Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Saturday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-) @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 4 ET - Both teams have injuries at the QB position but the Tiger-Cats are getting much better play at that spot. Dane Evans helped lead Hamilton back from a big late-game deficit last week and certainly has not been making the same mistakes that the Ottawa QB has. The Redblacks have had to turn to Dominique Davis at the pivot and he has a 5 TD's against 11 INT's! Davis leads the CFL in interceptions and, of course, that is not a category for which one wants to hold that distinction! Though some will view this game as a big motivational edge for the Redblacks as they host the first place team in their division, there is actually another way to look at this that I believe is a key factor in motivation. The first-place Tiger-Cats have lost 5 straight meetings with Ottawa. Their head coach, Orlondo Steinauer, certainly hasn't forgotten as he referenced that they (Redblacks) got them good last year. In other words, the Ti-Cats are out for some revenge this week and I like the fact that Ottawa is going through a lot of personnel changes at all the skill positions plus has a turnover-prone QB. Davis will be throwing to some new starting receivers this week too plus their running back is now out. The Tiger-Cats are not without injuries too but they are a much more "settled team" at this point in the season and they get revenge for last season's series sweep at the hands of Ottawa. Keep in mind, the Redblacks enter this game having lost 5 of their last 6 games. This line opened up at a -4 and has dropped to a -2 on the Tiger-Cats. I love to fade line moves like this one given the above. 10* HAMILTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #413 Friday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears (+) @ New York Giants @ 7:30 ET - This line opened up as low as a pick'em. This is despite the fact the Giants are at home, playing their final home game of the preseason, coming off a win, and have a QB battle going on. The Bears enter off a double digit loss at home, now are on the road, and have a less impressive QB situation in terms of the back-ups. That said, this line has been deemed a major mistake by the markets and has been driven up to a 2.5 on the Giants after opening up as low as a pick'em. Long-time followers know how I feel about supposed "mistakes" by the odds makers and I am going contrarian, as I so often do, and fading the market move. The Bears defense, back-ups mind you, were the key reason Chicago lost last week's game as they were outscored 17-3 after half-time. Teams respond after a game like that and I expect the Bears to have a little more "fire in the belly" in the second half of this game. Of course it is the 2nd half of these games that so often determine the outcome of these preseason match-ups. That said, the fact the Bears starters are likely to see little action here, with many sitting, is not the key to the outcome. Chicago is 5-1 ATS run as an underdog in preseason games. Also, as a road dog of 3 or less points the past two seasons, the Bears went a perfect 3-0 ATS. The Giants are on a 1-4 ATS run in home games in the preseason and they entered this season 0-4 ATS as a favorite in the past preseasons. Give me the road dog here! 10* CHICAGO

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #689 Thursday 10* Top Play BC Lions (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - The Lions got beat by double digits at home in their season opener when they hosted the Blue Bombers two months ago. Not only is this a revenge game but it also is a match-up offering great situational edges too. While Winnipeg is off a big divisional win over Calgary and has another huge divisional match-up on deck at Edmonton, BC is off a loss at Hamilton and has the same Tiger-Cats (non-divisional opponent) on deck for next week. That said, I love getting the generous points being offered here. The Blue Bombers benefited last week from a huge game from their special teams. The point is that, from a statistical standpoint, Winnipeg really was not overly impressive last week. On the other hand, the Lions were quite impressive from a statistical standpoint in their tight loss to the Ti-Cats. QB Mike Reilly did throw a couple INTs in addition to his couple TDs but that is what keyed the one-point loss. That said, I like the great value being offered here with the double digit road dog. 10* BC LIONS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #279 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Oakland Raiders @ 8 ET - The Raiders opened up as 2.5 point favorites in the earliest of lines that popped up globally on this game. Oakland then got be up to as high as a 5.5 before settling in at a -5 as of very early Saturday morning. The perception is that Gruden and the Raiders care more than McVay and the Rams. However, Gruden was with Oakland last year when they lost to Los Angeles in the preseason. Of course McVay was with the Rams then just as he was also in 2017 when LA also beat the Raiders in the preseason. Lets not forget that Oakland won only 4 regular season games last year. This season the Raiders are again projected to be one of the worst teams in the league. That said, with depth being an important factor in preseason outcomes, just how good can Oakland's depth be? Truly it is not o the level of the Rams. That said, even if one could surmise that the Raiders are the hungrier team here will that really translate to the less talented team and the team with less depth wining this game in convincing fashion? I think not! Give me the generous points being offered to the Rams as I would also like to note that LA is 2-1 in weeks 1 to 3 in each of the last two preseasons both SU and ATS and that included a loss by just 2 points. Remember week 4 of preseason is always a truly meaningless week so lets take that out of the equation. So the point is that the Rams 6 preseason games under McVay played in Weeks 1 through 3 of his two seasons have resulted in just ONE loss by more than two points! Give me the team that "supposedly" doesn't care here and "supposedly" will get blown out despite all the facts stated above! 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #682 Thursday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 8:30 ET - This game is for first place in the West Division. Long-term the Stampeders hold a huge edge in this series as they've won 19 of the last 22 meetings. However, this line opened up as high as a -10 on the Blue Bombers with plenty of good reason. Now that the markets, as expected, have moved it down to a -7 on Winnipeg, it is "go time" with this one. The Blue Bombers saw their unbeaten season come to and two weeks ago at Hamilton. Then last week on Thursday they blew a 20-0 lead at Toronto to get upset by a single point as a huge favorite. Can you imagine how fired up Winnipeg will be at home for this game after all this that has transpired the past two weeks? Keep in mind the Blue Bombers are still undefeated at home this season and they catch Calgary off a big home win over Edmonton last week. Not only was that a big divisional win for the Stamps, it also came on Saturday so the Bombers have a nice rest edge in this match-up. Additionally, the Stampeders are still down to their back-up quarterback and I look for an angry Winnipeg team to respond huge at home in this game and play their best game of the season thus far on both sides of the ball. The situational aspects of this game favor the Blue Bombers in a big way and the odds makers had it right with their bigger number on the opener of this game. Look for the home team to win in a blowout by double digits. 10* WINNIPEG

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #259 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Miami Dolphins @ 7:30 ET - If you listen to the "experts" the Falcons have no chance here. The line has moved after it opened up at -2.5 and has gone to a -4.5 on Miami in this game. I got absolutely ripped off when I used the Falcons in last week's HOF Game. They outgained the Broncos 261 to 188 yards in that game and were a +3 dog that also forced two fumbles. However, a late game interception (their only turnover in the game) followed by a pair of 4th down conversions for Denver in their game-deciding final minutes drive did me in. Keep in mind the Broncos won the game on a 4th and 14 play after already previously converting a 4th down play in that drive. Everyone who had Denver was very lucky. The Falcons defense played a great game and I expect that to be the case again this week. That said I am happy to grab the generous points being offered here. Yes, Atlanta has a poor SU/ATS record in preseason under Dan Quinn but we're still talking about fading the Dolphins here and getting 4.5 points in doing so! Sure Miami has a rookie coach (generally a good play on spot in preseason) and they have a QB battle going on. But how good can a roster be (including for depth) when they are projected to be the WORST team in the NFL this coming season? The fact that Miami also blasted the Falcons in Atlanta in the preseason last year only adds fuel to the fire for the Falcons back-ups in this one. I like their solid and deep defense against a bad Miami team. Keep in mind the Dolphins went 0-3 SU in their other 3 preseason games last season. Also, Miami was a mediocre 2-2 SU the year before in preseason and one of those wins came by just 3 points. That means in the past TWO years the Dolphins only have TWO wins by more than 3 points in preseason action. Give me the points and don't expect any game-ending nonsense to burn us this week! 10* ATLANTA

Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #976 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs +125 vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:05 ET - I got burned with the run line in this match-up yesterday when the White Sox got an unearned run in the top of the 9th on a 2 out 2 strike RBI single. It happens but I'll come right back with the same play today. The Phillies went 0 for 5 with runners in scoring position but that won't happen again today against Reynaldo Lopez. Yes, the White Sox right-hander has had better numbers since the All Star break but his long-term numbers tell the full story and a regression to the mean is happening again. It started in his most recent start when he did not have good stuff but managed to escape with minimal damage. Lopez allowed 6 hits and walked 4 for 10 baserunners in just 5.1 innings. He was fortunate to allow only 2 earned runs in that start. He won't be so fortunate here as the Phillies bats explode against him. The White Sox won't be able to match the Phillies scoring here for multiple reasons. One is the fact that Chicago has lost 9 of its last 11 games and scored an average of just TWO runs per game! The other reason the White Sox will struggle at the plate is that Drew Smyly has been dominating since coming to Philadelphia. Sometimes a change of scenery is all a hurler needs for success and Smyly needed out of Texas. He has displayed an excellent cutter since coming to Philly and has allowed just 1 earned run in 13 innings with the Phillies. Also, the Phils get closer Hector Neris back from his 3-game suspension today. 10* PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES Run Line -1.5 runs +125

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #695 Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (-) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian and I like to look for lines that look a little "off" where I am confident the masses are going to be looking one way and so we jump in on the opposite side and look the other way. It is something that has worked very well for me through the years and I expect that to again be the case in this Saturday match-up. Edmonton is AT Calgary and yet the Eskimos are a slight favorite here. Basically the line is right around a pick'em but most are going to look at this game and say, "Oh, I can take the defending CFL champs on their home field at a pick'em" and they'll be all over the Stampeders here. The fact is that the odds makers set the line this way with good reason. For one thing Calgary is still using Nick Arbuckle at QB because of the Bo Levi Mitchell injury. Admittedly, Arbuckle has surprised this season. However, he still has a total of only 2 touchdowns (plus also 2 picks thrown) in his last 3 games. This included games against Ottawa and Toronto too. Those two teams, even after rare wins this week, are a combined 4-10 on the season! Arbuckle is going to face a much tougher test here and I like the fact that Eskimos QB Trevor Harris entered this week's action as the #1 passer in the CFL for passing yards! He is fully capable of another huge game here and you know they've had this game circled in red as this is a heated rivalry and the Eskimos appear to be on the way up this season while the Stamps are regressing as they are suffering a "Grey Cup hangover" this season plus have the injury at QB spot. 10* EDMONTON

Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #930 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 runs (-130) vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies need their ace in a big way on Saturday after an inexcusable loss last night To lose at home in 15 innings to a slumping White Sox team was beyond disgusting for this Philadelphia team. Suffice to say, look for Aaron Nola and a fired up Phillies lineup to get their revenge today. Part of the key to the value with this play is the fact that last night's game went 15 innings. That lengthy game put plenty of stress on both bullpens. That means that the length the starting pitchers can go in Saturday's game is going to play a key role in the outcome. That said, the Phillies edge on Saturday became even bigger after the way last night's game played out. Ross Detwiler starts for the White Sox and his ERA has consistently been above 6.00 since the 2015 season! He was used as a part-time starter in 2015 and 2016 and averaged about 5 innings per start. This season Detwiler has averaged only about 4 innings per starts. Compare this with long-term workhorse Nola. He consistently averages 6 innings per start but has been even stronger of late as he has averaged about 7 innings per start his last 8 starts. He has dominated with an ERA below 2.00 during this stretch and he offers huge edges over Detwiler given the above factors. Keep in mind, prior to last night's White Sox win they had been slumping badly while the Phillies were starting to heat up. That said, huge value here with Philly available in the -130 price range on the run line (laying the run and a half). Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs

Run Line Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #976 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs +105 vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - The White Sox are off a 4-0 shutout loss yesterday and have now lost 18 of their last 23 games! Chicago has seen 16 of those 18 losses come by two or more runs! The Phillies are a big favorite here on the money line but that is why the play here is the run line. Not only are the ChiSox slumping, their losses have been coming by a multiple run margin! With their 10-2 win yesterday, Philadelphia has won 8 of its past 12 games. The last 4 wins all have come by 2 or more runs and have averaged a margin of victory of 4.8 runs per win. The Phillies will start Jason Vargas in this one and he has a 3.53 ERA in his last 13 starts and was very strong for the Mets (2.93 ERA and .208 BAA) in his home starts for them. Ivan Nova starts for the White Sox and though he enters off a pair of strong starts, both of those were at home. Nova has been getting absolutely crushed on the road. In his last two starts away from home he has allowed 10 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings. In his last 3 road starts, Nova has given up 24 hits in 16 and 2/3 innings. Look for this one to be all Phillies as they have the edge in the starting pitching match-up plus the home field edge plus Philly is the much hotter team while the Sox have been ice cold for a month now. By the way, the White Sox also rank in the lower third of the majors for slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers. 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #691 Thursday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) @ Saskatchewan Roughridgers @ 9:30 ET - Hamilton lost starting QB Jeremiah Masoli to a season-ending knee injury during last week's big win over Winnipeg as they handed the Blue Bombers their first loss of the season. The odds makers are aware of this. Dane Evans, a successful QB in college with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, will start in his place. The odds makers are aware of this. The point I am making is that this line opened up at a pick'em with plenty of good reason but the markets have pushed Saskatchewan to being a 3-point favorite in this spot as if the odds makers don't know what their doing. Yes this is a revenge game for the Roughriders as they lost at Hamilton in their season opener this year. However, Saskatchewan has struggled against quality teams this season. They got blown out by Calgary a few weeks ago. The Riders also lost to an Ottawa team that is now 2-4 on the season. Saskatchewan is 3-3 on the season and 2 of the wins have come against a BC team that is 1-6 on the year and the other win came against a Toronto team that is 0-6 on the season! Until the Roughriders prove they can beat a quality opponent I have no problem fading them. Also, you know the Tiger-Cats are in a "rally the troops" mode after losing Masoli to injury last week. This will be their first full game without him and everyone will bring their "A game" in support of Evans, the new starting QB. You see this in all sports where the first game after an injury there is often a "rally the troops" game and that is what I am expecting here. Love the value with the +3 and betting on a team that is 5-1 this season and going against a team whose only wins have come against bad teams. Keep in mind the Tiger-Cats defense allowing just 19 points per game this season and the Ti-Cats have a rest edge here since they played last week on Friday. Saskatchewan played on Saturday last week and so this is a very short rest spot for them on Thursday. 10* HAMILTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #242 Thursday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 8 ET - Atlanta was as high as a -2 favorite when lines first came out. Now the Falcons are as high as +3 underdog. I am well aware of the fact that Atlanta doesn't have a good history of winning in preseason under head coach Dan Quinn and the fact that Denver has a new head coach. However, Vic Fangio certainly isn't new to the NFL. The Broncos head coach has been a defensive coordinator for multiple decades at the NFL level. In other words, the fact that first year head coaches tend to get backed by the betting markets in the preseason has simply led to extra line value in a case like this. Are the Broncos (and HC Fangio) really that much hungrier for a win here? Truly the answer is no! This is preseason and simply a chance for teams to work on things and evaluate personnel. That is particularly the case in an early-season (and extra) preseason contest like the Hall of Fame Game. That said, I am happy to take the underdog here and fade the line movement. In my opinion, the odds makers had it right with the original line set on this game and I am grabbing the extra line value with the Falcons. 8* ATLANTA

Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Wednesday 10* Top Play Minnesota Twins Run Line -1.5 runs @ Miami Marlins @ 7:10 ET - The Twins won a tight low-scoring ball game yesterday by a 2-1 count. That was the 15th time in 23 games in which the Marlins were held to 3 or less runs. That said, I certainly can't see Miami's lackluster lineup enjoying success against Jose Berrios. For one thing, this is an inter-league match-up and the Marlins are not familiar with him. For another thing, Berrios got back on track with 12 strikeouts against the White Sox. He has a 2.50 ERA over the months of June and July combined as he continues to impress. As for Sandy Alcantara, I don't mean any disrespect but he was an All-Star this season partially because the Marlins had to have a representative. His first half numbers show a 4-8 record and a 3.82 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Alcantara was truly not dominant to say the least and now he has fallen hard in the 2nd half of the season. Since the All Star break, Alcantara is win-less in 3 starts and opponents are hitting nearly .300 against him. He is going to have his hands full with a Twins team which has a .514 slugging percentage in the month of July. Note that the impressive mark places Minnesota 2nd out of all 30 MLB teams for slugging percentage in the month of July. By the way, Miami has a slugging percentage of .373 this month and that places them dead last in the National League. This game has road rout written all over it! Twins are 14 games over .500 in road games this season while the Marlins are 13 games under .500 in home games this year. Of course that is why Minnesota is a big road favorite here on the money line. The value is on the run line where one can invest in the Twins at -1.5 runs at nearly even money! This is a great value as more than 75% of the Twins wins have been by 2 or more runs this season. Also, 75% of the Marlins losses this year have been by 2 or more runs. 10* MINNESOTA Run Line -1.5 runs

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #979 Saturday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs @ St Louis Cardinals @ 7:15 ET - The Astros lost yesterday's game in the bottom of the 8th. I know the Cardinals have been hot but after Houston blew their 8th inning lead, I look for ace pitcher Gerrit Cole to restore order for the Astros. Of course the odds makers expect the same and that is why Houston is priced as a heavy money line favorite on the road in this one. As everyone knows by now, I never lay big prices. Where I see the value here is by laying the 1.5 runs with the Astros as I do expect a road rout in this one. Cole is 7-0 with a 2.03 ERA in his last 11 starts. The Houston right-hander continues to pile up strikeouts. We're getting some value here because the Cardinals Daniel Ponce de Leon has a low ERA on the season. Keep in mind, Ponce de Leon has not thrown a lot of innings this season and we're now seeing signs some struggles are on the way. In his last two starts, both against a Pirates lineup not nearly as tough as this Astros lineup, the Cardinals right-hander has as many walks as strikeouts. Also, over those two outings Ponce de Leon allowed 11 hits in less than 7 innings of work. Including the 6 walks he has a 2.55 WHIP in his last two starts. Allowing about 5 baserunners for every two innings of work will get a hurler into trouble in no time against an angry Astros lineup that has plenty of pop. Cards took game one of this series but Houston gets payback in this one! 7 of the Astros last 8 wins have come by a margin of two or more runs. As for St Louis, 15 of the last 20 Cardinals losses have come by a margin of two or more runs. 10* HOUSTON -1.5 runs

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #687 Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) @ BC Lions @ 7 ET - I have tremendous respect for the odds makers and this is true even in CFL. Sure this is not a big market place for them but every game in every sport that has a number on it has great thought and research put into it for specialists from that sport. That being said, I have an interesting viewpoint on this game based on what the odds makers did here. Keep in mind last week Saskatchewan was at home against BC and the Roughriders opened up as only a 2-point favorite. Now, knowing that the Riders won last week's game and that the Lions have revenge in this game and that home teams have dominated the series between these teams, how in the world could Saskatchewan have opened up as 3.5-point road favorites here? Exactly! My point is that the whole world (at least the betting world that pays attention to CFL) is likely to be lining up on the home dog revenge-minded Lions here. As for me, I'll side with the sharpest minds in the industry...those on the other side of the counter...the odds makers! Doesn't work all the time of course...nothing does...but this is an angle I like to use a lot. In this specific case, it may seem surprising to see this line on Saskatchewan but don't be fooled. It is has already come down to as low as a -2 because the markets are doing precisely what I would expect them to do given the above. Let's take advantage and lay the short number with the road favorite. 10* SASKATCHEWAN

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #686 Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - Winnipeg is 5-0 on the season and that means the Blue Bombers have the attention of everyone as the only remaining team in the league that is undefeated. However, the very first lines that popped up globally on this game had Hamilton as the 2-point favorite. Now, as of early Friday morning, the Tiger-Cats are a 2.5 point dog. This is a great value opportunity on a home dog. While I certainly respect the 5-0 Blue Bombers, note that Hamilton is a solid 4-1 on the season as well plus they are coming off a bye week. Also, about that 5-0 for Winnipeg...note that 4 of the wins have come against Ottawa (2), BC, and Toronto. Those teams, after Redblacks and Argonauts lost last night, are a combined 3-15 on the season! The only team with a winning record that the Blue Bombers have beaten was Edmonton - currently 4-2 on the season after last night's victory. A win is a win as they say but do note that the Eskimos outgained the Bombers in the aforementioned game and it was at Winnipeg. Also, Edmonton scored SEVEN times in the game but the problem for the Eskimos was that all 7 scores were field goals! Give the Blue Bombers credit for keeping them out of the end zone but the fact is that Edmonton moved he ball quite well in that game. The home team won both games (SU) last season and I look for that trend to continue here but will grab the points as insurance. 10* HAMILTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #682 Thursday 8* Ottawa Redblacks (+) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - This line has been on the rise for the favored Stampeders because everyone is looking at the revenge angle from their Week 1 home loss in Calgary. However, what about the fact that the Stamps are off a big win here and they have division rival Edmonton on deck? Also, what about the fact that Ottawa scored just 1 point in last week's ugly loss and also the fact that this is the one and only time on the schedule that the Redblacks get the chance (on their own home field) to get revenge for last year's Grey Cup loss? The fact is that Ottawa is what I would term a "live dog" in a match-up like this and I am grabbing the generous points. Note that Calgary is 0-3 ATS in non-conference games this season and also 0-3 ATS in games in which they have been a favorite. Certainly with this line hanging around a full TD the line definitely is not insignificant. This is particularly true when you consider that the Redblacks are 16-7 ATS as an underdog including a superb 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they have been a home underdog. 8* OTTAWA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Thursday 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies +1.5 runs (+135) @ Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - I look for Jeff Hoffman to come up with a big start here as he has the "stuff" in terms of his pitches to be successful. Hoffman will be highly motivated as he gets another chance in the rotation after being demoted a month ago. One of the keys helping him in this match-up is that the Nationals haven't exactly been knocking the cover off the ball of late. This is particularly true when off a win. Washington won yesterday's second game of the double-header 2-0 and have now averaged just 2.3 runs per game the last 6 times they have entered a contest off a win. Additionally, I know Max Scherzer is a great pitcher but the Nats right-hander is returning from a back injury. After the time off he may not be as sharp as usual. Also, Scherzer may not pitch as deep as usual in this game. That means the bullpens could play a role here. Don't be fooled by the Rockies overall bullpen numbers as those are impacted by where they play their home games. In fact, Colorado's bullpen has a 3.59 ERA in road games this season. By comparison, the Washington bullpen has a 6.15 ERA in home games this season. You can clearly see which team holds the edge in that department. As for the Rockies quiet sticks so far in this series, they entered this series having scored 13 runs in the final two games of their series in the Bronx and I am expect them to get back on track in the finale of this series. That said, I like the "plus plus" value here as we get the Rockies on the run line +1.5 runs and in the +135 range price-wise. 10* COLORADO Run Line +1.5 runs

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phllies Run Line -1.5 runs @ Detroit Tigers @ 1:10 ET - After last night's marathon 15-inning win, the Phillies surge continues while the Tigers struggles continue. Incredibly, Detroit is now 1-15 this season when they are a home dog in a range of +125 to +175. Of course I am not going to lay the big price with the Phillies on the money line though. I don't lay big prices. Where I feel we have great value here is that we can take Philadelphia on the run line (-1.5 runs) at even money (or even plus money in some spots) as of early Wednesday morning. The Tigers went 5-20 in June and also are now 3-14 in the month of July. That means Detroit has now lost 34 of their last 42 games! The Tigers have Jordan Zimmermann on the mound for this one. He is having a nightmare month. In July, Zimmermann is 0-2 with a 16.36 ERA in his 3 starts. The right-hander has allowed 6 or more earned runs in each start despite never making it out of the 5th inning. The Phillies start Vince Velasquez here and certainly he has been inconsistent this season. However, he has good stuff and has struck out 25 in his last 21 and 1/3 innings. Historically Velasquez has proven capable of dominating weaker lineups and certainly the downtrodden Tigers fall into that category. Look for the Phillies to win this one in a road rout. The Phils have won 4 of their last 5 and momentum is starting to build again for the Phillies. 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #974 Tuesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Run Line -1.5 runs vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:20 ET - The Royals only have 15 road wins this season. No team in baseball has fewer road wins than Kansas City! Also, KC has 64 total losses on the season and 47 of them have come by 2 or more runs. Of the Braves 60 wins this season 42 have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Yes, Atlanta is a huge favorite on the money line in this game and I would never lay that price. However, there is great value with the Braves on the run line. At -1.5 runs, Atlanta is available at a pick'em price. As you can see, per the above an Atlanta win is likely and the odds also strongly favor that said win comes by 2 or more runs. Both teams are starting southpaws in this game and that also holds significance here. Kansas City is dead last in the AL for slugging percentage against lefties. As for the Braves, they rank a solid 3rd in the NL for slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. This situation strongly favors the Braves with Dallas Keuchel over the Royals with Danny Duffy. Keuchel fell apart in the 6th inning against Milwaukee in his most recent start but, previous to that, the Braves southpaw allowed 2 or less runs while going at least 7 innings in each of his 3 prior games. As for the Royals Duffy, he has a 6.75 ERA in his past two starts and he faced a pair of teams not nearly as strong as the NL East leading Braves. Also, Duffy will be making his first road start this month and he has a 6.88 ERA in his last 3 starts away from home. All signs are pointing to a home blowout in this one as the Braves also have the stronger bullpen. 10* ATLANTA Run Line -1.5 runs

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #689 Thursday 10* Toronto Argonauts (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 9 ET - The Stampeders have only 1 home loss this season and it came against the Redblacks. Ottawa and Calgary also have met twice for the Grey Cup title in the past three season. Keep in mind the Stampeders loss to the Redblacks was in their home opener! That said, who do the Stamps have on deck for next week? Ottawa! Who are the playing this week? The only winless team in the CFL, Toronto. The Argonauts are 0-4 on the season and I could see the Stampeders looking right past them here. I still expect Calgary to win but I expect the victory margin to be single digits and I love the value with the road dog here. The Stampeders starting quarterback, Bo Levi Mitchell, is out and that means Nick Arbuckle continues to get time under center. He has struggled to get Calgary deep into the red zone in games. As for the Argos, they have Mcleod Bethel-Thompson under center and he threw for nearly 400 yards and 3 TDs last week. I feel we've got great underdog line value here as the Argonauts running attack was also better than Calgary's in last week's action. 10* TORONTO

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #682 BC Lions (+) vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 10 PM ET - Everyone is down on the Lions right now and, that is why, once the first line was posted at Eskimos -2.5, everyone jumped all over Edmonton and the line shot up to as high as a -5. I love the value with the home dog BC in this one. Yes, the Lions finally got their first win last week and it was an unimpressive 1-point win over the Argonauts. However, getting that first win (no matter how ugly) was key. Keep in mind they faced a desperate Argos team and it was on the road and a win is a win as they say! That being the case, BC also might have been peeking ahead at this revenge game with the Eskimos. Keep in mind the Lions got drilled at Edmonton already this season and BC quarterback Mike Reilly and the Lions would like revenge against his former team (and a division rival). I like the fact that BC has revenge here, they are at home, and they got their running game going big-time last week with John White having a huge game. The Lions are 10-4 (both SU and ATS) the last 14 times they've hosted Edmonton. Overall, BC is 7-3 SU in its last 10 home games and I am happy to get them here at home plus get some points! As for Edmonton, they are on a 3-6 ATS run their last 9 games. Also, the Eskimos are 1-4 ATS (and 0-5 SU!) in their last 5 road games! The Lions haven't been at home since their season opener 4 weeks ago and they will make the most of this opportunity. Even though Edmonton is off a bye week, their history of struggles on the road can not be ignored and the Lions have momentum after last week's win. 10* BC Lions

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #691 Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7:30 ET - There is still an East-West dichotomy in the CFL in my opinion and it favors the West. This match-up is a good example of that as the Blue Bombers have gone 6-2 against East Division foes each of the last two seasons. As for the Redblacks, they managed a 5-5 mark against West Division foes last season and an ugly 3-6-1 mark against the West the prior season. As you can see that means Winnipeg is 12-4 the past two seasons in non-divisional action while Ottawa is 8-11-1 in non-divisional action. That said, and considering the Redblacks have some injury issues on defense here, I am happy to grab the generous points being offered to the Blue Bombers. Even though Ottawa is off a bye week, they are actually 1-5 ATS the past two seasons when off a bye. Also, the Redblacks are 5-11 ATS as a home favorite. Ottawa's QB has put up some solid numbers in the first two weeks but has also thrown too many interceptions. Winnipeg has a solid Matt Nichols at QB. Also, the Blue Bombers are 14-7 ATS their last 21 road games. With Montreal upsetting Hamilton last night, these two teams tonight are the last of the unbeatens. Even though Ottawa is 2-0 the Redblacks two wins have both been extremely tight (3 and 4 points) which, in addition to the above, is another reason I love having the underdog Blue Bombers in this match-up. 10* WINNIPEG

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #690 Thursday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7:30 ET - The Alouettes are 0-2 this season and got blasted last week at Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats are 3-0 this season and have delivered back to back blowout wins the past two weeks. It looks easy to lay the points with the road team here, right? Of course it does and in typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side of this one. I am grabbing the ugly home dog here with Montreal. The fact is that, after last week's blowout win in this same match-up at Hamilton, the Tiger-Cats could very easily get caught looking right past the Alouettes. That's because the Ti-Cats have a huge game at home next week against Calgary. Sure that is a non-divisional match-up but if you don't think Hamilton is looking forward to hosting the defending Grey Cup Champion Stampeders you are mistaken. Montreal managed to hold the Tiger-Cats scoreless in the first quarter of last week's game but then the wheels came off. Keep in mind, this is Montreal's home opener. They are the last team in the CFL to get a home game this season and I expect them to make the most of it. Their defense will perform better for a longer period of time in this game as the home field makes a big difference. We're also getting line value here as this line is the same as it was last week even though the venue has shifted north. Of course the reason it didn't adjust by 6 or 7 points like it normally would is because of last week's final score in this match-up but the point is that this is giving us extra value here with the home dog. Also, as they showed in Week 1 at Edmonton, the Als have the ability to score late points and make things interesting which also means the back-door cover opportunity is there should we need it in this one. I actually think we won't though as I expect the Alouettes to keep this one tight all the way. Hamilton has lost 18 of their last 23 visits to Montreal SU. The Als are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. They'll be the type of scrappy home dog I love to see in this Thursday match-up. 10* MONTREAL

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #688 Monday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) vs Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - This line was up near 14 when lines first came out. It is now down to 10 as of early game day morning and I love the value with the home favorite here. Yes, the Roughriders are 0-2 to start the season but this is their first home game of the new season. Also, the teams that Saskatchewan lost to are now a combined 5-0 on the season and the Riders lost each game by just a single possession. Toronto, on the other hand, has played only one game but they got absolutely annihilated by a 50 point margin and that was on their home field no less. Keep in mind, the Argonauts went 0-9 SU in road games last season! Even in their miracle season in 2017 that saw them come together at just the right time for a Grey Cup title, the Argos went 3-6 in regular season road games. Simply put, Toronto is not a good road team and Saskatchewan is arguably the toughest place to play in the league. That said, I expect this one to get ugly quick and, with how angry the Roughriders are, the home team is not going to take their foot off the gas in this one. That is bad news for a Toronto defense that allowed a TD on SEVEN straight possessions during last week's embarrassing loss. The Argonauts are on a 4-9 ATS run as a road underdog. The Roughriders went a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS the past two seasons when they entered a game off consecutive SU losses. This one has home blowout written all over it as Cody Fajardo played very well last week in place of injured starting QB Zach Collaros and Fajardo and Company will slice and dice this Argos defense while Toronto's futility on offense allows the Riders defense to shine in this one at home. 10* SASKATCHEWAN

