Chicago State is one of the very worst teams in the country and I don’t think SF Austin will have any problem handling them in this Wednesday night WAC matchup. 

Look no further than what happened last week, in SF Austin’s last game. They crushed Chicago State, on the road, 81-61 as a 12-point favorite. That was the Lumberjacks’ fourth consecutive win and cover.

Chicago State has lost six in a row and they’ve played another game since the 20-point loss to SF Austin. It was a 13-point loss, also at home, to Sam Houston State. The Cougars are now 2-10 in conference play this season. Even worse, they are 2-12 overall on the road. 

SF Austin is two games off the lead in the WAC, so there’s no reason to expect there to be any kind of “letdown” tonight. If anything, it should be a focused effort as the team looks to make its move up the WAC standings. The remaining schedule looks advantageous.

Meanwhile, Chicago State has had less time to get ready for this rematch and they know anything short of a miracle run in the WAC Tournament means their season is over. For all intents and purposes, it already is over. The Cougars are averaging less than 60 points/game on the road. Lay the points.

Wyoming has won six straight and now finds itself ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in seven seasons. With them laying points on the road tonight, it just feels like the right opportunity to fade the Cowboys.

New Mexico is 8-2 ATS and averaging 78.6 points at home this year. “The Pit” is not an easy place to win at. The Lobos should be well prepared for this game. Over the last 10 days, they’ve only played once and it was a blowout over a non-Division I opponent. (They won 78-46). 

Wyoming’s six-game win streak has featured three two-point victories as well as two others by seven or less. Two of the wins went to overtime. The one blowout came on Saturday, at San Jose State, who is the worst team in the Mountain West.

The Cowboys actually have FIVE two-point victories since January 15th. One of them came against New Mexico on 1/22. That game in Laramie ended up being a 93-91 final. New Mexico never trailed by more than 10 points in that game and shot 53.7% from the field.

Wyoming shot 58% in that first meeting, a number they will not match tonight. With so many close wins recently and a national ranking next to their name, I can see the Cowboys being a little overconfident here. I can see an upset taking place. Grab the points.

Back on January 11th, Texas picked up its largest win over Oklahoma in over a decade. They were 66-52 winners in Austin. I think they’re more than capable of simply winning again here in Norman.

It was just last Monday when the Longhorns upset Kansas 79-76. That was also in Austin. Unfortunately, things didn’t go UT’s way on Saturday when they visited Baylor (lost 80-63). But that was a tough spot, facing a second top 10 opponent in less than a week.

Oklahoma has had a similar last seven days. They picked up a big win at home (over Texas Tech) then lost on the road (at Kansas). Their road loss was by just two points, so it was a better showing than what Texas had. But seriously doubt anyone thinks the Sooners are the better team here. 

In fact, OU has lost eight of its last ten games. 

Texas has the #2 scoring defense in the country, holding teams to just 56.8 points per game. I already mentioned how they held Oklahoma to 52 in the first meeting. Since that game, the Sooners have failed to score 60 three other times. I don’t expect many points from the home team tonight. Go with the road team to win and complete the season sweep. 

Let’s check in on the Patriot League where Colgate is in first place with a 10-2 record. The Raiders are just 14-11 overall, but have won six straight and are looking like the class of this conference right now. They are 8-1 at home this season and host Lafayette on Monday. 

Lafayette is off a rare win on Saturday as they went to Lehigh and pulled a 73-69 upset as four-point underdogs. The Leopards are still just 8-15 overall and 5-7 in conference games, however. They already lost to Colgate once this year, 72-61 as 8.5 point home underdogs. 

Colgate has covered the spread in each of the last four games, three times as a double digit favorite. At home, they are putting up an average of 77.1 points per game while allowing just 59.9. 

So this should be a pretty easy game for the favorite.

UTEP saw its six game win streak snapped on Monday. They lost 66-58 to North Texas, who is the best team in Conference USA this year. At least the Miners left with the cash, covering as 10-point underdogs. It was early in the second half when things fell apart.

The Miners should have no concerns today as they are taking on a Marshall team that has been a disaster to bet on all season. The Thundering Herd are, get this, 4-18 against the spread. 

They are 1-10 ATS in conference play, 2-8 ATS as an underdog and 1-9 ATS on the road. 

It’s the first meeting in almost two years for these two schools. UTEP, already the better team, has a nice edge as they’ve been off for the last five days while Marshall was just in action on Thursday, losing by one at home to FIU, a game they were expected to win by six points.

UTEP only gives up 62.4 points per game at home. Marshall is allowing 80.4 on the road. Lay the points in this one.

Providence brings a 20-2 record and #11 ranking into Saturday’s game vs. DePaul. But I get the sense that the Friars are a little overrated. They did end up blowing out Georgetown on Sunday, 71-52, but were trailing at the half. Before that, it was three straight wins by four points or less.

DePaul is near the bottom of the Big East, only ahead of Georgetown, but the Blue Demons are on a win streak. They’ve won two in a row. One was against G’town, but the other was a win at Xavier where they 13.5 point underdogs.

The season’s first meeting between DePaul and Providence was played on New Year’s Day. Providence won 70-53 as DePaul shot just below 30 percent for the game. Interestingly, the Blue Demons were small favorites to win that day.

I like the underdog’s chance at revenge today, or at least covering the spread. Providence is only 7-7 ATS when favored and 0-1 as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. 

I simply believe that Providence is “living on borrowed time.” As a favorite of this size, which is rare for them, they should be faded.

Considering what they just did to Purdue, Michigan should be able to defeat rival Ohio State Saturday in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines were 82-58 winners over the #3 ranked team in the country (Purdue) on Thursday. That’s about as impressive a performance as I’ve seen in some time.

Michigan has won six of eight with both losses coming on the road. Their home record is 8-2 and they haven’t lost in Ann Arbor since December 11th. 

Ohio State just suffered a shocking loss, 66-64 at Rutgers, where they gave up the game’s final 10 points. It was the Buckeyes’ second loss in three games, both coming on the road. They are just 4-6 outside of Columbus this season, 3-5 when considering only true road games.

With nine losses already, Michigan can’t afford too many more. Right now, most do NOT consider them a NCAA Tourney team. That would be a shame as I think they’re one of the 25 best in the country.

Just going with the Maize and Blue to win Saturday. Play the money line. 

Last Saturday, I went with the Under when Kansas hosted Baylor. The Jayhawks ended up allowing just 59 points in a statement win in Lawrence. Unfortunately, that “statement” was then followed by a 79-76 loss at Texas on Monday.

It’s back inside Allen Fieldhouse for the Jayhawks here. They welcome in Oklahoma, who figures to score more here than Baylor did last week. The Sooners are coming off a big win, beating Texas Tech 70-55 on Wednesday. 

OU has not won in this building since 1983, which is pretty incredible. The fact Kansas is averaging 82.2 points per game at home this season will make it difficult to end the long losing streak.

Both teams had success defending the three-point line in their last games. Even though they lost, Kansas kept Texas to 3 of 20 from behind the line. Oklahoma held Texas Tech to 2 of 17. I don’t think either side will be that good, or lucky, here today.

So while I went Under last week, this time it’s an Over play on Kansas. You can look for more threes to fall and more free throws to be attempted than the last time these teams met. The Jayhawks attempted just six FTs in the 67-64 victory.

Auburn suffered just its second loss of the season on Tuesday. It was at Arkansas on Tuesday, 80-76. The top-ranked Tigers were only 1.5 point favorites for the game, so it can be argued that the oddsmakers “saw that coming.”

Prior to the setback, two of Auburn’s last four wins were by two points or fewer. Since January 11th, they have five single digit victories. I know that a return home (where the team is 12-0 this year) has most on “The Plains” thinking about a bounce back, but this is a pretty big number the Tigers are laying. 

Texas A&M will be both desperate and motivated. The Aggies’ last win was all the way back on January 15th. But of the seven consecutive games that they have lost, the final margin has never been larger than 11 points. Four have been by six points or fewer. So they’ve remained competitive, despite adversity.

Surprisingly, A&M has won five of the previous six matchups in the series! They were also 4-0 in SEC play before this seven-game skid. One of the four wins came against the Arkansas team that just beat Auburn.

The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog. Take the points here. 

Utah State looks to bounce back from a tough two-point defeat at Wyoming. They are hosting Nevada, who is in real trouble now after taking a sixth straight loss on Tuesday. I think it’s fair to say that - in the Mountain West - there’s a pretty severe dropoff after the top six teams. Nevada is not in that top six. Utah State is.

Now the Aggies are technically in seventh in the standings, behind UNLV. But not only do I think they are better than the Rebels, USU is better than several teams ahead of them. The KenPom ratings have them as the second best team in the conference, literally right behind Boise State. The Aggies are 31st in those KenPom ratings. So this is a good team.

They’d won five straight, all by double digits, before losing at Wyoming on Tuesday. That game went to overtime, by the way. What’s most interesting about Utah State’s 6-6 conference record is that - like I said - five of the wins have come by double digits. Four of the losses have been decided by three points or less.

Five of Nevada’s six straight losses have come by 10 or more. One of those was to Utah State, 78-49, and that was at home! In Logan, it’s hard to imagine the Wolf Pack playing well. Lay the points.

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Let’s go with one more on tonight’s College Hoops card. Long Beach State (aka “The Beach”) has to leave the mainland for this game at Hawaii. The Beach is on a nine-game winning streak - straight up and against the spread. But Honolulu is a hard place to win.

Hawaii is back home after losing two in a row on the road. Those losses were by five (at UC Riverside) and three points (UC Davis). Prior to that, the Warriors had won seven in a row while covering the spread all but once. That one ATS failure came as a 13-point favorite. 

At home, Hawaii is 4-0 straight up in conference play. Also, earlier in the year they went to Long Beach and won 72-65 as a one-point underdog. That was the Big West opener for both teams.

LBSU hasn’t lost since, so it feels like this is a “collision course” for the two teams here. CS Fullerton is also 7-2 in Big West play, but a Hawaii win here would have them feeling VERY good about capturing the regular season conference crown.

The Beach were down five to CS Fullerton, at halftime, in their last game. They have not had the halftime lead in any game since 1/27 vs. UC Riverside. I just can’t see them covering such a short number at arguably the toughest place to play in the entire Big West.

UCSB, to me, is much better than its 9-9 SU record. The Gauchos’ problem has been a 1-7 record (SU and ATS) on the road where nearly every loss has been close. Their last time on the road, they lost 65-62 to Hawaii, a game where third leading scorer Ajare Sanni left in the second half with an ankle injury.

Sanni hasn’t played since, but I don’t see him listed on the injury report for tonight. His potential would be a big boon for a team that actually leads the Big West in scoring margin. UCSB did win big in its last game, beating UC San Diego by a score of 84-48. 

While just 2-5 SU in its last seven games, three of those losses for the Gauchos have been by three points or less. This team has been somewhat unlucky so far. But remember they are the reigning Big West Champs and were projected to finish first again, back in November. 

I think that we’re getting a great number here as Cal State Bakersfield has dropped five in a row. 

UCSB shoots the ball well, right at 48.5% for the season. That’s 18th in Division I! The Gauchos have had a double digit lead in three of their four conference losses and the other one was a one-point loss. Lay the short number with the road team.

