The set-up: LSU won’t have coach Will Wade on the sidelines Friday because he’s suspended, but I still think the Tigers can take care of a tired Gators team, which enters off a hard-fought 66-50 win over Arkansas just last night. Note though that Florida is a terrible 1-8 vs. AP Top 25 teams. And guess what? The Gators one win was an upset 82-77 OT victory over a then No. 13 LSU. It’s payback time! The Tigers come in in on top form as well, winning the SEC regular-season title outright with an 80-59 win over Vanderbilt on Saturday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LSU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. above .500 teams and 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS win, while Florida is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following a SU win. I like LSU to respond with a resounding victory here. Lay the points.

10* play on LSU

The set-up: Alabama needs a victory to keep its NCAA Tourney hopes alive, but even that big motivational factor won’t be enough here in my opinion. Alabama is the No. 10 seed and it finished 8-10 in league play, losing six of eight down the stretch. Over a three-game losing streak to end the year it’s averaged 15.7 turnovers. Ole Miss also needs a victory here to cement is NCAA spot. Kermit Davis is in his first season as coach and he ended the regular season with a much needed 73-68 victory to snap a three-game slide. From a situational stand point, I absolutely feel that this one favors Ole Miss, as these two teams are clearly moving in opposite directions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ole Miss is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while Alabama is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. the conference and 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. above .500 teams. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: It’s a quick turn-around from day-to-day during the Confernece tournaments. Virginia Tech took advantage of a tired Miami team, which pulled out a victory the day before to advance. Now the Seminoles look to return the favor here in the third round of the ACC. FSU has a huge advantage here with the “double bye” and I believe it’ll be more than enough to turn the tide in favor of the Seminoles today. Note that FSU posted a 73-64 OT win over the Hokies at home ten days ago.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games, while VT is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. Play on the Seminoles.

10* play

The set-up: These are two terrible teams, but I think Georgia is worse. The Bulldogs finished 11-20. Georgia lost its final two games of the regular season, posting a combined 85 points of offense on 25.8 percent shooting in those defeats. The “revenge factor” is always something I take into account, but sometimes it can be an over-rated angle. And that’s the case here I think. Missouri destroyed Georgia 64-39 in Athens just last week and I’m expecting a similar sort of beatdown here once it’s all said and done.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight vs. sub .500 teams and 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 neural site affairs, while Georgia is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 50 points or less in its previous contest and only 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: It’s round two of the ACC. Miami comes in off a high-scoring victory over Wake Forest just last night. The Hurricanes are better on the defensive end of things and the last thing they’ll want to do is to turn this one into a “track meet” with the rested Hokies. VT enters after an opening bye by finishing 12-6 in conference play. VT beat Miami Florida 84-70 to finish the regular season just last week, but all signs point to a much more defensive affair this time around in my opinion. From a situational stand point, everything definitely points to the lower number as the correct call. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Miami has seen the total go “under” the number in 12 of its last 16 neural site games, while VT has seen the total dip “under” in seven of its last ten after scoring 80 points or more in its previous outing. This number is high, play the “under.”

6* play

The set-up: This is a big game, as many believe the winner will then punch its ticket to the Big Dance. Both teams went 9-9 in conference play. The victor of this one will also go on to face Virginia in Thursday’s ACC semi-final. Clemson comes in having won two straight and four of its last five, but NC State has to be feeling confident here after taking the first game vs. the Tigers 69-67 at home back on January 26th. NC State destroyed Boston College 73-47 last weekend, posting its best defensive performance of the entire season. I think the Tigers are in trouble here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is just 1-3 ATS in all neutral court games this year and only 5-8 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest, while the Wolfpack are 2-0 ATS in all neutral court games this year and 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog. Play on NC State.

9* play

The set-up: These teams enter off poor campaigns. The Demon Deacons were 4-14 in ACC action, while Miami finished 5-13 in conference play. Last year both teams were ousted from the Conference tournament after the first game, but this season one of the two will survive to see the next round. These teams played two games and they split those, with one going “over” and the other going “under.” But during Wake Forest’s three-game losing skid, its failed to score 60 points, most recently falling 65-57 to FSU. The Hurricanes closed out the regular season with an 84-70 loss to VT. Two inconsistent, yet hungry teams collide and I believe that this will help in resulting in a tighter, lower-scoring defensive battle. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Wake Forest has seen the total go “under” the number in 13 of its last 19 as an underdog, while Miami Florida has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 13 as a neutral court favorite or pick. This number is high, play the “under.”

10* play

The set-up: Saint Mary’s is on the bubble after its five game win streak ended in a season finale loss to Gonzaga. The Gaels are going to have to make it to the WCC finals if they want to make it to the big dance. The Toreros have been playing terrific, coming in having won four straight, but this has been a difficult matchup for them. In fact, the Gaels took both regular season meetings easily. I’m throwing the “double revenge” factor out the window here. This one doesn’t mean more to the Toreros than it does to the Gaels. San Diego has been playing well, but I think the “better” team comes out on top again. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SD is just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 after having won three of its last four games, while St. Mary’s is 5-1 ATS in its last six after a loss by ten points or more. With a chance to meet the Bulldogs in the final and to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament, I look for the high-powered Gaels to once again blow the doors off the Toreros. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: This is a big game. The Liberty Flames take on the Lipscomb Bison for the Atlantic Sun Championship in this one. Lipscomb enters off a 78-55 win over New Jersey Tech, getting 22 points, nine boards and five assists from Garrison Matthews. Liberty comes to the Championship game off a 71-63 victory over North Florida. Scottie James provied 24 loins and nine boards. 

The pick: But the numbers support the Flames today, who are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning SU records, while Lipcomb is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a blowout win of ten points or more vs. a conference opponent. I think these teams are more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Therefore, grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Houston comes in off a 90-79 home win over SMU, while Cincinnati looks to close the regular season on a winning note after dropping a a tight 58-55 game at UCF in its latest action. Note that Cincinnati plays with revenge here as well after falling 65-58 at Houston in the first meeting. The Bearcats are also in a “must win” situation here to earn a tie for top spot in the AAC with Houston. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for Cincinnati in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Houston is just 2-4 ATS this year after scoring 80 or more points in its previous outing, while the Bearcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Lay the short points.

8* Play

The set-up: This is a big game, as it’ll play a part in deciding first place in the conference standings. Both teams are expected to make deep runs into the NCAA tournament and each has a legitimate shot at winning the conference tournament despite the result of tonight’s contest. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up great as a higher-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Michigan has seen the total go “over” the number in 12 of its last 18 as an underdog, while MSU has seen the totla go “over” in seven of its last ten home games when the total was set between 134 and 140. This number is low, play the “over.”

9* play

The set-up: This is a big game. The Blue Devils will be without Zion Williamson in this one, but they’re out for revenge after falling to UNC earlier in the year. UNC won’t be rolling over obviously as it comes in on top form having won six straight. Despite what happens in this one, each is expected to make a deep run in the upcoming tournament and both have a legitimate shot at winning the upcoming conference tournament. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up great as a classic high-scoring “shootout.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Duke has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last ten as an underdog (including in both games this season,) while UNC has seen the total soar “over” in three of its last four as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: These teams are tied for third at 8-9 with five other schools. This is a big game, as the winner could potentially earn the No. 3 seed in the upcoming tournament. I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor here. The Red Storm have zero momentum after losing three of their last four, most recently getting smoked 92-83 at DePaul Sunday. St. John’s is 3-5 on the road in conference play, allowing 79 PPG. St. John’s has lost seven straight in this series and it’s just 1-4 at Xavier since the Big East reconfigured in 2013. Xavier is on the bubble as well and it’ll be out to bounce back on Seniors Night after a 71-66 loss at Butler on Tuesday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Xavier is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home game svs. a team with an above .500 road record, while St. John’s is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog of six points or less or pick. Lay the short points.