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #684 Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - The Als managed to rally for the cover in their week one ATS win in a 7 point loss at Edmonton. The Eskimos did have a big lead in that game but then relaxed some and Montreal got back into it. The Alouettes will face a much tougher challenge here because the Tiger-Cats regular season home finale (and fan appreciation day) was ruined by a loss to the Als in early November last year. How did Montreal do it? The situation was helped by the fact that it was a meaningless game for the Ti-Cats as their post-season position for the following week was already set. All the same, Hamilton has been thinking plenty about that loss as they have been preparing for this rematch opportunity. The odds makers hung a 14 on this game but bettors have knocked it down a bit. That has led to value on the hungry and undefeated home favorite here. Hamilton is 2-0 and rolling early this season while the Alouettes organization entered this campaign in full disarray with a late head coaching change (right before the season) among other distractions. Keep in mind, prior to that loss to the Als in the most recent meeting, the 3 prior games had seen Hamilton win all 3 by an average margin of victory of 33 points! Another bloodbath likely here! Montreal is 3-16 SU in their last 19 road games. As for the Tiger-Cats covering the big number here, note that they are 6-2 ATS the last 8 times they have been a home favorite in a range of 10.5 to 14 points. 10* HAMILTON

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #694 Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts (+) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 4 ET - The Argonauts have a new head coach but certainly he is not new to Toronto. In fact it is Corey Chamblin and he was previously the Argos defensive coordinator. This included their run to the Grey Cup Title in 2017. That said, with Toronto having a bye in week one, they have had plenty of time to prepare for their season opener at home this week against Hamilton. I like the fact that the Tiger-Cats have seen the line double here. Hamilton opened up as a 2 point choice but is now a 4-point favorite as of early game day morning. This means extra value for the home dog Argonauts. That said, you also know that there is plenty of motivation for Chamblin's defense to put the stops on a Tiger-Cats offense led by QB Jeremiah Masoli. Hamilton enters this season with expectations to be a top team in the east and the Argonauts are highly motivated to make a statement about that right here. Additionally, I like the fact that the Ti-Cats were outgained by over 100 yards on the ground last week. Hamilton won despite a huge yardage deficit on the ground and, keep in mind, Masoli didn't exactly light it up either. He was held to 169 yards through the air and that was against a Saskatchewan team that then allowed 44 points at Ottawa this week. In other words, don't be surprised when the Argonauts give the Ti-Cats a helluva test here and either win the game outright or lose by 3 points or less. Hamilton is 3-11 SU and ATS in Saturday games the past two seasons. The fact that the Tiger-Cats won all three meetings last season is even more reason to go with the hungry, revenge-minded home underdog here. 10* TORONTO

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #692 Friday 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (-) vs BC Lions @ 9 ET - The home team won and covered all 3 meetings last season. This match-up opened up at a -4.5 and has dropped to a -3 and I love the value we're being offered here with Edmonton. The Lions QB is former Eskimo Mike Reilly. Certainly he would love to get a win over his former team but don't forget that the Eskimos defense also has some added motivation here. Also, even though Reilly had some strong stats in in his first start for BC last week, he did also throw two picks. Note that Reilly's replacement in Edmonton, Trevor Harris, had a massive game for the Eskimos last week. Also, Edmonton's ground attack was solid with CJ Gable running for over 150 yards on 20 carries. The Eskimos have the home field edge and the running game edge as the Lions rushing attack last week was non-existent. That said, Harris was the better QB than Reilly last week in each teams respective season opener. Even if Reilly outplays Harris in this match-up, the Eskimos have the other key edges that should still lead to a home victory. Considering that as well as the value with this line down to a -3 and the small home fave is the play in this one. 10* EDMONTON

Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #954 Friday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs vs Miami Marlins @ 7:05 ET - Yes the Phillies have been struggling badly but they are now back home, have their ace pitcher on the mound, and are hosting one of the worst teams in baseball. Look for the Marlins to prove to be the perfect elixir for what ails Philadelphia. The Phillies start Aaron Nola in this one and he has a 2.41 ERA in his last 3 starts versus Miami. The Marlins start Sandy Alcantara in this one. He allowed 6 earned runs on 11 hits in just 5 innings of work when he faced the Phillies earlier this season and that start was at home. Now Alcantara faces them at Philly. As bad as the Phillies have been of late, the Marlins have been even worse. Of course I would never lay 2 to 1 odds on a money line but note that, even though the money line is up to as high as a -235 on this one, the run line is available as low as even money! That said, I am happy to lay the 1.5 runs here as 37 of the Marlins 46 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. In other words, when Miami loses (often) it loses by big margins (often). Also, 31 of the Phillies 39 wins this season have come by 2 or more runs and this is the perfect bounce back spot for the Phils. Play PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs

Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #926 Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 2:10 ET - The Astros are 2 to 1 favorites on the money line in this one with good reason. Of course I would never lay that type of price but this is the type of situation where the run line can prove to be very valuable. By taking Houston -1.5 runs the price on the Astros drops into the pick'em range and that is offering great value as an Astros win by 2 runs or more is highly like. The Astros are 6-1 in Brad Peacock's home starts this season. Also, the Blue Jays Trent Thornton has been in significant jams in his recent starts and has been fortunate to work himself out of those. The Toronto right-hander won't be so fortunate Sunday as he faces one of the toughest lineups in the league. The Astros have blasted the Jays by a combined score of 22 to 4 in the first two games of this series. Overall, Houston has averaged scoring 8.8 runs per game in their last 4 games. The Blue Jays last 10 losses have all come by 2 runs or more. In fact, Toronto has lost those 10 games by an average margin of 5.5 runs per defeat! The Blue Jays are 10-27 (including 1-7 this season) as a road underdog of +175 to +250 and that is the range they fall into again today. Look for another home rout as the Astros stay hot at the plate and also hold a big pitching edge in this match-up. Thornton has a 6.13 ERA in his last 3 starts. 10* HOUSTON Run Line -1.5 runs

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #685 Saturday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - A rematch of last year's Grey Cup and I like having the big points on my side here considering all the off-season changes for both of these teams. Yes, Calgary has won 7 straight home openers and also defeated Ottawa in all 3 meetings last season. However, there were wholesale changes for both teams coming into this season. That said, I like the fact that Redblacks defense has more continuity than the Stampeders defense heading into this season. Ottawa's defense remains mostly intact from last season in terms of personnel and they are responding well to defensive coordinator Noel Thorpe heading into the season. The Stamps also have a new defensive coordinator this season but their situation is much more complicated. Former Calgary defensive coordinator DeVone Claybrooks is now the head coach of the BC Lions. New Stamps DC Brett Monson has a tall task in front of him as the Stampeders lost more than half their starters from the unit that won the Grey Cup last season. As an underdog, Ottawa has gone a fantastic 15-6 ATS the past two seasons. The Redblacks are also a fantastic 11-2 ATS in June games. Ottawa is 13-5 ATS in road games the past two seasons and Calgary is an ugly 1-4 ATS the past two seasons in home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 52 points. The turnover ratio was 12 to 4 last season in favor of the Stamps which played a key role in the Redblacks going 0-3 ATS in their 3 meetings. That poor ATS record is also part of the reason this line has jumped from 6.5 to 8.5 on Calgary. In typical contrarian fashion,  I am on the other side of the line move and grabbing the extra value per all the reasons noted above. 10* OTTAWA

Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #954 Saturday 10* Top Play Washington Nationals Run Line -1.5 runs vs Arizona Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - Huge pitching edge for the Nationals here and, of course, that is why they are priced as a 2 to 1 favorite here on the money line. We can still get involved here with Washington without laying big prices as we can go with the Nationals on the run line in this one. That brings the price down to a pick'em range and, certainly a Washington win is likely to come by 2 or more runs here. That's because 25 of the Nationals 32 wins this season have come by 2 or more runs and more than half of the Diamondbacks losses this season have come by a multiple run margin. Arizona is starting Taylor Clarke in this one and the right-hander has a 6.35 ERA as a starter this season including a 9.58 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Nats start Stephen Strasburg in this one and he has settled in quite nicely after a rough start to the season when he was struggling with the long ball. Strasburg has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. Also, one of the weaknesses for Washington is their bullpen but Strasburg has averaged 7 innings per starts his last 10 starts so truly the bullpen impact in this game should be minimal and the Nationals should be able to use their top relievers to close this one out. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Nationals are 5-1 this season. Also, the Nats are 3-0 in Strasburg's last 3 starts overall and also 3-0 in his last 3 home starts. As a road dog in a range of +175 to +250, Arizona is 2-11 their last 13 and I like the strong odds that a Diamondbacks loss here comes by 2 or more runs. 10* WASHINGTON Run Line -1.5 runs

Football Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Thursday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7:00 ET - The Riders have an experience edge here as the average age on their roster ranks them first in the league. The Cats are at the other end of the spectrum as they have 15 first-year players on their roster and that is the most of any team in the league. Though one would be correct in arguing that Hamilton's QB Jeremiah Masoli rates the edge over Saskatchewan's Zach Collaros, the pivot isn't the only position of importance on the field to say the least! The Roughriders were a top rushing team last season and that helps keep the defense off balance and that will open up the aerial attack for Collaros. Also, the Riders have won 5 straight games over Hamilton. Long-term, the Roughriders have won 23 of their last 30 games against the Ti-Cats. Hamilton is 2-9 SU and ATS the past two seasons in games in which the Tiger-Cats line ranged from a +3 to a -3. I am happy to grab the points in this one but I do expect the Riders to make it 6 in a row over the Ti-Cats! Both teams have new head coaches for this season and Hamilton also has changed both their offensive and defensive coordinators too. This has led to value with the road dog in this season opener. 10* SASKATCHEWAN

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #529 Monday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 9:05 ET - The Warriors could have Kevin Durant back on the floor tonight. All signs are pointing that way and I liked Golden State in this match-up for Game 5 even if he didn't play so truly this has just increased the value for me. That's because the line, as of early Monday morning, has only budged by about a point, even though Durant could be a key catalyst for a big comeback effort from Golden State. While it is true that the Warriors are down 3-1 in this series, it is also true that it only takes one GS win for them to be very much alive in this series. Game 6 would be at home for Golden State and, with Durant possibly back on the floor for that one too, the Warriors would be a sizable favorite for then forcing an "anything can happen" Game 7 north of the border. Like I said, you can see why all hope is certainly not lost for GS and that is especially true when you consider that these guys are repeat champions looking for another ring! In other words, they've "been there, done that" and will be very hard for the Raptors to close out. Note that the Warriors are a long-term 13-6 (SU and ATS) when trailing in a playoff series. Toronto is a long-term 7-12 SU when leading in a playoff series. The Raptors, especially if Durant is back for GS, will be feeling the pressure to close this series out at home and avoid another trip to the West Coast. Truly this has the makings of an amazing series finish as I expect the Warriors to come up with their strongest effort of the series tonight and force a Game 6 out west. 10* GOLDEN STATE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #528 Friday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 9:05 ET - The Warriors are in full on bounce back mode here after an embarrassing home loss in Game 3. Golden State was still without Kevin Durant of course but they also were without Klay Thompson for that game and that proved to be too much for them to overcome even though Stephen Curry scored 47 points. In Game 4 Friday, look for the Warriors to have a true "energy game" here as they are highly motivated and also will be energized by the return of Klay Thompson here. GS can not afford to fall into a 3-1 hole. Yes, a "must win" does not always equate to a "must win" but in this case, with the defending champs at home and in a great spot for a huge effort, I am happy to lay the short number in this one. Golden State is 13-5 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Toronto is 6-12 SU and 7-11 ATS when leading in a playoff series. When the Warriors enter a game off 3 or more consecutive overs, Golden State has gone 8-2 SU and ATS this season. Look for the Warriors to really clamp down on defense here after allowing 123 points in Game 3. When playing with home loss revenge, GS has gone 9-3 SU this season and they've covered 8 of those 12 games! Keep in mind, the Raptors entered this series having gone just 1-2 SU and ATS in road games in their series victories over the 76ers and Bucks. In other words, it is easy to see why the odds favor a letdown here for Toronto after they already got their big road win and cover in Game 3 on Wednesday. Payback time for the small home favorite. 10* GOLDEN STATE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #523 Sunday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The Warriors are 12-5 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Golden State is 8-2 SU their last 10 games in NBA Finals and that is even after losing Game 1 of this series. Look for the Warriors, even though still without Durant, to respond big in Game 2. The earliest numbers that popped up offshore for this one had the Warriors as a slight favorite but now they are an underdog catching as many as 2.5 points as of early game day morning. Golden State is 21-7 SU when playing with revenge this season. Also, this will be the Warriors 4th straight road game but, interestingly, GS is 32-7 SU the last 39 times they have entered a game off of playing 3 or more consecutive road games. Toronto, in franchise history, is an ugly 6-11 SU when leading in a playoff series. The Raptors have covered 5 straight games but, prior to this, the longest ATS winning streak for Toronto this season was 4 straight games. You can see that the odds are certainly in favor of this streak coming to an end. It has been a great run for the Raptors but I also like the fact that Siakam shot a ridiculous 14 of 17 in Game 1. You know that numbers like that are not going to happen again here. Also, Green and Iguodala combined for 5 of 16 shooting including 0 of 6 from three point land for the Warriors. When you flip these numbers around to the normal range you will see that Golden State should respond and be on top in Game 2. That huge game for Siakam was the 4th time in May that he scored 20 or more points while also shooting at least 45% from the field. What happened after the 1st three? Siakam averaged just NINE points and shot just 33% from the field. Adjustments are made game to game and the Warriors have had plenty of time to make some key changes for their Game 2 planning. Much different result today. 10* GOLDEN STATE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:30 - This line opened up at a pick'em and has risen to a -2.5 on the Raptors. Consider that Milwaukee also entered Game 4 off a loss in Game 3 of this series. The line for Game 4 was the Bucks -3. So now we have seen this line completely swing in the opposite direction. The last time these teams played in Toronto the Bucks were favored by 3 and now they are the underdog by 3 points. Of course that is not where the odds makers set the line, that is what the markets are forcing. Long-time followers know whom I like to side with in the majority of cases like this and this one is no exception. I'll side with the odds makers and fade the markets here. We are simply getting exceptional line value here. Milwaukee has lost 3 straight games for the first time this entire season. The Bucks also have failed to cover the spread now in 3 straight games which is also rare for them this season. The last two times that has happened they got blowout wins by a double digit margin in their next game both times. I am not saying we're going to necessarily see a road rout here but I am expecting an outright win and am happy to have the points on my side as added insurance. Milwaukee shot 45% from the field in Game 5 and held Toronto to 37%. So what happened in that game that led to the loss? The Bucks allowed too many uncontested threes. The Raptors had 18 threes compared to just 10 for Milwaukee. That is a difference of 24 points. At the free throw line Toronto outscored the Bucks by 12 points. When you consider those stats combine for a 36 point advantage and yet the Raptors only won the game by 6 points you can see why I am not so impressed by Toronto like the betting masses are. Give me the points here which is where the sharp money is very likely to go in this game! The Raptors don't have a good history in this situation as they are 5-11 SU when leading in a playoff series. The Bucks are 16-4 ATS (19-1 SU) when off of an upset loss as a favorite. 10* MILWAUKEE

Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #966 Friday 10* Top Play Minnesota Twins Run Line -1.5 runs vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - The White Sox are very popular in the market place right now because everyone just witnessed them winning back to back games over the might Astros in Houston. Chicago wrapped up the 4-game series split with a 4-0 win last night. However, the White Sox and Reynaldo Lopez are being vastly overvalued here. Now, of course, I am not laying the money line on this game (-200 range) but we can get the Twins in the -105 or -110 range here simply by being willing to lay the 1.5 runs on the run line. I won't hesitate as I sense a home blowout in this game. Chicago's Lopez has struggled on the road all season. The White Sox right-hander has been hit at a .328 clip in his 3 road starts this season! It is not a fluke as last season he went 4-7 with a 4.20 ERA away from home. The prior season, in limited action, he had a 6.75 ERA in his 3 road starts. As for the Twins Jose Berrios, he is known for dominating at home. He is 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his home start this season. The prior two seasons he went 18-5 with a 2.79 ERA in home starts! Yes indeed he is 22-6 in his last 28 decisions at home. The White Sox have been strong the past two games but, prior to this, they scored an average of only 1.9 runs per game in going 2-5 their previous 7 games! As for the Twins, they are one of the hottest teams in MLB as they are 8-1 their last 9 games and have scored an average of 8.8 runs per game in those 9 games. The White Sox are 3-8 when off a shutout win. Minnesota is 20-4 as a home favorite in a money line range of -175 to -250.  The Twins also are 29-11 against right-handed starters this season. Note that 21 of the 26 losses Chicago has this season have come by 2 or more runs. For the Twins, 25 of their 33 wins this season have come by 2 or more runs. Lay the -1.5 runs! 10* MINNESOTA RUN LINE

Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #508 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:30 ET - It is truly entertaining to see how quickly market perception can swing on teams. Everybody is talking about the Raptors because they won big in Game 4. Lets not forget they barely won Game 3 on their home floor and it took double OT to do it. Lets not forget that Kawhi Leonard scored just 19 points in Game 4. That said, if you think his teammates are going to contribute on the road in Game 5 in the same way they did in Game 4 on Thursday, then you haven't been watching the Raptors for much of this post-season. This Toronto team relies heavily on Leonard and the fact he seemed to be favoring his leg at the end of the Game 3 marathon in which he played 52 minutes and then was held under 20 points in Game 4 should be a warning to Raptors supporters. I don't foresee Kyle Lowry having another huge game here. Keep in mind he had averaged just 13 points in the two prior games before scoring 25 on Tuesday. Also, he had averaged only about 12 points in the first two rounds of the post-season. Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka combined to shoot 12 of 18 off the bench at Toronto in Game 4. Again, very unlikely to see this again in Game 5 on the road. Milwaukee is going to be very aggressive Thursday and will have the support of the home crowd all the way through. Keep in mind the Bucks were very close to going up 3-0 in this series and yet now that it is 2-2 and the Raptors support players played so well in Game 4, everyone is talking about Toronto. You know what usually happens when the masses start to line up on one side don't you? The Bucks are the play here and should dominate this one. Milwaukee is 4-0 their last 4 home games and won those by an average margin of 19 points per game. The Bucks also went 2-0 at home in the first round of the post-season and the average margin was 28 points per victory. Milwaukee is off back to back losses for only the 2nd time this season. The one time it happened during the regular season they won their next two games, both at home, by an average margin of 18 points per game as both were blowout wins. Of course, one game at a time here for the Bucks but they haven't lost 3 straight games this entire season and certainly I expect this win to come by 7 or more points. Good line value with this line dropping to 6.5 in many of the big sports books as of early game day morning. The Raptors are 4-11 ATS when they enter a game off 3 or more consecutive overs. The Bucks are 16-3 ATS (19-0 SU) off an upset loss as a favorite and also 6-0 SU and ATS this season when off a loss by a double digit margin. Payback time. 10* MILWAUKEE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #502 Monday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - With Damian Lillard reportedly dealing with a significant rib injury and the Trail Blazers down 3-0 in this series the handwriting appears to be on the wall for Portland. However, even with Lillard struggling the Blazers were up huge in Game 3 before the Warriors roared back for the win. Of course in Game 2 (admittedly when Lillard was healthier) Portland also had a great shot at the win but it slipped away late in the 3-point loss. The fact is that, ever since Game 1 when the Trail Blazers appeared fatigued from their series with the Nuggets that went the full seven games, Portland has been ultra competitive with Golden State. I just don't see them getting swept out of the playoffs by losing this one on their home floor. The Blazers have showed me enough (even with Lillard hurting) that I fully expect them to win this game tonight. I will grab the points being offered (as many as 4 available in some spots) but will look for the outright win. Note that Golden State has failed to cover 24 of 38 times this season when they are off a win that came by a victory margin of 10 or more points. The Trail Blazers, prior to Saturday's loss, had been a PERFECT 3-0 ATS in this post-season when trailing in a playoff series. They let that Game 3 slip away just like they let Game 2 slip away on the road. Look for the Blazers to prove to be the hungrier and more determined team tonight. It is often when a team is left for dead by the masses that they rise up and play their best game (especially when at home) and that is what I fully expect here. 10* PORTLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #548 Saturday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The home team has won 3 straight in match-ups between these teams. The Trail Blazers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings in Portland. Many will be happy to grab the Warriors plus the points in the rare role of an underdog for them but, in typical contrarian fashion I am going against Golden State here. The Blazers actually had a 15 point lead at halftime of Game 2. Portland trailed by only 6 points heading to the 4th quarter in Game 1. The point is that the Trail Blazers saw each game slip away from them in the 4th quarter as, even after a horrific 3rd quarter in Game 2, they were still tied going to the 4th and had a late lead before falling just short. These things are understandable on the road. But, at home, I don't expect Portland to collapse late as they have done in each of the first two games. The fact that the Warriors are finding out that Kevin Durant's injury is a little worse than originally thought is also unlikely to help the psyche of Golden State heading into this one. As for the Trail Blazers, they will have a high motor in this game as they are back home and ready to get right back into this series after letting each of the first two games slip away late. The Game 2 loss was particularly disheartening for the Blazers but heading back home after that 3-point defeat will have Portland firing on all cylinders in this one. The Trail Blazers are 23-3 SU in their last 26 home games. The Warriors are 3-5 ATS in their last 8 road games. 10* PORTLAND

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The Blazers shot 36% in Game 1 while the Warriors shot 50%. Portland turned the ball over 21 times compared to Golden State giving it up just 14 times. Even with that, the Trail Blazers were down by just a single digit margin with under 5 minutes to go before the wheels completely came off in the eventual loss by 22 points. The fact is we're getting great line value to again be offered the same line in Game 2 with Kevin Durant again out for Golden State and with the Blazers very likely to play much better in this one. This season, when Portland is on the road and coming off a game in which they were held to less than 100 points, the Trail Blazers are a perfect 4-0 ATS! This season, the Warriors are 3-6 ATS when they are off a game where they allowed less than 98 points. The fact is that game one was an unusual result and you can see what recent history suggests happens after a game like that and I see Portland coming up huge in game two. Damian Lillard's hamstring issue is minor and the Blazers have not failed to cover back to back meetings with the Warriors since their playoffs series two years ago! In meetings between these teams since April 24, 2017 the Trail Blazers were 5-2 ATS before failing to cover Game 1 of this series. Look for the bounce back here and at least the cover as an outright upset would not surprise me here! Look for the Warriors to drop to 3-6 ATS in this post-season when leading in a playoff series and keep in mind Golden State is only 4-4 SU in these playoffs when they hold the lead in a series. 10* PORTLAND

Playoff Hot Side - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Tuesday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - Without Kevin Durant, the Warriors are impacted more than just on the offensive end. Golden State allowed 47% to the Rockets in Game 6 without Durant on the floor. Note that the Blazers come into this match-up having allowed only 41.5% from the field in their last 6 games against the Nuggets. 3 of those 6 games were played on Denver's homes floor where they are so tough. The fact is that there are still many doubters about Portland but this team is for real. The Trail Blazers saw CJ McCollum take over in Game 6 at Denver when Damon Lilliard was having a rare sub-par game. That gives Portland a strong enough backcourt to compete with the Warriors. The fact that Rodney Hood is doubtful for this game does hurt the Blazers depth in their frontcourt (already without Jusuf Nurkic of course) but keep in mind the Warriors are not only without KD but also DeMarcus Cousins. Portland has won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and that includes the most recent meeting at Golden State. The Blazers are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games and I like having them plus big points as they will be going hard in Game 1 to steal a game at Golden State while Durant is out. The Warriors got the outright upset at Houston in Game 6 but were 4-9 ATS in their 13 prior games. Golden State is also 2-5 ATS when off an outright upset win as an underdog. Also, the Warriors are 11-24 ATS their last 35 Tuesday games. I find it hard to believe that the Warriors are justified in being a 7.5 point favorite here over the Blazers when this very same lineup was a 7.5 point dog at Houston! Even factoring in home court of 3 points each way that is still saying that the Rockets are 9 points better than the Blazers! I don't believe that for a second. Yes the Warriors have a rest edge here but Portland did have two days off before facing Denver on Sunday and they are riding a positive wave of emotion right now. I look for the Blazers to be in this one all the way. 10* PORTLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7 ET - When the 76ers come to play and are aggressive, they have proven they can beat the Raptors and this is true even in Toronto as they won Game 2 here. After taking a 2-1 lead in the series, the Sixers dealt with an ailing Joel Embiid and some passive play and dropped two straight games. Facing elimination in Game 6 they didn't just "hang on for dear life" to even the series up at 3, Philadelphia absolutely dominated the Raptors. The game wasn't nearly as close as the final score would indicate. Once again the Sixers are afforded two days of rest heading into this game and that is a huge edge for them considering Embiid, more than any other player for either team in this series, benefits from the extra rest. He had a +/- of +40 in Game 6 despite scoring only 17 points. The point is that shows you how much he contributes on both ends of the floor. He had a couple of big blocks of Kawhi Leonard that later had Leonard dishing the ball instead of driving to the hoop. The big fella is going to continue to dominate inside in Game 7 and we also saw a lot more attacking of the rim from Ben Simmons and, of course, Jimmy "Buckets" had a huge game as he continues to show leadership qualities that most were not expecting from Butler. This 76ers team has more star power than the Raptors and the Sixers are coming together as a team at the perfect time. They carry momentum right from Game 6 into Game 7 and note that in the last 5 games Philly has only been blown out once. The Sixers have won 3 of the 5 and only 1 loss came by more than 5 points. I fully expect the outright upset here but am grabbing the points. If the Sixers fall short it will likely be a heartbreaking loss by only a bucket or two. There is no way the 76ers are coming out soft or flat in this game. As a result, they are in this one all the way and have a great shot at the outright upset as the Raptors heavy reliance on Leonard burns them in the end. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #525 Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 3:30 ET - These teams are evenly matched which is why this series has gone 7 games. Of course if the Trail Blazers had Jusuf Nurkic on the floor the series would have already been over with Portland prevailing. However, even without Nurkic the Blazers have won 3 of the last 5 games including a game at Denver and I am backing Portland here on the road. I expect the outright upset but I am happy to grab the generous points. The Trail Blazers are 21-10 SU (and 20-11 ATS) when off a win by a double digit margin. The Nuggets are 3-5 ATS the last 8 times they were off a game where they allowed 113 points or more. Also, Denver is known for a strong home court edge but is actually only 7-10 ATS in their last 17 home games and that is a long-term run that dates back to late February! The Nuggets have been held to 39.8% or less from the field in 3 of their last 7 games and two of those were on their home floor. Also, Denver has shot only 27.5% from three point land in their last 4 home games in this post-season. In the last 5 games between the Blazers and Nuggets only 1 of the 5 was a Denver win by more than 4 points. I look for that trend to continue here as the Trail Blazers are in this one all the way and either win the game outright or lose by 5 or less points. Great underdog value here. 10* PORTLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #520 Friday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - There have been 8 meetings in calendar year 2019. Three in the regular season and now 5 in this playoff series. The result? ALL 8 were decided by 6 points or less. That said, this line being at 7 or 7.5 in favor of the Rockets must be a colossal mistake, right? In typical contrarian fashion I will lay the big points here. Kevin Durant is out for this game and I smell a blowout. Why? Because that means more reliance on other key big scorers like Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry to step up. Of course the key to the style that Thompson and Curry play is knock down threes and that simply has not been happening at a normally productive clip for much of this series. It seems Curry's finger might indeed be an issue in his shooting touch. The two teams have combined to make just 31% of their threes in the last two games in this series. The fact this game is at Houston also lessens the likelihood of a strong shooting night for the Warriors. At the same time, the Rockets could absolutely go on huge runs in this game because the absence of Durant is certainly impacting to Golden State on both ends of the floor. The Warriors have averaged just 32.8% from three point land in their last 4 games at Houston and only 105 points per game. Certainly those are not typical Golden State numbers. As for the Rockets, they've averaged 112 points per game the last 4 times they've hosted the Warriors and that number should grow here with the Warriors sans Durant! Also note that Golden State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Rockets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Lay it and look for a double digit home blowout here. 10* HOUSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #514 Thursday NBA 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - In the minds of most, this series is over. That is why a line that first opened up around a pick'em is now as high as -2.5 on Raptors. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the "left for dead" 76'ers here. They are on their home floor. They just lost back to back games and were held below 100 points in each contest. If you don't think the Sixers are going to give one helluva effort in this game than you don't know much about the emotion and pride of professional players especially when those players are on their home floor. So what happens when Philly, unlike Game 5, gives a strong effort? The Sixers held the Raptors below 100 points in both Games 2 and 3 of this series. The 76ers won that Game 3 right here in Philly by a margin of 21 points. Remember they were heavily doubted after losing Game 1 of the series versus Brooklyn. The Sixers responded by winning 4 straight games. They were again doubted after losing Game 1 of this series at Toronto. They responded by winning back to back games including their lone home win in this series coming in dominating fashion. Joel Embiid's health (upper respiratory infection) was at his worst in Game 5. He'll be a different player in Game 6. The 76'ers are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times they've entered a game off 2 or more consecutive non-covers. Philly is 9-1 ATS this season when off a game in which they failed to score 100 points. You read that right, they were a PERFECT 9-0 ATS off a game in which they were held under the century mark PRIOR to that loss in Toronto on Tuesday. I don't see lightning striking twice. The Sixers improve to 10-1 ATS in that situation with a resounding win tonight that will feature intensity, emotion, and a crazy atmosphere in Philly. Give me the home dog! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #912 Thursday 8* Cleveland Indians Run Line -1.5 runs vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:10 ET - The Indians are a big favorite on the money as they are currently priced at -220 or more. However, by utilizing the run line we can get Cleveland at even money with laying the 1.5 runs. That said, I like our chances of a dominating home win here. Now I am well aware of the fact that the Indians have not been scoring well this season. However, they do have momentum here after last night's 5-3 win which handed the White Sox their 4th loss in their last 6 games. Chicago has had just one big game at the played in those 6 games. In the other 5 games, the White Sox have scored an average of only 2 runs per game! All 4 losses in this stretch have come by 2 or more runs and, in fact, the average margin of defeat was 6.8 runs per game! The Indians lineup will take advantage of facing Manny Banuelos. The Chicago southpaw was decent in his first two starts but he faced an Orioles team that is one of the worst in the majors. Sure enough he got clobbered in his next outing when he faced the Red Sox. The Indians should get to him early and often plus then Cleveland has the bullpen edge in this match-up too. As for the Tribe starter in this one, Carlos Carrasco did get victimized by the long ball in his most recent start but he still has a solid 3.24 ERA in his 3 home starts this season. Also, in his last 3 starts against the White Sox Carrasco has allowed just 2 earned runs total while striking out 31 batters in 20 and 2/3 innings! More dominance on tap here and that should lead to a home blowout in this one. 8* CLEVELAND -1.5 runs on the RUN LINE

Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Wednesday NBA 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - This line opened up at a 5.5 and has moved to as high as a 6.5 as of early morning on game day. I am grabbing the points here. While it is true that the home team has won all 4 games, it is also true that the Rockets have momentum on their side after winning each of the past two games. The Warriors had a chance to go in for the kill and certainly would have been in great position to now finish Houston off in this game if they had just taken one of the two in Texas. However, after losing both of those games Golden State now faces a Rockets team that has renewed confidence and hope in this series. That is the combination that makes for a dangerous dog and I especially like dogs in spots like this when they're offered at a line of a half dozen points or more. Note that Houston is 6-2 ATS this season when they enter a game on exactly a 2-game ATS winning streak. In terms of the Rockets entering a game on an ATS winning streak of 2 or more games, they are 13-6 ATS the last 19 times they've been in that situation this season. The point is that when Houston gets on a roll for their backers it has paid to jump on board and I expect the Rockets to stay hot here. Keep in mind, these teams have now played 7 games in calendar year 2019 and ALL SEVEN have had a margin of victory of 6 points or less! The Warriors enter this game on a 4-8 ATS run and are simply not as dominant as they've been in past post-seasons. Look for another very close game that could go either way. I feel this one could be the upset many have been waiting for in this series but I am grabbing the valuable points as added insurance! 10* HOUSTON

East Beast - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Wednesday 8* Boston Celtics (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - Now that the betting markets have soured on the Celtics the Bucks rose to as high as a 9.5 point favorite here after opening as low as an 8 point choice. I look for Boston to respond here and, though Milwaukee is the better team in this series, I don't see this game being decided by double digits. The Celtics are 10-3 SU and ATS (including 5-2 SU and ATS this season) when they enter a game off 3 or more consecutive losses. The Bucks are a long-term 67-114 ATS when entering a game off 3 or more consecutive wins and that includes a 19-27 ATS mark since the beginning of the 2016/17 season. This one might be about playing for pride for the Celtics but, as a result, that is precisely what I feel you will see here and there will be no quit in this team in Game 5. Grab the big points. 8* BOSTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Tuesday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are still not getting any respect from the betting markets. Certainly give credit to the Raptors for winning Game 4 at Philly but also note that Joel Embiid was sick and had a tough time in that game. Even with that (and despite the fact Kawhi Leonard scored 39 points, the Sixers still almost won that game. Keep in mind the rest of the Raptors combined for only 62 points on ugly 22 of 56 shooting from the field (including just 5 of 24 from three point land). News flash everyone: Toronto is not as good as everyone thinks they are. They rely so heavily on Kawhi as you have seen! Note that Leonard is averaging 38 points per game in this series and yet it is still tied 2-2. You can bet (literally) that Philadelphia is going to do a much better job on Leonard in Game 5. Also note that the 76ers have outrebounded their opponent in 12 straight games! Not surprisingly the Sixers are 8-4 SU and ATS during this stretch but they continue to get no respect from the betting markets. I feel strongly that Philly has a great shot at winning this game outright. I am grabbing the generous points being offered but truly Embiid is due for a monster game and everyone seems to underestimate other Sixers players like Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons, JJ Redick. These guys will all be in "attack mode" in Game 5 after losing on their home floor in Game 4. Note that Philly is 39-20 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. The Raptors are 3-9 ATS in their last dozen second round playoff games. Give me the hungry road dog playing with a chip on their shoulders in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - April 28 of last year is a day the Bucks haven't forgotten. It was the day their season ended as Boston finished them off in Game 7 of their first round playoff series. Even though today's game isn't an elimination game it is a chance, in a sense, for Milwaukee to return the favor so to speak. Now up 2-1 in this series, the Bucks can go in for the kill here because a 3-1 series lead with Game 5 in Milwaukee (and Game 7 if necessary) is likely too much for the Celtics to overcome. The Bucks will not let up here, not after they were beaten by double digits in that Game 7 loss here last spring. The home team took all 7 meetings in that series but that was then and this is now. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams have seen the road team get the cash. Also, Milwaukee has now won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. They are the better team this season and their 27-14 regular season road mark was tied with the defending champion Warriors for the top road record in the league. The Game 1 loss in this series for the Bucks seemed to be the wake-up call they needed. They have responded since then and that is their only loss of the post-season. Also, their 6 wins have come by an average margin of 20.5 points per victory! There is nothing "average" about those numbers! Milwaukee has dominated. As for the Celtics, their 4 wins in their sweep of the Pacers came by an average margin of 7.5 points and truly Indiana was in every single one of those games with a chance to win every single game! Boston is 12-22 ATS after a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Bucks are 19-6 ATS this season after allowing 115 points or more and also 13-6 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games while the Celtics are 6-9 ATS with the same rest factor. Once again, Boston will not be able to stop Giannis Antetokounmpo in this one and he keys another road win. 10* MILWAUKEE

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #593 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Portland Trail Blazers @ 7:05 ET - 9 straight games, including the quadruple OT game Friday, between the Nuggets and Blazers have been decided by single digits. That said, I certainly feel there is value with having the points in this match-up even though the points being offered are rather small. The fact is that having the points means that, in essence, you covered Friday's game 5 times as you covered at the end of regulation and at the end of each of the 3 OT periods before it finally went final after the 4th OT. The key point being that there is just not a lot that separates these two teams and that is also why the road team has now covered 5 of the last 7 meetings. I do feel that the Jusuf Nurkic injury will continue to catch up with the Trail Blazers the further they go into this post-season. Denver has now won the rebounding battle in back-to-back games and truly the Nuggets did themselves in with turnovers in Game 3. I fully expect a bounce back here as Denver is 4-1 SU and ATS the last 5 times they've had 13 or more turnovers in a game. The Nuggets also are 7-1 ATS in second round playoff games. Portland is 1-3 ATS the last 4 times they've forced 14 or more turnovers in a game. The Blazers won the turnover battle by 7 in Game 3 and certainly that was a key factor in the 3 point win. Portland is 5-11 ATS in playoff games including 2-4 in their last 6. I fully expect the Nuggets to get the outright win here and even this series up but I am grabbing the points as added insurance. Having the points on our side is also what elevates this one to top play rating. 10* DENVER

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #592 Sunday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 3:35 ET - As per usual, compared to the regular season, the playoff schedule is much better for players to get rest. That is such a key edge for the 76ers because of big man Joel Embiid being afforded extra rest for his knees. After the Sixes got embarrassed in Game 1 they dominated Game 2 at Toronto. Then, after two days off, Philadelphia dominated Game 3 at home. Now, after two days off, what do you think happens again in Game 4 with Philly at home? Yes, the Sixers should dominate. Embiid is rested for the 76ers and also their bench depth is better as there are healthier than they've been in some time. Also, the Raptors Pascal Siakam is dealing win an injury. Though he his listed as doubtful I would not be surprised to see Siakam end up playing but his effectiveness will be impacted by his lower leg injury. The Sixers are extremely confident right now, playing great defense, and getting solid overall play from key contributors. Factoring in a healthier bench too and they have the depth and star power to outdo a Raptors team that relies far too much on star player Kawhi Leonard. Toronto will be hungry to bounce back here but they are quickly finding out that this is a very tough match-up for them. Also, the Raptors are 6-14 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in playoff games in this post-season and are 34-11 SU in home games this season. Considering the very low number on this game, the Sixers offer great line value at home as any SU win also is likely to equate to an ATS win. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #590 Saturday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:35 ET - Down 0-2 in the series, and with extra time to think about it due to the 3 days off between games, the Rockets will have a fire lit under them for this game. Houston allowed 115 points in Tuesday's loss. Prior to that the Rockets had allowed an average of just 99 points per game in their 6 prior games. As for the Warriors, they had allowed an average of 113 points per game and gone 4-7 ATS in their 11 games prior to the win and cover in Game 2 of this series. Golden State is 5-9 ATS in Saturday games this season. Also, the Warriors are 7-11 SU the last 18 times they've been an underdog. That said, should a SU loss for Golden State equate to an ATS win for the Rockets? Yes. Each of the Warriors last 3 losses have come by 4 or more points and the average margin of defeat was 9 points. As for Houston, 9 of their last 10 wins have come by 7 or more points and 8 of those 9 victories came by a double digit margin! The Rockets had a non-covering win (but by 7 points!) in their most recent home game and that ended an ATS run of 8-0 in their last 8 home games! Look for another big home win here as the Rockets are 15-1 SU in their last 16 home games and the lone loss in that stretch was to the Warriors. In other words it is payback time and revenge time here as the Rockets get right back into the series Saturday. 10* HOUSTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #585 Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The general betting strategy employed by most will lead them to back the Celtics here since they are back at home and off an ugly Game 2 loss. As long-time followers know, I am generally contrarian to public perception. That said, it comes as no surprise that I love the Bucks in this spot. Milwaukee made adjustments after Game 1 and simply took over and imposed their will in Game 2. The Bucks are the better team this season. While I certainly expect the well-coach Celtics to now counter with some adjustments of their own here at home in Game 3, the fact is that Milwaukee is the more talented team in this match-up. The concern for the Celtics is that Giannis Antetokounmpo made only 7 field goals in Game 2 and Boston still lost the game by more than 20 points! The Bucks start did have 29 points in the game but the fact his teammates poured in 94 points is a good sign of things to come in this series for Milwaukee. I know the Pacers team the Celtics team faced in round one was tougher than the Pistons team the Bucks faced in round one. However, I still can't get over the fact that Milwaukee absolutely crushed Detroit throughout that series and it was never in doubt while Boston actually could have lost each of their 4 games with Indiana. Yes the Celtics games with the Pacers were "that close" even though it ended up being a sweep. The Bucks went 7-3 ATS as an underdog this season. Boston is 10-15 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. No bounce back here for the Celtics. 10* MILWAUKEE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #582 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers simply continue to get no respect from the betting markets. After losing to the Nets in Game 1 of their first round series with Brooklyn many were saying the Sixers wouldn't even survive Round One. Of course Philly proceeded to win 4 straight over the Nets. Now, of course, the Raptors are a much better team than the Nets and I am NOT saying the same thing here (that Philly will win 4 straight). But here is what I am saying, Game 3 is a fantastic situation for the Sixers. After getting embarrassed in Game 1 of this series they responded with a huge Game 2 effort and got a key road win at Toronto. Now everyone expects the Raptors to bounce right back and win Game 3 as Philly opened up as a 1.5 point favorite but now is a 1.5 point dog. Lets not forget that one of the biggest concerns for the Sixers is the health of Joel Embiid. That said, the extra rest that has been afforded between Games 2 and 3 of this series is a huge edge for Philadelphia. Additionally, the home crowd will be amped up for what is just the 2nd home game for the 76ers since mid-April. This will be an incredible atmosphere in Philly and they won their last two home games by 22 points apiece. The Raptors get a lot of hype and love due to their finish to the regular season but this still a Toronto team that is only 12-9 SU (and 9-12 ATS) in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record and they have a first year head coach. The Sixers are 16-11 SU against teams with winning record and 33-11 SU in home games this season. Everyone continues to doubt this 76ers team and we'll take advantage with the great line value considering this favorable situation. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #577 Wednesday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 9:05 ET - It looks easy to simply take the Nuggets on their home floor, right? Of course this was particularly true when the line opened up at a 3.5 in some of the big books offshore. Not surprisingly, the line is now up to as high as a 4.5 as of game day morning and I am fading the masses and grabbing the road dog here. The Trail Blazers are off back to back non-covers. Note that Portland is a PERFECT 8-0 SU the last 8 times they've entered a game on an ATS losing streak of 2 or more games. Though I do expect the outright upset here I am grabbing the points with the Blazers for added insurance in this one but, the point is, a SU win is likely in this one so having a handful of points too is simply an added bonus for us. The Nuggets were on a 5-9 ATS run in home games before notching the win and cover in Game 1 of this series. I look for Denver to drop to 11-19 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Trail Blazers will turn up the heat on defense after allowing 121 at Denver Monday. Note that, prior to that game the road team had covered 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams. Keep in mind, since the All-Star break two and a half months ago, the Blazers have lost back to back games only ONCE! Look for a huge bounce back from the road team to even this series up but grab those points for the added insurance. 10* PORTLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #572 Tuesday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - I had the 76ers last night after they got thoroughly embarrassed at Toronto in Game 1. The result? A never in doubt cover even though many pundits left the Sixers for dead after the Raptors destroyed them in Game 1. The same principle applies to this match-up. As a result of the Celtics winning big at Milwaukee in Game 1, there is already a strong anti-Bucks pro-Celtics attitude among the so-called experts. As always, over-reacting to one game is a common theme in today's "what have you done for me lately" world. I am going contrarian here and grabbing a Bucks team others won't want to lay the points with and, certainly, it is not without plenty of logic and reason. First off the Celtics made 34 of 56 two point FG attempts in Game 1 while Milwaukee made only 18 of 50 two point FG attempts. Give plenty of credit to Boston for that but do you really think the Bucks aren't going to make adjustments for Game 2? They are on their home floor and will be fired up and ready to respond on BOTH ends of the floor after being embarrassed in front of their own fans in Game 1. Keep in mind that is a 32 point difference on two pointers. If Bucks just play "even" with Boston from inside the arc they win Game 1 by 10 points and I feel they can do even better than "even" with the Celtics in Game 2. After all, Milwaukee is 21-1 SU (including 11-0 SU at home) when coming off a loss this season. Okay, but what about the cover? Milwaukee, if you like them to get the SU win here, should also be whom you back for the cover because 83% of their wins this season came by 8 or more points. In fact, 16 of their 17 wins since March 1st have come by a margin of 8 or more points. As for the Celtics, 8 of their last 11 losses have come by a margin of 8 or more points. The Bucks roll big at home in this one. 10* MILWAUKEE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #561 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - Even more so today than in the past, likely to due to social media influence and the overall vast amount of media coverage on games and match-ups, public opinion is swayed extremely fast. The Sixers are now "left for dead" in this series because they lost Game 1. That is simply preposterous. Let me explain what happened in Game 1. The Sixers shot less than 40% from the field while the Raptors shot better than 50%. Games like this happen from time to time for all teams and Philadelphia is no exception. Yes, I am aware of their poor recent history at Toronto but think of all the bad teams the 76ers have had in recent seasons that helped build that 0-14 SU run in games played north of the border. Philadelphia, of course, is a much better team this season and the fact is that the Sixers had 13 offensive rebounds in Game 1 compared to the Raptors having just 2 and that helped lead to a 14-2 edge in 2nd chance points. Overall for the game the 76ers took 10 more shots from the field. They weren't soft, they just didn't shoot well. The fact is Kawhi Leonard and Pascal Siakam had huge games for the Raptors in Game 1 but you can bet the 76ers will make some adjustments. The remainder of Toronto's team combined to score just 34 points in Game 1 on 13 of 41 shooting. Remember what happened when Philly lost Game 1 to the Nets in the first round and everyone was bashing the 76ers? They responded and won 4 straight games to quiet the critics. Of course I am not saying that is happening here in this series but I am saying that getting a revenge-minded Philly team +6.5 points again in Game 2 is a great value. Keep in mind this is still the first season for the Raptors Nick Nurse as a head coach at the NBA level. Don't be surprised when the Sixers win the "adjustment game" here in Game 2. The fact is you know that Leonard and Siakam are highly unlikely to combine for 74 points again just like the 76ers Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and Jimmy Butler are extremely unlikely to go 15 for 47 combined from the field again! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 3:35 ET - The Warriors Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both are dealing with ankle injuries entering this game. Thompson's appears to be the bigger concern but, either way, it is definitely an issue. Many are going to look at the low spread on this game and jump on the home team but the contrarian viewpoint should prove to be the right viewpoint here. The fact is that the Rockets are only getting about a half-dozen points here with good reason. Not only the fact that Curry and Thompson may not be 100% but also the fact that Golden State is off a bit of a grueling series with the Clippers. That series with LA took more effort from the Warriors than many expected and, while Golden State is on short rest here, the Rockets have a solid rest edge after dispatching of the Jazz in 5 games. The Warriors are a long-term 11-24 ATS in Sunday games including a poor 2-9 ATS this season. Golden State is also 14-24 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. The Rockets enter this game on a 9-3 ATS run. Also, Kevin Durant just had a huge series against the Clippers but he never scored more than 29 in the 3 games versus Houston this season. He won't be able to carry the Warriors against a high-quality Rockets team like he did against the 8th seeded Clippers. If the Rockets are going to steal a road game in this series this looks like a great spot given the rest edge. I am grabbing the points as added insurance but I truly do expect an outright upset. 10* HOUSTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #552 Sunday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 1:05 ET - Both teams are off first round sweeps. However, while the Bucks absolutely destroyed the Pistons in each and every game, the Celtics barely beat the Pacers in each and every game. The fact is Indiana had a chance to win every single game against Boston but played some of the worst situational basketball I have ever witnessed. The point is that the Celtics won't be so lucky as to receive a gift-wrapped win here from the Bucks like they seemed to receive in nearly every single game with the Pacers in that first round series. This Milwaukee team had the best record in the NBA regular season and, barring a major injury, is built to go all the way this year. That said, I am happy to lay a reasonable number here with the Bucks on their home floor. Milwaukee, if you like them to get the SU win here, should also be whom you back for the cover because 83% of their wins this season came by 8 or more points. In fact, 16 of their 17 wins since March 1st have come by a margin of 8 or more points. As for the Celtics, 8 of their last 11 losses have come by a margin of 8 or more points. Boston is very well-coached and may be able to make some adjustments after Game 1 but I see the Celtics getting blasted here as the Bucks are full of emotion and momentum right now after their first round sweep and are ready to roll on their home floor in this one! 8* MILWAUKEE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #542 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 10:05 ET - The Spurs shot a very high percentage in their Game 6 win and that included both from inside and outside the arc. San Antonio will not repeat that on the road. First off the Spurs have lost 6 of their last 7 road trips to Denver. Secondly, the Nuggets are fired up after letting the elimination opportunity slip away in the 2nd half of that game at San Antonio. Denver, when playing on their home floor off a SU road loss is a perfect 9-0 SU the last 9 times! You can easily see why it is logical for the Nuggets to get this home win. However, what about the cover? Note that each of the last 5 games in this series have been decided by 9 or more points. Also, 6 of the Nuggets last 7 wins have come by a margin of 9 or more points. Each of the Spurs last 6 losses have come by 7 or more points. San Antonio shot a ridiculous 57% from the field in Game 6. The last 7 times the Spurs are off a game where they shot 48% or better from the field, they've gone 1-6 ATS in their next game. You can see whey the odds strongly favor a solid home win for the Nuggets in this win. 10* DENVER

