NBA Sunday Miami Heat Money Line +300 @ Denver Nuggets @ 8 ET - For those of you that prefer taking the points of course you can do that instead if you wish (currently +8.5 is out there) but I am going with the +300 on the money line here. Note that Miami saw Martin, Strus and Robinson combine for 2 of 23 from the field Thursday. The Heat also had only 2 free throw attempts in the game. Miami also saw Jimmy Butler score just 13 points. All of these insane numbers and yet the Heat still won the game. Wait, you are telling me Denver won and not Miami? Well technically you are 100% correct but the fact is Miami won the game from the field despite those numbers above. Indeed the Nuggets scored 14 more points than the Heat from the free throw line. This means that Miami (104-93 losers in Game 1) actually won the game by 3 points from the field. When I look at this series I feel certain that the Nuggets can win at Miami and the Heat can win at Denver. The Heat will respond here and are very well coached (admittedly Denver is too) and I could see the Nuggets getting caught feeling a little too good about themselves after the way Game 1 went. In further support of this pick and in terms of having the guts to take a +300 money line, note that the Heat are 9-0 SU (STRAIGHT UP) the last 9 times they have entered a game off a loss by a margin of a dozen or less points. The points are a generous offer here for sure but we won't need them so I am going for a triple your money wager here. Take the Heat on the money line as this streak reaches 10 in a row! MIAMI +300

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Heat +9 @ Denver Nuggets @ 8:30 ET - I really like both these teams. Guys who follow me closely know I rode both the Nuggets and Heat heavily in the conference finals. That said, I got the match-up I wanted and I feel we have a solid competitive balance here. Certainly the Nuggets are the stronger overall team and deserve this heavy line generally speaking but Miami is a very good team. Also, this is not a normal situation here either. Rest is a good thing but too much rest can lead to rust. That is an issue here for Denver. There already is a normal automatic layoff between the conference finals and the NBA finals. That said, the fact the Heat / Celtics series went 7 games did not necessarily hurt them entering this series. It could hurt them if this series goes deep but early on it actually is an advantage that Miami could be more game ready here considering the fact that the Nuggets have not played since Monday. No not the Monday of THIS week but the Monday of LAST week. So a weak and a half later Denver is taking the floor again finally for a real game. Nothing compares to real game action no matter how much you practice. So the point is Denver is likely rusty enough that the Heat can take advantage early on in this one. I still think Nuggets find a way to win this one but I do not think they win this by double digits. Grab the big points here. MIAMI +9

NBA Monday Miami Heat Money Line +250 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - For those of you that prefer taking the points of course you can do that instead if you wish (currently some +7.5 is out there) but I am going with the +250 on the money line here. First off, Boston is trying to do something that has never been done in terms of coming all the way back from down 3-0 in an NBA series to win 4 straight and take the series. Secondly, the Heat are so well-coached and have a huge experience edge with Spoelstra over Mazzulla as I have mentioned in my prior write-ups. Thirdly and, for me, a huge key here is a look inside that Game 6 boxscore in the thriller that Boston won by just a single point on a late tap-in. Note that the Big 3 of Boston - Brown, Smart, Tatum - totaled 78 points and shot a respectable 24 of 53 from the field. Conversely, the Big 3 of Miami - Butler, Adebayo, Vincent - totaled only 50 on disastrous 15 of 55 shooting from the field. Look at those numbers again. Look at the final score again. I am telling you straight up that I will actually be SHOCKED, given all of the above, if the Heat do NOT pull off what the public would perceive as a SHOCKER and win this game OUTRIGHT! Seriously, I am not exaggerating here. Given the number above the Heat should have lost by at least 20 points in that last game and they did not as they were 0.1 seconds from an outright win. That says a lot. I am confident in Spoelstra and in Butler and the fact they will bounce back here after the horrible shooting in Game 6. Grab the points if you want but my play is on the outright money line winner. MIAMI +250

MLB Sunday Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 +115 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:08 ET - This is a rare plus plus situation with a quality team. The Phillies are the defending NL champs but we can get them +1.5 runs +115 here - hence the plus plus - and I will not pass up on the value here. On the surface, based on the pitching match-up, it looks like a mismatch. However, Dylan Covey capable of doing a respectable job here and has looked manageable in recent work. At the same time, let's not forget Spencer Strider has not been as strong of late and he also got rocked when he most recently faced the Phillies in the post-season last year. The Phillies have some confidence from B2B wins so far in this series. Additionally, the Braves have now lost 10 of 16 and 3 of those 6 wins were by just a single run! Also, Atlanta scored an average of only 2.8 runs in those 10 losses! This is too much underdog value with a quality lineup. The Phillies bullpen has also been stepping up of late. More of the same here. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 +115

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Heat +3 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - I just can not see Gabe Vincent missing this game. The Heat know a win tonight is critical. Vincent was able to take Game 5 off because of the situation but now in Game 6, and considering the injury is not major, I feel strongly that he will be back. Even if he is not, I look for Jimmy Butler to have a much better game on his home floor. He and all of the Heat players should bounce back. They have been so strong this year when at home and off a loss. Miami is 17-4 the last 21 times they have entered a home game coming off a loss. This includes a perfect 8-0 the last 8 times! This is a SU record but, of course, any SU win tonight is also an ATS win for the Heat as they are catching 3 points here. So the system fits and we will not hesitate to back it. Also, Boston is 0-6 the last 6 times they have entered a road game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. So this is a double perfect spot as both these team trends are also perfect in this post-season. Indeed I am expecting the outright win here but I will grab the points just in case the Heat fall just short but I am looking for a major response here at home and the long-term numbers in this situation certainly support that. MIAMI +3

NBA Thursday Miami Heat +8.5 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - I did have Boston in Game 4 and expected Celtic pride to rise up and avoid the sweep. However, as I mentioned in that write-up I sill expect Miami to end up winning this series. Even if that does not happen, I do expect them to stay inside this inflated number. The Heat are up 3-1 in this series. Now, because Boston finally got a win but is down 3-1 and returning home and has a 34-year old coach and first beat a Hawks team that did not even have a winning record in the regular season and then beat a Sixers team that is softer than a paper towel and plays without true hunger and passion more often than not...now, because of all that, this Celtics team is supposed to blowout Miami in Game 5? I am not buying any of this for one second! The fact is the Heat have been fantastic in this post-season, playing with a ton of confidence, winning games with hustle and heart, playing with passion, and they are coached by Erik Spoelstra who will be coaching his 177th PLAYOFF GAME - all with the Heat. Compare this to Mazzulla who just coached his first ever season in the NBA. I know Boston won Game 4 by 15 in Miami but the Celtics outscored the Heat by 30 points from 3-point land as they were hot from downtown while Miami struggled to hit from deep. I did like the fact that the Heat resumed being the stronger rebounding team in Game 4 and I expect more of the same here. Miami has only had one losing streak (3 games) since early March as when they have entered a game off a standalone loss they have won the next game 8 of 9 times including all 3 times in this post-season. Even if they do not win outright here, look for them to get at least th cover and yes I am aware of the questionable status of guard Gabe Vincent but this team has battled through injuries all post-season. MIAMI +8.5

NBA Tuesday Boston Celtics +2 @ Miami Heat @ 8:30 ET - Even though I have been on Miami throughout this series and do expect them to win the series eventually. I don't see that happening tonight. The Celtics actually had 98 field goal attempts compared to 81 for the Heat in Game 3 on Sunday. Boston was done in by poor shooting and the fact that Miami shot lights out. That said, the value is with the Celtics here in desperation mode. The Heat have the coaching edge big-time in this match-up but Boston has a very talented cast and they can will this team to victory if they want it bad enough. I think this Celtics team absolutely does want to win this one for pride and to get one more home in at least as this would send the series back to Boston for Game 5. Note that the Celtics made just 26% of threes Sunday while the Heat knocked down 54%. That was your game right there. Rebounds were 57 to 35 in favor of Boston plus a crazy 21 to 1 edge for the Celtics in terms of offensive rebounds. So some of the hustle stats were there for the C's Sunday and odds in terms of regression to the mean certainly would suggest that Miami regresses in Game 4 while the Celtics improve from the floor in Game 4. BOSTON +2

Rotation #201881: Spanish La Liga Tuesday Girona +0.5 goals -120 @ Celta de Vigo @ 1:30 ET - It is true that Girona has struggled on the road this season but they are in much better current form than Celta de Vigo. Also, Girona is currently #7 in the standings so they are still trying to lock up a spot for European Football which would be a major accomplishment for them. They also lost 1-0 to Celta de Vigo in the reverse fixture earlier this season. They also carry motivation here from that as well as entering this match off a loss after having played so well for an extended stretch. So all of this sets up well for value on the road club in that a victory or a draw (either way) puts us in the winners circle. That is key as Celta de Vigo has only 10 victories in 35 matches this season and Girona has only 13 losses in 35 matches this season! GIRONA +0.5 goals -120

NBA Monday Denver Nuggets +3.5 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - All the pressure on the Lakers here. Nuggets would be okay if there was a game 5 in Denver. LA will not see a Game 5 unless they win tonight. Lakers have not handled the pressure well so far in this series and I like the fact that Nuggets won Game 3 despite Jokic scoring "only" 24 points. This says a lot about how strong this Denver team is and they also got outrebounded in that game. So when you combine all those factors with the fact we can get 3.5 points here with a Nuggets team that has won 5 straight games and 11 of 14 in this post-season, you have value on your side with this one. The Lakers have lost 3 straight of course and are just 7-7 last 14 games in this post-season. Also one of their round two wins came by just 3 points and one of their round one wins came in OT. We have a lot of value here in a game the Nuggets could win outright but also could cash for us even with a SU loss as this could be a tight finish. Keep in mind, the Lakers biggest lead in Game 3 here in LA was 2 points while the Nuggets led by as many as 14. The visitors just have too much for the hosts here. DENVER +3.5

NBA Sunday Miami Heat +3.5 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Heat are up 2-0 in this series. Now, because Boston is down 0-2 and has a 34-year old coach and first beat a Hawks team that did not even have a winning record in the regular season and then beat a Sixers team that is softer than a paper towel and plays without true hunger and passion more often than not...now, because of all that, this Celtics team is supposed to go down to Miami and turn all this around in one game? I am not buying any of this for one second! The fact is the Heat are 5-0 at home in this post-season, playing with a ton of confidence, winning games with hustle and heart, playing with passion, and they are coached by Erik Spoelstra who will be coaching his 175th PLAYOFF GAME - all with the Heat. Compare this to Mazzulla who just coached his first ever season in the NBA. Considering all of the above factors I do like the Heat to go up 3-0 in this series but the money line is only in the +135 range and, in a case like this, considering I can get 3.5 points with the underdog, I am going to side with the points rather than the money line in case Miami falls just short. But look for the Heat to get the job done yet again as they win their 8th straight home dating back to a loss in way back in late March. MIAMI +3.5

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets +6 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - Much is being made of the Lakers returning home and how they are now going to respond and that everything will be okay in La-La Land. I beg to differ! The most recent home game for the Lakers saw them allow 103 field goal attempts (they had just 75) in the 122-101 game that eliminated the Warriors from the post-season. Golden State lost that game for one key reason and that was simply horrible shooting overall including from 3-point land. The home game before that saw the Lakers go 20 of 20 from the line while the Warriors had just 9 free throw attempts. Even with that the Lakers won the game by just 3 points. That said, and with knowledge the free throw disparity between the Nuggets and Lakers will NOT be the same here (Lakers 62 to 26 edge in FT attempts in last 2 home games of series with GSW). Denver has looked very strong so far in this series and remember their 3 post-season defeats have come by 5 and 6 and 7 points and one of those was in OT. This team getting 6 points against a team they are clearly superior to especially when you consider the Nuggets have NO pressure here makes them a VERY dangerous dog in this spot. All the pressure is on the Lakers. The underdog has a great shot at the upset here but certainly the Nuggets should at least do enough for the cover the way I see this one unfolding! 10* DENVER +6

