This is the lowest total on the Week 13 NFL betting board. So taking more than a field goal is huge even though it's with Jacksonville. 
The Jaguars are poorly coached and have injuries with Chris Ivory, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas all likely not to play.
But the Broncos are in worst shape offensively with a below par ground attack, mediocre offensive line and rookie Paxton Lynch forced to make a road start. Jacksonville has a very underrated secondary having not allowed more than 280 yards passing to any quarterback. The Broncos figure to be ultra-conservative with Lynch, which isn't a great ingredient to cover a spread as road chalk. 
Denver's defense has surrendered 83 points in its last three games. The Broncos' defense still is very good, but it's not as dominant as last season. Blake Bortles brings a huge mobility element. 
The Jaguars have come very close at home nearly upsetting Green Bay opening week, losing to the Ravens by two points, beating the Colts and falling to the Texans by three. Jacksonville could have won all of those games. The Jaguars' only bad home loss was to the 9-2 Raiders. 
Given the Broncos' limited resources offensively, the Jaguars should be in for another close call at home. 

Dallas is on a tremendous roll, but that stops here. The Cowboys aren't that strong to be laying this number on the road against this classy of a defense and against this strong of a home field, which ranks among the best in football. 
Stefon Diggs is expected to play, which is huge for the Vikings. Sam Bradford's short passing game will be a lot more effective at home and with Diggs in the lineup. The Cowboys do not have a strong secondary. Their defense relies on their offense to play ball control. 
The Vikings give up the second-fewest points and third-fewest yards. The short time frame also hurts the visiting Cowboys. 

Talent-wise the Packers are better than the Eagles. Philadelphia is tough at home, but Green Bay is way overdue to play better. I see that occurring here as the Packers are improved on offense and their defense is getting key players back. Clay Matthews played last week and cornerback Damarious Randall and linebacker Jake Ryan are expected back Monday. 
The Packers have outstanding wide receiver depth. Cornerback is a major weakness for the Eagles. One player Aaron Rodgers will look to target is seventh-round rookie draft choice Jalen Mills. Rodgers has the receiving depth to go after Mills with Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. It's a plus for Green Bay's offense that tight end Jared Cook is back. James Starks provides enough of a running threat for the Eagles to respect play-action. 
Carson Wentz lacks the playmakers Green Bay has. He's inconsistent as most rookies are and won't be able to match Rodgers. The Eagles have the worst receivers in the league and their best running back, Ryan Mathews, is out. 
Green Bay's defense has been torched the past few weeks. But the Packers' last four games have been against very strong offenses - Redskins, Titans, Colts and Falcons. All of those teams have above average quarterbacks. The Eagles don't. 
Much is made of Green Bay not playing well, but the Eagles are just 1-3 in their last four games. This is the right time now to jump on the Packers. 

Credit Jack Del Rio with doing a great job this season with the Raiders. Having said that, though, I believe the Raiders are very overrated. Yes, they are 8-2. But they've also been outgained on the season, have committed the most penalties in the league by far and are 1-3 ATS in games played in Oakland. 
The Panthers are showing signs of what made them last season's NFC champions. They have won three of their last four games holding all of these foes - including New Orleans and Arizona - to fewer than 21 points. 
Carolina has won straight-up the last four times it has been an underdog. The Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games and have also failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've played a below .500 opponent. 
The Panthers' ground attack is due to pick up now that Jonathan Stewart is back in the lineup. The Raiders have yielded 100 yards rushing in all but three of their games. 
The timing isn't good either for the Raiders here. They just played Monday night in high, high altitude and dirty air in Mexico City having to go to the wire to beat Houston. Oakland's defense was on the field for more than 36 minutes in that victory. 

You have to go back to the opening game of the 2012 season to find the last time Baltimore beat Cincinnati by more than four points. Since then the Bengals have dominated this series winning the past five times. 
The Bengals have made the playoffs the past five years. That streak is in serious jeopardy if the Bengals lose this game. Cincinnati isn't as good as it has been the last few years. However, the Ravens are in down mode, too, better than last season but not nearly as good as their playoff team of two years ago. 
This is a key divisional showdown between two good defensive teams with mediocre quarterbacks so points are at a premium. I want this many points going for me here.
Both teams are averaging exactly 19.9 points per game. Andy Dalton is merely a game manager minus top wide receiver A.J. Green. But Joe Flacco is worse ranking 27th in the passer ratings. 
Much is made of the Bengals losing Green and running back Giovani Bernard to injuries in last week's 16-12 loss to Buffalo. But the Ravens have injuries, too, in their offensive line and at cornerback where Jimmy Smith, their top pass defender, is questionable after missing last week.
The Ravens are the second-most penalized team in the NFL. The Bengals have committed the seventh fewest penalties. The Ravens aren't good enough to lay this many points here against this prideful and playoff-experienced foe that has covered 15 of the last 22 times following a loss. 

Arizona is better than its 4-5-1 record. The Cardinals are in must-win mode and the pointspread has become inflated. 
David Johnson is a top-three running back and the Cardinals' defense gives up the fewest yards per game. The Cardinals get back key playmaking safety Tyrann Mathieu and have All-Pro cornerback to shadow Julio Jones. 
The Falcons don't generate much pass pressure and their offense is less effective when Jones can be handled in single coverage. Peterson is one of the few cornerbacks capable of handling Jones. 

The answer is yes I can trust the Titans on the road - against this battered foe whose season is shot.
Tennessee is in must-win mode at 5-6. Marcus Mariota showed potential as a rookie last season and he has burst out into star status during the last seven weeks throwing 19 touchdown passes with just three interceptions during this span. The Titans are averaging 31 points during this time frame. 
The Titans aren't one-dimensional offensively. DeMarco Murray still is an elite running back. He has five 100-yard rushing games this season. 
Injuries have turned the Bears from a slightly-below .500 type team into a bottom feeder ranking among the five worst teams in the NFL. 
Chicago may shut down Jay Cutler, who has no chance of sparking an offense composed of backup receivers and backup offensive linemen. Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller are Cutler's two top targets. Jeffery is suspended and Miller is likely done for the year after suffering a broken foot this past Sunday. The Bears have multiple offensive line injuries, too, along with key defensive players out or suspended. 
About the only strength Chicago had was its run defense, but that is now a weakness, too, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman missing last week. Mariota and Murray can light up this defense. 
Dick LeBeau has improved Tennessee's defense. The Titans now have a respectable pass rush. Their secondary is vulnerable, but the Bears lack the necessary passing attack to take advantage. 
Chicago's home field advantage is just about nil. The Bears have dropped 12 of their last 15 at Solider Field going 5-10 ATS in those games. 

Minnesota owned the best defense in the NFL during the first five weeks holding opponents to 12.6 points per game in opening 5-0. 
The Vikings then got cold losing four in a row averaging 14 points a game during this span. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner bailed early this month and there were offensive line injuries. One of the Vikings' defeats during this time frame came to the Lions, 22-16, in overtime. The Vikings were playing their worst ball during this time yet the Lions were going to lose if not for a 58-yard field goal by Matt Prater at the end of regulation that forced overtime. 
Minnesota is playing better now having just defeated the Cardinals, 30-24, at home. The disadvantage of playing on the road on Thursday is mitigated here by the short travel and the Vikings familiarity with the Lions, who they played less than three weeks ago. 
Neither team can run the ball. Matthew Stafford was hot early in the season, but has cooled off considerably. He has not passed for more than 278 yards during his last seven games. The Lions could manage only one touchdown on offense versus the lowly Jaguars at home last Sunday. Stafford is averaging one touchdown pass per game in his last four games. That's not impressive in today's pass happy, offensive-skewed NFL. 
The Vikings hold a strong defensive and coaching edge here. Mike Zimmer is a defensive guru and he knows how to defend Stafford. The Lions are averaging 16.8 points in regulation in five games against the Zimmer-coached Vikings. Not once have the Lions been able to reach 20 points against Minnesota in regulation during the Zimmer era. 
The Vikings are used now to playing indoors on turf. Their offense showed signs of improvement last week more comfortable now that new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur has had a few weeks to get acclimated. 

I consider the Patriots to be the team to beat in the Super Bowl. At the other end, I consider the 49ers right there with the Browns as the worst team in the NFL. 
You can talk that this is a long trip for the Patriots and they won't have injured Rob Gronkowski. But the Patriots still should bury this opponent especially given the circumstances.
New England just lost at home to Seattle. That doesn't sit well with Bill Belichick. The Patriots have covered 74 percent of the time following a defeat during the past 43 instances. 
Since Week 1, the 49ers have gone 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS. Their defense has fallen apart due to their best players getting hurt and fatigue from their offense playing at such a fast-tempo. In their last eight games, the 49ers are giving up an average of 35 points and 460 yards.
The Patriots are averaging 32 points per contest since Tom Brady came back from suspension five games ago. Brady has the highest passer rating in the league at 125.5 with a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. LeGarrette Blount has put up the most touchdowns of any non-quarterback. Gronkowski is the best tight end in football. But Martellius Bennett is a top-10 talent. 
San Francisco's offense has improved since Colin Kaepernick took over from Blaine Gabbert. But it remains limited and well below average. The 49ers are not going to be able to keep up with a motivated and mad Patriots squad that has an elite offense. 

The Lions haven't won a game by more than six points all season. They have a six-point overtime victory. Their other four victories were by a combined 11 points. 
The Jaguars actually gain more yards per game and give up fewer yards per game than the Lions. The Jaguars have outgained their last two opponents - Chiefs and Texans - by close to 280 yards. Those two teams are a combined 13-5. 
Jacksonville has an underrated pass defense and skill position talent. The Lions have a below average defense that was torched by Case Keenum at home and rank 27th in rushing yards. 
Matthew Stafford has tailed off after a hot start. He's gone six games in a row without topping 270 yards passing. Blake Bortles has been turnover prone, but he's connected for multiple touchdown passes in his last three games and is facing a Lions secondary that gives up the third-most touchdown passes and a league-high 112.4 passer rating. 

It's tough to step in against the Cowboys, who have won and covered every game since opening week. But Dallas' line is inflated here. The Ravens are well-coached and strong defensively allowing 17.8 points a game. Only three teams give up fewer points per game. No team yields fewer yards and rushing yards per game than Baltimore. 
The Ravens' four losses were by a combined 19 points for an average loss of 4.7 points. 
The Cowboys are flirting with danger. They narrowly defeated Pittsburgh last week pulling the game out late in a very hard fought battle. The Cowboys also had to go through the distraction of welcoming Tony Romo back this week. The Ravens, on the other hand, are on extra rest having played last Thursday. 
As a home favorite of six or more points, the Cowboys have failed to cover 14 of the last 17 times. 

At first this spread may seem a little high. But New England is the best team in football while Seattle is down from past seasons and caught in a horrendous situational spot.
New England is 4-0 since Tom Brady returned. Brady has the highest QB rating in the league by far at 133.9. He's thrown 12 touchdown passes without an interception. The Patriots are averaging 34.2 points per game in Brady's four games winning by 20, 18, 11 and 16 points. 
Seattle lacks the skill position talent and offensive line to keep up with Brady. The Seahawks' grit and guts can't overcome that talent gap especially when they're missing at least one key defensive player. Safety Kam Chancellor may return this week, but star pass rusher Michael Bennett remains out. 
Making things worse for Seattle is the situation. The Patriots were idle last week. New England is 11-2 the past 13 times off a bye, 8-5 ATS. The extra practice time should make Brady even sharper. The Patriots also could get back Deion Lewis for this game, which would upgrade their ground attack and give Brady an upgrade pass-catcher out of the backfield. 
The Seahawks just played on Monday night at home in a tough physical, down-to-the-last-minute victory against Buffalo. Now the Seahawks have to travel 3,000 miles on a short week playing in a time zone with a three-hour difference. 

I'm not buying the Saints being favored against the defending world champions whose defense remains elite. 
Denver ranks No. 1 against the pass holding foes to 183.3 yards through the air. Overall, Denver has the fourth-ranked defense. Von Miller has 9 1/2 sacks. He's the most feared pass rusher in football with J.J. Watt out. Drew Brees is not going to be able to pick Denver's secondary apart. 
By contrast, the Saints rank last in pass defense. Trevor Siemian isn't in Brees' class, not even close. However, the bar is set much lower for him facing such a terrible defense. The Saints are tied for last in sacks with just 11. Siemian has played better on the road, too, with eight touchdown throws and only one interception in four away matchups. 

Rarely, if ever, am I going to recommend playing the Browns this season. Cleveland's talent level isn't better than expansion level and its priority this season is playing for the future not necessarily winning games.
However, this is that rare spot where the Browns are worth backing. 
Baltimore is struggling mightily on offense. The change in offensive coordinators from Marc Trestman to Marty Mornhinweg three games ago hasn't helped. Joe Flacco is having one of his worst seasons with a 76 passer rating, the Ravens' ground game has been ineffective and their offensive line has been banged-up and isn't playing well either. There haven numerous mistakes and penalties. 
The Ravens are playing on a short week after just beating their biggest division rival, Pittsburgh, this past Sunday due in part to a rusty Ben Roethlisberger. The Ravens could manage only 274 yards against a Steelers defense that ranked 27th in total yards entering the matchup. If you discount Mike Wallace's 95-yard touchdown catch, which came on a slant patter where Wallace took advantage of a missed tackle, the Ravens averaged less than three yards per play versus the Steelers. 
The Ravens have been outgained their last five games. Not one of Baltimore's games this season have been decided by more than eight points. 
The Browns are playing for next year, but they sure don't want to go winless. Their defense is better now with Jamie Collins than what it was in Week 2 when they lost to the Ravens, 25-20. The Browns led 20-0 in that game. They won't lack for motivation here and their familiarity with Baltimore is a key playing on Thursday. The Browns beat the Ravens, 33-30, at Baltimore last season. 

