The Bears are a team on the rise. Right now, though, they are a work-in-progress with a below average quarterback and caught in a bad situational spot. It only is Week 3. But the 0-2 Cardinals are in desperate straits under rookie head coach Steve Wilks. They must win this home game, or already they can forget about any playoff possibility.  Chicago is traveling a long distance on a short week after beating Seattle at home this past Monday night. Chicago is 3-8 ATS following a victory. The Bears' defense is promising, but it is not at their best yet. That won't happen until Khalil Mack and rookie Roquan Smith become 100 percent comfortable in the system.  The Cardinals have their own star pass rusher, Chandler Jones. It was Jones, not Mack, who led the NFL in sacks last season with 17. No other player had even 15 sacks. Cornerback Patrick Peterson gives Arizona the best defensive back on the field, too.  Wilks, the former defensive coordinator for Carolina, should be able to devise a sound plan going against second-year quarterback, Mitch Trubisky. The game has yet to slow down for Trubisky. He isn't any better than Sam Bradford. More mobile yes, but he lacks Bradford's veteran savvy and accuracy.  Bradford will play better once the Cardinals figure out they need to get superstar running back David Johnson in space more. Wilks has had two games now to figure that out. Johnson has been under utilized. I see Johnson being the focal point of Arizona's offense and more dangerous than in the previous two games because the Cardinals will do more to get him on the outside, including putting him in the slot, or even flanking him wide.  The Bears are going to take the Cardinals' best punch. I don't see them ready to cover more than a field goal on the road in a huge flat spot. 

It's understandable that the Rams sit on top of most people's NFL power ratings. They are strong on both sides of the ball. But I envision the Rams struggling to win this game for a number of reasons.  Sean McVay held his key players out during preseason. The Rams were able to get away with that because their opponents during the first two weeks of the regular season were the Raiders and Cardinals. Both are winless. The Chargers represent a major upgrade. The Rams are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. They don't carry a strong home field advantage especially against this opponent, which also plays now in LA. The Chargers are 15-7-1 ATS in their past 23 road contests.  It is difficult for a team to blow out the Chargers because of Philip Rivers. During their last 18 games, the Chargers have lost by more than a field goal only four times. Rivers is an elite quarterback and is having another excellent season ranking in the top-four in touchdown passes, yards, completion percentage and passer rating.  The Rams have a trio of good wide receivers in Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. But Keenan Allen is the best wide receiver on the field. He trumps them all. Rivers is especially effective when he has Allen.  Much is being made of Joey Bosa being out. Sure his absence lessens the Chargers' pass rush. But the Chargers still have Melvin Ingram and their secondary, already good, is even better this season with the addition of star rookie safety Derwin James. The Rams are missing one of their key defensive cogs, too, with linebacker Mark Barron expected to sit out a third straight game due to an Achilles injury.  The Rams' kicking game was a huge strength last season because of Greg Zuerlein. However, he's out. So the Rams are going with largely untested backup kicker, Sam Ficken.

Both teams are 0-2 and desperate. The Texans have the talent, huge defensive edge and home field to do more about it.  DeShaun Watson is getting less rusty and better each week. Getting deep threat Will Fuller back is huge for him. As good as Odell Beckham Jr. is, I would take DeAndre Hopkins over him.  The Texans are coming off one of their ugliest and most embarrassing losses in franchise history, losing 20-17 on the road to the Titans last Sunday when Tennessee was missing its three top offensive tackles, leading receiver tight end Delanie Walker and going with backup Blaine Gabbert at quarterback.  This should mean a huge maximum effort from Houston this week. The Texans' defensive line should control a disappointing Giants offense that is averaging a meager 14 points a game. Eli Manning is well past his prime. He's been terrible and so has the revamped Giants offense line. Nobody has played well on it, including left tackle Nate Solder. Manning was sacked six times in New York's Sunday night loss to the Cowboys. J.J. Watt should be able to dominate.  Pat Shurmur has not made a difference. The Giants are as bad under him as they were during Ben McAdoo's two-year stay.  Houston's offensive line is no great shakes either. But the Texans have the superior defense and Watson is extremely mobile. Those are enough important edges to ensure the Texans beat the Giants by at least a touchdown. 

