Lamar/Mississippi State

Two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum end their respective non-conference parts of their schedules here.

Mississippi State is 5-1 and Lamar is 1-6. 

I think the Bulldogs come in complacent and leave the back door open in the second half. They're off an emotional 82-71 OT win over Richmond last time out, and I think they're over-priced here.

The Cardinals are coming off a loss to Texas Tech. They've taken their lumps, but they have talent and experience and while the outright win is out of the question, the stage is definitely set here for a much tighter battle than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Grab all those points! 8* PLAY on Lamar. 

Boston U/George Washington.

The 5-3 Boston Terriers are going to have their hands full with the 2-6 George Washington Colonials in my opinion.

Boston is off a tight 61-60 win over Merrimack. Overall the Terriers average 69.9 PPG, while allowing 63.6.

The Colonials are out to rebound off a 72-54 loss to a tough Missouri State team. George Washington averages 63.3 PPG, while allowing 71.4. 

Clearly, if just looking at each side's offensive and defensive numbers, the visitors would seem to be the correct call.

But that's not the case. Strength of schedule has to be taken into account here. 

I like the Colonials to defend home court and find a way to deliver in this one. 8* MID MAJOR MONEY TIME on George Washington.

Montana/Oregon

Montana is pretty good, but I expect Oregon to lay the hammer down from start to finish tonight.

The Grizzlies are 4-2, most recently scoring a 74-62 win over Southern Miss on Friday. Lonnell Martin Jr. had 20 points in the victory. 

Oregon is 3-3 after back-to-back losses. Most recently the Ducks got smashed 78-49 by HOuston. Eric Williams Jr. had 13 points in the losing cause.

Here's the perfect opponent to get back on track against. Montana excels on the defensive end, conceding just 60.3 PPG. Oregon isn't far behind allowing 66.5. 

The Ducks have routinely been one of the best defensive teams in the nation, but there's still lots of time to make adjustments.

Both teams also sport similar offensive numbers. 

Montana's early schedule has to be called into question here. Also note that the Grizzlies are a terrible 1-5 against the spread in their last six on the road.

When Montana faced Mississippi State this year, it conceded 86 points.

I'm laying the points here and expecting a blowout. Oregon 8* PLAYBOOK. 

UTA/USU

UTA has lost all four games it's played this year against Division 1 opponents and its path doesn't get any easier this evening at Utah State. All that said though, I like the Mavericks to keep this one much closer than what this spread is suggesting.

UTA is already quietly turning the corner with its performance, losing to SDSU by six points in its last outing (as a 19-point underdog.)

Utah State enters complacent here after four straight wins. The Aggies won the Myrtle Beach championship with a 73-70 win over the Sooners last Sunday, so this sets up as a classic "trap" for the home side in my opinion.

Utah State may have been undervalued in the betting market up to this point, but now it's the Mavericks who are in that role.

UTA is playing much better now than its earlier struggles and numbers are still pointing to, so expect that progression to continue here.

Grab the points. Texas Arlington 10* GAME OF MONTH. 

Baylor/VCU

This is the semi's of the Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. I like VCU to carry over its momentum here after upsetting Syracuse 67-55 as a 5-point underdog. 

It's early, but the Rams average 54 PPG, while allowing 52. Levi Stockard III had 15 points in the victory over the Orange.

Baylor is a perfect 5-0. Its' averaging 85.8 points per game, while conceding 55.6. LJ Cryer had 15 points in the Bears 75-63 win over Arizona State last night.

Clearly VCU will be trying to double down on the defensive end tonight to try and grind out the upset. Expect this one to be much closer than what this line is suggesting. VCU 10* COACHES CORNER. 

Hampton/USF.

The Hampton Pirates are 2-3, and the USF Bulls are 2-2.

Hampton won its first two games, but has since lost three straight. It'll be motivated here and I like wagering on motivated teams. The Pirates most recently lost 86-66 to Georiga Southern, led by Russell Dean with 30 points and three assists.

USF is off a 58-52 loss to Auburn. Caleb Murphy was a bright spot in a losing cause with 19 points.

The Bulls though are a poor 1-9 ATS in their last ten following an ATS victory.

USF gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today as its hangover from the "near miss" vs. the Tigers carries over.

Grab the points. 8* Situational Slam Dunk. 

Evanvsille/Vermont.

Evansville is 2-4, while Vermont is 3-2.

The Aces lost 109-104 to Rice last time out. Hamar Givance leads the way with 13 points and four assists per game.

So far the Purple Aces have allowed 71.3 PPG, while averaging 63.

The Catamounts are off a 63-61 loss to Oakland. They average 66.2 PPG, while allowing 57.6 (Ryan Davis leads the Catamounts in scoring with 18 PPG.)

The early numbers on paper favor Vermont, but the competition of each side has to be taken into account to this point.

These teams are more evenly matched than what this spread is trying to suggest. Grab the points. 10* GAME OF WEEK Evansville. 

Cal Poly Slo/Nicholls State

This is the Cal Poly Slo men's basketball program's lengthiest road trip in 51 years as the SoCal challenge continues. 

Cal Poly looks to snap a three-game slide, and that's noteworthy, as the Mustangs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a three games or longer losing streak. 

Nicholls State (3-2), had a three-game, season-opening win streak stopped with B2B road defeats at defending national champion Baylor (89-60) on Nov. 15th and TCU (63-50) on Nov. 1st.

One player to keep your eyes on today is Alimamy Koroma, who is averaging 13.5 PPG this year. 

Note as well that Nicholls State is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the -5 to -7.5 points range vs. non-conference opponents.

Grab the points. 8* Cal Poly Slo. 

Southern/Nebraska

Southern lost its second straight game in a heart-breaking 71-68 loss to South Dakota State this past Friday. While it won the turnover battle 17-13, it lost the rebound battle by a 37-27 margin. Jayden Saddler had 19 points in a losing cause for the Jaguars.

Southern averages 66 PPG, while allowing 73.5. Nebraska averages 73.8 PPG, while allowing 69.2. 

The Cornhuskers enter off a 78-60 win over Idaho State. Keep your eyes on Bryce McGowens today, as he is averaging 16.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1 assist per game in the early going.

The Huskers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five though vs. teams with losing records and 4-0 ATS in their last four against teams with losing road records.

Southern has played decently, but I say this step up in competition will be too much for it to handle.

Lay the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Nebraska. 

Western Illinois/DePaul.

A couple of 3-0 teams collide in this one and I expect it to be a real "nail biter." Western Illinois beat Iowa Wesleyan in its last outing, while DePaul held on for a three-point win over Rutgers in its last outing.

Western Illinois does also have a nice quality win over Nebraska already as well. Will Caries led the team with 16 points, two assists and two steals in their most recent win.

David Jones had 22 points and five boards for DePaul in its last outing against Rutgers.

The Lumberjacks are 8-2 ATS in their last ten as a road favorite though. DePaul managed a win last time out despite getting out-played in several key categories.

No outright, but closer than expected for sure. 8* MAULING on Western Illinois. 

Charlotte/App State 

Charlotte is 2-0 and I think it'll take 2-1 App State down to the wire (at the very least!)

Most recently the 49ers beat SC Upstate 76-64, while the Mountaineers hammered William Peace by a score of 98-49 in their last matchup.

The 49ers are led by Jahmir Young, who averages 19.5 PPG, while the Mountaineers are led by James Lewis Jr., who scored 15 points in his team's latest blowout.

App State though is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 90 or more points in its previous game.

As for Charlotte, it's 7-2 ATS in its last nine after two or more straight ATS losses in a row.

Grab the points.

Charlotte. 8* SPECIAL. 

Northwestern State/SMU

Northwestern State is 1-2 SU, but 3-0 ATS. SMU is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. 

The Demons beat lowly Champion Christian last time out by a score of 91-62. Kendal Coleman had 19 points and 11 boards.

SMU enters off an 86-63 loss to a good Oregon team. Emmanual Bandoumel was good in a losing cause with 14 points, five boards and one assist. 

The Mustangs are the bigger and more athletic team. The Demons haven't faced any tough teams yet.

This is a David vs. Goliath matchup, but in this version, Goliath stomps the underdog through the hardwood. 8* MID-MAJOR MAULING on SMU.

WKU/South Carolina

Both teams are 1-1, but I like WKU to come out on top here. The Hilltoppers beat Alabama State, then it came up short against Minnesota. 