9* play

The set-up: Baylor is still basically “on the bubble,” so a signature road victory in its season finale would seal the deal. The Bears currently site one game behind Kansas in the conference standings, so to say this is a big game would be an understatement. Baylor comes in focused after back-to-back losses. The Bears average 113.9 points per 100 possessions and they allow 110.1 points per 100 possessions. However note that Byalor has given up just 97.9 points per 100 possessions during league play. Kansas broke a two-game slide with an 81-68 win over Oklahoma. The Jayhawks average 113.7 points per 100 possessions and they allow 92.8 in league play. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Kansas is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with a winning SU record, while Baylor is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 following a SU loss and 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine on the road. Grab the points.

8* play

The set-up: The Vols come in off a 71-54 home win over Mississippi State to move to 15 in league play, while the Tigers are 10-7 after beating Alabama on the road. The Vols are in a fight with LSU for the top spot, but regardless they’re still projected to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA. The Vols look to keep the foot on the gas after three straight wins. Overall Tennessee averages 82.4 PPG and it allows 67.1. Auburn has won three straight as well. The Tigers average 79.9 PPG and they allow 68.1. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though but Tennessee is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 as a road favorite or pick, while Auburn is 0-3 ATS as a home dog or pick and 0-5 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest. Tennessee is the correct call here, lay the short points.

9* play

The set-up: The Hawks had won two straight before a tight 86-85 OT loss at Rhode Island on Tuesday. The Hawks though will look to bounce back here against VCU, which has already earned the outright A-10 championship and which has won 11 in a row. St. Joe’s has struggled at VCU over the years (0-3), but they won their last road game 66-52 at Fordham on February 27th. Even if VCU stumbles in the conference tournament, they’ve still done enough to win an at large bid for the NCAA tourney. With everything already wrapped up nicely, I think the home side has a small mental letdown here. Outright victory? Probably not, but the stage is set for a competitive affair. 

The pick: Additionally note that St. Joseph’s is 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss by three points or less, while VCU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Louisiana Monroe comes in off a deflating 97-91 home loss to Coastal Carolina on Saturday. Arkansas State is looking to rebound as well after an 81-70 road loss to Georgia Southern over the weekend. But the Red Wolves have to be feeling confident here, because they already took the first meeting between the teams 85-75 on the road on January 6th. Louisiana Monroe has alternated wins and losses over its last six. Overall the Warhawks average 78.5 PPG and they allow 75.2. Arkansas State still has a chance to move up out of ninth place and there’s no better opportunity than this one. The Red Wolves average 73.5 PPG and they allow 77.2. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Louisiana Monroe is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road favorite of six points or less or pick, while Arkansas State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a war until the end between these two hungry teams.

9* play

The set-up: Both teams come in highly motivated. I think this sense of intensity and competition will lead to a lower-scoring affair. UL Lafayette is out to break a three-way tie for fifth place in the Sun Belt, while Little Rock is out to avenge a loss in the reverse fixture. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up well as more of a lower-scoring defensive war.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but UL Lafayette has seen the total go “under” the number in both games it’s played in this season off a home loss vs. a conference rival, while Little Rock has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last ten as a home underdog of six points or less or pick. This number is high, play the “under.”

9* play

The set-up: UCF plays its first game as a ranked team in eight years. The No. 20 ranked Bearcats come to town in control of their own destiny. If they win tonight and then again at home vs. Houston, they’ll take the AAC title and the No. 1 seed on the tourney. The Bearcats are playing well on both ends of the floor and enter on a five-game win streak. UCF comes in off a big time 69-64 win over No. 8 Houston on Saturday and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here and continue its recent form. UCF has won three straight since its loss at Cincinnati and now it’s time for a little revenge.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams with an above .600 road record, while Cincinnati just 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. Look for the Knights to exact that revenge.

10* play

The set-up: The Bonnies won’t be rolling over here. St. Bonaventure enters having won six straight. Davidson has alternated wins and losses over its last five and it enters off a win over Fordham most recently. The Bonnies remain in contention for a double-bye in the conference tournament. Note that St. Bonaventure has held seven of its last eight opponents to 60 points or less. Davidson won’t want to have a letdown here either, but I think that the stage is set for a very competitive battle between the home side and the surging visitors. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bonnies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a road underdog or pick, while Davidson is just 2-4 ATS this season off a home win against a conference rival. Grab the points and expect a war.

10* play

The set-up: Two teams hungry for wins collide and I believe that points will be plentiful. UNC is tied with Virginia for the conference lead. The Tar Heels enter on top form having won five straight. Overall UNC averages 87.1 points, while allowing 73.3. The Eagle are in tenth spot in the conference, but they won’t be going down without a fight today as they look to pull off the upset and to play spoiler. Overall the Eagles average 71.9 PPG and they allow 72.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but UNC has seen the total go “over” the number in four of five this season off a no-cover where the team won SU as a favorite, while BC has seen the total soar “over” in nine of its last 12 as an underdog. This number is low, play the “over.” 

9* play

The set-up: The Hokies come in off a confidence building 77-72 home win over Duke to improve to 11-6 in league action, while the Seminoles moved to 11-5 within the ACC after their 78-73 home win over NC State. VT enters on top form, but I think it’ll have a difficult time in this difficult road venue. Overall the Hokies average 74.5 PPG and they allow 61.5. FSU has won ten of its last 11 league games. The Seminoles are 14-1 SU at home this year. In those contests they’ve averaged 79.5 PPG and allowed 67.9.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 7-2 ATS in the last ten home games in this series, while VT is still only 3-7 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. I look for these strong trends to continue. Lay the points.

9* play

The set-up: Xavier comes in off an 84-73 road win over St. John’s, but I think it’ll struggle to duplicate that same energy for a second straight contest away from friendly confines. Butler won’t be lacking for motivation here either. The Bulldogs come in off a humbling 75-54 loss to Villanova and will be eager to atone for that mess. They also play with revenge here after falling 70-69 on the road in the first matchup this season. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Xavier is still only 4-6 ATS on the road this year. Butler on the other hand is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as home favorite in the 2.5 to 6 points range. Everything points to a blowout. Lay the points.

9* play

The set-up: Northern Arizona comes in hungry after back-to-back losses and defeats in six of its last eight. Most recently UNA lost 84-73 to Montana State. Northern Arizona is led by Jonahtan Andre weigh 13.4 points and 8.4 boards per game. overall the Lumberjacks average 73.2 PPG. Montana enters off a 70-54 win over Southern Utah. Montana averages 77.3 PPG. 

The pick: Montana though is a terrible 3-8 ATS in conference home games. The Lumberjacks play with revenge here as well after the Grizzlies took the first meeting on the road. I’m not calling for the outright, but all signs point to a closer battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

8* play

The set-up: The Cavs are an amazing team and they are atop the ACC standing with two games remaining. Syracuse is 10-6 in league play and I expect it to keep this one competitive until the final moments. The Orange have pretty much secured a spot in the big dance because of their recent form, but they clearly won’t be taking the foot off the gas at this point. The Cavs most recently beat Pittsburgh 73-49. Overall the Cavs average 121.8 points per 100 possessions and limit teams to just 85.9 points per 100 possessions. Syracuse averages 102.1 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 92.7 per 100 possessions. 

