This is a 4* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

So TCU scored just 17 points on 289 total yards in a win at Texas last week. Their defense was impressive, holding Texas to 10 points on 199 total yards. The question is, did Texas give Dave Aranda the blueprint for slowing down the Horned Frogs offense? I think Baylor has to try to replicate what Texas did, slowing down this game and limiting the possessions. Blake Shapen threw for 203 yards and two INTs on 22-38 passing last week, so don't expect him to be slinging it around the yard this week. I expect to see both teams favor the run in bad weather, resulting in time coming off the clock.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Tulane.

I like the Green Wave to bounce back after a terrible home loss to UCF. They face a completely different opponent here this week. The Knights gashed them on the ground for 336 yards and four TDs, with John Rhys Plumlee doing much of the damage. Tanner Mordecai isn't going to do that this week, as it's more a matchup of strength versus strength. The Mustangs high powered passing attach runs into the Tulane defense that ranks 1st in the AAC against the pass allowing just 175 yards per game. The Mustangs are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games, and they have failed to cover in 14 of their last 20 in the month of November.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Traditionally midweek MAC games have been high scoring. I am betting against that trend continuing here on Wednesday night. The weatherman says to expect rain, snow and wind. The wind is the most significant factor. High winds make kicking field goals a tricky proposition, prompting more fourth down attempts, eventually leading to empty drives. When the passing game is off the table, the clock keeps ticking with every running play. The Broncos have failed to reach the total in four straight overall, and five straight when coming off a loss.

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Traditionally midweek MAC games have been high scoring. I am betting against that trend continuing here on Wednesday night. The weatherman says to expect rain, snow and wind. The wind is the most significant factor. High winds make kicking field goals a tricky proposition, prompting more fourth down attempts, eventually leading to empty drives. When the passing game is off the table, the clock keeps ticking with every running play. The Red Hawks have gone under in five of their last six MAC games, and they have failed to reach the total in five straight road games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

Traditionally midweek MAC games have been high scoring. I am betting against that trend continuing here on Wednesday night. The weatherman says to expect rain, snow and wind. The wind is the most significant factor. High winds make kicking field goals a tricky proposition, prompting more fourth down attempts, eventually leading to empty drives. When the passing game is off the table, the clock keeps ticking with every running play. The Golden Flashes have gone under in six of their last seven MAC games, and the under is 6-2 in their last eight versus Eastern Michigan.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Ohio.

The Bobcats have won five straight, and they are 5-1 in the MAC. Nathan Rourke leads the conference in passing with 3.087 yards, 24 TDs and 4 INTs. Ball State ranks dead last in the MAC in rushing defense, and they lost their last home game by a score of 20-16 to Eastern Michigan. The Cardinals are 17-35 ATS in their last 52 home games, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five versus a team with a winning record. Ohio has won all three meetings versus Ball State since 2012.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

Did you know it snows in Nevada? Maybe not in Las Vegas but snow is actually pretty common in Reno. The forecast is calling for snow and -5 temps in a late game in Reno here on Saturday night. Boise State doesn't have much of a passing game with QB Taylen Green (6 TD, 4 INT). We've seen the total go under in six of Nevada's last eight home games in the month of November, and these two teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last eight head to head meetings. Not surprising considering Nevada ranks 119th nationally in passing (176 yards per game).

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Texas.

The Horned Frogs are 9-0 and currently eyeing a spot in the College Football Playoffs. I've been waiting for a spot to go against them for weeks now, as they have been getting it done with smoke and mirrors. Wins over Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma State all came against opponents with an injured starting quarterback. They overcame double digit deficits versus the Cowboys and the Wildcats, and they figure to be down early here in Texas. I guess all the sharps are seeing the same thing here, and TCU is shaping up to be one of this season's biggest "square dogs". The line of -7 has 70% of the public backing TCU, but the big money is on Texas. This is reminiscent of UCLA vs Oregon, Penn State vs Michigan and Tennessee vs Georgia. I like Texas to win in a rout here, but taking the Horns for the first half might be the best way to attack this line.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MISST.

The Bulldogs could be due for a let down after their huge win over Tennesssee, and they are asked to cover a big number on the road at Mississippi State. The (MISST) Bulldogs are 5-0 at home this season, and the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five head to head meetings. Georgia is 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a ATS win. The (MISST) Bulldogs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in November.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Tulane.

It's 2022, and in this season the Tulane Green Wave have been the better team. That's not really debatable. Despite coming in with an 8-1 overall record and a 5-0 conference record, they are close to a pickem here at home versus UCF. The Knights have name recognition, and the bigger brand. Starting QB John Rhys Plumlee was sidelined by a concussion last week, and Mikey Keene was solid throwing for 219 yards, three TDs and an INT of 22-of-28 passing in a 35-28 win over Memphis. We expect Plumlee back this week, but he runs into the #11 ranked Tulane defense that is allowing under 17 points per game. The Knights are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win, while the Green Wave are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Tulane.

It's 2022, and in this season the Tulane Green Wave have been the better team. That's not really debatable. Despite coming in with an 8-1 overall record and a 5-0 conference record, they are close to a pickem here at home versus UCF. The Knights have name recognition, and the bigger brand. Starting QB John Rhys Plumlee was sidelined by a concussion last week, and Mikey Keene was solid throwing for 219 yards, three TDs and an INT of 22-of-28 passing in a 35-28 win over Memphis. We expect Plumlee back this week, but he runs into the #11 ranked Tulane defense that is allowing under 17 points per game. The Knights are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win, while the Green Wave are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Alabama is in uncharted territory, with two regular season losses and presumably eliminated from the college football playoff. A lot of people talk about Alabama being 5-0 ATS coming off a loss, but I am not sure those trends are relevant here in a "dream crusher" scenario. They have been terrible on the road all year, including a 52-49 loss at Tennessee. The Vols had 567 total yards in that game, and it's interesting that Ole Miss presents a similar challenge when it comes to pace of play. When these teams met last year the total was set at 80, and the bookmakers set the total over 70 in three of the last four meetings. The Rebels have gone over the number in four straight games, and I expect both teams to score their fair share here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is 4* play on under.