The Gamecocks enter off a tight loss to Princeton and I believe they'll struggle again here.

After only scoring 23 points in the first half against the Golden Gophers, WKU made a game of it last time out, eventually falling 73-69. I think Davyion McKnight, who had 34 points, nine boards and four assists, and company will keep the momentum rolling here. 

South Carolina beat USC Upstate, but then lost 66-62 to Princeton. 

Off that 46 point second half, look for the Hilltoppers to keep that good times rolling.

8* MAULING on WKU. 

Davidson/San Fran.

Davidson destroyed Delaware 93-71 at home on Tuesday, but I think it'll struggle to duplicate that success in this difficult road venue.

The Dons smashed Prairie View A&M 92-76 on Thursday and they're now 2-0 SU. Davidson was 13-9 last year, but it lost its offensive heart in Kellan Grady to Kentucky.

San Fran won't win the the conference, as it's in the same one as Gonzaga, but this is the best Dons team on the floor in years. They return four starters from last year and are led by Jamaree Bouyea, who had 24 points last time out.

Look for the Wildcats to struggle on the road against this vastly improed Dons team. 8* MAULING on San Francisco. 

VMI/Presbyterian

The Blue Hose are 0-1, while the Keydets are 1-0. I think VMI is the correct call here.

The Keydets smoked Carlow University in their opener, while Presbyterian fell to Clemson. 

The Keydets though are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, while teh Blue Hose are interesting 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Friday and just 1-5 ATS in their last six off an ATS victory.

Outright is possible, but I'm grabbing the points. 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on VMI.

Air Force/South Dakota.

The home side went 14-11 last year. The Falcons on the other hand won just five games last season, and they have almost an entirely new roster this year (AJ Walker is back, he averaged 15.3 points, 3.0 boards and 2.6 assists.) 

Overall the Falcons averaged only 58.7 PPG last year. 

South Dakota averaged 79 PPG, and this year it'll lean on A.J. Plitzuweit, who last year averaged 19.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game.

The Coyotes have four of their starters back this year. After going 0-4 in non-conference play last year, I think South Dakota comes in focussed here. Lay the points.

10* SPECIAL on South Dakota. 

FAU/New Mexico

FAU finished 13-10 last year and it's looking for its third straight winning season under coach Dusty May. New Mexico was terrible last season, finishing 6-16. The Owls went 7-5 in Conf. USA play. There are two double-digit scoring options on FAU. The Owls put up 78.1 PPG last year. 

The Lobos have plenty of issues coming into the season. Offense was the biggest issue, as New Mexico averaged only 65.3 PPG. 

The Lobos were terrible last year and it's going to take some time for Pitino to gets things turned around. I like the Owls to lay the hammer down here in what will be a hostile environment. 10* Coaches Corner on FAU.

Miami Ohio/Georgia Tech.

I like Georgia Tech to roll over its MAC opponent today. The Yellow Jackets finished 17-9 overall last year, including 11-6 in the ACC. GT returns five of its top seven scorers from last year. 

The Jackets warmed up for this game by hosting Morehouse in an exhibition contest on Oct. 31st, defeating the Maroon Tigers, 89-52.

The Redhawks finished 12-11 overall and 9-8 in conference play. Miami will be improved, with nine of its ten players returning, but I still don't think it'll be enough here.

Tech is too deep and I expect it to send an early statement on its own floor. Lay the points, the play is GT.

Siena/St. Bonaventure.

Sienna was 12-5 last year, taking the reg. season co-championship in the MAAC, while St. Bonaventure easily won the A-10 and went on to play in the NCAA Tournament.

Siena eventually lost 55-52 to Iona in the Conference Tournament semifinal. 

The Bonnies however also won the regular season title over VCU, and eventually fell 76-61 to LSU in the First Round.

The Saints are just 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road. The Bonnies are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 at home.

All five senior starters return for St. Bonaventure, so lay the points here!

10* Bonnies. 

The set-up: Both teams are fantastic. Baylor is great at shooting the three-ball, and Gonzaga is the best at shooting from two-point range. The Bulldogs allow just 89.1 points per 100 possessions on the season. The Bulldogs also have size at every position, which is a mismatch issue for Baylor, as it starts four players 6-foot-5 or shorter.

The pick: The Bears are also tough defensively, but not on the same level as the Zags, allowing 91.8 points per 100 possessions overall (and 97.9 points per 100 possessions vs. Big 12 opponents.) Baylor would have had difficulties with that red hot UCLA team too. Expect Gonzaga's size, experience and depth to prove to be the difference maker and lay the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Gonzaga.

The set-up: UCLA is great at shooting the three-ball, and it's been super efficient so far in its big Cindarella run. The Bruins had to play an extra game as well in the FIRST FOUR to even advance into the Big Dance. Gonzaga is on a mission to go undefeated, but after three straight covers to advance here, I'm expecting the Zags to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one.

The pick: Gonzaga is the highest scoring team in the nation, averaging 92.9 PPG. UCLA only averages 72.6. The Bruins are just happy to be here, while the Bulldogs are going to want to send a message at this point to its final opponent. On the National stage, look for Gonzaga to lay the hammer down from the opening tip, until the final horn.

This is a 10* FINAL FOUR GAME OF THE WEEK on Gonzaga.

The set-up: Both teams can score. Both teams can defend. Honestly, it wouldn't be difficult to write a convincing argument for this one to go "over" the number either. But in my opinion, this one does in fact set up great for a lower-scoring "under." It's interesting to note, that both teams have gone 3-0 ATS to open up the tournament. Each will be wary not to give the other an open look from the outside. USC averages 79.7 PPG, while allowing only 64.5, but note that it's conceded just 58.3 over its first three NCAA Tourney games.

The pick: Gonzaga's nation-leading offense (91.8 PPG) is going to have its hands full with this aggressive Trojans' defense. The Bulldogs are allowing just 68.6 PPG this year, and everything, in my opinion, points to this one being an extreme defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring "shootout." I expect a war until the final buzzer and for this total to fall "under" once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* ELITE 8 BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER USC/Gonzaga.

The set-up: Baylor will be wary to get into a "shootout" here with the dangerous Razorbacks. The Bears hammered Villanova into submission by a score of 62-51 last tome out and I expect their tough defensive play to carry over here. How much gas does Arkansas have left in the tank after fighting tooth and nail in its 72-70 win over Oral Roberts as an 11-point favorite last time out? Not much in my opinion.

The pick: Further note that Arkansas has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 neutal site games after allowing 70 or more points in its last outing, while Baylor has seen the total dip below in five of its last seven after holding its previous opponent to 55 points or less in a SU/ATS victory. I expect a war until the final buzzer and for this total to fall "under" once it does.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Arkansas/Baylor.

The set-up: Will Oregon State's Cindarella run come to an end here? Maybe not. But for this play, I'm not concentrating on which team will win and cover the entire game, I believe this one sets up well for Houston in the first half of this contest. Oregon State stymied Loyola Chicago last time out in the first half, but Houston is an entirely different animal, that plays an entirely difference pace and approach. 

The pick: This is a bad matchup for the Beavers, who have been on an amazing run up to this point. If this was a "normal" season, Oregon State wouldn't even be in the NCAA Tournament. "Timing" and chemistry is obviously a big and real thing in sports wagering. I think the general CBB betting public has fallen in love with the Beavers, but all signs point to the Cougars coming out firing right out of the gate here as they look to "flip the script" on Oregon State and put the pressure on the Beavers from the "get go." I'm laying the points in the first half.

This is an 8* FIRST HALF DESTRUCTION on Houston.

The set-up: The Ducks smashed Iowa 95-80 behind 23 points from Chris Duarte last time out and I like them to carry that momentum over here into another victry. USC advanced by beating Kansas 85-51. These teams met on February 22nd in LA, and the Trojans won 72-58, setting this up as a classic revenge spot as well for Oregon. 

The pick: The Mobely brothers are tough to stop, but the Ducks perimeter defense has vastly improved since the last time these teams played against each other. The Ducks won the Pac 12 Championship and they've won 11 of their last 12. With a chance to avenge the earlier loss, I look for the red hot Ducks to do just that (that said, grab as many points as you can!)

This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Oregon.

The set-up: UCLA has been hot. Previous to this point, the Bruins entered the Tournament on a four-game slide. UCLA averages 73.1 PPG, while allowing 67.9. Johnny Juzang and company have been playing well, but I think regression is finally in store here vs. this sizzling hot Alabama team. 

