one is pretty basic. As long as the Cavaliers don't simply take the night off, they win this one in total blowout fashion. I don't expect them to since they had the weekend of and the play the Knicks next, so no lookahead spot. Philadelphia has absolutely no offense and turnovers the ball over a ton. The trees down low should make it nearly impossible for the young 76ers to score anything in the paint. The 76ers got destroyed by Boston and Utah. There's no reason why Cleveland shouldn't dismantle this team. I do like this correlated with the under since I expect this to be a blowout, the 4th quarter should be just bench players taking bad shots and taking up the entire shot clock to finish out the game.

30*

Orlando Magic +8.5

30*

Utah Jazz vs. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 186.5

30* ESPN SHOWCASE

Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5

Every one is going to want to line up at the window and bet the Lakers here. Kobe is back and they have their young rookies to bring in the hype for L.A. They also brought in Roy Hibbert and Lou Will in the off-season. We now have 4 players on this team that are selfish scorers. Kobe, Lou, Swaggy P, and Russell all want the ball and shoot every time down the floor. That's not a recipe for success. It's going to take some time for this team to gel, if ever, in all honesty.

I like Minnesota to get up for this game, especially given the recent passing of Flip Saunders. This should give a big boost for the T'Wolves and they should give an inspired effort here. 

-BONUS 50* NBA SEASON WIN TOTAL

Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 29.5 wins

30*

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics UNDER 198

50* NBA TOTAL MAX BET

Washington Wizards vs. Orlando Magic OVER 204.5

It's early in the season so I don't have a bunch of trends to throw out at you for this one but we know that both of these squads have amazing young talent and solid three point shooters. The Wizards, especially with Wall on the floor, can score in seconds with his incredible speed.

The key here is new Magic coach, Scott Skiles. He is going to want to run, run, and run some more. This game could easily look like a Oklahoma City/Houston game with the speed of the back court and the amount of threes being taken. The thing about those games is that they are usually lined in the 214 area. We get this game 10 points less than that. I expect this game to be played back and forth with a ton of transition buckets. As long as one of these teams don't go ice cold from the floor, this goes over with ease.

40* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Chicago Bulls UNDER 198.5

I'll start by saying this...All 3 games went under last year on opening night in the NBA. This is actually very common in the Association. Team's come out rusty and they play with some nerves. This is even more the case with this particular game tonight.

These are two defensive teams and this a rematch of last year's playoff series, so this game should have a lot of defensive intensity with the revenge angle for the Bulls. Both teams are big inside, so it's hard to get easy buckets in the paint. Now, both teams will be out certain players or they will not be 100%. Kyrie is out, Love hasn't played in forever, and LeBron took most of the pre-season off. For the Bulls, we know Derrik Rose is playing with double vision, so that's going to kill offensive production. The Bulls have shown through out that they can go ice cold from the floor at times and, to even better our case for the under, can get very physical. 

50* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Golden State Warriors -1

50* NBA PLAYOFFS TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors UNDER 203.5

Most people are going to look at these two teams and see the Splash Brothers and King James and think a ton of points. But what has gotten these clubs this far, is their defense. Both teams have been outstanding on the defensive end and really pride themselves in that aspect. 

What makes this a great play is the time off between the Conference Finals and the NBA Finals. Cleveland will have 8 days off and Golden State will have 7. Breaks like this can really throw off offensive rhythm and rust is definitely a factor. With the jitters of the Finals and the fact that Golden State doesn't have a single player on their team with Finals experience, I can definitely see a low scoring 1st quarter/half.

As for the trends, Cleveland has gone under the total in 4 straight road games and Golden State has gone under in 8 straight home games. The Warriors are also 4-0 to the under when playing on 3 or more days rest and are 8-1-1 to the under after scoring 100+ their previous contest.

50* NBA MAX BET

Atlanta Hawks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 193.5

I'm not going to go all crazy with stats and trends on why I think this game is going to go over. The fact remains that the only time Atlanta had success in this series was when they pushed the pace and shot a ton of 3 balls. Cleveland will gladly play that type of game as well as they love shooting from beyond the arc. In Game 3, both teams shot close to 70 three pointers...66 to be exact!

LeBron James is close to impossible to stop. He either drives to the hoop for an easy basket or dishes it out, while driving, for a wide open 3. If they get into this type of game with pace and have success shooting, this game goes over with ease. I will leave you with one trend here as the over has cashed in 4 straight meetings between these two teams at the Q (Quicken Loans Arena.)

30*

Atlanta Hawks +9.5

40* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Golden State Warriors -10

There is a reason the odds-makers made the Warriors this big of a favorite. They are better in every facet of the game. It's as simple as the way each team plays. Golden State plays fundamentally sound, solid defense, a deeper bench, has the best shooter(s) in the game, and can drop treys like nobody's business.

Houston is the known street ball team. They are constantly running isolations and there are times where you will see players simply with their hands on their hips (Harden usually) out of the play, if they know the ball isn't coming to them. Golden State will see this and will eat you alive. Also, the Rockets CANNOT shoot free throws either. That will destroy you this late in the playoffs. 

