The Bengals are better than perceived. They are solid on both sides of the ball without any major weaknesses. 
Cincinnati has been dominant at home going 14-2-1 SU, 13-3-1 ATS. The Bengals draw San Diego traveling from the West Coast with an early start time.
The Chargers are not the complete team Cincinnati is. San Diego has a weak run defense, vulnerable to the inside pounding of Jeremy Hill. They also lack a good pass rush.
Andy Dalton has his full complement of weapons with Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones healthy, unlike last season. 
On offense, the Chargers are without suspended tight end Antonio Gates and injured tackle D.J. Fluker. Melvin Gordon has yet to step up to provide more than a mediocre ground attack in support of Philip Rivers. 

The Steelers are a much better team than San Francisco and catch a huge scheduling break.
The 49ers are off a home win Monday night against the Vikings and now must travel West to East on a short week. The 49ers had a lot to prove against the Vikings - and they did the job. Now they're in a letdown spot. This is an early start time, too, so their biological clocks are going to be off. 
The Steelers have extra rest and preparation time having opened last Thursday. The Steelers outgained the Patriots by 103 yards in their opening week loss. Even without suspended Le'Veon Bell, the Steelers have far more firepower than the 49ers.
Colin Kaepernick has been in steady decline for the past two seasons. Even with his mobility Kaepernick was sacked an NFL-high 52 times last season. The Steelers' defense has a lot of youth. They will improve as the season goes on. The Steelers' defense will look a lot better against the 49ers. 

The Saints are getting by on reputation considering how big of a spread this is.
Truth be told, the Saints' defense is awful again unable to get sacks or takeaways. Their secondary is highly vulnerable due to a cluster injury problem that has eliminated their two best defensive backs.
Drew Brees can't cover this up anymore. Brees is past his prime and has the least effective weapons he's had since being with New Orleans. 
The Saints' home mystique no longer is there either. Not only did the Saints fail to cover in their last five games at the Superdome, but lost each game straight-up. 
Tampa Bay lost to the Saints in overtime and by three points during its two meetings last season. The Buccaneers are better this year. Jameis Winston should play much better this week after enduring butterflies in his first NFL start last Sunday.
Not only is Winston going against a porous secondary, but he's expected to have Mike Evans. Evans missed Week 1, but should be a go this week. He's an elite, tall target. His presence makes Winston better. 

The Eagles certainly looked sharp in preseason steamrolling the Colts, Ravens and Packers. Now looking good during preseason doesn't necessarily equate to an opening week win, but in the Eagles' case it's not a fluke.

Philadelphia has achieved double-digit victories during each of Chip Kelly's first two years. Now, in Year 3 of Kelly's super high octane offense, the Eagles look the best they ever had under Kelly.

The Eagles' defensive front seven has been upgraded, the secondary is fortified with quality depth at the nickel and dime spots and Sam Bradford is the most talented quarterback Kelly has had at Philadelphia. The Eagles also have the finest running back trio of any team led by defending rushing champion DeMarco Murray. 

The Eagles are ready to state their Super Bowl case with an offense that has yet to be stopped. The Falcons don't have nearly the defense to slow down Philadelphia. 

Defensive guru Dan Quinn, formerly the Seahawks defensive coordinator, makes his head coaching debut for Atlanta. Quinn is trying to overhaul the worst defense in the league from a year ago, a defense that recorded only 22 sacks. Quinn is implementing a 4-3 scheme. Atlanta's defense, at best, is a work in progress right now. 

Quinn brings excellent credentials. However, this is way too tough of a test and way too early for the Falcons to show the necessary major defensive steps to stop the Eagles' already-in-sync powerhouse offense that is better with the highly accurate Bradford. 

The Falcons are going to need to trade points with the Eagles, matching them score for score. I don't see Atlanta being able to keep up. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones get a lot of media attention. They are outstanding. I rate Jones as the best wide receiver in the NFC. 

But the Falcons have a very suspect offensive line that also is learning a new system and Atlanta also lacks a polished ground attack. The Eagles' first three running backs - Murray, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles - are all better than anything the Falcons have at running back. 

The Eagles not only hold edges offensively and defensively, but on special teams, too. Atlanta's home field isn't nearly enough to compensate for any of that. The spread is cheap here. Lay it. 

There can be a tendency to overthink sometimes especially in the NFL. This game is an example of this. 
The Bengals are one of the few NFL teams without a glaring weakness. They made the playoffs each of the past four seasons. Their offense should be better this season with a return to health of A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and underrated tight end Tyler Eifert. 
Oakland should be slightly improved this season. But the Raiders are still at least two levels behind the Bengals projected to have the third-fewest victories of any team. 
The Raiders lost six game by 16 or more points last season. Derek Carr has yet to show he's more than just a check down quarterback. Oakland was held to 14 points or fewer in 62 percent of its games last season. 
Bottom line: The Raiders still are short on talent and depth. They simply aren't strong enough to hang within this short point spread of the Bengals. 

The Packers have Jay Cutler's number. Cutler has lost his last seven starts against Green Bay, which has dominated at Solder Field winning 18 of the last 22 times there. The Packers have intercepted Cutler 19 times in 10 games. Cutler has a strong arm and is not without talent, but he's a head case and the Packers are inside his head.
The Packers don't need Jordy Nelson to bury a Bears defense that has ranked among the franchise worst during the past two years. This is saying a lot since Chicago entered the NFL in 1921! 
Chicago has some strong defensive coaches on board now, but they can't fix and rebuild this mess in one year. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has his own system, which he is trying to incorporate. The Bears lack the talent and personnel, however, to make it work. They also are thin at nose tackle with Jeremian Ratliff suspended. 
Green Bay has covered the last five times at Soldier Field and swept the Bears last year winning by an average of 31 points. Except for Nelson, the Packers have all of their offensive starters from last year back. 
The Packers' defense is much better than it looked against the Eagles during their third preseason game. The Bears have a cluster injury wide receiver problem. If Alshon Jeffery plays - which he didn't during all of preseason - his timing with Cutler would be off. The Bears already are down Kevin White and have been without their No. 2 and No. 3 wide receivers, too, as Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson have been hurt. 

When these two teams last met two years ago at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots buried the Steelers, 55-31. That was the most points the Steelers allowed in their 81-year history. 

Tom Brady threw for 432 yards and four touchdowns helping the Patriots pile up a staggering 610 yards. Now it's two years later. And guess what? Pittsburgh's defense is far more inexperienced and worse than what it was in 2013. Troy Polamalu and Dick LeBeau are gone, too. 

The Patriots received a huge mental lift with Brady's suspension overturned, while the Steelers experienced a huge mental jolt after not expecting Brady to see the field. 

It has been a rough off-season and preseason for Pittsburgh. The Steelers lost All-Pro center Maurkice Pouncey with a broken leg. Star running back Le'Veon Bell is suspended. So is promising wide receiver Martavis Bryant. 

The Steelers' defense has looked terrible giving massive indications they are going to struggle. 

This is the 14th opening Thursday kickoff game. The home team has won 11 of the first 13. The Steelers have only covered one of their last nine September games.

