This is a 10* play on Over.

Michigan ranked #1 in the country in scoring defense this season, allowing less than 20 points per game. They are coming off a Rose Bowl win over Alabama, holding Jalen Milroe to just 116 passing yards and sacking him six times. Why is this game going to be different? Well Michael Penix Jr. is by far the best QB this Michigan defense will have seen this season. During the regular season the best QB they saw was Kyle McCord, and Ohio State scored 24 points on the road, outdoors in the winter at Ann Arbor. This is an indoor game in a dome, with an artificial surface, and that should favor the Huskies. Michigan has gone over the total in 16 of their last 21 neutral site games since 2004. While Alabama's offensive line struggled, and Jalen Milroe couldn't get the ball out quick enough, Michael Penix Jr is more than capable of getting the ball out in a hurry, and avoiding pressure. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on WASH.

Ask yourself what is more impressive... beating Alabama in Week 2, or beating Oregon twice including at a neutral site in the PAC12 Championship game. Texas might be the more athletic team with higher end talent, but this doesn't look like a great matchup for the Longhorns. While Texas ranks 1st in the BIG12 in rushing defense, the Longhorns rank 10th against the pass. That may prove to be a concern against Kalen Deboer and his Heisman candidate quarterback and star studded receiving corps. The Huskies did beat Texas in a bowl game last year, and they appear to be a live dog here in the Sugar Bowl. I'll take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Alabama.

Michigan has been consistent all year long, but they haven't played the same schedule as Alabama. The only loss on Alabama's schedule came in non-conference play against Texas in Week 2. Who did Michigan play in Week 2? The Wolverines didn't play a ranked team until the Penn State game in mid November. Jim Harbaugh is just 5-16 in his career versus Top 10 ranked teams, while Nick Saban is 9-3 in the College Football Playoffs. Michigan's offensive line has bullied opposing defenses, but if Alabama can win the line of scrimmage against Georgia, they should be able to hold their own against Michigan. Jalen Milroe is far more dynamic than JJ McCarthy, and Alabama's defense held Georgia to 2.5 yards per carry in the SEC Championship Game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on MISS.

So far favorites have struggled this bowl season, and I think Penn State is asked to cover too many points here in the Peach Bowl. The Rebels are surrounded by an aura of positivity right now, while the Nittany Lions lost both coordinators on offense and defense. James Franklyn is just 4-4 in bowl games at Penn State. I'll take the points with a team that should be a helluva lot happier about being at The Peach Bowl.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIZZ.

The Buckeyes are a better team than Missouri, and even with several starters opting out, they should still have a talent advantage. Disparity in talent isn't the be all and end all in bowl games though, as some teams simply want it more. Playing in the Cotton Bowl exceeds all expectations for Missouri, but it's a bitter disappointment for the Buckeyes. We know Kyle McCord is gone, Marvin Harrison Jr. is highly unlikely to play. Brady Cook, Cody Shrader and Luther Burden are expected to play. As good as the Buckeyes defense was this season, I challenge you to name the QB & WR duo they faced that would compare to Cook and Burden.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on ARI.

The Sooners will be a shell of the team we saw beat Texas in the Red River Rivalry. They won't have QB Dillon Gabriel in the Alamo Bowl, but Jackson Arnold is highly touted and gets a chance to prove himself. He was a five star recruit, but that doesn't always translate right away. Noah Fifita on the other hand stepped in and turned Arizona into a juggernaut. The Wildcats come in riding a six game winning streak with four of those six wins coming against ranked teams.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on OKST.

I like the Cowboys here against an Aggies team with a third string QB, an interim coach and a ton of players in the portal or declared for the NFL draft. Oklahoma State will have Ollie Gordon ready to go, and he was the leading rusher in the BIG12 this year. Mike Gundy has a record of 11-6 all time in bowls, putting him among the active leaders in bowl wins.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on TXST.

The Bobcats started the season off with a bang, upsetting Baylor in Week 1. They won seven games in the Sun Belt, and their offense ranked among the top teams in the county averaging 36 points per game. Rice had to win back to back games at the end of the year to qualify for a bowl, after quarterback JT Daniels quit football all together over injury concerns. Freshman AJ Padgett took over, and he was solid in four starts. He only faced one team with a winning record, throwing for 182 yards and two TDs on 17-of-28 passing in a 34-14 loss to UTSA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on SJST.

So who does Coastal Carolina have in the transfer portal? Well the list of guys who aren't in the portal might be shorter. The Chanticleers have more players in the portal than any other team this Bowl Season. San Jose State comes in riding a six game winning streak, and senior QB Chevan Cordiero threw 13 TDs and just one INT in those games. This looks like a very one-sided set up, and it shouldn't be too hard for the Spartans to win this game by double digits.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on UTSA.

In the press conference with Roadrunners head coach Jeff Trailor. he said that his team is 100% all in for this bowl game. He also said that winning a bowl game is the one thing that his team hasn't yet accomplished during his tenure. Marshall's head coach Charles Huff wasn't as optimistic about his team, saying that he wasn't surprised to hear that the starting QB was in the transfer portal. "There isn’t a lot of money for NIL and the fans hate him," Huff said. "The kid has been miserable, the fans hated him" Between Huff's comments and the number of players in the portal, we have to fade the Herd here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on CAL.

The Bears might be the more motivated team here coming into the Bowl off three straight wins. They had a rough schedule, with all but one of their losses coming against ranked teams. The only exception was a 14-10 loss to an SEC team (Auburn). Texas Tech has 15 players in the transfer portal, including two of their top three receivers. Cal might be all fired up by the news that the leading rusher in the PAC12 (Jaydn Ott) is staying at Cal for another season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on APP.

It was a down year for the MAC in my opinion, and that is evidenced by the fact that the conference champions had a QB that averaged well below 100 yards per game, with 2 TDs and 2 INTs in eight starts. Now he's in the transfer portal, leaving them with no experienced quarterbacks. The Sun Belt is the superior conference, as evidenced by their strong representation in the bowls. App State won five of their final six games, and that included an upset at JMU on Gameday.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Tulane.