Towson may be 1.5 games behind UNC Wilmington, but I think they’re the best team in the CAA. Tonight, the Tigers are massive favorites over William & Mary, deservedly so. W&M is a bottom tier team in the Colonial that has won just two times since the New Year. One of four programs to be eligible for every NCAA Tournament and never make one, W&M is going to see that dubious streak extended this year. 

As for the question of whether or not Towson can cover this large spread, I believe that they can. That may sound strange as the Tigers are coming off an embarrassing loss, 58-53 to Northeastern, who is the last place team in the conference. But if you don’t think that will have the Tigers motivated, then guess again.

The loss to Northeastern, who I believe is better than W&M, saw Towson make just 1 of 15 three-point attempts. Obviously, that is what cost them the game. The loss also occurred out on the road. At home, the Tigers are 8-2 this year, the only losses coming to UNCW and a very good San Francisco team. 

William & Mary has lost its last two games by a combined 45 points. This is not just the worst team in the CAA, but one of the bottom 20 teams in the entire country, in my estimation. The Tribe are 347th in offensive efficiency and 304th in defensive efficiency. This has blowout written all over it. 

It remains to be seen how many teams from the Pac 12 are going to make the Big Dance. But barring a stunning run in the Conference Tournament, we know that neither of these teams will be in the field of 68. 

Oregon State was an Elite 8 team last March, which was a stunning run for a team seeded 12th and not favored in any of its final eight games. This season has been much more rough for the Beavers. They are 3-17, including 1-9 in the Pac 12 where they are in last place.

So this is a great spot to take Cal, in my view, even though the Bears aren’t having a good season themselves. But they are better than Oregon State. Back in December, they defeated the Beavers 73-61 as a 2.5-point favorite in Berkeley. 

Cal comes into the rematch on a 10-game losing streak while OSU has lost seven in a row. Something has to give. 

Cal was at least competitive in a loss to Washington State on Saturday. Oregon State’s last three losses have all been by at least 22 points and they have multiple players listed as questionable for tonight. Back the road team.

It wasn’t that long ago that I took UMBC as an underdog, and they came through, pulling the outright win. In fact, it was exactly one week ago. They were +2.5 at Albany and won 59-53.

The Retrievers then returned home on Saturday and beat New Hampshire 88-77, obviously a much more high scoring affair. While Vermont is basically assured of winning the regular season crown in the America East, UMBC now has a great shot at finishing second after winning its last five games.

When I took them last Tuesday, I obviously expected a straight up win. Here, UMBC is favored, but this time they are playing at home and against a Hartford team that should offer little resistance. The Hawks have only won five games all year.

It’s been three straight losses to open February for Hartford as they continue to sink to the bottom of the conference standings. They just played Monday, losing 85-75 to UMass-Lowell. In my view, the quick turnaround puts them at a severe disadvantage. It’s the second road game in three nights.

The Retrievers have captured 8 of the last 10 meetings against the spread. Lay the points.

Pacific is having a dreadful season as the Tigers are 4-16 ATS, the worst such record in the country. It’s about to get worse as they’ll play three times in the next five days. The next two games are against nationally ranked teams, USC and Gonzaga.

Running into USC now is a bad deal for Pacific. The Trojans were lucky not to go 0-2 last week. They had to come from behind to beat Arizona State, then were outclassed by Arizona.

So USC dropped two spots, down to #21 in the latest rankings. But I’m expecting a focused effort here as they step out of conference for what should be a very easy game. This is a team that plays in the Pac 12. They’ll welcome an opportunity to face one of the weakest West Coast Conference teams, at home no less. This was a hastily scheduled game, replacing Oklahoma State on the schedule. The Trojans were supposed to take on the Cowboys back on Dec 21, but COVID had other ideas. Going from facing OK State to Pacific is a big break for the Trojans.

The Trojans’ height will be too much for Pacific. In addition, there’s no way they won’t shoot better here than they did vs. Arizona where they were 34.3% from the field. Drew Peterson was 1 of 13. 

Pacific is 0-9 on the road - straight up and against the spread. Lay the points.

Look for Montana State to roll here. The Bobcats are facing an Idaho State team that is just plain lousy. But what makes this play particularly appetizing is that Idaho State is coming off an upset win. The Bengals stunned Montana, 86-63 as 9.5-point dogs, over the weekend.

Before that, Idaho State had lost five in a row with four of the losses coming by double digits. Montana State is trending in a much different direction. They are on an eight game win streak entering Monday and trail Weber State, who they just beat, by only two in the win column. 

Montana State beat Idaho State by 20 the first time they met. They held the Bengals to 25.5% shooting and 3 of 23 from three-point range. In the second half, they outscored them 37-21. 

Montana State didn’t just beat Weber State over the weekend. They did so by 21 points, on the road. That’s a very impressive performance against the Big Sky leaders. The Bobcats are averaging 78.2 points per game on the road and have covered both times they’ve been a favorite of 9.5 to 12 points.

Idaho State is only averaging 62.9 points per game this season. They have a 4-16 straight up record. My view is that they should be faded off what was easily their best performance in conference play. Lay the points here.

For reasons out of the players’ control, Stony Brook finds itself in a tough position. Because the school is moving to the Colonial Athletic Association next year, the America East ruled them ineligible for the conference tournament. That means the Seawolves will need to receive an at-large bid to make the NCAA tournament, which seems unlikely. 

Has this had an effect on the court? Well, Stony Brook has dropped two in a row and three of its last four. This skid has dropped the Seawolves closer to the middle of the pack in the America East standings. But I feel, because of the recent losses, we’re able to get a great number here. 

New Hampshire is not a team you should be afraid to bet against. Saturday, the Wildcats gave up 88 points in a loss at UMBC. Going back to the start of January, they’ve been alternating wins and losses. While that pattern would seem to indicate a win tonight, take note of the fact New Hampshire is 0-4 ATS this season when playing with just one day of rest between games.

Stony Brook returns home after a bad loss at NJIT, who had previously dropped seven in a row. That game was decided on a late three. The Seawolves have also dropped two straight home games, but one was to Vermont, who is 10-0 in the conference. I sense there will be a tremendous motivation to win here after the America East’s ruling and because the Seawolves don’t want to lose another home game.

New Hampshire is 1-8 on the road this year and has not won a single time as an underdog (0-6). Lay the points.

Vermont, Houston, Longwood, Wagner, Murray State, Auburn, South Dakota State, Gonzaga … and Iona. Those are the only teams in College Basketball yet to lose a conference game.

I’ll be playing against Iona, the top team in the MAAC, today. The Gaels have won their first 11 conference games by an average of 11.5 points. But they face a tricky spot here, visiting Niagara. 

Niagara is middle of the pack in the conference, but is coming off two straight wins. The Purple Eagles won at Monmouth, then returned home to defeat Manhattan. Their record over the L6 games is 3-3 straight up, but the three losses were all by six points or less.

Now the first meeting with Iona didn’t go well. Niagara lost that one by 23 points, as a 10-point underdog. But that was in Iona’s gym. All three times that the Gaels lost this season, the game was played away from home.

Furthermore, Iona has failed to cover in its last two games. Both were eight-point wins. Niagara is on a 15-5-1 ATS run as a home dog. Take the points.

Providence might be the 15th ranked team in the country right now, but oddsmakers do not think very much of the Friars and neither do I. They are first in the Big East with a 9-1 conference record and have won six straight. But, according to most power ranking systems, Providence would be an underdog to at least five BE teams, on a neutral floor.

Here, the Friars are favored, on the road, so I think it’s an opportune time to fade. Georgetown has been struggling, but did cover the first meeting with Providence, as 10-point underdogs, losing only 83-75. That was even with the Hoyas shooting much worse, 40% for the game compared to 52.9% for the Friars.

Of Providence’s nine Big East wins this year, seven have been by eight points or less. Only one has been by more than 10. The Friars have played with fire all year and have one of the better records in the country in close games. They aren’t the kind of team you want to lay points with regularly. 

Georgetown’s leading scorer and rebounder, Aminu Mohammed, was 1 for 13 from the field in the last game and finished with a career-low four points. He will play better Sunday.

I know it’s been a tough year for Patrick Ewing’s Hoyas. They’ve lost 10 in a row. But expect them to cover here. Take the points.

Alabama continues its brutal schedule with a visit from Kentucky. This will be the third consecutive top five opponent for the Crimson Tide.

Last Saturday, they hosted Baylor, who was ranked #4 at the time. On Tuesday, they lost to #1 Auburn.

Including the win over Baylor last Saturday, the Tide have beaten three of last year’s Final Four. Earlier in the season, they defeated Houston and Gonzaga - in consecutive games.

Yes, Bama is favored now. That tells you what kind of team this is. Kentucky is now #4, having won seven of eight including at Kansas last Saturday. But all four Wildcats’ losses have come outside of Lexington. They are just 3-3 in true road games.

Alabama has lost only one game in Tuscaloosa and that was by four to Auburn. Looking at the last month’s ATS results, it’s been a disappointing run for the Tide. But they are my pick here. Watch out for their three-point shooting to improve in this game.

Things have suddenly gone a bit sideways for Wisconsin, who is 0-4 ATS its last four and lost twice straight up. Both losses did come to ranked teams, Michigan State and Illinois, but they were also by double digits. That’s a troubling sign for the Badgers.

The team from Madison had won seven in a row prior to losing to Michigan State on January 21st. But five of the wins were by six points or less. This isn’t a team that wins big very often. They have three double digits wins all season, all of them coming December 4th or earlier (two were in November). 

So I’ll gladly take the points with Penn State tonight. The Nittany Lions are off a double overtime win over Iowa, but that was on Monday, so they’ve had plenty of time to recover. Wisconsin’s game in Illinois, which they lost, was on Wednesday. It’s a quicker turnaround for the favorite and they could be looking ahead to getting revenge against Michigan State on Tuesday. 

Penn State is 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season. They covered the number at Purdue and also upset Indiana. 

In 12 of their 13 games, Wisconsin has either lost or won by nine points or less. Take the points. 

Top 10 teams meet for the first time in 2022. Kansas gets to host first, looking to add to its six-game win streak in conference play.

However, Baylor is the higher ranked team coming into Saturday. The defending National Champs, despite three losses in the last seven games, are #8 in the country. (They opened the season 15-0). Kansas is #10. 

Both squads lost to SEC teams last Saturday, Baylor at Alabama and Kansas at home to Kentucky. They each bounced back with a conference win earlier in the week. Baylor came from behind to beat West Virginia by four. A day later, Kansas went to Iowa State and won by nine.

This looks like a pretty even matchup. Baylor desperately needs to shore up its defense, which has let the last two opponents to shoot 59% and 54% from the floor. I think they will, plus Kansas probably won’t shoot 56% as it did vs. Iowa State. 

Even with that hot shooting, the Jayhawks managed only 70 points vs. Iowa State. That was after being held to 62 by Kentucky. The number just seems too high. Bet the under.

Furman has been rolling, but expect them to stumble a bit Saturday afternoon against UNC Greensboro. 