Clemson was exposed by Notre Dame last week, but they return home to face a Louisville team that they have owned in recent years. The Tigers are 7-0 straight up in seven meetings since 2014. They will have their hands full with this Cardinals defense, that ranks 4th nationally in sacks per game. DJ Uiagalelei has been sacked 10 times in his last four starts, and he's looked pretty bad when under pressure. Clemson has failed to cover in nine of their last 12 home games. You look back to their most recent home game and they were quite lucky to sneak past Syracuse, scoring 17 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to win 27-21. Don't be surprised if the Cardinals give them a similar challenge.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is 4* play on LOU.

Clemson was exposed by Notre Dame last week, but they return home to face a Louisville team that they have owned in recent years. The Tigers are 7-0 straight up in seven meetings since 2014. They will have their hands full with this Cardinals defense, that ranks 4th nationally in sacks per game. DJ Uiagalelei has been sacked 10 times in his last four starts, and he's looked pretty bad when under pressure. Clemson has failed to cover in nine of their last 12 home games. You look back to their most recent home game and they were quite lucky to sneak past Syracuse, scoring 17 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to win 27-21. Don't be surprised if the Cardinals give them a similar challenge.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Maryland couldn't get anything going offensively in a bad weather game at Wisconsin last week. Taulia Tagovailoa threw for just 77 yards with a TD and an INT on 10-of-23 passing in a 23-10 loss. It's expected to be another cold and windy winter day at Beaver Stadium Saturday. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last eight meetings, and the under is 4-0 in the last four at University Park.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Iowa.

The Hawkeyes are not the sexiest team in the BIG10, and because of that it's difficult to get anyone to want to bet on them. Perhaps that explains why they are a dog here in a game that they should be a 2-3 point favorite. The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, and they have failed to cover in five of their last six coming off a win. The home team is 4-1 straight up in the last five head to head meetings, and the Badgers lost by 21 in their last visit to Iowa (2020).

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Illinois

Illinois inexplicably lost to Michigan State last week, despite a 441-294 edge in total yards, and a 25-17 edge in first downs. They are in a good spot here at home against Purdue, a team that is reeling after back to back losses to Iowa and Wisconsin. Aidan O'Connell threw five INTs and just one TD pass in those games. He faces the nation's #1 ranked scoring defense in bad weather on the road this week. These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight head to head meetings, and the Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

Illinois inexplicably lost to Michigan State last week, despite a 441-294 edge in total yards, and a 25-17 edge in first downs. They are in a good spot here at home against Purdue, a team that is reeling after back to back losses to Iowa and Wisconsin. Aidan O'Connell threw five INTs and just one TD pass in those games. He faces the nation's #1 ranked scoring defense in bad weather on the road this week. These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight head to head meetings, and the Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The South Florida Bulls fired their head coach after a drubbing at Temple last week. They gave up 54 points to the 119th ranked offense in the country (after scoring 54). On the bright side, Katravis Marsh threw for 176 yards and three TDs. He's thrown for 649 yards, 6 TDs and just one INT since taking over at QB. SMU comes in ranked Top 5 in the nation in passing, and Top 10 in scoring. The over is 12-1 in the Bulls last 13 home games, and they have gone over in 11 of their last 13 coming off a loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Ohio.

The Bobcats have won four straight, and Kurtis Rourke threw five TD passes in a home win over Buffalo last week. Miami Ohio is coming off a win over Akron, despite a 316-184 edge in total yards for the Zips. Akron handed the game to the Redhawks with three turnovers. This game features the best offense in the MAC versus the last place offense in the MAC. The RedHawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win, while Ohio has covered in five straight overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Clemson.

All Clemson has done is beat everybody in front of them. A far closer game than expected against Syracuse has some doubting Dabo and company. DJ Uigalelei was not sharp against the  Orange, and he was yanked for Cade Klubnik in the win over Syracuse. The Tigers have had plenty of time to get their house in order during a bye week, and they might not need their QB to be great in a game played in bad weather. The matchup favors Clemson, with the #1 ranked run defense in the ACC allowing just 87 rushing yards per game. No luck for the Irish this week.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on LSU.

If you're betting Alabama as a double digit road favorite, you must have missed their three road games this season. You know, the game they should have and would have lost at Texas if not for a phantom targeting penalty that negated a safety. Or when they won and covered at Arkansas but were leading by less than a TD in the fourth quarter. Or how about giving up 52 points at Tennessee? This is Death Valley at night, against a team that you beat at home last year by a score of 20-14. The Tigers will need a big game from Jayden Daniels if they are gonna hang with Alabama, but he's coming off three straight games completing over 70% of his passes, with six TDs and just one pick in those contests. He also ran for 165 yards and six TDs in his last two starts. I'll take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Houston.

Say what you want about Houston. I would be the first to admit that they have been disappointing this season. Yeah their defense has been bad, really effing bad. That said they come into this game riding a three game winning streak, and they are still in play for the conference title. The Mustangs defense ranks even worse than Houston, allowing 424 yards per game. Clayton Tune is starting to heat up, throwing for over 1,000 yards with 12 TDs and just one INT in his last three starts. I'll take the points in a game that I expect to be a shootout, and give me the better QB, better program and more high end talent up and down the lineup. ALL DAY!

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Tennessee.

Maybe the Vols are a square dog, but isn't that what they said before they dropped 52 on Nick Saban and Alabama. We haven't seen UGA really tested this year, but Tennessee presents a unique challenge. It's going to be tough to stop for a Georgia defense that ranks 120th nationally in quarterback sacks, and even tougher without their best pass rusher. I like the Vols to start fast in the first half, and even if they can't hang on for the outright win, they look good to cover this number.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Indiana ranks dead last in the BIG10 in rushing, so if the weather prevents them from having success in the passing game they are going to be in big trouble. They lost 24-0 at Penn State last year, and another low score seems likely here. The under is 8-2 in the Nittany Lions last 10 games in November, and the Hoosiers have failed to reach the total in four of their last five in the BIG10.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on USF.

South Florida must suck, I mean look at their record. They are 1-7 overall, sitting dead last in the American. Well take a look at their schedule. Three of their losses came against teams ranked in the Top 25, and the other four all came against teams with a winning record. They lost by a FG on the road at Florida, and lost by four at home versus the Cincinnati Bearcats. Temple can't use their schedule as an excuse, they simply are bad, very bad! EJ Warner (Kurts' boy) has thrown twice as many picks (8) as TDs (4) in his last five starts. He doesn't get a lot of help from his offensive line. Since coming in at QB for USF, Katravius March has thrown for 473 yards, 3 TDs and NO PICKS! I like the Bulls to get a feel good win here against an inferior opponent.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

Everybody knows that midweek games in the MAC can often be high scoring, and because of that the total for this game is almost at 60. In fact it's six points higher than the last time Buffalo Played in Athens. Only once in the last six head to head meetings has the listed total been higher than 55 points. Even given the much lower totals, only one of the last five head to head meetings reached the number. Buffalo ranks second in the MAC in scoring defense allowing 24 points per game. The under is 4-1 in the Bobcats last five conference games, and the under is 7-2 in the Bulls last nine games following a straight up win.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Kentucky.

