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NFL Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
09-26-21	Bears v. Browns -7	Top	6-26	Win	100	35 h 39 m	Show
Justin Fields makes his first NFL start. He's an exciting talent, but he's not nearly NFL-ready. Not helping matters for Fields is Chicago's offensive line isn't ready either. The Browns are better defensively than they have shown. I regard Myles Garrett as the AFC's most feared pass rusher along with T.J. Watt. The Browns are the only team in the NFL sporting a top-three grade in both passing and run blocking. That's how good their offensive line is. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt could be the best running tandem in the league. Chubb has scored at least one rushing TD in eight consecutive games. Baker Mayfield is leading the NFL in completion percentage and now gets Odell Beckham Jr. for the first time this season. The Bears yielded Matthew Stafford's highest career passer rating opening week. Beckham is an electrifying presence who is sure to fire up the home crowd. The Bears' plight will be made worse if run-stuffing nose tackle Eddie Goldman still can't make his season debut because of a knee injury.
09-20-21	Lions v. Packers -10.5	Top	17-35	Win	100	148 h 11 m	Show
The Packers are in a kill spot hosting a Detroit team that is much worse than its final score indicated from Week 1. The 49ers led the Lions, 31-10, at halftime. So the 49ers' 41-33 final is misleading. Make no mistake, the Lions are terrible. Their defense is slow, can't pressure the QB and the secondary just lost cornerback Jeff Okudah for the season. The Packers laid an egg in Week 1. They are eager to show the Monday night national TV audience just how potent they can be. Aaron Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder is a dangerous dude. Green Bay could not have asked for an easier pasty to achieve their atonement.
09-19-21	Chiefs -3.5 v. Ravens		35-36	Loss	-107	31 h 16 m	Show
All summer Andy Reid works on various offensive schemes and innovations. His work and creativity is unleashed during the first month of the season when opponents aren't fully prepared for it. The combination of Reid and superstar QB Patrick Mahomes has resulted in the Chiefs never losing a September game in 11 tries with Mahomes under center. Mahomes has a mind-boggling 35-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during these games. The Ravens haven't been able to stop the Chiefs losing each of the last three seasons to Kansas City. This time around the Chiefs are much healthier than Baltimore. Mahomes has completed 70.5 percent of his throws in three games against the Ravens for an average of 378.6 yards while accounting for 10 TD's with only one interception. The Ravens are going to have to try to stop Mahomes while possibly missing their two top cornerbacks. Marcus Peters is out and Jimmy Smith is questionable with an ankle injury. I don't see the Ravens being able to slow down Kansas City while also being unable to keep up with Mahomes on the offensive end. The left side of Baltimore's offensive line is banged up, including star left tackle Ronnie Stanley, and the team is down to backup running backs with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards lost for the season.
09-19-21	Vikings +4.5 v. Cardinals		33-34	Win	100	100 h 1 m	Show
The Cardinals were impressive in dismantling the Titans on the road this past Sunday. The Vikings,on the other hand, laid an egg losing in overtime to the Bengals. Yes, the Vikings have serious offensive line injuries and inexperienced cornerbacks. But they have a very defensive front seven that will be made even better if linebacker Anthony Barr is back this week. Mike Zimmer should have the Vikings in a very serious mood while the Cardinals return to the desert fat and happy. Kyler Murry is proving to be an elite talent. The Cardinals, though, are far from a complete team. They also are extremely vulnerable at the cornerback spots. Kirk Cousins has the skill position stars to take advantage with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. The Cardinals deserve to be a home favorite. But no more than by a field goal.
09-19-21	Patriots -5.5 v. Jets		25-6	Win	100	94 h 41 m	Show
Having watched both the Patriots and Jets it's clear New England is at least a touchdown better than the Jets - and that's being the road team. The Patriots dominated yardage and time of possession against the Dolphins. They should have won that game. The Patriots rate enormous edges in the trenches against the Jets. New York had trouble protecting Zach Wilson against the Panthers and that was when they had its best offensive lineman, left tackle Mekhi Becton. He suffered a knee injury against Carolina and is out. Bill Belichick is 23-11-1 ATS for 68 percent the past 36 times the Patriots have played following a loss. Belichick also is 9-1 the past 10 times he's faced a rookie QB. New England rookie QB Mac Jones is in a far better position to succeed than Wilson playing behind an excellent offensive line, with a much stronger defense and excellent, proven coaching. The Jets barely averaged 15 points a game last season. They couldn't even reach that number against Carolina. Wilson didn't have time to throw and no ground game to rely on.
09-19-21	Saints v. Panthers +3.5		7-26	Win	100	93 h 13 m	Show
The Saints played a great game against the Packers last week. But the Saints are not the 11-win power of past seasons. They have a turnover-prone QB and below average receivers with their top two wideouts hurt. Their defensive line depth is gone and their secondary is extremely vulnerable especially cornerback Marshon Lattimore out. The Panthers are an ascending team in Matt Ruhle's second year. They have the weapons to exploit the Saints' secondary with Christian McCaffrey, Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore. Carolina also has a lot of young talented defensive players. Brian Burns is an emerging star pass rusher. The Saints suffered a number of injuries last week, including one to center Erik McCoy, who is one of the better centers in the league.
09-19-21	Raiders v. Steelers -5.5	Top	26-17	Loss	-107	93 h 15 m	Show
All the preseason talk about the AFC North was about the Browns and Ravens. Lost in the glare of those teams is the Steelers, who happen to win 12 games last season and the AFC North. Pittsburgh led the NFL in sacks and had a top-three defense. There are new starters, but the Steelers' defense remains top-notch. Ben Roethlisberger is fresh right now. He has three strong wide receivers and a ground attack that now must be respected thanks to rookie running back Najee Harris. Las Vegas isn't in Pittsburgh's class. The Raiders also are in a horrible situational spot. They are coming off the biggest victory since they moved to Las Vegas two years ago with their Monday night home upset of the Ravens, which was the first game in Las Vegas where fans could attend. Now the Raiders have to travel cross-country on a short week. They also draw an early start time.
09-16-21	Giants v. Washington Football Team -3.5	Top	29-30	Loss	-100	20 h 5 m	Show
The Giants have two major things against them besides traveling on a short week, which is already factored into the line. No. 1: A wretched offensive line that is taking on a very good Washington pass rush headed by emerging superstar Chase Young and underrated Montez Sweat. That offensive line - ignored during the offseason by Giants management - is down starting guard Shane Lemieux, too. Von Miller caused havoc in Week 1 during the Broncos', 27-13, road win against New York. That score is even more lopsided than the final score as Daniel Jones scored a meaningless TD on the final play. No. 2: Jones. He's the most turnover-prone QB in the league. He has either fumbled or thrown an interception 57 times in 27 career starts. Jones isn't helped by the play-calling of dull-witted Jason Garrett, perhaps the least creative offensive coordinator in the NFL. The perception, judging by the betting line of around a field goal, is that these teams are even given that Washington has home field, which generally is considered worth three points. I don't consider these teams to be even, however. Where are the Giants' edges? I can't find any. New York has a respectable defense. Washington has a top-five caliber defense. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke is less likely to turn the ball over compared to Jones in what should be a conservative game. Terry McLaurin is easily the best wide receiver and I would take Antonio Gibson above Saquon Barkley as the top running back on the field. Don't agree? Consider this then: Barkley averaged 1.8 yards last season before suffering his ACL tear. He averaged 2.6 yards against the Broncos in 10 carries. Barkley isn't likely ticketed for heavy duty here playing his second game in four days following his serious knee surgery. Gibson will be heavily featured. The Giants yielded nearly six yards per carry against Denver running backs Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. I would give Washington the coaching checkmark, too, preferring the braintrust of Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner over Joe Judge and Garrett.
09-13-21	Ravens -4 v. Raiders	Top	27-33	Loss	-110	148 h 38 m	Show
Sure the Raiders will be up for this Monday game being their first home game in Las Vegas in front of fans. It won't matter. The Ravens totally outclass the Raiders. Baltimore is ready to go after still another unbeaten preseason. The Ravens have won and covered opening week each of the last five seasons with their average victory margin being by 30.2 points. The Raiders went 2-6 during their first year in Las Vegas last season. The Ravens have been a strong road team under John Harbaugh winning 13 of their past 16 away contests. They also have covered 83 percent of the time as road chalk during the last two seasons. The Ravens return nearly all of their starters from last year's 11-win team. Lamar Jackson should produce monster numbers against a Raiders defense that has ranked in the bottom-four each of the last four years. The Raiders' personnel moves continue to puzzle. They got rid of key members of their offensive line. So a strength now is a major question mark. The spotlight will be on the electrifying Jackson, but the Ravens also will control the trenches. The combination is enough to produce a win by double-digits.
09-12-21	Broncos -2.5 v. Giants		27-13	Win	100	122 h 12 m	Show
Teddy Bridgewater has won 65 percent of his NFL starts going 22-12. This has been accomplished because Bridgewater is mobile and a highly-accurate game manager-type who has had the good fortune to have played with strong defenses. That's the case again this season. Denver's defense should be one of the best in the NFL with the return of pass rusher Von Miller and the addition of rookie cornerback Patrick Surtain to go with star pass rusher Bradley Chubb and a very strong secondary. I don't see the Giants producing much against this caliber of defense. The Giants had the second-worst offense last season. They failed to address their offensive line shortcomings so I'm not expecting much, if any, improvement from turnover-prone QB Daniel Jones. Denver's defensive guru coach Vic Fangio is top-notch at mixing blitzing schemes and getting the best matchups. Bridgewater has multiple weapons at his disposal, including Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, Noah Fant and KJ Hamler. The Broncos are at least a level higher than the Giants.
09-12-21	Vikings -3 v. Bengals	Top	24-27	Loss	-120	120 h 51 m	Show
Much is made of the Bengals' excellent wide receiving group. But what really needs to be said about the Bengals is their serious flaws on defense and in their offensive line. They could have the worst guards in the league. The Vikings were a top-four defensive unit for three straight years until last year when injuries and opt-outs caused a huge drop. The Vikings have revamped their defense to their previous standards. Underrated Danielle Hunter is back and he's going to wreak havoc on the Bengals' pitiful offensive line. It remains to be seen how much mobility Joe Burrow will have in his first game since tearing his ACL/MCL last season. Defenses averaged 3.2 sacks of Burrow before he went down. This could be Mike Zimmer's most-explosive Vikings team in his eight years at Minnesota. Dalvin Cook is the second-best all-purpose running back in the NFL and Justin Jefferson is a top-seven wide receiver. Kirk Cousins also has red zone master Adam Thielen to throw to.
09-09-21	Cowboys v. Bucs -7.5	Top	29-31	Loss	-105	100 h 47 m	Show
I don't see the Cowboys being able to stay within double digits of the Buccaneers. Unlike last season, when it took them half the season for them to gel under new QB Tom Brady, the Buccaneers are fully in sync. The Super Bowl champs have all of their starters back and their deep set of receivers should carve up a Dallas defense that was historically bad last season. I don't expect the Cowboys to surrender 29.6 points a game and permit 34 TD passes like in 2020. But I certainly don't expect them to be one of the better defensive units either as they make the change to new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. This will be Dak Prescott's first game since suffering a horrific broken ankle last year. He'll be behind a thin offensive line minus several players due to injuries and COVID. The Buccaneers are top-notch against the run so I'm not expecting a big game either from Ezekiel Elliott. Super Bowl champions opening at home are a dominant 18-2 SU, 14-4-2 ATS.
01-24-21	Bucs +4 v. Packers	Top	31-26	Win	100	132 h 24 m	Show
If there is one NFC team that matches up well to Green Bay and can beat the Packers it's the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay proved that back in Week 6 when it took apart the Packers, 38-10. The Buccaneers shut out the Packers for the final three quarters. It was Green Bay's worst game of the season by far. So what's happened since then? The Packers' defense has improved and Aaron Rodgers put that game behind him to have one of the most magnificent seasons in NFL history. The Packers have the league's No. 1 scoring offense, a good defense and home-field where the weather forecast is for temperatures in the 20s and around a 40 percent chance of snow. But the Buccaneers also have improved. They, too, are peaking at the right time. Tom Brady is in sync with his new offense and receivers. Davonte Adams gives Rodgers the best receiver on the field. But Brady has the four next best receivers with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander can only lock up on one of Tampa Bay's trio of excellent wideouts. Tampa Bay has won six in a row. The Bucs haven't lost by more than a field goal in their last nine games. Cold January weather doesn't bother Brady. He's certainly experienced it. Tampa Bay is averaging 36.6 points in its last five games. The Buccaneers put up 30 and 31 points in their playoff victories against two outstanding defensive teams, Washington and New Orleans. Green Bay's defense had just 11 interceptions. The Buccaneers picked off Drew Brees three times last Sunday. The Buccaneers led the NFL in run defense holding foes to 80.6 rushing yards per game, 10 yards fewer than the NFL's second-best run defense, and now they could get back star nose tackle Vita Vea from injured reserve. He's expected to practice this week. The Packers couldn't run on Tampa Bay in their earlier meeting. Aaron Jones was held to 15 yards on 10 carries. Inside linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David also make this a tough game for Green Bay. Those two not only can pressure the quarterback, but they are outstanding in pass coverage. They were dominant in Tampa Bay's victory against the Packers. Not to take anything away from Green Bay's smashing win against the Rams last week, but Aaron Donald only was about 50 percent because of a rib injury. The Packers didn't even need to double team him. The Packers have proven vulnerable to power run teams. The 49ers exploited that weakness in the NFC title game last season and the Colts had that going for them in their victory against the Packers this season. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette give the Buccaneers a pair of power runners and provide Brady with needed balance. While the Buccaneers have some of the best linebackers in the NFL, the Packers' linebackers are composed of free agents and middle-to-late round draft picks. Then there are special teams. Thus far the Packers have been able to cover up their weak punt and punt return teams. Green Bay ranks 30th in net punt average and 31st in punt returns. They also have a bad long snapper. These are areas that could bite the Packers now that they are playing their toughest opponents.