The pick: The Cavs have been money in the bank for bettors this year, dominating in almost every single ATS statistical category there is. That’s why it’s important to note that Virginia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two straight covers as a double digit favorite. As mentioned off the top, I don’t expect the Orange to simply roll over (note that they’re a money-making 5-1 ATS in their last five after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games.) Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Cal had lost 16 in a row before upsetting Washington Thursday and now the Golden Bears look to make it tow in a row. A date vs. WSU, who was blowout out by Stanford is just what the doctor ordered for Cal. The Golden Bears looked great in the win over the Huskies, out-rebounding Washington 29-26 and committing only 11 turnovers vs. one of the conference’s top defensive units. Not surprisingly, Cal plays with revenge here as well after falling 82-59 in WSU last month. The undermanned Cougars’ 98-50 loss to the Cardinal is a sign of things to come for WSU down the stretch in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WSU is just 3-6 ATS on the road this year, while Cal is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 off a win vs. a conference rival. Look for the Bears to build momentum at the end of the season and to avenge the earlier loss. 

9* play

The set-up: To say this is a big game would be a big understatement. These teams are tied for first place (along with LSU as well) in the SEC right now. Kentucky comes in off a 70-66 win over Arkansas, while Tennessee scored the 73-71 road win over Ole Miss. The home side plays with revenge here though after falling 83-69 in the reverse fixture on February 16th. From an overall situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as more of a high-scoring shootout, rather than a slower-paced defensive oriented “chess match.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Kentucky has seen the total go over the number in five of its last seven as a road underdog or pick, while Tennessee has seen the total go over in three of its last four revenging a loss vs. an opponent that scored 85 or more points. This number is low, play the “over.” 

9* play

The set-up: The Terriers are 25-4. Wofford hasn’t lost a game since mid December. I think the mighty visiting side gets classically caught looking past its lowly opponent today. The Samford Bulldogs are 16-14. Samford had won three straight, but the Bulldogs come into this one motivated after three straight losses. 

The pick: The last time these teams matched up, Samford gave the Terriers all they could handle in a 107-106 Wofford victory. The conditions are right for another competitive affair in my opinion, so grab the points.

9* play

The set-up: Both teams are hungry for a victory and each will be pushing the pace. The Tigers are tied atop the SEC standing with Kentucky and Tennessee (who play each other today), while Alabama comes in having won two straight. LSU averages 82.1 PPG and it allows 73.4. The Tide though won’t be going down without a fight here either, as this one arguably means even more to them. Alabama is on the bubble with a 17-11 record this year. The Tide average 73.3 PPG and they allow 71.5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but LSU has seen the total go “over” the number in five of eight on the road already this year and in ten of 15 vs. the conference, while Alabama has seen the total go “over” in nine of 13 at home. This number is low, play the “over.”

9* play

The set-up: It’s payback time. The Hoosiers won the reverse fixture 79-75 earlier in the year and I think that the visitors avenge that setback. The Spartans come to town off a 77-70 road win over Michigan to improve to 14-3 in league play. Indiana is just 5-12 in the Big Ten, but it looks poised for a predictable letdown here in my opinion after its 75-73 OT win at home over Wisconsin at home last time out. Overall MSU averages 80.1 PPG and it allows 65.8. The Hoosiers average 70.4 PPG and they concede 67.2. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Indiana is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, while MSU is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 following a SU win and 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Lay the points, expect a beatdown.

9* play

The set-up: The Rams come in off an 80-53 home win over George Washington on Tuesday, while Dayton posted a 72-48 road win over Massachusetts. The Rams play with revenge here though after falling 77-48 at home in the first matchup on February 9th. The Rams are currently in ninth spot, but clearly they haven’t completely given up quite yet as evidenced their last performance. The Rams would also love to play spoiler here as Dayton is currently tied for second, two games behind with three games remaining. The pressure is on and I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly opponent. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Rhode Island 4-1 ATS in its last five revenging a loss where the opponent scored 75 or more points in, while Dayton is just 6-11 ATS as the favorite this year. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: At 15-13, Xavier is on the outside looking in at the NCAA Tournament. The Musketeers need to string some wins together at this point. St. John’s is 20-8 overall and it’s locked into a No. 8 seed currently. From a situational stand point, there’s no question in my mind that this one “means” a lot more to the visiting side tonight. However note that Xavier enters on top form, having won four straight, most recently a 66-54 victory over Villanova as a 5.5 point underdog. The Red Storm can’t leave anything to chance either as they’ll look to avoid slipping under the .500 mark in conference play, but I think they’ll have their hands full with this “under the radar” visiting side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Xavier is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win, while St. John’s is only 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory. Grab the points and expect this one to come right down to the wire.

10* play

The set-up: I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Villanova returns home after three straight road losses. The Wildcats are now 1.5 games behind the Golden Eagles for the conference lead. Marquette has won four in a row, but I think the stage is now set for the Golden Eagles to have a letdown. Villanova has been unbeatable at home so far, winning 13 straight and I like that trend of success to continue. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marquette just 2-3 ATS as an underdog this season, while Villanova is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 vs. the conference and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 at home. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright victory, I do think that the table is set for a much more competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. Syracuse couldn’t capitalize at home vs. a short-handed Duke team last time out, falling to 9-5 in league play after the 75-65 setback. Overall the Orange average 108.4 points per 100 possessions and they allow 92.4 points per 100 possessions. The Tar Heels average 119.2 points per 100 possessions and they allow 96.6 points per 100 possessions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Syracuse is 5-2 ATS on the road this year and 9-5 ATS vs. conference opponents, while UNC is still only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12.5 points range. I think the Tar Heels finally have a letdown here, as they leave the back door wide open down the stretch. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Oklahoma needs some victories to ensure a spot in the Tournament. The Sooners come in off a quality 69-67 win at home over Texas. The visitors play with “revenge” today after a tight 75-74 setback to Iowa State on February 4th. Since the victor Iowa State has been in a “free fall,” having dropped three games behind front runner K-State. 

The pick: Oklahoma is also 6-0-3 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams with an above .600 home record, while Iowa State is 0-5 ATS in its last five as a favorite. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one coming down to the wire. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The winner of this game will likely be crowned the conference regular season champion. I’m expecting this one to come right down to the wire and will therefore recommend that you grab as many points as you can. These teams are very evenly matched, as evidenced by this spread. It wouldn’t be hard to write a convincing argument for either of these teams, but in a game where the talent level and team numbers are so similar, I’ve always tended to grab the points in a situation like that. And that’s the situation we find ourselves in here for sure.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but MSU is 7-3 ATS on the road and a perfect 5-0 ATS this season after two or more consecutive SU home victories, while Michigan is just 3-5 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in two or more straight games. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: While I’m not going to call for the outright victory, I do think that the hungry and revenge minded Bulls will keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. SFU plays with revenge after falling 69-60 on the road on January 19th to the Cougars. Both teams comes in off victories, but at 7-6, the Bulls are still looking to improve their standings. Houston comes in complacent after ten straight wins and I believe it leaves the back door open.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but USF is 6-1 ATS on the road this year and 5-1 ATS as a road dog or pick, while Houston is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 off a road win by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: In a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these evenly matched sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Notre Dame won’t be lacking for motivation here as its lost eight of its last ten. The Hokies’ two game win streak was snapped last time out in a setback to Virginia on Monday. And with a game vs. No. 1 Duke up next, not only does this set up as a “letdown” spot, but also a “look ahead.” The Irish also play with the added incentive of “revenge” after falling 81-66 at VT on January 1st. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but VT is just 4-9 ATS vs. the conference, while ND is 7-3 ATS in its last ten revering a loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. Grab the points.

9* play

The set-up: UNC enters off a big upset win over Duke, which has propelled it into a three-way tie for first place in the ACC. FSU is 9-4 in league play and in the fourth spot. I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Tar Heels though after their win over the Blue Devils. The Seminoles come in on top form as well, having won eight straight after an impressive 77-64 road win over Clemson on Tuesday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 3-1 ATS already this season as an underdog, while UNC is just 2-5 ATS this year after scoring 80 points or more in two straight games. I’m expecting a “nail biter.” Grab the points.