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - Too little respect being given to the Sixers here. Yes they went just 1-3 in the regular season series between these teams but this is a different team with all hands on deck and playing the way they're playing right now. Philadelphia didn't have Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris all season long as those guys were acquired during the season. Additionally, Joel Embiid will be playing here for sure and he joins Jimmy Butler and JJ Redick to give the Sixers a very impressive starting five. Additionally, Boban Marjanovic was also acquired during the season and gives Philly a big man off the bench. The 76ers got their wake-up call in Game 1 against the Nets and then won 4 straight games. Speaking of Game 1 significance, the Raptors are 2-14 SU all-time in Game Ones of a playoff series. Considering that poor record as well, I'll gladly grab the Sixers plus the significant points as this line opened up at a 5.5 and is now a 6.5 as of early game day morning. Give me the undervalued underdog here. 8* PHILADELPHIA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #534 Friday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 10:05 ET - With their upset loss at home on Wednesday, the Warriors are now just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. Golden State continues to be over-valued and now they are laying double digits on the road in a game where the Clippers absolutely will not quit. Once again it is "win or go home" for Los Angeles and I look for another huge effort here just like we saw in Game 5. The Clippers are 13-7 ATS when trailing in a playoff series and that includes a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. In Friday games this season LA is 10-4 ATS (including 12-2 SU). Though I don't another outright upset tonight I am fully expecting that the Clippers stay within single digits in this one. Keep in mind, after the Clips got blown out in Game 1 of this series, 3 of the last 4 games have been decided by single digits. This one will be too. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #525 Thursday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Spurs are not the team they use to be and that fact continues to show in the post-season results. San Antonio has lost 11 of its last 14 playoff games, got eliminated from the playoffs in the first round last season, and is about to suffer that same fate this season. Yes, the Spurs have home court on their side in this Game 6 but I love the fact that is allowing us to get the Nuggets +3 in this one. Denver has not only won the last two games (including Game 4 in SA), they've dominated as they've won each of the last two games by double digits. Keep in mind, the Spurs have not held the Nuggets below 108 points in ANY of the last 4 games. Conversely, San Antonio has been held to 105 points or less in 4 of the 5 games. It is easy to see which team is executing better and I look for Denver to close this out tonight but am happy to grab the 3 points as added "insurance" in this one. The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS this season when off a game in which they held their opponent to 90 points or loss. The Spurs are 11-17 ATS when they enter a game having allowed 105 points or more in 3 straight games. Simply put, San Antonio hasn't been able to get stops when they need them throughout the majority of this series. That problem continues to ail them tonight. 10* DENVER

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Jazz played much better defense at home than they did in the first two games of this series at Houston. Look for Utah to carry over that strong play to this game. Keep in mind, the Jazz lost Game 3 by only 3 points and then won Game 4 by double digits. Their confidence is growing with each game and the Rockets are now going to be in a fierce war to try and put this team away. The Jazz are 14-6 SU their last 20 games and 4 of the 6 losses have come by 6 points or less. That means if you had Utah +7 or more in their last 20 games you would have cashed 90% of your bets! The point being that, despite how the first two games of this series played out, the Jazz are not an easy team to blowout. With the strong defense expected to continue here, I look for Utah to hang tough with the Rockets throughout Game 5. The Jazz are getting more points tonight (8 or 8.5) than they did in the first two games of this series (6.5) and this is even though they are playing their best basketball of the series right now. I am grabbing the added value and expecting an absolute war tonight that ends up being decided by just a single possession or two at the most when the final horn sounds. 10* UTAH

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 3:35 ET - This is an early start time (12:35 PM PT) and the Warriors haven't been at their best in these types of games this season. In fact, Golden State is 2-8 ATS in Sunday games this season while the Clippers have gone 10-5 ATS in Sunday games this season. After LA got thoroughly embarrassed on their home floor in Thursday's action, they've now had two full off days to think about it and build up their intensity for Game 4. I look for a huge effort from the Clippers as the Warriors are unlikely to shoot better than 70% in the first quarter like they did in the big Game 3 win. Going further back, Golden State is 11-23 ATS in their last 34 Sunday games so this hasn't been just a one-season trend for them. Perhaps too many weekend distractions for the best team in the NBA is the culprit but whatever the theory it is not a trend I will ignore. I also love the fact this line is climbing up close to a full 10 points because I know the Clippers aren't going to lay down here. They're going to be going hard for the full 48 and if they fall short I expect it to be just single digits! 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #566 Sunday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 1:05 ET - The Pacers are looking to avoid the sweep and certainly don't want to get knocked out of the playoffs on their home floor via a sweep. Even with winning their last two road games, the Celtics are still only 8-7 SU in road games since the All-Star break. Indiana is 26-10 SU in their last 36 home games. In other words, a bounce back is likely here for the Pacers  Entering a game off exactly 3 straight non-covers, that is a situation that has happened 6 times this season and, in 4 of those 6 occurrences, the Pacers covered the 4th game. Look for that trend to continue here and I expect the outright upset but am happy to take the added point spread value here as a line that opened up around a pick'em now has Indiana catching 3 points on their home floor! The Pacers are 9-3 SU and ATS this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. 8* INDIANA 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #552 Friday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - The Magic have had two full days of rest to ponder getting blasted at Toronto in Game 2 of this series. Orlando, previous to the ugly loss Tuesday, had won 12 of its last 14 games prior to the Game 2 loss. Also, the Magic are certainly happy to be back at home where, since January 31st, they have won 13 of their last 14 games including 9 straight. Yes they played some weaker foes in that stretch but the victories included wins over 4 playoff teams including the 76ers and Warriors. At the very least the Magic have earned some confidence based on their home performance the past 2 and 1/2 months! Orlando also is 15-5 ATS this season versus Atlantic Division foes. The Raptors are still just 7-10 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record and also 5-11 ATS in Friday games this season. Even including Tuesday's blowout win, this is a Toronto team that is just 9-13 SU and ATS in playoff games. The line opened up at a 4 on this one but has moved to a 5 as the Raptors have the attention of the market. That means even more value with a Magic team that is going to be very tough to put away on their home floor and has a great shot at the upset! They will respond after Tuesday's ugly loss. 10* ORLANDO

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers destroyed the Nets in the second half of Game 2. That has set the tone for the rest of this series. Brooklyn embarrassed Philly on their home court in Game 1. Now the Sixers will be looking to return the favor as the series shifts north. The extra rest helps Philadelphia as Joel Embiid continues to battle with knee issues. Considering he only logged 21 minutes in Game 2 and that game took place on Monday, he is likely to be very strong for Game 3 on Thursday. Also, his back-up Boban Marjanovic had a very solid Game 2 and that is a good sign for the 76ers. Note that Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in first round playoff games and this line is only a 2.5 so any SU win likely to lead to a point spread cover as well. Brooklyn, of course, would love to bounce back here but the Nets are 2-6 SU and ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 22 of the Nets last 23 losses have come by 3 or more points. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Wednesday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers scored 8 points in the 3rd quarter Sunday and still almost covered the spread. Indiana made a TOTAL of 8 field goals in the 2nd half Sunday and still almost covered the spread. You get my point. That was UGLY basketball and yet Boston still barely covered the spread. That line, just like this one, was right around a 7.5 and the Celtics prevailed by 10 despite scoring only 84 points. Note that Indiana's lowest scoring game this season had been 89 points. In other words, had the Pacers simply not scored any less than their worst game so far this season they would have won the game outright by 5 points. Give the Celtics defense some credit for sure but also consider it an aberration for the Pacers offense, a one-off if you will. In other words, look for a huge bounce back tonight. Indiana is angry, embarrassed, and they will be on the attack tonight and score much, much better. The Pacers are a long-term 22-11 ATS (including 7-3 ATS this season) when playing with revenge for a road loss by a double digit margin. Indiana is also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 April games and 29-16 ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Boston is 21-32 ATS (including 7-12 ATS this season) as a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Overall, the Celtics had failed to cover 8 STRAIGHT home games prior to their miracle comeback and cover from a double digit half-time deficit in Game One. It is payback time for the Pacers and, even if they fall short of the outright upset, they'll stay inside this number. 10* INDIANA

Zig Zag Best Bet - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The zig zag theory is one that often applies come playoff time in the NBA and that is the theory I am using to our advantage here. The fact is the markets often react greatly to the prior game in a series and when the markets zig I often like to zag and go the other way when the situation is right because we're getting extra value. That is precisely the situation here. Yes the Raptors are in bounce back mode and I do expect them to find a way to get the SU win here but I don't expect it to come by a significant margin. The fact is that Orlando has been one of the hottest teams in the league dating back to late January. The Magic have been shooting the ball very well and are playing with a ton of confidence. When you get a team like that getting double digits (by the way this line has gone from opening at 8.5 in some shops to now as 10.5 in some shops) this fits the very definition of a high value dangerous dog. Orlando will be playing in Toronto for the 3rd time already this month and 4th time since late February so they're certainly getting more and more comfortable playing here. As for confidence level, the Magic are actually 3-2 SU versus the Raptors this season and one of those two losses came by just 2 points. The other one came by a dozen points but Orlando actually had 9 more shots from the field than Toronto did but yet lost by 12 because the Raptors hit an insane 19 of 37 three pointers. Again, you can see why I am seeing value signs flashing here when we can get Orlando plus double digit points given all of the above factors. Toronto is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games and also 2-6 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series! The Magic are 13-4 ATS their last 17 games against teams with a winning record and also 15-4 ATS this season against Atlantic Division opponents. Grab the undervalued big dog in this one. 10* ORLANDO

Rise of the Fallen - Rickenbach NBA Game #522 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 8 ET - After being embarrassed in Game 1 and ruthlessly criticized as the most unacceptable effort of any team so far in this post-season, the 76ers respond Monday. The reason you're seeing this line exactly where it was at for Game 1 is because the odds makers are expecting the same thing that sharp bettors, the Sixers will respond in a big way here. If you look at the box score from Saturday's ugly home loss for Philadelphia, you'll see that the Nets and Sixers each took about 25 three-pointers. The difference? Brooklyn made 11 of theirs and the 76ers made a paltry 3 of theirs...on their home floor no less! The point is that this is a 24 point difference. If you assume the teams just shot equally from beyond the arc in Game 1 the Sixers win the game by a 15-point margin. Philly won the rebounding battle and also got to the line more - 16 more free throw attempts than the Nets. Back to the 3 point shooting, note that the Nets shot 35% from three point land this season while the Sixers shot 38% from beyond the arc in their home games. In other words, you can see just how unlikely those disparate 3-point shooting stats were in Game 1. Philly is a long-term 38-19 ATS when revenging a home loss and that includes 7-3 ATS this season! The Nets are 8-17 SU when they enter a game on an under streak of 3 or more consecutive unders. That SU record is noteworthy here as the Nets last 22 losses have featured 18 by 8 or more points. In other words, when Brooklyn loses they normally lose big and I expect that to prove to be the case again today. Payback time! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs @ Miami Marlins @ 1:10 ET - The Phillies got trounced 10-3 yesterday by one of the worst teams in baseball. Look for a respond today. The Marlins are 6-15 when off a game in which they scored 10 or more runs. Don't be surprised if the bats return to their normal struggling ways. Miami caught lightning in a bottle yesterday and everything went their way as they totaled more hits in that game than in their 4 prior games COMBINED! The Phillies of course are a pricey money line favorite here but that is why I am going with the run line here. Philadelphia has to win by 2 or more runs to cash the ticket but note that 6 of their 8 wins have come by a multiple run margin. As for the Marlins, 8 of their 11 losses have come by 2 or more runs. Vincent Velasquez is off a solid start versus the Nationals and he is 4-2 with a 3.18 ERA against Miami the past 3 seasons. He held the Marlins to a .219 batting average and averaged 1 strikeout per inning in those outings and those Miami lineups were stronger than this season's version. As for the Marlins starter today, Jose Urena is off to a rough start this season and it is a long-term trend of his with poor early-season outings. Urena is now 0-7 with a 5.97 ERA in his March and April starts cumulatively. The Phillies are 29-14 long-term as a favorite of -150 or more. Also, the Phils are 3-1 this season when off a loss. Look for a big bounce back effort here as their long-term domination of the Marlins resumes. 8* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Sunday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 1 ET - The Pacers, of course, are without Victor Oladipo but that has been the situation since late January so they have already adjusted. As for the Celtics, they just lost Marcus Smart to an oblique injury and he'll miss this series entirely. Additionally, Boston's Jaylen Brown continues to deal with back spasms. The Pacers lost here by just 2 points two weeks ago but then last week the Celtics pounded them at Indiana. However, the Pacers were missing guard Darren Collison for that game and he is back now. Even though Boston only went 7-6 down the stretch, Indiana did even worse by going 4-9. That allowed the Celtics to overtake the Pacers and have the home court edge in this series. However, Indiana knows they can take it back with just one win here in Boston. Yesterday we saw 3 of the 4 road dogs not even cover but win the game outright to open up their first round playoff series. I would not be surprised to see the same thing here. The Pacers are on a 7-2 ATS run in playoff games. The Celtics went 6-12 ATS this season as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Boston wasn't playing well enough in the latter part of the season to justify laying 7 points here. The Pacers nearly beat them here March 29th and the Celtics had Smart for that game. When you can grab a sizable dog that has a great shot at the outright upset you do it. That is the case here. 8* INDIANA

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 2:30 ET - With the news that Joel Embiid is doubtful for this game, great line value for the Sixers has been created. They are laying a short number here considering they absolutely coasted down the stretch, rested guys, didn't play defense, and the list goes on. Watch what happens today now that the games actually matter again, they are at home, and the other 4 starters will all be on the floor. Butler, Simmons, Harris and Redick form quite a grouping of talent even if Embiid does not play. Also the pick up of big man Boban Marjanovic has truly proven to be a big addition with Embiid's ongoing knee and back issues. Boban Marjanovic is quite the presence in the paint. Brooklyn had a losing record on the road this season plus went 19-35 SU as an underdog this season. From a SU perspective, the 76ers (31-10 SU at home) certainly should win this game. What about the spread though? Consider that Philly is on a 4-1 ATS run in first round playoff games. Also, the Nets last 22 losses have featured 18 by 8 or more points. In other words, when Brooklyn loses they normally lose big and I expect that to prove to be the case again today. Great line value here as this line has dropped from a 7.5 to a 5.5 and, honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Embiid does get some minutes in this game. But even without him, the Sixers are the much better team than the Nets and they defend home court here, literally! Look for a much better effort from the 76ers defense than what you've been seeing late in the regular season. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Game #52 Friday 8* Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line -1.5 goals (+) vs Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:05 ET - To get the best team in the league at plus money in a bounce back game on home ice is something I won't pass up on. While it is true that the Bolts have to win this game by at least 2 goals for us to cash our ticket it is also true that a blowout is likely here. The Lightning were up 3-0 on the Blue Jackets after one period Wednesday. Early in the 2nd period they had two chances within the first minute to make it a 4-0 game. However, Columbus goalie Sergei Bobrovsky got a big stop on a 2 on 0 breakaway and then he got some puck luck as a shot rang off the post. The score remained 3-0 and the Blue Jackets still had life. They took advantage and rallied for the win. Now, down 1-0 in this series on home ice, Tampa Bay will be absolutely relentless tonight and I do not see them being denied. That said, note that of the 13 losses the Blue Jackets have had since February 1st, 11 have come by a margin of 2 or more goals. Of the 13 wins that the Lightning have since March 1st, 9 have come by a victory margin of 2 or more goals. This one will too. 8* TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING Puck Line

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #920 Thursday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Run Line -1.5 runs vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:10 ET - Even including their surprising 7-5 win to open up this series Tuesday, the Blue Jays are hitting just .193 thus far on the season. They were projected to be a bad team entering this season and they are living up to it so far. What was not expected was for the Red Sox to also be struggling early this season. But, keep in mind, the World Champs began the season with a tough West Coast road trip. Finally Tuesday was their first home game of the season. The fact they lost that game only strengthens the likelihood of a dominating Red Sox win here after yesterday's off-day. Of course I would never lay 2 to 1 odds on the money line but where we get value here is with the run line. Boston is available at even money by laying the 1.5 runs. I am aware that Aaron Sanchez is off to a strong start this season but he faced the Indians and Tigers. Each of those teams is hitting below .200 so far this season! Also, when Sanchez pitched at Fenway Park early last season in May he gave up 7 earned runs in just 5 innings. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi hasn't made a start against the Blue Jays since 2016. This is a big edge for him as there is a lack of familiarity for the Toronto hitters. Of course their roster has change a lot since then too and their current roster is a combined 1 for 16 against Eovaldi! Look for a dominating home win here (keep in mind Red Sox were best hitting team in MLB last year) and play the run line here. 10* BOSTON Run Line -1.5 runs

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Tuesday 8* Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The Raptors are going to the post-season of course and the Wolves are not. Toronto also has been playing much better than Minnesota has. However, this is the Raptors last game of the regular season and they are locked into the #2 spot in the Eastern Conference. Of course Toronto would like to close the regular season with a win and wants to continue to play well. However, the last thing they want is to get anyone injured in this game. Of course Minnesota has no concerns about that and I expect them to go very hard in what is their final home game of the season. The Timberwolves are off a poor effort on defense that cost them in a 6-point home loss to Oklahoma City Sunday. I expect Minnesota to respond here in what is their last chance to get a win for the home fans. Many will likely be surprised to hear this (and I am aware that Minnesota is a different team now than earlier in the season) but the Wolves 25-15 home record is identical to the Raptors 25-15 road record. In other words, and especially given the situation, should Toronto really be laying 7 here? Absolutely not! Give me the home dog in this one! 8* MINNESOTA 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #504 Tuesday 8* Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The line on Charlotte has gone from as low as a -6 to as high as a -8 and that makes sense for multiple reasons. The Hornets need to win for playoff reasons, Cleveland has lost 9 straight games, and Charlotte has won 3 straight games. However, the key reason it doesn't make sense is a mediocre Hornets team is laying a big number on the road against a Cavaliers playing their final game of the season and the Cavs are at home. I don't see Cleveland laying down in a situation like this as they also can play the role of spoiler here. Additionally, Charlotte is banged up right now. The home team has won all 3 games this season and each win has come by double digits. While I don't necessarily see the Cavs winning this one at home by double digits I also certainly don't foresee a full reversal and the Hornets winning this by double digits on the road. In other words, look for a dog fight to the finish in this one. Charlotte is 5-14 ATS (including 1-3 ATS this season) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in Tuesday games this season and will go hard for the home fans in their final game of the season. 8* CLEVELAND

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #914 Tuesday 8* Boston Red Sox Run Line -1.5 vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 2:05 ET - Both these teams are 3-8 this season but these teams are truly at opposite ends of the spectrum. The Blue Jays are likely headed for a miserable season and adjusting to a new manager. Of course the Red Sox are the defending World Champs and their season got off to a tough start due to a West Coast trip that included battling with a red hot Mariners lineup. The last team to get a home game this season is Boston and it comes this afternoon at Fenway Park. There is a reason this game is priced so high on the money line which, by the way, I would never lay that price range on any game. Where we have value though is with the run line. Yes the Red Sox need to win by 2 or more runs but are lay amount is reduced to a normal price range of -115. Three of the Blue Jays four road losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. Toronto has not scored more than two runs in any of their four road games. Boston southpaw Chris Sale is 7-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in his 12 career starts against the Blue Jays. Toronto's Matt Shoemaker is off to a surprisingly strong start this season but he faced two of the worst teams in baseball, the Tigers and Orioles. The last time Shoemaker started at Fenway Park he allowed 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. Boston is 43-12 as a home favorite in a range of -175 to -250. The Red Sox are 38-13 in Tuesday games. Toronto is 9-22 as a road underdog of +175 to +250. The Blue Jays are 34-63 against left-handed starters. 8* BOSTON -1.5 RUNS

The Game Top Play - Rickenbach CBB Game #811 Monday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 9:20 PM ET - As I wrote in my analysis that accompanied my selection on the Red Raiders over Michigan State Saturday, this Texas Tech team is for real and has the stifling defense and enough senior presence (half of their playing rotation) to get the job done here! With their win over the Spartans, the Red Raiders are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games that have had a line in single digits. Two great defenses but the Cavaliers have been so fortunate in this tournament I feel it comes to an end here. Lightning usually doesn't strike twice but it has for the Cavs. After their lucky win (and insane cover!) over Purdue where they were fortunate the game even went to OT, Virginia dodged another bullet with the insane finish in a win over Auburn. This Red Raiders team won't make the same "end game mistakes" that the Tigers did. First off, when you're ahead by 4 and don't at least get a hand up on a guy shooting a 3 that is their hottest shooter with 20 seconds to go you have made a huge mistake. Then, with a 2 point lead and the clock winding down to the final second you do make a run at a guy shooting a 3 and end up getting your body into him? Players fault or the fault of the coach? Either way you won't see the same mistakes with this Texas Tech team. The Red Raiders have proven to be incredibly focused throughout this tourney and I just don't see them being denied. Look for them to get an early jump on the Cavaliers here and then their stifling defense does the rest as Virginia can't quite climb back! Remember the scoring drought the Cavs had late in the game against Auburn? I mentioned that could be an issue in my write-up (had Tigers plus points over Cavaliers) and the fact is those types of scoring droughts continue to be an issue for this Virginia team. That will eventually be the straw that breaks the camels back as the saying goes. It hasn't happened yet but, like I said above, it is rare enough for lighting to strike twice in same place and even more rare to happen 3 times in a row. The Cavs are a great team don't get me wrong but, so too are the Red Raiders, but the luck the Cavaliers have had to even get here is unreal. Just like when I faded Duke after their insanely tight win, I'll fade Virginia again here as the REd Raiders improve to 12-0 ATS L12 games with a line in single digits. 10* TEXAS TECH

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #578 Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - The first number that popped up off shore on this one Saturday afternoon had the Celtics favored by 6.5 and it has dropped to as low as a 4.5 as of early Sunday morning. This is offering us great line value here with Boston at home as Orlando is currently getting a little too much respect. The Magic are off a blowout win but it came against an Atlanta team that decided just to "go through the motions" on Friday. Orlando took advantage on their home floor. But now the Magic are on the road and facing a Boston team that, as usual, has been strong at home this season. Also, the Celtics are motivated here as they look to lock up the home seed for their upcoming first round series with the Pacers. Orlando is only 15-24 on the road this season and the Celtics are 28-12 at home on the season. Each of the last 7 losses for the Magic have come by 5 or more points with each of the last 6 coming by 8 or more points. 10 of the Celtics last 12 wins have come by 5 or more points. The home team is 12-4 ATS in Orlando's last 16 games. The Magic have been hot but the Celtics are also heating up, including Gordon Hayward, and they've won 5 of their last 6 games. 10* BOSTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 8:50 PM ET - My selection here involving the Spartans game actually has a lot to do with their in-state rival, the Wolverines. Strange, right? But let me explain. First off when the Spartans play Michigan it is a big deal of course. This season, Michigan State faced Michigan 3 times and won 3 hard-fought games. The key? They are 0-3 ATS in their game that followed the Wolverines. How does that relate here? The Spartans are off a very hard-fought win over Duke which they viewed as their road-block to the Championship. In other words, beat the Blue Devils and win it all. Texas Tech may have something to say about that first but before moving along to the Red Raiders, let me finish by saying that the only bigger opponent for Michigan State this season than Michigan was Duke and you could see the huge emotion for the Spartans after that game. Look for another flat performance off such a huge, emotional win. Now comes the other key part of how Michigan ties into this one. The Wolverines had a tremendous team this season and are very well coached. That Michigan team just faced the Red Raiders last week and the Wolverines didn't score their 20th point until they were 5 minutes into the 2nd half! Texas Tech absolutely dominated them and I am not saying they will do the same thing to Michigan State but I am saying the Red Raiders get the upset here. I personally bet the money line on this game but certainly I would recommend you grab the points for added insurance. However, this Texas Tech team is for real and has the stifling defense and enough senior presence (half of their playing rotation) to get the job done here! The Red Raiders are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games that had a line in single digits. Two great defenses but the Spartans feel like they won the Championship already after beating Duke while the Red Raiders are still fully focused here and get an early jump on the Spartans here and then their defense does the rest as the Spartans can't quite climb back! 10* TEXAS TECH

NBA TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers, of course, have some injury/rest concerns as they try and get prepared for the playoffs. However, their inexcusable loss to the Bucks (Philly led by 5 with just a couple minutes left) has resulted in the Sixers FIRST 3-game losing streak of this entire season. Of course it is a bad time to be cold and they know it. They will respond here and, as far as whom sits and whom plays for the Sixers, note that the Bulls are also ravaged by injuries. Chicago is off an upset in at Washington as roughly a double digit dog too. How did they do it? The Wizards played like they didn't care and the Bulls (even with many unknown players) shot a ridiculous 61% from two-point land. I will challenge them to do that again here as they take on a very hungry 76ers team that certainly is in a much different situation than that of the Wizards. This Philly teams needs a win and needs to get their confidence and swagger back so I don't expect them to take their foot off the gas here. Keep in mind, the Sixers also are now in need of at least one win to lock down the #3 seed they've worked so hard for. Plenty of motivation here and don't let the big spread scare you. Philly, finally, goes the full 48 minutes in this one! They have two days off after this so the 76ers will NOT hold back. The Bulls are 14-25 ATS at home this season. Chicago is also 6-11 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. Also, the Bulls most recent loss came by 8 points but 6 of the prior 8 came by 9 or more points and this one has double digit blowout written all over it. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #803 Saturday 8* Auburn Tigers (+) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 6:10 ET - You saw what happened to Duke last week. After surviving in essentially miracle fashion, the Blue Devils luck ran out. If there was ever a win (in such a big game) luckier than the one the Cavs just had last week against Purdue I'd like to see it. It was a miracle enough that they won the game as they were very fortunate it even got to OT but what was even more miraculous (or sickening if you were holding a Purdue +4.5 ticket like me) was that they got the cover in OT. The Cavaliers got that cover very late too. In other words, the cover came out of nowhere. Similar to how I faded Duke (with Michigan State) after a miracle win I am doing the same thing here with Auburn over Virginia as this Tigers team is about as dangerous of a team as you can face right now. The fact is that Bruce Pearl's team is really starting to believe in themselves now and confidence is key when you're a three point shooting team. This team lives and dies with the three and they showed me a lot in the win over Kentucky as the Tigers finally had a rougher shooting game with the three ball but were just hot enough at the right times to gut out a win. That makes them very dangerous here. With the time off between games there could be some rust with the outside shooting early and, I would not be surprised if it is the Cavs with the half-time lead but eventually I expect Auburn to be in line for the upset win here. I am grabbing the points as, if they do fall short, I expect it to be by only one or two possessions (at most). Virginia hasn't covered B2B games since early March and the Cavaliers last two covers have only covered by a combined 2 points! The Cavs luck runs out here as Auburn continues playing the "us against the world" them as a #5 seed that continues to surprise. The Tigers are on 12-game winning streak and feel like they can beat anyone. We've seen the Cavaliers offense go through some rough stretches at times. That will prove to be their undoing here as they'll be in a war in the second half just to try to win (let alone cover) this one. 8* AUBURN

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #557 Saturday 8* Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 5:05 ET - Not only are the Bucks off a miracle cover at Philadelphia Thursday (they were -5.5 and won by 6 despite being down by 5 with just a couple minutes left in game), it is also true that Milwaukee could care or less about this game. The Bucks have already locked up the #1 seed for the post-season in the Eastern Conference. They want to stay in rhythm but they also want to avoid injury. Even if they do get up by double digits in this game (which I honestly do not expect) the back door would be wide open for the Nets to come back as, again, there just isn't motivation here for Milwaukee. As for Brooklyn, there is some motivation as they've lost all 3 games with the Bucks by a double digit margin this season. Look for this one to be much closer than the other 3 given the situation. Also, Milwaukee is 2-7 ATS this season in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230. The Nets are 9-4 ATS this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games and they get the cash again here. 8* BROOKLYN

