NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (-) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - This is more of a play against the Steelers than a play on the Raiders but either way I do like this spot for laying the points with Las Vegas. The line is available at a 2.5 as of early game day morning and the Steelers are on a short week and traveling west and their off a key divisional win. They were heavily outgained by the Browns and so it is a deceiving win for the Black and Gold. This Pittsburgh team is just not that good as I have written before about them heading into this season. The Steelers have been continuing a downward trajectory and I faded them when they were destroyed by the Niners in Week 1. I know that they got the win last week but that was a gift-wrapped game from the Browns and the stats show that Pittsburgh has really struggled early this season. The Raiders are off an ugly loss but they faced an angry Bills team that is one of the best teams in the league. Buffalo was playing its home opener and was off a loss and the Raiders were in the wrong place at the wrong time. From the start of the season until October 9th, this is the only home game for Las Vegas and so they will make the most of this home opener. Also, under coach McDaniels they covered five of six times ATS when facing a team that was off a SU/ATS win like the Steelers are here. Pittsburgh started last season 1-4 and the year before 1-3 and Tomlin is in for another slow start this season and they will not be so lucky again this week like they were hosting Cleveland. First road game of the season for the Steelers and the Raiders have the rest edge and situational edge and roll huge at home. 10* LAS VEGAS (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) @ Washington Commanders @ 1 ET - Look around the league at undefeated teams after just 2 weeks of the seasons and one of the surprises is Washington. That is helping give us some value this week because this team is not that good and it is an undefeated team that deserves to be faded now. Adding to the value is the fact that Bills are just 1-1 this season. Buffalo already got knocked off in that OT opener loss to the Jets and they took out their frustration on the Raiders last week in a 38-10 blowout win. They are not done yet because now the mantra is to prove they can win on the road. The Bills will not rest here just because they won big last week at home. This team will be on a mission again here on the road. Also, there are triple perfect angles supporting this play. Note that coach Sean McDermott's teams have won six in a row ATS when they are off a game in which they scored at least 35 points. They will carry momentum here! As for Commanders coach Ron Rivera he has not fared well when his team has at least a .500 record on the season and his team is installed as an underdog as his teams have lost seven in a row ATS in that situation. Also, the Commanders have a divisional foe on deck in the form of the Eagles and they have lost four (or five depending on line) in a row ATS when Philadelphia is up next for them. All this is just situational data but the fact is it further supports our play here. Buffalo has been one of the top teams in the league in recent seasons while these Commanders have not had a winning season since the 2016 season. This line is around a 5 as of early gameday morning and this is in an excellent value. 10* BUFFALO (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7:30 ET - It is impossible to forecast the exact timing of the rain but showers followed by heavy rain and some wind - not too windy but possible gusts - are moving into the area because of Tropical Storm Opheila. State College, PA is over 200 miles away the ocean but the fact is those bands of rain are coming deep inland and I love having big points with an underdog when conditions are a little bit sloppy. This is particularly true when it is a defensive-minded dog that likes to run the football. I know that the Nittany Lions have a great record so far and have looked good but they benefited firstly from rather easy opponents then first two weeks - dysfunctional West Virginia team and an FCS team (Delaware) - and then secondly from Illinois turning the ball over 5 times against them last week! Penn State is a rock solid team and I really like their QB too. They have the definite aerial attack edge in this match-up but you can tell by the low total posted on this game, this one is expected to be a low-scoring defensive-minded rush-oriented match-up. This Hawkeyes team has a very tough defense and they are well-coached. Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach in the nation and has been here for a quarter-century now! The Hawkeyes have won the the last two meetings outright and, while I am not anticipating that here, I am expecting this one to be decided by a one-score margin. That means excellent line value with Iowa available at +14.5 and no less than +14 as of early gameday morning. We'll take it! 10* IOWA + points

CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +1.5 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 4 ET - This is a great spot for a home dog because the Stampeders are not only off a bye week, it was preceded by an ugly loss at Edmonton in which they had a disastrous 4th quarter and gave up 18 points unanswered in the loss. That means the Stamps can't wait to get back on the field make up for that loss to the Elks and they have extra energy - physical and mental - as they have been off for two weeks leading into this. Montreal has lost 4 straight and their win before this losing streak was by just a 1-point margin. Stampeders having a rough season too but this set-up is perfect for payback. 10* CALGARY +1.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (-) vs UCLA Bruins @ 3:30 ET - This line has been all over the place because of the uncertain status of QB Cameron Rising for the Utes. Let me tell you what we do know about this match-up. Kyle Whittingham is a better coach than Chip Kelly. The UCLA young quarterback has played well but makes his first ever PAC-12 road start. The Bruins are playing right into the teeth of revenge as UCLA won a tight one (though double digit final margin of 10) over Utah last season. That was the 1st win in 4 tries for Kelly with the Bruins against Whittingham with the Utes. The first 3 meetings...how did those go? Utah won all 3 by at least 20 each team and with an average margin of victory at 32 points! There is nothing average about that and the Utes defense got embarrassed last season at UCLA. That is where one of the biggest keys lies in this rematch. Everyone is talking about QB Rising and the fact he may miss again but the Utes offense has still been decent and they still have the better defense in this match-up plus they are at home and plus this Utah defense wants to prove that last season was an aberration. A lot of key factors including a solid low number here (3.5 as of early gameday morning) have me all over the Utes in this one! 10* UTAH (-) points

CFL Friday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +6.5 vs BC Lions @ 9:30 ET - Great spot for the Elks as a home dog. Both teams off comeback wins last week but the Lions win was particularly improbable. The BC defense has not been what it was earlier this season and the Elks grind the ball on the ground more than the Lions do. I feel they can grind out a win here but, of course, am grabbing the points. Edmonton has been playing better for quite awhile now and have won 4 of 5 and the only loss was by 4 points! As for BC, the Lions have beaten Edmonton by a combined score of 49-0 in the first two games so you know this one has been circled on the Elks calendar. Edmonton wants this game. Keep in mind, the Lions are just 3-3 SU last 6 and one of those wins was by only 4 points. This one goes to the wire and an outright upset would not surprise me in the least. 10* EDMONTON +6.5

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - Laying double digits in the NFL is always a scary proposition in my book and the situation becomes even tougher on a short week. That's because a lot of things have to go right to beat any NFL team by double digits. That is why you don't see many double digit lines in the NFL. Being fully prepared to blowout a team is even tougher when playing on a Thursday after a Sunday win over a divisional foe. SF has failed to cover 6 of last 7 on Thursday when coming off a SU win in their prior game. This line is a solid 10.5 at the time of this posting and I feel we have excellent value with the big road dog in this one. Everyone is still thinking about the Giants losing to Dallas 40 to 0 in Week 1 primetime but are forgetting that the Cowboys only had 265 yards of TOTAL offense in that game! To put that in proper perspective, this 49ers team (which certainly is strong and has a solid defense too) allowed 297 PASSING yards to the Rams in their win last week! So lets not bury the Giants just yet in comparison to the Niners. The Giants got caught still lamenting the embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys when they were down by 21 midway through the 3rd quarter at Arizona last week. However, the Giants rally did two things last week. It gave them a win of course, which is big, but the bigger thing it did was give them confidence. This Giants team feels much different now emotionally and mentally heading into this battle with the Niners and they have done very well as a road dog under HC Brian Daboll as they went 8-2 ATS in that role last season. I know Saquon Barkley is out for the Giants here but guess who Matt Breida started his career with? San Francisco of course! Watch Breida have a huge game against his former team and the Giants surprise in this one! I am not saying they win this one outright but I am feeling confident in a game decided by a one score margin. Give me the double digits here! Daboll will have his team ready and he was Coach of the Year last season and will not be embarrassed again on primetime like they were in that sloppy week one loss to the Cowboys. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS (+)

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Coastal Carolina (-) vs Georgia State @ 7:30 ET - This series has been dominated by the road team recently and, in my opinion, that is keeping the line (6.5 at time of this posting) on this one lower than it should be. Coastal Carolina is really rolling under their new coach after all the changes made after last season's last collapse. I like this Chanticleers team. I am not crazy about their defense but they have enough offense to dominate in this one. Keep in mind, new head coach Tim Beck was offensive coordinator at NC State and he has this offense firing on all cylinders now. They have played the tougher schedule than Georgia State thus far. The Chanticleers had to face the Bruins at UCLA and having that one really tough game and a SU loss helps them here. Georgia State is 3-0 SU but has not really been challenged yet. The Chanticleers are 3-0 ATS this season as they did cover in that SU loss at UCLA. The Panthers have been allowing more points than Coastal Carolina and CC has the stronger offense too. Combining all that with the home field edge, the play here is the home team as laying less than a TD is a real bargain here and the current line is 6.5 on this one at time of posting. The Chanticleers are 100% ATS this season and I am happy to test that here. Look for 4-0 ATS after this one goes in the books! 10* COASTAL CAROLINA (-)

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 -105 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - Both pitchers off strong starts against the respective lineups they most recently faced. The Phillies proved last night they can play the home run game too and truly they are a lineup loaded with home run power. That said, they are getting 1.5 runs here at a fantastic price and it is too good to pass up when you consider the pitching of Christopher Sanchez as well. Yes, Spencer Strider is off a a great start versus Philly but he allowed 10 earned runs in 9 innings in his two starts prior to that so he could relapse here. He has had another huge season but, unlike Sanchez, he is not flying under the radar. The thing is, because Sanchez does not have a good record and missed some of this season, he is very undervalued. Not only off solid outings of late, he also has a minuscule 1.29 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. On the road here, here and the homer-happy Phillies will keep this one interesting and might even get another big win tonight. If they lose look for it to be decided by just 1 run. A lot of value here with this run line. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers + vs New Orleans Saints @ 7:15 ET - Dennis Allen is head coach of the Saints. With the win he got last week, his NFL career head coaching record is 14-38. That is not a mistype. 14-38 is his career record. I know the Saints could win this division this season but the NFC South is truly a bit of an up for grabs type of division these days so that is not saying much. I personally think even the Panthers could ultimately challenge. Frank Reich was offensive coordinator of the Eagles when they beat the mighty Patriots in Feb of 2018. He then went to be head coach of the Colts and had a 40-33 record with them including taking them to the playoffs twice. His record is not fantastic but Reich has a leg up on Allen when it comes to head coaching edge in this match-up the way I see it. I know the Saints have the more established QB now and the Panthers were done in by turnovers last week but they will be better here at home in week 2. Also, they actually outgained the Falcons by 60 yards in that week 1 loss. That is the same Atlanta team that beat GB yesterday and though that win was by just as single point, the Falcons actually outgained the Packers by 200 yards and actually only punted ONCE the entire game! That is domination and the points is that the way the Panthers defense played in week one looks even more impressive now as the Falcons are 2-0 and flying high on offense. The offense of Carolina will be better this week and Reich's background is offense. So the key here is this is a solid defense that can contain the Saints offense. New Orleans benefitted from turnovers in their week 1 win so this is another point of value here in evaluating week 2 match-ups. Now with this line at a solid +3 and you might even find some 3.5 starting to show up, this is an excellent home dog spot. The Panthers were 4-0 ATS in home games last season when coming off a road loss in their prior game. They respond at home here and I expect an outright upset win but will grab the points just in case. 10* CAROLINA +