9* play

The set-up: Two heavyweights in the SEC collide on Saturday afternoon and I believe that points will be at a premium. The Vols posted a 58-46 home win over Vandy in their latest action, while the Tigers come in hungry after falling 82-77 at home to Florida. The home side plays with revenge as well after falling 84-61 at Tennessee last year. This is a big game, as Tennessee holds just a one game lead over LSU for the conference lead. Tennessee is 6-1 on the road and it averages 83.7 PPG and it allows 67.4. LSU is 12-2 at home and it averages 82.7 PPG and it allows 73.8.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Vols have seen the total go “under” in four of their last five as a road dog of three points or less or pick, while LSU has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 15 after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

9* play

The set-up: Davidson comes in off a crushing 74-73 home loss to Dayton. The Wildcats are now firmly on the bubble as far as their Tournament hopes are concerned, but the only thing they can control is their performance tonight: “We put ourselves in that position,” said Davidson guard Jon Axel Gudmundsson. “We didn’t come out to fight.” Rhode Island is 12-13 overall and 5-8 in league play. The Rams would love to play spoiler here, but I just don’t see it happening. Rhode Island has zero momentum after four straight losses and I think the Rams are going to be outclassed severely here as well from this angry Davidson side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Davidson is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss and 7-3 ATS In its last ten as a road fav in the +0.5 to +6.5 points range, while Rhode Island is just 7-22 ATS in its last 29 after scoring 50 or fewer points in its previous game and 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: SIU Edwardsville Cougars enter off a 73-69 loss to Tennessee-Martin last time out. The Cougars are struggling down the stretch having lost four straight and I don’t see that trend of futility ending tonight. The Cougars allow over 80 PPG on average to their opponents. Tennessee State Tigers look to take advantage and to bounce back from an 84-65 loss to Jacksonville State on Saturday. The Tigers won’t be lacking for motivation here either as they enter having lost three straight. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but the Cougars are just 3-9 ATS on the road this year and only 5-9 ATS following a conference game, while the Tigers are already 4-1 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU losses. I’m banking on the home floor advantage being the difference. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Louisville comes in content after its 56-55 home win over Clemson, while the Orange are out to atone for a 73-58 loss to NC Stateon the road in their most recent action. The Cards’ defense was fantastic in the win over the Tigers, but the offense was horrible, shooting just 35.2 percent from the floor, including only 31.6 percent from range. The Cardinals average 77.4 PPG and they allow 68. The Orange average 70 PPG and they allow 64.3. The Orange are in sixth spot right now in the ACC standings, so would love to move up and get the “double bye” to open the conference tourney. This one “means” more to the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Louisville is just 13-19 ATS in its last 32 off a loss win by three points or less over a conference rival, while Syracuse is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 off a loss by ten points or more to a conference rival (including 3-0 ATS this year.) All signs point to a rout, play on the Orange.

10* play

The set-up: While the outright win isn’t out of the question, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. FSU most recently beat Georgia Tech on Saturday, while Clemson enters with zero momentum after back-to=-back losses to Miami and Louisville. FSU has won four straight at home, but it’s also won three straight away from friendly confines. FSU’s current win streak started with a 77-68 win at home over Clemson on January 22nd and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. After back-to-back one point losses, things aren’t going to get any easier for the reeling Tigers. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. teams with a winning home record and 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU win, while Clemson is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games following back-to-back close losses of 3-points or less. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: I think George Mason comes in flat footed after its tough 80-75 OT win over UMass on Wednesday. The Bonnies though are ready to build off their convincing 76-51 road win over Saint Joseph’s on Tuesday. Note that the Bonnies also play with revenge here after falling 68-53 at George Mason on the first matchup this year back on January 6th. From a “situational” stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but George Mason just 1-4 ATS this year off two straight victories vs. conference rivals, while St. Bonaventure is 3-1 ATS in its last four revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bonnies.

10* play

The set-up: Tennessee got the better of South Carolina 85-73 at home on Wednesday, while Kentucky pulled away for a 73-71 win at home over LSU on Tuesday. Tennessee is 23-1 this year and ranked No. 1 in the country. Kentucky is 20-4 and it’s ranked No. 5. But for me this game comes down to “revenge.” Kentucky got the better of the Vols 77-72 in the SEC Tournament Title game back on March 11th 2018. With a chance to avenge that setback, I think the visitors “come to play” tonight. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Wildcats are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 following a SU loss, while Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Clearly the outright win isn’t out of the question, but in the end I’ll recommend to grab the points.

9* play

The set-up: Florida State will be pushing the pace as it looks to extend its win streak to seven games this afternoon. The Yellow Jackets will be desperate here and they’ll have to match pace with the visitors as they look to pull off the upset and snap a six-game losing streak at the same time. In my opinion, this one sets up as more of a “run and gun shootout,” than a slower-paced defensive affair where each side sets up a half four offense. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but FSU has seen the total go “over” the number in six of its last nine off three straight victories vs. conference rivals, while GT has seen the total go “over” in four of its last five after two or more straight losses on the road. This number is low, play the “over.”

9* play

The set-up: Southern Illinois comes in off a deflating 72-69 home loss to Drake on Tuesday, while Indiana State enters off a confidence building 87-82 OT road victory over Valparaiso on Wednesday. These teams are moving in opposite directions right now and I think that trend carries over. Also note that Indiana State plays with revenge here after it fell 88-73 on the road in the first match-up back on January 30th. From a “situational” stand point, this one sets up fantastically for Indiana State in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Southern Illinois is just 6-7 ATS this season following a conference game, while Indiana State is 4-2 ATS as a favorite this season and 7-3 ATS in its last ten revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. Lay the short points.

9* play

The set-up: Oklahoma enters off a 59-53 road loss to Baylor and I think it’s primed for another letdown here. TCU comes in focused after a tough 82-77 OT loss at home to No. 14 Kansas in its latest action. Note that this is a “revenge” game as well for the Horned Frogs, as the Sooners have won three straight in this series, including a 76-74 victory in the first matchup at home back in mid January. There’s no question that from a “situational” stand point, that this one sets up beautifully for the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but TCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 at home overall, while Oklahoma is just 1-4-2 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Lay the points, this one has blowout written all over it.

10* play

The set-up: Both teams are red hot, but I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Buffalo enters at 21-3 and on two straight victories, while Toledo is 20-4 and in the midst of a five-game win skein. This however is a “revenge” game for Toledo after it was smoked 110-80 at Buffalo back on January 8th. The Rockets have played exceptionally since that setback and with a chance to avenge that pathetic effort, I do indeed expect the home side to step up and answer the call. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up well for the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Toledo is 7-2 ATS In its last nine at home, while Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Murray State comes in with plenty of momentum having won three straight, nost recently dispatching the SIU Edwardsville Cougars 86-55 on Saturday. Overall Murray State shot 52.9 percent from the floor and it also won the rebounding battle by 18-11. Ja Morant led the way in the win with 20 points, five boards, six assists, a block and a steal. Overall Murray State averages 82.7 PPG, while allowing 67.1. Austin Peay has won four straight, most recently holding on for a 94-86 victory over Eastern Illinois on Saturday. The Governors average 82.7 PPG, and they allow 71.3. 

The pick: Take it for what will though, but Murray State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning home records and I think the high-scoring Racers will improve on that trend and take advantage of an Austin Peay defense which ranks 181st in the country. Play on the visitors.

10* Play

The set-up: The home side is looking to bounce back after falling to Youngstown State in its latest action. Oakland started the season slow, but it’s looked better over the last month. The Golden Grizzlies though are also looking to break a two game slide. Overall Oakland averages 76.3 PPG and it allows 77.6. Despite a loss in their last game though, the Phoenix are aiming for a third victory in four outings tonight. The Phoenix average 83.4 PPG, and they allow 82.8. 

