The set-up: I think 12-2 Dayton gets caught "looking past" lowly 3-10 St. Joe's today. Most recently Dayton got the better of La Salle 84-58. The Flyers are one of the highest scoring teams in the nation and it's difficult to say anything negative about them. I simply feel that they come in complacent here, while I believe the Hawks risk life and limb here to try and pull off the upset. Keep your eyes on Ryan Daly for the home side, he's the only Hawk to average in double digits in scoring this year. 

The pick: Additionally note that Dayton is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a road favorite of 16.5 points or higher on the tail of a three games or more unbeaten streak, while St. Joe's is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games as an underdog in the 15.5 to 21.5 points range. I think the hungry home side keeps this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on St. Joseph's.  

The set-up: I think 5-10 Cleveland State brings everything it has this afternoon to try and pull off this upset vs. 9-6 Youngstown State. This is the home opener for Cleveland State as far as Confernece play is concerned, and that's always a big deal. Cleveland State opened up league action by splitting on the road vs. UIC and IUPUI. The Vikings' record though is more indicative of the level of competition they had to play in non-conference action, as those opponents had a combined record of 95-62. Off an 82-80 win over IUPUI, I like Cleveland State to keep the momentum rolling hee at home. 

The pick: And if recent history is any precedence, then the Vikings have to be loving their chances here, as they took both games vs. Youngstown State last season. I'm throwing the revenge factor out the window. That was last year and the Vikings can't afford to take the foot off the gas now after the slow start. The outright is indeed possible in my opinion, but in the end I'll grab the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on Cleveland State.

The set-up:

The pick:

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Oakland.

The set-up: I'm not calling for an outright upset here. The 3-9 St. Joe's Hawks though won't be lacking for motivation today as they try to pull off the upset vs. the 10-3 Spiders. Richmond's early record has much to do with strength of schedule. The same can also be said of the Hawks. The Spiders though enter having lost two straight, falling 90-78 to Alabama and then getting crushed at home by Radford 73-58. St. Joes on the other hand comes in off a momentum building 84-69 victory over William and Mary. The Spiders average 76.3 PPG and the Hawks average 71.6. 

The pick: I think it sets up well for the hungry Hawks to keep this one close from a situational stand point, but also note that the Hawks have responded well in this spot from an ATS angle as well, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a dog. The Spiders on the other hand are a poor 6-10 ATS in their last 16 after a loss by ten points or more. I look for the Hawks to build off their latest performance and to keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest.

10* UPSET SHOCKER BEST OF THE BEST on St. Joes.

The set-up: Wyoming beat Nebraska Wesleyan 82-68 in its last outing, while Boise State got the better of CSU Northridge on Saturday, winning 103-72. Jake Hendricks had 21 points for the Cowboys in their latest win. I think the lowly Cowboys catch the Broncos complacent here. Boise State has won three straight and I do indeed expect it to get caught looking past its lowly opponent today. 

The pick: The numbers/trends support us as well, as note that Boise State is just 9-12 ATS in its last 21 off a home win by ten points or more, including only 1-3 ATS this year, while Wyoming is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a home victory. I like the improving visiting side to keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Wyoming.

The set-up: Cleary I'm not predicting an outright win for 2-11 Detroit today, but I do think that the 13-1 Bulldogs will get caught "looking past" their lowly non-conference opponent today to the New Years break and then conference action. Most recently the Titans were competitive in another loss to Oakland, falling 78-69. Overall Detroit averages 66.9 PPG and it allows 79.8. Keep your eyes on Antoine Davis, who averages 25.2 points and 4.4 assists per game. The Bulldogs average 88.2 PPG and they allow 68.1. Filip Petrusev leads Gonzaga in scoring this season, averaging 16.7 PPG. 

The pick: Note though that Detroit is already 3-1 ATS this year after failing to cover in two of its last three vs. the spread, while Gonzaga is already just 3-4 ATS this year after three or more SU victories. I look for the Bulldogs to go up early and then to take the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points.

8* DESTRUCTION on Detroit.

The set-up: Wisconsin Green Bay is 5-9 and Northern Kentucky is 9-4. The Phoenix are the "hungrier" team here and while their defense leaves everything to be desired, they average a whopping 82.7 PPG. Most recently Green Bay fell 90-84 to a tough Wright State team. The Phoenix often play five guards on the floor at once and I think they'll stretch the Norse today, who rely on their play in the paint to score. UNK has won three of its last four after pulling away for a 74-64 win over Milwaukee last time out. 

The pick: I'll point out though that the Phoenix are already 6-3 ATS on the road this season and 6-1 ATS in their last seven after a loss by six points or less. UNK on the other hand is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range and interestingly 0-2 ATS this year vs. poor defensive teams which concede 77 plus points per contest. I think the Phoenix' unorthodox style and high-scoring rate proves to be the difference in this one. That said, let's grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Wisconsin Green Bay.

The set-up: The 1-9 Cornell Big Red are going to slide under the radar here vs. the 10-2 Nittany Lions in my opinion. In their most recent 80-76 loss at Hartford, Cornell was led by Jimmy Boeheim with 26 points. Cornell though is on the brink though, as note that it's lost five games by four points or less and a sixth against reigning Patriot League champ Colgate in a game it led by double digits in the second half. The Lions have won ten in a row and they're perfect at home. But with the New Year's break on the horizon, before conference play starts with a game at home vs. Iowa, I do indeed feel this sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the home side. 

The pick: Cornell is also 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog, while Penn State is only 1-4 ATS in its last five off a home win by ten points or more. Grab the points.

10* SHOCKER SPECIAL on Cornell.

The set-up: The Yellow Jackets come in hungry here as they've lost four of their last five over the last two weeks. Overall the Yellow Jackets average 65.6 PPG and allow 67.8. The Warriors had their two-game win streak snapped by Washington last time out. Overall Hawaii averages 71.3 PPG, while coneding 72. 

The pick: Georgia Tech though is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 following a SU loss, while Hawaii is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 tournament games. Strengh of schedule is the issue here and GT has played a much more difficult one to this point. These early numbers are skewed. Expect a decisive victory from the Power 5 Conference member today and lay the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Georgia Tech.

The set-up: Canisius has won three staright in this series, including a 68-62 victory back in March last year. The Golden Griffins are 5-5, but the Saints are just 3-5. All that said, I think the hungry home side finally bounces back here and gets some revenge in this series in a big way at home tonight to open MAAC play. Note that Canisius is only 1-4 in true road contests this season, most recently falling 82-73 at Buffalo. 

The pick: The Saints are a "different" team at home. So far they're 3-0 there this season. Siena comes in with momentum as well after besting Bucnell 81-71 last time out. Finally note that the Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while the Golden Griffins are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. teams with a losing SU record. With revenge on their minds and momentum on their side, I like the Saints to dominate from start to finish. Lay the points.

10* MID-MAJOR GAME OF THE WEEK on Siena.

The set-up: Cal Irvine comes to Illinois Chicago with a 7-6 record. The Flames are the "hungrier" team here in my estimation after starting just 4-8. UIC returns home for the first time in three games, which I believe is going to help it tremendously. UCI though is playing its third straight away from friendly confines and I believe this works against it. UCI comes in off a dishearening 67-61 loss to UTEP in the championship game of the Sun Bowl Tournament on December 17th as well. 

The pick: UIC is fighting hard and will be in a particularly foul mood here after falling 67-66 to Illinois State last time out. Tarkus Ferguson was a bright spot in defeat with 22 points. Not as well that UIC is already 3-1 ATS this season off a road loss, while UCI is only 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite. In a contest which I envision coming down to the final moments, I'm grabbing the points.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Illinois Chicago.

The set-up: Hofstra is 7-4 and Princeton is 3-7. Hofstra enters off a win over Stony Brook, after falling by 28 to St. Bonaventure. Overall the Pride average 77.6 PPG, but I think they'll have their hands full from this suddenly surging home side. 

The pick: After a slow start though the Tigers come in off two straight victories, inlcuding a 90-86 OT win over Iona at the inaugural Air Force Reserve Basketball Hall of Fame Invitational at the Barclays Center. NOte that the Tigers are also 7-3 ATS in their last ten following an ATS victory, while Hofstra is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine following a victory and only 1-4 ATS in its last five road games vs. teams with a losing road record. I think the momentum the Tigers are riding is real and I look for them to carry it over for at least one more game. Lay the points.

10* MID MAJOR MAULING on Princeton.