NBA Friday Miami Heat +9 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - Boston might bounce back and win this game but I am still going to challenge them to win big after we rode Miami in game one to a solid outright upset win. The fact is the Celtics got past a mediocre Atlanta team and a dysfunctional soft weak 76ers team to get to this point. They are facing a real team now in Miami that is also so well coached. The fact is the Celtics are coached by 34 year-old Mazzulla and I think this is the series where his lack of high-level experience is finally going to be exploited. The Hawks did not have the talent to beat this Celtics team. The 76ers did not have the heart or the coaching ability (yes Doc Rivers deserved blame too) to get past Boston as the talent went to waste. This Heat team has talent and hunger and an X-factor in Jimmy Butler as he continues to be playoff Jimmy in this post-season. More of the same here. Give me the points against a Boston team that is 8-10 SU last 18 home games. This team can't even win a good percentage of home games come playoff time let alone cover a double digit spread. Grab the big points as the Heat have played 12 post-season games thus far and only 1 was a loss by a double digit margin. MIAMI +9

NBA Thursday Denver Nuggets -5.5 vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - This is just a typical contrarian play for me. The zig zag theory is in effect here because when the markets zig I prefer to zag. The point being that most will be backing the Lakers here after they fell just short in Game 1 and so most will be looking at the underdog as that is the traditional zig zag approach. However, what I see in this game is that Denver is going to be a very tough match-up for the Lakers and the Nuggets also will have proven to have learned their lesson from Game 1. What I mean by this is that they let the Lakers get back into the game late as Denver blew a massive and comfortable lead they had for much of the game. The Nuggets will not make the same mistake twice and I look for them to win this one big by double digits. DENVER -5.5

NBA Wednesday Miami Heat +8.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Celtics were gift-wrapped this appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals. They faced a Hawks team that barely made the playoffs. Then they faced a 76ers team that has a guy by the name of Embiid that should return his MVP Trophy and the NBA should reissue it to Jokic. The 76ers Embiid and Harden - to lose those final two games and put the stat lines together they had - is absolutely inexcusable. You did not see heart, you did not see effort, you did not see the heart of a champion. Jimmy Butler has that heart and he is the leader of this team. Even battling through injuries they have made it this far because they are also well-coached unlike Doc Rivers running a 3-ring circus in Philly. The point is that this Boston team is not what they used to be, not the same team they were when Brad Stevens was patrolling the sidelines rather than sitting in the front office. They simply ran into a Philly team that has so much talent but was poorly coached and did not show heart and fortitude. Simply put, the Sixers are a joke. The reason that has so much to do with this play is because now Boston runs into a true foe that can battle them all over the floor. Yes they have injuries but these guys play hard and they are gamers and the energy is infectious all over the floor. So the Heat are going to battle hard. I am not saying they win this game or win this series but the Celtics are about to face something they have not yet faced in this post-season. A team that is talented AND well-coached AND scrappy AND hard-working. The Heat have it all and they will be in this game to the final minute the way I see it. Give me these huge points. MIAMI +8.5

NBA Tuesday Denver Nuggets -6 vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - Game 6 of the Lakers prior series they were hosting Golden State. Take a look at this: Warriors 103, Lakers 75. Now, of course we all know this was not the final score or else there would have been a Game 7 at Golden State and the Lakers would not even be here. But the point is the Lakers won Game 6 despite the Warriors having 28 more FG attempts. Yes LA got to the line a ton but the biggest problem was the Warriors shot horribly from the field. That is not happening here with this Lakers opponent. The Nuggets are rested and ready and are strong. Jamaal Murray is on the injury report as questionable with illness but we also saw that in the final game of the series with the Suns. The fact is that Denver has won 8 of 11 post-season games and 7 of the 8 wins have come by a margin of at least 9 points. The Nuggets are so strong at home and the Lakers 4 post-season losses have all come by double digits and this one will too. DENVER -6

NHL Monday 10* Top Play Dallas Stars Puck Line -1.5 +125 vs Seattle Kraken @ 8:10 ET - If you like Dallas to win this game - and as -200 favorite they certainly are expected to win - the key here is where the value is in this scenario. There is still inherent risk in laying big prices with money lines. I laid -180 yesterday with Edmonton and despite the Oilers notching 40 shots on goal - nearly twice as many as Vegas - they still lost the game. That said, I really do like the Stars a lot here on home ice and there is justification for grabbing the puck line here. Again, the odds makers are telling you that if these teams played 3 straight times at Dallas repeatedly the Stars should average taking 2 out of 3 games - that is what that -200 price is telling you. The key here is we can get a lot of value with the Stars in the +125 range by laying 1.5 goals on the puck line. What are the odds that a Dallas win here comes by at least a 2-goal margin? The odds are actually very good! Dating back to the regular season 13 of last 17 Dallas home wins have come by at least a 2-goal margin and that includes all 4 in these playoffs! As for Seattle, their first loss in this post-season was by 1 goal but all 5 of their losses since then have been by a multi-goal margin. As a hockey fan, I am very impressed (and somewhat surprised) by what coach Dave Hakstol and these Kraken have accomplished in this post-season. But winning a Game 7 on the road against an angry Stars team with a lot of playoff experience is not only not going to be easy...it is going to prove virtually impossible. The home team steps up in a big way here! 10* DALLAS -1.5 +125

NBA Sunday Philadelphia 76ers Money Line +230 @ Boston Celtics @ 3:30 ET - The Celtics have home court here so they are practically being handed their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals by most pundits. However, the road team is actually 7-2 SU in Boston's last 9 games. So you might think that stat is just because the Celtics are so strong on the road but it is NOT just that. Boston has actually lost 3 of last 4 home playoff games. Also, the Celtics are only at .500 (straight up!) in their last 20 home post-season games! That said, the ability to get even BETTER than 2 to 1 odds on the Sixers to surprise in this game is just too good to pass up! Many think Philly only goes as Harden goes. However, the 76ers won Game 5 by DOUBLE DIGITS despite Harden making only 4 field goals and just 1 from deep! He did not have a big scoring game yet Philly won the game big and that was here in Boston. Embiid dominated, Maxey had a huge game, Harris was solid in that one and Harden was good but not spectacular. All these guys are capable of stepping up again. Embiid is capable of taking over in this game if he puts his mind to it. Harden could take over and have a massive game and that would make a Sixers win even more likely. but even if Harden does not, I point to the most recent Philly win in this series and that was here in Boston. A key here is confidence and the Sixers have already won here twice in this series. All the pressure is on the Celtics as they are expected to win at home. We all know what often happens when a team is expected to win and they are harboring all the pressure. I look for a loose and relaxed and confident Philly team to shock everyone and get the outright win here! Not only is Boston 1-3 SU last 4 home games, the 76ers are 6-1 SU last 7 road games. They have traveled well and they do it again here. No points needed, the Sixers win this outright. PHILADELPHIA +230

NBA Friday New York Knicks +6.5 @ Miami Heat @ 7:30 ET - Waiting has paid off as this line is all the way up to a 6.5 on this one. The Knicks could have closed shop in Game 5 and headed to the golf course but they proved they are hungry and are not done yet. With a win tonight Game 7 is in New York. Wouldn't that be nice? Yes it would and we all saw what the Celtics did at Philly last night in a similar situation. No the Knicks are not the Celtics but the Heat are certainly not the Sixers either! The point is that an outright upset would not surprise me at all here and yet we have 6.5 points to work with here. I'll take it. Two of the Knicks losses in this series have been by single digits and their confidence is back after winning game 5 at home. Jimmy Butler is the best player on the floor for sure but the Knicks have shown they have other players who will step up for them for sure and they are hungry here and will be scrappy on the road after the locker-room incident they had here in Game 4. They want tonight to be different and they have the horses to get it done! NEW YORK KNICKS +6.5

NBA Tuesday Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 7:30 ET - This one is all about the line value. The series is tied 2-2. Each team has won on the other teams home floor. Yet home floor is of course a factor in the lines. That said, this is big value with the big points here. The Sixers got that huge win in Game 4 as the Game 1 Harden showed up again and simply would not let Philly lose. Of course if the Sixers lost that game they were likely finished as they would have been down 3-1 and would have had to win twice in Boston. They were very close to being in a nearly impossible situation. However, oftentimes one key break like this can lead to a domino effect and now the 76ers could shock here. They have confidence and they have momentum and here we can have a lot of value because of the 7.5 points. We do not need Philly to win outright to cash our ticket and yet the fact is they already won here once and this Celtics team is not as strong as recent seasons. The Sixers have really closed the gap on Boston - finally - and this could be the year they finally get past their nemesis. This year is definitely different as the Celtics won the most recent playoff series by a combined 8 games to 1 but that was with Brad Stevens as their head coach. Now it is 34-year old Joe Mazzulla. The Sixers might find a way tonight for the SU but, either way, I am not expecting much of a margin in this game and this one should down to the wire. Yes I know Embiid is questionable but I can't see him missing a game of this magnitude. PHILADELPHIA +7.5

NBA Sunday Philadelphia 76ers +3 vs Boston Celtics @ 3:30 ET - This is it for Philly for all intents and purposes. If they lose this game they are down 3 games to 1 and would have to win twice at Boston to win this series. Basically this game is about as must-win as it gets without truly being an elimination game. Now, of course, just because a team needs to win does not mean it will win. However, the motivation and hunger and desire and home court edge all are with Philadelphia in this one. Also, a nice angle supports this play as Philly enters this game off B2B losses after winning 5 straight games to open up the post-season. Note that you have to go all the way back to October to find the last time Philly entered a home game off consecutive losses and did not win the game. Indeed, from late October onward, the 76ers are a PERFECT 5-0 SU when they are at home and are entering the game on a losing streak of at least 2 games. Those 5 wins were by an average margin of 11 points per game and all 5 of them were by at least 8 points. However, the money line on this game is only in the +120 range and we can get as much as +3 with the spread currently so I am going to suggest grabbing the points just in case Philly falls just short here. However, I absolutely expect they are going to get another win here and improve to 6-0 SU in this situation! PHILADELPHIA +3

NHL Thursday Dallas Stars Puck Line -1.5 +140 vs Seattle Kraken @ 9:40 ET - I like the way the Stars responded down 4-2 after one period at home. They still ended up losing that game in overtime but this Dallas team showed how they are capable of playing against Seattle and did not allow any goals after the first period debacle. The Stars know they can afford to go down 2-1 in this series and they had been so strong defensively and in goal in their recent wins over the Wild to close out that series with 3 straight wins. The Kraken have been a big surprise but I just can't see them winning both these games at Dallas. That said, the Stars are certainly justified as a huge money line favorite here but we turn to the puck line for the value here. I am grabbing the +140 with the knowledge that most of the Kraken losses of late have been by big margins and same goes for most of the Stars recent wins. DALLAS -1.5 +140

NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +10 @ Boston Celtics @ 8 ET - When I played Philly in Game One I definitely did not expect them to win outright. However, now that they did this really has everyone lining up on Boston here. In the traditional zig-zag theory of handicapping, when the markets zig I like to zag. So, the point is, this is a bit of a contrarian play but I am confident the 76ers will stay within this inflated number here. The Celtics have not been the same team defensively recently as evident in the Hawks series. Also, as mentioned in my Game One write-up: the 76ers are without Embiid most likely in Game 2 of this series. However, they did play well without him this season. Also, getting double digits is a lot of points when you are a team as strong as Philadelphia is. The Sixers also still have a big rest edge here as they quickly dispatched of the Nets. Remember that also including winning the clinching Game 4 at Brooklyn and without Embiid. The Celtics, on the other hand, had to fight hard to get past Atlanta. The Hawks were scrappy with Boston in the first round. I am not saying Philly wins this outright of course. But I am saying they have enough edges to keep this margin single digits throughout the match-up. This should be quite a battle as the Sixers are better than people realize even when Embiid is not on the floor. So I am sure Harden will not have such a big game in this one like he did in Game One but others are certainly capable of huge performances too. This team about much more than just Embiid. Also, the Celtics never led Game One by more than 12 points. Just so much value with the big points here the way I see it. 10* PHILADELPHIA +10