Patrick Mahomes may be the league MVP through the first two weeks with his NFL record 10 touchdown passes.  But there is a flip side to the Chiefs: Their defense. It's terrible. Kansas City ranks last defensively in yards and passing yards. The Chiefs are 29th in scoring defense giving up 32.5 points per game.  The 49ers have become respectable since Jimmy Garoppolo took over as their starting quarterback. San Francisco is 6-1 in those games. I like the 49ers much more in an underdog role than as a favorite. I find them feisty and well-coached under Kyle Shanahan. They have covered in seven of their last 10 road games. The lone loss in Garoppolo's 49ers starts came opening week to the Vikings, 24-16, on the road. San Francisco could have won that game, but self-destructed.  Garoppolo was under heavy pass rush pressure from the Vikings. The Chiefs don't have a strong pass rush. They have only two sacks. Their secondary remains rudderless without star safety Eric Berry, who is expected to miss a third straight game due to a lingering heel injury.  The 49ers have a well-designed offense that can put up points. Matt Breida surprisingly leads the NFC in rushing. San Francisco has the defensive advantage here. DeForest Buckner has more sacks than the entire Chiefs team.  Yes, the Chiefs are explosive. There are going to be points scored here that's for sure. But San Francisco's defense is going to look better with the return of linebackers Reuben Foster from suspension and Malcolm Smith from a hamstring injury. Foster has the potential to be a difference maker both as a run-stopper and blitzer. 
  

I get that the Seahawks are far from what they used to be and they have three key players out - Doug Baldwin and linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. That leaves Russell Wilson, safety Earl Thomas and guard J.R. Sweezy as the only players left from their winning Super Bowl team of five years ago.  But I'm not buying this steam and public love for the Bears. Not as chalk of more than a field goal. This is foreign territory for the Bears. They aren't used to being on the national stage with all the pressure on them. Since 2015, Chicago has been a home favorite seven times. The Bears are 1-6 SU and ATS in those games with the lone victory coming against the Browns, who have failed to win in their last 19 games.  Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll are used to success. Wilson is a top-five quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky is a work-in--progress who I don't think is any good being more runner than passer. Matt Nagy has coached one NFL game and he made a lot of questionable decisions in that opening week loss to the Packers when his Bears blew a 20-0 lead letting a wounded Aaron Rodgers beat his team.  Carroll is an above average NFL coach. Nagy has much to prove. Trubisky is in his second season, but remains very inexperienced. He only started 13 games in college and his coach last year, John Fox, did him no favors with his ultra-conservative methods. Trubisky misses a lot of reads and is not an instinctive player. Seattle always has had excellent defensive coaching. The Seahawks will be ready to defend against Trubisky. The Packers defense held the Bears offense without a touchdown after Chicago's first drive.  Helping matters for the Seahawks is newly signed linbacker Mychal Kendricks. He's a good player, but is poison because of pleading guilty to insider trading. He very well could get prison time for that. The NFL suspended Kendricks for breaking the law, but he's allowed to play because he's appealing the suspension. He's expected to play tonight.   Wilson is good enough to beat the Bears just like Rodgers did. Wilson almost led Seattle to an upset road win against the Broncos last week in a 27-24 loss. He threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns against a much better secondary than the Bears. Baldwin played just 11 snaps before getting hurt. Wilson accomplished that without Baldwin catching a pass, playing with unproven running backs and a still-evolving offensive line that may be better this week. Wilson is a magician who you can't preplan against. If it weren't for a desperation final play turnover, Wilson would have finished the Broncos game with a quarterback rating of 105.3.  Baldwin isn't the Seahawks' only decent receiving weapon. Wilson has veteran Brandon Marshall, who still has some juice, speedster Tyler Lockett and promising rookie tight end Will Dissly, who showed well against Denver. Marshall and Dissly also are excellent blockers.  The Seahawks also have a secret weapon - rookie punter Michael Dickson. He was tremendous during preseason and he continued that opening week averaging 59 yards on six punts with a 57.5 net average with four of the punts downed inside the 20. This wasn't just punting in mountain weather. Dickson is that good.  Carroll has a tremendous record in prime time games with the Seahawks going 22-4-1. Seattle doesn't have nearly the team it had when it compiled many of those prime time victores but it does have big-game, big atmosphere experience. That's important. So is having the far better quarterback. That combination will help get Seahawks bettors the money.    