The set-up: I think the 1-5 Marist Red Foxes give the 6-2 Rider Broncos everything they can handle. Marist is only averaging 56.2 PPG, but it's been good defensively in conceding only 62. 

The pick: The Broncs have won four in a row and I think they come in complacent here. On paper clearly Rider is the better team, but I think the situation and the numbers point to the Red Foxes being able to cover with this huge number they've been afforded. Note as well that Marist is a solid 4-1 ATS in its last five off a close road loss by three points or less, while Rider is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Marist.

The set-up: CSUN is only 2-8 and the Pacific Tigers are 9-3, but I'm expecting a competitive battle until the final horn. CSUN comes in highly motivated after three straight losses, while Pacific comes in complacent after four straight victories. The numbers on paper firmly favor the Tigers, but as stated above, I think from a situational stand point this one sets up great for the hungry Matadors. 

The pick: Note as well that Pacific is 2-4 ATS in its last six home games, while CSUN is 4-0 ATS in its last four on the road. Pacific is also 0-3 ATS the last three in this series in front of the home town crowd. I think the "hungrier" team will at the very least, keep this one very tight until the final moments. Grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on CS Northridge.

The set-up: 8-1 Stanford is at 3-7 San Jose State for a Saturday night non-conference matchup. I'm not calling for the outright upset, but I do think that the visitors will get caught flat footed here vs. this hungry home side. SJSU has lost five straight, so motivation won't be an issue here. 

The pick: Seneca Knight has scored in double-digit in six of his last seven games for the Spartans and I predict the SJSU standout will have a big game on his home floor. The Spartans are struggling in all categories, but I think from a situational stand point this one sets up nicely for them, as the Cardinal get caught looking ahead to their game at home vs. the surging San Francisco Dons. No outright, but a comfortable cover through the back door once it's all said and done.

9* PLAY-BOOK on San Jose State. 

The set-up: The 8-2 San Francisco Dons are at Cal State Fullerton to take on the 3-7 Titans. San Francisco has the much better early numbers across the board, but I think the desperate/hungry home side will give the Conference leader everything it can handle. San Fran comes in off a highly satisfying 76-64 win over Cal and I think it does indeed come in complacent here. 

The pick: Cal State on the other hand will be desperate here to pull off the upset and snap a five-game slide, most recently falling 66-55 to San Diego. San Fran though has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 as a road favorite, while Cal State has gone 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 60 points or less in three straight games. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a war until the final horn. 

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Cal State Fullerton.

The set-up: The 7-2 Toledo Rockets are at Detroit to take on the 1-7 Titans. I think the hungry home side though will keep this one more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Rockets have won four straight, but I think that success in this case is going to lead to complacency. Detroit though has lost five in a row and I believe it comes out and throws everything it has at its non-conference opponent today in an attempt to get off the schneid. On paper the Rockets are clearly the better team, but I think they'll be in for a fight here vs. this desperate home side.

The pick: Keep your eyes on Detroit's Antoine Davis, who is averaging 24 points and five assists per game. Note as well that Toledo is just 3-4 ATS as a favorite this year and only 1-3 ATS in its last four after scoring 80 points or more. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

8* DESTRUCTION on Detroit.

The set-up: The Hoosiers opened up the season 9-0. Then last week they lost their first Big Ten Game 84-64 to Wisconsin. This is the Hoosiers first home conference game of the year, but I think they'll come out flat here vs. this hungry 4-5 Cornhuskers side. Note that the Hoosiers have only played one ranked team so far, so their win/loss record needs to be taken with a grain of salt in my opinion. Nebraska comes in off a 95-76 loss to a red hot Creighton team, but I think it bounces back here and keeps this one more competitive than what this spread would suggest. 

The pick: Note as well that Indiana is just 8-13 ATS in its last 21 home games following a road conference loss of 20 points or more, while Nebraska is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games as an underdog of 15 points or more and off of a loss of 15 points or more. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* COACH'S CLINIC on Nebraska.

The set-up: I think this is a non-conference opponent in which K-State will get caught looking past. Alabama State is just 1-7, most recently comign off a 73-59 loss to South Dakota on Monday. Tobi Ewuosho continues to lead Alabama State in scoring at 13.8 points per game, while he is also grabbing a team-high 6.3 rebounds per game. K-State is 5-3, but I think it comes out flat here after it's disappointing 73-65 loss to Marquette on December 7th. In fact, the loss ended a 33-game home winning streak vs. non-conference opponents (in the loss the Wildcats shot a season-low in field goal percentage at 32.3 percent.) 

The pick: Alabama State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference games following a loss by ten or more points, while K-State is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 non-conference home games following an ATS home loss. The Wildcats have a ten day break after this game before a home contest vs. St. Louis. Alabama State is right back on the road at Boise State this weekend though. I think the hungry dog keeps this ine competitive late. Grab the points.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Alabama State.

The set-up: The theme of taking underdogs in this five-game report continues with the 3-6 Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix are at UCF to take on the 6-2 Golden Knights. The Phoenix don't play much defense, but they're able to put points on the board with the best of them, with four players averaging in double figures. Overall the Phoenix average 73 PPG and the Knights average 82. 

The pick: But after three straight victories, I think the Knights get caught flat footed here vs. the up-tempo Phoenix, who are ranked as the 26th fastest pace out of 300 teams. Green Bay is also 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog, while UCF is only 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 65 points or less in three straight games. No outright, but decided late. Grab the points.

8* play on Wisconsin Green Bay.

The set-up: 4-5 Monmouth is hungry for a win here, but 1-6 Princeton is desperate. I like the Tigers to pull away down the stretch in front of the home town crowd once it's all said and done. This is the only favorite I'm taking in this five-game report on Tuesday night. Monmouth averages 64.7 PPG and I think it'll have its hands full with an improving Tigers' team which just fell 82-76 to Drexel (Jaelin Llewellyn led the way with 28 points and three assists.)

The pick: I'll point out that Princeton has been money in the bank for bettors in this position as well, going 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a losing SU record, while Monmouth is a poor 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU victory. Lay the points, expect a blowout. 

8* play on Princeton.

The set-up: The Tigers' big second half push came up short in their last game, as they fell to 4-5 in their 83-67 loss to Loyola Marymount. Eli Scott led Loyola Marymount (4-5) with a triple-double (21 points, 13 assists, 13 boards) while Ivan Alipiev chipped in with 12 points and three assists. 

The pick: ULM is 18-3 in its last 21 home games, including a perfect 4-0 this season. That said I think the Warhawks have their hands full today in the I-20 Rivalry. Grambling State has four players that average in double figures and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs do indeed point to this one coming down to the wire. Therefore, let's grab the ample points provided.

8* play on Grambling State.

The set-up: St. Joe's is only 2-8 and it enters having lost seven in a row. Most recently the Hawks fell 78-66 to No. 20 ranked Villanova. Temple is 6-2 with quality victories over USC, Texas A&M and Davidson. So will the Owls get caught looking past their lowly opponent? I think in some small way they do. Temple only allows 60 PPG, but the Hawks have shown a propensity to score on the road this year already, averaging 74 PPG. Yes the Hawks have been terrible defensivel, but they catch a break here facing a Temple offense which isn't running away from anyone. 

The pick: Additionally note that St. Joes is 6-1 ATS in its last seven off a home loss, while Temple is just 10-15 ATS in its last 25 as a home favorite, including 0-3 ATS this year. I think the hungry visiting side keeps this one competitive late, so I'm grabbing the ample points.

8* play on St. Joseph's.

The set-up: Here's another "David vs. Goliath" matchup and while I'm obviously not calling for an outright upset here, I do think that the hungry 1-7 Detroit Titans can keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest vs. the 6-3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. ND looks vulnerable after two straight losses as well. Yes the Irish have beaten up on the "lesser" competition, but it's already lost to heavyweights Maryland, Boston College and North Carolina. Notre Dame is clearly the better team, but the Titans do have a stand-out in Antoine Davis, who averages 23.8 PPG. 

The pick: The Titans have responded well in this spot for bettors as well, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games, while ND is just 11-21 ATS in its last 32 as a home favorite and only 2-5 ATS in all non-conference games alread this season. I like the hungry visiting side to keep this one close down the stretch.

10* play on Detroit.

The set-up: Interesting to note, this game won't actually be played on the Dukes home court, as the UPMC Copper Fieldhouse is being renovated. Instead its at the Kerr Fitness Center ten minutes away. The Lions won't be lacking for motivation here, as they fell to Bryant, 67-65, on a last-second steal and dunk in Smithfield. Columbia got a career-high 25 points from Randy Brumant, who also had 12 boards and also 22 points from Mike Smith. The Dukes are 7-0 after a 71-58 win over VMI on Wednesday, but I think Duquesne will have its hands full here vs. a Lions team which has plenty of talent to match. 