The pick: The Tide have won eight in a row, which includes the SEC Tournament Championship. Bama averages 79.7 PPG, while allowing 69.5. This is easily the toughest team that UCLA has faced so far in this tournament, but I can't see the Bruins slowing down this tremendous Tide offense, which excels in shooting from range (Alabama also has a huge rebounding advantage, by 14 per game.) I look for the Tide to pull away for a comfortable cover in the second half.

This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOOUT on Alabama.

The set-up: The Seminoles are a dangerous team that I think can win this one outright. FSU is off a dominating 71-53 win over Colorado in its last outing. Michigan advanced by beating LSU 86-78. 

The pick: Each team features depth and experience. FSU's Anthony Polite is going to be a matchup issue for Michigan, which continues to play without top player Livers. I believe FSU's strong defensive play continues here and while I do think the outright is possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on FSU.

The set-up: Oral Roberts has been fantastic, most recently advancing past Florida 81-78. The Golden Eagles have a dynamic offense which averages 82.0 PPG. The one weakness of Oral Roberts though is its defensive play, as it concedes 75.9 PPG. 

The pick: Arkansas held on for a tight 68-66 win over a dangerous Texas Tech side and I expect it to lay the hammer down here with the Elite Eight in sight. The Razorbacks already defeated Oral Roberts 87-76 in mid-December, but all signs point to an even bigger blowout here. This is simply a really bad matchup for Oral Roberts, as Arkansas has a couple players over 7 feet. Lay the points, expect a rout.

This is a 10* SWEET 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas.

The set-up: Villanova beat UNT 84-61 to advance in its most recent matchup, while Baylor advanced by beating Wisconsin 73-63. Both teams have looked good this year and honestly, it wouldn't be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either side to cover this contest. 

The pick: Villanova has two National Championships since 2016 though, while Baylor hasn't advanced past the first round since 2012. The Bears are the hungrier side here for sure. Baylor averages 83 PPG, while Villnova averages 75. Look for the Bears superior offense to pull away for the comfortable cover in the closing moments.

This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on Baylor.

The set-up: Both teams are coming off big upsets to advance to the round of 16. Loyola Chicago sports some of the best defensive metrics in the country and while it did take out No. 1 Illinois last time out, I think the Beavers are still be undervalued in this spot. Oregon State's numbers over the last month have been incredible and it has an opportunity here to once again shock the nation. 

The pick: Loyola Chicago's only weakness is its offense. The Beavers are going to try and push the pace and get the Ramblers out of their comfort zone. I don't expect this underdog Oregon State side to go down quietly. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a war until the final buzzer blares.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Oregon State.

The set-up: The 14-10 NCState Wolfpack average 73.5 PPG, while allowing 69.4. They're coming off a win over Davidson to advance. CSU beat Buffalo in the first round. Colorado State averages 75.9 PPG, while allowing just 65.8. 

The pick: The Wolfpack are only 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight following an ATS victory, while the Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine neutral site games following an ATS win. These teams are evenly matched, but CSU's superior defensive numbers will see it through to the semifinals.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Colorado State.

The set-up: Maryland was in complete command in its 63-54 win over UConn as a 3.5-point underdog. Alabama won handily over Iona 68-55, but it was unable to cover the large 17-point spread. Maryland isn't explosive offensively (68.6), but it's efficent, as it hit 51.2 percent from the floor in its last outing. The Terps though are fantastic on the defensive end, conceding just 64.6 PPG. 

The pick: The Tide are on a seven-game win streak after winning the Conference Tournament and first round. Overall Alabama averages 79.2 PPG, while allowing 69.3. The Tide only managed 68 points in their last game, making just 47.2 percent from the floor. Regression is appearing for Alabama right before our eyes. Maryland's defense is underrated and I like it to once again keep the Terps competitive late. Grab the points.

This is an 8* BLOOD-BATH on Maryland.

The set-up: Colorado easily got by Georgetown 96-73 on Saturday, while FSU handled UNC Greensboro 64-54. The Buffs had an unusually awesome percentage from range in their opener and suffice it to say, I'm not expecting lightning to strike twice for them here. Overall the Buffs average 73.8 PPG, while allowing 63.6. 

The pick: Florida State allowed UNCG back into its opening round game, before finally pulling away for good in the final five minutes. Don't expect the Seminoles to take the foot off the gas here though. The Seminoles sport one of the deepest rotations in the country and I'm not reading too much into Colorado's win over an overrated Georgetown team, which somehow caught first in the Big East Tournament to advance. Look for the deeper and more experienced Seminoles to pull away and maintain down the stretch.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Florida State.

The set-up: Ohio is coming off a monumental 62-58 upset win over Virginia in the first round. Can anyone say letdown spot? The Bobcats are in unchartered territory now and I think they'll stumble here vs. the deeper and more experienced Blue Jays. Creighton avoided an upset with a 63-62 win over UCSB. 

The pick: Don't read too much into Ohio's win though. Yes, it was big and signficant, however UVA got hit by some major COVID issues just a week and half before the Tournament started. There's a big asterisk beside that victory. However, we can read a lot from Creighton's win, as the Blue Jays bent, but didn't break. The Blue Jays' numbers on the defensive end are more efficient and I expect that to play a part here as well. I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Creighton.

The set-up: Oral Roberts has been fantastic, but I think its Cindarella run comes to an end tonight. The Golden Eagles most recently go by Ohio State in the first round as 15 point underdogs. Florida though comes off an impressive victory over Virginia Tech as a 1.5 point dog and I think it's superior defensive play, and experience will be just too much Oral Roberts to handle in the second round. The Golden Eagles are great offensively, averaging 81.5 PPG, but they've been poor defensively, conceding 75.6. 

The pick: Florida averages 74 PPG, while conceding 69.8. There were plenty of BIG upsets in the first round. Both of these teams come in off upsets. Oral Roberts upset win in the first round can absolutely be classified as a "major" upset though. And this then sets it up for a letdown for sure. Look for Florida's depth on both ends of the court to be the difference and lay the points with confidence.

This is a 10* SECOND ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida.

The set-up: Texas Tech is 18-10, advancing by beating Utah State 65-53. Arkansas is 23-6 after getting the better of Colgate 85-68. I think the Red Raiders Mac McClung will be a matchup issue for Arkansas today. Texas Tech only allows 63 PPG this year, but just conceded 53 to the Aggies, and there's no reason not to think they won't bring that same intensity here towards the Razorbacks. 

The pick: Arkansas allows 70.6 PPG, and it just gave up 68 to Colgate. The Red Raiders are well-coachd and experienced and I look for their tough defensive play to be just too much for Arkansas to handle. Lay the the points.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Texas Tech.

The set-up: This is an instate rivalry, but these teams haven't played in over a decade. Illinois cruised by Drexel 78-49 and while I'm not expecting quite as big a blowout here, I do definitely expect Illinois to jump out to a quick lead, one which I expect it to hold onto going into the half-time break. The Ramblers played from behind in their 71-60 win over Georgia Tech last time out, and I think they are in fact "gassed" after that ordeal. 

The pick: Loyola Chicago's offense simply can't match pace with Illinois. The Illini come from the tough Big Ten as well and I think they'll be out to send a message here today. Note that Illinois is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after a 25 points or greater win in its last outing. Look for the Fightning Illni to put the foot on the gas to open up the FIRST HALF.

This is a 9* FIRST HALF DESTRUCTION on Illinois.

The set-up: Abilene Christian is 23-4, while Texas is 19-7. The Wildcats have won four in a row, most recently a 34-point victory over Nicholls in the conference tournament game. Abilene Christian is extremely adept defensively and I expect that fact to keep it competitive with the Longhorns late.

The pick: Texas has won five in a row, including beating Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game. Expectations are high for the Longhorns, but note that they're 0-9 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine netural site contests as an underdog in the +8.5 to +11.5 points range as well. The Wildcats have looked like one of the best and most dangerous mid-major teams and I look for them to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Albilene Christian.

The set-up: After seeing a bunch of favorites get the hook early on Friday, the Virginia Cavaliers will be cautious not to follow the same fate here in what is actually a very favorable matchup for them. Note that the Cavs are still the reigning NCAA Champion, because last year's tournament was cancelled. The Cavs had a small COVID issue, and one player will not be at the game today, but they've won seven of their last ten and three in a row. 