NBA Tuesday Miami Heat +6.5 @ New York Knicks @ 7:30 ET - This is too many points the way I see it. The Heat have Jimmy Butler listed as questionable for this one but I see no way he will not play here. Also, the Knicks do have Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson both listed as questionable on their report. It is not like New York is 100 percent healthy. As for Miami they have been missing guys for awhile and yet still others have stepped up and I look for them to continue to do. I grabbed the money line in Game 1 of this series in Miami's upset and was happy to get the bigger payback but this time I feel the Knicks might scratch out a tight win and so the value is with the points in this one. As I mentioned in my Game 1 write-up, "The Knicks just beat Cleveland. However, the Cavaliers had not even been in the playoffs for 5 years. Now New York faces a real playoff team. The Heat are in the post-season for the 4th straight year. They have been to the NBA Finals once and the Conference Finals twice in the past 3 seasons alone. They just beat a Bucks team that not only had a fantastic regular season, they have a great recent playoff reputation as well with 7 straight playoff appearances and also a recent NBA Championship. The Heat lost guys to injury and it did not matter. The key is that it was NOT just about Jimmy Butler either. Yes he is the star but other guys have stepped up. If these guys can beat the Bucks and score on them like they did, you know the Knicks are going to have to really amp up their offensive game to have a chance in this series. New York averaged 100 ppg in the 5 games of the series with the Cavs." All of the above considered, getting about a half-dozen points to work with here is a great value for us. MIAMI +6.5

NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 7:30 ET - 76ers are without Embiid most likely in Game 1 of this series. However, they did play well without him this season. Also, getting double digits is a lot of points when you are a team as strong as Philadelphia is. The Sixers also have a big rest edge here as they quickly dispatched of the Nets. Remember that also including winning the clinching Game 4 at Brooklyn and without Embiid. The Celtics, on the other hand, had to fight hard to get past Atlanta. The Hawks were scrappy with Boston in the first round. I am not saying Philly wins this outright of course. But I am saying they have enough edges to keep this margin single digits throughout the match-up. This should be quite a battle as the Sixers are better than people realize even when Embiid is not on the floor. 10* PHILADELPHIA +10.5

NHL Sunday 10* Top Play Colorado Avalanche -1.5 +125 vs Seattle Kraken @ 9:35 ET - The Avalanche have had their last two wins in this series each come by a multiple goal margin and I expect more of the same here. The Avs are a big home favorite for a reason. Seattle had their chance at home to close this series out but Colorado is the defending champion on of the NHL and they certainly looked like that in Game 6. They wrapped up the regular season winning 16 of 19 and 7 of last 8 home wins in the regular season also by a multi-goal margin. The Kraken had a chance, as noted above, to finish this in Game 6. But only did Seattle not do that, the game was not even close. Colorado seemed to kick things up a notch and the Kraken could not match that. Look for that to again be the case here because, of course, there is no way the Avs will come out flat in this Game 7 situation on home ice. That is bad news for Seattle as this Avalanche team is just too much. They have turned the tide in this series and will not stop now. 10* COLORADO -1.5 +125

Rotation #200134: English Premier League Saturday Brighton & Hove -1 -120 vs Wolverhampton @ 10 AM ET - Wolverhampton has won just 2 of 16 road matches this season and is facing an angry host here. Brighton has lost just 4 of 14 home matches this season but they are coming off B2B disappointing results and this has them fired up here. They will respond big on their home pitch. They had a scoreless draw end in a loss on penalty kicks to Manchester United in the English FA Cup two matches ago. After that heart-breaking loss they were flat against Nottingham Forest and paid the price with a 3-1 loss on the road. Brighton will surely be at their best today to make up for those losses and I am expecting a blowout home win to result. BRIGHTON -1 -120

NBA Friday Sacramento Kings +7.5 @ Golden State Warriors @ 8 ET - Line moving toward Golden State at home, of course. I am grabbing the value on the other side of the move. The Kings still believe and with one win they send this series back to Sacramento for Game 7. There has been one blowout in this series. The other 4 games have been decided by an average margin of 4.8 points. The Kings are 8-2 SU the last 10 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of at least two games. Not only is that impressive, we do not need a SU win to get the cash in this case. We also have 7.5 points to work with. I like our chances! SACRAMENTO +7.5

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks +7 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - Some might look and say there is no way the Hawks have a chance here because it was a Trae Young miracle in Game 5. While certainly his feats were ultra-impressive, the fact is that the Hawks played an all-around great game. The rest of the team shot 14 of 28 from distance plus contributed 81 points and played good clean basketball by limiting turnovers. This was on the road AT Boston. So I am not saying the Hawks will win this game outright but I do feel we have excellent line value here with the big points at home and the fact that Atlanta has shown they will not quit in this series. The Hawks home record this season is nearly identical to the Celtics road record this season and expecting Game 6 to go to the wire is really not asking too much here. This game could go either way late the way I see it so having the 7 points on your side is a huge benefit. 10* ATLANTA +7

NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play Edmonton Oilers Puck Line -1.5 +115 vs Los Angeles Kings @ 9:38 ET - This series is very close to being 3-1 Kings but the fact is the Oilers rallied for the tying goal in Game 4 and finally got an OT win to go their way and that changes everything. The reality is that, as close as this series is to being 3-1 Los Angeles, it could just as easy be over and have been a 4-0 sweep for the Oilers! Give credit to the Kings for their moxie in this series but Edmonton has been the better team throughout. Now, with all the momentum on their side and back on home ice, Oilers roll to a big home win here. They certainly don't want to chance this game to overtime and I look for them to be relentless. Keep in mind, the Kings only 2 wins in this series have been in overtime. The Oilers did have a 4-2 win here on home ice and I believe that was a heart-breaking loss for LA in Game 4 while Edmonton is absolutely going to build off that win. What a win for the Oilers and now they are at home and can get their first lead of this series. They have deserved to be leading in this series and now the set-up is perfect for them to get what they deserve. 10* EDMONTON -1.5 +115

MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -135 vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - I know Davis had a surprisingly good first start for the Rockies but I expect a reality check for him here! The fact is he struggled in spring training with too many walks so he started this season in AAA and he also had trouble with too many walks. However, he got called up to the bigs due to injury issues. Now Davis faces a fired up Phillies lineup on the road after they surprisingly got shutout by his teammates yesterday. The Rockies are known for struggling on the road and I feel sure lightning will not strike twice here. In other words, after getting shutout by a 5-0 final yesterday, look for the Phillies to respond strong here. They also will have Aaron Nola on the mound. He is known for dominating at home and his stuff should be sharp here. He has a solid k/bb ratio this season and Nola has settled in decently since his first start of the season was an ugly one. I expect his breaking stuff to give the road-adverse Rockies a lot of trouble here and the Phillies pull away as this game goes on. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -135

NBA Wednesday Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5 - The Wolves did not just lose Game One at Denver, they got completely embarrassed. An unbelievable 109 to 80 loss for Minny in the first game will also bring an equally unbelievable focus from the losers of Game One. Of course the Nuggets are still the better team overall but this is one of those games where it is all about who wants it more. I am not saying that Minnesota will win this outright, though that would not be a total surprise either, but I am saying they should get at least the cover in this one. Remember when they lost at LA against the Lakers in the play-in round everyone thought the T-wolves were finished. They responded by blasting OKC by 25 points. We will see a response from the Wolves here. MINNESOTA +8.5

NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers -10 vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:30 ET - The 76ers never trailed in Game 1. They led the game by as many as 25 points and won the game by 20 points. The scary thing for Brooklyn is that the Nets shot 56% from the field and 45% from 3-point land and yet still got destroyed. Part of the problem was turnovers for Brooklyn but Philly had 14 steals in the game so it is not like it was all on the Nets. The fact is that Philadelphia was able to create an uncomfortable environment for Brooklyn in that one and I expect more of the same here. Keep in mind, Philly won every single quarter.  The Nets were outscored by at least 3 points in each of the 4 quarters. The Sixers bench also dominated Brooklyn's subs when you compare that aspect of the game as well. Top notch talent, depth, overall team quality...the 76ers have it all in this match-up and they prove that again Monday. I am never too fond of laying big numbers but it is again justified here. PHILADELPHIA -10

NBA Sunday Phoenix Suns -7.5 vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 8 ET - The Suns will have Kevin Durant for this game. The Clippers will not have Paul George. Phoenix also is at home. I also do expect Cameron Payne to play for Phoenix here as he has been dealing with lower back soreness but the time off should have helped him. If he does not go, Landry Shamet should do just fine with the extra minutes he'll get. The Clippers will really miss George. He is a key contributor for them including averaging 23.8 ppg just like Kawhi Leonard. Suns were 28-13 at home this season and Clippers basically a .500 team on the road. I also like the fact that LA was just 20-27 against teams with a winning record this season. They basically padded their record big time against bad teams. It is playoff time now and the Suns come ready at home here and should win this game by double digits. Suns had 28 wins by double digits this season and Clippers had 21 losses by double digit margins. This looks like another one. Big win for the home team in this one as I know the road team took all 4 regular season meetings between these teams but the entire set-up and injury situation is different here with this playoff game. PHOENIX -7.5

NBA Sunday Milwaukee Bucks -9 vs Miami Heat @ 5:30 ET - The Heat had to play 2 games just to get here. The Bucks are rested and ready and at home. I know this is a big number but I expect Milwaukee to show no mercy here. Keep in mind, the Heat struggled on the road this season and the Bucks are so strong at home. Also, they do not want to give Miami any sense of hope in this one. I look for Milwaukee to jump on them and then keep the hammer down. Note that the Bucks were 32-9 at home this season. Overall, on the season, they won 30 games by at least 10 points and I look for one of those types of big wins here in this one. The Heat are off a win versus the Bulls but outscored Chicago by 17 points at the free throw line. Of course they are not going to have that kind of edge here on the road at Milwaukee like they did at home against the Bulls. The home team won all 4 meetings between these teams this season and Miami's backcourt still banged up and I certainly don't expect Strus to score 31 again like he did against Chicago! Healthy and rested this one is home dominance. MILWAUKEE -9

NBA Saturday Atlanta Hawks +9.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 3:30 ET - The Celtics are a fantastic team that also creates match-up problems for the Hawks. However, in this post-season match-up I am going to challenge Boston to win the first game by double digits. If there was one game where Atlanta could do something a little different and surprise then I would say this would be it. The Hawks can shake some things up, give the Celtics some different looks, tweak a few things that would make Boston uncomfortable. I would say the Celtics still respond and prevail and get the SU win here but not the ATS cover. I look for the Hawks to surprise. Atlanta's win by double digits at Miami now looks more impressive after the way the Heat took care of the Bulls last night in the finale of the play-in round. Also, if you look at the entirety of this season, Atlanta was rarely blown out. This is particularly true since Thanksgiving which, of course, we as a very long time ago. There are just not many double digit losses for the Hawks over the past nearly 5 months. Also, in the last meaningful match-up between the teams, so NOT the regular season finale, the Celtics did win by 9 points and the game was AT Atlanta. However, Boston outscored the Hawks by 30 points from 3 point land! Yes the Celtics shot lights out and made 20 threes compared to just 10 for Atlanta. That means not including the 3-ball, Atlanta won the game by 21 points. And in the first meeting, the Celtics won by 25 at Atlanta but outscored the Hawks by 42 points from 3-point land as they made 14 more threes! It is pretty amazing how hot Boston was in both games and certainly Hawks not known for defense but you can see why this has resulted in some extra value baked into this line and I feel Atlanta is absolutely going to D up more in this one as playoff time has arrived. Play ATLANTA +9.5

Saturday NBA Philadelphia 76ers -8.5 vs Brooklyn Nets @ 1 ET - The Nets just don't have the horses to compete with a loaded and healthy Sixers team that could win it all this season. The 76ers will want to establish their superiority early in this series and they won all 4 games against Brooklyn this season including dominating them in the season finale. Keep in mind they beat them by 9 at home earlier this season and that was when the Nets had Durant, Irving, and Simmons all on the floor. Durant now in Phoenix, Irving in Dallas, and Simmons recovering from injury as per usual with him. I know Brooklyn has other guys but this team just can not match up well with Philly and I look for Sixers to roll big at home here. Keep in in mind that 9-point win earlier this season saw the Sixers without Embiid and Harden and yet Philly still won big. Depth, bench play, home court, starting five prowess...all the edges to Sixers in this one. PHILADELPHIA -8.5