The pick: Additionally note that Columbia is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog or pick, while the Dukes are just 9-14 ATS in their last 23 as a home favorite or pick. I think the "hungrier" team catches the complacent home side flat-footed and I expect it to comfortably sneak in through the back door once it's all said and done. Grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Columbia.

The set-up: I think the 2-5 Thundering Herd can keep this one competitive until the final moments vs. the 6-2 Toledo Rockets. The Herd play with immediate revenge here, as they fell to Toledo 96-70 at home just last week. Marshall then lost to Akron, while Toledo defeated Cleveland State in its last trip to the court. 

The pick: The Rockets have won three straight, but I think they'll have much more of a fight on their hands vs. Taevion Kinsey and the hungry visiting side. I'll point out as well that Marshall has responded well for bettors in a "revenge" role, going 8-2 ATS in its last ten in revenging a loss where an opponent scored 85 or more points. Toledo on the other hand has struggled in this position, going 13-16 ATS in its last 29 as a home favorite or pick, including only 1-2 ATS this season. In a contest which I envision coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Marshall.

The set-up: EMU is 7-1 and Detroit is just 1-6. Detroit's had a difficult early schedule, while the Eagles have had an easy go of it to open the campaign. Note that three of EMU's four wins vs. D1 teams have come by six points or less. Also note that the Eagles have allowed at least 77 points in each of their last two games. 

The pick: Detroit's first two games of the year came on the road vs. good ACC opponents. The Titans have one of the most dynamic players in the country in Antonie Davis though and I expect this team to finally show up here today. According to the Kenpom.com rankings, EMU has been the "luckiest" team so far this season and I believe that luck finally runs out here vs. this battle tested and extremely desperate home side. Grab the points.

10* MAULING on Detroit.

The set-up: The Central Arkansas Bears won't be going down without a fight here. The Bears come in off back-to-back OT losses, most recently falling 78-72 to Prairie View A&M. Hayden Koval was a bright spot in a losing cause with 20 points and 11 boards, along with three blocked shots. 

The pick: But the Bears are still only 1-6, while the mighty Wichita State Shockers are 6-1. Simply put I believe that the home side goes up big early and then takes the foot off the gas in the second half. The Shockers are off their first loss of the year in a 75-63 setback to WVU in the championship game of the Cancun Challenge. I like the battle tested Bears to keep pace late. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Central Arkansas. 

The set-up: The 1-7 Matadors come in off their first win of the season and I think that CSUN keeps the foot on the gas here as it travels to the Pacific Northwest. It was a quality win as well, erasing a ten-point second-half deficit to beat Fresno STate 73-72. Terrell Gomez led the way with 21 points after halftime. Portland won this game 80-77 at the Matadome last year, so the revenge factor also comes into play here (Gomez led all scorers in that one with 25 points.) 

The pick: I think the 6-1 home side comes in complacent. Most recently the Pilots held on for a 65-56 win over Incarnate Word. Portland has struggled in this spot for bettors as well, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six after having won four or five of its last six games. I think this one comes right down to the wire and as such, I'm grabbing the handful of points.

9* MID-MAJOR MAULING on CS Northridge.

The set-up: Akron had won seven straight in this series, before Marshall took the last two. The Zips are 5-2 and the Herd are 2-4. Akron is 5-0 at home and it's two road losses have come against Louisville and WVU. Akron is ranked 168th in the country in offensive efficiency, shooting 32.7 percent. Overall the Zips concede just 62.5 PPG. 

The pick: The Herd are hungry for a big win here obviously. So far they're averaging 70.8 PPG, while allowing 73.7. Taevion Kinsey is averaging 14.8 PPG. On paper, Akron would appear to have the advantage. But I think both sides early numbers are skewed somewhat due to the level of competition. I absolutely believe though that Marshall is the "hungrier" team here. I'll point out additionally that the Herd are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a winning SU record, while the Zips are 0-4 ATS in their last four as a radof favorite. Clearly the outright isn't out of the question, but let's grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Marshall.

The set-up: Of course I'm not predicting an outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Simply put I think the 4-2 Wildcats, who return home for this contest, are going to get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent to their highly anticipated Big 12/Big East battle on Saturday night

The pick: K-State also looks vulnerable here after back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Bradley. Note that A&M is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference road games as a 22 point underdog or higher. Grab the points.

10* BEAT-DOWN on Florida A&M.

The set-up: Both teams come in off victories. SIU beat UNC Central, while SLU got the better of Boston College. SIU has to be feeling confident here though as it's won three of the last four in this series, including last year's contest 61-56. Overall the Salukis average 63.4 PPG and allow 38.9 percent shooting from the field. 

The pick: Saint Louis averages 72.7 PPG and it's allowing 37.8 percent shooting from the field. Southern Illinois is also 5-1 ATS in its last six after a win by 15 points or more, while Saint Louis is 0-6 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. Grab the points and expect a spirited battle until the end. 

10* HIGH-ROLLER on Southern Illinois. 

The set-up: I like the 2-5 Pirates to pull off the minor upset here, vs. 3-4 James Madison. JMU fell to Coppin State on Wednesday, while ECU was 1-2 in the Bahamas, but now coming into this contest well rested after an extended break due to the travel associated with the Tournament. The Pirates' rebounding is top 100 in the nation and it's kept them in games early. 

The pick: JMU fell 94-78 to Coppin State last time out. The Dukes allow 73 PPG, so the Pirates' offense has a big opportunity here tonight as well. ECU matches up well vs. the Dukes and note that it's 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing with five of six days rest. Conversely note that this is a spot in which JMU has been a disaster for bettors, going just 7-14 ATS as a favorite. While the outright is possible, in the end I'm grabbing the points.

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on East Carolina. 

The set-up: USC is 5-1 and Fairfield is 1-4. USC though comes in off its first loss of the year and I think it'll still be mentally caught up on that setback. SDSU ended the Trojans five-game win skein. Overall USC averages 77.5 PPG and it allows 66.5. The Stags are averaging 64 PPG and allowing 70.2. To their credit, the Stags have played some stiff competition, most recently calling to SMU 74-55. 

The pick: Note though that the Stags have been money in the bank for bettors in this spot though already this year, going 4-1 ATS as an underdog (note that they're also 7-3 ATS in their last ten tournament contests.) USC on the other hand is just 17-21 ATS in its last 38 after playing a home game and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 vs. schools with losing records. I'm grabbing the points.

10* SITUATIONAL BEATDOWN on Fairfield.

The set-up: Niagara won't be lacking for motivation here as it searches for its first win of the season. Most recently NU fell 73-62 to Bryan on November 18th. The Purple Eagles though play six of their next seven on the road, so there's no question that they'll be out to get off on the "right foot" here. They're also desperate to get off the schneid. They came close vs. Stephen F. Austin, shooting 55 percent from the floor for the first time since 2018, while James Towns had 21 points in a losing cause to Bryant most recently. And with tough games vs. Syracuse, Rutgers, Buffalo and St. Bonaventure, the Purple Eagles will be out to score the upset vs. this "lesser" competition. 

The pick: The Fort Wayne Mastadons are 3-5 this year, including 3-0 at home. Their victories come over suspect competition though and note that they're just 1-6 ATS in their last seven after a blowout win by 20 points or more. Conversely note that Niagara is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range (including 2-0 this year.) In a contest which I see being decided in the final moments, I'll gladly grab all these points.

10* DESTRUCTION on the Niagara.

The set-up: Western Illinois scored its first win of the season in a 113-62 destruction of lowly Central Christian Bible College and while today's opponent is obviously significantly better, I still think the Leathernecks can carry that momentum over here and keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. Dre' Shawn Allen would go on to lead all scorers with a career-high 17 points in the victory. 

The pick: Ball State is coming off a 100-69 victory over Howard. Note that the Leathernecks won't be intimidated here though, as they have already played another MAC team this year, falling 86-81 to Northern Illinois in a tight affair just last week. Expect a similar final combined score here as well once it's all said and done. Grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Western Illinois.

The set-up: SMU is 4-0 after narrowly getting by Evansville last time out. UNLV is 2-4 after falling to Texas State in its last game. The Mustangs had to hold on for dear life vs. the Purple Aces, prevailing 59-57, but I think they'll have their hands full here today from this hungry UNLV side. Tyson Jolly leads SMU with 18.3 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, but note that the Mustangs commit 15 turnovers a night. 