The Green Wave and the SMU Mustangs are ranked #1 and #2 in total defense in the American. Tulane only lost one game this season, and that was against Ole Miss without their starting QB in a game that was closer that the score would indicate. They held UTSA to just 16 points in their final game of the regular season, and they allowed just eight against FAU the week before. The Mustangs have lost starting QB Preston Stone for the remainder of the season, and that's going to put them at a major disadvantage here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on BAMA.

It would appear that recency bias is at play here. This line opened at -3.5 but after a near loss in the Iron Bowl the public is lining up to bet against Alabama. Georgia is going for 30 wins in a row, but the idea that they are significantly better than Alabama is lacking some critical evidence. Alabama lost at home to Texas in Week 2. Georgia played Ball State at home that week. These teams are actually pretty far apart when it comes to strength of schedule. History favors Alabama, who has beaten the Dawgs in 2012, 2018 and 2021 in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia hasn't had to face a lot of adversity, while we have seen Alabama trail 20-7 to Tennessee at halftime and come storming back in the second half. We saw them snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat more than once this season, including the Iron Bowl last week.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on FSU.

The injury to Jordan Travis was heartbreaking not just for Florida State fans, but for all college football fans. The Florida Gators have also lost their starting QB, and Graham Mertz was having a stellar season at Florida. The Seminoles are hoping Tate Rodemaker can do what Cardale Jones did back in 2015. He steps into a pretty good situation, with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. Rodemaker has been at FSU for four seasons, so he has a huge advantage in comparison to freshman Max Brown. In a battle between backup QBs, you would think both teams will look to establish the run. That doesn't bode well for the Gators, who rank 12th in the SEC versus the run allowing 5 yards per carry.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on BAMA.

A one loss Alabama team still has a chance to make the playoffs, but a close game here against an Auburn team that lost by three scores at home to New Mexico State last week isn't going to look good on the resume. Alabama needs to win, and win big in the Iron Bowl. There will be those that say "the is a rivalry game" ... but I would counter with the fact that Alabama has won seven of the last nine, and six of those seven wins have come by more than 14 points. I am not sure these teams have been farther apart in recent seasons.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MICH.

So the Wolverines have owned Ohio State in the last two meetings, and we have to ask ourselves what has changed? Michigan is basically the same team that ran for 252 yards and three TDs in a blowout win in Columbus last year. Blake Corum was hurt in that game, and he's full of piss and vinegar heading into this game. CJ Stroud threw for 349 yards and two TDs in a losing effort last year, and the NFL MVP candidate is replaced by Kyle McCord, who has looked rather pedestrian. Marvin Harrison Jr. has the potential to be the X-Factor, but only if the offensive line can hold up long enough for him to get down field. The Buckeyes defense may have improved, but I think that is just going to result in another loss, this time in a low scoring game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the Ducks.

It will be tough to pick up the pieces after a tough loss for the Beavers. Despite dominating time of possession and total yards at home versus Washington, they lost by a score of 22-20. Now they play on the road at Eugene, facing a Ducks team looking to avenge last year's loss in this rivalry game. This is just a bad matchup for the Beavers, who lean heavily on their rushing attack. The Ducks have allowed just 96 rush yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry this season. Oregon is 6-0 at home this season, and the average margin of victory in those wins is 37 points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on TTU.

The Central Florida Knights are coming off a blowout win over Oklahoma State at the Bounce House, but that sets them up for a let down here in Lubbock. Texas Tech has won four of their last five with Behren Morton at quarterback, and the sophomore has thrown for 640 yards, six TDs and an INT in three home starts. John Rhys Plumlee has only completed 57 percent of his passes on the road, with just two TDs and two INTs. The Knights have lost three of four road games in conference play, and the one win came against bottom feeders Cincinnati.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on UCLA.

Both these teams are looking to break out of a slump. UCLA is coming off back to back losses to Arizona and Arizona State, while USC is coming off losses to Washington and Oregon. The Trojans are asked to cover a big spread, but their defense can't stop anybody. USC has allowed opponents to average 43 points per game in their last seven overall. The Trojans beat the Bruins 48-45 last year, and a similar score should be expected here. I'll take the points in a game that I expect to be decided in the final minute.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on UTSA.

The Roadrunners have won six in a row, and the average margin of victory in those wins was over 17 points. A home game against South Florida figures to be another blowout win. The Bulls are coming off a home win over Temple, but they were lucky that the Owls turned the ball over four times. This South Florida defense ranks among the worst in the country, giving up over 450 yards per game. Frank Harris and the Roadrunners offense should be able to take full advantage here at home.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on BGRN.

The Rockets are 6-0 in the MAC, and they will be a double digit road favorite here. Their last two road wins were both close games decided by one score. Bowling Green comes in riding a four game winning streak, and last year they won outright 42-35 at Toledo. The Rockets lean heavily on their running game, but Bowling Green has one of the top rushing defenses in the MAC. They have held opponents to 3.9 yards per carry, and 137 yards per game. I'll take the home dog in this spot.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on ORE.