Count me among those not impressed by Buffalo. I think the Bills' coaching is below par, their passing game is weak and the defense not nearly as good as it was two years ago when Jim Schwartz was the defensive coordinator and before Rex Ryan came on board. 
Seattle has a couple of defensive injuries with Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett out. The Seahawks still are very strong defensively. Buffalo could be missing two of its key offensive players if LeSean McCoy and left tackle Cody Glenn can't play due to injuries. The Bills actually would be doing the wise thing by holding out McCoy giving his sore hamstring another two weeks of rest since the team has a bye following this game.
Injuries have limited Russell Wilson into being merely a glorified game manager. But Wilson is healthy now restoring his dangerous dual threat capability. I can see a big game coming from him. The Bills aren't likely to have run-stuffer Marcell Dareus. So the Seahawks should be able to run, which makes Wilson even more effective.
The Bills are making a cross country journey into the toughest outdoor venue in the NFL. Since 2013, the Seahawks have won 28 of 32 home games. 

Love the Chargers as 'dogs, hate them as favorites where they are 1-5 ATS the past six times in that role losing straight-up in four of those games. 
Tennessee just may be the best team in the AFC South Division. Now perhaps that's faint praise, but Tennessee is vastly improved in all areas. 
Backed by a resurgent DeMarco Murray and what now has become a decent offensive line, Marcus Mariota has thrown multiple touchdown passes during the last four weeks. The Titans have scored 26 or more points in each of their last four games. Consequently, San Diego gives up 26.5 points a game to rank 24th in scoring defense. The Chargers also are 24th in pass defense.
Philip Rivers bravely soldiers on as the Chargers are one of the more banged-up teams in the league with a cluster injury problem at linebacker, down their best cornerback and with multiple receiver injuries. Rivers already has been playing minus his best receiver, Keenan Allen, and dependable third-down back Danny Woodhead. 
Dick LeBeau has helped coach up the Titans defense, which should get cornerback Perrish Cox back this week. The Titans' confidence is high after dismantling the Jaguars. They've also had extra time since that victory came last Thursday. 
This isn't a great spot for the Chargers, who have yet to have their bye. The Chargers lost to Oakland on the road in a division game four weeks ago. Then the Chargers upset Denver at home on national television in another division game. That was followed by an upset overtime road win against the Falcons and then last week the Chargers played another AFC West game losing a tough one to the Broncos in a huge matchup. 

The Chiefs are a conservative, grind-out team not built to cover margins past a touchdown. Now the Chiefs will be without Alex Smith. The Chiefs already are thin at running back and have an overrated defense that doesn't apply much of a pass rush. That problem isn't likely to be corrected until Justin Houston returns to the lineup and he's not ready this week. 
The Jaguars do possess talent - on both sides of the ball. Blake Bortles has regressed this season, but still rates a clear edge over Chiefs back-up quarterback journeyman Nick Foles. The Chiefs are much more vulnerable to turnovers now with the downgrade from efficient game-manager Smith to Foles. 
Jacksonville has had extra prep and rest time for this matchup. The Jaguars are off an embarrassing Thursday night loss to the Titans. The Jaguars fired their offensive coordinator following the loss to the Titans. That could provide a needed spark. 
But mainly this handicap is a fade on the Chiefs, who are overpriced at home - where they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at Arrowhead - and taking advantage of Kansas City's injuries at the skill positions.  

In Mike Zimmer we trust. The Vikings are coming off two terrible offensive performances. Their vaunted defense didn't cover themselves with glory either in an embarrassing Monday night road loss to the Bears. 
Norv Turner, the team's highly respected offensive coordinator, quit this week, too. The trade-off for all of this is getting the Vikings at home at a decent price against the Lions, a team that made Case Keenum look like a Pro Bowl quarterback three weeks ago when they were home and failed to keep the Texans and Brock Osweiler from scoring 20 points this past Sunday. 
How underrated is Zimmer? Minnesota has covered 19 of its last 24 games. The Vikings are 10-3 ATS as chalk. They have covered the past six times at home, including all three times this season. Minnesota has won five of those games with the only defeat coming, 10-9, in the playoffs last season when Vikings kicker Blair Walsh missed a 27-yard field goal with 22 seconds left. 
The Vikings are back home after two straight road defeats. Detroit's one-dimensional offense is going to have problems against the Vikings, who rank No. 1 in scoring defense and in the top four in fewest yards allowed and pass defense. Opponents average less than 15 points against Minnesota. 
I have little doubt the Vikings defense will do their job especially in their new stadium, which rivals any as far as providing Minnesota with a home field advantage. 
The key for the Vikings in covering this number is how much offense can they produce? Pat Schurmur replaces Turner as offensive coordinator. He actually might be a better fit since he has a history and closeness with Sam Bradford. Jerick McKinnon is expected to play after missing the Bears game. That would give the Vikings a back who can get outside plus a receiving threat out of the backfield to go with inside runner Matt Asiata. 
The Lions also have multiple key defensive injuries, the most important being to cornerback Darius Slay. He's dealing with a hamstring injury and may be held out another week since the Lions have a bye following this game. 

The Vikings are vastly superior to the Bears, a true Super Bowl contender. Chicago is one of the five worst teams in the NFL. 
This is a Monday night home game for the Bears. But they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. People in Illinois are excited about the Cubs in the World Series not the Bears. The Vikings are going to have their share of fans for this game so the Bears have a limited home field advantage.
Minnesota is a point spread machine under Mike Zimmer covering 19 of the last 23 times. The Vikings are off an upset loss to the Eagles. Minnesota didn't play well in that game perhaps because it came following its bye week. Look for Zimmer to have the Vikings fully ready and motivated for this matchup. 
The Vikings entered this week ranked No. 1 defensively in fewest yards and points allowed. The Bears have Jay Cutler back at quarterback. That's not necessarily a plus for them. Cutler is a lame duck who the Bears don't want to keep after this season. Cutler's teammates rarely respond well  to him. 
Chicago gives an effort defensively. The Bears just have too many injuries, though, and not enough talent. They rank among the bottom 12 in points surrendered. 
This is a mismatch not fully reflected in the point spread. 

This is too many points for the Cowboys to lay in this fierce division rivalry.
The Cowboys are 3-12 ATS the past 15 times they've been a home favorite. The Eagles have defeated Dallas in five of the last six meetings, including the past three times on the road.
Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott both have exceeded expectations. The Cowboys have the better skill position players, but I like the Eagles defense better. 
The Cowboys lack a pass rush. They have just nine sacks. The Eagles' defense has been much better than perceived ranking third in fewest points and fifth in yards allowed. 
Dallas had a bye last week. That could work against the Cowboys as they had plenty of momentum before then. Too many times a team goes into their bye on a roll, hears how great they are and than is flat the following week. It happened to the Eagles and it just happened to the Vikings this past Sunday. 

It's rare to get Bill Belichick and his Patriots in a same season revenge game. But that's the case here as the Bills shut out the Patriots, 16-0, in Week 4. New England was forced to play third-string rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett in that game. 
Now Tom Brady is back. The Patriots are going to be extremely fired-up for this game. They had never been shut out at home in the 15-year history of Gillette Stadium before that first Buffalo game. 
Brady has numerous offensive weapons. LeGarrette Blount is having a big year, too, providing the Patriots with a needed power back. 
The situation is quite different than it was four weeks ago when Brady still was under suspension and the Bills had a healthy LeSean McCoy. Not only is McCoy hobbled by a hamstring injury, but the Bills also are without their best receiver, Sammy Watkins. Tyrod Taylor is an excellent running quarterback, but he's not a strong downfield passer. Belichick will be able to defend Buffalo's one dimensional attack. Taylor needs weapons to succeed. He doesn't have them. 
The Bills' 4-3 record is deceiving. Besides taking advantage of New England's dire quarterback problems, they also beat the Rams and 49ers. Miami exposed Buffalo this past Sunday outgaining the Bills by 187 yards and holding a 14-minute time possession edge. 
The Bills don't figure to hang around based on turnovers either as New England quarterbacks haven't thrown an interception all season.
Before losing to the Bills, the Patriots had defeated Buffalo 30 of the past 32 times. The Patriots have rolled past the Bills by a touchdown or more in 21 of their last 27 victories. New England has a bye the following week. The Patriots are 4-0 SU and ATS the past four times before a bye. They will be holding nothing back. This is a kill spot for the Patriots with the talent and situation stacked in their favor. 

The Falcons are playing well, but face both a physical and mental letdown returning home from back-to-back road games against the bruising Broncos and Seahawks. 
This game figures to be a shootout between Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan. The Chargers are 2-4, but could be undefeated with better luck. They have outscored their opponents by 18 points. So their record is highly misleading.
The Chargers' confidence is up, though, after they beat the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos. That occurred last Thursday so the Chargers have had ample time to rest and prepare. Rivers can definitely take advantage of a soft Falcons defense that has multiple injuries at linebacker and doesn't rush the passer well.
San Diego has covered 20 of the last 29 times it has been a road 'dog. Mike McCoy has been under fire as Chargers head coach, but his team has covered eight of their past 10 games. 

This line is off. These teams aren't even, which the oddsmaker is insinuating opening the game Houston minus 3 with home-field usually worth a field goal. 
The Texans have a strong defense. They rank fifth in fewest yards allowed and are No. 1 in pass defense. 
The Colts have a defense for the ages - the dark ages. It's one of their worst ever, which is saying a lot. Indy just allowed the Bears and backup quarterback Brian Hoyer to roll up 522 yards in a six-point home win that was closer than the score may indicate. 
The Texans beat the Bears by nine points opening week and the Bears have regressed since then due to multiple injuries. 
I'm not a fan of Brock Osweiler. But the Texans' offensive line should be much improved with the return of left tackle Duane Brown. Osweiler has a top-five wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and a solid running back in Lamar Miller. 
The Colts are giving up 29.6 points a game, fourth-worst in the NFL, and are 30th in yards given up. 
Indy wins games by outscoring opponents in shootouts. The Colts have been fortunate to draw below average defenses in four of their first five games. Their offensive line is inexperienced and can't protect Andrew Luck, who already has been sacked 20 times. The Texans have a strong pass rush even without injured J.J. Watt with emerging stars Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus. 
Look for the Texans to dominate both lines of scrimmage - and the game. 

I like the Chiefs a lot here for three main reasons: They are the superior team. The situation. And the line value with the Raiders opening the favorite. 
Oakland is much improved. Granted. But the Chiefs have won five of the past six meetings. They have the better defense and superior ground attack. Derek Carr is an emerging star. Alex Smith wins, though. The Chiefs are 13-3 in their last 16 games with Smith behind center. 
The Raiders are facing a triple whammy here. They are fat and happy riding a three-game winning streak, including holding off San Diego this past Sunday for a big AFC West Division victory. 
The Chiefs are off their worst loss since Andy Reid took over - an embarrassing 43-14 nationally televised Sunday night loss to the Steelers. That was two weeks ago. The Chiefs were idle last week. So they will have had two weeks to stew about that defeat. 
No coach is better off a bye than Reid. His Eagles and Chiefs teams are 15-2 after being idle the week before. That's 88 percent for a 17-game sampling. 
Oakland has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 home contests. The Raiders are 7-23 ATS the past 30 times laying points, including failing to cover the past five times they've been home chalk. 
The Raiders may not have their best running back, Latavius Murray, again. The Chiefs' star running back, Jamaal Charles, should be ready now for full-time duty. Smith has weapons with Charles, Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin. The Raiders give up the most total yards and passing yards in the NFL. They also rank 27th in run defense. 

San Diego has lost its last 10 AFC West matchups. I don't see that streak ending with this game. 
The Chargers are banged-up in the secondary - missing two of their three best cornerbacks in Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers - and Philip Rivers doesn't have several of his key offensive weapons, including Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. The Chargers' offensive line is going to have problems handling Von Miller, who already has 6 1/2 sacks, and the rest of the Denver pass rush. 
The Falcons were able to run on the Chargers. I don't see the Chargers doing that. Melvin Gordon has found the end zone this year, but he's far from an elite running back. 
Denver is fuming from losing at home to Atlanta. The Broncos defense did their job even though it permitted more than 20 points for the first time in 10 games. The Broncos were done in by the inexperience of rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch starting his first NFL game. Denver's blocking was below par, too, minus right tackle Donald Stephenson and tight end Virgil Green.
Word is both Stephenson and Green will be ready for Thursday game. Another key is that regular quarterback Trevor Siemian also will be ready. 
Broncos coach Gary Kubiak is expected to miss the game, hospitalized because of complex migraines. I see this as even more incentive for the Broncos to win one for their coach especially coming off a home loss. 
San Diego may have the worst home field advantage of any team in the league. The Chargers find ways to lose nearly every week having blown leads to the Chiefs, Colts and Saints. Now they draw the defending champs, a team that really knows how to win. 