01-17-21	Bucs v. Saints -3	Top	30-20	Loss	-110	127 h 57 m	Show
I've never bought into that cliche of it's tough to beat a team three times in a season. New Orleans beat Tampa Bay, 34-20, opening week and defeated the Buccaneers far worse in Tampa, 38-3, in Week 9 when Tom Brady was more in sync with his new team. Brady had a 2-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those losses to the Saints. Truth be told, Brady hasn't been that sharp when taking on strong defenses such as New Orleans. The Saints could have the hottest defense during the second half of the season. They've held seven of their last 10 foes to 16 points or fewer. New Orleans defense only had to be on the field for 21 minutes against the Bears last week. I like the Saints' defensive line, perhaps the deepest in the league, to win the battle of the trenches especially with the Buccaneers losing guard Alex Cappa to an ankle injury. Brady doesn't have the mobility to escape a strong pass rush, which the Saints can generate without blitzes. Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU and ATS against playoff teams. The Saints are the steadier team with a highly-efficient offense and the best playmaker on the field in Alvin Kamara. Drew Brees has his top wideouts healthy again, including Michael Thomas. New Orleans has home-field, far more postseason experience than Tampa Bay and the built-in confidence of two previous lopsided victories.
01-10-21	Browns v. Steelers -5.5		48-37	Loss	-110	78 h 51 m	Show
Despite holding out eight starters, including Ben Roethlisberger, T.J. Watt and center Maurkice Pouncey, the Steelers nearly upset the Browns on the road this past Sunday losing 24-22 when Mason Rudolph threw an incomplete pass on a game-tying two point conversion try with 1:22 to play. Now the Steelers are rested and host the Browns, who they have beaten 17 straight times at home. This includes a 38-7 beatdown of the Browns back in October. Cleveland hasn't made the playoffs since 2002. Pittsburgh is far healthier than the Browns, who are dealing with multiple COVID issues. Denzel Ward, the Browns' best cornerback, has been sidelined with COVID. Head coach Kevin Stefanski won't be able to coach the game because of COVID. Olivier Vernon, the Browns' second-best pass rusher, is out after tearing his Achilles in Week 17. I question the Browns' maturity level and now their coaching without Stefanski. The Steelers have a far better defense than the Browns. I also trust Roethlisberger far more than Baker Mayfield, especially playing at Heinz Field where his lifetime splits have been far better at home than on the road. Pittsburgh led the NFL with 56 sacks. Watt is your probable Defensive Player of the Year after leading the NFL with 15 sacks. The Steelers also had 27 takeaways, second-most in the league, and gave up the third-fewest points at 19.5 per game. The line on this game has gone up. But I see the Steelers winning by at least a touchdown so it's worth getting involved.
01-10-21	Bears v. Saints -9.5	Top	9-21	Win	100	127 h 14 m	Show
The Bears couldn't do it at home last Sunday against the Packers.They weren't good enough. They aren't good enough to stay close either to the Saints. Chicago made the playoffs only because the league allowed one extra wild card berth this season. The Bears are who they are - an 8-8 team with a single victory against a playoff team. That was by one point against the Buccaneers when they hosted Tampa Bay in Week 5 on Thursday night. The Buccaneers weren't fully in sync then and 43-year-old Tom Brady had to play on a short week. Chicago's defense has regressed to just being slightly above average at best. I'm far from sold on the Bears' offense. Mitchell Trubisky was able to put up excellent numbers during the last quarter of the season because his opponents were the Lions, Texans, Vikings and Jaguars. Those are all bottom-six defenses. The Bears went 2-4 in their North Division. They were lucky to split with the Vikings and Lions, both of whom had terrible seasons. New Orleans swept its South Division, which was more competitive top-to-bottom than the NFC North. The Saints don't have any glaring weaknesses. They scored the fifth-most points and gave up the fifth-fewest points. The Saints have the best shot of any team in the NFC to take down the Packers and capture the NFC Conference championship. The Saints caught a huge break that this game is on Sunday. That extra day means Alvin Kamara will be eligible if he passes COVID protocols. The Saints also expect to get back Michael Thomas. He's an elite wide receiver. New Orleans still averaged 31.8 points in nine games without Thomas. I believe this will be Drew Brees' final season. The Saints really want to win the Super Bowl to close out his era. New Orleans is going to be highly motivated and likely to pour it on the overmatched Bears because of previous postseason failures that were caused in heart-breaking fashion. The Bears are this far on house money. It's house money they didn't earn, or deserve. Deep inside they know that after their Week 17 failure against the Packers. The Bears lack the quarterback, confidence and elite defense to hang with New Orleans.
01-03-21	Titans -7.5 v. Texans		41-38	Loss	-104	33 h 26 m	Show
Houston's season was finished before Halloween. Now the nightmarish 2020 year concludes for the Texans against Tennessee, one of only three teams in the NFL to average 30 points. The Texans' bottom-five defense isn't going to be able to stop a high-powered Titans squad that is in must-win mode. Houston not only lacks the run defense to contain Derrick Henry, but doesn't have the defensive backfield speed to keep Ryan Tannehill from picking it apart throwing to wide receiving studs A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. Henry has averaged 187 all-purpose yards with five TD's in his last three games against the Texans. Tannehill's numbers against Houston in the last three games are 67 percent completions, 8.7 YPA and an 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Titans were slowed down at Green Bay last week because of snowy conditions. That's not going to be the case here in Houston's temperature-controlled venue. Houston's morale has to be questioned. The Texans have lost four in a row, including falling, 37-31, to the Bengals at home last week. A Bengal offense devoid of Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd produced 540 yards against Houston. That's enough to cause serious chemistry and confidence issues for any defense. It's scary to think how many points the Titans can put up against the Texans. Deshaun Watson is pitted against that, expected by the oddsmaker to exchange enough points with the Titans to keep Houston's loss to around a touchdown. How? The Texans rank 30th in rushing. They are missing two of their three best wide receivers. Their tight ends are dreadful and their best blocker, left tackle Laremy Tunsil, is out with an ankle injury. The Titans' defense isn't very good, but it doesn't need to be very good to tee off on Watson since they are likely to be playing with a lead throughout. Oh, yes, Watson is banged-up with a sore elbow and arm. Even as clueless a coach as Romeo Crennel is, he has to realize he can't risk his franchise QB if the Titans should get way in front. So it wouldn't be shocking if Watson didn't even finish this game.
01-03-21	Cardinals v. Rams +3		7-18	Win	100	26 h 22 m	Show
Sean McVay may have picked up a few critics since the Rams' Super Bowl loss to the Patriots two seasons ago. I'm not one of them. The Rams have a far better defense than the Cardinals and McVay had an entire week to prepare fill-in QB John Wolford and devise a suitable game plan. Losing Jared Goff is a negative. Goff, though, isn't an elite quarterback. He's slightly above average - and that's with a clean pocket and being in a warm-weather site. The Rams lose experience and downfield passing with the drop from Goff to Wolford. But they gain far more quarterback mobility. McVay is one of the top play-callers in the NFL. I'm confident he will put Wolford in a position to succeed. The Rams won't have their top wide receiver Cooper Kupp, or probably two of their three best running backs. They still provide plenty of receiving weapons for Wolford with Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds, underrated rookie Van Jefferson and one of the better tight end duos in the NFL, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. The Cardinals have sprung a leak with their run defense due in part to injuries. 49ers backup running back Jeff Wilson rushed for 183 yards against them last week. Arizona has permitted 5.2 yards per run during the past four games. Effective running by the Rams can set up Wolford. At best, the Cardinals' defense is mediocre. They rank 15th in scoring defense. LA's defense could be the best in the NFL ranking first in total yards and pass defense while giving up the third-fewest points at 19.3 per game. Kyler Murray needs to run and roam free for the Cardinals to have success. Murray is hampered by a lower-body injury. He also has to deal with the monstrous Aaron Donald, the NFC's sack leader with 13 1/2. Murry relies on the magnificent DeAndre Hopkins. However, Hopkins isn't 100 percent either and he has his own defensive demon to content with - shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey. So the outstanding Rams defense is well equipped to deal with the Cardinals' offensive strengths. Murry is 0-3 lifetime against the Rams, who have held him to a 57 percent completion rate, 5.8 YPA, a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and only an average of 14 yards rushing per game. McVay has never lost to the Cardinals posting a 7-0 SU, 6-0-1 ATS record versus Arizona. The Rams have beaten the Cardinals by an average of three touchdowns. The Rams wouldn't need to win this game to earn a playoff spot if the Bears lose to the Packers. However, that game starts the same time as this matchup so the Rams will be assured of having their full focus and going all out.
01-03-21	Seahawks -6.5 v. 49ers	Top	26-23	Loss	-112	33 h 11 m	Show
Look, I greatly respect the coaching staff of the 49ers especially Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. But the 49ers are out of gas both physically and mentally. It's difficult to keep a team together that misses the playoffs after reaching the Super Bowl the previous season and has the longest injury list in the league. San Francisco is 2-6 in its last eight games with every loss during this span coming by at least eight points. Seattle is coming on especially its defense, which has surrendered the fewest points in the league during the last seven weeks. The Seahawks draw third-string QB C.J. Beathard, who is 2-14 in his 16 NFL appearances. He has a career mark of 17 touchdowns and 23 turnovers while being sacked 43 times. Seattle has the most sacks in the NFL since Week 8. Superstar safety Jamal Adams already has set a single season sack mark for a safety. Aside from tight end George Kittle, Beathard doesn't have his top receiving weapons with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel ruled out. San Francisco is missing some of its top offensive linemen, too, including left tackle Trent Williams. The 49ers' pop-gun, conservative ground-based attack isn't going to produce many points and will be helpless if the Seahawks jump to a big lead, which I anticipate. Seattle has held its past five foes to an average of 12.2 points. Defensively the 49ers not only are missing multiple linemen - as they have all season - but have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Cornerbacks K'Waun Williams and spiritual leader and warrior Richard Sherman are out. Emmanuel Mosely is questionable. Russell Wilson fired 4 TD passes in the Seahawks' 37-27 Week 8 victory against San Francisco. The Seahawks still have an outside shot at earning the NFC's top seed. So they aren't going to lack incentive.
01-03-21	Steelers +10.5 v. Browns		22-24	Win	100	31 h 33 m	Show
I get why the Browns are such heavy favorites. I just don't trust them even though the Steelers will be sitting a number of starters, including Ben Roethlisberger and T.J. Watt, who probably will be named Defensive Player of the Year. How proven and mature are the Browns in must-win spots when they are heavy chalk? How sharp is first-year Browns coach Kevin Stefanski when he had Baker Mayfield launch 53 passes against the Jets last week when his team was missing their top four wide receivers and had all inexperienced wideouts? How in sync will the Browns be having to deal with a heavy dose of COVID issues the past couple of weeks? As it is, the Browns will be minus their top cornerback, Denzel Ward, along with several other players due to COVID. Cleveland is expected to get back two key offensive linemen, Wyatt Teller and Jedrick Wills. But that's not a given. Wills was supposed to play last week, but was a last-minute scratch. The Steelers are still the Steelers, a well-coached team with a lot of pride that could earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win and a Bills loss to the Dolphins. Pittsburgh is 22-8-2 ATS the past 32 times as an underdog for a long-term percentage of 73 percent in that role. Cleveland is 2-5 ATS the past seven times as favorites this season. Mason Rudolph proved to be a stiff when called upon last season. I joked that Myles Garrett made a huge mistake by trying to injure Rudolph knocking him out of the game. Rudolph, in his third season, is said to be improved. Certainly he's not going to lack motivation. If I were a member of the Steelers, I would take it as an insult that Stefanski named Garrett team captain for this game after Garrett's reprehensible helmet-hitting actions against Rudolph last season. These teams don't exactly love each other. Bottom line for the Browns is they need to win. But they don't need to win by double-digits.
12-27-20	Browns -9.5 v. Jets	Top	16-23	Loss	-110	79 h 24 m	Show
Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski has turned in one of the best coaching jobs in the NFL this season. The 10-4 Browns are in line to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. They have a chance to win the AFC North trailing the slumping Steelers by one game. Cleveland hosts Pittsburgh next week. The Browns are far superior to the Jets in talent and coaching. But could the Browns get caught peeking ahead to their showdown against the Steelers against such a lowly opponent? That happened last Sunday to the Rams. They were upset by the Jets a week before meeting the Seahawks for an NFC West Division showdown. It won't happen to the Browns, though. The Jets' shocking victory against the Rams sets up this handicap to Cleveland in two respects: The Browns won't take the Jets lightly after seeing what happened to the Rams and the Jets are fat and happy now that they won't go winless. The Browns also know they must come in with a strong effort because they will be short-handed down their top four wide receivers and linebackers B.J. Goodson and Jacob Phillip due to COVID-19. I made this play before the news broke on Saturday about these six players being out. This would not be my NFL Game of the Year if I would have known that. However, I still very much like the Browns to cover this number. Not only has the line dropped because of this news, giving the Browns more value, but also Cleveland has the right scheme to deal effectively without their top wide receivers. The Browns use more three tight end sets than any other NFL team with Austin Hooper, Harrison Bryant and David Njoku. Any one of these three could start for some NFL teams. Kareem Hunt is a very strong receiver out of the backfield. The Browns can deal without experienced wideouts because they are heavily ground-oriented with two outstanding running backs. Baker Mayfield relies on the run to set up his play-action. Cleveland is the No. 3 rushing team in the league. Nick Chubb and Hunt could be the best running back duo in the league. The Jets are decent in only one area - run defense. However, New York just lost its best player, defensive lineman Quinnen Williams. He's out for the season after suffering a neck injury. So the Browns shouldn't have a problem running, especially with Mayfield playing his finest ball of the season. Mayfield has a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games while averaging more than 300 yards passing during this span. The Jets have surrendered 30 TD passes. The Jets rank last in yards, passing yards and scoring at 14.7 points per game. The Browns have their best cornerback, Denzel Ward, back healthy. Sam Darnold has a pathetic 6-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Linebacker Mack Wilson is a capable replacement for Goodson. Many teams have multiple injuries at this late juncture of the season. The Jets are no exception. This is what Jets coach Adam Gase was quoted as saying, "We're running thin, those practice squad guys will get an opportunity this week." How good can the Jets' practice squad players be when they couldn't beat out the least talented starters/backups in the league?
12-26-20	49ers v. Cardinals -5	Top	20-12	Loss	-107	59 h 15 m	Show
The Cardinals beat the 49ers, 24-20, back in Week 1 when San Francisco was healthy. Now the 49ers are decimated by injuries and demoralized following a 41-33 loss to the Cowboys last week that eliminated them from playoff contention one season after reaching the Super Bowl. Oh, yes, San Francisco is down to third-string QB C.J. Beathard. Care to know the 49ers' record in Beathard's previous 15 appearances, including 11 starts? It's 1-14. The 49ers are well-coached, but they can't overcome probably the highest and most significant injury list in the league. The 49ers have committed multiple turnovers in eight consecutive games due to sloppy quarterback play. San Francisco is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven games. All of the defeats have been by at least eight points. It's obvious the 49ers are out of fuel at this late stage. Not so for the 8-6 Cardinals who are battling for a playoff spot. They rank third in the NFL in yards per game and are 13th in total defense. Sparked by Kyler Murray, the Cardinals have produced 30 or more points in six of their last 10 games.
12-20-20	Texans v. Colts -7		20-27	Push	0	99 h 47 m	Show
The Texans' season was really done when Bill O'Brien foolishly gave away DeAndre Hopkins. Deshaun Watson is doing the best he can but he has no ingredients. The Texans are one of the five-worst teams in the NFL. They rank last in rushing and second to last in stopping the run. They also give up the second-most yards. The Colts dominate the trenches in this matchup. Jonathan Taylor and Philip Rivers are in line for huge games. The Texans lost their nose tackle, Brandon Dunn, and are minus their top cornerback, Bradley Roby to suspension. The Texans have allowed 25 TD passes with just three interceptions while surrendering the highest passer rating in the league. The teams met just two weeks ago and the Texans managed to hang in losing, 26-20. Since then the Texans have lost Will Fuller and Roby. Now this game has become far more of a mismatch than this spread shows. I expect Indy to win by double-digits.
12-20-20	Seahawks -6 v. Washington Football Team		20-15	Loss	-109	47 h 53 m	Show
Washington's defense has been playing well. But so has Seattle's. The Seahawks' defense has been below the radar giving up just 16.2 points in their last five games. Seattle draws Washington minus Alex Smith and probably without Antonio Gibson. That means Washington is without its top quarterback and best running back. Russell Wilson versus Dwayne Haskins is a monster mismatch. I have far more faith in Wilson and the Seahawks' offense than in Washington's offense especially with Haskins under center.
12-19-20	Bills -6.5 v. Broncos	Top	48-19	Win	100	78 h 18 m	Show
The Bills are coming together as an elite team with their defense playing much better. Buffalo was very strong defensively the previous three seasons. However the Bills began this year slowly giving up 26.5 points during their first 10 games. But following their Week 11 bye, the Bills have yielded 18.7 points in their last three games. Denver has scored 21 or fewer points in six of Drew Lock's last nine starts. Lock has been picked off 13 times during this span. Josh Allen has turned the corner in this his third NFL season. He has accounted for 35 TD's proving to be both a throwing and running threat. The Broncos are without their best pass rusher, Von Miller, and have a cluster injury problem in their secondary minus their two top cornerbacks, suspended A.J. Bouye, and injured Bryce Callahan. Denver also is without injured cornerback Duke Dawson.
12-13-20	Steelers v. Bills -2.5		15-26	Win	100	103 h 52 m	Show
Sparked by Josh Allen, who has accounted for 33 TD's, the Bills have a top-10 offense. Now the Bills' defense is coming around to where it was during the previous three seasons when it was one of the league's best. Buffalo's pass defense has a 7-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio in its last six games after giving up 12 TD throws with just two interceptions during the first six games. As the Bills become a more complete team, the Steelers are regressing. This isn't surprising since Pittsburgh had won six games by an average of 4.8 points. The Steelers' ground game has gone from mediocre to one of the worst in the league and their defense has been hit hard by multiple linebacker injuries. Losing Devin Bush and Bud Dupree really hurts their pass coverage. Both teams played on Monday, but the Steelers have to make the journey to upstate New York and will be playing for the third time in 11 days. The Bills defeated the Steelers, 17-10, at Pittsburgh last season and Buffalo is better this season.
12-13-20	Washington Football Team v. 49ers -3		23-15	Loss	-120	99 h 43 m	Show
Fresh off upsetting Pittsburgh, Washington has to travel on a short week and in a rare letdown spot. The 49ers also were in action on Monday, but have a far less journey. San Francisco also has more experience playing in Arizona. Playing there isn't so bad for the 49ers considering they were 1-4 at Levi's Stadium this season. The 49ers are far from full strength, but they are getting healthier each week. San Francisco is extremely well-coached on both sides of the ball and are very familiar with Alex Smith. Washington is likely to be without its best running back, Antonio Gibson. He's dealing with turf toe. This non-division game holds a lot of meaning to Kyle Shanahan. He and his father, Mike, were fired by Washington owners Daniel Synder. The 49ers shut out Washington, 9-0, last season and Kyle Shanahan awarded the game ball from that win to his father.
12-13-20	Colts -2.5 v. Raiders		44-27	Win	100	99 h 31 m	Show
The Raiders are the only team that can claim victories against the Chiefs and Saints. But Las Vegas also is capable of losing to any team. The Raiders needed a late long TD pass to nip the winless Jets last week and two weeks ago were blown out by the 4-8 Falcons, 43-6. Derek Carr is the Raiders' focal point if Josh Jacobs remains out with an ankle injury. Carr is having a good season, but I would take the Colts defense over him. The Colts give up the fifth-fewest yards, the third-fewest TD passes and have the fourth-best defensive passer rating. Philip Rivers is not a mobile QB and the Colts have offensive line injuries. But the Raiders are tied for the third-fewest sacks in the NFL with 15. The Raiders are well below average in all of the major defensive categories, including ranking 28th in scoring defense allowing 28.9 points per game. This figure would be even higher if the Raiders didn't hold the Browns to six points in a game heavily impacted by bad weather and gusting winds. I see the Colts as a well-coached, professional team with a good defense that rarely beats itself. The Raiders can't make that claim. They are too undisciplined and inconsistent.
12-13-20	Texans v. Bears +1.5		7-36	Win	100	95 h 29 m	Show
I'll take the superior Bears defense and home field to trump Deshaun Watson. Only 11 teams have surrendered fewer points than the Bears. The Texans defense ranks 30th in yards and 31st in rushing yards. Chicago's ground attack has picked up the past several weeks with David Montgomery playing well. Mitch Trubisky gives the Bears a mobility factor they didn't have with Nick Foles. Trubisky is turnover-prone, but the Texans have the fewest takeaways in the league. Allen Robinson provides the Bears with the best wide receiver on the field. Watson's numbers go way down when he doesn't have Will Fuller, who is suspended. The Texans also are without Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb, too. Brandin Cooks is the Texans' best receiver left and he's questionable with a concussion. Pass defense is a Bears strength. Watson can't rely on the Texans' last-ranked ground attack.
12-13-20	Chiefs -7 v. Dolphins	Top	33-27	Loss	-110	95 h 15 m	Show
Brian Flores is a leading contender to win Coach of the Year honors as somehow the Dolphins are 8-4. But I see them getting exposed here by the Chiefs. Miami's talent level, especially on offense, can't compare to the Chiefs. The Dolphins haven't broken 20 points in their last three games and that's going against the Broncos, Jets and Bengals. They've faced some bad quarterbacks during their last eight games: Brandon Allen, Ryan Finley, Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Joe Flacco and C.J. Beathard. Now the Dolphins get Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has won seven in a row. Mahomes' numbers during this win streak are 71.5 percent completions for 2,341 yards and an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rookie Tua Tagovailoa can't keep up. His statistics look better than how he has played. We're not talking about Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow here. The Dolphins lost to the Broncos three weeks ago. Kansas City beat Denver twice winning by an average of 16.5 points. Kansas City has won its last 11 road/neutral site games. The Chiefs have covered 67 percent during the past 19 times they've been chalk.
12-06-20	Rams -2.5 v. Cardinals	Top	38-28	Win	100	133 h 8 m	Show
The Cardinals are an improving team that is struggling right now held in check the past two weeks by the Seahawks and Patriots, neither of whom's defense can compare to the Rams. Kyler Murray may not be 100 percent. The Rams are the best team in football if you go by yardage, having the largest differential in the league. LA ranks in the top-five in all of the major defensive categories. Aaron Donald is the most disruptive lineman in the NFL and Jalen Ramsey is that rare cornerback who can handle DeAndre Hopkins. LA's balanced offense can control clock and take advantage of a mediocre Arizona defense that has multiple defensive line injuries and is minus its star pass rusher, Chandler Jones. The Rams have owned the Cardinals beating them the past six times going 5-0-1 ATS. Arizona would be 0-4 in its last four home contests if not for a successful Hail Mary against the Bills and an overtime victory against Seattle. Under Sean McVay, the Rams have won 21 of 31 road games going 19-12 (61 percent) ATS.
12-06-20	Colts -3 v. Texans		26-20	Win	100	57 h 58 m	Show
Houston had its highlight on Thanksgiving putting the final nail on Matt Patricia's coffin. The Texans are a bad team, two levels lower than the Colts. Indy has a top-10 defense. Deshaun Watson is playing at an elite level, but he doesn't have a reliable ground game even if David Johnson returns and now he has a thin wide receiving group with Will Fuller suspended, Kenny Stills gone and Randall Cobb injured. The Colts have gotten healthier on defense. They are effective and probing rather than flashy on offense. But they have more than enough manpower to handle a Houston defense that ranks 31st in run defense and 30th in total yards. The Texans also are second-to-last in takeaways.
12-06-20	Lions v. Bears -3		34-30	Loss	-110	57 h 48 m	Show
Perception seems to be that the Lions are a live 'dog because they finally got rid of Matt Patricia and will play harder under interim coach Darrell Bevell. That remains to be seen. I never thought much of Bevell's play-calling when he was an offensive coordinator. The Bears are home, have owned the Lions and have a far superior defense. The Lions' plight is going to continue to be rough if Kenny Golladay and D'Andre Swift both remain out. I don't expect either of them to play. They are Matthew Stafford's best wide receiver and running back. Chicago has defeated Detroit five straight times, including 27-23 on the road in Week 1. Mitchell Trubisky plays great against just one opponent - this one. Trubisky has completed 67.5 percent of his throws against the Lions for 1,601 yards and 14 TD passes in six games. The Lions' defense isn't good to begin with and now they'll be minus veteran cornerback Desmond Trufant and run-stuffing nose tackle Danny Shelton. The Bears are more likely to be fired-up than the Lions. Chicago has lost five in a row, including getting buried in embarrassing fashion against the Packers in their last game. Matt Nagy ripped his team after that loss. Because their next three games are against the Texans, Vikings and Jaguars, the Bears still could get into the playoffs. So a hard effort should be forthcoming. Detroit has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times as an underdog.