The Ducks are dominant at home, where they crushed Colorado by a score of 42-6 earlier this season. That's the same Colorado team that pushed USC to the brink in LA a week later. The Ducks crushed Utah 35-6 in Salt Lake City two weeks ago, and that same Utah team won outright at USC. The Trojans have lost three of four, and coming off a home loss to Washington this looks like a let down spot. The last time the Trojans played a road game as an underdog they lost by 28 at Notre Dame. The Ducks are better than Notre Dame.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Vols aren't the offensive juggernaut they were a year ago, but they have been pretty solid defensively. They might not see the best of this Missouri offense, as star wide receiver Luther Burden was injured last week in the loss to Georgia. Brady Cook was sacked three times, throwing for 212 yards a TD and a pair of INTs on 14-of-30 passing in the loss to Georgia last week. The Tigers have gone under this number in four of their last six home games. Tennessee has failed to reach the total in two of their three road games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

After the Huskies beat Oregon at home a few weeks ago, they followed up with a 15-7 win over Arizona State. It's fair to say that they suffered a let down, and this looks like another let down spot coming off a 52-42 win over USC. The Utah Utes are a tough opponent, and the weather here in Washington could give them a boost. If the wind and rain in the forecast puts the damper on the passing game, the Huskies could be in four a fight. Utah has a Top 10 scoring defense allowing just 15.9 points per game. This game could be a low scoring battle.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Jayhawks are 5-0 at home and they have scored an average of 42 points in those games. They host Texas Tech Saturday, and the Red Raiders have owned them over the years. Texas Tech has won nine of the last 10 head to head meetings, and they scored 40+ in each of the last two meetings. The Red Raiders have been a better team with Behren Morton at QB. They are 4-2 in the games he has played, and 0-3 in the rest. The total here should probably be a bit higher.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

These teams are among the fastest (pace of play) in the country. South Florida lay a half a hundred on Memphis last week, and still lost by a score of 59-50. It was the third time in their last four games that they scored 50+. They have scored 40 or more in six of their last seven. They host Temple in a revenge game after losing 54-28 at Temple last season. Temple QB EJ Warner has thrown for 400+ yards in back to back games, and has nine TDs in those contests. This game has shootout written all over it.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on UNLV.

The Rebels are 4-1 in the Mountain West, and they are 4-0 at home. They rank among the best rushing offenses in the country, averaging almost 200 yards per game on the ground. They host Wyoming, and the Cowboys coming off a big home win over Colorado State. Wyoming is undefeated at home this season, and winless on the road. They lost 32-7 at Boise State in their last road game, and a similar result seems likely here in Vegas.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Baylor.

Throw out the season stats for Baylor, as Blake Shapen missed a handful of games. They have definitely been a better team with him at QB. The Bears have home field, a better defense and I think Aranda is a better coach than Dana Holgerson. Donovan Smith has been very inconsistent for Houston, and this looks like a tough spot.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on VT.

The Hokies looked like they turned back the clock last week, demolishing the Syracuse Orange in Blacksburg. They are a 10 point favorite here at Louisville and I am banking on this to be a close game. The Cardinals are coming off a 23-0 win over Duke, but they will likely have their hands full with a VT defense that leads the ACC in sacks.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Over.

The Sooners are banged up, and star linebacker Danny Strutsman is questionable for the last edition of Bedlam. The Cowboys offense has been firing on all cylinders, but during their winning streak they continue to give up a ton of yards and a ton of points. The long term forecast was calling for high winds and nasty weather, and that may have kept this total a little lower than expected. The latest news out of Stillwater is that weather will not be a concern. They don't call it Bedlam for nothing, we expect a shootout in Oklahoma.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Nebraska.

A change at QB has paid dividends for Nebrasksa. It's not like Heinrich Haarberg has been lighting it up, but he's been effective as a duel threat and limited the mistakes that were costing the Huskers earlier this season with Jeff Sims as the starter. Nebraska has won three in a row and I like them to keep it rolling in East Lansing against a Spartans team that has lost six straight.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on FLA.

The Gators looked bad against Georgia, but who doesn't look bad against the defending champs. A return home to face a struggling Arkansas team should be just what the doctor ordered. The Razorbacks have been on the wrong side of plenty of close games, but it's asking a lot to expect them to be on the right side here in a tough environment.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on TTU.

The Red Raiders should have a significant edge at QB here at home tonight with Baron Morton returning from injury. They are 3-2 in the games he has played, and he's thrown for almost 700 yards, 8 TDs and just two INTs. The TCU Horned Frogs won't have their starter, and freshman Josh Hoover has looked really bad on the road. Kansas State ran for 343 yards against the Horned Frogs in their last game, and this defense hasn't been stopping anyone. I'll take the Red Raiders as a slight home favorite.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on UTSA.

I have been riding this Roadrunners team since Frank Harris returned, and they haven't let me down. They have won three straight, covering in all three games. At first glance 18 might look like a big number, but UTSA has won back to back games by 20+, and those games were against better teams that ECU. Harris has thrown for 770 yards, 7 TDs and 2 INTs on over 70 percent passing since coming back from the injury. I see no season why the Roadrunners don't win by 20+ here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on UTSA.

I don't think the markets have accurately accounted for the return of Frank Harris, who has thrown for over 500 yards and five TDs in back to back double digit wins since coming back from injury. The Roadrunners had a disappointing start to the season, but that can be partially explained by the injury to their starting QB. The Owls lost their starter for the season, and backup Daniel Richardson has thrown for 902 yards, 5 TDs and 4 INTs in four starts. I don't think the Owls offense has enough weapons to keep up to UTSA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

I bet the under in the Vols home game against Texas A&M. Here is what I said prior to the game: "The Vols ran for 238 yards and three TDs in a win over South Carolina two weeks ago, but they face a much tougher Aggies defense this week. Texas A&M held Alabama to just 23 rushing yards last week, but Jalen Milroe and Jermaine Burton lit them up. Joe Milton hasn't been lighting anybody up this season, and he won't have his top WR Bru McCoy for the rest of the season. This game should be a defensive battle, and we should expect a low score. Both these teams have held opponents to fewer than 20 points per game." Alabama should be able to dominate this game on the ground, and the Vols are going to struggle to score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on PSU.

The Buckeyes come into this week's home game against Penn State with a 6-0 record and they are ranked 3rd nationally. Kyle McCord has pedestrian numbers for an Ohio State quarterback, and at times this team has appeared vulnerable. The win over Maryland two weeks ago was closer than it should have been, and they needed a miracle to beat the Irish at Notre Dame. This team fell apart at the end of last year, losing 45-23 at home to Michigan,and then losing to Georgia in the Peach Bowl. Penn State looks every bit as dangerous as the Michigan team that embarrassed them here last year. I'll take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on WKU.