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New England Patriots + vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - The dominant number as of early game day morning is 2.5 but there is a little bit of 3 out there. Either way I am looking for an outright win here for the home team but it is nice any time you have a line that sets up where a 2 point loss is still a win as well and that is the case here. First off, I like the home dog factor here. Secondly, I like the fact the Patriots fell short against the Eagles despite outgaining them last week. Did you see how Philly than ran all over the Vikings Thursday? Give this Patriots defense some credit for holding Philly in check last week! As for the Dolphins, they are off a shootout win and I love fading teams off high-scoring wins like that. The fact Miami snuck away with the victory over the Chargers even though they gave up a pile of points and big yardage set this one up well. The Dolphins may not fully realize how much they need to focus on the defensive side of the field for this one. They come in 1-0 but off an effort in which they allowed 34 points plus huge yardage on the ground. After playing in LA last week the Dolphins now go coast to coast for this one and the Pats threw for over 300 yards last week. I know Miami piled up yardage too but their D is a weakness. I trust NE to get some stops here and the Pats offense will be able to move the ball all game long. They threw well against Philly plus the Dolphins proved last week they are susceptible on the ground so the Patriots should enjoy plenty of success here on offense and I expect the defense to hold up. 10* NEW ENGLAND + points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The current line on this as of early gameday morning is 8.5 and this an over-reaction to the Cowboys 40-0 win last week and the Jets losing Aaron Rodgers to season-ending injury. Keep in mind, Dallas actually only won the yardage battle by 94 yards last week. That does not equate to a 40-point beatdown of course. That is not much of a yardage edge. The Jets have a very strong defense that can also create havoc and turnovers as the Cowboys did last week. In fact, the Jets proved that with their upset of Buffalo in OT Monday night. I know this is a short week for the Jets but it is still early in the season and you are still talking about fresh bodies that are in much less banged up than as the season goes on. Later in the season, short rest is more of a factor. The Cowboys were originally around a FG favorite in this game. Now they are favored by more than a TD. Take advantage of the line value here. The Cowboys are actually 0-4 ATS the last 4 times they are at home and coming off a game in which they scored 40 or more points! Look for Dallas, known to stumble at home in spots like this, to come in overconfident after last week's big road win over a division rival. Conversely, the Jets are well aware of the blowout win that the Cowboys just delivered in their own stadium (the stadium they share with the Giants) and they will be geared up and well prepared for the upset win here. Their defense will really test Prescott in this one just like they did against the Bills Allen. They may not get the outright upset but I expect this game to be decided by a one score margin. 10* NEW YORK JETS + points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens + @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - As of early Sunday morning there is still some 3.5 available on this one and even if TE Andrews does not play for Baltimore I do expect them to get the cover in this match-up. Looking for an outright win but we will grab the points just in case. I am aware of RB Dobbins now out for the year for Baltimore. However, have you seen the different running backs the Eagles are using this year and how they ran all over Minnesota Thursday night. The point is that if a team has the right play-calling, a solid offensive line, and is well-coached they get their ground game going no matter who the running backs are. Of course Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is also an ultra-dangerous threat with his legs too and keeps defenses honest. He was not available when Ravens lost at Cincinnati in the post-season last year. The fact is, however, the Ravens significantly outgained the Bengals in their 3 match-ups last season even though the majority of those stats were without starting QB Jackson which, unlike RB, is absolutely an extremely critical position. You see where I am going with this...we are getting even more line value here because of the RB injury for the Ravens. This is a major revenge game for Baltimore and they used last week's blowout win over the Texans as a tune-up for this game. As for Cincinnati, they were in the process of a blowout loss last week at Cleveland. You might think that makes this a great spot for the Bengals but actually they have failed to cover 7 straight times when in the following situation: at home and favored by less than a TD and coming off an ATS loss by a double digit margin. That makes this a play against spot for Cincinnati and I look for this play-against angle to reach 8 WINNERS IN A ROW as this spot is further strengthened by the revenge aspect for the Ravens and the fact this is a division rival too. 10* BALTIMORE +3.5 

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys + @ Texas Longhorns @ 8 ET - The Cowboys are catching the Longhorns at the right time to hang tough in this game. There is a lot of value here with Wyoming currently catching as much as 30 points as of early gameday morning. This Cowboys defense returned virtually everyone from last season's team and they are very solid on that side of the ball. Texas is off the huge win in upset fashion at Alabama last week and they have their Big 12 opener next week. Not only that, it is nearby Baylor who they are facing. The Longhorns and Bears do not get along at all. They are rivals and do not like each other so this is absolutely a sandwich spot for Texas. The Horns off the upset of Crimson Tide and opening their Big 12 portion of the season next week. Of course I am not saying the Longhorns lose this game but I just can not see them winning by more than 2 or 3 touchdowns. Wyoming has confidence from the OT win versus Texas Tech. Remember the Red Raiders beat this UT team last year! Again, I am not saying Wyoming is as good as is Texas Tech and the Red Raiders are as good as Texas! Not at all! I am just saying that you can see the Cowboys will not be intimidated here and they have a veteran defense and they have the added confidence of a 2-0 start. I think UT has been very benefited by the turnover margin early this season and this is the type of game where some of those bounces finally do not go their way. The Cowboys will hang around in this one and stay inside the inflated number. 10* WYOMING + points

CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (+) @ BC Lions @ 7 ET - This line available as high as a 10 as of overnight hours heading into Saturday. Love this spot for a road dog cover. Yes, the Redblacks are on a losing streak but they have been very competitive and will not back down from the Lions here. Yes, BC is a strong team and at home with rest but if you look at their stats in recent weeks they have not been impressive. The Lions have shown some issues, particularly on defense, and I expect this scrappy Ottawa bunch to hang around in this one. The Redblacks have played 12 games this season and, though they have lost 6 straight and 9 of 12, look at home competitive they have been. Only two of their games have been losses by more than 10 points and those featured margins of defeat of just 11 and 13 points. Take out a 19 point win that Ottawa had and look at the average margin of their other 11 games (including all 9 losses) and you will come to an average of 5.8 ppg. Again, this line is just too much in a game likely to be decided by a TD or less. BC was dominating earlier this season but they are just 2-3 SU last 5 games and one of those wins was by a single digit margin. This one goes to the wire! 10* OTTAWA (+) points

CFB Saturday 10* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) @ Illinois Illini @ Noon ET - This line is holding at 14 as of early game day morning. Remember 2 weeks ago when Penn State punched it in late (just seconds left on the clock) for a "meaningless" TD against West Virginia that gave them a 23 point win in a game in which they were favored by 20 points? That is the kind of stuff to keep in mind when you are contemplating whether or not you are comfortable laying big points with a team. This Nittany Lions team is off to a hot start and yes I know they played an outclassed Delaware team last week but the fact is PSU is rolling with confidence on both sides of the ball right now. This is a much different situation than the last time they faced Illinois and this Illini defense is also much weaker than that one. That match-up I am referring to was only 2 years ago in 2021 but the Nittany Lions entered that game off their first loss of the season. They were demoralized and flat after their 5-0 start to the season came crashing to a halt against Iowa. Penn State went on to lose to Illinois in a crazy OT game of defensive prowess that took forever to finish in a multi-OT slugfest. Things are much different this time around and the Illini do not look nearly as strong for this rematch. Their defense is not as strong and Illinois is 0-2 ATS because they barely got by a MAC team in Week 1 and then got hammered by Kansas last week. Certainly Toledo is a respectable opponent and the Jayhawks are much more respectable than they used to be. However, now the Illini face a revenge-minded and stacked Penn State team that will not hesitate to pile up points even with a big late lead. I expect this one to possibly be tight early for a bit but eventually the much stronger road team pulls away for a win by at least a 3 TD margin the way I see it. There is also a perfect trend here that has gone undefeated the last 14 times involving Penn State. That is that when the Nittany Lions are entering a match-up against a conference foe and PSU is coming off B2B wins both SU and ATS, they have not failed to cover in any of the last 14. There is one push in the bunch and we could see a push here if this one lands on 14 but I am looking for another win by 20+ for this road team! 10* PENN STATE (-)

CFB Friday 10* Top Play UTSA Roadrunners (-) vs Army Black Knights @ 7 ET - Maybe we will see -7 on this but I want to get this play written up and out to all my customers and the current number is 7.5 and 8 as of Friday morning. Army has some impressive stats already but they played Delaware State - an FCS school - and UL Monroe. Note that the latter (the Warhawks) have won only 8 games the past 3 seasons combined! The Black Knights are a solid scrappy team and can be a tough underdog. But they gave up a pile of points to the Roadrunners last season. I know that Army also scored well in that one but I look for the Runners to be much tougher defensively at home in the rematch. I know UTSA has not been overly impressive early this season but they faced a couple of in-state foes that really had it out for them. Texas State is improved - already upset Baylor - and Houston is a tough in-state foe. In terms of strength of schedule, it is really night and day between these two teams so far this season. Adding to the value here is that UTSA is fully aware that they will NOT have another home game until mid-October! So this is it until a month from now and they will make this one count and they will be relentless. Note that this line was double digits and now has moved down to almost a 7. I love spots like this where the betting markets have adjusted a line substantially. More often than not the move is not warranted. I get it that Army can be a tough dog but this Runners team is solid and has been great under the current regime and won about 75% of its games over 4+ seasons! In terms of covering the spread here, Army's last 8 losses in true road games have seen 6 come by a double digit margin. That is a 75% rate of double digit losses in road defeats in recent seasons that dates back to the 2020 season. More of the same here. 10* UTSA (-)

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings + points @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 8:15 ET - Sure I would rather have 7+ points in this game rather than the current number of 6 or 6.5 as of early gameday but I am not going to let the line movement sway my original thoughts on this one. Those are summarized in the fact that this is a tough spot for the Eagles to win, let alone win big! Note that the Eagles were outplayed last week at New England. We had Philly and though they were up 16-0 at one point early on they really were fortunate and we were fortunate to get the win and cover there as they hung on for dear life late. Conversely the Vikings were done in by 3 turnovers in the home loss to Tampa Bay last week. Philly off a fortunate win and not realizing how badly they played because they still won. Vikings off an unfortunate loss and can't wait to get back on the field. That said, I love having the points in this match-up as Minnesota goes for revenge and they are angry too. They lost here last season but went 13-3 in the rest of their regular season games last season! Last week, the Eagles barely beat a Patriots team that is a mediocre .500 team the last three YEARS combined! In terms of technical angles, in the first quarter (four games) of a season the Eagles have lost 12 of 13 ATS when they are favored against a team that has a losing record and is off an ATS loss. Also, in early season (first quarter) games in the season like this, Philly has lost 14 of 18 ATS when facing a team with revenge. The key is the situation here and how these teams TRULY played last week and the fact we get about 6 points to work with here as well. However, I will also mention an interesting stat that the Eagles have gone 0-7 ATS when they have a Monday Night game on deck. Up next for Philly is a Monday night affair at Tampa Bay and I think the Eagles will think their overall clout and home field will be enough here versus the Vikings but this Philly team has issues on both sides of the ball right now. Minnesota got embarrassed here in an early season primetime game last season and they make up for that here in a big way as the Vikings might even pull off the shocker upset but I see at least a cover here. That said, I expect the play against trend involving the Eagles here makes it 8 IN A ROW in this one! 10* MINNESOTA + points

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers -14 vs Navy Midshipmen @ 7:30 ET - Longtime followers know I am not big on laying big points in any sport. However, on occasion - when the situation is right - I will not hesitate to step in and lay the lumber. This is one of those rare cases. The Midshipmen are only as good as their QB. It has been that way for a long time and it is not changing anytime soon because they are so dependent on him with the type of offense they play. That said, scoring 24 points on Wagner in game they were favored by 42 points is not a good sign. Remember this was on the heels of a season opening shellacking at the hands of Notre Dame. Navy scored only 3 points in that game. No the Tigers are not the Fighting Irish. However, the Midshipmen have missed the mark ATS by at least 18 points in each of their first two games. That said, I have no hesitation here in rolling with a Memphis team that is so strong offensively that they can pile up big points here and Navy will not be able to keep up. Yes the Tigers faced overmatched Bethune-Cookman and Arkansas State so far but still they have looked solid on both sides of the ball. The way Memphis can score points very quickly and very well and the fact the D looked good against a Red Wolves team that averaged 25 points per game on offense in each of the first two seasons under head coach Butch Jones, don't be surprised if the Tigers roll huge here at home. Remember that big win last week was at Arkansas State and now they are at home here for this visit from Navy. 10* MEMPHIS -14

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 -105 vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:40 ET - Getting the Phillies at a pick'em price on the run line here is a bargain price. The Braves have taken 2 of 3 so far in this series but both their wins were in extra innings. Strider is the big name pitcher here but he is off a rough outing and has been dealing with an illness. He is over-priced here. He could struggle again just like the prior start and may not be fully recovered from his illness that pushed this start back. Strider is the big name guy so the markets are all over the Braves here. The Phillies, however, continue to fly under the radar compared to the Braves. This Phillies team is a strong team and was in the World Series last year. Sanchez is flying under the radar too because his record is not that impressive. This guy hardly ever gives up much on the mound and Atlanta has no significant experience against him. He is likely to be a pleasant surprise for Philadelphia here as a result. The Braves have coughed up the lead in the bottom of the 9th of both of their wins in this series. There is a lot of value with the +1.5 runs here. The Phillies, at +1.5, would be 8-2 (80%) last 10 games and one of those two losses was in extra innings by two runs. Philadelphia had won 17 of 26 at home before yesterday's extra innings loss and I look for Strider to struggle again while Sanchez surprises. Sanchez has quietly allowed 2 or less earned runs in 7 of his last 9 starts. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -105