New England has a strong offense and a decent-to-good defense. Seattle has the best defense I've seen since the 1985-86 Bears and a mediocre offense with the exception of a top-four running back, Marshawn Lynch, and a big-play quarterback, Russell Wilson, who rates with Aaron Rodgers (when healthy) and Andrew Luck as the only quarterbacks who can beat you three ways - with their arm, brain and feet.
Defense trumps offense even in today's watered-down, skewed-to-the-offense NFL. Seattle held Peyton Manning's record-shattering Broncos offense to eight points in last year's Super Bowl. New England's offense isn't as potent.
Tom Brady is 37 and still good. But he's not in his prime. He hasn't faced a defense this strong all season. Brady, Bill Belichick and the rest of the Patriots also have to deal with the underinflated football issue, which is a huge distraction. Don't expect the Patriots to be the beneficiary of many lucky referee calls.
The betting line is too high on New England right now based on how well the Patriots looked in the AFC title game against the Colts and how bad the Seahawks played against the Packers. No doubt the Seahawks stunk in that game and were lucky to survive.
That was Seattle's bad, turnover-filled game. I don't see it happening twice in a row. Prior to the matchup against the Packers, the Seahawks had given up an average of eight points during their last SEVEN games - all victories by double-digits.
Brady gets all the recognition, but previous to the Packers game it was Wilson who held the highest all-time quarterback rating in the playoffs. Wilson's record versus playoff teams this year is 7-1. The Seahawks are 20-7-1 (74 percent) ATS during their last 28 games versus opponents with a winning record.
Here are my prop recommendations:
Rob Gronkowski UNDER on receiving yards
Props are tilted to the over because the house knows the public wants to root for scoring and big plays. Gronkowski is the best tight end in football. He's going to have a high yardage total attached to him and probably still draw over money so I wouldn't be in a hurry to bet this as it may still go up. The Seahawks, though, are great at stopping tight ends. They have held the opposition's top tight end to an average of 28.1 yards during the last 15 games. The best tight ends they faced during this span were Greg Olsen twice, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Jason Witten and Julius Thomas. Olsen averaged 37 yards a game. Ertz had 39 yards. Kelce was held to 37 yards. Witten managed just 24 yards and Thomas only 17 yards. Thomas was held to just 27 yards in last year's Super Bowl. The Seahawks are so tough against tight ends for several reasons. K.J. Wright probably is the best coverage linebacker in the NFL. Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are the best safety tandem in the NFL if not of all-time. The Seahawks know Gronkowski is the one stud the Patriots have. They are not going to let him beat them.
Shortest Successful Field Goal OVER 24 1/2 yards
Pete Carroll saw first-hand how Mike McCarthy cost Green Bay a victory by taking short field goals and not going for it on fourth down and short. Carroll is a gambler anyways. Bill Belichick also is a gambler. He's also astute enough to not deflate his offense's confidence by settling for a short field goal if a fourth down play deep in Seattle territory is manageable. Belichick knows, too, the Seahawks just couldn't play for a short Brady pass because of power back LeGarrette Blount.
Russell Wilson UNDER rushing yards
Wilson is the best running quarterback in football, a fact not lost on the Patriots. They will have a full-time spy on Wilson in case he breaks containment. Because they have excellent cornerbacks, including shutdown corner Darrelle Revis, the Patriots will be able to play their safeties in the box looking to stop the run first. The Patriots are very familiar, too, with read-option quarterbacks as their AFC East Division was loaded with them - Geno Smith, Ryan Tannehill and E.J. Manuel.
Seattle to record the most quarterback sacks
The Patriots figure to throw more and Brady is far less mobile than Wilson. The Seahawks are not a big blitzing team, but after failing to apply pressure on Aaron Rodgers in their last game they could have some surprise new wrinkles to generate heat.

Andrew Luck doesn't have enough of a supporting cast to pull off a second major road upset. The Patriots are 49-7 (87%) in their last 56 home games. New England also is 17-4 ATS the past 21 times when laying single-digits at Gillette Stadium.
The Ravens were a tough matchup against the Patriots because their strengths matched up against New England's weaknesses. That's not the case here.
The Patriots can be run on and they aren't a great pass blocking team. But the Colts lack talent at running back and don't have any outstanding pass rushers. Indy also doesn't have the Ravens' past success and confidence in facing New England.
The Patriots have played and hosted the Colts three times during the last three years, which has been during the Chuck Pagano/Luck era. New England has won these games by 25, 21 and 22 points this season in a 42-20 victory on Nov. 16. Luck has been picked off eight times in these games.  
Tom Brady is far more accurate than Peyton Manning and Andy Dalton. The Patriots are averaging 40.8 points in their last five meaningful games. They should be good for at least 30 in this one.
New England's defense should be able to find its form against a Colts offense that lacks a ground attack and is fielding a makeshift offensive line that has been through 11 difference combinations with only one lineman starting every game.  

Seattle has the NFL's best defense in nearly 30 years. There is no way the Packers can dent it with Aaron Rodgers on one leg and playing at CenturyLink Field, where the Seahawks are 25-2 SU, 19-7-1 ATS the past three years.
The Seahawks are the hottest team in football playing their best ball with seven consecutive victories and covers. Each win has been by 10 or more points.
The Packers' defense is average at best versus the run and doesn't generate much of a pass rush. The Seahawks can beat Green Bay with Marshawn Lynch on the ground and with Russell Wilson's mobility and decision-making. Green Bay has problems with option-type quarterbacks and hasn't been good on the road. They lost 36-16 to the Seahawks, 19-7 to the Lions and 21-13 to the Bills when they played the three toughest defenses on the road. They also scored only 20 points on the road against two-win Tampa Bay, fell by 21 to the Saints in New Orleans and needed a touchdown with three seconds left to win in Miami.
Green Bay has a losing ATS road mark and averages 21 points away from home compared to averaging 39.7 points during the regulation season at Lambeau Field.

The Broncos rate a level higher than the Colts. Throw in a rested, home-field advantage and I see Denver winning this game by double-digits.
The Colts just have too many weaknesses that the magnificent Andrew Luck can't cover up.
Denver ranks No. 3 in total defense. The Colts are 19th in total defense, giving up 37 more yards per game than Denver despite playing an easier schedule. The Colts won 11 games during the regular season with eight of those victories coming against the Texans, Titans, Jaguars, Redskins and Giants. The combined winning percentage of those teams was 30 percent.
The Colts are not a strong road team just 14-12 SU and ATS during the three-year era of Chuck Pagano and Luck. They are 0-2 in the playoffs and lost on the road this season to the Broncos, Steelers and Cowboys by an average of 15.3 points.
Peyton Manning couldn't match his record 55 touchdowns and 5,477 yards thrown last season. But his 39 touchdown throws this season was one fewer than Luck's league-leading total and he had only 34 fewer passing yards than Luck.
Manning should be much sharper than he has been, too, with an extra week of rest and preparation. Unlike last season, the Broncos have a power ground game to take some of the load off Manning. C.J. Anderson emerged to score eight touchdowns and average 108 yards rushing per game during the last six games.
Denver also has a stronger defense than last season when it reached the Super Bowl. The Colts have gone as far as they can go with a makeshift offensive line, no ground attack and sloppy ball-handling, which has resulted in 17 turnovers during the past seven games.
The Colts aren't playing Andy Dalton here, or any of their AFC South Division patsies. This is a real step-up situation and aside from Luck the Colts don't have the necessary ground game and defense to pass the test.

I give Dallas plenty of credit. But I'm not sold on them. They lack talent on defense and are in a position they haven't been in during their present regime - being asked to cover a touchdown in the playoffs with all the pressure and Super Bowl hype surrounding them.

It's rare to get this many points with a defense as good as Detroit and with as many good skill position players it has.

The key for Dallas is DeMarco Murray. His running sets up Tony Romo and keeps the Cowboys' vulnerable defense off the field. Murray led the NFL in rushing, but he is playing with a surgically repaired hand and had a full workload during the regular season. The Cowboys are playing on short rest this week.

The Lions have the No. 1 run defense giving up less than 70 yards on the ground. Detroit also ranks No. 2 in total defense. Only two teams gave up fewer than the 17.6 points the Lions give up per game. The Lions' secondary is vastly improved.

Matthew Stafford didn't have an outstanding season, but he's a far above average quarterback and has one of the best wide receiving tandems in the NFL with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. Johnson is healthy again making him arguably the best wide receiver in the league. When the teams met last year, Johnson burned the Cowboys for 14 catches for 329 yards operating against the same cornerbacks Dallas has now. Detroit won that game.

Reggie Bush gives Stafford an edge runner and dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield.

OK, factor in three points for home field advantage for Pittsburgh. Le'Veon Bell isn't going to play. Now does that make these teams even?

I say no. The points are worth laying because the Steelers are in much better current form and have the superior quarterback. Baltimore's offense is in a slump, its offensive line is banged-up and its defensive backfield highly vulnerable due to injuries that have wiped out five cornerbacks.

Since beating Pittsburgh at home in Week 2, the Ravens have yet to defeat a foe with a winning record going 0-5.

Ben Roethlisberger is having his finest season. The Steelers average 27.2 points, 411.1 yards and 301.6 yards passing per game. The Ravens can't match that especially on the road where they have a history of playing much worse. Roethlisberger lit them up six touchdown passes in a 43-23 win in early November at Heinz Field.