I bet against Jacksonville state a few weeks ago when they were a small underdog at Middle Tennessee. I called them a public dog, and when they trailed by three scores at halftime I thought I was pretty sharp. The Blue Raiders imploded in the second half, and the Gamecocks won again. I still think they are overvalued, and they rank 122nd in strength of schedule. Even though they haven't played anybody, they rank 91st nationally in opponent passing yards. Making matters worse, they might not have their starting QB available for this game. The Hilltoppers scored 35 points in the first half in a win at LA-Tech in their last game, and they should dominate this game from start to finish.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Blue Devils have had a week off to recover from their heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame, and now they host NC State without starting QB Riley Leonard. We are likely to see freshman Henry Belin IV at QB, and that should mean a conservative game plan relying heavily on the running game and the defense. Duke ranks 4th nationally in scoring defense, and the Wolfpack are starting a backup quarterback who threw three INTs in his debut against Marshall last week. I expect MJ Morris to struggle against this Duke defense.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Oregon State.

The Bruins couldn't get anything going on offense when they played on the road at Utah, and a trip to Corvallis might just be a recurring nightmare for UCLA. That same Utah team that UCLA had so much trouble with, was held to seven points in a crushing 21-7 loss at Corvallis a week later. Far more significant than the results versus a common opponent, are the similarities in playing in such a hostile environment. The Beavers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on UTSA.

I had UTSA last week and I said this prior to their game at Temple: "I was one of many who were high on UTSA heading into the season, but they struggled losing three of their first four games. Put the blame on poor play from starting QB Frank Harris, who has missed the last two games due to injury. The Roadrunners come out of the bye week looking to flip the switch. They couldn't ask for a better spot for a get right game, and Harris is expected to return." Harris threw for 338 yards and three TDs on 25-of-33 passing in the win at Temple, and he should be primed for a big game at home versus UAB.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Bruins couldn't get anything going on offense when they played on the road at Utah, and a trip to Corvallis might just be a recurring nightmare for UCLA. That same Utah team that UCLA had so much trouble with, was held to seven points in a crushing 21-7 loss at Corvallis a week later. Far more significant than the results versus a common opponent, are the similarities in playing in such a hostile environment. The Beavers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games, and they have held opponents to single digits in all three of their home games this season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Kansas.

The Jayhawks are 5-1 with the only loss coming on the road at Texas. They are coming off a blowout win over UCF, and backup quarterback Jason Bean only attempted a dozen passes throwing for 91 yards and a TD on 8-of-12 passing. They ran all over UCF, rushing for 399 yards and 5 TDs. The Jayhawks ran for 351 yards and 2 TDs in a 37-16 win over Oklahoma State last season. The Cowboys quarterback situation is still in disarray, with Allan Bowman completing just over 50 percent of his passes for 743 yards, 2 TDs and 3 INTs. With or without Jalon Daniels I like Kansas to get the win here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Vols ran for 238 yards and three TDs in a win over South Carolina two weeks ago, but they face a much tougher Aggies defense this week. Texas A&M held Alabama to just 23 rushing yards last week, but Jalen Milroe and Jermaine Burton lit them up. Joe Milton hasn't been lighting anybody up this season, and he won't have his top WR Bru McCoy for the rest of the season. This game should be a defensive battle, and we should expect a low score. Both these teams have held opponents to fewer than 20 points per game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Oregon State Beavers offense is heavily reliant on their running game, ranking 16th nationally averaging 206 yards per game. California ranks even higher, averaging 212 yards per game. Both teams are pretty solid on defense, so we should expect this game to be rock fight. The Golden Bears have gone under in all three of their home games so far, and with both teams looking to establish the run we could see a low score here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on KAN.

Even if starting QB Jalon Daniels can't play, I think Kansas has enough weapons to blow past UCF at home. Central Florida was outscored 26-0 in the fourth quarter of a home loss to Baylor last week. Timmy McClain struggled at quarterback for UCF, completing just 13-of-25 passes for 234 yards, 2 TDs and an INT. Jason Bean has seven starts dating back to last season, and he threw for 17 TDs and just four INTs in those games. He also ran for four TDs in five starts last year. If Daniels plays, it will be a bonus getting the Jayhawks at this number.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on UTSA.

I was one of many who were high on UTSA heading into the season, but they struggled losing three of their first four games. Put the blame on poor play from starting QB Frank Harris, who has missed the last two games due to injury. The Roadrunners come out of the bye week looking to flip the switch. They couldn't ask for a better spot for a get right game, and Harris is expected to return. Temple ranks 11th in the American Athletic Conference in scoring defense allowing 31 points per game. They allowed 48 points and 533 yards of total offense in a loss to Tulsa last week. Harris and the Roadrunners offense should pick this team apart.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Texas.

So the Longhorns won the Red River Rivalry game in a 49-0 blowout last year. Some might say that this sets up a revenge spot here in this game. The Sooners are 5-0, however they have yet to face a ranked team. Texas won by double digits at #3 ranked Alabama in Week 2, and then last week they steamrolled #24 Kansas at home. Quinn Ewers has thrown for 1,358 yards, 10 TDs and 1 INT while playing a challenging schedule. I think it's asking too much of Oklahoma to compete in this game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Huskies are the #1 passing offense in the country, and they are averaging over 49 points per game. The Huskies beat Arizona by a score of 49-39 last year, and the total for that game was 71.5. A lower number here, but I don't see how Washington scores less than 50. Both these teams want to play fast and air it out, and another high score should be expected. Last week the Bears scored 32 against Washington, I think we can count on Arizona scoring 20-30 here at home. Looking at 55-24 Huskies ...