The Wildcats are 5-2 and the average margin of defeat in their two losses was 6.5 points. The will be a double digit dog here at Tennesse, after last season's meeting went down to the wire with the Vols winning 45-42. Will Levis threw for 372 yards and three TDs on 31-of-49 passing in that game, and Chris Rodriguez ran for 109 yards on 22 carries. Levis didn't play in the loss to the Gamecocks, but coming off a bye week the Wildcats should be ready to go to battle with their rivals Tennessee. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams, and the road team has covered in six of the last seven.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Navy.

The Midshipmen struggle to defend the pass, and that has cost them against the likes of Houston and SMU. This week they are at home against a Temple offense that ranks 104th nationally in passing. Kurt Warner's boy (E.J.) has completed roughly 50 percent of his passes, and has as many picks (7) as he does TDs. Making matters worse for Temple, they have given up a combined 603 rushing yards in their last two games. Navy can still run the ball, and facing a team with low level talent that struggles to stop the run should be an ideal situation here. Navy won 38-14 at Temple last year, and the Owls might expect a similar result here in Annapolis.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Wake.

Louisville is coming off back to back wins, and they are 3-1 in their last four games. So have they turned their season around, or have they simply benefited from playing inferior opposition? I think it's the latter. They beat Pitt 24-10 last week, despite fewer total yards, first downs and time of possession. Pitt QB Kedon Slovis threw for 158 yards and a pair of INTs on 16-of-29 passing. Sam Hartman is in town, and he's thrown for 1,755 yards 21 TDs and just three INTs so far this season. There is a huge gap in talent between the two teams, and that should be evident here on Saturday.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

Northwestern comes into Iowa on a six game losing streak, scoring an average of just 16.5 points per game in those losses. This Iowa defense is better than any they have faced this season, and you really have to wonder how the Wildcats could possibly score a TD here. It's likely more likely that their defense record a pick-six than it is for their offense to punch one in. Iowa's offense is historically bad, so it could be a busy day for kickers. These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight meetings, and they combined for an average of less than 30 points in those games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on K-State.

The Horned Frogs upset Oklahoma, dropping 55 points on the Sooners three weeks ago. They have climbed into the Top 10 in the polls after winning back to back games since. Wins over Oklahoma State and Kansas were close, and they came back after trailing by a double digit margin at home last week against the Cowboys. It looks like just a matter of time before the bubble bursts for this undefeated TCU team, and this week's game against K-State looks like a challenging spot. The Wildcats are coming off a bye, and they have all the tools required to cause problems for the Horned Frogs. Weather could be a factor with high winds expected, and that favors the Wildcats with the power running game of Deuce Vaughn and Adrian Martinez. I'll take the points with a K-State team that has won three straight head to head, and has covered in six of their last seven versus TCU.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on CUSE.

The Orange are undefeated, with quality wins over NC State (last week), Purdue and Louisville. They will be a double digit dog on the road at Clemson, and I think the Tigers have become overrated. As good as Clemson is, they have dealt with a tough schedule heading into this game, and the bubble could be about to burst. Wins over NC State, Wake Forest and Florida State all came by 10 points or fewer. This is the best Syracuse team we have see for decades, but in recent years the Orange have played Clemson really tough. The Tigers won by just a field goal at the Carrier Dome last year, and Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. They won outright 27-24 back in 2017. Roberta Anae has the offense firing on all cylinders, Sean Tucker is a beast in the backfield. The Orange aren't getting enough respect in this spot.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Houston.

The Cougars have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country this season, coming out of their bye week with a 3-3 record. Losing to Kansas and Tulane might not be as bad is it looked at the time, as both teams managed to make it into the AP Top 25. This team has the talent and experience to rally after the bye week and turn their season around. Playing at Navy looks like a favorable matchup for the Cougars, especially when they had extra time to prepare for the Triple-Option. The Midsphipmen have been lit up by opposing QBs, and Clayton Tune and Nathaniel Dell should have their way here in Annapolis. Tune threw for 366 yards and three TDs on 35-of-57 passing in the win over Memphis two weeks ago. Dell caught 10 passes for 81 yards and a TD. Navy doesn't have an answer for that kind of talent.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Cincinnati.

The bye week came at a good time for the Bearcats. Senior QB Ben Bryant suffered a concussion in the win over South Florida, but he should be good to go after having plenty of time to recover. SMU is coming off a win over Navy, crushing bettors by allowing the Midshipmen to march down the field and score a TD in the final seconds to get the back door cover. A week after John Rhys Plumlee threw for 316 yards and a pair of TDs, Navy's Tai Lavatai threw a pair of TD passes against this Mustangs defense. The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, they have failed to cover in four straight conference games and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. It looks like a tough matchup for the Mustangs.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on UTAH.

The 6-0 Trojans might be overvalued here as they get set for their toughest game so far. They have played two road games, and they were fortunate to win the turnover battle 8-0 in those games. Even with the Oregon State Beavers turning the ball over four times in Corvallis, the Trojans were lucky to come from behind and score a late TD to win that game. The Trojans also got help from the officials, who refused to call obvious holding penalties on the Trojans offensive line. The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Utah, and they have failed to cover in seven of their last nine versus the PAC12. The Utes have covered in five straight off a loss, and they are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 conference games. All the breaks have been in favor of USC so far, but YOU KNOW that's it's only a matter of time before they experience regression to the mean.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Clemson.

The Tigers are 6-0 with a pair of wins over ranked teams. One of those wins came on the road at Wake Forest. That same Demon Deacons team went into Tallahassee and beat the Seminoles by double digits. Clemson beat FSU by a score of 30-20 last year, and the Tigers are 6-0 straight up against FSU dating back to 2014. Clemson has improved, especially on offense since last season. DJ Uiagalelei has thrown for 1,462 yards, 14 TDs and just two INTs. The Seminoles are coming off back to back losses, and Jordan Travis has struggled in those games. Injuries have piled up for Florida State, and that's going to make it tough to hang with the best team in the ACC. The Seminoles are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss. I'll take Clemson.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Tennessee.