The pick: Ohio has won nine of its last ten games. It's had to deal with COVID issues this year as well. The Bobcats lack the depth and experience a this level though, and note that the Cavs are 10-3 straight-up in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 after an ATS loss. The Cavs are well-coached and their defense is suffocating. Look for UVA to pull away for a comfortable win and cover on Saturday night.

This is a 10* FIRST ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on UVA.

The set-up: No upsets here. There were a bunch yesterday obviously, but I expect the Wolverines to come in focussed and to pull away in the second half for a comfortable win and cover. Texas Southern has won ten games in a row, including an eight-point victory over Mount St. Mary's in the FIRST FOUR. 

The pick: Michigan is 20-4 this year. The Wolverines will come in angry after getting upset by Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament by a point. Wolverines head coach Juwan Howard had this to say of his team's great season in the tough Big Ten Conference: "It's been a great experience for not only players but the coaches as well. All we've dealt with has truly prepared us for this time. Some of the close games that we've had this year, the overtime victory that we've had, a loss during a close game. We've also experienced some games that we've really dominated on both ends of the floor. It's prepared us for this moment." The Wolverines bring a ton of experience here and they're 4-1-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as the favorite, while The Tigers are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten Saturday games (does that matter? It certainly doesn't help!) Texas Southern ranks 237th in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Michigan ranks seventh. Lay the points.

This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on Michigan.

The set-up: Houston smoked Cincinnati in the ACC Tournament Championship game, but I think it'll have its hands full here with this underrated Cleveland State side. The Vikings are the Horizon League Tourney champ after dispatching Oakland 80-69. Cleveland State averages only 69.5 PPG, but it's one of the best on the defensive ends, especially at defending the three-ball, allowing just 30.4 percent from range, which ranks 34th in the country.

The pick: Houston allows only 57.6 PPG, while scoring 77.6. Clearly the Cougars are a good team, but note that they're just 1-4 ATS in their last five after scoring 90 or more points in their previous outing. The Vikings on the other hand are 7-1 ATS in their last eight as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games. I think the Vikings tough defensive play keeps them competitive late. No outright, but much closer than what this massive spread would suggest. Grab the points.

This is a 10* COACHS CORNER on Cleveland State.

The set-up: Georgia Tech finished 17-8. Loyola Chicago finished 24-4. The Yellow Jackets are led by Jose Alvarado and they allow 70 PPG. Loyola Chicago though is led by senior center Cameron Krutwig, who actually helped lead the Ramblers to a Final Four berth in his freshman year in 2018. 

The pick: The Ramblers own one of the top defenses in the country, conceding just 55.5 PPG. Finally, the Yellow Jackets are going to have play this game without standout Moses Wright as well. While I do think an outright upset is possible, in the end let's grab the points.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Loyola Chicago.

The set-up: Virginia Tech finished 15-8, losing to UNC in the Conference Tournament, hwile Florida finished 14-9, losing to Tenneesee in its Tournament. Virginia Tech struggled down the stretch, losing two of its final three. In the loss to the Tar Heels it allowed 81 points. 

The pick: The Gators issues this year revolve around their offense, but clearly they catch a break here facing this struggling Hokies defense. Florida has to push the pace here and break out of its offensive slump if it has any hopes at competing. Expect each to push the pace and for this one to fly "over" as it comes down the stretch.

This is an 8* TOTAL TOURNEY PLAY-BOOK on the OVER VT/Florida.

The set-up: UCLA enters on a four-game losing streak. That included a first round exit in the conference tournament to the eventual champion Oregon State Beavers. It was a tight game though, as the  Bruins eventually lost 83-79 in OT. Michigan State had an up and down year as well. The Spartans lost in the first round of their conference tournament as well by a score of 68-57 to Maryland. 

The pick: UCLA averages 72.8 PPG, and it concedes 68.5. Michigan State on the other hand averages 69 PPG, while allowing 70.6. The Spartans are also a poor 5-11 ATS in their last 16 following an ATS loss and just 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral site games, while UCLA has in fact performed very well in this spot for bettors of late, going 7-3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog. Clearly I think the outright is going to happen, but in the end I'm still grabbing the points.

This is a 10* FIRST-FOUR PLAY-BOOK on UCLA.

The set-up: Toledo finished 21-8, while Ricmond was 13-8. The Rockets finished averaging 81.3 PPG, whiel conceding 71.4. The Spiders average 75.6 PPG, while allowing only 69.3. 

The pick: Richmond ended the season by losing three straight, but this is a deep and talented Spiders team which comes from the much tougher conference. Toledo has been great no doubt, but its competition has to be called into question here, as its offensive numbers are skewed due to that talent level faced. I think Richmond can win this one outright, but in the end I'll grab the points.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Richmond.

The set-up: Two hungry teams collide in the Big Ten Championship game. Illinois beat No. 5 Iowa 82-71, while Ohio State upset No. 3 Michigan with a 68-67 victory. Ohio State jumped out to an early lead, but the Buckeyes faltered late and allowed Michigan back into it. Duane Washington Jr. was a stand out with 24 points, six boards and four assists. Overall the Buckeyes average 77 PPG, while allowing 70.3. 

The pick: Ohio State is going to have its hands full today with one of the Nation's top offenses, as the Fighting Illini average 81 PPG, while allowing 68.6. Ohio State is very efficent offensively, ranking fifth in the KenPom rankings in shooting splits and in free-throw shooting. Expect these two highly effective offenses to push this total well "over" once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Ohio State/Illinois.

The set-up: The Longhorns are after their first tournament title, advancing to the finals after Kansas withdrew due to COVID concerns. In their last game they beat Texas Tech by a score of 67-66. The Cowboys are coming off a huge 83-74 win over Baylor as nine-point dogs. I think Oklahoma State is going to be in trouble here vs. this hard-nosed Texas defense which concedes just 68.2 PPG.

The pick: The Cowboys average 76.5  PPG, while allowing 72.2. The Longhorns average 74.6. But fatigue is a factor here. Nerves are a factor here. Expect each team to double down on the defensive end and for this total to fall "under" once it's all said and done.

This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER OKS/Texas.

The set-up: Michigan advanced to the semi finals with a 79-66 win over Maryland. Ohio State has won two straight in the Conference tournament to advance, most recently an 87-78 OT win over Purdue to advance. Michigan won the lone regular season battle on the road between the teams, a 92-87 thriller and I'm expecting a similar style battle, and ultimately higher-scoring contest here as well. Ohio State has gotten out to two early big leads so far in the tournament, only to then allow its opponent to get back into the contest. The Buckeyes will look to avoid that here, and they'll have to match pace obviously with the high-flying Wolverines. 

The pick: Ohio State averages 77.3 PPG, while Michigan averages 76.6. Each is adept defensively as well, but their strengths lie on the offensive end. And I believe it'll be these offenses on full display on Saturday afternoon as each side gets out and pushes the pace from start to finish. This number is a little low.

This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Buckeyes/Wolverines.

The set-up: Both teams have been playing to a whole lot of "unders" of late, but I believe that has now pushed this O/U number a little bit too low. Both regular season matchups between these teams flew well "over" the number, and I absolutely expect that again to be the case here. 

The pick: Yes, these are two great defenses, but these offenses are loaded with talent as well. The trends/numbers support our theory this morning as well, as note that Maryland has seen the total go "over in seven of its last ten after holding its previous opponent to under 60 points in a SU/ATS victory, while Michigan has seen the total soar "over" in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. This number is low, the play is the over.

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOURNEY TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Maryland/Michigan.

The set-up: South Carolina plays with revenge here in the Tournament after losing the only regualr season matchup with Ole Miss by a score of 81-74. While the Gamecocks lost that contest by seven, I expect this one to come right down to the wire, where whichever team has its hands on the ball last will come out on top. South Carolina lost its final two games of the regular season, but it played the Rebels competitively in the regular season and I expect that to happen again here. 

The pick: Ole Miss has a significant advantage on the defensive side of the ball, but the Rebels are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as a favorite in the +6 to +9 points range as well. I like SC to battle tough and to at the very least, take this one down to the final moments. Grab the points.

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL TOURNEY BLOWOUT on South Carolina.

The set-up: Oklahoma State upset WVU by ten points in its regular season finale, so it'll have its hands full here in trying to duplicate that 85-80 win. I can't see WVU allowing the Cowboys to run up the score again like that, instead I expect the revenge-minded favorite to really clamp down on the defensive end from the opening tip, until the final horn. 