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys (-) @ New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - The Giants deserve some respect here but the Cowboys continue to have their number. I just do not see that changing here. Note that the Giants entered last season having gone 14-35 the 3 prior seasons. Then last year they made the post-season and even won a playoff game before getting blasted by the Eagles. However, New York started last season 6-1 and then went 3-6-1 the rest of the way in the regular season. This means that we are still talking about a team that, outside of last year's hot start to the season, has gone 17-41-1 in their other 59 regular season games the past 4 seasons. Yes, the Giants certainly showed improvement last season as they even made playoffs. However, isn't it concerning they won those games early in the season and then struggled the rest of the way? This is a classic case of getting line value because the better team in the match-up is on the road. With a line of -3, we are basically just asking the Cowboys to win this game. Dallas has actually had tremendous success in this role as they have covered 20 of last 23 (excluding pushes) when they are a divisional favorite of more than two points. The Giants, when I look at their receivers, just do not have the talent level to match a determined Dak Prescott with his bolstered receiving group and I feel the Cowboys will eventually put away in this game. Value with the short road favorite here. Lay it. 10* DALLAS (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - The current line on this one as of game day morning is 3.5 and the Patriots saw 8 of their 9 losses (including all 4 at home) come by a margin of at least 4 points last season! Also, take a look at the Eagles final 9 games last season. Prior to a 3 point loss in the Super Bowl, Philadelphia had gone 9 straight games without a single game decided by less than 5 points. The point is that I am picking the winner in this game to be the Eagles and the above stats are also why I feel confident that laying the points is not an issue. Philadelphia is, of course, one of the best teams in the league right now. The Patriots, ironically Brady is being honored at today's game by the way, is nowhere near the level of team they use to be in the Tom Brady days. So the point is we are getting a lot of line value here considering the Eagles are not only expected to win their division this season, they are a Super Bowl contender again. Compare this to a Patriots team that many project will end up in last place in the AFC East this season. So, the point is that we have line value here on the surface and it looks even better as you dig deeper here. Jalen Hurts over Mac Jones at QB. A relentless Eagles defensive line attacking a key weakness in this Patriots team (offensive line shaky in preseason). Also, the Pats have some injury issues in the offensive line plus there were already concerns at the tackle positions. The Patriots will ride some emotions for awhile here (season opener at home and honoring Brady) but eventually the Eagles will pull away as the visitors in this match-up hold key edges all over the field. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (-) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - Look out! The Steelers are back! After all, they went 7-2 to close out last season to make sure Tomlin's long streak of having not had a losing season for the Steelers remained intact! Of course I am writing with sarcasm here because this Steelers team is not that strong ladies and gentlemen and this is a bargain line to have the much stronger team and essentially just ask them to win the game. The line is currently a -2 as of early gameday morning and the 49ers are coming off a fantastic season. They are the better team defensively, stronger at the all-important QB position, and are very well-coached. That is not to say Tomlin is not a good coach but the fact is San Francisco has the stronger roster and I really like what the Niners have been doing in recent seasons. As for Pittsburgh, now I come back to that 7-2 season-ending run. Two of the games were against the rival Ravens and they did manage a 1-1 split here. In the other 7 games however, the 6 wins the Steelers had came against teams that ALL had losing records when they faced them. Those 6 teams, at the time Pittsburgh met them, had a combined record of 30-44-1 and NONE of them had a winning record. All 6 of those teams ended up missing the playoffs and ALL 6 had DOUBLE DIGITS in losses at the end of the season. The point is that the Steelers season-ending run was not so impressive when you consider those factors and now they face a 49ers team that nearly went to the Super Bowl last season! Indeed, my money is on the Niners here at an absolute bargain price. This Steelers team is just nowhere near the team they use to be and last season was the 3rd time in 5 years that they have missed the post-season. 10* SAN FRANCISCO (-)

CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders + points @ Edmonton Elks @ 7 ET - Yesterday I successfully went again Ottawa as they were winless in their divisional games this season but laying 4 points. Today I do the same with going against Edmonton as the Elks are winless in their divisional games but are laying 2.5 points here. Note that the Elks do have right back revenge in play here as they lost at Calgary in a high-scoring tight game last week but revenge tends to be an over-played angle. The fact is that the Stamps are the stronger overall team and, with another win, they can keep their playoff hopes still very much alive even after a sluggish period within this season. As mentioned yesterday "Note the Elks are the only West Division team without a SU divisional win. Similarly, the Redblacks are the only East Division team without a SU divisional win. Edmonton is 0-7 in divisional games and Ottawa is 0-5 in divisional games"... and now Redblacks are 0-6 SU this season. Similarly, yes this is a divisional game for Edmonton and we are fading this 0-7 spot for the Elks and we are even getting a few points to work with. I'll take it! Look for this play-against angle to improve to 8-0 but we'll also grab the points for added insurance. 10* CALGARY +

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +110 vs Miami Marlins @ 6:05 ET - The Phillies let me down yesterday - the lone loss on the day - as they blew a 2-run lead and lost 3-2. No hesitation in coming right back with them here off a tight loss like that. This is particularly true when they have a huge pitching edge. Regardless of starters, I will go with Phillies here but definitely I like the projected starting pitching match-up here. The Phillies are going with Aaron Nola and he is off a rare bad start after he had been enjoying a dominating stretch. Nola is known for pitching great at home and 9 of his last 11 starts have been fantastic. In those 9 starts Nola has allowed a total of only 12 earned runs! Yes that is an average of a measly 1.3 runs per start and I expect him to dominate here. As for the Marlins, they are going with Johnny Cueto here and he has not been impressive at all. He is 1-3 with a 5.54 ERA and he has allowed 9 homers in his last 5 starts and those have spanned 27 innings. So count on him to give up a couple homers here against a power-hitting Phillies lineup in this one. Look for Phillies to win in a rout so we will grab the plus money on the run line in this one. Amazingly, 20 of the last 21 wins for Philly have been by 2+ runs. As for the Marlins, 22 of last 26 losses have been by a multi-run margin. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +110

CFB Saturday Ole Miss Rebels - points @ Tulane Green Wave @ 3:30 ET - Both teams off huge wins last week but Tulane did face the much tougher test but still it was impressive that Ole Miss scored 73 points unanswered after allowing a 75-yard touchdown on the opening play of the game! That said, from a technical standpoint, the Green Wave have not performed well in situations like this. They have failed to cover 6 of the last 7 times when they are home off a double digit ATS cover and are hosting a team that is off a straight-up win. Conversely, this situation sets up well for Ole Miss from a technical standpoint. The Rebels actually have covered nine straight times when they are favored by five or more points and facing a team off a win both SU and ATS. Outside of technical data here, I like the fact that Ole Miss had a great start last season and then faded late in the season. The Rebels have a little extra hunger here and will again do great in non-conference action this season. Of course the SEC the much tougher conference in comparison with the American Athletic Conference. That being said, this AAC team is off a great season but they lost quite a bit from that team and the Green Wave had a 2-win season the year before! In other words, Tulane is still a solid team but of course this is a program that is nowhere near the level of Ole Miss. I also feel the Rebels defense is improved entering this season while the Green Wave defense has taken a step back. This one could be close for awhile but eventually the visitors pull away. They simply have too much offense and are so stacked offensively and are well-coached and Tulane will not be able to keep up for the full 60 here. Wish we could lay less than a TD but I do expect the Rebels to win this by a double digit margin as that ATS streak I mentioned above reaches 10 straight wins! 10* Ole Miss Rebels - points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers + points @ Colorado Buffaloes @ Noon ET - There is some +3 still out there at the time of this posting though it looks like 2.5 could end up being the dominant number on this one. Either way, I like Nebraska as I am actually expecting an outright upset here so really I do not expect the points to be a factor. The Buffaloes are being anointed as title contenders now after just one game. Give credit to coach Sanders for having his guys ready and pulling off the massive upset of the Horned Frogs at TCU last week. However, it is one game! Now there is film out on this team. And guess what...the defense does NOT look good! They allowed over 540 yards to the Frogs last week! Conversely, the Cornhuskers allowed about 250 yards (less than HALF of what TCU allowed) as they fell just short at Minnesota. The Huskers know they should have won that game outright (they did cover ATS) and will be extra hungry for the outright win this week. Keep in mind, most everyone is sick of hearing about Colorado and coach "Prime" and this Cornhuskers defense will come to play and now there is film out on what the Buffaloes offense is capable of. The Huskers allowed just 55 rushing yards to a fantastic rushing team in Minnesota last week. Nebraska now faces a Buffs team that ran for only 55 yards last week. The Cornhuskers were done in by turnovers last week and keep in mind Coach Rhule is a solid coach with NFL experience too and he gives them a coaching edge here. Also, they actually ran for nearly 200 yards. So now we have a defensive-minded underdog with the rushing edge as well. I love spots like this and am going to challenge this over-hyped Colorado team to beat us through the air. Give coach Sanders and his group credit for the upset last week but things can change in a hurry in the college football world and that is particularly true of a new roster of players with a new coach that now has been introduced to the college football world. As they (unlike TCU) now have an idea of what is coming for them this week, one word describes the Cornhuskers here: READY! 10* NEBRASKA + points

Friday CFB 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks -3 vs Illinois Illini @ 7:30 ET - This is not the Kansas of old - not under head coach Leipold - no way! As for the Illini - coach Bielema has a poor history in road openers (or 1st neutral site game - anything away from home to start season) and he is 0-2 ATS here with Illinois already. Overall, Illinois is 0-4 ATS L4 years in road openers, the last two with Bielema at the helm. Last week the Illini were at home at home and were favored by nearly double digits against Toledo and yet were outgained and had to win the game on a field goal with just a few seconds left on the clock. I know the Jayhawks pulled away late in their win over FCS opponent Murray State but they also were without starting QB Jalon Daniels who I believe was held out of that game simply because coach Leipold felt they could easily beat the FCS Racers without him. They did end up ultimately winning 48-17 and Daniels is likely getting the start this week. Either way, I like the fact that the Jayhawks are returning one of the most experienced rosters in the country, Leipold is really starting to build something here, the Illini have Big Ten opener versus Penn State on deck, and Kansas has a situational edge factor since they have an extra day of rest (played Friday) plus are home again this week! The Illini are on a short week and have the Nittany Lions on deck plus they are traveling for this one! The Jayhawks have only a non-conference game at Nevada on deck so this is easily the most important early season game for them while the same can not be said for Illinois. This line was around a 4 and I know it may seem hard to trust the Jayhawks as a favorite but the fact the line has moved down to a 3 has me liking this one even more. This line is as of early Thursday morning for the Friday evening affair. Lets jump on it! 10* KANSAS -3

CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +4 @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7:30 ET - Yes, the Ti-Cats failed to cover in their home loss to Toronto last week. However, the yardage in that loss by a double digit margin actually had Hamilton with a slight edge! The week before they had won big at BC over the Lions. This Ti-Cats team is stronger than their record. There is line value here because the Redblacks are coming off their bye week and they are at home and everyone sees the final score of the Argonauts win over this Hamilton team last week. That is causing an over-reaction toward the Ottawa side here. Lets not forget this Redblacks team lost to West Division cellar dweller Edmonton the prior week in a non-divisional battle. Note the Elks are the only West Division team without a SU divisional win. Similarly, the Redblacks are the only East Division team without a SU divisional win. Edmonton is 0-7 in divisional games and Ottawa is 0-5 in divisional games. Yes this is a divisional game and we are fading this 0-5 spot for the Redblacks and we are even getting a handful of points to work with. I'll take it! Look for this play-against angle to improve to 6-0 but we'll also grab the points for added insurance. 10* HAMILTON +4 