Most people are going to see this line and say "I get the #2 seed getting double digits after 3 straight wins?" Don't get caught in the trap. Rockets are in for a major letdown. In my opinion, Memphis was a better team, definitely the better defensive team, than the Rockets, and the Warriors grinded them down and absolutely punished them late in the series. As long as Curry and Thompson don't have miserable shooting nights, Golden State runs away with this one in the 2nd half.

50* One & Only NBA GAME OF THE YEAR

Houston Rockets +2

For those of you who were on my NHL GAME OF THE YEAR with the Rangers...Man, is this a spitting image of a series or what? Both the Capitals and the Clippers were up 3-1 and now have to play on the road in Game 7. Both had the series in the bag (Capitals had a 1-0 lead with 100 seconds left and lost in OT and the Clippers had a 19 point lead with a couple minutes left in the 3rd and lost badly. Both were in series clinching games. Well, we all know how it ended for the Capitals. I expect a very similar result for the Clippers. What makes this even more similar, both teams are the worst in history blowing 3-1 series leads. If you have watched ESPN at all lately, you will know that more than 80% of the teams in the NBA playing at home for Game 7, win. 

I was shocked to see the Rockets as a 2 point underdog. I thought the odds makers would make the Rockets a short favorite or even a pick 'em. I don't see how the Clippers are going to be mentally stable for this game. The NBA is a game of runs. If and when the Rockets go on a run and/or hit a few threes in a row, I can see the Clippers really falling apart. "We had the series won" or "How did we blow this" is going to enter the player's heads and that is when the Rockets are going to start to pull away. 

The only negatives I can say for this game is that...this is the Rockets. This team is so sporadic it's frustrating. However, this is Game 7, on your home floor, after an epic comeback. HOW COULD YOU NOT BE FOCUSED! The other is Matt Barnes. This may sound a bit superstitious but whenever I make bets involving the Clippers...Matt Barnes is the X-Factor. When I fade the Clippers, he goes 4-7 from 3 point land. If I bet the Clippers, he goes 1-9 from 3. Let's hope the terrible Matt Barnes shows up Sunday. All jokes aside, the pressure got to the Clippers. They were one game away, really one quarter away, from their first Conference Finals in franchise history, and they blew it.  

20*

Golden State Warriors -5

Decided to pull the trigger on this one. Also have a small play on the Wizards ML 1st HALF. If you have the outs...a play on the Atlanta Hawks ML 4th quarter is a solid play as well. Washington should come out strong tonight at home and they have done well early on in the series. Where they have trouble, and it's always been this way for the Wizards, they struggle mightily in the 4th quarter and they always blow their lead.

ML (moneyline)

30*

Chicago Bulls -2

50* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors OVER 195

Consider playing part of this wager on the OVER 98 1st HALF

We said in our last play in this series that if this game stayed under the total yet again, we would have a big play on the over in Game 5. Well, it worked out for us and we're going big. This series has yet to see an over. There has been 4 straight unders but now they're going back to Oracle, where Golden State shoots the rock much better. A big reason for this over is that Tony Allen is not 100% and Chef Curry is starting to get his shot back. I don't see the same level of defense as there has been in the previous games. Golden State knows that the turnovers have been killing them and I expect them to clean those up coming back home. Add in the fact that if the threes start falling with this ruckus crowd, they'll keep shooting them all night, even if they are up by 40. I expect Golden State to try to push this game to a frantic pace as they know they need to get to 100 to win this game.

20*

Washington Wizards vs. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 200

40* NBA VEGAS INSIDER 

Cleveland Cavaliers -5

Cavaliers know they have to win this game. They cannot go down 2-3 going back to Chicago. I know it sounds easier said than done, but they also want to protect their coach from his double debacle last game. This is also a nice public fade as more than 60% of the bets are on the Bulls. Also saw a great stat with Joey Crawford, tonight's referee, and Lebron James. The King is 25-3 in games refed by Joey Crawford. Like our chances to get favorable calls tonight.

50* NBA MAX BET

Memphis Grizzlies +5

Looks like the Warriors have met their match. This Memphis defense is for real and it has frustrated the Splash brothers and it has made them look dazed on the floor at times. Again, just like last game when we cashed with the Grizzlies, everyone is going to be on the Warriors here thinking they'll bounce back and there is no way they go down 1-3. I think the Grizzles are going to surprise a lot of folks here tonight. I'm not going to go as far as calling for the outright upset, but it would not surprise me one bit. Getting 5+ points is a gift, especially in the Grindhouse where the Grizzlies are just so tough. This should be a close game throughout and I'll take the generous points all day with the home team.

Side note: Was taking a hard look at the OVER here as the first 3 games have gone UNDER the total. Love taking the over in the playoffs when the first 3 games go under as the oddsmakers typically over adjust the line but they didn't for this game 4 as it has stayed put at 196. Maybe worth a small bet here. If this game does go under, we will have a play on the over in game 5.

50* NBA MAX BET

Cleveland Cavaliers -119

I refuse to over think this one. I know this is going to be a very public play but how can you go against LeBron when trailing in a series? He plays like a man possessed and completely takes over the ball game. When he becomes to unselfish, that's when they struggle. This should be a lot like Game 2. This is basically the season for Cleveland. If you go down 3-1 in the NBA...goodnight.  The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS their last 4 following a loss. Look for them to make it 5 straight wins tonight as they even the series and head back to Cleveland for a huge Game 5. This series has 7 games written all over it.