Even without Bell, Roethlisberger has enough weapons to take advantage of the Ravens' battered, vulnerable secondary. Note, too, that  Bell was averaging just 2.7 yards per rush in his last three games worn down by 373 touches. The Steelers have three running backs with fresh legs who will be made to look good by the Ravens' safeties committing to helping out in the passing game rather than moving up in the box.

Joe Flacco has had one good quarter in his last three games. He needs a good ground attack to be effective. That's not likely to happen. The Steelers have gotten healthier on defense while the Ravens will be without left tackle Eugene Monroe.

Baltimore's only decent running back, Justin Forsett, is worn down after a career-high 235 carries. He had a combined 115 rushing attempts the past three seasons. Forsett hasn't broken the 72-yard rushing mark in three of the past four weeks. Pittsburgh has held nine of its last 10 foes to fewer than 100 yards on the ground. 

This is my NFC Game of the Year and here is why:

The Panthers are playing their best ball down the stretch inspired by Cam Newton, who is back running and not just sitting in the pocket, and getting much improved play from both their offensive and defensive lines. Their secondary also has gotten faster with a switch to younger defensive backs.

Carolina is giving up an average of 13.3 points during its last three games in beating the Saints, Buccaneers and Browns.

Carolina also has a strong history under Ron Rivera in December going 14-4 SU and 12-5-1 ATS. New England is the only team with more December victories during this span.

The Falcons aren't nearly good enough to lay this many points in a winner-take-all division setting. They can't rush the passer and their secondary took a hit last week with the loss of safety William Moore. The Panthers can key on Matt Ryan, who is playing behind a makeshift offensive line and lacking a ground attack made worse with Steven Jackson not likely to play.

The Jets played their Super Bowl for Rex Ryan last Sunday and nearly upset the Patriots. I don't see New York having the motivation in this meaningless matchup to put forth a second consecutive strong effort especially visiting sunny South Florida. Without a strong game, the Jets can't stay close on the scoreboard.

Geno Smith is just a killer for the Jets with his many mistakes and turnovers. Smith isn't going to have Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold and probably is going to be missing Percy Harvin, too.

The Dolphins have a strong defense. They came very close to making the playoffs. Miami is 8-7. If not for late blown leads against three playoff teams - Packers, Lions and Broncos - Miami would be sitting at 11-4 and this line would be much higher.

Ryan Tannehill is having his strongest season. The Jets give up more than 25 points a game with a battered, overmatched secondary. There's a class difference here. The Dolphins are unified with Joe Philbin returning as head coach, being at home and catching the Jets at an opportune time.

(Editor's note: Long-time pro Stephen Nover is heating up as he goes for his 19th winning NFL season in the last 21 years. Stephen is 7-1 the past two weeks on his NFL premium and free plays and has his NFC Game of the Year going Sunday.)

The Eagles are flawed, but they still are the better team here. The key is will they play hard? Knowing Chip Kelly the Eagles will. Kelly is taking this game serious. He could have given Matt Barkley a chance, but he won't. 

The Eagles have the stronger offensive and defensive lines and a far better running attack than the Giants. The Giants have trouble protecting Eli Manning and the Eagles rank second in sacks with 49, one behind Buffalo. The Eagles also hold a special teams edge. 

The Eagles blanked the Giants, 27-0, in the team's first meeting. They have won and covered in six of their last seven visits against the Giants. 

Dallas doesn't need this game and figures to be resting banged-up Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray for much of the game. Without those two Dallas can't play ball control and protect their vulnerable defense, which has a talent deficiency.

The Redskins have the skill position talent at receiver and running back to take advantage. Robert Griffin III and the rest of the Redskins received a huge jolt of confidence with last week's upset win against the Eagles.

The Redskins will be motivated for this long-standing division rivalry matchup. They have covered the past four years hosting Dallas. Jobs are at stake for many of the Redskins. They should be hard here while the Cowboys are in a letdown spot having ended their four-year playoff drought by burying the Colts last week.

Houston isn't strong enough to lay double-digits with fourth-string quarterback Case Keenum, who is 1-8 as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

The Jaguars have shown a respectable defense and a no-quit attitude under defensive-minded Gus Bradley. Only four teams have more sacks than Jacksonville.

Sure Houston is still alive for a playoff spot - albeit a long shot - but Jacksonville also has motivation. This is a division rivalry made more intense by many of the Jacksonville players close ties to Texas. The Jaguars have revenge and extra preparation and rest time having played last Thursday. They have covered in three of the last four meetings with the Texans.

The Jaguars are extremely young on offense starting six rookies, including quarterback Blake Bortles. But these young players have some experience now and fresher legs. Bortles has cut back on his dreadful number of turnovers getting picked off just twice in the last four games on 140 attempts with one coming on a desperate fourth down pass against Baltimore.

Bruce Arians has done a masterful job coaching the Cardinals up this season, but he's drawing dead here because of his quarterback situation.

Seattle has gotten healthy on defense. The result is the Seahawks' dominant defense of last season is back as good as ever. The Cardinals can't compete against it down to third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley, who doesn't have the ability.

Since Carson Palmer went down, the Cardinals have only managed four touchdowns in five games. They lack a ground game to take the pressure off Lindley and Larry Fitzgerald hasn't been 100 percent.

Arizona would be hard-pressed to put up points against a mediocre defense let alone the top one in the league right now. Seattle has allowed just 27 points during the last four weeks.

Seattle is peaking, playing its best ball winning and covering its last four games, including defeating these same Cardinals, 19-3, when Arizona had Drew Stanton at quarterback. Stanton is bad. But Lindley is even worse.

Seattle is 18-6-1 ATS versus foes with a winning record.

Russell Wilson has the mobility to escape Arizona's pass rush and make big plays with his feet and arm. He's also very good at not turning the ball over. He's accounted for six touchdowns in the last four games with no interceptions. The Seahawks can wear Arizona's defense down running Marshawn Lynch while effectively burning the Cardinals' secondary with play-action passes.

Oakland has won its last two home games in convincing style against the Chiefs and 49ers. Those teams are at least as good if not better than Buffalo. So the Raiders are capable - when home like they are here.

The Bills are a feisty group that must produce an "A" effort such as they did last week in upsetting Green Bay to do well. But this is a brutal spot for Buffalo. The Bills are not a good road team and are traveling cross-country after one of their most satisfying victories of the season. It's the first time this season the Bills are road chalk and they are laying a touchdown with a bad quarterback.

Kyle Orton is an over-the-hill game manager who does have the savvy to rely on his defense rather than take chances and attack defenses. He's not the type of quarterback who can cover margins like this, though, especially on the road.

The Raiders can keep Buffalo's fierce pass rushers off Derek Carr because they have a talented running back they have underutilized up to this point - Latavius Murray. He's fresh and ready.

The Ravens and Joe Flacco aren't strong enough to lay this many points on the road against this quality of an opponent.

The Texans can rush the passer with J.J. Watt and run the ball with Arian Foster. Flacco is at his worst on the road and when being pressured. The Ravens are minus suspended run-stuff nose guard Haloti Ngata. They can't commit to stopping the run because their secondary is decimated with injuries and is a major vulnerable area.

The line is this high because the Texans are down to fourth-string quarterback Case Keenum. The Texans have weapons, though, with Andre Johnson back from a concussion. It would just be an added plus if DeAndre Hopkins can play. Keenum has experience with the Texans. He also has the multi-talented Foster to rely on.

Jimmy Clausen doesn't come close to matching Jay Cutler's talent level, but the Bears are going to play very hard in this division matchup because of the quarterback change. Clausen does have weapons - Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett - and will be coached up by Marc Trestman, whose strength is coaching quarterbacks. Clausen isn't a scared rookie, but a veteran. He had an excellent preseason completing 64.9 percent for 7.6 YPA and two touchdowns. I believe he'll do fine for this particular game at home and with a rare motivated effort from the  Bears.

The Lions may let down having clinched a playoff berth yesterday following the Eagles' loss to the Redskins and knowing how dysfunctional the Bears have been, a team they destroyed on Thanksgiving by 17 points.

Detroit is just 4-16 ATS as road chalk and has covered only five of 16 times on grass. The Lions also have a horrible track record in December covering just three of their past 15 games in that month.

Brian Hoyer has not been playing well, but I can't envision a battle-tested veteran Bengals secondary that has permitted just 14 touchdown passes all year getting beat by untested rookie Johnny Manziel making his first start. It's going to be difficult for the Browns to retain their full concentration this week because of all the publicity Manziel's first start brings.

The Browns play hard and their defense is better than their statistics, but they are not in the Bengals' class. Only once all season has Cleveland outgained a foe at home.

There is zero chance of defensive-minded Marvin Lewis taking the Browns lightly after Cleveland embarrassed Cincinnati, 24-3, during the Thursday night Week 10 matchup. The Bengals haven't seen Manziel, but they have seen the Browns' offense now. 

Andy Dalton has been sacked just 16 times. Only Peyton Manning has been sacked fewer times among starting quarterback. Dalton has his full complement of weapons back, including a now healthy A.J. Green, who has 33 receptions and three 100-yard games during his past four games with three touchdowns.  

If there is one team more dysfunctional than the 49ers it's the Raiders.

Oakland doesn't have the talent to keep within single digits of the 49ers and its home field advantage is reduced because of the closeness to San Francisco. The Raiders have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 home contests.

The 49ers' offense has been slumping, hurt by Colin Kaepernick's regression in the passing game and the strange play-calling of Greg Roman. But the 49ers still have way too many weapons for the overmatched Oakland defense to keep track of.

The 49ers' defense, though, still remains top-rate. The Raiders rank last in points per game, yards and rushing.

The Buccaneers have been tough on the road covering four of their last five away matchups. They beat Pittsburgh, defeated the Redskins by 20 and took the Saints to overtime.Only once in their last nine games have the Bucs lost by more than 10 points. In six of those games, the Bucs had a chance to win during the final quarter. The key for the Buccaneers is huge defensive improvement as Lovie Smith's Cover 2 schemes - difficult to pick up at first - are assimilated. Since the midway point of the season, the Bucs ranked first in the league in yards per pass allowed and are fifth in sack percentage. Until blasting the defensive-challenged Bears on Thanksgiving, the Lions hadn't broken the 24-point barrier in 10 consecutive games. The Lions are fat and happy right now after destroying the Bears. This is their last non-division regular season game. The Lions have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games when taking on an opponent with a losing road mark. 

The Saints are down this season, but Pittsburgh is not an elite team. Elite teams don't lose to the Buccaneers and Jets.

Yes, New Orleans is 1-4 on the road. But three of those four losses were by a combined six points. The last time the Saints were at a cold weather site they beat the Eagles in the playoffs last season. It's not going to be a cold day either in Pittsburgh with temperatures in the 40s.

The Steelers are getting reinforced on defense with Troy Polamalu, Ryan Shazier and Ike Taylor likely to return to the lineup. Even with those players, though, the Steelers still are far from having their past dominant defenses.

Drew Brees has an underrated running attack with Mark Ingram having a career season. Brees is a top-five quarterback, who will keep the Saints in the game.

Massive snow in Buffalo have forced this game to be moved to Detroit, causing Buffalo to lose its home field advantage.

The Jets are in a much better place now - both offensively and morale-wise - with Michael Vick replacing totally inept Geno Smith. Vick makes the Jets offense respectable now especially with Percy Harvin aboard. The Jets catch a break in that the Bills just lost cornerback Leodis McKelvin for the season.

The Jets outgained the Bills when they met in Week 8, but couldn't overcome Smith's quick three interceptions. The Jets are off a bye and have revenge. They aren't going to the playoffs so this division rivalry matchup in a revenge spot is close to their Super Bowl game.

Buffalo lost its playoff hope in a span of five days last week with losses to the Chiefs and Dolphins. The Bills haven't scored in their last 21 possessions and rank last in red zone touchdown efficiency. They have failed to score more than 17 points in six of their past eight games. Kyle Orton is far less of a playmaker than Orton.

The Jets rank No. 4 in run defense. The Jets' strength is their defensive front seven. 

Washington has lost 15 of its last 18 games. The Redskins are down - and they are not getting up.

The Redskins' offense is a mess because Robert Griffith III has just become a glorified checkdown machine unable to fully come back from devastating injuries and in the wrong offensive system. The 49ers still have an upper-tier defense and their pass rush has become far more dangerous with the return of Aldon Smith.

The 49ers are going to generate plenty of points versus a Washington defense that allows nearly 26 points a game and is minus its best pass rusher, Brian Orakpo, and best cornerback, DeAngelo Hall.

This also is a terrible spot for the Redskins traveling cross-country following a horrendous 20-point home loss to Tampa Bay.

Not only do the Eagles have the high-powered, quick-tempo offense to blow out the Titans, but they are in a great spot to do it.

The Eagles are off an embarrassing road loss to Green Bay. The Titans are off an emotional and well-played game and effort this past Monday at home where they nearly upset the Steelers. Now the Titans have to travel to a very hostile environment on a short week with a young team in an all-out rebuilding stage. I don't see them being able to sustain that type of effort, which is more than needed against this strong of an opponent.

The Titans have the second-worst run defense in the league and their offense isn't set up to play from behind. Rookie quarterback Zack Mettenberger has no mobility. The Eagles have 33 sacks and will be applying plenty of heat. The Titans need to stay on the ground to set up Mettenberger, but their defense is going to have problems with the Eagles' fast pace that keeps opponents from substituting.

The Eagles have forced at least one turnover in 21 of their last 22 games. They also have the best special teams in the NFL.

The Titans are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games. They have won only once during their past nine games.

Cincinnati isn't as intimidating on the road, but the Bengals still are a clear level about Houston especially with Arian Foster not looking like he's going to play.

The Texans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games. This is Ryan Mallett's first home start. He's not going to win games on his own and he lacks mobility. The Bengals can generate pressure and have a veteran defense that has been reinforced with some key players back from injury.

Houston does not have an explosive offense. The Texans have yet to throw for 300 yards in a game. Foster is their key, but he's grounded by hamstring, groin and knee problems. The Bengals are strong on pass defense.

Andy Dalton is helped by a return to health of A.J. Green, a top-five receiver. The Texans have no one who can handle him. Jeremy Hill has provided solid ground work rushing for 361 yards the last three games, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. So Dalton isn't forced to carry the load.

The Titans get a rare home chance on the national stage tonight, but they are not good enough to keep this matchup close.

The Steelers are off an embarrassing flat spot against the Jets. Don't look for the Steelers to be down a second straight week.

Ben Roethlisberger has been red-hot and he should get good infantry support for the first time in three games as the Titans rank 29th versus the run.

Ken Whisenhunt has made no bones about the Titans being in a rebuilding year. He's switched to sixth-round rookie Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. The Steelers have some defensive injuries, but Mettenberger isn't ready yet to be an effective NFL starting quarterback. He's hurt by not having a lick of mobility and holding the ball too long.

Mettenberger isn't likely to have injured tight end and security blanket Delanie Walker, who leads the Titans in receiving yards and touchdowns. Under wily defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, the Steelers are 18-2 facing rookie quarterbacks.

The Titans have a terrible track record covering just two of their last 14 games. They have lost eight of their last 10 home games and are 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 home matchups.

The Chiefs are similar to the Seahawks in that they are run-oriented and play good defense. They just aren't as good as Seattle and Alex Smith isn't nearly as good as Russell Wilson.

The Seahawks' offense has picked up with the return to health of left tackle Russell Okung and center Max Unger. It wasn't a fluke the Seahawks rushed for 350 yards against the Giants last week with those two stud offensive linemen back in the lineup.

The Seahawks run the ball well and stop the run. They lead the league in yards per carry and are tied for first in giving up the fewest yards per rush. The Chiefs rank 30th in giving up yards per run. The strength of their defense is edge pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali.

Because of Wilson, the Chiefs can't stack the line either keying just on Marshawn Lynch. Seattle can stack the box against Jamaal Charles, though, because the Chiefs have no downfield passing game.

Alex Smith has the lowest yards per throw of any quarterback during the past five years. He has yet to connect with a wide receiver for a touchdown this season.

The Chiefs are not well rounded enough to defeat the defending Super Bowl champions.

Now that the line has come down under a field goal I'm going to get involved with the Bears.

There is tremendous urgency for Chicago in this matchup. The Bears' season is at stake and possibly the future of Marc Trestman and Jay Cutler remaining in Chicago.

I expect the Bears to play with a great deal of urgency and passion after being embarrassed in their last two games. Those blowout losses, though, came to the Packers and Patriots.

The Vikings' offense is light years behind those elite offenses. Minnesota's defense has improved under defensive guru Mike Zimmer. But the Vikings still are vulnerable in the secondary and their offense doesn't scare anyone with rookie Teddy Bridgewater a work in progress. Expect a big game from Jared Allen, an ex-Viking who will be going against his former practice partner tackle Matt Kalil.

Cutler and the Bears are better than they have shown. Cutler has the weapons to put up a lot of points against Minnesota. The Vikings haven't won at Soldier Field in seven years.

OK, the Panthers aren't the defensive team they were a year ago.

But they aren't a touchdown worse than the Eagles especially with Philadelphia losing its leader on defense, linebacker DeMeco Ryans.

Chip Kelly's fast-break offense gets the publicity. This doesn't tell the whole picture, though. The Eagles' defense wasn't very good even with Ryans giving up 400 or more yards in four of their last six games.

The Eagles also don't take care of the ball very well either committing 21 turnovers. They are down to second-string quarterback Mark Sanchez, who never has shown a tendency to be careful with the ball either. This is Sanchez's first start in two years so there could be some rust. He has just five more touchdowns than interceptions in his career.

Carolina's offense should pick up against this opponent especially getting back some of their injured starting offensive linemen. Carolina is expected to have back offensive linemen Byron Bell, Amini Silatolu and Trai Turner.

The Panthers are on extra rest having played 11 days ago. They are eager to atone for their disappointing season with a strong performance on the national stage. They also have been given second life in the weak NFC South with the Saints getting upset at home this past Sunday by the 49ers. 

The Eagles have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times when hosting an opponent with a losing road record.

I can't see the Raiders staying within two touchdowns of Denver. The Broncos are averaging 30.6 points per game and are No. 2 in the NFL in passing. Peyton Manning is having another monster season on pace to throw for 5,144 yards and 44 touchdowns.

Rookie Derek Carr, devoid of weapons and saddled with the worst ground attack by far in the NFL, has no chance of keeping pace. The Raiders rank last in total yards and second-to-last in points per game. Only twice have the Raiders scored more than 14 points in a game.

Oakland's defense has recorded just eight sacks and gives up more than 26 points per game.

The prideful Broncos are in angry mood after an embarrassing road loss to the Patriots this past Sunday.

The Raiders could have the most overrated home field in the NFL. The Raiders have had just one winning ATS season at home since 2004. They haven't had a winning ATS mark as a home 'dog since 2009.

The Broncos have beaten the Raiders in Oakland the past three seasons by an average of 17.6 points.

The Lions have the league's top defense, were idle last week and their offense will get heavily fortified with the expected return of Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and some of their banged-up tight ends.

Matthew Stafford is a much better quarterback when he has Johnson, who has missed the past three games and is anxious to have his usual big impact.

A big key, though, with backing the Lions besides their much improved defense is their new coaching staff headed by Jim Caldwell. The Lions are actually well coached for the first time in years. Caldwell has established discipline and a reduction on penalties and stupid decisions.

The Dolphins have a solid defense, too, but their offense can't match the Lions at the skill positions. Lamar Miller is Miami's best running back and he has a shoulder injury. Miller is just an average runner, but he's much better than what the Dolphins have behind him. 

The Lions rank first in the NFL in fewest yards per game and in scoring defense holding opponents to less than 16 points a game.

This is the Dolphins' only dome game and stiffest road challenge. Miami's other road games have been at Buffalo, Oakland in London, at Chicago and Jacksonville. The Bills are 1-3 ATS at home with their lone cover coming in a 29-10 win against the Dolphins. The Raiders have yet to win a game, while the Bears and Jaguars are a combined 1-6 at home.

Cleveland's 5-3 record looks fancy on the surface, but the Browns aren't good enough to keep within a touchdown against a superior opponent in this setting.

The Browns last three games have come against the three worst teams in the NFL - Jaguars, Raiders and Buccaneers. Cleveland lost to the Jaguars by 18 points and didn't have an easy time with either the Raiders or Buccaneers nearly losing to one-win Tampa Bay last week. 

This is the Browns' first national TV game of the season. It comes on a short week on the road against probably the best team in the AFC North. The Browns have lost 17 consecutive division road games having last beaten an AFC North club away from home in 2008.

The Bengals are 13-0-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games at Paul Brown Stadium. They have covered 82 percent of their past 18 home games.

Brian Hoyer needs an effective ground attack to be effective. The Browns haven't had that in their last three games since losing star center Alex Mack. Cleveland has averaged just 52.6 yards rushing during this time span. The Browns also are going to be missing their best receiving threat, tight end Jordan Cameron.

The Bengals have their best playmaker back in A.J. Green. He makes Andy Dalton much better. Even if Giovani Bernad can't play, the Bengals still have power back Jeremy Hill to exploit the Browns' 31st rush defense.

The Steelers' balanced offense is rolling averaging 40.5 points in their last two games. Ben Roethlisberger has never been hotter. Martavis Bryant has stepped up to give the Steelers a tall wide receiving option to go with Antonio Brown.

Baltimore is without its top defensive back, cornerback Jimmy Smith. That leaves the Ravens without a strong cover person to handle Brown, who is an absolute game-changer with 60 receptions for 852 yards and seven touchdowns.

The Ravens' defense is far less intimidating when playing on the road. Baltimore has covered just one of its last five away contests and is 1-6-1 ATS during its last eight games versus AFC foes.

Pittsburgh has covered seven of its last 10 home games and has revenge for am embarrassing 26-6 loss to the Ravens in Week 2. The Steelers have changed up a lot of things since that defeat and are in a much better place now.

The Steelers' defense has been reinforced with the return of nose tackle Steve McLendon and good-looking rookie linebacker Ryan Shazier.

The 49ers are rested and ready to pummel the Rams, a team they beat by two touchdowns just three weeks ago despite playing far from their "A" game.

The Rams are decimated by injuries. They were missing their two starting cornerbacks this past Sunday against the Chiefs. They had to use a sixth-round rookie and an undrafted rookie. The 49ers can take advantage with their deep crop of veteran wide receivers.

Then against the Chiefs, the Rams lost their leading receiver, Brian Quick, and three starting offensive linemen, including left tackle Jake Long.

Austin Davis is struggling as the league studies more film on him. He is playing behind a makeshift offensive line with below average wide receivers and a disappointing ground attack.

The Rams stole a game against the Seahawks two weeks ago by coming up with trick plays on special teams. That's not going to work against fiery Jim Harbaugh and his well-coached, veteran 49ers team.

I'm not a fan of the Texans. They have been outgained by an average of nearly 30 yards per game and have played a weak schedule. Their victories have come against the Redskins opening week with a rusty Robert Griffin III at quarterback, Raiders, Bills with E.J. Manuel at quarterback and Titans with rookie Zach Mettenberger making his first pro start.

Aside from Arian Foster, J.J. Watt and a declining Andre Johnson the Texans really don't have much. Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league and heavily turnover prone. He's committed eight turnovers in his last six games.

The Eagles represent a step up for the Texans. The Eagles' offensive line is getting healthier and their ground game has picked up with LeSean McCoy rushing for 232 yards in his last two games. Nick Foles isn't nearly as good as his 2013 statistics, but he's better than he's shown lately. His game will pick up since the Eagles' offensive line is getting back to full strength.

It has been 21 games since the Eagles last lost two in a row.

Philadelphia's defense is improving, helped by the return of linebacker Mychal Kendricks. The Eagles also hold a special teams edge. They have seven defensive/special teams touchdowns while their opposition has yet to put up a defensive or special teams score.

The Eagles won't lack for motivation either in this non-conference matchup with eight former Texans on their roster, including linebackers DeMeco Ryans and Connor Barwin.

All streaks must come to an end. I see the Packers ending New Orleans' 19-game home winning streak under Sean Payton and 13-game home winning streak on national TV in this prime time Sunday Night matchup.

I have no doubts that Payton will have the Saints fired-up. But New Orleans isn't as good, nor playing nearly as well as Green Bay. The Packers have taken their game up a notch behind the flawless play of Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is averaging 36.3 and 352.5 yards per game during the last four weeks - all victories.

The Saints defense has looked far more like their record-worst defense of two years ago than last year. Their secondary is weak especially without injured Jarius Byrd and prey to Rodgers, who has thrown 17 touchdown passes with no interceptions his last six games. The Saints rank 28th in points allowed and pass defense. Rodgers has a multitude of weapons with the emergence of rookie Davon Adams joining Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb plus a solid ground attack to keep things balanced.

New Orleans is 2-4 and its record isn't a fluke. The Saints' only two victories were lackluster home wins at home against the Vikings, where rookie Teddy Bridgewater was making his first start, and versus the Buccaneers in overtime. Those two teams are a combined 3-10.

Green Bay's defense isn't as good as it's offense and cornerback Sam Shields is out. But the Packers may have the most depth of any secondary in the NFL.

Drew Brees is having a down year by his lofty standards. The Saints have a cluster injury problem at running back, their wide receivers aren't as good as Green Bay's and star tight end Jimmy Graham has been reduced to decoy status because of a shoulder injury. Brees also is without injured center Jonathan Goodwin.

There is nothing wrong with Seattle's offense. In fact, it's better than it was last year as Russell Wilson is improved and his offensive line is healthy.

The Panthers have fallen apart on defense due to the suspension of Greg Hardy and a horrendous secondary that was put together on the cheap. Carolina has given up 38, 30, 24, 37 and 38 points in its last five games.

I see Seattle's defense and special teams playing better after an embarrassing loss to the Rams last week. The Panthers have a cluster injury problem at running back and are missing both of their starting guards.

The Seahawks get a lot of publicity for their great home record, but they have also covered nine of their last 13 on the road/neutral site games.

The Titans have formally given up on their season with word coming out that Ken Whisenhunt is going to start rookie sixth-round pick Zach Mettenberger at quarterback.

Mettenberger isn't ready and he lacks the mobility to cover up his mistakes. His life is going to be made miserable by J.J. Watt and possibly Jadeveon Clowney, who is tentatively due back this week. The Titans rank 29th in points scored and 27th in total yards. Mettenberger doesn't have a lot of weapons to help him.

The Titans have lost a number of key defensive players. They are giving up 24.6 points per game and that number could rise. This is a matchup that Ryan Fitzpatrick can manage relying on stud running back Arian Foster, who already has five 100-yard rushing games.

Tennessee is 1-8-2 ATS in its last 11 home games.

Away from Georgia Dome, the Falcons have dropped 11 of their last 12, going 3-9 ATS. Atlanta has lost its last seven away games by double-digits. Don't look for the Falcons to correct their problems with this game in London.

Matt Ryan has no time to throw. His offensive line is decimated. The Falcons will be going through their fifth different starting offensive line with this matchup after losing their starting center, Peter Konz, for the season. Ryan doesn't have a reliable ground game to fall back on either. Steven Jackson is Atlanta's lead runner and he's well past his prime.

The Lions' defense has become dominant particularly their front four. Detroit has held five of its seven opponents to 17 points or less while ranking first or second in total defense, run defense and scoring defense.

The Falcons' defense is far weaker ranking 30th in yards given up and points allowed. The statistics don't lie. The Falcons have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Their earlier home victories against New Orleans and Tampa Bay don't look so good now given the struggles those two teams are having.

Even if Calvin Johnson doesn't play, the Lions have enough weapons with Matthew Stafford, Reggie Bush and Golden Tate to take advantage of such a weak opposing defense. The Lions also have solved their kicking problems with the signing of Matt Prater.

The Steelers haven't lost a home game on Monday night since 1991 and I expect them to win this game by more than a field goal.

Pittsburgh holds a huge edge at quarterback and its defense, which has been disappointing, will be super fired-up after being called soft by former players and coaches.

The Steelers' defense is far from dominant like it has been, but it still ranked in the upper half entering this week in total defense, rushing and passing. Pittsburgh also is going against one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league, Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Fitzpatrick is a journeyman, game-manager who is turnover prone. He has a 3-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. He has turned the ball over 10 times this season. The Texans entered Week 7 ranked 28th in passing.

The Texans have struggled when facing elite quarterbacks. In their last two games, they've allowed 694 yards through the air in losing to Tony Romo and the Cowboys and Andrew Luck and the Colts.

Houston's previous two victories came against the Bills quarterbacked by E.J. Manuel and the Raiders quarterbacked by Derek Carr. I don't see the Texans stopping Ben Roethlisberger.

Houston is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 AFC matchups.

PROP RECOMMENDATIONS

I'm looking to fade Ryan Fitzpatrick on various props. One prop at the Westgate has Fitzpatrick's passing yards at over/under 222.5. I like under.

The Texans are a run-first team even when they are behind. Their coaching staff knows Fitzpatrick is a game-manager not a gunslinger. Fitzpatrick has gone under 222.5 yards in four of Houston's six games. He has averaged 183 yards in his last two games.

It wouldn't be a shock either if Fitzpatrick didn't finish the game. There has been talk about making a quarterback switch in Houston.

San Francisco has too many injuries on defense to keep it close against Peyton Manning. Since Manning joined Denver, the Broncos have won 17 of 19 regular season home games. Manning has thrown 59 touchdown passes in the 19 games.

This also is a tough situational spot for the 49ers, traveling on a short week after having played on the road this past Monday against the Rams.

Denver has upgraded its defense ranking fourth in fewest yards allowed and fifth in run defense. The 49ers need to run to be successful and they are averaging just 3.6 yards per carry on the road compared to 4.7 at home.

An all-out focused effort should be forthcoming from the Seahawks after suffering a rare home loss this past Sunday.

The Rams are the youngest team in the NFL down to their third-string quarterback, Austin Davis, and with a disappointing ground attack.

The Seahawks rank sixth in run defense. Davis has a big arm, but lacks accuracy and has a below average receiving core.

The Rams have only one sack, rank 26th in run defense and are giving up 30 points a game. They are on a short week after melting down at home this past Monday night in a loss to the 49ers.

The Seahawks get a lot of attention for being near invincible at home, but they are 11-3-1 ATS during their past 14 road games. Russell Wilson is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league. He'll be able to avoid the Rams' frequent blitzes while Marshawn Lynch takes advantage of the Rams' below average run defense.

Colin Kaepernick is at his best when his ground game is going smoothly. That will be the case in this matchup. The 49ers rank No. 3 in rushing thanks to a hot Frank Gore, who has rushed for 299 yards while averaging 4.9 yards per carry during his last four games. Gore has had some of his best performances against the Rams, having scored 14 touchdowns against them while running for more than 1,100 yards.

St. Louis permits nearly 30 points a game and is second-to-last in stopping the run. The Rams have allowed 100-yard rushers in three of their last four games.

Don't be fooled by the Rams ranking No. 1 in pass defense. Their secondary actually isn't very good at all. They've faced the fewest pass attempts per game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed close to 71 percent of their throws against the Rams. The Rams are last in the league in sacks, too, with just one.

San Francisco owns the superior offense and defense. The 49ers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road and neutral site games, not including playing in Seattle.

I see the Cowboys getting exposed here. Dallas has reeled off four straight victories - beating three weak teams (Titans, Rams and Texans in overtime at home) and underachieving Saints.
 
Now the Cowboys go on the road for their only away matchup in a six-week span. No team is tougher at home than Seattle, which is 19-1 SU and 15-5 ATS in its last 20 at CenturyLink Field with an average winning margin of more than 15 points.
 
DeMarco Murray is having an MVP-type season. His great running has kept Dallas' horrendous defense off the field. Murray, though, is going to find it tough running on Seattle's top-ranked rush defense. The physical Seahawks secondary figures to make things round on turnover-prone Tony Romo.
 
Russell Wilson will be able to take advantage of Dallas' lack of coverage skills from its linebackers and safeties. The Cowboys also are down injured cornerback Morris Claiborne.
 
Arian Foster ran wild on Dallas last week. Marshawn Lynch certainly is capable of doing that, too.
 

There is no Super Bowl hangover for the Seahawks. They are just as good this season if not better than 2013.