The 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo step way down in class here after opening against the Vikings in Minnesota last week. The 49ers still could have pulled the upset if not self-destructing deep inside Minnesota territory. Now they face a far easier defense and an offense that remains one-dimensional. Garoppolo has lost just once in eight NFL starts. The spot sets up well, too, for the 49ers. The Lions last played in California opening week of 2015. They are making the long journey on a short week following their Monday home game against the Jets. Detroit will be on an off-surface, too, playing outdoors on grass instead of indoors on carpet.  The 49ers have owned the Lions at home. The last time they lost to Detroit at home was 1975, a string of 12 victories in a row. San Francisco's held five of its last eight home opponents to 18 points or fewer last season. The line has gone up since I released the play, but I like it strong up through a touchdown. 

The Bengals are better than the Colts yet taking more than a field goal. What gives here besides Indy's home field? It's the Andrew Luck factor of course.  Sure Luck is a huge upgrade on Jacoby Brissett. But Luck is going to be rusty having not played a down last season. Luck makes the Colts better, but not good enough to seriously contend in what shapes up to be a very good AFC South Division.  The Colts have lost and failed to cover in seven of their last eight season-openers. I don't see that changing in this matchup.  Cincinnati is an average-type team. They are better defensively than the Colts and have a strong wide receiver matchup edge with A.J. Green. Joe Mixon also gives Cincinnati the best running back.  I'm not a huge fan of Marvin Lewis, but I prefer his stablility against the youthful Colts, who are breaking in a new head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and special teams coach. The Colts could have as many as nine new defensive starters. They are making the switch to a 4-3 defense from a 3-4 and the early returns are not encouraging. Their defense looks like a bottom-four type unit.  I like Cincinnati's pass rushers much better than the Colts. I'm also a fan of the Bengals' new defensive coordinator, Teryl Austin. He did a good job with the Lions. Lewis and Austin are respected defensive minds.  Much this game is focused on Luck. But the Colts are inferior to the Bengals in the pits. Football Outsiders ranked Indy's offensive line as the worst pass blocking unit in the NFL last season. The Colts aren't going to drastically change that just because they drafted a guard in the first round.  

I could write this analysis in two words: Blake Bortles. He's not beating the Steelers on the road.

Seattle is one of those teams in must-win mode Sunday. If the Seahawks beat the Cardinals and Carolina defeats or ties Atlanta then Seattle makes the playoffs. The Panthers-Falcons game has been moved back to start at the same time as the Cardinals-Seahawks matchup. The Panthers are in the postseason but have motivation to beat the Falcons as they have a chance to gain a No. 2 seeding and a first-round bye with a victory.   I don't see the Seahawks losing to the Cardinals, who are extremely banged-up, have performed poorly on the road and have a stiff at quarterback in Drew Stanton.  Russell Wilson is in the MVP discussion having his finest season. The Cardinals have a strong run defense, but are mediocre versus the pass. Wilson has the receiving depth and mobility to be highly effective against the Cardinals defense.  Arizona has has lost five of its seven road contests while going 1-6 ATS. The Cardinals' two away victories were against the 3-12 Colts in overtime and the 49ers, who were winless at the time.  In their last three games, the Cardinals have managed just two touchdowns. Their offensive line is decimated with D.J. Humphries, Jared Veldheer, Mike Iupati and Earl Watford all out. Seattle's defensive front seven should easily win the battle of the trenches. Arizona is down to third-stringer Kerwynn Williams as its main runner with David Johnson and Adrian Peterson out.  Seattle has maybe the toughest outdoor venue for opponents in the NFL. The Seahawks have revenge for the Cardinals beating them on Christmas Eve last year that knocked them out of the No. 2 seed. The Seahawks have a special dislike for Stanton still recalling his sideline celebration from four years ago when the Cardinals defeated them at Century Link Field.  The 33-year-old Stanton wasn't good then and he's not good now. He's completed only 51.2 percent of his throws, which is right in line with his career percent. He is an inaccurate, career journeyman who lacks pass protection and a ground game.  The Cardinals are tied for fifth in the NFL in giveaways with 24, including turning the ball over twice during each of their last five games. The hard-hitting Seahawks defense, headed by Bobby Wagner and Earl Thomas, can take advantage. The Legion of Boom is wounded, but far from dead holding the Cowboys to no touchdowns this past Sunday despite the game being played in Dallas and Ezekiel Elliott's return from suspension.Now the Seahawks are home against a much weaker offense. The line has climbed since I released this play, but I see this as a total kill spot for the Seahawks.  