Now leading the Southern Conference, the Paladins have lost just one time since January 1st. That was by two points at Chattanooga, who is in second place. Furman is on an eight-game ATS win streak as well. During that win streak, six of their seven SU wins have come by 15 points or more.

That’s really impressive, but probably not sustainable. Three days ago against The Citadel, they scored 102 points, including a season-high 63 in the first half. There’s only one way to go following a performance like that. 

When Furman faced UNC Greensboro earlier this year, it was a tight, low-scoring contest. The Paladins escaped with a 58-54 win. That was their lowest scoring game of the year, probably owed to the fact that Greensboro plays at one of the slowest tempos in the entire country.

Playing slow should allow the underdog Spartans to keep this one close. After dropping five of their last seven, this is a team desperate for a win. Take the points.

The Mountain West has six teams ranked in the KenPom top 52 and these are two of them. Colorado State, despite starting the year with 11 consecutive victories, is the lowest rated of the six. They have lost two in a row to fall to 16-3 on the year. Their first loss was an ugly one, 79-49 at San Diego State. That’s who they’ll face again tonight.

The Aztecs are just 4-2 in conference play and 12-5 overall, but they have a top five defense in adjusted efficiency and are second highest among Mt West teams in the KenPom ratings. Not only did they wallop CSU in the first meeting, they’ve won seven of nine. 

I mentioned that SDSU has a top five defense. They are actually #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency and give up just 56.8 points/game. They say that “defense travels” and so you should count on the Aztecs not allowing many points here. Again, they held Colorado State to just 49 points in the first meeting.

In the last nine games, only Utah State has been able to score more than 60 against San Diego State. Meanwhile, Colorado State has just given up 88 points to UNLV and 84 points to Wyoming in its last two games.

Given how easily San Diego State won the first meeting, I’ve got to take them as a slight dog in the rematch. They are the better team and have swept the season series from CSU 12 of the past 22 seasons. They’ve even won 11 of the last 15 here at Moby Arena. Take the points.

Yale had a bit of a rocky road in non-conference play, finishing up just 6-8 straight up and 4-9 against the spread (one game had no line). But since Ivy League play has commenced, it’s been a return to form with a 4-1 mark SU and 3-2 ATS. 

Tonight, the Bulldogs are at home and facing Dartmouth, who is one of the weaker Ivy League teams. The Big Green are just 5-12 this year, straight up, and have a losing record in conference play. They did win their last game, however, beating Columbia 76-63 as 5.5 point road favorites. That Dartmouth was even favored on the road should tell you how bad Columbia must be.

My records only go back to 2016, but Yale has beaten Dartmouth at least 10 straight times, covering the spread in each of the last seven. They’ve been favored every time. So it’s been a one-sided rivalry. 

Yale just got a big win last Saturday, beating Princeton by six as three-point underdogs. The Bulldogs are now just a half game out of first place. They can’t afford to slip up here. Thus expect a focused effort.

The Bulldogs are averaging 81.5 points/game at home this year while Dartmouth averages only 66.1 points/game on the road. Before beating Columbia, the Big Green had dropped seven straight on the road. Lay the points here.

Less than one month ago, USC was one of the last few remaining unbeaten teams in College Basketball. Fast forward to the present and the Trojans are just 5-3 the last eight games. But they did beat Cal 79-72 last Saturday, ensuring they’d remain in the Top 25. Southern Cal comes into tonight’s game ranked #19 in the country.

Stanford has handed the Trojans two of its three losses. Against everyone else, USC is 18-1 this year. They beat Arizona State by 22, 78-56, just over a week ago. Even with this game being in Tempe, I don’t think there’s much reason to expect things will go any different. 

The Trojans played a “clean” game against Cal, committing only four turnovers. But it was one of their weaker defensive efforts, just the second time all season that an opponent shot 50% or better. Expect things to be ratcheted up at that end tonight.

Arizona State is one of the Pac 12’s weakest teams. They’ve lost three in a row and six of their last seven. The Sun Devils only win since December 14th was by two points over last place Utah.

USC has covered five straight times against ASU and tonight should be no different. I’ve got no problem laying single digits on the road with the vastly superior team. The Sun Devils have failed to even score 60 in four of their last six games.

You may not be all that familiar with the Summit League, but there’s one team (South Dakota State) well out in front with a perfect 11-0 conference record. Oral Roberts (9-2) is second and if they want to keep pace, they’ll need to take care of Western Illinois (4-6) tonight. I think they will.

Oral Roberts has won eight of its past nine games. The lone loss was their home game and they fell by just a single point, 72-71 to North Dakota State. The Eagles have since gone out on the road and defeated both Omaha and Denver, racking up a lot of points in the process. They scored 100 and 89 in those two wins.

ORU averages 87.7 points per game at home, so you should again expect lots of points from them tonight. Western Illinois, who just gave up 83 in their last game, a loss to UMKC, allows 78.1 points per game on the road.

Western Illinois has dropped 7 of its last 10 overall. They let UMKC shoot 56% on Monday and dropped to 3-7 ATS in conference play. The Leathernecks have lost the last five meetings with Oral Roberts.

Led by Max Abmas, ORU is one of the five highest scoring teams in all of College Basketball. They’ll score enough to cover the spread tonight. 

A rare move to the America East Conference for this play where I will take UMBC, the only team to ever make the NCAA Tournament’s Round of 32  as a 16-seed, to cover the spread.  

Right now though, the Retrievers aren’t really thinking about the NCAA Tournament. They find themselves at just 4-4 in conference play and 9-10 overall. Their opponent on Wednesday is Albany, who has a similar record (5-4 in conference play, 9-12 overall). 

Both teams have played better lately. UMBC has won three in a row. Albany, though off a loss to conference leader Vermont, is 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games.

Albany hasn’t been all that strong at home this year (3-4 SU) and are not a great offensive team, averaging just 62.0 PPG. After being blitzed by Vermont (allowed 56.9% shooting), the Great Danes probably aren’t in a great position to be favored tonight. They’ve been favorites in only four games prior to this one.

But most important of all is that this is a revenge game for UMBC, who lost to Albany 66-54 as a 4.5-point home favorite, two weeks ago. That was a bad shooting night for the Retrievers, who made only 17 field goals the entire game. In the three games since, they have scored 88, 73 and 70 points. Expect a much better offensive showing tonight and take the points.

Drake, who is coming off a big upset of Loyola Chicago, now turns its attention to a much lesser Missouri Valley foe - Indiana State. The Bulldogs win on Saturday squared them up with Loyola for the MVC lead. Indiana State is just 2-6 in conference play and that’s why they are a home dog here. 

Sunday saw ISU lose by 15 at Bradley. It was the Sycamores’ fifth loss in six games and saw season-lows in field goal percentage (34.0) and three-pointers made (five). They were dominated on the inside, gave up too many second chance points and turned the ball over 15 times. All in all, a poor effort for Larry Bird’s alma mater.

Drake has not been especially good at covering the spread this season (5-14 ATS), but they are winning games. They’ve won 13 of 16. Now three of the wins have been in overtime and three wins last month were by a single point. But taking down Loyola Chicago, who was a Top 25 team not too long ago, was rather impressive.

The Bulldogs didn’t even shoot all that well in the 77-68 upset. But they scored 45 points in the second half. Five of the last six games, they’ve topped 70. Indiana State, meanwhile, has scored 56 or less in three of its last five games. This should be an easy win for the favorite.

Texas vs. Texas Tech is a Top 25 matchup on Tuesday’s docket. Both are 16-5. Texas Tech is ranked higher and favored, due to being at home. But the underdog is the play here.

No doubt Texas Tech has been covering games lately. They are 8-1 against the spread the last nine games. They’ve lost twice straight up, but one of those was a multi-OT game at Kansas. The Red Raiders had already beaten Kansas once this year and they also hold a win over Baylor.

But Texas leads the country in scoring defense at 54.5 points per game allowed. They are a tough team to beat, let alone beat by any kind of substantial margin. In what promises to be another low-scoring affair in the Big 12, taking the points just seems like a sound decision.

Longhorns coach Chris Beard left Texas Tech after last season. He knows the opponent well.

Texas Tech won’t shoot 61% again like they did vs. Mississippi State over the weekend. Texas’ defense keeps this one close and I can see an upset happening.

This may seem like a lot of points to lay with a Virginia team that doesn’t score all that much. But the Hoos have proven to be resilient off a loss and play great defense. Boston College is also not good on the road.

Virginia is one of 13 teams in the country that is allowing fewer than 60 points per game. Playing at home tonight, you should bank on them allowing less than 60 points.

Saturday saw the Cavaliers lose 69-65 at Notre Dame. It was a bad shooting night from three with them making just 3 of 14 from behind the arc. Fortunately, Virginia has a 4-0 ATS record so far off a conference loss. They shoot a respectable 34.4% from three at home.

Boston College, who is coming off a rare win, is just 1-8 away from home this year. That one win was by two over Clemson. The Eagles are averaging less than 60 points/game on the road.

Coming off an ACC win, BC is 0-3 ATS. So lay the points in this one. 

Everybody looks up to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference, but there’s actually a pretty strong top four in the league this season with BYU, St. Mary’s and San Francisco all looking like they’re NCAA Tournament worthy. But we’re not talking about any of those teams today. We’ve got a matchup of teams in the bottom half of the WCC, Pacific and Santa Clara.

I think Santa Clara has a substantial edge on Monday. The Broncos are coming off a series of close games, an overtime win against San Diego, a win at the buzzer over BYU and an overtime loss to San Francisco. They are just 3-3 SU in conference play, but 9-3 at home and far more respectable than tonight’s opponent.

Pacific is 1-4 SU in conference play and 0-7 on the road. The Tigers just recorded their first WCC win of the campaign on Saturday, shocking BYU 76-73 as a 12-point underdog. Before that, they were on a seven-game losing streak and almost every loss was by double digits.

Not only have the Tigers yet to win a true road game this year, they are also 0-7 ATS in those games. Their overall ATS mark this year is 3-14, very poor and among the worst in the country. 

With Santa Clara averaging just over 80 points per game at home, I just don’t see how Pacific is going to be able to stay within the number here. Lay the points.

Tennessee and Texas, two ranked teams, do battle in Austin Saturday night as part of the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge. This is Rick Barnes’ return to Austin, where he coached for 17 seasons. I anticipate this being a higher-scoring affair than expected.

The Volunteers have won their last three games, but still in my mind is the memory of them giving up 107 points to Kentucky not that long ago. I suppose you could try and call that an aberration, but the fact is three of the last four times the Vols have gone on the road, they’ve allowed 70 or more points.

They also just gave up 71 to Florida Wednesday night.

Texas tends not to give up many points, but they also rarely face a team that is as good offensively as Tennessee is. Consider that, against Florida, the Vols put up 78 points and that was despite having a five minute stretch where they didn’t even attempt a single shot!

The Longhorns were very dominant in their last game, rolling TCU in what was a 23-point win. I just think that both teams are capable of scoring 65 points tonight. That would mean the Over hits.

Coming off a close call against Missouri, I expect Auburn to deliver a knockout blow to Oklahoma on Saturday. This time, the Tigers, who are ranked #1 for the first time in program history, are at home. The Tigers have won their ten home games this year by an average of 18.8 points.