11-29-20	Bears v. Packers -9		25-41	Win	100	21 h 52 m	Show
I want the Packers off a loss where they are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS under Matt Lafleur. Aaron Rodgers hasn't lost to the Bears at home when he's started and finished a game since 2015. Green Bay averages 30.8 points, third-highest in the NFL. The Bears entered their break last week averaging fewer than 16 points during their last four games. They are either last or second from the bottom in scoring, total yards and rushing yards., Chicago has a patchwork offensive line and just one weapon, Allen Robinson. The Packers can limit Robinson with shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander. Mitch Trubisky is great against the Lions. He's lousy against every other team. The Bears already have given up on Trubisky. He's back because Nick Foles is hurt and has been equally ineffective. The Bears also are 0-6 SU and ATS following a bye.
11-29-20	Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5		27-24	Win	100	17 h 47 m	Show
Given New Orleans being down Drew Brees, the Buccaneers could be the most complete team in the NFC. They have the defense to slow down the Chiefs' high-powered offense and a passing attack that can take advantage of a Kansas City secondary that in its last two games versus the Raiders and Panthers allowed 74.1 percent completions, 8.3 YPA, a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio while coming up with just two sacks in 83 dropbacks by opposing quarterbacks Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater. Tom Brady spearheads a much more dangerous passing attack than those two teams. Brady could have the top wide receiving trio in the league with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. They are getting in sync more each week. It's a bad spot, too, for the Chiefs. The Buccaneers are home with much to prove after big game home losses to the Saints and Rams. The Chiefs are in a division sandwich having just gotten satisfying revenge on the Raiders and hosting the Broncos next week.
11-29-20	Browns -7 v. Jaguars	Top	27-25	Loss	-104	14 h 44 m	Show
The Browns don't have to do much here versus such an undermanned opponent. Baker Mayfield can just hand the ball off to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, while easily picking his spots against a dead Jacksonville team that is staggering with injuries. Jacksonville gives up the second-most yards per game in the NFL and yields nearly 30 points per contest. If not for a fluke victory against the Colts at home opening week, in which they were totally outplayed statistically, the Jaguars would be winless and ranking among the worst teams of all time. They haven't won since Week 1 with six of their defeats occurring by at least eight points. And now the Jaguars have to deal with their longest injury list. Jacksonville had one decent pass rusher, Josh Allen. He's out. The Jaguars have a cluster injury problem in the secondary down their three top cornerbacks. On offense, the Jaguars will be minus their top wide receiver, D.J. Chark, plus their best lineman, guard Andrew Norwell. Jake Luton proved to be as terrible as expected. So now the Jaguars turn to their third-string QB journeyman stiff Mike Glennon. Cleveland doesn't need Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward to take advantage of Glennon's lack of downfield throwing skills and no mobility.
11-22-20	Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders	Top	35-31	Loss	-100	88 h 31 m	Show
Patrick Mahomes alone is enough to be confident in the Chiefs beating the Raiders by more than a TD. Mahomes is firmly in the MVP discussion with a 25-to-1 TD-to-interception ratio. Mahomes has accounted for 15 touchdowns in five career games against the Raiders and their defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther. The Raiders are among the bottom-four in sacks, sack ratio and quarterback hit rate. So Mahomes is going to have time to operate. If you throw out a heavy wind game against the Browns, the Raiders have given up more than 30 points per game during their last six games. But, wait, there is more. The Chiefs have monster revenge. The Raiders dealt them their lone loss. Kansas City also is off its bye. No coach is better with an extra week during the regular season than Andy Reid, who is 18-3 in this role. The Chiefs' defense has been playing better allowing 17 or fewer points in three of their last four games. The Raiders were missing three starting offensive linemen in their last game and their defense is dealing with COVID protocols with seven players affected, including safety Jonathan Abram.
11-22-20	Dolphins v. Broncos +3.5		13-20	Win	100	83 h 18 m	Show
The Dolphins are a nice story this season exceeding expectations so far with a 6-3 record. But they are not some elite team and find themselves in a tough situational spot. Miami traveled to Arizona and nipped the Cardinals two weeks ago. The Dolphins beat the Chargers at home last Sunday and now must go on another long flight. This time into high altitude and colder weather. The 3-6 Broncos actually give up fewer yards per game and average more yards per game than the Dolphins. The problem for Denver has been a league-high 21 turnovers. Protect the ball and the Broncos should win. I'm expecting Drew Lock to play, but if he doesn't I'm fine with backup Brett Rypien, who was the quarterback when Denver beat the Jets, 37-28, on Oct. 1. I understand the Dolphins aren't the Jets. But I'm fine if Rypien plays instead of Lock.
11-22-20	Eagles +3.5 v. Browns		17-22	Loss	-115	80 h 20 m	Show
As disappointing as the Eagles have been this season, they are in first place in the bogus NFC East Division. So they certainly are not raising up the white flag. I expect improvement from the Eagles now that they are finally healthy on offense. If you subtract the two heavy-wind games the Browns were involved in against the Raiders and Texas, Cleveland would be giving up 31.6 points a game. The Browns have a banged-up offensive line and right tackle Jack Conklin is dealing with COVID-19 issues. A comparison can be made because each team has played the Ravens and Steelers. The Eagles lost by nine at the Steelers after trailing by just two points with less than four minutes and they were edged by the Ravens, 30-28, after missing a two-point conversion with less than two minutes left. By contrast, the Browns were crushed 38-6 by the Ravens and blown out 38-7 by the Steelers.
11-19-20	Cardinals v. Seahawks -3	Top	21-28	Win	100	40 h 27 m	Show
The Cardinals are riding high after pulling out a 32-30 home win against the Bills this past Sunday on a 43-yard TD pass from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins with two seconds left. The Seahawks are at low ebb having lost three of their past four games, including the last two. Now, though, is the time to buy low on Seattle and fade Arizona in this spot. The Cardinals have to travel on a short week still basking in their near-miracle victory against the Bills. Arizona exerted a ton of energy in that game coming back from a 23-9 deficit midway through the third quarter. Fans won't be permitted into the stadium, but Seattle still is in a highly favorable situation not having to lose a day of practice to travel and in short revenge. The Cardinals nipped the Seahawks, 37-34, in overtime on Oct. 25. The Cardinals tied the game on a 44-yard field goal as time expired to force the OT. Russell Wilson threw three interceptions yet the Seahawks still should have won that game outgaining Arizona and controlling the clock for nearly 10 more minutes than the Cardinals. Seattle didn't have superstar safety Jamal Adams, nor pass rusher Carlos Dunlap, in that game either. The Seahawks haven't lost three straight regular season games in nine years. They have covered 68 percent of their last 51 games following a loss. The Seahawks have a history of being very tough in nationally televised games with the best record in the NFL in primetime games since Carroll took over Seattle in 2010.
11-15-20	Ravens -7 v. Patriots		17-23	Loss	-105	137 h 10 m	Show
The Patriots lack talent and there is nothing Bill Belichick can do about it. The Patriots haven't been this bad in nearly 20 years. They barely managed to beat the Jets. Before that victory, New England was averaging 12.2 points in its last four games. Cam Newton is devoid of weapons and New England's defense is worse than perceived. Washed-up Joe Flacco threw for 262 yards and 3 TD's against the Patriots this past Monday. The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL averaging 170 yards on the ground. The Patriots rank 25th in run defense. Baltimore has won its last 10 road games going 7-2-1 ATS. The Ravens, though, have never won at New England in five regular-season meetings. This is their opportunity and I look for a lot of pent-up frustration from the Ravens to be unleashed against the for-once overmatched Patriots.
11-15-20	Bengals +7.5 v. Steelers		10-36	Loss	-110	50 h 20 m	Show
Bengals plus 8 at Steelers I like the Bengals to hang within a touchdown of the Steelers whether Ben Roethlisberger plays or not. I'm locking in now because the number will shrink if Roethlisberger is not cleared to play, which would mean Mason Rudolph under center and a far more conservative Pittsburgh game plan. Rudolph is a stiff and Roethlisberger wouldn't have the benefit of any practice this week. Cincinnati gives up a lot of yardage, but their scoring defense isn't that far below average ranking 20th giving up 26.8 points per game. Cincinnati has scored 27 or more points in five of its last seven games. Expectations were set high for Joe Burrow - and he's surpassed them. I don't expect Joe Mixon back yet, but he's only had one really good game. A hidden key for the Bengals has been the tremendous kicking of veteran journeyman Randy Bullock, who is 18-for-20 in field goals and perfect on 20 extra point kicks. Only once have the Bengals lost by more than five points this season. They are 11-3 ATS the last 14 times as a road underdog.
11-15-20	Eagles -3 v. Giants	Top	17-27	Loss	-114	124 h 15 m	Show
The Eagles started to get healthier before their bye last week and now could have Miles Sanders and right tackle Lane Johnson joining left tackle Jason Peters, Dallas Goedert and Jalen Reagor, who all recently returned from injuries. Daniel Jones is 6-16 as a starter with 36 turnovers. It's not close between him and Carson Wentz, who threw 3 TD passes when the Eagles beat the Giants, 22-21, three weeks ago. That was the eighth straight time the Eagles have defeated the Giants. The short point spread does not accurately reflect how much superior the Eagles are to the Giants, whose only two victories have been against Washington.
11-12-20	Colts +1 v. Titans	Top	34-17	Win	100	18 h 31 m	Show
If you're judging this matchup just by skill position talent it's no contest. The Titans easily have the three best players in this area with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown. So why then is this game a pick'em given the Titans' skill position edge and being the home team on a short week? It's because the Colts own the far superior defense, have a better offensive line and have the advantage on special teams. These edges outweigh the Titans' skill position players and put me on the Colts. Tremendous credit goes to the Colts for building a defense that ranks No. 1 in total yards giving up 290 yards per game and the third-fewest points at 20 per game. Indy also ranks No. 3 in run defense. Henry hasn't faced the Colts since they upgraded an already good defensive line with DeForest Buckner. I also rate Darius Leonard as the best linebacker in the league. Tannehill is better than Philip Rivers, but he's not an elite quarterback and he won't be that effective with play-action if Henry isn't churning out yards. The Bears held the Titans to 4.1 yards per play last Sunday. The Colts' defense is rated higher and their offense is better than the Bears. Indy's run defense surrenders just 3.3 yards per carry. The Titans are without their best offensive lineman, injured left tackle Taylor Lewan. Guard Rodger Saffold might be Tennessee's second-best offensive lineman and he's questionable with a shoulder injury. The Colts' offense doesn't scare anyone with Philip Rivers in his NFL dotage. But Indy has produced points when going against non-elite defense such as the Titans averaging 34 points against the Lions, Bengals, Jets and Vikings. Rivers is playing better, producing two of his three highest passer ratings during the past three games with six TD passes during this span. T.Y. Hilton, the Colts' top wide receiver, is expected to play. The Titans rank 25th defensively giving up more than 100 yards per game than Indianapolis. Tennessee allows opponents to convert on 55.4 percent of their third downs, which is the worst figure in the NFL. That mark was even higher, but the Titans held the woeful Bears offense to 2-of-15 on third down. Then there's the kicking game. It favors Indy. Colts rookie Rodrigo Blankenship has come through making 17 of 19 field goals. By contrast, Titans place-kicker Stephen Gostkowski has the worst mark in the league for field goal accuracy making just 11 of 18. Field position always is important and the Titans won't have their All-Pro punter Brett Kern. He missed his first game since 2009 last week with a wrist injury, ending a string of 180 straight games. Kern has the seventh-highest punting average in the league. Kern also is the Titans' holder on extra points and field goals. Ryan Allen replaced Kern against the Bears and did an excellent job punting. But can he do it again? He's not a sure, reliable entity like Kern.
11-09-20	Patriots v. Jets +10	Top	30-27	Win	100	10 h 45 m	Show
At double-digits, I'm involved with the Jets. And, yes, my hand is firmly holding my nose. The handicap is completely anti-New England rather than pro Jets in any way although the Jets certainly won't lack motivation. This is the rare national stage for them. They are home, hate the Patriots and do not want to become the first Jets team in team history to open 0-9. The line has been adjusted upward because Joe Flacco is going to start instead of Sam Darnold. Flacco has been washed up for years. But he's a veteran and Darnold hasn't played well. So there's really not that much of a difference. Darnold has been spooked by the Patriots and Bill Belichick so I would have had little confidence in him. Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots' best defensive back, is out with a knee injury. Forget the past two decades. New England is terrible. The Patriots have worse skill position talent than even the Jets. New England ranks 29th in scoring and 30th in total yards. The Patriots are averaging 12.2 points in their last four games. They could have kicking problems, too, as Nick Fok is questionable with a back injury. If Folk can't kick, rookie Justin Rohrwasser would be promoted from the practice squad. The Patriots' puny offense certainly can't withstand any missed field goals. The Patriots shouldn't be laying double-digits to any team - even to the Jets.
11-08-20	Saints v. Bucs -4.5		38-3	Loss	-109	63 h 54 m	Show
The records may not show it, but there's been a turnaround since the Saints beat the Buccaneers opening week. Tampa Bay is now the superior team - and not because it is playing at home. The Buccaneers are a rising power with an elite defense and an offense that could come fully together now that all the pieces are healthy and Antonio Brown has been added. Tampa Bay had the best run defense last year and the Bucs are No. 1 in stopping the run this season overcoming the loss of nose tackle Vita Vea. Tampa Bay is 6-2 outscoring its foes by 82 points. The Saints are a lucky 5-2 outscoring their opponents by merely nine points. New Orleans has won its last four games by a combined margin of 15 points with two overtime victories. The Saints have given up the second-most TD passes in the league. Tom Brady has the weapons to exploit that.
11-05-20	Packers -7 v. 49ers	Top	34-17	Win	100	19 h 5 m	Show
The combination of injuries and COVID have destroyed the 49ers for much of the season. This situation is at its worst for the 49ers in this Thursday game. Not only do the 49ers have a cluster injury problem in their defensive line and injuries in their secondary, but their offense is now devastated, too. San Francisco has to play this game minus starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo, star tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams plus be without its top running back, Raheem Mostert, and its three top wide receivers! Talk about a depleted roster. Green Bay is likely down its three best running backs as Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon are out and I don't expect Aaron Jones to play either. But Aaron Rodgers can overcome this because the Packers have a diverse offense with many short passing options. The Packers are averaging 31.3 points, third-best in the NFL. 49ers QB Nick Mullens operating an offense devoid of weapons will not be able to match Rodgers.
11-01-20	Cowboys v. Eagles -8.5		9-23	Win	100	60 h 36 m	Show
A third-string offensive line and third-string QB Ben DiNucci makes all of the Cowboys' fantastic skill position weapons impotent with the possible exception of rookie CeeDee Lamb. The Eagles' defense is strong enough to take advantage of the Cowboys' extensive injuries. Carson Wentz doesn't need his top two tight ends nor DeSean Jackson to put up a huge number on the Cowboys' hapless defense that gives up the most points per game in the league and ranks last in run defense. A maximum effort should be forthcoming from the Eagles against this hated division rival knowing their bye comes up next week.
11-01-20	Titans -4 v. Bengals		20-31	Loss	-125	150 h 41 m	Show
Zac Taylor has been on the job in Cincinnati for nearly 1 1/2 years. So far the Bengals have three victories to show for it. They also are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times as home 'dogs. Taylor has a nice building block in rookie franchise QB Joe Burrow. But right now that's about all the Bengals have. And it's not nearly enough for them to hang with the Titans. Tennessee is averaging nearly 35 points during its last five games. Derrick Henry led the NFL in rushing last year and he ranks first this season by a wide margin. Ryan Tannehill has become a top-10 QB and has a healthy set of receivers headed by A.J. Brown. The Titans are going to breeze past a Bengals defense that has below par linebackers and multiple injuries both in the defensive front and secondary. Veteran defensive end Geno Atkins hasn't been quiet in his criticism of the Bengals coaching. Cincinnati surrendered 20 fourth-quarter points to the Browns this past Sunday despite Cleveland being minus Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr. The Bengals finished their game against Cleveland minus three starting offensive linemen. They also aren't likely to have RB Joe Mixon back either. The Titans are one of the most opportunistic teams in the NFL with a plus nine turnover margin.
11-01-20	Colts -2.5 v. Lions		41-21	Win	100	84 h 37 m	Show
Simply put, the Colts know how to win. The Lions don't. Indy is coming off its bye. The Colts are much better coached than the Lions and own a far superior defense ranking in the top four in many of the major categories. The Colts are fresh and should control the trenches. The Lions rank 26th in run defense. Jonathan Taylor is lined up for success, which in turn takes the pressure off Philip Rivers. The expected return of superstar linebacker Darius Leonard makes the Colts' defense even stronger. Opposing QB's have just a 7-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio versus the Colts. The Lions have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been underdogs.
11-01-20	Vikings v. Packers -6.5	Top	28-22	Loss	-112	150 h 60 m	Show
The Packers crushed the Vikings, 43-34, on the road opening week. The game wasn't nearly as close as the final score. The Packers led 29-10 in the fourth quarter and went on cruise control. Green Bay had 522 total yards and owned the ball 41:16-18:44. The Vikings couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers and Davonte Adams. Nothing has changed from that except the Packers have proven they are indeed for real while the Vikings have gone into rebuild mode with a 1-5 record. Minnesota signaled its intentions to begin a rebuild by recently trading stud defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue knowing Dannielle Hunter was not going to return this season. Rodgers can attack a youthful Vikings secondary that ranks among the bottom-four while having a clean pocket. Green Bay has the fewest turnovers in the league with only two. Kirk Cousins, on the other hand, is on pace to throw 27 interceptions. The Packers are 8-0 in NFC North Division games under Matt LaFleur. The line has dropped due to Green Bay injuries. But left tackle David Bakhitari is expected to play and the Packers have a deep roster with one of the best backup RB's in Jamaal Williams.
10-25-20	Packers -3 v. Texans		35-20	Win	100	120 h 57 m	Show
A terrible defense and bad coaching have done in the Texans. Their season, for all practical purposes, was to put to rest when they blew a late lead against the Titans this past Sunday. That loss put the Texans at 1-5 and crushed what little morale they had picked up when Bill O'Brien was fired. Opposing QB's are completing 70 percent of their throws versus the Texans for 13 touchdowns and just one interception. Houston also ranks last in run defense. Look for the Packers to come back strong after being embarrassed by the Buccaneers this past Sunday. Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davonte Adams should produce huge numbers. Despite their loss to Tampa Bay, the Packers have been strong on the road under Matt LaFleur going 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS. Green Bay also has not lost two consecutive games under LaFleur. The Texans have failed to cover the past six times they've been underdogs.
10-25-20	Panthers +7.5 v. Saints		24-27	Win	100	8 h 9 m	Show
The Saints are an overrated bunch just 2-2 in their last four games and lucky not to be 1-3 after pulling off an improbable overtime home win against the Chargers in their last game. New Orleans hasn't fared well following its bye the past couple of seasons and will be without its two top wideouts, including superstar Michael Thomas. The Panthers have shown defensive improvement and a respectable balanced offense despite not having Christian McCaffrey. Teddy Bridgewater is a mind-boggling 14-2 ATS as a road underdog in his NFL starting career.
10-19-20	Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5	Top	38-10	Loss	-109	85 h 22 m	Show
If Dak Prescott didn't get hurt, Dallas would be at least a field goal favorite. Now they are home underdogs despite the Cardinals not playing that well and being on the road for a third straight game. The Cowboys, as it turned out, made a shrewd move signing Andy Dalton. He is a decent QB when surrounded with weapons. Dalton certainly has them here with arguably the best running back in the NFL, Ezekiel Elliott, and the top wide receiving trio in the league with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb. They could torch a Cardinals secondary whose cornerbacks have been struggling. Dallas is without both of its starting offensive tackles. The Cardinals, though, suffered a major loss themselves when star pass rusher Chandler Jones was lost for the season. They don't have anyone who can rush the passer nearly as well as Jones. The Cardinals have received very little from heralded first-round draft pick Isaiah Simmons. He's been non-existent up to this point. Even with Jones, the Cardinals ranked in the bottom-five in pressuring the quarterback. I'm expecting the Cowboys to be super up for this Monday night home game wanting to show the nation they can win in their first full game without Prescott. Dalton will have had a full week of practice working with the first unit. He should be up for the challenge against a mediocre defense that just lost their best player. The Cardinals are 1-2 in their last three games. Their only win during this span was against the Jets. Their losses came to the Lions and Panthers. Arizona is 3-2 on the season. The three opponents they've defeated have a combined mark of 3-12.
10-18-20	Bengals +9.5 v. Colts		27-31	Win	100	55 h 1 m	Show
The Bengals are 10-4 ATS as road 'dogs and have shown marked improvement this season. Joe Burrow is living up to his hype and status as the No. 1 overall draft pick. He has solid skill position help and Cincinnati's offensive line is getting better. The Colts defense surrendered 32 points to the Browns last week despite Baker Mayfield playing at less than 100 percent and Cleveland missing Nick Chubb. Indy's defense isn't the same without star linebacker Darius Leonard, who is doubtful to play here. Cincinnati's defense is another facet that has improved. The Bengals sunk a lot of money into upgrading their defense. They finally got back their best defensive lineman, Geno Atkins, last week. The Colts don't have the offense to lay this big of a number. The Colts rank second-to-last in yards per rush at 3.6 per carry. Yet the Colts have to remain a ground-based, two-wide receiver, two-tight end offense because of wide receiver injuries and the steep decline of Philip Rivers, who has become one of the least effective starting QB's in the league.
10-18-20	Ravens -7.5 v. Eagles		30-28	Loss	-110	55 h 39 m	Show
The Eagles winning the Super Bowl three years ago has become a distant memory. The reality is they have an extremely banged-up offensive line, depleted receiving corps and a defense that gives up the 10th-most points a game with a leaky secondary that would be made worse if Darius Slay can't play due to a concussion. The Ravens don't have a dominant pass rusher. But their defense is opportunistic and well-coached. Baltimore ranks second in the NFL with 10 takeaways. The Ravens will try to exploit the Eagles' offensive line, which will be down their three best linemen if Lane Johnson can't play, with an assorted array of blizes and schemes. Carson Wentz has already been sacked 19 times and thrown nine interceptions. I see Baltimore holding all the advantages here. The Eagles won't even hold much off a home field edge with just 7,500 fans allowed into Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday.
10-18-20	Texans +4 v. Titans		36-42	Loss	-110	12 h 51 m	Show
The Texans are on the upswing following a much needed coaching change going from toxic Bill O'Brien to popular Romeo Crennel. The Texans responded to the move by getting their first victory, rolling past Jacksonville by 16 points last week. Houston played the hardest September schedule of any team. But now that portion of the schedule is finished and the Texans have their confidence and morale up. The Texans draw Tennessee in a vulnerable spot. The shorthanded Titans are fat and happy after rolling past the Bills, 42-16, this past Tuesday. So this is a very short week for Tennessee, which isn't up to full strength and is dealing with the distraction about its supposed lack of adherence to pandemic protocols. The Titans are 4-0, but their first three victories came by a combined six points all stemming from game-winning field goals that occurred with less than two minutes left. Tennessee is a more well-rounded team than Houston. But the Texans have the better quarterback and the two best defensive players in J.J. Watt and linebacker Zach Cunningham. If the Texans are going to get back into the AFC South Division race they need to win this game. They are the team with the greater urgency.
10-11-20	Colts v. Browns +1.5		23-32	Win	100	57 h 47 m	Show
Indy ranks first defensively. But I'm not buying that the Colts have the best defense, especially missing their top defensive player, injured linebacker Darius Leonard. The Colts have faced the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets and Bears. The Browns are the most balanced offense they've gone against. The Browns have produced 34 or more points each of the last three weeks. Kareem Hunt is a capable bellcow running back with Nick Chubb injured. Baker Mayfield is in a better system with better coaching. Odell Beckham Jr. is flashing his immense talents again. Indy can't match Cleveland's firepower. The Browns have held their opponents to 3.5 yard per rush, which ranks fifth-best. The Browns lead the NFL with 11 takeaways. Their banged-up secondary is getting healthier. So this is a tough matchup for a conservative Colts offense that relies on rookie RB Jonathan Taylor and over-the-hill Philip Rivers to play game-manager.
10-11-20	Bengals +13 v. Ravens		3-27	Loss	-110	53 h 27 m	Show
The Ravens aren't close to where they want to be while the Bengals are an improved bunch. Joe Burrow just hasn't been the first rookie QB to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games. He's done much more giving the Bengals hope and confidence. Baltimore ranks just 11th in offensive efficiency. The Ravens' offensive line is playing below their level and Lamar Jackson is off to a slow start. He might not be 100 percent healthy either. The Ravens had fewer first downs and lost the time of possession against lowly Washington last Sunday. Cincinnati has played the Ravens tough covering six of the past seven meetings. Baltimore hasn't been good as home chalk under John Harbaugh going 6-12 ATS the past 18 times as a home favorite.
10-11-20	Cardinals -7 v. Jets		30-10	Win	100	53 h 25 m	Show
The Cardinals have far more talent than the Jets. Arizona, though, has underachieved in its last two games losing to the Lions and Panthers on the road. I see the Cardinals rebounding against a perfect patsy here. The winless Jets have been outscored by 66 points. That's the worst point differential in the league. The Giants are a distant second at minus 49. The Jets are at this low mark with Sam Darnold at QB, too. Darnold has regressed, but he's still far better than backup Joe Flacco, who will replace the injured Darnold in this game. The Jets also are likely to be missing their injured star rookie offensive left tackle Mekhi Becton. Chandler Jones should be in for a monster game if Becton can't go. The Jets' offense has produced just 5 TD's in four games. Morale is low with the Jets. I get the impression they don't care if they win or lose because many of their players dislike coach Adam Gase.
10-11-20	Eagles v. Steelers -7		29-38	Win	100	53 h 24 m	Show
The Steelers are fresh after getting an unexpected bye. Before their bye they led the NFL in sacks. They average five sacks a game. Carson Wentz isn't having a good season. He's been sunk by multiple injuries in Philly's offensive line and receiving corps. Because of that this is a bad matchup for the Eagles. The Steelers blitz from all angles. The Eagles' offensive line already is down Brandon Brooks and Jason Peters and now Lane Johnson is hurting. Ben Roethlisberger has shown he's fine with 7 TD passes in three games and just one interception. A healthy James Conner makes a difference, too, for the Steelers' offense. Pittsburgh is traditionally strong in October under Mike Tomlin going 20-7-1 ATS.
10-04-20	Bills -2.5 v. Raiders	Top	30-23	Win	100	125 h 14 m	Show
Only Kansas City and Baltimore are better AFC teams than Buffalo. The Bills are several levels higher than the Raiders especially with Las Vegas dealing with a cluster injury problem at wide receiver and in its offensive line. The spread is short because the Bills are traveling cross-country fresh off a victory while drawing the Raiders in an angry mood following their loss to the Patriots. Don't overthink these situational factors, though. Buffalo is far better than Las Vegas on both sides of the ball with Josh Allen developing into an elite force in this his third season. Allen already has set a Buffalo team record by accounting for a dozen TD's through three games. The Bills are healthy again at linebacker. Their defensive line has tremendous depth and their secondary is very good. Derek Carr could be down two starting offensive linemen and three wide receivers. Buffalo is giving up just 17.2 points in its last 10 away matchups. The Bills also have covered 78 percent of their past 11 road contests.
10-04-20	Seahawks v. Dolphins +7		31-23	Loss	-120	123 h 57 m	Show
Russell Wilson is covering up a lot of flaws for Seattle such as a mediocre defense that doesn't apply much quarterback heat and will be without star safety Jamal Adams. This is a terrible spot for the Seahawks - a cross-country trip, early start time and brutal South Florida humidity. Seattle is fat and happy off back-to-back marquee home victories against the Patriots and Cowboys in see-saw type games. Miami, on the other hand, is on extended rest having played Thursday night. When Ryan Fitzpatrick is hot the Dolphins are competitive. And Fitzpatrick is playing well. The Dolphins are improved in the second year of their rebuild under Brian Flores.
10-04-20	Ravens -14 v. Washington Football Team		31-17	Push	0	36 h 43 m	Show
The Ravens are in a foul mood after being embarrassed at home by the Chiefs this past Monday night. I can easily envision the Ravens running overmatched Washington into the ground. Lamar Jackson needs to re-establish his MVP credentials. Washington had one thing going - a strong defensive line. Now that's been sabotaged with Chase Young out with a groin injury and underrated Matt Ioannidis out for the season. I'm against tanking. But if any team should consider tanking it would be Washington. Dwayne Haskins is the worst starting QB in the NFL - and it's not even close. Washington's morale had to take a hit against Cleveland last week. Washington was hanging in on pace to cover a touchdown spread, if not pull an outright upset, until Haskins threw a brutal interception that turned the game around. This is hardly a road trip for Baltimore, just around 35 miles to Washington. No fans in the stands either so Washington doesn't really have a home field advantage.
10-04-20	Chargers v. Bucs -6.5		31-38	Win	100	36 h 42 m	Show
The left side of the Chargers' offensive line consisting of tackle Sam Tevi and guard Forrest Lamp is one of the worst in the NFL. Now, coupled with starting center Mike Pouncey and the right side of the offensive line with guard Trai Turner and tackle Bryan Bulaga being out, I have to lay the touchdown with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay's Todd Bowles is one of the better defensive coordinators in the NFL. He has a lot to work with here. The Buccaneers are a top run-stop unit and they're likely to get a lot of sacks against pocket passer rookie Justin Herbert. The Buccaneers' offense should improve as the season progresses. It has enough weapons for Tom Brady to safely put up enough points to cover this number. The Chargers have a couple of key defensive injuries and are traveling cross country. An early start time for them certainly is not a plus either.
10-01-20	Broncos +2 v. Jets	Top	37-28	Win	100	16 h 59 m	Show
Welcome to the Toilet Bowl. There are three AFC teams who are 0-3. These are two of them. The third is the Texans, who have played at the Chiefs, Ravens and at the Steelers. There has been drastic line movement in this matchup with the Jets now the favorite. Much of this line change is due to the Broncos switching quarterbacks going from backup Jeff Driskel to third-stringer Brett Rypien with Drew Lock out. I actually prefer Rypien over Driskel, who is 1-8 as an NFL starter. Denver is making the long journey to the East Coast. But much of this disadvantage is off-set by this being a night game and fans not being allowed in the stands at MetLife Field. The Jets have lost by a combined 57 points, an average of 19 points a game. They've lost to the Bills, battered 49ers and Colts. Denver has two close losses, falling to the Titans by two and to the Steelers on the road by five points. Tennessee and Pittsburgh are each 3-0. Even with the Broncos going with a reserve QB, I still rate them superior to the Jets. Denver has the best pass rusher, Bradley Chubb, and more weapons than the Jets with Melvin Gordon, Noah Fant and Jerry Jeudy. The Broncos also might get back talented all-purpose back Phillip Lindsay. Sam Darnold has regressed. Perhaps he's seeing ghosts again confused by Adam Gase's complex offense. Gase has a history of getting underachieving performances from players who have thrived when they have gotten away from him. Ryan Tannehill and Kenyan Drake are two prime examples. Darnold might fall into that category, too. There's an intangible element here. Speculation is Gase could get fired if the Jets lose this game. Gase is not popular with some of his players. This leaves you to wonder if some Jets are secretly hoping they lose this game in the hopes Gase gets canned? If that were to happen, an interim Jets coach would have 10 days to get ready for the next game so the timing would be good.
09-27-20	Packers v. Saints -3		37-30	Loss	-110	82 h 52 m	Show
Green Bay enters New Orleans puffed up with a 2-0 mark. They're going to draw an angry Saints squad that was embarrassed losing to the Raiders this past Monday night. The Packers' offensive line was able to control Detroit's weak defensive line and a much-regressed Vikings defense line devoid of injured Danielle Hunter. Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones took it from there being instrumental in Green Bay producing 85 points and 1,010 yards of offense in its first two games. Green Bay, however, won't have it so easy against a good and deep Saints' defensive line. The Saints are healthy defensively compared to the Lions and Vikings. Once you get past Jones and Davante Adams, the Packers are shallow at the skill position spots and tight end without any consistent playmakers. The Packers were able to cover up their defensive deficiencies because their offense was humming. That won't be the case here. Even without Michael Thomas, the Saints have a balanced attack. As good as Jones is, he's trumped by Alvin Kamara. Given the matchup and situation, the Saints are a value at minus just a field goal.
09-27-20	Bucs -6 v. Broncos		28-10	Win	100	78 h 23 m	Show
Part of the Broncos historically being tough at home is their edge playing at Mile High Stadium. But only 5,700 fans will be allowed to attend, which is 7.5 percent capacity. So the Broncos' home field advantage is reduced. That makes the Buccaneers even more attractive because matchup-wise they should dominate. Denver's defense is down due to injuries to Von Miller and cornerback A.J. Bouye. The Broncos have just two sacks on 86 dropbacks having faced Ryan Tannehill and Ben Roethlisberger. Tom Brady has better weapons than those two quarterbacks especially with Chris Godwin back healthy and Leonard Fournette giving Tampa Bay its best running back in several years. The Broncos did not do a good job in backing up Drew Lock, who is out with a rotator cuff strain. Jeff Driskel is a career backup and not a very good one. He's inaccurate and takes too many sacks. Denver also is without its best wideout, Courtland Sutton, and all-purpose back, Phillip Lindsay. The Buccaneers have a stout defense. They led the NFL in rush defense last season and have the pass rushers to take full advantage of Driskel's inadequacies.
09-27-20	49ers v. Giants +4		36-9	Loss	-115	55 h 45 m	Show
The 49ers got away with being road chalk of more than a field goal last Sunday because they were playing the Jets. The Giants aren't very good either, but they are not the Jets. They are a level higher. I don't see San Francisco escaping MetLife Stadium, a place it hates to play, with back-to-back road victories. The 49ers are just too banged-up. Yes, the Giants are down Saquan Barkley and Sterling Shepard. Barkley is their best player. Still, the Giants' injuries don't compare to how many key players are out for the 49ers. Let's start with defense where both the 49ers' line and secondary are heavily reduced with Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford and Richard Sherman all out. Bosa and Ford are the team's best pass rushers. Sherman is their best cornerback and a team leader. That's just on defense. Now go to offense where the 49ers are without their starting center, two best running backs, top wide receiver and oh yes, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Kyle Shanahan can game plan all he wants, but he doesn't have the pieces to formulate anything other than a conservative just-try-to-get-alive-out-of-here mentality. It's not just physical with the 49ers. They are mentally not right about playing at this stadium believing the carpet helped cause some of their many injuries. The Giants are good enough to take advantage. They nearly upset the Bears on the road last week after losing Barkley early in the game. Daniel Jones has upside and other decent wide receivers besides Shepard. The Giants' defense also has made strides. At 0-2, the Giants are in must-win mode. The 49ers are going to take New York's best punch. I don't see them being able to withstand it in their crippled situation.
09-27-20	Washington Football Team +7.5 v. Browns		20-34	Loss	-117	34 h 15 m	Show
Now that the line has gotten past a touchdown, I'm going to get involved with Washington. There are a number of below-the-surface factors that point to Washington keeping this game close. Washington is better coached this season, hasn't shown any quit and ranks first in the league in sacks. Washington also is No. 1 in Football Outsiders' DVOA defensive ranking, a metric that measures a team's production versus league average. Washington's offense is learning a new system. Improvement should come each week. The Browns get back cornerback Kevin Johnson and linebacker Mack Wilson. However, they will be without cornerback Greedy Williams, Olivier Vernon,, their second-best pass rusher, and star cornerback Denzel Ward is questionable after injuring a groin muscle in practice. Terry McLaurin is Washington's one dangerous playmaker. He could be set up for success if Ward can't go. Washington knows its offensive limitations. So they've centered their attack around throwing short passes to their running backs. This could work against Cleveland, which remains thin in the secondary. The Browns have not played well on special teams. They have one of the more worrisome kicking situations. Bottom line is the Browns, who are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 home games, just aren't a strong enough overall team to lay this many points against a feisty underdog.
09-27-20	Raiders v. Patriots -6	Top	20-36	Win	100	76 h 53 m	Show
Just a terrible spot for Las Vegas. The Raiders are traveling cross-country off a monster home upset win against the Saints this past Monday night. The Patriots may have the best secondary in football. The Patriots also have limited their opponents to the third-fewest snaps. Derek Carr has gone against Bill Belichick twice. Carr has completed less than 60 percent of his throws, has fewer than a 5.0 YPA and has a 1-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those two combined games. The Raiders also could be without both of their starting offensive tackles. Richie Incognito is out with an Achilles injury and Trent Brown is dealing with a calf injury. Cam Newton appears to be a perfect fit for New England. He looked great against Seattle last week throwing for 444 yards and three TD's. Newton remains a huge running threat. The Raiders are giving up 27 points a game. Las Vegas is catching New England off a loss. The Patriots have covered 70 percent of their last 60 games following a defeat.
09-20-20	Patriots +4 v. Seahawks		30-35	Loss	-108	35 h 45 m	Show
Seattle is not an elite team. The Seahawks are a borderline playoff team that can be beat in the trenches. Their sack rate ranked among the bottom three last year. The Seahawks, though, have three things going for them - a tremendous home field, excellent coaching and Russell Wilson. All of those huge Seattle pluses are negated here. There are not going to be any fans at CenturyLink Field. It's the first time that's happened for Seattle players and it's going to feel extremely weird and strange to them. Pete Carroll is that rare coach who can coach players up. He's good, but he's trumped by Bill Belichick, the best in the business. The Patriots, by the way, have covered 69 percent of the time the past 52 times they've been an underdog. Still want to lay points against Belichick? Wilson goes from facing Atlanta's weak secondary to New England's defensive backfield, which is the deepest and best in the NFL. Stephon Gilmore can completely take away DK Metcalf. As good as Wilson is, he's not going to light up the Patriots' secondary like he did the hapless Falcons. The Patriots are the best at adapting to what they have. Their receiving corps is way down this season. So Belichick and ace play-caller Josh McDaniels have gone to a ground-oriented attack revolving around Cam Newton, one of the best running quarterbacks in the league. Jamal Adams is the only Seattle defender who can match Newton's athleticism. Adams upgrades Seattle's secondary. The Seahawks, however, are just average defensively. They have been that way for the past three years. Even with Adams, the Seahawks' secondary is nowhere the caliber it was when their Legion of Boom was intact.
09-20-20	Chiefs -8.5 v. Chargers	Top	23-20	Loss	-106	86 h 27 m	Show
The Chiefs came on to capture the Super Bowl last season. They are even better this year. Their defense has been solid since the middle of last season and the offense is even scarier with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire being an upgrade on their previous running backs. He's just one of two new players to Kansas City's formidable starting lineup. Having lineup and coaching continuity is vital this season. The Chiefs have that. The Chargers hold little home field advantage. Their offensive line is banged-up and quarterback Tyrod Taylor can't keep up with Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers have little back-door cover capability if falling behind by double-digits. The Chargers' O-line already is banged-up missing two starters last Sunday. Kansas City has the pass rushers with Chris Jones and Frank Clark to take advantage. The Chiefs put up 34 points on the Texans last Thursday. Kansas City's offense hasn't even rounded into top shape yet. The Chargers have a better defense than Houston, but losing star safety Derwin James hurts them. The Chiefs have dominated the Chargers beating them 11 of the last 12 times. Kansas City is just on a great point spread roll period going 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games. I'm not going to overthink this matchup. I'm just going to roll with the Chiefs.
09-20-20	Panthers v. Bucs -9		17-31	Win	100	83 h 59 m	Show
The Buccaneers have the skill position pieces to bury a terrible Carolina defense. The Panthers lost their No. 1 cornerback James Bradberry in the offseason and their projected No. 2 cornerback, Elie Apple, is on IR. Carolina also was without cornerback Donte Jackson opening week. The Panthers are left with an inexperienced, makeshift secondary that includes special teams player Troy Pride at corner. Savvy Tom Brady should pick apart this weak defensive backfield especially since he'll likely have plenty of time to throw. Carolina did not even get a quarterback hit on Derek Carr in surrendering 34 points to the Raiders last week. The Raiders hadn't scored that many points in two years. While the Panthers have the worst defense in the league, the Buccaneers have one of the best. Tampa Bay ranked No. 1 in stopping the run last season. That's extremely bad news for the Panthers, who heavily rely on running back Christian McCaffrey. Bruce Arians was not happy with the play of Brady, offensive left tackle Donovan Smith and his special teams. I expect those areas will be cleaned up in what shapes up to be a Tampa Bay kill spot.
09-20-20	Giants +5.5 v. Bears		13-17	Win	100	31 h 28 m	Show
The Bears haven't won their first two games of the season in seven years. They were lucky to get past the Lions opening week rallying from a 23-6 deficit. The Bears launched their comeback after the Lions' top three cornerbacks all went out of the game with injuries. I remain unimpressed with Mitchell Trubisky. He only plays well against the Lions and he stunk for three quarters. The Giants' defense has improved especially in the defensive line. The Lions bashed the Bears for 151 yards rushing. So Saquon Barkley should be in for a big game. The Bears are missing run-stuffing nose tackle Eddie Goldman, who opted out of the season, and their best pass rushers (Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn) are both banged-up. Daniel Jones set a rookie record with 18 touchdowns on the road last season. The Giants are expected to get back Golden Tate, too. The Giants have been excellent as road 'dogs covering 10 of the last 12 times in that role. The Bears have been one of the poorer point spread teams going 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games.
09-17-20	Bengals +6 v. Browns	Top	30-35	Win	100	43 h 16 m	Show
Normally it's a huge disadvantage to be the road team for a Thursday game. But Cleveland's home edges are reduced. There won't be close to 70,000 screaming Browns fans at FirstEnergy Stadium. Instead seating capacity will be limited to 6,000. The Bengals know the Browns well being heated division rivals. Cincinnati also has coaching continuity. This is something the Browns don't have with first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski and a new offensive system. The Bengals displayed promise and hope in their 16-13 opening week loss to the Chargers. They led the Chargers in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati was done in by poor place-kicking. That game should have at least reached overtime. The Browns, though, also are dealing with kicking woes bringing in Cody Parkey to replace Austin Seibert, who the Bengals promptly picked up maybe to pick up some secrets about the Browns. Cleveland is likely to run the ball a lot at the Bengals. The Browns weren't able to pound away opening week because they fell too far behind the Ravens. Getting smashed by Baltimore, 38-6, surely does not help the Browns' fragile morale. The Bengals should be able to throw effectively on the Browns, who are without active linebacker Mack Wilson and already have a depleted secondary down three projected starters. Safety Grant Delpit is out for the season, while cornerbacks Kevin Johnson and Greedy Williams didn't play in Week 1 and aren't likely to be ready here during this short turnaround. The Browns probably are going to be forced to use special teams player Tavierre Thomas as a slot cornerback. Thomas played just three defensive snaps last season and 28 defensive snaps this past Sunday. The Bengals have a deep wide receiving group with A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, John Ross and Auden Tate. Joe Burrow is at his best operating a spread-type offense, which the Bengals are smart enough to employ. Burrow can negate Myles Garrett and Cleveland's other pass rushers by effectively throwing short passes and using top-10 running back Joe Mixon on the ground. Cincinnati has covered nine of the last 11 in this series and also is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times as a road 'dog. The Browns aren' good enough, nor trustworthy enough, to lay nearly a touchdown against a much-improved division foe.
09-13-20	Cowboys v. Rams +3	Top	17-20	Win	100	108 h 19 m	Show
The public appeal of the Cowboys and the market being down on the Rams after last season's disappointment have produced a mispriced line here. The Rams should not be a field goal home 'dog to Dallas. Although there will be no fans in the stand, the Rams have extra motivation for a 44-21 embarrassing loss they suffered to the Cowboys last season and this being the first game at their new SoFi Stadium. Jared Goff is close to an elite quarterback - when he's playing at home where he has a 31-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past two seasons compared to a 22-to-17 ratio on the road during this time span. Goff is a pocket passer. The Cowboys don't have their full complement of star pass rushers yet. Dallas' secondary is the most vulnerable part of its defense. Dallas has a high-powered attack. However, the Cowboys' offense may need time to get into gear. Mike McCarthy didn't coach last year. He had a shortened offseason and no preseason to to implement his style. The Cowboys are down two of their offensive linemen from a year ago being minus center Travis Frederick and right tackle La'el Collins. Then there is the Cowboys record as a road favorite. It's not good. Dallas lost straight-up laying points on the road last season to the Eagles, Bears, Jets and Saints, who were using Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback.
09-13-20	Bucs +3.5 v. Saints		23-34	Loss	-104	104 h 16 m	Show
No team improved themselves more in the offseason than the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay went 7-9 last season, but two of those losses occurred in overtime and three other defeats were by four points or fewer. Now the Bucs have increased their respect level by adding Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Brady is going to produce points with receiving stars Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to go with a trio of very good tight ends - Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. Tampa Bay's offense can trade points with Drew Brees. While Brady received all the off-season attention, the Bucs maintained their underrated defensive front of Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. The Bucs ranked No. 1 in run defense last season and Barrett led the NFL in sacks. The Saints have a losing record in season-openers during Sean Payton's 14 years. They are 1-5 during their past six opening games and 0-10 ATS during the first two weeks of the season in the past five years.
09-13-20	Cardinals +7.5 v. 49ers		24-20	Win	100	104 h 5 m	Show
There will be times to back the 49ers this season. This isn't one of them. Not with all the players the 49ers may not have. They could be the most banged-up team in the NFL right now. The Cardinals were undervalued by the oddsmaker last season when they went 9-5-2 ATS and they are at the start of this season with this large of a spread. Kyler Murray displayed great potential last year. He'll make a jump in this his second season surrounded by stronger weapons, including top-five wideout DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona also looks much improved defensively. If you discount a meaningless 49ers defensive touchdown on the final play of the game, the Cardinals lost to San Francisco by a combined seven points last season, an average loss of 3.5 points. The 49ers are weaker this season and the Cardinals are stronger. These teams are familiar with each other. It can't be overlooked either that division 'dogs have covered 81 percent on opening week since 2014, a sampling of 27 games.
09-13-20	Colts v. Jaguars +9.5		20-27	Win	100	100 h 27 m	Show
You have to go back to 2006 to find the last time the Colts won a road opener. The Colts have had problems playing in Jacksonville's humidity losing during their past three visits by an average margin of 14.6 points. Philip Rivers is learning a new system. He's played his entire 14-year career with the Chargers. Rivers clearly is well past his prime. The Colts brought in Rivers figuring he would be an upgrade on Jacoby Brisset. They both had the exact same low passer rating, though, last season. Jacksonville's secondary is gutted, but its defensive front seven is respectable. Josh Allen is the best pass rusher on the field. The Jaguars have youthful talent on offense. These guys are hungry to make their mark. Maybe later in the season, the Jaguars might begin tanking. But not now. This is going to be very tough for the Colts to win their first Game 1 game in six years. Much tougher than the marketplace thinks.
01-04-20	Titans v. Patriots -4.5	Top	20-13	Loss	-110	28 h 26 m	Show
So what did the Patriots' shocking home loss to the Dolphins in Week 17 mean besides hosting a wild-card game instead of getting a bye? It means line value on New England as I consider this number too short. Look for Tom Brady to step up as the weaknesses on Tennessee's defense - vulnerable to short passes and a banged-up secondary that ranks 24th in pass defense and 27th in quarterback hit rate - suit his strengths and that of the Patriots. Brady can still pick apart defenses that are vulnerable to short passes, which the Titans are. Sony Michel is running better and Julian Edelman is healthier than he has been giving Brady his security blanket. New England has much the superior defense. The Patriots surrendered the fewest points and yards in the NFL. Their run defense has looked good, too, holding opposing running backs to 3.5 yards per carry during the last five games. Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown are Ryan Tannehill's two major weapons. The Patriots can afford to bring their safeties into the box to help on Henry because cornerback Stephon Gilmore has the talent cover Brown one-on-one. Gilmore may have been the best defensive player in the NFL this season. Tannehill is unproven in big games such as this. He has a poor record, too, versus defensive guru Bill Belichk with a 4-7 mark, 11 interceptions and a 60.1 percent completion rate. The Titans also are bucking these monster numbers: The Patriots have covered 68 percent of their last 65 home games, are 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff games and are 48-22-1 (69 percent) following a loss.
12-29-19	49ers v. Seahawks +3.5	Top	26-21	Loss	-110	50 h 49 m	Show
Seattle is far more experienced in big prime time game such as this and owns an eight-game win streak against the 49ers. The Seahawks are banged-up defensively, but are getting some of those players back, including Jadeveon Clowney. The 49ers also have key defensive injuries namely Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt. The Seahawks have won a staggering 84 percent of their prime time games under Pete Carroll, including beating the 49ers, 27-24, on the road in a Week 10 Monday night game. The Seahawks have a monster edge at quarterback in a matchup of Russell Wilson versus Jimmy Garoppolo. The Seahawks took care of their injury situation at running back by bringing back Marshawn Lynch. They also have an underrated running back in Travis Homer.
12-29-19	Raiders v. Broncos -3		15-16	Loss	-125	25 h 33 m	Show
Not that the Raiders have any realisticchance for the playoffs, which they will know for sure when the early start time games finish, but they also aren't winning this game even if their morale isn't destroyed by being eliminated. The Broncos have gotten better under first-year coach Vic Fangio and rookie QB Drew Lock, winning three of their last four. Denver has revenge for a 24-16 opening week loss to the Raiders that set a bad tone for the first half of the season. Oakland has been terrible since late November going 1-4 with losses to the Jets, Chiefs, Titans and Jaguars. They have been outscored by 80 points during this span. The weather is expected to be in the 30s, which is bad news for Derek Carr. He's 0-9 the past nine times when playing in temperatures below 50 degrees with a passer rating of 65.9 compared to 94.7 in other games. Running back Josh Jacobs, the Raiders' best skill position player, isn't expected to play either because of a shoulder injury.
12-29-19	Steelers v. Ravens +2		10-28	Win	100	25 h 32 m	Show
Baltimore is going to be resting starters, including Lamar Jackson. But the Ravens still are going to give a strong effort against their long-time hated division rival. Baltimore is riding an 11-game win streak on pace to become the first team in NFL history to average 200 yards both rushing and passing. The Steelers don't have the offense to beat this team on the road. Not with Duck Hodges behind center and missing James Conner and center Maurkice Pouncey. Ravens backup QB, Robert Griffin III, is a much better player than the extremely limited Hodges. Pittsburgh has managed just eight touchdowns on offense during its last seven games. That won't get the job done against a well-coached prideful Ravens team that would rather not enter the playoffs with a loss especially at home where they haven't lost since September.
12-29-19	Packers v. Lions +13.5		23-20	Win	100	21 h 6 m	Show
Green Bay is traveling on a short week after a monster road win on Monday against the Vikings. The Packers simply need to win here not cover a margin. That's what happened in the first meeting when Green Bay was lucky to win at home. The Packers prevailed, 23-22, on a field goal at the gun. Green Bay was the recipient of several gift calls from the officials that aided them in that victory. The Lions will be motivated by revenge and a chance to close the season on a positive note. Having Kerryon Johnson back, their top runner, takes some of the load off David Blough. Green Bay isn't nearly as dominant as its 12-3 record may indicate ranking below average in both yards gained and yards allowed.
12-22-19	Cardinals +10.5 v. Seahawks		27-13	Win	100	66 h 0 m	Show
Should be a great game when the 11-3 49ers meet the 11-3 Seahawks to decide the NFC West Division. Oh wait, that's next week. Seattle can't help but be looking ahead to that crucial matchup. Problem is the Seahawks aren't good enough to cover this high of a number especially in a look-ahead spot. The Seahawks being eight games above .500 doesn't match their statistics and point differential. They have outscored their opponents by just 26 points on the season. Seattle only has 24 sacks, which ranks among the bottom-three. The Seahawks also have half a dozen injuries to key defenders, including underrated free safety Quandre Diggs. He carries a doubtful tag while Seattle's other banged-up defensive players are questionable. The Cardinals are adept offensively. They have scored 25 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. Kyler Murray is a poor man's Russell Wilson. His weapons match the Seahawks especially with Josh Gordon back on suspension and likely done in the NFL, which was a distraction for Seattle this week. The Seahawks have actually played better on the road. They have covered only twice during their last seven home games often overpriced like they are here. Arizona is 8-4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
12-22-19	Panthers v. Colts -6.5		6-38	Win	100	63 h 34 m	Show
Injuries and close decisions that didn't go their way ruined the Colts' season. But Indy is a well-coached solid team that almost always can be counted on to provide a strong effort under Frank Reich. The Colts are committed to finishing their year strong in an effort to reach .500. Not so with the rudderless Panthers. They are set adrift with Ron Rivera gone after nine seasons and playing the worst run defense in the league allowing an average of 6.3 yards per rush during their last three games. Carolina has surrendered at least three touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. That's the longest streak in the NFL. But what clinches this fade on the Panthers is Carolina's decision to start rookie Will Grier at QB. Grier was brutal during preseason with a 2-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and taking seven sacks. He couldn't beat out Kyle Allen to back up Cam Newton and then couldn't replace Allen as Allen kept getting worse and worse. Now the Panthers are in what-the-heck mode turning to Grier for this road start. I would be highly surprised if this turned out to be a positive experience for him and Carolina.
12-15-19	Patriots -9 v. Bengals	Top	34-13	Win	100	73 h 26 m	Show
Can the Patriots be beaten for a third straight game? Can the Bengals pull this off? You have to be kidding. Go back to 2002. That's the last time the Patriots lost three in a row. The Patriots have covered 71 percent of the time off a loss during the last 17 years under Bill Belichick going 41-17. The Patriots' last two losses have come to the Texans and Chiefs. The Bengals have the worst record in the NFL. New England has feasted on bottom-feeders posting seven victories by at least 14 points. Cincinnati is the second-lowest scoring team in the NFL averaging 15.2 points a game. Not once have the Bengals scored more than 23 points in a game. New England has the top defense in the NFL giving up the fewest yards, points and yards per play. Cincinnati also ranks second-to-last in total defense, last in rushing defense and gives up the most yards per play. Tom Brady is far more effective when his ground attack is working. New England isn't going to lack motivation either. Not only do the Patriots need to win to maintain a high playoff seeding, but there is bad blood after the the Bengals brought up a new "Spygate" mention to the attention of the NFL.
12-08-19	Seahawks v. Rams +1		12-28	Win	100	98 h 3 m	Show
Under the right circumstances, Jared Goff is a good quarterback. This is the right spot for Goff. He's home in California and the Seahawks don't generate a strong pass rush. Goff has the necessary weapons to light up the Seahawks' mediocre secondary with four quality wide receivers and Todd Gurley. The Seahawks are traveling on a short week after getting past the Vikings at home this past Monday. The Rams have covered five of the last seven times they've hosted Seattle.
12-08-19	Colts +3 v. Bucs		35-38	Push	0	91 h 52 m	Show
Better team getting points. That's it in a nutshell. The Colts also are getting back their best running back, Marlon Mack, and perhaps their top wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton. The Buccaneers are error-prone offensively with Jameis Winston remaining a model of inconsistency.The Bucs also rank 30th in scoring defense giving up 28.8 points a game. The Colts are much more solid in the trenches, too. Indy is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games. Tampa Bay is 2-5-1 ATS the past eight times as a favorite, including 1-3 ATS this season
12-08-19	Dolphins v. Jets -5		21-22	Loss	-105	91 h 49 m	Show
The warm-weather Dolphins enter New York's December weather fat and happy having just upset the Eagles at home. This is a huge revenge game for Adam Gase against his former team. The Jets got caught peeking ahead to this matchup losing to the previously winless Bengals last Sunday. Expect a much more focused effort by the Jets in this game. Before getting upset by the Bengals, the Jets had reeled off three consecutive victories scoring 34 points in each of those games. If they hadn't lost to the Bengals, the line would be much higher. Now it's less than a touchdown. The Jets have the top run defense in the league. Their offense has much been better skill position people than Miami and their offensive line has showed improvement during the second half of the season.
12-08-19	Bengals +10 v. Browns		19-27	Win	100	91 h 46 m	Show
Cincinnati is bad. Cleveland is dysfunctional. Bottom line is this is too many points in a division rivalry game, especially considering the Browns are without their top defensive player, elite pass rusher Myles Garrett, and Baker Mayfield may not be 100 percent due to a sore throwing hand. The Bengals are consistently undervalued on the road. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 away contests. Cincinnati's confidence gained a huge boost with a victory against the Jets last Sunday. The Bengals can be counted on to give a full effort and their offense is upgraded with Andy Dalton back under center and speedster John Ross off the injured list.
12-05-19	Cowboys -2.5 v. Bears	Top	24-31	Loss	-130	26 h 17 m	Show
The Cowboys are the more well-rounded team with far better skill position talent than the Bears. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot rate major edges on Mitch Trubisky and David Montgomery. The Bears haven't recovered from their London loss to the Raiders. They are 3-5 in their last eight games with their lone victories during this span coming against the Giants and Lions twice. Those teams have a combined record of 5-18. Trubisky has only played well against the Lions. He's been a stiff against every other opponent. Chicago's defense is down from last season and its offense has been hijacked by Trubisky's lack of progress. Chicago's run defense is prey to Elliott likley missing run-stuffing Akiem Hicks and linebacker Danny Trevathan. The Cowboys are the more motivated team. Dallas is that rare team that rates high in both offensive and defensive yards. The Cowboys average the most yards per game in the NFL and they surrender the eighth-fewest yards.
12-01-19	Patriots -3 v. Texans	Top	22-28	Loss	-110	127 h 56 m	Show
The Patriots' defense is putting up numbers not seen since the 2000 Ravens. I don't see the Texans, with their weak offensive line, lack of a ground attack and poor coaching, being able to solve New England's defense. New England is getting better offensively as more offensive linemen and wide receivers get healthy. The Texans have a slow, banged-up secondary and their pass rush took a massive hit with J.J. Watt sidelined for the season. Bill Belichick has had Bill O'Brien's number. The Patriots are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS versus the Texans since 2015. Belichick won't be adverse to running up a score, too. There is bad blood between these two teams after the Patriots filed tampering charges after the Texans tried to lure New England's director of player personnel, Nick Caserio, to be their general manager.
12-01-19	Jets v. Bengals +4		6-22	Win	100	120 h 7 m	Show
The Dolphins scored their first win against the Jets. The winless Bengals can do the same. Cincinnati is much better at QB with Andy Dalton back in the starting role. Left tackle Cordy Glenn is back, too, for Cincinnati to shore up the offensive line. It's an added bonus if A.J. Green finally is ready to make his season debut. The Bengals haven't shown any quit holding the Steelers and Raiders to a combined 33 points the past two weeks, covering both games. Their morale should be up, too, with Dalton back under center. The Jets are in a flat spot traveling after beating up Oakland at home last Sunday. The Jets have won three straight - all against weak opponents in the Giants, Redskins and Raiders with two of those victories coming at home. New York is 1-4 on the road with its lone victory being against the Redskins. The Jets have been outscored by 63 points in their away defeats.
11-28-19	Saints -6.5 v. Falcons	Top	26-18	Win	100	23 h 32 m	Show
The Saints have a legitimate claim to being the best team in the NFC. The Falcons are one of the worst. New Orleans has been great against the spread, too, covering seven of its last nine. One of those non-covers was an embarrassing straight-up home loss to Atlanta from three weeks ago. The Saints were two-touchdown favorites in that game. Now they are just a touchdown favorite. Is the Falcons' home field advantage worth that much? Of course not. The Saints won't have the starting left side of their offensive line with Terron Armstead and Andrus Peat out. But that didn't matter last week when Brees was sacked just twice in 41 dropbacks against the Panthers, who have a stronger pass rush than the Falcons. Brees has a very quick release and tremendous weapons. The Falcons have no answer for Michael Thomas, who is on a record-setting receiving pace. Matt Ryan is dealing with a worse offensive line and is down weapons with Mohamed Sanu traded, Austin Hooper out and backup running back Ito Smith also sidelined. The Falcons probably get back Devonta Freeman, but he's had a disappointing season. Ryan still could be dealing with a sore ankle. He's completed just 57.6 percent of his throws for 6.6 yards per attempt with a three-to-five touchdown-to-turnover ratio during his last four games.
11-28-19	Bills v. Cowboys -6.5		26-15	Loss	-109	51 h 23 m	Show
The visiting team has a huge disadvantage playing on Thursday night especially this late in the season. The Cowboys are the better team and given the situational circumstances, I see Dallas winning by more than a touchdown. Don't be fooled by Buffalo's 8-3 record. It's bogus. The Bills have played opponents whose combined record is 19-53. They haven't faced an offense the caliber of Dallas. The Bills rank third versus the pass, but are just average versus the run. That makes them vulnerable to Ezekiel Elliott. He should be in line for a big game, which in turn would make Dak Prescott very effective picking his spots. Prescott has three quality wideouts plus Elliott out of the backfield catching passes. Buffalo lacks explosiveness on offense to keep up. The Cowboys rank in the top-seven in total defense and scoring defense. They are extremely well-coached on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised to see Josh Allen make a lot of mistakes in this matchup.
11-28-19	Bears -2.5 v. Lions	Top	24-20	Win	100	57 h 14 m	Show
The Bears have been a major disappointment this season. But the Lions are in worse shape. Detroit has dropped four in a row. The teams just met three weeks ago and Chicago won, 20-13. The Lions didn't have Matthew Stafford in that game and they won't have him Thursday. The Lions also aren't going to have second-stringer Jeff Driskel either. Driskel hurt his hamstring in the Lions' loss to the Redskins this past Sunday. So the Lions are forced to turn to rookie David Blough. He's never taken an NFL snap. Hopefully, you locked into this game early in the week like I did in anticipation of upward line movement. Even if you didn't, though, this is a kill spot for the Bears. Their defense should overwhelm the overmatched Blough. Chicago's defense ranks fourth in fewest points allowed and in fewest yards allowed. The Lions' defense, by contrast, ranks 29th in total yards and 26th in scoring defense. The Bears surrender 81 fewer yards per game than the Lions and nine fewer points a game. The Bears' biggest problem is Mitchell Trubisky. He plays well, though, against the Lions. Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns in the earlier victory against the Lions. Trubisky faced the Lions once last season and passed for 355 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-22 win.
11-25-19	Ravens v. Rams +4	Top	45-6	Loss	-115	10 h 14 m	Show
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are a hot commodity. The Rams are struggling to make the playoffs at 6-4. The combination makes the Rams a good value play. LA has the defense, coaching smarts and offense to win this game straight-up. Oh, yes, the situation is perfect for them, too. Jared Goff is a quarterback you don't want to touch on the road especially in cold weather. But he and the Rams offense are a different animal at home especially against a defense that doesn't apply that much quarterback heat. Goff has all his receiving weapons back, too, with deep threat Brandin Cooks expected to play. The Rams have four quality wideouts plus Todd Gurley in the backfield. The Rams defense is strong with Jalen Ramsey shoring up the secondary and Aaron Donald having another dominating season in the trenches. Wade Phillips is in the argument for being the top defensive coordinator in the NFL. This is a unit that can control Jackson.
11-24-19	Steelers v. Bengals +7		16-10	Win	100	92 h 7 m	Show
No, I don't like being on the Bengals. But laying this many points on the road with the punchless Steelers is much worse. Pittsburgh has a strong defense, playoff-caliber. But the Steelers aren't going to reach the postseason because Mason Rudolph is a stiff. Rudolph needs weapons and he's not going to have them here. Center Maurkice Pouncey is suspended. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt's No. 1 wideout by far, is injured and won't play. I doubt James Conner, the Steelers' No. 1 runner, plays either. He missed last week and remains banged-up. Even when they had Ben Roethlisberger healthy, the Steelers still were bad on the road. They are 1-6 in their last seven road games, including 1-3 this season. The Steelers have the lowest road scoring percentage of possessions in the NFL. The Bengals should play hard trying to get their first win, being home and facing a much hated division opponent. So taking this many points looms large especially given the low total in this matchup.

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