The set-up: This is the final game of the regular season for each team. I think this one means a lot more to the Seniors on Xavier as the Musketeers look to avenge a 66-61 road loss to the Butler Bulldogs in February. As primarily a "situational handicapper," this is exactly the type of "situation" and "motivation" I look for when breaking down a contest. Overall Butler averages 68.4 PPG and it allows 61.8. But not only is Xavier hungry to avenge the loss to Butler on Senior night, but it's still in a fight for one of the final spots in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Most recently the Musketeers fell 80-74 to Providence, making this a "must win" game for all intents and purposes. Overall Xavier averages 70.8 PPG and it allows 67.3. 

The pick: Xavier is 16-4 in its last 20 at home and 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games as well. I think Xavier pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier. 

The set-up: It's senior night for Georgetown. The Hoyas enter having lost five straight and with nothing to lose, I think the home side does in fact play with pride as it tries to pull off the big upset on national TV. Overall the Wildcats average 73.3 PPG and htey allow 66.3, while the Hoyas average 75.3 PPG and allow 74. 

The pick: Note as well that Villanova is just 3-7 ATS this year after plyaing three straight conference contests, while Georgetown is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 after two or more consecutive losses. Look for this one to come down to the wire and grab as many points as you can.

8* PLAY-BOOK on Georgetown.

The set-up: This is a matchup of the 8th and 9th seeds in the Sun Belt Tournament and when the smoke does finally clear, I expect this total to stay under the posted number. These teams split a pair of games this year, each winning on its home floor. The Red Wolves won 79-67 in December and then the Cajuns returned the favor with a 77-74 win in February. While both of those games went OVER the number, I do now finally feel that this conference contest will be more of a defensive affair. 

The pick: And the numbers/trends support that theory as well, as note that Arkansas State has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten tournament games when the total is set at 150 or higher, while UL Lafayette has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 11 Conference Tournament home games as a favorite in the -2.5 to -5.5 points range. Expect each team to double down defensively now that it's Tournament time and a one and done format.

10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Arkansas State/UL Lafayette.

The set-up: This is the final game of the regular season for each. I'm basing this play most only the "revenge angle," as Georgia Tech posted the 68-59 home victory in the reverse fixture earlier in the season. The Yellow Jackets won't be participating in any tournaments this year because of a ban, so this is a meaningless game to them. Overall Georgia Tech averages 68.7 PPG and it allows 66.6. The Tigers average 66.9 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end by allowing only 63.9. 

The pick: Not only does Clemson play with revenge on Seniors Night, but note that Georgia Tech is 0-14 on the road in its last 14 in this series (the Tigers have won those games by an average of 10.1 points). Georgia Tech has lost four of its last five on the road and I expect the home side to take full advantage.

10* BEST OF THE BEST on Clemson.

The set-up: The Beavers upset the Cardinal by five on the road earlier in the season and I believe they'll find a way to do it again on their own floor tonight. The home side will be looking to play spoiler here on Seniors Night, as Stanford comes in having won four straight and on the verge of punching its ticket to The Big Dance. The Beavers are desperate to stop a four-game slide of their own and while they'll likely need to win the Conference tournament now to get an invite, there's still plenty to play for here for the home side. 

The pick: Note as well that Stanford is already 0-2 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games, while Oregon State is a sharp 9-5 ATS at home this season. I'm laying the points on the hungrier home side on Seniors night.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Oregon State.

The set-up: I think 17-10 Siena is going to lay the smackdown on 11-18 Niagara. This is a revenge game for the Saints after the Purple Eageles somehow managed a SU outright, 1-point win over the Saints. Niagara has won four of its last six games, while Sienna has won seven of its last ten. 

The pick: The Purple Eagles though for the most part have been terrible defensively, allowing their opponents to hit at a 46 percent rate from the floor. The Saints on the other hand have turned up the pressure defensively of late and I look for that trend to carry over here vs. this poor Niagara offense (note that the Saints have given up an average of just 60 points in their last seven conference contests.) The Saints are also 4-1 ATS in their last five at home. I'm laying the points here and expecting a blowout of epic proportions.

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Siena. 

The set-up: In this battle between 15-13 Clemson and 15-14 Virginia Tech, I think that the "home court advantage" will be significant for the Hokies tonight. VT has to be feeling confident here as well, as it already beat the Tigers on their own floor earlier in the season. Both teams have big victories on the season, but each has looked downright terrible at times as well. 

The pick: And after losing nine of its last ten, I absolutely believe that Virginia Tech is the "hungrier" team in this fight, especially considering that the Tigers enter off an improbable last-second upset over Louisville! Can anyone say letdown spot?! Each team is playing for pride for the most part here, but VT is desperate on Seniors Night. Lay the short points.

10* ACC BEST OF THE BEST on Virginia Tech.

The set-up: Michigan State enters having won three straight, while Penn State enters off a road loss to Iowa. The Hawkeyes failed to cover for a fourth straight game and clearly the home side will be eager to return to form here. The Spartans have two players scoring in double figures and they average 75.7 PPG and they allow 64.4. Penn State also has two players scoring in double figures and it averages 75.4 PPG and it allows 67.4. Both teams play at a faster pace than the average NCAA tempo and I expect an all out war from start to finish. 

The pick: Note as well that Michigan State has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten conference road games after a three-games or longer SU/ATS unbeaten streak. I think the Nittany Lions come out and push the pace and MSU will have to match that tempo. This number is a little low.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER MSU/Penn State.

The set-up: The Bearcats will be in the NCAA Tournament, but they won't want to take the foot off the gas now with just two games left in the regualr season. USF is just 6-10 in AAC action. The only way the Bulls are going to The Dance is if they can somehow win the conference tournament, and obviously that's not going to happen. I think the Bearcats can "smell the blood in the water" and I look for them to deliver the knock out blow to the home side's hopes tonight. The Bearcats can lock up a spot in the NCAA Tournament today and I expect them to play with desperation from the opening tip, until the final horn. 

The pick: Note as well that Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games as a favorite in the -1.5 to -4.5 points range. The Bearcats are deeper, more talented and are the "hungrier dog" in this fight. I'm laying the points.

10* ULTIMATE BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on Cincinnati.

The set-up: Wisconsin is in a fight for second spot in the Big Ten. Minnesota will likely be in 12th in the upcoming Conference Tournament. Two weeks ago the Gophers upset the Badgers 70-52, so clearly the home side is looking to avenge that setback. Minnesota was impressive defensively though, holding the Badgers to just 28.4 percent. I think this one will result in a similar final combined score once it's all said and done. 

The pick: Besides, the numbers/trends support this theory as well. As note that Wisconsin has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last ten conference home games trying to revenge a same season road loss to an opponent of ten or more points, while Minnesota has seen the total dip below in nine of its last 14 conference road games as an underdog in the +4.5 to +7.5 points range. Both teams are extremely adept at launching up the three, but in this important conference game, I believe every shot will be contested, which will help in pushing this total well under once it's all said and done. 

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Minnesota/Wisconsin.

The set-up: It's 18-10 Xavier at 15-13 Georgetown. I think the home side is going to find a way to get the job done here. Note that the Hoyas play with revenge after the flost by nine at Xavier earlier in the year. Xavier is projected to be a ten seed in the NCAA Tournament, but Georgetown is on the bubble and falling off quickly after three straight losses. This is essentially a "do or die" game for the Hoyas. They also play with revenge. As primarily a "situational" handicapper, I do indeed believe that from a situational stand point, this one sets up great for the home side. 

The pick: Note as well that Xavier is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine conference road games as a -3.5 points favorite or pick, while Georgetown is 6-2 ATS in its last eight conference home games after three games or longer SU losing streak. I'm backing the "hungrier" dog in this fight. 

10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on Georgetown.

The set-up: Back on January 21st these teams played together and Kansas won 81-60, but at the end there was a bench clearing brawl that made national head lines and each team had players suspended because of it. Kansas comes in off a big 25 point win over Oklahoma State, while K-State enters off an 85-66 loss to Baylor. But after covering the spread in six straight games, I think the visiting side will be in for a real fight here vs. this revenge-minded home side. 

The pick: K-State may have lost eight in a row, but note that it's 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a conference road loss as a ten points or higher underdog. I think Kansas does in some small way get caught looking past K-State today. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST on Kansas State.

The set-up: Ultimately I think that Pitt comes in under the radar here after five-straight losses. NC State has issues as well, as it enters having lost two straight. Neither team is "hungrier" than the other, so we can throw overall motivation out the window here in this one. Overall the Panthers average 64.9 PPG and they allow 64.6, while NC State averages 74.5 PPG and it allows 69.6.