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Alabama is coming off a dominant effort on defense, holding Ole Miss to just 10 points in a 24-10 home win. Nick Saban came in with a plan, and he executed with precision. He utilized the skill set of Jalen Milroe as a dual threat, as he ran the ball almost as much as he threw it. Overall Alabama ran 21 passing plays and 45 running plays. They head to Starkeville this week, and they beat the Bulldogs by a score of 30-6 last year. That was with Bryce Young at QB for Alabama, and Will Rogers in the Air Raid. The Bulldogs have abandoned the Air Raid, leaning more on their run game. These teams have gone under in five straight head to head meetings, and I expect that trend to continue here. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on TEN.

This is a huge revenge game for the Vols after they got lit up for over 60 points in a loss to the Gamecocks last year. This is also a spot where we can buy low on the Vols, as people are still down on them after they lost at Florida, and it's a sell high spot on South Carolina after they played Georgia tough and Spencer Rattler completed 90% of his passes in a win over Mississippi State last week. Rattler has been playing well so far, but history tells us that when the going gets tough he can be "rattled". This looks like a tough spot for the Gamecocks, and we aren't going to be surprised if Rattler gets rattled.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The new rules in college football season don't seem to have had a significant effect on totals for most teams, but the exception might be the likes of service academies and the likes of Iowa, Nebrasksa. This total sits at 53.5, and Navy has yet to play a game that has seen that much scoring. Early weather forecasts are calling for wind and rain in Anapolis on Saturday. Perfect conditions for a traditional ground and pound game with long slow drives that chew up the clock and result in a low scoring battle.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on ND.

This is a tough one, and I did go back and forth a bit. Neither of these two teams have faced anyone this season, so we have to look deeper than that. They played a close game at the beginning of last season, and here we have what looks like a downgrade at QB for Ohio State, and a massive upgrade for the Irish. I'll take the home dog plus the points here as a late add.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Utah.

The UCLA Bruins look like a pretty good team so far. We saw in Week Zero what happens when "pretty good teams" play at Rice Eccles. The Florida Gators lost 24-11 at Utah and everyone wrote them off. We saw last week in their win over Tennessee, that they aren't nearly as bad as people thought they might be. The Bruins have played three games at Utah since 2017, and they lost all three games by 20+ points. Utah is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and losing 42-32 at UCLA last year sets up a revenge spot. Cam Rising has missed the first three weeks recovering from a knee injury, but he's expected to start here in the PAC12 opener.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

The Crimson Tide have plenty of problems, but the defense isn't one one of them. Ole Miss comes in with a 3-0 record, but I think it's important have a closer look at those wins. Surely wins over Mercer and Georgia Tech can't be considered an indication that this team can upset Alabama. There is a double digit win over Tulane that you might think they can hang their hat on, but the Green Wave didn't have their starting QB in that game. The Rebels held a 27-20 lead with two minutes remaining in that game, however a comedy of errors saw them score 10 unanswered points in the final 1:53 seconds. I still think Alabama will win this game, but in order to do so they are going to need to slow the game down, play conservative, run the ball and lean on their defense.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on FSU.

The Seminoles may have been caught looking ahead last week in an alarming 31-29 win over Boston College. They face a far tougher test travelling to Death Valley to take on Clemson. The Tigers have home field advantage, but I am uncertain that will be enough to overcome the huge disparity at the quarterback position. Senior Jordan Travis has plenty of experience playing in and winning big games. Kade Klubnik has only stated five games for Clemson, and he was on the wrong side of blowout losses to Tennessee and Duke. The Seminoles have superior talent and more returning production on both sides of the ball. This to me appears to be a mismatch, and I expect Florida State to win decisively.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on G-State.

The Chanticleers won 41-24 at Georgia State last season, but a lot has changed since then. Grayson McCall is back at QB, but the offensive line lost some key starters and head coach Jamie Chadwell went to Liberty. The Panthers are 3-0, and senior QB Danny Grainger has completed over 70 percent of his passes for 803 yards, eight touchdowns and no picks. He threw for 198 yards and two touchdowns in a 42-40 win in his last start at Coastal Carolina in 2021. The home team has lost six straight meetings between these teams. This looks like another shootout that could go either way, and I'll gladly take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. We saw the total go over in TCU's Week 1 loss to Colorado, and we saw Houston play a defensive battle versus UTSA in Week 1. The 1st half under hit in the Horned Frogs season opener, and I think the rule changes are leading to lower scores across the board in the first half of games. The public is betting the over in this game, but keep in mind TCU lost OC Garrett Riley and Max Duggan. Donovan Smith hasn't looked particular good replacing Clayton Tune at QB for Houston. This number appears to be a wee bit inflated.
 

GL,
 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. The Orange have allowed just seven point in their first two games, but they face a far tougher test here at Purdue. Both these teams lean heavily on the run, which should result in a lot of clock killing drives. This number appears to be a bit inflated. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. We saw the total go over in last year's game at Tennessee, the Vols winning 38-33. The rules aren't the only thing that has changed since then, as both teams have a downgrade at QB this season. So far we have seen both teams running the ball, and this game could see plenty of ground and pound. This number appears to be a bit inflated.

GL,
 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. We saw the total go under in both the Gophers first two games, allowing a combined 16 points in wins over Nebraska and Eastern Michigan. Tar Heels QB faces his toughest test yet, and he's struggled throwing for as many picks (2) as TDs (2). Minnesota will pound the rock, kill the clock and this game will be over before there is enough time to put up a combined 50 points.
 

GL,
 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Nick Saban's Crimson Tide have been the most dominant team in college football for over a decade, but the air of invincibility might be fading a little. Last year the Tide lost at Tennessee and LSU, and they really should have lost at Texas as well. Aided by a handful of blown calls by the officials, Alabama kicked a game winning field goal to win 20-19 in the final seconds. Texas returns nine starters on offense including QB Quinn Ewers. The Longhorns defense ranked 1st nationally in QB pressures last season, and they face Jalen Milroe who is making just his third start. His only start last year was a 24-20 home win over Texas A&M. Texas has the more experienced QB, and they should have the athletes on both sides of the ball to push Alabama to the brink just like they did last year. We should expect another low scorer here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Texas.