The Crimson Tide just barely escaped with a 24-20 win over Texas A&M last week. It was the second time this season that Alabama was pushed to the brink in a game that went right down to the wire. You know what they say: "If you play with fire, you're gonna get burned". Playing on the road at Tennessee might be their toughest test so far, and we don't yet know if QB Bryce Young will be able to play. He's likely to suit up, but unlikely to be 100 percent healthy. The Vols lost 52-24 at Alabama last year, but they were within a single score in the 4th quarter before Alabama scored the game's final 21 points. Hendon Hooker threw for 282 yards and three TDs on 19-of-28 passing in a losing effort. The Vols are in a great spot here to avenge that loss, and I won't be surprised to see them get the upset.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on CUSE.

So the Orange are 5-0, but that's not why I like them as a home favorite versus NC State this week. This just sets up as a great spot for the Orange coming off a bye, and the Wolfpack potentially without their QB. If Devin Leary can play, he sure as sh!t isn't going to be 100 percent. The Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, and they are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Orange are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. Robert Anai has turned this offense into a more efficient unit, and it should be good enough here against a banged up NC State team.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on PSU.

It's tough to get a read on just how good this Michigan team actually is. I've heard a lot of pundits talk about how good their defense is, but when you start quoting stats you need to realize they have only played one team that ranks better than 98th nationally in total offense. That was Maryland, who they beat at home by a score of 34-27. Penn State comes in off a bye week, and they should be ready to get down and dirty here. Unlike the Wolverines, Penn State has played Power Five teams on the road and passed the test. They beat Auburn by 29 points on the road, while #1 ranked Georgia beat Auburn by 32 at home. This game will answer a lot of questions for both teams, but asking the Wolverines to cover a big spread seems like a bit of a stretch when they still haven't played anybody. I'll take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on NC State.

So who's in a let down spot here? The Wolfpack are coming off a double digit loss at Clemson, while the Seminoles are coming off a double digit loss at home to Wake Forest. The good news for NC State is at least they are healthy, while FSU has been decimated by injuries. History certainly favors the home team, as the Seminoles are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Raleigh, and they are 3-17-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings overall. The Wolfpack are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games, and they have covered in seven straight coming off a loss. They are the better team, and I expect them to prove it here versus FSU.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on BYU.

So the 4-1 Cougars ranked #16 in the country are actually an underdog in a neutral site game against unranked 2-2 Notre Dame. So clearly Vegas is telling us that the Irish are the better team? Better where exactly? Drew Pyne looked great against North Carolina last week, but he hasn't proved anything against any top defenses. Jaren Hall comes in with 1,438 yards a dozen TDs and just one INT, and he's faced two ranked opponents. The knock on BYU is that they lost by 20 on the road at Oregon, a week after they beat a Top 10 ranked Baylor team at home in double overtime. The Cougars have been without their top two WR Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney for most of the season, but both should be good to go for Saturday's game. In my mind this is a matchup between one of the most underrated teams of the past decade (BYU) and one of the most overrated teams of the past decade (Notre Dame). The most impressive thing I've seen from Notre Dame this season is losing to Ohio State by just 11. I expect the Cougars to win this game outright, but I certainly don't see them losing by more than a FG.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Utah.

So the 4-1 Utah Utes are road chalk against a 5-0 UCLA Bruins game? Well that's one way to look at it. The other way to look at it is that UCLA ranks 129th in FBS in strength of schedule. Utah would be sitting at 5-0 if it wasn't for a potential game winning drive ending in an interception in the endzone. Since then Cam Rising has thrown for 12 TDs and just one INT in four straight wins. Utah is a proven commodity, when it comes to talent, experience, and coaching. UCLA is an unproven team with a coach that hasn't been relevant in over a decade. The recipe for success for Utah should be to keep UCLA's offense on the sideline, and their defense on the field. They are certainly equipped to do just that.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Tennessee.

At first glance it might be tempting to take LSU as a home dog here, but I think this situation sets up nicely for the Vols. Tennessee should benefit from an extra week to rest and prepare for this game, while the Tigers are banged up coming off a lucky win over Auburn. Jayden Daniels threw for just 80 yards on 8-of-20 passing versus Auburn, and he's thrown just one TD pass in his last three starts. That's not going to get it done against the high flying Vols offense and Hendon Hooker. The Vols weakness is their secondary, but LSU doesn't appear to have the tools to exploit that. The Tigers strength is their running game, and the Vols have been pretty damn good at defending the run. The early start also favors the visitors, as Death Valley at night is no picnic. My money is on Tennessee to keep rolling.

GL.

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Texas.

Oklahoma is in tough here in the Red River Rivalry, with their starting QB banged up and a defense that can't stop anybody. Texas should get QB Quinn Ewers back this week, and he will be licking his chops with a chance to face this Sooners defense. The Horned Frogs racked up 668 yards last week in a 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma last Saturday. This is a situation where little brother (Texas), finally has a shot to embarrass big brother (Oklahoma). The Longhorns are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games, and they have covered in seven of their last 10 Red River Rivalry games. The Sooners aren't saying much about Dylan Gabriel, but it would be a surprise if he's able to get back on the field this week.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DUKE.

The Blue Devils are coming off their first loss of the season on the road at Kansas. They gained 463 yards of offense and QB Riley Leonard threw for 324 yards and a TD on 24-of-35 passing in the loss. They return home to host Virginia, a team that appears to be in disarray. Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong was held to 138 yards with a TD and an INT on 19-of-38 passing in the loss to Syracuse last week. While it appeared to be a close game, the Orange actually dominated total yards, first downs and time of possession. This is a huge revenge game for Duke, after losing 48-0 at Virginia last year. These programs have trended in the opposite direction since, and the Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Duke.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MISST.

Offensive futility has been the theme for the Aggies so far this season, and losing their leading WR Senior Ainias Smith for the rest of the season is going to make matters worse. They were quite lucky that Arkansas missed a 42 yard FG in the last two minutes of last week's 22-20 home win. They were on the wrong side of total yards, first downs and time of possession in that game. They are on the road for the first time this week, and it might be a tough ask to hang with the Bulldogs in Starkville. Will Rogers ranks second nationally in passing with 1386 yards (two yards fewer than Michael Penix). Rogers had a monster game at College Station last year, throwing for 408 yards and three TDs on 46-of-59 passing in a 26-22 win. The Aggies played three true road games last season, and lost two of them. They have failed to cover in four of their last five road games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Kansas.