The pick: Normally these are two higher-scoring teams that don’t put a lot of credit on the defensive side of things, but each enters “hungry” and I think this competitiveness lends itself to more of a defensive affair finally. And take it for what you will as well, but Oakland has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 14 on the road, while Green Bay has seen the total dip “under” in four of its last five as a home favorite of three points or less or pick. This number is high, play the “under.”

8* play

The set-up: I think the 19-4 Belmont Bruins get caught looking past the lowly Tennessee State Tigers. The Bruins have won seven straight. Tennessee State though won’t be lacking for motivation today after starting 8-16. But Tennessee State has looked better over the last month, as despite losing to Eastern Kentucky in a tight game last time out, it had won its three previous. I think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing the Tennessee State improvement. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Belmont is still only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 80 or more points in a win over a conference rival, while Tennessee State is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home underdog or pick. Grab all the points.

8* play

The set-up: I think the 23-1 Houston Cougars get caught looking past the 13-11 UConn Huskies. The Cougars have won eight straight and come in a tiny bit complacent in my opinion. The Huskies on the other hand enter razor focused after consecutive setbacks to Memphis and Temple. Clearly on paper, Houston is the better team, but I think the overall situation favors the hungry dog. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is still only 11-12 ATS in its last 23 after successfully covering the spread in two or more straight games. UConn on the other hand has responded well in this spot by going 4-1 ATS in its last five after two or more straight road losses. Grab the points and expect a battle. 

8* play

The set-up: Purdue comes to town at 10-2 and in second place in the Conference. Maryland isn’t far behind though at 9-4 and it’ll be out for a little revenge here after it fell in a narrow 62-60 defeat to the Boilermakers in early December. Would anyone fault Purdue having a letdown here after eight straight victories, including one of the “rocking chair” variety in last Saturday’s 81-62 home win over Nebraska? Purdue averages 78.8 PPG and it allows 68.4. The Terps beat Nebraska 60-45 in their most recent action. The Terps lead the league in rebounding margin at +10.4, and they easily out rebounded the Huskers 53-38. From a situational stand point, i think this one definitely sets up great for the home side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Purdue is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road dog or pick, while Maryland is already 3-1 ATS this season in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Jayhawks may have beaten lowly Oklahoma State last time out, but Kansas has still lost four of seven, thanks in large part to a heavily depleted roster. The Jayhawks started four freshman for just the second time in head coach Bill Self’s 16 year tenure in the win over the Cowboys and I think an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent here, facing a Horned Frogs squad coming off one of its biggest victories in over ten years. TCU comes in off two straight victories, including a 92-83 win at Iowa State last time out, a victory over a ranked team on the road for the first time in 21 years! 

The pick: Clearly the momentum is in favor of the surging Frogs, but I’ll point out as well that they’re 9-2 ATS in their last 11 at home and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a victory, while Kansas is still 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road. This one has “blowout” written all over it, play on TCU.

10* play

The set-up: Both teams have struggled this year. Both teams comes in on losing streaks. The Yellow Jackets are the better defensive club, but not by much. Georgia Tech’s defense though looked pretty average in its 65-42 loss to Clemson last time out. Notre Dame beat Boston College, but then it lost at Miami, managing just 47 points in the setback. The Hurricanes aren’t the best defensively this year, but playing in their own building is never an easy task. A little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for the Irish though in my opinion. 

The pick: As note that ND is 4-2 ATS in its last six home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to six points range and 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing two consecutive road games as an underdog, while GT is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range. Lay the point, expect a blowout.

10* play

The set-up: Marshall comes in having lost five of six. The Owls have been terrible of late as well, going just 2-6 in their last eight. Rice will be “gassed” here as well after falling in double OT to WKU on Thursday. The Herd looked horrible in their most recent 78-51 loss at UNT on Thursday. From a situational stand point, this one absolutely sets up as a lower-scoring battle in my opinion between these two hungry/desperate teams. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marshall has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five after two or more consecutive losses, while Rice has seen the total go “under” in both games it’s played in this season off a home loss against a conference rival. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

10* play

The set-up: Both teams come in hot. Duke has won six straight and it already beat Virginia earlier in the year. Since losing that game to Duke, Virginia has won four straight. In a contest which will once again come down to the wire, I’m going to grab the points. 

The pick: Note that Duke is 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 road games vs. teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Virginia is still dealing with injury issues. I think Duke can smell the blood in the water and I look for the visiting side to go in for the kill. Grab the points.

8* play

The set-up: Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The Cardinals look poised for a letdown after their very satisfying 72-64 road win over Virginia Tech. The Seminoles return him off a road victory over Syracuse. FSU won’t be taking anything for granted here after Louisville took two of three in the season series last year. The Cards average 78.8 PPG and they allow 68. The Seminoles though are 10-1 on their home floor and they average 77 points and allow 68.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Louisville is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off a road win vs. a conference rival, while FSU is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The Tigers are 4-5 in the ACC and they’ll be very hungry for a win here. VT had won three straight before falling 72-64 to Louisville last time out. The Hokies played just six players in the one with three starters playing 38 or more minutes. The Tigers come in “under the radar.” After losing five of six, Clemson has now three straight over Pitt, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech averages 76.7 PPG and it allows 60.8. Clemson averages 71 PPG and it allow 64.6.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Va Tech is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, while Clemson is 7-0 ATS in its last seven following a SU win of more than 20 points and 5-1 ATS in its last six in front of the home town crowd. Lay the short points and expect a blowout.

8* play

The set-up: Indiana enters off a big upset win over Michigan State over the weekend and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. Iowa also comes in off a big win, downing No. 5 ranked Michigan. I believe though that the Hawkeyes will come in complacent here in this difficult road venues. The Hoosiers don’t have that luxury though, as they lost their first seven league games this year. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up perfectly for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Iowa is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten when playing with five or six days rest and only 10-14 ATS in its last 24 following a home win by ten points or more, while Indiana is 23-14 ATS in its last 37 as a home favorite and 3-1 ATS already this season after a victory by six points or less. Lay the points, expect a rout!

10* play

The set-up: The Bears are 6-2. They look poised for a letdown here though after six straight wins in my opinion. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a ridiculous understatement, as Baylor has won six straight. The Longhorns are desperate though as they’ve lost three of their last four, including a tight 65-60 setback at Iowa State most recently. I think that from a “situational” stand point, this one sets up very well for the “hungry” home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baylor is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, while Texas is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 vs. good defensive tams which allow 64 points or less. Lay the points.

8* TEXAS

The set-up: I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Ole Miss is desperate here as it looks to break a four-game slide. Previous to their slide, the Rebels won 11 of 12. A date vs. the lowly Aggies is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though as A&M is just 1-5 in its last six overall. I don’t think the Ole Miss has hit the panic button yet though, as it’s faced some very stiff competition. I think that a little “home cooking” is the difference tonight. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ole Miss is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 at home and 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. teams with losing records, while A&M is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 following a double-digit home loss. Lay the points, expect a rout.

8* OLE MISS

The set-up: I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The Huskies come in complacent here in my opinion after going 3-1 in their last four, including a victory over ECU last time out. The Owls clearly the hungrier side, having lost three of their last five. Temple though did get back on the winning track by beating Tulane this past Friday and I look for the Owls to now build off that effort. The Huskies have been the beneficiary of a weak schedule of late, and I think they’ll predictably stumble here in the “step up” in competition and in this difficult road venue. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for Temple. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UConn is still just 3-4 ATS this year as an underdog and only 12-17 ATS in its last 29 on the road, while Temple is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite of six points or less or pick and 3-1 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.