50* NBA MAX BET

Memphis Grizzlies +4

EVERYONE is going to be on the Golden State Warriors here. "No way they lose two in a row, they always bounce back!" It's that kind of thinking that can get you in trouble in sports. Memphis is the real deal. Having Conley back gives this team a chance. Without him, they probably get swept, or maybe the Grizz get one as their home-court advantage is awesome. The Grindhouse is going to be electric. I don't have any fancy reasonings/trends for this one. This is just a great public fade and I just think this Memphis defense and this atmosphere is going to surprise a lot of folks tonight.

50* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Los Angeles Clippers -4

With or without Chris Paul, the Clippers should take care of business tonight. The Rockets showed me a lot, or lack thereof, in Game 1. This team just doesn't have the Champion's will. They did win Game 2, I'll give them that, but that was their season right there. They lose that game, they might as well forfeit. They should have a bit of a let down here. I mean they got killed Game 1, in a PERFECT SPOT to win, and barely won Game 2 and this was WITHOUT the Clippers best player. I don't see how this team has a shot coming into the Staples Center.

40* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Cleveland Cavliers -5.5

Included is my favorite prop play for tonight,

We're going to play LeBron James OVER 1.5 three point makes. We all know that LeBron plays like a man possessed after a loss in the post-season. His line currently at Bookmaker is 29.5 (-130) points. I feel we have better value on the 3 pointers. LeBron went 0-3 from beyond the arc last game. You know he's going to want to improve on that. In the 3 games prior, he attempted 7, 5,and 5. He will take his fair share of 3 pointers. I think we have a great shot here as LeBron should take over this ball game tonight and make at least 2 for us.

30*

Memphis Grizzlies +11

20* Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors OVER 99 1st HALF

Simply playing this game over the first half because these Warriors shut you down completely in the 2nd half, especially in the 3rd quarter. Recommend playing this all they way up to 100.

50* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR

Houston Rockets -6

This is as bad of a spot there is for the LA Clippers tonight. They come off, quite possibly, the biggest win in franchise history after defeating the Champion, San Antonio Spurs, in Game 7 on their home floor by hitting a crazy last second shot. You can tell how much this meant to them as Chris Paul was in tears after the buzzer went off. They now have 1 day off to travel all the way down to Houston to take on the Rockets. To make matters worse, it's obvious Chris Paul is not 100%. He left Game 7 but did return and we all know what happened. This team has got to be drained and should suffer one serious let down.

Houston is well rested and should take advantage of this opportunity. They better or they have no shot of winning this series. This is as good of a edge you can get in the Post-season. Almost all the key trends for this game favor the Rockets and fade the Clippers. Los Angeles is just 1-7 ATS following a win and 1-4 their last 5 after scoring 100+ points. Houston is 21-7 ATS on their home floor and they have covered 6 of their last 7 facing a team with a winning record. As is the case with most Rockets games, if they are nailing their three's (since they shoot some many of them), they cruise to a double digit victory tonight. I expect Houston to push this game to a furious pace and take a 1-0 series lead tonight.

40* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Atlanta Hawks -4

More than half the bets are on the Brooklyn Nets and yet the line is climbing. It's usually a great bet, in the correct circumstances, backing the favorite when the public likes the dog. If the Atlanta Hawks can give a strong 4th quarter effort, they win this one going away. I know that sounds obvious, but they have played great through the first three quarters then fall apart in the 4th. I expect them to have a great game plan by the coach of the year and win this series tonight knowing they really need the rest for the next round.

20*

Los Angeles Clippers +6

Personally going to play this on a teaser with the Milwaukee Bucks. 6 point tease Bucks +10 & Clippers +12. 

Included is my favorite play for the NBA tonight and it is a prop selection.

DeAndre Jordan OVER 11.5 points (-115) sportsbook.ag

I usually don't play that many prop bets but there are a couple very strong ones I like to use. This DeAndre Jordan prop is one of them. I played this prop religiously last year when odds-makers would post this at 9.5 and we made a killing. I do still like this at 11.5, especially since they are playing the Spurs. 

Most people I think would be scared to play this as everyone knows how pathetic he is shooting from the charity stripe. However, he will get plenty of opportunities from the line as Pop will put the, as Charles Barkley likes to call it, " Hack-a-dummy" into effect. On a bad day, Jordan is good for at least 3-4 alley oop dunks a game. Right there is 6-8 points. Now, I expect DeAndre to, at minimum, attempt 10-12 free throws tonight. As long as he hits his dismal 40%, we have 12 points right there. Just last game he attempted 16 and made 7. So if we get a repeat performance of that, all we need is 3 easy putback or alley oop dunks and we'll have ourselves a winner here.

50* NBA MAX BET

San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 205

This is a HUGE game for both teams. Sorry for stating the obvious but this is a big reason for the play. This should have the intensity of a Game 7 and it all starts with the defense. Both teams got over the century mark last game so I believe both teams will have a strong emphasis on defense. We all know Pop is the best coach making adjustments and he'll come up with a great defensive game plan after the miserable defensive performance last game. The Spurs are 7-3 to the under when allowing 100+ points the previous game.