Thursday NFL 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 vs Detroit Lions @ 8:20 ET - Everyone is excited about the Lions this season and I am not saying they will not be better but I do feel they still have a ways to go - at least on defense. That said, the Chiefs have long been known for being tougher on defense when they are at home. So now start to dig deeper in this match-up and you will really see some value in this one! The Chiefs were favored originally by a touchdown here and the line was holding near 7 until the Travis Kelce injury. That has resulted in this line dropping to the 4.5 range as of early gameday morning. Even if Kelce does not play here, I still look for the Chiefs to roll here but I actually feel he will play and he will be fine. Plus consider the normal 3 point assessment given to home teams in the NFL. That means this line of 4.5 is saying the Lions are very nearly as good as the Lions on a neutral field. Now ask yourself, if this was the Super Bowl and the Lions were meeting the Chiefs - this would be neutral field of course - would the line really be nearly a pick'em? Of course not! This line has been over-adjusted because of the early season hype on the Lions and the Kelce injury situation. Our job is to find value situations like this and take advantage and we'll do just that here! Yes the Lions finished last season hot with an 8-2 run but has anyone bothered to look at who they played? Remember teams play 17 games now and Detroit's 10-game run only featured two teams that ended up with more than 9 wins on the season. Against those two teams, the Lions beat the Vikings but lost to the Bills. Again, I will say Detroit is improved and they have a solid offense but I don't trust this defense and I don't think they march into Arrowhead on opening night and get a win. The Lions 4 road losses last season were by an average margin of defeat of 16 points! I love playing dogs and I love upsets but sometimes laying the points is absolutely the way to go and this is a fantastic value play here! 10* KANSAS CITY -4.5

CFL Monday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders - points vs Edmonton Elks @ 7 ET - This is a great set-up for a play on the home team. The line was up near a 6 and is now down to a 4 at the time of this posting. Also, the Stampeders are off 3 straight losses but this followed a win over the defending champ Argonauts that had Calgary sitting at a still ugly, yet more reasonable, 3-5 on the season. Now, after 3 straight losses, I feel certain the Stampeders are going to get going again here. They catch the Elks off B2B wins but Edmonton was 0-9 this season before that. Now they are just a 4 point dog here even though the Stamps are at home? This line is basically saying these teams are equal on a neutral field. I am not buying that as it was not that long ago the Stampeders were 3-5 and the Elks were 0-9! Another thing favoring the hosts here is they have a rest edge over the visitors in this one. So while I do respect Edmonton and I know they are improving, they are still 0-6 SU in divisional games this season and I look for the Stamps to come out with a chip on their shoulders in this one and roll to a huge win! 10* CALGARY - points

CFL Monday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats + points vs Toronto Argonauts @ 3:30 ET - This is a double revenge spot for Hamilton as they have lost both meetings with Toronto this season. I like the fact the Tiger-Cats are back on track after a win last week and are a big home dog here catching more than a TD as the current line is 7.5 points at the time of this posting. Hamilton will take advantage of an Argonauts secondary dealing with some injuries. As for the Toronto offense, I know they have been rolling overall but their most recent road game saw them score only 7 points. This is a tough match-up against a Ti-Cats team that is better than their record shows. Look for this one to go down to the wire which means getting more than a TD is a huge value here. 10* HAMILTON + points

CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +7.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - Blue Bombers won big at Saskatchewan 45-27 early this season but the yardage was about equal in that one so the final score was deceiving. Now look at the Bombers road games since then. Winnipeg scored 17 points in next road win then lost roadie in OT then beat league-worst Elks at Edmonton, then won by 1 at Calgary. The point is that, with those types of road results, the Blue Bombers are truly over-priced here the way I see it. Note that Winnipeg is also entering this game off a huge win last week versus Montreal while the Riders got to enjoy a nice bye week last week. The Roughriders have won 3 of last 4 homes games since the home loss to Blue Bombers and the Riders only loss in that stretch was by 2 points. A lot of home dog value here! 10* SASKATCHEWAN +7.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play South Carolina Gamecocks (+) points vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7:30 ET in Charlotte, NC - This is a neutral site game and the current dominant line across all sports books as of gameday morning is 2.5 and I am grabbing the dog here. I like the fact the ranked team, North Carolina, is laying such a short number. I also like the way a few of the books I few as sharp are pricing this game. This has me lining up on what I feel is the sharp side which is also heavily based on what I like in terms of the match-up here too of course. The Gamecocks have really responded well under head coach Shane Beamer (yes he is the son of long-time former head coach Frank Beamer). South Carolina is building some continuity here in the program with Beamer and they finished last season very strong and I feel they will carry that momentum right into this season. Their passing attack is a strength now and QB Spencer Rattler is getting more and more comfortable here as he showed late last season. He will lead the way here against a Tar Heels defense that essentially lost their entire secondary from last season so you are talking about new starters here at key positions in the back of the defense. North Carolina had a lot of question marks in the off-season with a lot going on in the transfer portal including all the uncertainty involving the starting QB. Though he eventually decided to stay it says a lot about this program and that it is a bit shaky right now when I look at their coaching and personnel situations. I feel strongly that the Gamecocks are in better shape to hit the ground running early this season. North Carolina should improve as the season goes on but there is a reason this ranked team is hardly favored here in Week 1 and I love the points in this spot. 10* SOUTH CAROLINA

CFL Saturday BC Lions (-) points @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - Both teams off bad losses but if you look at the stats from those games, the Lions were about even statistically while the Als were outgained by a huge margin. Don't let this line, currently BC -3.5 at time of this write-up, fool you. Montreal is heading the wrong way right now and BC is the stronger team right now and more likely to respond big here with a huge win. The Lions are favored by more than a field goal here on the road but it is for a reason. This is the point. Two teams looking to bounce back off a loss but I trust this BC team much more than the Alouettes in this spot. 10* BC Lions

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Louisville Cardinals (-) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7:30 ET in Atlanta, Georgia - Technically the Yellow Jackets have the home field edge here but it is a neutral site game at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. This line was originally around 10 and I was hoping we would see it tick down to an even 7 but it has been stuck at 7.5 across the board at the time of this write-up. I feel that is actually a positive sign for us if you will. The fact is the sharp action would come flying in too hard on a 7 and the books are not willing to go there, at least not yet. I say sharp money because the fact is this Louisville team is too strong for Georgia Tech. Look at statistics from last season and it already shows that overall, the Cardinals were already the stronger team. Then when you look at what has transpired with each team in the off-season and the Cards appear much more poised than the Jackets to hit the ground running with strong play this season. Plummer will be the QB and he is off a strong season at Cal and before that was at Purdue where Cardinals head coach Brohm was as well so there is already familiarity for him here working in this offense. This is a great match and their ground game, with Jordan leading the way, will run all over a GT defense that struggles to stop the run. I know Louisville lost quite a bit from the defensive side of the ball but Georgia Tech has a new offensive coordinator and a new QB to run it with King (previously unimpressive at A & M) under center. The Yellow Jackets will have more growing pains than the Cardinals early this season. 10* LOUISVILLE - points

MLB Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs -105 @ Cleveland Guardians @ 7:10 ET - Glasnow has been pitching great, as per usual. Quantrill is returning from injury and his final rehabilitation start in AAA went well but he was struggling prior to this in his rehab outings. Lets also not forget that his numbers at the major league level were not good this season either. So the starting pitching edge is definitely with the Rays plus they have the overall team edge. Tampa Bay is 47-21 this season against teams with a losing record. The Guardians are 31-34 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, the Rays are 20-6 this season against teams from the AL Central. Remember that there is a huge divisional edge this season between the East and Central. The run line should be no issue here in a blowout road win. 10* TAMPA BAY -1.5 -105

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (- points) vs Florida Gators @ 8 ET - This is a revenge game from last season when Utah lost the game late. However, revenge is certainly not the only factor but it certainly does not hurt either! The real value here is because of Utah QB Cameron Rising being out for this game. The key is that the back-up has experience and will be just fine here plus we have seen a line drop from near double digits to now a 4.5 as of gameday morning. The Utes should roll to a big win here as they have much more in the way of returning experience here than the Gators. Also, last season's meeting was in Florida and now this one is in the thin air of Utah and the altitude edge can be a factor for a team like the Gators that hardly ever has to deal with it. For the Utes it certainly is nothing new. I look for the experience edge, home field factor, revenge factor, and line value to all play a role in this one being an ATS victory for us as a win by at least a TD margin is in the cards for the Utes the way I see it. Keep in mind, this line plummeted right past the key number of 7 so the value added is certainly noticeable! Though Cameron Rising is a strong QB the fact is Bryson Barnes has experience already and has a great team around him with which to work and then the other QB option (also could see some snaps) is a guy with dangerous legs! Nate Johnson is a guy loaded with speed and that makes him tough to defend when he is under center as well. 10* UTAH (- points)

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles Run Line -1.5 -110 vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles Kremer is 12-5 this season while the White Sox Scholtens is 1-6. Also, the Orioles the much better team overall of course and rolled 9-0 yesterday and Scholtens has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Kremer is having a great season and is enjoying a fantastic August after also dominating in July. More of the same here plus a huge bullpen edge. Chicago is 22-51 against teams with a winning record this season. Baltimore has the best record in the AL plus is 19-7 against AL Central teams this year! The Orioles 15 of last 19 wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The White Sox have seen 17 of last 20 losses by at least a 2-run margin. More of the same expected here. 10* BALTIMORE -1.5 -110

MLB Monday 10* Top Play San Diego Padres Run Line -1.5 -110 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 7:45 ET - For those of you that noticed, yes we just faded the downtrodden Cardinals 3 straight days with the much better team, the Phillies. Here we keep the same angle going as we take the Padres over the Cardinals. Note that St Louis is not just losing games, they are getting dominated. Yesterday the Phillies beat them 3-0 but it could have been much worse as Philadelphia outhit the Cards 11 to 2. The Cardinals have now lost 9 of 11 games and have scored just 12 runs in those 9 defeats - an average of 1.3 runs per loss. They are starting Wainwright whom, as you guys know, I have been fading frequently this season with either overs or playing against him. The fact is his career was already declining but when he finally lost long-time batterymate Molina to retirement that really marked the end for Wainwright as well. This season he is now 3-9 with an 8.61 ERA. Conversely, Blake Snell is pitching some of his best baseball of the year right now and, overall is having a huge season. Snell has a 2.73 ERA this season plus he has been simply unreal truly dating all the way back to late-May! Snell has allowed just 16 earned runs in his last 17 starts! That is insane! Making it even more amazing he has allowed just 57 hits in those 17 outings! So about 3 to 4 hits per start and just 1 earned run per start and plus the better team and hotter lineup of the Padres taking advantage of facing the Cardinals here. You don't have to twist my arm here! 10* SAN DIEGO -1.5 -110

NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Texans +2.5 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8 ET - The Texans are the overall younger roster with some key position battles going on. The Saints are a more veteran team and already more established in that regard. Also, Houston just got blasted by 25 points last week while the Saints are off another win and are 2-0 in the preseason. Everything sets up well for the road underdog in this battle to be the more motivated team and I expect some of their key personnel to play a little longer when you look at the Texans and compare to New Orleans. This line was in the 3.5 range and has dropped to a 2.5 and for the books to be willing to move past the key number of 3 you know that they are respecting some of the action the Texans have seen in the betting markets. I expect an outright upset here but we will grab the points just in case. This is the final game of the preseason and there have been plenty of underdog upsets and also the points can prove invaluable when you consider that 12 games already in the preseason have been decided by 2 or less points. Grab the points here in the preseason finale and expect an upset or, at the very least, a game decided by the slimmest of margins. 10* HOUSTON +2.5

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +100 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 1:35 ET - Drew Rom is a rookie hurler who has not been overly impressive at the minor league level and just got crushed in his MLB debut Monday. Now on Sunday he faces a Phillies team that has been tough and is surging while his Cardinals team is currently struggling and now in last place in their division. Philadelphia is on a 12-5 run in home games and the Cardinals have been trending the other direction and have lost 8 of last 10 games. Value spot to back the home team here on the run line which is available at even money. Aaron Nola is a rock solid starter and is expected to get the call for the Phillies here. Nola has been fantastic at home throughout his career and in almost all his home starts this season he has been quite tough. Look for these long-term trends to continue here. Note also that St Louis is 33-46 versus winning teams. The Phillies are 38-25 at home. 17 of Cardinals last 20 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 14 of last 15 Philly wins have by 2 or more runs. No hesitation in laying the run line here given those numbers. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +100 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:15 ET - Dakota Hudson is 5-0 this season and is expected to start for the Cardinals in this one and yet Philadelphia is a -200 favorite on the money line. Must be big mistake, right? No, not at all! First off, about Hudson he actually has a rather pedestrian 3.95 ERA this season and he had a 4.45 ERA last season so is not like this guy is a true dominator. Give Hudson some credit for his record for sure but now he faces a Phillies team that has been tough and is surging while his Cardinals team is currently struggling and now in last place in their division. Philadelphia is on an 11-5 run in home games and the Cardinals have been trending the other direction and have lost 7 of last 9 games. Value spot to back the home team here on the run line which is available at even money. Zack Wheeler is a solid starter and is expected to get the call for the Phillies here. Wheeler has a 2.89 ERA since the All-Star break and has held hitters to a .203 batting average in these 7 starts. St Louis is 33-45 versus winning teams. The Phillies are 37-25 at home. 16 of Cardinals last 19 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 13 of last 14 Philly wins have by 2 or more runs. No hesitation in laying the run line here given those numbers. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5