Stop asking if Kansas is for real! That's not a real question anymore. They beat Duke, West Virginia and Houston, and they scored an average of 46 points in those games. Cyclones QB Hunter Dekkers has thrown more picks than TDs in conference play so far. Playing on the road in Lawrence against a team that puts points on the board in a hurry isn't an ideal spot for this Iowa State offense. Jalon Daniels comes in completing over 70 percent of his passes for 890 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. He's lighting it up, and it's no longer sensible to say: "He hasn't played anybody". I like Kansas to extend their winning streak here, but even if they are down by 10 late, this is a team that is fully capable of getting that late TD in garbage time for a back door cover.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Baylor.

This Baylor team has proved itself, last week on the road at Iowa State, and even in a losing effort on the road at BYU. I don't think it's fair to say that Oklahoma State has proven anything so far. All three of their games were at home against inferior opponents. They gave up 44 points to a MAC team in Week 1. They beat Arizona State, but the Sun Devils lost by a similar score to a MAC team the following week. They come into this, their first road game of the season off a blowout win over Arkansas Pine Bluff. The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games, and they owned the Cowboys in the BIG12 Championship Game last year. Spencer Saunders threw for 257 yards, no TDs and 4 INTs in that game. Blake Shapen three for three TDs in that game, and he's picked up right where he left off. He's completed almost 70 percent of his passes for 773 yards with 7 TDs and just one INT so far this season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Illinois.

The Badgers are asked to cover a big number here at home when you consider that they are 0-2 versus Power Five schools. Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz threw for just 94 yards, 1 TD and an INT on 11-of-20 passing against Ohio State last week. Illinois comes in with a 2-1 record, and a defense that ranks Top 10 nationally allowing just eight points per game. While this will be their toughest test yet, they looked pretty good completely shutting down Virginia and Wyoming. If it wasn't for blowing a lead in the final seconds at Indiana, this team would be 4-0. Brett Bielema's team has the nation's leading rusher Chase Brown, and in a game that could be a war of attrition he could be a real factor. The under is 11-3 in the Fighting Illini last 14 games overall, and another low scoring close game should be expected in Madison.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Middle Tennessee is coming of a stunning upset as a 25 point underdog at Miami, winning that game outright by a score of 45-31. This might set them up for a let down on Friday night against UTSA. The Roadrunners are 2-2 with a pair of losses to ranked teams. Both these teams can score in a hurry, and neither team has inspired much confidence on defense. To put it into perspective, the Roadrunners gave up over 300 passing yards to Army (yes Army). The Blue Raiders allowed 44 points and six passing TDs in a loss to a an FCS team in Week 1. The over is 10-1 in the Roadrunners last 11 games overall, and they have gone over in seven straight road games. I see both these teams scoring 30+ here in this game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Oregon State.

The Beavers are no joke at home, just ask Utah. The Utes lost in Corvallis last year, their only loss in conference play. The Beavers also won at USC last year, and now they are getting points as a home dog in this year's rematch. The Trojans won big as a home favorite versus Fresno State last week, but the Bulldogs played half of that game without QB Jake Haener. The Trojans are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games at Oregon State, and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. The Beavers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Expect this to be shootout, last team with the ball wins. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on ARK.

So I had the Aggies last week, and they won and covered at home versus Miami. So Texas A&M is back right? You know what Lee Corso would say... Not so fast my friends. Jimbo Fisher still has plenty of problems with this offense, and last week they got quite lucky against the Hurricanes. Miami had a 392-264 edge in total yards, and a 27-16 edge in first downs. Max Johnson stepped in at QB for the Aggies and threw for 140 yards and a TD on just 10-of-20 passing. That just won't cut it against an Arkansas team that can put points on the board. The Razobacks come in averaging 38 points per game, and it's not like they haven't played anybody. They impressed in wins over Cincinnati and South Carolina. KJ Jefferson has thrown for 770 yards, six TDs and one INT, and he's ran for 169 yards and three TDs. If the Aggies play the way they did against Miami, they will likely lose this game by double digits.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Kansas.

Neither Kansas or Duke were supposed to be undefeated at this point, and most will wonder if these teams are for real. Duke has just one real victory they can hang their hat on, and that's a 31-23 win at Northwestern. When the Wildcats lost at home to Southern Illinois the following week, the strength of that win diminished. Kansas on the other hand has won back to back road games against Power Five teams, scoring over 100 points combined in those games. This team ranks in the Top 10 nationally scoring 51 points per game. It seems like a tough ask for Duke to do what West Virginia and Houston failed to do. The Blue Devils are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on West Virginia.

The Mountaineers lost back to back games to start the season, but in Week 1 they lost a close game on the road against a ranked Pitt team, and then they were upset in a shootout at home versus Kansas. This Virginia Tech team doesn't have near the offensive prowess that either of those teams possess. The Hokies offense ranks 174th nationally averaging just 23 points per game, and QB Grant Wells has thrown as many picks as he has TDs. What's most concerning about those stats is that they haven't really played anybody. Last week they scored just 27 points against Wofford, failing to cover as a -38 point favorite. The Hokies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win, and they have failed to cover in six straight non conference games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Aggies.

So the Aggies lose last week to App State, and now Jimbo Fisher is on the hot seat. Keep in mind that Miami played App State last year and won by just two points. I definitely think that people are overreacting to the loss to the Mountaineers. A change at QB might help the Aggies turn things around here at home versus Miami. The Hurricanes are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games, and they have failed to cover in six of their last eight coming off a win. The Aggies are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 non-conference games. I expect a far better showing from the Aggies this week.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on NC State.

Texas Tech is in a tough spot here this week, playing on the road in Raleigh off a double overtime win over Houston. They also have Texas on deck next week, which could prove to be a distraction here against the Wolfpack. While Donovan Smith has played well for the Red Raiders, he's up against a fourth year starter that may well be playing on Sundays in a year or two. Devin Leary has picked up where he left off last season when he threw for 3,433 yards, 35 TDs and just 5 INTs. The Red Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. The Wolfpack are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Oregon.