The pick: Note as well that Pitt is 7-3 ATS in its last ten conference road games following a five-games or longer SU losing streak, while NC State is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten home conference games as a favorite in the 7.5 to 9.5 points range. I'm grabbing the points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Pittsburgh.

The set-up: Texas A&M had won three in a row, before a loss at home to Kentucky last time out. LSU won't be taking anything for granted here though as it desperately tries to get untracked after having lost five of its last seven overall. LSU posted an 89-85 OT win at Texas A&M earlier in the year, but I believe we'll be in for much more of a defensive affair in the re-match. 

The pick: The Aggies average 62.5 PPG, while LSU averages 80.2 PPG. That said, note that Texas A&M has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 conference road games in trying to revenge a same season home loss vs. an opponent in which it gave up more than 85 points in, while LSU has seen the total dip under in seven of its last 11 conference home games when the total in the contest is set between 141 and 145. Expect these two hungry teams to fight tooth and nail and for this total to indeed stay under once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST On the UNDER A&M/LSU.

The set-up: Princeton comes in off a 65-62 win over Dartmouth on Saturday, while the Bears will be eager to back into the winners circle after their listless 63-45 loss to Cornell. Princeton beat Brown 73-54 at home in mid February, but I'm predicting a much higher-scoring affair this time around. Princeton will look to keep the foot on the gas here as it still sits one game back of Yale for top spot. The Bears were actually favored in their last game and they'll absolutely be out to atone for that poor effort, while also being extra motivated to avenge the earlier loss to Princeton as well. Situationally its sets up beautifully for a higher-scoring game. 

The pick: Note as well that Princeton's already seen the total go "over" the number in three of four this year after playing a game as a road favorite, while Brown has seen the total fly over the number in ten of its last 12 as a home underdog of pick. Considering all of the above factors, I do indeed feel that this number is a tad low.

10* IVY-LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Princeton/Brown.

The set-up: Michigan has won seven of its last eight and it'll be playing in the NCAA tournament. Wisconsin will be out to pull off an upset here though as it enters having won five of its last six. UW hasn't won here since 2015 though. According to the KenPom rankings, these are two of the most efficient teams on the defensive end of the floor in the country, as Wisconsin is ranked 23rd and Michigan is ranked 17th. 

The pick: Additionally note that the "under" is 10-3 in the Badgers last 13 road games, while Michigan has seen the total dip below in eight of its last 11 conference road games after a four-games or longer unbeaten streak. This number is high.

10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin/Michigan UNDER.

The set-up: VCU is 7-7 in conference play after an 80-62 loss in St. Louis last time out. A date vs. 6-8 UMass is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though in my opinion. UMass looks poised for a letdown here ultimately in my opinion after two straight wins, including a 57-49 victory over Fordham. Overall VCU averages 71.3 PPG and it allows 65, while the Minutemen average 68.7 PPG and they allow 71.6. 

The pick: VCU is the "hungrier" team here for sure after four straight losses. The Rams though are a money-making 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a four-games or longer conference losing streak and I expect this strong trend to continue here. Lay the points.

8* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on VCU.

The set-up: UCF has lost two of its last three and its just 5-9 in AAC play. The Knights are going to have their hands full here trying to muster up much of an offensive attack in my opinion vs. the stingy Huskies. UConn enters off a 78-71 win over USF. UConn is jockeying for better positioning in the upcoming Conference tourmanent, which it will need to win to get an invite to the Big Dance. 

The pick: These two teams have played to the under in seven of their last ten in the series and everything once again points to a lower-scoring battle tonight. UConn only averages 71.7 PPG and UCF clocks in a 68.9 per game. Considering all of the above factors, I'm going to recommend a play on the "under." 

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER UCF/UConn.

The set-up: Villanove will be playing in the tournament, but St. John's is desperate for a few more wins. An outright upset here would solidify its spot and while I'm not actually calling for the outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The Red Storm play with revenge here after losing by 20 to the Wildcats at home earlier in the season. Clearly Villanova is the better team, but after four straight wins I beleive it'll struggle to maintain focus today. 

The pick: Note as well that St. John's is 7-3 ATS in its last ten conference road games in trying to revenge a same season home loss of 20 points or more, while Villanova is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after a three-games or longer SU/ATS unbeaten streak. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on St. John's.

The set-up: Two teams scrapping for respectability on Tuesday night and I'm expecting an all out war from the opening tip until the final horn. TCU has won two of its last three, including a victory over WVU on the road last time out. Iowa State has lost seven of its last nine, including its most recent vs. Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs are definitely going to have their hands full here vs. the revenge minded home side, which fell 81-79 in OT at TCU earlier in the season (note TCU needed OT to beat WVU last time out as well.) Situationally this one definitely sets up as more of a "chess match," than a "shootout" in my opinion. 

The pick: Both teams are two of the worst on the offensive side of things and I think each unit struggles here. Note as well that TCU has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 after an OT road victory, while Iowa State has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 11 home games as a favorite in the -1.5 to -3.5 range. Considering all of the above info, I do indeed believe this number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER TCU/Iowa State.

The set-up: Kent State comes in hungry after its 104-98 double OT loss to Buffalo last time out. Buffalo now moves two games ahead of the Flashes and with just four games remaining, it's now or never for Kent State. A date vs. the last place Redhawks is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as well. Kent State also plays with revenge here after inexplicably falling to Miami Ohio 77-74 in the reverse fixture. 

The pick: Kent State is also 4-1 ATS in its last five after back-to-back SU losses and as a home favorite in the -9.5 to -11.5 points range, while Miami Ohio is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten on the road. If not now, when for the Flashes?! I'm expecting a victory of the "rocking chair" variety here. Lay the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Kent State.

The set-up: Kansas is better than Oklahoma State in every conceivable way, but the Jayhawks look primed for a classic "letdown" here in my estimation after their big road win over then No. 1 Baylor last time out. Oklahoma State comes in with nothing to lose and the Cowboys are also confident, as they enter off an 83-66 win over Oklahoma. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully for the visiting side. 

The pick: Note though that Oklahoma State is 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road dog of 12.5 points or more, while KU is already 0-4 ATS this season as a home favorite in the 12.5 to 15 points range. Grab the points, expect a competitive battle until the end.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State.

The set-up: Miami has struggled for the most of the year, but it comes in having won three of its last four. It'll want to play spoiler here too, as the Irish are now firmly on the bubble. Both teams are desperate for victories and I believe the sense of urgency that each team plays with today will help in driving this total well under the posted number once it's all said and done. 

The pick: Note as well that Miami Florida has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 conference road games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous contest in a victory (won 102-95 over Virgnia Tech in triple OT!), while Notre Dame has seen the total go under in seven of its last 11 conference home games as a favorite in the -4.5 to -7.5 points range. This number is too high.

10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Miami Florida/Notre Dame.

The set-up: Boise State is 18-10 overall and 10-6 in conference polay, but 17-11 New Mexico (6-9) isn't going to simply roll over here. New Mexico comes in desperate after three straight losses (all to stiff competition: SDSU, UNLV and Nevada). Overall New Mexico averages 78.5 PPG, while allowing 76.6. Boise State averages 77 PPG and it allows 69.4. 

The pick: New Mexico is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games after three or more SU conference losses, while Boise State is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight home games as a favorite in the -8.5 to -11.5 points range. This spread is just too large considering all of these factors listed above.

10* DESTRUCTION on New Mexico.

The set-up: Cal is jsut 11-15, while Washington is only 12-15. The Huskies though play with revenge here after falling 61-58 in OT at Cal earlier in the year. The Golden Bears broke a four-game slide with their first road win of the year last time out in beating Washignton State, but I think a predictable letdown is inevitable here vs. this revenge minded home side. These team's offensive and defensive numbers are similar (poor), but note that the Huskies are still 9-6 at home this year and they're two Pac 12 victories have also been on their own floor.

The pick: Finally note that Cal is just 1-5 ATS this year as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. poor offensive teams which average 64 points or less per contest. I think the hungrier home side keeps the foot on the gas until the final horn. Lay the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Washington.

The set-up: After back-to-back losses, the Dukes will once again be pushed from start to finish vs. the high-flying Dayton Flyers. Duquesne most recently fell 70-67 at home to George Washington. Dayton enters off a 66-61 win over VCU, it's 15th straight victory. Dayton had to hold on for dear life the first time these team's met, eventually pulling away for a 73-69 road win on January 29th. 

The pick: Despite some recent lower-scoring games of late for each team, note that the Dukes still average 70.8 PPG, while the Flyers average 80.6. Duquesne has now seen the total go over the number in three of its last four as an underdog, while Dayton has seen the total soar over in seven of its last ten as a home favorite. I'm banking on a shootout, not a chess match.

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Duquesne/Dayton.

The set-up: The defending National Champs are going to be in a dog-fight today in my opinion. And in a contest which I believe is decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. UVA has won three straight after an 80-73 loss to Louisville earlier in the month. UVA's defense remains elite this year, holding opponents to just 52.6 PPG, but it's offense has been putrid in averaging only 57.6 PPG. 

The pick: Pittsburgh will need a miracle to make it into the NCAA tournament, but the Panthers are still gunning for a spot in the NIT. Off three straight losses, I think Pittsburgh hangs tough here at home. Overall Pitt averages 65.9 PPG and it allows 64.6. Additionally note that UVA is just 6-14 ATS as the favorite this year, while Pittsburgh is a stellar 5-1 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per game. Grab the points.

10* UNDERDOG BLOOD-BATH on Pittsburgh.

The set-up: This is a big game for these middle of the pack A 10 teams. VCU is 17-9 and Saint Louis is 18-8. VCU is on the bubble now after four straight losses, meaning that every contest from here on out is essentially 'do or die.' VCU though comes in off two tight losses vs. two really good teams in Richmond and Dayton, holding the high-flying Flyers to just 66 points. The Billikens come in with zero momentum as well after losing three of their last four. Saint Louis recently suffered a big blow when guard Gibson Jimerson was lost to a foot injury. 

The pick: VCU is also an awesome 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as a road favorite or pick (including 3-1 ATS this year), while Saint Louis is already a poor 2-5 ATS in its last seven after playing a road game. The Rams' recent losing streak can be attributed to the level of their competition of late. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish.

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on VCU.

The set-up: Arizona has won seven of its last nine. Oregon State is on the "bubble" for an NCAA berth. The Beavers enter relatively hot after winning three of their last five. The Beavers are going to have their hands full with this revenge minded home side though in my opinion. Oregon STate averages 72.2 PPG and it allows 67. The Wildcats are 8-4 in league play and they'll absolutely be out to avenge that earlier loss to the Beavers. Overall Arizona averages 78 PPG and it allows 65.1.

The pick: Oregon State has also already seen the total go over the number in five of seven this year as the underdog and in six of eight on the road, while Arizona has seen the total fly above the posted number in three of four in trying try revenge a loss vs. an opponent which scored 75 points or more. Expect a faster-paced and ultimatley higher-scoring "shootout" here.

10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the OVER Oregon State/Arizona.

The set-up: Both teams still have an outside shot at The Tournament. Belmont comes in off a 101-84 win over Jacksonville State, but after six straight wins, I believe the visiting side does indeed get caught "looking past" its opponent in some small way today. Morehead State is clearly the "hungrier" team after three straight losses. Morehead State also plays with revenge here. 

The pick: Note as well that Belmont is already a poor 4-7 ATS this year as a road favorite or pick and just 1-4 ATS in its last five after two straight covers as a double digit favorite, while Morehead State is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a conference rival. I'm banking on the hungier, revenge-minded home side to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with teh ample points it's been afforded in this one.

10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST is Morehead State.

The set-up: Tulane has lost nine in a row. The Mustangs will have to be wary not to get "trapped" here. SMU entes 18-6 overall and 8-4 in conference play. but after a 73-72 OT win in Houston, I'm expecting a more methodical pace from the visiting side tonight. Last time out the Green Wave were smoked 82-57 by Wichita State and I have a hard time seeing them mustering much of an offensive attack tonight either. 

The pick: Additionally note that SMU has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Tulane has seen the total stay under the number in ten of its last 13 after a loss by 15 points or more. This number is definitely high in my opinion.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER SMU/Tulane.

The set-up: After four straight victories, I think that Richmond gets caught looking past lowly George Mason, which is just 3-9 in league play so far. George Mason plays with revenge here though after the Spiders won 97-87 on the road in mid January. The Patriots average 68.2 PPG and the Spiders average 75.1. The Patriots still have an outside shot at the NCAA Tournament, but it'll depend on how they close out the rest of the way and what they do in the Conference tournament. One game at a time obviously.

The pick: George Mason is also a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the +12.5 to +15 points range, while Richmond is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two straight wins by ten points or more. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest.

8* MID-MAJOR MAULING on George Mason.

The set-up: The Citadel won't be lacking for motivation here, as it's just 6-19 overall and winless in conference play. I had a pick on St. Joe's last night and it also was winless in conference action, until its monster come from behind upset outright victory. While I don't expect anything as dramatic as that in this one, everything does point to the home side keeping it competitive throughout in my opinion. Chattanooga is 7-7 in the Southern Conference. Note that Chattanooga averages 72 PPG, while the Citadel averages 76. 

The pick: Additionally I'll point out that Chattanooga is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after successfully covering the spread in three or more straight outings, while The Citadel is 6-2 ATS this season revenging a loss vs. an opponent which scored 85 points or more. Grab the points, expecting a close battle.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on The Citadel.

The set-up: The Mountaineers are tied for sixth in the confernce with a 6-6 record, while Oklahoma State is 3-9. WVU beat the Cowboys 55-41 on the road, but I'm expecting a much tighter, and ultimatley higher-scoring affair this time around. OKS is playing its best ball of the year and I look for that momentum to get carried over. OKS opened Big 12 play by going 0-8, but it's since won three of its last four, including a 73-70 victory over No. 24 Texas Tech on Saturday. Overall Oklahoma State averages 67.2 PPG and it allow 65.9. WVU will also be especially motivated here after three straight low-scoring losses. All to Top 3 teams. 

The pick: Oklahoma State has also seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 after a win by six points or less, while WVU has seen the total fly over the number in 12 of 18 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. This one has the feel of a run and gun shootout, rather than a slower paced "chess match."

9* O/U BLOWOUT DESTRUCTION on the OVER OKS/WVU.

The set-up: Vandy is just 3-7 the last ten in this series, but I think the "under the radar" visiting side does enough to get the comfortable cover once it's all said and done. Saban Lee averages 21 PPG for the Commodores, who average a very respectable 69 points per game on the road. Vanderbilt's poor defense catches a break here as well facing the slower paced Vols, who average only 66 PPG at home this season. 

The pick: Note as well that Vanderbilt is 7-3 ATS In its last ten as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Tennessee is only 5-8 ATS this year as a home favorite. I think Vanderbilt's offense mathches pace and while I'm not going to call for the outright upset, everything points to a competitive battle. Grab the points.

9* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on Vanderbilt.

The set-up: Davidson is 13-11 overall, 7-5 in conference play and just 4-6 as the road team. It looks poised for a letdown here in my estimation after its big 93-64 win over St. Bonaventure. I think the Wildcats get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. The Hawks are 4-21 overall, 0-12 in league play and 2-9 at home. Most recently St. Joe's fell to Rhode Island 73-55. 

The pick: Davidson is just 4-7 ATS on the road this year and it's 0-2 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games. St. Joe's on the other hand is already 4-1 ATS this year after three straight losses by ten points or more. I admit the Hawks are horrible, but Davidson has been poor as well. This sets up as a bit of a mental letdown spot for the visitors, while the home side is still desperate to post its first conference victory of the year. I'm grabbing the points.

8* ATS BLOOD-BATH on St. Joseph's.

The set-up: Both teams should be in the NCAA Tournament. The Illini though come in as the "hungrier" team though after a loss to Rutgers last time out. Illinois has a balanced attack and it's ranked as the 32nd best tam according to KenPom. Penn State beat Northwestern 77-61 last time out, its eighth straight win. KenPom has the Nittany Lions ranked as the 11th best team in the Nation, but I think the home side will have its hands full with this determined visiting side.

The pick: Illinois is also already 2-0 ATS this year off an embarrassing road loss in which it scored less than 60 points in and 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. good offensvie teams which score 77 plus points per contest. I'm banking on the hungry visiting side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

10* 'COACH'S CORNER' on Illinois.

The set-up: Kansas has won ten straight and it sits just one game back of 12-0 Baylor for the lead. The Jayhawks are at the Bears in their next game and I think that sets this one up as a bit of a "trap" for the home side. Note that Iowa State also plays with revenge after losing 79-53 at home to the Jayhawks earlier in the year. The Cyclones additionally come in "under the radar" after winning two of their last three. That includes their best offensive performance of the year in their 81-52 win over Texas. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up well for the Cyclones. Kansas can't afford to lose any ground on Baylor, but I believe that the conditions are all in place to classify this as a "trap" for the home side. 

The pick: Note as well that Iowa State is 3-1 ATS in its last four in revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent, while Kansas is already 0-4 ATS this year as a home favorite in the 12.5 to 18 points range. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State. 

The set-up: Both teams have been playing to higher-scoring affairs of late, but I think today's competitive battle will fall under the number once it's all said and done. Memphis comes in hungry, as a three-game win streak has been followed by back-to-back losses. Overall the Tigers average 74.3 PPG. UConn's two-game win streak was snapped by a last second loss to SMU last time out and I think the Huskies are still collectively "caught up" on that heartbreaker. 

The pick: Note as well that Memphis has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 Conference road games after back-to-back SU losses, while UConn has seen the total dip below in nine of its last 13 home games following a SU conference setback. I expect a war from start to finish. This number is a tad high.

10* AAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Memphis/Connecticut.

The set-up: Villanova won't want to take the foot off the gas now in this dangerous non-conference road matchup on Sunday afternoon. The Wildcats escaped most recently with a slim 72-71 win over Marquette on Wednesday, while the Owls nudged past Tulane 72-68. Villanova's five starters all average in double figures; overall the Wildcats average 73.5 PPG. Temple has just two players averaging in double figures and the Owls average 69.3 PPG. 

The pick: Temple's been great at home of late, but now the level of competition gets raised dramatically. Villanova's depth is going to be the difference for me today, as I expect the Wildcats to come in focussed on the task at hand after their most recent "close call." Lay the points.

10* SUPER-DESTRUCTION on Villanova.

The set-up: Mississippi State won the first meeting at home 74-70, but I expect a much tighter and lower-scoring affair this time around. Both teams are hungry for victories. Mississippi State plays its second straight on the road, as the Bulldogs enter off a poor 83-58 setback to Ole Miss. The struggling Razoracks can empathize, as they've lost three in a row, including an 82-61 loss to Tennessee last time out. Both teams are clearly on the bubble as far as the tournament is concerned. Both are struggling offensively as well. From a situational stand point, I definitely think this one sets up as a defensive affair, rather than a run-and-gun shootout.

The pick: Both teams are conceding less than 67 PPG this year. Arkansas averages only 65 PPG and Mississippi State averages 69.7. The numbers also don't match up here as far as I'm concerned. When taking into account all of the above info, I definitely believe this number is much too high.

10* SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Mississippi State/Arkansas.

The set-up: Both teams will be equally as "hungry" here. Both teams come in off losses. Syracuse is in a two-way tie for fifth place and so far its 4-2 on the road this year. Overall the Orange average 74 PPG and they allow 68.3. The Seminoles are coming in off a loss to Duke. FSU averages 75.1 PPG and it allows 65.1. 

The pick: I'll point out though that Syracuse is 7-3 ATS in its last ten conference road games as an underdog in the 8.5 to 11.5 points range, while FSU is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games following a SU loss and favored by 8.5 points or more. I like the Orange to fight until the end. Grab the points.

10* VERY EARLY NATIONAL TV BLOCKBUSTER on Syracuse.

The set-up: The IUPUI Jags have lost four in a row and reside in the basement of the Horizon League, while NKU has won four straight and is looking to lock down the top spot in the conference. The Jags are in a tough conference no doubt, coming in averaging 70 PPG. Northern Kentucky is vastly superior on both ends of the court, but note that it allows just 65 PPG, including ranking 12th in 3-point percentage allowed at under 29 percent.

The pick: In fact the Norse have allowed just 70 or more points just once during their recent four-game win streak. The Jags only allow 71 PPG this year, so when you add it all up, I do indeed believe that this total is much too high. 

9* BLOWOUT TOTAL on the UNDER IUPUI/Northern Kentucky.

The set-up: Both team's are 5-1 and at the top of the Ivy League Standings. Suffice it to say, I expect an all out war from start to finish, where every possession is contested. After falling to Harvard, Yale bounced back to crush Dartmouth by 18 at home in its latest action, while Princeton bounced back from a loss to Cornell to beat Columbia by seven. Yale has dominated this series of late, including in Princeton. The home side has the added motivation of revenge here as well. The Bulldogs rank in the Top 40 in the nation in allowing just 64 PPG. Not to be outdone, the Tigers have conceded just 65 points or less in six of their last eight overall. 

The pick: Princeton has seen the total go under in four of its last five home games overall, allowing just 62 points in those contests. If the Tigers have any hopes of pulling off the upset today, clearly it'll have to be because of a strong defensive performance. The stage is set for an all out war from start to finish.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Yale/Princeton.

The set-up: This is a big game, as both teams are tied for eighth spot with a 5-7 record in the MAAC. The Stags play with revenge today after the Red Foxes picked up the 70-58 road win, snapping an 11 game losing streak for Marist at the time. Both teams season averages are comparable. They're bad. Marist's recent/current form is better, but I think that swings the value the other way here. Fairfield is the hungrier/more desperate team and it's also playing with revenge. 

The pick: And note that Fairfield is 10-5 ATS as an underdog this year and 4-0 ATS this season revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Marist is 0-2 ATS this year as a favorite and just 2-3 ATS this season off an upset win as an underdog. Clearly the outright is possible, but let's grab the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Fairfield.

The set-up: Memphis has the better overall record at 17-6, but it's 6-4 ACC record sits behind 15-8 Cincinnati's record of 8-3. The Bearcats fell 60-49 at Memphis earlier in the year, making "revenge" a significant factor working in their favor tonight. Memphis averages 73.7 PPG and it allows 64.1, while Cincinnati averages 72.5 PPG and it allows 65.7. 

The pick: Note though that Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in its last six at home, while Memphis is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four following three or more straight home games. The Bearcats have gotten better as the season has worn on. I like the home side to play with aggression tonight on its own floor and to avenge the earlier loss. Lay the points.

9* BLOWOUT DESTRUCTION on Cincinnati.

The set-up: Wichita State opened the season 15-1, but it's since lost five of its last seven. It beat UCF 89-79 at home earlier in the year, but it didn't cover the 11.5 point spread. The UCF Knights have won two in a row, but I think they'll have their hands full here vs. the No. 45 Shockers who average 72.3 PPG, and allow 64.5. UCF averages 68.3 PPG and it allows 66.7. 

The pick: Note though that the Shockers are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three after three or more consecutive losses, while UCF is only 3-7 ATS at home this year and just 1-2 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. This is a big game for the Shockers and I look for them to finally get back on track in this favorable matchup. Lay the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Wichita State.

The set-up: Bucknell plays with revenge here after Navy scored the win on its home floor earlier in the season. In that game Navy was led by 20 points from Cam Davis, while Bucknell was paced by 18 from John Meeks. The Bison have dropped four straight, so they definitely won't be lacking for motiation here. Navy leads the Patriot League in scoring defense, but I expect teh visitors to push the pace from start to finish. 

The pick: Additionally note that Bucknell has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 11 after four or more straight conference setbacks, while Navy has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last eight home games where the total is set between 129.5 and 133 points. This number is a tad low.

10* OFFENSIVE EXPLOSION on the OVER Bucknell/Navy.

The set-up: The Musketeers won their third game in a row by beating Providence 64-58, but I think they'll have their hands full with this hungry home side this evening. Butler won't be lacking for motivation after a poor 76-57 loss to Marquette in its latest action. Overall Xavier is averaging 71.3 PPG, while the Bulldogs average 68.9. The Bulldogs though are ranked 48th in field goal percentage in the nation. 

The pick: The Musketeers are also only 3-4 ATS on the road, including 0-2 ATS as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range, while Butler is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite or pick. I think the "hungrier" home side rises up to the challenge and gets back no track with a conviving win. Lay the points.

10* BLOCKBUSTER on Butler.

The set-up: Notre Dame comes in off a four-point road win over Clemson to improve to 15-8 on the year and 6-6 in league play, but I believe it'll take a step back here vs. the defensive-minded Cavaliers. Virginia comes in highly motivated after a seven point loss to Louisville in its last action, falling to 15-7 overall and 7-5 in conference play. Notre Dame averages 76.2 PPG and it allows 68.4. UVA averages 56.8 PPG and it allows only 51.7. 

The pick: As good as the Irish have looked of late, note that they're still just 3-4 ATS as an underdog this year and just 1-3 ATS after allowing 60 points or less. And note that UVA has performed well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS in its last five off a road loss. I believe the hungrier home side's suffocating defensive play is the difference maker in this one. Lay the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Virginia. 

The set-up: Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe that trend ends tonight. The NIU Huskies are 15-9 overall and 8-3 in league play, while the Ball State Cardinals are 13-10 overall and 6-4 in the MAC. NIU comes in off a 57-54 win over Kent State, while Ball State will be eager to return to the winners cirlce after a 68-64 loss to WMU last time out. 

The pick: I'll point out though that NIU has seen the total go over the number in three of four this year after playing two straight games as the underdog, while Ball State has seen the total go over the number in two of its last three off an upset loss as a favorite. As mentioned off the top, neither team has played to many "overs," this year, but that's just driven this total well below where it really should be set in my opinion. This number is indeed a little low, play the over.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Northern Illinois/Ball State. 

The set-up: The Seminoles come in at 20-3 and off a 99-81 win over Miami, while Duke is 20-3, barely holding on for a 98-96 win over UNC on the road in OT last time out. While each team played to a high-scoring affair last time out, I think each doubles down defensively in this high-profile, nationally televised game on Monday night. FSU will be looking to clean up its play, as despite winning last time out, it did go on to commit 19 turnovers. Duke had its hands full as well in its win, as it trailed by 9 at half time. 

The pick: Situationally I think this one sets up as more of a defensive affair, but also note that FSU has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Duke has seen the total fall under the number in three of its last four after two no-covers where the team won SU as a favorite. This number is a little high.

10* PLAY ON THE UNDER FSU/Duke.

The set-up: Northwestern comes in focussed after having a week off to absorb its one point loss to Purdue last weekend. This is the first time these teams have played this year, but last season they split, each winning on the road. Note that the Wildcats are 4-1 all time at the RAC. This is the start of four games in ten days for Northwestern, so getting out on the "right foot" of a journey like this always paramount and with a week off to prepare, I expect NW to keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. Rutgers returns home after a two-game trip. The Scarlet Knights are 15-0 at home so far this year. Note though that NU has suffered four conference defeats this season by four points or less. 

The pick: Note as well that NW is 6-3 ATS in its last nine road games when playing with six or more days rest and as a double-digit underdog, while Rutgers is only 4-5 ATS in its last nine home games as a favorite in the -10 to -13.5 points range. I think the home side comes in complacent and I believe the visitors come in hungry. Probably no outright, but it'll be close. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Northwestern.

The set-up: Cornell jumped out to an early lead yesterday in its 73-62 win over Princeton and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here. Pennsvylvania comes in off a 76-67 victory at Columbia, but I believe it'll have a much tighter fight on its hands today vs. the suddenly confident Big Red team. Cornell now faces former Big Red head coach Steve Donahue today, looking to avenge the fact that they've dropped 13 of the last 14 in this series. 

The pick: Note that Penn is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten when coming off a five-points or greater victory and playing with zero days rest, while Cornell is 8-2 ATS in its last ten home games playing on no rest and off a win of ten points or more. I like the home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the final moments. Grab the points.

8* BEST OF BEST on Cornell.

The set-up: Both teams come in off losses and I believe this will help in creating a very tightly checked/competitive under on Saturday afternoon. Arkansas comes in off a 79-76 OT loss to Auburn, while Missouri fell 68-51 to Texas A&M. Overall though Arkansas averages 74.5 PPG and it allows 65.3, while Missouri averages 65.3 PPG, while allowing 63.5. 

The pick: Note as well that Arkansas has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 road games following an OT loss in which it allowed 78 points or more in, while Missouri has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 12 home after scoring 53 points or less in its previous contest. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 

10* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Arkansas/Missouri.

The set-up: Harvard is 13-6 and it's looking to bounce back after losing its last two games by a combined four points. Most recently The Crimson fell to Princeton, 70-69. Harvard is still 6-3 on the road though and I think it will in fact use the last two losses as motivation to once again take this contest down to the wire. Outright victory? Clearly very possible. But in a game which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. Yale is 7-0 at home and 14-4 ATS this year. The Bulldogs are no pushovers, but I think that's just added incentive for The Crimson to "come to play" today. 

The pick: Note as well that Harvard is 20-4 ATS in its last 24 as an underdog, including 2-0 ATS this year, while Yale is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 off a home vs. a conference rival, including 0-2 ATS this season. This one has "nail biter" written all over it, so grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Harvard.

The set-up: I think the second place Cougars get caught looking past their lowly opponent tonight. Now, I'm not calling for the outright upset or anything, but I'm definitely expecting a much tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Yes, BYU is 6-3 in WCC action and Portland is just 9-15 overall and 1-7 in league play, but I believe the home side "comes to play" tonight. BYU comes in off a monumental 81-79 win over Saint Mary's last time out, which sets it up for a classic "letdown" here in my opinion. Portland most recently fell 85-61 to Santa Clara. 

The pick: Note though that BYU is just 1-3 ATS this season already as a road favorite or pick and just 9-19 ATS in its last 28 off a win vs. a conference rival, while Portland is already 3-0 ATS this season in revenging a loss in which the opponent scored 85 points or more in. Look for the Pilots to play with passion as they try to avenge the earlier setback and expect the visitors to leave the back door open just enough for home side to comfortably sneak in through once it's all said and done.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Portland.

The set-up: Weber State is the "hungrier" team here in my opinion. The Wildcats are 8-14 overall and 4-7 in Big Sky play. Weber State beat Southern Utah last Thursday, and then fell to Northern Colorado on the weekend. Sacramento State is 11-9 overall, but it's also only just 4-7 in league action. The Hornets come in with zero momentum as well, as they've lost three straight, most recently a 67-53 setback to Idaho on Monday. Weber State also plays with the added incentive of "revenge" tonight after it fell 71-57 in Sacramento back on January 11th. 

The pick: Sacramento State is also a poor 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a road dog of three points or less (including 0-2 ATS this season), while Weber State is already 4-1 ATS this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. Lay the short points, expect a big rout.

8* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on Weber State.

The set-up: Am I predicting an outright upset here? Nope. But I do think that the "hungrier" team will come in "under the radar" here and keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Mountaineers are 17-4 overall and 5-3 in league play, while Iowa State enters having lost five of its last six (9-12 overall.) Note that the Cyclones aren't the same team that made the NCAA Tournament last year, but they're still averaging 74.7 PPG, while allowing 72.2. WVU averages 73.3 PPG and it allows 61.3. 

The pick: Note though that Iowa State is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 off two straight losses vs. a conference rivals (including 2-0 ATS this season), while WVU is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range (including only 1-2 ATS this year.) No outright, but closer than expected.

9* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Iowa State.

The set-up: Southern Illinois has won five straight and is 7-3 in the Missouri Valley Conference, but I believe it'll finally have a letdown here vs. this hungry home side. Evansville is desperate beyond believe after opening conference play by going 0-10, most recently falling 80-68 to Northern Iowa. The Salukis are just 10-12 overall though and if not now, when for the Purple Aces? The Salukis average 63.3 points and it allows 60.8. Evansville averages 69.2 PPG and it allows 75.2. Yes, on paer this one favors SIU, but I think the visitors finally get caught looking past their opponent today. 

The pick: Note as well that SOuthern Illinois is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a road win, while Evansville is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 80 points or more (including 4-2 ATS this season.) I'm primarily a "situational" handicapper and this one falls into several of my systems. Clearly the outright win isn't out of the question, but in the end I'll recommend to grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Evansville.

The set-up: Southern Illinois has won five straight and is 7-3 in the Missouri Valley Conference, but I believe it'll finally have a letdown here vs. this hungry home side. Evansville is desperate beyond believe after opening conference play by going 0-10, most recently falling 80-68 to Northern Iowa. The Salukis are just 10-12 overall though and if not now, when for the Purple Aces? The Salukis average 63.3 points and it allows 60.8. Evansville averages 69.2 PPG and it allows 75.2. Yes, on paer this one favors SIU, but I think the visitors finally get caught looking past their opponent today. 

The pick: Note as well that SIU has seen the total go under the number in 24 of its last 35 after playing a road game, while Evansville has seen the total dip under in seven of ten vs. conference opponents already this season. With the home side expected to risk life and limb to get off the 0-10 losing streak, expect a slower-paced battle, where each possession is challenged. This number is a little high.

10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER SIU/Evansville.

The set-up: Duke is is coming off a 97-88 win and cover on the road over Syracuse, but I think it'll have its hands full here vs. this hungry BC side. Boston College is just 7-7 at home, but it comes in off an impressive 71-70 win over UNC and I have no reason not to believe that the Eagles can't carry over that confidence/momentum here. BC is playing its best basketball of the season and it's out to avenge a terrible 88-49 loss to Duke on December 31st. On paper the Blue Devils are clearly the better team. But BC's recent improvement in play, combined with these strong situational factors make the home side the correct call here in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Duke is a poor 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road favorite in teh 12.5 to 18 points range, while BC is a solid 5-2 ATS this season revenging a loss vs. an opponent which scored 75 points or more in. I'm grabbing the points and expecting an all out battle until the end.

10* DESTRUCTION on Boston College.

The set-up: I think the hungry 5-15 Idaho Vandals sneak in under the radar here vs. the 11-8 Sacramento State Hornets. Both teams come in on losing streaks. Most recently Sacramento State fell 59-54 to Eastern Washington. Idaho lost 77-72 on the road to Northern Arizona. 

The pick: Note that the Hornets are a poor 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games after scoring 55 points or less in their previous contest, while the Vandals are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 off a SU loss. Grab the points and expect an all out war until the final horn!

9* DESTRUCTION on Idaho.

The set-up: While the outright win is obviously not out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The Bears hold a one game lead over Kansas with a perfect 8-0 conference record. K-State is only 2-6 in league play and it's to pull off the upset here. Baylor is 5-0 on the road and its been exceptional defensively, but the Bears look poised for a mental letdown here in my opinion, with bottom feeder Oklahoma State up next, BU has hit a very "vanilla" part of its schedule. 

The pick: K-State has played its best basketball of the year at home, going 8-4 at Bramlage Coliseum thus far. Additionally note that K-State is still a sharp 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a road loss. I'm grabbing the points and expecting an all out war until the final horn. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on K-State.

The set-up: I think Dayton is going to get caught "looking past" its lowly opponent today. Dayton has won ten in a row, but the Rams aren't going to roll over here. Most recently Fordham fell 62-52 to St. Bonaventure. Dayton comes off a 73-69 win over Duquesne. On paper, clearly the Flyers are the better team, but everything points to this being a letdown/trap in my opinion. 

The pick: Note that Fordham is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 conference road games as an underdog in the +23.5 to +27.5 points range, while Dayton is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine conference home games following a nine games or more SU unbeaten streak. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a solid cover.

10* play on Fordham.

The set-up: Troy got the better of Georgia State at home 75-65 two weeks ago. The Trojans though are in bounce back mode after an 86-57 loss to Georgia Southern. The Panthers' lone loss in their last five was against the Trojans. I think the "revenge" factor gets thrown out the window here, as Troy is still the "hungrier" team. 

The pick: Overall the Trojans have three victories over top five teams in the conference. Additionally note that Troy is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 conference road games as a double-digit underdog, while Georgia State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge a double-digit same season road loss. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

8* play on Troy.

The set-up: The Rebels are hungry here. After breaking a six-game slide, they then lost in double OT at home to Auburn. LSU though comes in complacent here in my opinion, as it's won nine in a row, most recently over Alabama. Also note that this is a revenge game, as LSU posted the 80-76 road win in the reverse fixture. 

The pick: Additionally note that Ole Miss is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games as a double digit dog and off an OT home loss, while LSU is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 following a six games or more unbeaten streak. I'm not calling for the outright, but everything points to this one being closer than what this spread would suggest. 

8* play on Mississippi.

The set-up: I think the 14-4 Yale Bulldogs get caught looking past the 6-12 Columbia Lions. Columbia is 1-1 in Conference play after falling to Cornell at home last time out 62-50. Yale comes in complacent here though in my opinion after four straight wins, including starting conference play 2-0. Columbia averages 66.8 PPG and it allows 69.1. Yale averages 75.7 PPG and it allows 62.7. 

The pick: Note though that Columbia is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 off a loss vs. a conference rival, while Yale is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a home favorite in the 12.5 to 18 points range. This is a letdown spot for the Bulldogs in my opinion. Conversely, the Lions will be eager to pull of the upset here and while that likely won't happen, everything points to a more competitive battle than what this spread suggests. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Columbia.

The set-up: I think CSUB comes in under the radar here vs. WAC-leading NMSU. The Runners are 4-2 to start WAC play. NMSU is 6-0 in WAC play. Note though that three of the Aggies last four wins have come by single digits. Teams regularly reserve 

The pick: The Roadrunners posted their second OT win of the season last Thursday by knocking off Utah Valley 58-59. CSUB then lost 86-79 at home to Seattle. I believe the hungry visitors do indeed push the home side to the limit and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright, everything points to this one being a competitive battle until the end. Grab the points.

8* play on Bakersfield.

The set-up: North Dakota State is 14-7 and I think it'll have its hands full tonight vs. the hungry 5-13 Western Illinois Leathernecks. This is a big time revenge game for the desperate home side. The Bison have won 14 of the last 15, including all three meetings last year. 

The pick: Note as well that North Dakota State is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a home win against a conference rival, while WIU is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 revenging a loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, including a sharp 4-1 ATS this year. Expect a battle until the final moments and grab all these points.

10* play on Western Illinois.

The set-up: Marshall won't be lacking for motivation here as it's lost four of its last five. The Herd though are 3-5 in league play and they'll look to get off the schneid in this very winnable game. FIU was on a three-game win streak, but it enters off a humbling 75-49 loss to Charlotte. Marshall averages 74.6 PPG and it allows 72, while FIU averages 79.6 PPG and it allows 73.4. These teams are evenly matched, but I think Marshall is the "hungrier" side and I believe FIU is collectively rattled after its last poor performance. 

The pick: Note as well that Marshall is already 5-2 ATS this year as a road dog or pick, while FIU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a road loss by 20 points or more. I won't be surprised by an outright victory obviously, but in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. 

8* play on Marshall.

The set-up: The Spartans and Wildcats played on December 18th and MSU hung on for the 77-72 win. I expect a similarily hard-fought affair tonight as well. MSU is tied for first in the Big Ten with a 7-2 record, while Northwestern is just 1-8 in league play. Note though that the Wildcats have faced the 17th most difficult schedule in the country according to BPI. Most recently the Wildcats fell 71-59 to the Buckeyes. Overall NW averages 66.3 PPG and it allows 67.6. The Spartans lost 67-63 in Indiana, then bounced back with a 70-52 win over Minnesota. MSU averages 77.1 PPG and it allows 63.2. 

The pick: On paper MSU is the better team, but Northwestern comes in as the much "hungrier" side this evening. Note that none of the Wildcats' eight losses in conference play have come by more than 14 points. Additionally note that NW is 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog of 13 points or more. I believe the home side leaves the back door open just enough for desperate visiting team to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Northwestern.

The set-up: Nebraska is 7-13 and I think it'll have its hands full here with this determined 11-8 Michigan team. After starting 7-0, the Wolverines have gone just 8-4 since. The Wolverines had plenty of turn-over from last season and they've been dealing with injuries, but Nebraska is the perfect opponent to get untracked against. 

The pick: Note that Michigan is 6-0 ATS in its last six after a loss by six points or less and 5-0 ATS in its last five after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games, while Nebraska is already just 4-6 ATS at home this season and only 4-6 ATS this year after covering the spread in its previous game. I'm laying the points and expecting the "hungrier" team to deliver tonight.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Michigan.

The set-up: The Vandals won't be lacking for motivation today as they've dropped four in a row. The Southern Utah Thunderbirds can empathize, as they've lost two of their last three, including a crushing OT loss to EWU last time out. The "revenge factor" comes into play here as well for the home side, who has lost three straight in this series, including two in a row at home. 

The pick: Southern Utah averages 67 PPG and it allows 64. The Vandals have a stout defense as well which holds the opposition to just under 38 percent shooting on the year. Southern Utah is just 4-5 ATS this season as a favorite, while Idaho is 9-7 ATS as an underdog. In a contest which I envision being decided late, I'm grabbing as many points as I can.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Idaho.

The set-up: I think 7-11 Fordham sneaks in under the radar here and finds a way to keep this one competitive vs. 14-5 St. Louis. The Rams come in with momentum as well, as they broke a five-game slide with a win over George Washington last time out. Saint Louis however enters suscepitble after two straight losses in my opinion. The Rams have struggled offensively this year, but the defense has been sharp in allowing only 61 PPG. The Billikens allow 66. And note that over its last four games Saint Louis has averaged just 66 PPG. 

The pick: Additionally note that the Billikens are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU loss, while Fordham is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games following a SU/ATS win/cover. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Fordham.

The set-up: Two teams hungry for a win are going to push each other from start to finish in my opinion and ultimately I believe that this frenetic pace will help in pushing this total well above the posted number. Washington is 12-8 and Colorado is 15-4. The Huskies come to town off two straight losses, but coming by a a combined four points, most recently falling 67-66 to Utah. Overall the Huskies are averaging 70.4 PPG and they're allowing 62.8. The Buffaloes have won three of four. Overall they average 70.4 PPG and they allow 61.7. 

The pick: Note though that Washington has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 11 road games after back-to-back losses, while Colorado has seen the total fly over in six of its last seven after having won three out of its last four SU. On paper this looks like it would be a defensive affair, but I believe these Pac 12 contendors push the tempo. THis is a very low total and I believe it flies over sooner, rather than later. Play the over.

10* PAC-12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the OVER Huskies/Buffalos.

The set-up: The Citadel Bulldogs return home to start a two-game home stand. The Citadel is 54-47 all time vs. the Paladins in Charleston. The Citadel play with revenge here as well after Furman took both games last year. Furman is the better team on paper, but after its win over Samford, I think it gets caught looking past its lowly opponent tonight. 

The pick: Also note that Furman is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight on the road and off a victory and as a favorite of ten points or more, while Citadel is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as a home dog in the ten to 15.5 points range and off a loss. Revenge is a dish best served cold. Grab the points.

10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST on Citadel.

The set-up: Yale is 13-4 and its on the road to take on a hungry 7-7 Brown Bears team. Brown plays with revenge here, as it fell at Yale in mid January by a score of 70-56. Yale comes in off an 89-75 road win at Howard, but I think the Bulldogs will have their hands full tonight. This is a great situational play in my opinion, as Brown has had an extended period off, having not played since the loss at Yale. 

The pick: On paper Yale has the advantage, but note that it's just 1-3 ATS in its last four after playing a game as a road favorite, while Brown is 4-2 ATS in its last six revenging a road loss of ten points or more and 4-1 ATS this season after a loss by ten points or more. I think the outright upset is definitely possible, but in the end I'm going to grab the points.

10* ANNIHILATOR on Brown.

The set-up: FIU is 13-6 and after two straight victories, I think it comes in a tiny bit complacnet here vs. 7-12 ODU, which enters off two straight losses. FIU plays at a fast pace, averaging 81 PPG, but its defense is horrible. The Monarchs are coming off a tough 66-62 loss to Charlotte. ODU's defense has been fantastic though, ranked 42nd in the league overall. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up nicely for the home side. 

The pick: Note as well that the Monarchs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five at home, while the Panthers just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a road dog after back-to-back victories. I'm laying the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Old Dominion.

The set-up: The Marist Red Foxes are after their second straight victory after getting the better of Iona 83-73. Matt Herasme had 17 points and 11 boards in the victory. It was a break out game for Marist, as it set season highs for field goal percentage, points scored, three-pointers made, three-point percentage, assists, rebounds and free throws made. The Manhattan Jaspers had won four of five to open league play before then falling 65-58 to Monmouth on Saturday. 

The pick: Manhattan is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after playing two straight home games (including 0-2 ATS this year), while Marist is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 80 points or more in its previous game. The Red Foxes come in off an inspiring win and I look for them to carry that momentum over here. That said, grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Marist.

The set-up: Akron is 4-1 ATS in its last five, but it comes to town off a ten-point home loss to Toledo last time out. Miami Ohio comes in hungrier here though after dropping four of its last five, including falling by nine at Ball State last time out. These two teams are always competitive. Miami Ohio though plays with revenge here as Akron has taken the last two between the schools, both SU and ATS. 

The pick: But note that Miami Ohio is was gone 4-1 SU at home the last five in this series, including 5-0 ATS. Akron is the better team on paper, but Miami Ohio is the hungrier and more desperate revenge-minded team on the floor. Grab the points.

8* play on Miami Ohio.

The set-up: I like the home side to pull off the upset here. However, I'm going to recommend to grab the points instead of playing on the money line. The Shockers have suddenly lost back-to-back games and I think the hungry Bulls will take advantage of this now reeling visiting side. USF won't be lacking for motivation here either as it enters off a 55-54 road loss vs. UCF. Note that USF won this game at home last year by a score of 54-41. The Bulls struggle offensively, but they make up for it on the defensive end. 

The pick: Note as well that USF is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Wichita State is just 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 as a road favorite. South Florida's last three losses have come by a combined eight points. The stage is set for the outright, but as stated off the top, I'm grabbing the points.

8* play on USF.

The set-up: This game will be broadcast nationally on Fox Sports 1 and I'm expecting an all out war. The Terps are 14-4, but I believe they'll have a fight on their hands today. In fact note, Maryland is 0-4 in true road games this year. The Terps have not let an opponent exceed 70 points in league play so far, but they come in averaging just 71.2 PPG. Northwestern is just 6-11 and it'll have a big opportunity to snap its frustration with a quality win this evening. Easier said than done, but note that the Wildcats do in fact have two wins over Top 100 teams and six of their last seven losses have been by single digits. Northwestern's offense catches a break today facing the slower paced Terrapins.

The pick: Maryland is 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite (including 0-3 ATS this year), while Northwestern is 8-3 ATS this season as an underdog. This one has "nail-biter" written all over it, so grab the points.

10* play on Northwestern.

The set-up: Charlotte is 10-6, but it comes in off an 80-63 loss to WKU. A game vs. 6-12 ODU sets up as a look-ahead/let-down spot for the 49ers though in my opinion. And ODU definitely won't be lacking for motivation here after it fell 68-67 to Marshall last time out. 

The pick: Note as well that Charlotte is a terrible 11-19 ATS in its last 30 as a road dog (including only 2-3 ATS this season), while ODU is a strong 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home favorite. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Old Dominion.

The set-up: I think 6-11 Illinois State is the "hungrier" team here. Clearly the outright win isn't out of the question with a spread like this, but I'm going to grab the points in the end. Most recently Illinois State fell 84-74 to Drake to fall to 1-4 in Conference play. Overall the Redbirds average 67.2 PPG and they allow 70.6. Loyola Chicago averages 70 PPG and it allows 61. On paper and as stated above, this one favors the visitors. But I believe the Ramblers come in complacent after two straight wins. 

The pick: Note as well that Loyola Chicago is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten road games following a two games or more unbeaten ATS/SU streak, while Illinois State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games following a loss by ten or more points and as an underdog of four points or less. Everything points to the slight upset, grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Illinois State.

The set-up: Georgia State is 13-6 and it's won three straight. I think it gets caught looking past this desperate Troy home side, which has lost two in a row and five of its last six. Note though that Georgia State is just 4-6 in true road games this season. Georgia State has the better offense, but note that Troy is 5-4 at home. Also note that each team won its home floor in last year's season series. 

The pick: Note as well the Georiga State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following three game SU/ATS unbeaten streak, while Troy is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games after a three-games or more losing streak and as an underdog. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the final moments. 

8* SLAM-DUNK on Troy.

The set-up: Elon comes in under the radar here, but hungry as ever after losing four of its last five games. Most recently the Phoenix fell 63-41 to Drexel. Delaware has lost four of five, most recently falling 77-68 to William and Mary. The Blue Hens are the better team on paper, but I think they get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. 

The pick: Note as well that Delaware is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a favorite and only 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 following a SU loss, while Elon is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss. Grab the points and expect a battle until the end.

9* DESTRUCTION on Elon.

The set-up: After falling to Kansas to open league play, WVU has rattled off thee straight Big 12 victories and it enters at 14-2 overall. K-State comes in as the "hungrier" team though as it's lost nine of its last 12. The Wildcats will be looking to get off the schneid here and earn their first conference victory of the year. The Wildcats are sharp defensively as well, holding the opposition to just 61.8 PPG on average. WVU averages only 72.1 PPG and I believe it'll have its hands full with his now desperate home side. 

The pick: Additionally note that WVU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten conference road games after three or more SU/ATS victories, while K-State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after three or more losses and as an underdog of five points or more. I'm grabbing the points and expecting this contest to be decided in the final moments.

10* CASH-BOMB on Kansas State.

The set-up: I think the 9-6 Rider Broncs get caught lookin past the 4-11 Niagara Purple Eagles tonight. The Broncs come in off a 69-52 win over a weak Marist team, while Niagara enters off a much-needed 70-69 victory over Iona at home in its latest action. Rider has so far averages 72.9 PPG and it's allowed 71.3. The Purple Eagles average 66.6 PPG and they allow 76.2. Clearly on paper Rider is the better team, but I think this one sets up great situationally for the "hungrier" home side. 

The pick: Note as well that Rider is already a poor 2-6 ATS on the road this season and just 3-4 ATS after playing a road game this year, while Niagara is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog. Rider's form on the road hasn't been great and I believe it'll have its hands full. Clearly the outright win isn't out of question, but in the end I'll recommend to grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Niagara.

The set-up: I think 4-13 MTSU comes in under the radar here and keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest vs. 11-6 FAU. The Blue Raiders have lost eight straight, while FAU has gone 9-3 in its last 12. The Owls though come off a poor 81-58 loss to UNT and with 11-6 UAB invading in two nights, I think this definitely sets up as a bit of a "trap" for the home side. On paper, clearly FAU is the better team. But losing wears on teams and I don't think we have to question MTSU's resolve and focus tonight. A great situational play for sure here in my opinion. 

The pick: Additionally note that MTSU is a sharp 7-2 ATS in its last nine off two straight losses against a conference rival, while FAU is already a poor 4-5 ATS this season vs. schools with losing records. No outright, but a 'nail-biter.' Grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Middle Tennessee State.

The set-up: I think 14-2 Duquesne, which enters having won four straight, will get caught "looking past" the lowly 6-9 Fordham Rams. The Dukes most recently held on for a 66-61 win over George Washington. The Rams though have lost four of their last five and they've yet to get a conference victory. Most recently they fell 64-44 to St. Bonaventure. Fordham has two players averaging in double figures and Duquesne has three. On paper this one favors the Dukes, but with a more difficult 10-5 opponent in the Rhode Island Rams up next, I do indeed belive the home side gets caught looking ahead here as well.  

The pick: The Rams are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five after scoring 65 points or less in four straight games, while the Dukes are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest (including only 1-2 ATS this season.) I'm grabbing the points and expecting a "nail biter."

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Fordham.

The set-up: I'm expecting a lower-scoring battle between the 17-0 SDSU Aztecs and the 5-11 Fresno State Bulldogs. The Bulldog and Aztecs have already played once this season and SDSU won by nine points at home on January 1st. Overall SDSU averages 75.9 PPG, but it's been getting the job done most nights with its amazing defense, which allows just 57 PPG. So that's not the greatest news for Fresno State today, which enters on a four-game losing streak and which averages only 69.6 PPG. The Bulldogs though have been fantastic defensively, allowing just 66.7 PPG. 

The pick: Note as well that SDSU has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 11 after two straight covers as a double-digit favorite, while Fresno State has seen the total dip below the number in three of its last four as a home dog. Everything points to a lower-scoring war between these conference foes.

10* CONF-TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER SDSU/Fresno State.

The set-up: 15-3 Wright STate is at 6-12 Illinois Chicago and I believe that the under the radar home side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Raiders enter off an 80-64 win over IUPUI, while UIC fell 68-52 to UNK last time out. Revenge also comes into play here after Wright State took both games in this serires last year. Overall Wright State averages 81.1 PPG and it allows 72.2. The Flames average 65.4 PPG and they allow 72.2. 

The pick: Wright State though has responded well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 ATS In its last nine home games following a loss in which it posted 55 points or less in. Conversely, Wright State is already a poor 1-4 ATS this season after playing a road game. Expect the Flames to lay everything on the line and while I wouldn't be completely shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. 

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Illinois Chicago. 

The set-up: The Huskies are just 1-2 in conference play and they're coming off a listless 61-55 road loss to Stanford. Cal is 1-1 in league play so far and it'll be looking to build off a win over WSU in its latest action, a victory which snapped a four-game losing streak. Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, but neither will be lacking for motivation in this big Pac 12 matchup on Friday night. Washington averages 72.4 PPG and the Bears average 64.9. Both teams are mediocre at best on the defensive side though and each is desperate for a victory. I believe from a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a "shootout." 

The pick: Note as well that Washington has seen the total soar over the number in 11 of its last 17 road games after a loss in which it scored 55 points or less in, while Cal has seen the total go over the number in seven of its lat ten home games following a conference SU/ATS victory. Everything points to a high-scoring "over."

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Washington/Cal.

The set-up: I think the 10-7 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are going to have their hands full today with the 6-11 UT Arlington Mavericks. The Chanticleers are averaging over 80 PPG in the early going, but they enter off a poor 78-66 loss to Texas State. A lot of their early numbers are skewed because of the level of competition. UTA on the other hand has struggled for most of the season with consistency, but it comes in playing its best basketball of the season and off its biggest win thus far, outlasting App State 66-56. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but CC is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games following a loss in which it allowed 75 points or more inw, while UTA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten home games after a SU win in which it held its opponent to 59 points or less in. This one has "blowout" written all over it. Lay the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on UT Arlington.

The set-up: I think the 2-7 Iona Gaels come in under the radar here and keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest vs. 8-5 Rider. Iona came into this season having won four straight MAAC championships, but it enters this contest having losgin five in a row. The Gaels are 2-5 on the road this season. Coach Tim Cluess has his work cut out for him if he wants to avoid his first losing campaign as boss since he took over ten years ago. Rider has been the better team "on paper" so far this year, but it comes in off its first conference loss (a poor 80-61 setback to Quinnipiac) and I believe it's primed for another letdown here vs. this unbelievably hungry defending league champion. 

The pick: Note as well that the Gaels are 4-1 ATS in their last five after faling to cover six or seven of their last eigth vs. the spread, while Riders is a poor 0-3 ATS this season already following a conference game. I think the "hungrier" team will at the very least, take this one down to the final moments. Grab the points.

10* UNDERDOG ELITE OF THE ELITE on Iona.

The set-up: Liberty returns home to play in front of the home town crowd for the first time in 38 days. This is the Flames first conference home game and I expect them to push the pace from start to finish. The Flames get the job done on the defensive end by allowing only 51.8 PPG, but I believe tonight's contest we'll see the home side open things up. North Alabama enters off an 81-65 loss at home to North Florida, which would go on to expose the Lions perimeter defensive play by nailing 13 3-pointers. 

The pick: Note as well that North Alabama has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last 11 road games following a home loss in which it allowed 80 or more points in, while Liberty has seen the total soar over in 15 of its last 24 after a three games or longer road-trip. This number is a tad low in my opinion.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER North Alabama/Liberty.

The set-up: Nevada has won its last two games, but it's just 1-2 on the road this year. The Wolf Pack are unbeaten in MWC play and while I think they'll keep that record in tact with another victory here, I don't think it's going come easily. SJSU is now six games under .500 after a 79-64 loss on the road to Fresno State. Clearly on paper the Wolf Pack is superior, but I think the hungry home side doesn't go down without a fight here. 

The pick: Additionally note that Nevada is a poor 10-12 ATS in its last 22 off a win by ten points or more vs. a conference rival, while SJSU is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home dog in the 9.5 to 12 points range. Considering the above factors, I'm grabbing the points.

9* PLAY-BOOK on San Jose State.

The set-up: Am I predicting that the 5-11 Wyoming Cowboys are going to upset the 15-0 SDSU Aztecs SU tonight? I'm not. But I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. SDSU is no joke, winning big road games at BYU and Utah State. Most recently the Aztecs faced Utah State on the road and won by a score of 77-68. Overall SDSU averages 75.7 PG and it allows 56.8. The Cowboys come in off a 72-61 loss at Colorado State. Overall Wyoming averages 60.4 PPG and it allows 66.4. 

The pick: I'll point out though that the Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four when playing the role of underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS victory, while SDSU is a poor 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record. I think SDSU wins this game, but I don't think it'll cover this large spread again on the road and in this difficult venue. Grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Wyoming.

The set-up: Valpo is 8-7 and Southern Illinois is 7-8. This is a revenge game for the Salukies, as Valparaiso has won three of the last four between the clubs, including 55-52 last year. Both teams come in off victories, but I don't think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one. Valpo though looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its upset OT win over Evansville last time out. The Salukis cruised to a 67-55 win over Illinois State last time out and four starters put up double-digit in points. I believe the home side carries that momentum over here. 

The pick: Valpo is also a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog, while SIU is already 6-1 ATS at home this season. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Illinois.