Rotation #302 Saturday CFB 10* New Mexico State Aggies -7 vs Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - Of course the point spread is, and must, be a factor but lets first talk about some facts in terms of straight-up records. UMass has lost 24 straight road games! The Minutemen have covered just 6 times in their last 23 road games. UMass is again projected to be one of the worst teams in the nation. New Mexico State has won 6 of last 7 games including their bowl game last season. This team is really responding well under head coach Jerry Kill and I also like the fact they are at home for this one and want to avoid the slow start they had out of the gate last season. The Aggies are much better than the Minutemen and I also like the fact this line opened up around double digits but has come down to the TD mark. Laying 7 points here is something I am very comfortable with and hopefully the line will stay no higher than 7. Either way, lay it with this one and it would not surprise me if this game got steamed as the day goes along Saturday so note this line could rise back up. A lot of lines do that in football. They'll fall in the days coming into game day and then start moving back toward where they came from when the sharps start rolling in with bigger bets on gameday. The fact is the Aggies have won each of the last two meetings by double digits and I expect a similar result here. They are the more talented and more cohesive group and they have an altitude edge at home also plus this is a long road trip for a bad UMass team. 10* NEW MEXICO STATE -7

CFL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary +10.5 @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7:30 ET - Revenge is overplayed. Yes, this is a revenge game for the Argos after losing at Calgary a few weeks ago. However, even if the Argonauts get revenge it does not mean it will come via a blowout. The Argos are off a bye week but they probably did not even want it. This bye followed a huge 44-31 win and Toronto would have liked to have had a chance to build off the momentum. As for the Stamps, the 20-7 win over the Argos was no fluke. They outgained Toronto by about 100 yards and the Calgary defense was great in that game. Now the Stampeders have lost B2B games since then including losing by just a single point last week so you know they will be fired up to get back on track here. That may not happen but I also do not see them getting blown out in this game either. Take advantage of an over-reaction on this line and grab the big point with the road dog here. 10* CALGARY +10.5

CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes + points at Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - This line is as high as a 9.5 as of game day morning and I love the big points in this spot. Yes Collaros is back for the Blue Bombers at QB but Fajardo is back for the Alouettes. Also, consider what Evans did at QB in the late comeback win at Ottawa last week. Additionally, the Montreal defense has been solid and though the Bombers getting so much attention for being a hot team, the Als have been really hot too. When these teams met in Montreal earlier this season, Winnipeg won 17 to 3 but the yardage in that game was about equal. To me, given all of the above, this is just too many points to give the Alouettes as they are solid defensively and their offense has a boost with the Evans performance and with Fajardo coming back. 10* MONTREAL + points

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons + points vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 7:30 ET - Currently this line is available as a high as a +5 with the dominant number being +4.5 right now. Simply put, this is a great line value as even a 3 or 4 point loss (both key numbers) would still be a win for Atlanta ATS. Generally speaking, I like fading teams who are off of outright upset wins as an underdog and the Steelers are in that role here. Historically, and Pittsburgh's recent seasons are no exception, teams do not perform well in that role in the preseason. We are getting some extra value here because both of Pittsburgh's wins in this preseason have been by a double digit margin. However, what seems to be ignored here is that the Falcons are allowing an average of only 8 points per game so far in this preseason and Atlanta is undefeated thus far with one win and one tie. No team has allowed fewer points than the Falcons in this preseason plus the Steelers, though undefeated, have allowed twice as many points! I know Pittsburgh has solid depth at QB and this is the final preseason game so depth is important. However, Atlanta also has respectable depth at QB too and I feel the Steelers WR group is very thin on depth too. That said the Falcons absolutely could pull off the upset here and, in my mind, the points are offering a fantastic value here. 10* ATLANTA + points

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +1.5 vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8 ET - The Ravens have won 24 straight preseason games and yet this line is basically a pick'em. This tells me all I need to know here. However, of course we'll give you a little more to chew on with this one! The fact is that neither Lamar Jackson nor Tyler Huntley will see any time at QB in this one for the Ravens. That means Baltimore will only go with their #3 and #4 guys, Josh Johnson and Anthony Brown, in this one. The Ravens barely snuck by the Eagles last week. The Commanders also got a tight win last week but they seem more motivated this season and more cohesive. A lot has changed with this Washington organization recently and this is a different team this season that wants to set a different standard. They have played 2nd fiddle to the Ravens in the Baltimore/DC region for years now. Even though this is only a preseason game, the fact that the Ravens have won 24 in a row actually could give the Commanders a little extra incentive here. They also are going to be giving more playing time to their stronger QB battles than what Baltimore is. Ravens dealing with just a 3/4 battle because they won't risk Jackson this week and because Huntley tweaked something last week so they won't risk him this week either. I don't believe in trap lines per se but I do believe in further analytics when a line looks a little funny to the masses. That is the case here and, in this case, the 24-game winning streak is primed to end! We'll grab the +1.5 just in case it is another 1-point win for the Ravens but look for an outright win for the home team in this one. 10* WASHINGTON +1.5

Sunday MLB 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -135 @ Washington Nationals @ 7:10 ET (game played in Williamsport, PA) - Not really a home game for the Nationals as this one being played in PA and the location favors the Phillies really. In any event, Philadelphia is the much stronger team and off a huge win yesterday. Williams continues to give up a lot of homers for Washington and is struggling bad. Conversely, the Phillies Wheeler has been fantastic since the All-Star break and this long-time solid veteran is holding hitters below a .200 batting average since then. He dominates again here and Williams gets lit up and the Phillies should win big again in this one. Keep in mind, the Phillies bullpen is ranked 2nd in the National League while the Nationals bullpen is ranked dead last in the National League for ERA so far this season. Washington is 12 games under .500 versus teams with a winning record this season while Philadelphia is 10 games over .500 versus teams with a losing record this season. The Nats are a horrific 12-23 in divisional games this season. The Nationals are also 13 games under .500 in night games this season. 45 of 67 Phillies wins have been by a multi-run margin this season and 50 of 68 Nationals losses have been by 2 or more runs this season. More of the same here! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -135

CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +10.5 vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - I am aware of the injury situations here. Here are the keys I like in this match-up. The Roughriders off an ugly loss and the Lions are off a blowout win. When these teams met earlier this season at BC, the Riders outgained the Lions but lost the game by a 10 point margin. Additionally, Saskatchewan rarely gets blown out at home and the only time they did this season, versus Winnipeg, they actually outgained the Blue Bombers. So the point is that we have a lot of line value here with a big dog that has proven they can compete with anyone this season yet they have some deceiving final scores on their resume. That said, the additional value from a situational perspective is what has me betting this big home dog with confidence and yes I know that QB Fine is out for this one but just watch what happens in this game ladies and gentlemen! 10* SASKATCHEWAN +10.5

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings +2.5 vs Tennessee Titans @ 8 ET - The Titans gave up 8 sacks last week. Yes, EIGHT! Keep in mind this was to a Bears team that finished DEAD LAST in the NFL last year for sacks! In other words, this is absolutely concerning. Now, I know this was the back-ups that allowed all that damage but it is back-ups that usually decide preseason games. I think Tennessee is in trouble here on the road. The Vikings are angry off a double digit loss and they have performed well in the past in the preseason when they enter a game off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points. Minnesota will be ready here. Also, they are at home and they are catching a few points. I like the fact the Vikings blew a 10 point lead last week too. That insures proper focus here even though this is only a preseason game. Certainly both teams have some things to fix entering this game off losses last week but some things are more fixable than others. The back-up play for the players in the trenches in Tennessee leaves a lot to be desired and won't be fixed in one week. The Vikings have a lot of talent and depth at the WR position and I look for the Vikes to open things up a bit on offense as this game goes on and they will get the win through the aerial attack. I will grab the 2.5 points as added insurance in case they fall just short. 10* MINNESOTA +2.5

CFL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +4.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 9 ET - Bombers QB Collaros is dealing with a neck injury. If he plays he is not 100% and he may not even play here. That makes this a tough road game for Winnipeg. Even with the line having been adjusted down some it is still not enough. This line has been kept high because the Blue Bombers are 7-2 this season and 5-1 in the division and Calgary is just 1-3 at home and 1-4 in divisional games this season. Given numbers like that, it is not a surprise that many are not backing the Stampeders here...but, we will! The Stamps should roll at home here. They are hungry after getting obliterated on the road at BC last week and I expect a huge effort from them here this week now that they are back in Alberta. 10* CALGARY +4.5

NFL Friday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 @ Atlanta Falcons @ 7:30 ET - There has been an over-reaction here to the fact Joe Burrow is out for the Bengals and the fact the Falcons will be playing two quarterbacks who are their top two guys and who did not play last week. The key here is that Cincinnati will be mostly playing two quarterbacks that did play last week. Don't be surprised if having already worked out the rust benefits the Bengals QB situation here. Don't be surprised if the Cincy defense is much better this week after they got ram-rodded last week. Note also that the Falcons won 19 to 3 last week but they were outgained by about 100 yards in that game and they punted 5 times. Their opponent actually punted only 2 times in the game but they were done in by turnovers and being stopped on downs a couple times too. So the point is that Cincy is not nearly as bad as the final scored showed last week just like Atlanta is not nearly as good as the final score showed last week. Also, the Bengals may play even better here knowing that an injury to Burrow is NOT being risked. This is just too many points for this particularly preseason match-up. Don't be surprised if we see an outright upset here or a Bengals loss by 4 or less points. In recent seasons, the Falcons have a poor ATS record as a home favorite while the Bengals have been solid as a road dog. This is preseason ATS stuff I am talking about and I look for those trends to continue here. Give me the big points. 10* CINCINNATI +6.5

CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +5.5 @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7:30 ET - The Elks are 0-9 this season but opened up as 4.5 dogs in this one on the road. If you consider most teams are given about a 3 point edge in football when at home that means the opening line on this game had it priced in a way that it would imply the teams are about equal on a neutral field. All of that and yet Edmonton is 0-9 this season...exactly! Do not let this line fool you. Was an open invitation to take the Ti-Cats and, sure enough, people are doing just that. This line has risen. I am taking the other side and fading the move as per usual. Note that Hamilton is a bit banged up in the trenches and I also like the fact the Elks had the Blue Bombers beat last week until a late turn of events there after a key big play against them turned the tide. I feel this will have Edmonton even more hell-bent and determined on getting into the win column this week finally. Even if they do fall short of an outright win, look for the points to be enough for the all-important cover. 10* EDMONTON +5.5

NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +3.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 7:30 ET - The Browns have performed well as a road dog in preseason action and also they have performed well as an underdog when they are facing a team that is below .500 in preseason action. That angle fits here as well as the Eagles are off a 1-point loss last week. I also like the fact that Cleveland is off a loss entering this one. The Browns off a 2-point loss and Philly off a 1-point loss and I am expecting an upset here but like the value of having the points on our side given numbers like this. In case we see another tight finish involving each of these teams, the points could prove very valuable. The Browns won the yardage battle by about 150 yards in the HOF Game and then again by about 100 yards in last week's loss to the Commanders. The point is that this is an underdog that has played quite well thus far in the preseason and the value of getting a FG plus the hook is something I will not pass up on here. 10* CLEVELAND +3.5

CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +10 @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - The Argos are off their first loss of the season last week so everyone will expect them to bounce right back here. However, QB Kelly may not be 100% even though he is expected to play here. Also, Toronto was off a very lucky win the week before their loss last week. The point is that this has been coming for awhile and the Argonauts drop-off should continue this week. I am not saying they won't bounce back and manage to get a win here but I am saying that it would be a hard-fought win if they do get it. I certainly am not expecting it would be decided by double digits! Ottawa's average point differential on the season is a 1 point loss. The Redblacks have played 8 games and their point differential is -8 points. Ottawa has only one loss this season by more than 8 points and that was a defeat by only an 11-point margin! That is why I feel we have such strong line value here. This is a divisional match-up and the Redblacks will be battling hard after a tight 2-point loss last week. 10* OTTAWA +10