The Ducks stock crashed after losing 49-3 to Georgia in Week 1, but I don't think it would be wise to overreact to that result. They were a double digit dog in that game, and Georgia is the #1 ranked team in the country. Last week they got the offense going, scoring 70 points in a home win over Eastern Washington. BYU is coming off an impressive win over Baylor, but this could be a let down spot after a double OT win. The Cougars missed their top two receivers last week, and it's unclear if either Puka Nacua or Gunner Romney will be available on Saturday. This is a game the Ducks are supposed to win, and it's asking a lot for BYU to keep up offensively. The Cougars have failed to cover in four of their last five road games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on FSU.

So Louisville bounced back with a solid win over UCF after getting blown out by Syracuse in their season opener. Or did they? Well that win over Central Florida might say more about the Knights than it does about the Cardinals. Malik Cunningham threw for only 201 yards on less than 50% passing, without a TD. Louisville was lucky to be in the game at halftime, and they were able to come back in the second half. Mike Norvell has this Florida State team firing on all cylinders, and at this point it looks like Jordan Travis is a superior quarterback. The Cardinals are 12-28-1 ATS in their last 41 versus a team with a winning record. The Seminoles have had a bye week to rest and prepare for this game, and I like FSU to get the win on the road in this spot.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on BYU.

The Cougars return almost all the talent they had last year when they won 10 games, including a pair of wins over ranked teams. They only lost twice during the regular season, and one of those losses came by a score of 38-24 at Baylor. That sets up a revenge match here in Provo, and the Bears lost plenty of their talent off last year's roster. The Cougars are tough at home, winning 16 of their last 17 home games straight up. I think Baylor is due to take a major step back this season after overachieving in 2021.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Iowa.

The Hawkeyes are no stranger to winning ugly, but after a 7-3 win over South Dakota State in their season opener, people appear to be overreacting. Now struggling against an FCS team isn't a good look, but what kind of team is South Dakota State. They were the highest scoring team in the MVFC last season, averaging more points per game than North Dakota State (a team that people are likely familiar with). They won 11 games overall, beginning with a 42-23 win over Colorado State. They also won a home game against North Dakota State. The Hawkeyes beat Iowa State by double digits last year. That Cyclones team had Brock Purdy and Breece Hall. The Hawkeyes are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games, and they are 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings in this series.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the Cougars.

Houston was lucky to come from behind and win in overtime at UTSA in Week 1, but their stock has dropped heading into Week 2. They lost 38-21 at home to Texas Tech in Week 1 last year, but then went on to win 11 straight games. This sets them up for a revenge spot here in Lubbock. Clayton Tune threw four INTs in last year's loss to the Red Raiders, and then he only threw six INTs in his next 12 games. I expect Tune to be a lot better this time around, and this Red Raiders defense ranked dead last in the BIG12 against the pass last season. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss, and the Red Raiders are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Tennessee.

The Vols were pretty good last year, and they bring back a lot of talent in 2022. Most notably is their QB Hendon Hooker. The one game that they probably would like back is a home loss to Pitt. Hooker was not sharp, and Kenny Pickett lit up the Vols defense. No more Pickett, and no more Jordan Addison for Pitt. A revenge game for the Vols, and based on what we saw in the Backyard Brawl I don't see Pitt slowing down the Tennessee offense. The Vols scored a combined 107 points in road victories at Kentucky and Missouri last year. It's going to be tough for Slovis to match serves with Hooker.

GL,

Jesse Schule.

This is a 4* play on UTSA.

I bet against the Roadrunners in Week 1, and they almost burned me. I was impressed with the way they played against the Houston Cougars. From a situational standpoint, this looks like a classic let down spot for the Roadrunner, but as Lee Corso would say ... "Not so fast my friend". We shouldn't overthink this. UTSA is by far the more talented team here, and they showed in Week 1 that their offense is still a force to be reckoned with. The Army Black Knights had no answers for Coastal Carolina last week, allowing 38 points on 437 total yards. They should have their hands full here against the Roadrunners. The Roadrunners are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games, and they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Clemson.

While it was a down year for the Tigers in 2021, they still won 10 games and ended the year on a six game winning streak. They struggled to blow out opponents last season, that said they won their final three games by an average margin of 29 points. They opened as a -22 favorite here against Georgia Tech, and that line has been bet up. Still below the key number of 24 I see some value here with the Tigers. Georgia Tech is in trouble this year, losing a ton of talent in the transfer portal. Lets  not kid ourselves about a 14-8 win for Clemson last year, the average margin of victory in the previous three meetings was a whopping 44 points. They are asked to cover just half that here. We already saw #1 ranked Alabama and #3 ranked Georgia win by 40+ in their respective openers. Clemson wants to be in that class.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Utah.

The PAC12 is weak and the SEC is strong. That's the narrative we have heard for the better part of the last decade, and while there is plenty of truth to that sentiment I don't think it applies here. I think if we are being honest with ourselves, we have to come to the conclusion that Utah has superior coaching, a better quarterback, more returning talent on both sides of the ball and all the continuity and stability that goes along with that. Florida on the other hand has a first year head coach with a quarterback that has been inconsistent. The Gators are 0-7 ATS in their last seven non-conference games and they have failed to cover in seven straight overall and four straight at home. This is just a bad matchup for the Gators in Week 1.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Arkansas.

After winning 13 games and becoming the first Group of Five team to make the College Football Playoffs last season, you have to think it’s inevitable that Cincinnati takes a step back in 2022. They lost nine starters to the NFL draft, including their starting quarterback and six defensive starters. They lost 27-6 in the Cotton Bowl versus Alabama, and the Crimson Tide ran for 301 yards on 47 carries in the victory. Playing on the road against an Arkansas team that was #1 in the SEC in rushing last year isn't ideal for the Bearcats. The Razorbacks were 6-1 at home last season, and 5-0 in non conference play. Oh BTW, that Alabama team that held Cincinnati to six points at a neutral site, just barely escaped with a 42-35 home win over Arkansas last year. I just don't think these teams are in the same class, Arkansas is BIGGER, FASTER, STRONGER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Houston.

UTSA won 11 straight games to start last season, and they beat Western Kentucky 49-41 in the C-USA Championship Game. They didn't face a ranked team until they played #24 ranked San Diego State in the Frisco Bowl. They open the season at home versus #24 ranked Houston, and this Cougars team appears to be undervalued. Clayton Tune is back for his senior year after throwing for 3,546 yards, 30 TDs and 10 INTs last year. His top target WR Nathaniel Dell is also coming back in 2022. The Cougars opened as a -6.5 point favorite, and this line has come down a few points. This allows us to make a play on the favorite to win straight up, and I can't see UTSA stopping a legit Heisman contender QB with an experienced offensive line and a stud WR. Dana Holgorsen's team has a real shot at being this season's version of the Cincinnati Bearcats, and I don't think they will allow their season to be derailed in Week 1.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Illinois.