The pick: Amauri Hardy led the Rebels with 18 points in a losing cause last time out. These team's offensive and defensive numbers are pretty close, but I think UNLV comes in as the "hungrier" team here. SMU is also a terrible 1-5 ATS in its last six as a road favorite (and 0-3 ATS this season as a favorite overall), while UNLV is 4-1 ATS in its last five off an upset loss as a home favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play on the home side.

10* PLAY-BOOK on UNLV.

The set-up: LIU is 1-3 and it starts off the Western portion of its schedule with this game. SDSU is 4-0 and I think it gets caught sleeping on its opponent here. LIU posted its first win of the season on the road Monday , beating Delaware State 92-84. The Sharks had five players score in double digits in the win. I expect the team to carry that confidence and momentum over here. 

The pick: The Aztecs beat in-State rival San Diego most recently. NOte that only two players average in double-digit points for the Aztecs though. SDSU has a stout defense, but I think it'll be tested here by the Sharks' pace. No outright, but this spread is much too large considering the situation. Grab the points.

10* MAULING on Long Island.

The set-up: Central Michigan is 4-0, but it faces a stiff test here in this difficult road venue vs. a 1-3 Gophers team which is looking to get its four game home stand started off on the "right foot." Minnesota has faced tough power conference opponents, while the Chips' competition has been suspect. Note as well that despite the sub-par win/loss record, the Gophers already rank high in several team categories, including 37th in 3-pointers made.

The pick: As note above, two of CMU's victories have in fact come over non-Division 1 opposiion. This is also the Chips very first true road game of the year, with all four victories coming on their home floor. Minnesota has a 22-2 lifetime record vs. the MAC and I expect that number to go up by 1 after tonight. And in blowout fashion. The stage is set for a beatdown, so lay the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on Minnesota. 

The set-up: Princeton is 0-3 and Indiana is 0-4. I think the hungry underdog keeps this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Tigers were 16-12 last year and they return four of their five starters. Note that outside of a blowout loss to Duquesne, Princeton has been solid overall this year and competitive in all of its losses. 

The pick: Indiana's four wins have come over Western Illinois, Portland State, North Alabama, and Troy. Clearly not murderers row. Last year Indiana was only 19-16 and now it faces its stiffest test so far. Note that the Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last ten when playing with five or six days rest, while the Hoosiers are only 1-3 ATS in their last four after two straight covers as a double digit favorite. I'm grabbing the points on the desperate Tigers.

10* DESTRUCTION on Princeton.

The set-up: Fairfield is 1-3, but I think it'll sneak in under the radar this evening and post a solid cover. Note that while the Stags have the sub-par record, they've been competitive in every game, as their first two losses were by four points (vs. Bucknell) and two (UMass), then after beating Holy Cross, they fell to Loyola in OT 84-75. Note that Fairfield has veteran experience as well, as its top three scorers are all upperclassmen.

The pick: The Terps have won all three of their opening games by an average of 24 points. Mark Turgeon has a group of players which look poised for a deep run. Anthony Cowan Jr. leads the nightly charge and four others average more than 10 PPG. I never said it would be a cake walk, I simply feel this spread is much too high. Note as well that Fairfield is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contestw, while Maryland is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after three straight SU home victories. I think the home side takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Fairfield.

The set-up: UTSA comes in under the radar and desperate for a spark after starting 0-4. The Aggies are on the other end of the spectrum at 4-0. Clearly on paper this is a massive mismatch, but I think from a situational stand point this one sets up great for the hungry visiting side. 

The pick: And that's because UTSA has a monumental matchup with SEC heavyweight LSU up next! UTSA has an opportunity to comfortably sneak in through the back door here as I don't expect the home side to run up the score here as it gets caught looking ahead. Note as well that UTSA is 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing with seven days rest, while Utah State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 15.5 to 18 points range. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on UTSA.

The set-up: Virginia is 2-0 and it takes on Ivy League member Columbia today, which is 1-2 to start. The Lions failed to qualify for the Ivy League confernece tournament last year after finishing 10-18 overall. Columbia is led by dynamic guard Mike Smith, who is averaging 21.3 PPG. Overall the Lions have five players who average between 8 and 10 points. 

The pick: The Cavaliers lost many faces from last year's NCAA Tournament winning squad, but so far it's dominated early, beating Syracuse 48-34 and James Madison 65-34. Both games have fallen well below the posted number, but I think finally the Cavs put the foot on the gas on the offensive end here. Note that Columbia has seen the total go over in seven of its last eight after a home victory, while Virginia has seen the total sneak over in 13 of its last 21 after allowing 50 points or less in its previous contest. This number is a tad low, play the over.

10* SUPER-SHOCKER on the OVER Columbia/Virginia.

The set-up: Clearly on paper CS Northridge is over-matched here. But I think the 0-3 Matadors can comfortably sneak in through the back door here vs. the 3-0 Auburn Tigers. CSUN's defense has been terrible, but it's offense has been decent. Last time out it lost 94-82 to Pepperdine. Auburn is the 22nd ranked team in the country, but it's yet to face anyone from a major conference yet. 

The pick: Yes the Matadors have lost both road games this year, but note that they're 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 away from friendly confines. Auburn may be 3-0, but it had to hold on for dear life in its 70-69 win over South Alabama last time out. Note as well that CSUN is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a home loss by ten or more points, while Auburn is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. teams with losing records. I like the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on CS Northridge.

The set-up: LBSU comes in battle tested already. This is its third straight road game to open the year and fourth game in nine days. If this were the end of the season then I'd be worried about fatigue, but I believe at the start of the year all of this recent action can only help the 49ers' chemistry in this one vs. No. 18 Saint Mary's. LBSU was destroyed 86-58 at Stanford, but I think it'll play with a lot more confidence here. 

The pick: The Gaels beat Wisconsin to open the year, but then suffered a terrible loss to Winthrop with a buzzer-beater. I think the Gaels come in shell shocked from that loss and it's the foot in the door that the 49ers can use to keep this one competitive late. Note as well that the Gaels are a poor 1-6 ATS in their last seven at home and only 2-5 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss, while LBSU is 8-1 ATS in its last nine on the road. I'm grabbing the all these points.

10* SHOCKER BLOWOUT on LBSU. 

The set-up: Wyoming beat lowly Idaho State in its opener, before then falling 66-32 at South Carolina. CSU Fullerton comes in off back-to-back losses, to open the year, albeit over much stiffer competition in BYU and Stanford. Wyoming was just 8-24 last year and its line-up features seven sophomores and four freshman. Cal State won 16 games last year and it returns three starters from that squad. 

The pick: Cal State is 3-1 ATS in its last four after suffering back-to-back defeats of more than 15 points, while Wyoming is only 2-7 ATS in its last nine after a defeat of 30 or more points in its previous game. I think the Titans' depth and experience delivers them to their first victory of the season.

9* SUPER-SHOCKER on Cal State Fullerton.

The set-up: The Western Illinois Leathernecks are 0-2. This is the final game of their opening home-stand and I think they're going to lay everything on the line here to secure their first victory of the year vs. the Tennessee Martin Skyhawks, who come in off a 92-75 loss to East Tennessee State on Saturday. UT Martin has three double-digit scorers, led by Quinton Dove. 

The pick: But the Leathernecks also have plenty of talent, including Zion Young, who had 24 points in his team's heart-breaking 77-75 loss to Stetson. I think it's interesting to note as well the Western Illinois is the No. 1 free-throw shooting team in the nation at 93.3 percent thus far. I don't think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Western Illinois.

The set-up: LBSU almost upset UCLA in its opener and then it rolled to a double digit win over San Diego in its second game. Overall the 49ers have not given up more than 69 points this year and they've averaged 74 thus far. LBSU plays with revenge here as well after falling 93-86 in this game last season. 

The pick: Stanford's rosey 2-0 start has to be taken with a grain of salt as well, as its victories have come over Montanta and Cal State Fullerton. There's no doubt that the Cardinal are tough at home and I'm not suggesting at all that you should expect an outright upset. That said, note that LBSU is 8-0 ATS in its last eight on the road. The 49ers play with revenge and I expect this "under the radar" team to give Stanford everything it can handle. Grab the points.

9* COACH'S CORNER on LBSU.

The set-up: Troy is 0-1 and it's looking to take out its frustrations here in the second game of a short two-game home stand. The Trojans enter off a 76-75 loss to UAB, a game in which they trailed by 12 points late. KJ Simon set a new career-high, leading all scorers with 21 points on 9-12 shooting. 