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +5 or +5.5 @ Baltimore Ravens @ 7 ET - Everyone knows the Ravens have been incredible in preseason for many years now. Trust me, everyone means the odds makers too! That said, this line opened up with Baltimore a FG favorite at home. That is totally an enticement to take the Ravens as the implication is that the teams are equal - under preseason standards - and the home team is merely getting their full 3 points as per usual. That said, is this line some massive mistake? Well, long-time followers know how I feel about perceived "mistakes" by the odds makers. That said, the fact the line is now up to a solid 5 and as high as a 5.5 as of gameday morning absolutely has me fading the masses and I am happy to have the additional line value the markets have given us compared to what the odds makers said the line should be. This play is going against the grain per se but, historically, I love plays like this one!  10* PHILADELPHIA +5.5 OR +5

CFL Friday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +5.5 @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - This is a ton of line value on the Riders. 5 of their 8 games this season have been decided by a margin of 4 or less points. Those 5 games had an average margin of just 2.4 points! Also, one of their few blowout losses was 2 weeks ago against Toronto but they deserved better as they dominated the Argonauts statistically in that one. We continue to use the flawed market perception about Saskatchewan to our advantage. I used the Riders last week successfully against Ottawa and will now use them again against another non-divisional foe. Remember that week prior to beating the Redblacks they really did statistically dominate another non-divisional foe when they had strong numbers against the Argos. Montreal is a respectable team but they are nothing special and this is just too many points for them to be laying here. The Alouettes are off a divisional win and have another divisional game on deck and I could see the Als being a little flat here. Give me the points! 10* SASKATCHEWAN +5.5

NFLX Friday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +3 @ Cleveland Browns @ 7:30 ET - Cleveland won the HOF Game versus the Jets and dominated the game statistically. The fact they are at home again (prior game in nearby Canton, OH) and have a game under their belt would seem to favor the Browns here. However, teams actually tend to NOT perform well when off an outright upset win as an underdog and this includes in preseason action and this trend also includes specifically the Browns. That said, plus considering the fact Cleveland has not performed well in recent seasons in pre-season in the home favorite role has me siding with the Commanders here. This is one of those ugly dog spots where most will be lining up with the home favorite yet, historically, it is a great spot to grab the road dog. 10* WASHINGTON

CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +12 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 9 ET - So this is a double perfect spot but I am not playing it in the way you think I would! Edmonton is 0-8 this season! Also, the Elks were 0-9 in home games this season! That means they have no chance of winning this game, right? Well, actually those are SU trends but I still feel strongly that there is a possibility of an outright upset here but most definitely I feel confident about a big dog cover. This is just too many points and the hapless Elks made some changes during the bye week and will look to hit the reset button here at home and get things going back the right direction. Maybe Winnipeg does just enough for the SU win here but I do not see some big road blowout here. The fact is the Blue Bombers just knocked off BC in a huge game and they could be flat here. Winnipeg also has a tougher game at Calgary on deck. They could look right past an Edmonton team that is winless plus just lost to that same BC team 27-0 in Alberta the week before their bye week! Don't be surprised if the Elks bring a much different effort here and this is a great spot for a tight game decided by just a single score margin the way I see it! 10* EDMONTON +12

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -120 vs Washington Nationals @ 6:40 ET - The Nationals, despite winning Game 2 of the DH Tuesday, are now 11-21 in divisional games and 25-40 in night games this season after getting hammered (and no-hit!) in a 7-0 loss yesterday. The Phillies had won 5 of 6 at home before that loss Tuesday! After yesterday's 7-0 win, each of their last 7 wins have been by at least a 2-run margin. This should be another blowout home win for the Phillies with Aaron Nola having been strong in starts overall at Citizens Bank Park throughout his career and with Patrick Corbin getting consistently rocked again this season. 10* Philadelphia -1.5

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +115 vs Washington Nationals @ 6:40 ET - Lorenzen was fantastic in his first start for the Phillies. Now Philadelphia is looking to respond after winning Game 1 yesterday but losing Game 2 of the double-header. Philly is strong when off a home loss and the Nationals have been nothing special this season. Also, Gore had a 6.64 ERA last month in July and now faces a Phillies team that has hit him hard already this season. Lorenzen is coming off a stellar debut for the Phillies plus he went 3-1 with a 1.14 ERA last month for the Tigers! The Nationals, despite winning Game 2 of the DH yesterday, are 11-20 in divisional games and 25-39 in night games this season. The Phillies had won 5 of 6 at home before that loss yesterday and each of their last 6 wins have been by at least a 2-run margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +115

CFL Sunday Saskatchewan Roughriders +2.5 vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - Remember when we used Calgary over Toronto Friday and got a very easy win? Part of the analytics there including the Argonauts getting statistically dominated by a 426 to 200 count in yardage by these Roughriders last week! Indeed, Saskatchewan deserved much better than a 31-13 loss last week. Now, just like how the Argos were overvalued Friday, the Riders are likewise undervalued Sunday. As for Ottawa, they lost by only 4 points last week but they were outgained by about 100 yards and that was against a Hamilton team that is struggling. Now the Redblacks are on the road and last week statistically the Roughriders were +200 and the RedBlacks were -100 and you can see why the home dog should prove very dangerous here. SASKATCHEWAN +2.5

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -105 vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:35 ET - The Royals are so bad on the road. Their recent winning streak was almost entirely filled with home games. Now they are back on the road and after winning the first game of this series they then lost the 2nd game as expected. They send Greinke to the mound for this one and he is 1-11 this season. Not only does he have an 0-7 record in road games this season, the Royals have won only 1 of his road start this entire season. In his last 8 road start Kansas City is 0-8. Look for that streak to reach 9 in a row right here! Taijuan Walker is 5-1 with a 2.80 ERA at home this season. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. The Phillies are the much better team, at home, and with the better bullpen, and the better starting pitcher. Most of the KC losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Look for this one to be as well as the Royals drop to 0-9 in Greinke's last 9 road starts! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -105

CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +3 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - We get line value here because Hamilton QB Bo Levi-Mitchell is out again with injury. The fact is they have an adequate back-up option at quarterback plus they got good production out of their wide receivers last week. Also, their secondary looked much better than the secondary of the Alouettes last week which, by the way, is dealing with injury issues too. In terms of pass protection, the Ti-Cats also rate an edge over the Als. Factoring all this in plus the home field edge and the revenge factor, this looks like a great spot to back the Tiger-Cats. Note that Montreal crushed them here at Hamilton earlier this season so payback is on their minds here. This is a key game in the East Division race and I feel the home team is vastly under-valued here because of the Mitchell injury. Their defense will come to play just as I predicted the Stampeders defense would show up at home against the undefeated Argonauts last night and they did just that in the 20-7 win. This is truly another great home dog situation. 10* HAMILTON +3

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -115 vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:05 ET - Sanchez has a 2.66 ERA this season. Marsh has a 6.75 ERA this season. I know the Royals are hot and snuck out another win yesterday. But 6 of their 7 victories in their current 7-game winning streak came at out. They will not win on the road again here and most of their losses this season have been by at least 2 runs. Marsh is 0-5 this season and I know Sanchez is also winless this season. However, Sanchez has deserved much better and he should help the Phillies bounce back strong here. Regardless of the starting pitching, in fact, this one will be all Philly as I challenge KC to win B2B road games. I just do not see that happening and the home team rolls here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -115

CFL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +8.5/9/9.5 vs Toronto Argonauts @ 9 ET - This is just too many points. I know Toronto is undefeated this season and they are the defending champs. Of course this also means they have a target on their backs right now. The Stampeders are still seeking their first home win of the season. When you consider those factors you have a great set up for a monumental upset here. Even if we don't get that huge upset I look for the points to be enough for the cover here as I just do not see the Argonauts winning this game by more than a 1-score margin on the road. Calgary has played in only 2 games this season that resulted in the Stampeders losing by a margin of more than 7 points and one of those was way back in Week One! Also, the Argos were dominated statistically by Saskatchewan last week and that game was at Toronto. The Riders outgained them by a 2 to 1 ratio. We have great line value here as a result and the Stamps are going to have their ears pinned back for this one! 10* CALGARY + points

MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -110 vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - Yes, the Royals have won 6 straight. However, all those wins were at home. Philadelphia is a huge favorite here with good reason and, of course, we will not lay 2 to 1 odds on the Phillies here. Where the line value is, however, is that on the run line the Phillies are available in a pick'em price range of -110. That will get us involved here! Nola, throughout his career, has been known for pitching very well in Philly. As for Lyles, he is 2-12 this season and has a 6.15 ERA on the year. The Royals are 14-39 on the road this season and 17-49 against teams with a winning record! The Phillies are winners in 6 of last 9 overall and 6 of last 9 at home also. Additionally, the Royals 75 losses have included 62 by at least a 2-run margin. Look for the Phillies to roll big here at home. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -110

CFL Thursday 10* Top Play BC Lions +6 @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - On one hand, this is a revenge game for Blue Bombers after losing badly to the Lions earlier this season. However, in last year's post-season, BC lost at Winnipeg and they have not forgotten this. Winnipeg ended up going to the Grey Cup as a result of winning that game and they hosted it because they won the West Division. Right now, the Lions are 1 game in front of the Bombers for 1st place in the West. This is a huge game as a result and BC is dead set on winning the division this season. The year has a long way to go yet but opening up an early 2-game lead would be huge for the Lions. They are a perfect 5-0 in the division this season and I like the way Dane Evans played last week at QB as BC piled up a lot of offense. Granted, it was at Edmonton, but this Lions team is playing very well this season and has been ultra strong this year on the defensive side of the ball. That said, I like the generous points being offered here and would not be surprised if we see an outright upset and the Lions improving to 6-0 SU in divisional games this season. We'll grab the points as added insurance. 10* BC Lions +6

CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +8 vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - With Vernon Adams expected to miss this game as he still deals with an injury, the Lions are going with Dane Evans at QB as the starter and Dominique Davis as the back-up. Evans is coming off a mediocre season in which he had as many interceptions as touchdowns and that is why he was not the starter in the first place. Making this match-up a little tougher for him is that WR Dominique Rhymes is expected to miss this game and that is one less target for Evans. Also, BC is facing a desperate home dog here as the Elks are still seeking their first win of the new season. That makes things even tougher for the traveling Lions here and the Elks have been competitive in a number of their losses this season and that should be the case again here. Upset alert as the Elks bring an A game effort here and, if they fall short of the outright win, look for this game to be decided by just a one score margin as the Elks are so hungry for a home win and will be the more amped up team here. BC could overlook them and who could blame them for this really? That makes them a very dangerous dog here. 10* EDMONTON +8

CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +2 @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7:30 ET - Ottawa is off B2B wins but is on short rest here compared to Hamilton. Also the Redblacks game last week was out west at Calgary while the Ti-Cats were at home for their game. Definite scheduling edge for the Tiger-Cats plus Ottawa is 0-2 in divisional games so far this season. The Redblacks want revenge here for the loss at Hamilton a few weeks ago but the road team catching them at the perfect time to get another win over their East Division foes. Ottawa is now 3-9 in divisional games the past two seasons combined and, lets not forget they went 0-9 at home last season. 10* HAMILTON +2

CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughridgers +10 @ BC Lions @ 7 ET - As lines continue to rise there will be big dog value to latch onto quite frequently. I know it did not work out last night with Hamilton falling just short of the cover but those yardage starts were nearly equal in that game. Also, this followed a big dog cover with Edmonton at Winnipeg Thursday. Now here is another case where a favorite is getting into the over-valued territory in my assessment. BC is a strong club but the yardage was nearly equal to their opponents in their most recent win and that followed a Lions loss in which they allowed 45 points. So, the point is, this BC team continues to be overvalued and I like the fact that Riders QB Mason Fine - very successful at North Texas in college football - got some valuable CFL experience last year. He will be ready to go again here with QB Trevor Harris having gotten hurt and having to undergo surgery. Fine was 6 of 8 with two touchdown passes in last week's 2-point loss to Calgary. Speaking of the two point margin, the Roughriders have been known for tight games this season. This should be another one. 5 games for Riders so far and 4 were decided by an average margin of just 2.5 points! Happy to grab the big points here. 10* SASKATCHEWAN +10

CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +9.5 @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7:30 ET - Hamilton lost the first meeting 32-14 but the Tiger-Cats actually outgained the Argonauts in that one and the game was at Toronto! Yes, I am aware of the QB situation for the Ti-Cats here but I am confident that Taylor Powell, former Eastern Michigan QB, is going to give them a strong performance here. Powell himself is confident and this is still a talented Hamilton club that is capable of the upset here. The Argos are 4-0 this season but coming off a huge win over Montreal last week. Even if the Ti-Cats fall short, look for the points to prove to be too much here in this one. Grab the generous point spread offered in this one and look for a tight game here. 10* HAMILTON +9.5

CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +15 @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers at 8:30 ET - A lot of line value here the way I see it. Yes, Edmonton is 0-6 on the season but they have often been very competitive. Also, their defense has actually allowed a total of only FOUR touchdowns in THREE road games this season! I think the Elks remain hungry and will put forth another competitive effort on the road here as they look to pull off the shocker. Winnipeg is a quality team but they just allowed that huge Redblacks comeback against them from a huge deficit in Ottawa. The point is that the Blue Bombers will be angry and looking to bounce back here but their defense also has proven susceptible. Winnipeg should hang on for the win here but the Blue Bombers defense will again be susceptible to late points. That means a backdoor cover, if even needed, is also a distinct possibility here given that this line is above the two TD mark. Grab the big points. 10* EDMONTON +15

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -105 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 6:40 ET - Teheran struggling badly for the Brewers in recent starts. Nola, for the Phillies, has been showing a lot of outings lately in which he looks like "vintage Nola" and his dominating stuff should keep Milwaukee off balance here. The Phillies certainly have the more potent lineup plus they are the hotter team plus they have the home field edge. Yes each team enters this one on a winning streak but the Brewers 18-14 last 32 games while the Phillies are 26-10 last 36 games. That coupled with the mound edge makes the Phillies the play here. Note that 35 of 42 Brewers losses have been by 2+ runs this season and that is an 83% rate! 9 of last 11 Phillies wins have been by 2+ runs and that is an 82% rate. Phillies win in a home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -105

CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +1.5 @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7 ET - Going very short on CFL write-ups today. The Stamps are on the road and 1-3 this season and facing a Riders team that is 3-1 this season and known for playing tough at home. All that and yet this line is as low as a pick'em in some spots. The point is that this line is set this way for a reason so don't let the number scare you away. Saskatchewan barely snuck by Calgary in the first meeting this season so this is a payback revenge spot. Also the Roughriders other two wins were against Edmonton and the Elks are now 0-6 on the season! So Saskatchewan is 3-1 this season but absolutely over-rated and the Stampeders other two losses this season were to BC and Winnipeg and those two teams are each 4-1 on the season now. Undervalued road team here will surprise many.  10* CALGARY +1.5

CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +10 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - Going very short on CFL write-ups today. This is just too many points. Going to take this home team and challenge the huge road favorite to win by double digits away from home. Just can not see that happening here and note that Ottawa has only 1 loss by more than 8 points in its 4 games this season and that was a loss by just 11 points. The Redblacks defense has been respectable and their offense will step up at home here too. 10* OTTAWA +10

CFL Friday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts -5.5 @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - Huge scheduling edge for the Argonauts as they are off a bye week after thrashing BC two weeks ago. That is the same Lions team that the Alouettes just visited last week and got thrashed by them in Vancouver. That performance for each team against BC shows you the difference between these teams. Also, the Als now have the difficulty of having just had a cross country trip for their game last week and it was on Sunday. Montreal did not even practice Monday or Tuesday after that game was over 2,000 miles away. The Argos, having been off last week, and having faced the Lions at home in Toronto the week before, have a large scheduling edge here. Also, they are undefeated this season and are the defending champs. We saw last night, with Edmonton's loss, that this seems to be a continuation this season of a pattern in which the zig-zag theory is just not working. Good teams rolling and bad teams struggling week after week. Hamilton and Ottawa entered this week 1-3 on the season and those are the only two teams that the Als have beaten. When they have stepped up in class they have lost every game and this looks like another loss and I see the Argos improving to 4-0 on the season with a dominating road win. 10* TORONTO -5.5

CFL Thursday Edmonton Elks +1.5 vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 9 ET - The Elks were a 2.5 dog and are actually moving close to as low as a pick'em in some spots. Consider that fact plus the fact that Edmonton is 0-5 this season with their overall record plus went 0-9 at home last season. In other words, how is it possible that this line is almost a pick'em? Exactly! But note that Hamilton is off their first win of the season. This is a tough spot for the Tiger-Cats the way I see it. They finally won a game plus they are on short rest here. Hamilton played on Saturday last week while the Elks played on Thursday. Not only does that give the hosts the rest edge here, also note that they lost last week's game by a single points. The home team is going to be very determined this week to finally get into the win column after coming so close last week and their defense has been playing better. EDMONTON +1.5

MLB Saturday New York Mets +1.5 -135 @ San Diego Padres @ 10:10 ET - This Padres team is just not that good. They came into the season with high expectations but look at their batting order. They of course have that potent "heart of the order" but they are weak elsewhere and particularly 6 through 9 spots. The Mets lineup not as strong in the middle but is much more complete in terms of respectable sticks through the entirety of the batting order. As for the pitchers here, Snell is the big name guy but he allowed 11 baserunners in 5 innings in his most recent start and was very fortunate to come out of it unscathed. He also got rocked by the Mets earlier this season and I would not be surprised to see that again here against Snell. As for Peterson, the southpaw has struggled this season and got demoted. But even when struggling earlier this season he handcuffed these Padres in his only start against them. The southpaw also has been better since his demotion and has allowed just 1 earned run in 10 innings. This is a lot of line value here with the run line available at a respectable price on the Mets here. The Padres have lost 8 of 12 games and the Mets won in extra innings to carry momentum from that into this one plus they already had momentum from what is now a 6-game winning streak! Also, in last 13 games, Mets only have 1 loss by more than 1 run and that is why I am riding the exceptional value with this run line here. NEW YORK METS +1.5 -135

MLB Monday San Diego Padres -1.5 +110 vs Los Angeles Angels @ 9:40 ET - Snell has been throwing very well for the Padres. He is coming off a fantastic June and dating back to May as well he has allowed only 4 earned runs in his last 7 starts. Conversely, Barria has been hit hard in each of his last two starts. The Angels are 8-15 against left-handed starters this season. The Padres certainly have not been great this season but Los Angeles, prior to a win Sunday, had lost 8 of 11 games. The Padres have been struggling but have won 9 of last 16 home games and 30 of 41 Angels losses by at least 2 runs this season. 33 of 38 San Diego wins have been by 2+ runs this season. That said, if you like the Padres to win here, you can bet they have strong odds at a big win as well and that means I have no hesitation in grabbing the plus money run line price here. SAN DIEGO -1.5 +110

Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 22 Gimnasia La Plata +0.5 goals -110 @ Newell's Old Boys @ 7 ET - I know Newell's Old Boys have the better overall record on the season and have been strong at home while Gimnasia La Plata has been weaker on the road. However, there is value with the +0.5 goals here as it turns a draw into a winning bet and note that Newell's has only 3 wins in last 13 matches in Argentine Primera Division action. Gimnasia has only 2 losses in last 9 matches in Argentine Primera Division action. So, as you can see, the odds based on recent trending over quite a long stretch in league action certainly favors the underdog here. I like that value and will not hesitate to get involved here as the underdog also has delivered a clean sheet in 5 of last 7 matches. Of course if they do that again here we can't lose but, either way, I like this situation for the underdog. Gimnasia La Plata +0.5 goals -110

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -125 vs Washington Nationals @ 1:35 ET - Phillies had been hot but then entered Saturday off a surprising 2-1 loss to the Nationals Friday. Sure enough they bounced right back with a 19-4 yesterday. Philadelphia has Suarez expected to start here and the Phillies left-hander has been great over his last 6 starts with only 5 earned runs allowed in 40 innings of work for a 1.13 ERA!  Suarez is in top form!  As for the Nationals, Trevor Williams has been hit at a .304 clip on the road this season and he is coming off a tough June.  Williams has been roughed up in 5 of his last 6 starts!   The Phillies have won 19 of 25 games. They will build off yesterday's 19-4 win and keep on rolling today.  The better team at home and note that the Nationals have gone 12-31 this season against teams with a winning record.  The Phillies have gone 25-11 this season against teams with a losing record.  Mismatch!  10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -125

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 +100 vs Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - Phillies had been hot but are off a surprising 2-1 loss to the Nationals yesterday. They should bounce right back here. Philadelphia has Wheeler expected to go here and he is 5-1 with a 3.05 ERA in day games this season. He is known for pitching very well at Citizens Bank Park as well and loves pitching in Philly. As for the Nationals, Gore is 1-5 the last two months. Also his month-by-month ERA has gone from a 3.00 to a 4.06 to a 4.55 ERA in June. Additionally, Washington has never won 4 games in a row this season. They now enter this game on a 3-game winning streak. In other words, fading the Nats here is putting yourself in a never-lost situation for 2023 involving the Nationals. In fact, Washington is 2-10 last 12 times when entering a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. The Phillies entered yesterday's game 18-5 last 23 games. They will bounce right back here in a big way. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +100

MLB Tuesday Texas Rangers Run Line -1.5 +100 vs Detroit Tigers @ 8:05 ET - When the Tigers are entering a road game off a win they have gone 1-6 the last 7 times that situation has occurred this season. Detroit got the big 7-2 upset win yesterday and handed us a loss right here in this spot on the run line but I will come right back with the same thing today. As you might expect with a bad team like Detroit, they don't fare well when off big wins. In fact, the last 4 times they were off a win by a margin of 5 or more runs, they have gone 0-4 and they lost those 4 games by a 27-6 combined score. So this is a great play against situation that is 100% PERFECT since mid-May. As for the Rangers, they are 7-1 this season when off a loss by a margin of 5 or more runs! That includes PERFECT 2-0 when at home and off a big margin loss of 5 or more runs. That is the case here so we are working with double perfect edges and have the better team at home. Rangers are 27-11 this season against teams with a losing record this season. Detroit is 15-29 against teams with a winning record this season. TEXAS -1.5 +100

MLB Monday Texas Rangers Run Line -1.5 -105 vs Detroit Tigers @ 8:05 ET - This is a battle of southpaws and the Tigers are just 5-10 versus lefties this season and the Rangers are 14-8 versus lefties. Also, the Rangers are 27-10 against teams with a losing record this season plus they are 24-13 at home. The Tigers are 15-22 on the road and 14-29 against teams with a winning record this season. Texas is 5-2 this season when they enter this game off exactly 2 straight losses. In other words, they have had only 2 losing streaks reach the 3 or more mark this season. Heaney holding hitters to a .230 batting average this season and held them to .214 last season. Boyd has a 5.37 ERA this season and the Rangers have the situational edge and pitching edge and overall team edge. TEXAS -1.5 -105

CFL Sunday Edmonton Elks +6.5 vs Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - Great spot for an underdog win here. An outright win here would not surprise me in the least while at least a home dog cover should be the minimum result here. Toronto is 1-0 on the season but they played a Hamilton team that has been a disaster so far and absolutely the worst team in the league thus far. The Tiger-Cats are now 0-3 on the season and have allowed an average of 37 points per game! The Elks, though 0-2 on the season, have allowed only 19.5 ppg this season. Edmonton is at home and off a shutout loss on the road which is certainly rare. But the two teams they have faced this season are a combined 5-1 on the season. I think the Elks are improved this season even though the results have not yet shown that and I expect them to come up big here on Sunday at home. It is just one of those great contrarian spots I love where you have a unique situation. The Elks are on a long home losing streak and hosting the defending champs yet the champion Argonauts are laying less than a TD. The betting masses likely fooled on this one and will grab the Argos but the ugly home dog should prove to be the play here. EDMONTON +6.5

CFL Thursday BC Lions +6 @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - BC and Winnipeg both undefeated this season and I like the fact that the Lions defense has been so strong. Additionally, they have revenge from losing to the Blue Bombers last season in the semi-finals of the post-season. BC is out for revenge here and Winnipeg has been strong but also faced a Hamilton team that is now 0-2 on the season and, while both teams faced Edmonton (0-2 this season), at least the Lions have a win over Calgary and the Stampeders are 1-1 this season. The point is that, while the Blue Bombers are still a solid team, they are a little over-valued here. This is a big number considering the situation and the hot start to the season for BC. Also, Winnipeg was on the road last week while Lions were at home. BC +6

CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats -2 @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - This has been a very strange start to this CFL season. Usually the odds makers have it right when it comes to setting win totals before a season starts. So far this season has played out in very unusual fashion as we come to the final game of week 2. Even though there were big changes for many teams heading into this season, it is as if last season never ended! Not kidding. Edmonton and Ottawa supposed to be vastly improved yet they are both 0-2 on the season and both suffered double digit losses this week. Winnipeg was supposed to take a step back and BC was expected to have some issues (adjustment time) with the QB (and other personnel) changes yet both those clubs are 2-0 on the season and off blowout wins. Montreal is 1-0 in the east already after being expected to struggle out of the gate. Now you have defending Grey Cup champions Toronto in their season opener at home and an underdog to a Hamilton team off an ugly loss at Winnipeg week 1. Why are the Argonauts and underdog here? Exactly! Well, if the odds makers finally get one right and we finally see a preseason fade actually end up fading in an early-season game, the Argos are going to lose this one. There is a reason this game is priced this way and the Tiger-Cats are a high-quality team that will be ready to respond in this rivalry match-up after last week's embarrassing loss. 10* HAMILTON -2

Rotation #235660: Nations League | Final Sunday Croatia Goal Line +0.5 goals -120 vs Spain @ 2:45 ET - Of course Spain is favored for a reason here and they have the long-term reputation and have more resources being a bigger nation. However, this Croatia team is tactical and clinical and will prove very tough to beat. I am expecting either an upset here or for this match to be pushed past the stoppage time mark and end up a draw for grading purposes which of course would mean a win here for goal line betting purposes no matter who prevails after that point. This Croatia club has been very tough to beat and has only lost twice in last 25 matches! Spain has only 7 wins last 14 matches and just 14 victories in last 25. Remember a draw here after the normal added stoppage time would mean a win for us. Given the above numbers and the current form of the underdogs here, we have solid value with the goal line here. CROATIA +0.5 goals -120

CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +7 @ BC Lions @ 7 ET - This is a great spot to face BC. The Lions are off a win against Calgary last week and have a huge game against Winnipeg on deck. Last season BC and the Stampeders and the Blue Bombers finished with a combined 39-15 regular season record. This is considered the Big 3 in the west while Saskatchewan and Edmonton finished a combined 10-26 last season. That said, the Lions could overlook the Elks here and that could be dangerous. Only a goal line stand from the Roughriders prevented Edmonton from notching a win in Week 1. This Elks team is improved and ready to compete this season. I am not saying they win this game outright but that certainly would not shock me. I feel strongly that the Lions are going to be in a real battle here just to win this game let alone cover the spread. The Elks were 4-5 SU on the road last season and the Lions get caught in a sandwich spot here in terms of the scheduling. Keep in mind, BC's game at Winnipeg is coming up Thursday while Edmonton does not play again until Sunday and that is a non-conference home game for the Elks.  10* EDMONTON +7

CFL Friday Saskatchewan Roughriders +7 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 9 ET - We get line value here because Riders QB Trevor Harris is listed as questionable for his game. Even if he does not go I would expect Mason Fine to get the start here. He has some CFL experience already and looked solid in this preseason. At North Texas in College Football, Fine had 85 TD passes in his final 3 seasons and had a combined ratio of 54 to 12 over his last two seasons there as his TD to INT ratio was fantastic. I like the fact that the Roughriders were the much better team defensively in their week one win. They held a improved Edmonton team to just 13 points and had a big late-game goal-line stand for the win. Though the Blue Bombers have been so strong in recent seasons, I like the fact that they got the win last week. That was a big game against a Hamilton club that they have faced in 2 of the last 3 Grey Cups. Big home win for Winnipeg and that could leave them a little flat here on the road and this is a tough venue to play at. After Blue Bombers got the big home win in Week 1 plus now having another big home game on deck with BC, don't be surprised if Winnipeg struggles just to win this game let alone cover the big spread. SASKATCHEWAN +7

CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +6.5 vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7:30 ET - Like the home dog here. First off, coming into this season, the projected win total for Calgary was 9.5 after winning 12 games last season while Ottawa's projected win total was 7.5 after winning just 4 games last season. Don't let the week 1 loss to Montreal completely take you off the Redblacks here. The fact is Ottawa was strong defensively, much stronger than the Stampeders, and I look for Calgary to be in a war to win this road game - let alone to cover the spread. We are catching 6.5 points here with a live home dog that allowed about 200 yards less than the Stamps last week. Also, still looking for a home win after not getting one all season last year, I know Ottawa is going to be very hungry here. The Redblacks are stronger in the trenches this season and on defense and, even still without new acquisition at QB (Jeremiah Masoli), they are still the live dog here at home. The home opener for Redblacks after going 0-9 here last season, this one means something extra to say the least! Stamps still a solid team but they have taken a step back this year and gave up a ton of yardage last week. More of the same here. 10* OTTAWA +6.5

Rotation #235655: Nations League Semi-Finals Thursday 10* Top Play Italy Goal Line +0.5 goals -140 vs Spain @ 2:45 ET - Spain only has 1 win last 5 matches and in the 4 non-victories they have scored an average of only 0.5 goals! I like having the 1/2 goal on our side with Italy here. They will be tough to beat and I would not be surprised to see this one finish as a draw after stoppage time. Look for it to be decided in added extra time like yesterday's Croatia / Netherlands battle. Italy has just 3 losses last 10 matches and I like the cohesiveness of their group and this Spain roster heading into this one is much different than the one that ousted Italy in the 2021 semi-finals. Payback time. Italy is the big dog but I see them being tough to beat here and will gladly grab the 1/2 a goal here as the value play. 10* ITALY +0.5 -140

MLB Wednesday Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -155 @ Oakland Athletics @ 9:40 ET - I know Oakland has won 7 straight games but it is ending here in a big way. Glasnow is 17-4 since the 2019 season and has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball when he is healthy. He certainly looks healthy now as Glasnow has progressively gotten better in each of his 3 starts since coming back from injury. So here you have an expected match-up of Glasnow, 4 losses since 2019, versus Luis Medina who has 5 losses this season alone! Medina is 1-5 with a 7.53 ERA and I also like the fact that 36 of 48 Rays wins by at least 2 run margin this season. 39 of 50 Oakland losses by at least a 2-run margin. The value, even at the -155 price range, is on the run line in this one in what should play out as a road rout here. TAMPA BAY -1.5 -155

Rotation #224201: Champions League Final Saturday 10* Top Play Inter Milan Goal Line +1.5 -155 vs Manchester City at 3 ET in Istanbul, Turkey - Manchester City is a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line here in the biggest match of the year. However, while everyone is practically handing them the title before this match has even taking place, I have a strong feeling we could see an upset here. Now I am not convinced Inter Milan will do it before extra time nor penalty kicks but I have a strong feeling their tough defensive style of play is going to create headaches for Manchester City. This will keep Inter Milan in this match all the way through. That said, I can not envision City winning this match comfortably, if they even win it all! A lot of value with a tough defensive-minded underdog catching 1.5 goals on the goal line at a reasonable price and so this is the route I am going to go here. Note that, across all competitions, only 3 of last 10 and NONE of last 4 City matches have been Manchester City victories by more than a 1-goal margin. Inter Milan, dating all the way back to mid-/November has had only ONE loss by a multi-goal margin in 42 matches! Yes this is a 41-1 angle in favor of Inter Milan. For sure, Manchester City is something special this season and that really goes without saying. However, this Inter Milan club is tough and even if City finds a way to win this final I feel it will be by the slimmest of margins - 1 goal. 10* Inter Milan +1.5 -155

CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders -3 vs BC Lions @ 9 ET - Revenge game for the Stamps. They were knocked out of the post-season by the Lions last fall. Both rosters have made some significant changes heading into this season. Early season games can be tough to call but what I like here about Calgary is the focus and drive of this team entering this season after the disappointing way last season ended. The Stampeders should get a huge game from QB Jake Maier here after the tough playoff game against BC. In looking at the Lions, note that QB Rourke was a big part of the BC offense and he is now in Jacksonville in the NFL with the Jaguars. Also, WR Burnham who was a star for the Lions has now retired. So this is a team that has lost some key pieces from the one that knocked off Calgary in the post-season last year.  Although Vernon Adams, Jr could surprise at QB, he is a little difficult to trust stepping into this new situation. I am expecting the Stampeders to take the playoff rematch here to open up the season the right way and they should cover the short number along the way as well. The Stamps have the right mix of veteran guys and young hungry talent to make some noise again this season and they get it done at home here to open up the season. 10* CALGARY -3

NOTE: This game was originally going to go Wednesday but postponed by the air quality issues due to smoke in the northeast from the Canadian wildfires. I still like this play the same for Thursday and now Tyler Holton most likely will start. He has had success out of the bullpen for the Tigers but he struggled as a starter at the minor league level. Maybe Reese Olson will provide relief here too. Either way, the Tigers pitcher today is an unproven guy and the Phillies have big edge at home per ORIGINAL WRITE-UP: MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -120 vs Detroit Tigers @ 6:40 ET - Philadelphia is off 4 straight wins and plus their bats exploded Sunday and Monday so after yesterday's 1-0 win I look for the bats to wake back up today for Philly tonight. They can carry momentum from those earlier blowout wins (19 runs in 2 games) right into this game Wednesday. Tigers have lost 7 of 8 games and scored an average of only 2 runs in those 8 games. The Phillies outhit Detroit 11-3 Monday and then the Tigers again had just 3 hits yesterday. The Phillies have scored 6 runs per game last 5 games and the first 3 of those were on the road. In last 7 home games, Phillies have averaged 5 runs per game. Tigers will not be able to keep up with the hosts in this one and Detroit ends up getting blown out yet again. The Tigers are starting Reese Olson and he is a great story and had a surprisingly strong first start for Detroit in his MLB debut after making some adjustments in the minors. Trust me the Phillies watched what the White Sox did (and did not!) do against him in his MLB debut and will make the right adjustments here. As for Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler, he has a great long-term history in starts at Citizens Bank Park and I expect a strong outing from him. More of the same Tigers' struggles at the plate here in another Phillies home win. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -120

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets -2 or -2.5 @ Miami @ 8:30 ET - The Nuggets are 3-0 SU the last 3 times they have entered a game off a loss by 6 or less points. Given that straight up (SU) trend as well as the fact the line here is only 2 or 2.5, I do not have any hesitation in laying the points in this bounce back spot for Denver. Note that they outrebounded the Heat in the Game 2 loss. They also led the game by 8 points entering the 4th quarter. The fact the Nuggets fell short as a result of getting outplayed in that 4th quarter on their home floor will only strengthen their resolve here. The Nuggets were outscored by 18 points from beyond the arc in that game and it was the difference maker. The fact the Heat knocked down about 50 percent of threes and hit 17 of them while Denver hit 11 means that the final score would have been Nuggets by 15 if you take the threes out of the equation. Of course you can not do that and I had the Heat in Game 2 on the MONEY LINE as an outright +300 winner and expected them to respond big Sunday. However, I now expect Denver to make adjustments too and they respond here and get the road win. Note that Denver is 7-0 SU when they allow 100 or more points in their prior game. Nuggets D up here and the big road win by 3 or more. 10* DENVER -2 or -2.5

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 +105 vs Detroit Tigers @ 6:40 ET - Philadelphia is off 3 straight wins and plus their bats exploded Sunday plus yesterday and they can carry momentum from those blowout wins right into this game Tuesday. Tigers have lost 6 of 7 games and scored an average of only 2 runs in those 7 games. The Phillies outhit Detroit 11-3 yesterday and have scored 7.5 runs per game last 4 games and the first 3 of those were on the road. In last 6 home games, Phillies have averaged 5.7 runs per game. Tigers will not be able to keep up with the hosts in this one and Detroit ends up getting blown out yet again. The Tigers Alexander is 10-22 in his career and is making his first start of this season after working out of the bullpen exclusively thusfar. Alexander has a 6.38 ERA and has been hit at a .303 clip in his 16 outings this season. Walker does not have great overall numbers for the Phillies but, in his home starts, he has a 3.60 ERA and has held opponents to a .191 batting average. More of the same here in another Phillies home rout. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +105