Rickenbach NBA *10* Indiana Pacers +7 vs San Antonio @ 7:05 ET - There is no disputing that the Spurs are one of the top teams in the league. However, the books are starting to catch up with them and, that said, the value is now in fading the Spurs. They are on a 4-6 ATS run and are here they are being asked to cover 7 points on the road against a solid foe. I just don't see it happening. Taking a look at the Pacers last 19 games they are only 10-9. But in the 9 losses they have had only 3 defeats by more than 7 points. Indiana just does not get blown out and that is particularly true on their home floor. Even though the Pacers are off of an upset win as an underdog at Washington Saturday, Indiana is 5-1 ATS this season when off of an upset win. The Pacers also are a stellar 20-10 ATS in games against teams with a winning record this season. Over a span of two weeks from late Feb to mid March this is the only home game on the Pacers schedule. With a standalone game like this on the schedule you can bet that Indiana is going to make the most of their home floor. For the Spurs this is a tough scheduling spot as it is part of a 5 games in 7 days stretch and they have another road game at Minnesota on deck for tomorrow. The Pacers lost both meetings with the Spurs last season but each came by 6 points or less. With revenge from those tight defeats plus having lost this season's earlier meeting at San Antonio, a little payback is on order here. *10* INDIANA

Rickenbach March Madness *8* Hartford Hawks +18.5 @ Stony Brook @ 7 ET - I faded Stony Brook in the first round of this tourney and won easily with UMBC as the Retrievers actually were in line for a potential outright upset very late into the game before the Seawolves finally pulled away and notched the 10 point victory as a 23.5 point favorite. Here Stony Brook is again an over-inflated favorite in my opinion. The line is in the 19 point range and the Seawolves last 8 games has featured only one win by more than 19 points. Included in this stretch was a 13 points win over the Hawks. Hartford may provide an even bigger challenge tonight than they did in that game. The Hawks have won 3 of their last 5 games and that included a huge upset of Albany in the tourney opener. That big upset gives Hartford plenty of confidence as they prepare to face the Seawolves and the fact that there were four off days in between games has given the Hawks plenty of time to come down off of the emotional high of knocking off Albany. Rest assured the Hawks are fully prepared to now face a Seawolves team that knocked them out of this tournament two years ago. That loss came by just 5 points and only 1 of the last 5 meetings between these teams was decided by more than 15 points. Also, Hartford knocked off UMBC in both match-ups this season. That is the same Retrievers team that, although they had an ugly overall record just like the Hawks too, truly gave the Seawolves all they could handle Wednesday. Look for this Monday game to be just as close. Stony Brook doesn't play many lined games but they continue to be over-valued when they do and I look for the Seawolves to drop to 0-5 ATS on the season. As for the Hawks, they are 5-0 ATS the past three seasons in games against teams with a winning record. That makes this one a combined 10-0 ATS mark in favor of the road dog. *8* HARTFORD

Rickenbach March Madness #878 - *10* Top Play Florida Gulf Coast Eagles -8 vs Stetson @ 7 ET - Stetson have been "the story" so far in this tourney but let's not forget how it played out. In other words, I am predicting it comes to an end today because it has been a bit of a fluke. Any team can have one big game and get an upset win. That's exactly what happened when the Hatters upset New Jersey Tech in their opening game of this tourney. NJ Tech had been struggling to finish the season and they simply had an awful shooting performance lead to an upset win at the hands of Stetson. However, the next match-up for the Hatters is where they caught a break. Stetson faced a 12-20 Lipscomb team because they had gotten the upset in overtime against Jacksonville. The result of all this is that the Hatters now take a major step up in competition and face a much superior foe that is simply red hot right now. Florida Gulf Coast is off of back to back wins in this tournament and they have each come by double digit margins. This included a 33 point blowout win over a 22-10 North Florida team. The Eagles are playing their best basketball of the season, they have won 6 of their past 8 games and are loaded with confidence right now plus have home court edge here. Adding even more strength to this play is that the Eagles did get upset at Stetson in their regular season finale. That means a little payback is on order here and Florida Gulf Coast will take advantage of having home court for the rematch. The last time they hosted Stetson, the Eagles blasted them by 29 points. Another rout is likely here as Stetson's luck runs out. Keep in mind this game means much more to FGC than it does to Stetson. The Hatters, due to poor academic performance, can't go to the Big Dance even if they win this game. The Eagles will represent the Atlantic Sun Conference if they get the win Sunday but, if they lose it will go to the regular season conference champion which was North Florida. That is the same Ospreys team that Florida Gulf Coast just crushed by 33 points. The Eagles are simply too powerful and are the much better defense in this match-up. Stetson has allowed 83.1 points per game on the season which ranks as the worst in the conference. The Eagles allowed just 70 points per game which ranks as the #1 spot in the conference. Couple that with the home court edge and motivational edge and talent edge and this should be an absolute mauling Sunday. *10* FLORIDA GULF COAST

Rickenbach NCAAB #579 - *10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins +5.5 @ Indiana @ 4:30 ET - Maryland certainly holds the motivational edge here based on the current situation in the Big Ten standings. Also, the Terrapins are back on track after a rare, late-season lull that saw them lose back to back games when they were upset at home by Wisconsin and then suffered the letdown effect in their next game, a shocking loss at Minnesota. The Terps have since gotten back on track as they've won 2 of their last 3 games and have their offense rolling in high gear again. They will certainly pose a huge challenge to a Hoosiers team that could get caught still celebrating their big win at Iowa Tuesday. That was the 4th straight win for Indiana and it was a key win for the Hoosiers as it locked up the Big Ten regular season title. The Hoosiers are the only team in the Big Ten that, for the full season, does not have a home loss. The Terrapins are still ticked off about the late season lull that cost them in the Big Ten standings and this game is very important to Maryland as it relates to positioning for the conference tournament. With that said, the Terps would love nothing more than to hand the Hoosiers their first home loss of the season while also improving their seeding in the Big Ten standings. Indiana is 5-11 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. This is expected to be a rather high-scoring game and the Terrapins are 19-10 ATS the past three seasons (and 9-1 SU this season) in games with a posted total in the 140 to 149.5 range. Comparing these teams, Maryland is the better team defensively and the Terps have won each of the last two meetings. However, the Terrapins did lose ugly in a poor effort against the Hoosiers in their most recent visit to Indiana. Rest assured they've been constantly reminded of that heading into this meetings and with all the added motivation for the Terps here, the Hoosiers will be in an all-out war just to try and preserve their unblemished home record. Even if Indiana does that, I expect the victory to be by a very small margin. We have huge line value here with the hungry road dog in this one. *10* MARYLAND

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder -7 @ Milwaukee @ 3:35 ET - The Thunder have lost 6 of 8 games since the All Star break but Oklahoma City truly has played a brutal schedule. The Thunder are coming off of a loss at Golden State but playing the best team in the league on the road after losing on the road in a game in which you held a huge late lead (at LA against the Clips) the night before is absolutely a tough situation. Now that Oklahoma City has had two days off to regroup after the loss to the Warriors followed a stunning loss to the Clippers, I look for the Thunder to respond in a huge way Sunday. This is the only game that OKC has in a 5 day stretch as the Thunder have two days off after this game. There is no way that Oklahoma City won't be ready here and that is bad news for the Bucks. Milwaukee has been playing better for sure but they still are nowhere close to being on par with a team the caliber of the Thunder. The Bucks have been emphasizing a new offensive attack but, in the process, they've forgotten about playing defense. Milwaukee has allowed 47% or better from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. The Thunder defense got lit up by Golden State - then again...who doesn't against the Warriors? - but, prior to that, Oklahoma City had held 5 of their last 8 opponents under 45% from the field. The Thunder have the better defense, they have the more explosive offense, they are hungry and highly motivated for a win here, and the Bucks are off of a rare win. Set-ups don't get much better than this and the expected absence of Michael Carter-Williams is also going to impact Milwaukee Sunday. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves -5 vs Brooklyn @ 8:05 ET - I have been riding the Nets a lot in recent weeks as they are definitely improving and they have offered some nice value of late. However, this is a very tough spot for them and has the makings of an absolute blowout. It is hard enough for a team to play the 2nd night of a back after facing Denver but in this case it will be ultra tough. Not only is the Nets 2nd game on the road. Not only did the Nets get the outright upset last night. The game went into overtime and was an OT victory in the Mile High City for Brooklyn. I don't expect the Nets to have much left in the tank for tonight's game and the Wolves are absolutely not going to be in a hospitable mood here. The Timberwolves are off of a loss at Milwaukee last night and, after playing better in prior weeks, Minnesota has now lost three straight games for the first time in a month. That means we can expect an "A game" from the T-wolves tonight who are a rock solid 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. Brooklyn has lost 9 of 11 on the season when it is the 2nd game of a back to back and, in this case, off of an OT win at a very tough venue last night, it looks like the perfect spot for that record to drop to 2-10 on the season AND for the defeat to be a blowout loss to the hungry Wolves. Minnesota is 8-4 SU and ATS the past three seasons as  home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Nets are 15-34 SU (and 20-29 ATS) when off of an upset win as an underdog. *10* MINNESOTA

Rickenbach NBA *8* Indiana Pacers +2.5 @ Washington @ 7:05 ET - Home court hasn't meant much in this series. The road team has covered 12 of the last 15 meetings between these teams and that includes each of the last six. The Pacers seek revenge for an ugly 14 home loss in January and they catch the Wizards off of a deflating 25 point loss at Cleveland last night. That's the kind of defeat that can have a team hanging their heads and Washington is certainly a fragile team from a psyche standpoint. The Pacers are also coming off of a loss last night but they only lost by 7 at Charlotte. Though Indiana lost to the Hornets, the Pacers are the much better team on the defensive end in comparison with the Wizards. Indiana has used this to their advantage against the better scoring teams in the league this season and that is why the Pacers are 25-18 ATS this season in games against teams averaging 99 points or more per game. Indiana has won 6 of their past 7 against teams with a losing record and has a SU record the past three seasons combined of 80-39 in games against teams with a losing record. The Wizards are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. The Pacers are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 visits to Washington and the Wizards John Wall has downplayed his foot and ankle injury that he tweaked again in last night's loss. This is absolutely something he is likely to play through but also something that will impact his effectiveness and, as Wall goes so go the Wizards. *8* INDIANA

Rickenbach March Madness #698 - *8* Siena Saints -8 vs Manhattan @ 7 ET - Manhattan certainly has good history at this time of year in recent seasons. However, this season's Jaspers team is not nearly on par with those teams. That said, after a "fluke" performance in their MAAC opener I look for Manhattan to quickly come back down to earth as they get annihilated by a far superior Siena team. The Jaspers shot a ridiculous 63.5% overall from the field and 66.7% from three point land in their win over Marist Thursday. Now Manhattan goes from facing a Marist team that only managed 3 wins in conference action to facing a Siena team that won 20 games this season. The Saints also play this game with revenge. Siena lost at Manhattan in early January by 5 points but this came after blasting the Jaspers by 35 points in early December. As you can tell by those results, when Manhattan is "on" they were able to win by 5 while when the Saints were "on" they were able to win by 35 points! Siena is well rested here, catching the Jaspers with some false confidence after everything was just dropping into the bucket for them Thursday, and I look for the Saints superior defense to be a huge difference maker in Saturday's match-up. Siena allowed just 41% shooting from the field this season while Manhattan has allowed 47%. Also, the Saints are the better shooting time by about 4 percentage points as well. Siena is a stellar 8-0 ATS in March games the past two seasons. Also, this season the Saints are on a 6-2 ATS run in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. The Jaspers are 4-7 ATS this season when facing a team with a winning record. Last but certainly not least is that Siena gets the edge of playing this game at home in Albany, NY. A crowd of about 8,000 is expected for this game and the venue and the atmosphere for this MAAC Tourney game absolutely favors the Saints. *8* SIENA

Rickenbach NCAAB #578 *10* Top Play Virginia Tech +6.5 vs Miami (FL) @ 4 ET - The world has jumped on Miami here as I expected. The line opened up at a 5 and has been driven up to a 6.5 as of Saturday morning. The fact is that the Hokies are a very dangerous home dog in a spot like this and I believe the Hurricanes are over-valued here on the road. Miami has gone just 3-6 ATS in road games this season while Virginia Tech has gone 9-3 ATS in home games this season. Also, the Hokies are 13-4 ATS in ACC games this season. Virginia Tech comes into this game rolling with four straight wins including three of those being outright wins as an underdog with victories over solid Pitt and Florida State teams included! The Hokies catch Miami off of a huge road win at Notre Dame and that is the type of emotional high (a dominating road win over a big name school) that can leave a team a little flat in it's next game. Even though the Hurricanes have been hot let's not forget that they've had a home-heavy schedule of late. Prior to the road win at Notre Dame the Canes had played 7 of their last 11 at home. That said, their road performances in the ACC prior to the win over the Irish included a 3-4 performance with one of the wins coming by just 2 points, one by only 7 points, and the only blowout win being over a conference worst Boston College team. The road losses for Miami came by an average margin of 15 points per defeat. As you can see, the Hurricanes don't travel particularly well and I feel they are ripe for an upset here after the huge win at Notre Dame. That makes the value of the points with the Hokies absolutely the way to go here. As a road fave of 3.5 to 6 points this season, the Hurricanes have gone 0-3 ATS. *10* VIRGINIA TECH

Rickenbach NCAAB #573 - *8* Vanderbilt Commodores +4.5 @ Texas A & M @ Noon ET - Texas A & M is 16-1 in home games this season while Vanderbilt has gone 3-8 away from home. Given those straight-up records, the fact that the Aggies opened up as only a 4 point favorite in this one certainly looked "off", didn't it? The odds makers don't make many mistakes and while many will flock to the small home favorite here I believe the value is with a road dog that is playing their best basketball of the season. The Commodores have won 4 straight and 11 of their last 15 games. Vanderbilt has also covered 4 straight games. Vanderbilt beat the Aggies back in early February and that has started a stretch of 9 straight games where the Commodores have scored at least 74 points in every game. Needless to say the Vandy confidence is sky high right now and when you're scoring the ball as well as the Commodores are right now, that makes you a truly dangerous dog. The Aggies have also begun to heat up but when you look at their 9 games beginning with the road loss at Vandy, Texas A & M has been held to 71 points or less in more than half of those games. Over their last 6 games particularly the Aggies have struggled from the three point line. I see Texas A & M struggling with a Vandy offense that is ultra dangerous right now and this means this one likely goes down to the wire with a Commodores outright upset being no surprise at all in my mind. Vanderbilt is 7-4 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points the past three seasons combined. Texas A & M is 1-4 ATS this season in games with a posted total between 130 and 139.5 points. *8* VANDERBILT 

Rickenbach March Madness #873 - *10* Top Play Delaware Blue Hens +9 vs College of Charleston @ 8:30 ET - This is certainly the classic case of an "ugly dog" play and I see big value here with the Blue Hens. Delaware has matched up well with the College of Charleston in both regular season meetings. The Blue Hens beat the Cougars two weeks ago in Delaware and, in their prior meeting this season as the College of Charleston, it was a one point defeat for the Blue Hens. Neither game topped 121 points and it's tough for the favorite to get a lot of separation in uglier low-scoring games which is absolutely what I am predicting here. The Cougars haven't been the same since they lost Canyon Barry to a season-ending shoulder injury in January. College of Charleston started the season with a 9-3 record. Since then, without Barry, the Cougars have gone 7-10. Four of the Cougars last six wins have come by a margin of 7 points or less and, looking at their last 15 games overall, only 2 of the 15 were games that resulted in victories by more than a 7 point margin. You can see the value here with a big dog that has played the Cougars tough in each of their two regular season meetings. Also, the Blue Hens were in the Big Dance two seasons ago. Of course this team is nowhere close to the caliber of that team but the confidence level is higher than you might think for Delaware as they look to make a run in the tourney. It's always a fresh hope when a team has had a tough regular season and I look for Friday's game to be a close one. The Blue Hens are 3-0 ATS this season (and 6-1 ATS the last 3 seasons combined) in games with a posted total in the 120 to 129.5 range. The Cougars are 3-7 ATS this season (and 12-26 ATS the last 3 seasons combined) as a favorite. *10* DELAWARE 