Tough spot for the Bears traveling on a short week. Baltimore plays much better at home. The Ravens are 11-0 versus foes starting a rookie QB against them, which is the case here with the Bears and Mitch Trubisky. 

Ravens defense is far more intimidating at home. Joe Flacco is having a terrible year, but he's getting better each week as more rust comes off. He can put up enough points against a weak Bears secondary. 

OK, I'm sold now that Cam Newton is the MVP Cam Newton of two years ago. He's thrown for 651 yards and accounted for seven touchdowns during the last two weeks. Carolina is averaging 30 points during this span.  The Eagles' secondary is well below average and their pass rush is down without injured Fletcher Cox. He's missed the last two games and isn't likely to return to the lineup on a short week.  Carolina has held five of its last seven opponents to 20 points or less at home. The Eagles are short on running backs with Wendall Smallwood injured and Darren Sproles out for the season. The Eagles also will be without right tackle Lane Johnson, one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL. He suffered a concussion this past Sunday. Philadelphia has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 away contests.  It's a big disadvantage for the road team playing on Thursday because of the short week. In the Eagles' case, this is made worse by facing a non-division foe. 

The Bengals are down this year. But they still are two levels higher than the Browns, who are 1-18 in their last 19 games.  The Bengals have dominated this series winning and covering the last five times with every win during this span occurring by at least 13 points.  Cincinnati has a much stronger defense than Cleveland and its skill position players are superior, too. The Browns have no wide receiver near the level of A.J. Green. Corey Coleman is Cleveland's top wideout and he's out. Joe Mixon also is better than any running back Cleveland has.  I'm not an Andy Dalton fan, but he rates much higher than rookie Deshone Kizer. Dalton has thrown nine TD passes with no interceptions during his last four games against the Browns. The Browns were missing their best defensive player, linebacker Jamie Collins, last week due to a concussion. It's an added plus for the Bengals if Collins is out again. 

Aside from Aaron Rodgers, the Packers' two most important players are defensive lineman Mike Daniels and offensive left tackle David Bakhtiari. Neither is expected to play against the Bengals.  The Packers may have offensive right tackle Byran Bulaga and wide receiver Jordy Nelson  - stressing the maybe - but the Packers are going to be without star pass rusher Nick Perry, probably linebacker Jake Ryan and wide receiver Randall Cobb. The Packers also have several injuries in their secondary.  So Green Bay is far from 100 percent. The Bengals are a desperate 0-2 team. The Bengals have been a major disappointment offensively, but their defense is solid. Cincinnati had made the playoffs five straight seasons until last year. Only one of their last six defeats have been by more than five points.  Cincinnati has too much skill position talent for its offense to stay this bad. The Bengals' work-in-progress offensive line catches a huge break with Daniels not likely to play. A change in offensive coordinators from Ken Zampese to Bill Lazor could spur immediate improvement while boosting sagging team morale. A.J. Green is the best receiver on the field. Lazor will make sure Green and promising rookie running back Joe Mixon are big parts of the offense.  The Bengals have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played in the Thursday game last week. The Bengals have been a jinx team to Mike McCarthy and Rodgers as they've never beaten them. 

The Cowboys couldn't solve the Giants' defense last year averaging just 13 points versus New York in two games. The Giants won both of those games. They've now covered five in a row against Dallas winning three and losing the other two by just one and three points, respectively.  The Giants have many of their same starters back on defense, including a strong secondary that is able to negate Dez Bryant and take advantage of Dak Prescott's inexperience. On the flip side, the Cowboys have a vulnerable secondary that Eli Manning can exploit with his improved receiving group that now includes Brandon Marshall to go with Odell Beckham Jr. and emerging Sterling Shepard.  A lot went Dallas' way last year. You could make a strong argument the Giants are the better team. They were a hot 9-2 down the stretch last season before being eliminated in the playoffs by the Packers. Dallas' home field advantage is not worth this many points as the Giants very well could win this game straight-up. 

The Bengals are back to being a legitimate playoff contender, while the Ravens are likely to keep regressing due to a poor offense. Baltimore's defense isn't nearly the dominant force of years past. The Ravens don't have enough pieces to keep up with all of Cincinnati's skill position talent. A.J. Green always has been a Ravens-killer while being a consensus top-five wide receiver. Tight end Tyler Eifert is healthy, unlike last year. He's a premier tight end red zone threat. Added to this mix are good looking running back Joe Mixon and speedster rookie wide receiver John Ross.  The best case scenario for the Ravens would be if Joe Flacco started instead of Ryan Mallet, who is one of the worst backup QB's in the league. Flacco is expected to start, but he'll be extremely rusty having not played during preseason recovering from knee surgery and a bad back.  The Ravens' offensive line is in flux due to injuries and the unexpected retirement of center Urschel. Kenneth Dixon, probably the team's best runner, is out with injury as is tight end Dennis Pitta. There just isn't any way the Ravens can keep up with the Bengals' talent-laced skill position players.  Then there is the road factor. This is the first time Cincinnati is opening at home since 2009. The Bengals have dominated this series winning seven of the last 10, including going 5-0 at home. The Ravens have lost at Cincinnati by an average of 12 1/2-points the past two seasons - and the gap seems wider this year.  Baltimore is far less intimidating on the road. That's reflected in a 4-13 regular-season away mark. The Ravens have lost their past six road games. Their lone road victories last season occurred against the Browns and Jaguars. 

I believe the Chiefs are bogus and will get exposed here. 

Steelers minus 10 hosting Dolphins

The Vikings are the fresher team having played last Thursday and have playoff incentive something the Jaguars lack.

Minnesota gives up the third-fewest yards per game and fourth-fewest points. The Jaguars are averaging just 17.5 points per contest during their last eight games. Minnesota yields just 17.4 points per game. 

This is one game where you should have a good idea of where the turnovers are going to fall. The Vikings are No. 2 in the NFL in takeaways/giveaways at plus 13. The Jaguars are last at minus 18. 

Blake Bortles has more pick-sixs than wins during his three-year NFL career. 

Expect the Seahawks to take no prisoners here in a double revenge spot against the Panthers, who beat them in the regular season and playoffs last season. 
The Seahawks are at their finest during the home stretch going 18-4 SU, 16-6 ATS from November through January during the regular season. 
Seattle has the best outdoor home advantage in football and the Seahawks fans will be rocking here in this nationally televised matchup. The Seahawks have gotten healthier while the Panthers are demoralized and extremely banged-up.
Cam Newton is having a down season. The Panthers haven't been able to protect him giving up 32 sacks. Carolina is down to its third-string center. Seattle has star safety Earl Thomas back and elite pass rusher Michael Bennett should be back, too. 
Russell Wilson is finally healthy. That makes him a dual threat. He'll take advantage of a Carolina defense missing its leading tackler and emotional leader, Luke Kuechly, top pass rusher Mario Addison, who leads the team with nine sacks, and free safety Kurt Coleman. All three are injured.