As for the Clippers, they are trending to the under in almost every trend category. The have gone under the total in 5 of their last 6 home games and 7 of the last 10 games overall have gone under. A big key stat for this game is that L.A. is 6-2 to the under when scoring 100+ the previous game and 11-5 to the under after allowing 100+ points. Another positive for us under bettors is that Barnes and Griffin are nursing injuries so this should effect their offensive performances.

This series has shown that both teams can really step it up defensively when they want to. For the most part, this has been a lower scoring series, especially at the Staples Center, as one of the games went over due to overtime. Expect a lower scoring, defensive struggle tonight as they magnitude of this game could effect the offensive side of the ball drastically.

40* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Portland Trailblazers -3

20*

Atlanta Hawks -185

I expect for this game to go over, we need Atlanta to have a great game. Brooklyn seems like a cool pick but this is still a 60 win Atlanta team and the Nets are not a good team. Atlanta in the first 3 quarters have the first 2 games played great and they were killing the Nets. They feel asleep in the fourth and let them back in to make it look closer than it really was. Atlanta should wake up here and take care of business. 

If this is too much juice for you to lay, consider a money-line parlay with Chicago or even Houston tomorrow. 

40* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Atlanta Hawks vs. Brooklyn Nets OVER 195.5

This play is very similar to our last total of the week. It was on Game 3 of the Golden State/New Orleans series as the first 2 games of the series went under. However, in this Atlanta/Brooklyn series, the first 3 games have gone under. This has now caused the odds makers to over adjust the line. Game 1 saw the total lined at 205. It is now almost 10 points lower. We have to strike now. A great situation in the NBA playoffs is when the first 3 games of a series go under. To be honest, usually the first 2 games is a good situation, but we are in a very rare spot here. Just blindly betting this situation in years past would have made you a lot of money. 

Atlanta shot very poorly in Game 3 and Kyle Korver had a dismal performance. I don't see this happening again. The Hawks should come out with a sense of urgency here as now they know they just can't walk through this series. A loss here and they could be in big trouble. I expect Atlanta to really push the pace tonight. Both teams average 200 points a game. Atlanta scores 101 and allows 99 and Brooklyn is the exact opposite, allowing 101 and scoring 99. Eventually one of these games have to go over. 

I will tell you now that if we don't cash this ticket, we will have an even bigger play on the over in Game 5, especially with this series heading back to Atlanta. I do feel though we have a great opportunity here tonight and we can't pass up this very rare situation. Look for a much higher scoring contest in Game 4.

50* NBA PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE MONTH

Houston Rockets -135

Some spots have this at -2.5 (-105) and buying the hook to -2 would be ok also if you don't want to lay this much juice. 

We took Houston heavy in Game 3 and I knew if they took care of business for us then, we would have a big play here in Game 4. Most of the same things I said for Game 3 can go for Game 4. Dallas has no answer for Houston and shutting down Parsons and Rondo has told me that they have quit on the season. Rondo was a cancer anyway and killed the team chemistry. The Mavs gave EVERYTHING they had in Game 3 and still couldn't come away with a win. They were even up by 13 at one point. 

To make matters worse, Coach Carlisle called out the referees and got fined $25,000 for his remarks. Good luck getting calls now. You just sealed your doom my friend. Houston is too big and too physical for Dallas. The Rockets are 7-1 ATS their last 8 meetings against the Mavericks and are 7-0 ATS their last 7 First Round games. Get your brooms out...we're going heavy on the sweep tonight.

50* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans OVER 205

Golden State is #1 or #2 in every offensive category. However, they are a solid defensive team, which does hurt, but what is good for us is that they are much worse on the road. As we saw in Game 3, the pace was much faster in New Orleans and the defense was much worse for the Warriors. The Pelicans had great success shooting the ball and went on several runs throughout the game.

I expect the wind has been completely taken out of the sails of the Pelicans after their 4th quarter collapse. They know they blew this series and it's all but over. New Orleans should play this game loose with a nothing to lose attitude. Typically games played with this mentality are higher scoring since they don't give that great of a defensive effort but do try to give the fans a fun, offensive showcase type game to watch. With this being an elimination game, this does give us that chance of a much longer "foul game" at the end of regulation as New Orleans will continue to foul knowing this is the end of their season. New Orleans is a much better scoring team at home and they play much faster. They also are a worse defensive team in their own building. If these teams are knocking down their threes, this goes over with ease

40*

San Antonio Spurs -4

40*

Washington Wizards -3.5

Alright Washington, don't let me down now. It pains me to admit this but I'm a supporter of Washington sports teams. Do I ever let my heart interfere with my head in matters of picking winners...absolutely not. If anything, I'll bet against them more often than not because this town just loves losing and blowing great opportunities. Something tells me this is different. 

Paul Pierce is the X factor for this Wizards club and his veteran leadership has helped the Wizards and has hurt the Raptors. He has gotten into the heads of this Toronto club. I've never been a big fan of Toronto. They shoot way too many jump shots and if they are not falling, they get crushed. The Raptors are 0-5 ATS their last 5 First Round games and the Wizards are 6-0 ATS their last 6 First Round games. I expect the Verizon Center to go ballistic tonight and give a huge boost to the Wizards. As long as the Washington doesn't get soft on the boards and start playing ME ball, the Wizards should cruise here.