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers +5 @ Toronto @ 7:35 ET - Toronto certainly is a solid team but I like to look for strong teams off of a bad loss and that is the situation here with Portland. The Trail Blazers are off of an ugly 23-point loss at Boston on Wednesday. Portland will be ready to respond in a huge way Friday. The Blazers, prior to the loss to the Celtics, had won 18 of their past 22 games. Portland went 16-6 ATS in those 22 games and they have held each of their last four opponents to 43% or less from the field. The Trail Blazers simply had a sloppy, ugly effort at Boston and they'll be ready to atone for that performance here. Toronto is off of a win and cover versus Utah Wednesday but the Raptors had previously failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 13. The Raptors are in a vulnerable spot here in my opinion because, even though they've been winning they've allowed their last 4 opponents to combine for a 50% shooting percentage from the field. Winning games even while playing subpar defense can lull teams into a false sense of confidence. In other words, the Raptors can run into trouble against a determined, hungry, strong team that is playing better defense than they are. The Blazers also have revenge here from a home loss to Toronto early last month. Portland had swept the season series each of the prior two years and the Trail Blazers are 7-2 SU and ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. Portland also is 16-9 ATS this season when off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. They will be ready to go tonight. The Raptors have covered just 10 of 27 games the past three seasons when they are a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. *10* PORTLAND

Rickenbach March Madness Thursday #575 - *8* Marist Red Foxes +3 vs Manhattan @ 10 ET - This line looked "interesting" to say the least and, as I have mentioned many times in the past, when a line looks a little "off" it is certainly worth investigating. If you then find what you expected, you jump on it. That is the case here. How in the world is a Marist team that only went 4-16 in conference action such a small dog against a Manhattan team that went 9-11 in conference action? The fact is this is a classic case of hot versus not and it's also a big revenge game. The Red Foxes were knocked out of the conference tourney last March by the Jaspers so they certainly will be seeking revenge here. Marist did get some revenge by winning at Manhattan earlier this season but then the Jaspers returned the favor by beating the Red Foxes on their home floor. Now, in a neutral site game, I see the edge with the revenge-minded team here. Marist is much better and has much more talent than their record would lead you to believe. The Red Foxes won their last two games of the regular season which certainly has built some momentum for the conference tourney. As for Manhattan, the Jaspers lost 3 straight games to end the season. Overall the Jaspers have lost 5 of their last 6 games and have failed to cover 2 of their past 3 games. The Red Foxes not only won their last two games of the season, they also have covered 4 of their last 5. Taking a look at each team over their last 6 games, Marist has been playing the better defense and, at this time of year, it's a renewed home that permeates through the locker room of a team like the Red Foxes that under performed during the regular season but has the talent level to make a run in a tournament setting. Look for that run to begin today. Marist is 5-1 ATS in games with a posted total in the 140 to 149.5 range. Manhattan is 0-3 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Keep in mind the Jaspers did give up allow 45% shooting from the field in that one and it was the 6th straight game they allowed 44% or better from the field while the Red Foxes have held 3 of their last 6 opponents to 41% or less from the field. *8* MARIST

Rickenbach March Madness Thursday Game #589 - *8* Florida Gulf Coast Eagles +7.5 @ North Florida @ 7:30 ET - The Eagles lost both match-ups with the Ospreys last season but they can erase the frustration of those defeats in a big way by getting the upset win in the Atlantic Sun Tournament Thursday. The Eagles certainly have the confidence level to get it done. They did split their match-ups with North Florida this season but Florida Gulf Coast's loss came by just 6 points and was a tight game late while the Eagles victory was decided by a dominant 16 point margin. Even though FGC won only 2 of their 7 road games in conference action this season, 4 of the 5 defeats came by a single margin and 3 of those 4 were by 7 points or less. The Eagles victory over Kennesaw State Tuesday marked the 5th time in their last 7 games that FGC held their opponent under 42.7% from the field. As for North Florida, as impressive as their overall offensive production is, the Ospreys defense has allowed over 46.1% from the field in 9 of their last 10 games! North Florida wrapped up the regular season with 4 losses in their last 7 games. By the way the 3 wins included a pair of victories by 3 points or less. I look for the Ospreys to struggle to create any kind of separation with FGC Thursday and I would not be surprised to see the Eagles get the upset. Neither one of these teams is involved in lined games very often but the long-term numbers do show North Florida at just 3-3 ATS in home games while the Eagles are 6-2 ATS in road games. Grab the points here! *8* FLORIDA GULF COAST

Rickenbach March Madness Thursday Game #571 - *8* Quinnipiac Bobcats +5 vs Rider @ 5 ET - The Bobcats seek revenge for a 23 point defeat at Rider in late January. Quinnipiac had defeated the Broncs earlier in the month when they hosted Rider. So what happened in the rematch? The Bobcats shot a ridiculous 27.7% from the field. Only once the entire season did Quinnipiac shoot worse than that and the ugly outing came against Monmouth who is a fantastic small school team. That said, don't look for a repeat here. The Bobcats are likely to shoot much better tonight in this neutral floor match-up. Also, Quinnipiac has a huge edge on the boards where they've dominated all season long. As for defense, these teams rank about equal except that the Bobcats do a better job against the three ball. That said, they have a rebounding edge here and a perimeter edge as Quinnipiac is also the better three point shooting team as well. It's the overall shooting percentage of the Bobcats that is ugly for the season but they did shoot 44% or better from the field in 2 of their last 3 games. Rider has the better record on the season but they did lose 5 of their last 7 games and one of those two wins came by just three points. The Bobcats certainly fit the image of an "ugly dog" based on their performance this season but in an "anything can happen" neutral court tourney I will gladly challenge a week Broncs team to cover the spread. Rider is 1-9 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130 to 139.5 range. Also, the Broncs are 2-9 ATS the past 3 seasons in neutral court games. The beating the Bobcats took at Rider a little over 5 weeks ago was their worst loss of the season. Look for the Cats to improve to 3-1 SU and ATS the past 3 seasons when they are playing with revenge from a blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points here. *8* QUINNIPIAC

Rickenbach NCAAB #750 - *8* Minnesota Golden Gophers +10 vs Wisconsin @ 9 ET - Of course I am aware of the suspensions that the Golden Gophers recently handed out. Even with those, Minnesota went on the road and actually had a nice lead at the half at Illinois on Sunday before the Golden Gophers were done in by a torrid shooting performance in the 2nd half by the Illini. That end result is helping to give us some line value here because now, at home and having had more time to adjust for the suspensions, the Golden Gophers will be a dangerous dog. Minnesota took care of business against a bad team by crushing Rutgers in the Golden Gophers most recent home game. In their game prior to that Minnesota upset the powerful Terrapins in a huge shocker where I rode the Golden Gophers to victory. Now certainly the team has been impacted by the suspensions but this line is also adjusted to reflect that and I am convinced it is offering exceptional line value to the home dog. The Golden Gophers are playing their final home game and the other players getting extra minutes as a result of the suspensions are absolutely going to make the most of it in this spot. The Badgers are off of a big home win versus Michigan and have a huge season finale on deck with a massive game at Purdue on Saturday. That makes this a tough "sandwich spot" for the Badgers and they could very easily be "flat" for this game. Look for the Golden Gophers to improve to 3-0 ATS this season as a home dog of 9.5 to 12 points. *8* MINNESOTA

Rickenbach NCAAB #758 - *10* Top Play UCLA Bruins +2.5 vs Oregon @ 9 ET - The Ducks are ranked in the top ten teams in the country, have gone 12-4 in the Pac 12 while the Bruins have gone just 6-10 and yet the Ducks opened up as a two point favorite here. Makes you scratch your head a little, doesn't it? Here is the key to this low line and why you want to be on the dog here while everyone else likely piles in on the favorite. The Ducks are only 3-4 SU in Pac 12 road games. Overall, Oregon has failed to cover 4 of their past 5 games and they have allowed 72 points or more in 9 of their last 12 games. UCLA is off of an ugly loss at Stanford where their defense failed them but the Bruins will respond here and had been playing quite well on that side of the floor before the Cardinal took it to them. Even though UCLA is only 4-3 SU in Pac 12 games this season two of those losses came by just 2 points. The Bruins are very close to being 6-1 SU in Pac 12 home games and certainly there is value here with getting the 2.5 points as UCLA wants to play the role of spoiler here plus get revenge for a 14 point loss at Oregon earlier this season. The Bruins have gone 14-5 SU the last 3 seasons when they are revenging a road loss. Also, when off of a loss in Pac 12 action past three seasons, UCLA has gone 16-7 ATS. The Bruins will bring their A game tonight and they have excelled in high-scoring games on their home court. Look for UCLA to improve to 4-0 ATS and SU in home games with a posted total in the range of 155 to 159.5 points. The Ducks are 2-6 ATS the past three seasons combined in a line range of pick'em to -3. *10* UCLA 

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 vs Washington @ 8:05 ET - The Timberwolves are off of an embarrassing loss at Dallas where they shot poorly and the Mavs simply shot lights out. It happens and Minnesota knows it. Now the T-wolves have had a couple days off to think about that loss and to get ready to respond in what is their first home game in over a week. I expect them to do just that. Minnesota has won 5 of their last 8 home games and one of the three losses came by just three points against a top tier Western Conference team, Oklahoma City. With that said, the Timberwolves are fully capable of giving the Wizards all they can handle...and then some! Washington's 3 game winning streak looks good at first glace but they faced the hapless 76'ers twice! The Wizards now could get caught looking right past a Timberwolves team that is better than their record would indicate. Washington will be looking ahead to a big game with LeBron James and the Cavs and will fail to recognize just how tough it can be to knock off "these" Timberwolves in Minnesota. The fact is that Minny has been playing much better than they were previously and the T-wolves have held their own against high-scoring teams like the Wizards. Minnesota has gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against teams that average 99 points or more per game. Washington is 1-4 both SU and ATS in their games against teams from the Northwest Division this season. The Wizards also have gone 10-20 ATS in games in March that past two years. This is their first game this month and they have lost 6 of their last 9 road games. *10* MINNESOTA

Rickenbach NBA *8* Utah Jazz +6 @ Toronto @ 7:35 ET - The Jazz went from a +6 to a +5 in their most recent game at Boston and that resulted in a "push" against the Celtics except for those who played it early and got the win. Utah has hit a tough patch where they have struggled to win and struggled to get covers. That means the Jazz are very hungry heading into this match-up with Toronto and they could be catching the Raptors at the right time to spring the upset. Toronto is coming into this game on a 4-1 streak but that could actually lead to some false self confidence here because the problem is the Raptors aren't playing defense very well at all. Toronto has been lit up for 52% combined in their last 3 games and yet they won 2 of the 3 games. That spells trouble for taking on a fired up Utah team that has held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 44% or less from the field and yet lost 4 of those 6 games. This is a rare statistical anomaly and I feel it is offering significant line value to the road dog in this one. Utah is 3-1 SU and ATS this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. The Raptors are an ugly 9-16-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points the last three seasons combined. Also, the 7 times this season that Toronto has faced a Northwest Division opponents, the Raptors have gotten the cash just TWICE! *8* UTAH

Rickenbach NCAAB #725 - *8* Texas Tech Red Raiders +9.5 @ West Virginia @ 7 ET - Texas Tech was projected to be one of the worst teams in the Big 12 coming into this season but they have been anything but and yet they still aren't getting the respect they deserve. The Red Raiders have been on a late season push and, in their four point loss to West Virginia in late February, Texas Tech actually let the game by 4 points before the Mountaineers managed to score the final 8 points of the game to notch the victory. I fully expect another tight game tonight as the Red Raiders are off of a rare, poor shooting performance at Kansas. Texas Tech only shot 31.6% from the field in that game and yet they still only lost by 9 points. It was the 5th cover for the Red Raiders in their last 6 games and, overall, Texas Tech had five straight wins before suffering the SU loss to the Jayhawks. The Red Raiders have fought hard for Tubby Smith all season long and that's why on the entire season they have just two losses by more than 10 points. Texas Tech is going to again battle hard tonight as they improve to 3-1 ATS this season when off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less. Look for West Virginia to drop to 1-4 ATS the past three seasons combined when they are a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. *8* TEXAS TECH

Rickenbach NCAAB #739 - *8* Mississippi State Bulldogs +4 @ Ole Miss @ 7 ET - While it is true that Ole Miss has revenge here for a loss at Mississippi State in late January it is also true that the Bulldogs and Rebels are huge in-state rivals and Mississippi State certainly hasn't forgotten about the fact that they had lost three straight meetings prior to that win. For the Bulldogs that included an SEC Tourney loss in 2014. So, as they gear up for the 2016 tournament, look for the underdog Bulldogs to "leave it all on the floor" Wednesday against their hated rival. As I have said many times before, when something looks "easy" there is usually a "catch" and that is the case here. Many will jump on the home team with the better record that is playing with in-season revenge. However, the fact is that the Rebels have only split their last 6 games and, from an ATS perspective they have failed to cover 3 of their last 4. Ole Miss has not been shooting the ball well at all and they now host a Bulldogs team that has shot the ball very well over the past four games. Mississippi State covered all four games and they have won 3 of their last 4 SU. The Bulldogs are 10-5 ATS as an underdog this season and they have covered 3 of 4 this season when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, Ole Miss has gone 3-7 ATS the past three seasons combined and 5 of those 7 losses were outright defeats. *8* MISSISSIPPI STATE

Rickenbach March Madness #781 - UMBC Retrievers +22 @ Stony Brook @ 7 ET - The loss of Bryan Sekunda to a knee injury impacts the depth of the Seawolves. Of course bench production is a key when it comes to covering a big spread like this. When these teams last met at Stony Brook the Seawolves knocked off the Retrievers by only 12 points. The prior two games in the series were decided by 10 points and 12 points as well. The point is that the only time in the last 4 match-ups between these teams that it was a blowout was when they met at UMBC and the Retrievers lost by 23 points. However, that was simply "one of those games" because the leading scorer for the Retrievers had a rare off shooting night and that certainly impacted the outcome greatly. In the prior match-up, Jairus Lyles had 24 points at Stony Brook and the Retrievers lost the game by only 12 points. Lyles is heating up again as he has averaged 23.7 points in his last three games and UMBC wrapped up the season with an OT win over Binghamton and a tight loss at New Hampshire where the determined Retrievers just wouldn't go away. I look for this game to be another close one tonight as Stony Brook lost two of their last three games to wrap up the season. The Seawolves also have just one win by more than 18 points in their last six games and that was the 23 point margin at UMBC when Lyles shot a ridiculous 3 of 17. That won't be repeated as Lyles is hot again and redeems himself here. The Retrievers have covered both of their lined games this season while the Seawolves have failed to cover all three of theirs and they are again overvalued here. *8* UMBC

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Orlando Magic +5.5 @ Dallas @ 8:35 ET - With their blowout win over the Timberwolves the Mavs are now 4-6 their last 10 games. That is hardly impressive and this is especially true when you consider that 2 wins came over awful Minnesota and Philadelphia teams, 1 win came in OT (versus Denver) and was truly a game the Mavs had no business covering the spread, and the other win came by just 4 points. The point is I don't see Dallas covering this spread when you consider the 4 wins they have notched in their last 10 games. 3 of them did come by more than 4 points but 2 of those were against awful teams and the other was a ridiculous OT cover where the Mavericks looked like the wrong side the entire game. We're getting nice line value here with a hungry road dog that is anxious to get back on track after they had hit a little lull. Even though the Magic are off of a big win they know it was only the Sixers and they know their defense left a lot to be desired as Orlando let them back in the game late. With that said, the Magic should look sharp on both ends of the floor tonight as they will be emphasizing the defensive end while certainly their offense has been firing on all cylinders for weeks now. That potent offense makes for a dangerous dog and the Magic have covered 9 of their last 13 games. Dallas is just 1-7 ATS and SU this season in games against teams from the Southeast Division and the Mavs could get caught looking ahead to 3 straight Western Conference match-ups that follow this game. Orlando is 7-1 ATS against Southwest Division opponents this season and, off of the big home win Sunday, note that the Magic are 5-1 ATS and SU this season when they are off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more in their prior game. They will carry momentum right into tonight's big game. *10* ORLANDO

Rickenbach March Madness #575 - *8* USC Upstate +14.5 @ North Florida @ 7:30 ET - It's tourney time in the Atlantic Sun Conference and last March the Ospreys knocked the Spartans out of the tourney with a 6 point win. It's payback time for USC Upstate and even though they may not pull off the monumental upset as a huge dog in this game, I do expect the Spartans to be ultra competitive in this one. Yes, the game is being played at North Florida but these teams just met here a week ago and the Ospreys only won that game by 3 points. In fact, North Florida is a dismal 3-4 SU in their last 7 games and only one of the wins came by more than 3 points. The Ospreys have been struggling on the defensive end and have allowed 82.7 points per game in their last 10 games. That type of subpar defense makes it very tough to blowout a team and that is especially true in a tournament situation where the Spartans will come in loose knowing they have nothing to lose and everything to gain with a huge upset here. USC Upstate is only 7-10 SU in their last 17 games but only 2 of those 10 losses have come by more than 13 points and, in fact, the Spartans had 6 losses by a single digit margin during this stretch. USC Upstate got a major confidence boost for the tourney as, last week, they knocked off a New Jersey Tech team that ranks among the top teams in the conference. That makes this match-up with North Florida seem all the more winnable and, in fact, the Spartans had taken 5 straight meetings in this series before the tourney loss last spring and then the two losses this season. Again, two of those three losses came by 6 points or less and the Ospreys are going to have trouble building big separation in this game. *8* USC UPSTATE

Rickenbach NCAAB #531 - *10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats -3 @ Florida @ 7 ET - The Wildcats respond well when off of a SU loss. When off of a loss in SEC action the Wildcats are a PERFECT 4-0 SU and ATS this season. Looking further back, the past three seasons combined, Kentucky is a fantastic 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS when off of a loss in conference action. After the loss at Vanderbilt where the Wildcats had a tougher game than is typical on both ends of the floor, I have no doubts about a big response tonight. Keep in mind, prior to the loss, the Wildcats had held 6 straight opponents to 39.6% or less from the field! Also, Kentucky had scored at least 76 points in 11 straight games before being held to 62 points in the loss to the Commodores. Note that Florida has been struggling badly and has failed to cover 7 of their past 8 games. Sure they are looking at this as a statement game and one last chance to make some noise on their home floor in an otherwise disappointing finish to the season. But the problem is the Gators just don't have the talent level to match up with Kentucky. This is especially true when you factor in that the Wildcats are off of a loss and will be flying all over the floor tonight as a result. Florida is off of a high-scoring loss at LSU but, prior to that game, the Gators had been held to an average of 65.5 points per game in their last 6 games. The Cats already took the first meeting between these teams by 19 points and there is every reason to believe this will be another ugly loss for a stumbling Gators team. Florida is an ugly 4-9 ATS the past three seasons when playing with road loss revenge. The Wildcats are just too talented for the Gators so when the Cats are motivated (as they will be tonight to stay tied atop the SEC), Florida will not be able to stop them. *10* KENTUCKY

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets +13 @ LA Clippers @ 10:35 ET - As I have stated before, sometimes rest isn't such a good thing when it's a little much. For example, it may be ideal to have a day off between games but when it's multiple days off between games some teams don't react well to that. For example, the Clippers have a losing record this season when they have 2 days of rest between games (as is the case for tonight's game). The ATS numbers are not good either as the Clippers have grabbed the cash just twice in seven such occurrences this season. The Clips not only might be a little rusty or lethargic due to the extra rest here, they also could easily get caught looking right past an Eastern Conference foe with one of the worst records in the league. This is especially true because the Clippers have a huge game on deck against a Western Conference foe that has one of the best records in the league. The Clips have lost three of their past five home games and while I don't expect them to lose this game outright, I do expect them to be challenged all night by a Nets team that has been surging for quite some time now. Brooklyn has covered 3 straight games and 8 of their last 12. In these last 12 games the Nets have gone just 5-7 SU but only 2 of the 12 games was a defeat decided by more than 8 points. As you can see, Brooklyn has been ultra-competitive of late and, the fact that the Nets are coming off of back to back straight up wins has built up confidence for them coming into this match-up. Brooklyn is 16-9 ATS this season in non-conference games and, against the Pacific Division, the Nets are 20-8 ATS the past three seasons combined. The Clippers are 2-5 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season and they will get caught looking ahead to the big game with the Thunder that is up next. *10* BROOKLYN

Rickenbach NBA *8* Houston Rockets -1.5 @ Milwaukee @ 8:05 ET - Even though the Bucks are off of an upset loss as a favorite I do not expect them to bounce back here. In fact, Milwaukee is in a "go against spot" that is is 100% perfect so far this season. The Bucks are 0-4 SU and ATS when they are off of an upset loss as a favorite. Milwaukee's double digit loss to the Pistons Saturday was their 10th loss in their last 15 games. Houston is also off of a double digit loss as they lost to the Spurs by 10 points on Saturday. The Rockets are on a stellar 28-14 SU (and 26-16 ATS) run when they are off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more the past three seasons. In road games with a posted total of 210 points or more, Houston has gone 10-5 this season. I look for the Rockets to put up a ton of points tonight after being frustrated by the stifling defense of San Antonio this weekend. The Bucks, of course, don't even come close to the talent and execution level of the Spurs. The Rockets, as a result, should get right back on track here. Houston had covered three straight games before the loss to San Antonio. Also, the Rockets have won 5 straight games with Milwaukee and I look for another one here in road rout fashion as Houston knows they must get right back on track as they cling to the #8 spot in the Western Conference. *8* HOUSTON

Rickenbach NBA *8* Utah Jazz +6 @ Boston @ 7:35 ET - The Jazz are off of a home loss to Brooklyn and they know this road trip is the key to getting back on track. Utah had won 7 straight games before their recent 2-5 slide and are still on a 10-6 run dating back to January 22nd. During this stretch 4 of the 6 losses came by a margin of 4 points or less. The fact is that in their last 16 games the Jazz have been blown out just twice. With that said, I like their chances of staying inside the inflated number at Boston Monday. The Celtics are laying about a half dozen points here and Boston is on a 15-22 ATS run in home games with a posted total in the 200 to 204.5 range. The Jazz, of course, were a large favorite at home against the Nets on Saturday and yet they lost the game outright. That is noteworthy to say the least because Utah is an incredible 8-0 ATS and SU this season when they are off of an upset loss as a favorite. While it wouldn't shock me to see the fired up Jazz get the outright win tonight at Boston, I am grabbing the generous points and I look for the better defensive team to stay inside the sizable number here. *8* UTAH

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Miami Heat +1 @ New York @ 7:35 ET - The Heat suffered a tough loss yesterday as they actually played well against the Celtics until Boston pulled away late in that game. Miami had previously won 10 of 14 games and the 4 losses had come against solid Western Conference opponents - Golden State, San Antonio, LA Clippers, and Houston. The point is that the Heat won each of their other 10 games during this stretch before falling short at Boston yesterday afternoon. Miami is fired up about coming forth with a big response and the Knicks certainly aren't on par with any of the teams that the Heat have lost to during this 15 game stretch. New York is off of a rare win, versus Orlando Friday, as the Knicks had lost 13 of their 15 prior games. They are likely to stumble again here as New York hasn't recorded back to back wins in nearly six weeks! The Knicks also are playing right into the teeth of revenge here as New York did win at Miami last month and it's time for payback for a Heat team that had won each of the 5 prior meetings including three straight in New York! Miami should continue their success in The Big Apple Sunday. The Heat have won 4 straight games SU and ATS against teams with a losing record. Also, New York has lost 9 straight games SU against teams with a winning record and this line is basically a pick'em. The point is that the Knicks have not been able to beat winning teams and the only losses the Heat have had over the past five weeks have come to solid solid winning teams. Miami has taken care of business against subpar opposition and, even though this is a back to back for the Heat, they will get the job done once again. *10* MIAMI 

Rickenbach NBA *8* Minnesota Timberwolves +7 @ Dallas @ 7:05 ET - The Mavericks are off of a fortunate win...not only straight-up but also ATS. The Mavs were getting hammered by the Nuggets for much of their game on Friday night and then, even with a late rally, they still looked like they were going to lose. However, they were fortunate to send the game to overtime where they then went to win the game by 6 points. With the line at 5.5 in some shops and a full 6 in others they got the "miracle" win or push for their backers. Sunday I should get a little payback against Dallas as everyone still seems to be buying into the Mavericks even though they certainly nothing special. A line as low as a 6 is now up to a 7 as of early gameday morning and that means it is go time with the Timberwolves plus the points. Minnesota has been playing very competitive basketball of late and has covered 3 straight and 10 of their past 15. The Timberwolves have, included in this stretch, covered 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. As for the Mavs, prior to their miraculous win over the Nuggets, they had failed to cover 9 of their last 13 games. With five straight wins over Minnesota it is easy for Dallas to overlook the T-wolves and that will prove to be a mistake on Sunday. The Mavericks are playing the 4th game of a 6 game homestand and, this season, Dallas has gone 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS when they enter a game having played three or more consecutive games at home. *8* MINNESOTA

Rickenbach NBA *10* Charlotte Hornets +4.5 @ Atlanta @ 3:35 ET - With Atlanta seeking revenge for a 23 point beatdown at Charlotte last month, the "masses" seem to be piling up on the Hawks here as this line on Atlanta has moved upward as of early Sunday morning. Of course that means even more value for those backing the Hornets and that includes me and that is why it is now "go time" with this selection. Charlotte has presented some match-up problems for Atlanta this season and that is why the two wins the Hawks have over the Hornets each came by three points or less while the lone Charlotte win was an absolute blowout. Atlanta is off of a win over the Bulls but it was only the 2nd win for Atlanta in their last 7 games and the Hawks have shot less than 42% from the field in three straight games. Conversely, the Hornets have won 11 of their last 15 games and the Hornets have shot 48.7% or better from the field in 3 of their last 5 games. Charlotte has won 7 of their last 10 road games and they are fully focused on wrapping up this 6 game road trip with a victory as there is no lookahead (bad Phoenix team on deck). The Hornets have gone an incredible 22-8 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points the past three seasons. The Hawks are just 4-7 ATS in divisional games this season and they are 6-15 ATS on Sunday games the past three seasons combined (a lot of nightlife in Atlanta to enjoy on a Saturday night has something to do with that for the Hawks I am sure). With this being an afternoon game, it makes the situation even tougher on an inconsistent home team facing a roadie that is rolling with confidence right now. *10* CHARLOTTE

Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Michigan State Spartans -17.5 vs Penn State @ Noon ET - As long time followers know, I rarely play favorites in this high point spread range. However, when I see significant value I jump on it and, in this case, Michigan State should be favored by at least two dozen points in my opinion. The line is lower than it should be because the Nittany Lions have made a little noise with three straight wins. Closer examination of these three wins would raise some concerns about Penn State getting a lot of respect for the victories. Any team can score an upset on any given day but still I will give kudos to the Lions for their shocking win over Iowa but, of course, that win did come at home. Their road win in this three game streak came against an awful Rutgers team. As for the most recent win, and other home win, it came against Nebraska and the Nittany Lions very nearly blew the game as they won by a single point. The point is that, although there may have been some slight improvement with Penn State here recently they are certainly no match for a team that arguably is the hottest team in college hoops right now. Michigan State has covered 8 straight games and has gone 7-1 straight-up during this stretch. On the season, the Spartans have had many ultra dominating home wins while the Nittany Lions have had many ultra ugly road losses and that is what should be expected as it relates to today's game. The Spartans are simply too hot from three point land right now and won't be stopped at home while the Nittany Lions are well known for horrific shooting performances away from home. Penn State is 1-3 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge and I would not be surprised here to see a final score similar to the 92-65 Spartans win last month. Michigan State is 6-1 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more and they roll again here. *8* Michigan State

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets +11.5 @ Utah @ 9:35 ET - While you could certainly put an asterisk by the Nets win at Phoenix because the Suns are simply awful right now, you certainly should not discount how ultra competitive Brooklyn has been for a full month now. Dating back to their final game in January, the Nets are on a 7-4 ATS run. In these 11 games, Brooklyn has lost by more than 8 points just twice. That means getting the 11.5 we're being offered here would have Brooklyn on a 9-2 ATS run. They simply have been playing like a rejuvenated team and the road win at Phoenix, no matter how bad the Suns are at times, is absolutely a confidence builder for this team. Now the Nets take on a Jazz team that has failed to cover 7 of its past 10 games and continues to be over-rated. During this entire 10 game stretch Utah has only one win by more than 9 points and most of the wins they notched were by 4 points or less. Utah simply is not known for blowing teams out and, couple that with the way the Nets are playing right now, and you have the makings of a tight one in Utah tonight. The Jazz are off of an ugly home loss to San Antonio but Utah has gone just 2-4 ATS this season when they are off of a loss where they were held to 85 points or less. The Nets are 15-9 ATS in non-conference games this season as their non-conference opponents certainly aren't too excited about facing them. Keep in mind that's a full season record too and Brooklyn is playing much better now than they were earlier this season. The Nets do have revenge here as well as they have lost ugly in recent meetings with the Jazz and that includes at home last month. That was before the Nets started playing better and now they get some revenge by, at the very least, being ultra competitive tonight. *10* BROOKLYN

Rickenbach NCAAB #581 - *10* Top Play DePaul Blue Demons +13 @ Providence @ 4 ET - The Friars are off of a very tough stretch in their schedule and the fact that they failed miserably AND have a much tougher game on deck with Creighton means that Providence absolutely may not perform well against DePaul today. It is simply too easy to overlook the Blue Demons (with a 9-18 SU record) even with the revenge factor in place for Providence here. That will spell trouble for a Friars team that is on a 1-5 straight-up run that has seen them not cover any of the 6 games. Look for their ATS streak to reach 7 straight losses as they get the win but not the cover today. The problem for Providence is that they just haven't been shooting the ball well at all. That makes it very difficult to dominate a team that will certainly come into this game playing loose and could shoot lights out as certainly the Blue Demons have nothing to lose in this game. That makes for a dangerous dog at this late stage in the season when wins are more important than blowouts. DePaul gets a big boost from their win over St John's in their most recent game and the Blue Demons shot the ball well for the 4th time in their last 7 games. In fact, DePaul has hit at least 41% from the field in 6 of their last 7 games with 46% or better in 4 of those games. The Blue Demons have gone 5-1 ATS the past three seasons as a road dog of 12.5 to 15 points. DePaul is 8-3 ATS the past three seasons when off of a win in conference action. Also, the Blue Demons are 4-1 SU and 3-1 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. That is a huge confidence builder for DePaul. The Friars are 5-9 ATS in home games this season and Providence is also 1-9 (10%) ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less. Look for the disheartened Friars, who have seen their season slip away from them, to be quite sluggish in this game and, as a result, they get the win but not the cover as they look ahead to the Creighton game. *10* DEPAUL 

Rickenbach NBA *8* Miami Heat +6 @ Boston @ 3:05 ET - The Heat are off of a SU loss but they got the cover in a fierce battle with Golden State. That was Miami's 4th straight covered and brought them to 10-3 ATS their last 13 games. The Heat are rested and ready after losing to the Warriors on Wednesday night. Miami has gone 5-1 SU and ATS this season when playing with two days of rest. They also are 22-10 SU in that situation the past three seasons combined. This is an ideal spot for backing them as they not only are rested but are getting between 5 and 6 points as of early Saturday morning. The Celtics have certainly been playing well but they have been keyed by an explosive offense and that often means overlooking defense. That works fine against a lot of teams but it could spell problems against a Heat that plays some of the best defense in the league. Boston snuck out a win versus Mlwaukee in their most recent game but the Celtics failed to cover for the 4th time in their last 6 games as Boston continues to be overvalued. Miami is seeking revenge for a 10 point home loss to the Celtics earlier this season and the situation is ideal for them to get it. *8* MIAMI

Rickenbach NCAAB #568 - *8* Syracuse Orange -5 vs NC State @ 2 ET - The Orange have had a full week off to contemplate their ugly home loss to Pittsburgh last week. With that said, I am expecting a huge response from Syracuse here as they are off of back to back losses for the first time since early January. The Orange had won 8 of 9 before these two defeats and they covered 7 of those 9 games too. Look for stifling defense from a fired up Syracuse team on Saturday and, quite frankly, the Wolfpack is not capable of stifling defense and that will be the difference maker here. The Orange offense will get the job done at home and NC State won't be able to do enough on the road as they get frustrated by the tenacious defense of a hungry Syracuse team early Saturday. The past three seasons combined, the Orange are a perfect 9-0 ATS when they enter a game on rest of 5 or 6 days. The Wolfpack are 15-29 SU as an underdog the past three seasons combined and with another SU loss likely here I don't see NC State staying inside this small spread. This is especially true given the situational edge for Syracuse. The Orange have extra motivation from the loss at NC State in the most recent match-up between the two teams as well as the fact that the Wolfpack knocked them out of the ACC tourney in their meeting prior to that one. Look for payback in a big way on Saturday. *8* SYRACUSE

Rickenbach NCAAB #527 - *8* Ole Miss Rebels +3.5 @ Georgia @ Noon ET - The world is likely to jump on the Bulldogs based on "home court edge" in this one. However, Georgia is struggling right now as they have lost 4 of their last 5 SU and they have failed to cover 5 of their past 6 ATS. The Bulldogs have got the cash just once in their last five home games and early Saturday they are hosting an Ole Miss team that has won 6 of their past 9 games. Although the Rebels are off of a non-covering win against Missouri, Ole Miss had previously covered 7 of it's past 9 games. That includes Mississippi covering 4 of its past 6 road games. The Rebels always play the Bulldogs tough and the past 5 meetings have been decided by a total of just 13 points. Even though Georgia has revenge for a loss at Ole Miss last month, the Rebels certainly haven't forgotten about losing their last two visits to Georgia plus being knocked out of the conference tourney by the Bulldogs two years ago. It's payback time on Saturday. *8* OLE MISS