8* TEMPLE

The set-up: Bowling Green dismantled WMU 79-48 at the Stroh Center back on January 19th and I think a similar final combined outcome is in the cards tonight as well. Bowling Green is rolling, going 11-1 in its last 12, it enters off its biggest win in a decade, pulling away for a victory over then No. 18 Buffalo last Friday. The Falcons know they can’t come in complacent here against a WMU team which is 0-8 in league play: 

“We don’t want to get to that place where we’re complacent and we think [winning] is just going to happen,” BG head coach Michael Huger noted. “You can’t play up or down to the opponent–you’ve got to play the same way every single time. It’s easier said than done. I can say it, but now we’ve got to go out and do it, and that’s the hard part.”

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is just 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 at home, while Bowling Green is 8-1 ATS in its last nine following a SU victory. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.

10* BOWLING GREEN

The set-up: The Ramblers have won five of their last six and I think they keep the momentum rolling here. Illinois State has won two in a row and four of its last five, but the Loyola Chicago has won nine of its last 12 on the road. Clearly these teams are very evenly matched, but the difference comes in the numbers.

The pick: Take it for what you will ,but Illinois State is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games in this series, while Loyola Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records, 19-8 ATS in its last 27 vs. the conference and 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 on the road. This one has blowout written all over it. Play on Loyola Chicago.

9* play

The set-up: The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 15-5 and the Ole Miss Rebels are 14-6. I can’t understate how important I think that the home floor advantage will be in this particular matchup. The Rebels upset Mississippi State 81-77 on the road on January 12th and I think an even bigger blowout is in the cards on their home floor. The Rebels are 4-3 in league play and the Bulldogs are 3-4. Mississippi State comes in off a deflating 83-79 road defeat to Alabama and I have a hard time seeing it mustering up the same energy in this difficult arena. The Bulldogs have regressed defensively as well since the start of conference play. Overall they’re allowing 96.6 points per 100 possessions, but since the start of league action that’s ballooned to 106.3 points per 100 possessions. Ole Miss has lost three straight and it comes in off a tough 90-86 road loss to Florida, but as stated off the top, I think a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Mississippi State is just just 3-5 ATS in its last eight revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Ole Miss is already 10-1 ATS this season as a favorite. Lay the short points.

10* play

The set-up: Seton Hall is 13-8 and 4-5 in Big East play. It’s currently right on the bubble for the Big Dance. Butler is 12-10 and 3-6 in league action. The Bulldogs have a lot of work to do to get back into the NCAA Tourney conversation. These are two “hungry” teams and as such, I believe that from a “situational” stand point, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout.

The pick: Recent history as well tells us that this number is a little low as well, as when these teams met on Jan. 9th, it was the Pirates who scored the 76-75 victory. Take it row what you will as well, but Seton Hall has seen the total go “over” the number in four of five already this season off a home no cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, while Butler has seen the total go “over” in nine of its last ten as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. As stated off the top, this number is a little low. Play the “over.”

8* play

The set-up: UCLA rolled to a 90-69 win over Arizona at home in its latest action and I look for it to carry that momentum over here as well. Washington State on the other hand enters off a poor 78-58 loss on the road to Oregon and I think it’ll have a hard time containing the up-tempo Bruins. UCLA won’t be taking anything for granted here either as the win over the Wildcats would in fact snap a three-game slide. The Bruins aerate 78.3 PPG, while allowing 75.3. WSU has lost three straight and nine of its last ten. The Cougars average 77.4 PPG and they allow 77.9. 

The pick: Note that UCLA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games following a SU/ATS win at home in which it scored 90 or more points in, while WSU is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with winning SU records. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Outright upset? Clearly it’s not out of the question. That said, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Both teams come in off wins. Toledo averages 80.6 PPG and it allows 69.2. Miami Ohio averages 73.4 PPG and it allows 70.2. 

The pick: From a trend based stand point though, there’s no question that this one favors the home side, as note that Toledo is a poor 2-4 ATS on the road already this year, while Miami Ohio is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as a home dog or pick. Grab the points.

10* MAC-ATTACK Miami Ohio.

The set-up: TCU comes to town off a 55-50 home win over Florida, while Texas Tech comes in off a hard-fought 67-64 home victory over Arkansas. TCU is 3-3 in league play, while the Red Raiders are 4-3. These are two defensive minded clubs and I believe that points will indeed be at a premium here. TCU’s offense was poor in the win over the Gators, as the team shot just 36 percent from the floor collectively. The Horned Frogs average 76.9 PPG and they allow just 66. The Red Raiders average only 70.0 PPG, but they make up for it on the either end of the floor, allowing just 56.4 PPG, ranked second in the country only behind Virginia. 

The pick: Note that TCU has seen the total go under in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600 and in five of its last six on the road, while TT has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven home games vs. teams with a losing road record. This number is high, play the “under.” 

10* play

The set-up: After its 68-59 road win over Cal on Thursday, I think Colorado will stumble in this difficult road venue. The Cardinal are looking to rebound as well after their 70-66 home loss to Utah on Thursday. To say this is a “revenge” game as well for Stanford would be a bit of an understatement, as Colorado has won nine straight in the series. But the Buffs had dropped two in a row and four of five before their latest victory and I believe an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent. The Buffs average 76.2 PPG and they allow 69. The Cardinal won’t be taking anything for granted here as they’ve lost five of their last seven. Overall Stanford averages 72.5 PPG and it allows 73.4. 

The pick: But note that Stanford is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a favorite and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a loss by six points or less. Colorado on the other hand is just 8-23 ATS in its last 31 on the road. This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the short points on the hungry and revenge minded home side.

8* play

The set-up: Two of the best in the country go head to head here and I’m expecting points to be plentiful. Kansas has won 16 of 19 to open the season. Overall the Jayhawks average 78.1 PPG, while allowing 70.2. Several players average double figures for the visitors, including Lagerald Vick with 15 points and 3.9 boards. Kentucky has won 15 of its first 18 games and it averages 80 PPG, while allowing 67.5. The Wildcats are loaded with talent as well, including Tyler Herro who averages 13.7 points and 4.3 boards per game. 

The pick: Note as well that Kansas has seen the total go “over” the number in nine of its last 11 non-conference games, while Kentucky has seen the total fly “over” in eight of its last ten after allowing 60 points or less in its previous outing. This number is low, play the “over.” 

8* play

The set-up: LSU has won 15 of 18, but I think it’ll have its hands full today vs. a Missouri team which enters off a loss to Arkansas. LSU has won eight straight and I think it comes in complacent. Overall LSU averages 83.1 PPG and it allows 71.9. Tremont Waters leads LSU with 14.2 points and 6.1 assists per night. Missouri averages 67.8 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other and by allowing just 65.6. Keep your eyes on the home side’s Jordan Geist, who leads the way with 13.3 points and 4.2 boards per game. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but LSU is just 8-13 ATS in its last 21 after a win by ten points or more, while Missouri is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home underdog of six points or less or pick. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a battle.

8* play

The set-up: Iowa State comes in hungry after its 80-76 setback at Kansas. Mississippi comes in off a loss as well, getting smoked 74-53 by Alabama. Previous to their latest loss though the Cyclones had won two in a row. Iowa State averages 78.5 PPG and it allows just 65.1. The Runnin Rebels are no slouches either, averaging 77.9 PPG and allowing 68.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per game, while Mississippi is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a home favorite of thre points or less or pick. The Cyclones have been playing more consistently of late and I believe that translates into a “W” here.

10* play

The set-up: Clearly with a spread like this, an outright upset wouldn’t be a complete shock. I’m not in fact calling for the outright upset, but I think this one will come down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. After seven straight wins, complacency sets in for the Bulldogs in my opinion. Note that this is an IMMEDIATE revenge game for the Bears as well! Brown had won six in a row before a loss to Yale last weekend. Suffice it to say, revenge is a dish best served cold. 

The pick: Yale won that game 70-67 and I expect another very competitive battle here as well. Additionally note that Brown is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. good offensive teams which average 77 plus points per contest, while Yale is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per game. Grab the points.

10* Brown

The set-up: Belmont is 13-4 after beating Tennessee State 92-74 this past weekend. Overall Belmont is averaging 86.3 PPG, while holding the opposition to 66. Dylan Windler had 25 points, six boards and four assists in the most recent victory. Murray State has won seven straight, most recently pulling away for an 82-72 victory over SIU Edwardsville. The Racers are averaging 84 PPG and they’re allowing just 66. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bruins are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records and only 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS victory, while the Racers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. teams with winning SU records and 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring 80 points or more in a SU victory in their last contest. Look for the home side to take advantage. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Ole Miss comes in off an 84-67 win over Arkansas in its latest action, but I think it’ll stumble here in this difficult road venue. Overall the Runnin Rebels average 79.4 PPG. The Tide come in as the “hungrier” team after their 71-68 loss to Tennessee. Alabama enters averaging 76 PPG. A date vs. the Rebels is just what the doctor ordered for the Tide to get back on track though as Mississippi has covered in just five of its last 17 trips to Tuscaloosa. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Tide are 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a tight SU loss of 3 points or less. I’m banking on home court playing a big part in the outcome of this one. Play on Alabama.

10* play

The set-up: The Jayhawks have to have a “short memory” here as they look to bounce back from a tough 65-64 defeat to Virginia over the weekend. The setback dropped Kansas into a four-way tie for the Big 12 lead. Iowa State is clearly no push over, but note that it’s won just one of its last 13 trips to Allen Fieldhouse. After a 72-59 win over Oklahoma State on Saturday, I think the Cyclones stumble in this difficult road venue. Kansas plays with revenge here as well after falling 77-60 in Iowa State back on January 5th. Note that the Cyclones have not swept the season series between the schools since 2001. 

The pick: Additionally note that Iowa State is 35-16-3 ATS in its last 54 following a SU loss, while Iowa State is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a road dog. The situation and the trends/numbers both point to a home side blowout. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. After their 76-55 road win over Portland to move back to .500 in league play (2-2), I believe the Toreros will suffer a predictable letdown here. The Gaels improved to 3-1 in conference action after an impressive home win over Santa Clara last time out. Overall San Diego averages 75.8 PPG, while allowing 67.7. Saint Mary’s is averaging 77.2 PPG, while allowing 65.6. The Gaels have quietly been playing a lot better with three straight wins and I believe they carry that momentum over here vs. this now complacent San Diego side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Mary’s is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while SD is 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory and 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU win. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

10* St Marys

The set-up: Virginia will look to build off its impressive 81-59 win over Virginia Tech last Tuesday. The Cavs were efficient 58.5 percent from the floor collectively. Virginia is 16-0 this year. Overall the Cavs allow just 51.7 PPG, ranked No. 1 in the country. The Blue Devils come in off an exhausting 95-91 OT loss to Syracuse in its latest action and I think it’ll be “dog tired” here after that marathon. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for a lower-scoring under. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though by Virginia has seen the total go “under” the number in its last eight as an underdog and in 19 of its last 26 on the road, while Duke has seen the total go “under” in 11 of 14 as a favorite this year and in seven of nine at home. This number is high, play the “under.”

10* Under

The set-up: The Tar Heels look poised for a letdown here after their 75-69 hoe win over Notre Dame in my opinion as they hit the road to face a Hurricanes side which posted a 76-65 home win over Wake in its latest action. The Tar Heels were blown out by Louisville in their pervious contest, but Luke Maye posted 14 points and ten boards to help UNC back into the winners circle. Note thought that Two of the Tar Heels four losses have come against ranked opponents. UNC comes in averaging 87.4 PPG, while allowing 73.2. Miami Florida was led by Chris Lykes in its latest win with 25 points. The Hurricanes are 7-2 at home. Overall they average 76.5 PPG, while allowing 70.1. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but UNC is still just 12-15 ATS in its last 27 on the road and just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 after failing to cover the spread in two or more straight games, while Miami Florida is 3-1 ATS in its last four following a conference contest. Grab the points, expecting “nail-biter.”

8* Miami

The set-up: I think 7-10 LBSU is severely overmatched here. The UC Irvine Anteaters enter at 14-4 overall. LBSU averages 75 PPG and it’s allowing 76. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Deishaun Booker has been a bright spot by averaging 15 PPG though. UC Irvine averages 70 PPG, but it allows just 64. The Anteaters are deep and talented are hitting 44 percent from the floor as a team thus far. 

The pick: Additionally note that LBSU is a poor 11-15 ATS in its last 26 after playing its previous game as the favorite, while UC Irvine is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 as a home favorite or pick. Lay the points.

*10 UCI

The set-up: New Mexico will be out to atone for a 91-76 loss at Colorado State on Saturday as two-point favorite. The Lobos fell to 2-2 in MWC action with the setback. SDSU enters off a pathetic 62-48 loss to Air Force as a 5.5 point road favorite this weekend to also fall to 2-2 in league play. The Aztecs ply managed 16 first half points and I think they’ll have trouble with their offensive play today as well against this focused Lobos side.  

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Lobos have seen the total dip “under” in seven of their last nine overall, while SDSU has seen the total go “under” in 11 of the last 15 in this series. The conditions and the trends point to the “under” as the correct call in this one.

8*

The set-up: I think this one sets up well to be a lower-scoring defensive battle from a situational stand point. WSU will be eager to atone for a poor 92-60 loss in Colorado on Thursday, while Utah will also be out to bounce back after a 69-53 loss at home to Washington. Utah has won nine straight in this series, including a 77-70 road victory last February 17th. I believe we’ll see a similar final combined score here as well. As stated above, I think from a “situational” stand point that this one definitely sets up as more of a defensive affair. 

The pick: Note as well that WSU has already seen the total go “under” in three of its last four on the road and in ten of its last 15 off a road loss vs. a conference rival of more than ten points, while Utah has seen the total dip “under” in three of its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. This number is high, play the “under.” 

10* TOTAL OF MONTH

The set-up: I think that home floor will prove to be the difference in this matchup. The BC Eagles are 9-5 and the ND Fighting Irish are 10-5. BC comes in off an 83-56 loss to Virginia on Wednesday, while the Irish fell 72-62 to Syracuse in their latest action. ND beat BC twice last year and look for the Irish to take the first one this season as well. BC actually comes in off three straight losses. The Eagles are averaging 75 PPG and they’re allowing 72.1. Notre Dame won’t be taking anything for granted here though after two straight conference losses. Overall the irish average 75.6 PPG and they allow 68.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the home team is 4-1 ATS in its last five in this series, while BC is 0-5 ATS in its last five following a SU loss of more than 20 points and just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a double-digit home loss. I’m laying the points and expecting a rout.

8* WAKE AND MAKE

The set-up: Wright State somehow managed to take both games vs. Northern Kentucky last year, but I think the Norse will bounce back this season and take the first matchup this time around. Wright State comes in off an 89-73 win over Oakland, while NKU destroyed Detroit 95-73 last time out. The Norse are balanced on both sides of the ball and are the much “deeper” team this season, note that six players would score in double figures in the win over the Titans. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Wright State is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while NKU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after a victory in which it scored 95 points or more in. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* DEMOLITION

The set-up: Youngstown State will be gunning for an upset here after its 76-51 road win over Milwaukee in its latest contest. UIC enters off a tough 66-64 loss at home to IUPUI in its latest action. The Penguins play with revenge here as they’ve lost four straight in the series, including a 100-75 road loss last February 8th. Youngstown State averages 76.6 PPG and it allows 80.3. UIC averages only 75.6 PPG, while allowing 77.1. 