The pick: It sets up well as a lower-scoring game from a trend-based stand-point as well, as note that WVU has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge an in-season home loss to an opponent of ten or more points. This number is a tad high.

This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Oklahoma State/West Virginia.

The set-up: Oklahoma State just upset the Mountaineers 85-80 as ten-point dogs, but after winning six of their final seven games down the stretch of the regular season, I look for the Cowboys to finally take a step back here. Overall Oklahoma State averages a decent 76.7 PPG, but it concedes 72.3. 

The pick: WVU is etter on both end of the floor, averaging 77.6 PPG, while allowing 72.1. The Cowboys have actually won four out of the last seven in this series, so the Mountaineers have added incentive in this matchup. Finally note that WVU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed 85 or more points in. Lay the short points.

This is a 10* BIG 12 BEST OF THE BEST on West Virginia.

The set-up: I expect a really high-scoring game here. UTEP has won four of its last five. It averages 70.8 PPG and it allows 68.2. FAU enters on top form as well, having won four straight. The Owls average 78.6 PPG, while allowing 66.3. 

The pick: The "over" though is 4-1 in the Minders last five neutral site games, while FAU has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after a three games or longer SU/ATS unbeaten streak. These teams have been great down the stretch and I expect that to translate into offensive production in this tournament contest. This number is a little low.

This is an 8* TOTAL BARN-BURNER on the OVER UTEP/FAU.

The set-up: I like the Bucknell Bison to sneak in through the back door comfortably in this one. Bucknell advanced to the semis with a 92-84 win over Lafayette. Colgate got here by defeating Boston 77-69. 

The pick: The Bison though are 7-3 ATS in their last ten vs. teams with winning records, while Colgate is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after back-to-back SU/ATS victories. Colgate hasn't been good at covering big numbers at home and I expect that trend to continue here vs. this high-scoring Bison side. Grab as many points as you can.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Bucknell.

The set-up: The Horned Frogs are allowing 71.2 PPG. K-State and TCU play at slower paces, but all signs point to this opening conference tournament game being a bit more wide open.  

The pick: And that's because note, K-State has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row, while TCU has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in trying to revenge a loss to an opponent in which it scored 55 points or less in. This number is now a little too low, the play is the over.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER K-State/TCU.

The set-up: LBSU is 5-11 and Cal State is 8-12. The 49ers average 72.3 PPG, while allowing 79.5. The Matadors average 72.5 and concede 77.3. These are the two bottom feeders going head to head here in the opener of the conference tournament, and with nothing to lose, I'm definitely expecting a very faster-paced, wide-open affair. 

The pick: Additionally note that the "over" is 5-2 in LBSU's last seven neutral site games while CSU Northridge has seen the total go "over" in six of its last eight neutral site games. I don't expect any defense to played at all and I believe this total will eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the OVER LBSU/CSU Northridge.

The set-up: Boston College enters this game with a 4-15 record, losing by four to Miami on the road in its last game. Duke enters with an 11-11 record, falling by 18 points on the road in its previous outing. BC has been terrible this season, on both ends of the court. 

The pick: This has been Duke's worst year in memory as well, as it enters the Tournament on a three-game slide. Duke still has an oppportunity to make the Big Dance though if it can win a couple games in the Conference Tournament, so here's the perfect opponent to get untracked against. I think Duke doubles down on the defensive end now that the Tournament is here and I look for this total to sneak under once the final buzzer blares.

This is a 10* ACC TOURNEY TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER BC/Duke.

The set-up: This is the Summit League Tournament. South Dakota State is 14-10 and it's coming off a win over UM Kansas on Sunday to advance. The Bison average only 69.3 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end by conceding just 67.2. 

The pick: South Dakota advanced by beating Western Illinois. The Coyotes average 75.6 pPG, while allowing 72. Both teams though have struggled with offensive consistency in this position, as evidenced by the fact that North Dakota State has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 games following a SU win and on zero days rest, while South Dakota has seen the total go "under" in nine of its last 13 after scoring 85 points or more in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing. I expect each team to double-down on the defensive end here, as each comes in tired after their respective victories on Sunday. This number is indeed high.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER North Dakota State/South Dakota.

The set-up: These teams played on Thursday and the Wolverines managed the 69-50 victory. Michigan is still in hunt for the No. 1 seed in the Big Dance, but with the regular season title wrapped up and the Big Ten Tournament to now look ahead too, I do indeed believe that the Wolverines will get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. 

The pick: Michigan State could earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament with an upset win today. It's also senior night at Michigan State. There's a lot on the line today for the home side. Revenge from the immediate loss. Senior night. A spot in the Big Dance on the line. Michigan isn't going to lose this game, but I believe the conditions are definitely right for a much more competitive battle than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. This is a few too many points to be giving up, so make sure to grab as many as you can.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State.

The set-up: Wisconsin will be laying everything on the line here in my estimation as it looks to avoid a three-game losing streak to end the season. The Badgers have actually lost four of their last five, including a tight 73-69 defeat to at No. 23 Purdue on Tuesday. Iowa is still in a hunt for a No. 1 seed, but after its big 102-64 spanking of Neraska, I think it comes out a bit complacent here. This is a revenge game for Wisconsin, which lost 77-62 at home to the Hawkeyes back on February 18th (note that the Badgers are 7-2 ATS In their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which it lost both SU and ATS and in which it scored 65 or less points in.) 

The pick: Iowa has a great offense, but it's defense is its weakness. I'll point out as well that the Hawkeyes are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after back-to-back SU/ATS victories. Look for this one to come right down to the wire and grab as many points as you can.

This is an 8* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on Wisconsin.

The set-up: The Rebels lost to No. 19 SDSU last time out. With the victory, the Aztecs claimed the MWC regular season title. Despite that though, UNLV has been playing well of late, winning three of its last five. Overall the Rebels have averaged 69.7 PPG this season, while allowing 67.3. 

The pick: Wyoming is ripe for the picking here after having four of its last seven games canceled or postponed due to COVID. Most recently the Cowboys lost 72-59 to Utah State. Wyoming has poor numbers, averaging 75.4 PPG, while allowing 75.9. The Rebels are playing better and have a golden opportunity to close out strong against this disorganized Wyoming side. A great situational spot wager on UNLV.

This is a 10* MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF THE MONTH on UNLV.

The set-up: Villanova is the better team, but I think the home side can at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Villanova enters off a 12 point win over Creighton at home. The Wildcats though are just 11-9 ATS. The Friars are 11-13 ATS this seaosn. Villanova is the better team here, but this one has battle till the end written all over it. 

The pick: Providence is good on the boards and it plays better at home. The Friars also play with revenge here after falling 71-56 at Villanova earlier in the season (note that they're 6-3 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge a road loss of ten or more points vs. an opponent.) I'm grabbing the points and getting the popcorn ready!

This is an 8* UNDERDOG DESTRUCTION on Providence.

The set-up: I think FSU gets caught looking past Notre Dame this afternoon. The Seminoles enter off a relatively simple 29 oint home win over Boston College, but note that they've split their first six true road games this year. 

The pick: The Irish are going to be in a terrible mood here after losing four straight, including an upset loss to NC State at home in their most recent. Notre Dame is just 5-5 at home, but note that the Irish have responded well in this spot for bettors by going 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a ten points or greater SU home loss in their last outing. Expect the home side to play with pride as it looks to close out the regular season with a signature victory. That said, grab the points for sure.

This is a 9* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on Notre Dame.

The set-up: No upsets here in our opinion. Cal Irvine is 14-8 this year and the Anteaters won't take the foot off the gas with the regular season finish line in sight. LBSU is just 5-9 and it enters having lost two straight. LBSU has a good offense which averages 73.6 PPG, but the Anteaters have an exceptional defense which concedes just 64.3. 

The pick: UC Irvine's offense is averaging only 64.3 PPG as well, but the visitors catch a break here for sure facing this terrible LBSU defense which allows 80.6 PPG. LBSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four at home, while UC Irvine is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 when playing with four-plus days of rest. Look for the Anteaters to come in focussed and for their superior defense to be the difference-maker in the end.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on UC Irvine.

The set-up: Both offenses can for sure "light it up," but this total is just too high in our opinion now. The total earlier in the year between these clubs was set at 147, and it did go "over" in the final seconds of that contest, but I don't see that happening again here. Ball State has scored at least 90 points over its last three games, but that offensive output is unsustainable now. 

The pick: Both teams are poor at rebounding, so second chance points are going to be hard to come by (also note that Toledo does a great job of limiting its fouling.) Ball State is second best in the conference as well in defending the three ball. When you add it all up, this total is indeed a little high, definitely considering how competitive I'm expecting it to be. 

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Ball State/Toledo.

The set-up: Canisius is 6-4 and Siena is 11-3. The Griffins are 5-1 in their last six, but they're coming off a loss in their last outing to Fairfield. Canisius has had to deal with several COVID postponements this season

The pick: The Saints enter having won three straight. Sienna is better at home than on the road, coming in having gone 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 in friendly confines. I can't trust the Griffins on the road. The Saints haven't been great against the spread, but they've been playing really well lately, scoring 68 or more points in three straight wins and allowing 70 or less at the same time. I look for the Saints to pull away down the stretch for a comfortable cover.

This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Siena.

The set-up: This is the first round of the A-1 Championship. George Washington crushed Fordham 71-47 back on December 30th, but I think the hungry Rams can keep this one much more competitive now that the Tournament is here. Fordham won't be lacking for motivation after two straight losses. The Rams average only 52 PPG, while the Colonials average 69.7. 

The pick: Fordham's defense has been decent though, conceding just 67.6 PPG. Of course, when you score less than you allow, it's hard to win on most nights. The Colonials though lost four of their last five games down the stretch and have zero momentum here. George Washington's numbers over the last month are so terrible, that they're now comparable to Fordham's. In this battle of bottom feeders, I'm going to grab the points and expect it to be much closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Fordham.

The set-up: Fort Wayne enters the Horizon League Tournament with an 8-14 record. The Mastadons enter with momentum as well afte rwinning two of three, most recently a victory over Green Bay. The Vikings are 16-7 and they're won two of their last three as well. 

The pick: Cleveland State though has been off since February 20th, when it defeated this very Purdue Fort Wayne team by a score of 67-55. The longer two week lay off isn't going to help with chemistry and note that the Mastadons are 5-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS victory. I expect a battle until the final moments, so grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue Fort Wayne.

The set-up: Clearly WKU is the better team. The Hilltoppers are 16-5, but I don't think they're going to be able to cover this large spread. The FIU Panthers are 9-15. FIU won't be lacking for motivation after losing six in a row. The Panthers average 74.9 PPG, and they allow 76. 

The pick: WKU comes in complacent here after winning seven of its last eight, including a 91-58 blowout victory over FIU in its last outing. Winning can lead to complacency (especially at the Collegiate level), and that's what I'm expecting here. With a final home series vs. fourth place ODU up next, this also sets up as a "look-ahead" spot for the home side. I like FIU to keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. 

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Florida International.

The set-up: The Aggies took the first game on Friday night by a score of 75-72. This is a battle between the third and fifth ranked teams. This game means much more to Utah State at this point though, because its still currently on the outside of the NCAA Tournament looking in. Utah State has already moved into third though after Boise State lost to SDSU. Utah State needs to win its last three games and it has a chance to run down Colorado State still. 

The pick: Nevada played well and covered two nights ago, but previous to that it hadn't played since early February due to COVID issues. I think the Wolfpack get caught flat-footed here now in this second contest and vs. this determined home side. Nevada gave its best shot and came up short last time out and with a chance to end their Tournament hopes, I like the Aggies to find a way to deliver the goods. 

This is a 10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on Utah State.

The set-up: The 49ers are third in the Conference USA and 47th in the country in scoring defense, limiting their opposition to just 64.9 PPG. Charlotte is also proficient from the charity stripe, ranked third in the conference. Charlotte took both meetings last year, this is the first this season. However note that the 49ers lost to UTEP 57-53 the last time these teams played in El Paso back in 2019, so the visiting side won't be taking anything for granted.

The pick: The Miners are 10-10 overall and 6-8 in league play. UTEP averages 71 PPG, and it allows 69.6. Note though that Charlotte has done extremely well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games as an underdog in the +4.5 to +6.5 points range. This one is going to come down to the final moments, so I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Charlotte.

The set-up: Miami Ohio has won two straight and I like the Red Hawks to continue to push hard with the end of the regular season just around the corner. WMU though enters having lost two in a row. WMU has had three of its last five games postponed due to COVID, and teams having to deal with these issues have almost always struggled in every circumstance. The Broncos only average 63.5 PPG. 

The pick: WMU lost to Miami Ohio a few weeks ago and only managed 56 points in that one. Miami Ohio comes to town off its best game of the entire seaosn as well, smoking Central Michigan 96-54. Finally note that WMU is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while Miami Ohio is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing straight-up record. Lay the points, expect a comfortable cover.

This is a 10* MAC DESTRUCTION on Miami Ohio.

The set-up: I like betting on motivated teams. There's only a handful of games remaining in the regualr season and South Carolina will be eager to snap a five-game slide. Most recently the Gamecocks enter off a 93-78 home loss to Missouri as 3.5 point underdogs. This is also a revenge game for South Carolina, which lost 75-59 in Columbia as a 2.5 point underdog back on February 6th. Ovearll South Carolina averages 74.2 PPG, while allowing 78.4.

The pick: Mississippi State is going to get caught complacent here, as it just revenged an earlier loss to rival Ole Miss in its last outing. Teh Bulldogs average only 70.1 PPG, while allowing 66.4. I think the home side comes out flat here after its big win and I think the hungrier revenge minded visiting team will at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door. Grab the poins.

This is a 10* REVENGE ELITE OF THE ELITE on South Carolina.

The set-up: The Hokies are coming off an OT win at Miami, and after surviving that near disaster, I like them to come in focussed here vs. this dangerous Georgia Tech side. Virginia Tech hasn't playes since February 9th, but it's desperate for a win here. Georiga Tech has been playing well against some good teams, but it keeps coming up short. Overall the Jackets allow 67.2 PPG. 

The pick: Virginia Tech is dealing with a couple injuries, but with so much time off to prepare, I don't see this being an issue at all. I think Georgia Tech is primed for a letdown here vs. a desperate Hokies side. These teams haven't played this year, but VT does play with revenge as well after falling 76-57 to the Jackets last season. I'm laying the short points, but expecting a major blowout!

This is a 10* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech.

The set-up: They say revenge is a dish best served cold. Oklahoma State won this game by eight points on the road as an 8.5 point underdog in mid January. The Red Raiders are still ranked, but after back-to-back losses, this is now a "must win" game. The Red Raiders average 73.6 PPG, while allowing 62.9. The Cowboys are primed for a letdown here after winning five of their last six. Oklahoma State averages 75.8 PPG, while allowing 70.6. 

The pick: Texas Tech is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge an in-season home loss of five or more points to an opponent as well. Texas Tech's defense, combined with the stellar play of Mac McClung is the difference-maker. Lay the points.

This is a 10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST on Texas Tech.

The set-up: The Terrapins are on the road to face Rutgers, and they come to town on top form, having won three straight, most recently getting the better of Nebraska 79-71. The Scarlet Knights are ahead of the Terps in the standings, but they come in off a 71-64 road loss at Michigan. Maryland's defense has been great though this season, allowing just 65.6 PPG this year. Rutgers hasn't been quite as stout, allowing 68.1 PPG. 

The pick: Rutgers does have the rebounding advantage, and it produces more steals per game, but note that it's just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after scoring 65 points or less in a SU road loss in its last outing. In a contest which I see being decided by whichever of these team's has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* BLOWOUT DESTRUCTION on Maryland.

The set-up: Eastern Washington is 11-6 and Montana is 9-11. Eastern Washington won this game by 14 points on Thursday. Eastern Washington won 90-76, and while that contest flew well "over" the number, I expect a more defensive affair here finally. 

The pick: Montana has been hovering right around .500 for most of the season and hasn't won back-to-back games since mid January. Montana looked a lot better in the second half vs. Eastern Washington two nights ago, especially on the defensive end and I like it to carry that momentum over here. This number is now a little high in my opinion.

This is a 9* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Eastern Washington/Montana.

The set-up: Kansas is now 16-7 after its 59-41 win over K-State on Wednesday. Texas Tech returns to action after an 82-71 loss to WVU on February 9th to fall to 14-6 overall. It was a tough loss for the Red Raiders, who had two games postponed. Not due to COVID issues though, but rather weather related. Because of this, I think it in fact works in favor of Texas Tech. Overall Texas Tech averages 74.2 PPG, while allowing 62.7. 

The pick: The Jayhawks average 74 PPG, while allowing 66.2. Kansas is coming off the satisfying win over its rival and note that it's only 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records. Also note that the road team is 5-2 ATS in its last seven head-to-head meetings. Four of the Jayhawks last five wins have come against bottom feeders. Expect the Red Raiders to pull off the minor upset here, but grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Texas Tech.

The set-up: Cleveland State is 15-6 and IPFW is 6-13. The Mastadons play their final two regular season games here and I like them to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Mastadons had lost eight straight against the spread before their 72-70 loss to Youngstown State last time out, proving that they're still trying to post victories here at the end of the season and remain competitive.

The pick: These teams played twice at Cleveland State earlier in the year and the Vikings won both games. Both games were competitive though, 63-61 and 89-80. I expect another battle until the end, meaning I'll definitely be grabbing as many points as I can!

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Purdue Fort Wayne.

The set-up: Iowa has won two a row to move to 9-5 in Big Ten play. Iowa most recently hammered Michigan State 88-58 on Saturday. Wisconsin though enters having lost two straight to fall go 9-6 in conference play. Most recently the Badgers lost 67-59 to Michigan. The Badgers will have to push the pace here though to keep up with Iowa's high-flying offense which enters averaging 87.4 PPG. The Hawkeyes aren't nearly as good on the defensive side though, allowing 73.5 PPG. 

The pick: The Badgers are averaging 70.3 PPG, while conceding 62.6. Wisconsin though should be noted that it's seen the total go "over" the number in ten of its last 14 after two or more SU losses in a row. I look for Iowa to push the pace and for the hungry Badgers to respond. Look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Iowa/Wisconsin.

The set-up: Mercer is 12-8 and East Tennessee State is 12-9. The Bears average 79.1 PPG, which is pretty good, but they allow 74.3, which isn't particularly great. East Tennessee State will try to take advantage here, as it averages 70 PPG, while allowing 65.1. 

The pick: The "over" though is 7-3 in the Bears last ten road games and I'm definitely anticipating a more wide open contest here, where each teams pushes the pace from the opening tip, until the final horn. A faster pace = more shots and more shots = more points. Look for these two front runners to eclipse this posted total sooner, rather than later.

This is a 10* TTOAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Mercer/East Tennessee State.

The set-up: Austin Peay is 13-8, while Southeast Missouri State is 7-14. These teams played at Austin Peay a few nights ago and the Governors hammered the Redhawks 78-63. But with a game at 17-5 Eastern Kentucky up next, I think the visiting side will have a much more difficult time duplicating its offensive performance against this revenge-minded SE Missouri State team on the road. After winning five of seven, and with the upcoming two-game series vs. Eastern Kentucky, this one sets up as a trap for the visitors. 

The pick: The Redhawks are the "hungrier" side here, as they look to snap a three-game losing streak. The Governors are the deeper, more experienced team, but this situation favors the home side. I'll stop short in predicting an outright upset, but everything points to this one coming right down to the wire.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on SE Missouri State.

The set-up: These are two good teams. Two good defensive teams. I think this number is a little low though. East Tennessee State enters off a 71-49 win over Wofford in its last outing. The Bucs average 71 PPG, while conceding 65.8. Overall the Buccaneers are 12-8 overall.

The pick: Chattanooga is 16-5 overall. The Mocs enter off a 70-66 win over the Citadel. Chattoonga averages 74.3 PPG, while allowing 69.8. The "over" is 8-3 in the Mocs last 11 home games. These two teams beat other teams with their tough defensive play, but when these two strengths collide, I feel that the value in this one has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. This number is a little low in my estimation.

This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER East Tennessee State/Chattanooga.

The set-up: Virginia sits atop the conference after taking out UNC 60-48 at 11-1 thus far. Florida State enters of a momentum-building 92-85 OT win over Wake Forest and it's now 11-3 overall and 7-2 in ACC action. The Cavaliers of course get the job done with their smothering defensive play (58.8 per contest conceded), as they enter averaging 69.9 PPG. 

The pick: The Seminoles average 79.1 PPG, while conceding just 69.4. This is a team which likes to get down and dirty defensively as well, but it's their up-tempo pace on offense which I think UVA will have difficulties matching. Especially on the road. Yes, this is a much-improved UVA team, one of the best that FSU has seen all year. But the said can also be said for the Cavaliers, on the road facing an underrated and dangerous FSU side. I'm going with FSU to win at home in this one.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State.

The set-up: This is a revenge game for ASU after it fell 80-79 at Oregon State in the final moments. Oregon State though is just 10-9 overall with a 6-7 league record, entering this one on a two-game slide, most recently falling 70-61 on the road to the Arizona Wildcats. Arizona State is only 6-9 overall and 3-6 in conference play. Most recently the Sun Devils lost 75-64 to Oregon on Thursday. 

The pick: Overall these teams numbers are very similar. ASU's offense is slightly better and Oregon State's defense is a little better. The back-to-back road games isn't doing Oregon State any favors though. Home floor, combined with the revenge factor (note that ASU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge an in-season road loss to an opponent in which it allowed 80 or more points in. Lay the points, expect a blowout.

This is a 10* PLAYBOOK on Arizona State.

The set-up: These are two poor teams, but I think this one will be decided by whichever side has its hands on the ball last. Miami is 7-11 overall and 3-10 in league play. Most recently it lost 80-76 to Virginia Tech. However, a postponement in its game vs. UNC on Monday will be beneficial for sure in my opinion for the Hurricanes, who get an extra couple days off to focus and prepare to take advantage. 

The pick: The Irish are just 8-10 overall and 5-7 in conference action. Notre Dame looks primed for a letdown here as well after a 93-89 win over Duke on Tuesday. Neither team will qualify for the Big Dance, so motivation in that respect simply isn't there for either of these team's right now. Miami has had to deal with plenty of injury issues, but it plays with revenge here after falling 73-59 at home to the Irish earlier in the season. I think Notre Dame gets caught flat-footed after its big win from last time out and I like the hungrier Hurricanes to keep this one interesting down the stretch. Grab the points.

This is an 8* ACC DESTRUCTION on Miami.

The set-up: It's an immediate revenge scenario for lowly UNLV, which lost 78-66 to the Broncos on Thursday. I expect a tighter contest here and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to this one coming right down to the wire in my opinion. Bryce Hamilton is a matchup issue for any team. If Hamilton can get any type of support, the Rebels have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright (he finished with 26 points on Thursday.) Overall UNLV allows just 68.1 PPG.

The pick: The Broconos average 78.4 PPG. They shot 50 percent in the win on Thursday. Boise State previous to this series lost two straight to Nevada, while splitting with Colorado. Consistency from game-to-game has been an issue of late for Boise State and I think that pattern continues here. Again, I don't think it'll have such a huge collapse here that it loses outright, but I do think the this line is inflated. Expect the hungrier team to keep this one interesting down the stretch and grab the points.

This is a 10* MOUNTAIN-WEST GAME OF THE MONTH on UNLV.

The set-up: While the outright victory is obviously not out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Northeastern comes to town on a seven-game win streak and in first place. Towson is on a seven-game losing streak. Northeastern is 10-4 ATS this year, but I think it's asking too much to cover his mid-sized spread on the road vs. this super hungry and motivated home side. The Huskies aren't great offensively, but they make up for it on the other end by conceding just 68.6 PPG. Towson allows 76.5. 

The pick: The Tigers are a really good rebounding team and they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine after five or more SU/ATS losses in a row. The Huskies are the better team this year, but I think they'll have their hands full until the final moments. Grab the points.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Towson.

The set-up: K-State is bad. It's 5-16 overall and 1-11 in conference action. The Wildcats are riding an 11-game losing streak, most recently falling 80-77 to Texas. Oklahoma State is 12-6 overall, but just 5-6 in conference action. The Cowboys enter off a 78-66 loss on Monday to Kansas. K-State's defense catches a break here facing this inconsisteent Cowboys offense. 