Oklahoma just ended a four-game losing streak by winning at West Virginia. The Sooners have been competitive at times this year, but this will be their third game against a top five opponent in the last 11 days. It’s a really horrid spot for them.

Against Missouri, Auburn simply did not shoot the ball well. They made only 30 percent from the field and scored only 55 points. That was after scoring 80 or more in six straight games. Look for the Tigers to get back on track offensively this afternoon. 

OU is shooting less than 30 percent from three, on the road, this season. That’s not going to cut it here. 

The Sooners have won nine straight games against SEC competition. That streak ends here. The Tigers pounce. Lay the number.

We’ve got Michigan State coming off a loss and Michigan needing this game pretty badly. The unranked Wolverines have put together a nice three-game win streak, but are still only 10-7 on the season. They need more wins to boost their NCAA Tournament resume. Winning at East Lansing would be a big help.

But the Spartans just dropped a one-point decision at Illinois earlier in the week. It was low-scoring, 56-55, and that’s what I think this game will be as well.

During the three-game win streak, Michigan has shot better than 57 percent from the floor. There’s simply no way that can continue. Not against a MSU team that is keeping its opponents below 40 percent shooting for the season. Visiting teams are hitting less than 30 percent from three at the Breslin Center.

Of course, MSU shot very poorly in the Illinois game, making just 34.5 percent of its attempts. 

The Under has hit each of the previous four times Sparty has been a home favorite between 3.5 and 6 points. 

Lehigh has covered three straight games, but all of those were as underdogs. Tonight marks just the second time in conference action that they’re favored and once again the opponent is Holy Cross. The Mountain Hawks did win and cover that first matchup, 77-69 laying 6.5 points, back on January 10th. But that was at home and with HC having a poor shooting night.

The line for this game, at Holy Cross, is almost the same as it was for the game three weeks ago. That seems strange. Lehigh is just 2-12 ATS its last 14 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in that role this season. Tonight is the first time in 2021-22 that they have been giving points on the road. 

Holy Cross’ record is a pretty woeful 3-15, but this is a game the Crusaders can win. Even though they missed 14 of the 18 three-point attempts they took, the first meeting with Lehigh was decided by only eight points. HC shoots much better from behind the arc when they are at home (38%).

All of the Crusaders wins this year have come at home. Lehigh is 9-29 in its last 38 road games, 3-8 this season. Take the points.

Off a loss, last Friday, you may think that the smart money is on #11 Wisconsin to bounce back here. But the Badgers are ranked too high and after previously winning seven in a row, they’re due to start giving some back. 

Wisconsin had also covered five in a row before running into Michigan State last week. They lost 86-74 last Friday, playing without third leading scorer Wahl. The team’s leading scorer, Davis, missed 10 of 13 shots in the first half as the Badgers fell behind by 16. 

There have been four games this season where Wisconsin has rallied from a double digit deficit to win. That seems a bit fortuitous. 

Now it’s not been a good season in Lincoln as Nebraska has lost six straight and 11 of the last 12. This game, which was originally going to take place on Tuesday, had to be moved back as the Cornhuskers were dealing with COVID. But trust me when I say there’s nothing they’d like more here than to play “spoiler.”

When Wisconsin won seven in a row, five of those wins were by six points or less. They don’t dominate and won’t be able to win by a large margin here tonight.

So we’re going with VCU here, based on how the line is moving and the fact I don’t believe Davidson should be ranked. Sure, the Wildcats are among the hottest teams in the country right now with 15 straight wins. But the last three have been by a total of eight points.

I view Davidson’s #25 ranking as a bit of a “ok we acknowledge what you’re doing” from the oddsmakers. But I don’t think anyone REALLY thinks this is a Top 25 team. The Wildcats were expected to be middle of the pack in the Atlantic 10 this year.

One of Davidson’s recent three close victories, all of which were on the road, came at VCU. The Wildcats ended that game on a 10-2 run. That was one of just two losses for VCU since the beginning of  December.

The Rams are a top three team (in the country!) in adjusted defensive efficiency. So I believe they can limit Davidson from three-point range. The Wildcats have been making a living behind the arc, making 41% of their attempts, second best in the country.

VCU is coming off a 70-54 win over St. Joe’s and looking for revenge. Davidson, who was down 47-40 to lowly Fordham in the second half on Saturday, is coming off three straight road games that went down to the wire and may have little left in the tank. Take the points here. 

Iowa State continues to get little respect as they are underdogs for their visit to Stillwater on Wednesday night. The lack of respect stems from the fact the Cyclones have dropped five of their last seven games, following a 12-0 start. They have only two conference victories since the start of last year, both coming this season. But I will take them plus the points in this spot, noting Oklahoma State’s own slump and inability to score points.

Over their last 10 games, OSU is just 4-6 and averaging 64.3 points while shooting 39.7%. That’s not good. On Saturday, the Cowboys went down at the hands of Texas, 56-51 as 10-point road underdogs.

Tonight will mark just the second time in the last nine games that the Pokes have been favored. They did win the other time, but just by one point (against TCU) and thus did not cover the spread. OSU only has four double digit victories all year and the last one was right before Thanksgiving.

Iowa State continues to be solid, defensively. They allow just 59.9 points per game as opponents are shooting just 40.8%. 

So with Oklahoma State unlikely to score much tonight, it seems quite logical to grab the points. They have actually failed to cover the spread six straight times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.

These are the two top teams in the Pac 12 and two of the top 10 in the country. Arizona is #3 in the latest poll and got one first place vote. UCLA moved up a couple spots to #8. 

This game was supposed to take place on December 30th, but UCLA was dealing with COVID issues. The delay may have worked in the Bruins’ favor as fan restrictions have now been lifted and they can enjoy a sense of “home court” advantage at Pauley Pavillion.

Arizona’s one loss this season was on the road, to a Top 25 team. They fell 77-73 at Tennessee on December 22nd. The Wildcats have looked impressive since then, posting five straight double digit wins in conference play. But other than Illinois, they haven’t beaten that many quality teams this year.

UCLA beat Villanova back in November and also went to Marquette and won. One of their losses was by just three points, to Oregon, while the other was to #2 Gonzaga. 

The Bruins have beaten Arizona five straight times and are 5-0 ATS as well. Look for them to make it six straight tonight.

In their last 19 visits, Siena is a fascinating 17-2 ATS when playing at Iona. But tonight should go differently in the MAAC. After almost a full month off (COVID cancellations), Siena will be playing its third straight road game on Tuesday. They lost the last one, 75-68 at Manhattan. Iona is clearly the best team in the conference this year, at 16-3 overall and 8-0 vs. other MAAC teams. 

Iona is a big favorite, but that’s not without justification. The Gaels are riding a five-game win streak and their only loss since the beginning of December came by a single point at St. Louis. This is a good team we’re backing today. They are coming off a 15-point win as 8.5 point favorites, on the road, over Quinnipiac Saturday.

Iona hasn’t lost a home game this year, even though they are only shooting 30.4% from three. Their success can be attributed to their FG% defense. Opponents shoot just 39.5% at Iona, including 25.3% from three.

Look for Iona, who averages 78.9 points at home, to shoot better from three tonight. Siena is outside the top 200 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Even worse is that the Saints rank outside the top 300 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Iona ranks in the top 81 nationally at both ends.

This long-standing rivalry between the two upstate New York schools has seen Siena cash more often than not, at least when they’re on the road. But tonight will be different. Lay the points with Iona. 

Playing against a bad team that’s coming off a rare win always seems to be a good idea and that’s what I’m doing here with Idaho. The Vandals won 73-72 on Saturday, beating Sacramento State. It was their first win since before Christmas when they beat a team named “SAGU American Indian College.” 

Idaho needed overtime to get that win Saturday. They gave up 42 points in the second half, which was the most points scored by Sacramento State in any half this season. 

The win was at home. On the road, Idaho is 0-9. They’ve lost 30 of 33 road games the last three years.

Portland State’s only win since Christmas also came against Sacramento State. But that was back on 1/15. Since then, the Vikings have lost three in a row. They know tonight is their best chance at a win in some time.

This will also be PSU’s third straight home game. Next they’ve got Southern Utah, who is one of the better Big Sky teams. The fact the Vikings keep visiting teams to 62 points/game (on 38% shooting) tells me they can win this one rather comfortably, so lay the points.

Miss Valley State is as bad as any College Basketball team in the country. They have just one win this season and it came by two points, in overtime, against a Prairie View A&M squad that also happens to be rated among the nation’s very worst. Since that lone win, the Delta Devils have been blown out by Texas Southern and been rather competitive in three other defeats. Tonight’s game is likely to go poorly for them.

Southern U is coming off a 48-point win on Saturday where they almost scored 100 points (99). They shot 56.5% and held Ark-Pine Bluff to 31.4%. The win was the Jaguars’ seventh in the last nine games. The two losses both came on the road and one was at Dayton.

Southern has only played five games at home this season. They’re 5-0 and winning by almost 30 points/game. I look for a win of a similar margin here tonight. The last two times they faced MVSU, the game was at home and the margins of victory were 33 and 41 points.

On the road, MVSU is getting beat by 28.5 points/game. 

Not only is Southern 12-4 ATS in all of its lined games this season, they are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games. Should be an easy one for them on Monday, so be sure to lay the points.

Red hot Marquette hosts #20 Xavier here. The Golden Eagles have won five in a row and covered the spread every time. They are fresh off an upset of #11 Villanova earlier this week. It was their third straight win over a ranked opponent.

This Marquette team has balance with four players averaging at least 11 points. During the win streak, the Golden Eagles are averaging 79.4 points and giving up only 64.4. Xavier’s last five games, which includes two losses, have been much tighter. The Musketeers are averaging only 70.6 points and giving up 69.4. 

The revenge angle is in play here as Xavier beat Marquette back in December, 80-71. But Marquette is obviously playing much better now. They held Providence and Villanova both under 60 points. 

Beating ‘Nova was really impressive. Marquette was the first road team to win there since 2018.  

So at home, I like the Golden Eagles to handle their business. Xavier has lost twice to Villanova recently and they were a bit lucky to stave off what was almost another loss on Thursday. They were down 10 in the second half to a DePaul team that was playing without its leading scorer. The Musketeers ended up winning by only one point, 68-67.  It was the fifth time they failed to cover in the last six games. TAKE THE POINTS

Wyoming has had a couple close calls over its current five-game win streak. But both of those were not at home. In Laramie, the Cowboys are 7-0 with a +26.9 scoring average. I’m surprised they’re not favored by more here, especially with New Mexico on a five game losing streak. 

Perhaps the line is shorter than expected because New Mexico is 11-5-1 ATS. Wednesday was the fifth time they’ve covered in the last six games. But this is a situation where the Lobos are simply overmatched. The oddsmakers were a bit too generous in giving them 16 points at Colorado State. But that game saw New Mexico shoot better than expected and make 14 threes. 

Don’t think they’ll do that again. Wyoming is excellent defensively as it is allowing less than 40 percent shooting for the year. The Cowboys just won by 15 on Wednesday against San Jose State, keeping their perfect conference record intact. Four minutes into the game, they took the lead and never relinquished it.

New Mexico allowing 83.4 points on the road is a problem, for them at least. Wyoming’s only two losses this year were to Pac 12 teams, one of which was Arizona. The home team is just way better. Lay the points with WYOMING

Both Coppin State and Norfolk State are on 3-0 ATS win streaks entering Saturday. But the similarities end there. Norfolk State has simply been the better team all year. They have an 11-4 straight up record on the season while Coppin State has won only three games straight up all year. 

Norfolk State has also won all three of the games it has covered in a row. The last one was a 14-point victory at MD-Eastern Shore. That game saw the Spartans pull away in the second half. After playing so many games on the road the last two months, Norfolk State will be glad to be back home. They’ve won all four games on their home court and done so by an average of 36 points per contest! 

Coppin State was a small underdog in recent wins over South Carolina State and Morgan State. Before those wins, the Eagles had lost nine in a row. Last Saturday’s win came on a buzzer beater from beyond halfcourt. Coppin State trailed by 10 at halftime against Morgan State. So had it not been for the buzzer beater, we’d be talking about a team that had lost 10 of 11.

Like Norfolk, Coppin State has played most of its games on the road. Problem is they are 2-13 away from home, those two wins coming each of the last two Saturdays. Can’t see them making it three in a row. Norfolk State is the best team in the MEAC and should win handily. Play on NORFOLK STATE

In what could end up being a high scoring game, I like Eastern Washington to win at home. It’s difficult for me to see Northern Colorado being able to shoot the ball as well as they did Thursday at Idaho. The Bears made 57.1% of their field goal attempts, including 47.4% from three, on their way to an 87-70 win.

It also helped that NCO saw Idaho make only 3 of its 16 three-point attempts. The wide disparity in three-point shooting basically dictated that game’s outcome. While NCO is a good three-point shooting team, they face an EWU team that is keeping its opponents right around 30% for the year from distance.

Eastern Washington has gotten to play just six home games and three have been since the New Year. They’ve won two in a row, besting Idaho 96-93 and then Sacramento State 75-62 on Thursday. Normally, the Eagles are very good in Cheney. Their home record the last three seasons is 24-6. 

So getting the home team at this price seems ideal. They are on an 18-5 ATS run when playing with just one day of rest between games. Play on EASTERN WASHINGTON

The two hottest teams from the MAC will hook up tonight in Athens, Ohio has won nine straight games and is 14-2 on the season. Toledo carries a five-game win streak into this game and they have also covered the spread in each of those five victories.

Ohio hasn’t lost at home this year. The Bobcats are 8-0 in Athens and winning by 11.4 points per contest. Their only two losses this year came against Kentucky and LSU! This is a good basketball team.

Not saying Toledo isn’t any good, but the fact they are on the road places the Rockets at a slight disadvantage. All four of their losses this year have come away from home. In the last two road games, UT gave up 72 and 78 points.

Ohio has been a covering machine in the MAC the past three seasons. They are 27-13 ATS. The last time they faced Toledo was the MAC Tournament in March and the Bobcats won that game. They’d make the NCAA Tournament and pull a first round upset over Virginia.

Four starters are back from that NCAA Tournament squad and the Bobcats remain the favorites to win the league this year. Each of their last four home wins have come by at least seven points. Lay the points with OHIO

Earlier this month, Murray State made news by announcing it would be joining the Missouri Valley Conference in July. But that’s the future. Here in the present, the Racers are dominating their current conference (Ohio Valley) with a 5-0 record. They are 15-2 overall on the season.

That dominance should - pretty clearly - continue tonight when Murray State hosts Eastern Illinois. The Racers are - justifiably - big favorites here. They’ve won their eight home games by an average of almost 28 points.

Then you’ve got Eastern Illinois, who is 2-14 overall and hasn’t won a single road game. EIU will not be sad to see Murray State leave the OVC. Three days ago, at home, they lost 72-46 to the Racers at home. 

So it’s a quick rematch and obviously there’s no reason to think that things will go any better here for the underdog. Eastern Illinois is just 14-28 ATS in conference play the last three seasons. They are putting up only 50.7 points per game away from home. 

Murray State has covered 10 of the last 13 times it has been a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. This is a large spread, but for good reason. Lay it!

Winthrop has a perfect 3-0 straight up record in the Big South, but the Eagles have been unable to cash any tickets as favorites this year. They are 0-7 ATS in the chalk role and have not covered any of the last five games.

But I look for that to change on Thursday. Winthrop takes on a struggling Presbyterian side tonight.  It’s a road game, but Presbyterian isn’t a team to be feared. In their last home game, they lost 82-72 as an eight point favorite.

As conference foes, these teams meet twice every year. It’s an interesting pattern the previous two years. Winthrop won all four games, but failed to cover the spread every time.

That plays a bit into the recent form of the Eagles winning, but not covering. However, what I find interesting is that they were double digit favorites each of those last four games against Presbyterian. Here, it’s a relatively short number and I’m seeing value on the road team. 

Presbyterian has lost eight straight games against Division I opponents. Since the beginning of December, the only three teams that the Blue Hose have beaten are: Bob Jones U, Carver Bible and Truett-McConnell. I’m not making those schools up. Lay the points with WINTHROP

The last time Kentucky played, they put up 107 points. That would be impressive against anyone, but to do that against Tennessee, a nationally ranked team that’s also fifth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, well that’s just awesome.

Proud to say I had the Wildcats against Tennessee. Look for them to score a lot again tonight as they visit Texas A&M. Kentucky is averaging 84 points per game this season. They’ve gone over 90 in five of the last eight games.

But A&M can score too. Especially when they’re at home. The Aggies average 80.9 points here in College Station. I know that the last two games, both Unders, were low-scoring. But before that A&M had a streak of six straight games scoring at least 80 points.

Frankly, I’m stunned this total isn’t higher. A&M, who is on an eight-game win streak, has gone Over all four times they’ve been an underdog this year. 

Kentucky won’t shoot as well as they did against Tennessee. But they will still score 75 or more points and that’s all we need. Take the OVER

Loyola Chicago should be a familiar name to those who follow the NCAA Tournament. The Ramblers have made two deep Tourney runs in the last four years, one of them all the way to the Final Four (in 2018). Currently on a nine-game win streak, they are back in the Top 25 as of yesterday (ranked #22). 

Expect an easy win on Tuesday. Evansville is a bad team with a 4-11 record. The Purple Aces hadn’t played in almost a month when it was time for the Missouri Valley Conference portion of the schedule to go into full effect. They’ve lost all three games in January, two by 22 or more.

Loyola is clearly the best Missouri Valley team this year, although they’ve had some close calls. Two of their four league wins have required overtime. But this one is looking like the easiest matchup yet. 

Saturday saw Loyola hold Indiana State to 56 points. Evansville is only averaging 60.5 points this season. So it should be another solid effort at the defensive end from the favorite here.

The past two years have seen Loyola win all four head to head meetings. Three of the wins have been by double digits. Lay the points with LOYOLA CHICAGO

Akron, who is one of the top teams in the MAC, has hit a recent snag. They’ve lost two of three and are just 9-5 on the year. But tonight they host a Western Michigan team that is on a six-game losing streak. Expect this to be an easy cover by the home team.

The Zips lost 67-55 at rival Kent State on Friday. In addition to falling victim to a career night from Kent State’s Sincere Carry, the Zips were terrible at shooting from long range. They made only 4 of 24 three point attempts. 

But for the year, they’ve shot well from distance. At home they are making 37.4% of three-point attempts and that’s a big reason why they are putting up 82.4 points per game at the James A. Rhodes Arena. With Western Michigan giving up 86.1 points per game on the road this year, tonight should be an excellent showing at the offensive end from Akron.

WMU has scored more than 64 points only once during its six-game losing streak. They never seem to do well in games where the total is 130 to 139.5. They are 5-17 ATS in such games the last three seasons, 0-6 when on the road.

This is a game Akron should win by 20 or more points. Western Michigan is getting outscored by 21.1 points per game on the road. Lay the points with AKRON

Over the weekend, SF Austin suffered its second loss in the last three games. It was 49-41 at Sam Houston State. As you can tell from that score, it was a bad shooting night. The Lumberjacks made only 26.3% of their field goal attempts and were 3 of 25 from three-point range.

It was also the third straight ATS loss for the Lumberjacks, who are trying to make their presence felt in the WAC, their new conference home after a move from the Southland. 

Tonight should be a “get-well” game for SF Austin as they face one of their old Southland rivals, Lamar, who is having an absolutely terrible season. Lamar comes into Monday with a 2-14 SU record. Both wins were against non-DI opponents.

The Cardinals just got beat by Chicago State, who is a horrible team, on Saturday. They were actually eight-point favorites in that game, playing at home. On the road, Lamar hasn’t won a game. They are 0-10. 

While Lamar has been somewhat competitive this year, that won’t be the case tonight. SF Austin should be in a foul mood and ready to dominate one of the easiest opponents on their remaining schedule. LAY THE POINTS

For the first time this season, Purdue is an underdog. That’s because Monday’s opponent, Illinois, is no joke. The Fighting Illini deserve to be ranked much higher than #25. No need to spend much time singing the Illini’s praises to Boilermaker fans though. Illinois has won the last three meetings by an average of 17 points. 

But Purdue is also very good and I don’t want to fade them either. What I will do though is take the Over. Neither team has much trouble scoring and you should expect plenty of points in this early Monday tipoff.

Purdue is putting up 85.6 points per contest. That’s sixth most in the country. They scored 92 on Friday in a blowout win over Nebraska. It was the fourth straight Boilermakers’ game to go Over the total.

Illinois is averaging 79.7 points this season, 83.8 when at home. Their last game, a 68-53 win over Michigan, was pretty low-scoring. But that was after putting up at least 76 points in 10 straight games.

My view is that Purdue is the better team, but Illinois is undoubtedly hotter. Both teams can obviously score. The Over is 10-2 in the Boilermakers’ previous 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the OVER here.

Iowa is a team that can score. They are fourth in the country in scoring at 86.5 points per game. But they don’t defend particularly well. That’s evident by the fact that they are 160th in adjusted defensive efficiency and also them giving up an average of 77.2 points per game when they play on the road.

That defensive efficiency rating of theirs really sticks out. It’s the poorest mark - by far - of any team in the KenPom top 40. So I really like the idea of grabbing the points here, with Iowa being on the road.

The Hawkeyes were a bit lucky to pull one out in Iowa City earlier this week. They rallied from a 48-41 halftime deficit to beat Indiana 83-74. But again, that was a home game. Let it be known that Iowa’s last three true road games all ended up as losses.

Minnesota comes into Sunday as a desperate team. They’re on a three-game losing streak after falling in the final second to Michigan State on Wednesday. It was still a valiant effort as double digit underdogs against a team ranked 10th in the country.

Bottom line: I just think that the Golden Gophers will score enough to stay within a generous number at home. Grab the points.

#1 Baylor looks to bounce back from its first loss of the season when it hosts Oklahoma State on Saturday. I expect this game to go quite well for the top ranked Bears. 

They led Texas Tech by 15 in the first half before suffering their first loss since last year’s Big 12 Tournament. The reigning National Champs had won 22 in a row by an average of 26 points.

Oklahoma State is also off a loss to Texas Tech, though theirs came in more lopsided fashion. It was 78-58 down in Lubbock on Thursday. This is a trying season for the Cowboys, who are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.

Baylor has had two more days to prepare for this game, an advantage they don’t really need but will gladly take. This is OSU’s third road game in five days and they have failed to cover eight of their last nine overall.

Look for the best team in the country to come out with some real energy after suffering their first loss of the year. That should result in a big win. Play on BAYLOR

There’s a top five in the SEC pecking order with Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee and Alabama all vying for conference supremacy. Two of the five teams go head to head on Saturday as #18 Kentucky faces #22 Tennessee in Lexington Saturday afternoon.

UT has split its first four SEC games, winning twice at home and losing both times on the road. That pattern doesn’t bode well for today. The teams the Volunteers lost at: were Alabama and LSU. Kentucky is 11-0 at Rupp Arena so far, winning by 27.5 points per contest.

The Wildcats’ only SEC loss came at LSU. They never trailed Tuesday in a 78-66 win over Vanderbilt. In that game, Oscar Tshiebwe turned in his 12th double double of the season and a career-high 30 points. UK led by as many as 28 before taking their foot off the gas near the end of the game.

Kentucky seems to have a major edge at the offensive end where they are eighth in the country in adjusted efficiency. Tennessee is only 58th. Versus teams that average 77 or more points per game, the Vols are 5-14 ATS the previous three seasons. 

Because they’re playing at home, Kentucky has a significant advantage. Lay the points here. 

Virginia Commonwealth and St. Bonaventure may have similar straight up records (10-3 and 9-4 respectively), but it’s a much different story at the pay window as VCU is 10-4 ATS (7-0 on the road) while the Bonnies are 3-8 ATS and have failed to cover seven in a row. But what I’m looking for Friday is a reversal of fortunes.

The Bonnies had not played in almost a month (four cancellations/postponements) when they took the floor against LaSalle on Tuesday. They won 80-76, but could not cover the 9.5 point spread on the road as the game went to overtime. I’m going to “excuse” that close call, based on how long it had been since the Bonnies had last played. With a game under their belt and playing at home, expect a much better effort from the Bonnies tonight.

VCU has won seven straight overall and is 3-0 in January. The Rams had one close call, a 53-52 win at Dayton, but other than that they’ve been winning rather comfortably. 

The key to tonight’s game is that I do not think VCU can match its scoring from the last two games when it put up 85 on LaSalle and 84 on George Washington. The Rams only average 63.4 points per game and are 255th in offensive efficiency. 

St. Bonaventure doesn’t foul all that often and VCU isn’t very good at converting free throws all that often. The road team also has a high turnover rate. Assuming the Bonnies can convert those TO’s into points, they should easily cover this number as VCU won’t be doing much scoring of their own. Play on ST. BONAVENTURE

USC just suffered its first loss and is now laying a big number against Oregon State. I’m all about taking the points in this matchup.

It was only 48 hours ago that the Trojans suffered that first loss, on the road, to Stanford. Favored by 6.5 points, they lost 75-69. It was a poor shooting effort, which may have had something to do with the game being moved. Originally, it was going to be played Saturday. But COVID rearranged the schedule.

Now the Trojans will play three conference games in a week. Up next is Oregon State, who was also an Elite Eight team last season. The Beavers are not having as good of a 2021-22 season; they are just 3-11 and coming off a last second loss to Oregon. But they have covered three in a row.

Attendance will be limited for tonight’s game. That minimizes any home court advantage for USC.

The underdog keeps this one close! Take the points with Oregon State. 

UCLA is 10-1 and ranked third in the country. But they are 0-2 ATS since returning to the court from a near month-long layoff. Last week the Bruins did not cover against Long Beach State or against California. Considering Cal only made 1 of its 14 three-point attempts, it’s rather shocking UCLA couldn’t win that game by more than eight points. 

Oregon is a much tougher opponent than Cal (or Long Beach State). The Ducks and Bruins met just once last year. The Ducks won 82-74. The teams played just once in the 2019-20 season. The Ducks won that one as well, 96-75. 

Both games took place in Eugene. But the Ducks did just win on the road Monday, despite allowing 53.4% shooting. They beat Oregon State 78-76. It was their third straight win. They’ve got confidence entering this game.

UCLA has played only four games since the start of December. That kind of inactivity leaves them prone to a potential upset here. Grab the points with OREGON

Not sure Wisconsin deserves to be ranked #13 in the country at this moment. Granted, the Badgers are 13-2 and on a five-game win streak. But they are the third highest ranked Big 10 team right now. Does anyone really believe this is the third best team in this ultra-strong conference.

Four of the wins during Wisconsin’s current streak have been by five points or fewer. They did go to Purdue and pull an upset, give the Badgers credit for that. But some of the other close calls were against Nicholls State and Illinois State.

This week saw the Badgers move up 10 spots in the Top 25. I’m really salivating at this opportunity to fade them.

It helps that they are facing Ohio State, who won the first meeting 73-55 in Columbus. Wisconsin was dominated on the glass in that game and was held to 33.8% from the floor, including 6 of 26 from behind the arc. 

The Buckeyes have lost only one time in their last seven games. They beat Duke earlier this year. I get the revenge angle being in play, but I think Ohio State is better. So TAKE THE POINTS.

Middle Tennessee finds itself on a three-game losing streak. But the Blue Raiders are 10-2 against the spread in 2021-22. There’s only two teams with a higher percentage of covering games. MT is 5-0 ATS when favored. So this is precisely the kind of spot where you want to back them.

The opponent is Florida Atlantic, who is 7-6 and coming off a win at Marshall. But it’s been an up and down year for the Owls. Before going to Marshall and pulling the upset, FAU was an upset victim at the hands of High Point, which was also a road game.

The three straight losses that MT has suffered all came on the road. They are 6-0 at home, winning by almost 23 points per contest.

FAU had not won on the road prior to their last game. They are just 7-22 in the last 29 games outside of Boca Raton. They’d been off for almost three weeks when they won at Marshall.

Laying a small number with MT, at home, just makes sense here. 

Both Commonwealth teams are off losses. Virginia had no answers for North Carolina’s Armando Bacot in a 74-58 loss on Saturday. Virginia Tech has lost two in a row and six of nine while dealing with COVID. 

Several factors have me on Virginia here. The Cavaliers are at home, after playing three straight on the road. They are still a top 25 team (barely) and only giving up 58.8 points per contest. 

Virginia Tech gives up a similar number of points per game, however that number has started to rise after losses to Duke and NC State. The latter loss occurred after a two-week break induced by COVID and the Hokies seemed to falter down the stretch. Another problem for the Hokies is they’ve managed to top 65 points just two times in the last nine games.

You don’t see Virginia as this small of a home favorite all that often. They are better than how they’ve performed ATS at home so far. 

Virginia Tech has been an underdog two times previous to this. They lost both games. They are 5-12 SU the last 17 tries as a dog. Play on VIRGINIA

These are two of the five teams that believe they can win a SEC Championship this season. Kentucky, LSU and Tennessee are the others. Auburn is now being projected as a 1-seed by Joe Lunardi, but I’m not convinced they’re going to end up in that lofty position. Sell the Tigers here in what will be a very tough environment.

The mood in Tuscaloosa figures to be a bit “dour” as the football team just lost the National Championship Game last night. Also, the basketball team lost at Missouri on Saturday, as a 14-point favorite. Off that kind of loss, the Crimson Tide should come out motivated here, looking to raise the spirits of those on campus. 

Alabama has not lost at home. They are 7-0 here this season and have won 10 of the last 12 times they’ve hosted Auburn. The Tide have also not lost back to back games this season.

Previous wins over Houston and Gonzaga show Bama can beat anyone. Auburn hasn’t faced many strong teams during their 11-game win streak, save for LSU and that was a home game. 

Road games with a total of 150 to 159.5 have seen the Tigers go just 2-11 ATS. Play on ALABAMA.

After losing three straight games, each time as a favorite, Campbell finds itself as a slight underdog to Winthrop on Monday. Winthrop, who has not played since 12/21, has dominated this Big South rivalry, taking the last seven meetings. They’ve lost their last two games, so motivation will be high for both teams.

Though Campbell is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and Winthrop is 0-5 ATS as a favorite, I am backing the chalk in this one. This is for a number of reasons. One is where the game is being played. Winthrop has won all three previous home games this year while averaging 85 points. 

Campbell’s last win over a Division I foe took place all the way back on November 27th. They defeated Stetson by just two points. 

Though Campbell is perfect against the spread when getting points, they were underdogs of 7.5 or more in all three games. As a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points, the Fighting Camels are 1-5 ATS in their last six. Last Wednesday was their first game since 12/22 and they shot just 40% overall and 16.7% from behind the arc.

Winthrop obviously has had Campbell’s number in the past. These teams play very different brands of basketball. Winthrop likes to get out and run while Campbell plays slow. The problem for the Camels is they only average 61.7 points per contest on the road. As a small underdog, that’s not nearly enough to cover against Winthrop on the road. Lay the points with WINTHROP

Cleveland State is off a one-point win at Robert Morris. That puts the Vikings at 5-0 in Horizon League play. They’ve won three straight and 9 of 10 overall. The only loss in that stretch of games came by five points, in overtime, at Oklahoma State (a team that just beat Texas on Saturday!)

The Vikings’ success in the Horizon League dates back to last season when they shared the regular season crown with Wright State and then won the Conference Tournament. CSU should not have much difficulty defeating in-state rival Youngstown State this afternoon.

YSU is coming off a loss, 71-61 to IPFW, leaving them at 9-6 overall and 2-3 the last five games. One of the Penguins’ two recent victories was against a non-DI team. The other win was by four at last place Robert Morris. The last three losses have been by a total of 55 points.

These two Ohio schools simply are not in the same class. Cleveland State swept the two games last year, winning by an average of 16 points. The Vikings have covered 32 of the last 46 Horizon League games and in addition to that, they are 3-0 ATS the L3 times they’ve been a road favorite of three points or less.

Youngstown State has only covered one of six home games this year and they aren’t getting nearly enough here to buck that trend. Lay the points in this one with CLEVELAND STATE

Texas Tech let us down in the game vs. Iowa State, losing 51-47 in what was an ugly performance from both teams. Unfortunately for Red Raiders’ fans, they face an even tougher opponent on Saturday, that being Kansas.

The #6 ranked Jayhawks may not be the favorites in the Big 12 this year (Baylor is), but they remain formidable. Their record is 12-1 and that one loss was by one point, on a buzzer-beater, against Dayton in a Holiday tournament. 

Earlier in the week, KU easily defeated Oklahoma State on the road. It was 74-63 as 6.5 point favorites. The Jayhawks have covered 25 of their last 37 conference games.

Texas Tech’s dreadful shooting in the loss to Iowa State is cause for concern here. The Red Raiders shot 38.8% overall and made only 3 of 17 tries from three. It would be one thing if that were an isolated event. But it was the third time in the last six games where TT did not score 60 points.

Kansas has little difficulty scoring. They average 84.3 points per contest, which is top seven in the country. They scored 73 in the last game despite missing 20 straight shots at one point. Texas Tech, while often good defensively, just can’t compete with this team. Lay the points with KANSAS

more analysis to come

Both Xavier and Butler are off losses here. But, for Xavier, that loss was all the way back on 12/21 - to Villanova 71-58. There’s actually been only one cancellation for the Musketeers - that being Tuesday’s scheduled game vs. Georgetown. So it’s not like this long stretch of inactivity was unexpected. Still though, the #22 team in the country is likely to be “rusty” on Friday night.

Butler did play Tuesday and lost 71-56 to a good Seton Hall team. So this marks the second straight home game vs. a Top 25 opponent. The Bulldogs were 6-1 in Hinkle Fieldhouse prior to losing to Seton Hall.

Defensively, there’s nothing wrong with what Butler is doing. At home, they are allowing less than 60 points per contest. 

This will be just the third true road game for Xavier. They did win at Oklahoma State, but as I mentioned before lost at Villanova. The Musketeers were not favored in either of those two previous road tilts. They are here.

Xavier is 0-4 ATS the last four times it has been a road favorite. Take the points with BUTLER here.

USC is one of three teams still undefeated. They are 12-0 and ranked in the top ten. But it’s been almost three weeks since the Trojans last played a game. I think all the postponements/cancellations lead to a rusty performance tonight against California.

In the time Southern Cal has been out of action, Cal has gotten three games in. They won all three. Overall, they’ve won five straight. The Bears beat Arizona State by 24 on Sunday, a nice warm-up for this game. It was their ninth straight win at home.

The Bears only loss in Berkeley so far was the season opener. They are 8-2 ATS in home games and 8-1 ATS their last nine games, period.

Thus far, Southern Cal has played only three true road games. Two of them were wins by five points or less. The last one was a two-point win at Washington State. This shapes up to be the Trojans’ most difficult game to date.

Cal’s home success is not limited to this year. They are 29-14 ATS L43 home games. Take the points in this one.

Texas Tech is ranked #25 in the country and I believe they are worthy of that ranking. I feel much differently about Iowa State, who checks in ranked #11 in the country. 

The Cyclones just suffered their first loss of the year and it was to #1 Baylor, here at home, 77-72 on New Year’s Day. But just because ISU started the year by winning its first 12 games doesn’t necessarily mean this is one of the best teams in the country.

On the contrary, if you check out the various power ranking systems, you’ll see that Iowa State is not viewed as favorably by the oddsmakers as they are by the pollsters. They’ve been an underdog in five games, covering all five. That’s nice, but unlikely to continue.

The Cyclones finished last year with a 2-22 record! They were 0-18 in the Big 12, the first time a team went winless in this conference since TCU in 2014.

Texas Tech has had Iowa State’s number the last two years. The Red Raiders have won - and covered - all four meetings. All four wins have been by at least 20 points.

Iowa State is a team you’re going to want to start fading. I obviously expect them to lose tonight. Texas Tech is a top 10 team defensively that limits opponents to 31% shooting on threes. Iowa State was 1 of 14 on three point attempts vs. Baylor. Take the points with TEXAS TECH

VCU has won four in a row while Dayton is just 2-2 in its last four. But this game takes place in Dayton and I think the home team is a bargain as a short favorite.

The Flyers have won four straight at home. That includes wins by 38 and 39 points. They also upset Va Tech here. The last time the team was in action, it defeated Southern U 69-60. 

VCU doesn’t score a whole heck of a lot and they are 0-3 ATS the previous two years as a road underdog of three points or less. The Rams have had their last four games either postponed or cancelled because of COVID-19, so that four-game win streak doesn’t really mean all that much. It’s been three weeks since they last played a game. 

Offensively, VCU is only 272nd in adjusted efficiency. They shoot below 30% on three-point attempts and turn the ball over on nearly one-quarter of their possessions.

Dayton has also had to postpone its last two games. But a key edge they have in this matchup comes on two-point field goals. The Flyers are 12th in the country in FG% inside the three-point line. I say lay the points with DAYTON

7-4 Florida State invades Winston-Salem on Tuesday to take on 11-3 Wake Forest. The hosts have lost two in a row, but both defeats were on the road by single digits. FSU has won its last two games, including a narrow 83-81 win at NC State on New Year’s Day.

Four of FSU’s last six games have been decided by three points or less. So they’re getting used to nail biters. Of the four close calls, the Seminoles have won two and lost two. They are 1-5 ATS in the last six games and their number of points scored and allowed has risen during this time. I think that this game will be a little more low-scoring. 

Now, predicting a low-scoring game may seem perplexing to some as Wake is coming off a 94-82 loss to Miami. But that was a road game. At home, the Demon Deacons are 8-0 and allowing only 64.1 points per contest. When they play host, opponents are shooting just 38.5% for the year. 

Miami shot better than 60% against Wake Forest on Saturday. Also, the Demon Deacons shot 54% themselves. Expect those percentages to come way down here. It’s rare to see both teams shoot that well in a game. Similarly, Florida State had to deal with a 32-point effort from NC State’s Dereon Seabron in its last game. It’s highly unlikely that anyone on Wake Forest is going to turn in that kind of singular effort tonight. 

FSU just missed out on covering its last time out. They are 7-2 Under the previous nine times they’ve been off an ATS loss. Play on UNDER

Wisconsin is 10-2 but figures to be in for a proverbial “rude awakening” when they face #3 Purdue on Monday. The third-ranked Boilermakers have been exceptional so far, winning all eight home games by an average of 28 points per game. Their only loss was to Rutgers - on a buzzer-beater - back on Dec 9. 

West Lafayette has not been Wisconsin’s favorite place to visit. The Badgers are 4-42 here all-time and have failed to cover 14 of the previous 18 times. The last time the Badgers played a road game was at Ohio State on Dec 11. They lost there by 18 points. 

While Purdue has rolled to four straight double digit wins, Wisconsin was involved in a close call in their last game, only beating Illinois State by four points. That was after only beating Nicholls State by three points two weeks before, a game where they had to overcome a 12-point deficit.

The Badgers were missing five reserves against Illinois State, a game which took place only five days ago, and all five are listed as questionable for tonight.

This just looks like a total mismatch to us with Purdue having the most efficient offense in the country and Wisconsin only averaging 64 points when not playing in Madison. The home court advantage is huge. Take Purdue to win and cover.

Ohio State is already 2-0 in conference play, with wins over Penn State and Wisconsin. I think they’ll have little difficulty making it three straight Big 10 wins and five straight wins overall when they face struggling Nebraska tonight.

The Cornhuskers did win their last game 88-74, but that was against Kennesaw State and they barely covered the 13.5-point spread. The ‘Huskers are 0-2 in Big 10 games so far, losing at Indiana by 13 and at home to Michigan by 35. They’ve lost five of six overall, three of the losses coming by double digits.

This will be Ohio State’s first game since a December 11th win over Wisconsin. The Buckeyes have a win over Duke this year as well. They are 3-1 vs. Top 25 opponents this season and ranked #13 themselves.

Nebraska is obviously not ranked and is really no match for the Buckeyes here. The Cornhuskers are 0-4 ATS their last four games as an underdog and 5-13 ATS their last 18 games as a home dog.

Nebraska is shooting just 27.5% from three-point land this year. Ohio State is at 38.6%. Look for the Buckeyes to easily cover this number

Baylor/Iowa State

These are two of the top teams in College Basketball. Baylor, the defending National Champions, is rated #1 in the country. Iowa State, also undefeated coming into this game, is #8. Expect a defensive-minded affair. 

The success of Iowa State this season has certainly been a bit shocking. Key to the success is them being one of the top defensive teams in the country. The Cyclones rank #7 in the number of points per possession allowed and give up just 56.1 points per game. 

But Baylor is even better defensively, in terms of the number of points per possession allowed. They are 4th in that department. Additionally, the Bears give up just 56.8 points per game.

The last three Baylor games have all gone Over. But their last two opponents were Alcorn State and Northwestern State, two clearly overmatched teams. The Bears scored 94 and 104 points in those wins. They won’t be able to score anything close to that against Iowa State. 

Iowa State was 2-22 last year, so them turning around and starting this season 12–0 is something not anyone saw coming. Since the opener, the Cyclones have allowed more than 64 points in only one game. Neither of these teams like to play all that fast and it’s New Year’s Day, so the shots won’t be falling with any great regularity. 10* NEW YEAR’S SHOWDOWN on the UNDER Baylor/Iowa State

Memphis/Tulane

Memphis is 6-4, but it's 0-2 on the road. Tulane is 3-6 overall, including 2-2 at home. When these teams played last year, Memphis pulled away for a 61-46 win and the total stayed well "under" the posted number of 130.

I expect a similar final combined score this season as well.

The Green Wave average 72.1 PPG, while Memphis averages 77.7. However, each is underrated on the defensive end of the floor as well.

Each also comes in rested after having a few games postponed due to COVID. 

Look for this conference matchup to be a competitive one, but also a lower-scoring defensive affair. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Memphis/Tulane. 

Yale/Saint Mary's

Outright win? I'm not calling for that. But I think the hungry underdog visiting side can comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample spread that it's been afforded tonight.

This is Saint Mary's final non-conference matchup of the year. It has a big New Year's day game against San Francisco. I say the Gaels get caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent today.

The Bulldogs are 6-7 after a 69-60 loss to Monmouth. Overall Yale averages 72.8 PPG, while conceding 69.8.

The Gaels are 11-3 and they're off a 75-58 win over Missouri State. Overall they average 67.5 PPG, while allowing 58.

I think Yale is catching Saint Mary's at a great time here. The Bulldogs are putting up over 70 PPG on average and I think they'll be much more competitive than what this line is suggesting. 10* COACHES CORNER on Yale. 

Brown/Syracuse

The Brown Bears are 8-5. They've won three straight on the road, but I think they'll predictably struggle here in this difficult road venue and against this "step up" in competition.

Syraucse had its two game win streak snapped with B2B losses, falling 67-63 to Villanova on a neutral court, before then dropping a 79-75 decision at Georgetown as a 3-point favorite in its last outing. The Orange though average 77.5 PPG, while Brown averages just 72.8.

The Orange are far superior defensively and have one last opportunity here for a tune-up befor the majority of league action gets underway.

Look for Brown to take a step back after three straight wins and for the Orange to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn.

10* Coaches Corner on Syracuse. 

Fresno State/Weber State

The Bulldogs are 9-3 this year. They're coming off a 55-50 road loss at Utah on Tuesday and I think they'll have a predictable "letdown" here as well in this difficult road venue. 

Orlando Robinson averages 18.2 points and 8.2 boards for Fresno State. So far the Bulldogs have conceded just 55.9 PPG this season.

The Wildcats are 9-3 so far as well. They're off an 89-71 home loss to BYU. Koby McEwan leads the way most nights by averaging 16.4 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. Weber State is so far allowing 68.4 PPG.

The level of competition that each has faced to this point has to be taken into account for both teams. Weber State rebounds here at home and takes advantage of a now vulnerable Bulldogs side. 10* COACHES CORNER on Weber State. 

Kennesaw State/Nebraska

Two teams in need of a win before the X-Mas break go H2H here. I think this one favors the favorite though. The Kennesaw State Owls have lost five of their last seven, while the Nebraska Cornhuskers enter looking to snap a five-game slide.