Bret Beliema had everything going in the season opener against Wyoming. Illinois won 38-6, and many pundits have said that this says more about Wyoming than it does about Illinois. I am not sure I agree. Tommy Devito was accurate, throwing for 194 yards and two TDs on 27-of-37 passing. Illinois ran for 260 yards and three TDs, and they didn't turn the ball over. They executed on every level, and that should give them confidence heading into Indiana. It remains to be seen if the Hoosiers have improved after closing last season with eight straight losses. They may well be better, but I can't see it justifying them as a three-point favorite.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Penn State.

At first glance, a Purdue team that won nine games in 2021 looks pretty good as a home underdog versus a Penn State team that was just 7-6 overall last season. Of course the Boilermakers lost star wide receiver David Bell, but that didn't prevent them from beating Tennessee in the Music City Bowl. What's even more concerning for Purdue is the way they played against the bigger more physical teams in the BIG10 last year. They lost at home to Minnesota and Wisconsin, and in both of those losses they scored just 13 points. Adrian O'Connell was sacked a total of eight times in those losses. With the Nittany Lions coming off a down year, and Purdue coming off a breakout season, it's easy to see how recency bias would effect this line. Penn State is 8-0 straight up versus Purdue dating back to 2006, and all of those wins came by more than 3.5 points. Sean Clifford played poorly after getting injured last year, but he's going to be a lot better if he's healthy. The Nittany Lions likely have the better athletes on both sides of the ball. Under James Franklin they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in September, and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 BIG10 games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on NW. 

The Huskers were 3-9 straight up last season, and somehow Scott Frost kept his job. He was aggressive in the transfer portal bringing in a whopping 22 new players. Nebraska has a new quarterback and a new offensive coordinator, but expectations are high heading into 2022. They opened as a 10-point favorite for this Week 0 matchup versus Northwestern, but this line has been bet up several points. I don't think Pat Fitzgerald is getting enough respect in this spot, especially given that this is a huge revenge spot after losing 56-7 at Nebraska last year. While the Wildcats didn't bring in as many high profile transfers as Nebraska, they do bring back a strong offensive line and a deep stable of running backs. Quarterback Ryan Hilinski is back, and if nothing else he has experience. Prior to Nebraska winning big last season, the previous six meetings were all close, decided by an average margin of 5.6 points. Bettors must have short memories to be backing Nebraska as a double digit favorite in their season opener. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on UGA.

The Bulldogs were heavily favored in the SEC Championship game, but Bryce Young threw for 421 yards and three TDs in a 41-24 win for Alabama. With the two teams meeting again in the National Championship game, I am reminded of the words of an infamous American President. "There's an old saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas probably too... that says: fool me once, shame... shame on you. You fool me, you can't get fooled again!" I think what George W Bush was referring to is that it's difficult to get away with the same trick twice. It's not easy to beat a team twice in a season, especially when the other team is the betting favorite. Georgia's defense hald opposing QBs to an average of fewer than 160 passing yards per game before the loss to Alabama. The Bulldogs defense held Michigan QB Cade McNamarra to 106 yards, no TDs and two INTs on 11-of-19 passing in the Orange Bowl.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on KSU.

This looks like a mismatch with the LSU Tigers coming into the Texas Bowl without their starting QB, and an interim head coach. The Wildcats on the other hand are getting back their super senior starting QB Skyler Thompson, and his coach expects big things: "I think he's as healthy as he's been all year, to be honest with you, coming off the couple of injuries that he's had," Klieman said Saturday. "I see no ill effects of anything that has gone on." I'll take KSU as I feel they want this victory more than their opponent.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Arkansas.

Both these team come into this bowl game without their top WR, but that's not going to stop the Razorbacks. Arkansas ranked 3rd in the SEC in rushing averaging 217 rushing yards per game. The same can't be said for the Nittany Lions who ranked at the bottom of the BIG10 in rushing averaging just over 100 yards per game. Only Purdue averaged fewer yards per game than Penn State. This Nittany Lions team lost five of it's last seven games, and they have failed to cover in five of their last six versus SEC teams.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on UGA.

The last thing I am going to do heading into the playoffs is judge these teams based on their last performance. Rather than rush to a judgement influenced by recency bias, I will look at each team's entire body of work. Georgia was by far the best team in the country all year long, and because of that they came into the SEC Championship game as a 7-point favorite versus Alabama. Bryce Young lit them up, with the majority of the damage coming in the second quarter of a 41-24 loss. The Michigan Wolverines are coming off back to back blowout wins over Iowa and Ohio State, but their QB threw more INTs (2) than TDs (1) and failed to throw for 200 yards in either of those games. They don't have a Heisman winner at QB like Alabama, and they could going up against a brick wall if they can't get their running game going. Georgia only allowed three rushing TDs in 13 games this season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Cinci.

The last thing I am going to do heading into the playoffs is judge these teams based on their last performance. Rather than rush to a judgement influenced by recency bias, I will look at each team's entire body of work. Alabama lost to Texas A&M, barely escaped with a win over Florida, and were so close to losing to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Because of that they entered the SEC Championship game as a 7-point underdog. Cincinnati on the hand was consistent every week, finishing 13-0 and becoming the first non Power Five team in the playoffs. The Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games, and they have covered five straight as an underdog. I'll take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on MSU.

The Pittsburgh Panthers won't have star QB Kenny Pickett in the Peach Bowl, and that could be a problem in a game that could likely be a shootout. Pittsburgh's defense ranked 11th in the ACC versus the pass, and the Michigan State offense may be able to take advantage of that. The Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as an underdog, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five bowl games. The Spartans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games, and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight bowl games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Sooners.

I don't think the Sooners brought back Big Game Bob (Stoops) to take an L here in this bowl game. They will play Oregon in the Alamo Bowl, and the Ducks will have outgoing offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead as interim coach. Their best player on defense, and potential first overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft Keyvon Thibideau has opted out of the Alamo Bowl. The Sooners are 6-1 all time versus the Ducks, and they are in better shape ahead of this game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on MIN.