Washington's statistics were highly inflated during Weeks 2 and 3 because the Redskins built them against the Jaguars and Eagles defenses. This, along with playing the Texans and Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1, inflated the Redskins' defensive stats, too.

Truth be told, the Redskins' defense isn't much better than last year and no longer has cornerback DeAngelo Hall. The Redskins' secondary is highly vulnerable and their linebackers can't cover Percy Harvin. If you discount their performance against overmatched Chad Henne, the Redskins have managed just one sack. In their last two games, the Redskins have allowed Nick Foles and Eli Manning, who had been in a slump, to complete a combined 55 of 80 passes for 625 yards and seven touchdowns with just one interception.

Kirk Cousins is a very limited, systems quarterback. He was exposed by the Giants in Washington's last game, a brutal 45-14 home loss. Cousins was picked off four times, three of which came when he wasn't even being pressured. Cousins now faces the premier defense and secondary in the league that is rested following a bye.

Last year, the Seahawks played stronger run defense on the road than at home giving up 3.7 yards away from CenturyLink Field compared to 4.2 yards a carry at home. This year, the Seahawks are holding opponents to 2.8 yards on the ground while on the road and 2.7 when at home. Bad news for Alfred Morris. Cousins isn't nearly the playmaker needed against this elite defense if he doesn't have ground support, or respect off play-action.

The Seahawks also are riding an eight-game winning streak on Monday night. 

The 49ers have yet to play their "A" game, while the Chiefs looked fantastic in demolishing the Patriots at home this past Monday.

All of this has made this a cheap number to lay with San Francisco. The Chiefs are traveling to the West Coast on a short week off a big emotional victory. It's a bad setting for them. Even with their victory over the Patriots, the Chiefs are still just 4-8 in their last 12 games. 

The 49ers' defense is down a notch due to injuries and suspensions. They can be passed on - but not by Alex Smith and his pedestrian receivers. The 49ers are well acquainted with their former teammate knowing his full limitations, which are many. Smith also will be without his second-best wide receiver, Donnie Avery.

The Chiefs need to run the ball, but the 49ers have gotten very stingy against the run holding their last three opponents to an average of 2.4 yards per rush.

On the flip side, the 49ers should have success against a Chiefs run defense that has allowed opposing backs to average 5.3 yards per attempt. The Chiefs are missing their best linebacker, Derrick Johnson, and best defensive back with safety Eric Berry declared out due to a high ankle sprain.

The 49ers have gone back to their bread-and-butter, which is Frank Gore. His running sets up Colin Kaepernick and his upgraded receiving corps. That's the way it should be not the other way around, which Jim Harbaugh has figured out. During the first three weeks, the Chiefs gave up six touchdown passes without an interception. Their secondary is highly vulnerable. 

The Broncos haven't played that well yet still have managed to beat the Colts and Chiefs each by seven points at home.

Denver has covered 13 of its last 18 regular-season home games when favored since 2012.

Peyton Manning should be able to exploit the soft underbelly of the Cardinals, who are down key linebackers from last year and have no pass rush minus Darnell Dockett and John Abraham. Arizona only has three sacks on the season.

Backup Drew Stanton is a downgrade from Carson Palmer more game manager than downfield attacker. He is not going to be able to keep up with Manning.

The Broncos have upgraded both their run defense and pass defense from a year ago.

The timing is bad here for the Vikings. Green Bay's offense is back in sync with Aaron Rodgers producing one of his best games last week. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer is an excellent defensive coach, but it's going to take him time to build back a porous defense that is likely to be missing linebacker Chad Greenway again.

Rodgers has regularly taken advantage of the Vikings' vulnerable secondary with a 26-to-4 touchdown-to-interception career ratio.

The Vikings are off a great home victory against Atlanta, but now travel on a short week. The Giants beat the home Redskins last Thursday, but in the first three Thursday games of the season the home team has won and covered each time winning by a combined margin of 118-36.

Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater sparked the Vikings in their win against the Falcons, who suffered multiple offensive line injuries and can't play in outdoor road settings. Bridgewater, though, suffered an ankle injury. There's a drop from Bridgewater to third-stringer Christian Ponder, who would be Minnesota's third starting quarterback in three weeks if Bridgewater is a no good.

Even if Bridgewater plays, he won't be at 100 percent and the Packers now have film on him. He won't sneak up on them like he did the Falcons. Bridgewater is missing key weapons Adrian Peterson and Kyle Rudolph. That is going to catch up to the Vikings soon. Green Bay's run defense has been soft, but the Vikings minus Peterson have only pedestrian backs.

The Packers are off a huge road win against the Bears. This is their lone home game during a four-week span. They will be taking this matchup very serious. Minnesota hasn't won at Lambeau Field since 2009.

I also like these player props (taken from Bovada) on Packers wide receiver Davonte Adams.   I like Adams to go over 2 1/2 receptions and over 25 1/2 receiving yards. Jarrett Boykin is out. Adams is the Packers' new clear No. 3 wide receiver. He played 70 percent of the offensive snaps last week when Boykin didn't play and caught a 34-yard touchdown pass that didn't count because of a penalty. Aaron Rodgers is getting more comfortable throwing to Adams. The Vikings will be paying a lot of attention to Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb giving Adams plenty of receiving opportunities. 

Before prematurely writing off the Patriots for their slow offensive start consider how bad and banged-up the Chiefs are in key areas.

Kansas City has lost eight of its past 11 games. The Chiefs have lost the statistics battle in eight of these 11 games, too. They are minus a number of key defensive players, including safety Eric Berry and their best linebacker, Derrick Johnson. The Chiefs have failed to cover in seven of the last 10 games they've played versus foes with a winning record.

Kansas City's offensive line is down starters, too, because of injuries and suspensions. Jamaal Charles isn't 100 percent and Alex Smith entered this Week 4 with the worst sack-to-pass-play ratio among starting quarterbacks. He's been sacked 11 times already.

New England's defense is playing well coming into this week limiting foes to 272.7 yards and intercepting six passes.

The Patriots' offense will come around as Rob Gronkowski gets more involved. So far he's played less than 50 percent of the offensive's snaps. Tom Brady shouldn't have any trouble carving up such a weakened defense.

The Patriots also are 7-0 ATS in Week 4.

In a few weeks this line is going to have looked real cheap. The Saints are 1-2. They could be 3-0 having lost in overtime on the road to Atlanta and in the final three seconds to Cleveland on the road.

New Orleans hasn't come close to reaching its peak yet both offensively and defensively. That could come here against Dallas, whose franchise-worst defense of 2013 isn't any better this year if not worse.

DeMarco Murray is the lone running back to rush for 100 yards in every game this season, but Tony Romo is past his prime and still not 100 percent following off-season back surgery. He has weapons, but Drew Brees has more weapons, including all-world tight end Jimmy Graham. Brees still remains in his peak.

The Saints have beaten the Cowboys in each of their last three meetings, including destroying them, 49-17, last year in the Superdome. The Saints are at their worst in a cold weather setting, which this is not.

Dallas is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 home games and 8-18 ATS following a victory. Sean Payton is a far superior coach to Jason Garrett. The Cowboys' road victory against the Titans doesn't look so hot now that Tennessee has looked terrible in its last two games and Dallas' narrow victory this past Sunday against the Rams isn't impressive either considering St. Louis was playing third-string quarterback Austin Davis.

Bottom line here is the Saints are two levels higher than the Cowboys. So this is a cheap price to lay and the best time to lay it is now before the line rises as expected.

Oakland can't play in the States and the Raiders won't be any better in London.

As bad as Miami has looked the past two weeks the Dolphins are still a much better team than the Raiders. Oakland ranks with Jacksonville as one of the two worst teams in the NFL. The Dolphins have a playoff caliber defense and their offensive line should be at their best with center Mike Pouncey expected back.

The Raiders rank last in yards and points on offense. Rookie quarterback Derek Carr has below average wide receivers and no ground support. Carr is going to face pressure from Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon, two of the best pass rushers in the AFC.

As bad as Oakland is on offense its numbers could be even worse as nearly half of their points and yardage have come during garbage time when the outcome had been decided.

The Saints have been invincible at home going 17-0 SU and 16-1 ATS the past 17 times at the Superdome when Sean Payton is the coach.

The Saints are in an ugly frame of mind, too, after blowing late leads to the Falcons and Browns on the road to start 0-2.

The Vikings gave up the most points last year. Drew Brees can take advantage with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and other weapons he has.

New Orleans averaged 34 points at home last year. The Saints' defense is better than it has looked this year and will get to tee off on journeyman Matt Cassel. Minus Adrian Peterson, Cassel doesn't have the ground game to keep the Saints' pass rush honest. He's not nearly a good enough quarterback to keep pace with Brees.

Both of these teams are favored to win their respective divisions. Both have flaws, though. Right now the Colts are in better shape, have the better quarterback and are at home, which means a lot.

During the two-year Andrew Luck era, Indy is 14-3 at home, 12-4-1 ATS. They beat both the Broncos and Seahawks last year by six points each. Philly certainly isn't in that class.

Nick Foles already showed signs last week against lowly Jacksonville that he's not going to maintain his incredible 27-to-2 touchdown-to-interception season of a year. He committed two turnovers against the Jaguars and was sacked five times.

The Colts' pass rush leaves much to be desired minus Robert Mathis, but the Eagles' offensive line is in disarray with four of their top seven linemen out, including star guard Evan Mathis. They are on their third right tackle.

Trend-wise the Eagles are 2-8-1 ATS in September and have failed to cover the last five times when playing in their second game of the year. The Colts have also covered in eight of their last 10 Monday night games.

I

The Raiders were even worse than advertised against the Jets, which is saying a lot. The final score was Jets 19, Raiders 14. But the statistics show New York's domination. The Jets outgained the Raiders, 402-158, outrushing them, 212-25.

Oakland's below-average wide receivers couldn't even get separation on the Jets' cornerbacks, who could be the worst in the NFL. Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden, both of whom averaged only 3.3 yards per carry last year, both looked terrible.

The Raiders have to simplify their playbook for rookie quarterback Derek Carr and don't have the supporting cast for him to succeed.

Houston is a prime bounce back team with $100 million man J.J. Watt, perhaps the only player in the league capable of blowing up an offense by himself, along with a healthy-again Arian Foster and Andre Johnson, who are among the best at their respective positions.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is an intelligent, veteran game-manager, which is what the Texans need in this spot. It's an added plus for the Texans if the Raiders are without middle linebacker Nick Roach for a second straight week.

Houston first-year coach Bill O'Brien is a lot sharper than Oakland coach Dennis Allen.

It's one thing for the Jets to beat Oakland and rookie quarterback Derek Carr at home with the worst cornerbacks in the league. Hanging on the road with Aaron Rodgers is quite another story.

I see the Packers blowing out the Raiders. Green Bay has had extra prep time and is in a foul mood following their embarrassing national TV loss to the Seahawks this past Thursday.

Green Bay is a much better team than it looked against the Seahawks. The Packers' offense was crisp during preseason with Rodgers running the no-huddle to near perfection.

The Jets made a big mistake not spending money on the cornerback position. Now they are extremely thin and vulnerable there. Rodgers, with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, can easily exploit New York's secondary.

Green Bay is 8-1 ATS the past nine times when laying seven or more points. Geno Smith plays much worse on the road. Last year, he had a 5-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road.

This is the Jets' only road matchup during their first four games so a loss would not be catastrophic for them especially after beating the Raiders last week.

I don't see the Browns offense, devoid of skill position talent and with injuries to key players, being able to keep up with Drew Brees.

The Browns caught the Steelers coasting and by surprise with a no-huddle offense last Sunday in scoring 24 second-half points. The Saints' defense is much better than it showed against the Falcons. They just ran into a very good - and healthy - Falcons offense in the Georgia Dome. The Saints have film now on the Browns' no-huddle and won't be fooled.

The Saints do not have a good track record in outdoor road games, but they did beat the Bears at Soldier Field last season and the Eagles in cold weather during a road playoff game.

Look for the Patriots to play much better than they did in Week 1. It has been 33 games since New England lost two regular season games in a row. Consequently, it has been 18 games since Minnesota won consecutive games.

The Vikings look improved under Mike Zimmer, but they have a long ways to go after giving up the most touchdown passes and second-most passing yards last season. They are not going against backup quarterbacks this week, but Tom Brady.

Brady and the Patriots are eager to redeem themselves after losing in humiliation fashion to the more physical Dolphins. New England's defense is much improved with the return to health of Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo plus the addition of Darrelle Revis. Bill Belichick is quite familiar with journeyman quarterback Matt Cassel, who he formerly coached.

Note, too, that the Vikings no longer have their indoor dome edge against outdoor teams. The Vikings are playing their games at TCF Bank Stadium. This is their first game there, which will be a distraction and cut down on their home field edge.

Dallas had its worst defense in franchise history last season giving up 50 touchdowns and the most yards in team history. The Cowboys defense looks even worse this year because of injuries, defections and a suspension to cornerback Orlando Scandrick.

The Cowboys are going to have win via shootouts. The timing isn't great for Dallas' offense. Tony Romo was brought along slowly following off-season back surgery. Romo is rusty and his offensive line has some inexperience.

Colin Kaepernick is on the verge of a break-out season with a deep set of receivers, including a healthy Michael Crabtree. San Francisco has covered in eight of its last 10 road games.

Dallas has been one of the biggest money-burners at home going 6-13 ATS in their last 19 in Arlington.

The Steelers have owned the Browns winning seven of the past eight times. They have held Cleveland to an average of 9.3 points during the past 12 meetings.

The Browns look just as terrible on offense as ever. Brian Hoyer is more backup than starter and he could have the worst starting wide receiver tandem in the NFL in washed-up Miles Austin and Andrew Hawkins.

The Steelers' defense is always tough, especially at home, and it received an infusion of new blood spearheaded by good-looking rookie Ryan Shazier.

Pittsburgh's offense is more balanced this season. The Steelers' offensive line is more stable and Ben Roethlisberger has two good running backs - Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount - to help make his deadly play action passes work.

The Steelers closed last season covering seven of their last eight games. The Browns are just 3-7 in their last 10 road games. They also are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Pittsburgh.

No team has been more futile on opening day than the Browns, who are 1-14 SU and 2-12-1 ATS since coming back into the league in 1999.

The Chiefs aren't coming close to winning 11 games this season. They lost three offensive linemen in free agency and another, right tackle, Donald Stephenson, is suspended for the first four games. The key member of the line, left tackle Eric Fisher, is coming off shoulder surgery and hasn't looked good.

Also suspended is Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City's best wide receiver. The Chiefs could have the worst collection of wideouts in the NFL without Bowe.

The Chiefs' offense struggled during preseason as their first-string offense failed to produce a touchdown. The Chiefs are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.

The Titans, on the other hand, look like one of the more improved teams in the NFL. They upgraded their coaching bringing in proven winner and offensive guru Ken Whisenhunt. Jake Locker is healthy and is ready for a breakout season fortified with three underrated wide receivers - Justin Hunter, Kendall Wright and Nate Washington. They can take advantage of a Kansas City defense that fell apart during the second half of last season.

Tennessee is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight road contests. 

Everybody seems to be just recalling the Seahawks smashing the Broncos in the Super Bowl and forgetting about the Packers, who with Aaron Rodgers and a healthy lineup are as good as any team on a neutral field.

Seattle is the loudest outdoor venue in the league, but Green Bay negates some of that Seahawks' home field advantage with a no-huddle. The Packers are no longer a finesse team. Not with powerful Eddie Lacy.

The Seahawks have the best secondary in the league. But their physical secondary is going to be affected more than any other team with the increased emphasis from officials on flagging defensive holding and making tighter pass interference calls.

The Packers are deep at wide receiver. The Seahawks are actually weak at nickel back with Jeremy Lane, who isn't 100 percent because of a groin injury and will have problems handling Randall Cobb, who the Packers constantly move around. Seattle lost three of their top seven defensive linemen reducing their depth. Green Bay's offensive line is underrated especially with Bryan Bulaga healthy. I would take Green Bay's offensive line over Seattle's.

The Packers have a deep secondary, too, and their defensive line is much improved. The Packers haven't forgotten either how they were robbed during their last visit to Seattle two years ago when replacement referees stole the game from Green Bay.