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Denver Nuggets +5.5 @ Dallas @ 8:35 ET - The Nuggets are an ugly 12-18 straight-up on the road this season while the Mavericks are a respectable 16-12 on their home floor. That will have many flocking to the Mavs here but, there is significant line value with the generous points here. The Nuggets are on a 15-7 ATS run and simply don't get blown out often at all. Even though Denver is only 6-6 SU in their last 12 games, 4 of the 6 losses have come by 4 points or less. Another of the  6 losses came by just 6 points. In their last 12 games, the Nuggets have only been blown out once. The way Dallas is playing, they are unlikely to inflict a blowout here. The Mavericks have failed to cover 9 of their past 13 games. The Mavs are 5-9 SU in their last 14 games and two of those victories came by 4 points or less. The only 3 big wins that Dallas has notched the past five weeks have been over Philadelphia, Brooklyn, and Phoenix. Those are 3 of the 4 worst teams in the league. The 4th is the Lakers and that is a team Dallas only beat by 2 points during this ugly 5-9 run. The Mavs just aren't playing that well and that makes the Nuggets a dangerous dog here. This is especially true with Denver coming off of a confidence building win where they held the Clippers to just 81 points in Los Angeles! The Nuggets are 19-10 ATS on the road this season and Denver also has covered 8 of its past 10 games against teams with a winning record. Dallas is slumping and a lot of that has to do with poor defense which of course has resulted in plenty of overs lately. That is noteworthy because when the Mavericks enter a game on a streak of 3 or more overs, they are 11-21 ATS the past three seasons! As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points the Mavs have gotten the cash just 9 of 24 times and, in fact, lost the game outright 12 times. Don't be surprised if the Nuggets win this outright but certainly the value is with grabbing the points. *10* DENVER +5.5

Rickenbach NBA *8* Charlotte Hornets +3.5 @ Indiana @ 7:05 ET - This line looks "odd" to me and, as long-time followers know, I am a "contrarian" who is known to "go against the grain" in many situations like this. Here you have Indiana on their home floor where they are 18-9 SU this season hosting a Charlotte team that is 10-18 SU on the road this season plus the Pacers are playing with revenge and yet Indiana opened up as a 3 point favorite! Strange, isn't it? Of course the reality is that when lines look "off" it is usually for good reason and that is absolutely the case I think we have here. The fact is the Pacers have failed to cover 4 of their past 6 games overall and 6 of their past 9 games at home. Indiana just isn't getting the job done right now and I look for them to have the same "match-up issues" they had against the Hornets when Charlotte blasted them by 22 points in Indiana two weeks ago. The Hornets are off of a loss at Cleveland but they had previously won five straight games and 7 of their past 8 games. Charlotte will be fired up off of the loss and they've done very well in this price range. The Hornets are 6-3 ATS this season and 21-8 ATS the past three seasons combined when they are a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. This season, in road games where the total is posted in the 200 to 204.5 range, Charlotte has gone 7-2 ATS. When off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more, the Hornets are 9-4 ATS this season. Charlotte has been playing their best basketball of the season and you can bet on a response here. Even though Indiana has revenge from a home loss, note that the Pacers are an incredibly poor 1-9 SU and 1-9 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. What that tells you of course is that, with Indiana it's not so often that a home loss happened because of a bad night; rather, it's because of issues in matching up properly with that opponent. I expect that to be the case again tonight and whether or not the Hornets get the outright victory or not, I do expect the Pacers to see that ATS mark drop to 1-10 on the season. *8* CHARLOTTE +3.5

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans +5.5 vs Oklahoma City @ 8 ET - Very tough spot for Oklahoma City here. They are off of a big win at Dallas last night and they have a home game on deck with the top team in the NBA, the Golden State Warriors. That makes this a classic sandwich spot for the Thunder and I don't expect it to work out well for them. Oklahoma City is 7-17 ATS on the road this season and it looks like they are again overpriced here in this tough road match-up. The Thunder also are 7-14 ATS when off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more in their prior game. Oklahoma City is also 9-19 ATS this season against teams with a losing record. As you can see, the Thunder are known for falling flat after a big win and also known for overlooking a team with a subpar record. That puts them in a perfect "fade" spot here and the Pelicans can certainly be counted on to be ready for this one. New Orleans is off of an embarrassing 20 point loss at Washington on Tuesday. The Pelicans are 10-5 ATS the L3 seasons combined when they are a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, New Orleans is "chomping at the bit" to get back on the floor after the embarrassment against the Wizards and the embarrassing 26 point loss the Pelicans were dealt at OKC two weeks ago. Looking at their last 6 games overall, New Orleans had these two ugly losses but all four of their other games were wins. They look to get back into the win column tonight and they are catching the Thunder at the perfect time to do it. If the Pelicans do fall short it should be by only a single possession. *10* New Orleans 

Rickenbach NCAAB #729 - *10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers +1 @ Penn State @ 7 ET - The Cornhuskers should have Shavon Shields back on the floor tonight and that is a great boost as he's their star player. However, Andrew White III is also listed as probable for tonight's game for the Huskers and that is also a big boost because he lit up Penn State when they visited Nebraska two weeks ago and Shields was out so White took over. Now with Shields and White likely to be working in tandem tonight, I am expecting a big road win for the Cornhuskers. This is one of those nice situations where the line will look "off" to many but the contrarian play is the way to go. In this case, Penn State is playing with revenge and is at home where they've gone 9-3 this season and the Nittany Lions are hosting a Huskers team that has gone 3-6 in road games this season and the line is roughly a pick'em in this game. Looks off doesn't it? Looks easy to take the Nittany Lions doesn't it? The keys here are the return of Shields, the confidence of White against the Lions, and the fact that Penn State is off of back to back wins while Nebraska is off of back to back losses since these teams met on the 13th. The Nittany Lions might overlook the Huskers after having scored a huge upset win over Iowa in their most recent home game. Penn State has been held under 39% from the field in 5 of their past 8 games as their shooting has struggled. Conversely, Nebraska had shot 48% or better in 7 of their past 11 games before a poor performance against the Buckeyes on Saturday. Look for the Huskers to respond after that poor effort. *10* Nebraska

Rickenbach NCAAB #714 - *8* Drexel Dragons -3 vs Delaware @ 6 ET - This is an "ugly game" in terms of being a battle to get out of the basement in the Colonial Athletic Conference. I see solid line value here with Drexel. The Dragons have played a road heavy schedule this season and they are hungry to finish up the season with a pair of home wins. As ugly as the season has been for Drexel, they have covered 2 of their past 3 games heading into this match-up and the Dragons are off of a big road win at William and Mary Saturday. That gives Drexel momentum coming into this revenge game with the Fightin Blue Hens. Delaware knocked off the Dragons earlier this season but these teams have split their season series each of the past two seasons and I expect that to be the case again this season with these conference rivals. The Fightin Blue Hens have won just 2 of their 16 road games this season and Delaware also has covered just 7 of its past 21 games! The Fightin Blue Hens are off of another ugly performance as they scored just 50 points in a 25 point loss at James Madison Saturday. Delaware has won the last two match-ups at Drexel and, prior to this, the Dragons had won 12 of their last 16 home match-ups with the Fightin Blue Hens. It's payback in a big way here between these rivals as the Dragons have revenge for the loss at Delaware two weeks ago as well as the fact that they have lost each of the past two home match-ups with the Fightin Blue Hens. Since these teams met two weeks ago, Drexel has gotten their offense back on track in their past three games while Delaware has struggled with it's shooting and the Fightin Blue Hens are 2-4 ATS and 1-5 SU when off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less. It's an "ugly" match-up but it is offering excellent line value with the home team minus the short number.

Rickenbach NCAAB #559 - *10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers +7.5 @ Iowa @ 9 ET - Iowa still controls their own destiny in the Big Ten but they face a tough slate of teams to wrap up the regular season. It begins right here with a Badgers team that has been at the top of their game for many weeks now and will present a huge challenge to the Hawkeyes. Wisconsin has enjoyed plenty of success at Iowa so they certainly won't be in awe of the Hawkeyes 13-0 record in home games this season. Also, Iowa seems to be feeling the late season pressure as they have failed to cover three straight games and had outright losses in two of those three games. The Hawkeyes have had a full week off heading into this game but sometimes all that rest is not such a good thing. In fact, the past three seasons Iowa has a straight-up record of only 5-4 when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest. Also, their long-term ATS record when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games is 18-39 ATS. That is ugly and the lack of game action tends to hurt a team that relies so heavily on connecting with their outside shots. Having already been struggling in terms of knocking down their longer range shots, a week off isn't going to help matters. That will spell trouble against a Badgers team rolling with confidence as Wisconsin has won 8 of their last 9 games and had covered 7 straight games before coming up short at the betting window in their last two games. The Badgers had a rare "off night" with their shooting performance at Michigan State last Thursday but Wisconsin did knock off Maryland on the road prior to that game and then responded to the Spartans loss by getting back on track with a home win over Illinois. The Badgers hot shooting coupled with big production in their inside game with a pair of solid frontcourt players makes them a dangerous, hungry dog in a spot like this. Wisconsin is 11-5 ATS the past three seasons as an underdog. Also, this season, when off of a win in conference action the Badgers are 7-1 ATS. The "rust factor" for the Hawkeyes hurts them with the long layoff and Wiscy's long-term success at Iowa continues. *10* Wisconsin

Rickenbach NBA *8* Charlotte Hornets +8.5 @ Cleveland @ 7 ET - While it is true that this is a revenge game for Cleveland, it is also true that the Hornets are playing their best basketball of the season and this game is likely to go down to the wire. Charlotte has won 7 of their past 8 games and 10 of their past 13 games. The only loss the Hornets have in their past 8 games came by just three points. Charlotte is well rested here and has gone 6-2 ATS this season and 22-10 ATS the past three seasons when playing with two days rest. The Hornets also are 8-3 ATS this season and 30-15 ATS the past three seasons in their games against Central Division opponents. The Cavaliers are off of a home loss to Detroit and now have failed to cover 6 of their past 9 games. Once again they are over-priced here. *8* Charlotte

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Houston Rockets +6 @ Utah @ 9 ET - The Rockets have won 3 straight in this series and 10 of the last 12. This includes having won 4 of the past 6 meetings in Utah. That said, though the Jazz have the home court "edge" here I look for them to struggle to put away the Rockets in this match-up. Houston is "dead set" on making a big push here after the All Star break as they know it is absolutely necessary. While Utah will already be playing their 4th game since the break, the Rockets are in much better shape in terms of rest as this will be just their 2nd game since the break. Houston hit the boards hard and played solid defense in their game on Friday as they held the Suns to 36.6% from the field and outrebounded Phoenix as well. The Jazz seem to have lost some of their defensive "mojo" as they allowed Portland to have a huge 2nd half against them on Sunday. Additionally, prior to the win over the Celtics, Utah had allowed 3 straight opponents to hit at least 47.6% from the field. Having some issues on defense is a big concern with the high-powered Rockets coming to town. Houston has scored 108 points or more in 11 of their past 15 games. By contrast, Utah has only reached that figure 3 times in their past 12 games. This game is projected to be rather high scoring and the Rockets have won 12 of 21 road games with a posted total in the 200 to 204.5 range while the Jazz have lost 16 of 21 home games where the posted total is in the 200 to 204.5 range. Of course, as impressive as those SU numbers are, the beauty here is that Houston doesn't even need the SU win to get the cover here and I look for them to improve to 19-6 (76%) ATS in Tuesday games while the Jazz fall to 4-9 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they scored 105 points or more. 

Rickenbach NBA *8* New Orleans Pelicans +5 @ Washington @ 7 ET - The Pelicans have won 4 of their past 5 games and are motivated for a sweep of the Wizards here after Washington took both games over New Orleans last season. The Wizards got victories in their first two games after the break but then got blasted by 20 in Miami in what was a tough scheduling spot for Washington. Though many might look for the bounce back from the Wizards here, a higher scoring game is expected and Washington is an ugly 3-6 SU and 3-6 ATS in home games with a posted total of 210 or more this season. When facing teams that average 99 points or more on the season, the Wizards have lost 7 of their past 9 games. The Pelicans appear to be on a mission and have been crashing the boards hard and shooting the ball very well in their first two games since the All Star break. They are looking to make it 5 out of 6 with another win here and the road team has covered 5 straight match-ups between these teams. In the Wizards last 13 games they only have 3 wins by more than a 3 point margin. Look for them to be challenged just to win this game let alone to cover the spread. The Wizards have been outrebounded significantly in 4 of their last 5 games and, with the way the Pelicans are crashing the boards since the All-Star break, that could again be an issue for Washington tonight. Look for the Pelicans to give another huge performance as they look to make it 5 wins in their last 6 games. 

Rickenbach NCAAB #727 - *8* Vanderbilt Commodores +5 @ Florida @ 7 ET - Of course, based on the road and home record of these teams it looks easy to take the home team in this one. Always remember...it's never that easy. It doesn't necessarily mean that Vanderbilt is a lock tonight as certainly there is no such thing. However, the point is that the odds makers know what they are doing and the reason that the Florida line is so small here is because the Gators are not shooting the ball well at all right now and they'll be hosting a Commodores team that is extremely hungry and wants to have a shot at The Big Dance. Vanderbilt has been surging with wins in 8 of their past 12 games. The Commodores have shot the ball very well over their past six games and have averaged 80 points per game during this solid 4-2 stretch. Vanderbilt also has been playing well on the other end of the floor too as they have held the opposition to 38% or less from the field in 5 of their past 6 games. The Gators, conversely, are not shooting the ball well at all right now. Florida has been held under 39.7% in 4 of their past 5 games and it's been a rough 2-3 stretch for the Gators as they also have not defended the 3-ball well in their last 6 games overall. Florida has just 1 cover in their past 6 games while Vandy has covered 2 of their last 3. The Gators are playing with road loss revenge but are just 4-8 ATS the past three seasons in this situation. Also, these teams have split their last 4 meetings but both of Florida's wins came by just three points. The Gators are 1-4 ATS the past 3 seasons as a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Vanderbilt is 14-7 ATS in February games the past 3 seasons while Florida is 7-14 ATS in February games the past three seasons. Big value with the points as Vandy is the hotter team with the more confident shooters as they remain red hot from the field. 

Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones +5.5 @ West Virginia @ 9 ET - I faded West Virginia on Saturday and got the easy win with Oklahoma as the underdog Sooners won outright by double digits on the road. One of the keys I noted in that game was the nagging injury situations impacting the backcourt of the Mountaineers and I mentioned how this was impacting West Virginia's ability to execute and play the style they like to play. I believe this will again be an issue again on Monday night and that is bad news as the Mountaineers are hosting a Cyclones team that has gotten back closer to full strength with the expected return of Jameel McKay. Iowa State has been shooting the ball extremely well and that makes them an ultra dangerous underdog in a spot like this. The Cyclones have hit at least 51.5% from the field in four straight games. From three point land, Iowa State has connected in the "high 30's" in each of their last two games and this was preceded by a stretch where the Cyclones connected on at least 50% of their threes in 3 of 4 games. This type of hot shooting can give fits to an aggressive defense like the Mountaineers possess. Additionally, the fact that injuries have effected the depth and abilities of West Virginia to play "their style" is also certainly impacting. The Mountaineers have lost 3 of their past 4 games and Iowa State is playing this game with home loss revenge as one of their only two home losses this season came versus West Virginia. It's payback time Monday. The Cyclones are looking to improve to 4-0 SU and ATS when playing with one day or less of rest this season. Look for Iowa State to build off of their win Saturday and improve to 17-5 SU when playing with one day or less of rest over the past three seasons. The Cyclones won here in their last visit and had taken three straight games in the series before the loss to the Mountaineers 3 weeks ago. I expect Iowa State to get their revenge but will grab the points as the value is certainly there with the generous points in this one. 

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Toronto Raptors -4 @ New York @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors lost a tight game right before the All Star break and then had a disappointing effort on the road right after the break as well. Toronto, at home, "righted the ship" yesterday and played solid defense and got a big home win over Memphis. The Raptors not only "talked the talk" they also "walked the walk" yesterday and Toronto looks refocused, re-energized, and is saying the right things heading into this match-up at New York on Monday. Even though the Raptors beat the Knicks recently in Toronto, they won't lose focus here on the road at New York. That's because Toronto is hungry to end a 2-game road losing streak. Prior these back to back road losses, the Raptors had won three straight on the road. The Knicks, though they are at home, will prove to be no match tonight as the Raptors intensity level will be high. New York is off of a win but it came against a struggling Timberwolves team. Prior to this victory, the Knicks had lost 11 of their past 12 games. In other words, New York is going nowhere fast and I like the edges I see here with the Raptors laying such a small number on the road. We can take advantage of the initial line move too as it has come down from a -5 to a -4. New York is an ugly 1-4 ATS this season, and 6-13 ATS the past three seasons, when they are a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Knicks also have lost 7 straight (and gone just 2-5 ATS) in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Raptors are 8-1 SU (and 7-2 ATS) in games against divisional opponents this season. Look for Toronto to prove again that they are clearly the top team in the Atlantic Division. 

Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Virginia Cavaliers +1.5 @ Miami @ 7 ET - The Cavaliers may be a small underdog here but the fact is the Cavs have a penchant for garnering motivation by being the dog. Virginia is 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons. The Cavs, thanks to stifling defense, have been red hot of late. The Cavaliers have won 8 of their past 9 games and they are going for their fifth straight cover in Monday's match-up at Miami. Though the Hurricanes are 13-1 at home this season, Virginia already has big road wins at Pittsburgh and at Louisville. The Cavaliers also lost by just a single point at Duke in a recent clash with the Blue Devils. The combined home record of those 3 teams so far this season is 44-6. The point is that the Cavaliers have already proven on multiple occasions this season that they can get the job done in the toughest of venues. The Hurricanes have failed to cover 7 of their past 12 games and their defense, as shown in the loss at North Carolina Saturday, is nowhere close to the level of defensive efficiency that the Cavs have displayed this season. Particularly in recent weeks, the gap in terms of level of defense in comparing Virginia and Miami has grown considerably. In what is a key battle in the ACC standings I'll grab the hotter team with the superior defense. Even though the Hurricanes are playing with revenge, they are only 3-7 ATS over the past three seasons when they are playing with road loss revenge. 

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Utah Jazz +4 @ Portland @ 9:05 ET - Utah plays this game with revenge from a 14 point loss at Portland last month. The Jazz had previously covered each of their last two visits to Portland and that included an outright win over the Trail Blazers last April. Utah comes into this game having won 8 of their past 10 games and they are fully focused on this divisional road opportunity as it is their only road game over a span of about a week and a half. The Jazz are catching the Blazers are the perfect time to spring the road 'upset' as Portland just knocked off Golden State by an insane 32 point margin on Friday. It was just one of those nights when everything 'clicked' for the Trail Blazers. Oftentimes when a team is off of a huge win like that (a 40 point cover), they come crashing back down to earth in ugly fashion in their next game. That is absolutely what I am expecting here. Prior to their win over the Warriors, the Blazers had allowed 3 of their past 4 opponents to hit 47% or better from the field. Utah's solid performance on defense against Boston Friday was the 5th time in their last 8 games that the Jazz have held their opponent to 43.3% or less from the field. Look for defense to play a key role in tonight's game and look for Portland to get caught still celebrating their big win over the #1 team in the NBA. The Trail Blazers have a long-term mark of 68-101 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Blazers enter this game on a 4 game winning streak but, prior to the win over the Warriors, Portland was 1-5 ATS this season when entering a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Jazz are 15-8 ATS when playing with revenge this season. Also, Utah is 9-5 ATS when they are off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more in their prior game. Look for the Jazz to roll again tonight.

Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Temple Owls +4 @ Houston @ 7 ET - The Owls have circled this two game road trip (Houston and then Tulsa) for multiple reasons. One is that they know that an 0-2 on this same trip last year cost them a trip to the NCAA Tourney. Another is the astonishing and embarrassing home loss they suffered against the Cougars on January 2nd. Temple lost that game by 27 points and the Owls now seek retribution in the payback opportunity at Houston. Temple is off of a home loss (albeit to a top team, Villanova) Wednesday, and the Owls will be fired up here after that loss and after what the Cougars did to them on January 2nd. In between the loss to the Cougars and the loss to the Wildcats, a span of nearly 7 weeks, the Owls only lost two games and those two defeats each came by 3 points or less. Hence, you can see the value here in getting Temple +4 in full on revenge mode. Houston has been hot but they have proven on more than one occasion that they're certainly not unbeatable at home. In fact, the Cougars have lost 2 of their past 6 games at home. Temple is 12-5 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season. The Owls also have thrived in the underdog role this season with an 8-3 ATS mark this season. Look for Temple to play their "game of the year" in this fantastic situational spot Sunday. 

Rickenbach NBA *8* Cleveland Cavaliers +3 @ Oklahoma City @ 3:35 ET - Many will be looking at the Thunder in this game based on the situation but the numbers just don't support it. The Thunder do have revenge against the Cavaliers because of a loss in Cleveland back in December. However, Oklahoma City is an ugly 5-12 ATS this season when playing with revenge. Also, the Thunder are off of an upset loss to Indiana on Friday and were a significant favorite in that game. However, Oklahoma City is a putrid 1-9 ATS this season when they are off of an upset loss as a favorite. On Sunday afternoon, the Thunder are hosting a Cavaliers team that seems to be "a team on a mission" over the past month. Cleveland has won 11 of their past 14 games and the Cavs are also a sparkling 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season. LeBron James and Company thrive off of the underdog mentality and use that to their advantage. The Cavaliers are also 14-9 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. The Thunder have failed to cover 8 of their last 11 games overall and Oklahoma City has failed to cover 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. While the Cavs have been very focused on the defensive end, the play of the Thunder of late has left a lot to be desired in terms of the performance on defense. I expect this to be the case again on Sunday and there is solid line value here with Cleveland plus the points. 

Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Detroit Titans +14 @ Valparaiso @ 2:30 ET - Detroit got embarrassed on their home floor last month by the Crusaders. That 18 point margin of defeat was one of the largest that the Titans have suffered this season. In fact, since the calendar turned the page to 2016, Detroit has played 16 games and that ugly loss to Valparaiso is the only game that the Titans have lost by a margin greater than 8 points. That said, some payback is on order for Sunday's game against the Crusaders. Now certainly Valparaiso is the superior team and the Crusaders are very likely to get the straight-up win here. However, the point is that there is every reason to believe this game will be much closer than the first one. Detroit comes into this game having won 6 of their last 7 games. That is definitely a confidence builder. The Titans also are catching Valparaiso at the perfect time as the Crusaders are off of a hard-fought 86-84 win over Oakland which solidified Valparaiso's billing as the top team in the Horizon League. Off of that key victory, and with tough road battles at Milwaukee and Green Bay on deck, it is easy to envision the Crusaders overlooking the Titans here. Also going in our favor Sunday is the fact that Valparaiso has been getting over-valued as the season has gone on. Their non-covering win versus Oakland was the 4th ATS loss for the Crusaders in their past 5 games. Valparaiso has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. Also, Detroit is a PERFECT 5-0 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. 

Rickenbach NBA *8* Milwaukee Bucks +9 @ Atlanta @ 7:35 ET - The Bucks and Hawks are both off of losses last night where each got sloppy with the ball and were done in by turnovers. Milwaukee blew a fourth quarter lead in their game but there really was no excuse for Atlanta to lose their game as they took on a short-handed Miami Heat team. With that said, the value today is with the Bucks as the Hawks continue to struggle with consistency while the Bucks, having nothing to lose and playing very relaxed, will absolutely "bring it" tonight and should stay well within range of the upset throughout this game. The Hawks have allowed two of their last three opponents to connect on at least 49% of their shots from the field. Atlanta also is in a bit of a lookahead here as they have Golden State up next. Even though that is a non-conference opponent, the Warriors are the top team in the league and the Hawks could look right past a 22-33 Milwaukee team. That will prove to be a mistake as the Bucks are 9-5 ATS in the 2nd game of a back to back this season. Also, Milwaukee is a stellar 9-2 ATS the past three seasons combined in road games with a posted total in the 205 to 209.5 point range. The Hawks have shown they overlook teams as they are 11-15 ATS this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Also, Atlanta has lost the 2nd game of a back to back 3 of the last 4 times it has occurred over the past month. Take the big points with the hungry dog here as Atlanta is still trying to sort itself out and is overpriced here.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #577 - *8* Kentucky Wildcats +1 @ Texas A & M @ 6:30 PM ET - Texas A & M finally got back into the win column on Tuesday but they had to pull away late against Ole Miss and I feel strongly that all is still not well in Aggieland. Let's not forget that the Aggies had lost four straight games prior to that win over the Rebels. Also, Texas A & M, before beating Mississippi, had failed to cover 6 of 7 prior games. They now take on a Kentucky team that has been playing fantastic defense as the Wildcats have held 9 of their past 10 opponents to 41.1% or less from the field. Contrast that with a Texas A & M team that, prior to the win over the Rebels, had allowed each of their 6 prior opponents to hit at least 40% from the field. The Wildcats have truly dominated some opponents with their defense and, in looking at the other end of the floor, the Cats just have too many weapons on offense in my opinion. The Aggies had failed to cover 6 straight SEC games before pulling away late in the win over Ole Miss to get the cash. Texas A & M has not shot well in 4 of their last 6 home games. Also, the Aggies are 2-4 ATS this season when off of a win in conference action. Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record this season. The Wildcats are 10-1 SU this season when the posted total on their game is in the 140 to 149.5 range. Also, Kentucky is 8-3 ATS in Saturday games this season and they "bring it" again in a game they know they have to have to maintain top status in the SEC. 

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #583 - *8* Oklahoma Sooners +4.5 @ West Virginia @ 4 PM ET - This is a revenge game for West Virginia but injuries to their backcourt are a concern. Both Jaysean Paige and Daxter Miles Jr. are banged up right now. This effects the depth of the Mountaineers and also effects the style of basketball they like to play. West Virginia needs healthy guards and a full complement of personnel to be able to slow down the Sooners offense like they did in Oklahoma. What was impressive about that win for OU is that they managed to get the win over the Mountaineers even though they shot just 33% from the field. That alone says a lot about just how strong the Sooners are and, coming off of a pair of recent losses, I am looking for a huge effort from Oklahoma here in a game they know they must have as they need to get back on track. 4 of the 5 losses that Oklahoma has this season have come by 5 points or less and I expect that if OU does not get the outright win here on the road that it is a game likely decided on the final possession and, as a result, the Sooners get the cash either way. The injury situation for West Virginia, even if Paige and Miles play, is absolutely significant because neither guy is 100% and they really need to be against this talented (and angry) Sooners team. Oklahoma is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season and they get the job done again here in bounce back mode.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #544 - *8* Syracuse Orange -3 vs Pittsburgh @ 2 PM ET - This is a fantastic situation made even stronger by the fact that this line has come down from a -5 to a -3 as of early Saturday morning. The Orange have lost 3 straight games to Pittsburgh. That includes a loss in Syracuse last season and it also includes a loss to the Panthers at Pitt earlier this season. This is a "triple revenge" spot for the Orange and I expect them to make the most of it. The situation is perfect to do just that. Pittsburgh is struggling badly right now and they were fortunate they even won their most recent game. The Panthers were at home against Wake Forest and that is a game they should have dominated and yet they were lucky they even won the game - in multiple overtimes no less! Pittsburgh has now failed to cover back to back games and, prior to the win over the Demon Deacons, the Panthers had lost 3 straight games and 6 of their last 9 games overall. While Pittsburgh has floundered, Syracuse has been coming on strong. The Orange loss at Louisville on Wednesday was preceded by wins in 8 of Syracuse's last 9 games. Also, the Orange had covered 7 of those 9 games. Syracuse will quickly respond off of the loss and we're getting extra line value here because so many put so much weight into one game - the ugly Orange loss to the Cardinals. Syracuse has won 9 of their last 10 home games where the posted total is in the 135 to 139.5 range and the line here is only a -3 so look for that SU mark to improve to 10-1 while at the same time resulting in a nice ATS cover. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS this season when they are off of a win against a conference rival and Pittsburgh is 6-19 ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. 

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #519 - *8* Xavier Musketeers -4 @ Georgetown @ Noon ET - Xavier has one home loss this entire season. It came at the hands of the Hoyas nearly one month ago to the day. You know what that means today! The Musketeers will be ready to avenge their only home loss of the entire season and there is on better way to do that than to exact revenge on an opponents home floor. We get line value because Xavier is on the road and that helps to strengthen the value that is available here with a Musketeers team that is 23-3 on the season. Note that in the first match-up between these teams Xavier lost despite having 17 more field goal attempts. For the game, the Musketeers had 33% more field goal attempts than did Georgetown. It was simply "one of those strange games" where the Hoyas shot lights out while the better team, Xavier, had a very poor night with their shooting. The Musketeers do have a big game on deck with Villanova but there is no way they are going to look past a team that handed them their only home loss this season. Couple that with the fact that Georgetown has struggled and lost 5 of their last 6 games and failed to cover 6 of their past 8 games, and you have solid line value here with Xavier minus the short number on the road. Look for the Hoyas to drop to 0-4 ATS in home games with a posted total in the 145 to 149.5 range while the Musketeers improve to 13-4 ATS in road games with a posted total in the 145 to 149.5 range. You can tell by the total that this is expected to be a higher scoring game and, historically as you can see, that favors the Musketeers at the betting window.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #510 - *8* South Florida Bulls +7.5 vs Memphis @ 11 AM ET - Not only did Memphis beat the Bulls by 15 points at home last month, the Tigers also handed South Florida one of their ugliest home losses of the season in last season's 75-48 Memphis rout. It was a Valentine's Day massacre last year but this year's game with South Florida as the host is the perfect set up for some retribution. The Tigers are unlikely to be on top of their game with this very early start time. An early game like this can have a tendency for each team to come out a little sluggish and, of course, that favors the underdog. Also, the Tigers have a huge game on deck as they host SMU on Thursday. Don't be surprised if Memphis gets caught looking ahead to that game as they did lose to the Mustangs earlier this season. As for South Florida, another disappointing overall season means this is one of the few games the Bulls have left to "make a little noise" in an otherwise uneventful season. South Florida will be gunning for the upset here. Coming off of a win at East Carolina Tuesday gives the Bulls some positive momentum heading into this game and South Florida has covered 5 of their last 7 games. The Bulls most recent home game was their ugliest home effort of the season as they were trounced by SMU. Couple that with last year's ugly home loss to Memphis and there is no doubt that South Florida is going to be highly motivated for this early Saturday match-up. The Tigers are only 2-6 in road games this season and they are 1-4 ATS this season when off of a win in conference action. The Bulls have fared well against the spread this season when facing high scoring teams as they are 6-2 ATS in games against teams averaging 77 points or more per game this season. South Florida stays inside the number again today and, in fact, just might pull off the upset win here!

Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Monmouth Hawks -4.5 vs Iona @ 10 ET - Not surprisingly, the whole world seems to be lining up on Iona (the revenge seeking Gaels) as of early gameday morning. However, the Hawks are the far superior team and also have the advantage of home court in this one. Yes, the first game between these two teams ended up having a relatively tight, crazy finish but one should not overlook the fact that Monmouth had led that game by 20 points in the 2nd half! Now, at home, and still ticked off by some of the post-game antics of Iona (including statements from the Gaels coach), the Hawks will be ready to get another win in this heated series. The first victory came by 8 points but that was on the road. I look for a double digit margin in this rematch. Monmouth still remembers getting knocked out of the MAAC Tournament by Iona last spring. The Hawks, even though they got some road revenge last month, will make the most of this opportunity to blow out an overmatched foe and get some home revenge this month! Monmouth is 5-0 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 160 to 169.5 range. The Hawks are also 10-1 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record. Iona is a putrid 1-5 ATS this season (and ugly 5-17 ATS the past three seasons) as an underdog. The 15-10 Gaels will prove to be no match for a 22-5 Hawks team that is much improved from last season while Iona has been on the decline this season. Look for Monmouth to drop the Gaels to 2-7 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. 

Rickenbach NBA *8* Charlotte Hornets +1 @ Milwaukee @ 8:05 ET - The Bucks managed a couple of tight wins before the All Star break but Milwaukee had previously lost 7 of their past 8 games prior to the two victories. The Bucks now host a Bobcats team that has won 9 of their past 13 games. I see good line value being able to get a surging Charlotte team in a pick 'em price range while being able to fade a Bucks team that simply had a couple of fortunate victories heading into the All Star break. The Hornets have won each of the past three meetings between these teams in Milwaukee and also has revenge on their minds after losing to the Bucks in Charlotte last month. The Hornets are 7-3 SU and ATS in their games against Central Division opponents. Charlotte also is 5-2 ATS this season in road games with a posted total in the 200 to 204.5 range. The Bucks are 1-3 ATS in home games with a posted total in the 200 to 204.5 range. Milwaukee has a SU record of 20-78 in their last 98 games against teams with a winning record. Look for newly acquired Courtney Lee to have an immediate impact and help lead the way as the Hornets look to continue their playoff push tonight.

Rickenbach NBA *8* Detroit Pistons +2 @ Washington @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards got me last night. The Jazz played a very sloppy game and while Washington certainly deserves some credit for last night's win, this is still not a team I am impressed with. Also, off of an upset win as an underdog (Wizards ended up being a small dog last night), Washington has gone 2-8 ATS this season. The Pistons will be playing their first game since prior the All Star break when they lost as a home favorite against Denver. Detroit has been waiting quite awhile for their chance to get back on track and they are fired up and fully rested for tonight's game. That said, this is a team that is 9-1 ATS this season when they are off of an upset loss as a favorite. Also, tonight's game (as usual in a Washington game) is expected to be higher scoring and Detroit is on a long term 25-12 ATS run in games where the posted total is 210 or greater. With the Wizards playing the 2nd night of a back to back and off of an upset win, and with the Pistons well-rested with fresh legs and healthier bodies after the break PLUS being off of an upset loss as a favorite, Detroit is the play here and I'll gladly grab the extra line value as this game has already gone from a pick'em to a +2 for the Pistons. 

Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Harvard Crimson +7.5 @ Columbia @ 6 ET - Unbelievably the Crimson are 0-8 ATS in conference play this season. However, Harvard is off of a decent performance against the top team in the Ivy League, Yale, and the Crimson won their prior game versus Brown. Harvard failed to cover in the 6 point win over the Bears but the fact that they are off of a straight-up win and then a respectable effort against the Bulldogs has me eyeing an elusive "cover" for the Crimson Friday. The first match-up that Harvard had with Columbia was decided by just a single point and the Crimson are looking to avenge that tight loss Friday. Columbia is off of a loss to Princeton and has now failed to cover any of their last four games. Even though Harvard has had some trouble on the offensive end this season, Columbia has given up 75 points per game in their last 4 games. The struggling Lions defense should allow for Harvard to "stick around" in this revenge game and I just don't see Columbia ever truly pulling away in this game. That makes the generous points well worth the taking. After their tough, high-scoring loss to Princeton, look for the Lions to drop to 1-4 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Columbia will overlook a Harvard team that is much better than their record would lead you to believe. 

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #532 - *10* Minnesota Golden Gophers +10.5 vs Maryland @ 8 ET - For Minnesota, this is truly their game of the year. With a disappointing 6-19 season wrapping up over the next few weeks, the last chance the Golden Gophers have to really make some noise would be to knock off a top tier team like Maryland. They are catching the Terrapins at the right time to do just that. The Terps are off of an ugly home loss to Wisconsin. While it would be normal to look for a bounce back in a spot like this, the trouble for Maryland is the fact that they have not been shooting the ball well from the outside and now they'll be without a big man down low tonight. That will exasperate the situation because points won't come as easily in the paint for the Terps either. Since covering their first Big Ten road game this season the Terrapins have not had a single road cover by a margin of more than a point in Big Ten action. They are over-valued again here as the Gophers can absolutely hang within single digits here. As ugly as Minnesota's overall record is this season they certainly have been competing of late. The Golden Gophers have 5 covers in their last 8 games overall. Also, 2 of the 3 non-covers were games decided by single digits. In other words, the likelihood of a blowout here, especially in a big game on Minnesota's home floor, is highly unlikely. Maryland is just 1-5 ATS this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Also, the Terrapins were held under 60 points for the first time this season in their loss to Wisconsin Saturday. The past two seasons, when the Terps were off of a game where they were held to 60 points or loss, they only went 3-7 ATS in their next game. As strong as Maryland has been at times this season, this is a tough spot for them as they could look ahead to upcoming big games and they also are still hanging their heads about the loss to Wiscy. The Terrapins also only have a 4-3 SU record on the road this season and only a 12-15 road record the past three seasons combined. They'll be battling just to win this game...let alone cover it! Grab the big points with a game that truly is THE GAME for Minnesota as they look at this as a chance to make noise in an otherwise disappointing season.

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Utah Jazz +1 @ Washington @ 7:05 ET - The Jazz had won 7 straight games before suffering a tight loss in their final game before the all star break. Look for Utah to bounce right back here. The Jazz have been a different teams since Derrick Favors returned from injury. Favors was having issues with his back and, since his return, Utah has now won 7 of 9 with him in the lineup. The Jazz also recently were happy to welcome the return of Rudy Gobert to the floor. In games with both Favors and Gobert in the starting five, Utah has won 13 of 20 games this season. The Wizards have one of the top offenses in the Eastern Conference but their defense continues to be an issue. Washington also has been getting dominated on the boards in the month of February. The Wizards have lost 9 of their past 13 games and, in the Eastern Conference, only Brooklyn and Philadelphia have less home wins than Washington. The reason this game is in the pick'em range is because the Wizards have shown time and time again this season that their home court edge is practically non-existent. The Jazz are the hotter team and, even though the all star break can hurt a team's momentum, the fact that Utah is off of their first loss since January 25th makes this the perfect spot to back them. Look for the Jazz to get revenge for losing both games to Washington last season as the Wizards drop to 0-5 SU and ATS in their games against Northwest Division opponents this season.

Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Boise State Broncos +3.5 @ New Mexico @ 10 ET - Revenge is a great angle to play but it is not one you can just blindly buy into each and every time it comes up. In this case, the situation does indeed look "ripe" for a solid winner. Here we have the better team, the Broncos, playing with revenge and they are an underdog because of being on the road. That is the ideal scenario in my opinion. Boise State won both match-ups with the Lobos last season but then lost at home to New Mexico in their first meeting this season. In that game the Broncos had 14 more shot attempts from the field but simply had an "off" shooting night while the Lobos hit a surprisingly high percentage of their shots that night. That helps to give us line value tonight as a repeat of these types of statistical anomalies is highly unlikely. Additionally, the Broncos were knocked out of the conference tourney by the Lobos two years ago. Couple that with the home loss from last month and you can see why Boise State will absolutely be ready to go tonight. The Broncos are 6-0 SU and ATS the past three seasons when they are playing with home loss revenge. The Lobos are 7-12 ATS in February games the past three seasons combined. The Broncos are off of back to back hot-shooting games from three point land and they should get the revenging road win at New Mexico as the Lobos have been struggling to knock down threes in their first four games of this month. Ever since the first Boise State match-up New Mexico's shooting has cooled off. The Broncos will keep them cold in the rematch tonight.

Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Duke Blue Devils +7.5 @ North Carolina @ 9 ET - Too many points here in a huge rivalry game. Sure North Carolina has revenge on their minds as they have lost each of the last three meetings between these teams but I just don't see the Tar Heels being able to attain any type of significant margin in this game. The Blue Devils have only lost 6 games all season and 4 of those 6 games were decided by 5 points or less. Duke is brimming with confidence right now as they are off back to back key wins over Louisville and Virginia. North Carolina is also off of back to back wins but the victories came against a slumping Pitt team and a down-trodden Boston College team (whom the Tar Heels barely beat). Prior to the consecutive victories, UNC lost back to back games against Louisville and Notre Dame. Overall, in North Carolina's last 6 games there have been just two victories by more than five points. This is going to be a fierce battle like it usually is when these two teams match-up and I would not be surprised to see it decided by a single possession. That is why the big value here is with the generous points. North Carolina is an ugly 5-11 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Duke is 7-3 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons combined and 6 of those covers have been outright wins!

Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Seton Hall Pirates +2.5 @ Georgetown @ 9 ET - The Hoyas are off what was truly a miracle cover at Providence as they were down huge in that game before mounting a fierce comeback to get the cash in their loss to the Friars Saturday. While that ATS win looks good in the overall records when analyzing Georgetown it caught my eye as an opportunity to fade them in their very next game. While the comeback was nice for Hoyas backers that day, the big hole that Georgetown dug in the game was indicative of just how unstable this team is this season. The Hoyas also entered that game on Saturday having failed to cover 5 of their 6 prior games. Wednesday Georgetown is seeking revenge for a loss at Seton Hall back on the 6th of this month. The Hoyas lost that game by 8 points despite holding the Pirates to just 37% from the field in that game. That doesn't bode well for what can be expected for Georgetown tonight because that was the lowest FG % that Seton Hall had recorded in a month. In other words, don't expect a repeat tonight and adding fuel to the fire for the Pirates tonight is the fact they are off of a loss versus Butler last week. Seton Hall had previously covered 7 straight games and I look for the Pirates to get right back into the ATS win column tonight. Georgetown has a poor history of 6-16 ATS when the Hoyas are at home with a line of pick'em to -3. The Pirates are 8-1 ATS as dog this season and they are 6-1 ATS the past three season when they enter a game with 6 or more days of rest. Seton Hall has been off for a week and will take advantage by utilizing their fresh legs tonight.

Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Villanova Wildcats -8.5 @ Temple @ 7 ET - Under normal circumstances a #1 ranked team like Nova might get caught overlooking an unranked foe like Temple. However, that won't be the case here because of the Big 5 rivalry in Philly. This is a huge rivalry game in Philadelphia and the Wildcats will certainly not be short on motivation as a result. In my eyes, the Cats already had their "slip up nerve rattled game" that often comes with a #1 ranking. That happened in their poor effort versus St John's Saturday. With that ugly effort out of the way, look for the Wildcats to dominate Wednesday. Villanova won last season's meeting by 23 points. Yes that game was at home but, even in the prior season, the Wildcats won big by 16 points at Temple. The Owls just don't have the talent level that the Cats do. That is why you're seeing a big line here with Villanova. Yes Temple has been hot lately but they take a major step up in level of competition here. The Owls have losses to Houston, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, that came by an average margin of 22.3 points per game. Another ugly defeat looms here as Villanova improves to an incredible 20-1 SU and 17-4 ATS in February games over the past three seasons.

Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Massachusetts Minutemen +2 @ Fordham @ 7 ET - UMass is 3-6 on the road this season and Fordham is 11-4 in home games this season. Those are straight-up records and yet the Rams are only a two point favorite over the Minutemen as the host on Wednesday night. Line looks funny, doesn't it? Exactly! Don't be fooled by the "strange" line. Fade the masses here as they will all want to back the short home favorite when the reality is that Massachusetts is likely to get revenge for the home loss they suffered at the hands of Fordham last month. That is the only win the Rams have in their past six games as their shooting continues to struggle. In 4 of their past 5 losses Fordham has been held to 41.5% or less from the field. Also, the Rams aren't exactly tearing it up on the other end of the court either. Fordham has allowed at least 50% shooting from the field in each of their past 4 losses! That doesn't bode well for the Rams as they now try to slow down a UMass team that has won 3 of their past four games. The current combined record of the 3 teams that the Minutemen beat is 48-29 so these certainly weren't "gimme wins" by any stretch of the imagination. Massachusetts is averaging 76 points per game on the season while Fordham has been held to 67 points or less in 9 of their past 13 games. The Rams are 9-19 ATS (and 4-24 SU!) the past three seasons in games with a posted total in the 140 to 149.5 range and Fordham simply won't be able to keep up with a UMass team surging with confidence right now after totaling 177 points in their past two games. The Minutemen are a solid 5-2 ATS the past three seasons combined when they are playing with home loss revenge.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #545 - *10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels +9.5 @ Texas A & M @ 9 ET - The Aggies have lost four straight games and they are certainly looking for a big bounce back and are very happy to be back on their home floor tonight. However, just because odds are decent for a Texas A & M win tonight it does not mean that the Aggies are going to cover an inflated spread. The Aggies have not only lost four games in a row straight-up, Texas A & M also has failed to cover the spread in 6 of its last 7. Ole Miss comes into this game on the opposite end of the spectrum as the Rebels have covered 6 of their past 7 games. Ole Miss has won 4 of their past 6 games and, even though that was preceded by a four game losing streak, the Rebels have not lost a game by more than 9 points since a 22 point loss at Kentucky in their first game of the new year. That said, Texas A & M is no Kentucky! Look for the Rebels to challenge the Aggies throughout this game as Ole Miss has been growing in confidence with each SEC win they've been able to notch in recent weeks. In covering 6 of their past 7 games, the Rebels have been shooting the ball very well from three point land and the Aggies are unlikely to be able to pull away in this game as a result. Texas A & M is 4-8 ATS the past three seasons in games with a posted total in the 140 to 149.5 range as high-scoring games favor the opposition. That said, Ole Miss is fully capable of putting up big points and has scored at least 71 points in 11 of their past 12 games since that ugly loss to Kentucky. The Rebels are 4-1 ATS when off of a SU win in conference action and, while the Aggies are feeling the pressure, Ole Miss comes into tonight's game loose and relaxed. That is the most dangerous type of dog to face. Rebels are in this one all the way.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #501 - *8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons +11 @ Pittsburgh @ 7 ET - On one hand, this is a revenge game for Pittsburgh as they lost at Wake Forest March 1st last year. However, the prior spring the Panthers knocked the Demon Deacons out of the conference tournament so you can bet that Wake Forest will be ready to go tonight. The Demon Deacons came into this season with expectations that they were the most improved team in the ACC. However, after some impressive victories early this season in non-conference action, Wake Forest certainly has disappointed in conference action. But in this case the Demon Deacons are being given generous points by a Pittsburgh team that is having issues of its own. The Panthers have lost 3 straight games and 6 of their last 9. As it stands now, Pittsburgh is just 6-6 in the ACC and, in looking at their five most recent conference wins, three have come by 5 points or less. The Panthers also have big games on deck with Syracuse, Louisville, and Duke up ahead. Pittsburgh needs to get back into the win column Tuesday and I feel they will but that doesn't mean they will cover this inflated spread. The Panthers have allowed 48.6% FG shooting in conference games this season. By comparison, the Demon Deacons have allowed 45.7% FG shooting in ACC action. Overall, on the season, Wake Forest has played the tougher schedule as they had a tough non-conference slate. That said, and coupled with this Panthers team not having the defensive and rebounding prowess of prior teams, this line absolutely is going to be a challenge for Pittsburgh to cover. Wake Forest comes into this game having shot at least 44% from the field in their past three road games and they will not go away quietly in this one. 

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #848 - *8* Boston College Eagles +11.5 vs Syracuse @ 1 ET - The Eagles are a classic "Ugly Dog" and I see them getting the job done here. The Eagles poor record on the season means few, if any, want to invest in them and this often ends up resulting in an inflated line on the other side. This is exactly what we have here as Syracuse is laying about a dozen points even though they are on the road and in a true lookahead situation. The Orange are off of a big win over Florida State in their most recent game and now have games on deck at Louisville and hosting Pittsburgh on deck for this week. The combined record of these three teams - FSU, Lvl, and Pitt - is 52-19. The record for Boston College so far this season is 7-17. Do you really think Syracuse is going to be fully focused on BC here? Of course not! That spells trouble for the Orange today because the Eagles have built a little confidence with some respectable performances recently. Boston College only lost to the Tar Heels - yes THOSE Tar Heels - by only 3 points in the Eagles most recent game. That was the 2nd cover in the past three games for BC as they also battled hard with Virginia in a recent road game and easily covered an inflated spread. The Eagles have NOT lost the cash in any of their last three home games and they will want to make another statement today (like they did against UNC earlier this week) because, let's face it, that's all the Eagles are playing for right now. The biggest headline they could make at this point in a disappointing season is to knock off a solid ACC foe. Look for Boston College to again put up a hard-fought battle on their home floor and stay well within this inflated number as Syracuse drops to 4-8 ATS as a road favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. The Orange are also an ugly 3-9 ATS the past three seasons when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. 

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #659 - *10* Top Play Gonzaga Bulldogs +6 @ SMU @ 10 ET - Gonzaga is surging and SMU is fading fast. This is why, even though the Bulldogs are on the road here, Gonzaga is well worth the investment as the Mustangs have lost all of the swagger from their 18-0 start. SMU has now lost 3 of its past 5 games and they are hosting a Bulldogs team that is 20-5 on the season and has not a single game by more than 5 points this entire season. So, as of Saturday morning, with this line sitting at +5.5 or +6, Gonzaga is getting points in a range that would make them 25-0 ATS on the season. The Bulldogs simply do not get blown out and I certainly don't expect them to lose by much at all here either...if they even lose at all. The Mustangs padded their record with a lot of cupcake opponents early this season. Conversely, Gonzaga scheduled (and battled hard with) a lot of tough opponents in the non-conference portion of their schedule. I look for this to bode well in terms of being fully prepped for the situation they are walking into Saturday. Yes, SMU is 12-1 at home this season but Gonzaga is a solid 10-2 away from home this season and the Bulldogs are clearly playing the better basketball of these two teams right now. The Mustangs have struggled to close out tight games and I look for that to continue to be an issue in a match-up Saturday that is going to be difficult for the Mustangs to build any type of sizable margin in the game. The Bulldogs are 23-12 ATS the past three seasons when playing with one day or less of rest. The Mustangs are an ugly 2-7 ATS in home game this season and SMU again appears to be overpriced here. *10* Gonzaga.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #651 - *10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane +8 @ Connecticut @ 8 ET - The Golden Hurricane are being offered some extreme line value here and I won't pass it up. Certainly Connecticut has revenge on their minds here but they are simply not a strong team on offense and that makes it difficult for the Huskies to cover spreads in this range. UConn scored just 51 points in their loss at Tulsa earlier this season and the Huskies are an ugly 1-7 ATS the last three seasons when they are a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. This is simply a tough price range for a UConn team that prides itself on defense and struggles to put up big points. Another key angle here with regards to the value on Tulsa in this match-up is the fact that the Golden Hurricanes were knocked out of the AAC Conference Tourney last year by Connecticut. Tulsa also lost in their most recent visit to UConn and that was an ugly loss by 25 points nearly a year ago to the day. That said, a little paypack is on order here and the Golden Hurricane are surging with confidence after their win at SMU on Wednesday. Tulsa has averaged 79 points per game in their last three games and all three opponents were solid AAC teams. This does not bode well for a Huskies team that has struggled in home games against quality opposition. Connecticut lost home games to Cincinnati and Temple and only averaged 55 points per game in those two games. The Huskies may get the win this time over a quality foe at home but I don't see them winning this game by more than one or two possessions. *10* Tulsa.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #606 - *10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins -9 vs Wisconsin @ 6:30 ET - Many may look at the revenge angle here for Wisconsin and will be backing the Badgers. However, this truly has all the makings of a blowout win for Maryland. The fact that the Terrapins only beat Wisconsin by 3 in Madison is part of the key to this game. The Terps were up by 8 with less than a minute and a half to go in the game. Maryland let Wiscy back in it over the final minute plus of the game and narrowly escaped with the 3 point victory. Rest assured, the Terrapins learned their lesson and Maryland won't let the Badgers hang around in this game. The Terps will take advantage of a Badgers team that doesn't shoot well at all on the road. In fact, Wisconsin is averaging 62.6 points per game on the road this season while the Terrapins average  solid 80 points per game at home. Coincidentally, a victory in the range of a 15 to 20 point margin of victory is what I would expect here. The Badgers have taken advantage of a friendly schedule recently (with easier road opponents and getting the tougher opponents at home) and the result has been a 6-game winning streak. All this has done is set up Wiscy with false confidence heading into a game in a venue that will result in a complete mismatch for the Badgers Saturday. They don't have the athleticism to keep up with Maryland and Wisconsin does not shoot well enough on the road to keep up with the Terrapins. The fact that Maryland nearly lost at Wiscy after blowing a late 8 point lead in Madison last month ensures that the Terrapins will keep the hammer down late in this game. Instead of allowing an 8 point lead to get whittled down this time that lead will turn into an ever bigger lead and the blowout will be on and will stay on. Maryland is off of an easy win over a non-conference opponent so their lineup is well rested and the Terps have a 6-18 Minnesota team on deck so the Terrapins will absolutely put everything they have into this game Saturday and that's bad news for an over-matched Badgers team. *10* Maryland

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #631 - *8* Virginia Cavaliers +2 @ Duke @ 4:30 ET - The Blue Devils have such an incredible history in home games that they are likely to be a popular choice in this match-up with highly-ranked Virginia on Saturday. The key to the value with the road dog here includes the fact that the Cavaliers are seeking revenge for a home loss they were dealt by Duke last January. This is the first meeting since then and the Cavs certainly come into this one red hot and ready to go. Virginia not only has shot better than the Blue Devils this season, the Cavaliers also are superior on defense and certainly they have turned things up a notch in recent games. The Cavs have won 7 straight games and, in covering 3 of their past 4 games ATS, the Cavaliers have held all 4 opponents to 39% or less from the field. To properly put that into perspective, Duke has allowed 10 of its past 12 opponents to hit at least 42% from the field. The fact that Virginia is finally realizing that they must play stifling defense to get where they want to go this season and achieve their goals is leading to some fantastic line value here with the Cavaliers. By taking the Cavs, we have the revenge angle, the vastly superior defense, the hotter team, and we're getting a few points to boot! Duke has already lost at home to Syracuse and Notre Dame and Virginia is superior to both of those teams. Grab the points with the Cavaliers.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #505 - *8* Georgetown Hoyas +4 @ Providence @ Noon ET - With their victory at Georgetown two weeks ago, Providence has taken three straight games in this series. However, all three Friars wins have been by 4 points or less. Not only do the Hoyas have revenge on their minds here, Georgetown is also catching Providence at the perfect time for the upset. The Friars have lost three straight games since the win over the Hoyas. Providence has struggled on offense this season and this has been particularly true of late. Additionally, the Friars are not known for their defensive prowess so when the offense struggles, Providence struggles. Georgetown certainly has the superior defense in this match-up and the Hoyas also have the "triple revenge" angle working in their favor here. Georgetown enters this game off of a confidence boosting 92-67 win on Monday. The Hoyas defense will be the difference maker in this one and Georgetown is 9-4 straight-up this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Providence is 5-8 ATS in home games this season and the Friars will be in a fierce battle just to win this game...let alone earn the cover. In other words, the value is with the road dog plus the points. Expect a Georgetown upset but grab the points just in case.

Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Penn Quakers +9.5 @ Columbia @ 7 ET - Penn just swept their weekend set with Dartmouth and Harvard for the first time since 2008. The Quakers, a young team, have certainly started to jell as the season has gone on. That makes Penn a very dangerous dog in this spot. There is no quit in these Quakers and they've been hitting the boards hard and winning the rebounding battles as well as cutting down on the turnover issues that plagued them early this season. Penn's overall record may not be that impressive but the key here is the growth of the team and the confidence they now have heading into this weekend as well as the fact that many of their early season defeats were tight losses. 6 of their 10 losses dating back to late November have come by 6 points or less. This includes a pair of OT losses. One of those OT losses was to a tough Princeton team and the Quakers also have another tight loss (by just 4 points) to a solid Temple team this season. The point is that it is going to be tough for Columbia to pull away in this game. Even though the Lions split their games this past weekend they were somewhat fortunate to even get that split. The defense for Columbia was bad in each game as they were lit up for 50%+ from the field overall (as well as from beyond the arc!) in both games. The Lions also could "relax" a little this weekend now that they are finally back home and this means a sagging defense against a foe they could easily overlook since Penn has a losing record on the season and Columbia has Princeton on deck Saturday night. Big value with the hungry and surging road dog in this one! Grab the points with Penn for a *10* Top Play Friday.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #755 - *10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes +2.5  @ Indiana @ 9 ET - Not surprisingly, the whole world has jumped on Indiana early in this one. The line has gone from as low as a pick'em to the Hoosiers now being favored by 2.5 points. Of course everyone is looking at the perfect home record Indiana has and is feeling this is a "gift" from the odds makers. Of course there is no such thing and I see even bigger value with this play now that the Hawkeyes are getting a few points. Iowa won at Indiana last season so there is certainly no intimidation factor here. Also, the Hawkeyes come into this game having won 16 of their past 18 games. One of those losses came by just a single point. That is why there is such huge value with Iowa in this spot. The Hawkeyes are the better team defensively. Iowa also has the deeper bench. The Hoosiers will try to bounce back tonight after the loss at Penn State on Saturday but, make no mistake about it, that was a crushing Big Ten loss for Indiana. That is the type of defeat that is toughest to bounce back from as the Hoosiers (a 9 point favorite) certainly had no business losing that game. However, disappointing their backers is nothing new for Indiana as they have failed to cover 3 of their past 4 games and I again feel they are getting to much respect from the betting public in this match-up. Don't fall for the trap here. There is a reason this line opened near pick'em even though the Hoosiers are undefeated at home this season. Iowa continues to fly under the radar and yet they are 8-3 ATS in Big Ten action this season. Look for yet another solid cover tonight.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #751 - *8* Illinois State Redbirds +9 @ Evansville @ 9 ET - The Redbirds lost by double digits to the Purple Aces last month and that game was at Illinois State. With that said, why should we expect things to change at Evansville? Amazingly, the Redbirds lost by 11 to the Purple Aces despite having 75 shot attempts in the game compared to just 44 for Evansville. This is another one of those statistical anomalies that is serving to give us line value in the rematch. Now, since Evansville is hosting the Redbirds and already won by double digits at Illinois State, many will expect the Purple Aces to roll at home. That is unlikely to be the case. The Redbirds come into this game having won 5 of their past 6 games since the frustrating loss to Evansville. Also, Illinois State has covered 4 of its past 5 games and the lone defeat they've had in this stretch came by a single point. Tonight the Redbirds are a 9 point dog at Evansville. This is huge line value as the Purple Aces come into this game slumping. They are off of a big win versus Missouri State that covered but previously had gone 1-4 ATS since the win over the Redbirds. Also, Illinois State's confidence is sky high after knocking off Wichita State Saturday and overcoming an unusually poor shooting night in that game. Look for the Redbirds to bring forward some of that same defensive intensity tonight as their D got all the credit for the win over the Shockers. Look for a repeat of another big effort on that end tonight. The Purple Aces are 2-5 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more.

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Washington Wizards +1.5 @ Milwaukee @ 8:05 ET - The Bucks barely held on to beat Boston on Tuesday and this was just the 2nd win for Milwaukee in their last 9 games. This is the final game before the All Star Break and Washington is intent on earning the series sweep against the Bucks for the season. Not only have the Wizards won all 3 meetings this season, Washington has taken 8 of the last 10 meetings between the teams. The Bucks welcomed back a couple players in Tuesday's game against the Celtics but neither contributed much and Milwaukee was very fortunate to escape with the victory. Now Milwaukee must try to match-up with a red hot John Wall. He and his Wizards teammates have created some significant match-up issues for the Bucks this season and I look for that to continue to be a problem tonight. Wall has been red hot for the Wizards and, overall, Washington has shot a sparkling 49.3% from the field in their last 6 games combined. The Bucks shot surprisingly well against the Celtics on Tuesday but previously Milwaukee had been held to 43% combined in their prior two games. The Wizards have won the cash in 6 of their last 8 road games and I expect them to enter the break with a fourth straight ATS cover in all games overall. Look for Washington's dominance of Milwaukee to continue tonight and, overall, the Wizards are 7-2 ATS against Central Division opponents this season. The Bucks are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 games against teams averaging 99 points or more per game on the season and Milwaukee simply won't be able to keep up with the potent offense of the Wizards Thursday. 

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #723 - *8* Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers +6 @ Oakland @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Panthers and I see huge value with them getting a half dozen points on the road. UW-Milwaukee suffered a home loss to Oakland last month by 3 points and that was largely due to some ridiculous three-point shooting by the Golden Grizzlies. They knocked down 11 of 17 threes while the Panthers hit a more normal 10 of 34. The point is that Oakland scored more from three point land even though they took half as many shots. That is certainly a statistical anomaly that is unlikely to be repeated here and, keep in mind, the difference was just 3 points (ironically) in that game. Now the Panthers are on the road seeking revenge but that should not be cause for concern. UW-Milwaukee is a fantastic 7-2 ATS on the road this season. In fact, the Panthers have only two losses this entire season that have come by more than 4 points. As for Oakland, they have produced an incredible ATS record this season so the odds maker has no choice but to now inflate their lines. The key to me going against the Golden Grizzlies here is not only the line value but also the fact the few losses Oakland has had this season have come (as you would expect) when they take a step up in class and the Panthers are absolutely one of the top teams in the Horizon League. Don't be surprised if UW-Milwaukee gets the outright win here and certainly the value is with taking the points here with the road dog Panthers.

Rickenbach NCAAB #569 - *10* Top Play San Jose State Spartans +15.5 @ UNLV @ 10 ET - It is no secret that the UNLV basketball program has had issues this season. The key here is that the Runnin' Rebels are not showing any real signs of turning things around and I expect they will have their hands full in dealing with a surging San Jose State team tonight. While the Spartans have won two straight (including an upset win over a solid Fresno State team), they have had a full week off to prepare for this game with a slumping Rebels team. UNLV has lost three straight games both SU and ATS and they've been trying to work in some new defensive looks. The problem is that it is not going well as the Runnin' Rebels have allowed 99 points per game in their past two games. UNLV truly has not had a solid performance defensively in the past two and a half weeks. As for the Spartans, they've started to jell well as a solid unit and San Jose State has held their last two opponents to just 53.5 points per game and a combined shooting percentage in the 31% to 32% range. This gives the Spartans some solid momentum and confidence heading into this match-up with UNLV and the big points appear to be well worth it considering the situation. The Spartans have covered 3 straight games and eight of their last ten. The Rebels came into the season with much higher expectations and yet have not been able to live up to those and they are constantly (and unsuccessfully) having to make changes on the fly. In conference action this season, UNLV has only one win by more than 12 points. I don't see them getting another one here. The Rebels are 2-4 ATS this season when off of a loss in conference action. A big bounce back is unlikely here. The Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, on the season, San Jose State is 3-0 ATS when they're off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. *10* on Spartans with the big points here!

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #559 - *8* Missouri Tigers +17 @ Vanderbilt @ 9 ET - The Tigers have had another tough season to say the least but the fact is that the Commodores are simply over-priced here. Missouri has covered each of their past two games. After a tough, tight home loss to Ole Miss last Wednesday, the Tigers then showed some resolve in battling hard at Alabama on Saturday. Even after getting down big early in the second half, Missouri kept "pushing it" against the Crimson Tide and eventually lost by single digits. The Tigers are showing they have no quit and I like the big points here against a Vanderbilt team that is a money-burning 3-8 ATS in SEC action this season. In SEC action the Commodores don't have a single win by more than a margin of 18 points and, with the way the Tigers are battling right now I think this line is definitely inflated today. Vanderbilt has been very sloppy in recent games and turnovers are a concern. That's going to be a problem in "putting away" Missouri in this match-up. The Commodores shot much better than the Rebels in their 7 point loss at Ole Miss on Saturday and that says a lot about the other problems that Vandy is having on the floor right now. In home games with a total in the 135 to 139.5 point range the Commodores are on a long-term 11-20 ATS run. Vandy is 1-3 ATS when off of a loss to a conference foe so they have struggled to bounce back off of SEC defeats thusfar. Also, the past three seasons combined, Vanderbilt has lost 5 of 6 games when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Look for the Tigers to get their third straight ATS cover here as the recent suspensions have actually helped this Missouri team as they have played better now that the off-court issues have been handled. 

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 vs Toronto @ 8:05 ET - Minnesota had been playing much better before their home loss to New Orleans on Monday. That defeat on their home floor was simply a 'dud' and just 'one of those nights' and I look for the Timberwolves to bounce right back tonight. Prior to that defeat, the T-wolves were on a 6-2 ATS run. Minnesota has outrebounded each of their last five opponents and that margin has been double digits twice. Minny is a young team but simply is playing hard and the units have grown more cohesive as the season has gone on. This has paid off for sharps in terms of cashing a few more tickets at the window lately and, after the 'dud' versus the Pelicans, the Timberwolves are likely to bounce back strong tonight. The Raptors have dominated this series of late and that makes it easy for Toronto to underestimate Minnesota. That will prove to be a mistake as the Raptors are off of an easy win at Detroit but that was preceded by a 1-4 ATS run in their past 5 games. In fact, the win over the Pistons was the first time since January 28th that the Raptors had defeated an opponent by more than seven points. The Timberwolves won't be an easy match-up for Toronto. The Raptors are 9-15 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. Toronto had allowed 104 points per game in their first three games of this road trip and the Raptors were fortunate that they shot a ridiculous 56% from the floor in their win over Detroit. The Timberwolves have been shooting the ball extremely well and, in their last five home games, they've averaged 112 points per game! They will be tough for Toronto to put away here and I am forecasting the outright upset here but I will grab the generous points being offered! *10*

Rickenbach NBA *8* Denver Nuggets +6 @ Detroit @ 7:35 ET - The Nuggets are fired up off of a tight loss at Brooklyn on Monday. Denver had previously covered 7 straight games and was on a long-term 13-2 ATS run. This is the last chance for the Nuggets to get into the win column before the All Star break and they've got the right match-up to do it. Detroit is on a 6-10 SU and 6-10 ATS run their last 16 games. The Pistons have allowed about 55% shooting from the field in their last two games and this is nothing new as Detroit has allowed at least 100 points per game in 7 straight games. The Pistons have allowed an average of about 107 points per game during this stretch. The Nuggets, before their loss to the Nets, had allowed 96 points or less in 3 of their past 4 games. Denver is 13-4 ATS when off of a non-conference game this season and has gone 17-9 ATS in all road games this season. While the Pistons do put up a lot of points, the Nuggets have covered 8 of their past 9 games against teams averaging 99 points or more per game on the season! Detroit is on a 9-16 ATS run as a home fave of 3.5 to 6 points and 12 of those 16 losses were outright defeats! In going 4-7 in their past 11 games the Pistons had only 1 win by more than 6 points and that was against the league-worst 76'ers! In other words, as you can see, there is a ton of line value here with underdog Denver as we are able to challenge Detroit to do something they've only done once in their past 11 games...and the Nuggets aren't the Sixers!

Rickenbach NBA *8* Orlando Magic +8 vs San Antonio @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs did get the win and cover at Miami last night. That was despite allowing 57% shooting. San Antonio, already without Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, has a tough situation here because of a back to back. As mentioned above, the Spurs got the cover last night and it's certainly worth noting that in 3 of their last 4 back to back situations San Antonio has FAILED to cover both games. It's tough to do and, after getting the cash last night, I look for the Spurs to fall short tonight. The Magic played tough with the Spurs in their recent meeting in San Antonio but they simply fell short in the fourth quarter. That is a scenario that is unlikely to be repeated here. The Magic were down just five points to the Spurs on February 1st and then got outscored by 10 points in the fourth quarter. But, on the road and in a back to back, I am not expecting such a significant "end game edge" for San Antonio here. Orlando has been playing much better of late with covers in 5 of their past 6 games. The Magic are off of an upset win on the road at Atlanta Monday and Orlando is an incredible 8-1 ATS this season when off of an outright upset win as an underdog. In other words, the Magic have been solid at sustaining momentum. Orlando is also 8-3 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 105 points or more. Against the Western Conference this season the Magic have gone 13-5 ATS. Look for another big non-conference COVER on Wednesday. 

Rickenbach NBA *6* Miami Heat +7 vs San Antonio @ 8 ET - The Spurs have had an insane ATS record this season and finally the odds makers have adjusted properly and San Antonio has no longer been the ATS machine it was earlier this season. The Spurs failed to cover at home against the Lakers on Saturday and their covering road win at Dallas had followed a stretch of three straight non-covers on the road. Overall, the Spurs bring a 3-5 ATS run their last 8 games into tonight's match-up at Miami and I look for San Antonio to drop to 1-4 ATS their last 5 road games. The Heat are fired up as they are off of a tough home loss to the Clippers Sunday and Miami has revenge on their minds here as they lost both match-ups with the Spurs last season and that was after having losing in the NBA Finals 4 games to 1 in June of 2014. When the Spurs are in town, it is always a big deal to Miami and the Heat will be ready to go tonight. Miami had covered 6 of 7 before the home loss to the Clips. Also, the Heat have already won 5 of 7 against Southwest Division opponents this season. The Spurs recent ATS fade on the road continues here. 

Rickenbach NBA *6* Boston Celtics -4.5 @ Milwaukee @ 8:05 ET - This is simply a case of two teams heading in opposite directions right now and I see nothing that is likely to change the recent patterns of these teams tonight. In fact, the return of OJ Mayo for the Bucks could "throw off" the current player rotation for the Bucks even more. That's bad news when you consider just how "fluid" Boston's offense has been of late. The Celtics have won 4 straight games and 9 of their last 10 as their offense has led the way. Boston is off of another huge performance as they put up 128 points on Sacramento on Sunday. Milwaukee has been going the other direction as they have lost 5 straight games and 7 of their last 10 as their offense has faltered. Even though their defense kept them in the game at Utah Saturday you may be surprised to know that the Bucks are an incredibly ugly 4-20 ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 85 points or less! The Celtics are 15-9 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored 105 points or more and Boston has won 15 of their 21 games against teams with a losing record this season. With a non-conference home game on deck there is no way the Celtics will overlook this Eastern Conference foe and the Celtics domination of losing teams this season continues Tuesday night.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #744 - *6* Creighton Blue Jays +1.5 vs Xavier @ 8 ET - The line certainly looks funny here and long-time followers know what I am doing as a result. We're fading the masses who will line up on Xavier with their 21-2 record on the season and basically being installed as a "pick em" in this game. The Musketeers are a highly-ranked team and facing an unranked Creighton team and yet basically just being asked to win the game here. Look for Xavier to prove to be "fools gold" in this match-up. The Musketeers have faced some weaker Big East foes recently and that has allowed some bad habits to develop on defense. Xavier has allowed an average of 82.5 points per game in their past two games and the Musketeers are allowing a combined average of nearly 50% shooting from the field in their past three games! Creighton was able to get their offense going in their most recent game at home and that gives them confidence heading into a big home match-up with Xavier. The Blue Jays want this game badly and are known for putting up some huge performances on their home floor. They have played the Musketeers very tough in recent seasons including a one point home loss last year and a big road win at Xavier. The season prior the Blue Jays knocked the Musketeers out of the Big East tourney. Xavier is 3-11 ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Creighton is 5-1 ATS this season in games against teams averaging 77 points or more.

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #718 - *6* Purdue Boilermakers +1 vs Michigan State @ 7 ET - This game is in a "pick em" range and I love taking the lower ranked team in a match-up like this especially when they are at home. No doubt the Boilermakers will be motivated for this game as the Spartans have won each of the meeting the past two seasons. Purdue catches Michigan State at a good time as the Spartans are off of a big win over the in-state rival Wolverines. The Boilermakers are off of a rare loss and the final score is not indicative of how tough Purdue played at Maryland on Saturday as the game was much closer than the final score would lead you to believe. The Boilermakers have not lost two straight games this entire season and, after that road loss, I look for them to bounce back strong on their home floor tonight. Both Michigan State and Purdue are allowing just 63 points per game this season but the Boilermakers are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season when facing teams that are allowing 64 points or less per game. The teams' offenses are each averaging in the 78 to 80 point range this season and the Spartans are an ugly 2-5 ATS this season in their games against teams averaging 77 points or more per game. 

Rickenbach NBA *8* Denver Nuggets -2 @ Brooklyn @ 7:35 ET - Though this is a back to back spot for the Nuggets they are 7-4 ATS in the second game of back to backs this season. Also, Denver did play early yesterday and there is not any significant travel issue for tonight's game because Denver was already in New York for the match-up with the Knicks yesterday. The Nuggets now face a Nets team that has lost 16 of its past 20 games as they are off of a loss to the lowly Sixers on Saturday. Brookyln has shown a pattern of 1 win followed by 5 straight losses ever since the New Year. That means that the loss to the Sixers is likely just the first of 5 straight defeats for a Nets team that has simply struggled badly all season. Conversely, the Nuggets are surging and have been huge at the betting window too with 6 straight covers and an overall 12-2 ATS run. The past three seasons the Nuggets are 7-0 straight-up when they are a road favorite of 3 points or less. Denver went 5-0 ATS (two games pushed) in those 7 match-ups. Look for Denver to improve to 5-0 ATS against Atlantic Division foes and 12-5 ATS in non-conference match-ups as the Nuggets continue to be under-valued when facing teams from the weaker divisions that are back east in comparison with the tough competition that Denver faces out west. Brooklyn is on a 3-10 SU (and 4-9 ATS) run in their last 13 games as a home dog of 3 points or less. The Nuggets lost both games with the Nets last season and this included a 28 point beatdown in Denver in the most recent match-up a year ago. This ensures that the Nuggets will have the proper focus here and that means a road rout should ensue on Monday night.

Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play St John's Red Storm +14.5 @ Georgetown @ 7 ET - Both of these teams will be hungry tonight but the feeling here is that the Hoyas are simply desperate for a win and certainly haven't been playing like a team that would be poised for a blowout victory. Georgetown has lost 5 of their past 7 games. The two wins that the Hoyas had during this 7 game stretch came by a combined margin of 10 points. Georgetown is also on an 0-5 ATS run entering Monday's action. The Hoyas are allowing an average of 74 points per game in their last six games and they're playing a St John's team that truly challenged Xavier in their most recent road game. The Red Storm lost to the Musketeers by just 7 points. This game followed a game where they battled hard with Villanova before falling by 15 points in the 2nd half. Georgetown is certainly no Villanova this season and I look for it to be difficult for the Hoyas to created a lot of separation in this game. The Hoyas have struggled to find their rhythm on offense and the defense simply isn't what it use to be. In other words, this is not the Georgetown of seasons past. St John's was off of back to back covers against powerful Xavier and Villanova before getting thoroughly embarrassed on Saturday against Butler. That ensures the proper focus here for the Red Storm as they just suffered their worst loss since November. Oftentimes a team struggling with a losing streak like St John's is proves to be better off on the road than at home. The pressure to finally win a game is far greater at home. That said, the Red Storm have been shooting the 3-ball quite well in recent games and have battled hard with some top tier competition. I look for them to stay within single digits tonight against a Hoyas team that is not playing like the same Hoyas team that beat the Red Storm by 20 earlier this season. St John's is on a long-term 14-8 ATS run as  road dog of 12.5 to 15 points. The Red Storm also is 7-4 ATS the past three seasons when playing with home loss revenge. Also, I mentioned the ugly loss to Butler above and the Red Storm are 4-1 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less. While some may look for a Georgetown response here, the fact is that this line is inflated and the Hoyas are on a long-term ugly 10-20 ATS run when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Denver Broncos +6 vs Carolina @ 6:30 ET Sunday February, 7th - This line has gone all the way from an opener of a 4 all the way up to a 6 as of a week and a half before the game. I could wait longer but truly would be shocked if this goes all the way up to a 7. That's why I am pulling the trigger now that we're seeing solid +6 available. At least we've achieved one key number (6) and, as noted above, I really don't see this getting all the way to a 7. However, it certainly is apparent that the whole world is enthralled with Carolina after the beatdown they put on Arizona in the NFC Championship. This is giving some exceptional line value to Denver in the Super Bowl. Denver beat a very experienced Patriots team to get here. In and of itself, that says a lot about these Broncos. I feel that all the tight games Denver has been involved in this season are going to carry a ton of weight in this Super Bowl. Carolina's win over the Cardinals in the NFC Championship was honestly almost "too easy" and let's not forget they were also afforded a rather easy win in the divisional round. That's because the Panthers took advantage of a Seahawks team that didn't even belong there. Honestly, Seattle never should have got past the Vikings the week before as that missed Minnesota field goal will live on in infamy. All this said, I feel that battle-tested Denver is where the value is in the Super Bowl match-up. The Broncos have the Super Bowl experience edge with Gary Kubiak over Ron Rivera. Kubiak has a big edge in terms of player experience and in terms of assistant coaching experience in the Super Bowl in comparison with Rivera. Denver is now 14-4 on the season with only two losses by more than 3 points. The Panthers 17-1 mark on the season certainly is exceptional but note that their last 3 games away from Carolina featured their one outright loss and the other two games were both victories BUT they came by just 3 points apiece. The Broncos aren't going to go way easily in this one, not after being thoroughly embarrassed in that 43 to 8 debacle in the Super Bowl two years ago. Denver and Peyton Manning are ready to make amends for that horrific effort. Grab the points for a *10* Top Play with the Broncos.

Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Utah Utes +6 @ Oregon @ 4 ET - Not surprisingly the whole world is likely to flock to Oregon here. I certainly thing the line looks a little funny and, being a contrarian, that means I am all over the Utes in a big way here. The Ducks are 14-0 at home this season and 46-5 in home games the past three seasons combined and yet they opened up as a 5.5 point favorite in this game! Strange, isn't it? Especially when you consider that Oregon blasted the Utes in Utah by 18 points just 3 weeks ago! The fact is that it is "never that easy" in this business and what I see in this particular match-up is that the low number on the game is justified because I wouldn't be surprised at all if Utah wins this game outright. The Utes have a powerful inside game but were limited by the Ducks in the first match-up because of the defense of Chris Boucher. Even though Boucher is likely to play in today's game, he does have an issue with an ankle injury right now. The Utes have lost four straight games against Oregon (including in conference tourney last spring) and this is a significant revenge game for Utah to say the least! Utah is ticked off after a last second loss at Oregon State Thursday and will be fired up to get back into the win column as they had won five straight games previously. The Utes had played solid defense in three straight games before the debacle against the Beavers. Also, Utah has been shooting the ball very well since the home loss to the Ducks. It's payback time on Sunday and I feel this is the perfect spot for revenge with Oregon getting a little over-confident thanks to their current hot streak. As a home fave of 3.5 to 6 points the Ducks are on a 2-4 ATS run. The Utes are on a 4-1 ATS run as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Grab the points with Utah for a *10* Top Play Sunday.

Rickenbach NBA *8* Orlando Magic +3 vs Atlanta @ 1:05 ET - Orlando has lost four straight games to Atlanta so this is a huge revenge spot for the Magic hosting the Hawks. The Magic have been battling hard but still falling short in many of their recent games. After beating Boston, Orlando has lost three straight even though they've taken a total of 27 more shots than their opponents in out-shooting them in each of the past three games. The hard work will pay off and the Magic are hosting a Hawks team that is off of a big win over Indiana Friday. Atlanta won the game despite getting out-rebounded by 20 boards in the game! The Hawks were fortunate as hot shooting definitely bailed them out. However, prior to a hot shooting win at Philadelphia (and who doesn't dominate the Sixers?), Atlanta had been held to a shooting percentage of 43% or less in 6 of their past 8 road games. The Hawks also have been held to 43.3% or less from the field in 2 of their past 3 visits to Orlando. Atlanta is known for enjoying the "nightlife" on Saturday nights and has gone 6-14 ATS in Sunday games the past three seasons combined. Conversely, Orlando is 3-1 ATS in Sunday games this season. The Magic are also 3-1 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less this season. Orlando is the hungrier team in this match-up and with this being the front end of a home and home set the Magic know they need to take this game tonight because it is not easy to win in Atlanta. Value to the hungry home dog in this one. Grab the points.

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks +6.5 @ Memphis @ 8:05 ET - The Grizzlies are off of a hard fought win at New York last night as Memphis was very nearly upset by the Knicks and it took a minor miracle in the final seconds for the Grizzlies to cover that game. Although Dallas was also in action last night there was nothing hard fought about their game as the Mavs were down big early and essentially cruised to an ugly loss to the Spurs. Dallas rested their key players as last night's game was decided rather early. That means fresh legs for the Mavericks here while the Grizzlies are likely to be spent from last night's hard battle in New York. Memphis has fared well in the second game of back to back games this season but the Mavericks beat the Grizzlies in their most recent meeting and Memphis is only 5-9 ATS when playing with revenge this season. The Mavericks are looking to move to 3-0 both SU and ATS this season when they are a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Also, Dallas is 9-4 ATS this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more. The Mavericks have lost three straight games but they are 4-1 SU and ATS the past three seasons when they enter a game on a losing streak of three games or more. Dallas is on a long-term 24-14 ATS run in games played at Memphis and this one sets up perfectly. The Mavs are getting sizable points, have the motivational edge off of a loss last night, and have the fresher legs based on the way last night's games played out for these two teams. 

Rickenbach NCAAB Game #639 - *10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels -2.5 @ Notre Dame @ 7 ET - Huge revenge game for North Carolina. Not only did the Tar Heels lose to the Fighting Irish at home last season, they then proceeded to lose to Notre Dame in the conference tournament championship game last spring. It's payback time here and the Heels are catching the Irish at the right time to impose their will. The Fighting Irish have lost two of their past three games and are consistently getting beat off the dribble. Notre Dame's coach provided a little bulletin board material too by stating there is no longer any "intimidation factor" for the Fighting Irish when facing the Tar Heels. Not smart to make a statement like that and I look for North Carolina to be fired up on Saturday. Other than dominating defensive efforts against a bad Boston College team (twice) and Georgia Tech (once) the Irish have not performed well at all on defense in conference action. You know the Tar Heels are going to "bring it" on that end of the floor Saturday as they seek revenge and, unlike an Irish team that has failed to cover 9 of its last 13, North Carolina has a sparkling 19-3 straight-up record on the season and every single one of those victories has come by at least five points. When UNC is in a price range of pick 'em to -3 they have gone 3-0 ATS the past two seasons. February is "crunch time" in the ACC and the Tar Heels are on an 11-5 ATS run in February games while the Fighting Irish are on a 5-10 ATS run in February games. Also, if you're looking for ND to bounce back just because they are off of an ACC loss, note that the Irish are 5-13 ATS the past three seasons when off of a loss in conference action.