The total for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl is pretty low, and even though both these teams are great defensively, I think we will see closer to 50+ points. Minnesota won six of their last eight games, and they've scored an average of 27 points during that span. Minnesota has been quite successful in recent bowl games, covering in four straight. Most recently they defeated Auburn 31-24 in the Outback Bowl in 2019. I like the Gophers to win in similar fashion here in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.

GL.

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The total for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl is pretty low, and even though both these teams are great defensively, I think we will see closer to 50+ points. Minnesota won six of their last eight games, and they've scored an average of 27 points during that span. Minnesota has been quite successful in recent bowl games, covering in four straight. Most recently they defeated Auburn 31-24 in the Outback Bowl in 2019. I like the Gophers to win in similar fashion here in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.

GL.

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on MISST.

The Bulldogs are a favorite in the Liberty Bowl, and Mike Leach might enjoy lighting up his former team in this bowl game. The Bulldogs won four of their final six games in the SEC, while Texas Tech lost four of their final five games in the BIG12. Texas Tech will have Sonny Cumbie as an interim head coach, and Donovan Smith at QB. Their receiving corpse will be depleted with several injuries and their leading WR opting out. The Red Raiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Bowl games, and they are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

Western Michigan will be a significant favorite here in the Quick Lanes Bowl, and we should see plenty of scoring. The Broncos averaged over 30 points per game this season, and they gave up almost as many. Nevada won't have QB Carson Strong, who opted out as he prepares for the draft. The Wolfpack will also have a running backs coach leading them in this game. The over is 5-2 in the Broncos last seven games overall, and the over is 8-3 in the Wolf Pack's last 11 games overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Georgia State.

The Ball State Cardinals finished 11th in the Mac (out of 12 teams) in total offense. They play a Christmas Day bowl game against Georgia State in Alabama. The Panthers were 7-5 and finished the season on a three game win streak. One of those wins came on the road at Coastal Carolina as a double digit underdog. The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, and they have covered in five of their last six as a favorite. Ball State has failed to cover in four of their last five bowl games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on UCF.

Forida is a better team, with more talent and more resources. They may not be the more motivated team here, and their talent and resources have been decimated by opt outs, and injuries. They are expected to start Emory Jones at QB despite the fact that he has already decided to enter the transfer portal. The Gators won a close game at home 24-21 in their season finale versus FSU to become bowl eligible. They face a UCF team that won five of their final six games. The Gators are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games, and they have failed to cover in six straight non-conference games. The wrong team might be favored here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Over.

The UTSA Road Runners bring a high powered offense into this Bowl Game. They scored 49 points in a win over the Hilltoppers in the C-USA Championship game. They averaged 38 points per game this season, and the over is 5-1 in the Roadrunners last six games overall. San Diego State was a defensive powerhouse in the Mountain West, but they might not be motivated to grind it out on defense in a Bowl Game. The Aztecs have allowed an average of 27 points in their last three bowl games, and two of those went over the total. I expect to see plenty of scoring here in the Frisco Bowl.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Old Dominion.

After a 1-6  start to the season, nobody expected the Monarchs to be playing in a bowl game. They turned things around when Blake Watson stepped up at running back and freshman Hayden Wolff took over at QB. The Monarchs finished the season with five straight wins, and they scored an average of 36 points in those games.  Tulsa will be a big favorite in this game, but in the six games they won this season five of those were decided by seven points or less. The Monarchs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Appalachian State.

Western Kentucky gave up 49 points in a loss to UTSA in the C-USA championship game. The Hilltoppers defense has been torched often this season, and this is not a favorable matchup facing a well rounded App State team. The Hilltoppers can score their share of points, but their defense can't stop anyone. Western Kentucky is 1-6 ATS in their last seven versus Sun Belt teams, and the over 7-3-1 in their last 11 versus teams from that conference. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games, and I expect them to score their fair share here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

5*

This is an 8* play on Army.

The Black Knights have won four of the last five meetings between these two teams, and they are clearly the better team this year. The Midshipmen were just 3-8 with wins over Temple, UCF and Tulsa. Army won eight games, and lost a close game on the road 20-14 at Wisconsin. The Black Knights are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games, and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games in December. They rank second in the nation in rushing averaging over 300 yards per game, and averaged 35 points per game. Navy isn't equipped to keep up with that kind of production.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on UGA. 

This line opened far too low, because the bookmakers know that it's hard to talk the public into betting against Alabama. The Tide really shouldn't be expected to compete here against a Bulldogs team that has steamrolled everything in front of them. This Alabama team just barely beat LSU, Arkansas and Auburn in their last three SEC games. If you take away the name “Alabama”, and just judge them based on their resume this season, they might as well be Florida. The Bulldogs beat the Gators by 27 points. Georgia should win this game by double digits. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on SDSU.

Utah State will play San Diego State in the Mountain West Championship game, and I think the Aggies are biting off more than they can chew. This Utah State team is fresh off a 44-17 home loss to Wyoming two weeks ago, and the Cowboys ran for 362 yards in that game. The last time they faced San Diego State, the Aztecs ran for over 400 yards and won by 31. The Aztecs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games, and they have covered in four of their last five versus Utah State. Three of the last four head to head meetings have gone over the total.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over

Utah State will play San Diego State in the Mountain West Championship game, and I think the Aggies are biting off more than they can chew. This Utah State team is fresh off a 44-17 home loss to Wyoming two weeks ago, and the Cowboys ran for 362 yards in that game. The last time they faced San Diego State, the Aztecs ran for over 400 yards and won by 31. The Aztecs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games, and they have covered in four of their last five versus Utah State. Three of the last four head to head meetings have gone over the total.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on OKST.

The Cowboys beat the Bears 24-14 early in the season, and what stands out to me is that the Bears failed to take advantage of a 3-0 turnover margin. Those turnovers made a blowout look more like a close game. Oklahoma State had an edge in first downs (24-10) and total yards (401-280). History tells us that the Cowboys have had the edge, with the Bears going just 5-11 ATS in the last 16 head to head meetings. The Cowboys are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.

GL,

Jesse Schule

5*

This is an 8* play on Syracuse.

Pittsburgh is the better team here, nobody can argue that point. The fact is that this game isn't all that meaningful for the Panthers, who should be looking ahead to the ACC Championship Game. The Orange on the other hand will have a chance to become bowl eligible with a win in their final home game. They have lost five of their seven games in the ACC, but they have been a completely different team at home compared to on the road. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, and 6-1 ATS in their last six as a home underdog.

GL,

Jesse Schule