Kennessaw State averages 76.4 PPG, while allowing 72.1. Chris Youngblood is the star, averaging 13.5 points and 5.4 boards per game. 

Nebraska averages 73.9 PPG, while conceding 76.6. Alzono Verge Jr. averages 16.4 points and 5.8 boards per game. 

The Owls have lost five straight on the road. Yes, Nebraska has struggled to this point, but the level of competition for each school must be factored in here as well. 

The Cornhuskers will enjoy a week off over Christmas before getting into their conference schedule and I believe they make the most of this "tune up." Kennesaw State has lost five straight on the road and I don't trust its defense here in this difficult road venue.

Look for Nebraska to play hard until the final horn. Lay the points. 10* GAME OF YEAR on Nebraska. 

Northwestern State/Texas A&M

I think the 3-9 Northwestern State Demons come in under the radar here agains the 8-2 Texas A&M Aggies.

The Demons are off a 104-50 win over subdivision Southwest Adventist. Kendal Coleman continues to be a consistent bright spot by averaging 15.6 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. 

The Aggies have been impressive, but I say they have a small letdown here afrer their big 83-73 win over Oregon State last time out. Quenton Jackson is the lone double-digit scorer for the Aggies with 12.5 PPG.

Northwestern State averages 70.2 PPG, while allowing 79.7.

The Aggies average 72 PPG, while conceding 62.2.

Look for the visitors to hang around late. 10* COACHES CORNER on Northwestern State. 

Maryland Eastern Shore/Charlotte 

Both teams enter at 5-5. 

The Hawks enter off a 79-43 win over St. Mary's AD. Nathaniel Pollard had 16 points and 8 boards. I was impressed by their defensive play and I believe that confidence/momentum is carried over here.

In fact, Maryland Eastern Shore enters having won three straight. 

Charlotte will be out to rebound from an 82-79 loss to Wake Forest. Jahmir Young exploded for 27 points, 9 boards and 4 assists for the 49ers.

Both teams have seen the total go "over" the number in two straight, but I expect this competitive contest to be a tighter defensive one in the end. 10* TOTAL OF WEEK on the under. 

Robert Morris/Bowling Green

I think that Bowling Green gets caught "looking past" the lowly 1-8 Robert Morris Colonials. Most recently Robert Morris fell 85-74 to Florida Gulf Coast. The team is led by Kahiel Spear, who averages 13.7 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. The Colonials average 70 PPG, while allowing 77.7. 

Bowling Green gets caught complacent after its 73-72 win over Oakland last time out. Daeqwon Plowden leads the way most nights for the Falcons with 15.1 points and 7.3 RPG. On the season BG is averaging 77.2 PPG, while allowing 74.7.

Bowling Green is just 6-24-2 ATS in its last 32 home games. With the X-Mas break upcoming, look for the Falcons to take the foot off the gas in the second half.

10* COACHES CORNER on Robert Morris. 

Southern Utah/Michigan

Off an upset 75-65 home loss to Minnesota as a 13.5-point favorite, and with their X-Mas Break up next before a game at UCF on December 30th, I believe the Huskies get caught looking right past their lowly non-conference opponent tonight.

The Wolverines only average 72.1 PPG, which ranks 182nd. Southern Utah averages 81.6, which ranks 24th.

Of course, the Thunderbirds early numbers need to be taken with a proverbial 'grain of salt' due to the level of competition it's faced, but there's no question that Southern Utah has already exceeded expectations in the Big Sky.

No outright, but closer than expected. 8* PLAY on Southern Utah. 

UTRGV/UTSA

I like the Vaqueros to keep this one close. UTRGV is 4-7, while the UTSA Roadrunners are 6-4. 

UTRGV is off a 70-60 loss to Texas Southern. RayQuan Taylor was a bright spot in defeat with 16 points and six boards. 

UTSA is 3-1 in its last four. It's off a tighter than expectd 78-73 win over Sam Houston on Saturday. 

The Roadrunners' strength of schedule has to be questioned somewhat. I see this one coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, so that means I'm grabbing the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Texas Rio Grande Valley. 

Dartmouth/Stanford

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring "overs" of late, but I think this non-conference matchup will produce a lower-scoring game finally.

Dartmouth is out to snap a four-game slide. The Big Green average 70.9 PPG, while allowing 70.8. Clearly the margin of error is razor slim for Dartmouth most nights.

The Big Green's defense catchs somewhat of a break today facing Stanford's methodical attack that produces 69.9 PPG on average. 

The Cardinal though will need to get things figured out on the defensive end before conference play gets underway if they have any hopes of competing this season, as they allow 70 PPG on average so far.

Stanford will have to be cautious to not get caught looking ahead here, despite this being an important final tune-up. I say the last thing that the home side can do is to turn this into a "track meet." I expect a defensive affair. 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Dartmouth/Stanford. 

Northern Colorado/Arizona

The 6-5 Northern Colorado Bears are going to catch the 9-0 Wilcats looking past them here to their long Christmas break, before a big road conference road trip starting at UCLA on December 30th.

The Bears are off a 74-69 win over South Dakota. They average 74.6 PPG, while allowing 72.8. Clearly, the last thing the visiting side can do is turn this into a faster-paced affair and expect to "hang" with the highest-scoring team in the nation.

Arizona averages 90.7 PPG, while allowing 61.7. The Wildcats though are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine as a non-conference home favoirte in the -23 to -27 points range.

I look for the home side to take the foot off the gas in the second half. No outright, but closer than expected. Northern Colorado 10* COACHES CORNER. 

VMI/Wake Forest

Outright victory? I don't think so. But I do absolutely believe the 7-4 VMI Keydets will keep this one close. Wake Forest is 9-1. 

VMI averages 80.3 PPG and it allows 64.6. Kamdyn Curfman averages 17.6 points and 2.5 boards per game. 

The Demon Deacons average 81.5 PPG, while conceding 65.6. Alondes Williams averages 18.2 points and 6.6 rebounds to lead the team in each category.

Wake Forest is the better overall team, but VMI has the offense to hang around. That's exactly what I'm expecting! 8* PLAY on VMI. 

FAMU/Akron.

The 2-5 Rattlers get ready to take on the 5-3 Zips. Outright win? I'm not calling for that.

But I do think this is a few too many points to be giving up to FAMU.

FAMU enters off a 69-55 loss to Florida Gulf Coast last time out. Bryce Morgan was a bright spot with 13 points (the Rattlers though are 7-1 ATS in their last eight off a SU/ATS loss in which they were held to 55 points or less in.)

The Zips have won three straight. They're the better team. But I think they come in complacent here and get caught looking past their lowly opponent (note that Akron is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a double-digit non-conference home favorite.)

The Rattlers are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 as an underdog. Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Florida A&M.

Austin Peay/North Florida

The Governors are 4-3, but just 1-2 on the road.

North Florida is 2-9 overall, but 2-0 at home.

Austin Peay is off a relatively simple 98-55 home win over Milligan (note though that the Governors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine after a 30 points or greater SU/ATS home victory.) 

The Ospreys are off an 85-55 loss at Florida, but note that they're a near-perfect 6-1 ATS in their last seven off a SU/ATS road loss of 30 or more points.

The level of competition has to be called into question for each side. Numbers are skewed. Home floor is big here. 9* COACHES CORNER on North Florida. 

Denver/New Mexico

New Mexico is a heavy favorite. Denver has struggled this year, but I think it comes in under the radar tonight. 

The Lobos have been inconsistent. They beat New Mexico State 101-94 on the road, before then falling 78-76 to the Aggies at home in the following one.

Denver will have an opportunity here against a New Mexico side that ranks 266th in terms of defensive efficiency rankings. 

New Mexico is getting great pla from Jamal Mashburn Jr., who is avearging 21 PPG, but the Lobos are already 0-2 ATS this year as a favorite.

Denver on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road underdog.

I think the Pioneers keep this one interesting down the stretch. 10* COACHES CORNER on Denver. 

CMU/YSU

Youngstown is a heavy favorite here, but this line is just a little TOO steep for in my reckoning.

CMU enters off a 97-70 loss to Western Illinois. Cameron Healy was a bright spot with a career-high 24 points. Kevin Miller added 15. 

Off B2B road conference victoriees, I think the Penguins get caught flat-footed here. Most recently they beat Green Bay 82-58. Tevin Olison led all scorers with 20 points. 

The Chips though are 3-1 ATS in their last four after allowing 90 or more points in their previous game, while the Penguins are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

The Penguins are averaging only 66 PPG at home, while CMU is averaging 61.2 PPG on the road.

So grab the points here and expect a solid cover at the very least. 8* play on Central Michigan. 

South Dakota/Northern Colorado

South Dakota is 5-3 and I think it's going to give 5-5 Northern Colorado a run for its money this evening.

The Coyotes come in off a 93-37 win over Waldorf College. Where's Waldorf? Erik Oliver solved the puzzle and scored 20 points and had had three rebounds as well.

Northern Colorado is off a tight 78-75 win over Montana on Saturday, getting 18 points from Daylen Kountz.

The Bears though are just 1-5 ATS in their last six following an ATS victory.

South Dakota on the other hand is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after scoring 90 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing.

This one is going to come down to the wire. I'm grabbing the points. South Dakota. 10* Game Of The Week. 

Ohio State/Penn State

Ohio State is off a 71-66 upset win over No. 1 Duke on Tuesday. It came from behind after being down by 13 points at halftime. EJ Lidell had 14 points and 11 boards, while Zed Key led all scorers with 20 points.

Call it a trap, call it a letdown, call you what you will, but I think that the Buckeyes are primed for a minor letdown here.

The 4-3 Penn State Nittany Lions don't have the same luxury though after falling 63-58 to Miami on Wednesday. John Harrar had 16 points, but the Nittany Lions turned the ball over 14 times. 

Ohio State averages 74.7 PPG, and it allows 68.9. Penn State is averaging 67.3 PPG, while conceding only 64.1. 

I say Ohio State has difficulty producing the same effort for a second straight time on the road. Look for the hungrier team to keep it close, if not come out on top. 10* COACHES CORNER on Penn State.

Arkansas Little Rock/Arkansas

I think Arkansas takes the foot off the gas in the second half here as it gets caught looking ahead to the start of its conference schedule, starting with a tough game at Okalahoma, followed by at Mississippi State.

UALR has so far beaten the teams it should, and struggled against the "better" competition. That was the case last time out, falling 86-55 at Colorado State.

But this line is inflated here now. Note that UALR is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as well after a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 55 or less points in.

This line is a little TOO big. Look for a comfortable backdoor cover from the visiting side. UALR 10* COACHES CORNER. 

VMI/Portland

I think the hungry 4-4 VMI Keydets will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. 

The Portland Pilots come in complacent at 7-2 in my reckoning. 

The Keydets enter off an 88-40 blowout win over Summit. Kamdyn Curfman had 16 points. 

The Pilots have played some weak competition as well this year though, most recently a 77-68 win over Incarnate Word. Mike Meadows had 22 points and three boards in the win.

The Pilots though are a terrible 2-8 ATS in their last ten at home, while VMI is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a SU/ATS win in which it held its opponent to 50 or fewer points in.

Grab the points. 8* PLAYBOOK on VMI.