The pick: take it for what you will as well, but Youngstown State is already 3-1 ATS this season as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 after playing two consecutive road games as the underdog, while UIC is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. I believe that these teams are much more evenly matched than what this spread would suggest. Combine the situational and motivational factors working in favor of Youngstown State and an outright win isn’t out of the question here. That said, I’m grabbing the points.

10* play

The set-up: Neither team is going to be lacking for motivation today and I believe this competitive battle will produce a lot of points. Miami Florida clearly can’t be happy at 8-6 overall and 0-2 in ACC action. FSU is a much better 12-2, but the Seminoles enter this one off a poor conference opening 65-52 loss to Virginia on Saturday. With both teams looking to break back into the win column, I believe that from a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as a higher-scoring “shootout.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but the Hurricanes have seen the total go “over” the number in nine of their last 11 as a road underdog or pick and in six of eight already this season vs. teams with winning records, while FSU has seen the total go “over” in five of seven at home this season and in four of its last five after scoring 60 points or less in its previous outing. This number is low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: Villanova has won three straight and I think it carries that momentum over here into another solid victory at home against the surprising Red Storm, who have started the year 14-1, including conference wins over Marquette and Georgetown. The Red Storm have been playing over their heads, including the thrilling 97-94 OT win over Georgetown. Can anyone say “letdown” spot though? The defending champs will be out to send a message here in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Villanova is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 at home and 35-16 ATS in its last 51 vs. teams with winning records, while St. John’s is still just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five on the road. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: Temple is 10-3 and Wichita State is just 7-6, but after back-to-back losses, I think the Shockers defend home court and bounce back this evening. Temple comes in susceptible after its three-game win streak was snapped in loss to UCF last time out. Temple averages 73.8 PPG and it allows 68.5. Wichita State is averaging 70.4 PPG and it’s allowing 70.8. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Temple is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning records and only 2-7 ATS in its last nine after playing two consecutive road games, while Wichita State is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 85 points or more in its previous contest. Play on Wichita State.

10* play

FREE FIRST HALF NFL PLAY: The set-up: Philadelphia clearly can’t sit back and wait for the game to come to it, it’ll have to be the attacker from the outset if it has any shot at pulling off the upset. With QB Nick Foles directing the show, I believe the Eagles lay everything on the line early and I will therefore recommend this first half wager. Philadelphia looked good in its 24-0 win over a depleted Redskins team last weekend. The Bears actually helped the Eagles get into the playoffs with their Week 17 victory over the Vikings. On paper, the Bears have the better offense and slightly better defense. Foles and the Eagles though bring experience and intangibles to the table which I think are being severely undervalued.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is a sharp 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive victories against the spread, while Chicago is 0-3 ATS in its last three off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. Look for the Eagles to take the first half.

10* play.

The set-up: This is the conference opener for both teams and I absolutely believe that home court will prove to be the difference maker in the end. Oregon has won four of the last five in the series and it’s been even better when on its home floor with seven straight victories over the Beavers. Oregon State is ripe for the picking as it comes in with zero momentum having lost three of their last four. Oregon tate averages 73.3 PPG and it allows 64.9. Oregon has won four straight and it averages 72.1 PPG and it allows 62.5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oregon is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 at home, while Oregon State is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win and only 2-9 ATS in its last 11 played on the road following three or more straight games at home. Lay the points.

8* play

The set-up: FSU is 12-1 and Virginia is 12-0. I’m not calling for an outright victory, but I definitely think that the Seminoles can keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Seminoles enter off an 87-76 win over Winthrop, while Virginia smashed Marshall 100-64 at home in its most recent action. Overall FSU averages 82.3 PPG, while allowing 68.4. The Cavaliers average 74.7 PPG and they allow 51.4. 

The pick: The numbers though support our play on the visitors today, as note that FSU is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five road games with a home win percentage of greater than .600, while Virginia is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The UCF Knights are 11-2 and they’ve seen the O/U go 6-6 in lined games, while UConn is 9-5 overall, while seeing the O/U go 8-5. The Knights come in on top form having won five straight and I think they carry that momentum and confidence over here. Overall the Golden Knights are averaging 76.5 PPG and allowing 63.8 (they did give up 73 to Temple in their last game though.) After winning two straight, the Huskies will be eager to get back into the winners circle after two straight setbacks. UConn averages 80.4 PPG and it allows 71.7 (note though that the Huskies have allowed 78.5 PPG over their last two games.) 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last five following a home victory, while UConn has seen the total go “over” in five of eight at home. This number is low, play the “over.”

8* play

The set-up: The Dons come in at 12-2 and St. Mary’s is 9-6. The Gaels started slowly by losing their first four, but they’ve bounced back to go 9-6 to this point and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. Tanner Krebs led the way in St. Mary’s most recent win with 20 points off six three-pointers. The Gaels come in averaging 113.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing just 99.7 points per 100 possessions. San Fran may be 12-2, but it comes in off a 73-71 road loss to UC Santa Barbara. San Fran is scoring 107.8 points per 100 possessions, while allowing just 94.2 per 100 possessions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but St. Mary’s is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win of 20 points or more, while San Francisco is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss. Clearly the outright is possible, but I’m grabbing the points.

10* play

The set-up: Two of the top teams in the nation collide and I think that points will be plentiful. The Pirates enter off a 76-74 home win over St. John’s, while the Musketeers will be eager to keep the momentum rolling after a 74-65 home win over DePaul. Seton Hall comes in at 10-3 and it plays with “double revenge” here after dropping both contests in the series last year. The Pirates average 75.5 PPG and they allow 69.6. Xavier though is 7-1 at home and it averages 75.4 PPG, while allowing 70.1. 

The pick: I’m expecting a wide open, faster paced game. Take it for what you will as well, but Seton Hall has seen the total go “over” the number in ten of its last 14 as a road dog or pick, while Xavier has seen the total go “over” in 21 of its last 36 at home. This number is low, play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: Cal State is 4-9 and Washington is 8-4. The Huskies haven’t played since beating Sacramento State on December 21st and with one last “tune-up” before conference play, I’m expecting the home side to make the most of this favorable matchup. The Titans beat Portland 79-64 on Saturday, but previous to that Cal State had lost four in a row. The Titans have struggled against better defensive clubs, which clearly poses a problem facing the stingy Huskies today. 

The pick: Cal State has struggled with consistency to this point as well, going 0-5 ATS in its last five on the road and 0-4 ATS following a SU victory. Washington on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing records. This one has “blowout” written all over it. Lay the points.

The set-up: Neither team is doing very well this year. Montana state is 4-7, while Northern Arizona is just 2-9. But after beating Southern Utah 92-62 this past Saturday, I think Montana State will take a step back here. Overall Montana State averages 72.7 PPG, while allowing 81.9. Northern Arizona averages 72.1 PPG and it allows 81.1. Most recently the Lumberjacks fell 86-73 to Montana last weekend. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Montana State is just 8-21 ATS in its last 29 after covering the spread in its previous game, while Northern Arizona is still 13-9 ATS in its last 22 at home and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after five or more consecutive losses. I think the “hungrier” teams finds a way to get the job done here. Play on Northern Arizona.

10* play

The set-up: Lipscomb comes in off a 91-66 win over Vermont last Saturday to improve to 9-3, but I think the Bison will struggle in this difficult non-conference road venue vs. the Power 5 opponent. Clemson comes in at 9-3 as well and having won three straight, most recently a 78-68 victory over South Carolina. Despite having failed to cover in five of their last six, I think the Tigers will take full advantage of this favorable match-up. Marcquise Reed is back in the line-up after missing three games and he had 20 points in the win over the Gamecocks. I think he’s a difference maker and I believe he’ll be a match-up issue for the Bison.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference home games on the heels of a three games or more unbeaten streak. I’m banking on a blowout. Lay the points.

10* play