Rotation #224406: Europa League Thursday 10* Top Play Manchester United -1.5 +115 vs Sevilla @ 3 ET - Sevilla is a big name team but having a down season and in poor current form. Manchester United is red hot right now and should dominate this match. They also can get payback here for a 2-1 loss to Sevilla when these clubs last met in Europa League action. Sevilla has allowed an average of 2 goals per match last 9 matches. Manchester United has allowed a TOTAL of only 2 goals in last 6 matches! I am forecasting a 2-0 final here but we could see much more than that and, either way, looking for the hosts to make a statement here in the first leg of this one and win this one by a multi-goal margin. 10* Manchester United -1.5 +115

Rotation #200234: English Championship League Monday 10* Top Play Norwich City Goal Line -1 goal vs Rotherham United @ 10 AM ET - Both clubs back on track with wins Friday but Norwich has a huge edge on home pitch here and is working hard to get back into the Premier League. They are on the cusp of a playoff position but again need maximum points in the table this week. Norwich City was relegated from the Premier League last season and they continue to battle to get back into it. They have had only modest success on their home pitch this season but that is an extra motivator here as well and they will take advantage of a road-adverse side in this one. Rotherham United is 2-9-9 on the road this season with a league-worst 11 goals on enemy pitch in those 20 matches. They have been outscored 28-11 on the road and I look for the motivated hosts to roll in this one. 10* NORWICH CITY Goal Line -1

NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz +16.5 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 3:40 ET - So this game is priced this way because the Lakers have some motivation to win. However, 4 of the Lakers top 5 scorers on the injury report. Even if those guys, including LeBron and Davis, play here I have a very important question to ask? What would happen if the Lakers - already guaranteed of being involved in at least the play-in round - have a late double digit lead and keep guys like LeBron and Davis on the floor and one of them gets a season-ending injury? That can't happen, right? Exactly! That is why I love the big points here because the Jazz rested a bunch of guys versus Denver because they are dealing with some injury issues too but Utah rallied for the win. Yes, that game was at home and the Nuggets rested starters in the 4th quarter of that one. However, the point is that Utah just would not quit. They played hard and their coach has whoever is on the floor playing hard for him. This Jazz team is still playing competitive basketball and while that will not mean a SU win here I do feel an ATS cover is in the cards for the big dog here. Lakers have to be careful about injuries here and the Jazz do not as their season is over anyway. They will continue to compete hard here just like they showed against the Nuggets. Also, this is game #82 of the season of course and the Jazz have had only FIVE losses ALL SEASON by more than 16 points! 10* UTAH +16.5

Rotation #200185: EPL Saturday 10* Manchester City Goal Line -1.5 -125 @ Southampton @ 12:30 ET - This should be a complete blowout. Manchester City did defeat Southampton early this season in the reverse fixture 4-0. However, the club with revenge here is actually City! Why? Because they got knocked out of the English Carabao Cup 2-0 by Southampton in January! This will be payback and goal machine Erling Braut Haaland is expected back for this one for City. Note that Manchester City enters this match having won 7 straight matches across all competitions. Not only that, the aggregate score of those 7 matches is 27 to 2. I know Southampton has been competitive of late and has not had many multi-goal losses recently but this one sets up differently. This Manchester City club will be relentless on the attack and has too many weapons for this Southampton team that is in last place in the table this season. In fact, note that City has not allowed a single goal to a last placed club in any of last 14 meetings with a club at the bottom of the table. Also, they have won 10 straight in those fixtures against bottom-laden clubs. Road team rolls here. 10* MANCHESTER CITY -1.5 -125

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks -9.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:40 ET - The Sixers will not play Embiid tonight. Even though he played last night, Embiid was part of an embarrassing home loss for Philly versus the Heat. You can sense that maybe the 76ers do not care so much if they get the #3 or #4 see as the Cavs are nipping at their heels but Philadelphia is playing soft. The Hawks will not play soft here. This game is very important for Atlanta based on playoff implications and the Hawks have been going strong for awhile and that continues here. Atlanta has won 3 straight overall and also 6 of last 7 home games. Also, each of last two Hawks wins have been by 18 points and 4 of last 6 Atlanta wins have been by at least 13 points. Each of last two losses (and 3 of last 4) for Philadelphia have been by 13 points. So I know this line is big but don't let it scare you away. The Sixers last 5 losses by an average margin of 15 points. 10* ATLANTA -9.5

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -4 vs Miami Heat @ 7:30 ET - The 76ers are virtually (but not yet) locked into the #3 seed for the playoffs. With a win here they can lock it up and this is Philly's final home game of the regular season. So I know they are off the big win versus the Celtics and they wanted that game badly, but they have an upcoming two game road trip on deck. That ends their regular season and is against a couple of playoff teams that could also be motivated to win. That said, I think Philly wants to lock things up tonight and then get some rest. They dominated Miami the last time they faced them and can do so again here. The Heat are 5-11 last 16 road games and 2 of those wins were recent ones against the lowly Pistons. Also, another of the wins was against another non-playoff team. That said, Miami certainly has not shown a knack for winning on the road and I look for the Sixers to lock up the #3 seed with a solid win tonight. The last 5 losses for the Heat all by 9 or more points and the average margin of defeat was 14.4 points. More of the same on tap here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -4

NHL Thursday 10* Top Play Florida Panthers -1.5 +100 vs Ottawa Senators @ 7:07 ET - The Panthers have revenge for a 5-2 loss at Ottawa last week. Since then, this Florida team is riding a red hot goalie (Alex Lyon) and playing like they have a fire lit under them. They have won 4 straight games and I am projecting a win by a multi-goal margin here. The Panthers most recent win was just a 2-1 final but this followed 5 of 6 wins having come by a multi-goal margin. Also, their last 7 wins have come by an average margin of 3 goals! The Senators have lost 3 straight game and the handwriting is on the wall now for them. The Sens will miss the post-season and though some of their recent losses have been by just a single goal, this revenge game sets up to be blowout city as the Panthers will be relentless on home ice! 10* FLORIDA -1.5 goals +100

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks -10.5 vs Washington Wizards @ 7:40 ET - The Wizards are done and eliminated from the playoff contention and not even playing half their guys including their stars. I am not fond of laying big points but I sense a complete blowout here from a Hawks side that needs to keep winning and will surely show no mercy here at home against a divisional foe. Washington has lost 13 of 17 games. They got hammered again last night while the Hawks got a big win at Chicago last night. Atlanta has had some recent tight home wins over playoff-level teams (each by 2 points) but this was preceded by 5 of last 7 home wins coming by at least 13 points and I am expecting another big blowout home win here. Keep in mind they did not have Trae Young or De'Andre Hunter last night in the win at Chicago. Either or both could return here. Even if they do not, I like our chances with the Hawks as they will still have a lot more firepower on the floor then a Wizards team that has quit on the season. 10* ATLANTA -10.5

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -2 vs Boston Celtics @ 8 ET - This is a crucial game for the 76ers as the Celtics always seem to have their number. The Sixers really need to get a win over Boston before the post-season and this is their last chance after losing each of the first 3 meetings of the regular season. Look for Philly to take advantage of Robert Williams being out for this game and Jaylen Brown not quite at 100% (and might not even play as a result). The Sixers are the healthier team and get the big win here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -2

NCAA Monday San Diego State Aztecs +7.5 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 9:20 ET - We have two chances to win this. That is the beauty of playing dogs in spread sports. One way of course is the outright upset but the other is just that if the dog falls short of the upset you can still get the all-important cover. The key here is we are getting 7.5 points which is a sizable amount. If a game is very tight late and then there is late fouling, etc. you will rarely see the final margin climb to 8 or more. That said, I really like our chances here because I do feel this game is going to be tight late and a great finish. I know Connecticut has been so hot and winning by huge margins and that this is, therefore, a contrarian play. But the fact is San Diego State has won 32 of 38 games this season and the final 5 of those 6 losses have ALL been by a single digit margin! The way I see it, the Aztecs are in this game all the way and fully capable of pulling off the shocker. Happy to grab the generous offering of points here. SAN DIEGO STATE +7.5

English Premier League Monday Everton Goal Line +0.5 -130 vs Tottenham @ 3 ET - Everton has been a different team since Sean Dyche took over from Frank Lampard. Also, I know they are in the relegation zone but they have been a respectable home club all season long. Tottenham has struggled away from home. Both teams have some issues off the field right now but how about Antonio Conte stepping away from Tottenham? The Hotspur are in a dogfight near the top of the table and I feel that this club which has struggled some on the road will possibly have a one-match speedbump with Conte's sudden departure and Cristian Stellini again stepping in on an interim basis. Note that, across all competitions, Tottenham has just one win last 5 matches. Everton is on a 3-match unbeaten run and only has 3 losses last 8 matches. They have been even better since Dyche took over and I love the value of having the plus half a goal on our side here. EVERTON +0.5 -130

NBA Sunday Atlanta Hawks -3 vs Dallas Mavericks @ 6:10 ET -  The Hawks are at home off a loss and that is a situation that has seen them go 7-2 the last 9. Atlanta just lost by double digits at Brooklyn and the Hawks should be aggressive and focused in this one as a result. I like Atlanta to bounce back here at home as they host a Mavericks team that is really out of sorts right now. Dallas has now lost 6 of last 7 games and 15 of last 21 as they plummet in the standings. Making matters worse for the Mavs here is the fact that this is a B2B spot. Taking a look at the other side of this equation, the Hawks are still in a key must-win situation as they need to improve their position in the standings and make sure they get into the post-season and they will surely go strong here at home. Note that Dallas has been solid at home but actually is 10 games below .500 on the road with an ugly 15-25 record. I have no hesitation here with investing in the Hawks off an ugly road loss to bounce back big at home. ATLANTA -3

NCAA Saturday Top Play Miami Hurricanes +5.5 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 8:49 ET - The Huskies have been on a tear. Of course the Hurricanes have too or they would not be here. However, what I mean by a tear is that UConn has not just been winning, they have been dominating teams. That has led to very solid line value here as Connecticut is now overvalued. It is only natural that the Huskies would end up over-priced here after all their big wins. The Huskies have won their 4 games by an average of 22.5 points. Now they face a Hurricanes team that has not only won 29 of 36 games this season, the last 4 regular season defeats they had all came by a margin of 3 or less points and and average margin of defeat of only 2 points. We get great value here and I will not pass this up. The Canes are hot enough and scoring well enough that no team's defense is going to stop them in their tracks right now. They are so well-coached and have a never say die attitude they have displayed so many times that I just can not see them coming up short here. If they do, look for it to be by the slimmest of margins. The Hurricanes have scored 82 ppg during their current 13-2 run. Now think of how blistering hot the Huskies have been but realize they have averaged 79 ppg last 12 games. All you hear anyone talking about is UConn but you can see why the data and the value both are in support of a very strong play here on a Canes team that is flying under the radar in my opinion. Top Play MIAMI +5.5

NCAA Saturday San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 6:09 ET - The Aztecs have twice as many losses as the Owls. However, San Diego State is favored for a reason here. The defense of the Aztecs is the difference here. They have won 8 straight games and allowed only 56 points per game during this stretch. The Owls have won 11 straight games and allowed 65 ppg in their last 9 wins. As you can see, 65 ppg allowed is solid but is not 56 either! Hats off to FAU on a fantastic season but they are the lowest seed team left in the tourney and this is a bargain price on a tough Mountain West team that faces a much tougher regular season schedule than this Conference USA foe. SAN DIEGO STATE -2.5

NBA Friday Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:10 ET - Raptors are motivated to win and that is keeping this line low. The key is that the Sixers have not locked in their playoff position just yet either so they will continue to be motivated for seeding purposes. Then you must factor that Philly is at home. Note that the Raptors have been awful on the road. Not only 12-24 on the season away from home, Toronto has lost 6 of last 7 away from home! The only win came in overtime and the 6 losses featured 5 by at least a 7 point margin. The average margin of the 6 defeats was 11 points and that sounds about right here. The 76ers are getting healthier again and are at home here and they have won 26 of last 33 home games. Their last 9 home wins have come by an average margin of 10 points and this should be another solid home win here as they take advantage of the Raptors road struggles. PHILADELPHIA -5.5

German Bundesliga Friday Goal Line Frankfurt -1 -115 vs Vfl Bochum @ 2:30 ET - Frankfurt needed the international break to hit the reset button while it could have taken some of the momentum away from Vfl Bochum. A big key here is the home road dichotomy as Eintracht Frankfurt has outscored opponents 27-13 at home and has 7 victories on their home pitch this season. Vfl Bochum is off just their second road victory of the season and has been outscored 35-9 away from home. No team has more road losses than Vfl Bochum with 11 on this season. That said, the money line is too pricey for my liking but we'll grab the value on the goal line here and I fully expect a solid win for the hosts in this one. FRANKFURT -1 -115

NIT Thursday North Texas Mean Green +2 vs UAB Blazers @ 9:30 ET - Mean Green 30-7 this season and have allowed 55 points or less in regulation time 8 of last 9 games. The Blazers beat North Texas in the C-USA Tourney after UNT took both regular season meetings. That said, the perfect revenge for the Mean Green would be getting the NIT Championship win over UAB. The Blazers also playing solid defense and are known for that but they have allowed an average of 67 points in regulation time of their last 8 games. As mentioned in my write-up for the match-up with Wisconsin in the semi-finals, this North Texas team is loaded with confidence and the set-up here is perfect for revenge with confidence never higher after the way the Mean Green closed out the win over the Badgers with dominant 2nd half play. UAB is a solid team for sure, of course, but look for the Mean Green to ride their stifling defense on the way to winning the NIT Championship Game Thursday as Blazers also had a little extra taken out of them with their win over Utah Valley State requiring OT Tuesday. Keep that in mind too...the Mean Green had to beat a solid Big Ten team to get here while UAB faced Utah Valley State. NORTH TEXAS +2

NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers -4 vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers have lost 3 straight games for just the 3rd time this season. They have NEVER lost 4 straight games this season. Also, Harden has been out for a few games but I would not be surprised to see him back tonight. Additionally, Embiid missed the game against Denver Monday but now with extra rest and the fact he is in the MVP race, I feel certain he will be back for this game. Either way, I do like the Sixers here at home as Dallas has been struggling quite a bit of late. The Mavericks are off win but this followed a 5-13 stretch for Dallas as the losses keep piling up including 7 of 9 games being defeats prior to the win at Indiana. The Mavericks beat the 76ers the last time these teams met in Dallas and that was in early March so the Sixers surely have not forgotten this and will be out for revenge here. Irving and Doncic each had 40+ points in that game and the Mavs still barely won the game. Of course that says a lot and I like the odds that Philly again responds and avoids what would be a 4th straight loss for the first time this season. PHILADELPHIA -4

NBA Tuesday Atlanta Hawks +1.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:40 ET - The Hawks are at home off a loss and that is a situation that has seen them go 6-2 the last 8. I like Atlanta to bounce back here at home as the host team has won both meetings between these teams this season and both wins were by double digit margins. The Cavaliers have won 6 of 8 games but the 6 wins included 4 against teams that are currently not in a playoff or play-in position while the other 2 wins came against a struggling Nets team that is a shell of its former self. The Hawks are still in a key position and need to improve their position in the standings and will go strong here at home. Note that Cleveland has been great at home but actually is a below .500 team on the road and I love the Hawks here off a loss to bounce back. ATLANTA +1.5

NIT Tuesday North Texas -1.5 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 7 ET - Mean Green 29-7 this season and allowed 55 points or less in regulation time 7 of last 8 games. The Badgers also playing solid defense and are known for that but they have allowed an average of 65 points in regulation time of their last 7 games. Also, lets not forget Wisconsin had lost 12 of 18 games entering this tournament. Certainly Wisconsin has played the tougher schedule but this North Texas team is loaded with confidence and favored here for a reason. The odds makers are sharp and they have a CUSA team that faced a weaker schedule favored over the Big Ten team for a reason. Look for the Mean Green to ride their stifling defense on the way to punching their ticket to the NIT Championship Game Thursday. NORTH TEXAS -1.5

NBA Monday Minnesota Timberwolves +5 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10:10 ET - The Timberwolves in a back to back spot but they have a critical position in the standings and have won 3 straight games and have Karl-Anthony Towns back and I just do not see them slowing down here. Their roll should continue. Also, De'Aaron Fox is still dealing with a hamstring injury for the Kings too. The Sacramento point guard is a key player and may not be 100% here if he is even able to go. The Kings are off B2B wins but this was preceded by B2B losses and this team has allowed 124 ppg last 5 games. No matter who is on the floor here, I like the defensive intensity and overall defensive intensity the Wolves brought to the game at Golden State last night and feel there were will be some carryover here to this game. Also, great value with having the points here. If you look at Sacramento's last 4 losses, 3 of them were very tight. One by just 2 points, one in OT and one in double-overtime. Yes, the Kings are motivated to win here too as they are still looking to lock up a playoff spot officially but T-wolves already took 2 of the 3 meetings this season and the only Sacramento win was in overtime. Grab the points. MINNESOTA +5

NCAA Sunday Miami Hurricanes +4 vs Texas Longhorns @ 5:05 ET - The Longhorns faced a pair of double digit seeds and then things toughened with a match-up against a #3 seed, Xavier. Even without their big man Dylan Disu (he could only go 2 minutes), the Horns prevailed. So how did they do it? Well some other guys stepped up but the real key was UT hitting 52.5 percent overall and 58.3% from three point land! Shooting percentages like that are tough to beat BUT also tough to repeat! The Longhorns will likely again be without Disu here and, against a scrappy Hurricanes team getting strong veteran leadership and strong play too, this could be the end for Texas. I am grabbing the points just in case but I am expecting the outright upset here. Even if Disu plays he is not 100% and this Canes team is playing with a lot of confidence and looks very complete and also is very well-coached. Miami is a high-quality team that is peaking at the right time and just beat a #4 seed and a #1 seed and got each win by double digits! This Hurricanes team is starting to believe and I know they, like Texas, had hot shooting in their most recent win BUT the key here is they are really healthy AND they are catching 4 points here. I do not think we'll need those points but we'll take them just in case but I am expecting an upset here. MIAMI +4

NCAA Sunday San Diego State Aztecs +2.5 vs Creighton Bluejays @ 2:20 ET - Why is Creighton favored over higher-seeded San Diego State here and an Aztecs team that has half as many losses? Well, the Bluejays have looked very good and so the odds makers and betting markets have reacted to that. This got me to look closer at this match-up and the fact is Creighton deserves credit of course but they have beaten two double digit seeds to get here and then what about the other win? Baylor was the impressive win but note that the Jays went 22 for 22 from the line and the Bears got to the line nearly as many times but only made 13. Also, Creighton shot 11 of 24 from beyond the arc while Baylor took nearly just as many but made only 5 of them. So when you consider all the facts here, the Bluejays did win that game by 9 points but they outscored the Bears by 27 points at the line and beyond the arc simply because of some extremely good shooting numbers that were outliers in my opinion. I feel this is giving us value here and I feel San Diego State will be able to slow down Creighton. Keep in mind, the Aztecs also had the good fortune of facing a couple of double digit seeds but then they faced top-seeded Alabama and won that game despite shooting poorly from everywhere. From the field overall, from 3-point land, at the free throw line...all the numbers were ugly for San Diego State at the offensive end. But they can win ugly again here as this team knows how to D up and grind out wins. Good value with the points. SAN DIEGO STATE +2.5

NCAA Saturday Top Play Gonzaga Bulldogs +2.5 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 8:49 ET - The Huskies embarrassed Arkansas (and me) on Thursday as my big play was on the Razorbacks then. But what really happened? Give credit to Connecticut for sure but if you look at the box score, you'll see some keys that have led to value here. The Huskies actually had 17 turnovers compared to just 10 for Arky. Also, UConn had 9 LESS shots from the field than Arkansas! The key was the Huskies shot a ridiculous 57% from the field compared to Razorbacks shooting an equally ridiculous 32% from the field! That included Huskies outscoring the Hogs by 12 points from beyond the arc. I also like the fact that Arkansas had 6 more free throws than the Huskies. The point is that the box score says a lot about how that game played out as it has some interesting statistical anomalies and now we get a little extra value here with a very tough and resilient and battle-tested and well-coached Gonzaga team. Facing TCU and UCLA were very tough tests for Gonzaga and help them here as Huskies certainly had the easier draw with St Mary's and Arkansas last 2 games. Bulldogs hammered St Mary's by 26 in the WCC Championship Game earlier this month. Although certainly respect is given to head coach Dan Hurley of UConn, Mark Few of the Bulldogs has long been known one of, if not the, best one currently coaching college basketball. Don't be surprised if that is a key element in crunch time as this game plays out. Top Play GONZAGA +2.5

NCAA Saturday Florida Atlantic Owls +2 vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 6:09 ET - The Owls are a #9 seed and catching just a bucket here against a Wildcats team that is from the Big 12 and seeded #3 too. Long-time followers know I am a contrarian and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing Florida Atlantic here. Everyone will be lining up on Kansas State thinking this is a trap line, etc. but look for the Cats to get upset in this one. FAU has plenty of confidence after outscoring Tennessee 40-28 in the 2nd half of their game Thursday. Kansas State blew 7 point leads multiple times in the 2nd half of their win over Michigan State. They ultimately got the win in overtime but the Wildcats could be a little more susceptible here after the way all that played out with an inability to hold on to leads as that game went on. FLORIDA ATLANTIC +2

NBA Saturday Indiana Pacers +9.5 @ Atlanta Hawks @ 5:10 ET - The Pacers lost by 25 at Boston last night but actually won the game by 17 points inside the arc. Why do I say that? Because the Celtics outscored Indiana by 42 points from three point land! Boston made 18 threes while the Pacers were an uncharacteristic 4 of 26 from three point land. That is unlikely to be repeated here plus Indiana got Haliburton back last night and might have Duarte back this evening. Either way, I like the Pacers here catching big points after last night's unusual results. Prior to last night's blowout loss due to disparate 3-point shooting results, Indiana had won 8 of 14 and 3 of the 6 losses were by 6 or less points. As you can see, a lot of value here with Pacers catching big points. The Hawks have only 2 wins by more than 8 points in last 13 games! Great value with the big points here! INDIANA +9.5

2024 European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage Saturday Romania Goal Line -1.5 -150 @ Andorra @ 3:45 ET - Romania has qualified in 2000 and 2008 and 2016 and keeps alternating with years like 2004 and 2012 and 2020 in which they did not qualify. That said, they will bring a little extra edginess here as a result and I expect a blowout victory over an outclassed foe. Andorra is at home which is keeping this line more manageable but Romania still should dominate and win this by 2 or more goals. If you saw Moldova barely tie Faroe Islands yesterday (penalty kick at 87' mark) note that essentially that is the same level of Moldova club that beat Andorra last June while Romania hammered neighboring Moldova last November by a 5-0 count. That is just one example of the disparity between these clubs. Another is that Romania has beaten Andorra 4 straight times by a combined score of 14 to 1. This one also has blowout written all over it and so I am willing to lay the price here to have the goal line at less than 2 in this one. ROMANIA -1.5 -150

NCAA Friday Xavier Musketeers +4.5 vs Texas Longhorns @ 9:45 ET - As I mentioned in fading the Longhorns with Penn State +5.5 last weekend, "Texas is playing great and deserves all the accolades they are getting for sure. I have been riding with the Longhorns quite often this season. However, this is a much tougher match-up for them. They go from facing a #15 seed in Colgate to facing a tough Big Ten team that just knocked off a solid SEC team in impressive fashion. Penn State did not just beat the Aggies Thursday, they dominated in that game from mid-first period on." Now UT faces a tough Big East team in the form of Xavier. After UConn trashed cold-shooting Arkansas yesterday, the Big East could have 3 teams in the Elite 8 if they upset Texas here and if Creighton knocks off Princeton tonight as well. The point is that the Big East was very tough this season. I know the Big 12 was certainly very strong this season too but if Kansas State did not win in OT yesterday and if UT did get upset here, they would have no one in the Elite 8 while Big East would have 3 of the 8 teams (barring major upset with Princeton tonight). Note that 6 of 9 Musketeers losses this season have been by 4 or less points. They won both games this season with Connecticut including one by a margin of 10 plus they beat Creighton by more than 20 in one of their meetings with them. The Longhorns last 24 games have featured only 10 Texas wins by more than 5 points. I like are chances here in going against the higher seed here and feel Xavier has the perfect underdog mindset entering this one. All the pressure on Texas here and I feel it catches up with them in this one. XAVIER +4.5

NCAA Friday Miami Hurricanes +7.5 vs Houston Cougars @ 7:15 ET - I have plenty of respect for Houston as the Cougars are a rock solid team that is among the best in the nation this season. However, I expect the points to prove to be too much here. As I noted in my play on Miami over Indiana in the 2nd round: "I look for the Hurricanes defense to help lead the way to an upset here and to be the difference-maker in this one. Miami had to turn up the heat on defense to get past Drake in the first round. The Bulldogs are a solid team and it was impressive and a big confidence booster that the Canes were down 7 at one point in 2nd half and rallied but then fell behind by 8 and again had to rally! The Hurricanes outscored Drake by 16-1 to close out the game and I like the leadership, poise and defensive intensity seen from the Canes in that one. Keep in mind, losses for the Canes have been few and far between this season and, prior to losing in the ACC tourney to Duke, the Hurricanes 4 losses in the 12-4 stretch leading into that game were by an average margin of just 2 points! Given that fact, though I expect the upset here, we'll grab the couple points just in case!" So the point is, there is a lot to like about how this Hurricanes team has been playing such competitive basketball for such a long period of time. Yes they may fall short of the upset this time as, of course, Houston is better than Indiana. However, we do not need an upset to cash our ticket here. Grab the points in this one!  MIAMI +7.5

NCAA Thursday Florida Atlantic Owls +5.5 vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 9 ET - The Owls are from the smaller conference but are a very confident team that has been scoring very well and confidence building with each win here in March. Florida Atlantic faced a pair of SEC teams early this season and lost to Ole Miss but beat Florida. The Owls beat a solid Memphis team here in the tourney and then beat the Fairleigh Dickinson team that knocked off Purdue and that win over the Boilermakers was no fluke. Tennessee is playing very solid defense but they did lose 7 of last 12 games this season before the NCAA Tourney. The Volunteers then won their first game of the tourney by only 3 points even though it was against a #13 seed. Then Duke made just 6 of 22 three pointers and only 4 free throws in the game the Vols won by 13 last weekend. That is not happening again here against this Owls team. FAU is making 37% of threes this season and averaging 9 made per game. The Owls also average about a dozen free throws made per game. The way these teams match-up it could be a bit of a low-scoring grinder which means even more value with the sizable points here and I look for the Owls to surprise in this one. FLORIDA ATLANTIC +5.5

NCAA Thursday Top Play Arkansas Razorbacks +4.5 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 7:15 ET - Huskies beat a MAAC team and a WCC team to get here. Certainly St Mary's is a solid team year in and year out in recent seasons but they play in the WCC where they face Gonzaga but then a bunch of much weaker teams throughout the season. OF course the Iona team that UConn beat in round one also faces a lot of weaker competition since they come from the MAAC. The point is that UConn might be over-rated here and certainly is a little over-valued in my opinion. The Huskies did beat Alabama early this season but then went 2-5 against ranked teams the rest of the season. Also, heading into the NCAA Tourney, UConn went 11-8 overall after starting the season 14-0. Arkansas, on the other hand, had to beat a Big Ten school and Big 12 team to get here as they knocked off Illinois and then Kansas. So, the point is, the Razorbacks might be putting things together at the right time. Also, Arkansas was down by double digits in the 2nd half of their win over the Jayhawks so they had to show great resiliency in bouncing back for the win. Nick Smith is their #2 leading scorer this season in terms of ppg (missed a lot of the season) and the Razorbacks won that game over Kansas despite him scoring 0 points! Love the fact that Arky beat the Jayhawks despite making only 3 of 15 three pointers. The Huskies had very hot shooting against the Gaels and they can't keep shooting at that clip and the gritty Razorbacks give them a helluva test here and possibly even score the upset. We'll grab the points just in case. Top Play ARKANSAS +4.5

NIT Wednesday UAB Blazers +1.5 @ Vanderbilt Commodores @ 7 ET - This line is right around a pick'em even though UAB plays in CUSA and Vanderbilt plays in the SEC and even though Commodores are at home for this one. Note that Vandy is 14-5 at home this season while the Blazers are just 6-5 in road games this season. When you consider all of these factors and then you are staring at a line in the pick'em range, I think this tells you all you need to know here. This is a major trap the way I see it and I am not following for it. Play the road team that has the mediocre road record and is from the smaller conference. Go against the home team that is so strong as a host and is from the bigger conference. This is a contrarian play but given all these variables you can see why I like it and this is something that has worked well at a high cash-in rate in the past. More of the same here. Note that the Blazers have won 14 of 16 games and have won easily in each of their two NIT games. As for the Commodores they had to rally from a big 2nd half deficit to down the Wolverines. I know they earned it with the comeback win but that big win for Vanderbilt over Michigan could be their defining moment of the tourney that leaves them finished here. I am backing the road team most will not want here. UAB +1.5

NBA Tuesday Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 10:40 ET - Both teams off a win that followed a loss but the real key here the way I see it is that this is a double revenge spot for the Clippers. LA lost both games against the Thunder this season but both of those meetings were in Oklahoma City. Now they finally get a chance at home facing OKC. The Thunder are 13-21 in road games this season and are just 2-4 SU last 6 road games and one of those wins was against a horrible Spurs team. That said, you can see the value we have with the home team here. Also, the last 6 losses for the Thunder have come by an average margin of 13 points per defeat. The Clippers have won 5 of 6 and the average margin of victory has been about 10 points. Look for this double-revenge spot to result in a home win by a double digit margin. LA CLIPPERS -6.5

NIT Tuesday Top Play Oregon Ducks -4.5 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 9 ET - The Ducks have been winning even without their top three guys. That shows the depth of this Oregon team. Now, with a win at home over the Badgers Tuesday, the Ducks can head to Las Vegas for the quarterfinals and a potential shot at the NIT Championship should they win in the semi-finals there. First things first though...the Ducks must win this game to get there. That said, I would not be surprised to see 1 or 2 or possibly even all 3 of the top players back for Oregon in this one. Either way, I like the Ducks here but don't be surprised if Dante, Couisnard, and/or Richardson are back for this game. Note that Oregon is 15-5 in home games this season while the Badgers have a losing record in road games this season. Facing the Ducks in Eugene is much different than facing the likes of Liberty and Bradley in Madison. That is no disrespect to the Flames or Braves but, the point is, the travel and facing a very tough Pac-12 team on the road is absolutely a big deal here. Lay the points here. Top Play OREGON -4.5

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -7.5 vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:10 ET - The 76ers have won 8 straight games. They also have revenge here from a home loss to the Bulls in early January. Not only did Philly lose that game, Chicago got the better of them by a double digit margin. This will be a payback game! The Sixers are on a 36-10 run and Embiid missed that 14 point loss to the Bulls. Looking at Philly's last 46 games they had only one loss by a bigger margin than that one. In other words, the 76ers have not forgotten and you know Embiid will be ready to lead the way here for the Sixers to get some payback. Chicago has been playing well of late but let's not forget they are just 13-21 SU in road games this season. Also, the Bulls average margin of defeat last 14 games is 9 and I am looking for a double digit loss here as Philly wants to return the favor for what Chicago did to them the last time they met here. These teams meet again in Chicago on Wednesday so the Bulls have the full focus and attention of the Sixers here and the result should be a home blowout by a double digit margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA -7.5

CBB Monday 10* Top Play Charlotte 49ers -5.5 vs Milwaukee Panthers @ 7:30 ET - Not only do the 49ers have a built-in rest edge here since they played on Saturday while the Panthers played yesterday on Saturday, note that Milwaukee had to go to OT to get that win yesterday. I feel UWM could be a little worn out here as they also like to play at a faster tempo than Charlotte. The 49ers are capable of slowing this game down and frustrating the Panthers with solid defense. Note that Charlotte has held teams in the 50s and 60s in many of their recent games. At the same time, Milwaukee has allowed 82 ppg in going 4-3 last 7 games and no that does not include OT points of course. This is the time of year when a team with stronger defensive capabilities can really turn up the heat on an opponent and frustrate them and that is what I see happening here. I feel there was a depth of stronger teams in the CUSA that were deeper and stronger then what we saw in the Horizon League this season. I am always hesitant to lay points and love backing dogs but this is absolutely the right situation to expect a blowout win by double digits for the home team. 10* CHARLOTTE -5.5

NCAA Sunday Top Play Miami Hurricanes +2 vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 8:40 ET - The Hoosiers are off an 11-point win over Kent State Friday. Indiana must have dominated, right? Hardly! The Golden Flashes were a ridiculous 15 of 48 from the field inside the arc. To put that in proper perspective, the Hoosiers made 24 of 48 from inside the 3-point line. So, give Indiana credit for sure but at the same time you can expect there will be no such disparity here. Repeat of that is unlikely and though I am extremely impressed with Trayce Jackson-Davis, as most everyone is, the fact is that the more complete overall team in this match-up is Miami. I look for the Hurricanes defense to help lead the way to an upset here and to be the difference-maker in this one. Miami had to turn up the heat on defense to get past Drake in the first round. The Bulldogs are a solid team and it was impressive and a big confidence booster that the Canes were down 7 at one point in 2nd half and rallied but then fell behind by 8 and again had to rally! The Hurricanes outscored Drake by 16-1 to close out the game and I like the leadership, poise and defensive intensity seen from the Canes in that one. Keep in mind, losses for the Canes have been few and far between this season and, prior to losing in the ACC tourney to Duke, the Hurricanes 4 losses in the 12-4 stretch leading into that game were by an average margin of just 2 points! Given that fact, though I expect the upset here, we'll grab the couple points just in case! Top Play MIAMI +2

NBA Sunday Milwaukee Bucks -8 vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:10 ET - Bucks are off a loss. Raptors have won 3 straight but all those games were at home for Toronto. The Raptors have not traveled well at all this season. Milwaukee has been fantastic off a loss for months now. That said, this is the ideal spot to the lay the points with a home team poised to win this by at least a dozen points. In their recent loss to the Pacers, the Bucks saw Indiana come back from double digit 3rd quarter deficit. But it was all because the Pacers shot lights out from 3 point land. It was a crazy performance as Indiana simply would not miss from outside. For the game, the Pacers outscored the Bucks by 33 points from 3-point land. As you would guess, that was the difference in the game. But, after one like that, you know Milwaukee is going to be hungry to bounce back here. The Bucks are 7-1 last 8 times when off a loss. 16 of Bucks last 21 wins by at least 8 points. The home team has been the winner in 12 of last 14 Raptors games. Toronto's last 5 losses have featured 4 by at least 8 points. Given the situation and the Raptors road struggles, I sense a bounce back blowout from a well-rested Bucks team as they have had since Thursday night to stew about the loss and get fired up for this game. MILWAUKEE -8

NCAA Sunday Kansas State Wildcats +3 vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 2:40 ET - I fell short with my play on Providence Friday but will come right back with a play against Kentucky again here as the situation is similar so some of this write-up may be familiar to you as well. This line has moved toward Kentucky and I understand the move. This is a contrarian play on my part. People are looking at a rock solid UK team and Kentucky is annually one of the top programs in the country. They also see a #6 seed laying a small number to a #3 seed that had the benefit of facing a #14 seed in round one. They also see that Kentucky dominated the boards against Providence. However, that will not happen against this Kansas State team but yet people also see a K-St team that entered this tourney losers of 2 straight and also 6 of last 7 road games. So what do I see? I see odds makers that are sharp! This Kansas State team is a #3 seed with good reason and is the real deal. The Big 12 is a tough conference. Keep in mind too that Kentucky had lost 2 of 3 entering the tournament and both losses were to Vanderbilt. The Commodores are a solid team for sure but they are not in the Big Dance for a reason. Payback time for us here after losing with the Friars Friday when we went against Kentucky. I feel this game has an excellent shot to be an outright upset here but we'll grab the points just in case. KANSAS STATE +3

English FA Cup Sunday Manchester United -1 -145 vs Fulham @ 12:30 ET - I like the ability to get Manchester United at -1 goal here. They should dominate this one in the quarterfinals. They have gone 4-0 with one draw in their last 5 meetings with Fulham and they won those 4 matches by a an average score of 3-1 which is the type of match I am expecting here. Looking at EPL results for guidance here, note that Manchester United has lost just once in 13 home matches this season and has outscored the opposition 24 to 8. As for Fulham, they have 6 road losses in their 13 EPL matches away from home and this is, of course, a tough match-up. Overall, in all competitions, Man U has allowed a TOTAL of only ONE goal in last THREE matches while Fulham has allowed THREE goals in EACH of last TWO matches! Look for a home blowout here. MANCHESTER UNITED -1 -145

NCAA Saturday Northwestern Wildcats +7.5 @ UCLA Bruins @ 8:40 ET - I often like to refer to the saying that the odds makers are the sharpest people in the room. The point is that, as we all know, the numbers they put out are so often spot on. That said, the low total on this game is telling you that this game is very likely to be grinder. Both these teams are solid defensively. That said, I love having sizable points in a low-scoring grinder and here we can get 7.5 with a Wildcats team that has been playing very solid basketball for a long time. Northwestern just beat a solid Boise State team while higher-seeded UCLA had a much easier draw in the first round. Of course they earned it but I feel that could come back to bite the Bruins here. This Wildcats team is so strong and feisty and so battle-tested. I was a little down on the Pac-12 this season and think the Big Ten was much deeper. That is not to say the Bruins are not the class of the Pac-12 or that they are not very strong because they absolutely are. But, the point is, they did not face the depth of quality opponents that the Wildcats had to deal with on a regular basis throughout the conference portion of the campaign. Note too that Northwestern had a 1-point loss to Auburn in non-conference action and of the only 4 losses they have had since early February, the Wildcats had 2 losses in OT and another loss by just 4 points. This Cats team is tough to blowout and I expect this game to go to the wire so we have excellent value here with the points. NORTHWESTERN +7.5

NCAA Saturday Penn State Nittany Lions +5.5 vs Texas Longhorns @ 7:45 ET - Texas is playing great and deserves all the accolades they are getting for sure. I have been riding with the Longhorns quite often this season. However, this is a much tougher match-up for them. They go from facing a #15 seed in Colgate to facing a tough Big Ten team that just knocked off a solid SEC team in impressive fashion. Penn State did not just beat the Aggies Thursday, they dominated in that game from mid-first period on. They took the lead at that point, widened it by half-time, and then no matter how hard Texas A & M tried to battle back the Nittany Lions just kept on answering. Yes, Andrew Funk shot lights out in that game but keep in mind it was at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines and this game is too. That means it is unlikely he completely cools off here. Plus even if he just shoots a more normal shooting percentage in that game it still would have led to a PSU win as they won that game by 17. That said, I also certainly like having the 5.5 points on our side in this one. The Lions last 4 losses are by an average margin of just 4.8 points and this is a team that has won 9 of last 11 games too. All the pressure on Texas here and I feel it catches up with them in this one. PENN STATE +5.5

NCAA Tourney TOP PLAY Friday Kent State Golden Flashes +4.5 vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 9:55 ET - The Hoosiers have a big-time star in Trayce Jackson-Davis. He had another huge game in the Big Ten Tourney against Penn State. That is the good news. The bad news is that the Hoosiers still lost the game as the Nittany Lions prevailed. As for Kent State, they are not adverse to playing with the big boys so to speak. Yes, the Golden Flashes are a MAC team but they faced both Houston and Gonzaga in non-conference action this season. Kent State put a scare into both the Cougars and the Bulldogs before falling just short in each game by an average margin of only points. That said, Indiana is a rock solid team but they are not quite on the level of  Gonzaga and Houston as those teams have only lost a combined 8 games this season. As for the Hoosiers, they started this season 7-0 and have since gone 15-11. Also, if you look at Indiana's last 9 games entering this tournament, they have only 2 wins by more than 3 points! There is great value here with the Golden Flashes getting 4.5 points in this one. Kent only lost 3 non-conference match-ups this season and the 3 teams have a combined record of 90-12! These guys can play with anyone and will not be intimidated here and have veteran leadership with 3 seniors leading the way. TOP PLAY Kent State +4.5

NBA Friday Atlanta Hawks -4 vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:40 ET - The Warriors have been horrible on the road this season. The Hawks are solid at home. Golden State will be without the suspended Draymond Green for this one. Additionally, GS could be without Steph Curry due to a left thumb injury. Even if he plays, Curry just scored 50 points at LA against the Clippers and the Warriors still lost the game by 8 points. That is ridiculous but it shows you just how mediocre this GS team is these days. Atlanta takes advantage. The Hawks are off B2B losses but are 6-0 SU the last 6 times they have entered a game off B2B losses. Also, 4 of the last 5 of those wins in that situation came by a margin of at least 5 points. Considering all the Warriors issues right now, this one should too. ATLANTA -4

NCAA Tourney Friday Providence Friars +4.5 vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7:10 ET - This line has moved toward Kentucky and I understand the move. This is a contrarian play on my part. People are looking at a rock solid Wildcats team and UK is annually one of the top programs in the country. They also see a #6 seed laying a small number to a #11 seed. They also see a Providence team that enters this tourney losers of 3 straight. So what do I see? I see odds makers that are sharp! This Friars team is the real deal. The Big East is a tough conference. Keep in mind too that Kentucky has lost 2 of 3 and both losses were to Vanderbilt. The Commodores are a solid team for sure but they are not in the Big Dance for a reason. I also like the fact here that Bryce Hopkins is now a star player for Providence after not getting much playing time in Kentucky. Watch him show up big here against his former club as he has been huge the for Friars and you know he is relishing this opportunity. Payback time for him here. Hopkins and the Friars have an excellent shot at the upset here but we'll grab the points just in case. PROVIDENCE +4.5

NCAA Friday Pittsburgh Panthers +5 vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 3:10 ET - As mentioned in my write-up on Pittsburgh in Tuesday's win over Mississippi State, the Panthers opened the season with a 1-3 mark so they had won 75% of their games (21-7 run) prior to the loss to big bad Duke in the ACC Tourney. I realize the Cyclones also played powerful Kansas in their Big 12 Tourney loss, but the point is simply that Pitt has plenty of confidence here and yet one could argue that Iowa St has become accustomed to mediocrity this season based on their current 6-11 run since their 13-2 start. We have value here with a scrappy ACC team that is going to play very hard in this one and be very difficult for Iowa State to put away. At the same time, I feel the pressure is more on Iowa State here as they advance all the way to the Sweet 16 last year so expectations are high and the pressure is on the Cyclones to avoid an early exit. Conversely, the Panthers are a team on the rise this season playing without fear or pressure after last season's ugly 11-21 disaster. PITTSBURGH +5

NCAA Tourney Thursday Penn State Nittany Lions +2.5 or +3 vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 9:55 ET - This is a contrarian play but you can just sense what is about to happen if you are a believer in the contrarian theory like I am. The thing is the Aggies were bitter with the committee last season and then perhaps that resulted in them being under-seeded here this season. But how about what that has set up for them? A win here and they likely would be facing Texas next unless Colgate pulls off a monumental upset. So the point is that it is almost unavoidable that Texas A & M already has one eye on facing big-time in-state rival Longhorns. Yes they do not meet often like they did before the Aggies bolted to the SEC but it is still a big rivalry in Texas. That said, don't be surprised if there is a slight distraction here for the Aggies. That said, all it takes is a little distraction and a solid Big Ten team like Penn State can swoop in and take advantage. The Aggies just got hammered by Alabama by nearly 20 points in the SEC Championship Game while the Nittany Lions lost by only 2 points to the Nittany Lions. Each of last 5 losses by PSU were by only a single digit margin. This line simply looks funny to me and I feel we are getting excellent situation to back the Lions for the mild upset because the odds makers are telling us something here with this very low line on the Aggies in this one. PENN STATE +2.5 or +3

NCAA Thursday Texas Longhorns -13 vs Colgate Raiders @ 7:25 ET - I know that Colgate has strong shooters but Texas is so strong defensively and just beat Kansas by 20 points to capture the Big 12 title. The Raiders lost by just 7 in the Big Dance last year but faced a Wisconsin team that certainly was built much differently than this Longhorns team is. Also, the prior year Colgate lost by 17 to Arkansas in the NCAA Tourney. Also, I like the fact that this line has ticked down a little bit. Keep in mind, UT has allowed only 55.5 points last 4 games. Colgate has won 9 straight games but the level of competition different of course plus, in the last 7 victories, the Raiders have allowed an average of 71 ppg! That is much different than the Horns recent average and then when you factor in the difference in level of competition you can see why I am expecting this one to be a blowout in the 20-point range. Fade the line move here. TEXAS -13

NCAA Wednesday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack +2.5 vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 9:10 ET - The Mountain West was quite solid this season and that is absolutely a factor in this play for me. Yes, Arizona State comes from the perceived tougher conference since they are from the Pac-12. However, the Sun Devils started the season 15-3. That means ASU is entering this game having lost 9 of 16 games. Indeed, Arizona State is on a 7-9 run so it is hard to be excited about this team right now in my opinion. As for Nevada, they have lost 3 straight games but the last two were in OT and one of those was in double-OT! That said, very tight losses for the Wolf Pack and all of this preceded by a a 22-7 start to the season! Of their 10 losses his season, 4 were by a single digit margin in regulation and another 3 were decided in overtime! They are ultra-competitive and match up well with the Sun Devils. That said, I am expecting an outright upset here but a loss by just a 1 or 2 point margin would not shock me either and we would still get the cash. Roll with the underdog Wolf Pack in this one! 10* NEVADA +2.5

NCAA Wednesday 10* Top Play Fairleigh Dickinson Knights +2.5 vs Texas Southern Tigers @ 6:40 ET - The Knights got a new head coach and he has been a winner in his career and brought the winning to Fairleigh Dickinson immediately. It was a big turnaround from last season for the Knights and similar to my successful selection on Pittsburgh yesterday (Panthers also off a turnaround season) I feel Fairleigh Dickinson will follow the same storyline here. They have won 16 of 25 games since a slow start to the season. Conversely, the Tigers are just 14-20 this season and went 7-11 in a weak SWAC and plus lost their 3 final regular season games before getting hot in their conference tourney. Give them credit for making it but this team is so much weaker than the one that went 18-12 last season and then knocked off Texas A & M Corpus Christi the First Four last March. That said, there is a reason this line opened up around a pick'em on Texas Southern. People like them with the experience edge here but I am fading that as I like the coaching of the Knights and they were the stronger overall team winning 64% of their last 25 games and now have built confidence. Grab the points but we should not need them. 10* FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON +2.5

EPL Wednesday 10* Top Play Brighton & Hove Goal Line -1 -130 vs Crystal Palace @ 3:30 ET - Crystal Palace has been horrible of late not only in terms of scoring goals but in terms of even registering a shot on goal. That said, just can not see them keeping up with a Brighton & Hove club that is on their home pitch and has had plenty of multi-goal outputs this season. I am looking for a 2-0 type final here. Brighton & Hove still seeking redemption for frustrating 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace in mid-February. This is payback time here and Palace has not scored in 3 straight matches while the hosts in this one have scored 3 goals per match last two matches. 10* BRIGHTON Goal Line -1 -130

NCAA Tuesday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Panthers +2.5 vs Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 9:10 ET - I hesitate to oversimplify things but I can not help myself here so I will. First off, this line was around a pick'em and is now up to Mississippi State favored by 2.5 points. I love fading line moves and now at the risk of oversimplifying here it is. The Bulldogs opened the season 11-0 so we are talking about a team here that is 10-12 their last 22 games. Conversely, the Panthers opened the season with a 1-3 mark so they had won 75% of their games (21-7 run) prior to the loss to big bad Duke in the ACC Tourney. I realize the Bulldogs also played powerful Alabama in their SEC Tourney loss. but the point is simply that Pitt has plenty of confidence here and yet one could argue that Miss St has become accustomed to mediocrity this season their their run since that 11-0 start. I also like the fact that both teams faced a solid Vandy team this season and the Panthers were ahead by 1 when the Commodores sank two free throws with 1 second left to win the game. Conversely, the Bulldogs were down quite big much of the 2nd half in their 5 point loss at Vandy which felt not even as close as that final score shows. We have value here with a scrappy ACC team that is going to play very hard here and be very hard to put away. At the same time, I feel the pressure is more on Mississippi State here as they lost in first round of NIT last year and are desperate to fend off another early exit. Conversely, the Panthers are a team on the rise this season playing without fear or pressure after last season's ugly 11-21 disaster. 10* PITTSBURGH +2.5

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets +1.5 @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:40 ET - These teams recently met in Denver and the Nuggets won that game. However, they have since lost 3 straight games. That has some significance here for sure because Denver has never lost 4 straight games this entire season. Also, the Nuggets have been on the road on a losing streak of at least 2 games just 2 times this entire season. Both times they won the next game and I expect that trend to continue here as they remain perfect in this situation and avoid what would be their first 4-game losing streak of the season. I expect Jamal Murray to play here. I am aware of his injury but feel he did not return in the most recent game more due to precautionary reasoning than anything else. Looking to avoid their longest losing streak of the season, Nuggets likely to put Murray back on the floor tonight. Either way, they should topple a Raptors team that also has struggled of late and, long-term has been struggling much more than this solid Nuggets team. Denver had won 4 straight and 12 of 15 before their current 3-game skid. Toronto, on the other hand, is just 12-12 last 24 games and has essentially been only a mediocre team this season. 10* DENVER +1.5

NCAA Tuesday 10* Top Play Southeast Missouri State Redhawks +4 vs Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders @ 6:40 ET - Lets face it. This is a match-up involving a pair of teams from a pair of weak conferences. I like a couple things though that sway this match-up in favor of the Redhawks. First off, we are getting 4 points and is nice to have the points on your side in what could be a tight finish. Secondly, speaking of tight finishes, SE Mo St had a 6 point lead with about a minute to go in their conference championship game. That game ended up going to OT and the Redhawks even trailed by 4 at one point in the OT. They rallied to win the game by 7 and punch their ticket to the NCAA Tourney. That kind of game and the finish it had is a huge boost for confidence. Thirdly, and definitely a last but NOT least, all the pressure is on the Islanders here. Texas A&M CC is supposed to win this game. Not only because they are favored but because they were here last year too and lost to Texas Southern in the First Four. Simply put, the Islanders must win this game or it will be a a major disappointment. That, ladies and gentlemen, is huge pressure. Not only that, they lost Terrion Murdix to a season-ending injury in their Conference Championship Game win. He is finished for the season and their season will end tonight most likely anyway. He is their starting point guard and leads the team in assists AND steals AND at the guard position he is the top rebounder. This is a major loss you don't replace so fast. Look for a loose and relaxed Redhawks team to topple a pressure-filled injury-hampered Islanders team in this one. 10* SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE +4

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5 @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:40 ET - Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable with a back injury and will not be 100 percent if he even does play in this game. I know Rudy Gobert is on the report as questionable for the Wolves but I would be very surprised if he did not play here. Either way, I like Minny in this solid scheduling spot. Timberwolves are coming off an OT loss and are 2-0 this season when off an OT loss and they are rested here. Minnesota is also actually 5-0 last 5 times they are entering a game off a loss by 7 or less points. Atlanta is off a loss so you might be thinking bounce back for them here too. But couple things about that. The Hawks gave up 134 points in that loss. Also, they have had very few standalone losses of late. The fact is when Atlanta is off win and then loses a game it has often been followed by a 2nd straight loss. Indeed, this has happened 5 of the last 6 times and I expect it to happen again here but we will grab the points as added insurance too. 10* MINNESOTA +5.5

CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers +6 vs Houston Cougars @ 3:15 ET - Ton of value here with Memphis. The Tigers are 25-8 this season and 2 of the losses came in OT (one was double OT) and overall, Memphis has only 2 loss by more than 6 points this entire season out of 33 games! One of those was by 7 points and one of them was by 8 points. So the point is, getting 6 points here, we are virtually guaranteed of at least having a chance to cover this game in terms of how all 33 of their other 33 games have played out this season! I like the double revenge angle here and the fact that Memphis was able to coast yesterday in a win by a 40-point margin. The Cougars are, of course, one of the best teams in the nation but the Tigers have given them more trouble than anyone else this season and this is one of those situations where third time absolutely could be the charm. Either way, even if the #1 ranked team in the country does not lose this game SU look for them to at least lose it ATS. Grab the points with the underdog in this one. 10* MEMPHIS +6

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics -4.5 @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:40 ET - So the Celtics are off a big home win Wednesday that ended a 3-games losing streak and now need to start another winning streak and they have had two days off prior to this game and start a 7-game road trip. They are fully focused, given the situation, on a very successful road trip and that should begin with taking advantage of a fatigued - mentally and physically - Hawks team. Atlanta not only is in a B2B spot but they are playing 3rd game in 4 days and those 2 wins were over a Wizards team that was right behind them in the division standings. Put another way, if Wizards had won both those games instead of Hawks, Washington would now be in front of Atlanta in the standings instead of it being the other way around. That said, the series in over the Wiz not only fatigued the Hawks physically but perhaps mentally too. 10* BOSTON -4.5

NHL Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line +1.5 -105 @ Pittsburgh Penguins @ 3:35 ET - This is a rivalry game and the Flyers seem to lead the universe when it comes to 1-goal losses. That said, ton of value with the puck line here as Philly looks to make up for a 4-1 loss to the Pens in their meeting earlier this season. Not only do the Flyers have a knack for 1-goal losses, Pittsburgh just has not been overly impressive this season and blowout wins for them have been few and far between. In fact, the Penguins have lost 20 of last 34 games. Of those 34 games, only 6 have been Pittsburgh wins by more than a 1-goal margin. So that means if you took +1.5 goals against the Pens their last 34 games you have a glowing 28-6 record! Considering the rivalry situation and the upper office firing the Flyers organization just delivered to send a message, there is a ton of value with this puck line at +1.5 goals! We'll take it! 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -105

CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Vanderbilt +6 vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 3:30 ET - The Commodores are starting to believe they can do this! This Vanderbilt team has been red hot for a long-time and has carried that into this tournament and they will not let up here! Vandy has won 10 of 11 games and now just knocked off Kentucky. Also, unlike A & M, they did not have to rally back in yesterday's action like the Aggies did. Certainly there is a chance that the Texas A & M rally yesterday took a little something out of them for today. The Aggies were down double digits in the 2nd half of their win over Arkansas. Remember they were also losing to Alabama with under 5 minutes to go in their prior game in this SEC tourney. So the point is, how much will the Aggies have left here PLUS it is the Aggies that are laying 6 points in this match-up. I love having the points with this scrappy underdog Vandy. The Commodores led yesterday's 2nd half throughout in the eventual 7 point win over Kentucky. That was also the case in their win over LSU. This team is truly the definition of a "live dog" in a match-up like this with the Aggies. Yes, Texas A & M won the regular season meeting but they were at home for that. Also, that 6-point loss was a tie game with less than 2 minutes to go. 10* VANDERBILT +6

EPL Saturday 10* Top Play Tottenham -1.5 goals +125 vs Nottingham Forest @ 10 AM ET - Tottenham has played horribly of late so this is the perfect spot for them to bounce back in a big way. The Hotspur are at home and hosting a Nottingham Forest club that has won only one road match all season and been outscored by an aggregate of 29 to 3 in away matches on the season! I know they have been more competitive of late but you still can not ignore their road struggles. Tottenham has struggled badly in non-league action but within the league and in home matches they have been solid. The Hotspur have won 9 of 13 home matches and scored an average of 2 goals per match. So in this one they should get a multi-goal win the way I see it. History is on their side with each of the last 4 meetings (including two recent ones in 2022) featuring multi-goal wins for Tottenham. The aggregate score of the victories was 10 to 1 and this shapes up to be another blowout. 10* TOTTENHAM -1.5 goals +125

CBB Friday 10* Top Play Marquette Golden Eagles +4 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 6:30 ET - Marquette won in overtime yesterday so they have no chance to win this game. Seriously that is what the betting markets seem to think with the Huskies now a 4 point favorite in this one. Both Connecticut and the Golden Eagles had scares yesterday and certainly Marquette had the tougher time. However, the fact the Huskies nearly blew all of a 26 point lead is a bit of a concern. Yes they won the game by 7 but they outscored the Friars by 21 points from three-point land. In other words, that was certainly a factor in the final margin. Also, I like the fact that the shooting edge helped mask the fact they had twice as many turnovers as Providence did. The point is that UConn is now over-valued here. I like the fact that the Golden Eagles did not shoot well from beyond the arc yesterday and yet still hung on for the win. All of this has led to line value here as this is a team that relies on its outside shot and odds suggest they will shoot better here today and the Huskies will regress. That is simply a regression to the mean today on Friday. 10* MARQUETTE +4

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors -2.5 @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:30 ET - These teams do not like each other. This insures that both teams are certainly motivated to win this game and you absolutely can not say that about many NBA regular season games especially in today's NBA of guys sitting out games or even taking games off, so to speak, when they are actually playing in those games! So the point is we have the motivation factor working for both teams in this one. What does that all mean here? It means Warriors should win this game in a road rout. They are the healthier team and the Grizzlies are a mess right now because of the combined injury situation and then the Ja Morant situation off the court. The fact Morant is still out and this team has been distracted by everything going on plus the fact this team is still without a couple key contributors (Adams still out and role player Clarke lost for the season Friday), this Memphis team could get blown out here even though they are at home. Steph Curry now back for the Warriors but Golden State is fired up coming off B2B losses. The Grizzlies have lost 13 of 20 games overall. The Warriors are 8-2 the last 10 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. Lay the short number here. 10* GOLDEN STATE -2.5

CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns -6 vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7 ET - The Cowboys knocked off the rival Sooners yesterday to advance to face the Longhorns today. Texas has the rest edge here and also a confidence edge since they knocked off Kansas to close out the regular season. The Horns also loaded with confidence as it pertains to this match-up thanks to knocking off Oklahoma State by a double digit margin in each of their two regular season meetings. Texas is having a fantastic season and only has 2 losses to unranked foes this season. The Longhorns performed well against ranked teams too but the point is they were practically unbeatable (16-2) in games against unranked foes. As for the Cowboys, they were 3-9 against ranked teams this season. Also, Oklahoma State had lost 5 straight games before winning their regular season finale and then opening the Big 12 tourney with a win over Oklahoma. Yes, we have the matter of covering the spread here but first key to that is getting a SU win and, based on the numbers above and the situation, you can see why I am confident of that. Each of the Cowboys last 5 road losses was by 8 or more points. 10* TEXAS -6 

UEFA Europa League, Round of 16 Thursday 10* Top Play Manchester United -1.5 goals +120 vs Real Betis @ 3 ET - Manchester United beat Barcelona 2-1 to advance to this state. Barcelona's only goal in that match came on a penalty kick. The point is that Barcelona is at the top of La Liga and vastly superior to Real Betis. If Man U was able to knock off the top team 2-1 they can definitely beat Real Betis by a multi-goal margin here at home. Manchester United has scored at least 2 goals in 14 straight home matches and has a long unbeaten run here too. They also enter this match off a humiliating 7-0 loss to Liverpool so you know the hosts are going to bring a very strong effort to this match as they look to get right back on track by dominating on their home pitch. Considering the embarrassing outcome against Liverpool, the hosts will be relentless here and should win comfortably by a multi-goal margin. 10* MANCHESTER UNITED -1.5 goals +120