SE Div GOY - Rickenbach NBA Game #535 Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - This is one of those beautiful late season situations simply too good to pass up on. The Magic control their own destiny because if they win out they are in the post-season. However, they now host a divisional foe that would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler here. Keep in mind, even without big man Dewayne Dedmon, the Hawks continue to look strong! Atlanta has won 5 of its last 7 SU and also gone 6-1 ATS during this stretch. They are relishing the role of spoiler and truly fit the bill as a dangerous dog in a spot like this. All the pressure is on the Magic here and when a team starts to feel pressure that is when they start losing their shooting touch. This line has gone from as low as a -6 yesterday afternoon all the way up to as high as a -9 early this morning. Of course bettors love to bet the teams that "need to win" and yet that so often proves to be the WRONG thing to do and I fully expect that will be the case again tonight. The Magic are going to have a fight on their hands with the Hawks who continue to scratch, flight, and claw their way to gritty victories and covers. With Trae Young dominating the backcourt and John Collins getting it done in the frontcourt, the Hawks have proven to be a handful for playoff-bound teams like the 76ers and Spurs. Perhaps Atlanta falls short of the upset tonight but, if they do, I expect them to lose this game by only a possession or two so the points should prove to be more than enough here for the cover! The Hawks also are 11-6 ATS their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. The Magic are 3-11 ATS (and only 5-9 SU) in Friday night games this season. Upset alert! 10* ATLANTA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #526 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers have been resting Joel Embiid and that could be the case again tonight plus Jimmy Butler is a question mark too. Of course this is why you're seeing the Bucks favored by as much as 5.5 in this one as of Thursday morning when lines first popped up again on this after it was off the board. Philadelphia is off back to back losses but the Sixers are 6-0 SU this season when they enter a game off B2B losses. You read that right...Philly has NOT lost three straight games yet this season and yet they are a 5.5 point home dog here. I'll take it! Yes the Bucks are a great team but Philly isn't just going to lay down here at home. Also, the Sixers cupboard certainly is far from bare if they decide to rest 1 or 2 players tonight. The Bucks have lost 5 of their last 8 road games SU. Also, the Bucks depth has been impacted by a slew of injuries lately. The Sixers won and covered the most recent meeting in Milwaukee as well as each of the last two meetings in Philly and I look for more of the same here. I do expect the outright win but am grabbing the points for added "insurance" here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #728 Thursday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns (-) vs Lipscomb Bisons @ 7 ET - Hats off to Lipscomb for making it this far but they aren't facing Wichita State tonight. They are facing a Big 12 team that has shown, when it wants to, it can play great basketball on both ends of the floor. The Shockers, inexcusably, blew a late double digit lead against the Bisons on Tuesday. As a result, Lipscomb instead of Wichita State is here tonight and now we can take advantage of the betting markets infatuation with a Bisons team that hails from a conference that is nowhere near the talent level of the Big 12. Teams like Lipscomb can go on tourney runs and look great in doing so but how many times do you remember a team like this hoisting a championship trophy? Maybe for the CIT or CBI Tourney, yes. But when it comes to the Big Dance (NCAA) or the 2nd best tourney in the nation (NIT) you will see from looking at the list of champions they come from bigger conferences than the Atlantic Sun. If this was a smaller tourney like the CBI or CIT I would have some concern about backing the Horns. But on the grand stage of Madison Square Garden, Texas will not be denied here and I love the fact I can get them at -1 this morning. How much difference is there in these two conferences? When the Bisons beat TCU earlier this season in a meaningless non-conference match-up (Horned Frogs would have been much more motivated on a stage like this) that was the FIRST WIN in Lipscomb's last 10 games against a Big 12 team. If TCU was here they would be exacting revenge but that win the Bisons have over the Frogs also only strengthens the fact that Lipscomb has the full attention of the Horns and will be the recipient of the Longhorns "A game" here. Another way to compare these teams: the TOP 5 teams in the Atlantic Sun included North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, and New Jersey Institutional Tech - yes that powerhouse NJIT (tongue in cheek). The TOP 5 teams in the Big 12 - Texas Tech, Kansas State, Kansas, Baylor, and Iowa State. This line is roughly a pick'em and I don't see the Longhorns being denied here. They beat them by 23 points last season and the Bisons haven't improved THAT much in one year nor have the Horns fallen THAT much in one year. It was no fluke either as the Horns won the first half by 14 and second half by 9. They dominated the game. I can see Lipscomb putting a scare into Texas and hanging around for awhile but eventually the difference in talent level will be evident and the Longhorns will pull away. 10* TEXAS 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Wednesday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:05 ET - At first glance one would have to question how can the Wizards (eliminated from post-season contention and just terminated the team president) be favored by double digits over anyone. Well, against these Bulls it actually makes perfect sense! Chicago is expected to again be without their 4 leading scorers and they account for about 70 points per game for the Bulls! Of course this is too much to overcome and that was proven when they lost to the lowly Knicks in their most recent game. Chicago is currently putting a team on the floor filled with inexperienced players who are trying to adjust to the NBA game. Conversely, though Washington is also "getting a look" at players for next season, the Wizards younger players are thriving. Washington just won at Denver and got strong contributions from a number of players. The Wizards are playing hard and have won 3 straight games ATS and they rallied from a 15 point and then allowed just 28 second half points to the Nuggets on Sunday. Though just returning from a road trip out west, the fact that the Wizards have had two full off days to prep for this game means they'll be ready and I expect them to dominate on their home floor. Washington will take advantage of a very short-handed Bulls team. Chicago has failed to cover 3 in a row and I foresee the Wizards improving to 4-0 ATS their last 4 games with a dominating home win. 10* WASHINGTON

Puck Line #1 Top Game - Rickenbach NHL Game #66 Tuesday Dallas Stars Puck Line -1.5 goals +145 vs Philadelphia Flyers @ 8:35 ET - The Stars are highly motivated here. The Flyers could care less. Dallas is still trying to secure a playoff spot and if the Stars were a division rival of Philly or, at the very least, an Eastern Conference foe, the Flyers might care. However, sitting in the Western Conference, Philadelphia could care or less about this game. Their season ended with a late slump that left them on the outside looking in and the losses are now piling up. The Flyers have lost 7 of their last 10 games. Of course this is why the Stars are nearly 2 to 1 favorites on the money line in this game. There is no value in that play. Where there is value is on the puck line. Instead of laying 2 to 1 odds on Dallas just to win, which I certainly would never do, you can lay 1.5 goals on the Stars on the puck line and get nearly a +150 return! Now that is value especially when you consider that when the Flyers have lost recently it is generally an ugly loss. 10 of Philly's last 12 losses have come by a margin of at least two goals! Dallas is off a loss to the Canucks but that was on the road. The Stars two prior wins came by just a single goal but those were also on the road. Now back at home I look for a blowout win and prior to the aforementioned 3 games, note that Dallas had seen EACH of their last 5 wins come by two or more goals and, in fact, the average margin of the 5 victories was THREE goals! Two months ago these teams met in Philly and Dallas lost despite a 38 to 22 edge in shots on goal. On Tuesday night, the Stars get payback in a home rout. 10* DALLAS -1.5 goals +145

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #580 Tuesday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:05 ET - Perfect spot for a contrarian play. We get a little extra value here because the Lakers have surprisingly won 4 of their last 5 SU and are on a 5-0 ATS run. The Thunder have been struggling. The key here is OKC is at home and angry due to losing 7 of their last 9 games. Also, this is a home revenge spot for Oklahoma City as they lost as a host versus the Lakers in January. The Thunder lost that game by double digits despite being a double digit favorite! Payback comes big tonight! OKC is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS on the season when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. The Lakers are 9-18 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The recent wins for Los Angeles all have come against below .500 teams. They face a much different "animal" tonight and that "animal" is angry and seeking revenge. This will be a home blowout. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY

NW Div #1 Top Game - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Monday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - Great line value here with the Trail Blazers coming off a loss. Yes the Timberwolves recently upset Golden State but that certainly has been the exception rather than the norm for this slumping Minnesota team. Other than that win, the Wolves have won just 1 of their last 8 games and that victory came against lowly Memphis. Now Minnesota is hosting a Trail Blazers team that is angry off a loss and won't lack for focus here. Keep in mind the Blazers lost at Minnesota early this season so they'll be ready to exact road revenge here. Yes, Portland has won their two home match-ups with the Timberwolves this season but now it is time for road payback for that loss in mid-November. As mentioned above, the Blazers enter this game off a loss but, prior to that defeat, they had won 9 of their last 10 games. Yes, Portland is without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic but that is factored into this line. The fact is that the Wolves are without a number of players too as they enter this match-up and this is simply a matter of the much better in a great spot (off a loss) facing a team that has faded down the stretch run. The result is great line value with the short road favorite. Minnesota is 2-5 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. The Blazers are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record and roll again here. Each of the Trail Blazers last 28 wins have come by a margin of 4 or more points! Each of the Wolves last 14 losses have come by a margin of 5 or more points. Lay the short number! 10* PORTLAND

CBI #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #701 Monday 10* Top Play DePaul Blue Demons (+) @ South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET - This is the first game of the best out of three CBI Championship Series. Most will look at this game and see the team with the overall better record at home and at roughly a pick'em price and just jump all over the host. Of course that is where contrarian viewpoints become so important. There is a reason this game is priced this way. The Blue Demons play in the Big East. The Bulls play in the American Athletic Conference. As a result of that, as well as the way their non-conference schedules were laid out this season, DePaul has played a tougher strength of schedule than South Florida. Of course that is factored into this line but much of the betting market overlooks that and looks at this one as "easy" to take the Bulls on their home floor. Of course, we all know how that typically plays out when something looks "easy". There is nothing easy in this business and that is why I generally maintain a contrarian viewpoint on games. We have plenty of support for a play on DePaul here. South Florida has won 3 straight games but they previously lost 7 of their last 8. Also, the Bulls have been held to 41% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. The Blue Demons are loaded with confidence right now on the offensive end as they've been shooting lights out. This is particularly true of late but the hot shooting run generally extends all the way back to mid-February. Just as you've seen with Auburn in the Big Dance, when a team gets hot with their shooting they can make a huge run. That is what the Blue Demons have been doing and it continues here. Yes they've been at home so far and now are on the road for this game but the Blue Demons have scored 73 points or more in 5 straight road games! More of the same expected here! 10* DE PAUL

Rematch Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #691 Sunday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 5:05 ET - The Spartans seek revenge for last season's regular season loss to the Blue Devils and, of course, there is much more at stake with this match-up than last season's early season match-up. Michigan State has been dominating of late while the Blue Devils have been just getting by for close wins. What really factors into this is the line value as we're getting 2.5 points as of early Sunday morning and taking a look at Duke's last 14 games as a good sample size reveals a lot. The Blue Devils are 11-3 SU in those 14 games but 5 of the 11 wins have come by 2 or less points. So if you had +2.5 going against the Blue Devils you cashed in about half of their SU wins plus got the outright upset 3 times. Duke, plain and simple, is fortunate to be here. They are on a 3-11 ATS run but continue to attract bets because, well, their Duke! Truly they are a public team and everyone wants to be the #1 seed here and lay a short number. I am expecting an upset however and we've got some great technical support for backing Tom Izzo's team here. Michigan State is 9-2 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. The Spartans are also 11-2 ATS when off a game in which they scored 80 points or more. The Blue Devils are 1-6 ATS their last 7 games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. The Spartans certainly hold the edge in experience and I look for freshman-laden Duke's luck to run out in this one. 10* MICHIGAN STATE 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #681 Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers (+) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 8:50 ET - This line opened around a 4 and got driven up to a 5 on Virginia. Of course that is not a surprise as the Cavaliers are a #1 seed and the Boilermakers weren't supposed to make it this far. Let me remind everyone about an expression that comes to mind with this match-up "when something looks too good to be true..." and you guys know the rest of the words. The point is that it looks so easy to lay small points with the Cavs here but I am not falling for it. This Purdue team is starting to believe and lets not forget the collapses that Virginia has had in the past. There is a lot of pressure on the Cavaliers here while Purdue - of course not expected to win - can simply come in relaxed and just play their game. There is no pressure on the Boilers here. Keep in mind the Boilermakers, in their last two games, have beaten the defending national champs (and beat them soundly!) and then knocked off one of this season's top teams Thursday! As for the Cavaliers, their average line has been -14 so far in this tournament. Now they finally get tested and remember this team has a great defense but has been known to stall offensively and then that is when upsets happen. The Boilers did not play well defensively against the Vols but had held their first two opponents in the Big Dance to just 30% shooting from the field. Purdue is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. Virginia is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games. The Boilermakers are 11-0 SU when off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points! I expect the upset but am grabbing the points. The Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in NCAA Tourney games. 8* PURDUE

NBA TV Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #541 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The markets sometimes help create value where it otherwise should not be and that is the beauty of a situation like this. First off this line was first up at an 8.5 but then got taken down because of Joel Embiid possibly missing this game. Now that it is confirmed that he will sit this game out to get extra rest the line has now plummeted to as low as a 4.5 this morning. The funny thing is did anyone pay attention to last night's games? The 76ers were NOT in action and were resting and getting ready for this game. As for the Wolves they were in the middle of a hard-fought overtime win over the World Champion Warriors last night! So now after knocking off the champs and taking OT to do it, the short-handed Timberwolves (a number of players out recently) are supposed to beat a Sixers team that has man-handled them in recent meetings? Yes I know about the "revenge against Jimmy Butler" angle but Philly is the far superior team and in a much better scheduling situation. This game is set up to be a road rout! Prior to beating GS last night, Minnesota had lost 10 of their 14 prior games. The 76ers enter this game having won 7 of their last 9 games. The Sixers are off a big win over Brooklyn and are 11-4 ATS this season when off a divisional game. The Timberwolves are on a 15-25 ATS run in March games. 10* PHILADELPHIA

March Madness Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #673 Friday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (+) vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7:30 ET - Did you notice yesterday that the lines (compared to seeding) were, as you would expect, very small spreads on the 2 vs 3 match-ups and then, as you would expect, bigger spreads on the 1 vs 4 match-up and 1 vs 12 match-up. That said, why is it that today the biggest seed differential (1 vs 5) has the 3rd smallest spread? Both Michigan State (in a 2 vs 3) and Duke (in a 1 vs 4) have bigger spreads than the North Carolina - Auburn match-up? I'll tell you why. It is because the odds makers are very sharp and they know what their doing here. Don't be fooled by the line. I am expecting a Tigers upset but happy to grab all the points I can get should Auburn fall just short. The fact is that the Tigers live and die with the 3-ball but they have been very hot of late and very consistent and I expect that to be a key to the cover here. Note that Auburn has made 35% or better from 3 point land in 7 straight games. Not only is this all part of an 8-game stretch that has seen the Tigers only be dealt 1 ATS loss, it also holds significance when you look at an interesting not about the Tar Heels. Let's look at North Carolina's last 13 games. UNC went 8-5 ATS in those games. What was the key with the 5 ATS losses? The Tar Heels allowed 35% or better from 3 point land in all 5 ATS defeats! In their 8 ATS wins they held their opponent under 35% in all 8 covers! Now they face an Auburn team that has been red hot from beyond the arc (all on neutral floors too!) and I fully expect the Tigers to give UNC hell from beyond the arc in this one. By the way, North Carolina is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games against SEC opponents. The Tigers are a perfect 3-0 SU in neutral court games with a posted total in the 160s. Upset alert but grab the points for added insurance. 10* AUBURN