40*

Houston Rockets +1

Everything points to the Rockets here. Shutting down Parsons and Rondo half way through this series tells me all I need to know about the Mavs. I feel this team has quit. Deep down they know they have no shot beating this Rockets team. Most of the talk about this team is that Rondo is a cancer and that he is not going to return next season. You can just see players looking on the bench in disgust at him. This KILLS team chemistry.

The Rockets have been destroying the Mavs. Dallas has had no answer for the Rockets. Up top, down low, everything seems to work for Houston. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS their last 7 meetings and 6-0 ATS their last 6 First Round games. Look for Houston to take a commanding 3-0 lead and pretty much put an end to the Mavs season.

30* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans OVER 203

We have a beautiful situation here that we love in the NBA playoffs and we are going to take full advantage. We have two high scoring teams here and Game 1 and Game 2 have gone under the total. This is a great situation to cash on an over bet in Game 3. The best situation there can be, however, is if Games 1-3 go UNDER, Game 4 IS going over. So even if we do lose this bet, I'll tell you right now we're going to have a gigantic play on the over in Game 4. I really do like our chances in this one though as Golden State is #1 or #2 in every offensive category and they are great on defense, which does hurt, but good for us is that they are much worse at home. 

New Orleans is a much better scoring team at home and they play much faster. They also are a worse defensive team in their own building. If these teams are knocking down their threes, this goes over with ease, and if they aren't, our Playoff Total Of The Year is going in Game 4.

30*

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics OVER 203.5

40* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5

LeBron James is the best player of all time in the First Round. He is 36-7 and has swept his opposition 3 years running. King James has lost a Game 3 ONCE in his career, in the first round, as a #1 or #2 seed. I refuse to over think this one. There is just too much of a mis-match in talent between these two clubs. Cleveland should have no problem sweeping these guys.

Little foot note: LeBron's last memory of wearing a Cav's jersey prior to this season...Yeah, getting knocked out of the playoffs in Boston and heading to Miami in the offseason. No doubt he'll want some serious pay back.

30*

Memphis Grizzlies -6

As an added bonus, we are playing the Los Angeles Dodgers as well. I do think Memphis covers but personally am going to play some if it on the moneyline. A teaser with San Antonio is a great option up to +7 as 7 is a very key number, 3 possession game. Personally think Spurs take Game 2 regardless.

40*

Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 206

30*

Golden State Warriors -12.5

30* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK

San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 205

30*

Cleveland Cavaliers -11

money line parlay the with Chicago, Golden State, and Atlanta is a solid play.

Analysis will be posted on the NBA picks later tonight when the card is finalized. For what it's worth, I think Cleveland wins the East and either Golden State or San Antonio come out of the West.

30*

Chicago Bulls -7.5

analysis coming later tonight 

20*

Los Angeles Lakers -3.5

50* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH

Detroit Pistons -7

The Knicks have reeled off 2 straight wins and most recently beat Eastern conference front runner, Atlanta Hawks. This team is in for a letdown. Even if it isn't a letdown, I would be shocked if management lets them win this game. By winning those games, they may as well screwed up their future and the NBA draft lottery. If they win tonight and Philly loses, they could end up with lower than a 5th pick in the draft. With a loss here, they'll be close to a lock for a Top 2 pick. The Knicks have shown this year they can go completely cold from the field and just get rocked. 

Detroit has the talent to blow this team out. They are also coming off a double digit loss their last outing and this team has excelled ATS in this spot. They have covered 9 straight after getting blown out. Look for the Pistons to win this game by double digits.

20*

Toronto Raptors -1

Was going to release this one last night at +4 but feared a huge over night jump and that's exactly what happened. It wouldn't be fair to you guys as most of you would have got this play at this number regardless. Anyways, I do still like the Raptors to win this game outright and -2 would be the cutoff for this play. No one wants a part of the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs and the Celtics just could lay down the rest of the season to secure the #8 seed.

20*

Utah Jazz -11.5

In a nutshell, this is a horrible spot for Dallas. They have the 7 seed wrapped up and come off a back-to-back after playing a very fast paced game against the Lakers last night. It's always tough to come into the altitude (Denver/Utah) off a back to back and this line should bury the public tonight as no one is going to want to lay this number. I expect the Jazz to rout the Mavs tonight as Utah has been playing exceptionally well lately and have not quit on the season.

UPDATE: Hayward may not be playing in this one, the reason behind the line dropping. If he does not go, I think a smart way to buy back would be the under. At worst, we split.

50* NBA UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Philadelphia 76ers +2

I am personally playing part of the wager on the moneyline.

This line is very suspect. The odds makers are telling us that the Bucks are going to take the night off here and mail it in. I fully expect that to happen. Milwaukee just wrapped up a playoff birth and the number 6 seed after having the league's worst record last year. The Bucks are also playing off a back-to-back so this should ensure the letdown. Look for Philadelphia to get up for this game so they can say they ended their season on a high note by beating a playoff team in front of their home fans and give some hope going into next season.

30*

Phoenix Suns vs. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 202.5

Every stat, trend, and indicator for the Phoenix Suns have them playing to the under tonight. They have gone under the total in 25 of their last 35 games and this team is just walking through the end of the season and can't wait to start playing some golf. Even when they play this San Antonio Spurs team they play under the total as well. They have gone under the total in 5 of their last 6 meetings. 

30*

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers UNDER 209

This is a huge game for both clubs as they are both fighting to get into the playoffs. Typically in the NBA, big games go under. Teams give more of an effort on the defensive end in these big games and give the "4th quarter effort" the entire game. The Pacers do have one of the best defenses in the game and they are in the Top 5 in almost every defensive category when playing on their home floor. These two teams have scored under this number in 6 of their last 7 meetings against each other. Given the magnitude of this game, there is only one way to look in this game, at that is towards the under.

20*

Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 194.5

20*

Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 207

50* NBA EASTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR

Brooklyn Nets -5

Revenge really isn't as big of a deal in the NBA as it is in the NCAA, but in certain spots it is. The Wizards crushed the Nets 114-77 their last meeting. Brooklyn definitely remembers that beat down. Brooklyn has been playing well lately, winning 7 of 10 which includes beating Toronto, Portland and Cleveland and almost came back and beat the Hawks their last game. I expect the Nets to play very focused in this one as they haven't lost back to back games in about a month.

As for the Wizards, they have been a mess on the road. The did destroy the 76ers their last game and had a great offensive shooting night. That usually means a let down the next game. The Wizards are just 5-14 ATS their last 19 on the road. With Washington being 0-5 ATS their last 5 games playing on a days rest and Brooklyn being 5-0 ATS their last 5 following an ATS loss, look for the Nets to keep their playoff hopes alive in front of their home fans tonight.

30*

Orlando Magic +6

50* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Golden State Warriors -9

This is a nightmare scheduling spot for the Portland Trailblazers. They are currently playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, having to make up a game in Brooklyn, but what makes this a terrible spot is that this is the Trailblazers 11th game since they played the Warriors last on the 24th of March. Portland could take the night off here. 

Golden State has now lost 2 in a row and they have been terrific bouncing back after two defeats. The Warriors are 13-3 ATS playing at home this season laying more than 6.5 points. Most will think Portland needs this game more so they'll play harder, but I expect Golden State to play with the sense of urgency and with the line this high, it's telling me Golden State will not be laying down. With the sharps all over this one, we'll go with the Warriors to win by double digits tonight.

20*

Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks UNDER 191.5

Leaning Pacers -12 also. Will post if it's an official play.

30*

Boston Celtics -1

20*

Minnesota Timberwolves +11

I don't care WHO Sacramento is playing, they should not be laying double digits to anyone. I'll take my chances here as I just don't see how Sacramento keeps up a full 48 minutes of effort in order to blowout this Timberwolves team.

40* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK

San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 216

50* NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP TOP PLAY WINNER

Wisconsin vs. Duke UNDER 140

One has to think that both the Badgers and Dukies are not going to let you beat them from the perimeter in this game. I expect both teams to do a lot of entry passes and post moves since Duke has Okafor and Wisconsin has Kaminsky. I also expect the refs to swallow their whistles a bit because no one wants to be the one that calls the controversial call to ruin their career. This happens a lot in all sports in championship games, typically. Both teams also don't commit a lot of fouls or turnovers. Very discipline teams don't allow points with the clock stopped or easy transition buckets. Big games tend to go under with the teams playing tight and really heightening their defensive effort. 

40* NBA BAILOUT GAME OF THE WEEK

Los Angeles Clippers -12

The Lakers have been getting destroyed lately and it seems as if they are doing so purposely as they need to keep losing to keep their draft pick. If they fall out of the bottom 5 worst records, the pick is no longer protected and they have to give it up in a trade. The Clippers will have no problem taking out their frustrations on the Lakers as they take pride in dominating their big brother as the Lakers have always crushed them in prior years.

20*

Chicago Bulls vs. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 200

50* NCAA FINAL FOUR MAX BET

Kentucky -5

I personally am going to play part of this bet on the money-line with a money-line parlay.

ML=money-line

Kentucky ML (-230) + Duke (-230) = +105 odds.

40* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK

Memphis Grizzlies -4.5

We are banking on Tony Allen and Zach Randolph playing. This will still be a wager as long as ONE of these guys are playing. Obviously, we'd love both guys to play and I expect at least Randolph will start.

40*

Stanford -1.5

20*

Toronto Raptors -9.5

20*

Chicago Bulls -5

30*

Oklahoma City Thunder -2

50* NBA CUSTOMER APPRECIATION MAX BET

Los Angeles Clippers -1.5

70* THE #1 & BIGGEST PLAY OF THE SEASON

Temple -1

For all intents and purposes, this is practically a home game for the Owls. Madison Square Garden is only 90 miles away from Temple and it's less than a 2 hour drive. I expect Temple to have a huge following for this game tonight. Needless to say, Miami is light years away and coach Jim Larranaga has NEVER coached here before. 

The Temple Owls are simply on fire right now and are destroying everything in their paths. They have won 14 of their last 17 games and two of those losses came to SMU. Temple's last two wins came by 13 and 18 points. They are 11-2 ATS following a win, which includes going 9-2 following a spread win. 

As for Miami, they have had to use a ton of energy in their games and needed a miraculous come back to beat Richmond their last game. Let's be honest, terrible coaching cost the Spiders in that one. The Hurricanes 3 wins in this tournament have come by a combined 13 points. I think their luck is going to run out in this one, especially with one of, if not, their best player Rodrigues being listed as OUT. Miami also has 2 other key injuries and they are not close to 100%. But you know who is 100%? That's right, the Temple Owls.

Temple's defense should frustrate the hell out of Miami tonight and looking at the stats, the Owls have the edge in close to every aspect of the game. They do in all the defensive categories and they turn the ball over less and create more turnovers. The huge factor here is on the boards. Temple has a big advantage here and I believe this is what will be Miami's doom. If we get a solid effort from the Owls on defense here and they are hitting a solid percentage from the floor, Temple cruises to the finals and for what it's worth, I think they are the eventual Champions. 

20*

Sacramento Kings vs. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 196.5

The Kings have scored 100+ in 11 of 13 games and have allowed 100+ in 10 of 13. Memphis has shown they push the pace against the bad teams and with the recent funk they have been in, I see them giving max effort here.

20*

Louisiana-Monroe vs. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 130

30* NBA DOUBLE DOG PACK

Houston Rockets +2

As you'll see with both of these underdog selections, the dog as something to play for and the favorite is in a prime letdown spot with little motivation. Toronto clinched their division against the Lakers their last game and are pretty much locked in either a 3rd or 4th seed. The Raptors are 18-40 ATS their last 58 home games facing a team with a winning record, which includes losing 5 straight.

Houston is in 2nd right now in the West and have been playing outstanding basketball of late. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS their last 5 against the Eastern Conference and they shouldn't have a problem making it 6 in a row tonight. I personally think Houston should be favored in this one and we'll gladly take the points here.

30* NBA DOUBLE DOG PACK

Milwaukee Bucks +7.5

As you'll see with both of these underdog selections, the dog as something to play for and the favorite is in a prime letdown spot with little motivation. Atlanta has clinched the top spot in the Eastern Conference and have nothing to play for so I expect them to take caution and prepare for the playoffs.

As for Milwaukee, they need to keep winning to stay in the playoff picture. They are the #6 seed currently and although their ceiling is the 6th seed, they can't afford to lose because you absolutely do not want to drop to the 7th or 8th seed in the East. If you do, you're taking on Atlanta or Cleveland on the road and you will be destroyed. I expect Atlanta to take this game lightly tonight and suffer a bit of a letdown and Milwaukee should come out with a sense of urgency, especially since they got beat badly last time out. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS following a loss of 10+ points and they should keep that success going tonight by staying inside the number.

40* NBA 100% NEVER LOST TOP PLAY

Philadelphia 76ers -4

This a battle of the bottom feeders and it's tough betting on bad teams but I think we have a great advantage with the 76ers tonight. Philadelphia has been favored just TWICE this season. That's right, two times. They won both and by a margin of victory of 13.5 points and covering the spread by 10+. The 76ers are also the 5th best team in the league playing on no rest. They cover the spread 2 out of every 3 games in this spot. Philadelphia has been great against the number at home this season, especially against the bad teams of the league. They are 12-5 ATS their last 17 home games which includes going 6-1 facing a team with a winning percentage of .400 or less. 

The Lakers are 19-53 this season as underdogs, losing each game by an average of 6 points. Most people are going to jump all over the Lakers here and so far 60% of the bets are on LA but the line is still climbing. These two teams faced off about a week ago with LA pulling away in the second half. I like Philly to get their revenge here and continue their success at home and staying undefeated as a favorite. 

20*

Duke -2

Also have a small lean to the UNDER 145. Will post the pick if it becomes an official play.

30*

Gonzaga vs. Duke UNDER 145

Was going to make this a small play but a lot of cappers I respect are all over this one. Apparently, the sight levels, back drops, and the rims are TERRIBLE for the shooters and it's been a problem. You can see with the Duke/Utah game and the Gonzaga/UCLA game. Both teams struggled to score from the floor. They got almost all their points in the paint. Not going to make this a top play simply because it's hard to judge what the referees are going to do this late in the tourney. Just last night they called 100 fouls in the Wisconsin game and only 10 in the Kentucky game. Still, we'll play this UNDER for 3%.

20*

Los Angeles Lakers +7

Believe it or not, the Lakers have been terrific in their current situation of late. They are 10-1 ATS their last 11 following a loss, which includes going 5-0 ATS following a spread loss. This team also has had great success against Brooklyn in the Barclay's center. LA is 8-1-1 ATS their last 11 meetings in Brooklyn. 

The Nets come off a HUGE win against the Cavaliers and I expect a bit of a letdown from them here. Brooklyn is just 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 home games and are 0-7 ATS their last 7 home games facing a team with a winning percentage of less than .400 or less. Classic letdown spot here as Brooklyn should not be laying 3 possessions to really anyone.

50* NCAA CUSTOMER APPRECIATION MAX BET

Michigan State -2

20*

Houston Rockets -2

50* NCAA TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Arizona vs. Wisconsin UNDER 133.5

Most people are going to look at this total and think it's too low, especially since Wisconsin has been scoring a ton lately, but if you look closer, this total is actually too high. Wisconsin has played teams in the first three rounds of the tournament that aren't known for their defense one bit and they try to beat you by outscoring you. They now take on Arizona, who has one of the best defenses in the country. Arizona only allows 59 points per game on the season and LESS than 40% opponents FG percentage on the season. That's extremely impressive. But what makes this play even better is that Wisconsin has a terrific defense as well. They allow actually less points than Arizona on the season. The Badgers allow just 57 points per game and 41% opponents FG percentage. 