The Bengals are at least a whole another tier higher than Dallas. The Cowboys are thrilled when they beat the lowly 49ers. The Bengals - who have made the playoffs five straight years - expect to the beat the 49ers. That's a huge difference between these two. 
The Cowboys lack the experience at the skill position the Bengals have. They also don't have Cincinnati's veteran savvy. 
The Bengals have covered in nine of their last 10 road contests, while Dallas has lost straight-up eight of its last nine home games. 
The Cowboys gave up 300-yard passing games to Brian Hoyer and Kirk Cousins. They allowed Eli Manning to throw for three touchdowns. Dallas doesn't have the pass rush nor the secondary to defend against A.J. Green. The Cowboys aren't going to get passes air-mailed to them like they did this past Sunday with Blaine Gabbert.

The Chargers are 1-3, but have outscored their opponents by 13 points. The Raiders are 3-1 and have outscored their foes by two points.
The Chargers have led by double-digits at halftime in three of their games. They have blown three fourth-quarter leads. They are a frustrated bunch who are averaging more than 30 points a game and have a decent secondary.
Philip Rivers has a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and is on pace to throw for 4,440 yards. He's having another splendid season. Melvin Gordon has rushed for six touchdowns. The Chargers will get their points against a Raiders defense that ranks in the bottom-three in total yards, rush yards and pass yards. 
The Raiders are returning from their third long trip in four weeks. They aren't as desperate as the Chargers, who also have double-revenge motivation. 

This is going to be a defensive, grind-it-out type of game as reflected in the total, which is the second-lowest on the Week 5 menu. So taking a lot of points makes sense especially given the matchup and spot. 
The Texans get a big boost to their offense with left tackle Duane Brown slated to make his season debut. I'm not a fan of Brock Osweiler, but steady Lamar Miller and Brown back will take the pressure off the Houston quarterback. Miller is a "B" type running back who forces the Vikings to respect the run.  
Minnesota has an outstanding defense, but so does Houston. The Texans give up the fewest passing yards per game. They've allowed only one touchdown throw all season, none in their past three games. Only four teams yield fewer yards per game than the Texans, who surrender barely 18 points per game.
The Vikings employ backup running backs and aren't likely to have their top wide receiver and spark plug, Stefon Diggs. That leaves Sam Bradford, who is still learning the offense, without a reliable target. 
This spot isn't good either for Minnesota. The Vikings showcased their new stadium three weeks ago against Green Bay on Sunday night, knocked off defending NFC champion Carolina on the road two weeks ago in a prove-it-to-me matchup and defeated the Giants at home this past Monday night. The Vikings have a bye after this game.This matchup for the Vikings is against a non-marquee, non-division opponent, a letdown for them after their previous three challenges and high profile games. 

Maybe the oddsmaker hasn't caught on yet. But the Vikings' home field advantage, with their new indoor $16 billion stadium, is worth four points right there and these teams are not even. The Vikings are much better.
So I'm locking into this point spread now as I envision it to go higher during the week when more people start playing attention.
The Vikings are a physical, disciplined team with excellent coaching and a defense that is becoming more dominant week to week, which isn't surprising given the tremendous talent at each position. The Vikings have held the Titans to 16 points, the Packers to 14 points and Panthers to 10 points. 
Since Mike Zimmer came on board - and hiring a top level staff to assist him - the Vikings have covered an amazing 75 percent of their games going 27-9 ATS! 
Minnesota is better off with the more accurate and downfield attacker Sam Bradford at quarterback than it was when Teddy Bridgewater was under center. Adrian Peterson's injury is overrated. He was averaging 1.6 yards per carry. The Vikings are fine with Jerrick McKinnon and Matt Asiata replacing Peterson. They did the job two years ago when Peterson missed the season and are better receiving targets out of the backfield than Peterson. 
The Giants have upgraded their defense, but it doesn't compare to Minnesota's. The Giants remain turnover and penalty-prone. Ben McAdoo can't compare to Zimmer as a head coach. The Giants just lost Shane Vereen for the season further weakening an already well below average ground attack. 

Let's not overthink this game. Tampa Bay is 3-15 SU, 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games. The Buccaneers don't know how to beat a good opponent such as the Broncos and this isn't a good fundamental matchup either for them.
Yet the oddsmaker has made a short line because the Broncos are playing their second consecutive road game and Tampa Bay is off a bad loss.
So what. Not only do the Broncos have a vastly superior defensive edge, but their coaching, experience and savvy are major advantages, too. 
Jameis Winston has great potential being in his second season. But he still forces things versus aggressive defenses. The Buccaneers have a minus 6 turnover ratio and are facing the top defense in the NFL. 
Denver has not allowed more than 20 points during any of its last eight games. The Broncos are giving up an average of 17.2 points per game during this span - and they've played better offenses than the Buccaneers in this time frame: Patriots, Steelers, Chargers, Panthers twice, Bengals twice and Colts.
The Broncos' pass defense is first-rate. The Broncos can be attacked on the ground, but the Buccaneers are missing their best running back, Doug Martin. 
Trevor Siemian is coming off his finest game as a pro. That was last week on the road against the Bengals, who have a much better defense than the Buccaneers.  

Carolina already has more regular season losses than it did during last year's regular season. That's because the Panthers have gone against two of the top defenses in the NFL - Broncos and Vikings. 
The Panthers actually could be better offensively than a year ago with Kelvin Benjamin in the lineup. Carolina is stepping way down in class defensively taking on the Falcons. The Panthers are at their best when they can bully and dominate the lines of scrimmage. They couldn't do that versus the Broncos and Vikings. They can against the finesse Falcons.
Carolina whipped the Falcons, 38-0, at home last season. But the Panthers won't forget losing 20-13 at Atlanta last season for their lone regular season defeat. This is a revenge spot for the Panthers and they catch the Falcons on a short week.
Even with the Falcons beating the defenseless Saints this past Monday, Atlanta still has covered just four of its last 15 games. Second-year head Falcons coach Dan Quinn hasn't been able to fix a leaky defense, nor upgrade a weak pass rush. 
Matt Ryan is having a big season so far and does play better in a dome setting, which this is. But the Falcons' two top wider receivers are both less than 100 percent. 

There is more than a touchdown class difference here factoring in Cincinnati's home field advantage. This is made more by the Dolphins traveling on a short week and their multiple injuries. 
Miami was life and death with the Browns at home this past Sunday. It took three missed field goals by the Browns, including one at the end of regulation, that allowed the Dolphins to escape with an overtime victory. 
Cincinnati is one of the best all around teams in the NFL. The Bengals protect their home-field well, too, only losing five times during their last 25 games at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals are off a disappointing home loss, though, to the Broncos. So there is little chance that they'll take the Dolphins for granted, or look past them. Even with that loss to Denver, Cincinnati still is 13-5-2 ATS in its past 20 games. 
The Bengals' defense has been solid, rather than outstanding. But look for the Bengals' defensive level to be raised a notch with the return from suspension of star linebacker and defensive leader Vontaze Burfict. 
The Dolphins are weak defensively in their back seven and could be without all three of their starting linebackers. Miami is vulnerable to A.J. Green and in big trouble offensively with their top runner, Arian Foster, out again and a cluster injury problem in the offensive line. 
Miami very well could be starting third-string center Kraig Urbik. Starting center Mike Pouncey is out at least another week with a hip injury and backup Anthony Steen suffered a high ankle sprain against the Browns. Also out for the Dolphins is starting tight end Jordan Cameron with a concussion. 
The combination of the Bengals' talent edge, home field advantage that is magnified by a short week and the many Miami injuries make the Bengals a solid play as they should win by double-digits. 

I believe the Bears will respond better with Brian Hoyer under center than Jay Cutler, who isn't a popular teammate. The Bears have more talent than their 0-2 record indicates.
The Bears did suffer multiple injuries on defense in their Monday night upset loss to the Eagles, but Dallas also is thin defensively due to injuries and multiple suspensions. 
The Cowboys' offense is limited by rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, who hasn't proven he can scare defenses when throwing downfield. Dallas is 2-14 the past 16 times Tony Romo hasn't played. 
The Bears should play extremely hard with their season already in deep peril at 0-2 and off an embarrassing Monday night home loss. 
The Cowboys have a terrible track record as a  home favorite failing to cover 12 of the past 14 times in that role going back to the middle of 2013. 

The Eagles have looked surprisingly good so far. But look at whom they have beaten - the winless Browns and winless Bears. 
Now the Eagles are stepping way up facing one of the top seven teams in the NFL. 
Ben Roethlisberger leads the NFL in touchdown passes. He can - and should - easily exploit a short-handed Eagles secondary that is minus cornerback Leodis McKelvin. The Eagles have looked better than they are defensively by facing Robert Griffin III and Jay Cutler/Brian Hoyer. Roethlisberger gets back his No. 2 wideout, Markus Wheaton, to go with Antonio Brown. The Steelers have two solid other wide receivers. 
Carson Wentz will be going against the best defense he's seen so far. He won't have tight end Zach Ertz either. The Eagles need to set up Wentz by churning out rushing yards. Wentz has never played from behind before. The chances are strong that happens here. The Eagles don't have the firepower to keep up with the Steelers' high-powered attack. 
The Steelers have been solid as chalk covering 10 the last 13 times when favored. 

The Dolphins are 0-2 and playing their first home game. They are in a kill spot. Except for a bad first half against New England, the Dolphins' defense has looked solid especially their front. 

The Browns are forced to go with third-string rookie quarterback Cody Kessler because of injuries to Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown. Kessler isn't nearly ready. He looked bad during preseason - overmatched - and he's not helped by the Browns' offensive line being much inferior to the Dolphins' defensive front.

The Browns also may be without their best defensive back, Joe Haden. 

Miami's offense should pick up having gotten more in tune with offensive guru Adam Gase's system. The Dolphins step way down in class having opened on the road against Seattle and New England. Those two teams can make any team look bad. 

The Browns also aren't used to playing in South Florida kind of heat. Look for their depth-shy team to wear down in the second half.

I want desperate teams, especially taking this many points in a division matchup. It's circle-the-wagons time for the 0-2 Redskins.
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog getting the money eight of the last 11 times. 
The Giants are 2-0 having eked out last-minute victories against the Cowboys and Saints by a combined four points. New York's defense is much improved from a year ago courtesy of a $200 million spending spree. But it's far from dominant and the Giants offense has yet to impress averaging 18 points a game. The Giants have a below average ground attack.
Kirk Cousins isn't Pro Bowl caliber. But he's also better than what he has shown so far this season. He has excellent receiving weapons - especially with a matchup of Jordan Reed against the Giants mediocre linebackers - and has received excellent pass protection. The Giants have a below average pass rush.
The Redskins have moved the ball they've just had trouble putting up touchdowns in the red zone. That should change with better play-calling, including not overusing fade routes that don't work. 
Josh Norman shores up the Redskins' secondary and the coaching staff finally has figured out to move Norman around. That means he's likely to be shadowing Odell Beckham Jr. Norman got inside Beckham's head last season. He's probably the cornerback that Beckham least likes to face. 

This line is too short. The Bears are much superior to the Eagles. The line doesn't reflect that because it's just Week 2 and the oddsmaker is swayed by how well Eagles rookie quarterback Carson Wentz looked opening week and the Bears losing and not covering versus the Texans.
Wentz, though, went against maybe the worst defense in the NFL - the Browns. He was home, too. Now he makes his road debut and it's on the Monday night national stage against a much-improved, well-coached Bears defense.
Wentz has an aging offensive line and below average wide receivers. He's not likely to have his security blanket either as tight end Zach Ertz has a serious rib injury and is not likely to play. I see Wentz struggling in this spot.
Jay Cutler has physical tools, but is not an elite quarterback. We know that. But Cutler will do better this year with a healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. I rate Jeffery as the eighth-best wide receiver in the NFL. His presence is huge for Cutler's confidence and the Bears offense. The Eagles secondary can't cover him. 
Cutler is at his best when he's not facing adversity. He won't have to deal with that in this matchup. 

Tennessee is a much improved team. The oddsmaker is a beat slow in realizing this based on the line. 
The Titans should have beaten the Vikings in Week 1. They led by 10 at halftime, outgained the Vikings and their defense didn't allow a touchdown. 
Unfortunately for the Titans they self-destructed. The Lions are noted chokers themselves. They are likely to be missing their star linebacker, DeAndre Levy, and are very weak defending tight ends having surrendered the most touchdowns last year to tight ends. Detroit yielded three tight end touchdowns to the Colts last week. The Titans have one of the best tight ends in Delaine Walker, who led all tight ends in receptions last year. 
Detroit has a huge lookahead game, too, facing the Packers in Wisconsin next Sunday. The Lions lack the maturity and overall talent to cover a margin in this spread range against an under-the-radar improved foe that has a pair of good runners, DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. A strong ground attack is pivotal for an underdog on the road. 

I see this as a clear kill spot for the Panthers and I want to lock in now before the number hits 14 - which it will and then probably still go higher.  
The Panthers hold edges in all areas against the 49ers. Not just minor edges either. The Panthers have all-pros at many positions. The 49ers have below average starters at many positions.  
The 49ers' problems are made more difficult by the scheduling dynamics. The Panthers have had nearly 1 1/2 weeks to sit around stewing about blowing a lead to the Broncos in the opening Thursday night game. Cam Newton is going to have a much easier time against the 49ers defense. 
The 49ers are fat and happy after whipping the Rams at home this past Monday night. Now they have to make a cross-country journey on a short week. Carolina is 19-7-1 in its last 27 home games. 

I'm not sure if the Colts would win this game if they were healthy - which they are not. Indy, in fact, is heavily banged-up. Out are the Colts' best defensive back, Vontae Davis, best defensive lineman, Henry Anderson, and one of their few decent offensive linemen left guard Jake Mewhort. 
The oddsmaker has devalued Detroit too much because of the retirement of Calvin Johnson.
Matthew Stafford was one of the hottest quarterbacks during the second half of the season last year with the second-highest passer rating during the last eight games and a 19-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that span. If not for an Aaron Rodgers' Hail Mary touchdown pass the Lions would have gone 7-1 in their last eight games. 
Johnson, of course, will be missed but the Lions still have three excellent wide receivers in Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and a still effective Anquan Boldin. The Colts have two new cornerbacks, over-the-hill veteran Antonio Cromartie and rookie T.J. Green. The Colts aren't going to be able to stop the Lions' passing game while the Colts may not be able to keep up with their beat up offensive line. 

The Chargers will be seeing blood here in a double revenge spot. This year the Chargers are healthy in the offensive line, improved defensively and have Ken Whisenhunt back as their offensive coordinator, a huge plus for Philip Rivers. 
Keenan Allen is back, too, for the Chargers. Expect much better from Melvin Gordon. The Chiefs aren't going to be able to control Rivers especially with their top front seven defender, Justin Houston, out. The Chiefs lose a huge portion of their pass rush with Houston out. 
Kansas City also is likely to be without its best running back, Jamaal Charles. His replacements are nothing special. 
Bottom line is this is too many points for the Chiefs to be laying in a division matchup. 

Minnesota is much superior to Tennessee in all facets except quarterback and that includes coaching. The Vikings have their sights set on reaching the Super Bowl. Their roster is very strong with lots of young defensive talent, Adrian Peterson to take the pressure off Shaun Hill, more wide receiving threats and an upgraded offensive line. 
After losing to a bad 49ers team last year on the road in their opener, the Vikings should be fully prepared this time around. They know they can't take a loss with the Packers and Panthers up next in Weeks 2 and 3. The Vikings rebounded from that defeat to the 49ers to cover their last seven road games. Peterson and an emerging defense are an excellent road formula. 
The Titans have lost 14 of their 16 home games during the last two seasons. Marcus Mariota is a promising second-year quarterback, but the Titans are in a huge rebuilding stage. They have a lot of youth, new starters and lack receiving weapons for Mariota. Their talent level can't compare to the Vikings. 

I'm skeptical of Brock Osweiler and a banged-up offensive line that is likely to be without star left tackle Duane Brown. I'm certainly not swallowing the hype on Osweiler. 
Both teams are slow-motion, grind-out types where points mean something. So taking more than a field goal is big. Last year, all but five of the Bears' games were decided by five points or less. 
The Bears are well coached and fundamentally sound. John Fox is 30-12 ATS on the road in his NFL coaching career and knows the Texans and Osweiler from when he coached the Broncos. The Bears covered six of their last seven away games last season. 
I'm expecting a strong defensive game plan from Fox and his ace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio with so much time to prepare. I'll take their experience, savvy and tricks against Osweiler and a vanilla Houston offense that had to deal with multiple offensive line injuries during preseason and isn't likely to be in sync here.
The Bears offense is ready to take off and become a lot more vertical with a healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. Jay Cutler is far more effective with a healthy Jeffery. 

I see the Panthers getting their revenge on the Broncos after losing to Denver in the Super Bowl. Carolina didn't lose the Super Bowl based on talent. The Panthers out-gained the Broncos by 121 yards and had 10 more first downs than Denver.
Certainly the Broncos are worthy of respect despite their less-than-inspiring quarterback situation. But Carolina is the more complete team extremely strong on both sides of the ball. Cam Newton just had his worst game of the season in the Super Bowl.
Newton, of course, is the real deal and gives the Panthers a monster quarterback edge. He has his top receiver weapon, Kelvin Benjamin, back now which wasn't the case in the Super Bowl. 
Denver's defense still is top-notch, but several important players did leave. Carolina lost its great cornerback, Josh Norman. But the Panthers rate far better than the Broncos with a top-three quarterback compared to a bottom-three quarterback. 
The right team is favored here. 

Five times Denver has been an underdog this season. Five times the Broncos have covered winning four of those games straight-up.
The Panthers are this big of a favorite, in part, because of how strong they looked in beating the Cardinals by 34 points in the second of the two championship games. 
Denver holding New England to just 18 points the AFC title game is just as impressive, though. The Broncos held the Steelers and Patriots to an average of 17 points in playoff competition while dealing Tom Brady his lowest quarterback rating of the season. It's not a fluke. The Broncos ranked No. 1 in total defense, pass defense and sacks. 
Carolina's defense isn't as dominant relying on an NFL-best 39 takeaways and plus 20 turnover ratio. The Panthers are down two starters in their secondary and likely to be missing star linebacker Thomas Davis, who suffered a broken arm against the Cardinals. Davis was playing as well as any Carolina defender. Denver lost its starting safeties against New England, but both vowed to play in the Super Bowl. 
Carolina only beat one opponent, Seattle, with a winning record when it was playing outside of Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers lost to Atlanta the last time they were away from home. The Panthers have been to one Super Bowl - back in 2003. They are an inexperienced in this setting and a shaky favorite having nearly blown late leads against the Colts, Packers, Giants and Seahawks in the playoffs when they won 31-24 after being up 31-0. 
The Broncos are 'dogs in this range because of the quarterback matchup. Cam Newton deserves to be the MVP. Peyton Manning is Alex Smith now. But Manning also looked the healthiest he's looked in months. Manning may be the wisest quarterback to ever play. Certainly he's in that discussion. He knows his defense is elite - capable of winning the Super Bowl.
There is no more opportunistic team than the Panthers. The key for the Broncos is not turning the ball over. Manning's regular season statistics show horrific numbers - a 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a last-place passer rating. However, the savvy Manning hasn't turned the ball over during the playoffs. He had a 103.8 quarterback rating in the first half against the Patriots. 
Manning has better wide receivers than Newton and is smart enough to stay away from shutdown cornerback Josh Norman. Instead, Manning will ride C.J. Anderson, who has been at least Jonathan Stewart's equal averaging 5.6 yards a carry during his last four games, and let his defense win the game. 
The Broncos just played in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. They are looking for atonement for a 43-8 loss to the Seahawks. The Panthers' defense isn't nearly as dominant as Seattle's was two years ago especially minus starting defensive backs Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere. They also could be down safety Roman Harper and pass rusher Jared Allen. 
Newton and the Panthers are thrilled to be on center stage. How will they handle it? Accuracy isn't Newton's strength. If he comes out tight the Broncos' elite defense surely will take advantage. Wade Phillips is one of the sharpest defensive coordinators of all time. He has two weeks to prepare and major cards to defend against Newton, including a pair of dominant edge pass rushers in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. 
The bottom line is taking more than a field goal with an elite defense, more experienced big-game team and having one of the sharpest quarterbacks of all-time with a better supporting cast around him. 

Carolina is a rising power that is ready to make the next leap having made the playoffs a third straight season. This is the Panthers' best team as evidenced by 16-1 record and eight players being named to either the first or second team Pro Bowl squad. 
Cam Newton is the likely MVP accounting for 45 touchdowns and more than 4,400 yards throwing and running. Newton is more trustworthy than Carson Palmer, who also has enjoyed a brilliant campaign but hasn't played well in Arizona's past two games. The Cardinals were buried at home by the Seahawks and were lucky rather than good versus the Packers this past Saturday night winning in overtime. Palmer had not won a playoff game in his 13 seasons until that win against Green Bay. He was fortunate not to have thrown more than two interceptions as Sam Shields dropped several poorly thrown passes by Palmer. 
Led by cornerback Josh Norman and linebacker Luke Kuechly - perhaps the two best at their respective positions - the Panthers led the NFL with 39 takeaways. The Cardinals' luck at avoiding injury stopped late in the season. They are minus safety Tyrann Mathieu and linebacker Alex Okafor. 
The Cardinals rarely can generate quarterback heat unless they blitz. Newton has the mobility and strength to avoid blitzes. Palmer has the bigger name wide receiving targets. Larry Fitzgerald has enjoyed a monster comeback season regaining his status as an elite receiver. Carolina, though, has the far superior tight end in Greg Olsen and the more experienced, proven running back in now healthy Jonathan Stewart, who easily outplayed Marshawn Lynch last week in returning from a foot injury. 
The Panthers have won 12 consecutive home games, including defeating the Cardinals in the playoffs last season, 27-16. Arizona was down to third-string Ryan Lindley in that matchup. The Cardinals are 7-1 on the road this season. Only one of those victories, however, was against an opponent that made the playoffs. 
Palmer isn't playing well and the Cardinals' ground attack has produced an average of just 2.1 yards per carry during their last two games. The Cardinals can be overwhelmed at the point of attack especially when their ground attack isn't clicking. 
Arizona also has a weak kicking game. Drew Butler is among the worst punters in the NFL and Chandler Catanzaro missed five extra points during the season. 

Both defenses are very good. The difference - and it's huge - is quarterback. Tom Brady is 38, but remains in the argument for best quarterback in the league. No quarterback threw for more touchdowns. 
Peyton Manning is just a year older than Brady, but he's washed-up done in by multiple neck surgeries and a foot injury that had kept him out of action since Nov. 15 until a lackluster start this past Sunday against the Steelers where he needed a Pittsburgh fumble to put up his lone touchdown. 
Manning is nothing but a glorified game-manager lacking a sterling ground game to fall back on, or set him up to keep pace with Brady. Manning has never been very good in the postseason even in his prime. He is 5-11 in his career versus Brady and 1-5 in the playoffs when the temperature has been under 40 degrees. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven postseason contests.
The Broncos were just 5-4 straight-up and ATS in Manning's nine starts. Manning finished 35th in passer ratings with a horrendous 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
The Patriots have a top-10 defense, including a top-10 run defense. Their key linebackers did get nicked up against the Chiefs this past Saturday, but Bill Belichick always has versatile defenders and is deep at the position if some of his starters can't go. 
Neither Manning, nor Brock Osweiler, are capable of putting up a lot of points. The Broncos rely on their defense. Ben Roethlisberger threw for nearly 340 yards against them with a sore shoulder and no Antonio Brown. Brady is capable of more with a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and healthy Julian Edelman. New England averaged 33 points per game and a 50 percent third down conversion rate with Edelman and only 23 points and a 30 percent third down conversion rate in the seven games Edelman missed with a foot injury.
Edelman is the key to the Patriots' up-tempo, quick-rhythm strike offense that doesn't need a sufficient ground game. The Patriots put up 27 points on the Chiefs defense, which was playing even better than Denver's. New England's offense should be even more well tuned this week with Edelman getting the rust off. The Patriots catch a break with Denver cornerback Chris Harris dealing with a shoulder injury. 
Given the liberal rules that favor offense in this era, Brady has a clear advantage on Denver's defense. Manning is in his dotage, nothing more than a glorified game manager. He won't be able to keep pace. 

Kansas City is the hottest team in the NFL winning 10 in a row. The Chiefs beat the Texans by a touchdown at Houston in Week 1 and nothing has changed. The Chiefs still are the superior team.
The Chiefs have played the stronger competition being in a much tougher division. They have a balanced offense with a superior quarterback in Alex Smith, who rates an edge on Brian Hoyer. The Chiefs' defense is holding foes to only 14.5 points during their last 12 games and should have Justin Houston back this week. Houston led the NFL in sacks last season.
The Texans are going to be without their best offensive lineman, left tackle Duane Brown. He's out for the season after suffering a torn tendon in his right quad this past Sunday.
The Chiefs have the best turnover ratio in the AFC at plus 14. Their secondary has a 12-to-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio in their last 11 games. 

The Texans are just thrilled to have reached the playoffs courtesy only of being in the worst division. 

Prop Bet (Taken from Westgate)
Over 5 1/2 Sacks
Look for these two teams to exceed 5 1/2 sacks. Kansas City ranked No. 4 in sacks with 47 while the Texans were No. 5 with 45. J.J. Watt led the NFL in sacks this season with 17 1/2. A year ago, Justin Houston led the NFL in sacks. Houston is expected back for the Chiefs this week after missing the last five games with a knee injury. He had 22 sacks last season. Alex Smith was sacked 45 times this season. Only two quarterbacks were sacked more times. Smith is highly mobile, but also highly conservative. He would much rather go down that take a shot on completing a pass. He is the total opposite of a gunslinger. Brian Hoyer isn't as mobile as Smith and won't have his best pass blocker as left tackle Duane Brown was injured last week and is out for the season. 

The Raiders have a history of playing their long-time hated division rival tough and I expect that to be the case again. Oakland has covered seven of the past nine times playing in Kansas City. The teams are 5-5 during their past 10 meetings. Only once in the last eight years have the Chiefs swept the Raiders.

Unlike previous seasons, the Raiders under their first-year coach Jack Del Rio have showed resolve while playing much better on the road. They have a winning away mark and have covered in four of their last five road matchups. Not once have the Raiders lost by more than five points on the road this season.

The Chiefs realize that Denver isn't going to lose to San Diego so they won't be winning the AFC South Division title. Both their game and the Broncos game kick off late so the Chiefs will be distracted doing some scoreboard watching. If the Broncos break out early against the Chargers - and they are double-digit favorites at some books - it wouldn't be surprising if Andy Reid starting resting starters in order to have them fresh for next week's playoffs. 

The Raiders really want to finish 8-8. All of their quotes this week point to that - and those quotes come across to me as sincere. I see the Raiders playing with a lot of energy and emotion. They are fortified with extra rest having played last Thursday. The Chiefs are banged up with their two best edge pass rushers, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, questionable. 

Oakland led Kansas City by six points in the fourth quarter when they met four weeks ago. But Derek Carr had a meltdown with three turnovers and the Chiefs won by a misleading 34-20 score. Carr has proven himself this season making giant steps going from game manager to dangerous playmaker. I like him far more than Alex Smith. 

The Chiefs are 9-0 in their last nine games, 7-2 ATS. They also are plus 19 in turnover ratio during this time. They are more about precision and takeaways than some dominant opponent. The Raiders can definitely hang with them if not pull the outright upset. 

Given Arizona's home field advantage, the line is short here. Arizona ranks with Carolina and New England as one of the three best teams in football. Those three teams are complete teams without a weakness. The Packers are at a "B" level closer to "C" than "A" with their struggling passing attack. The Packers have been outgained on the season. 
Mike McCarthy rarely has led Green Bay to victory in games the Packers weren't expected to win. The Packers are just 17-16 in their last 33 away games with a losing spread mark in those games. This is Green Bay's second West Coast game in a row. 
The Cardinals are 25-4 with Carson Palmer under center. Palmer is backed by three good wide receivers, a reliable offensive line and exciting rookie David Johnson, who already has set a Cardinals first-year mark for most touchdowns in a season with a dozen. The Packers will be without their top cornerback, Sam Shields. 
The Cardinals rank in the top three in points scored, total yards and passing. They are 20-11 (65 percent) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians. The Packers are 3-10-1 ATS as underdogs since 2012.
Green Bay's passing attack is struggling and its ground attack remains inconsistent. Eddie Lacy is having a terrible season. Arizona's defense ranks in the top seven in fewest points allowed, yards given up and rush defense. The Cardinals have held seven of their last eight opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground.
Arizona's pass defense style is tight man press coverage. The Packers' wide receivers have trouble getting separation. Randall Cobb is Green Bay's only receiving playmaker with Jordy Nelson sidelined. So the Packers are going to have problems with this type of defense preferring soft Cover-2 zone types. 
Aaron Rodgers isn't on same page with McCarthy continually being frustrated by the Packers' regression in the passing game. Rodgers also will be without his blindside protector as left tackle David Bakhtiari is out. 

Surprised to see Pittsburgh a double-digit favorite at Baltimore? Don't be. Oh, the Ravens will play hard. John Harbaugh will see to that. But the Ravens simply don't have nearly enough healthy talent to compete against elite level competition.
And the Steelers have become an elite team. They've won five of their last six scoring at least 30 points in every one of those games. The Ravens are down 18 players for the season, including eight starters. Their defense is a shell of what it once was and they have no playmakers left on offense. It's why the Ravens are 2-5 at home, their worst home record in their 26-year history in Baltimore, and why they are on pace to have the fewest takeaways in team history with just 11 right now. 
Neither Jimmy Clausen nor Ryan Mallet nor Matt Schaub has the skill set and weapons to keep pace with Ben Roethlisberger. Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Marcus Wheaton have combined to haul in 19 touchdown passes. DeAngelo Williams is going to be a 1,000-yard rusher replacing Le'Veon Bell. The battered Ravens might even be without cornerback Jimmy Smith, too. 

On paper it seems hard to go against the Chiefs. They've won eight in a row outscoring their foes by an average of 17 1/2 points during their win streak. 
But my handicap to the Browns is a combination of the Chiefs' talent being overrated - they are more opportunistic than great in my view - and the Browns playing hard to try to save Mike Pettine's job. 
Credit to Andy Reid and the Chiefs for coming back from the dead after a 1-5 start. But take notice of who the Chiefs have recently played: The Chargers, Bills, Raiders, Chargers again and Ravens. 
The Chiefs are using backups at running back - a key position for them - and have a lackluster passing attack. They are winning by forcing turnovers - getting at least one during their past 10 games. 
Sure Cleveland could turn the ball over with Johnny Manziel at quarterback. But he's also capable of making big plays. The Browns, unlike other bottom feeders, have some talent in left tackle Joe Thomas, tight end Gary Barnidge, strong safety Donte Whitner and wide receiver/returner Travis Benjamin. Those players, along with Manizel, all happen to publicly come out and call for Pettine to keep his job. 
That's a nice loyalty gesture. You would think now they would back up their word by playing hard. The Chiefs' pass rush could be down if Tamba Hali can't play due to a broken thumb. Already out is Justin Houston. Those are the Chiefs' two best edge rushers. 

Only once in seven games have the Cardinals lost on the road. They have the passing attack and pass defense to easily cover this number against the Eagles and win their eighth consecutive game.
Arizona is first in yards per game and No. 2 in scoring averaging 31.2 points. Carson Palmer has thrown for 31 touchdown passes, second-highest in the league. The Eagles have surrendered 29 touchdown throws, second-most in the league. In their last six games, the Eagles have permitted 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions as injuries make their already ineffective secondary worse. Palmer has a healthy receiving group and should have a clean pocket as the Eagles have only managed one sack or fewer in three of their past four games. 
Palmer can rely, too, on big-play David Johnson as his featured running back. The Eagles have yielded an average of 4.92 yards per carry to running backs during their last seven games. 
Arizona is 24-4 with Palmer under center. The Cardinals also are 19-11 (63%) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians, who has extra prep time this week with the Cardinals having played last Thursday. 
The Eagles need an "A" game to hang in against the Cardinals. They haven't produced one all season. The Eagles' ground attack has turned out to be overrated and is a mess right now. Arizona has held six of its last seven opponents to under 100 yards rushing. 
The Eagles haven't scored more than 23 points since Week 9. They struggle against tight man coverage, which the Cardinals are talented enough to play. The Cardinals rank fifth in the NFL in pass defense. Only six teams surrender fewer points per game than the Cardinals, which hold foes to 19.4 points a game. 

The Packers are playing very good defense and their offense is back in sync with Eddie Lacy running well - like he usually does late in the season - and Mike McCarthy calling plays again. 
Green Bay is better than Oakland on both sides of the ball. The Raiders are improved, but still several tiers below Green Bay. Oakland has played better on the road going 4-3 compared to 2-4 at home. 
Derek Carr is showing signs of hitting the wall. Latavius Murray already has. Aaron Rodgers isn't having an MVP season, but he still has a 28-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
Timing means a lot in the NFL. The Raiders are catching the Packers at a time when Green Bay has picked up its game. 
The difference between these two teams when playing in Oakland is far closer to a touchdown than a field goal. 

The Vikings are much improved under Mike Zimmer, but they are not an elite team and they are not built to cover margins of more than a field goal - especially against division foes - with a passing attack that ranks 31st. Only once has Teddy Bridgewater thrown for more than one touchdown pass in a game. 
While Zimmer has done an excellent job, so has the coaching staff of the Bears. Since Week 4, Chicago has gone 5-5. The Bears lost two of those games in overtime and the other three by a combined eight points with none of those defeats occurring by more than three points. One of those losses was 23-20 to the Vikings in Week 8 on a Minnesota field goal at the gun.
Adrian Peterson can expect to see a stacked line keying on him. Not only is Bridgewater a bottom tier quarterback - far more game manager than playmaker - but the Bears rank second in pass defense.
The Bears' offensive line has shown improvement and their key wide receivers - Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royals - should be healthy enough to play. Jay Cutler is playing under control thanks to new offensive coordinator Adam Gase. Cutler is an easy target to rip, but I like him far more than Bridgewater. The Bears also now have two good running backs with Jeremy Langford keeping Matt Forte fresh. 
The Vikings will be without linebacker Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith again and possibly nose guard Linval Joseph. Their defense isn't as good without those key defenders. 

Dallas can't win with a quarterback as bad as Matt Cassel under center against a quality opponent such as the Jets. The Cowboys are 1-6 in Cassel's seven starts. All of the losses except one have been by more than three points. 
Dallas can't win outside of its weak NFC East Division. They are 1-7 in non-division games. 
Dallas is bad at home. The Cowboys are 2-8, including losing five in a row, during their last 10 home contests. 
The Jets underachieved the last couple of seasons. A main reason for that was the poor coaching of Rex Ryan. That's changed under Todd Bowles, a much better coach than Ryan. The Jets have playoff talent. Bowles is getting the most out of it.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is having a career season. He's played as well as any quarterback during the last three weeks posting 100-plus ratings in each game during this span with a combined 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

This game has been moved to Sunday night. The Texans are not prime time ready. New England certainly is. It's rare to get the Patriots off a loss. It's near impossible to ever get Bill Belichick and Tom Brady off consecutive losses. The last time that happened was 2002! 
Belichick and Brady are coming off rare bad performances for them. I want them going for me in this spot. Before getting upset by the Eagles this past Sunday, the Patriots were 8-0 straight-up and ATS when coming off a loss, with an average winning margin of 14 points.
The Texans haven't been able to put together a consistent ground attack since losing Arian Foster. New England, however, is far more banged-up. That's a big reason why this line is so low.
Still, no coach is better than Belichick at finding role players to fill in the niches and no quarterback is better than Brady in putting them in position to succeed. I fully expect Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell, James White and Scott Chandler to play well replacing Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis and Rob Gronkowski. 
The Texans weren't able to take advantage of Buffalo missing its starting right guard and right tackle last Sunday. The Texans only had one sacks against the Bills, none by J.J. Watt.
This is a rare marquee matchup for the Texans. They have a number of former Patriot coaches and players. But their biggest game of the season actually comes next week when they play the Colts in a matchup that will hold huge implications for the AFC South Division title. 
The Patriots are used to pressure games and performing under the national spotlight. Not so with the Texans. 

The Raiders have actually played better on the road where there is less of a winning expectation. Apparently this, perhaps subconsciously, has removed some of the pressure from their young players.
Oakland has won three away games. The last time the Raiders did that was in 2011. 
Derek Carr is a much better quarterback than Brock Osweiler, who is more game manager than downfield threat. Only two of Carr's nine interceptions have come on the road. Carr also has only been sacked five times on the road compared to 11 at home. He has 26 touchdowns throws with a chance to set the Raiders' franchise record for TD passes in a season. 
Denver is extremely banged-up. Both of the Broncos' running back, C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, are nursing injuries. Denver's offensive line is thinned by injuries and its defense could be missing four starters. 
The Broncos know how to win, but they are not built to cover margins like this. Only three of their 10 victories have come by more than seven points. Denver is averaging just 17.7 points during regulation in its last four games. 
The Raiders held the Broncos to without a touchdown on offense in a 16-10 loss in Week 5. 

The Bengals took advantage of a rusty Ben Roethlisberger when they beat the Steelers, 16-10, in Week 8. Roethlisberger threw three interceptions in his first game back after missing four games because of a knee injury.
Look for Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's offense to play far better this time around. The Steelers actually outgained Cincinnati in that game. Roethlisberger is averaging 383.2 yards passing in his last four games throwing for 10 touchdowns during this span. Antonio Brown is a monster when Big Ben is behind center. He's caught seven touchdown passes in the eight games Roethlisberger has played. 
Making matters worse for the Bengals is their secondary has injuries. Cornerback Adam Jones is not expected to play due to a foot injury. Cincinnati also may be missing cornerback Leon Hall with a back injury and free safety George Iloka with a groin injury. Another cornerback, Dre Kirkpatric, is limited by a knee injury. Jones, Hall and Kirkpatrick are all veteran cornerbacks. If they're limited - or absent - the Bengals are forced to rely on a pair of rookies one being undrafted Troy Hill against one of the top passing offenses in the league. 
The Steelers have only given up three rushing touchdowns all season. I like Roethlisberger far better than Andy Dalton if this one turns into a shootout, which it very well could do. 
The Bengals have been fortunate up to this point with injuries. That luck, though, is running out. Cincinnati has only outgained five of its last 10 opponents. The Bengals are ripe for a fall with a three game division lead on the more desperate 7-5 Steelers. Pittsburgh has a strong history playing at Cincinnati and playing in December. 
The Steelers have won and covered in four of their last five visits to Cincinnati. Pittsburgh also is 8-0 straight-up and ATS in its last eight December games. 

Chicago is fired-up and angry after blowing a home game to San Francisco this past Sunday. I like the Bears' coaching edge and situation advantage against Washington, which is traveling on a short week following a home loss on Monday night to division rival Dallas. 
The Redskins have been terrible on the road losing the past nine times while going 2-7 ATS. They are 0-5 away this season outscored by 76 points in these matchups for an average losing margin of 15.2 points. 
During the Jay Gruden era, the Redskins are 1-12 on the road, 4-9 ATS. They have lost by 10 or more points in eight of those 12 road contests. 
Kirk Cousins has a 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road with a completion rate of less than 62 percent. The Bears rank No. 2 in pass defense.
Not only do I like the Bears' passing game more with Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery, but also their ground attack with a two-headed monster of Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford. 
The Redskins are a ground-and-pound team, but they don't run well nor stop the run. The Redskins rank 26th in run defense and 25th in rushing. 

It's difficult enough being the road team for a Thursday night game. It's especially difficult for the Vikings traveling to the desert following a mentally and physically draining 38-7 home loss to Seattle this past Sunday.
Arizona is 17-4 under Bruce Arians when playing at the University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals have won 14 of their last 16 home games when Carson Palmer has been under center. Palmer has a 38-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio in these games. 
Sparked by Palmer, an MVP candidate, the Cardinals rank first in the NFL in yards and points per game. They draw a battered Vikings defense missing three of their key defenders in injured safety Harrison Smith, nose tackle Linval Joseph and linebacker Anthony Barr. That's too much for the Vikings to overcome especially on a short week with long travel involved when their is limited time to make adjustments. 
The Vikings lack the necessary strong passing game to keep up with Palmer and high-powered Cardinals offense. 

The Colts couldn't win a shootout last year against Ben Roethlisberger losing 51-34 at Pittsburgh. That was with Andrew Luck. I don't see the Colts keeping up with Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's high-scoring offense this year with Matt Hasselbeck and a having a worse team than from a year ago.
Hasselbeck is 4-0 replacing Luck. Kudos to him. But there's a due factor - and the clock is ticking. I see it stopping in this matchup. The Colts dominate their weak AFC South Division brothers. Out of division, though, they have problems. 
Roethlisberger has led the Steelers to three consecutive games of scoring at least 30 points. The Colts don't have the quarterback to keep up, nor the defense to slow down the Steelers especially minus underrated injured linebacker Jerrell Freeman. 
Pittsburgh ranks fourth in total yards despite not having Roethlisberger for four games and is seventh in run defense. They have too much balance for the Colts, who rank 22nd in yards and 26th in yards given up. 

Denver is in a prime letdown spot traveling to sunny San Diego after upsetting New England at home in a prime time Sunday night victory at home in frigid conditions. The Broncos won in overtime exerting a lot of energy in coming back from two touchdowns down in the final quarter.
The Broncos could be down three starters on defense on top of already being thin in the offensive line. The Broncos are led by Brock Osweiler, who has done a nice job since replacing Peyton Manning. But the Broncos are not a downfield, attacking type team. They are run-oriented and short-passing with Osweiler, not built to cover mid-size spreads against division foes on the road especially in a flat spot like this.
This has been a lost year for the Chargers. But they did get a large part of their confidence back by winning on the road last week. Philip Rivers is having another brilliant campaign. He makes the Chargers live to beat any foe. The Chargers have come close against the Bengals losing by five points, hung tough against the Packers having a chance to force overtime at the Green Bay three-yard line before running out of downs late in the game and losing at the gun at Baltimore. 
The Chargers are getting healthier, especially at linebacker. Rivers' savvy covers up their offensive line injuries and Melvin Gordon ran better last week. 

It's not that I'm in love with Miami. This handicap is far more of a fade on Baltimore. The Ravens are decimated without their quarterback, top running back, top wide receiver, top pass rusher and perhaps three starting offensive linemen. All together, the Ravens have lost a staggering 17 players for the season.
Yet the Ravens pulled off an improbable road win on Monday night against division rival Cleveland. It's one of the few times the Ravens get to celebrate this season. It also puts them in a terrible situation to go back on the road on a short week to face a frustrated Dolphins team that is much healthier than the Ravens. 
The Dolphins have been disappointing much of the season. But they are 3-4 under interim coach Dan Campbell compared to 1-3 under disposed coach Joe Philbin. Campbell isn't going to outsmart many opposing head coaches, but the Dolphins have been more physical under him and usually have been at their best in a bullying role.
That's the spot here as the Ravens are the Ravens in name only. Injuries have reduced their talent level to bottom of the barrel. Matt Schaub has a 12-to-18 touchdown-to-interception ratio since 2013. He has become the king of Pick-Sixes throwing five of them during this span. 
A switch in offensive coordinators should help the Dolphins revitalize their ground attack, which would make Ryan Tannehill more effective. 

The Cardinals have revenge for a frustrating 24-22 loss to the Rams in Week 4 when they had to settle for four field goals in four touchdown-less red zone trips. 
Arizona still is playing at an elite level, while the wheels have come off for the Rams. They've lost four in a row and there's talk Jeff Fisher could be out as coach. 
Carson Palmer ranks among the top three in passer rating, touchdown throws and yards passing. The Cardinals have won in 22 of his last 26 starts. He has a full complement of receivers now, too, with Michael Floyd and John Brown healthy.
The Rams have the worst passing attack. Neither Nick Foles nor Case Keenum, who is likely to be back under center, is NFL-starter quality. The Rams try to compensate with running back Todd Gurley. But with a decimated offensive line and defenses keying on him, Gurley has been held to an average of less than 44 yards rushing per game and 2.8 yards per carry during his last three games. Arizona has a top five run defense.
St. Louis' defense is getting worn down from having to carry such a weak offense. A strong pass rush has been their calling card. However, the Rams have managed just four sacks in their last four games. 
The Rams have one of the weaker home fields in the league due to rumors of their moving and their poor record. 
This game sets up well for the Cardinals and the line figures to keep growing. So my advice is to lock in now. 

The Bengals are anxious to return to their winning ways after losing the past two weeks in nationally televised losses to the Texans and Cardinals. Cincinnati is very tough at home where they have covered 17 of their past 22 games.
Cincinnati doesn't have a major weakness and is one of the healthiest teams in the league. The Rams' strength is their defense and running back Todd Gurley. 
The Bengals have a balanced attack and a defense that allows 18.6 points per game, fourth-lowest in the NFL. I see the Bengals trumping the Rams on both sides of the ball. 
St. Louis' offensive line is decimated down three starters. Left tackle Greg Robinson has looked terrible. The Rams quarterback situation of Case Keenum and Nick Foles could be the weakest in the league and can't take advantage of the Bengals loading the box to stop Gurley. 
The Rams have scored fewer than 20 points in 60 percent of their games. They are averaging 14.6 points in their last three games. Their passing attack ranks last.
This also has been a very distracting week for the St. Louis players with its teammate, Steadman Bailey, getting shot. So focus could be an issue, too. The Rams can't hang close unless they produce an "A" effort. I don't see that happening based on matchups and situation. 

The Bills are a gritty team whose defense has improved as the season winds down with the players becoming more familiar with Rex Ryan's schemes. 
Buffalo just held the Patriots, with their second-rated offense, to a season-low 20 points. 
Kansas City is getting a lot of love, though, in this matchup because it has won and covered four in a row. Kudos to Andy Reid for keeping the Chiefs together after a tough early-season, but his team isn't that good.
The Chiefs hit a lucky patch during their win streak. First they beat the Steelers when Pittsburgh had to use Landry Jones at quarterback. Jones is one of the worst backups in the league. The Chiefs then caught the Lions in London when Detroit was still in disarray and had just made a switch in offensive coordinators. 
Kansas City then drew the Broncos when Peyton Manning was playing hurt and at his most ineffective. After that win was a victory last week against a messed-up, injury-racked Chargers squad that was at their lowest ebb. 
The Chiefs rank well below average in passing, which is no surprise with Alex Smith at center. Smith can win given weapons, but he's not going to pile on points. Because of their passing limitations, the Chiefs heavily rely on their tailback. That tailback could be third-stringer Spencer Ware. So Smith doesn't have outstanding weapons.

So why back a San Diego team that is 2-8 and has lost six in a row as a monster 50-Dime play? A combination of Philip Rivers, a due factor and the Jaguars being overpriced.
Jacksonville doesn't beat teams. Opponents lose to them. There's a difference. San Diego is approaching this matchup as a challenge and a test of character. Non-division foes usually treat the Jaguars with overconfidence.
Yes, the Jaguars are better than last season. Their defense is more competitive and Blake Bortles has improved in his second season. But the Jaguars still are not very good. They've gone six consecutive games with at least one turnover. Bortles is always live for a pick-six and has been sacked more than any other quarterback during the last two seasons. The Chargers' pass rush has gotten better recording 18 sacks during their last seven games. 
Rivers makes the Chargers competitive. He's having another super season throwing for the second-most yards in the league while leading the NFL in completions and throwing for 19 touchdowns. 
San Diego was blown out by the Chiefs in their last game. People remember that. Maybe they should also recall the Chargers losing to the then unbeaten Bengals by five points, nearly forcing overtime against the Packers when they were stopped at the 3-yard line on fourth down and goal at the end of the game and falling to Baltimore on the last play of the game. All of those games were on the road.
When it comes to coaching, I like Mike McCoy much better than Gus Bradley. McCoy is innovative and tough on non-division foes not familiar with him. Bradley is too conservative, one of those many coaches who plays not to lose rather than win. 

Sometimes the best handicap formula is just the most obvious. Carolina is better than Dallas and it's not even close. 
I understand timing is very important in NFL games. It's not always who you play, but when you play. 
The Cowboys are 3-0 when Tony Romo has been under center. He'll be playing Thursday and shouldn't have any rust after returning last Sunday after missing seven games. The Cowboys are home and in a desperate spot being 3-7. 
I would be surprised if Dallas didn't put forth a full, focused effort and played a good game. I'm expecting that. But it's not going to be enough to beat Carolina. 
It's not just happenstance that the Panthers are 14-1 in their last 15 games. They have a tremendous defense, much superior's to Dallas. Carolina ranks in the top eight in all of the most important defensive categories, including rating in the top five in allowing the fewest yards and points per game. Linebacker Luke Kuechly and cornerback Josh Norman are two of the best defensive players in the league. 
The Panthers have outgained their opponent in 15 of their last 17 games. It's impossible to predict turnovers, but the Panthers are No. 1 in takeaways/giveaways at plus 13. Dallas is second-to-last with a minus nine turnover ratio.
Thanks to Cam Newton's MVP-candidate type season, the Panthers are the third highest scoring team in the NFL at 29.9 points per game. Newton has accounted for 38 touchdowns in his last 15 games. Jonathan Stewart is a much better running back than recycled Darren McFadden. The Panthers received some good news this week in that left guard Andrew Norwell will be back after missing the last three games. He could be the Panthers' first or second-best offensive lineman. 

Aside from the Patriots, the Bengals shouldn't be more than a field goal underdog to any team. The Bengals will be especially fired up to redeem themselves after being upset on Monday night at home by Houston.
This play isn't against the Cardinals. I like Bruce Arians a lot. The Cardinals are normally a play-on team - just not in this matchup at this price.
Arizona isn't helped being banged up in the offensive line and at wide receiver with Michael Floyd and John Brown each questionable. 
The Cardinals have been fortunate to play an easy schedule. Five of their victories have been against foes whose offenses are near the bottom of the statistical rankings. 
The Bengals are solid up and down. They don't have a serious weakness and own a 7-1-1 ATS mark. Andy Dalton is having his finest season backed by weapons at wide receiver, running back and tight end with Tyler Eifert, who has nine touchdowns in the red zone this season. 

No, the 49ers can't stay within two touchdowns of Seattle. Not with Blaine Gabbert and not down to street free agents at running back. 
Seattle has been dominant at CenturyLink Field and dominant versus San Francisco.
The Seahawks are 15-3 in their last 18 home games with 11 of those victories coming by double-digits. They are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times playing the 49ers. The 49ers haven't been able to break the 20-point barrier during any of their last nine meetings against the Seahawks, averaging a puny 10.8 points per game during this span. 
San Francisco has been held to 13 points combined during its last three games against Seattle. The Seahawks beat the 49ers, 20-3, in Week 7 outgaining the 49ers, 388-142. That was the 49ers' lowest yardage total in nine years. 
Gabbert is a downgrade on Colin Kaepernick, who was the quarterback in the first meeting. Gabbert lacks pocket presence and doesn't have anywhere near the mobility Kaepernick possess.
Seattle's offensive line finally has shown signs of coming around. The Seahawks are enduring a frustrating season. Look for them to take out their frustrations at home on a hapless foe.
The 49ers have gone from one of the better coaching staffs to one of the most overmatched. There is no love lost between these two division rivals. Pete Carroll won't be shy about sticking it to the 49ers. 

Not only are the Texans on a short week in an emotionally distracting week following their Monday road upset win against the Bengals, but backup T.J. Yates is their quarterback for this game.
Brian Hoyer is near the bottom among starting quarterbacks. But Yates is far worse. He's a game-managing, dump-off passer who won't have his former security blanket, Arian Foster.
This is a circle-the-wagon game for the Jets, who have lost three of their last four. They have the better skill position players and the superior defense.
The Jets have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played a week ago from Thursday. That's allowed Nick Mangold and a beaten-up secondary to recover along with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who formerly played for the Texans. 

The Seahawks haven't lost a game coming off a bye since 2012. I don't see them losing at home either in this matchup. Seattle is 4-4. Arizona is 6-2. Obviously this is a must-win spot for Seattle. 
The Cardinals haven't faced a defense of this caliber on the road all season. Their offense is good, but not as powerful as the statistics show. Arizona has won five of its six games against defenses that are ranked among the bottom nine - Saints, Browns, 49ers, Lions and Ravens. 
The one really good defense the Cardinals went against was the Rams - and that was at home. The Cardinals still lost that game. Seattle's defense is picking up steam. Look for the "Legion of Boom" to be in full force. 
The bye week came at a good time for Seattle, which was in need of regrouping. Their offensive line should perform better with left tackle Russell Okung expected back. Then there is the Seahawks' dominant home field advantage. During the last four years, the Seahawks are 28-3 at CenturyLink Field, 20-10-1 ATS. 

The good news for the Cowboys is they finally get back Tony Romo next week.
The bad news is the Cowboys are 0-6 since Romo broke his collarbone. If they don't beat the Buccaneers then Romo's presence isn't going to mean anything.
This is a must game for Dallas - and I see the Cowboys getting a victory against this lowly opponent that doesn't know how to close out foes.
Tampa Bay also has been an abject failure at home going 1-12 in its last 13 games at Raymond James Stadium, 3-10 ATS. In games decided by six or fewer points under Lovie Smith, the Bucs are 2-9. 
Matt Cassel has gotten better each week he's been Dallas' starting quarterback. The Cowboys have come close in their last two games falling by one point to the Seahawks and in overtime to the Eagles. 
The Cowboys are short 'dogs. They are 9-3 ATS the past 12 times when getting points. The Buccaneers are a step down in class for the Cowboys. 

I can't see Ben Roethlisberger playing in this game. That puts the Steelers in peril for this heated, division rivalry game because the Browns, while not talented, can be ornery. They have an excellent track record as underdogs, too, 10-5-1 ATS since Mike Pettine became coach in 2014. 
Subtract Roethlisberger and Le'Veon Bell. Sub in Landry Jones, one of the weakest backup quarterbacks in the league, and the Steelers' offense loses their potency. The oddsmaker realizes this. That's why this is one of the lowest totals on the board. So taking more than four points is huge. 
The Browns have had 10 days between games having played in last Thursday's game. That's given them enough time to get Josh McCown back along with wide receivers Brian Hartline and Andrew Hawkins and several defensive backs from their battered secondary. 
Cleveland is not going to the playoffs. So the Browns have few chances to get up for games. This is one of those times against a hated division foe that has kicked them when they were down. With their bye coming up next week, I expect the Browns to hold nothing back. McCown has played surprising well for them. He holds a quarterback edge on Jones.  I'm fine if McCown doesn't play and Johnny Manziel does since he's practiced with the first-unit all week and has shown improvement. He brings a running dimension that McCown doesn't.

San Diego isn't nearly good enough to overcome its multitude of injuries to beat many teams by more than a field goal, including the Bears. 
The Chargers have lost six of their last seven game. They are on a four-game losing streak. The Chargers' two victories have come by a total of eight points. Those wins were against the Lions and Browns, whose combined record is 3-14. 
Chicago has been better than perceived thanks to excellent coaching from head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase, both of whom came from the Broncos and are very familiar with San Diego. The Chargers, though, aren't so familiar with the Bears, who they last played in 2011. 
Each of the Bears' last four games have been decided by three or fewer points. Jay Cutler has been much better this season. He's been aided greatly by the well-respected Gase. Having Alshon Jeffery back makes a huge difference for Chicago's offense. The Chargers have surrendered 24 or more points in every one of their games. 
San Diego has zero rushing touchdowns in its last seven games. Chicago hasn't yielded a rushing touchdown in its last five games. Philip Rivers is having another super season, but the Chargers are not balanced and minus their best wide receiver, Keenan Allen. 
Chicago won't have Matt Forte. But Jeremy Langford is an underrated backup and Chicago is far healthier than the Chargers.
San Diego will be without its left tackle and center. The Chargers also could be down a third starting offensive lineman as left guard Orlando Franklin is doubtful. Tight end Ladarius Green isn't likely to play either. 
The Chargers are beat up, too, defensively. Linebackers Manti Te'o and Denzel Perryman are out. Three other key defenders - lineman Corey Liuget, cornerback Jason Verrett and safety Eric Weddle - are questionable. 
Unlike the Bears, the Chargers have not had their bye yet. That comes next week. They are battered and worn down. It's too much to ask them to cover a point spread of more than a field goal. 

Dallas beat the Eagles, 20-10, back in Week 2. It was a costly victory as the Cowboys lost Tony Romo. They haven't won since going 0-5, 1-4 ATS. Dallas is averaging less than 15 points a game during its last four games. 
Matt Cassel has been as bad as Brandon Weeden and that's as bad as it gets. The Cowboys have scored two touchdowns in their last three games. Dez Bryant is back, but his value is shot because he doesn't have a quarterback who can get him the ball. He caught just two passes for 14 yards last week. 
The Eagles are rested coming off their bye week. They are healthy again on defense. Philadelphia is very underrated defensively ranking in the top three against the run and top seven versus the pass, according to Football Outsiders. The Eagles have picked off 11 passes while permitting 10 touchdown throws. They have 19 takeaways in seven games. The Cowboys, by contrast, have one takeaway during their last five games. 
Dallas has given up an average of 4.74 yards per rush during its last five games.
Chip Kelly is sharp enough to tweak his system to feature more running plays for DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews to take advantage of Dallas' weaknesses. The Eagles' ground attack has picked up averaging 5.1 yards per rush during the last three games. 

Bad spot for Oakland. Near desperation time for Pittsburgh.
The Raiders are coming off a hugely satisfying home win against the Jets. Now, though, they have to fly East for an early start time against the Steelers. The Raiders are 1-15 SU, 6-10 ATS in their last 16 Eastern Time Zone games.
Look for Pittsburgh's passing attack to be much better now that Ben Roethlisberger had a game to get the rust off. Losing Le'Veon Bell hurts, but the Steelers are fortunate enough to have one of the better backup running backs, DeAngelo Williams.
Oakland ranks second-to-last in pass defense. The Raiders have surrendered at least two touchdown passes in every game but one.
Pittsburgh's defense has been much better than perceived ranking fifth in fewest points allowed at 18.4 per game. That number shrinks to 16 points in the Steelers' last six games. Pittsburgh has held four teams to their lowest point total of the season, including the Patriots, Bengals and Cardinals. 
At 4-4 the Steelers are in must-win mode. 

Look for the Titans to come out fired-up playing harder and with more intelligence under new coach Mike Mularkey. 

Marcus Mariota gives the offense a huge lift and the running game should work better against the Saints, who allow the second-most yards per game in the NFL and third-most points per game at 29.2. 

Tennessee has an underrated secondary and it's going to be better this week with Perrish Cox, the team's best cornerback, set to return from an injured hamstring. 

The Saints achieved three of their four victories by a combined 15 points and that includes a six-point win in overtime. Their other victory was by 10 points against the Falcons, who were minus three in turonver ratio.

The Saints simply aren't good enough to be laying more than a touchdown like this against a team that should show much better than what is perceived due to Mariota being back and a coaching change. 

I can't see anything but a lopsided Bengals victory here. 
Cincinnati has way too much offense for Cleveland. The Bengals won't come in overconfident either after suffering a stunning home loss to Cleveland last year on a Thursday night. 
The Browns are going to be missing three members of their secondary, steady wide receiver Brian Hartline and starting quarterback Josh McCown.
I have no faith that Johnny Manziel can keep Cleveland in the game against this caliber of defense and on a short week. 

Both teams are 6-0 and off byes. The Packers' 6-0 is real. The Broncos' 6-0 is bogus. 
Denver has had to battle in every one of its games. The Broncos ranked eighth in point differential despite not having lost.
The Broncos' offense has produced only nine touchdowns. The problems are a below average offensive line, mediocre running backs and a washed-up Peyton Manning. 
Manning should have retired after last season. He ranks 31st in the passer ratings with a 72.5 ranking. He's tied for the most interceptions thrown with 10. He's as smart and savvy as ever, but he can no longer drive the ball and his accuracy is down. To be brutally honest, he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league now. Sad, but true. 
The Packers have a monster quarterback edge with Aaron Rodgers. Eddie Lacy and Davonte Adams should be at full strength, too. 
Denver's home field and outstanding defense are definite pluses. However, they can't outweigh Green Bay's considerable offensive edge. Today's game is about offense not defense. The rules ensure that. Manning can't keep up with Rodgers. 

The Saints have the worst defense in the league and are on the road. Not a good combination.
Chuck Pagano isn't the sharpest coach around that's for sure. But the Colts do play hard for him. They have a great track when playing bad teams - 19-4 ATS versus foes under .500. Indianapolis also is 17-3 ATS following a loss.
Andrew Luck showed enough against the Patriots that he's past his shoulder injuries.  to be trusted to put up a lot of points, especially against this opponent. Luck is 21-7 at home compared to 16-14 when on the road. 
Luck should light up a Saints secondary that has permitted 11 touchdown passes and has only two interceptions and is allowing 8.6 yards per pass.  

Miami got a boost with a new head coach and defensive coordinator last week steamrolling Tennessee. But the Dolphins are as mediocre as Houston and the Texans will be far better prepared now that they have film on what the Dolphins did under interim coach Dan Campbell and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. 
The Dolphins are in a flat spot. They were super pumped for their first game under new leadership last week. Up next following this game for Miami is a Thursday matchup versus New England. 
The Dolphins have failed to cover in their last five home games, losing four of them straight-up.
Houston's DeAndre Hopkins is making a case of being the best wide receiver in football. The Dolphins are thin in the secondary. Cornerback Brice McCain is unlikely to play and Brent Grimes, Miami's other corner, is less than 100 percent because of a knee injury. 
The Texans are getting better now that Arian Foster is close to 100 percent and Brian Hoyer is back entrenched at quarterback. Those two are massive upgrades on Ryan Mallet and Alfred Blue. 

This is my Favorite's Play of the Month. I'm not surprised the line has gone up since I released the play as the Rams clearly are the right side.

The Browns have gone hard three straight weeks losing 30-27 to the Chargers, beating Baltimore in overtime and losing in overtime last week to the Broncos. 

Cleveland doesn't have an abundance of talent. The Browns' skill position players are among the weakest in the league. It takes a supreme effort for the Browns to hang in against most opponents. 
I believe the Browns are out of gas for this road matchup. St. Louis is coming off its bye week. The Rams hold matchup, situation and field edges that should result in more than a touchdown victory. 
The Browns are a grass team. This is their first dome game. Cleveland ranks 30th in total defense, last in run defense. The Rams have a potential superstar running back Todd Gurley. He's healthy now and has rushed for 305 yards in his last two games. 
I'm not a fan of Rams quarterback Nick Foles, but he's still better than Browns journeyman Josh McCown and he has speed at the flanks. The Browns were missing two key members of their secondary last week, cornerback Joe Haden and free safety Tashaun Gipson. Neither practiced on Wednesday. I'm releasing this play Wednesday night as I see the line going higher.
Foles should be able to pick his spots, too, off play-action since the Browns will be keying on Gurley. 
St. Louis has 19 sacks in five games. The Rams have the best pass rushing defensive front in football. McCown plays scared when under pressure. I envision multiple turnovers from him against this defense. 
The Rams are stepping down in class after facing Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer and Aaron Rodgers. They should dominate McCown and his lack of weapons. 
Coaching-wise this is a mismatch, too, between Jeff Fisher and Mike Pettine. 

I'm fully aware of New England's strong history against the Colts during the past three years - a 4-0 record with four blowouts. 
But I'm locking in at this price rang in the full belief Andrew Luck is going to play. And if Luck plays this price range is way too high given the Colts are home where they are 21-7-1 ATS (75%) during their last 29 games at Lucas Oil Stadium. 
Luck is going to provide a huge spark and emotional lift after missing the last two games. 
New England is the best team in the AFC right now. But the Patriots haven't played a difficult schedule drawing the Steelers at home, Bills on the road, Jaguars at home and Cowboys minus Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. 
The Patriots have faced just one good quarterback. Their rebuilt secondary hasn't faced a strong test in three games. The Colts have a lot of talent at the skill positions. Frank Gore is averaging 4.47 yards and has had 10 days to get his legs fresh as the Colts last played on Thursday giving them extra rest and prep time. New England ranks among the bottom 12 in rush defense. 
Tom Brady is going to be without his blindside protector as left tackle Nate Solder suffered a season-ending biceps injury. 

The Lions are at low ebb right now. But they finally are in a good spot. 
The Bears are one of the least talented teams in the NFL. They've been coached up by John Fox, but are off a surprising road upset victory coming from 14 points down to beat Kansas City and have multiple injuries. This also is the Bears' first dome game. The only other time they were on turf they were shut out by Seattle.
Jimmy Clausen was the Bears' quarterback in that game. Jay Cutler is an upgrade. However, Cutler is turnover-prone and could be missing his three top receivers and his left tackle. Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal missed last week and may not play Sunday. Martellus Bennett, a very good tight end, may be out, too. 
The Bears are hurting defensively, too. Their most experienced defensive back, Antrel Rolle, is out as is one of their better run defenders, linebacker Shea McClellin. 
The Lions are the lone winless team in the NFL. They desperately want to erase that stigma. The LIons have looked bad, but they've had a hard schedule. In their last three games they've played the Broncos, Seahawks on the road and Cardinals. The Bears are playing their second road game in a row and third in four weeks. They have a bye next week. It's a flat spot for them. 
Detroit has the offense to get its frustrations out in a big way. I see Matthew Stafford having his best game of the year. The Bears have intercepted just two passes while giving up 11 touchdowns through the air and 65 percent completions. 
Calvin Johnson manhandled cornerback Kyle Fuller last year in two games catching a combined 17 passes for 249 yards. 

Much credit to the Steelers for upsetting San Diego this past Monday. But I don't see the Steelers minus Ben Roethlisberger pulling off a second consecutive upset. 
Arizona continues to be underrated and is a good fit against this opponent. The Cardinals have a high-powered passing attack, underrated ground game and an aggressive defense. 
The Steelers have allowed more than 70 percent completions, fourth-worst in the NFL. They are vulnerable to Carson Palmer and once again will be minus their top defensive talent, linebacker Ryan Shazier. 
The Cardinals' offense, good to being win, is upgraded even more with the return to health of Andre Ellington and Michael Floyd. 
The spot is tough on Pittsburgh off a last-play, emotional road win against the Chargers and playing on a short week. 
The Cardinals aren't going to lack motivation. Not with Bruce Arians who had a parting of the ways with the Steelers four years ago. 
Michael Vick is way past his prime. The Cardinals not only lead the NFL in interceptions, but their secondary also has posted the fourth-lowest quarterback rating. Vick is going to have problems figuring out Arizona's defensive schemes. I see him committing a bunch of turnovers. 

This line has come down enough where I'm going to get involved with the Broncos.
Too much of a class difference. Even an aged Peyton Manning can take advantage of a weak Browns run defense and a secondary that has given up 10 touchdowns throws with only one interception and will be missing stud cornerback Joe Haden and Tashaun Gipson. 
Josh McCown has put up fancy numbers the past three weeks, but he's stepping in against perhaps the best defense in the NFL. 
Denver has a bye next week. A focused Broncos squad should win this matchup by more than a field goal. 

Now that Bill O'Brien has figured out what everybody else knew that Brian Hoyer is his best quarterback, the Texans are ready to improve. They start here against one of the worst teams in the NFL - the Jaguars. 
Jacksonville has shown small improvement, but not enough to warrant being favored here especially since Arian Foster finally is fully healthy for Houston. Foster can dominate this game. So can J.J. Watt on the other side of the ball. Jacksonville can't match and has no answer for those players. 
The Jaguars are banged-up. Their best running back, T.J. Yeldon, may not play due to a groin injury and their best offensive lineman, guard Brandon Lindor, is out. The Jaguars gave up six sacks last week in a loss to Tampa Bay. Blake Bortles suffered an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder so he won't be 100 percent. 
Hoyer isn't anyone's idea of a Pro Bowl quarterback, but he's a huge upgrade on Ryan Mallet in terms of accuracy, game-managing and being a leader. Hoyer also has put up decent numbers - a 5-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 62.1 percent completions and 8.21 yards per pass attempt. 
The Jaguars have one of the weakest home fields as reflected in a 7-18-1 ATS mark. 

The oddsmaker considers these teams even with this point spread factoring in the Chargers' home field advantage being worth a field goal. 
But San Diego is a touchdown better than Pittsburgh due to the Steelers dropping down at quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger to Michael Vick. Forget the past. The 35-year-old Vick is just a shell of his former self. His sloppy ballhandling and lack of work ethic really hurt him now that his once awe inspiring talent has all but diminished. 
Vick has lost 14 of the last 20 times he's started. The Steelers' defense isn't nearly strong enough to compensate for a mediocre offense with a turnover prone quarterback.
The Chargers should have three of their starting offensive linemen healthy after being out last week. Astute San Diego coach Mike McCoy knows how to get the best of Philip Rivers, who remains in his prime. 

The Rams have that winning combination with the best pass rushing defensive front in football and potential franchise back Todd Gurley to run the ball. 
Finally healthy and comfortable in a new offense, Gurley had his breakout party last week rushing for 146 yards on 19 carries against Arizona. Green Bay has improved its run defense but still ranks 21st versus the run. 
The Packers are vulnerable to a great pass rushing defensive line minus right tackle Bryan Bulaga. Green Bay's weak links on its offensive line are replacement right tackle Don Barclay and left tackle David Bakhtiari, who will be matched against Robert Quinn. The Packers won't be able to double team any of the Rams because St. Louis doesn't have a weak link on its defensive front. 
Instead look for Green Bay to run the ball more than normal, which eats clock. Aaron Rodgers already is down Jordy Nelson and doesn't expect to have Davonte Adams either. 
The last time Nick Foles played at Lambeau Field was in 2013 when he led the Eagles to a 27-13 win throwing for 228 yards and three touchdowns. Gurley makes Foles and everyone else on offense a better player. 
Jeff Fisher has long been a money-making as an underdog coach with better than a 58 percent ATS record when his team gets points. 

This is a kill spot for the frustrated Chiefs, who are much better than their 1-3 record indicates. The Chiefs have already gone against three undefeated teams - Broncos, Packers and Bengals. 
The Bears are in total rebuild mode. They aren't going to win too many games this season. One of those rare victories came this past Sunday at home against Oakland. Now the Bears are traveling fat and happy to have achieved their first victory.
The Chiefs have a top 10 offense and their defense is stepping down in class. Justin Houston ranks with J.J. Watt as the best pass rusher in football. He'll be going against a Bears offensive line that will be missing its injured starting center and possibly left tackle. 
Jay Cutler is highly turnover prone when pressure is applied to him, which it will against a fierce pass rushing opponent in a very hostile environment. 
Chicago's average loss this season is by 19.6 points. I see a similar result here. The Chiefs have covered five of their last six home games when taking on a foe with a losing record. 

Seattle's defense is rounding into championship form with the arrival of safety Kam Chancellor last week. 

Detroit has problems offensively. The Lions rank last in rushing, their work-in-progress offensive line has allowed Matthew Stafford to absorb way too much punishment and Calvin Johnson has lost some of his explosiveness. 
Playing in the NFL's loudest outdoor venue can only make these problems worse for Detroit. This is the 0-3 Lions' season. But their offense hasn't found balance and the offensive line hasn't come together. That's not going to happen here against this elite defense. 
Detroit also has road issues covering just one of their last eight away matchups. 
Russell Wilson doesn't lose at Century Link Field. He's won 23 of 25 starts there. The Seahawks won't have Marshawn Lynch, but they are deep at running back and the Lions still will be missing their best defensive player, linebacker DeAndre Levy. 
Much is being made of the Lions in must-win mode. Only the 1992 San Diego Chargers made the playoffs after an 0-4 start. But the Seahawks know they must win this game as their next two games are against undefeated teams - at the Bengals and hosting the Panthers. 

The Saints are desperate at 0-3. They'll receive a huge lift with Drew Brees returning to the lineup. It's a Sunday night nationally televised game at home so the Saints will be super pumped. 
The Saints' offense is better than it has shown. It can expose a vulnerable Dallas defense that has relied on its offense to hide its shortcomings by playing ball control. 
The Cowboys, though, aren't capable of sustaining long drives minus Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray. Backup quarterback Brandon Weeden has lost his last nine starts. 
Weeden needs weapons to succeed, but Dallas just has fringe, role players manning the skill position spots with Bryant out and Murray in Philadelphia. 

Granted San Diego has a big edge at the skill positions. But the Browns have five Pro Bowl players combined in their offensive line and secondary. 
Philip Rivers can't do much when he's not adequately protected, nor can the Chargers take advantage of Cleveland's vulnerable run defense when their offensive line is battered by injuries.
Left guard Orlando Franklin already has been ruled out for San Diego. The Chargers had three other offensive line starters who didn't practice Friday and may not play either. They also could be down to their third-string tight end as Antonio Gates remains under suspension and Ladarius Green is questionable. 
The Browns aren't flashy, but quietly they are 5-0 ATS when taking five or more points under Mike Pettine. They also have the most dangerous player on the field in big-play guy Travis Benjamin, who already has five all-purpose touchdowns. 
Veteran Josh McCown should have time to pick his spots. The Chargers only have one sack on the season. 
The Chargers have been serious money-burners failing to cover in 11 of their last 14 games. They are just 1-5 during their last six home games. 

Atlanta is a surprising 3-0. The Falcons are fat and happy right now. 
New coach Dan Quinn has improved the Falcons. But they still are more finesse than brawn, vulnerable mentally and physically to the Texans. Houston is a power team. No team runs the ball more than the Texans.
I like Houston's edges in the trenches. The Falcons don't have a dominant blocker who can handle J.J. Watt. The Texans can control the line of scrimmage against the Falcons' defensive line, too.
The Texans are expecting to get back from injury this week star running back Arian Foster and left tackle Duane Brown, their best offensive lineman. Ryan Mallet is getting better as he settles into a starting role. This will be his third start in a row. Alfred Blue had a breakout performance this past Sunday and would be capable if Foster still isn't ready to play.
The Texans rank in the top 12 in yardage both offensively and defensively. The Falcons, on the other hand, rank in the bottom six in yards given up. 
Atlanta could be 0-3 in which case this line would be much different.
The Falcons trailed in the fourth quarter during all three of their games. They took advantage of a sleepwalking, out of sync Eagles team at home opening week, beat a bad Giants team in Week 2 and this past Sunday were able to overcome a big early deficit to defeat Dallas, which was minus Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and several key defensive players. 
The Falcons are ripe for a loss. The Texans are a bad matchup for them. 

There are reasons why Detroit is 0-2. Namely the Lions' offense isn't clicking and their defense is much worse than last season. 
Matthew Stafford is far from 100 percent. Denver has the top pass defense in the league and has the pass rushers to take advantage of Detroit's banged-up, refurbished offensive line that hasn't played well. 
On defense the Lions are greatly missing the departed Ndamukong Suh and injured linebacker DeAndre Levy. The Lions surrendered 33 points, 28 first downs and 483 yards to San Diego in Week 1. Then last week the Lions allowed the Vikings 350 yards and 20 first downs. 
Peyton Manning doesn't possess the physical skills he had in his prime. But he's still perhaps the smartest quarterback in the game and is much better in the shotgun. That's the formation Manning should find himself in against the Lions after new Broncos coach Gary Kubiak made the mistake of putting Manning under center opening week. 
Detroit's run defense is down from a year ago. I see C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman producing their best games of the season, which will set up Manning for his still deadly play-action passes. The Broncos also run better out of the shotgun averaging 3.6 yards from that formation compared to 2.7 when Manning is under center. 

The Colts are out of the gates slow. But keep in mind they faced two of what I consider to be the top four defenses in football the Bills on the road and Jets where they suffered a turnover festival.
Do you really see Indy opening 0-3? I sure don't. The Colts are stepping way down in class against the Titans, a team they swept last season winning by an average of 20.5 points. The Colts have won the past seven in this series going 6-0-1 ATS.
The Titans defense was weak last season and has yet to face a good offense this season going against the Buccaneers and Browns. Even so the Titans surrendered two long touchdown passes to Johnny Manziel before the Browns went conservative. If Manziel can do that against the Titans, it's scary to think of what Luck can do against the Titans. 
The Colts have injuries in their secondary, but they do have their top cornerback, Vontae Davis, healthy enough to play. This is a kill spot for the Colts. 

This isn't just a normal game for the Packers. It's their Revenge Game of the Century. And that's saying a lot since they've been in the NFL since 1921! I've personally closely followed the Packers since 1963, being a native of Wisconsin, and have never seen a bigger revenge game.
The Packers dominated the Seahawks on the road for 55 minutes of the NFC Championship Game this past season. Mike McCarthy's conservative play-calling and being unable to recover an on-side kick cost the Packers the game in which they once held a 16-point lead.
But now things are different. The Packers finally get Seattle in Green Bay. Even without Jordy Nelson, the Packers have eight Pro Bowl-worthy players on offense. Aaron Rodgers put up insane record numbers at Lambeau Field last season: a 28-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 133.2 regular season passer rating, highest in NFL history.
Seattle's defense is down from its previous two dominant seasons. Attrition and defections have chipped away at the Seahawks' defensive line and secondary depth. Two defensive guru coaches - Gus Bradley and Dan Quinn - have left for head coaching jobs. Safety Kam Chancellor, the quarterback of the defense, is holding out.
The Rams - with maybe the worst offensive line and starting two rookie linemen - scored 34 points on the Seahawks. 
Green Bay's defense is middle of the road. Seattle has offensive line problems with a lot of shuffling. It's mediocre at best. So are the Seahawks' wide receivers. Marshawn Lynch hasn't had as many big games away from Century Link Field. 
Seattle isn't nearly intimidating and doesn't play nearly as well on the road. The Seahawks are 2-9 SU and ATS during their past 11 September road matchups. 
This is a kill spot for the Packers. They'll get it done in a big way. 

The Eagles finally got their offense in gear during the second half against Atlanta. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they had dug themselves into too big of a hole to recover. Still, they could have taken a late lead if not for a missed 44-yard field goal.
The Eagles will be sharper in Week 2 at home. Dallas' pass rush is down without suspended Greg Hardy and injured Randy Gregory. The Cowboys also are without suspended linebacker Rolando McClain. 
The Eagles have improved defensively and draw the Cowboys minus Dez Bryant, their lone deep threat and by far their best receiver. The Cowboys lack the running backs and wide receivers now to trade points with the high-powered Eagles.