The pick: The Chattanooga Mocs are 1-1, losing 79-68 at EKU, before then holding on for a 59-57 win over Tennessee State at home in their second. Transfer Matt Ryan led the way scoring 11 points on 4-14 shooting. Troy is the deeper and more experienced team and I think it lays everything on the line here to secure the victory in front of what should be a record-setting crowd to watch. Additionally note that the Mocs are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight after scoring 60 points or less in their previous contest, while the Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last five off a cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, I'm on the home side in this one.

10* DESTRUCTION on Troy.

The set-up: After winning the opener of this tournament, Hawaii was upset at home last night 81-75 by South Dakota. Pacific lost to South Dakota in its opening game of this tournament by a score of 72-62, but it then bounced back in fine fashion with a 76-54 win over FAMU. These teams haven't met since 2013, but I think they're very evenly matched after what I've seen in the early going. 

The pick: Additionally note that Pacific is 17-10 ATS in its last 27 vs. teams with winning records, while Hawaii is only 5-12 ATS in its last 17 non-conference contests. In a game which I see being decided by whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Pacific.

The set-up: Both teams are 1-0 to open the new season. James Madison has plenty of experience and its offense was the main story line after crushing the Charlotte 49ers in its opener. Virginia looked sharp in its opening night road win in Syracuse, holding the Orange to just 34 points. The Dukes looked decent defensively vs. Charlotte, but I think they'll have their hands full with the defending champs on their own floor. 

The pick: Virginia CAN NOT be too happy with its win over Syracuse, as it shot only 40 percent from the floor, went a poor 4 of 25 from range, while also committing 15 turnovers. The Cavs are going to be looking to get their offense untracked here and with the home side opening things up, I look for this total to fly "over" sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER James Madison/Virgina.

The set-up: Cal Irvine won its first game on the road, but I think it'll have its hands full vs. Pepperdine, which lost by 16 in its opener to Cal. Irvine barely held on for a 76-73 win over San Diego. 

The pick: The Waves were only down two at half to the Golden Bears, but they weren't able to hold it together in the second half. The Waves finished 16-18 last year, so they'll be desperate for a victory here as they try to get the 2019/20 campaign out to a better start. Note though that the Waves were 9-5 at home last year and they've covered in 13 of their last 19 in friendly confines. I'm banking on the hungry Waves getting back on track here.

10* BLOWOUT on Pepperdine.

The set-up: I think the Rams can keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Colorado State beat Denver 74-63 in its opener, while Duke got off to a win and cover over Kansas at Madison Square Garden in its opener. Colorado State is an experienced team though and I think it'll be that collective experience which helps it keep this one competitive. Note that the Rams have four returning starters from last years team and each scored in double figures in the opening win. 

The pick: Will the same intensity be there for the Blue Devils as what they put forth in the win over the Jayhawks? Doubtful in my opinion. Note as well that Duke is in fact just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, while Colorado State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with a winning home record. Duke shot just 35.9 percent from the floor in the win over Kansas and I think this line-up of mainly freshman takes a small step back vs. this lowly non-conference opponent. Grab the points.

8* DESTRUCTION on Colorado State.

The set-up: Both teams are 1-0. UNC beat Notre Dame by 11 on Opening Night, managing to cover the spread by a single bucket. Cole Anthony had a massive game for the Tar Heels by dropping 34 points and grabbing 11 boards, but the Seahawks won't be going down without a fight today after they exploded in a 103-83 win over Johnson and Wales. Wilmington is an experienced team and I think that plays favorably for it here. 

The pick: Note as well that UNC is a sub-par 5-6 ATS in its last 11 off a home win vs. a conference rival, while Wilmington is 19-11 ATS in its last 30 as an underdog. Clearly I'm not calling for the outright, but I do absolutely believe the stage is set for a comfortable cover. Grab the points.

10* SUPER SHOCKER on NC Wilmington.

The set-up: Virginia is the defending national champion, so clearly Syracuse will be out to push the pace and get the Cavs "out of their comfort zone." The Orange actually enter the season "firing on all cylindres," winning two exhibition games and then going to Italy and winning all four games over there as well. This early chemistry in my opinion is going to help in pushing this total over the number. 

The pick: Virginia has new faces, with six players missing from last year's suffocating defensive squad. The Cavs got the job done last year by slowing things down, but I have a hard time seeing this group duplicating that feat this season. And especially on Opening night vs. this Orange side which is playing at an extremely high level before the season has even started. When you add it all up, this one has "over" written all over it.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Virginia/Syracuse. 

The set-up: UNC was upset by Auburn in the Sweet 16 last year. The Tar Heels lost their top five scorers, but they have a top 10 recruiting class, led by point guard Cole Anthony. Mike Brey has been the head coach in Notre Dame for 19 years, but the Irish won just 14 games last year, the lowest win total of his tenure. Last year the Irish took a 36-33 halftime lead against UNC and eventually lost 75-69. With five seniors returning, I expect Notre Dame to put up a similarily hard-fought effort here. 

The pick: The Tar Heels lost their top five scorers, but also four of their five starters from a year ago. UNC is still picked to finish second in the ACC, but I think chemistry is going to be an issue early. Look for the Irish to take this one down to the wire and grab up the generous amount of points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on Notre Dame.

The set-up: The Spartans were 32-7 last year and they're ranked No. 1 in the country. Clearly the Wildcats won't be lacking for motivation after finishing 30-7. Michigan State has plenty of talent, desping losing Kenny Goings, Nick Ward and Matt McQuaid.

The pick: Kentucky lost Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson and PJ Washington, but it picked several five-star recruits and it's expected to be even better this year. Note as well that MSU is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 as a neutral court favorite or pick, while Kentucky is 11-6 ATS in its last 17 neutral court contests. In a game which I envision coming down to whichever of these top teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

9* DESTRUCTION on Kentucky.

The set-up: These teams are playing at Madison Square Garden in New York City in this one. The last time these teams met was in the NCAA Tournament in 2018 and the Jayhawks won 85-81. Kansas though is on a mission here after failing to win the Big 12 for the first time since 2004, finishing with a 26-10 record last year. Kansas was hurt last season by the loss of Udoka Azubuike, who hurt his wrist early on and would have gone to the NBA, but he's back this season instead to work on his "stock" for the upcoming draft. 

The pick: The Blue Devils went 32-6 last year, but losing Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett isn't going to be the easiest transition in my opinion. Duke is loaded with talent (Tre Jones), but it also has to replace leadership type players like Cam Reddish (he had 13.5 PPG last year.) Additionally note that Duke is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games, while Kansas is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series. I think the talent and experience that the Jayhawks bring back turn out to be the difference maker on Opening night. 

10* PLAY-BOOK on Kansas.

The set-up: Two of the best defensive teams in the nation go head to head here and I think that points will not surprisingly be at a premium in this one. Texas Tech has advanced by beating UNT 72-57, and then by posting impressive defensive performances over Buffalo, Michigan and high-flying Gonzaga. The Red Raiders then capped off their journey with the 61-51 win over Michigan State in the Final Four. Virginia was knocked out of the first round last year, but this season it continues to ride it’s No. 1 ranked defense. Virginia has navigated some close calls as well to get here, including over Gardner-Webb, Oklahoma, Oregon, Purdue and the thriller over Auburn with no time left on the clock. 

The pick: Take it for what you all as well, but Texas Tech has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of ten neutral four games already this year and in four of its last five when playing with one or less days rest, while Virginia has seen the total go “under” in 11 of 17 after a non-conference game and in not surprisingly 11 of its last 17 vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest.

UVA/TTU UNDER

10* play

The set-up: This one has the feel of whichever of these defensive minded clubs has its hands on the ball last is going to win this game. In a contest which I do indeed see coming “down to the wire,” I’m going to recommend grabbing the points. The Red Raiders were knocked out of the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament game to WVU, but since then Texas Tech has been unstoppable and after beating No. 1 Gonzaga, I believe they carry that momentum over here. MSU survived Duke, but the Spartans experience their toughest matchup to date. Michigan State has struggled with offensive consistency this season, which doesn’t bode well facing the Red Raiders right now.