When these two teams met last, they played in this exact game (Elite 8) and it was a very low scoring game. It was 54-54 in regulation and the final score was 64-63 with Wisconsin winning in OT. That's just 127 points and that's even with the extra session. 

As for the trends. Both teams are trending towards the UNDER in all of their current spots. The Wildcats are 5-1 to the under their last 6 overall and 6-1 to the under their last 7 neutral site games. The teams are also 4-1 to the under when playing a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better. There's an old saying; Big games go UNDER. Teams play very intense defense and the jitters usually force some bad/missed shots. This is the biggest game of both their seasons and this game should stay under the posted total tonight.

50* NCAA PARLAY OF THE YEAR

Michigan State -130

When looking at both Wichita State and Michigan State, you'll notice very similar things. BOTH are 7 seeds FAVORED over 3 seeds. BOTH teams have the advantage in coaching, and BOTH have the better defense then their opposition. I also love the potential story lines that would happen if both the Shockers and the Spartans win. For Wichita, they will get a chance to try and take down the team that spoiled their perfect season last year (Kentucky) and fittingly try and spoil the Wildcats quest for perfection. For Michigan State, it sets up the dream coaching match-up, if Louisville wins, of Izzo vs. Pitino. Coaching is SO important this time of year, especially now with the extra time to prepare and it's never a good bet to go against Izzo.

30*

Duke -5

30*

Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs OVER 206.5

One of my top NBA totals guys loves this play and we agree with it. These Spurs are on fire offensively right now and they are trending towards the over in every situation they are in tonight. They have gone over the total in 9 of their last 11 games, which includes 6 of their last 7 home games. They are also 8-2 to the over when they score 100 points the previous game. Both teams shoot a ton of threes and are successful at it. As long as they can shoot the rock effectively and don't go ice cold, this game should have the pace to sail over the total.

30*

Louisville -2

20*

Gonzaga -8.5

20*

Arizona -10.5

For all intents and purposes, this is a home game for Arizona. The Wildcats are just too talented for the Musketeers to keep up with. Hollis-Jefferson and Johnson had horrible shooting days against Ohio State and they still manage to crush them. I don't see them struggling two games in a row and that is just terrible news for Xavier. It turns out that the Big-12 is very over-rated and the Pac-12 is very under-rated. Xavier is just 1-5 ATS against the Pac-12 and Arizona is 12-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. The only thing that scares me in this game, which is why this is just a 2% play, is that Xavier's coach knows Arizona extremely well as he was the understudy to Arizona's coach. They coached together and he was an assistant for Miller. Look for Arizona to pull away late and cruise to a comfortable win.

40* TOP TOURNEY TOTAL

West Virginia vs. Kentucky OVER 136.5

I expect this game to be played fast with the full court pressure WVU plays with and the Kentucky Wildcats love to get out and run and they excel at it. There should be a ton of fouls in this game, which puts points on the board with the clock stopped. West Virginia commits a ton of fouls. With the type of intense defense they play, it's almost impossible not to with all the hand checking fouls that are called. That is a huge key when playing the over. Also both teams shoot threes at a solid rate but WVU shoots a bunch of them. I expect WVU to shoot a lot of them since it's very hard scoring in the paint against Kentucky with the giant trees down low blocking shots. The Wildcats should have a decent sized lead towards the end of the game, which will force WVU to play the foul game at the end. Teams don't want to give up in the NCAA Tournament, especially this far in, knowing this is their last basketball game. The last 2 minutes of a 7-10 point game can take 30 minutes if the trailing team continues to make shots. If Kentucky solves the press, which I expect them to do, this should be a high scoring blowout.

30*

Wisconsin -5.5

I am personally going to do a moneyline parlay with Wisconsin ML + Duke ML. (ML=moneyline)

If Wisconsin loses (since they play Thursday and we'll already know the outcome) we'll play Duke -5. If Wisconsin wins, we'll let it ride.

Also taking a hard look at Gonzaga. Looking into them some more and they could be added later. Will publish them if they are official plays.

50* NCAA PARLAY OF THE YEAR

Wichita State -122

When looking at both Wichita State and Michigan State, you'll notice very similar things. BOTH are 7 seeds FAVORED over 3 seeds. BOTH teams have the advantage in coaching, and BOTH have the better defense then their opposition. I also love the potential story lines that would happen if both the Shockers and the Spartans win. For Wichita, they will get a chance to try and take down the team that spoiled their perfect season last year (Kentucky) and fittingly try and spoil the Wildcats quest for perfection. For Michigan State, it sets up the dream coaching match-up, if Louisville wins, of Izzo vs. Pitino. Coaching is SO important this time of year, especially now with the extra time to prepare and it's never a good bet to go against Izzo.

Wichita State is 7-2 ATS their last 9 NCAA Tournament games and Notre Dame is just 1-10 ATS their last 11 NCAA Tournament games. 1-10 ATS...that's just pathetic!

20*

Phoenix Suns -8

20*

Utah Jazz -4.5

30*

New Orleans Pelicans +1

ONLY bet this if Dwight Howard plays. Yes, I said plays. I expect Houston to be rusty with him in the game and throw off a bit of the chemistry.