The pick: K-State averages just 63 PPG, while the Cowboys average 76.2. The Wildcats though have seen the total go "under" in seven of their last ten road games after allowing 80 or more points in a SU loss in their last outing. I expect a hard-fought, but ultimately lower-scoring contest here. The play is the under.

This is a 9* O/U ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER K-State/Oklahoma State.

The set-up: San Diego is 4-5 so far, while Cal State Bakersfield is 12-7. These teams offensive and defensive numbers aren't drastically different. I just think that it sets up well for San Diego, as it's 5-1 ATS in its last six after posting 100 or more points in a SU home victory in its last outing (won 101-64 over Bethesda.) 

The pick: The Roadrunners are going to be caught looking ahead to a two-game road set at Conference leading UC Santa Barbara and the hungry Tritons are going to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on San Diego.

The set-up: Both teams have been playing to plenty of "overs" of late and I now think that this O/U line is a bit too high. North Kentucky has seen the total go "over" in six straight, while Wisconsin Green Bay has seen the total go "over" in five straight (that was after seeing it go "under" in five straight.) The Phoenix average 71.4 PPG, while UNK averages 71.1. When you add those two figures up, we land right on this posted number essentially. So why is today's going "under?" 

The pick: Northern Kentucky is locked into third spot in the conference right now, while Green Bay is near the bottom. However, not only do I strongly feel that this O/U line is inflated, but note that UNK has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 road games after two more straight ATS covers in a row, while Wisconsin Green Bay has seen the total dip below in 14 of its last 20 home games after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. I think the home side plays UNK tough here at home and I expect that to result finally in a lower-scoring "under."

This is a 10* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER UNK/Green Bay.

The set-up: All six of Montana's Big Sky losses have been decided in the final seconds, with three by three points or fewer, and none being by more than six points (which was a double OT defeat). In short, the Grizzlies win/loss record could easily be a lot better if a couple lucky bounces went their way. It's very interesting to note as well, that over its last three series, Montana has won the first game, only to lose the second two days later. 

The pick: Weber State is primed for a letdown after four-straight victories. With a home and home set vs. Eastern Washington next week, the road ahead doesn't get any easier for the Grizzlies. This is a crucial contest for the season and I don't think that home court advantage can be looked past. Montana is the hungrier dog in this fight and I like it to deliver on home-court.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on Montana.

The set-up: A couple of bottom feeders going head-to-head here, but I don't think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular case. Both teams come in off losses. Wake lost 79-58 to the Fighting Irish, while Boston College lost 81-65 to NC State. The Notre Dame loss snapped a five-game ATS win streak as well for the Demon Deacons and I think they'll take another step back here as well. Overall Wake averages 69.2 PPG, while allowing 68.7.

The pick: Boston College returned to action after missing three weeks in the loss to the Wolfpack, and it looked ugly early, as NC State went on a 37-3 run at one point, before the Eagles close the first half at 44-21. BC was without a couple of players as well in that one, but the team looked much stronger as the game went on and considering the circumstances and the way the contest opened, the Eagles definitley pulled it together quickly and finished that one strong. And I feel there's no reason not to believe they can't carry that momentum over here as well. With the rust of a few weeks off now gone, look for BC to come out much faster this time around. The Eagles average 72.1 PPG, while allowing 78.4, but note tha they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine home gaems after allowing 80 or more points in a SU/ATS loss in their last outing. I like BC to find a way to get the job done here.

This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston College.

The set-up: Creighton has been struggling against the spread for bettors, losing three in a row. One of those losses was an outright loss at home to Georgetown just last week. The Blue Jays were favored by 14 points in that one. Georgetown has a losing record, but it's 8-6 ATS overall this season. The Hoyas have covered in five straight games, including in their last one when they lost 84-74 at Villanova as 13.5 point underdogs.

The pick: After that close call, I think the Hoyas definitely take a step back here. Creighton is ready to avenge last week's setback and the spread it has to cover here is almost cut in half of what it was in that contest. Much more manageable and realistic and I expect the Blue Jays to deliver in this fantastic situational opportunity. Lay the points.

This is a 10* BIG EAST GAME OF THE YEAR on Creighton.

The set-up: This is the second game of a two-game slate. The firsg game went "under," but I expect more of a "shootout" here. The Runnin Rebels took the first game 68-58. UNLV is now 4-5 in league play. Air Force is 4-13 overall now and only 2-11 in conerence action. Air Force actually shot 47 percent from range in the loss, but only 43 percent from the rest of the field. Look for the Falcons to be much more efficient here. 

The pick: Bryce Hamilton had 22 points and 13 boards for the Rebels in the latest victory and I expect him to have another monster game tonight. Expect a much looser, faster-paced game here after the first, slower-paced, tighter affair. Finally note that Air Force has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 60 or less points in a SU road loss in its last outing. 

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Air Force/UNLV.

The set-up: Northwestern won't be lacking for motivation here as it's just 3-8 in league play. Most recently the Wildcats fell to Rutgers. In fact, Northwestern enters having lost eight in a row. Here's the perfect opponent to get untracked against, as Purdue has lost two of three, including a 61-60 setback to Maryland in its most recent outing. Northwestern averages 74.7 PPG< and it allows 71.9.

The pick: Purdue only allows 66.3, but the Boilermakers offense isn't any better by averaging 73.9. Northwestern is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games after a five-games or longer SU losing streak. I think Purdue struggles with focus here after its latest road loss and I like the Wildcats to risk life and limb today as they try to get off the schneid. I'm grabbing the points.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Northwestern.

The set-up: Western Carolina is 8-10 so far, while the Citadel Bulldogs are 9-7. The Catamounts come in hungry to return to the winners circle after a loss to Chattanooga last time out. The Citadel won't be lacking for motivation here either after three-straight losses. Betting on "motivated" teams when playing an "over" is something I always look for and this contest sets up perfectly as far as that angle is concerned. Keep your eyes on Xavier Cork for the visiting side, as he had 18 points and four boards in WCU's latest 74-67 loss to the Mocs.

The pick: The Citadel is entering off an 85-66 loss to the Spartans, but Hayden Brown was a bright spot with 19 points and seven boards. Note that the Bulldogs though have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 home games after being held to 68 or less points in a SU/ATS loss in their last outing. These teams met last Monday, and the Catamounts posted the 76-75 win. I expect another hard-fought, but even higher-scoring game this time around.

This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Western Carolina/Citadel.

The set-up: Toledo is 16-4 and Ball State is just 6-9. Outright win? I'm not predicting that, but I do definitely think the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Toledo has won five straight, including a 15 point victory over Akron last time out. Winning, especially at the College level, can lead to complacency. 

The pick: Ball State won't be lacking for motivation here, as it's facing the top team in the league on its own floor, while it will also be trying to erase a four-game slide. Last time out the Cardinals fell by 20 points to the Bulls. Toledo has hit a very "vanilla" part of its schedule, with NIU up next and I think it finally comes out a bit flat here. I'll point out as well that Ball State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after scoring 60 or less points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. Grab the points.

This is a 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State. 

The set-up: This is the first game of a two-game set between the teams and I expect it to be a lot more competitive than what this spread is leading us to believe. Cal Poly won't be lacking for motivation off a 64-51 loss to CSU Northridge on Saturday. Hawaii split its last series with UC Irvine, winning 62-61 in OT in the last one and I think it comes out a bit flat to start this one after that emotional revenge victory. Overall the Mustangs average 60 PPG, while allowing 69.9. Hawaii averages 71.1 and concedes 66.2. 

The pick: Cal Poly's offense has been an issue all year, but it comes in as the hungrier team here. These defenses are very similar and I think the visitors will keep it competitive until the final moments. I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, but as stated before, this one definitely looks like it'll come right down to the wire. Grab the points!

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Cal Poly Slo.

The set-up: Marshall's won two in a row, but I think it'll stumble here vs. a hungry ODU side which is rested, as it's had its last four games postponed due to COVID issues. Previous to winning two in a row, Marshall had dropped two in a row. Overall the Herd is 3-3 in Conference play. Previous to its break, ODU had won four of five. ODU enters are 4-2 in league play. 

The pick: The Monacrchs only allow 68.5 PPG this season, and despite being 5-2 on the road this year, I think that Marshall will have a difficult time replicating its last two offensive performances. Not only is ODU a perfect 5-0 SU at home this year, but it's also 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. I'm banking on ODU to quickly shake off any rust and while the outright win is clearly not out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* CONFERENCE USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Old Dominion.