Nick Saban's Crimson Tide have been the most dominant team in college football for over a decade, but the air of invincibility might be fading a little. Last year the Tide lost at Tennessee and LSU, and they really should have lost at Texas as well. Aided by a handful of blown calls by the officials, Alabama kicked a game winning field goal to win 20-19 in the final seconds. Texas returns nine starters on offense including QB Quinn Ewers. The Longhorns defense ranked 1st nationally in QB pressures last season, and they face Jalen Milroe who is making just his third start. His only start last year was a 24-20 home win over Texas A&M. Texas has the more experienced QB, and they should have the athletes on both sides of the ball to push Alabama to the brink just like they did last year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

These teams played last season at College Station, and the Aggies won by a score of 17-9. With a new QB and Bobby Petrino coming in as offensive coordinator, Texas A&M might be a lot better on offense. Playing on the road at Miami doesn't figure to be a picnic though. The Canes were dominant in a win over Miami-Oh in Week 1. While the new rules regarding clock stoppages didn't really result in any clear under trend after the first week of college football, it did seem to effect some teams more than others. Neither of these two teams play particularly fast, so we could see a lot of time coming off the clock during extended drives.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under. 

You don't want to overreact to Week 1 results. Utah won convincingly at home over the Florida Gators and Baylor got lit up in a 42-31 home loss to Texas State. Utah won without Cam Rising, and Bryson Barnes was solid throwing for 159 yards and a TD on 12-of-18 passing. Nate Johnson came in at QB and ran for 45 yards and a TD on six carries. Baylor struggled on defense last season, and it looks like that has carried over into 2023. The Bears were 0-5 versus Top 25 teams, and the average margin of victory in those games was 11 points. The Bears lost starting QB Blake Shapen in Week 1, and Sawyer Robertson threw for 113 yards and an INT on 6-of-12 passing against Texas State. With or without Cam Rising the Utes have mismatches all over the field. The total in the Utes Week 1 game against FLA got bet down to 43.5. Should expect another low score here as both teams likely using backup QBs. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Utah.

You don't want to overreact to Week 1 results. Utah won convincingly at home over the Florida Gators and Baylor got lit up in a 42-31 home loss to Texas State. Utah won without Cam Rising, and Bryson Barnes was solid throwing for 159 yards and a TD on 12-of-18 passing. Nate Johnson came in at QB and ran for 45 yards and a TD on six carries. Baylor struggled on defense last season, and it looks like that has carried over into 2023. The Bears were 0-5 versus Top 25 teams, and the average margin of victory in those games was 11 points. The Bears lost starting QB Blake Shapen in Week 1, and Sawyer Robertson threw for 113 yards and an INT on 6-of-12 passing against Texas State. With or without Cam Rising the Utes have mismatches all over the field.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. Here we have a case where money is actually coming in on the over, and I think this presents an opportunity. The Cougars beat the Rams by a score of 38-7 last year, failing to reach the total of 51.5. Now we have a higher number, despite the fact that the Cougars lost their top four receivers, and their QB was sacked a PAC12 worst 46 times. Rams QB Clay Millen was sacked 53 times in just 10 games last year. These teams want to play fast and chuck it around the yard, but they can't do that if they can't keep their QB upright.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. Here we have a case where money is actually coming in on the over, and I think this presents an opportunity. While most people remember that Houston won 37-35 in overtime at UTSA last year, perhaps they forgot that the two teams combined to score just 48 points in regulation. The Cougars will have a new quarterback who is more of a dual threat than his predecessor, and star wide receiver Tank Dell is gone. I'll roll the dice that both these teams won't have time to score 30 before the clock runs out.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on WASH.

The Huskies had the top ranked offense in the PAC12 last year, averaging 515 yards per game. They bring back almost everybody including QB Michael Penix Jr. (@BigPenixEnergy) and a pair of receivers who had over 1000 yards last year. You might have heard that Boise State had the best pass defense in the country last year, but I am here to tell you that is all smoke and mirrors. They had an extremely soft schedule, and their biggest win in the Mountain West came against a Fresno State team that was without QB Jake Haener. The Broncos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus the Pac-12, and they have failed to cover in five straight versus the Huskies. I like Washington to win by 3+ scores. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. Here we have a case where money is actually coming in on the over, and I think this presents an opportunity. I understand that Colorado has a new offensive coordinator, who is famous for the "Flash Fast Offense", but can he get everyone on the same page in Week 1? Can the offensive line hold up? Or will they be punting back to TCU who also have a new offensive coordinator, and will the Horned Frogs lean on their running game as they did last year, rushing for 275 yards and four TDs on 30 carries in a 38-13 win at Colorado?

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on NEB.

I love the dog in this matchup, as I expect Matt Rhule to turn things around at Nebraska. Minnesota lost their leading rusher, starting QB and the heart and soul of their offensive line from last year, and P.J. Fleck has been making headlines for all the wrong reasons this summer. These two BIG10 rivals normally play close, low scoring games, and three of the last four meetings have been decided by one score. Casual fans aren't likely too excited about Jeff Sims transferring from GT to start at QB for the Huskers, but I think he has a chance to thrive in Matt Rhule's system.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on UGA.

The Horned Frogs somehow beat Michigan despite giving up 45 points and over 500 total yards. They opened up an early lead and held on in the second half. This is the exception and not the norm for TCU, as they had to rally late to win several games in the BIG12 this year. I think it's going to be difficult to replicate what they did against Michigan. Georgia has been in a class of it's own for the last two years, and I just don't see this mediocre TCU defense slowing them down at all. Stetson Bennett threw for 398 yards and three TDs against Ohio State, and he should have another huge game here versus TCU. I like UGA to win this game 44-27.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Both these teams should be geared up to play in the Rose Bowl. There aren't a lot of opt outs to worry about here, but both teams will be without their top corners. Cam Rising threw for 310 yards and three TDs on 22-of-34 passing in the PAC12 Championship game, beating USC 47-24. Penn State has scored at least 30 points in six straight games, and the over is 12-5 in the Nittany Lions last 17 non-conference games. They have also gone over in four of their last five versus PAC12 teams.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on UGA. 