The pick: Clearly these teams are evenly matched. I’ll point out though that Texas Tech is already 3-1 ATS this year as a neutral court underdog or pick and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while MSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a neutral court favorite of three points or less or pick and only 1-3 ATS this season when playing with five or six days rest. Grab the points.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

10* play

The set-up: Two hungry teams collide in the Championship Game of the NIT. The Bison come in off an impressive 71-64 win over high-flying Wichita State, while The Longhorns smashed No. 1 seed TCU 58-44. These two schools got to this point behind some extremely aggressive defensive play and I don’t expect anything to change here. Note that Lipscomb held the Shockers to just 35 percent shooting, while Texas held TCU to only 28 percent from the floor. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Lipscomb has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of ten already this season after three or more SU wins, while Texas has seen the total dip “under” in 16 of 24 as a favorite this year. This number is high, play the “under.”

Texas/Lipscomb UNDER

10* play

The set-up: It’s the semi finals of the NIT and I’m expecting a war until the final horn. Texas advanced by beating South Dakota State, Xavier and Colorado, while TCU got the better of Houston State, Nebraska and Creighton. The Longhorns and Horned Frogs are of course very familiar with each other. Note that TCU won both meetings in Big 12 action this year. Both games were low-scoring battles, with TCU winning the first meeting 65-61, followed by a 69-56 score in the second. Everything points to another low-scoring affair here in my opinion. Texas comes in off a stellar defensive performance over Colorado, winning 68-55 and holding the Buffs to just 32.7 percent shooting. TCU crushed Creighton 71-58, holding it to 39.2 percent from the floor. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas has seen the total go “under” the number in three of four neutral court games it’s played in already this year, while TCU has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 12 following a home victory. This number is high, play the “under.”

Texas/TCU UNDER

10* play

The set-up: With a chance to erase a shaky start to the 2019 NCAA Tournament with a big win, I look for Duke to finally put it all together and ride its super stars to a solid victory over MSU in Elite Eight. Neither team has an advantage at coach obviously (and no need to talk about their past or any of their records, even the most casual CBB fan is fully aware of Mike Krzyzewksi and Tom Izzo’s accomplishments). It’s been a couple of “close calls” for the Blue Devils, but the combination of RJ Barrett, Tre Jones and Zion Williamson combined for 63 points in their last win and I think they’ll prove a matchup problem for the Spartans. Slowing down LSU is one thing, but I think MSU is going to have a much more difficult time from this highly motivated Duke side that’s now playing with a chip on its shoulder. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but MSU is just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 as an underdog, while Duke is 3-1 ATS this season after falling to cover the spread in two or more straight games. For all the reasons listed above, play on Duke.

9* play

The set-up: Clearly with a spread like this, the oddsmakers are expecting a very tight game. And while I don’t think the outright win is out of the question, in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points. The Tigers are on a roll right now and the momentum they’ve created is very real. And at this time of year in sports, “momentum” can ver a very real and even tangible factor. After winning the SEC tournament, the Tigers have won four straight, most recently destroying Kansas 89-75, before then dismantling the No. 1 seed Tar Heels. Kentucky was rolling along until a tougher than expected 62-58 win over No. 3 Houston (note that that Wildcats had 14 turnovers, which were offset by a 36-23 rebounding discrepancy.) 

The pick: Auburn suffered a blow with the injury to Okeke, but Auburn still possesses the talent to hang around late. I’m expecting a war until the end. Grab the points.

Auburn Tigers

10* play

The set-up: It’s a contrast of styles. They do say that “defense” wins championships, but for the most part that pertains to the gridiron. Texas Tech though has looked brilliant on both ends of the court and I believe they’re going to give the No. 1 seed everything it can handle tonight. Texas Tech destroyed Michigan 63-44 in the Sweet 16, while Gonzaga easily handled FSU 72-58. In the win over the Wolverines the Red Raiders show 43.6 percent from the floor while holding Michigan to just 32.7 percent shooting. The Bulldogs shot 40.3 percent in their win over the Seminoles, while holding FSU to 37.2 percent. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas Tech is a perfect 5-0 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest, while Gonzaga is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. good defensive tams which allow 64 points or less per contest. I think defense wins the day in this one. That said, grab the points.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

10* play

Selection: The set-up: Auburn comes in “under the radar” in my opinion, beating Mexico State in the first round, followed by an 89-75 destruction of Kansas in the second round. UNC enters off a win over Iona and a big 81-59 victory over Washington on Sunday. Auburn won the SEC tournament and they come into this one having won nine straight. Overall the Tigers average 79.8 PPG, while allowing 68.5. The Tar Heels have won ten of 11 and average 86 points, while conceding 72.5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a neutral court underdog or pick, while UNC is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine post-season tournament games. I think Auburn’s depth and momentum keeps it in this game late. Grab the points.

Auburn Tigers

9* play

The set-up: While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, I’m going to recommend what I feel to be a healthy amount of points in the end. MSU has cruised to this point with relatively simple wins over Bradley and Minnesota, while LSU struggled to get by Yale and Maryland. Overall the Tigers average 80.9 PPG, while allowing 72.9. The Spartans average only 75.8 PPG, while conceding just a 37.7 percent field goal shooting percentage. 

The pick: The Tigers have weathered the storm and won’t be going down without a fight. While MSU sports the clearly superior defense, LSU’s offense will push the Big Ten favorite to the brink in my opinion. Take it for what you will as well, but LSU is already 8-2 ATS in its last ten after a win by six points or less, while MSU is 0-3 ATS this season when playing with five or six days rest. Grab the points.

LSU

9* play

The set-up: Both teams easily destroyed their first two opponents. I expect a battle until the end between these evenly matched teams. I also believe that this number is much too low. The Red Raiders most recently destroyed Buffalo 78-58, as all five starters scored in double digits. Overall the Red Raiders average 73.2 PPG, while allowing only 59.2. Michigan though is back in the Sweet 16 for a third straight season. The Wolverines average 78.2 PPG, while allowing only 58.2.

The pick: Two of the best defensive teams in the nation, but note that the Red Raiders have seen the total go “over” in six of their last eight following a a SU win, while the Wolverines have seen the total go “over” five of their last seven after holding their previous opponent to 60 points or less. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

Michigan/Texas Tech Over

9* play

The set-up: Both teams easily destroyed their first two opponents. I expect a battle until the end between these evenly matched teams. I also believe that this number is much too low. The Red Raiders most recently destroyed Buffalo 78-58, as all five starters scored in double digits. Overall the Red Raiders average 73.2 PPG, while allowing only 59.2. Michigan though is back in the Sweet 16 for a third straight season. The Wolverines average 78.2 PPG, while allowing only 58.2.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but TT is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after holding its previous opponent to under 60 points, while Michigan is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after holding its previous opponent to under 60 points. I’m expecting an all out war and in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these two very evenly matched sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

 6* play

The set-up: Purdue advanced with an 87-61 win over Villanova on Saturday, while Tennessee advanced with an 83-77 OT victory over Iowa. The last time these teams played together was in 2017 at the Battle 4 Atlantis and the Vols posted the 78-75 OT win. Purdue puts up an average of 76.1 PPG, while allowing 66.1. The Vols are averaging 81.7 PPG, while allowing only 68.9. 

The pick: Purdue though is still just 4-6 ATS in its last ten as an underdog, while Tennessee is 10-5 ATS this year after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games. I think the Vols depth and pace proves to the be the difference. Play on Tennessee.

9* play

The set-up: Outright victory? VERY possible in my opinion! The Bulldogs and Seminoles are evenly matched. Gonzaga beat Fairleigh Dickinson and Baylor to advance, while FSU beat Vermont and Murray State. Last year the Seminoles destroyed the Bulldogs 75-60 in the Sweet 16 and I think a similar upset is possible here as well. FSU comes in on top form having won eight of their last nine and it is 16-2 since January. The Noles allow 67 PPG, while the Zags allow 64.8. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Gonzaga is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 NCAA games and interestingly only 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight vs. the ACC, while FSU is 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 neutral-site games. While the outright win isn’t out of the question, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points. 

10* play

Selection: The set-up: NC State hosts Lipscomb in the NIT quarterfinals. The Wolfpack got back Harvard to advance, led by CJ Bryce with 16 points and seven boards. The Bison advanced with an 86-69 rout of North Carolina-Greensboro Spartans, led by 24 points from Rob Marberry. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Lipscomb is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a SU win, while the NC State Wolfpack are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a SU win and 7-3 ATS in their last ten at home. I’m banking on NC State’s defense and the home town crowd to prove to be too much for the Bison tonight.

NC State Wolfpack

10* play

The set-up: Two teams with the best names of all time clash in the CIT quarterfinals tonight. The Presbyterian Blue Hose advanced by defeating Robert Morris 77-70. Overall the Blue Hose average 78.6 PPG. The Herd punched their ticket to the quarterfinals are a 78-73 win over IUPUI. Marshall so far has averaged 80.1 PPG. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Blue Hose are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven as a road underdog of six points or less or pick, while the Thundering Herd are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 tournament games. Marshall also has a huge advantage here by earning the second round bye, as clearly its much more rested. Lay the points.

Marshall Thundering Herd 10* play

The set-up: UC Irvine clearly can’t be taken lightly after knocking off K-State in the opening round 70-64. The Anteaters have averaged 107.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 97.4 points per 100 possessions. Note that UC Irvine has held its opposition to just 40.7 percent shooting from inside the arc, which ranks first in the country. The Ducks smashed Wisconsin 72-54, but I think they’ll have their hands full today with this aggressive Anteaters defense. Overall the Ducks average 108.9 points per 100 possessions, while allowing only 92.2. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UC Irvine is 4-1 ATS this year as an underdog, while Oregon is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a neutral court favorite in the 3.5 to six points range. Bank on the Anteaters going down with a fight, but don’t be shocked by the outright either. Either way though, grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: It’s the No. 12 seed Liberty Flames vs. the No. 4 seed VT Hokies in the second round. Suffice it to say, I expect the Flames to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Liberty went 14-2 in league play and won the A-Sun regular season and conference tournament. The Flames stunned Mississippi State in the first round. Liberty averages 111.5 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 99.9 points per 100 possessions. VT beat St. Louis 66-52 for its first NCAA Tournament win since 2007. The Hokies average 118.0 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 109.5 points per 100 possessions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but VT is just 2-3 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while Liberty is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after playing a game as an underdog. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

6* play

The set-up: Buffalo beat Arizona State 91-74, while Texas Tech demolished UNT 72-57 in the opening round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament. The Bulls are rolling, having won 13 straight, including the MAC Title game, but I think their high-powered offense (averages 85.1 PPG, while conceding 70.6) finally has a letdown here vs. this step up in competition, especially vs. the Red Raiders suffocating defense which allows just 59.2 PPG (averages 73.1). 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Buffalo is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral court games after scoring 90 or more point in its previous game, while Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Lay the points, expect a blowout.

9* play

The set-up: Washington advanced with a convincing 78-61 win over Utah State in the first round. The Huskies average only 70.1 PPG this year, while UNC averages 86.1. However, the Tar Heels have looked sloppy of late and they actually trailed Iona at the half on Friday. Washington’s defense looked impressive in the first round and I think we’ll see a repeat performance here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 3-1 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while UNC is just 13-14 ATS in their last 27 when playing on a neutral court. Grab the points, expect a tight battle.

9* play

The set-up: The Tigers have won nine straight after holding on for a 78-77 win over New Mexico State on Thursday. Kansas has won four of its last five after destroying Northeastern 87-53 in Round 1. Auburn averages 78.9 PPG and it concedes 68.8. Kansas averages 75.7 PPG, while allowing 69.6.

The pick: Not only does Auburn have the advantage on paper, but note that it’s also 5-1 ATS in its last six after a SU win, while Kansas is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 in the same position. I think this is a matchup which favors the SEC. Lay the short points.

9* play

The set-up: The Terps advanced by the skin of their teeth in a 79-77 win over Belmont on Thursday, while LSU held on for 79-75 victory over LSU in its Round 1 matchup. Neither team looked great, but they did enough to advance. However LSU looked a lot better overall in my opinion. The Terps had to play “catch up” as well all game on Thursday, falling behind by 12 points early (the Bruins missed a long 3 at the buzzer, which would have been the outright upset.) Overall Maryland shot just 43.5 percent from the floor in that one, including only 27.3 percent from range. LSU won the SEC regular season title, but was upset by Florida in the League Tournament. The Tigers shot 45.9 percent from the floor in their win over Yale, while holding it to just 21.6 percent (8 for 37) from range. 

The pick: Throw the trends out the window at this point. LSU has the big advantage on the offensive end and its improved defensive play of late makes it the correct call in this particular matchup. Lay it.

10* play

The set-up: Both teams “survived” their opening rounds and neither can be ver happy with they it performed. Neither covered the spread. The Terrapins advanced with a 79-77 win over Belmont, having to play “catch up” the entire game after falling behind by 13 early, while LSU held on for a 79-75 victory over Yale. Maryland averages 71.6 PPG and it allows 65.4, while LSU averages 81.3 PPG, while allowing 73.1. However, after both teams’ lacklustre efforts in the first rounds, I’m expecting each to push the pace from start to finish in Round 2.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Maryland has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten when playing with one or less days rest, while LSU has seen the total fly “over” in 15 of its last 20 as a neutral four favorite of six points or less or pick. This number is low, play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: The UCF Knights look to make the most of this opportunity with their first visit to the NCAA Tournament since 2005. UCF averages 72.1 PPG, while allowing just 64.3. Keep your eyes on BJ Taylor, who had 16 points and 3.3 assists per game this season. The Rams have plenty of veteran experience and they’ve advanced to at least the second round in six of their last seven NCAA Tournament appearances, but I think this is a bad matchup for them. VCU averages only 71.4 PPG, while allowing 61.6. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral four games and 4-1 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while VCU is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 neutral court games. Grab the points.

9* play

The set-up: Mississippi State earned an auto bid despite getting ousted in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. Liberty was 14-2 in A-Sun Conference play and also earned an auto bid after winning the conference tournament. Mississippi State averages 117.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 96.7 points per 100 possessions. The Liberty Flames average 110.6 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 99.7 points per 100 possessions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Liberty is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest, while Mississippi State is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games. Grab the points and expect a competitive battle.

9* play

The set-up: Washington went 15-3 in the Pac-12, but it was upset by Oregon in the Conference tournament title game. Utah State is 17-1 in its last 18 and it won the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Huskies though won the Pac 12 regular season title. I think the Washington player Jaylen Nowell, who earned Pac 12 Player of the Year honors will prove to be a difficult matchup for the Aggies today (note that Washington also has Pac 12 Defensive Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle as well.) Utah State beat SDSU 64-57 in the title game, but I have a hard time seeing the Aggies’ offense keeping pace today. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog, while Utah State is just 7-8 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records. I think the Huskies depth on both end of the floor proves to be too much for the Aggies in this one.

10* play

The set-up: Iowa lost to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals, while Cincinnati just won the AAC Tournament. Overall the Hawkeyes average 78.3 PPG, but they stumbled down the stretch, losing five of their last six, including the listless 74-53 setback at Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. The Bearcats destroyed Houston 69-57 in the Tournament title game. Ultimately I think that Cincinnati’s suffocating defense will prove to be the difference. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games and 7-3 ATS in their last ten non-conference games, while Iowa is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records. I’m laying the points and expecting a beatdown.

9* play

The set-up: ODU earned its spot in The Big Dance by defeating WKU 62-56 in the Conference USA Tournament title game on Saturday. The Monarchs won’t be going down without a fight today as they look to take advantage of a Boilermakers team still reeling from a 75-73 Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals loss to Minnesota. ODU won both the regular season title and the Conference tournament title. The Monarchs average 66.2 PPG and they allow only 60.9. Purdue averages 76.2 PPG and it allows 66.8. 

The pick: The Monarchs are going to run this shot clock down and make the Boilermakers work their asses off for every point. Take it for what you will as well, but ODU is 9-4 ATS in non-conference games this season, while Purdue is just 1-3 ATS this season when playing with five or six days rest. Grab the points.

9* play

The set-up: These teams are similar in that they both employ a 2-3 matchup zone defense. Baylor finished 19-13 and is back dancing after a one-year absence. Only two Baylor players have NCAA Tournament experience. Syracuse finished 20-13 and this will be coach Jim Boeheim’s 34th NCAA Tournament appearance. Syracuse sat out starting guard Tyus Battle in both ACC Tournament games as a precautionary measure because of a sore back, but he’s been returned to go at 100% health in this one. 

The pick: The Orange have held opponents to 40 percent shooting for the season and 32.3 percent from range. The Orange are also 4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as a favorite in the -1 to -7 range, while Baylor is just 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA tournament contests. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: The St. Francis Terriers had a 17-15 record overall, but they’d go 9-7 in league play and a share of the Northeast Championship (they average 71 points, led by 15.1 per game from Jalen Jordan.) Hampton was 9-7 in the Big South, but just 15-16 overall. Hampton is 10-3 at home this year and it averages 81.7 PPG.

The pick: The Pirates though aren’t nearly as good on the defensive side of things and I believe that leaves the door wide open for this under rated Terriers team. Take it for what you will as well, but St. Francis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after playing a game as road dog, while Hampton is only 3-9 ATS in its last 12 tournament games. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: I’m expecting a defensive battle here. Northeastern won’t be going down without a fight today after finishing 23-10 this season. The Huskies have a starting five of upperclassmen, led by Vas Pusica and Jordan Roland. The Jayhawks have a lot to prove as well after their string of regular season conference champion finished this year after 15 seasons. Kansas had to deal with significant injuries (center Udoka Azubuike lost mid-season), but it still finished 25-9. The Jayhawks are stingy defensively and I think they’ll be able to make the adjustments to counter the Huskies three-point oriented offensive attack. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Northeastern has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 12 neutral court games, while Kansas has seen the total dip “under” in six of its last nine neutral site games. I’m expecting a slower-paced defensive battle. Play the “under.”

9* play

The set-up: Outright victory? Almost assuredly not. I’m not calling for one at all anyways. But I do believe the Bradley Braves come in under the radar here and I believe they can keep this one competitive late. MSU came from behind to knock off Michigan in the Big Ten title game and could easily be still caught up on that big come from behind victory. The Braves won’b be going down without a fight, as they return to The Big Dance for the first time since 2006. Bradley limits its opposition to 41.1 percent shooting and 32.8 percent from range. The Braves had a signature win over Penn State, 59-56 in the Cancun Challenge. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Bradley is 11-6 ATS as an underdog this season and 5-0 ATS in all neutral court games, while MSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the final horn.

10* play

The set-up: Auburn will be wary to avoid the 5-12 “matchup curse” here vs. a dangerous New Mexico State team. The Aggies finished 30-4 and they’re in the NCAA Tournament for a third straight year. New Mexico State has 11 upperclassmen who all see substantial playing time. Auburn is out to prove that it’s SEC Championship victory was no fluke (84-64 destruction of Tennessee). It’ll be out to push the pace in the first half, and that’s exactly what I’m getting down on this “first half” selection. 

The pick: Despite all of their success this year, I’ll point out that the Aggies have made 11 straight opening-round exits in the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers are in back-to-back NCAA Tournaments for the first time since 1999 and I believe they make the most of it. Get down early and play Auburn in the first half.

9* play

The set-up: Clearly the oddsmakers agree that this is going to be a tight battle. Despite backing its way down the stretch, ASU has now made back-to-back NCAA Tourney appearances for the first time since the early 80’s. If recent history is any precedence, then the Sun Devils have to be loving their chances today as well as they’d meet the Red Storm in LA last year and beat them 82-70. This is St. John’s first winning season for Chris Mullin since he took over four years ago. St. John’s got out to a quick start in non-conference play and despite a shot in The Big Dance, the team has failed to live up to expectations as far as many are concerned. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. John’s is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 neutral sit games, while ASU is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five neutral site affairs. Lay the short points, play on Arizona State.

10* play

The set-up: Temple lost 80-74 in the quarterfinals of the ACC to Wichita State on Friday, while Belmont lost 77-65 to Murray State in the title game of the OVC Tournament back on March 9th. These teams have never played against each other. The Owls average 74.8 PPG and they allow 71.2. The Bruins average a whopping 87.4 PPG, while allowing just 73.9. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Belmont is 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning SU record, while the Owls are only 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games. I think Belmont’s high-octane offense turns out to be the difference in this one. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: The winner of this will move on to meet No. 1 Gonzaga. I’m expecting a defensive affair. Prairie Vie A&M comes in off a win over Texas Southern in the SWAC Tournament title game on Saturday, while Farleigh Dickinson won 85-76 over Saint Francis in the NEC Tournament title game. The Panthers average 75 PPG and they allow 72.5. The Knights average 75.4 PPG and they allow only 71.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Farleigh Dickinson has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last ten off a win vs. a conference rival, while Prairie View has seen the total go “under” in three of four this season after allowing 85 points or more. This number is high, play the “under.”

8* play

The set-up: Texas Arlington is off a 67-58 win over Georgia Southern, while Georgia State won 59-46 over Texas State to advance. The Panthers won both regular season meetings over the Mavericks. Each team comes in off a lower-scoring victory and I’m expecting a similar battle here as well. The Mavericks held the Eagles to just 36.7 percent shooting last tie out. UTA needed its defense to step up though, as the offense connected on just 39.7 percent of its chances in the victory. Overall UTA has averaged 69.4 PPG and allowed 69.7. Georgia State averages 77.2 PG and it allows 73.2. During league play though the Panthers have averaged 76.5 PPG and they allow 72.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UTA has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine after allowing 60 points or less in its previous game, while Georgia State has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 11 after allowing 48 points or less in its previous outing. This number is high, play the “under.”

10* play

The set-up: Auburn enters the SEC Tournament final on a seven-game win streak. Most recently the Tigers beat Florida 65-62 yesterday, going 13 of 28 from range. Note though that Tennessee plays with revenge here after it fell 84-80 at Auburn on March 9th in the regular season finale. The Vols come in off an impressive 82-78 win over favored Kentucky and I think they carry that momentum over here. And with a win today, the Vols will punch their ticket to a No. 1 seed in the upcoming Tournament. 

The pick: Auburn plays its fourth game in four days and I believe it comes out flat and tired here. Look for the up-tempo Vols to push the pace, to avenge the regular season finale loss, to earn the No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA tourney and to be crowned the SEC Tournament winner. Lay the points.

9* play

The set-up: This is the Conference USA Tournament Final from the Ford Center in Texas. ODU got past Louisiana Tech and UAB, while WKU got the better of UNT and Southern Miss. Both teams have plenty of momentum, but ODU is a difficult matchup for WKU, especially Players Of The Year in BJ Stith, who had ten points and ten boards in his teams 57-56 win over Louisiana Tech. 

The pick: These teams have played twice this year, and ODU is 2-0, winning by a combined seven points. However note that WKU is 3-7 ATS in its last ten when playing with double revenge vs. an opponent, while ODU is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back SU victories. Third time isn’t a charm for WKU. Play on Old Dominion.

9* play

The set-up: I’m expecting a battle until the bitter end the ACC Tournament Title game. Duke avenged a regular season loss to UNC with a thrilling 74-73 victory last night and I think it’s poised for a letdown here. The Seminoles on the other hand were clinical in their 69-59 dismantling of No. 1 seeded Virginia. Note that this is a revenue game as well for FSU, after Duke hit a 3-pointer at the Buzzer to win 80-78 on January 12th (Cam Reddish.) It’s a perfect set of situational factors working in favor of FSU today in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records, while Duke is just 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. schools with winning records. I think FSU’s length and depth once again gives its opponent everything it can handle tonight. Grab the points.

10* play on Florida State

The set-up: Wisconsin finished 22-9 and MSU was 25-6. Michigan State was never in any real danger in its 77-70 win over Ohio State yesterday, however it did not cover the 12.5 points spread. Wisconsin though comes in dog tired here after its 66-62 win over Nebraska on Friday. The Spartans handled the Badgers 67-59 on the road in mid February and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Overall Wisconsin is averaging 69.6 PPG, while allowing 61.2. MSU averages 79.6 PPG and it allows 66. 

The pick: This is a bad matchup for Happ and the Badgers. Take it for what you will as well, but Wisconsin is still just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 revenging a loss where the team score less than 60 points in, while MSU is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less. Lay the points.

9* play

The set-up: Florida upset LSU 76-73 last night to advance to the semi-final of the SEC. The Gators have now punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Fatigue becomes a factor for both teams at this point though and I believe this will effect the overall scoring pace this afternoon. The Gators are out to avenge a 76-62 loss at Auburn in the lone meeting between the schools this year. Auburn beat Missouri to advance, getting five 3-pointers from Bryce Brown. While Florida struggled from the perimeter defense in the first meeting, the Gators have come a long way since then. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Auburn has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last ten neutral site games and in seven of its last ten when playing the role of favorite, while Florida has seen the total go “under” in six of its last seven neutral site games. I’m expecting a war and for this one to fall “under” once it’s all said and done.

9* play

The set-up: It’s going to be a war to the end in my opinion here between FSU and Virginia with a trip to the Conference Tourney Final on the line. Both teams earned double-byes and each won their opener. Both teams have won 13 of their last 14. Virginia has the better defense, but FSU has the better offense. FSU plays with revenge here though after a 65-52 loss to Virginia on January 5th. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, while Virginia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five a a neutral court favorite in the +8 to +10 range. Grab the points.

10* play