I am sure the Buckeyes can play better than they did against Michigan, but I am not sure that it's going to be good enough to hang with the Georgia Bulldogs. We've seen that C.J. Stroud has a high upside, but he often buckles under pressure, makes mistakes in big games. Stetson Bennett is an experienced veteran with a steady hand, who really doesn't have to do anything fancy. He played his best football in last year's playoffs, beating Michigan and Alabama. The Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 bowl games. They have the edge in the trenches and the championship pedigree. This line is currently less than a TD, and I think it should probably be closer to double digits. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on MICH.

Most people's analysis of TCU this season doesn't  seem to account for how exactly they won a lot of their games. In their win over Oklahoma, Sooners QB Dylan Gabriel was knocked out in the 2nd quarter. They trailed by double digits at halftime versus Kansas State, and the Wildcats had both their 1st and 2nd string QBs knocked out of that game. A close win over Kansas came against their second string QB, and they rallied from behind to win by a single point on a walkoff FG at Baylor. This MIchigan team is bigger, stronger, faster than all those previously mentioned, and I like the Wolverines to take the Horned Frogs behind the wood shed in the first half. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Notre Dame.

So the Gamecocks made a lot of noise at the end of the season, but I think it would be a mistake to fall victim to recency bias. Spencer Rattler threw for 438 yards and six TDs on 30-of-37 passing in a blowout win over Tennessee, and that is what everyone is going to remember. The fact is that if you take away that game, he threw for 2,342 yards 10 TDs and 11 INTs in the other 11 games he played. The Gamecocks ranked 13th in the SEC in rushing defense, allowing over 192 yards per game. The Irish are not the ideal opponent for South Carolina, with a run heavy offense and a solid defense. According to reports, South Carolina could have as many as 22 players opting out, injured or in the transfer portal. That includes their top two rushers and the majority of their top receivers.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Washington.

The Huskies finished the season on a six game win streak, and they were the #1 passing offense in the country averaging 377 passing yards per game. QB Michael Penix is coming back for another year, and he's all fired up to play in his first bowl game. While Texas will be missing their best player (RB Bijan Robinson), and a long list of starters opting out or hitting the transfer portal, we expect almost everybody to play for the Huskies. With eight defensive players either opting out or transferring, the Texas defense will not be at full strength. The total for this game has been bet up to 67.5 and might get higher before game time, I do expect a high score. I think there is better value backing the Huskies.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Oregon.

Both teams have plenty of players opting out, but I think that leaves Oregon with a huge edge in talent. Drake Maye is going to be hard pressed to keep up with an offensive juggernaut like Oregon without his top target Josh Downs. The UNC defense couldn't stop anybody this year, and they are going to be thin with a handful of players in the transfer portal. We are expecting the majority of Oregon's top WRs and RBs to play alongside Bo Bix, and they should march up and down the field tonight against this sad sacked Tar Heels defense. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a free play on the Badgers.

Both these teams will be without their top QB, but the Cowboys will miss Spencer Saunders a lot more than the Badgers will miss Graham Mertz. I don't expect to see the Badgers passing the ball, it's no secret they will be trying to run the ball down the Cowboys throats. Oklahoma State ranked near the bottom of the BIG12 in rushing defense, allowing over 170 yards per game. They couldn't stop anybody at the end of the year, losing four of their last five games. With all the opt outs and transfers from both teams, the best player in this game is likely to be Braelon Allen, and the Badgers running back could steal the show.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Fresno State.

The Cougars aren't going to have all hands on deck for their bowl game, missing several key starters on both sides of the ball. Their pass defense was pretty ugly at the end of the year, giving up 485 yards in the air in their season finale versus the Huskies. Jake Haener only played nine games this year due to injury, and he still threw for 2,616 yards, 18 TDs and just 3 INTs. The Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last five Bowl games, while the Bulldogs have covered in six of their last eight versus the PAC12.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Over.

The Roadrunners and the Trojans each finished as Conference Champions, and they both come into their bowl game as winners of 10 straight games. Troy has done it with a Top 10 ranked defense, while UTSA has been an offensive juggernaut. UTSA has scored an average of 41 points per game over it's last 10, while Troy has scored over 100 points in their final two games of the regular season. Troy's defensive stats might be misleading, a product of the opposition they faced. When they played Western Kentyucky and Appalachian State, both of those games saw 60+ points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Tulane.

This is a revenge spot for Tulane after losing 38-31 to UCF last month. John Rys Plumlee ran for 176 yards in the win, and we aren't even certain he is going to play in the rematch. If he does play, he's going to be hard pressed to run for 176 yards on a sore hamstring. The Green Wave are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games, and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 overall. They have the top ranked defense in the American, and they come into this game playing the better football.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on K-State.

The betting line for this game tells you everything you need to know. The 12-0 Horned Frogs aren't even asked to cover a FG against a three loss K-State team?? Well the bookmakers, the public and the sharps all know that K-State was taking TCU behind the wood shed back in October. They opened up a 28-10 lead in the middle of the 2nd quarter, but then they lost both their first and second string QBs, and everything went to hell. We have every reason to believe that the Wildcats will give TCU fits here in this revenge spot. Kansas State has outscored opponents by 122 points in the first half of games this season, and the Horned Frogs have been plagued by slow starts. Consider a 1st half play as well.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on USC.

This is a revenge game for the Trojans, who lost 43-42 at Utah earlier in the year. Cam Rising threw for 415 yards and two TDs on 30-of-44 passing in that game, and the Utes scored a TD and converted on a two-point try in the final minute. Rising struggled in the loss at Oregon, throwing for 170 yards and three INTs on 21-of-36 passing. The Trojans have a playoff berth on the line, and a Heisman favorite at QB. This game looks like it will be a shootout, and the Trojans have more weapons.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Trojans can keep their playoff hopes alive with a win at home over Notre Dame, but this game could be tricky. Just a week after they gave up 45 points in a win over UCLA, we should expect the Irish do get their fair share of points here in LA. This USC defense has been lit up for 30+ points in four of their last five games, but they also have the nation's #3 ranked offense. Notre Dame has a resume propped up by signature wins over #16 Syracuse and #4 Clemson. The Orange had an injury at QB, and they had home field against the Tigers. Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison present a whole different challenge than DJ Uiagalelei and the Tigers. Look for USC to win a shootout here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on USC.

The Trojans can keep their playoff hopes alive with a win at home over Notre Dame, but this game could be tricky. Just a week after they gave up 45 points in a win over UCLA, we should expect the Irish do get their fair share of points here in LA. This USC defense has been lit up for 30+ points in four of their last five games, but they also have the nation's #3 ranked offense. Notre Dame has a resume propped up by signature wins over #16 Syracuse and #4 Clemson. The Orange had an injury at QB, and they had home field against the Tigers. Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison present a whole different challenge than DJ Uiagalelei and the Tigers. Look for USC to win a shootout here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Vandy.

There are "dream crusher" spots, and then there is the situation that the Vols find themselves in. Not only did their playoff hopes go up in smoke with a blowout loss to an inferior team last week, but they lost their starting QB and Heisman candidate Hendon Hooker for the rest of the season. Then we have Vandy, fresh off an upset win over Florida. We really have no idea what to expect from Tennessee here, but you can bet your ass that Vandy is gonna bring it! Don't be surprised if the Commodores win outright.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Utah Utes rank 1st in the Pac12 in total defense, and they are allowing 20 points per game this season. Oregon State comes in allowing 20.3 points per game. The Beavers at home though are borderline elite defensively. This was evident when they held USC to a season low 17 points, and Caleb Williams to just 180 yards on 16-of-36 passing in late September. Bo Nix was playing on one leg last week, but the Ducks got the win 20-17 over Utah behind a strong effort from the defense. The under is 11-4 in the Ducks last 15 road games, and the under is 5-1 in the Beavers last six home games versus a team with a winning road record.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over. 

The Tar Heels have a high powered offense and a Heisman contender at QB, but they rank dead last in the ACC against the pass. Freshman QB MJ Morris has proven he can move the ball against below average defenses, throwing for 475 yards and six TDs in wins over Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. The Wolfpack had a bit of a let down last week against Boston College, but expect them to be better in this rivalry game. The over is 20-8 in the Tar Heels last 28 versus a team with a winning record. Expect both teams to do their share of scoring in what should be a great game. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Tulane.

Can you believe that the defending conference champs are getting almost no respect from bookmakers here against Tulane? Well there is a good reason for that. The Bearcats lost a ton of talent from last year's historic Playoff team. They rank near the bottom of the AAC in rushing, only Temple averages fewer yards per game. That could hurt them here in a huge game against the #1 defense in the conference. That's especially true because there is some uncertainty at the QB position. The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games, and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine conference games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Ole Miss ran for 463 yards, and gained a total of 703 yards in a loss (yeah that's right) to Arkansas last week. They also gave up over 500 yards to the Hogs, and 335 yards on the ground. They face a Mississippi State team in the Egg Bowl that doesn't run much, but Will Rogers did throw for 336 yards in a losing effort versus the Rebels last year. The Rebels have gone over in five of their last six overall, and the over is 4-1 in their last five coming off a loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a free play on Hawaii.

The final home game for the Rainbow Warriors, and they are 2-2 in their last four at home. They only lost by a combined 14 points to Mountain West powerhouses Wyoming and Utah State. They are getting double digits here at home against a UNLV team riding a five game losing skid. Don't even get me started by telling me the Rebels need to run the table to become bowl eligible, such a laughable talking point when a team has lost five straight. The Rainbow Warriors out-gained the Aggies 541-374 in total yards last week, but lost the turnover battle 4-0. I am gonna go out on a limb here and call for the outright win for Hawaii.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Utah.

This is a "Dream Crusher" situation for the Ducks after getting knocked out of the College Football Playoffs by Washington last week. I don't automatically bet against teams in this spot, but when combined with the matchup, facing a Utah team that beat them handily twice last season (38-7 and 38-10) and the fact that Utah ranks #1 in the PAC12 in total defense, I can't ignore it. Then on top of all that, Bo Nix who has been a big part of the running game (14 rushing TDs) has a bad knee and might not play. A lot of people fall victim of a logical fallacy when it comes to injury news, thinking that there are only two possible outcomes: He will play, or he won't play. In fact there are several possible outcomes to consider. One of those is that he plays, and he isn't 100 percent and thus isn't very effective. I think that scenario is a likely one.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Iowa.

At first glance you have Minnesota (7-3) hosting Iowa (6-4) and you might assume the home team has the edge. These teams are currently trending in opposite directions though, with Iowa coming off three straight double digit wins. The Hawkeyes are still undervalued after struggling on offense early in the season. They are by no means an offensive juggernaut, but their defense is so good that even a pedestrian effort on the other side of the ball makes them formidable. The Hawkeyes are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six versus the Gophers, and they have covered in four of their last five at Minnesota.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Liberty.

So Liberty had a huge win over Arkansas, and then suffered a let down last week in a loss to UCONN. They host Virginia Tech this week, and the Hokies have lost seven straight. If Virginia Tech is going to get up for any game, it would be their final home game against Virginia. This week looks like a flat spot for the Hokies, and an opportunity for Hugh Freeze to bolster his resume. The Flames are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games, and the Hokies are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Illinois.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score. It seems like 17.5 points is a big number in a bad weather game between the #1 and #3 ranked defenses. You also have the look ahead spot for the Wolverines, who have a huge game against Ohio State on deck.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule